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November 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
Economic and Budget Outlook The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2023-24 to FY 2028-29 on November 15 at 1:30 pm. Long-term issues that impact the outlook include the expiration of federal relief programs, a rapidly expanding 75+ age cohort and the depletion of surplus balances that currently generate significant interest income. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. Tags: budget, economic, outlook, presentation
October 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
September 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
Economic Update Director Knittel made a brief presentation to an economic summit hosted by the York County Delegation of the General Assembly. Tags: economic, presentation
August 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
July 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
June 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
May 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
March 2023 Monthly Economic Update The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
Economic and Budget Outlook Hearing Request The IFO published a letter in response to requests for additional information raised at a recent economic and budget outlook hearing on January 24, 2023. Tags: budget, economic, request
JANUARY 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
Economic and Budget Outlook Presentation The IFO presented results from its five-year outlook report published in November 2022. Tags: budget, economic, presentation
December 2022 Monthly Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
November 2022 Monthly Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. Tags: economic, outlook, revenue
Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. Tags: budget, economic, outlook, presentation
October 2022 Monthly Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
SEPTEMBER 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
August 2022 Monthly Economic Update The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
July 2022 Monthly Economic Update The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
JUNE 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
May 2022 Monthly Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
April 2022 Monthly Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
March 2022 Monthly Economic Update The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
Economic and Budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30. Tags: budget, demographics, economic, estimates, presentation
February 2022 Monthly Economic Update The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
January 2022 Monthly Economic News The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
December 2021 Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update
Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. Tags: budget, economic, outlook
November 2021 Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update
Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. Tags: budget, economic, outlook, revenue
October 2021 Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update
September 2021 Economic Update The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update
August Economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel presented an economic and revenue update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. Tags: economic, presentation, revenue
August 2021 Economic Update The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, news, update
Economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update for the PACP Chamber Day. Tags: budget, economic, presentation
June 2021 Economic Update The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
May 2021 Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. Tags: brief, economic, federal, impact, research, stimulus
April 2021 Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
Budget and Economic Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. Tags: budget, economic, employment, gas, presentation
March 2021 Economic Update The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
Budget and Economic Update Presentation Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals. Tags: budget, economic, presentation
Economic and Budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. Tags: budget, demographic, economic, estimates, presentation, property
February 2021 Economic Update The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. Tags: budget, economic, outlook
January 2021 Economic Update The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
December 2020 Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
December Economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. Tags: economic, presentation, revenue
November 2020 Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
November Economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives and the PICA 2020 Fall Conference. Tags: economic, presentation, revenue
Revenue and Economic Update FY 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its October Revenue and Economic Update. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. Tags: economic, revenue
IFO Public Briefing: October 2020 Revenue and Economic Update The IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. Tags: economic, presentation, revenue
October 2020 Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax
September 2020 Economic Update The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
August 2020 Economic Update The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
August 2020 Economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee (Democrat). Tags: economic, revenue
July 2020 Economic Update The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
Economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products. Tags: economic, plastics, report
June 2020 Economic Update The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
May 2020 Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
April 2020 Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, news
February 2020 The Commonwealth collected $2.17 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $125.9 million compared to February 2019. Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue
IFO News Stand - February Edition The February edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, news
Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings. Testimony Tags: economic, revenue
JANUARY 2020 The Commonwealth collected $3.07 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $186.0 million compared to January 2019. Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue
Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/14/2024
economic and Budget Outlook The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2024-25 to FY 2029-30 on November 14 at 1:30 pm. The report will include an assessment of the General Fund surplus ($6.6 billion at end of FY 23-24) and Rainy Day Fund ($7.0 billion) under current law and policies. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 11/05/2024
2024 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2024-25 to 2029-30 in November 2024. 10/24/2024
economic and Property Tax Update Fiscal Analyst Jesse Bushman presented an update on the Pennsylvania economy and a new projection of the Act 1 Index to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials. 10/08/2024
2022 Property Tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens on homeowners and renters across the state for 2022. The brief was updated on September 6, 2024 to address a technical correction. 08/21/2024
Stadium economic Impact Report: Philadelphia Phillies The IFO performed an analysis that measured the 2023 economic footprint attributable to the Philadelphia Phillies’ Major League Baseball (MLB) operations at Citizens Bank Park. The analysis finds that economic activity related to team operations and fan spending generated $970 million in statewide spending, supported 5,400 full-time equivalent jobs, and $45 million in state taxes. Press Release 07/10/2024
Stadium economic Impact Report: Pittsburgh Pirates The IFO performed an analysis that measured the 2023 economic footprint attributable to the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Major League Baseball (MLB) operations at PNC Park. The analysis finds that economic activity related to team operations and fan spending generated $546 million in statewide spending, supported 3,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and $22 million in state taxes. Press Release 07/10/2024
economic and Budget Update Presentation The IFO presented on the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. 04/05/2024
Sports, Marketing & Tourism Series: 2023 Ironman PA Happy Valley Triathlon The IFO published an economic impact report for the Ironman 70.3 Pennsylvania Happy Valley Triathlon in Centre County (July 2023). The analysis finds that economic activity related to the event generated over $4.7 million in statewide spending, supported 30 full-time equivalent jobs, and $238,000 in select state and local taxes. 04/04/2024
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget released February 2024. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 03/28/2024
Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP). 03/21/2024
economic Update Director Knittel provided an economic update at the economic Forecast and Business Leadership Summit. 02/22/2024
State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis, CCH AnswerConnect and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the level of per capita state and local taxes across states (unadjusted and adjusted for price differentials) and (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property). 02/14/2024
economic Forum Director Knittel made a brief presentation at the NFIB economic Forum. 02/05/2024
economic and Budget Update Presentation Director Knittel made a presentation of the mid-year update to the House Budget Roundtable. 01/31/2024
Tax Credits and economic Development Incentives This report presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2023-24 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The report also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. 01/09/2024
November 2023 Monthly economic Update The Monthly economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 11/29/2023
Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2023
economic and Budget Outlook The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2023-24 to FY 2028-29 on November 15 at 1:30 pm. Long-term issues that impact the outlook include the expiration of federal relief programs, a rapidly expanding 75+ age cohort and the depletion of surplus balances that currently generate significant interest income. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 11/08/2023
October 2023 Monthly economic Update The Monthly economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 10/23/2023
2023 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 in November 2023. 10/19/2023
economic and Revenue Impact of Student Loan Moratorium Director Knittel gave a presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on the economic and revenue impact of the student loan moratorium. 10/03/2023
September 2023 Monthly economic Update The Monthly economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 09/14/2023
economic Update Director Knittel made a brief presentation to an economic summit hosted by the York County Delegation of the General Assembly. 09/14/2023
August 2023 Monthly economic Update The Monthly economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 08/23/2023
Property Tax Burden By County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2021. 08/22/2023
July 2023 Monthly economic Update The Monthly economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 07/12/2023
June 2023 Monthly economic Update The Monthly economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 06/26/2023
Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends As part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million. 06/12/2023
May 2023 Monthly economic Update The Monthly economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 05/23/2023
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2023-24 Executive Budget released March 2023. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 05/03/2023
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY economic UPDATE The Monthly economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/25/2023
economic and Budget Update The IFO presented an economic and Budget Update to the PA Motor Truck Association. 04/19/2023
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY economic UPDATE The Monthly economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/04/2023
March 2023 Monthly economic Update The March edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 03/21/2023
economic and Act 1 Index Update Director Knittel gave an economic and Act 1 Index update at the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO) Annual Conference. 03/16/2023
economic Update Director Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Chamber of Business and Industry. 03/13/2023
State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 02/21/2023
economic and Budget Outlook Hearing Request The IFO published a letter in response to requests for additional information raised at a recent economic and budget outlook hearing on January 24, 2023. 02/10/2023
JANUARY 2023 MONTHLY economic UPDATE The January edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/25/2023
economic and Budget Outlook Presentation The IFO presented results from its five-year outlook report published in November 2022. 01/24/2023
December 2022 Monthly economic Update The December edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/20/2022
Tax Credits and economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. This research brief was reposted on December 21 to correct a text error on page 1. 12/15/2022
November 2022 Monthly economic Update The November edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. 11/21/2022
Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2022
economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/02/2022
October 2022 Monthly economic Update The October edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. 10/24/2022
2022 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28. 10/05/2022
SEPTEMBER 2022 MONTHLY economic UPDATE The September edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/19/2022
Property Tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 09/06/2022
August 2022 Monthly economic Update The August edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/22/2022
July 2022 Monthly economic Update The July edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 07/25/2022
JUNE 2022 MONTHLY economic UPDATE The June edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 06/16/2022
May 2022 Monthly economic Update The May edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 05/19/2022
April 2022 Monthly economic Update The April edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 04/12/2022
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2022-23 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/08/2022
BUDGET AND economic UPDATE PRESENTATION Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. 03/31/2022
March 2022 Monthly economic Update The March edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 03/18/2022
economic and Budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30. 03/04/2022
February 2022 Monthly economic Update The February edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 02/09/2022
STATE AND LOCAL TAX REVENUES: A 50 STATE COMPARISON This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 01/19/2022
January 2022 Monthly economic News The January edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/17/2022
December 2021 economic Update The December edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/07/2021
Pennsylvania economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. 11/29/2021
economic Outlook and Property Tax Update Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook and School District Property Tax Forecast. 11/16/2021
Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2021
2021 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27. 11/15/2021
November 2021 economic Update The November edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 11/10/2021
economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/04/2021
October 2021 economic Update The October edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 10/07/2021
Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Report. 09/24/2021
September 2021 economic Update The September edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/16/2021
Property Tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 08/25/2021
August economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel presented an economic and revenue update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. 08/25/2021
August 2021 economic Update The August edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/12/2021
July 2021 economic Update The July edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 07/14/2021
economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update for the PACP Chamber Day. 06/17/2021
June 2021 economic Update The June edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 06/17/2021
May 2021 economic Update The May edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 05/18/2021
economic Impact of Federal Stimulus This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. 05/10/2021
April 2021 economic Update The April edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 04/28/2021
NAP, REAP, EEEP, VGP and KSDZ Tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Reviews. 04/26/2021
Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit Report. IFO Letter to the SCC 04/23/2021
Entertainment economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Entertainment economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit Report. 04/23/2021
Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit Report. 04/23/2021
Video Game Production Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Video Game Production Tax Credit Report. 04/23/2021
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2021-22 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/22/2021
Budget and economic Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. 03/31/2021
March 2021 economic Update The March edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 03/22/2021
Budget and economic Update Presentation Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals. 03/11/2021
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. 02/23/2021
economic and Budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. 02/19/2021
February 2021 economic Update The February edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 02/18/2021
Five Year economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 01/21/2021
January 2021 economic Update The January edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/20/2021
January 2021 economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 01/11/2021
December 2020 economic Update The December edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/16/2020
December economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. 12/09/2020
November 2020 economic Update The November edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 11/25/2020
State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 11/24/2020
November economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives and the PICA 2020 Fall Conference. 11/18/2020
Revenue and economic Update FY 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its October Revenue and economic Update. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 10/29/2020
IFO Public Briefing: October 2020 Revenue and economic Update The IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 10/23/2020
October 2020 economic Update The October edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 10/22/2020
Pennsylvania economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. 10/15/2020
September 2020 economic Update The September edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/23/2020
Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook. 09/08/2020
August 2020 economic Update The August edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/25/2020
August 2020 economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee (Democrat). 08/19/2020
July 2020 economic Update The July edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 07/23/2020
June 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. 07/01/2020
economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products. 06/30/2020
June 2020 economic Update The June edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 06/17/2020
May 2020 economic Update The May edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 05/20/2020
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/23/2020
April 2020 economic Update The April edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 04/22/2020
Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19 The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy. 04/08/2020
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 03/25/2020
economic and Budget Update Presentation Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. 02/28/2020
IFO News Stand - February Edition The February edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 02/20/2020
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25. 02/06/2020
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 01/29/2020
OBMD, MTBI, R&D, and KIZ Tax Credit Reviews and PBB Overview for DCED, DOH and DHS IFO presentation of Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, Research and Development and Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Reviews and Performance-Based Budget highlights for the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Health and Department of Human Services. 01/22/2020
Department of Human Services - Part 1 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-Based Budget Board. 01/21/2020
Department of Community and economic Development Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Community and economic Development. 01/21/2020
Department of Health Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Health. 01/20/2020
Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. 01/16/2020
Department of State Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State. 01/16/2020
Department of Environmental Protection Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Environmental Protection. 01/16/2020
IFO News Stand - January Edition The January edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/15/2020
IFO News Stand - December Edition The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/20/2019
Presentation to Grow PA Coalition Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Grow PA Coalition on the Pennsylvania Demographic and economic Outlook. 12/02/2019
FIVE YEAR economic AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release. 11/14/2019
Five Year economic and Budget Outlook Announcement: The IFO will present its Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The Tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on Pennsylvania's tax and business climate. 11/06/2019
IFO News Stand-October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 10/24/2019
IFO NEWS STAND - SEPTEMBER EDITION The September edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/25/2019
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 08/28/2019
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/18/2019
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/20/2019
Budget and economic Update Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants regarding an update on Pennsylvania's budget and economic landscape. 06/11/2019
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/22/2019
economic and Revenue Update Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. 05/16/2019
IFO News Stand - April Edition The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/22/2019
Revenue and economic Update Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on April 17, 2019 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. 04/17/2019
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 03/22/2019
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 03/19/2019
SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24. 03/18/2019
economic & Budget Outlook Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 03/01/2019
IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 12/11/2018
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) state tax rates and (4) state debt levels. 12/03/2018
IFO News Stand - November Edition The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 11/20/2018
PA Fiscal Update and Outlook Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania that reviews highlights from the IFO's recent economic and Budget Outlook. 11/19/2018
FIVE YEAR economic AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release. 11/15/2018
IFO News Stand - October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 10/17/2018
Revenue and economic Update Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on October 9, 2018 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. 10/09/2018
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 08/20/2018
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/24/2018
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/19/2018
Budget and economic Update Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants. 06/12/2018
Budget And economic Update with Property Tax Discussion Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO). Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman also discussed an updated school district property tax forecast and recent proposed legislation. 06/05/2018
Budget and economic Update Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the Allegheny Conference on Community Development and the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia. 06/04/2018
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/16/2018
IFO News Stand - April Edition The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/20/2018
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/18/2018
Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20. The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table 02/16/2018
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 02/01/2018
School District Property Tax Forecast This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property. Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23. 01/18/2018
Responsiveness of State Tax Revenues to economic Growth In response to a legislative request, the IFO compared the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 12/26/2017
Five Year economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share 11/16/2017
Child Care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania The report provides an overview of the economic impacts of state spending on subsidized child care and no-cost pre-kindergarten programs in Pennsylvania. 09/06/2017
