Your search for five returned 346 results.

five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.   11/15/2023
2023 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 in November 2023. 10/19/2023
Summary of Tax Credit Reviews New IFO report highlights findings from the 20 tax credit reviews published during the first five-year evaluation cycle (2019 to 2023). 10/10/2023
Economic and Budget Outlook Presentation The IFO presented results from its five-year outlook report published in November 2022. 01/24/2023
Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit Report. 01/05/2023
Manufacturing Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Manufacturing Tax Credit Report. 01/05/2023
Executive Offices Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Executive Offices. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023.    01/05/2023
Pennsylvania Insurance Department Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023.  The report was reposted on January 18, 2023 to correct a single year of data on page 14.   01/05/2023
Department of Revenue Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Revenue. Approved by the PBB Board on January 10, 2023.  01/05/2023
Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Drug and Alcohol. Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023.  01/05/2023
Department of Conservation and Natural Resources Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023.  01/05/2023
Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit Report. The report was amended on February 17, 2023 to include updates to Table 3.1 on page 14. Following publication of the RJITC report, the IFO became aware of a data discrepancy contained within a referenced study. As a result, the RJITC report was updated to exclude references to the “Evaluation of Alabama’s Entertainment Industry Incentive Program and New Markets Development Program” on February 23, 2023. 01/05/2023
Waterfront Development Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Waterfront Development Tax Credit Report. 01/05/2023
five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2022
2022 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28. 10/05/2022
Department of Human Services - Part 3 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3).  Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022.   The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10.    05/04/2022
Department of Education Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education. Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16. The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022. The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022.  04/27/2022
Department of Aging Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging. Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1.  04/26/2022
Senate Budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to two questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to an update of the IFO’s five-year projections for revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget and an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors. 03/21/2022
Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit Report. 01/20/2022
Brewers' Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Brewers’ Tax Credit Report. 01/20/2022
Educational Tax Credits Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Educational Tax Credits Report. 01/20/2022
Department of Agriculture Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture. Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022.   The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21.   01/20/2022
Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commision. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.   01/20/2022
Department of Labor and Industry Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Labor and Industry. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.   01/20/2022
Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit Report. 01/20/2022
Economic Outlook and Property Tax Update Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook and School District Property Tax Forecast. 11/16/2021
five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2021
2021 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27. 11/15/2021
Department of Military and Veterans Affairs Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. 09/24/2021
Department of Human Services - Part 2 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 2). 09/24/2021
Department of Transportation Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Transportation. 09/24/2021
Pennsylvania State Police Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania State Police. 09/24/2021
Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Report. 09/24/2021
County Income Patterns This research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 08/10/2021
Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit Report. IFO Letter to the SCC 04/23/2021
Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit Report. 04/23/2021
Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit Report. 04/23/2021
Video Game Production Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Video Game Production Tax Credit Report. 04/23/2021
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. 02/23/2021
five Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 01/21/2021
Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 09/08/2020
Department of Human Services - Part 1 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-Based Budget Board. 01/21/2020
Department of Community and Economic Development Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Community and Economic Development. 01/21/2020
Research and Development Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Research and Development Tax Credit Report. 01/21/2020
Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Report. 01/21/2020
Department of Health Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Health. 01/20/2020
Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. 01/16/2020
Department of State Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State. 01/16/2020
Department of Environmental Protection Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Environmental Protection. 01/16/2020
Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit Report. 01/16/2020
Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit Report. 01/16/2020
five YEAR ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release. 11/14/2019
five Year Economic and Budget Outlook Announcement: The IFO will present its five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The Tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on Pennsylvania's tax and business climate. 11/06/2019
Economic & Budget Outlook Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 03/01/2019
Film Production Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Film Production Tax Credit Report. 01/18/2019
New Jobs Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the New Jobs Tax Credit Report. 01/18/2019
Historic Preservation Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Historic Preservation Tax Credit Report. 01/18/2019
Performance-Based Budget Reviews Click on the hyperlink above to access the five performance-based budget reviews and presentations. 01/18/2019
five YEAR ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.   11/15/2018
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past five budget cycles. 12/22/2017
five Year Economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share 11/16/2017
An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform Throughout May, Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan will make five presentations on the potential implications of school district property tax reform. The events are sponsored by the Pennsylvania Economy League and will take place at the various locations listed below. Click the following links for additional details: READING                   Thursday May 4th 7:30-9:00am WILLIAMSPORT       Friday May 5th 12:00-1:30pm YORK                         Thursday May 11th 12:00-1:30pm WILKES-BARRE       Friday May 12th 12:00-1:30pm LEHIGH VALLEY      Friday May 19th 12:00-1:30pm 05/04/2017
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 02/10/2017
five Year Economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk 11/15/2016
five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21 This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (Updated January 2016) Presentation 01/27/2016
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf Class T-H service, the following shall apply: (i) The highest average compensation received as an active member during any five nonoverlapping periods of 2016/90MSP/SB1071A10803 - 5 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 or the calculation shall be made in accordance with the following: (A) If the employee was not a member for five periods, the total compensation received as an active member annualized in the case of part-time service divided by the Hits: 50
index.cfm 5.3%). This report examines the factors that drive that outcome and provides projections through FY 28-29. ... (Full Report) Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook Revenue Estimates November 15, 2023 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook . Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. ... (Full Report) PLEA Wage Contract Hits: 28
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf known as the Public Employee Retirement Commission Act (43 P.S. §§ 1401-1411). The Commission is composed of nine members, five of whom are appointed by the Governor with the advice and consent of the Senate and four of whom are prepared by an approved actuary must be filed with the Commission every four years. The experience investigation must cover a five- year period. The first experience investigation report, applica- ble to the five years ending with the 1985 plan year, was Hits: 23
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The registration and messenger programs. However, the department began to issue REAL IDs in FY 2018-19 and added staff and five new driver license centers to address the increased workload. Data reveal that the share of customers served in under 30 Hits: 21
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that Executive Summary This report discusses economic and demographic trends that will impact the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition during the next five fiscal years. Highlights and conclusions are as follows: Economic Trends The economic forecast projects moderate growth. In particular: • Real growth Hits: 20
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications are sold or transferred for an average of 92 cents for each dollar award. An average commission of five percent of the tax credit sale is typically paid to a broker or facilitator.  The local KIZ coordinator plays a key Hits: 19
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and Jobs Creation tax credits Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. 2 For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and Jobs Creation Tax Hits: 19
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The district current expenditures/student and average share of standardized tests that were scored as proficient or above. 1 There were five suburban school districts that fall outside of this figure and are excluded. These five dots would all be red and Hits: 19
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and of the annual increase in payroll and the firm must maintain the new jobs/increased payroll for a minimum of five years. The Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) may award up to $4 million in tax credits annually. In Hits: 18
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Hits: 16
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it does not assume that a recession occurs over the five-year budget win- dow. In this manner, the economic forecast represents a “best case” scenario. The report designates FY 2019-20 as Hits: 16
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: The Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband equal to the sum of (1) the employee compensation paid during the leave of absence (not to exceed five days), (2) the cost of any temporary replacement help and (3) any qualified miscellaneous expenses incurred in connection with the leave. The Hits: 15
