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Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Economic and Budget Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

Tags: budget, demographic, economic, estimates, presentation, property

January 2021 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.66 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $412.6 million (-13.4%) compared to January 2020. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

January 2021 Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

Tags: estimates, presentation, revenue

December 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $3.68 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $774.3 million (26.6%) compared to December 2019. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

November 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $18.3 million (-0.8%) compared to November 2019.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

October 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.59 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $77.5 million (2.9%) compared to October 2019.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

September 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $3.26 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $76.7 million (2.4%) compared to September 2019.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eight budget cycles.

Tags: estimates, performance, revenue

August 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget.

Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue

July 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

June 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation. 

Presentation

Methodology

Tags: estimates, revenue

May 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20 are included. 

Tags: estimates, revenue

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20.

Tags: estimates, presentation, revenue

IFO Public Briefing: Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

 

Tags: estimates, presentation, revenue

April 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”

Tags: estimates, revenue

Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19

The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy.

Tags: estimates, revenue

March 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

February 2020

The Commonwealth collected $2.17 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $125.9 million compared to February 2019.

Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue

JANUARY 2020

The Commonwealth collected $3.07 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $186.0 million compared to January 2019.

Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.)

02/24/2021

Revised Monthly Revenue estimates

This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020.

02/23/2021

2019 Wage Contracts Summary Table

This table provides an up-to-date summary of the recent wage contracts analyzed by the IFO. Additional estimates will be provided after the relevant contract detail has been transmitted to the IFO by the Office of Administration.

11/12/2020

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eight budget cycles.

09/03/2020

August 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

09/01/2020

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget.

08/27/2020

July 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

08/03/2020

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Presentation Methodology

06/22/2020

May 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

06/01/2020

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20 are included. 

05/26/2020

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20.

05/26/2020

April 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates.

05/01/2020

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”

04/23/2020

March 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million.

04/01/2020

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25.

02/06/2020

Minimum Wage Increase estimates

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that expands upon a prior analysis on the impact of a proposed minimum wage increase.

10/10/2019

Property Tax Replacement estimates

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code affecting personal income and sales and use taxes.

10/04/2019

School District Property Tax Elimination

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates potential replacement revenues for school district property taxes described in House Bill 13.

10/03/2019

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget.

08/08/2019

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past seven budget cycles.

07/26/2019

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and official estimates for FY 2019-20 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Methodology

06/21/2019

Property Tax Replacement estimates

In response to a legislative request, the IFO has posted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code that affect personal income, sales and property taxes.

05/23/2019

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19 are included. For the PowerPoint presentation, click on the hyperlink above.  

05/20/2019

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19.

05/20/2019

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."  

03/22/2019

SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.  

03/18/2019

Economic & Budget Outlook Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

03/01/2019

MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY REVENUE estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget.

07/30/2018

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past six budget cycles.

07/25/2018

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19

The official revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Methodology

06/18/2018

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Press Release Presentation

05/01/2018

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/18/2018

Fiscal Impact of School Property Tax Rebates

In response to a legislative request, the IFO estimated the fiscal impact of a school property tax rebate for all homesteads. The rebate would be equal to the statewide average school property tax paid by homesteads. The response includes both baseline estimates for currently eligible homesteads and estimates for a behavioral effect based on the filing of additional homestead applications in response to the availability of rebates.

03/13/2018

IFO Update on Selected Fiscal Topics and Pennsylvania Demographics

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) Pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017. 

03/09/2018

Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release

01/29/2018

School District Property Tax Forecast

This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property.  Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23.

01/18/2018

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past five budget cycles.

12/22/2017

Updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates

This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget.

12/21/2017

County Homestead Detail

As an extension of its recent research relating to property taxes, the IFO has released additional data regarding homestead property. estimates for the numbers and assessed values of homestead properties by county are based, in large part, on the results of a survey of county assessment offices. The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania provided valuable assistance by coordinating the survey. Data for Philadelphia has been adjusted based on new information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue.

12/06/2017

Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q3

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

11/03/2017

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue estimates

This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget.

08/10/2017

Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q2

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

08/02/2017

Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q1

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

05/05/2017

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2017-18

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2017-18 and updated estimates for FY 2016-17. Press Release Presentation

05/02/2017

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017)

04/05/2017

Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

02/10/2017

Quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q4

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

01/24/2017

Quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q3

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.  Fiscal Year 2016-17 2016 Q3 (July to September 2016)

10/27/2016

Quarterly Revenue estimates

This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. 

08/24/2016

Revenue Estimate Performance

Examination of the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past four budget cycles (August 2016).

08/12/2016

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/21/2016

Property Tax Rebate Estimate

Letter providing estimates for a potential proposal to give homestead owners school property tax rebates equal to the statewide average school property tax paid (March 2015).

03/11/2015

Impact Fee Update - February 2015

This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

02/27/2015

Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 through CY 2024

estimates toll revenues collected by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission (PTC) through calendar year 2024. The scope of this analysis is limited to forecasting toll revenues; it does not address other revenues remitted to the PTC nor does it address the general fiscal condition of the PTC.

05/28/2013

An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania

estimates the fiscal and economic impact of expanding Medicaid (Medical Assistance) under the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). The scope of the analysis is limited to the impact of Medicaid expansion; it does not address the costs, savings or economic effects of the ACA generally.

04/22/2013

ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

flow basis and $1.4 billion on a present value basis. See page 11 for details. Risk Transfer Two simulations estimate the amount of investment risk transferred under the pro- posal. An “all employee” simulation demonstrates that the risk transfer grows as employ- ees under the new plan design comprise a greater share of the workforce. A “new employee” simula- tion estimates risk reduction of 53 percent for PSERS and 58 percent for SERS under the new plans. For a 100 basis

Hits: 123

Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue

Hits: 99

Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact three policy options noted above. The report only considers the direct economic implications and does not attempt to estimate the monetary value of exter- nalities such as reduced pollution. The report does not include a review of environmental and other impacts

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue

Hits: 78

Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 21, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Section 1704-E (b) of The Fiscal Code. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19

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QRR_2015Q1.pdf

2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published

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QRR_2014Q4.pdf

2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published

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Independent Fiscal Office

Independent Fiscal Office IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Independent Fiscal Office Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Natural Gas Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review News Stand & Other Featured collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on

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QRR_2013Q4.pdf

2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published

Hits: 66

Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue

Hits: 66

Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its official revenue estimate in accord- ance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides

Hits: 65

QRR_2014Q2.pdf

2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published

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QRR_2016Q1.pdf

Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of

Hits: 61

QRR_2015Q4.pdf

Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of

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QRR_2017Q2.pdf

REVIEW APRIL TO JUNE Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s

Hits: 48

Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its

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QRR_2015Q3.pdf

Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publications detailing the annual and quarterly revenue estimates are available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This analysis uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the

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QRR_2013Q3.pdf

2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 page intentionally left blank. - Independent Fiscal Office | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2017. That time period covers five complete budget

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issues this report as an update to its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report in Novem- ber. However, due

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QRR_2017Q3.pdf

2), and quarterly breakdowns for the Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund (page 4). The most recent publication detailing these estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its revenue estimates with actual revenue collec- tions. The report also provides context for the vari- ances between estimates and actual collections. For

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2019-20. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its

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QRR_2017Q1.pdf

REVIEW JANUARY TO MARCH Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve‐ nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec‐ tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s

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QRR_2016Q3.pdf

General Fund (page 2), Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund (page 4). The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

Enhance the credibility of its work  Promote a thorough understanding of its analyses  Help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances were different CBO’s Goals in Being Transparent 2 CBO How CBO Fosters Transparency to questions from Members of Congress  Explaining its analytical methods  Releasing data  Analyzing the accuracy of its estimates  Comparing its current estimates with its previous ones  Comparing its estimates with those of others  Estimating the

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates of the revenue proposals included in the budget. All data sources and methodologies used to derive those estimates are noted in the

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QRR_2016Q4.pdf

REVIEW OCTOBER TO DECEMBER Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

Revenues For the mid‐year revenue update released in January, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) increased its General Fund revenue estimate for FY 2015‐16 by $200 million, and the revised amount is $50 million higher than the corresponding amount in the FY 2016‐17 Executive Budget. Three factors motivate the upward revision to revenues:  Very strong growth in PIT estimated payments. Through the first seven months of the fiscal year, these payments are up 17.0 percent over the prior

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 page intentionally left blank. - Independent Fiscal Office | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through May 2018. That time period covers six complete budget

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute creating the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required to

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019, March collections of $4.4 billion were $331.8 million (-7.0 percent) below estimate. (See table on next page.) The IFO estimates that the virus contributed roughly $200 million to the monthly shortfall: (1) $50 million in lost revenue due to reduced

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

a request from the General Assembly, this document updates the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) official General Fund revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 to reflect the projected impact from COVID-19 and provide a preview of revenue estimates for FY 2020-21. The estimates represent potential outcomes based on the length of mandated business closures under two scenarios

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2020-21. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. His- torical revenue and expenditure projections). As explained in the September release, it is likely that near-term projections will be similar to actual population estimates. However, long-term projections are less certain because birth, death and migration rates can vary more significantly in the long

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2018-19 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2019-20 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school property taxes for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20, as well as projections for FY 2020-21

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For June, General Fund collections were $154 million (-4.7 percent) below estimate due to the lack of a funds transfer ($200 million) from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA). The

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute that created the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

Fiscal Office February 7, 2014 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 IFO Reports and Analyses 2 Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 Consumer Debt 7 General or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental organizations that

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2019-20 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2020-21 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Forecast Overview Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school district property taxes for FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21, as well as projections for FY 2021-

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $99.1 million (-3.3%) below estimate for January and $320.6 million (1.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Sales and use tax (SUT) came in above estimate for the month while

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For the month of May, General Fund collections were $197 million (-7.4 percent) below estimate but are roughly meeting estimate for the fiscal year. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded estimate by $50 million

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact IHS Markit (October 2019). Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabu- lations from the 2018 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Penn- sylvania Department of Health. Historical revenue and expenditure data are

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Committee prepared by the Independent Fiscal Office February 8, 2013 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental organizations that

