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Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

Tags: brief, economic, federal, impact, research, stimulus

Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. 

This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.

 

Tags: federal, income, taxes, tcja

Affordable Connectivity Program Ends

Due to the depletion of approved funds, the federal Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) is no longer accepting new enrollments and the last fully-funded program month was April 2024. In 2023, Pennsylvania households received $241 million in ACP funds, an average monthly benefit of $33 per household.  

05/01/2024

Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted

This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP).   

03/21/2024

Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic

This research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19.

12/11/2023

Economic and Budget Outlook

The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2023-24 to FY 2028-29 on November 15 at 1:30 pm. Long-term issues that impact the outlook include the expiration of federal relief programs, a rapidly expanding 75+ age cohort and the depletion of surplus balances that currently generate significant interest income. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

11/08/2023

Expiration of the Enhanced FMAP

The IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after. The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout.

04/06/2023

Emergency Rental Assistance Ends

The IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state.

03/06/2023

Post-Pandemic Child Care Cliff

The IFO posted a second research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the impact that nearly $820 million in federal support had on the child care industry and its employees, and the funding cliff the industry will encounter in the near future.

02/23/2023

SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February

The IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief quantifies the impact from the end of SNAP emergency allotments in February 2023. This research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child.

01/27/2023

Unemployment Compensation by AGI

The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds.

12/21/2022

Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives?

A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives.

09/29/2022

Student Loan Debt Forgiveness

The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.

08/31/2022

Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?

The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates.

03/08/2022

Labor Market Update - September 2021

The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market contracted slightly in August on a year-over-year basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. These data reflect the final month of federal unemployment compensation benefits.

09/20/2021

Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

06/23/2021

Labor Market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

06/03/2021

Economic Impact of federal Stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

05/10/2021

Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

03/11/2021

Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion.  This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.  

10/13/2020

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Presentation Methodology

06/22/2020

Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19

The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy.

04/08/2020

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and official estimates for FY 2019-20 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Methodology

06/21/2019

Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update- August 2018

In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy.

08/24/2018

federal Tax Code Conformity Analysis

The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the General Fund revenue impact from conformity with certain federal tax code provisions.

04/27/2018

Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release

01/29/2018

Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3 Demographic Outlook ......................................................................................................... 5 Dependency Ratios ......................................................................................................... 7 Economic Outlook .............................................................................................................. 9 Federal and State Programs ............................................................................................11 Payroll Employment .......................................................................................................12 Labor Force Trends ........................................................................................................14 Income Trends ..............................................................................................................17 Unspent Federal Stimulus ...............................................................................................18 Consumer Spending Patterns ..........................................................................................20 Inflation and Sales Taxes ................................................................................................21 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................22 Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................................. 23 Personal Income Tax

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Section 4: Economic Analysis and Issues............................................................................... 15 Technical Issues That Affect Economic Impact ................................................................................ 15 Two State Comparisons Using Federal Tax Credit Data .................................................................... 18 Modest Tax Credit Precludes Pennsylvania Economic Analysis .......................................................... 22 Positive Spillover Effects from Rehabilitation Projects ....................................................................... 24 Section 5: Tax rehabilitation. The section also contains an interstate comparison that examines whether state tax credits leverage or motivate additional federal tax credits. Section 5 concludes the review with the tax credit plan, as required by Act 48. A complete list of reports

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

be considered for appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to pro- duce

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

be considered for appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to pro- duce

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

2003 Legislative Session) – Appendix VIII . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313 House Resolution No. 36 (2007 Legislative Session) – Appendix IX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323 Correspondence Requesting Guidance from Federal Authorities – Appendix X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355 “SEC Halts Watch List Tool” Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2007 – Appendix XI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359 Federal Legislation (H. R. 2347 and H. R. 180) – Appendix XII . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407 “Governor Rendell Helps Break Ground on Westinghouse Nuclear Headquarters

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

Outlook .............................................................................................. 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19 Section 4: Revenue into the year ($1.9 billion). The analysis also projects flat income growth for the current calendar year as various federal relief programs end and consumer spending slows. From FY 2021-22 to FY 2025-26, the forecast projects that General

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of business closures, other mitigation efforts and increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of business closures, other mitigation efforts and increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

Boback and Petrarca: This letter responds to your request for an analysis of child welfare program funding in Pennsylvania from federal, state and local sources. Specifically, your letter requests a fiscal analysis of the federal Family First Prevention Services Act (Family First). Family First provides new federal funding for certain evidence- based prevention services, but

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

of seven that has an annual dollar cap on total awards. Similar to other states, Pennsylvania follows the federal tax code to determine spending that qualifies as research and development. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of an increase in QRE over a base period (two simple examples appear on page 8). Pennsylvania follows the federal RDTC definitions for QRE, and firms must certify that their business activities satisfy the criteria defined in statute. 3 If these requirements

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the The forecast assumes modest real economic growth and continued strong inflation relative to historical rates. It also assumes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to implement the higher interest rates and monetary tightening described in recent public statements. Officials have

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the The forecast assumes modest real economic growth and continued strong inflation relative to historical rates. It also assumes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement the higher interest rates and monetary tightening described in recent public statements. Officials have emphasized those

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

0 $31.1 General Fund (Augmentations) 0.2 6.5 7.2 10.0 10.1 10.1 General Fund (Federal) 259.1 253.2 284.2 283.2 278.6 536.6 General Fund (Restricted) 1.2 0.9 1 9 2.9 Industry Partnerships -- 2.8 -- -- -- -- 2.8 Other -- 0.8 3.3 -- -- 0.5 4.6 General Fund (Federal) $5.0 346.1 -- $149.3 -- 34.0 536.6 WIOA Programs -- 238.8 -- -- -- 2.2 241.0 Reed Act

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

4,764.2 General Fund (Augmentations) 624.7 640.0 973.4 634.3 608.3 568.6 General Fund (Federal) 4,497.0 4,969.6 5,772.8 7,425.6 8,441.4 10,343.8 General Fund Restricted, Tobacco Settlement Fund and the Children's Trust Fund. General Fund - State 29% General Fund - Augmentation 4% General Fund - Federal 64% Lottery Fund 2% Other 1% 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Expenditures by Fund General Fund (State) $1.1 $1.8 $1.6 $1.6 $1.5 $3.1 General Fund (Federal) 67.4 50.4 41.8 63.7 60.1 262.6 General Fund (Restricted) 6.7 7.5 7 894.3 1,895.2 1,758.2 1,739.5 1,658.7 2,098.1 Motor License Fund (Federal) 10.0 16.2 18.0 19.2 24.8 89.0 Motor License Fund (Restricted) 1 1,916.8

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

17 states that levy a CNIT require separate 2 However, Iowa allows a deduction for one-half of federal income tax paid so that the effective tax rate is 12.00 * (1 – 0.21 * 0.5) = 10.74 percent. 3 Wolters on July 1, 2020. Source: CCH State Tax SmartCharts (April 2020). 1 State allows corporation to deduct all federal taxes paid from state taxable income. 2 State allows corporation to deduct up to 50% of federal taxes paid from state taxable

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

14,962.9 General Fund (Augmentations) 4.4 4.6 4.3 6.0 5.7 6.2 General Fund (Federal) 1,963.9 2,029.5 2,125.2 2,080.3 2,583.3 7,901.7 Motor License Transportation -- -- 597 -- -- -- 597 Early Intervention -- -- -- -- 337 -- 337 All Other 437 180 402 1,387 312 274 2,991 General Fund - Federal 6,225 446 982 81 56 111 7,902 Food and Nurtrition-Local -- -- 796 -- -- -- 796 ESEA-Title I-Local 865

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

that projections incorporate technical adjustments. For example, corporate net income tax revenues are temporarily low due to conformity with the federal provision that provides for the full expensing of eligible investment placed in service during the last four months of 2010 sharply reduced loans to consumers, businesses and other financial institutions. In an effort to restore liquidity to financial markets, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 150 basis points and established special programs to make funds available to financial

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

children.  Over 2.9 million adults and children were enrolled in Medical Assistance (MA), which includes the federal Medicaid program. Of the MA enrollees, 602,100 individuals received behavioral health services, including approximately 250,000 individuals diagnosed with a substance 1 Funding by Source for FY 2019-20 General Fund - State 21% General Fund - Augmentations 15% General Fund - Federal 63% Special Funds 1% Department of Human Services Overview | Page 8 14-15 Actual 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the 3) $50,000 to $99,999 and (4) $100,000 or more. The analysis also includes an itemization of the federal monies disbursed directly to state residents since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and provides a brief discussion of

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

General Fund appropriations increase by 8.7% largely due to increased levels of education spending and the assumed expiration of federal COVID-relief funds for state Medicaid programs by December 2022. For FY 2023-24, expenditures increase by 5.7% due costs (including pensions and retiree healthcare) and the expected shift of additional Medicaid costs to state funds after the enhanced federal match for COVID relief expires. From FY 2023-24 to FY 2027-28, expenditures expand at an average rate of

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

misuse 7 Vital Statistics.................................................................... Record vital events timely and accurately 8 Women, Infants and Children (WIC)............................. Administer the federal WIC program 9 Maternal and Child Health............................................... Improve the health of women, children and families 10 Health Research................................................................ Promote health research to number of drug-related overdose deaths in Pennsylvania has declined by 18 percent from 2017. Participation in the federal Women, Infants and Children (WIC) program has been declining in Pennsylvania. From FY 2014-15 to FY 2018-19, the number of

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross

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PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf

9 $23.2 General Fund (Augmentations) 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 General Fund (Federal) 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.7 9.6 General Fund (Restricted) 0.0 0.1 0 FY 2021-22. See pages 13 to 14 for more details. Historic Preservation The State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) administers federal historic preservation programs in part- nership with the National Park Service (NPS). As of June 2021, NPS documented 3,508

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue variables. The Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reduction enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue variables. The Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reductions enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that

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Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf

for the intellectual disabilities and long-term living programs. This out- come occurs due to the expiration of the enhanced federal matching rate (FMAP) and a rapidly expanding age 75+ population that requires long-term care. Relative to the enacted budget the projections in this report due to the uncertainty of economic outcomes and unanticipated technical factors, such as changes to federal tax laws and federal matching funds. The economic projections displayed in this report motivate most General Fund revenues through FY

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Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf

appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the May 11, 2023, the Biden administration declared an end to the COVID-19 public health emergency. During the emergency, numerous federal programs injected nearly $200 billion into the state economy, which had a dramatic impact on General Fund revenues. Table 1

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Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf

appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the May 11, 2023, the Biden administration declared an end to the COVID-19 public health emergency. During the emergency, numerous federal programs injected nearly $200 billion into the state economy, which had a dramatic impact on General Fund revenues. Table 1

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

Corporate Profits 3.0% -15.0% -25.0% Table 2 CY 2020 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates Notes: Excludes impact of federal stimulus. Corporate profits are domestic profits for non-financial firms. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 The economic growth rates do not reflect the potential impact of federal stimulus. The federal stimulus will support consumer purchases, the rehiring (or retention) of employees and on-going business operations, and

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

1,573.7 1,434.2 1,540.6 2,152.8 1,770.5 2,165.3 General Fund (Federal) 10,337.4 12,687.3 10,879.5 11,982.4 15,029.4 14,445.1 Tobacco Settlement by Source for FY 2020-21 General Fund - State 28% General Fund - Augmentations 9% Tobacco Settlement Fund 1% General Fund - Federal 62% 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Budget Average

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast for calendar years 2019 and 2020 projects

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

Prior Year .............................................. 3 Subsector Detail: PA Employment Change From Prior Year ......................................... 4 Recent Pennsylvania Economic Trends ..................................................................... 5 Actual and Projected Federal Relief for Pennsylvania ................................................. 6 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth Rates ........................................................... 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ........................................................................ 8 Net Domestic Migration Trends 86 -36 -38 -32.8 -13.4 -14.5 All Government -17 -7 -32 -2.3 -1.0 -4.4 Federal 2 10 1 2.5 9.9 1.2 State 1 -3 -9 0.6 -2.0 -5.8 Local

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Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf

appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the 2025. However, there are notable factors that could slow economic growth during the upcoming fiscal year. These include: (1) the federal deficit and impact on interest rates, (2) expiration (end of 2025) of federal tax cuts under the Tax Cuts and

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

2022, will employ 50 to 60 state employees and enroll 150 to 250 at-risk youth annually. This school is federally funded with a 25 percent state match. 1 The 393 residents includes residents who tested positive more than once. Activity 0 $156.8 General Fund (Augmentations) 34.1 32.1 30.5 30.1 28.2 26.4 General Fund (Federal) 126.4 131.6 134.7 138.8 164.5 211.4 State Treasury Armory Fund 1.5 0.9

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

FY 2019-20 budgeted funds are spending authority and may not reflect actual projected spend- ing. For example, federal spending authority allows for current and potential future funding oppor- tunities within the budget year. Activity Primary Service 1 Clean Water…………………………………………………... Protect and preserve the waters of the Commonwealth 2 Safe Drinking Water……………………………………... Manage the federal and state Safe Drinking Water Act 3 Waterways and Wetlands…………………………….. Regulate dams, reservoirs and water obstructions 4 Chesapeake Bay……………………………………………. Manage state activities

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

A project or service that addresses the decline of a neighborhood or the needs of a vulnerable population. IMPACT ON FEDERAL INCOME TAXES The award of a NAP tax credit in conjunction with a contribution to a qualified nonprofit organization results in a higher federal income tax liability, as compared to a direct donation absent the credit. However, the final cash outlay associated with the

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

s Department of Revenue employed an estimation methodology that used tax return data from Minnesota to match taxpayers based on federal taxpayer identification numbers. 7 Using this method, Wisconsin estimated a base expansion of 4% for non-bank corporate tax collections DOR estimate assumes a different pattern of payments based on their analysis of 2018 tax returns after passage of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), as discussed in a memo transmitted to the House Appropriations Committee (February 28, 2020

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PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf

Expenditures by Fund General Fund (State) $49.9 $40.7 $49.8 $47.7 $46.3 $47.9 General Fund (Federal) 71.5 72.0 104.3 109.4 116.5 309.1 General Fund (Restricted) -- -- -- -- -- 22.7 Comp. & Prob. Gambling 0.2 -- 3.0 3.2 Asst. to Drug and Alcohol Prgs. 43.2 -- -- -- 1.5 44.7 General Fund - Federal 210.4 $66.7 5.6 $3.3 23.1 309.1 State Opioid Response 1 111.2 63.8

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

other human-made disasters. PEMA supports county emergency management agencies by coordinating and engaging the whole community including federal and state partners, volunteer organizations involved in disasters, private sector business community and citizens. The agency develops and maintains a comprehensive plan spent a total of $7.2 million for disaster mitigation and $13.9 million for disaster recovery (both federal and non-federal monies). Activity Primary Service 1 911 Emergency Telecommunication………………Manage and coordinate 911 telecommunication systems 2 Planning, Training and Outreach

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

in this report due to the uncertainty of economic outcomes and unanticipated technical factors, such as changes to federal tax laws and federal matching funds. The economic projections displayed in this report motivate most General Fund revenues through FY 2024- 25. The projections do not

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

Expenditures by Fund General Fund (State) -$0.4 $0.8 -$1.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 General Fund (Federal) 147.0 159.6 109.8 90.1 111.8 109.2 Lottery Fund (State) 366.0 377.9 359 9 315.3 Lottery Fund (Augmentations) 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.0 Lottery Fund (Federal) 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pharmaceutical Assistance Fund 173.6 155.9 145

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

worship and large gatherings to protect the Commonwealth against foreign and domestic terrorism. ▪ Providing forensic laboratory services to approximately 900 federal, state and local law enforce- ment agencies in 2020, completing over 36,000 cases and reducing backlogs. ▪ Completing firearm background million in Coronavirus Relief Funds. These monies, used for personnel expenses, are shown throughout the report in the General Fund (Federal) category. 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Budget Expenditure

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

states. The third section discusses the entities who bear the economic and statutory burden of the tax. Due to recent federal rate cuts, a number of analyses can be surveyed for that purpose. The fourth section considers trends in CNIT revenues states levy a rate between 6.0 and 7.0 percent (inclusive). Because the state CNIT is fully deductible for federal income tax purposes, the effective tax rate (ETR, third column) will be lower by 21 percent, which is equal to