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf caused significant risk if those benefit improvements had been applied only to future service. Instead, that statute granted a twenty-five percent increase in the annual pension accrual rate going back throughout each active employee’s entire career. (Even greater increases the unfunded liability and amortized after enactment. Beginning in 1968, these cost-of-living adjustments were authorized every four or five years on average, with the amounts generally determined using a formula based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index Hits: 15
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Hits: 14
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and Jobs Creation Tax Credits and increased, PHMC or DCED should track specific performance metrics for the next evaluation that will occur in five years. 1 Article XVII-H of the Tax Reform Code of 1971 (P.L. 6, No. 2), as amended. General Findings and Hits: 14
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf Introduction Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review the various Pennsylvania state tax credits every five years. 1 The IFO must submit all tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget (PBB) Board for approval and or jurisdictions. In January 2023, the PBB Board approved the last of the tax credit reviews required during the initial five- year evaluation period. This report summarizes highlights from all 20 of the initial reports. Please note: ▪ The information contained in Hits: 13
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf the attainment of normal retirement age (age 60 for most members of the State Employees' Retirement System) with at least five years of service; any age with 25 years of service; or disability retirement. The service requirements for State-paid benefits at normal retirement age have gradually increased from five years, to ten years, to the current fifteen years, and will increase to twenty years in 2008. All disability retirees Hits: 13
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications providers that invest in qualified broadband equipment placed into service in Pennsylvania. 1 The credit is equal to five percent of the purchase price of the qualified equipment placed in service for tax years beginning after December 31, 2013 and ending Hits: 12
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it assumes that a recession does not occur over the five-year budget win- dow. Therefore, the economic forecast likely represents an optimistic scenario. The report designates FY 2023-24 as Hits: 12
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Educational, Coal Refuse En- ergy and Reclamation 3 Introduction Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five-year period. 1 For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Educational, Coal Refuse En- ergy and Hits: 11
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and Jobs Creation tax credits for the productions can be imported. While advocates note that tax credits can leverage up to four to five times that amount in new spending, critics believe the tax credit does little to promote economic growth because a large portion of Hits: 11
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The monthly by the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which rates each facility between one (lowest) and five (best) stars. Each facility receives overall, health inspection, staffing and quality of resident care measures (QM) ratings. 3 ▪ DMVA surveys Hits: 11
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf retired members of the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) every four or five years beginning in 1968. Method of Implementation Ad Hoc - All of the prior COLAs were provided on an ad hoc benefit, expressed as a percentage of the original benefit, the following table demonstrates the long term impact of an annual five percent postretirement adjustment using simple and compound methodology. TABLE I PROGRESSION OF ORIGINAL BENEFIT RESULTING FROM SIMPLE AND COMPOUND COST- Hits: 11
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Manufacturing, Resource Manufac- turing, Rural Jobs and 2021-22), the total projected costs for all WDTC projects were $103.4 million. These costs represent 14 projects from five WDTC organizations.  Across fiscal years, most WDTC contributions fund urban development and enhanced public access to waterfront areas.  Hits: 10
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and fund, the investor (1) receives an equity interest in the fund or a debt instrument with a minimum of a five-year maturity and (2) qualifies for a tax credit equal to 100% of the credit-eligible investment. The contribution made Hits: 10
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Hits: 10
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. 1 For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, Organ Hits: 10
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The damage that occur on Commonwealth roadways as a result of motor vehicle crashes. ▪ Reduce crash-related injuries and fatalities by five percent over the next three years; reduce DUI- related crashes by five percent over the next three years; and improve Hits: 10
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The the overall operation of the agency. Notable metrics that policymakers should monitor closely include the following: In measurement year 2019, five out of 12 quality measures included in the department’s pay for performance (P4P) initiative met or exceeded specific targets Hits: 10
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf 62. Final Average Salary The final average salary for new members would be equal to the average compensation of the five highest non-overlapping periods of twelve consecutive months for PSERS, and the five high- est calendar years for SERS. For SERS, the amount of voluntary overtime pay included for new hazardous duty members Hits: 10
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Hits: 9
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf mils. 3 Table reflects specifications for Honolulu, the most populous area within the state. Regulations vary between all five counties that make up the de facto statewide ban. The initial mil requirement in 2012 was 2.25; the law was updated demand, while general merchandise and foodservice stores account for approximately 30 and 20 percent, respectively. Over the next five years, the national retail bag market is projected to expand by 5 percent, but LWPB demand is projected to contract. 15 The Hits: 9
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget and the corresponding impact on General Fund revenues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates, as well as the IFO, the proposal reduces revenue by $9 million for FY 2020-21. By the end of the five-year window, the net impact of the proposal is a revenue reduction of $787 million due to the CNIT rate reduction. The Hits: 9
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf in 1981 by the Public Employee Retirement Commission Act (Act 66 of 1981). The Commission is composed of nine members, five of whom are appointed by the Governor with the advice and consent of the Senate, and four of whom are implicates other sanctions laws that penalize persons and countries engaging in trade with state sponsors of terrorism. Currently, there are five countries officially designated by the U.S. government as state sponsors of terrorism: Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Sudan and Syria Hits: 9
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Educational, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Brewers the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Please note that although the IFO requested five years of ETC data, in some cases the Department of Community and Economic Development was only able to supply two Hits: 8
NGPR_2022_Q2.pdf wells through the second quarter of 2022 and 2021. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top five counties accounted for 75 Hits: 8
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it assumes that a recession does not occur over the five-year budget win- dow. In this manner, the economic forecast represents an optimistic scenario. The report designates FY 2022-23 Hits: 8
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it assumes that a recession does not occur over the five-year budget window. In this manner, the economic forecast represents an optimistic scenario. The report designates FY 2021-22 as Hits: 8
2004_srpvffinal.pdf indicates a specific vesting period after which the member is fully vested (example, “5-year Cliff” would indicate vesting after five years of service credit has been earned). “Partial” indicates that members vest in a percentage of their benefit over specific service time frames (example, 25% vested after five years, 5% per year thereafter, 100% vested after 20 years service). “None” indicates the plan has no vesting provision and Hits: 8
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Hits: 7
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2017. That time period covers five complete budget cycles. For each fiscal year, this document compares actual collections to the IFO’s revenue estimates made at three specific also released. The text that follows discusses the performance of IFO General Fund revenue estimates for the past five fiscal years, and describes the factors that caused forecast errors. As a general rule of thumb, a total forecast error that is Hits: 7
NGPR_2021_Q4.pdf production volume and producing wells in 2020 and 2021. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top five counties accounted for 76 Hits: 7
NGPR_2021_Q3.pdf same period in the prior year, and the second-lowest number of wells spud in a quarter in the last five years. New wells spud has declined quarter-to-quarter throughout 2021. Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Production 1,718 wells through the third quarter of 2020 and 2021. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top Hits: 7
NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf quarter of 2019, the lowest such growth rate on record. Year-over-year production growth has decelerated over the last five quarters after very strong gains from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019. Furthermore, total production counts through the third quarter for 2019 and 2020. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top Hits: 7
NGPR-2022-Q1.pdf wells for the first quarter of 2021 and 2022. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top five counties accounted for 75 Hits: 7
NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf of 18.6 percent in the third quarter of 2018. Since reaching this peak, quarterly production growth has decelerated in five of the last six quarters. Figure 2 shows the quarterly number of new horizontal wells spud since the first quarter counts for the first quarter of 2020 and 2019. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top Hits: 7
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it does not assume that a recession occurs over the five-year budget win- dow. In this manner, the economic forecast represents an optimistic scenario. The report designates FY 2020-21 Hits: 7
2002_dbdc_report.pdf states that are DC or have a DC component. Nearly one-quarter of these plans were implemented during the past five years, suggesting that strong investment returns of recent years provided some impetus for the recent increased use of the DC effects of inflation on retiree benefits. Beginning in 1968, these cost-of-living adjustments have been authorized every four or five years, with the amounts generally determined using a formula based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index. The most Hits: 7
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf remaining $6.5 billion was remitted by residential rental and other commercial properties. Table 3 displays the top and bottom five counties based on SD property tax revenue per capita for FY 2021-22. All top five counties are located in the eastern portion of the state, and four counties (Montgomery, Chester, Bucks, Delaware) are suburbs that Hits: 6
RB 2019 RACP.pdf different implications for the local units that benefit from the grants. Table 3 allocates the approved projects into the following five categories: 1. Economic Development Projects that spur economic and local development or do not fall cleanly into one of the for RACP. Those factors are as follows:  A wide variety of projects receive grants. Even after placing projects into five distinct categories, there is no “typical” project that could be used as representative of others within the same category. For Hits: 6
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The toll increases). The current debt load for the Commonwealth is approximately $4,000 per resident, which increased 3% over the five-year timeframe. Not shown in the figure is the cost to borrow. For new debt issuances in 2020 and 2021 Hits: 6