Like-Kind Exchange Analysis The IFO responds to a request regarding the economic benefit and tax revenue impact from eliminating Pennsylvania personal income tax on like-kind exchanges. 07/10/2017
Budget and economic Update Director Matt Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA). 06/07/2017
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017) 04/05/2017
Horse Racing Analysis Act 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017) 03/13/2017
economic Forecast Summit Presentation Director Matthew Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Fifth Annual economic Forecast Summit sponsored by the Pennsylvania Chamber Educational Foundation and the Pennsylvania Bankers Association. 02/28/2017
Budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21. The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Download a version for optimized web viewing 02/16/2017
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 02/10/2017
Five Year economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk 11/15/2016
A Look Forward: Pennsylvania’s economic and Revenue Outlook Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar regarding Pennsylvania's economic and revenue outlook. 05/13/2016
The Implications of economic and Demographic Trends for State and Municipal Tax Policy Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation at the Urban economic and Policy Conference sponsored by Drexel University and Econsult Solutions entitled "The Implications of economic and Demographic Trends for State and Municipal Tax Policy." 04/24/2016
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/21/2016
economic Development Incentives This research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives. The report displays this information for the two most recently completed fiscal years (FY): 2013-14 and 2014-15. 03/25/2016
Demographic and economic Trends for Pennsylvania's Older Residents Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the House Aging and Older Adult Services Committee, which provided demographic and economic trends for Pennsylvania’s older residents. 03/23/2016
Budget and economic Update Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic and revenue update to the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce. 01/29/2016
Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21 This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (Updated January 2016) Presentation 01/27/2016
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States The report examines how Pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis to make comparisons. 03/30/2015
State economic Comparison This research brief uses Real GDP, Personal Income and Payroll Employment to compare economic performance in Pennsylvania to four adjacent states and the U.S. over the past decade. 09/30/2014
Uncapping the Film Production Tax Credit: A Fiscal and economic Analysis This report presents the results of an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on the fiscal and economic impacts of eliminating the cap on Pennsylvania’s film production tax credit (FPTC). The report also considers stand-alone tax credits for post-production and digital interactive media services. 05/31/2013
An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania Estimates the fiscal and economic impact of expanding Medicaid (Medical Assistance) under the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). The scope of the analysis is limited to the impact of Medicaid expansion; it does not address the costs, savings or economic effects of the ACA generally. 04/22/2013
index.cfm Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Energy Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases Natural Gas Production Report: 2024 Q3 Energy December 03, 2024 This document uses data from the Hits: 264
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The HPTC differs from other tax credits because short-term economic development is not a primary goal. Rather, the credit seeks to revitalize distressed communities, preserve state and local heritage and facilitate longer- Hits: 98
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity four to five times that amount in new spending, critics believe the tax credit does little to promote economic growth because a large portion of the subsidized expenses flow out of state as wages to non-residents and some recipients would Hits: 92
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Act 20 of 2019 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to “evaluate the economic impact to the Com- monwealth, its industry partners and consumers for any regulation impacting single-use plastics, reusable plastics, auxiliary containers, wrappings Hits: 85
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity non-re- fundable credits, at a rate of $1,000 per job for up to three years. The economic impact of any job creation program is largely dependent on whether the jobs associated with the program would have been created in Hits: 84
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3 Demographic Outlook ......................................................................................................... 5 Dependency Ratios ......................................................................................................... 7 Economic Outlook .............................................................................................................. 9 Federal and State Programs ............................................................................................11 Payroll Employment .......................................................................................................12 Labor Force Trends ........................................................................................................14 Income Trends ..............................................................................................................17 Unspent Federal Stimulus Hits: 81
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or Section 2: Demographic Outlook .............................................................................................. 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19 Hits: 80
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office (August 2019) or Hits: 75
RB-2016-02.pdf Independent Fiscal Of Ðice March 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐2 March 2016 Economic Development Incentives Economic development incentives attempt to stimulate economic growth through various direct (e.g., expenditures) and indirect (e.g., tax credits) spending Hits: 73
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax the reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program (EEEP). The IFO reviewed industry reports that relate to economic incentives for the entertainment industry, held discussions with Hits: 72
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Act 48. The KIZ Tax Credit is unique to Pennsylvania, and only Maryland’s RISE program, which promotes economic and community development around qualified institutions, is somewhat comparable. Other states offer programs with similar goals and objectives, but requirements are generally Hits: 69
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf January 2012 The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-2017 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Forward Act 120 of 2010 establishes the Independent this report does not offer any policy recommendations. The data and projections used by this report come from various sources. Economic projections for the US and Pennsylvania are from the January 2012 forecast by Global Insight, Inc. Demographic projections are from Hits: 69
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from IHS Markit, Wells Fargo and 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Impact of Recent Demographic Trends on the State Labor Force........................................................ 9 Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Consumer Inflation ........................................................................................................................ 14 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 15 Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 17 Tax Revenue Trends and Projections .............................................................................................. 18 Hits: 67
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf The Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2012-13 to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report to IFO website: www.ifo.state.pa.us.  Demographic Outlook  New projections from Penn State Data Center.  Economic Outlook  Latest projections from IHS Global Insight.  Expenditure Outlook  Special focus on healthcare and pensions.  Guest Hits: 64
RB-2017-5.pdf State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Responsiveness of Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction This analysis responds to a request the General Assembly to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The analysis compares the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 1 For this analysis, tax revenue data compiled Hits: 59
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from S&P Global. Demographic projec- 3 Demographic Outlook ............................................................................................................... 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 6 Focus: Labor Force Trends Among Older Adults ................................................................................ 7 Economic Outlook ................................................................................................................... 11 Revenue Outlook ..................................................................................................................... 15 Revenue Trends and Projections .................................................................................................... 16 Personal Income Tax ..................................................................................................................... 17 Sales and Use Tax ......................................................................................................................... 18 Corporate Hits: 59
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax years of historical data were available for review. This analysis examined available data and other issues that determine the net economic return of the VGP Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions Hits: 57
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Research and Development Spending Trends .................................................................................. 16 Research and Development Employment Trends ............................................................................. 17 State Comparison Summary ........................................................................................................... 19 Section 4: Economic Analysis ................................................................................................. 21 Key Findings from RDTC Studies .................................................................................................... 21 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 23 Analysis Caveats............................................................................................................................ 27 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 29 General Findings Hits: 57
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf 5 Keystone Innovation Zone ............................................................................................................... 6 Mobile Broadband Investment .......................................................................................................... 7 Organ and Bone Marrow Donation .................................................................................................... 8 Research and Development .............................................................................................................. 9 Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program .............................................................................. 10 Keystone Special Development Zone Program ................................................................................. 11 Neighborhood Assistance Program.................................................................................................. 12 Resource Enhancement and Protection ........................................................................................... 13 Video Game IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plan includes performance measures and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. In January 2023, the Hits: 57
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity of the direct capital investment on the state economy. This analysis examines the issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania MTBI Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and Hits: 55
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax the tax credit review for the Keystone Special Development Zone (KSDZ) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed relevant research related to economic incentives for brownfield remediation and rede- velopment, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the Hits: 54
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on Hits: 53
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax 6 Administration ................................................................................................................................. 7 Historical Data ................................................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: State Comparison ................................................................................................... 13 Key Findings from Other State Studies ............................................................................................ 15 Section 4: Economic Analysis .................................................................................................. 17 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 17 Non-Economic Impacts .................................................................................................................. 20 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ....................................................................................................... 21 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 21 Specific Recommendations Hits: 52
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on Hits: 52
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Westmoreland County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office terrorism). The report presents a general discussion of the issues involved in divestment legislation, summaries of analytical studies of prior economic sanction programs, including their cost and effectiveness, the concerns raised by State involvement in foreign affairs and reliance upon private Hits: 49
IFO ppt.pdf January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Background • Public Act 120 of 2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year Hits: 48
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf Findings and Recommendations .................................................................................. 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 PRM Tax Credit Overview ......................................................................................................... 5 Goals and Purpose ........................................................................................................................ 5 Administration .............................................................................................................................. 6 State Comparison ...................................................................................................................... 7 Economic Impact ...................................................................................................................... 9 Petrochemical Industry ................................................................................................................. 9 Determining the Economic Impact ............................................................................................... 11 Projected Employment ................................................................................................................ 12 Key Findings from Petrochemical Industry Studies ......................................................................... 13 Tax Credit Plan ........................................................................................................................ 15 General Findings ........................................................................................................................ 15 Specific Hits: 45
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf that contribute to nonprofit waterfront development projects. Alabama, Maryland and New Jersey offer tax credits for contributions to certain nonprofit economic development organizations, but waterfront properties are not targeted. This analysis examined available program data and other relevant factors to assess and Recommendations .................................................................................. 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 WDTC Overview ........................................................................................................................ 5 Goals and Purpose ........................................................................................................................ 5 Administration .............................................................................................................................. 6 Historical Data ............................................................................................................................. 8 State Comparison .................................................................................................................... 11 Economic Impact .................................................................................................................... 13 Other Impacts and Positive Externalities ....................................................................................... 13 Tax Credit Plan ........................................................................................................................ 15 General Findings ........................................................................................................................ 15 Specific Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 16 Key Decision Hits: 39
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Community and Economic Development. All perfor- mance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided Hits: 38
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity www.ifo.state.pa.us \| (717) 230-8293 \| contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook For 2019 and 2020, the U.S. economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic Hits: 37
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook For 2019 and 2020, the U.S. Economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic Hits: 37
Five_Year_Outlook_2024.pdf ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK FISCAL YEARS 2024 25 TO 2029 30 PENNSYLVANIA NOVEMBER 2024 Independent Fiscal Offi ce Rachel Carson State this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from S&P Global. Demographic projections Hits: 37
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook This section presents the economic forecast used to project General Fund, Lottery Fund and Motor License Fund revenues. The Hits: 36
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook This section presents the economic forecast used to project General Fund, Lottery Fund and Motor License Fund revenues. The Hits: 36
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf Recommendations Enacted in 2016, the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit (RJITC) is administered by the Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). Under the program, approved rural growth funds are provided up to $50 million in investment authority, with 60% RJITC is still in the early stages of the program, the IFO does not have sufficient data to compute an economic impact or return on investment (ROI). ▪ Evaluations of similar programs in other states find concerns regarding program effectiveness and efficiency Hits: 35
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf and can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us . Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook This section presents the economic forecast used for the official revenue estimate. The forecast does not assume a recession Hits: 35
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf 12 Environmental Regulation ........................................................................................................... 13 Federal and State Programs .................................................................................................... 15 Abandoned Mine Land Reclamation Program ................................................................................ 15 Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards .......................................................................................... 17 Economic Impact .................................................................................................................... 19 Industry Inputs, Output and Capacity Utilization ........................................................................... 19 Industry Concentration ............................................................................................................... 21 Fossil Fuel Generation Sector ....................................................................................................... 22 Industry Employment and Wages ................................................................................................ 23 Average and Breakeven Prices ..................................................................................................... 24 Economic Impact of CRER Tax Credit ........................................................................................... 27 Avoided Costs and Unrecognized Positive Externalities ................................................................... 29 Tax Credit Plan ........................................................................................................................ 31 General Findings ........................................................................................................................ 31 Hits: 34
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook More than a year has passed since Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus and first death due Hits: 34
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity by the IFO. The numbers contained in this report are projections that may change due to policy decisions and unforeseen economic events. Consistent with the IFO’s mission, the office does not make policy recommendations and this report will be posted Hits: 34
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook More than a year has passed since Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus and first death due Hits: 34
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements, dynamic modeling, and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director Hits: 34
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf and can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook This section presents the economic forecast used for the initial revenue estimate. The forecast does not assume a recession Hits: 33
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data Hits: 31
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf Please note that although the IFO requested five years of ETC data, in some cases the Department of Community and Economic Development was only able to supply two years. Currently, 19 states provide some form of tax credit to offset contributions 7 Administration ................................................................................................................................. 7 Historical Data ................................................................................................................................ 8 Historical Private School Trends ..................................................................................................... 17 State Comparisons .................................................................................................................. 19 Reports Published by Other States.................................................................................................. 20 Economic Analysis ................................................................................................................... 25 Tax Credit Plan ........................................................................................................................ 29 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 29 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 29 Key Decision Points ....................................................................................................................... 31 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 32 Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 33 Hits: 30
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director Hits: 30
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report in Novem- ber. However, due to the partial-year budget, the IFO has postponed release of that document to a Hits: 30
RB 2019 RACP.pdf RACP projects by county.  A summary of debt limit changes to the program.  A discussion of the potential economic impact to local units.  An analysis of the potential fiscal impact from the proposed debt limit reduction.  A grant program administered by the Governor’s Budget Office (GBO). It provides funding for the acquisition and construction of local economic, cultural, civic, recreational and historical improvement projects that cannot be primarily funded by other state programs. The sale of general Hits: 29
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf the firm must maintain the new jobs/increased payroll for a minimum of five years. The Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) may award up to $4 million in tax credits annually. In addition, DCED may issue unissued or recaptured credits from prior fiscal years. The purpose of the credit is to generate economic development through the creation of family-sustaining Pennsylvania manufacturing jobs. The general findings of this report are as follows: ▪ DCED Hits: 27
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data Hits: 26
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the economic impact due to the transfer of funds directly to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups are based on to state residents since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and provides a brief discussion of the following provisions: ▪ Economic Impact Payments (EIPs), commonly referred to as stimulus checks. ▪ Expanded unemployment compensation (UC) programs. ▪ Expansion of the Child Tax Credit Hits: 24