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

137Testimony of Jean Friday, President, PA Alliance for Retired Americans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .141Testimony of Dominic Sgro, Director of District Council 83, American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) Council 13.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .144Testimony of Les Neri, President, Fraternal Order of Police, PA State Lodge.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152Testimony of Jeanne M. Boone, Former President, Philadelphia American Federation of Teachers’ Retirement Chapter. . . . . . . . . . . .154•Appendix 2 – Actuarial Note Provided by David H. Killick,Consulting Actuary, Conrad Siegel Actuaries. . . . . . . . . . . . .157

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PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf

1 93.4 General Fund (Augmentations) 115.1 383.8 422.7 411.2 446.3 509.3 General Fund (Federal) 12.6 11.5 13.1 14.3 67.5 138.9 General Fund (Restricted) -- 2.7 10.3 18 Office of the Budget -- -- 55.7 3.5 -- -- 59.2 Other Augmentations -- -- -- -- 1.1 0.7 1.8 General Fund - Federal -- 1.1 -- 123.2 12.2 2.5 139.0 General Fund - Restricted -- 28.0 -- -- -- -- 28.0 Total 113.4

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf

or lottery purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal income tax returns are adjusted

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

or lottery purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal income tax returns are adjusted

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

or lottery purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal income tax returns are adjusted

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal income tax returns are adjusted to account

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

2019-20 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 13 FY 2020-21 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 14 Growth of Top 3 Revenue Sources ....................................................................................................... 15 Impact of Federal Changes on Tobacco Taxes ................................................................................. 16 Lottery Sales and Net Revenues ............................................................................................................ 17 Gaming Expansion Revenues .................................................................................................................. 18 State and Local Tax Burden 3.7% -- Growth Rate or Annual Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Zillow, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Note: Data for 2020 are forecasts by IFO. UE is

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

Wage | Page 11 Raising the Minimum Wage The administration proposes to raise the state minimum wage from the federal minimum of $7.25 to $12.00 per hour on July 1, 2019, and increase that amount by $0.50 every year 1, 2019, Pennsylvania and 20 other states do not require employers to pay a wage that exceeds the federal minimum of $7.25 per hour. (See Table 2.1 on next page.) By contrast, 13 states and the District of Columbia

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal income tax returns are adjusted to account

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RB-2015-04.pdf

states for 2015 and 2016. For 2015, all adjacent states require that employers pay a minimum wage that exceeds the federal minimum of $7.25 per hour. For New Jersey and Ohio, the state minimum wage is tied to in Ðlation be subject to the 3.07 percent state personal income tax, which would further reduce the gain to $5,295. Federal income tax may also apply, depending on the characteristics of the worker. Table 1 Minimum Wage in Adjacent States 2015

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

Program (PPP) 20.7 10.0 0.0 30.7 Total 64.2 54.9 1.3 120.4 Other Federal Programs Direct State Support 5.9 20.2 0.1 26.1 Direct Local Support 2.6 8.1 0 7 Other Support 6.8 3.0 0.0 9.8 Total 15.2 31.3 0.1 46.5 Federal and State Pandemic Relief Programs Note: Figures in dollar billions. Independent Fiscal Office 7 February 2022 Demographics – Pennsylvania Snapshot Demographics

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index.cfm

2024 This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP). ... (Full Report) FOP, Lodge #92 Wage Contract Analysis Wage Contracts May 21, 2024 Full Report) Affordable Connectivity Program Ends Economics and Other May 01, 2024 Due to the depletion of approved funds, the federal Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) is no longer accepting new enrollments and the last fully-funded program month was April 2024

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

that is (1) deployed in unserved or underserved areas and (2) meets minimum speed require- ments (typically the federal standard of 25 Mbps download and 3 Mbps upload). Certain states also offer miscellaneous broadband related incentives, such as sales tax (e Minimum speed requirements apply and the program expires June 30, 2020. In addition to state incentive programs, the federal government provides 50 broadband related programs that offer grants, loans and other forms of assistance. The programs include support for private firms

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TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf

show that 11 of the 16 waste coal facilities in operation that year were located in Pennsylvania. Most states receive federal Abandoned Mine Land (AML) grants that fund environmental cleanup projects on lands affected by legacy coal mining activities. In federal fiscal year 2021, Pennsylvania received $27.4 million in AML grants, the second largest share, behind Wyo- ming. The IFO

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State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf

data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 they are generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 The adjustments are based on data from federal income tax returns by state (published by the IRS) and Tables SAINC4 and SAINC40 from the National Income and Product

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

Homes in the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. The cost estimates are broken out by type of funding (state, federal or lottery funds). This analysis does not include any state or federal expenditures for non-Medicaid programs without age restrictions (e.g., public safety, state parks, food and nutrition assistance). These programs

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

 Grants to address issues of substance abuse ($3.8 million). PCCD also awarded $64.0 million in federally funded grants to 230 local governments and non-profits. FY 2018-19 Budgeted Expenditures by Activity Note: Expenditures in dollar millions. The 3 Monetary Penalty Endowments Trust Fund 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.3 4.8 Federal Funds 41.4 39.6 43.2 46.6 60.6 156.0 Augmentations 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.3

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

Data ................................................................................................................................ 7 Section 3: Background and Government Policies ................................................................... 13 Agriculture in Pennsylvania ............................................................................................................ 13 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement .......................................................................................... 15 State and Federal Programs ........................................................................................................... 17 Section 5: National and State Studies .................................................................................... 21 Key Findings from National Studies ................................................................................................. 21 Key Findings from Other State Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement. It concludes with a summary of various programs that have been implemented at the state and federal level to reduce agricultural pollution in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Section 4 provides relevant research on the cost and environmental

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RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf

On August 24, 2022, the Biden administration announced plans to forgive a portion of outstanding federal student loans and to enact various changes to the program. The main provisions are as follows: • Borrowers earning less than income thresholds can qualify for up to $20,000 of debt relief. The forgiven debt would not be subject to federal income tax. • The student loan forbearance is extended through December 2022. It is the seventh extension (two under the prior

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PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf

0 152.0 General Fund (Augmentations) 59.7 57.3 59.5 50.0 54.2 54.2 General Fund (Federal) 6.1 9.3 12.1 10.7 7.9 211.4 General Fund (Restricted) 6.7 5.9 4 3.0 3.0 23.5 29.5 Other Appropriations 0.5 11.0 5.7 -- -- 17.2 General Fund - Federal 8.3 48.5 57.6 85.0 12.0 211.4 COVID funds (various) -- 8.8 25.0 75

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

total applications (e.g., tax credits and grants), processed over 2,200 contracts and monitored nearly 1,500 federal grants. Partnered with a variety of economic development partners across the state in order to conduct over 100,000 trainings to Commonwealth workers and government officials.  Leveraged state and federal funds to provide housing assistance and services to nearly 2,000 indi- viduals and families. Activity Primary Service 1 Business Attraction and

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

to the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. At this point, it is not known whether the federal government will enact additional stimulus. If stimulus is enacted, it would increase the revenue estimates contained in this report. Questions or comments the first four months of the fiscal year. An important factor that drives that outcome is the substantial federal stimulus monies that have been injected into the state economy. Table 1.2 contains (1) IFO estimates of foregone labor income due

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

for the most recent refinances are not yet available. However, a Freddie Mac Research Note from March 2019 analyzed the Federal Housing Finance Agency National Survey of Mortgage Originations for loans originated from January 2013 through December 2016. 1 For borrowers excludes capital gains, which will accrue disproportionately to high income households. From 2012 to 2018, total reported capital gains on federal income tax returns increased by roughly 56 percent, or 7.7 percent per annum during the six- year time period

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

major program of caring for seniors for FY 2017-18 actual and FY 2019-20 budgeted expenditures. You requested that federal funds and the Lottery Fund be itemized separately from all other state funds.  For the same years, actual and Homes in the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. The cost estimates are broken out by type of funding (state, federal or September 23, 2019 Page 2 lottery funds). This analysis does not include any state or federal expenditures for non-

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PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf

898.0 971.3 Lottery Fund (Augmentations) 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Lottery (Federal) -- -- -- -- -- 140.0 Motor License Fund 1 45.1 44.3 43.2 46.4 45.0 58.9 State Gaming in dollar millions. Actual expenditures are listed in the year the expenditure was recorded. 1 Contains a small amount of federal funds. Agency Overview | Page 5 Appropriations Tax Admin. Enforc. Lottery PTRR Admin. Total General Fund - State $100.1 $42.1

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

5 $112.5 General Fund (Augmentations) 11.1 14.4 13.1 14.7 15.2 9.7 General Fund (Federal) 20.8 24.0 21.8 50.6 59.9 92.3 General Fund (Restricted) 19.0 19.5 19 Land Scrip Fund 1 -- -- -- -- 55.0 -- 55.0 Ag. Cons. Easement Purch. Fund 2 -- -- -- -- -- 40.0 40.0 General Fund - Federal 36.6 26.5 -- 5.2 -- 24.1 92.4 All Other Appropriations 12.1 0.7 -- 23.5 5

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MER-2014-09.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf

August 24, 2018 Page 2 the federal income tax returns filed by Pennsylvania residents, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is unable to simulate the number of taxpayers that would be affected and the potential increase in after- tax income due to the federal tax cut. Therefore, the data from Table 1 represent the upper limit on the number of taxpayers that could be

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State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf

data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 they are generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 The adjustments are based on data from federal income tax returns by state (published by the IRS) and Tables SAINC4 and SAINC40 from the National Income and Product

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 The adjustments are based on data from federal income tax returns by state (published by the IRS) and Tables SAINC4 and SAINC40 from the National Income and Product Accounts. The

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 The adjustments are based on data from federal income tax returns by state (published by the IRS) and Tables SAINC4 and SAINC40 from the National Income and Product Accounts. The

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SR2017-03.pdf

Page 1 Methodology This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines similar to sales taxes because they are generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 .See “Effective Federal Tax Rates, 1979 to 1997” (Congressional Budget Office, October 2001) and “Tax Foundation State-Local Tax Burden Estimates: An Overview

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf

use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100% bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

2013 2013 Revenue Conference 3 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real Gross State Product May 2012 1.9% Global Insight. Primary Economic Driver: Consumer Spending  Consumers must drive economic growth. o Comprise 70% of economic activity. o Federal, state and local budgets are constrained. o Weak overseas demand.  Sales and Use Tax collections have been very weak

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RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations child care for low-income families to meet the requirements of the Child Care Development Fund (CCDF), which is a federal and state partnership implemented through the Child Care Development and Block Grant of 2014 (CCDBG). 2 Under the block grant

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

 Collection and sale of surplus state property and provision of purchasing opportunities for certain new and used federal equipment to local governments, law enforcement agencies and eligible non- profit organizations; recycling of used Commonwealth property and materials when possible.  allocate portions of rental charges, utility and facility maintenance costs to other funding sources including special funds and federal funds, which may reduce General Fund appropriations required to pay for these costs. Develop an occupancy report. This review recommends that DGS

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Mortgage Originations Grow 87% as Homeowners Refinance The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released household debt and credit data for 2019 Q4. Mortgage origi- nations grew by 87% 6.6% across all ages over the prior year, with significant growth in the age 18-29 category (21.7%). Federal Balance of Payments Estimated for Federal Fiscal Year 2018 The Office of the New York State Comptroller released a report

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf

tax revenues were below forecast likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the large federal corporate rate cut enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The CNIT overprediction error (-$193 million 518 million, or 11.2% of actual General Fund revenues. 2 The overage was attributable to the enactment of additional federal stimulus (Lost Wage Assistance Program, the Consolidated Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan) after the release of the estimate

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office May 26, 2021 Key Issues and Questions Economy overperforms due to massive federal transfers ▪ Nearly $160 billion of federal monies injected into state Four key questions ▪ What happens when federal monies are removed? ▪ Is there a labor shortage? ▪ Is

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

applies the proposed rate reduction to the IFO’s most recent CNIT baseline projection (includes impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017). The estimate includes a behavioral impact that partially offsets the revenue loss due to the reporting. Consol- idated reporting allows related affiliates/firms to combine tax reports into one filing, similar to the federal consolidated return, rather than combine income from all states in which the taxpayer may or may not have nexus. 18-19 19-

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RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf

brief is the fourth in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The federal government utilizes federal medical assistance percentages (FMAPs) to determine reimbursement rates to states for Medicaid and the Children’s Health

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

22, 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was signed into law. The act made significant changes to the federal individual income and corporate net income tax codes that generally became effective for tax year 2018. Recently, the IRS released state level tax data that reveal the impact that tax law changes had on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. This research brief provides a general analysis of those impacts and how tax law changes affected federal income

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TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf

rural growth fund. 9 The jobs must have been created by the rural business, pay at least 150% of the federal or state minimum wage (whichever is greater), and not located in the state at the time of the initial investment The jobs retained must have existed in the state prior to the initial investment, pay at least 150% of the federal or state minimum wage (whichever is greater), and would have been lost or moved out of the state without the

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100% bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

2018. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts by IFO. May.01.2018 7 Recent PA Economic Growth Rates 2017.1 2017.2 2017 12.4% 10.0% Note: All growth rates are year-over-year and based on the latest published values from federal agencies. Net job gains based on non-seasonally adjusted data and exclude self-employed individuals. Sources: U.S. Bureau of

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

FY 2018-19. Pennsylvania ranks 14 th nationally in total bank assets, which includes assets of state and federally chartered banks in the state. Nationally, 79 percent of all banks are chartered and supervised by state regulators and they provide half well as allow the condition of Pennsylvania state-chartered depository institutions to be benchmarked with other states and federal reg- ulators. (See page 7 for more discussion on CAMELS ratings.) Publish depository institution fee schedules and provide a comparison to selected

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts.  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data and tax reform.  Federal tax cut: economic and General Fund impact.  Revenues: FY 17-18 update; preliminary look at FY 18-19. Public Social 14.3 11.2 23.7 24.6 Leisure-Hospitality 5.1 7.5 13.1 17.9 State-Federal Govt -2.0 0.3 0.9 -2.0 Local Government -7.3 -6.8 -0.9 -1.8 All

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office February 8, 2013 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan The office does not seek to duplicate services provided by the standing committees, but it seeks to use available state, federal and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. Reports The IFO publishes

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf

the tax credit. It then discusses the application process and the administration of the tax credit. 2 Enterprise zones include Federal Opportunity Zones, Keystone Opportunity Zones (KOZs), Keystone Opportunity Ex- pansion Zones (KOEZs) and Keystone Opportunity Investment Zones (KOIZs). 3 This July 2008). 14 “New York State Brownfield Cleanup Program,” Redevelopment Economics (February 2014). Section 3: State Comparison | Page 17 The Federal Brownfields Tax Incentive, Case Studies and Analysis of Impacts (2015) Another report by Redevelopment Economics and prepared for the New

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts May 26, 2020 2 February 29 First U.S. death from 9.4% 3.0% n.a. Note: IHS Markit forecast released May 12. CBO released May 19. Large Injection of Federal Monies May 26, 2020 5 Estimate Estimate Individual Provisions Federal Grants Economic Impact Payments $10.8 State Governments $5.8

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts June 22, 2020 2 February 29 First U.S. death from 9.4% 3.0% n.a. Note: IHS Markit forecast released May 12. CBO released May 19. Large Injection of Federal Monies June 22, 2020 5 Estimate Estimate Individual Provisions Federal Grants Economic Impact Payments $10.8 State Governments $5.9

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget and (2) the extension of the moratorium on federal student loan repayments and the forgiveness of up to $20,000 in federal student loan debt announced on August 24, 2022. The adjustments are summarized in Table 1 and additional detail can be

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Losses 7 Pennsylvania Income Sources 8 State Metric Comparison 9 Pennsylvania Demographic Trends 10 State Migration Comparison 11 Revenues and Federal Income Tax Reform Revenues Through January 12 Revenue Uncertainty for FY 2017‐18 13 Major Revenue Sources Over Time 14 State Comparison ‐ Tax Burdens 15 Simulation: Impact of Federal Tax Reform 16 Pennsylvania Federal Income Tax Data (2015) 17 Natural Gas Trends Production, Price and Impact Fee Trends 18

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure offsets State budget ▪ What are the revenue trends? ▪ What is the longer-term CES State and Metro Area Employment. Years Needed for Full PA Jobs Recovery February 19, 2021 11 Actual and Projected Federal Relief for PA February 19, 2021 12 2020 2021 Notes Payments to Individuals State Unemployment Comp $5.2 $1.6

