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July 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.99 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $110 million compared to July 2023. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
February 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.77 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $31.1 million (1.1%) compared to February 2023 (adjusted). Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised monthly General Fund revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 based on projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023 (includes adjustments released with the original monthly estimates in August 2023) adjusted to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in December 2023. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
December 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.70 billion in General Fund revenues for December, a decrease of $342.2 million (-8.5%) compared to December 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
November 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.06 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $107.9 million (3.7%) compared to November 2022 (adjusted). Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
October 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.25 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $121.4 million (3.9%) compared to October 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
September 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.06 billion in General Fund revenues for September, a decrease of $161.3 million (-3.8%) compared to September 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
August 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.90 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $34.5 million (1.2%) compared to August 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023. Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eleven budget cycles. Tags: estimate, performance, revenue
July 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.88 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $185.3 million compared to July 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
June 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $44.92 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2022-23, a decrease of $3.22 billion (-6.7%) compared to the prior fiscal year. The decline is due to a one-time transfer of $3.84 billion in FY 2021-22 and a new SUT transfer. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2023-24 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. Updated estimates for FY 2022-23 are included. Methodology Tags: estimates, revenue
May 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.29 billion in General Fund Revenues for May, an increase of $61.1 million (1.9%) compared to May 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2023-24 The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. Tags: estimates, revenue
Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Wednesday, May 24th at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2022-23 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2023-24. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. Tags: estimates, initial, revenue
April 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $5.66 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $863.0 million (-13.2%) compared to April 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
March 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $6.19 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $633.3 million (11.4%) compared to March 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
February 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.83 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $393.5 million (16.2%) compared to February 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
January 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.57 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $23.7 million (-0.7%) compared to January 2022. Due to a processing delay on the last day of the month, roughly $94 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in January will be shifted to February. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Mid-Year Update FY 2022-23 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. Tags: estimates, mid, revenue, year
December 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.04 billion in General Fund revenue for December, an increase of $195.9 million (5.1%) compared to December 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the shift of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
NOVEMBER 2022 REVENUE UPDATE The Commonwealth collected $2.75 billion in General Fund revenue for November, a decrease of $3.87 billion (-58.4%) compared to November 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the delay of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
October 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.12 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $310.8 million (11.0%) compared to October 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
REVENUE ESTIMATE PERFORMANCE This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past ten budget cycles. Tags: estimates, performance, revenues
September 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.22 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $214.8 million (5.4%) compared to September 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
August 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.86 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $290.7 million (11.3%) compared to August 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue
July 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $4.0 million (-0.1%) compared to July 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
June 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $48.13 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2021-22, an increase of $7.74 billion (19.2%) compared to the prior fiscal year. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2022-23 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Updated estimates for FY 2021-22 are included. Methodology Tags: estimates, revenue
May 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.23 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $716.2 million (-18.1%) compared to May 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2022-23 The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. Tags: estimates, revenue
Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Monday, May 23rd at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2021-22 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2022-23. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. Tags: estimates, initial, revenue
April 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $6.52 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $2.56 billion (64.5%) compared to April 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
March 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $5.56 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $714.3 million (14.8%) compared to March 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Economic and Budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30. Tags: budget, demographics, economic, estimates, presentation
February 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.43 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decrease of $249.5 million (-9.3%) compared to February 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
January 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.59 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $931.08 million (35.0%) compared to January 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Mid-Year Update FY 2021-22 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in mid May. Tags: estimates, revenue
December 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.85 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $162.3 million (4.4%) compared to December 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
October 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.81 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $221.7 million (8.6%) compared to October 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
SEPTEMBER 2021 REVENUE UPDATE The Commonwealth collected $4.00 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $741.3 million (22.7%) compared to September 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past nine budget cycles. Tags: estimates, performance, revenue
August 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.57 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $25.9 million (1.0%) compared to August 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget. Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue
July 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $1.40 billion (-34.2%) compared to July 2020. July 2020 collections included roughly $1.62 billion in revenue that was shifted from FY 2019-20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July 2021 revenues exceeded the prior year by $216.2 million (8.7%). Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
June 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $40.39 billion in General Fund revenues for FY 2020-21, an increase of $8.12 billion (25.1%) from the prior fiscal year. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
May 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.95 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $1.84 billion (87.5%) compared to May 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. Tags: estimates, revenue
Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Wednesday, May 26th at 1:00PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2020-21 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2021-22. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. Tags: estimates, initial, revenue
April 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.96 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $1.78 billion (81.7%) compared to April 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
March 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.84 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $407.9 million (9.2%) compared to March 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
February 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.68 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $516.3 million (23.8%) compared to February 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Economic and Budget Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. Tags: budget, demographic, economic, estimates, presentation, property
January 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.66 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $412.6 million (-13.4%) compared to January 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
January 2021 Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. Tags: estimates, presentation, revenue
December 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.68 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $774.3 million (26.6%) compared to December 2019. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
November 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $18.3 million (-0.8%) compared to November 2019. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
October 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.59 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $77.5 million (2.9%) compared to October 2019. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
September 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.26 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $76.7 million (2.4%) compared to September 2019. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eight budget cycles. Tags: estimates, performance, revenue
August 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget. Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue
July 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
June 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation. Presentation Methodology Tags: estimates, revenue
May 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 The initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20 are included. Tags: estimates, revenue
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Presentation Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20. Tags: estimates, presentation, revenue
IFO Public Briefing: Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. Tags: estimates, presentation, revenue
April 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” Tags: estimates, revenue
Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19 The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy. Tags: estimates, revenue
March 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
February 2020 The Commonwealth collected $2.17 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $125.9 million compared to February 2019. Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue
JANUARY 2020 The Commonwealth collected $3.07 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $186.0 million compared to January 2019. Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the FY 2025-26 Governor's Executive Budget released February 2025. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 03/04/2025
Executive Budget Revenue Proposals This brief provides a summary of estimates for revenue proposals included in the FY 2025-26 Executive Budget, and a comparison to the estimates from that document. For a more detailed explanation of the data and methodologies used for estimates, see the Analysis of Revenue Proposals released concurrently with this brief. This document was reposted on March 6 to address a formatting issue. All figures are unchanged from the original posting. 03/04/2025
Mid-Year Revenue Update FY 2024-25 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year revenue update for fiscal year 2024-25 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. Video Presentation 01/28/2025
General Fund Pension Impact Methodology The IFO will begin to project a five-year General Fund cost estimate as part of its pension analysis. This document uses proposed legislation from the 2023-2024 legislative session to detail the methodology used for those projections. 01/02/2025
2024 Impact Fee estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2024 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2025). Collections are estimated to be $164 million, a decrease of $16 million from the prior year. 12/09/2024
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2024-25 projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2024 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2024-25 state budget. 08/23/2024
2022 Property Tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens on homeowners and renters across the state for 2022. The brief was updated on September 6, 2024 to address a technical correction. 08/21/2024
General Fund Surplus Likely Depleted Next Year This research brief uses the recently passed state budget for FY 24-25 to update deficit estimates for the current and subsequent fiscal year. 07/18/2024
Revenue estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past twelve budget cycles. For FY 2023-24, actual collections exceeded IFO projections by 0.6%, or $273 million. 07/09/2024
June 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $45.47 billion in General Fund revenues for FY 2023-24, which was within 0.6% ($273 million) of the IFO official revenue estimate. 07/01/2024
Official Revenue estimate FY 2024-25 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2024-25. Updated estimates for FY 2023-24 are included. Methodology 06/20/2024
2024 Wage Contracts Summary Table This table provides an up-to-date summary of the recent wage contracts analyzed by the IFO. Additional estimates will be provided after the relevant contract detail has been transmitted to the IFO by the Office of Administration. 05/21/2024
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2024-25 The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2024-25. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 05/20/2024
Initial Revenue estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue estimate on Monday, May 20th at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2023-24 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2024-25. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 05/13/2024
Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues - Update Treasury collections have generated a short-term revenue windfall. This research brief updates a prior analysis and provides preliminary Treasury revenue estimates for FY 2024-25. 05/02/2024
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget released February 2024. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 03/28/2024
Mid-Year Update FY 2023-24 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. 01/30/2024
Revised Monthly Revenue estimates This report provides revised monthly General Fund revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 based on projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023 (includes adjustments released with the original monthly estimates in August 2023) adjusted to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in December 2023. 01/29/2024
Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly Wages This research brief examines how a higher statutory minimum wage could impact lower-wage workers and provides employment and hourly wage estimates for certain lower-wage occupations to illustrate that Pennsylvania effective labor market minimum wage is likely in the range of $10.50 to $11.00 per hour. 01/24/2024
2023 Impact Fee estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2023 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2024). Collections are estimated to be $174.0 million, a decrease of $104.8 million from the prior year. 12/13/2023
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023. 08/30/2023
Property Tax Burden By County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2021. 08/22/2023
Budget Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers. 08/14/2023
Revenue estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eleven budget cycles. 08/10/2023
Property Tax/Rent Rebate Expansion This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, the American Community Survey and Social Security Administration to estimate the impact of the recently enacted expansion of the PTRR program. It provides detail on impact by income level, claimant type and county. 08/09/2023
School District Property Tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2027-28, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 06/28/2023
Official Revenue estimate FY 2023-24 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. Updated estimates for FY 2022-23 are included. Methodology 06/20/2023
Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends As part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million. 06/12/2023
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2023-24 The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 05/24/2023
Initial Revenue estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue estimate on Wednesday, May 24th at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2022-23 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2023-24. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 05/17/2023
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2023-24 Executive Budget released March 2023. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 05/03/2023
Expiration of the Enhanced FMAP The IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after. The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout. 04/06/2023
Mid-Year Update FY 2022-23 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. 01/31/2023
Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/02/2022
2022 Impact Fee estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2022 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2023). Collections are estimated to be $274.8 million, an increase of $40.4 million from the prior year. 10/31/2022
REVENUE estimate PERFORMANCE This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past ten budget cycles. 10/12/2022
Property Tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 09/06/2022
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. 09/01/2022
Student Loan Debt Forgiveness The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. 08/31/2022
School District Property Tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 08/15/2022
Official Revenue estimate FY 2022-23 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Updated estimates for FY 2021-22 are included. Methodology 06/23/2022
Pennsylvania's Gasoline Tax The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285. 06/13/2022
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2022-23 The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 05/23/2022
Property Tax Replacement estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. 05/19/2022
Initial Revenue estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue estimate on Monday, May 23rd at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2021-22 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2022-23. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 05/16/2022
Property Tax Replacement estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides updated estimates for potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated. 04/15/2022
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2022-23 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/08/2022
Assumptions Used by RGGI Model Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony on the model assumptions used by a consultant to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania from joining RGGI. This written testimony was updated on November 4, 2022, to include clarifications for the third and sixth bullets on page 1. 03/28/2022
Senate Budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to two questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to an update of the IFO’s five-year projections for revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget and an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors. 03/21/2022
Corporate Net Income Tax Proposals The IFO responded to a request from Appropriations Committee Chairman Saylor for a dynamic revenue estimate of three corporate net income tax proposals. 03/15/2022
Act 25 of 2011 Analysis In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates the potential reduction in property taxes due to Act 25 of 2011. 02/16/2022
COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths This research updates a prior release (September 2021) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. The analysis finds 19,800 excess deaths in 2020 and estimates 18,900 excess deaths for 2021. 02/11/2022
Mid-Year Update FY 2021-22 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in mid May. 01/31/2022
2021 Impact Fee estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2021 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2022). Collections are estimated to be $233.8 million, an increase of $87.6 million from the prior year. 01/18/2022
Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/04/2021
2019 Wage Contracts Summary Table This table provides an up-to-date summary of the recent wage contracts analyzed by the IFO. Additional estimates will be provided after the relevant contract detail has been transmitted to the IFO by the Office of Administration. 09/27/2021
Revenue estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past nine budget cycles. 09/16/2021
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget. 08/31/2021
Property Tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 08/25/2021
Official Revenue estimate FY 2021-22 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. Updated estimates for FY 2020-21 are included. Methodology 06/22/2021
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2021-22 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 05/26/2021
Initial Revenue estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue estimate on Wednesday, May 26th at 1:00PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2020-21 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2021-22. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 05/19/2021
Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. 05/10/2021
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2021-22 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/22/2021
House Budget Hearing Request The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question was related to the indirect costs associated with state marijuana legalization that may not be reflected in official revenue estimates. 03/23/2021
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.) 02/24/2021
Revised Monthly Revenue estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. 02/23/2021
January 2021 Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 01/11/2021
2020 Impact Fee estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2020 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2021). Collections are estimated to be $144.9 million, a decrease of $55.9 million from the prior year. 01/05/2021
Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately. 10/13/2020
Revenue estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eight budget cycles. 09/03/2020
August 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 09/01/2020
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget. 08/27/2020
July 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 08/03/2020
Official Revenue estimate FY 2020-21 This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation. Presentation Methodology 06/22/2020
May 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. 06/01/2020
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2020-21 The initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20 are included. 05/26/2020
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2020-21 Presentation Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20. 05/26/2020
IFO Public Briefing: Initial Revenue estimate FY 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 05/19/2020
April 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates. 05/01/2020
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/23/2020
March 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million. 04/01/2020
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25. 02/06/2020
Mid-Year Update FY 2019-20 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. The revised estimate is $35.738 billion, which is $220 million higher than the IFO’s official estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2020-21, revenues are projected to be $37.117 billion, an increase of 3.9 percent over the current year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May. 01/28/2020
2019 Impact Fee estimate This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2019 Impact Fee collections. Collections are estimated to be $198.2 million, a decrease of $53.6 million from the prior year. 01/09/2020
Minimum Wage Increase estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that expands upon a prior analysis on the impact of a proposed minimum wage increase. 10/10/2019
Property Tax Replacement estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code affecting personal income and sales and use taxes. 10/04/2019
School District Property Tax Elimination In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates potential replacement revenues for school district property taxes described in House Bill 13. 10/03/2019
Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017 This research brief uses state personal income tax data to estimate natural gas royalties paid to landowners in 2017. The data suggest that royalties paid increased significantly from the prior year due to increased production and higher prices. 09/20/2019
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. 08/08/2019
Revenue estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past seven budget cycles. 07/26/2019
Official Revenue estimate FY 2019-20 This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and official estimates for FY 2019-20 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation. Methodology 06/21/2019
Property Tax Replacement estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO has posted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code that affect personal income, sales and property taxes. 05/23/2019
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2019-20 The initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19 are included. For the PowerPoint presentation, click on the hyperlink above. 05/20/2019
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2019-20 Presentation Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19. 05/20/2019
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 03/22/2019
SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24. 03/18/2019
Economic & Budget Outlook Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 03/01/2019
Mid-Year Update FY 2018-19 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. The revised estimate is $34.272 billion, which is $373 million higher than the IFO’s offical estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2019-20, revenues are projected to be $35.272 billion, an increase of 2.9 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May. 01/29/2019
2018 IMPACT FEE estimate - JANUARY 2019 This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2018 Impact Fee collections. 01/24/2019
MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY REVENUE estimateS This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 07/30/2018
Revenue estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past six budget cycles. 07/25/2018
Official Revenue estimate FY 2018-19 The official revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Methodology 06/18/2018
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2018-19 The initial revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Press Release Presentation 05/01/2018
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/18/2018
Fiscal Impact of School Property Tax Rebates In response to a legislative request, the IFO estimated the fiscal impact of a school property tax rebate for all homesteads. The rebate would be equal to the statewide average school property tax paid by homesteads. The response includes both baseline estimates for currently eligible homesteads and estimates for a behavioral effect based on the filing of additional homestead applications in response to the availability of rebates. 03/13/2018
IFO Update on Selected Fiscal Topics and Pennsylvania Demographics Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) Pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017. 03/09/2018
Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/29/2018
2017 Impact Fee estimate - January 2018 This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2017 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. Revised for technical factor on 2/22/2018. 01/19/2018
School District Property Tax Forecast This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property. Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23. 01/18/2018
Revenue estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past five budget cycles. 12/22/2017
Updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget. 12/21/2017
School Property Taxes; Households Age 60, 65 and 70 or Older In response to a legislative request, the IFO analyzed data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate the share of school property taxes paid by households in which the householder (or spouse, if applicable) had attained the ages 60 or over, 65 or over and 70 or over. The analysis applies the shares derived from the ACS to estimated school district property tax collections attributable to homestead properties for FY 2015-16 to further estimate the dollar amounts paid by such households. 12/11/2017
County Homestead Detail As an extension of its recent research relating to property taxes, the IFO has released additional data regarding homestead property. estimates for the numbers and assessed values of homestead properties by county are based, in large part, on the results of a survey of county assessment offices. The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania provided valuable assistance by coordinating the survey. Data for Philadelphia has been adjusted based on new information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. 12/06/2017
Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q3 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. 11/03/2017
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget. 08/10/2017
Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q2 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. 08/02/2017