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The and use our history in meaningful ways. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by PHMC are classified into five general activities. Activity Primary Service 1 State Archives and Records Center ………………Store and preserve historically significant documents 2 Historical Sites Hits: 6
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year (FY 2020-21 Hits: 6
NGQU_2023_Q4.pdf and new wells drilled for calendar year (CY) 2023. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top-five producing counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) remaining counties as a third group. The five counties shown accounted for 72 Hits: 6
NGPR_2022_Q4.pdf wells for calendar year (CY) 2022 and CY 2021. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) remaining counties as a third group. The top five counties accounted for 74 Hits: 6
NGPR_2022_Q3.pdf wells through the third quarter of 2022 and 2021. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) remaining counties as another group. The top five counties accounted for 74.6% Hits: 6
NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf wells through the second quarter of 2020 and 2021. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top five counties accounted for 75 Hits: 6
NGPR_2020_Q4.pdf production volume and producing wells for 2019 and 2020. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top five counties accounted for 74 Hits: 6
NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf counts through the second quarter for 2019 and 2020. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top five counties accounted for 73 Hits: 6
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Educational, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Brewers 48. Currently, 12 states (includes Pennsylvania) offer a tax incentive for brewers. Six states offer a tax credit for brewers, five states offer a tax exemption or reduced tax rate and one state offers a tax rebate. Requirements for each incentive Hits: 5
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf over the past decade. Part Four derives the static revenue impact from an SUT exemption for aircraft. Part Five analyzes employment trends across the states included in this analysis for statistical evidence of an increase in aviation related employment following the York are also subject to local sales tax which may increase the effective tax rate by three to five percentage points depending on location. 7 However, North Carolina applies a reduced tax rate to sales of aircraft. Independent Fiscal Office Page Hits: 5
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf school district property tax revenue per capita by county for FY 2020-21. The table shows the top and bottom five counties based on revenue per capita. These data show that all top five counties are in the eastern portion of the state. Three counties (Montgomery, Chester, Bucks) include suburbs that surround Philadelphia. The Hits: 5
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The human and economic impact of the disease. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by DDAP are classified into five general activities. Department Resources Activity Primary Service(s) 1 County Program Oversight............ Provide technical assistance and oversight to 47 SCAs Hits: 5
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The present and future generations’ use and enjoyment. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by DCNR are classified into five general activities. Department Resources Activity Primary Service 1 State Parks................................................................ Manage and protect Pennsylvania state parks 2 State Forests............................................................ Manage Hits: 5
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The formerly self-employed but could assert they ceased working due to COVID concerns, had minimal work history (e.g., worked five hours per week) or were planning to start employment but did not due to COVID. The table above displays the Hits: 5
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year are not included Hits: 5
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf Cash Income, an income measure constructed by the IFO, includes all income received by Pennsylvania residents. It has five components: (1) wages and salaries, (2) capital income (interest, dividends, rent-royalties and capital gains), (3) net business profits (partnerships, S corporations two components, (2) personal income tax (PIT) revenues and (3) sales and use tax (SUT) revenues over a five-year period. The two component income series motivate the projec- tion of these major tax revenue sources. Wages and salaries reflect the Hits: 5
NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf producing wells for first quarter of 2020 and 2021. Ranked in order of production, the table shows (1) the top five counties, (2) the next five counties combined into one group and (3) the remaining counties as another group. The top five counties accounted for 75 Hits: 5
NAP-2018-03.pdf 1 This tax credit program is administered by the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) and consists of five components: (1) the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit, (2) the Special Program Priorities, (3) the Neighborhood Partnership Program, (4) the utilizes tax credits to encourage private investment in projects that serve distressed or impoverished areas. 3 The program consists of five components, each with specific eligibility requirements and credit award structures. The five components include: Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit (NAP Hits: 5
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf Cash Income, an income measure constructed by the IFO, includes all income received by Pennsylvania residents. It has five components: (1) wages and salaries, (2) capital income (interest, dividends, rent-royalties and capital gains), (3) net business profits (partnerships, S corporations two components, (2) personal income tax (PIT) revenues and (3) sales and use tax (SUT) revenues over a five-year period. The two component income series motivate the projec- tion of these major tax revenue sources. Wages and salaries reflect the Hits: 5
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s five-year economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25, is available Hits: 5
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation Hits: 5
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf underlying base growth rate from 3.3 to 2.0 percent. Long‐Term Budget Outlook The IFO recently released its five‐year economic and budget outlook report as required by statute. Due to the budget impasse, the report was re‐released as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Hits: 5
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf Page 8 Revenue Impact Table 1.2 displays the estimated net revenue impact of the CNIT proposal over the next five fiscal years using baseline estimates from the IFO’s Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook for FY 2020-21 to 2025- 26. The proposal has no impact on FY 2020- Hits: 4
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf proposals included in the 2019-20 Executive Budget and the corresponding impact on General Fund revenues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates, as well as Revenue Impact Table 1.3 displays the estimated net revenue impact of the CNIT proposal over the next five fiscal years. The proposal has no impact on FY 2018-19 and reduces revenue by $2 million for FY 2019-20. By Hits: 4
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf included in the 2018-19 Executive Budget and the corresponding impact on General Fund reve- nues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates and provides interstate Revenue Impact Table 1.2 displays the estimated net revenue impact of the CNIT proposal over the next five fiscal years. The proposal has no impact on FY 2018-19 and increases revenue by $294 million for FY 2019-20. By Hits: 4
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf of the revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the policy change would yield $150 million of additional revenues for the 18). For the six remaining years, the forecast error was evenly split between over and underprediction errors (three years each). Five of those fiscal years were affected by significant policy changes at the federal and/or state levels: (1) the FY Hits: 4
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf 2010 bars executive agencies from issuing pension obligation bonds, those agencies also cannot make advance payments. Table 1 lists the five largest eligible employers (based on UAL value as of December 31, 2019), their UAL, the share of those UALs within SERS and the minimum contribution if they made an advance payment. If all five employers participated, then advance payments could range from $2.9 billion (75%) to $3.8 billion (100%). 1 Credits not Hits: 4
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf In October 2021, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release demographic projections that will be incorporated into its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results from those projections that estimate the impact of COVID- for the remainder of the year. To compute additional deaths that may be due to COVID-19, the analysis removes five categories that are not directly related to COVID-19 (but may be indirectly related) and can be readily quantified: overdoses Hits: 4
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The 50 in 2017. The department was able to recover or order restitutions that total nearly $55 million in the last five years. Financial Regulation The department conducts insurance company licensing, financial review and examinations to ensure solvency of companies providing products Hits: 4
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The customer-focused, and employee-centered agency. 1 Services Provided For this report, the services provided by DOR are classified into five general activities. Department Resources 1 See DOR’s strategic plan at Strategic Plan (pa.gov). Activity Primary Service(s) 1 Hits: 4
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The function shared by multiple bureaus/programs such as inspections. The Bureau of Rides and Measurement Standards currently uses PAIRS, but five of the eleven bureaus within the department conduct regulatory inspections and could share the PAIRS application as well as maintenance Hits: 4
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year (FY 2020-21 Hits: 4
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year (FY 2020-21 Hits: 4
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf million and the maximum al- lowable deduction was 25 percent, which could be utilized over a period of five years. Fiscal Analysis Program credits are issued only after the application is approved, the investment is complete and the De- partment of of agricultural assets who sell or rent those assets to beginning farmers. The credit is equal to (1) five percent of the lesser of the sale price or the fair market value up to a maximum of $32,000, or (2 Hits: 4
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf the Office of the Budget, can be found at the end of this submission. In January 2019, the IFO transmitted five PBB plans and three tax credit reviews to the PBB Board. For the next round, the IFO is scheduled to as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Hits: 4
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Budget. The IFO balance sheet utilizes revenue estimates from the IFO's Mid-Year Update and growth rates from the Five-Year Outlook (Nov 2023). Expenditures for current year and budget year are from the FY 2024-25 Governor's Executive Hits: 4
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Financial Statement Comparison IFO $ Difference Note: Millions of dollars. IFO estimate uses GF revenues, refunds and expenditures from the IFO Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook (January 2021). New Municipal Fee for State Police Services PlanCon Funding Program Eliminations/Funding Reductions Hits: 4
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf credit reviews to the PBB Board. For the next round, the IFO is scheduled to transmit four PBB plans and five tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Hits: 4
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the Hits: 4
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the Hits: 4
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the Hits: 4
