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Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

Tags: brief, economic, federal, impact, research, stimulus

Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. 

This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.

 

Tags: federal, income, taxes, tcja

Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

06/23/2021

Labor Market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

06/03/2021

Economic Impact of federal Stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

05/10/2021

Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

03/11/2021

Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion.  This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.  

10/13/2020

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Presentation Methodology

06/22/2020

Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19

The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy.

04/08/2020

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and official estimates for FY 2019-20 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Methodology

06/21/2019

Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update- August 2018

In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy.

08/24/2018

federal Tax Code Conformity Analysis

The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the General Fund revenue impact from conformity with certain federal tax code provisions.

04/27/2018

Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release

01/29/2018

TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Section 4: Economic Analysis and Issues............................................................................... 15 Technical Issues That Affect Economic Impact ................................................................................ 15 Two State Comparisons Using Federal Tax Credit Data .................................................................... 18 Modest Tax Credit Precludes Pennsylvania Economic Analysis .......................................................... 22 Positive Spillover Effects from Rehabilitation Projects ....................................................................... 24 Section 5: Tax rehabilitation. The section also contains an interstate comparison that examines whether state tax credits leverage or motivate additional federal tax credits. Section 5 concludes the review with the tax credit plan, as required by Act 48. A complete list of reports

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

be considered for appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to pro- duce

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

be considered for appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to pro- duce

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

2003 Legislative Session) – Appendix VIII . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313 House Resolution No. 36 (2007 Legislative Session) – Appendix IX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323 Correspondence Requesting Guidance from Federal Authorities – Appendix X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355 “SEC Halts Watch List Tool” Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2007 – Appendix XI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359 Federal Legislation (H. R. 2347 and H. R. 180) – Appendix XII . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407 “Governor Rendell Helps Break Ground on Westinghouse Nuclear Headquarters

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

Outlook .............................................................................................. 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19 Section 4: Revenue into the year ($1.9 billion). The analysis also projects flat income growth for the current calendar year as various federal relief programs end and consumer spending slows. From FY 2021-22 to FY 2025-26, the forecast projects that General

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of business closures, other mitigation efforts and increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of business closures, other mitigation efforts and increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

Boback and Petrarca: This letter responds to your request for an analysis of child welfare program funding in Pennsylvania from federal, state and local sources. Specifically, your letter requests a fiscal analysis of the federal Family First Prevention Services Act (Family First). Family First provides new federal funding for certain evidence- based prevention services, but

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

of seven that has an annual dollar cap on total awards. Similar to other states, Pennsylvania follows the federal tax code to determine spending that qualifies as research and development. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of an increase in QRE over a base period (two simple examples appear on page 8). Pennsylvania follows the federal RDTC definitions for QRE, and firms must certify that their business activities satisfy the criteria defined in statute. 3 If these requirements

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT.pdf

Expenditures by Fund General Fund (State) $1.1 $1.8 $1.6 $1.6 $1.5 $3.1 General Fund (Federal) 67.4 50.4 41.8 63.7 60.1 262.6 General Fund (Restricted) 6.7 7.5 7 894.3 1,895.2 1,758.2 1,739.5 1,658.7 2,098.1 Motor License Fund (Federal) 10.0 16.2 18.0 19.2 24.8 89.0 Motor License Fund (Restricted) 1 1,916.8

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

17 states that levy a CNIT require separate 2 However, Iowa allows a deduction for one-half of federal income tax paid so that the effective tax rate is 12.00 * (1 – 0.21 * 0.5) = 10.74 percent. 3 Wolters on July 1, 2020. Source: CCH State Tax SmartCharts (April 2020). 1 State allows corporation to deduct all federal taxes paid from state taxable income. 2 State allows corporation to deduct up to 50% of federal taxes paid from state taxable

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

that projections incorporate technical adjustments. For example, corporate net income tax revenues are temporarily low due to conformity with the federal provision that provides for the full expensing of eligible investment placed in service during the last four months of 2010 sharply reduced loans to consumers, businesses and other financial institutions. In an effort to restore liquidity to financial markets, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 150 basis points and established special programs to make funds available to financial

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

children.  Over 2.9 million adults and children were enrolled in Medical Assistance (MA), which includes the federal Medicaid program. Of the MA enrollees, 602,100 individuals received behavioral health services, including approximately 250,000 individuals diagnosed with a substance 1 Funding by Source for FY 2019-20 General Fund - State 21% General Fund - Augmentations 15% General Fund - Federal 63% Special Funds 1% Department of Human Services Overview | Page 8 14-15 Actual 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the 3) $50,000 to $99,999 and (4) $100,000 or more. The analysis also includes an itemization of the federal monies disbursed directly to state residents since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and provides a brief discussion of

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

misuse 7 Vital Statistics.................................................................... Record vital events timely and accurately 8 Women, Infants and Children (WIC)............................. Administer the federal WIC program 9 Maternal and Child Health............................................... Improve the health of women, children and families 10 Health Research................................................................ Promote health research to number of drug-related overdose deaths in Pennsylvania has declined by 18 percent from 2017. Participation in the federal Women, Infants and Children (WIC) program has been declining in Pennsylvania. From FY 2014-15 to FY 2018-19, the number of

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue variables. The Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reduction enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue variables. The Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reductions enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

Corporate Profits 3.0% -15.0% -25.0% Table 2 CY 2020 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates Notes: Excludes impact of federal stimulus. Corporate profits are domestic profits for non-financial firms. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 The economic growth rates do not reflect the potential impact of federal stimulus. The federal stimulus will support consumer purchases, the rehiring (or retention) of employees and on-going business operations, and

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT.pdf

1,573.7 1,434.2 1,540.6 2,152.8 1,770.5 2,165.3 General Fund (Federal) 10,337.4 12,687.3 10,879.5 11,982.4 15,029.4 14,445.1 Tobacco Settlement by Source for FY 2020-21 General Fund - State 28% General Fund - Augmentations 9% Tobacco Settlement Fund 1% General Fund - Federal 62% 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Budget Average

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

the General Appropriations Act. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after the deduction of certain expenses. Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. A separate report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast for calendar years 2019 and 2020 projects

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

Prior Year .............................................. 3 Subsector Detail: PA Employment Change From Prior Year ......................................... 4 Recent Pennsylvania Economic Trends ..................................................................... 5 Actual and Projected Federal Relief for Pennsylvania ................................................. 6 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth Rates ........................................................... 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ........................................................................ 8 Net Domestic Migration Trends 86 -36 -38 -32.8 -13.4 -14.5 All Government -17 -7 -32 -2.3 -1.0 -4.4 Federal 2 10 1 2.5 9.9 1.2 State 1 -3 -9 0.6 -2.0 -5.8 Local

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT.pdf

2022, will employ 50 to 60 state employees and enroll 150 to 250 at-risk youth annually. This school is federally funded with a 25 percent state match. 1 The 393 residents includes residents who tested positive more than once. Activity 0 $156.8 General Fund (Augmentations) 34.1 32.1 30.5 30.1 28.2 26.4 General Fund (Federal) 126.4 131.6 134.7 138.8 164.5 211.4 State Treasury Armory Fund 1.5 0.9

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

FY 2019-20 budgeted funds are spending authority and may not reflect actual projected spend- ing. For example, federal spending authority allows for current and potential future funding oppor- tunities within the budget year. Activity Primary Service 1 Clean Water…………………………………………………... Protect and preserve the waters of the Commonwealth 2 Safe Drinking Water……………………………………... Manage the federal and state Safe Drinking Water Act 3 Waterways and Wetlands…………………………….. Regulate dams, reservoirs and water obstructions 4 Chesapeake Bay……………………………………………. Manage state activities

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

A project or service that addresses the decline of a neighborhood or the needs of a vulnerable population. IMPACT ON FEDERAL INCOME TAXES The award of a NAP tax credit in conjunction with a contribution to a qualified nonprofit organization results in a higher federal income tax liability, as compared to a direct donation absent the credit. However, the final cash outlay associated with the

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

s Department of Revenue employed an estimation methodology that used tax return data from Minnesota to match taxpayers based on federal taxpayer identification numbers. 7 Using this method, Wisconsin estimated a base expansion of 4% for non-bank corporate tax collections DOR estimate assumes a different pattern of payments based on their analysis of 2018 tax returns after passage of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), as discussed in a memo transmitted to the House Appropriations Committee (February 28, 2020

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

other human-made disasters. PEMA supports county emergency management agencies by coordinating and engaging the whole community including federal and state partners, volunteer organizations involved in disasters, private sector business community and citizens. The agency develops and maintains a comprehensive plan spent a total of $7.2 million for disaster mitigation and $13.9 million for disaster recovery (both federal and non-federal monies). Activity Primary Service 1 911 Emergency Telecommunication………………Manage and coordinate 911 telecommunication systems 2 Planning, Training and Outreach

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

in this report due to the uncertainty of economic outcomes and unanticipated technical factors, such as changes to federal tax laws and federal matching funds. The economic projections displayed in this report motivate most General Fund revenues through FY 2024- 25. The projections do not

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT.pdf

worship and large gatherings to protect the Commonwealth against foreign and domestic terrorism. ▪ Providing forensic laboratory services to approximately 900 federal, state and local law enforce- ment agencies in 2020, completing over 36,000 cases and reducing backlogs. ▪ Completing firearm background million in Coronavirus Relief Funds. These monies, used for personnel expenses, are shown throughout the report in the General Fund (Federal) category. 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Budget Expenditure

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

states. The third section discusses the entities who bear the economic and statutory burden of the tax. Due to recent federal rate cuts, a number of analyses can be surveyed for that purpose. The fourth section considers trends in CNIT revenues states levy a rate between 6.0 and 7.0 percent (inclusive). Because the state CNIT is fully deductible for federal income tax purposes, the effective tax rate (ETR, third column) will be lower by 21 percent, which is equal to

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

137Testimony of Jean Friday, President, PA Alliance for Retired Americans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .141Testimony of Dominic Sgro, Director of District Council 83, American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) Council 13.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .144Testimony of Les Neri, President, Fraternal Order of Police, PA State Lodge.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152Testimony of Jeanne M. Boone, Former President, Philadelphia American Federation of Teachers’ Retirement Chapter. . . . . . . . . . . .154•Appendix 2 – Actuarial Note Provided by David H. Killick,Consulting Actuary, Conrad Siegel Actuaries. . . . . . . . . . . . .157

