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PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ Tax Credit Report Presentation The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based Budget Board. Tags: based, budget, credit, performance, tax
Tax Modernization and Reform Presentation Director Knittel made a presentation to the House Finance Subcommittee on Tax Modernization and Reform.   based on a request from Chair Rabb, the presentation was updated to add an additional slide that displays the income distribution for self-employment and S corporation/partnership income.   03/01/2024
Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. based on PSERS’ baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-52, the Commonwealth will use $53.0 billion in General Fund revenues (2.7%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of assumptions. 02/28/2024
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised monthly General Fund revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 based on projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023 (includes adjustments released with the original monthly estimates in August 2023) adjusted to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in December 2023. 01/29/2024
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $24.9 billion in General Fund revenues (2.0%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year). 12/01/2023
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023. 08/30/2023
Corporate Net Income Tax TY 2019 This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) return data from tax year 2019 based on tax liability, apportionment factor and NAICS code. 07/25/2023
School District Property Tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2027-28, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 06/28/2023
State Rainy Day and General Fund Balances The IFO posted a new research brief that uses published data from The Pew Charitable Trusts to rank states based on the ratio of (1) Rainy Day Fund balances and (2) Total Balances (Rainy Day plus General Fund) to General Fund expenditures for enacted FY 2022-23 budgets. 03/24/2023
Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. based on PSERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51, the Commonwealth will use $46.5 billion in General Fund revenues (2.3%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions. 03/01/2023
PBB Overview Presentation for PID and EO IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices is posted on the website. 01/11/2023
PBB Overview Presentation for DOR IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Revenue is posted on the website. 01/10/2023
PBB Overview Presentation for DCNR and DDAP IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources and the Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs is posted on the website. 01/09/2023
Executive Offices Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Executive Offices. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023.    01/05/2023
Pennsylvania Insurance Department Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023.  The report was reposted on January 18, 2023 to correct a single year of data on page 14.   01/05/2023
Department of Revenue Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Revenue. Approved by the PBB Board on January 10, 2023.  01/05/2023
Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Drug and Alcohol. Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023.  01/05/2023
Department of Conservation and Natural Resources Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023.  01/05/2023
PA Population Contracts Since 2020 The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states. 01/04/2023
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions. 12/01/2022
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. 09/01/2022
School District Property Tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues  and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 08/15/2022
Department of Human Services - Part 3 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3).  Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022.   The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10.    05/04/2022
Department of Education Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education. Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16. The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022. The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022.  04/27/2022
Department of Aging Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging. Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1.  04/26/2022
PBB Overview Presentation for PDE IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education is posted on the website. 03/09/2022
PBB Overview Presentation for PDE and Agriculture IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education and the Department of Agriculture is posted on the website. 01/26/2022
PBB Overview Presentation for Aging and DHS (Part 3) IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Aging and the Department of Human Services (Part 3) is posted on the website. 01/25/2022
PBB Overview Presentation for DLI and PHMC IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission is posted on the website. 01/24/2022
Department of Agriculture Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture. Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022.   The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21.   01/20/2022
Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commision. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.   01/20/2022
Department of Labor and Industry Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Labor and Industry. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.   01/20/2022
PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ Tax Credit Report Presentation The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance based Budget Board. 09/28/2021
Department of Military and Veterans Affairs Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. 09/24/2021
Department of Human Services - Part 2 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 2). 09/24/2021
Department of Transportation Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Transportation. 09/24/2021
Pennsylvania State Police Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania State Police. 09/24/2021
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget. 08/31/2021
Performance-based Budget Board Hearing Request The IFO responded to a question raised during the Performance-based Budget Board hearing on April 26, 2021 by providing Neighborhood Assistance Program and the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit awards by region or county. 05/04/2021
PBB Overview Presentation for PSP and DMVA IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania State Police and the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs is posted on the website. 04/28/2021
PBB Overview Presentation for PennDOT and DHS (Part 2) IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Transportation and the Department of Human Services (Part 2). 04/27/2021
Senate Budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment based on gender, net domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states. 04/09/2021
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.) 02/24/2021
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. 02/23/2021
IFO Public Briefing: October 2020 Revenue and Economic Update The IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 10/23/2020
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget. 08/27/2020
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25. 02/06/2020
OBMD, MTBI, R&D, and KIZ Tax Credit Reviews and PBB Overview for DCED, DOH and DHS IFO presentation of Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, Research and Development and Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Reviews and Performance-based Budget highlights for the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Health and Department of Human Services.   01/22/2020
PBB Overview Presentation for PEMA, DOS and DEP IFO presentation of Performance-based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency, Department of State and Department of Environmental Protection. 01/22/2020
Performance-based Budget Board Hearings Agenda- Year 2 The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 01/21/2020
Department of Human Services - Part 1 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-based Budget Board. 01/21/2020
Department of Community and Economic Development Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Community and Economic Development. 01/21/2020
Department of Health Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Health. 01/20/2020
Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. 01/16/2020
Department of State Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State. 01/16/2020
Department of Environmental Protection Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Environmental Protection. 01/16/2020
Property Tax Rent Rebate Program In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate Program. Note: This analysis was originally posted on May 15, 2019. The analysis was reposted on September 12, 2019 to reflect technical adjustments made by the IFO based on research cited in the footnotes of the updated analysis.   09/12/2019
Property Tax Rebate for Older Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis of a proposed property tax rebate for older homeowners based on various levels of household income. 09/12/2019
Property Tax Rebate for Older Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed property tax rebate for older homeowners based on various levels of household income.  08/22/2019
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. 08/08/2019
SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.   03/18/2019
Performance-based Budget Board Hearings Agenda- Revised The IFO has posted a revised agenda for the upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 01/22/2019
Performance-based Budget Reviews Click on the hyperlink above to access the five performance-based budget reviews and presentations. 01/18/2019
Performance-based Budget Board Hearings Agenda The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 01/16/2019
Performance-based Budget Board Hearings Schedule The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 12/14/2018
Performance-based Budgeting Update On October 15, Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Performance-based Budget Board which provided an update regarding Act 48 implementation. 10/16/2018
MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY REVENUE ESTIMATES This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 07/30/2018
Pennsylvania Natural Gas Royalties The IFO responds to a request regarding natural gas royalty payments in Pennsylvania. based on draft statutory language provided by the Administration regarding the deductibility of the proposed severance tax from royalty payments, footnote 7 was added to the original letter. (March 23, 2018) 03/23/2018
Fiscal Impact of School Property Tax Rebates In response to a legislative request, the IFO estimated the fiscal impact of a school property tax rebate for all homesteads. The rebate would be equal to the statewide average school property tax paid by homesteads. The response includes both baseline estimates for currently eligible homesteads and estimates for a behavioral effect based on the filing of additional homestead applications in response to the availability of rebates. 03/13/2018
SPECIAL FUND RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS In response to a legislative request, the IFO compiled certain data presented in the Governor’s Executive Budget for various years to produce a multi-year history of receipts and disbursements for selected special funds. The letter identifies certain special fund budgeting and reporting issues that should be considered when analyzing the data. The letter also provides computations for a potential budget increase factor based on the annual increases in population and the consumer price index.  02/15/2018
Performance-based Budget and Tax Credit Review Schedule The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budgets and tax credit reviews. 01/30/2018
School District Property Tax Forecast This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property.  Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23. 01/18/2018
Updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget. 12/21/2017
County Homestead Detail As an extension of its recent research relating to property taxes, the IFO has released additional data regarding homestead property. Estimates for the numbers and assessed values of homestead properties by county are based, in large part, on the results of a survey of county assessment offices. The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania provided valuable assistance by coordinating the survey. Data for Philadelphia has been adjusted based on new information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. 12/06/2017
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share 11/16/2017
School Property Tax and Related Data In response to a legislative request, the IFO collected and analyzed certain data related to school property taxes and potential replacement revenues. Data for Philadelphia in Table 3 has been adjusted based on information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue.  11/13/2017
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget. 08/10/2017
Updated School District Property Tax Forecast Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast. 01/09/2017
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk 11/15/2016
Using Performance Measures in the State Budget Discusses performance-based budgeting and how it could be integrated into Pennsylvania's budget process. Highlights how other states are effectively using performance measures in their budget systems. Includes a prototype report which could be used in agency budget hearings and provides a method for quick integration. 09/19/2016
Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget.  08/24/2016
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21 This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (Updated January 2016) Presentation 01/27/2016
Impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 06/25/2015
Impact Fee Update - February 2015 This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 02/27/2015
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf 19 through 2049-50, the proposal is projected to reduce employer contributions by $1.4 billion on a cash flow basis and $319 million on a present value basis. Benefit design changes account for $1.2 billion of the savings on a cash flow basis and $592 million on Hits: 298
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf districts indicates increased annual taxpayer costs ranging from $100,000 (Cumberland Valley) to $3,000,000 (Philadelphia) for each 10 basis point decrease in investment earnings. There will, of course, be ongoing costs of monitoring investments for compliance with the legislation Commission has several mandated responsibilities. One of the Commission’s most important responsibili- ties is to study, on a continuing basis, policy issues relating to the Commonwealth’s public employee retirement systems and, when appropriate, to provide relevant information and advice Hits: 122
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf the Public Employee Retirement Commission Act (Act 66 of 1981), this Commission has a responsibility to study, on a continuing basis, the Commonwealth’s public employee retirement systems and to report thereon to the Governor and the General Assembly. Pursuant to Plans. . . . . . . . 21•Table 8–Major Municipal Membership Benefit Provisions.. . . . . . . . . 28•Table 9–Per-Member Administrative Cost for Selected MunicipalPension Plans Based on Pension Plan Size. . . . . . . . . . . 31 Graphs•Graph 1–Public School Employees’ Retirement System, EmployerContribution Rate Projections by InvestmentReturn Scenario.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Hits: 114
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review Hits: 97
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf severance payments, any other remuneration or other emolument received by a school employee during his school service which is not based on the standard salary schedule under which he is rendering service, payments for unused sick leave or vacation leave, bonuses or other compensation for attending school seminars and conventions, payments under health and welfare plans based on hours of employment or any other payment or emolument which may be provided for in a collective bargaining agreement Hits: 92
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf liability and (3) full tax liability. For each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual basis. All regression models described in this report use the SAS statistical software package. The software uses a maximum likelihood estimation procedure that Hits: 87
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf liability and (3) full tax liability. For each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual basis. All regression models described in this report use the SAS statistical software package. The software uses a maximum likelihood estimation procedure that Hits: 79
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf Table of Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Corporate Net Income Tax ........................................................................................................ 3 Proposal Highlights ......................................................................................................................... 3 Background and State Comparison .................................................................................................. 4 Combined Reporting Base Expansion Analysis ................................................................................. 5 Combined Reporting Revenue Impacts in Other States ..................................................................... 7 Revenue Impact .............................................................................................................................. 8 Factors that Impact the Revenue Estimate from $12.00 to $15.00 per hour over a six-year period. The analyses contained in this report are based on descriptions from the 2021-22 Executive Budget and, where applicable, legislative language provided by the administration. As necessary, assumptions Hits: 76
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf basic tax liability and (3) full tax liability. For each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual basis. All regression models described in this report use the SAS statistical software package. The software uses a maximum likelihood estimation Hits: 76
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf basic tax liability and (3) full tax liability. For each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual basis. All regression models described in this report use the SAS statistical software package. The software uses a maximum likelihood estimation Hits: 75
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf basic tax liability and (3) full tax liability. For each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual basis. All regression models described in this report use the SAS statistical software package. The software uses a maximum likelihood estimation Hits: 74
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review Hits: 71
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf 00 to $15.00 per hour over a six- year period. The analyses contained in this report are based on descriptions from the 2020-21 Executive Budget and, when available, technical language provided by the administration. For this year, the administration the business operations of all members of the unitary group and income is apportioned to the taxing jurisdiction based on the activity of the combined group in that jurisdiction. Supporters assert that this filing method reduces a firm’s ability to Hits: 68
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf Pennsylvania are from the January 2012 forecast by Global Insight, Inc. Demographic projections are from the Penn State Data Center based on tabulations from the 2010 Census. Historical revenue and expenditure data are from the Commonwealth’s Consolidated Annual Financial Report per annum). • Working age residents will decline by -1.8 percent (-0.2 percent per annum). General Fund Revenue Trends Based on demographic and economic forecasts: • For FY 2010-11 to FY 2013-14, revenues will increase by 1.6 percent Hits: 66
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf from the Congressional Budget Office (August 2019) or IHS Markit (October 2019). Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabu- lations from the 2018 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Penn- sylvania Department revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the analysis projects a deficit for the current fiscal year that is Hits: 64
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 63
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review Hits: 61
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf employment effects, income effects and implications for General Fund reve- nues. The analyses contained in this report are based on descriptions from the 2018-19 Exec- utive Budget and, when available, technical language provided by the administration. To the extent that administration’s proposal. 3 In general, com- bined reporting could be less effective (i.e., a smaller relative base expansion and reve- nue impact) at lower tax rates because firms have less incentive to engage in tax plan- ning. Therefore, a Hits: 54
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf 120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to and Jobs Creation Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance- Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the Hits: 53
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review Hits: 52
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf while projections for the U.S. are from IHS Markit, Wells Fargo and PNC. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2021 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data from the U.S. Centers demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2027-28. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the analysis projects a substantial General Fund ending balance for Hits: 51
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf 120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to and Jobs Creation tax credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance- Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the Hits: 49
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review Hits: 48
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf s 2,900 municipal pension plans, to study the Commonwealth’s public retirement system operations and policies on an ongoing basis and to formulate and recommend necessary remedial legislation. On October 26, 1999, the Senate of Pennsylvania passed Senate Resolution Number most clear elements of the de facto policy are that cost-of-living increases are provided on an ad hoc basis and that cost-of-living increases are provided at regular intervals. The Commission considered these two elements of the de Hits: 48
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 47
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 47
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 47
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2020 Popula- tion Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Pennsylvania demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2026-27. Based on the economic and demo- graphic assumptions used by this report, the analysis projects a substantial surplus for FY 2021- Hits: 47
2002_dbdc_report.pdf to be provided at retirement is defined, while the contributions to be made over the period of employment are variable based on the experience of the pension fund. In a “defined contribution” (DC) pension plan, the contributions to be made over the period of employment are defined, while the pension benefit to be provided at retirement is variable based on the experience of the pension fund. This distinction between the DB and DC approaches is most significant in the Hits: 47
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This Hits: 46
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from S&P Global. Demographic projec- tions are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2022 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data from the U.S. Centers accrual) bal- ances by the end of the forecast period. The projected deficit expands rapidly after the FY 2023-24 base year: $1.3 billion for FY 2024-25 and another $1.1 billion for FY 2025-26. After that year Hits: 46
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf in May 2019. Primary responsibilities include forecasting corporate net income tax revenues, business- and economic-related research, performance-based budgeting initiatives and various other projects including the Special Education Funding Formula survey. Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Mr. Taylor joined the Primary responsibilities include state and local pension anal- ysis, retiree healthcare and other post-employment benefits and performance-based budgeting for agencies such as the Department of Community and Economic Development. Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Mr. Bushman joined the IFO Hits: 43
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf requirements for municipal pension plans, to study the Commonwealth’s public employee retirement system operations and policies on an ongoing basis, and to formulate and recommend necessary legislative remedies in matters of public pension policy. On September 27, 2005, the Pennsylvania Board have overall responsibility for policy and benefit structure relating to the REHP. Eligibility for the Commonwealth's REHP is based upon years of credited service and/or age at retirement. The eligibility criteria and associated premiums are not established by Hits: 43
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This Hits: 42
index.cfm and Other March 01, 2024 Director Knittel made a presentation to the House Finance Subcommittee on Tax Modernization and Reform. Based on a request from Chair Rabb, the presentation was updated to add an additional slide that displays the income distribution IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS’ baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-52, the Commonwealth will use Hits: 42
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf 00 to $15.00 per hour over a six-year period. The analyses contained in this report are based on descriptions from the 2019-20 Executive Budget and, when available, technical language provided by the administration. For this year, the administration the business operations of all members of the unitary group and income is apportioned to the taxing jurisdiction based on the activity of the combined group in that jurisdiction. Supporters believe this filing method reduces a taxpayer’s ability to shift Hits: 41
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review Hits: 41
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Pennsylvania Department demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2025-26. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the analysis projects a substantial surplus for FY 2020-21 Hits: 41
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 24, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office Brewers’ and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Sen- ate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the Hits: 40
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 38
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 38
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the Hits: 37
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the Hits: 36
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review Hits: 36
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf surveys. The sample selection process used data from school year (SY) 2012-13 and separated districts into four groups based on their SY 2012-13 school performance profile (SPP) score: (1) high performance (SPP 90.0%+), (2) good (80.0- 89 1 It is noted that the computation of district SPP scores was discontinued shortly after the 2015 survey. However, based on other performance metrics computed for SY 2021-22, most districts maintained their relative performance level compared to other districts included Hits: 36
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 35
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office and Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the Hits: 34
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf 120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to and Jobs Creation tax credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance- Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the Hits: 34
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf the data used for this analysis are only published at the county level. The analysis uses two distinct time frames based on the local unit impacted. They are as follows:  For municipalities and counties, the analysis makes projections for revenues the methodology and data sources used to make projections for the growth rate of the two components of the EIT base (wages and net profits) from 2019 Q4 to 2021 Q1. As noted, all projections are made at the county level Hits: 33
