Your search for impact returned 541 results.

2022 Impact Fee Estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2022 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2023). Collections are estimated to be $274.8 million, an increase of $40.4 million from the prior year. Tags: fee, gas, impact, natural
2021 Impact Fee Estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2021 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2022). Collections are estimated to be $233.8 million, an increase of $87.6 million from the prior year. Tags: fee, gas, impact
Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. Tags: brief, economic, federal, impact, research, stimulus
May 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 05/23/2023
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2023-24 Executive Budget released March 2023. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 05/03/2023
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/25/2023
Expiration of the Enhanced FMAP The IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after. The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout. 04/06/2023
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/04/2023
Emergency Rental Assistance Ends The IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state. 03/06/2023
Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51, the Commonwealth will use $46.5 billion in General Fund revenues (2.3%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions. 03/01/2023
impact of Proposed Changes to the NOL Cap The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Senator Pennycuick. The letter contains projections for the impact of proposed changes to the amount of taxable income that C corporations may offset through net operating loss deductions. 02/24/2023
Post-Pandemic Child Care Cliff The IFO posted a second research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the impact that nearly $820 million in federal support had on the child care industry and its employees, and the funding cliff the industry will encounter in the near future. 02/23/2023
SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February The IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief quantifies the impact from the end of SNAP emergency allotments in February 2023. This research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child. 01/27/2023
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions. 12/01/2022
2022 impact Fee Estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2022 impact Fee collections (remitted April 2023). Collections are estimated to be $274.8 million, an increase of $40.4 million from the prior year. 10/31/2022
Do SNAP Changes impact Work Incentives? A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives. 09/29/2022
Student Loan Debt Forgiveness The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. 08/31/2022
impact Fee Update and Outlook 2022 This update examines 2021 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2022. The Commonwealth collected $234.4 million in impact fees for 2021, an $88.2 million increase from 2020. 06/21/2022
Financial impact of SERS Pre-Funding Option The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021. 06/09/2022
Inflation's impact on the Pennsylvania Economy On June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget. 06/07/2022
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2022-23 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/08/2022
Assumptions Used by RGGI Model Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony on the model assumptions used by a consultant to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania from joining RGGI. This written testimony was updated on November 4, 2022, to include clarifications for the third and sixth bullets on page 1. 03/28/2022
House Budget Hearing Request The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question relates to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment by race. 03/21/2022
Is the Student Loan Moratorium impacting Employment? The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. 03/08/2022
COVID-19 impact ON PENNSYLVANIA DEATHS This research updates a prior release (September 2021) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. The analysis finds 19,800 excess deaths in 2020 and estimates 18,900 excess deaths for 2021.  02/11/2022
2021 impact Fee Estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2021 impact Fee collections (remitted April 2022). Collections are estimated to be $233.8 million, an increase of $87.6 million from the prior year. 01/18/2022
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's updated forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2020-21 to FY 2025-26. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019-20 current-year property tax collections, (2) the impact from FY 2021-22 millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 Index projection. 11/08/2021
Inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension Benefits The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of inflation on the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers and the real value of public pension benefits. 10/19/2021
COVID-19 impact on Pennsylvania Deaths This research brief uses preliminary data for 2020 and 2021 (through September) to compute excess deaths above pre-COVID historical trends in the Commonwealth for those two years. The analysis finds 20,700 excess deaths in 2020 and projects 6,700 excess deaths for 2021. 09/30/2021
UGSOA Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the United Government Security Officers of America (UGSOA). 09/27/2021
impact Fee Update and Outlook 2021 This update examines 2020 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2021. The Commonwealth collected $146.3 million in impact fees for 2020, a $54.1 million decrease from 2019 and the lowest amount since the fee's inception. 06/09/2021
Economic impact of Federal Stimulus This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. 05/10/2021
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2021-22 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/22/2021
impact of COVID-19 on the State Economy Director Matthew Knittel gave a brief presentation to the Senate Majority Policy Committee on the impact of COVID-19 on the state economy. 04/13/2021
Senate Budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment based on gender, net domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states. 04/09/2021
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.) 02/24/2021
2020 impact Fee Estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2020 impact Fee collections (remitted April 2021). Collections are estimated to be $144.9 million, a decrease of $55.9 million from the prior year. 01/05/2021
PPP Loans to Pennsylvania Businesses This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. 12/08/2020
UGSOA Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the United Government Security Officers of America (UGSOA). 11/12/2020
impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion.  This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.   10/13/2020
COVID-19 impact on Local Revenues In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office examined how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year. 07/16/2020
Pennsylvania impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends Presentation Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to the Center for Energy Policy and Management at Washington & Jefferson College regarding regional natural gas trends and how they are affecting the state's impact Fee. 07/14/2020
PSEA Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania State  Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Unit. 07/02/2020
Economic impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products. 06/30/2020
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association (PSCOA). 06/26/2020
impact Fee Update and 2020 Outlook This report examines impact fee collections for 2019 and provides an outlook for 2020. 06/25/2020
May 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. 06/01/2020
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/23/2020
Projected Revenue impact of COVID-19 The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy. 04/08/2020
Family First Prevention Services Act Preliminary Analysis In response to a legislative request, the IFO conducted a preliminary analysis on the state and county impacts of the Family First Prevention Services Act. 03/04/2020
CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Correctional Vocational Education Association (CIVEA). 02/27/2020
Testimony on Combined Reporting Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony to the Senate Democratic Policy Committee regarding the potential impact of combined reporting on corporate net income tax revenues. 01/29/2020
2019 impact Fee Estimate This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2019 impact Fee collections. Collections are estimated to be $198.2 million, a decrease of $53.6 million from the prior year. 01/09/2020
ALES Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Association of Liquor Enforcement Officers (ALES). 11/06/2019
OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU). 11/06/2019
PDA Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Doctors Alliance (PDA). 11/06/2019
SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare. 11/06/2019
Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief related to the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program. The brief provides historical data of the program and examines the potential impact of proposed legislation. This research brief was updated November 12, 2019 to take Act 43 of 2019 into consideration. 10/31/2019
PLEA Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Liquor Enforcement Association (PLEA). 10/11/2019
FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP). 10/11/2019
Minimum Wage Increase Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that expands upon a prior analysis on the impact of a proposed minimum wage increase. 10/10/2019
ISSU Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Independent State Stores Union (ISSU). 09/13/2019
UFCW Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and UFCW. 08/13/2019
SEIU Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and SEIU. 08/13/2019
AFSCME Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and AFSCME. 08/13/2019
impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook This report examines impact fee collections for 2018 and provides an outlook for 2019. 06/28/2019
PA Economy League Presentation In partnership with the Pennsylvania Economy League, Director Matthew Knittel and Deputy Director Brenda Warburton will make multiple presentations on raising the state minimum wage to $12.00 per hour. The presentation examines the proposed minimum wage’s impact on employment, worker incomes, prices and state spending. 05/01/2019
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."   03/22/2019
2018 impact FEE ESTIMATE - JANUARY 2019 This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2018 impact Fee collections. 01/24/2019
Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update- August 2018 In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy. 08/24/2018
impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook This report examines 2017 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2018. 06/28/2018
Federal Tax Code Conformity Analysis The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the General Fund revenue impact from conformity with certain federal tax code provisions. 04/27/2018
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  04/18/2018
Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate.  04/11/2018
Fiscal impact of School Property Tax Rebates In response to a legislative request, the IFO estimated the fiscal impact of a school property tax rebate for all homesteads. The rebate would be equal to the statewide average school property tax paid by homesteads. The response includes both baseline estimates for currently eligible homesteads and estimates for a behavioral effect based on the filing of additional homestead applications in response to the availability of rebates. 03/13/2018
IFO Update on Selected Fiscal Topics and Pennsylvania Demographics Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) Pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017.  03/09/2018
UGSOA Wage Contract Analysis Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act. 03/08/2018
ALES Wage Contract Analysis Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act. 02/16/2018
Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/29/2018