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

or lottery purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal income tax returns are adjusted

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal income tax returns are adjusted to account

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

2019-20 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 13 FY 2020-21 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 14 Growth of Top 3 Revenue Sources ....................................................................................................... 15 Impact of Federal Changes on Tobacco Taxes ................................................................................. 16 Lottery Sales and Net Revenues ............................................................................................................ 17 Gaming Expansion Revenues .................................................................................................................. 18 State and Local Tax Burden 3.7% -- Growth Rate or Annual Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Zillow, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Note: Data for 2020 are forecasts by IFO. UE is

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

Wage | Page 11 Raising the Minimum Wage The administration proposes to raise the state minimum wage from the federal minimum of $7.25 to $12.00 per hour on July 1, 2019, and increase that amount by $0.50 every year 1, 2019, Pennsylvania and 20 other states do not require employers to pay a wage that exceeds the federal minimum of $7.25 per hour. (See Table 2.1 on next page.) By contrast, 13 states and the District of Columbia

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal income tax returns are adjusted to account

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RB-2015-04.pdf

states for 2015 and 2016. For 2015, all adjacent states require that employers pay a minimum wage that exceeds the federal minimum of $7.25 per hour. For New Jersey and Ohio, the state minimum wage is tied to in Ðlation be subject to the 3.07 percent state personal income tax, which would further reduce the gain to $5,295. Federal income tax may also apply, depending on the characteristics of the worker. Table 1 Minimum Wage in Adjacent States 2015

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

that is (1) deployed in unserved or underserved areas and (2) meets minimum speed require- ments (typically the federal standard of 25 Mbps download and 3 Mbps upload). Certain states also offer miscellaneous broadband related incentives, such as sales tax (e Minimum speed requirements apply and the program expires June 30, 2020. In addition to state incentive programs, the federal government provides 50 broadband related programs that offer grants, loans and other forms of assistance. The programs include support for private firms

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

Homes in the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. The cost estimates are broken out by type of funding (state, federal or lottery funds). This analysis does not include any state or federal expenditures for non-Medicaid programs without age restrictions (e.g., public safety, state parks, food and nutrition assistance). These programs

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

 Grants to address issues of substance abuse ($3.8 million). PCCD also awarded $64.0 million in federally funded grants to 230 local governments and non-profits. FY 2018-19 Budgeted Expenditures by Activity Note: Expenditures in dollar millions. The 3 Monetary Penalty Endowments Trust Fund 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.3 4.8 Federal Funds 41.4 39.6 43.2 46.6 60.6 156.0 Augmentations 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.3

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

Data ................................................................................................................................ 7 Section 3: Background and Government Policies ................................................................... 13 Agriculture in Pennsylvania ............................................................................................................ 13 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement .......................................................................................... 15 State and Federal Programs ........................................................................................................... 17 Section 5: National and State Studies .................................................................................... 21 Key Findings from National Studies ................................................................................................. 21 Key Findings from Other State Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement. It concludes with a summary of various programs that have been implemented at the state and federal level to reduce agricultural pollution in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Section 4 provides relevant research on the cost and environmental

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

total applications (e.g., tax credits and grants), processed over 2,200 contracts and monitored nearly 1,500 federal grants. Partnered with a variety of economic development partners across the state in order to conduct over 100,000 trainings to Commonwealth workers and government officials.  Leveraged state and federal funds to provide housing assistance and services to nearly 2,000 indi- viduals and families. Activity Primary Service 1 Business Attraction and

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

to the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. At this point, it is not known whether the federal government will enact additional stimulus. If stimulus is enacted, it would increase the revenue estimates contained in this report. Questions or comments the first four months of the fiscal year. An important factor that drives that outcome is the substantial federal stimulus monies that have been injected into the state economy. Table 1.2 contains (1) IFO estimates of foregone labor income due

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

for the most recent refinances are not yet available. However, a Freddie Mac Research Note from March 2019 analyzed the Federal Housing Finance Agency National Survey of Mortgage Originations for loans originated from January 2013 through December 2016. 1 For borrowers excludes capital gains, which will accrue disproportionately to high income households. From 2012 to 2018, total reported capital gains on federal income tax returns increased by roughly 56 percent, or 7.7 percent per annum during the six- year time period

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

major program of caring for seniors for FY 2017-18 actual and FY 2019-20 budgeted expenditures. You requested that federal funds and the Lottery Fund be itemized separately from all other state funds.  For the same years, actual and Homes in the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. The cost estimates are broken out by type of funding (state, federal or September 23, 2019 Page 2 lottery funds). This analysis does not include any state or federal expenditures for non-

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MER-2014-09.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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Independent Fiscal Office

IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus. ... (Full Report) May 2021 Revenue Update Revenue & Economic Update June 01, 2021 The Commonwealth collected $3.95 billion in

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TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf

August 24, 2018 Page 2 the federal income tax returns filed by Pennsylvania residents, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is unable to simulate the number of taxpayers that would be affected and the potential increase in after- tax income due to the federal tax cut. Therefore, the data from Table 1 represent the upper limit on the number of taxpayers that could be

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 The adjustments are based on data from federal income tax returns by state (published by the IRS) and Tables SAINC4 and SAINC40 from the National Income and Product Accounts. The

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 The adjustments are based on data from federal income tax returns by state (published by the IRS) and Tables SAINC4 and SAINC40 from the National Income and Product Accounts. The

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SR2017-03.pdf

Page 1 Methodology This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines similar to sales taxes because they are generated by the voluntary consumption of a good or service. 1 .See “Effective Federal Tax Rates, 1979 to 1997” (Congressional Budget Office, October 2001) and “Tax Foundation State-Local Tax Burden Estimates: An Overview

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

2013 2013 Revenue Conference 3 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real Gross State Product May 2012 1.9% Global Insight. Primary Economic Driver: Consumer Spending  Consumers must drive economic growth. o Comprise 70% of economic activity. o Federal, state and local budgets are constrained. o Weak overseas demand.  Sales and Use Tax collections have been very weak

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

 Collection and sale of surplus state property and provision of purchasing opportunities for certain new and used federal equipment to local governments, law enforcement agencies and eligible non- profit organizations; recycling of used Commonwealth property and materials when possible.  allocate portions of rental charges, utility and facility maintenance costs to other funding sources including special funds and federal funds, which may reduce General Fund appropriations required to pay for these costs. Develop an occupancy report. This review recommends that DGS

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Mortgage Originations Grow 87% as Homeowners Refinance The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released household debt and credit data for 2019 Q4. Mortgage origi- nations grew by 87% 6.6% across all ages over the prior year, with significant growth in the age 18-29 category (21.7%). Federal Balance of Payments Estimated for Federal Fiscal Year 2018 The Office of the New York State Comptroller released a report

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office May 26, 2021 Key Issues and Questions Economy overperforms due to massive federal transfers ▪ Nearly $160 billion of federal monies injected into state Four key questions ▪ What happens when federal monies are removed? ▪ Is there a labor shortage? ▪ Is

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

applies the proposed rate reduction to the IFO’s most recent CNIT baseline projection (includes impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017). The estimate includes a behavioral impact that partially offsets the revenue loss due to the reporting. Consol- idated reporting allows related affiliates/firms to combine tax reports into one filing, similar to the federal consolidated return, rather than combine income from all states in which the taxpayer may or may not have nexus. 18-19 19-

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

22, 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was signed into law. The act made significant changes to the federal individual income and corporate net income tax codes that generally became effective for tax year 2018. Recently, the IRS released state level tax data that reveal the impact that tax law changes had on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. This research brief provides a general analysis of those impacts and how tax law changes affected federal income

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100% bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

2018. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts by IFO. May.01.2018 7 Recent PA Economic Growth Rates 2017.1 2017.2 2017 12.4% 10.0% Note: All growth rates are year-over-year and based on the latest published values from federal agencies. Net job gains based on non-seasonally adjusted data and exclude self-employed individuals. Sources: U.S. Bureau of

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

FY 2018-19. Pennsylvania ranks 14 th nationally in total bank assets, which includes assets of state and federally chartered banks in the state. Nationally, 79 percent of all banks are chartered and supervised by state regulators and they provide half well as allow the condition of Pennsylvania state-chartered depository institutions to be benchmarked with other states and federal reg- ulators. (See page 7 for more discussion on CAMELS ratings.) Publish depository institution fee schedules and provide a comparison to selected

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts.  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data and tax reform.  Federal tax cut: economic and General Fund impact.  Revenues: FY 17-18 update; preliminary look at FY 18-19. Public Social 14.3 11.2 23.7 24.6 Leisure-Hospitality 5.1 7.5 13.1 17.9 State-Federal Govt -2.0 0.3 0.9 -2.0 Local Government -7.3 -6.8 -0.9 -1.8 All

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

the Independent Fiscal Office February 8, 2013 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan The office does not seek to duplicate services provided by the standing committees, but it seeks to use available state, federal and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. Reports The IFO publishes

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts May 26, 2020 2 February 29 First U.S. death from 9.4% 3.0% n.a. Note: IHS Markit forecast released May 12. CBO released May 19. Large Injection of Federal Monies May 26, 2020 5 Estimate Estimate Individual Provisions Federal Grants Economic Impact Payments $10.8 State Governments $5.8

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts June 22, 2020 2 February 29 First U.S. death from 9.4% 3.0% n.a. Note: IHS Markit forecast released May 12. CBO released May 19. Large Injection of Federal Monies June 22, 2020 5 Estimate Estimate Individual Provisions Federal Grants Economic Impact Payments $10.8 State Governments $5.9

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Losses 7 Pennsylvania Income Sources 8 State Metric Comparison 9 Pennsylvania Demographic Trends 10 State Migration Comparison 11 Revenues and Federal Income Tax Reform Revenues Through January 12 Revenue Uncertainty for FY 2017‐18 13 Major Revenue Sources Over Time 14 State Comparison ‐ Tax Burdens 15 Simulation: Impact of Federal Tax Reform 16 Pennsylvania Federal Income Tax Data (2015) 17 Natural Gas Trends Production, Price and Impact Fee Trends 18

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure offsets State budget ▪ What are the revenue trends? ▪ What is the longer-term CES State and Metro Area Employment. Years Needed for Full PA Jobs Recovery February 19, 2021 11 Actual and Projected Federal Relief for PA February 19, 2021 12 2020 2021 Notes Payments to Individuals State Unemployment Comp $5.2 $1.6

