Budget Impact of 2023 Wage ContractsThis research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers. Tags: brief, budget, contracts, impact, research, wage |
2024 Wage contracts Summary TableThis table provides an up-to-date summary of the recent wage contracts analyzed by the IFO. Additional estimates will be provided after the relevant contract detail has been transmitted to the IFO by the Office of Administration. 05/21/2024 |
Budget Impact of 2023 Wage contractsThis research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers. 08/14/2023 |
PA Population contracts Since 2020The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states. 01/04/2023 |
2019 Wage contracts Summary TableThis table provides an up-to-date summary of the recent wage contracts analyzed by the IFO. Additional estimates will be provided after the relevant contract detail has been transmitted to the IFO by the Office of Administration. 09/27/2021 |
ISSU & PSSU Wage contracts AnalysisPursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the following unions: Independent State Stores Union (ISSU) Pennsylvania Social Services Union (PSSU), Hearing Officers 03/08/2017 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfstatute or local ordinance) and subject to the constitutional proscription against the adoption of laws that impair the obligation of contracts. The extent of those constitutional protections vary significantly from state to state. Under the Public Employee Retirement Commission Act (Act 1, section 17, of the Pennsylvania Constitution provides:No ex post facto law, nor any law impairing the obligation of contracts, or making irrevocable any grant of special privileges or immunities, shall be passed. In Retirement Board of Allegheny County v Hits: 64 |
index.cfmRevenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Energy Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases Economic and Property Tax Update Property Tax October 08, 2024 Fiscal Analyst General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $64 million (+2.0%) compared to May 2023. ... (Full Report) 2024 Wage Contracts Summary Table Wage Contracts May 21, 2024 This table provides an up-to-date summary of the recent wage contracts Hits: 46 |
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdfBlue Cross, Highmark Blue Shield, and various Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs), Preferred Provider Organizations (PPOs), and Medicare Advantage Plans. These contracted health carriers are responsible for the day-to-day administration and payment of the health claims submitted by healthcare providers or retirees and dependents according to the contracted plan provisions. The REHP also pays Medicare Supplemental and Major Medical claims for retirees who are eligible for and covered Hits: 43 |
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this review. Questions and comments can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 39 |
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdfcompany” is defined as a company that meets any of the following criteria: • The company has business operations that involve contracts with or provision of supplies or services to the government of Sudan, companies in which the government of Sudan has related activities or mineral-extraction activities; less than 75% of the company’s revenues or assets linked to Sudan involve contracts with or provision of oil-related or mineral-extracting products or services to the regional government of southern Sudan or Hits: 36 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604- Hits: 35 |
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdfthe fund will be deemed to be an impairment of the contractual right of such member. (2) Any claim of contract impairment shall be brought against the employer of the member for whom contributions were not paid and neither the board provision of law, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court shall have exclusive jurisdiction to do as follows: (1) hear any claim of contract impairment for failure to pay certified contributions; (2) render a declaratory judgment or take such other action as it deems Hits: 35 |
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdfthe minimum funding standard for a municipal pension plan that has defined benefits that are not fully guaranteed through insurance contracts, and section 303 (53 P.S. § 895.303) establishes the minimum funding standard for a municipal pension plan that either has a defined contribution system or has defined benefits that are fully guaranteed through insurance contracts. The procedure to determine the annual financial requirement of a municipal retirement system is also specified in chapter 3 of Hits: 33 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 26, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 32 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst individuals, agencies and organizations that assisted in the pro- duction of this report. Questions and comments can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary............................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction Hits: 32 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 22, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 31 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst individuals, agencies and organizations that assisted in the pro- duction of this report. Questions and comments can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 Hits: 28 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 15, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604- Hits: 28 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 23, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Hits: 25 |
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 24, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Hits: 24 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 23, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Hits: 23 |
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 23 |
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 20, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Hits: 22 |
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdfactively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the current excess demand for labor, the magnitude of the state labor force contraction and the impact of near-term demographic trends on the state labor force through 2025. Labor Demand and Job Openings of 1.3 percentage points (ppts). Since September 2019, the state labor force (i.e., actively employed or seeking employment) contracted by 120,000 workers. For the U.S., the respective figures are 63.2% (September 2019) and 62.3%, a Hits: 22 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B (a Hits: 21 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdfor actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the scope of this issue and identifies potential factors that motivate the contraction of the state labor force since the start of the pandemic. Labor Demand and Job Openings The primary metric used 1.3 percentage points (ppts). The reduction implies that the state labor force (i.e., actively employed or seeking employment) contracted by roughly 130,000 workers. 6 For the U.S., the respective figures were 63.1% (July 2019) and 62 Hits: 20 |
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdfor actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the scope of this issue and identifies potential factors that motivate the contraction of the state labor force since the start of the pandemic. Labor Demand and Job Openings The primary metric used 1.3 percentage points (ppts). The reduction caused the state labor force (i.e., actively employed or seeking employment) to contract by roughly 120,000 residents. 9 For the U.S., the respective figures were 62.9% (May 2019) and 62 Hits: 20 |
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfDraft Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 19 |
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this review. Questions and comments can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 19 |
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 15 |
2002_dbdc_report.pdfdifferences between the DB and DC approaches and thereby facilitate an understanding of each approach, Chart I was compiled to contrast the general characteristics of the DB and DC approaches. However, due to the wide variation in the design and administrative to either a DB or DC plan, including any liability for poor investment performance in a DC plan and possible contract impairment issues.” – House Resolution No. 266 The Commission requested the assistance of the legal staffs of SERS and PSERS in Hits: 15 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 30, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Act 20 of 2019 Hits: 14 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report Hits: 14 |
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdfSERS) • The Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) • The Pennsylvania Municipal Retirement System (PMRS) • County and Municipal Governments The IFO contracts with certified actuaries who work on its behalf to provide (1) input and commentary for the IFO’s official actuarial notes and (2) advice and guidance to the IFO. The IFO currently contracts with two actuarial firms: 1. Milliman: Reviews proposed changes to state pension systems (SERS and PSERS) 2. Foster & Foster: Reviews Hits: 14 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 18, 2020 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations appropriation of $2.34 million for the office. That amount includes $200,000 of dedicated funding for work related to contracted actuarial analysis. Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along Hits: 14 |
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Michaela Miller, Fiscal Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 19, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604- Hits: 14 |
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 13 |
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of Hits: 13 |
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfDraft Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: lmclaughlin@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 13 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 22, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report Hits: 12 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of provided input for this report. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report may be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 12 |
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 22, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Hits: 12 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 26, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Hits: 11 |
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdfDLI Report Cover Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 11 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf2018 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 20, 2018 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.226 million for the office. That amount includes $200,000 for work related to contracted actuarial analysis, and those funds are dedicated to that purpose. A statement that details the actual and projected utilization of Hits: 11 |
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf17, revenues will increase by 4.0 percent per annum. 2 • The Pennsylvania tax base will continue its long-term contraction due to demographic factors. General Fund Expenditure Trends Based on demographic and economic forecasts: • General Fund expenditures will outpace revenues show that net loans to businesses have increased modestly the past two quarters. While non-financial firms endured this credit contraction, they also faced a precipitous drop in sales volume. Firms responded by reducing labor costs and postponing investment to preserve Hits: 11 |
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 8, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B (a Hits: 11 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen provided data or input for this report. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Table of Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Tax Hits: 10 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of is released. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 10 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of provided input to this analysis. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this analysis may be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 Tax and Revenue Hits: 9 |
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf12-17-21 Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Jackson Wilken, IFO Intern (June to August 2021) Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 9 |
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfto public release. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Kathleen Hall, Modeling and Development Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: khall@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 9 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 21, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 9 |
MER-2014-09.pdfas well as many other federal agencies. Over the past decade, the number of federal payroll jobs in Pennsylvania has contracted by roughly 12,000, or ‐1.2 percent per annum. (See table below.) Nearly all of the reduction occurred in the Postal Ser‐ vice, which contracted by 11,900 payroll jobs (‐3.5 percent per annum). The employment contraction for the Postal Service has been steady Hits: 9 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 29, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 9 |
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 5, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604- Hits: 9 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfBudget proposes an appropriation of $2.076 million for the office. That amount includes $200,000 for work related to contracted actuarial analysis, and those funds are dedicated to that purpose. A statement that details the actual and projected utilization of 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 2 (August 2016) • Using Performance Measures in the State Budget (September 2016) • AFSCME Wage Contract Analysis (September 2016) • SEIU Wage Contract Analysis (September 2016) • Actuarial Note Transmittal for A10803 to Senate Bill 1071 (October 2016 Hits: 9 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfBudget proposes an appropriation of $2.076 million for the office. That amount includes $200,000 for work related to contracted actuarial analysis, and those funds are dedicated to that purpose. A statement that details the actual and projected utilization of 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 2 (August 2016) • Using Performance Measures in the State Budget (September 2016) • AFSCME Wage Contract Analysis (September 2016) • SEIU Wage Contract Analysis (September 2016) • Actuarial Note Transmittal for A10803 to Senate Bill 1071 (October 2016 Hits: 9 |
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and comments can be sent to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 8 |
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of Hits: 8 |
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: flill@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 8 |
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 Hits: 8 |
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdffor 2023. Real Average Hourly Earnings Due to inflation, the real value of average hourly earnings for Pennsylvania payroll workers contracted by 3.8% in April 2022 relative to the prior year (see next page). (For the U.S. (not shown in table), real hourly earnings contracted by 2.6%.) In December 2021, real hourly earnings for workers in the leisure-hospitality sector increased by 8.2% Hits: 8 |