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 33
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf collections for FY 2018-19 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2019-20 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides the IFO Hits: 31
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf of 2020 Q1, nearly all national and state economic metrics exhibited solid growth on a year-over-year basis. 1 However, on February 29, 2020, the first U.S. death attributable to the COVID-19 virus was reported in Seattle, and all remaining counties expected to partially reopen by June 5; 17 rural counties fully reopen on a modified basis The administration established various metrics to determine when counties can partially reopen (yellow status) or fully reopen (green status, however under a Hits: 31
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This Hits: 31
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 31
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 24, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office Brewers’ and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 30
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office and Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 30
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 19, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 30
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports avail- able to the public Hits: 30
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf collections for FY 2017-18 in late Spring 2019. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2018-19 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides a summary Hits: 30
RB-2018-01.pdf collections for FY 2016-17 in late spring 2018. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2017 -18 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report also incorporates recent Hits: 30
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 29
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf left blank. - General Findings and Recommendations | Page 3 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 29, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office and Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 29
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf district (SD) property tax collections as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and an outlook for future collections based on the latest available data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The latest data published by PDE PAGE 2 Forecast The IFO forecast of SD property tax collections for FY 2021-22 through FY 2026-27 is based on (1) millage rates published by PDE for FY 2021-22 and (2) various economic projections to forecast revenues for Hits: 29
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf district (SD) property tax collections as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and an outlook for future collections based on the latest available data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). For FY 2021-22, data published PAGE 2 Forecast The IFO forecast of SD property tax collections for FY 2022-23 through FY 2027-28 is based on (1) millage rates published by PDE for FY 2022-23 and (2) various economic projections for FY 2022-23 Hits: 28
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 28
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf of 2020 Q1, nearly all national and state economic metrics exhibited solid growth on a year-over-year basis. 1 However, on February 29, 2020, the first U.S. death attributable to the COVID-19 virus was reported in Seattle, and partially reopen  As of June 19: 13 counties partially open, 54 counties fully reopened on a modified basis  June 26: 12 additional counties reopen on a modified basis and only one county (Lebanon) remains in yellow status Under a Hits: 28
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf collections for FY 2019-20 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2020-21 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2021-22 through FY 2025-26 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Forecast Overview Table 1 provides Hits: 28
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf 1 Your updated request specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant to the estimates:  Establish a new base rebate of $175 for all senior homeowners with household incomes between $35,000 and $50,000.  Expand the supplemental 500 and $1,675 to $2,000, respectively in each proposal.  Total rebates may not exceed property tax paid. Based on these parameters, the analysis finds the following results for increasing the supplemental rebate to $1,500:  The new Hits: 27
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This Hits: 27
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports avail- able to the public Hits: 26
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This Hits: 26
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review Hits: 26
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 24, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office Brewers’ and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the Hits: 25
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf This report provides an updated forecast of statewide school district property taxes based on the latest published revenue data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The most recent school district collections for FY 2020-21 in late Spring 2022. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2021-22 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2022-23 through FY 2025- Hits: 25
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf the latest data are for 2020 Q4. All other data for CY 2021 are preliminary or are estimates by IFO based on recent tax data. The data show the following trends: ▪ State personal income expanded rapidly in 2020 Q2 and Q3 at the onset of the pandemic. Those individuals receive the largest net benefit from enhanced unemployment benefits. The study is based on a median worker that earns roughly $1,000 per week ($52,000 annu- ally), but 60% of PUA recipients Hits: 25
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 25
Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdf 2006 limits the annual increase in school district millage rates to a computed statewide index with certain exceptions. 1 The base Act 1 Index is calculated by averaging the percentage increase in the Pennsylvania Statewide Average Weekly Wage (SAWW) and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for elementary/secondary schools. 2 Some school districts are subject to the base index as the limit for millage rate increases while others have an adjusted index based on the district’s personal Hits: 25
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to Mar- row Donation Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports avail- able to the public Hits: 24
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf increase by 1.6 percent and 2.0 percent. Table 1.2 displays economic trends for recent quarters based on the latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The wages-salaries paid was $338 billion and comprised roughly 78 percent of the state personal income tax (PIT) base. Wages and salaries also motivate most of the growth in sales tax revenues because Pennsylvania consumers effectively pay the majority of those Hits: 24
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf analysis of the federal Family First Prevention Services Act (Family First). Family First provides new federal funding for certain evidence- based prevention services, but limits federal funding for congregate foster care placements. In addition, your letter raised particular areas of concern First Prevention Services Act The Family First Prevention Services Act of 2018 shifts Title IV-E federal funding to prevention-based services for children and families who are at risk of foster care placement and for pregnant or parenting foster youth Hits: 24
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf 1.7 percent (2019) and 2.0 percent (2020). Table 1.2 displays economic trends for recent quarters based on the latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The wages-salaries paid was $338 billion and comprised roughly 78 percent of the state personal income tax (PIT) base. Wages and salaries also motivate most of the growth in sales tax revenues because Pennsylvania consumers effectively pay the majority of those Hits: 24
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf the latest data are for 2020 Q4. All other data for CY 2021 are preliminary or are estimates by IFO based on recent tax data. The data show the following trends: ▪ State personal income expanded rapidly in 2020 Q2 and Q3 at the onset of the pandemic. Those individuals receive the largest net benefit from enhanced unemployment benefits. The study is based on a median worker that earns roughly $1,000 per week ($52,000 annu- ally), but 60% of PUA recipients Hits: 24
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf Number 2256. These bills are identical and were introduced in the 2011-2012 Legislative Session. This analysis is based on the exemption described in those bills. The proposed SUT exemption for fixed-wing aircraft, parts and MRO would be an expansion exemptions can be found throughout the United States and differ considerably between and within regions. Exemptions may vary based on the use, type, maximum certificated takeoff 2 See section 204(67) and (68) of the act of March 4, 1971 (P Hits: 23
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf main responsibilities. One is to review legislation affecting public employee retirement systems. The other is to study, on a continuing basis, public employee retirement system policy as implemented at both the Com- monwealth and local government levels, the interrelationships of the P.S. §§ 896.101-896.1103), a postretirement adjustment is paid to certain retired munici- pal police officers and firefighters based upon the date of retirement and years since retirement. Act 64 of 2002 amended the Special Ad Hoc Municipal Police Hits: 23
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This Hits: 23
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf various Pennsylvania state tax credits every five years. 1 The IFO must submit all tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget (PBB) Board for approval and make the reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies to the full reports published on the IFO website. 1 Act 48 of 2017 is also known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. Page 2 - This page intentionally left blank. – Page 3 Film Production Report Cycle 2019 Hits: 22
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. Currently, the PTRR program provides base rebates of $250 to $650 to certain homeowners with household incomes under $35,000. The program also provides supplemental rebates tax burden. Your letter specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant to the estimates:  Establish a new base rebate of $175 for all senior homeowners with household incomes between $35,000 and $50,000.  Expand the supplemental Hits: 22
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf the fiscal year 2018-19 budget proposal. For the upcoming year, the fulfillment of new statutory duties related to performance-based budgeting (PBB) and tax credit reviews will engage much of the office’s resources. A schedule for PBB and tax collective bargaining agreements, (3) provide an economic analysis of any revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget, (4) publish performance‐based budgeting reports for executive agencies, (5) publish tax credit review reports and (6) at the request of members of the Hits: 22
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf preliminary and could be revised substantially.  Wage and salary growth decelerated notably in the first half of CY 2023 based on year-to-date collections, but the latest data continue to show solid gains. The deceleration reflects a partial reversion likely for June due to peak inflation in June 2022 (8.8%) driven a temporary energy price spike (i.e., base year effects). The economic forecast projects deceleration to 3.8% by December 2023.  Preliminary data for 2023 Q2 show Hits: 21
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf preliminary and could be revised substantially.  Wage and salary growth decelerated notably in the first half of CY 2023 based on year-to-date collections, but the latest data continue to show solid gains. The deceleration reflects a partial reversion GDP, which is quarterly annualized. CPI-U for 2023 Q2 is for April only. Labor market data for 2023 Q2 based on April preliminary data only. Data are seasonally adjusted. 2023 Q1 and Q2 Wages and Salaries growth rate based on Hits: 21
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review Hits: 21
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf premiums paid by businesses. The quarterly data reveal a clear deceleration of inflation on a year-over-year basis since the first quarter of 2017. Only the fuels-utilities and gasoline components show infla- tionary pressures for the Philadelphia metro region Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2018 show very strong job gains on a year-over- year basis for the Pennsylvania economy (71,300 on an annual basis, not seasonally adjusted). The only exceptions are the retail and government sectors Hits: 21
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf premiums paid by businesses. The quarterly data reveal a clear deceleration of inflation on a year-over-year basis since the first quarter of 2017. Only the fuels-utilities and gasoline components show infla- tionary pressures for the Philadelphia metro region Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2018 show very strong job gains on a year-over- year basis for the Pennsylvania economy (71,300 on an annual basis, not seasonally adjusted). The only exceptions are the retail and government sectors Hits: 21
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 20
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf or (2) retirement income remains untaxed.  The potential impact on expected costs to the state if senior migration increased based on the scenario in the previous bullet. The remainder of this letter contains three sections that address these issues. For age 65 or older. It is noted that many of those individuals remain employed on a full- or part-time basis, and some may not yet receive retirement income or benefits such as Social Security and pension disbursements. Cost of Major Hits: 20
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee collective bargaining agreements, (3) provide an economic analysis of any revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget, (4) publish performance-based budgeting reports for executive agencies, (5) publish tax credit review reports and (6) at the request of members of the Hits: 19
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf the second highest state CNIT rate to a rank of 40 out of the 44 states that levy a CNIT. Based on the request, this analysis contains five sections. The first section discusses changes in state CNIT rates during the past reduce the overall effective tax rate (e.g., sales-only factor apportionment). Three states attempted to broaden their state tax base through mandatory combined reporting (New Mexico, Connecticut and Rhode Island). For 2018 to 2023, four states are scheduled to reduce Hits: 19
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf original authorizing legislation and undertaken two new statutory duties. First, the IFO published a report that outlined options for outcome-based performance measurement of executive agencies and created a prototype report to solicit feedback on its usefulness. A built-out version the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report. Provides unconventional production volumes and well counts on a quarterly basis. Top producing counties also listed. • Quarterly Revenue Review. Published after each quarter to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to Hits: 19
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf original authorizing legislation and undertaken two new statutory duties. First, the IFO published a report that outlined options for outcome-based performance measurement of executive agencies and created a prototype report to solicit feedback on its usefulness. A built-out version the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report. Provides unconventional production volumes and well counts on a quarterly basis. Top producing counties also listed. • Quarterly Revenue Review. Published after each quarter to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to Hits: 19
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf year (CY) 2022 or CY 2023. However, many analysts believe there is significant potential that the forecast could deteriorate rapidly based on high energy prices, volatile and declining equity markets and global events. Pennsylvania Economic Forecast Table 1.1 displays the forecast assumes the following Fed policy actions: ▪ At its last meeting, the Fed increased the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.50 to 1.75. It also signaled that rates could increase by a similar Hits: 18
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf calendar year (CY) 2022 or CY 2023. However, many analysts believe there is significant potential that the forecast could deteriorate based on high energy prices, volatile and declining equity markets and global events. Pennsylvania Economic Forecast Table 1.1 displays the forecast assumes the following Fed policy actions: ▪ At its last meeting, the Fed increased the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 0.75 to 1.00. It also signaled that rates could increase by a similar Hits: 18
RB-2017-5.pdf state tax rates levied on personal income, corporate net income and sales and use. Tables 4 through 6 rank states based on the average annual growth rate of (1) state tax revenues generated from those sources, (2) the three economic metrics and (3) state population. Tables 7 through 9 rank states based on the ratio of the average annual growth rates of state tax revenues to the three economic metrics. State Tax Hits: 18
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from the vin- tage 2020 and 2022 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Various other Census older residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report are made by the IFO based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Pennsylvania Depart- Hits: 18
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from the 2020 and 2021 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Various other Census products, data elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report are made by the IFO based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Pennsylvania Depart- Hits: 18
2002_drop_report.pdf implementation of DROPs, I am asking, on behalf of the Commission, that the enclosed report and draft legislation be the basis for your expeditious consideration of this important issue. Through your efforts, I am hopeful the Commonwealth can enact the necessary interest to the participant’s account also vary widely. Interest may be credited at a fixed rate, a formula rate based upon the actuarial assumed interest rate for the pension plan, a rate based upon an independent index, such as bonds Hits: 18
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf needs of residents. This report uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee type, the report ranks states in descending order based on the ratio of tax revenue to state personal income. This simple ratio is often referred to as a measure Hits: 16
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf report uses the latest data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee type, the report ranks states in descending order based on the ratio of tax revenue to state personal income. This simple ratio is often referred to as a measure of tax Hits: 16
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf factors, such as the complete phase‐out of the capital stock and franchise tax, restrain revenues and reduce the underlying base growth rate from 3.3 to 2.0 percent. Long‐Term Budget Outlook The IFO recently released its five‐year Gas Lease Fund.  Service populations that expand at a faster pace than the labor force that supports the tax base.  Healthcare inflation that outpaces general inflation and many sources of revenue. The report assumes that trend will continue into Hits: 16
2004_srpvffinal.pdf Pennsylvania, describes the findings of the Commission’s survey of volunteer firefighter retirement plans and presents the Commission’s conclusions based upon the survey findings. The report also discusses the salient policy considerations associated with the implementation of a statewide retirement Citizen participation in the volunteer fire service has a long history in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It is a tradition based largely on a strong sense of community service that appears to be in decline, not only in Pennsylvania but across Hits: 16
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf as you consider the fiscal year 2019-20 budget proposal. For the upcoming year, new statutory duties related to performance-based budgeting (PBB) and tax credit reviews will engage much of the office’s resources. A schedule for PBB plans and Ratios for PSERS and SERS .................................................................................... 22 Minimum Wage Rates by State ............................................................................................. 23 Corporate Net Income Tax by State .................................................................................... 24 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) and Tax Credit Schedule ............................ 25 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Timeline in First Year .................................. 26 1 Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 15
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf report uses the latest data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee type, the report ranks states in descending order based on the ratio of tax revenue to state personal income. This simple ratio is often referred to as a measure of tax Hits: 14
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf use. The second section analyzes the proposal to increase the state minimum wage. The analyses contained in this report are based on descriptions from the 2024-25 Governor’s Executive Budget and, where applicable, legislative language or supporting documentation provided by fiscal year (FY) 2024-25 and $271 million for FY 2028-29 (see Table 1.1). The revenue estimate is based on the annual average dollar amount of legalized cannabis purchased per adult (age 21 or older) from other states and Hits: 14
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf the economic impact due to the transfer of funds directly to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups are based on the tax returns or reported income levels of stimulus fund recipients across four income groups: (1) below $25,000 students) and (3) other technical factors that would have resulted in under- or non-payment of EIPs in CY 2020. Based on these data sources, the IFO estimates that 32% ($10.4 billion) of all EIPs flowed to residents (and any Hits: 14
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place in Table 1. The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 14
IFO_Testimony_CR_June_29_2023.pdf loss associated with the business operations of all members of the unitary group, and income is apportioned to the state based on the activity of the combined group within the state. Advocates assert that the filing method reduces a firm’s multiple" generally require separate reporting, but either allow taxpayers to elect another form of reporting, or may require combined reporting based on audits. Tax rate reflects top rate in states that have a graduated corporate income tax structure. Source: CCH State Hits: 14
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 13
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 24, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office Brewers’ and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 13
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf State Government Finances. 2 A tourism adjustment for sales tax was made for two high-tourism states: Hawaii and Nevada. Based on state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, these states are clearly outliers because (1) the of state GDP and (2) per capita production of those services is also much higher than the U.S. average. Based on these data, Hawaii’s sales tax is reduced by 21% and Nevada by 33% to account for each state Hits: 13
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf to sales taxes because they are generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 The adjustments are based on data from federal income tax returns by state (published by the IRS) and Tables SAINC4 and SAINC40 from the those states, the ratio of the dollar amounts for the “Food Service and Accommodations” sector for state gross domestic product (based on location of service provided) compared to amounts reported for state personal consumption expenditures (based upon the consumer’s state Hits: 13
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf use. The second section analyzes the proposal to increase the state minimum wage. The analyses contained in this report are based on descriptions from the 2023-24 Executive Budget and, where applicable, legislative language or supporting documentation provided by the administration in fiscal year (FY) 2024-25 and $253 million in FY 2027-28. (See Table 1.1.) The projections are based on an estimate of the average dollar amount of cannabis purchased per adult (age 21 or older) per year applied Hits: 13
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf sections. The first section analyzes general tax and revenue proposals, including the proposed expansion of the corporate net income tax base and the lowering of the tax rate. The second section analyzes the proposal to increase the state minimum wage. The analyses contained in this report are based on descriptions from the 2022-23 Executive Budget and, where applicable, legislative language provided by the administration. As necessary, assumptions Hits: 13
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf distributed to local governments and state agencies for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place in Table 1. The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 13
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place in Table 1. The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 13
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee collective bargaining agreements, (3) provide an economic analysis of any revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget, (4) publish performance-based budgeting reports for executive agencies, (5) publish tax credit review reports, (6) dynamic modeling and (7) at the request of Hits: 13
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf helpful as you consider the FY 2020-21 budget proposal. For the upcoming year, new statutory duties related to performance-based budgeting (PBB) and tax credit reviews will engage much of the office’s resources. A schedule for PBB plans and collective bargaining agreements, (3) provide an economic analysis of any revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget, (4) publish performance-based budgeting reports for executive agencies, (5) publish tax credit review reports and (6) at the request of members of the Hits: 13
CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of September 30, 2019: 1  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $23.3 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 341.  Benefit rate: weighted- pay scale from 20 to 12 steps effective October 2019. This change represents a 0.46% increase in CIVEA total base salary. 1 The referenced salary increases represent the administration’s estimated increase in total base salary for the bargaining unit Hits: 13
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf 717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 12
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf net income, insurance premiums and financial institutions), mid-sized or smaller tax types (e.g., realty transfer) and taxes not based on income or consumption (e.g., inheritance). The analysis also did not consider local earned income or sales taxes. Based on these criteria, Table 3 includes the following General Fund taxes: (1) state personal income tax, (2) state sales and Hits: 12
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf from issuing pension obligation bonds, those agencies also cannot make advance payments. Table 1 lists the five largest eligible employers (based on UAL value as of December 31, 2019), their UAL, the share of those UALs within SERS and the minimum in millions. UAL as of December 31, 2019. Source: State Employees' Retirement System. Table 1: Top Five Eligible SERS Employers Based on UAL Baseline Setoff Net Debt Net Cost/ FYE Contribution Credit Contribution Service (Savings) 2021-2025 $636 -$466 $170 $229 Hits: 12
RB-2015-04.pdf demographic information. The survey also asks respondents whether they are compensated on an hourly or non‐hourly (i.e., salary) basis. For Pennsylvania, the CPS Ðinds that workers who report they are compensated on an hourly basis comprise roughly three‐ Ðifths of total non‐farm payroll employment. For the U.S., the respective share is lower. There Hits: 12