Official Revenue estimate FY 2017-18 FY 2017-18 official estimate and FY 2016-17 estimate revision (June 2017). Methodology 06/15/2017
Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q1 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. 05/05/2017
Initial Revenue estimate FY 2017-18 The initial revenue estimate for FY 2017-18 and updated estimates for FY 2016-17. Press Release Presentation 05/02/2017
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017) 04/05/2017
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 02/10/2017
Mid-Year Update FY2016-17 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than the IFO’s November 2016 estimate and $450 million lower than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017-18, revenues are projected to be $32.637 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/25/2017
Quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q4 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. 01/24/2017
Updated School District Property Tax Forecast Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast. 01/09/2017
2016 Impact Fee estimate - January 2017 This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2016 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. 01/02/2017
Quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q3 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. Fiscal Year 2016-17 2016 Q3 (July to September 2016) 10/27/2016
Quarterly Revenue estimates This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. 08/24/2016
Revenue estimate Performance Examination of the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past four budget cycles (August 2016). 08/12/2016
FY 2016-17 Official Revenue estimate FY 2016-17 official estimate and FY 2015-16 estimate revision (June 2016). General Fund Snapshot Press Release Methodology 06/15/2016
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/21/2016
Property Tax Rebate estimate Letter providing estimates for a potential proposal to give homestead owners school property tax rebates equal to the statewide average school property tax paid (March 2015). 03/11/2015
Impact Fee Update - February 2015 This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 02/27/2015
estimate of property taxes paid by Lancaster County homeowners aged 70 and over Letter containing an estimate of property taxes paid by Lancaster County homeowners aged 70 and over (June 2013). 06/24/2013
Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 through CY 2024 estimates toll revenues collected by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission (PTC) through calendar year 2024. The scope of this analysis is limited to forecasting toll revenues; it does not address other revenues remitted to the PTC nor does it address the general fiscal condition of the PTC. 05/28/2013
An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania estimates the fiscal and economic impact of expanding Medicaid (Medical Assistance) under the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). The scope of the analysis is limited to the impact of Medicaid expansion; it does not address the costs, savings or economic effects of the ACA generally. 04/22/2013
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf flow basis and $1.4 billion on a present value basis. See page 11 for details. Risk Transfer Two simulations estimate the amount of investment risk transferred under the pro- posal. An “all employee” simulation demonstrates that the risk transfer grows as employ- ees under the new plan design comprise a greater share of the workforce. A “new employee” simula- tion estimates risk reduction of 53 percent for PSERS and 58 percent for SERS under the new plans. For a 100 basis Hits: 123
index.cfm Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Energy Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. ... (Full Report) Mid-Year Revenue Update FY 2024-25 Revenue Estimates January 28, 2025 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year revenue update for fiscal year 2024-25 and Hits: 123
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the relevant sections of this document. The IFO would like to thank the various agencies and organizations Hits: 111
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the Hits: 109
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue Hits: 99
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides Hits: 98
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf June 22, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 and FY 2021-22, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 26 Hits: 89
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf May 26, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 and FY 2021-22. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate Hits: 88
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf OFFICE May 24, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and FY 2023-24. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate Hits: 86
QRR_2015Q2.pdf 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published Hits: 86
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact three policy options noted above. The report only considers the direct economic implications and does not attempt to estimate the monetary value of exter- nalities such as reduced pollution. The report does not include a review of environmental and other impacts Hits: 85
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf OFFICE June 20, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and FY 2023-24, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 24 Hits: 85
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf OFFICE May 23, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and FY 2022-23. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate Hits: 79
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf OFFICE June 23, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and FY 2022-23, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 23 Hits: 78
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue Hits: 78
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 21, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Section 1704-E (b) of The Fiscal Code. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 Hits: 74
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf OFFICE June 20, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 and FY 2024-25, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 20 Hits: 73
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf OFFICE May 20, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 and FY 2024-25. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate Hits: 72
QRR_2015Q1.pdf 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published Hits: 71
QRR_2014Q4.pdf 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published Hits: 69
QRR_2013Q4.pdf 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published Hits: 66
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue Hits: 66
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its official revenue estimate in accord- ance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides Hits: 65
QRR_2014Q2.pdf 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published Hits: 64
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2022. That time period covers ten Hits: 63
QRR_2016Q1.pdf Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of Hits: 61
QRR_2015Q4.pdf Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of Hits: 60
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2021. That time period covers nine Hits: 58
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) from fiscal year (FY) 2012-13 through FY 2022-23. For this document Hits: 52
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its Hits: 48
QRR_2017Q2.pdf REVIEW APRIL TO JUNE Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Hits: 48
QRR_2015Q3.pdf Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publications detailing the annual and quarterly revenue estimates are available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of Hits: 47
Demographics_Outlook_2024.pdf Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from the vintage 2020 and 2023 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Various other Census products, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and of July 2023 and the forecast is constructed using age group data from the U.S. Census Vintage 2023 Population Estimates. 1 From the base year, the IFO projects birth, death and net migration rates for Pennsylvania residents. 2 The impacts Hits: 47
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This analysis uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the Hits: 44
QRR_2013Q3.pdf 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published Hits: 44
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 page intentionally left blank. - Independent Fiscal Office \| Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2017. That time period covers five complete budget Hits: 43
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issues this report as an update to its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report in Novem- ber. However, due Hits: 43
QRR_2017Q3.pdf 2), and quarterly breakdowns for the Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund (page 4). The most recent publication detailing these estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its revenue estimates with actual revenue collec- tions. The report also provides context for the vari- ances between estimates and actual collections. For Hits: 42
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2019-20. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments Hits: 42
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its Hits: 39
QRR_2017Q1.pdf REVIEW JANUARY TO MARCH Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve‐ nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec‐ tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Hits: 39
QRR_2016Q3.pdf General Fund (page 2), Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund (page 4). The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page Hits: 39
Kling_Presentation.pdf Enhance the credibility of its work  Promote a thorough understanding of its analyses  Help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances were different CBO’s Goals in Being Transparent 2 CBO How CBO Fosters Transparency to questions from Members of Congress  Explaining its analytical methods  Releasing data  Analyzing the accuracy of its estimates  Comparing its current estimates with its previous ones  Comparing its estimates with those of others  Estimating the Hits: 39
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the Hits: 38
QRR_2016Q4.pdf REVIEW OCTOBER TO DECEMBER Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the Hits: 38
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf from IHS Markit, Wells Fargo and PNC. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2021 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Historical revenue near-term projections) and 2025 to 2030 (long-term projections). While near-term projections should be similar to actual population estimates, long-term pro- jections are less certain because birth, death and migration rates can vary significantly due to changing economic Hits: 37
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf Revenues For the mid‐year revenue update released in January, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) increased its General Fund revenue estimate for FY 2015‐16 by $200 million, and the revised amount is $50 million higher than the corresponding amount in the FY 2016‐17 Executive Budget. Three factors motivate the upward revision to revenues:  Very strong growth in PIT estimated payments. Through the first seven months of the fiscal year, these payments are up 17.0 percent over the prior Hits: 37
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 page intentionally left blank. - Independent Fiscal Office \| Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through May 2018. That time period covers six complete budget Hits: 36
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute creating the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required to Hits: 36
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdf pa.us \| www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance \| Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) from fiscal year (FY) 2012-13 through FY 2023-24. For this document Hits: 35
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf S. are from S&P Global. Demographic projec- tions are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2022 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Historical revenue this outlook is $425 million lower. That compar- ison uses the financial statement from the Office of the Budget with estimated spending reductions from the October 2023 Fall Update (-$450 million) and incorporates a projected transfer from cigarette tax revenues (-$115 Hits: 35
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from the vin- tage 2020 and 2022 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Various other Census products, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and of July 2022 and the forecast is constructed using age group data from the U.S. Census Vintage 2022 Population Estimates. 1 From the base year, the IFO projects birth, death and net migration rates for Pennsylvania residents. 2 The impacts Hits: 35
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2023-24 . The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to Hits: 34
MRU-2020-3.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019, March collections of $4.4 billion were $331.8 million (-7.0 percent) below estimate. (See table on next page.) The IFO estimates that the virus contributed roughly $200 million to the monthly shortfall: (1) $50 million in lost revenue due to reduced Hits: 34
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2022-23 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates \| Page 1 FY 2022-23 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues Hits: 34
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf a request from the General Assembly, this document updates the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) official General Fund revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 to reflect the projected impact from COVID-19 and provide a preview of revenue estimates for FY 2020-21. The estimates represent potential outcomes based on the length of mandated business closures under two scenarios Hits: 33
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdf The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2024-25. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to Hits: 33
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2020-21. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments Hits: 31
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2022-23. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to Hits: 30
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2021-22. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and may be submitted to Hits: 30
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. His- torical revenue and expenditure projections). As explained in the September release, it is likely that near-term projections will be similar to actual population estimates. However, long-term projections are less certain because birth, death and migration rates can vary more significantly in the long Hits: 30
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the relevant sections of this document. The IFO would like to thank the various agencies and organizations Hits: 29
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from the 2020 and 2021 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Various other Census products, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and year is 2021 and the forecast is constructed using age group data from the U.S. Census Vintage 2021 Population Estimates. 1 From the base year, the IFO projects birth, death and net migration rates for Pennsylvania residents. The impacts from Hits: 29
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf and September 2019. 1 This letter uses the same data sources and methodologies used in those analyses to provide updated estimates. The updated tables are as follows. Table 1 provides the latest IFO baseline for school district property taxes. This baseline was released by the office in February 2021. Table 2 provides detail on the estimated costs of major programs that provide services to Pennsylvania seniors from FY 2018-19 to FY 2020-21. The major Hits: 28
MQRE_FY24-25_08_2024.pdf Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2024-25 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates \| Page 1 FY 2024-25 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense Fund (MLF) and Lottery Hits: 28
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2018-19 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2019-20 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school property taxes for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20, as well as projections for FY 2020-21 Hits: 27
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates \| Page 1 FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Hits: 27
Five_Year_Outlook_2024.pdf Global. Demographic projections in this report are from the IFO based on data from the vintage 2020 and 2023 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Various other Census products, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and 8 -0.3 -0.5 Note: Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. Source: The 2015 data are estimates by the IFO based on the U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2020 and 2023 Population Estimates. The 2020 data are Hits: 27
2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Initial Revenue Estimate Fiscal Year 2024-25 May 20, 2024 Today’s Presentation Presentation runs ~20 minutes • Posted to IFO website at end address them at end If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible Slide 2 Initial Revenue Estimate Economic and Revenue performance as expected, unusual revenue sources provide gains PA Economic Forecast Slide 3 Initial Revenue Estimate Latest Hits: 27
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf billion. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2020-21 in late Spring 2022. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2021-22 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 Index projection. Forecast Overview Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school district property taxes for FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22, as well as projections for FY 2022- Hits: 26
MTR-2018-06.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For June, General Fund collections were $154 million (-4.7 percent) below estimate due to the lack of a funds transfer ($200 million) from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA). The Hits: 26
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute that created the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required Hits: 26
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf Fiscal Office February 7, 2014 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 IFO Reports and Analyses 2 Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 Consumer Debt 7 General or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental organizations that Hits: 26
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2019-20 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2020-21 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Forecast Overview Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school district property taxes for FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21, as well as projections for FY 2021- Hits: 26
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the relevant sections of this document. The IFO would like to thank the various agencies and organizations Hits: 25
MTR-2019-01.pdf monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $99.1 million (-3.3%) below estimate for January and $320.6 million (1.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Sales and use tax (SUT) came in above estimate for the month while Hits: 25
MTR-2018-05.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For the month of May, General Fund collections were $197 million (-7.4 percent) below estimate but are roughly meeting estimate for the fiscal year. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded estimate by $50 million Hits: 25
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact IHS Markit (October 2019). Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabu- lations from the 2018 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Penn- sylvania Department of Health. Historical revenue and expenditure data are Hits: 25
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf Committee prepared by the Independent Fiscal Office February 8, 2013 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental organizations that Hits: 25
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute that created the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required Hits: 24
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2020 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau with adjustments to incorporate the 2020 De- cennial Census count, various other Census products Bureau. The base year forecast is 2020 and is constructed using data from the U.S. Census Vintage 2020 Population Estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census. The differences in these data sets are outlined below. ▪ The Vintage 2020 Population Estimates are Hits: 24
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf verified list of corporate targets, which must be considered. The speculative nature of divestment and replacement investment precludes precise actuarial estimates. The State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) project a general 0.5% reduction The ISS list includes the names of more than 400 companies, many of them prominent Pennsylvania employers, that in the estimation of ISS, would meet the criteria of being “engaged in business with a state sponsor of terror” and would have Hits: 24
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf of those plans and reviews. The IFO also prepares monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinates analyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and Spot Prices ........................................................................... 15 Natural Gas Spot Prices ............................................................................................................ 16 Natural Gas: U.S. and PA Consumption .............................................................................. 17 2018 Impact Fee Estimate ...................................................................................................... 18 Pension Systems Data ............................................................................................................... 20 Employer Contribution Rates for PSERS and SERS ...................................................... 21 Funded Ratios for PSERS and SERS .................................................................................... 22 Hits: 23
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2020 Popula- tion Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Historical revenue and expenditure data States. Figure 2.2 displays this ra- tio for Pennsylvania (blue) and the United States (light blue) for 2010, 2020 (estimated) and 2030 (pro- jected). In 2010, there were 3.9 working-age residents per retiree in Pennsylvania and 4.6 Hits: 23
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the relevant sections of this document. The IFO would like to thank the various agencies and organizations Hits: 22
MTR-2018-04.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through April, total General Fund revenues are $173 million, or 0.6 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of April, General Fund collections were $325 million (-8.0 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use Hits: 22
MRU_2023_10.pdf 24. General Fund collections for October were $3.25 billion, $116.7 million (+3.7%) above the IFO’s official estimate, driven by overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and inheritance tax, which were partially offset by shortfalls in escheats. (The IFO October estimate was $3.2 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor.) October revenues increased $121.4 million (+3.9% Hits: 22
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates \| Page 1 FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Hits: 22
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the economic impact due to the transfer of funds directly to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups are that provide support to state and local governments, hospitals, colleges, small businesses and non-profits. For those provisions, the IFO estimates the following impacts: $32.2 billion to small businesses through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP); $18.4 billion of general Hits: 21
RB-2018-01.pdf 1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2016-17 in late spring 2018. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2017 -18 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data of school property taxes. This report also incorporates recent IFO research regarding the property taxes paid by homesteads and displays estimates through FY 2022-23. Table 1 provides a summary of the IFO’s estimate of school property taxes for FY Hits: 21
MTR-2019-06.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For June, General Fund collections exceeded estimate by $50.9 million (1.7 percent) and were $958.7 million (2.8 percent) above estimate for the year. The FY overage was primarily generated by stronger than anticipated collections related to corporate net income tax Hits: 21
MTR-2018-12.pdf monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $80.8 million (2.9%) above estimate for December and $419.7 million (2.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came Hits: 21
MTR-2018-02.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through February, total General Fund revenues are $619 million, or 3.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. February General Fund collections were $158 million (4.6 percent) above estimate. The three largest sources of tax revenue (personal Hits: 21
MRU_2024_1.pdf 24. General Fund collections for January were $3.91 billion, $30.3 million (-0.8%) below the IFO’s official estimate, driven by a shortfall in personal income tax (PIT) collections and partially offset by overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and Treasury collections. The IFO estimate for January was $104.9 million higher than the administration’s recertified estimate. This month’s collections were $342.4 Hits: 21
MRU_2023_12.pdf 24. General Fund collections for December were $3.70 billion, $182.8 million (-4.7%) below the IFO’s official estimate, driven by a shortfall in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections. The IFO December estimate was $113.2 million higher than the administration’s estimate published in August. December collections were $342.2 million (-8 Hits: 21
MRU-2020-08.pdf 27, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 based on its official estimate released June 22. Compared to those estimates, General Fund collections of $2,548.4 million in August were $247.7 million (10.8 percent) higher than anticipated Hits: 21
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf Representative Ryan: Thank you for your March 2, 2022 letter that asks the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues. This analysis uses the same data sources and methodologies used to provide previous estimates. The updated tables are as follows. Table 1 provides the latest IFO baseline for school district property taxes. This baseline Hits: 21
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf small number of rural counties, it is possible to use tax data trends for those counties to derive a rough estimate of total natural gas royalties paid over time. A technical explanation of the methodology used to estimate those payments can be found at the end of this brief. The table on the next page displays estimates of Hits: 20
MTR-2017-11.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first five months of FY 2017 -18, total General Fund revenues were $203.1 million (1.8 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $58.5 million (0.5 percent) above estimate and non-tax revenues were $144.5 million (181 Hits: 20
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf 1 Expenditures ......................................................................................................... 2 Executive Budget Financial Statement ............................................................................................... 3 Expenditure Detail ................................................................................................. 4 Revenues – Fiscal Year-To-Date ............................................................................. 5 Adjustments to Official Estimate ............................................................................. 6 Executive Budget vs. IFO ....................................................................................... 7 Revenue Proposals Minimum Wage Rates by State ............................................................................... 8 Increasing Minimum Wage to $15 ........................................................................... 9 analyzes, does not make policy recommendations and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Role in the Budget Process The Hits: 20
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf 1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2017-18 in late Spring 2019. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2018-19 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides a summary of the IFO’s estimate of school property taxes for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19, as well as projections for FY 2019-20 Hits: 19
MTR-2019-04.pdf the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections exceeded estimate for April ($508.6 million) and are $890.5 million (3.1%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by unusually strong personal income tax (PIT), sales Hits: 19
MTR-2019-03.pdf the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections met estimate for March (+$2.0 million) and are $381.9 million (1.6%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and insurance premiums tax offset shortfalls Hits: 19
MTR-2018-11.pdf monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $154.1 million (7.1%) above estimate for November and $338.9 million (2.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came Hits: 19
MTR-2018-10.pdf revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $19.5 million (-0.8 percent) below estimate for October and $184.8 million (1.9 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). October shortfalls in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and non-tax collections were Hits: 19
MTR-2018-09.pdf revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $137.8 million (4.7 percent) above estimate for September and $204.3 million (2.8 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). General Fund collections for September were above estimate primarily due to overages in Hits: 19
MTR-2017-10.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first four months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $9.6 million (-0.1 percent) below the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $27.4 million (-0.3 percent) below estimate and non-tax revenues were $17.8 million (29 Hits: 19
MRU_2024_3.pdf FY) 2023-24. March General Fund collections were $6.28 billion, $298 million (+5.0%) above the IFO’s official estimate, driven by higher than expected gross receipts tax (GRT) collections. The IFO estimate for March was $8 million lower than the administration’s recertified estimate. Collections for March were $89 million (+1.4% Hits: 19
MRU_2024_04.pdf 2023-24. General Fund collections for April were $5.69 billion, $43 million (+0.8%) above the IFO’s official estimate, driven by strength in inheritance tax and escheats collections that was partially offset by weakness in personal income tax (PIT) collections. The IFO estimate for April was $331 million higher than the administration’s recertified official estimate. April collections were $30 million (+0.5% Hits: 19
MRU_2023_09.pdf 24. General Fund collections for September were $4.06 billion, $163.6 million (-3.9%) below the IFO’s official estimate, driven by shortfalls in personal income tax (PIT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and inheritance tax. (The IFO monthly estimate was $23.4 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor.) September revenues decreased $161.3 million (-3.8% Hits: 19