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 15, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604- Hits: 8 |
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf19.2 / 24.4) of students attended a school district where less than 30% of students were ED. By contrast, no students in the low-performance group (SPP < 70.0%) attended a school district where less than 30% of students were the question. Independent Fiscal Office Page 21 Question 3: In what year did you last conduct a formal (professionally contracted) system wide (all school/LEA buildings) facilities assessment? (Respondents were given a drop-down of years from 1980 through 2023 and Hits: 8 |
Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 2, 2017 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for each dollar increase in wages. 1 The contract between the Commonwealth and the PDA covering the period July 1, 2012 through June 30, 2016 required the Office of Hits: 7 |
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 7 |
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdfWhat caused the surge in April income tax revenues? ▪ Data suggest much of it is capital gains income ▪ Stock market contraction implies it is temporary What will the Federal Reserve do? ▪ Forecast assumes Fed follows through on recent jawboning ▪ Fed funds Landing (~10%) ▪ No standard definition or time frame ▪ Inflation decelerates quickly towards Fed target | no recession Recession (~30%) ▪ Real GDP contracts | major stock market and housing correction ▪ Jobs stagnate or contract Stagnation or Growth Recession (~60%) ▪ Minimal real growth | continued strong Hits: 7 |
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 20, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Hits: 7 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of or input for this report. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 7 |
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 20, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Hits: 7 |
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 7 |
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdfconfi Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 7 |
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 7 |
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 Hits: 7 |
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this review. Questions and comments can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 7 |
MTR-2017-06.pdfyear. 1 The table below shows the change in Pennsylvania employment for the sectors that recorded the largest gains and contractions in 2016, as well as the change for those sectors in the prior year. The health care sector added the home health care services and services for the elderly and disabled, which have expanded under the Affordable Care Act. In contrast, the manufacturing and mining sectors declined by 8,861 and 8,768 jobs, respectively. For manufacturing, the decline was a Hits: 7 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdfPA Real Average Hourly Earnings Contract, but Some Workers Gain In January 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released December employment and average the Philadelphia CPI-U YOY growth was 6.6%. After adjusting for inflation, real hourly earnings for all private workers contracted by 1.2%. (By comparison, real U.S. hourly earnings contracted by 2.4% using seasonally adjusted data.) The sector Hits: 7 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 8, 2019 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Budget proposes an appropriation of $2.293 million for the office. That amount includes $200,000 for work related to contracted actuarial analysis, and those funds are dedicated to that purpose. A statement that details the actual and projected utilization of Hits: 7 |
House_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 16, 2022 The Honorable Stanley Saylor Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main gender. The data show that the COVID-19 pandemic had a disparate impact on employment by race. The strongest employment contraction was in 2020 Q3, with 632,000 fewer workers employed relative to the same quarter in 2019. For that quarter Hits: 7 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 8, 2021 Dear Chairmen and Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee: Thank Hits: 7 |
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 6 |
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 6 |
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of Hits: 6 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 8, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report Hits: 6 |
PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai Under these changes, those with 20 or more years of service will receive an additional $5,000 in the first contract year. For the remaining contract years, all QAP payments will increase by $2,000. The Office of Administration estimates that Hits: 6 |
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Kathleen Hall, Modeling and Development Analyst II Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 6 |
MTR-2016-01.pdfsector (includes logging) recorded the most dramatic expansion, adding 15,300 payroll jobs (72.4% increase) since 2007. A recent contraction in the coal mining subsector was more than offset by gains in natural gas extraction. The mining sector now comprises hospitality sector (includes food service) also recorded significant gains, adding 49,800 payroll jobs (10.0%). For the sectors that contracted, manufacturing recorded the largest relative and absolute decline, contracting by 91,200 payroll jobs (-13.8%). However, since 2010, the Hits: 6 |
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf18 contains an appropriation of $2.226 million for the office. That amount includes $200,000 for work related to contracted actuarial analysis. Role in the Budget Process The statute creating the IFO outlines several points at which the office is 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 2 (August 2016) • Using Performance Measures in the State Budget (September 2016) • AFSCME Wage Contract Analysis (September 2016) • SEIU Wage Contract Analysis (September 2016) • Actuarial Note Transmittal for A10803 to Senate Bill 1071 (October 2016 Hits: 6 |
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 9, 2024 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 11, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Bryan Cutler care contribution for most union-represented employees was set at $502 effective July 2020 and the biweekly contribution under this contract is also $502, this impact is not included in the analysis. November 11, 2020 Page 2 In order to estimate Hits: 5 |
UFCW_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 25, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 5 |
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 telephone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of Hits: 5 |
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdfOffice Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Contacts: Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director __________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 Hits: 5 |
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 5 |
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 5 |
SEIU_Local_668_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 19, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
SEIU_Local_668_UC_Referees_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 15, 2024 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
SEIU_HCPA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE December 6, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdffor July 1, 2022. The Census Bureau estimates that from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022, the state population contracted by 30,680. (See table.) The contraction was mainly driven by a natural or organic decline (-56,150) as the number of deaths (351,130) exceeded the Hits: 5 |
RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdfnursing home data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) found that U.S. nursing home capacity has contracted since 2019. 1 Data show that Pennsylvania recorded a similar contraction in nursing home facilities (-3.3%) and certified beds (-2.8%). 2 The number of beds per 1,000 Pennsylvanians Hits: 5 |
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 5 |
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 5 |
PSEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE December 14, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 26, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Bryan Cutler the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits that would have been paid without the 1 Unlike most contracts with public safety units, this one-year agreement was achieved through negotiations and was not the product of an interest Hits: 5 |
PLEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 9, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
PDA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE December 7, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 5 |
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 Hits: 5 |
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 Hits: 5 |
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdfmarket ▪ Focus: labor market and demographics ▪ Focus: inflation and wages II Statewide Public School Employment, Payroll and Wages ▪ COVID jobs contraction ▪ Real Average Weekly Wage contracts III Act I Index Outlook ▪ Statewide Average Weekly Wage (SAWW) remains elevated ▪ Significant and sudden jump in Employment Cost Index Hits: 5 |
OPEIU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE December 7, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of our website. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The economic Hits: 5 |
MTR-2016-12.pdfFYTD $13,455 $13,308 $147 Growth 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. STATE GDP CONTRACTS The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for the second quarter economic output (adjusted for inflation), and can be used to evaluate the rate at which a state economy expands or contracts. In Pennsylvania, real GDP declined at an average annual rate of 2.0% in the first half of 2016. The Hits: 5 |
ISSU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE December 6, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of is released. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The economic Hits: 5 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 22, 2022 Dear Chairmen and Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee: Thank and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office - This page intentionally left blank. - List of Hits: 5 |
FOSCEP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 21, 2024 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
FOP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 21, 2024 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdfwill be addressed at end of presentation. Please use chat feature to submit. ▪ More detailed questions can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. ▪ If connection is lost, please wait and we will attempt to re-establish. November 15, 2023 at very high levels, but reversion expected ▪ Treasury collections surge to $680 million in FY 2023-24 Expenditures ▪ New wage contracts built in (effective July 2023) ▪ Expiring FMAP (+) and MA disenrollment savings (-) ▪ Strong growth in Long-Term Living November 15, 2023 Hits: 5 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdfbe addressed at end of each presentation. Please use chat feature to submit. ▪ More detailed questions can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. ▪ If connection is lost, please wait and we will attempt to re-establish. November 15, 2022 Princeton University. November 15, 2022 2 Four Parts and Main Themes Demographics ▪ Working age cohort (age 20-64) continues to contract ▪ Labor force participation rates must increase rapidly to facilitate jobs creation Economics ▪ Simulation assumes no recession, but no growth for Hits: 5 |
CIVEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 26, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
ALES_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 16, 2024 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
AFSCME_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE August 29, 2023 The Honorable Kim L. Ward The Honorable Joanna E. McClinton Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 5 |
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 4 |
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 4 |
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 4 |
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 4 |
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 4 |
TC_2022_Brewers.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 4 |
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 4 |
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Joe Shockey, Fiscal Analyst firms totaled less than $4,000. ▪ The availability of the tax credit is not well-known. None of the stakeholders contacted by the IFO were aware of the credit. This likely contributes to the credit’s underutilization. ▪ The tax credit provides Hits: 4 |
SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai 000 beginning in January 2021. The Office of Administration estimates that this change will cost $3.3 million over the contract term. November 6, 2019 Page 3 There is no impact on the Motor License Fund over the four-year Hits: 4 |
RB_2024_09_County_Income_Patterns.pdfincome, and Medicare and Medicaid benefits included in BEA personal income. Population Growth From 2019 to 2022, Pennsylvania’s population contracted at an average rate of 0.10% per annum. The map below displays outcomes for all counties. Average population growth County) and -1.54% (Greene County). Average annual population gains in the south-central region (+0.34%) were offset by contractions in the northern, central and southwestern regions (-0.23%). County Income Patterns 2019 to 2022 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief Hits: 4 |
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdftypical PA resident is ~41 years old 11 12.May.2016 Economic Impacts 12 12.May.2016 Labor Force May Contract Aging of Workforce Labor Participation Rates Must Increase Composition of Income Changes Jobs Shift to Service Sectors thousands of residents PA Labor Force May Contract 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 first Baby Boomers turn age 65 Hits: 4 |
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 Hits: 4 |
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this review. Questions and comments can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 4 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 26, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report Hits: 4 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 24, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report Hits: 4 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Hits: 4 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 3, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Hits: 4 |
MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 20, 2019 The Honorable Patrick M. Browne Chair, Appropriations Committee Senate of For the purpose of this analysis, the IFO applied the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) ratified contract to all full-time, permanent employees classified as management (except Department of Corrections) or non-represented in the SAP accounting Hits: 4 |
