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PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage Growth

Using the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds historic wage gains for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. The brief notes that employee compensation comprises 56% of final sales and firms will likely push most labor costs forward to final consumers, thereby putting upward pressure on prices and inflation.

 

Tags: growth, wage

PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage growth

Using the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds historic wage gains for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. The brief notes that employee compensation comprises 56% of final sales and firms will likely push most labor costs forward to final consumers, thereby putting upward pressure on prices and inflation.  

11/03/2021

County Income Patterns

This research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

08/10/2021

County Income Patterns

This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

06/10/2020

Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19

The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy.

04/08/2020

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25.

02/06/2020

County Income Patterns

This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

08/30/2019

SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.  

03/18/2019

School District Property Tax Forecast

This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property.  Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23.

01/18/2018

Responsiveness of State Tax Revenues to Economic growth

In response to a legislative request, the IFO compared the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states.

12/26/2017

Pennsylvania Lottery: Historical Data and Interstate Comparisons

Demographic projections suggest that demand for programs and services funded by lottery revenues will grow at a rate that exceeds the expansion of the Pennsylvania economy. Therefore, an important issue for policymakers is whether lottery revenues can maintain recent growth rates so they will be sufficient to meet those demands. This report provides data to assist policymakers in those deliberations.

01/30/2014

Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

by Age Group ...................................................................................................... 5 Pennsylvania Population Distribution ................................................................................ 7 Dependency Ratios Decline .............................................................................................. 8 Components of Population Change ................................................................................... 9 Population Growth Across States .....................................................................................13 Section 3: Economic Outlook .............................................................................................. 15 Employment Trends .......................................................................................................17 Wage Trends .................................................................................................................18 Consumer Trends ..........................................................................................................19 Housing Trends .............................................................................................................20 Section 4: Revenue Outlook ............................................................................................... 21 Revenue Versus Economic Growth ..................................................................................22 Personal Income Tax .....................................................................................................24 Sales and Use Tax .........................................................................................................25 Corporate Net Income Tax .............................................................................................26 Gross Receipts Tax ........................................................................................................27 Realty Transfer Tax

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

funds ($531 million) and delayed tax payments shifted into the year ($1.9 billion). The analysis also projects flat income growth for the current calendar year as various federal relief programs end and consumer spending slows. From FY 2021-22 to 2025- 26. The projections do not represent a formal economic forecast, but rather a controlled simulation. They assume that economic growth is consistent with full employment, historical labor productivity gains and inflation expectations. The economic simulation provides a neutral baseline that

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

substantial federal mon- ies in FY 2020-21. For FY 2022-23, expenditures increase by 7.1% due to strong growth in healthcare programs and the reversion of the federal Medicaid matching rate to pre-COVID levels. From FY 2022-23 to FY 2026-27, expenditures expand at an average rate of 3.0% per annum. Overall growth is restrained by low growth in employer pension contributions. When combined with available revenues, the projected operating deficit peaks in

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

Outlook For 2019 and 2020, the U.S. Economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic growth, stable wage gains and moderate inflation. (See Table 1.1.) For Pennsylvania, the economic forecast by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

Outlook For 2019 and 2020, the U.S. economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic growth, stable wage gains and moderate inflation. (See Table 1.1 .) For Pennsylvania, the economic forecast by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

condition during the next five fiscal years. Highlights and conclusions are as follows: Economic Trends The economic forecast projects moderate growth. In particular: • Real growth remains modest for the US (2.0 percent) and the Commonwealth (1.6 percent) for 2012. • Unemployment remains elevated for

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on economic growth for calendar years (CY) 2020 and 2021. For most of 2020 Q1, nearly all national and state economic metrics exhibited solid growth on a year-over-year basis. 1 However, on February 29, 2020, the first U.S. death attributable to the COVID-19

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on economic growth for calendar years (CY) 2020 and 2021. For most of 2020 Q1, nearly all national and state economic metrics exhibited solid growth on a year-over-year basis. 1 However, on February 29, 2020, the first U.S. death attributable to the COVID-19

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

revenue sources require forecasts of one or more economic variables. The Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reductions enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of updated May 2018 forecast. The com- parison shows:  An upward revision to 2017 and 2018 real GDP growth.  Lower consumer price inflation in 2017 and 2018.  A downward revision to 2016 wage growth, but stronger growth for 2018

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

revenue sources require forecasts of one or more economic variables. The Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reduction enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of the June 2018 forecast. The com- parison shows:  An upward revision to 2017 and 2018 real GDP growth.  Lower consumer price inflation in 2017 and 2018.  A downward revision to 2016 wage growth, but stronger growth for 2018

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RB-2017-5.pdf

State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Responsiveness of Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction This analysis responds to a request submitted by a member of the General Assembly to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The analysis compares the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 1

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

3.5% 2.7% Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Note: Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by 17, 2021) at https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2021-13.pdf. Economic Outlook | Page 3 ▪ Wage and salary growth turned positive in 2020 Q4 and will expand by nearly 14% relative to 2020 Q2 during the height of mitigation

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

All forecasts by IFO. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Note: Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Economic Outlook | Page 2 The forecast assumes continued recovery from the significant contraction in calendar year (CY 17, 2021) at https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2021-13.pdf. Economic Outlook | Page 3 ▪ Wage and salary growth turned positive in 2020 Q4 and will expand by nearly 12% relative to 2020 Q2 during the height of mitigation

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

from 45,800 in 2014.  Relative to income, consumer debt levels have declined dramatically during the past decade. Moreover, growth in student loan debt shows recent signs of slowing.  A solid housing market. Data suggest that existing home sales corresponding amount in the FY 2016‐17 Executive Budget. Three factors motivate the upward revision to revenues:  Very strong growth in PIT estimated payments. Through the first seven months of the fiscal year, these payments are up 17.0 percent

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

accelerate. 6 Gasoline prices have recovered from a decade low. Stock markets achieve steady gains. 7 Pennsylvania economic and employment growth slower than U.S. and adjacent states. 8 Demographic Outlook From 2015 to 2025, the Pennsylvania working age population will contract by 181,000. 9 Pennsylvania population growth is slower than U.S. and adjacent states. 10 Revenue Outlook Through January 2017, the base growth rate of General

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

accelerate. 6 Gasoline prices have recovered from a decade low. Stock markets achieve steady gains. 7 Pennsylvania economic and employment growth slower than U.S. and adjacent states. 8 Demographic Outlook From 2015 to 2025, the Pennsylvania working age population will contract by 181,000. 9 Pennsylvania population growth is slower than U.S. and adjacent states. 10 Revenue Outlook Through January 2017, the base growth rate of General

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

year. Earned Income Tax The text that follows describes the methodology and data sources used to make projections for the growth rate of the two components of the EIT base (wages and net profits) from 2019 Q4 to 2021 Q1. As projections are made at the county level, although counties do not receive EIT revenues.  For 2019 Q4, the wage growth rate is based on actual county-level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the Quarterly

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

0.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Oct-16 $2,235 $2,231 $4 Growth 4.8% 5.8% -81.7% FYTD $8,849 $8,786 $63 Growth -0.2% 0.2% -38.7% Dollar amounts are in millions. RECENT TRENDS IN WAGE INCOME Wages and salaries earned

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

 Special focus on healthcare and pensions.  Guest speaker: Ms. Katharine Witgert (NASHP).  Revenue Outlook  Where will growth come from? The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 2 15.Nov.2012 Some Questions  What implications do broad demographic year policy is maintained all future years.  Provide same relative funding levels controlling for (1) inflation and (2) demographic growth.  Assume tax law does not change.  Only two factors change.  Economic growth (GDP, wages, unemployment rates). 

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

Comparison of Components of Change in Border States ................................................................. 11 Regional and National Population Trends ............................................................................... 13 Pennsylvania County Population Growth Over Time ....................................................................... 13 Regional Share of Residents Age 65 and Older .............................................................................. 15 Population Growth Across States.................................................................................................. 17 Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 19 - This page intentionally left blank. - Introduction and Methodology | Page 1 Introduction and Methodology Section 604-B (a

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

501.6 502.6 531.0 553.2 557.8 582.9 612.7 638.6 664.6 Growth Rate -1.9% -2.8% 5.4% 3.4% 6.9% 0.2% 5.7% 4.2% 0.8% 4.5% 5 94.7 103.6 109.1 114.7 116.5 120.9 120.8 124.9 129.8 Growth Rate 0.2% -5.4% 3.6% -1.7% 6.4% 9.4% 5.2% 5.3% 1.6% 3.7% -0

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

Year ......................................... 4 Recent Pennsylvania Economic Trends ..................................................................... 5 Actual and Projected Federal Relief for Pennsylvania ................................................. 6 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth Rates ........................................................... 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ........................................................................ 8 Net Domestic Migration Trends ................................................................................ 9 PA Labor Force Participation Rates ......................................................................... 10 Fiscal Year to self-employed. Age Group 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Total YOY Employment Growth 2019 Q4 3.7% -0.3% 0.9% 1.8% -1.6% 0.7% 6.2% 0.8% 2020 Q1

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

will subject profits to tax that have little or no economic connection to the state and constrain economic growth. They also assert that the filing method will introduce significant administrative complexity. Determination of the unitary group is a key component of net tax base expansion attributable to the enactment of combined reporting. The test compares the difference in average growth rates for private state GDP and CNIT revenues for three combined reporting states, 11 control states and the United States from 2006

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office May 20, 2019 Main Themes PA economy performs as expected in 2018  GDP, wage and jobs growth close to forecast Other factors drive large revenue gains for FY 2018-19  Taxation of internet sales (permanent gain temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor market and consumer sales May 20, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections May 20, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP June 2018 0.6% 1.8%

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

will increase to $628.8 billion in 2020 (0.4 percent) and $628.9 billion in 2021 (no growth). 1 See “SOI Tax Stats – Historic Table 2” (IRS). 2 The “tax gap” is the difference between actual collections and the amounts 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Revenue $977 $927 $912 $1,262 $1,198 $1,119 $922 $881 Growth Rate -4.6% -5.1% -1.7% 38.4% -5.0% -6.6% -17.6% -4.4% Note: Figures in dollar millions

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

52,240 per capita, a 4.0% year-over-year increase. (See table.) The majority of this gain comes from growth in net earnings income, after weak growth in the first quarter of 2016. The weak growth in that quarter may be due to the two major snowstorms

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MER-2015-06.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May 1, 2018 Today’s presentation.  PA economy: growth appears to accelerate recently.  FY 17-18: hitting estimate except for JUA transfer.  FY 18-19: moderately strong tax revenue growth. Final estimate to be released June 15.  May and June: large CNIT payments.  Will sales tax maintain recent

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NGPR_2020_Q4.pdf

of 2.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019, a stabilization after eight consecutive quarters of deceleration. Fourth quarter growth was driven by production in December, which grew by 6.3 percent year-over-year. For calendar year 2020, production grew by 3.9 percent from 2019, the lowest such growth rate on record for a full year of production. There were 99 new horizontal wells spud in the fourth quarter

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NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf

Table 1). This output represents an increase of 2.0 percent from the third quarter of 2019, the lowest such growth rate on record. Year-over-year production growth has decelerated over the last five quarters after very strong gains from the first quarter of 2018 to the second

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NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf

This output represents an increase of 2.8 percent from the second quarter of the prior year, the lowest such growth rate in over three years. Year- over-year growth in production has decelerated over the last four quarters after recording very strong gains from the first quarter of 2018

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

Outlook.  Solid labor market, but consumption tepid. Budget Outlook.  Revenue and expenditures. Pensions. Gaming. General Fund Balance Sheet Growth Rates 13-14 14-15 15-16 14-15 15-16 Beginning Balance 1 $547 $84 $257 Current Year Revenues 5% 3.0% School 0-19 Working 20-64 Retired 65+ Total 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 average annual growth rate October 19, 2017 8 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

544.4 571.0 599.6 624.7 691.3 716.9 700.3 730.1 759.9 790.3 Growth Rate 5.3% 3.4% 7.0% 0.2% 5.5% 4.4% 0.5% 4.9% 5.0% 4 116.2 121.7 122.1 126.4 131.4 136.9 141.6 147.4 153.6 160.0 Growth Rate 3.6% -1.7% 6.4% 9.4% 5.2% 5.3% 1.6% 4.6% 0.4% 3

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NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf

This output represents an increase of 6.8 percent from the first quarter of the prior year, the lowest such growth rate in over two years. Year-over-year growth in production has decelerated over the last three quarters after recording very strong gains from the first quarter of 2018

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

labor market posts solid gains.  Recent U.S. data confirm weak PA trends: 2017 Q1 Real GDP +0.7% growth, +0.3% consumer spending. The Revenue Forecast.  All forecasts except tobacco and IPT underperform.  Base growth rate for FYTD is negative (-1.0%).  Net revenue gains from transfers / tax law changes. The Big Picture 2

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NGPR_2021_Q4.pdf

Full-year production increased by 6.8% from the prior year, a notable uptick from the weaker-than-usual production growth for 2020 (4.0%). Despite the increase from prior year growth, the rate of 6.8% still represents a deceleration from pre-pandemic rates. From 2016 to 2019, horizontal production volume

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NGPR_2021_Q3.pdf

see Table 1). This output represents an increase of 6.8% from the third quarter of 2020. The third quarter growth was largely driven by September production, which grew by 11.3% from September 2020. This is the strongest year-over-year growth for a month of production since July 2019. Production through September was 6.7% higher than the same period in

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NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf

represents an increase of 5.4% from the first quarter of 2020, a clear acceleration after several quarters of moderate growth. There were 133 new horizontal wells spud in the first quarter of 2021. This figure represents a decrease of 20 2021 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Production 1,774 1,767 1,718 1,765 1,827 1,863 Growth Rate 7.6% 6.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 5.4% New Wells Spud 117 153 113 111

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

Market ...................................................................... 11 General Fund Financial Statement Comparison .............................................................................. 12 FY 2019-20 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 13 FY 2020-21 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 14 Growth of Top 3 Revenue Sources ....................................................................................................... 15 Impact of Federal Changes on Tobacco Taxes ................................................................................. 16 Lottery Sales and Net Revenues ............................................................................................................ 17 research duties. Office currently employs 13 full-time staff. 5 Pennsylvania Economic Trends 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Macro Growth Rates Real GDP 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% Wages and Salaries 4.1%

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NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf

1). This output represents an increase of 7.8% from the second quarter of 2020, the strongest year-over-year growth for a quarter in nearly two years. The second quarter growth was largely driven by June production, which grew by 10.0% from June 2020. Year-over-year growth in quarterly

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

2016 4 Some Important Caveats Not Exactly a Forecast. A Controlled Simulation.  What happens if PA economy has “normal” growth?  Assumes no recession over next five years. No New State or Federal Policy Changes.  But, the Governor must Need not happen. It is an assumption.  Policymakers control that outcome. 11/15/2016 5 Converge to “Normal” Economic Growth 11/15/2016 6 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

0.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Dec-16 $2,618 $2,581 $37 Growth -3.9% -4.3% 27.5% FYTD $13,455 $13,308 $147 Growth 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. STATE GDP CONTRACTS The U.S. Bureau of Economic

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

for FY 2016-17.  Revenue forecast for FY 2017-18. Theme: What is driving weakness?  Base General Fund growth rate is ~0.0%.  Both economic and technical factors are cause.  Inflation, business spending and consumers. No public But will be posted to IFO website. 25.Jan.2017 2 IFO Mid-Year Update 25.Jan.2017 3 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP Jun 2016 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% Jan 2017 2

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

to-date revenues and compares them to the same period of the prior year. Presents three-month and twelve-month growth rate trends. • Monthly Economic Report. A concise listing of the latest economic releases for Pennsylvania and the U.S. Revenue us. 3 Independent Fiscal Office – Summary of Revenue Estimates FY 2013-14 IFO Official Revenue Estimate ($ millions) Revenue Source Estimate Growth General Fund - Total $29,154 1.8% Corporate Net Income 2,460 1.5% Sales and Use 9,239 3

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

are derived from the publication outlining the quarterly projections. FY 2012-13 IFO Official Revenue Estimate ($ millions) Revenue Source Estimate Growth Total General Fund $28,510 3.0% Corporate Net Income 2,257 11.6% Sales and Use 9,179 4.6% Personal Income 11,220 3.9% All Other 5,854 -3.8% * 1.5% growth rate for “all other” if the capital stock and franchise tax is excluded. Comparison of Actual Collections to Estimate ($ millions

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

PIT and SUT) offset losses (CNIT and GRT).  ~$200 million short: non-receipt of JUA transfer.  Tax revenue growth: 16-17 (+1.6%) | 17-18 (+3.9%). FY 18-19: tax revenue growth of +4.2%.  Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy.  Corporate base expansion enhances revenues.  Tight

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

PTC nor does it address the general fiscal condition of the PTC. The report provides annual toll revenue projections and growth rates based on multiple scenarios. The report discloses all assumptions used to project toll revenues on the Pennsylvania Turnpike, as forecast from IHS Global Insight and the demographic forecast from the Pennsylvania State Data Center. Table 1 lists average annual growth rates for CY 2013 to CY 2024 for relevant forecasts. Pertinent results include:  Pennsylvania real gross state product (GSP