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute that created the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

verified list of corporate targets, which must be considered. The speculative nature of divestment and replacement investment precludes precise actuarial estimates. The State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) project a general 0.5% reduction The ISS list includes the names of more than 400 companies, many of them prominent Pennsylvania employers, that in the estimation of ISS, would meet the criteria of being “engaged in business with a state sponsor of terror” and would have

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

of those plans and reviews. The IFO also prepares monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinates analyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and Spot Prices ........................................................................... 15 Natural Gas Spot Prices ............................................................................................................ 16 Natural Gas: U.S. and PA Consumption .............................................................................. 17 2018 Impact Fee Estimate ...................................................................................................... 18 Pension Systems Data ............................................................................................................... 20 Employer Contribution Rates for PSERS and SERS ...................................................... 21 Funded Ratios for PSERS and SERS .................................................................................... 22

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through April, total General Fund revenues are $173 million, or 0.6 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of April, General Fund collections were $325 million (-8.0 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use

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RB-2018-01.pdf

1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2016-17 in late spring 2018. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2017 -18 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data of school property taxes. This report also incorporates recent IFO research regarding the property taxes paid by homesteads and displays estimates through FY 2022-23. Table 1 provides a summary of the IFO’s estimate of school property taxes for FY

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For June, General Fund collections exceeded estimate by $50.9 million (1.7 percent) and were $958.7 million (2.8 percent) above estimate for the year. The FY overage was primarily generated by stronger than anticipated collections related to corporate net income tax

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $80.8 million (2.9%) above estimate for December and $419.7 million (2.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through February, total General Fund revenues are $619 million, or 3.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. February General Fund collections were $158 million (4.6 percent) above estimate. The three largest sources of tax revenue (personal

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MRU-2020-08.pdf

27, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 based on its official estimate released June 22. Compared to those estimates, General Fund collections of $2,548.4 million in August were $247.7 million (10.8 percent) higher than anticipated

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

small number of rural counties, it is possible to use tax data trends for those counties to derive a rough estimate of total natural gas royalties paid over time. A technical explanation of the methodology used to estimate those payments can be found at the end of this brief. The table on the next page displays estimates of

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first five months of FY 2017 -18, total General Fund revenues were $203.1 million (1.8 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $58.5 million (0.5 percent) above estimate and non-tax revenues were $144.5 million (181

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2017-18 in late Spring 2019. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2018-19 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax assessment data and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides a summary of the IFO’s estimate of school property taxes for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19, as well as projections for FY 2019-20

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections exceeded estimate for April ($508.6 million) and are $890.5 million (3.1%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by unusually strong personal income tax (PIT), sales

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections met estimate for March (+$2.0 million) and are $381.9 million (1.6%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and insurance premiums tax offset shortfalls

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $154.1 million (7.1%) above estimate for November and $338.9 million (2.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $19.5 million (-0.8 percent) below estimate for October and $184.8 million (1.9 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). October shortfalls in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and non-tax collections were

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $137.8 million (4.7 percent) above estimate for September and $204.3 million (2.8 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). General Fund collections for September were above estimate primarily due to overages in

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first four months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $9.6 million (-0.1 percent) below the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $27.4 million (-0.3 percent) below estimate and non-tax revenues were $17.8 million (29

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

4 million (26.6 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The overage was primarily due to stronger than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections and one-time transfers under Act 114 of 2020 (not included in the IFO’s Official Estimate). Monthly CNIT collections of $760.9 million were $333.8 million (78.2 percent) over estimate due to higher than

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

million (11.9 percent) higher than the monthly projection associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The difference was attributable to sales and use tax (SUT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $739.6 million (8.1 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were $132.9 million (15.4 percent) above estimate due

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 1,335 47,263 488119 – Support Services 47 1,818 22,579 Data for NAIC 336412 is an estimate based on 2008 value and total for all manufacturers for 2011. Value for 2011 was not disclosed. Source: BLS, Quarterly Census of

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REU-2020-01.pdf

Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections for January fell below estimate by $18.4 million (-0.6 percent). Fiscal- year-to-date (FYTD) collections are exceeding estimate by $195.4 million (1.1 percent). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

Security and pension disbursements. Cost of Major Programs that Provide Services to Pennsylvania Seniors Table 1 provides detail on the estimated costs of major programs that provide services to Pennsylvania seniors from FY 2017-18 to FY 2019-20. The major Aging, Revenue and Transportation and (3) funding for Veterans Homes in the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. The cost estimates are broken out by type of funding (state, federal or September 23, 2019 Page 2 lottery funds). This analysis does

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $59.3 million (3.0%) above estimate for February and $379.9 million (1.9%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly surplus was largely due to higher than anticipated corporate net income

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through March, total General Fund revenues are $498 million, or 2.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of March, General Fund collections were $121 million (-2.7 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use

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MRU_2020_11.pdf

which was $90.9 million above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The monthly outcome was due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT the Property Tax Relief Fund (PTRF) under Act 114 of 2020 (which was not included in the IFO’s Official Estimate). General Fund fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed the estimate by $1.11 billion (8.0 percent). Monthly SUT

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

the percentage reduction in the tax rate) is offset by dynamic effects. 12 At the national level, economic models have estimated revenue offsets ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent once all dynamic effects have been reflected fully. 13 Based on rate changes, government and private entities include the behavioral impact from reduced profit shifting to foreign entities in the static estimate. 13 See “Preliminary Details and Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” Tax Foundation, Special Report No. 241 (December

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

Commonwealth?.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Part V–Local Government Pensions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Part VI–Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Tables•Table 1–Personal Income Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates.. . . . . . 9•Table 2–Sales Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9•Table 3–Cash Infusion Projections – Public SchoolEmployees’ Retirement System.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10•Table 4–Cash Infusion Projections – State Employees’Retirement System

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

certain economic assumptions. The healthcare trend assumption reflects the current best professional judgment of the Commission’s consulting actuary. -16- Estimated Costs The Commission’s consulting actuary has estimated the increase in pay-as-you-go costs if the Commonwealth-subsidized premium assistance available to the retiree were extended

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. Compared to those estimates, General Fund collections of $2,192.9 million in August were $67.1 million (3.2 percent) above estimate. The overage was largely attributable to sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal-year-to- date

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For May, General Fund collections exceeded estimate ($17.4 million) and are $907.8 million (2.9 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was the result of strong collections in sales and use

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through January, total General Fund revenues are $462 million, or 3 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. Most of the year-to-date overage occurred in the current month. January 2018 total General Fund collections exceeded estimate

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for

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REU-2019-11.pdf

released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of November were above estimate by $42.1 million (1.8 percent) and by $272.0 million (2.2 percent) for the fiscal year-to- collections, which were partially offset by weak SUT motor vehicle tax collections. November CNIT collections were $10.0 million over estimate (7.8 percent) due to higher than anticipated estimated payments ($8.6 million, 29.5 percent). FYTD CNIT collections are

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first three months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $25.3 million (0.4 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Total tax revenues were $9.4 million (0.1 percent) above estimate and non-tax revenues were $15.8 million

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MRU-2020-10.pdf

2 million (11.9 percent) above the monthly projection associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The key variances are attributable to sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $1.01 billion (8.8 percent). SUT revenues for October totaled $1,089.4 million, $132.5 million (13

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly esti- mates

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office January 2020 1 2019 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the fee in any operating year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2019, which will be remitted in April 2020. This brief also translates the impact fee

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

General Fund Revenue Estimate FY 2013-14 Mid-Year Update Independent Fiscal Office January 23, 2014 At the beginning of the fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) forecasted FY 2013-14 General Fund revenues of $29.154 billion. For comparison, the revenue estimate certified by the Governor and published by the Department of Revenue was $29.116 billion, a difference of $38.5

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

17. Source: Tax Policy Center at http://tpc-tax-calculator.urban.org/. Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 10 Two Estimates of Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 -$168 Throughs -188.8 -168.5 One-Third Net Corporate -30.4 -29.5 Tax Cut Realized -219.2 -198.1 Estimated PA Share 3.5% 3.5% Increase PA Disposable Income 7.7 6.9 Note: Corporations use revenues from the

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Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf

Representative Ryan: Thank you for your July 9 th letter that requests the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide additional estimates related to House Bill 13. The IFO provides the enclosed table in response to that request. Please note the following:  The estimates utilize the latest revenue forecast released by the IFO (June 21, 2019 and updated to reflect statutory changes that were

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

time transition funding $16.8 $0.0 $0.0 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Assumes October 1, 2020 implementation. The estimates are preliminary and based on discussions with the department. DHS may update the estimates as more information becomes available. On a state fiscal year basis, the additional funding for prevention services is estimated at

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QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf

IFO General Fund Revenue Estimate Comparison to Actual Revenues October 1, 2015 The Independent Fiscal Office recently published quarterly estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2015-16 General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund revenues. The office provides a detailed

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MRU-2020-06.pdf

COVID-19 virus. Fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 collections totaled $32.28 billion, $3.24 billion (-9.1 percent) below estimate. The shortfall roughly consists of: (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 various other revenue sources. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections for June were $243.8 million (-38.5 percent) below estimate. The majority of the shortfall (-$190.6 million) occurred in estimated payments and is related to the impact of the

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MRU-2020-04.pdf

impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The IFO estimates that the shortfall is almost entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $385 million in lost revenue due result of extended tax due dates. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.19 billion (-7.4 percent) below estimate through April and are 5.7 percent below collections for the same period in the prior fiscal year. Personal income

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

wage growth: boost to consumer confidence? FY 2014‐15 General Fund Revenues. • Performance through January. • Revisions to FY 2014‐15 estimate. • Implications for next year. Advance Look at FY 2015‐16 Revenues. 28.Jan.2015 2 Today’s Presentation 28.Jan 7 39.9 16.6 41.7 48.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014 is preliminary. 2015 estimate by IFO. Annual Job Gains and Losses (000s) 28.Jan.2015 5 PA Economic Growth Rates ‐3.0% ‐2.0%

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast.  General weakness. All 7% 6.4% 19.3% Note: All growth rates are year-over-year. Wage growth for 2017 Q1 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, various other Census products and data sup- plied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Other data