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

Government tightening. o Firms not investing due to uncertainty; weak demand. Federal and state gov’ts unlikely to contribute. o Federal – debt ceiling debate, continuing sequester. o State and Local – pensions and health care benefits. o Monetary Policy - pull back to 0.5% 3 Net Exports 0.1% 0.1% -0.4% 4 Government -0.2% -0.4% 0.0% a Federal -0.1% -0.4% 0.0% b State-Local -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% Source: IHS Global Insight and

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

2 General Fund (Augmentations) 6.0 6.2 6.6 7.0 6.5 5.5 General Fund (Federal) 1.5 1.7 2.9 1.5 3.9 20.4 General Fund (Restricted) 53.1 55.7 59.2 60 66 General Fund (Augmentations) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 General Fund (Federal) 1.01 0.22 1.66 0.75 2.58 17.40 Total 3.90 4.20 6.25 5.17 5

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MER-2014-07.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf

fully taxable fully taxable exempt Colorado $20,000/$24,000 $20,000/$24,000 depends on income Connecticut same as federal same as federal depends on income Delaware $2,000/$12,500 $2,000/$12,500 exempt Florida n.a. n.a. n.a

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

of the 2017 tax act on the economy and budget  A primer about how CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs Explaining Analytical Methods: Providing General Information 6 CBO At other times, CBO explains its methods by providing technical appendix describing how CBO analyzed the distribution of household income  A slide deck about modeling the subsidy rate for federal single-family mortgage insurance  An appendix describing how CBO estimates the operating costs of Air Force aircraft  A

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up well, and actual estimate, and despite the current legal challenge, we have not removed it because the final outcome is not clear. Second, federal tax law changes make it difficult to discern underlying trends in corporate net income and personal non-withholding taxes because

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FOSCEP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf

General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP). (See Table 1 and Methodology on the last page.) The analysis uses the the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: May 21

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FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP). The analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

by any other government body pertaining to pension or retirement benefits or rights of school employees. (g) References to certain Federal statutes.--References in this part to the IRC or the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act of 1994 (Public 22, 1965 and prior to July 1, 1975 administers, supervises, or teaches classes financed wholly or in part by the Federal Government so long as he continues in such service. (4) Any part-time school employee who has an individual retirement

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

data necessary to thoroughly evaluate the program are not available. ▪ Qualifying income limitations for scholarship recipients are roughly 500% of federal poverty level (FPL) for a family of four. This level is higher than all other states that have an income The EOSTC program prioritizes applicants who received a scholarship in the prior year, have household income below 185% of the federal poverty level (FPL) or have household income below 185% of the FPL and reside in a district that meets any

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Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf

2.4% Notes: Change Payroll Jobs for 2023 assumes a -40k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Blue shading is an estimate (some data available) or projection (no data available). Latest PA Economic average rate for quarter). Change Payroll Jobs assumes a -40k revision to preliminary data based on research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. All Jobs include self-employed. Annual Growth Philly CPI-U • Peaks June 2022 at 8.8%

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

Total -25.5 excludes any unreported income UC and Individual Rebates State UC $5.2 average of $330 per week Federal Pandemic UC 15.9 program has concluded Other Federal Assistance 10.2 PUA ($7.0b), LWA ($1.8b), PEUC ($0.9b) Economic Impact Payments 11.0 goes to 6

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RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf

On June 3, 2023, the federal Fiscal Responsibility Act was signed into law. The act suspends the U.S. debt ceiling limit through January 1, 2025 student loan repayments. For Pennsylvania residents with student loan debt, the latest data from the Enterprise Data Warehouse and the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of New York show: ▪ 1.9 million borrowers with $66 billion of total federal student loan debt

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

Service 11.1 22.6 26.9 30.0 Leisure-Hospitality 7.9 12.4 8.6 10.8 State-Federal Gov’t 0.2 1.0 -0.6 -0.3 Local Gov’t -6.7 -2.2 0.6 -1 Figures for 2018 based on preliminary data through December. Factors That Could Impact Growth Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal shut down (?)  Federal tax cut / refunds  Consumer sentiment  Stock market volatility Maintain / Boost  Strong labor market

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

over $50, motor vehicle theft and arson. 2 Average annual growth rate. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Bureau of Investigation. Calculations by the IFO. State Benchmarks | Page 6 in 2006. This trend contrasts with large reductions in the incarceration 2.1 2.2 Manufacturing Fund 57.8 64.7 62.2 68.8 76.4 82.4 Federal Funds 3.9 5.4 5.1 3.4 4.9 4.0 General Fund Augmentations 5.5 23.6 5.7

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MER-2015-03.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2013-12.pdf

of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes- simism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

further questions, please do not hesitate to contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director Enclosures 3 Table A Pennsylvania Federal Tax Returns by Age of Primary Income Filer and Domestic Migration from 2013 to 2014 Number of Federal Tax Returns in/from Pennsylvania Net Migration as a share of total returns in 2014 Age Group of Primary Tax

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

lost, please wait and we will attempt to re-establish. November 15, 2022 1 Guest Presentation – Phillip Swagel, CBO Director Federal Budget Outlook Phillip L. Swagel became the 10th Director of the Congressional Budget Office on June 3, 2019. Previously, he staff and senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers in the White House and as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board and the International Monetary Fund. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and his A

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

The office does not intend to duplicate services provided by the standing committees, but it seeks to use available state, federal and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. Independent Fiscal Office ‐ Overview 11.2% 12.1% 15.2% 11.9% 9.1% n.a. Note: Corporate profits exclude foreign profits and the Federal Reserve, but includes S corporations. The S&P 500 Index measured last trading day of quarter. The value for 2016

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

considers collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth and the following six labor unions: 1 • Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA) • Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) • Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania • Pennsylvania State Education Association the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. 1 The IFO has combined the analysis of these collective bargaining agreements due to the small number of employees

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2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf

2.4% Notes: Change Payroll Jobs for 2023 assumes a -40k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Blue shading is an estimate (some data available) or projection (no data available). Latest PA Economic average rate for quarter). Change Payroll Jobs assumes a -40k revision to preliminary data based on research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. All Jobs include self-employed. Annual Growth Philly CPI-U • Peaks June 2022 at 8.8%

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf

growth. The new Pennsylvania child and dependent care enhancement tax credit is equal to 30% of the credit claimed for federal tax purposes. For tax year 2020 (latest published data), 189,500 Pennsylvania filers claimed $101 million of federal tax credits, an average of $534. The maximum federal credit that can be claimed peaks at $1,380 (two or

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior to rate

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior to rate

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

Future years: potential deficits likely grow due to aging population, rising interest rates and modest revenue growth 1 Impact of Federal Tax Reform on Pennsylvania Anticipate large increase in PA disposable income for FY 2018-19  US personal income tax Miscellaneous issues  Static vs. dynamic revenue impact  Most non-financial business activity in Pennsylvania is non-corporate 2 Federal 100% Bonus Depreciation Policy has a significant impact on total U.S. tax deductions claimed  100% federal bonus depreciation

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PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf

322.4 302.5 360.1 249.3 478.3 Expenditures by Fund General Fund (State) -- -- -- 86.5 -- -- General Fund (Federal) 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.0 Med Care Avail. & Red. Error Fund 190.7 Fund. IROF is Insurance Regulation and Oversight Fund. 1 Reinsurance payments to entities (state) and reinsurance waiver pass through funds (federal) are payments to insurance companies in relation to the 1332 Waiver Program. Product and Rate Review, $151.5, 32% Consumer

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

2021 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office June 17, 2021 Three Issues Dominate Economic and Budget Outlook What happens when federal support expires? ▪ Nearly $160 billion of federal monies injected into state ▪ What happens to income levels when support is removed? When do workers return? Will jobs be

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

regulations. Since 2006, an average of ten banks per year have closed or been acquired, according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Two major economic forces have contributed to consolidation in the banking industry. First, the financial crisis a weaker financial position, and therefore open to acquisitions by larger banks. Second, in response to the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve required banks to hold greater stores of capital, and smaller banks became less viable as the capital requirements had

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits  An FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  New federal funds available through December 2024 (much is restricted)  IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf

Inflation Likely to Persist Due to Strong Demand and Accumulated Savings In late November, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified that inflation would persist longer than anticipated. This monthly update presents data for factors that drive foregone rent imputed to current homeowners. Rent imputed to homeowners is 26% of the Philadelphia CPI-U. Row 3 displays Federal Reserve holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Debt holdings increased by $2.9 trillion (80%) from October

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

Over $25 Billion in Unemployment Benefits Since March On August 11, the Wall Street Journal released an analysis of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) program. From early April to July 31, the federal government spent nearly $250 billion on the extra $600 per week unemployment benefits. Data from the Department of Labor and

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MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf

salary increases consistent with the new collective bargaining agreements. For the purpose of this analysis, the IFO applied the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) ratified contract to all full-time, permanent employees classified as management (except Department the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For

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MER-2014-02.pdf

of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes‐ simism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf

End 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Payments to Individuals or Businesses State Unemployment Compensation $5.2 $0.8 -- -- $6.0 Federal Pandemic Unemployment Comp (FPUC) 16.2 8.8 $0.1 $0.0 25.1 Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) 7.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 30.7 Total 64.8 57.3 8.0 1.0 131.1 Other Federal Programs Direct State Support $5.9 $20.2 $0.2 $0.0 $26.3 Direct Local Support 2.6 8

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

Purpose: provide assessment of long-term fiscal outlook Method: assume economy reverts to long-term trends Key Themes and Issues Federal Stimulus, Labor Force, Inflation November 15, 2021 1 Today’s Guest Speaker – Emily Maher, NCSL Navigating the Waters: How States Emily Maher is a senior policy specialist with the Fiscal Affairs Program at NCSL, where she specializes in state budgets, federal stimulus funds, state and local relations, and economic development topics. She is a staff liaison to NCSL’s Labor and

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure offsets State budget ▪ What are the revenue trends? ▪ What is the longer-term 20 Apr Jul Oct Jan-21 Apr Jul Oct 3rd EIP 1st EIP 2nd EIP EIP is economic impact payment Federal and State Pandemic Relief Programs March 4, 2022 14 CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 Total Payments to Individuals and

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Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf

a full committee. The agency usually produces 600 to 800 cost estimates each year. Those estimates include the impact of federal mandates on state, local, and tribal governments. CBO also fulfills thousands of requests for technical assistance as lawmakers draft legislation Legislative Proposals 4 For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/about/products. CBO’s reports cover every major area of federal policy, including spending programs, the tax code, and budgetary and economic challenges. The reports often present options for changes in

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AFSCME_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) Council 13. (See Table 1 and Methodology on the last page.) The analysis the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: • For the

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Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 12, 2016 Fund. • For Other State Funds, the total annual costs are nominal. The three-year total is $0.1 million. • For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.3 million (FY 2016-17), $0.8 million (FY 2017-18) and $1.5

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Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and SEIU Local 668. The analysis uses the FY 2017- 18) and $12.1 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $20.8 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $5.1 million (FY 2016-17), $16.1 million (FY 2017-18) and $29.5

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Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 12, 2016 million (FY 2017-18) and $0.1 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $0.3 million. • For Federal Funds, the total annual costs are nominal. The three-year total is $0.1 million. • For All Funds, the total

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Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and AFSCME Council 13. The analysis uses the FY 2017- 18) and $72.7 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $125.2 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $5.3 million (FY 2016-17), $16.8 million (FY 2017-18) and $30.5

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: • For the 2024-25), nominal (FY 2025-26) and $1 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $1 million. • For Federal Funds, total costs are nominal (FY 2023-24), nominal (FY 2024-25), $1 million (FY 2025-26) and $1 million

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the applicable fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: • For the million (FY 2022-23) and $0.2 million (FY 2023-24). The four-year total is $0.3 million. • For Federal Funds, the total costs are none (FY 2020-21), $0.1 million (FY 2021-22), $0.3 million (FY 2022-

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the applicable fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For FY 2022-23) and $0.2 million (FY 2023-24). The four-year total is $0.6 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are nominal (FY 2020-21), $0.1 million (FY 2021-22), $0.1 million (FY 2022-

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UFCW_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: October 25, 2023 Page 2 • There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period. • For Other State Funds, total costs are $7 million (FY 2023-24), $13 million

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

Act of 2010. That Act temporarily reduced the payroll taxes that employers withheld from employee paychecks and remitted to the federal government. On December 23, 2011, the President signed the “Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011.” That Act extends How will the proposed extension affect Commonwealth residents and tax revenues for the current and subsequent fiscal years? BACKGROUND The Federal Insurance Contributions Act tax (FICA, also known as the payroll tax) has two parts: (1) the old age, survivors and

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

5) the coordinator has conducted a site visit.  First page and signed pages of the applicant’s federal tax returns for the base year and comparable tax years.  DOR issued Tax Compliance Form.  Tax Credit Sale and Assignment to promote economic and community development around qualified institutions of higher education, nonprofit organi- zations affiliated with a federal agency or regional higher education centers. Entities are designated as “qualified” if they demonstrate the intention to invest financially in the geographic

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf

paying less overall, and higher income groups paying more. Note that the Ohio tax generally applies more broadly and uses federal adjusted gross income (AGI) with additions and deductions as the tax base. The computations below merely apply the Ohio rate liability due to tax forgiveness. 1 Ohio taxpayers can deduct the first $250,000 of business income included in their federal adjusted gross income. Any income not deducted is taxed at a flat 3.00% rate. That deduction was not included

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

the true economic burden.  Business vs. non-business distinction is not meaningful in many cases.  Excludes impacts on federal income taxes. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 18 Table 7 Change in 75% Source: Property Tax Rates from MN Taxpayer's Association. Rates are for 2009. Other rates are statutory maximums from Federation of Tax Administrators for 2012. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 27 Federal

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SEIU_Local_668_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: • For the 25), $10 million (FY 2025-26) and $12 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $33 million. • For Federal Funds, total costs are $33 million (FY 2023-24), $60 million (FY 2024-25), $82 million (FY 2025-26) and

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SEIU_Local_668_UC_Referees_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: • For Federal Funds, total costs are $0.5 million (FY 2023-24), $0.9 million (FY 2024-25), $1.2 million (FY

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SEIU_HCPA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: • For the 25), $1 million (FY 2025-26) and $1 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $4 million. • For Federal Funds, total costs are $2 million (FY 2023-24), $4 million (FY 2024-25), $5 million (FY 2025-26) and

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SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Other State Funds over the four-year period.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.2 million (FY 2019-20), $0.4 million (FY 2020-21), $0.6 million

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SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. 1 Those costs can be summarized as follows:  FY 2021-22) and $0.6 million (FY 2022-23). The four-year total is $1.5 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $1.5 million (FY 2019-20), $3.2 million (FY 2020-21), $5.0 million

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior to rate

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RB_2024_05_ACP.pdf

In December 2021, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) launched the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), which provides a discount of up to $30 per month toward one member qualified under any of the following criteria: 1 ▪ Has income that is at or below 200% of the federal poverty guidelines; ▪ Participates in certain assistance programs, such as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Medicaid, Federal Public Housing Assistance, Social

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RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdf

brief is the third in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commonwealth and federal government enacted a renter eviction moratorium to provide temporary relief to renters who may have lost employment. The moratorium prohibited

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RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdf

On December 16, 2022, the IRS released state-level data for federal income tax returns for tax year 2020. These data provide the most complete snapshot of income levels for Pennsylvania residents who received unemployment compensation (UC) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. For that year, the federal government enacted several special UC programs including the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program for self-employed (normally ineligible), the Federal

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RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdf

Under the ongoing federal public health emergency (PHE), the SNAP income phase-out has been suspended and all households that qualify receive an extra 2022, the Department of Human Services (DHS) announced that SNAP benefits will expand to households up to 200% of the federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG), up from 160% previously. For federal fiscal year (FFY) 2022-23, 200% FPIG is a monthly

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RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf

U.S. Census Bureau. The data source is based on tax and administrative returns and records filed with state and federal agencies (compared to much smaller samples used for labor force participation rates) and reflects nearly 90% of total payroll employment (but excludes self-employed and federal government workers) included in the published Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Given the broad coverage, the data source

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RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf

U.S. Census Bureau. The data source is based on tax and administrative returns and records filed with state and federal agencies (compared to much smaller samples used for labor force participation rates) and reflects nearly 90% of total payroll employment (but excludes self-employed and federal government workers) included in the published Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Given the broad coverage, the data source

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PSEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: December 14, 2023 Page 2 • There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period. • For Other State Funds, total costs are $0.2 million (FY 2023-24), $0