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdfDrilling Down: Subsector Detail May 24, 2023 8 Payroll Jobs (000s) Number Percent Mar 19 Mar 23 Change Change Jobs Contraction Nursing and Residential Care 203 176 -28 -13.5% Full-Service Restaurants 196 182 -14 -7.3 Local Govt (exclude PIT - Withholding 11,666 6.5 7.0 election integrity transfer PIT - Other 4,518 -18.4 large capital gains contraction Inheritance 1,397 -2.2 All Tobacco 824 -10.2 unexpected weakness Realty Transfer 581 -24.6 consistent weakness All Hits: 4 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdfDrilling Down: Subsector Detail May 24, 2023 8 Payroll Jobs (000s) Number Percent Mar 19 Mar 23 Change Change Jobs Contraction Nursing and Residential Care 203 176 -28 -13.5% Full-Service Restaurants 196 182 -14 -7.3 Local Govt (exclude PIT - Withholding 11,666 6.5 7.0 election integrity transfer PIT - Other 4,518 -18.4 large capital gains contraction Inheritance 1,397 -2.2 All Tobacco 824 -10.2 unexpected weakness Realty Transfer 581 -24.6 consistent weakness All Hits: 4 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdfCY 2024 average monthly price through June is $2.07, a 25% decrease from the same period in CY 2023. Contract prices as of June 25, 2024 suggest that the Henry Hub price will average $3.10 from July to December Gas Intelligence and are converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet using Pennsylvania-specific heat content. The analysis disregards hedging contracts and assumes that the average spot price is representative of prices received by producers. 3. Post-production cost estimates are Hits: 4 |
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdfthe Commonwealth for three months: April, August and December 2020. The latest data for December show a year-over-year contraction of 472,000 jobs (-7.7 percent). (Excludes self-employed.) Job losses are concentrated in the retail-wholesale trade, education and food service-accommodation sectors. The second table provides detail for the education sector, subsectors with significant jobs contraction (e.g., clothing stores) and certain subsectors that have expanded. The third table shows the impact from COVID-19 Hits: 4 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdffrom American University. November 15, 2021 2 Key Themes Demographics updated for the Decennial Census ▪ Little change | potential workforce still contracts ▪ COVID: ~30,000 excess deaths in 2020 + 2021 | small baby bust 2021 ▪ No longer-term impacts Economics jobs and inflation 003 13,090 301 87 0.2% 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. PA Labor Force Contraction Continues November 15, 2021 6 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% -300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100 Hits: 4 |
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdfnatural gas, minimum wage March 4, 2022 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure 62.6 Advance CTC begins $600/wk ends Dec 2019 vs Dec 2021 -3.5 ppt, -360k workers Payroll Jobs Contract March 4, 2022 7 Payroll Jobs Contraction (000s) 5,100 5,300 5,500 5,700 5,900 6,100 Hits: 4 |
2002_drop_report.pdfs defined benefit pension plan, elects to extend employment for a period of time that is specified in the DROP contract between the employee and the employer. During the period of extended employment, the employer typically deposits all or a portion accumulated interest at the assigned rate, be separated from employment, be precluded from re-employment during the remainder of the contracted IROP period, and be ineligible to re-enroll in the IROP in the event the former participant is re-employed Hits: 4 |
Contact USIFO - Contact US IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Contact US Address Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Contact Info Hits: 4 |
Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdfOffice of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration for healthcare benefits under the new agreement. The office provided data to support that estimate, which was supplied by a contracted actuary. Based on the data submitted, the projected savings from the higher employee contributions is a reasonable estimate. For the Hits: 3 |
Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdfSocial Security and Medicare taxes, and 1 The agreement between the Commonwealth and the PFBC is only a one-year contract. 2 workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdfOffice of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration for healthcare benefits under the new agreement. The office provided data to support that estimate, which was supplied by a contracted actuary. Based on the data submitted, the projected savings from the higher employee contributions is a reasonable estimate. For the Hits: 3 |
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 27, 2021 The Honorable Jake Corman The Honorable Bryan Cutler President Pro Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us General Findings and Recommendations | Page 2 - This page intentionally left blank. - General Findings and Recommendations Hits: 3 |
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Performance-Based Budget Board and Chairs of Hits: 3 |
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and comments can be sent to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 3 |
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and comments can be sent to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 3 |
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and Hits: 3 |
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 23, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and local taxes Hits: 3 |
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 29, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and local taxes Hits: 3 |
SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 7, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604- Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 27, 2020 The Honorable Karen Boback The Honorable Joseph Petrarca Room 41- within four weeks of the conclusion of the Fiscal Year 2020-21 budget hearings. If this schedule changes, we will contact your office. Child Welfare Program Funding in Pennsylvania For state fiscal year (SFY) 2017-18, child welfare program spending reported Hits: 3 |
RB_2024_06_Revenues_Spending.pdfalso strong due to housing and stock market gains. All Other Tax revenues were largely flat (2%) due to a contraction in cigarette (-41%) and flat realty transfer tax revenues. Non-tax revenues surged due to an increase in Treasury collections FY 2024-25, the Independent Fiscal Office projects revenue growth of 1.1% and inflation of 3.0%, a revenue contraction in real terms. That outcome is attributable to the on-going corporate rate reduction, a partial reversion from unusually high Hits: 3 |
RB_2024_04_Older_Workers.pdfpercentage change for other age cohorts was much smaller. For the age 45-64 cohort, the number of payroll workers contracted (-3.7%), due to the on-going displacement of the large Baby Boom generation by the notably smaller Generation X or actively looking for work) were similar in 2019 and 2023. For the age 45-64 cohort, the age group contraction (-6.7%) exceeded the contraction in number of workers (-3.7%), which suggests an increase in the labor force participation Hits: 3 |
RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdfcalendar year, payroll jobs continued to expand at a solid rate (62,500, +1.0%). However, two sectors recorded notable contractions. The administrative-support sector contracted by 8,800 (-3.0%) payroll jobs, solely due to firms that provide temporary employment services (-15,400). The retail- Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdftotal budget impact of all CBAs that required IFO review in the prior term (2019 to 2023). Historically, once this contract is approved, other CBAs will contain similar provisions. This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if list of collective bargaining agreements the IFO is required to analyze, see the IFO website. Budget Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 For this preliminary estimate, the IFO utilized payroll Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdfhas yet to revert to pre-pandemic employment levels. In June 2020, industry payroll employment (excludes self-employed individuals) had contracted by approximately 30% (-13,800, excludes government entities) compared to December 2019 (see figure). By December 2020, nearly half of 1.04 billion. For CY 2021, total wages grew to $1.05 billion (+1.3%), despite a 13.5% workforce contraction. Based on wage data through June 2022 and employment trends through December 2022, total wages for CY 2022 are projected Hits: 3 |
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdfto pension accounts. However, it does not include capital gains income. Population Growth From 2018 to 2021, Pennsylvania’s population contracted at an average rate of 0.04% per annum. Figure 1 displays outcomes for all counties. Average population growth ranged to a low of -1.41% (Cameron County). Population gains in the southeastern and south central regions were offset by contractions in the northern, central and northwestern regions. County Income Patterns 2018-2021 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Source Hits: 3 |
RB-2016-02.pdfEstablishes areas of up to 130 acres for economic devel‐ opment projects. Projects are Ðinanced through bonds issued by a contracting authority and are paid with speci‐ Ðied state and local tax revenues attributable to the zone. Film Production Tax Credit Established an area of 128 acres for economic develop‐ ment projects. Projects are Ðinanced through bonds is‐ sued by a contracting authority and are paid for by speci‐ Ðied state and local tax revenues attributable to the zone. Independent Fiscal Of Hits: 3 |
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf5 for a list of values for all counties.) While the northern and western regions of the state generally recorded contractions, the southern and southeast regions recorded moderate gains. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2019 Independent Fiscal For counties with strong income growth, all recorded per capita earnings gains that exceeded 5.0 percent per annum. By contrast, all counties reporting weak income growth reported negative earnings growth, with the exception of Cumberland County, where strong population gains Hits: 3 |
PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 2, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Bryan Cutler Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE August 16, 2018 The Honorable Eddie Day Pashinski The Honorable P. Michael Sturla Office Building 414 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representatives Pashinski and Sturla: Your staff recently contacted the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) with a request to update certain tables and graphs that have been published by the Hits: 3 |
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdfpolicy recommendations. Primary duties: Revenue projections: May 1 and June 15. Analyze fiscal impact of state employee wage contracts. Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation. Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters. Five-Year Economic 138 -35,353 -45,064 -45,565 International Migration 29,193 29,791 33,818 34,910 34,678 Other contracting states in 2016: Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi, New York, West Virginia and Wyoming. Note: Amounts do not sum to total, excludes Hits: 3 |
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf3% thousands of residents Population Change by Age Group 8.Jun.2016 13 thousands of residents PA Labor Force May Contract 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 first Baby Boomers turn age 65 possible labor force contraction number turning age 65 number turning age 15 2015 PA Labor Force Participation Rate Age 65+ 18.7% Age 25‐ Hits: 3 |
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf3% thousands of residents Population Change by Age Group 12 May 13, 2016 thousands of residents PA Labor Force May Contract 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 first Baby Boomers turn age 65 possible labor force contraction number turning age 65 number turning age 15 2015 PA Labor Force Participation Rate Age 65+ 18.7% Age 25‐ Hits: 3 |
Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf51. 7/29/2018 4 Sensitivity Analysis Actuaries supplied projections and other data used in the analysis. An IFO-contracted actuary helped shape the request and interpret the data, which was supplied by actuaries for the two major state pension will it be used? 7/29/2018 8 Institutionalized Stress Testing? Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 7/29/2018 9 Contact Information Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate Hits: 3 |
PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 8, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA Hits: 3 |
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this review. Questions and comments can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 3 |
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this review. Questions and comments can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 3 |
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdfOffice Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Contacts: Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 Hits: 3 |
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdfCPI-U +1.3% reversion Longer term average wage growth depends on labor market and inflation +7.0% -7.6% Contraction of Low Wage Jobs Boosts Average Annual Wage 6 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Statewide Wages 4.0% 18 -7% State Education (state system, related) 56 45 -11 -20% Private Schools (K-12) 49 44 -5 -9% Significant Contraction Amusements – Gaming 61 36 -24 -40% Accommodation 58 35 -23 -39% Full-Service Restaurant 195 127 -69 -35% Transit and Hits: 3 |
OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 27, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report Hits: 3 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 6, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report Hits: 3 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf11.5 billion | ~$700 million per week What happens when payments end in July? June 22, 2020 6 Large Contraction of April-May Payroll Jobs June 22, 2020 7 YOY Growth, U.S. YOY Growth, Pennsylvania Feb Mar Apr May and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020 is a forecast by IFO. Profits and Capital Income Contract June 22, 2020 10 Great Recession COVID-19 Pandemic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2019 2020 2021 Net Profits (Pass Through Hits: 3 |
NGIFE-2018.pdfthe 87 percent increase in prices for CY 2017, which counteracts the impact of higher fee revenues. This is in contrast to CY 2015 when the rate increased by 4.0 percentage points largely because of a substantial decline in prices Pa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange ($3.108 for CY 2017). Includes the impact of the annual adjustment for the Hits: 3 |
NewsStand_2019_May.pdf3%). By comparison, total per capita debt for all U.S. consumers increased by 2.4%. Jobs in Retail Sector Contract Significantly Through April 2019 On May 17, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state jobs figures for April For the first four months of the calendar year, the data show that payroll jobs in the retail trade sector contracted at an annualized rate of 12,100 jobs (-1.9%, data are preliminary). The data show the contraction was largely Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-07.pdftwo major snowstorms that occurred in 2016. Another factor in the recent per capita gain is due to Pennsylvania’s contracting population, which provides a temporary boost, but may restrain future economic growth. Since 2012, Pennsylvania personal income has grown at that may influence future personal income growth in Pennsylvania. Due to an increasing number of Baby Boomers retiring and a contracting population, it is possible that Pennsylvania’s growth in per capita personal income could moderate. Another factor is the sectors Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdfthe month of September. Limited inventory, rising prices and high mortgage rates are the main factors that drive a historic contraction in home sales. Pennsylvania housing data show similar trends, as September existing home sales declined 19.1% compared to the could reach its lowest level since 1990, the earliest year the forecasting firm publishes state-level data. The home sales contraction directly impacts the state General Fund through the Realty Transfer Tax (RTT); a 1% tax on the sales price of Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdfLabor Force Participation Contracts as Job Openings Remain Plentiful The latest Wall Street Journal poll of economic forecasters projects a 63% probability for a Participation Rate (LFPR). The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The LFPR contracted to 61.6% and remains well below the pre-pandemic average (62.8%). Higher LFPRs are a positive economic outcome Hits: 3 |
Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdfare preliminary. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. Service Jobs Contract, but Some Subsectors Gain October 6, 2021 4 Number (000s) Change (000s, %) Aug 2019 Aug 2021 Number Percent Jobs Contraction (000s) Full-Service Restaurants 200 170 -30 -15.0% Employment Services (temps) 116 88 -28 -23.9% Nursing and Residential Hits: 3 |
Labor_Market_Update_October_2021.pdfShortfall Expands in September due to Weak Seasonal Hiring Based on the latest data for September 2021, Pennsylvania payroll jobs contracted relative to a no-pandemic scenario, as the computed year-over-year (YOY) change in payroll jobs was -384,800 monthly job losses using non-seasonally adjusted data (retail and wholesale trade, leisure and hospitality), and for those sectors, a contraction is normal due to seasonal patterns as younger or part-time workers return to school. However, the September contraction was Hits: 3 |
ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 13, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdfCY 2023 monthly average price through June is $2.76, a 55% decrease from the same period in CY 2022. Contract prices as of June 26, 2023 suggest that the Henry Hub price will average $2.90 from July to December Bentek Energy and are converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet using Pennsylvania- specific heat content. The analysis disregards hedging contracts and assumes that the average spot price is representative of prices received by producers. 3. Post-production cost estimates are Hits: 3 |
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 20, 2023 The Honorable Seth M. Grove House Appropriations Committee Chairman Pennsylvania into the REMI model. The REMI model is a dynamic economic model that allows the state economy to expand or contract in response to policy or other changes. It allows relative prices to change in response to the tax cut and Hits: 3 |
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf003 13,090 301 87 0.2% 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. PA Labor Force Contraction Continues November 16, 2021 3 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% -300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100 Jan 2020 Unemployment Rate $600/wk ends $300/wkends Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CTC starts Labor Force Contraction Federal programs Childcare Eldercare Home schooling COVID concerns Savings cushion Lifestyle change Early retirements Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed Who Stopped Hits: 3 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 20, 2023 Dear Chairmen and Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee: Thank and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office - This page intentionally left blank. - List of Materials Hits: 3 |
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 28, 2020 The Honorable Stan Saylor Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Grove requested an estimated breakdown of the IFO reviewed wage contracts by department. Please see the attached table. Representative Brown requested property tax burden by county. This project has been undertaken Hits: 3 |
FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 8, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
EPLC-2-19-21.pdfnatural gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure State Education (state system, related) 60 52 -8 -13.9% Private Schools (elementary, secondary) 48 48 0 -0.8% Significant Contraction Full-Service Restaurant 194 124 -70 -35.9% Limited-Service Restaurant 162 136 -27 -16.4% Accommodation 58 35 -23 Hits: 3 |
CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 26, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdfThe Office of Administration provided the IFO with Summary of Changes documents that itemized all material changes contained in the contracts, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summaries reflect all substantive changes. The Office of Administration for healthcare benefits under the new agreements. The office provided data to support that estimate, which was supplied by a contracted actuary. Based on the data submitted, the projected savings from the higher employee contributions is a reasonable estimate. For the Hits: 3 |
ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai Office of Administration provided the IFO with a Summary of Changes document that itemized all material changes contained in the contract, and for the purpose of this analysis, the IFO assumes that summary reflects all substantive changes. The Office of Administration Hits: 3 |
2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdfbe 2.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the prior year. This is due to the notable contraction in market value (-81%), which outpaced the 38% decrease in estimated impact fee collections. The reduction in market value was to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 3 |
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdfdata not seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Labor Force Contraction Continues January 31, 2022 5 Labor Force # Employed + # Unemployed Unemployment Rate # Unemployed / Labor Force Unemployed Actively looked for work in January 31, 2022 7 Change From 2019 (000s) Growth From 2019 Jun 21 Dec 21 Jun 21 Dec 21 Jobs Contraction Employment Services (temps) -27 -33 -23% -34% Full-Service Restaurants -37 -30 -18 -17 Nursing and Residential Care -26 -28 Hits: 3 |
PensionsJuly 5, 2012, Act 133 amended the Municipalities Financial Recovery Act (Act 47 of 1987) to ensure a collective bargaining contract or a collective bargaining arbitration award rendered after the adoption of a plan shall not in any manner violate, expand plan's provisions, except under specific conditions for arbitration settlements rendered under Act 111 of 1968. A collective bargaining agreement, contract or settlement in existence in a municipality or an arbitration award in effect in a municipality prior to a consolidation Hits: 3 |
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - State Tax Comparison Page 1 Methodology and Data Sources This Hits: 2 |
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Tax Comparison Study Page 1 Methodology and Data Sources This Hits: 2 |
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdfOffice Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Contacts: Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director __________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 Hits: 2 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 31, 2023 The Honorable Scott Martin Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main group based on expanded cash income) with children claimed the credit and 18.2% in the highest income quintile. By contrast, 8.1% of filers with children in the second income quintile claimed the credit, and only 0.2% in the Hits: 2 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 6, 2021 The Honorable Patrick M. Browne Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 for the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions, please do not hesitate to contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office Attachments April 6, 2021 Page 4 Age Group Inflow to Hits: 2 |
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 6, 2020 The Honorable Patrick M. Browne Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 for the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions, please do not hesitate to contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office Attachments March 6, 2020 Page 6 # or $ Share # or $ Share Hits: 2 |
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdfexpands when new properties are added to the assessment rolls or current properties are reassessed based on improvements, and it contracts when appeals reduce the assessed value. The forecast projects that the net tax base expansion will be 1 percent annually Resources/Documents/SR2017-05.pdf. Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements: Jesse Bushman Independent Fiscal Office Author: Lauren Mondschein Hits: 2 |
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdfexpands when new properties are added to the assessment rolls or current properties are reassessed based on improvements, and it contracts when assessment appeals reduce the assessed value. The forecast projects that the net tax base expansion will be 0.75 Resources/Documents/SR2017-05.pdf. Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements: Jesse Bushman Independent Fiscal Office Author: Lauren Mondschein Hits: 2 |
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdfKnittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Outlook Released November 15, 2022 Demographics ▪ Working age cohort (age 20-64) continues to contract ▪ Labor force participation rates do not recover from COVID decline Economics ▪ Forecast assumes reversion to “normal” economic growth Revenues ▪ Inflation 000 workers ~50% demographics ~50% other factors LFPR = share of adults age 16+ working or looking for work Lower LFPR + contracting demographic = worker shortage 59 60 61 62 63 64 Jan Apr Jul-18 Oct Jan Apr Jul-19 Oct Jan Hits: 2 |
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdfJobs) • Social Assistance +32 (most is elderly-disabled services) • Warehouse-Storage +23 • Comp System Design +10 • Home Health Care +9 Contraction • Nursing Home -17 • Full Serve Restaurant -13 • Retail Sales -12 Slide 9 Jan 2024 Roundtable 5,000 5,200 5 us on X (@ind_fisc_office) or sign up on the IFO website to receive notifications about new releases. Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us January 31, 2024 CreationDate: 2024-01-31 17:27:45 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft 365 Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdfstronger than last fiscal year ▪ Up ~+17% (adjusted for shifts) ▪ Likely causes: stock market and timing of payments ▪ Estimated payments contracted for tax year 2020 (-2.5%) Delay employer portion of federal payroll taxes ▪ Delay 50% to no later than Dec attempt to re-enter when benefits expire? May 26, 2021 21 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us May 26, 2021 22 CreationDate: 2021-05-26 15:41:51 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf2021. Wages-salaries decline by 1.7 percent. The unemployment rate increases to 8.7 percent and employment contracts by 264,000 jobs (both full- and part-time). That figure represents the average job loss over the entire year and excludes self- employed and independent contractors. The actual employment contraction in 2020 Q2 will be considerably higher. Most of the job loss occurs in the retail trade, accommodation-food Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdfand independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020 is a forecast by IFO. Profits and Capital Income Contract May 26, 2020 10 Great Recession COVID-19 Pandemic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2019 2020 2021 Net Profits (Pass Through labor force shrinks May 26, 2020 21 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Use Zoom chat or Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us May 26, 2020 22 CreationDate: 2020-05-27 13:05:12 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate Hits: 2 |
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 23, 2019 The Honorable Francis X. Ryan House of Representatives 149A East I hope you find these data useful. If you have further questions regarding this request, please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three Hits: 2 |
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 16, 2021 The Honorable Francis X. Ryan Pennsylvania House of Representatives 149A 16, 2021 Page 4 If you have any questions regarding the tables or estimates provided, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE . September 30, 2019 The Honorable Francis X. Ryan Pennsylvania House of Representatives 149A are subject to tax). If you have any questions regarding the table or estimates provided, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Vincent Hughes Senate of Pennsylvania 545 Main Capitol could be redirected to other purposes. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 7, 2019 The Honorable Jim Cox Pennsylvania House of Representatives 209 Ryan hope this letter addresses your request. If you have any further questions regarding the analysis, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per office policy, this letter will be posted to the IFO website three days after Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 19, 2019 The Honorable Doug Mastriano Senate of Pennsylvania 172 Main Capitol to five percent could be used. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 12, 2019 The Honorable Robert M. Tomlinson Senate of Pennsylvania 281 Main Expansion September 12, 2019 Page 5 If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 12, 2019 The Honorable Robert M. Tomlinson Senate of Pennsylvania 281 Main 000) September 12, 2019 Page 6 If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 6, 2019 The Honorable Mario Scavello Senate of Pennsylvania 20 East Wing revenues to fund the proposed rebates. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE August 16, 2019 The Honorable Mario Scavello Senate of Pennsylvania 20 East Wing increase by 0.33 percentage points. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three Hits: 2 |
RB_2024_09_Gaming.pdfteam and individual events and professional motor race events. Tax revenues peaked in FY 2022-23 at $177 million and contracted slightly the following year ($175 million, -1%). Video gaming terminals (VGTs) operate at qualified truck stops in Pennsylvania, with a iGaming). If they are a close substitute, then the expansion likely restrains in-person or retail casino tax revenues. Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us. 1 The following requirements must be met Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdfpack) and a local tax for sales that occur in Philadelphia ($2.00 per pack). The figure below displays the contraction in cigarette tax revenues for these levies since state fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. These taxes are levied on a 1% from the prior year. Analysts attribute that outcome to temporary layoffs and more remote working. Since then, revenues have contracted rapidly at an average rate of 8.3% per annum through FY 2022-23. For the first five months of Hits: 2 |
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdfto pension accounts. However, it does not include capital gains income. Population Growth From 2017 to 2020, Pennsylvania’s population contracted at an average rate of 0.03% per annum. Figure 1 displays outcomes for all counties. At the county level would have been at least 10% lower without pandemic-related relief income (Elk, Cameron, Lawrence, Fulton, Huntingdon and Fayette). By contrast, Chester (4.2% lower) and Montour (5.0% lower) counties were least impacted (in relative terms) by pandemic relief income Hits: 2 |