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2020 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau with adjustments to incorporate the 2020 De- elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report are made by the IFO based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Pennsylvania Depart- Hits: 12
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf of real estate market value (2016). Computations for missing or incomplete entries. 5 March 8, 2018 Homestead Survey Results Estimates based on survey (statewide averages):  54% of school district tax property tax collections are from homestead property. Varies significantly by 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 7 Impact of 2016 Wage Growth Forecast SAWW Base ECI Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Forecast by IFO using data from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry and Hits: 11
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf  Persists even when PA economy returns to “normal” growth. Demographic trends and budget implications.  Aging populace.  Tax base erosion and expenditure cost-drivers. Short-term revenue outlook.  FY 2016-17 revenue shortfall.  Moderate growth rate projected data source. Share is percentage outflow. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. Persistent Tax Base Erosion 7/14/2017 16 Personal Income Tax.  Wage income less important. Larger share of income not subject to Hits: 11
NGPR-2016Q1.pdf gas for that entire period. “Other” includes wells with miscellaneous designations such as abandoned. All charac- terizations of wells are based on information submitted by the operator. Horizontal Detail Total 2,611 2,813 -7.2% 2,611 2,813 -7 2016. Figure 1 (next page) shows the share of total production from horizontal wells for the calendar year-to-date, based on the year wells were spud. Table 3: First Quarter Production, by Spud Year Spud Year Production Volume (bcf) Number Hits: 11
MER-2014-09.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 11
MER-2014-05.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 11
MER-2013-11.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 11
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place in Table 1. The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 11
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place in Table 1. The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 11
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, various other Census products and data sup- plied by Maynard, Budget Analyst II Ms. Maynard joined the IFO in March 2012. Primary responsibilities include leading various performance- based budgeting projects, coordinating the forecast of department expenditures and working on special projects that pertain to education, demographics, minimum wage and other Hits: 11
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdf uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 23, 2021: • Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $8.2 million. • Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 203. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate should not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-2.05%) is based on UGSOA workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 31, 2020:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $7.6 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 191.  Benefit rate: weighted- not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-1.77 percent) is based on UGSOA workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
SR2017-03.pdf Foundation State-Local Tax Burden Estimates: An Overview of Methodology” (Tax Foundation, Working Paper 10, March 2014). The adjustments are based on data from state tax returns (published by the IRS) and Tables SA4 and SA40 from the National Income and tax rates. Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 State and Local Tax Rankings Table 1 ranks states based on the ratio of the personal income tax (PIT) to personal income. 3 States may levy PIT on wages, business Hits: 10
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf tax.  Property taxes to service debt existing as of Dec. 31, 2011 retained and phased-out.  State funding based on FY 2012-13 district collections. Three sources:  Raise sales tax rate from 6% to 7%; expand tax base.  Raise PIT rate from 3.07% to 4.01%.  Transfers from Property Tax Relief Fund.  Analysis assumes Hits: 10
SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $3.6 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 46.  Benefit rate: weighted- not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-2.20 percent) is based on SEIU UC Referees workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue Hits: 10
SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $84.2 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 1,136.  Benefit rate not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-1.84 percent) is based on SEIU Healthcare workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during Hits: 10
PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $1.8 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 24.  Benefit rate: weighted- not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-2.60 percent) is based on PSEA workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of May 4, 2020:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $658.9 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 10,798.  Benefit rate not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-2.70 percent) is based on PSCOA workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $7.0 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 136.  Benefit rate: weighted- not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-2.45 percent) is based on PLEA workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $20.2 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 138.  Benefit rate: weighted- not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-0.60 percent) is based on PDA workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $20.2 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 232.  Benefit rate: weighted- not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-2.26 percent) is based on OPEIU workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $959 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 12,490.  Benefit rate: weighted- not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the increases. The turnover factor (-1.47 percent) is based on workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the years Hits: 10
MER-2014-04.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 10
MER-2014-02.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 10
ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $33 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 697.  Benefit rate: weighted-average not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-3.42 percent) is based on ISSU workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $21.0 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 308.  Benefit rate: weighted- not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-1.99 percent) is based on FOSCEP workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf known as a “flat line” Real GDP Growth Demographic Outlook Projections from the Pennsylvania State Data Center Official State Demographer Based on 2015 U.S. Census Estimates 11/15/2016 7 Three Demographic Takeaways No Surprise: A Rapidly Aging Population.  First Baby Boomers turn age 65 in 2012.  PA is 6 th oldest state based on median age (40.7 years). A Surge in Retirements During the Next Decade.  Just starting. Labor force participation Hits: 10
ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 1, 2019:  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $2.0 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 28.  Benefit rate: weighted- not be used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-1.99 percent) is based on ALES workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 10
2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place is an estimate.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 10
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf 2 60.4 61.8 60.1 Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised for 2016. Wage growth for 2017 based on withholding trends through December. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of gains, dividends, wages.  100% bonus depreciation (and corporate tax bulletin 2017-02).  Eliminate/limit deductions: broadens PA tax base. Changes to U.S. personal income tax.  More disposable income: higher PA consumer spending (sales tax).  Boost to Hits: 10
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 10
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 10
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 10
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf from the US Department of Labor - Survey of Households. Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Data are from the US Department of Labor - Survey of Establish- ments. Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. Data are from the US Department of Hits: 10
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $9 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 209. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of 43 3 million (FY 2025-26) and $3 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $9 million. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on December 20, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
UFCW_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $57 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 1,532. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of 18 million (FY 2025-26) and $22 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $60 million. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on October 24, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
SEIU_Local_668_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $571.9 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 9,743. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate 159 million (FY 2025-26) and $200 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $540 million. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on September 8, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
SEIU_Local_668_UC_Referees_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $4.8 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 56. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of 4.1 million. • There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Other State Funds. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on January 24, 2024. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
SEIU_HCPA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $99.3 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 1,175. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate 26 million (FY 2025-26) and $33 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $88 million. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on November 20, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf share of all residents age 16 or older who are working (includes self- employed) or actively seeking employment. It is based on survey data published monthly at the state and national levels. Table 2 presents the LFPR for July 2022 for For “prime working age” adults age 25 to 54, the LFPR for 2019 was 83.8%. 6 This computation is based on a noninstitutional population of 10.45 million age 16 or older that is used by the U.S. Bureau Hits: 9
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf share of all residents age 16 or older who are working (includes self- employed) or actively seeking employment. It is based on survey data published monthly at the state and national levels. Table 2 presents the LFPR for May 2022 (latest For “prime working age” adults age 25 to 54, the LFPR for 2019 was 83.8%. 9 This computation is based on a noninstitutional population of 10.44 million age 16 or older that is used by the U.S. Bureau Hits: 9
PSEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $1.8 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 21. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of FY 2025-26) and $0.6 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $1.6 million. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on December 12, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf Overview of Act 48 Implementation October 15, 2018 Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board Act 48 Overview  Act 48 of 2017 directs the IFO to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for each agency under the Governor’s jurisdiction and conduct tax credit reviews every fifth year  Hits: 9
PLEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $6 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 98. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of 51 is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on November 1, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
PDA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $22.4 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 133. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of 6 million (FY 2025-26) and $7 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $19 million. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on November 21, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
OPEIU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $22.5 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 231. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of 6 million (FY 2025-26) and $7 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $19 million. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on November 21, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
NGPR-2016Q4.pdf gas for the entire year. “Other” includes wells with miscellaneous designations such as abandoned. All charac- terizations of wells are based on information submitted by the operator. Table 1: Production Volume Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Growth 619 5.8% 7,066 6,295 12.2% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2016 and 2015 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Hits: 9
NGPR-2016Q3.pdf gas for that entire period. “Other” includes wells with miscellaneous designations such as abandoned. All char- acterizations of wells are based on information submitted by the operator. Table 1: Production Volume Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth 2016 463 5.7% 6,897 6,104 13.0% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2016 and 2015 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Hits: 9
NGPR-2016Q2.pdf gas for that entire period. “Other” includes wells with miscellaneous designations such as abandoned. All char- acterizations of wells are based on information submitted by the operator. Horizontal Detail Total 2,487 2,788 -10.8% 2,427 2,670 -9 255 6.6% 6,793 5,947 14.2% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2016 and 2015 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Hits: 9
MER-2015-06.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year Hits: 9
MER-2015-04.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2015-03.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2015-02.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2015-01.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year Hits: 9
MER-2014-12.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2014-11.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2014-10.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2014-08.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2014-07.pdf individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2014-06.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2014-03.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2014-01.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
MER-2013-12.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year Hits: 9
ISSU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $35.8 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 701. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on November 20, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf distributed to local governments and state agencies for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place in Table 1. The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 9
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place in Table 1. The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 9
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf craft policy more effectively and efficiently.  Do not want to revisit decisions.  Are budget controls necessary?  Performance-based measures: output & outcome. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 4 15.Nov.2012 Some Conventions  Select a base year for comparison purposes.  Report uses FY 2012-13.  Assume base year policy is maintained all future years Hits: 9
CIVEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $23 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 306. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of 49 no impact on the Motor License Fund, Other State Funds or Federal Funds over the four-year period. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on October 24, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
ALES_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $2.0 million. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 27. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of is $1.9 million. • There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on January 29, 2024. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
AFSCME_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of July 24, 2023: • Annual wage base of affected workforce: $1.43 billion. • Number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 27,923. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate million (FY 2025-26) and $522 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $1.41 billion. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on August 7, 2023. The Office of Administration provided Hits: 9
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over- Hits: 9
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year Hits: 9
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year Hits: 9
Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 12, 2016: • Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $18 million. 1 • Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 135. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate study produced an upward revision to wages, but that change was not implemented prior to August 12, 2016. Therefore, actual base wages of $17.1 million were increased by $0.4 million to account for the additional costs related to the Hits: 8
Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 12, 2016: 2  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $471 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 9,546.  Benefit rate: weighted- and wage rates do not change), this churning reduces total wages paid in the baseline scenario. The baseline adjustment is based on SEIU workforce data for the past three fiscal years, and the analysis assumes that trend continues during the years Hits: 8
Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 12, 2016: 2  Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $1,364 million.  Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 31,986.  Benefit rate and wage rates do not change), this churning reduces total wages paid in the baseline scenario. The baseline adjustments are based on AFSCME workforce data for the past three fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the Hits: 8
SR2017-06.pdf offices that resulted in responses from 50 counties and contributes to an understanding of the share of the property tax base that is comprised of homestead property. These data will be used to analyze proposals pertaining to property taxes in consideration of the requested information or if the county did not respond to the survey, the IFO estimated the missing values based on data from other sources. The responding counties represented approximately 80 percent of the market value of taxable property in Hits: 8
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf does it address the general fiscal condition of the PTC. The report provides annual toll revenue projections and growth rates based on multiple scenarios. The report discloses all assumptions used to project toll revenues on the Pennsylvania Turnpike, as well as U.S. toll facilities to determine a range of responsiveness for fixed-tolls (i.e., tolls that do not change based on time of day). 4 Burris finds that for each 1.0 percent increase in toll rates, demand (i.e Hits: 8
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf tax: 3.07% to 4.34%.  Increases sales tax rate: 6.0% to 7.0%.  Expands sales tax base (e.g., clothing, certain food, and certain health and professional services).  Distributions to districts increase with inflation. A 2015 3% All Districts $12,285 44.5% Notes: dollar amounts in millions. School districts were ranked from highest to lowest based on property tax collections as a percentage of total revenue. For example, the top 25% contains the school districts with Hits: 8
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee collective bargaining agreements, (3) provide an economic analysis of any revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget, (4) publish performance-based budgeting reports for executive agencies, (5) publish tax credit review reports, (6) dynamic modeling and (7) at the request of Hits: 8
EPLC_April_2024.pdf Policy & Leadership Center • Revenue estimates | Economic & demographic trends • Economic analysis of executive revenue proposals • 5-Year Economic & Budget Outlook • Performance-based budgeting | Tax credit reviews • Pension analysis | Dynamic modeling | Economic impact • Analyze impact of collective bargaining agreements Special Studies and Legislative 26.7% 25.9% 26.7% 27.0% Notes: Total (16-74) and 65-74 are estimates by the IFO based on U.S. participation rates for age groups and Pennsylvania’s population levels above age 65. Source: U.S. BLS Hits: 8
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage March 4, 2022 2 Today’s Presentation for a $2.19 billion one-time transfer. Expenditure Outlook: Strong Growth for FY 2022-23 March 4, 2022 19 Base Yr Avg Ann 21-22 22-23 Growth 26-27 Growth Education $15.03 $15.60 3.8% $17.06 Hits: 8
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation related closure of a payment processing facility. Revenue Outlook: Weak Growth for FY 2021-22 February 19, 2021 17 Adjusted Base Yr Avg Ann FY 20-21 FY 21-22 Growth FY 25-26 Growth Personal Income $14.47 $15.03 Hits: 8
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues:  Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?)  Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews  Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s and DB-DC pensions. Income Maintenance includes UI, SNAP and other miscellaneous programs. Income sources include adjustments for unreported income based on IRS Tax Gap studies. Sources: Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Social Security Administration. Computations by Hits: 8
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place is an estimate.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 8
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf 4,5 Capital gains data are from the Internal Revenue Service. 6 State Rankings Table 1 ranks states based on the ratio of income tax to personal income for the personal income tax (PIT) and the corporate income tax (CIT). 7 tax burden. Moreover, states such as Texas, Ohio and Delaware levy significant fees on corporations that are not based on net income. Under current law, Pennsylvania will fully phase-out the capital stock and franchise tax by tax year 2014. Hence Hits: 7
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf share of all residents age 16 or older who are working (includes self- employed) or actively seeking employment. It is based on survey data published monthly at the state and national levels. Table 2 presents the LFPR for September 2022 for time) and possible health impacts from long COVID. 4 This update focuses on the impact of long-term demographic trends. Based on the latest data, the analysis finds that slightly more than one-half of the contraction of the state labor Hits: 7
RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. These updated estimates are based on recent data releases from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Safety Council and the to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic for 2017 to 2019, updated figures for 2020 and estimates for 2021 based on full-year, preliminary data. After three years of relatively flat total death counts, the 2020 data show an increase Hits: 7
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic for 2017 to 2019, preliminary figures for 2020 and estimates for 2021 based on data through September 2021. After three years of relatively flat total deaths, the 2020 data show an increase of in 2021. For 2020, the total deaths data are preliminary and will be revised. For 2021, total deaths data are based on data through September and assume the recent average of 2,560 deaths per week occurs for the remainder of Hits: 7
RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdf figure will decline to 186,300 (-13.7%). Although the number of individuals receiving care in a community setting (community-based waiver services) has increased 13% since 2019, demand for institution-based care continues to outpace supply. Based on a recent industry survey, the average number of state residents on a nursing Hits: 7
RB-2019-01.pdf remitted in April 2019. 1 This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place Hits: 7
RB 2019 RACP.pdf and property damage, and flood) thresholds. It should be noted that RACP payments are made on an on-going reimbursement basis. Grantees apply for periodic reimbursement by submitting formal payment requests to the GBO. The initial payment request must include construction Allocations Table 1 displays RACP data since its inception in 1986. Because the GBO approves awards, the data are grouped based on the gubernatorial administration that coincides with a project’s release date. Table 2 displays the top 10 counties that Hits: 7
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf wage growth ~+4.3%.  Split: +1.0% job gains | +3.3% average wage. Non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: ~+5% last six months.  Motor vehicle purchases continue to lag. PA inflation remains subdued.  For 2018 Gasoline 25.8% 8.5% 14.2% 12.4% 10.0% Note: All growth rates are year-over-year and based on the latest published values from federal agencies. Net job gains based on non-seasonally adjusted data and exclude self- Hits: 7
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf 42 11 39 44 Property 6 3 29 25 24 21 Total Taxes 1 9 11 16 24 36 Note: Based on the ratio of state-local tax revenue to modified state personal income. Total Taxes excludes severance taxes. Source: State History and Forecast March 1, 2019 20 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% SAWW BASE ECI Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. FY 2020-21 and beyond are forecasted by IFO using data from the Pennsylvania Hits: 7
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf PBB Overview and Agency Highlights PennDOT Human Services (Part 2) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 27, 2021 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 3 Agencies ▪ PennDOT | Human Services (Part 2) ▪ Pennsylvania State Police | Military and Veterans Affairs Alternative budget framework Hits: 7
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 All School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Note: Includes Current and Interim, Act 1 Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Forecast, IFO (February 2021). Act 1 Base Index is average of SAWW and ECI COVID-19 March 17, 2021 Act 1 Index Components: Actual and Forecast 3 Hits: 7
NGPR-2018Q3.pdf 954.0 4,465.0 12.9% 100.0% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2017 and 2018 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Well Count Trends Table 3 displays the number of wells in the third quarter of 2018 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,431 producing horizontal wells in the third quarter Hits: 7
NGIFE-2018.pdf remitted in April 2018. 1 This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place Hits: 7
MTR-2017-05.pdf Finance Agency show that median PA home values increased by 4.0% in 2017 Q1 on a year-over-year basis. 2 A final factor could be weak business spending. Analysts estimate that business purchases may comprise one-third of the PA sales tax base. Unfortunately, state- level business profit or purchases data are not available. Hence, it is not clear why PA sales tax Hits: 7
MTR-2015-11.pdf commodities and average annual growth rates (AAGR) from 2005 to 2015. The data represent the total dollar value of exports, based on the state from which the merchandise begins its journey to the port of export. For some commodities, export values plastics and rubber products (8.8% AAGR). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1,808 Hits: 7
MTR-2015-09.pdf Service (IRS) recently released new data that capture interstate migration patterns for calendar years 2012 and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania, more than five million federal tax returns were matched between percent), but a much smaller share of the dollar amount reported on tax returns (-$162 million). These age classifications are based on the age of the primary taxpayer and will include some younger dependents. The IRS migration data differ from U Hits: 7
