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Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

Tags: analysis, pension, sers

analysis of Proposed Changes to State Motor Fuel Taxes

The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Chairman Grove for a static and dynamic analysis of proposed changes to state motor fuel taxes. The proposal would reduce those taxes and replace lost revenues with motor vehicle sales and use taxes.

01/26/2023

Summary and analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

12/01/2022

Property Tax Burden by County

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 

09/06/2022

Student Loan Debt Forgiveness

The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.

08/31/2022

Pennsylvania's Gasoline Tax

The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285.

06/13/2022

Financial Impact of SERS Pre-Funding Option

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021.

06/09/2022

Property Tax Replacement Estimates

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13.

05/19/2022

analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2022-23 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

04/08/2022

Act 25 of 2011 analysis

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates the potential reduction in property taxes due to Act 25 of 2011.

02/16/2022

COVID-19 IMPACT ON PENNSYLVANIA DEATHS

This research updates a prior release (September 2021) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. The analysis finds 19,800 excess deaths in 2020 and estimates 18,900 excess deaths for 2021. 

02/11/2022

STATE AND LOCAL TAX REVENUES: A 50 STATE COMPARISON

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

01/19/2022

COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths

This research brief uses preliminary data for 2020 and 2021 (through September) to compute excess deaths above pre-COVID historical trends in the Commonwealth for those two years. The analysis finds 20,700 excess deaths in 2020 and projects 6,700 excess deaths for 2021.

09/30/2021

UGSOA Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the United Government Security Officers of America (UGSOA).

09/27/2021

Property Tax Burden by County

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 

08/25/2021

analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2021-22 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

04/22/2021

State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

11/24/2020

UGSOA Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the United Government Security Officers of America (UGSOA).

11/12/2020

Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion.  This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.  

10/13/2020

PSEA Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania State  Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Unit.

07/02/2020

Economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics

As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products.

06/30/2020

PSCOA Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association (PSCOA).

06/26/2020

SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Unit Wage Contract analysis

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 668 Unemployment Compensation (UC) Referees.

05/07/2020

analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”

04/23/2020

Family First Prevention Services Act Preliminary analysis

In response to a legislative request, the IFO conducted a preliminary analysis on the state and county impacts of the Family First Prevention Services Act.

03/04/2020

CIVEA Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Correctional Vocational Education Association (CIVEA).

02/27/2020

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

01/29/2020

ALES Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Association of Liquor Enforcement Officers (ALES).

11/06/2019

OPEIU Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU).

11/06/2019

PDA Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Doctors Alliance (PDA).

11/06/2019

SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare.

11/06/2019

PLEA Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Liquor Enforcement Association (PLEA).

10/11/2019

FOSCEP Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP).

10/11/2019

Minimum Wage Increase Estimates

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that expands upon a prior analysis on the impact of a proposed minimum wage increase.

10/10/2019

Management and Non-Represented Wage Contract analysis

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued a cost analysis that assumes management and non-represented employees will receive salary increases consistent with the new collective bargaining agreements.

09/25/2019

ISSU Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Independent State Stores Union (ISSU).

09/13/2019

Property Tax Rent Rebate Program

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate Program. Note: This analysis was originally posted on May 15, 2019. The analysis was reposted on September 12, 2019 to reflect technical adjustments made by the IFO based on research cited in the footnotes of the updated analysis.  

09/12/2019

Property Tax Rebate for Older Homeowners

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis of a proposed property tax rebate for older homeowners based on various levels of household income.

09/12/2019

UFCW Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and UFCW.

08/13/2019

SEIU Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and SEIU.

08/13/2019

AFSCME Wage Contract analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and AFSCME.

08/13/2019

analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."  

03/22/2019

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) state tax rates and (4) state debt levels.

12/03/2018

Federal Tax Code Conformity analysis

The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the General Fund revenue impact from conformity with certain federal tax code provisions.

04/27/2018

analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/18/2018

Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction

The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. 

04/11/2018

IFO Update on Selected Fiscal Topics and Pennsylvania Demographics

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) Pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017. 

03/09/2018

UGSOA Wage Contract analysis

Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act.

03/08/2018

ALES Wage Contract analysis

Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act.

02/16/2018

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

02/01/2018

School Property Taxes; Households Age 60, 65 and 70 or Older

In response to a legislative request, the IFO analyzed data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate the share of school property taxes paid by households in which the householder (or spouse, if applicable) had attained the ages 60 or over, 65 or over and 70 or over. The analysis applies the shares derived from the ACS to estimated school district property tax collections attributable to homestead properties for FY 2015-16 to further estimate the dollar amounts paid by such households.

12/11/2017

PDA Wage Contract analysis

Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Doctors Alliance (PDA).

10/02/2017

Like-Kind Exchange analysis

The IFO responds to a request regarding the economic benefit and tax revenue impact from eliminating Pennsylvania personal income tax on like-kind exchanges.

07/10/2017

PLEA Wage Contract analysis

Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Liquor Enforcement Association (PLEA).

07/05/2017

analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017)

04/05/2017

Horse Racing analysis

Act 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to JSGC (March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017)

03/13/2017

Philadelphia Cigarette & Beverage Tax Impact

The IFO responds to a request regarding the impact of Philadelphia’s local cigarette and beverage taxes on state revenue collections. The letter has been revised to include current footnotes 3 and 6, which provide additional context for the assumptions used by the analysis.  (Revised on March 20, 2017)

03/13/2017

ISSU & PSSU Wage Contracts analysis

Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the following unions: Independent State Stores Union (ISSU) Pennsylvania Social Services Union (PSSU), Hearing Officers

03/08/2017

PFBC Wage Contract analysis

Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act.

02/02/2017

analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements

Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the following six unions: Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA) Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania PA State Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW)

01/12/2017

Updated School District Property Tax Forecast

Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast.

01/09/2017

AFSCME Wage Contract analysis

Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act.

09/27/2016

SEIU Wage Contract analysis

Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act.

09/27/2016

analysis of Executive Order 2016-02

Letter responding to a request from Representatives Gingrich and Grove to examine the fiscal implications of Executive Order 2016-02 (May 2016).

05/12/2016

analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/21/2016

Shared-Risk Pension analysis

This letter provides a statutorily required report analyzing the implementation of the shared-risk pension provisions introduced by Act 120 of 2010.

12/18/2015

Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania

This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of the proposal to 1) raise the Pennsylvania state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and 2) automatically adjust future minimum wage levels to offset inflation.

11/30/2015

analysis of a Statewide Financial Transactions Tax

Letter discussing issues that should be considered when evaluating a potential state-level tax on the transfer of securities (May 2015). The office was asked to discuss the viability of the tax and identify any benefits or detriments associated with it. 

05/15/2015

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

The report examines how Pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis to make comparisons.

03/30/2015

Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison

This report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections)

03/17/2014

analysis of House Bill 1693 (2013)

Letter providing data on the share of residential and nonresidential property assessments by county (December 2013). The letter was in response to a request regarding HB 1693, which was a proposed constitutional amendment permitting different millage rates for residential and nonresidential property.  

12/17/2013

analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older

Letter providing an analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older (October 2013). The analysis presents a preliminary assessment of data on the cost of a school property tax freeze for those homeowners and a brief discussion of factors that affect the cost of a freeze over the long-term.

10/29/2013

analysis of Proposal to Replace School Property Taxes: House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76

This report presents the results from an analysis of House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76 performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The proposed legislation eliminates local school district property taxes and replaces those funds with sales and use and personal income taxes, as well as monies redirected from the Property Tax Relief Fund. Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee on 10/15/2013. Data for the graphs in section 4 of the report that display the annual and cumulative changes in personal income, sales and school property tax collections. Introduction, which contains summary results from the report.

10/01/2013

analysis of Michigan Property Tax Reform

This report presents the results from an analysis of the Michigan property tax reform known as Proposal A. Enacted in 1994, Proposal A replaced all local property taxes used for school operating purposes with higher sales and use, realty transfer and tobacco taxes. It also created a distinction between homestead and nonhomestead property to facilitate the statewide levy of uniform property taxes on those classes of property. The report makes extensive use of data published by various Michigan executive and legislative agencies to illustrate the impact of property tax reform on tax revenues, millage rates, per pupil funding levels and the property tax base over the past two decades.

09/16/2013

Uncapping the Film Production Tax Credit: A Fiscal and Economic analysis

This report presents the results of an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on the fiscal and economic impacts of eliminating the cap on Pennsylvania’s film production tax credit (FPTC). The report also considers stand-alone tax credits for post-production and digital interactive media services.

05/31/2013

Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 through CY 2024

Estimates toll revenues collected by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission (PTC) through calendar year 2024. The scope of this analysis is limited to forecasting toll revenues; it does not address other revenues remitted to the PTC nor does it address the general fiscal condition of the PTC.

05/28/2013

An analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania

Estimates the fiscal and economic impact of expanding Medicaid (Medical Assistance) under the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). The scope of the analysis is limited to the impact of Medicaid expansion; it does not address the costs, savings or economic effects of the ACA generally.

04/22/2013

Corporate Tax Base Erosion: analysis of Policy Options

analysis of the policies that states have used to preserve or expand the corporate tax base. The report focuses on two particular base retention or expansion policies: combined reporting and expense addbacks.

03/04/2013

Proposed Sales Tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair

analysis of a proposed sales and use tax exemption for purchases of fixed-wing aircraft, parts and maintenance, repair and overhaul services.

01/04/2013

ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

accelerate payments applied to its unfunded accrued liability. See pages 2 to 7 for a summary of the legislation. The analysis of the proposal is summarized below. Impacts are presented in nominal dollars (cash flow) and present values computed at a of $3.0 billion on a cash flow basis). A01354 and A01558 to SB 1 8 Independent Fiscal Office Bill Analysis Actuarial Cost Impact Milliman submitted the attached actuarial note after reviewing Amendments 01354 and 01558 to Senate Bill 1, Printer

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling & Development Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions blank. - Staff Acknowledgements The IFO acknowledges the following staff for their work on this report: Kathleen Hall, Revenue Analyst II Ms. Hall joined the IFO in May 2019. Primary responsibilities include forecasting corporate net income tax revenues, business- and economic-related

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions 1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 22, 2019 This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released in February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 23, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released in February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 May 28, 2013 To: The Honorable Senator John C. Rafferty This report presents the results from an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to estimate toll revenues collected by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission (PTC) through calendar

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions Administration and Implementation .................................................................................................. 7 Historical HPTC Data ....................................................................................................................... 9 Section 3: State Tax Credit Comparison ................................................................................ 11 Section 4: Economic Analysis and Issues............................................................................... 15 Technical Issues That Affect Economic Impact ................................................................................ 15 Two State Comparisons Using Federal Tax Credit Data .................................................................... 18 Modest Tax Credit

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 April 17, 2018 This document provides an analysis of the tax proposals included in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released in February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) pub- lishes

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions and Development Spending Trends .................................................................................. 16 Research and Development Employment Trends ............................................................................. 17 State Comparison Summary ........................................................................................................... 19 Section 4: Economic Analysis ................................................................................................. 21 Key Findings from RDTC Studies .................................................................................................... 21 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 23 Analysis Caveats............................................................................................................................ 27 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 29 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 29

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions and universities facilitates the exchange of ideas and increases innovation, which can further stimulate the state economy. This analysis examines these and other issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania KIZ Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions wages to non-residents and some recipients would film in the state regardless of the tax credit. This analysis examines these and other issues that affect the net economic return of the FPTC. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions To: The Honorable David G. Argall and The Honorable Peter Daley This report presents the results from an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) of a proposed Sales and Use Tax (SUT) exemption for purchases of fixed-wing aircraft