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdfdue to greater liquidity, a lower UAL and enhanced leverage. As part of its statutory duties, the IFO and its contracted actuary (Milliman) provided an analysis of the legislation in an actuarial note transmitted November 19, 2019. 2 A simulation run credits issued to Penn State in Fiscal Year 2020-21. Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 The IFO requested that its contracted actuary, Milliman, conduct a simulation in which the net investment return for 2021 was 0.00%, instead of the realized Hits: 2 |
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdfthat general trend. For residents age 85 and older, deaths increased by 6,913 (14.5%) for 2020 but contracted by 2,500 (-5.3%) for 2021 compared to the recent pre-COVID average. In terms of overall number of Michaela Miller produced this research brief. Questions regarding this document can be directed to mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us or contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Office Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2021-09-30 18:15:31 Creator: PScript5 Hits: 2 |
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdfCameron County). (See page 5 for specific county data.) While the northern and western regions of the state generally recorded contractions, the south central and eastern regions recorded moderate gains. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2020 Independent and Pittsburgh metro regions generally recorded the highest levels of per capita personal income, in excess of $55,000. By contrast, five counties recorded per capita income levels below $40,000. Two counties deserve special note. First, Forest County (filled white Hits: 2 |
RB-2019-01.pdfPa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange ($3.086 for CY 2018). 3. See Snyder Brothers, Inc. v. Pennsylvania Public Utility production. It should be noted that many producers hedge prices for a large share of their production (e.g., futures contracts). 5. The annual ETR represents the average rate for all wells operating in a single calendar year. A lifetime ETR Hits: 2 |
RB-2015-04.pdf0.9 percent per annum from 2014 to 2017 (roughly 53,000 new payroll jobs per year), but a modest contraction for those who earn $8.00 or less (‐0.5 percent per annum). These assumptions are consistent with historical trends November 2015 7 Rachel Carson State Of Ðice Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 E‐mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Independent Fiscal Of Ðice Endnotes 1. The CPS hourly wage Hits: 2 |
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdfPennsylvania law mandates a minimum royalty rate of 12.5 percent of the market value of the sale. 1 Some contracts allow firms to deduct post-production costs from gross revenues prior to the application of the relevant royalty rate. Post- There may be cases where leaseholders reside and file returns from counties (or states) other than the land under contract and do not reside in one of the top eight producing counties shown in the table. This outcome would cause Hits: 2 |
QRE_FY14-15.pdfOffice Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Contacts: Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director __________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 Hits: 2 |
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdfthrough 2023-24), three factors drive lower growth in expenditures: (1) SERS and PSERS employer contribution rates stabilize, (2) a contraction of the school age population restrains the growth of Pre-K-12 expenditures and (3) the aging of the Commonwealth impartial analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Title: Microsoft Word - press release - 2015 economic and budget outlook Author: MJR Creator: Microsoft® Word Hits: 2 |
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdfincorporates savings based on recent cost containment efforts. Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort will (1) restrain impartial analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: MJR Company: Microsoft Created: D:20151208 CreationDate: 2017-11-16 17:20:40 Creator Hits: 2 |
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdffor Healthcare and Professional Service Sectors. • Healthy PA to add 600,000 new enrollees. • Some uncertainty over the ACA. Continued Contraction for Government Sector. • Federal government sheds Postal Service jobs. • Local gov’t contracts due to shrinking pupil base and pensions. Exception: Labor Force Participation Rates. • Forecast assumes a small increase for younger workers Hits: 2 |
Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdfPensions under a DB plan are formula‐based and do not vary with the funding status of the plan. In contrast, defined contribution (DC) plans do not provide a predetermined benefit. The funds available in the DC plan ultimately determine the 2014. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230‐8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 3/26/2015 16 Thank You Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-03- Hits: 2 |
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf64% 56% 61% Note: Based on the actuarial value of assets. Source: PSERS’ actuarial valuations, various years. March 8, 2018 Contact Information contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us (717) 230-8293 37 March 8, 2018 Author: Hannah Barrick CreationDate Hits: 2 |
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdfCommonwealth of Pennsylvania March 1, 2019 Today’s IFO Presentation Executive Summary | Crucial Assumptions | Recession Risk Demographics: a contracting workforce Economics: modest 2018 gains from TCJA, strong labor market Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate measures to close the gap. What will legislature enact? Various long-term demographic concerns. Declining birth rates. Possible contracting labor force. Policymakers should consider recession scenarios. Surveys: recession more likely than not next three years. Will federal Hits: 2 |
Pirates_Press_Release_2024_07.pdfthe park. The full report, including a response letter from the Pirates, is available on the IFO’s website. EMAIL: CONTACT@IFO.STATE.PA.US PHONE: 717-230-8293 EMAIL: contact@ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2024-07-05 14:46:51 Creator: Adobe InDesign 19.4 (Windows) ModDate: 2024-07- Hits: 2 |
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdfHigh-risk sectors: retail, food service, accommodation, travel Government job losses not fully reflected Hidden: PA labor force contracts by 151,000 in Sept 2020 from prior year Other relief programs expire at end of year | impact unclear federal UC support: PUA and extended benefits November 18, 2020 9 Presentation is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us November 18, 2020 10 CreationDate: 2020-11-17 21:25:29 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate Hits: 2 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Request_May_4_2021.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 4, 2021 The Honorable Patrick M. Browne The Honorable Stanley E. Saylor during the Performance-Based Budget Board hearing on April 26, 2021. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office Enclosures cc: Colby Clabaugh, Executive Director, Office of Performance through Excellence Joshua Hits: 2 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdfMetric Highlights SY 20-21 school enrollment recorded large decline ▪ SY 16-17 to SY 19-20 total school enrollment contracted 5,000 per annum ▪ SY 20-21 declined by 38,000, much larger than Census data suggests SY 19-20 Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 contact@ifo.state.pa.us March 9, 2022 7 CreationDate: 2022-03-09 14:36:57 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft Hits: 2 |
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdfBaby Boom cohort retiring. From 2015-25, age 65+ increases by 31.1% (PA). All other age groups contract by -1.9%. Longer life spans. In 1990, those age 65 could expect to live 17 years. By lower rent. Outcomes vary greatly based on local conditions. Homeowners vs. renters. Working vs. retired. Growing vs. contracting school districts. 19.May.2017 Summary 26 Presentation to be Posted on IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us 19 Hits: 2 |
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdfHigh-risk sectors: retail, food service, accommodation, travel Large permanent job losses likely permanent Hidden: PA labor force contracts by 188,000 in October 2020 from prior year Other relief programs expire at end of year | impact unclear federal UC support: PUA and extended benefits December 9, 2020 9 Presentation is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us December 9, 2020 10 CreationDate: 2020-12-09 14:31:13 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate Hits: 2 |
NGIFE-2016.pdfPa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange. 3. The price used for this calculation is a weighted average of spot prices production. It should be noted that many producers hedge prices for a large share of their production (e.g., futures contracts). 4. An alternative to the annual average ETR is the lifetime ETR, which is the average tax burden over the Hits: 2 |
NAP-2018-03.pdfcredit to businesses and individuals who qualify for their program and caps the annual credits allocated at $3 million. In contrast, New Jersey offers a 100% tax credit but reserves it strictly for businesses that invest in comprehensive revitalization plans. New providing the information necessary to complete this report. Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgments: Tessa Dorr and Matthew Lindsay Author: TDorr CreationDate Hits: 2 |
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdfFund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15). Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15). Pension and wage contract analysis. Special studies at request of General Assembly. A Quick Tour Budget Status. Where are we? How did wave accelerates. Baby Boom more pronounced in PA than US. Mid-Term: 5 - 10 Years. Labor force may contract. Tax burden falls on smaller cohort. Long-Term: 10+ Years. Deaths exceed births. Heavily dependent on international Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-08.pdfelectricity market. Total retail sales of electricity declined by 5.7% compared to the same period in 2015, as demand contracted in every sector. The unseasonably warm winter was a potential factor affecting demand in 2016. The residential sector was especially in the first half of 2015, driven by declines in the commercial (-3.2%) and industrial (-5.5%) sectors. By contrast, average residential prices continue to grow in PA, and were 4.2% higher in the first half of 2016 than Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-05.pdf1% per annum. Data through April 2016 show a continuation of this trend, with annual growth of 6.1%. By contrast, sales at gasoline stations have become a less significant component of consumer spending. In 2012, gasoline station sales comprised 14.1% of total sales, whereas in 2016, these sales comprised 9.0% of the total. This contraction is generally attributable to the rapid decline in U.S. gasoline prices, which averaged $3.62 per gallon in 2012 Hits: 2 |
MTR-2015-08.pdfhave increased at roughly the same pace as the Pennsylvania economy. However, due in part to consolidation, industry employment has contracted by roughly 6,000 payroll jobs from 2006 to 2014. Preliminary data through June 2015 indicate a further contraction of roughly 1,000 payroll jobs. Currently, the banking industry (defined as depository credit intermediation) comprises 1.3 percent of Hits: 2 |
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of poultry or livestock, regardless if the sale is made directly by the purchaser or pursuant to a construction contract. This provision applies to sales after December 31, 2019. Prior Law None. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2019- Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdfS. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 2. National real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.4%, contracting in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Pennsylvania experienced the 10 th largest percent decline in 2020 Q2 which increased year-over-year (8.9%) due to the temporary hiring of Census workers. However, federal government employment will contract as the decennial Census concludes. Overall, the private sector recorded modest employment gains, while the government and education sectors reported Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdfwage growth (see graph). From 2020 Q2 to 2021 Q1, average wage growth appeared very high due to the disproportionate contraction of lower-wage workers. The latest three quarters of data show that average wages are growing at a rate similar that a slowdown may be necessary to reduce inflation. Some analysts project a “growth recession,” where the economy does not contract, but expands only at a modest rate. Monthly Economic Update April 2022 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2019.1 Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdfpay wages fell by 46.2% over the prior year in Pennsylvania and 30.1% nationally. The year- over-year contraction in Pennsylvania new business applications is more severe than contractions realized during the Great Recession. While some of the decline in business applications may be due to entrepreneurs simply delaying Hits: 2 |
MER-2015-02.pdfgrowing sectors with av‐ erage annual wages above $50,000. The data show that all industries that recorded an employment contraction since 2009 have an average annual wage above $50,000 including the financial activities ($80,900), information ($69,700) and man‐ ufacturing ($59,200) sectors. The largest contrac‐ tion was recorded by the government sector ($50,400), which pays an average wage very close to the statewide average Hits: 2 |
May_1_Revenue_Update.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 1, 2024 Dear Chairs Martin, Hughes, Harris and Grove: This letter provides FY 2023-24 and an initial estimate for FY 2024-25. If you have any questions regarding this letter, please contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office cc: Uri Monson, Budget Secretary Patrick Browne, Revenue Secretary CreationDate: 2024- Hits: 2 |
Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdfcomparison accounts for this normal seasonal hiring, then the latest data reveal minimal or no gains for some sectors, and contraction for others. The bottom portion of the table displays the latest data for COVID-related traditional UC claims (excludes “normal each week on average for a total of $1.9 billion. That figure is slightly less than March, as the contraction in traditional claims was partially offset by gains in PUA (which may include backlogged claims). On average, UC claimants receive Hits: 2 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdfBentek Energy and are converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet using Pennsylvania- specific heat content. The analysis disregards hedging contracts and assumes that the average spot price is representative of prices received by producers. 3. Post-production cost estimates are to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 2 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdfthe substantial year-over-year reduction in market value (-52.4%), which more than offset lower collections (-27.0%). The contraction in market value, which was driven by a 54.2% decline in prices and relatively modest production growth (4.0% to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 2 |
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdfOffice June 2019 5 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgement: Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh Independent Fiscal Office to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 2 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdfOffice June 2018 5 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgement: Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh Independent Fiscal Office to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 2 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdfJuly 2017 5 Rachel Carson State Of Ðice Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 E‐mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements: Jesse Bushman and Matt Lindsay Independent Fiscal Of to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near‐month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 2 |
