IFO - Search Results

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Economic and Budget Outlook The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2023-24 to FY 2028-29 on November 15 at 1:30 pm. Long-term issues that impact the outlook include the expiration of federal relief programs, a rapidly expanding 75+ age cohort and the depletion of surplus balances that currently generate significant interest income. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. Tags: budget, economic, outlook, presentation
Budget Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers. Tags: brief, budget, contracts, impact, research, wage
Economic and Budget Outlook Hearing Request The IFO published a letter in response to requests for additional information raised at a recent economic and budget outlook hearing on January 24, 2023. Tags: budget, economic, request
Economic and Budget Outlook Presentation The IFO presented results from its five-year outlook report published in November 2022. Tags: budget, economic, presentation
PBB Overview Presentation for PID and EO IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices is posted on the website. Tags: budgeting, performance
PBB Overview Presentation for DOR IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Revenue is posted on the website. Tags: budgeting, performance
PBB Overview Presentation for DCNR and DDAP IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources and the Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs is posted on the website. Tags: budgeting, performance
Executive Offices Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Executive Offices. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023. Tags: budgeting, performance
Pennsylvania Insurance Department Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023. The report was reposted on January 18, 2023 to correct a single year of data on page 14. Tags: budgeting, performance
Department of Revenue Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Revenue. Approved by the PBB Board on January 10, 2023. Tags: budgeting, performance
Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Drug and Alcohol. Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023. Tags: budgeting, performance
Department of Conservation and Natural Resources Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023. Tags: budgeting, performance
Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. Tags: budget, economic, outlook, presentation
Department of Human Services - Part 3 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3). Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10. Tags: budgeting, performance
Department of Education Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education. Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16. The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022. The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022. Tags: budgeting, performance
Department of Aging Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging. Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1. Tags: budgeting, performance
PBB Overview Presentation for PDE IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education is posted on the website. Tags: budgeting, performance
Economic and Budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30. Tags: budget, demographics, economic, estimates, presentation
Budget Hearing Materials 2022 The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its budget hearings. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. Tags: budget, hearings
PBB Overview Presentation for PDE and Agriculture IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education and the Department of Agriculture is posted on the website. Tags: budgeting, performance
PBB Overview Presentation for Aging and DHS (Part 3) IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Aging and the Department of Human Services (Part 3) is posted on the website. Tags: budgeting, performance
PBB Overview Presentation for DLI and PHMC IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission is posted on the website. Tags: budgeting, performance
Department of Agriculture Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture. Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21. Tags: budgeting, performance
Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commision. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022. Tags: budgeting, performance
Department of Labor and Industry Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Labor and Industry. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022. Tags: budgeting, performance
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. Tags: budget, economic, outlook
Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. Tags: budget, economic, outlook, revenue
PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ Tax Credit Report Presentation The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based Budget Board. Tags: based, budget, credit, performance, tax
Department of Military and Veterans Affairs Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. Tags: budgeting, performance
Department of Human Services - Part 2 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 2). Tags: budgeting, performance
Department of Transportation Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Transportation. Tags: budgeting, performance
Pennsylvania State Police Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania State Police. Tags: budgeting, performance
Economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update for the PACP Chamber Day. Tags: budget, economic, presentation
PBB Overview Presentation for PSP and DMVA IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania State Police and the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs is posted on the website. Tags: budgeting, performance
PBB Overview Presentation for PennDOT and DHS (Part 2) IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Transportation and the Department of Human Services (Part 2). Tags: budgeting, performance
Senate Budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment based on gender, net domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states. Tags: budget, hearing
Budget and Economic Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. Tags: budget, economic, employment, gas, presentation
House Budget Hearing Request The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question was related to the indirect costs associated with state marijuana legalization that may not be reflected in official revenue estimates. Tags: budget, hearing
Budget and Economic Update Presentation Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals. Tags: budget, economic, presentation
Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its scheduled budget hearings. This packet examines the minimum wage, personal and corporate income tax and other proposals included in the FY 2021-22 Executive Budget. Tags: budget, hearing
Economic and Budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. Tags: budget, demographic, economic, estimates, presentation, property
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. Tags: budget, economic, outlook
Senate Budget Hearing Request The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Tags: budget, hearing
House Budget Hearing Request The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. Tags: budget, hearing
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2024-25 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2024 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2024-25 state budget. 08/23/2024
General Fund Surplus Likely Depleted Next Year This research brief uses the recently passed state budget for FY 24-25 to update deficit estimates for the current and subsequent fiscal year. 07/18/2024
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past twelve budget cycles. For FY 2023-24, actual collections exceeded IFO projections by 0.6%, or $273 million. 07/09/2024
Economic and budget Update Presentation The IFO presented on the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. 04/05/2024
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2024-25 Governor's Executive budget released February 2024. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget." 03/28/2024
Senate budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to requests for additional information raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The requests relate to an adjusted financial statement, public assistance savings resulting from a higher minimum wage, impact of the Ohio rate structure on Pennsylvania tax liability, net migration for Pennsylvania, regional student loan debt comparison and U3 and U6 unemployment rates. 03/06/2024
2024 budget Hearing Materials The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the Senate Appropriations Committee ahead of its budget hearing. The packet includes data on the state budget, revenue proposals, economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. 02/20/2024
budget Roundtable Request The IFO responded to questions raised at the House budget Roundtable on January 31, 2024. 02/09/2024
Economic and budget Update Presentation Director Knittel made a presentation of the mid-year update to the House budget Roundtable. 01/31/2024
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised monthly General Fund revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 based on projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023 (includes adjustments released with the original monthly estimates in August 2023) adjusted to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in December 2023. 01/29/2024
Tax Credits and Economic Development Incentives This report presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2023-24 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The report also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. 01/09/2024
Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2023
Economic and budget Outlook The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2023-24 to FY 2028-29 on November 15 at 1:30 pm. Long-term issues that impact the outlook include the expiration of federal relief programs, a rapidly expanding 75+ age cohort and the depletion of surplus balances that currently generate significant interest income. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 11/08/2023
2023 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the Economic and budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 in November 2023. 10/19/2023
budget Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers. 08/14/2023
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eleven budget cycles. 08/10/2023
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2023-24 Executive budget released March 2023. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget." 05/03/2023
Economic and budget Update The IFO presented an Economic and budget Update to the PA Motor Truck Association. 04/19/2023
Senate budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to net migration for Pennsylvania, U3 and U6 unemployment rates, tax burden and labor force participation rates for Pennsylvania and border states, Pennsylvania’s declining workforce and the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit. 04/05/2023
State Rainy Day and General Fund Balances The IFO posted a new research brief that uses published data from The Pew Charitable Trusts to rank states based on the ratio of (1) Rainy Day Fund balances and (2) Total Balances (Rainy Day plus General Fund) to General Fund expenditures for enacted FY 2022-23 budgets. 03/24/2023
budget Hearing Materials 2023 The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the Senate Appropriations Committee ahead of its budget hearing. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. 03/16/2023
Economic and budget Outlook Hearing Request The IFO published a letter in response to requests for additional information raised at a recent economic and budget outlook hearing on January 24, 2023. 02/10/2023
Economic and budget Outlook Presentation The IFO presented results from its five-year outlook report published in November 2022. 01/24/2023
PBB Overview Presentation for PID and EO IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices is posted on the website. 01/11/2023
PBB Overview Presentation for DOR IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Revenue is posted on the website. 01/10/2023
PBB Overview Presentation for DCNR and DDAP IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources and the Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs is posted on the website. 01/09/2023
Executive Offices Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Executive Offices. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023. 01/05/2023
Pennsylvania Insurance Department Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023. The report was reposted on January 18, 2023 to correct a single year of data on page 14. 01/05/2023
Department of Revenue Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Revenue. Approved by the PBB Board on January 10, 2023. 01/05/2023
Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Drug and Alcohol. Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023. 01/05/2023
Department of Conservation and Natural Resources Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023. 01/05/2023
Tax Credits and Economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. This research brief was reposted on December 21 to correct a text error on page 1. 12/15/2022
Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2022
Economic and budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/02/2022
REVENUE ESTIMATE PERFORMANCE This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past ten budget cycles. 10/12/2022
2022 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28. 10/05/2022
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. 09/01/2022
Student Loan Debt Forgiveness The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. 08/31/2022
Inflation's Impact on the Pennsylvania Economy On June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget. 06/07/2022
Department of Human Services - Part 3 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3). Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10. 05/04/2022
Department of Education Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education. Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16. The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022. The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022. 04/27/2022
Department of Aging Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging. Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1. 04/26/2022
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2022-23 Executive budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget." 04/08/2022
budget AND ECONOMIC UPDATE PRESENTATION Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. 03/31/2022
Senate budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to two questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to an update of the IFO’s five-year projections for revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive budget and an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors. 03/21/2022
House budget Hearing Request The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question relates to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment by race. 03/21/2022
PBB Overview Presentation for PDE IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education is posted on the website. 03/09/2022
Economic and budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30. 03/04/2022
budget Hearing Materials 2022 The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its budget hearings. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. 02/22/2022
PBB Overview Presentation for PDE and Agriculture IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education and the Department of Agriculture is posted on the website. 01/26/2022
PBB Overview Presentation for Aging and DHS (Part 3) IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Aging and the Department of Human Services (Part 3) is posted on the website. 01/25/2022
PBB Overview Presentation for DLI and PHMC IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission is posted on the website. 01/24/2022
Department of Agriculture Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture. Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21. 01/20/2022
Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commision. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022. 01/20/2022
Department of Labor and Industry Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Labor and Industry. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022. 01/20/2022
Economic Outlook and Property Tax Update Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook and School District Property Tax Forecast. 11/16/2021
Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2021
2021 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27. 11/15/2021
Economic and budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/04/2021
PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ Tax Credit Report Presentation The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based budget Board. 09/28/2021
Department of Military and Veterans Affairs Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. 09/24/2021
Department of Human Services - Part 2 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 2). 09/24/2021
Department of Transportation Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Transportation. 09/24/2021
Pennsylvania State Police Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania State Police. 09/24/2021