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REU-2020-02.pdf

Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For February, General Fund revenues exceeded the estimate by $102.9 million (5.0 percent) and by $298.4 million (1.4 percent) for the fiscal-year- to- March due date. CNIT collections were $83.7 million for February, which was $12.9 million (18.2 percent) above estimate. The monthly performance was a product of higher than anticipated final payments ($7.3 million, 15.2 percent) and estimated

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook INITIAL REVENUE ESTIMATE FISCAL YEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May 1, 2018 Today’s presentation.  PA economy: growth appears to accelerate recently.  FY 17-18: hitting estimate except for JUA transfer.  FY 18-19: moderately strong tax revenue growth. Final estimate to be released June 15

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12, 2018 FY 17-18: revenues are close to estimate.  Gains (PIT and SUT) offset losses (CNIT and GRT).  ~$200 million short: non-receipt of JUA transfer.  PA hub price is weighted average for the Dominion South and Leidy hubs. Impact Fee for 2017 is an IFO estimate. Sources: IFO tabulations of data submitted to the PA Department of Environmental Protection. Impact Fee revenues from PA Public Utility

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office January 2017 1 Research Brief 2017-1 January 2017 2016 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2016, which will be remitted in April 2017. 1 This brief also translates the impact

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 based on: (1) the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the IFO Official Revenue Estimate published on June 18, 2018 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted after June 18th. 1 General Fund collections were $12 million (0.5 percent) above estimate for July, primarily due to higher than anticipated motor vehicle sales and use tax (SUT, $17 million), non-motor SUT

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute creating the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required to

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Role in the Budget Process The statute creating the IFO outlines several points at which the office is required to

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REU-2019-12.pdf

monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections were $58.5 million (-2.0 percent) below estimate for December and $213.9 million (1.4 percent) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income

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RB-2019-01.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2019-1 January 2019 2018 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2018, which will be remitted in April 2019. 1 This brief also translates the impact

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2018-2 January 2018 2017 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2017, which will be remitted in April 2018. 1 This brief also translates the impact

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revised monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 The new release includes the incremental impact on General Fund revenues of (1) Acts 42 2) a recent Supreme Court decision on net operating loss deductions. 2 December collections were $67 million (2.4%) above estimate primarily due to stronger than anticipated collections in personal income tax (PIT) estimated payments ($80 million above estimate, 49.4%

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MRU_2021_01.pdf

were $245.8 million (-8.5 percent) below the monthly projections associated with the revised Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly shortfall was the largely the result of a temporary shift in personal income tax 146.0 million, largely meeting the January projection (0.1 percent). The monthly performance was due to higher than anticipated estimated payments ($4.6 million, 6.8 percent) and lower than expected final payments (-$4.5 million, -5.7 percent). CNIT

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

our website after the requestor has had three days to review the response and ask questions. The office also (1) estimates the budgetary impact of collective bargaining agreements, (2) coordinates and provides actuarial analysis for proposed changes to the pension systems the Budget and the Secretary of Revenue to discuss economic trends and revenue performance. May 1 Provide an initial revenue estimate for the upcoming fiscal year. June 15 Provide a final revenue estimate for the upcoming fiscal year. Other Office Responsibilities

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

revenue outlook for the current and next fiscal year. A core function of the IFO is the provision of revenue estimates for consideration by the General Assembly. Our next formal release will be on May 1, when our preliminary revenue estimate is due. By June 15, the office will release its official, or final, estimate for FY 2014-15. Although the

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REU-2019-10.pdf

IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of October exceeded estimate by $143.7 million (5.7 percent) and by $229.8 million (2.3 percent) for the fiscal year-to- SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. October SUT collections were $41.0 million over estimate (4.1 percent) due almost entirely to higher than anticipated non-motor revenue, which grew at a rate of 8

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf

your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide an update to a previous letter transmitted by the office regarding estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. 1 Your updated request specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant to the estimates:  Establish a new base rebate of $175 for all senior homeowners with household incomes between $35,000 and $50

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

Plan Funding Standard and Recovery Act Act and Regulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Reporting Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Actuarial Funding Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Required Actuarial Cost Estimates for Benefit Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 General Municipal Pension System State Aid . . . . . 27 Recovery Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 -iii- Table of Contents (Cont'd by which the General Assembly considers this legislation. The Commis- sion’s actuarial notes are required to provide a reliable estimate of both the immediate financial impact and the long- - 4 - range actuarial effect of proposed legislation affecting public employee retirement

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

2018 Today’s Presentation Updates on topics covered in recent IFO analyses:  School property tax  Demographics  Revenue estimates  Pensions / Act 5 2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax Update New Forecast, Including Homestead Property Background on Property in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 4 March 8, 2018 Homestead Survey IFO uses survey results to inform its estimates of homestead property. Recent constitutional amendment may result in legislative proposals. Data collected from county assessment offices with help from

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues exceeded the September estimate by $111.0 million and by $86.2 million for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was and escheat collections. September CNIT revenues outperformed the forecast by $40.1 million due to overages in both final and estimated payments. CNIT collections are also exceeding the FTYD forecast ($45.1 million) as both final and estimated payments are outperforming

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 15, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimate (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released its official revenue estimate, according to director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 4th, and the official estimate

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 16, 2014 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimate (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released its official revenue estimate, according to director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 1, and the official estimate

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QRE_FY15-16.pdf

Fiscal Year 2015-16 September 17, 2015 Quarterly Revenue Estimates Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 FY 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates This document provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

Fiscal Year 2014-15 August 14, 2014 Quarterly Revenue Estimates About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax revenues very strong (much is permanent). Corporate net income gains (temporary, old tax years). IFO adds +$373 million to official revenue estimate. Growing concern over moderate slowdown next few years. Expenditures: many one-time measures expire. Mainly affects Department of Human Services

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MRU-2020-05.pdf

overage in various revenue sources. May fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.70 billion (-8.4 percent) below estimate. Monthly sales and use tax (SUT) collections were below estimate by $282.9 million or 28.8 percent in May, with the shortfall in non-motor collections (-$189.5 million

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact January 2019). Section 2: R&D Tax Credit Overview | Page 7 For this report, DOR and DCED provided estimates for staff time and annual costs to administer and enforce the RDTC. For DOR, the estimates are: The estimated cost to

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact five years of receipt. Credits may not be carried back, refunded, trans- ferred or sold. The agencies provided estimates for staff time and annual costs to administer and enforce the tax credit:  For DCED, less than one full-time equivalent

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

2% 578 -12.3% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. IFO Revenue Estimate – General Fund Snapshot June 15, 2016 This snapshot summarizes the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY15-16 and its official revenue estimate for FY16-17. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains

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Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf

Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Hughes: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates related to school district property tax rebates for eligible homesteads. Specifically, your letter requested the following estimates:  The number of properties that may qualify as homestead properties. 1  The statewide average school district property tax

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact officers of the company. Please note that cost per job calculations in the table above represent lower-bound estimates as certain projects may receive funds from multiple programs.  PA First is a funding tool used to incentivize investment and job

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

the Executive and Legislature.  No governing board. Non-partisan vs. bi-partisan.  Primary duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  in funding for higher education that has not been approved. Lapses for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 are estimates. Source: Executive Budgets, various years and IFO Official Revenue Estimate (June 2017). October 19, 2017 5 Budget Status  Unresolved

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

I Michaela Bowers, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates of General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates are

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

S. Profits and Business Investment 25.Jan.2017 9 Financial Markets Recover Note: Dividend data for 2016 Q4 is an estimate. Sources: Yahoo Finance and Factset. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% S&P 500 S&P 500 Dividend Payments Revenue Outlook 25.Jan.2017 10 25.Jan.2017 11 Original IFO FY 2016-17 Estimate Dollar Amount Growth Policy & Timing Adjusted Growth General Fund $32,510 5.2% $875 2.4% Corporate Net Income 2

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mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 28, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2014-15 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15. The revised estimate is $30.207 billion, which is $250 million higher than the

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

fiscal condition over the next five fiscal years. Revenue and expenditure projections are not intended to be used as point estimates of future outcomes. Method of Presentation In order to illustrate broad trends and convey their impact, it is useful to government spending (-0.2 percentage points). Expansive fiscal policy provided broad support to the 2010 economy. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the stimulative impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 peaked in 2010, increasing real GDP

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Revenues July 2019 to January 2020 January 28, 2020 7 Actual Revenues IFO Estimate Admin Estimate Amount Growth Adjust Amount $ Diff Amount $ Diff General Fund $18,710 3.1% 4.1% $18,517 $194 $18,534

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2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

natural gas extraction took place. Distributions for the last four calendar years are shown in Table 1. (2020 is an estimate.) The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2020, which will be remitted in April 2021. It also converts the impact fee into

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact 3) a project site plan, (4) any additional information necessary to eval- uate the proposed rehabilitation work, (5) estimated cost and (6) evidence of qualified historic structure. 11  The PHMC reviews the application and issues a decision within 30 calendar

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released updated revenue estimates for FY 2015-16 and FY 2016-17, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues its initial

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

IFO Revenue Estimate – General Fund Snapshot June 15, 2015 This snapshot summarizes the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY14-15 and its official revenue estimate for FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 4, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released new revenue estimates for FY 2014-15 and FY 2015-16, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an initial

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

 Low/stable energy prices January 29, 2019 5 FYTD Revenues Through January January 29, 2019 6 Actual Revenues IFO Estimate Admin Estimate Amount Growth Amount $ Diff Amount $ Diff General Fund $18,144 4.5% $17,835 $310 $17,865 $279 Corp. Net

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perez ppt.pdf

total state budget gap: $527.7 billion (FY 2008- FY 2013 est.) FY 2012 Tax Collections (Compared with the Latest Estimate) Personal Income Tax* General Sales Tax Corporate Income Tax Above Estimate On Target Below Estimate Not applicable Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, Fall 2011 *New Hampshire and Tennessee