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf hr ▪ Smaller potential loss in jobs (mostly not filling vacant positions) ▪ Moderate gains to General Fund revenues CNIT Proposal: Broaden Base and Phase in Reduced Rate March 31, 2022 8 Broaden CNIT Base ▪ Broaden current addback provision (+$500M for full year) ▪ Codify Economic Nexus (scored with market-based sourcing) ▪ Adopt market-based sourcing Hits: 7
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf GDP +0.7% growth, +0.3% consumer spending. The Revenue Forecast.  All forecasts except tobacco and IPT underperform.  Base growth rate for FYTD is negative (-1.0%).  Net revenue gains from transfers / tax law changes. The Big Picture 19.3% Note: All growth rates are year-over-year. Wage growth for 2017 Q1 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value Hits: 7
Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 12, 2016: • Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $196 million. • Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 3,650. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of employees and wage rates do not change), this churning reduces total wages paid in the baseline scenario. 3,4 Based on these data, the general methodology for the projected increase in wage and benefit payments due to the agreements is Hits: 7
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place is an estimate.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 7
About IFO recommendations and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. To submit a Right-to-Know request, please visit our RTK University. Karen Maynard Fiscal Analyst III Ms. Maynard joined the IFO in 2012 and her primary responsibilities include leading performance-based budgeting projects, coordinating forecasts of department expenditures and forecasting the Lottery Fund. Other responsibilities include working on special projects pertaining Hits: 7
Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 12, 2016: • Total annual wage base of affected workforce: $4 million. • Total number of full-time equivalent employees covered: 80. • Benefit rate: weighted-average rate of of employees and wage rates do not change), this churning reduces total wages paid in the baseline scenario. 2,3 Based on these data, the general methodology for the projected increase in wage payments due to the agreement is as follows Hits: 6
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf economic or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 requires that SERS conduct three types of analyses based on published industry guidelines: (1) scenario, (2) simulation and (3) sensitivity. 2 The IFO summary must include a calculation of scenario analysis. The report includes 11 scenarios, one simulation and one sensitivity analysis. The report separates scenarios into three groups based on risk factors: • Investment Risk - Investment performance exceeds or fails to meet the assumed rate of return (6.875% net Hits: 6
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf and Garden Retail 1 4 2.0 9.9 Limited-Service Restaurants -3 3 -2.0 1.6 Note: Order based on Nov 2022 job change. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. Federal Pandemic Baseline Forecast: Big 3 Tax Revenues January 24, 2023 12 Corp Net Income +1.7% avg ann growth (AAGR) from base year PIT Non-Wage +4.7% AAGR Sales and Use +2.9% AAGR PIT Withholding +4.1% AAGR PA Economy Hits: 6
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf Child Care Development and Block Grant of 2014 (CCDBG). 2 Under the block grant, Pennsylvania must certify that its CCW base rate paid to participating child care providers is sufficient to ensure equal access compared to families paying private tuition at and the next survey should be compiled by 2025. The 2022 MRS includes 570 unique private rates throughout the Commonwealth. Based on the distribution of those private rates, a 2022 base subsidy rate was computed (also known as Maximum Child Care Hits: 6
RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdf review, a formal analysis will be published as required by statute. Those more detailed reviews will vary from this analysis based on the final negotiated terms of each CBA, changes in payroll assumptions and the turnover factor applicable to each collective have lower salaries. The turnover factor typically reduces the impact of the CBA salary adjustments by roughly 2% per annum. Base Employees Salary 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 CBAs 1 42,489 $2,314 $143 $249 $335 $427 Hits: 6
RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdf Qualified income for purposes of the PTRR program excludes 50% of Social Security. Supplemental rebates equal to 50% of the base PTRR rebate are paid to high burden homeowners or those homeowners located in specified local jurisdictions. These supplemental rebates are The average rebate increases $242. The average increase for homeowners is $211 and the average increase for renters is $319. ▪ Based on income level, the shares (in dollars) are as follows: $8,000 or less (36.4%); $8,001 to $15 Hits: 6
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf Insurance Program (CHIP). The FMAP is the share of program expenditures covered by the federal government and varies by state based on average per capita income. The three types of FMAP rates discussed in this brief are: (1) traditional, (2) newly expires on March 31, 2023, DHS will begin the redetermination process for all current enrollees. Individuals who no longer qualify based on income or other criteria will be redetermined to either (1) qualify for another Medicaid-funded program (e.g., Medical Hits: 6
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf comprised 42.4 percent of school district funds for FY 2016-17. Table 2 groups school districts into four quartiles based on the share of funding provided by property taxes. For the top quartile, property taxes provided nearly two-thirds of 596 30.1% 4 $1,344 16.9% ===== =========== Total $13,052 42.4% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Quartile is based on real estate collections as a share of total revenue. The first quartile consists of the 125 districts with the Hits: 6
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf 47.5 Rapidly Aging Population.  First Baby Boomers turn age 65 in 2012.  PA is 6th oldest state based on median age (40.7 years). Surge in Retirements.  Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for 65 dollar millions. Main elements driving the structural imbalance are unchanged.  Demographic trends affect revenues and expenditures.  Slow tax base erosion and modest revenue growth.  Non-discretionary spending continues to drive expenditure growth. Recent policy changes (partially) addressed the Hits: 6
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf and Jobs Composition Changes. Expenditure and Revenue Implications. • Expenditures Affected by Population Growth in Groups. • Aging Populace Contributes to Tax Base Erosion. 3 Today’s Presentation 12.May.2016 Demographic Trends All Projections from Penn State Data Center Reflects US Census of income not subject to tax. • Wage income less important. • Non‐taxable income: Social Security, Pensions, IRAs. 25 Persistent Tax Base Erosion 12.May.2016 AAGR PA Economy ‐ Nominal Gross Domestic Product 3.2% Sales Tax Base PA Personal Consumption Expenditures Hits: 6
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf FY 18-19: tax revenue growth of +4.2%.  Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy.  Corporate base expansion enhances revenues.  Tight labor market sustains wage growth.  Inflation accelerates above 2%. Helps pricing power. June.12 Look to tax revenues.  Final personal income tax payments up +11.7%. Spending - non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. Strong Labor Market = Income Hits: 6
PICPA_Presentation.pdf Today’s Presentation June 7, 2017 2 Revenue Update for FY 2016-17. Negative (base) revenue growth through May. Revenue shortfall approaches ~$1.0 billion. Economic Update. Lots of jobs created, does not translate to state-local tax burden similar to U.S. average. Factors That Affect Revenue Shortfall Taxable consumer spending is weak.  Base sales tax growth is +0.7% Jan. to May 2017.  Much lower than income growth (~+3.0% to +3 Hits: 6
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx and Bone Marrow Donation Mobile Telecom Broadband Research and Development Keystone Innovation Zones DCED PBB Highlights Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 23, 2020 2/27/2020 0 Tax Credit Reviews - Overview Tax credit reviews have four objectives ▪ Identify Unique features of high-tech sectors ▪ Computer design | internet publishing | engineers | manufacturing ▪ Wages pay far above average | many are export based ▪ Positive synergies, spillovers, clustering and agglomeration effects January 23, 2020 2 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis Hits: 6
NGPR-2019Q3.pdf 466.1 5,036.5 12.8% 100.0% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2018 and 2019 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Well Count Trends Table 3 displays the number of wells in the third quarter of 2019 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 9,116 producing horizontal wells in the third quarter Hits: 6
NGPR-2018Q4.pdf 354.3 6,115.1 14.2% 100.0% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2017 and 2018 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Well Count Trends Table 3 displays the number of wells in the fourth quarter of 2018 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,606 producing horizontal wells in the fourth quarter Hits: 6
NGPR-2018Q2.pdf 631.1 2,895.4 10.0% 100.0% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2017 and 2018 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Well Count Trends Table 3 displays the number of wells in the second quarter of 2018 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,194 producing horizontal wells in the second quarter Hits: 6
NGPR-2018Q1.pdf 309.2 1,439.2 9.9% 100.0% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2017 and 2018 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Well Count Trends Table 3 displays the number of wells in the first quarter of 2018 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 7,913 producing horizontal wells in the first quarter Hits: 6
NGPR-2017Q3.pdf no gas for that entire period. “Other” includes wells with miscellaneous designations such as abandoned. All characterizations of wells are based on information submitted by the operator or DEP. Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 726 8.7% 7,022 7,645 8.9% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2016 and 2017 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Hits: 6
NGPR-2017Q1.pdf no gas for that entire period. “Other” includes wells with miscellaneous designations such as abandoned. All characterizations of wells are based on information submitted by the operator. Horizontal Detail Total 2,610 2,614 0.2% 2,610 2,614 0 304 6.6% 6,605 7,187 8.8% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2016 and 2017 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Hits: 6
NGIFE-2016.pdf remitted in April 2017. 1 This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place Hits: 6
MTR-2017-08.pdf OFFICE - 1 Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), “Analysis of Over- dose Deaths in Pennsylvania, 2016,” July 27, 2017. 2 IFO calculation based on DEA data. 3 CNN Money, “The Opioid Crisis is Draining America of Workers,” July 27, 2017. 4 Alan B U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 6
MTR-2016-09.pdf food at home”) have declined in the U.S. (-0.9%) and Philadelphia (-1.2%) on a year-over-year basis. The latest reading shows that overall food price levels in the U.S. have declined for 9 consecutive months, which U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 6
MTR-2016-06.pdf state economic data typically lags national sources. One timely indicator of the state economy is employment growth, which remains solid. Based on data from the first five months of the year, the state is on pace to add 54,500 jobs U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 6
MTR-2016-04.pdf for Pennsylvania, as sales increased by 9.8% and average prices increased by 1.2% on a year-over-year basis. The Commonwealth levies a tax of 1.0% on the final transaction price of all home and business sales. This U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 6
MTR-2016-02.pdf non-financial corporations decreased $56.5 billion (-4.3%) in the third quarter of 2015 on a year-over-year basis. 1 For the fourth quarter, analysts project that earnings will continue to decline by 2% to 10% compared to the 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 6
MTR-2016-01.pdf owners of S corporations. January 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State Area Employment Data- base. Data exclude military personnel and agricultural workers. 2015 Level Change Since 2007 Number Share Number Percent Mining 36.4 0 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 6
MTR-2015-10.pdf ensure that their benefits are not eroded by inflation. Annual COLAs are determined by the U.S. Department of Labor based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures inflation’s effect on 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 6
MTR-2015-08.pdf total Pennsylvania payroll employment. The Federal Reserve’s capital requirements will continue to increase under the international agreement known as Basel III. Under this agreement, the Federal Reserve requires banks to increase their stores of capital to protect against future recessions 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 6
Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf future depreciation deductions that would have been available if the firm had sold the existing machinery (with $40,000 of basis left) and then purchased the machinery from Firm B for $90,000. Thus, the deferred capital gain equals the foregone Section 179 or utilized 50 percent bonus depreciation, and it is possible that the firm has little or no cost basis left only a few years after the original purchase. A firm that sells a four-year old vehicle with a Hits: 6
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf  No refundable income tax credits  Income tax exempts all retirement income  Tax forgiveness credit  Sales tax base excludes groceries State Corporate Income Taxes in Decline  Federal & state corp taxes falling as % of GSP, income, total taxes  Decline is more rapid at state level  Collections simply not keeping pace with the tax base (profits)  Reason #1: income shifting  Reason #2 : federal tax cuts and incentives  Reason #3: state tax cut Hits: 6
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf to a future date. This October update may be used in its place as the forecasts are largely based on the same data. However, this report only updates revenue projections for FY 2020-21 and does not consider future years. Nor Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank- Economic Update | Page 1 Economic Update The Pennsylvania economic forecast is based on the latest data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through Hits: 6
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place is an estimate.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 6
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf debt service. Calculation of real estate tax millage. • Implications for taxpayers. 16.Dec.2014 3 Presentation Overview District-wide tax base with uniform tax rates. Focus on district-level administrative consolidation. Two snapshots with FY 2012-13 as base year: • Individual districts. • Consolidated district. 16.Dec.2014 4 Scope and Assumptions For the purpose of computing real estate tax Hits: 5
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf annum. The table then separates all households into three groups: low income, middle income and upper income. These groups are based on definitions used by the Pew Research Center. 3 Low income is defined as households with income less than two- middle income range is $33,970 to $101,410. For 2018, the respective values are $40,730 and $121,570. Based on these income groups, the data show that:  The number of low-income households increased from 33.9 to Hits: 5
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf impact from COVID-19 and provide a preview of revenue estimates for FY 2020-21. The estimates represent potential outcomes based on the length of mandated business closures under two scenarios. Scenario 1 assumes a six-week closure that ends April all U.S. corporations because estimates are not published for states. The following scenarios were used for CY 2020:  Based on workers affected by business closures, wages-salaries decline by -1.0 percent (Scenario 1) and -1.7 percent (Scenario Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf AAGR FYE 12-18 Growth 18-19 Growth 19-20 Non-Motor Sales Tax 2.8% 6.5% 3.8% Base/Normal Growth 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% All Internet Sales 0.6% 2.2% 0.8% Federal TCJA Impact --- 0.8% --- Residual Growth --- 0.7% 0.2% Note: Base Non-Motor Vehicle growth for FY 18-19 and FY 19-20 determined by historical relationship between income and sales Hits: 5
REU-2020-02.pdf Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth rate of advance retail sales based on latest three months of data. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. PA: Annual growth rate of sales Hits: 5
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf benchmark” more timely jobs data published monthly by the BLS in their Current Employment Survey (CES) data series, which are based on surveys and imputed jobs created by new firms. In March, the BLS will release state-level CES jobs data be resolved and the published CES data will be revised down to more closely approximate the QCEW data that are based on administrative records. The revised level for 2023 Q4 will likely approach the pre-Covid average of 55,000 job Hits: 5
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf expected to increase 5.5%. The difference in growth rates is the result of receiving tax collections on a delayed basis. Due to the initial state revenue loss from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (DOT) reduced FY DOT and may be used to offset the initial program reduction. 8 See the IFO’s Department of Transportation Performance-Based Budget Report. Figure 2 State Gas Tax Revenue and Consumption Source: DOR and various Governor's Executive Budget documents. Note Hits: 5
RB-2016-02.pdf 55,000 Allows a tax credit of 10 percent (20 percent for small businesses) for research expenses incurred over a base amount. Strategic Development Areas Nominal Nominal Provides tax exemptions and credits to businesses locat‐ ed in the area that create grants to non‐profit entities and oversees state‐run marketing campaigns. This report separates economic development expenditures into two tables based on the fund from which they are made: (1) General Fund and (2) all other (special) funds. Unless noted otherwise Hits: 5
PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf 18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Note: Includes Current and Interim, Act 1 Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Forecast, IFO (February 2020). $13.0 b $15.3 billion total $9.1 billion homeowner $18.6 b Act 1 Base Index is average of SAWW and ECI Homeowner portion is ~58% of total paid Replacing Homeowner School Property Tax Personal Hits: 5
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO based on published data through August 2014. 13 3.Dec.2014 Change in Employment: 2003 to 2014 0.70 0.80 ACA. Continued Contraction for Government Sector. • Federal government sheds Postal Service jobs. • Local gov’t contracts due to shrinking pupil base and pensions. Exception: Labor Force Participation Rates. • Forecast assumes a small increase for younger workers. 3.Dec.2014 A Continuation Hits: 5
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 -$168.5 Corporate – rate and tax base -133.8 -129.2 Corporate - tax on foreign profits 42.6 40.5 Total Tax Cut -280.0 -257.2 Look to tax revenues.  Final personal income tax payments up +13.0%. Spending - non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. Recent Economic Acceleration June Hits: 5
PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf 2022 Performance-Based Budget Board Hearing for the Dept. of Education Motion to Amend and Resubmit At this time, pursuant to Section 7 Act 48 of 2017, I am making a motion to direct the IFO to amend and resubmit the 2022 performance-based budget review for the Department of Education by May 16, 2022 with the following recommendations: 1. Include citations for PDE Hits: 5
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf PBB Overview and Agency Highlights PEMA Dept of State Dept of Environmental Protection Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 22, 2020 Performance Based Budgeting (PBB) Alternative budget framework driven by performance metrics  Output | efficiency | outcomes | benchmarks  Link funding levels to outcome Hits: 5
NGPR-2019Q4.pdf 115.1 6,815.0 11.4% 100.0% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2018 and 2019 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Well Count Trends Table 3 displays the number of wells in the fourth quarter of 2019 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 9,319 producing horizontal wells in the fourth quarter Hits: 5
NGPR-2019Q2.pdf 897.6 3,321.1 14.6% 100.0% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2018 and 2019 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Well Count Trends Table 3 displays the number of wells in the second quarter of 2019 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,897 producing horizontal wells in the second quarter Hits: 5
NGPR-2019Q1.pdf 441.3 1,653.9 14.7% 100.0% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2018 and 2019 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Well Count Trends Table 3 displays the number of wells in the first quarter of 2019 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,765 producing horizontal wells in the first quarter Hits: 5
NGPR-2017Q4.pdf no gas for that entire year. “Other” includes wells with miscellaneous designations such as abandoned. All characterizations of wells are based on information submitted by the operator or DEP. Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2016 2017 Growth 937 8.9% 7,180 7,891 9.9% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2016 and 2017 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Hits: 5
NAP-2018-03.pdf contributions, donations of any food of nutritional value may also be eligible for credit. Credits for food donations are awarded based on a cost per pound valuation. Enterprise Zone Program Tax Credit (EZP) – Provides a tax credit of up to 25 EZP project. Under the NAP, SPP, NPP and CFP, a nonprofit neighborhood organization (applicant) applies to DCED for tax credits based on pending contributions from private for-profit companies (contributors) to fund an eligible project in a distressed area. The neighborhood Hits: 5
MTR-2018-1.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2018-07.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 based on: (1) the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the IFO Official Revenue Estimate published on June 18, 2018 and U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 5
MTR-2018-04.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2018-03.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2018-02.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-12.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-11.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-10.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-09.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-07.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-06.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-04.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-03.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-02.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2017-01.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2016-12.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2016-11.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2016-10.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2016-08.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2016-05.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2016-03.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MTR-2015-07.pdf 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Department of Labor—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, BLS. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 5
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf other rates are year-over-year. Sales tax adjusts for shifts and transfers. Wages-Salaries growth rate for 2021 Q1 based on withholding tax collections. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor Force is change from prior year. Labor market data not seasonally adjusted. Data for 2021 Q1 based on January and February. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf month settlement price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which Pennsylvania’s Impact Fee is based, is $5.84 per MMBtu for October. This is the highest monthly price recorded since enactment of the fee in that reveal an overall monthly rental price in Pennsylvania of $1,129, an 11.5% increase from the prior year (based on five metro areas, weighted average for studios to 4 bedroom apartments). Rents in Philadelphia increased 12.4% on a Hits: 5
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the number of wells located within their boundaries or their proximity to jurisdictions where natural gas extraction took place. The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 5
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdf in the transmission to the General Assembly. The IFO may provide additional fiscal or economic analysis on an ad hoc basis, if the legislation has expanded impacts that warrant further consideration or explanation outside of the contracted actuaries’ direct scope. The a potential material impact, the IFO will contact the systems and attempt to score out the impact of the proposal based on data and analysis supplied by the systems. The IFO will include any relevant analysis or commentary from the systems Hits: 5
IFO ppt.pdf transparent. – Projections motivated by economics and demographics. – Focus on growth rates, not absolute levels. • Use FY 2011-12 as the “base year” for all projections. Assume “Current Policy.” Apply economic and demographic growth rates. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic slowly. – Banks lending. Bad loans being flushed out. – Profits and Balance Sheets strong. Ready to expand. • Consumer Sentiment/Confidence key. Base much of outlook on labor market reports, especially unemployment rate. • For PA, state-local govt reductions appear to have abated Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf patterns Baseline Forecast: Big 3 Tax Revenues November 15, 2022 14 Corp Net Income +1.7% avg ann growth from base year PIT Non-Wage +4.7% Sales and Use +2.9% PIT Wage +4.1% PA Economy +4.1% Notes 20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 17-18 = 1.00 COVID base year Cap Gain +85% Revenues: Short- and Long-Term Growth November 15, 2022 15 22-23 23-24 Growth 27- Hits: 5
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf 18 Executive Budget and Feb. 7, 2017 budget presentation. The Revenue Package February 28, 2017 5 2017-18 Broaden Tax Base Sales – Custom Programming $330 Sales – Storage and Aircraft 160 Insurance Premiums Tax 142 Tax Reform Corporate – Combined Reporting 0 Corporate 1.7% Jobs +0.7% Age 20-64 -0.3% Revenues Weak Through February February 28, 2017 11 Actual Amounts Base Amounts 2016-17 Change Growth Change Growth Total General Fund $17,973 $218 1.2% -$9 -0.1% Corporate Net Hits: 5
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf IFO’s revenue estimates to actual revenues. • Mid-Year Update. Published in January. Revised revenue estimate for the current year based on actual collections for the first half of the fiscal year and expectations for the second half. Special Reports and Analyses (issued since January 1, 2013): • Proposed Sales Tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair • Corporate Tax Base Erosion: Analysis of Policy Options • An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania • Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 to Hits: 5
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review:  Identify the purpose were approved but did not receive a credit. January 24, 2019 5 Background - Job Creation 25 states have a broad-based jobs tax credit.  Many different varieties. Difficult to compare across states.  Overall, PA is less generous than most Hits: 4
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf fund supports the Pennsylvania horse racing industry through purse prizes, racehorse award programs and horsemen’s organizations. Final distributions are based on racing activity and revenues and are projected to total $203.5 million in the current fiscal year. • Redevelopment Assistance million in future investments. The IFO projects $100 million in payments for FY 2022-23; however, actual payments will be based on reimbursement requests and cash availability. • Two programs administered by the Ben Franklin Technology Development Authority (BFTDA) have budgeted increases Hits: 4
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 1/24/2019 0 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review were approved but did not receive a credit. January 24, 2019 5 Background - Job Creation 25 states have a broad-based jobs tax credit. ▪ Many different varieties. Difficult to compare across states. ▪ Overall, PA is less generous than most other states Hits: 4