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf a rank of 40 out of the 44 states that levy a CNIT. Based on the request, this analysis contains five sections. The first section discusses changes in state CNIT rates during the past five years and changes scheduled to occur during the subsequent five years. The second section compares CNIT revenues to state personal Hits: 4
2002_drop_report.pdf Usually, a member must be eligible for full retirement in order to participate. Maximum drop participation periods between two and five years are common. Typically, neither benefit accruals nor contributions take place during the DROP participation period. Most DROPs allow for plan while participating in the DROP. At the conclusion of the extended employment period, which typically is not more than five years in duration, the DROP participant is required to terminate service, the DROP account balance is paid to the DROP Hits: 4
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Manufacturing, Resource Manufac- turing, Rural Jobs and 3 Introduction Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. 1 For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Manufacturing, Resource Manufac- turing, Rural Jobs Hits: 3
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf packet, which uses FY 24-25 spending from the Executive Budget and out-year growth rates from the IFO’s Five-Year Outlook. Those projections assumed that (1) DHS spending grows by an average of $830 million per annum, (2) basic s Mid-Year Update (FY 23-24 and FY 24-25) and out-year growth rates from the IFO's Five-Year Outlook (Nov 2023). Refunds and lapses are from the FY 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget. Expenditures for FY Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the policy change would yield $150 million of additional revenues for the fiscal year In those cases, revenues were slightly higher than projected (excludes JUA transfer for FY 2017-18). For the five remaining years, the forecast error was split between over and underprediction errors (three years and two years, respectively). Three of those fiscal Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf May update ($67 million). 1 Although the office also makes revenue projections each November as part of its five-year outlook, those estimates are not included in this document because they are not materially different than the official estimate released in revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the policy change would yield $150 million of additional revenues for the fiscal year Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf price (AWP) of fuel, until the cap was eliminated beginning in calendar year 2017 and thereafter. In the five years prior to enactment of Act 89, total MLF revenues increased at an average annual rate of only 0.3 percent. (See Table 2.4.) For the five years subsequent to passage of Act 89, revenues increase at an average annual rate of 6.8 percent. This outcome was largely Hits: 3
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf generation less sales, direct use and line losses.) Since 2018, exports increased 53.5%, which easily outpaced the other top five export states. However, more recently, Pennsylvania net exports declined by 4.8% from 2021 (not shown). This may have been electricity generators emitted an estimated 73 million tons of carbon dioxide, a 4.9% decrease from 2018. The other top five electricity exporters recorded larger emissions reductions, but a reduction or flat growth in net generation. Pennsylvania was the only state Hits: 3
RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf provisional counts for the entire year. To compute additional deaths that may be due to COVID-19, the analysis removes five categories that are not directly related to COVID-19 (but may be indirectly related) and can be readily quantified: overdoses vehicle accident deaths increased further in 2021 (+6.6%) after an uptick in 2020 (+4.4%). The removal of these five categories yields “residual” deaths, which are due to various medical ailments such as heart disease, organ failure, cancer and COVID- Hits: 3
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf capita average income growth. Average per capita income growth for the state was 4.4 percent per annum. The top five counties were as follows: Greene (7.5 percent), Fulton (7.3 percent) Juniata (7.1 percent), Potter (7.1 percent) and Susquehanna (6.7 percent). The five lowest counties were: Philadelphia (1.2 percent), Forest (2.1 percent), Carbon (3.1 percent), Montgomery (3.4 percent) and Hits: 3
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf s Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November 2022). 4 Tax revenues for FY 2028-29 and beyond are assumed to grow at the same investment returns over a 30-year period to illustrate the likelihood of potential outcomes for the system. The analysis presents five potential outcomes from the simulations based on percentiles of the distribution of outcomes. The table below displays geometric average returns Hits: 3
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The 482 $740 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 FFS NF FFS Non-NF Over the past five fiscal years, total FFS expenditures de- clined from $6.5 billion to $0.6 billion as the population served has Hits: 3
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. The staff will provide on-site assistance and will monitor again within 90 days of a valid corrective action plan. The five AAAs that serve Allegheny, Berks, Dauphin, Erie and Philadelphia counties are included in this category. While a limited number of Hits: 3
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year (FY 2020-21 Hits: 3
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year are not included Hits: 3
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year are not included Hits: 3
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year are not included Hits: 3
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Special studies at request of General benefit to homeowners/landlords. 19.May.2017 Homeowners vs. Renters 21 19.May.2017 Changes in Student Enrollment District Group Five-Year Change Annual Rate Top 25% 3.3% 0.7% Second 25% -2.4% -0.5% Third 25% -6.6% Hits: 3
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf both series return to levels that are more in line with a historical share of state GDP over the next five years. Values for 2023 are informed by year-to-date stock market performance and corporate profit growth.  Interest Income as the dependent variable and two independent variables including the log of state GDP and the log of a computed five-year weighted average rate for (1) the three- month treasury bill, (2) the one-year treasury bill and (3) the Hits: 3
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf both series return to levels that are more in line with a historical share of state GDP over the next five years. ▪ Interest Income: Interest income is primarily a function of the average growth rates of various short- and long-term as the dependent variable and two independent variables including the log of state GDP and the log of a computed five-year weighted average rate for (1) the three- month treasury bill, (2) the one-year treasury bill and (3) the Hits: 3
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf Property) and Dividends: The forecast assumes that both series return to a historical share of state GDP over the next five years. ▪ Interest Income: Interest income is primarily a function of the average growth rates of various short- and long-term as the dependent variable and two independent variables including the log of state GDP and the log of a computed five-year weighted average rate for (1) the three- month treasury bill, (2) the one-year treasury bill and (3) the Hits: 3
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf Dividends: The forecast assumes that both series return to a historical share of state GDP over the next five years. Similar to net business income, growth rate adjustments were made for tax years 2017 through 2019 to account for behavioral impacts dependent variable and two independent variables including the log of state GDP and the log of a computed five-year weighted average rate for (1) the three- month treasury bill, (2) the one-year treasury bill and (3) the five-year Hits: 3
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf Dividends: The forecast assumes that both series return to a historical share of state GDP over the next five years. Similar to net business income, growth rate adjustments were made for tax years 2017 through 2019 to account for behavioral impacts dependent variable and two independent variables including the log of state GDP and the log of a computed five-year weighted average rate for (1) the three- month treasury bill, (2) the one-year treasury bill and (3) the five-year Hits: 3
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf the AWP of fuel, until the cap was eliminated beginning in calendar year 2017 and thereafter. In the five years prior to enactment of Act 89, total MLF revenues increased at an average annual rate of only 0.3 percent. (See Table 2.4.) For the five years subsequent to passage of Act 89, revenues increase at an average annual rate of 6.8 percent. This outcome was largely Hits: 3
NGPR-2018Q2.pdf the previous quarter. Figure 4 displays the number of new horizontal wells spud in each quar- ter over the last five calendar years. For the second quarter of 2018, there were 212 new horizontal wells spud, which is an increase of Among the top-ten producing states, Louisiana and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for the first five months of 2018 while Alaska was the only state in the top ten to register a decline. Figure 6 displays Hits: 3
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with in unfunded liability from The Pennsylvania State University. Independent Fiscal Office 19 March 2023 SERS PSERS Total SERS PSERS Total Five Years -$0.24 -$0.29 -$0.53 $0.23 $0.25 $0.48 Ten Years -$1.43 -$2.00 -$3 Hits: 3
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf 15 Economic Development Incentives ........................................................................... 16 Minimum Wage by State ......................................................................................... 18 PBB – Agency Reviews ............................................................................................ 19 PBB - Tax Credit Evaluations .................................................................................... 20 PBB – Five-Year Schedule ........................................................................................ 21 - This page intentionally left blank. - Independent Fiscal Office 1 February 2022 Independent Fiscal Office – Overview Independent Fiscal as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Hits: 3
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf regarding the recent weakness in sales tax, and we will monitor that tax source as we prepare to release our five-year budget projections in November. Related to revenues, the state economy is performing as expected. Through July, the labor market as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Hits: 3
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2:00 p.m. Location: 14 th Floor th , details the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures and revenues over the next five fiscal years. The update will reflect the most recent revenue and expenditure estimates. In particular, the expenditure estimates for FY Hits: 3
Pensions and PSERS. The analysis must include: (1) the potential cost savings if the early retirement option was offered in one-, five-, and ten-year increments; (2) value in ... read more SB 32 Summary • Miscellaneous 0092 Muth Would require the State Employees and regional police departments to amend their statutes to allow for uniformed police officers the option to purchase up to five years of pension service for prior part- or full-time police service. Provides for methodology in determination ... read more SB Hits: 3
Pensions 30-year period using level-dollar amortization payments, including the costs of the act. • Beginning July 1, 2011, extended from five years to ten years the asset smoothing period over which investment gains and losses are recognized for PSERS. • Maintained the current five-year asset smoothing period over which investment gains and losses are recognized for SERS. • Funded any increases in accrued liability Hits: 3
Pensions purchase service credit for nonintervening military service and mandating that the City permit eligible active members to purchase up to five years of nonintervening military service credit. Act 2014 - 64 (Senate Bill Number 703, Printer's Number 708). Signed into law purchase service credit for nonintervening military service and mandating that the City permit eligible active members to purchase up to five years of nonintervening military service credit. Act 2013 - 125 (House Bill Number 546, Printer's Number 2595). Signed into law Hits: 3