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PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There is no impact on the General Fund, the Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period.  For Other State Funds, the total costs are $0.1 million (FY 2019-

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PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the applicable fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For FY 2022-23) and $0.6 million (FY 2023-24). The four-year total is $2.4 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.9 million (FY 2020-21), $1.2 million (FY 2021-22), $1.2 million

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

revenue growth: 16-17 (+1.6%) | 17-18 (+3.9%). FY 18-19: tax revenue growth of +4.2%.  Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy.  Corporate base expansion enhances revenues.  Tight labor market sustains wage growth for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.12.2018 5 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s

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PLEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: November 9 27). The four-year total is $6 million. • There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration

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PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period.  For Other State Funds, the total costs are $0.4 million (FY 2019-

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PDA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: December 7 impact on the Motor License Fund. • For Other State Funds, the impact is nominal over the four-year period. • For Federal Funds, total costs are $1 million (FY 2023-24), $2 million (FY 2024-25), $3 million (FY 2025-26) and

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PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. 1 Those costs can be summarized as follows:  estimates that these changes will cost $1.4 million over the contract term. November 6, 2019 Page 3  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.6 million (FY 2019-20), $1.3 million (FY 2020-21), $2.0 million

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf

Issues Across Reports Agencies often lack outcome data for state-funded programs ▪ In general, more outcome data are available for federally funded programs ▪ Condition of funding | Defined measures | Dedicated resources Use of federal stimulus funds will significantly impact state program outcomes over multiple years ▪ PDE – ARP ESSER funding for K-12 schools ($5

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

Paid -1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 12.0% 8.0% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) -517 -468 -444 -423 -362 Federal Stimulus ($ billions) $12.6 $3.6 $32.3 $10.8 $5.4 Philadelphia CPI-U All Items 0.4% 0 year-over-year change and compares to a no-pandemic scenario. Payroll jobs figure for 2021.3 reflects July only. Federal stimulus includes PPP loans, expanded SNAP, advance child tax credit payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates

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OPEIU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: December 7 four-year period. • For Other State Funds, total annual costs are nominal. The four-year total is $1 million. • For Federal Funds, total costs are nominal (FY 2023-24), $1 million (FY 2024-25), $1 million (FY 2025-26) and $1

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OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For 2 million (FY 2022-23). The four-year total is $0.5 million. November 6, 2019 Page 3  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.4 million (FY 2019-20), $0.8 million (FY 2020-21), $1.2 million

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

on PA Taxpayers The IRS released state-level data for tax year 2018 that reveal the significant impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania residents that filed a federal income tax return. Major provisions of the act include: lower tax rates, a $10,000 cap on the state and

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MER-2014-03.pdf

of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes‐ simism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

ITEP The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization that works on federal, state, and local tax policy issues. ITEP's mission is to ensure that elected officials, the media, and the general all retirement income  Tax forgiveness credit  Sales tax base excludes groceries State Corporate Income Taxes in Decline  Federal & state corp taxes falling as % of GSP, income, total taxes  Decline is more rapid at state level  Collections

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ISSU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: December 6 27). The four-year total is $34 million. • There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration

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ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four-year period.  For Other State Funds, the total costs are $1.7 million (FY 2019-

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Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf

2023 or 2024 ▪ April WSJ Survey of Economists: 61% expect recession next 12 months ▪ Debt ceiling impasse resolved before default ▪ Federal Reserve largely done with rate hikes ▪ No collapse in asset markets: stocks and housing 2 Student loan repayment moratorium ends June Dec 22 EIP 1 EIP 2 EIP 3 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. EIP is economic impact payment. Source: Federal Reserve Board. billions of dollars figures in italics are effective rates for cards w/ balance 16.2% 16.7% 16

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Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf

2023 or 2024 ▪ April WSJ Survey of Economists: 61% expect recession next 12 months ▪ Debt ceiling impasse resolved before default ▪ Federal Reserve largely done with rate hikes ▪ No collapse in asset markets: stocks and housing 2 Student loan repayment moratorium ends June Dec 22 EIP 1 EIP 2 EIP 3 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. EIP is economic impact payment. Source: Federal Reserve Board. billions of dollars figures in italics are effective rates for cards w/ balance 16.2% 16.7% 16

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

Affordable Care Act (PPACA)  Provision allows states to expand their MA program.  Individuals with incomes up to 133% federal poverty line (FPL).  2014-16 federal government picks up 100% of costs.  Phase-down process through 2019, 90% fed/10% state. The Economic and Budget

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FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf

modeling software! October 3, 2023 1 I. Student Loan Repayment Moratorium March 2020 moratorium (no payments, no interest accrues) ▪ Most federally-held student loans | no private loans ▪ Extended 2x (Trump) and 6x (Biden) ▪ Interest accrues Sept 2023 | payments start Oct 2023 | but “on ramp” Impact on PA borrowers (Dec 2022, federal loans) ▪ 1.86 million borrowers | $67 billion total debt ▪ Average balance: $35,400 | Median balance: $20,100 ▪ Average repayment? $300

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FOP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: May 21 25), $3 million (FY 2025-26) and $4 million (FY 2026-27). The four-year total is $11 million. • For Federal Funds, total costs are $2 million (FY 2023-24), $3 million (FY 2024-25), $4 million (FY 2025-26) and

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

budget surplus this year and next, then deficits  A FY 19-20 + FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  Massive federal stimulus temporarily fills underlying structural deficit  IFO estimates at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant  Significant monies

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CIVEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: October 26 The four-year total is $21 million. • There is no impact on the Motor License Fund, Other State Funds or Federal Funds over the four-year period. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration

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CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For 5 million (FY 2022-23). The four-year total is $13.1 million. February 26, 2020 Page 3  For Federal Funds, the total costs are nominal for FYs 2019-20 through 2021-22 and $0.1 million (FY 2022-23

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

The office does not intend to duplicate services provided by the standing committees, but it seeks to use available state, federal and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. 2 IFO Reports and Leisure-Hospitality 505 533 29 5.7% Other Service 254 259 5 1.9% Government 748 711 -37 -5.0% Federal 103 97 -6 -6.1% State 645 614 -31 -4.8% Total 5,818 5,769 -50 -0.9% United

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ALES_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows: February 16 The four-year total is $1.9 million. • There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds. The IFO bases this analysis on data files transmitted by the Office of Administration on January 29, 2024. The

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ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There is no impact on the General Fund, the Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four-year period.  For Other State Funds, the total costs are $0.1 million (FY 2019-

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

state level. Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative num- ber indicates increasing pessimism. Data are from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ) average price for one gallon of unleaded gasoline

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

average hourly wage (excluding benefits) for each newly-created job must be at least 150 percent of the Federal minimum wage (currently $7.25 per hour) which equals $10.88 per hour. The JCTC is one of 22 credits subject to 500, the credit offsets roughly 1.4 percent of the total cost. Alternatively, at 150 percent of the Federal minimum wage ($10.88 per hour) and 30 percent in benefit costs, or $29,400 per year, the credit offsets 3.4

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

for use tax, unless they also store the aircraft out of state. 4 See Advisory Circular 120-12A, Federal Aviation Administration, 4/24/86. 5 Ibid. Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 foreign commerce or (3) the sale of the aircraft is able to procure a time series of state employment or sales data for the aircraft industry from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or an industry representative. 8 Therefore, it was necessary to construct a dataset from figures that are publicly available

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Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf

home values | business profits far above historical levels Expenditures ▪ All FY 22-23 funding increases assumed permanent (e.g., education) ▪ Federal COVID relief/enhanced FMAP (6.2%) ends in FY 22-23 (assumed) ▪ UPDATE: 6.2% (through March) | 5.0% (June Order based on Nov 2022 job change. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. Federal Pandemic Stimulus Monies Largely End January 24, 2023 9 2020 2021 2022 Residents/Businesses $64.6 $58.1 $4.8

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf

adult (age 21 or older) per year applied to Pennsylvania’s adult population. Because recreational cannabis re- mains illegal under federal law, all cannabis sold in Pennsylvania must be grown in state (no imports). Several states near Pennsylvania recently enacted legislation Educator Tax Credit is for early childhood educators who earn less than $75,000 (single) or $150,000 (joint) in federal adjusted gross income. The credit amount ranges from $750 to $1,500, based on credential level. The credit is refundable

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

revenues? ▪ Data suggest much of it is capital gains income ▪ Stock market contraction implies it is temporary What will the Federal Reserve do? ▪ Forecast assumes Fed follows through on recent jawboning ▪ Fed funds rate up to 2.75-3.00 by Salaries growth rates based on withholding revenues. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Monies to Pennsylvania May 23, 2022 5 2020 2021 2022 Total Federal Pandemic Unemployment (FPUC) $16.2 $8.8 $0

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

data are preliminary. Other data largely final. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Authority, Zillow. Change in PA Payroll Employment (000s) May 20, 2019 6 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 Mining- Assistance 22.4 26.4 27.2 27.1 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 9.1 4.9 7.8 State-Federal Government 1.1 -0.2 -1.3 1.0 Local Government -2.3 0.5 1.0 -0.7 All

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RB_2024_05_Treasury.pdf

the recent General Fund windfall generated by Treasury collections. The table below displays the General Fund average daily balance, the Federal Funds Target Rate, Treasury collections and the effective interest rate (actual collections divided by the average daily balance) for fiscal more than doubled to $3.3 billion and then surged to $11.2 billion in FY 2021-22 due to federal COVID relief funds and extraordinarily strong revenue growth. Even with the much higher balance, Treasury collections were muted due to

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RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf

revenues support highway maintenance, capital projects and bridge construction and rehabilitation. 2 State transportation revenues are also used to leverage federal reimbursement for eligible highway and bridge projects. 3 Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation (see Table is approximately 11.5% of the retail pump price (at $5.00 per gallon). The remaining price components include the federal gasoline tax (18.4 cents per gallon (cpg)), cost of crude oil, refining, distribution, marketing and profits. 4 1 Includes

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RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdf

from the $23 million collected in FY 2021-22. The table below displays the General Fund average daily balance, the Federal Funds Target Rate, Treasury collections and the effective interest rate (actual collections divided by the average daily balance) for FY more than doubled to $3.3 billion and then surged to $11.2 billion in FY 2021-22 due to federal COVID relief funds and extraordinarily strong revenue growth. Even with the much higher balance, Treasury collections were muted due to

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

18. 7/14/2017 3 Post-Recession Budgets The 2008-2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets.  Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years.  Spending reductions / restraint for many program areas. Since the recession, budgets Larger share of income not subject to tax: Social Security, Pensions, IRAs.  Age 65+ reports 21% of income on federal tax returns, much of it nontaxable. Sales and Use Tax.  Elderly buy fewer durable goods that are taxable. Significant

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platt ppt.pdf

Information Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Accomodations & Food Service Other Services Utilities Farm Ag. Services Railroads Mining Military Arts, Entertainment, & Rec. Federal Civilian Govt Educational Services State and Local Govt Health care Dollar Changes in PA Wages 2008Q2-2009Q3 (in millions of 000 0 5,000 10,000 15,00020,000 Total Information Railroads Military Ag. Services Farm Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Federal Civilian Govt State and Local Govt Nondurable Manufacturing Utilities Finance & Insurance Retail Trade Construction Arts, Entertainment, & Rec. Other Services Accomodations

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

for 2017 Q1 and Q2 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Admin., Federal Housing Finance Agency. Change in Payroll Employment (000s) June 7, 2017 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mining 1.7 -3

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

18, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 $24.3 20 -64.7% -31.0% -28.3% Clothing and Accessory Stores -27 -21 -19 -65.1% -50.5% -48.0% Federal Government 2 3 9 2.5% 3.4% 8.9% Home Health Care 0 3 3 0.1% 3.7%

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

Expenses (QRE) ▪ $11m for small firms | $44m for others ▪ Credit has been oversubscribed since FY 2016-17 ▪ Partly due to federal R&D credit made permanent ▪ Proration factors: small 68% | large 38% Most states offer some type of R&D incentive 1,800m), TX ($660m), MA ($242m) ▪ PA offers a mid-tier dollar credit ($55m) | typical credit rates ▪ All states use federal definitions for QRE ▪ Nearly all use a form of an incremental base computation January 23, 2020 7 Research and Development

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

by 22 percent. The January trend in CNIT payments likely reflects income and deduction shifting by taxpayers in response to federal tax law changes. Personal income tax (PIT) quarterly payments were again exceptionally strong in January, exceeding estimate by $81 million. It is expected that tax filers are taking advantage of the final year of the uncapped federal deduction for state and local taxes (SALT), by overpaying for tax year 2017. This behavioral response to federal tax law

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

increasing at a faster rate. The median home sales price grew to $173,000 (2.8%) and data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency confirm these trends in Pennsylvania (3.7% sales price growth). Other data show the months’ supply of nation, Pennsylvania’s median sales price typically grows more slowly, resulting in a more affordable housing market. However, the recent Federal Reserve decision to increase interest rates may hinder affordability for some buyers and restrain prices, as prices typically grow more

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

shift to e-commerce and (2) it shifted consumption away from services and towards goods. Data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve show that e-commerce comprised 14.3% of total retail sales in 2020 Q3, up from 11.8% in but services are generally exempt. Consumer Debt Increases from Prior Year, Credit Card Balances Continue to Decline The New York Federal Reserve Bank released consumer debt data for 2020 Q3. Pennsylvania consumer debt declined 0.9% from the prior year to

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf

inflation: (1) overstimulation of demand, largely from the American Rescue Plan; (2) excessive money creation and delayed intervention by the Federal Reserve and (3) ongoing supply chain constraints: A recent weekly newsletter by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that federal stimulus may have contributed 3.0 percentage points to the inflation rate

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MER-2014-05.pdf

S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

18.7 Leisure-Hospitality 7.5 13.1 9.6 Local Gov’t -6.8 -0.9 -0.7 State-Federal Gov’t 0.3 0.9 0.1 All Other 1.5 9.3 4.4 Annual Job Gains 46 Wage growth for 2017 Q1 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

a contracting labor force  Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  Expenditures significant growth due to one-time measures Analysis finds a ~$2.0 billion structural deficit  November Statistics. Forecast by IFO. CY 2020 PA Cash Income Growth Very Strong January 21, 2021 10 Source: Various state and federal agency websites. See IFO Official Revenue Estimate Methodology (June 2020). Disconnect: Labor Market vs Other PA Indicators January 21, 2021

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Economic_Summit_Presentation_Sept_2023.pdf

6.5% 19.6% -2.5% 3 Corporate Net Income 18.0% -6.5% 28.2% 30.7% 15.4% Federal or National Data Federal Fiscal Year 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 1 10 Year Note (Sept Average) 1.7%

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Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdf

72% 136% 21% 59% All Households 50% 35% 28% 3% 28% Excludes equity accrued in non-corporate business ventures. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Average Dollar and Percent Change Per Household: 2019 Q3 to 2023 Q3 February 7, 2024 Page 2 Representative it is not possible to link borrowers who are taking on new debt with those that paid down debt using federal stimulus (e.g., economic impact payments, PPP loans, enhanced unemployment compensation) during the federal health emergency. Representative Gleim requested data

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

the fiscal year. Factors that likely affected economic growth and tax revenues in 2013, such as the expiration of the federal payroll tax cut and the federal budget sequester, should be fully absorbed at this point. However, recent wage growth and consumer spending does not appear to

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BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf

Question 1(b): If the funding level indicated in 1(a) was impacted by the reallocation of state and federal funds, what weight was represented prior to the reallocation? (Respondents used a drop-down menu of options that include: 1.00 student supports, best practices as well as level the play field for all of our students. The influx of Federal COVID relief dollars allowed us to bring in some of those supports, however, with those dollars not being reoccurring and coming

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of man- ufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2002_drop_report.pdf

with municipal codes, Act 205 and the Municipal Police Pension Law. In the absence of carefully crafted legislation, compliance with federal anti-discrimination rules and the Internal Revenue Code could be problematic as well. Under a DROP, the employee forgoes somewhat the ongoing ad hoc implementation of DROPs by Pennsylvania local governments, and the clear need to integrate DROPs with existing federal and state laws, such as the Internal Revenue Code, The Age Discrimination in Employment Act, the Pension Forfeiture Act, the