MRU-2022-09.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for September were $422.4 million (11.1%) above the IFO’s official estimate, and are $583.9 million (6.4%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $286.6 million lower than the estimate certified Hits: 19
MRU-2020-12.pdf 4 million (26.6 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The overage was primarily due to stronger than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections and one-time transfers under Act 114 of 2020 (not included in the IFO’s Official Estimate). Monthly CNIT collections of $760.9 million were $333.8 million (78.2 percent) over estimate due to higher than Hits: 19
MRU-2020-09.pdf million (11.9 percent) higher than the monthly projection associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The difference was attributable to sales and use tax (SUT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $739.6 million (8.1 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were $132.9 million (15.4 percent) above estimate due Hits: 19
MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdf Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I Frank Lill, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2023-24 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates \| Page 1 FY 2023-24 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues Hits: 19
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf the program and the volume of ash generated and used to reclaim land impacted by legacy coal activities. 3 The estimated annual staff time and cost to administer the CRER Tax Credit is as follows: 0.10 full-time equivalent (FTE gas production due to more efficient fracking technology. By 2021, coal refuse burned fell to 7.0 million tons (IFO estimate), and natural gas comprised 51% of power generation in the state, as proximity to the Marcellus Shale provided an abundant Hits: 18
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 1,335 47,263 488119 – Support Services 47 1,818 22,579 Data for NAIC 336412 is an estimate based on 2008 value and total for all manufacturers for 2011. Value for 2011 was not disclosed. Source: BLS, Quarterly Census of Hits: 18
REU-2020-01.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections for January fell below estimate by $18.4 million (-0.6 percent). Fiscal- year-to-date (FYTD) collections are exceeding estimate by $195.4 million (1.1 percent). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income Hits: 18
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf Security and pension disbursements. Cost of Major Programs that Provide Services to Pennsylvania Seniors Table 1 provides detail on the estimated costs of major programs that provide services to Pennsylvania seniors from FY 2017-18 to FY 2019-20. The major Aging, Revenue and Transportation and (3) funding for Veterans Homes in the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. The cost estimates are broken out by type of funding (state, federal or September 23, 2019 Page 2 lottery funds). This analysis does Hits: 18
MTR-2019-02.pdf monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $59.3 million (3.0%) above estimate for February and $379.9 million (1.9%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly surplus was largely due to higher than anticipated corporate net income Hits: 18
MTR-2018-03.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through March, total General Fund revenues are $498 million, or 2.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of March, General Fund collections were $121 million (-2.7 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use Hits: 18
MRU_2025_01.pdf 25. January General Fund collections of $3.92 billion were $13 million (-0.3%) lower than the IFO’s official estimate. (The IFO estimate for January was $38 million lower than the administration’s official estimate.) Fiscal-year-to- date (FYTD) collections total $24 Hits: 18
MRU_2024_2.pdf 2023-24. February General Fund collections were $2.77 billion, $110.0 million (+4.1%) above the IFO’s official estimate, driven by higher than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections. The IFO estimate for February was $40.5 million lower than the administration’s recertified estimate. Collections for February were $31.1 million Hits: 18
MRU_2020_11.pdf which was $90.9 million above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The monthly outcome was due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT the Property Tax Relief Fund (PTRF) under Act 114 of 2020 (which was not included in the IFO’s Official Estimate). General Fund fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed the estimate by $1.11 billion (8.0 percent). Monthly SUT Hits: 18
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf the percentage reduction in the tax rate) is offset by dynamic effects. 12 At the national level, economic models have estimated revenue offsets ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent once all dynamic effects have been reflected fully. 13 Based on rate changes, government and private entities include the behavioral impact from reduced profit shifting to foreign entities in the static estimate. 13 See “Preliminary Details and Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” Tax Foundation, Special Report No. 241 (December Hits: 18
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf Commonwealth?.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Part V–Local Government Pensions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Part VI–Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Tables•Table 1–Personal Income Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates.. . . . . . 9•Table 2–Sales Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9•Table 3–Cash Infusion Projections – Public SchoolEmployees’ Retirement System.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10•Table 4–Cash Infusion Projections – State Employees’Retirement System Hits: 18
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf certain economic assumptions. The healthcare trend assumption reflects the current best professional judgment of the Commission’s consulting actuary. -16- Estimated Costs The Commission’s consulting actuary has estimated the increase in pay-as-you-go costs if the Commonwealth-subsidized premium assistance available to the retiree were extended Hits: 18
MTR-2019-08.pdf August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. Compared to those estimates, General Fund collections of $2,192.9 million in August were $67.1 million (3.2 percent) above estimate. The overage was largely attributable to sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal-year-to- date Hits: 17
MTR-2019-05.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For May, General Fund collections exceeded estimate ($17.4 million) and are $907.8 million (2.9 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was the result of strong collections in sales and use Hits: 17
MTR-2018-1.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through January, total General Fund revenues are $462 million, or 3 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. Most of the year-to-date overage occurred in the current month. January 2018 total General Fund collections exceeded estimate Hits: 17
MRU_2024_12.pdf 25. December General Fund collections of $3.77 billion were $36 million (-1.0%) lower than the IFO’s official estimate. The shortfall is primarily due to the delayed deposit of $30 million in licenses and fees revenue that is now expected to occur in January. (The IFO estimate for December was $51 million lower than the administration’s official estimate.) Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections total $20 Hits: 17
MRU_2024_05.pdf 2023-24. General Fund collections for May were $3.36 billion, $7 million (-0.2%) below the IFO’s official estimate, driven by a shortfall in corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections that was offset by an overage in non-motor vehicle sales and use tax (SUT). The IFO estimate for May was $93 million higher than the administration’s recertified official estimate. May collections were $64 million (+2.0% Hits: 17
MRU_2021_04.pdf 277.2 million (-6.5%) lower than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly shortage was primarily due to lower than expected personal income tax (PIT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund collections are $32.68 billion, which are $274.5 million (0.8%) above estimate. Monthly PIT collections came in $746.7 million (-30.2%) below estimate, primarily due to annual payments, which were $753 Hits: 17
MRU-2022-11.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for November were $129.0 million (-4.5%) below the IFO’s official estimate, and are $731.8 million (4.9%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $72.9 million lower than the estimate certified Hits: 17
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates \| Page 1 FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Hits: 17
REU-2019-11.pdf released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of November were above estimate by $42.1 million (1.8 percent) and by $272.0 million (2.2 percent) for the fiscal year-to- collections, which were partially offset by weak SUT motor vehicle tax collections. November CNIT collections were $10.0 million over estimate (7.8 percent) due to higher than anticipated estimated payments ($8.6 million, 29.5 percent). FYTD CNIT collections are Hits: 16
MTR-2017-09.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first three months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $25.3 million (0.4 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Total tax revenues were $9.4 million (0.1 percent) above estimate and non-tax revenues were $15.8 million Hits: 16
MRU_2024_06.pdf 24. General Fund collections for June 2024 were $3.63 billion, $47 million (-1.3%) below the IFO’s official estimate. The IFO estimate for June was $84 million higher than the administration’s recertified official estimate. Collections for the fiscal year totaled $45 Hits: 16
MRU_2023_11.pdf 24. General Fund collections for November were $3.06 billion, $78.9 million (+2.6%) above the IFO ’s official estimate, driven by an overage in corporate net income tax (CNIT) which was partially offset by a shortfall in personal income tax (PIT). (The IFO November estimate was $32.5 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) November collections were $107.9 million (+3.7% Hits: 16
MRU_2023_08.pdf 24. General Fund collections for August were $2.90 billion, $8.7 million (0.3%) above the IFO’s official estimate, with overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and inheritance tax offseting shortfalls in sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). (The IFO monthly estimate was $35.8 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) August revenues increased $34.5 million (1.2% Hits: 16
MRU_2023_06.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for June were $285.3 million (8.4%) above the IFO’s official estimate. (The IFO monthly estimate was $101.6 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) Collections for the fiscal year totaled $44.92 Hits: 16
MRU_2023_05.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for May were -$84.9 million (-2.5%) below the IFO’s official estimate, and are $2.45 billion (6.3%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $38.8 million higher than the estimate certified Hits: 16
MRU_2022_12.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for December were $429.8 million (11.9%) above the IFO’s official estimate, and are $1.16 billion (6.3%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $109.9 million lower than the estimate certified Hits: 16
MRU_2022_02.pdf August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues exceeded estimate by $256.7 million (11.8%) for February and by $2.46 billion (9.4%) for the fiscal year-to- and use tax (SUT) collections. Monthly PIT collections were $1.03 billion, which was $90.3 million (9.6%) over estimate. The overage was mostly due to withholding (+$72.4 million, 8.2%) and estimated (+$16.0 million, 64.0%) payments Hits: 16
MRU_2021_08.pdf year (FY) 2021-22. For August, General Fund collections were $2.57 billion, or $71.5 million (2.9%) over estimate. The monthly overage was almost entirely due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) collections Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund collections are $5.27 billion, which are $163.1 million (3.2%) above estimate. August CNIT revenues of $106.0 million were $36.8 million (53.2%) higher than anticipated and driven by final Hits: 16
MRU-2022-06.pdf 2021-22. Collections for the entire fiscal year totaled $48.13 billion, which was $6.22 billion (14.8%) above estimate. This result was due to dramatic overages in almost every tax type, including personal income tax (PIT), corporate net income annual payments. PIT collections for the fiscal year totaled $18.13 billion and were $2.61 billion (16.8%) over estimate. Annual payments comprised more than half the fiscal year overage (+$1.51 billion, 82.5%), but withholding (+589.8 million Hits: 16
MRU-2022-01.pdf August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues surpassed estimate by $440.6 million (14.0%) for January and by $2.20 billion (9.2%) for the fiscal year-to- collections. SUT collections for the month came in at $1.26 billion and were $159.9 million (14.5%) over estimate, driven by non-motor vehicle SUT collections (+$147.4 million, 15.1%). Monthly motor vehicle SUT revenues were $12.5 Hits: 16
MRU-2020-10.pdf 2 million (11.9 percent) above the monthly projection associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The key variances are attributable to sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $1.01 billion (8.8 percent). SUT revenues for October totaled $1,089.4 million, $132.5 million (13 Hits: 16
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates \| Page 1 FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly esti- mates Hits: 16
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf Independent Fiscal Office January 2020 1 2019 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the fee in any operating year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2019, which will be remitted in April 2020. This brief also translates the impact fee Hits: 16
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf General Fund Revenue Estimate FY 2013-14 Mid-Year Update Independent Fiscal Office January 23, 2014 At the beginning of the fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) forecasted FY 2013-14 General Fund revenues of $29.154 billion. For comparison, the revenue estimate certified by the Governor and published by the Department of Revenue was $29.116 billion, a difference of $38.5 Hits: 16
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute that created the IFO specifies several dates that the office is required to Hits: 16
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf 17. Source: Tax Policy Center at http://tpc-tax-calculator.urban.org/. Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 10 Two Estimates of Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 -$168 Throughs -188.8 -168.5 One-Third Net Corporate -30.4 -29.5 Tax Cut Realized -219.2 -198.1 Estimated PA Share 3.5% 3.5% Increase PA Disposable Income 7.7 6.9 Note: Corporations use revenues from the Hits: 16
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf Representative Ryan: Thank you for your July 9 th letter that requests the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide additional estimates related to House Bill 13. The IFO provides the enclosed table in response to that request. Please note the following:  The estimates utilize the latest revenue forecast released by the IFO (June 21, 2019 and updated to reflect statutory changes that were Hits: 15
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf time transition funding $16.8 $0.0 $0.0 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Assumes October 1, 2020 implementation. The estimates are preliminary and based on discussions with the department. DHS may update the estimates as more information becomes available. On a state fiscal year basis, the additional funding for prevention services is estimated at Hits: 15
QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf IFO General Fund Revenue Estimate Comparison to Actual Revenues October 1, 2015 The Independent Fiscal Office recently published quarterly estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2015-16 General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund revenues. The office provides a detailed Hits: 15
MRU_2022_03.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund collections exceeded the March estimate (+$579.2 million, 11.6%) and are $3.04 billion (9.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by strong sales and use tax (SUT), personal Hits: 15
MRU_2021_05.pdf 1.33 billion (50.8%) higher than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was primarily due to personal income tax (PIT) annual payments. Fiscal-year-to- date (FYTD) General Fund collections are $36.62 billion, which are $1.60 billion (4.6%) above estimate. May PIT collections were $1.01 billion (111.3%) over estimate, almost entirely due to stronger than expected annual payments Hits: 15
MRU-2022-10.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for October were $276.8 million (9.7%) above the IFO’s official estimate, and are $860.7 million (7.1%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $88.0 million lower than the estimate certified Hits: 15
MRU-2022-08.pdf recently released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022 -23. General Fund collections exceeded the IFO ’s official August estimate by $103.6 million (3.8%) and are $161.5 million (3.0%) above estimate for the fiscal -year -to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $39.8 million lower than the estimate certified Hits: 15
MRU-2020-06.pdf COVID-19 virus. Fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 collections totaled $32.28 billion, $3.24 billion (-9.1 percent) below estimate. The shortfall roughly consists of: (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 various other revenue sources. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections for June were $243.8 million (-38.5 percent) below estimate. The majority of the shortfall (-$190.6 million) occurred in estimated payments and is related to the impact of the Hits: 15
MRU-2020-04.pdf impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The IFO estimates that the shortfall is almost entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $385 million in lost revenue due result of extended tax due dates. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.19 billion (-7.4 percent) below estimate through April and are 5.7 percent below collections for the same period in the prior fiscal year. Personal income Hits: 15
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf wage growth: boost to consumer confidence? FY 2014‐15 General Fund Revenues. • Performance through January. • Revisions to FY 2014‐15 estimate. • Implications for next year. Advance Look at FY 2015‐16 Revenues. 28.Jan.2015 2 Today’s Presentation 28.Jan 7 39.9 16.6 41.7 48.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014 is preliminary. 2015 estimate by IFO. Annual Job Gains and Losses (000s) 28.Jan.2015 5 PA Economic Growth Rates ‐3.0% ‐2.0% Hits: 15
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast.  General weakness. All 7% 6.4% 19.3% Note: All growth rates are year-over-year. Wage growth for 2017 Q1 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in Hits: 15
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes and General Economics ............................................................ 5 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs ...................................................................... 6 Demographics – Pennsylvania Snapshot ..................................................................... 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Decedent Trends and Excess Death Estimate ................. 8 Demographics – Net Domestic Migration Trends ......................................................... 9 Revenues – Fiscal Year to Date ................................................................................ 10 Revenues – General Fund Projections ...................................................................... 11 Impact Fee Hits: 15
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, various other Census products and data sup- plied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Other data Hits: 15
2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf took place. Distributions for this year and the past three calendar years are shown in Table 1. (2023 is an estimate.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2023, which will be remitted in April 2024. It also converts the impact fee into Hits: 15
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf natural gas extraction took place. Distributions for the last four calendar years are shown in Table 1. (2022 is an estimate.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2022, which will be remitted in April 2023. It also converts the impact fee into Hits: 15
REU-2020-02.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For February, General Fund revenues exceeded the estimate by $102.9 million (5.0 percent) and by $298.4 million (1.4 percent) for the fiscal-year- to- March due date. CNIT collections were $83.7 million for February, which was $12.9 million (18.2 percent) above estimate. The monthly performance was a product of higher than anticipated final payments ($7.3 million, 15.2 percent) and estimated Hits: 14
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook INITIAL REVENUE ESTIMATE FISCAL YEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May 1, 2018 Today’s presentation.  PA economy: growth appears to accelerate recently.  FY 17-18: hitting estimate except for JUA transfer.  FY 18-19: moderately strong tax revenue growth. Final estimate to be released June 15 Hits: 14
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12, 2018 FY 17-18: revenues are close to estimate.  Gains (PIT and SUT) offset losses (CNIT and GRT).  ~$200 million short: non-receipt of JUA transfer.  PA hub price is weighted average for the Dominion South and Leidy hubs. Impact Fee for 2017 is an IFO estimate. Sources: IFO tabulations of data submitted to the PA Department of Environmental Protection. Impact Fee revenues from PA Public Utility Hits: 14
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf 17-18 are for calendar year 2017 and so on. Taxable handle and pari-mutuel tax revenues for 2021 are estimated by the IFO based on revenues through October. --Recommended measure-- --Recommended measure-- 2 SFPP is the State Food Purchase Program of food provided by SFPP increased by 85% in FY 2020-21 and pounds provided by PASS increased by 260%. Estimates of national food insecurity rates remained stable in 2020, possibly due to the combination of stimulus and an increase in Hits: 14
NGIFE-2016.pdf Independent Fiscal Office January 2017 1 Research Brief 2017-1 January 2017 2016 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2016, which will be remitted in April 2017. 1 This brief also translates the impact Hits: 14
MTR-2018-07.pdf for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 based on: (1) the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the IFO Official Revenue Estimate published on June 18, 2018 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted after June 18th. 1 General Fund collections were $12 million (0.5 percent) above estimate for July, primarily due to higher than anticipated motor vehicle sales and use tax (SUT, $17 million), non-motor SUT Hits: 14
MRU_2024_11.pdf 25. November General Fund collections of $2.93 billion were $8 million (-0.3%) lower than the IFO’s official estimate. (The IFO estimate for November was $79 million lower than the administration’s official estimate.) Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections total $16 Hits: 14
MRU_2024_09.pdf For September 2024, General Fund collections were $4.16 billion, +$38 million (+0.9%) higher than the IFO’s official estimate for the month. (The IFO estimate for September was $72 million lower than the administration’s official estimate.) For the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD), collections Hits: 14
MRU_2021_03.pdf 284.2 million (6.2 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was largely the result of higher than expected personal income tax (PIT), corporate Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund collections of $28.71 billion are $551.7 million (2.0 percent) above estimate. Monthly PIT collections of $1.37 billion in March exceeded estimate by $72.5 million (5.6 percent) mainly due Hits: 14
MRU_2021_02.pdf 509.7 million (23.4 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The overage was largely the result of a temporary shift in personal income tax (PIT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $23.87 billion, or $267.5 million (1.1 percent) above estimate. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections were $1.8 million (2.6 percent) over the monthly projections for February due Hits: 14
MRU-2023-04.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for April were $434.4 million (8.3%) above the IFO’s official estimate, and are $2.53 billion (7.1%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $383.3 million lower than the estimate certified Hits: 14
MRU-2023-03.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for March were $494.1 million (8.7%) above the IFO’s official estimate, and are $2.10 billion (6.9%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $5.3 million higher than the estimate certified Hits: 14
MRU-2023-01.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for January were $32.8 million (0.9%) above the IFO’s official estimate, and are $1.19 billion (5.4%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $238.4 million lower than the estimate certified Hits: 14
MRU-2022-05.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund collections for May surpassed estimate by $459.1 million (16.6%) and are $5.50 billion (14.3%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was due to strength in sales and use tax (SUT Hits: 14
MRU-2021-06.pdf 350.7 million (10.3%) more than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was mainly due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use 39 billion, $1.95 billion (5.1%) higher than forecasted. June CNIT revenues totaled $711.5 million which surpassed the estimate by $211.1 million (42.2%). The overage in CNIT is due to higher than anticipated estimated (+$173.3 million Hits: 14
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I Frank Lill, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2023-24 Revised Monthly Estimates \| Page 1 FY 2023-24 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates for General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. The monthly estimates are Hits: 14
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf Grove: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide ten-year static and dynamic revenue estimates for proposed changes to the imposition, deposit and expenditure of motor vehicle related tax revenues. Specifically, you request that we estimate: • Deposit of motor vehicle sales and use tax (MVSUT) revenue into the Motor License Fund (MLF). Under current law, MVSUT Hits: 14
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf of key economic factors. CBO Provides Baseline Budget and Economic Projections 3 For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/cost-estimates. CBO is required to produce a formal cost estimate for nearly every bill approved by a full committee. The agency usually produces 600 to 800 cost estimates each year Hits: 14
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute creating the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required to Hits: 14
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute creating the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required to Hits: 14
REU-2019-12.pdf monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections were $58.5 million (-2.0 percent) below estimate for December and $213.9 million (1.4 percent) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income Hits: 13
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf instead of 20 years) for borrowers with original loan balances of $12,000 or less. 1 This research brief presents estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model on the federal budget impact of the changes, the impact across household income quintiles and uses those findings to estimate the potential impact on Pennsylvania borrowers. The most recent data from the U.S. Department of Education are also used Hits: 13
RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf This research brief updates a prior release (September 2021) by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. These updated estimates are based on recent data releases from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Safety Council Hits: 13
RB-2019-01.pdf Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2019-1 January 2019 2018 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2018, which will be remitted in April 2019. 1 This brief also translates the impact Hits: 13
NGIFE-2018.pdf Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2018-2 January 2018 2017 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2017, which will be remitted in April 2018. 1 This brief also translates the impact Hits: 13
MTR-2018-08.pdf revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $54.4 million (2.5 percent) above estimate for August and $66.5 million (1.5 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). August General Fund collections were above estimate primarily due to higher than anticipated Hits: 13
MTR-2017-12.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revised monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 The new release includes the incremental impact on General Fund revenues of (1) Acts 42 2) a recent Supreme Court decision on net operating loss deductions. 2 December collections were $67 million (2.4%) above estimate primarily due to stronger than anticipated collections in personal income tax (PIT) estimated payments ($80 million above estimate, 49.4% Hits: 13
MRU_2024_10.pdf 25. October General Fund collections of $3.38 billion were $71 million (-2.1%) lower than the IFO’s official estimate. (The IFO estimate for October was $128 million higher than the administration’s official estimate.) Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections total $13 Hits: 13
MRU_2024_08.pdf 25. For August 2024, General Fund collections were $2.93 billion, $141 million (+5.1%) above the IFO’s official estimate. (The IFO estimate for August was $87 million lower than the administration’s official estimate.) For the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD), collections Hits: 13
MRU_2023_02.pdf the beginning of September. General Fund collections for February were $407.0 million (16.8%) above the IFO’s official estimate, and are $1.60 billion (6.5%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $55.2 million lower than the estimate certified Hits: 13
MRU_2021_10.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues exceeded the October estimate by $233.6 million (9.1%) and by $948.1 million (8.5%) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) estimate. The monthly outcome was primarily due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax Hits: 13
MRU_2021_01.pdf were $245.8 million (-8.5 percent) below the monthly projections associated with the revised Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly shortfall was the largely the result of a temporary shift in personal income tax 146.0 million, largely meeting the January projection (0.1 percent). The monthly performance was due to higher than anticipated estimated payments ($4.6 million, 6.8 percent) and lower than expected final payments (-$4.5 million, -5.7 percent). CNIT Hits: 13
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2023 Welcome to IFO Initial Revenue Estimate Presentation should run 30 minutes ▪ Will be posted to IFO website at end ▪ Use chat feature to submit questions \| will profits and consumers If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible IFO will issue final revenue estimate June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT rate Hits: 13
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2023 Welcome to IFO Initial Revenue Estimate Presentation should run 30 minutes ▪ Will be posted to IFO website at end ▪ Use chat feature to submit questions \| will profits and consumers If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible IFO will issue final revenue estimate June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT rate Hits: 13
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf our website after the requestor has had three days to review the response and ask questions. The office also (1) estimates the budgetary impact of collective bargaining agreements, (2) coordinates and provides actuarial analysis for proposed changes to the pension systems the Budget and the Secretary of Revenue to discuss economic trends and revenue performance. May 1 Provide an initial revenue estimate for the upcoming fiscal year. June 15 Provide a final revenue estimate for the upcoming fiscal year. Other Office Responsibilities Hits: 13