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions on the affected population and (2) the impact of the direct capital investment on the state economy. This analysis examines the issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania MTBI Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

Background  The analysis was consistent with the mission of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO).  The IFO cannot comment on whether policy is good /bad or better/worse than current law.  The report provides a general framework for analysis of the proposal. The IFO defers to the committees of the General Assembly for further analysis of the fiscal and

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions 1 Includes adjustments for field paid prizes and commissions. FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 4 Analysis of Statutes Affecting Revenues The Official Revenue Estimate for FY 2019-20 published by the IFO on June 21, 2019 does not

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions the absence of the credit. Put another way, how much job creation does the program actually incentivize? This analysis examines this and other issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania JCTC. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

The Retirement Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 – Socially Responsible Investing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 – Divestment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 – Recent Divestment Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Part III. Divestment Bill Review and Analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 – Bill Review House Bill Number 1140, Printer’s Number 2190 . . . . . . . . 13 – Bill Review House Bill Number 1085, Printer’s Number 1257, and House Bill Number 1087, Printer’s Number 1259 . . . . . . . . 18 – Bill Analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Part IV. Policy Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 – Departure from Current Practice Regarding Restrictive Investment Mandates . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 – Fiduciary Duties of Pension Plan

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TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us General Findings and Recommendations | Page 2 - This page intentionally left blank. - General that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The IFO initially released this analysis as a research brief in April 2021. Since that release, the IFO was notified of a new recipient (two total

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RB-2017-5.pdf

State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Responsiveness of Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction This analysis responds to a request submitted by a member of the General Assembly to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The analysis compares the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth

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SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf

summarizes the results, including a calculation of projected employer contributions to pro- jected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of the General Assembly. The contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - SERS Stress Test Impact Analysis | Page 1 SERS Stress Test Impact Analysis Introduction Act 128 of 2020 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to summarize

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

IFO | APRIL 2018 1 INTRODUCTION In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) undertook an analysis of state corporate net income tax (CNIT) rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate to a rank of 40 out of the 44 states that levy a CNIT. Based on the request, this analysis contains five sections. The first section discusses changes in state CNIT rates during the past five years and changes scheduled

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RB-2015-04.pdf

to $10.10 and (2) automatically adjusts future minimum wage levels to offset in Ðlation. This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of that proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the number

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and and enters its ninth year of operation. The office currently employs 13 staff: 3 managers, 1 office manager and 9 analysts. The FY 2020-21 Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.34 million for the office. That amount includes $200

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

the Department of Corrections will be submitted to the Appropriations Committees for these budget hearings. Second, the office published cost analyses of nine proposed collective bargaining agreements pursuant to Act 14 of 2016. Finally, the office is responsible for coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans pursuant to Act 100 of

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

the Department of Corrections will be submitted to the Appropriations Committees for these budget hearings. Second, the office published cost analyses of nine proposed collective bargaining agreements pursuant to Act 14 of 2016. Finally, the office is responsible for coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans pursuant to Act 100 of

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research and enters its seventh year of operation. The office currently employs 10 staff: 3 managers, 1 office manager and 6 analysts. The FY 2018‐19 Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.226 million for the office. That amount includes $200

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions through fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the analysis projects a deficit for the current fiscal year that is carried forward to future years and results in a structural imbalance. From

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic Outlook | Page 3 Table 1.2 displays the U.S. economic forecast from the

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year. The analysis excludes other important local revenue sources (e.g., realty transfer taxes, occupational taxes and various fees) because the Independent Fiscal local detail to facilitate projections at the municipal or school district level and much of the data used for this analysis are only published at the county level. The analysis uses two distinct time frames based on the local unit impacted

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic Outlook | Page 3 Overall, the IFO forecast assumes a relatively quick recovery from the

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

informational hearing. The IFO was created by Act 120 of 2010 to provide revenue projections and other budget and economic analysis to the General Assembly and the public. The office currently has 10 staff, including myself. I was originally appointed in year. Each year, we typically receive a number of requests from members of the General Assembly for economic or budgetary analysis. Whenever possible, we work with members to craft a response that will be informative and useful. If reliable data are

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market to 10% of contributions to offset administrative or other costs and Pennsylvania has the highest allow- ance at 20%. This analysis examined available data and other issues that impact the effectiveness of the Educational Tax Credits. The IFO welcomes all questions

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Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf

Office (IFO) Mark J. Ryan Deputy Director July 29, 2018  IFO work involving stress testing is connected to its analysis of pension-related legislation.  No analysis without legislative proposal changing pensions.  Based on the statutory mandate for a “risk transfer analysis.”  Implementation fits within

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

cost estimates are broken out by type of funding (state, federal or September 23, 2019 Page 2 lottery funds). This analysis does not include any state or federal expenditures for non-Medicaid programs without age restrictions (e.g., public safety, state are state funds for the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and state employee pension and retiree healthcare benefits. The analysis estimates that total senior program spending for all funds was $7.46 billion in FY 2017- 18, and is projected

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TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst

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Independent Fiscal Office

Independent Fiscal Office IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Independent Fiscal Office Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Natural Gas Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases January 2023 Revenue Update Revenue & Economic Update February research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child. ... (Full Report) Analysis of Proposed Changes to State Motor Fuel Taxes Economics and Other January 26, 2023 The IFO published a letter in

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

plans and reviews. The IFO also prepares monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinates analyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research and enters its eighth year of operation. The office currently employs 11 staff: 3 managers, 1 office manager and 7 analysts. The FY 2019-20 Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.293 million for the office. That amount includes $200

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions Due to rounding, detail may not sum to total. FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 4 Analysis of Statutes Affecting Revenues The Official Revenue Estimate for FY 2021-22 published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 excludes the

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth and the

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TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

were published November 2017 and September 2019. 1 This letter uses the same data sources and methodologies used in those analyses to provide updated estimates. The updated tables are as follows. Table 1 provides the latest IFO baseline for school district Military and Veterans Affairs. The cost estimates are broken out by type of funding (state, federal or lottery funds). This analysis does not include any state or federal expenditures for non-Medicaid programs without age restrictions (e.g., public safety, state

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the economic impact due to the transfer of funds directly to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups 000; (2) $25,000 to $49,999; (3) $50,000 to $99,999 and (4) $100,000 or more. The analysis also includes an itemization of the federal monies disbursed directly to state residents since the onset of the COVID-19

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst

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About IFO

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions State Universities and published several articles in the National Tax Journal, the NBER and US Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis working paper series. Brenda Warburton Deputy Director Prior to joining the IFO, Ms. Warburton held several positions related to state

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Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The attached table provides a summary of the analysis for the

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Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The attached table provides a summary of the analysis for the

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

of debt limit changes to the program.  A discussion of the potential economic impact to local units.  An analysis of the potential fiscal impact from the proposed debt limit reduction.  A comparison to similar programs and total debt Office Page 4 Economic Impact Due to the extensive nature of the program (over 2,900 grants since inception), the analysis limits its focus to grants made since 2015. For this purpose grants are assigned to a specific category because each

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements, dynamic modeling, and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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TC_2022_Brewers.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 Brewers’ Tax Credit Overview ................................................................................................... 5 Goals and Purpose .......................................................................................................................... 5 Administration ................................................................................................................................. 6 Historical Data ................................................................................................................................ 6 State Comparisons .................................................................................................................. 11 Economic Analysis ................................................................................................................... 13 Tax Credit Plan ........................................................................................................................ 15 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 15 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 15 Key Decision Points ....................................................................................................................... 16 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 16 Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 17 Performance-

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State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty

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SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling & Development Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue

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MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf

Browne: Thank you for your July 15 th letter that requests the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to prepare a cost analysis that assumes all management and non-represented employees will receive salary increases consistent with the new collective bargaining agreements. For the purpose of this analysis, the IFO applied the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) ratified contract to all full-time, permanent

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ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

prepared by the Independent Fiscal Office February 7, 2014 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 IFO Reports and Analyses 2 Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 served as director since the inception of the office in September 2011, and currently he supervises a staff of eight. Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2014-15 Executive Budget proposes an

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ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and

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Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdf

Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employee Relations Act. The IFO submits this analysis to the General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth

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SR2017-03.pdf

state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. For this analysis, the term “tax burden” equals the ratio of tax revenues to state personal income. Although the term “tax burden” is transfer income (e.g., Social Security, various medical and income maintenance benefits). Similar to other published tax burden studies, the analysis includes certain adjustments to state personal income as computed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 The analysis

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Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf

you for your recent letter that requests the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide additional data on the minimum wage analysis included in the Analysis of Revenue Proposals published by the office in March 2019. Your letter requests additional detail regarding the net wage gains

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling & Development

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions for the current fiscal year and subsequent fiscal year. Other Services When possible, the IFO also provides economic and revenue analysis to members of the General Assembly. The office does not intend to duplicate services provided by the standing committees, but

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

actions that the General Assembly could consider, and identify the most likely consequences of those actions. It is not an analysis of any specific proposal, but seeks to provide a reference tool for those with the responsibility to deal with this undertaken. It does not provide the detail of an actuarial note on specific legislation, but does set forth a general analysis of the various reforms that are available. The only limitations are those imposed by constitutional law and budgetary realities. II

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

of Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Approaches . . . . . 3 Description of Pennsylvania’s Current Public Employee Retirement Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Part II – Analysis Requested in House Resolution No. 266 Resolution Objective No. 1 – Benefit Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Resolution Objective No. 2 – Cost Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 are selected and approved by the State System of Higher Education (SSHE) through a request-for-proposal process. PART II ANALYSIS REQUESTED IN HOUSE RESOLUTION NO. 266 -11- Resolution Objective No. 1 – Benefit Comparison “Projections of comparative benefits under the current

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

throughout the economy. The additional $1.20 of spending activity reflects the impact of the indirect and induced spending. This analysis uses multipliers computed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis based on input-output data for 2007 and local industry data from 2015 (RIMS II, Type 2 multipliers). 6 The

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

OF CONTENTS v The Public Employee Retirement Commission was established by Act 66 of 1981 to conduct actuarial and policy analyses of proposed legislation affecting public employee retirement systems in the Commonwealth, to administer the actuarial reporting and funding requirements for the full cost of the coverage by the PEBTF. 5 PART II PROJECTED COST IMPACT -15- Purpose and Scope of Analysis House Resolution Number 161 directed the Commission to prepare a study on the feasibility and practicability of providing State premium

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions trends for recent quarters based on the latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The trends reveal the recent mod- eration in the Pennsylvania labor market as the pace

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf

2,000, respectively in each proposal.  Total rebates may not exceed property tax paid. Based on these parameters, the analysis finds the following results for increasing the supplemental rebate to $1,500:  The new base rebate for household incomes in rebates paid under the $1,500 supplemental rebate proposal would be $471.4 million. Based on these parameters, the analysis finds the following results for increasing the supplemental rebate to $2,000:  The new base rebate for household incomes

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

counties and the rest of the state for the most recent eight-year period that data are available. 2 The analysis estimates that natural gas royalty payments totaled $905 million in tax year 2010, peaked at $1.62 billion in tax 2 The potential magnitude of the understatement cannot be estimated based on available data. As discussed in the methodology, the analysis does include adjustments for non-compliance and counties that have relatively small amounts of production. For tax year 2018, the

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Kathleen Hall, Modeling and Development Analyst II Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Kathleen Hall, Modeling and Development Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: khall@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions trends for recent quarters based on the latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The trends reveal the recent mod- eration in the Pennsylvania labor market as the pace

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IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf

average retail gasoline price of $3.75 and diesel price of $5.50 per gallon for FY 2022-23. The analysis assumes that both prices increase by 5 cents per annum. Due to the lower price per gallon from the proposal, the analysis applies a gasoline/diesel fuel price elasticity of -0.3 so that consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel increases by