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdfOffice January 2020 3 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgement: Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh Independent Fiscal Office to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 2 |
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 16, 2022 The Honorable Francis X. Ryan Pennsylvania House of Representatives 149A school districts reporting negative unassigned fund balances. If you have any questions regarding this information, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website Hits: 2 |
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 7, 2022 The Honorable Stanley Saylor House Appropriations Committee, Chairman 245 Main the potential size of the dynamic impact. If you have further questions regarding this letter, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230- 8293). Per IFO policy, this letter will be posted to the office website three days after Hits: 2 |
IFO_Response_Letter_Feb_21_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 21, 2023 The Honorable Tracy Pennycuick Pennsylvania Senate 16 East Wing, Main be taxed at a lower rate. If you have any further questions regarding the analysis, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website Hits: 2 |
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 5, 2023 The Honorable Rosemary M. Brown Pennsylvania Senate 187 Main Capitol the IFO. April 5, 2023 Page 3 If you have any questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website Hits: 2 |
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 12, 2022 The Honorable Francis X. Ryan Pennsylvania House of Representatives 149A 30 to 40 years. If you have any questions regarding the tables or estimates provided, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website Hits: 2 |
IFO_Letter_to_the_SCC.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 3, 2021 The Honorable Karl Brown, Executive Secretary State Conservation Commission 311 2021 Page 2 If you have any questions regarding this information or require additional guidance, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website Hits: 2 |
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdfThere will be relatively fewer working-age residents to support the needs of rapidly expanding retiree and elderly populations. The contraction of the working-age cohort suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep increase in demand for healthcare and other services. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Title: Microsoft Word - press release - 2015 economic and budget outlook Author: MJR Creator: Microsoft® Word Hits: 2 |
IFO ppt.pdf2012 Revenue Conference Economic Outlook Summary • Crucial short-term factors: – Potential for European debt crisis. Recent French downgrade. German economy contracts in 2011 Q4. Forecast assumes crisis averted, minor recession instead. – Extension of payroll tax cut. Economic forecast assumes full year for 2010-20. – Working age population shrinks by -1.8% for 2010-20. Low total wage growth. – PA tax base contracts over long term. • Pension obligations major driver of future expenditures. • Uncertainty restrains short-run growth. – European debt crisis. – Federal fiscal Hits: 2 |
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 17, 2021 The Honorable Stanley E. Saylor Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 business days after transmittal to your office. If you have any questions regarding the letter, please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230-8293). Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office. March 17, 2021 Page 6 Sources Aydelotte, Jayson Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf2020-21 to 2025-26 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 21, 2021 Today’s Presentation Four Parts Demographics a contracting labor force Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus birth rates, household formation and migration patterns January 21, 2021 21 Presentation is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us January 21, 2021 22 CreationDate: 2021-01-22 17:03:55 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdffrom the Pennsylvania State Data Center Adjustments by IFO for 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Three Demographic Trends Unexpected contraction of PA population in 2016. Birth rates continue to fall. Strong domestic migration out of state (but data very preliminary). Retirement surge has important implications. “Churning” reduces growth of total wages paid. Possible contraction of labor force. But participation rates increase. No signs of “brain drain” or strong elderly inflow. Recent data suggest Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdfdigit annual growth rates are projected to abate. Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort (14.7 percent impartial analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: mryan Company: Microsoft Created: D:20151208 CreationDate: 2016-11-15 15:01:36 Creator Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdfof 3.7 percent per annum. Pennsylvania’s economic growth over the next decade is constrained by the projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64). Demographic projections assume an increase of 32.2 percent in the timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-12-09 17:49:53 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2 Hits: 2 |
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdfmillion likely comprised roughly 70 percent of total tax liability for that tax year (computation not shown on table). By contrast, firms with less than $25,000 of tax liability (23,891 firms) comprised nearly 80 percent of firms with a request from Representatives Jason Ortitay and Martina White. Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgments: Rachel Flaugh and Matthew Lindsay Author: Rachel Flaugh Hits: 2 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdffrom January 26, 2016 Mid‐Year Update. (11) Pennsylvania Demographic Trends Over the next decade, the working age population will contract by roughly 222,000 residents. Over the next decade, the number of retirees will increase by roughly 673,000 residents C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the average annual price is the annual average of the settled prices for near‐ month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The fee schedule is adjusted downward if the price of gas falls between $2 Hits: 2 |
April_1_Revenue_Update.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 1, 2024 Dear Chairs Martin, Hughes, Harris and Grove: This letter provides FY 2023-24 and an initial estimate for FY 2024-25. If you have any questions regarding this letter, please contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office cc: Uri Monson, Budget Secretary Patrick Browne, Revenue Secretary CreationDate: 2024- Hits: 2 |
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 11, 2022 The Honorable Seth M. Grove Pennsylvania House of Representatives 7 bounds of the Act 1 Index. If you have any further questions regarding this letter, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website Hits: 2 |
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdfJobs) • Social Assistance +32 (most is elderly-disabled services) • Warehouse-Storage +23 • Comp System Design +10 • Home Health Care +9 Contraction • Nursing Home -17 • Full Serve Restaurant -13 • Retail Sales -12 Slide 8 Mid-Year Update 5,000 5,200 5 us on X (@ind_fisc_office) or sign up on the IFO website to receive notifications about new releases. Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us January 30, 2024 CreationDate: 2024-01-30 17:54:26 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft 365 Hits: 2 |
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdfDetail January 31, 2023 7 Change From Dec 2019 Annual Share of Dec 21 Dec 22 Gain Dec 19 Jobs Contraction Nursing and Residential Care -32 -25 7 87.8% Full-Service Restaurants -30 -17 13 91.5 Employment Services (temps 3.4 Note: Dollars in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Presentation is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow us on Twitter (@ind_fisc_office) or sign up on the IFO website to receive notifications about Hits: 2 |
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdfgiving any extra compensation to any public officer, servant, employee, agent or contractor, after services shall have been rendered or contract made, nor providing for the payment of any claim against the Commonwealth without previous authority of the law: Provided, however a combined retirement system, while in other states separate retirement systems are maintained for these employee groups. The retirement systems contacted were comprised of 69 defined benefit retirement systems and 2 defined contribution retirement systems. The defined contribution retirement systems do Hits: 2 |
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdfon available data and research. The IFO welcomes any comments or suggestions. Comments and suggestions can be submitted on the “Contact IFO” page. INTRODUCTION Throughout 2011, workers received a boost in their take-home pay due to the Tax Relief, Unemployment Hits: 1 |
SR2017-06.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE December 6, 2017 Douglas E. Hill Executive Director County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania Hits: 1 |
SR2014-03-presentation.pdfFindings Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717)230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 16.Dec.2014 19 Thank you Title: Fiscal Implications of a Hits: 1 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 15, 2024 The Honorable Scott Martin Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main Hits: 1 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 16, 2022 The Honorable Patrick M. Browne Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Hits: 1 |
Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdffor the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions, please do not hesitate to contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director Enclosures 2 Table A Corporate Net Operating Loss Carryforward and Carryback Periods Number Hits: 1 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2024.pdfforecast uses the U.S. ECI for all private workers from S&P Global, with adjustments by the IFO. Staff Contact Questions regarding the report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. Act 1 Index and Components 3.4% Hits: 1 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdfthe IFO projected that school districts with large amounts of commercial property such as Philadelphia could realize a property tax contraction of approximately 2.75% due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2 • From FY 2012-13 to FY 2021-22, collections Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdfFiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdfifo.state.pa.us/EmailSubscr.cfm to be alerted by email when new documents are posted to the IFO website. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2016-06-15 18:21:05 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdfifo.state.pa.us/EmailSubscr.cfm to be alerted by email when new documents are posted to the IFO website. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-06-15 19:38:23 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdfmethods and data used to make the projections. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-05-04 14:33:34 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdfifo.state.pa.us/EmailSubscr.cfm to be alerted by email when new documents are posted to the IFO website. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2014-06-16 18:20:08 Creator: Acrobat PDFMaker 10 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf Higher worker productivity = fewer employment opportunities October 29, 2020 15 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us October 29, 2020 16 CreationDate: 2020-10-29 16:07:37 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdfFiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Hits: 1 |
Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf8 million (7.6%). The three-month total shows that sales and use tax revenues grew by 3.3%, in contrast to the 0.8% growth rate over the last twelve months. Personal income tax revenues increased by $117 million Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_10_Act_1.pdfDrives Property Tax Relief to New High Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2024 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. County Amount Number Avg. County Amount Number Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdfPTRR) program for claim year 2022. Those rebates totaled $190 million to income-eligible seniors and residents with disabilities. Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. CreationDate: 2024-09-05 18:57:29 Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_07_Budget_Update.pdfand personnel-related costs (wages, healthcare, SERS and PSERS pensions) by 4.2%. Due to the recent ratification of wage contracts and stability of near-term employer contribution rates, the personnel-related growth rate should be relatively accurate and those expenditures Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_05_Treasury.pdfwhile each 1 percentage point drop in interest rates (at current balances) results in a $150 million revenue reduction. Staff Contact This research brief was produced by Joe Shockey. Questions can be directed to jshockey@ifo.state.pa.us. Treasury Windfalls Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_05_ACP.pdfhow low-income beneficiaries will be impacted as internet service bills could increase by up to $360 per annum. Staff Contact This research brief was produced by Frank Lill. Questions can be directed to flill@ifo.state.pa.us. 1 See Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdffacility costs (e.g., rent, mortgage and utilities) and/or to retain or attract employees, as private child care employment contracted by 8,700 in 2020 (-19.5%). 1 By 2023, private child care employment had largely recovered to pre-pandemic Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdfthe leisure-hospitality sector recorded substantial gains (+11.3%). ▪ Relative to June 2020 and June 2021, real average hourly earnings contracted for all private workers due to unusually high inflation in 2022. ▪ Relative to June 2022, all private workers recorded moderate Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdfwas unique to 2021, and emissions in most states reverted to a historical trend decline in 2022 as coal generation contracted significantly. According to EIA emissions data for 2021, Pennsylvania coal generation emits approximately 2.5 times the amount of carbon Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdfthose actively seeking work (i.e., unemployed). The ratio computations reveal much larger declines for younger age groups and a contraction across all age groups. This outcome is consistent with labor force participation rate trends at the national level. The final Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdfMichaela Miller produced this research brief. Questions regarding this document can be directed to jshockey@ifo.state.pa.us or contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Office Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 9 Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, latest available. Figure 3 Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdfLesley McLaughlin produced this research brief. Questions regarding this document can be directed to lmclaughlin@ifo.state.pa.us or contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Office Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2022-03-08 14:22:46 Creator: Microsoft Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdfMichaela Miller produced this research brief. Questions regarding this document can be directed to mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us or contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Office Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2022-02-10 13:58:30 Creator: PScript5 Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdfsince 1979. That rate is much stronger than the recovery from the Great Recession, which recorded a stronger annual wage contraction, but over three consecutive quarters and not just one. (See graph.) The graph also shows the YOY growth in the Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdfbe bid up. Real average hourly earnings in the construction sector also increased (1.5%), due to similar pressures. By contrast, real average hourly earnings fell for the manufacturing (-0.8%) and the professional and business service (-1.7%, e.g Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdfthe state budget. Notable Legislation As part of its statutory duties, the IFO works with the state pension systems and contracted actuaries to analyze proposed pension legislation. The acts below were analyzed by the IFO prior to enactment and are notable Hits: 1 |
RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdfas earnings and wage growth exceeded inflation. Inflation then surged in 2021 and 2022, so that real earnings and wages contracted. For 2023, inflation and average hourly earnings growth decelerated, but ECI growth continued to accelerate. When analyzing inflation and wage Hits: 1 |
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdffollow. Finally, the analysis assumes millage rates are held constant and there is no net effect from general economic growth/contraction and/or appeals. Shifting payments across periods, higher millage rates and general economic growth (already reflected in bills sent in Hits: 1 |
RB-2018-01.pdfDocuments/SR2017‐05.pdf. Rachel Carson State Of Ðice Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements: Jesse Bushman Independent Fiscal Of Ðice Author: mryan Hits: 1 |
RB-2017-5.pdfIt measures total economic output and can be used to evaluate the rate at which a state economy expands or contracts. Personal Income The sum of all sources of income such as wages, business income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, employer Hits: 1 |
RB 2019 RACP.pdfaverage of 143 awards annually with an average value of $1.4 million per award (nearly $200 million annually). By contrast, the prior administration approved higher average awards ($2.8 million), but only awarded 217 grants over a four- year term Hits: 1 |
Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdfs Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-8293 or contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Author: MJR Creator: Microsoft® Word 2013 CreationDate: 2014-10-23 13:53:12 ModDate: 2014-10- Hits: 1 |
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdfCensus Bureau. Updated for 2020 Decennial Census. Forecast by IFO. See “2021 Demographic Outlook” Nov. 2021. Economy: PA Labor Force Contraction Continues January 19, 2022 3 Labor Force # Employed + # Unemployed Unemployment Rate # Unemployed / Labor Force Unemployed Actively looked for work in Hits: 1 |
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdftimely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel or Mark Ryan, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2012-11-16 14:21:50 Creator: PScript5.dll Hits: 1 |
Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdfProposals Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 7/15/2015 17 Thank You Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate Hits: 1 |
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdfonly). More Subtle: Rapidly Aging Population. • Age 65 and older expands by 14.9% through 2020. • Under age 65 contracts by -0.7% through 2020. 12.Feb.2015 10 What Drives Increase in the Deficit? 12.Feb.2015 Non-Recurring Hits: 1 |
Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf2016 Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230‐8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 4/11/2016 15 Thank You Author: mryan CreationDate: 2016-04- Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf517 660 1,063 Total Income Gain ($ million) 3,510 Note: Total gain includes incomes lost due to projected employment contraction. Computations assume all workers moved to $12.00/hour. In practice, some would receive a higher hourly wage to maintain Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdfPoints of Emphasis Various long-term demographic concerns. Declining birth rates. General aging of the state population. Possible contraction of the labor force. Large increase in projected deficit next fiscal year. Assumes no one-time measures are used Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdfus/ Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-10-12 19:36:01 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate: 2018- Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdfSeparate from Executive and Legislative branches. Various mandatory duties. General Fund revenue estimates. Coordinate pension analysis. Analyze wage contracts. Develop Performance-Based Budget plans for agencies. Things the office does not do: Make policy or budget recommendations Hits: 1 |
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdfsales tax (~$1.0 billion FY 23-24) April 19, 2023 18 Presentation Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us April 19, 2023 19 CreationDate: 2023-04-20 22:01:48 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft Hits: 1 |
PICPA_Presentation.pdf Strong job gains through 2017 Q1. Very strong gains in healthcare sector. Manufacturing, mining and retail sector contract. Total income growth is moderate. Wage growth slightly weaker than expected, but decent. Business profits continue to Hits: 1 |
Phillies_Press_Release_2024_07.pdfreport, including a response letter from the Phillies, is available on the IFO’s website. PHONE: 717-230-8293 EMAIL: contact@ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2024-07-05 14:46:06 Creator: Adobe InDesign 19.4 (Windows) ModDate: 2024-07- Hits: 1 |
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf138 -35,353 -45,064 -45,565 International Migration 29,193 29,791 33,818 34,910 34,678 Other contracting states in 2016: Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi, New York, West Virginia and Wyoming. Note: Amounts do not sum to total, excludes Hits: 1 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf2 (CCW), Activity 7 (Community ID/Autism Programs) and Activity 11 (County MH Programs): Staff turnover and average wages for contracted or third-party direct care workers that provide care to individuals served through child welfare, intellectual disabilities and mental health Hits: 1 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdfMetric Highlights SY 20-21 school enrollment recorded large decline ▪ SY 16-17 to SY 19-20 total school enrollment contracted 5K per annum ▪ SY 20-21 declined by 38K, much larger than Census data suggests SY 19-20 school assessments Hits: 1 |
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdfYear Jan 2018 PBB review schedule set by Budget Office and IFO Mar to Jul general research, design data template, contact other states (NM, WA, MN), update to PBB Board staff Mid August first meeting with each agency, transmit data template Hits: 1 |
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptxsmall firms | reduces cost to state Address credit oversubscription | anticipate it will continue ▪ Tiered rate structure | per firm cap | eliminate contract labor payments ▪ Tighten up QRE computation | allows better targeting Enact reforms to deter fraud and abuse (see Appendix) January 23 Hits: 1 |
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf2019 w/ ~250,000 less workers What are implications for General Fund revenues? ▪ Should we expect a deceleration or possible contraction? June 17, 2021 1 Federal Monies to Pennsylvania June 17, 2021 2 CY 2020 CY 2021 Total Federal Pandemic Unemployment Hits: 1 |
Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdfon the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-10-22 17:56:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU Hits: 1 |
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdfon the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-10-22 17:56:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU Hits: 1 |
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdfon the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-10-22 17:56:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU Hits: 1 |
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdfon the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-10-22 17:56:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU Hits: 1 |
novak ppt.pdfF EDERAL R ESERVE B ANK OF P HILADELPHIA Jason Novak Jason.Novak@phil.frb.org Phone: (215) 574-3852 Contact Information Title: External Slide Show Author: frbp CreationDate: 2012-01-18 15:13:37 ModDate: 2012-01-18 15:13 Hits: 1 |
NGQU_2024_Q2.pdfuptick from the first three quarters of 2023. The fourth quarter price increase is largely due to seasonal factors. Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. State Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Texas Hits: 1 |
NGQU_2024_Q1.pdffor April show that the Pennsylvania average hub price was $1.34 and the Henry Hub was $1.59. Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. 2024 State Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Hits: 1 |
NGPR-2016Q4.pdf8 shows that the full-year count of shut-in wells declined by 8.2% from 2015 to 2016. In contrast, shut-in wells increased by 15.6% from 2014 to 2015. Table 9 shows that the full-year count of Hits: 1 |
NGIFE-2015.pdfC.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the average annual price is the annual average of the settled prices for near‐ month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The fee schedule is adjusted downward if the price of gas falls between $2 Hits: 1 |
NFIB_Feb_2024.pdf000s) • Social Assistance* +32 (most is elderly-disabled services) • Warehouse-Storage +23 • Comp System Design +10 • Home Health Care* +9 Contraction (000s) • Nursing Home* -17 • Full Serve Restaurant -13 • Retail Sales -12 Slide 3 Feb 2024 Economic Forum 5,000 5 Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_March_2020.pdfnon-store retailers (i.e., internet sales) recorded gains (0.7 percent). In future months, consumer spending is expected to contract significantly due to retail clo- sures, event and travel cancelations and the reduction or elimination of work hours for some Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_May.pdfthe mining (17.5%) and information (4.8%) sectors, while the arts- entertainment (-0.2%) and government (-0.5%) sectors contracted. Pennsylvania ranked 24 th across all states, lag- ging behind West Virginia (2.6%) and Ohio (1.9%), but outperforming Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_July.pdfanalysis finds that for Clinton County, tariffs may harm 29.5% of county GDP but may protect 3.1%. By contrast, 3.3% of Centre County GDP may be harmed and 3.4% may be protected. PA Ranks 12 th in Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-02.pdf2006, coal’s share has dropped precipitously. Over the last decade, coal’s share of electricity generation in Pennsylvania has contracted from 55% in 2006 to 25% in 2016, due, in part, to the increasing prevalence of natural gas. In 2006 Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-11.pdf2018. 3 Although the recent uptick in drilling in the third quarter of 2016 (grey columns) suggests that the employment contraction may have abated, more employment data are necessary to confirm that outcome. November 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Provided by Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-10.pdf0.8% per annum, or nearly 50,000 jobs. With the exception of 2013 (0.3% growth due to significant contraction in the government sector), the current recovery has also generated employment growth of roughly 0.8% per annum. However, the Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-03.pdfused to quantify the relative size of a given sector for the Pennsylvania economy. For 2015, the only sector to contract was the mining sector (-6.7%), largely due to a reduction in employment from a decline in natural gas drilling Hits: 1 |
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf65-79 2019 Q2 22.4% 2021 Q2 20.2% Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau. Payroll Jobs Contract March 31, 2022 12 5,100 5,300 5,500 5,700 5,900 6,100 6,300 2017 2018 Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_07.pdf1 million, -20.6%). Other tax and non-tax revenues increased $11.6 million (3.7%) from prior year collections. • Contractions in cigarette (-$15.3 million) and insurance premiums (-$24.6 million) tax revenues were partially offset by an increase in Hits: 1 |
MQRE_FY24-25_08_2024.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Marrisa Litman, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel Hits: 1 |
MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Hits: 1 |
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel Hits: 1 |
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Hits: 1 |
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst Hits: 1 |
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Hits: 1 |
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdfestimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Hits: 1 |