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf revenue outlook for the current and next fiscal year. A core function of the IFO is the provision of revenue estimates for consideration by the General Assembly. Our next formal release will be on May 1, when our preliminary revenue estimate is due. By June 15, the office will release its official, or final, estimate for FY 2014-15. Although the Hits: 13
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf and Charter Schools School Performance Profile (SPP) Score Charter Schools Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Part II – Cost Multiplier Estimates The tables that follow tabulate all survey responses across the four SPP groups. The first four questions that seek information regarding charter school and transitioning students. Question 1(a): If your average base cost equals 1.0, provide your best estimate of the cost multiplier for a typical ED student who is not also an EL. (Respondents used a drop-down menu Hits: 13
REU-2019-10.pdf IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of October exceeded estimate by $143.7 million (5.7 percent) and by $229.8 million (2.3 percent) for the fiscal year-to- SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. October SUT collections were $41.0 million over estimate (4.1 percent) due almost entirely to higher than anticipated non-motor revenue, which grew at a rate of 8 Hits: 12
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide an update to a previous letter transmitted by the office regarding estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. 1 Your updated request specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant to the estimates:  Establish a new base rebate of $175 for all senior homeowners with household incomes between $35,000 and $50 Hits: 12
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf Plan Funding Standard and Recovery Act Act and Regulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Reporting Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Actuarial Funding Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Required Actuarial Cost Estimates for Benefit Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 General Municipal Pension System State Aid . . . . . 27 Recovery Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 -iii- Table of Contents (Cont'd by which the General Assembly considers this legislation. The Commis- sion’s actuarial notes are required to provide a reliable estimate of both the immediate financial impact and the long- - 4 - range actuarial effect of proposed legislation affecting public employee retirement Hits: 12
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf 2018 Today’s Presentation Updates on topics covered in recent IFO analyses:  School property tax  Demographics  Revenue estimates  Pensions / Act 5 2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax Update New Forecast, Including Homestead Property Background on Property in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 4 March 8, 2018 Homestead Survey IFO uses survey results to inform its estimates of homestead property. Recent constitutional amendment may result in legislative proposals. Data collected from county assessment offices with help from Hits: 12
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf follows the table. State Parks Through FY 2021-22, the department managed 121 state parks for the benefit of an estimated 40 million visitors per year. In FY 2022-23, the department received $45 million in funding to incorporate three additional 21 Acres of forest mortality (000s) 35 20 155 2 7 -- Wildfires (#) 534 690 536 1,507 1,371 800 Estimated wildfire damage ($000s) $559 $538 $25 $5,215 $68 $72 Local Recreation and Conservation Population w/in 10-minute walk Hits: 12
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf only. Covered population is as of October 2020 and is based on July 1, 2019 U.S. Census Bureau population estimates. Troop T patrols the Pennsylvania Turnpike and therefore a calculation for the population covered was not made. The Area Commands to 4,461 for OpenSky. Additionally, the P25 LMR required 36 planned maintenance projects compared to 225 for OpenSky. PSP estimates annual savings of nearly $6 million after OpenSky is fully decommissioned. Pennsylvania State Police Overview \| Page 8 - This page intentionally Hits: 12
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 9 $93.4 $95.7 $96.5 $93.0 $97.8 PennDOT Filled Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Positions Note: IFO estimate for FY 20-21 Highway and Bridge Maintenance includes 427 FTEs for winter operations. Department of Transportation Overview \| Page 5 and long-term implications for agency funding and operations. For its October 2020 revenue update, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimated that gasoline consumption in Pennsylvania declined by roughly 10 percent due to greater telecommuting, re- mote meetings, reduced social gatherings Hits: 12
MTR-2019-09.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues exceeded the September estimate by $111.0 million and by $86.2 million for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was and escheat collections. September CNIT revenues outperformed the forecast by $40.1 million due to overages in both final and estimated payments. CNIT collections are also exceeding the FTYD forecast ($45.1 million) as both final and estimated payments are outperforming Hits: 12
MRU_2022_04.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund collections exceeded the April estimate by $2.00 billion (44.4%) and are $5.04 billion (14.2%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was largely due to very strong personal income tax (PIT Hits: 12
MRU_2021_11.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues exceeded the November estimate by $248.2 million (3.9%) and by $1.20 billion (6.8%) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD to stronger than anticipated sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. Monthly SUT collections were $119.6 million (12.0%) over estimate, driven by strength in non-motor vehicle sales (+$91.1 million, 10.5%). November motor vehicle SUT revenues were $28 Hits: 12
MRU_2021_09.pdf year (FY) 2021-22. General Fund collections of $4.00 billion in September were $551.4 million (16.0%) over estimate. The monthly differential was attributable to strength in all three major tax types: corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and PIT). Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund collections of $9.28 billion are $714.5 million (8.3%) above estimate. Monthly CNIT revenues reached $866.3 million, $192.9 million (28.6%) more than anticipated, propelled primarily by estimated payments Hits: 12
MRU-2021-12.pdf August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues surpassed estimate by $564.4 million (17.2%) for December and by $1.76 billion (8.5%) for the fiscal year-to- SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). Monthly CNIT revenues exceeded the forecast by $273.7 million (44.4%) due to estimated (+$241.1 million, 46.5%) and final (+$32.6 million, 33.4%) payments. FYTD CNIT collections surpass the projection by Hits: 12
May_1_Revenue_Update.pdf revenues. Through April, revenues are running $326 million (+0.9%) above the IFO’s fiscal year (FY) 2023- 24 Official Estimate (published June 20, 2023). Updates for specific sources that impact the revenue forecast for the current and subsequent fiscal year include: • Personal income tax (PIT) annual payments (for tax year 2023) fell $79 million below estimate in April and were $34 million (-2.4%) below collections from April 2023. • The first PIT estimated payment ($463 million Hits: 12
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 15, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimate (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released its official revenue estimate, according to director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 4th, and the official estimate Hits: 11
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 16, 2014 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimate (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released its official revenue estimate, according to director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 1, and the official estimate Hits: 11
QRE_FY15-16.pdf Fiscal Year 2015-16 September 17, 2015 Quarterly Revenue Estimates Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 FY 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates This document provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are Hits: 11
QRE_FY14-15.pdf Fiscal Year 2014-15 August 14, 2014 Quarterly Revenue Estimates About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Hits: 11
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax revenues very strong (much is permanent). Corporate net income gains (temporary, old tax years). IFO adds +$373 million to official revenue estimate. Growing concern over moderate slowdown next few years. Expenditures: many one-time measures expire. Mainly affects Department of Human Services Hits: 11
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf share in nursing homes. Data from PA Department of Health (DOH) Nursing Home Reports and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, Vintage 2020. Calculations by the IFO. 4 Can be multiple RONS within one investigation and multiple abuse types specified. Calculations Report to the PA General Assembly, January 1 - December 31, 2020." Population data: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2020 Population Estimates. Calculations by the the IFO. 65-69 Yrs, 13.7% 65-69 Yrs, 31.7% 70-74 Yrs, 19.2% Hits: 11
MRU-2020-05.pdf overage in various revenue sources. May fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.70 billion (-8.4 percent) below estimate. Monthly sales and use tax (SUT) collections were below estimate by $282.9 million or 28.8 percent in May, with the shortfall in non-motor collections (-$189.5 million Hits: 11
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Ryan: On April 12, 2022, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provided updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. This letter responds to your April 20 request for additional information related to those estimates. Estimates Adjusted for Effective Dates The IFO projects that an October 1 effective date for the proposed sales and use Hits: 11
IFO_Response_Letter_January_21_2025.pdf analysis should update Table 6 in that request with new data. The updated table appears on the next page. The estimates use the same assumptions as used in the prior analysis. Overall, the estimates for new sales and personal income tax revenues increased due to the inflation and revenue surge during the Covid pandemic Hits: 11
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf natural gas extraction took place. Distributions for the last four calendar years are shown in Table 1. (2021 is an estimate.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2021, which will be remitted in April 2022. It also converts the impact fee into Hits: 11
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact January 2019). Section 2: R&D Tax Credit Overview \| Page 7 For this report, DOR and DCED provided estimates for staff time and annual costs to administer and enforce the RDTC. For DOR, the estimates are:  The estimated cost to Hits: 10
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact five years of receipt. Credits may not be carried back, refunded, trans- ferred or sold. The agencies provided estimates for staff time and annual costs to administer and enforce the tax credit:  For DCED, less than one full-time equivalent Hits: 10
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf 2% 578 -12.3% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. IFO Revenue Estimate – General Fund Snapshot June 15, 2016 This snapshot summarizes the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY15-16 and its official revenue estimate for FY16-17. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains Hits: 10
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Hughes: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates related to school district property tax rebates for eligible homesteads. Specifically, your letter requested the following estimates:  The number of properties that may qualify as homestead properties. 1  The statewide average school district property tax Hits: 10
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf Unemployment rate 2,3 5.3% 5.0% 4.4% 4.5% 9.1% 6.7% Notes: 2 CY 2021 estimates based on latest available data. Performance Measures for Unemployment Compensation Benefits 3 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual averages not reported at the federal level; however, the department and its contractor have identified fraudulent claims paid. Fraudulent payments are estimated by the IFO later in this activity using data supplied by the department and the U.S. DOL. ▪ The state Hits: 10
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 17 Statewide Indicators Pennsylvania Veteran Homelessness Declines Over Time Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 1-Year estimates, 2011 - 2019 and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development. 1,392 1,462 1,375 963 857 0 400 2017 2019 # Homeless Vets Share of Pennsylvania Veterans Living in Poverty Increases Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 1-Year estimates, 2011 - 2019. 5.9% 6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 2011 2013 2015 2017 Hits: 10
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact officers of the company. Please note that cost per job calculations in the table above represent lower-bound estimates as certain projects may receive funds from multiple programs.  PA First is a funding tool used to incentivize investment and job Hits: 10
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf the Executive and Legislature.  No governing board. Non-partisan vs. bi-partisan.  Primary duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  in funding for higher education that has not been approved. Lapses for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 are estimates. Source: Executive Budgets, various years and IFO Official Revenue Estimate (June 2017). October 19, 2017 5 Budget Status  Unresolved Hits: 10
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf I Michaela Bowers, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates \| Page 1 FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates of General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates are Hits: 10
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf S. Profits and Business Investment 25.Jan.2017 9 Financial Markets Recover Note: Dividend data for 2016 Q4 is an estimate. Sources: Yahoo Finance and Factset. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% S&P 500 S&P 500 Dividend Payments Revenue Outlook 25.Jan.2017 10 25.Jan.2017 11 Original IFO FY 2016-17 Estimate Dollar Amount Growth Policy & Timing Adjusted Growth General Fund $32,510 5.2% $875 2.4% Corporate Net Income 2 Hits: 10
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 28, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2014-15 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15. The revised estimate is $30.207 billion, which is $250 million higher than the Hits: 10
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf fiscal condition over the next five fiscal years. Revenue and expenditure projections are not intended to be used as point estimates of future outcomes. Method of Presentation In order to illustrate broad trends and convey their impact, it is useful to government spending (-0.2 percentage points). Expansive fiscal policy provided broad support to the 2010 economy. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the stimulative impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 peaked in 2010, increasing real GDP Hits: 10
2024_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf 2024 Impact Fee Estimate December 2024 Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This update uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2024, which will be remitted in April 2025. Proceeds are distributed to local governments and Hits: 10
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Revenues July 2019 to January 2020 January 28, 2020 7 Actual Revenues IFO Estimate Admin Estimate Amount Growth Adjust Amount $ Diff Amount $ Diff General Fund $18,710 3.1% 4.1% $18,517 $194 $18,534 Hits: 10
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf natural gas extraction took place. Distributions for the last four calendar years are shown in Table 1. (2020 is an estimate.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2020, which will be remitted in April 2021. It also converts the impact fee into Hits: 10
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact 3) a project site plan, (4) any additional information necessary to eval- uate the proposed rehabilitation work, (5) estimated cost and (6) evidence of qualified historic structure. 11  The PHMC reviews the application and issues a decision within 30 calendar Hits: 9
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf examine all revenue proposals in the Executive Budget Slide 2 Jan 2024 Roundtable Economy performs as expected • Through January, IFO estimate ~$130 million (0.5%) over actual $23.7 billion • Expecting modest growth next year PA Short-Term Demographics Forecast Slide 1% Note: Numbers in thousands. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. In Dec 2023, the Census released a 2023 PA population estimate of 12,961,000 but age detail were not included. Next release is Dec 2024. Forecast by IFO. PA Economic Hits: 9
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office May 26, 2021 Key Issues and Questions Economy overperforms due to massive federal transfers vehicle sales tax +31% +18% +21% 1 st EIP 3 rd EIP car dealerships close Note: 2021 Q2 data are estimates based on data for April and May. Percentages at far right are cumulative growth rates since 2019 Q2. Potential Asset Hits: 9
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released updated revenue estimates for FY 2015-16 and FY 2016-17, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues its initial Hits: 9
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf IFO Revenue Estimate – General Fund Snapshot June 15, 2015 This snapshot summarizes the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY14-15 and its official revenue estimate for FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains Hits: 9
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 4, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released new revenue estimates for FY 2014-15 and FY 2015-16, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an initial Hits: 9
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf are shown due to the small number of data points at the state level for those subgroups (which makes point estimates unreliable). For Pennsylvania, the LFPR for July 2019 was 63.0%, which implies that 63.0% of all residents age Fiscal Office Page 5 Recent and Long-Term Demographic Trends From 2019 to 2022, the state population contracted by an estimated 48,000 residents and the median age increased. 10 While the first outcome is relatively new, the second is a Hits: 9
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf are shown due to the small number of data points at the state level for those subgroups (which makes point estimates unreliable). For Pennsylvania, the LFPR for May 2019 was 63.0%, which implies that 63.0% of all residents age Fiscal Office Page 5 Recent and Long-Term Demographic Trends From 2019 to 2022, the state population contracted by an estimated 48,000 residents and the median age increased. 13 While the first outcome is relatively new, the second is a Hits: 9
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf  Low/stable energy prices January 29, 2019 5 FYTD Revenues Through January January 29, 2019 6 Actual Revenues IFO Estimate Admin Estimate Amount Growth Amount $ Diff Amount $ Diff General Fund $18,144 4.5% $17,835 $310 $17,865 $279 Corp. Net Hits: 9
perez ppt.pdf total state budget gap: $527.7 billion (FY 2008- FY 2013 est.) FY 2012 Tax Collections (Compared with the Latest Estimate) Personal Income Tax* General Sales Tax Corporate Income Tax Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Not applicable Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, Fall 2011 New Hampshire and Tennessee Hits: 9*
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Annual Statistical Report, 2017. Calculations by the IFO. 1 Annual jail budget spent divided by county resident population estimate for 2017. County Benchmarks \| Page 10 have an SCI inmate rate that exceeds the statewide average of 379 inmates per 100,000 Hits: 9
NGIFE-2015.pdf 5,000 7,500 7,500 7,500 Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. CY 2015 estimates by the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice. 1 Housing Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement Fund. 2011 $204,210 108,726 82,484 of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange ($2.66) moving below the $3.00 per MMbtu threshold. 2 Estimated impact: ‐$32.7 million.  Fewer new wells. Wells pay the highest impact fee for their first operating year. The Hits: 9
NFIB_Presentation.pdf September 2011; 10 staff, but expanding. ◦ Like the Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and policy recommendations. Dec.13.2017 3 IFO Role in the Budget Process May 1 (prelim) and June 15: issue revenue estimate. ◦ Provides General Assembly a starting point for deliberations. ◦ Governor still provides “official certification” of estimate. November 15: Five-Year Budget Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf Black Knight show that 2020 will easily be the largest year on record for first-lien mortgage originations at an estimated $4.4 trillion. Refinancings comprise most of that activity and through 2020 Q3, 6.4 million U.S. homeowners refinanced was rate and term adjustments only. (By comparison, the cash-out share was closer to 50% in 2019 Q3.) The estimated average cash out was $51,600 and total equity withdrawn was $37 billion for the quarter. Data from Freddie Mac Hits: 9
mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 25, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2016-17 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than the Hits: 9
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY 2018-19 Through January, actual revenues exceed the IFO official revenue estimate by $321 million (and the Administration’s estimate by $290 million). However, for January, revenues were roughly $100 million below estimate due to a shortfall in the fourth Hits: 9
April_1_Revenue_Update.pdf to-date revenues. Through March, revenues are running $284 million (0.9%) above the IFO’s FY 2023-24 Official Estimate (published June 20, 2023). Updates for specific revenue sources that impact the revenue forecast for the current and subsequent fiscal the month, $306 million higher than projected last June. June IPT collections are expected to be roughly $20 million below estimate, as the additional revenues through March will increase the transfer to the Municipal Pension Aid Fund. • The first estimated payment Hits: 9
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf a -40k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Blue shading is an estimate (some data available) or projection (no data available). Latest PA Economic Trends Slide 4 Mid-Year Update 2023.1 2023 Dollar Amount Dollar Change YOY Growth Notes General Fund Revenues $23,735 $376 1.6% 1.0% adjusted, $140m below estimate Corporate Net Income 2,852 20 0.7 gains despite 1.0 ppt rate cut Sales - Non-Motor 7,717 Hits: 9
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact authorized credits lapse or are returned each year due to cancellations or other technical issues. The agencies provided estimates for staff time and annual costs to administer and enforce the tax credit:  For DCED, one to two full-time equivalent Hits: 8
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office May 26, 2020 Solid PA Growth Prior to Pandemic May 26, 2020 1 Year- Capita Consumer Debt 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% Revenues Through March (exclude COVID-19) +$165 million over estimate Note: Figures for 2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U Hits: 8
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 Independent Fiscal Office May 20, 2019 Main Themes PA economy performs as expected in 2018  GDP 769 -1,687 -68.7% Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Actual Revenues vs. IFO Estimate May 20, 2019 8 FY 2018-19 (through April) Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund Revenues $29,163 $28,273 $890 Hits: 8
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf Overview Economic Outlook o Changes to forecast. o Consumer spending is crucial – primary driver of economic growth. Revenue Forecast o Estimates vs. Year‐to‐Date actuals. o Outlook for rest of fiscal year and next fiscal year. Discussion and questions 23 Revenue Forecasts 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 10 General Fund 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 11 Revenue Source Estimate Growth Total General Fund $28,510 3.0% Corporate Net Income 2,257 11.6% Sales and Use 9,179 Hits: 8
RB_2025_02_Electricity.pdf of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, Tennessee and Washington D.C. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2024 estimated by the IFO based on EIA data through November. Consumption Consumption growth was largely driven by Virginia, which is home 2019 and 2024 and total net exports for other PJM states (excludes PA and IL). For 2024, Pennsylvania exported an estimated 87 million megawatt hours of electricity, nearly double the second highest export state. (As defined by the EIA, net exports Hits: 8
RB_2024_07_Budget_Update.pdf 624 million (FY 23-24), -$2.0 billion (FY 24-25) and -$3.0 billion (FY 25-26). 1 Those estimates were based on tax law effective at that time and the spending policies embedded in the FY 23-24 budget can now be updated based on the FY 24-25 enacted budget, recent tax law changes and the latest revenue estimates. For the same three fiscal years, the updated deficits are -$892 million (FY 23-24), -$3.3 billion (FY 24- Hits: 8
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate FYTD Revenues Through May 2018 Amount Change Growth General Fund $31,483 $3,078 10.8% Corporate Net Income 2 468 1,589 180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.05.2018 2 Two Estimates of the Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 Hits: 8
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 2015-2019 Survey Results. Performance Measures for MA - Physical Health Services 3 See Notes on Measures. 16 2019 uninsured rate estimated by the IFO. Source: Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau. 4 Potentially preventable admissions is the percentage of inpatient acute care discharges with subsequent readmission to Hits: 8
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office June 22, 2020 Solid PA Growth Prior to Pandemic June 22, 2020 1 Year- Capita Consumer Debt 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% Revenues Through March (exclude COVID-19) +$165 million over estimate Note: Figures for 2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U Hits: 8
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf 103,000 for facility usage, planning and promotions: $45,000 from the DCED grant, $58,000 from HVAB. The IFO estimates that event attendees (athletes, companions, visitors and volunteers) spent roughly $2.2 million in the days leading up to and VRBO) • $427,000 on food and beverage (restaurants) • $832,000 on retail and other expenditures (transport, car rental, clothing) These estimates assume that (1) the average out-of-state and international athlete stayed 3 nights, (2) non-local Pennsylvania athletes stayed Hits: 8
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 2, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released new revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an initial Hits: 8
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdf Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Brown: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates for a proposed two-tier property tax rebate for senior homeowners (age 65 and over) in certain income ranges. The 000 in household income. The table on the next page uses data from the 2021 American Community Survey to display estimates for (1) the number of Pennsylvania homeowners that would receive a rebate based on the specified income groups, (2) the Hits: 8
EPLC_April_2024.pdf Fiscal Office Most states have a fiscal office \| PA is unique Office Responsibilities Slide 2 Education Policy & Leadership Center • Revenue estimates \| Economic & demographic trends • Economic analysis of executive revenue proposals • 5-Year Economic & Budget Outlook • Performance-based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews Budget Outlook • Jan 31: Mid-Year Revenue Update • Mar/Apr: Analysis of Executive Budget Revenue Proposals • May 20: Preliminary Revenue Estimate • June 20: Final Revenue Estimate Education Policy & Leadership Center Budget Cycle and IFO’s Role Slide 3 Overview and Notes Hits: 8
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact to support or refute that an MTBI credit equal to only 5 percent of the equipment purchased (an estimated 3-4 percent of the total project costs) has a significant impact on new investment in Pennsylvania broadband infrastructure. This analysis as- Hits: 7
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 telephone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Coordinators are not DCED employees and do not receive state compensation for their efforts. DOR and DCED provided estimates for staff time and annual cost to administer and enforce the KIZ Tax Credit. For DOR, the estimates are:  The cost Hits: 7
SR2017-06.pdf Mr. Hill, The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania (CCAP) recently provided the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) with assistance in obtaining estimates for the assessed value of homestead property in Pennsylvania. Specifically, CCAP coordinated a survey of county assessment offices that resulted the recent passage of the constitutional amendment expanding the homestead exclusion. The purpose of the CCAP/IFO survey was to estimate for each county the number of properties that currently qualify as homestead property, the total assessed value of such homestead Hits: 7
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf ACS) and statewide property tax revenue reported by PDE and the Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), the IFO estimates that owner-occupied households remit approximately 58% of statewide property taxes (see technical detail for methodology). That parameter applies to delinquent school property tax collections. Act 1 allocations are used to offset property taxes for homestead properties, and the homeowner estimates include 100% of such allocations. The same data sources show that senior homeowners (age 65 or older) remitted approximately 35% Hits: 7
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf ACS) and statewide property tax revenue reported by PDE and the Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), the IFO estimates that owner-occupied households remit approximately 58% of statewide property taxes (see technical detail for methodology). That parameter applies to delinquent school property tax collections. Act 1 allocations are used to offset property taxes for homestead properties, and the homeowner estimates include 100% of such allocations. The same data sources show that senior homeowners (age 65 or older) remitted approximately 30% Hits: 7
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf quarter. Source: Wall Street Journal, Freddie Mac, FHFA, Zillow and Federal Reserve Board of New York. FY 2021-22 Revised Estimate May 23, 2022 8 June 2021 Official May 2022 Revised Dollar Change Adjusted Growth General Fund $41,915 $47,730 market was up +32% for year ▪ Early data suggests it is concentrated to top end (i.e., capital gains) First estimated payment for tax year 2022 (April) up +44% May 23, 2022 10 Pennsylvania Non-Wage Income Surges May 23, 2022 Hits: 7
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. CY 2020 Lost Labor Income More Than Offset October 29, 2020 2 Estimate Notes Lost Labor Income ($ billions) Wages-Salaries -$20.8 6% reduction vs no-pandemic scenario Self-Employment -3.2 15% control for revenue shifts for tax relief and miscellaneous one-time transfers. Excludes non-tax revenues. IFO and Administration Revenue Estimates FY 2020-21 October 29, 2020 9 IFO Official Admin Official Dollar Difference General Fund $35,874 $34,631 $1 Hits: 7