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

2.0%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue May-17 $2,582 $2,257 $325 Growth 32.8% 18.5% 719.7% FYTD $28,405 $27,527 $879 Growth 2.0% 1.1% 43.1% Dollar amounts are in millions. WHERE ARE PA CONSUMERS ? Recent data confirm a significant

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

0.7%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Mar-17 $4,422 $4,376 $46 Growth -1.4% -0.4% -51.1% FYTD $22,394 $22,055 $339 Growth 0.7% 0.7% -0.3% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA CONSUMER DEBT OUTPACES REGION The Federal Reserve Bank

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MER-2014-06.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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jackson ppt.pdf

will grow at a modest pace. • Business equipment investment and consumer durables, supported by replacement demand, are driving near-term growth. • Strained household finances will limit real consumption gains to about 2%. • Fiscal policies will tighten, although the timing and scope is uncertain. • A recovery in housing markets is key to more robust economic growth in 2013-15. • The Eurozone sovereign-debt crisis is the biggest threat to growth; we see a 30% risk of

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

See page 6 for the raw data and page 7 for a reference map of county names.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two informative and current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although two it should be noted that they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2016 to 2019, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.02% per annum. Figure 1 displays

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

1.0%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue June-16 $3,061 $3,031 $30 Growth 5.0% 3.8% 969.2% FYTD $30,902 $30,258 $644 Growth 1.0% 2.6% -41.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INCREASES In recent months, U.S. economic

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Forecast FY 2020-21 January 28, 2020 PA Economic Forecast: June 2019 vs January 2020 January 28, 2020 1 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP Jun 2019 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 79 S&P 500 Index (prior year) -6.2% 7.3% 8.2% 2.2% 29.5% Note: Real GDP growth rates are quarterly annualized rates. All others are year-over-year. Interest rates are levels. Corporate Domestic Profits for non-

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

Today’s Presentation June 7, 2017 2 Revenue Update for FY 2016-17. Negative (base) revenue growth through May. Revenue shortfall approaches ~$1.0 billion. Economic Update. Lots of jobs created, does not translate to spending. Weak spending yields minimal profits growth. Budget Proposals and Tax Burden Rankings. Deficit projections remain high (~$2.5 - $3.0 billion). PA state-local tax burden

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office June 11, 2019 Main Themes PA economy performed as expected in 2018  GDP, wage and jobs growth was close to forecast Other factors driving large revenue gains for FY 18-19  Taxation of internet sales (permanent expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor and housing markets June 11, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections June 11, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP June 2018 0.6% 1.8%

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

2.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Mar-16 $4,486 $4,392 $94 Growth 5.0% 4.3% 57.2% FYTD $22,240 $21,901 $340 Growth 2.4% 3.5% -39.3% Dollar amounts are in millions. BEA RELEASES EARNINGS FOR 2015 On March 24 th

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

Opponents assert that it subjects profits to tax that have little or no economic connection to the state, constrains economic growth and introduces significant administrative complexity. Determination of the unitary group is a key component of combined reporting and is generally the enactment of combined reporting. The outcome is detailed in Figure 1.2. The test compares the difference in average growth rates for private state gross domestic product (GDP) and CNIT revenues for three combined reporting states, 11 control states and

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REU-2019-12.pdf

the net job gains held steady.  For the fourth consecutive month, Pennsylvania retail sales continued to display unusually strong growth.  Growth in Pennsylvania personal income fell to 4.4 percent for 2019.3, the slowest growth since 2017.4. Growth in

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

of Labor Force and Participation Rates Important. • Income and Jobs Composition Changes. Expenditure and Revenue Implications. • Expenditures Affected by Population Growth in Groups. • Aging Populace Contributes to Tax Base Erosion. 3 Today’s Presentation 12.May.2016 Demographic Trends All Projections Projected to Decline Demographic Wave: Retirements Next Decade 4 12.May.2016 Number of Residents Gain or Loss Avg. Ann. Growth Age 2005 2015 2025 2005‐15 2015‐25 2005‐15 2015‐25 0‐19 3,226 3,062 ‐164 ‐0

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

measures expire. Mainly affects Department of Human Services. Ramp up of debt obligations (Tobacco MSA bond). Bright spot: pension contribution growth flat or moderate. March 1, 2019 3 Structural Imbalance in General Fund March 1, 2019 4 Fiscal Year ($ billions) 18- 22 22-23 23-24 Net Revenues + Lapses $33.0 $33.9 $35.2 $36.3 $37.1 $38.3 growth rate 2.7% 3.7% 3.1% 2.1% 3.4% Expenditures + Supplementals -$33.4 -$35.6 -$36.7 -$37

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

1.1 29 0.74 34 United States 3.9 -- 1.8 -- 0.76 -- Unemployment Rate and Jobs Growth Source: Employment data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Working age data from U.S. Census Bureau. Calculations by the IFO ratio of employment to the working age population (ages 20-64) in 2018. Note: AAGR is average annual growth rate. States listed based on total population. Job Growth and Participation (2013-18) Unemployment (2018) Minority % of Population % Minority-Owned Businesses (2016

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NGPR-2017Q2.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 2 Second Quarter 2017 Table 2: Number of Wells Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2017 Growth 2016 2017 Growth Producing Wells Horizontal 6,794 7,347 8.1% 6,847 7,409 8.2% Vertical 508 506 -0.4%

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NGPR-2017Q1.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 2 First Quarter 2017 Table 2: Number of Wells First Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2017 Growth 2016 2017 Growth Producing Wells Horizontal 6,605 7,187 8.8% 6,605 7,187 8.8% Vertical 504 491 -2.6%

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

2015 suggest that the dollar value of Pennsylvania exports to other countries will increase to $39.9 billion, an average growth rate of 6.0% per annum from 2005 ($22.3 billion). The export growth rate outpaced that of the Pennsylvania economy (measured by state gross domestic product), which grew at an average rate of

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MER-2013-12.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office | November 2019 1 Welcome Katherine Loughead | Tax Foundation  Modernizing PA Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner | Institute for Taxation & Economic Policy  Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office  Labor force expands despite decline in 20-64 year olds  Labor force participation rates must continue to increase Moderate growth of personnel cost drivers after FY 19-20  Personnel costs are 13% of state budget (excludes PSERS) State economy

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

7 Birth Trends .................................................................................................................................... 8 Decedent Trends ............................................................................................................................. 9 Domestic Migration Trends ............................................................................................................ 11 Regional and National Population Trends............................................................................... 13 Pennsylvania County Population Growth ......................................................................................... 13 Regional Share of Residents Age 65 and Older ................................................................................ 14 Population Growth Across States .................................................................................................... 15 Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 17 - This page intentionally left blank. - Introduction and Methodology | Page 1 Introduction and Methodology Section 604-

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

revenues received in fiscal year (FY) 2006‐07 and FY 2016‐17. The final three columns display the average annual growth rate of CNIT revenues and state private gross domestic product (GDP) during the decade, and the difference in average annual growth rates. 11 Academic research finds a strong and unambiguous positive relation between state CNIT rates and revenues, but other factors

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

Baby Boomers and Others. o Very long term: trends through 2040. Economic Implications o Labor Force, Income and Jobs Composition, Growth. Budget Implications o Persistent tax base erosion due to demographics. 12.June.2014 2 Today’s Presentation 12.June.2014 Total 282.2 309.4 0.9 333.9 0.8 100.0 100.0 Note: CAGR is compound annual growth rate. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Penn State Data Center. 12.June.2014 4 Annual Growth Rate: Ages 20-

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

19 Preliminary Forecast FY 2019-20 January 29, 2019 Forecast: June 2018 vs Jan 2019 January 29, 2019 1 Annual Growth or Change 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP Jun 2018 0.9% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% Jan 1% S&P 500 Index (prior qtr) -1.2% 2.9% 7.2% -14.0% 5.5% Notes: Real GDP growth rates are quarterly annualized rates. S&P 500 Index uses values from end of quarter. Value for 2019.1 is

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

1.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jan-17 $2,643 $2,569 $73 Growth 5.7% 5.6% 10.9% FYTD $16,097 $15,877 $220 Growth 1.2% 1.2% 4.8% Dollar amounts are in millions. PENNSYLVANIA HOME SALES STRONG Pennsylvania home sales continued a

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure offsets State budget ▪ What are the revenue trends? ▪ What is the longer-term outlook? Some miscellaneous budget topics border states? February 19, 2021 3 Pennsylvania Demographics February 19, 2021 4 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Annual Growth 2015 2020 2025 2030 15-20 20-25 25-30 15-20 20-25 25-30 0 to 19 3

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

No major correction in stock or housing markets May 26, 2021 2 Pennsylvania Economic Forecast May 26, 2021 3 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.4% -4.4% 3.6% 2.4% Philadelphia CPI-U Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FHFA. Forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Trends May 26, 2021 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Real GDP -34.0% 35.5% 3

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NGPR-2017Q3.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 2 Third Quarter 2017 Table 2: Number of Wells Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2017 Growth 2016 2017 Growth Producing Wells Horizontal 6,898 7,579 9.9% 7,022 7,645 8.9% Vertical 493 494 0.2%

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MER-2014-05.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

student loans, SNAP, rent assistance January 31, 2022 1 Economic Forecast: Stronger Wages and Inflation January 31, 2022 2 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Real GDP June 2021 2.4% -4.4% 3.8% 2.4% Business Administration and PA Department of Labor. Recent Quarterly Trends for PA Economics January 31, 2022 4 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 Real GDP -3.4% -0.3% 11

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

will subject profits to tax that have little or no economic connection to the state and constrain economic growth. They also believe that the filing method will introduce significant administrative complexity. Determination of the unitary group is a key component of 5 The analysis uses a relatively simple test for this purpose. The test compares the difference in average growth rates for private state GDP and CNIT revenues for CR states and 10 control states from 2005 to 2018. 4 5 Overall

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REU-2020-01.pdf

force participation. Net job gains held steady for the month.  Pennsylvania taxable retail sales continue to exhibit unusually strong growth largely driven by increases re- lated to expanded nexus under Act 43-2017 and the Wayfair decision.  The U level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth rate of advance retail sales based on latest three months of data. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

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REU-2019-10.pdf

OCTOBER 2019 Economic Trends  Pennsylvania year-over-year net job gains continued to decelerate in September.  Pennsylvania wage growth remains strong. Preliminary data for the third quarter (not shown) show similar trends.  U.S. Real GDP growth decelerated slightly due to weak business investment.  Pennsylvania retail sales showed exceptional strength in October. Some analysts believe this

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RB-2018-01.pdf

for FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report also incorporates recent IFO research regarding the property taxes paid by homesteads and 2022-23, which represent approximately 93 percent of receipts related to the school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) tax rate increases as limited under Act

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

2,980 Note: figures in dollar millions. Long-Term PA Economic Forecast 10.Feb.2017 5 Economic Metric Average Annual Growth Rates 2004-10 2010-16 2016-22 Real GDP 0.8% 1.7% 1.9% Wages and Salaries 2.8% Snapshot: 2015 to 2025 10.Feb.2017 7 Age Cohort Number of Residents(000s) Gain or Loss (000s) Avg. Annual Growth 2005 2015 2025 2005-15 2015-25 2005-15 2015-25 0-19 3,226 3,041 3,018 -185

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

2025.  Disclaimer: trends may not translate to all local units. Aging’s impact on the state economy.  Economic growth. Job Creation. Spending patterns.  Service sector jobs. Slower growth. Housing pressures. Transition to local unit trends.  Earned income tax and property tax.  Focus on wage growth. August

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

200,000 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Baby Boomers born 1946-64 2015 Snapshot +42% growth +80% increase Gen X Baby Bust -27% decrease U.S. Life Expectancy 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. II. Economic Trends  U.S. and PA economic growth downshifts.  Similar to Japan and Europe.  Much due to normal aging of population.  PA seniors working more

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NGPR-2017Q4.pdf

Volume (bcf) Independent Fiscal Office 2 Fourth Quarter 2017 Table 2: Number of Wells Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2016 2017 Growth 2016 2017 Growth Producing Wells Horizontal 7,069 7,775 10.0% 7,180 7,891 9.9% Vertical 502 493 -1.8%

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

9.6 million, 342.7 percent). For FY 2017-18, the IFO projected a 2.8 percent year-over-year growth rate for the General Fund, after accounting for certain technical factors that reduce revenue. 1 Through September, the actual year-over- year growth rate for the General Fund was 4.8 percent, with CNIT revenues showing robust growth. Revenue Update for FY 2017-

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

0.6%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue May-16 $1,944 $1,905 $40 Growth -0.9% 2.2% -59.6% FYTD $27,841 $27,227 $614 Growth 0.6% 2.5% -44.4% Dollar amounts are in millions. CONSUMER SPENDING TRENDS DIVERGE The U.S. Census Bureau

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

0.7%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Apr-16 $3,656 $3,422 $235 Growth -8.7% -3.8% -47.3% FYTD $25,897 $25,322 $574 Growth 0.7% 2.5% -42.9% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA HOUSING MARKET SOLID The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

Acquired or Closed Since 2006 n.a. 61 85 Market Size Deposits, Annual 1 $250.6 $285.8 $318.4 Growth Since 2006 2 n.a. 3.4% 3.1% Employment Employment, Annual 3 83.8 81.8 77.8 Change Statistics (Financial Activities, Depository Credit Intermediation, Pennsylvania). 1 Amounts in billions. Deposits attributed to Pennsylvania banking activity. 2 Annual average growth since 2006. 3 Thousands of payroll jobs. August 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Aug-15 $1

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  Expenditures significant growth due to one-time measures Analysis finds a ~$2.0 billion structural deficit  November 2019 IFO Outlook identifies a of presentation January 21, 2021 1 Pennsylvania Demographics January 21, 2021 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Annual Growth 2015 2020 2025 2030 15-20 20-25 25-30 15-20 20-25 25-30 0 to 19 3

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics and economy  Labor market still robust | consumers drive growth  Auto loan delinquencies at all time high | mortgage refis double State budget  What are the revenue trends?  is the market doing? February 28, 2020 3 PA Population Snapshot February 28, 2020 4 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth Age 2015 2020 2025 2015-20 2020-25 2015-20 2020-25 0 to 19 3,040 2,965 2

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

for FY 2022-23 through FY 2025-26 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1 PAGE 2 The estimate for FY 2021-22 collections is based on millage rates published by PDE and assumed economic growth. Economic growth is assumed to be 1.5% in FY 2021-22, which is somewhat higher than previous analyses, due

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

for FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school property taxes for FY 2018-19 2024-25, which comprise approximately 93 percent of receipts related to the school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) millage rate increases as limited under Act

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

for FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Table 1 provides a summary of the IFO’s estimate of school property taxes for estimated by IFO thereafter. Forecast Overview Independent Fiscal Office March 2019 2 school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) tax rate increases as limited under Act

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REU-2019-11.pdf

0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE NOVEMBER 2019 Economic Trends  The Pennsylvania unemployment rate ticked upward again in October, but wage growth remains strong.  After posting declines in June, July and August, Pennsylvania monthly net job gains (annualized) have held steady level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth rate of advance retail sales based on latest three months of data. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

available. (See page 4 for data sources and page 6 for a reference map of county names.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two of the best and most current measures of economic well-being at the county it should be noted that they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2015 to 2017, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.1 percent per annum. Figure 1

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

the Components of the Act 1 Index Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials March 17, 2021 Statewide School Property Tax Growth Rates 2 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 16-17 2021 moderate inflation strong jobs market Great Recession large ECI and SAWW disconnect another rare disconnect COVID-19 PA Macroeconomic Growth Rates: 2002 to 2022 5 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

offset by higher than expected collections ($38.1 million). For the first quarter of the fiscal year, total SUT base growth was 5.1 percent over the prior year, which excludes the impact of the one-time transfer. Monthly PIT collections is largely due to housing (3.2%) and medi- cal care (4.1%) inflation.  Recent data show strong wage growth for the U.S. (5.4%) and Pennsylvania (5.0%) in the second quarter. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

is a three-month average gain.)  Retail sales remains a bright spot for the Pennsylvania economy. Year-over-year growth in retail sales was strong in August (6.4%), but slower growth in June and July pulled down the three-month moving average. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

down $97 million. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Apr-18 $3,754 $3,554 $199 Growth 9.5% 10.6% -7.3% FYTD $29,027 $26,572 $2,456 Growth 12.4% 5.2% 343.5% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS April 2018 - INDEPENDENT

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

85 million). Gˎ˗ˎ˛ˊ˕ F˞˗ˍ S˗ˊ˙˜ˑ˘˝ General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Mar-18 $4,324 $4,289 $35 Growth -2.2% -2.0% -23.3% FYTD $25,273 $23,017 $2,256 Growth 12.9% 4.4% 566.3% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS March 2018 - INDEPENDENT

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

18 state budget. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Nov-17 $2,306 $2,159 $147 Growth 16.0% 11.2% 215.7% FYTD $11,414 $11,190 $224 Growth 5.3% 4.3% 104.4% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS NOVEMBER 2017 - INDEPENDENT