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Tax_Modernization_Mar_2024.pdf

notifications about new releases. Questions? March 1, 2024 Addendum: Self-Employment and S Corps/Partnerships Slide 9 Tax Modernization & Reform Federal AGI (see note) Self-Employ (Schedule C) S Corp/Partnership Income Range Amount Share Amount Share $0 $25k $1.25 43 100% Factor: Grow to 2023 21% 48% 2023 Income Amount $16.97 $33.20 Note: Data are from 2019 federal income tax filings by PA residents. Includes tax losses. Income range based on federal Adjusted Gross Income. Tax revenue is

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Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf

of coal refuse in the generation of electricity and the reclamation of abandoned mine lands. ▪ Other states primarily rely on federal Abandoned Mine Land grants to fund environmental cleanup projects on lands affected by legacy coal mining. Benefits ▪ As of December data necessary to evaluate the program are not available. ▪ Qualifying income limitations for scholarship recipients are roughly 500% of the federal poverty level (FPL) for a family of four. This level is higher than all other states that have an income

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

dollars. Minimum Wage | Page 7 Raising the Minimum Wage The administration proposes to raise the state minimum wage from the federal minimum of $7.25 to $12.00 per hour on July 1, 2022 and increase the wage by 50 cents of January 1, 2022, Pennsylvania and 19 other states do not require employers to pay a wage that exceeds the federal minimum of $7.25 per hour. (See Table 2.1.) By contrast, 14 states and the District of Columbia require

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than- expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior to rate

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Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf

significant resources to ensuring compliance with PIT laws, including the matching of September 30, 2019 Page 2 state returns with federal tax data. Since local collectors lack these resources, imposing the tax at the local level would likely produce reduced collections Assuming that under the proposal, contributions to retirement accounts would now be exempt and distributions would be taxable (consistent with federal tax law), Pennsylvania would immediately lose the PIT paid on new employee contributions (tax is now delayed until retirement). These

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RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf

Three separate excise taxes could be levied on cigarette sales in Pennsylvania: a federal tax ($1.01 per pack), a state tax ($2.60 per pack) and a local tax for sales that occur trends hold for the full fiscal year. (Note: statewide growth rates exclude Philadelphia sales.) The statewide trend generally coincides with federal cigarette tax revenues (regular domestic purchases, sales for entire U.S.). Federal revenues declined at an average rate of 4

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RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf

1.86 million Pennsylvania residents had outstanding student loans of nearly $65 billion, with an average balance of $35,500 (federal loans only). For most borrowers, the average monthly repayment could range from $250 to $400 per month ($3,000 to scheduled to expire on May 1, 2022. The administration could extend the moratorium prior to expiration, but extension entails significant federal costs. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the moratorium costs the federal government $4.3 billion each month, or $52

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

market  Solid income growth  Stable interest rates  Low/stable energy prices Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal policy uncertainty  Federal tax cut / refunds  Consumer sentiment  Stock market volatility Gaming Expansion Estimates March 1, 2019 14 17-18 18-

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.04.2018 3 Two Estimates of the Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 -$168.5 Corporate Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.04.2018 5 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mining -3.8

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf

2 Total 183.3 226.0 617.2 1,026.4 25.9 88.4 Note: Amounts in $ millions. The Federal GF column contains the appropriated amounts from federal COVID-19 relief funds that are temporarily being used to replace state GF GGO expenses. PSP Metric Highlights PSP covered

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Sources $2,126 7.7% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $530 1.9% State (exclude Act 1) $9,492 34.4% Federal $815 3.0% Other (debt related) $855 3.1% Total $27,578 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 19.May.2017 Annual Growth Rate of Tax Revenues Income Property Sales Great Recession Federal Rate Increase 11 19.May.2017 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

9, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 $24.3 22 -64.7% -31.0% -30.8% Clothing and Accessory Stores -27 -21 -19 -65.1% -50.5% -47.3% Federal Government 2 3 4 2.5% 3.4% 8.9% Home Health Care 0 3 3 0.1% 3.7%

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NFIB_Feb_2024.pdf

year-over-year. Change Payroll Jobs for 2023 assumes a -30k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Payroll Jobs excludes self-employed. PA Labor Market: Pre vs Post-Covid Slide 2 Feb 2024 seasonally adjusted, except Unemployment Rate. Payroll Jobs assumes a -30k revision to preliminary data based on research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. All Jobs includes self-employed. Payroll Jobs Revert to Pre-Covid Levels Expansion (000s) • Social Assistance

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

That pace reflects the strongest 3-month gain since April 2012. A strong labor market and higher discretionary income from federal tax cuts are likely two relevant factors that contribute to that outcome. PA Consumer Debt Increases 0.6% in 2018 Q2 On August 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for 2018 Q2. For Pennsylvania, the data show a modest increase

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

partially offset by weaker than expected CNIT (-$42 million, -3.3%) and escheats (-$29 million, -133.2%) remittances. Recently enacted federal tax legislation had a material impact on December revenues. For CNIT, it is likely that estimated payments reflect a shifting of income out of tax year 2017 into tax year 2018 due to the significant federal rate reduction. Firms may have also accelerated deductions in the opposite direction to reduce 2017 tax liability. The IFO projects

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

Various national and state data suggest that taxpayers shifted income out of calendar year 2016 in anticipation of a significant federal income tax rate cut. The IFO’s official estimate assumed that most of that income would be reported in 2017, and would have a positive impact on FY 2017-18 revenues. Currently, it is unclear if federal income tax cuts will be enacted. If they are not or uncertainty remains, then General Fund revenue projections for this

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

spending trends and could motivate that result. First, PA consumers could be paying down debt. However, recent data from the Federal Reserve Board of New York show that PA per capita consumer debt levels increased (1.3%) during the past nine stagnant. However, the S&P 500 Index has increased by 14.8% since July 2016. Data from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency show that median PA home values increased by 4.0% in 2017 Q1 on a year-over-

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

Analysis. SA4 Personal Income and Employment by Major Component. 2 Daly, Mary et al. “What’s Up with Wage Growth?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Rich, Robert et al. “U.S. Real Wage Growth: Slowing Down With Age.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 1.8% 5.3% -2.2% 3.9% 1.8% 4.0% 2.6% -4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

second quarter compared to the prior year. Transfer receipts increased by 83.8% driven by an increase in state and federal unemployment compensation. Wages and salaries declined in the second quarter for Pennsylvania and the United States -5.7% and -4 recorded stronger job losses compared to the prior month, while all other sectors recorded modest gains. A notable exception is federal government employment, which increased year-over-year (8.9%) due to the temporary hiring of Census workers. However, federal government

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf

Credit Cards Drive 3.0% Rise in Pennsylvania Consumer Debt On November 7th, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Report on Household Debt and Credit for 2023 Q3. The report includes per housing market coupled with surging home prices (mortgages) and (2) the suspension of interest accrual during the COVID-19 pandemic federal moratorium (student loans). These data suggest that while Pennsylvania consumer credit card and auto loan debt continue to expand, larger

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Home Values Grew 10.9% in 2020 Q4 The Federal Housing Finance Agency recently released 2020 Q4 home price index data. Pennsylvania home values grew 10.9% in 2020 Q4 existing homeowners who might benefit from refinancing. Housing Market Highlights Divergence Between Consumer Prices and Asset Prices Since 2012, the Federal Reserve has targeted a 2.0% inflation rate in order to achieve its goal of price stability. This metric, as

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

implement stay-at-home measures to help contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Consumers Spent Roughly Half of Federal Economic Impact Payments The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released a working paper that measured the effects of COVID-19 Economic Impact Payments on consumer

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Social 14.4 11.7 15.9 15.3 Leisure-Hospitality 5.3 9.5 12.3 7.4 State-Federal Govt -2.0 1.4 0.8 -1.2 Local Govt -7.5 -7.5 -3.4 -1.6 All 4.6% -2.2% Note: Represents Economic Profits, which includes the Capital Consumption Adjustment for depreciation. Excludes foreign profits and Federal Reserve Profits. Includes both C and S corporations. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2016 Q4 forecast from IHS

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MER-2015-06.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac- turing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2015-04.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2015-02.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2015-01.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac- turing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2014-12.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-11.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-10.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-08.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-06.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-04.pdf

S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-01.pdf

of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes‐ simism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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jackson ppt.pdf

Investment -4.3 -1.7 7.7 16.9 Business Fixed Investment 4.4 8.7 5.3 5.8 Federal Government 4.5 -1.8 -2.5 -3.5 State & Local Government -1.8 -2.2 -2.4 -0.9 8 Core CPI 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 Refiners’ Acquisition Oil Price ($/barrel) 77 101 98 106 Federal Funds Rate (%) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 10-Year Treasury Yield (%) 3.2 2.8 2.3

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

13% CPI-U +8.4% Year-Over-Year Growth Philadelphia CPI-U 2 General Fund Revenues A massive infusion of federal funds, inflation and changes in consumer purchase patterns caused a surge in General Fund tax revenues in FY 2021-22 gains cannot be maintained in FY 2022-23 and will begin to revert to historical levels and trends as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and reduces the money supply. Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr All Private Workers -1.8% -0

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

What happens if PA economy has “normal” growth?  Assumes no recession over next five years. No New State or Federal Policy Changes.  But, the Governor must bring budget into balance.  What about the federal government? Taxes? ACA? “Discretionary” Spending Grows With Inflation.  Need not happen. It is an assumption.  Policymakers control

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Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf

margin and (2) credit card balances most reflect consumers’ ability to cover current expenses. In November 2022, the New York Federal Reserve released an analysis that examined average credit card balances by income and age group through the third quarter of 663 3,840 4,358 -17.7 13.5 Average Balance U.S. Average Credit Card Balance by Income Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Note: Quartile 1 represents the lowest income group. 2019Q4 to 2021Q2 to Age Group 2019Q4

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2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdf

1.7% -1.4% 0.7% -- US Credit Cards 11.4% 10.7% 8.8% 7.6% 7.2% Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board. PA Mortgage includes home equity loans. 2024.2 data are estimates. FY 2023-24 Revenues Through April Slide

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2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

year. Labor market data are seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Pandemic Stimulus Monies Largely End January 31, 2023 5 2020 2021 2022 Residents/Businesses $64.8 $57.3 $8.0 State and Federal UC 31.5 16.9 0.1 Economic Impact Payments 11.2 21.7 0.8 Paycheck Protection Program 20

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Federal Stimulus - Quarterly Pattern January 31, 2022 3 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021 advance CTC ends Jan 2022. Roughly one half of advance will result in higher tax liability. Expanded UC subject to federal but not state income tax. All EIPs are non-taxable. Note: Billions of dollars. PPP includes both pass-through entities

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of man- ufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

not exceed $3,000. In addition, the length of service awards are not considered compensation for the purposes of the Federal Insurance Contribution Act (FICA). Background Discussion (Cont'd) -7- SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY House Resolution Number 452 directed the Commission to the plan. Survey Findings (Cont'd) 6 Recruitment and Retention in the Volunteer Fire Service: Problems and Solutions, Final Report, Federal Emergency Management Agency, December 1998. -13- FINDINGS Table I displays selected survey findings and illustrates the main provisions and related

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

leaves of absence without pay; intervening and nonintervening military service; service in public education in another state or with the federal government; service in public education in a community college under the Community College Act; service with a -7- county school of absence without pay, intervening or nonintervening military service, service as a public educator in another state or with the federal government, service as a temporary federal employee assigned to a Commonwealth agency, service in a community college under the Community

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

Health Reform (so far) 7 Big Decision #1: Medicaid expansion 8 Medicaid Primer – Pre-ACA • Administered by states within broad federal rules • Financed jointly by states & federal government – FMAP varies by State • PA = 55% in 2012 9 • Financial & Categorical eligibility rules apply – In PA • Children up to

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

the state than would otherwise occur.  To increase industry employment as measured by data published by the federal government. 3 The program has been subsequently amended several times, most recently by Act 43 of 2017. 4 The 60 percent requirement To maintain or increase Pennsylvania’s market share of the industry as measured by data published by the federal government. Administration and Implementation The Department of Community and Economic Development administers the FPTC and reviews applications. 6 The text that follows

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Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

Regional Competitors (2019) Carrybacks Carryforwards State Years Cap Years Cap Pennsylvania 0 $0 20 40% of liability Delaware Conforms to federal treatment Maryland Conforms to federal treatment New Jersey 0 $0 20 Unlimited New York 3 Unlimited 20 Unlimited Ohio Not applicable (no corporate income tax

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

unemployment compensation). States levy CIT on the net income of C corporations. Most states use formulas to apportion federal net income to the state level. For this analysis, the CIT measure also includes revenues from corporate license fees. For Pennsylvania, net category has declined due to the elimination of the state estate tax that results from changes at the federal level. Table 7 displays state and local collections for Pennsylvania by tax source. The amounts are net of any refunds paid. As

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

a transparent platform that projects the impact on the budget and economy while writing legislation. 2) Regular convening with members, federal agencies and support committees Where is the United States Headed? More Debt Penn Wharton Budget Model 3 Debt has a 2030 2035 2040 Percent Change Year Low r High r Penn Wharton Budget Model 20 Percent Change from Current Law Federal Tax Revenues -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Percent

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

the labor force participation rate for both men and women has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. 2 However, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that prime working-age women (age 25 to 55) with children had a larger decline personal income tax payments). Neither the IFO estimate nor the estimate published in the Executive Budget include the most recent federal stimulus (American Rescue Plan). During the hearing, several members also raised questions regarding the revenue proposals contained in the Executive

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Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf

Senator Vulakovich inquired about the treatment of corporate net operating losses (NOLs) in other states as compared to Pennsylvania. Current federal law allows 20 years of NOL carryforwards and 2 years of NOL carrybacks. Thirty states (including Pennsylvania) and the District of Columbia conform to the federal standard of offering 20 years of NOL carryforwards. Twelve states conform to the federal standard of offering 2 years of

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf

that operate in states that have legalized marijuana face banking challenges because marijuana remains a Schedule I substance under the federal Controlled Substances Act. As a result, many financial institutions are hesitant to work with firms in the cannabis industry, leading For more detail regarding the methodology used and a literature review, see prior years’ Analysis of Revenue Proposals. 12 The federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour was last increased in 2009. Due to inflation, the real value of the

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RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdf

or the average benefit paid. • In October 2022, the Commonwealth elected to increase SNAP income eligibility from 165% of the federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG) to 200%. At the time, the Department of Human Services (DHS) estimated that 420,000 residents the 165% monthly FPIG limit is $2,005 for 1 person and the 200% FPIG limit is $2,430. • For federal fiscal year 2022, the USDA updated the definition of the Thrifty Food Plan to increase benefits. This change motivated a

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RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf

brief is the second in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and related mitigation include increases in the Child Care Development Block Grant (CCDBG) or other funds that were provided in ARPA or previous federal stimulus legislation. 1 ) Awarded funds can be used for pandemic-related costs, operations, staff salaries and recruitment and child care

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

See Brown et al. “Capturing Rents from Natural Resource Abundance: Private Royalties from U.S. Onshore Oil and Gas Production,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 15-04 (July 2016). 2 Top eight producing counties for 2017. 3 It should analysis assumed no growth in those income sources due to income shifted out of tax year 2017 due to the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Data for other counties support that assumption.  Compute the differential between the actual and

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

7,919 8,154 8,062 8,161 8,375 8,654 8,865 3.9% 2.5% 1.7% Federal Government 4,516 4,568 4,498 4,560 4,582 4,602 4,693 5,030 5,088 5 30.96 32.07 32.26 32.59 33.09 34.07 35.11 3.0% 2.8% 1.8% Federal Government 35.91 36.86 37.70 39.12 39.99 40.55 41.88 44.04 46.62 48

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 10.Feb.2017 2 The widespread 2008-2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets.  Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years.  Spending reductions/restraint for many program areas.  Recession hit pension 21 21-22 Pensions Share of GF Expenditures 10.Feb.2017 10 Levels Off Non-discretionary expenditures are mandated by federal law, constitutionally required or not easily changed.  Includes the cost-to-carry (mandatory spending) and additional expenditures over which

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Revenues and Expenditures 8.Jun.2016 3  The widespread 2008‐2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets. • Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years. • Spending reductions/restraint for many program areas. • Recession hit pension funds, contributing less important over time. Larger share of income not subject to tax. • Age 65+ reports nearly 20% of income on federal tax returns. Non‐taxable income: Social Security, Pensions, IRAs. Revenue Impacts 8.Jun.2016 19 Allocation of Spending by Age

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Rates 12.May.2016 +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income. • Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. • Wage income less important. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security. • Social Security income meant to be “supplemental year 2013. Includes non‐taxable social security, interest and pension income. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Share of Total Income on Federal Tax Return By Income Type and Age Cohort 17 12.May.2016 Large Job Shift to Service Sector Since Recession