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past nine budget cycles. 09/16/2021
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget. 08/31/2021
Performance-Based budget Board Hearing Request The IFO responded to a question raised during the Performance-Based budget Board hearing on April 26, 2021 by providing Neighborhood Assistance Program and the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit awards by region or county. 05/04/2021
PBB Overview Presentation for PSP and DMVA IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania State Police and the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs is posted on the website. 04/28/2021
PBB Overview Presentation for PennDOT and DHS (Part 2) IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Transportation and the Department of Human Services (Part 2). 04/27/2021
School Property Tax, Senior Spending and Tax Revenues In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups. 04/23/2021
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2021-22 Executive budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget." 04/22/2021
Senate budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment based on gender, net domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states. 04/09/2021
budget and Economic Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. 03/31/2021
House budget Hearing Request The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question was related to the indirect costs associated with state marijuana legalization that may not be reflected in official revenue estimates. 03/23/2021
budget and Economic Update Presentation Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals. 03/11/2021
budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its scheduled budget hearings. This packet examines the minimum wage, personal and corporate income tax and other proposals included in the FY 2021-22 Executive budget. 03/04/2021
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. 02/23/2021
Economic and budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. 02/19/2021
Five Year Economic and budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 01/21/2021
January 2021 Economic and budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 01/11/2021
Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook. 09/08/2020
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eight budget cycles. 09/03/2020
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget. 08/27/2020
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget.” 04/23/2020
Senate budget Hearing Request The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. 03/11/2020
House budget Hearing Request The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. 03/11/2020
Economic and budget Update Presentation Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. 02/28/2020
budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings. Testimony 02/14/2020
OBMD, MTBI, R&D, and KIZ Tax Credit Reviews and PBB Overview for DCED, DOH and DHS IFO presentation of Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, Research and Development and Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Reviews and Performance-Based budget highlights for the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Health and Department of Human Services. 01/22/2020
PBB Overview Presentation for PEMA, DOS and DEP IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency, Department of State and Department of Environmental Protection. 01/22/2020
Performance-Based budget Board Hearings Agenda- Year 2 The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 01/21/2020
Department of Human Services - Part 1 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-Based budget Board. 01/21/2020
Department of Community and Economic Development Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Community and Economic Development. 01/21/2020
Department of Health Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Health. 01/20/2020
Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. 01/16/2020
Department of State Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State. 01/16/2020
Department of Environmental Protection Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Environmental Protection. 01/16/2020
FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND budget OUTLOOK Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release. 11/14/2019
Five Year Economic and budget Outlook Announcement: The IFO will present its Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The Tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on Pennsylvania's tax and business climate. 11/06/2019
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 08/28/2019
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. 08/08/2019
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past seven budget cycles. 07/26/2019
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/18/2019
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/20/2019
budget and Economic Update Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants regarding an update on Pennsylvania's budget and economic landscape. 06/11/2019
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/22/2019
IFO News Stand - April Edition The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/22/2019
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget." 03/22/2019
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 03/19/2019
Special Fund Receipts and Disbursements and Ambulatory Surgical Center Assessment The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked for an update to a February 12, 2018 report on the receipts and disbursements of certain special funds and information on how Pennsylvania compares to other states with regard to the use of special funds. Another committee member asked about the proposed ambulatory surgical center assessment for the Department of Human Services (DHS). 03/13/2019
Economic & budget Outlook Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 03/01/2019
budget Hearings Packet For Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings. Testimony 02/11/2019
Performance-Based budget Board Hearings Agenda- Revised The IFO has posted a revised agenda for the upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 01/22/2019
Performance-Based budget Reviews Click on the hyperlink above to access the five performance-based budget reviews and presentations. 01/18/2019
Performance-Based budget Board Hearings Agenda The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 01/16/2019
Performance-Based budget Board Hearings Schedule The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 12/14/2018
IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 12/11/2018
IFO News Stand - November Edition The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 11/20/2018
PA Fiscal Update and Outlook Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania that reviews highlights from the IFO's recent Economic and budget Outlook. 11/19/2018
FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND budget OUTLOOK Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release. 11/15/2018
IFO News Stand - October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 10/17/2018
Performance-Based budgeting Update On October 15, Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Performance-Based budget Board which provided an update regarding Act 48 implementation. 10/16/2018
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 08/20/2018
MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY REVENUE ESTIMATES This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 07/30/2018
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past six budget cycles. 07/25/2018
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/24/2018
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/19/2018
budget and Economic Update Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants. 06/12/2018
budget And Economic Update with Property Tax Discussion Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO). Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman also discussed an updated school district property tax forecast and recent proposed legislation. 06/05/2018
budget and Economic Update Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the Allegheny Conference on Community Development and the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia. 06/04/2018
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/16/2018
IFO News Stand - April Edition The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/20/2018
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget.” 04/18/2018
Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder - a Multi-Jurisdiction Comparison The Independent Fiscal Office responded to a question raised at the office's recent budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked how Pennsylvania compares to other states regarding the share of owner-occupied households in which the homeowner is age 60 or over. The response includes multi-jurisdiction comparisons for householders who are age 60 or over, age 65 or over and age 75 or over. 03/12/2018
budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20. The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table 02/16/2018
SPECIAL FUND RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS In response to a legislative request, the IFO compiled certain data presented in the Governor’s Executive budget for various years to produce a multi-year history of receipts and disbursements for selected special funds. The letter identifies certain special fund budgeting and reporting issues that should be considered when analyzing the data. The letter also provides computations for a potential budget increase factor based on the annual increases in population and the consumer price index. 02/15/2018
Performance-Based budget and Tax Credit Review Schedule The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budgets and tax credit reviews. 01/30/2018
Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/29/2018
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past five budget cycles. 12/22/2017
Updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget. 12/21/2017
Pennsylvania Fiscal Update Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) to provide background on the IFO and an update on Pennsylvania’s short- and long-term budget outlook. 12/13/2017
Five Year Economic and budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share 11/16/2017
Pennsylvania Fiscal Outlook Presentation Director Matthew Knittel addressed the Society of Municipal Analysts to provide an update on Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook, demographics and current budget status. 10/19/2017
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget. 08/10/2017
budget and Economic Update Director Matt Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA). 06/07/2017
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget.” Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017) 04/05/2017
Senate budget Hearing Requests The IFO provided additional information to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee in response to requests made at its recent budget hearing. 03/10/2017
House budget Hearing Requests The IFO provided additional information to members of the House Appropriations Committee in response to requests made at its recent budget hearing. 03/10/2017
Economic Forecast Summit Presentation Director Matthew Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Fifth Annual Economic Forecast Summit sponsored by the Pennsylvania Chamber Educational Foundation and the Pennsylvania Bankers Association. 02/28/2017
Department of Corrections Performance Measures At the request of the General Assembly, the IFO has published a performance measurement report for the Department of Corrections (DOC) in advance of the agency’s budget hearings. The report includes agency cost-drivers, performance metrics and multi-state comparisons. The DOC report arises from the IFO’s 2016 report, “Using Performance Measures in the State budget,” in which the office outlined options for performance measurement and provided a prototype report that could be integrated into the state budget process and utilized during annual budget hearings. 02/27/2017
budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21. The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Download a version for optimized web viewing 02/16/2017
Pennsylvania Gaming Trends This research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16. 02/13/2017
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 02/10/2017
Five Year Economic and budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk 11/15/2016
Using Performance Measures in the State budget Discusses performance-based budgeting and how it could be integrated into Pennsylvania's budget process. Highlights how other states are effectively using performance measures in their budget systems. Includes a prototype report which could be used in agency budget hearings and provides a method for quick integration. 09/19/2016
Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. 08/24/2016
Revenue Estimate Performance Examination of the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past four budget cycles (August 2016). 08/12/2016
The Commonwealth’s budget Outlook: FY 2016‐17 and Beyond Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Greater Pittsburgh Nonprofit Partnership regarding the Commonwealth's budget outlook for FY 2016-17 and beyond. 06/08/2016
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget.” 04/21/2016
The Implications of an Aging Populace for the State budget Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the budgetary implications of an aging populace at a conference sponsored by the Pennsylvania budget and Policy Center. 03/03/2016
budget and Economic Update Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic and revenue update to the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce. 01/29/2016
Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21 This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (Updated January 2016) Presentation 01/27/2016
Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding proposed changes to personal income and sales tax Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding changes to the personal income and sales taxes proposed in the Executive budget. The information was presented at a public hearing conducted by the Senate Finance Committee (June 2015). 06/10/2015
index.cfm Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Energy Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases Economic and Property Tax Update by the IFO on June 20, 2024 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2024-25 state budget. ... (Full Report) 2022 Property Tax Burden by County Property Tax August 21, 2024 This research brief uses (1) income data Hits: 108
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf us - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 81
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf The Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2012-13 to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report posted to pensions.  Guest speaker: Ms. Katharine Witgert (NASHP).  Revenue Outlook  Where will growth come from? The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 2 15.Nov.2012 Some Questions  What implications do broad demographic trends have for revenues and expenditures Hits: 62
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf DRAFT About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 53
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This Hits: 50
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This Hits: 49
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This Hits: 49
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 49
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 48
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 48
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 47
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 45
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This Hits: 43
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 42
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 41
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 41
IFO ppt.pdf January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Background • Public Act 120 of 2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year outlook Hits: 41
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This Hits: 39
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 38
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Kathleen Hall, Modeling and Development Analyst II Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and Hits: 37
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview ............................................................................................................... 1 Expenditures ......................................................................................................... 2 Executive Budget Financial Statement ............................................................................................... 3 Expenditure Detail ................................................................................................. 4 Revenues – Fiscal Year-To-Date ............................................................................. 5 Adjustments to Official Estimate ............................................................................. 6 Executive Budget vs. IFO ....................................................................................... 7 Revenue Proposals Minimum Wage Rates by State ............................................................................... 8 Increasing Minimum Wage to $15 ........................................................................... 9 Marijuana Taxes .................................................................................................. 10 Hits: 37
