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PPP Loans to Pennsylvania Businesses This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. Tags: businesses, employment, ppp, tax
PPP Loans to Pennsylvania businesses This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. 12/08/2020
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf Chairman Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Westmoreland County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations was prepared by the Commission in response to the national movement to encourage legislatively mandated divestment from companies that do business with politically, socially, or morally repugnant countries or causes. Most recently, these initiatives have been embodied in House Bill Number Hits: 270
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Table of Contents Background and Methodology ............................................................................................. 1 Department Overview ......................................................................................................... 3 Activity 1: Business Attraction and Financing ........................................................................ 9 Activity 2: Business and Workforce Assistance .....................................................................15 Activity 3: Site Development ..............................................................................................19 Activity 4: Local Infrastructure ...........................................................................................21 Activity 5: Innovation Economy and Investments .................................................................25 Activity Hits: 111
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf and (2) qualifies for a tax credit equal to 100% of the credit-eligible investment. The contribution made by the business firm must be used by the rural growth fund for invest- ment in rural growth businesses. The RJITC Program is currently capped at an aggregate of $30 million, with $6 million awarded annually over a five- Hits: 105
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf 8: Real Estate Management .................................................................................... 27 Activity 9: Risk and Insurance Management ........................................................................ 31 Activity 10: Diversity, Inclusion and Small Business Opportunities ......................................... 33 Activity 11: Metrology ........................................................................................................ 37 Activity 12: Administration ................................................................................................. 39 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 41 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................41 - This  modernizing the DGS Public Works operation;  consolidating print and mail operations;  improving small and diverse business opportunities; and  reinvigorating the Commonwealth’s energy management and alternative energy efforts. In 2017, DGS began pursuing innovation in a more Hits: 68
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of business closures, other mitigation efforts and increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. A separate report that describes the methodologies days and bars and restaurants close for certain large southeastern counties  March 23: all non-life sustaining businesses close (some obtain waivers), stay-at-home orders for certain counties  April 1: stay-at-home orders for all counties  Hits: 44
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of business closures, other mitigation efforts and increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. A separate report that describes the methodologies days and bars and restaurants close for certain large southeastern counties  March 23: all non-life sustaining businesses close (some obtain waivers), stay-at-home orders for certain counties  April 1: stay-at-home orders for all counties  Hits: 41
RB-2016-02.pdf encourage or subsidize activities that may result in economic development. A program is included in this report if job creation, business growth or industry promotion is a primary objective. Some programs may eventually lead to economic development as a secondary effect development is not the main purpose of those programs, they are excluded from this report. 2. Intended to in Ðluence business decisions. One objective of economic development incentives is to encourage businesses to engage in activity that they may not otherwise Hits: 39
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf quirements contained in Act 48. The WDTC program is unique to Pennsylvania. No other state offers a tax credit to business firms that contribute to nonprofit waterfront development projects. Alabama, Maryland and New Jersey offer tax credits for contributions to certain and Recommendations The Waterfront Development Tax Credit (WDTC) was created by Act 84 of 2016 and is available to approved business firms that contribute cash or property to a qualified organization to fund an approved waterfront development project. The credit is Hits: 31
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf the current cap of $55 million (Act 26 of 2011), with an $11 million set aside for small businesses. Eligible firms can apply a 10 percent credit rate to a subset of their qualified research expenses (QRE) or 20 percent if the firm is a small business (less than $5 million of assets). The general findings of this report are as follows:  Thirty-two states offer an RDTC Hits: 29
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf Across States ........................................................................................................ 12 Recent Minimum Wage Studies ...................................................................................................... 14 Workers Affected by a $12 per Hour Minimum Wage ....................................................................... 19 Businesses Affected by a $12 per Hour Minimum Wage ................................................................... 22 Employment Impact from a $12 per Hour Minimum Wage ............................................................... 23 Income Effects for for tax years beginning in 2024 and thereafter and (2) requires corporations that are members of a unitary busi- ness group to apportion their income via a combined annual report for tax purposes, a filing method com- monly known as combined Hits: 29
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf II Ms. Hall joined the IFO in May 2019. Primary responsibilities include forecasting corporate net income tax revenues, business- and economic-related research, performance-based budgeting initiatives and various other projects including the Special Education Funding Formula survey. Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal 14 states have preempted local jurisdictions from enacting regulations. These states cite concerns such as: compliance challenges for businesses due to a patchwork of regulations across municipalities and a need to better understand the economic consequences of regulation on consumers and Hits: 27
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf a preview of revenue estimates for FY 2020-21. The estimates represent potential outcomes based on the length of mandated business closures under two scenarios. Scenario 1 assumes a six-week closure that ends April 27. Scenario 2 assumes a ten- for FY 2020-21 on May 20. At that point, it should be clear whether the assumed length of the business closures must be revisited and updated. To provide context for this update, Table 1 displays forecasts by the IFO and Hits: 27
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf generally informed by available data from third party sources and the timeline of the phased reopening for Pennsylvania businesses. Cash Flow Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax two revenue sources are linked because the decision to purchase taxable goods is a function of wage and business income, while wage and business income are simultaneously a function of total consumer and business purchases. Hence, the methodologies used to project Hits: 27
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf two revenue sources are linked because the decision to purchase taxable goods is a function of wage and business income, while wage and business income are simultaneously a function of total consumer and business purchases. Hence, the methodologies used to project these tax revenues should be Hits: 27
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf to offset contributions to scholarships and/or educa- tional programs. In most states the credit is available to individuals and businesses and ten states provide the tax credit at a rate equal to 100% of eligible contributions. Organizations are generally allowed and Recommendations The Educational Tax Credits are currently authorized under Article XX-B of the Public School Code and incentivize business contributions to approved K-12 scholarship organizations, pre-kindergarten (pre-K) scholarship organizations or educational improvement organizations. The organizations utilize Hits: 25
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Rural Public Transit................ Provide oversight and support for smaller transit agencies 8 Intercity Transit............................................... Provide support for passenger rail and bus operations 9 Aviation.......................................................... Improve aviation services throughout the state 10 Commercial and Other Multimodal................... Increase economic use of transportation infrastructure 4 58% 61% 70% 74% 78% -- % Real IDs issued of total DL and IDs -- -- -- 2% 9% -- Mail service turnaround time (business days) DL and VR renewals 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 -- DL applications 9.5 7 Hits: 24
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf for tax years beginning in 2025 and thereafter and (2) requires corporations that are members of a unitary business group to apportion their income via a combined annual report for tax purposes, a filing method commonly known as combined reporting, effective tude of the individual combined reporting and rate reduction estimates. Previous IFO analyses scored the 1 A unitary business is a single economic enterprise that is comprised of separate parts of a single business entity or of a commonly controlled group Hits: 23
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf error rates. Three key metrics to monitor include refunds paid within the required time frame, personal income tax (PIT) and business returns submitted electronically and PIT non- withholding payments processed electronically. 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 Tax Administration Refunds paid within required time frame (%) 1 91% 95% 95% 89% 91% -- PIT and business returns filed electronically (%) -- 85% 87% 87% 93% 94% PIT non-witholding payments processed electronically (%) 18% 21% 22% 30% 35% -- Enforcement Hits: 23
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf measurement devices 6 Agriculture Marketing and Development....... Markets and promotes Pennsylvania agricultural products 7 Plant Industry and Health.............................. Regulates plant businesses and protects plant health 8 Administration............................................... Provides organizational leadership and support Department of Agriculture: Activities and Primary Services Provided 16- 489 1,590 1,474 1,638 -- -- Small scale (0-1,000 lbs) 1,045 981 972 1,006 -- -- Plant business 227 190 193 190 113 143 Dog kennel Domestic animal PAIRS and IT System Modernization 1 % Workload processed electronically Food Hits: 23
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf Page 3 Corporate Net Income Tax Proposal Highlights The administration’s proposal requires corporations that are members of a unitary business group to ap- portion their income via a combined annual report for tax purposes, a filing method known as combined does change the relative magnitudes of the individual combined reporting and rate reduction estimates. Under mandatory combined reporting, multi-state businesses that form a unitary group are required to file a combined return as if the related entities were a single Hits: 22
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf years. These two revenue sources are linked because the decision to purchase taxable goods is a function of wage and business income, while wage and business income are simultaneously a function of total consumer and business purchases. Hence, the methodologies used to project these tax revenues Hits: 22
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf 2004 created the Keystone Innovation Zone (KIZ) Tax Credit. The program provides tax credits to qualified for-profit businesses that meet the following criteria: (1) located within the geographic bound- aries of a KIZ, (2) in operation for less than eight operations transacted within the KIZ, grants, licensing fees from the applicant’s intellectual property and cash awards from business competitions or incubator programs that appear on an applicant’s tax return. Gross revenues exclude rents, sales of tax credits, loans and Hits: 21
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf cost of adding an additional full-time employee.  The annual credit allocation (25 percent) reserved for small businesses (fewer than 100 employees) could be more efficient if it were transferable or refundable, as these firms often lack sufficient tax liability years. Twenty-five percent of the total credits authorized in any fiscal year are initially reserved for small businesses (those with fewer than 100 employees), but are avail- able for any firm if not committed by April 30 of the fiscal Hits: 21
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf years. These two revenue sources are linked because the decision to purchase taxable goods is a function of wage and business income, while wage and business income are simultaneously a function of total consumer and business purchases. Hence, the methodologies used to project these tax revenues Hits: 21
NAP-2018-03.pdf IFO | MARCH 2018 1 INTRODUCTION Pennsylvania’s Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) encourages businesses to invest in projects that serve distressed areas or support neighborhood conservation. 1 This tax credit program is administered by up to 80 percent for a commitment of six or more years. The minimum annual contribution is $50,000 per business and the project must have a minimum of $100,000 in commitments. Charitable Food Program (CFP) – Provides a tax credit Hits: 21
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf to the COVID-19 pandemic, calendar year (CY) 2020 was a tumultuous year for state economic growth. In March 2020, business closures related to COVID-19 and mitigation efforts caused an immediate and severe contraction of the national and state economies. In May, businesses in certain counties partially reopened and economic growth began to recover. By August, a rapid recovery had slowed notably and Hits: 20
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf districts? 2. How do distributions compare to a “current law” property tax baseline for schools? 3. Potential economic impacts. 1. Business and non-business. 2. Homeowners and renters. 3. Home prices and rent payments. 4. Business competitiveness. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 Hits: 19
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf will be 2.75 to 3.00 and will have a significant impact on interest rates paid by consumers and businesses. ▪ The Fed announced that it will begin to “taper” its holding of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, which 578 billion reduction (-6.5%). The taper should also result in upward pressure on interest rates paid by consumers and businesses. Nearly all analysts identify loose monetary policy as a significant factor that motivates historically high inflation. If the Fed implements Hits: 19
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf will be 2.75 to 3.00 and will have a significant impact on interest rates paid by consumers and businesses. ▪ The Fed announced that it will begin to “taper” its holding of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, which 578 billion reduction (-6.5%). The taper should also result in upward pressure on interest rates paid by consumers and businesses. Nearly all analysts identify loose monetary policy as a significant factor that motivates historically high inflation. If the Fed implements Hits: 19
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf of 1971 (Act 48 of 1994) created the Neighborhood Assistance Pro- gram (NAP) Tax Credit. The NAP Tax Credit incentivizes businesses to contribute or invest in eligible pro- jects carried out by neighborhood organizations to improve distressed areas and support low- designated priority problems or projects. 4 (3) Neighborhood Partnership Program (NPP): Promotes collaboration with partners and generation of long-term business relationships by providing tax credits for eligible contributions that target multiple projects over several years. The projects must be based Hits: 16
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf Grants and rebates also get funds to firms more quickly.  To increase the impact of the tax credit on business formation/job creation, consideration should be given to limiting the tax credit (or grant) to young firms that may not Credit must provide a complete application package that includes the following:  Evidence that the applicant is registered to do business in Pennsylvania and has a valid state tax ID number.  Indication that all personal service corporations or loan-out Hits: 15