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.05.2018 2 Two Estimates of the Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 -$168.5 Corporate Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.05.2018 4 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mining -3.8

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PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf

Data seasonally adjusted. Pandemic programs include PUA, FPUC, PPP, EIPs and refundable CTC. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Federal Pandemic Programs 2019 63.2 2022 61.7 2021 61.3 2020 62.1 2023 61.9 April 2020 Total 1.9 Note: Unemployment Comp includes $5.2 billion (2020) and $0.8 billion (2021) of state monies. Excludes direct federal monies to state ($26.3 billion) and local ($10.9 billion) governmental units and other entities ($9.8 billion). Excludes

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

data are preliminary. Other data largely final. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Authority, Zillow. Change in PA Payroll Employment (000s) June 11, 2019 6 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 Mining- Assistance 22.4 26.4 27.2 27.1 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 9.1 4.9 7.8 State-Federal Government 1.1 -0.2 -1.3 1.0 Local Government -2.3 0.5 1.0 -0.7 All

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perez ppt.pdf

remain below pre-recession levels – Officials are concerned about the strength of economic growth – Questions remain about the impact of federal deficit reduction on state budgets – The total state budget gap: $527.7 billion (FY 2008- FY 2013 est.) FY 2012 A number of significant uncertainties loom: – Demands on state budgets – The strength and sustainability of economic recovery – The impact of federal actions on state budgets For More Information www.ncsl.org/fiscal arturo.perez@ncsl.org Top Fiscal Issues for 2012

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. May 24, 2017 16 Change in Real Per Capita Debt: 2003 to 2015 III. Revenue Creates a long-term imbalance.  Sources of funding insufficient to meet needs.  Does not consider any changes at federal level. May 24, 2017 17 FY 16-17 Revenue Growth FY 2016-17 (millions) Dollar Share Growth Total General Fund

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf

the pandemic, many children on CHIP became eligible for Medicaid | Many children will likely transition back to CHIP when the federal Public Health Emergency ends Federal COVID-19 relief funds for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program totaled $564 million in FY 20-21 and $441 million

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf

state funding for 3 new state parks in FY 22-23 ▪ PID – 1332 waiver program to reduce consumer healthcare costs ▪ Federal American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act funding for initiatives in DDAP and DCNR PBB reports reflect the significant impact of COVID- 22-23 Budget General Fund (State) $49.9 $40.7 $49.8 $47.7 $46.3 $47.9 General Fund (Federal) 71.5 72.0 104.3 109.4 116.5 309.1 General Fund (Restricted) -- -- -- -- -- 22.7 Compulsive & Problem Gambling

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

 DEP: air pollution | DOH: diabetes rate | DCED: unemployment rate  Mainly scale issues | resources too small to move needle Federal published data often differ from state compilations  DOH: Opioid death rate (state much higher due to better data)  2019-20 data are different than other years  Does not include “potential” supplementals ($779 million)  Reflects all requested federal funds authority (only some used) Process much smoother than last year  Longer lead time | agencies see last year’s

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PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf

Groceries are 7.6% of CPI-U. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and AAA (PA average gasoline price). Federal Pandemic Stimulus ($ billions to PA) March 13, 2023 3 2020 2021 2022 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 Unemployment Comp 9 $1.9 ?? Note: Unemployment Comp includes $5.2 (2020) and $0.8 (2021) billion of state monies. Excludes direct federal monies to state and local government units and higher education institutions. Childcare includes stabilization funds ($820m) and block grants ($865m

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

Pennsylvania Fiscal Update National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) December 13, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Who we are. ◦ Established September 2011; 10 staff, but expanding and long-term budget outlook. ◦ New revenue package: borrowing, transfers and gaming. ◦ FYTD Revenues: hitting estimate through November. Looking forward: federal tax reform, property tax reform and General Fund challenges. Dec.13.2017 5 PA Demographics: Large Retirement Wave Age Cohort

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

care workers with a Bachelor’s degree or less were relatively small when compared to workers with advanced degrees. New Federal Tax Data Reflect Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act The IRS released tax filing statistics for 2018 federal returns filed through July 2019. The total number of returns filed for this period remained relatively stable compared to the

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

Posts $779 Billion Deficit for FFY 2018 On October 15, the U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement showed an official federal deficit for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2018 of $779 billion. The deficit is $113 billion (17.0%) higher than FFY 2017. Total tax

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

recent decline in the size of the labor force and the retirement of baby boomers. The article also discusses the Federal Reserve’s plan of action moving forward based on the report. IRS Releases Preliminary U.S. Income Tax Data for states, income tax revenues came in far below projections for FY 2016-17, leading to large budget defi- cits. New federal income tax data provide insights regarding those unexpected shortfalls. Compared to the prior year, the federal tax data show broad

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

of payments into December and January (quarterly payments for tax year 2017) as taxpayers attempted to maximize the benefits of federal tax law changes. For the fiscal year-to-date, PIT collections are $117 million above estimate. An overage in quarterly measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

through June, due to the acceleration of payments into December and January as taxpayers attempted to maximize the benefits of federal tax law changes. Non-tax revenues were below estimate by $53 million in March. Most of the shortfall was attributed measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

to be weak in March through June due to the acceleration of payments into December and January in response to federal tax law changes. Non-motor sales and use tax (SUT) collections were strong in February after a flat January. Non- measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

g., manufacturing and mining) tend to pay a higher annual wage than many expanding sectors, such as healthcare services. 1 Federal data show that lower-wage workers have realized stronger weekly wage gains than higher-wage workers. 2 Some of those measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

055 $339 Growth 0.7% 0.7% -0.3% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA CONSUMER DEBT OUTPACES REGION The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) publishes quarterly state data on consumer debt. The data span major loan types, such measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

an important economic indicator, has remained relatively low over the past three years, and that outcome has implications for large federal transfers made to Pennsylvania residents. For 2016, the Social Security Administration recently announced that recipients will not receive an annual measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania, more than five million federal tax returns were matched between the two years. The database of matched returns allows the IRS to identify a migrating measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

Pennsylvania March 31, 2022 1 Overview A sizable budget surplus this year ▪ Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Approximately $6 billion in federal relief supports current year budget ▪ Proposed for FY 22-23: Minimum wage increase | corporate tax changes Main economic issues ▪ What Dollars in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for a $2.19 billion one-time transfer. Federal and State Pandemic Relief Programs March 31, 2022 5 CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 Total Payments to Individuals and

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MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf

and Dependent Care Enhancement Program (Act 34) The act expands the refundable PIT credit for eligible taxpayers who receive the federal child and depend- ent care tax credit. The credit is now equal to (1) 100% (formerly 30%) of the expenses incurred and claimed for purposes of the federal credit or (2) $3,000 for one qualifying individual or $6,000 for two or more qualifying individuals, whichever is

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

is imputed rent to current homeowners) and actual conditions in the housing market. For example, the latest data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency show that the home price index increased by 12.5% in 2021 Q1 for the Mid- Atlantic to Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the state economy received a significant boost from the latest round of federal stimulus. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has not released state-level data on personal income, but adjusted

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf

was +1.0%. Since then, $21.0 billion of Economic Impact Payments were injected into the state economy by the federal Consolidated Appropriations Act and American Rescue Plan. A second round of PPP loans injected another $10.0 billion, expanded unemployment compensation $16.1 billion and advance child tax credits $3.4 billion. While much of those funds have been spent, Federal Reserve data on checking account balances through 2021 Q3 (latest data) show that substantial additional savings remain. Analysts expect that

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

Over 70% of Economic Impact Payments Saved or Used to Pay Down Debt The New York Federal Reserve released findings from two pandemic-related surveys. Survey recipients were asked to classify how they spent the first round the prior year, despite the higher legal age to consume tobacco (raised from 18 to 21 in 2019) and new federal restrictions on e-cigarette flavors. Possible reasons for stronger than expected cigarette and tobacco sales include: increased stress, unregulated breaks

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

a large revenue source for airlines. PA Renters Will Owe an Estimated $224 Million in Rent by December 31 The federal eviction moratorium for renters expires on December 31, 2020. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve estimates that by the end of December 1.3 million (4.2%) renter households in the U.S. will

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

Hence, housing and rental price pressures may be delayed. PA Auto Loan Debt Increased Nearly 13% in 2021 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released consumer debt data for 2021 Q2. Pennsylvania auto loan debt grew 12.7% loans, as national auto loan delinquencies remain relatively low. However, delinquencies may rise in the fall with the expiration of federal stimulus programs. Summer Natural Gas Prices at Highest Level Since 2014 As noted in a recent WSJ article, natural gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

Federal Stimulus Drives Record Pennsylvania Lottery Sales Through the week ending March 30, fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) lottery game sales the same period in FY 2019-20. Much of the growth in lottery game sales is likely explained by the federal stimulus distributed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased households’ disposable income. The IFO estimates that $50.7

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MER-2013-11.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf

published a revision. The revised report incorporates (1) a modest reduction in the projected cost savings, (2) an increase in federal funds derived from the gross receipts tax mechanism and (3) the reformatting of tables to provide separate totals with and without additional federal funds associated with the gross receipts tax. The final change reflects the uncertainty regarding those additional federal funds. Please refer

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Labor_Market_Update_Sept_2021.pdf

No Job Gains in August as Federal UC Benefits Neared Expiration This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the a total of roughly $1.7 billion. On average, UC claimants received $545 (PUA) to $675 (traditional) per week. The federal programs expired in the first week of September. As expected, the PUA claims remained strong up to the final week

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Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf

fall. For 2021 Q1, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an received. Based on the latest data for May 2021, Pennsylvania payroll job creation continues to stagnate, despite the transfer of federal funds. The year-over-year change in payroll jobs is similar for the latest three months of data at roughly

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

Impact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market fall. For 2021 Q1, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an

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Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf

for a total of $1.58 billion. On average, UC claimants received $515 (PUA) to $650 (traditional) per week. The federal programs expire in 7 weeks and the average PUA recipient may still claim up to $3,600 through the end 70 (traditional) or $19.60 (PUA) per hour if the tax-free status of UC benefits is included (excludes any federal income tax). If employed 15 hours per week, then the equivalent wage rate doubles. The IFO projects that many traditional

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IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf

The Department of Revenue devotes significant resources to ensure compliance with PIT laws, including the matching of state returns with federal tax data. Since local collectors lack these resources, imposing the tax at the local level would likely reduce collections. The be exempt. Under the proposal, contributions to retirement accounts would now be exempt and distributions would be taxable (consistent with federal tax law), Pennsylvania would immediately lose the PIT paid on new employee contributions (tax is now delayed until retirement). These

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

2018, December 2018) Special Funds Receipts and Disbursements (February 2018) Owner Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder (March 2018) Federal Tax Code Conformity Analysis (April 2018) Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction (April 2018) Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update PA - Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Markit, Federal Housing Finance Agency. Note: U.S. data for 2019 are forecasts from IHS Markit. PA data for 2019 are forecasts

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IFO ppt.pdf

billion • Since Recession start: Nat’l MA enrollment increased by 8.8 million; Pa MA enrollment increased 165k • Child enrollment • Federal policy changes January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Public Welfare Average Annual Growth Rates by 9,228 inmates by year end 2010 • Collectively, US state prisons saw the biggest decrease of ~11k inmates, while federal prisons saw a slight increase • During CY 2010, US prison releases exceeded prison admissions January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

IFO believes the corporate net income tax gains are due to (1) more profit shifting than originally estimated (due to federal tax law changes), (2) higher pre-tax profits than assumed and (3) an unexpected pull-forward of settlement payments for old tax years to benefit from the higher federal deduction of state taxes at the 35% rate (tax year 2017) versus the lower 21% rate (tax year 2018). If

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines two federal agencies.  Congressional Budget Office.  Annual budget projections.  Special studies on revenues or expenditures.  Joint Committee on Summer Slowdown?  European debt crisis continues to simmer.  Weak employment reports for May and June.  Uncertainty over federal tax and spending policy.  Consumer confidence declining. 10.Jul.2012 11 2012 GPNP Conference 6.0 7.0 8

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

and do not include self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NY Federal Reserve Board, Zillow and U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey. Recent Contraction of PA Payroll Jobs August 19, 2020 30 -22 -26.1 -22.5 -19.6 Couriers and Messengers 1 2 4 3.7% 6.7% 11.8% Federal Government 2 2 2 2.5 2.1 1.9 Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. June data are preliminary

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

3.1% 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 14.7% n.a. Note: Corporate profits exclude foreign profits and the Federal Reserve, but includes S corporations. The S&P 500 Index growth rate is based on quarterly or annual average levels on data through third quarter. Figures in parentheses represent share of total debt in 2016 Q3. Source: Consumer debt from Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Personal consumption expenditures from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (6) Inflation in both the

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

3.1% 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 14.7% n.a. Note: Corporate profits exclude foreign profits and the Federal Reserve, but includes S corporations. The S&P 500 Index growth rate is based on quarterly or annual average levels on data through third quarter. Figures in parentheses represent share of total debt in 2016 Q3. Source: Consumer debt from Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Personal consumption expenditures from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (6) Inflation in both the

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

for a stand-alone DC benefit plan. This plan would not include a DB component, and is similar to the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan or 401(k) plans. New school employees and most new state employees would contribute 7 Employees would have the op- tion to invest more of their annual salary into the DC plan, up to the federal maximum. Vesting Period New members of the Systems would become vested in the DB component of the two hybrid plans

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

6.5 Healthcare-Social Service 26.4 27.2 20.5 Leisure-Hospitality 9.1 4.9 6.1 State-Federal Gov’t -0.5 -1.0 2.9 Local Gov’t 0.7 0.7 0.2 All Other Sectors not seasonally adjusted. Median price seasonally adjusted. Source: Home sales and median home price from Zillow. House Price Index from Federal Housing Finance Agency. Debt data from New York Federal Reserve Board. Demographic Trends Cause Tight Labor Market January 28, 2020

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

go financing by retirement systems historically, and the practice is not acceptable for private sector pension plans regulated by the federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). The most appropriate funding method for a postretirement adjustment is actuarial funding. In general of living factors over an extended period of retirement. Because welfare postretirement adjustments either augment or replace other state and federal public assistance programs, their purpose has not generally been included among the commonly accepted goals of public employee retirement systems

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Pensions

24 (Public School Employees' Retirement Code) to bring the Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) into compliance with the following Federal laws: 1) the Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008 ("HEART Act"); 2) the Uniformed Services Employment and 798, Printer's Number 818). Signed into law on July 1, 2013, Act 33 further brought PSERS into compliance with Federal law by amending the Public School Code of 1949, to entitle members of the System who are granted leave for

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Links

Budget • Office of the Governor State Budget News • Pew Center for States • Rockefeller Institute of Government • Governing: States and Localities • Federation of Tax Administrators • National Conference of State Legislatures • National Association of State Budget Officers Federal Government • Board of Governors, Federal Reserve • Congressional Budget Office • Department of Treasury • Government Accountability Office • Internal Revenue Service • Joint Committee

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Testimony-02-2020.pdf

2019 are preliminary and will be revised. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve Board of New York. Forecasts by IFO. Author: Matthew Knittel Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2020-02-18 13:27:11

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TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf

established under the Third-Class City Port Authority Act or a nonprofit entity that (1) is exempt from taxation under federal law, (2) has been in existence for at least five years, (3) has a board of directors that meets at project expenditures; (3) expenditures attributable to tax credit contributions from business firms; (4) number of projects completed; (5) copies of Federal Form 990 or equivalents to indicate the tax status of the qualified organization and (6) copies of compilations, reviews or

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

contains the tax credit review for the Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on state and federal charitable contribution and neighborhood assistance incentives, held discussions with stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit to Pennsylvania’s NAP Tax Credit. State programs that were based on the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit or other federal programs were excluded. Table 3.1 displays key parameters for similar state tax credits. Most were enacted prior to 2000

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

require private employers to provide separate paid leave to employees who donate an organ or bone marrow. 13 Federal employees are entitled to seven days of paid leave for a bone marrow donation and thirty days of paid leave for a and other out- of-pocket costs for those who donate through their paired kidney exchange program. 15 The federally- funded National Living Donor Assistance Center provides income-based financial assistance for living kid- ney, liver, lung or intestine donors. However, this

