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Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

Tags: budget, economic, employment, gas, presentation

March 2021 Economic Update

The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

Tags: budget, economic, presentation

Economic and Budget Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

Tags: budget, demographic, economic, estimates, presentation, property

February 2021 Economic Update

The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

Tags: budget, economic, outlook

January 2021 Economic Update

The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

December 2020 Economic Update

The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

December Economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Association of Community Bankers.

Tags: economic, presentation, revenue

November 2020 Economic Update

The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

November Economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives and the PICA 2020 Fall Conference.

Tags: economic, presentation, revenue

Revenue and Economic Update FY 2020-21

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its October Revenue and Economic Update. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

Tags: economic, revenue

IFO Public Briefing: October 2020 Revenue and Economic Update

The IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

Tags: economic, presentation, revenue

October 2020 Economic Update

The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax

September 2020 Economic Update

The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

August 2020 Economic Update

The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, monthly, news

August 2020 Economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee (Democrat).

Tags: economic, revenue

July 2020 Economic Update

The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

Economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics

As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products.

Tags: economic, plastics, report

June 2020 Economic Update

The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

May 2020 Economic Update

The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, monthly, news

April 2020 Economic Update

The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, monthly, news

IFO News Stand - March Edition

The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, news

February 2020

The Commonwealth collected $2.17 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $125.9 million compared to February 2019.

Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue

IFO News Stand - February Edition

The February edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, news

Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings.

Testimony

Tags: economic, revenue

JANUARY 2020

The Commonwealth collected $3.07 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $186.0 million compared to January 2019.

Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue

Budget and economic Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

03/31/2021

March 2021 economic Update

The March edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

03/22/2021

Budget and economic Update Presentation

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

03/11/2021

Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020.

02/23/2021

economic and Budget Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/19/2021

February 2021 economic Update

The February edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

02/18/2021

Five Year economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

01/21/2021

January 2021 economic Update

The January edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

01/20/2021

January 2021 economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

01/11/2021

December 2020 economic Update

The December edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

12/16/2020

December economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Association of Community Bankers.

12/09/2020

November 2020 economic Update

The November edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

11/25/2020

State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

11/24/2020

November economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives and the PICA 2020 Fall Conference.

11/18/2020

Revenue and economic Update FY 2020-21

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its October Revenue and economic Update. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

10/29/2020

IFO Public Briefing: October 2020 Revenue and economic Update

The IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

10/23/2020

October 2020 economic Update

The October edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

10/22/2020

Pennsylvania economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

10/15/2020

September 2020 economic Update

The September edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

09/23/2020

Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook.

09/08/2020

August 2020 economic Update

The August edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

08/25/2020

August 2020 economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee (Democrat).

08/19/2020

July 2020 economic Update

The July edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

07/23/2020

June 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. 

07/01/2020

economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics

As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products.

06/30/2020

June 2020 economic Update

The June edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

06/17/2020

May 2020 economic Update

The May edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

05/20/2020

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”

04/23/2020

April 2020 economic Update

The April edition of our Monthly economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

04/22/2020

Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19

The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy.

04/08/2020

IFO News Stand - March Edition

The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

03/25/2020

economic and Budget Update Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/28/2020

IFO News Stand - February Edition

The February edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

02/20/2020

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25.

02/06/2020

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

01/29/2020

OBMD, MTBI, R&D, and KIZ Tax Credit Reviews and PBB Overview for DCED, DOH and DHS

IFO presentation of Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, Research and Development and Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Reviews and Performance-Based Budget highlights for the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Health and Department of Human Services.  

01/22/2020

Department of Community and economic Development

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Community and economic Development.

01/21/2020

Department of Human Services - Part 1

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-Based Budget Board.

01/21/2020

Department of Health

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Health.

01/20/2020

Department of Environmental Protection

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Environmental Protection.

01/16/2020

Department of State

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State.

01/16/2020

Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency.

01/16/2020

IFO News Stand - January Edition

The January edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

01/15/2020

IFO News Stand - December Edition

The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

12/20/2019

Presentation to Grow PA Coalition

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Grow PA Coalition on the Pennsylvania Demographic and economic Outlook.

12/02/2019

FIVE YEAR economic AND BUDGET OUTLOOK

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.

11/14/2019

Five Year economic and Budget Outlook

Announcement: The IFO will present its Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The Tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on Pennsylvania's tax and business climate.

11/06/2019

IFO News Stand-October Edition

The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

10/24/2019

IFO NEWS STAND - SEPTEMBER EDITION

The September edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

09/25/2019

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 

08/28/2019

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/18/2019

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/20/2019

Budget and economic Update

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants regarding an update on Pennsylvania's budget and economic landscape.  

06/11/2019

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/22/2019

economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania.

05/16/2019

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/22/2019

Revenue and economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on April 17, 2019 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania.

04/17/2019

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."  

03/22/2019

IFO News Stand - March Edition

The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

03/19/2019

SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.  

03/18/2019

economic & Budget Outlook Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

03/01/2019

IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION

The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

12/11/2018

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) state tax rates and (4) state debt levels.

12/03/2018

IFO News Stand - November Edition

The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

11/20/2018

PA Fiscal Update and Outlook

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania that reviews highlights from the IFO's recent economic and Budget Outlook.

11/19/2018

FIVE YEAR economic AND BUDGET OUTLOOK

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.  

11/15/2018

IFO News Stand - October Edition

The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

10/17/2018

Revenue and economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on October 9, 2018 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania.  

10/09/2018

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

08/20/2018

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/24/2018

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/19/2018

Budget and economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

06/12/2018

Budget And economic Update with Property Tax Discussion

Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO). Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman also discussed an updated school district property tax forecast and recent proposed legislation. 

06/05/2018

Budget and economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the Allegheny Conference on Community Development and the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia. 

06/04/2018

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/16/2018

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/20/2018

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/18/2018

Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20.  The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table

02/16/2018

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

02/01/2018

School District Property Tax Forecast

This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property.  Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23.

01/18/2018

Responsiveness of State Tax Revenues to economic Growth

In response to a legislative request, the IFO compared the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states.

12/26/2017

Five Year economic and Budget Outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share

11/16/2017

Child Care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania

The report provides an overview of the economic impacts of state spending on subsidized child care and no-cost pre-kindergarten programs in Pennsylvania.

09/06/2017

Like-Kind Exchange Analysis

The IFO responds to a request regarding the economic benefit and tax revenue impact from eliminating Pennsylvania personal income tax on like-kind exchanges.

07/10/2017

Budget and economic Update

Director Matt Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA). 

06/07/2017

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017)

04/05/2017

Horse Racing Analysis

Act 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to JSGC (March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017)

03/13/2017

economic Forecast Summit Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Fifth Annual economic Forecast Summit sponsored by the Pennsylvania Chamber Educational Foundation and the Pennsylvania Bankers Association. 

02/28/2017

Budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees

The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21.  The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas.    Download a version for optimized web viewing

02/16/2017

Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

02/10/2017

Five Year economic and Budget Outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk

11/15/2016

A Look Forward: Pennsylvania’s economic and Revenue Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar regarding Pennsylvania's economic and revenue outlook.

05/13/2016

The Implications of economic and Demographic Trends for State and Municipal Tax Policy

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation at the Urban economic and Policy Conference sponsored by Drexel University and Econsult Solutions entitled "The Implications of economic and Demographic Trends for State and Municipal Tax Policy."

04/24/2016

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/21/2016

economic Development Incentives

This research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives. The report displays this information for the two most recently completed fiscal years (FY): 2013-14 and 2014-15.  

03/25/2016

Demographic and economic Trends for Pennsylvania's Older Residents

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the House Aging and Older Adult Services Committee, which provided demographic and economic trends for Pennsylvania’s older residents.

03/23/2016

Budget and economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic and revenue update to the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce. 

01/29/2016

Five-Year economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (Updated January 2016) Presentation

01/27/2016

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

The report examines how Pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of economic Analysis to make comparisons.

03/30/2015

State economic Comparison

This research brief uses Real GDP, Personal Income and Payroll Employment to compare economic performance in Pennsylvania to four adjacent states and the U.S. over the past decade.

09/30/2014

Uncapping the Film Production Tax Credit: A Fiscal and economic Analysis

This report presents the results of an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on the fiscal and economic impacts of eliminating the cap on Pennsylvania’s film production tax credit (FPTC). The report also considers stand-alone tax credits for post-production and digital interactive media services.

05/31/2013

An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania

Estimates the fiscal and economic impact of expanding Medicaid (Medical Assistance) under the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). The scope of the analysis is limited to the impact of Medicaid expansion; it does not address the costs, savings or economic effects of the ACA generally.