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook The economic outlook is the starting point for the General Fund revenue estimate be- cause most revenue Hits: 24
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook \| Page 1 Economic Outlook The economic outlook is the starting point for the General Fund revenue estimate be- cause most revenue Hits: 24
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf commonly used to compare the relative burden of taxes across states. The third section discusses the entities who bear the economic and statutory burden of the tax. Due to recent federal rate cuts, a number of analyses can be surveyed for state-level profits because those amounts are determined by policy choices (e.g., apportionment formulas, reporting methods), as opposed to economic criteria. Table 2 displays the personal income and per capita measures for state CNIT revenues for FY 2015-16. These Hits: 24
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf 11. The Keystone Pension Report, Governor’s Office of the Budget, 1 November 2012, p. 7. Independent Fiscal Office, The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, November 2 2012, pp. 49-50. Independent Fiscal Office, The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, November 3 2012, p. 49. Public Employee Retirement Commission, Status Report Hits: 24
NAP-2018-03.pdf distressed areas or support neighborhood conservation. 1 This tax credit program is administered by the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) and consists of five components: (1) the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit, (2) the Special Program Priorities, (3 unchanged. This report provides an overview of each component of the NAP, explains how the program works and estimates the economic impact of state spending for this purpose. 2 PROGRAM OVERVIEW The Neighborhood Assistance Program utilizes tax credits to encourage private Hits: 22
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf states and countries. This analysis describes the event, the amount and form of state support provided, and evaluates the state economic impact. A brief description of the motivation and methodology used for this analysis can be found at the end of the area in the months leading up to the event to train on the course. The Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) awarded a $70,000 grant to the Happy Valley Adventure Bureau (HVAB), Centre County’s tourism department, to Hits: 22
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf Economic & Revenue Update Pennsylvania House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of Hits: 21
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements, dynamic modeling, and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Hits: 21
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the past year, and all reports are available on Hits: 21
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these reports are available on the office Hits: 21
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these reports are available on the office Hits: 21
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf Wage Rates by State ............................................................................... 8 Increasing Minimum Wage to $15 ........................................................................... 9 Marijuana Taxes .................................................................................................. 10 Lottery and Gaming Trends .................................................................................. 12 Revenues, Economics and Demographics Revenue Trends .................................................................................................. 13 Economic Trends ................................................................................................. 14 Jobs and Real Earnings ........................................................................................ 15 Philadelphia CPI-U ............................................................................................... 16 Consumer Wealth and Debt .................................................................................. 17 Demographic Projections ...................................................................................... 18 Demographics Hits: 20
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” The report contains Hits: 19
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf This research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The brief divides economic development incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar Hits: 19
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf This research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The brief divides economic development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts Hits: 19
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2024_Final.pdf posted to IFO website at conclusion. Demographics not discussed in presentation. See full report posted on IFO website. Slide 2 Economic and Budget Outlook If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible. For questions, please submit to contact box. PA Annual Economic Forecast Slide 3 Economic and Budget Outlook 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Real GDP 2.5% 2.1% 1 Hits: 19
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be representative of employment trends for MRO service providers. 11 U.S. Department of Commerce, 2002 and 2007 Economic Census, Product Line Statistics by Kind of Business. 12 A fixed based operator is “a commercial business granted the right by the Hits: 18
Kling_Presentation.pdf Congressional Budget Office Presentation for the Independent Fiscal Office, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2018 Jeffrey Kling Associate Director for Economic Analysis Transparency at CBO For more information, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update on Transparency at CBO (August 2018), www CBO estimates the operating costs of Air Force aircraft  A working paper on how CBO produces its 10-year economic forecast Explaining Analytical Methods: Providing Technical Information 7 CBO Explaining Analytical Methods: CBO’s Forecasting Models That working paper on Hits: 18
MER-2014-04.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 17
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zones Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax Hits: 16
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf i.e., application against tax liability). Data on state spending, grants and loans are from the Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). Figures for certain tax credits and spending programs that were not available from either agency are from the by $24.2 million (28%) from FY 2020-21 to FY 2021-22. The program was designed to encourage investment, economic growth, and employment in designated areas of the Commonwealth. For FY 2022-23, the program estimate is $114 million. • Taxpayers Hits: 16
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf inception of the office in September 2011, and currently he supervises a staff of eight. Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2014-15 Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $1.675 million Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Hits: 16
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf and can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Forecast \| Page 1 Economic Forecast The economic forecast used for this revenue estimate assumes modest real economic growth and elevated inflation relative to historical Hits: 15
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf million) and escheats collections ($118 million). Other revenue sources were relatively close to estimate. Table 2 (next page) displays relevant economic growth rates for calendar year (CY) 2020 used by the IFO for its Mid-Year Update (January 2020) and the Dividends 6.0% -10.0% -20.0% Corporate Profits 3.0% -15.0% -25.0% Table 2 CY 2020 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates Notes: Excludes impact of federal stimulus. Corporate profits are domestic profits for non-financial firms. Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 15
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf and can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Forecast \| Page 1 Economic Forecast The economic forecast used for this revenue estimate assumes modest real economic growth and elevated inflation relative to historical Hits: 15
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS & THE PA ECONOMY PA State Association of Boroughs Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 MATTHEW through 2025.  Disclaimer: trends may not translate to all local units. Aging’s impact on the state economy.  Economic growth. Job Creation. Spending patterns.  Service sector jobs. Slower growth. Housing pressures. Transition to local unit trends.  Earned Hits: 15
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. This submission includes data, tables and legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists reports published by the IFO during the past year, and all reports are available on the Hits: 15
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Economic Forecast and Business Leadership Summit February 2024 February 22, 2024 Good Afternoon. On Today’s Agenda…. PA Economy What happened to that recession? Some Caveats Data quality has deteriorated. Lower response rates. Larger revisions. 3 Bold Predictions Feb 2024 Economic Summit Slide 1 March 2020, economy shuts down. What changed? Some data that track same metric tell different stories (e Hits: 15
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent economic indicators provide different perspectives on the state and national economies. Some national indicators suggest an increasing risk of recession. Those Hits: 15
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 May 8.2% 99.3 5.6% 8.7% Hits: 15
Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf 0 33.6 35.9 36.0 36.0 Child and Dependent Care Enhancement -- -- -- -- 25.4 83.3 Entertainment and Economic Enhancement 5.6 4.0 4.0 3.6 24.0 24.0 Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing 0.0 0.0 2022-23, taxpayers claimed $70.6 million and $24.0 million for the Film Production Tax Credit and the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, respectively. The amounts listed for FY 2023-24 reflect the current program caps, $100 million for the Film Hits: 14
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses 5 Raising the Minimum Wage ...................................................................................................... 7 Comparison to Other States ............................................................................................................. 7 Recent Minimum Wage Studies ........................................................................................................ 9 Border County Comparison ............................................................................................................ 10 Economic and Revenue Impact ...................................................................................................... 12 - This page intentionally left blank. - Introduction \| Page 1 Introduction This report provides revenue estimates for the Hits: 14
MER-2015-06.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 14
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by Hits: 14
MER-2015-03.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 13
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 21, 2021 Today’s Presentation Four Parts  Demographics a contracting labor force  Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  Expenditures significant growth Hits: 13
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor Hits: 13
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 181.7 4.3% 11 Hits: 13
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf reference map of county names.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two informative and current measures of economic well-being at the county level. It should be noted that the metrics do not control for cost of living The income metric used for this brief is personal income. That measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than Hits: 12
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. 2 The Independent residents For 2014 typical migrant is ~31 years old typical PA resident is ~41 years old 11 12.May.2016 Economic Impacts 12 12.May.2016 Labor Force May Contract Aging of Workforce Labor Participation Rates Must Increase Composition of Income Hits: 12
MTR-2016-06.pdf 969.2% FYTD $30,902 $30,258 $644 Growth 1.0% 2.6% -41.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INCREASES In recent months, U.S. economic uncertainty has increased due to weak job growth, tepid business investment and pressure on corporate profits. Those economic indicators can Hits: 12
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf PA Payroll Employment Gains Moderate; New UI Claims Remain Low The latest poll of economic forecasters shows that one-half project the US economy will enter into a recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor Hits: 12
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf PA New UI Claims and Unemployment Rate at All-Time Record Lows The latest poll of economic forecasters projects a 60% probability for a US economic recession within the next year, up 10 percentage points from the month prior. This economic update uses recent state labor Hits: 12
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf Job Openings Increase in September as State Labor Market Remains Tight The latest poll of economic forecasters projects a 60% probability for a U.S. economic recession within the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy Hits: 12
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdf Labor Force Participation Contracts as Job Openings Remain Plentiful The latest Wall Street Journal poll of economic forecasters projects a 63% probability for a U.S. economic recession within the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy Hits: 12
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf February Payroll Jobs Gains Revert to Pre-COVID Average This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted Hits: 12
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf which increased households’ disposable income. The IFO estimates that $50.7 billion flowed to state residents in the form of economic impact payments and the extra $600 or $300 weekly unemployment compensation payments. FY 2020-21 lottery sales through March are the month, increasing $0.1 million (+5.6%) over the prior year. The gains for online games are attributable to economic stimulus, limited entertainment options during the pandemic, seasonal variation (e.g., March Madness) and phasing-in of certain games towards Hits: 12
MER-2014-07.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 12
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Annual Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Report and both presentations will be posted to IFO website at conclusion. ▪ Questions will be addressed at of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and Georgetown University. From 2006 to 2009, Dr. Swagel was Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department, where he was responsible for analysis of a wide range of economic issues, including policies Hits: 12
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Welcome to the the Fiscal Affairs Program at NCSL, where she specializes in state budgets, federal stimulus funds, state and local relations, and economic development topics. She is a staff liaison to NCSL’s Labor and Economic Development Standing Committee and to the Pennsylvania Hits: 12
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force Hits: 12
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the Hits: 12
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Dec 7.8% 201.0 4.3% Hits: 12
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 8.1% 156.7 6.1% 8.0% 76.4 Hits: 12
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf mid-year update for FY 2022-23 was released on January 31, 2023. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year. The text that follows discusses the performance of revenues are excluded because the non-receipt of the scheduled transfer was attributable to a court ruling, as opposed to economic or technical factors that could have been anticipated by revenue forecasters. Nearly all revenue sources came in under forecast, with Hits: 11
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity 4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analy- sis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This analysis uses various data Hits: 11
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Presentation Overview Economic Outlook o Changes to forecast. o Consumer spending is crucial – primary driver of economic growth. Revenue Forecast o Estimates vs. Year‐to‐Date actuals. o Outlook for rest of fiscal year and next fiscal 2013 2013 Revenue Conference 2 Pennsylvania Forecast 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 3 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. 2011 2012 2013 Hits: 11
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf the lives of PA residents ▪ NAP – incentivizes investment in distressed communities ▪ REAP – reduces water pollution from agricultural operations ▪ EEEP – increases economic activity in the live entertainment sector ▪ VGP – encourages expansion of the video game production industry ▪ KSDZ – redevelopment of former industrial impacts (i.e., positive externalities or spillovers) ▪ Enhanced property values ▪ Health benefits of cleaner environment April 26, 2021 1 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis has 3 key steps ▪ What share of spending is incentivized by the tax Hits: 11
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity the calendar year. The measure is different than state personal income reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts because personal income is a measure of “economic” income. Economic income is an appropriate Hits: 11
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf following trends were observed: Credit card debt declined significantly (-11.3%) in 2020 when households received stimulus payments to alleviate economic hardship due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the latest data show that contraction has completely reversed. After strong growth whether these trends will impact the full holiday shopping season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday online sales were strong. Monthly Economic Update November 2023 Year-Over-Year (YOY) Growth Rates for Pennsylvania Debt Balances by Type Note: 2023 is the YOY Hits: 11
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf PA Homes Sold Decline by 20% from Prior Year; Listings Remain Flat This economic update uses recent housing market data to assess the performance of the spring housing market, which typically runs from March market, decreased by 1.8 ppts from the prior year to 99.2% (higher values indicate a stronger market). Monthly Economic Update May 2023 NAR Listings Homes Sold Sales Price Days on Market U.S. Avg. 30-Yr Rate 2022 February Hits: 11
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf to two-thirds chance of at least a mild recession during the upcoming year. For the next several months, this economic update will use state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy is heading towards recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The specific data that will be tracked Hits: 11
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf there is a one-third to two-thirds chance of at least a mild recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy might enter into recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics that are Hits: 11
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf Mortgage Rate Growth Moderates Ahead of Peak 2023 Housing Season This economic update uses recent housing market data to assess the performance of the spring housing market, which typically runs from March increases by $630 ($7,560) for a mortgage with a 6.5% rate compared to a 3.0% rate. Monthly Economic Update April 2023 NAR Listings Homes Sold Sales Price Days on Market U.S. Avg. 30-Yr Rate 2022 January Hits: 11
MER-2015-02.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 11
MER-2014-08.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 11
MER-2014-06.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 11
MER-2014-05.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 11
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible IFO will issue final revenue estimate June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT rate reduction not evident in first 3 Inflation continues to decelerate ▪ April Philadelphia CPI-U = 4.7% \| December to 3.8% May 24, 2023 2 US Economic Forecasts May 24, 2023 3 Annual Growth Rates 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP IHS Markit 5.9% 2.1% Hits: 11
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible IFO will issue final revenue estimate June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT rate reduction not evident in first 3 Inflation continues to decelerate ▪ April Philadelphia CPI-U = 4.7% \| December to 3.8% May 24, 2023 2 US Economic Forecasts May 24, 2023 3 Annual Growth Rates 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP IHS Markit 5.9% 2.1% Hits: 11
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22 Hits: 11
EPLC_April_2024.pdf Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Matthew Knittel, Director Economic & Budget Update Education Policy and Leadership Center April 5, 2024 April 5, 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office Most states have a fiscal office \| PA is unique Office Responsibilities Slide 2 Education Policy & Leadership Center • Revenue estimates \| Economic & demographic trends • Economic analysis of executive revenue proposals • 5-Year Economic & Budget Outlook • Performance-based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews • Pension Hits: 11
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a r c h 2 0 1 3 Jan 7.9% 195.0 4.4% 11.4% 73 Hits: 11
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf Act 120 of 2010. Matthew Knittel serves as director for a staff of nine individuals. Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2013-14 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $1 Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Hits: 11
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Nov-12 7.7% 138.7 4 Hits: 11
Releases trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. Full Report November 2024 Revenue Update December 02, 2024 \| Revenue & Economic Update The Commonwealth collected $2.93 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $130 million (-4.2% living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year). Full Report Treasury Collections Begin to Contract November 25, 2024 \| Economics and Other After peaking in FY2023-24 at $720 million, Treasury collections are projected to drop by $321 million (-45% Hits: 11
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 Brewers’ Tax Credit Overview ................................................................................................... 5 Goals and Purpose .......................................................................................................................... 5 Administration ................................................................................................................................. 6 Historical Data ................................................................................................................................ 6 State Comparisons .................................................................................................................. 11 Economic Analysis ................................................................................................................... 13 Tax Credit Plan ........................................................................................................................ 15 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 15 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 15 Key Decision Points ....................................................................................................................... 16 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 16 Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 17 issued or carried forward three years. The program is capped at $5.0 million annually. The credit seeks to generate economic activity and create jobs related to malt and brewed beverage manufacturing. The general findings of this report are as follows Hits: 10
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf mid-year update for FY 2021-22 was released on January 31, 2022. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.  May Update This revenue estimate occurs in expected. For the entire fiscal year, General Fund tax revenues increased by only $31 million (0.1%), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank Hits: 10
Pirates_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf IFO Releases Economic Impact Report on the Pittsburgh Pirates and PNC Park Harrisburg, PA - July 10, 2024 - At the request of Pennsylvania State Counties) and Jim Gregory (Blair and Huntingdon Counties), the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) performed an analysis that measures the 2023 economic footprint attributable to the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Major League Baseball (MLB) operations at PNC Park. An economic footprint analysis is a Hits: 10
Phillies_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf IFO Releases Economic Impact Report on the Philadelphia Phillies and Citizens Bank Park Harrisburg, PA - July 10, 2024 - At the request of Pennsylvania Counties) and Jim Gregory (Blair and Huntingdon Counties), the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) performed an analysis that measures the 2023 economic footprint attributable to the Philadelphia Phillies’ Major League Baseball (MLB) operations at Citizens Bank Park. An economic footprint analysis is Hits: 10
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the for passenger rail and bus operations 9 Aviation.......................................................... Improve aviation services throughout the state 10 Commercial and Other Multimodal................... Increase economic use of transportation infrastructure 11 Broadband and Technology Initiatives............... Safely implement emerging technologies 12 Administration................................................ Provide organizational leadership and support Hits: 10