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review:  Identify the purpose were approved but did not receive a credit. January 24, 2019 5 Background - Job Creation 25 states have a broad-based jobs tax credit.  Many different varieties. Difficult to compare across states.  Overall, PA is less generous than most Hits: 4
Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf  High Corporate Net Income Tax (CNIT) rate  Regular property assessments not required LOCAL  Local earned income tax base differs from state income tax base  Localities rely on local gross receipts taxes (GRTs), including Mercantile and Business Privilege Taxes  Localities levy antiquated Occupation Hits: 4
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf economic or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 requires that SERS conduct three types of analyses based on published industry guidelines: (1) scenario, (2) simulation and (3) sensitivity. 2 The IFO summary must include a calculation of analysis. The report includes nine scenarios, one simulation and one sensitivity analysis. The report separates sce- narios into three groups based on risk factors: • Investment Risk - Investment performance exceeds or fails to meet the assumed rate of return (6.875% net Hits: 4
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf Ohio tax generally applies more broadly and uses federal adjusted gross income (AGI) with additions and deductions as the tax base. The computations below merely apply the Ohio rate structure (and personal exemptions) to Pennsylvania taxable income by range and do while another Pennsylvania resident fills the job vacancy. The dataset contains the latest state-level migration from 2019 to 2020, based on returns filed and processed during calendar years 2020 and 2021. It only includes those who filed tax returns (including Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf 61.1% 61.4% Note: All growth rates are year over year. 2022 Q2 inflation rates and labor market data based on April 2022 only. 2022 Wages and Salaries growth rates based on withholding revenues. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Monies to Pennsylvania Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf annualized growth rate. All other rates or change relative to same quarter in prior year. Wages- Salaries for CY 2021 based on adjusted withholding patterns. Other data for 2021.2 based on data for April only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Hits: 4
REU-2019-11.pdf monthly net job gains (annualized) have held steady in the most recent three-month period. On a year-over-year basis, net jobs gains have continued to decelerate since 2018Q1.  The U.S. CPI-U held steady for 2019Q3, while Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 4
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf tax revenues for these levies since state fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. These taxes are levied on a per pack basis (as opposed to price), so they should also reflect cigarette consumption trends at the national, state and city level. Prior revenues declined at an average rate of 4.2% per annum from FY 2018-19 to FY 2023-24 (estimate based preliminary data) and will be 19.1% lower than FY 2018-19 if current trends hold. The state collects the Hits: 4
RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf and phased-in lower rates to 4.99% by TY 2031. The first table separates tax returns into six groups based on tax liability for TY 2019. (Tax liability is prior to any applicable tax credits that may be applied separately the results for the “No Liability” column in the first table. The table separates all tax returns into six groups based on the value of the 100% sales apportionment factor used to apportion national profits to Pennsylvania. The top portion of Hits: 4
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf 4 The table on the next page provides detail for the $20.7 billion of loans made to Pennsylvania firms based on size of loan, type of firm and sector. Highlights include:  Firms that received a loan under $150,000 Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 legislation to provide for non-taxable treatment. 11 For Pennsylvania personal income tax, the tax base does not conform to the federal tax base, but forgiven loans would be treated as taxable income under current law Hits: 4
RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdf issues should be noted: • If economic data are impacted by unusual events, it is important to select a start or base year that represents a “normal” year to compute an accurate impact assessment. The selection of the base year could significantly alter results. This comparison uses 2019 as the base year. • It is more accurate to quantify impacts Hits: 4
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf Natural gas royalties are an important source of income for many Pennsylvania landowners. Firms pay royalties based on the revenues received from the sale of natural gas extracted from wells located on a landowner’s property. Pennsylvania Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The potential magnitude of the understatement cannot be estimated based on available data. As discussed in the methodology, the analysis does include adjustments for non-compliance and counties that have Hits: 4
QRR_2016Q1.pdf revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, September 17, 2015. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to the total due to rounding. ________________________________________ 1 For consistency, references to quarters in this report are based on the calendar quarter. The first quarter of calendar year 2016 is the third quarter of FY 2015-16. ________________________________________ 2 See Hits: 4
QRR_2015Q4.pdf revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, September 17, 2015. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to the total due to rounding. ________________________________________ 1 For consistency, references to quarters in this report are based on the calendar quarter. The fourth quarter of calendar year 2015 is the second quarter of FY 2015-16. ________________________________________ 2 See Hits: 4
QRR_2015Q3.pdf revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, September 17, 2015. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to the total due to rounding. ________________________________________ 1 For consistency, references to quarters in this report are based on the calendar quarter. The third quarter of calendar year 2015 is the first quarter of FY 2015-16. ________________________________________ 2 See Hits: 4
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 re- quires that PSERS conduct three types of analyses based on published industry guidelines: (1) scenario, (2) simulation and (3) sensitivity. 2 The IFO summary must include the ratio of period to illustrate the likelihood of potential outcomes for the system. The analysis presents five potential outcomes from the simulations based on percentiles of the distribution of outcomes. These po- tential outcomes are: • 95th Percentile: Upside simulation with strong favorable results Hits: 4
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 re- quires that PSERS conduct three types of analyses based on published industry guidelines: (1) scenario, (2) simulation and (3) sensitivity. 2 The IFO summary must include a calculation of investment return) for the first 20 years. In this scenario, General Fund appropriations increase by 62.4% compared to the base- line. The additional $29.0 billion in employer contributions greatly exceeds the savings displayed in the 2% overperformance scenario ($8 Hits: 4
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf personal income tax: 3.07% to 4.37%.  Increases sales tax rate: 6.0% to 7.0%. Expands tax base.  Distributions to school districts increase with inflation (~+2.0%). New revenues sufficient in first year, but increasing “wedge” over 18 2018-19 Increase Sales Tax Rate $1.58 $1.65 $1.71 $1.77 $1.83 Expand Sales Tax Base $4.10 $4.32 $4.55 $4.77 $5.01 Total Sales Tax Revenues $5.69 $5.97 $6.26 Hits: 4
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf potential imbalance expands to $1.87 billion in FY 2019-20 and reaches $2.19 billion by FY 2022-23 based on current policies. The imbalance is described as “potential” because policymakers have various tools to control expenditures on a temporary or permanent basis. “While long-term fiscal pressures remain, the most recent forecast constitutes an improvement compared to previous projections. Actual and assumed Hits: 4
Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf SERS: 6.25% • PSERS: 7.5%  Investment earnings. • Assumed 7.5% long-term rate of return. Actual earnings are based on market conditions. • Significant losses during the 2008-2009 recession.  Employer contributions. • Determined actuarially after accounting for fund liabilities Rate Notes: (1) Excludes health insurance contribution rate of 0.9% for PSERS. (2) The SERS normal cost is computed based on the cost of benefits earned by a new member. The PSERS normal cost is based on an average of Hits: 4
Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf that is lower than the ARC. 3/26/2015 5 Useful Terms A defined benefit (DB) plan provides retirement benefits based on members’ years of service, salary history and a “multiplier” that can vary with the class of service. Pensions under a DB plan are formula‐based and do not vary with the funding status of the plan. In contrast, defined contribution (DC) plans do not provide Hits: 4
Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf SERS: 6.25% • PSERS: 7.50%  Investment earnings. • Assumed 7.5% long‐term rate of return. Actual earnings are based on market conditions. • Significant losses during the 2008‐2009 recession.  Employer contributions. • Determined actuarially after accounting for fund liabilities Contributions Notes: (1) Excludes health insurance contribution rate of 0.9% for PSERS. (2) The SERS normal cost is computed based on the cost of benefits earned by a new member. The PSERS normal cost is based on an average of Hits: 4
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf 0% ‐27.3% ‐18.0% Year‐ over‐year growth rates for respective quarters. The growth in wages and salaries is based on personal income tax withholding. The growth in consumer prices is based on the Philadelphia CPI‐U. May 13, 2016 3 Latest Annual PA Growth Rates 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real Hits: 4
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf Note: Figures represent change in average level for calendar year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figures for 2018 based on preliminary data through December. Factors That Could Impact Growth Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal shut down (?)  0.3%.  A shift in mix of sales drives revenue gains. January 29, 2019 10 Sales and Use Tax Base Expansion January 29, 2019 11 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Non-Motor Sales Tax $8 Hits: 4
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf Legislative branches. Various mandatory duties.  General Fund revenue estimates.  Coordinate pension analysis. Analyze wage contracts.  Develop Performance-Based Budget plans for agencies. Things the office does not do:  Make policy or budget recommendations.  Produce separate budgets all property taxes. Working age is age 20 to 64. Adult population is age 20 or older. Source: IFO computations based on state and federal tax data. August.08.2018 10 Components of PA Population Change 1990 to 2000 2000 to Hits: 4
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf million PA households in 2018: ~$1,500 per household Corporate net income tax  Expansion of state corporate income tax base adds ~$160 million next year i. Eliminate Section 199 deduction, limit interest deduction ii. Any repatriation impact on tax base?  Rate cut raises Pennsylvania effective tax rate from 6.5% to 7.9% (see table) Sales and use tax Hits: 4
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf Trends  Revenue outlook is modest.  Partly due to maturation of economy.  Also due to long-term tax base erosion.  Strong growth in demand for government programs and services.  Price pressures that exceed normal inflation.  Demographic and non-tax revenues. May 24, 2017 19 Funding for Senior Programs May 24, 2017 20 68% 24% 8% Home-Based Care (DHS) = $513m General Fund Lottery Fund General Fund Other Lottery Fund PENNCARE = $317m PACE/PACENET = $185m Shared Ride = $83m Hits: 4
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf Jun Aug Oct Dec-22 Feb Econ Imp Pay = $21b PPP2 = $10b durable goods +23% all energy +46% supply chains "base year" effects money creation grocery +17% annual growth 8.8% 6.9% Consumer Price Index Growth - February 2023 March 16 March 16, 2023 13 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 Base Index 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 4.1% 5.0% 4.3% 4.0% SAWW 2.2% Hits: 4
NGPR-2017Q2.pdf no gas for that entire period. “Other” includes wells with miscellaneous designations such as abandoned. All characterizations of wells are based on information submitted by the operator or DEP. Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 523 8.2% 6,847 7,409 8.2% Notes: Horizontal wells only. This table displays 2016 and 2017 production based on the year wells were spud. For example, wells with spud year 2014 were spud during calendar year 2014, and Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_June.pdf 2017. These administrative data provide the final benchmark upon which all published state employment and wage income trends will be based. The data show a clear strengthening of the Pennsylvania labor market through 2017 in terms of net job gains. The Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for the first quarter of 2018. On a year-over-year basis, the data reveal the following growth rates for total Pennsylvania consumer debt for the first quarter: student loans (5.0% Hits: 4
MTR-2019-09.pdf is offset by higher than expected collections ($38.1 million). For the first quarter of the fiscal year, total SUT base growth was 5.1 percent over the prior year, which excludes the impact of the one-time transfer. Monthly PIT Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 4
MTR-2019-07.pdf significantly due to an extra major deposit day. Quarterly and annual payments also recorded gains, albeit on a much smaller base. SUT collections were $925.4 million for the month, an $86.0 million (-8.5 percent) reduction from the prior Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for Hits: 4
MTR-2019-06.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non -release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2019-05.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non -release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2019-04.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non -release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2019-03.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2019-02.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2019-01.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2018-12.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2018-11.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2018-10.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2018-09.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2018-08.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2018-06.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
MTR-2018-05.pdf U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Data for PA-NJ-DE-MD only published on a bi-monthly basis. For non-release months, values are an interpolation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdf entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey) The month-to-month change in payroll employment (excludes self-employed) based on total number of jobs. Payroll employment increased by 14,800 jobs in January from the prior month and continues Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf portfolio. Between 2012 and 2020, the value of housing services grew at an average rate of 3.1% per annum based on the PCE index, while home values grew at an average rate of 6.1% per annum based on the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Purchase-Only Index. Policymakers focus attention on the inflation metric, but it is Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf on consumers is more transparent. Compared to June 2021, the (preliminary) average price is now $1.85 per gallon higher. Based on recent consumption trends, the IFO estimates that Pennsylvania drivers will consume roughly 400 million gallons of gasoline in June the month. Most of the higher spending will flow out of Pennsylvania to states that have production and refining operations. Based on data from the Philadelphia metro Consumer Price Index (CPI), gasoline purchases comprise 3.0% of total purchases in the Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf 1.2%. That component comprises one-third of the CPI-U and includes imputed rent to homeowners (0.8% increase, based on survey data) and rental expenses of primary residences (2.3%). The CPI-U that excludes the Shelter component provides month settlement price of gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which Pennsylvania’s impact fee schedule is based, is $3.62 for July. This is the highest monthly price since January 2019, and it brings the 2021 average Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update as follows:  Change in Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey) The month-to-month change in payroll employment (excludes self-employed) based on total number of jobs. Payroll employment increased by 17,000 jobs in December from the prior month and continues Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update as follows:  Change in Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey) The month-to-month change in payroll employment (excludes self-employed) based on total number of jobs. Preliminary payroll employment increased by 5,600 jobs in February from the prior month, nearly Hits: 4
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf  Revenue update for FY 2016-17.  Revenue forecast for FY 2017-18. Theme: What is driving weakness?  Base General Fund growth rate is ~0.0%.  Both economic and technical factors are cause.  Inflation, business spending and Revised Estimate FY 2016-17 25.Jan.2017 14 Non-Motor SUT Growth Note: Adjusted SUT controls for expanded tax base and transfers. Uses one month lag to coincide with withholding and economic activity. Withholding growth rates are adjusted for extra Hits: 4
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf end of this report. Event and State Grant The Ironman Group operates triathlons and other multisport events on a worldwide basis. The inaugural 2023 Ironman 70.3 Pennsylvania Happy Valley Triathlon was a half triathlon comprised of three separate legs (swim Ironman Group and HVAB, and Placer.ai reports that detail the number of individuals on-site on the event day. Based on these data, a reported $818,000 was spent on event planning and production. • The Ironman Group spent $665,000 Hits: 4
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf to change in response to the tax cut and tracks material and population flows into and out of the state. Based on consultations with REMI staff, the IFO used a specific policy option that simulates changes to state gasoline and diesel employed) to expand in response to lower taxes relative to other states. • The economic expansion increases General Fund tax revenues. Based on the REMI output, state General Fund tax revenues (mainly personal income, sales and use and corporate net income) increase Hits: 4
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf recommendations and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Role in the Budget Process The statute that created the IFO collective bargaining agreements, (3) provide an economic analysis of any revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget, (4) publish performance-based budgeting reports for executive agencies, (5) publish tax credit review reports, (6) dynamic modeling and (7) at the request of Hits: 4
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf associated with the business operations of all members of the unitary group, and income is apportioned to the taxing jurisdiction based on the activity of the combined group within that jurisdiction. Those who support combined reporting note that:  the filing It is well known that determination of the unitary group is a crucial component of combined reporting and is generally based on the ownership of the group, as well as the relationships between the entities within the group. Estimating the revenue Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf used three methods.  Efficiency Initiatives - Lean, TQM, Continuous Improvement.  Cost-Benefit Analysis - PEW Results First model.  Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB). Act 48 of 2017: New PBB and tax credit review duties.  IFO to develop PBB plans for 32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 Base Revenue Package November 16, 2017 26 Note: figures in dollar millions. 2.3% 3.4% 3.1% 3.7% 3 Hits: 4
Pensions the Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) to appear in front the House and Senate Appropriations Committees on an annual basis. ... read more SB 58 Summary • Survivor Benefits 0054 Hughes Amending Titles 24 (Education) and 71 (State Government) of the Pennsylvania as State Police Officers and retired prior to July 1, 2010. Adjustments would range between $1,000 to $3,000 based on year of retirement. Adjustments would be effective for payments administered after June 30, 2023. ... read more HB 1610 Summary Hits: 4
Pensions new optional membership class, known as "Class T-F." A Class T-E member would be eligible for an annuity based upon an annual benefit accrual rate of 2% and would have a corresponding employee contribution requirement equal to 7.5% 45 days of becoming a member of the System. A Class T-F member would be eligible for an annuity based upon an annual benefit accrual rate of 2.5% and would have a corresponding employee contribution requirement equal to 10 Hits: 4
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf Annual Tax Credit Reviews Mixed-Use Development Brewers’ Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Educational Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2022 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 4 Statute: Did the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent developer to offset costs January 24, 2022 3 #2 Brewers’ Credit offsets malt beverage tax of $2.48 per barrel ▪ Based on qualified purchases of machinery/equipment up to $200k ▪ No limit on production | all brewers qualify ▪ Credits can be carried Hits: 3
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf Annual Tax Credit Reviews Manufacturing PA Resource Manufacturing Rural Jobs and Investment Waterfront Development Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 10, 2023 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 5 Statute: Did the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent maximum 5% higher payroll from newly created jobs ▪ Capped at $4 million annually ▪ Awarded on a first-come, first-served basis January 10, 2023 2 #1 Manufacturing $1.6 million in tax credits authorized by DCED for FY 21-22 ▪ 5 Hits: 3
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf billion for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2018- 19, while the UPenn Wharton School estimates a reduction of $169 billion. 1 Based on other federal tax data, the IFO estimates that the Pennsylvania share of the federal individual income tax cut is The Tax Foundation finds a similar impact, with an average tax cut that ranges from $1,350 to $1,500 based on the congressional district of the taxpayer. 3 The federal income tax changes do not directly impact state personal income Hits: 3
Tax_Modernization_Mar_2024.pdf all tax returns filed with PA Dept of Revenue (includes non-residents) Tax Modernization & Reform Slide 1 Grown to 2023 based on preliminary data Income groupings use reported PA Taxable Income Excludes retirement income (e.g., Social Security, IRAs and pensions 97 $33.20 Note: Data are from 2019 federal income tax filings by PA residents. Includes tax losses. Income range based on federal Adjusted Gross Income. Tax revenue is not computed due to use of federal tax base. Source: Internal Revenue Hits: 3
Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf fund supports the Pennsylvania horse racing industry through purse prizes, racehorse award programs and horsemen’s organizations. Final distributions are based on racing activity and revenues and are projected to total $221.4 million in the current fiscal year. • Redevelopment Assistance awards made in 2023. The IFO projects $100 million in payments for FY 2023-24; however, actual payments will be based on reimbursement requests and cash availability. • The Sports Tourism and Marketing Grants were new for FY 2022-23. While no Hits: 3
SR2017-05.pdf 62 117,249 2,925 All Counties 12,614,114 6,844,323 54 3,018,274 2,268 3 Based on the number of homesteads reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education for FY 2015-16 Act 1 Property Tax Reduction Allocations. Philadelphia data adjusted based on information from the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, State Tax Equalization Board, the Philadelphia Department Hits: 3
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf 0 25.0 Unemployment Rates U.S. Official (U3) U.S. (U6) PA Official (U3) March 31, 2023 Page 4 ▪ Based on this example, compared to all border states, Pennsylvania has the least progressive income tax system. The labor force participation claim it. The simulation finds that 20.1% of taxpayers in the fourth income quintile (60% to 80% income group based on expanded cash income) with children claimed the credit and 18.2% in the highest income quintile. By contrast, 8 Hits: 3
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf costs to the General Fund). For all other agencies, expenditure projections for FY 2023-24 through FY 2026-27 are based on the current services methodology and underlying data described in the IFO’s Five- Year Outlook Report. Projected growth rates school district property taxes paid by seniors. In FY 2019-20, statewide school district property taxes totaled $15.32 billion. Based on data published by the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), the IFO estimates that 58% of Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2022-23 was released on January 31, 2023. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year. The text that follows tax revenues exceeded forecast due to strong profits growth and (likely) a greater than expected impact on the corporate tax base from the TCJA of 2017. Most other revenue sources also came in marginally higher than forecast including: PIT ($116 million Hits: 3
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf Unemployment Assistance. PPP is Paycheck Protection Program. LWA is Lost Wage Assistance. Growth rates control for revenue shifts. Collections partially based on sales from prior month. LWA payments Factors That Motivate Upward Revenue Revision Sales and use tax much stronger than loans  Nearly all will be forgiven | IRS determines it is taxable (April 2020)  $525 billion US loans (CNIT base) | $21 billion to PA businesses (PIT base)  Estimates assume they will be effectively non-taxable  If taxable, significant Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2021-22 was released on January 31, 2022. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.  May Update This tax revenues exceeded forecast due to strong profits growth and (likely) a greater than expected impact on the corporate tax base from the TCJA of 2017. Most other revenue sources also came in marginally higher than forecast including: PIT ($116 million Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2020-21 was released on January 21, 2021. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.  May Update This tax revenues exceeded forecast due to strong profits growth and (likely) a greater than expected impact on the corporate tax base from the TCJA of 2017. Most other revenue sources also came in marginally higher than forecast including: PIT ($116 million Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf example, the mid-year update for FY 2019-20 was released on January 28, 2020. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.  May Update This revenue estimate exceeded forecast due to strong profits growth and (likely) a greater than expected impact on the corporate tax base from the TCJA of 2017. Most other revenue sources also came in marginally higher than forecast including: PIT ($116 million), licenses and Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf example, the mid-year update for FY 2018-19 was released on January 29, 2019. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.  May Update This revenue estimate exceeded forecast due to strong profits growth and (likely) a greater than expected impact on the corporate tax base from the TCJA of 2017. Most other revenue sources also came in marginally higher than forecast including: PIT ($116 million), licenses and Hits: 3
REU-2020-01.pdf Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth rate of advance retail sales based on latest three months of data. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. PA: Annual growth rate of sales Hits: 3
REU-2019-12.pdf Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth rate of advance retail sales based on latest three months of data. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. PA: Annual growth rate of sales Hits: 3