04/22/2013

TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The HPTC differs from other tax credits because short-term economic development is not a primary goal. Rather, the credit seeks to revitalize distressed communities, preserve state and local heritage and facilitate longer-

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity four to five times that amount in new spending, critics believe the tax credit does little to promote economic growth because a large portion of the subsidized expenses flow out of state as wages to non-residents and some recipients would

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Act 20 of 2019 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to “evaluate the economic impact to the Com- monwealth, its industry partners and consumers for any regulation impacting single-use plastics, reusable plastics, auxiliary containers, wrappings

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity non-re- fundable credits, at a rate of $1,000 per job for up to three years. The economic impact of any job creation program is largely dependent on whether the jobs associated with the program would have been created in

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or Section 2: Demographic Outlook .............................................................................................. 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office (August 2019) or

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RB-2016-02.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice March 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐2 March 2016 Economic Development Incentives Economic development incentives attempt to stimulate economic growth through various direct (e.g., expenditures) and indirect (e.g., tax credits) spending

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Act 48. The KIZ Tax Credit is unique to Pennsylvania, and only Maryland’s RISE program, which promotes economic and community development around qualified institutions, is somewhat comparable. Other states offer programs with similar goals and objectives, but requirements are generally

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

January 2012 The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-2017 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Forward Act 120 of 2010 establishes the Independent this report does not offer any policy recommendations. The data and projections used by this report come from various sources. Economic projections for the US and Pennsylvania are from the January 2012 forecast by Global Insight, Inc. Demographic projections are from

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

The Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2012-13 to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report to IFO website: www.ifo.state.pa.us.  Demographic Outlook  New projections from Penn State Data Center.  Economic Outlook  Latest projections from IHS Global Insight.  Expenditure Outlook  Special focus on healthcare and pensions.  Guest

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RB-2017-5.pdf

State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Responsiveness of Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction This analysis responds to a request the General Assembly to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The analysis compares the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 1 For this analysis, tax revenue data compiled

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Independent Fiscal Office

Independent Fiscal Office IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Independent Fiscal Office Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Natural Gas Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review News Stand & Other Featured Releases Impact Pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states. ... (Full Report) March 2021 Revenue Update Revenue & Economic Update April 01, 2021 The Commonwealth collected $4.84 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $407

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Research and Development Spending Trends .................................................................................. 16 Research and Development Employment Trends ............................................................................. 17 State Comparison Summary ........................................................................................................... 19 Section 4: Economic Analysis ................................................................................................. 21 Key Findings from RDTC Studies .................................................................................................... 21 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 23 Analysis Caveats............................................................................................................................ 27 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 29 General Findings

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity of the direct capital investment on the state economy. This analysis examines the issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania MTBI Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Westmoreland County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office terrorism). The report presents a general discussion of the issues involved in divestment legislation, summaries of analytical studies of prior economic sanction programs, including their cost and effectiveness, the concerns raised by State involvement in foreign affairs and reliance upon private

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IFO ppt.pdf

January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Background • Public Act 120 of 2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Community and Economic Development. All perfor- mance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook For 2019 and 2020, the U.S. economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook For 2019 and 2020, the U.S. Economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity by the IFO. The numbers contained in this report are projections that may change due to policy decisions and unforeseen economic events. Consistent with the IFO’s mission, the office does not make policy recommendations and this report will be posted

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report in Novem- ber. However, due to the partial-year budget, the IFO has postponed release of that document to a

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

RACP projects by county.  A summary of debt limit changes to the program.  A discussion of the potential economic impact to local units.  An analysis of the potential fiscal impact from the proposed debt limit reduction.  A grant program administered by the Governor’s Budget Office (GBO). It provides funding for the acquisition and construction of local economic, cultural, civic, recreational and historical improvement projects that cannot be primarily funded by other state programs. The sale of general

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The economic outlook is the starting point for the General Fund revenue estimate be- cause most revenue

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The economic outlook is the starting point for the General Fund revenue estimate be- cause most revenue

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

commonly used to compare the relative burden of taxes across states. The third section discusses the entities who bear the economic and statutory burden of the tax. Due to recent federal rate cuts, a number of analyses can be surveyed for state-level profits because those amounts are determined by policy choices (e.g., apportionment formulas, reporting methods), as opposed to economic criteria. Table 2 displays the personal income and per capita measures for state CNIT revenues for FY 2015-16. These

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

11. The Keystone Pension Report, Governor’s Office of the Budget, 1 November 2012, p. 7. Independent Fiscal Office, The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, November 2 2012, pp. 49-50. Independent Fiscal Office, The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, November 3 2012, p. 49. Public Employee Retirement Commission, Status Report

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

distressed areas or support neighborhood conservation. 1 This tax credit program is administered by the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) and consists of five components: (1) the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit, (2) the Special Program Priorities, (3 unchanged. This report provides an overview of each component of the NAP, explains how the program works and estimates the economic impact of state spending for this purpose. 2 PROGRAM OVERVIEW The Neighborhood Assistance Program utilizes tax credits to encourage private

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Economic & Revenue Update Pennsylvania House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the past year, and all reports are available on

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these reports are available on the office

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these reports are available on the office

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

This research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The brief divides economic development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity be representative of employment trends for MRO service providers. 11 U.S. Department of Commerce, 2002 and 2007 Economic Census, Product Line Statistics by Kind of Business. 12 A fixed based operator is “a commercial business granted the right by the

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

Congressional Budget Office Presentation for the Independent Fiscal Office, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2018 Jeffrey Kling Associate Director for Economic Analysis Transparency at CBO For more information, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update on Transparency at CBO (August 2018), www CBO estimates the operating costs of Air Force aircraft  A working paper on how CBO produces its 10-year economic forecast Explaining Analytical Methods: Providing Technical Information 7 CBO Explaining Analytical Methods: CBO’s Forecasting Models That working paper on

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MER-2014-04.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

inception of the office in September 2011, and currently he supervises a staff of eight. Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2014-15 Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $1.675 million Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

million) and escheats collections ($118 million). Other revenue sources were relatively close to estimate. Table 2 (next page) displays relevant economic growth rates for calendar year (CY) 2020 used by the IFO for its Mid-Year Update (January 2020) and the Dividends 6.0% -10.0% -20.0% Corporate Profits 3.0% -15.0% -25.0% Table 2 CY 2020 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates Notes: Excludes impact of federal stimulus. Corporate profits are domestic profits for non-financial firms. Independent Fiscal Office

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS & THE PA ECONOMY PA State Association of Boroughs Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 MATTHEW through 2025.  Disclaimer: trends may not translate to all local units. Aging’s impact on the state economy.  Economic growth. Job Creation. Spending patterns.  Service sector jobs. Slower growth. Housing pressures. Transition to local unit trends.  Earned

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. This submission includes data, tables and legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists reports published by the IFO during the past year, and all reports are available on the

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent economic indicators provide different perspectives on the state and national economies. Some national indicators suggest an increasing risk of recession. Those

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 May 8.2% 99.3 5.6% 8.7%

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MER-2015-06.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by

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MER-2015-03.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 21, 2021 Today’s Presentation Four Parts  Demographics a contracting labor force  Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  Expenditures significant growth

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 181.7 4.3% 11

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About IFO

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity Treasury and an economist by the Michigan Department of Treasury. Mr. Knittel holds a M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Michigan State University and a bachelor's degree in Economics from Hope College in Holland, Michigan. Mr. Knittel has

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. 2 The Independent residents For 2014 typical migrant is ~31 years old typical PA resident is ~41 years old 11 12.May.2016 Economic Impacts 12 12.May.2016 Labor Force May Contract Aging of Workforce Labor Participation Rates Must Increase Composition of Income

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

969.2% FYTD $30,902 $30,258 $644 Growth 1.0% 2.6% -41.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INCREASES In recent months, U.S. economic uncertainty has increased due to weak job growth, tepid business investment and pressure on corporate profits. Those economic indicators can

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MER-2014-07.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Dec 7.8% 201.0 4.3%

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 8.1% 156.7 6.1% 8.0% 76.4

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity 4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analy- sis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This analysis uses various data

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Presentation Overview Economic Outlook o Changes to forecast. o Consumer spending is crucial – primary driver of economic growth. Revenue Forecast o Estimates vs. Year‐to‐Date actuals. o Outlook for rest of fiscal year and next fiscal 2013 2013 Revenue Conference 2 Pennsylvania Forecast 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 3 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. 2011 2012 2013

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity the calendar year. The measure is different than state personal income reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts because personal income is a measure of “economic” income. Economic income is an appropriate

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MER-2015-02.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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MER-2014-08.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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MER-2014-06.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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MER-2014-05.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a r c h 2 0 1 3 Jan 7.9% 195.0 4.4% 11.4% 73

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Act 120 of 2010. Matthew Knittel serves as director for a staff of nine individuals. Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative emphasis. The FY 2013-14 Governor’s Executive Budget proposes an appropriation of $1 Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Nov-12 7.7% 138.7 4

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity the calendar year. The measure is different than state personal income reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts because personal income is a measure of “economic” income. Economic income is an appropriate

