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Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.

Tags: budget, economic, outlook

Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

Tags: budget, economic, outlook, revenue

PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ Tax Credit Report Presentation

The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based Budget Board.

Tags: based, budget, credit, performance, tax

Department of Military and Veterans Affairs

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs.

Tags: budgeting, performance

Department of Human Services - Part 2

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 2).

Tags: budgeting, performance

Department of Transportation

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Transportation.

Tags: budgeting, performance

Pennsylvania State Police

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania State Police.

Tags: budgeting, performance

Economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update for the PACP Chamber Day.

Tags: budget, economic, presentation

PBB Overview Presentation for PSP and DMVA

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania State Police and the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs is posted on the website.

Tags: budgeting, performance

PBB Overview Presentation for PennDOT and DHS (Part 2)

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Transportation and the Department of Human Services (Part 2).

Tags: budgeting, performance

Senate Budget Hearing Request

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment based on gender, net domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states.

Tags: budget, hearing

Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

Tags: budget, economic, employment, gas, presentation

House Budget Hearing Request

The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question was related to the indirect costs associated with state marijuana legalization that may not be reflected in official revenue estimates.

Tags: budget, hearing

Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

Tags: budget, economic, presentation

Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its scheduled budget hearings. This packet examines the minimum wage, personal and corporate income tax and other proposals included in the FY 2021-22 Executive Budget.

Tags: budget, hearing

Economic and Budget Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

Tags: budget, demographic, economic, estimates, presentation, property

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

Tags: budget, economic, outlook

Senate Budget Hearing Request

The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Tags: budget, hearing

House Budget Hearing Request

The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee.

Tags: budget, hearing

Economic Outlook and Property Tax Update

Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook and School District Property Tax Forecast.

11/16/2021

Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.

11/15/2021

2021 Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27.

11/15/2021

Economic and budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

11/04/2021

PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ Tax Credit Report Presentation

The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based budget Board.

09/28/2021

Department of Military and Veterans Affairs

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs.

09/24/2021

Department of Human Services - Part 2

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 2).

09/24/2021

Department of Transportation

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Transportation.

09/24/2021

Pennsylvania State Police

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania State Police.

09/24/2021

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past nine budget cycles.

09/16/2021

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget.

08/31/2021

2021 Demographics Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27.

06/15/2021

Performance-Based budget Board Hearing Request

The IFO responded to a question raised during the Performance-Based budget Board hearing on April 26, 2021 by providing Neighborhood Assistance Program and the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit awards by region or county.

05/04/2021

PBB Overview Presentation for PSP and DMVA

IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania State Police and the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs is posted on the website.

04/28/2021

PBB Overview Presentation for PennDOT and DHS (Part 2)

IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Transportation and the Department of Human Services (Part 2).

04/27/2021

School Property Tax, Senior Spending and Tax Revenues

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups.

04/23/2021

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2021-22 Executive budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget."

04/22/2021

Senate budget Hearing Request

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment based on gender, net domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states.

04/09/2021

budget and Economic Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

03/31/2021

House budget Hearing Request

The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question was related to the indirect costs associated with state marijuana legalization that may not be reflected in official revenue estimates.

03/23/2021

budget and Economic Update Presentation

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

03/11/2021

budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its scheduled budget hearings. This packet examines the minimum wage, personal and corporate income tax and other proposals included in the FY 2021-22 Executive budget.

03/04/2021

Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020.

02/23/2021

Economic and budget Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/19/2021

Five Year Economic and budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

01/21/2021

January 2021 Economic and budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

01/11/2021

Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook.

09/08/2020

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eight budget cycles.

09/03/2020

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget.

08/27/2020

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget.”

04/23/2020

Senate budget Hearing Request

The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee.

03/11/2020

House budget Hearing Request

The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee.

03/11/2020

Economic and budget Update Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/28/2020

budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings. Testimony

02/14/2020

OBMD, MTBI, R&D, and KIZ Tax Credit Reviews and PBB Overview for DCED, DOH and DHS

IFO presentation of Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, Research and Development and Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Reviews and Performance-Based budget highlights for the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Health and Department of Human Services.  

01/22/2020

PBB Overview Presentation for PEMA, DOS and DEP

IFO presentation of Performance-Based budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency, Department of State and Department of Environmental Protection.

01/22/2020

Performance-Based budget Board Hearings Agenda- Year 2

The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings.

01/21/2020

Department of Human Services - Part 1

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-Based budget Board.

01/21/2020

Department of Community and Economic Development

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Community and Economic Development.

01/21/2020

Department of Health

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Health.

01/20/2020

Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency.

01/16/2020

Department of State

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State.

01/16/2020

Department of Environmental Protection

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Environmental Protection.

01/16/2020

FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND budget OUTLOOK

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.

11/14/2019

Five Year Economic and budget Outlook

Announcement: The IFO will present its Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The Tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on Pennsylvania's tax and business climate.

11/06/2019

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 

08/28/2019

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget.

08/08/2019

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past seven budget cycles.

07/26/2019

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/18/2019

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/20/2019

budget and Economic Update

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants regarding an update on Pennsylvania's budget and economic landscape.  

06/11/2019

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/22/2019

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/22/2019

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget."  

03/22/2019

IFO News Stand - March Edition

The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

03/19/2019

Special Fund Receipts and Disbursements and Ambulatory Surgical Center Assessment

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked for an update to a February 12, 2018 report on the receipts and disbursements of certain special funds and information on how Pennsylvania compares to other states with regard to the use of special funds. Another committee member asked about the proposed ambulatory surgical center assessment for the Department of Human Services (DHS).

03/13/2019

Economic & budget Outlook Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

03/01/2019

budget Hearings Packet For Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings. Testimony

02/11/2019

Performance-Based budget Board Hearings Agenda- Revised

The IFO has posted a revised agenda for the upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings.

01/22/2019

Performance-Based budget Reviews

Click on the hyperlink above to access the five performance-based budget reviews and presentations.

01/18/2019

Performance-Based budget Board Hearings Agenda

The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings.

01/16/2019

Performance-Based budget Board Hearings Schedule

The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings.

12/14/2018

IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION

The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

12/11/2018

IFO News Stand - November Edition

The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

11/20/2018

PA Fiscal Update and Outlook

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania that reviews highlights from the IFO's recent Economic and budget Outlook.

11/19/2018

FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND budget OUTLOOK

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.  

11/15/2018

IFO News Stand - October Edition

The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

10/17/2018

Performance-Based budgeting Update

On October 15, Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Performance-Based budget Board which provided an update regarding Act 48 implementation.

10/16/2018

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

08/20/2018

MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY REVENUE ESTIMATES

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget.

07/30/2018

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past six budget cycles.

07/25/2018

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/24/2018

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/19/2018

budget and Economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

06/12/2018

budget And Economic Update with Property Tax Discussion

Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO). Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman also discussed an updated school district property tax forecast and recent proposed legislation. 

06/05/2018

budget and Economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the Allegheny Conference on Community Development and the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia. 