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Annual Statistical Report, 2017. Calculations by the IFO. 1 Annual jail budget spent divided by county resident population estimate for 2017. County Benchmarks | Page 10 have an SCI inmate rate that exceeds the statewide average of 379 inmates per 100,000

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

5,000 7,500 7,500 7,500 Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. CY 2015 estimates by the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice. 1 Housing Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement Fund. 2011 $204,210 108,726 82,484 of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange ($2.66) moving below the $3.00 per MMbtu threshold. 2 Estimated impact: ‐$32.7 million.  Fewer new wells. Wells pay the highest impact fee for their first operating year. The

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

September 2011; 10 staff, but expanding. ◦ Like the Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and policy recommendations. Dec.13.2017 3 IFO Role in the Budget Process May 1 (prelim) and June 15: issue revenue estimate. ◦ Provides General Assembly a starting point for deliberations. ◦ Governor still provides “official certification” of estimate. November 15: Five-Year Budget

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

Black Knight show that 2020 will easily be the largest year on record for first-lien mortgage originations at an estimated $4.4 trillion. Refinancings comprise most of that activity and through 2020 Q3, 6.4 million U.S. homeowners refinanced was rate and term adjustments only. (By comparison, the cash-out share was closer to 50% in 2019 Q3.) The estimated average cash out was $51,600 and total equity withdrawn was $37 billion for the quarter. Data from Freddie Mac

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mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 25, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2016-17 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than the

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY 2018-19 Through January, actual revenues exceed the IFO official revenue estimate by $321 million (and the Administration’s estimate by $290 million). However, for January, revenues were roughly $100 million below estimate due to a shortfall in the fourth

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact authorized credits lapse or are returned each year due to cancellations or other technical issues. The agencies provided estimates for staff time and annual costs to administer and enforce the tax credit:  For DCED, one to two full-time equivalent

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office May 26, 2020 Solid PA Growth Prior to Pandemic May 26, 2020 1 Year- Capita Consumer Debt 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% Revenues Through March (exclude COVID-19) +$165 million over estimate Note: Figures for 2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 Independent Fiscal Office May 20, 2019 Main Themes PA economy performs as expected in 2018  GDP 769 -1,687 -68.7% Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Actual Revenues vs. IFO Estimate May 20, 2019 8 FY 2018-19 (through April) Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund Revenues $29,163 $28,273 $890

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

Overview Economic Outlook o Changes to forecast. o Consumer spending is crucial – primary driver of economic growth. Revenue Forecast o Estimates vs. Year‐to‐Date actuals. o Outlook for rest of fiscal year and next fiscal year. Discussion and questions 23 Revenue Forecasts 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 10 General Fund 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 11 Revenue Source Estimate Growth Total General Fund $28,510 3.0% Corporate Net Income 2,257 11.6% Sales and Use 9,179

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate FYTD Revenues Through May 2018 Amount Change Growth General Fund $31,483 $3,078 10.8% Corporate Net Income 2 468 1,589 180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.05.2018 2 Two Estimates of the Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office June 22, 2020 Solid PA Growth Prior to Pandemic June 22, 2020 1 Year- Capita Consumer Debt 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% Revenues Through March (exclude COVID-19) +$165 million over estimate Note: Figures for 2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 2, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released new revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an initial

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact to support or refute that an MTBI credit equal to only 5 percent of the equipment purchased (an estimated 3-4 percent of the total project costs) has a significant impact on new investment in Pennsylvania broadband infrastructure. This analysis as-

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 telephone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Coordinators are not DCED employees and do not receive state compensation for their efforts. DOR and DCED provided estimates for staff time and annual cost to administer and enforce the KIZ Tax Credit. For DOR, the estimates are: The cost

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SR2017-06.pdf

Mr. Hill, The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania (CCAP) recently provided the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) with assistance in obtaining estimates for the assessed value of homestead property in Pennsylvania. Specifically, CCAP coordinated a survey of county assessment offices that resulted the recent passage of the constitutional amendment expanding the homestead exclusion. The purpose of the CCAP/IFO survey was to estimate for each county the number of properties that currently qualify as homestead property, the total assessed value of such homestead

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. CY 2020 Lost Labor Income More Than Offset October 29, 2020 2 Estimate Notes Lost Labor Income ($ billions) Wages-Salaries -$20.8 6% reduction vs no-pandemic scenario Self-Employment -3.2 15% control for revenue shifts for tax relief and miscellaneous one-time transfers. Excludes non-tax revenues. IFO and Administration Revenue Estimates FY 2020-21 October 29, 2020 9 IFO Official Admin Official Dollar Difference General Fund $35,874 $34,631 $1

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf

Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Tomlinson: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. Currently the supplemental rebate regardless of tax burden. Your letter specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant to the estimates:  Establish a new base rebate of $175 for all senior homeowners with household incomes between $35,000 and $50

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RB-2015-04.pdf

proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the number of workers who would be directly or potentially affected by the proposal. It then uses responsiveness or elasticity tips and commissions, at least equals the higher minimum wage), but the data do not allow the analysis to reliably estimate those amounts. 7 All self‐employed individuals are also excluded from Table 4. T P I H M W Having

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

staff. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Revenue projections used for advisory purposes only.  Our Primary Duties: • Annual Revenue Estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Economic and Budget Outlook: November 15. • Mid-Year Update: late January.  Office Does Not Budget Timelines Year-to-Date Performance Revisions to General Fund Revenues 12.Feb.2015 5  I. Official General Fund Estimates Released. • Independent Fiscal Office: May 1 and June 15. • Administration: end of June (certified estimate).  II. The Economic and

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  2017 Revised revenue projections for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 Revenues Through January 10.Feb.2017 15 IFO Estimated FYTD Actual FYTD Variance Projected Growth Actual Growth General Fund $16,456 $16,097 -$359 3.5% 1.2% Corporate

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact table on previous page… 12 Calendar year basis. Data from U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (2017). Latest data available from this data set. 3 Percent of kindergarten students with two or more doses of measles, mumps and

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Actual expenditures are listed in the year the expenditure was recorded. FY 19- 20 expenditures do not include estimated supplemental appropriations as of October 31, 2019. Department of Human Services Overview | Page 9 Performance-Based Budget Plan: Key Metrics and Observations

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

would remain unchanged. This report provides an overview of each component of the NAP, explains how the program works and estimates the economic impact of state spending for this purpose. 2 PROGRAM OVERVIEW The Neighborhood Assistance Program utilizes tax credits to state economy is through the use of Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. RIMS II multipliers provide an estimate of the change in total economic output for a given change in direct spending. For example, an output multiplier of

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up well, and actual revenues are up roughly $190 million over estimate once we account for earlier-than-anticipated monies from the lease of the Farm Show complex and non-recurring monies

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

SERS: FY 2012-13 base year; growth based on employer rates and underlying agency growth.  PSERS: System with an estimate of the state share. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 27 15.Nov.2012 Pensions The Economic and Budget Outlook of Revenue Projections  Intended to display revenue trends; primary value is in long-term growth rates, rather than point estimates.  Methodology for long-term estimates differ from methodology used to estimate revenues for the budget. The Economic and Budget

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Overview  Introduction to Independent Fiscal Office (IFO).  Who we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference Conference Some Specific Mandated Duties  Per Act 120 of 2010:  Initial (May 1) and Official (June 15) revenue estimate.  Five-Year Outlook Report (November 15).  Annual Revenue Conference (January 31).  Two Studies: (1) Sales and Use

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Releases

collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.) Tags: property , tax Full Report Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates February 23, 2021 | Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in

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Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf

from 2.0% to 2.25% (July 2017) and then to 2.5% (July 2018) of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits is $4.8 million. The Total column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts that will be initially incurred by a state fund, but will likely be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO

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Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf

from 2.0% to 2.25% (July 2017) and then to 2.5% (July 2018) of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits If the attrition factor was set to 0 (i.e., no change in the composition of the workforce), then the estimated total cost of the agreement would increase by approximately $4 million. 3  Compute the differential. This represents the incremental

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Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf

from 2.0% to 2.25% (July 2017) and then to 2.5% (July 2018) of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 1 If both attrition factors were set to 0 (i.e., no change in workforce or its composition), then the estimated total cost of the agreement would increase by approximately $17 million. 3  Compute the differential. This represents the incremental

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TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf

the TCJA on the federal income tax remitted by Pennsylvania residents. For example, the U.S. Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the TCJ A will reduce total federal income taxes by $189 billion for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2018- 19, while the UPenn Wharton School estimates a reduction of $169 billion. 1 Based on other federal tax data, the IFO estimates that the Pennsylvania share of

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

IFO Revenue Estimate – General Fund Snapshot June 16, 2014 This snapshot summarizes the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY13-14 and its official revenue estimate for FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates (as of July 1st of every year). The 2000 - 2009 data is from the Intercensal Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex and Age for States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010. The 2010 - 2012

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 4, 2018 June.04.2018 2 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate FYTD Revenues Through May 2018 Amount Change Growth General Fund $31,483 $3,078 10.8% Corporate Net Income 2 468 1,589 180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.04.2018 3 Two Estimates of the Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

803 -1,665 -67.5% Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Actual Revenues vs. IFO Estimate June 11, 2019 8 FY 2018-19 (through May) Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund Revenues $31,779 $30,871 $908 Corporate Net Income 2,825 2,502 324 Gross Receipts 1

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Senator John C. Rafferty This report presents the results from an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to estimate toll revenues collected by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission (PTC) through calendar year 2024. The scope of this analysis is limited

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

above the prior year. The growth was entirely attributable to the virus-related extension of final (tax year 2019) and estimated (tax year 2020) payments from April and June to July. Withholding declined $22.7 million from the prior year, or transfers. Monthly sales and use tax (SUT) revenues increased $330.3 million (35.7 percent) from July 2019. The IFO estimates that $160 million of the increase in non-motor vehicle SUT was attributable to the prepayment requirement, which was temporarily

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

have a governing board composed of legislators ▪ Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage 4.2% 2.5% Note: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. Data for CY 2020 and 2020 Q4 are estimates by IFO. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor Force is change from prior year. Labor market data are not seasonally