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 36
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an Hits: 35
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2019-2020 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.293 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition Hits: 35
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and Hits: 33
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and Hits: 33
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This review Hits: 32
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the Hits: 32
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf Advances in Public Policy Modeling The Penn Wharton Budget Model Kent Smetters \ November, 15 2018 Overview Penn Wharton Budget Model 2 1) Use cutting-edge economic modeling, data science and cloud computing to provide policymakers and support staff with Hits: 31
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This Hits: 31
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Jackson Wilken, IFO Intern (June to August 2021) Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and Hits: 30
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf Chairmen and Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2023-2024 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.34 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition Hits: 30
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Historical revenue and ex- penditure data are from the Governor’s Executive Budget, the state accounting system and various departmental reports. All revenue and expenditure projections are from the IFO. Other data sources federal matching rate (FMAP) and a rapidly expanding age 75+ population that requires long-term care. Relative to the enacted budget, the FY 2023-24 deficit for this outlook is $425 million lower. That compar- ison uses the financial statement from Hits: 30
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: flill@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and Hits: 29
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review Hits: 28
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf January 2012 The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-2017 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Forward Act 120 of 2010 establishes the Independent Fiscal 2010 Census. Historical revenue and expenditure data are from the Commonwealth’s Consolidated Annual Financial Report, the Governor’s Executive Budget and various departmental reports. Other data sources are noted in the relevant sections of this report. The Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 28
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2020-2021 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.34 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition Hits: 28
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released in February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604- Hits: 27
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This Hits: 27
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 15, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Hits: 26
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf employers. The cost projections for the REHP are prepared jointly by the Office of Administration and the Office of the Budget, and with the assistance and review of an actuarial consulting firm (Buck Consultants). The Office of Administration’s Employee Benefits ROONEY, WALKO AND HALUSKA, MARCH 21, 2005 AS AMENDED, HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, SEPTEMBER 27, 2005 A RESOLUTION Directing the Legislative Budget and Finance Committee PUBLIC <— 1 EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION to study the feasibility of 2 providing State premium assistance to surviving Hits: 26
RB 2019 RACP.pdf programs and total debt levels in other states. Program Overview RACP is a grant program administered by the Governor’s Budget Office (GBO). It provides funding for the acquisition and construction of local economic, cultural, civic, recreational and historical improvement projects statute. Key program guidelines are as follows: 1  All grant awards must be included in at least one Capital Budget Project Itemization Act and have remaining project allocation amounts.  Programs must meet the statutory definition(s) of an eligible Hits: 25
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2020 Popula- tion Estimates by Hits: 25
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf July 1, 1996, any reference in this part to the limitation under IRC § 401(a)(17) shall mean the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 (OBRA '93) (Public Law 103-66, 107 Stat. 312) annual compensation limit set forth in this 38 July 1, 2048 0.40 July 1, 2049 0.42 § 8330. Appropriations by the Commonwealth. (a) Annual submission of budget.--The board shall prepare and through the Governor submit annually to the General Assembly an itemized budget consisting of the Hits: 25
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf Overview of Act 48 Implementation October 15, 2018 Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board Act 48 Overview  Act 48 of 2017 directs the IFO to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for each agency under the Governor’s jurisdiction and conduct tax credit reviews every fifth year  The Hits: 24
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf Chairmen and Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2022-2023 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.34 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition Hits: 24
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf Chairmen and Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2021-2022 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.34 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition Hits: 24
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office (August 2019) or IHS Markit (October 2019). Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabu- lations from the 2018 Population Hits: 23
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling & Development Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released in February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Hits: 22
Kling_Presentation.pdf Congressional Budget Office Presentation for the Independent Fiscal Office, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2018 Jeffrey Kling Associate Director for Economic Analysis Transparency at CBO For more information, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update on Transparency at CBO (August 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/54372. 1 CBO  Enhance the credibility Hits: 22
RB-2016-02.pdf or programs, for short) into three categories: (1) tax incentives, (2) General Fund and special fund expenditures and (3) off‐budget expenditures. The dollar amounts reported for each incentive represent the amount available or distributed for economic development in the applicable Ðinanced current or prior economic development spending are not included in the tables, but are itemized separately in the off‐ budget expenditures discussion. For programs Ðinanced through debt service, the amounts reported represent the actual awards or distributions in the applicable Hits: 21
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2017-2018 Governor’s Executive Budget proposed an appropriation of $2.076 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition Hits: 20
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2017-2018 Governor’s Executive Budget proposed an appropriation of $2.076 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition Hits: 20
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public Hits: 19
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2018-2019 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.226 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition Hits: 19
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review Hits: 17
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf Marks, Deputy Auditor General for Audits, PA Department of the Auditor General. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75Testimony of Charles B. Zogby, Secretary of the Budget, Commonwealth of PA.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82Testimony of James B. Allen, Secretary, PA Municipal Retirement System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT’D) Page as of 12/31/11, PSERS as of 6/30/11. The Keystone Pension Report, Governor’s Office of the Budget, 1 November 2012, p. 7. Independent Fiscal Office, The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, November Hits: 17
perez ppt.pdf State Budget Update Arturo Pérez NCSL Fiscal Affairs Program Director Overview – State fiscal conditions continue to improve, but at a very slow pace. – Revenue performance is solid – Expenditures are stable – Budget gaps are few in FY 2012 Overview (continued) – States face ongoing budget challenges. – State tax collections remain below pre-recession Hits: 16
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 19, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on Hits: 15
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public Hits: 15
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review Hits: 15
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf each incentive is an estimate of the dollars claimed or awarded each fiscal year. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The estimates represent a mix DCED). Figures for certain tax credits and spending programs that were not available from either agency are from the Executive Budget or are estimates by the IFO. For recent years, estimates from these sources may simply reflect total credits awarded or Hits: 15
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 15
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf remarks, I would like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent economic indicators provide different perspectives on the state and national economies. Some national indicators suggest 200 million, and the revised amount is $50 million higher than the corresponding amount in the FY 2016‐17 Executive Budget. Three factors motivate the upward revision to revenues:  Very strong growth in PIT estimated payments. Through the first seven Hits: 15
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review Hits: 14
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General April 17, 2018 This document provides an analysis of the tax proposals included in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released in February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) pub- lishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section Hits: 14
Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf amount reported is an estimate of the dollars claimed or awarded each fiscal year. For FY 2023-24, amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded. Tax Credits In FY 2022-23, $857.0 or allocated for economic development projects, an increase of $125.3 million from the prior year. Nearly $512 million is budgeted for economic development projects and grants in FY 2023-24 (See table on page 5.) Notable programs include: • Distributions from Hits: 13
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2024-25 Governor’s Executive Budget released in February 2024. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources Hits: 13
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General 2019 This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released in February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604- Hits: 13
EPLC_April_2024.pdf Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Matthew Knittel, Director Economic & Budget Update Education Policy and Leadership Center April 5, 2024 April 5, 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office Most states have Slide 2 Education Policy & Leadership Center • Revenue estimates \| Economic & demographic trends • Economic analysis of executive revenue proposals • 5-Year Economic & Budget Outlook • Performance-based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews • Pension analysis \| Dynamic modeling \| Economic impact • Analyze impact of collective bargaining agreements Special Hits: 13
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 24, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on Hits: 12
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review Hits: 12
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review Hits: 12
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce February 12, 2015 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office Budget and Economic Update What Is the Independent Fiscal Office? • Our role in the budget process. • Other products and publications. Tax Revenues and Budget Deficits. • Tax revenues through January 2015. • Revisions to FY 2014-15 Hits: 12
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the The Commonwealth’s Budget Outlook: FY 2016‐17 and Beyond Greater Pittsburgh Nonprofit Partnership June 8, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Hits: 12
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General businesses reopen and ramp up operations. Table 1.2 displays the U.S. economic forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and IHS Markit. 3 For 2020, the forecasts project that U.S. real GDP will decline by 6.0 and Hits: 12
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf IFO) at this informational hearing. The IFO was created by Act 120 of 2010 to provide revenue projections and other budget and economic analysis to the General Assembly and the public. The office currently has 10 staff, including myself. I was recent weakness in sales tax, and we will monitor that tax source as we prepare to release our five-year budget projections in November. Related to revenues, the state economy is performing as expected. Through July, the labor market produced 62 Hits: 12
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf 012,592 Tobacco Settlement 672,493 Solid Waste-Resource Recovery Dev. 0 ---------------------- Total 9,573,148 Source: Governor's Executive Budget 2019-20, pp. H1 - H98. Note: dollar amounts in thousands. Special fund disbursements for the current fiscal year (listed as the "available" year in the financial statement) include a budgeted amount for the current fiscal year plus unspent funds from prior fiscal years. This practice helps ensure that current commitments Hits: 11
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released in February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Hits: 11
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Labor Statistics. Economic Outlook \| Page 3 Table 1.2 displays the U.S. economic forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and IHS Markit. 3 For 2020, the forecasts project that U.S. real GDP will decline by 6.0 and Hits: 11
RB_2023_03_Rainy_Day_Fund.pdf report on Rainy Day and General Fund balances for all 50 states based on enacted fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 budgets. 1 The balances reflect amounts reported for the start of the fiscal year, and amounts realized by the end of billion, 11.6% of enacted General Fund expenditures for FY 2022-23. (Using data from the FY 2023-24 Executive Budget, the share of expenditures increases to 12.1% for FY 2022-23.) Pennsylvania ranked 27 th across all states and Hits: 11
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf borrowers with original loan balances of $12,000 or less. 1 This research brief presents estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model on the federal budget impact of the changes, the impact across household income quintiles and uses those findings to estimate the potential impact on Hits: 11
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Non-partisan fiscal and budgetary analysis.  Began operations in September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Office does not make policy recommendations. Primary duties:  Revenue projections: May 1 and June 15.  Analyze impact of state employee wage contracts.  Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 7/14/2017 2 Today’s Presentation PA’s long-term structural Hits: 11
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on Hits: 10
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf blank. - General Findings and Recommendations \| Page 3 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 29, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on Hits: 10
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review Hits: 10
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Martin: This letter responds to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Chairman Martin requested an adjusted financial statement to reflect: (1) Department of Human million annually, (2) $425 million in annual spending for existing programs/line items that were not funded in the Executive Budget, (3) basic education funding that increases by $650 million annually, (4) phase down of State Police funding from the Motor Hits: 10
NFIB_Presentation.pdf NFIB) December 13, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Who we are. ◦ Established September 2011; 10 staff, but expanding. ◦ Like the Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of Hits: 10
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Supply non-partisan analysis. • No governing board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at request of General Assembly.  Office makes NO policy Hits: 10