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County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf

This research brief estimates the total 2019 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of All Property Tax Burden by County School Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Technical Detail This analysis uses two data sources for the county-level income metric: the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the

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TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market In other states, the tax credit is available directly to the developer to offset a share of project costs. This analysis examined available data and other issues that determine the effectiveness of the Mixed-Use De- velopment Tax Credit. The IFO

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

of income received by Pennsylvania residents. Retirement (pensions, IRA disbursements) and transfer (Social Security) income are not shown because the analysis IFO Gov. Budget Office Official Mid-Year Change Official Budget Change General Fund $35,518 $35,738 $220 $35,497 effects. 5 However, in this instance, the direct and multiplier effects of many federal provisions were not included in the analysis and would likely be muted for several reasons:  For many recipients, the UC payments will facilitate the purchase of

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PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market New Jersey offer tax credits for contributions to certain nonprofit economic development organizations, but waterfront properties are not targeted. This analysis examined available program data and other relevant factors to assess the effectiveness of the WDTC program. The IFO welcomes all

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TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market in renewable energy or alternative fuels). Pennsylvania currently has one ethylene cracker plant that began operation in November 2022. This analysis examines available data and issues that may determine the effectiveness of the PRM Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions outcomes. Data from U.S. CDC. Latest data available. 11 Calendar year basis. Data from Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the U.S. CDC's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013-2017 Survey Results. Notes: 1 Funds used for the

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions and Xpress Sports are not reflected in this table. FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 4 Analysis of Statutes Affecting Revenues The Official Revenue Estimate for FY 2018-19 published by the IFO on June 18, 2018 does not

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IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf

Employment Opportunity Independent Fiscal Office Analyst The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is accepting applications to fill an analyst position. The IFO is a non-partisan, independent agency created to provide objective and timely analysis to the General Assembly

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions wages incurred by the donor. Unfortunately, these state incentive programs do not appear to be widely utilized. This analysis examines these and other issues in evaluating the effectiveness of the OBMD. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

American Community Survey (ACS) for 2012 and 2018. Although data prior to the 2008-09 Great Recession were available, the analysis did not use those data in order to exclude the significant impact from that downturn, and to limit the focus for the lower income group, and to a lesser extent, the middle income group. To control for changing demographics, the analysis examined two age cohorts. The first cohort is primary householders age 30 to 39 in 2012. The analysis then examined

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Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf

S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) and previous research by the IFO on school district property taxes, the analysis finds the following: 2  There are 3.4 million properties in Pennsylvania that would qualify as homestead properties. 3 school district property taxes paid capped at the statewide average is $5.20 billion. 1 Includes farmstead properties. 2 The analysis uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 ACS 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) dataset. 3 The analysis

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

tax.  Focus on wage growth. August.08.2018 2 Good Morning & Today’s Presentation Established in 2011. Non-partisan analysis.  Modeled after the Congressional Budget Office.  Separate from Executive and Legislative branches. Various mandatory duties.  General Fund revenue estimates.  Coordinate pension analysis. Analyze wage contracts.  Develop Performance-Based Budget plans for agencies. Things the office does not do:  Make policy

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Admin., Federal Housing Finance Agency. Change in Payroll Employment (000s 4% 4.3% All Other Sectors 7.1% 4.4% -11.5% -4.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 6.16D. Financials excludes Federal Reserve. Includes C and S corporations. Budget Update  Consensus: potential deficit of

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PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions 8.2 percent per annum, while the average rate of destruction was 7.6 percent per annum. Some analysts believe that a higher rate of business churn is an indicator of a healthier, more vibrant state economy. The second group of

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions Due to rounding, detail may not sum to total. FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 4 Analysis of Statutes Affecting Revenues The Official Revenue Estimate for FY 2020-21 published by the IFO on June 22, 2020 includes the

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

recovered). Pennsylvanians Received Over $25 Billion in Unemployment Benefits Since March On August 11, the Wall Street Journal released an analysis of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) program. From early April to July 31, the federal government spent nearly $250 is visible in the U.S. personal income data for 2020 Q2 published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Despite wages and salaries falling by 7.1% from 2020 Q1, personal income grew 7.3% in 2020 Q2 due

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

Budget Office Presentation for the Independent Fiscal Office, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2018 Jeffrey Kling Associate Director for Economic Analysis Transparency at CBO For more information, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update on Transparency at CBO (August 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/54372. 1 CBO  Enhance the credibility of its work  Promote a thorough understanding of its analyses  Help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances were different CBO’s Goals in Being

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Introduction to Independent Fiscal Office (IFO).  Who we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept   Special studies on revenues or expenditures.  Joint Committee on Taxation.  “Scoring” of changes to tax policy.  Analysis of various tax code provisions. 10.Jul.2012 2 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Staff  Office currently has nine staff

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RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf

It is noted that these results are subject to revision as additional data are released. The IFO will update this analysis when full data for calendar year 2021 become available. Table 1 displays final Pennsylvania death data prior to the onset week occurs for the remainder of the year. To compute additional deaths that may be due to COVID-19, the analysis removes five categories that are not directly related to COVID-19 (but may be indirectly related) and can be readily

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions 1 Does not include adjustments for field paid prizes and commissions. Independent Fiscal Office Page 7 Appendix: Fiscal Analysis of Statutes Affecting Revenues The Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 16, 2014 does not include the

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

School district reliance on property tax.  Compare PA and US average state-local tax structures. Next: Consider our last analysis: SB 76 of 2013. Conclude: Consider current proposal and forecasts. 1/19/2017 2 FY14-15 School District Revenues 1 of one-time escheats gains and a $227 million transfer. Sources: US Census Bureau (tax revenues), US Bureau of Economic Analysis (personal income). Data for FY 2013-14 and FY 2014-15. Ratio: State and Local Taxes / State Personal Income Last

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Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf

This research brief estimates the total 2020 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of County (2020) Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Technical Detail This analysis uses two data sources for the county-level income metric: the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Pennsylvania Data User Conference May 12, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey; Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, Center for Workforce Information & Analysis. 15 PA Labor Force Participation Rates 12.May.2016 +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income. • Nearly 20%

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PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions these data may not sum to totals due to rounding. 3 For example, some states use cost-benefit analyses, such as the Pew Charitable Trusts Results First model. The Justice Reinvestment Initiative | Page 3 The Justice Reinvestment Initiative Extensive research demonstrates

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Who we are. ◦ Established September 2011; 10 staff, but expanding. ◦ Like the Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining agreements. ◦ Special studies at request of General Assembly. Dec.13.2017 2 A Unique State Office Structured

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

PA Ranks 19 th in Real GDP Growth for 2018 Q1 On July 24, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for 2018 Q1. The data show that Penn- sylvania ranked 19 th in real GDP growth was 2.0%. New Tariffs Have Disparate Impacts on PA Counties On July 6, the Wall Street Journal published an analysis based on a report from Moody’s that computes the impact of new U.S. and Chinese tariffs. The analysis

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

likelihood of becoming a business with payroll employees, are 8.3% higher than the same week in 2019. A WSJ analysis suggests that this could signal optimism about future business conditions, or could be a result of people entering the gig billion (2018). U.S. Personal Income Expands in 2020 Q2 On August 28, 2020 the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released personal income data for 2020 Q2. Compared to the prior year, data show that U.S. personal income grew

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

September 2019. Pennsylvania Personal Income Grows by 12.0% in Q2 On September 24, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data for 2020 Q2. Pennsylvania personal income grew 12.0% in the second quarter compared Domestic Product (GDP) fell 34.0% in 2020 Q2, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 2. National real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.4%, contracting in all 50 states

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

Items Less Energy index increased by 2.7%. However, the All Items Less Shelter index was up 5.0%. Many analysts have noted a disconnect between the Shelter (i.e., housing) index used in the CPI-U computation (most is imputed the state economy received a significant boost from the latest round of federal stimulus. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has not released state-level data on personal income, but adjusted withholding trends can be used to provide a

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

years of benefit payments on hand. Nationally, public market fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic have heavily impacted pension returns. Analysis from Milliman in April showed that during 2020 Q1 the top 100 public pension plans in the nation saw the on three economic recovery forecasts (same pattern as the Great Recession, twice as fast or four times as fast). The analysis finds for the United States, the number of additional deaths of despair attributable to the COVID-19 Recession could be

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

regions. U.S. Personal Income Records Strong Growth in April On May 29, 2020 the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released personal income statistics for April 2020. Compared to the prior year, data show that U.S. personal income grew tracked for a sample of consumers (approximately 16,000 recipients) after receipt of the $1,200 (or more) payment. The analysis found that average consumer spending increased by $577 two weeks following the deposit, indicating a marginal propensity to consume (MPC

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf

sales for the Philadelphia metro region. Due to the build up of savings and significant expansion of the money supply, analysts anticipate continued strong consumer demand through the spring. Chairman Powell testified that the Federal Reserve is reconsidering its schedule for is demand deposits. Natural gas price is $/MMBtu. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, EIA, NAR, Federal Reserve Board. Monthly Data Jul-21 Aug-21 Sept-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Unemployment Rate 1

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

rather than a rebound from the previous summer (prices fell just 3.3% from July 2019 to July 2020). Recently, analysts’ attention has turned to two housing categories: Rent of Primary Residence (+1.9%) and Owner’s Equivalent Rent of Primary recently reported that U.S. new car sales are subsiding due to supply constraints and low inventories. Moving forward, industry analysts project that car prices will remain elevated, but sales will continue to soften as supply fails to keep up with

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf

of challenges, and recession in the next couple of years is clearly more likely than not….” As noted by Summers, analysts generally cite three factors that are causing high inflation: (1) overstimulation of demand, largely from the American Rescue Plan; (2 costs across all sectors, this outcome makes it more likely that a slowdown may be necessary to reduce inflation. Some analysts project a “growth recession,” where the economy does not contract, but expands only at a modest rate. Monthly Economic Update

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Letter_to_JSGC.pdf

various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. Based on discussions with your office, the IFO agreed to provide technical analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the this letter. Based on these unauthorized alterations, the IFO has reservations regarding the provision of future technical assistance or economic analysis. The IFO cannot stand behind the final product if its submissions are altered without consent, consultation or notice. As a

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions The Pennsylvania economic forecast is based on the latest data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through October 23, 2020. All forecasts in this section are by the IFO. Pennsylvania

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Supply non-partisan analysis. • No governing board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at request of General Assembly.  Office makes NO policy recommendations. February 28, 2017 2

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions Acknowledgements The Independent Fiscal Office acknowledges the following staff for their work on this report: Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Ms. Maynard joined the IFO in March 2012. Primary responsibilities include leading various performance- based budgeting projects, coordinating the forecast of

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

might enroll? – Who are the newly eligible? – What are the administrative costs? – What are the economic benefits & savings? 11 For analysis and links to tools, see: Medicaid Expansion: Sizing up Coverage in States http://www.statereforum.org/weekly- insight/medicaid-expansion- Tools to help decide • State-run, partnership, or federally run? • Governance? • Financing? • Plan management strategy? • Consumer assistance plan? 14 For analysis and links to tools, see: State Health Reform Assistance Network resources http://www.statenetwork.org/resources/ Big Decision #3: Essential

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions and (4) the historical tax burden for Pennsylvania over the last two decades. For the purposes of this analysis, “tax burden” equals the ratio of tax revenues to state personal income. Tax revenues include levies by state and local governments. Measuring