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

Government tightening. o Firms not investing due to uncertainty; weak demand. Federal and state gov’ts unlikely to contribute. o Federal – debt ceiling debate, continuing sequester. o State and Local – pensions and health care benefits. o Monetary Policy - pull back to 0.5% 3 Net Exports 0.1% 0.1% -0.4% 4 Government -0.2% -0.4% 0.0% a Federal -0.1% -0.4% 0.0% b State-Local -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% Source: IHS Global Insight and

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

2 General Fund (Augmentations) 6.0 6.2 6.6 7.0 6.5 5.5 General Fund (Federal) 1.5 1.7 2.9 1.5 3.9 20.4 General Fund (Restricted) 53.1 55.7 59.2 60 66 General Fund (Augmentations) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 General Fund (Federal) 1.01 0.22 1.66 0.75 2.58 17.40 Total 3.90 4.20 6.25 5.17 5

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MER-2014-07.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf

fully taxable fully taxable exempt Colorado $20,000/$24,000 $20,000/$24,000 depends on income Connecticut same as federal same as federal depends on income Delaware $2,000/$12,500 $2,000/$12,500 exempt Florida n.a. n.a. n.a

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

of the 2017 tax act on the economy and budget  A primer about how CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs Explaining Analytical Methods: Providing General Information 6 CBO At other times, CBO explains its methods by providing technical appendix describing how CBO analyzed the distribution of household income  A slide deck about modeling the subsidy rate for federal single-family mortgage insurance  An appendix describing how CBO estimates the operating costs of Air Force aircraft  A

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up well, and actual estimate, and despite the current legal challenge, we have not removed it because the final outcome is not clear. Second, federal tax law changes make it difficult to discern underlying trends in corporate net income and personal non-withholding taxes because

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FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP). The analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

by any other government body pertaining to pension or retirement benefits or rights of school employees. (g) References to certain Federal statutes.--References in this part to the IRC or the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act of 1994 (Public 22, 1965 and prior to July 1, 1975 administers, supervises, or teaches classes financed wholly or in part by the Federal Government so long as he continues in such service. (4) Any part-time school employee who has an individual retirement

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones.pdf

up to 75 percent but must be used within the year of sale or assignment. 9 4 Enterprise zones include Federal Opportunity Zones, Keystone Opportunity Zones (KOZs), Keystone Opportunity Expansion Zones (KOEZs) and Keystone Opportunity Investment Zones (KOIZs). 5 This does credit (i.e., 100 percent are incentivized) and does not consider an alternate use of the state funds. 15 The Federal Brownfields Tax Incentive, Case Studies and Analysis of Impacts (2015) Another report by Redevelopment Economics and prepared for the New

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

Total -25.5 excludes any unreported income UC and Individual Rebates State UC $5.2 average of $330 per week Federal Pandemic UC 15.9 program has concluded Other Federal Assistance 10.2 PUA ($7.0b), LWA ($1.8b), PEUC ($0.9b) Economic Impact Payments 11.0 goes to 6

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

Service 11.1 22.6 26.9 30.0 Leisure-Hospitality 7.9 12.4 8.6 10.8 State-Federal Gov’t 0.2 1.0 -0.6 -0.3 Local Gov’t -6.7 -2.2 0.6 -1 Figures for 2018 based on preliminary data through December. Factors That Could Impact Growth Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal shut down (?)  Federal tax cut / refunds  Consumer sentiment  Stock market volatility Maintain / Boost  Strong labor market

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

over $50, motor vehicle theft and arson. 2 Average annual growth rate. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Bureau of Investigation. Calculations by the IFO. State Benchmarks | Page 6 in 2006. This trend contrasts with large reductions in the incarceration 2.1 2.2 Manufacturing Fund 57.8 64.7 62.2 68.8 76.4 82.4 Federal Funds 3.9 5.4 5.1 3.4 4.9 4.0 General Fund Augmentations 5.5 23.6 5.7

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MER-2015-03.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2013-12.pdf

of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes- simism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

further questions, please do not hesitate to contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director Enclosures 3 Table A Pennsylvania Federal Tax Returns by Age of Primary Income Filer and Domestic Migration from 2013 to 2014 Number of Federal Tax Returns in/from Pennsylvania Net Migration as a share of total returns in 2014 Age Group of Primary Tax

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

The office does not intend to duplicate services provided by the standing committees, but it seeks to use available state, federal and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. Independent Fiscal Office ‐ Overview 11.2% 12.1% 15.2% 11.9% 9.1% n.a. Note: Corporate profits exclude foreign profits and the Federal Reserve, but includes S corporations. The S&P 500 Index measured last trading day of quarter. The value for 2016

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

considers collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth and the following six labor unions: 1 • Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA) • Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) • Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania • Pennsylvania State Education Association the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. 1 The IFO has combined the analysis of these collective bargaining agreements due to the small number of employees

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior to rate

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior to rate

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

Future years: potential deficits likely grow due to aging population, rising interest rates and modest revenue growth 1 Impact of Federal Tax Reform on Pennsylvania Anticipate large increase in PA disposable income for FY 2018-19  US personal income tax Miscellaneous issues  Static vs. dynamic revenue impact  Most non-financial business activity in Pennsylvania is non-corporate 2 Federal 100% Bonus Depreciation Policy has a significant impact on total U.S. tax deductions claimed  100% federal bonus depreciation

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

2021 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office June 17, 2021 Three Issues Dominate Economic and Budget Outlook What happens when federal support expires? ▪ Nearly $160 billion of federal monies injected into state ▪ What happens to income levels when support is removed? When do workers return? Will jobs be

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

regulations. Since 2006, an average of ten banks per year have closed or been acquired, according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Two major economic forces have contributed to consolidation in the banking industry. First, the financial crisis a weaker financial position, and therefore open to acquisitions by larger banks. Second, in response to the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve required banks to hold greater stores of capital, and smaller banks became less viable as the capital requirements had

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits  An FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  New federal funds available through December 2024 (much is restricted)  IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

Over $25 Billion in Unemployment Benefits Since March On August 11, the Wall Street Journal released an analysis of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) program. From early April to July 31, the federal government spent nearly $250 billion on the extra $600 per week unemployment benefits. Data from the Department of Labor and

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MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf

salary increases consistent with the new collective bargaining agreements. For the purpose of this analysis, the IFO applied the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) ratified contract to all full-time, permanent employees classified as management (except Department the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For

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MER-2014-02.pdf

of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes‐ simism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 12, 2016 Fund. • For Other State Funds, the total annual costs are nominal. The three-year total is $0.1 million. • For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.3 million (FY 2016-17), $0.8 million (FY 2017-18) and $1.5

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Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and SEIU Local 668. The analysis uses the FY 2017- 18) and $12.1 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $20.8 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $5.1 million (FY 2016-17), $16.1 million (FY 2017-18) and $29.5

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Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of August 12, 2016 million (FY 2017-18) and $0.1 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $0.3 million. • For Federal Funds, the total annual costs are nominal. The three-year total is $0.1 million. • For All Funds, the total

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Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and AFSCME Council 13. The analysis uses the FY 2017- 18) and $72.7 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $125.2 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $5.3 million (FY 2016-17), $16.8 million (FY 2017-18) and $30.5

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the applicable fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For FY 2022-23) and $0.2 million (FY 2023-24). The four-year total is $0.6 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are nominal (FY 2020-21), $0.1 million (FY 2021-22), $0.1 million (FY 2022-

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

Act of 2010. That Act temporarily reduced the payroll taxes that employers withheld from employee paychecks and remitted to the federal government. On December 23, 2011, the President signed the “Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011.” That Act extends How will the proposed extension affect Commonwealth residents and tax revenues for the current and subsequent fiscal years? BACKGROUND The Federal Insurance Contributions Act tax (FICA, also known as the payroll tax) has two parts: (1) the old age, survivors and

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

5) the coordinator has conducted a site visit.  First page and signed pages of the applicant’s federal tax returns for the base year and comparable tax years.  DOR issued Tax Compliance Form.  Tax Credit Sale and Assignment to promote economic and community development around qualified institutions of higher education, nonprofit organi- zations affiliated with a federal agency or regional higher education centers. Entities are designated as “qualified” if they demonstrate the intention to invest financially in the geographic

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

the true economic burden.  Business vs. non-business distinction is not meaningful in many cases.  Excludes impacts on federal income taxes. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 18 Table 7 Change in 75% Source: Property Tax Rates from MN Taxpayer's Association. Rates are for 2009. Other rates are statutory maximums from Federation of Tax Administrators for 2012. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 27 Federal

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SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Other State Funds over the four-year period.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.2 million (FY 2019-20), $0.4 million (FY 2020-21), $0.6 million

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SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. 1 Those costs can be summarized as follows:  FY 2021-22) and $0.6 million (FY 2022-23). The four-year total is $1.5 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $1.5 million (FY 2019-20), $3.2 million (FY 2020-21), $5.0 million

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior to rate

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PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There is no impact on the General Fund, the Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period.  For Other State Funds, the total costs are $0.1 million (FY 2019-

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PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the applicable fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For FY 2022-23) and $0.6 million (FY 2023-24). The four-year total is $2.4 million.  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.9 million (FY 2020-21), $1.2 million (FY 2021-22), $1.2 million

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

revenue growth: 16-17 (+1.6%) | 17-18 (+3.9%). FY 18-19: tax revenue growth of +4.2%.  Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy.  Corporate base expansion enhances revenues.  Tight labor market sustains wage growth for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.12.2018 5 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s

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PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four- year period.  For Other State Funds, the total costs are $0.4 million (FY 2019-

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PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. 1 Those costs can be summarized as follows:  estimates that these changes will cost $1.4 million over the contract term. November 6, 2019 Page 3  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.6 million (FY 2019-20), $1.3 million (FY 2020-21), $2.0 million

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

Paid -1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 12.0% 8.0% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) -517 -468 -444 -423 -362 Federal Stimulus ($ billions) $12.6 $3.6 $32.3 $10.8 $5.4 Philadelphia CPI-U All Items 0.4% 0 year-over-year change and compares to a no-pandemic scenario. Payroll jobs figure for 2021.3 reflects July only. Federal stimulus includes PPP loans, expanded SNAP, advance child tax credit payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates