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

See table.) In 2015, Pennsylvania’s opioid overdose death rate was 11.2, up from 5.1 in 2010, a growth rate of 120 percent. The data imply that 1,433 Pennsylvania residents died from opioid overdoses in 2015, compared to Pennsylvania Opioid Crisis General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Aug-17 $2,129 $2,086 $43 Growth 5.6% 4.5% 119.5% FYTD $4,214 $4,149 $65 Growth 5.7% 5.6% 12.2% Dollar

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

0.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Aug-16 $2,015 $1,996 $20 Growth 7.9% 8.0% 0.2% FYTD $3,988 $3,930 $58 Growth -0.4% -0.4% 1.1% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA ELECTRICITY MARKET TRENDS The U.S. Energy Information

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

1.8%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Feb-16 $1,855 $1,819 $36 Growth 6.4% 5.7% 62.9% FYTD $17,754 $17,508 $246 Growth 1.8% 3.4% -50.8% Dollar amounts are in millions. U.S. CORPORATE PROFITS DECLINE According to the U

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

4% 40.9% Monthly Trends Report General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul 2015 $2,135 $2,097 $38 Growth -4.9% 5.1% -84.9% FYTD $2,135 $2,097 $38 Growth -4.9% 5.1% -84.9% Dollar millions. Growth from prior year. The Commonwealth collected $2.14 billion in General

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MER-2015-02.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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MER-2014-11.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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MER-2014-07.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

the certified number.) The IFO’s reduction was based on two factors: • At the mid-point in the fiscal year, growth rates for the General Fund and its key revenue sources were below the IFO’s expectations. • For the remainder of the fiscal year, it is unlikely that growth will reach the levels necessary to meet the IFO’s original estimate. Although we have reduced our estimate, it still

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

for FY 2021-22 through FY 2025-26 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. Forecast Overview Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school district property taxes for 20 current- year collections is based on individual school district tax rates published by PDE and an assumed tax base growth of 1 percent. Tax base growth is informed by taxable assessed values published by the State Tax Equalization Board (STEB

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

website. 29.Jan.2018 2 Welcome to the IFO Mid-Year Update Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 3 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP Jun 2017 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% Jan 2018 0 Jan 2018 52.2 60.4 61.8 60.1 Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised for 2016. Wage growth for 2017 based on withholding trends through December. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office May 26, 2020 Solid PA Growth Prior to Pandemic May 26, 2020 1 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Real GDP 2.1% 1.9% 2.3% n

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REU-2020-02.pdf

month to the lowest levels since the beginning of 2019.  Pennsylvania taxable retail sales continue to show unusually strong growth, climbing to 6.5% in February.  U.S. inflation accelerated in the fourth quarter. Sources and notes: 1. Source level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth rate of advance retail sales based on latest three months of data. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

from Pennsylvania State Data Center 3.Dec.2014 3 3.Dec.2014 Broad Demographic Trends 2010 2015 2020 Number Number Growth Number Growth PA (000s) 0 – 19 3,173 3,128 -1.4% 3,092 -1.2% 20 – 64 7,575 7,609

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate FYTD Revenues Through May 2018 Amount Change Growth General Fund $31,483 $3,078 10.8% Corporate Net Income 2,318 188 8.8% Gross Receipts 1,143 wages. Excludes indirect (dynamic) effects of tax cuts, which would manifest in later years. June.05.2018 3 PA Economic Growth Rates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP 2.0% 2.6% 0.9% 1.9% 2.3% Wages-Salaries

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. U.S.: Annual growth rate of advance retail sales based on latest three months of data. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. PA: Annual growth rate of sales tax revenues based on latest three months of data. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

the fiscal year. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jan-18 $3,137 $2,844 $293 Growth 18.7% 10.7% 299.4% FYTD $17,368 $16,824 $544 Growth 7.9% 6.0% 146.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS January 2018 - INDEPENDENT

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

5 billion). General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Feb-18 $3,581 $1,905 $1,677 Growth 91.0% 5.6% 2,218.3% FYTD $20,949 $18,728 $2,221 Growth 16.6% 5.9% 658.6% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS February 2018 - INDEPENDENT

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

the fiscal year. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Dec-17 $2,816 $2,790 $26 Growth 7.6% 8.1% -29.2% FYTD $14,231 $13,980 $251 Growth 5.8% 5.1% 70.6% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS December 2017 - INDEPENDENT

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

2.5%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue June-17 $3,264 $3,226 $38 Growth 6.7% 6.5% 27.3% FYTD $31,670 $30,753 $917 Growth 2.5% 1.6% 42.4% Dollar amounts are in millions. SERVICE SECTOR DRIVES JOB GAINS The Quarterly Census of

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

0.3%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Apr-17 $3,429 $3,214 $215 Growth -6.2% -6.1% -8.3% FYTD $25,823 $25,270 $554 Growth -0.3% -0.2% -3.6% Dollar amounts are in millions. MILLENNIAL MIGRATION IN PENNSYLVANIA The U.S. Census Bureau

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

1.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Feb-17 $1,875 $1,803 $72 Growth 1.1% -0.9% 102.6% FYTD $17,973 $17,680 $293 Growth 1.2% 1.0% 19.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA ELECTRICITY SOURCES CHANGING The U.S. Energy Information

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

1.5%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Nov-16 $1,987 $1,941 $47 Growth 9.9% 8.0% 298.7% FYTD $10,836 $10,727 $110 Growth 1.5% 1.6% -4.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. NATURAL GAS DRILLING JOBS DECLINE AS PRODUCTION INCREASES Employment

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

COLA in 2017. October 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Oct-15 $2,132 $2,109 $23 Growth -4.9% -4.6% -27.8% FYTD $8,868 $8,764 $103 Growth 0.1% 2.6% -66.8% Dollar amounts are in millions. Tax Revenue The Commonwealth collected $2.13 billion in

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

117 188,003 September 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Sept-15 $2,733 $2,710 $23 Growth 6.1% 5.7% 87.6% FYTD $6,736 $6,655 $80 Growth 1.8% 5.1% -71.2% Dollar amounts are in millions. Tax Revenue The Commonwealth collected $2.73 billion in

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

sales are $4.29 billion, an increase of 21% over the same period in FY 2019-20. Much of the growth in lottery game sales is likely explained by the federal stimulus distributed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which 2020-21 lottery sales through March are $742 million higher than the same period in FY 2019-20 (pre-pandemic). Growth in instant ticket (+$465 million, +19%) and iLottery (+$208 million, +25%) explain over 80% of increased sales. Pennsylvania Gaming Revenue

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

and Quarterly Revenue Estimates (December 2017)  Revenue Estimate Performance (December 2017)  Responsiveness of State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth (December 2017) 2  School District Property Tax Forecast (January 2018)  Increased Spending Allowed Under House Bill 110 (January Subtotal Operating Office Operations and Supplies Computers, Networks, and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis 4 U.S. Economic Trends Annual Growth Rate or Change AAGR or Average Change 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2000-06 2006-12 2012-18 Output and

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

Philadelphia CPI-U 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Annual Growth Rate or Change Note: Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S Wage Assistance) programs expire. 3 Pennsylvania Payroll Employment Table 1.3 displays the year-over-year change and growth rate of payroll employment (excludes self-em- ployed) for the months of April (peak job loss), July and September. The data show

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

R&D spending in Pennsylvania.  Attract new research and development firms to the Commonwealth.  Support the growth and expansion of R&D intensive sectors.  Promote technology clusters and economic agglomeration effects. 5 2 Act 7 of 1997 defines to sell those amounts. As noted by DCED, the original goal of the program was to “assist the growth and development of technology-oriented businesses, particularly small start-up businesses.” Firms can only sell unused RDTCs that exceed any collectible tax

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RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf

available. (See page 4 for data sources and page 6 for a reference map of county names.) Per capita income growth and levels provide policymakers with two informative and current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although the it should be noted that they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2016 to 2018, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.1 percent per annum. Figure 1

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

Economic and Revenue Outlook 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation • Solid Labor Market • Some Wage Weakness Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of 4% 20.4% 18.8% 13.5% Gasoline Prices ‐28.2% ‐28.0% ‐27.3% ‐18.0% Year‐ over‐year growth rates for respective quarters. The growth in wages and salaries is based on personal income tax withholding. The growth in

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office June 22, 2020 Solid PA Growth Prior to Pandemic June 22, 2020 1 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Real GDP 2.1% 1.9% 2.3% n

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NGPR-2019Q3.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Third Quarter 2019 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year 2018 2019 Growth 2018 2019 Growth Horizontal 1,568.6 1,713.1 9.2% 4,466.1 5,036.5 12.8% Vertical 2.6

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NGPR-2016Q3.pdf

report. Natural Gas Production Report Third Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Growth Number of Producing Wells Horizontal 6,897 6,104 13.0% 7,021 6,296 11.5% Vertical 495 503

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

FY 2017-18 General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Oct-17 $2,175 $2,160 $16 Growth -2.7% -3.2% 277.6% FYTD $9,108 $9,031 $77 Growth 2.9% 2.8% 22.6% Dollar amounts are in millions. MONTHLY TRENDS OCTOBER 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

121.2 million (-1.8%) from the prior year. General Tax Non-Tax Sept-16 $2,627 $2,625 $1 Growth -3.9% -3.1% -95.6% FYTD $6,614 $6,555 $59 Growth -1.8% -1.5% -26.6% Dollar amounts are in millions. WEAK GLOBAL DEMAND REDUCES DAIRY PRICES U.S. consumers

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

1.3%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jan-16 $2,499 $2,433 $66 Growth 4.2% 5.9% -34.7% FYTD $15,900 $15,689 $210 Growth 1.3% 3.1% -56.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. 2015 JOBS SURPASS 2007 LEVELS Calendar year 2015 marks

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

Philadelphia CPI-U Growth Decelerates in August On September 14, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released CPI-U data for August. The deceleration in Medical Care inflation from 2.8% in June to 0.0% in August. Also notable is the modest growth in monthly rents (2.6%) despite data from other sources that suggest strong growth (see article below) and no acceleration

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf

Two-Thirds of PA CPI-U Growth Due to Transportation and Shelter The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released Philadelphia CPI-U data for that the All Items CPI increased 7.3% compared to the prior year. The chart below displays the contribution to growth rates for certain components of All Items Philadelphia CPI. Of the 7.3% growth, nearly two-thirds was due to

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf

released December employment and average hourly earnings data for all states. The latest data reveal dramatically different outcomes for the growth of average hourly earnings across sectors of the state economy. The top line of the table below shows the year-over-year (YOY) growth in the nominal average hourly earnings for all private payroll workers for Pennsylvania. The data exclude government workers and self-

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MER-2015-03.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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MER-2014-08.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

8% 4.1% Corp Domestic Profits -3.5% -1.1% 2.3% 9.3% 6.6% -- -- -- -- -- Labor Market Net Jobs Growth 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 2% -- Auto Loan 9.7% 6.9% 4.8% 4.0% -- 7.6% 5.4% 3.1% 1.5% -- US - Growth Rate or Change PA - Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

annum.  PlanCon debt service phase-in. MLF funding shift begins. Long-term revenue potential is limited.  Continued modest growth of sales tax (+3.0%).  Other revenues declining (cigarette, -3.2%) or flat (GRT). Cost containment efforts improve alignment.  After FY 2017-18, revenues grow ~+3.2%, expenditures ~+3.5%.  Long-term growth rate gap lower than last year (~0.5%). November 16, 2017 6 Some Important Caveats Assume discretionary spending grows with

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

structural imbalance.  Origins date to the 2008-2009 financial crisis.  Persists even when PA economy returns to “normal” growth. Demographic trends and budget implications.  Aging populace.  Tax base erosion and expenditure cost-drivers. Short-term revenue outlook.  FY 2016-17 revenue shortfall.  Moderate growth rate projected for FY 2017-18. 7/14/2017 3 Post-Recession Budgets The 2008-2009 U.S. financial crisis

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

4, 2018 June.04.2018 2 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate FYTD Revenues Through May 2018 Amount Change Growth General Fund $31,483 $3,078 10.8% Corporate Net Income 2,318 188 8.8% Gross Receipts 1,143 wages. Excludes indirect (dynamic) effects of tax cuts, which would manifest in later years. June.04.2018 4 PA Economic Growth Rates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP 2.0% 2.6% 0.9% 1.9% 2.3% Wages-Salaries

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NGPR-2016Q4.pdf

throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Fourth Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Growth Number of Producing Wells Horizontal 7,066 6,295 12.2% 7,177 6,545 9.7% Vertical 502 502

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NGPR-2016Q2.pdf

report. Natural Gas Production Report Second Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Growth Number of Producing Wells Horizontal 6,793 5,947 14.2% 6,846 6,061 13.0% Vertical 510 510

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NGPR-2016Q1.pdf

report. Natural Gas Production Report First Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count First Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Growth Number of Producing Wells Horizontal 6,584 5,705 15.4% 6,584 5,705 15.4% Vertical 528 530

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

mini-casino auctions. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jun-18 $3,084 $2,988 $96 Growth -5.5% -7.4% 152.8% FYTD $34,567 $32,003 $2,564 Growth 9.2% 4.1% 179.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS June 2018 - INDEPENDENT

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MER-2015-04.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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MER-2015-01.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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MER-2014-12.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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MER-2014-03.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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IFO ppt.pdf

on website: www.ifo.state.pa.us • Modeling is simple and transparent. – Projections motivated by economics and demographics. – Focus on growth rates, not absolute levels. • Use FY 2011-12 as the “base year” for all projections. Assume “Current Policy.” Apply economic and demographic growth rates. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference The Economic Outlook • Recession continues to restrain

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

15, 2021 4 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update November 15, 2021 5 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-20 20-30 10-20 20-30 0 to 19 3,173 3,005 2,879 Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. High Inflation Impacts Sales Tax November 15, 2021 11 Year-Over-Year Growth in CPI-U for 2021 CPI-U April June Aug Oct Weight Philadelphia CPI-U - All Items 3.5% 4

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure offsets State budget ▪ What are the revenue trends? ▪ What is the longer-term outlook? Some miscellaneous budget topics 4, 2022 3 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update March 4, 2022 4 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-20 20-30 10-20 20-30 0 to 19 3,173 3,005 2,879

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

insight/20190313_quarterly_refinance_report.page. March 6, 2020 Page 2 Senator Haywood asked which Pennsylvania income groups have benefited from the recent growth in gross domestic product. To examine this issue, the IFO used data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American 2012 to 2018, the data reveal the following:  The number of households increased by 113,000, an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 0.4 percent per annum.  Total income increased by 3.5 percent per annum.  Both

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RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf

ECI data show the largest annual gain since publication of that series (2001) with 4.2% year-over-year (YOY) growth and 1.5% growth from the prior quarter (6.0% annualized). The total wages data show that wages paid in September grew 9.3%

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NGPR-2019Q4.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Fourth Quarter 2019 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2018 2019 Growth 2018 2019 Growth Horizontal 1,649.0 1,774.5 7.6% 6,115.1 6,815.0 11.4% Vertical 1.8

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NGPR-2019Q2.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Second Quarter 2019 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year 2018 2019 Growth 2018 2019 Growth Horizontal 1,456.3 1,667.2 14.5% 2,897.6 3,321.1 14.6% Vertical 1.8

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

the estimate by $348.8 million (3.2 percent) due to strength in non-motor and motor vehicle receipts (FY growth of 7.0 and 6.5 percent, respectively). June PIT collections were $31.4 million (2.7 percent) higher than G – š‰” F –Œ S–‰˜› —œ General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jun-19 $3,079 $3,080 ($1) Growth -0.2% 3.1% -101.1% FYTD $34,858 $34,056 $802 Growth 0.8% 6.4% -68.7% Dollar

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

extrapolate those gains forward to the rest of the fiscal year. The IFO does not anticipate that the first quarter growth in CNIT (31.6%) and SUT (8.9%) revenues can be sustained for the remainder of the fiscal year. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Sept-18 $3,041 $3,006 $35 Growth 11.9% 10.4% n.a. FYTD $7,554 $7,479 $74 Growth 9.0% 8.8% 20.4% Dollar

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

fiscal year. Gˎ˗ˎ˛ˊ˕ F˞˗ˍ S˗ˊ˙˜ˑ˘˝ General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue May-18 $2,456 $2,444 $12 Growth -4.9% 8.3% -96.2% FYTD $31,483 $29,015 $2,468 Growth 10.8% 5.4% 180.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS May 2018 - INDEPENDENT

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

Shelter index may provide the best measure of inflation for goods and services that consumers actually purchase. PA Total Wage Growth Accelerates Based on the latest four months of data, growth of wages paid to Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the state economy received a significant boost from the

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MER-2014-04.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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MER-2014-02.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

workers Independent Fiscal Office 5 February 2022 Economics – Inflation and General Economics Economics – Inflation and Recent Trends Year-Over-Year Growth Share Dec 19 Jun 20 Dec 20 Jun 21 Dec 21 Philadephia CPI-U 100% 2.4% 0.1% 1 0.9% 4.0% All Other 36% 3.0% -0.6% -1.3% 2.3% 3.3% Year-Over-Year Growth Average Hourly Earnings 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 All Private Workers Nominal 4