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity the calendar year. The measure is different than state personal income reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts because personal income is a measure of “economic” income. Economic income is an appropriate Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdf who relocate typically purchase goods such as appliances and furniture, or make specific upgrades (e.g., kitchens and bathrooms). Monthly Economic Update October 2023 Homes Listed Homes Sold Sales Price U.S. Avg. 30-Yr Rate Realty Transfer Tax 2022 Q1 1% 14.0% 19.6% 10-Year Note 15 3.64 3.82 3.96 4.09 4.57 Leading Economic Index (LEI) 16 106.7 106.1 105.8 105.4 104.6 Quarterly Data 2022.2 2022.3 2022 Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf to September 2019. Pennsylvania Personal Income Grows by 12.0% in Q2 On September 24, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data for 2020 Q2. Pennsylvania personal income grew 12.0% in the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 34.0% in 2020 Q2, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 2. National real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.4%, contracting in all 50 Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdf Employment Measures Post Strong Gains in January 2023 This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdf a $220,000 mortgage by $225 per month (+19.3%) and $2,700 per year compared to last year. Monthly Economic Update June 2023 NAR Listings Homes Sold Sales Price Days on Market U.S. Avg. 30-Yr Rate 2022 March 3% 0.9% 1.2% 10-Year Note 14 3.53 3.92 3.49 3.45 3.64 Leading Economic Index (LEI) 15 110.3 110.0 108.6 107.5 106.7 Quarterly Data 2022.1 2022.2 2022 Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf southwest regions. U.S. Personal Income Records Strong Growth in April On May 29, 2020 the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released personal income statistics for April 2020. Compared to the prior year, data show that U.S. personal income stay-at-home measures to help contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Consumers Spent Roughly Half of Federal Economic Impact Payments The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released a working paper that measured the effects of COVID-19 Economic Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdf year” effects that will likely fade as energy price comparisons to the prior year show a less dramatic decline. Monthly Economic Update July 2023 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 All Items 2.1% 0 9% 1.2% 17.6% 10-Year Note 15 3.92 3.49 3.45 3.64 3.82 Leading Economic Index (LEI) 16 110.0 108.6 107.5 106.7 n.a. Quarterly Data 2022.1 2022.2 2022 Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdf All Items CPI-U growth will likely accelerate from June (3.1%). Those data will be released September 13. Monthly Economic Update August 2023 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 All Items 2.2% 0 2% 17.6% 11.1% 10-Year Note 15 3.49 3.45 3.64 3.82 3.96 Leading Economic Index (LEI) 16 108.6 107.5 106.7 106.1 105.8 Quarterly Data 2022.2 2022.3 2022 Hits: 10
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25, 2017 Presentation has three parts.  Economic update. Unexpected broad weakness.  Revenue update for FY 2016-17.  Revenue forecast for FY 2017-18. Theme: What Hits: 10
MER-2015-01.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 10
MER-2014-11.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 10
MER-2014-09.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 10
MER-2014-02.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average Hits: 10
MER-2013-12.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average Hits: 10
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office \| November 2019 1 Welcome Katherine Loughead \| Tax Foundation  Modernizing PA Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner \| Institute for Taxation & Economic Policy  Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Matthew Knittel \| Independent Fiscal Office  Pennsylvania demographic, economic and fiscal outlook Hits: 10
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf big picture II Looking Back: 2020-2023 ▪ Did any borrowers continue to pay? \| who was impacted? ▪ Size of repayment pause \| economic and revenue impact (IMPLAN) ▪ Supporting data and research \| caveats and technical issues III Looking Forward: 2024 ▪ New SAVE income driven repayment (IDR) plan \| lots of uncertainty ▪ Economic and revenue impact (IMPLAN) Disclaimer: not an endorsement/critique of any modeling software! October 3, 2023 1 I. Student Loan Hits: 10
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf No governing board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at request of General Assembly.  Office makes NO rate (6.49%) proposals are effective or phased-in beginning 1/1/19. Source: FY 2017-18 Executive Budget. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 6 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP 1.3% 1 Hits: 10
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals Hits: 10
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor Hits: 10
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Jun 8.2% 66.7 4 Hits: 10
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf This report provides an updated forecast of statewide school district property taxes based on the latest published revenue data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The most recent school district property tax data published by the Pennsylvania Department and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2022-23 through FY 2025-26 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published Hits: 9
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf October Revenue and Economic Update FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office October 29, 2020 Modest Improvement to 2020 Economic Forecast October 29, 2020 1 June 2020 Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 2.6% 2.3% -5.6% Hits: 9
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf year that ends in June. 4 ) The top bank of figures show amounts reported to the Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) or Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) by calendar year or school year. The middle portion of the table bottom half controls for changes in millage rates and reassessments to allow for a clearer picture of the impact of economic distress on collections. In addition to economic distress, other factors can impact growth rates such as (1) the share of Hits: 9
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook INITIAL REVENUE ESTIMATE FISCAL YEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May All Other -44 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. JUA is Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association. May.01.2018 4 Economic Outlook May.01.2018 5 PA wage growth accelerates.  Statewide annual wage growth ~+4.3%.  Split: +1.0% Hits: 9
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx pay far above average \| many are export based ▪ Positive synergies, spillovers, clustering and agglomeration effects January 23, 2020 2 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis has 3 steps ▪ Determine the amount/share of spending incentivized ▪ Determine type of spending and industries affected ▪ Use Hits: 9
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf residents during the calendar year. The measure is different than state personal income reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts because personal income is a measure of “economic” income. Economic income is an appropriate and consistent measure of overall welfare, but it is less useful for projecting tax Hits: 9
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf residents during the calendar year. The measure is different than state personal income reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts because personal income is a measure of “economic” income. Economic income is an appropriate and consistent measure of overall welfare, but it is less useful for projecting tax Hits: 9
NFIB_Feb_2024.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Economic Forum February 2024 February 5, 2024 PA Economics: Recent Trends Slide 1 Feb 2024 Economic Forum 2021 2022 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 2023.4 Wages-Salaries Hits: 9
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf Non-partisan vs. bi-partisan.  Primary duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. A Quick Tour Budget Status.  Where are we? How did we get here? Demographic Outlook.  Suggests economic and budgetary challenges. Economic Outlook.  Solid labor market, but consumption tepid. Budget Outlook.  Revenue and expenditures. Pensions. Gaming Hits: 9
MTR-2016-10.pdf the labor market, as some discouraged workers re-entered the labor force and sought employment. For 2014 and 2015, improving economic conditions and a more competitive labor market encouraged firms to boost wages to attract and retain quality employees, which caused longer term, much of the sudden fall in 2016 is likely due to very low inflation and cautious outlooks for economic growth. Partial data for 2016 Q3 and Q4 suggest a modest acceleration of average wage growth. For 2017, analysts anticipate Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf 0 billion (2018). U.S. Personal Income Expands in 2020 Q2 On August 28, 2020 the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released personal income data for 2020 Q2. Compared to the prior year, data show that U.S. personal income than offset by an increase in transfer payments (83.6%). The large increase was driven by the distribution of federal economic impact payments and growth in unemployment insurance which includes Pandemic Unemployment Compensation Payments, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf as the state economy received a significant boost from the latest round of federal stimulus. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has not released state-level data on personal income, but adjusted withholding trends can be used to provide the largest single month increase in the series’ 21-year history. The higher job openings rate is a sign that economic activity is accelerating and generating increased demand for labor. At the U.S. level, the total job openings rate was Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf reports on a weekly survey of over 200 businesses in the Third District (Eastern PA-NJ-DE) to track ongoing economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Virus impacts and relief efforts for the week ending May 10 are compared to Well Being Trust forecasted the number of additional deaths of despair due to the COVID-19 Recession based on three economic recovery forecasts (same pattern as the Great Recession, twice as fast or four times as fast). The analysis finds for Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf New UI Claims Return to Pre-COVID Levels This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf 2021 YOY growth rate for the Philadelphia All Items CPI-U was +1.0%. Since then, $21.0 billion of Economic Impact Payments were injected into the state economy by the federal Consolidated Appropriations Act and American Rescue Plan. A second that demand-driven inflation will continue until these excess savings are reduced further or higher interest rates begin to restrain economic growth. Monthly Economic Update January 2022 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf Over 70% of Economic Impact Payments Saved or Used to Pay Down Debt The New York Federal Reserve released findings from two pandemic-related surveys. Survey recipients were asked to classify how they spent the first round of Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) and how they would spend a second-round payment. Respondents reported the share of the payment used Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf than anticipated. This monthly update presents data for factors that drive that outcome, and the impact on national and state economic metrics. For context, the most recent growth rate for the Philadelphia metro CPI-U is 5.6% (October year-over- testified that the Federal Reserve is reconsidering its schedule for the taper of debt purchases and future interest rates. Monthly Economic Update December 2021 Levels YOY Growth Rate Item Period 2019 2020 2021 19-20 20-21 1 Philly CPI-U Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf payments is visible in the U.S. personal income data for 2020 Q2 published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Despite wages and salaries falling by 7.1% from 2020 Q1, personal income grew 7.3% in 2020 Q2 due to an influx of state and federal support through UC payments and other economic stimulus measures. Household Debt Declines for the First Time Since 2014 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf BFS tracks business applications for employer businesses as a measure of business formation, which acts a leading indicator of state economic activity. During the period of March 8 through April 11, 2020 business applications fell 34.3% over the prior year due to entrepreneurs simply delaying business formation due to concerns over the pandemic, others may reflect a permanent loss in economic activity. U.S. Consumer Prices Decline in March A recent WSJ article highlights the impact of COVID-19 on March Hits: 9
MER-2015-04.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 9
MER-2014-12.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 9
MER-2014-10.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net Hits: 9
MER-2014-03.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average Hits: 9
MER-2014-01.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average Hits: 9
MER-2013-11.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed Hits: 9
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf this informational hearing. The IFO was created by Act 120 of 2010 to provide revenue projections and other budget and economic analysis to the General Assembly and the public. The office currently has 10 staff, including myself. I was originally appointed of the calendar year. Each year, we typically receive a number of requests from members of the General Assembly for economic or budgetary analysis. Whenever possible, we work with members to craft a response that will be informative and useful. If Hits: 9
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO).  Who we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines two 11 once fully staffed by fall.  Two transfers from GA, others are recent grads.  Nearly all analysts have economics background.  Staff are “number crunchers”. Data analysis.  Not an accounting or “watchdog” agency. 10.Jul.2012 3 2012 Hits: 9
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK FY 2017-18 to FY 2022-23 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania NOVEMBER 2017 Welcome Matthew Knittel \| Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Balance Sheet, Demographic and Economic Outlook Mark Ryan \| Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Revenue and Expenditure Detail, Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson\| The PEW Charitable Hits: 9
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Office January 31, 2022 Today’s Presentation Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Corporate net income, sales tax, personal income, inheritance Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 \| wage-price spiral taking hold? Unknown factors (mostly negative) ▪ Stock January ▪ Fed tightening and raising interest rates ▪ Expiration of remaining relief: student loans, SNAP, rent assistance January 31, 2022 1 Economic Forecast: Stronger Wages and Inflation January 31, 2022 2 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Real Hits: 9
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf Mid-Year Update MID-YEAR Revenue Update Commonwealth of Pennsylvania January 29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts.  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data and tax reform.  Federal tax cut: economic and General Fund impact.  Revenues: FY 17-18 update; preliminary look at FY 18-19. Public presentation later today Hits: 9
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided Hits: 9
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Oct-12 7.9% 170.3 4 Hits: 9
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Jul 8.3% 104.3 4.2% 8 Hits: 9
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf Taxation of internet sales (permanent gain)  Corporate profits (both permanent and temporary)  Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor market and consumer sales May 20, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections May 20, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP June 2018 0.6% 1 Hits: 8
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf been effective for three and one-half years. This research brief uses the latest student loan data and the IMPLAN economic model to quantify the state economic and General Fund revenue impact from the resumption of student loan repayments. For Pennsylvania residents with student loan debt, the Hits: 8
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2018 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018-19 to 2023-24, is available for download Hits: 8
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf Presentation to PICPA December 3, 2014 Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania’s Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20 Provide Five-Year Projections For: • Pennsylvania Demographics • Pennsylvania Economics • General Fund Revenues • General Fund Expenditures Why Do We Do It? • Establish a neutral baseline to assess fiscal situation. • Identify Hits: 8
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf Budget and Economic Update Presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office June 11, 2019 Taxation of internet sales (permanent gain)  Corporate profits (both permanent and temporary)  Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor and housing markets June 11, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Hits: 8
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the executive agencies for the benefit of all Pennsylvanians. Pennsylvania Council on the Arts (PCA): To strengthen the cultural, educational, and economic vitality of Pennsylvania's communities through the arts. Pennsylvania Human Relations Commission (PHRC): To promote equal opportunity for all and Hits: 8
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdf residents during the calendar year. The measure is different than state personal income reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts because personal income is a measure of “economic” income. Economic income is an appropriate and consistent measure of overall welfare, but it is less useful for projecting tax Hits: 8
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf residents during the calendar year. The measure is different than state personal income reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts because personal income is a measure of “economic” income. Economic income is an appropriate and consistent measure of overall welfare, but it is less useful for projecting tax Hits: 8
MTR-2019-07.pdf million (84.3 percent), due to a one-time payment of $30.4 million received in July 2018. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office \| July 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff n.a. Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate that will be published in August 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Hits: 8
MTR-2016-12.pdf Growth 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. STATE GDP CONTRACTS The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for the second quarter of 2016. The release includes revised and second quarters and first half of 2016) for Pennsylvania and contiguous states. The growth of real GDP measures total economic output (adjusted for inflation), and can be used to evaluate the rate at which a state economy expands or contracts Hits: 8
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Marcellus Shale Coalition Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 31, 2022 1 Overview A sizable budget surplus this year ▪ Revenues billion in federal relief supports current year budget ▪ Proposed for FY 22-23: Minimum wage increase \| corporate tax changes Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 \| wage-price spiral taking hold? Natural gas trends ▪ National and Hits: 8
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf stability. This metric, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE index) from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, reflects price changes of goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers. A WSJ article notes that despite the and business services (+12,100, +1.6%), retail trade (+5,600, +1.0%) and arts-entertainment (+500, +0.8%). Monthly Economic Update March 2021 Monthly Data Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.0% Hits: 8
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf include the extension of the existing moratorium on evictions as well as student loans, and substantial emergency assistance for renters. Economic impact payments of $600 to $1,200 per eligible adult (plus amounts for dependents) are also being discussed, which could since inception. The IFO will release an updated projection of CY 2020 collections (remitted April 2021) in late January. Monthly Economic Update December 2020 Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 10.4% Hits: 8
Letter_to_JSGC.pdf to provide technical analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the to this letter. Based on these unauthorized alterations, the IFO has reservations regarding the provision of future technical assistance or economic analysis. The IFO cannot stand behind the final product if its submissions are altered without consent, consultation or notice. As Hits: 8
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast.  General weakness. All forecasts underperform.  An exception: PA labor market posts solid gains.  Recent U.S Hits: 8
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf CBO Supports the Congress For information about the host, see www.ifo.state.pa.us. 1 CBO Provides Budget and Economic Analysis to Support the Congressional Budget Process For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/about. 2 For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data. CBO prepares, and periodically updates, a 10-year budget baseline that serves as a benchmark for measuring the effects Hits: 8
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2021-22 through FY 2025-26 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Forecast Overview Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate is the result of flat millage rates combined with a projected tax base reduction of 1.5 percent due to economic distress related to the COVID-19 pandemic. A July 2020 IFO report projected that current-year school district property taxes Hits: 8
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity contained in Act 48. The OBMD differs from most tax credits because program goals do not include increased economic devel- opment or job creation. Instead, the OBMD seeks to improve outcomes for patients awaiting organ and bone marrow transplants by reducing Hits: 7
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf Budget Roundtable Fiscal Year 2023-24 January 31, 2024 Overview and Notes Mid-Year Update presented Jan 30 • Revenue and economic update • A few demographic, revenue and economic slides added to provide context IFO required to examine all revenue proposals in the Executive Budget Slide 2 Jan 2024 Hits: 7
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf mid-year update for FY 2020-21 was released on January 21, 2021. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.  May Update This revenue estimate occurs in expected. For the entire fiscal year, General Fund tax revenues increased by only $31 million (0.1%), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank Hits: 7
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity update for FY 2019-20 was released on January 28, 2020. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.  May Update This revenue estimate occurs in May of Hits: 7
REU-2020-02.pdf 64.7 million (29.5 percent) above estimate. The overage is driven by stronger than expected escheats revenues. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office \| February 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff 8 64.7 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to the IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Hits: 7
REU-2020-01.pdf projections. This overage is partially offset by the lower than projected licenses and fees revenues (-$17.4 million). Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office \| January 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff official estimate published in June 2019. Cigarette 64.6 58.0 6.6 618.7 616.5 2.2 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Hits: 7
REU-2019-12.pdf tax revenues exceed estimate by $61.7 million. The overage is driven by escheat revenues ($87.8 million). Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office \| December 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff 199.8 61.7 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Hits: 7
REU-2019-11.pdf shortfall in licenses and fees is a timing issue related to the payment of fees for gaming licenses. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office \| November 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff 173.4 63.9 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Hits: 7
REU-2019-10.pdf portion of this gain is offset by licenses and fees collections which are $20.2 million under estimate. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office \| October 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through October October Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff official estimate published in June 2019. Cigarette 98.4 92.9 5.5 353.4 356.5 -3.1 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Hits: 7
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 16, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, is available for download Hits: 7
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a long-term economic and budget outlook for Pennsylvania, according to director Matthew Knittel. The report, entitled The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012- Hits: 7
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce February 12, 2015 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office Budget and Economic Update What Is the Independent Fiscal Office? • Our role in the budget process. • Other products and publications. Tax Revenues and Deficits. • Tax revenues through January 2015. • Revisions to FY 2014-15 General Fund revenues. • Implications for projected budget deficits. Latest Economic Developments. • Gas prices. Consumer confidence. Low inflation. 12.Feb.2015 2 Today’s Presentation  Act 120 of 2010 Creates Hits: 7
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf o What impact from phase-out of Defined Benefit plans? o Are savings and investments sufficient? Income less Dependent on Economic Growth 12.June.2014 15 Trend: Less Reliance on Wage Income 12.June.2014 16 2007 2011 18-34 35- Construction. For PA, Healthcare & Social Assistance Sector is Vital o ~19% of private sector jobs in 2013. o ~11% of economic output in 2013. Trend Continues due to Aging Demographic o Will impact economic growth. 12.June.2014 17 Trend: Jobs Hits: 7