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SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf

and pension contributions attributable only to the General Fund. 3 It does not include revenue projections and pension contributions for federal and state special funds. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO's Economic and Budget approximately $2.6 billion (not shown). The system would increase employer contributions by $370 million (from all fund sources: General, federal and special) each year for 10 years to pay down these additional liabilities. This amount would be unaffected by invest-

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

net operating loss deduction will offset some of the gains from modestly higher corporate profits. In addition, the unwinding of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation will provide less revenue for FY14- 15 than it did for FY13-14. Sales and Use stronger growth in FY14-15 because these revenues were suppressed in FY13-14 due to a behavioral response related to federal tax law changes. Nontax revenues – The projection includes $50 million from the slot machine license fee for a new Category

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REU-2019-12.pdf

payments (-$53.2 million). Prior to the implementation of the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions under the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), taxpayers had an incentive to pay their last PIT quarterly payment for the current growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdf

state funds available for those critical infrastructure projects. These trends also impact the amount of matching funds available to leverage federal funding. Over the next five years, Pennsylvania is projected to receive $4 billion in federal matching funds for road and bridge construction. 1 Barrero, Bloom, and Davis (2021). Why Working from Home Will Stick. (http

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RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdf

2023). Most forecasters project that inflation will remain at current levels in the near-term, and then revert to the Federal Reserve target of 2.0% sometime in 2024. This research brief provides an update to an IFO analysis from October increments and outcomes under two inflation scenarios. The first scenario assumes inflation of 2.0% per annum, which reflects the Federal Reserve’s target rate. The second scenario uses higher inflation for 2021 (4.0%), 2022 (7.9%), 2023 (4.2%

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RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf

prior to an historic surge in corporate profits that coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions and extensive federal stimulus programs. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show that U.S. corporate non-financial domestic profits 13 billion (71.3%) of total tax liability. This high degree of concentration is a common feature of state and federal CNIT systems.  Taxable income (i.e., positive income) apportioned to Pennsylvania totaled $34.21 billion. Firms claimed $4.26

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RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf

show that the decline in real hourly earnings decelerated during the summer. These data do not reflect the expiration of federal unemployment compensation benefits, which ended the first week of September. That expiration could alleviate some pressures in the labor market increments and outcomes under two inflation scenarios. The first scenario assumes inflation of 2.0% per annum, which reflects the Federal Reserve’s original target rate. The second scenario uses higher inflation for 2021 (5.0%), 2022 (3.5%) and 2023

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

Counties with lower shares of net earnings are more likely to be older counties that receive relatively more income from federal programs such as Social Security and Medicaid. Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Per Capita Personal Income Growth Figures 2 and value was replaced with an interpolation using the 2015 and 2017 data points. The adjusted data point is consistent with federal and state income tax return data trends for the county. This adjustment is also reflected in the statewide growth rate

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

On March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was enacted as part of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. 1 The program made forgivable loans available to small businesses and other to provide for non-taxable treatment. 11 For Pennsylvania personal income tax, the tax base does not conform to the federal tax base, but forgiven loans would be treated as taxable income under current law. To qualify for loan forgiveness, the

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

Department of Labor. +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income o Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security o Social Security income meant to be “supplemental.” o What impact 1 Note: Includes non-taxable social security, interest and pension income. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Share of Total Income on Federal Tax Return By Income Type and Age Cohort Large Job Shift to Service Sector Since Recession o Healthcare, Professional and

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

age is age 20 to 64. Adult population is age 20 or older. Source: IFO computations based on state and federal tax data. August.08.2018 10 Components of PA Population Change 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2010 2010 to 2020 State GDP 3.2% 3.3% Sources: Dept. of Comm. and Economic Development, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Housing Finance Agency. August.08.2018 21 Earned Income Tax: Avg. Growth Rates Fiscal Year Ending 2006-11 2011-16

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf

and SY 20-21 were delayed ▪ Complete SY 20-21 data not available until Spring 2022 ▪ Nearly $8 billion in federal relief fund allocated to PA since March 2020 | American Rescue Plan ESSER funds require LEAs to measure and report outcomes to online courses (~78% in 2020) ▪ Act 24-2011 generally prohibits the collection of student-level data, unless mandated by federal or state law. March 9, 2022 5 Spending, Income Levels and Student Outcomes “The data suggest there is little to

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf

cancelled and SY 20-21 were delayed ▪ SY 20-21 data not available until Spring 2022 ▪ Nearly $8 billion in federal relief fund allocated to PA since March 2020 | American Rescue Plan ESSER funds require LEAs to measure and report outcomes to online courses (~78% in 2020) ▪ Act 24-2011 generally prohibits the collection of student-level data, unless mandated by federal or state law. January 26, 2022 5 Department of Agriculture (AGR) January 26, 2022 6 AGR Actual Spend and FTEs

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_11_2023.pdf

0 $5.2 $11.0 1.5 $7.5 34.2 Catastrophic Loss Ben. Cont. -- -- -- -- 8.2 -- 8.2 General (Federal) 5.0 -- -- -- -- -- 5.0 Total 151.5 3.0 5.2 11.0 300.1 7.5 478.3 Note projected to reduce rates by approximately $20/month for 400,000+ covered individuals ▪ 80% of funds are provided by the federal government PID does not track aggregated rate increases for all insurance types ▪ PID reviews and approves rate increase requests for

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

1 Expenditures by Fund General Fund $21.5 $21.6 $21.6 $21.7 $21.6 $21.9 Federal Funds 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Total 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.7 18 Expenditures by Fund General Fund $2.58 $2.61 $2.70 $2.74 $2.68 $2.98 Federal Funds 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.20 Total 2.75 2.61 2.70 2.74

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

2 Act 44 of 2007 requires the PTC to make annual payments of $900 million to PennDOT, subject to certain federal approvals and other conditions. However, the federal government disallowed tolling on I-80, and the mandated annual payment declined to $450 million pursuant to a provision of

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PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf

7 2019 63.2 2022 61.8 Roughly 2/3 of total labor force decline (-105k) due to demographic factors Federal Pandemic Stimulus Ends ($ billions to PA) March 16, 2023 7 2020 2021 2022 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 Unemployment 1.9 ?? Note: Unemployment Comp includes $5.2 (2020) and $0.8 (2021) billion of state monies. Excludes most direct federal monies to state and local government units and higher education institutions. Childcare includes stabilization funds ($820m) and block grants ($865m

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Existing Home Prices Increase by 5.0% in 2019 Q1 On May 28, the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) released the housing price index for 2019 Q1. For Pennsylvania, the first quarter non-seasonally adjusted home price growth was 5.1% year-over-year. Opioid Crisis Impacts PA Productivity and Healthcare On June 4, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a brief that examines the opioid crisis using data from the Third District, which includes

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

11.0%. Excluding energy, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased by 1.9% from the prior year. - April 2019- National News Federal Income Tax Refunds Remain Below Prior Year On a weekly basis, the IRS releases the latest data regarding federal income tax refunds processed and paid. Through April 12, total IRS refunds processed were down 1.9% compared to the

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

the average wage paid increased by 2.9%. PA Consumer Debt Increases Moderately in 2018 Q1 On May 17, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for the first quarter of 2018. On a year-over-year and insurers) are excluded, then the profits growth rate increases to 5.8%. (See Table 6.16D.) Due to the federal corporate income tax cut, after-tax profits re- tained by corporations increased by 35.8% in the first quarter on

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

2018 - National News Latest Estimate for 2018 Q2 U.S. Real GDP Growth is 4.5% On July 18, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its final forecast of GDPNow for 2018 Q2. The forecast projects the real growth rate by businesses. U.S. Capital Gains Surged in Tax Year 2017 On June 26, the IRS released preliminary data for federal income tax returns filed for tax year 2017. The data show that capital gains increased by 41.4% across all

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

flat if tax law changes excluded.  FY 2017-18: revenue forecast holding up so far.  But forecast assumes federal tax cut.  Uncertainty could impact collections (again).  Healthcare and Pensions drive spending growth.  SERS employer contribution rate growth rate Moving Forward  Will FY 2017-18 deficit carry forward to future?  Permanent vs. temporary revenues.  Federal tax cut should boost state revenues.  Current revenue sources have limited upside.  Sales tax will continue to lag

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax 3-month growth rate has trended downward since July 2018, when many analysts be- lieve the economic impact from the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act peaked. The 12-month growth rate re- mains strong, but should revert to historical levels

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

The transfer was included in the updated official estimate per Act 44, but was blocked as a result of a federal court ruling. Revenue collections for the year were $178 million (-0.5 percent) short of the IFO’s official revenue mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

part of that shortfall is likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the significant federal corporate rate reduction in December 2017. For the fiscal year, CNIT revenues are $167 million below estimate, driven by final mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The graphs

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MRU_2021_04.pdf

extension of the annual payment due date from April 15 to May 17 to coincide with the change in the federal due date for tax year 2020 returns. Withholding payments fell below estimate (-$13.2 million, -1.5%) for the month 8 million, 12.9%) and motor vehicle collections (+$37.1 million, 25.3%). SUT collections in April were bolstered by federal stimulus payments that began arriving in March as a result of the American Rescue Plan Act. FYTD SUT collections of

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MRU-2020-10.pdf

at a year- over-year rate through October of 5.7 percent. FYTD growth is likely driven by: (1) substantial federal transfer payments distributed in 2020 Q2 and Q3, (2) a significant increase in home refinancings that likely lowered household monthly home furnishings, electronics and other taxable household goods. SUT growth is expected to slow in the coming months, with less federal support flowing to households in 2020 Q4. October PIT collections were $1,024.5 million and $86.9 million (9

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

This provision is projected to reduce FY 2020-21 PIT withholding revenues by $12.3 million. Other Miscellaneous Federal Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Funds (Act 24) The act provides that federal money from the Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund in excess of the amount appropriated in 2021 shall be transferred to the General

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

documentation. Therefore, these provisions are not projected to reduce FY 2019-20 collections. Personal Income Tax Conformity with Federal Opportunity Zones (Act 13) The act provides that “net gains”, “net losses” and “dividends” for purposes of the Pennsylvania personal income tax PIT) shall not include gains, income or losses which are excluded from tax under the provisions of the Federal Opportunity Zones Program. The provisions apply to tax years beginning after December 31, 2019 and are effective June 28, 2019. Prior Law

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf

recent article notes that many housing analysts had expected a wave in the number of renter eviction filings after the federal eviction moratorium expired on August 26, 2021. However, in many metropolitan areas, eviction filings declined or remained unchanged from August growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf

market data to assess the performance of the spring housing market, which typically runs from March to July. As the Federal Reserve combats inflation, mortgage rates have increased dramatically, and analysts are evaluating whether high rates will have a material impact growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

slated to be released at the end of June. Philadelphia Fed Releases Weekly Business Outlook Survey on COVID-19 The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reports on a weekly survey of over 200 businesses in the Third District (Eastern PA-NJ- growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf

price was $6.14, a year-over-year (YOY) increase of nearly 80%. (Average prices include all applicable state and federal excise taxes.) Both averages represent the highest prices recorded, surpassing the previous records of $4.08 for regular gasoline (July growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

3%). Additional data from the Pulse Survey indicate that 24.3% of Pennsylvanians spent at least a portion of the federal stimulus payment on their mortgage, while 20.9% of recipients nationwide spent the stimulus payment on their mortgage. Over 20 growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf

December (59.8%, non-seasonally adjusted) was the lowest rate for that month since December 1984) and the impact of Federal Reserve actions to slow growth of the money supply and raise interest rates. Monthly Economic Update February 2022 Aug Sept growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf

market data to assess the performance of the spring housing market, which typically runs from March through July. As the Federal Reserve combats inflation, mortgage rates have increased dramatically, and analysts are evaluating whether higher rates will have a material impact growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf

5 In this example, that amount is treated as a "recaptured" gain under IRC Section 1245 and subject to ordinary federal income tax rates , as opposed to capital g ains tax rates. 6 This exam p le is from "Recent Trends David Joulfaian and Romeo Mookerje , Office of Tax Analysis, U.S. Department of Treasury ( 2014 ) . 7 For example , see the Federation of Exchange Accommodators at htt p s://www. I 03 l .or2/. 8 See supra note 6. 4 CreationDate: 2017-

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Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf

a total of roughly $1.7 billion. On average, UC claimants received $515 (PUA) to $650 (traditional) per week. The federal programs are scheduled to expire in two weeks. In last month’s update, the IFO speculated that many traditional UC York (-8.5%), Ohio (-4.4%) and the U.S. (-2.8%). Among the border states, only Ohio ended extra federal weekly bonus benefits early (end of June). Although Ohio is performing better than the peer states listed, it is unclear

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IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf

revenue impact exceeds that threshold. The results for the three bills are as follows: • HB 105 allows conformity to the federal income tax code for like-kind exchanges (Section 1031 of the Internal Revenue Code). The IFO estimates a negative revenue year effective) that declines to $20 to $25 million per annum after several years. • HB 333 allows conformity to the federal income tax code for Section 179 expensing for pass- through entities. For the current tax year, Section 179 allows full

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IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf

MLF is projected to contribute $500 million to the PSP's annual budget. This excludes roughly $9 million annually in federal funding for motor carrier safety that flows through the MLF to the PSP budget. 3 Beginning January 1, 2023, motor of gasoline or diesel, respectively. The analysis assumes both rates decline to the proposed 12.4 cents per gallon (excluding federal taxes and the 1.1 cent per gallon collected by the Pennsylvania Department of Insurance for deposit into the Underground

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

Jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency, PA Lottery, PA Department of Environmental Protection. Annual PA Employment Growth (000s) May 15, 2019 3 2016 Service 22.4 26.4 27.2 27.1 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 9.1 4.9 7.8 State-Federal Government 1.0 -0.2 -1.3 1.0 Local Government -2.2 0.5 1.0 -0.7 All

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

13.8 33.4 Notes: ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENTS 1 1 Bargaining Units included are the following: American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), Association of Liquor Enforcement Officers (ALES), Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA), Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP), Independent State Stores Union (ISSU), Office & Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU) Healthcare Pennsylvania

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf

0.2% -0.9% -1.0% -1.2% Interest Rates Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Federal Funds 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 5.3% 5.3% 30 Year Mortgage 2.8% 3.1% 6.9% 7.6% -- Effective Credit Card 16.4% 17.1% 18.4% 22.8% -- Note/Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Potential Under or Overstatement of Structural Deficit November 15, 2023 16 IFO Assumption Alternative Assumption

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EPLC_April_2024.pdf

only 2.9% was paid off in following Jan/Feb U.S. Credit Card Debt Over Time Source: U.S. Federal Reserve. Dec '18, $1,054 Dec '19, $1,092 Dec '22, $1,213 Dec '23, $1,319 $850 $900 $950 Index 17.6% 19.6% 24.5% 27.9% US Check-Savings Balance -3.4% -2.6% 0.0% -- Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York and FHFA. Education Policy & Leadership Center Slide 15 • Sales tax continues to surprise to upside

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Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf

41 gasoline June 23 $3.58 YOY Change Philly CPI-U deflation Note: Gasolineprice for Central Atlantic. Source: EIA. Two Federal Stimulus Tsunamis Subside…. Slide 5 Feb 2024 Economic Summit PA Sales Tax Growth US Check-Save Balances Note: US Data 3 2021.4 2022.1 Stimulus to PA Residents and Business ($ billions) SNAP, Rent Assist, Expand CTC, Student Loan Freeze Federal UC Econ Imp Payments PPP $44 $33 2019 5.1% 2020 0.5% 2021 16.2% 2022 7.0% 2023

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2024_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf

Date End Date IFO Analysis FY 23-24 FY 24-25 FY 25-26 FY 26-27 Total AFSCME American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees 7/1/2023 6/30/2027 8/29/2023 $168 $302 $414 $522 $1 Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association 7/1/2023 6/30/2027 10/26/2023 3 5 6 8 21 FOSCEP Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals 7/1/2023 6/30/2027 5/21/2024 3 5 6 8 22

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2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf

Date End Date IFO Analysis FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Total AFSCME American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 8/12/2019 $71.3 $159.4 $254 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 2/26/2020 1.1 2.3 4.3 5.5 13.3 FOSCEP Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 10/8/2019 1.1 2.3 3

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

collected by the board pursuant to this section. The moneys in thisfund shall be used to supplement the Federal orState funds appropriated/orthe improvementofadultprobation services. (g) For purposes of this section, the term “board” shall refer to and mean the PennsylvaniaBoard strikes over benefits than over wages. During the collective bargaining process in 1988, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), the largest union representing Commonwealth employees, reached the initial agreement with the Commonwealth that ultimately resulted in the