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

to September 2019. Pennsylvania Personal Income Grows by 12.0% in Q2 On September 24, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data for 2020 Q2. Pennsylvania personal income grew 12.0% in the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 34.0% in 2020 Q2, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 2. National real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.4%, contracting in all 50

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

southwest regions. U.S. Personal Income Records Strong Growth in April On May 29, 2020 the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released personal income statistics for April 2020. Compared to the prior year, data show that U.S. personal income stay-at-home measures to help contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Consumers Spent Roughly Half of Federal Economic Impact Payments The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released a working paper that measured the effects of COVID-19 Economic

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25, 2017 Presentation has three parts.  Economic update. Unexpected broad weakness.  Revenue update for FY 2016-17.  Revenue forecast for FY 2017-18. Theme: What

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MER-2015-01.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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MER-2014-11.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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MER-2014-09.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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MER-2014-02.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average

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MER-2013-12.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office | November 2019 1 Welcome Katherine Loughead | Tax Foundation  Modernizing PA Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner | Institute for Taxation & Economic Policy  Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office  Pennsylvania demographic, economic and fiscal outlook

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

No governing board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at request of General Assembly.  Office makes NO rate (6.49%) proposals are effective or phased-in beginning 1/1/19. Source: FY 2017-18 Executive Budget. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 6 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP 1.3% 1

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Jun 8.2% 66.7 4

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

October Revenue and Economic Update FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office October 29, 2020 Modest Improvement to 2020 Economic Forecast October 29, 2020 1 June 2020 Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 2.6% 2.3% -5.6%

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

year that ends in June. 4 ) The top bank of figures show amounts reported to the Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) or Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) by calendar year or school year. The middle portion of the table bottom half controls for changes in millage rates and reassessments to allow for a clearer picture of the impact of economic distress on collections. In addition to economic distress, other factors can impact growth rates such as (1) the share of

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook INITIAL REVENUE ESTIMATE FISCAL YEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May All Other -44 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. JUA is Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association. May.01.2018 4 Economic Outlook May.01.2018 5 PA wage growth accelerates.  Statewide annual wage growth ~+4.3%.  Split: +1.0%

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

pay far above average | many are export based ▪ Positive synergies, spillovers, clustering and agglomeration effects January 23, 2020 2 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis has 3 steps ▪ Determine the amount/share of spending incentivized ▪ Determine type of spending and industries affected ▪ Use

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

Non-partisan vs. bi-partisan.  Primary duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. A Quick Tour Budget Status.  Where are we? How did we get here? Demographic Outlook.  Suggests economic and budgetary challenges. Economic Outlook.  Solid labor market, but consumption tepid. Budget Outlook.  Revenue and expenditures. Pensions. Gaming

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

the labor market, as some discouraged workers re-entered the labor force and sought employment. For 2014 and 2015, improving economic conditions and a more competitive labor market encouraged firms to boost wages to attract and retain quality employees, which caused longer term, much of the sudden fall in 2016 is likely due to very low inflation and cautious outlooks for economic growth. Partial data for 2016 Q3 and Q4 suggest a modest acceleration of average wage growth. For 2017, analysts anticipate

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

0 billion (2018). U.S. Personal Income Expands in 2020 Q2 On August 28, 2020 the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released personal income data for 2020 Q2. Compared to the prior year, data show that U.S. personal income than offset by an increase in transfer payments (83.6%). The large increase was driven by the distribution of federal economic impact payments and growth in unemployment insurance which includes Pandemic Unemployment Compensation Payments, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

reports on a weekly survey of over 200 businesses in the Third District (Eastern PA-NJ-DE) to track ongoing economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Virus impacts and relief efforts for the week ending May 10 are compared to Well Being Trust forecasted the number of additional deaths of despair due to the COVID-19 Recession based on three economic recovery forecasts (same pattern as the Great Recession, twice as fast or four times as fast). The analysis finds for

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

Over 70% of Economic Impact Payments Saved or Used to Pay Down Debt The New York Federal Reserve released findings from two pandemic-related surveys. Survey recipients were asked to classify how they spent the first round of Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) and how they would spend a second-round payment. Respondents reported the share of the payment used

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

payments is visible in the U.S. personal income data for 2020 Q2 published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Despite wages and salaries falling by 7.1% from 2020 Q1, personal income grew 7.3% in 2020 Q2 due to an influx of state and federal support through UC payments and other economic stimulus measures. Household Debt Declines for the First Time Since 2014 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

BFS tracks business applications for employer businesses as a measure of business formation, which acts a leading indicator of state economic activity. During the period of March 8 through April 11, 2020 business applications fell 34.3% over the prior year due to entrepreneurs simply delaying business formation due to concerns over the pandemic, others may reflect a permanent loss in economic activity. U.S. Consumer Prices Decline in March A recent WSJ article highlights the impact of COVID-19 on March

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MER-2015-04.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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MER-2014-12.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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MER-2014-10.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net

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MER-2014-03.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average

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MER-2014-01.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average

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MER-2013-11.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

this informational hearing. The IFO was created by Act 120 of 2010 to provide revenue projections and other budget and economic analysis to the General Assembly and the public. The office currently has 10 staff, including myself. I was originally appointed of the calendar year. Each year, we typically receive a number of requests from members of the General Assembly for economic or budgetary analysis. Whenever possible, we work with members to craft a response that will be informative and useful. If

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Fiscal Office (IFO).  Who we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines two 11 once fully staffed by fall.  Two transfers from GA, others are recent grads.  Nearly all analysts have economics background.  Staff are “number crunchers”. Data analysis.  Not an accounting or “watchdog” agency. 10.Jul.2012 3 2012

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK FY 2017-18 to FY 2022-23 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania NOVEMBER 2017 Welcome Matthew Knittel | Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Balance Sheet, Demographic and Economic Outlook Mark Ryan | Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Revenue and Expenditure Detail, Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson| The PEW Charitable

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

Mid-Year Update MID-YEAR Revenue Update Commonwealth of Pennsylvania January 29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts.  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data and tax reform.  Federal tax cut: economic and General Fund impact.  Revenues: FY 17-18 update; preliminary look at FY 18-19. Public presentation later today

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Oct-12 7.9% 170.3 4

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Jul 8.3% 104.3 4.2% 8

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Releases

states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states. Tags: budget , hearing Full Report March 2021 Revenue Update April 01, 2021 | Revenue & Economic Update The Commonwealth collected $4.84 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $407.9 million (9.2%) compared to March 2020. Tags: estimates , monthly , revenue Full Report Budget and Economic Update Presentation March 31, 2021 | News Stand & Other Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

Taxation of internet sales (permanent gain)  Corporate profits (both permanent and temporary)  Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor market and consumer sales May 20, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections May 20, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP June 2018 0.6% 1

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2018 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018-19 to 2023-24, is available for download

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

Presentation to PICPA December 3, 2014 Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania’s Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20 Provide Five-Year Projections For: • Pennsylvania Demographics • Pennsylvania Economics • General Fund Revenues • General Fund Expenditures Why Do We Do It? • Establish a neutral baseline to assess fiscal situation. • Identify

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

Budget and Economic Update Presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office June 11, 2019 Taxation of internet sales (permanent gain)  Corporate profits (both permanent and temporary)  Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor and housing markets June 11, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

million (84.3 percent), due to a one-time payment of $30.4 million received in July 2018. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | July 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff n.a. Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate that will be published in August 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

Growth 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. STATE GDP CONTRACTS The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for the second quarter of 2016. The release includes revised and second quarters and first half of 2016) for Pennsylvania and contiguous states. The growth of real GDP measures total economic output (adjusted for inflation), and can be used to evaluate the rate at which a state economy expands or contracts

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

stability. This metric, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE index) from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, reflects price changes of goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers. A WSJ article notes that despite the and business services (+12,100, +1.6%), retail trade (+5,600, +1.0%) and arts-entertainment (+500, +0.8%). Monthly Economic Update March 2021 Monthly Data Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.0%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

include the extension of the existing moratorium on evictions as well as student loans, and substantial emergency assistance for renters. Economic impact payments of $600 to $1,200 per eligible adult (plus amounts for dependents) are also being discussed, which could since inception. The IFO will release an updated projection of CY 2020 collections (remitted April 2021) in late January. Monthly Economic Update December 2020 Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 10.4%

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Letter_to_JSGC.pdf

to provide technical analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the to this letter. Based on these unauthorized alterations, the IFO has reservations regarding the provision of future technical assistance or economic analysis. The IFO cannot stand behind the final product if its submissions are altered without consent, consultation or notice. As

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast.  General weakness. All forecasts underperform.  An exception: PA labor market posts solid gains.  Recent U.S

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2021-22 through FY 2025-26 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Forecast Overview Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate is the result of flat millage rates combined with a projected tax base reduction of 1.5 percent due to economic distress related to the COVID-19 pandemic. A July 2020 IFO report projected that current-year school district property taxes