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the A Look Forward: Pennsylvania’s Economic and Revenue Outlook 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation • Solid Labor Market • Some Wage Weakness Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Hits: 7
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of Hits: 7
NFIB_Presentation.pdf the Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining in Executive Budget. ◦ Any proposal that affects tax revenues. Dec.13.2017 4 Today: A (Very) Quick Overview Highlights from Economic & Budget Outlook. ◦ Demographics: rapid aging, domestic out-migration. ◦ Economics: latest data show 2016 weaker than expected. ◦ Short- and long-term Hits: 7
MTR-2019-09.pdf large collection month is December, when the fourth CNIT estimated payment for tax year 2019 will be received. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office \| September 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff 4 70.1 24.4 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Hits: 7
MTR-2019-08.pdf and is related to a gaming license fee that was anticipated in July 2019 but received in June. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office \| August 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff official estimate published in June 2019. Cigarette 102.6 101.7 0.9 153.3 159.2 -5.9 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Hits: 7
MTR-2017-07.pdf In June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updated the Quarterly State Personal Income series for the first quarter of 2017. The data include personal income recent per capita gain is due to Pennsylvania’s contracting population, which provides a temporary boost, but may restrain future economic growth. Since 2012, Pennsylvania personal income has grown at an average annual rate of 2.9%, as net earnings (3 Hits: 7
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf Budget and Economic Update Marcellus Shale Coalition March 31, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2.5 billion \| consensus it is significant Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong  Down 441k jobs in February from prior year  Positives: housing market, sales tax revenues show strong Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf expiration of the national eviction moratorium on August 26, 2021 could have implications for rental prices in future months. Monthly Economic Update September 2021 CPI-U Year-Over-Year Change Feb Apr Jun Aug Weight All Items 1.0% 3.5% in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf The article notes that renter evictions could still surge but might be delayed due to backlogs at some courts. Monthly Economic Update October 2021 Note: Orange line reflects Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth for Rent of Primary Residence from the U Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf was 5.6%.) The Philadelphia CPI less Shelter growth rate is the highest rate for that series since 1980. Monthly Economic Update November 2021 Monthly Data Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sept-21 Oct-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.9% Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf contrast, multifamily rents fell 0.3% over the prior year according to the September 2020 Multi-Housing News report. Monthly Economic Update November 2020 Monthly Data Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Unemployment Rate 1 12.5% in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf to lag other CPI components, it is less likely that metro inflation will also decelerate in the near term. Monthly Economic Update May 2022 -0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7 Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf to continue recent strong gains due to higher labor and input (e.g., fertilizer) costs and supply chain disruptions. Monthly Economic Update March 2022 Contributions to Philadelphia CPI-U Growth -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4 Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf shift a notably higher share of their spending to gasoline and away from taxable and non-taxable discretionary purchases. Monthly Economic Update June 2022 Central Atlantic Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Prices Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. $1.00 $2.00 Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf often students and not typically primary earners in their households, which may explain the lower share of UC claims. Monthly Economic Update June 2021 14-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Male Female White Black Asian Other Job Loss (000s) -170 Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf taxpayer. Therefore, the data should not be used to infer that income migrated in or out of the state. Monthly Economic Update July 2021 Monthly Data Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.4% in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf in June, ranging from a high of 17.4% in Massachusetts to a low of 4.3% in Kentucky. Monthly Economic Update July 2020 Monthly Data Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Unemployment Rate 1 5.8% Yahoo! Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf If food and energy are excluded, then average price levels increased by 1.2% relative to the prior year. Monthly Economic Update January 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf 1984) and the impact of Federal Reserve actions to slow growth of the money supply and raise interest rates. Monthly Economic Update February 2022 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Nominal Avg Hourly Earnings 4.2% 5.1% 6.1% 4.8% Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf Report for 2021 Q2, which will provide updates on production, drilling and price trends for April to June 2021. Monthly Economic Update August 2021 Monthly Data Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.3% Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf Some analysts project a “growth recession,” where the economy does not contract, but expands only at a modest rate. Monthly Economic Update April 2022 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2019.1 2019.3 2020.1 2020.3 2021.1 2021 in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year Hits: 7
jackson ppt.pdf US and Pennsylvania Economic Outlook Tom Jackson, Senior Economist, U.S. Regional Economics January 18, 2012 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any Hits: 7
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf Matt Gardner Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy 11/14/2019 Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Introduction to ITEP The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization Hits: 7
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22, will be Hits: 7
Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 9, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21, will be Hits: 7
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 19, 2021 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus From PA Labor Force February 19, 2021 6 PA Economic Growth Rates February 19, 2021 7 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Real GDP 2.4% -4.3% Hits: 7
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2022-23 to 2027-28. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and Hits: 7
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue Hits: 7
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf in projected General Fund revenue from FY 2017-18 to 2021-22 in the IFO’s November 2016 five-year economic and budget outlook. Table 4 provides de- tail for each fiscal year. Table 2 divides the projected costs/(savings) into must make in order to fully fund the benefits earned by employees, and is based on the de- mographic and economic assumptions (e.g., inflation and the investment rate of return) that are adopted by the Systems. The ENC is expressed Hits: 7
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf examines end of pandemic programs ▪ SNAP emergency allotments (published last week) ▪ Childcare funding ▪ MA redeterminations January 31, 2023 1 US Economic Forecasts January 31, 2023 2 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP IHS Markit 5.9% Bank 330 492 42 -100 Note: IHS Markit and Wells Fargo forecasts released January 2023. PNC released December 2022. PA Economic Forecasts January 31, 2023 3 IFO IHS Markit 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP June 2022 1.1% Hits: 7
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Mid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2019-20 Preliminary Forecast FY 2020-21 January 28, 2020 PA Economic Forecast: June 2019 vs January 2020 January 28, 2020 1 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Hits: 7
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf contracted actuary. Revenue projections were computed by the IFO using data from S&P Global and the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2024-25 to 2029-30 released in November 2024. Other data sources are noted within this A stress test compares a set of simulations to certified baseline projections to illustrate the impact that changes in policy, economic or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 requires that SERS conduct three types of analyses based Hits: 6
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf contracted actuary. Revenue projections were computed by the IFO using data from S&P Global and the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 released in November 2023. Other data sources are noted within this A stress test compares a set of simulations to certified baseline projections to illustrate the impact that changes in policy, economic or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 requires that SERS conduct three types of analyses based Hits: 6
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf its contracted actuary. Revenue projections were performed by the IFO using data from IHS Markit and the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28 released in November 2022. Other data sources are noted within this A stress test compares a set of simulations to certified baseline projections to illustrate the impact that changes in policy, economic or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 requires that SERS conduct three types of analyses based Hits: 6
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school to the school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) millage rate increases as limited under Act 1. 2 Introduction Table 1: School Property Tax Forecast Actual Hits: 6
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf Demographics ▪ Working age cohort (age 20-64) continues to contract ▪ Labor force participation rates do not recover from COVID decline Economics ▪ Forecast assumes reversion to “normal” economic growth Revenues ▪ Inflation boosts stock and home values \| business profits far above historical levels Expenditures ▪ All FY 22-23 funding Hits: 6
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf hiring slows but still positive ▪ Stock market and home sales (not prices) continue to contract May 23, 2022 2 Pennsylvania Economic Forecast May 23, 2022 3 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 1.7% employment only. Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Trends May 23, 2022 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2021.1 2021.2 Hits: 6
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf temporary and peaks in late summer 2021 ▪ No major correction in stock or housing markets May 26, 2021 2 Pennsylvania Economic Forecast May 26, 2021 3 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.4% -4.4% 2021 is year-over-year gain for Q1 only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FHFA. Forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Trends May 26, 2021 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2020.2 2020 Hits: 6
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity update for FY 2017-18 was released on January 29, 2018. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year. • May Update This revenue estimate occurs during the first week Hits: 6
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf 2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts May U 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic May 26, 2020 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change IHS Markit Hits: 6
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf displays pandemic relief program income.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two informative and current measures of economic well-being at the county level. It should be noted that the metrics do not control for cost of living primary income metric used throughout this brief is personal income. This measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than Hits: 6
RB-2015-04.pdf lose employment. The Independent Fiscal Of Ðice issues this research brief to ful Ðill its statutory obligation to provide an economic analysis of all economic and revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget. Table 1 provides a comparison of minimum wage rates for Pennsylvania and Hits: 6
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf RETIREMENT SYSTEM CONSULTING SERVICES, INFORMATION, AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE Creation and Management. Under section 301(a)(16) of the Community and Economic Development Enhancement Act, the Department of Commu- nity and Economic Development has the duty to provide technical assistance and consultive services to local govern- ments. Governor's Center for Local Hits: 6
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf A stress test compares a set of simulations to certified baseline projections to illustrate the impact that changes in policy, economic or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 re- quires that PSERS conduct three types of analyses are from the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November 2023). 4 Tax revenues for FY 2029-30 and beyond are assumed to Hits: 6
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf Economy has absorbed some hits. o A few more to come. Tax Revenues. o Best real-time indicator of PA economic conditions. Upcoming Studies. o HB 76 and SB 76. o Five-Year Outlook. 24 . Sept . 2013 2 Today’s Presentation PA Economic Outlook Weakens annual growth rate or levels 2012 2013 2014 Wages and Salaries Dec 2012 Forecast 3.4% 3.2% Hits: 6
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf contracts.  Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 7/14/2017 2 Today’s Presentation PA’s long-term structural imbalance.  Origins date to 50% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note: Pennsylvania General Fund expenditures and revenues as a percentage of state GDP. Source: Economic and Budget Outlook, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2016. Demographic Trends 7/14/2017 6 Subtle, yet crucial impact.  Hard Hits: 6
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Long-Term Fiscal Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 10, 2017 partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Hits: 6
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf Mid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2018-19 Preliminary Forecast FY 2019-20 January 29, 2019 Forecast: June 2018 7 Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised for 2016 and 2017. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 29, 2019 2 2015 2016 Hits: 6
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf Fiscal Office Today’s Presentation I. The Foundation: Demographics.  Baby Boomer retirements.  Life expectancy and migration flows. II. Economic Trends for Seniors.  Seniors working more: ~25% in 2016.  More income dedicated to housing expenses.  More housing different data source. Share is percentage outflow. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. II. Economic Trends  U.S. and PA economic growth downshifts.  Similar to Japan and Europe.  Much due to normal Hits: 6
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the and Industry Overview Mission Statement Our mission is to foster a workforce system that improves quality of life and promotes economic prosperity; encourages labor-management cooperation; ensures safety, accessibility, independence, and financial sta- bility; and prepares the Commonwealth's workforce for Hits: 6
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf August Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director August 25, 2021 Latest Quarterly PA Economic Data August 25, 2021 1 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 Real GDP -35.5% 3 Hits: 6
MTR-2017-05.pdf purchases data are not available. Hence, it is not clear why PA sales tax revenues continue to lag other key economic metrics, or U.S. consumer spending generally. Consumer spending will need to accelerate for the PA economy to break from its tepid economic expansion. Sales tax revenues for May were encouraging (3.2% growth), but additional data are needed to establish a new Hits: 6
MTR-2015-08.pdf and supports thousands of jobs by matching borrowers and lenders. The industry has been evolving in recent years due to economic pressures and new financial regulations. Since 2006, an average of ten banks per year have closed or been acquired, according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Two major economic forces have contributed to consolidation in the banking industry. First, the financial crisis left smaller banks in a weaker financial Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over- Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over- Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6 Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over- Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment Hits: 6
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf Wage June 2014 2.4% 2.9% n.a. key assumption Jan 2015 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% PA Economic Forecasts 28.Jan.2015 4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Construction 6.9 3.1 0.1 7.9 7 Labor Statistics. 2014 is preliminary. 2015 estimate by IFO. Annual Job Gains and Losses (000s) 28.Jan.2015 5 PA Economic Growth Rates ‐3.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Hits: 6
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf attached) displays results from inputting the static tax cut estimate into the REMI model. The REMI model is a dynamic economic model that allows the state economy to expand or contract in response to policy or other changes. It allows relative fuel tax cuts were input separately into the REMI model to ensure that the tax cuts flowed to the relevant economic agents. • The REMI model allows population, labor force and employment (includes self-employed) to expand in response to lower taxes Hits: 6
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s five-year economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25, is available for download Hits: 6
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf provide some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to discuss recent economic and revenue trends. I would also like to make some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based 2018 Q3) while per capita consumer debt increased modestly (1.8%) for the entire year. Overall, these data suggest sound economic fundamentals and potential for further expansion into next fiscal year. However, there are some headwinds for this year and next Hits: 6
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Annual Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Report and presentation will be posted to IFO website at conclusion. ▪ Questions will be addressed at end 15, 2023 1 Main Themes Demographics ▪ Retirement wave is largely done ▪ Attention shifts to age 75+ and long-term care Economics ▪ Not a forecast, a controlled simulation \| PA economy reverts to long-term growth Revenues ▪ Corporate profits still at very high Hits: 6
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2013 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Independent Fiscal Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19, provides data Hits: 6
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 4, 2022 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins 347k jobs Dec 21 forecast -410k jobs vs trendline Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-seasonally adjusted. Pennsylvania Economic Forecast: COVID Bubble March 4, 2022 8 Pre-COVID COVID Bubble Reversion 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real Hits: 6
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 28, 2020 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins annual average growth rate over the time period. Source: Historical data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. PA Economic Growth Rates February 28, 2020 5 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real Gross Dom Product Hits: 6
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf Budget and Economic Update CompetePA March 11, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and next, then deficits  A is significant  Significant monies now available for certain spending priorities next year Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong  Down 472k jobs in December from prior year  IFO projects six years needed to return to Hits: 6
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf not review that material in the limited time for opening remarks. Rather, I would like to summarize the IFO’s economic and revenue outlook for the current and next fiscal year. A core function of the IFO is the provision of our estimate, it still relies on stronger growth in the second half of the fiscal year. Factors that likely affected economic growth and tax revenues in 2013, such as the expiration of the federal payroll tax cut and the federal budget Hits: 6
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office SERS PARTICIPATING EMPLOYERS THAT ALSO PARTICIPATE IN THE REHP Aging Agriculture Attorney General Auditor General Banking Civil Service Commission Community & Economic Development Conservation & Natural Resources Corrections Education Environmental Hearing Board Environmental Protection Executive Offices Fish and Boat Commission Game Commission General Hits: 6
2002_dbdc_report.pdf Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office guaran- teed by the employer. Predictable amount of benefit makes retirement planning easier. Benefit is variable and is impacted by: economic environment before and at retirement, the frequency of cash-out elections made by employee upon change of employers, and the Hits: 6
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the Hits: 5
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the Hits: 5
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf U6 rate includes the unemployed (U3) plus those marginally attached to the labor force, discouraged, or working part-time for economic reasons. As illustrated by the graph, the gap between the U3 and the U6 rates widened during the 2008-2009 tight labor market result in fewer discouraged workers. As requested, the U6 indicator was added to the IFO’s Monthly Economic Update. Senator Haywood requested an analysis showing the effect of a regressive tax system on Pennsylvania’s workforce. All of Hits: 5
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides a summary of the IFO’s 2019 2 school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) tax rate increases as limited under Act 1. 2 The tax base expands when new properties are Hits: 5
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” The report contains Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity update for FY 2018-19 was released on January 29, 2019. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.  May Update This revenue estimate occurs in May of Hits: 5
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf On March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was enacted as part of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. 1 The program made forgivable loans available to small businesses and other entities that met certain criteria to Small Business Administration (SBA) size standards for their industry. 2 The primary goal of the PPP was to provide economic relief to small businesses and non- profits that had been adversely impacted by COVID-19 and related mitigation efforts. Due Hits: 5
RB-2018-01.pdf and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report also incorporates recent IFO research regarding the to the school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) tax rate increases as limited under Act 1. 3 The tax base increases when new properties are Hits: 5
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf A stress test compares a set of simulations to certified baseline projections to illustrate the impact that changes in policy, economic or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 re- quires that PSERS conduct three types of analyses are from the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November 2022). 4 Tax revenues for FY 2028-29 and beyond are assumed to Hits: 5
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 1, 2019 Today’s IFO Presentation  Executive Summary \| Crucial Assumptions \| Recession Risk  Demographics: a contracting workforce  Economics: modest 2018 gains from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Hits: 5
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE The Allegheny Conference on Community Development and The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1 Hits: 5
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY Hits: 5
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf Some Background and Today’s Presentation Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) established in 2011 ▪ Provides non-partisan analysis for budget and economic issues ▪ All 50 states have a legislative fiscal office \| all are part of legislature ▪ Only IFO is separate and has requests, and all work published on website ▪ Office does not make recommendations unless required Presentation has 3 parts ▪ I. Statewide economic trends: labor market, inflation and demographics ▪ II. Industry trends and state comparisons: jobs, wages and taxes ▪ III. State budget: revenue Hits: 5
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf November Economic and Revenue Update PICA Fall Conference 2020 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 18, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data November 18, 2020 1 October 2020 Annual Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1 Hits: 5
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the other years. For that purpose, researchers would use a panel or longitudinal dataset that includes per pupil spending and various economic, demo- graphic, programmatic and outcome measures over time across all Pennsylvania school districts. During the PBB Board hearing on March Hits: 5
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of Hits: 5
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of Hits: 5