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Tomlinson: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. Currently the supplemental rebate regardless of tax burden. Your letter specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant to the estimates:  Establish a new base rebate of $175 for all senior homeowners with household incomes between $35,000 and $50 Hits: 7
RB_2024_10_School_Funding.pdf fewer school districts raised millage rates. Property taxes as a share of total revenues fell from 46.1% to an estimated 43.8%. ▪ Growth in other local revenue sources (excludes property taxes) outpaced total revenue growth. Notably, earned income tax revenues increased by an estimated 4.9% per annum, due to strong wage growth in CY 2021 (7.3%) and CY 2022 (7.7%). ▪ Federal Hits: 7
RB_2023_06_Jackpot_Lottery.pdf details Pennsylvania annual gross ticket sales, number and total amount of all jackpots won within a year (including 1 Internal estimates by IFO as of June 12, 2023. 2 Jackpot rolls occur if there is no jackpot winner and the jackpot extra disposal income from various pandemic payments and tax credits. Game/ Fiscal Year Amount ($ millions) Growth (%) Number Cash Value Advertised Estimated Value Advertised to Cash Value Ratio Mega Millions 2017-18 $134 41.8% 6 $1,023 $1,654 1.62 Hits: 7
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf are shown due to the small number of data points at the state level for those subgroups (which makes point estimates unreliable). For Pennsylvania, the LFPR for September 2019 was 63.0%, which implies that 63.0% of all residents age demographic trends. Residual contraction would then be attributable to other factors, such as those noted above. Table 4 displays IFO estimates and projections of the state population based on the latest data from the U.S. Census. Three years are shown Hits: 7
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf g., SNAP) and retirement income. Income patterns were dramatically impacted by COVID-19 pandemic relief programs. For 2020, the BEA estimates that around $53 billion was distributed to counties through various programs including unemployment compensation (UC) ($30 billion, includes regular state business loans to each county. This share was then applied to the BEA statewide total of $5.2 billion to estimate county-level breakouts. These amounts do not include loans to C corporations ($7.6 billion) and S corporations ($5.5 Hits: 7
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf incorporated into its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results from those projections that estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. It is noted that these results are death data prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic for 2017 to 2019, preliminary figures for 2020 and estimates for 2021 based on data through September 2021. After three years of relatively flat total deaths, the 2020 data show Hits: 7
RB-2015-04.pdf proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the number of workers who would be directly or potentially affected by the proposal. It then uses responsiveness or elasticity tips and commissions, at least equals the higher minimum wage), but the data do not allow the analysis to reliably estimate those amounts. 7 All self‐employed individuals are also excluded from Table 4. T P I H M W Having Hits: 7
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf staff. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Revenue projections used for advisory purposes only.  Our Primary Duties: • Annual Revenue Estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Economic and Budget Outlook: November 15. • Mid-Year Update: late January.  Office Does Not Budget Timelines Year-to-Date Performance Revisions to General Fund Revenues 12.Feb.2015 5  I. Official General Fund Estimates Released. • Independent Fiscal Office: May 1 and June 15. • Administration: end of June (certified estimate).  II. The Economic and Hits: 7
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  2017 Revised revenue projections for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 Revenues Through January 10.Feb.2017 15 IFO Estimated FYTD Actual FYTD Variance Projected Growth Actual Growth General Fund $16,456 $16,097 -$359 3.5% 1.2% Corporate Hits: 7
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact table on previous page… 12 Calendar year basis. Data from U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (2017). Latest data available from this data set. 3 Percent of kindergarten students with two or more doses of measles, mumps and Hits: 7
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Actual expenditures are listed in the year the expenditure was recorded. FY 19- 20 expenditures do not include estimated supplemental appropriations as of October 31, 2019. Department of Human Services Overview \| Page 9 Performance-Based Budget Plan: Key Metrics and Observations Hits: 7
NAP-2018-03.pdf would remain unchanged. This report provides an overview of each component of the NAP, explains how the program works and estimates the economic impact of state spending for this purpose. 2 PROGRAM OVERVIEW The Neighborhood Assistance Program utilizes tax credits to state economy is through the use of Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. RIMS II multipliers provide an estimate of the change in total economic output for a given change in direct spending. For example, an output multiplier of Hits: 7
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up well, and actual revenues are up roughly $190 million over estimate once we account for earlier-than-anticipated monies from the lease of the Farm Show complex and non-recurring monies Hits: 7
IFO_Testimony_CR_June_29_2023.pdf Mexico (2020). ▪ In 2021 and 2022, legislation was introduced in Virginia and Maryland. The second table displays recent published revenue estimates for states that enacted or proposed combined reporting: ▪ Across these states, there appears to be a consensus that combined reporting would increase tax revenues by roughly 8% to 12%. ▪ Some states did not issue a revenue impact estimate due to the high degree of uncertainty (Kentucky, New Mexico). ▪ It should be noted that the revenue impact could vary Hits: 7
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf Section 179 expensing); and HB 1960 PN 2247 (raise the net operating loss (NOL) deduction threshold). You request that the estimates “be prepared on the basis of assumptions that consider the probable behavioral responses of taxpayers, businesses and other persons and conformity to the federal income tax code for like-kind exchanges (Section 1031 of the Internal Revenue Code). The IFO estimates a negative revenue impact of $30 to $35 million (first full fiscal year effective) that declines to $20 to $25 Hits: 7
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policy_2025_Update.pdf design changes (e.g., modification of defined-benefit and defined-contribution plans). By statute, all actuarial notes shall include reliable estimates of financial and actuarial effects from the proposed legislation. In addition, legislation that would result in a “substantial benefit design include all. For example, the IFO could contact the systems if a proposal imposes significant administrative costs, and include those estimates in a letter, but not include a simulation of actuarial impacts as there would likely be none. Alternatively, the IFO Hits: 7
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdf design changes (e.g., modification of defined-benefit and defined- contribution plans). By statute, all actuarial notes shall include reliable estimates of financial and actuarial effects from the proposed legislation and legislation that would result in a “substantial benefit design change include all. For example, the IFO could contact the systems if a proposal imposes significant administrative costs, and include those estimates in a letter, but not include a simulation of actuarial impacts as there would likely be none. Alternatively, the IFO Hits: 7
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf SERS: FY 2012-13 base year; growth based on employer rates and underlying agency growth.  PSERS: System with an estimate of the state share. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 27 15.Nov.2012 Pensions The Economic and Budget Outlook of Revenue Projections  Intended to display revenue trends; primary value is in long-term growth rates, rather than point estimates.  Methodology for long-term estimates differ from methodology used to estimate revenues for the budget. The Economic and Budget Hits: 7
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf Overview  Introduction to Independent Fiscal Office (IFO).  Who we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference Conference Some Specific Mandated Duties  Per Act 120 of 2010:  Initial (May 1) and Official (June 15) revenue estimate.  Five-Year Outlook Report (November 15).  Annual Revenue Conference (January 31).  Two Studies: (1) Sales and Use Hits: 7
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf 5 billion) refundable tax credits. Credits were attributable to tax year 2021 but received as a refund in CY 2022. Estimates for PA assume state is 4% of US total reported on tax return. SNAP emergency allotments end Feb 2023 ~$100 Dollars in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for one-time/new transfers. January revenues are estimated. Mid-Year Update for FY 2022-23 January 31, 2023 14 IFO Official Estimate (June 2022) Mid-Year Update Amount Hits: 7
Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf from 2.0% to 2.25% (July 2017) and then to 2.5% (July 2018) of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits is $4.8 million. The Total column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts that will be initially incurred by a state fund, but will likely be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO Hits: 6
Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf from 2.0% to 2.25% (July 2017) and then to 2.5% (July 2018) of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits If the attrition factor was set to 0 (i.e., no change in the composition of the workforce), then the estimated total cost of the agreement would increase by approximately $4 million. 3  Compute the differential. This represents the incremental Hits: 6
Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf from 2.0% to 2.25% (July 2017) and then to 2.5% (July 2018) of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 1 If both attrition factors were set to 0 (i.e., no change in workforce or its composition), then the estimated total cost of the agreement would increase by approximately $17 million. 3  Compute the differential. This represents the incremental Hits: 6
TC_and_Other_Incentives_Dec_2024.pdf is separated into four categories: tax credits, spending or grants, job training programs and loan programs. The amounts reported are estimates of the dollars claimed or awarded each fiscal year. For FY 2024-25, amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and 585 million was spent or allocated for economic development projects, an increase of $56 million from the prior year. An estimated $872 million is budgeted for economic development projects and grants in FY 2024-25 (See table on page 4.) Notable Hits: 6
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf it deter- mines that the firm did not meet the requirements due to circumstances beyond the firm’s control. The estimated annual staff time and cost for DCED and DOR to administer the MTC are currently nominal, but those costs are that would not have occurred in the absence of the program generally range from 2 to 8 percent. One study estimated the incentivized share at roughly 25 percent, but the total number of jobs generated by the program reviewed for that Hits: 6
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf application against the recipient’s Pennsylvania state tax liability and DOR ensures that the tax credit is applied appropriately. DOR estimates that the NAP Tax Credit requires two full-time equivalent (FTE) staff to administer at a cost of $0.2 million annually. DCED estimates that the credit requires 0.8 FTE staff to administer at a cost of $0.1 million annually. Historical Data Hits: 6
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf the TCJA on the federal income tax remitted by Pennsylvania residents. For example, the U.S. Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the TCJ A will reduce total federal income taxes by $189 billion for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2018- 19, while the UPenn Wharton School estimates a reduction of $169 billion. 1 Based on other federal tax data, the IFO estimates that the Pennsylvania share of Hits: 6
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf i.e., net of the economic impacts that could be derived from the alternative use of state spending), as the estimates assume that states must reduce spending or raise taxes to fund tax credits. The Net Tax Revenue Impact reflects the projects received a credit allocation, and allocations typically comprised 50% to 75% of the requested amount, or roughly 1% of estimated project costs. ▪ The credit is oversubscribed. Data show that additional projects sought credit allocations, but available funds had been exhausted Hits: 6
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf published in the IFO’s FY 2021-22 Mid-Year Update. Those projections are adjusted by the IFO’s preliminary estimates for the revenue modifications proposed in the Executive Budget. (The IFO is still finalizing projections for the proposed revenue modifications.) Outyear revenue collections are estimated by applying the growth rates published in the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2021-22 to Hits: 6
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf Chairman Browne asked if the IFO and the Department of Revenue had discussed the differences in the current year revenue estimates. During the Department of Revenue’s (DOR) Senate Budget Hearing, DOR noted that the Executive Budget came together in late December/early January and stated that recent revenues have exceeded the projections contained in that document. The IFO estimate was finalized towards the end of January. Overall, the IFO’s forecast is higher across all revenue sources. The IFO Hits: 6
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf IFO Revenue Estimate – General Fund Snapshot June 16, 2014 This snapshot summarizes the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY13-14 and its official revenue estimate for FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains Hits: 6
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdf 10 th and 50 th (i.e., median) percentiles for three lower- wage occupations in May 2022 and May 2024 (estimate) for Pennsylvania. While many occupations would be impacted by a higher minimum wage, these three occupations comprise nearly half of likely to be impacted. The top bank of figures is published data for May 2022 (latest), the second bank is estimates for May 2024, and the third bank is the differential between the two snapshots. Estimates for employment and hourly wages Hits: 6
RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdf million. Table 1: PTRR Statistics for 2021 Claimants Claimants Rebates ($ millions) Rebates ($ millions) Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The IFO estimates that the changes will increase rebates by $159.1 million for claim year 2023. Homeowners are estimated to receive $91.8 million (57.7%) due to expansion, and renters receive $67.3 million (42.3%) (see table Hits: 6
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf 0 Other 1 0 Less: Enhanced FMAP Phaseout 524 0 Increased State Costs Due to Phaseout 1,966 2,566 Estimated Expenditures Covered by Enhanced FMAPs Note: Expenditures in dollar millions. Fully Enhanced FMAP amounts for FY 23-24and FY 24- 25 assumed to grow at 3.0% per annum. Source: Enhanced FMAP Phaseout figures for FY 23-24 from DHS. Estimates by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 The analysis separates enrollee populations based on the applicable FMAP. As of Hits: 6
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates (as of July 1st of every year). The 2000 - 2009 data is from the Intercensal Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex and Age for States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010. The 2010 - 2012 Hits: 6
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 4, 2018 June.04.2018 2 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate FYTD Revenues Through May 2018 Amount Change Growth General Fund $31,483 $3,078 10.8% Corporate Net Income 2 468 1,589 180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.04.2018 3 Two Estimates of the Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 Hits: 6
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf 803 -1,665 -67.5% Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Actual Revenues vs. IFO Estimate June 11, 2019 8 FY 2018-19 (through May) Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund Revenues $31,779 $30,871 $908 Corporate Net Income 2,825 2,502 324 Gross Receipts 1 Hits: 6
Pennsylvania_Tax_Incidence_Model_Methodology_2024.pdf income), nor are Medicaid and Medicare benefits. State tax incidence models have typically used one of two data sources to estimate resident incomes: federal income tax return and administrative data (used by the Cash Income metric for this model) or the for residents who work outside the state (and non-residents who commute into the state to work). By comparison, an estimated $371 billion (88% of NIPA total, no deduction for retirement contributions) was reported on state income tax returns by state Hits: 6
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Senator John C. Rafferty This report presents the results from an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to estimate toll revenues collected by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission (PTC) through calendar year 2024. The scope of this analysis is limited Hits: 6
MRU-2020-07.pdf above the prior year. The growth was entirely attributable to the virus-related extension of final (tax year 2019) and estimated (tax year 2020) payments from April and June to July. Withholding declined $22.7 million from the prior year, or transfers. Monthly sales and use tax (SUT) revenues increased $330.3 million (35.7 percent) from July 2019. The IFO estimates that $160 million of the increase in non-motor vehicle SUT was attributable to the prepayment requirement, which was temporarily Hits: 6
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf have a governing board composed of legislators ▪ Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage 4.2% 2.5% Note: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. Data for CY 2020 and 2020 Q4 are estimates by IFO. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor Force is change from prior year. Labor market data are not seasonally Hits: 6
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf governing board composed of legislators  Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues:  Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?)  Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews  Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Social Security Administration. Computations by IFO. Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceed estimate for FY 2019-20  Most gains are in inheritance tax and escheats  Labor market stronger than expected \| inflation Hits: 6
Electricity_Update_2024.pdf five states for net exports of electricity for 2023 and net exports for regional states. For 2023, Pennsylvania exported an estimated 83 million megawatt hours of electricity, notably higher (85%) than the second highest export state. (As defined by the EIA includes petroleum and other renewables. Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 CO 2 Emissions Despite generation growth since 2018, the IFO estimates that the Pennsylvania power sector continues to reduce both absolute and per unit CO 2 emissions. Estimated emissions for 2023 Hits: 6
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf Independent Fiscal Office January 21, 2016 IFO to Release Revised Revenue Estimates and Updated Fiscal Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2 Hits: 6
Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf from 2.0% to 2.25% (July 2017) and then to 2.5% (July 2018) of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreements, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 2.64%). 3 If the attrition factor was set to 0 (i.e., no change in workforce composition), then the estimated total cost of the agreements would increase by approximately $1.5 million. 4 For these agreements, the analysis assumes that Hits: 6
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Grove: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide updated estimates for the reduction in school property taxes due to the implementation of Act 25 of 2011. The request also included an estimate of the impact on residential property and business property taxpayers. This analysis provides a high-level estimate of the potential Hits: 6
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Mid-Year Update FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2022 Today’s Presentation Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Corporate net income, sales tax, personal income, inheritance Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 transfers and extra deposit day for withholding. Mid-Year Update for FY 2021-22 January 31, 2022 15 IFO Official Estimate Mid-Year Update Amount Growth Adjusted Amount $ Change Adjusted General Fund $41,915 3.8% 0.0% $45,322 $3 Hits: 6
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf report contains various recommendations. A summary is as follows: ▪ The SCC should collaborate with the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate the pol- lution reduction resulting from REAP-qualified BMP projects. ▪ The SCC should review the current policy of approving tax requires roughly 1.4 full-time equivalent (FTE) DOR staff at a cost of $0.1 million annually. The SCC estimates that the credit requires 1.3 FTE staff at cost of $0.1 million annually. Historical Data Table 2.1 Hits: 5
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf inherent to brownfield redevelopment projects, investors often require a higher rate of return to participate. This “brownfield premium” has been estimated as high as an additional 10 to 15 percent. 11 In response, states have implemented a wide variety of programs relative to a new property is potentially 10 to 35 percent. In addition, one acre of redeveloped brownfield has been estimated to conserve 4.5 acres of greenfield. The paper also looked at the use of the remediated properties and how Hits: 5
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf 1-10 and October 1- 10. The department evaluates applications based on compliance with program guidelines and the following criteria: ▪ Estimated number of rehearsal days in a qualified rehearsal facility. ▪ Number of concerts at Class 1, 2 and 3 venues. ▪ Projected on similar state tax credit programs. Economic and Fiscal Impact of Louisiana Entertainment Tax Credits (2019) The report provides an estimate of the economic impact of Louisiana’s Motion Picture Production (film), Sound Recording Investor (sound), and Musical and Theatrical Production Hits: 5
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact based on compliance with tax payment and filing obligations and the verification of evidence supporting the application. DOR estimates that the OBMD requires six staff hours to administer at a cost of $340 annually. Historical Data In conducting a tax credit Hits: 5
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The amount reported for each incentive is an estimate of the dollars claimed or awarded each fiscal year. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and Hits: 5
SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits million (FY 2021-22) and $12.4 million (FY 2022-23). The four-year total is $30.3 million. 1 Estimates do not include the impact of a new Retention Incentive Payment Program which would provide eligible employees in certain job Hits: 5
Response-Letter-05-13-2019.pdf 207 FY 2018-19 Tax Freeze 11 - - 408 823 1,318 1,853 2,438 Note: in millions of dollars. Estimates are long-term and assume an effective date prior to FY 2017-18. 9 Homestead school district property tax only would be 9.0% or 10.0%. The new rates for Allegheny county would be 8.0% or 9.0%. Estimates assume that all transfers from SUT are adjusted to a revenue neutral rate, i.e., special funds do not receive Hits: 5
RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdf from 165% of the federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG) to 200%. At the time, the Department of Human Services (DHS) estimated that 420,000 residents would become newly eligible for SNAP. For 2024, the 165% monthly FPIG limit is $2,005 In August 2023, the Commonwealth expanded eligibility to certain college students. At the time, the administration did not provide an estimate of the impact. The SNAP expansion occurred despite flat population growth and a (current) record-low unemployment rate. These trends Hits: 5
QRE_FY15-16.xlsx General Fund FY 2015-16 General Fund Revenue Estimates (dollar amounts in millions) 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 FY 2015-16 Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan- and Interest 23.4 22.3 20.3 6.2 72.2 1 See below for additional detail. 2 Includes estimated fiscal year collections of $0.6 million for taverrn games. FY 2015-16 General Fund Revenue Estimates - Detail (dollar amounts Hits: 5
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Programs ‐153 PHEAA Grants ‐ 39 Other (various increases/decreases) ‐8 Total ‐150 Note: dollar amounts are in millions. Compared to estimates in the January 2016 IFO report, which was based primarily on Act 10A of 2015. 8.Jun.2016 8  Hits: 5
PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits period.  For Other State Funds, the annual costs are nominal. The four-year total is $0.1 million. 1 Estimates do not include the impact of modifications to the Quality Assurance Program (QAP). Under these changes, those with 20 or Hits: 5
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf U.S. territories. ▪ Statewide health insurance coverage figures are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) for the corresponding calendar year. The SAHIE estimates are used for both state- and county-level estimates. The table above displays outcomes for the first two years of Hits: 5
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf Quartiles by Median Household Income and Students of Color Notes: Source: PDE Website. Education Budget Basic Education Funding. 2021-22 Estimated Basic Education Funding. See https://www.education.pa.gov/Teachers%20-%20Administrators/School%20Finances/Education%20Budget/ Pages/default.aspx. Calculations by IFO. 1 144 6,555 3,843 3,144 School District Quartiles Based on Poverty, Students of Color and Local Effort Index Estimated FY 21-22 BEF Distribution FY 21-22 If BEF Had Been Distributed Completely Through Fair Funding Formula Notes: BEF Hits: 5
NGPR-2017Q3.pdf at some point in the future). These graphs pertain only to horizontal production and well counts. Figures for 2017 are estimates based on year-to-date spud and production data published by DEP and forecasts by Bentek Energy. Figures for 2011 2016 was 1,470, a decline of 11.1 percent from the prior year. For 2017, total production volume is estimated to be 5,300 bcf, an increase of 4.3 percent from the prior year. Producing wells are estimated to Hits: 5
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf Marcellus Shale Coalition Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 31, 2022 1 Overview A sizable budget surplus this year ▪ Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Approximately $6 billion in federal relief supports current year budget ▪ Proposed for FY 22-23: Minimum wage increase \| corporate tax tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for due date shifts, one-time transfers and extra deposit day for withholding. Initial Revenue Estimate for FY 2022-23 March 31, 2022 4 Revised 2021-22 Initial 2022-23 Dollar Change Percent Change Adjusted Growth Hits: 5
MSC_Jan_2025.pdf changes are year-over-year. Sales tax growth rates are pre-transfer. 2024 Q4 PA Credit Card Debt is an estimate based on U.S. data. Labor market data are seasonally adjusted and 2024.4 is preliminary. Source: U.S. Bureau Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and NYFRB. Slide 3 FY 2024-25 Revenues Through January Amount IFO Estimate Difference $ Change from 23-24 Growth from 23-24 General Fund Revenues $24,130 $24,029 $101 $377 1.6% Hits: 5
MRU_2021_07.pdf motor revenues totaled $1.07 billion and were $10.8 million (1.0%) higher than the prior year. The IFO estimates that July 2020 was overstated by roughly $160 million due to the temporary suspension of the non-motor prepayment requirement 33.6%). Monthly Revenue Update July 2021 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund $2,700.2 n.a. n.a. $2,700.2 n.a. n.a Hits: 5
MRU-2022-07.pdf motor SUT. July CNIT collections totaled $150.5 million and were $20.9 million (-12.2%) below the prior year. Estimated payments of $78.1 million drove that decline (-$19.8 million, -20.2%), in addition to final payments (-$1.1 6 million). Monthly Revenue Update July 2022 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund $2,696.2 n.a. n.a. $2,696.2 n.a. n.a Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf 33 (+64.1%) over 2020 and would be the highest full-year average price since 2014. In June, the IFO estimated that if the average NYMEX price for 2021 ranged from $3.00 to $4.99, then Impact Fee collections (remitted supply and demand pressures. Renter Eviction Filings Remain Subdued as Average Rents Surge On September 27, Apartment List released rent estimates for September 2021 that reveal an overall monthly rental price in Pennsylvania of $1,129, an 11.5% increase from Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf COVID-19 Revenue Losses Place Some Pennsylvania Municipalities at Risk The University of Pittsburgh released a tool that estimates the potential revenue loss to Pennsylvania municipalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Researchers estimate that revenue losses range from $833 million to $3.4 billion, or a 4% to 16% reduction in total municipal Hits: 5
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdf paid a fee of $51,800 for CY 2023 compared to a fee of $69,100 for the prior year. Estimated impact: -$85.9 million. ▪ New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) collections from new wells drilled and (2 There were fewer new wells drilled in CY 2023 than any year since the initial levy of the fee (2011). Estimated impact: -$13.3 million. 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Revenues $146.3 $234.4 $278.9 $179.6 Counties, Municipalities Hits: 5
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf 6.4%, +$4,200 for new wells, total fee of $69,100) due to the annual increase in wells spud. Estimated impact: +$32.9 million. ▪ New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) collections from new wells drilled and (2 fees. The increase in new wells paying the fee more than offset the impact of aging wells paying lower fees. Estimated impact: +$11.5 million. 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Revenues $200.4 $146.3 $234.4 $278.9 Counties, Municipalities Hits: 5
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf dropping below $2.25, the impact fee schedule decreased by $5,000 per horizontal well compared to CY 2019 levels. Estimated impact: -$52.6 million. • New and Existing Wells. The net impact of fees from new wells offsetting lost collections from the first year in which collections from new wells were not enough to fully offset lost collections from aging wells. Estimated impact: -$0.2 million • Other. The net impact of (1) late or unpaid fees and (2) wells that enter or Hits: 5
IFO_PASBO_Oct_2024.pdf 4% 3.4% 2.4% Note: Job Gains are payroll jobs only, excludes self-employed. Data in blue shade are estimates or forecasts. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics. All forecasts by Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board. PA Mortgage includes home equity loans. 2024.3 data are estimates. Statewide Public School Workforce Trends GG 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 Hits: 5
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf Total 15,473 Total -27,426 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Economic Outlook U.S. and PA year-over-year 2019 wage growth remains strong  U.S. at +4.1% 599 PA Wage Income $348 Bus Net Inc $59 November 14, 2019 13 Revenue and Expenditure Outlooks Revenues above IFO estimate by $230 million through October  Adding $200m to official estimate  Strength in sales-use, escheats and personal income Hits: 5