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Educational, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Brewers 3 Introduction Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. 1 For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational, Mixed- Hits: 2
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf reversion to the baseline rate of return (6.875%) for future years. The table below displays the 20-year projections (five-year increments) if the system underperformed its assumed net investment rate of return by 2% each year for 10 years impact from long-term underperformance compounds over time and results in contributions that are 35.6% higher in the final five years of the projection period compared to the baseline. The system’s funded status is 87% in 2042, 10 percentage Hits: 2
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf reversion to the baseline rate of return (6.875%) for future years. The table below displays the 20-year projections (five-year increments) if the fund underperformed its assumed net investment rate of return by 2% each year for ten years The impact from long-term underperformance compounds over time and results in contributions that are 54% higher in the final five years of the projection period compared to the baseline. The system’s funded status is 92% in 2041, 13 percentage Hits: 2
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Browne requested an update of the IFO’s five-year projections of General Fund revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget. The 24 through FY 2026-27 are based on the current services methodology and underlying data described in the IFO’s Five- Year Outlook Report. Projected growth rates are a function of (1) service populations, (2) inflation and (3) various technical factors Hits: 2
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf a high-need subject area at qualified rural or low-performing schools. The credit is available annually for up to five years if employment at the qualified school is maintained. 4 ▪ The New Mexico 2022 Nurse’s Credit was a one- and small employers are more likely to be impacted by the proposal. The projected employment impact is displayed in column five (job contraction) and is equal to: number of jobs (column 1) * percent increase in wage (column 3) * elasticity (column 4 Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf for FY 2017-18). For the eight remaining years, the forecast error was split between over (three years) and underprediction (five years) errors. Five of those fiscal years were affected by significant policy changes at the federal and/or state levels: (1) the FY Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf 0% growth) and revenues grow by 3%, then net earnings would grow by 8.2%. 1 Data for the last five quarters show that YOY revenue growth slowed notably, while the average profit margin contracted. Both outcomes contributed to an earnings YOY basis, those CNIT final payments increased 27%. The provision requires corporations to amortize qualifying research and development expenditures over five years (and other research and development expenditures over 15 years) as opposed to immediate expensing or deduction. The provision is Hits: 2
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf of the revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the policy change would yield $150 million of additional revenues for the driven by a much larger than anticipated gain in escheats collections related to the reduction in the holding period from five to three years; (3) the FY 2018-19 underprediction error was mainly driven by laws that expanded the federal and Hits: 2
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the policy change would yield $150 million of additional revenues for the fiscal year a much larger than anticipated gain in escheats collections related to the reduction in the holding period from five to three years. The FY 2018-19 underprediction error was mainly driven by laws that expanded the federal and state tax bases Hits: 2
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf 0% growth) and revenues grow by 3%, then net earnings would grow by 8.2%. 1 Data for the last five quarters show that YOY revenue growth slowed notably, while the average profit margin contracted. Both outcomes contributed to an earnings YOY basis, those CNIT final payments increased 27%. The provision requires corporations to amortize qualifying research and development expenditures over five years (and other research and development expenditures over 15 years) as opposed to immediate expensing or deduction. The provision is Hits: 2
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf revenues have contracted rapidly at an average rate of 8.3% per annum through FY 2022-23. For the first five months of FY 2023-24, state revenues are down 9.4% from the prior year and will be down 24 compared to Pennsylvania and the U.S. After falling by 20.4% in FY 2022-23, data for the first five months of FY 2023-24 show that Philadelphia cigarette tax collections declined by 15.3%, much stronger than U.S Hits: 2
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf Introduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and income trends, and Forest County). Counties with stronger population growth tended to have faster personal income growth (e.g., Cumberland, Chester and Monroe). Five of the eight counties with income growth less than inflation all recorded population declines greater than 0.5%. 1 Source Hits: 2
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf domestic migration gains that exceeded 1.00% of the state population, while South Carolina and Delaware rounded out the top five states. ▪ For Pennsylvania, net domestic migration was -4,866 (-0.04% of state population) which ranked 31 st across all 4,752) and Maryland (2,977). ▪ The largest net outflows were to Florida (-11,173) and North Carolina (-4,086). ▪ Five of the top six states for net outflows from Pennsylvania were southern states. The dataset also includes breakouts based on Hits: 2
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf capita average income growth. Average per capita income growth for the state was 3.0 percent per annum. The top five counties were as follows: Juniata (5.1 percent), Potter (5.0 percent) Philadelphia (4.8 percent), Carbon (4.6 percent) and Pike (4.4 percent). The five lowest counties were: Bradford (1.0 percent), Wyoming (1.0 percent), Lycoming (1.2 percent), Crawford (1.2 percent) and Hits: 2
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf s Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November 2023). 4 Tax revenues for FY 2029-30 and beyond are assumed to grow at the same investment returns over a 30-year period to illustrate the likelihood of potential outcomes for the system. The analysis presents five potential outcomes from the simulations based on percentiles of the distribution of outcomes. These po- tential outcomes are: • 95th Percentile Hits: 2
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf Tax Revenues. o Best real-time indicator of PA economic conditions. Upcoming Studies. o HB 76 and SB 76. o Five-Year Outlook. 24 . Sept . 2013 2 Today’s Presentation PA Economic Outlook Weakens annual growth rate or levels 2012 2013 o Eliminates most local school operating property tax for homesteads. o But no taxation of services. 24 . Sept . 2013 24 Five-Year Outlook Report Table 16 Expenditures vs. Revenues, FY 2012-13 to FY 2017-18 ($ millions) 2013-14 2014-15 Hits: 2
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf 2014 Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania’s Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20 Provide Five-Year Projections For: • Pennsylvania Demographics • Pennsylvania Economics • General Fund Revenues • General Fund Expenditures Why Do We Do It? • Establish a contributions moderates. • By FY 2019-20, revenues and expenditures grow at roughly same rate (3.2 percent). 3.Dec.2014 Five-Year Outlook: Two Time Frames 20 3.Dec.2014 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019- Hits: 2
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf declines may experience largest increases in per-student revenue. 18 March 8, 2018 Changes In Student Enrollment 19 District Group Five-Year Change Annual Rate Top 25% 2.3% 0.5% Second 25% -2.5% -0.5% Third 25% -6.7% Total Non-Tax 2,859 734 2,594 611 265 123 27 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. March 8, 2018 Five-Year Fiscal Outlook 28 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note Hits: 2
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf employee wage contracts.  Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 7/14/2017 2 Today’s Presentation PA’s long-term structural imbalance.  Origins Inflation 2.0% 2.0% (3) Healthcare Premium n.a. 1.5% Total Annual Budget Growth 2.3% 6.0% Five-Year Cumulative Growth 12.0% 33.8% Pension Contributions and Unfunded Liabilities 7/14/2017 23 13.3% 19.3% Hits: 2
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. The General Inflation 2.0% 2.0% (3) Healthcare Premium n.a. 1.5% TOTAL ANNUAL FACTOR 2.3% 6.0% Five‐Year Cumulative Growth 12.0% 33.8% IFO Expenditure Projections 8.Jun.2016 16 $533 $676 $820 $865 $859 $865 Hits: 2
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year (FY 2020-21 Hits: 2
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year (FY 2020-21 Hits: 2
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years based on a schedule agreed to by the Secretary of the Budget and the Director of the IFO. 1 The act The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide data for the current year and five historical years so that policymakers can view recent trends. It is noted that data for the upcoming budget year are not included Hits: 2
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf vs. authorized complement.  Allocate overhead costs to activities when possible.  Show all relevant funding sources per activity.  Five-year history on “actual spend” basis. Note: FY 2018-19 shows appropriated amounts.  Actuals not available. Different than historical between 2006 and 2016, even though the crime rate decreased. Significant reductions in inmate population in each of the last five years.  One of the highest community supervision rates in the nation.  No cap on probation terms.  Use Hits: 2
NGPR-2017Q1.pdf to 1.8 percent in the most recent quarter. The number of producing wells has steadily grown over the last five quarters. Annual growth in average production per well has declined since the third quarter of 2016. Table 5: Historical Quarterly recorded the largest production gains for the first two months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Five states (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Colorado and Wyoming) registered declines. Figure 3 displays the composition of total U.S. production by Hits: 2
NFIB_Presentation.pdf staff, but expanding. ◦ Like the Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews issue revenue estimate. ◦ Provides General Assembly a starting point for deliberations. ◦ Governor still provides “official certification” of estimate. November 15: Five-Year Budget Outlook. ◦ Primary purpose: identify long-term structural issues. ◦ Has morphed into early deficit estimate for this/next fiscal Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf growth in fed- eral debt levels over the next decade. Much of the deficit growth will occur in the next five years and then level off thereafter. The CBO also revised its projection for real GDP to reflect recent changes in federal tax policy. (Full Report) Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this winter were given to Americans who use 45 percent of their monthly income for debt service. The Hits: 2
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf governing board. Non-partisan vs. bi-partisan.  Primary duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  Special studies at request of General Fund 3.3% 6.0% 0.2% 3.3% 6.0% 0.2% Source: Executive Budgets, various years and IFO five-year outlook reports. Includes $595 million for higher education funding. October 19, 2017 20 Pensions: Employer Contribution Rates 0% 5% Hits: 2
MTR-2016-06.pdf sources. One timely indicator of the state economy is employment growth, which remains solid. Based on data from the first five months of the year, the state is on pace to add 54,500 jobs in 2016, which is comparable to last year’s average gain of 48,600. During the same five months, sales and use tax (SUT) revenues increased 4.6%, an indication that consumers remain confident in the economy and Hits: 2