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity contained in Act 48. The OBMD differs from most tax credits because program goals do not include increased economic devel- opment or job creation. Instead, the OBMD seeks to improve outcomes for patients awaiting organ and bone marrow transplants by reducing

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity update for FY 2019-20 was released on January 28, 2020. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year. • May Update This revenue estimate occurs in May of the

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REU-2020-02.pdf

64.7 million (29.5 percent) above estimate. The overage is driven by stronger than expected escheats revenues. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | February 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff 8 64.7 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to the IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20

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REU-2020-01.pdf

projections. This overage is partially offset by the lower than projected licenses and fees revenues (-$17.4 million). Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | January 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff official estimate published in June 2019. Cigarette 64.6 58.0 6.6 618.7 616.5 2.2 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20

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REU-2019-12.pdf

tax revenues exceed estimate by $61.7 million. The overage is driven by escheat revenues ($87.8 million). Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | December 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff 199.8 61.7 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19

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REU-2019-11.pdf

shortfall in licenses and fees is a timing issue related to the payment of fees for gaming licenses. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | November 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff 173.4 63.9 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Nov-19

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REU-2019-10.pdf

portion of this gain is offset by licenses and fees collections which are $20.2 million under estimate. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | October 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through October October Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff official estimate published in June 2019. Cigarette 98.4 92.9 5.5 353.4 356.5 -3.1 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 16, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, is available for download

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a long-term economic and budget outlook for Pennsylvania, according to director Matthew Knittel. The report, entitled The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce February 12, 2015 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office Budget and Economic Update What Is the Independent Fiscal Office? • Our role in the budget process. • Other products and publications. Tax Revenues and Deficits. • Tax revenues through January 2015. • Revisions to FY 2014-15 General Fund revenues. • Implications for projected budget deficits. Latest Economic Developments. • Gas prices. Consumer confidence. Low inflation. 12.Feb.2015 2 Today’s Presentation  Act 120 of 2010 Creates

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

o What impact from phase-out of Defined Benefit plans? o Are savings and investments sufficient? Income less Dependent on Economic Growth 12.June.2014 15 Trend: Less Reliance on Wage Income 12.June.2014 16 2007 2011 18-34 35- Construction. For PA, Healthcare & Social Assistance Sector is Vital o ~19% of private sector jobs in 2013. o ~11% of economic output in 2013. Trend Continues due to Aging Demographic o Will impact economic growth. 12.June.2014 17 Trend: Jobs

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the A Look Forward: Pennsylvania’s Economic and Revenue Outlook 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation • Solid Labor Market • Some Wage Weakness Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

the Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining in Executive Budget. ◦ Any proposal that affects tax revenues. Dec.13.2017 4 Today: A (Very) Quick Overview Highlights from Economic & Budget Outlook. ◦ Demographics: rapid aging, domestic out-migration. ◦ Economics: latest data show 2016 weaker than expected. ◦ Short- and long-term

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

large collection month is December, when the fourth CNIT estimated payment for tax year 2019 will be received. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | September 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff 4 70.1 24.4 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

and is related to a gaming license fee that was anticipated in July 2019 but received in June. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | August 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff official estimate published in June 2019. Cigarette 102.6 101.7 0.9 153.3 159.2 -5.9 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

In June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updated the Quarterly State Personal Income series for the first quarter of 2017. The data include personal income recent per capita gain is due to Pennsylvania’s contracting population, which provides a temporary boost, but may restrain future economic growth. Since 2012, Pennsylvania personal income has grown at an average annual rate of 2.9%, as net earnings (3

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

Budget and Economic Update Marcellus Shale Coalition March 31, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong  Down 441k jobs in February from prior year  Positives: housing market, sales tax revenues show strong

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

contrast, multifamily rents fell 0.3% over the prior year according to the September 2020 Multi-Housing News report. Monthly Economic Update November 2020 Monthly Data Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Unemployment Rate 1 12.5% in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

in June, ranging from a high of 17.4% in Massachusetts to a low of 4.3% in Kentucky. Monthly Economic Update July 2020 Monthly Data Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Unemployment Rate 1 5.8% Yahoo! Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

If food and energy are excluded, then average price levels increased by 1.2% relative to the prior year. Monthly Economic Update January 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6

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jackson ppt.pdf

US and Pennsylvania Economic Outlook Tom Jackson, Senior Economist, U.S. Regional Economics January 18, 2012 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

Matt Gardner Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy 11/14/2019 Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Introduction to ITEP The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22, will be

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 9, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21, will be

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 19, 2021 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus From PA Labor Force February 19, 2021 6 PA Economic Growth Rates February 19, 2021 7 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Real GDP 2.4% -4.3%

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

in projected General Fund revenue from FY 2017-18 to 2021-22 in the IFO’s November 2016 five-year economic and budget outlook. Table 4 provides de- tail for each fiscal year. Table 2 divides the projected costs/(savings) into must make in order to fully fund the benefits earned by employees, and is based on the de- mographic and economic assumptions (e.g., inflation and the investment rate of return) that are adopted by the Systems. The ENC is expressed

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Mid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2019-20 Preliminary Forecast FY 2020-21 January 28, 2020 PA Economic Forecast: June 2019 vs January 2020 January 28, 2020 1 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school to the school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) millage rate increases as limited under Act 1. 2 Introduction Table 1: School Property Tax Forecast Actual

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity update for FY 2017-18 was released on January 29, 2018. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year. • May Update This revenue estimate occurs during the first week

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts May U 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic May 26, 2020 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change IHS Markit

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RB-2015-04.pdf

lose employment. The Independent Fiscal Of Ðice issues this research brief to ful Ðill its statutory obligation to provide an economic analysis of all economic and revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget. Table 1 provides a comparison of minimum wage rates for Pennsylvania and

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

RETIREMENT SYSTEM CONSULTING SERVICES, INFORMATION, AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE Creation and Management. Under section 301(a)(16) of the Community and Economic Development Enhancement Act, the Department of Commu- nity and Economic Development has the duty to provide technical assistance and consultive services to local govern- ments. Governor's Center for Local

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

Economy has absorbed some hits. o A few more to come. Tax Revenues. o Best real-time indicator of PA economic conditions. Upcoming Studies. o HB 76 and SB 76. o Five-Year Outlook. 24 . Sept . 2013 2 Today’s Presentation PA Economic Outlook Weakens annual growth rate or levels 2012 2013 2014 Wages and Salaries Dec 2012 Forecast 3.4% 3.2%

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

contracts.  Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 7/14/2017 2 Today’s Presentation PA’s long-term structural imbalance.  Origins date to 50% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note: Pennsylvania General Fund expenditures and revenues as a percentage of state GDP. Source: Economic and Budget Outlook, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2016. Demographic Trends 7/14/2017 6 Subtle, yet crucial impact.  Hard

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Long-Term Fiscal Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 10, 2017 partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

Mid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2018-19 Preliminary Forecast FY 2019-20 January 29, 2019 Forecast: June 2018 7 Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised for 2016 and 2017. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 29, 2019 2 2015 2016

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

Fiscal Office Today’s Presentation I. The Foundation: Demographics.  Baby Boomer retirements.  Life expectancy and migration flows. II. Economic Trends for Seniors.  Seniors working more: ~25% in 2016.  More income dedicated to housing expenses.  More housing different data source. Share is percentage outflow. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. II. Economic Trends  U.S. and PA economic growth downshifts.  Similar to Japan and Europe.  Much due to normal

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

purchases data are not available. Hence, it is not clear why PA sales tax revenues continue to lag other key economic metrics, or U.S. consumer spending generally. Consumer spending will need to accelerate for the PA economy to break from its tepid economic expansion. Sales tax revenues for May were encouraging (3.2% growth), but additional data are needed to establish a new

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

and supports thousands of jobs by matching borrowers and lenders. The industry has been evolving in recent years due to economic pressures and new financial regulations. Since 2006, an average of ten banks per year have closed or been acquired, according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Two major economic forces have contributed to consolidation in the banking industry. First, the financial crisis left smaller banks in a weaker financial

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

Wage June 2014 2.4% 2.9% n.a. key assumption Jan 2015 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% PA Economic Forecasts 28.Jan.2015 4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Construction 6.9 3.1 0.1 7.9 7 Labor Statistics. 2014 is preliminary. 2015 estimate by IFO. Annual Job Gains and Losses (000s) 28.Jan.2015 5 PA Economic Growth Rates ‐3.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

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IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s five-year economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25, is available for download

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

provide some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to discuss recent economic and revenue trends. I would also like to make some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based 2018 Q3) while per capita consumer debt increased modestly (1.8%) for the entire year. Overall, these data suggest sound economic fundamentals and potential for further expansion into next fiscal year. However, there are some headwinds for this year and next

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2013 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Independent Fiscal Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19, provides data

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 28, 2020 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins annual average growth rate over the time period. Source: Historical data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. PA Economic Growth Rates February 28, 2020 5 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real Gross Dom Product