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on Hits: 9
RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdf 2023 through June 30, 2027. The AFSCME CBA is by far the largest agreement and comprised 65% of the total budget impact of all CBAs that required IFO review in the prior term (2019 to 2023). Historically, once this contract is approved, other CBAs will contain similar provisions. This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the AFSCME ratified CBA apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as Hits: 9
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2018 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018-19 to 2023-24, is available for download on the Hits: 9
House Budget Hearing Request.pdf Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter responds to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Dunbar asked about the number of states that currently use incremental budgeting. According to a report issued by The National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) in August of 2015, incremental budgeting Hits: 9
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General its findings to the General Assembly no later than July 1, 2020.” The act also requires the Legislative Budget and Finance Committee (LBFC) to “evaluate the environmental impact and impact on residents” for the same types of regulations. The IFO submits Hits: 8
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf 17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter and the attached table respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Browne requested an update of the IFO’s five-year projections of General Fund revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget. The fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and 2022-23 revenue projections in the updated General Fund financial statement (next page Hits: 8
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22, will be available for Hits: 8
Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 9, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21, will be available for Hits: 8
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 19, 2021 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Hits: 8
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf Director How CBO Supports the Congress For information about the host, see www.ifo.state.pa.us. 1 CBO Provides Budget and Economic Analysis to Support the Congressional Budget Process For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/about. 2 For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic- Hits: 8
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf of eight. Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2014-15 Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $1.675 million for the office, which is the same as the amount appropriated for the departure of a staff member. Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Hits: 8
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf cash flow costs/ (savings) as of June 30, 2018, assuming end of year payment, at 3.6% (a proxy for budget growth) and 7.25/7.5% (the investment return used in PSERS’/SERS’ cost notes). The 3.6% proxy for budget growth is based on the average annual growth in projected General Fund revenue from FY 2017-18 to 2021-22 Hits: 8
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on Hits: 7
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 24, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Sen- ate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public Hits: 7
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal made on a “current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or administrative actions proposed in the 2021-22 Executive Budget. The General Fund The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official FY 2020-21 General Fund revenue estimate of $35 Hits: 7
Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf How did they occur? What are the projected trends? Five-year projections (current law) for pension expenditures in the PA budget. 7/15/2015 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 7/15/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (active, inactive Hits: 7
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_11_2023.pdf PBB Agency Highlights Pennsylvania Insurance Department (PID) Executive Offices (EO) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 11, 2023 Pennsylvania Insurance Department (PID) January 11, 2023 1 PID Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 21-22 2.9 1 23 10 Total 249.3 100 240 100 Note: Includes all expenditures in $ millions. FTEs Expenditures PID Budgeted Funds by Activity (FY 22-23) January 11, 2023 3 Funds Product & Rate Review Consumer Services Prof. Lic. & Market Conduct Hits: 7
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal made on a “current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or administrative actions proposed in the 2021-22 Executive Budget. The General Fund The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official FY 2020-21 General Fund revenue estimate of $35 Hits: 7
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf Under current law, MVSUT collections are primarily deposited into the General Fund. • Provide for the entire Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) budget from the General Fund. The MLF currently provides significant funds for the PSP. • Reduce motor fuel taxes, currently imposed at tax changes are fully passed through to consumers and reflected in retail prices. A recent analysis by the UPenn Wharton Budget Model found that 58% to 87% of temporary state gasoline tax cuts were passed through to final consumers. 1 As Hits: 7
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s five-year economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25, is available for download on the Hits: 7
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2013 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Independent Fiscal Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19, provides data and analysis Hits: 7
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 4, 2022 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage March 4, 2022 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Hits: 7
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 28, 2020 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues:  Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?)  Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews  Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation Hits: 7
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf that may result from compliance with the bill, and that, following certification of such losses by the Secretary of the Budget, the Commonwealth shall reimburse the retirement systems for these losses. The provisions of the bill would expire upon the occurrence previously called for a study of the divestment issue. House Resolution Number 263, adopted May 7, 2003, directed the Legislative Budget & Finance Committee (LB&FC) to study the “global security risk” attendant to pension fund investments in companies with business activities Hits: 7
About IFO and US Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis working paper series. Marissa Litman Deputy Director Formerly employed as Director of Budget Policy & Analysis for the School District of Philadelphia where she managed the district's multiyear financial plan projections and financial Karen Maynard Fiscal Analyst III Ms. Maynard joined the IFO in 2012 and her primary responsibilities include leading performance-based budgeting projects, coordinating forecasts of department expenditures and forecasting the Lottery Fund. Other responsibilities include working on special projects pertaining to Hits: 7
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on Hits: 6
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on Hits: 6
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 24, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on Hits: 6
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 24, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public Hits: 6
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf contracted actuary. Revenue projections were performed by the IFO using data from IHS Markit and the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28 released in November 2022. Other data sources are noted within this report federal and state special funds. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO's Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2022). Tax revenues for FY 2028-29 and beyond are assumed to grow at the same rate as Hits: 6
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf 17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter and the attached tables respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Schwank asked about job loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic by states in the education sector and the impact of immigration on the state economy. Page 9 of the IFO’s budget hearings packet contains total net domestic migration trends by state from the U.S. Census Bureau from 2011 through 2019 Hits: 6
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg Hits: 6
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 6
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf Kar About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or adminis- trative actions proposed in the 2019-20 Executive Budget . The General Fund In June 2018, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official General Fund revenue estimate of $33.9 billion Hits: 6
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November 2023). 4 Tax revenues for FY 2029-30 and beyond are assumed to grow at current funding status. 3 See: IFO Mid-Year Update, Fiscal Year 2023-24 (January 2024). 4 See: Pennsylvania Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 (November 2023). PSERS Stress Test Impact Analysis \| Page 2 The IFO also Hits: 6
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November 2022). 4 Tax revenues for FY 2028-29 and beyond are assumed to grow at on current funding status. 3 See: IFO Mid-Year Update, Fiscal Year 2022-23 (January 2023). 4 See: Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook, Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28 (November 2022). PSERS Stress Test Impact Analysis \| Page 2 The IFO also Hits: 6
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 16, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, is available for download on the Hits: 6
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Long-Term Fiscal Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 10, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15 Hits: 6
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook INITIAL REVENUE ESTIMATE FISCAL YEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May 1, 2018 000 NOLs-Other 151 IFO Revised Official 34,745 9.7% Administration Official (Nov 17) 34,704 9.6% Executive Budget (Feb 18) 34,752 9.7% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Review of FY 2017-18 Estimates May.01.2018 Hits: 6
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS & THE PA ECONOMY PA State Association of Boroughs Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 MATTHEW KNITTEL, DIRECTOR August.08.2018 2 Good Morning & Today’s Presentation Established in 2011. Non-partisan analysis.  Modeled after the Congressional Budget Office.  Separate from Executive and Legislative branches. Various mandatory duties.  General Fund revenue estimates.  Coordinate pension analysis Hits: 6
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12 Hits: 6
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE The Allegheny Conference on Community Development and The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May Hits: 6
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 Hits: 6
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg Hits: 6
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or adminis- trative actions proposed in the 2019-20 Executive Budget. The General Fund In June 2018, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official General Fund revenue estimate of $33.9 billion Hits: 6
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General 2018 due to the impact of higher federal debt on long-term interest rates. For example, the latest Budget and Economic Outlook (April 2018) from the Congressional Budget Office projects that the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note Hits: 6
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General the im- pact of higher federal debt on long-term interest rates. For example, the latest Congres- sional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook (April 2018) projects that the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note will increase from Hits: 6
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines two federal agencies.  Congressional Budget Office.  Annual budget projections.  Special studies on revenues or expenditures.  Joint Committee on Taxation.  “Scoring” of changes to tax policy Hits: 6
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Staff Acknowledgements The Independent Fiscal Office acknowledges the following staff for their work on this report: Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Ms. Maynard joined the IFO in March 2012. Primary responsibilities include leading various performance- based budgeting projects, coordinating the forecast Hits: 6
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2013-14 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $1.675 million for the office, which is the same as the appropriation for the current fiscal year. Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Hits: 6
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf Pennsylvania state tax credits every five years. 1 The IFO must submit all tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget (PBB) Board for approval and make the reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that of the program, and the computation was feasible given available data. If shown, all values are net of a balanced budget adjustment (i.e., net of the economic impacts that could be derived from the alternative use of state spending), as Hits: 5
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 5
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue made on a “current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or administrative actions proposed in the 2022-23 Executive Budget. The General Fund The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official FY 2021-22 General Fund revenue estimate of $41 Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2022. That time period covers ten complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific 22, 2020 and excludes statutory changes (+$331.2 million) enacted in November 2020 in conjunction with the 2020-21 state budget. Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 4 estimate, including SUT ($1,383 million), CNIT ($1,235 million) and PIT ($905 million). The Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2021. That time period covers nine complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific 22, 2020 and excludes statutory changes (+$331.2 million) enacted in November 2020 in conjunction with the 2020-21 state budget. Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 4 Rescue Plan in March of 2021 (roughly $25 billion for the Pennsylvania economy), actual revenues Hits: 5
RB-2015-04.pdf November 2015 1 Research Brief 2015‐4 November 2015 Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania The FY 2015‐16 Executive Budget includes a proposal that (1) increases the state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and (2) automatically adjusts be directly or potentially affected by the proposal. It then uses responsiveness or elasticity parameters from the U.S. Congressional Budget Of Ðice to determine the number of workers who may receive a higher wage and those who may lose employment Hits: 5
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a long-term economic and budget outlook for Pennsylvania, according to director Matthew Knittel. The report, entitled The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to Hits: 5
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf Presentation to PICPA December 3, 2014 Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania’s Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20 Provide Five-Year Projections For: • Pennsylvania Demographics • Pennsylvania Economics • General Fund Revenues • General Fund Expenditures Why Do We Do It? • Establish a neutral baseline to assess fiscal situation. • Identify long-term budget trends. • Alert policymakers to structural imbalances. 3.Dec.2014 The Economic and Budget Outlook 2 Demographic Outlook Age Distribution Life Hits: 5
Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 3/26/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (active, inactive 26/2015 12 Unfunded Accrued Liabilities Projected UAL by Fiscal Year Note: Dollar amounts in billions. Sources: SERS 2015 Supplemental Budget Information (March 2015) and PSERS Current Employer Contribution Rate and 30 Year Projections (December 2014) 3/26/2015 13 Employer Hits: 5
Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf How did they occur? What are the projected trends? Five‐year projections (current law) for pension expenditures in the PA budget. 4/11/2016 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 4/11/2016 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (excludes inactive Hits: 5