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf December Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director December 9, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data December 9, 2020 1 Annual Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1.9% 2 Hits: 5
MTR-2019-06.pdf 12) 802 717 85 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Sentiment Index 6 98.4 97.2 100.0 98.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Hits: 5
MTR-2019-05.pdf 2 803 706 97 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Sentiment Index 6 93.8 98.4 97.2 100.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Hits: 5
MTR-2019-04.pdf 58 769 674 95 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Sentiment Index 6 91.2 93.8 98.4 97.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Hits: 5
MTR-2019-03.pdf 24) 528 492 36 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Sentiment Index 6 98.3 91.2 93.8 98.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 Hits: 5
MTR-2019-02.pdf 11 405 344 61 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Sentiment Index 6 97.5 98.3 91.2 93.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 Hits: 5
MTR-2019-01.pdf 7 374 325 49 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Sentiment Index 6 98.6 97.5 98.3 91.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-12.pdf 47 356 313 42 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Sentiment Index 6 100.1 98.6 97.5 98.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-11.pdf 31 262 266 (4) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Sentiment Index 6 96.2 100.1 98.6 97.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-10.pdf 24) 104 140 (35) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Sentiment Index 6 97.9 96.2 100.1 98.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-1.pdf IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections FYTD Collections MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Building Permits 7 9.2% 10.4% 9.5% n.a. 10.7% 3.9% -3.9% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-09.pdf 34 74 86 (12) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Sentiment Index 6 98.2 97.9 96.2 100.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-08.pdf 22) 39 85 (46) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sentiment Index 6 98.0 98.2 97.9 95.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-07.pdf 23) 31 55 (23) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sentiment Index 6 98.8 98.0 98.2 97.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-06.pdf 564 2,819 (256) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Sentiment Index 6 101.4 98.8 98.0 99.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-05.pdf 468 2,597 (129) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Sentiment Index 6 99.7 101.4 98.8 98.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-04.pdf 456 2,390 65 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Building Permits 7 9.2% 8.1% 5.9% n.a. -1.2% 8.9% 6.5% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-03.pdf 256 1,936 320 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Building Permits 7 9.5% 9.2% 8.1% n.a. -3.9% -1.2% 8.9% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-02.pdf IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections FYTD Collections MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Building Permits 7 10.4% 9.5% 9.2% n.a. 3.9% -3.9% -1.2% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 Hits: 5
MTR-2017-12.pdf 9% $104 70.6% Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Building Permits 7 8.6% 9.2% 10.4% n.a. 25.7% 10.7% 3.9% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 Hits: 5
MTR-2017-11.pdf 181.1% $115 104.4% Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Building Permits 7 10.0% 8.6% 9.2% n.a. 13.5% 25.7% 10.7% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 Hits: 5
MTR-2017-01.pdf sales will be going forward. January 2017 Monthly Trends Report Pennsylvania Housing Market 1 National Association of Realtors, “U.S. Economic Outlook: December 2016,” December 2016. 2 National Association of Realtors, “Existing-Home Sales Slide in December; 2016 Sales Best Since Building Permits 7 8.9% 7.5% 8.6% n.a. 12.3% 18.8% 20.7% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 Hits: 5
MTR-2016-03.pdf 3% Dollar amounts are in millions. BEA RELEASES EARNINGS FOR 2015 On March 24 th , the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state Personal Income data for 2015 Q4. 1 Personal Income is a broad measure that includes all Building Permits 7 10.7% 11.5% 12.3% n.a. -12.4% -3.1% 10.4% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 Hits: 5
MTR-2016-02.pdf when corporations remit their final payments for tax year 2015. February 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 will be released March 25. 2 Third quarter mining profits from the Building Permits 7 10.5% 10.7% 11.5% n.a. -10.1% -12.4% -3.1% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 Hits: 5
MTR-2015-10.pdf FaɆɆiɈg EɈeɌgɓ PɌiceɍ DɌiɐe Lɉɑ IɈfɆaɎiɉɈ aɈd EɆiɇiɈaɎe COLAɍ The inflation rate, an important economic indicator, has remained relatively low over the past three years, and that outcome has implications for large federal transfers made Building Permits 7 9.3% 11.2% 9.4% n.a. -11.0% 2.3% -0.8% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 Hits: 5
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity issued only after the application is approved, the investment is complete and the De- partment of Community and Economic Development (DCED) has approved all documentation. Therefore, these provisions are not projected to reduce FY 2019-20 collections. Personal Income Tax Conformity Hits: 5
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through last year, while total mortgage debt of Pennsylvania consumers was flat (includes home equity loans). Overall, these data suggest sound economic fundamentals and potential for further expansion into next fiscal year. There are three concerns which temper this optimistic outlook. First Hits: 5
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf Economic Outlook And Property Tax Update Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials November 16, 2021 Two Parts Overview of IFO Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Will workers return? ▪ Does inflation decelerate? ▪ Do budget surpluses last? Property Tax Update ▪ No look at COVID- Hits: 5
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf created to provide objective and timely analysis to the General Assembly and Commonwealth citizens regarding a wide range of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. (See 71 Pa.C.S., Ch. 41 to read the statute creating the office.) The position entails An IFO analyst: 1) compiles, organizes, analyzes and forecasts data relating to state revenues, expenditures and the economy; 2) applies economic and statistical principles, practices and techniques to design and complete research on fiscal and economic issues; 3) prepares regular reports Hits: 5
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf Economic and Revenue Update Harrisburg Trade Association Executives May 15, 2019 U.S. and PA Economic Trends May 15, 2019 1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% Hits: 5
Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Update Matthew Knittel \| Independent Fiscal Office \| December 3, 2019 Number (000s) Change (000s) Average Ann Growth PA Demographic Forecast 2015 12,841 12,907 54 66 0.1% 0.1% Year-Over-Year Growth Rate, Change or Level PA Quarterly Economics 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.7% 2.5% Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 13, 2014 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, will be Hits: 5
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2023-24 to 2028-29. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and Hits: 5
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and Hits: 5
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf This research brief estimates the total 2019 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). For all counties, the property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which reduced school district property taxes by Hits: 5
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf soon as possible Slide 2 Mid-Year Update Economy somewhat stronger than assumed, but revenues running slightly under forecast PA Economic Forecast Update: June 2023 vs January 2024 Slide 3 Mid-Year Update 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Real GDP Jun Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Blue shading is an estimate (some data available) or projection (no data available). Latest PA Economic Trends Slide 4 Mid-Year Update 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 2023.4 Macroeconomics Real GDP 0.8% 2 Hits: 5
About IFO office Mission Statement is as follows: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections along with objective analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Treasury and an economist by the Michigan Department of Treasury. Mr. Knittel holds a M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Michigan State University and a bachelor's degree in Economics from Hope College in Holland, Michigan. Mr. Knittel has Hits: 5
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf the Payroll Tax Cut Impact the PA Economy and Tax Revenues? Director’s Note: The following text discusses the possible economic impact from a policy under consideration by the U.S. Congress. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) does not support or 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?”, NBER Working Paper No. 14753 and Parker, Souleles, Johnson and McClelland, “Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008”, NBER Working Paper No. 16684. 3 Across all consumer expenditures, the average figure is closer to Hits: 4
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf coal burning incentivized, depends on price ▪ Educational – Minimal data, not possible to reliably assess Credits do not include a formal economic impact analysis ▪ Economic activity and jobs creation not primary goal (Educational, Coal Refuse, Mixed-Use) ▪ Little economic activity incentivized (Brewers’) January 24, 2022 Hits: 4
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems tax burden studies, the analysis includes certain adjustments to state personal income as computed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 The analysis adds capital gains income, IRA withdrawals and pension distributions to state personal income and deducts employer Hits: 4
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems tax burden studies, the analysis includes certain adjustments to state personal income as computed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 The analysis adds capital gains income, IRA withdrawals and pension distributions to state personal income and deducts employer Hits: 4
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf financial aid by $279 million per annum starting in FY 25-26. March 15, 2024 Page 2 Senator Haywood requested economic modeling from the (1) impact of investments in higher education and related demographic impacts and (2) economic investments proposed in the Executive Budget. This analysis would require the use of REMI, the dynamic economic model maintained by Hits: 4
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and an outlook for future collections based on the latest available data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). For FY 2021-22, data published by PDE show that SD property tax through FY 2027-28 is based on (1) millage rates published by PDE for FY 2022-23 and (2) various economic projections for FY 2022-23 and beyond. For years without published millage rates, the IFO forecast is based on three Hits: 4
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and an outlook for future collections based on the latest available data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The latest data published by PDE show that SD property tax collections were through FY 2026-27 is based on (1) millage rates published by PDE for FY 2021-22 and (2) various economic projections to forecast revenues for FY 2022-23 and beyond. For years without published millage rates, the IFO forecast is Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity update for FY 2016-17 was released on January 25, 2017. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year. • May Update This revenue estimate occurs during the first week Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdf revenues are excluded because the non-receipt of the scheduled transfer was attributable to a court ruling, as opposed to economic or technical factors that could have been anticipated by revenue forecasters. Nearly all revenue sources came in under forecast, with the exception of escheats. Economic growth rates were considerably lower than forecast, contributing to much of the realized error. Most of the PIT overprediction (-$391 Hits: 4
RB_2024_09_Gaming.pdf 594 $2,053 $2,259 $2,431 Source: Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board Revenue Reports. 2 Includes county grants, PA Gaming Economic Development Tourism Fund and PA Race Horse Development Fund. 1 Includes fantasy contests (15% tax), which generates roughly $3.5 Relief Fund. The LSA portion is typically disbursed to local governments near the gaming facility and funds various initiatives, including economic development projects, education or other local government projects. The other assessment portion is collected on gross terminal revenue from slot Hits: 4
RB_2024_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf This research brief utilizes (1) county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) to estimate the 2022 homeowner-renter property tax burden by county. The homeowner-renter property tax burden reflects Hits: 4
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf This research brief utilizes county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) to estimate the 2021 property tax burden by county. For all counties, the property tax burden reflects the Hits: 4
Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 Date and Time: Thursday, November 13, 2014; 1:30 p.m Fourth Street or Strawberry Square) Agenda: A detailed discussion by IFO staff on the Commonwealth’s structural imbalance and the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the expenditures and revenues over the next five years. Guest Presenter: Daniel White Hits: 4
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf This research brief estimates the total 2020 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). For all counties, the property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which reduced school district property taxes by Hits: 4
Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf Recent Revenue and Economic Trends IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus - April 17, 2019 Growth Rate General Fund Tax Revenues 2017.3 Transfer 11.3% 7.9% 11.4% 3.6% 6.2% 8.2% -3.3% Growth Rate or Gains Pennsylvania Economics 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Real GDP 4.5% 0.1% Hits: 4
Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf Recent Revenue and Economic Trends Growth Rate or Change General Fund Tax Revenues (YOY) 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Non-Motor 1%20.3%3.9%20.1% Realty Transfer -8.4%7.6%11.3%7.9%11.4%3.6% 6.2% Growth Rate or Change Pennsylvania Economics 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Real GDP (QA) -0.5%3.2% 4.5% 2.5% 2.0% Hits: 4
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12, 2018 Hits: 4
PICPA_Presentation.pdf PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. Recent PA Economic Trends Recent Economic Trends June 7, 2017 11 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 PA Real GDP 0.9% Hits: 4
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the Overview \| Page 8 Outdoor Recreation Industry Impact The table to the right uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to compare Pennsylvania’s outdoor recreation industry to other states. The states shown include border and other states Hits: 4
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the Developmental screening 73% 76% 59% 75% 74% -- Domestic Violence % Intimate partner violence screening 64% 79% 76% 69% 55% -- Family and Economic Self-Sufficiency % Primary caregiver education 9 22% 36% 55% 39% 33% -- Coordination and Referrals % Completed depression referrals 37% 30% 16% Hits: 4
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of Hits: 4
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of Hits: 4
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf Economic and Revenue Update PACP Chamber Day 2021 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office June 17, 2021 Three Issues Dominate Economic and Budget Outlook What happens when federal support expires? ▪ Nearly $160 billion of federal monies injected into state ▪ What happens Hits: 4
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf 0 ECONOMIC and ACT 1 INDEX UPDATE 68 TH PASBO Annual Conference & Exhibits Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 16, 2023 Good Morning and the Recession is Always Six Months Away” March 16, 2023 2 March 6, 2023 10:45 am ET “The next economic downturn has become the most anticipated recession in recent U.S. history. It also keeps getting postponed.” WSJ Economist Survey Hits: 4
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf the Recession is Always Six Months Away” March 13, 2023 1 March 6, 2023 10:45 am ET “The next economic downturn has become the most anticipated recession in recent U.S. history. It also keeps getting postponed.” WSJ Economist Survey 07 to Jun 09) Apr 2022 28% Jun 2022 44% Jul 2022 49% Oct 2022 63% Jan 2023 61% PA Economic Data March 13, 2023 2 June 2022 Dec 2022 Latest Notes Philly CPI-U All Items 8.8% 6.4% Hits: 4
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf 2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts June U 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic June 22, 2020 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change IHS Markit Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf News PA Ranks 19 th in Real GDP Growth for 2018 Q1 On July 24, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for 2018 Q1. The data show that Penn- sylvania ranked 19 th in real GDP s that computes the impact of new U.S. and Chinese tariffs. The analysis shows the share of the county economic output or GDP that will be affected by the tariffs. For example, the analysis finds that for Clinton County, tariffs Hits: 4
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf questions. ○ Waiting on the Final Rule NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES State and Local Aid 6 ○Allowable uses: • Emergency and Economic* effects of pandemic • Premium pay to essential employees or grants to their employers • Government services affected by revenue reduction resulting FL LA SC GA AL MS UTUT Executive Legislative and Executive Has not allocated NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 12 Economic Relief Human Services Workforce Development 12 Education Housing Arts and Tourism Water Infrastructure Broadband CSFRF Major Allocation Categories Public Health Hits: 4
MTR-2017-10.pdf 8% $14 22.6% Dollar amounts are in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Building Permits 7 11.4% 10.0% 8.6% n.a. 16.6% 13.5% 25.7% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 Hits: 4
MTR-2017-09.pdf 6.9% Non-Tax 62 46 16 34.5% 3 4.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. Actual Estimate MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Building Permits 7 7.8% 11.4% 10.0% n.a. 2.3% 16.6% 13.5% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 Hits: 4
MTR-2017-08.pdf Family Foundation analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Hits: 4
MTR-2017-06.pdf Building Permits 7 13.4% 8.3% 9.3% n.a. 6.7% 0.1% 9.2% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 Electricity Sales 13 -6.1% -4.9% -4.9% -0.6% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% -0.5% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment Hits: 4
MTR-2017-04.pdf Building Permits 7 13.4% 11.8% 13.4% n.a. 16.9% 5.8% 6.7% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 Electricity Sales 13 -6.1% -4.9% -4.9% n.a. -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment Hits: 4
MTR-2017-03.pdf Building Permits 7 8.6% 13.4% 11.8% n.a. 20.7% 16.9% 5.8% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 Electricity Sales 13 -3.9% -6.2% -4.9% -4.9% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment Hits: 4
MTR-2017-02.pdf Building Permits 7 7.5% 8.6% 13.4% n.a. 18.8% 20.7% 16.9% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 Home Sales 10 5.7% 4.0% 0.8% 5.6% 11.2% 11.2% 2.8% 5.2% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment Hits: 4
MTR-2016-11.pdf Building Permits 7 5.5% 5.4% 8.9% n.a. 3.5% -2.4% 12.3% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 Electricity Sales 13 -5.3% -1.0% -3.4% n.a. -4.5% -1.7% -2.3% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment Hits: 4
MTR-2016-09.pdf Building Permits 7 8.3% 4.4% 5.5% n.a. 25.6% 8.7% 3.5% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 Electricity Sales 13 -3.8% -5.3% -1.0% -3.4% -1.2% -4.5% -1.7% -2.3% MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment Hits: 4
MTR-2016-08.pdf Building Permits 7 11.8% 8.3% 4.4% n.a. 24.8% 25.6% 8.7% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 Home Sales 10 8.3% 2.0% 5.7% 4.0% 13.4% 7.1% 11.2% 9.9% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment Hits: 4
MTR-2016-05.pdf Building Permits 7 12.3% 15.1% 14.1% n.a 10.4% 25.9% 31.2% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 Electricity Sales 13 -3.6% -3.8% -5.3% n.a. -1.6% -1.2% -4.5% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment Hits: 4
MTR-2016-04.pdf Building Permits 7 11.5% 12.3% 15.1% n.a. -3.1% 10.4% 25.9% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 Home Sales 10 8.2% 8.3% 2.0% 5.6% 11.8% 13.3% 6.9% 9.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment Hits: 4
MTR-2016-01.pdf Building Permits 7 8.3% 10.5% 10.7% n.a. -7.9% -10.1% -12.4% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 Home Sales 10 6.9% 8.2% 8.3% 2.2% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll Hits: 4
MTR-2015-11.pdf Building Permits 7 11.2% 9.4% 8.3% n.a. 2.3% -0.8% -7.9% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 Electricity Sales 13 2.4% -3.5% -4.4% n.a. -0.6% -2.3% -1.6% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll Hits: 4
MTR-2015-09.pdf Building Permits 7 10.5% 9.3% 11.2% n.a. -15.3% -11.0% 2.3% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll Hits: 4
MTR-2015-07.pdf Building Permits 7 10.0% 9.4% 10.5% n.a -18.7% -24.1% -15.3% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.3% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Department of Labor—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment Hits: 4
Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf average annual growth rate during time period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. Annual Growth Rates of PA Economic Variables October 6, 2021 2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 1.4% 1.7% -4.5% 4.5% Job Gains (000s) 69 56 -462 115 85 Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. permanent job loss PA Payroll Jobs Still Far Below Hits: 4
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf Implications  Pennsylvania undergoing dramatic transformation.  Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade.  Subtle impacts on economic growth and tax revenues.  Difficult to quantify. Must view long-term trends.  Key factor: Baby Boomers and their 2,821 535 23.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2017 and 2025 are estimates from the IFO Economic and Budget Outlook (Nov. 2017). Jan.25.2018 4 Independent Fiscal Office Multiple Factors Drive PA Aging 0 20,000 Hits: 4
IFO_PASBO_Oct_2024.pdf Jesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst III Economic and Property Tax Update October 8, 2024 Today’s Presentation Presentation runs ~25 minutes • Posted to IFO website at end Presentation has three parts • PA Economy: Where are we? • Public School Labor Market • Act 1 Index Outlook: New Data PA Economic Forecast Latest Data 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Real GDP 2024 Q1 3.8% 1.0% 2.2% 2.2% Hits: 4
Economic_Summit_Presentation_Sept_2023.pdf Economic Summit: PA General Assembly York County Delegation Matthew Knittel, Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania Economic and Revenue Trends Annual Growth, Annual Change or Average Rate Economics (Calendar Year) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1 Real Hits: 4
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf Economic and Revenue Update Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office August 19, 2020 Four Things to Note Wage and Salary data are  Car sales tax breaks record \| projected $2 billion shift largely captured August 19, 2020 1 Latest Real-Time PA Economic Data August 19, 2020 2 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 Hits: 4
Demographics_Outlook_2024.pdf of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2024-25 to 2029-30. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and Hits: 4
Announcement_2021.pdf annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. The presentation will examine various issues that impact the economic and budget outlook: (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 The Independent Hits: 4
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf Office (IFO) will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2:00 p.m. Location: 14 th Floor Conference Center an advance estimate for FY 2016-17. The office also will release an updated report on Pennsylvania’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, originally released on December 9 th , details the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will Hits: 4
2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdf them at end If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible Slide 2 Initial Revenue Estimate Economic and Revenue performance as expected, unusual revenue sources provide gains PA Economic Forecast Slide 3 Initial Revenue Estimate Latest Data 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Real GDP 2023 Q4 3.8% 1 Hits: 4
2019-Pub-2.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office presents Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Date and Time Economic and Budget Outlook Location Agenda Guest Presenters Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 1:30 pm Harrisburg University of Science and annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Katherine Loughead, Tax Foundation: Modernizing Pennsylvania's Tax Code as a Strategy Hits: 4
2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 Date and Time: Wednesday, December 9, 2015; 2:00 p.m Floor Auditorium Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street, Harrisburg Agenda: A detailed discussion by IFO staff on the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures and revenues over the next five fiscal years. Guest Hits: 4
2004_srpvffinal.pdf Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office 23 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,433 Source: Pennsylvania Local Fact Sheet, Governor’s Center for Local Government Services, Department of Community and Economic Development, August 2002. Background Discussion (Cont'd) 2 National Volunteer Fire Council Fact Sheet, National Volunteer Fire Council, 2002. 3 Hits: 4