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Releases

Contracts This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP). Full Report FOP, Lodge #92 Wage Contract Analysis May 21, 2024 | Wage Contracts Full Report Affordable Connectivity Program Ends May 01, 2024 | Economics and Other Due to the depletion of approved funds, the federal Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) is no longer accepting new enrollments and the last fully-funded program month was April 2024

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WC-2019-UFCW.pdf

Benefits for the relevant fiscal year multiplied by the 3 percent general pay increase (GPI). Motor Other General License State Federal All Fund Fund Funds 1/ Funds Funds FY 2019-20 General Pay and Step Increase $0.0 $0.0 $2

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WC-2019-SEIU.pdf

Benefits for the relevant fiscal year multiplied by the 3 percent general pay increase (GPI). Motor Other General License State Federal All Fund Fund Funds 1/ Funds Funds FY 2019-20 General Pay and Step Increase $10.1 $0.0 $1

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WC-2019-AFSCME.pdf

Benefits for the relevant fiscal year multiplied by the 3 percent general pay increase (GPI). Motor Other General License State Federal All Fund Fund Funds 1/ Funds Funds FY 2019-20 General Pay and Step Increase $23.3 $20.7 $16

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Wage_Contracts_PLEA.pdf

Union Year Increase General Fund Motor License Fund Other State Funds 1/ Federal Funds Total PLEA 2016-17 General Pay or Step - - 0.2 - 0.2 Bargaining Healthcare Contribution - - - - - Unit 36 Total - - 0

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TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf

only. Table 3.1 State Comparison of Related Manufacturing Tax Credits Note: NG is natural gas and FAET is the federal firearms and ammunition excise tax. Renewables are chemicals obtained from renewable sources such as agricultural feedstock, agricultural waste, organic waste

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State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf

sales taxes that might also be levied on those products by state or local governments. 10 See “State Tax Rates,” Federation of Tax Administrators and “State Taxes,” Tax Foundation. 11 For personal income tax, New Hampshire only taxes dividends and interest

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

the purpose of computing real estate tax rates, the analysis excludes: Building-level administrative costs. The impact of changes in federal funds. Costs related to the York County School of Technology. Costs related to the Lincoln Intermediate Unit. 16.Dec.2014

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

the special funds section of the Governor's Executive Budget. Available Actual Difference (Actual less Available) 1 State General Fund Federal Funds Other State Funds Bond Funds Total Spend Alabama $8,295 $9,885 $8,005 $460 $26,645 Alaska 4

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

Individual Exemptions: Certain jurisdictions exempt low-income individuals from bag fees. Eligible indi- viduals include those participating in federal or state food assistance programs (including the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)). Vendors Impacted

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SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf

and pension contributions attributable only to the General Fund. 3 It does not include revenue projections and pension contributions for federal and state special funds. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO's Economic and Budget

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

COVID-19 pandemic, but this estimate assumes no decline in current-year collections. 2 This revision is due to additional federal stimulus provided to Pennsylvania residents after release of the previous forecast that offset the reduction in the property tax collection

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REU-2020-02.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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REU-2020-01.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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REU-2019-11.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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REU-2019-10.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdf

sector expanded by 12,900 (+1.9%) payroll jobs due to employment growth at local school districts (4,700) and federal (3,200) jobs. The accommodation-food service sector expanded by 15,000 (+3.4%) payroll jobs due to accommodation (4

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RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf

state labor market. 1 For a discussion of this issue based on QCEW data through 2023 Q2, see the Philadelphia Federal Reserve analysis: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions. Negative Revision to PA Job

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RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdf

Currently, the Pennsylvania statutory minimum wage is the same as the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour, and some state policymakers have expressed interest in raising the state minimum wage

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RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdf

cost analysis of the agreement. Most CBAs subject to IFO review expired June 30, 2023. Recently, members of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) ratified a new CBA effective July 1, 2023 through June 30, 2027. The

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RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf

across the state compared to 2020 because income growth significantly outpaced property tax growth in all counties due to large federal stimulus programs and an estimated 70% increase in capital gains income. If temporary COVID-19 stimulus funds are excluded, then

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RB_2023_05_Migration.pdf

six states for net outflows from Pennsylvania were southern states. The dataset also includes breakouts based on the age and federal adjusted gross income (AGI) of the primary filer. (On average, there were 1.68 individuals per tax return.) For Pennsylvania

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RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf

brief is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. As part of the omnibus appropriations bill passed December 2022, the

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RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf

furloughed due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded rapidly due to business re-openings and multiple large federal stimulus programs. 6 The overall population contraction was driven by three factors: (1) a net domestic outflow to other states

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

Personal Current Transfer Receipts (Table CAINC35), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 The BEA publishes the “Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income” by state, which included a total of $5.2 billion for PPP loans to

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RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdf

The COVID-19 pandemic, mitigation efforts and federal response produced two economic outcomes that directly impacted the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers. Inflation surged to a four-decade

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RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf

Personal Current Transfer Receipts (Table CAINC35), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 The BEA published the “Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income” by state for 2021, which included a total of $3.8 billion for PPP

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RB-2016-02.pdf

those in which local government serves an administrative role. The report excludes programs that are solely funded by local or federal governments. The report classi Ðies economic development incentives (may be called incentives or programs, for short) into three categories: (1

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

and o have cultural, historic, recreational or civic significance.  Grants must be eligible for tax-exempt bond funding under federal law.  Total cost of the project must be at least $1,000,000.  At least 50 percent of

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

tax chapter of the Tax Reform Code of 1971 is also such a crime as is a criminal offense under federal law substantially the same as one of these listed crimes. Restitution for Monetary Loss. In any case where a public

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

Sources $2,347 7.8% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $533 1.8% State (excludes Act 1) $10,962 36.2% Federal $897 3.0% Other (debt related) $439 1.4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

Sources $2,126 7.7% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $530 1.9% State (exclude Act 1) $9,492 34.4% Federal $815 3.0% Other (debt related) $855 3.1% Total $27,578 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source

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Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf

across the state compared to 2019 because income growth significantly outpaced property tax growth in all counties due to large federal stimulus programs and an estimated 20% increase in capital gains income. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

35.1% Other Local $2,224 7.2% Earned Income $1,563 5.1% Act 1 Allocations $532 1.7% Federal $843 2.7% Other (debt related) $1,759 5.7% Total $30,752 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

base erosion will constrain revenue growth. There are important downside risks associated with global economic weakness and the uncertainties of federal tax policy.  The number of working-aged residents between ages 20 and 64 will decline by one percent between

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

Service Sectors. • Healthy PA to add 600,000 new enrollees. • Some uncertainty over the ACA. Continued Contraction for Government Sector. • Federal government sheds Postal Service jobs. • Local gov’t contracts due to shrinking pupil base and pensions. Exception: Labor Force Participation

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

4,152 -4,435 -4,580 -4,624 Total Revenues 4,628 3,822 4,041 4,599 5,159 Federal Offsets $236 -$91 -$170 -$200 -$201 Non-Residents 567 931 980 1,230 1,453 PA Residents 3,826 2

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

Sources $2,185 7.7% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $531 1.9% State (excludes Act 1) $9,944 34.9% Federal $775 2.7% Other (debt related) $934 3.3% Total $28,494 100.0% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Source

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

14.5 Leisure‐Hospitality 5.3 9.5 14.7 Local Gov’t ‐7.5 ‐7.5 ‐4.0 State‐Federal Gov’t ‐2.0 1.4 1.0 All Other 4.1 4.6 8.7 Total 47.6 48

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

g., gaming expansion). Policymakers should consider recession scenarios.  Surveys: recession more likely than not next three years.  Will federal government be able/willing to assist states? November 19, 2018 14 Author: Lesley Rompalo Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2018-11-19

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

information is one of many factors that play a role in state budget decisions (e.g., revenue availability, court decisions, federal funding impacts, formula requirements, constituent pressures). 15 October 15, 2018 16 October 15, 2018 Presentation to be posted on the

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf

213 million for claim year 2020 (distributed in 2021) ▪ $351 million estimated for claim year 2021 (includes $140 million from federal ARPA dollars) January 10, 2023 5 CreationDate: 2023-01-10 02:03:03 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft 365 ModDate

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PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf

standardized test scores vary widely.” 8. For applicable performance metrics, indicate the goals or targets set forth in PDE’s federally approved Every Student Succeeds Act state plan. 9. In an appendix, provide the underlying data for the dot plots on

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Outlook for Regional Manufacturing Unclear The New York Federal Reserve released its March 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Responses gath- ered between March 2 and 10 reveal New York

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

firms that expand to new locations. State Leading Index Declines in Nine States Including Pennsylvania On December 31, 2019 the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its State Leading Indexes, a six-month forecast of its State Coincident Indexes for November

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

crease from 26% to 34% by 2038, while the homeownership rate is anticipated to decline. Americans Pay about 86% of Federal Taxes Owed On September 26, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released new estimates on taxpayer compliance. It report- ed an

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

Q1 will be released at the end of July. Consumer Debt Increases Modestly in 2019 Q1 On May 14, the Federal Reserve Board of New York released consumer debt data for 2019 Q1. The data show the total per capita debt

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

erage refund of $3,008 has increased (0.1%). For tax year 2016, PA filers received $14.1 billion of federal tax re- funds. Those refunds typically provide a boost to consumer spending and sales tax revenues in the spring. IFO

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

IFO will release an updated projection of 2019 collections in late January. Metro Unemployment Rates A recent brief by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia compares unemployment rates in metropolitan sta- tistical areas (MSAs) across the past three business cycles and

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Student Loan Debt Continues to Climb in 2018 Q3 On November 16, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylva- nia, the data show that per

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

CY 2018 (remitted April 2019) in late January 2019. Home Price Growth Slows in 2018 Q3 On November 27, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released purchase-only index data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylvania, seasonally adjusted data show that third

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

years and then level off thereafter. The CBO also revised its projection for real GDP to reflect recent changes in federal tax policy. (Full Report) Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this

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NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf

picture goals achieved strategically (e.g., housing, broadband, etc.) • Flexibility with investment strategies • Adjusting for influx of state revenues and federal stimulus • Planning beyond ARPA 17 NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES Emily Maher emily.maher@ncsl.org www.ncsl.org Please

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-06.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The three-

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-05.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-04.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The three-

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-03.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-02.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-01.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The graphs

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The graphs

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-11.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-10.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-09.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-08.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-07.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The graphs

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2016 - MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT SELECT GENERAL FUND TAX REVENUES - ANNUAL GROWTH RATES Sales

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MRU_2021_05.pdf

to the annual payment due date extension from April 15 to May 17 to coincide with the change in the federal due date for tax year (TY) 2020 returns. In addition, quarterly (+$76.8 million, 307.1%) and withholding (+$15.6

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

Other tobacco products revenues are largely performing as expected for the year, after adjusting for the impact of the new federal age restriction on purchases (effective December 2019). Liquor tax collections displayed some weakness (-$2.6 million) for the month, possibly

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

material portion of the gain is likely related to the taxable status of forgiven Paycheck Protection Program loans, and recent federal legislation makes those loans non-taxable. FYTD CNIT collections continue to outperform the forecast ($595.4 million, 38.6 percent

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

were likely bolstered by pent-up demand from COVID-19 business closures earlier this year and the continued effect of federal economic impact payments and enhanced unemployment compensation benefits. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for July were $2.31 billion, an

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

early days of the FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 4 pandemic. The special funds were later reimbursed from federal Coronavirus Relief Fund monies. The $50 million will now be transferred from those special funds to the General Fund for

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. CreationDate: 2020-12-16 04:13:43 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2020-12-16 04:14

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 12. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 12. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

Hits: 1

Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

Hits: 1

Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 12. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections

Hits: 1

Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. CreationDate: 2020-04-22 17:22:19 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2020-04-22 17:46

Hits: 1

MidYear_PublicBriefing_Jan2018.pdf

update for General Fund revenues for FY 2017-18. The presentation will also include a discussion of the impact of federal tax law changes on the state economy and tax revenues and a preliminary revenue outlook for FY 2018-19. Mid-

Hits: 1

Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf

be caused by rapid technological change or other economics shocks October 6, 2021 7 Where Did the Workers Go? (continued) Federal Unemployment Compensation payments expired in September ▪ Extended to 79 weeks | extra $300 per week | PUA program (~$515/wk) ▪ Not yet

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Labor_Market_Update_October_2021.pdf

claims that would be expected for the month) and non-traditional claims under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program. The federal programs expired in the first week of September. For the month, an average of 182,500 claims above normal were

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Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf

be spent in their home state. 4 Leakage refers to spending that flows out of the state economy such as federal taxes, savings, out-of-state travel and purchases of imports. 5 See: Ordinance 1 of 2019, Hotel Room Tax (Centre

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

to a decline in corporate profits and weak consumer spending. Income shifting from 2016 to 2017 in anticipation of lower federal tax rates may have contributed to the weak collections.” FY 2017-18 unrestricted General Fund revenues are projected to be

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

86 -36 -38 -32.8 -13.4 -14.5 All Government -17 -7 -32 -2.3 -1.0 -4.4 Federal 2 10 1 2.5 9.9 1.2 State 1 -3 -9 0.6 -2.0 -5.8 Local

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

were higher than normal because some taxpayers received dividends or realized capital gains in 2012 instead of 2013 to avoid federal tax increases. Depending on the performance of the Pennsylvania economy in the first six months of 2014, the revisions could

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

mortgages completed in PA. Since 2013, there have been 8,549 reverse mortgages completed. Source: "The Graying of American Debt," Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Fewer PA Seniors Own Home Outright Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 14 Share of

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

2020 Unemployment Rate $600/wk ends $300/wkends Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CTC starts Labor Force Contraction Federal programs Childcare Eldercare Home schooling COVID concerns Savings cushion Lifestyle change Early retirements Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed Who Stopped Working

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IFO_Job_Opportunity_Deputy_Director.pdf

performance measures • Exhibits exceptional written and oral communication skills • Has experience in managing personnel, policies and projects • Is knowledgeable about federal and state funding sources • Has experience reviewing and analyzing government budgets and tax policies Work Location: Rachel Carson State Office

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House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf

894 3,876 5.8 10.2 Note: Dollars in millions. Excludes any funds from non-General Fund sources, including federal COVID-19 relief funds. FYE 2020 General Fund revenues increased by approximately $2.0 billion due to revenue delays resulting

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

marijuana-related ED visits from 2015 to 2018 (16.7 per 1,000 ED visits). A 2020 brief by the federal-state Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project found that the national average cost per ED visit was $530 in 2017. Poison

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic and Budget Outlook, IFO (Nov. 2019), Zillow, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. CreationDate: 2019-12-02 19:52:52 Creator: Microsoft® Excel® 2016 ModDate: 2019-12-02

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

Sources $2,347 7.8% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $533 1.8% State (excludes Act 1) $10,962 36.2% Federal $897 3.0% Other (debt related) $439 1.4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2023.pdf

for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. Long term issues that impact the outlook include the expiration of federal relief programs, a rapidly expanding 75+ age cohort and the depletion of surplus balances that currently generate significant interest income

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf

fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Phillip Swagel, Director CBO Federal Budget and Economic Update Following his presentation, Director Swagel will address questions that have been submitted. (717) 230-8293 contact

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

County from 2000 to 2010 (4.5 percent per annum) is due to the construction of a large, federal prison that began operations in late 2004. Regional and National Population Trends | Page 14 Regional and National Population Trends | Page 15 Regional

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

39 (July 2017). The income reported to the ACS also excludes capital gains. For tax year 2017, Pennsylvania taxpayers reporting federal adjusted gross income that exceeded $250,000 reported roughly three- quarters of total capital gains for tax year 2017, and

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

chance of a shortfall of 1 standard deviation or larger in a single year, under plausible assumptions. - Invested assets from Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. - Taxes from Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.3. - Taxes and

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April_1_Revenue_Update.pdf

benefit from historically high General Fund balances and interest rates. Most analysts do not expect a rate cut by the Federal Reserve until June. Based on fiscal year-to-date revenues through March, the IFO would increase its official revenue estimate

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Announcement_2021.pdf

workers departed the state labor force? How long will inflation remain elevated? Does any pent-up demand remain from unspent federal stimulus? The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal

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About IFO

as well as leading performance-based budget reports. Other responsibilities include working on special projects pertaining to debt, retiree healthcare, federal stimulus and economic development incentives. Frank Lill Fiscal Analyst Mr. Lill joined the IFO in 2022 and his primary responsibilities

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