PICPA_Presentation.pdf Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 6.16D. Financials excludes Federal Reserve. Includes C and S corporations. Budget Update  Consensus: potential deficit of ~$2.5 - $3.0 billion for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18.  But, figures are now dated.  General Assembly / Governor have discretion over funding.  Executive Budget uses three methods to address.  Revenue proposals. Loans/enhancements. Efficiency gains.  Unclear what will be enacted.  Severance Hits: 5
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf Agency Highlights Department of Conservation & Natural Resources (DCNR) Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs (DDAP) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 9, 2023 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 5 Agencies (final cycle year, schedule must be updated) ▪ Dept. of Conservation & Natural Resources (DCNR) ▪ Dept. of Drug Hits: 5
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf PBB Overview and Agency Highlights PennDOT Human Services (Part 2) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 27, 2021 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 3 Agencies ▪ PennDOT \| Human Services (Part 2) ▪ Pennsylvania State Police \| Military and Veterans Affairs Alternative budget framework driven Hits: 5
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf PBB Overview and Recommendations DOC/PBPP JCJC PCCD Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 22, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 - PBB Duties IFO shall develop PBB plans for all agencies.  Statute develop quality outcome metrics. January 22, 2019 2 PBB Timeline in First Year Jan 2018 PBB review schedule set by Budget Office and IFO Mar to Jul general research, design data template, contact other states (NM, WA, MN), update to PBB Hits: 5
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf PBB Overview and Agency Highlights PEMA Dept of State Dept of Environmental Protection Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 22, 2020 Performance Based Budgeting (PBB) Alternative budget framework driven by performance metrics  Output \| efficiency \| outcomes \| benchmarks  Link funding levels to outcome metrics Hits: 5
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling debt service payments. The amount and timing of the transfers are determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget. Exemptions Major exemptions include: food (ready-to-eat food is not exempt), most footwear and clothing, textbooks, prescription and non- Hits: 5
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General payments. The amount and timing of the transfers are determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget. Exemptions Major exemptions include: food (ready-to-eat food is not exempt), most footwear and clothing, textbooks, prescription and non-prescription drugs Hits: 5
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General payments. The amount and timing of the transfers is determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget. Exemptions Major exemptions include: food (ready-to-eat food is not exempt), most footwear and clothing, textbooks, prescription and non-prescription drugs Hits: 5
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf vs. bi-partisan.  Primary duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. A Quick Tour 221 Delay Payments Ending Balance 81 275 2 Medicaid Expansion Note: figures in dollar millions. 1 Includes adjustments. Source: Executive Budgets, various years. Eliminate PlanCon October 19, 2017 4 General Fund Balance Sheet 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 Hits: 5
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf Budget and Economic Update Marcellus Shale Coalition March 31, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits  An FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP Hits: 5
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2022-23 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates \| Page 1 Hits: 5
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf 2020-21. The monthly estimates are based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on January 21, 2021, which includes adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in November 2020. The statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Welcome to the Annual Five- Funds Emily Maher is a senior policy specialist with the Fiscal Affairs Program at NCSL, where she specializes in state budgets, federal stimulus funds, state and local relations, and economic development topics. She is a staff liaison to NCSL’s Labor Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 13, 2014 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, will be available for Hits: 5
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf Budget and Economic Update CompetePA March 11, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and next, then deficits  A FY 19-20 + FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal Hits: 5
2004_srpvffinal.pdf participant contribution amounts, which would be within the previously specified contribution range, as part of its deliberations on the Commonwealth budgets. Discussion and Recommendations (Cont'd) -23- The Commission recommends That any legislation establishing a statewide retirement plan for volunteer firefighters of the SRPVF, if any, be satisfied by annual general fund appropriations equal to the sum of the approved administrative budget of the statewide administrative agency for the SRPVF and the total annual funding requirement of the SRPVF reduced by the Hits: 5
2002_dbdc_report.pdf Defined Benefit Defined Contribution -5- Administration Complex administration due to greater degree of regulation and actuarial calcu- lations. Long-term budget projections difficult due to variations in funding requirements. Simple administration, with complexity increasing as investment allocation flexi- bility increases. Long-term budget pro- jections are facilitated by predictable funding requirements. Benefit Accrual Back-loaded. Benefit accrual rate great- est in years immediately Hits: 5
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf or assumed to be provided on an automatic basis; The use of the amortization direct funding approach provides more easily budgeted funding requirements and a more defined, shorter funding period than the payout direct funding approach; and The Commonwealth has used of board. 17 * * * 18 (k) Certification of employer contributions.--The board shall, each 19 year in addition to the itemized budget required under section 8330 (relating 20 to appropriations by the Commonwealth), certify to the employers and the 21 Commonwealth the Hits: 5
Links Product • Business Outlook, Philadelphia Fed State Government • Department of Labor and Industry • Department of Revenue • General Assembly • Office of the Budget • Office of the Governor State Budget News • Pew Center for States • Rockefeller Institute of Government • Governing: States and Localities • Federation of Tax Administrators • National Conference of Hits: 5
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf actuary. Revenue projections were computed by the IFO using data from S&P Global and the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 released in November 2023. Other data sources are noted within this report federal and state special funds. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO's Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2023). Tax revenues for FY 2029-30 and beyond are assumed to grow at the same rate as Hits: 4
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Martin: This letter and attachments respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Santarsiero requested demographic data that shows net migration by county. The U very young children suggest that CDCC benefits may generate long-run earnings gains.” 3 ▪ A recent presentation by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) notes the following impact on low- income parents from expanded federal subsidies for childcare and universal preschool: “On Hits: 4
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Budget Roundtable Fiscal Year 2023-24 January 31, 2024 Overview and Notes Mid-Year Update presented Jan 30 • Revenue and economic few demographic, revenue and economic slides added to provide context IFO required to examine all revenue proposals in the Executive Budget Slide 2 Jan 2024 Roundtable Economy performs as expected • Through January, IFO estimate ~$130 million (0.5%) over actual $23 Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf through FY 2022-23. For this document, specific commentary is only included for estimates since FY 2015-16. For earlier budget cycles (2012-13 to 2014- 15), see prior year releases. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to 22, 2020 and excludes statutory changes (+$331.2 million) enacted in November 2020 in conjunction with the 2020-21 state budget. Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 4 Summary For three of the eleven fiscal years, the IFO official estimate has been within Hits: 4
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf be revisited and updated. To provide context for this update, Table 1 displays forecasts by the IFO and Governor’s Budget Office (GBO) for their official revenue estimates released last summer and updated by the IFO (January 2020) and GBO (February by Pennsylvania residents. Retirement (pensions, IRA disbursements) and transfer (Social Security) income are not shown because the analysis IFO Gov. Budget Office Official Mid-Year Change Official Budget Change General Fund $35,518 $35,738 $220 $35,497 $35,697 $200 Hits: 4
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf IFO based on data through September 2023. Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 region. The FY 2024-25 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes to increase the child care subsidy reimbursement rate to the 75 th percentile and maintain the CCW program, which Increase to Base Payment Rates for Child Care Providers Participating in Subsidized Care and the 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget. Appropriation 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 State - Child Care Services $162 $156 $156 Hits: 4
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf and short-term projection of the financial outlook for the state’s pension systems and potential implications for the state budget. Notable Legislation As part of its statutory duties, the IFO works with the state pension systems and contracted actuaries to of projected employer pension contributions to projected state revenues. Regular stress testing provides policymakers with useful information regarding the potential budget implications if investment returns diverge from assumed rates. State Pension Systems Table 1 (next page) displays recent and projected investment Hits: 4
QRE_FY14-15.pdf Revenue Estimates About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General 16, 2014; and 2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. The adjustments for statutory changes are summarized in the tables below. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found in the Hits: 4
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf pality must reimburse the Commission for the actual cost. - 23 - ACTUARIAL FUNDING REQUIREMENTS Funding Requirements. Every year a municipality must budget and contribute at least the full amount of its obligation to each of its retirement systems. These obligations include both Funding Requirements. (Cont’d) municipality no later than the last business day in Septem- ber, for use in the municipal budget process. The municipality must appropriate the minimum municipal obligation for each of its retirement systems in its budget for the Hits: 4
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf Revenue Comparison 2015‐16 2016‐17 IFO (May 2016) $31,022 $31,586 Growth Rate 1.4% 1.8% Executive Budget (Feb 2016)* $30,872 $31,772 Growth Rate 0.9% 2.9% Dollar Difference $150 ‐$186 Two‐Year Total ‐$36 Dollar amounts are in millions. FY 2016‐17 Executive Budget, General Fund Financial Statement, p. C1.5. Excludes proposed revenue changes. Impact of Demographics on the Long‐Term Economic and Hits: 4*
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf Revenues and Expenditures 2016 Pennsylvania Data User Conference May 12, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. 2 The Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 4
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf 31, 2023 Some Background and Today’s Presentation Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) established in 2011 ▪ Provides non-partisan analysis for budget and economic issues ▪ All 50 states have a legislative fiscal office \| all are part of legislature ▪ Only IFO is separate Statewide economic trends: labor market, inflation and demographics ▪ II. Industry trends and state comparisons: jobs, wages and taxes ▪ III. State budget: revenue proposals and key issues April 19, 2023 1 “Why the Recession is Always Six Months Away” April 19, 2023 Hits: 4
PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdf PA 17120 (717) 787-1349 Phone www.senatorbrowne.com John Guyer, Executive Director Tom Horan, Assistant Executive Director Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Secretary Jen Swails, Office of the Budget 10:05am - 10:10am 1.) Business of the Board (Election of Chair and Vice Chair) 2.) Recognition of Board Designees Hits: 4
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 4
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Marcellus Shale Coalition Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 31, 2022 1 Overview A sizable budget surplus this year ▪ Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Approximately $6 billion in federal relief supports current year budget ▪ Proposed for FY Hits: 4
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf Budget Hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Good morning/afternoon Chairmen and members the opportunity to testify before you today. To provide some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Hits: 4
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Deputy_Director.pdf IFO projects, (2) assists the director in staff supervision, (3) collaborates with the director to develop and track the office budget and finances, (4) communicates with individuals and groups outside of the IFO on relevant office work, and (5) presents IFO degree in economics, public finance, management or other area that emphasizes quantitative analysis • Has professional experience related to public sector budget processes or public financial management • Has a proven ability to assist in management of functions such as: o Interpretation and Hits: 4
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf Budget Hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office House Appropriations Committee February 11, 2019 Good morning Chairmen and members of the committee the opportunity to testify before you today. To provide some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to discuss recent economic and revenue trends. I would also like to make some brief comments Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Annual Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Report and both presentations will be posted to IFO website at conclusion. ▪ Questions will be addressed at end of please wait and we will attempt to re-establish. November 15, 2022 1 Guest Presentation – Phillip Swagel, CBO Director Federal Budget Outlook Phillip L. Swagel became the 10th Director of the Congressional Budget Office on June 3, 2019. Previously, he was Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK FY 2017-18 to FY 2022-23 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania NOVEMBER 2017 Welcome Matthew Knittel \| Director, Independent Fiscal Office Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson\| The PEW Charitable Trusts  Evaluation of State Economic Development Tax Incentives November 16, 2017 2 Budget Emphasis: Cost Containment State governments have used three methods.  Efficiency Initiatives - Lean, TQM, Continuous Improvement.  Cost-Benefit Analysis Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22 Welcome Matthew Hits: 4
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf more detail on Department of Humans Services (DHS) program expenditures listed on slides 14 and 15 in the Economic and Budget Outlook presentation. Page 33 of the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28 report released on November 15, 2022 provides additional detail on projected DHS Hits: 4
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf percent of the tax is borne by capital owners and 18 percent is borne by labor. 4  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assumes that 75 percent of the tax is borne by capital owners and 25 percent is borne by of Tax Analysis Working Paper Number 5 (May 2012). 5 “The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2013” Congressional Budget Office (June 2016). 6 “Modeling the Distribution of Taxes on Business Income,” Joint Committee on Taxation (October 2013). 7 “How Hits: 4
2020 PBB Agenda.pdf Performance‐Based Budget Board Hearings Wednesday, January 22, 2020 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 9:30 am Boyle, Deputy Director for 9‐1‐1, PEMA Paula Wilcox, Deputy Director for Administration, PEMA Dennis Edwards, Director, Bureau of Budget, PEMA Christine Williams, OSFC 10:15 am – 11:00 am Review of Department of State Plan Kathy Boockvar, Secretary, Department Hits: 4
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review:  Identify the purpose for but 40% of qualified spend leaves state.  HPTC: large, long-term positive spillover effects. Analyses must include state balanced budget.  Many studies ignore. Included in all IFO tax credit reviews. January 24, 2019 3 Background - Historic Preservation 32 states Hits: 3