06/04/2018

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/16/2018

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/20/2018

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget.” 

04/18/2018

Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder - a Multi-Jurisdiction Comparison

The Independent Fiscal Office responded to a question raised at the office's recent budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked how Pennsylvania compares to other states regarding the share of owner-occupied households in which the homeowner is age 60 or over. The response includes multi-jurisdiction comparisons for householders who are age 60 or over, age 65 or over and age 75 or over. 

03/12/2018

budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20.  The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table

02/16/2018

SPECIAL FUND RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS

In response to a legislative request, the IFO compiled certain data presented in the Governor’s Executive budget for various years to produce a multi-year history of receipts and disbursements for selected special funds. The letter identifies certain special fund budgeting and reporting issues that should be considered when analyzing the data. The letter also provides computations for a potential budget increase factor based on the annual increases in population and the consumer price index. 

02/15/2018

Performance-Based budget and Tax Credit Review Schedule

The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budgets and tax credit reviews.

01/30/2018

Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release

01/29/2018

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past five budget cycles.

12/22/2017

Updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget.

12/21/2017

Pennsylvania Fiscal Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) to provide background on the IFO and an update on Pennsylvania’s short- and long-term budget outlook. 

12/13/2017

Five Year Economic and budget Outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share

11/16/2017

Pennsylvania Fiscal Outlook Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel addressed the Society of Municipal Analysts to provide an update on Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook, demographics and current budget status. 

10/19/2017

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget.

08/10/2017

budget and Economic Update

Director Matt Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA). 

06/07/2017

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget.”  Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017)

04/05/2017

Senate budget Hearing Requests

The IFO provided additional information to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee in response to requests made at its recent budget hearing. 

03/10/2017

House budget Hearing Requests

The IFO provided additional information to members of the House Appropriations Committee in response to requests made at its recent budget hearing. 

03/10/2017

Economic Forecast Summit Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Fifth Annual Economic Forecast Summit sponsored by the Pennsylvania Chamber Educational Foundation and the Pennsylvania Bankers Association. 

02/28/2017

Department of Corrections Performance Measures

At the request of the General Assembly, the IFO has published a performance measurement report for the Department of Corrections (DOC) in advance of the agency’s budget hearings. The report includes agency cost-drivers, performance metrics and multi-state comparisons. The DOC report arises from the IFO’s 2016 report, “Using Performance Measures in the State budget,” in which the office outlined options for performance measurement and provided a prototype report that could be integrated into the state budget process and utilized during annual budget hearings.

02/27/2017

budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees

The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21.  The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas.    Download a version for optimized web viewing

02/16/2017

Pennsylvania Gaming Trends

This research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16.

02/13/2017

Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

02/10/2017

Five Year Economic and budget Outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk

11/15/2016

Using Performance Measures in the State budget

Discusses performance-based budgeting and how it could be integrated into Pennsylvania's budget process. Highlights how other states are effectively using performance measures in their budget systems. Includes a prototype report which could be used in agency budget hearings and provides a method for quick integration.

09/19/2016

Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget

08/24/2016

Revenue Estimate Performance

Examination of the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past four budget cycles (August 2016).

08/12/2016

The Commonwealth’s budget Outlook: FY 2016‐17 and Beyond

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Greater Pittsburgh Nonprofit Partnership regarding the Commonwealth's budget outlook for FY 2016-17 and beyond.  

06/08/2016

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the budget.” 

04/21/2016

The Implications of an Aging Populace for the State budget

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the budgetary implications of an aging populace at a conference sponsored by the Pennsylvania budget and Policy Center.

03/03/2016

budget and Economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic and revenue update to the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce. 

01/29/2016

Five-Year Economic and budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (Updated January 2016) Presentation

01/27/2016

Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding proposed changes to personal income and sales tax

Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding changes to the personal income and sales taxes proposed in the Executive budget.  The information was presented at a public hearing conducted by the Senate Finance Committee (June 2015).

06/10/2015

Independent Fiscal Office

Independent Fiscal Office IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Independent Fiscal Office Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Natural Gas Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review News Stand & Other Featured Releases November 2021 Revenue Update November 16, 2021 Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook and School District Property Tax Forecast. ... (Full Report) Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook Revenue Estimates November 15, 2021

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

The Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2012-13 to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report posted to pensions.  Guest speaker: Ms. Katharine Witgert (NASHP).  Revenue Outlook  Where will growth come from? The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 2 15.Nov.2012 Some Questions  What implications do broad demographic trends have for revenues and expenditures

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

DRAFT About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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IFO ppt.pdf

January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Background • Public Act 120 of 2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year outlook

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2019-2020 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.293 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

Advances in Public Policy Modeling The Penn Wharton Budget Model Kent Smetters \ November, 15 2018 Overview Penn Wharton Budget Model 2 1) Use cutting-edge economic modeling, data science and cloud computing to provide policymakers and support staff with

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

January 2012 The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-2017 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Forward Act 120 of 2010 establishes the Independent Fiscal 2010 Census. Historical revenue and expenditure data are from the Commonwealth’s Consolidated Annual Financial Report, the Governor’s Executive Budget and various departmental reports. Other data sources are noted in the relevant sections of this report. The Independent Fiscal Office

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2020-2021 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.34 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released in February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

employers. The cost projections for the REHP are prepared jointly by the Office of Administration and the Office of the Budget, and with the assistance and review of an actuarial consulting firm (Buck Consultants). The Office of Administration’s Employee Benefits ROONEY, WALKO AND HALUSKA, MARCH 21, 2005 AS AMENDED, HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, SEPTEMBER 27, 2005 A RESOLUTION Directing the Legislative Budget and Finance Committee PUBLIC <— 1 EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION to study the feasibility of 2 providing State premium assistance to surviving

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

programs and total debt levels in other states. Program Overview RACP is a grant program administered by the Governor’s Budget Office (GBO). It provides funding for the acquisition and construction of local economic, cultural, civic, recreational and historical improvement projects statute. Key program guidelines are as follows: 1  All grant awards must be included in at least one Capital Budget Project Itemization Act and have remaining project allocation amounts.  Programs must meet the statutory definition(s) of an eligible

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2020 Popula- tion Estimates by

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

July 1, 1996, any reference in this part to the limitation under IRC § 401(a)(17) shall mean the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 (OBRA '93) (Public Law 103-66, 107 Stat. 312) annual compensation limit set forth in this 38 July 1, 2048 0.40 July 1, 2049 0.42 § 8330. Appropriations by the Commonwealth. (a) Annual submission of budget.--The board shall prepare and through the Governor submit annually to the General Assembly an itemized budget consisting of the

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

Overview of Act 48 Implementation October 15, 2018 Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board Act 48 Overview  Act 48 of 2017 directs the IFO to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for each agency under the Governor’s jurisdiction and conduct tax credit reviews every fifth year  The

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

Chairmen and Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2021-2022 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.34 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office (August 2019) or IHS Markit (October 2019). Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabu- lations from the 2018 Population

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling & Development Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released in February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