REU-2019-10.pdf Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth rate of advance retail sales based on latest three months of data. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. PA: Annual growth rate of sales Hits: 3
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf would likely produce reduced collections. The PIT estimates included in the enclosed table are calculated using the current state tax base and assume that the tax would be collected at the state level.  Under current Pennsylvania law, employee contributions to new rates for Allegheny County would be 8.5% or 9.0%. Estimates are calculated using the current state SUT base. The existing local SUTs are point of sale taxes and are only imposed on sales originating in those counties. If Hits: 3
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf income less than $70,000. The proposal provides a property tax rebate of up to $5,000 to eligible homeowners based on age and income, not to exceed actual school district property taxes paid. The table below displays estimates for (1) the number of homeowners in Pennsylvania that would receive a rebate based on the aforementioned income and age categories, (2) the funds necessary to provide the proposed rebate to those groups of Hits: 3
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Non-farm personal income in CY 2021 by county reported by the BEA is the base for county income. That measure is then adjusted to account for several factors as reported by the IRS. The analysis property tax revenues published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE). School district revenues are summed to their respective counties based on how they are reported by PDE. The analysis does not attempt to apportion multi-county school districts across counties Hits: 3
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf an increase in federal income taxes or state sales tax. Because borrowers have unique spending patterns 1 This statistic is based on national data as state-level data are not available. Sources include: “Student Loan Pause Could Cost $275 Billion”, Committee Pause”, Briones et al., University of Virgina, EdPolicyWorks Working Paper Series No. 77 (January 2023). 2 The monthly amount is based on a study by the Federal Reserve Board that estimated a range of $200 to $299 for 2019. The analysis Hits: 3
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdf who migrated but were exempt from filing due to income limits or other factors. Table 1 (next page) ranks states based on the ratio of net domestic migration (inflows into the state less outflows) to state population. The data show that the state population by 1.32% (-261,785). Table 2 displays detail for Pennsylvania only and top and bottom states based on net inflows or outflows. The data show that: ▪ The largest net inflows were from the border states of New Hits: 3
RB_2023_03_Rainy_Day_Fund.pdf The Pew Charitable Trusts recently released a report on Rainy Day and General Fund balances for all 50 states based on enacted fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 budgets. 1 The balances reflect amounts reported for the start of the fiscal 0.0% 50-State Median 12.2% State Rainy Day Fund Balances for FY 2022-23 Enacted Budget Note: Rank based on share of General Fund expenditures enacted with FY 2022-23 budget. Amounts in dollar millions. Source: The Pew Charitable Hits: 3
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf 04 billion. For CY 2021, total wages grew to $1.05 billion (+1.3%), despite a 13.5% workforce contraction. Based on wage data through June 2022 and employment trends through December 2022, total wages for CY 2022 are projected to used to increase compensation for child care workers. However, providers only allocated a portion of ARPA funds to personnel costs. Based on data submitted to DHS, an estimated $607.2 million (74%) was allocated to personnel, while the remainder was designated Hits: 3
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf certain individuals who migrated but were exempt from filing due to income limits or other factors. Table 1 ranks states based on the ratio of net domestic migration (inflows into the state less outflows) to state population. The data show that the state population by 1.23% (-248,305). Table 2 shows detail for Pennsylvania only and top and bottom states based on net inflows or outflows. The data show that: ▪ The largest net inflows were from the border states of New Hits: 3
RB-2015-02-annual_vs_lifetime_ETR.pdf severance taxes imposed on natural gas, the statutory tax rate is applied to one (or both) of the following tax bases:  Value. The rate is expressed as a percentage of the market value of gas extracted.  Volume. The rate of the gas extracted from the well exceeds the drilling cost.  Exemptions. Certain wells may be exempt from tax based on the level of production. The most common type of exemption is for “stripper” wells (production falls below a specified Hits: 3
QRR_2017Q1.pdf the Commonwealth’s revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2016‐17 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. JANUARY TO MARCH 2017 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE was likely influenced by reduced electricity demand and declining prices, as well as continued erosion of the telecom‐ munications tax base. The table below provides General Fund year‐over‐year first‐quarter and fiscal year‐to‐date revenue growth rates. JANUARY Hits: 3
PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf benefit and DC is defined contribution. Sources: Conduent (PSERS’ actuary). Blended rates for Act 5 were computed by the IFO based on data from Conduent. Annual Change in Employer Contributions Act 5 Compared to Prior Law 6/28/2017 4 -60 0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Note: dollar amounts in millions on a cash flow basis for fiscal years ending June 30th. Includes employer contributions for PSERS only. Source: Cost note prepared by Conduent (PSERS’ actuary Hits: 3
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Non-farm personal income in CY 2020 by county reported by the BEA is the base for county income. That measure is then adjusted to account for several factors. The analysis adds capital gains income, IRA property tax revenues published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE). School district revenues are summed to their respective counties based on how they are reported by PDE. The analysis does not attempt to apportion multi-county school districts across counties Hits: 3
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf long term: trends through 2040. Economic Implications o Labor Force, Income and Jobs Composition, Growth. Budget Implications o Persistent tax base erosion due to demographics. 12.June.2014 2 Today’s Presentation 12.June.2014 3 Broad Demographic Trends 2000 2010 o Wage income less important. o Non-taxable income: Social Security, Pensions, IRAs. 12.June.2014 23 Trend: Persistent Tax Base Erosion 12.June.2014 24 Cumulative Growth Rates 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 PIT 67% Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf stress testing is connected to its analysis of pension-related legislation.  No analysis without legislative proposal changing pensions.  Based on the statutory mandate for a “risk transfer analysis.”  Implementation fits within the constraints that often accompany the legislative analysis is influenced by the legislative schedule. 7/29/2018 3 Analysis of Pension Legislation The risk transfer analysis is based on investment risk.  Quantifies risk mitigation from the perspective of the plan funder. Plan members would assume additional investment Hits: 3
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf TCJA of 2017 (temporary) $25 Strong Consumer Confidence (unclear) $73 Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. Sales and Use Tax Base Expansion June 11, 2019 14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Total Sales and 4.4% 17.9% Growth Rate Differential +1.2% +7.2% Underprediction $311 Stronger Profits $150 Income Shifting/NOL changes/Base Expansion $161 Estimated Tax Payments (Annual Growth) March June Sept Dec 2018 9.0% 5.5% 20.0% 25.7% Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf PBB Addendums Updated Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Review Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board September 28, 2021 PBB Addendum Requests Pennsylvania Department of Transportation ▪ Activity 12 – Administration: Human Resources measures related to of direct remediation costs ▪ PA and DE offer job tax credits to increase attractiveness of site ▪ PA only state to base tax credit on job creation only September 28, 2021 3 KSDZ Economic Impact Challenges Program currently has a small number Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf PBB Agency Highlights PA Department of Aging Department of Human Services Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 25, 2022 PA Department of Aging (PDA) January 25, 2022 1 PDA Actual Spend and FTEs (FY less than $1.0 million. DHS Metric Highlights The share of long-term living recipients served in home- and community-based settings has increased from 53% to 67% (FY 16-17 to FY 20-21) ▪ Community HealthChoices (CHC) encourages home- and Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf and Agency Highlights Department of Conservation & Natural Resources (DCNR) Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs (DDAP) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 9, 2023 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 5 Agencies (final cycle year, schedule must be updated) ▪ Dept. of Conservation & Natural Resources (DCNR) ▪ Dept. of Hits: 3
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf PBB Overview and Recommendations DOC/PBPP JCJC PCCD Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 22, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 - PBB Duties IFO shall develop PBB plans for all agencies.  January 22, 2019 3 PBB vs Traditional Line Item Budget An alternative budget that provides more detail.  More disaggregation based on agency activities.  More spending detail: personnel, operating, and other.  Actual spending vs. appropriations.  Actual FTEs vs Hits: 3
PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17120 (717) 787-1349 Phone www.senatorbrowne.com John Guyer, Executive Director Tom Horan, Assistant Executive Director Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am Harrisburg, PA 17120 (717) 787-1349 Phone www.senatorbrowne.com John Guyer, Executive Director Tom Horan, Assistant Executive Director Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Wednesday, January 23, 2019 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am Hits: 3
NGIFE-2015.pdf CY 2015 collections. 1 The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quanti Ðies the implicit tax burden See Table 1.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years since a well became subject to the impact fee (operating year), the type of well Hits: 3
Newsstand_2018_November.pdf data show that per capita student loan debt across all consumers increased by 7.2% on a year-over-year basis. For other types of debt, the growth rates were as follows: auto (1.5%), credit cards (4.0%), primary mortgage S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary state real Gross Domestic Product data for 2018 Q2. On a quarterly annualized basis, the Pennsylvania economy expanded by 3.6%. That rate is con- siderably higher than the prior two quarters: 2017 Q4 Hits: 3
Newsstand_2018_December.pdf Q3. For Pennsylvania, seasonally adjusted data show that third quarter home prices grew by 1.8% on a quarterly annualized basis. Pennsylvania home price growth has slowed significantly since earlier in the year (Q1: 6.1%, Q2: 3.1%). Third quarter growth for the third quarter was 5.1%. - December 2018 - National News U.S. Housing Market in Third Largest Boom Based on data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a December 7 article written by Professor Robert Shiller notes that Hits: 3
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf 5,799 5,943 144 2.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2017 is an estimate by IFO based on preliminary data through August. October 19, 2017 14 Recent PA Growth Rates Growth Rate or Change 2013 2014 2015 one-half wage growth (assumes elasticity of gaming relative to income = 0.5). Table games growth rate uses the tax base to control for a tax rate change. +1.6% +4.7% -1.4% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Hits: 3
MTR-2019-08.pdf Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth rate of advance retail sales based on latest three months of data. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. PA: Annual growth rate of sales Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf entered into recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics that are tracked for this update are as follows: • Change months since the summer travel season ended and the school year started. Most data included in the table below are based on surveys that occurred prior to the start of the school year and could be impacted by unusual seasonal adjustment Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf occurred for an entire year, it implies that average wages would expand by 8.0% on a year-over-year basis. While strong, this implied growth rate is more remarkable because many jobs gained in March and April were likely at detail on the type of workers who lost jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic. The table below displays these data based on age, gender and race of workers. Younger workers, women, and to a lesser extent, non-white workers experienced job Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdf Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All Items Philadelphia CPI-U is published on a bi-monthly basis, but four larger components that comprise half of the total CPI-U are published monthly. The metrics tracked (and CPI- was driven by a collapse in gasoline prices (-27.8%). The rapid All Items inflation deceleration is partly motivated by “base year” effects that will likely fade as energy price comparisons to the prior year show a less dramatic decline. Monthly Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf CPI-U) data for July. For All Items, the index rose by 5.4% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. The All Items Less Shelter category, which excludes housing and more accurately reflects actual consumer purchases during the month, grew comprise 31% of the U.S. CPI-U and are discordant with YOY growth in national home prices (+16.6%) based on the May 2021 Case-Shiller Index. Rental prices are “sticky” because the same renters are not surveyed every month Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf For February 2022, the Federal Reserve balance sheet includes $8.9 trillion in “reserve bank credit” which determines the monetary base. In February 2020, the level was $4.1 trillion. The Fed recently detailed plans to shrink the balance sheet by PA Average Wage avg wage CPI-U COVID adjustment period Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average Wage growth based on withholding data. Monthly Data Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Unemployment Rate 1 5.5% Hits: 3
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf in prior year except Real GDP which is quarterly annualized rate. Wage-Salaries growth for 2023.1 and 2023.2 based on withholding tax revenues. Change Payroll Jobs is annual change for quarter compared to prior year. Labor market data are Change Notes General Fund Revenues $45,292 $582 1.3% Corporate Net Income 5,578 -344 -5.8 rate cut, base expansion Sales - Non-Motor 12,707 48 0.4 loan repayments begin Sales - Motor Vehicle 1,385 32 2.3 Hits: 3
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf in prior year except Real GDP which is quarterly annualized rate. Wage-Salaries growth for 2023.1 and 2023.2 based on withholding tax revenues. Change Payroll Jobs is annual change for quarter compared to prior year. Labor market data are Change Notes General Fund Revenues $45,292 $582 1.3% Corporate Net Income 5,578 -344 -5.8 rate cut, base expansion Sales - Non-Motor 12,707 48 0.4 loan repayments begin Sales - Motor Vehicle 1,385 32 2.3 Hits: 3
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdf the 2021 American Community Survey to display estimates for (1) the number of Pennsylvania homeowners that would receive a rebate based on the specified income groups, (2) the total amount of rebates that would be distributed to those homeowners, (3) the thirds of eligible homeowners claimed rebates under the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) Program, which provides rebates to certain homeowners based on income, age and other homeowner characteristics. The significant increase in the assumed utilization rate is due to the much Hits: 3
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf level would likely reduce collections. The PIT estimates included in the enclosed table are calculated using the current state tax base and assume that the tax would be collected at the state level.  Under current Pennsylvania law, employee contributions to School District Property Tax Elimination Table 2 4.New PIT tax of 1.85% calculated using the existing state PIT base. The Department of Revenue devotes significant resources to ensuring taxpayer compliance, including the matching of state returns with federal tax Hits: 3
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf 1 Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Forecast, IFO (November 2021). All School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Act 1 Base Index is average of SAWW and ECI COVID-19 Act 1 Index Components: Actual and Forecast 11 1.9% 3 Hits: 3
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf expenditures in its latest five-year outlook report (November 2021). That amount is for illustrative purposes only and will change based on current budget negotiations. However, a few points can be noted: • Wage costs (and related taxes) will total roughly $3.0 billion for FY 2022-23 based on existing contracts (4.2% growth for next fiscal year). Negotiated wage contracts expire in June 2023 and non-union Hits: 3
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf economic and revenue trends. I would also like to make some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based budget (PBB) plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY 2018-19 Through January, actual revenues exceed the IFO state unemployment rate will remain low and service industry jobs will comprise the majority of net new jobs created. Performance Based-Budgeting (PBB) and Tax Credit Reviews In January 2019, the IFO submitted five PBB plans and three tax credit reviews Hits: 3
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage October 24, 2022 1 Act 48 Tax Credit Reviews Statute: Did the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent? ▪ Submit reviews to Performance-Based Budget Board ▪ Annual legislative hearing | Administrating agency included ▪ Reports available on the IFO website Key Points ▪ Goals and purposes must Hits: 3
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf 3% 10.6% 4.6% -- Note: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. Wage growth for 2020 Q3 and Q4 based on adjusted withholding. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor Force is change from prior year. Labor market data are not FY 2020-21 and one-time transfers. Revenue Outlook: Weak Growth for FY 2021-22 January 21, 2021 14 Adjusted Base Yr Avg Ann FY 20-21 FY 21-22 Growth FY 25-26 Growth Personal Income $14.47 $15.03 Hits: 3
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf which was issued by the Independent Fiscal Office on November 16, 2017. The employer rates used in that report were based on projections provided by PSERS prior to the release of the most recent actuarial valuation. In addition to providing a share of PSERS’ employer contributions is computed using the employer contribution rate, the appropriation payroll and the average state percentage (based on a statutory formula). The table below provides updated state share projections based only on the updated employer contribution rates Hits: 3
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Non-farm personal income in CY 2019 by county reported by the BEA is the base for county income. That measure is then adjusted to account for several factors. The analysis adds capital gains income, IRA property tax revenues published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE). School district revenues are summed to their respective counties based on how they are reported by PDE. The analysis does not attempt to apportion multi-county school districts across counties Hits: 3
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) dataset to present property tax information based on county, homeowner age and household income level. 1,2 These data show that in 2018, there were 3.48 3.4 percent of total household income. This figure includes all types of property taxes: school district, county and municipal. Based on property tax collection data reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development Hits: 3
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf in prior year except Real GDP which is quarterly annualized rate. Wage-Salaries growth for 2022.3 and 2022.4 based on withholding tax revenues. Change Payroll Jobs is annual change for the quarter compared to prior year. Labor market data 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 +85% growth exclude rate- base changes millions of dollars controls for shifts Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2023-24 January 31, 2023 19 Initial Estimate Dollar Hits: 3
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf level for calendar year. Excludes independent contractors and self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figures for 2019 based on preliminary data through December. Other PA Economic Indicators January 28, 2020 5 Year-Over-Year Growth July Aug Sept Natural gas royalties down due to prices January 28, 2020 9 PIT Payments Growth January 28, 2020 10 Tax Year Basis 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Quarterlies 16.1% -3.2% 11.5% -5.6% 10.9% Annuals -7.5% Hits: 3
WC-2019-UFCW.pdf of high-wage senior workers with less experienced lower wage workers (2.69 percent multiplied by the prior year wage base). These savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. Source: Office of Administration. 2/ Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied to Hits: 2
WC-2019-SEIU.pdf of high-wage senior workers with less experienced lower wage workers (2.20 percent multiplied by the prior year wage base). These savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. Source: Office of Administration. 2/ Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied to Hits: 2
WC-2019-AFSCME.pdf of high-wage senior workers with less experienced lower wage workers (1.75 percent multiplied by the prior year wage base). These savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. Source: Office of Administration. 2/ Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied to Hits: 2
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf this analysis have been subtracted to avoid double counting. Note: dollar amounts in thousands. Reporting for special fund spending differs based on the year being reported. Special fund disbursements for actual years are reported on a cash basis, while the estimate for the current fiscal year (listed as the "available" year in the financial statement) includes a budgeted Hits: 2
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf 9% 4.4% 3.1% 2.4% Notes: Change Payroll Jobs for 2023 assumes a -40k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Blue shading is an estimate (some data available) or projection (no GDP (quarterly annualized) and Unemployment Rate (average rate for quarter). Change Payroll Jobs assumes a -40k revision to preliminary data based on research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. All Jobs include self-employed. Annual Growth Philly CPI-U Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf Highlights of the FY16-17 forecast include: Corporate Net Income Tax – Revenues are projected to increase by 2.8 percent based on moderate growth rates for domestic, non- financial corporate profits in 2016 and 2017. Personal Income Tax – Withholding revenues are projected to grow by 2.9 percent, based on restrained wage growth and a technical factor that results in one fewer withholding due date compared to the prior Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf projection includes $106 million for the impact of recent statutory changes to the Liquor Code. Excluding those statutory changes, the base projection is $31 million lower than the one issued by the IFO in May. “The downward adjustment in the base estimate reflects the recent underperformance of wage and salary withholding payments,” Knittel noted. “Wages are the largest component of the Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is based on collections through May and the IFO’s expectations for June revenues. FY 2015-16 unrestricted General Fund revenues are 722 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent over the prior year. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. Relative to the revenue estimates contained in the Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is based on collections through May and the IFO’s expectations for June revenues. FY 2014-15 unrestricted General Fund revenues are 445 billion, an increase of 3.2 percent over the prior year. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. Relative to the revenue estimates contained in February Hits: 2
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf The amount deposited into ERCA and transferred to the General Fund in June is growing each fiscal year. * IFO projection based on ERCA deposits through January. FY 2012‐13 Overview 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 22 Source of the Change gains $20 million Net adjustment for other technical and economic factors (Corporate taxes offset SUT and other shortfalls) $10 million Based on our current analysis, General Fund revenues may exceed our estimate by approximately $75 million. FY 2012‐13 Forecast Risks Hits: 2
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdf data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). These state-level data are based on a comprehensive survey of firms and provide hourly wage distributions (10 th , 25 th , 50 th , 75 th and 2024, and the third bank is the differential between the two snapshots. Estimates for employment and hourly wages paid are based on data through December 2023 from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics database. The estimates assume Hits: 2
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdf The final two columns list the ratio of net domestic migration to state residents (April 2020) and the state rank based on that ratio. For Pennsylvania, the share is -0.1% (-16 / 13,003), which ranks 29 th across all states Most regional states recorded higher levels of net domestic outmigration. The table also displays the top and bottom five states based on the net domestic migration relative to state population. Southern and most western states generally recorded large, positive net domestic Hits: 2
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdf June 2023 relative to June 2019 (pre-COVID) and the three subsequent Junes. The comparison illustrates the importance of the base year used for the computation. Notable results include: ▪ Relative to June 2019, all private workers recorded modest real average hourly run annual rate of 2.0%. For that scenario, the rates for 2021 and 2022 are the actual annual rates based on the Philadelphia CPI-U, while the rate for 2023 uses actual data through June 2023 and assumes 3.0% Hits: 2
RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf 2.49 $3.94 $7.02 $6.00 $4.46 Note: Calendar years. CY 2022 is an estimate by IFO based on data through October. CY 2023 is a projection and includes two months of emergency allotments. Assumes summer benefit paid in CY 2023. Number receiving summer benefits includes school-age and childcare age children and is an estimate based on published data. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief Hits: 2
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf household). Table 3 displays total balances, number of borrowers and average loan balance by state. 6 The states are ranked based on average federal loan balance (excludes private lenders). Pennsylvania ranks 6 th in total balance ($69.2 billion) and 21 Borrowers in FFY 2022 Note: Income percentile pertains to households. Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates pro-rated to PA based on data from U.S. Department of Education. Dollar Amounts (millions) Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 State Balance Rank Borrowers Hits: 2
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf quarter (6.0% annualized). The total wages data show that wages paid in September grew 9.3% on a YOY basis (annualized), the highest pre-pandemic rate since December 1984. The total wages metric displays stronger growth because it is a for Pennsylvania, the graph below uses total wage data through 2021 Q2 published by the BEA. Those data are extended based on the YOY growth of withholding tax revenues, which are typically an accurate predictor of wage growth. Withholding data for Hits: 2
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf 825 million prepayment in unfunded liability from the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education. 1 SERS reported on calendar year basis except for Employer Contribution Rate. Includes all funds. 2 Includes $1.1 billion prepayment in unfunded liability from The Pennsylvania in revenue deposits from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARP). However, they are not included in the General Fund revenue base for that fiscal year in Table 2. The IFO will update these projections as part of its Five-Year Economic Hits: 2