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf bankruptcy of three large mortgage lenders. 4 Large financial institutions began to conserve capital and sharply reduced loans to consumers, businesses and other financial institutions. In an effort to restore liquidity to financial markets, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds months ago. Other broad measures confirm the lethargic nature of the recovery. Based on the January 2012 economic forecast, real business investment will need six years to surpass its pre-recession peak, while real housing investment fails to ever attain its Hits: 15
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf estimate assumes that a new variant of COVID-19 does not emerge that would result in further mitigation efforts and business closures. It also assumes that no new federal monies flow to state residents and temporary unemployment compensation (UC) programs expire and en- gaging in more at-home entertainment options (e.g., streaming services, at-home gyms, food de- livery services). ▪ Businesses largely revert to prior hiring and production operations, but many have streamlined operations and implemented more liberal telework policies. They Hits: 14
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf tax years beginning in 2023 and thereafter and (2) requires corporations that are mem- bers of a unitary business group to apportion their income via a combined annual report for tax purposes, a filing method commonly known as combined reporting, effective for tax years beginning in 2019 and thereafter. 1 1 A unitary business is a single economic enterprise that is comprised of separate parts of a single business entity or of a commonly controlled group Hits: 14
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf Tax Services | Page 18 Notes on Measures ▪ New status determinations are performed on new, re-registering and other newly liable businesses in the Commonwealth. The business has 30 days to register after qualified work under Pennsylvania law is first performed. The department then issues a determination Hits: 14
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf estimate assumes that a new variant of COVID-19 does not emerge that would result in further mitigation efforts and business closures. It also assumes that no new federal monies flow to state residents and temporary unemployment compensation (UC) programs expire and en- gaging in more at-home entertainment options (e.g., streaming services, at-home gyms, food de- livery services). ▪ Businesses largely revert to prior hiring and production operations, but many have streamlined operations and implemented more liberal telework policies. They Hits: 14
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf geographic location of new MBTI that uses the tax credit program, the number and type (res- idential or business) of entities affected, the presence of alternative internet options (if any) and average service speed. 1 Article XVIII-E of the Tax limited number of applicants is the result of the small number of firms engaged in this type of business activity, rather than high administrative and compliance costs to qualify for the program. 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019- Hits: 13
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf 3.3% -6.6% -2.6% 0.6% Personal Transfer Receipts 3.7% -- 3.3% 91.5% 56.1% -- Small Business Income 4.0% -- 4.8% -10.9% -4.0% -- Philadelphia CPI-U 2.0% 0.9% 2.6% 0.0% is change from prior year. Labor market data are not seasonally adjusted. U.S. Labor Productivity is for All Nonfarm Businesses and is a year-over-year rate. Small Business Income is called Proprietor's Income in the National Income and Hits: 13
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf the Airport Land Development Zone Program. The program was modeled after the Keystone Special Development Zone Program and offers participating businesses an annual tax credit of $2,100 over ten years for each new job created. • As part of the tax 5 million (+146%). Both programs support technology-based companies and entrepreneurs in Pennsylvania. • The Commonwealth Finance Authority (CFA) administers the Business in Our Sites program, which awards grants and loans for non-residential or recreational site development projects. In FY 2021- Hits: 12
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf from SUT when they will be resold, rented or leased in the ordinary course of the purchaser’s business.  Use by a Nonresident - Aircraft and aircraft parts are exempt from SUT when they are brought into Pennsylvania by a nonresident used primarily to transport persons or property, for hire and by the purchaser to transport tangible property for business purposes. 4/ Exempts aircraft with fractional share ownership. 5/ Exempts aircraft considered as rolling stock. 6/ Exempts aircraft purchased for public transportation Hits: 12
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf 85 of 2012) created the Pennsylvania Resource Manu- facturing (PRM) Tax Credit. The PRM Tax Credit is available to approved business firms that purchase ethane to manufacture ethylene at a qualified facility in the Commonwealth. 2 To be eligible for the program, the business firm must (1) make a capital investment of at least $1.0 billion for the purpose of constructing a Pennsylvania Hits: 11
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf Funded projects support economic development and tourism programs in Philadelphia and Allegheny counties • The Commonwealth Finance Authority (CFA) administers the Business in Our Sites program, awarding grants and loans for non-residential or recreational site development projects. For FY 2020-21 million (-48%) from FY 2019-20. This program supports regional economic development projects through partnerships with Local Development Districts, Small Business Development Centers and other entities, assisting businesses through workforce, market and real-estate development efforts. • Workforce and Economic Development Network Hits: 11
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. 1 The program made forgivable loans available to small businesses and other entities that met certain criteria such as firms that (1) have 500 or fewer employees worldwide, (2) have million and average net income less than $5 million for the prior two fiscal years and (3) conform to Small Business Administration (SBA) size standards for their industry. 2 The primary goal of the PPP was to provide economic relief to Hits: 11
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf 16 of 2019 increased the program cap from $160.0 million to $185.0 million. Credits are available to eligible businesses that contribute to an educational scholarship or improvement organization.  Utilization of the Film Production Tax Credit ($63.0 million projects support economic development and tourism programs in Philadelphia and Allegheny county.  The Commonwealth Finance Authority (CFA) administers the Business in Our Sites program, awarding grants and loans for non-residential or recreational site development projects. FY 2019- 20 awards Hits: 11
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf 174 new voter registrations and 5.1 million votes cast.  In 2018, DOS processed 112,232 new business licenses and maintained a file of nearly 900,000 active licensees.  In 2018, the State Athletic Commission sanctioned a record 552 mailings to every corporation once every 10 years to request a response if they are no longer in business or have changed their contact information. However, the department cannot legally remove businesses from its database if corporations do not respond. This Hits: 11
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx KIZ (28 zones) ▪ Credit = 50% increase in gross revenues from prior year ▪ KIZ firms partner with higher education and local businesses ▪ Credit is oversubscribed | 84% proration factor | 80-90% are sold Numerous positive indirect effects and benefits ▪ Clustering : synergies due to 2020 13 DCED Actual Spend and FTEs (2018-19) 14 January 23, 2020 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Business Attraction and Financing 65 22.5% $35.9 8.3% Administration 61 21.0 % 12.8 3.0 % Community and Hits: 11
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf in the trade, transportation, and utilities (19.3%) and construction (16.9%) sectors. Pandemic Leads to Sharp Decline in Pennsylvania Business Startups On April 8, the U.S. Census Bureau began releasing a weekly state-level series on Business Formation Statistics (BFS). This experimental series provides insight into the pandemic’s impact on Pennsylvania entrepreneurial activity. The BFS tracks Hits: 11
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf 2.41 billion ARP transfer) as the impact of $120 billion of federal stimulus dis- bursed to Pennsylvania residents and businesses wanes. From FY 2022-23 to FY 2026-27, the forecast projects that General Fund tax revenues will increase at in FY 2019-20 and then expanded rapidly due to $120 billion of federal stimulus disbursed to Pennsylvania residents and businesses. ▪ For FY 2022-23, the forecast assumes demand slows and various technical factors partially revert to values prior to the Hits: 11
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf to live, work and visit.  Long-term economic development as reflected by various economic metrics, such as business sales, income and jobs. Administration and Implementation The Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum location. Historic structures have unique characteristics besides their location, but firms may have multiple potential locations for their business operations. Nearly all studies assume that no con- struction or rehabilitation would have occurred in any location without a state tax credit Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf Applications for New Business in Pennsylvania Grow 15% Over 2019 The U.S. Census Bureau released Pennsylvania weekly business application data for the week ending September 12, 2020. The data reveal that after slowing in March through June, business Hits: 10
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf Smaller impact: wages also increase directly and indirectly Miscellaneous issues  Static vs. dynamic revenue impact  Most non-financial business activity in Pennsylvania is non-corporate 2 Federal 100% Bonus Depreciation Policy has a significant impact on total U.S law?  Will PA be left behind if we don’t conform?  Will investment be routed somewhere else? 3 Business Tax Climate and Other Rankings All tax rankings are imperfect because they cannot reflect all aspects of the state tax Hits: 9
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf Mission The Pennsylvania Department of Banking and Securities (DOBS) regulates financial services and works to ensure consumers and businesses are well-informed about the marketplace. Services Provided The Department works to preserve and promote public confidence in the Commonwealth’s financial percent of all banks are chartered and supervised by state regulators and they provide half of all small business lending.  The Department also managed and supervised 25,454 non-depository entities that provide residential mortgage, auto sales financing, check cashing Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf an estimate of $1.2 billion (3.1% * $37 billion) of home equity withdrawn in 2020 Q3 by Pennsylvania homeowners. Business Travel Could Permanently Decline 19% to 36% A recent WSJ article discusses the potential long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business travel. The pandemic caused a steep drop in business travel as business trainings and meetings were canceled or moved online Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf and how government support programs provided temporary funding that allowed many households to pay down their debt. Number of Small Businesses Open and Revenues Decline from July Peak Opportunity Insights released updated data for the number of small businesses open and small business revenues, as compared to January 2020. Small businesses open in the U.S. declined by 12 Hits: 9
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf track performance metrics prior to 2028 report January 10, 2023 5 #3 Rural Jobs and Investment Purpose: Invest in rural businesses that have difficulty accessing capital ▪ DCED grants $50m in investment authority | $30m in tax credits ▪ Funds raise $50m in capital to invest in rural businesses (debt/equity investments) ▪ Fund/investors receive: tax credits + repayment of debt + interest/fees/equity ▪ Funds may exit program after 7 Hits: 8
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf commit- ment letter. For FY 2021-22, $1.59 million in tax credits were authorized to five applicants that have business estab- lishments in three counties (Allegheny, Luzerne and Lycoming), and the new employees may or may not reside in those jobs for up to 10 years 150% state minimum wage Create a number of jobs based on location tier of business $5 million Oklahoma $500/new job ($1,000 in Enterprise Zone) for up to 5 years $7,000 or more Hits: 8
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf to the inflation of assets such as stock holdings and homes.  Personal income tax (PIT) - Other includes non-corporate business profits, capital gains, dividends, rent and taxable interest. Revenues from those income sources (37.5%) outperformed the overall state economy during a single quarter in 2021 due to the pandemic or (2) the firm qualified as a “recovery start up business” in the third or fourth quarter of 2021. (A much smaller tax credit was also available for 2020.) IRS processing Hits: 8
RB 2019 RACP.pdf that spur economic and local development or do not fall cleanly into one of the other categories. This could include business park redevelopments, private business assistance, housing facilities, sport facility expansions, or targeted industry grants to union halls and similar organizations. Public infrastructure upgrades to Hits: 8
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf and examinations to ensure solvency of companies providing products in the Commonwealth (Activity 4). The total number of companies doing business in the Commonwealth increased, while the number of domestic companies decreased (page 18). The share of billable hours conducted by recoveries/restitutions ($ millions) $5.5 $17.4 $11.0 $7.2 $13.8 $16.1 Financial Regulation Total companies doing business in PA 1 1,692 1,706 1,715 1,712 1,712 -- Billable hours conducted by PID staff (%) 39% Hits: 8
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf inspector -- -- -- 17 12 -- # Complaints received # Provisional licenses -- -- -- 9 15 -- % Licenses that pass inspection -- -- -- 99% 99% -- % LIS issued w/n 15 business days 2 -- -- -- 46% 67% -- % POC accepted/rejected w/n 10 business days 3 -- -- -- 75% 79% -- Facilities Serving Persons With ID/Autism (ODP) 4 # Licenses -- 1,015 1,035 1,079 1 Hits: 8
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf pocket medical costs for con- sumers (includes deductions from paychecks) and does not reflect insurance premiums paid by businesses. The quarterly data reveal a clear deceleration of inflation on a year-over-year basis since the first quarter of 2017. Only five components: (1) wages and salaries, (2) capital income (interest, dividends, rent-royalties and capital gains), (3) net business profits (partnerships, S corporations and sole proprietors), (4) retirement income (pensions and IRAs) and (5) government transfers (Social Security and income maintenance Hits: 8
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf Matt Gardner Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy 11/14/2019 Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Introduction to ITEP The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) is a non-profit pot, and apply the apportionment rule to the whole pot, just once.  Subsidiaries must be part of a “unitary business” to be thrown in the pot. Combined Reporting: Why?  Takes away the incentive for cross-state income shifting. Less Hits: 8
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf pocket medical costs for con- sumers (includes deductions from paychecks) and does not reflect insurance premiums paid by businesses. The quarterly data reveal a clear deceleration of inflation on a year-over-year basis since the first quarter of 2017. Only five components: (1) wages and salaries, (2) capital income (interest, dividends, rent-royalties and capital gains), (3) net business profits (partnerships, S corporations and sole proprietors), (4) retirement income (pensions and IRAs) and (5) government transfers (Social Security and income maintenance Hits: 8
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Dec 21 Dec 07 IFO forecast Dec 19 Dec 20 financial and housing bust dotcom bust Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Independent Fiscal Office 4 February 2022 Economics – Jobs and Labor Force Participation Economics Hits: 8
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf Care 127 Community & Citizen Development 331 Disease Prevention and Outreach 114 Local Infrastructure 89 Public Health & Emerg. Medical Serv. 72 Business Attraction & Financing 64 Health Research 55 Innovation Economy & Investments 42 Quality Assurance 50 Business and Workforce Assistance 29 Maternal and Child Health 44 Tourism Attraction & Development 24 Drug Surveillance & Misuse Prevent. 31 Local Government Hits: 8
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf fees, costs and expenses related to the administration and investment of the plan and the trust. (d) Name for transacting business.--By the name of "The School Employees' Defined Contribution Plan," all of the business of the plan shall be transacted, the trust invested, all requisitions for money drawn and payments made and all of Hits: 8
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf is submitted to the Department of Revenue (DOR). 5 Tax credits are available to offset qualified tax liability attributable to business activity within the KSDZ and may be utilized against Pennsylvania personal income, corporate net income, bank and trust company shares of tax credits received with interest and a 20 percent penalty. 6 For KSDZ employers with a portion of their business not within the KSDZ, a tax liability apportionment formula is applied based on property within the KSDZ, payroll and compensation Hits: 7
Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf Policy Analyst Center for State Tax Policy Tax Foundation kloughead@taxfoundation.org PENNSYLVANIA’S TAX CODE CONTAINS MULTIPLE BARRIERS TO BUSINESS TAX COMPETITIVENESS STATE  Uncompetitive treatment of NOLs  Room for improvement in treatment of capital investment  High Corporate tax base differs from state income tax base  Localities rely on local gross receipts taxes (GRTs), including Mercantile and Business Privilege Taxes  Localities levy antiquated Occupation Taxes and Local Services Taxes PENNSYLVANIA'S TREATMENT OF NET OPERATING LOSSES IS Hits: 7
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf schools closed for two weeks March 18 First PA death from COVID-19 declared March 23 PA non-life-sustaining businesses closed April 1 Stay-at-home orders all counties April 9 PA schools closed remainder of year May 8-29 Local Governments 2.4 Federal UC Payments 13.9 Healthcare Providers 1.9 SNAP 0.3 Educational Institutions 0.5 Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 Total $78.0 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.8 Hits: 7
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf to 1 This research brief does not consider provisions that provide support to state and local governments, hospitals, colleges, small businesses and non-profits. For those provisions, the IFO estimates the following impacts: $32.2 billion to small businesses through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP); $18.4 billion of general aid to state and local governments; $2.6 billion Hits: 7
MER-2014-07.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 0%. Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Value for 2014.2 is 4.0%. Corporate Pro Ðits The Hits: 7
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 7
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf denied solely due to a lack of available credits.  Evidence that the applicant is registered to do business in Pennsylvania.  Evidence that the applicant has a valid state tax ID number.  Evidence that all personal service corporations or that will be engaged by the applicant are incorporated, or formed in Pennsylvania, or have registered to do business in Penn- sylvania or are in the process of obtaining a Certificate of Authority.  A completed FPTC application form.  A Hits: 6
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf Ben Franklin Technology Development 25,034 Local Government Capital Project Loan 1,100 Machinery and Equipment Loan 48,600 Minority Business Development 2,590 Municipalities Financial Recovery 7,806 Small Business First 34,456 Conservation & Natural Resources Keystone Recreation, Park & Cons. 250,921 Corrections - Criminal Justice Manufacturing Fund 104,616 Drug Hits: 6
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf Oct Solid collections Pre-COVID 19 FPUC ends $11 billion economic impact payments start FPUC, PUA and PPP non-essential business closures most PA businesses able to reopen (limited) PUA and extended benefits run thru Dec Year-over-Year Growth Can growth maintain without supports Hits: 6
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf seniors by major tax type. For this purpose, the IFO did not consider indirect taxes that are levied on a business and passed through to shareholders, workers or consumers (e.g., corporate net income, insurance premiums and bank shares), mid-sized not clear how much of the property tax is passed through to renters. Moreover, the analysis did not assume that businesses pass property taxes through to final consumers, when in fact some portion would be effectively borne by senior consumers. For Hits: 6
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf greatly reduce the potential labor force.  Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. Generation X or Baby Bust: Born 1965 to 1984.  Unusual exits from labor force.  Changing attitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt? Generation 84 85-89 90-95 95+ 0.9% Gen Z 11.3% Generation Y (Millennials) 25.8% Generation X (Baby Bust) 24.5% Baby Boom 26.7% Silent Gen 10.7% Average retirement: 64 (male) 62 (female) Note: thousands of residents Hits: 6
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf 18% Sales and Use 20% to 26% Property 30% to 35% Notes: Sales tax figures include amounts passed through from business. Property tax figures represent all property taxes. Working age is age 20 to 64. Adult population is age 20 or 4% 14.2% All Government 13.3% 13.0% 11.8% Healthcare-Social 12.8% 14.7% 17.0% Professional-Business 10.0% 12.2% 13.5% Leisure-Hospitality 7.8% 8.6% 9.5% Transportation-Utility 3.8% 4.2% Hits: 6
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 2 -- 42 38 34 13 40 % Licenses that pass inspection -- 100% 90% 95% 97% 95% % LIS issued w/n 15 business days 3 -- -- 36% 49% 52% 65% % POC accepted/rejected w/n 10 business days 4 -- -- -- 52% 75% 50% % Complaints requiring investigation 75% 60% 64% 61% 32% 60% Fines assessed ($000s) $150 $160 $57 Hits: 6
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf Background on school district property tax and potential replacement revenues. 3. Implications for various groups: schools, homeowners, renters, individuals and businesses. 19.May.2017 Today’s Presentation 3 SB 76 of 2013 (IFO analysis on website).  Eliminates school district property reduce or eliminate school property taxes by millage rate reductions.  Replacement revenues derived from higher local earned income or business taxes (mercantile or business privilege). Other variations.  Some local option proposals have included local personal income taxes or county- Hits: 6
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf schools closed for two weeks March 18 First PA death from COVID-19 declared March 23 PA non-life-sustaining businesses closed April 1 Stay-at-home orders all counties April 9 PA schools closed remainder of year May 8-29 Local Governments 2.4 Federal UC Payments 14.7 Healthcare Providers 2.1 SNAP 0.4 Educational Institutions 0.5 Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 Total $78.7 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.5 Hits: 6
NewsStand_2019_July.pdf growth and outperformed the following border states: Delaware (3.4%), New Jersey (3.2%) and New York (1.7%). Nonemployer Businesses Expand in 2017 The number of Pennsylvania nonemployer businesses grew by 2.1% in 2017 according to a new data release from the U.S. Census Bureau. Nonemployer establishments Hits: 6
MER-2015-02.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 6
MER-2013-12.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, busi- ness and transfer income. Includes any inflationary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 6
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf 2023 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs End Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs End 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Payments to Individuals or Businesses State Unemployment Compensation $5.2 $0.8 -- -- $6.0 Federal Pandemic Unemployment Comp (FPUC) 16.2 8.8 $0.1 10.0 BFTDA - Venture Investment 6.5 3.0 8.5 6.5 16.0 13.5 Office of International Business Development 6.0 5.6 5.1 5.3 6.0 6.2 Life Sciences Greenhouses 3.0 3.0 Hits: 6
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf relative level of corporate profits will vary across state economies simply due to different levels of pass-through versus corporate business activity. Second, the composition of industries will also vary across states, and those industries will have different levels of profitability the state economy tend to have higher margins of profit. 3 Two exceptions are noted: New Hampshire includes the state business enterprise tax and Delaware includes miscellaneous corporate fees. IFO | APRIL 2018 5 Table 2: Corporate Net Income Tax Comparisons FY Hits: 6
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 6
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf are utilized to reduce personal income tax liabilities (79.3 percent). This implies that the REAP Tax Credit benefits small businesses. ▪ Available research generally concludes that incentives (e.g., tax credits and grants) combined with regulatory compliance efforts are the most impact of the agriculture industry. 2 A project sponsor (generally a bank or lending institution but may also be a business or family trust) provides funding for the implementation of an eligible BMP project when the farmer/landowner is unable to Hits: 5
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf application package that includes the following: ▪ A $300 non-refundable application fee. ▪ Evidence that the applicant is registered to do business in Pennsylvania and has a valid state tax identification number. ▪ Documentation that all personal service corporations or pass-through entities engaged by the ap- plicant are incorporated, or formed in Pennsylvania, or are registered to do business in Pennsylva- nia. ▪ Completed EEEP Tax Credit Application, Budget Top Sheet listing the projected concert rehearsal and tour expenses and Hits: 5
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf are compared to state personal income. State personal income is the summation of all sources of income such as wages, business income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, employer contributions to pension and health plans, unemployment compensation and transfer income (e.g., Social For some states, significant tax revenue is remitted by non-residents, such as sales taxes due to tourism. 5 Many business taxes, such as the corporate net income tax, are also shifted to consumers and shareholders who reside in other states Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf error. Most of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents and dividends. Data for tax year 2016 show actual declines in all of those income sources or -3.8% of actual General Fund revenues. 1 The entire shortfall was attributable to reduced economic activity due to business closures and other mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. With the exception of inheritance tax, all major tax Hits: 5
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf seniors by major tax type. For this purpose, the IFO did not consider indirect taxes that are levied on a business and passed through to shareholders, workers or consumers (e.g., corporate net income, insurance premiums and financial institutions), mid-sized not clear how much of the property tax is passed through to renters. Moreover, the analysis did not assume that businesses pass property taxes through to final consumers, when in fact some portion would be effectively borne by senior consumers. Other Hits: 5
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf exceeded inflation (1.4% per annum), which implies real income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts (e.g., SNAP) and retirement income. Income patterns were dramatically impacted by COVID-19 pandemic payments), economic impact payments (EIPs, $11 billion) and lost wage assistance ($2 billion), Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans to certain businesses ($5 billion) and non-profits ($2 billion) and distributions from the Provider Relief Fund ($3 billion) to hospitals and health Hits: 5
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf 600,000, previously $480,050 for the 39.6% bracket).  Allowed a new 20 percent deduction for certain qualified business income.  Repealed itemized deductions except for state and local taxes (SALT) paid (up to $10,000), interest on home on the federal income tax return including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, royalties, pensions, IRAs, taxable Social Security, professional business income (independent contractors, self-employed and sole proprietors) and income from partnerships and S corporations. The sum of these income Hits: 5
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf year beginning in 1985. The reports must be filed with the Public Employee Retirement Commission on or before the last business day of March following each reporting year. The valuation date for the reports must be January 1 of the reporting minimum municipal obligation to the governing body of the - 24 - Funding Requirements. (Cont’d) municipality no later than the last business day in Septem- ber, for use in the municipal budget process. The municipality must appropriate the minimum municipal obligation for Hits: 5
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf investment and gov’t transfer income. • Will savings be sufficient to support longer life spans?  Generation X or Baby Bust: Born 1965 to 1984. • Unusual exits from labor force. • Changing attitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt?  Generation Y thousands of residents 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Gen Y or Millennials 26.0% Gen X or Baby Bust 24.7% Baby Boomers 26.4% Silent Generation 10.6% 0.9% Gen Z 11.4% average retirement: 64 (male Hits: 5
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf coordinating and engaging the whole community including federal and state partners, volunteer organizations involved in disasters, private sector business community and citizens. The agency develops and maintains a comprehensive plan to enhance the commonwealth’s capabilities to prepare for, respond to 5 Louisiana's wireline fee is $0.38 - 1.25 for households and $0.99 - 6.00 for businesses. 6 Mississippi's wireline fees are $1.05 for households and $2.05 for businesses. 8 Oklahoma's wireless fee of $0 Hits: 5
Newsstand_March_2020.pdf State Manufacturing Survey. Responses gath- ered between March 2 and 10 reveal New York manufacturing executives' waning confidence in general busi- ness conditions across a variety of industries in New York State. The current general business conditions index fell 34 points to -21.5. This was the largest one-month drop in the survey’s history Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) are slated to be released at the end of June. Philadelphia Fed Releases Weekly Business Outlook Survey on COVID-19 The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reports on a weekly survey of over 200 businesses in the Third District (Eastern PA-NJ-DE) to track ongoing economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Virus impacts Hits: 5
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf weakness?  Base General Fund growth rate is ~0.0%.  Both economic and technical factors are cause.  Inflation, business spending and consumers. No public presentation.  But will be posted to IFO website. 25.Jan.2017 2 IFO Mid- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2016 Q4 forecast from IHS Economics. 25.Jan.2017 8 U.S. Profits and Business Investment 25.Jan.2017 9 Financial Markets Recover Note: Dividend data for 2016 Q4 is an estimate. Sources: Yahoo Finance Hits: 5
MER-2015-01.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three-month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac- turing firms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any inflationary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign Hits: 5
MER-2014-05.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 5
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf 83.3 -17.2 -7.0 Finance-Real Estate 332.8 309.5 317.7 -23.3 8.2 Professional-Business Services Computer Design 48.1 59.0 71.8 10.9 12.8 Administrative 270.2 268.8 296.5 06 2006-12 2012-18 2000 2018 All Wage Income 3.6% 2.6% 3.2% 58.5% 56.5% Business Income 4.9% 2.4% 3.2% 10.5% 10.8% Interest, Dividends, Rent 2.1% 2.8% 1.6% Hits: 5
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf Tax Foundation  Modernizing PA Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner | Institute for Taxation & Economic Policy  Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office  Pennsylvania demographic, economic and fiscal outlook  Questions for all presenters to be taken at end of session November 14, 2019 2 Economic Development and Business Taxation 30 states perform some form of annual tax credit review  PA is one of 16 “leading” states (Pew Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf 223.9 256.0 32.1 14.3 Professional Services 325.8 354.4 28.6 8.8 Business Services 291.4 314.3 22.9 7.9 Education 227.8 238.4 10.6 4.7 Other Services 252.2 Section 3: Economic Outlook | Page 19 Consumer Trends For FY 2018-19, robust spending by Pennsylvania consumers (and businesses) motivated strong growth in sales and use tax revenues. (See Table 3.4.) The forecast projects more moderate growth for the current Hits: 5
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 5
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf on the Pennsylvania economy and tax revenues. Data from the Social Security Administration show that in 2008, Pennsylvania residents and businesses remitted $29.2 billion in OASDI payments to the federal government. 1 Wage data suggest those payments might increase to also be generated through higher personal income and corporate income tax collections since the additional spending increases the profits of business owners. However, data are not available regarding the average profit margin per dollar of sales for Pennsylvania businesses. If one Hits: 4
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf are compared to state personal income. State personal income is the summation of all sources of income such as wages, business income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, employer contributions to pension and health plans, unemployment compensation and transfer income (e.g., Social is paid by non-residents. For example, states with significant tourism generate substantial sales tax from non-residents. 4 Many business taxes, such as the corporate net income tax, are also shifted to consumers and shareholders who reside in other states Hits: 4