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REU-2019-10.pdf

Real GDP growth decelerated slightly due to weak business investment.  Pennsylvania retail sales showed exceptional strength in October. Some analysts believe this may be driven in part by a significant increase in home refinancings in recent months. Sources and notes of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf

ranging from $675 to $1,000.  Total rebates may not exceed property tax paid. Based on these parameters, the analysis finds the following results:  The new base rebate for household incomes between $35,000 and $50,000 would result base rebate based on income and age, but PTRR data suggest that approximately 60 percent of eligible homeowners filed. The analysis assumes that 61,000 (40 percent) of the homeowners eligible for the new base rebate will file for a rebate

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RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf

presents estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model on the federal budget impact. For federal fiscal year (FFY) 2022, the analysis estimates the following costs to the federal government: $469 billion for loan forgiveness, $16 billion for the forbearance extension through December 2022 and $42 billion for 1 This summary is from the Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis at https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2022/8/26/biden-student-loan-forgiveness. 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2022-

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office July 14, 2017 7/14/2017 1 Independent Fiscal Office Non-partisan fiscal and budgetary analysis.  Began operations in September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Office does not make policy recommendations  Revenue projections: May 1 and June 15.  Analyze fiscal impact of state employee wage contracts.  Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 7

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

1 Note: Includes all primary and secondary jobs, all full- and part-time. Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: "Analysis of Revenue Proposals," IFO (March 2019). Projected Employment Impact (2018) May 1, 2019 9 Lower Upper % Change Avg Wage # Jobs 137 -0.2 Total 641 -25.6 470 -8.6 Total Part- and Full-Time 1,110 -34.2 Source: "Analysis of Revenue Proposals," IFO (March 2019). Projected Annual Income Impact (2018) May 1, 2019 10 Lower Upper Total Gain ($ million

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions those data may not sum to totals due to rounding. 3 For example, some states use cost-benefit analyses, such as the Pew Charitable Trusts Results First model. The Justice Reivenstment Initiative | Page 3 The Justice Reinvestment Initiative Extensive research demonstrates

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Economy League MAY 19, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. 19.May.2017 Independent

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2020, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax year 2018 and 2019 liabilities. Projections of tax liability are then made for tax

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2019, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax year 2017 and 2018 liabilities. Projections of tax liability are then made for tax

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

6% 12.2% Dollar amounts are in millions. MONTHLY TRENDS AUGUST 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), “Analysis of Over- dose Deaths in Pennsylvania, 2016,” July 27, 2017. 2 IFO calculation based on DEA data. 3 CNN Money the Workers Gone?” October 4, 2016. 5 Matrix Global Advisors, “Health Care Costs from Opioid Abuse: A State-by-State Analysis,” April 2015. 6 The Pew Charitable Trusts, “With Opioid Crisis, a Surge in Hepatitis C,” August 28, 2017. OPIOID OVERDOSE

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

In June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updated the Quarterly State Personal Income series for the first quarter of 2017. The data include personal income and data suggest that average wages grew at an annual rate of roughly 2.7% in the second quarter of 2017. Analysts expect that the tight labor market could provide a further boost to wage growth during the next few quarters. PA

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

0.4% 0.4% 2.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. STATE GDP CONTRACTS The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for the second quarter of 2016. The release includes revised quarterly states ranged from 2.8% in New York to –3.4% in West Virginia. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis divides GDP into different sectors for reporting purposes. For Pennsylvania, real GDP growth in the first half of the year

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

for economic growth. Partial data for 2016 Q3 and Q4 suggest a modest acceleration of average wage growth. For 2017, analysts anticipate that an uptick in inflation and a tighter labor market will translate into further acceleration of average wage growth U.S. October 2016 Monthly Trends Report Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Annual Wage Growth 1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. SA4 Personal Income and Employment by Major Component. 2

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

Annual $0.50 increase to $15 in 2028 (CPI adjustment thereafter) ▪ Tipped cash wage increased to regular minimum wage Preliminary Analysis ▪ Strong wage growth | smaller labor force than pre-Covid ▪ Fewer workers impacted compared to prior analyses ▪ ~640,000 non-tipped workers make < $12/hr ▪ Smaller potential loss in jobs (mostly not filling vacant positions) ▪ Moderate gains

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf

data also suggest that surging rents have not yet translated into more evictions. A recent article notes that many housing analysts had expected a wave in the number of renter eviction filings after the federal eviction moratorium expired on August 26 Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf

rate since the current series was published in 2010. In addition to higher prices for labor, energy and raw materials, analysts point to transportation bottlenecks, labor shortages and shortages of critical inputs as key factors that drive inflationary pressures. The CPI Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf

point while shelter contributed 1.8 percentage points. The transportation component increased moderately to 3.0 percentage points. Looking forward, analysts anticipate that CPI growth will likely accelerate due to several factors. First, the BLS notes that gasoline price data are Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

This metric, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE index) from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, reflects price changes of goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers. A WSJ article notes that despite the low Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf

Pennsylvania Employment Gains and Labor Demand Remain Strong Since the release of June CPI-U data last week, many analysts now believe there is a one-third to two-thirds chance of at least a mild recession during the upcoming Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

of real-time consumer inflation because it reflects actual purchases during the month, and the data are not imputed. Moreover, analysts have noted the disconnect between the Shelter component and very strong gains in the housing market. Impact Fee Revenues Could Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf

been spent, Federal Reserve data on checking account balances through 2021 Q3 (latest data) show that substantial additional savings remain. Analysts expect that demand-driven inflation will continue until these excess savings are reduced further or higher interest rates begin to Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

3% of loans) remain in forbearance. In Pennsylvania, 7.2% of loans are non-current according to a December 2020 analysis from mortgage-data firm Black Knight, an increase of 35.1% over the prior year. Monthly Economic Update February 2021 Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf

PA Employment Gains Remain Strong, But Job Openings Decline Since the release of June CPI-U data, many analysts believe there is a one-third to two-thirds chance of at least a mild recession during the next year Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions 48.0 47.3 50.0 62.9 62.5 57.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates or Change Economic Outlook | Page 2 Overall, the

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

profits only. Includes S corporations. Net new jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends rates are year-over-year. Net New Jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency, PA Lottery, PA Department of Environmental Protection. Annual PA Employment

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Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

The quarterly annualized growth rate of the US economy. Excludes infla- tion. Data are from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of US personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. In- cludes any inflationary gains. Data are from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of US corporations. Data are from the

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

Three Primary Issues How likely is a recession during next two years? ▪ Many analysts believe very likely | this forecast assumes stagnation What caused the surge in April income tax revenues? ▪ Data suggest much of only. Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Trends May 23, 2022 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2021.1 2021.2 2021

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue 335 million in PIT, $160 million in SUT and $68 million in Other Tax. To facilitate an accurate comparison, this analysis assumes that the delayed revenues were received in FY 2019-20. 2 The IFO official estimate refers to the estimate

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue 335 million in PIT, $160 million in SUT and $68 million in Other Tax. To facilitate an accurate comparison, this analysis assumes that the delayed revenues were received in FY 2019-20. 2 The IFO official estimate refers to the estimate

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions in PIT, $160 million in SUT and $68 million in Other Tax. To facilitate an accurate comparison, this analysis assumes that the delayed revenues were received in FY 2019-20. Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 4 the reduction in the holding period

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REU-2019-11.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

PA 17120-2117 Harrisburg, PA 17120-2055 Dear Representatives Boback and Petrarca: This letter responds to your request for an analysis of child welfare program funding in Pennsylvania from federal, state and local sources. Specifically, your letter requests a fiscal analysis of the federal Family First Prevention Services Act (Family First). Family First provides new federal funding for certain evidence- based

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

income metric used throughout this brief is personal income. This measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than taxable 2 billion) and distributions from the Provider Relief Fund ($3 billion) to hospitals and health care providers. 1, 2 The analysis removes these stimulus funds from the data for Figure 2 to measure underlying income gains over the period. If this

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RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf

on weekly provisional counts for the entire year. To compute additional deaths that may be due to COVID-19, the analysis removes five categories that are not directly related to COVID-19 (but may be indirectly related) and can be readily deaths ranged from roughly 118,200 to 119,100 and are relatively stable and predictable. Based on those data, the analysis assumes that residual deaths for 2020 and 2021 would have been 118,500 in the absence of COVID-19. 2017

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

that reveal the impact that tax law changes had on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. This research brief provides a general analysis of those impacts and how tax law changes affected federal income tax paid for tax year 2018 compared to amounts data include nine income groups for taxpayers that reported positive Adjusted Gross Income. To facilitate the presentation of data, this analysis collapses those groups into three income groups. The groups used for the analysis do not imply that taxpayers in a

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

to 2017-18, will be available on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can use to assess the fiscal sustainability of current tax and spending policies,” Knittel said. The trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. On a current-policy basis, the analysis finds that expenditure growth has the potential to significantly exceed revenue growth over this period. Other major findings include: 

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

of Pennsylvania February 10, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. Independent Fiscal Office 10

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PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf

and National School Lunch Program eligibility 4. In the state benchmarks section of the K-12 Education Activity, add an analysis or cite research that compares Pennsylvania to the average state in terms of the combined state and local funding available In the substate metrics section of the K-12 Education Activity, expand upon the average expenditure per average daily membership analysis in the table on page 14 by adding charts showing current expenditures per weighted student count (as defined by the

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PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: flill@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Jackson Wilken, IFO Intern (June to August 2021) Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: lmclaughlin@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions those data may not sum to totals due to rounding. 3 For example, some states use cost-benefit analyses, such as the Pew Charitable Trusts Results First model. DGS Lean Initiative | Page 3 DGS Lean Initiative For several years, the Department

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions 48.0 47.3 50.0 62.9 62.5 57.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates or Change Economic Outlook | Page 2 The revised

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

1.8%. PA Real Gross Domestic Product Surges in 2018 Q2 On November 15, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary state real Gross Domestic Product data for 2018 Q2. On a quarterly annualized basis, the Pennsylvania economy expanded 3.8%) and strong growth for wholesalers (7.8%). Which U.S. Workers Have Received Real Pay Raises? An October analysis of Current Population Survey data by the website Governing finds that median (as opposed to average) real earnings for individuals

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

quarter of 2016, 2 operators still possess a substantial inventory of wells that have been drilled but remain dormant. Industry analysts predict that, due to the potential of this untapped inventory, the drilling of new wells will not meaningfully increase until by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Labor and Industry. 2 Released on November 30, 2016. 3 Natural Gas Intelligence, “Oil/Gas Analysts Chart Industry’s ‘Bumpy’ Recovery,” August 23, 2016. Pennsylvania Natural Gas Industry Data 2011Q4, 5,197 jobs 2016Q1, 1,316

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

billion (-4.3%) in the third quarter of 2015 on a year-over-year basis. 1 For the fourth quarter, analysts project that earnings will continue to decline by 2% to 10% compared to the prior year. If these projections are corporations remit their final payments for tax year 2015. February 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 will be released March 25. 2 Third quarter mining profits from the “Quarterly

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year

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MER-2014-07.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.2 2013.3 2013.4 2014.1 Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Snapshot: The Changing Composition of Pennsylvania Personal Income The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes quarterly estimates of personal income for the U.S. and all 50 states. State personal income is comprised of

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

and Economic Development Standing Committee and to the Pennsylvania General Assembly. Prior to NCSL, Maher served as a nonpartisan policy analyst for the city of Philadelphia. She received her bachelor’s degree in political science and international service from American University 65 59 Stimulus ($ billions) --- --- $64 $54 $2 --- --- Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. Pennsylvania Payroll Employment Still Lags November 15, 2021 9 Number

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg

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Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf

Supports the Congress For information about the host, see www.ifo.state.pa.us. 1 CBO Provides Budget and Economic Analysis to Support the Congressional Budget Process For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/about. 2 For additional information, see www It hires people on the basis of their expertise without regard to political affiliation. The agency carefully considers whether potential analysts can perform objective analysis, regardless of their own personal views. CBO uses a common set of assumptions when analyzing different