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf possible to assess reliably ▪ All Others – Minimal data, not yet possible to assess reliably Credits do not include a formal economic impact analysis ▪ Most credits not enacted until 2016 and impacted by COVID ▪ Programs still in early stages of implementation, minimal expended (through FY 20-21) ▪ 1 project has been completed (completion report filed) January 10, 2023 8 #4 Waterfront Development Economic impact ▪ Economic benefits reported in narrative format \| no consistent metrics ▪ For FY 21-22, $1.1m in planned contributions denied Hits: 3
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf over past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis.  FPTC: large ($65 million) and good data are available.  JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less but not mid-size and large.  Across all projects, offsets ~1% of total costs.  Large positive spillover effects: economic, social, environmental. Recommendations for HPTC:  Consider increasing credit but use scoring system to award credits to improve targeting. Lottery Hits: 3
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx relevant studies over past decade. ▪ Government, academic and industry. ▪ Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis. ▪ FPTC : large ($65 million) and good data are available. ▪ JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less clear. ▪ HPTC small projects but not mid-size and large. ▪ Across all projects, offsets ~1% of total costs. ▪ Large positive spillover effects: economic, social, environmental. Recommendations for HPTC: ▪ Consider increasing credit but use scoring system to award credits to improve targeting. Lottery system Hits: 3
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf over past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis.  FPTC: large ($65 million) and good data are available.  JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less but not mid-size and large.  Across all projects, offsets ~1% of total costs.  Large positive spillover effects: economic, social, environmental. Recommendations for HPTC:  Consider increasing credit but use scoring system to award credits to improve targeting. Lottery Hits: 3
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf 1 Methodology and Data Sources This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, CCH AnswerConnect and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and made for two high-tourism states: Hawaii and Nevada. Based on state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, these states are clearly outliers because (1) the “Food Service and Accommodations” sector comprises a much larger share of Hits: 3
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf from college and entering the workforce or leaving the workforce and entering retirement. Those events do not reflect how overall economic growth affects various households. By focusing on the two age cohorts, the analysis (1) largely excludes those events and (2 the following categories as outlined in the program guidelines:  Value-Added Processing - transforming milk into a product of higher economic value in the marketplace for food or non-food use.  Marketing and Promotion - increasing the domestic or international awareness Hits: 3
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf Stabilization Fund and (2) school districts.  Detail by revenue source.  Background on Property Tax forecast.  Some general economic analysis. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 2 The Proposal  Eliminates local distributions to school districts? 2. How do distributions compare to a “current law” property tax baseline for schools? 3. Potential economic impacts. 1. Business and non-business. 2. Homeowners and renters. 3. Home prices and rent payments. 4. Business competitiveness. 1 Hits: 3
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2024.pdf Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and an outlook for current and future collections based on the latest published data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). A summary of recent trends in SD funding sources is also included on through FY 2025-26 is based on (1) millage rates published by PDE for FY 2023-24 and (2) various economic projections for FY 2023-24 and beyond. For years without published millage rates, the forecast is based on three factors Hits: 3
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” The report contains Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf FY 2014-15 revenues were inflated by various non-recurring events,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2015-16 anticipate continued economic growth, but the absence of the one-time revenues received in the prior year reduces the overall rate of growth for the General Fund.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf 1,442 million. “Revenues for FY 2013-14 unexpectedly fell below prior-year levels, an anomaly largely driven by temporary economic and technical factors,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2014-15 anticipate a return to growth due to improvements in the labor market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods Hits: 3
RB_2024_09_County_Income_Patterns.pdf across the state. The analysis uses two data sources for the county-level income metric: the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The base for county income is BEA personal income for calendar years Data Note: AAGR is average annual growth rate from 2019 to 2022. Source: Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Calculations and adjustments by IFO. Independent Fiscal Office Page 6 2019 2022 AAGR Rank 2019 2022 AAGR Rank 2019 Hits: 3
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf reference map of county names.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two informative and current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although two metrics control for population, it should be noted that they do not and retirement income (e.g., Social Security and pension contributions). The measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than state Hits: 3
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf reference map of county names.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two informative and current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although the metrics control for population, it should be noted that they do not and retirement income (e.g., Social Security and pension contributions). The measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than state Hits: 3
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf county names.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two of the best and most current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although the metrics control for population, it should be noted that they do not and retirement income (e.g., Social Security and pension contributions). The measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than state Hits: 3
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf and Major Releases IFO starts in 2011. Primary duty to provide General Fund revenue estimates ▪ Every January, May and June ▪ Economic trends and forecasts Each November: Five-Year Outlook ▪ General Fund revenues, expenditures, economics and demographics ▪ Long-term structural surplus or deficit for the state Other Duties and Releases ▪ Monthly releases: revenue collections, economic Hits: 3
Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our role today is 3,000 $4,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $ Millions Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014. General Fund Appropriations SERS & PSERS Total Hits: 3
Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our role tonight is 3,000 $4,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $ Millions Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014‐15 to 2019‐20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014. General Fund Appropriations SERS & PSERS Total Hits: 3
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf Job Gains (000s) 64.8 40.3 14.7 45.8 54.9 55.6 22.Jun.2015 2 PA Economic Forecasts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. 2014 GDP is preliminary. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rank Hits: 3
platt ppt.pdf www.bea.gov Recent Trends in Personal Income, Earnings and Wages in Pennsylvania Joel D. Platt Associate Director for Regional Economics Revenue Forecasting Conference Independent Fiscal Office for Pennsylvania January 18, 2012 www.bea.gov BEA’s Mission To promote a better understanding of the U.S. economy by providing the most timely, relevant and accurate economic accounts data in an objective and cost- effective manner 2 www.bea.gov BEA BEA is the Nation’s economic Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf increase attractiveness of site ▪ PA only state to base tax credit on job creation only September 28, 2021 3 KSDZ Economic Impact Challenges Program currently has a small number of participants ▪ No research exists that links a job creation tax credit to brownfield investment ▪ More data needed to facilitate a formal economic analysis ▪ Alternative: “break even” analysis \| standard approach used by many states ▪ What share of jobs need to be incentivized by Hits: 3
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the to prevent and reduce drug, alcohol and gambling addiction and abuse; and to promote recovery, thereby reducing the human and economic impact of the disease. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by DDAP are classified into five general activities Hits: 3
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the miscellaneous expense transfer expenditures. Agricultural Marketing and Development \| Page 34 Notes on Measures ▪ As published in the Executive Budget, the economic impact of the Farm Show is calculated by Visit Hershey Harrisburg (VHH). VHH is Dauphin County’s Destination Marketing Organization Hits: 3
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of Hits: 3
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of Hits: 3
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE sponsored by the PA Economy League partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Hits: 3
NewsStand_2019_September.pdf health issues and incarceration as potential fac- tors. Pennsylvania Claims Title of Most Diverse State Economy Bloomberg recently released an Economic Diversity Index for the nation, based on gross domestic product (GDP) by industry and government. A diverse economy helps insulate states from large economic swings when one industry has an economic downturn. Pennsylvania ranked first in the index, with Texas and Colorado ranked second Hits: 3
NewsStand_2019_May.pdf Pennsylvania News Real State GDP Growth is 2.1% for CY 2018 On May 1, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q4. The preliminary data for calendar year 2018 show that the state economy 1% (Q3) and 4.2% (Q4). Similar to patterns for the U.S., the state data show a deceleration of economic growth after the second quarter. Data for 2019 Q1 will be released at the end of July. Consumer Debt Increases Hits: 3
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf News Philadelphia 2018: The State of the City The PEW Charitable Trusts released a report on Philadelphia that shows bullish economic trends since the start of the year. The city accounts for roughly 12% of the total Pennsylvania population. Net job discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for 2017 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released 4 th quarter state GDP data. For the entire year, the Pennsylvania economy expanded at a real rate Hits: 3
MRU-2020-04.pdf shortfall is almost entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $385 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $140 million in processing delays or delayed due dates (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year) and the entire shortfall attributable to the virus. The IFO estimates that roughly $105 million is permanently lost due to reduced economic activity ($135 million FYTD), $55 million is tied to processing delays that will reverse this fiscal year and $1.32 Hits: 3
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Revenue_Analyst.pdf Analyst Office Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections along with impartial and objective analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity the following skills and characteristics: ➢ Possession of a bachelor’s degree or higher with a major course of study in economics, finance, mathematics, statistics or related field that requires extensive quantitative analysis. Relevant work experience may substitute for a degree in Hits: 3
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Fiscal_Analyst.pdf Office: Fiscal Analyst Office Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections along with objective analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity the following skills and characteristics: ➢ Possession of a bachelor’s degree or higher with a major course of study in economics, finance, mathematics, statistics or related field that requires extensive quantitative analysis. Relevant work experience may substitute for a degree in Hits: 3
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf oppose combined reporting note that:  the filing method will subject profits to state tax that have little or no economic connection to the state;  it will make the state less attractive to firms and will constrain economic growth; and  it will introduce significant administrative complexity. It is well known that determination of the unitary group is Hits: 3
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28 Pennsylvania Date and Time RSVP Here Agenda Guest Presenter Tuesday annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Phillip Swagel, Director CBO Federal Budget and Economic Update Following his presentation Hits: 3
Links IFO - Links IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Links U.S. Economic Indicators • Bureau of Economic Analysis • Bureau of Labor Statistics • Census Bureau • Weekly Jobless Claims • Employment Situation • Advance Retail Sales • Existing Home Sales • GDP and Hits: 3
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf Katharine Witgert Program Manager National Academy for State Health Policy Annual Presentation The Economic and Budget Outlook Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2012 Health Care Reform: What it Means for States a state? – How many individuals might enroll? – Who are the newly eligible? – What are the administrative costs? – What are the economic benefits & savings? 11 For analysis and links to tools, see: Medicaid Expansion: Sizing up Coverage in States http://www.statereforum Hits: 2
Testimony-02-2020.pdf PA Economic Update Testimony for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees Matthew Knittel \| Independent Fiscal Office \| February 18, 2020 Annual Growth Rate data for 2019 are preliminary and will be revised. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve Board of New York. Forecasts by IFO. Author: Matthew Knittel Company: Microsoft CreationDate Hits: 2
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity are from FYE 2010. Those years reflect the most 1 The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes state personal income data. See http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn Hits: 2
SR2017-03.pdf tax burden studies, the analysis includes certain adjustments to state personal income as computed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 The analysis adds capital gains income, IRA withdrawals and pension distributions to state personal income. 2 The analysis by the IRS) and Tables SA4 and SA40 from the National Income and Product Accounts. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes state personal income data. 2 Capital gains, IRA withdrawals and pension data are from the “SOI Tax Stats Hits: 2
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf Fiscal Implications of a York County School District Consolidation  Independent nonpartisan agency. • Began operations in September 2011. • Analyze fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  Office does not make policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014 Hits: 2
SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Figure 4.2 Annual Growth Rates for Figure 4.2 Fiscal Personal Sales School U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Creator: Matthew Knittel LastModifiedBy: MJR Created: 2013-10-21T14:35:35Z Modified: 2013-10- Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf for FY16-17. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $31.0 billion for FY15-16 represents an increase of $406 million million. Relative to the FY15-16 estimate certified by the governor in December, this estimate is $127 million higher. The economic forecast was revised to reflect recent trends in personal income tax withholding. Collections for this revenue source underperformed through the Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf Wages are the largest component of the state economy, and the recent weakness in collections motivated a revision to the economic outlook for 2016 and 2017.” A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf for FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $30.54 billion for FY14-15 represents an increase of $1,932 FY15-16 estimate is unchanged. The two- year total is $12 million lower than the IFO’s earlier projections. The economic forecast is largely unchanged, and the changes to the estimate result from analysis of recent revenue collections and technical factors Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf economy is expected to continue expanding in FY 2015-16,” Knittel said. “However, some of the revenue growth from improved economic activity simply will offset one- time, or non-recurring, revenues received in the current year.” Relative to the Executive Budget the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf for FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $28.5 billion for FY13-14 represents a decrease of $103 million The two-year total is $95 million less than the earlier projections. The reductions are largely the result of updated economic assumptions, a lower estimate for small games of chance tax revenues and new information on the timing of potential casino Hits: 2
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf June 2012. More recent research finds that common and significant income tax breaks for the elderly fail to promote state economic growth. See Brewer, Ben and Karen Smith Conway and Jonathan Rork. “Do Income Tax Breaks for the Elderly Affect Economic Growth?” Working Paper (September 2017). 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Actual Actual Enacted Department of Aging: State 1 ………………………………………………………………………………. $2 Hits: 2
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). 2 The estimates apply to senior homeowners only, and exclude any property tax that may be effectively remitted for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). September 19, 2019 Page 2  Hits: 2
RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf with the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions and extensive federal stimulus programs. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show that U.S. corporate non-financial domestic profits increased by 50% from CY 2019 to CY 2022. Therefore million, then the increase is 84%. While recent national corporate profits data are published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, state level corporate profits data are not, so it is unclear how the TY 2019 data have been impacted Hits: 2
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf levels of international migration. When managed in a controlled and stable manner, research finds that international migration has net positive economic impacts for state and national economies. • Enactment of policies that encourage labor force participation, or alternatively, policies that do not result in a marginal income tax rate that could approach 100% for certain workers (i.e., a vertical benefits cliff). Economic research finds that very high marginal tax rates clearly discourage labor force participation. CreationDate: 2022-10-25 17:07:05 Hits: 2
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf voluntarily separated in search of better pay/benefits or working conditions. 5 These data represent conditions in April. Real-time economic data suggest slower economic growth so that excess demand for workers could be somewhat lower. Where Did the Workers Go? Independent Fiscal Office \| Research Hits: 2
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf See “US workers are getting larger raises, but not enough to keep up with higher inflation,” Peterson Institute for International Economics (July 30, 2021) at https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us- workers-are-getting-large-raises-not-enough-keep-higher. 2 Payroll workers only. Excludes self-employed. See Hits: 2
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf IFO. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 For FY 2020-21, the state used funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act to fund employer contributions that typically rely on General Fund monies. The shift of funding source reduced base for that fiscal year in Table 2. The IFO will update these projections as part of its Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook in mid-November. Table 3 uses data compiled by the Pew Charitable Trusts for its annual 50- Hits: 2
RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdf The COVID-19 pandemic, mitigation efforts and federal response produced two economic outcomes that directly impacted the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers. Inflation surged to a four-decade high while a labor decelerated, but ECI growth continued to accelerate. When analyzing inflation and wage trends, several technical issues should be noted: • If economic data are impacted by unusual events, it is important to select a start or base year that represents a “normal Hits: 2
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf million of one-time escheats gains and a $227 million transfer. Sources: US Census Bureau (tax revenues), US Bureau of Economic Analysis (personal income). Data for FY 2013-14 and FY 2014-15. Ratio: State and Local Taxes / State Personal Income baseline” school district property taxes grow?  How will the new replacement revenues grow?  How will both respond to economic conditions? 1/19/2017 8 Long-Term Revenue Growth Trends 1/19/2017 9 2004-05 = 1.0 1.0 Hits: 2
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf February 2018). All source data for computations are from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 Graph 1: Cumulative Revenue and Economic Growth Since FY 2004-05 2004-05 = 1.0 PIT +60% SUT +42% CPI-U +31% GDP +62% SD Prop Hits: 2
Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf 2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our role today is 6/30 SERS PSERS Projected 4/11/2016 14 Pension Projections General Fund ‐ Annual and Cumulative Increases Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2015‐16 to 2020‐21, Independent Fiscal Office, January 2016. $527 $283 $161 $170 $77 $527 Hits: 2
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. The Independent Fiscal 7 47.6 48.6 52.4 50.6 Average annual growth rates. Values are forecasts for entire year. Pennsylvania Economic Outlook 8.Jun.2016 10 Long‐Term Budget Trends Changing Demographics Impact Longer‐Term Outlook Working Age Population Projected to Hits: 2
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf February 27, 2018 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office CompetePA Retreat Economy, Revenues and Budget Pennsylvania economic growth rates or change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 2.3% system  Many are subjective and reflect tax policy goals  A tax-friendly business climate need not translate to economic growth  Some rankings are incomplete and certain taxes may be omitted: severance tax, gaming taxes Tax Foundation: state business Hits: 2
PEW_Presentation(Video).pptx 16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per year • Evaluation is a proven way to improve the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design and administration • An estimate of the incentive’s economic and fiscal impact • Policy recommendations pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Indiana pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Alabama pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Hits: 2
PEW_Presentation(Video).ppsx 16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per year • Evaluation is a proven way to improve the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design and administration • An estimate of the incentive’s economic and fiscal impact • Policy recommendations pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Indiana pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Alabama pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Hits: 2
perez ppt.pdf States face ongoing budget challenges. – State tax collections remain below pre-recession levels – Officials are concerned about the strength of economic growth – Questions remain about the impact of federal deficit reduction on state budgets – The total state budget gap: $527.7 fiscal outlook is improving  A number of significant uncertainties loom: – Demands on state budgets – The strength and sustainability of economic recovery – The impact of federal actions on state budgets For More Information www.ncsl.org/fiscal arturo.perez@ncsl.org Hits: 2
PBB_TaxCredits_Schedule_2022_Update.pdf Board of Probation and Parole PA Commission on Crime & Delinquency Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission Banking and Securities General Services 2 Economic & Community Development Human Services – Part 1 Health Environmental Protection PA Emergency Management Agency State 3 PennDOT Human Services – Part 2 Keystone Innovation Zones Mobile Telecom and Broadband Organ and Bone Marrow 3 Neighborhood Assistance Resource Enhancement and Protection (REAP) Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Video Game Production Keystone Special Development Zones 4 Educational Tax Credits Coal Refuse and Reclamation Mixed-Use Development Hits: 2
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the distributions from the Lottery Fund, including revenue from slots used for Property Tax and Rent Rebates ($ millions). Source: Pennsylvania Lottery Economic Benefit Impact Report FY 20-21. Net Lottery Sales 1 Net Lottery Sales 1 Lottery Funded Benefits 2 Lottery Funded Hits: 2
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the educational programs, including exhibits, tours and events, (2) preserve and interpret historic artifacts and documents and (3) contribute to the economic development of local and regional communities by promoting heritage tourism. In a typical year, the sites operated by BHSM host Hits: 2
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of Hits: 2