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

Budget and Economic Update CompetePA March 11, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and next, then deficits  A is significant  Significant monies now available for certain spending priorities next year Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong  Down 472k jobs in December from prior year  IFO projects six years needed to return to

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

not review that material in the limited time for opening remarks. Rather, I would like to summarize the IFO’s economic and revenue outlook for the current and next fiscal year. A core function of the IFO is the provision of our estimate, it still relies on stronger growth in the second half of the fiscal year. Factors that likely affected economic growth and tax revenues in 2013, such as the expiration of the federal payroll tax cut and the federal budget

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office SERS PARTICIPATING EMPLOYERS THAT ALSO PARTICIPATE IN THE REHP Aging Agriculture Attorney General Auditor General Banking Civil Service Commission Community & Economic Development Conservation & Natural Resources Corrections Education Environmental Hearing Board Environmental Protection Executive Offices Fish and Boat Commission Game Commission General

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office guaran- teed by the employer. Predictable amount of benefit makes retirement planning easier. Benefit is variable and is impacted by: economic environment before and at retirement, the frequency of cash-out elections made by employee upon change of employers, and the

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides a summary of the IFO’s 2019 2 school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) tax rate increases as limited under Act 1. 2 The tax base expands when new properties are

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity update for FY 2018-19 was released on January 29, 2019. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year.  May Update This revenue estimate occurs in May of

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

On March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was enacted as part of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. 1 The program made forgivable loans available to small businesses and other entities that met certain criteria to Small Business Administration (SBA) size standards for their industry. 2 The primary goal of the PPP was to provide economic relief to small businesses and non- profits that had been adversely impacted by COVID-19 and related mitigation efforts. Due

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RB-2018-01.pdf

and property tax assessment data. Projections for FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report also incorporates recent IFO research regarding the to the school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) tax rate increases as limited under Act 1. 3 The tax base increases when new properties are

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 1, 2019 Today’s IFO Presentation  Executive Summary | Crucial Assumptions | Recession Risk  Demographics: a contracting workforce  Economics: modest 2018 gains from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE The Allegheny Conference on Community Development and The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

November Economic and Revenue Update PICA Fall Conference 2020 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 18, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data November 18, 2020 1 October 2020 Annual Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

December Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director December 9, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data December 9, 2020 1 Annual Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1.9% 2

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

12) 802 717 85 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Sentiment Index 6 98.4 97.2 100.0 98.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

2 803 706 97 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Sentiment Index 6 93.8 98.4 97.2 100.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

58 769 674 95 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Sentiment Index 6 91.2 93.8 98.4 97.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

24) 528 492 36 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Sentiment Index 6 98.3 91.2 93.8 98.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

11 405 344 61 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Sentiment Index 6 97.5 98.3 91.2 93.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

7 374 325 49 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Sentiment Index 6 98.6 97.5 98.3 91.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

47 356 313 42 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Sentiment Index 6 100.1 98.6 97.5 98.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

31 262 266 (4) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Sentiment Index 6 96.2 100.1 98.6 97.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

24) 104 140 (35) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Sentiment Index 6 97.9 96.2 100.1 98.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections FYTD Collections MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Building Permits 7 9.2% 10.4% 9.5% n.a. 10.7% 3.9% -3.9% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

34 74 86 (12) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Sentiment Index 6 98.2 97.9 96.2 100.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

23) 31 55 (23) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sentiment Index 6 98.8 98.0 98.2 97.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

564 2,819 (256) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Sentiment Index 6 101.4 98.8 98.0 99.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

468 2,597 (129) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Sentiment Index 6 99.7 101.4 98.8 98.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

456 2,390 65 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Building Permits 7 9.2% 8.1% 5.9% n.a. -1.2% 8.9% 6.5% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

256 1,936 320 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Building Permits 7 9.5% 9.2% 8.1% n.a. -3.9% -1.2% 8.9% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections FYTD Collections MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Building Permits 7 10.4% 9.5% 9.2% n.a. 3.9% -3.9% -1.2% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

9% $104 70.6% Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Building Permits 7 8.6% 9.2% 10.4% n.a. 25.7% 10.7% 3.9% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

181.1% $115 104.4% Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Building Permits 7 10.0% 8.6% 9.2% n.a. 13.5% 25.7% 10.7% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

sales will be going forward. January 2017 Monthly Trends Report Pennsylvania Housing Market 1 National Association of Realtors, “U.S. Economic Outlook: December 2016,” December 2016. 2 National Association of Realtors, “Existing-Home Sales Slide in December; 2016 Sales Best Since Building Permits 7 8.9% 7.5% 8.6% n.a. 12.3% 18.8% 20.7% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

3% Dollar amounts are in millions. BEA RELEASES EARNINGS FOR 2015 On March 24 th , the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state Personal Income data for 2015 Q4. 1 Personal Income is a broad measure that includes all Building Permits 7 10.7% 11.5% 12.3% n.a. -12.4% -3.1% 10.4% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

when corporations remit their final payments for tax year 2015. February 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 will be released March 25. 2 Third quarter mining profits from the Building Permits 7 10.5% 10.7% 11.5% n.a. -10.1% -12.4% -3.1% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

FaɆɆiɈg EɈeɌgɓ PɌiceɍ DɌiɐe Lɉɑ IɈfɆaɎiɉɈ aɈd EɆiɇiɈaɎe COLAɍ The inflation rate, an important economic indicator, has remained relatively low over the past three years, and that outcome has implications for large federal transfers made Building Permits 7 9.3% 11.2% 9.4% n.a. -11.0% 2.3% -0.8% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity issued only after the application is approved, the investment is complete and the De- partment of Community and Economic Development (DCED) has approved all documentation. Therefore, these provisions are not projected to reduce FY 2019-20 collections. Personal Income Tax Conformity

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through last year, while total mortgage debt of Pennsylvania consumers was flat (includes home equity loans). Overall, these data suggest sound economic fundamentals and potential for further expansion into next fiscal year. There are three concerns which temper this optimistic outlook. First

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IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf

created to provide objective and timely analysis to the General Assembly and Commonwealth citizens regarding a wide range of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. (See 71 Pa.C.S., Ch. 41 to read the statute creating the office.) The position entails An IFO analyst: 1) compiles, organizes, analyzes and forecasts data relating to state revenues, expenditures and the economy; 2) applies economic and statistical principles, practices and techniques to design and complete research on fiscal and economic issues; 3) prepares regular reports

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

Economic and Revenue Update Harrisburg Trade Association Executives May 15, 2019 U.S. and PA Economic Trends May 15, 2019 1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP 2.9% 1.6% 2.2%

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Update Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | December 3, 2019 Number (000s) Change (000s) Average Ann Growth PA Demographic Forecast 2015 12,841 12,907 54 66 0.1% 0.1% Year-Over-Year Growth Rate, Change or Level PA Quarterly Economics 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.7% 2.5%

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Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 13, 2014 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, will be

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

the Payroll Tax Cut Impact the PA Economy and Tax Revenues? Director’s Note: The following text discusses the possible economic impact from a policy under consideration by the U.S. Congress. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) does not support or 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?”, NBER Working Paper No. 14753 and Parker, Souleles, Johnson and McClelland, “Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008”, NBER Working Paper No. 16684. 3 Across all consumer expenditures, the average figure is closer to

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity update for FY 2016-17 was released on January 25, 2017. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections for the first half of the fiscal year. • May Update This revenue estimate occurs during the first week

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Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf

Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 Date and Time: Thursday, November 13, 2014; 1:30 p.m Fourth Street or Strawberry Square) Agenda: A detailed discussion by IFO staff on the Commonwealth’s structural imbalance and the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the expenditures and revenues over the next five years. Guest Presenter: Daniel White

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

Recent Revenue and Economic Trends IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus - April 17, 2019 Growth Rate General Fund Tax Revenues 2017.3 Transfer 11.3% 7.9% 11.4% 3.6% 6.2% 8.2% -3.3% Growth Rate or Gains Pennsylvania Economics 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Real GDP 4.5% 0.1%

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Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

Recent Revenue and Economic Trends Growth Rate or Change General Fund Tax Revenues (YOY) 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Non-Motor 1%20.3%3.9%20.1% Realty Transfer -8.4%7.6%11.3%7.9%11.4%3.6% 6.2% Growth Rate or Change Pennsylvania Economics 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Real GDP (QA) -0.5%3.2% 4.5% 2.5% 2.0%

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12, 2018

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. Recent PA Economic Trends Recent Economic Trends June 7, 2017 11 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 PA Real GDP 0.9%

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts June U 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic June 22, 2020 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change IHS Markit

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

News PA Ranks 19 th in Real GDP Growth for 2018 Q1 On July 24, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for 2018 Q1. The data show that Penn- sylvania ranked 19 th in real GDP s that computes the impact of new U.S. and Chinese tariffs. The analysis shows the share of the county economic output or GDP that will be affected by the tariffs. For example, the analysis finds that for Clinton County, tariffs