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf to state personal income. State personal income is the summation of all sources of income such as wages, business income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, employer contributions to pension and health plans, unemployment compensation and transfer income (e.g., Social Security, various by non-residents. For example, states with significant tourism generate substantial sales tax from non-residents. 4 Many business taxes, such as the corporate net income tax, are also shifted to consumers and shareholders who reside in other states. 3 Tax Hits: 4
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf to state personal income. State personal income is the summation of all sources of income such as wages, business income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, employer contributions to pension and health plans, unemployment compensation and transfer income (e.g., Social Security, various by non-residents. For example, states with significant tourism generate substantial sales tax from non-residents. 4 Many business taxes, such as the corporate net income tax, are also shifted to consumers and shareholders who reside in other states. 3 Tax Hits: 4
SR2017-03.pdf are compared to state personal income. State personal income is the summation of all sources of income such as wages, business income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, employer contributions to pension and health plans, unemployment compensation and transfer income (e.g., Social be remitted by non-residents. For example, states with significant tourism may generate substantial sales tax from non-residents. Many business taxes, such as the corporate net income tax, may also be shifted to consumers and shareholders who reside in other Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf PPP includes both pass-through entities and C corporations. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Treasury Department, Small Business Administration. Calculations by the IFO. Impact of Business Closures One Year Later May 26, 2021 7 YOY Change (000s) YOY Growth Apr 20 Oct 20 Apr 21 Apr Hits: 4
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf error. Most of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents and dividends. Data for tax year 2016 show actual declines in all of those income sources or -3.8% of actual General Fund revenues. 1 The entire shortfall was attributable to reduced economic activity due to business closures and other mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. With the exception of inheritance tax, all major tax Hits: 4
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf and gov’t transfer income. o Will savings be sufficient to support longer life spans?  Generation X or Baby Bust: Born 1965 to 1984 o Unusual exits from labor force. o Changing attitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt?  Penn State Data Center) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Gen Y or Millennials 26% Gen X or Baby Bust 25% Silent Generation 13% Baby Boomers 28% 12.June.2014 7 PA Demographics: 2010 to 2020 0 200 400 600 Hits: 4
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf state experiments. Median increase ~+10%.  Labor market not fully competitive: minimum wage = (1) higher prices, (2) lower profits, (3) business savings (e.g., reduced turnover). Critical Factor: what would have happened if no change?  Most of the impact is Gains Come From? 65% Higher Prices for All Consumers  Less spending in other sectors of state economy. 20% Reduced Business Profits  Businesses cannot pass all costs forward to consumers. 10% Lower Turnover and Higher Productivity  Greater job satisfaction Hits: 4
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf its citizens through a cleaner environment. The Department will work as a partner with individuals, organizations, governments and businesses to prevent pollution and restore our natural resources. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by DEP are classified into 17 days) -- 2 8 7 2 -- % Well drilling permits processed on time 4 -- 52% 24% 31% 97% 100% Avg. business days to process drilling permit 50 43 75 40 22 18 Avg. business days to process ESCGP 5 78 117 85 66 Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf is a key economic growth metric and is defined as the percentage change in output per hour worked for nonfarm businesses. The WSJ reported that U.S. worker productivity showed strong growth in 2020 after a decade of modest gains. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, lower wage workers were laid off and businesses invested in computer equipment, software and automation technology. These investments, in combination with the reduction in lower wage jobs (which Hits: 4
MER-2014-08.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 4
MER-2014-04.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1%). Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 4
MER-2014-02.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, busi‐ ness and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of Hits: 4
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf Agency. 6 02.May.2017 Economic factors all have negative impact.  Wage growth underperforms despite strong labor market.  Business investment disappoints, but picking up.  Natural gas prices collapsed; lower royalty payments. Technical factors work in same direction.  20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Capital Gains, Rent-Royalties, Dividends Business Profits Wages- Salaries Fiscal Cliff Anticipated Tax Cut Annual Growth Rates, Personal Income Tax 8 02.May.2017 Revenue Forecast Hits: 4
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf 34Testimony of Brian K. Jensen, Ph.D., Executive Director, PA Economy League of Greater Pittsburgh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Testimony of Richard C. Dreyfuss, Business Consultant and Actuary, Senior Fellow, The Commonwealth Foundation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Testimony of Thomas Marks, Deputy Auditor General for Audits, PA Department of who have no pension at all in the private sector. The state could create a turnkey system that allows small businesses to set up savings vehicles for their employees, with simple low‐cost investment options, and with the default being that Hits: 4
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 4
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf claimed in Pennsylvania is subject to apportionment based on a payroll factor. Once approved, DOR will notify the business of the credit amount authorized. The department evaluates applications based on compliance with tax payment and filing obligations and the verification of have ever received an OBMD credit and the total amount of awards was less than $4,000. (Two businesses received a total of $2,160 for 2006 and one business was awarded $1,320 for 2010.) Nationally, there were 6,831 Hits: 3
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf mergers and acquisitions are causing the number of banks to decline in Pennsylvania.  The numbers of both non-depository businesses and securities- related entities have grown each year over the last five years.  The merger of Securities into the 2.9 62.5 9.9 Risk and Insurance Management 13 1.5 12.3 1.9 Diversity, Inclusion & Small Bus. Opp. 13 1.5 1.8 0.3 Metrology 6 0.7 0.7 0.1 Total 850 100.0 Hits: 3
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx trend, mergers and acquisitions are causing the number of banks to decline in Pennsylvania. ▪ The numbers of both non-depository businesses and securities-related entities have grown each year over the last five years. ▪ The merger of Securities into the Department 2.9 62.5 9.9 Risk and Insurance Management 13 1.5 12.3 1.9 Diversity, Inclusion & Small Bus. Opp. 13 1.5 1.8 0.3 Metrology 6 0.7 0.7 0.1 Total 850 100.0 Hits: 3
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf mergers and acquisitions are causing the number of banks to decline in Pennsylvania.  The numbers of both non-depository businesses and securities- related entities have grown each year over the last five years.  The merger of Securities into the 2.9 62.5 9.9 Risk and Insurance Management 13 1.5 12.3 1.9 Diversity, Inclusion & Small Bus. Opp. 13 1.5 1.8 0.3 Metrology 6 0.7 0.7 0.1 Total 850 100.0 Hits: 3
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf fifty states using a common benchmark. Personal income represents the total income of state residents. It includes wages, business income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, contributions to pension and health plans, unemployment compensation, veterans’ benefits and transfer income (e.g., social security for the personal income tax (PIT) and the corporate income tax (CIT). 7 States levy PIT on wages, business income, capital income (e.g., interest, dividends and capital gains), pensions, IRA withdrawals and certain transfer income (e.g., social security, unemployment Hits: 3
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf deduction and repeal personal exemptions 491 438 438 Index tax provisions to chained CPI 134 88 765 New pass-through business deduction -415 -542 -758 Pass-through business loss limits 150 140 114 Expand Child Tax Credit (CTC) and new non-child dependent credit -573 -511 -532 Penn Hits: 3
RTR-2014-07.pdf million (-8.7%) for the month.  Non-tax revenues include one-time transfers of $95 million from the Small Business First Fund, $85 million from the Machinery and Equipment Loan Fund, $30 million from the Volunteer Companies Loan Fund, $8 1.3% 3.6% Capital Stock & Franchise 11.2 -32.5% 11.2 -32.5% -55.3% -47.6% Selective Business Total 9.3 627.3% 9.3 627.3% 35.6% -2.4% Gross Receipts 8.4 192.4% 8 Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf hiring appears to slow in April Final payments for tax year 2021 (Feb to May 2022) up +80% ▪ Dividends, net business profits and capital gains ▪ Stock market was up +32% for year ▪ Early data suggests it is concentrated to top end 2.8 25.0 85.0 Dividends -13.4 21.3 18.0 -2.0 5.0 45.0 Net Business Profits 0.3 3.7 9.6 1.5 4.5 30.0 Interest 6.5 6.7 17.0 Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents and dividends. Data for tax year 2016 show actual declines in all of those income sources, which is percent of actual General Fund revenues. 1 The entire shortfall was attributable to reduced economic activity due to business closures and other mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. With the exception of inheritance tax, all major tax revenue sources Hits: 3
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf In response to a request from the General Assembly, this research brief examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts reduction of 0.25 or 0.50 percentage points. That adjustment reflects economic stress of commercial rental properties and small businesses. 7 Data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that one-quarter of Pennsylvania renters missed their most recent rent Hits: 3
RB-2017-5.pdf which a state economy expands or contracts.  Personal Income The sum of all sources of income such as wages, business income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, employer contributions to pension and health insurance plans, unemployment compensation and transfer income (e.g conditions (at any point in the economic cycle) than states with a flat tax structure. For example, during economic expansions, business profits will generally expand faster than other income sources and those profits will flow disproportionately to upper-income taxpayers, who Hits: 3
RB-2015-04.pdf 1) reduced consumption from workers who lose employment, (2) increased consumption from workers who retain employment, (3) reduced demand from business owners and shareholders due to lower pro Ðits and (4) reduced demand from consumers as higher labor costs are pushed would increase demand for goods and services and the second, third and fourth effects noted above would shift income from business owners and consumers to low‐wage workers. Because low‐wage workers spend a larger share of each dollar they receive Hits: 3
QRE_FY14-15.pdf 4 443.0 Financial Institutions 1 3.3 4.4 271.8 8.4 287.9 Other Selective Business 2 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.0 2.0 Total Consumption Taxes 2,712.9 2,704.0 2,496 10, 2014 Fiscal Analysis The transfers are made from the designated source in the amounts indicated below: Small Business First Fund $95.0 million Machinery and Equipment Loan Fund 85.0 million Volunteer Companies Loan Fund 30.0 million Gaming Control Hits: 3
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx 128 22,355 21,211 21,564 22,487 23,801 24,708 4.3% 3.1% 2.0% Professional & Business Services 14,568 15,154 16,502 17,652 19,629 22,073 24,304 25,819 27,424 27 52 67.79 66.61 69.33 72.85 76.93 79.16 4.5% 4.0% 3.1% Professional & Business Services 31.25 31.64 33.43 34.52 36.35 38.59 40.85 42.16 44.71 45 Hits: 3
PICPA_Presentation.pdf 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Annual Growth Rates, Income Reported on PA Tax Return Capital Gains, Rent-Royalties, Dividends Business Profits Wages- Salaries Anticipated Tax Cut Fiscal Cliff 5-Year Average Annual Revenue Growth June 7, 2017 8 5.7% and retail sector contract.  Total income growth is moderate.  Wage growth slightly weaker than expected, but decent.  Business profits continue to lag.  Limited borrowing by PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to Hits: 3
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf Gasoline consumption down ~10% | ~$1.5 billion spending (redirected)  Excess supply in commercial real estate rental market  Less business travel, accommodation and dry cleaning services New spend patterns, more on-line sales and productivity gains = job loss  Grocery Jul Aug Sep Oct Solid collections Pre-COVID 19 FPUC ends economic impact payments FPUC, PUA and PPP non-essential business closures most PA businesses able to reopen (limited) Year-over-Year Growth State $940 m Note: FPUC is Federal Pandemic Hits: 3
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf of 80,000 commercial motor vehicles (CMVs) annually. This division is also responsible for coordinating vehicle weight enforcement and school bus safety programs. Other divisions supporting this activity include Collision Analysis and Reconstruction Specialists, Drug Recognition Experts and Vehicle Fraud Investigators investigate significant drug trafficking organizations. Interdiction Unit members perform interdictions pertaining to illegal drug shipments along areas of major transport (bus stations, air- ports, rail terminals and water ports). The SHIELD program stands for "Safe Highways Initiative through Effective Law Enforcement Hits: 3
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf PPP includes both pass-through entities and C corporations. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Treasury Department, Small Business Administration. Growth of PA Cash Income Peaks in 2020 Despite COVID June 17, 2021 4 -4.0% -2.0% 0 0% 8.0% 10.0% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 dot com bust great recession COVID transfers housing bubble federal transfers removed Cash Income – all personal income received or realized that can be Hits: 3
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf Gasoline consumption down ~10% | ~$1.5 billion spending (redirected)  Excess supply in commercial real estate rental market  Less business travel, accommodation and dry cleaning services New spend patterns, more on-line sales and productivity gains = job loss  Grocery Aug Sep Oct Nov Solid collections Pre-COVID 19 FPUC ends economic impact payments FPUC, PUA and PPP non-essential business closures most PA businesses able to reopen (limited) Year-over-Year Growth $848 m Note: FPUC is Federal Pandemic Unemployment Hits: 3
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf Projecting the Components of the Act 1 Index Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials March 17, 2021 Statewide School Property Tax Growth Rates 2 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2 in the home: gyms, meal preparation, entertainment, remodels Remote working is here to stay  Impacts restaurants, dry cleaners, formal/business casual clothing sales  Gasoline consumption down 10% for FY 2020-21 Businesses tighten belts  Operations and procurement | travel Hits: 3
NFIB_Presentation.pdf Pennsylvania Fiscal Update National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) December 13, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Who we are. ◦ Established September 2011; 10 staff, but expanding. ◦ Like the Congressional 13 14-15 16-17 18-19 20-21 22-23 Expenditures Net Revenues Dec.13.2017 12 dot com bust housing bust Note: General Fund only. Excludes special and miscellaneous funds. Closing Comments Unclear: Impact of federal tax reform. ◦ 100% Hits: 3
Newsstand_January_2020.pdf Billion per Year on Targeted Tax Breaks A recent article in the Wall Street Journal discusses the benefits of targeted business tax incentives offered by state and local governments. A study conducted by economists at Columbia Business School and Princeton University found that the number of tax incentives has tripled over the last thirty years. The study Hits: 3
NewsStand_2019_May.pdf preliminary). The data show the contraction was largely attributable to general mer- chandise and clothing stores. May 2019 National News Businesses Reduce Pace of Capital Expenditures in 2019 Q1 Based on financial filings by firms in the S&P 500, a May 19 article in the Wall Street Journal found that business spending on factories, equipment and other capital goods (referred to as capital expenditures) rose by 3% in 2019 Q1 (year- Hits: 3
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf and Professional Services strong too. Economics: Job Gains, But Modest Growth Long-Term PA Macro Economic Trends Dot Com Boom/Bust 1996-02 Housing Boom 2002-07 Housing Bust 2007-11 Tepid Recovery 2011-17 Real GDP 2.4% 2.0% 0.6% 1.8% Wages-Salaries 4.7% Hits: 3