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

governing board composed of legislators  Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues:  Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?)  Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews  Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Social Security Administration. Computations by IFO. Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceed estimate for FY 2019-20  Most gains are in inheritance tax and escheats  Labor market stronger than expected | inflation

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office January 21, 2016 IFO to Release Revised Revenue Estimates and Updated Fiscal Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

from 2.0% to 2.25% (July 2017) and then to 2.5% (July 2018) of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreements, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 2.64%). 3 If the attrition factor was set to 0 (i.e., no change in workforce composition), then the estimated total cost of the agreements would increase by approximately $1.5 million. 4 For these agreements, the analysis assumes that

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact based on compliance with tax payment and filing obligations and the verification of evidence supporting the application. DOR estimates that the OBMD requires six staff hours to administer at a cost of $340 annually. Historical Data In conducting a tax credit

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SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits million (FY 2021-22) and $12.4 million (FY 2022-23). The four-year total is $30.3 million. 1 Estimates do not include the impact of a new Retention Incentive Payment Program which would provide eligible employees in certain job

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Response-Letter-05-13-2019.pdf

207 FY 2018-19 Tax Freeze 11 - - 408 823 1,318 1,853 2,438 Note: in millions of dollars. Estimates are long-term and assume an effective date prior to FY 2017-18. 9 Homestead school district property tax only would be 9.0% or 10.0%. The new rates for Allegheny county would be 8.0% or 9.0%. Estimates assume that all transfers from SUT are adjusted to a revenue neutral rate, i.e., special funds do not receive

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QRE_FY15-16.xlsx

General Fund FY 2015-16 General Fund Revenue Estimates (dollar amounts in millions) 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 FY 2015-16 Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan- and Interest 23.4 22.3 20.3 6.2 72.2 1 See below for additional detail. 2 Includes estimated fiscal year collections of $0.6 million for taverrn games. FY 2015-16 General Fund Revenue Estimates - Detail (dollar amounts

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Programs ‐153 PHEAA Grants ‐ 39 Other (various increases/decreases) ‐8 Total ‐150 Note: dollar amounts are in millions. Compared to estimates in the January 2016 IFO report, which was based primarily on Act 10A of 2015. 8.Jun.2016 8 

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PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits period.  For Other State Funds, the annual costs are nominal. The four-year total is $0.1 million. 1 Estimates do not include the impact of modifications to the Quality Assurance Program (QAP). Under these changes, those with 20 or

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NGPR-2017Q3.pdf

at some point in the future). These graphs pertain only to horizontal production and well counts. Figures for 2017 are estimates based on year-to-date spud and production data published by DEP and forecasts by Bentek Energy. Figures for 2011 2016 was 1,470, a decline of 11.1 percent from the prior year. For 2017, total production volume is estimated to be 5,300 bcf, an increase of 4.3 percent from the prior year. Producing wells are estimated to

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

COVID-19 Revenue Losses Place Some Pennsylvania Municipalities at Risk The University of Pittsburgh released a tool that estimates the potential revenue loss to Pennsylvania municipalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Researchers estimate that revenue losses range from $833 million to $3.4 billion, or a 4% to 16% reduction in total municipal

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

Total 15,473 Total -27,426 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey and U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Economic Outlook U.S. and PA year-over-year 2019 wage growth remains strong  U.S. at +4.1% 599 PA Wage Income $348 Bus Net Inc $59 November 14, 2019 13 Revenue and Expenditure Outlooks Revenues above IFO estimate by $230 million through October  Adding $200m to official estimate  Strength in sales-use, escheats and personal income

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

service rendered. Although no public or private agency currently maintains complete data on the number of volunteer firefighters in Pennsylvania, estimates place the total number of volunteer firefighters in the Commonwealth between 70,000 and 75,000. 1 Three types of Sheet, Governor’s Center for Local Government Services, Department of Community and Economic Development, August 2002. -3- Nationally, it is estimated that there are currently 19,224 all-volunteer fire companies. 2 This would indicate that Pennsylvania accounts for approximately 12

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

Resolution Objective No. 2 – Cost Considerations “Employer cost considerations given the current fully funded status of PSERS and SERS and estimated future contribution rates pursuant to recently enacted legislation.” – House Resolution No. 266 Estimated Future Contribution Rate of SERS and PSERS Chart III displays the estimated basic employer contribution rate of both SERS and

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

an assumed accumulation period for the COLA contributions and a targeted amount of prefunding, expressed as a percentage of the estimated future COLA liabilities, are specified in the applicable statute. After each subsequent cost-of-living adjustment is enacted, a COLA calcu- lated, using 1) the specified prefunding percentage, 2) the liabilities of the last cost-of-living adjustment as an estimate of the probable liabilities of the next adjustment, 3) the established interest and salary assumptions and 4) the specified assumed

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf

contract is also $502, this impact is not included in the analysis. November 11, 2020 Page 2 In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits payments due to the agreement is as follows (see Table 1):  Establish the baseline or “no agreement” scenario. The estimated total wage base for FY 2020-21 is $7.6 million, and $10.8 million if benefits are included. Apply

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SR2017-05.pdf

The personal income tax (PIT) impact assumes that the entire amount of household income is subject to tax. The PIT estimates in this table should be viewed as a maximum for the median incomes listed because income for some households may 55 76,927 2,986 Luzerne 208,169 104,313 50 85,297 1,223 Table 3 FY 2015-16 Estimates for Average Homestead School District Property Tax by County Revised 1/18/2018 County Property Tax Collections 1 Homestead Amount

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Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf

Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Mastriano: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the annual loss of tax revenue associated with the elimination of property taxes – imposed by all political subdivisions - on Survey (ACS), the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). 2 The estimates apply to senior homeowners only, and exclude any property tax that may be effectively remitted by senior renters. Based on

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

much of the non-state spending was truly leveraged by the grant, and those amounts would greatly impact these simple estimates. For example, if the state supplied one half of the total funds for the project and (1) all non-state or were borrowed (i.e., the non-state monies would not have been used for an alternative purpose) then the estimates could be twice as large. 5 Finally, if the new project has long-term implications for the local economy, then

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PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

2020). This biweekly change represents an annual incremental increase of $416 in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits payments due to the agreement is as follows (see Table 1):  Establish the baseline or “no agreement” scenario. The estimated total wage base for FY 2020-21 is $664.2 million, and $969.5 million if benefits are included. Apply

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

52.2 60.4 61.8 Home Price Index 2.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% Tax revenues exceed estimate through February (+$135 million)  Strong acceleration of estimated income tax payments in Dec-Jan (+33%)  Mini-casino license auctions strong (+$90 million), inheritance collections above estimate (+$30

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact coal or clay mines. Furthermore, DEP has located more than 12,100 abandoned oil and gas wells and estimates that there are approximately 200,000 more abandoned wells that have not been identified. These issues can pose significant threats to the

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | July 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund $2,329 n.a. n.a. $2,329 n.a. n.a. Corporate Net Income 93 n

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

dropping below $3.00, the impact fee schedule decreased by $5,000 per horizontal well compared to CY 2018 levels. Estimated impact: -$47.4 million.  New and Existing Wells. The net impact of fees from new wells offsetting lost collections from aging wells that pay lower fees. Estimated impact: +$9.0 million.  Other. The net impact of (1) CY 2018 remittances being overstated due to the collection

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

is generally based on the ownership of the group, as well as the relationships between the entities within the group. Estimating the revenue impact from combined reporting is subject to uncertainty, largely because taxing authorities lack full information regarding the characteristics Revenue for the additional resources required to administer and enforce the proposed filing regime. Revenue Impact For the purpose of estimating the potential revenue impact from combined reporting proposed in last year’s Executive Budget, the IFO surveyed reports, fiscal notes

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CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

change represents a 0.46% increase in CIVEA total base salary. 1 The referenced salary increases represent the administration’s estimated increase in total base salary for the bargaining unit. Individual increases will vary based on the employee’s educational level 2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits

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Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf

contribution of $455. • The employee contribution rate for healthcare benefits will remain at 2.0% of salary. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 0.3 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts that will be initially incurred by a state fund, but will likely be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

based on the year being reported. Special fund disbursements for actual years are reported on a cash basis, while the estimate for the current fiscal year (listed as the "available" year in the financial statement) includes a budgeted amount for the 158,354 -1,350,822 -1,302,242 Source: Governor's Executive Budget, various years. Note: dollar amounts in thousands. Estimates for "available" disbursements are made during the listed fiscal year. Actual disbursements are reported in the following year. 1 Negative

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Sen_Maj_Pol_Comm_Brain_Drain_Workshop_04_30_2019.pdf

2019 Submitted by: Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 1 Year Population Estimate Population Change 1 Births Deaths Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration Net Migration 2000 12,284,173 20 deaths (natural increase) plus net migration plus a small residual (not shown). Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates, Components of Change (Vintage 2018); U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates (Vintage 2009); and PA Dept. of Health

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SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf

22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. May 7, 2020 Page 2 In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 2.1 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of

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RTR-2014-12.pdf

deposits increased by $45 million (9.9%) for the month and by $122 million (11.0%) for the fiscal year. Estimated payments for December, which are largely comprised of the last quarterly payment from corporations that file their taxes on a calendar year basis, increased by $37 million (9.6%). For the fiscal year, estimated payments increased by $102 million (12.2%).  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $130 million (17.4%) for

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Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf

retain employment and their incremental wage gains from moving the minimum wage rate to $12.00 per hour. The analysis estimates that 1.08 million workers that previously earned under $12.00 per hour (referred to as “directly affected” workers in presents the same data for workers who do not retain or secure employment due to the policy change. The analysis estimates that 34,100 positions would be eliminated through a combination of layoffs, a slower pace of hiring and leaving vacant

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Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf

Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Scavello: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed property tax rebate for homeowners in certain age and income ranges. The specified eligible homeowners based on age and income, not to exceed actual school district property taxes paid. The table below displays estimates for (1) the number of homeowners in Pennsylvania that would receive a rebate based on the aforementioned income and age

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

Income. Impact of the TCJA on PA Taxpayers Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 estimates that roughly one-half is not reported on tax returns. 2 Hence, tax data merely reflect what are reported on contractors and self-employed) is 56 percent and rental income is 51 percent. See “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011-2013,” Internal Revenue Service (September 2019). 3 The IRS state tax data include nine income groups