2017 impact Fee Estimate - January 2018 This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2017 impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. Revised for technical factor on 2/22/2018. 01/19/2018
Child Care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania The report provides an overview of the economic impacts of state spending on subsidized child care and no-cost pre-kindergarten programs in Pennsylvania. 09/06/2017
Like-Kind Exchange Analysis The IFO responds to a request regarding the economic benefit and tax revenue impact from eliminating Pennsylvania personal income tax on like-kind exchanges. 07/10/2017
impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook This research brief examines 2016 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2017.  07/04/2017
Actuarial impact of Act 5 - School District Pension Contributions Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association (PSBA) regarding the impact of recently enacted pension legislation (Act 5 of 2017) on school district pension contributions. 06/28/2017
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017) 04/05/2017
Philadelphia Cigarette & Beverage Tax impact The IFO responds to a request regarding the impact of Philadelphia’s local cigarette and beverage taxes on state revenue collections. The letter has been revised to include current footnotes 3 and 6, which provide additional context for the assumptions used by the analysis.  (Revised on March 20, 2017) 03/13/2017
PFBC Wage Contract Analysis Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act. 02/02/2017
2016 impact Fee Estimate - January 2017 This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2016 impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. 01/02/2017
AFSCME Wage Contract Analysis Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act. 09/27/2016
SEIU Wage Contract Analysis Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act. 09/27/2016
Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget.  08/24/2016
impact Fee Update and 2016 Outlook This research brief examines 2015 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2016.  07/14/2016
The impact of Demographics on General Fund Revenues and Expenditures Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the 2016 Pennsylvania Data User Conference regarding the impact of demographics on General Fund revenues and expenditures. 05/12/2016
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  04/21/2016
impact Fee Update - February 2016 This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2015 impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania.  02/29/2016
Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of the proposal to 1) raise the Pennsylvania state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and 2) automatically adjust future minimum wage levels to offset inflation. 11/30/2015
impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 06/25/2015
impact Fee Update - February 2015 This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 02/27/2015
Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison This report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections) 03/17/2014
Analysis of Michigan Property Tax Reform This report presents the results from an analysis of the Michigan property tax reform known as Proposal A. Enacted in 1994, Proposal A replaced all local property taxes used for school operating purposes with higher sales and use, realty transfer and tobacco taxes. It also created a distinction between homestead and nonhomestead property to facilitate the statewide levy of uniform property taxes on those classes of property. The report makes extensive use of data published by various Michigan executive and legislative agencies to illustrate the impact of property tax reform on tax revenues, millage rates, per pupil funding levels and the property tax base over the past two decades. 09/16/2013
Uncapping the Film Production Tax Credit: A Fiscal and Economic Analysis This report presents the results of an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on the fiscal and economic impacts of eliminating the cap on Pennsylvania’s film production tax credit (FPTC). The report also considers stand-alone tax credits for post-production and digital interactive media services. 05/31/2013
An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania Estimates the fiscal and economic impact of expanding Medicaid (Medical Assistance) under the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). The scope of the analysis is limited to the impact of Medicaid expansion; it does not address the costs, savings or economic effects of the ACA generally. 04/22/2013
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Act 20 of 2019 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to “evaluate the economic impact to the Com- monwealth, its industry partners and consumers for any regulation impacting single-use plastics, reusable plastics, auxiliary containers, wrappings or polystyrene containers and submit a full report of its findings to the General Hits: 162
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf A Report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Concerning Restrictive Investment Mandates and their Potential Impact upon the Public School Employees’ Retirement System and the State Employees’ Retirement System S P E C I A L RETIREMENT SYSTEMS A Report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Concerning Restrictive Investment Mandates and their Potential Impact upon the Public School Employees’ Retirement System and the State Employees’ Retirement System Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Hits: 147
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various Income Tax ........................................................................................................ 3 Proposal Highlights ......................................................................................................................... 3 Background and State Comparison .................................................................................................. 4 Combined Reporting Base Expansion Analysis ................................................................................. 5 Combined Reporting Revenue Impacts in Other States ..................................................................... 7 Revenue Impact .............................................................................................................................. 8 Factors that Impact the Revenue Estimate ........................................................................................ 9 Personal Income Tax Proposal................................................................................................ 15 Proposal Hits: 130
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf liability. See pages 2 to 7 for a summary of the legislation. The analysis of the proposal is summarized below. Impacts are presented in nominal dollars (cash flow) and present values computed at a discount rate of 3.6%. Employer Contributions Employees’ Retirement Code and the State Employ- ees’ Retirement Code (Codes). The following sections summarize the bill and discuss the impact of the proposal. The appendix and glossary at the end of this transmittal document provide context for these sections with Hits: 123
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf 4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources Wage Studies ...................................................................................................... 20 Border County Comparison ............................................................................................................ 23 Workers Affected by a $12 per Hour Minimum Wage ....................................................................... 25 Employment Impact from a $12 per Hour Minimum Wage ............................................................... 27 Income Effects for Affected Workers .............................................................................................. 28 General Price Impact ..................................................................................................................... 30 Impact on State and Hits: 115
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf 4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources a $12 per Hour Minimum Wage ....................................................................... 19 Businesses Affected by a $12 per Hour Minimum Wage ................................................................... 22 Employment Impact from a $12 per Hour Minimum Wage ............................................................... 23 Income Effects for Affected Workers .............................................................................................. 25 General Price Impact ..................................................................................................................... 26 Impact on General Fund Hits: 79
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Employment Trends ......................................................................................................... 11 Industry Output Trends ................................................................................................................. 13 Film Production Tax Credit Studies Across States ............................................................................. 15 Section 4: Economic Impact and Metrics ............................................................................... 17 Cost Profile for Pennsylvania Productions ........................................................................................ 17 Direct Spending in Pennsylvania due to the FPTC ............................................................................ 18 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 20 Sensitivity of Results ...................................................................................................................... 22 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 23 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 23 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 23 Key Decision Points ....................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix Hits: 65
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analy- sis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This analysis uses various data sources Wage ....................................................................................... 15 Minimum Wage Across States ................................................................................. 16 Workers Directly Affected by a Higher Minimum Wage ........................................... 19 Potential Employment Impact of a Higher Minimum Wage ...................................... 22 Income Effects for Affected Workers ........................................................................ 24 Potential Implications for General Fund Revenues .................................................. 26 A Final Note Hits: 64
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf offer programs with similar goals and objectives, but requirements are generally unique to each state. The eco- nomic impact of these programs can be measured by determining the amount of direct capital investment incentivized and calculating the impact on the state economy. The KIZ Tax Credit generates additional impacts because the program incubates qualified high-tech firms and requires that Hits: 53
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf Purpose .......................................................................................................................... 5 Administration ................................................................................................................................. 6 Historical Data ................................................................................................................................ 7 Section 3: State Comparison .................................................................................................. 13 Research and Development Tax Credit ........................................................................................... 13 Impact on Corporate Effective Tax Rate .......................................................................................... 15 Research and Development Spending Trends .................................................................................. 16 Research and Development Employment Trends ............................................................................. 17 State Comparison Summary ........................................................................................................... 19 Section 4: Economic Analysis ................................................................................................. 21 Key Findings from RDTC Studies .................................................................................................... 21 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 23 Analysis Caveats............................................................................................................................ 27 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 29 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 29 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 30 Key Decision Points ....................................................................................................................... 31 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 32 Hits: 52