MTR-2017-05.pdf increased by 4.0% in 2017 Q1 on a year-over-year basis. 2 A final factor could be weak business spending. Analysts estimate that business purchases may comprise one-third of the PA sales tax base. Unfortunately, state- level business profit or purchases data are Hits: 3
MTR-2016-01.pdf typically the largest generator of jobs for the Pennsylvania economy and comprises 16.4% of total employment. The professional and business services sector (includes administrative and management) expanded by 60,500 payroll jobs (8.6%), and comprises 13.1% of total Wholesale-Retail 868.4 14.9% -26.5 -3.0% Transportation 256.8 4.4% 17.6 7.4% Professional-Business 766.2 13.1% 60.5 8.6% Healthcare 961.3 16.4% 106.8 12.5% Leisure-Hospitality 549 Hits: 3
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf 6.1b General Aid Pennsylvania Cash Income March 31, 2021 6 -$40 -$20 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 wages -$5b business and capital -$8b retirement and savings +$6b income assistance UC +$32b Impact Pay +$11b PPP +$13b other +$3b 2020 Cash in the home: gyms, meal preparation, entertainment, remodels Remote working is here to stay  Impacts restaurants, dry cleaners, formal/business casual clothing sales  Gasoline consumption down 10% for FY 2020-21 Businesses tighten belts  Operations and procurement | travel Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf growth for the construction sector was flat, while the trade and transportation sector (retail and wholesale trade, warehousing, delivery, airlines, bus service) has been negative with stronger contraction at the end of the year as inflation accelerated. For manufacturing, the latest data point shows contraction, but prior months show mixed results. For professional and business services, December data show real growth, while prior months show contraction. Results for the large education and healthcare sector are Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf remote working. Pennsylvania Private Employment Fell 14.6% in 2020 Q2 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Business Employment Dynamics for 2020 Q2. This reports gross private sector job gains and losses due to business expansion or contraction between March and June 2020, the peak of pandemic-related closures. Nationally, gross job losses (-20.4 Hits: 3
MER-2015-06.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three-month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac- turing firms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any inflationary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign Hits: 3
MER-2015-04.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 3
MER-2015-03.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 3
MER-2014-12.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 3
MER-2014-11.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 3
MER-2014-10.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 3
MER-2014-09.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 3
MER-2014-06.pdf single units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of domestic Hits: 3
MER-2014-03.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, busi‐ ness and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of Hits: 3
MER-2014-01.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, busi‐ ness and transfer income. Includes any in Ðlationary gains. 1 Corporate Pro Ðits The year‐over‐year growth rate of Hits: 3
MER-2013-11.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 3
jackson ppt.pdf in any form without prior written consent. • Amid global storm clouds, the US economy will grow at a modest pace. • Business equipment investment and consumer durables, supported by replacement demand, are driving near-term growth. • Strained household finances will limit real 4 Consumption 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 Residential Investment -4.3 -1.7 7.7 16.9 Business Fixed Investment 4.4 8.7 5.3 5.8 Federal Government 4.5 -1.8 -2.5 -3.5 Hits: 3
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf relative to (1) FY 2018-19 (latest pre-pandemic year) and (2) the overall state economy. • Revenue sources tied to business profits or stock markets (i.e, dividends and capital gains) are shaded red and recorded very strong growth due to output or Real GDP increased despite 155,000 fewer payroll jobs. The IFO revenue forecast assumes that the surge in business profits, dividends and capital gains cannot be maintained in FY 2022-23 and will begin to revert to historical levels Hits: 3
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf Institute and the Milken Institute. He has also taught at Northwestern University, the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and Georgetown University. From 2006 to 2009, Dr. Swagel was Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department, where recession, but no growth for CY 2023 Revenues ▪ Inflation boosts stock and home values | capital gains surge in 2021 (+85%) ▪ Business profits far above historical levels ▪ CNIT rate cut reduces revenues by $1.4 billion in FY 27-28 Expenditures ▪ FY Hits: 3
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf is change from prior year. Labor market data are not seasonally adjusted. U.S. Labor Productivity is for All Nonfarm Businesses and is a quarterly annualized rate. State productivity data not published. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S 2020 Q4 Cash Income +8.3% CY 2020 Labor Force -260k 2020 Q4 Home Values +8.0% 2020 Q3 Small Bus Revenue -28% 2020 Q4 Sales Tax +6.9% 2020 Q3-Q4 Credit Card Debt -8.6% 2020 Q2-Q3 Rental Hits: 3
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf service provider. Economic projections are NOT a forecast.  A controlled simulation. Outcomes under “normal” growth.  No booms or busts. No mild recession or slowdown. What if a recession does occur?  November WSJ poll: 15% probability in next year profits appear to rebound. Federal tax reform may have material impact.  Large tax cuts for corporate and pass-through business income.  100% full expensing for 2018 may delay business purchases. November 16, 2017 18 PA Economic Growth Rates 2013 Hits: 3
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Dec 21 Dec 07 IFO forecast Dec 19 Dec 20 financial and housing bust dotcom bust Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Permanent Job Loss, But Some Subsectors Gain March 4, 2022 10 Industry Subsectors Hits: 3
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf 4 PA Economic Negatives Notes Payroll Jobs -460,000 no near term recovery Labor Force -231,000 reasons unclear Small Business Revenue -28% no recovery in 2021 Q1 PA Economic Positives Cash Income (CY 2020) +8.3% highest since 1998 Home in the home: gyms, meal preparation, entertainment, remodels Remote working is here to stay  Impacts restaurants, dry cleaners, formal/business casual clothing sales  Gasoline consumption down 10% for FY 2020-21 Businesses tighten belts  Operations and procurement | travel Hits: 3
2020 PBB Agenda.pdf 9:35 am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Senator Patrick Browne, PBB Chairman 9:35 am – 9:40 am 1. Business of the Board (Election of Chair and Vice Chair) 2. Recognition of Board Designees 3. New Business: Re‐Adopt Operating Rules 9:40 am – 9:45 am Overview of Plan Development Process and Review of Process Changes Hits: 3
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 3
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 3
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 3
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 (2013.1 value is 2.5%) Corporate Profits The year-over- Hits: 3
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 3
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 3
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 3
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf later). Upside Risks • A timely resolution to the ongoing debates over federal fiscal policy could spur consumer confidence and spending. Business firms have compiled significant cash reserves because of economic uncertainty. If the fiscal issues are resolved, those funds could be used to reinvest in the business or hire additional workers. • Strength in the housing sector spills over to the rest of the economy. Increasing sales and Hits: 3
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 3
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any in- flationary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 3
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of man- ufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any inflationary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign Hits: 3
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of man- ufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. Includes any inflationary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign Hits: 3
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf transfer taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA Economic Analysis. Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of US personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions, business and transfer income. In- cludes any inflationary gains. Data are from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Corporate Profits The Hits: 3
2002_drop_report.pdf Chairman Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations accounts is compounded and credited monthly, at the discount rate applicable to 6-month US Treasury Bills, on the last business day of December in the year preceding the year in which the interest is credited.  Compliance and Enforcement 1) Nonconforming Hits: 3
Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf Wyoming do not levy a corporate net income tax. However, Ohio, Texas and Washington levy a gross receipts tax on business activities. Sources: Tax Foundation. Wolters Kluwer CCH IntelliConnect. Table B Corporate Net Operating Loss Deduction Caps by State 1 State Wyoming do not levy a corporate net income tax. However, Ohio, Texas and Washington levy a gross receipts tax on business activities. Sources: Tax Foundation. Wolters Kluwer CCH IntelliConnect. Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-03-10 18:40:59 Creator Hits: 2
RTR-May 2012.pdf 7 39.5% 332.5 17.9% 6.5% 1.9% -3.0% -1.3% 851.2 2.5% Selective Business Total 27.1 -14.5% 1,939.2 5.7% 1.9% 76.0% 31.1% 5.8% 2,080 33.6% 253.1 13.5% 14.3% 36.6% 24.7% -53.3% 271.3 11.4% Other Sel. Business 0.6 -39.7% 6.3 -40.4% -51.9% 49.2% 4.1% -5.0% 9.8 -28.4% Hits: 2
RTR-Mar 2012.pdf 0 22.2% 190.3 6.5% 1.9% -3.0% -1.3% -3.0% 829.8 0.8% Selective Business Total 1,769.7 1.2% 1,815.3 1.9% 76.0% 31.1% 5.8% -2.9% 1 14.2% 252.4 14.3% 36.6% 24.7% -53.3% 12.1% 272.5 12.0% Other Sel. Business 2.6 -60.2% 3.6 -51.9% 49.2% 4.1% -5.0% -12.6% 10.1 -26.5% Hits: 2
RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf 4 -10.2% 302.0 2.2% 6.5% 1.9% -3.0% -1.3% 836.3 2.1% Selective Business Total 44.5 71.2% 214.0 93.1% 1.9% 76.0% 31.1% 5.8% 2,099.0 53.8% 4.9 -0.9% 14.3% 36.6% 24.7% -53.3% 272.4 14.7% Other Sel. Business 0.7 27.9% 4.3 -3.0% -51.9% 49.2% 4.1% -5.0% 10.0 -26.2% Hits: 2
RTR-Feb 2012.pdf 0 -66.2% 182.4 0.0% 1.9% -3.0% -1.3% -3.0% 800.6 -5.1% Selective Business Total 25.2 45.1% 61.2 40.5% 76.0% 31.1% 5.8% -2.9% 1,975.4 14.0% 3.3 10.1% 36.6% 24.7% -53.3% 12.1% 241.2 10.2% Other Sel. Business 0.6 -1.1% 1.6 34.4% 49.2% 4.1% -5.0% -12.6% 14.1 -5.7% Hits: 2
RTR-Apr 2012.pdf 8 8.8% 305.8 7.3% 6.5% 1.9% -3.0% -1.3% 840.8 2.8% Selective Business Total 142.4 168.1% 1,937.3 6.5% 1.9% 76.0% 31.1% 5.8% 2,085 45.8% 252.9 13.6% 14.3% 36.6% 24.7% -53.3% 271.7 11.6% Other Sel. Business 3.1 2.7% 6.3 -38.1% -51.9% 49.2% 4.1% -5.0% 10.2 -22.2% Hits: 2
RTR-2015-04.pdf 15.5% 11.3% Capital Stock & Franchise 37.9 -9.1% 187.6 -30.5% -21.0% -39.2% Selective Business Total 46.0 -31.7% 1,964.7 -1.4% -2.6% -0.6% Gross Receipts 1.5 -68.6% 0.5% -3.8% Financial Institutions 2.7 -46.6% 283.6 2.9% -4.2% 14.0% Other Sel. Business 0.5 -86.5% 3.7 -56.1% -69.1% -55.0% Total Consumption Taxes 936.2 4.0% 8 Hits: 2
RTR-2015-03.pdf 24.1% 9.4% Capital Stock & Franchise 32.8 -31.7% 149.7 -34.4% -22.4% -42.0% Selective Business Total 1,802.1 -1.8% 1,918.7 -0.4% -2.1% 0.7% Gross Receipts 1,195.5 1.6% -5.0% Financial Institutions 252.8 -3.5% 280.9 3.9% -3.5% 16.2% Other Sel. Business 0.9 -43.7% 3.2 -29.5% -28.7% -19.3% Total Consumption Taxes 793.2 1.2% 7 Hits: 2
RTR-2015-02.pdf 13.8% 8.3% Capital Stock & Franchise 5.0 -17.6% 116.9 -35.1% -36.1% -43.5% Selective Business Total 26.7 18.9% 116.6 27.3% 0.3% -1.2% Gross Receipts 2.5 -45.8% 42 1.5% -2.9% Financial Institutions 0.5 774.0% 28.1 236.8% 151.1% -0.7% Other Sel. Business 0.4 -3.2% 2.3 -22.3% -2.3% -21.3% Total Consumption Taxes 746.4 3.4% 7 Hits: 2
RTR-2015-01.pdf 14.6% 8.0% Capital Stock & Franchise 13.7 11.5% 111.9 -35.7% -33.3% -44.3% Selective Business Total 18.8 -36.8% 89.9 30.0% -3.9% -1.2% Gross Receipts 3.7 -55.6% 40 24.6% -2.9% Financial Institutions 0.1 -74.7% 27.6 233.2% 99.1% -1.4% Other Sel. Business 0.2 36.0% 1.9 -25.7% 3.3% -20.8% Total Consumption Taxes 919.6 2.8% 6 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-12.pdf 4.7% 7.6% Capital Stock & Franchise 22.0 -51.4% 98.2 -39.3% -41.5% -46.1% Selective Business Total 15.9 74.8% 71.1 80.2% 66.4% -0.6% Gross Receipts 7.0 21.2% 36 298.3% -1.8% Financial Institutions 7.7 173.9% 27.5 250.2% 137.8% -1.2% Other Sel. Business 0.1 -46.9% 1.6 -30.4% -14.5% -21.6% Total Consumption Taxes 938.0 4.9% 5 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-11.pdf 14.5% 7.0% Capital Stock & Franchise 8.3 -0.5% 76.2 -34.6% -35.7% -47.0% Selective Business Total 8.4 38.4% 55.2 81.9% 81.9% -1.4% Gross Receipts 7.6 52.4% 29 86.0% -1.9% Financial Institutions 0.5 -47.0% 19.9 292.5% 369.0% -4.6% Other Sel. Business 0.1 16.9% 1.6 -29.3% -42.2% -25.8% Total Consumption Taxes 863.4 1.7% 4 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-10.pdf 12.2% 6.8% Capital Stock & Franchise 12.5 -35.9% 67.9 -37.2% -38.0% -47.1% Selective Business Total 9.1 85.6% 46.7 92.8% 63.0% -1.4% Gross Receipts 5.2 57.2% 21 107.0% -2.0% Financial Institutions 3.1 205.3% 19.4 367.2% 359.0% -4.6% Other Sel. Business 0.4 -11.2% 1.4 -31.5% -41.0% -26.0% Total Consumption Taxes 926.2 3.4% 3 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-09.pdf 19.3% 8.0% Capital Stock & Franchise 38.5 -40.3% 55.4 -37.5% -37.5% -47.2% Selective Business Total 21.8 105.1% 37.7 94.6% 94.6% -1.8% Gross Receipts 4.0 -27.2% 16 357.7% -2.1% Financial Institutions 15.4 624.5% 16.3 418.9% 418.9% -5.1% Other Sel. Business 0.5 -57.5% 1.1 -36.8% -36.8% -29.1% Total Consumption Taxes 893.5 5.3% 2 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-08.pdf 6.5% 3.1% Capital Stock & Franchise 5.7 -24.5% 16.9 -30.0% -34.0% -47.1% Selective Business Total 6.6 -11.9% 15.9 81.8% 68.5% -2.3% Gross Receipts 4.2 -13.8% 12 75.8% -2.1% Financial Institutions 0.5 -49.9% 0.9 -12.9% 29.2% -9.4% Other Sel. Business 0.2 -9.3% 0.5 27.7% 17.3% -19.5% Total Consumption Taxes 907.3 2.8% 1 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-06.pdf 1.9% 3.2% Capital Stock & Franchise 48.7 -35.3% 320.2 -46.8% -51.1% -46.8% Selective Business Total 21.7 60.0% 2,075.8 -3.9% 17.0% -3.9% Gross Receipts 16.4 166.3% 36.3% -3.3% Financial Institutions 5.1 41.0% 317.9 -9.6% 292.3% -9.6% Other Sel. Business 0.9 12.2% 9.6 -20.3% -11.2% -20.3% Total Consumption Taxes 1,003.1 8.8% Hits: 2
RTR-2014-05.pdf 1.0% 0.0% Capital Stock & Franchise 1.8 -96.2% 271.5 -48.5% -54.2% -47.2% Selective Business Total 60.8 15.0% 2,054.1 -4.3% -2.9% -5.7% Gross Receipts 6.4 -311.5% 3.1% -5.5% Financial Institutions 37.3 442.5% 312.8 -10.1% -7.2% -9.9% Other Sel. Business 0.2 -86.5% 8.6 -22.7% -24.7% -20.1% Total Consumption Taxes 874.0 -0.2% 9 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-04.pdf 4.8% 3.0% Capital Stock & Franchise 41.7 -37.8% 269.8 -43.9% -42.9% -39.6% Selective Business Total 67.4 9.3% 1,993.2 -4.8% -3.2% -4.9% Gross Receipts 4.8 -59.6% 0.5% -3.2% Financial Institutions 5.1 213.3% 275.5 -19.2% -17.3% -17.1% Other Sel. Business 3.9 15.7% 8.4 -13.0% -8.2% -1.8% Total Consumption Taxes 900.4 4.0% 8 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-03.pdf 17.6% 6.3% Capital Stock & Franchise 48.0 -44.6% 228.1 -44.9% -47.3% -41.8% Selective Business Total 1,834.3 -3.8% 1,925.8 -5.2% -3.4% -8.6% Gross Receipts 1,211.5 2.1% -3.0% Financial Institutions 262.1 -18.0% 270.4 -20.3% -18.4% -17.9% Other Sel. Business 1.5 -42.2% 4.5 -28.5% -33.7% -4.1% Total Consumption Taxes 783.5 -0.1% 7 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-02.pdf 8.6% 4.9% Capital Stock & Franchise 6.1 -56.9% 180.1 -45.0% -53.5% -42.4% Selective Business Total 22.5 24.5% 91.6 -26.9% -6.7% 0.9% Gross Receipts 4.5 4.3% 40 14.6% -3.0% Financial Institutions 0.1 -97.1% 8.3 -58.0% -72.4% 23.1% Other Sel. Business 0.5 12.9% 3.0 -18.6% -47.6% 6.7% Total Consumption Taxes 722.0 -2.4% 6 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-01.pdf 10.1% 5.4% Capital Stock & Franchise 12.3 -51.3% 174.0 -44.4% -50.1% -41.1% Selective Business Total 29.7 7.5% 69.1 -35.5% -12.8% 0.3% Gross Receipts 8.2 77.0% 35 6.3% -4.7% Financial Institutions 0.4 9.6% 8.3 -53.8% -63.7% 24.4% Other Sel. Business 0.2 -15.1% 2.5 -22.5% -64.3% 4.2% Total Consumption Taxes 894.6 2.1% 6 Hits: 2
RTR-2013-12.pdf 5.8% 5.1% Capital Stock & Franchise 45.3 -53.6% 161.7 -43.8% -47.9% -39.0% Selective Business Total 9.1 -54.4% 39.5 -50.4% -35.3% 0.5% Gross Receipts 5.8 -37.7% 27 36.6% -3.2% Financial Institutions 2.8 -70.8% 7.9 -55.2% -59.7% 24.4% Other Sel. Business 0.1 -83.5% 2.3 -23.0% -66.3% 3.2% Total Consumption Taxes 893.9 -1.3% 5 Hits: 2
RTR-2013-11.pdf 2.2% 10.3% Capital Stock & Franchise 8.3 -9.9% 116.4 -38.8% -40.5% -36.8% Selective Business Total 6.1 56.1% 30.3 -49.1% -4.7% 1.3% Gross Receipts 5.0 136.7% 21 53.9% -3.3% Financial Institutions 0.9 -37.1% 5.1 -36.6% -34.4% 30.3% Other Sel. Business 0.1 -7.5% 2.2 1.0% 0.2% 12.5% Total Consumption Taxes 848.8 1.5% 4 Hits: 2
RTR-2013-10.pdf 1.8% 10.6% Capital Stock & Franchise 19.5 -41.8% 108.1 -40.3% -43.7% -36.5% Selective Business Total 4.9 -32.1% 24.2 -56.5% -19.7% 1.1% Gross Receipts 3.3 -36.6% 16 23.3% -3.2% Financial Institutions 1.0 46.2% 4.1 -36.5% -35.8% 30.3% Other Sel. Business 0.4 -58.2% 2.1 1.5% 3.5% 12.7% Total Consumption Taxes 921.6 5.7% 3 Hits: 2