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdfFiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us ___________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Office was created by the Act of Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdfschool year and could be impacted by unusual seasonal adjustment factors. For example, non-seasonally adjusted payroll jobs for August contracted from the prior month, unlike the expansion using seasonally adjusted data. Monthly Economic Update September 2022 Pre-COVID Feb Mar Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdflowest rates since state data have been published (1976). The very tight labor market, low labor force participation rate and contracting demographics will continue to apply upward pressure on wage growth and economy wide inflation. Monthly Economic Update October 2022 Pre- Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdfhouseholds received stimulus payments to alleviate economic hardship due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the latest data show that contraction has completely reversed. After strong growth in 2022 (12.5%), credit card debt further accelerated through 2023 Q3 (14.2% Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdftime lows since state level data have been published (1976). The tight labor market, low labor force participation rate and contracting demographics will continue to apply upward pressure on wage growth and economy-wide inflation. Monthly Economic Update November 2022 Pre- Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdfSingle-family rent increased by an average of 3.8% over the prior year across 63 markets in September. In contrast, multifamily rents fell 0.3% over the prior year according to the September 2020 Multi-Housing News report. Monthly Economic Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdfmonths. ▪ Median Days on Market Median number of days between when a home is listed and when it goes under contract. This metric typically ranges from 55 to 70 days and reflects the degree of competition in the market. A lower Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdfyear. ▪ Median Days on Market Median number of days between when a home is listed and when it goes under contract. This metric reflects the degree of competition in the market. A lower number suggests a more competitive market. For May Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdfnotably more (45.4%) than regular gasoline (35.8%). Recent news articles cite various factors including rapidly expanding demand, a contraction of supply and limited refining capacity. Diesel fuel is used by transportation and various supply chain industries (e.g., farming Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdfand that lasts more than a few months.” It is no longer defined as two consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction. Monthly Economic Update July 2022 Pre-COVID Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 5 19 30 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdfforce that is unemployed (seasonally adjusted) fell to 13.0% from 13.4% a month earlier, due partly to a contraction in the size of the labor force. The unemployment rate continues to decline from a record high of 16.1% Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf1%), personal care services such as haircuts (+6.0%) and food away from home (+5.4%, includes food delivery). In contrast, other types of goods experienced significant price reductions including: car insurance (-10.8%), education and communication commodities (e.g., college Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdfBusiness Employment Dynamics for 2020 Q2. This reports gross private sector job gains and losses due to business expansion or contraction between March and June 2020, the peak of pandemic-related closures. Nationally, gross job losses (-20.4 million) outweighed gross Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdfmonths. ▪ Median Days on Market Median number of days between when a home is listed and when it goes under contract. This metric typically ranges from 55 to 70 days and indicates the degree of competition in the market. A lower Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdfis the product of the growth in worker productivity and growth in the number of workers. While an aging population, contracting labor force and declining LFPRs reduce the long-term state economic outlook, productivity gains through business investment could more than Hits: 1 |
Migration_RB_06_2024.pdfreturns. Source: IRS Statistics of Income Division, SOI Tax Stats, Migration Data 2021-2022. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 Staff Contact Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to Frank Lill, flill@ifo.state.pa.us. Individuals AGI Individuals AGI Hits: 1 |
mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdfthe IFO’s economic forecast and the revisions to the revenue estimate is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-01-25 21:08:58 Creator: Acrobat PDFMaker 15 Hits: 1 |
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdfpresentation discussing the economic forecast and the revisions to the revenue estimate is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-01-28 16:56:57 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2 Hits: 1 |
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdfis transmitted to tax revenues through (1) higher prices (SUT) and (2) higher wages (PIT). • Expenditure impact unclear (e.g., contracts and healthcare). • Inflation is a “wash” over long‐term, but not short‐term. 28.Jan.2015 6 Forecast: Very Low Hits: 1 |
MER-2015-01.pdfprices fell by a similar magnitude during a six-month period was the 2008-09 recession. Due to the economic contraction, U.S. gasoline demand collapsed and average prices fell by nearly $2.50 per gallon, a decline of roughly 60 Hits: 1 |
Labor_Market_Update_Sept_2021.pdfworkers who may re-enter the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data for August 2021, Pennsylvania payroll jobs contracted modestly in August relative to a no-pandemic scenario, as the computed year-over-year (YOY) change in payroll jobs Hits: 1 |
Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdfjobs typically decline in July largely due to a reduction in the government sector (local school districts). The summer jobs contraction was smaller than normal, possibly due to reductions that have already occurred. The computed YOY job loss improved in July Hits: 1 |
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdfs website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-05-02 16:52:06 Creator: Acrobat PDFMaker 15 Hits: 1 |
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdfto 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 1 |
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdfEmissions generally declined due to the transition from coal to natural gas generation. • Other non-RGGI states recorded similar emission contractions. The exception is Virginia which recorded a substantial increase in generation and therefore a smaller reduction in emissions. Net Generation Hits: 1 |
IFO_PASBO_Oct_2024.pdfus on X (@ind_fisc_office) or sign up on the IFO website to receive notifications about new releases. Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us October 8, 2024 CreationDate: 2024-10-08 18:20:43 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft 365 Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf35,000 32,500 33,000 Other 12,000 26,000 28,000 Subtotal 171,500 179,800 218,500 Contracted Actuarial Analysis 45,000 100,000 100,000 Total Expenditures $2,435,500 $2,319,800 $2,602,000 Appropriated Hits: 1 |
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdfto Charlene Raves (craves@ifo.state.pa.us). Please type the word 'Application' in the subject line. The IFO will contact qualified candidates regarding a personal interview to take place in either Harrisburg or via telephone. Author: Charlene Raves Company: Microsoft Hits: 1 |
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdfin-migrants from border states Continued dramatic change in age composition School Age and Working Age cohorts continue to contract Retirement wave continues | Begin to see dramatic increase in age 80+ November 14, 2019 6 PA Population Snapshots November Hits: 1 |
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdfis successful, DOC will realize significant savings. Rising inmate health care costs could apply budget pressure. New wage contracts can influence expenditures. Trends ($ millions) 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Inflation Hits: 1 |
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf517 660 1,063 Total Income Gain ($ million) 3,510 Note: Total gain includes incomes lost due to projected employment contraction. Computations assume all workers moved to $12.00/hour. In practice, some would receive a higher hourly wage to maintain Hits: 1 |
House Budget Hearing Request.pdffor the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions, please do not hesitate to contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director Enclosures 3 Table A Pennsylvania Federal Tax Returns by Age of Primary Income Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE To: Matthew Knittel, Director From: Mark J. Ryan Subject: Updated Projections for the Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdftimely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 or Mark Ryan, 717-917-6379 # # # Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2014-11-13 22 Hits: 1 |
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdftimely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel or Mark Ryan, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2013-11-14 22:18:20 Creator: PScript5.dll Hits: 1 |
EPLC_April_2024.pdfus on X (@ind_fisc_office) or sign up on the IFO website to receive notifications about new releases. Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us Slide 19 ContentTypeId: 0x0101007286B3A41AAE134DA202BF9306CA733E CreationDate: 2024-04-05 12:37:53 Creator: Acrobat PDFMaker 20 for Hits: 1 |
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdfPolice Fee ($136 million) Unclear whether they will be enacted Various long-term demographic concerns Declining birth rates | Contracting labor force Rapid growth age 80+ (healthcare costs accelerate) Policymakers should consider recession scenarios Rainy Day Fund = $340 Hits: 1 |
Electricity_Update_2024.pdfcoal generation over the last ten years. For 2023, coal was used for just 5.4% of total generation and contracted by 46.5% from 2022, the largest year-over-year drop on record. According to EIA emissions data for 2022 Hits: 1 |
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 7, 2023 The Honorable Seth M. Grove Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Hits: 1 |
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf11.7% 2022 -2.6% 2023 -2.0% March 13, 2020: Pandemic Starts… Jobs and Workers 1.1 million worker contraction April 2020; UE Rate goes to 16.2% Inflation Inflated assets: homes and stocks Real Earnings Feb 2024 Economic Summit Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdfU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NY Federal Reserve Board, Zillow and U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey. Recent Contraction of PA Payroll Jobs August 19, 2020 3 YOY Number Change (000s) YOY Percent Change April May June April May Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdfFederal Budget and Economic Update Following his presentation, Director Swagel will address questions that have been submitted. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2022-11-02 14:12:09 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAFO7t4e30Q,BAE9-b1inXk ModDate: 2022-11- Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdfon the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2021-01-11 12:37:29 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU Hits: 1 |
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf1.0 billion. • Long-run growth rate of expenditures > revenues. Economic growth to remain subdued. • Demographics dominate. Workforce may contract. Budget requires close scrutiny. • Certain programs grow automatically (healthcare and retirement). • Forward looking investments may comprise a smaller share Hits: 1 |
Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 7, 2024 The Honorable Seth M. Grove Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Hits: 1 |
BEFC_Response_Letter_12_19_23.pdfRachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE December 19, 2023 The Honorable Kristin Phillips-Hill The Honorable Michael Sturla Co- Hits: 1 |
Announcement_2021.pdfwill also be discussed. The presentation will examine various issues that impact the economic and budget outlook: (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 The Independent Fiscal Office presents ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Hits: 1 |
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdfof the state’s fiscal condition for the current year and the next five fiscal years. For more information, please contact Matthew Knittel at (717) 230-8293. Author: Mark Ryan Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2016-01-21 21:21:17 Creator: Acrobat Hits: 1 |
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdflong or short lifespans. Due to the pooling of funds, employees bear no longevity risk in a DB plan. By contrast, some retir- ees will outlive their assets in a DC plan, while others may have significant resources that remain at Hits: 1 |
2024_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdfin dollar millions. Fiscal impact includes wages, benefits and healthcare costs. Agreements with missing figures will be populated when the contract summaries and data are received from the Office of Administration. Budget Impact of Collective Bargaining Agreements CreationDate: 2024-05-20 Hits: 1 |
2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdfus on X (@ind_fisc_office) or sign up on the IFO website to receive notifications about new releases. Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us May 20, 2024 CreationDate: 2024-05-20 13:01:37 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft 365 Hits: 1 |
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdfto 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 1 |
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdfto 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 1 |
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdfto 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price for Hits: 1 |
2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdfin dollar millions. Fiscal impact includes wages, benefits and healthcare costs. Agreements with missing figures will be populated when the contract summaries and data are received from the Office of Administration. The estimates for non-represented and management assume that the Hits: 1 |
2019-Pub-2.pdfStrategy for Growth Matt Gardner, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy: Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2019-11-05 14:52:52 Creator: Canva Keywords: DADm-scWNSg,BACEQ8zYs40 ModDate: 2019-11- Hits: 1 |
2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdfs Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-8293 or contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-11-16 22:16:26 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 Hits: 1 |
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdfrate may look promising if viewed individually, but worrisome if one finds that the drop is due to labor force contraction. The underemployment rate, which is perhaps a more complete depiction, can be very useful in revealing la- bor force issues Hits: 1 |
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdfresidents can use to spend, save or pay down debt. In 2008, the ratio peaked at 1.27 as DCI contracted (-2.1 percent) from the 2008-09 recession while consumer debt continued to increase (4.3 percent). From 2008 to Hits: 1 |
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdfimplies that the $7.5 billion impact from expiration of the payroll tax cut causes an approxi- mate 1 percent contraction of the Pennsylvania economy. Short-Term Budget Impact Full-year impact on disposable income 5,031 Share of tax cut Hits: 1 |
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdfpop- ulation is expected to grow from 15.6 percent in 2011 to roughly 22.6 percent by 2030. By contrast, the share of residents under 20 years of age will de- cline from 26.6 percent in 2011 to 22 Hits: 1 |
2004_srpvffinal.pdfAge 55 Variable State enabling legislation gives local governments wide latitude in establishing plans. Plans largely administered through local government contracts with private sector service providers. Partial 25% w/5 years service, 100% w/15 years Age 55 or 15 years Hits: 1 |
2001_hr266.pdfa DB or DC plan, including any liability 18 for poor investment performance in a DC plan and possible 19 contract impairment issues. 20 (5) An analysis of any changes in the fiduciary 21 responsibilities and duties of the Commonwealth and Hits: 1 |
Right-to-Knowinclude sufficient detail to allow the Open Records Officer to locate the information requested, and should include the requester's contact information. Requests should be sent to the IFO Open Records Officer: Open Records Officer: Mathieu Taylor Office Address: 2nd Floor Hits: 1 |
Releasescorrection. Full Report Older Newer Release Type • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other Archives Year: All 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 Hits: 1 |
Pensionscurriculum without being subject to the cessation of annuity provisions of the Code; 4) define "extracurricular position" to mean a contract position filled by an annuitant that is separate from the established academic course structure, including the position of athletic director Hits: 1 |
About IFOMotor License Fund, and the Tobacco Settlement Fund. Other responsibilities include working on special projects related to transportation and wage contract analysis. Mathieu Taylor Fiscal Analyst III Mr. Taylor joined the IFO in 2018 and his primary responsibilities include state and Hits: 1 |