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf

2017 2018 2019 2020 Production (bcf) 4,069 4,596 5,094 5,364 6,123 6,822 7,163 Growth 31.1% 13.0% 10.8% 5.3% 14.2% 11.4% 5.0% New Wells Drilled 1,369 784 502 811 777 614 500 Growth 12.9% -42.7% -36.0% 61.6% -4.2% -21.0% -18.6% NYMEX Annual Price $4.42 $2

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

better means of identifying and ad- ministering them, and encouraging their preservation will assist the economic and cultural growth of the State; and  The State’s heritage has been enriched by the accomplishments and contributions of the State’s private QRE in the years following enactment compared to years immediately prior. As a control, one would expect higher growth rates relative to states with no change in their tax credit policy, which would act as a proxy for underlying trends. Table

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RTR-2014-08.pdf

revenues, an increase of $32 million (1.8%) over August 2013. For the fiscal year-to-date, the 9.7% growth rate is magnified by July's $227 million in one-time transfers from special funds. Excluding those transfers, the fiscal year-to-date General Fund growth rate was 3.5%.  Tax revenues increased by $33 million, or 1.9%. Fiscal year-to-date and recent

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

October 29, 2020 4 PA Employment Recovers Thru July, Then Moderates October 29, 2020 5 YOY Number Change (000s) YOY Growth Rate Apr Jul Sept Apr Jul Sept Total -1,062 -539 -477 -17.5% -8.9% -7.8% Construction -104 Does not include self-employed. YOY is year-over-year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recent PA Economic Growth Rates or Change October 29, 2020 6 2019 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 Notes Real GDP 2.4% -5

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Presentation Overview Economic Outlook o Changes to forecast. o Consumer spending is crucial – primary driver of economic growth. Revenue Forecast o Estimates vs. Year‐to‐Date actuals. o Outlook for rest of fiscal year and next fiscal year S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. Primary Economic Driver: Consumer Spending  Consumers must drive economic growth. o Comprise 70% of economic activity. o Federal, state and local budgets are constrained. o Weak overseas demand.  Sales

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

Budget Outlook (November 2018). November 19, 2018 2 PA Population Snapshots November 19, 2018 3 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth Age 2010 2017 2025 2010-17 2017-25 2010-17 2017-25 0 to 19 3,172 3,009 2 78 -0.1% 1.5% Total 12,711 12,806 12,957 94 151 0.1% 0.1% Note: Average growth is the compound annual average growth rate over the time period. Source: Historical data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast

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NGPR-2019Q1.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office First Quarter 2019 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) First Quarter Calendar Year 2018 2019 Growth 2018 2019 Growth Horizontal 1,441.3 1,653.9 14.7% 1,441.3 1,653.9 14.7% Vertical 2.0

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NGPR-2018Q4.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Fourth Quarter 2018 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2017 2018 Growth 2017 2018 Growth Horizontal 1,400.3 1,648.8 17.8% 5,354.3 6,115.1 14.2% Vertical 1.9

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NGPR-2018Q3.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Third Quarter 2018 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2017 2018 Growth 2017 2018 Growth Horizontal 1,323.0 1,567.5 18.5% 3,954.0 4,465.0 12.9% Vertical 2.3

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NGPR-2018Q2.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Second Quarter Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2017 2018 Growth 2017 2018 Growth Horizontal 1,321.9 1,454.0 10.0% 2,631.1 2,895.4 10.0% Vertical 2.5

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NGPR-2018Q1.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office First Quarter 2018 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) First Quarter Calendar Year 2017 2018 Growth 2017 2018 Growth Horizontal 1,309.2 1,439.2 9.9% 1,309.2 1,439.2 9.9% Vertical 2.7

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

and treasury collections. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue May-19 $2,616 $2,582 $34 Growth 6.5% 5.7% 173.5% FYTD $31,779 $30,977 $803 Growth 0.9% 6.8% -67.5% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

G – š‰” F –Œ S–‰˜› —œ General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Apr-19 $4,413 $4,173 $240 Growth 17.6% 17.4% 20.5% FYTD $29,163 $28,394 $769 Growth 0.5% 6.9% -68.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

of the shortfall. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Mar-19 $4,553 $4,430 $123 Growth 5.3% 3.3% 250.9% FYTD $24,750 $24,221 $528 Growth -2.1% 5.2% -76.6% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

offset those gains. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Feb-19 $2,042 $2,011 $31 Growth -43.0% 5.6% -98.2% FYTD $20,197 $19,792 $405 Growth -3.6% 5.7% -81.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

G – š‰” F –Œ S–‰˜› —œ General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jan-19 $2,885 $2,866 $19 Growth -8.0% 0.8% -93.6% FYTD $18,155 $17,781 $374 Growth 4.5% 5.7% -31.2% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

G – š‰” F –Œ S–‰˜› —œ General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Dec-18 $2,905 $2,811 $94 Growth 3.1% 0.8% 254.8% FYTD $15,270 $14,915 $356 Growth 7.3% 6.7% 41.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

and treasury collections. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Nov-18 $2,337 $2,179 $158 Growth 1.3% 0.9% 7.5% FYTD $12,365 $12,103 $262 Growth 8.3% 8.2% 16.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

in Treasury collections. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Oct-18 $2,474 $2,445 $30 Growth 13.7% 13.2% 88.7% FYTD $10,028 $9,924 $104 Growth 10.1% 9.9% 34.3% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

fiscal year. Gˎ˗ˎ˛ˊ˕ F˞˗ˍ S˗ˊ˙˜ˑ˘˝ General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul-18 $2,238 $2,207 $31 Growth 7.3% 7.0% 40.7% FYTD $2,238 $2,207 $31 Growth 7.3% 7.0% 40.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS July 2018 - INDEPENDENT

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

indicators strong  Down 441k jobs in February from prior year  Positives: housing market, sales tax revenues show strong growth Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now than 2019  to 25-26 (Jan 2021). FYTD Revenues (Adjusted for Delayed Due Dates) March 31, 2021 4 Actual Revenues ($ millions) Amount Growth Notes General Fund $28,706 3.6% Corporate Net Income 2,808 11.5% anticipate weak final payments Sales - Non-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf

month of December for the U.S. and various metro regions. For the U.S., the year-over-year (YOY) growth in the All Items CPI-U was +7.0%. For the Philadelphia metro region, it was +6.6%, the highest YOY growth rate since December 1990. The graph below shows the All Items CPI-U and two other CPI series for the

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf

for factors that drive that outcome, and the impact on national and state economic metrics. For context, the most recent growth rate for the Philadelphia metro CPI-U is 5.6% (October year-over-year (YOY)) and 7.1% for the remain at a very high level and can support further spending over the coming year. Row 5 shows the YOY growth in U.S. purchases of durable goods (e.g., appliances, cars). Continuous and strong demand for those products created bottlenecks

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

6.6% YOY after peaking at 6.8% in June. Many travel-related categories continue to record strong YOY price growth as COVID-19 travel restrictions were relaxed over the summer including: Airline Fares (+19.0%), Lodging Away from Home (+21 Primary Residence (+2.4%). These two categories comprise 31% of the U.S. CPI-U and are discordant with YOY growth in national home prices (+16.6%) based on the May 2021 Case-Shiller Index. Rental prices are “sticky” because the

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf

entrenched inflation has become in the economy and expectations. To provide insight, economists look to the labor market and wage growth. For Pennsylvania, data suggest that inflation is now affecting year-over-year (YOY) wage growth (see graph). From 2020 Q2 to 2021 Q1, average wage growth appeared very high due to the disproportionate contraction of

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

sales tax receipts and lackluster personal income tax remittances from wage and salary withholding. The table below displays first half growth rates for the General Fund and its three largest revenue sources. It also shows the growth rates for the second half of the fiscal year that would be necessary to meet the IFO’s published estimate

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

Census, the estimated share of SUT remittances that would be lost under the proposal. 3/ Projected industry (nominal) growth rates from IHS Global Insight were used. For Resales and Use Tax, two-year average (2010-11 and 2011-12) was used providers (NAIC 488190 and 488119) for Pennsylvania, the U.S. and 15 states. The table depicts average annual growth rates over two time periods: 1999-2011 and 2005-2011. The time periods were selected based on the earliest year that relevant

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Ranks 19 th in Real GDP Growth for 2018 Q1 On July 24, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for 2018 Q1. The data show that Penn- sylvania ranked 19 th in real GDP growth (2.0%) for the first quarter (quarterly annualized growth rate). Pennsylva- nia underperformed Virginia (2.4%), but outperformed New Jersey

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

March 31, 2022 2 FYTD Revenues (Adjusted for Delayed Due Dates) March 31, 2022 3 Actual Revenues ($ millions) Amount (e) Growth Notes on Adjustments General Fund $34,129 12.7% Corporate Net Income 3,237 28.7 due date shift Sales 766 4.2 fed funds/transfer Note: Dollars in millions. Revenues through March 2022. PIT is personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for due date shifts, one-time transfers and extra deposit day for withholding. Initial Revenue Estimate for FY

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

for 2015 and 2016. • Forecasts: June 2014 vs. January 2015. • Drop in gas prices: SUT and other impacts. • Real wage growth: boost to consumer confidence? FY 2014‐15 General Fund Revenues. • Performance through January. • Revisions to FY 2014‐15 estimate. • Implications Statistics. 2014 is preliminary. 2015 estimate by IFO. Annual Job Gains and Losses (000s) 28.Jan.2015 5 PA Economic Growth Rates ‐3.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6

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MER-2014-09.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

NO policy recommendations. February 28, 2017 2 Projected Budget Deficit February 28, 2017 3 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Growth Begin Balance $275 $2 -$936 Revenue Available 29,855 30,994 31,309 1.0% Expenditures 30,127 31,931 in beginning 1/1/19. Source: FY 2017-18 Executive Budget. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 6 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 2.8% 0

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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RTR-2015-04.pdf

to-date. Excluding one-time transfers and a $100 million inheritance tax payment in October 2014, fiscal year-to-date growth is 6.1%.  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $34 million (4.3%) for the month and by $282 million (3.8%) for the fiscal year-to-date. The three-month and twelve-month growth rates averaged 5.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Non-withholding revenues increased by $194 million (18.8%) over the prior

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RTR-2015-01.pdf

4 billion in General Fund revenues in January, an increase of $37 million (1.6%) over January 2014. The monthly growth rate is affected by the $80 million transfer of liquor store profits, which occurred in March of the prior year However, adjusting for one-time transfers, an unexpected inheritance tax payment and the timing of receipts, the year-to-date growth was $645 million (4.4%).  Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $32 million (35.9%) for the month

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RTR-2014-07.pdf

table below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $83 million, or 4.4%. The one-month growth in tax revenues has exceeded the recent 3-month (2.1%) and twelve-month (0.1%) growth.  Sales and use tax deposits experienced growth of $52 million (6.4%) in July. Nonmotor vehicle revenues explain much

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

greater than $200,000. 3 The data reveal the following outcomes:  For tax years 2017 and 2018, Total Income growth was strongest for the high income group. (See bottom of table.) This outcome is not unusual for non-recession years due to strong capital gains and dividends. For 2018, the growth of capital gain and dividend income is likely related to the reduction in the corporate net income tax rate from

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

76 and SB 76. o Five-Year Outlook. 24 . Sept . 2013 2 Today’s Presentation PA Economic Outlook Weakens annual growth rate or levels 2012 2013 2014 Wages and Salaries Dec 2012 Forecast 3.4% 3.2% 4.0% May 2013 health care benefits. o Monetary Policy - pull back to start soon. 24 . Sept . 2013 4 Contributions to U.S. Real Growth 2012 2013 2014 Real Economic Growth 2.8% 1.6% 2.6% 1 Consumer Purchases 1.5% 1.3% 1

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

to that year, multi-year index trends were much closer. For example, from 2010 to 2017, the average rate of growth was 2.4 percent (BPI) and 2.9 percent (CCI) per annum. The performance of local system construction and maintenance 9 District 12 9.2 3.1 1.1 0.4 3.4 Project Cost Over Budget 2015 2017 2019 Growth Change 2015 2019 Pennsylvania 4,701 4,147 3,501 -25.5% -1,200 20.6% 15.3% Ohio 1

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf

in 2011. National and regional prices recorded significant gains in 2021 due to the combination of weaker-than-usual supply growth and demand rebounding from closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Through October, the NYMEX delayed due to backlogs at some courts. Monthly Economic Update October 2021 Note: Orange line reflects Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth for Rent of Primary Residence from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Blue line reflects rent growth estimates from

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf

component increased by 0.3 ppts more than the U.S. average (5.0% vs. 4.7%). For April, the growth rate differential increased to 1.0 ppt (6.1% vs. 5.1%). ▪ The Energy CPI component includes gasoline and utilities Energy component increased by 1.2 ppts less than the U.S. (24.4% vs. 25.6%). For April, the growth rate differential flipped, and Philadelphia grew by 2.6 ppts more than the U.S. (32.9% vs. 30.3%

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MER-2014-10.pdf

net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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MER-2014-01.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year‐over‐year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

of data. Data are from the US Department of Labor - Survey of Establish- ments. Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on latest three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. Data are from the US Department of Commerce. Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. Data are from National Association of Realtors. Consumer

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

to five times that amount in new spending, critics believe the tax credit does little to promote economic growth because a large portion of the subsidized expenses flow out of state as wages to non-residents and some recipients would film that can be awarded for any fiscal year is $65 million. The tax credit seeks to promote the growth and development of the Pennsylvania film and television production industry. The general findings of this report are as follows:  Three states

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RTR-2015-02.pdf

after adjusting for one-time transfers, an unexpected inheritance tax payment and the timing of receipts, the year-to-date growth was $739 million (4.5%). Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Sales and use 7%) for the month and $206 million (3.9%) for the fiscal year-to-date. The three and twelve-month growth rates were 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively. Collections from motor vehicle sales increased by $10 million (13.0%) for

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RTR-2014-11.pdf

one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 3.7%.  Tax revenues increased by $38 million (2.3%) over the prior year and $459 million (4 million (1.9%) for the month and $121 million (3.4%) for the fiscal year. The three and twelve-month growth rates for withholding were 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively.  Sales and use tax revenues increased by $26 million

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RTR-2014-10.pdf

one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 4.1%.  Tax revenues increased by $144 million (7.0%) over the prior year and by $420 million the prior fiscal year-to-date. Withholding, which comprises the majority of these revenues, posted one, three and twelve-month growth rates of 4.0%, 3.7% and 3.0%, respectively. Nonwitholding revenues increased by $1 million (0.8%) over the

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RTR-2014-06.pdf

collections dropped by $282 million (-46.9%). Sales and use tax revenue increased due to the $166 million (2.1%) growth in nonmotor collections and the $70 million (6.0%) growth in motor vehicle collections. Personal income taxes increased by $66 million (0.6%) despite a decline of $155 million (-11

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

to the COVID-19 pandemic, this analysis only uses data through 2019. Figure 2.1 displays the average annual employment growth of the food services and drinking places sub-sector (NAICS 722) for 2014 through 2019 in the border counties of both states, Fulton (PA, 5.9%), Garrett (MD, 4.8%) and Frederick (MD, 3.7%) counties recorded the strongest employment growth. 8 See http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/releases/364/Analysis-of-Revenue-Proposals-in-the-2020-21-Executive-Budget

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Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf

prior months was distributed to this tax from the corporate tax clearing account in May, accounting for some of the growth for the month.  Sales and use tax deposits increased by $42 million (5.9%), led by gains in nonmotor collections (6.6%). This is the strongest monthly sales tax growth rate since July 2012. The three-month moving average growth rate remains low at 0.2%. For the fiscal year

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf

 Deposits for the gross receipts tax were significantly higher than the deposits for a typical July, resulting in strong growth for other corporate revenues. Gross receipts tax deposits this month were $25.8 million, while deposits for July 2010 and July 2011 were $0.9 million and $3.6 million, respectively.  Growth in sales and use tax – nonmotor collections (4.9%) rebounded somewhat in July after lagging in May and June. The

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QRR_2016Q3.pdf

report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Report. GENERAL FUND revenues for the third quarter The differential was primarily driven by unexpected weakness in non-motor revenues ($100.8 million, -4.5%), which exhibited flat growth (0.7%) for the quarter compared to estimated growth (5.5%). In addition, the transfer from non- motor receipts to

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

areas warranting additional research and analysis. To that end, the focus should be on the relative trends or growth rates between states, because the data do not control for relevant factors such as income levels, the share of the state population Virginia) recorded flat or increasing incarceration rates. (See table on next page.) Pennsylvania recorded the 8 th highest growth in state incarceration in the U.S. over this time period. From 2006 to 2011, Pennsylvania experienced the 2 nd highest incarceration

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

people entering the gig economy to diversify income sources after payroll job losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth in Pennsylvania business applications lags national trends. U.S. cumulative business applications are 19.3% higher than the same week increase in transfer payments (83.6%). The large increase was driven by the distribution of federal economic impact payments and growth in unemployment insurance which includes Pandemic Unemployment Compensation Payments, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation. Personal consumption fell

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf

PPI includes sales to governments, other businesses and exports, but excludes imports. The graph below shows year-over-year (YOY) growth rates for the PPI (national), U.S. CPI and Philadelphia metro region CPI since 2018. For the PPI, the latest data show YOY growth of 8.6%, which is the strongest rate since the current series was published in 2010. In addition to higher