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf not recover from COVID decline Economics ▪ Forecast assumes reversion to “normal” economic growth Revenues ▪ Inflation boosts stock and home values | business profits far above historical levels Expenditures ▪ All FY 22-23 funding increases assumed permanent (e.g., education) ▪ Federal COVID relief CES State and Metro Area Employment. Federal Pandemic Stimulus Monies Largely End January 24, 2023 9 2020 2021 2022 Residents/Businesses $64.6 $58.1 $4.8 State and Federal UC 31.5 16.9 0.1 Economic Impact Payments 11 Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are generally motivated by business profits, capital Independent Fiscal Office | Page 3 gains, rents, interest and dividends. The SUT overprediction (-$236 million) was attributable to non-motor may have been impacted by (1) lack of price inflation due to internet shopping, (2) weaknesses in taxable business purchases (e.g., computers and furniture) and (3) general uncertainty regarding the outcome of the November 2016 election. The overall overprediction error Hits: 2
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf Stronger Income Shifting $49 Stronger Fundamentals $50 Growth Rates for Personal Income Tax Data Fields 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Business Profits 4.6% 6.9% 0.3% 0.5% 12.0% Capital Gains 22.8% 1.5% -11.9% 25 4% Economic factors  Overseas economies. Interest rates. Stock market volatility.  2019 Q1 profits number end of month  Business investment slowdown (WSJ May 19)? May 20, 2019 19 Summary Increase to IFO Official Estimate of +$866 million  Translate Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf 21.9% -1.3% Capital Stock & Franchise 112.3 -6.8% 147.5 -2.9% -2.9% 2.1% Selective Business Total 11.6 -60.4% 48.5 26.6% 26.6% 8.3% Gross Receipts 4.5 -74.8% 36 58.9% 7.4% Financial Institutions 4.0 -57.1% 5.8 -44.9% -44.9% 11.7% Other Sel. Business 0.7 26.1% 1.0 18.3% 18.3% -25.2% Total Consumption Taxes 833.0 -0.9% 2 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf 33.6% 2.6% Capital Stock & Franchise 33.5 6.4% 181.0 -1.3% -0.7% 3.3% Selective Business Total 7.2 -32.4% 55.7 13.8% -36.2% 7.7% Gross Receipts 5.2 -43.3% 41 6.1% 7.5% Financial Institutions 0.7 90.4% 6.5 -40.5% -41.2% 11.9% Other Sel. Business 1.0 103.7% 2.1 49.6% 58.6% -22.2% Total Consumption Taxes 871.8 2.6% 3 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf 40.1% 3.4% Capital Stock & Franchise 9.2 23.6% 190.2 -0.4% -2.8% 4.4% Selective Business Total 3.9 -24.2% 59.6 10.2% -49.6% 7.5% Gross Receipts 2.1 -31.2% 43 39.6% 7.7% Financial Institutions 1.5 -22.7% 8.0 -37.9% -47.0% 11.1% Other Sel. Business 0.1 11.6% 2.2 47.1% 59.9% -21.9% Total Consumption Taxes 836.3 1.2% 4 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf 18.3% 31.0% Capital Stock & Franchise 46.2 25.7% 527.0 -25.3% -39.9% -22.8% Selective Business Total 52.9 95.3% 2,147.0 4.5% 4.3% 5.3% Gross Receipts (3.0) 198.3% 0.2% 3.1% Financial Institutions 6.9 861.5% 347.9 29.2% 29.6% 29.4% Other Sel. Business 1.5 163.5% 11.2 20.0% 19.8% 20.4% Total Consumption Taxes 875.8 4.7% 9 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf 12.1% 13.9% Capital Stock & Franchise 86.7 -46.1% 413.8 -22.5% -33.8% -13.7% Selective Business Total 1,907.2 7.8% 2,032.4 7.8% 7.6% 12.6% Gross Receipts 1,229.2 1.9% 10.2% Financial Institutions 319.5 27.1% 339.4 26.8% 27.5% 26.3% Other Sel. Business 2.6 1.0% 6.3 11.4% -8.8% 5.0% Total Consumption Taxes 784.0 -2.4% 7 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf 6.6% 19.9% Capital Stock & Franchise 75.3 -42.3% 602.2 -28.0% -37.6% -28.0% Selective Business Total 13.6 -69.5% 2,160.6 2.9% -40.1% 2.9% Gross Receipts 6.2 -72.7% 25.8% -2.4% Financial Institutions 3.6 11.8% 351.5 29.0% 147.7% 29.0% Other Sel. Business 0.8 21.5% 12.0 20.1% 31.4% 20.1% Total Consumption Taxes 921.6 2.5% 10 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf 0.9% 18.9% Capital Stock & Franchise 16.7 -10.2% 16.7 -10.2% -25.6% -28.1% Selective Business Total 1.3 -95.3% 1.3 -95.3% -31.3% 0.6% Gross Receipts 2.9 -88.9% 2 58.4% -3.1% Financial Institutions 0.0 -88.4% 0.0 -88.4% 161.4% 28.9% Other Sel. Business 0.2 -18.5% 0.2 -18.5% 71.6% 19.9% Total Consumption Taxes 921.6 2.4% 904 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf 30.3% -5.2% Capital Stock & Franchise 18.6 -6.5% 18.6 -6.5% -3.0% 1.5% Selective Business Total 27.1 555.8% 27.1 555.8% 59.7% 9.3% Gross Receipts 25.8 621.0% 25 180.7% 7.3% Financial Institutions 0.1 2269.3% 0.1 2269.3% 26.4% 14.7% Other Sel. Business 0.2 -4.7% 0.2 -4.7% -13.7% -26.0% Total Consumption Taxes 900.4 6.3% 900 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf 42.8% 12.7% Capital Stock & Franchise 25.2 29.8% 313.1 -13.8% -26.6% -4.2% Selective Business Total 27.6 35.1% 107.2 18.9% 25.0% 7.5% Gross Receipts 4.6 57.6% 57 34.6% 8.4% Financial Institutions 0.4 -15.6% 17.9 14.8% 144.9% 13.9% Other Sel. Business 0.2 -40.2% 3.3 33.7% 12.7% -23.3% Total Consumption Taxes 876.5 -2.0% 6 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf 4 10.5% 179.9 7.6% 1.9% -3.0% -1.3% -3.0% 820.1 -0.8% Selective Business Total 20.4 37.2% 41.2 40.7% 76.0% 31.1% 5.8% -2.9% 1,967.6 363.2% 4.7 67.1% 36.6% 24.7% -53.3% 12.1% 241.3 10.0% Other Sel. Business 0.3 55.7% 1.1 55.9% 49.2% 4.1% -5.0% -12.6% 14.1 -5.0% Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf 41.9% 13.4% Capital Stock & Franchise 14.0 40.8% 327.1 -12.4% -25.0% -1.3% Selective Business Total 18.0 -28.3% 125.2 8.6% 7.2% 6.8% Gross Receipts 4.4 -60.3% 61 12.7% 8.6% Financial Institutions 1.9 311.1% 19.9 23.5% 265.4% 14.5% Other Sel. Business 0.4 -33.6% 3.7 20.4% -5.1% -24.7% Total Consumption Taxes 740.0 2.1% 6 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf 54.3% 11.9% Capital Stock & Franchise 97.7 -36.2% 287.9 -16.3% -26.9% -4.6% Selective Business Total 20.0 28.0% 79.6 14.2% -1.0% 7.5% Gross Receipts 9.3 -25.8% 52 37.2% 7.9% Financial Institutions 9.6 313.2% 17.5 15.8% 157.1% 14.1% Other Sel. Business 0.9 43.6% 3.0 46.1% 66.2% -21.6% Total Consumption Taxes 906.0 1.4% 5 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf 7.3% 19.8% Capital Stock & Franchise 7.5 -54.8% 24.2 -31.3% -40.0% -29.6% Selective Business Total 7.5 -24.2% 8.7 -76.4% -72.6% 0.3% Gross Receipts 4.8 -19.8% 7 91.1% -3.1% Financial Institutions 1.0 -42.1% 1.0 -44.1% -8.3% 28.4% Other Sel. Business 0.3 27.2% 0.4 5.0% 15.5% 20.0% Total Consumption Taxes 921.6 9.3% 1 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf 32.9% -6.6% Capital Stock & Franchise 16.6 43.4% 35.2 11.9% -6.3% 2.2% Selective Business Total 9.8 98.8% 37.0 306.9% 132.2% 9.5% Gross Receipts 6.0 132.7% 31 121.4% 7.4% Financial Institutions 1.7 42.7% 1.8 48.7% 51.9% 14.7% Other Sel. Business 0.2 21.6% 0.4 7.2% 19.6% -25.5% Total Consumption Taxes 843.5 -1.8% 1 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf 13.5% 27.6% Capital Stock & Franchise 67.0 -50.3% 480.8 -28.1% -45.1% -22.9% Selective Business Total 61.6 -56.7% 2,094.1 3.3% 2.6% 3.9% Gross Receipts 12.0 -85.7% 1.2% 4.1% Financial Institutions 1.6 71.1% 341.0 27.0% 27.8% 27.0% Other Sel. Business 3.4 9.8% 9.7 10.8% 2.0% 7.1% Total Consumption Taxes 865.4 -3.1% 8 Hits: 2
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf 2 13.3 13.4 PA Wages 2.6% 3.1% 2.3% 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% PA Business Income 4.0% 3.9% 2.8% 4.3% 5.0% 6.3% Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2013. Sales 2013 2013 Revenue Conference 24 Upside Downside • Quick resolution to federal debt limit and sequestration debates spur consumer confidence and business spending. • Acrimonious debates on federal debt limit and sequestration cause a widespread slowdown. • Strength in housing sector spills over to Hits: 2
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf due to similar pressures. By contrast, real average hourly earnings fell for the manufacturing (-0.8%) and the professional and business service (-1.7%, e.g., lawyers, accountants and building maintenance services) sectors. 1 For example, an analysis by Furman and 1% Construction 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1.5% Manufacturing -0.1% -0.1% -1.1% -0.8% Professional-Business Services -2.8% -4.3% -3.6% -1.7% Growth of Pennsylvania Real Average Hourly Earnings Note: Growth rate is Hits: 2
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf From 2016 to 2018, all Pennsylvania counties recorded personal income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts (e.g., SNAP and veteran’s benefits) and retirement income (e.g., Social Security and in proprietor income (i.e., partnerships, sole proprietors and independent contractors), which may be due to technical issues related to business location versus owner residence. Conversely, the strong growth for Juniata County was driven by robust growth of non-farm proprietor Hits: 2
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf 2015 to 2017, nearly all Pennsylvania counties recorded personal income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts (e.g., SNAP and veteran’s benefits) and retirement income (e.g., Social Security and percent) and Cumberland (1.3 percent). Personal income can be decomposed into three categories: (1) resident earnings (wages, salaries and business income), (2) dividends, interest and rent and (3) transfer receipts and retirement income. For the state, per capita average annual Hits: 2
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf Oldest reach typical retirement age (65) in 2011. • Many now continue to work past age 65. Generation X or Baby Bust: Born 1965 to 1984. • Unusual exits from labor force. What is the cause? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 800 1,000 5.7% 2.4% PA Demographics 2010 Gen Y or Millennials 26.1% Gen X or Baby Bust 24.6% Silent Generation 13.0% Baby Boomers 28.1% thousands of residents 6 3.Dec.2014 PA Demographics: 2010 Hits: 2
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf residents 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Gen Y or Millennials 1985‐2004 26.0% Gen X or Baby Bust 1965‐1984 24.7% Baby Boomers 1946‐1964 26.4% Silent Generation <1946 10.6% 0.9% Gen Z 2005 Salaries & Wages 91.5% 79.5% 60.7% 18.1% Capital Income 1.8% 5.9% 9.9% 18.0% Business Income 4.3% 9.7% 10.2% 6.2% Retirement Income 1.4% 4.7% 19.2% 57.0% All Hits: 2
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf 23 Solid tax revenue growth (+4.2%).  Federal tax cuts continue to flow into economy.  Bolsters consumer and business spending.  Reversal of some income shifts. CNIT base expands.  Other fundamentals are solid (e.g., housing). Weak non- estimated payment in June. Economic risks for FY 2018-19.  Can wage growth stay above 4.0%?  Do businesses continue to spend and invest?  Do corporate profits rebound? Looking Forward May.01.2018 27 Final Estimate June 15 Hits: 2
platt ppt.pdf metropolitan area Personal Income  Income received by persons from: o Current production (factor payments to labor and capital) o Business and government transfers 5 www.bea.gov Components of Personal Income ▪ Earnings (Place of Work)  Compensation (Place of Work  Plus: Adjustment for residence  Equals: Net Earnings (Place of Residence) ▪ Dividends, interest and rent (property income) ▪ Government and business transfers  Including Social Security, UI, Medicare/Medicaid, workers’ compensation benefits 6 www.bea.gov Component Shares of Personal Income Hits: 2
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf 50 55 60 65 70 75 Baby Boomers born 1946-64 2015 Snapshot +42% growth +80% increase Gen X Baby Bust -27% decrease U.S. Life Expectancy 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 Senior Income 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Social Security DB-DC Pensions Interest - Dividends IRA Withdrawls Wages Business Income 2006 2014 May 24, 2017 14 The “Three Legged Stool” is now a chair. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Includes Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_11_2023.pdf or surrendered to the department since 2017 | an additional 43 market conduct examinations resulted in violations More insurance companies do business in PA, but fewer domiciled here ▪ Companies doing business in the Commonwealth increased by 1.2%, but domestic companies decreased by 9.5% ▪ PID is lead state agency for Hits: 2
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf 0 Acres of forest mortality (000s) 1 35.0 19.8 155.3 1.7 6.7 -- Notes: Data for business activity are by fiscal year. 2017 is FY 2017-18. Forest acreage per ranger calculated by the IFO. 1 See Notes on Measures. Performance Measures for State Forests Business Activity State Forests | Page 15 State Benchmarks The table below compares acreage of state- or locally-owned forest land available Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia compares unemployment rates in metropolitan sta- tistical areas (MSAs) across the past three business cycles and explores factors that increase cyclical sensitivity. While national and state unemployment rates have reached historic lows, regional labor cal sensitivity of metro area employment and finds that all of Pennsylvania’s MSAs are relatively less sensitive to the business cycle than the national average. The Pennsylvania MSA least responsive to an economic down- turn is State College due to Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_October.pdf economy recorded robust growth for the third quarter of 2018. Based on non-motor sales tax collections, taxable consumer and business spending increased 8.3% compared to the prior year. The comparable figure for motor vehicle sales tax was 9.9% 900 in 2017 and 50,000 for 2016. Finally, tax remit- tances based on the taxable income of pass-through businesses (i.e., S corporations, partnerships and sole proprie- tors) increased by 14.3% in the third quarter. Official government statistics Hits: 2
MTR-2016-06.pdf in millions. ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INCREASES In recent months, U.S. economic uncertainty has increased due to weak job growth, tepid business investment and pressure on corporate profits. Those economic indicators can be used to assess the probability of a recession (i Financial Institutions 3.0 10.3 5.1 330.0 294.1 317.9 -70.9 12.2 Other Sel. Business 0.9 0.3 0.9 4.5 4.3 9.6 242.7 5.2 Total Consumption Taxes 1 Hits: 2
MTR-2016-04.pdf over-year basis. The Commonwealth levies a tax of 1.0% on the final transaction price of all home and business sales. This realty transfer tax also provides a real-time measure of the state of the housing market, though there Financial Institution 2.1 2.7 5.1 326.9 283.6 275.5 -23.8 15.3 Other Sel. Business 0.1 0.5 3.9 3.2 3.7 8.4 -86.0 -14.4 Total Consumption Taxes 952 Hits: 2
MTR-2016-03.pdf data for 2015 Q4. 1 Personal Income is a broad measure that includes all types of income such as wages, business profits, Social Security, pensions, dividends, rent, interest and various disability and income security benefits. 2 For 2015, Pennsylvania Personal Income Financial Institutions 288.8 252.8 262.1 324.8 280.9 270.4 14.2 15.6 Other Sel. Business 0.9 0.9 1.5 3.1 3.2 4.5 4.2 -2.4 Total Consumption Taxes 849 Hits: 2
MRU-2020-3.pdf The outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, the corresponding business closures and other mitigation efforts had a significant impact on March 2020 revenue collections. Compared to the monthly projections released on April 8 and will include the revenue outlook under two potential scenarios that are based on the duration of business closures in Pennsylvania. If you would like to be notified when the report is released, please visit www.ifo.state Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf tax revenues, with an estimated shortfall of $526 million. Other revenue sources including amusement tax (-25%), parking revenue (-20%) and business tax (-20%) are projected to record the largest percentage declines. Across the six regions of the state outlined in the sales increased by 17.7% from April, a stronger than expected recovery as many states began to reopen non-essential businesses. All retail categories recorded an increase in spending from April, notably clothing stores (188%), motor vehicle and parts dealers (44 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf monthly data continue to show solid gains in payroll employment and relatively strong (though diminishing) desire for new hires by businesses. If net hiring (i.e., change in payroll jobs) continues, even at a moderate pace, then that would be a reliable indicator that the state economy has likely not entered into recession. (The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and Hits: 2
Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf Exempt Taxable Exempt Taxable Exempt Exempt Exempt Exempt Total Taxable 14 39 2 37 7 4 4 4 Source: State Business Tax Climate Index, Tax Foundation, 2019. Table 4 Sales Tax Base Medical Landscape Repair Real Estate Parking Dry Clean Fitness Exempt Exempt Total Taxable 3 20 24 1 17 24 22 5 6 Table 4 Sales Tax Base Source: State Business Tax Climate Index, Tax Foundation, 2019. Income Other All Tax Federal Net Return State Rank Tax Taxes Receipts Spending Return Hits: 2
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf 20% to 24% Property (homeowners) 29% to 34% Note: Working age is age 20 to 64. Sales tax figures assume businesses pass tax to consumers. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey), PA Department of Education, PA Department of Revenue 9 Share of Income for Age 65+ Income Source 2006 2015 AAGR Wages-Salaries 14.5% 18.0% 8.4% Business-Rent-Royalty 10.2% 11.3% 7.0% Interest and Dividends 16.3% 9.2% -0.6% IRA Withdrawals 5 Hits: 2