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OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For 2 million (FY 2022-23). The four-year total is $0.5 million. November 6, 2019 Page 3  For Federal Funds, the total costs are $0.4 million (FY 2019-20), $0.8 million (FY 2020-21), $1.2 million

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

on PA Taxpayers The IRS released state-level data for tax year 2018 that reveal the significant impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania residents that filed a federal income tax return. Major provisions of the act include: lower tax rates, a $10,000 cap on the state and

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MER-2014-03.pdf

of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes‐ simism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

ITEP The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization that works on federal, state, and local tax policy issues. ITEP's mission is to ensure that elected officials, the media, and the general all retirement income  Tax forgiveness credit  Sales tax base excludes groceries State Corporate Income Taxes in Decline  Federal & state corp taxes falling as % of GSP, income, total taxes  Decline is more rapid at state level  Collections

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ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There is no impact on the General Fund, Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four-year period.  For Other State Funds, the total costs are $1.7 million (FY 2019-

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

Affordable Care Act (PPACA)  Provision allows states to expand their MA program.  Individuals with incomes up to 133% federal poverty line (FPL).  2014-16 federal government picks up 100% of costs.  Phase-down process through 2019, 90% fed/10% state. The Economic and Budget

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

budget surplus this year and next, then deficits  A FY 19-20 + FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  Massive federal stimulus temporarily fills underlying structural deficit  IFO estimates at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant  Significant monies

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CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  For 5 million (FY 2022-23). The four-year total is $13.1 million. February 26, 2020 Page 3  For Federal Funds, the total costs are nominal for FYs 2019-20 through 2021-22 and $0.1 million (FY 2022-23

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

The office does not intend to duplicate services provided by the standing committees, but it seeks to use available state, federal and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. 2 IFO Reports and Leisure-Hospitality 505 533 29 5.7% Other Service 254 259 5 1.9% Government 748 711 -37 -5.0% Federal 103 97 -6 -6.1% State 645 614 -31 -4.8% Total 5,818 5,769 -50 -0.9% United

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ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds for the current fiscal year and subsequent three fiscal years. Those costs can be summarized as follows:  There is no impact on the General Fund, the Motor License Fund or Federal Funds over the four-year period.  For Other State Funds, the total costs are $0.1 million (FY 2019-

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

state level. Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative num- ber indicates increasing pessimism. Data are from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ) average price for one gallon of unleaded gasoline

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

average hourly wage (excluding benefits) for each newly-created job must be at least 150 percent of the Federal minimum wage (currently $7.25 per hour) which equals $10.88 per hour. The JCTC is one of 22 credits subject to 500, the credit offsets roughly 1.4 percent of the total cost. Alternatively, at 150 percent of the Federal minimum wage ($10.88 per hour) and 30 percent in benefit costs, or $29,400 per year, the credit offsets 3.4

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

for use tax, unless they also store the aircraft out of state. 4 See Advisory Circular 120-12A, Federal Aviation Administration, 4/24/86. 5 Ibid. Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 foreign commerce or (3) the sale of the aircraft is able to procure a time series of state employment or sales data for the aircraft industry from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or an industry representative. 8 Therefore, it was necessary to construct a dataset from figures that are publicly available

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

data are preliminary. Other data largely final. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Authority, Zillow. Change in PA Payroll Employment (000s) May 20, 2019 6 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 Mining- Assistance 22.4 26.4 27.2 27.1 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 9.1 4.9 7.8 State-Federal Government 1.1 -0.2 -1.3 1.0 Local Government -2.3 0.5 1.0 -0.7 All

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

18. 7/14/2017 3 Post-Recession Budgets The 2008-2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets.  Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years.  Spending reductions / restraint for many program areas. Since the recession, budgets Larger share of income not subject to tax: Social Security, Pensions, IRAs.  Age 65+ reports 21% of income on federal tax returns, much of it nontaxable. Sales and Use Tax.  Elderly buy fewer durable goods that are taxable. Significant

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platt ppt.pdf

Information Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Accomodations & Food Service Other Services Utilities Farm Ag. Services Railroads Mining Military Arts, Entertainment, & Rec. Federal Civilian Govt Educational Services State and Local Govt Health care Dollar Changes in PA Wages 2008Q2-2009Q3 (in millions of 000 0 5,000 10,000 15,00020,000 Total Information Railroads Military Ag. Services Farm Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Federal Civilian Govt State and Local Govt Nondurable Manufacturing Utilities Finance & Insurance Retail Trade Construction Arts, Entertainment, & Rec. Other Services Accomodations

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

for 2017 Q1 and Q2 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Admin., Federal Housing Finance Agency. Change in Payroll Employment (000s) June 7, 2017 12 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mining 1.7 -3

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

18, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 $24.3 20 -64.7% -31.0% -28.3% Clothing and Accessory Stores -27 -21 -19 -65.1% -50.5% -48.0% Federal Government 2 3 9 2.5% 3.4% 8.9% Home Health Care 0 3 3 0.1% 3.7%

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

Expenses (QRE) ▪ $11m for small firms | $44m for others ▪ Credit has been oversubscribed since FY 2016-17 ▪ Partly due to federal R&D credit made permanent ▪ Proration factors: small 68% | large 38% Most states offer some type of R&D incentive 1,800m), TX ($660m), MA ($242m) ▪ PA offers a mid-tier dollar credit ($55m) | typical credit rates ▪ All states use federal definitions for QRE ▪ Nearly all use a form of an incremental base computation January 23, 2020 7 Research and Development

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

by 22 percent. The January trend in CNIT payments likely reflects income and deduction shifting by taxpayers in response to federal tax law changes. Personal income tax (PIT) quarterly payments were again exceptionally strong in January, exceeding estimate by $81 million. It is expected that tax filers are taking advantage of the final year of the uncapped federal deduction for state and local taxes (SALT), by overpaying for tax year 2017. This behavioral response to federal tax law

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

increasing at a faster rate. The median home sales price grew to $173,000 (2.8%) and data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency confirm these trends in Pennsylvania (3.7% sales price growth). Other data show the months’ supply of nation, Pennsylvania’s median sales price typically grows more slowly, resulting in a more affordable housing market. However, the recent Federal Reserve decision to increase interest rates may hinder affordability for some buyers and restrain prices, as prices typically grow more

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

shift to e-commerce and (2) it shifted consumption away from services and towards goods. Data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve show that e-commerce comprised 14.3% of total retail sales in 2020 Q3, up from 11.8% in but services are generally exempt. Consumer Debt Increases from Prior Year, Credit Card Balances Continue to Decline The New York Federal Reserve Bank released consumer debt data for 2020 Q3. Pennsylvania consumer debt declined 0.9% from the prior year to

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MER-2014-05.pdf

S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

18.7 Leisure-Hospitality 7.5 13.1 9.6 Local Gov’t -6.8 -0.9 -0.7 State-Federal Gov’t 0.3 0.9 0.1 All Other 1.5 9.3 4.4 Annual Job Gains 46 Wage growth for 2017 Q1 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

a contracting labor force  Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  Expenditures significant growth due to one-time measures Analysis finds a ~$2.0 billion structural deficit  November Statistics. Forecast by IFO. CY 2020 PA Cash Income Growth Very Strong January 21, 2021 10 Source: Various state and federal agency websites. See IFO Official Revenue Estimate Methodology (June 2020). Disconnect: Labor Market vs Other PA Indicators January 21, 2021

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

the fiscal year. Factors that likely affected economic growth and tax revenues in 2013, such as the expiration of the federal payroll tax cut and the federal budget sequester, should be fully absorbed at this point. However, recent wage growth and consumer spending does not appear to

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of man- ufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2002_drop_report.pdf

with municipal codes, Act 205 and the Municipal Police Pension Law. In the absence of carefully crafted legislation, compliance with federal anti-discrimination rules and the Internal Revenue Code could be problematic as well. Under a DROP, the employee forgoes somewhat the ongoing ad hoc implementation of DROPs by Pennsylvania local governments, and the clear need to integrate DROPs with existing federal and state laws, such as the Internal Revenue Code, The Age Discrimination in Employment Act, the Pension Forfeiture Act, the

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable to the reversal of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation, which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than- expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year 2012, prior to rate

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Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf

significant resources to ensuring compliance with PIT laws, including the matching of September 30, 2019 Page 2 state returns with federal tax data. Since local collectors lack these resources, imposing the tax at the local level would likely produce reduced collections Assuming that under the proposal, contributions to retirement accounts would now be exempt and distributions would be taxable (consistent with federal tax law), Pennsylvania would immediately lose the PIT paid on new employee contributions (tax is now delayed until retirement). These

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

market  Solid income growth  Stable interest rates  Low/stable energy prices Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal policy uncertainty  Federal tax cut / refunds  Consumer sentiment  Stock market volatility Gaming Expansion Estimates March 1, 2019 14 17-18 18-

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.04.2018 3 Two Estimates of the Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 -$168.5 Corporate Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.04.2018 5 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mining -3.8

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf

2 Total 183.3 226.0 617.2 1,026.4 25.9 88.4 Note: Amounts in $ millions. The Federal GF column contains the appropriated amounts from federal COVID-19 relief funds that are temporarily being used to replace state GF GGO expenses. PSP Metric Highlights PSP covered

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Sources $2,126 7.7% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $530 1.9% State (exclude Act 1) $9,492 34.4% Federal $815 3.0% Other (debt related) $855 3.1% Total $27,578 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 19.May.2017 Annual Growth Rate of Tax Revenues Income Property Sales Great Recession Federal Rate Increase 11 19.May.2017 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

9, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 $24.3 22 -64.7% -31.0% -30.8% Clothing and Accessory Stores -27 -21 -19 -65.1% -50.5% -47.3% Federal Government 2 3 4 2.5% 3.4% 8.9% Home Health Care 0 3 3 0.1% 3.7%

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

That pace reflects the strongest 3-month gain since April 2012. A strong labor market and higher discretionary income from federal tax cuts are likely two relevant factors that contribute to that outcome. PA Consumer Debt Increases 0.6% in 2018 Q2 On August 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for 2018 Q2. For Pennsylvania, the data show a modest increase