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 1/24/2019 0 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review: ▪ Identify ratio, but 40% of qualified spend leaves state. ▪ HPTC: large, long-term positive spillover effects. Analyses must include state balanced budget. ▪ Many studies ignore. Included in all IFO tax credit reviews. January 24, 2019 3 Background - Historic Preservation 32 states have Hits: 3
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review:  Identify the purpose for but 40% of qualified spend leaves state.  HPTC: large, long-term positive spillover effects. Analyses must include state balanced budget.  Many studies ignore. Included in all IFO tax credit reviews. January 24, 2019 3 Background - Historic Preservation 32 states Hits: 3
Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf 17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter responds to a request for additional information raised by Senator Vulakovich at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Specifically, Senator Vulakovich inquired about the treatment of corporate net operating losses (NOLs of NOLs for each state are enclosed. (Please refer to Tables A and B). As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, our office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available Hits: 3
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf 17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter and the attached tables respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Hughes noted the recent increase in home mortgage refinances and requested information See Table 5 for an overview of the states offering each type of program. As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, the office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2017. That time period covers five complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific times during Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdf through FY 2023-24. For this document, specific commentary is only included for estimates since FY 2016-17. For earlier budget cycles (FY 2012-13 to FY 2015-16), see prior year releases. For each fiscal year, the document compares actual 2020 and excludes statutory changes (+$331.2 million) enacted in November 2020 in conjunction with the FY 2020-21 state budget. Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 3 The forecast error was primarily due to (1) higher than projected non-financial corporate domestic Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf 30.540 billion, $359 million above the estimate certified by the governor with the enactment of the FY 2014-15 budget and $1.932 billion (6.8 percent) above receipts in the prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. Relative to the revenue estimates contained in the Executive Budget released on March 3rd, these projections are $363 million higher for FY 2014-15 and $98 million higher for FY Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf estimated to be $28.544 billion, $572 million below the estimate certified with the enactment of the FY 2013-14 budget and $103 million (-0.4 percent) below receipts in the prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO’s does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. Relative to the revenue estimates contained in February’s Executive Budget, these projections are $572 million lower for FY 2013-14 and $870 million lower for FY 2014-15, a two- Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2020. That time period covers eight complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific times during Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through May 2018. That time period covers seven complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific times during Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through May 2018. That time period covers six complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific times during Hits: 3
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf following information:  Cost by major program of caring for seniors for FY 2017-18 actual and FY 2019-20 budgeted expenditures. You requested that federal funds and the Lottery Fund be itemized separately from all other state funds.  For the same years, actual and budgeted revenues attributable to seniors by major category of taxation.  The impact on the net migration of seniors if school Hits: 3
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf and may be used to offset the initial program reduction. 8 See the IFO’s Department of Transportation Performance-Based Budget Report. Figure 2 State Gas Tax Revenue and Consumption Source: DOR and various Governor's Executive Budget documents. Note: Years are fiscal year beginning. Revenue collections are Motor License Fund only. 2021 is preliminary. 5,176 5 Hits: 3
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf Information on certain tax credits and spending programs that was not available from either agency was sourced from the Executive Budget or estimates by the IFO. For recent years, estimates from these sources may simply reflect total credits awarded or the Capital Program payments ($101.0 million) decreased by $38.6 million from the prior fiscal year. The Office of the Budget awards these funds for the acquisition and construction of local economic, cultural, civic, recreational and historical improvement projects. In calendar Hits: 3
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf Pennsylvania Business Council June 22, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real State GDP 1.1% 0 1.60 to $2.60 per pack. New 40% tax (wholesalers) on other tobacco products. 22.Jun.2015 6 Executive Budget: Revenue Raisers 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 School Property Tax Relief $0 -$2,732 -$2 Hits: 3
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 1, 2019 Today’s IFO Presentation  Executive Summary \| Crucial Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax revenues very strong (much is permanent). Corporate net income Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf projections and outlook (3 slides)  Job creation and the PA labor force (3)  FY 2019-20: a difficult budget year ahead (5) All material from IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2018). November 19, 2018 2 PA Population Snapshots November 19, 2018 3 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Request_May_4_2021.pdf Main Capitol Building 512E Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 The Honorable Jen Swails Secretary of the Budget 238 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board: Enclosed please find a regional breakdown of the Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) and a county breakdown of the Resource Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf PBB Overview and Agency Highlights Department of Labor & Industry PA Historical and Museum Commission Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2022 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 4 Agencies ▪ Dept. of Labor & Industry (DLI) \| PA Historical & Museum Commission (PHMC) ▪ PA Dept. of Aging (PDA) \| Dept Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf PBB Overview and Agency Highlights Pennsylvania State Police Department of Military & Veterans Affairs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 28, 2021 Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) April 28, 2021 1 PSP Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2019-20 and roads (FY 2019-20) ▪ Fewer help desk tickets submitted for radio issues: P25, 307 vs. OpenSky, 4,461 ▪ Key budget measure: Annual maintenance cost savings Forensics Services case backlogs decline significantly from 2016 to 2020 ▪ 16 staff were added in Hits: 3
PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdf PA 17120 (717) 787-1349 Phone www.senatorbrowne.com John Guyer, Executive Director Tom Horan, Assistant Executive Director Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Secretary Jen Swails, Office of the Budget 10:05am - 10:10am 1.) Business of the Board (Election of Chair and Vice Chair) 2.) Recognition of Board Designees Hits: 3
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE sponsored by the PA Economy League MAY 19, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15 Hits: 3
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf STATE LEGISLATURES 10 Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts, 2021, using U.S. Department of Treasury and National Association of State Budget Officer’s data. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES State CSFRF Allocations 11 AK Legislative AZ MT WV HI VT NH and Sewer; Economic Impact KS MA NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES Avoiding the Fiscal Cliff ○ Managing one-time expenditures • Distinguishing budgets and projects • Non-recurring vs. recurring • Coordinating with municipalities and schools to manage funds ○ Long-term fiscal planning • Multi-year Hits: 3
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General 22, 2021 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. The statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found in the next section. FY Hits: 3
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General which includes adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the state budget. The statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found in the next section. FY Hits: 3
jackson ppt.pdf related sectors, especially professional services, also involved. • Hotels, restaurants, retail, short-term housing also get a boost. • State and local budget crunch (reduced revenues, more need for many services, can’t put it on a credit card) adding to job losses services, health-care services continue to provide jobs growth. • Public-sector employment levels off at state and local level as budget improves. • Federal level more at risk due to expected budget cuts. • Slow population growth limits job growth longer term, especially Hits: 3
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast May.2017 2016-17 2017-18 IFO (May 2017) $31,815 $32,447 Growth Rate 3.0% 2.0% Executive Budget (Feb 2017) 1 $32,302 $32,619 Growth Rate 4.5% 1.0% Dollar Difference -$487 -$172 Two-Year Total Hits: 3
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf Tax Update Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials November 16, 2021 Two Parts Overview of IFO Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Will workers return? ▪ Does inflation decelerate? ▪ Do budget surpluses last? Property Tax Update ▪ No look at COVID-19 impact on SD collections yet ▪ Some data suggest decline not Hits: 3
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf 1 Inflation’s Impact on the Pennsylvania Economy, Budget and Pensions House Majority Policy Committee Hearing on Inflation June 8, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Good morning latest five-year outlook report (November 2021). That amount is for illustrative purposes only and will change based on current budget negotiations. However, a few points can be noted: • Wage costs (and related taxes) will total roughly $3.0 billion for Hits: 3
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter responds to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Grove requested an estimated breakdown of the IFO reviewed wage contracts by Research Brief and will be released as a stand-alone report later this spring. As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, the office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available Hits: 3
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Annual Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Report and presentation will be posted to IFO website at conclusion. ▪ Questions will be addressed at end of presentation Includes Fall Update spending adjustments of -$450 million for FY 23-24. General Fund Financial Statement November 15, 2023 12 Budget IFO Five-Year Outlook 23-24 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 Current Year Hits: 3
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report in Novem- ber. However, due to the partial-year budget, the IFO has postponed release of that document to a future date. This October update may be used in its place as Hits: 3
DOC_Performance_Measures_Final.pdf Appropriations Committees: In September 2016, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a report entitled “Using Performance Measures in the State Budget.” In that report, the office described the systems and processes that certain states use to implement performance-based budgeting. The report also included a basic “prototype report” that compiled data from the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections (DOC) and other Hits: 3
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 3
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf is about $112 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor for the current fiscal year. The recent Executive Budget did not change the certified number.) The IFO’s reduction was based on two factors: • At the mid-point in economic growth and tax revenues in 2013, such as the expiration of the federal payroll tax cut and the federal budget sequester, should be fully absorbed at this point. However, recent wage growth and consumer spending does not appear to be Hits: 3
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf Autism Spectrum Disorder population. As mentioned, this reduces the available space for regular education areas greatly. The District’s budget for the 2023-2024 school year is $225,512,780.00, which has drastically increased over the last several years to 74%. Part III. 9: Our costs should be much higher, but we were unable to staff all of our budgeted positions throughout the 21-22 school year due to staffing shortages. Wayne Highlands SD It is difficult to judge the effectiveness Hits: 3
Announcement_2021.pdf economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. The presentation will examine various issues that impact the economic and budget outlook: (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 The Independent Fiscal Office presents ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Guest Presenter Emily Maher, NCSL: Navigating the Waters: How States are Spending Fiscal Recovery Funds Hits: 3
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2:00 p.m. Location: 14 th Floor Conference Center, Harrisburg University estimate for FY 2016-17. The office also will release an updated report on Pennsylvania’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, originally released on December 9 th , details the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Hits: 3
2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 Date and Time: Wednesday, December 9, 2015; 2:00 p.m. Location AARP Pennsylvania Presentation on retirement insecurity and the challenges facing Baby Boomers as they retire. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-8293 or contact@ifo.state Hits: 3
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf from expiration of the payroll tax cut causes an approxi- mate 1 percent contraction of the Pennsylvania economy. Short-Term Budget Impact Full-year impact on disposable income 5,031 Share of tax cut spent 50% Dollar amount of tax cut and other miscellaneous items. 3. Latest data available for 2009. Social Security Administration, Table 4.B10, 2009. 4. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that GDP would rise (over a 5-year period) by $1.30 to $1.90 per dollar of Hits: 3
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf and Repair About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General the tax. Table 5 Average Annual Maintenance Costs Total Maintenance Cost per Hour Typical Annual Hours Annual Maintenance Budget Piston Single Engine $80 200 $16,000 Large Piston Single Engine 162 200 32,400 Light Twin Engine Piston 201 200 40 Hits: 2
Supplemental_Table.pdf Revenue Estimate Comparison Detail IFO Mid-Year Executive Budget IFO less Exec Budget 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 Total General Fund $34,780 $33,914 $34 Hits: 2
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf Analyze fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  Office does not make policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014 2 Independent Fiscal Office Scope and assumptions Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf 4) consumer stress due to past inflation now embedded in current prices. Recently, both Federal Reserve Chair Powell and Congressional Budget Office Director Swagel opined that the federal government was on an “unsustainable” fiscal trajectory due to structural deficits and rapidly a “current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or administrative actions proposed in the Governor’s 2024-25 Executive Budget. General Fund The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official FY 2023-24 General Fund revenue estimate (“official estimate”) of Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf economic activity simply will offset one- time, or non-recurring, revenues received in the current year.” Relative to the Executive Budget presented in March, these projections are $374 million higher for FY 2014-15 and $97 million higher for FY 2015- 16, for a two-year difference of $471 million. These amounts exclude the proposed statutory changes identified in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Hits: 2