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf Private Sector Retirement Security January 25, 2018 Aging Population Has Broad Implications  Pennsylvania undergoing dramatic transformation.  Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade.  Subtle impacts on economic growth and tax revenues.  Difficult to quantify. Must Fiscal Office 5 turn age 65 net gain age 65+ Note: Percentages are decedent rates for age 65+ population at five-year increments. Sources: PA Department of Health, U.S. Census Bureau. Projections after 2017 by IFO. number residents 5.3% Hits: 2
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf reduces the relative prices of those goods. The attached table displays the average change due to the proposal for two five-year periods. Regarding the output, the following items are noted: • All estimates are in nominal terms and include inflation. • The 87 $84 Notes: Calendar years, millions of nominal dollars. Proposal starts January 1, 2023. Figures are average annual change during five-year time period. General Fund Tax Revenue is an IFO estimate based on REMI macro output. REMI Results for Gasoline Hits: 2
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf Economic Outlook And Property Tax Update Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials November 16, 2021 Two Parts Overview of IFO Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Will workers return? ▪ Does inflation decelerate? ▪ Do budget surpluses last? Property Tax Update ▪ No look year collections are flat. ▪ FY 2021-22 millage rates published by PDE. ▪ Current wage projections by the IFO utilized in Five-Year Outlook. New projection is $330 million higher in FY 25-26 than February ▪ Due to 20-21 revision and Hits: 2
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Pennsylvania (September 2017)  PDA Wage Contract Analysis (September 2017)  School Property Tax and Related Data (November 2017)  Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2017)  County Homestead Detail (December 2017)  School Property Taxes: Households Age 60 Hits: 2
IFO ppt.pdf Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Background • Public Act 120 of 2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year outlook report. – Release date is November 15 th . – Consider economics, demographics, revenues and expenditures. • Act also requires Office to this year, the Office has combined two events. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Five–Year Outlook Report • Report and presentations will be posted on website: www.ifo.state.pa.us • Modeling is simple and Hits: 2
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf Fund Expenditures For FY 2022-23, the IFO had projected $41.3 billion in General Fund expenditures in its latest five-year outlook report (November 2021). That amount is for illustrative purposes only and will change based on current budget negotiations average benefit amount ($29,820) for the two systems. The table displays nominal payments over the next 10 years at five-year increments and outcomes under two inflation scenarios. The first scenario assumes inflation of 2.0% per annum, which reflects Hits: 2
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf majority of net new jobs created. Performance Based-Budgeting (PBB) and Tax Credit Reviews In January 2019, the IFO submitted five PBB plans and three tax credit reviews to the PBB Board for their review. These reports represent the first year of a five-year cycle where all agencies under the governor’s jurisdiction and all tax credits will come under review. The PBB Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Annual Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Report and presentation will be posted to IFO website at conclusion. ▪ Questions will be addressed Update spending adjustments of -$450 million for FY 23-24. General Fund Financial Statement November 15, 2023 12 Budget IFO Five-Year Outlook 23-24 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 Current Year Revenues 1 Hits: 2
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. Projections are made on a current-law and current-services basis. Major findings include:  Recent budgets have been exhausted.  Mandated employer contributions for pensions and healthcare inflation continue to drive much of the expenditure growth in the five year projections.  The Pennsylvania economy will expand, but at a moderate pace. Long-term demographic trends and continued tax Hits: 2
Electricity_Update_2024.pdf the only other regional state to record an increase in net electricity generation since 2018. Table 2 shows the top five states for net exports of electricity for 2023 and net exports for regional states. For 2023, Pennsylvania exported an estimated the percent change in average price from 2018 to 2023. The Pennsylvania residential price increased by 30.3% during the five-year period, the most among regional states. The entire Pennsylvania price increase occurred in 2022 and 2023, as the average Hits: 2
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf partisan analysis. • No governing board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at request of General Assembly.  Office Note: millions of dollars. PSERS is Public School Employees’ Retirement System and SERS is State Employees’ Retirement System. Source: IFO Five-Year Outlook Reports and Executive Budgets. Pensions – Employer Rates February 28, 2017 14 20% 11% 5% 4% 5% 21% 36% Hits: 2
DotPlotData.xlsx district current expenditures/student and average share of standardized tests that were scored as proficient or above. 1 There were five suburban school districts that fall outside of this figure and are excluded. These five dots would all be red and placed at the following coordinates: ($31,860, 14%), ($13,882, 14%), ($22,594, 15% Hits: 2
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current year and the succeeding five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with breakdown of the IFO’s official estimate with adjustments for tax law changes enacted in conjunction with the state budget. • Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. Due by November 15 each year. • Quarterly Revenue Review. Published after each quarter to compare Hits: 2
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Contract Analysis (September 2016) • Actuarial Note Transmittal for A10803 to Senate Bill 1071 (October 2016) • Quarterly Revenue Review (October 2016) • Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 3 (November 2016) • Impact Fee Estimate (January 2017 Hits: 2
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Contract Analysis (September 2016) • Actuarial Note Transmittal for A10803 to Senate Bill 1071 (October 2016) • Quarterly Revenue Review (October 2016) • Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 3 (November 2016) • Impact Fee Estimate (January 2017 Hits: 2
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf regarding the average profit margin per dollar of sales for Pennsylvania businesses. If one assumes an average profit margin of five percent, then the additional purchases could generate $125 million of business income. That income would be taxed at the individual Hits: 1
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf Pennsylvania.  The numbers of both non-depository businesses and securities- related entities have grown each year over the last five years.  The merger of Securities into the Department of Banking and Securities impacts historical trends in the report.  Hits: 1
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx in Pennsylvania. ▪ The numbers of both non-depository businesses and securities-related entities have grown each year over the last five years. ▪ The merger of Securities into the Department of Banking and Securities impacts historical trends in the report. ▪ Educational programs Hits: 1
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf Pennsylvania.  The numbers of both non-depository businesses and securities- related entities have grown each year over the last five years.  The merger of Securities into the Department of Banking and Securities impacts historical trends in the report.  Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf Weighted Average State Tax Comparison Page 10 Certain states collect significant severance tax revenues. For FY 2021-22, the top five states include Texas ($10.9 billion), North Dakota ($2.9 billion), New Mexico ($2.3 billion), Oklahoma ($1.5 billion Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf S. Weighted Tax Comparison Study Page 10 Certain states collect significant severance tax revenues. For FY 2020-21, the top five states include Texas ($5.1 billion), New Mexico ($1.8 billion), North Dakota ($1.7 billion), Oklahoma ($754 million) and Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf Weighted Avg. State Tax Comparison Page 10 Certain states collect significant severance tax revenues. For FY 2018-19, the top five states included Texas ($5.8 billion), North Dakota ($2.6 billion), New Mexico ($1.5 billion), Oklahoma ($1.2 billion Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf Tax Comparison Study Page 10 Certain states collect significant severance tax revenues. For FY 2018-19, the top five states included Texas ($5.8 billion), North Dakota ($2.6 billion), New Mexico ($1.5 billion), Oklahoma ($1.2 billion) and Alaska Hits: 1
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf Tax Comparison Study Page 11 Certain states collect significant severance tax revenues. For FY 2017-18, the top five states included Texas ($5.2 billion), North Dakota ($2.1 billion), New Mexico ($1.0 billion), Alaska ($931 million) and Oklahoma ($700 Hits: 1
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf and less on SUT and property to fund state and local services. Table 6 displays historical trends using five-year increments starting from FYE 1995. The data reveal an increase in the PIT ratio in 2005 due to the PIT rate Hits: 1
SR2017-03.pdf Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 11 Certain states collect significant severance tax revenues. For FY 2014-15, the top five states included Texas ($4.0 billion), North Dakota ($2.9 billion), New Mexico ($1.0 billion), Wyoming ($884 million) and Hits: 1
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf in September 2011. • Analyze fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  Office does not make policy recommendations. 16 Hits: 1
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf million Note: Dollar millions. PIT is personal income. General Fund Income Statement Slide 18 Jan 2024 Roundtable Nov 2023 IFO Five-Year Outlook 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 AAGR Current Year Revenues 1 $45 Hits: 1
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf and small employers are more likely to be impacted by the proposal. The projected employment impact is displayed in column five (job contraction) and is equal to: number of jobs * percent increase in wage * elasticity or response parameter. The analysis finds Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf food service, administra- tion-waste management (e.g., temporary workers and building maintenance services) and healthcare-social assistance. For its five-year outlook report released in January 2021, the IFO had projected that payroll employment would need six years to surpass Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf was revised to reflect recent trends in personal income tax withholding. Collections for this revenue source underperformed through the first five months of the calendar year, reducing the expected growth rate for the remainder of 2016 and 2017. Highlights of the Hits: 1
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf For CY 2021, all income sources shown in Table 2 are assumed to revert to a level that is approximately five to six percent higher than CY 2019. Despite the assumed rapid V-shaped recovery, the level of income that results Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf 20. Recent collections have been impacted by 2015 legislation that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property from five to three years. After an initial influx of collections, the shortened holding period dramatically increased claims by facilitating the return of unclaimed Hits: 1
Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf November, a decrease of 2.3% compared to collections for November 2011 (details on the next page). In the first five months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 4.4% to $9.79 billion. General Fund collections increased by 5 Hits: 1