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

partially offset by weaker than expected CNIT (-$42 million, -3.3%) and escheats (-$29 million, -133.2%) remittances. Recently enacted federal tax legislation had a material impact on December revenues. For CNIT, it is likely that estimated payments reflect a shifting of income out of tax year 2017 into tax year 2018 due to the significant federal rate reduction. Firms may have also accelerated deductions in the opposite direction to reduce 2017 tax liability. The IFO projects

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

Various national and state data suggest that taxpayers shifted income out of calendar year 2016 in anticipation of a significant federal income tax rate cut. The IFO’s official estimate assumed that most of that income would be reported in 2017, and would have a positive impact on FY 2017-18 revenues. Currently, it is unclear if federal income tax cuts will be enacted. If they are not or uncertainty remains, then General Fund revenue projections for this

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

spending trends and could motivate that result. First, PA consumers could be paying down debt. However, recent data from the Federal Reserve Board of New York show that PA per capita consumer debt levels increased (1.3%) during the past nine stagnant. However, the S&P 500 Index has increased by 14.8% since July 2016. Data from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency show that median PA home values increased by 4.0% in 2017 Q1 on a year-over-

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

Analysis. SA4 Personal Income and Employment by Major Component. 2 Daly, Mary et al. “What’s Up with Wage Growth?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Rich, Robert et al. “U.S. Real Wage Growth: Slowing Down With Age.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 1.8% 5.3% -2.2% 3.9% 1.8% 4.0% 2.6% -4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

second quarter compared to the prior year. Transfer receipts increased by 83.8% driven by an increase in state and federal unemployment compensation. Wages and salaries declined in the second quarter for Pennsylvania and the United States -5.7% and -4 recorded stronger job losses compared to the prior month, while all other sectors recorded modest gains. A notable exception is federal government employment, which increased year-over-year (8.9%) due to the temporary hiring of Census workers. However, federal government

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Home Values Grew 10.9% in 2020 Q4 The Federal Housing Finance Agency recently released 2020 Q4 home price index data. Pennsylvania home values grew 10.9% in 2020 Q4 existing homeowners who might benefit from refinancing. Housing Market Highlights Divergence Between Consumer Prices and Asset Prices Since 2012, the Federal Reserve has targeted a 2.0% inflation rate in order to achieve its goal of price stability. This metric, as

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

implement stay-at-home measures to help contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Consumers Spent Roughly Half of Federal Economic Impact Payments The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released a working paper that measured the effects of COVID-19 Economic Impact Payments on consumer

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Social 14.4 11.7 15.9 15.3 Leisure-Hospitality 5.3 9.5 12.3 7.4 State-Federal Govt -2.0 1.4 0.8 -1.2 Local Govt -7.5 -7.5 -3.4 -1.6 All 4.6% -2.2% Note: Represents Economic Profits, which includes the Capital Consumption Adjustment for depreciation. Excludes foreign profits and Federal Reserve Profits. Includes both C and S corporations. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2016 Q4 forecast from IHS

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MER-2015-06.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac- turing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2015-04.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2015-02.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2015-01.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac- turing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Monthly Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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MER-2014-12.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-11.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-10.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-08.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-06.pdf

of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-04.pdf

S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7/ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Reports. 8/ U.S. Department of 4 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ

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MER-2014-01.pdf

of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes‐ simism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY

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jackson ppt.pdf

Investment -4.3 -1.7 7.7 16.9 Business Fixed Investment 4.4 8.7 5.3 5.8 Federal Government 4.5 -1.8 -2.5 -3.5 State & Local Government -1.8 -2.2 -2.4 -0.9 8 Core CPI 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 Refiners’ Acquisition Oil Price ($/barrel) 77 101 98 106 Federal Funds Rate (%) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 10-Year Treasury Yield (%) 3.2 2.8 2.3

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

What happens if PA economy has “normal” growth?  Assumes no recession over next five years. No New State or Federal Policy Changes.  But, the Governor must bring budget into balance.  What about the federal government? Taxes? ACA? “Discretionary” Spending Grows With Inflation.  Need not happen. It is an assumption.  Policymakers control

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of man- ufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

not exceed $3,000. In addition, the length of service awards are not considered compensation for the purposes of the Federal Insurance Contribution Act (FICA). Background Discussion (Cont'd) -7- SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY House Resolution Number 452 directed the Commission to the plan. Survey Findings (Cont'd) 6 Recruitment and Retention in the Volunteer Fire Service: Problems and Solutions, Final Report, Federal Emergency Management Agency, December 1998. -13- FINDINGS Table I displays selected survey findings and illustrates the main provisions and related

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

leaves of absence without pay; intervening and nonintervening military service; service in public education in another state or with the federal government; service in public education in a community college under the Community College Act; service with a -7- county school of absence without pay, intervening or nonintervening military service, service as a public educator in another state or with the federal government, service as a temporary federal employee assigned to a Commonwealth agency, service in a community college under the Community

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

Health Reform (so far) 7 Big Decision #1: Medicaid expansion 8 Medicaid Primer – Pre-ACA • Administered by states within broad federal rules • Financed jointly by states & federal government – FMAP varies by State • PA = 55% in 2012 9 • Financial & Categorical eligibility rules apply – In PA • Children up to

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

the state than would otherwise occur.  To increase industry employment as measured by data published by the federal government. 3 The program has been subsequently amended several times, most recently by Act 43 of 2017. 4 The 60 percent requirement To maintain or increase Pennsylvania’s market share of the industry as measured by data published by the federal government. Administration and Implementation The Department of Community and Economic Development administers the FPTC and reviews applications. 6 The text that follows

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Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

Regional Competitors (2019) Carrybacks Carryforwards State Years Cap Years Cap Pennsylvania 0 $0 20 40% of liability Delaware Conforms to federal treatment Maryland Conforms to federal treatment New Jersey 0 $0 20 Unlimited New York 3 Unlimited 20 Unlimited Ohio Not applicable (no corporate income tax

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

unemployment compensation). States levy CIT on the net income of C corporations. Most states use formulas to apportion federal net income to the state level. For this analysis, the CIT measure also includes revenues from corporate license fees. For Pennsylvania, net category has declined due to the elimination of the state estate tax that results from changes at the federal level. Table 7 displays state and local collections for Pennsylvania by tax source. The amounts are net of any refunds paid. As

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

a transparent platform that projects the impact on the budget and economy while writing legislation. 2) Regular convening with members, federal agencies and support committees Where is the United States Headed? More Debt Penn Wharton Budget Model 3 Debt has a 2030 2035 2040 Percent Change Year Low r High r Penn Wharton Budget Model 20 Percent Change from Current Law Federal Tax Revenues -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Percent

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

the labor force participation rate for both men and women has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. 2 However, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that prime working-age women (age 25 to 55) with children had a larger decline personal income tax payments). Neither the IFO estimate nor the estimate published in the Executive Budget include the most recent federal stimulus (American Rescue Plan). During the hearing, several members also raised questions regarding the revenue proposals contained in the Executive

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Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf

Senator Vulakovich inquired about the treatment of corporate net operating losses (NOLs) in other states as compared to Pennsylvania. Current federal law allows 20 years of NOL carryforwards and 2 years of NOL carrybacks. Thirty states (including Pennsylvania) and the District of Columbia conform to the federal standard of offering 20 years of NOL carryforwards. Twelve states conform to the federal standard of offering 2 years of

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

See Brown et al. “Capturing Rents from Natural Resource Abundance: Private Royalties from U.S. Onshore Oil and Gas Production,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 15-04 (July 2016). 2 Top eight producing counties for 2017. 3 It should analysis assumed no growth in those income sources due to income shifted out of tax year 2017 due to the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Data for other counties support that assumption.  Compute the differential between the actual and

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

7,919 8,154 8,062 8,161 8,375 8,654 8,865 3.9% 2.5% 1.7% Federal Government 4,516 4,568 4,498 4,560 4,582 4,602 4,693 5,030 5,088 5 30.96 32.07 32.26 32.59 33.09 34.07 35.11 3.0% 2.8% 1.8% Federal Government 35.91 36.86 37.70 39.12 39.99 40.55 41.88 44.04 46.62 48

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 10.Feb.2017 2 The widespread 2008-2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets.  Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years.  Spending reductions/restraint for many program areas.  Recession hit pension 21 21-22 Pensions Share of GF Expenditures 10.Feb.2017 10 Levels Off Non-discretionary expenditures are mandated by federal law, constitutionally required or not easily changed.  Includes the cost-to-carry (mandatory spending) and additional expenditures over which

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Revenues and Expenditures 8.Jun.2016 3  The widespread 2008‐2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets. • Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years. • Spending reductions/restraint for many program areas. • Recession hit pension funds, contributing less important over time. Larger share of income not subject to tax. • Age 65+ reports nearly 20% of income on federal tax returns. Non‐taxable income: Social Security, Pensions, IRAs. Revenue Impacts 8.Jun.2016 19 Allocation of Spending by Age

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Rates 12.May.2016 +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income. • Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. • Wage income less important. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security. • Social Security income meant to be “supplemental year 2013. Includes non‐taxable social security, interest and pension income. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Share of Total Income on Federal Tax Return By Income Type and Age Cohort 17 12.May.2016 Large Job Shift to Service Sector Since Recession

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.05.2018 2 Two Estimates of the Federal Tax Cut FFY 2018-19 ($ billions) Joint Committee U Penn Wharton Individuals and Pass Throughs -$188.8 -$168.5 Corporate Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.05.2018 4 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mining -3.8

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

data are preliminary. Other data largely final. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Authority, Zillow. Change in PA Payroll Employment (000s) June 11, 2019 6 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 Mining- Assistance 22.4 26.4 27.2 27.1 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 9.1 4.9 7.8 State-Federal Government 1.1 -0.2 -1.3 1.0 Local Government -2.3 0.5 1.0 -0.7 All

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perez ppt.pdf

remain below pre-recession levels – Officials are concerned about the strength of economic growth – Questions remain about the impact of federal deficit reduction on state budgets – The total state budget gap: $527.7 billion (FY 2008- FY 2013 est.) FY 2012 A number of significant uncertainties loom: – Demands on state budgets – The strength and sustainability of economic recovery – The impact of federal actions on state budgets For More Information www.ncsl.org/fiscal arturo.perez@ncsl.org Top Fiscal Issues for 2012