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Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf

25 of 2011. The request also included an estimate of the impact on residential property and business property taxpayers. This analysis provides a high-level estimate of the potential impact on taxpayers from Act 25 from fiscal year (FY) 2012- 13 for pensions to exclude increases in aggregate salaries (at the school district, not individual level) from the computation. For this analysis, the IFO utilized three data sources, which are as follows: • Annual report on referendum exceptions, published by the Pennsylvania Department

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

Each member of the board will be required to obtain eight hours of mandatory training in investment strategies, actuarial cost analysis and retirement portfolio management on an annual basis. § 8502. Administrative duties of board. (a) Employees.-- (1) Effective 30 days after Information gathering.--The Public Pension Management and Asset Investment Review Commission may conduct hearings and otherwise gather pertinent information and analysis that it considers appropriate and necessary to fulfill its duties. (f) Logistical and other support.--The Public Pension Management and

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

20 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2020-21 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2021-22 through FY 2025-26 are made based property taxes could be reduced by 1.9 percent statewide due to various factors related to the pandemic. 2 This analysis reflects a more moderate decline. Delinquent collections from prior years are also projected to decline in FY 2020- 21, by

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

The office was created by Act 120 of 2010. Matthew Knittel serves as director for a staff of nine individuals. Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2013-14 Governor’s Executive Budget The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

2 2011.3 1.3% 4.7% 4.8% -3.6% 7.1% Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Financing Authority. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2011.3 4.5% -1.1% 5.5% a clearer understanding of the economic outlook and the best manner to direct their retained earnings. In the near term, analysts expect that profits will remain at relatively high levels, as- suming that the private sector recovery continues. The U.S

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

U.S. Congress. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) does not support or oppose any policy discussed on its website. Rather, analysis posted on this website is intended to inform readers of potential outcomes based on available data and research. The IFO is generally equal to the employer and employee portions of FICA. That tax was also reduced by two percentage points.) ANALYSIS It is relatively straightforward to project the general impact of the proposed tax cut extension on the Pennsylvania economy and

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Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf

decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis.  FPTC: large ($65 million) and good data are available.  JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less clear.  HPTC: too small ($3 million) in current form. January 24, 2019 2 Key Factors for All

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx

over past decade. ▪ Government, academic and industry. ▪ Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis. ▪ FPTC : large ($65 million) and good data are available. ▪ JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less clear. ▪ HPTC: too small ($3 million) in current form. January 24, 2019 2 Key Factors for All Tax

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf

decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis.  FPTC: large ($65 million) and good data are available.  JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less clear.  HPTC: too small ($3 million) in current form. January 24, 2019 2 Key Factors for All

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

districts. • Consolidated district. 16.Dec.2014 4 Scope and Assumptions For the purpose of computing real estate tax rates, the analysis excludes: Building-level administrative costs. The impact of changes in federal funds. Costs related to the York County School of Earned Income Tax Admin. Savings Real Estate Tax 2.0% 75% 15.932 mills 0.5% 25% 21.956 mills Analysis shows that real estate tax millage is more responsive to the rate of the EIT than the level of administrative

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

in the special funds section of the Governor's Executive Budget. 1 Transfers to other special funds included in this analysis have been subtracted to avoid double counting. 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 Actual 4,425 -4,719 Source: Governor's Executive Budget, various years. 1 Transfers to other special funds included in this analysis have been subtracted to avoid double counting. Note: dollar amounts in thousands. Reporting for special fund spending differs based on

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

Data Microsimulation Marriage (1996 – 2070) Penn Wharton Budget Model 11 Census Data Microsimulation “The Tax Cut and Jobs Act” Static Analysis 12 Revenue Impact Revenue Effect 2018-2027 (billions of $) Revenue Effect 2018-2040 (billions of $) Tax Provision JCT PWBM PWBM than experts at JCT, partly due to differences in assumed income shifting/reclassification. • We are similar to more recent CBO analysis • Regardless: static analysis is still king and big driver of dynamic Penn Wharton Budget Model 18 Adding: Dynamic Effects U

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

21 in late Spring 2022. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2021-22 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2022-23 through FY 2025-26 are made based economic growth. Economic growth is assumed to be 1.5% in FY 2021-22, which is somewhat higher than previous analyses, due to increases in assessed values resulting from strong growth in home prices. During the forecast period, current-year collections

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. CY 2020 Lost Labor Income More Than Offset October 29, 2020 2 Estimate Notes Lost Labor Income actively seeking work age 16 and older. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Other Economic Factors That Bolster Spending PA applications for refinancings grew +200% March to May  Reduce monthly payments | take

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

Data in blue are preliminary or forecasts. Corporate profits are non-financial, domestic profits. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Economic Forecast vs Long-Run Growth May 20, 2019 3 2013-18 2018 2.0% U.S. Corporate Profits 1.8% 10.7% 4.3% 4.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Corporate profits are domestic, non-financial profits only. Wages vs Tax Revenue Growth May

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

2013 Revenue Conference 2 Pennsylvania Forecast 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 3 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. 2011 2012 2013 2014 6 3.1 Jan 2013 2.8 1.8 2.0 2.6 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. Primary Economic Driver: Consumer Spending  Consumers must

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REU-2020-02.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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REU-2020-01.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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REU-2019-12.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf

the professional and business service (-1.7%, e.g., lawyers, accountants and building maintenance services) sectors. 1 For example, an analysis by Furman and Powell found that current worker earnings are lower than 2019 due to inflation. See “US workers are achieving full benefits. The average annual benefit earned was $30,050 for SERS and $29,600 for PSERS. 3 The analysis uses an average benefit amount ($29,820) for the two systems. The table displays nominal payments over the next 15

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

retirement income (e.g., Social Security and pension contributions). The measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than state taxable proportion (approximately 45%) of the population is institutionalized, which produced artificially low personal income and net earnings data. (Note: This analysis does not control for student, nursing home or institutionalized populations in other counties.) Counties with lower shares of net earnings

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RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf

retirement income (e.g., Social Security and pension contributions). The measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than state taxable significant proportion (approximately 40 percent) of the population was institutionalized, which produced artificially low per capita income levels. (Note: This analysis does not control for student, nursing home or institutionalized populations in other counties.) Second, Montour County is a relatively small

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RB-2018-01.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative and public interest. This analysis provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school 17 in late spring 2018. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2017 -18 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23 are made based

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised for 2016 and 2017. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 29, 2019 2 2015 2016 2017 2% n.a. Note: S&P 500 Index uses average values for entire year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

are forecasts by the IFO (all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.05.2018 4 Change in PA Payroll Jobs Updated amount is an IFO estimate. June.05.2018 11 Property Tax June.05.2018 12 Revenue update Homestead rebate analysis Recent proposal for elimination Property Tax Discussion June.05.2018 13 PDE released AFR revenue data last month June.05

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

Data in blue are preliminary or forecasts. Corporate profits are non-financial, domestic profits. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Economic Forecast vs Long-Run Growth June 11, 2019 3 2013-18 2018 2.0% U.S. Corporate Profits 1.8% 10.7% 4.3% 4.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Corporate profits are domestic, non-financial profits only. Wages vs Tax Revenue Growth June

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

2016 May 24, 2017 11 Note: Average growth rates for real Gross Domestic Product. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. US GDP 2011-16 US 2.1% US 3.0% US 3.3% US 1.3% dot com bubble housing 2016 May 24, 2017 12 Note: Average growth rates for real Gross Domestic Product. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. US GDP PA GDP PA 1.5% PA 2.1% PA 2.5% 2011-16 PA 1.8% PA Seniors

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions 6 6 6 6 8 -- MA - Physical Health Services Notes: Sources: U.S. HHS, CMS; Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013-2017 Survey Results. 1 Data from

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

based ▪ Positive synergies, spillovers, clustering and agglomeration effects January 23, 2020 2 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis has 3 steps ▪ Determine the amount/share of spending incentivized ▪ Determine type of spending and industries affected ▪ Use IMPLAN to awards ▪ All credits used against tax liability | cannot be sold January 23, 2020 5 Mobile Telecom Broadband Investment MTBI economic analysis has data and research limitations ▪ Does a 5% credit incentivize investment? | very few relevant studies ▪ Where is investment located? | data

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. A Quick Tour Budget Status.  Where are we? How did we 2.5% Avg. Real Wage Growth 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. October 19, 2017 13 Service Sector Drives Job Gains Employment (000s) Change (000s

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-08.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

4.0% in 2017 Q1 on a year-over-year basis. 2 A final factor could be weak business spending. Analysts estimate that business purchases may comprise one-third of the PA sales tax base. Unfortunately, state- level business profit or Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

Dollar amounts are in millions. BEA RELEASES EARNINGS FOR 2015 On March 24 th , the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state Personal Income data for 2015 Q4. 1 Personal Income is a broad measure that includes all types Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

6 All Groups 67.1 66.0 65.4 62.9 Source: PA data: CPS, Center for Workforce Information and Analysis. U.S. data: CPS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16-19 51.9% 48.8% 44.4% 40.9% are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

GDP and Wage data revised from preliminary to final for 2015. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Economic Forecast Comparison 25.Jan.2017 4 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 25.Jan.2017 7 PA Wage Growth Underperforms Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecast by IFO. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% June 2016 3.6% for FY 16-17 ~$2.1

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MER-2015-06.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S. Energy Information Administration. 3/Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. 4/Federal Housing Finance Agency. 5/Federal Reserve Bank Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Snapshot: Real GDP Per Capita Growth by State In June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released statistics for real gross domestic product (GDP) by state. The release includes revised figures for 1997 to 2013 and

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MER-2015-01.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S. Energy Information Administration. 3/Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. 4/Federal Housing Finance Agency. 5/Federal Reserve Bank price dropped by nearly $1.58 per gal- lon, a decline of 42 percent. 1 (Data through February 2, 2015.) Analysts attribute the decline to weak global de- mand and excess production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well

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MER-2014-08.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.3 2013.4 2014.1 2014.2 Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Snapshot: Personal Consumption Expenditures by State In August 2014, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released a new prototype statistic: personal consumption expenditures (PCE) by state. The PCE data represent the goods and services

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MER-2014-06.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.2 2013.3 2013.4 2014.1 billion in 2012 to $603.9 billion in 2013, according to revised estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This is less than the 1.8 percent growth for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP), but similar

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MER-2014-05.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.2 2013.3 2013.4 2014.1 uct (GDP). Previously, industry data were only avail‐ able on an annual basis. These new data allow re‐ searchers and analysts to gauge how certain sectors are preforming compared to other sectors on a quar‐ terly basis. The table below summarizes

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MER-2014-04.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.1 2013.2 2013.3 2013.4 of economic output because the series rises and falls with real private GSP. Currently, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes state GSP data on an annual basis only. Moreover, the most recent GSP estimates typically lag current activity

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MER-2014-01.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.1 2013.2 2013.3 2013.4 more dramatic decline going from 52.8% (1998) to 34.4% (2013). Source: Pennsylvania Data: CPS, Center for Workforce Information & Analysis. U.S. Data: CPS, BLS (Calculations by the IFO.) January 2014 1 Current Population Survey (CPS); Center for Workforce Information

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MER-2013-12.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2012.4 2013.1 2013.2 2013.3 government purchases (-1.3 percent) and business investment (-0.4 percent). Consumer purchases (1.1 percent) were also tepid. Some analysts fear that GDP growth will taper again. However, some recent negative impacts have been absorbed or were a one-time

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Federal Housing Finance Agency. 5 02.May.2017 Historical P 500 based on data for January through April. Other growth rates are projections. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Federal Housing Finance Agency. 6 02.May.2017 Economic