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf 115 0 $115 6 $58 0 $58 Total $1,000 $1,000 0 1 $1,000 office equipment with a five year tax life. Half year convention. Personal Income Outlook 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 16  It is likely Hits: 1
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf assumptions, the analysis estimates that seniors remitted between $4.2 to $5.0 billion of General Fund revenues for these five revenue sources for FY 2017-18. For FY 2019- 20, the projected range is $4.6 to $5.4 billion Hits: 1
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf residents. The analysis estimates that seniors remitted between $4.6 to $5.4 billion of General Fund revenues for these five revenue sources for FY 2018-19. For FY 2020-21, the projected range is $4.8 to $5.6 billion Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf and county and municipal property taxes. To extrapolate the estimates to future years, an annual growth rate of four to five percent could be used. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me Hits: 1
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf necessary to fund the proposal would grow by roughly 4.0 to 5.0 percent per annum over the next five years. Your request also asks the IFO to compute the change in the personal income or sales tax rate necessary Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf federal stimulus funds, state funds increased in FY 2022-23 (+9.5%) and FY 2023- 24 (+35.6%). During the five-year period shown in the table, state funds increased $93 million (31%), federal funds by $271 million (86%) and total Hits: 1
RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdf critical infrastructure projects. These trends also impact the amount of matching funds available to leverage federal funding. Over the next five years, Pennsylvania is projected to receive $4 billion in federal matching funds for road and bridge construction. 1 Barrero, Bloom Hits: 1
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdf time period. Most regional states recorded higher levels of net domestic outmigration. The table also displays the top and bottom five states based on the net domestic migration relative to state population. Southern and most western states generally recorded large, positive Hits: 1
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdf analysis uses an average benefit amount ($29,820) for the two systems. The table displays nominal payments through 2035 at five-year increments and outcomes under two inflation scenarios. The first scenario assumes inflation of 2.0% per annum, which reflects Hits: 1
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf Board that estimated a range of $200 to $299 for 2019. The analysis uses $300 per month due to the five-year time gap and increasing cost of higher education. See: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2020-economic-well-being-of- Hits: 1
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdf 3,884) and Maryland (3,584). ▪ The largest net outflows were to Florida (-16,885) and North Carolina (-5,330). ▪ Five of the top six states for net outflows from Pennsylvania were southern states. The dataset also includes breakouts based on Hits: 1
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdf who are solely self-employed, and U.S. data show that the number of self-employed workers is now roughly five percent higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. State comparisons cannot be made because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Hits: 1
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf U.S. Energy Information Administration (See https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/factors-affecting- gasoline-prices.php?msclkid=c3084f24c0ad11ec8716ff12b15d1bde). Top Five States Rate Border States Rate Rank Pennsylvania 57.6 Maryland 36.1 8 California 51.1 Delaware 23.0 31 Hits: 1
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf average benefit amount ($29,820) for the two systems. The table displays nominal payments over the next 15 years at five-year increments and outcomes under two inflation scenarios. The first scenario assumes inflation of 2.0% per annum, which reflects Hits: 1
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf Fund revenue base for that fiscal year in Table 2. The IFO will update these projections as part of its Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook in mid-November. Table 3 uses data compiled by the Pew Charitable Trusts for its Hits: 1
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf Introduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents Hits: 1
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf Introduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and income trends, and Hits: 1
RB-2018-01.pdf exceed their index. For FY 2017-18, the amount of approved exceptions is $99.5 million. 8 Over the past five fiscal years, the average share of approved exceptions that were used was roughly 30 percent. This percentage is applied as Hits: 1
RB-2017-5.pdf farm employees, certain partners of partnership entities and self- employed individuals. The analysis computes average annual growth rates over the five-year time period for the three tax revenue sources and the three economic metrics. The analysis then uses the ratio Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q2.pdf of the $50 million licensing fee. • A statutory change to reduce the holding period for unclaimed property from five years to three years was originally estimated to increase annual revenues by $150 million. Actual collections exceeded estimates by $242 million, suggesting Hits: 1
QRE_FY14-15.pdf the disposition of abandoned and unclaimed property. Most reportable property was presumed to be abandoned and unclaimed after five years unless the owner of the property took certain actions within that time period. Independent Fiscal Office Page 9 Effective Date The Hits: 1
Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf s structural imbalance and the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the expenditures and revenues over the next five years. Guest Presenter: Daniel White, Senior Economist Moody’s Analytics Presentation on two topics that influence the long-term economic Hits: 1
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf 2011. Primary duty to provide General Fund revenue estimates ▪ Every January, May and June ▪ Economic trends and forecasts Each November: Five-Year Outlook ▪ General Fund revenues, expenditures, economics and demographics ▪ Long-term structural surplus or deficit for the state Other Duties Hits: 1
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf are replaced with less experienced, lower wage staff).  This report does not assume that a recession occurs over the five-year budget window. Therefore, the economic forecast represents a “best case” scenario. However, the report includes a cautionary note on Hits: 1
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. On a current-policy basis, the analysis finds that expenditure growth has the potential to significantly exceed revenue growth Hits: 1
Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf issues, proposals or policies.  Our role today is to provide general data and background. • With the exception of making five-year projections of General Fund appropriations under current law, the office has not performed its own analysis of pension funding Hits: 1
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf June 15. • Administration: end of June (certified estimate).  II. The Economic and Budget Outlook. • Independent Fiscal Office: November 15. • Five-year projections, focus is on long-term trends.  III. The Mid-Year Updates. • Administration (December) and Ind. Fiscal Office Hits: 1
Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf issues, proposals or policies.  Our role tonight is to provide general data and background. • With the exception of making five‐year projections of General Fund appropriations under current law, the office has not performed its own analysis of pension funding Hits: 1
Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf issues, proposals or policies.  Our role today is to provide general data and background. • With the exception of making five‐year projections of General Fund appropriations under current law, the office has not performed its own analysis of pension funding Hits: 1
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Special studies at request of General Hits: 1
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf General Inflation 2.0% 2.0% (3) Healthcare Premium n.a. 1.5% TOTAL ANNUAL FACTOR 2.3% 6.0% Five‐Year Cumulative Growth 12.0% 33.8% IFO Expenditure Projections May 13, 2016 15 May 13, 2016 16 Revenues and Hits: 1
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. 2 Hits: 1
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf in 20-64 year olds.  Labor force participation rates must increase.  Will there be enough workers over next five years? Moderate growth of historical cost drivers after 19-20.  Pension systems achieve annual returns of 7.25%.  Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf Budget Plan  The building blocks of the agency’s budget are the agency activities.  Covered fiscal years include five actual years, plus the current year (2018-19). Traditional Agency Budget Request  The building blocks of the agency’s Hits: 1
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf 13,276 473 3.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center. May 24, 2017 4 The Five Generations Age in PA (000s) U.S. 2015 Number Share Share Diff Gen Z <10 1,451 11.3% 12 Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf FY 18-19, visitation averaged 565,000 | About 40% were from out-of-state ▪ In FY 18-19, the top five sites accounted for 74% of visitors (Lancaster, Erie, Allegheny, Centre counties) PHMC administers federal and state historic programs and tax Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf 0 but relatively low April 26, 2021 3 Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) Investment in distressed communities | $36 million annual cap ▪ Five separate components generally encourage donations to nonprofits ▪ EZP component incentivizes for-profit investment in distressed areas ▪ Credit 55-80% of Hits: 1
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf funds are available to meet the Commonwealth’s future transit, road and bridge needs. The remainder of this report contains five sections. Section II presents the economic and demographic forecasts used for this analysis. Section III discusses previous research on toll Hits: 1
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf 20. Recent collections have been impacted by 2015 legislation that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property from five to three years. After an initial influx of collections, the shortened holding period dramatically increased claims by facilitating the return of unclaimed Hits: 1
NGQU_2023_Q1.pdf billion cubic feet, a decrease of 5.6% from the prior year. This metric has steadily declined over the last five quarters and reached the lowest level since monthly production data became available (2015) in the first quarter. ▪ There were 120 Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q4.pdf percent) from the prior year. Figure 4 displays the number of horizontal wells spud in each quarter over the last five calendar years. There were 117 horizontal wells spud in the fourth quarter of 2019, a decrease of 83 wells (-41 Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q3.pdf from the prior year. Figure 4 displays the number of new horizontal wells spud in each quarter over the last five calendar years. There were 132 new horizontal wells spud in the third quarter of 2019, a decrease of 39 wells Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q2.pdf the prior year. Figure 4 displays the number of new hori- zontal wells spud in each quarter over the last five calendar years. There were 163 new horizontal wells spud in the second quarter of 2019, a decrease of 50 wells Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q1.pdf the previous quarter. Figure 4 displays the number of new hori- zontal wells spud in each quarter over the last five calendar years. For the first quarter of 2019, there were 198 new horizontal wells spud, an increase of 3 wells Hits: 1
NGPR-2018Q4.pdf from the previous quarter. Figure 4 displays the number of new horizontal wells spud in each quarter over the last five calendar years. For the fourth quarter of 2018, there were 200 new horizontal wells spud, which is an increase of Hits: 1
NGPR-2018Q3.pdf from the previous quarter. Figure 4 displays the number of new horizontal wells spud in each quarter over the last five calendar years. For the third quarter of 2018, there were 171 new horizontal wells spud, which is a decrease of Hits: 1