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf greater incentive for, equip- ment that is deployed in unserved/underserved areas and meets minimum speed requirements. The impact of these broadband incentives can be measured in two parts: (1) the impact of the new or expanded service on the affected population and (2) the impact of the direct capital investment on the state Hits: 51
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf Independent Fiscal Office June 2018 1 Impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Hits: 47
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf Independent Fiscal Office June 2019 1 Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Hits: 41
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf 3: State Tax Credit Comparison ................................................................................ 11 Section 4: Economic Analysis and Issues............................................................................... 15 Technical Issues That Affect Economic Impact ................................................................................ 15 Two State Comparisons Using Federal Tax Credit Data .................................................................... 18 Modest Tax Credit Precludes Pennsylvania Economic Analysis .......................................................... 22 Positive Spillover Effects from of this review, the term “goal” reflects a broad, long-term outcome. 4 “Annual Report on the Economic Impact of the Federal Historic Tax Credit for Fiscal Year 2017,” U.S. National Park Service (September 2018). Overview of the HPTC | Page Hits: 40
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf that have not implemented policy changes related to aircraft (control states). Finally, the analysis derives the static revenue impact from an SUT exemption for aircraft and examines the number of job gains necessary to offset the static revenue loss due to Page 1 Proposed Sales Tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair This report analyzes the potential impact from the enactment of a broad Sales and Use Tax (SUT) exemption for the sale or use of aircraft, aircraft parts and Hits: 40
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf Environmental Regulation ........................................................................................................... 13 Federal and State Programs .................................................................................................... 15 Abandoned Mine Land Reclamation Program ................................................................................ 15 Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards .......................................................................................... 17 Economic Impact .................................................................................................................... 19 Industry Inputs, Output and Capacity Utilization ........................................................................... 19 Industry Concentration ............................................................................................................... 21 Fossil Fuel Generation Sector ....................................................................................................... 22 Industry Employment and Wages ................................................................................................ 23 Average and Breakeven Prices ..................................................................................................... 24 Economic Impact of CRER Tax Credit ........................................................................................... 27 Avoided Costs and Unrecognized Positive Externalities ................................................................... 29 Tax Credit Plan ........................................................................................................................ 31 General Findings ........................................................................................................................ 31 Specific Hits: 39
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other Hits: 39
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf Independent Fiscal Of Ðice July 2017 1 Research Brief 2017‐3 July 2017 Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Hits: 39
Independent Fiscal Office Economic Update Revenue & Economic Update May 23, 2023 The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. ... (Full Report) Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement Revenue Estimates May 17, 2023 The IFO will release its Initial B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." ... (Full Report) April 2023 Hits: 39
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf re- fundable credits, at a rate of $1,000 per job for up to three years. The economic impact of any job creation program is largely dependent on whether the jobs associated with the program would have been created in the Data ........................................................................................................................ 7 Section 3: State Tax Credit Comparison ................................................................................ 11 Section 4: Economic Analysis ................................................................................................. 13 Key Assumption ............................................................................................................................ 13 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 15 Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 17 Other Possible Impacts Associated with JCTC .................................................................................. 18 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 19 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 19 Specific Recommendations Hits: 38
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf 9 Industry Employment Trends ......................................................................................................... 10 Literature Review .......................................................................................................................... 12 Section 4: Economic Analysis ................................................................................................. 13 Video Game Project Cost Profile ..................................................................................................... 13 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 14 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 19 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 19 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 20 Key Decision Points ....................................................................................................................... 21 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 21 Appendix The credit seeks to generate economic activity in the video game and related sectors and to enhance the long-term impact of that activity. The general findings of this report are as follows:  Nineteen states offer one or more incentives Hits: 37
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the economic impact due to the transfer of funds directly to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups are based on the Hits: 37
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf Independent Fiscal Office | June 2021 Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other Hits: 37
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf total) of the KSDZ Tax Credit. As a result, this analysis has been updated to include historical data, an economic impact analysis and revised recommendations. Pennsylvania is one of 11 states that offer a tax credit to incentivize brownfield remediation and increase program participation.  KSDZ Tax Credits should be subject to annual program and project caps to limit the potential impact on tax revenues. General Findings and Recommendations | Page 8 - This page intentionally left blank. - Section 1: Introduction | Page 9 Section Hits: 34
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf monthly and fiscal year‐to‐date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year.  Annual Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage.  Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report Hits: 33
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf Data ................................................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: State Comparison ................................................................................................... 13 Key Findings from Other State Studies ............................................................................................ 15 Section 4: Economic Analysis .................................................................................................. 17 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 17 Non-Economic Impacts .................................................................................................................. 20 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ....................................................................................................... 21 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 21 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 22 Key Decision Points ....................................................................................................................... 23 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 23 Appendix Hits: 32
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. The fee is administered where natural gas extraction took place. Distributions for the last four calendar years are shown in Table 1. The annual impact fee for an unconventional natural gas well is determined according to a bracketed schedule, based on the number of years Hits: 32
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of business closures, other mitigation efforts and increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. A separate report that describes 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on economic growth for calendar years (CY) 2020 and 2021. For most of 2020 Q1, nearly all national and state economic metrics Hits: 31
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf 12 Revenue Uncertainty for FY 2017‐18 13 Major Revenue Sources Over Time 14 State Comparison ‐ Tax Burdens 15 Simulation: Impact of Federal Tax Reform 16 Pennsylvania Federal Income Tax Data (2015) 17 Natural Gas Trends Production, Price and Impact Fee Trends 18 Historical Spot Prices 19 Impact Fee Research Brief 20 PSERS and SERS Trends Employer Contribution Rates 22 Hits: 31
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf Change From Prior Year ......................................... 4 Recent Pennsylvania Economic Trends ..................................................................... 5 Actual and Projected Federal Relief for Pennsylvania ................................................. 6 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth Rates ........................................................... 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ........................................................................ 8 Net Domestic Migration Trends ................................................................................ 9 PA Labor Force Participation Rates ......................................................................... 10 Fund Revenue Projections ......................................................................... 12 General Fund Financial Statement Comparison ........................................................ 13 General Fund Education Expenditures .................................................................... 14 School District Property Tax ................................................................................... 15 Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends ....................................................................... 16 State and Local Tax Burden: Average Tax Rate and Rank ........................................ 17 SERS and PSERS Hits: 31