QRR_2017Q3.pdf s revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2017-18 Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. 4 Includes the Capital Stock and Franchise The Commonwealth’s revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2017-18 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. 4 Includes residual collections of liquid fuels Hits: 2
QRR_2017Q2.pdf the Commonwealth’s revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2016-17 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. 4 Includes the Capital Stock and Franchise The Commonwealth’s revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2016-17 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. 4 Includes residual collections of liquid fuels Hits: 2
QRR_2016Q4.pdf the Commonwealth’s revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2016-17 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2016 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE The Commonwealth’s revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2016-17 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. 4 Includes residual collections of liquid fuels Hits: 2
QRR_2016Q3.pdf the Commonwealth’s revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2016-17 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. JULY TO SEPTEMBER INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page The Commonwealth’s revenue accounting system. 2 Fiscal Year 2016-17 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. 4 Includes residual collections of liquid fuels Hits: 2
QRR_2015Q2.pdf revenue accounting system. b Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, August 14, 2014. c Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to the total due to rounding. ________________________________________ 1 For consistency, references to quarters in this report are based on the calendar quarter. The second quarter of calendar year 2015 is the fourth quarter of FY 2014-15. ________________________________________ 2 See Hits: 2
QRR_2015Q1.pdf revenue accounting system. b Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, August 14, 2014. c Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to the total due to rounding. ________________________________________ 1 For consistency, references to quarters in this report are based on the calendar quarter. The first quarter of calendar year 2015 is the third quarter of FY 2014-15. ________________________________________ 2 See Hits: 2
QRR_2014Q4.pdf revenue accounting system. b Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, August 14, 2014. c Computations are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to the total due to rounding. ________________________________________ 1 For consistency, references to quarters in this report are based on the calendar quarter. The fourth quarter of calendar year 2014 is the second quarter of FY 2014-15. ________________________________________ 2 See Hits: 2
QRR_2014Q2.pdf revenue accounting system. b Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, August 12, 2013. c Differences are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to the total due to rounding. ________________________________________ 1 For consistency, references to quarters in this report are based on the calendar quarter. The second quarter of calendar year 2014 is the last quarter of FY 2013-14. ________________________________________ 2 See Hits: 2
QRR_2013Q4.pdf revenue accounting system. b Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, August 12, 2013. c Differences are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to the total due to rounding. ________________________________________ 1 For consistency, references to quarters in this report are based on the calendar quarter. The fourth quarter of calendar year 2013 is the second quarter of FY 2013-14. ________________________________________ 2 See Hits: 2
QRR_2013Q3.pdf revenue accounting system. b Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, August 12, 2013. c Differences are based on the unrounded values. Detail may not sum to the total due to rounding. ________________________________________ 1 For consistency, references to quarters in this report are based on the calendar quarter. The third quarter of calendar year 2013 is the first quarter of FY 2013-14. ________________________________________ 2 See Hits: 2
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf determine if actuarial note required prior to further consideration ▪ Property tax: forecasts and analysis depending on requests/data available ▪ Performance Based Budgets (PBB) and Tax Credit reviews ▪ Natural Gas: quarterly production reports, annual impact fee collections January 19, 2022 1 Latest 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 Base Index SAWW ECI Average 16-17 to 21-22 SAWW: 2.5% ECI: 2.6% COVID job losses Sources: Index Hits: 2
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf 1.71 billion in the upcoming fiscal year. The potential imbalance falls to $1.58 billion in FY 2023-24 based on current policies. A new sales and use tax transfer to the Public Transportation Trust Fund beginning in FY 2022- forecast. The imbalance is described as “potential” because policymakers have various tools to control expenditures on a temporary or permanent basis. “Expenditures are expected to increase by $2.70 billion in FY 2019-20, which is roughly $1.70 billion more Hits: 2
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. On a current-policy basis, the analysis finds that expenditure growth has the potential to significantly exceed revenue growth over this period. Other major findings include:  The Pennsylvania economy will continue to expand, but at a lackluster pace. Demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth. There are important downside risks associated with global economic weakness and the uncertainties of federal Hits: 2
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx 188 725 718 643 727 613 691 571 450 558 88 914 923 *For 2000 and 2010, population estimates are based on data from April to July. For all other years, population estimates are based on data from July to July. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, (http://www.census.gov/popest/data/historical Hits: 2
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf are in millions. One-time revenues ~+$630m 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Sales and Use – Base 1 $1,172 $2,979 $3,207 $3,423 $3,599 Sales and Use – Rate 1 399 991 1,024 Total Revenues 4,908 7,974 8,476 9,179 9,783 Dollar amounts are in millions. 1 Expands tax base to many services and products. Increases rate from 6.0% to 6.6%. 2 Increases rate from 3.07% to Hits: 2
Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf Fund Tax Revenues 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Non-Motor Sales (base, see note) 3.4% 4.1% 3.0% 5.1% 5.4% 4.7% 2.9% Non-Motor Sales (as All growth rates are year-over-year, except Real GDP which is a quarterly annualized growth rate. Non-Motor Sales (base) excludes internet sales: (1) ecommerce/nexus, (2) digital downloads and (3) marketplace sales. For FY 2018-19, the IFO estimates Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 -$168.5 Corporate – rate and tax base -133.8 -129.2 Corporate - tax on foreign profits 42.6 40.5 Total Tax Cut -280.0 -257.2 Look to tax revenues.  Final personal income tax payments up +13.0%. Spending - non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. June.04.2018 7 Hits: 2
PBB_TaxCredits_Schedule_2022_Update.pdf Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule Year Performance-Based Budgets 1 Corrections Board of Probation and Parole PA Commission on Crime & Delinquency Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission Banking and Securities Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Request_May_4_2021.pdf The Honorable Jen Swails Secretary of the Budget 238 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board: Enclosed please find a regional breakdown of the Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) and a county breakdown of the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credits as requested as follow-up during the Performance-Based Budget Board hearing on April 26, 2021. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me. Sincerely, Matthew Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf PBB Overview and Agency Highlights Department of Labor & Industry PA Historical and Museum Commission Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2022 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 4 Agencies ▪ Dept. of Labor & Industry (DLI) | PA Historical & Museum Commission (PHMC) ▪ PA Dept. of Aging (PDA Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf Tax Credit Reviews Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 26, 2021 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 3 Theme: improving the lives of PA residents ▪ NAP – incentivizes and Protection Program (REAP) Collaborate with DEP on environmental modeling ▪ Evaluate impact of BMPs at the program level ▪ Award credits based on objective data for maximum impact ▪ Identify most cost-effective BMP for farming operation/location ▪ IFO identified the EPA-funded Hits: 2
PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17120 (717) 787-1349 Phone www.senatorbrowne.com John Guyer, Executive Director Tom Horan, Assistant Executive Director Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am Harrisburg, PA 17120 (717) 787-1349 Phone www.senatorbrowne.com John Guyer, Executive Director Tom Horan, Assistant Executive Director Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Thursday, January 24, 2019 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am Hits: 2
NGQU_2023_Q1.pdf year (YOY) growth in quarterly production volume in Pennsylvania to seven other states. The states are listed in descending order based on total production volume in 2023 Q1. The eight states shown account for 86% of nationwide natural gas production. For demand for heating and increased natural gas inventory throughout the country. The price shown for 2023 Q2 is a projection based on April and May data. This price, $1.59 for the Pennsylvania average, represents a further decline and the lowest Hits: 2
NFIB_Presentation.pdf General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining agreements. ◦ Special studies at request of General Assembly. Dec.13 100 million) and a transfer from a delinquent holding account ($27 million) received in November 2017. Concern: Long-Term Tax Base Erosion 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2005-06 2009-10 2013-14 2017- Hits: 2
NFIB_Feb_2024.pdf growth rates or change are year-over-year. Change Payroll Jobs for 2023 assumes a -30k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Payroll Jobs excludes self-employed. PA Labor Market: Pre vs Post- 7.4% Note: Employment data not seasonally adjusted, except Unemployment Rate. Payroll Jobs assumes a -30k revision to preliminary data based on research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. All Jobs includes self-employed. Payroll Jobs Revert to Pre- Hits: 2
Newsstand_January_2020.pdf with targeted incentives are warranted because the benefits are difficult to track due to the lack of high quality data. Based on data available, the study found that narrow, firm-specific incentives appear to generate job growth within that targeted industry Negative Net Domestic Migration from 2017 to 2018 The IRS also recently released state migration data for 2017 to 2018 based on tax returns. Pennsylvania record- ed a negative net domestic migration of -10,973. Domestic migration into Pennsylvania totaled 193 Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_June.pdf For Pennsylvania, the first quarter non-seasonally adjusted purchase-only index increased by 5.0% on a year-over- year basis. Nearly all states bordering Pennsylvania saw smaller increases in existing home prices: New York (4.7%), New Jersey (3.1% privately owned racetracks (85), followed by Florida (60) and Illinois (41). Pennsylvania ranked seventh with a total of 29 establishments. Based on 2018 annual averages, a total of 30,000 people were employed in the private racetrack industry in the United Hits: 2
Newsstand_2019_April.pdf 9% from the prior year. - April 2019- National News Federal Income Tax Refunds Remain Below Prior Year On a weekly basis, the IRS releases the latest data regarding federal income tax refunds processed and paid. Through April 12, total IRS refunds Q4. For cal- endar year 2018, domestic profits of non-financial corporations increased by 10.7% on a pre-tax basis. (See Table 6.16d in the link.) For the four quarters, profit growth relative to the prior year was as Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_October.pdf Q3 Four real-time data sources suggest that the Pennsylvania economy recorded robust growth for the third quarter of 2018. Based on non-motor sales tax collections, taxable consumer and business spending increased 8.3% compared to the prior year. The the quarter was 68,000, compared to 62,900 in 2017 and 50,000 for 2016. Finally, tax remit- tances based on the taxable income of pass-through businesses (i.e., S corporations, partnerships and sole proprie- tors) increased by 14 Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf 2.0%. New Tariffs Have Disparate Impacts on PA Counties On July 6, the Wall Street Journal published an analysis based on a report from Moody’s that computes the impact of new U.S. and Chinese tariffs. The analysis shows its final forecast of GDPNow for 2018 Q2. The forecast projects the real growth rate of the U.S. economy based on various government data releases during the past three months. A preliminary growth rate will be released by the U Hits: 2
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf District of Columbia: o $25.5 billion to each state, minimum of $500 million. o $169 billion would be allocated based on the states’ share of unemployed workers over a three-month period, from October-December 2020. Provides $130.2 billion Finance Council authorizes funds. UT VT GA • Established a set of criteria for how to spend the funds. • Scored proposals based on criteria • Divided funds into buckets • 3 phase recovery plan. • Phase I –Urgent Needs (now-Jan ‘22) • Phase II – Additional Hits: 2
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. The monthly and quarterly estimates are based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (IFO gross income and ranges from 20% to 35%. The credit is effective for tax years beginning after December 31, 2021. Based on 2019 data published by the Internal Revenue Service for the state of Pennsylvania, this provision is projected to reduce Hits: 2
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. The monthly and quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June Program to $8 million annually and (2) increasing the individual limitations per tour by creating a tiered system based on the purchase or rental of concert tour equipment from Penn- sylvania companies. These changes are effective July 1, 2019. Prior Law Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf released rent estimates for August 2021 that show rents in Philadelphia increased 10.2% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, while rents in Pittsburgh increased 7.5%. These rates easily surpass the average 2% to 3% per annum rent growth Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. CreationDate: 2021-09-16 19:02:27 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher for Microsoft 365 ModDate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows:  Change in Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf for 2023 Q3. The report includes per capita debt balances for the population of residents who have a credit report. Based on data for the third quarter, total Pennsylvania debt balances increased 3.0% from the prior year, somewhat slower than 500 closing price for last trading day of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 15. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 16. The LEI base year is 2016 (100) and lower values suggest a higher likelihood of slower economic growth. Source: The Conference Board. 5 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. CreationDate: 2022-11-21 16:15:33 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher for Microsoft 365 ModDate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf of Labor Statistics (BLS) released October data for the Producer Price Index (PPI, final demand) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Based on the BLS description, the PPI is an index that measures the change in selling prices received by domestic producers Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf may provide the best measure of inflation for goods and services that consumers actually purchase. PA Total Wage Growth Accelerates Based on the latest four months of data, growth of wages paid to Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf g., medical care, services and clothing, 31.8%) components. The February data also show that inflation is becoming more broad-based. For example, in June 2021, the transportation component contributed 2.8 percentage points of the total 4.9% YOY growth Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdf 500 closing price for last trading day of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 15. The LEI base year is 2016 (100) and lower values suggest a higher likelihood of slower economic growth. Source: The Conference Board. 5 Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 12. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of the Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf heading towards recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The specific data that will be tracked and recent trends are as follows:  Change Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf due to the way data are collected and the fact that rental agreements are generally renewed only on an annual basis. This lag and the relative size of the Shelter component suggests that inflation will remain elevated in the near term Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdf entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdf Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All Items Philadelphia CPI-U is published on a bi-monthly basis, but four larger components that comprise half of the total CPI-U are published monthly. The metrics tracked (and CPI- 500 closing price for last trading day of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 15. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 16. The LEI base year is 2016 (100) and lower values suggest a higher likelihood of slower economic growth. Source: The Conference Board. 5 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf enter into recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics that are tracked for this update are as follows: • Change Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 2
Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf 39 2 37 7 4 4 4 Source: State Business Tax Climate Index, Tax Foundation, 2019. Table 4 Sales Tax Base Medical Landscape Repair Real Estate Parking Dry Clean Fitness Barber Veterinary State Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Exempt Taxable Exempt Exempt Exempt Total Taxable 3 20 24 1 17 24 22 5 6 Table 4 Sales Tax Base Source: State Business Tax Climate Index, Tax Foundation, 2019. Income Other All Tax Federal Net Return State Rank Tax Taxes Hits: 2
Letter_to_JSGC.pdf to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. Based on discussions with your office, the IFO agreed to provide technical analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement appear to be part of the IFO submission. Both sets of alterations are described in the enclosure to this letter. Based on these unauthorized alterations, the IFO has reservations regarding the provision of future technical assistance or economic analysis. The IFO Hits: 2
Labor_Market_Update_October_2021.pdf Jobs Shortfall Expands in September due to Weak Seasonal Hiring Based on the latest data for September 2021, Pennsylvania payroll jobs contracted relative to a no-pandemic scenario, as the computed three years prior to COVID, roughly 60,000 net payroll jobs were added in September on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. For September 2021, the preliminary data show that 40,000 net jobs were added. That outcome was motivated by weaker- Hits: 2
Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.8 billion has been received. Based on the latest data for May 2021, Pennsylvania payroll job creation continues to stagnate, despite the transfer of federal funds in certain sectors such as construction and leisure-hospitality, so that minimal improvement is realized on a year -over-year basis. National data show job openings at an all-time high and quit rates at the highest level since 2000. Both Hits: 2
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf investments. This outcome is important because the U.S. Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the corporate rate cut and base changes are a $134 billion tax cut in the first full fiscal year they are effective. In addition to the rate cut, the TCJA broadens the corporate income tax base, and the IFO has included that impact in the revenue forecast. The office also assumes that some pass through businesses Hits: 2
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf revenue would be collected in FY 2022-23. The same percentage can be applied to other full-year SUT estimates based on the anticipated year of implementation. For personal income tax (PIT), the IFO assumes an effective date of January 1 40%) would be received in FY 2022-23. Again, this same percentage can be applied to other fiscal year estimates based on the anticipated date of implementation. These estimates should be viewed as approximations and include the impact of changes in Hits: 2
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf 1960 PN 2247 (raise the net operating loss (NOL) deduction threshold). You request that the estimates “be prepared on the basis of assumptions that consider the probable behavioral responses of taxpayers, businesses and other persons and any potential dynamic or macroeconomic peak at $250 million after two to three years, and then decline to $200 million. March 7, 2022 Page 2 Based on these estimates, only HB 1960 exceeds the $50 million static threshold for a potential dynamic score once temporary timing Hits: 2
IFO_Presentation_HB1379_Sept_2023.pdf No “double dipping” from multiple systems. September 7, 2023 3 For Municipalities ▪ Reimburse municipalities for a portion of additional expenses. • Based on local share of total municipal pension contributions. ▪ Funding for reimbursement comes from general municipal pension aid, which will reduce Capita $11,900 $17,200 $13,050 September 7, 2023 4 Notes ▪ Annuitant data from the Auditor General ▪ Actuarial assumptions based on Pittsburgh City ▪ Adjustments made for 2002 COLAs (state) Findings ▪ Individuals get $1,600 increase • Police: +$1,475 (+4.6% Hits: 2
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Revenue_Analyst.pdf recommendations, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Position Summary A Revenue Analyst I is responsible for the analysis Market Street, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Work Hours: Full-time salaried, Monday through Friday, two/three days remote Salary Range: $55K-$65K based on the candidate’s qualifications, experience, skills and education as related to position requirements Benefits: • Comprehensive benefits package includes health Hits: 2
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Deputy_Director.pdf recommendations, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Position Summary The deputy director is a senior manager that assists Market Street, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Work Hours: Full-time salaried, Monday through Friday, two/three days remote Salary Range: $130K-$155K based on the candidate’s qualifications, experience, skills and education as related to position requirements Benefits: • Comprehensive benefits package includes health Hits: 2
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf Currently, there are several bills that would further expand the duties of the office to include: the publication of performance-based budget reports, analysis of proposed regulations that are “economically significant,” and cost-benefit analyses using the Results First model maintained the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report. Provides unconventional production volumes and well counts on a quarterly basis. Top producing counties also listed. • Quarterly Revenue Review. Published after each quarter to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to Hits: 2
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf revenues; and 4) drafts text and prepares data tables and graphs for presentations and published analyses. Applicants will be assessed based on the following skills or characteristics: • Possession of a bachelor’s degree or higher with a course of study in g., SAS) is a plus. The IFO is located in Harrisburg, approximately one block from the Capitol Complex. Compensation is based on education, skills and experience. A comprehensive benefits package is included. Interested applicants should submit a brief cover letter and Hits: 2
House Budget Hearing Request.pdf and over 1,604,654 17,155 13,627 1,618,281 -3,528 -0.2% Notes: Age groups are based on the primary filers’ age. Net Migration is inflow minus outflow to Pennsylvania. Number of exemptions is the total number and over 1,652,327 12,616 9,293 1,661,620 -3,323 -0.2% Notes: Age groups are based on the primary filers’ age. Net Migration is inflow minus outflow to Pennsylvania. Number of exemptions is the total number Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf is average annual growth rate. Growth rates are year-over-year. All data are on a calendar or tax year basis. S&P 500 for 2021 through October. Historical sales tax growth rate excludes revenue gains from extra internet sales taxes. Home values based on Q2. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, IFO. Annual Change in Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through FY 2019-20. Based on assumptions used in the report, the evaluation finds that various factors will combine to generate a long-term fiscal the expenditure growth in the near term. However, the annual growth begins to moderate after FY 2016-17. • Slow tax base erosion and “normal” expenditure growth become the primary drivers of the structural imbalance. Net revenues are projected to increase at Hits: 2
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. Projections are made on a current-law and current-services basis. Major findings include:  Recent budgets have been balanced by surplus funds carried over from FY 2010-11. Current- year year projections.  The Pennsylvania economy will expand, but at a moderate pace. Long-term demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth.  The number of working-aged residents between ages 20 and 64 will remain flat Hits: 2
Electricity_Update_2024.pdf megawatt hours. Emissions in million metric tons. Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2023 emissions are estimated by the IFO based on 2023 generation. Generation Emissions Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 A factor that likely impacts that outcome is the Commonwealth average residential price for electricity for Pennsylvania, regional states and the U.S. The states are listed in descending order based on the percent change in average price from 2018 to 2023. The Pennsylvania residential price increased by 30.3% during Hits: 2
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf must have worked in prior quarter) Note: Both Earnings measures are converted to real amounts using the Philadelphia CPI-U based on the methodology used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data Source 1 is U.S. Bureau of be harder? • Durable Goods + Energy were main drivers • Recent disinflation in both largely played out • Shelter (38% of total) lags, based on rent prices • Medical Care to increase, has been subdued Slide 13 Feb 2024 Economic Summit -2.0% 0.0% Hits: 2
DOC_Performance_Measures_Final.pdf the State Budget.” In that report, the office described the systems and processes that certain states use to implement performance-based budgeting. The report also included a basic “prototype report” that compiled data from the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections (DOC) and Saylor requested that the IFO submit a completed version of the report for the purpose of the DOC budget hearings. Based on that request, the office submits the attached report. The department has reviewed the data contained in the report and Hits: 2
Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdf S. borrowers that entered into serious delinquency across all debt sources for the fourth quarter of the last five years. Based on available data, it is not possible to link borrowers who are taking on new debt with those that paid of estimates from April 1, 2020 to July 1 of the current year. Because the 2020 Census provides a new base of data with some methodological differences, the 2010 and 2020 Decennial Census estimates may not be entirely comparable. The net Hits: 2