Congressional Budget Office Presentation for the Independent Fiscal Office, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2018 Jeffrey Kling Associate Director for Economic Analysis Transparency at CBO For more information, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update on Transparency at CBO (August 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/54372. 1 CBO  Enhance the credibility

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RB-2016-02.pdf

or programs, for short) into three categories: (1) tax incentives, (2) General Fund and special fund expenditures and (3) off‐budget expenditures. The dollar amounts reported for each incentive represent the amount available or distributed for economic development in the applicable Ðinanced current or prior economic development spending are not included in the tables, but are itemized separately in the off‐ budget expenditures discussion. For programs Ðinanced through debt service, the amounts reported represent the actual awards or distributions in the applicable

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2017-2018 Governor’s Executive Budget proposed an appropriation of $2.076 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2017-2018 Governor’s Executive Budget proposed an appropriation of $2.076 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity to submit materials in advance of the budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The 2018-2019 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.226 million for the office, the same amount appropriated for the current year. In addition

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About IFO

The office Mission Statement is as follows: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General working paper series. Brenda Warburton Deputy Director Prior to joining the IFO, Ms. Warburton held several positions related to state budgeting and tax policy and administration in the commonwealth, including executive deputy secretary for the Office of the Budget, research director

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

Marks, Deputy Auditor General for Audits, PA Department of the Auditor General. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75Testimony of Charles B. Zogby, Secretary of the Budget, Commonwealth of PA.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82Testimony of James B. Allen, Secretary, PA Municipal Retirement System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT’D) Page as of 12/31/11, PSERS as of 6/30/11. The Keystone Pension Report, Governor’s Office of the Budget, 1 November 2012, p. 7. Independent Fiscal Office, The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, November

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perez ppt.pdf

State Budget Update Arturo Pérez NCSL Fiscal Affairs Program Director Overview – State fiscal conditions continue to improve, but at a very slow pace. – Revenue performance is solid – Expenditures are stable – Budget gaps are few in FY 2012 Overview (continued) – States face ongoing budget challenges. – State tax collections remain below pre-recession

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 19, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

remarks, I would like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent economic indicators provide different perspectives on the state and national economies. Some national indicators suggest 200 million, and the revised amount is $50 million higher than the corresponding amount in the FY 2016‐17 Executive Budget. Three factors motivate the upward revision to revenues:  Very strong growth in PIT estimated payments. Through the first seven

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General April 17, 2018 This document provides an analysis of the tax proposals included in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released in February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) pub- lishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General 2019 This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released in February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce February 12, 2015 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office Budget and Economic Update What Is the Independent Fiscal Office? • Our role in the budget process. • Other products and publications. Tax Revenues and Budget Deficits. • Tax revenues through January 2015. • Revisions to FY 2014-15

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the The Commonwealth’s Budget Outlook: FY 2016‐17 and Beyond Greater Pittsburgh Nonprofit Partnership June 8, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General businesses reopen and ramp up operations. Table 1.2 displays the U.S. economic forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and IHS Markit. 3 For 2020, the forecasts project that U.S. real GDP will decline by 6.0 and

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

IFO) at this informational hearing. The IFO was created by Act 120 of 2010 to provide revenue projections and other budget and economic analysis to the General Assembly and the public. The office currently has 10 staff, including myself. I was recent weakness in sales tax, and we will monitor that tax source as we prepare to release our five-year budget projections in November. Related to revenues, the state economy is performing as expected. Through July, the labor market produced 62

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

012,592 Tobacco Settlement 672,493 Solid Waste-Resource Recovery Dev. 0 ---------------------- Total 9,573,148 Source: Governor's Executive Budget 2019-20, pp. H1 - H98. Note: dollar amounts in thousands. Special fund disbursements for the current fiscal year (listed as the "available" year in the financial statement) include a budgeted amount for the current fiscal year plus unspent funds from prior fiscal years. This practice helps ensure that current commitments

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Labor Statistics. Economic Outlook | Page 3 Table 1.2 displays the U.S. economic forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and IHS Markit. 3 For 2020, the forecasts project that U.S. real GDP will decline by 6.0 and

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Non-partisan fiscal and budgetary analysis.  Began operations in September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Office does not make policy recommendations. Primary duties:  Revenue projections: May 1 and June 15.  Analyze impact of state employee wage contracts.  Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 7/14/2017 2 Today’s Presentation PA’s long-term structural

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf

blank. - General Findings and Recommendations | Page 3 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 29, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

NFIB) December 13, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Who we are. ◦ Established September 2011; 10 staff, but expanding. ◦ Like the Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Supply non-partisan analysis. • No governing board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at request of General Assembly.  Office makes NO policy

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2018 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018-19 to 2023-24, is available for download on the

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter responds to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Dunbar asked about the number of states that currently use incremental budgeting. According to a report issued by The National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) in August of 2015, incremental budgeting

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General its findings to the General Assembly no later than July 1, 2020.” The act also requires the Legislative Budget and Finance Committee (LBFC) to “evaluate the environmental impact and impact on residents” for the same types of regulations. The IFO submits

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22, will be available for

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 9, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21, will be available for

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 19, 2021 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation: Three

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

of eight. Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2014-15 Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $1.675 million for the office, which is the same as the amount appropriated for the departure of a staff member. Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

cash flow costs/ (savings) as of June 30, 2018, assuming end of year payment, at 3.6% (a proxy for budget growth) and 7.25/7.5% (the investment return used in PSERS’/SERS’ cost notes). The 3.6% proxy for budget growth is based on the average annual growth in projected General Fund revenue from FY 2017-18 to 2021-22

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal made on a “current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or administrative actions proposed in the 2021-22 Executive Budget. The General Fund The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official FY 2020-21 General Fund revenue estimate of $35

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

How did they occur? What are the projected trends? Five-year projections (current law) for pension expenditures in the PA budget. 7/15/2015 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 7/15/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (active, inactive

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal made on a “current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or administrative actions proposed in the 2021-22 Executive Budget. The General Fund The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official FY 2020-21 General Fund revenue estimate of $35

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IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s five-year economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25, is available for download on the

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2013 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Independent Fiscal Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19, provides data and analysis

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 28, 2020 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues:  Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?)  Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews  Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

that may result from compliance with the bill, and that, following certification of such losses by the Secretary of the Budget, the Commonwealth shall reimburse the retirement systems for these losses. The provisions of the bill would expire upon the occurrence previously called for a study of the divestment issue. House Resolution Number 263, adopted May 7, 2003, directed the Legislative Budget & Finance Committee (LB&FC) to study the “global security risk” attendant to pension fund investments in companies with business activities

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter and the attached tables respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Schwank asked about job loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic by states in the education sector and the impact of immigration on the state economy. Page 9 of the IFO’s budget hearings packet contains total net domestic migration trends by state from the U.S. Census Bureau from 2011 through 2019

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

Kar About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or adminis- trative actions proposed in the 2019-20 Executive Budget . The General Fund In June 2018, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official General Fund revenue estimate of $33.9 billion