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

8% $14 22.6% Dollar amounts are in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Building Permits 7 11.4% 10.0% 8.6% n.a. 16.6% 13.5% 25.7% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

6.9% Non-Tax 62 46 16 34.5% 3 4.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. Actual Estimate MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Building Permits 7 7.8% 11.4% 10.0% n.a. 2.3% 16.6% 13.5% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

Family Foundation analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

Building Permits 7 13.4% 8.3% 9.3% n.a. 6.7% 0.1% 9.2% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 Electricity Sales 13 -6.1% -4.9% -4.9% -0.6% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% -0.5% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

Building Permits 7 13.4% 11.8% 13.4% n.a. 16.9% 5.8% 6.7% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 Electricity Sales 13 -6.1% -4.9% -4.9% n.a. -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

Building Permits 7 8.6% 13.4% 11.8% n.a. 20.7% 16.9% 5.8% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 Electricity Sales 13 -3.9% -6.2% -4.9% -4.9% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

Building Permits 7 7.5% 8.6% 13.4% n.a. 18.8% 20.7% 16.9% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 Home Sales 10 5.7% 4.0% 0.8% 5.6% 11.2% 11.2% 2.8% 5.2% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

Building Permits 7 5.5% 5.4% 8.9% n.a. 3.5% -2.4% 12.3% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 Electricity Sales 13 -5.3% -1.0% -3.4% n.a. -4.5% -1.7% -2.3% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

Building Permits 7 8.3% 4.4% 5.5% n.a. 25.6% 8.7% 3.5% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 Electricity Sales 13 -3.8% -5.3% -1.0% -3.4% -1.2% -4.5% -1.7% -2.3% MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

Building Permits 7 11.8% 8.3% 4.4% n.a. 24.8% 25.6% 8.7% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 Home Sales 10 8.3% 2.0% 5.7% 4.0% 13.4% 7.1% 11.2% 9.9% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

Building Permits 7 12.3% 15.1% 14.1% n.a 10.4% 25.9% 31.2% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 Electricity Sales 13 -3.6% -3.8% -5.3% n.a. -1.6% -1.2% -4.5% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

Building Permits 7 11.5% 12.3% 15.1% n.a. -3.1% 10.4% 25.9% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 Home Sales 10 8.2% 8.3% 2.0% 5.6% 11.8% 13.3% 6.9% 9.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

Building Permits 7 8.3% 10.5% 10.7% n.a. -7.9% -10.1% -12.4% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 Home Sales 10 6.9% 8.2% 8.3% 2.2% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

Building Permits 7 11.2% 9.4% 8.3% n.a. 2.3% -0.8% -7.9% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 Electricity Sales 13 2.4% -3.5% -4.4% n.a. -0.6% -2.3% -1.6% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

Building Permits 7 10.5% 9.3% 11.2% n.a. -15.3% -11.0% 2.3% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

Building Permits 7 10.0% 9.4% 10.5% n.a -18.7% -24.1% -15.3% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.3% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Department of Labor—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

Implications  Pennsylvania undergoing dramatic transformation.  Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade.  Subtle impacts on economic growth and tax revenues.  Difficult to quantify. Must view long-term trends.  Key factor: Baby Boomers and their 2,821 535 23.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2017 and 2025 are estimates from the IFO Economic and Budget Outlook (Nov. 2017). Jan.25.2018 4 Independent Fiscal Office Multiple Factors Drive PA Aging 0 20,000

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

Economic and Revenue Update Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office August 19, 2020 Four Things to Note Wage and Salary data are  Car sales tax breaks record | projected $2 billion shift largely captured August 19, 2020 1 Latest Real-Time PA Economic Data August 19, 2020 2 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2:00 p.m. Location: 14 th Floor Conference Center an advance estimate for FY 2016-17. The office also will release an updated report on Pennsylvania’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, originally released on December 9 th , details the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will

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2019-Pub-2.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office presents Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Date and Time Economic and Budget Outlook Location Agenda Guest Presenters Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 1:30 pm Harrisburg University of Science and annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Katherine Loughead, Tax Foundation: Modernizing Pennsylvania's Tax Code as a Strategy

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2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 Date and Time: Wednesday, December 9, 2015; 2:00 p.m Floor Auditorium Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street, Harrisburg Agenda: A detailed discussion by IFO staff on the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures and revenues over the next five fiscal years. Guest

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office 23 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,433 Source: Pennsylvania Local Fact Sheet, Governor’s Center for Local Government Services, Department of Community and Economic Development, August 2002. Background Discussion (Cont'd) 2 National Volunteer Fire Council Fact Sheet, National Volunteer Fire Council, 2002. 3

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx

relevant studies over past decade. ▪ Government, academic and industry. ▪ Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis. ▪ FPTC : large ($65 million) and good data are available. ▪ JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less clear. ▪ HPTC small projects but not mid-size and large. ▪ Across all projects, offsets ~1% of total costs. ▪ Large positive spillover effects: economic, social, environmental. Recommendations for HPTC: ▪ Consider increasing credit but use scoring system to award credits to improve targeting. Lottery system

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf

over past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis.  FPTC: large ($65 million) and good data are available.  JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less but not mid-size and large.  Across all projects, offsets ~1% of total costs.  Large positive spillover effects: economic, social, environmental. Recommendations for HPTC:  Consider increasing credit but use scoring system to award credits to improve targeting. Lottery

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

from college and entering the workforce or leaving the workforce and entering retirement. Those events do not reflect how overall economic growth affects various households. By focusing on the two age cohorts, the analysis (1) largely excludes those events and (2 the following categories as outlined in the program guidelines:  Value-Added Processing - transforming milk into a product of higher economic value in the marketplace for food or non-food use.  Marketing and Promotion - increasing the domestic or international awareness

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

Stabilization Fund and (2) school districts.  Detail by revenue source.  Background on Property Tax forecast.  Some general economic analysis. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 2 The Proposal  Eliminates local distributions to school districts? 2. How do distributions compare to a “current law” property tax baseline for schools? 3. Potential economic impacts. 1. Business and non-business. 2. Homeowners and renters. 3. Home prices and rent payments. 4. Business competitiveness. 1

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

FY 2014-15 revenues were inflated by various non-recurring events,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2015-16 anticipate continued economic growth, but the absence of the one-time revenues received in the prior year reduces the overall rate of growth for the General Fund.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

1,442 million. “Revenues for FY 2013-14 unexpectedly fell below prior-year levels, an anomaly largely driven by temporary economic and technical factors,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2014-15 anticipate a return to growth due to improvements in the labor market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods

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RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf

reference map of county names.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two informative and current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although the metrics control for population, it should be noted that they do not and retirement income (e.g., Social Security and pension contributions). The measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than state

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

county names.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two of the best and most current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although the metrics control for population, it should be noted that they do not and retirement income (e.g., Social Security and pension contributions). The measure is published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than state

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our role today is 3,000 $4,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $ Millions Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014. General Fund Appropriations SERS & PSERS Total

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our role tonight is 3,000 $4,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $ Millions Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014‐15 to 2019‐20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014. General Fund Appropriations SERS & PSERS Total

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

Job Gains (000s) 64.8 40.3 14.7 45.8 54.9 55.6 22.Jun.2015 2 PA Economic Forecasts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. 2014 GDP is preliminary. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rank

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platt ppt.pdf

www.bea.gov Recent Trends in Personal Income, Earnings and Wages in Pennsylvania Joel D. Platt Associate Director for Regional Economics Revenue Forecasting Conference Independent Fiscal Office for Pennsylvania January 18, 2012 www.bea.gov BEA’s Mission To promote a better understanding of the U.S. economy by providing the most timely, relevant and accurate economic accounts data in an objective and cost- effective manner 2 www.bea.gov BEA BEA is the Nation’s economic

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE sponsored by the PA Economy League partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office

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NewsStand_2019_September.pdf

health issues and incarceration as potential fac- tors. Pennsylvania Claims Title of Most Diverse State Economy Bloomberg recently released an Economic Diversity Index for the nation, based on gross domestic product (GDP) by industry and government. A diverse economy helps insulate states from large economic swings when one industry has an economic downturn. Pennsylvania ranked first in the index, with Texas and Colorado ranked second

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

Pennsylvania News Real State GDP Growth is 2.1% for CY 2018 On May 1, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q4. The preliminary data for calendar year 2018 show that the state economy 1% (Q3) and 4.2% (Q4). Similar to patterns for the U.S., the state data show a deceleration of economic growth after the second quarter. Data for 2019 Q1 will be released at the end of July. Consumer Debt Increases

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

News Philadelphia 2018: The State of the City The PEW Charitable Trusts released a report on Philadelphia that shows bullish economic trends since the start of the year. The city accounts for roughly 12% of the total Pennsylvania population. Net job discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for 2017 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released 4 th quarter state GDP data. For the entire year, the Pennsylvania economy expanded at a real rate