NGPR-2017Q2.pdf well types. Among the top-ten producing states, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first five months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Four states (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Colorado) registered declines Hits: 1
NGPR-2016Q4.pdf well types. For 2016, Pennsylvania and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year gains (9.7% and 48.5%, respectively). Five states (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico) registered declines. Independent Fiscal Office 6 March 2017 - Natural Gas Production Report Hits: 1
NGPR-2016Q3.pdf through August 2016. Pennsylvania and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year gains (11.4 and 58.4 percent, respectively). Five states (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico) registered declines in production. Independent Fiscal Office 6 November 2016 - Natural Gas Hits: 1
NGPR-2016Q2.pdf through May 2016. Pennsylvania and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year gains (12.8 and 72.3 percent, respectively). Five states (Texas, Alaska, Louisiana, Wyoming and New Mexico) registered modest declines in production. Independent Fiscal Office 6 August 2016 - Natural Hits: 1
NGIFE-2015.pdf 2015 impact fee schedule will decrease by $5,000 per well for wells in operating years one, two, four and five. This is the result of the annual average price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange ($2.66 Hits: 1
MTR-2017-11.pdf released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first five months of FY 2017 -18, total General Fund revenues were $203.1 million (1.8 percent) above the IFO’s Hits: 1
MTR-2017-07.pdf similar trends in personal income. However, Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia had below average personal income growth over the past five years due to lower net earnings growth (2.0%, 2.2% and 1.1%, respectively). There are several factors that Hits: 1
MTR-2017-04.pdf a high school diploma are more likely to remain close to home. The graph confirms this trend, as the top five states where PA graduates migrated (California, New York, North Carolina, New Jersey and Maryland) contain large urban areas or are Hits: 1
MTR-2016-09.pdf 3.30 in the second quarter of 2016. Preliminary data for the third quarter suggest a slight recovery of approximately five to ten cents per gallon. Looking forward, the Global Dairy Market Outlook projects that dairy prices will be volatile, but Hits: 1
MTR-2015-11.pdf rate of 3.1% per annum over the same time period. The figure below displays Pennsylvania export data for the five largest commodities, all other commodities and average annual growth rates (AAGR) from 2005 to 2015. The data represent the total Hits: 1
MTR-2015-09.pdf years 2012 and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania, more than five million federal tax returns were matched between the two years. The database of matched returns allows the IRS to identify Hits: 1
MRU-2020-09.pdf 2 percent). Due to the passage of a partial-year budget, the IFO will delay the release of its regular five-year economic and budget outlook in mid-November. In its place, the office will release an updated economic and revenue Hits: 1
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates are based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on January 21, 2021, which includes adjustments to Hits: 1
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf 15, 2018 and concluding by July 31, 2018. Subsequent auctions were permitted through December 31, 2019, but only five licenses were sold. A license originally awarded in February 2018 was later denied by the PGCB and only four Category 4 licenses Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf an overall monthly rental price in Pennsylvania of $1,129, an 11.5% increase from the prior year (based on five metro areas, weighted average for studios to 4 bedroom apartments). Rents in Philadelphia increased 12.4% on a year-over- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf and analysts are evaluating whether high rates will have a material impact on home sales and prices. This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: ▪ Number of Homes Listed Number of homes listed for sale during the month by the National Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdf informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdf have nearly doubled, and analysts are evaluating how long higher rates will impact home sales and prices. This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: ▪ Number of Homes Listed Number of homes listed for sale during the month by the National Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows:  Change in Payroll Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows:  Change in Payroll Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf and analysts are evaluating whether higher rates will have a material impact on home sales and prices. This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: ▪ Number of Homes Listed Number of homes listed for sale during the month by the National Hits: 1
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf by $224 million ($57 million for the first seven months of the fiscal year and $167 million for the final five months). 28.Jan.2015 16 Estimate Comparison Fiscal Year Estimate IFO DOR Difference General Fund ‐ Total $29,957 $30,181 Hits: 1
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf food service, administra- tion-waste management (e.g., temporary workers and building maintenance services) and healthcare-social assistance. For its five-year outlook report released in January 2021, the IFO had projected that payroll employment would need six years to surpass Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf offset the estimated 11 percent gain in production. Table 3 displays the annual ETR and its components over the last five years. Table 3: Impact Fee Annual Effective Tax Rates Calendar Impact Fee Unconventional Price of Market Annual Year Revenues Production Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf Chairman Galloway and members of the committee. I appreciate the opportunity to submit material for this hearing. This submission includes five tables that are also included in the hearings packet transmitted by the IFO to the House Appropriations Committee. The tables Hits: 1
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf contributions were backed out and forecasted separately.  Pensions added back to get total expenditures for each of the next five fiscal years. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 18 15.Nov.2012 Demographic Projections  Reduction in residents under age Hits: 1
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf increased 5 percentage points for ages 18 to 25 and 7 percentage points among those 26 and older over a five-year period. In Oregon, adult use increased from 11% to 19% between 2014 and 2017 and from 18% to 31% Hits: 1
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf Specific Mandated Duties  Per Act 120 of 2010:  Initial (May 1) and Official (June 15) revenue estimate.  Five-Year Outlook Report (November 15).  Annual Revenue Conference (January 31).  Two Studies: (1) Sales and Use Tax, (2 Hits: 1
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf Corp 3% REAP Awards by Entity Type (2019) Source: Pennsylvania State Conservation Commission. State Comparison Chesapeake Bay Program ▪ Pennsylvania and five other states (plus D.C.) are part of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement ▪ Sets a “total maximum daily load” for Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Annual Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Report and both presentations will be posted to IFO website at conclusion. ▪ Questions will be Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Welcome to the Annual Five-Year Outlook Report to be posted at IFO website at end of presentation Both presentations run ~45 minutes – questions at Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf a Forecast. A Controlled Simulation.  What happens if PA economy has “normal” growth?  Assumes no recession over next five years. No New State or Federal Policy Changes.  But, the Governor must bring budget into balance.  What about Hits: 1
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf that the average balance for borrowers in the lowest income quartile increased by 21.7%. This growth was more than five percentage points higher than any other income group in the analysis. The average balance of $2,409 was the highest Hits: 1
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf as an update to its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report in Novem- ber. However, due to the partial-year budget, the IFO has postponed release of Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2023.pdf the virtual briefing. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. Long term issues that impact the outlook include the expiration of federal relief programs, a rapidly expanding 75 Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf the virtual briefing. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Phillip Swagel, Director CBO Hits: 1
Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdf of U.S. borrowers that entered into serious delinquency across all debt sources for the fourth quarter of the last five years. Based on available data, it is not possible to link borrowers who are taking on new debt with those Hits: 1
Announcement_2021.pdf unspent federal stimulus? The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. The presentation will examine Hits: 1
ACN_SB1_technical_corrections_2017_06_05.pdf 25 years of service credit. • On page 5, added that the final average salary for SERS would apply to the five highest calendar years of compensation. Also on page 5, clarified that the final average salary limitation on voluntary overtime pay Hits: 1
2019-Pub-2.pdf The IFO will present the results from its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Katherine Loughead, Tax Foundation Hits: 1
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf Monies shifted from finals to quarterlies Cigarette -10 Unusual recent weakness Gaming Expansion 85 Pick up from first two auctions; five assumed Loan-Lease-Transfers -67 $300 original lease-transfers, revised down to $233 All Other 91 Inheritance +$40, VW Settlement Hits: 1
2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf staff on the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures and revenues over the next five fiscal years. Guest Presenter: Ray Landis, Advocacy Manager AARP Pennsylvania Presentation on retirement insecurity and the challenges facing Baby Boomers Hits: 1
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf roughly $190 to $355 million in impact fee revenue, with approximately 50 percent of the funds received during the first five years of production. 5 For FY 2012-13, the impact fees generated $406 mil- lion in revenue, split between wells Hits: 1
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf individual who mows their own lawn. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) esti- mates GDP and revises their methodology every five years to better reflect economic activity. The latest revisions, which occurred in July 2013, in- clude statistical and definitional changes Hits: 1
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf multiplier effect” could generate roughly $2.5 billion in additional output. However, this additional economic impact could take up to five years to fully manifest itself. 4 IHS Global Insight projects Pennsylvania gross state product will equal $760 billion by 2018 Hits: 1
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current year and the succeeding five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with Hits: 1
Right-to-Know Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email Address: righttoknow@ifo.state.pa.us You should receive a reply to your written request within five business days, pursuant to Section 901 of Act 3 of 2008. Right-to-Know Request Form IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Apr 17) Over last 4 years, latest data show number of PA payroll workers age 65+ increases 17%, compared to 0.4% for all workers. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.twitter.com/pZu9KIeUlF • (Apr 10) Healthcare, government and food service jobs drive 2024 PA job gains. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.twitter.com/iIP86Qgakd • (Apr 05) The IFO presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. See: ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?f… pic.twitter.com/ZfvyAsqjEk Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width Hits: 1