Revenue Estimate Performance

December 22, 2017 | Revenue Estimates

This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2017. That time period covers five complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific times during the fiscal year, as required by the statute that created the office.[1] The three revenue estimates are as follows:

  • Official Estimate   This revenue estimate occurs in June of the preceding fiscal year. For example, the IFO official estimate for FY 2016-17 was released on June 15, 2016. When appropriate, the estimate is adjusted for any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. The estimate is released prior to the receipt of all revenues for the fiscal year that precedes the official estimate.

  • Mid-Year Update   This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2016-17 was released on January 25, 2017. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.

  • May Update   This revenue estimate occurs during the first week in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released.

The text that follows discusses the performance of IFO General Fund revenue estimates for the past five fiscal years, and describes the factors that caused forecast errors. As a general rule of thumb, a total forecast error that is within one percentage point of actual revenue collections is considered a solid forecast. For Pennsylvania, a one percent error would imply a roughly $320 million difference from actual revenues.


[1] Although the office also makes revenue projections each November as part of its five-year outlook, those estimates are not included in this document because they are not materially different than the official estimate released in the prior June.

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