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

be concentrated in the retail-wholesale trade, food service, and accommodation/travel sectors. The IFO will release a more comprehensive analysis of the proposed higher minimum wage from the Executive Budget in late March or early April. That report will also include an analysis of the combined reporting and personal income tax revenue proposals. Thank you. I would be happy to answer any questions

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

causal effect of recreational marijuana legalization in Colorado and Washington. However, Aydelotte et al. (2019) performed a difference-in-differences analysis using nine control states and were able to determine a statistically significant increase in fatal crashes after the opening of R. Brown, Lawrence H. Brown. “Fatal Crashes in the 5 Years After Recreational Marijuana Legalization in Colorado and Washington.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 132 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2019.105284 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Marijuana

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  Expenditures significant growth due to one-time measures Analysis finds a ~$2.0 billion structural deficit  November 2019 IFO Outlook identifies a ~$1.0 billion structural deficit  450 120 100 80 59 54 48 Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. recovery “typical” economic growth Recent PA Economic Growth Rates or

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

Budget Emphasis: Cost Containment State governments have used three methods.  Efficiency Initiatives - Lean, TQM, Continuous Improvement.  Cost-Benefit Analysis - PEW Results First model.  Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB). Act 48 of 2017: New PBB and tax credit review duties fiscally sound.  Work with states to develop and implement best practices. Previous Experience and Education  Provided research and analysis on local and state public policy topics for the American Chamber of Commerce Executives.  Planned and coordinated education for

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

58.8 65.6 45.6 45.4 45.7 Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Demographics Cause Tight Labor Market February 28, 2020 6 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 4.3% 4.0% -- Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Net Payroll Job Gains (000s) February 28, 2020 7

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

65 Note: Job Gains for payroll employment only. Excludes self-employed. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Federal Stimulus - Quarterly Pattern January 31, 2022 3 2020.2 Loss and Labor Force data not seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Labor Force Contraction Continues January 31, 2022 5 Labor Force # Employed + # Unemployed Unemployment Rate # Unemployed / Labor Force Unemployed Actively

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. Monthly Economic Report O c t o b for their second and third years of production. Given the current forecast of natural gas prices from the EIA, some analysts project a reduction in funds attributable to newly spudded wells in 2014 compared to 2013. 1 .EIA, Natural Gas Withdrawals

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. Monthly Economic Report A u g u s derground economy or certain types of production such as an individual who mows their own lawn. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) esti- mates GDP and revises their methodology every five years to better reflect economic activity. The latest revisions, which

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 3 lion), West Virginia ($403 million), Delaware ($217 million) and Maryland ($218 million) trailed Pennsylvania in gaming tax revenue. Many analysts believe that location is the primary considera- tion for consumers who patronize Pennsylvania’s casinos. For example, 80 percent of

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. Monthly Economic Report A p r i l in consumption; whereas, a $1 increase in housing wealth raises spending by 3.2 cents. 1 The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes monthly data on the personal savings rate, person- al income and personal consumption expenditures of U.S. consumers. The

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

us 2012.3 3.1% 3.3% 7.5% 3.9% 6.6% Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. 2012.3 3.0% -0.3% 5.3% divi- dend equivalent to more than six years of quarterly dividends. 1 New data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) indicate that fourth quarter dividend payments were indeed much higher in 2012 com- pared to 2011. The graph below

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

us 2012.3 3.1% 3.3% 7.5% 3.9% 6.6% Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Financing Authority. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. 2012.3 3.0% 0.0% 5.3% factor possibly affecting sales of wholesalers and retailers is reduced demand from businesses. Ac- cording to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the eco- www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

1) “What were the primary motivating factors behind the creation of a volunteer firefighters’ retirement system?”; 2) “Was a need analysis conducted prior to creation of the retirement plan?”; and 3) “Has a post- implementation evaluation been performed to assess the the goals of retention and recruitment were part of the enabling state legislation. In no case had a formal needs analysis been conducted prior to the implementation of the retirement plan. The Commission staff found that only one state, New York

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Releases

research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child. Full Report Analysis of Proposed Changes to State Motor Fuel Taxes January 26, 2023 | Economics and Other The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Chairman Grove for a static and dynamic analysis of proposed changes to state motor fuel taxes. The proposal would reduce those taxes and replace lost revenues with motor

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WC-2019-UFCW.pdf

2020 step increase, multiplied by the 2.0 percent GPI. The total is prorated for the October 2020 effective date. Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement United Food & Commercial Workers (UFCW) millions of dollars 1/ Annual savings from the replacement of high- 7 0.0 30.7 1/ Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, and restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement United Food & Commercial Workers (UFCW) millions of dollars Table 2 CreationDate: 2019-08-12 18:30

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WC-2019-SEIU.pdf

2020 step increase, multiplied by the 2.0 percent GPI. The total is prorated for the October 2020 effective date. Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement SEIU Local 668 millions of dollars 1/ Annual savings from the replacement of high-wage senior 6 155.6 290.1 1/ Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, and restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement SEIU Local 668 millions of dollars Table 2 CreationDate: 2019-08-12 18:34:44 Creator

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WC-2019-AFSCME.pdf

2020 step increase, multiplied by the 2.0 percent GPI. The total is prorated for the October 2020 effective date. Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement AFSCME Council 13 millions of dollars 1/ Annual savings from the replacement of high-wage senior 4 130.2 827.3 1/ Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, and restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement AFSCME Council 13 millions of dollars Table 2 CreationDate: 2019-08-12 18:39:41 Creator

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SR2017-06.pdf

the market value of taxable property in Pennsylvania for 2016, and we believe the survey provides a solid basis for analysis. While the survey measures currently approved homestead properties, there may be additional properties that qualify as homesteads. It is possible which properties are located and may not align precisely with previously published county-based information on school property taxes. Such analyses typically place multi-county school districts in a single county consistent with their classifications by the Pennsylvania Department of Education

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SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx

S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Figure 4.2 Annual Growth Rates for Figure 4.2 Fiscal Personal Sales School Regional S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Creator: Matthew Knittel LastModifiedBy: MJR Created: 2013-10-21T14:35:35Z Modified: 2013-10-22T14

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

19 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2019-20 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25 are made based 2007-08, limits the increase to a school district’s millage rate based on an index, with certain exceptions. This analysis employs the index to estimate the additional revenues school districts could raise through millage increases and then applies a utilization

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

18 in late Spring 2019. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2018-19 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24 are made based 2007-08, limits the increase to a school district’s millage rate based on an index, with certain exceptions. This analysis employs the index to estimate the additional revenues school districts could raise through millage increases and then applies a utilization

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

is year-over-year gain for Q1 only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FHFA. Forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Trends May 26, 2021 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2020.2 2020.3 2021.2 based on data for April only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Federal Monies to Pennsylvania May 26, 2021 5 CY 2020 CY 2021 Total Federal Pandemic Unemployment (FPUC

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts May 26 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic May 26, 2020 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change IHS Markit 2019

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Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf

taxes.  The definition of household income corresponds with that of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program. 1 The analysis uses data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and the Pennsylvania Department of Community an annual growth rate of four to five percent could be used. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be

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Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf

Senator Scavello: This letter responds to a request made by your office to provide an additional estimate related to an analysis transmitted by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on August 16, 2019. 1 The new request provides a proposed rebate for 5 percentage points would provide sufficient revenues to fund the proposed rebates. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be

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Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf

income tax rate would need to increase by 0.33 percentage points. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office 1 The analysis also assumes that additional homeowners that have not applied for the homestead exclusion would come forward and apply for the

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RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf

population ratio is the share of residents employed and is an alternative measure to the labor force participation rate. Some analysts prefer that metric because it can be based on actual employment data as opposed to surveys used to generate labor the moratorium costs the federal government $4.3 billion each month, or $52 billion each year. 2 Moreover, a recent analysis by the Brookings Institution finds that nearly three-quarters of monthly student loan debt payments (in dollar terms) are from

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

retirement income (e.g., Social Security and pension contributions). The measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than state taxable Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, 2015-17. (Web) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income Summary, 2015-17. (Web) Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 2015 2017 AAGR Rank 2015 2017 AAGR Rank 2015

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2014-15 revenue estimate certified by the Governor. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues for the second revenue estimates for the fiscal year, along with a discussion of the major revenue sources. Fiscal Year-End Analysis The $635 million amount by which actual revenue exceeded estimate for the fiscal year is detailed further in the table below. Nearly

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QRR_2013Q4.pdf

this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2013-14 revenue estimate certified by the Governor. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues were approximately $23

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QRR_2013Q3.pdf

this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2013-14 revenue estimate certified by the Governor. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues were approximately $42

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

7/15/2015 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our exception of making five-year projections of General Fund appropriations under current law, the office has not performed its own analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

0% b State-Local -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% Source: IHS Global Insight and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 24 . Sept . 2013 5 Headwinds - Federal Policy Expiration of Payroll Tax Cut and the Sequester. o $5.3 billion reduction 1.6% Dollar Difference $0 $39 fiscal years, millions of dollars 24 . Sept . 2013 22 Some Recent/Upcoming Releases An Analysis of Michigan Property Tax Reform. o Released last week. HB 76 and SB 76: To be Released Soon. Five-Year

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

3/26/2015 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our exception of making five‐year projections of General Fund appropriations under current law, the office has not performed its own analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

7 45.8 54.9 55.6 22.Jun.2015 2 PA Economic Forecasts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. 2014 GDP is preliminary. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rank Pennsylvania 1 1.3 n.a. 22.Jun.2015 3 Real Per Capita GDP Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 22.Jun.2015 4 Net Change = +$582 million Revised FY 2014-15 IFO Forecast Increases Decreases Corporate Net Income $336

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office March 8, 2018 Today’s Presentation Updates on topics covered in recent IFO analyses:  School property tax  Demographics  Revenue estimates  Pensions / Act 5 2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax 2049-50), the average risk mitigation reaches -49.5%, as nearly all active employees are covered by Act 5. ► An analysis limited only to Act 5 employees indicates that the full risk mitigation reaches -53.0%. 33 Source: IFO computations. March

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

4/11/2016 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our exception of making five‐year projections of General Fund appropriations under current law, the office has not performed its own analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

self-employed individuals. Growth rate for gasoline for 2018 uses prices through April 2018. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts by IFO. May Net job gains based on non-seasonally adjusted data and exclude self-employed individuals. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Housing Finance Agency. May.01.2018 8

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

on support for juvenile court judges and juvenile probation departments, the Juvenile Justice System Enhancement Strategy, and data collection and analysis October 15, 2018 Initial List of Agency Activities 7  General Services  16 activities focusing on procurement, fleet management budgeted amounts), actual filled complement (not authorized), calculated efficiency metrics, and activity outputs and outcomes measured.  For each activity, analysis of trends and comparison with selected benchmarks from other states, industry standards, national and regional program reviews, audit reports. 