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PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 0.9 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

125 districts in that group). For the bottom quartile, the average share was less than one-fifth. Table 3 displays estimates of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 60 or older, 65 or older, and 70 or older. The estimates assume that 54 percent of total school district property tax is paid by homeowners. The estimates show that homeowners age

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

slide detail Escheats -$55 much lower remittances All Other +$54 realty transfer, inheritance, GRT Total Revision +185 Over IFO official estimate Note: millions of dollars. Gains are relative to IFO official estimate released in June 2018. Sales-Use Tax Collection on Internet Sales November 19, 2018 10 15-16 16-17 17-

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

Modeled after the Congressional Budget Office.  Separate from Executive and Legislative branches. Various mandatory duties.  General Fund revenue estimates.  Coordinate pension analysis. Analyze wage contracts.  Develop Performance-Based Budget plans for agencies. Things the office does not Total 12,711 12,806 12,906 94 100 0.7% 0.8% Source: Data for 2010 (final) and 2017 (estimate) from U.S. Census Bureau. 2025 is a projection by the IFO. August.08.2018 5 2010 PA Population Distribution

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PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 4.2 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. October 8, 2019 Page 3 The IFO bases this analysis on material

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact 5 CVAP stands for citizen voting age population. 9 Data will be on a calendar year basis. DOS estimates that 2019's figure will be 42%, but that is due to DOS only printing and mailing notary commissions once a week

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact are realized by public entities as a result of not having to formally bid purchases. Commodity savings are estimated by comparing contract prices with the manufacturer’s suggested retail or equivalent price.  Procurement: new annual savings. This measure represents monies

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OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 11.3 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

School and Princeton University found that the number of tax incentives has tripled over the last thirty years. The study estimates that states are paying $30 billion per year to offer these incentives. However, it is unknown if the costs associated State Population Barely Grew in 2019 On December 30, 2019 the U.S. Census Bureau released national and state population estimates for 2019. Pennsylvania’s population grew by just 1,067 people, remaining relatively flat at 12.80 million. The population

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

ages over the prior year, with significant growth in the age 18-29 category (21.7%). Federal Balance of Payments Estimated for Federal Fiscal Year 2018 The Office of the New York State Comptroller released a report that examines the distribution losses would impact the agricultural industry, especially nursery operators, and fruit and Christmas tree farms. Income Tax Breaks for Seniors Estimated at $1.5 Billion The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released a report that discusses tax breaks targeted to

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MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf

other agencies (Treasury, Judiciary, Legislature, etc.,) are not included in the analysis. September 20, 2019 Page 2 In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the salary increases, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits that Page 3 The All Funds column represents the total impact of the salary increases. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of

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MER-2015-04.pdf

preserve their share of the mar‐ ket. 1 Drivers in Pennsylvania should benefit from lower gaso‐ line prices this summer, estimated at approximately $2.39 per gallon for the east coast (see chart below). However, predicting gasoline prices after 2015 is usher more oil into world markets, further depress‐ ing prices in 2016. 1 In their baseline reference case, the EIA estimates that the price of crude oil will average $76 per barrel in 2018. Over that same time period, motor gasoline

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MER-2014-04.pdf

S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes state GSP data on an annual basis only. Moreover, the most recent GSP estimates typically lag current activity by one to two years. For example, the most recent estimate for Pennsylvania is for 2012. The BEA will not re‐ lease the estimate for 2013 until June 2014. Turn‐ pike

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MER-2013-11.pdf

was significantly higher than the statewide average for all private industries ($48,150). The Pennsylvania Economy League of Greater Pittsburgh estimates that the proposed ethane cracker could employ approximately 400 individu- als once fully operational. 1 The American Chemis- try Council (ACA) estimates that additional long- term employment gains from the proposed ethane www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Report N o

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ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 2019 Page 3 The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of

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Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdf

IFO Public Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end

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FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 11.8 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. The IFO bases this analysis on material transmitted by the Office of

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

carefully, with an eye toward reducing risk. 2 Liabilities and normal costs in this presentation are based on BEA/FRB estimates, not actuaries’ estimates. Recent years are discounted at 5%. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 “…gradually, U.S. public funds have become

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ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2020-21), $442 (FY 2021-22) and $442 (FY 2022-23) in employer healthcare contributions per employee. In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely to the collective bargaining agreement, the analysis must first project the “baseline” wages and benefits 1.2 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts expected to be reimbursed through federal funds. November 6, 2019 Page 3 The IFO bases this analysis on material

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011-2013” (IRS, September 2019). Tax Comparison Study Page 2 The U.S. Census Bureau compiles annual data on

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008-2010” (IRS, April 2016). Tax Comparison Study Page 2 The U.S. Census Bureau compiles annual data on

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 the local level. 3 See http://www.census.gov/govs/statetax/. 4 See http://www.census.gov/govs/estimate/. 5 See http://www.census.gov/govs/state/. 6 See http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats---Historic-Table-2. 7

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SR2017-03.pdf

See “Effective Federal Tax Rates, 1979 to 1997” (Congressional Budget Office, October 2001) and “Tax Foundation State-Local Tax Burden Estimates: An Overview of Methodology” (Tax Foundation, Working Paper 10, March 2014). The adjustments are based on data from state tax or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008–2010” (IRS, May 2016). Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The U.S

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SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx

impact of a change in payment methods. 3 School Property Tax index includes delinquent taxes. FY 2012-13 is an estimate. 4 Regional CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 of a change in payment methods. 3 School Property Tax growth rates include delinquent taxes. FY 2012-13 is an estimate. 4 Regional CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5

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RTR-2014-06.pdf

in annual payments. • Corporate net income tax revenues in June increased by $38 million (8.8%) from the prior year. Estimated payments were $61 million (18.0%) higher than last June, but the three-month growth rate for the tax is revenues increased by $68 million (6.6%) for the month. Withholding receipts grew by $23 million (3.4%) and quarterly estimated payments increased by $2 million (0.8%). Annual payments increased by $43 million (51.5%) due to an interfund transfer

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

Note: Property tax includes current and interim collections and Act 1 allocations, excludes delinquent collections. FY 2019-20 figures are estimates by the IFO. Average Annual Growth 2005-20 2010-20 Income 3.5% 3.9% Sales 2.6% 3.9% Property Tax to Income. Income excludes any capital gains. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2018 1-Year Estimates. Computations by IFO. CreationDate: 2020-03-13 15:26:03 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate: 2020-03-13 15:29

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $1.71 billion in the upcoming fiscal year. The mandatory (also referred to as the cost-to-carry) and non-mandatory expenditures. The potential FY 2019-20 imbalance is estimated at $1.48 billion if the financial statement incorporated only mandatory expenditures.  Over the last four years of the

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

due to different data source. Share is percentage outflow. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. Persistent Tax Base Erosion 7/14/2017 16 Personal Income Tax.  Wage income less important. Larger share of income 4.3% Note: shares of Pennsylvania “Current Income” as described by the IFO in the methodology to its official revenue estimate.. Source: Historical data from the IRS, U.S. Census Bureau, Social Security Administration and the U.S. Department of Labor

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

Revenue Growth • Capital Stock & Franchise Tax Phased‐Out • Recent Reliance on One‐Time Revenues May 13, 2016 8 IFO Revenue Estimates 2015‐16 2016‐17 Amount Growth Amount Growth General Fund $31,022 1.4% $31,586 1.8% Corporate Net Economic and Budget Outlook 10 May 13, 2016 All Demographic Projections from Penn State Data Center. Reflects U.S. Census Estimates for 2015 • Large Wave of Retirements Next Decade • Demographic Changes Contribute to Tax Base Erosion • Health Care Costs Help Drive

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Erosion. 3 Today’s Presentation 12.May.2016 Demographic Trends All Projections from Penn State Data Center Reflects US Census Estimates for 2015 Working Age Population Projected to Decline Demographic Wave: Retirements Next Decade 4 12.May.2016 Number of Residents

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

3% 15.6% Note: All growth rates are year-over-year. Wage growth for 2017 Q1 and Q2 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in gain = $3.6 billion; average gain = $2,770.  Roughly 54,000 reduced employment opportunities. Other potential impacts:  DHS estimates a $232 million reduction for Medical Assistance.  Higher employer payroll taxes of $265 million.  Less employee turnover? Higher

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

due to different data source. Share is percentage outflow. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. II. Economic Trends  U.S. and PA economic growth downshifts.  Similar to Japan and Europe.  Much due than 3 persons, add $4,160 per additional person. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: lrompalo@hotmail.com CreationDate: 2017-05-25 11:58:48 ModDate: 2017-05-25 11:58

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact Grant data provided by PEMA. 2 SBA applicants are the number of loans approved followed by a roughly estimated number of properties involved. 3 Pennsylvania state grants. 4 Disaster Recovery is a mitigation program where PEMA receives a federal sub-grant

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

has 3 steps ▪ Determine the amount/share of spending incentivized ▪ Determine type of spending and industries affected ▪ Use IMPLAN to estimate multiplier effects, jobs, tax revenues Economic metrics for MTBI, RDTC and KIZ ▪ Gross ROI and net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ GDP | labor earnings | number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Key : incentivization parameter | use consensus of existing research January 23, 2020 3 Organ and Bone

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

a 15% decline from the prior year, and the lowest annual NYMEX price recorded since 2016. In July, the IFO estimated that if the average NYMEX price for 2019 settled below $3.00, then Impact Fee collections would decline by $37 sector. BEA Releases GDP by County For the first time, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released county-level estimates of GDP from 2001 to 2018. In 2018, Philadelphia had the largest real GDP ($110.7 billion) of all Pennsylvania

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

of spending, including food (59.3%), utilities and telecommunications (44.3%) and household supplies and personal care (43.6%). An estimated 20.7% of households reported using the stimulus payments to meet spending needs within seven days of being interviewed. One- continues to decline from a record high of 16.1% in April 2020. Pennsylvania nonfarm-payroll employment grew by an estimated 231,500 jobs (4.5%) since May. When compared to June 2019, nonfarm-payroll employment fell by 620,300 jobs