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. May 24, 2017 16 Change in Real Per Capita Debt: 2003 to 2015 III. Revenue Creates a long-term imbalance.  Sources of funding insufficient to meet needs.  Does not consider any changes at federal level. May 24, 2017 17 FY 16-17 Revenue Growth FY 2016-17 (millions) Dollar Share Growth Total General Fund

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

 DEP: air pollution | DOH: diabetes rate | DCED: unemployment rate  Mainly scale issues | resources too small to move needle Federal published data often differ from state compilations  DOH: Opioid death rate (state much higher due to better data)  2019-20 data are different than other years  Does not include “potential” supplementals ($779 million)  Reflects all requested federal funds authority (only some used) Process much smoother than last year  Longer lead time | agencies see last year’s

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

Pennsylvania Fiscal Update National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) December 13, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Who we are. ◦ Established September 2011; 10 staff, but expanding and long-term budget outlook. ◦ New revenue package: borrowing, transfers and gaming. ◦ FYTD Revenues: hitting estimate through November. Looking forward: federal tax reform, property tax reform and General Fund challenges. Dec.13.2017 5 PA Demographics: Large Retirement Wave Age Cohort

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

care workers with a Bachelor’s degree or less were relatively small when compared to workers with advanced degrees. New Federal Tax Data Reflect Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act The IRS released tax filing statistics for 2018 federal returns filed through July 2019. The total number of returns filed for this period remained relatively stable compared to the

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

Posts $779 Billion Deficit for FFY 2018 On October 15, the U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement showed an official federal deficit for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2018 of $779 billion. The deficit is $113 billion (17.0%) higher than FFY 2017. Total tax

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

recent decline in the size of the labor force and the retirement of baby boomers. The article also discusses the Federal Reserve’s plan of action moving forward based on the report. IRS Releases Preliminary U.S. Income Tax Data for states, income tax revenues came in far below projections for FY 2016-17, leading to large budget defi- cits. New federal income tax data provide insights regarding those unexpected shortfalls. Compared to the prior year, the federal tax data show broad

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

of payments into December and January (quarterly payments for tax year 2017) as taxpayers attempted to maximize the benefits of federal tax law changes. For the fiscal year-to-date, PIT collections are $117 million above estimate. An overage in quarterly measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

through June, due to the acceleration of payments into December and January as taxpayers attempted to maximize the benefits of federal tax law changes. Non-tax revenues were below estimate by $53 million in March. Most of the shortfall was attributed measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

to be weak in March through June due to the acceleration of payments into December and January in response to federal tax law changes. Non-motor sales and use tax (SUT) collections were strong in February after a flat January. Non- measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

g., manufacturing and mining) tend to pay a higher annual wage than many expanding sectors, such as healthcare services. 1 Federal data show that lower-wage workers have realized stronger weekly wage gains than higher-wage workers. 2 Some of those measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

055 $339 Growth 0.7% 0.7% -0.3% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA CONSUMER DEBT OUTPACES REGION The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) publishes quarterly state data on consumer debt. The data span major loan types, such measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

an important economic indicator, has remained relatively low over the past three years, and that outcome has implications for large federal transfers made to Pennsylvania residents. For 2016, the Social Security Administration recently announced that recipients will not receive an annual measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania, more than five million federal tax returns were matched between the two years. The database of matched returns allows the IRS to identify a migrating measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

is imputed rent to current homeowners) and actual conditions in the housing market. For example, the latest data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency show that the home price index increased by 12.5% in 2021 Q1 for the Mid- Atlantic to Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the state economy received a significant boost from the latest round of federal stimulus. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has not released state-level data on personal income, but adjusted

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

Over 70% of Economic Impact Payments Saved or Used to Pay Down Debt The New York Federal Reserve released findings from two pandemic-related surveys. Survey recipients were asked to classify how they spent the first round the prior year, despite the higher legal age to consume tobacco (raised from 18 to 21 in 2019) and new federal restrictions on e-cigarette flavors. Possible reasons for stronger than expected cigarette and tobacco sales include: increased stress, unregulated breaks

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

a large revenue source for airlines. PA Renters Will Owe an Estimated $224 Million in Rent by December 31 The federal eviction moratorium for renters expires on December 31, 2020. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve estimates that by the end of December 1.3 million (4.2%) renter households in the U.S. will

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

Hence, housing and rental price pressures may be delayed. PA Auto Loan Debt Increased Nearly 13% in 2021 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released consumer debt data for 2021 Q2. Pennsylvania auto loan debt grew 12.7% loans, as national auto loan delinquencies remain relatively low. However, delinquencies may rise in the fall with the expiration of federal stimulus programs. Summer Natural Gas Prices at Highest Level Since 2014 As noted in a recent WSJ article, natural gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

Federal Stimulus Drives Record Pennsylvania Lottery Sales Through the week ending March 30, fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) lottery game sales the same period in FY 2019-20. Much of the growth in lottery game sales is likely explained by the federal stimulus distributed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased households’ disposable income. The IFO estimates that $50.7

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MER-2013-11.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf

published a revision. The revised report incorporates (1) a modest reduction in the projected cost savings, (2) an increase in federal funds derived from the gross receipts tax mechanism and (3) the reformatting of tables to provide separate totals with and without additional federal funds associated with the gross receipts tax. The final change reflects the uncertainty regarding those additional federal funds. Please refer

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Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf

fall. For 2021 Q1, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an received. Based on the latest data for May 2021, Pennsylvania payroll job creation continues to stagnate, despite the transfer of federal funds. The year-over-year change in payroll jobs is similar for the latest three months of data at roughly

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

Impact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market fall. For 2021 Q1, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an

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Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf

for a total of $1.58 billion. On average, UC claimants received $515 (PUA) to $650 (traditional) per week. The federal programs expire in 7 weeks and the average PUA recipient may still claim up to $3,600 through the end 70 (traditional) or $19.60 (PUA) per hour if the tax-free status of UC benefits is included (excludes any federal income tax). If employed 15 hours per week, then the equivalent wage rate doubles. The IFO projects that many traditional

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

2018, December 2018) Special Funds Receipts and Disbursements (February 2018) Owner Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder (March 2018) Federal Tax Code Conformity Analysis (April 2018) Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction (April 2018) Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update PA - Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Markit, Federal Housing Finance Agency. Note: U.S. data for 2019 are forecasts from IHS Markit. PA data for 2019 are forecasts

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IFO ppt.pdf

billion • Since Recession start: Nat’l MA enrollment increased by 8.8 million; Pa MA enrollment increased 165k • Child enrollment • Federal policy changes January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Public Welfare Average Annual Growth Rates by 9,228 inmates by year end 2010 • Collectively, US state prisons saw the biggest decrease of ~11k inmates, while federal prisons saw a slight increase • During CY 2010, US prison releases exceeded prison admissions January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

IFO believes the corporate net income tax gains are due to (1) more profit shifting than originally estimated (due to federal tax law changes), (2) higher pre-tax profits than assumed and (3) an unexpected pull-forward of settlement payments for old tax years to benefit from the higher federal deduction of state taxes at the 35% rate (tax year 2017) versus the lower 21% rate (tax year 2018). If

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines two federal agencies.  Congressional Budget Office.  Annual budget projections.  Special studies on revenues or expenditures.  Joint Committee on Summer Slowdown?  European debt crisis continues to simmer.  Weak employment reports for May and June.  Uncertainty over federal tax and spending policy.  Consumer confidence declining. 10.Jul.2012 11 2012 GPNP Conference 6.0 7.0 8

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

and do not include self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NY Federal Reserve Board, Zillow and U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey. Recent Contraction of PA Payroll Jobs August 19, 2020 30 -22 -26.1 -22.5 -19.6 Couriers and Messengers 1 2 4 3.7% 6.7% 11.8% Federal Government 2 2 2 2.5 2.1 1.9 Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. June data are preliminary

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

3.1% 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 14.7% n.a. Note: Corporate profits exclude foreign profits and the Federal Reserve, but includes S corporations. The S&P 500 Index growth rate is based on quarterly or annual average levels on data through third quarter. Figures in parentheses represent share of total debt in 2016 Q3. Source: Consumer debt from Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Personal consumption expenditures from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (6) Inflation in both the

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

3.1% 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 14.7% n.a. Note: Corporate profits exclude foreign profits and the Federal Reserve, but includes S corporations. The S&P 500 Index growth rate is based on quarterly or annual average levels on data through third quarter. Figures in parentheses represent share of total debt in 2016 Q3. Source: Consumer debt from Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Personal consumption expenditures from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (6) Inflation in both the

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

for a stand-alone DC benefit plan. This plan would not include a DB component, and is similar to the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan or 401(k) plans. New school employees and most new state employees would contribute 7 Employees would have the op- tion to invest more of their annual salary into the DC plan, up to the federal maximum. Vesting Period New members of the Systems would become vested in the DB component of the two hybrid plans

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

6.5 Healthcare-Social Service 26.4 27.2 20.5 Leisure-Hospitality 9.1 4.9 6.1 State-Federal Gov’t -0.5 -1.0 2.9 Local Gov’t 0.7 0.7 0.2 All Other Sectors not seasonally adjusted. Median price seasonally adjusted. Source: Home sales and median home price from Zillow. House Price Index from Federal Housing Finance Agency. Debt data from New York Federal Reserve Board. Demographic Trends Cause Tight Labor Market January 28, 2020

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average Gas Price Central Atlantic (PA, NY, NJ Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

go financing by retirement systems historically, and the practice is not acceptable for private sector pension plans regulated by the federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). The most appropriate funding method for a postretirement adjustment is actuarial funding. In general of living factors over an extended period of retirement. Because welfare postretirement adjustments either augment or replace other state and federal public assistance programs, their purpose has not generally been included among the commonly accepted goals of public employee retirement systems

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Pensions

24 (Public School Employees' Retirement Code) to bring the Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) into compliance with the following Federal laws: 1) the Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008 ("HEART Act"); 2) the Uniformed Services Employment and 798, Printer's Number 818). Signed into law on July 1, 2013, Act 33 further brought PSERS into compliance with Federal law by amending the Public School Code of 1949, to entitle members of the System who are granted leave for

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Links

Budget • Office of the Governor State Budget News • Pew Center for States • Rockefeller Institute of Government • Governing: States and Localities • Federation of Tax Administrators • National Conference of State Legislatures • National Association of State Budget Officers Federal Government • Board of Governors, Federal Reserve • Congressional Budget Office • Department of Treasury • Government Accountability Office • Internal Revenue Service • Joint Committee