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf The analysis assumes that all of the diesel fuel tax cut and 10% of the gasoline tax cut flows to businesses, while the rest flows to consumers. The gasoline and diesel fuel tax cuts were input separately into the REMI model Tax Agreement (IFTA). January 20, 2023 Page 5 2023-27 2028-32 Consumer Tax Cut (see notes) -$1,008 -$964 Business Tax Cut (see notes) -$686 -$704 Gross Domestic Product $1,978 $2,069 Personal Income $1,350 $1,123 Wages Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf for the Decennial Census ▪ Little change | potential workforce still contracts ▪ COVID: ~30,000 excess deaths in 2020 + 2021 | small baby bust 2021 ▪ No longer-term impacts Economics jobs and inflation ▪ Will workers return? | impact of general price and asset inflation ▪ Does 10.4% beginning to decelerate slightly Inheritance 20.9% strong stock and housing markets PIT - Non-Withheld 17.7% small business profits and capital gains All Taxes 14.9% Note: YOY is year-over-year. Growth rates adjusted to reverse for Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf market made a rapid recovery from the initial shock of 1.13 million payroll job losses (excludes self-employed) as businesses reopened and partially resumed normal opera- tions. Since then, the state economy has continued to generate jobs and unemployment rates included in nominal GDP. Relevant factors include highly inflated asset values (stock market and home values), unusually high consumer and business spending due to temporary federal stimulus, changes to consumer spending patterns and record-breaking levels of profit. 7 The revenue Hits: 2
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf 2020 8 2006 Share 2018 Share AAGR Wages-Salaries $248.0 59.8% $348.1 58.0% 2.9% Net Business Income $41.2 9.9% $58.7 9.8% 3.0% Capital Income $52.1 12.6% $67.6 11 9 100.0% $599.8 100.0% 3.1% Notes: Billions of dollars. AAGR is average annual growth rate. Net Business Income includes sole proprietors, partnerships and S corporations. Capital income includes capital gains, interest and dividends, rent and royalties. Retirement Hits: 2
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf 11 -9.1 -8.1 -3.6 Financial-Real Estate -3 -3 -3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 Professional Business -81 -78 -59 -9.9 -9.6 -7.2 Education -42 -39 -12 -16.1 -16.2 -5.9 Healthcare misc. transfers and due dates. PA Consumer Spending Holds Up Despite Strain August 19, 2020 8 tracktherecovery.org PA Small Business Revenue Begins to Falter August 19, 2020 9 tracktherecovery.org Note: Transportation includes retail and wholesale trade CreationDate: 2020-08- Hits: 2
DotPlotData.xlsx change the results of the dot plot. 2. The number of students is the student enrollment as of the first business day in October and excludes students being educated at other LEAs, such as a charter school. The data are from number of district students from families with low income divided by the total district student enrollment as of the first business day in October. The data are from source "D" listed above. Data for Alternative Dot Plot General Methodology The data Hits: 2
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf 1 The burden measure represents a county-wide average and reflects all property taxes paid by homeowners, renters, landlords and business owners. Property taxes include current-year and delinquent school district, county and municipal taxes. 2 This amount does not account property tax data are from PDE and DCED and reflect average property tax burdens for all county residents: homeowners, renters, business owners and landlords. Due to the different data sources and the inclusion of other property taxpayers, property tax burden results Hits: 2
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf  Direct: higher dividends and capitals gains.  Indirect: new spending becomes taxable income for others.  Some shifting of business profits out of 2017 to 2018. 29.Jan.2018 13 Personal Income and Sales Tax Detail Mid-Year Update Taxation U.S. debt.  Can now flow out as dividends, buybacks, wages and investment. Some gains from migration to corporate business form.  Significant corporate tax rate reduction.  Large PA rate differential: 9.99 vs. 3.07. Modest negative impact Hits: 2
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf Chairman Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations limits, if any, are high enough to allow sufficient funding. • Earnings in trust or account are not subject to unrelated business income tax (UBIT). • Contributions to the trust are not taxable to employees, and benefit pay- ments from the trust are Hits: 2
2004_srpvffinal.pdf Chairman Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations 5- TAX QUALIFICATION The status of contributions to retirement system accounts for volunteer firefighters have been addressed by the Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996. This Act clarified the tax status of “length of service awards’” to “bona fide volunteers Hits: 2
Pensions the State Treasurer, the Public School Employees' Retirement System and the State Employees' Retirement System of investments in companies doing business in the nations of Iran and Sudan, and mandating the reimbursement of the affected public funds for investment losses incurred expanded the number of active members eligible for the creditable leave of absence to include up to fourteen full-time business agents appointed by an employee organization that represents correction officers employed by State correctional institutions, and limited the duration of Hits: 2
Independent Fiscal Office Other March 16, 2023 Director Knittel gave an Economic and Act 1 Index update at the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO) Annual Conference. ... (Full Report) Economic Update Economics and Other March 13, 2023 Director Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Chamber of Business and Industry. ... (Full Report) Emergency Rental Assistance Ends Economics and Other March 06, 2023 The IFO posted a third research Hits: 2
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf 24, 2022 8 #4 Educational Tax Credits 19 states offer tax credit for private education ▪ Most offer to individuals and businesses | 10 provide a 100% credit ▪ PA tax credit amount ($280m) 2 nd highest after Florida ($874m) ▪ Nearly all allow 5- Hits: 1
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf state offers a tax rebate. Eight states limit the incentive based on annual production to encourage start-ups and local busi- nesses. Table 3.1 provides a comparison of brewers’ incentives across the 12 states. Most incentives are based on annual Hits: 1
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf return and the majority (83.4 percent) reported adjusted gross income under $100,000. • Over 1.1 million filers reported business income on Schedule C, partnership income or a distribution from an S corporation. Many filers report income from two or Hits: 1
Senate_Maj_Policy_Comm_April_13_2021.pdf employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. April 13, 2021 Leisure-Hospitality Small Business Revenues Down 55% April 13, 2021 4 tracktherecovery.org Consumer Spending on Restaurant-Hotels Continues to Lag April 13, 2021 Hits: 1
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf 31 percent)  Savings (14 percent)  Auto or other major purchases (9 percent)  College expenses (7 percent)  Business or investment (6 percent) Note that the percentages total more than 100 because the borrower may have used the proceeds Hits: 1
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf Statistics’ (BLS) Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS). The OEWS produces employment and wage estimates based on a survey of business establishments (employ- ers) for both wage and salary workers in nonfarm establishments by occupation. It excludes self-employed, owners and Hits: 1
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf Economic Inquiry (April 2021). 7 Yu et al. “Evidence of the Unintended Labor Scheduling Implications of the Minimum Wage,” Harvard Business Review (June 2021). Minimum Wage | Page 10 Border County Comparison Many minimum wage studies compare employment trends for border counties Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents and dividends. Data for tax year 2016 show actual declines in all of those income sources, which is Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents, interest and dividends. Preliminary data for tax year 2016 show actual declines in all of those income sources Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf the baseline growth rate. 1 PIT non-withholding tax revenues are attributable to non-wage income such as business profits, capital gains, interest and dividends. 2010-11 2018-19 AAGR 2019-20 Sales and Use $8.59 $10.46 2.5% Hits: 1
REU-2019-10.pdf for the third quarter (not shown) show similar trends.  U.S. Real GDP growth decelerated slightly due to weak business investment.  Pennsylvania retail sales showed exceptional strength in October. Some analysts believe this may be driven in part by Hits: 1
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf me (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office 5 For details on the estimated number Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf me (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office 3 This figure represents the net amounts Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf me (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director Author: Jesse Bushman Creator: Microsoft® Word 2016 CreationDate: 2019-09- Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf me (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director September 12, 2019 Page 7 Impact on School Districts' Act Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf me (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office 1 See http://www.ifo.state Hits: 1
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf me (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office 1 The analysis also assumes that Hits: 1
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf of workers were laid off or furloughed due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded rapidly due to business re-openings and multiple large federal stimulus programs. 6 The overall population contraction was driven by three factors: (1) a Hits: 1
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf of workers were laid off or furloughed due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded rapidly due to business re-openings and multiple massive federal stimulus programs. Care of Elderly Parents The jobs data from Table 4 show a Hits: 1
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf of workers were laid off or furloughed due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded rapidly due to business re-openings and multiple massive federal stimulus programs. Care of Elderly Parents The jobs data from Table 4 show a Hits: 1
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf exceeded inflation (1.5% per annum), which implies real income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts (e.g., SNAP and veteran’s benefits) and retirement income (e.g., Social Security and Hits: 1
QRR_2016Q1.pdf 5.4 Financial Institutions 290.1 297.3 -7.2 324.8 311.5 13.3 Other Selective Business 1 -0.6 1.7 -2.3 5.0 3.2 1.8 Total Consumption Taxes 2,574.3 2,547.7 Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q4.pdf 3.7 Financial Institutions 20.5 9.2 11.3 34.7 14.2 20.5 Other Selective Business a 3.0 0.6 2.4 5.6 1.5 4.1 Total Consumption Taxes 2,806.3 2,791.7 Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q3.pdf 0.8 Financial Institutions 14.2 5.0 9.2 14.2 5.0 9.2 Other Selective Business 1 2.6 0.9 1.7 2.6 0.9 1.7 Total Consumption Taxes 2,814.1 2,824.3 Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q2.pdf 11.3 Financial Institutions 13.2 8.4 4.8 294.1 287.9 6.2 Other Selective Business a -11.4 1.0 -12.4 15.5 2.0 13.5 Total Consumption Taxes 2,838.4 2,861.9 Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q1.pdf 10.0 Financial Institutions 253.4 271.8 -18.4 280.9 279.5 1.4 Other Selective Business a -5.8 0.2 -6.0 26.9 1.0 25.9 Total Consumption Taxes 2,459.2 2,496.9 Hits: 1
QRR_2014Q4.pdf 0.6 Financial Institutions 11.2 4.4 6.8 27.5 7.7 19.8 Other Selective Business a 28.4 0.4 28.0 32.7 0.8 31.9 Total Consumption Taxes 2,727.6 2,704.0 Hits: 1
QRR_2014Q2.pdf 57.7 Financial Institutions 47.5 7.5 40.0 317.9 375.2 -57.3 Other Selective Business a -1.0 5.7 -6.7 10.3 12.9 -2.6 Total Consumption Taxes 2,777.5 2,741.1 Hits: 1
QRR_2013Q4.pdf 3.0 Financial Institutions 4.7 7.0 -2.3 7.9 13.0 -5.1 Other Selective Business a 0.2 2.0 -1.8 5.0 3.4 1.6 Total Consumption Taxes 2,638.8 2,672.5 Hits: 1
QRR_2013Q3.pdf 2.7 Financial Institutions 3.1 6.0 -2.9 3.1 6.0 -2.9 Other Selective Business 1 4.8 1.4 3.4 4.8 1.4 3.4 Total Consumption Taxes 2,636.2 2,656.2 Hits: 1
QRE_FY15-16.xlsx 8 58.1 468.0 Financial Institutions 1 5.0 9.2 297.3 12.5 324.0 Other Selective Business 0.9 0.6 1.7 1.1 4.3 Total Consumption Taxes 2,824.3 2,791.7 2 Hits: 1
QRE_FY15-16.pdf 8 58.1 468.0 Financial Institutions 1 5.0 9.2 297.3 12.5 324.0 Other Selective Business 0.9 0.6 1.7 1.1 4.3 Total Consumption Taxes 2,824.3 2.791.7 2 Hits: 1
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf 1 The burden measure represents a county-wide average and reflects all property taxes paid by homeowners, renters, landlords and business owners. Property taxes include current-year and delinquent school district, county and municipal taxes. 2 This amount does not account Hits: 1
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf It should be noted that these percentages do not include any property tax burden that may be passed through from businesses to homeowners in their role as consumers. Table 4 uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau to compare state Hits: 1
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf change from latest value. Savings Are Significant for FY 2014-15. • PA Consumers ~ $3.0 to $3.5 billion. • PA Businesses ~ $1.5 to $2.0 billion (less clear). Forecast Assumes Continuation to FY 2015-16. • OPEC maintains output. But, pullback Hits: 1
Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf to the Town Hall Meeting on Pension Reform Background for the Pension Debate Pennsylvania NewsMedia Association Foundation Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry March 26, 2015  Role of the Independent Fiscal Office.  Snapshots of the major state pension plans Hits: 1
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf Pennsylvania Business Council June 22, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates 2011 Hits: 1
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf The IFO Perspective on State Financial and Demographic Data Presentation at the Annual Conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office March 8, 2018 Today’s Presentation Updates on topics covered in Hits: 1
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf thousands of residents 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Gen Y or Millennials 26.0% Gen X or Baby Bust 24.7% Baby Boomers 26.4% Silent Generation 10.6% 0.9% Gen Z 11.4% average retirement: 64 (male Hits: 1
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf 0 9.3 Transportation-Storage 9.5 8.0 9.5 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 8.6 9.9 Professional-Business 13.9 8.7 11.9 Healthcare-Social 22.6 26.9 25.1 Total Net Jobs 50.0 62 Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf 0 9.3 Transportation-Storage 9.5 8.0 9.5 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 8.6 9.9 Professional-Business 13.9 8.7 11.9 Healthcare-Social 22.6 26.9 25.1 Total Net Jobs 50.0 62 Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf for 2018 up +15.2%. Sales-Use: consistent strength since November.  Good holiday season and impact of TCJA.  Business spending likely helps (~one-third of tax base). FY 2017-18 Revenue Themes June.12.2018 10 Two Estimates of Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate Hits: 1
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf Stronger Income Shifting $49 Stronger Fundamentals $50 Growth Rates for Personal Income Tax Data Fields 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Business Profits 4.6% 6.9% 0.3% 0.5% 12.0% Capital Gains 22.8% 1.5% -11.9% 25 Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf 7 $35.0 University of PA-Vet. Act. 31.7 -- -- -- -- -- 31.7 State Food Purchase -- 22.7 -- -- -- -- 22.7 Ag. Bus. and Workforce Inv. -- -- -- 4.5 -- -- 4.5 PA Pref. Prg. Trademark Lic. -- -- -- 3.2 -- -- 3.2 Ag. Prep. and Response Hits: 1
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf state. The PCA offers grants to support arts organizations and programs and assist creative entrepreneurs to start and grow their businesses. PCA grants also fund community-based arts projects to help with underutilized or vacant spaces, tourism, beautification, community engagement and Hits: 1
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf efforts. ▪ Since 2018, PASSHE has been working on a system redesign to transform the State System’s edu- cation and business models to expand educational opportunities and improve educational outcomes for all students in a financially sustainable manner. The project includes Hits: 1
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf Life Skills and reentry training. The Department offers 26 vocational programs to inmates, which include programs such as business education, carpentry, electronics and weld- ing. Goals and Outcomes The goal of this activity is to prepare inmates for post-release employment Hits: 1
PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdf 00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Secretary Jen Swails, Office of the Budget 10:05am - 10:10am 1.) Business of the Board (Election of Chair and Vice Chair) 2.) Recognition of Board Designees 10:10am - 10:20am Overview of Hits: 1
PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdf 00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Secretary Jen Swails, Office of the Budget 10:05am - 10:10am 1.) Business of the Board (Election of Chair and Vice Chair) 2.) Recognition of Board Designees 10:10am - 10:20am Overview of Hits: 1
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf the baseline growth rate. 1 PIT non-withholding tax revenues are attributable to non-wage income such as business profits, capital gains, interest and dividends. 2010-11 2018-19 AAGR 2019-20 Sales and Use $8.59 $10.52 2.6% Hits: 1