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf 3: State Comparison .................................................................................................. 11 Literature Review .......................................................................................................................... 12 Section 4: Economic Analysis ................................................................................................. 13 Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Cost Profile ............................................................ 13 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 14 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 19 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 19 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 20 Key Decision Points ....................................................................................................................... 20 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 21 Appendix the tax credit program. ▪ Tours and rehearsals are highly mobile and it is likely that the credit has a material impact on location decisions. ▪ For less established performers, the tax credit may provide greater incentives by making a tour more financially Hits: 30
2002_dbdc_report.pdf investment earnings over the period of employment. The fixed benefit in a DB pension plan means that the investment experience impacts the contribution requirements, increasing them when earnings are lower and decreasing them when earnings are higher. The fixed contributions in a DC pension plan mean that the investment experience impacts on the benefit amount, increasing it when earnings are higher and reducing it when earnings are lower. Therefore, the employer Hits: 30
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various 7 Raise the Minimum Wage ......................................................................................................... 9 Comparison of State Minimum Wage Rates ....................................................................................... 9 Distribution of Hourly Wage Rates .................................................................................................. 11 Employment Impact ...................................................................................................................... 13 Income and Revenue Impacts ........................................................................................................ 15 - This page intentionally left blank. - Introduction | Page 1 Introduction This report provides revenue estimates Hits: 29
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf Federal funds subject to General Fund appropriation are stated separately. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of business closures, other mitigation efforts and increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. A separate report that describes 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on economic growth for calendar years (CY) 2020 and 2021. For most of 2020 Q1, nearly all national and state economic metrics Hits: 28
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other Hits: 28
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf Q1 and Q2 Wages and Salaries growth rate based on withholding revenues through May. Economic Outlook | Page 4 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth and Tax Revenues On May 11, 2023, the Biden administration declared an end to the COVID-19 health emergency. During the emergency, numerous federal programs injected nearly $200 billion into the state economy, which had a dramatic impact on General Fund revenues. Table 1.5 displays four-year cumulative growth rates for economic, financial and General Fund revenues Hits: 27
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf Independent Fiscal Office January 2020 1 2019 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Hits: 27
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) undertook an analysis of state corporate net income tax (CNIT) rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. House Bill 130 of 2017 reduces the Pennsylvania CNIT which is equal to the federal CNIT rate for most corporate income. The ETR in Table 1 reflects the net impact of the federal tax system. For example, if state CNIT is equal to $100, that payment is deductible and reduces Hits: 27
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other Hits: 27
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf and Recommendations .................................................................................. 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 PRM Tax Credit Overview ......................................................................................................... 5 Goals and Purpose ........................................................................................................................ 5 Administration .............................................................................................................................. 6 State Comparison ...................................................................................................................... 7 Economic Impact ...................................................................................................................... 9 Petrochemical Industry ................................................................................................................. 9 Determining the Economic Impact ............................................................................................... 11 Projected Employment ................................................................................................................ 12 Key Findings from Petrochemical Industry Studies ......................................................................... 13 Tax Credit Plan ........................................................................................................................ 15 General Findings ........................................................................................................................ 15 Specific Recommendations Hits: 26
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) official General Fund revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 to reflect the projected impact from COVID-19 and provide a preview of revenue estimates for FY 2020-21. The estimates represent potential outcomes based official revenue estimates earlier this year. Through March, actual revenues exceeded the IFO official estimate by roughly $165 million if impacts related to COVID-19 are excluded. The overage was attributable to inheritance tax revenues ($101 million) and escheats collections ($118 Hits: 26
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf domestic migration incentives and health care. 1 Page 2 of the Pennsylvania Demographic Outlook notes that since the COVID-19 impact on overall deaths and births remains unknown, it is not explicitly built into the demographic projections. That report used data a reduction in outflows from net domestic migration.  Although not shown explicitly in the table, declining college enrollment also impacts state demo- graphic trends. Pennsylvania typically receives a large influx of non-resident students who attend college. The temporary students Hits: 26
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other Hits: 25
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. – SERS Stress Test Impact Analysis | Page 1 SERS Stress Test Impact Analysis Introduction Act 128 of 2020 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to summarize the results from the annual State Hits: 24
NGIFE-2015.pdf Independent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐1 February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐3, which reported unconventional gas well impact fee collections for calendar year (CY) 2014 along with three potential scenarios for CY 2015 collections (to be remitted in Hits: 24
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf 2022-23, tax revenues expand by only 0.4% ($165 million, excludes a $2.41 billion ARP transfer) as the impact of $120 billion of federal stimulus dis- bursed to Pennsylvania residents and businesses wanes. From FY 2022-23 to FY migration. ▪ As of the release of this report, full-year data are not available on how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted net migration for 2020 and 2021 and births in 2021. Preliminary data on COVID-related deaths are available for 2020 Hits: 24
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after data. The data show the following trends: ▪ State personal income expanded rapidly in 2020 Q2 and Q3 due to economic impact payments and extra UC payments of $600 or $300 per week. 1 Regarding the inability to work due to lack Hits: 22
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf 12, 2019 Page 2  The expansion of the supplemental rebate for homeowners currently eligible for a base rebate would impact 193,013 homeowners through new or higher supplemental rebates ($215.5 million).  The expansion of the supplemental rebate for rebates ($55.6 million).  The expansion of the supplemental rebate for homeowners currently eligible for a base rebate would impact 193,013 homeowners through new or higher supplemental rebates ($271.9 million).  The expansion of the supplemental rebate for Hits: 22
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Appropriations Act. The report also provides detail on the revenue impact of increased federal funding related to the outbreak of COVID-19. Estimates for the Lottery Fund represent net revenues after data. The data show the following trends: ▪ State personal income expanded rapidly in 2020 Q2 and Q3 due to economic impact payments and extra UC payments of $600 or $300 per week. 1 Regarding the inability to work due to lack Hits: 22
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf review for the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on the cost and environmental impact of agricultural best manage- ment practices (BMPs) for reducing water pollution, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency to eligible farmers/landowners or project sponsors for the implementation of best management prac- tices (BMPs) that reduce the environmental impact of the agricultural industry. The credit is equal to 50 to 75 percent of the BMP-eligible project costs and Hits: 20
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf Recommendations .................................................................................. 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 WDTC Overview ........................................................................................................................ 5 Goals and Purpose ........................................................................................................................ 5 Administration .............................................................................................................................. 6 Historical Data ............................................................................................................................. 8 State Comparison .................................................................................................................... 11 Economic Impact .................................................................................................................... 13 Other Impacts and Positive Externalities ....................................................................................... 13 Tax Credit Plan ........................................................................................................................ 15 General Findings ........................................................................................................................ 15 Specific Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 16 Key Decision Points .................................................................................................................... 17 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 17 Hits: 19
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf is still in the early stages of the program, the IFO does not have sufficient data to compute an economic impact or return on investment (ROI). ▪ Evaluations of similar programs in other states find concerns regarding program effectiveness and efficiency. ▪ Rural program would be more effective as a loan program administered by DCED. ▪ Additional funds should not be allocated until the impact of the initial $30 million in tax credits can be fully assessed. General Findings and Recommendations | Page 2 - This page Hits: 19