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MER-2015-02.pdf

job creation is important, the types of jobs creat‐ ed has economic implications too. Since 2009, the U.S. BLS estimates that employment in Pennsylvania increased by 168,100 jobs (3.0%). 1 Most employment growth during this time period occurred 2014 use preliminary December data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Average Annual Wage in 2014 from estimates provided by IHS Economics using Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Author: kmaynard CreationDate: 2015-03-03 15:16:35 Creator

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MER-2015-01.pdf

permanent increase in their disposable income, and will be more inclined to spend the savings. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that consumer savings from lower gasoline prices could range from $3.0 to $3.5 billion for the current fiscal year. 2 Although the benefit to businesses is harder to quantify, the IFO estimates roughly $1.5 to $2.0 bil- lion of savings. The business savings could increase profits, or be passed through

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MER-2014-06.pdf

grew by 0.7 percent from $599.5 billion in 2012 to $603.9 billion in 2013, according to revised estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This is less than the 1.8 percent growth for U growth, 5.8% of GSP) and government (0.1% growth, 10.5% of GSP). BEA recently revised its methodology for estimating state GSP. The latest revision re Ðlects comprehen‐ sive changes to state GSP for 1997‐2012 and in‐ cludes various

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

n.a. (46,630) Notes: Dollar amounts in thousands. Excludes the impact of late or disputed payments. Source: Well counts estimated using data from the Public Utility Commission. 1 Difference from the base collections ($238 million, shown in Table 2) before Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet using Pennsylvania-specific heat content. 5. Post-production cost estimates for wet and dry wells are informed by investor presentations for several regional producers. 6. See 58 Pa.C.S

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

n.a. (44,893) Notes: Dollar amounts in thousands. Excludes the impact of late or disputed payments. Source: Well counts estimated using data from the Public Utility Commission. 1 Difference from the base collections ($221 million, shown in Table 2) before Bentek Energy, and are converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet using Pennsylvania-specific heat content. 4. Post-production cost estimates for wet and dry wells are informed by a Range Resources investor presentation. 5. See 58 Pa.C.S. § 2302

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

Schedule 0 40,226 Notes: Dollar amounts in thousands. Excludes late or disputed payments from prior years. Source: Well counts estimated using data from the Public Utility Commission. 1 Re Ðlects change in revenues from (1) more wells subject to impact noted that many producers hedge prices for a large share of their production (e.g., swaps). 4. Post‐production cost estimates for wet and dry wells are informed by a Range Resources investor presentation from October 3, 2016. 5. See 58

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

963 2,286 323 16.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2010 are final. Data for 2017 are estimates and detail is an IFO projection. Jan.25.2018 3 Independent Fiscal Office Future Demographics: 2017 to 2025 PA Residents or older 2,286 2,821 535 23.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2017 and 2025 are estimates from the IFO Economic and Budget Outlook (Nov. 2017). Jan.25.2018 4 Independent Fiscal Office Multiple Factors Drive PA

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Grove requested an estimated breakdown of the IFO reviewed wage contracts by department. Please see the attached table. Representative Brown requested property tax burden 6 94.9 128.0 310.3 Other 2 3.0 6.4 10.2 13.8 33.4 Notes: ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENTS 1 1 Bargaining Units included are the following: American Federation of State, County and Municipal

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

Cash Income Growth Very Strong January 21, 2021 10 Source: Various state and federal agency websites. See IFO Official Revenue Estimate Methodology (June 2020). Disconnect: Labor Market vs Other PA Indicators January 21, 2021 11 Economic Negatives Economic Positives Payroll Jobs payments and extra withholding day, but includes one-time transfers from special funds. Corporate Net Income: Policy, Shifts and Behavior Estimated payment pattern in 2020 highly unusual  March +3% | June -31% | September -5% | December +35% Short-term factors  Likely

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

administering the plan and the trust shall be paid by the Commonwealth through annual appropriations, made on the basis of estimates from the board. § 5816. Tax qualification. (a) Required distributions.--All payments under this chapter shall start and be made in member prepared by the State Employees' Retirement Board for the periods ending December 31, 2018, and any other statements or estimates of benefits prepared by the board pursuant to the State Employees' Retirement Code from the effective date of this section

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

created is important, the types of jobs created is equally significant. Since 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that net jobs in Pennsylvania have in- creased by 139,700 jobs (2.5%). 1 The job growth during this 756.6 139.7 $49,100 Job Growth and Average Annual Wages by Various Job Sectors 1 Jobs in 2013 estimated by IHS Global Insight based in the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Author: kmaynard

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2002_drop_report.pdf

local government pension plans, Pennsylvania has four times as many local government pension plans as any other state, and is estimated to have more than 25 percent of the total number of public pension plans in the United States. Moreover, Pennsylvania tions which are, in the judgment of the actuary and the governing body of the 5 plan, the best available estimate of future occurrences in the case of each 6 assumption. With respect to economic actuarial assumptions, the assumptions 7 shall

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WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf

State liquid fuels taxes down in FY19-20, projected to decline further in FY20-21.  IFO to release report estimating local revenue losses (county, municipal, school). Recent Trends – Decline and Deceleration July 14, 2020 10 2018 2019 2020 Q4 Q1

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WC-2019-UFCW.pdf

realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. Source: Office of Administration. 2/ Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied

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WC-2019-SEIU.pdf

realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. Source: Office of Administration. 2/ Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied

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WC-2019-AFSCME.pdf

realized regardless of the new bargaining agreement and should not be attributed to the agreement. Source: Office of Administration. 2/ Estimated base salaries and benefits as of July 1. Assumes no change in total complement and includes benefits that are tied

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

9&step=1. Extension of Federal Payroll Tax Cut millions of dollars PA OASDI taxes paid, 2008 29,242 PA estimated OASDI taxes, 2012 30,704 Reduction to OASDI tax rate -16% Full-year impact on disposable income 4,952 Impact

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Supplemental_Table.pdf

Revenue Estimate Comparison Detail IFO Mid-Year Executive Budget IFO less Exec Budget 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 2017-

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

 Independent nonpartisan agency. • Began operations in September 2011. • Analyze fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  Office

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

and Philadelphia from base expansion ($100-$200 million).  Corporate Net Income ($30-$40 million).  Not included in revenue estimates since they do not affect revenue neutrality of proposal. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of

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RTR-2015-01.pdf

because two due dates that fell in January 2014 occur in different months this fiscal year (December and February). Quarterly estimated payments increased by $15 million (4.1%) for the month and $51 million (5.8%) for the fiscal-year-to-

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RTR-2014-10.pdf

are largely from corporations that obtained extensions for tax returns originally due in April, decreased by $14 million (-15.4%). Estimated payments decreased by $9 million (-20.1%) compared to the prior year.  Personal income tax revenues increased by $32

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RTR-2014-03.pdf

month. Most of the increase was in final payments, which were $51 million (41.0%) higher than the prior year. Estimated payments increased by $12 million (5.0%).  Other corporate taxes decreased by $125 million (-6.2%) for the month

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RTR-2013-10.pdf

million) and the personal income tax ($29 million).  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $3 million (2.4%). Estimated payments for the month declined by $28 million (38.9%), but final payments more than offset that decline with an

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf

resulting shift of revenue compared to last year’s pattern will weaken reported revenue growth in February. o Strong quarterly estimated payments resulted in an increase of $54 million (15.2%) in nonwithholding revenues.  Sales and use tax collections were

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Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf

increase is attributable to payments made with annual returns, which increased by $211 million (27.1%). Employer withholding and quarterly estimated payments posted only modest gains.  Sales and use tax collections displayed continuing weakness, declining by $25 million (-3.2%

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Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf

Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Scavello: This letter responds to a request made by your office to provide an additional estimate related to an analysis transmitted by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on August 16, 2019. 1 The new request provides

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

liability of $368 million, while a one-half assumption yields $551 million. For the purpose of its June Official Revenue Estimate and October Update, the IFO had assumed that all loans would be forgiven and would be non-taxable. If that

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

were less impacted by COVID-19. 9 It is noted that the overall reduction applied to each county reflects an estimate of foregone revenues for the current calendar or school year. Some of those missed payments will be received in later

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RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf

or average income level of $57,400 for 2018. Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, 2016-18. (Web) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income Summary, 2016-18. (Web) Independent Fiscal Office Page 5

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RB-2016-02.pdf

in this report, the following resources are available: Pennsylvania Executive Budget (budget.pa.gov/PublicationsAndReports/CommonwealthBudget) Includes background information and estimates for tax expenditures. Provides detailed expenditure information by agency, program and funding source for each department. Includes program performance measures

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

or average income level of $55,000 for 2017. Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, 2015-17. (Web) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income Summary, 2015-17. (Web) Independent Fiscal Office Page 5

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PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf

through FYE 2050.  One increment (0.75 ppt) applied to one-half of the projection period would change the estimated risk mitigation by 11 ppts. 6/28/2017 7 Act 5 Benefit Comparisons 35 Years 25 Years 15 Years Percentage

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $0.99 billion in the upcoming fiscal year. The

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

647 $29,073 Plus: Policy Changes $0 $82 Total $28,647 $29,155 Percent Change 3.5% 1.8% Official Estimate (June 2013) $28,647 $29,116 Percent Change 3.5% 1.6% Dollar Difference $0 $39 fiscal years, millions of

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

profits possible weakness 3.Dec.2014 FY 14-15 Revenues Remain Unclear Description Amount Gains Through November Relative to IFO Estimate $135 Plus: Delayed Liquor Store Profits Deposit 80 Less: Projected Casino Fees -75 Adjusted Revenue Gain 140 At Risk: Oil

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

Total Revenues 4,628 3,822 4,041 4,599 5,159 Dollar amounts are in millions. Title: Initial Revenue Estimate Author: Lauren Mondschein CreationDate: 2015-06-22 11:55:06 ModDate: 2015-06-22 11:55:06 Producer: Microsoft® PowerPoint

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

256 Costs for Childcare/Direct Care $21 $114 Costs for CHIP $6 $23 Net State Spending -$36 -$119 Source: All estimates provided by PA Department of Human Services. Higher Minimum Wage Should Expand Economy A $3.5 billion net income transfer

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

base) excludes internet sales: (1) ecommerce/nexus, (2) digital downloads and (3) marketplace sales. For FY 2018-19, the IFO estimates that internet sales collections from all three sources total $600 million. Sources: Independent Fiscal Office, U.S. Bureau of Labor

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

0 billion Note: Lost labor income includes wages ($20.8b), self-employed income ($3.2b) and tips ($1.5b). IFO estimate. PA Consumer Spending Holds Up, But Recent Weakness November 18, 2020 3 Source: tracktherecovery.org PA Jobs Recover Through July

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PEW_Presentation(Video).pptx

include… • A description of the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design and administration • An estimate of the incentive’s economic and fiscal impact • Policy recommendations pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Indiana pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation

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PEW_Presentation(Video).ppsx

include… • A description of the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design and administration • An estimate of the incentive’s economic and fiscal impact • Policy recommendations pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation example: Indiana pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Evaluation

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact

Hits: 1

PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact

Hits: 1

PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation. 