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 16, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, is available for download on the

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Long-Term Fiscal Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 10, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook INITIAL REVENUE ESTIMATE FISCAL YEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May 1, 2018 000 NOLs-Other 151 IFO Revised Official 34,745 9.7% Administration Official (Nov 17) 34,704 9.6% Executive Budget (Feb 18) 34,752 9.7% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Review of FY 2017-18 Estimates May.01.2018

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS & THE PA ECONOMY PA State Association of Boroughs Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 MATTHEW KNITTEL, DIRECTOR August.08.2018 2 Good Morning & Today’s Presentation Established in 2011. Non-partisan analysis.  Modeled after the Congressional Budget Office.  Separate from Executive and Legislative branches. Various mandatory duties.  General Fund revenue estimates.  Coordinate pension analysis

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE The Allegheny Conference on Community Development and The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General current law” basis and exclude any statutory changes or adminis- trative actions proposed in the 2019-20 Executive Budget. The General Fund In June 2018, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official General Fund revenue estimate of $33.9 billion

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General 2018 due to the impact of higher federal debt on long-term interest rates. For example, the latest Budget and Economic Outlook (April 2018) from the Congressional Budget Office projects that the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General the im- pact of higher federal debt on long-term interest rates. For example, the latest Congres- sional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook (April 2018) projects that the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note will increase from

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines two federal agencies.  Congressional Budget Office.  Annual budget projections.  Special studies on revenues or expenditures.  Joint Committee on Taxation.  “Scoring” of changes to tax policy

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Staff Acknowledgements The Independent Fiscal Office acknowledges the following staff for their work on this report: Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Ms. Maynard joined the IFO in March 2012. Primary responsibilities include leading various performance- based budgeting projects, coordinating the forecast

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2013-14 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $1.675 million for the office, which is the same as the appropriation for the current fiscal year. Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General

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Releases

News Stand & Other Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook and School District Property Tax Forecast. Tags: demographic , outlook , property , revenue Full Report Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook November 15, 2021 | Revenue Estimates The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2021. That time period covers nine complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific 22, 2020 and excludes statutory changes (+$331.2 million) enacted in November 2020 in conjunction with the 2020-21 state budget. Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 4 Rescue Plan in March of 2021 (roughly $25 billion for the Pennsylvania economy), actual revenues

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RB-2015-04.pdf

November 2015 1 Research Brief 2015‐4 November 2015 Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania The FY 2015‐16 Executive Budget includes a proposal that (1) increases the state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and (2) automatically adjusts be directly or potentially affected by the proposal. It then uses responsiveness or elasticity parameters from the U.S. Congressional Budget Of Ðice to determine the number of workers who may receive a higher wage and those who may lose employment

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a long-term economic and budget outlook for Pennsylvania, according to director Matthew Knittel. The report, entitled The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

Presentation to PICPA December 3, 2014 Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania’s Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20 Provide Five-Year Projections For: • Pennsylvania Demographics • Pennsylvania Economics • General Fund Revenues • General Fund Expenditures Why Do We Do It? • Establish a neutral baseline to assess fiscal situation. • Identify long-term budget trends. • Alert policymakers to structural imbalances. 3.Dec.2014 The Economic and Budget Outlook 2 Demographic Outlook Age Distribution Life

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 3/26/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (active, inactive 26/2015 12 Unfunded Accrued Liabilities Projected UAL by Fiscal Year Note: Dollar amounts in billions. Sources: SERS 2015 Supplemental Budget Information (March 2015) and PSERS Current Employer Contribution Rate and 30 Year Projections (December 2014) 3/26/2015 13 Employer

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

How did they occur? What are the projected trends? Five‐year projections (current law) for pension expenditures in the PA budget. 4/11/2016 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 4/11/2016 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (excludes inactive

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 6.16D. Financials excludes Federal Reserve. Includes C and S corporations. Budget Update  Consensus: potential deficit of ~$2.5 - $3.0 billion for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18.  But, figures are now dated.  General Assembly / Governor have discretion over funding.  Executive Budget uses three methods to address.  Revenue proposals. Loans/enhancements. Efficiency gains.  Unclear what will be enacted.  Severance

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf

PBB Overview and Agency Highlights PennDOT Human Services (Part 2) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 27, 2021 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 3 Agencies ▪ PennDOT | Human Services (Part 2) ▪ Pennsylvania State Police | Military and Veterans Affairs Alternative budget framework driven

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PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf

PBB Overview and Recommendations DOC/PBPP JCJC PCCD Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 22, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 - PBB Duties IFO shall develop PBB plans for all agencies.  Statute develop quality outcome metrics. January 22, 2019 2 PBB Timeline in First Year Jan 2018 PBB review schedule set by Budget Office and IFO Mar to Jul general research, design data template, contact other states (NM, WA, MN), update to PBB

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

PBB Overview and Agency Highlights PEMA Dept of State Dept of Environmental Protection Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 22, 2020 Performance Based Budgeting (PBB) Alternative budget framework driven by performance metrics  Output | efficiency | outcomes | benchmarks  Link funding levels to outcome metrics

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling debt service payments. The amount and timing of the transfers are determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget. Exemptions Major exemptions include: food (ready-to-eat food is not exempt), most footwear and clothing, textbooks, prescription and non-

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General payments. The amount and timing of the transfers are determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget. Exemptions Major exemptions include: food (ready-to-eat food is not exempt), most footwear and clothing, textbooks, prescription and non-prescription drugs

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General payments. The amount and timing of the transfers is determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget. Exemptions Major exemptions include: food (ready-to-eat food is not exempt), most footwear and clothing, textbooks, prescription and non-prescription drugs

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

vs. bi-partisan.  Primary duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. A Quick Tour 221 Delay Payments Ending Balance 81 275 2 Medicaid Expansion Note: figures in dollar millions. 1 Includes adjustments. Source: Executive Budgets, various years. Eliminate PlanCon October 19, 2017 4 General Fund Balance Sheet 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

Budget and Economic Update Marcellus Shale Coalition March 31, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits  An FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

2020-21. The monthly estimates are based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on January 21, 2021, which includes adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in November 2020. The statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Welcome to the Annual Five- Funds Emily Maher is a senior policy specialist with the Fiscal Affairs Program at NCSL, where she specializes in state budgets, federal stimulus funds, state and local relations, and economic development topics. She is a staff liaison to NCSL’s Labor

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Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 13, 2014 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, will be available for

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

Budget and Economic Update CompetePA March 11, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and next, then deficits  A FY 19-20 + FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

participant contribution amounts, which would be within the previously specified contribution range, as part of its deliberations on the Commonwealth budgets. Discussion and Recommendations (Cont'd) -23- The Commission recommends That any legislation establishing a statewide retirement plan for volunteer firefighters of the SRPVF, if any, be satisfied by annual general fund appropriations equal to the sum of the approved administrative budget of the statewide administrative agency for the SRPVF and the total annual funding requirement of the SRPVF reduced by the

