IFO Releases
Presentation on Combined Reporting
June 29, 2023 | Economics and Other
Director Matt Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Finance Committee on combined reporting.
Tags: combined, presentation, reporting
What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots?
June 13, 2023 | Economics and Other
The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses the factors that motivate recent record Lottery jackpots for Mega Millions and Powerball and how large jackpots from those two games impact funds for programs the Lottery Fund supports.
Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends
June 12, 2023 | Economics and Other
As part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million.
PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate South
May 03, 2023 | Economics and Other
The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion.
Economic and Budget Update
April 19, 2023 | Economics and Other
The IFO presented an Economic and Budget Update to the PA Motor Truck Association.
Expiration of the Enhanced FMAP
April 06, 2023 | Economics and Other
The IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after.
The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout.
Senate Budget Hearing Request
April 05, 2023 | Economics and Other
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to net migration for Pennsylvania, U3 and U6 unemployment rates, tax burden and labor force participation rates for Pennsylvania and border states, Pennsylvania’s declining workforce and the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit.
State Rainy Day and General Fund Balances
March 24, 2023 | Economics and Other
The IFO posted a new research brief that uses published data from The Pew Charitable Trusts to rank states based on the ratio of (1) Rainy Day Fund balances and (2) Total Balances (Rainy Day plus General Fund) to General Fund expenditures for enacted FY 2022-23 budgets.
Budget Hearing Materials 2023
March 16, 2023 | Economics and Other
The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the Senate Appropriations Committee ahead of its budget hearing. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics.
Economic and Act 1 Index Update
March 16, 2023 | Economics and Other
Director Knittel gave an Economic and Act 1 Index update at the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO) Annual Conference.