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf 4) consumer stress due to past inflation now embedded in current prices. Recently, both Federal Reserve Chair Powell and Congressional Budget Office Director Swagel opined that the federal government was on an “unsustainable” fiscal trajectory due to structural deficits and rapidly current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or adminis- trative actions proposed in the Governor’s 2024-25 Executive Budget. General Fund The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official FY 2023-24 General Fund revenue estimate (“official estimate”) of Hits: 2
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf results of our analysis as background for Committee members in preparation for the Department of Human Services House Appropriations Committee budget hearing scheduled on March 4, 2020. To the extent that a more comprehensive analysis is needed, we will transmit any additional information within four weeks of the conclusion of the Fiscal Year 2020-21 budget hearings. If this schedule changes, we will contact your office. Child Welfare Program Funding in Pennsylvania For state fiscal year Hits: 2
RB_2024_07_CNIT.pdf tax (CNIT) rate from 9.99% in tax year 2022 to 4.99% by tax year 2031. The new state budget further reduces corporate tax liability by raising the net operating loss (NOL) deduction threshold. Net operating losses are unused tax Regarding the tax incidence (i.e., the entities that ultimately pay the tax) of the provisions, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation both assume that 75% of the corporate income tax is borne by shareholders and Hits: 2
RB_2024_07_Budget_Update.pdf estimates were based on tax law effective at that time and the spending policies embedded in the FY 23-24 budget. Those amounts can now be updated based on the FY 24-25 enacted budget, recent tax law changes and the latest revenue estimates. For the same three fiscal years, the updated deficits are -$892 Hits: 2
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf due to those two factors. 4 For the lender (i.e., the federal government), the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the repayment pause cost is $5 billion per month and $195 billion total due to foregone interest payments state-level data are not available. Sources include: “Student Loan Pause Could Cost $275 Billion”, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (November 2022); “Is High Student Loan Debt Always a Problem?” Looney and Yannelis, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (July Hits: 2
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf Information on certain tax credits and spending programs that was not available from either agency was sourced from the Executive Budget or estimates by the IFO. For recent years, estimates from these sources may reflect total credits awarded or the program Capital Program payments ($139.6 million) decreased by $33.2 million from the prior fiscal year. The Office of the Budget awards these funds for the acquisition and construction of local economic, cultural, civic, recreational and historical improvement projects. In CY Hits: 2
Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 Date and Time: Thursday, November 13, 2014; 1:30 p.m. Location outlook for Pennsylvania: (1) the composition of job creation; and (2) trends in household formation. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-8293 or contact@ifo.state Hits: 2
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. March 8, 2018 Revenue Estimate Comparison IFO –Mid Year Executive Budget IFO less E.B. 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 Total General Fund $34 5.0% 5.5% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note: Percentages refer to the share of state GDP. Source: Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, IFO (November 2017). March 8, 2018 Pension Update Act 5 Impacts on Hits: 2
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf February 27, 2018 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office CompetePA Retreat Economy, Revenues and Budget Pennsylvania economic growth rates or change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% strong (+$90 million), inheritance collections above estimate (+$30 million)  Significant revenue uncertainty for remainder of fiscal year Longer-term budget outlook remains challenging under current law  FY 2017-18: modest surplus if $200 million Joint Underwriter's Association transfer Hits: 2
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf Budget and Economic Update Presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office June in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Summary Increase to IFO Official Estimate of +$866 million  Translate to Executive Budget Official Estimate: +$790 million FY 19-20 tax revenue growth rate of 3.5%  Somewhat weaker than wage growth Hits: 2
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf Cost per Prescription $20.85 $29.15 +11.8% 1 Dollar amounts in millions and state funds only. Source: Executive Budget, various years. May 24, 2017 21 Long-Term Living and HCBS 2013-14 Actual 2016-17 Available Avg. Ann. Growth Term Living total spending includes $113 million intergovernmental transfer. Source: April 2017 Department of Human Services monthly report and Executive Budget, various years. May 24, 2017 22 Long-Term Imbalance Funding Sources for Senior Programs Avg. Ann. Growth General Fund 3 Hits: 2
PBB_TaxCredits_Schedule_2022_Update.pdf Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule Year Performance-Based Budgets 1 Corrections Board of Probation and Parole PA Commission on Crime & Delinquency Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission Banking and Securities General Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf 2022 Performance-Based Budget Board Hearing for the Dept. of Education Motion to Amend and Resubmit At this time, pursuant to Section 7(c 48 of 2017, I am making a motion to direct the IFO to amend and resubmit the 2022 performance-based budget review for the Department of Education by May 16, 2022 with the following recommendations: 1. Include citations for PDE data Hits: 2
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx Bone Marrow Donation Mobile Telecom Broadband Research and Development Keystone Innovation Zones DCED PBB Highlights Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 23, 2020 2/27/2020 0 Tax Credit Reviews - Overview Tax credit reviews have four objectives ▪ Identify the compliance monitoring January 23, 2020 18 PBB Highlights Dept of Health Dept of Human Services Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 23, 2020 2/27/2020 19 Department of Health (DOH) January 23, 2020 20 DOH Actual Spend and Hits: 2
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf 2018.4 2019.4 2020.4 2021.4 2022.4 COVID EIP 1 EIP 2+3 Refundable CTC $ billions Executive Budget - Major Policy Initiatives March 13, 2023 11 Area or Policy Description (estimates from Executive Budget) Basic Education Increase $567m (+7.8%) Special Education Increase $104m (+8.4%) State Police Funding Phase-out Motor License Funds Hits: 2
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdf debt service payments. The amount and timing of the transfers are determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget. For FY 2023-24, this transfer totaled $187 million. Exemptions Major exemptions include: food (ready-to-eat food is not 204.0 million in FY 2024-25. 11 11 The transfer amount is from the 2024-25 Governor’s Executive Budget. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Revenue $1,789 $1,931 $1,944 $2,007 $1,968 $2 Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf to the “resurgence of the U.S. chemi- cal manufacturing sector” and general economic development. (Full Article) -April 2018 - Congressional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028 The CBO updated its deficit projections from the previous release in June 2017 to Hits: 2
MRU_2020_11.pdf the month ($90.4 million, 80.3 percent). The strength was the result of a $100 million transfer from the Budget Stabilization Fund (other miscellaneous) which was not included in the official estimate. FYTD non-tax revenues exceed estimate by $97 release an updated estimate and monthly distributions consistent with the passage of the remaining portion of the FY 2020-21 budget in January 2021. Monthly Revenue Update November 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections Fiscal Year Collections Hits: 2
MRU-2020-09.pdf due primarily to cigarette tax revenues ($39.7 million, 16.2 percent). Due to the passage of a partial-year budget, the IFO will delay the release of its regular five-year economic and budget outlook in mid-November. In its place, the office will release an updated economic and revenue forecast for FY 2020- Hits: 2
MQRE_FY24-25_08_2024.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 20, 2024, adjusted to reflect tax law changes enacted with the FY 2024-25 state budget. The adjustments are summarized in Table 1. A comparison of the IFO’s General Fund revenue estimate to the official include the impact from statutory changes (Acts 54, 55, 56 and 85 of 2024) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues. The Hits: 2
MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdf 20, 2023 adjusted to reflect (1) a liquor store profits transfer consistent with assumptions reflected in the FY 2023-24 budget and (2) excludes the $115.3 million cigarette tax transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund which was included in the Note: Figures indollar millions. Reflects (1)anadjustment totheliquor store profits transfer consistent with assumptions reflected in the FY 2023-24 budget and (2) excludes the $115.3 million cigarette tax transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund. FY 2023-24 Monthly and Hits: 2
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf 2023) adjusted to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in December 2023. The statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Table 2 (next page) displays monthly estimates by revenue the impact from statutory changes (Acts 33 and 34 of 2023) enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow Hits: 2
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General the impact from statutory changes (Acts 13, 15, 16, 20 and 65) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted Gen- eral Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do Hits: 2
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General not include the impact from statutory changes (Acts 39 and 42) enacted in conjunc- tion with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provi- sions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do Hits: 2
May_1_Revenue_Update.pdf 150 million, to $45.4 billion. That figure largely corresponds to the revised figure carried in the Governor’s Executive Budget. For next fiscal year, the early weakness in CNIT and PIT bears monitoring, as well as non-motor SUT growth have any questions regarding this letter, please contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office cc: Uri Monson, Budget Secretary Patrick Browne, Revenue Secretary CreationDate: 2024-05-01 13:52:45 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024- Hits: 2
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf will be constrained by non-recurring revenues received in FY 2016-17 and various technical factors.” Relative to the Executive Budget presented in February, these projections are $487 million lower for FY 2016-17 and $172 million lower for FY 2017- 18, for a two-year difference of -$658 million. These amounts exclude the proposed statutory changes identified in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate, which includes a discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s Hits: 2
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf 535 23.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2017 and 2025 are estimates from the IFO Economic and Budget Outlook (Nov. 2017). Jan.25.2018 4 Independent Fiscal Office Multiple Factors Drive PA Aging 0 20,000 40,000 3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for 2017 are preliminary. real GDP growth Future Challenges for State Budget Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Ratio: Working Age / Age 65+ 3.9 3 Hits: 2
IFO_PASBO_Oct_2024.pdf 500 school districts. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Data for FY 23-24 are preliminary estimates based on General Fund budget data submitted by districts to PDE. Impact of COVID Money on School District Spending GG 18-19 19-20 20- 500 school districts. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Data for FY 23-24 are preliminary estimates based on General Fund budget data submitted by districts to PDE. Closing Comments Recent acceleration in PA schools’ personnel costs. Long-term? Schools appear to Hits: 2
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office \| November 2019 1 Welcome Katherine Loughead continue to increase Moderate growth of personnel cost drivers after FY 19-20  Personnel costs are 13% of state budget (excludes PSERS) State economy operates at long-term potential \| No recession  Real GDP +1.8% \| Wages-Salaries +3.9% Hits: 2
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage October 24, 2022 1 Act 48 Tax Credit Reviews Statute: Did the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent? ▪ Submit reviews to Performance-Based Budget Board ▪ Annual legislative hearing \| Administrating agency included ▪ Reports available on the IFO website Key Points ▪ Goals and purposes must be Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 21, 2021 Today’s Presentation Four Parts 501 -2,600 -2,488 -2,330 -1,961 Note: Millions of dollars. Prior year lapses include transfers to the Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund. Summary Top 2020 economic terms: “unprecedented” and “unchartered waters”  But both are true \| we have not Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf points lower than the employer contribution rate used to estimate the state share of PSERS employer contributions in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, which was issued by the Independent Fiscal Office on November 16, 2017 computation remain unchanged. The following table displays an update to Table 5.6, which was originally published in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23 on November 16, 2017 (see page 49). The table shows total state Hits: 2
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28 Pennsylvania Date and Time RSVP Here Agenda Guest Presenter Tuesday, November 15 years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Phillip Swagel, Director CBO Federal Budget and Economic Update Following his presentation, Director Swagel will address questions that have been submitted. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo Hits: 2
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf 8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue Hits: 2
Releases by the IFO on June 20, 2024 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2024-25 state budget. Full Report 2022 Property Tax Burden by County August 21, 2024 \| Property Tax This research brief uses (1) income data September 6, 2024 to address a technical correction. Full Report Older Newer Release Type • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other Archives Year: All 2024 2023 2022 2021 Hits: 2
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf Katharine Witgert Program Manager National Academy for State Health Policy Annual Presentation The Economic and Budget Outlook Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2012 Health Care Reform: What it Means for States 1 • 25 Hits: 1
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf Annual Tax Credit Reviews Mixed-Use Development Brewers’ Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Educational Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2022 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 4 Statute: Did the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent? ▪ Mixed- Hits: 1
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf Annual Tax Credit Reviews Manufacturing PA Resource Manufacturing Rural Jobs and Investment Waterfront Development Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 10, 2023 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 5 Statute: Did the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent? ▪ Manufacturing Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Hits: 1
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf Fiscal Office About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Hits: 1
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf October 2012 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Hits: 1
SR2017-03.pdf generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 .See “Effective Federal Tax Rates, 1979 to 1997” (Congressional Budget Office, October 2001) and “Tax Foundation State-Local Tax Burden Estimates: An Overview of Methodology” (Tax Foundation, Working Paper 10 Hits: 1
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf 1,532 -2,291 -3,015 -2,995 -3,121 Note: Millions of dollars. Prior year lapses include transfers to Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund. Current balance is $4.99 billion. CreationDate: 2023-01-24 13:28:01 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf result from analysis of recent revenue collections and technical factors related to the timing of receipts. Relative to the Executive Budget published in early March, the latest projections are $363 million higher for FY14-15 and $98 million higher for FY15- Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf games of chance tax revenues and new information on the timing of potential casino licensing decisions. Relative to the Executive Budget published in February, these projections are $572 million lower for FY13-14 and $870 million lower for FY14-15, a Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf 3.7 14.9 13.5 9.5 Net Payroll Jobs 1.4% -13.5% 4.3% 7.3% Congressional Budget Office 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.3% -6.0% 4.4% n.a. Wages-Salaries 4.6% -6 Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf WSJ May 19)? May 20, 2019 19 Summary Increase to IFO Official Estimate of +$866 million  Translate to Executive Budget Official Estimate: +$790 million FY 19-20 tax revenue growth rate of 3.5%  Somewhat weaker than wage growth Hits: 1