NGIFE-2018.pdf Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2018-2 January 2018 2017 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This Hits: 19
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf page intentionally left blank. - List of Materials Included Independent Fiscal Office – Overview ........................................................................ 1 Independent Fiscal Office – Expenditures ................................................................... 2 Economics – COVID Impact on PA Jobs ...................................................................... 3 Economics – Jobs and Labor Force Participation ......................................................... 4 Economics – Inflation and General Economics ............................................................ 5 Economics – Pandemic Relief Death Estimate ................. 8 Demographics – Net Domestic Migration Trends ......................................................... 9 Revenues – Fiscal Year to Date ................................................................................ 10 Revenues – General Fund Projections ...................................................................... 11 Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends ......................................................................... 12 State and Local Tax Burden ..................................................................................... 13 Corporate Net Income Tax State Comparison ........................................................... 14 State Hits: 19
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf Expenditure Outlook ............................................................................................................ 25 Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 34 Technical Appendix ..................................................................................................................... 36 1 Executive Summary This report discusses economic and demographic trends that will impact the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition during the next five fiscal years. Highlights and conclusions are as follows: Economic Trends The be used as point estimates of future outcomes. Method of Presentation In order to illustrate broad trends and convey their impact, it is useful to provide both historical and relative context. Historical context helps readers determine if trends are new or Hits: 19
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf other costs and Pennsylvania has the highest allow- ance at 20%. This analysis examined available data and other issues that impact the effectiveness of the Educational Tax Credits. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report similar tax credits and an overview of key findings from other state studies. Section 4 contains a discussion of the impact of the program on the state economy. Section 5 concludes with the tax credit plan, as required by Act 48 Hits: 18
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf of the video game production industry ▪ KSDZ – redevelopment of former industrial sites Many positive outcomes cannot be easily measured ▪ Social impacts (i.e., positive externalities or spillovers) ▪ Enhanced property values ▪ Health benefits of cleaner environment April 26, 2021 1 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis has 3 key steps ▪ What share of spending is incentivized by the tax credit? ▪ What type of spending and Hits: 18
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf The data suggest that the state will face unique short- and long-term challenges due to the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. At this point, it is not known whether the federal government will enact additional stimulus. If stimulus 19 pandemic and related mitigation efforts and (2) state and federal unemployment com- pensation payments plus the economic impact payments received by Pennsylvania residents. The IFO estimates that wage and salary income declines by roughly $20.8 billion in CY 2020 Hits: 18
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf discussion of the REHP, including current program benefits, administration and financing, presents the Commission’s findings on the potential cost impact of extending eligibility for subsidized healthcare benefits to spouse beneficiaries through the REHP, and addresses associated implementation and funding issues Table of Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Part I – Retired Employee Health Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part II – Projected Cost Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Part III – Legal, Eligibility and Administrative Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Part IV – Commission Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Part V – Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Appendix I Hits: 18
RB-2019-01.pdf Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2019-1 January 2019 2018 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This Hits: 17
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - PSERS Stress Test Impact Analysis | Page 1 PSERS Stress Test Impact Analysis Introduction Act 128 of 2020 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to summarize the results from the annual Public Hits: 17
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact the residents of the state. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also short sanctions of incarceration in response to technical parole violations. To the extent that the JRI-2 proposals impact the Department of Criminal Justice operations, this review notes those impacts under the relevant activity, and identifies performance measures that could be Hits: 17
NAP-2018-03.pdf This report provides an overview of each component of the NAP, explains how the program works and estimates the economic impact of state spending for this purpose. 2 PROGRAM OVERVIEW The Neighborhood Assistance Program utilizes tax credits to encourage private investment Neighborhood Conservation – A project or service that addresses the decline of a neighborhood or the needs of a vulnerable population. IMPACT ON FEDERAL INCOME TAXES The award of a NAP tax credit in conjunction with a contribution to a qualified nonprofit Hits: 17
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up income and personal non-withholding taxes because we believe that significant payment and income shifting has occurred, which will also impact the final payments received in March to May. At this point, we cannot be certain regarding the magnitude of any Hits: 17
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf The FY 2014 contribution rate would remain at 16.75% as a payment made on July 1, 2012, would not impact contribution rates until FY 2015. NOTE: Rates assume a 3% collar on FY 12, 3.5% on FY 13, and in March 1996, the Commission issued its second report, which can be accessed on-line via the following link: Fiscal Impact of theEarly Retirement Incentive for Public School Employees Provided by Act 186 of 1992 andAct 29 of 1994.C.Management Hits: 17
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf potential outcomes for the U.S. economy over the next two years due to highly unusual economic conditions and the impact of anticipated Fed policy actions. Most analysts believe that a “soft landing” will be very difficult for the Fed to assumes that by December, the federal funds rate will be 2.75 to 3.00 and will have a significant impact on interest rates paid by consumers and businesses. ▪ The Fed announced that it will begin to “taper” its holding of Hits: 16
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf potential outcomes for the U.S. economy over the next two years due to highly unusual economic conditions and the impact of anticipated Fed policy actions. Most analysts believe that a “soft landing” will be very difficult for the Fed to assumes that by December, the federal funds rate will be 2.75 to 3.00 and will have a significant impact on interest rates paid by consumers and businesses. ▪ The Fed announced that it will begin to “taper” its holding of Hits: 16
NGIFE-2016.pdf Independent Fiscal Office January 2017 1 Research Brief 2017-1 January 2017 2016 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This Hits: 16
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf 2.4 percent per annum). This group includes most of the Silent Generation in 2025. Broad demographic trends impact the revenue and expenditure projections included in this report. For example:  The forecast projects that the working-age population (age 20 in outflows from net domestic migration.  Although not shown explicitly in the table, declining college enrollment also impacts state demo- graphic trends. Pennsylvania typically receives a large influx of non-resident students who attend college. The temporary students are counted Hits: 16
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various Minimum Wage ...................................................................................................... 7 Comparison to Other States ............................................................................................................. 7 Recent Minimum Wage Studies ........................................................................................................ 9 Border County Comparison ............................................................................................................ 10 Economic and Revenue Impact ...................................................................................................... 12 - This page intentionally left blank. - Introduction | Page 1 Introduction This report provides revenue estimates for the tax and revenue Hits: 15
RB 2019 RACP.pdf In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief which examines the potential impact of House Bill 880. The bill lowers the statutory debt limit for Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program (RACP) projects by $100 projects by county.  A summary of debt limit changes to the program.  A discussion of the potential economic impact to local units.  An analysis of the potential fiscal impact from the proposed debt limit reduction.  A comparison Hits: 15
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf 74 are excluded, the average growth rate falls to -0.3 percent per annum. The growth rate differential reflects the impact from retiring baby boomers. The analysis uses regional real GSP growth to reflect the general expansion of the regional economy responsiveness to toll rate increases will be representative of future responsiveness. The analysis applies a constant parameter to quantify the impact of higher toll rates on future transactions. However, because the increase in toll rates outpaces inflation, it is likely that Hits: 15
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf housing market, sales tax revenues show strong growth Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now than 2019  Combined reporting vs rate reduction: what is the trade off? March 31, 2021 Millions of dollars. Growth rates adjusted to reverse the shift of revenues to FY 2020-21, as well as the impact of one-time transfers and an extra PIT withholding due date in FY 2020-21. New Round of Federal Stimulus Hits: 15
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf a request from the General Assembly, this research brief examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current analysis are only published at the county level. The analysis uses two distinct time frames based on the local unit impacted. They are as follows:  For municipalities and counties, the analysis makes projections for revenues received during calendar year (CY Hits: 14
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data and tax reform.  Federal tax cut: economic and General Fund impact.  Revenues: FY 17-18 update; preliminary look at FY 18-19. Public presentation later today.  Rachel Carson Building gains and dividends forecast (income tax).  Indirect effect: more consumer spending increases income. 29.Jan.2018 7 Federal Changes Impact PA General Fund Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 8 Impact of Tax Change for Singles Wage Income Number Children Hits: 14