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of Hits: 2
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of Hits: 2
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf employed. Computations are by IFO and differ slightly from PA Dept. of Labor and Industry. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average Wage Growth 2017-2019 3.1% Average Wage Growth 2018-2020 on most recent withholding data IFO does not make national forecasts, relies on IHS Markit for ECI  US macro economics provider for all state executive agencies  The “all private workers” forecast is used for ECI  Usually a high Hits: 2
Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the Hits: 2
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the Hits: 2
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the Hits: 2
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the Hits: 2
novak ppt.pdf F EDERAL R ESERVE B ANK OF P HILADELPHIA Pennsylvania Economic Outlook Independent Fiscal Office January 18, 2012 Jason Novak Research and Policy Support Manager Half Empty or Half Full? • Increased economic activity equals tax revenue increases if and only if the tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf MSAs are relatively less sensitive to the business cycle than the national average. The Pennsylvania MSA least responsive to an economic down- turn is State College due to its high share of employment in the education sector. BEA Releases GDP by County For the first time, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released county-level estimates of GDP from 2001 to 2018. In 2018, Philadelphia had the largest real GDP ($110 Hits: 2
Newsstand_2019_April.pdf and 56,700 (2018 Q4). Personal Income Growth Strong in 2018 Q4 On March 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data for 2018 Q4. For calendar year 2018, the data show that Pennsylvania personal are not available. Corporate Non-Financial Profits Up 10.4% for 2018 On March 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released preliminary profits data for 2018 Q4. For cal- endar year 2018, domestic profits of non-financial corporations Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf in 2000, and this trend is contributing to the “resurgence of the U.S. chemi- cal manufacturing sector” and general economic development. (Full Article) -April 2018 - Congressional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028 The CBO updated its deficit projections from the previous release in June 2017 to show substantial Hits: 2
MRU-2020-3.pdf that the virus contributed roughly $200 million to the monthly shortfall: (1) $50 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $90 million in processing delays (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year) and (3) $60 million that of the shortfall attributable to the virus. The IFO estimates that roughly $30 million is permanently lost due to reduced economic activity (withholding and quarterly payments), $30 million is tied to processing delays that will reverse this fiscal year and $60 Hits: 2
MRU-2020-09.pdf Due to the passage of a partial-year budget, the IFO will delay the release of its regular five-year economic and budget outlook in mid-November. In its place, the office will release an updated economic and revenue forecast for FY 2020-21 at the end of October. Monthly Revenue Update September 2020 FY 2020-21 Hits: 2
MRU-2020-06.pdf billion (-9.1 percent) below estimate. The shortfall roughly consists of: (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates collections were below estimate by $26.2 million and $16.8 million, respectively. The RTT shortfall is attributed to reduced economic activity and the INH shortfall is the result of delayed payment due dates related to the closure of county courthouses Hits: 2
MRU-2020-05.pdf virus. The shortfall is entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $430 million in lost revenue from reduced economic activity, (2) $15 million in processing delays or delayed due dates (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year) and tax collections were below estimate (-$19.1 million and -$34.2 million, respectively). The RTT shortfall is related to reduced economic activity and the INH shortfall is attributed to the closure of county courthouses. The INH shortfall is expected to be Hits: 2
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf year 2031. This provision is projected to reduce FY 2022-23 CNIT revenues by $110.3 million. Market Sourcing and Economic Nexus (Act 53) The act provides consistency between the sourcing of tangible and intangible property for CNIT and rein- forces reduce General Fund revenues by $1.0 million: CNIT ($0.5 million) and bank shares tax ($0.5 million). Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit (Act 53) The act increases the annual cap on the tax credit from $8 million to Hits: 2
mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf fiscal year.” Knittel said. “For next year, revenues are projected to follow a low-growth pattern. Revenue increases from modest economic growth largely are offset by the absence of one- time measures used to boost collections in FY 2016-17.” The is $716 million lower than the official estimate certified by the governor in July. A presentation discussing the IFO’s economic forecast and the revisions to the revenue estimate is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717- Hits: 2
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf collections.” Knittel cautioned that reductions in the estimates for other revenue sources offset some of the gains from the improved economic outlook. The table below contains an overview of the revisions to the IFO’s revenue estimate. Revisions to the IFO franchise taxes. ------ Subtotal – Decreases -270 ==== Net Revision 250 Revised estimate is $30.207 billion. The IFO’s presentation discussing the economic forecast and the revisions to the revenue estimate is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717- Hits: 2
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdf a synopsis of any analysis included in the transmission to the General Assembly. The IFO may provide additional fiscal or economic analysis on an ad hoc basis, if the legislation has expanded impacts that warrant further consideration or explanation outside of a manner that facilitates the analysis of proposed legislation and its intent. The IFO may also provide additional financial or economic analysis based on the output from requested simulations. Analysis Request Policies Per statute, requests for actuarial notes can only be Hits: 2
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Deputy_Director.pdf Director Office Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections along with impartial and objective analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity director in the event of the director’s absence. The ideal candidate: • Has a bachelor’s or advanced degree in economics, public finance, management or other area that emphasizes quantitative analysis • Has professional experience related to public sector budget processes or Hits: 2
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf to criminal justice cost savings. Additionally, recreational marijuana represents a new retail industry, which can lead to job creation and economic growth. I hope you find the information useful. Per office policy, we will plan to post this response to our marijuana/health-effects.html Hansen, Benjamin, Keaton Miller and Caroline Weber. “Early Evidence on Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Traffic Fatalities.” Economic Inquiry 58, no. 2 (2018): 547-568. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12751 Impacts of Marijuana Legalization in Colorado Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf percentage points lower than the employer contribution rate used to estimate the state share of PSERS employer contributions in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, which was issued by the Independent Fiscal Office on November 16 the computation remain unchanged. The following table displays an update to Table 5.6, which was originally published in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23 on November 16, 2017 (see page 49). The table shows total Hits: 2
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf Stambaugh requested more detail on Department of Humans Services (DHS) program expenditures listed on slides 14 and 15 in the Economic and Budget Outlook presentation. Page 33 of the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28 report released on November 15, 2022 provides additional detail on projected Hits: 2
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be Hits: 2
2002_drop_report.pdf Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office the 5 plan, the best available estimate of future occurrences in the case of each 6 assumption. With respect to economic actuarial assumptions, the assumptions 7 shall either be within the range specified in rules and regulations issued by the 8 Hits: 2
Economic Calendar IFO - Economic Calendar IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Economic Calendar IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Dec 03) PA natural gas production for 2024Q3 decreased by 1.7% from the prior year, while new wells drilled was down 38.2%. New wells for CY 2024 are on pace to reach the lowest level since CY 2007. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/mOEhv9EsGq • (Dec 02) The Commonwealth collected $2.93 billion in General Fund revenues for November, $130 million (-4.2%) less than November 2023. FY 24-25 revenues total $16.40 billion and are $119 million (+0.7%) above IFO projections. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/r31D84ngFN • (Nov 27) The IFO published a summary of the 2024 SERS stress test report and projects that General Fund employer pension contributions will total $22.0 billion over the next 20 years if baseline assumptions hold. See the IFO Report at ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/wGVDZxD5HX Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0 msapplication-TileColor: #ffffff msapplication-config: /Resources/images Hits: 2
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO submits this Hits: 1
SR2017-06.pdf assessed value share is weighted by 2015 county real estate tax collections as reported by the Department of Community and Economic Development. 2 Totals are not supplied because they would not be meaningful due to the differences in assessed values between Hits: 1
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf Fire Safety 50 Auditor General Fire Insurance 68,521 Municipal Pension 301,730 Banking and Securities Banking 28,346 Community & Economic Development Ben Franklin Technology Development 25,034 Local Government Capital Project Loan 1,100 Machinery and Equipment Loan 48,600 Hits: 1
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf The Penn Wharton Budget Model Kent Smetters \ November, 15 2018 Overview Penn Wharton Budget Model 2 1) Use cutting-edge economic modeling, data science and cloud computing to provide policymakers and support staff with a transparent platform that projects the impact Hits: 1
Senate_Maj_Policy_Comm_April_13_2021.pdf Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Pennsylvania Leisure and Hospitality Sector Senate Majority Policy Committee April 13, 2021 Year-Over-Year Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf the proposed revenue modifications.) Outyear revenue collections are estimated by applying the growth rates published in the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 (published November 2021). Refund reserves are from the Executive Budget Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf DOR prior to publication of its projections, but a comparison of forecasts suggests that the IFO forecast reflects stronger current economic activity (i.e., sales and use tax and withholding) as well as activity attributable to tax year 2020 (i.e Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). Rebate Number Amount 1 Base ($175 Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). Rebate ($1,500 Supplemental) Number Amount Hits: 1
RB_2024_11_Treasury.pdf estimates for Treasury collections for FY 2024-25 and FY 2025-26 (from the IFO’s November 2024 Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook). Based on the current General Fund balance and latest rates, the IFO projects that Treasury collections will Hits: 1
RB_2024_09_Who_Pays_Gaming_Taxes.pdf capital gains), the true average will be higher. 3 See https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/04/02/the-economics-of-american-lotteries. These results confirm findings by Kearney (2002) that found lower income households spent 0.46% of their Hits: 1
RB_2024_07_CNIT.pdf reflect any dynamic response that could partially offset the negative revenue impact. Dynamic effects refer to the increase in private economic activity that should occur in response to lower tax burdens. A positive revenue offset should occur because (1) the lower Hits: 1
RB_2024_06_Sources_PA_Income.pdf and state tax return data (with adjustments for misreporting on tax returns), data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and data published by various federal agencies (e.g., Social Security Administration, HUD). Data Sources for Cash Income Hits: 1
RB_2024_06_Revenues_Spending.pdf of San Francisco found that consumers have exhausted any savings built up during the pandemic. 1 Most analysts now expect economic and revenue growth rates to revert to historical averages. Spending growth will be determined by discretionary spending decisions (e.g Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf 19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP). In general, stimulus funds Hits: 1
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf on QCEW data through 2023 Q2, see the Philadelphia Federal Reserve analysis: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions. Negative Revision to PA Job Gains Expected Independent Fiscal Office \| Research Brief \| February 2024 0 50 Hits: 1
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdf 96 1.25 Pennsylvania 7.25 9.57 10.22 2.32 2.97 Source: Minimum wage is from the Economic Policy Institute, Minimum Wage Tracker (as of January 1, 2022). Wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Hits: 1
RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdf many employees retained a hybrid or full-time work-from-home schedule. A working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that in 2022 (nationally), 20% of full workdays will be supplied from home, compared to 5% before the Hits: 1
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf increase in coal generation in response to high natural gas prices and (2) artificially low 2020 emissions due to reduced economic activity in response to COVID-19. That trend was unique to 2021, and emissions in most states reverted to a Hits: 1
RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdf Tax Year 2019 Tax Year 2020 AGI Class (000s) Source: IRS, Statistics of Income Division and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Numbers in thousands, dollars in millions (except average). 2020 includes $1.86 billion in LWA payments. Unemployment Compensation Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf 2021 Q3 data for the U.S. employer cost index (ECI, wage compensation only) and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published September data for total wages paid to U.S. workers. 1 The ECI data show the largest Hits: 1
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf October 2021, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release demographic projections that will be incorporated into its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results from those projections that estimate the impact of COVID-19 on Hits: 1
RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdf sheet for FY 2023-24, the ending balance is expected to decline $1.4 billion by June 2024, and most economic forecasts project that interest rates will begin to fall gradually in mid-to-late 2024. If both projections hold, then Hits: 1
QRE_FY14-15.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Hits: 1
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx 40 41 39 38 37 37 35 36 37 -2.5% -2.0% -0.5% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/) Demographics by State 1990-2012 Hits: 1
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf 5% 5.0% 5.5% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note: Percentages refer to the share of state GDP. Source: Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, IFO (November 2017). March 8, 2018 Pension Update Act 5 Impacts Hits: 1
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf income transfer to low-wage workers.  Most from higher prices. Smaller amount from reduced profits. Three factors drive higher economic output.  Low-wage earners more likely to spend all income.  Income transfer is funneled to PA resident labor Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf the PA labor force (3)  FY 2019-20: a difficult budget year ahead (5) All material from IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2018). November 19, 2018 2 PA Population Snapshots November 19, 2018 3 Number (000s) Change (000s Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf agency’s control (e.g., activities and outputs) versus those that are outside an agency’s control (e.g., social-economic issues, weather) that impact high-level outcomes. 14 October 15, 2018 Implications for FY 2019-20  PBB plan limitations Hits: 1
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the Hits: 1
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the Hits: 1
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the Hits: 1
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the Hits: 1
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires the Hits: 1
Newsstand_February_2020.pdf New Jersey and New York) paid more in taxes to the federal government than received in expenditures. Spotted Lanternfly Causes Economic Damage Across the State A study by the College of Agricultural Sciences at Penn State University finds that the invasive Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_October.pdf 9% in 2018, accelerating from a 3.6% increase in 2017. The data, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 3, reported national personal consumption expenditure growth of 5.1% in 2018, with the strongest growth in Hits: 1
Newsstand_2019_March.pdf PA Real Gross Domestic Product Expanded by 2.8% in 2018 Q3 On February 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q3. The data show that Pennsylvania real GDP expanded at a 2.8% Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_June.pdf includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The article explores the epi- demic’s impact on labor force participation rates and economic costs. It finds that the total per capita cost of the opioid epidemic for Pennsylvanians was $1,945 in 2015 Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_July.pdf growth if energy is excluded. Personal Income Growth Moderates in 2019 Q1 On June 25, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state personal income data for 2019 Q1. Compared to the prior year, data show that Pennsylvania personal income Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_October.pdf Corporation Profits Grew by 5.5% in First Half of CY 2018 On September 27, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released updated figures for non-financial (excludes banks) domestic profits of U.S. corporations. The preliminary data show that Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_November.pdf was 1.8%. PA Real Gross Domestic Product Surges in 2018 Q2 On November 15, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary state real Gross Domestic Product data for 2018 Q2. On a quarterly annualized basis, the Pennsylvania economy Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_June.pdf and salaries. U.S. Corporate Profits Increase 4.3% in 2018 Q1 On May 30, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary data for U.S. corporate profits for the first quarter of 2018. (See Table 1.12 from Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_December.pdf recent months. U.S. Corporate Profits Record Strong Growth in 2018 Q3 On November 28, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary data for third quarter U.S. corporate profits. (Table 6.16d in the link.) On a year- Hits: 1
MRU-2020-07.pdf likely bolstered by pent-up demand from COVID-19 business closures earlier this year and the continued effect of federal economic impact payments and enhanced unemployment compensation benefits. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for July were $2.31 billion, an increase Hits: 1
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Hits: 1
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates are based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on January 21, 2021, which includes adjustments to reflect the Hits: 1
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Hits: 1
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.8 billion Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.3 billion Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf peer states listed, it is unclear whether that outcome is due to that policy, the composition of its workforce, overall economic performance or a combination of factors. However, it is clear that the states listed are generally underperforming the U.S Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_May_2023.pdf for FY 2022-23 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. The presentation will cover recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_2024.pdf for FY 2023-24 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2024-25. The presentation will cover recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf proposed statutory changes identified in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate, which includes a discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2022.pdf 2021-22 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. The presentation will review and discuss recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf 1 Testimony on RGGI Modeling Assumptions Joint Hearing of the Senate Environmental Resources and Energy Committee and Community, Economic and Recreational Development Committee March 29, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Good morning Chairs and members of the Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf state's minimum wage. Projections use a 2.0% growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Source: The Economic Policy Institute. Minimum Wage Tracker (published January 7, 2021). Independent Fiscal Office 22 February 2021 PA Worker Distribution by Hourly Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_CR_June_29_2023.pdf 450 to $500 million • These include rate reduction, which reduces incentives to shift profits to other states, the codification of economic nexus and market sourcing, which expand the tax base. Potential Revenue Impact from Combined Reporting • A filing method that effectively Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdf for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). April 5, 2023 Page 2 Your Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf latest revenue forecast released by the IFO (January 31, 2022) and long-term projections contained within the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 (November 2021). As with the prior analysis, the estimates should Hits: 1
IFO_ Job_Posting_Jan_2022.pdf IFO is accepting applications for employment. Qualified applicants should have a bachelor’s degree in a quantitative field such as economics, finance, accounting, statistics, or mathematics. Strong writing skills are also required, as well as proficiency with Microsoft Office products. Starting Hits: 1
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf 9 3.1 4.2 10.1 Banking & Securities 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.0 7.2 Community & Economic Development 1.0 2.2 3.5 4.8 11.6 Conservation & Natural Resources 3.2 6.8 10.9 Hits: 1
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf October 24, 2022 2 When the Goal is NOT to Maximize ROI Some tax credits are not designed to motivate economic growth ▪ Charitable contributions ▪ Environmental protection ▪ Public health Evaluating these programs presents unique challenges ▪ Calculating an ROI for these programs does Hits: 1
Electricity_Update_2024.pdf decline is nearly double the 2020 rate (-6.6%), when emissions were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and reduced economic activity. Table 3 shows net generation, estimated emissions and emissions per unit of generation for Pennsylvania and regional states. Pennsylvania Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2024.pdf ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2024-25 to 2029-30 Pennsylvania Date and Time RSVP Here Agenda Thursday, November 14 Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2023.pdf ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 Pennsylvania Date and Time RSVP Here Agenda Wednesday, November 15 Hits: 1
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf municipal. Based on property tax collection data reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), the IFO estimates that 70 percent of total property tax is levied by school districts and 30 percent Hits: 1
Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdf to link borrowers who are taking on new debt with those that paid down debt using federal stimulus (e.g., economic impact payments, PPP loans, enhanced unemployment compensation) during the federal health emergency. Representative Gleim requested data on loans or withdrawals Hits: 1
Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf Street. The session is open to the public. After the briefing, a report discussing the revenue projections and Pennsylvania’s economic outlook will be available on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document will describe Hits: 1
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf year, under plausible assumptions. - Invested assets from Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. - Taxes from Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.3. - Taxes and assets are in fiscal year 2016 dollars, adjusted using GDP price index. - Risk Hits: 1
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf averaged 35% prior to the implementation of Act 25. • Pennsylvania wages and salaries, published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Quarterly wages and salaries were used to determine the annual growth by fiscal year from FY 1 Act Hits: 1
2020 PBB Agenda.pdf Manager Carol Kilko, Deputy Secretary of Business Financing 11:00 am – 12:00 pm Review of Department of Community and Economic Development Plan Dennis Davin, Secretary, DCED Kevin Rowland, Director of Financial Management Center 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm Lunch Hits: 1
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf Consulting Actuary Vice Chairman Mr. A. Carville Foster Retired Legislator Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Mr. William A. Murray Executive Vice President The Packard Press Legislative Appointees Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Hits: 1