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

Defined Benefit Defined Contribution -5- Administration Complex administration due to greater degree of regulation and actuarial calcu- lations. Long-term budget projections difficult due to variations in funding requirements. Simple administration, with complexity increasing as investment allocation flexi- bility increases. Long-term budget pro- jections are facilitated by predictable funding requirements. Benefit Accrual Back-loaded. Benefit accrual rate great- est in years immediately

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

or assumed to be provided on an automatic basis; The use of the amortization direct funding approach provides more easily budgeted funding requirements and a more defined, shorter funding period than the payout direct funding approach; and The Commonwealth has used of board. 17 * * * 18 (k) Certification of employer contributions.--The board shall, each 19 year in addition to the itemized budget required under section 8330 (relating 20 to appropriations by the Commonwealth), certify to the employers and the 21 Commonwealth the

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Links

Product • Business Outlook, Philadelphia Fed State Government • Department of Labor and Industry • Department of Revenue • General Assembly • Office of the Budget • Office of the Governor State Budget News • Pew Center for States • Rockefeller Institute of Government • Governing: States and Localities • Federation of Tax Administrators • National Conference of

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

be revisited and updated. To provide context for this update, Table 1 displays forecasts by the IFO and Governor’s Budget Office (GBO) for their official revenue estimates released last summer and updated by the IFO (January 2020) and GBO (February by Pennsylvania residents. Retirement (pensions, IRA disbursements) and transfer (Social Security) income are not shown because the analysis IFO Gov. Budget Office Official Mid-Year Change Official Budget Change General Fund $35,518 $35,738 $220 $35,497 $35,697 $200

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

and short-term projection of the financial outlook for the state’s pension systems and potential implications for the state budget. Notable Legislation As part of its statutory duties, the IFO works with the state pension systems and contracted actuaries to of projected employer pension contributions to projected state revenues. Regular stress testing provides policymakers with useful information regarding the potential budget implications if investment returns diverge from assumed rates. State Pension Systems Table 1 (next page) displays recent and projected investment

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

Revenue Estimates About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General 16, 2014; and 2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. The adjustments for statutory changes are summarized in the tables below. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found in the

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

pality must reimburse the Commission for the actual cost. - 23 - ACTUARIAL FUNDING REQUIREMENTS Funding Requirements. Every year a municipality must budget and contribute at least the full amount of its obligation to each of its retirement systems. These obligations include both Funding Requirements. (Cont’d) municipality no later than the last business day in Septem- ber, for use in the municipal budget process. The municipality must appropriate the minimum municipal obligation for each of its retirement systems in its budget for the

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

Revenue Comparison 2015‐16 2016‐17 IFO (May 2016) $31,022 $31,586 Growth Rate 1.4% 1.8% Executive Budget (Feb 2016)* $30,872 $31,772 Growth Rate 0.9% 2.9% Dollar Difference $150 ‐$186 Two‐Year Total ‐$36 Dollar amounts are in millions. *FY 2016‐17 Executive Budget, General Fund Financial Statement, p. C1.5. Excludes proposed revenue changes. Impact of Demographics on the Long‐Term Economic and

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Revenues and Expenditures 2016 Pennsylvania Data User Conference May 12, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. 2 The Independent Fiscal Office

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PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdf

PA 17120 (717) 787-1349 Phone www.senatorbrowne.com John Guyer, Executive Director Tom Horan, Assistant Executive Director Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Secretary Jen Swails, Office of the Budget 10:05am - 10:10am 1.) Business of the Board (Election of Chair and Vice Chair) 2.) Recognition of Board Designees

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

Budget Hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Good morning/afternoon Chairmen and members the opportunity to testify before you today. To provide some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

Budget Hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office House Appropriations Committee February 11, 2019 Good morning Chairmen and members of the committee the opportunity to testify before you today. To provide some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to discuss recent economic and revenue trends. I would also like to make some brief comments

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK FY 2017-18 to FY 2022-23 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania NOVEMBER 2017 Welcome Matthew Knittel | Director, Independent Fiscal Office Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson| The PEW Charitable Trusts  Evaluation of State Economic Development Tax Incentives November 16, 2017 2 Budget Emphasis: Cost Containment State governments have used three methods.  Efficiency Initiatives - Lean, TQM, Continuous Improvement.  Cost-Benefit Analysis

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22 Welcome Matthew

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

percent of the tax is borne by capital owners and 18 percent is borne by labor. 4  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assumes that 75 percent of the tax is borne by capital owners and 25 percent is borne by of Tax Analysis Working Paper Number 5 (May 2012). 5 “The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2013” Congressional Budget Office (June 2016). 6 “Modeling the Distribution of Taxes on Business Income,” Joint Committee on Taxation (October 2013). 7 “How

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2020 PBB Agenda.pdf

Performance‐Based Budget Board Hearings Wednesday, January 22, 2020 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 9:30 am Boyle, Deputy Director for 9‐1‐1, PEMA Paula Wilcox, Deputy Director for Administration, PEMA Dennis Edwards, Director, Bureau of Budget, PEMA Christine Williams, OSFC 10:15 am – 11:00 am Review of Department of State Plan Kathy Boockvar, Secretary, Department

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx

Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 1/24/2019 0 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review: ▪ Identify ratio, but 40% of qualified spend leaves state. ▪ HPTC: large, long-term positive spillover effects. Analyses must include state balanced budget. ▪ Many studies ignore. Included in all IFO tax credit reviews. January 24, 2019 3 Background - Historic Preservation 32 states have

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf

Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review:  Identify the purpose for but 40% of qualified spend leaves state.  HPTC: large, long-term positive spillover effects. Analyses must include state balanced budget.  Many studies ignore. Included in all IFO tax credit reviews. January 24, 2019 3 Background - Historic Preservation 32 states

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Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf

17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter responds to a request for additional information raised by Senator Vulakovich at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Specifically, Senator Vulakovich inquired about the treatment of corporate net operating losses (NOLs of NOLs for each state are enclosed. (Please refer to Tables A and B). As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, our office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter and the attached tables respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Hughes noted the recent increase in home mortgage refinances and requested information See Table 5 for an overview of the states offering each type of program. As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, the office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2017. That time period covers five complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific times during

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

30.540 billion, $359 million above the estimate certified by the governor with the enactment of the FY 2014-15 budget and $1.932 billion (6.8 percent) above receipts in the prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. Relative to the revenue estimates contained in the Executive Budget released on March 3rd, these projections are $363 million higher for FY 2014-15 and $98 million higher for FY

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

estimated to be $28.544 billion, $572 million below the estimate certified with the enactment of the FY 2013-14 budget and $103 million (-0.4 percent) below receipts in the prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO’s does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. Relative to the revenue estimates contained in February’s Executive Budget, these projections are $572 million lower for FY 2013-14 and $870 million lower for FY 2014-15, a two-

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2020. That time period covers eight complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific times during

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through May 2018. That time period covers seven complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific times during

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through May 2018. That time period covers six complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific times during