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf

research exists that links a job creation tax credit to brownfield investment ▪ More data needed to facilitate a formal economic analysis ▪ Alternative: “break even” analysis | standard approach used by many states ▪ What share of jobs need to be incentivized by the credit to break even

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf

Enhanced property values ▪ Health benefits of cleaner environment April 26, 2021 1 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis has 3 key steps ▪ What share of spending is incentivized by the tax credit? ▪ What type of spending and industries in zone | July 1, 2012 - June 30, 2035 ▪ Only 2 designated KSDZs | Aliquippa and Bethlehem ▪ Only 1 taxpayer participates | limited analysis Recommendations ▪ Documentation of baseline employment | ensures all jobs are new ▪ Implement program/project caps | limits tax impact ▪ Allow program to

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PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions past. The time to obtain a professional license in Pennsylvania should be minimized to avoid barriers to employment. Analysis of these data in real- time will allow focus to be directed to licensure areas with longer processing times or statewide shortages

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions the Bureau of District Mining Operations. The Bureau of Mining Programs develops and implements policy, procedures, documents, scientific analysis, technical guidance and statistical reporting in support of mine permitting, licensing and compliance opera- tions. The Bureau of District Mining Operations implements

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions these data may not sum to totals due to rounding. 3 For example, some states use cost-benefit analyses, such as the Pew Charitable Trusts Results First model. Agency Overview and Recommendations | Page 3 Agency Overview and Recommendations Mission To provide

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions those data may not sum to totals due to rounding. 3 For example, some states use cost-benefit analyses, such as the Pew Charitable Trusts Results First model. Agency Overview and Recommendations | Page 3 Agency Overview and Recommendations Mission The Pennsylvania

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

does PA compare to other states and U.S.? There are many things that PBB cannot do  Cost-benefit analysis (no longer supported by Pew Research)  Provide a direct method to compare similar programs  Identify and quantify waste streamline reports, more outcome metrics  Limit number of activities (set dollar or percentage threshold)  Use other methods: statistical analysis and research/best practices January 22, 2020 3 Some Issues Raised by Agencies Outcomes: we have very limited control over

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts June 22 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic June 22, 2020 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change IHS Markit 2019

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

estimates on taxpayer compliance. It report- ed an annual gap of $381 billion between taxes owed and taxes collected. The analysis covered tax years 2011 through 2013 and found that voluntary compliance remained relatively unchanged from prior years at 83.6% in 2018, accelerating from a 3.6% increase in 2017. The data, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 3, reported national personal consumption expenditure growth of 5.1% in 2018, with the strongest growth in the

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

News Real State GDP Growth is 2.1% for CY 2018 On May 1, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q4. The preliminary data for calendar year 2018 show that the state economy expanded That growth rate was generally consistent with compa- rable business investment data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and included in U.S. GDP. Those data show year-over-year growth for non-residential equipment and structures investment

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

56,700 (2018 Q4). Personal Income Growth Strong in 2018 Q4 On March 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data for 2018 Q4. For calendar year 2018, the data show that Pennsylvania personal income not available. Corporate Non-Financial Profits Up 10.4% for 2018 On March 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released preliminary profits data for 2018 Q4. For cal- endar year 2018, domestic profits of non-financial corporations increased

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for 2017 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released 4 th quarter state GDP data. For the entire year, the Pennsylvania economy expanded at a real rate of 1%). The broad decline was highly unusual given the solid economic growth for the U.S. and most states. Some analysts believe income was shifted out of the year in anticipation of potential tax cuts. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. The annual growth rate of sales of existing single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. (PA data contain some new

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

market data not seasonally adjusted. Data for 2021 Q1 based on January and February. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency. Low-Wage and Part-Time Jobs Hit Hardest 8 YOY DOR projects it is 29%; 5% of firms pay entire increase Note: Figures in dollar millions. Source: Independent Fiscal Office, Analysis of Revenue Proposals (April 2020). Natural Gas Trends 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PA Production (bcf) 4,601 5

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MER-2015-03.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S. Energy Information Administration. 3/Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. 4/Federal Housing Finance Agency. 5/Federal Reserve Bank Versus Renters Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2015 represents Q1 only. 20% 40% 60% 80% 2008 2010 2012 2014 Rent Own ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0%

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MER-2014-02.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.1 2013.2 2013.3 2013.4 Large reductions in mortgage and credit card debt were partially offset by gains in student loan and auto debt. Some analysts were surprised that this deleveraging process continued into 2013 since it appeared to have ended in 2012. Although trends in

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf

That measure is best used to quantify the prospective tax burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 2 Prices are from Bentek Energy and are converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet using Pennsylvania- specific heat content. The analysis disregards hedging contracts and assumes that the average spot price is representative of prices received by producers. 3. Post-production

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

CY 2018 impact fee scenarios outlined in Table 4 exclude the impact of the pending litigation. As noted in the analysis of the CY 2017 collections, the status of 319 horizontal and vertical wells (impact fees of $6.1 million) was is best used to quantify the prospective tax burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 3. Prices

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

PA 1.3% US 1.5% 2011-17 PA 1.6% US 2.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for 2017 are preliminary. real GDP growth Future Challenges for State Budget Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 8 includes all individuals actively working or seeking work. Source: PA Department of Labor and Industry, Center for Workforce Information and Analysis. Senior Spending Patterns Shift To Housing Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 12 Share of Spending for Age 65+ 2005-

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IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf

Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: Thank you for your letter dated January 20, 2022. Your letter requests an analysis of three bills: HB 105 PN 2611 (like-kind exchanges); HB 333 PN 1160 (Section 179 expensing); and HB 1960 office, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) recently purchased the REMI model which gives the office the capability to perform dynamic analyses for certain proposals. If a request is received from an authorized requestor, then the model may be used for proposals

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IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf

2022 letter that asks the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues. This analysis uses the same data sources and methodologies used to provide previous estimates. The updated tables are as follows. Table 1 IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 (November 2021). As with the prior analysis, the estimates should be viewed as approximations only. They do not incorporate effective dates or a compliance phase-in. In

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

58.8 65.6 52.0 45.4 45.8 Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Real Time Economic Indicators November 14, 2019 11 Year- 6.8% --- # PA Refinancings -0.7% 60.0% 43.0% 107.0% 88.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Housing data from Zillow. Refinancings from MBA. Net PA Payroll Job Gains (000s

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

a report from March 2018, revised that estimate to 28 percent. In addition to the survey, the IFO performed an analysis that used a simple statistical test to quantify the potential impact of combined reporting for Pennsylvania. The test compared the gain of roughly 11 percent relative to the control states that did not enact combined reporting. The IFO updated that analysis using a more recent year of data, and the results are largely unchanged. For Pennsylvania, an 11 percent base expansion

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

those processes might end. The 2011 Economy: The Recovery Continues In order to assess the current state of the economy, analysts typically rely on real gross domestic product (GDP), or its state-level counterpart, real gross state product (GSP). Real GDP job gains. The employment report shows that the transportation and warehousing sector reported one quarter of December job gains. Several analysts have speculated that those gains might prove temporary due to unusually high levels of internet sales during the holiday season

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

2006 to 2009, Dr. Swagel was Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department, where he was responsible for analysis of a wide range of economic issues, including policies relating to the financial crisis and the Troubled Asset Relief Program 0 30 39 42 Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. Pennsylvania Payroll Employment Still Lags November 15, 2022 9 Number

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

from RI, CT, MS Economic Outlook Projections by IFO U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 11/15/2016 15 Long-Term PA Economic Forecast Average Annual Growth Rates Economic Metric 2004-10 2010-16 2016- local fiscal issues. Previous positions: • State Budget Crisis Task Force, Executive Director • New York State, Director of Economic and Revenue Analysis • New York State, Assembly Ways and Means Committee, Director 11/15/2016 23 Fiscal Outlook Overview Expenditures: current policy / current

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19, provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can use to assess the sustainability of current tax and spending policies. It is available for the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

65 59 Stimulus ($ billions) --- --- $64 $54 $2 --- --- Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Payroll Employment March 4, 2022 9 Payroll Employment Levels 2022 13 U.S. Purchases of Durable Goods Note: Billions of dollars. Nominal dollars. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 2.8.5. $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 $2,200 Jan-15

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

446 120 100 80 59 54 48 Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. Recent PA Economic Growth Rates or Change February 19, 2021 Nonfarm Businesses and is a year-over-year rate. State productivity data not published. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Payroll Jobs Recover Quickly, But Then Decelerate February 19, 2021 9 YOY Number Change

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

gains for tax year 2017, and that income comprised approximately one-sixth of their total adjusted gross income. 2 The analysis excludes property taxes paid by renters. Economists generally assume that most property taxes are borne by renters and not landlords. 3 The analysis excludes the impact of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) Program. For 2017, homeowners age 65 and older received $117

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

this, as there is no guarantee that return targets will be hit even at 30 years. Observations from our modeling & analysis •Contribution smoothing (e.g, asset smoothing, long amortization periods, caps, collars) cannot make investment risk go away. Pushes risk to under plausible assumptions. - Invested assets from Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. - Taxes from Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.3. - Taxes and assets are in fiscal year 2016 dollars, adjusted using GDP price index. - Risk measure

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2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

self-employed. June 2022 is economic forecast issued in that month. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO or IHS Markit. Pennsylvania Quarterly Economic Trends January 31, 2023 prior year. Labor market data are seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Pandemic Stimulus Monies Largely End January 31, 2023 5 2020 2021 2022 Residents/Businesses $64.8 $57.3 $8

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised for 2017 and 2018. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 28, 2020 2 2015 2016 2017 for entire year. Corporate Domestic Profits for non-financial firms only. Includes S corporations. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends

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2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf

Abbreviation Union Beg. Date End Date IFO Analysis FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Total AFSCME American Federation of State, County and Safety Authority and the PA Gaming Control Board. All other agencies (Treasury, Judiciary, Legislature, etc.,) are not included in the analysis. FISCAL IMPACT OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENTS CreationDate: 2021-09-27 16:34:10 Creator: Microsoft® Excel® for Microsoft 365 ModDate

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

2016. Wage growth for 2017 based on withholding trends through December. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. PA Economic Forecast Revisions Final Preliminary Projection Mid-Year Update All data except CPI-U are preliminary and subject to revision. Sources: U.S. Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis. Recent Economic Trends Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 5 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mining-Logging 1.7 -3.8

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 The natural gas industry in Pennsylvania has expanded rapidly since the early 2000s. The Center for Work- force Information and Analysis (within the Pennsylva- nia Department of Labor and Industry) has identified six core industries for natural gas and oil production

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 and should be viewed in con- junction with other employment and economic data to ensure a more comprehensive (and accurate) analysis. For example, a decline in the unemployment rate may look promising if viewed individually, but worrisome if one finds that

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2001_hr266.pdf

earn a full benefit, who earn a reduced or partial 13 benefit and who receive no benefit. 14 (4) An analysis of the exposure to liability on the part 15 of the Commonwealth and school employers arising out of 16 providing any liability 18 for poor investment performance in a DC plan and possible 19 contract impairment issues. 20 (5) An analysis of any changes in the fiduciary 21 responsibilities and duties of the Commonwealth and school 22 employers that may result

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

53 -v- Introduction The Public Employee Retirement Commission was established by Act 66 of 1981 to conduct actuarial and policy analyses for proposed legislation impacting public employee retirement systems in Pennsylvania, to administer the actuarial reporting and funding requirements for the defined contribution retirement systems do not provide cost-of-living adjustments and are not included in the following table and analysis of the survey results. The telephone survey form consisted of three questions. The first question asked how cost-of-living

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WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf

Pennsylvania Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends Jesse Bushman – Revenue Analyst July 14, 2020 1 Center for Energy Policy & Management Washington & Jefferson College Impact Fee July 14, 2020 2 Per well

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Testimony-02-2020.pdf

for 2019 are preliminary and will be revised. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve Board of New York. Forecasts by IFO. Author: Matthew Knittel Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2020-

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TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf

incentivized, depends on price ▪ Educational – Minimal data, not possible to reliably assess Credits do not include a formal economic impact analysis ▪ Economic activity and jobs creation not primary goal (Educational, Coal Refuse, Mixed-Use) ▪ Little economic activity incentivized (Brewers’) January 24

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TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf

assess reliably ▪ All Others – Minimal data, not yet possible to assess reliably Credits do not include a formal economic impact analysis ▪ Most credits not enacted until 2016 and impacted by COVID ▪ Programs still in early stages of implementation, minimal data available