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

month relative to the prior month, which is very robust relative to historical averages. A portion of the strong wage growth was due to employment gains, which were 0.5% for March and 0.2% for April. The residual growth is largely due to gains in the average wage paid, which grew by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. If

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MER-2013-11.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Sales Year-over-year growth rate of retail sales based on lat- est three months of data. Includes purchases of gas and motor vehicles. 3 Residential Home Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that

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RTR-2014-01.pdf

compared to January 2013. o Nonmotor vehicle deposits increased by $27 million (3.9%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. o Motor vehicle tax remittances declined by $3 million (-3.6%). Fiscal 5.4%) higher than last year. Over the last three months revenues declined by 0.3%, and the twelve-month growth rate is 3.3%.  Personal income tax remittances declined by $34 million (-2.8%). o Withholding revenues increased by

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RTR-2013-12.pdf

use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits decreased by $15 million (-2.1%) over last December, bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates down to 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. Motor vehicle tax remittances increased by $9 million (10.9%). Fiscal Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $11 million (1.5%) for the month, and the fiscal year-to-date growth rate is 2.2%. Nonwithholding receipts increased by $2 million (1.8%). Fiscal year-to-date nonwithholding collections are up

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RTR-2013-11.pdf

 Sales and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits grew by $21 million (3.4%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 2.4% and 1.7%, respectively. Motor vehicle remittances decreased by $7 million (-7.6%). Fiscal year-to- 1%).  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $12 million (1.8%) for the month, and the twelve-month growth rate is 2.6%. Nonwithholding receipts decreased by $3 million (-10.5%). Despite this recent decline, nonwitholding revenues are up

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

and escheats collections ($118 million). Other revenue sources were relatively close to estimate. Table 2 (next page) displays relevant economic growth rates for calendar year (CY) 2020 used by the IFO for its Mid-Year Update (January 2020) and the growth rates assumed for the two stylized scenarios. The income sources displayed in Table 2 reflect the majority of income received

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Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf

increased by 37.6%.  Sales and use tax nonmotor vehicle receipts increased by 3.2%, bringing the fiscal year growth rate to 2.2%. The three-month rolling average growth rate is 3.0%, and the twelve-month rolling average is 3.3% after controlling for the effects of a

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QRR_2017Q1.pdf

collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec‐ tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For 8 million for the quarter and below estimate by $3.8 million for the fiscal year‐to‐date. The quarterly growth rate in motor vehicle collections was particularly strong (9.7%) due to unusually high collections in January, which yielded growth

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

1,860 Note: dollar amounts are in millions. IFO January Report 8.Jun.2016 6  FY 2016‐17 expenditure growth of $1,884 million. • One‐time expenditure deferrals expire. • Use of special funds scaled back. • Mandatory expenditure categories (e.g pensions, debt service, human services and corrections) constitute as much as 80 to 90 percent of the increase.  Revenue growth of only $603 million. • Certain prior year transfers do not recur. • Escheat collections return to a “normal” level. • Elimination of

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

and other vehicle dealers (11.9%), food and beverage (12.0%) and building materials and supplies (24.6%) recorded strong growth relative to June 2019. However, health and personal care (-0.5%) and clothing and accessories (-25.6%) spending recorded declines other vehicle dealers (14.4%), building materials and supplies (23.4%) and health and personal care (7.8%) reported strong growth. Food service (-13.7%) and clothing (-12.0%) remain weak relative to September 2019. Pennsylvania Personal Income Grows by 12

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

consumers. A WSJ article notes that despite the low interest rate environment in place since the 2008 recession, consumer price growth has remained below the 2.0% target, growing at an average rate of 1.4% per annum. However, asset prices in the commodities, stock and housing markets recorded much stronger growth. Housing highlights the challenges in measuring consumer purchasing power. Housing is both a service that provides shelter (tracked in the

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

2012. Low natural gas prices resulting from oversupply have been present for several years, as sustained regional and national production growth has outpaced record levels of demand. A mild winter and the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced demand for natural gas 300 jobs (-10.2%) and the number of unemployed Pennsylvanians grew by 546,000 (198.4%). All industries experienced employment growth between May 2020 and June 2020, with the exception of the financial and government sectors which remained relatively flat. The

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

Statistics, increased 1.1% over the prior year (not seasonally adjusted) continuing a trend of modest year-over-year price growth for 2020 Q4. Certain types of goods experienced large year-over-year price growth compared to December 2019 including: household furniture and appliances (+12.2%), used cars and trucks (+10.1%), personal care services

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

plastics grew from 0.39 million tons in 1960 to 26.8 million tons by 2017. The rapid growth of plastics products and waste over the 40-year period between 1960 and 2000 motivated several countries to enact restrictions on the s abundant supply of natural gas and proximity to major regional markets make it well-positioned to attract growth in the petrochemical manufacturing industry. Plastic Bag Manufacturers •Plastic bag manufacturers use molds and machinery to process the resins, additives and colorants

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RTR-2015-03.pdf

than the prior year. However, adjusting for one-time transfers and an unexpected inheritance tax payment, the year-to-date growth was $875 million (4.3%). • Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $96 million (22.8%) for the month and for the month and $248 million (3.8%) for the fiscal year-to-date. The twelve-month average displays a growth rate of 3.5%. Nonwithholding revenues increased $25 million (20.8%) for the month, and increased $76 million (6.3%

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RTR-2014-12.pdf

one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 5.6%.  Tax revenues increased by $287 million (12.2%) for the month and $746 million (6.1%) for the fiscal year. Some of the monthly revenue growth is attributable to a technical factor affecting the timing of personal income tax withholding deposits.  Corporate net income tax

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RTR-2014-09.pdf

previous fiscal year. Excluding July’s $227 million in one-time transfers from special funds, the fiscal year-to-date growth rate was 4.6%. • Tax revenues increased by $159 million (6.6%) compared to September 2013. Fiscal year-to-date 31 million compared to the prior year. Withholding collections increased by $25 million (3.9%), bringing fiscal year-to-date growth to 3.8% and the twelve-month average to 2.9%. September quarterly payments grew by $5 million (1.6%

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RTR-2013-10.pdf

 Sales and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits grew by $16 million (2.4%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 2.9% and 1.4%, respectively. Motor vehicle remittances increased by $12 million (13.1%). Over the last year.  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $23 million (3.0%) for the month, but the twelve-month growth rate is only 1.6%. Nonwithholding receipts increased by $6 million (5.4%) due to growth of $8 million (13

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

simplicity, all CPI adjustments in this table use IHS Markit's U.S. CPI-U year-over-year growth rate to estimate the adjustment for future years. Minimum Wage | Page 18 States that have raised their minimum wage often cite the increase over time. One method to measure the reduced purchasing power of a fixed minimum wage is the growth in the consumer price index (CPI-U) during the relevant time period. The CPI-U is published by the U.S. Bureau

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

fiscal year, General Fund tax revenues increased by only $31 million (0.1 percent), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The comprised the majority of the underprediction error. The factors driving the CNIT error are not clear because the growth in U.S. non-financial domestic profits (5.5 percent) for 2014 was much lower than the growth in FY 2014-15

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Except:  Increases personal income tax: 3.07% to 4.95%.  Distributions to districts increase by lesser of annual growth in (1) sales tax revenues, (2) personal income tax revenues or (3) the statewide average weekly wage. 19.May.2017 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 19.May.2017 Annual Growth Rate of Tax Revenues Income Property Sales Great Recession Federal Rate Increase 11 19.May.2017 1.00 1.10

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

previous June. Excluding energy, the Philadelphia region CPI-U grew 2.4% year-over-year, while medical care showed strong growth of 3.9%. Nationally, inflation remains low with 1.6% growth from the prior year, or 2.1% growth if energy is excluded. Personal Income Growth Moderates in 2019 Q1 On

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

IFO will release an updated impact fee forecast for CY 2018 (remitted April 2019) in late January 2019. Home Price Growth Slows in 2018 Q3 On November 27, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released purchase-only index data for 2018 adjusted data show that third quarter home prices grew by 1.8% on a quarterly annualized basis. Pennsylvania home price growth has slowed significantly since earlier in the year (Q1: 6.1%, Q2: 3.1%). Third quarter annualized growth was also

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

9%) and home equity line of credit debt (-11.9%). Nationally, consumer debt increased to $14.35 trillion, 2.9% growth over the prior year. Growth was driven by a 4.5% ($424 billion) increase in mortgage debt, a 3.4% ($45 billion) increase in auto

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

to levels not recorded in over two years as the economy reopens and temperatures run above normal. U.S. production growth has also been modest in 2021, reducing a supply glut that restrained prices in prior years. The near-month settlement Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

Pennsylvania March Jobs Growth Flat The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released March employment data for Pennsylvania. Year-over-year total non-farm employment growth was essentially flat (0.1%, 6,200 jobs, not seasonally adjusted). The transportation-utilities (2.8%), financial activities (2.2%

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

 Pennsylvania undergoing dramatic transformation.  Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade.  Subtle impacts on economic growth and tax revenues.  Difficult to quantify. Must view long-term trends.  Key factor: Baby Boomers and their characteristics:  Sheer numbers: +43% growth in residents age 70 vs. age 71.  More working during “normal” retirement years.  Dramatic shift in spending towards

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

8% 14.0% Lottery Instant Ticket Sales 4.8% 6.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.8% Notes: Real GDP growth rates are quarterly annualized rates. Non-GDP growth rates are year-over-year. Net New Jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

flow costs/ (savings) as of June 30, 2018, assuming end of year payment, at 3.6% (a proxy for budget growth) and 7.25/7.5% (the investment return used in PSERS’/SERS’ cost notes). The 3.6% proxy for budget growth is based on the average annual growth in projected General Fund revenue from FY 2017-18 to 2021-22 in

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

g., grants). Award Year AAGR 15-19 Note: Dollar amounts in millions, except for Average Credit. AAGR is average annual growth rate. Act 13 of 2019 increased the seven-year project cap from $150,000 to $250,000 and the annual of non-dairy milk alternatives (e.g., almond milk and soy milk). Poultry and egg sales have steadily increased (average growth rate of 5.2 percent per annum over the period) and comprise roughly 20 percent of all agriculture sales. 2007

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

metrics (employees, payroll, revenue, etc.) in the KIZ reporting sys- tem. 7 After the firm has documented revenue growth within the KIZ, the firm is eligible to apply for a KIZ tax credit in the following year. DCED reviews applications and KIZ Tax Credit | Page 11 icine manufacturing (3254). The rates shown in Table 2.5 represent annual average growth rates for num- ber of firms in these subsectors from 2014 to 2018. It is noted that these are net rates of

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

secondary institutions. However, Pennsylvania employees declined 0.2% over those eight years. The figure on page 8 illustrates the cumulative growth of post-secondary employment from 2010 through 2019 (latest year) for the United States, Pennsylvania and border states. Of the states shown, Delaware had the highest cumulative growth rate through 2019 (14.0%) and West Virginia had the lowest cumulative growth rate (-6.1%). Pennsylvania had nearly flat

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RTR-2014-05.pdf

the prior fiscal year-to-date. Nonmotor deposits declined by $3 million (-0.4%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively. Motor vehicle deposits increased by $7 million (6.9%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 6.7% and 5.1%, respectively. • Personal income tax withholding revenues declined $92 million (-12.0%) from the

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

General Fund Snapshot Revenue Source FY15-16 Growth FY16-17 Growth General Fund - Total $30,999 1.3% $31,661 2.1% Corporate Net Income 2,843 1.1% 2,921

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

For the entire fiscal year, General Fund tax revenues increased by only $31 million (0.1%), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares revenue sources comprised the majority of the underprediction error. The factors driving the CNIT error are not clear because the growth in U.S. non-financial domestic profits (3.9%) for 2014 was much lower than the growth in FY 2014-

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

fiscal year, General Fund tax revenues increased by only $31 million (0.1 percent), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The comprised the majority of the underprediction error. The factors driving the CNIT error are not clear because the growth in U.S. non-financial domestic profits (3.9 percent) for 2014 was much lower than the growth in FY 2014-15

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

fiscal year, General Fund tax revenues increased by only $31 million (0.1 percent), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The comprised the majority of the underprediction error. The factors driving the CNIT error are not clear because the growth in U.S. non-financial domestic profits (3.9 percent) for 2014 was much lower than the growth in FY 2014-15

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Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf

prior year. For the most recent three-month period, nonmotor vehicle sales tax grew by 1.4%. The twelve-month growth rate continues to be affected by a statutory change that accelerated the collection of revenue into June 2011.  Deposits from personal income tax employer withholding increased by 2.9%. The three and twelve-month periods display growth of 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively.  Realty transfer tax revenues declined by $3 million (-11.1%), but they

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Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf

for October:  Tax revenue increased by 12.4% in October. Nearly one-half of the increase was attributable to growth in personal income tax employer withholding (see below). Another 29% of the monthly revenue growth was due to the corporate net income tax.  Personal income tax employer withholding increased by $108 million (16.6%

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf

9%) increase in withholding deposits. The resulting shift of revenue compared to last year’s pattern will weaken reported revenue growth in February. o Strong quarterly estimated payments resulted in an increase of $54 million (15.2%) in nonwithholding revenues.  than the prior year. o Nonmotor vehicle receipts declined by $14 million (-2.0%). Over the last three months revenue growth has been negligible at 0.3%. For the fiscal year, revenues have increased by only 1.5%. o Motor vehicle

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Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf

3%) over the prior year. o Nonmotor vehicle receipts were up by $24 million (4.4%), bringing the three- month growth rate to 1.6%. For the fiscal year, revenues have increased by 1.8%. o Motor vehicle deposits fell by three-month period.  Realty Transfer Tax receipts increased by 2.5% for the month. The three and twelve- month growth rates are robust at 16.9% and 15.3%, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

162 99 65 115 n.a. TOTAL 905 883 919 1,163 1,616 988 645 1,152 $1,785 Growth Rate -2.4% 4.0% 26.6% 38.9% -38.9% -34.7% 78.5% 55.0% Note: Figures in total production and they would report 10 percent of total royalty income. Estimate for 2018 based on production gains and growth in average hub spot prices. Counties ranked by production in 2017. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, Personal Income Tax Statistics

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QRR_2016Q4.pdf

report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For occurred this year. The table below provides General Fund year-over-year fourth-quarter and fiscal year-to-date revenue growth rates. OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2016 GENERAL FUND YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH RATES Fourth Quarter - 2016 Fiscal Year-to-Date Fiscal

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

15. ________________________________________ 2 See the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review April to June 2015 Page payments for tax years 2013 and 2014. The reason has not been identified. • Motor vehicle sales displayed strong growth for the second year in a row. The estimate anticipated that growth would continue, but at a more moderate rate. • Quarterly personal

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QRR_2014Q2.pdf

14. ________________________________________ 2 See the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review April to June 2014 Page the quarter. Despite strength in estimated payments, a substantial decline in final payments resulted in a negative quarterly growth rate. For the fiscal year, revenues were $42 million above estimate. Estimated payments were weak early in the fiscal year, but they

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QRR_2013Q3.pdf

14. ________________________________________ 2 See the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review July-September 2013 Page 2 2.1 percent. Motor vehicle collections were projected to increase by 4.3 percent, but the actual revenue growth of 8.0 percent outpaced the estimate. Personal Income Tax Personal income tax collections were $13 million below estimate for the quarter

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies include contributions to PSERS ($2.3 billion). Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Growth Rate of School Property Tax to Increase March 13, 2020 3 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4 purchases)  Tax clothing: ~+920 million  Other: basic cable services, non-prescription drugs, amusements March 13, 2020 4 Revenue Growth and Volatility Comparison March 13, 2020 5 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 7 Impact of 2016 Wage Growth Forecast SAWW Base ECI Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Forecast by IFO using data from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor collections as a percentage of total revenue. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. March 8, 2018 Regional Variation 11 Average Annual Growth: 2006-07 to 2015-16 5.0+ 4.3 - 4.9 3.7 - 4.1 3.1 - 3.6 0

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

Economy League Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office May 1, 2019 The Pennsylvania Labor Market May 1, 2019 1 Annual Growth Rate, Change or Level 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Net Jobs Created (000s) 46.2 48.8 58.8 65 Payroll jobs only. Data include full- and part-time jobs. Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Where is the Jobs Growth? May 1, 2019 2 Net Jobs Created (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 All Payroll Jobs 46.2 48.8 58

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

Recent Revenue and Economic Trends IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus - April 17, 2019 Growth Rate General Fund Tax Revenues 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Non- 32.1% -9.4% Realty Transfer 11.3% 7.9% 11.4% 3.6% 6.2% 8.2% -3.3% Growth Rate or Gains Pennsylvania Economics 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Real

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Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

Recent Revenue and Economic Trends Growth Rate or Change General Fund Tax Revenues (YOY) 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Non-Motor SUT (base 1.9%-0.9%0.9%35.1%20.3%3.9%20.1% Realty Transfer -8.4%7.6%11.3%7.9%11.4%3.6% 6.2% Growth Rate or Change Pennsylvania Economics 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Real GDP (QA) -0.5%3.2% 4