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MRU-2020-04.pdf

shortfall is almost entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $385 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $140 million in processing delays or delayed due dates (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year) and the entire shortfall attributable to the virus. The IFO estimates that roughly $105 million is permanently lost due to reduced economic activity ($135 million FYTD), $55 million is tied to processing delays that will reverse this fiscal year and $1.32

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

oppose combined reporting note that:  the filing method will subject profits to state tax that have little or no economic connection to the state;  it will make the state less attractive to firms and will constrain economic growth; and  it will introduce significant administrative complexity. It is well known that determination of the unitary group is

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Links

IFO - Links IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Links U.S. Economic Indicators • Bureau of Economic Analysis • Bureau of Labor Statistics • Census Bureau • Weekly Jobless Claims • Employment Situation • Advance Retail Sales • Existing Home Sales • GDP and

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

Katharine Witgert Program Manager National Academy for State Health Policy Annual Presentation The Economic and Budget Outlook Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2012 Health Care Reform: What it Means for States a state? – How many individuals might enroll? – Who are the newly eligible? – What are the administrative costs? – What are the economic benefits & savings? 11 For analysis and links to tools, see: Medicaid Expansion: Sizing up Coverage in States http://www.statereforum

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Testimony-02-2020.pdf

PA Economic Update Testimony for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | February 18, 2020 Annual Growth Rate data for 2019 are preliminary and will be revised. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve Board of New York. Forecasts by IFO. Author: Matthew Knittel Company: Microsoft CreationDate

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity are from FYE 2010. Those years reflect the most 1 The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes state personal income data. See http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn

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SR2017-03.pdf

tax burden studies, the analysis includes certain adjustments to state personal income as computed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 The analysis adds capital gains income, IRA withdrawals and pension distributions to state personal income. 2 The analysis by the IRS) and Tables SA4 and SA40 from the National Income and Product Accounts. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes state personal income data. 2 Capital gains, IRA withdrawals and pension data are from the “SOI Tax Stats

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

Fiscal Implications of a York County School District Consolidation  Independent nonpartisan agency. • Began operations in September 2011. • Analyze fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  Office does not make policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014

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SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Figure 4.2 Annual Growth Rates for Figure 4.2 Fiscal Personal Sales School U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Creator: Matthew Knittel LastModifiedBy: MJR Created: 2013-10-21T14:35:35Z Modified: 2013-10-

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

for FY16-17. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $31.0 billion for FY15-16 represents an increase of $406 million million. Relative to the FY15-16 estimate certified by the governor in December, this estimate is $127 million higher. The economic forecast was revised to reflect recent trends in personal income tax withholding. Collections for this revenue source underperformed through the

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf

Wages are the largest component of the state economy, and the recent weakness in collections motivated a revision to the economic outlook for 2016 and 2017.” A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

for FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $30.54 billion for FY14-15 represents an increase of $1,932 FY15-16 estimate is unchanged. The two- year total is $12 million lower than the IFO’s earlier projections. The economic forecast is largely unchanged, and the changes to the estimate result from analysis of recent revenue collections and technical factors

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

economy is expected to continue expanding in FY 2015-16,” Knittel said. “However, some of the revenue growth from improved economic activity simply will offset one- time, or non-recurring, revenues received in the current year.” Relative to the Executive Budget the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

for FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $28.5 billion for FY13-14 represents a decrease of $103 million The two-year total is $95 million less than the earlier projections. The reductions are largely the result of updated economic assumptions, a lower estimate for small games of chance tax revenues and new information on the timing of potential casino

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

June 2012. More recent research finds that common and significant income tax breaks for the elderly fail to promote state economic growth. See Brewer, Ben and Karen Smith Conway and Jonathan Rork. “Do Income Tax Breaks for the Elderly Affect Economic Growth?” Working Paper (September 2017). 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Actual Actual Enacted Department of Aging: State 1 ………………………………………………………………………………. $2

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Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf

data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). 2 The estimates apply to senior homeowners only, and exclude any property tax that may be effectively remitted for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). September 19, 2019 Page 2 

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

million of one-time escheats gains and a $227 million transfer. Sources: US Census Bureau (tax revenues), US Bureau of Economic Analysis (personal income). Data for FY 2013-14 and FY 2014-15. Ratio: State and Local Taxes / State Personal Income baseline” school district property taxes grow?  How will the new replacement revenues grow?  How will both respond to economic conditions? 1/19/2017 8 Long-Term Revenue Growth Trends 1/19/2017 9 2004-05 = 1.0 1.0

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

February 2018). All source data for computations are from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 Graph 1: Cumulative Revenue and Economic Growth Since FY 2004-05 2004-05 = 1.0 PIT +60% SUT +42% CPI-U +31% GDP +62% SD Prop

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

2 Today’s Discussion  The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our role today is 6/30 SERS PSERS Projected 4/11/2016 14 Pension Projections General Fund ‐ Annual and Cumulative Increases Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2015‐16 to 2020‐21, Independent Fiscal Office, January 2016. $527 $283 $161 $170 $77 $527

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. The Independent Fiscal 7 47.6 48.6 52.4 50.6 Average annual growth rates. Values are forecasts for entire year. Pennsylvania Economic Outlook 8.Jun.2016 10 Long‐Term Budget Trends Changing Demographics Impact Longer‐Term Outlook Working Age Population Projected to

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

February 27, 2018 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office CompetePA Retreat Economy, Revenues and Budget Pennsylvania economic growth rates or change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 2.3% system  Many are subjective and reflect tax policy goals  A tax-friendly business climate need not translate to economic growth  Some rankings are incomplete and certain taxes may be omitted: severance tax, gaming taxes Tax Foundation: state business

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PEW_Presentation(Video).pptx

16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per year • Evaluation is a proven way to improve the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design and administration • An estimate of the incentive’s economic and fiscal impact • Policy recommendations pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Indiana pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Alabama pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives

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PEW_Presentation(Video).ppsx

16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per year • Evaluation is a proven way to improve the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design and administration • An estimate of the incentive’s economic and fiscal impact • Policy recommendations pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Indiana pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Alabama pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives

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perez ppt.pdf

States face ongoing budget challenges. – State tax collections remain below pre-recession levels – Officials are concerned about the strength of economic growth – Questions remain about the impact of federal deficit reduction on state budgets – The total state budget gap: $527.7 fiscal outlook is improving  A number of significant uncertainties loom: – Demands on state budgets – The strength and sustainability of economic recovery – The impact of federal actions on state budgets For More Information www.ncsl.org/fiscal arturo.perez@ncsl.org

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form of

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form of

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PBB-Tax-Credits-Schedule-2019-05.pdf

of Probation and Parole PA Commission on Crime & Delinquency Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission Banking and Securities General Services 2 Community & Economic Development Human Services – Part 1 Health Environmental Protection PA Emergency Management Agency State 3 PennDOT Human Services – Part 2 State Keystone Innovation Zones Mobile Telecom and Broadband Organ and Bone Marrow 3 Neighborhood Assistance Resource Enhancement and Protections (REAP) Entertainment & Economic Enhancement Video Game Production Keystone Special Development Zones 4 Educational Tax Credits Coal Refuse and Reclamation Mixed Use Community-Based

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

employed. Computations are by IFO and differ slightly from PA Dept. of Labor and Industry. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average Wage Growth 2017-2019 3.1% Average Wage Growth 2018-2020 on most recent withholding data IFO does not make national forecasts, relies on IHS Markit for ECI  US macro economics provider for all state executive agencies  The “all private workers” forecast is used for ECI  Usually a high

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Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf

OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf

OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf

OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf

OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the

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novak ppt.pdf

F EDERAL R ESERVE B ANK OF P HILADELPHIA Pennsylvania Economic Outlook Independent Fiscal Office January 18, 2012 Jason Novak Research and Policy Support Manager Half Empty or Half Full? • Increased economic activity equals tax revenue increases if and only if the tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

MSAs are relatively less sensitive to the business cycle than the national average. The Pennsylvania MSA least responsive to an economic down- turn is State College due to its high share of employment in the education sector. BEA Releases GDP by County For the first time, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released county-level estimates of GDP from 2001 to 2018. In 2018, Philadelphia had the largest real GDP ($110

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

and 56,700 (2018 Q4). Personal Income Growth Strong in 2018 Q4 On March 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data for 2018 Q4. For calendar year 2018, the data show that Pennsylvania personal are not available. Corporate Non-Financial Profits Up 10.4% for 2018 On March 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released preliminary profits data for 2018 Q4. For cal- endar year 2018, domestic profits of non-financial corporations

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

in 2000, and this trend is contributing to the “resurgence of the U.S. chemi- cal manufacturing sector” and general economic development. (Full Article) -April 2018 - Congressional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028 The CBO updated its deficit projections from the previous release in June 2017 to show substantial

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

that the virus contributed roughly $200 million to the monthly shortfall: (1) $50 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $90 million in processing delays (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year) and (3) $60 million that of the shortfall attributable to the virus. The IFO estimates that roughly $30 million is permanently lost due to reduced economic activity (withholding and quarterly payments), $30 million is tied to processing delays that will reverse this fiscal year and $60