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf funds.  For the same years, actual and budgeted revenues attributable to seniors by major category of taxation.  The impact on the net migration of seniors if school district property taxes were eliminated and (1) retirement income was taxed at a rate of 4.92 percent or (2) retirement income remains untaxed.  The potential impact on expected costs to the state if senior migration increased based on the scenario in the previous bullet. The remainder Hits: 13
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those consumers. The expected outcome is the timely and comprehensive review of all insurance products, forms and rate increase requests that impact Pennsylvania consumers. 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Actual 21-22 Actual 22-23 Budget Hits: 13
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf Summary............................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Demographic Outlook .......................................................................................................................... 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Impact of Recent Demographic Trends on the State Labor Force........................................................ 9 Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Consumer Inflation ........................................................................................................................ 14 Financial the state population, the second age cohort provides a better representation of the changes needed to facilitate normal jobs creation. Impact of Recent Demographic Trends on the State Labor Force Table 2.4 displays IFO estimates and projections of the state Hits: 13
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf 12 FY 2019-20 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 13 FY 2020-21 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 14 Growth of Top 3 Revenue Sources ....................................................................................................... 15 Impact of Federal Changes on Tobacco Taxes ................................................................................. 16 Lottery Sales and Net Revenues ............................................................................................................ 17 Gaming Expansion Revenues .................................................................................................................. 18 State and Local Contract Analysis (November 2019) SEIU Wage Contract Analysis (November 2019) 2019 Wage Contracts Summary Table (November 2019) Natural Gas 2018 Impact Fee Estimate (January 2019) Natural Gas Production Report, 2018 Q4 (March 2019) Natural Gas Production Report, 2019 Q1 (May 2019 Hits: 13
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2012 How Will the Proposed Extension of the Payroll Tax Cut Impact the PA Economy and Tax Revenues? Director’s Note: The following text discusses the possible economic impact from a policy under consideration by the U.S. Congress. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) does not support or oppose Hits: 12
SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -1.84 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Hits: 12
PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -0.60 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Compute the sum Hits: 12
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those 3). The metrics listed align with federal standards for state UC programs. In CY 2020, the key metrics were significantly impacted by the increase in claims received due to the pandemic. In June 2021, the department implemented a new, modernized UC Hits: 12
MRU-2020-3.pdf The outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, the corresponding business closures and other mitigation efforts had a significant impact on March 2020 revenue collections. Compared to the monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 to-date (FYTD) collections are $33.4 million (-0.1 percent) below estimate through March. After adjusting for the estimated impact of the virus, FYTD collections exceed the IFO estimate by roughly $165 million (0.7 percent). March corporate net income Hits: 12
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 21, 2019 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted after June 21, 2019. The adjustments for statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail 4.6 Total -229.6 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments 1 Note: Figures in dollar millions. Includes the impact of Acts 13, 15, 16, 20 and 65 of 2019. 1 Excludes any impact on refunds. FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Hits: 12
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf growth for 2018. For future years, growth rates will likely return to long-run trends because the main impact of the TCJA will have been phased-in, and although the level of economic output will be higher, the act will have a much smaller impact on economic growth rates after 2018. Many analysts have raised concerns regarding economic growth beyond 2018 due to the im- pact of Hits: 12
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf 2.1 0.4 5.2 P-EBT Benefits 0.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 2.7 Economic Impact Payments 11.2 22.1 0.8 0.0 34.1 Expanded Child Tax Credit -- 3.4 0.7 0 434 38.4 Fiscal Year to Date Revenues (Growth Rate Adjusted) Note: Millions of dollars. Growth rates adjusted for the impact of new and one-time transfers. Independent Fiscal Office 12 March 2023 Revenues – General Fund Projections Revenues – General Fund Projections Hits: 12
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover represented employees was set at $502 effective July 2020 and the biweekly contribution under this contract is also $502, this impact is not included in the analysis. November 11, 2020 Page 2 In order to estimate the incremental cost attributable solely Hits: 11
SR2017-05.pdf County All Households Homeowners Only Renters Only PIT Impact All 1 PIT Impact Owner 1 PIT Impact Renter 1 Adams $60,356 $68,444 $32,711 $1,135 $1,287 $615 Allegheny 53 Hits: 11
SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -2.20 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Hits: 11
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast projects that:  Real and the forecast projects a continuation of that trend. For 2018, the U.S. GDP data reflect the impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, but the impact is less noticeable for Pennsylvania. However, the tax Hits: 11
PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -2.45 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Hits: 11
OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -2.26 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Hits: 11
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast for calendar years 2019 and the forecast projects a continuation of that trend. For 2018, the U.S. GDP data reflect the impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, but the impact is less noticeable for Pennsylvania. However, the tax Hits: 11
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 | wage-price spiral taking hold? Natural gas trends ▪ National and regional prices remain high | impact fee is elevated ▪ Will international demand impact PA production? March 31, 2022 2 FYTD Revenues (Adjusted for Delayed Due Dates) March 31, 2022 3 Actual Revenues ($ millions Hits: 11
ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -3.42 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Hits: 11
CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -1.95 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated pay scale compression, general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the Hits: 11
ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -1.99 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Hits: 11
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf then $60 million of additional sales tax revenue would be generated by the first round of tax cut spending. This impact would occur relatively quickly. www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 The long-term impact on output or “gross state product” would be greater than the $5.0 billion increase in disposa- ble income because Hits: 11
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf Public Employee Retirement Commission was established by Act 66 of 1981 to conduct actuarial and policy analyses for proposed legislation impacting public employee retirement systems in Pennsylvania, to administer the actuarial reporting and funding requirements for the Commonwealth’s 2,900 or inequitably determined. The coverage is appropriately broad in the case of a cost-of-living postretirement adjustment because inflation impacts equally on the benefits of all retirees. Because public employee retirement systems provide a number of types of benefits with Hits: 11
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover benefits are included. Apply a -2.05% turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base. • Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increase and step increase to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates. • Compute Hits: 10
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf to school districts? 2. How do distributions compare to a “current law” property tax baseline for schools? 3. Potential economic impacts. 1. Business and non-business. 2. Homeowners and renters. 3. Home prices and rent payments. 4. Business competitiveness. 1.Oct tax cuts. For example, property tax cut increases sales tax collections.  It does not capture any macroeconomic “feedback” effects. Impact is unclear.  Such as change in employment levels. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of Hits: 10
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The federal government utilizes federal medical assistance percentages (FMAPs) to determine reimbursement rates to states for Medicaid Enhanced FMAP Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 This research brief projects the fiscal impact from the (1) phaseout of the enhanced FMAP rates and (2) elimination of the MA continuous coverage requirement. The fiscal Hits: 10
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf This research brief quantifies the current excess demand for labor, the magnitude of the state labor force contraction and the impact of near-term demographic trends on the state labor force through 2025. Labor Demand and Job Openings The primary metric 16+. Adjusted LFPRs exclude age 75+. See IFO Demographics Report for more detail (October 2022). Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Impact of Demographic Trends on the State Labor Force The two previous releases of this research brief examined various factors that Hits: 10
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf Government Subcommittee on Public Pensions, Benefits and Risk Management (August 2021). The subcommittee requested that the IFO examine the financial impact from Act 105 of 2019. This research brief uses data from the affected entities to assess the immediate and long- to the next fiscal year until the entire credit is used. 2 See: IFO - File Download (state.pa.us) . Financial Impact of Act 105 of 2019 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 To date, two Hits: 10
RB-2015-04.pdf 2) automatically adjusts future minimum wage levels to offset in Ðlation. This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of that proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor minimum wage ($10.10). Workers paid slightly more than the higher minimum wage could also be affected, and the potential impact on those employees is discussed in a later subsection. The two adjustments are as follows:  The analysis assumes that Hits: 10
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also provide agencies a of economic development and infrastructure programs, some of which are not included in the state accounting system, yet impact the financial resources of the state. In order to reflect the financial activities of these programs, this report includes additional tables for Hits: 10
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact the residents of the state. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also short sanctions of incarceration in response to technical parole violations. To the extent that the JRI-2 proposals impact the Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency (PCCD) operations, this review notes those impacts under the relevant activity, and identifies performance measures Hits: 10
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf growth for 2018. For future years, growth rates will likely return to long-run trends because the main impact of the TCJA will have been phased-in, and although the level of economic output will be higher, the act will have a much smaller impact on economic growth rates after 2018. Many ana- lysts have raised concerns regarding economic growth beyond 2018 due to the impact of Hits: 10
FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -1.99 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Hits: 10
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -2.70 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated general pay increase and step increase to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Hits: 9
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf tax)  Future years: potential deficits likely grow due to aging population, rising interest rates and modest revenue growth 1 Impact of Federal Tax Reform on Pennsylvania Anticipate large increase in PA disposable income for FY 2018-19  US personal corporate income tax base adds ~$160 million next year i. Eliminate Section 199 deduction, limit interest deduction ii. Any repatriation impact on tax base?  Rate cut raises Pennsylvania effective tax rate from 6.5% to 7.9% (see table) Sales Hits: 9
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those 3/4 facilities (the highest rated) increased from 30.9% to 41.1%. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on child care programs. The number of STARS 3/4 child care facilities declined from over 1,700 facilities in Hits: 9
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those See pages 19 to 23 for more details. Share of substantiated abuse/neglect RONs by type The COVID-19 pandemic impacted how older adults are cared for in numerous ways. Older adults are at much higher risk for complications related to Hits: 9
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also provide agencies a Pennsylvania community water systems ranked among the highest in the country for acute health-based violations and population impacted. In 2018, DEP increased permit fees and created a new annual fee for public water systems to increase staff and resources. Pennsylvania Hits: 9
MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf included. Apply a -1.47 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the AFSCME general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Compute the sum of the incremental impacts. This represents the net cost of the increases relative to the baseline scenario. (See footnotes in Table 1 for a Hits: 9
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf of assumptions that consider the probable behavioral responses of taxpayers, businesses and other persons and any potential dynamic or macroeconomic impacts in response to the proposed change.” As noted in a February 14, 2022 response letter to your office, the Independent proposals. If a request is received from an authorized requestor, then the model may be used for proposals that could impact General Fund revenues by $50 million or more in a single year. For the three bills cited in your letter Hits: 9
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf Gas Production and Spot Prices ........................................................................... 15 Natural Gas Spot Prices ............................................................................................................ 16 Natural Gas: U.S. and PA Consumption .............................................................................. 17 2018 Impact Fee Estimate ...................................................................................................... 18 Pension Systems Data ............................................................................................................... 20 Employer Contribution Rates for PSERS and SERS ...................................................... 21 Funded Ratios for PSERS and Credit Review (January 2019) • Wage Contracts ALES Wage Contract Analysis (February 2018) UGSOA Wage Contract Analysis (March 2018) • Natural Gas Impact Fee Update (January 2018, June 2018, January 2019) Natural Gas Production Report (March 2018, May 2018, August 2018, December 2018 Hits: 9
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf count. 1 From the base year, the IFO projects birth, death and net migration rates for Penn- sylvania residents. Incorporated impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic are detailed in the sub-sections of births, deaths and migration below. Births Births for forecast assumes trends prior to COVID-19 hold and 2023 births are calculated on historical trends instead of the years impacted by the pandemic. The projection for births for 2024 and beyond is based on the prior year birth rate. The Hits: 9
WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf Pennsylvania Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends Jesse Bushman – Revenue Analyst July 14, 2020 1 Center for Energy Policy & Management Washington & Jefferson College Impact Fee July 14, 2020 2 Per well fee paid by producers, varying by well age and type  Fee schedule Hits: 8
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf shortage? ▪ Is the uptick in inflation transitory? ▪ Is there a stock market and/or housing market bubble? Many unusual factors impact FY 2021-22 revenues ▪ Removal of federal monies | behavioral impacts | tax shifting May 26, 2021 1 Key Assumptions No new COVID restrictions moving forward ▪ No new variants that require widespread Hits: 8
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf 15.9 program has concluded Other Federal Assistance 10.2 PUA ($7.0b), LWA ($1.8b), PEUC ($0.9b) Economic Impact Payments 11.0 goes to 6.6 million PA recipients Total +42.3 Quarterly Income Gains and Losses October 29 15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 $24.3 $14.3 $3 Hits: 8
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in of actual General Fund revenues. All major revenue sources except CNIT fell short of the official estimate. Although the negative impact from federal income tax law changes (higher tax rates) was included in the official estimate, the impact on PIT was Hits: 8
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf which was effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in of actual General Fund revenues. All major revenue sources except CNIT fell short of the official estimate. Although the negative impact from federal income tax law changes (higher tax rates) was included in the official estimate, the impact on PIT was Hits: 8
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf primary goal of the PPP was to provide economic relief to small businesses and non- profits that had been adversely impacted by COVID-19 and related mitigation efforts. Due to those efforts, many firms suspended operations temporarily. The loans would be not exceed $10 million and were disbursed by private lenders from April through August 2020. This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and Hits: 8
PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover included. Apply a -2.60 percent turnover factor each year to reflect the declining wage base.  Compute the incremental impacts by applying the negotiated step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates.  Compute the sum of Hits: 8
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those 2020-21. Due to the pandemic, historic sites and museums were closed from March 2020 through March 2021, consider- ably impacting visitation. There can be a significant delay in reporting complete visitation and revenue information for all sites. The IFO recommends Hits: 8
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those Plan Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief funds in support of education recovery that requires local education agencies to measure impacts and report outcomes disaggregated by student group at the school and district level. See pages 9 to 16 for more Hits: 8
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those from FY 2016-17 and a decline of 270 inspections (-40%) from FY 2018- 19. Retail food inspections were significantly impacted by COVID-19, as all field operations were paused for two weeks in March 2020 and the bureau responded to Hits: 8
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency un- der review functions. Recent economic forecasts project that the reduction in gasoline consumption will likely continue for several years and would therefore impact short- and long-term agency planning and operations. The Rapid Bridge Replacement (RBR) program was a major public, private partnership Hits: 8
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf for State & Local Government Excellence published an article detailing public pension market returns for fiscal year (FY) 2020 and potential impacts going forward. Listed as one of the 20 “worst-off” plans, Philadelphia is projected to end FY 2020 49.7% only 5.2 years of benefit payments on hand. Nationally, public market fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic have heavily impacted pension returns. Analysis from Milliman in April showed that during 2020 Q1 the top 100 public pension plans in the Hits: 8
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf Pennsylvania. Displays monthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report. Provides Hits: 8
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf Pennsylvania. Displays monthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report. Provides Hits: 8
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year General Fund revenues. All major revenue sources except CNIT fell short of the official estimate. Although the negative impact from federal income tax law changes (higher tax rates) was included in the official estimate, the impact on PIT was larger than Hits: 7
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year General Fund revenues. All major revenue sources except CNIT fell short of the official estimate. Although the negative impact from federal income tax law changes (higher tax rates) was included in the official estimate, the impact on PIT was larger than Hits: 7
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf Arkansas, District of Columbia, Maryland and Utah) have approved plans. The table below provides an overview of the potential fiscal impacts associated with the first three years of implementation of Family First. These impacts are discussed in more detail in the sections that follow. Federal Funding Source SFY 2017-18 Amount Title IV-E Hits: 7
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf had constant variance over time. This year the model output for most revenue sources was adjusted for the impact of mitigation efforts related to COVID-19 and delayed payment due dates in response to the virus. These adjustments were generally informed income (11 percent) and transfer income (16 percent). Transfer income is unusually high for 2020 due to economic impact payments and extra federal and state unemployment compensation related to the COVID- 19 pandemic. In normal years, that income source would comprise Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf by Pennsylvania homeowners. Business Travel Could Permanently Decline 19% to 36% A recent WSJ article discusses the potential long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business travel. The pandemic caused a steep drop in business travel as business trainings includes travel to secure sales and clients (25%) and conventions and trade shows (20%). Reduced business travel will also likely impact leisure travel through increased fares and fewer flights, as business travel represents a large revenue source for airlines. PA Renters Hits: 7
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 31-32 General Fund Impact Deposit MV SUT into MLF 1 -$1,368 -$1,392 -$1,415 -$1,440 -$1,463 -$1,487 -$1,509 MLF Portion of PSP Budget to General Fund 2 -500 -500 -500 -500 -500 -500 -500 -500 -500 -500 Total Impact on Fund Balance -$1,868 -$1,892 -$1,915 -$1,940 -$1,963 -$1,987 -$2,009 -$2,032 -$2 Hits: 7
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf the requestor has had three days to review the response and ask questions. The office also (1) estimates the budgetary impact of collective bargaining agreements, (2) coordinates and provides actuarial analysis for proposed changes to the pension systems and (3) analyzes Pennsylvania. Displays monthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage Hits: 7
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf use declined from 7.9% to 7.4%. Marijuana use can cause short- or long-term health issues, which can impact health care costs. For example, smoking marijuana can harm lung tissues and users can develop problems with attention, memory and increase in fatal crashes after the opening of commercial dispensaries in Colorado and Washington. 3 Other Costs that Offset Revenue Impact In addition to the negative externalities and societal costs listed above, the legalization of marijuana may also increase costs in Hits: 7