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Testimony-02-2020.pdf

2019 are preliminary and will be revised. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve Board of New York. Forecasts by IFO. Author: Matthew Knittel Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2020-02-18 13:27:11

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

contains the tax credit review for the Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on state and federal charitable contribution and neighborhood assistance incentives, held discussions with stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit to Pennsylvania’s NAP Tax Credit. State programs that were based on the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit or other federal programs were excluded. Table 3.1 displays key parameters for similar state tax credits. Most were enacted prior to 2000

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

require private employers to provide separate paid leave to employees who donate an organ or bone marrow. 13 Federal employees are entitled to seven days of paid leave for a bone marrow donation and thirty days of paid leave for a and other out- of-pocket costs for those who donate through their paired kidney exchange program. 15 The federally- funded National Living Donor Assistance Center provides income-based financial assistance for living kid- ney, liver, lung or intestine donors. However, this

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

net operating loss deduction will offset some of the gains from modestly higher corporate profits. In addition, the unwinding of federal 100 percent bonus depreciation will provide less revenue for FY14- 15 than it did for FY13-14. Sales and Use stronger growth in FY14-15 because these revenues were suppressed in FY13-14 due to a behavioral response related to federal tax law changes. Nontax revenues – The projection includes $50 million from the slot machine license fee for a new Category

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REU-2019-12.pdf

payments (-$53.2 million). Prior to the implementation of the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions under the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), taxpayers had an incentive to pay their last PIT quarterly payment for the current growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

Counties with lower shares of net earnings are more likely to be older counties that receive relatively more income from federal programs such as Social Security and Medicaid. Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Per Capita Personal Income Growth Figures 2 and value was replaced with an interpolation using the 2015 and 2017 data points. The adjusted data point is consistent with federal and state income tax return data trends for the county. This adjustment is also reflected in the statewide growth rate

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

On March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was enacted as part of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. 1 The program made forgivable loans available to small businesses and other to provide for non-taxable treatment. 11 For Pennsylvania personal income tax, the tax base does not conform to the federal tax base, but forgiven loans would be treated as taxable income under current law. To qualify for loan forgiveness, the

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

Department of Labor. +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income o Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security o Social Security income meant to be “supplemental.” o What impact 1 Note: Includes non-taxable social security, interest and pension income. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Share of Total Income on Federal Tax Return By Income Type and Age Cohort Large Job Shift to Service Sector Since Recession o Healthcare, Professional and

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

age is age 20 to 64. Adult population is age 20 or older. Source: IFO computations based on state and federal tax data. August.08.2018 10 Components of PA Population Change 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2010 2010 to 2020 State GDP 3.2% 3.3% Sources: Dept. of Comm. and Economic Development, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Housing Finance Agency. August.08.2018 21 Earned Income Tax: Avg. Growth Rates Fiscal Year Ending 2006-11 2011-16

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

1 Expenditures by Fund General Fund $21.5 $21.6 $21.6 $21.7 $21.6 $21.9 Federal Funds 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Total 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.7 18 Expenditures by Fund General Fund $2.58 $2.61 $2.70 $2.74 $2.68 $2.98 Federal Funds 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.20 Total 2.75 2.61 2.70 2.74

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

2 Act 44 of 2007 requires the PTC to make annual payments of $900 million to PennDOT, subject to certain federal approvals and other conditions. However, the federal government disallowed tolling on I-80, and the mandated annual payment declined to $450 million pursuant to a provision of

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Existing Home Prices Increase by 5.0% in 2019 Q1 On May 28, the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) released the housing price index for 2019 Q1. For Pennsylvania, the first quarter non-seasonally adjusted home price growth was 5.1% year-over-year. Opioid Crisis Impacts PA Productivity and Healthcare On June 4, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a brief that examines the opioid crisis using data from the Third District, which includes

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

11.0%. Excluding energy, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased by 1.9% from the prior year. - April 2019- National News Federal Income Tax Refunds Remain Below Prior Year On a weekly basis, the IRS releases the latest data regarding federal income tax refunds processed and paid. Through April 12, total IRS refunds processed were down 1.9% compared to the

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

the average wage paid increased by 2.9%. PA Consumer Debt Increases Moderately in 2018 Q1 On May 17, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for the first quarter of 2018. On a year-over-year and insurers) are excluded, then the profits growth rate increases to 5.8%. (See Table 6.16D.) Due to the federal corporate income tax cut, after-tax profits re- tained by corporations increased by 35.8% in the first quarter on

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

2018 - National News Latest Estimate for 2018 Q2 U.S. Real GDP Growth is 4.5% On July 18, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its final forecast of GDPNow for 2018 Q2. The forecast projects the real growth rate by businesses. U.S. Capital Gains Surged in Tax Year 2017 On June 26, the IRS released preliminary data for federal income tax returns filed for tax year 2017. The data show that capital gains increased by 41.4% across all

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

flat if tax law changes excluded.  FY 2017-18: revenue forecast holding up so far.  But forecast assumes federal tax cut.  Uncertainty could impact collections (again).  Healthcare and Pensions drive spending growth.  SERS employer contribution rate growth rate Moving Forward  Will FY 2017-18 deficit carry forward to future?  Permanent vs. temporary revenues.  Federal tax cut should boost state revenues.  Current revenue sources have limited upside.  Sales tax will continue to lag

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax 3-month growth rate has trended downward since July 2018, when many analysts be- lieve the economic impact from the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act peaked. The 12-month growth rate re- mains strong, but should revert to historical levels

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

The transfer was included in the updated official estimate per Act 44, but was blocked as a result of a federal court ruling. Revenue collections for the year were $178 million (-0.5 percent) short of the IFO’s official revenue mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

part of that shortfall is likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the significant federal corporate rate reduction in December 2017. For the fiscal year, CNIT revenues are $167 million below estimate, driven by final mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The graphs

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2016-12.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2016-11.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2016-08.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2016-06.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2016-05.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2016-04.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2016-02.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2016-01.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2015-11.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

Hits: 2

MTR-2015-07.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The annual growth rate in megawatt-hours of electricity sold to industrial customers. Source

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MRU_2021_04.pdf

extension of the annual payment due date from April 15 to May 17 to coincide with the change in the federal due date for tax year 2020 returns. Withholding payments fell below estimate (-$13.2 million, -1.5%) for the month 8 million, 12.9%) and motor vehicle collections (+$37.1 million, 25.3%). SUT collections in April were bolstered by federal stimulus payments that began arriving in March as a result of the American Rescue Plan Act. FYTD SUT collections of

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MRU-2020-10.pdf

at a year- over-year rate through October of 5.7 percent. FYTD growth is likely driven by: (1) substantial federal transfer payments distributed in 2020 Q2 and Q3, (2) a significant increase in home refinancings that likely lowered household monthly home furnishings, electronics and other taxable household goods. SUT growth is expected to slow in the coming months, with less federal support flowing to households in 2020 Q4. October PIT collections were $1,024.5 million and $86.9 million (9

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

This provision is projected to reduce FY 2020-21 PIT withholding revenues by $12.3 million. Other Miscellaneous Federal Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Funds (Act 24) The act provides that federal money from the Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund in excess of the amount appropriated in 2021 shall be transferred to the General

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

documentation. Therefore, these provisions are not projected to reduce FY 2019-20 collections. Personal Income Tax Conformity with Federal Opportunity Zones (Act 13) The act provides that “net gains”, “net losses” and “dividends” for purposes of the Pennsylvania personal income tax PIT) shall not include gains, income or losses which are excluded from tax under the provisions of the Federal Opportunity Zones Program. The provisions apply to tax years beginning after December 31, 2019 and are effective June 28, 2019. Prior Law

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

slated to be released at the end of June. Philadelphia Fed Releases Weekly Business Outlook Survey on COVID-19 The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reports on a weekly survey of over 200 businesses in the Third District (Eastern PA-NJ- growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

3%). Additional data from the Pulse Survey indicate that 24.3% of Pennsylvanians spent at least a portion of the federal stimulus payment on their mortgage, while 20.9% of recipients nationwide spent the stimulus payment on their mortgage. Over 20 growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U

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Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf

5 In this example, that amount is treated as a "recaptured" gain under IRC Section 1245 and subject to ordinary federal income tax rates , as opposed to capital g ains tax rates. 6 This exam p le is from "Recent Trends David Joulfaian and Romeo Mookerje , Office of Tax Analysis, U.S. Department of Treasury ( 2014 ) . 7 For example , see the Federation of Exchange Accommodators at htt p s://www. I 03 l .or2/. 8 See supra note 6. 4 CreationDate: 2017-

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Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf

a total of roughly $1.7 billion. On average, UC claimants received $515 (PUA) to $650 (traditional) per week. The federal programs are scheduled to expire in two weeks. In last month’s update, the IFO speculated that many traditional UC York (-8.5%), Ohio (-4.4%) and the U.S. (-2.8%). Among the border states, only Ohio ended extra federal weekly bonus benefits early (end of June). Although Ohio is performing better than the peer states listed, it is unclear

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

Jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency, PA Lottery, PA Department of Environmental Protection. Annual PA Employment Growth (000s) May 15, 2019 3 2016 Service 22.4 26.4 27.2 27.1 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 9.1 4.9 7.8 State-Federal Government 1.0 -0.2 -1.3 1.0 Local Government -2.2 0.5 1.0 -0.7 All

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

13.8 33.4 Notes: ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENTS 1 1 Bargaining Units included are the following: American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), Association of Liquor Enforcement Officers (ALES), Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA), Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP), Independent State Stores Union (ISSU), Office & Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU) Healthcare Pennsylvania

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2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf

Date End Date IFO Analysis FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Total AFSCME American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 8/12/2019 $71.3 $159.4 $254 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 2/26/2020 1.1 2.3 4.3 5.5 13.3 FOSCEP Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 10/8/2019 1.1 2.3 3

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

collected by the board pursuant to this section. The moneys in thisfund shall be used to supplement the Federal orState funds appropriated/orthe improvementofadultprobation services. (g) For purposes of this section, the term “board” shall refer to and mean the PennsylvaniaBoard strikes over benefits than over wages. During the collective bargaining process in 1988, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), the largest union representing Commonwealth employees, reached the initial agreement with the Commonwealth that ultimately resulted in the