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

following information:  Cost by major program of caring for seniors for FY 2017-18 actual and FY 2019-20 budgeted expenditures. You requested that federal funds and the Lottery Fund be itemized separately from all other state funds.  For the same years, actual and budgeted revenues attributable to seniors by major category of taxation.  The impact on the net migration of seniors if school

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RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

Information on certain tax credits and spending programs that was not available from either agency was sourced from the Executive Budget or estimates by the IFO. For recent years, estimates from these sources may simply reflect total credits awarded or the Capital Program payments ($101.0 million) decreased by $38.6 million from the prior fiscal year. The Office of the Budget awards these funds for the acquisition and construction of local economic, cultural, civic, recreational and historical improvement projects. In calendar

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

Pennsylvania Business Council June 22, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real State GDP 1.1% 0 1.60 to $2.60 per pack. New 40% tax (wholesalers) on other tobacco products. 22.Jun.2015 6 Executive Budget: Revenue Raisers 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 School Property Tax Relief $0 -$2,732 -$2

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 1, 2019 Today’s IFO Presentation  Executive Summary | Crucial Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax revenues very strong (much is permanent). Corporate net income

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

projections and outlook (3 slides)  Job creation and the PA labor force (3)  FY 2019-20: a difficult budget year ahead (5) All material from IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2018). November 19, 2018 2 PA Population Snapshots November 19, 2018 3 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Request_May_4_2021.pdf

Main Capitol Building 512E Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 The Honorable Jen Swails Secretary of the Budget 238 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board: Enclosed please find a regional breakdown of the Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) and a county breakdown of the Resource

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf

PBB Overview and Agency Highlights Pennsylvania State Police Department of Military & Veterans Affairs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 28, 2021 Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) April 28, 2021 1 PSP Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2019-20 and roads (FY 2019-20) ▪ Fewer help desk tickets submitted for radio issues: P25, 307 vs. OpenSky, 4,461 ▪ Key budget measure: Annual maintenance cost savings Forensics Services case backlogs decline significantly from 2016 to 2020 ▪ 16 staff were added in

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdf

PA 17120 (717) 787-1349 Phone www.senatorbrowne.com John Guyer, Executive Director Tom Horan, Assistant Executive Director Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Hearing Room 1, North Office Building 401 North Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Secretary Jen Swails, Office of the Budget 10:05am - 10:10am 1.) Business of the Board (Election of Chair and Vice Chair) 2.) Recognition of Board Designees

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE sponsored by the PA Economy League MAY 19, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15

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NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf

STATE LEGISLATURES 10 Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts, 2021, using U.S. Department of Treasury and National Association of State Budget Officer’s data. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES State CSFRF Allocations 11 AK Legislative AZ MT WV HI VT NH and Sewer; Economic Impact KS MA NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES Avoiding the Fiscal Cliff ○ Managing one-time expenditures • Distinguishing budgets and projects • Non-recurring vs. recurring • Coordinating with municipalities and schools to manage funds ○ Long-term fiscal planning • Multi-year

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General 22, 2021 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. The statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found in the next section. FY

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General which includes adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the state budget. The statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found in the next section. FY

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jackson ppt.pdf

related sectors, especially professional services, also involved. • Hotels, restaurants, retail, short-term housing also get a boost. • State and local budget crunch (reduced revenues, more need for many services, can’t put it on a credit card) adding to job losses services, health-care services continue to provide jobs growth. • Public-sector employment levels off at state and local level as budget improves. • Federal level more at risk due to expected budget cuts. • Slow population growth limits job growth longer term, especially

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast May.2017 2016-17 2017-18 IFO (May 2017) $31,815 $32,447 Growth Rate 3.0% 2.0% Executive Budget (Feb 2017) 1 $32,302 $32,619 Growth Rate 4.5% 1.0% Dollar Difference -$487 -$172 Two-Year Total

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

Tax Update Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials November 16, 2021 Two Parts Overview of IFO Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Will workers return? ▪ Does inflation decelerate? ▪ Do budget surpluses last? Property Tax Update ▪ No look at COVID-19 impact on SD collections yet ▪ Some data suggest decline not

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter responds to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Grove requested an estimated breakdown of the IFO reviewed wage contracts by Research Brief and will be released as a stand-alone report later this spring. As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, the office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report in Novem- ber. However, due to the partial-year budget, the IFO has postponed release of that document to a future date. This October update may be used in its place as

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DOC_Performance_Measures_Final.pdf

Appropriations Committees: In September 2016, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a report entitled “Using Performance Measures in the State Budget.” In that report, the office described the systems and processes that certain states use to implement performance-based budgeting. The report also included a basic “prototype report” that compiled data from the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections (DOC) and other

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

is about $112 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor for the current fiscal year. The recent Executive Budget did not change the certified number.) The IFO’s reduction was based on two factors: • At the mid-point in economic growth and tax revenues in 2013, such as the expiration of the federal payroll tax cut and the federal budget sequester, should be fully absorbed at this point. However, recent wage growth and consumer spending does not appear to be

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Announcement_2021.pdf

economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. The presentation will examine various issues that impact the economic and budget outlook: (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 The Independent Fiscal Office presents ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Guest Presenter Emily Maher, NCSL: Navigating the Waters: How States are Spending Fiscal Recovery Funds

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2:00 p.m. Location: 14 th Floor Conference Center, Harrisburg University estimate for FY 2016-17. The office also will release an updated report on Pennsylvania’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, originally released on December 9 th , details the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the

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2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 Date and Time: Wednesday, December 9, 2015; 2:00 p.m. Location AARP Pennsylvania Presentation on retirement insecurity and the challenges facing Baby Boomers as they retire. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-8293 or contact@ifo.state

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

from expiration of the payroll tax cut causes an approxi- mate 1 percent contraction of the Pennsylvania economy. Short-Term Budget Impact Full-year impact on disposable income 5,031 Share of tax cut spent 50% Dollar amount of tax cut and other miscellaneous items. 3. Latest data available for 2009. Social Security Administration, Table 4.B10, 2009. 4. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that GDP would rise (over a 5-year period) by $1.30 to $1.90 per dollar of

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

and Repair About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General the tax. Table 5 Average Annual Maintenance Costs Total Maintenance Cost per Hour Typical Annual Hours Annual Maintenance Budget Piston Single Engine $80 200 $16,000 Large Piston Single Engine 162 200 32,400 Light Twin Engine Piston 201 200 40

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Supplemental_Table.pdf

Revenue Estimate Comparison Detail IFO Mid-Year Executive Budget IFO less Exec Budget 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 Total General Fund $34,780 $33,914 $34

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

Analyze fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  Office does not make policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014 2 Independent Fiscal Office Scope and assumptions

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

economic activity simply will offset one- time, or non-recurring, revenues received in the current year.” Relative to the Executive Budget presented in March, these projections are $374 million higher for FY 2014-15 and $97 million higher for FY 2015- 16, for a two-year difference of $471 million. These amounts exclude the proposed statutory changes identified in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

results of our analysis as background for Committee members in preparation for the Department of Human Services House Appropriations Committee budget hearing scheduled on March 4, 2020. To the extent that a more comprehensive analysis is needed, we will transmit any additional information within four weeks of the conclusion of the Fiscal Year 2020-21 budget hearings. If this schedule changes, we will contact your office. Child Welfare Program Funding in Pennsylvania For state fiscal year