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf govts should evaluate risk carefully, with an eye toward reducing risk. 2 Liabilities and normal costs in this presentation are based on BEA/FRB estimates, not actuaries’ estimates. Recent years are discounted at 5%. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 cfm?abstract_id=2070054. Institutions and incentives encourage risk taking •U.S. public plans calculate liabilities and contributions using earnings assumption based on plan portfolio rather than market rates (unlike U.S. private plans, generally unlike other countries). Higher earnings assumption: •Keeps Hits: 2
April_1_Revenue_Update.pdf Chairs Martin, Hughes, Harris and Grove: This letter provides a brief update to the IFO’s General Fund revenue forecast based on year-to-date revenues. Through March, revenues are running $284 million (0.9%) above the IFO’s FY 2023- General Fund balances and interest rates. Most analysts do not expect a rate cut by the Federal Reserve until June. Based on fiscal year-to-date revenues through March, the IFO would increase its official revenue estimate by roughly $100 million Hits: 2
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf show no obvious trend in approved exceptions prior to Act 25, so that general macroeconomic indicator was used to grow base year exception amounts. Finally, the historical 35% usage rate was applied to the assumed approved amount each year. Based on this methodology, utilized exceptions eliminated by Act 25 increase from $22 million for FY 2012-13 to $28 million Hits: 2
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf 9% 4.4% 3.1% 2.4% Notes: Change Payroll Jobs for 2023 assumes a -40k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Blue shading is an estimate (some data available) or projection (no GDP (quarterly annualized) and Unemployment Rate (average rate for quarter). Change Payroll Jobs assumes a -40k revision to preliminary data based on research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. All Jobs include self-employed. Annual Growth Philly CPI-U Hits: 2
2020 PBB Agenda.pdf Performance‐Based Budget Board Hearings Wednesday, January 22, 2020 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 9:30 of Environmental Protection Ramez Ziadeh, Executive Deputy Secretary, DEP Darrin Bodner, Executive Deputy Secretary, DEP 12:00 pm Adjournment Performance‐Based Budget Board Hearings Thursday, January 23, 2020 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 9:30 Hits: 2
2001_hr266.pdf Both systems are financed through employer and 13 employee contributions and investment earnings, with the 14 employer rate being variable based upon actuarial experience and 15 investment returns; and 16 WHEREAS, The PSERS employer rate has decreased from 20.04% of full-time and part-time public school and 4 State employees have the option to participate on a voluntary 5 basis in either an IRS 457 or 403(b) defined contribution plan; 6 and 7 WHEREAS, Defined benefit (DB) plans have Hits: 2
Pensions receiving a retirement benefit before January 1, 1996, with the reimbursement amount payable by the Commonwealth to municipal pension systems based on the amortization contribution requirement attributable to the postretirement adjustment. Act 2002 - 65 (House Bill Number 1363, Printer's Number Number 2598). Signed into law on October 30, 2001, Act 80 amended the Second Class County Code by mandating formula-based retirement allowance increases for retired members; providing for the housing of juvenile offenders, and miscellaneous other non-pension provisions. IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Apr 10) Healthcare, government and food service jobs drive 2024 PA job gains. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.twitter.com/iIP86Qgakd • (Apr 05) The IFO presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. See: ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?f… pic.twitter.com/ZfvyAsqjEk • (Apr 04) A new IFO analysis finds the Ironman 70.3 Pennsylvania Happy Valley Triathlon (July 2023), attracted over 2,400 athletes, generated $4.7 million in spending and supported 30 full-time equivalent jobs. Report: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.twitter.com/5AmHCzl2ys Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport Hits: 2
WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf price at major PA hubs. NYMEX price is from the Wall Street Journal. 2020 data are projected by the IFO based on year-to-date actuals. Current Situation July 14, 2020 9 National price at lowest level in decades  NYMEX Hits: 1
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf supplemented? • Cost vs comprehensiveness • How will the market respond? EHB EHB EHB More ACA implementation coming… • Delivery system reforms – Value based purchasing demonstrations – Medical homes – Health homes – ACOs – Team care – Quality reporting 18 State Implementation Priorities 1. Be strategic with the Hits: 1
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf any policy discussed on its website. Rather, analysis posted on this website is intended to inform readers of potential outcomes based on available data and research. The IFO welcomes any comments or suggestions. Comments and suggestions can be submitted on the Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf for both men and women would be roughly 9.0%. April 6, 2021 Page 2 Single month state-level data based on gender are not published by BLS, but the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry recently released a brief (January Hits: 1
RTR-2014-12.pdf December, which are largely comprised of the last quarterly payment from corporations that file their taxes on a calendar year basis, increased by $37 million (9.6%). For the fiscal year, estimated payments increased by $102 million (12.2%).  Personal Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf example, the mid-year update for FY 2016-17 was released on January 25, 2017. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year. • May Update This revenue estimate occurs Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf million. Highlights of the FY15-16 forecast include: Corporate Net Income Tax – Revenues are projected to register a small decline based on weakness in estimated payments for March and June, the first two quarterly payments for calendar year 2015 filers. Sales Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf increase of only $170 million (0.6 percent) over the prior year. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to continue expanding Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf example, the mid-year update for FY 2017-18 was released on January 29, 2018. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year. • May Update This revenue estimate occurs Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf Sports 14 20 -10 -38 -26 Total 0 5 -17 -15 14 Note: Growth rates for April and May are based on weekly Lottery sales reports. Lottery Sales and Revenues May 26, 2020 19 Amounts Growth Rate 18-19 19-20 Hits: 1
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf number of homestead property owners who would have their school district property taxes eliminated under each of the aforementioned proposals. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) and previous research by the IFO on Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf The estimates apply to senior homeowners only, and exclude any property tax that may be effectively remitted by senior renters. Based on these data for 2017, the results are as follows:  525,000 senior homeowners would be affected by the Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf Property Tax Rent Rebate Program could be deducted from that gross amount to derive a net cost (roughly $970 million). Based on the latest IFO projections, an increase in the sales and use tax rate of slightly more than 0.5 Hits: 1
RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdf food service and government sectors generated all year- over-year Pennsylvania payroll job gains for 2024. (The preliminary data are based on a monthly survey of establishments and exclude the self-employed. If an individual holds two jobs, they are counted Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Jobs_Revised.pdf benchmark” more timely jobs data published monthly by the BLS in their Current Employment Survey (CES) data series, which are based on surveys and imputed jobs created by new firms. (Note: Both series exclude self-employed.) On March 11, the BLS Hits: 1
RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdf to impose such a restriction. The Princeton University Eviction Lab project compiles state renter eviction filing data on a monthly basis. 1 In the figure below, the black line displays Pennsylvania pre-COVID “baseline” eviction filings for each month, using data Hits: 1
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf 56 60 49 0.90 0.87 Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2022 emissions are estimated by the IFO based on 2022 generation. Carbon Emissions from Electricity Generation Notes: Generation in million megawatt hours. Emissions in million metric tons. Generation Hits: 1
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdf by the U.S. Census Bureau, which includes state employment data by age group. The QWI is a longitudinal dataset based on administrative records such as tax returns and quarterly filings by firms in the Unemployment Insurance system. The database includes Hits: 1
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf Relief Income Per Capita Figure 3 displays the estimated 2020 COVID-19 pandemic relief income on a county per capita basis. The amounts ranged from $6,500 (Elk County) to $2,300 (Forest County). Counties at the higher end of the Hits: 1
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf and is an alternative measure to the labor force participation rate. Some analysts prefer that metric because it can be based on actual employment data as opposed to surveys used to generate labor force participation rates. However, the labor force participation Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf Credits are omitted from this table. The Strategic Development Areas, Keystone Special Development Zone, Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Community-Based Services, Qualified Manufacturing Innovation & Reinvestment Deduction and Beginning Farmers' tax credits are not included due to a small number of Hits: 1
RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdf projected). The combination of high balances and interest rates should continue this fiscal year, but not over the longer term. Based on the latest published General Fund balance sheet for FY 2023-24, the ending balance is expected to decline $1 Hits: 1
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf 3 Pandemic Relief Income Per Capita Figure 3 displays the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic relief income on a per capita basis. The amounts ranged from $4,900 (Philadelphia County) to $2,900 (Centre County). Counties at the high end of the Hits: 1
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf fields by Pennsylvania residents on the federal income tax return for tax years 2017 and 2018 for three income groups based on Adjusted Gross Income (equal to Total Income less minor statutory deductions): $0 to $75,000, $75,000 to $200 Hits: 1
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf 5 588.7 The Strategic Development Areas, Keystone Special Development Zone, Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing, Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Community-Based Services, Qualified Manufacturing Innovation & Reinvestment Deduction and Beginning Farmers' tax credits are not included due to a small number of Hits: 1
QRE_FY15-16.pdf This document provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on the FY 2015-16 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June Hits: 1
QRE_FY14-15.pdf provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: 1) the FY 2014-15 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 16 Hits: 1
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf 8 Total ‐150 Note: dollar amounts are in millions. Compared to estimates in the January 2016 IFO report, which was based primarily on Act 10A of 2015. 8.Jun.2016 8  FY 2016‐17 revenue estimate increased by $61 million Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf Growth Rate or Change General Fund Tax Revenues (YOY) 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Non-Motor SUT (base)1.8% 2.4% 2.9% 3.9% 3.0% 5.3% 8.3% Motor Vehicle SUT 9.7% 0 Hits: 1
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf taxes, special taxes, and inspection fees), exclusive of county and local taxes. Rates are also exclusive of any state taxes based on gross or net receipts. State rates in effect as of January 1, 2023. Alaska, Hawaii and other territories are Hits: 1
PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf noted in system CAFR. Unfunded Liability is final year UAL. Calculations by the IFO. 1 SERS reported on calendar year basis except for Employer Contribution Rate. Includes all funds. 2 SERS 2020 employer contributions include $1.1 billion prepayment in unfunded Hits: 1
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf Unemployment Assistance. PPP is Paycheck Protection Program. LWA is Lost Wage Assistance. Growth rates control for revenue shifts. Collections partially based on sales from prior month. Philadelphia values for Jan and Feb represent three-month average growth Dec to Feb. LWA Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf PBB Agency Highlights Pennsylvania Department of Education Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board March 9, 2022 Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) March 9, 2022 1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf PBB Agency Highlights Pennsylvania Department of Education Department of Agriculture Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 26, 2022 Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) January 26, 2022 1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_11_2023.pdf PBB Agency Highlights Pennsylvania Insurance Department (PID) Executive Offices (EO) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 11, 2023 Pennsylvania Insurance Department (PID) January 11, 2023 1 PID Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 21- Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf PBB Agency Highlights Department of Revenue (DOR) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 10, 2023 Department of Revenue (DOR) January 10, 2023 1 DOR Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 21- Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf PBB Overview and Agency Highlights Pennsylvania State Police Department of Military & Veterans Affairs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 28, 2021 Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) April 28, 2021 1 PSP Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2019- Hits: 1
PBB-Board-Hearings-Schedule-2019.pdf Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Wednesday, January 23, 2019 Thursday, January 24, 2019 10:00 A.M. - 12 Hits: 1
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf 2021 Q2 data for S&P 500 as of June 11 2021. 2021 Q2 home price index is an estimate based on median increase in April home sales price. Growth rates at far right are cumulative growth rates since 2019 Q2 Hits: 1
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf Unemployment Assistance. PPP is Paycheck Protection Program. LWA is Lost Wage Assistance. Growth rates control for revenue shifts. Collections partially based on sales from prior month. Philadelphia values for Jan and Feb represent three-month average growth Dec to Feb. LWA Hits: 1
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf are year-over-year except Real GDP. Wage growth rates for 2021.2 and 2021.3 are estimates by IFO based on withholding data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Payroll Jobs: Change Hits: 1
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf Jun Aug Oct Dec-22 Feb EIP 2+3 = $21b PPP2 = $10b durable goods +23% all energy +46% supply chains "base year" effects money creation grocery +17% projection Philly CPI-U annual growth US Consumer Credit Card Debt Surges after Third Hits: 1
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf Keno/Xpress Sports 14 20 -10 -37 -27 Total 0 5 -17 -14 21 Note: Growth rates for May are based on weekly Lottery sales reports. Lottery Sales and Revenues June 22, 2020 18 Amounts Growth Rate 18-19 19-20 Hits: 1
novak ppt.pdf 152.4 2012:Q4 N.A. 2.7 N.A. 8.7 N.A. 126.3 Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels): 2011 1.7 1.8 9.0 9.0 111.5 106.5 2012 2.6 Hits: 1
NGQU_2023_Q3.pdf year (YOY) growth in quarterly production volume in Pennsylvania to seven other states. The states are listed in descending order based on total production volume in 2023 Q3. The eight states shown account for 86% of nationwide natural gas production. For Hits: 1
NGQU_2023_Q2.pdf year (YOY) growth in quarterly production volume in Pennsylvania to seven other states. The states are listed in descending order based on total production volume in 2023 Q2. The eight states shown account for 86% of nationwide natural gas production. For Hits: 1
NGPR_2022_Q4.pdf natural gas operators to compute statewide totals for production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production volume and well count data pertain only to Hits: 1
NGPR_2022_Q3.pdf natural gas operators to compute statewide totals for production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production volume and well count data pertain only to Hits: 1
NGPR_2022_Q2.pdf natural gas operators to compute statewide totals for production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production volume and well count data pertain only to Hits: 1
NGPR_2021_Q4.pdf natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas Hits: 1
NGPR_2021_Q3.pdf natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas Hits: 1
NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas Hits: 1
NGPR_2020_Q4.pdf natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas Hits: 1
NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas Hits: 1
NGPR-2022-Q1.pdf natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas Hits: 1
NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas Hits: 1
NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas Hits: 1
NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas Hits: 1
Newsstand_March_2020.pdf period in 2019. The average price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the PA Impact Fee is based, was $1.95 through March, a 38.0 percent decline from 2019. There were 138 new horizontal wells drilled through Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_September.pdf fac- tors. Pennsylvania Claims Title of Most Diverse State Economy Bloomberg recently released an Economic Diversity Index for the nation, based on gross domestic product (GDP) by industry and government. A diverse economy helps insulate states from large economic swings when Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_May.pdf to general mer- chandise and clothing stores. May 2019 National News Businesses Reduce Pace of Capital Expenditures in 2019 Q1 Based on financial filings by firms in the S&P 500, a May 19 article in the Wall Street Journal found Hits: 1
Newsstand_2019_March.pdf PA-NJ- DE-MD statistical area, which includes Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI-U increased 1.5%, led by gains in medical care (3.9%) and home furnishings (4.5%). Regional Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf The average price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania Impact Fee is based, settled at $2.63 for calendar year 2019. This represents a 15% decline from the prior year, and the lowest Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_August.pdf the average price of gas on the New York Mercantile Ex- change (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania Impact Fee is based, settled at its lowest level in over three years. Summer prices typically apply upward pressure on the calendar year average Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf force and the retirement of baby boomers. The article also discusses the Federal Reserve’s plan of action moving forward based on the report. IRS Releases Preliminary U.S. Income Tax Data for 2016 For most states, income tax revenues came Hits: 1
MRU-2020-3.pdf is currently scheduled for release on April 8 and will include the revenue outlook under two potential scenarios that are based on the duration of business closures in Pennsylvania. If you would like to be notified when the report is released Hits: 1
MRU-2020-08.pdf On August 27, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 based on its official estimate released June 22. Compared to those estimates, General Fund collections of $2,548.4 million in Hits: 1
MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdf for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. The monthly and quarterly estimates are based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (IFO Hits: 1
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. The monthly and quarterly estimates are based on (1) the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the In- dependent Fiscal Office (IFO) on Hits: 1
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf This report provides revised monthly estimates of General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates are based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the Independent Fiscal Hits: 1
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf This report provides revised monthly estimates for General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. The monthly estimates are based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on Hits: 1
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly and quarterly estimates are based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June Hits: 1
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf Motor License and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. The monthly and quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. CreationDate: 2021-09-16 17:36:25 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher for Microsoft 365 ModDate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdf 500 closing price for last trading day of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 15. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 16. The LEI base year is 2016 (100) and lower values suggest a higher likelihood of slower economic growth. Source: The Conference Board. 5 Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model projects an annualized growth rate of +35.3% for 2020 Q3 U.S. GDP based on available economic data for the third quarter. Pennsylvania Employment Expands 1.2% in September The U.S. Bureau of Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 12. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of the Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf by 3.9%. Well Being Trust forecasted the number of additional deaths of despair due to the COVID-19 Recession based on three economic recovery forecasts (same pattern as the Great Recession, twice as fast or four times as fast). The Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. CreationDate: 2021-07-14 14:45:35 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher for Microsoft 365 ModDate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf The average price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania impact fee is based, settled at $1.50 for July. This is the lowest monthly price in over 20 years. The average price for Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. CreationDate: 2021-01-20 02:36:46 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2021-01- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. CreationDate: 2021-02-18 16:29:37 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2021-02- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. CreationDate: 2021-02-18 16:25:22 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2021-02- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf The average price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania Impact Fee is based, settled at $2.08 for calendar year (CY) 2020. This represents a 21% decline from the prior year, and the Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 12. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of the Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. CreationDate: 2021-04-28 15:07:47 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher for Microsoft 365 ModDate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. CreationDate: 2021-04-28 15:07:47 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher for Microsoft 365 ModDate Hits: 1
Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania May 13, 2013 Based on new information received after the release of its original report on Medicaid expansion, the Independent Fiscal Office has published Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_Sept_2021.pdf status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data for August 2021, Pennsylvania payroll jobs contracted modestly in August relative to a no-pandemic scenario Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. Based on the latest data for June 2021, Pennsylvania payroll job creation improved notably relative to prior months. For June, the Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data for July 2021, Pennsylvania payroll jobs continue to recover from the impact of the pandemic. For Hits: 1
Kling_Presentation.pdf Sometimes the explanations are for a general audience. For instance, nearly all formal cost estimates include a section describing the basis of the estimate. Recent examples of other publications providing general information include the following:  A report on how CBO Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf an increase of $632 million (2.0 percent) over FY 2016-17. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to grow moderately Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf 3.8x the original amount of allowance revenues. • Conventional modeling assumes those costs would be pushed forward to final consumers. Based on the latest EIA data, one-third of that amount could be exported if generation did not change. The RGGI Hits: 1
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf by the Department of Revenue was $29.116 billion, a difference of $38.5 million. The IFO reviewed its estimate based on actual collections for the first half of the fiscal year and expectations for the second half. Through December, revenues Hits: 1
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf window. The imbalance is described as “potential” because policymakers have various tools to control expenditures on a temporary or permanent basis. Various factors affect projections of the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition in the forecast period:  The projections include mandatory (also Hits: 1
House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf noted in system CAFR. Unfunded Liability is final year UAL. Calculations by the IFO. 1 SERS reported on calendar year basis except for Employer Contribution Rate. Includes all funds. 2 SERS 2020 employer contributions include $1.1 billion prepayment in unfunded Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf projected imbalance expands to $1.7 billion in FY 2017-18 and reaches $3.0 billion by FY 2021-22 based on current fiscal policies. “While recently enacted revenue enhancements and expenditure policies had a meaningful impact on the FY 2016- Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through FY 2020-21. Based on assumptions used in the report, the evaluation finds that various factors contribute to a long-term fiscal imbalance. The Hits: 1
Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdf Dioxide Emissions Generation Emissions Emissions per Unit Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2021 Emissions are estimated by the IFO based on 2021 generation and 2020 emissions per unit. Author: Matthew Knittel Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 CreationDate: 2022-03- Hits: 1
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf last Decennial Census (April 1, 2020) to July 1 of the current year. The 2020 Decennial Census provided a new base of data with some methodological differences. As a result, pre- and post-2020 Census estimates may not be entirely comparable Hits: 1
DotPlotData.xlsx Plot SOURCE A A IFO Recode B B B F F F F F F F IFO Calculation IFO Calculation (based on Fair Funding Formula) G IFO Calculation E E IFO Calculation D D IFO Calculation 101260303 Albert Gallatin Area SD Hits: 1
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf 5 For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/about/processes. CBO makes no policy recommendations. It hires people on the basis of their expertise without regard to political affiliation. The agency carefully considers whether potential analysts can perform objective analysis, regardless Hits: 1
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf Reporting 2 of them have an NOL cap (CT at 50%, NH at $10m) IFO projects Combined Reporting expands tax base by 12% DOR projects it is 29%; 5% of firms pay entire increase Note: Figures in dollar millions. Source: Independent Hits: 1
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf for the current fiscal year. The recent Executive Budget did not change the certified number.) The IFO’s reduction was based on two factors: • At the mid-point in the fiscal year, growth rates for the General Fund and its key Hits: 1
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf projects improvement in wages in early 2013. PIT – Withholding Quarterly Growth Rates Quarterly revenues are aligned to allow for comparability based on payment due dates. PA Wages – Quarterly Growth Rates Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2013 PA forecast. 2.0% 3 Hits: 1