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

7 billion Note: Lost labor income includes wages ($20.8b), self-employed income ($3.2b) and tips ($1.5b). IFO estimate. PA Consumer Spending Holds Up, But Recent Weakness December 9, 2020 3 Source: tracktherecovery.org PA Payroll Jobs: April Peak

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Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf

presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf

presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf

presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf

presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be

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NGPR-2019Q4.pdf

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production does not directly correspond to DEP data. For CY 2019, December production is estimated by the IFO. All Other New Mexico West Virginia Colorado Wyoming Ohio Louisiana Oklahoma Alaska Pennsylvania Texas 0 5,000

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NGPR-2019Q3.pdf

that could produce at some point in the future). These graphs pertain only to horizontal wells. Figures for 2019 are estimates based on year-to-date spud and production data published by DEP and forecasts by Bentek Energy. Figures for 2012

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NGPR-2018Q4.pdf

composition of total U.S. production by state over the last decade. Production for December 2018 in Figure 6 is estimated by the IFO. State Comparison Figure 6: State Production Comparison (bcf) Table 6: State Production Comparison (bcf) Production Volume Annual

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NGPR-2018Q3.pdf

at some point in the future). These graphs pertain only to horizontal production and well counts. Figures for 2018 are estimates based on year-to-date spud and production data published by DEP and forecasts by Bentek Energy. Figures for 2011

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NGPR-2017Q4.pdf

1 4,088.3 3,771.4 -0.5% -9.4% -7.8% Notes: Data for 2017 through November. December estimated by IFO. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production does not directly correspond to DEP data. 0 5,000 10

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NGPR-2016Q4.pdf

247.4 1,266.4 1,296.5 1,282.4 -1.1% Notes: Data for 2016 through November. December estimated by IFO. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Production does not directly correspond to DEP data. Table 10 displays a

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

to decline. Americans Pay about 86% of Federal Taxes Owed On September 26, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released new estimates on taxpayer compliance. It report- ed an annual gap of $381 billion between taxes owed and taxes collected. The analysis

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

robust total wage and salary growth (4.8%), which ranked 10 th in the nation. -July 2018 - National News Latest Estimate for 2018 Q2 U.S. Real GDP Growth is 4.5% On July 18, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

well impact fee schedule will be higher than if the price was below that threshold. In June 2018, the IFO estimated impact fee revenues of $235 million if the average price exceeded $3.00. If the price fell below that threshold

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

Opioid abuse also reduces worker productivity and increases the utilization of medical and sick leave. Opioid abuse in Pennsylvania was estimated to trigger at least $874 million in additional health care costs annually. 5 However, a more recent study by Pew

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

0% in 2017 Q1 on a year-over-year basis. 2 A final factor could be weak business spending. Analysts estimate that business purchases may comprise one-third of the PA sales tax base. Unfortunately, state- level business profit or purchases

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

consumers with a credit report in each state to yield total debt. Number of consumers for 2016 is an IFO estimate. Total debt figures include HELOC and other loans. Source: FRBNY. United States Pennsylvania Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

no new homes were added to the market. National data reflect similar trends as Pennsylvania. The National Association of Realtors estimates that the U.S. median sales price increased by 7.7% in 2016. 1 The national inventory of homes declined

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

rates. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Pennsylvania State Data Center, “Research Brief: 2016 National and State Population Estimates Released,” December 21, 2016. United States Pennsylvania Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

declined (-1.1%) year-over- year, while personal income tax (PIT) collections exhibited unexpected weakness for withholding (0.9%) and estimated payments (-11.4%). Positive signs from June include gains in corporate tax payments (8.6%) and realty transfer tax remittances

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

Collection Account were $18.5 million, an increase of $10.6 million compared to January 2015.  Personal income tax estimated payments for December and January (the final quarterly installment for calendar year 2015) were $597.8 million, an increase of

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

and plastics and rubber products (8.8% AAGR). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1

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MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf

will be no Social Security COLA for 2016, and the analysis attributes that result primarily to lower energy costs. It estimates that Pennsylvania personal income would increase by $800 million if Social Security recipients were to receive an average COLA for

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

date that occurred in September this year, but which fell in October last year.  The third quarterly installment of estimated taxes for calendar year filers was due in September for both the corporate net income and personal income taxes. 

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

the accommodation and food services (-3.5) and transportation and warehousing (-3.3) sectors. The BEA will release an advance estimate of 2020 Q3 U.S. GDP on October 29. Currently, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model projects an annualized

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

reported 36.4% of the payment would be saved and 34.5% used to pay down debt. Pennsylvanians received an estimated $11.0 billion in EIPs in 2020 and the survey results suggest that $3.2 billion was used for personal

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

Heavily Impacted For the week ending April 11, the U.S. Department of Labor released state data that show that estimated initial claims for unemployment compensation (UC) remain high (238,357), but declined compared to the prior week (277,640; -14

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MER-2015-06.pdf

for real gross domestic product (GDP) by state. The release includes revised figures for 1997 to 2013 and an advance estimate for 2014. The growth of real GDP per capita is a useful metric to compare the performance of states because

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MER-2014-11.pdf

these data from its af Ðiliates throughout the state. Until recently, PAR did not publish data for Pennsylvania home sales. Estimates for such sales were often extrapo‐ lated from data for the northeast region from the Nation‐ al Association of Realtors

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MER-2014-09.pdf

0 ‐1.8 ‐11.9 1.7 AAGR ‐1.2% ‐0.8% ‐3.5% 0.4% Note: 2014 is an estimate based on data through August. AAGR denotes average annual growth rate. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Federal Employees

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MER-2014-07.pdf

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Snapshot: The Changing Composition of Pennsylvania Personal Income The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes quarterly estimates of personal income for the U.S. and all 50 states. State personal income is comprised of (1) net wages

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

fuel– or conversion of existing vehicle fleets to do so. No requirement to actually use alt fuels.  Initial revenue estimate: a $5 million tax credit.  Cost quickly ballooned to $680 million as people discovered how to game the system

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IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf

time measures, the underlying structural imbalance remains and is carried forward into future years,” Knittel said. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of $409 million in the current fiscal year. The imbalance grows to

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IFO ppt.pdf

Release date is November 15 th . – Consider economics, demographics, revenues and expenditures. • Act also requires Office to convene a revenue estimating conference by January 31 st of each year. • For this year, the Office has combined two events. January 18, 2012

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

data on in and out migration by the age of the primary tax filer. These data may be utilized to estimate the income earners and dependents migrating in and out of the state by age group. Tables presenting the IRS migration

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

year (FY) 2018-19. The certified rate is 0.75 percentage points lower than the employer contribution rate used to estimate the state share of PSERS employer contributions in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, which

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Updated revenue estimates suggest policymakers could face a budget imbalance of more than $500 million in the current fiscal year. The projected imbalance

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

GDP Growth Demographic Outlook Projections from the Pennsylvania State Data Center Official State Demographer Based on 2015 U.S. Census Estimates 11/15/2016 7 Three Demographic Takeaways No Surprise: A Rapidly Aging Population.  First Baby Boomers turn age 65

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

line purchases Key dates to watch  August 21: July jobs report for Pennsylvania  Mid-September: 3 rd PIT estimated payment (first two down ~9% YOY) August 19, 2020 5 IFO and Administration Forecast for FY 20-21 August 19

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf

Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

Congressional Budget Office. • Supply non-partisan analysis. • No governing board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at request

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

collection data reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), the IFO estimates that 70 percent of total property tax is levied by school districts and 30 percent is levied by counties and

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2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf

with missing figures will be populated when the contract summaries and data are received from the Office of Administration. The estimates for non-represented and management assume that the AFSCME changes are applied to all full-time, permanent employees classified as

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

miscellaneous items. 3. Latest data available for 2009. Social Security Administration, Table 4.B10, 2009. 4. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that GDP would rise (over a 5-year period) by $1.30 to $1.90 per dollar of budg- etary

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

9 in December. Despite weak retail sales, online shopping or “e- commerce,” continues to increase at a rapid pace. SpendingPulse estimates that online holiday sales in- creased by 8.4 percent over last year. In the third quar- ter of 2002

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

around the same time, PIT collections could be negatively impacted. As of July 1, 2011, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that Pennsylvania had the fourth largest share of pop- ulation age 65 and over (15.6 percent) behind Florida (17

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

its" into a measure of "economic profits." For exam- ple, the measure disallows accelerated tax deprecia- tion but includes an estimate of unreported profits. For 2012 Q2, total corporate profits rose 6.1% over the same quarter from the prior year

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2001_hr266.pdf

3 and employees. 4 (2) Employer cost considerations given the current fully 5 funded status of PSERS and SERS and estimated future 6 contribution rates pursuant to recently enacted legislation. 7 (3) National trends and studies on the degree to which

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Pensions

not less than the employer normal contribution rate. Miscellaneous Provisions • Established an independent fiscal office charged with providing independent revenue estimates and other functions, and required the newly established independent fiscal office to undertake a study to be completed by December

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About IFO

or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental organizations that

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