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

Information on certain tax credits and spending programs that was not available from either agency was sourced from the Executive Budget or estimates by the IFO. For recent years, estimates from these sources may reflect total credits awarded or the program Capital Program payments ($139.6 million) decreased by $33.2 million from the prior fiscal year. The Office of the Budget awards these funds for the acquisition and construction of local economic, cultural, civic, recreational and historical improvement projects. In CY

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Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf

Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 Date and Time: Thursday, November 13, 2014; 1:30 p.m. Location outlook for Pennsylvania: (1) the composition of job creation; and (2) trends in household formation. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-8293 or contact@ifo.state

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. March 8, 2018 Revenue Estimate Comparison IFO –Mid Year Executive Budget IFO less E.B. 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 17-18 18-19 Total General Fund $34 5.0% 5.5% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note: Percentages refer to the share of state GDP. Source: Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, IFO (November 2017). March 8, 2018 Pension Update Act 5 Impacts on

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

February 27, 2018 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office CompetePA Retreat Economy, Revenues and Budget Pennsylvania economic growth rates or change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% strong (+$90 million), inheritance collections above estimate (+$30 million)  Significant revenue uncertainty for remainder of fiscal year Longer-term budget outlook remains challenging under current law  FY 2017-18: modest surplus if $200 million Joint Underwriter's Association transfer

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

Budget and Economic Update Presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office June in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Summary Increase to IFO Official Estimate of +$866 million  Translate to Executive Budget Official Estimate: +$790 million FY 19-20 tax revenue growth rate of 3.5%  Somewhat weaker than wage growth

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

Cost per Prescription $20.85 $29.15 +11.8% 1 Dollar amounts in millions and state funds only. Source: Executive Budget, various years. May 24, 2017 21 Long-Term Living and HCBS 2013-14 Actual 2016-17 Available Avg. Ann. Growth Term Living total spending includes $113 million intergovernmental transfer. Source: April 2017 Department of Human Services monthly report and Executive Budget, various years. May 24, 2017 22 Long-Term Imbalance Funding Sources for Senior Programs Avg. Ann. Growth General Fund 3

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PBB-Tax-Credits-Schedule-2019-05.pdf

Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule Year Performance-Based Budgets 1 Corrections Board of Probation and Parole PA Commission on Crime & Delinquency Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission Banking and Securities General

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

Bone Marrow Donation Mobile Telecom Broadband Research and Development Keystone Innovation Zones DCED PBB Highlights Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 23, 2020 2/27/2020 0 Tax Credit Reviews - Overview Tax credit reviews have four objectives ▪ Identify the compliance monitoring January 23, 2020 18 PBB Highlights Dept of Health Dept of Human Services Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 23, 2020 2/27/2020 19 Department of Health (DOH) January 23, 2020 20 DOH Actual Spend and

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

to the “resurgence of the U.S. chemi- cal manufacturing sector” and general economic development. (Full Article) -April 2018 - Congressional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028 The CBO updated its deficit projections from the previous release in June 2017 to

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MRU_2020_11.pdf

the month ($90.4 million, 80.3 percent). The strength was the result of a $100 million transfer from the Budget Stabilization Fund (other miscellaneous) which was not included in the official estimate. FYTD non-tax revenues exceed estimate by $97 release an updated estimate and monthly distributions consistent with the passage of the remaining portion of the FY 2020-21 budget in January 2021. Monthly Revenue Update November 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections Fiscal Year Collections

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

due primarily to cigarette tax revenues ($39.7 million, 16.2 percent). Due to the passage of a partial-year budget, the IFO will delay the release of its regular five-year economic and budget outlook in mid-November. In its place, the office will release an updated economic and revenue forecast for FY 2020-

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General the impact from statutory changes (Acts 13, 15, 16, 20 and 65) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted Gen- eral Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General not include the impact from statutory changes (Acts 39 and 42) enacted in conjunc- tion with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provi- sions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

will be constrained by non-recurring revenues received in FY 2016-17 and various technical factors.” Relative to the Executive Budget presented in February, these projections are $487 million lower for FY 2016-17 and $172 million lower for FY 2017- 18, for a two-year difference of -$658 million. These amounts exclude the proposed statutory changes identified in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate, which includes a discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

535 23.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2017 and 2025 are estimates from the IFO Economic and Budget Outlook (Nov. 2017). Jan.25.2018 4 Independent Fiscal Office Multiple Factors Drive PA Aging 0 20,000 40,000 3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for 2017 are preliminary. real GDP growth Future Challenges for State Budget Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Ratio: Working Age / Age 65+ 3.9 3

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office | November 2019 1 Welcome Katherine Loughead continue to increase Moderate growth of personnel cost drivers after FY 19-20  Personnel costs are 13% of state budget (excludes PSERS) State economy operates at long-term potential | No recession  Real GDP +1.8% | Wages-Salaries +3.9%

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 21, 2021 Today’s Presentation Four Parts 501 -2,600 -2,488 -2,330 -1,961 Note: Millions of dollars. Prior year lapses include transfers to the Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund. Summary Top 2020 economic terms: “unprecedented” and “unchartered waters”  But both are true | we have not

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

points lower than the employer contribution rate used to estimate the state share of PSERS employer contributions in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, which was issued by the Independent Fiscal Office on November 16, 2017 computation remain unchanged. The following table displays an update to Table 5.6, which was originally published in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23 on November 16, 2017 (see page 49). The table shows total state

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

Katharine Witgert Program Manager National Academy for State Health Policy Annual Presentation The Economic and Budget Outlook Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2012 Health Care Reform: What it Means for States 1 • 25

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

Fiscal Office About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

October 2012 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General

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SR2017-03.pdf

generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 .See “Effective Federal Tax Rates, 1979 to 1997” (Congressional Budget Office, October 2001) and “Tax Foundation State-Local Tax Burden Estimates: An Overview of Methodology” (Tax Foundation, Working Paper 10

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

result from analysis of recent revenue collections and technical factors related to the timing of receipts. Relative to the Executive Budget published in early March, the latest projections are $363 million higher for FY14-15 and $98 million higher for FY15-

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

games of chance tax revenues and new information on the timing of potential casino licensing decisions. Relative to the Executive Budget published in February, these projections are $572 million lower for FY13-14 and $870 million lower for FY14-15, a

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

3.7 14.9 13.5 9.5 Net Payroll Jobs 1.4% -13.5% 4.3% 7.3% Congressional Budget Office 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.3% -6.0% 4.4% n.a. Wages-Salaries 4.6% -6

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

WSJ May 19)? May 20, 2019 19 Summary Increase to IFO Official Estimate of +$866 million  Translate to Executive Budget Official Estimate: +$790 million FY 19-20 tax revenue growth rate of 3.5%  Somewhat weaker than wage growth