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

Due to the passage of a partial-year budget, the IFO will delay the release of its regular five-year economic and budget outlook in mid-November. In its place, the office will release an updated economic and revenue forecast for FY 2020-21 at the end of October. Monthly Revenue Update September 2020 FY 2020-21

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MRU-2020-06.pdf

billion (-9.1 percent) below estimate. The shortfall roughly consists of: (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates collections were below estimate by $26.2 million and $16.8 million, respectively. The RTT shortfall is attributed to reduced economic activity and the INH shortfall is the result of delayed payment due dates related to the closure of county courthouses

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MRU-2020-05.pdf

virus. The shortfall is entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $430 million in lost revenue from reduced economic activity, (2) $15 million in processing delays or delayed due dates (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year) and tax collections were below estimate (-$19.1 million and -$34.2 million, respectively). The RTT shortfall is related to reduced economic activity and the INH shortfall is attributed to the closure of county courthouses. The INH shortfall is expected to be

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mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf

fiscal year.” Knittel said. “For next year, revenues are projected to follow a low-growth pattern. Revenue increases from modest economic growth largely are offset by the absence of one- time measures used to boost collections in FY 2016-17.” The is $716 million lower than the official estimate certified by the governor in July. A presentation discussing the IFO’s economic forecast and the revisions to the revenue estimate is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-

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mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf

collections.” Knittel cautioned that reductions in the estimates for other revenue sources offset some of the gains from the improved economic outlook. The table below contains an overview of the revisions to the IFO’s revenue estimate. Revisions to the IFO franchise taxes. ------ Subtotal – Decreases -270 ==== Net Revision 250 Revised estimate is $30.207 billion. The IFO’s presentation discussing the economic forecast and the revisions to the revenue estimate is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

to criminal justice cost savings. Additionally, recreational marijuana represents a new retail industry, which can lead to job creation and economic growth. I hope you find the information useful. Per office policy, we will plan to post this response to our marijuana/health-effects.html Hansen, Benjamin, Keaton Miller and Caroline Weber. “Early Evidence on Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Traffic Fatalities.” Economic Inquiry 58, no. 2 (2018): 547-568. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12751 Impacts of Marijuana Legalization in Colorado

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

percentage points lower than the employer contribution rate used to estimate the state share of PSERS employer contributions in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, which was issued by the Independent Fiscal Office on November 16 the computation remain unchanged. The following table displays an update to Table 5.6, which was originally published in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23 on November 16, 2017 (see page 49). The table shows total

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf

ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be

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2002_drop_report.pdf

Retired Legislator Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43 Allegheny County Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office the 5 plan, the best available estimate of future occurrences in the case of each 6 assumption. With respect to economic actuarial assumptions, the assumptions 7 shall either be within the range specified in rules and regulations issued by the 8

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Economic Calendar

IFO - Economic Calendar IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Economic Calendar IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Apr 09) The Independent Fiscal Office responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senat… • (Apr 01) The Commonwealth collected $4.84 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $407.9 million compared… • (Mar 31) Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coali… Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0 msapplication-TileColor: #ffffff msapplication-config: /Resources/images

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SR2017-06.pdf

assessed value share is weighted by 2015 county real estate tax collections as reported by the Department of Community and Economic Development. 2 Totals are not supplied because they would not be meaningful due to the differences in assessed values between

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

Fire Safety 50 Auditor General Fire Insurance 68,521 Municipal Pension 301,730 Banking and Securities Banking 28,346 Community & Economic Development Ben Franklin Technology Development 25,034 Local Government Capital Project Loan 1,100 Machinery and Equipment Loan 48,600

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

The Penn Wharton Budget Model Kent Smetters \ November, 15 2018 Overview Penn Wharton Budget Model 2 1) Use cutting-edge economic modeling, data science and cloud computing to provide policymakers and support staff with a transparent platform that projects the impact

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Senate_Maj_Policy_Comm_April_13_2021.pdf

Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Pennsylvania Leisure and Hospitality Sector Senate Majority Policy Committee April 13, 2021 Year-Over-Year

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

DOR prior to publication of its projections, but a comparison of forecasts suggests that the IFO forecast reflects stronger current economic activity (i.e., sales and use tax and withholding) as well as activity attributable to tax year 2020 (i.e

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf

for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). Rebate Number Amount 1 Base ($175

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf

for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). Rebate ($1,500 Supplemental) Number Amount

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

40 41 39 38 37 37 35 36 37 -2.5% -2.0% -0.5% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/) Demographics by State 1990-2012

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

5% 5.0% 5.5% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note: Percentages refer to the share of state GDP. Source: Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, IFO (November 2017). March 8, 2018 Pension Update Act 5 Impacts

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

income transfer to low-wage workers.  Most from higher prices. Smaller amount from reduced profits. Three factors drive higher economic output.  Low-wage earners more likely to spend all income.  Income transfer is funneled to PA resident labor

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

the PA labor force (3)  FY 2019-20: a difficult budget year ahead (5) All material from IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2018). November 19, 2018 2 PA Population Snapshots November 19, 2018 3 Number (000s) Change (000s

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

agency’s control (e.g., activities and outputs) versus those that are outside an agency’s control (e.g., social-economic issues, weather) that impact high-level outcomes. 14 October 15, 2018 Implications for FY 2019-20  PBB plan limitations

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

New Jersey and New York) paid more in taxes to the federal government than received in expenditures. Spotted Lanternfly Causes Economic Damage Across the State A study by the College of Agricultural Sciences at Penn State University finds that the invasive

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

9% in 2018, accelerating from a 3.6% increase in 2017. The data, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 3, reported national personal consumption expenditure growth of 5.1% in 2018, with the strongest growth in

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

PA Real Gross Domestic Product Expanded by 2.8% in 2018 Q3 On February 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q3. The data show that Pennsylvania real GDP expanded at a 2.8%

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The article explores the epi- demic’s impact on labor force participation rates and economic costs. It finds that the total per capita cost of the opioid epidemic for Pennsylvanians was $1,945 in 2015

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

growth if energy is excluded. Personal Income Growth Moderates in 2019 Q1 On June 25, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state personal income data for 2019 Q1. Compared to the prior year, data show that Pennsylvania personal income

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

Corporation Profits Grew by 5.5% in First Half of CY 2018 On September 27, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released updated figures for non-financial (excludes banks) domestic profits of U.S. corporations. The preliminary data show that

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

was 1.8%. PA Real Gross Domestic Product Surges in 2018 Q2 On November 15, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary state real Gross Domestic Product data for 2018 Q2. On a quarterly annualized basis, the Pennsylvania economy

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

and salaries. U.S. Corporate Profits Increase 4.3% in 2018 Q1 On May 30, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary data for U.S. corporate profits for the first quarter of 2018. (See Table 1.12 from

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

recent months. U.S. Corporate Profits Record Strong Growth in 2018 Q3 On November 28, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary data for third quarter U.S. corporate profits. (Table 6.16d in the link.) On a year-

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

likely bolstered by pent-up demand from COVID-19 business closures earlier this year and the continued effect of federal economic impact payments and enhanced unemployment compensation benefits. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for July were $2.31 billion, an increase

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates are based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on January 21, 2021, which includes adjustments to reflect the

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity

Hits: 1

MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in their evaluation of policy decisions. In that capacity

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

proposed statutory changes identified in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate, which includes a discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

state's minimum wage. Projections use a 2.0% growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Source: The Economic Policy Institute. Minimum Wage Tracker (published January 7, 2021). Independent Fiscal Office 22 February 2021 PA Worker Distribution by Hourly

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

9 3.1 4.2 10.1 Banking & Securities 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.0 7.2 Community & Economic Development 1.0 2.2 3.5 4.8 11.6 Conservation & Natural Resources 3.2 6.8 10.9

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

municipal. Based on property tax collection data reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), the IFO estimates that 70 percent of total property tax is levied by school districts and 30 percent

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Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf

Street. The session is open to the public. After the briefing, a report discussing the revenue projections and Pennsylvania’s economic outlook will be available on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document will describe

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

year, under plausible assumptions. - Invested assets from Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. - Taxes from Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.3. - Taxes and assets are in fiscal year 2016 dollars, adjusted using GDP price index. - Risk

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2020 PBB Agenda.pdf

Manager Carol Kilko, Deputy Secretary of Business Financing 11:00 am – 12:00 pm Review of Department of Community and Economic Development Plan Dennis Davin, Secretary, DCED Kevin Rowland, Director of Financial Management Center 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm Lunch

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

Consulting Actuary Vice Chairman Mr. A. Carville Foster Retired Legislator Dr. J. Richard Aronson William L. Clayton Professor of Business & Economics Lehigh University Mr. William A. Murray Executive Vice President The Packard Press Legislative Appointees Senator Jay Costa, Jr. District 43

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