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul to Oct Notes General Fund Tax -9.2% 0.4% year-over-year growth rate Corporate Net Income -12.3% -5.2% much better than expected Sales - Non-Motor -7.1% 3.2% UC issues Inheritance 5.9% -11.7% Realty Transfer -30.9% 6.2% All Other Tax -7.7% 2.0% Note: Growth rates control for revenue shifts for tax relief and miscellaneous one-time transfers. Excludes non-tax revenues. Non-Motor Sales

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

both pass-through entities and C corporations. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Treasury Department, Small Business Administration. Growth of PA Cash Income Peaks in 2020 Despite COVID June 17, 2021 4 -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2 Bureau of Labor Statistics. Impact of Business Closures vs. One Year Later June 17, 2021 6 YOY Change (000s) YOY Growth Apr 20 Oct 20 Apr 21 Apr 20 Oct 20 Apr 21 Total Payroll Employment -1,099 -455 -447 -18

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul to Nov Notes General Fund Tax -9.2% 1.2% year-over-year growth rate Corporate Net Income -12.3% -4.2% much better than expected Sales - Non-Motor -7.1% 3.4% UC issues Inheritance 5.9% -6.2% Realty Transfer -30.9% 9.1% All Other Tax -7.7% 0.8% Note: Growth rates control for revenue shifts for tax relief and miscellaneous one-time transfers. Excludes non-tax revenues. Non-Motor Sales

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Real State GDP Growth is 2.1% for CY 2018 On May 1, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for calendar year 2018 show that the state economy expanded by 2.1% in real terms (excludes inflation). Quarterly annualized growth rates were as follows: 0.7% (Q1), 4.0% (Q2), 3.2% (Q3) and 2.5% (Q4). In nominal terms

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf

Corporate Profits 14 -17.4% 6.5% 2.6% 23.3% 53.8% Sources and Notes: 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

Corporate Profits 14 -8.0% -17.9% 9.2% 3.6% 19.7% Sources and Notes: 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

with the highest share of municipalities at risk in the northeast and southwest regions. U.S. Personal Income Records Strong Growth in April On May 29, 2020 the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released personal income statistics for April 2020 2.3% Corporate Profits 13 -2.4% -1.1% -3.7% -0.3% -10.3% Notes: 11. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 12. Source

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf

Corporate Profits 14 2.6% 23.3% 53.8% 21.4% n.a. Sources and Notes: 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

PA Recovers Half of Jobs Lost From April Low, but Employment Growth Decelerates On August 21, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July state employment report. The data reveal Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 11. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 12. Source

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 12. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 14. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

ETR declined by over four percentage points as the market value of gas increased by nearly 300%, which outpaced the growth in impact fee collections (34.2%) during the same period. The significant growth in market value was driven by strong growth in prices (198.5%) and production (33.2%) during the time period

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2002_drop_report.pdf

of final average salary upon attaining a normal retirement age of 50, the only potential that exists for pension benefit growth after reaching normal retirement age would be through either salary growth or the provision of service increments. Therefore, because DROP participation results in the cessation of benefit accruals, an employee in

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Independent Fiscal Office

concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. ... (Full Report) PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage Growth News Stand & Other November 03, 2021 Using the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. ... (Full Report) July 2021 Economic Update Revenue & Economic Update July

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TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf

been re- mediated so that refuse must now be transported over longer distances. Higher transport costs, excess capacity and robust growth of natural gas production have contributed to facility closures.  For 2019, the average CRER Tax Credit issued was $1 Non-Waste Coal Waste Coal Natural Gas Nuclear All Other Industry Background | Page 13 During the past decade, the robust growth of natural gas production from the Marcellus Shale restrained wholesale electricity prices on the PJM Interconnection. 8 Low electricity prices

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

employment in the U.S. Software Publishers industry grew at a notably higher (8.0 percent per annum) average annual growth rate (AAGR) than total U.S. private payroll employment (1.8 percent). The bottom portion of Table 3.2 displays and Wages. Pennsylvania Employment Data Employment Level Notes: Data represent Software Publishers industry, NAICS Code 511210. AAGR is average annual growth rate. Section 3: State Comparison | Page 12 Literature Review As part of its analysis, the IFO reviewed industry reports that

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RTR-May 2012.pdf

5% 200.0% 159.5% 53.0 269.7% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three or twelve most recent months, as applicable; c statutory changes significantly affect these growth rates 6/26/2012 Three and Twelve‐Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year

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RTR-Mar 2012.pdf

0% 159.5% -79.5% 44.4 250.9% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three or twelve most recent months, as applicable; c statutory changes significantly affect these growth rates 4/26/2012 Three and Twelve‐Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year

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RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf

5% 200.0% 159.5% 66.4 321.8% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three or twelve most recent months, as applicable; c statutory changes significantly affect these growth rates 7/13/2012 Three and Twelve‐Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year

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RTR-Feb 2012.pdf

0% 159.5% -79.5% 41.5 115.4% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three or twelve most recent months, as applicable; c statutory changes significantly affect these growth rates 3/9/2012 Three and Twelve‐Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year

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RTR-Apr 2012.pdf

5% 200.0% 159.5% 48.4 258.7% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three or twelve most recent months, as applicable; c statutory changes significantly affect these growth rates 5/11/2012 Three and Twelve‐Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf

three-month total shows that sales and use tax revenues grew by 3.3%, in contrast to the 0.8% growth rate over the last twelve months.  Personal income tax revenues increased by $117 million (16.9%). Withholding remittances increased 75.3% -36.6% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf

0% 159.5% -79.5% 39.2 65.8% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three or twelve most recent months, as applicable; c statutory changes significantly affect these growth rates 2/3/2012 Three and Twelve‐Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf

 Realty transfer tax deposits increased $5 million (14.6%) over last year. This tax source has shown continued strong growth recently with increases of 18.1% and 16.3% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change 46.5% -27.5% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue

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PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf

January 19, 2022 1 Latest Pennsylvania Demographic Forecast January 19, 2022 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-20 20-30 10-20 20-30 0 to 19 3,173 3,005 2,879 Relatively Low Education-Comm +1.9% Medical Care +3.3% Shelter +4.3% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% YOY Growth in December Philadelphia CPI-U All Items Durable Goods cars, furniture ~10% of CPI +6.6% +19.0% School District

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. On a current-policy basis, the analysis finds that expenditure growth has the potential to significantly exceed revenue growth over this period. Other major findings include:  The Pennsylvania economy will continue to expand, but at a lackluster pace

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

Not a surprise. A $2.5 billion deficit by FY 2019-20. • Key finding: deficit is structural. • Deficit remains if growth returns to a “normal” level.  But, Focus Is on Short-Term Deficit. • FY 2014-15 + FY 2015-16: $1 windfall and other $250 Total Revenues $572 TOTAL NON-RECURRING $1,523 11 Note: millions of dollars. 12.Feb.2015 Growth in Pension Contributions $422 $532 $663 $799 $829 $815 $814 $1,007 $1,158 $1,750 $2,064 $2,244

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

PA Employment by Industry Annual Wages and Employment for Pennsylvania, 1993-2013 Average Annual Growth Rate Wage Distributions ($ millions) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1,126 1,200 1,161 1,064 1,039 1,041 2.2% 0.5% -1.6% Average Annual Growth Rate Average Annual Wage ($ thousands) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

have disqualified them, the exception does not apply to new members. ▪ Total expenditures per cardholder increased at an average annual growth rate of 2.9% for PACE and 7.4% for PACENET from 2016 to 2020, likely due to increases in Medicare Part D/Other Payer Offsets more than made up the difference and grew by 33.2% (+$132 million). This growth is partially due to the requirement that PACENET cardholders pay a monthly benchmark payment if they do not elect Part

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Veterans Homes Activity cost/resident ($000) 1 $168.0 $193.2 $179.2 $191.1 $194.0 $241.7 -- Annual growth -- 15.0% -7.2% 6.7% 1.5% 24.6% 7.6% Private Nursing Facilities Avg. MA payment/resident ($000) 2 -- $73.1 $72.6 $75.0 $76.8 $79.7 -- Annual growth -- -- -0.7% 3.2% 2.4% 3.9% 2.2% Supplemental payments ($ millions) 3 -- $648 $656 $630 $678 $660 -- Home-

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

the top three states were Delaware, South Dakota and North Carolina. Since 2011, Pennsylvania state-chartered bank asset growth has fallen below the national average. (See chart on next page.) Delaware and New Jersey recorded strong growth, while New York and Ohio remain close to the national average. Pennsylvania has a relatively high number of state-chartered credit unions

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

debt across all consumers increased by 7.2% on a year-over-year basis. For other types of debt, the growth rates were as follows: auto (1.5%), credit cards (4.0%), primary mortgage (1.1%) and home equity loans (-5 con- siderably higher than the prior two quarters: 2017 Q4 (0.1%) and 2018 Q1 (0.6%). The second quarter growth rate was higher than some surrounding states (West Virginia (3.4%), New Jersey (3.4%) and New York (3.1%

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MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf

calendar 2015, the three-month average has ranged between 2.1% and 4.1%. • Motor vehicle sales tax showed no growth for the month. The three-month average growth rate is 0.8%, which is significantly below the twelve-month average of 3.7%. • The three-month average growth

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MRU-2020-10.pdf

4 million (15.5 percent) and growing at a year- over-year rate through October of 5.7 percent. FYTD growth is likely driven by: (1) substantial federal transfer payments distributed in 2020 Q2 and Q3, (2) a significant increase in shift in spending from out-of-state travel, gasoline, etc., to home furnishings, electronics and other taxable household goods. SUT growth is expected to slow in the coming months, with less federal support flowing to households in 2020 Q4. October PIT

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

for July were $2.31 billion, an increase of $1.29 billion (126.1 percent) above the prior year. The growth was entirely attributable to the virus-related extension of final (tax year 2019) and estimated (tax year 2020) payments from 2 percent after adjusting for the prepayment change and a one-time large transfer that occurred last July. The strong growth was primarily the result of motor vehicle SUT collections, which increased by $49.7 million (34.9 percent) for the

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 11. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

2.0% Corporate Profits 13 -2.4% -1.1% -3.7% -0.3% n.a. Notes: 11. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 11. Year-over-year growth rate of S&P 500 closing price. Data as of the first of the month. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 12. Source: Yahoo! Finance. 13. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

no economic connection to the state;  it will make the state less attractive to firms and will constrain economic growth; and  it will introduce significant administrative complexity. It is well known that determination of the unitary group is a simple statistical test to quantify the potential impact of combined reporting for Pennsylvania. The test compared the difference in average growth rates for state economic growth (as measured by state private GDP) and CNIT revenues from 2005 to 2018 for six

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

economy appears to be operating at full capacity, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% (December 2018), strong net jobs growth (roughly 73,000 net new payroll jobs in 2018) and wages increasing at a solid pace (4.3% for 2018 next fiscal year. However, there are some headwinds for this year and next that suggest policymakers should expect slower economic growth. They are as follows:  There has been significant volatility in the stock market. Consumers are more reluctant to spend

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

General Fund Taxes 27,149 28,097 949 3.5% 10.Jul.2012 8 2012 GPNP Conference General Fund Tax Growth Rates corp. other sales personal all FYE Total net inc. corporate and use income other 2000-01 1.4% -13 10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Annual Growth PA Sales Tax Revenue 3 month moving average 10.Jul.2012 14 2012 GPNP Conference June 2011 1.8% June

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

on research literature?” Timothy Bartik, W.E. Upjohn Institute, Working Paper 18-289 (July 2018). “Colorado’s Job Growth Incentive Tax Credit and Evaluation of Job Growth in Colorado Firms,” Hauptman, William, Undergraduate Honors Theses, University of Colorado Boulder (2014). “Evaluation of the Job Creation Tax Credit,” Maryland Department

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SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx

GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Figure 4.2 Annual Growth Rates for Figure 4.2 Fiscal Personal Sales School Regional Nominal Year Income and Use Property CPI GSP 1994-95 4% 3.7% 2012-13 5.3% 1.4% 2.6% 1.4% 2.7% Notes: 1 Personal Income Tax growth rates are adjusted for the 2004 tax rate increase. 2 Sales and Use Tax growth rates prior to any transfers

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RTR-2014-04.pdf

87.9% 6.9% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

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RTR-2014-03.pdf

51.2% -0.6% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

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RTR-2014-02.pdf

36.8% -4.6% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

fiscal year, General Fund tax revenues increased by only $31 million (0.1 percent), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The comprised the majority of the underprediction error. The factors driving the CNIT error are not clear because the growth in U.S. non-financial domestic profits (5.5 percent) for 2014 was much lower than the growth in FY 2014-15

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

filers. Sales and Use Tax – The forecast projects moderate increases in consumer spending, but low inflation may restrain the overall growth rate of collections. Motor vehicle sales are projected to increase, but the rate of increase is expected to be lower than the prior year’s rate. Personal Income Tax – Continued wage and employment gains motivate growth in withholding revenues. A technical factor relating to the calendar results in an extra withholding due date compared to the

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

disposable income. Receipts are restrained by low inflation for taxable consumer goods. Motor vehicle receipts are projected to display continued growth. Personal Income Tax – Deposits from employer withholding are projected to increase modestly due to increased employment and low wage inflation. Quarterly and annual remittances are expected to exhibit much stronger growth in FY14-15 because these revenues were suppressed in FY13-14 due to a behavioral response related to federal tax

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Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf

10.7% 115.0% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Periods Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

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Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf

6.5% 68.2% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

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Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf

71.6% -16.5% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf

163.1% 218.2% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Aggregate Periods Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

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Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf

26.2% 49.2% 1 compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

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QRR_2017Q3.pdf

tions. The report also provides context for the vari- ances between estimates and actual collections. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For 5 million, respectively. The table below provides General Fund year-over-year third quarter and fiscal year-to-date revenue growth rates. Third Quarter - 2017 Fiscal Year-to-Date Fiscal Year Revenue Source Actual Estimate Actual Estimate Estimate General Fund Total

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QRR_2017Q2.pdf

collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For 998.9 1.6 Other Motor Receipts 6.7 7.4 -0.7 25.3 41.1 -15.8 Total Growth Rate 11.4% 6.1% n.a. 3.8% 3.6% n.a. LOTTERY FUND Total Lottery Fund 5 $1

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QRR_2015Q4.pdf

16. ________________________________________ 2 See the Monthly Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year. Quarterly Revenue Review October to December 2015 Page 2 Table 2 contains detail on actual and projected growth rates of major revenue sources for the quarter and the fiscal year-to-date. Table 5 contains additional detail on specific General

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QRR_2015Q3.pdf

estimate. All other General Fund revenues were $87 million above estimate. 2 Table 2 contains detail on actual and projected growth rates of major revenue sources for the quarter and the fiscal year-to-date. Table 5 contains additional detail on 16. ________________________________________ 2 See the Monthly Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year. Quarterly Revenue Review July to September 2015 Page 2 For the first quarter of FY 2015-

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QRR_2015Q1.pdf

15. ________________________________________ 2 See the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review January to March 2015 Page and the remainder of the overage, or $239 million, was attributable to final payments. Corporate Net Income Tax Growth Rates Quarter FYTD Actual Proj. Actual Proj. Estimated 0.9% -3.1% 9.1% 4.7% Final 57.2 -8.0 29

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QRR_2014Q4.pdf

15. ________________________________________ 2 See the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review October to December 2014 Page and the remainder of the overage, or $94 million, was attributable to final payments. Corporate Net Income Tax Growth Rates Quarter FYTD Actual Proj. Actual Proj. Estimated 6.0% 5.4% 12.2% 7.7% Final 1.1 -30.6 7

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

 Increases personal income tax: 3.07% to 4.95%.  Distributions to school districts increase by lesser of annual growth in (1) sales tax revenues or (2) statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) (~+2.5% to 4.0%). Some important considerations the new replacement revenues grow?  How will both respond to economic conditions? 1/19/2017 8 Long-Term Revenue Growth Trends 1/19/2017 9 2004-05 = 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

made to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association on January 19, 2017. August 16, 2018 Page 2 Graph 1 displays cumulative growth rates for personal income, sales-use, and school property taxes as well as a weighted average Pennsylvania Consumer Price Index 61 percent) and personal income tax (60 percent). Graph 2 uses the same data as Graph 1 but displays annual growth rates for the three tax revenue sources. The data show that personal income tax has been more volatile than sales

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

Pennsylvania Business Council June 22, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real State GDP 1.1% 0.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% United States 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.3 n.a. 22.Jun.2015 3 Real Per Capita GDP Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 22.Jun.2015 4 Net Change = +$582 million Revised FY 2014-15 IFO

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

87.1 Students w/ Disabilities 76.5 77.6 87.9 White 92.2 91.4 95.3 English Language Growth and Attainment 1 All Students 30.8% 45.2% 70.3% 2 or More Races 28.6 45.2 70 0 Hispanic 85.5 * 93.0 Students w/ Disabilities 85.4 * 93.0 White 92.9 * 93.0 1 EL Growth and Attainment did not have the Native American or Hawaiian student groups. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 2 Regular Attendance

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

0% New York 1,674 1,528 1,125 1,031 -9.5% -4.3% Note: AAGR is average annual growth rate. Source: The Jockey Club. Thoroughbred Horse Racing Statistics Other Regulatory Services | Page 29 Activity 5: Other Regulatory Services The 640 $1,704 $1,645 -- Beverage and tobacco products $106 $125 $137 $145 $144 -- Paper $524 $488 $481 $450 $415 -- Growth in total PA agricultural receipts 3,4 -14.0% 6.0% -1.0% -1.0% -0.1% -- Share of national