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf in February 2023. Representative Mercuri requested recent data on Pennsylvania migration. Each year, the U.S. Census Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties and other areas. For each release, the U.S. Census Bureau updates the entire time series of estimates from the last Decennial Census (April 1, 2020) to July 1 of the current year. The 2020 Decennial Census provided Hits: 5
Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdf than 2018. Chairman Grove requested historical data on Pennsylvania international migration. Each year, the United States Census Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties, state/county equivalents, and Puerto Rico. With each annual release of population estimates, the Population Estimates Program revises and updates the entire time series of estimates from April 1, 2020 to July 1 Hits: 5
2004_srpvffinal.pdf service rendered. Although no public or private agency currently maintains complete data on the number of volunteer firefighters in Pennsylvania, estimates place the total number of volunteer firefighters in the Commonwealth between 70,000 and 75,000. 1 Three types of Sheet, Governor’s Center for Local Government Services, Department of Community and Economic Development, August 2002. -3- Nationally, it is estimated that there are currently 19,224 all-volunteer fire companies. 2 This would indicate that Pennsylvania accounts for approximately 12 Hits: 5
2002_dbdc_report.pdf Resolution Objective No. 2 – Cost Considerations “Employer cost considerations given the current fully funded status of PSERS and SERS and estimated future contribution rates pursuant to recently enacted legislation.” – House Resolution No. 266 Estimated Future Contribution Rate of SERS and PSERS Chart III displays the estimated basic employer contribution rate of both SERS and Hits: 5
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf an assumed accumulation period for the COLA contributions and a targeted amount of prefunding, expressed as a percentage of the estimated future COLA liabilities, are specified in the applicable statute. After each subsequent cost-of-living adjustment is enacted, a COLA calcu- lated, using 1) the specified prefunding percentage, 2) the liabilities of the last cost-of-living adjustment as an estimate of the probable liabilities of the next adjustment, 3) the established interest and salary assumptions and 4) the specified assumed Hits: 5
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdf increases of $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits benefit payments due to the agreement is as follows (see Table 1): • Establish the baseline or “no agreement” scenario. The estimated total wage base for FY 2020-21 is $8.2 million, and $11.5 million if benefits are included. Apply Hits: 4
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf contract is also $502, this impact is not included in the analysis. November 11, 2020 Page 2 In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits payments due to the agreement is as follows (see Table 1):  Establish the baseline or “no agreement” scenario. The estimated total wage base for FY 2020-21 is $7.6 million, and $10.8 million if benefits are included. Apply Hits: 4
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf the end of four years. ▪ Due to insufficient malt beverage tax liability and the accumulation of unused credits, the analysis estimates that nearly one half of recently awarded credits will not be utilized prior to expiration. The final section of this jobs and wages data were compa- rable to 2019. 9 As noted in footnote 7, these data are lower bound estimates and will not capture certain brewpubs and microbrewers. The Brewers of Pennsylvania website lists 193 separate members throughout the state Hits: 4
Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf separated into four categories: tax credits, spending or grants, job training programs and loan programs. The amount reported is an estimate of the dollars claimed or awarded each fiscal year. For FY 2023-24, amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and 46.8 83.2 Tax Credits and Other Incentives (Continued) Spending ($ millions) Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Notes 1. The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and Hits: 4
SR2017-05.pdf The personal income tax (PIT) impact assumes that the entire amount of household income is subject to tax. The PIT estimates in this table should be viewed as a maximum for the median incomes listed because income for some households may 55 76,927 2,986 Luzerne 208,169 104,313 50 85,297 1,223 Table 3 FY 2015-16 Estimates for Average Homestead School District Property Tax by County Revised 1/18/2018 County Property Tax Collections 1 Homestead Amount Hits: 4
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf Fund. 3 It does not include revenue projections and pension contributions for federal and state special funds. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO's Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2022). Tax revenues for FY 2028- 2022). Nontax revenues for FY 2028-29 and beyond are assumed to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the phase-in of the reduced corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. The IFO analysis also Hits: 4
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf as defined by statute. Moreover, these requests would likely not be completed until the summer months. Senator Haywood requested the estimated public assistance savings that would result from a higher minimum wage. According to the FY 2024-25 Executive Budget, the Millions of dollars. Baseline Revenues assume an annual transfer of $115 million from cigarette taxes. The balance sheet utilizes revenue estimates from the IFO's Mid-Year Update (FY 23-24 and FY 24-25) and out-year growth rates from Hits: 4
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Mastriano: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the annual loss of tax revenue associated with the elimination of property taxes – imposed by all political subdivisions - on Survey (ACS), the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). 2 The estimates apply to senior homeowners only, and exclude any property tax that may be effectively remitted by senior renters. Based on Hits: 4
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf employment had largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels (44,400, preliminary) and the average weekly salary ($606) increased by an estimated 35.4% (see table, final column). By comparison, the average weekly salary for all private payroll workers increased by 21 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Private Child Care Sector. 2023 annual average is estimated by the IFO based on data through September 2023. Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 region. The FY 2024-25 Governor Hits: 4
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf 52 Total 3,093 -2,159 934 1,574 -585 Note: Dollars in millions. Baseline contributions are pre-setoff cost estimates calculated by the IFO based on a simulation performed by SERS. Setoff schedule from official SERS-PSU agreement. Table 2 1,059 -449 Table 3: PASSHE Pre-Funding Savings Projections Note: Dollars in millions. Baseline contributions are pre-setoff cost estimates calculated by the IFO based on a simulation performed by SERS. Setoff schedule from official SERS-PASSHE agreement. Independent Fiscal Hits: 4
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and Hits: 4
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and Hits: 4
RB 2019 RACP.pdf much of the non-state spending was truly leveraged by the grant, and those amounts would greatly impact these simple estimates. For example, if the state supplied one half of the total funds for the project and (1) all non-state or were borrowed (i.e., the non-state monies would not have been used for an alternative purpose) then the estimates could be twice as large. 5 Finally, if the new project has long-term implications for the local economy, then Hits: 4
PSCOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024_Revised.pdf the details required to compute the impact of those provisions were not transmitted to the IFO. The Office of Administration estimates the four-year cost of this provision is $0.5 million. If you have any questions regarding the contents of savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied Hits: 4
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf 2020). This biweekly change represents an annual incremental increase of $416 in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits payments due to the agreement is as follows (see Table 1):  Establish the baseline or “no agreement” scenario. The estimated total wage base for FY 2020-21 is $664.2 million, and $969.5 million if benefits are included. Apply Hits: 4
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf 52.2 60.4 61.8 Home Price Index 2.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% Tax revenues exceed estimate through February (+$135 million)  Strong acceleration of estimated income tax payments in Dec-Jan (+33%)  Mini-casino license auctions strong (+$90 million), inheritance collections above estimate (+$30 Hits: 4
Pennsylvania_Tax_Incidence_Model_Methodology_2025.pdf income), nor are Medicaid and Medicare benefits. State tax incidence models have typically used one of two data sources to estimate resident incomes: federal income tax return and administrative data (used by the Cash Income metric for this model) or the Although the model uses 2022 data, an exception is made for the recently expanded child- dependent care tax credit. The estimated amount for tax year 2023 is used ($83 million) and it is allocated across income groups based on federal income Hits: 4
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf 444,000 claims and distributed $213 million in rebates. For claim year 2021 (primarily processed in CY 2022), the department estimates that 450,000 claims will be processed for a total of $351 million in rebates, including $140 million in federal accounts receivable by age, (3) timely processing of returns and refunds and (4) cost per tax return processed. The department estimates annual savings from the modernization project at $9.5 million by year ten of the contract. These savings should continue Hits: 4
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf May not reflect all of the state program's Medicaid-only service population. Source: National PACE Association. 2020 Vintage Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau. Calculations by the IFO. 2 Population per 100,000 for those 65 years old and over 21) Note: Rate is per 1,000 of the county's population age 20 to 59. Source: 2020 Vintage Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau. Calculations by the IFO. Note: Data represent the percentage of investigations with substantiated findings. South Central Hits: 4
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact coal or clay mines. Furthermore, DEP has located more than 12,100 abandoned oil and gas wells and estimates that there are approximately 200,000 more abandoned wells that have not been identified. These issues can pose significant threats to the Hits: 4
MTR-2019-07.pdf and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office \| July 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund $2,329 n.a. n.a. $2,329 n.a. n.a. Corporate Net Income 93 n Hits: 4
MRU_2024_07.pdf will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. Therefore, this update does not include comparisons to July estimates and only compares to revenues from the same month in the prior year. July revenues increased $110 million (+3.8% and were $30 million (+16.7%) above the prior year. The increase was the result of a large ($60 million) estimated payment that would typically have been remitted in June. Other tax and non-tax revenues decreased $31 million (-9.6% Hits: 4
MRU_2023_07.pdf will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Therefore, this update does not include comparisons to July estimates, and only compares to revenues from the same month in the prior year. July revenues increased $185.3 million (6 Final payments of $119.9 million (largely for tax year 2022) drove that increase ($47.5 million, 65.5%), while estimated payments (for tax year 2023) declined (-$16.1 million, -20.6%). Other tax and non-tax revenues increased $11.6 Hits: 4
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf the statutorily required inflationary adjustment (6.6%, $3,300 for new wells) due to the annual increase in wells spud. Estimated impact: +$99.8 million.  New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) reduced collections from aging wells that by 3,160 wells that entered operating year 11 and paid half the fee amount paid in operating year 10. Estimated impact: -$11.6 million. Impact Fee Update and Outlook 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Distributions $251.8 $200.4 $146 Hits: 4
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf dropping below $3.00, the impact fee schedule decreased by $5,000 per horizontal well compared to CY 2018 levels. Estimated impact: -$47.4 million.  New and Existing Wells. The net impact of fees from new wells offsetting lost collections from aging wells that pay lower fees. Estimated impact: +$9.0 million.  Other. The net impact of (1) CY 2018 remittances being overstated due to the collection Hits: 4
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf is generally based on the ownership of the group, as well as the relationships between the entities within the group. Estimating the revenue impact from combined reporting is subject to uncertainty, largely because taxing authorities lack full information regarding the characteristics Revenue for the additional resources required to administer and enforce the proposed filing regime. Revenue Impact For the purpose of estimating the potential revenue impact from combined reporting proposed in last year’s Executive Budget, the IFO surveyed reports, fiscal notes Hits: 4
House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdf Committee Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office August 30, 2021 School District Property Tax Forecast August 30, 2021 1 Actual Estimate Forecast 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Current-Year $14,276 $14 15,721 $16,282 $16,926 $17,560 $18,162 Note: Millions of dollars. 1 Actuals through FY 2020-21. Estimated at $535 thereafter. 2 Actuals unavailable for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO throughout. Source: Actuals reported by PDE. All Hits: 4
FOSCEP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf the details required to compute the impact of those provisions were not transmitted to the IFO. The Office of Administration estimates the four-year cost of these provisions is $1.1 million. If you have any questions regarding the contents of savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied Hits: 4
FOP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf the details required to compute the impact of those provisions were not transmitted to the IFO. The Office of Administration estimates the four-year cost of these provisions is $8.5 million. If you have any questions regarding the contents of savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied Hits: 4
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf have a governing board composed of legislators ▪ Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for due date shifts, one-time transfers and extra deposit day for withholding. Initial Revenue Estimate for FY 2022-23 March 4, 2022 18 Revised 2021-22 Initial 2022-23 Dollar Change Percent Change Adjusted Growth Hits: 4
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf This research brief estimates the total 2019 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal 88% 65 Statewide $21,384 2.90% -- Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Property taxes include actual current and interim and estimated delinquent school district revenues for FY 2019-20 and estimated CY 2019 county and municipal revenues. Tax burden is equal Hits: 4
CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf change represents a 0.46% increase in CIVEA total base salary. 1 The referenced salary increases represent the administration’s estimated increase in total base salary for the bargaining unit. Individual increases will vary based on the employee’s educational level 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits Hits: 4
2025_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Initial Revenue Estimate Fiscal Year 2024-25 May 20, 2024 Today’s Presentation Presentation runs ~20 minutes Posted to IFO website at end changes are year-over-year. Sales tax growth rates are pre-transfer. 2024 Q4 PA Credit Card Debt is an estimate based on U.S. data. Labor market data are seasonally adjusted and 2024.4 is preliminary. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 4
Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf contribution of $455. • The employee contribution rate for healthcare benefits will remain at 2.0% of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 0.3 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts that will be initially incurred by a state fund, but will likely be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO Hits: 3
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
UFCW_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf accounting firm. WDTC Overview \| Page 7  Life expectancy of the project, and a plan for maintenance following completion.  Estimated cost of the project.  Analysis of the direct current and future economic benefits derived from the project, including direct sold or assigned. The report must be submitted by October 1 and be posted to the department’s website. The estimated annual staff time and cost for DCED, DOR and DCNR to administer the WDTC are nominal, but those costs are Hits: 3
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf least $100 million in nonpublic companies lo- cated in rural areas of the Commonwealth or in other states. c) An estimate of the number of jobs to be created or retained in the Commonwealth that will result from the applicant’s number of jobs created and the number of jobs retained. Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit Overview \| Page 11 The estimated annual staff time and cost for DCED and DOR to administer the RJITC are currently nominal, but those costs are Hits: 3
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf the typical Pennsylvania video game production is created from applica- tions received by DCED. Based on that profile, the analysis estimates a range of direct spending that may be incentivized by the tax credit and applies various multipliers to determine the location and spending decisions. Due to the uncertainty regarding the amount of spending incentivized by the tax credit, this subsection estimates the economic impact under two scenarios: Scenario 1 (25 percent of spending is incentivized) and Scenario 2 (50 percent). For Hits: 3
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf based on the year being reported. Special fund disbursements for actual years are reported on a cash basis, while the estimate for the current fiscal year (listed as the "available" year in the financial statement) includes a budgeted amount for the 158,354 -1,350,822 -1,302,242 Source: Governor's Executive Budget, various years. Note: dollar amounts in thousands. Estimates for "available" disbursements are made during the listed fiscal year. Actual disbursements are reported in the following year. 1 Negative Hits: 3
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf Fund. 3 It does not include revenue projections and pension contributions for federal and state special funds. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2029-30 are from the IFO's Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2024). Tax revenues for FY 2030- 2024). Nontax revenues for FY 2030-31 and beyond are assumed to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the phase-in of the reduced corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. It is noted that Hits: 3
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf Fund. 3 It does not include revenue projections and pension contributions for federal and state special funds. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO's Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2023). Tax revenues for FY 2029- 2023). Nontax revenues for FY 2029-30 and beyond are assumed to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the phase-in of the reduced corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. It is noted that Hits: 3
Sen_Maj_Pol_Comm_Brain_Drain_Workshop_04_30_2019.pdf 2019 Submitted by: Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 1 Year Population Estimate Population Change 1 Births Deaths Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration Net Migration 2000 12,284,173 20 deaths (natural increase) plus net migration plus a small residual (not shown). Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates, Components of Change (Vintage 2018); U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates (Vintage 2009); and PA Dept. of Health Hits: 3
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf Office (IFO). Senator Santarsiero requested demographic data that shows net migration by county. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties and certain metro areas. For each release, the entire time series is updated from the international and dom stands for domestic. Counties ranked by total net migration. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual and Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for Counties in Pennsylvania: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022. Net Migration Hits: 3
SEIU_Local_668_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
SEIU_Local_668_UC_Referees_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
SEIU_HCPA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf 22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. May 7, 2020 Page 2 In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 2.1 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of Hits: 3
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2024.pdf 2007). 1 Source: Philadelphia Office of the Controller. See https://controller.phila.gov/philadelphia-audits/tax-year-2023- assessment-changes/. Estimate 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 Revenues Current-Interim $14,594 $15,023 $15 OFFICE PAGE 2 The table below displays a five-year history of total SD revenues by funding source and certain estimates for FY 2023-24. For FY 2022-23, SD funding was $36.7 billion, and property taxes (current-interim and Hits: 3
RTR-2014-12.pdf deposits increased by $45 million (9.9%) for the month and by $122 million (11.0%) for the fiscal year. Estimated payments for December, which are largely comprised of the last quarterly payment from corporations that file their taxes on a calendar year basis, increased by $37 million (9.6%). For the fiscal year, estimated payments increased by $102 million (12.2%).  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $130 million (17.4%) for Hits: 3
Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf retain employment and their incremental wage gains from moving the minimum wage rate to $12.00 per hour. The analysis estimates that 1.08 million workers that previously earned under $12.00 per hour (referred to as “directly affected” workers in presents the same data for workers who do not retain or secure employment due to the policy change. The analysis estimates that 34,100 positions would be eliminated through a combination of layoffs, a slower pace of hiring and leaving vacant Hits: 3
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Scavello: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed property tax rebate for homeowners in certain age and income ranges. The specified eligible homeowners based on age and income, not to exceed actual school district property taxes paid. The table below displays estimates for (1) the number of homeowners in Pennsylvania that would receive a rebate based on the aforementioned income and age Hits: 3
RB_2025_01_Childcare.pdf tax year 2022) and $95 million in FY 2023-24 (largely for tax year 2023). For FY 2024-25, the estimate is $125 million. 1 Despite the employment recovery, industry affordability and sustainability concerns remain. The cost of child care has in the table on the next page. 2 1 See 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget.pdf (February 2024). 2 Estimates for 2019 based on an average of the median price of infant, toddler and preschool care from the National Database Hits: 3
RB_2024_07_CNIT.pdf tax year 2024; older NOLs can only offset up to 40% of taxable income. The table displays the IFO static estimates for the CNIT rate reduction and higher NOL deduction threshold by tax year. Both estimates assume that corporate profits expand by 3% per annum. Notable results include: • The CNIT rate cut moves Pennsylvania from the Hits: 3
RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdf retained a hybrid or full-time work-from-home schedule. A working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that in 2022 (nationally), 20% of full workdays will be supplied from home, compared to 5% before the pandemic. 1 Reduced discretionary travel, caused by high retail prices, also contributed to the decline in gasoline consumption. The figure below displays estimates of retail spending on gasoline. The recent increase was due to the average retail price of gasoline in Pennsylvania, which Hits: 3
RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdf to 2023). Historically, once this contract is approved, other CBAs will contain similar provisions. This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the AFSCME ratified CBA apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts Independent Fiscal Office \| Research Brief \| August 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 For this preliminary estimate, the IFO utilized payroll data obtained from the state accounting system (SAP) as of July 24, 2023. Based on those Hits: 3
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdf 820 $29,820 $29,820 $447,300 2% Inflation $29,820 $27,010 $24,470 $22,160 $383,200 Actual/Estimated Inflation $29,820 $24,390 $22,090 $20,010 $349,070 Reduction in Real Value No Inflation vs 2% Inflation $0 -$2,810 -$5,350 -$7,660 -$64,100 No Inflation vs Actual/Estimated $0 -$5,430 -$7,730 -$9,810 -$98,230 Difference: Additional Erosion $0 -$2,620 -$2,380 -$2,150 -$34 Hits: 3
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf to those two factors. 4 For the lender (i.e., the federal government), the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the repayment pause cost is $5 billion per month and $195 billion total due to foregone interest payments alone. 5 Those estimates do not include additional erosion in the real value of loans due to unusually high inflation. To quantify the impact Hits: 3
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf to December 2019 (see figure). By December 2020, nearly half of that loss had been recouped. By December 2022, the estimated number of child care workers was down by 2,300 (-5% from December 2019), as the industry recovered 3,000 workers. However, providers only allocated a portion of ARPA funds to personnel costs. Based on data submitted to DHS, an estimated $607.2 million (74%) was allocated to personnel, while the remainder was designated for operational expenses (e.g., rent, utilities Hits: 3
RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf end of emergency allotments will reduce the per person monthly benefit by roughly $100, to $175. Annual SNAP benefits are estimated at $5.4 billion for CY 2022 and $4.3 billion for CY 2023 (see table, includes emergency allotments for billions) $2.57 $2.49 $3.94 $7.02 $6.00 $4.46 Note: Calendar years. CY 2022 is an estimate by IFO based on data through October. CY 2023 is a projection and includes two months of emergency allotments. Assumes Hits: 3
RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdf Pennsylvania Health Care Association, Survey: 2023 State of Pennsylvania Nursing Facilities, February 2023. 5 The waitlist is an upper bound estimate, as the same patient could potentially be on more than one waitlist. 6 Pennsylvania Department of Human Services, 2023-2024 there are 670 unique residents on a waitlist for transfer to a long-term care facility (one-third of the estimate from prior page), then the total implied extra expense would be $625 million per annum. 8 It should be noted Hits: 3
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf Income. Impact of the TCJA on PA Taxpayers Independent Fiscal Office \| Research Brief \| October 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 estimates that roughly one-half is not reported on tax returns. 2 Hence, tax data merely reflect what are reported on contractors and self-employed) is 56 percent and rental income is 51 percent. See “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011-2013,” Internal Revenue Service (September 2019). 3 The IRS state tax data include nine income groups Hits: 3
PSEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 0.9 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of Hits: 3
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf Director January 19, 2022 IFO Background and Major Releases IFO starts in 2011. Primary duty to provide General Fund revenue estimates ▪ Every January, May and June ▪ Economic trends and forecasts Each November: Five-Year Outlook ▪ General Fund revenues, expenditures, economics and 15,775 $16,370 $17,040 $17,790 $18,520 Note: Millions of dollars. 1 Actuals through FY 2021-22. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO thereafter. For more detail on Hits: 3
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf 125 districts in that group). For the bottom quartile, the average share was less than one-fifth. Table 3 displays estimates of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 60 or older, 65 or older, and 70 or older. The estimates assume that 54 percent of total school district property tax is paid by homeowners. The estimates show that homeowners age Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf slide detail Escheats -$55 much lower remittances All Other +$54 realty transfer, inheritance, GRT Total Revision +185 Over IFO official estimate Note: millions of dollars. Gains are relative to IFO official estimate released in June 2018. Sales-Use Tax Collection on Internet Sales November 19, 2018 10 15-16 16-17 17- Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf Modeled after the Congressional Budget Office.  Separate from Executive and Legislative branches. Various mandatory duties.  General Fund revenue estimates.  Coordinate pension analysis. Analyze wage contracts.  Develop Performance-Based Budget plans for agencies. Things the office does not Total 12,711 12,806 12,906 94 100 0.7% 0.8% Source: Data for 2010 (final) and 2017 (estimate) from U.S. Census Bureau. 2025 is a projection by the IFO. August.08.2018 5 2010 PA Population Distribution Hits: 3
PLEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 4.2 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. October 8, 2019 Page 3 The IFO bases this analysis on material Hits: 3
PDA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact 5 CVAP stands for citizen voting age population. 9 Data will be on a calendar year basis. DOS estimates that 2019's figure will be 42%, but that is due to DOS only printing and mailing notary commissions once a week Hits: 3
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact are realized by public entities as a result of not having to formally bid purchases. Commodity savings are estimated by comparing contract prices with the manufacturer’s suggested retail or equivalent price.  Procurement: new annual savings. This measure represents monies Hits: 3
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf payment. 2021 Q2 data for S&P 500 as of June 11 2021. 2021 Q2 home price index is an estimate based on median increase in April home sales price. Growth rates at far right are cumulative growth rates since 2019 2 = 1.0 S&P 500 PA home price index +46% +24% 1 st EIP 3 rd EIP Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22 June 17, 2021 10 Initial Estimate Dollar Change Percent Change Adjusted Growth General Fund $37,960 -$2 Hits: 3
OPEIU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 11.3 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of Hits: 3
Newsstand_January_2020.pdf School and Princeton University found that the number of tax incentives has tripled over the last thirty years. The study estimates that states are paying $30 billion per year to offer these incentives. However, it is unknown if the costs associated State Population Barely Grew in 2019 On December 30, 2019 the U.S. Census Bureau released national and state population estimates for 2019. Pennsylvania’s population grew by just 1,067 people, remaining relatively flat at 12.80 million. The population Hits: 3