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf Driver: Consumer Spending  Consumers must drive economic growth. o Comprise 70% of economic activity. o Federal, state and local budgets are constrained. o Weak overseas demand.  Sales and Use Tax collections have been very weak. o July to December Hits: 1
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf IFO (June 21, 2019 and updated to reflect statutory changes that were enacted with the fiscal year 2019-20 state budget). They should be viewed as approximations only. The estimates do not incorporate effective dates or a compliance phase-in. In Hits: 1
Response-Letter-05-13-2019.pdf and driven out similar to the Act 1 subsidies. FY 2017-18 are actuals consistent with the Governor's Executive Budget, later years are estimated by the IFO. 8 Includes all school district property taxes (residential, commercial, etc.). All years estimated Hits: 1
RB_2024_10_Act_1.pdf and the estimated average reduction per recipient. The homestead/farmstead counts are based on FY 2023-24 final General Fund budgets submitted to PDE by school districts in October 2023. For FY 2024-25, the data show that the top three Hits: 1
RB_2024_06_Revenues_Spending.pdf 2.00 (FY 23-24) billion and prior year lapses. Sources: FY 18-19 from 2020-21 Governor's Executive Budget. FY 23-24 estimated by the IFO. CreationDate: 2024-06-26 01:48:14 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 Hits: 1
RB_2024_05_Treasury.pdf the computation of the effective rate for that year. Amounts also exclude interest that accrues on the balance of the Budget Stabilization Fund.) The data illustrate that the higher earnings are due to two factors: (1) unprecedented General Fund balances and Hits: 1
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf g., health insurance, Social Security). As ARPA (and other) funds are depleted, child care centers will need to adjust their budgets to maintain the higher wages for current staff and to attract new staff. Specifically, child care centers will need to Hits: 1
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf May 1, 2022. The administration could extend the moratorium prior to expiration, but extension entails significant federal costs. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the moratorium costs the federal government $4.3 billion each month, or $52 billion each year. 2 Hits: 1
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release demographic projections that will be incorporated into its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results from those projections that estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident Hits: 1
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf includes this section in response to a specific request from a member of the General Assembly during the March 2021 budget hearings. 8 In reality, the out-of-state spending is likely larger because it would include travel, internet sales and Hits: 1
RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdf need to remain at a hospital, which can create a backlog of individuals waiting for post-acute care placement. The Budget Adjustment Factor (BAF) is a key metric that can be used to assess the potential cost implications of industry contraction Hits: 1
RB-2017-5.pdf FY 2010-11 to FY 2015-16. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, California Legislative Analyst's Office, Indiana Department of Revenue, Louisiana Department of Revenue, Illinois Department of Revenue Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q4.pdf 20 million for the fiscal year. News reports indicated that some counties may have withheld funds during the budget impasse. If this occurred, the reported results understate the strength in this category. Table 2 General Fund Year-Over-Year Growth Rates Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q2.pdf 242 million, suggesting that collections attributable to the shorter holding period were close to $400 million. • The enacted budget package anticipated a transfer of $95 million from the Oil and Gas Lease Fund to the General Fund. The transfer did not Hits: 1
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf if actuarial note required prior to further consideration ▪ Property tax: forecasts and analysis depending on requests/data available ▪ Performance Based Budgets (PBB) and Tax Credit reviews ▪ Natural Gas: quarterly production reports, annual impact fee collections January 19, 2022 1 Latest Pennsylvania Hits: 1
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf Deputy Director January 19, 2017 1/19/2017 1 Background and Overview Independent Fiscal Office started September 2011.  Provide budget projections: November, May/June and January.  Special reports at request of General Assembly. First: Provide some context on property Hits: 1
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf CPI 49% SUT 54% Note: PIT is adjusted for tax rate increase in 2004. Long Term Challenges ahead for PA Budget o Moderate economic growth. o Lagging tax collections. o Increased demand for healthcare. o Pension contributions. Can States Escape Demographic Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf PBB Addendums Updated Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Review Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board September 28, 2021 PBB Addendum Requests Pennsylvania Department of Transportation ▪ Activity 12 – Administration: Human Resources measures related to career Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf PBB Agency Highlights Pennsylvania Department of Education Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board March 9, 2022 Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) March 9, 2022 1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020- Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf PBB Agency Highlights Pennsylvania Department of Education Department of Agriculture Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 26, 2022 Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) January 26, 2022 1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020- Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf PBB Agency Highlights PA Department of Aging Department of Human Services Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 25, 2022 PA Department of Aging (PDA) January 25, 2022 1 PDA Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020- Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf PBB Agency Highlights Department of Revenue (DOR) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 10, 2023 Department of Revenue (DOR) January 10, 2023 1 DOR Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 21-22 Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf Tax Credit Reviews Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 26, 2021 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 3 Theme: improving the lives of PA residents ▪ NAP – incentivizes investment Hits: 1
PBB-Board-Hearings-Schedule-2019.pdf Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Wednesday, January 23, 2019 Thursday, January 24, 2019 10:00 A.M. - 12:00 Hits: 1
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf CY 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Hits: 1
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf Revenue Update PACP Chamber Day 2021 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office June 17, 2021 Three Issues Dominate Economic and Budget Outlook What happens when federal support expires? ▪ Nearly $160 billion of federal monies injected into state ▪ What happens to income Hits: 1
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf 3.7 14.9 13.5 9.5 Net Payroll Jobs 1.4% -13.5% 4.3% 7.3% Congressional Budget Office 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.3% -6.0% 4.4% n.a. Wages-Salaries 4.6% -6 Hits: 1
Newsstand_February_2020.pdf operators, and fruit and Christmas tree farms. Income Tax Breaks for Seniors Estimated at $1.5 Billion The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released a report that discusses tax breaks targeted to seniors. Pennsylvania is one of three states (Illinois Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf for 2016 For most states, income tax revenues came in far below projections for FY 2016-17, leading to large budget defi- cits. New federal income tax data provide insights regarding those unexpected shortfalls. Compared to the prior year, the federal Hits: 1
NAP-2018-03.pdf EZP contributions, where it is unclear whether the investment would occur regardless, albeit possibly in another Pennsylvania location. When determining budget priorities, policymakers must weigh the tradeoff between alternative spending programs. Funds directed to one program may enhance/incentivize out- of- Hits: 1
MTR-2017-11.pdf reflect the impact of recently enacted legislation. 2 The legislation was enacted as part of the FY 2017-18 state budget. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Nov-17 $2,306 $2,159 $147 Growth 16.0% Hits: 1
MTR-2017-08.pdf ranked 18th in the nation. In addition to significant personal costs, the crisis also has implications for state and local budgets and economies. The opioid overdose death rate (rate per 100,000 in population) has increased dramatically. (See table.) In 2015 Hits: 1
MTR-2017-05.pdf the latest three months, collections have increased by only 0.8 percent. Sales tax revenues are critical to the state budget because each percentage point of growth generates roughly $100 million of new revenues. Weak sales tax revenues are not limited Hits: 1
MRU_2024_07.pdf the current fiscal year, as a portion of the General Fund surplus is used to balance the FY 2024-25 budget and the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates. Monthly Revenue Update July 2024 FY 2024-25 Revenue Performance Through Hits: 1
MRU-2021-06.pdf the elimination of certain one-time special funds transfers ($59.5 million) in the enactment of the FY 2021-22 budget. Non-tax revenues for the fiscal year essentially met estimate at $1.21 billion. Monthly Revenue Update June 2021 FY Hits: 1
MRU-2020-12.pdf release an updated estimate and monthly distributions consistent with the passage of the remaining portion of the FY 2020-21 budget in January 2021. Monthly Revenue Update December 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections Fiscal Year Collections Hits: 1
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25 Hits: 1
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf traded companies, and larger privately owned companies. Why Cutting Corporate Income Taxes Won’t Help State Economies  Short-term budget constraints mean spending must be cut to pay for it.  Benefits of tax cut accrue to shareholders, wherever they Hits: 1
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf Economic Impact To project the economic impact of the event, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) used hotel occupation reports, event budgets from the Ironman Group and HVAB, and Placer.ai reports that detail the number of individuals on-site on the Hits: 1
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdf burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 2. Prices are from Natural Gas Intelligence and are converted to Hits: 1
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 2. Prices are from Bentek Energy and are converted to dollars Hits: 1
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 2. Prices are from Bentek Energy and are converted to dollars Hits: 1
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 3. Prices are from Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 3. Prices are from Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 4. Prices are from Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 3. Prices are from Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 5. The price used for this calculation is a weighted average Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf most recent RGGI model had assumed a nominal price of $3.57 for 2022. At that price and an effective budget of 57.9 million allowances, annual gross proceeds would total $207 million. • At the current price of $13.50, annual Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf accommodation/travel sectors. The IFO will release a more comprehensive analysis of the proposed higher minimum wage from the Executive Budget in late March or early April. That report will also include an analysis of the combined reporting and personal income Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf forecast released by the IFO (January 31, 2022) and long-term projections contained within the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 (November 2021). As with the prior analysis, the estimates should be viewed Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Revenue_Analyst.pdf political affiliation. Position Summary A Revenue Analyst I is responsible for the analysis, monitoring and tracking of assigned revenue and budget area(s). Analysts will (1) provide support (if assigned) for special reports and projects undertaken by the office, (2) general Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Fiscal_Analyst.pdf their duties.” Position Summary A Fiscal Analyst I is responsible for the analysis, monitoring and tracking of assigned revenue and budget area(s). Analysts will (1) provide support (if assigned) for special reports and projects undertaken by the office, (2) general Hits: 1
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf Revenue Impact For the purpose of estimating the potential revenue impact from combined reporting proposed in last year’s Executive Budget, the IFO surveyed reports, fiscal notes and other documents from states that enacted combined reporting in the past decade. Overall Hits: 1
House_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter and the attached table respond to a request for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office. Representative Bullock requested data on job loss and recovery by race. The U.S Hits: 1
Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf 5% 0.9% 3.5% --- Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic and Budget Outlook, IFO (Nov. 2019), Zillow, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. CreationDate: 2019-12-02 19:52:52 Creator Hits: 1
Economic_Summit_Presentation_Sept_2023.pdf deficit. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, RedFin, FHFA, Monthly Treasury Statement, Congressional Budget Office. CreationDate: 2023-09-13 13:17:42 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2023-09-14 13 Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2023.pdf ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 Pennsylvania Date and Time RSVP Here Agenda Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021 Hits: 1
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2023-24 to 2028-29. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue Hits: 1
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf Why the increase? 1. Greater investment in risky assets 2. Plans much larger now relative to economy and state-local budgets than 10-20 years ago •Details are in the appendix 13 * 30-year closed-period level percentage of pay, 7 Hits: 1
April_1_Revenue_Update.pdf have any questions regarding this letter, please contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office cc: Uri Monson, Budget Secretary Patrick Browne, Revenue Secretary CreationDate: 2024-04-01 18:34:38 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024- Hits: 1
2024_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf Agreements with missing figures will be populated when the contract summaries and data are received from the Office of Administration. Budget Impact of Collective Bargaining Agreements CreationDate: 2024-05-20 19:31:04 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024- Hits: 1
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf Factors Pose Greatest Risk November Election Uncertainty harms economic growth Business investment may enter holding pattern until outcome known Federal Budget Powell: Fiscal policy is unsustainable (Oct 2023) $509 billion deficit 1 st quarter of FFY 2024 Dec 2025: expiration of Hits: 1
2019-Pub-2.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office presents Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Date and Time Economic and Budget Outlook Location Agenda Guest Presenters Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 1:30 pm Harrisburg University of Science and Technology Conference Hits: 1
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf n.a. 0.1% 0.6% Tax Foundation -$1,783 69.5% 0.5% 3.4% Note: Figures exclude the budget impact from eliminating the ACA individual mandate. JCT estimates that provision reduces outlays by $297 billion and reduces debt by Hits: 1
2001_hr266.pdf in terms of the avoidance of unfunded liabilities 13 currently paid off at the taxpayer's expense, more precise 14 budgeting, fixed employer costs, a risk shift to the member, 15 improved recruiting tools and a potential loosening of political 16 Hits: 1
Pensions Form • Results Bill # Subject Printer # Sponsor Synopsis HR 28 Summary • Early Retirement Benefits • Studies 0268 Merski Would direct the Legislative Budget and Finance Committee to conduct a study on the viability of an early retirement proposal for both SERS and PSERS Hits: 1