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

Dec.13.2017 5 PA Demographics: Large Retirement Wave Age Cohort Number Residents (000s) Gain or Loss (000s) Avg. Annual Growth 2015 2020 2025 2015-20 2020-25 2015-20 2020-25 0 -19 3,039 3,023 2,981 -16 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center with adjustments by IFO. Dec.13.2017 6 PA Economic Growth Rates 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% 0.6% 1.8% 1

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

individual tax returns in tax year 2018—marking the 7th year of decline as IRS employment shrinks. Personal Consumption Expenditure Growth Accelerated in 2018 Pennsylvania personal consumption expenditures grew 4.9% in 2018, accelerating from a 3.6% increase in 2017. The data, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 3, reported national personal consumption expenditure growth of 5.1% in 2018, with the strongest growth in the Mountain and Western re- gions. For Pennsylvanians, health care

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

revenues, production and price. As shown in Table 3, the ETR for CY 2014 decreased, largely due to strong production growth. For CY 2015, the ETR rose dramatically due to low prices, which caused a significant decline in market value. The After being relatively stable for two consecutive years, national and regional prices were suppressed in CY 2019 as sustained production growth outstripped record levels of natural gas demand. Prices have declined even further in 2020 as the result of natural gas

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

to be in a good position, with the latest Philadelphia CPI-U reading running low (0.8% in December), jobs growth strong (roughly 60,000 net new jobs last year) and wages increasing at a solid pace (4.2% in latest asset values, but it is too soon to know whether either could have a material impact on short-term economic growth. Federal Tax Law Changes The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will have important implications for General Fund revenues and the

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

collections yet ▪ Some data suggest decline not as bad as anticipated | stimulus ▪ SAWW at record high | elevated by 2021 wage growth November 16, 2021 1 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update November 16, 2021 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-20 20-30 10-20 20-30 0 to 19 3,173 3,005 2,879

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

published by the office are available on its website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Revenue Update Fiscal Years (millions) Growth Rates FYTD: July-August Only (millions) 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2017-18 Growth IFO Est. $ Diff Corporate Net Income $2,842 $2,751 $2,855 1.1% -3.2% 3.8% $96 17

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TC_2022_Brewers.pdf

paid $2.9 billion in total wages. By 2019, those amounts had expanded rapidly to 86,670 (15.7% average growth per annum) and $3.9 billion (7.2%). 9 For Pennsylvania, employment was 3,643 staff and total wages paid the national total. The very rapid expansion of the industry across all states suggests that broad market trends have driven growth, irrespective of whether a state offered a brewer’s tax incentive. The analysis projects that expan- sion will continue in

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

of the EEEP as follows: Goals ▪ Increase the number of rehearsals and concerts that take place in Pennsylvania. ▪ Encourage employment growth in the music and entertainment related industries. ▪ Expand Pennsylvania’s market share of national employment in this industry. Purpose ▪ Expand payments to non-residents are not included because they flow out-of-state and have no implications for state economic growth. 20 18 Although 10 percent of the tax credit ($0.8 million) flows to a third party facilitator, those monies

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

expanding senior population, (2) temporary cash flow impacts due to the Medical Assistance – Community HealthChoices (MA-CHC) rollout and (3) growth in waiver program costs. Of the $8.18 billion, $3.47 billion is state funds, a $0.84 billion increase 2012. More recent research finds that common and significant income tax breaks for the elderly fail to promote state economic growth. See Brewer, Ben and Karen Smith Conway and Jonathan Rork. “Do Income Tax Breaks for the Elderly Affect Economic Growth

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RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf

ended the first week of September. That expiration could alleviate some pressures in the labor market and reduce nominal wage growth. The table also shows detail for four sectors. For the leisure and hospitality sector, which tends to employ lower-wage Manufacturing -0.1% -0.1% -1.1% -0.8% Professional-Business Services -2.8% -4.3% -3.6% -1.7% Growth of Pennsylvania Real Average Hourly Earnings Note: Growth rate is year-over-year. Average hourly earnings is deflated by Philadelphia

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RB-2016-02.pdf

Ðice March 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐2 March 2016 Economic Development Incentives Economic development incentives attempt to stimulate economic growth through various direct (e.g., expenditures) and indirect (e.g., tax credits) spending mechanisms. Many states publish comprehensive reports that or subsidize activities that may result in economic development. A program is included in this report if job creation, business growth or industry promotion is a primary objective. Some programs may eventually lead to economic development as a secondary effect, such

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QRR_2016Q1.pdf

16. ________________________________________ 2 See the Monthly Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year. Quarterly Revenue Review January to March 2016 Page 2 Table 2 contains detail on actual and projected growth rates of major revenue sources for the quarter and the fiscal year-to-date. Table 5 contains additional detail on specific General

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QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf

Non-motor sales tax collections were $20 million below estimate. After a strong July, this revenue source displayed only modest growth in August and September. • Personal income tax withholding collections, which were higher than normal due to an extra weekly due year due to the absence of the large, one-time transfers that occurred in July 2014. General Fund Collections and Growth Rates - July to September 2015 Revenue Collections ($ millions) Year-Over-Year Growth Rates Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Fiscal Yr

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QRR_2013Q4.pdf

14. ________________________________________ 2 See the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review October to December 2013 Page shortfall was partially offset by motor vehicle collections, which were $15 million above estimate. Sales and Use Tax Growth Rates Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year Nonmotor 1.1% 1.6% Motor 5.4 6.8 Total SUT 1.6 2.3 Personal

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

which is roughly $1.70 billion more than the projected increase in net revenues. The factors driving the unusually large growth in expenditures in the budget year are associated with more than $1.0 billion in one-time funding sources used expenditures.  Over the last four years of the forecast (FY 2020-21 through 2023-24), three factors drive lower growth in expenditures: (1) SERS and PSERS employer contribution rates stabilize, (2) a contraction of the school age population restrains the

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

February 27, 2018 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office CompetePA Retreat Economy, Revenues and Budget Pennsylvania economic growth rates or change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 2.3% Wages proposed severance tax)  Future years: potential deficits likely grow due to aging population, rising interest rates and modest revenue growth 1 Impact of Federal Tax Reform on Pennsylvania Anticipate large increase in PA disposable income for FY 2018-19 

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NGPR-2015-2H.pdf

of production in calendar year 2015. Producing Wells Table 1: Production Volume and Well Count July to December 2015 2014 Growth 2015 2014 Growth Volume (bcf) Horizontal 2,337.0 2,109.2 10.8% 4,566.9 4,027.7 13.4% Vertical

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

real GDP expanded at a 2.8% rate for 2018 Q3, compared to 3.4% for the U.S. These growth rates ex- clude inflation. If inflation is included (nominal GDP), then the growth rates increase to 4.6% (PA) and 4.9% (U.S.). For the first three quarters of 2018, real PA

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

2018: 69,100 (2018 Q1), 68,100 (2018 Q2), 65,000 (2018 Q3) and 56,700 (2018 Q4). Personal Income Growth Strong in 2018 Q4 On March 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data compo- nents growing by 4.0% (wages and salaries) and 4.3% (business income). For 2018 Q4 only, the respective growth rates were 4.4%, 4.2% and 4.7%. Philadelphia Regional Inflation Remains Subdued On March 12, the U.S

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

consumer debt data for the first quarter of 2018. On a year-over-year basis, the data reveal the following growth rates for total Pennsylvania consumer debt for the first quarter: student loans (5.0%), credit cards (4.7%), primary mortgages increased by 2.5%. By comparison, total debt of all U.S. consumers increased by 3.8%, driven by stronger growth for auto loans (5.3%) and primary mortgages (3.6%). - June 2018 - National News U.S. Job Openings Exceed the

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MRU_2022_04.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Apr Apr FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2022 2021 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $6,518.7 $3,962.4 $40,658.6 $32,676.4 64.5% 24.4% Total

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MRU_2022_03.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Mar Mar FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2022 2021 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $5,557.0 $4,842.7 $34,140.0 $28,714.0 14.8% 18.9% Total

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MRU_2022_02.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Feb Feb FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2022 2021 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,434.3 $2,683.8 $28,582.9 $23,871.3 -9.3% 19.7% Total

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MRU_2021_11.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Nov Nov FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $6,621.5 $2,338.8 $18,713.2 $14,845.4 183.1% 26.1% Total

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MRU_2021_10.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Oct Oct FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,814.1 $2,592.5 $12,091.7 $12,506.6 8.6% -3.3% Total

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MRU_2021_09.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Sept Sept FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $4,003.1 $3,261.8 $9,277.6 $9,914.2 22.7% -6.4% Total

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MRU_2021_08.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Aug Aug FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,574.3 $2,548.4 $5,274.5 $6,652.3 1.0% -20.7% Total

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MRU_2021_07.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source July July FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,700.2 $4,104.0 $2,700.2 $4,104.0 -34.2% -34.2% Total

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MRU_2021_05.pdf

February 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source May May FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund $3,947.3 $2,105.6 $36,623.6 $29,601.0 87.5% 23.7% Total

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MRU_2021_04.pdf

February 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Apr Apr FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund $3,962.4 $2,181.0 $32,676.4 $27,495.4 81.7% 18.8% Total

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MRU_2021_03.pdf

February 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Mar Mar FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund $4,842.7 $4,434.8 $28,714.0 $25,314.5 9.2% 13.4% Total

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MRU_2021_02.pdf

February 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Feb Feb FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund 2,683.8 2,167.5 23,871.3 20,879.6 23.8% 14.3% Total

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MRU_2021_01.pdf

January 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Jan Jan FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,658.3 $3,071.0 $21,187.5 $18,712.0 -13.4% 13.2% Total

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MRU_2020_11.pdf

August 2020. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Nov Nov FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2020 2019 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,338.5 $2,356.9 $14,845.1 $12,733.9 -0.8% 16.6% Total

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MRU-2022-01.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Jan Jan FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2022 2021 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $3,589.4 $2,658.3 $26,148.6 $21,187.5 35.0% 23.4% Total

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MRU-2021-12.pdf

August 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Dec Dec FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2021-22 2020-21 Growth Growth Total General Fund $3,846.0 $3,683.7 $22,559.2 $18,529.2 4.4% 21.7% Total

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MRU-2021-06.pdf

February 2021. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source June June FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2021 2020 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund $3,768.4 $2,674.8 $40,392.0 $32,275.9 40.9% 25.1% Total

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

June 2019. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Mar Mar FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2020 2019 2019-20 2018-19 Growth Growth Total General Fund $4,434.9 $4,552.9 $25,314.4 $24,749.7 -2.6% 2.3% Total

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

August 2020. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Dec Dec FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2020 2019 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund $3,681.4 $2,907.1 $18,526.5 $15,641.1 26.6% 18.4% Total

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

August 2020. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Sept Sept FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2020 2019 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund $3,261.7 $3,185.0 $9,914.1 $7,707.1 2.4% 28.6% Total

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MRU-2020-08.pdf

August 2020. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Aug Aug FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2020 2019 2020-21 2019-20 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,548.4 $2,192.9 $6,652.4 $4,522.1 16.2% 47.1% Total

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MRU-2020-06.pdf

June 2019. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source June June FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2020 2019 2019-20 2018-19 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,674.8 $3,078.6 $32,275.8 $34,857.9 -13.1% -7.4% Total

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MRU-2020-05.pdf

June 2019. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source May May FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2020 2019 2019-20 2018-19 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,105.6 $2,616.3 $29,600.9 $31,779.3 -19.5% -6.9% Total

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MRU-2020-04.pdf

June 2019. GENERAL FUND REVENUES SUMMARY Revenue Source Apr Apr FYTD FYTD Monthly FYTD 2020 2019 2019-20 2018-19 Growth Growth Total General Fund $2,180.9 $4,413.4 $27,495.4 $29,163.0 -50.6% -5.7% Total

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mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf

next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. “After adjusting for statutory changes, revenues have displayed no growth for the first seven months of the current fiscal year.” Knittel said. “For next year, revenues are projected to follow a low-growth pattern. Revenue increases from modest economic growth largely are offset by the absence of one- time measures used to boost

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

for CY 2013 and CY 2014 decreased in each year. The main cause of that trend was the strong production growth through those years. For CY 2015, the ETR rose dramatically due to low prices, which caused a significant decline in percentage points lower than the previous year. This decline was driven by the same scenario as CY 2017. The annual growth in the market value of unconventional natural gas production (55.3 percent) more than offset the $42.3 million increase

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

the ETR decreased in each year from CY 2015 to CY 2018. The main cause of this trend was significant growth in the market value of natural gas produced. Over that time period, the hub price of Pennsylvania natural gas increased by 191.3 percent and the production of natural gas throughout the state increased by 33.2 percent. The growth of these factors offset the growth in impact fee collections in CY 2017 and CY 2018. For CY 2019, the

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

self-employed. Age Group 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Total YOY Employment Growth 2019 Q4 3.7% -0.3% 0.9% 1.8% -1.6% 0.7% 6.2% 0.8% 2020 Q1 Note: Over 50 localities have adopted a minimum wage above their state's minimum wage. Projections use a 2.0% growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Source: The Economic Policy Institute. Minimum Wage Tracker (published January 7, 2021

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

agency or legislative staff that also work to measure program effectiveness in Washington State. Representative Keller expressed interest in expenditure growth in Pennsylvania as compared to other states. The U.S. Census Bureau compiles expenditure data by state. The Census defines 2014 to 2015. https://www.irs.gov/uac/soi-tax-stats-migration-data. 5 Table C Interstate Comparison of Expenditure Growth State 2012 2013 2014 AAGR 1 Pennsylvania $87,339,608 $87,532,654 $86,985,760 -0.2% Delaware $8

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Update Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | December 3, 2019 Number (000s) Change (000s) Average Ann Growth PA Demographic Forecast 2015 2020 2025 2015-20 2020-25 2015-20 2020-25 0 to 19 School Age 3 0.3% 2.4% Total 12,787 12,841 12,907 54 66 0.1% 0.1% Year-Over-Year Growth Rate, Change or Level PA Quarterly Economics 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Real

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

million by FY 2021-22 as one-time revenues expire and loan repayments and funding shifts take effect.  The growth rate for pension contributions moderates after FY 2017-18. While expenditures remain at historically high levels, the double-digit annual growth rates are projected to abate.  Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the

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Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

revenues and increases expenditures for FY 2015-16. • Mandated employer contributions for pensions continue to drive much of the expenditure growth in the near term. However, the annual growth begins to moderate after FY 2016-17. • Slow tax base erosion and “normal” expenditure growth become the primary drivers of

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2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

in estimated impact fee collections. Market value is projected to increase by 298.2% from the prior year, the strongest growth since the inception of the impact fee. This is due to a moderate rebound in statewide production growth (+7.2% year-over-year) combined with the highest regional prices in over three years. Operating Collections Year 1 Horizontal

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

and SERS Codes to permit maximum flexibility in asset allocation and selection of investment vehicles so as to achieve optimal growth in investment earnings and diversification of plan assets. Under the statutes governing each system, trustees and staff have a fiduciary private pension plans, and provides for flexibility in asset allocation and selection of investment vehicles so as to achieve further growth in investment earnings and diversification of plan assets. In enacting the “prudent person rule,” the General Assembly recognized the critical

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Testimony-02-2020.pdf

PA Economic Update Testimony for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | February 18, 2020 Annual Growth Rate or Change ANNUAL DATA 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 2 1.8% 3.7% -- Existing Home Values 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% -- Year-Over Year Growth Rate or Change QUARTERLY DATA 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Real GDP 2

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

High r Penn Wharton Budget Model 21 Percent Change from Current Law Penn Wharton Budget Model 22 Average Annual GDP Growth Rate (percentage point change) Years High return to capital Low return to capital 2018-2027 0.12% 0.06% 2028- 2040 0.03% 0.01% Below “0.40%” target (actual target: 0.55%) required to self-fund Lower long-run growth due to debt. Penn Wharton Budget Model 23 Cumulative Revenue (billions of $) Change in Debt (billions of $) Static Dynamic Static

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf

Budget. (The IFO is still finalizing projections for the proposed revenue modifications.) Outyear revenue collections are estimated by applying the growth rates published in the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 (published November are based on the current services methodology and underlying data described in the IFO’s Five- Year Outlook Report. Projected growth rates are a function of (1) service populations, (2) inflation and (3) various technical factors (e.g., an increased state

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 11 School Property Tax Forecast Recent school property tax growth rates based on reported data: FY 2006-07 5.9% FY 2007-08 4.6% FY 2008-09* 4.7% 2016-17 2017-18 Prior Year Adjusted 12,340 12,754 13,263 13,786 14,188 Act 1 Index Growth 164 239 259 251 249 Act 1 Exceptions 174 191 182 66 60 Act 1 Total Increase 338 430 441

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

2014-15 revenues were inflated by various non-recurring events,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2015-16 anticipate continued economic growth, but the absence of the one-time revenues received in the prior year reduces the overall rate of growth for the General Fund.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