Newsstand_February_2020.pdf ages over the prior year, with significant growth in the age 18-29 category (21.7%). Federal Balance of Payments Estimated for Federal Fiscal Year 2018 The Office of the New York State Comptroller released a report that examines the distribution losses would impact the agricultural industry, especially nursery operators, and fruit and Christmas tree farms. Income Tax Breaks for Seniors Estimated at $1.5 Billion The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released a report that discusses tax breaks targeted to Hits: 3
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  New federal funds available through December 2024 (much is restricted)  IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2.5 billion \| consensus it is significant Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators which the Impact Fee schedule is based. Impact Fee collections in millions of dollars, reported by the PUC, with 2020 estimated by the IFO. Average Fee Per Well computed by the IFO. March 31, 2021 15 Impact Fee Effective Tax Rates Hits: 3
MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf other agencies (Treasury, Judiciary, Legislature, etc.,) are not included in the analysis. September 20, 2019 Page 2 In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the salary increases, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits that Page 3 The All Funds column represents the total impact of the salary increases. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of Hits: 3
MER-2015-04.pdf preserve their share of the mar‐ ket. 1 Drivers in Pennsylvania should benefit from lower gaso‐ line prices this summer, estimated at approximately $2.39 per gallon for the east coast (see chart below). However, predicting gasoline prices after 2015 is usher more oil into world markets, further depress‐ ing prices in 2016. 1 In their baseline reference case, the EIA estimates that the price of crude oil will average $76 per barrel in 2018. Over that same time period, motor gasoline Hits: 3
MER-2014-04.pdf S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes state GSP data on an annual basis only. Moreover, the most recent GSP estimates typically lag current activity by one to two years. For example, the most recent estimate for Pennsylvania is for 2012. The BEA will not re‐ lease the estimate for 2013 until June 2014. Turn‐ pike Hits: 3
MER-2013-11.pdf was significantly higher than the statewide average for all private industries ($48,150). The Pennsylvania Economy League of Greater Pittsburgh estimates that the proposed ethane cracker could employ approximately 400 individu- als once fully operational. 1 The American Chemis- try Council (ACA) estimates that additional long- term employment gains from the proposed ethane www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Report N o Hits: 3
Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf who may seek to re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. For 2021 Q1, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.3 billion will be received. (For additional detail, see the IFO’s Initial Revenue Estimate released May Hits: 3
ISSU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 2019 Page 3 The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of Hits: 3
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_May_2023.pdf IFO Public Presentation The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2022-23 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. The presentation will cover recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report Hits: 3
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_2024.pdf IFO Public Presentation The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2023-24 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2024-25. The presentation will cover recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report Hits: 3
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdf IFO Public Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end Hits: 3
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2022.pdf IFO Public Presentation The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2021-22 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. The presentation will review and discuss recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues Hits: 3
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdf IFO PUBLIC BRIEFING Updated Revenue Estimates Date: Wednesday, May 26 Time: 1:00 PM R SVP Here Please register at the link above to receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. The briefing is open to the public Hits: 3
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf on November 8th, accounts for: ▪ FY 2019-20 current-interim collections published by PDE in April. ▪ Revised FY 2020-21 estimate assumes current-year collections are flat. ▪ FY 2021-22 millage rates published by PDE. ▪ Current wage projections by the IFO 15,775 $16,370 $17,040 $17,790 $18,520 Note: Millions of dollars. 1 Actuals through FY 2021-22. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO thereafter. School District Property Tax Hits: 3
FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 11.8 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of Hits: 3
CIVEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf carefully, with an eye toward reducing risk. 2 Liabilities and normal costs in this presentation are based on BEA/FRB estimates, not actuaries’ estimates. Recent years are discounted at 5%. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 “…gradually, U.S. public funds have become Hits: 3
ALES_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 1.2 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. November 6, 2019 Page 3 The IFO bases this analysis on material Hits: 3
AFSCME_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf savings would have been realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. 2 Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied dollars. Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. Analysis Hits: 3
2025tns5_Knittel.pdf called cash income that includes all forms of income received or realized by state residents during the calendar year, including estimates for amounts not reported on tax returns. 8 For 2022, total Pennsylvania cash income was $723 billion and exceeded ACS for low-income consumer units. 8 Nonreporting adjustments were based on the latest IRS tax gap study: IRS, “Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2014-2016,” IRS Pub. 1415 (rev. Oct. 2022). © 2025 Tax Analysts. All rights reserved. Tax Analysts does Hits: 3
Releases budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. Tags: economic , gas , natural Full Report Mid-Year Revenue Update FY 2024-25 January 28, 2025 \| Revenue Estimates The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year revenue update for fiscal year 2024-25 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. Video Presentation Full Report Older Newer Release Type • Revenue Hits: 3
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf submit an annual monitoring report. The report includes accom- plishments and information pertaining to the most recently completed year. The estimated annual staff time and cost to administer the ETC is as follows: 3 full-time equivalent (FTE) DOR staff ($0 STO Tax Credit was $12.0 million, the net fiscal impact of the tuition grants in that year is an estimated $12.6 million. 25 “Iowa’s School Tuition Organization Tax Credit: Tax Credits Program Evaluation Study,” Iowa Department of Revenue Hits: 2
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011-2013” (IRS, September 2019). Tax Comparison Study Page 2 The U.S. Census Bureau compiles annual data on Hits: 2
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008-2010” (IRS, April 2016). Tax Comparison Study Page 2 The U.S. Census Bureau compiles annual data on Hits: 2
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 the local level. 3 See http://www.census.gov/govs/statetax/. 4 See http://www.census.gov/govs/estimate/. 5 See http://www.census.gov/govs/state/. 6 See http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats---Historic-Table-2. 7 Hits: 2
SR2017-03.pdf See “Effective Federal Tax Rates, 1979 to 1997” (Congressional Budget Office, October 2001) and “Tax Foundation State-Local Tax Burden Estimates: An Overview of Methodology” (Tax Foundation, Working Paper 10, March 2014). The adjustments are based on data from state tax or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008–2010” (IRS, May 2016). Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The U.S Hits: 2
SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx impact of a change in payment methods. 3 School Property Tax index includes delinquent taxes. FY 2012-13 is an estimate. 4 Regional CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 of a change in payment methods. 3 School Property Tax growth rates include delinquent taxes. FY 2012-13 is an estimate. 4 Regional CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-06.pdf in annual payments. • Corporate net income tax revenues in June increased by $38 million (8.8%) from the prior year. Estimated payments were $61 million (18.0%) higher than last June, but the three-month growth rate for the tax is revenues increased by $68 million (6.6%) for the month. Withholding receipts grew by $23 million (3.4%) and quarterly estimated payments increased by $2 million (0.8%). Annual payments increased by $43 million (51.5%) due to an interfund transfer Hits: 2
RB_2024_11_Treasury.pdf 24, a gain of nearly $700 million compared to pre-Covid amounts. The table also displays the IFO’s latest estimates for Treasury collections for FY 2024-25 and FY 2025-26 (from the IFO’s November 2024 Five-Year Economic 24 and later years exclude large deposits not associated with interest earned on the fund balance. Shaded years are IFO estimates. Treasury Collections and Interest Rates CreationDate: 2024-11-25 19:04:28 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024- Hits: 2
RB_2024_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf 2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) to estimate the 2022 homeowner-renter property tax burden by county. The homeowner-renter property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which portion is likely exported outside the county and state. Notable results include: ▪ Pennsylvania homeowners and rental property owners paid an estimated $18.4 billion in property taxes statewide, which represented 2.45% of total income. That property tax amount is net Hits: 2
RB_2024_05_Treasury.pdf FY 2022-23, up dramatically from $23 million in FY 2021-22. The table also displays the IFO’s latest estimates for Treasury collections for FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25 (preliminary). Based on the current General Fund balance and equal to actual collections divided by the General Fund Average Daily Balance. FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25 are estimated. High Interest Rates Drive Treasury Collections CreationDate: 2024-05-02 13:53:15 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate Hits: 2
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdf The U.S. Census Bureau recently released state population estimates for July 1, 2022. The Census Bureau estimates that from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022, the state population contracted by 30,680. (See table.) The contraction Hits: 2
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) to estimate the 2021 property tax burden by county. For all counties, the property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which reduced 2020 because income growth significantly outpaced property tax growth in all counties due to large federal stimulus programs and an estimated 70% increase in capital gains income. If temporary COVID-19 stimulus funds are excluded, then the statewide property tax burden Hits: 2
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf yet available for 2022. Top 5 Electricity Exporters Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 In 2022, Pennsylvania electricity generators emitted an estimated 73 million tons of carbon dioxide, a 4.9% decrease from 2018. The other top five electricity exporters recorded larger 83 West Virginia 67 56 60 49 0.90 0.87 Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2022 emissions are estimated by the IFO based on 2022 generation. Carbon Emissions from Electricity Generation Notes: Generation in million megawatt hours. Emissions in Hits: 2
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdf age cohorts recorded modest job gains during that time. 1 The second set of figures in the table shows the estimated change in population by age group. Two age groups recorded significant gains due to the aging of Baby Boomers (age 65 to 74 group) and the large Millennial generation that displaced the smaller Generation X (age 35 to 44). Overall, estimated population for residents age 19 to 74 declined by 31,400 (-0.3%). 1 Excludes workers age 14 to 18 Hits: 2
RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdf for a household of 2 ($36,624 annual) and $4,626 for a household of 4 ($55,512 annual). DHS estimates that 174,000 new households will qualify for SNAP due to the higher income limit, and under the ongoing federal PHE, they would qualify for the maximum benefit. The department estimates that the average new household that qualifies has 2.4 members. Effective October 1, under the ongoing federal PHE, new Hits: 2
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf fees. 1 Similarly, SERS testified that net-of-fee returns for July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021 are an estimated 28%. The official rates of return will not be finalized for several months, and new actuarial projections will not be 2 Table 2: Share of General Fund Revenues for Employer Pension Contributions Note: Dollars in millions. SERS General Fund portion estimated by the IFO and excludes COVID-19 relief funds. FYE 2020 General Fund revenues increased by approximately $2.0 billion Hits: 2
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf income from personal income. Income patterns were dramatically impacted by temporary COVID-19 pandemic relief programs. For 2021, the BEA estimates that $52 billion was disbursed to county residents and business owners through various programs including unemployment compensation (UC, $16 billion business loans to each county. This share was then applied to the BEA statewide total of $3.8 billion to estimate county-level breakouts. These amounts do not include loans to C corporations and S corporations, which are not included in Hits: 2
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf Department of Education (PDE) and focuses on changes that impact FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2023-24 are from the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2027-28 are 2023). Nontax revenues for FY 2028-29 and beyond are assumed to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the reduction of the corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. 1 See: Stress Testing Analysis: Pennsylvania Hits: 2
PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf Note: Property tax includes current and interim collections and Act 1 allocations, excludes delinquent collections. FY 2019-20 figures are estimates by the IFO. Average Annual Growth 2005-20 2010-20 Income 3.5% 3.9% Sales 2.6% 3.9% Property Tax to Income. Income excludes any capital gains. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2018 1-Year Estimates. Computations by IFO. CreationDate: 2020-03-13 15:26:03 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate: 2020-03-13 15:29 Hits: 2
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf This research brief estimates the total 2020 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal 2019 because income growth significantly outpaced property tax growth in all counties due to large federal stimulus programs and an estimated 20% increase in capital gains income. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office \| Research Brief \| September 2022 Independent Fiscal Hits: 2
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $1.71 billion in the upcoming fiscal year. The mandatory (also referred to as the cost-to-carry) and non-mandatory expenditures. The potential FY 2019-20 imbalance is estimated at $1.48 billion if the financial statement incorporated only mandatory expenditures.  Over the last four years of the Hits: 2
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf due to different data source. Share is percentage outflow. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. Persistent Tax Base Erosion 7/14/2017 16 Personal Income Tax.  Wage income less important. Larger share of income 4.3% Note: shares of Pennsylvania “Current Income” as described by the IFO in the methodology to its official revenue estimate.. Source: Historical data from the IRS, U.S. Census Bureau, Social Security Administration and the U.S. Department of Labor Hits: 2
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf Revenue Growth • Capital Stock & Franchise Tax Phased‐Out • Recent Reliance on One‐Time Revenues May 13, 2016 8 IFO Revenue Estimates 2015‐16 2016‐17 Amount Growth Amount Growth General Fund $31,022 1.4% $31,586 1.8% Corporate Net Economic and Budget Outlook 10 May 13, 2016 All Demographic Projections from Penn State Data Center. Reflects U.S. Census Estimates for 2015 • Large Wave of Retirements Next Decade • Demographic Changes Contribute to Tax Base Erosion • Health Care Costs Help Drive Hits: 2
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Erosion. 3 Today’s Presentation 12.May.2016 Demographic Trends All Projections from Penn State Data Center Reflects US Census Estimates for 2015 Working Age Population Projected to Decline Demographic Wave: Retirements Next Decade 4 12.May.2016 Number of Residents Hits: 2
PICPA_Presentation.pdf 3% 15.6% Note: All growth rates are year-over-year. Wage growth for 2017 Q1 and Q2 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in gain = $3.6 billion; average gain = $2,770.  Roughly 54,000 reduced employment opportunities. Other potential impacts:  DHS estimates a $232 million reduction for Medical Assistance.  Higher employer payroll taxes of $265 million.  Less employee turnover? Higher Hits: 2
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf due to different data source. Share is percentage outflow. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. II. Economic Trends  U.S. and PA economic growth downshifts.  Similar to Japan and Europe.  Much due than 3 persons, add $4,160 per additional person. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: lrompalo@hotmail.com CreationDate: 2017-05-25 11:58:48 ModDate: 2017-05-25 11:58 Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf efficiencies; reduced error rates ▪ Ability to file Property Tax and Rent Rebate (PTRR) claims electronically began for claim year 2020 (estimated 17% electronic filing in claim year 2021) Customer Experience Center (CEC) is primary call center ▪ Avg. CEC call wait time income, older residents or residents age 18+ with disabilities ▪ $213 million for claim year 2020 (distributed in 2021) ▪ $351 million estimated for claim year 2021 (includes $140 million from federal ARPA dollars) January 10, 2023 5 CreationDate: 2023-01-10 02 Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf share of spending is incentivized by the tax credit? ▪ What type of spending and industries are affected? ▪ Use IMPLAN to estimate jobs, output and “multiplier” impacts Economic metrics for NAP, EEEP and VGP ▪ Gross ROI vs. net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ Output or spending \| labor earnings \| number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Keys: incentivization parameter, “leakages” and “injections” April 26, 2021 2 Some Notes on the Return Hits: 2
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality, National Survey on Drug Use and Health, Quarters 1 and 4, 2020. 6 Source: Estimated by U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Department of Labor, Total Lost Productivity Due to Opioid by Type (FY 2021-22) Source: Expenditure data from DDAP. County population data from U.S. Census Bureau 2021 Population Estimates. Calculations by the IFO. $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 Chester Carbon/Monroe Hits: 2
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Grant data provided by PEMA. 2 SBA applicants are the number of loans approved followed by a roughly estimated number of properties involved. 3 Pennsylvania state grants. 4 Disaster Recovery is a mitigation program where PEMA receives a federal sub-grant Hits: 2
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx has 3 steps ▪ Determine the amount/share of spending incentivized ▪ Determine type of spending and industries affected ▪ Use IMPLAN to estimate multiplier effects, jobs, tax revenues Economic metrics for MTBI, RDTC and KIZ ▪ Gross ROI and net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ GDP \| labor earnings \| number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Key : incentivization parameter \| use consensus of existing research January 23, 2020 3 Organ and Bone Hits: 2
NGPR_2024_Q4.pdf year. The Next 5 Counties groups includes Tioga, Westmoreland, Butler, Wyoming and Allegheny counties. Source: Natural Gas Intelligence. 2025 Q1 estimated by the IFO. Note: Dollars per MMBtu. $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6 fee schedule. If the average monthly Henry Hub price had exceeded $2.25 for the year, then that would increase estimated Impact Fee collections by roughly $30 million. Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state Hits: 2
NFIB_Feb_2025.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Initial Revenue Estimate Fiscal Year 2024-25 May 20, 2024 Latest PA Economic Trends Slide 2 Economic Forum -February 2025 YOY Growth Rate changes are year-over-year. Sales tax growth rates are pre-transfer. 2024 Q4 PA Credit Card Debt is an estimate based on U.S. data. Labor market data are seasonally adjusted. Employment includes self-employed; Payroll Jobs does not. Source Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf a 15% decline from the prior year, and the lowest annual NYMEX price recorded since 2016. In July, the IFO estimated that if the average NYMEX price for 2019 settled below $3.00, then Impact Fee collections would decline by $37 sector. BEA Releases GDP by County For the first time, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released county-level estimates of GDP from 2001 to 2018. In 2018, Philadelphia had the largest real GDP ($110.7 billion) of all Pennsylvania Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf of spending, including food (59.3%), utilities and telecommunications (44.3%) and household supplies and personal care (43.6%). An estimated 20.7% of households reported using the stimulus payments to meet spending needs within seven days of being interviewed. One- continues to decline from a record high of 16.1% in April 2020. Pennsylvania nonfarm-payroll employment grew by an estimated 231,500 jobs (4.5%) since May. When compared to June 2019, nonfarm-payroll employment fell by 620,300 jobs Hits: 2
MER-2015-02.pdf job creation is important, the types of jobs creat‐ ed has economic implications too. Since 2009, the U.S. BLS estimates that employment in Pennsylvania increased by 168,100 jobs (3.0%). 1 Most employment growth during this time period occurred 2014 use preliminary December data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Average Annual Wage in 2014 from estimates provided by IHS Economics using Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Author: kmaynard CreationDate: 2015-03-03 15:16:35 Creator Hits: 2
MER-2015-01.pdf permanent increase in their disposable income, and will be more inclined to spend the savings. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that consumer savings from lower gasoline prices could range from $3.0 to $3.5 billion for the current fiscal year. 2 Although the benefit to businesses is harder to quantify, the IFO estimates roughly $1.5 to $2.0 bil- lion of savings. The business savings could increase profits, or be passed through Hits: 2
MER-2014-06.pdf grew by 0.7 percent from $599.5 billion in 2012 to $603.9 billion in 2013, according to revised estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This is less than the 1.8 percent growth for U growth, 5.8% of GSP) and government (0.1% growth, 10.5% of GSP). BEA recently revised its methodology for estimating state GSP. The latest revision re Ðlects comprehen‐ sive changes to state GSP for 1997‐2012 and in‐ cludes various Hits: 2
Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf who may seek to re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. For 2021 Q1, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.8 billion has been received. Based on the latest data for May 2021, Pennsylvania payroll job creation Hits: 2
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf n.a. (46,630) Notes: Dollar amounts in thousands. Excludes the impact of late or disputed payments. Source: Well counts estimated using data from the Public Utility Commission. 1 Difference from the base collections ($238 million, shown in Table 2) before Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet using Pennsylvania-specific heat content. 5. Post-production cost estimates for wet and dry wells are informed by investor presentations for several regional producers. 6. See 58 Pa.C.S Hits: 2
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf n.a. (44,893) Notes: Dollar amounts in thousands. Excludes the impact of late or disputed payments. Source: Well counts estimated using data from the Public Utility Commission. 1 Difference from the base collections ($221 million, shown in Table 2) before Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet using Pennsylvania-specific heat content. 4. Post-production cost estimates for wet and dry wells are informed by a Range Resources investor presentation. 5. See 58 Pa.C.S. § 2302 Hits: 2
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf Schedule 0 40,226 Notes: Dollar amounts in thousands. Excludes late or disputed payments from prior years. Source: Well counts estimated using data from the Public Utility Commission. 1 Re Ðlects change in revenues from (1) more wells subject to impact noted that many producers hedge prices for a large share of their production (e.g., swaps). 4. Post‐production cost estimates for wet and dry wells are informed by a Range Resources investor presentation from October 3, 2016. 5. See 58 Hits: 2
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf 963 2,286 323 16.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2010 are final. Data for 2017 are estimates and detail is an IFO projection. Jan.25.2018 3 Independent Fiscal Office Future Demographics: 2017 to 2025 PA Residents or older 2,286 2,821 535 23.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2017 and 2025 are estimates from the IFO Economic and Budget Outlook (Nov. 2017). Jan.25.2018 4 Independent Fiscal Office Multiple Factors Drive PA Hits: 2
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf additional information on states that have legalized recreational marijuana and associated costs arising from legalization that are external to revenue estimates. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) reviewed various studies from four states that were early enactors of recreational marijuana legalization. These Oregon (2014) and California (2016). While state revenue collections from recreational marijuana are well-documented, states are generally unable to estimate the costs of externalities associated with legalized adult use. This response focuses on areas where states have noted a change Hits: 2
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Grove requested an estimated breakdown of the IFO reviewed wage contracts by department. Please see the attached table. Representative Brown requested property tax burden 6 94.9 128.0 310.3 Other 2 3.0 6.4 10.2 13.8 33.4 Notes: ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENTS 1 1 Bargaining Units included are the following: American Federation of State, County and Municipal Hits: 2
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROI 2022 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference October 24, 2022 Background: Independent Fiscal Office Created by Act 120 of 2010 and began operations have a governing board composed of legislators ▪ Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2024_Final.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Initial Revenue Estimate Fiscal Year 2024-25 May 20, 2024 Today’s Presentation Report and PowerPoint posted to IFO website at conclusion. Demographics of dollars. For FY 24-25, excludes $95 million in reduced spending from the fall update. Expenditures are reduced by estimated prior year lapses. Policy Drives Deterioration in Deficit Outlook Slide 14 Economic and Budget Outlook 23-24 24-25 25- Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf 20.8% Total 12,994 12,995 12,974 0 0.0% -21 -0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Estimates and projections by the IFO. PA Older Adult Population November 15, 2023 4 Age Number Residents (000s) Change 2020-25 13.8% Total 4,263 4,412 4,450 148 3.5% 38 0.9% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Estimates and projections by the IFO. Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts November 15, 2023 5 COVID Revert Long-Term 2021 2022 2023 2024 Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf Cash Income Growth Very Strong January 21, 2021 10 Source: Various state and federal agency websites. See IFO Official Revenue Estimate Methodology (June 2020). Disconnect: Labor Market vs Other PA Indicators January 21, 2021 11 Economic Negatives Economic Positives Payroll Jobs payments and extra withholding day, but includes one-time transfers from special funds. Corporate Net Income: Policy, Shifts and Behavior Estimated payment pattern in 2020 highly unusual  March +3% \| June -31% \| September -5% \| December +35% Short-term factors  Likely Hits: 2
Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdf retail sales of electricity to all sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation) within the state, (2) direct use electricity and (3) estimated line losses. Net exports are equal to net generation less total consumption. 1 For 2021, Pennsylvania exported more megawatt hours 3 - Electricity Generation Carbon Dioxide Emissions Generation Emissions Emissions per Unit Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2021 Emissions are estimated by the IFO based on 2021 generation and 2020 emissions per unit. Author: Matthew Knittel Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft Hits: 2
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf administering the plan and the trust shall be paid by the Commonwealth through annual appropriations, made on the basis of estimates from the board. § 5816. Tax qualification. (a) Required distributions.--All payments under this chapter shall start and be made in member prepared by the State Employees' Retirement Board for the periods ending December 31, 2018, and any other statements or estimates of benefits prepared by the board pursuant to the State Employees' Retirement Code from the effective date of this section Hits: 2
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf created is important, the types of jobs created is equally significant. Since 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that net jobs in Pennsylvania have in- creased by 139,700 jobs (2.5%). 1 The job growth during this 756.6 139.7 $49,100 Job Growth and Average Annual Wages by Various Job Sectors 1 Jobs in 2013 estimated by IHS Global Insight based in the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Author: kmaynard Hits: 2
2002_drop_report.pdf local government pension plans, Pennsylvania has four times as many local government pension plans as any other state, and is estimated to have more than 25 percent of the total number of public pension plans in the United States. Moreover, Pennsylvania tions which are, in the judgment of the actuary and the governing body of the 5 plan, the best available estimate of future occurrences in the case of each 6 assumption. With respect to economic actuarial assumptions, the assumptions 7 shall Hits: 2
WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf State liquid fuels taxes down in FY19-20, projected to decline further in FY20-21.  IFO to release report estimating local revenue losses (county, municipal, school). Recent Trends – Decline and Deceleration July 14, 2020 10 2018 2019 2020 Q4 Q1 Hits: 1
WC-2019-UFCW.pdf realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. Source: Office of Administration. 2/ Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied Hits: 1
WC-2019-SEIU.pdf realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. Source: Office of Administration. 2/ Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied Hits: 1
WC-2019-AFSCME.pdf realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. Source: Office of Administration. 2/ Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied Hits: 1
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf 9&step=1. Extension of Federal Payroll Tax Cut millions of dollars PA OASDI taxes paid, 2008 29,242 PA estimated OASDI taxes, 2012 30,704 Reduction to OASDI tax rate -16% Full-year impact on disposable income 4,952 Impact Hits: 1