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Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

November 14, 2019 Modernizing Pennsylvania’s Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Katherine Loughead Policy Analyst Center for State Tax Policy Tax Foundation kloughead@taxfoundation.org PENNSYLVANIA’S TAX CODE CONTAINS MULTIPLE BARRIERS TO BUSINESS TAX

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

the revenue proposals contained in the Executive Budget. The IFO will release a report later this month that contains an analysis of those proposals. Thank you for the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions

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Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf

refer to Tables A and B). As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, our office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available for further discussion with your committee once that

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Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf

0 30 39 42 Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. Inflation Appears to Peak June 2022 January 24, 2023 6

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

than the IFO’s earlier projections. The economic forecast is largely unchanged, and the changes to the estimate result from analysis of recent revenue collections and technical factors related to the timing of receipts. Relative to the Executive Budget published in

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Sign up

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Sign up

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions

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RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdf

Year 2019 Tax Year 2020 AGI Class (000s) Source: IRS, Statistics of Income Division and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Numbers in thousands, dollars in millions (except average). 2020 includes $1.86 billion in LWA payments. Unemployment Compensation by

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RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf

long COVID. 4 This update focuses on the impact of long-term demographic trends. Based on the latest data, the analysis finds that slightly more than one-half of the contraction of the state labor force since the onset of the

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RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf

lower UAL and enhanced leverage. As part of its statutory duties, the IFO and its contracted actuary (Milliman) provided an analysis of the legislation in an actuarial note transmitted November 19, 2019. 2 A simulation run by SERS assumed that an

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RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf

Q3 data for the U.S. employer cost index (ECI, wage compensation only) and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published September data for total wages paid to U.S. workers. 1 The ECI data show the largest annual

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

Plans Have Stabilized in Wake of Pandemic,” The Pew Charitable Trusts (September 2021) at www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2021/09/the-state-pension-funding- gap-plans-have-stabilized-in-wake-of-pandemic. Funded Per Funded Per

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

8.7 percent). The latest figure for October shows further improvement to 9.1 million (-6.0 percent). 6 The analysis excludes firms in NAICS 72, Accommodation and Food Service. Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Nathaniel Hendren, and Michael Stepner, “The

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QRR_2015Q1.pdf

IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2014-15 revenue estimate certified by the Governor. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues for the first

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QRR_2014Q4.pdf

IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2014-15 revenue estimate certified by the Governor. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues for the fourth

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QRR_2014Q2.pdf

IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2013-14 revenue estimate certified by the Governor. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues were approximately $349

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PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf

Monthly releases: revenue collections, economic update ▪ Pensions: determine if actuarial note required prior to further consideration ▪ Property tax: forecasts and analysis depending on requests/data available ▪ Performance Based Budgets (PBB) and Tax Credit reviews ▪ Natural Gas: quarterly production reports, annual impact

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PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf

2049-50), the average risk mitigation reaches -49.5%, as nearly all active employees are covered by Act 5. ► An analysis limited to Act 5 employees indicates that the full risk mitigation reaches -53.0%. ► The risk mitigation is worth up

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

2018). All source data for computations are from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2004-05 2006-07

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

next three years. The Independent Fiscal Office provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

of the elderly. The Independent Fiscal Office provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

9% Average Job Gains (000s) 26.2 -2.7 52.1 Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO based on published data through August 2014. 13 3.Dec

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

41 39 38 37 37 35 36 37 -2.5% -2.0% -0.5% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/) Demographics by State 1990-2012 Year

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

4.0% 5.0% US PA housing bubble Roughly +1.5% - 2.0% forecast Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Sales and Use Tax o Elderly buy fewer durable goods that are taxable. Significant purchases of healthcare and medications. o

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Greater Pittsburgh Nonprofit Partnership June 8, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation • Solid Labor Market • Some Wage Weakness Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 Real GDP 2.3% 1

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

62.9 66.9 60.1 54.7 52.1 Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. Net PA Payroll Job Gains (000s) March 1, 2019 9

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

three sources total $600 million. Sources: Independent Fiscal Office, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth Rates: PIT Withholding and Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, April 17

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Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

a quarterly annualized growth rate. Sources: Independent Fiscal Office, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, October 9, 2018. Growth Rates: PIT Withholding and Non-Motor Vehicle Sales

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

are forecasts by the IFO (all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Housing Finance Agency

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

are forecasts by the IFO (all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.04.2018 5 Change in PA Payroll Jobs

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

CPI-U 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% -- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Net Job Gains using quarterly data represent annualized amount and exclude self-employed. All rates or changes

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf

be associated with similar outcomes PDE could make a historical data set available to academic researchers to perform a longitudinal analysis that tracks outcomes over time across all school districts March 9, 2022 6 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

CPI-U 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% -- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Net Job Gains using quarterly data represent annualized amount and exclude self-employed. All rates or changes

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

Computations are by IFO and differ slightly from PA Dept. of Labor and Industry. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average Wage Growth 2017-2019 3.1% Average Wage Growth 2018-2020 4

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

are estimates by IFO based on withholding data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Payroll Jobs: Change from Prior Year August 25, 2021 2 YOY Number Change (000s) YOY Percent Change Jul 20

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

presentation from January 6, 2016, adjusted for wet and dry gas production. 4. Total production was obtained by an IFO analysis of DEP production reports (see note 1). 5. An alternative to the annual average ETR is the lifetime ETR, which

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

Real Gross Domestic Product Expanded by 2.8% in 2018 Q3 On February 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q3. The data show that Pennsylvania real GDP expanded at a 2.8% rate

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

if energy is excluded. Personal Income Growth Moderates in 2019 Q1 On June 25, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state personal income data for 2019 Q1. Compared to the prior year, data show that Pennsylvania personal income grew

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

employment in the education sector. BEA Releases GDP by County For the first time, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released county-level estimates of GDP from 2001 to 2018. In 2018, Philadelphia had the largest real GDP ($110.7

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

Profits Grew by 5.5% in First Half of CY 2018 On September 27, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released updated figures for non-financial (excludes banks) domestic profits of U.S. corporations. The preliminary data show that profits

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

salaries. U.S. Corporate Profits Increase 4.3% in 2018 Q1 On May 30, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary data for U.S. corporate profits for the first quarter of 2018. (See Table 1.12 from the

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

months. U.S. Corporate Profits Record Strong Growth in 2018 Q3 On November 28, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary data for third quarter U.S. corporate profits. (Table 6.16d in the link.) On a year-over-

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MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf

of living adjustments (COLAs). Due to declining consumer prices there will be no Social Security COLA for 2016, and the analysis attributes that result primarily to lower energy costs. It estimates that Pennsylvania personal income would increase by $800 million if

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MER-2015-04.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S. Energy Information Administration. 3/Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. 4/Federal Housing Finance Agency. 5/Federal Reserve Bank

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MER-2015-02.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S. Energy Information Administration. 3/Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. 4/Federal Housing Finance Agency. 5/Federal Reserve Bank

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MER-2014-12.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S. Energy Information Administration. 3/Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. 4/Federal Housing Finance Agency. 5/Federal Reserve Bank

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MER-2014-11.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 4 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. 3/Federal Housing Finance Agency. 4/Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.4 2014

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MER-2014-10.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.4 2014.1 2014.2 2014.3

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MER-2014-09.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.3 2013.4 2014.1 2014.2

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MER-2014-03.pdf

PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2013.1 2013.2 2013.3 2013.4

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MER-2013-11.pdf

delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. Monthly Economic Report N o v e m

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Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf

An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania May 13, 2013 Based on new information received after the release of its original report

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Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf

p le is from "Recent Trends in Like-Kind Exchanges," Gerald Auten, David Joulfaian and Romeo Mookerje , Office of Tax Analysis, U.S. Department of Treasury ( 2014 ) . 7 For example , see the Federation of Exchange Accommodators at htt p s://www

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Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf

Gains (000s) 69 56 -462 115 85 Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. permanent job loss PA Payroll Jobs Still Far Below Pre-

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Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdf

CreationDate: 2021-05-18 17:56:44 ModDate: 2021-05-18 17:56:43 Keywords: DAEbdi2sAF4,BACEQ8zYs40 Author: Lesley Title: Analysis of Revenue Proposals

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

is best used to quantify the prospective tax burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 3

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

is best used to quantify the prospective tax burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 3

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

is best used to quantify the prospective tax burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 4. Prices

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison, for an analysis using the lifetime ETR.) 3. Prices are from Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet using

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

is best used to quantify the prospective tax burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 5. The

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

significantly, it will have a negative impact on the national and state economies, especially if rates rise quickly. Finally, some analysts have raised concerns about inflation and inflated asset values, but it is too soon to know whether either could have

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

rate of revenue growth would be necessary in the second half in order to meet these estimates. After a detailed analysis of General Fund revenue sources and trends, the IFO concludes that such growth is not likely. Therefore, a revision to

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

65 59 Stimulus ($ billions) --- --- $64 $54 $2 --- --- Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. Pennsylvania Payroll Employment Still Lags November 16, 2021 6 Number

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House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office, the State Employees' Retirement System and the Public School Employees' Retirement System. Rate of Return Sensitivity Analysis August 19, 2021 4 SERS Employer Contributions PSERS Employer Contributions FYE 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 6.25% 7

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

achieving full benefits. The average annual benefit earned was $30,050 for SERS and $29,600 for PSERS. 1 The analysis uses an average benefit amount ($29,820) for the two systems. The table displays nominal payments over the next 10

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House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdf

Burden by County (Aug 2021) School District Property Tax Burden by County August 30, 2021 4 Rate of Return Sensitivity Analysis for State Pensions August 30, 2021 5 SERS Employer Contributions PSERS Employer Contributions Fiscal Year Underperform ROR by 1.0%

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

years 2012 through 2014 (latest available). As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, the office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available for further discussion with your committee once that

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

stand-alone report later this spring. As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, the office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available for further discussion with your committee once that

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

Per Capita Consumer Debt 1.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.9% 3.5% --- Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic and Budget Outlook, IFO (Nov. 2019), Zillow, and Federal Reserve Bank of New

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

of the elderly. The Independent Fiscal Office provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew

Hits: 1

Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew

Hits: 1

Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

week 12). Jobs data are not seasonally adjusted and do not include self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NY Federal Reserve Board, Zillow and U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey. Recent

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

DOR projects it is 29%; 5% of firms pay entire increase Note: Figures in dollar millions. Source: Independent Fiscal Office, Analysis of Revenue Proposals (April 2020). CreationDate: 2021-03-11 17:38:30 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate: 2021-03-11

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. The statute requires the office to make an annual assessment of the state’s

Hits: 1

2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. Monthly Economic Report S e p t e

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

us 2012.3 3.1% 3.3% 7.5% 4.0% 6.6% Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. 2012.3 2.9% -0.3% 5.3%

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

us 2012.3 3.1% 3.3% 7.5% 3.9% 6.6% Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Finance Agency. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. 2012.3 3.0% 0.0% 5.3%

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

us 2012.3 2.7% 3.2% 8.7% 3.9% 6.5% Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Financing Authority. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. 2012.3 n.a. 0.0% 5.3%

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

us 2012.3 2.0% 3.6% n.a. n.a. n.a. Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Financing Authority. 3/ Fed. Res. Bank of New York. 2012.3 n.a. n.a. n.a

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

us 2011.3 1.3% 4.7% 4.8% -3.6% 7.1% Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Financing Authority. 3/ Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2011.3 3.8% -1.1% 5.5%

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Links

IFO - Links IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Links U.S. Economic Indicators • Bureau of Economic Analysis • Bureau of Labor Statistics • Census Bureau • Weekly Jobless Claims • Employment Situation • Advance Retail Sales • Existing Home Sales • GDP and Profits

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