3 to $4 million can be drawn down in federal funds for prevention services after accounting for the MOE requirement. Growth in federal reimbursement for prevention services is unclear because it depends on the number of programs added to the Clearinghouse Living (18+) 163 156 156 151 148 Total Congregate Care 4,379 4,164 3,806 3,543 3,257 Growth -4.9% -8.6% -6.9% -8.1% Note: Data for 2020 and 2021 are estimates. Federal Fiscal Year Impact

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Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf

from the estimates shown in the table. The future benefits and cost of this proposal will be affected by the growth of (1) populations within the aforementioned age and income ranges and (2) statewide property taxes. The IFO projects that through For this purpose, the IFO assumed an average gross cost of $1.35 billion for FY 2019-20 (which allows growth from the 2017 data used in the table from the previous page) and deducts $120 million due to relief already

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

will be needed to support the state’s pension obligations. Since FY 2015-16, Commonwealth pension obligations have outpaced revenue growth as FY 2019-20 obligations accounted for 10.2% of revenues versus 7.7% in FY 2015-16. This outcome billion prepayment in unfunded liability from The Pennsylvania State University. SERS 1 FY Annual Share of Ending SERS PSERS Total Growth Revenue 2016 $665 $1,719 $2,384 -- 7.7% 2017 784 2,064 2,848 19.5% 9.0 2018

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

2015 and 2019, Pennsylvania per capita debt grew at average rate of 2.5% per annum. Total per capita debt growth slowed to 0.6% in 2020 suggesting that stimulus funds likely reduced household borrowing pressures. Annual debt growth slowed across all major types of debt between 2019 and 2020, except for mortgage debt. Per capita credit card debt

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RB-2019-01.pdf

primary factor motivating the decline from CY 2017 was a 52 percent increase in market value, which was driven by growth in prices and production from CY 2017. The significant increase in market value more than offset the growth in impact fee collections, and yields a lower ETR. Endnotes 1. Data from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil

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perez ppt.pdf

face ongoing budget challenges. – State tax collections remain below pre-recession levels – Officials are concerned about the strength of economic growth – Questions remain about the impact of federal deficit reduction on state budgets – The total state budget gap: $527.7 billion State Budget Outlook: Strengths  State revenue performance (35 states and PR)  Budget reserves (AK, ME, NE)  Employment growth (MI, OK and VA)  Agricultural economy (IA, SD) Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, Fall 2011 FY

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Elevated blood lead levels can result in negative health out- comes such as behavioral and learning difficulties, anemia and impaired growth. Preventative care and screenings can identify health concerns and start treatment early, reducing the need for emergency care. Emergency Department It should be noted that, due to the vulnerability of the service population, the response rate is about 25%. However, growth in these percentages over time is the desired outcome. ▪ Untreated cervical and testicular cancers and sexually transmitted diseases (STD) can

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

cay and/or gum disease can pre- vent severe pain and infection that negatively impact quality of life, children’s growth, school attend- ance and performance. MA – Physical Health Services | Page 13 Share of Children Receiving Lead Screening Increase All Well can cause behavioral and learning difficulties, anemia, sei- zures and other medical problems, such as hearing problems and im- paired growth. MA – Physical Health Services | Page 14 Screening Rates Differ by MCO (2019) Women's Health Screenings Diverge Note: Breast cancer

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

to manage leases in a cost-effective manner. The attainment of those goals will be reflected through modest growth in lease expenses and cost savings relative to private alternatives. Resources 13-14 Actual 14-15 Actual 15-16 Actual 16-17 competing for Commonwealth contracting opportunities. Goals and Outcomes The goal of this activity is to promote the economic growth and success of small and diverse businesses by providing assistance in competing for Commonwealth contracts. The outcomes are measured by the num-

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NGPR-2015-1H.pdf

Gas Production Report January to June 2015 Table 1: Production Volume and Well Count Jan to June Jan to June Growth 2015 2014 2015 Volume (bcf) Horizontal 2,228.0 1,916.9 16.2% Vertical 18.7 23.8 -21 to June 2013 1,390.9 14.2 1,405.1 3,693 520 4,213 962 792 1,754 Growth 2014 37.8% 68.2% 38.1% 31.8% 2.9% 28.2% 6.9% 7.8% 7.3% Table

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NGPR-2015-09.pdf

Gas Production Report January to June 2015 Table 1: Production Volume and Well Count Jan to June Jan to June Growth 2015 2014 2015 Volume (bcf) Horizontal 2,228.0 1,916.9 16.2% Vertical 18.7 23.8 -21 to June 2013 1,390.9 14.2 1,405.1 3,693 520 4,213 962 792 1,754 Growth 2014 37.8% 68.2% 38.1% 31.8% 2.9% 28.2% 6.9% 7.8% 7.3% Table

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

of high quality data. Based on data available, the study found that narrow, firm-specific incentives appear to generate job growth within that targeted industry, but broader regional benefits are not realized. The study also found that larger, profitable firms often for 2019. Pennsylvania’s population grew by just 1,067 people, remaining relatively flat at 12.80 million. The population growth was primarily due to the number of births outpacing the number of deaths by 1,751. Net migration was estimated

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

Jersey (3.1%), Delaware (0.8%) and Maryland (0.6%). West Virginia was the only border state that had higher growth (6.2%) than Pennsylvania. Nationwide existing home price growth was 5.1% year-over-year. Opioid Crisis Impacts PA Productivity and Healthcare On June 4, the Federal Reserve Bank

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

trends will likely cause the U.S. to run out of individuals to join the workforce. U.S. popu- lation growth has failed to meet projections as the fertility rate (2.1 per 100,000 in 2007; 1.7 in 2018 and 2018, Susquehanna (11.7% per annum), Sullivan (7.4%) and Bradford (6.1%) Counties had the highest real GDP growth. Lehigh County was the only county that registered an annual decline (-1.8%) in real GDP. Overall, Pennsylvania’s real

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Early Data Show PA Economy Had Robust Growth in 2018 Q3 Four real-time data sources suggest that the Pennsylvania economy recorded robust growth for the third quarter of 2018. Based on non-motor sales tax collections, taxable consumer and business spending increased 8

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

Outlook: 2018 to 2028 The CBO updated its deficit projections from the previous release in June 2017 to show substantial growth in fed- eral debt levels over the next decade. Much of the deficit growth will occur in the next five years and then level off thereafter. The CBO also revised its projection for real

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Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf

0.2% -34 -0.1% Note: Forecasts are preliminary and will be revised later this month. AAGR is average annual growth rate during time period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. Annual Growth Rates of PA Economic Variables October 6, 2021 2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 1.4% 1.7%

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

 Unsurprisingly, no academic consensus  Some studies find significant, if small, negative relationships between marginal tax rates and economic growth at the state level  Others find none, or even a positive relationship. But…  Garbage in, garbage out  collections, but hard to know what’s driving.  Candidates: income shifting from ‘17 to ‘18; repatriation tax; legit economic growth. Why Bother Taxing Corporate Profits At All?  2/3 of corporate profit are never subject to personal income tax

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IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf

rate of 4.0 percent per annum, or roughly 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points higher than average revenue growth of 3.3 percent per annum. “The growth rate differential represents the implied structural imbalance over the previous five fiscal years. Although annual state budgets were brought into

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

net revenues and expenditures each increase at an average rate of 3.7 percent per annum.  Pennsylvania’s economic growth over the next decade is constrained by the projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64).  Demographic increase of 32.2 percent in the 65+ cohort through 2025. The increase in this cohort will (1) restrain the growth of tax revenues (personal income and sales) due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

will be nearly exhausted.  Mandated employer contributions for pensions and healthcare inflation continue to drive much of the expenditure growth in the five year projections.  The Pennsylvania economy will expand, but at a moderate pace. Long-term demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth.  The number of working-aged residents between ages 20 and 64 will remain flat between 2010 and 2020. The

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

shift largely captured August 19, 2020 1 Latest Real-Time PA Economic Data August 19, 2020 2 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 Real GDP 1.9% 2.3% 0.0% -- Wages Labor Statistics. Some Subsectors Hit Hard, but a Few Gain August 19, 2020 4 YOY Number Change (000s) YOY Percent Growth April May June April May June Full-Service Restaurants -158 -131 -95 -79.5% -64.9% -46.9% Amusements-Gaming

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2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

market value of natural gas increased at a rate (203.1 percent) that was significantly stronger than impact fee revenue growth (45.3 percent). For CY 2019, the ETR decreased 0.1 percentage points from the prior year to 2.1 price of gas. The projection assumes that CY 2020 production expands by 2.6 percent over 2019, the weakest production growth on record. Operating Collections Year 1 Horizontal Vertical Horizontal Vertical ($ millions) 1 475 0 $40,500 $8,100 $19.2

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

After a decade of extraordinary investment gains, the financial markets spoke of the “new paradigm:” an anticipation that double-digit growth would continue indefinitely. This was the argument that supported the benefit improvements of Act 9 of 2001, and the cost- mandated minimum municipal obligation (MMO), which resulted in short term reductions in annual contributions, but also contributed to the rapid growth in the unfunded liability from 2004 to 2008. As a result of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the City received

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

of the retirement systems. INDIRECT ACTUARIAL GAINS METHOD - allocates annual or cumulative actuarial gains attributable to favorable experience (investments, salary growth, mortality, etc.)to offset the COLA costs. This method was used in 9% of the retirement systems. Current Pennsylvania Practice the COLA payments are provided by reducing the annual or cumulative actuarial gains attributable to favorable experience with investments, salary growth, mortality, etc. Six retirement systems (9%) used this method to fund their COLA liabilities. Table V does not show the

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

percentile ranks over time will provide information on the relative performance of ECENC students and infor- mation on their academic growth. ▪ Based on data from approximately 925 students with assessment information from 2017-18 and 2018-19, there appears to be

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Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

November 14, 2019 Modernizing Pennsylvania’s Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Katherine Loughead Policy Analyst Center for State Tax Policy Tax Foundation kloughead@taxfoundation.org PENNSYLVANIA’S TAX CODE CONTAINS MULTIPLE

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to continue expanding in FY 2015-16,” Knittel said. “However, some of the revenue growth from improved economic activity simply will offset one- time, or non-recurring, revenues received in the current year.” Relative to

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

anomaly largely driven by temporary economic and technical factors,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2014-15 anticipate a return to growth due to improvements in the labor market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief

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Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf

amounts paid in school district and county and municipal property taxes. To extrapolate the estimates to future years, an annual growth rate of four to five percent could be used. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do

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RB-2015-04.pdf

projected wage distribution for calendar year 2017 that is used for the analysis. The projected wage distribution assumes overall employment growth of 0.9 percent per annum from 2014 to 2017 (roughly 53,000 new payroll jobs per year), but a

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort will (1) restrain tax revenues due to the changing income and spending patterns associated

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PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf

Higher Education. Pension Funding as Share of Total General Fund Revenues July 13, 2021 2 FYE SERS PSERS Total Annual Growth Share of Revenue 2016 $665 $1,719 $2,384 -- 7.7% 2017 784 2,064 2,848 19.5% 9

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PEW_Presentation(Video).pptx

How States Are Improving Tax Incentives for Jobs and Growth A national assessment of evaluation practices Chaaron Pearson cpearson@pewtrusts.org The Pew Charitable Trusts 11/16/2017 1 pewtrusts

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PEW_Presentation(Video).ppsx

How States Are Improving Tax Incentives for Jobs and Growth A national assessment of evaluation practices Chaaron Pearson cpearson@pewtrusts.org The Pew Charitable Trusts 11/16/2017 1 pewtrusts

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

million (2020). This occurred as investigations under the Prevailing Wage Law fell by one-third. The area with the largest growth in caseload was Child Labor Law enforcement. This area comprised only 2% of compliance workload in 2016 but grew to

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

to 10.1% in 2020. Trooper-citizen contact data are only available through 2019, but those data show that the growth in cit- izen complaints (70.8%) outpaced con- tacts (21.1%) from 2016 to 2019. There were 605 use of

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

4,383 4,413 4,274 Total 857,154 868,792 866,828 879,417 894,408 Annual Growth -- 1.4% -0.2% 1.5% 1.7% Note: A complete list of all licensee categories is included in the Appendix. 1

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

These data illustrate the disparity in funding across counties. Court Commitments 2015 Court Commitments 2016 Court Commitments 2017 Growth 2015-17 Lancaster 374 374 451 21% Bucks 289 284 348 20 Cumberland 93 95 107 15 Northampton 230 258 261 13

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

benchmark programs and practices of different juris- dictions. Therefore, the focus should be on the relative trends or growth rates between states because the data do not control for relevant factors such as income levels and varying program parameters. National Juvenile

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates or changes are year-over-year except Real GDP. Wage growth rates for 2021.2 and 2021.3 are estimates by IFO based on withholding data. Source: U.S. Bureau of

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novak ppt.pdf

tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further employment and spending cuts Gross Domestic Product Pennsylvania * 4-quarter growth rates in real terms Percent -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Personal Income GDP Personal income declined • Transfer

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

ETR for 2011 to 2014 decreased in each successive year. The main cause of that trend was the strong production growth through those years. For CY 2015, the ETR rose dramatically due to low prices, which caused a significant decline in

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

to the prior year. This is the weakest year-over-year increase in monthly production since August 2017. The slower growth comes as natural gas prices and drilling activity have declined in recent months. For the calendar year through March 20

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

Credit card balances more than 90 days delinquent grew 6.6% across all ages over the prior year, with significant growth in the age 18-29 category (21.7%). Federal Balance of Payments Estimated for Federal Fiscal Year 2018 The Office

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NewsStand_2019_September.pdf

compared to the same period last year. The decline in typical payments is due to lower mortgage rates and slower growth in home prices. The article states that homebuyers can expect lower typical mortgage payments through June 2020. According to IHS

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

August 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Women Drive 80% of Job Growth in Health Care since 2000 On August 14, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of full-time

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

employed (-2.0%) and partner- ships/S corporations (-1.1%). The broad decline was highly unusual given the solid economic growth for the U.S. and most states. Some analysts believe income was shifted out of the year in anticipation of

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

By comparison, per capita consumer debt for the U.S. increased by 3.5% from last year, led by strong growth in primary mortgage debt (3.4%). Pittsburgh, Philadelphia Named Most Undervalued Cities in U.S. On July 11, Smartasset released

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mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf

Non-Tax Revenue -160 No Oil & Gas Lease Fund transfer or casino license fees. Personal Income -55 Concerns about wage growth and strength of annual payment. Bank Shares -15 Overpayments from prior year will reduce cash remittances. Other -40 Mainly from

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

rate of 2.2 percent over the 2018–2022 period—but there is a roughly two-thirds chance that the growth would be between 0.8 percent and 3.5 percent. 19 CBO To make the federal budget and CBO’s

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

of proposed changes to statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to grow moderately in FY 2017-18,” Knittel said. “Revenue growth will be constrained by non-recurring revenues received in FY 2016-17 and various technical factors.” Relative to the Executive

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

CY 2012 to CY 2014 decreased in each successive year. The main cause of that trend was the strong production growth through those years. For CY 2015, the ETR rose dramatically due to low prices, which caused a significant decline in

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

ETR for 2011 to 2014 decreased in each successive year. The main cause of that trend was the strong production growth through those years. For CY 2015, the ETR rose dramatically due to low prices, which caused a significant decline in

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IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Mar_29_2022.pdf

2020 2021 2022 March 2022 $13.50 2021 Modeling 2022 $3.57 2025 $4.01 nominal prices 3 Net Generation Growth and Mix Net Generation was higher in 2021 than assumed by RGGI modeling for 2022. The EIA projects that regional

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House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf

finalized. Pension Funding as Share of Total General Fund Revenues August 19, 2021 3 FY Ends SERS PSERS Total Annual Growth Share of Revenue 2016 $665 $1,719 $2,384 -- 7.7% 2017 784 2,064 2,848 19.5% 9

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

criminal justice cost savings. Additionally, recreational marijuana represents a new retail industry, which can lead to job creation and economic growth. I hope you find the information useful. Per office policy, we will plan to post this response to our website

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

738 2,829 2,934 Total 2,848 3,120 3,361 3,519 3,639 3,728 3,883 Growth Rate 19.5% 9.7% 7.7% 4.7% 3.4% 2.4% 4.2% 1 Excludes any pension expenses

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

years ago •Details are in the appendix 13 * 30-year closed-period level percentage of pay, 7.5% interest, 3% growth 14 Even if plans hit compound-return targets over 30 years, it will be a roller coaster ride. How will

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Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf

published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Quarterly wages and salaries were used to determine the annual growth by fiscal year from FY 1 Act of Jun. 30, 2011, P.L. 148, No. 25 (amending the Taxpayer Relief

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2019-Pub-2.pdf

on the outlook will also be discussed. Katherine Loughead, Tax Foundation: Modernizing Pennsylvania's Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy: Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

and 4,004 surviving spouses). Additional financial actuarial assumptions include an interest rate of 5.0% per year and payroll growth of 3.3% per year. The demographic assumptions for compensation increases, withdrawal, retirement, disability, and mortality are those used for

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

unclassified public employees, or highly compensated elected or appointed officials. In recent years, however, the DC approach has seen significant growth, although the DB approach continues to predominate in public sector retirement systems. In the course of its research, the Commission

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