novak ppt.pdf 1 8.4 N.A. N.A. 2014 3.1 3.5 7.6 7.8 N.A. N.A. Business Outlook Survey Change in activity over the next 6 months -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2001 2003 2005 Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_October.pdf for wage income reported through withholding, with just 1% of this income un- derreported. For comparison, taxpayers filing for cash business or other income without third-party information reporting, misreport approximately 55% of income. The IRS audited just 0.59% of Hits: 1
Newsstand_2019_April.pdf by 3.9%, with two of the larger compo- nents growing by 4.0% (wages and salaries) and 4.3% (business income). For 2018 Q4 only, the respective growth rates were 4.4%, 4.2% and 4.7%. Philadelphia Regional Inflation Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf whole and home sales increased for the sixth consecutive year. These factors produced stronger-than-anticipated revenues for wage, sales, business, property, and real estate transfer taxes. The report also discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_June.pdf unemployment rate for May was 3.8%, its lowest level since April 2000. Due to tight labor market conditions, many business owners claim they are struggling to find qualified employees to fill job openings and report upward pressure on wages and Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf predictor of the actual GDP release. The underlying data show strong growth in U.S. exports and equipment investment by businesses. U.S. Capital Gains Surged in Tax Year 2017 On June 26, the IRS released preliminary data for federal income Hits: 1
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf related positions – 7 states ○ Vaccine Incentives – Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Nevada ○ Food banks and insecurity - 13 states ○ Childcare grants to business, relief to workers and families - 5 states ○ Violence prevention (i.e., domestic, sexual assault, public safety)– 5 states 14 NATIONAL Hits: 1
MTR-2017-07.pdf transfer receipts (17%), dividends, interest and rent (19%). Net earnings include wages and salaries (less social insurance tax contributions) and business profits. Transfer receipts include government assistance to individuals such as Social Security and medical benefits. In the first quarter of Hits: 1
MTR-2016-05.pdf Financial Institution 0.1 0.2 37.3 327.0 283.8 312.8 -31.4 15.2 Other Sel. Business 0.4 0.3 0.2 3.6 4.0 8.6 32.2 -10.9 Total Consumption Taxes 902 Hits: 1
MTR-2016-02.pdf Institutions 12.6 0.5 0.1 36.0 28.1 8.3 2,493.6 28.2 Other Sel. Business 0.2 0.4 0.5 2.2 2.3 3.0 -48.3 -4.9 Total Consumption Taxes 761 Hits: 1
MTR-2015-11.pdf Financial Institution 0.9 0.5 0.9 15.3 19.9 5.1 90.2 -23.1 Other Sel. Business 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.6 2.2 -63.4 12.3 Total Consumption Taxes 872 Hits: 1
MTR-2015-10.pdf Financial Institution 0.1 3.1 1.0 14.3 19.4 4.1 -96.7 -25.9 Other Sel. Business 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.4 2.1 -95.6 18.6 Total Consumption Taxes 975 Hits: 1
MTR-2015-09.pdf Financial Institution 13.6 15.4 2.1 14.2 16.3 3.1 -11.5 -12.6 Other Sel. Business 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.7 75.6 60.1 Total Consumption Taxes 898 Hits: 1
MTR-2015-08.pdf Financial Institution 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 16.8 -32.7 Other Sel. Business 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 194.4 44.2 Total Consumption Taxes 920 Hits: 1
MTR-2015-07.pdf Financial Institution 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 -98.3 -98.3 Other Sel. Business 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 -74.8 -74.8 Total Consumption Taxes 995 Hits: 1
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf and State Pandemic Relief Programs March 31, 2022 5 CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 Total Payments to Individuals and Businesses State Unemployment Compensation $5.2 $0.8 $0.0 $6.0 Fed. Pandemic Unemployment Comp (FPUC) 16.2 8.8 Hits: 1
MRU_2021_03.pdf FYTD overage in quarterly payments (+$145.7 million) will be partially offset by lower annual payments to the extent small business owners made quarterly payments related to forgiven Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans, which are now non-taxable. The due date Hits: 1
MRU_2021_02.pdf 9 percent) more than anticipated. The PIT overage is expected to be partially offset in April to the extent small business owners made quarterly payments related to forgiven PPP loans, which are now non-taxable. Cigarette tax collections exceeded estimate by Hits: 1
MRU-2020-07.pdf total by $154.8 million, or 6.6 percent. Revenues were likely bolstered by pent-up demand from COVID-19 business closures earlier this year and the continued effect of federal economic impact payments and enhanced unemployment compensation benefits. Personal income Hits: 1
MRU-2020-06.pdf motor vehicle (MV) SUT collections ($22.9 million). June MV SUT collections were likely boosted by pent-up demand from business closures in March, April and May. SUT collections for the fiscal year were $726.0 million (-6.3 percent) below Hits: 1
MRU-2020-05.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $502.6 million (-19.3 percent) due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The shortfall is entirely attributable to Hits: 1
MRU-2020-04.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $2.16 billion (-49.8 percent), largely due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The IFO estimates that the shortfall Hits: 1
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf Investment Tax Credit (Act 13) Various changes to the program include: (1) altering the definition of a “rural business,” (2) increasing the annual cap to $6 million and (3) increasing the total amount that may be awarded over the life of Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf consecutive months, then that would be a strong indicator that the state economy has likely entered into recession. (The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf CPI shows inflation from the perspective of purchasers or consumers. Unlike the CPI, the PPI includes sales to governments, other businesses and exports, but excludes imports. The graph below shows year-over-year (YOY) growth rates for the PPI (national), U Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf 19 pandemic, the federal government allowed forbearance on mortgage and student loans for six months (renewable), while many auto loan businesses offered optional forbearance. The New York Federal Reserve Bank reported on the status of borrowers in forbearance for a mortgage Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 15. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle, including recession periods or economic expansions, and is highly correlated with real GDP. Source: The Conference Board. 5. Price Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf dining during the holiday season and is expected to continue into February. Other sectors that added jobs include professional and business services (+12,100, +1.6%), retail trade (+5,600, +1.0%) and arts-entertainment (+500, +0.8%). Monthly Economic Update Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf level remains relatively close to pre-COVID levels, then that is an indicator of slower, stable growth. Currently, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf fuel (-3.1%). These price changes reflect shifting consumer demand for certain goods and supply chain constraints as consumers and businesses respond to the pandemic. For the full calendar year, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased by 0.9%. If food and Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf for multiple federal stimulus packages. Row 4 displays the commensurate increase in Demand Deposits (checking account balances of consumers and businesses) and Currency in Circulation, which also more than doubled. Balances remain at a very high level and can support further Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 15. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle, including recession periods or economic expansions, and is highly correlated with real GDP. Source: The Conference Board. 5. Price Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 15. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle, including recession periods or economic expansions, and is highly correlated with real GDP. Source: The Conference Board. 5. Price Hits: 1
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf from latest value. Gross Savings Are Significant for FY 2014‐15. • PA Consumers ~ $3.0 to $3.5 billion. • PA Businesses ~ $1.5 to $2.0 billion (less clear).  Forecast Assumes a Continuation to FY 2015‐16. • OPEC maintains output Hits: 1
MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office Cc: The Honorable Vincent J. Hughes Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf enter the workforce this summer and fall. For 2021 Q1, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf enter the workforce this summer and fall. For 2021 Q1, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf base, and the IFO has included that impact in the revenue forecast. The office also assumes that some pass through businesses will convert to C corporation status due to the rate cut. If that occurs, it will be a net revenue Hits: 1
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf first six months of 2014, the revisions could prove to be conservative. However, marked improvement in jobs and wages, increased business investment and higher consumption of taxable goods and services would signal more sustainable growth and a better revenue outlook. Author Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf You request that the estimates “be prepared on the basis of assumptions that consider the probable behavioral responses of taxpayers, businesses and other persons and any potential dynamic or macroeconomic impacts in response to the proposed change.” As noted in a Hits: 1
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf Economic Outlook And Property Tax Update Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials November 16, 2021 Two Parts Overview of IFO Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Will workers return? ▪ Does inflation Hits: 1
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf 80.8 -18.1 -7.0 Finance-Real Estate 329.8 313.2 325.2 -16.6 12.0 Professional-Business Services Computer Design 52.0 62.0 72.4 10.0 10.4 Administrative 262.7 274.0 305.9 Hits: 1
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf skills or characteristics: • Possession of a bachelor’s degree or higher with a course of study in economics, finance, mathematics, business or a related field that requires quantitative analysis. Relevant work experience may substitute for a degree in one of the Hits: 1
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf if the related entities were a single corporation. The combined return reflects the net income or loss associated with the business operations of all members of the unitary group, and income is apportioned to the taxing jurisdiction based on the activity Hits: 1
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf in forecast.  Revenues  Asia and Eurozone growth: could be much worse.  Housing market: faster recovery?  Improved business climate?  Expenditures  All funding cuts made for FY 2012-13 not restored.  Medical Assistance expansion?  Department Hits: 1
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf hope you find the information useful. Per office policy, we will plan to post this response to our website three business days after transmittal to your office. If you have any questions regarding the letter, please do not hesitate to contact Hits: 1
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf warm weather “pull forward” of economic activity into February and March. 2. Uncertainty: Europe, election, tax and spending policies. 3. Businesses take wait and see approach. Consumers follow.  Psychology is important. 10.Jul.2012 22 2012 GPNP Conference Summary (continued Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf 2.2 -3.4 -8.5 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2015 2016 Healthcare & Social Leisure & Hospitality Professional & Business All Other Wholesale & Retail Transport & Storage Manufacturing Local Gov't Mining Long Run Growth Rate Discrepancy 11/15/2016 21 Hits: 1
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf is change from prior year. Labor market data are not seasonally adjusted. U.S. Labor Productivity is for All Nonfarm Businesses and is a year-over-year rate. State productivity data not published. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U Hits: 1
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf 8 11.1 10.6 -2.2 Technical and trade schools 1 4.3 3.9 4.2 -0.1 Business schools and computer and mgmt. training 2 2.0 1.7 1.9 0.0 Other schools, instruction and education Hits: 1
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf shopping, less travel, greater automation, more teleworking and reduced production capacity due to the elimination of numerous small businesses. Table 1.5 contains a comparison of year-over-year revenue growth rates for the four-month mitigation period (March to June Hits: 1
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf 20-64 +0.3% Boom Years Real GDP +1.4% Age 20-64 +0.6% Jobs +0.0% Boom and Bust Baby Boom Retires Real GDP +1.7% Jobs +0.7% Age 20-64 -0.3% Revenues Weak Through February February Hits: 1
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf the end of 2013 suggest that conditions are favorable to facilitate stronger growth in the U.S. economy in 2014. Businesses have cash balances available to expand hiring and investment. Households are in better financial shape to increase spending because they Hits: 1
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf 6 ‐0.6 ‐8.1 1.2 6.6 3.5 2.2 6.3 6.6 5.1 Professional‐Business 25.1 20.3 3.6 ‐34.7 15.2 26.8 16.5 15.1 10.5 7.4 Hits: 1
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf Shaded figures represent preliminary data or forecasts. For 2016, U.S. economic growth is subdued due to weak exports and business investment. Domestic corporate profits projected to rebound in 2017 after two consecutive years of decline. Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 Hits: 1
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf Shaded figures represent preliminary data or forecasts. For 2016, U.S. economic growth is subdued due to weak exports and business investment. Domestic corporate profits projected to rebound in 2017 after two consecutive years of decline. Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 Hits: 1
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf two directions: it could work out poorly if can’t-happen-again events like the Great Recession, the dot-com bust, or the 1973-1974 bear market continue to happen or if there is a sustained period of low returns. •Already Hits: 1
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf the implementation of Act 25 of 2011. The request also included an estimate of the impact on residential property and business property taxpayers. This analysis provides a high-level estimate of the potential impact on taxpayers from Act 25 from fiscal Hits: 1
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf effect of such differences is beyond the scope of this analysis. Milliman’s work is prepared solely for the internal business use of the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. To the extent that Milliman's work is not subject to disclosure Mr Hits: 1
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Pandemic Stimulus Monies Largely End January 31, 2023 5 2020 2021 2022 Residents/Businesses $64.8 $57.3 $8.0 State and Federal UC 31.5 16.9 0.1 Economic Impact Payments 11 Hits: 1
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf of dollars. PPP includes both pass-through entities and C corporations. Source: US Department of Labor, US Treasury Department, Small Business Administration and PA Department of Labor. Recent Quarterly Trends for PA Economics January 31, 2022 4 Year-Over-Year Growth Hits: 1
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf month PA labor market  Can it continue to expand at moderate pace?  Does tight labor market/demographics affect business expansion decisions? January 28, 2020 19 CreationDate: 2020-01-28 20:43:40 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate: 2020-01- Hits: 1
2019-Pub-2.pdf Tax Foundation: Modernizing Pennsylvania's Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy: Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2019-11-05 14:52:52 Hits: 1
2002_dbdc_report.pdf Chairman Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Hits: 1
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf A. Consulting Actuary Vice Chairman Mr. A. Carville Foster Retired Legislator Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Mr. William A. Murray Executive Vice President The Packard Press Legislative Appointees Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District Hits: 1
Right-to-Know PA 17105 Email Address: righttoknow@ifo.state.pa.us You should receive a reply to your written request within five business days, pursuant to Section 901 of Act 3 of 2008. Right-to-Know Request Form IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (May 24) The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24 and updated estimates for FY 2022-23. Report:… • (May 23) PA homes sold declines by 20% year-over-year while new listings remain flat. See: https://t.co/tSZq399ckq • (May 23) The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Wednesday, May 24th. The report will contain revisions to the… Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial- Hits: 1
Links Sales • Case-Shiller Home Prices • Consumer Confidence PA Economic Indicators • Labor Force and Employment • Quarterly Personal Income • Gross State Product • Business Outlook, Philadelphia Fed State Government • Department of Labor and Industry • Department of Revenue • General Assembly • Office of the Budget • Office Hits: 1