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf other related entities, the report must also include recommendations for changes in the calculation of the credit. DOR and DCED estimate that the annual staff time and costs to administer the PRM Tax Credit are currently nominal. 4 A downstream company Hits: 1
Tax_Modernization_Mar_2024.pdf Amount $5.14 $0.81 Revenue: 1% tax $0.05 $0.01 Major Tax Credits Tax Modernization & Reform Slide 7 Estimate 2023 Notes Tax Forgiveness ~$220 Two-thirds to <$20k taxable income Resident Credit ~$500 Tax paid to other states Child Hits: 1
Supplemental_Table.pdf Revenue Estimate Comparison Detail IFO Mid-Year Executive Budget IFO less Exec Budget 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 2017- Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2025_02.pdf or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2014-2016” (IRS, October 2022). 2 Tax data for state liquor store profits and lottery are from Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2014-2016” (IRS, August 2022). Tax Comparison Study Page 2 The U.S. Census Bureau compiles annual Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011-2013” (IRS, September 2019). State Tax Comparison Page 2 The U.S. Census Bureau compiles annual Hits: 1
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf  Independent nonpartisan agency. • Began operations in September 2011. • Analyze fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  Office Hits: 1
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf and Philadelphia from base expansion ($100-$200 million).  Corporate Net Income ($30-$40 million).  Not included in revenue estimates since they do not affect revenue neutrality of proposal. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of Hits: 1
RTR-2015-01.pdf because two due dates that fell in January 2014 occur in different months this fiscal year (December and February). Quarterly estimated payments increased by $15 million (4.1%) for the month and $51 million (5.8%) for the fiscal-year-to- Hits: 1
RTR-2014-10.pdf are largely from corporations that obtained extensions for tax returns originally due in April, decreased by $14 million (-15.4%). Estimated payments decreased by $9 million (-20.1%) compared to the prior year.  Personal income tax revenues increased by $32 Hits: 1
RTR-2014-03.pdf month. Most of the increase was in final payments, which were $51 million (41.0%) higher than the prior year. Estimated payments increased by $12 million (5.0%).  Other corporate taxes decreased by $125 million (-6.2%) for the month Hits: 1
RTR-2013-10.pdf million) and the personal income tax ($29 million).  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $3 million (2.4%). Estimated payments for the month declined by $28 million (38.9%), but final payments more than offset that decline with an Hits: 1
Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf resulting shift of revenue compared to last year’s pattern will weaken reported revenue growth in February. o Strong quarterly estimated payments resulted in an increase of $54 million (15.2%) in nonwithholding revenues.  Sales and use tax collections were Hits: 1
Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf increase is attributable to payments made with annual returns, which increased by $211 million (27.1%). Employer withholding and quarterly estimated payments posted only modest gains.  Sales and use tax collections displayed continuing weakness, declining by $25 million (-3.2% Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Scavello: This letter responds to a request made by your office to provide an additional estimate related to an analysis transmitted by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on August 16, 2019. 1 The new request provides Hits: 1
RB_2025_02_Long-Term_Budget_Outlook.pdf proposed initiatives (e.g., regulate skill games and recreational use marijuana and changes to the corporate net income tax, as estimated by the Executive Budget) reduces the deficit to $2.1 billion in FY 27-28. The second projection is the Hits: 1
RB_2024_12_Gasoline_Revenue_Update.pdf Sep Oct Nov Dec PA Gasoline Consumption (million gallons) Source: Pennsylvania Department of Revenue. The dashed portion of 2024 is estimated by the IFO. 2019 Pre-Covid 2020 Covid 2024 2023 2024 gallons down 9% from 2019 24.9 25.4 Hits: 1
RB_2024_10_Act_1.pdf on the next page displays county detail for allocations in FY 2024-25, the number of eligible recipients and the estimated average reduction per recipient. The homestead/farmstead counts are based on FY 2023-24 final General Fund budgets submitted to Hits: 1
RB_2024_09_County_Income_Patterns.pdf were 1 Forest County (white) was excluded from the dataset because a significant proportion (approximately 40%) of the Census population estimate is institutionalized, which produced artificially low per capita personal income data. Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Chester (8.0%) and Hits: 1
RB_2024_06_Revenues_Spending.pdf 24) billion and prior year lapses. Sources: FY 18-19 from 2020-21 Governor's Executive Budget. FY 23-24 estimated by the IFO. CreationDate: 2024-06-26 01:48:14 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024-06-26 Hits: 1
RB_2024_04_Older_Workers.pdf 200 (+0.9%) in the QWI database. Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau. 2023 age groups is an estimate by IFO based on 2022 age data published by U.S. Census. CreationDate: 2024-04-17 13:25:14 Creator Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Jobs_Revised.pdf seasonally adjusted data are used to eliminate revisions caused by changes to seasonal adjustment factors, which have been difficult to estimate since 2020. 2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revised Down 53,400 Independent Fiscal Office \| Research Brief \| March 2024 2023 PA Payroll Hits: 1
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf withholding tax revenue growth is as follows: 4.4% (2023 Q3), 4.2% (2023 Q4) and 4.0% (2024 Q1, estimate based on two months). The withholding and jobs data also provide general insights into average wage gains. For example, if Hits: 1
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf Federal revenues declined at an average rate of 4.2% per annum from FY 2018-19 to FY 2023-24 (estimate based preliminary data) and will be 19.1% lower than FY 2018-19 if current trends hold. The state collects Hits: 1
RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdf unique households and may include an unknown number of duplicates. Figures that use these data should be considered upper bound estimates and may overstate the number of unique households impacted. 6 See: United States Treasury Department, Emergency Rental Assistance Program. $13 Hits: 1
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf as defined by statute. The ratio of Act 89 Liquid Fuels (gasoline) and Fuels (diesel) revenue collections is used to estimate the gasoline portion of any revenue category that contains combined gasoline and diesel collections. 2 Act 35 of 1981, Act Hits: 1
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf 2022. The administration could extend the moratorium prior to expiration, but extension entails significant federal costs. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the moratorium costs the federal government $4.3 billion each month, or $52 billion each year. 2 Moreover, a Hits: 1
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf 2 and the 2016 raw data for Philadelphia County. Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2016-19. (Web) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income Summary, 2016-19. (Web) Independent Fiscal Office Page 6 Hits: 1
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf liability of $368 million, while a one-half assumption yields $551 million. For the purpose of its June Official Revenue Estimate and October Update, the IFO had assumed that all loans would be forgiven and would be non-taxable. If that Hits: 1
RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdf shown. Effective Rate is equal to actual collections divided by the General Fund Average Daily Balance. FY 2023-24 is estimated. High Interest Rates Drive Treasury Collections CreationDate: 2023-09-25 14:15:14 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate Hits: 1
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf were less impacted by COVID-19. 9 It is noted that the overall reduction applied to each county reflects an estimate of foregone revenues for the current calendar or school year. Some of those missed payments will be received in later Hits: 1
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf or average income level of $57,400 for 2018. Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, 2016-18. (Web) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income Summary, 2016-18. (Web) Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Hits: 1
RB-2016-02.pdf in this report, the following resources are available: Pennsylvania Executive Budget (budget.pa.gov/PublicationsAndReports/CommonwealthBudget) Includes background information and estimates for tax expenditures. Provides detailed expenditure information by agency, program and funding source for each department. Includes program performance measures Hits: 1
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf or average income level of $55,000 for 2017. Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, 2015-17. (Web) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income Summary, 2015-17. (Web) Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Hits: 1
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf Department of Education (PDE) and focuses on changes that impact FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-52. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2024-25 are from the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2028-29 are Hits: 1
PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf through FYE 2050.  One increment (0.75 ppt) applied to one-half of the projection period would change the estimated risk mitigation by 11 ppts. 6/28/2017 7 Act 5 Benefit Comparisons 35 Years 25 Years 15 Years Percentage Hits: 1
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $0.99 billion in the upcoming fiscal year. The Hits: 1
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf 647 $29,073 Plus: Policy Changes $0 $82 Total $28,647 $29,155 Percent Change 3.5% 1.8% Official Estimate (June 2013) $28,647 $29,116 Percent Change 3.5% 1.6% Dollar Difference $0 $39 fiscal years, millions of Hits: 1
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf profits possible weakness 3.Dec.2014 FY 14-15 Revenues Remain Unclear Description Amount Gains Through November Relative to IFO Estimate $135 Plus: Delayed Liquor Store Profits Deposit 80 Less: Projected Casino Fees -75 Adjusted Revenue Gain 140 At Risk: Oil Hits: 1
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf Total Revenues 4,628 3,822 4,041 4,599 5,159 Dollar amounts are in millions. Title: Initial Revenue Estimate Author: Lauren Mondschein CreationDate: 2015-06-22 11:55:06 ModDate: 2015-06-22 11:55:06 Producer: Microsoft® PowerPoint Hits: 1
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf 256 Costs for Childcare/Direct Care $21 $114 Costs for CHIP $6 $23 Net State Spending -$36 -$119 Source: All estimates provided by PA Department of Human Services. Higher Minimum Wage Should Expand Economy A $3.5 billion net income transfer Hits: 1
Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf base) excludes internet sales: (1) ecommerce/nexus, (2) digital downloads and (3) marketplace sales. For FY 2018-19, the IFO estimates that internet sales collections from all three sources total $600 million. Sources: Independent Fiscal Office, U.S. Bureau of Labor Hits: 1
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf 20.3% Trucking = +19.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Includes overtime and bonuses. 2022 Q4 is an estimate. PA State and Local Average Tax Rates April 19, 2023 13 Tax Source % Total Tax State Rank PA Avg Tax Hits: 1
Pirates_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf 2012 to 2019 (prior to Covid, includes seasons with playoffs). Based on the assumptions noted in the report, the analysis estimates that direct fan spending could increase by up to $76 million. That amount does not reflect any multiplier effects (i Hits: 1
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf 0 billion Note: Lost labor income includes wages ($20.8b), self-employed income ($3.2b) and tips ($1.5b). IFO estimate. PA Consumer Spending Holds Up, But Recent Weakness November 18, 2020 3 Source: tracktherecovery.org PA Jobs Recover Through July Hits: 1
Phillies_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf Jobs Supported 5,450 State Taxes $45 Personal Income $16 Sales & Use $22 Other $7 The report concludes with an estimate of the impact that recent attendance gains had on fan spending. Based on as- sumptions noted in the report, the Hits: 1
PEW_Presentation(Video).pptx include… • A description of the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design and administration • An estimate of the incentive’s economic and fiscal impact • Policy recommendations pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Indiana pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation Hits: 1
PEW_Presentation(Video).ppsx include… • A description of the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design and administration • An estimate of the incentive’s economic and fiscal impact • Policy recommendations pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Indiana pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf to firms where the credit is the decisive factor in the location decision ▪ At this time, IFO unable to reliably estimate the true incentivization parameter and whether the breakeven threshold is met ▪ Can be revisited for next round of tax credit Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf significantly in FY 20-21 ▪ Total pounds for SFPP up 85%, PASS up 260% compared to 19-20 ▪ Early national estimates show food insecurity did not rise in 2020 \| Likely due to stimulus and increased food assistance January 26, 2022 9 Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf 2021 was 6.8%, up from 4.5% in CY 2019 ▪ Figures do not include PUA fraud, which the IFO estimates at 20.6% in 2020 January 24, 2022 7 DLI Metric Highlights (Continued) Will new technology improve efficiency and outcomes Hits: 1
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Hits: 1
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Hits: 1
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Hits: 1
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Hits: 1
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf 7 billion Note: Lost labor income includes wages ($20.8b), self-employed income ($3.2b) and tips ($1.5b). IFO estimate. PA Consumer Spending Holds Up, But Recent Weakness December 9, 2020 3 Source: tracktherecovery.org PA Payroll Jobs: April Peak Hits: 1
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf high correlation with the elementary-secondary school ECI IFO plans to update and re-release projection in fall  Good estimate for 2021 wage growth at that time March 17, 2021 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo Hits: 1
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf rates or changes are year-over-year except Real GDP. Wage growth rates for 2021.2 and 2021.3 are estimates by IFO based on withholding data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Hits: 1
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf 1 EIP 2+3 Refundable CTC $ billions Executive Budget - Major Policy Initiatives March 13, 2023 11 Area or Policy Description (estimates from Executive Budget) Basic Education Increase $567m (+7.8%) Special Education Increase $104m (+8.4%) State Police Funding Phase-out Hits: 1
Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be Hits: 1
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be Hits: 1
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be Hits: 1
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q4.pdf Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production does not directly correspond to DEP data. For CY 2019, December production is estimated by the IFO. All Other New Mexico West Virginia Colorado Wyoming Ohio Louisiana Oklahoma Alaska Pennsylvania Texas 0 5,000 Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q3.pdf that could produce at some point in the future). These graphs pertain only to horizontal wells. Figures for 2019 are estimates based on year-to-date spud and production data published by DEP and forecasts by Bentek Energy. Figures for 2012 Hits: 1
NGPR-2018Q4.pdf composition of total U.S. production by state over the last decade. Production for December 2018 in Figure 6 is estimated by the IFO. State Comparison Figure 6: State Production Comparison (bcf) Table 6: State Production Comparison (bcf) Production Volume Annual Hits: 1
NGPR-2018Q3.pdf at some point in the future). These graphs pertain only to horizontal production and well counts. Figures for 2018 are estimates based on year-to-date spud and production data published by DEP and forecasts by Bentek Energy. Figures for 2011 Hits: 1
NGPR-2017Q4.pdf 1 4,088.3 3,771.4 -0.5% -9.4% -7.8% Notes: Data for 2017 through November. December estimated by IFO. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production does not directly correspond to DEP data. 0 5,000 10 Hits: 1
NGPR-2016Q4.pdf 247.4 1,266.4 1,296.5 1,282.4 -1.1% Notes: Data for 2016 through November. December estimated by IFO. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production does not directly correspond to DEP data. Table 10 displays a Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_October.pdf to decline. Americans Pay about 86% of Federal Taxes Owed On September 26, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released new estimates on taxpayer compliance. It report- ed an annual gap of $381 billion between taxes owed and taxes collected. The analysis Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf robust total wage and salary growth (4.8%), which ranked 10 th in the nation. -July 2018 - National News Latest Estimate for 2018 Q2 U.S. Real GDP Growth is 4.5% On July 18, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_December.pdf well impact fee schedule will be higher than if the price was below that threshold. In June 2018, the IFO estimated impact fee revenues of $235 million if the average price exceeded $3.00. If the price fell below that threshold Hits: 1
MTR-2017-08.pdf Opioid abuse also reduces worker productivity and increases the utilization of medical and sick leave. Opioid abuse in Pennsylvania was estimated to trigger at least $874 million in additional health care costs annually. 5 However, a more recent study by Pew Hits: 1
MTR-2017-05.pdf 0% in 2017 Q1 on a year-over-year basis. 2 A final factor could be weak business spending. Analysts estimate that business purchases may comprise one-third of the PA sales tax base. Unfortunately, state- level business profit or purchases Hits: 1
MTR-2017-03.pdf consumers with a credit report in each state to yield total debt. Number of consumers for 2016 is an IFO estimate. Total debt figures include HELOC and other loans. Source: FRBNY. United States Pennsylvania Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar- Hits: 1
MTR-2017-01.pdf no new homes were added to the market. National data reflect similar trends as Pennsylvania. The National Association of Realtors estimates that the U.S. median sales price increased by 7.7% in 2016. 1 The national inventory of homes declined Hits: 1
MTR-2016-12.pdf rates. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Pennsylvania State Data Center, “Research Brief: 2016 National and State Population Estimates Released,” December 21, 2016. United States Pennsylvania Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov- Hits: 1
MTR-2016-06.pdf declined (-1.1%) year-over- year, while personal income tax (PIT) collections exhibited unexpected weakness for withholding (0.9%) and estimated payments (-11.4%). Positive signs from June include gains in corporate tax payments (8.6%) and realty transfer tax remittances Hits: 1
MTR-2016-01.pdf Collection Account were $18.5 million, an increase of $10.6 million compared to January 2015.  Personal income tax estimated payments for December and January (the final quarterly installment for calendar year 2015) were $597.8 million, an increase of Hits: 1
MTR-2015-11.pdf and plastics and rubber products (8.8% AAGR). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1 Hits: 1
MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf will be no Social Security COLA for 2016, and the analysis attributes that result primarily to lower energy costs. It estimates that Pennsylvania personal income would increase by $800 million if Social Security recipients were to receive an average COLA for Hits: 1
MTR-2015-09.pdf date that occurred in September this year, but which fell in October last year.  The third quarterly installment of estimated taxes for calendar year filers was due in September for both the corporate net income and personal income taxes.  Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf firms find rapid growth in rental prices for urban areas across the state. On August 26, Apartment List released rent estimates for August 2021 that show rents in Philadelphia increased 10.2% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, while rents Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf the accommodation and food services (-3.5) and transportation and warehousing (-3.3) sectors. The BEA will release an advance estimate of 2020 Q3 U.S. GDP on October 29. Currently, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model projects an annualized Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf rate environment drove significant refinancing activity in 2020. Refinancings comprised approximately 60% of all mortgage originations in 2020 and are estimated to comprise only 47% in 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Homeowners in Philadelphia that refinanced (non-cash-out Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf June 2021, the (preliminary) average price is now $1.85 per gallon higher. Based on recent consumption trends, the IFO estimates that Pennsylvania drivers will consume roughly 400 million gallons of gasoline in June 2022. At higher prices, drivers will spend Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf reported 36.4% of the payment would be saved and 34.5% used to pay down debt. Pennsylvanians received an estimated $11.0 billion in EIPs in 2020 and the survey results suggest that $3.2 billion was used for personal Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf in a typical month. The number of job openings in June declined 18.5% compared to May. However, the latest estimate still exceeds pre-COVID average job openings. These data lag other labor market data by one month. • Initial Unemployment Insurance Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf Policy Decisions Increase Likelihood of Recession In the latest Wall Street Journal survey, economists estimate the average probability of recession during the next year at 28%, up from 18% in January. In a recent interview Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf explained by the federal stimulus distributed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased households’ disposable income. The IFO estimates that $50.7 billion flowed to state residents in the form of economic impact payments and the extra $600 or Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf Heavily Impacted For the week ending April 11, the U.S. Department of Labor released state data that show that estimated initial claims for unemployment compensation (UC) remain high (238,357), but declined compared to the prior week (277,640; -14 Hits: 1
MER-2015-06.pdf for real gross domestic product (GDP) by state. The release includes revised figures for 1997 to 2013 and an advance estimate for 2014. The growth of real GDP per capita is a useful metric to compare the performance of states because Hits: 1
MER-2014-11.pdf these data from its af Ðiliates throughout the state. Until recently, PAR did not publish data for Pennsylvania home sales. Estimates for such sales were often extrapo‐ lated from data for the northeast region from the Nation‐ al Association of Realtors Hits: 1
MER-2014-09.pdf 0 ‐1.8 ‐11.9 1.7 AAGR ‐1.2% ‐0.8% ‐3.5% 0.4% Note: 2014 is an estimate based on data through August. AAGR denotes average annual growth rate. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Federal Employees Hits: 1
MER-2014-07.pdf Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Snapshot: The Changing Composition of Pennsylvania Personal Income The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes quarterly estimates of personal income for the U.S. and all 50 states. State personal income is comprised of (1) net wages Hits: 1
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf fuel– or conversion of existing vehicle fleets to do so. No requirement to actually use alt fuels.  Initial revenue estimate: a $5 million tax credit.  Cost quickly ballooned to $680 million as people discovered how to game the system Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf localities have adopted a minimum wage above their state's minimum wage. Projections use a 2.0% growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Source: The Economic Policy Institute. Minimum Wage Tracker (published January 7, 2021). Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 1
IFO_Public_Briefing_May_2018_19.pdf to the public. The report will be posted to the office website at the start of the briefing. Updated Revenue Estimates www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO Public Briefing CreationDate: 2018-04-24 13:11:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DACT5o1_Ye4 ModDate Hits: 1
IFO_Presentation_HB1379_Sept_2023.pdf 7, 2023 5 Revised Actuarial Costs ▪ UAL: +$282m ▪ Annual Costs: $38m (10 yrs.) ▪ Should be seen as “high end” actuarial estimates IFO Analysis: Reimbursements ▪ State/Local pension split: 24% State / 76% Local ▪ COLA reimbursements reduce general pension aid ▪ Will change annually Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Revenue_Analyst.pdf analyzes, does not make policy recommendations, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Position Summary A Revenue Analyst I Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Fiscal_Analyst.pdf analyzes, does not make policy recommendations and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Per the statute that created the office, all staff “shall be appointed without regard to political affiliation and solely on Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Deputy_Director.pdf analyzes, does not make policy recommendations, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Position Summary The deputy director is Hits: 1
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf time measures, the underlying structural imbalance remains and is carried forward into future years,” Knittel said. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of $409 million in the current fiscal year. The imbalance grows to Hits: 1
IFO ppt.pdf Release date is November 15 th . – Consider economics, demographics, revenues and expenditures. • Act also requires Office to convene a revenue estimating conference by January 31 st of each year. • For this year, the Office has combined two events. January 18, 2012 Hits: 1
House Budget Hearing Request.pdf data on in and out migration by the age of the primary tax filer. These data may be utilized to estimate the income earners and dependents migrating in and out of the state by age group. Tables presenting the IRS migration Hits: 1
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf to $299 (“typical”) \| NYFRB (2022) ~$350 (unofficial) ▪ Katz (2023) $328 \| Looney (2019) $316 ▪ Transunion (2023) $336 non-mortgage, $400 mortgage (estimates for 2024) 3 Share of borrowers that continued to pay off loans ▪ NYFRB (2022): 19% of borrowers continued to reduce Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf year (FY) 2018-19. The certified rate is 0.75 percentage points lower than the employer contribution rate used to estimate the state share of PSERS employer contributions in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, which Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Updated revenue estimates suggest policymakers could face a budget imbalance of more than $500 million in the current fiscal year. The projected imbalance Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf GDP Growth Demographic Outlook Projections from the Pennsylvania State Data Center Official State Demographer Based on 2015 U.S. Census Estimates 11/15/2016 7 Three Demographic Takeaways No Surprise: A Rapidly Aging Population.  First Baby Boomers turn age 65 Hits: 1
Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdf retail sales of electricity to all sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation) within the state, (2) direct use electricity and (3) estimated line losses. Net exports are equal to net generation less total consumption. 1 For 2020, Pennsylvania exported more megawatts of Hits: 1
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf line purchases Key dates to watch  August 21: July jobs report for Pennsylvania  Mid-September: 3 rd PIT estimated payment (first two down ~9% YOY) August 19, 2020 5 IFO and Administration Forecast for FY 20-21 August 19 Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted Hits: 1
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf Congressional Budget Office. • Supply non-partisan analysis. • No governing board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at request Hits: 1
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf collection data reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), the IFO estimates that 70 percent of total property tax is levied by school districts and 30 percent is levied by counties and Hits: 1
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  Massive federal stimulus temporarily fills underlying structural deficit  IFO estimates at ~$2.5 billion \| consensus it is significant  Significant monies now available for certain spending priorities next year Labor Hits: 1
BEFC_Response_Letter_12_19_23.pdf average and weighted average by school district SPP scores for most of the survey results from Part II (cost multiplier estimates) and Part III (best practices) sections of the survey. If you have any further follow-up questions to these responses Hits: 1
Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdf 22, current-year revenues increased by 2.8% per annum, while the average base index was 2.4%. The IFO estimates revenue growth of 3.9% in FY 2022-23 and 4.3% in FY 2023-24, compared to base indexes Hits: 1
2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf with missing figures will be populated when the contract summaries and data are received from the Office of Administration. The estimates for non-represented and management assume that the AFSCME changes are applied to all full-time, permanent employees classified as Hits: 1
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf miscellaneous items. 3. Latest data available for 2009. Social Security Administration, Table 4.B10, 2009. 4. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that GDP would rise (over a 5-year period) by $1.30 to $1.90 per dollar of budg- etary Hits: 1
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf 9 in December. Despite weak retail sales, online shopping or “e- commerce,” continues to increase at a rapid pace. SpendingPulse estimates that online holiday sales in- creased by 8.4 percent over last year. In the third quar- ter of 2002 Hits: 1
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf around the same time, PIT collections could be negatively impacted. As of July 1, 2011, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that Pennsylvania had the fourth largest share of pop- ulation age 65 and over (15.6 percent) behind Florida (17 Hits: 1
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf its" into a measure of "economic profits." For exam- ple, the measure disallows accelerated tax deprecia- tion but includes an estimate of unreported profits. For 2012 Q2, total corporate profits rose 6.1% over the same quarter from the prior year Hits: 1
2001_hr266.pdf 3 and employees. 4 (2) Employer cost considerations given the current fully 5 funded status of PSERS and SERS and estimated future 6 contribution rates pursuant to recently enacted legislation. 7 (3) National trends and studies on the degree to which Hits: 1
Pensions not less than the employer normal contribution rate. Miscellaneous Provisions • Established an independent fiscal office charged with providing independent revenue estimates and other functions, and required the newly established independent fiscal office to undertake a study to be completed by December Hits: 1
About IFO analyzes, does not make policy recommendations and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Per the statute that created the office, all staff "shall be appointed without regard to political affiliation and solely on Hits: 1