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

Driver: Consumer Spending  Consumers must drive economic growth. o Comprise 70% of economic activity. o Federal, state and local budgets are constrained. o Weak overseas demand.  Sales and Use Tax collections have been very weak. o July to December

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Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf

IFO (June 21, 2019 and updated to reflect statutory changes that were enacted with the fiscal year 2019-20 state budget). They should be viewed as approximations only. The estimates do not incorporate effective dates or a compliance phase-in. In

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Response-Letter-05-13-2019.pdf

and driven out similar to the Act 1 subsidies. FY 2017-18 are actuals consistent with the Governor's Executive Budget, later years are estimated by the IFO. 8 Includes all school district property taxes (residential, commercial, etc.). All years estimated

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RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release demographic projections that will be incorporated into its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results from those projections that estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

includes this section in response to a specific request from a member of the General Assembly during the March 2021 budget hearings. 8 In reality, the out-of-state spending is likely larger because it would include travel, internet sales and

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RB-2017-5.pdf

FY 2010-11 to FY 2015-16. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, California Legislative Analyst's Office, Indiana Department of Revenue, Louisiana Department of Revenue, Illinois Department of Revenue

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QRR_2015Q4.pdf

20 million for the fiscal year. News reports indicated that some counties may have withheld funds during the budget impasse. If this occurred, the reported results understate the strength in this category. Table 2 General Fund Year-Over-Year Growth Rates

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

242 million, suggesting that collections attributable to the shorter holding period were close to $400 million. • The enacted budget package anticipated a transfer of $95 million from the Oil and Gas Lease Fund to the General Fund. The transfer did not

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

Deputy Director January 19, 2017 1/19/2017 1 Background and Overview Independent Fiscal Office started September 2011.  Provide budget projections: November, May/June and January.  Special reports at request of General Assembly. First: Provide some context on property

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

CPI 49% SUT 54% Note: PIT is adjusted for tax rate increase in 2004. Long Term Challenges ahead for PA Budget o Moderate economic growth. o Lagging tax collections. o Increased demand for healthcare. o Pension contributions. Can States Escape Demographic

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf

PBB Addendums Updated Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Review Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board September 28, 2021 PBB Addendum Requests Pennsylvania Department of Transportation ▪ Activity 12 – Administration: Human Resources measures related to career

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf

Tax Credit Reviews Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 26, 2021 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 3 Theme: improving the lives of PA residents ▪ NAP – incentivizes investment

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PBB-Board-Hearings-Schedule-2019.pdf

Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Tuesday, January 22, 2019 Wednesday, January 23, 2019 Thursday, January 24, 2019 10:00 A.M. - 12:00

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

CY 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

Revenue Update PACP Chamber Day 2021 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office June 17, 2021 Three Issues Dominate Economic and Budget Outlook What happens when federal support expires? ▪ Nearly $160 billion of federal monies injected into state ▪ What happens to income

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

3.7 14.9 13.5 9.5 Net Payroll Jobs 1.4% -13.5% 4.3% 7.3% Congressional Budget Office 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.3% -6.0% 4.4% n.a. Wages-Salaries 4.6% -6

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

operators, and fruit and Christmas tree farms. Income Tax Breaks for Seniors Estimated at $1.5 Billion The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released a report that discusses tax breaks targeted to seniors. Pennsylvania is one of three states (Illinois

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

for 2016 For most states, income tax revenues came in far below projections for FY 2016-17, leading to large budget defi- cits. New federal income tax data provide insights regarding those unexpected shortfalls. Compared to the prior year, the federal

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

EZP contributions, where it is unclear whether the investment would occur regardless, albeit possibly in another Pennsylvania location. When determining budget priorities, policymakers must weigh the tradeoff between alternative spending programs. Funds directed to one program may enhance/incentivize out- of-

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

reflect the impact of recently enacted legislation. 2 The legislation was enacted as part of the FY 2017-18 state budget. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Nov-17 $2,306 $2,159 $147 Growth 16.0%

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

ranked 18th in the nation. In addition to significant personal costs, the crisis also has implications for state and local budgets and economies. The opioid overdose death rate (rate per 100,000 in population) has increased dramatically. (See table.) In 2015

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

the latest three months, collections have increased by only 0.8 percent. Sales tax revenues are critical to the state budget because each percentage point of growth generates roughly $100 million of new revenues. Weak sales tax revenues are not limited

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MRU-2021-06.pdf

the elimination of certain one-time special funds transfers ($59.5 million) in the enactment of the FY 2021-22 budget. Non-tax revenues for the fiscal year essentially met estimate at $1.21 billion. Monthly Revenue Update June 2021 FY

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

release an updated estimate and monthly distributions consistent with the passage of the remaining portion of the FY 2020-21 budget in January 2021. Monthly Revenue Update December 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections Fiscal Year Collections

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

traded companies, and larger privately owned companies. Why Cutting Corporate Income Taxes Won’t Help State Economies  Short-term budget constraints mean spending must be cut to pay for it.  Benefits of tax cut accrue to shareholders, wherever they

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 3. Prices are from Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 3. Prices are from Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 4. Prices are from Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 3. Prices are from Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget, for a discussion of the lifetime and annual ETRs.) 5. The price used for this calculation is a weighted average

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

accommodation/travel sectors. The IFO will release a more comprehensive analysis of the proposed higher minimum wage from the Executive Budget in late March or early April. That report will also include an analysis of the combined reporting and personal income

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

Revenue Impact For the purpose of estimating the potential revenue impact from combined reporting proposed in last year’s Executive Budget, the IFO surveyed reports, fiscal notes and other documents from states that enacted combined reporting in the past decade. Overall

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

5% 0.9% 3.5% --- Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic and Budget Outlook, IFO (Nov. 2019), Zillow, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. CreationDate: 2019-12-02 19:52:52 Creator

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf

ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

Why the increase? 1. Greater investment in risky assets 2. Plans much larger now relative to economy and state-local budgets than 10-20 years ago •Details are in the appendix 13 * 30-year closed-period level percentage of pay, 7

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2019-Pub-2.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office presents Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Date and Time Economic and Budget Outlook Location Agenda Guest Presenters Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 1:30 pm Harrisburg University of Science and Technology Conference

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

n.a. 0.1% 0.6% Tax Foundation -$1,783 69.5% 0.5% 3.4% Note: Figures exclude the budget impact from eliminating the ACA individual mandate. JCT estimates that provision reduces outlays by $297 billion and reduces debt by

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2001_hr266.pdf

in terms of the avoidance of unfunded liabilities 13 currently paid off at the taxpayer's expense, more precise 14 budgeting, fixed employer costs, a risk shift to the member, 15 improved recruiting tools and a potential loosening of political 16

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Pensions

Search Form • Results Bill # Subject Printer # Sponsor Synopsis HR 59 Summary • Early Retirement Benefits 618 Merski Would direct the Legislative Budget and Finance Committee to conduct a study on the viability of an early retirement proposal for both SERS and PSERS

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