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WC-2019-UFCW.pdf

Benefits for the relevant fiscal year multiplied by the 3 percent general pay increase (GPI). Motor Other General License State Federal All Fund Fund Funds 1/ Funds Funds FY 2019-20 General Pay and Step Increase $0.0 $0.0 $2

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WC-2019-SEIU.pdf

Benefits for the relevant fiscal year multiplied by the 3 percent general pay increase (GPI). Motor Other General License State Federal All Fund Fund Funds 1/ Funds Funds FY 2019-20 General Pay and Step Increase $10.1 $0.0 $1

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WC-2019-AFSCME.pdf

Benefits for the relevant fiscal year multiplied by the 3 percent general pay increase (GPI). Motor Other General License State Federal All Fund Fund Funds 1/ Funds Funds FY 2019-20 General Pay and Step Increase $23.3 $20.7 $16

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Wage_Contracts_PLEA.pdf

Union Year Increase General Fund Motor License Fund Other State Funds 1/ Federal Funds Total PLEA 2016-17 General Pay or Step - - 0.2 - 0.2 Bargaining Healthcare Contribution - - - - - Unit 36 Total - - 0

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

the purpose of computing real estate tax rates, the analysis excludes: Building-level administrative costs. The impact of changes in federal funds. Costs related to the York County School of Technology. Costs related to the Lincoln Intermediate Unit. 16.Dec.2014

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

the special funds section of the Governor's Executive Budget. Available Actual Difference (Actual less Available) 1 State General Fund Federal Funds Other State Funds Bond Funds Total Spend Alabama $8,295 $9,885 $8,005 $460 $26,645 Alaska 4

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

Individual Exemptions: Certain jurisdictions exempt low-income individuals from bag fees. Eligible indi- viduals include those participating in federal or state food assistance programs (including the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)). Vendors Impacted

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REU-2020-02.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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REU-2020-01.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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REU-2019-11.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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REU-2019-10.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

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RB-2016-02.pdf

those in which local government serves an administrative role. The report excludes programs that are solely funded by local or federal governments. The report classi Ðies economic development incentives (may be called incentives or programs, for short) into three categories: (1

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

and o have cultural, historic, recreational or civic significance.  Grants must be eligible for tax-exempt bond funding under federal law.  Total cost of the project must be at least $1,000,000.  At least 50 percent of

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

tax chapter of the Tax Reform Code of 1971 is also such a crime as is a criminal offense under federal law substantially the same as one of these listed crimes. Restitution for Monetary Loss. In any case where a public

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

Sources $2,347 7.8% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $533 1.8% State (excludes Act 1) $10,962 36.2% Federal $897 3.0% Other (debt related) $439 1.4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

Sources $2,126 7.7% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $530 1.9% State (exclude Act 1) $9,492 34.4% Federal $815 3.0% Other (debt related) $855 3.1% Total $27,578 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

35.1% Other Local $2,224 7.2% Earned Income $1,563 5.1% Act 1 Allocations $532 1.7% Federal $843 2.7% Other (debt related) $1,759 5.7% Total $30,752 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

base erosion will constrain revenue growth. There are important downside risks associated with global economic weakness and the uncertainties of federal tax policy.  The number of working-aged residents between ages 20 and 64 will decline by one percent between

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

Service Sectors. • Healthy PA to add 600,000 new enrollees. • Some uncertainty over the ACA. Continued Contraction for Government Sector. • Federal government sheds Postal Service jobs. • Local gov’t contracts due to shrinking pupil base and pensions. Exception: Labor Force Participation

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

4,152 -4,435 -4,580 -4,624 Total Revenues 4,628 3,822 4,041 4,599 5,159 Federal Offsets $236 -$91 -$170 -$200 -$201 Non-Residents 567 931 980 1,230 1,453 PA Residents 3,826 2

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

Sources $2,185 7.7% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $531 1.9% State (excludes Act 1) $9,944 34.9% Federal $775 2.7% Other (debt related) $934 3.3% Total $28,494 100.0% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Source

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

14.5 Leisure‐Hospitality 5.3 9.5 14.7 Local Gov’t ‐7.5 ‐7.5 ‐4.0 State‐Federal Gov’t ‐2.0 1.4 1.0 All Other 4.1 4.6 8.7 Total 47.6 48

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

g., gaming expansion). Policymakers should consider recession scenarios.  Surveys: recession more likely than not next three years.  Will federal government be able/willing to assist states? November 19, 2018 14 Author: Lesley Rompalo Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2018-11-19

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

information is one of many factors that play a role in state budget decisions (e.g., revenue availability, court decisions, federal funding impacts, formula requirements, constituent pressures). 15 October 15, 2018 16 October 15, 2018 Presentation to be posted on the

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Outlook for Regional Manufacturing Unclear The New York Federal Reserve released its March 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Responses gath- ered between March 2 and 10 reveal New York

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

firms that expand to new locations. State Leading Index Declines in Nine States Including Pennsylvania On December 31, 2019 the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its State Leading Indexes, a six-month forecast of its State Coincident Indexes for November

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

crease from 26% to 34% by 2038, while the homeownership rate is anticipated to decline. Americans Pay about 86% of Federal Taxes Owed On September 26, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released new estimates on taxpayer compliance. It report- ed an

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

Q1 will be released at the end of July. Consumer Debt Increases Modestly in 2019 Q1 On May 14, the Federal Reserve Board of New York released consumer debt data for 2019 Q1. The data show the total per capita debt

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

erage refund of $3,008 has increased (0.1%). For tax year 2016, PA filers received $14.1 billion of federal tax re- funds. Those refunds typically provide a boost to consumer spending and sales tax revenues in the spring. IFO

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

IFO will release an updated projection of 2019 collections in late January. Metro Unemployment Rates A recent brief by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia compares unemployment rates in metropolitan sta- tistical areas (MSAs) across the past three business cycles and

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Student Loan Debt Continues to Climb in 2018 Q3 On November 16, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylva- nia, the data show that per

Hits: 1

Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

CY 2018 (remitted April 2019) in late January 2019. Home Price Growth Slows in 2018 Q3 On November 27, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released purchase-only index data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylvania, seasonally adjusted data show that third

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

years and then level off thereafter. The CBO also revised its projection for real GDP to reflect recent changes in federal tax policy. (Full Report) Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-08.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Sales and Use Tax

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-06.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The three-

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-05.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-04.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The three-

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-03.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-02.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2019-01.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The graphs

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-12.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The graphs

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-11.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-10.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-09.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes  The

Hits: 1

MTR-2018-07.pdf

mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Realty Transfer Tax Personal Income Tax — Withholding Technical Notes The graphs

Hits: 1

MTR-2016-09.pdf

measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2016 - MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT SELECT GENERAL FUND TAX REVENUES - ANNUAL GROWTH RATES Sales

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MRU_2021_05.pdf

to the annual payment due date extension from April 15 to May 17 to coincide with the change in the federal due date for tax year (TY) 2020 returns. In addition, quarterly (+$76.8 million, 307.1%) and withholding (+$15.6

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

Other tobacco products revenues are largely performing as expected for the year, after adjusting for the impact of the new federal age restriction on purchases (effective December 2019). Liquor tax collections displayed some weakness (-$2.6 million) for the month, possibly

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

material portion of the gain is likely related to the taxable status of forgiven Paycheck Protection Program loans, and recent federal legislation makes those loans non-taxable. FYTD CNIT collections continue to outperform the forecast ($595.4 million, 38.6 percent

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

were likely bolstered by pent-up demand from COVID-19 business closures earlier this year and the continued effect of federal economic impact payments and enhanced unemployment compensation benefits. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for July were $2.31 billion, an

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

early days of the FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 4 pandemic. The special funds were later reimbursed from federal Coronavirus Relief Fund monies. The $50 million will now be transferred from those special funds to the General Fund for

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. CreationDate: 2020-12-16 04:13:43 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2020-12-16 04:14

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of monthly traffic counts based on entry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

growth rate of wages and salaries paid to all payroll employees. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. CreationDate: 2020-04-22 17:22:19 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2020-04-22 17:46

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

to a decline in corporate profits and weak consumer spending. Income shifting from 2016 to 2017 in anticipation of lower federal tax rates may have contributed to the weak collections.” FY 2017-18 unrestricted General Fund revenues are projected to be

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

86 -36 -38 -32.8 -13.4 -14.5 All Government -17 -7 -32 -2.3 -1.0 -4.4 Federal 2 10 1 2.5 9.9 1.2 State 1 -3 -9 0.6 -2.0 -5.8 Local

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

were higher than normal because some taxpayers received dividends or realized capital gains in 2012 instead of 2013 to avoid federal tax increases. Depending on the performance of the Pennsylvania economy in the first six months of 2014, the revisions could

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

mortgages completed in PA. Since 2013, there have been 8,549 reverse mortgages completed. Source: "The Graying of American Debt," Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Fewer PA Seniors Own Home Outright Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 14 Share of

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House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf

894 3,876 5.8 10.2 Note: Dollars in millions. Excludes any funds from non-General Fund sources, including federal COVID-19 relief funds. FYE 2020 General Fund revenues increased by approximately $2.0 billion due to revenue delays resulting

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

marijuana-related ED visits from 2015 to 2018 (16.7 per 1,000 ED visits). A 2020 brief by the federal-state Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project found that the national average cost per ED visit was $530 in 2017. Poison

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic and Budget Outlook, IFO (Nov. 2019), Zillow, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. CreationDate: 2019-12-02 19:52:52 Creator: Microsoft® Excel® 2016 ModDate: 2019-12-02

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

Sources $2,347 7.8% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $533 1.8% State (excludes Act 1) $10,962 36.2% Federal $897 3.0% Other (debt related) $439 1.4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

County from 2000 to 2010 (4.5 percent per annum) is due to the construction of a large, federal prison that began operations in late 2004. Regional and National Population Trends | Page 14 Regional and National Population Trends | Page 15 Regional

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

39 (July 2017). The income reported to the ACS also excludes capital gains. For tax year 2017, Pennsylvania taxpayers reporting federal adjusted gross income that exceeded $250,000 reported roughly three- quarters of total capital gains for tax year 2017, and

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

chance of a shortfall of 1 standard deviation or larger in a single year, under plausible assumptions. - Invested assets from Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. - Taxes from Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.3. - Taxes and

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