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf change | potential workforce still contracts ▪ COVID: ~30,000 excess deaths in 2020 + 2021 | small baby bust 2021 ▪ No longer-term impacts Economics jobs and inflation ▪ Will workers return? | impact of general price and asset inflation ▪ Does a wage-price spiral emerge? Revenues permanent real and inflation gains from COVID Hits: 7
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth 12,802 12,768 12,668 17 -34 -101 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Note: Forecasts do not include impact from COVID-19. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. More Residents Working Offsets Demographics February 19, 2021 5 Hits: 7
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf Population Estimates. 1 From the base year, the IFO projects birth, death and net migration rates for Pennsylvania residents. The impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic are detailed in the births, deaths and migration sub-sections that follow. Births For 2021 projections for births for 2023 and beyond are based on historical birth rates by age group and disregard the years impacted by COVID- 19. The projections apply average birth rates to seven groups of females: age 13 to 18, age 19 Hits: 7
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf years needed to return to pre-pandemic level Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now than 2019  Combined reporting vs rate reduction: what is the trade off? March 11, 2021 8% highest since 2005 Sales Tax Revenues +5.4% online sales tax doubles Credit Card Debt -11.6% 70% of impact payments saved or pay down debt S&P 500 Index +12.4% New Round of Federal Stimulus March 11, 2021 Hits: 7
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf 0.1% 2.8% 2.4% 3.7% 5.3% 5.6% 5.4% 5.5% Snapshot: Pennsylvania Unconventional Well Impact Fee Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania From 2010 to 2011, production of natural gas in Penn- sylvania more than increased from 3,538 to 20,943, an increase of nearly 500 percent. 4 The new drilling activity also generates impact fee reve- nues for Pennsylvania municipalities, counties, conser- vation districts and certain state agencies. The impact fee was enacted by Hits: 7
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf the 2008-09 Great Recession were available, the analysis did not use those data in order to exclude the significant impact from that downturn, and to limit the focus on the record-setting expansion that has occurred since that time. Table Pennsylvania housing and auto loan defaults. Please refer to Tables 3A and 3B. Senator Vogel asked for information on the impact of the $10 million Pennsylvania Dairy Investment Program (PDIP). To date, there have been two rounds of PDIP grants issued Hits: 6
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019- 20 current-year property tax collections, (2) the impact from FY 2021-22 millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion prior year. In February, the IFO estimated that FY 2020-21 collections would fall by 1.3% due to anticipated impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, but this estimate assumes no decline in current-year collections. 2 This revision is due Hits: 6
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than- expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year General Fund revenues. All major revenue sources except CNIT fell short of the official estimate. Although the negative impact from federal income tax law changes (higher tax rates) was included in the official estimate, the impact on PIT was larger than Hits: 6
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf effective for tax year 2011. The underprediction error for PIT was attributable to the larger-than-expected revenue impact from changes in federal tax laws, which motivated high-income taxpayers to declare certain income (e.g., capital gains) in tax year General Fund revenues. All major revenue sources except CNIT fell short of the official estimate. Although the negative impact from federal income tax law changes (higher tax rates) was included in the official estimate, the impact on PIT was larger than Hits: 6
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf to December growth = 2.1%.  Will it continue? o Higher federal taxes reduce disposable income in 2013. o Psychological impact: fiscal cliff and debt ceiling. o Any residual pent‐up demand? 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 5 Consumer Sentiment on certain “investment income” if AGI > $250,000. 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 8 Federal Tax Changes for 2013 Impact on Pennsylvania Disposable Income for CY 2013 Payroll Tax Cut Expiration ‐$5.00 billion 39.6 % Income Tax Rate and Hits: 6
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf 12,000 or less. 1 This research brief presents estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model on the federal budget impact of the changes, the impact across household income quintiles and uses those findings to estimate the potential impact on Pennsylvania borrowers. The most recent data Hits: 6
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts (e.g., SNAP) and retirement income. Income patterns were dramatically impacted by COVID-19 pandemic relief programs. For 2020, the BEA estimates that around $53 billion was distributed to counties through various programs including unemployment compensation (UC) ($30 billion, includes regular state amounts above “normal” payments), economic impact payments (EIPs, $11 billion) and lost wage assistance ($2 billion), Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans to certain businesses ($5 billion Hits: 6
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results from those projections that estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. It is noted that these results are subject to Council. All other categories from the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Calculations and estimates for 2021 by the IFO. COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The removal of these five Hits: 6
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the The Impact of Demographics on General Fund Revenues and Expenditures 2016 Pennsylvania Data User Conference May 12, 2016 Office Began Operations September For 2014 typical migrant is ~31 years old typical PA resident is ~41 years old 11 12.May.2016 Economic Impacts 12 12.May.2016 Labor Force May Contract Aging of Workforce Labor Participation Rates Must Increase Composition of Income Changes Hits: 6
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf 3) business savings (e.g., reduced turnover). Critical Factor: what would have happened if no change?  Most of the impact is subtle: a slower pace of hiring vs. layoffs. May 1, 2019 5 Both Sides Raise Valid Points Raised by full- and part-time. Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: "Analysis of Revenue Proposals," IFO (March 2019). Projected Employment Impact (2018) May 1, 2019 9 Lower Upper % Change Avg Wage # Jobs Affected Change # Jobs % Change Avg Wage # Jobs Affected Change Hits: 6
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax revenues very strong CPI-U +2.1%.  No recession or economic slow down. A “best case” scenario. March 1, 2019 5 Potential Impact of Recession on Revenues March 1, 2019 6 $32.0 $34.0 $36.0 $38.0 $40.0 17-18 Hits: 6
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf 2.52 $2.99 $2.92 Regional PA Hub (mcf) $3.14 $1.43 $1.55 $2.20 $2.36 Impact Fee (millions) $224 $188 $173 $218 n.a. Note: Production and new wells spud for horizontal wells only. Regional PA hub price is weighted average for the Dominion South and Leidy hubs. Impact Fee for 2017 is an IFO estimate. Sources: IFO tabulations of data submitted to the PA Department of Environmental Protection Hits: 6
PICPA_Presentation.pdf 18 Executive Budget presentation, Feb. 7, 2017. Excludes all policy initiatives. Proposed Deficit Reduction June 7, 2017 17 2-Year Impact Revenue Package $1,006 Revenue Enhancements 304 Loans or Leasebacks 335 Gaming Expansion 250 Reduce Tax Credits 100 Consolidation/Closures 3,043 Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. Source: FY 2017-18 Executive Budget and Feb. 7, 2017 budget presentation. Impact of Revenue Proposals June 7, 2017 18 Fiscal Years 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Corporate Hits: 6
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those returns filed electronically include PIT, corporation tax, sales and use tax and employer withholding.  Many outcome metrics were temporarily impacted by the implementation of the new PATH system and COVID-19, especially in FY 2020-21. 17-18 18-19 Hits: 6
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx export based ▪ Positive synergies, spillovers, clustering and agglomeration effects January 23, 2020 2 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis has 3 steps ▪ Determine the amount/share of spending incentivized ▪ Determine type of spending and industries affected ▪ Use IMPLAN incremental base computation January 23, 2020 7 Research and Development Tax Credit R&D T ax C redit has many impacts ▪ Consensus : $ 1 tax credit increases private R&D spend by $1.00-$1.50 ▪ State RDTC: large firms shift R Hits: 6
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf estimate by adjusting to the current cigarette tax rate. The estimate is then reduced to account for the impact of the annual Philadelphia cigarette tax transfer and the transfers to CHIP and to ACEP. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 rate that takes into account recent trends in revenue collections. Beginning in FY 2016-17, collections include the impact of liquor modernization (Acts 39 and 85 of 2016). 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Revenue $311 $321 $334 $348 Hits: 6
MTR-2017-05.pdf shown by the table, some adjacent states have also experienced modest (or negative) growth of sales tax revenues. Four factors impact spending trends and could motivate that result. First, PA consumers could be paying down debt. However, recent data from the take home pay, growing roughly 3.5% for the first three quarters of FY 2016-17. Third, consumers could be impacted by “wealth effects” if the stock market is performing poorly or home values are stagnant. However, the S&P 500 Hits: 6
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf published by the Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 22, 2020, which includes adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the state budget. The statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail Fees -1.1 Total -130.2 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments Note: Figures in dollar millions. Reflects the impact of Act 23-2020. FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 2 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf 2%) and wholesale trade (-1.9%) had the largest declines. However, the March employment data do not reflect the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data collection date (the week of March 12 to combat the outbreak. April employment figures (released May 22) will provide a more complete snapshot of the pandemic’s impact on state employment. Pennsylvania Initial UC Claims Remain High, Multiple Sectors Heavily Impacted For the week ending April 11, the Hits: 6
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf my brief remarks, I will provide comments on the most recent assumptions used by the consultant to model the potential impact on Pennsylvania from joining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative or RGGI. I will limit my comments to model assumptions, as RGGI model had assumed that one-quarter was exported. • If passed forward to consumers, the much higher auction price could impact demand and generation compared to what was assumed by the latest model. • A May 2021 presentation by DEP computed higher Hits: 6
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf combined reporting, the use of the filing method by other states and the IFO’s perspective on the potential revenue impact. Background Under mandatory combined reporting, multi-state firms that form a unitary group are required to file a combined return on the ownership of the group, as well as the relationships between the entities within the group. Estimating the revenue impact from combined reporting is subject to uncertainty, largely because taxing authorities lack full information regarding the characteristics of potential unitary Hits: 6
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf 1 Inflation’s Impact on the Pennsylvania Economy, Budget and Pensions House Majority Policy Committee Hearing on Inflation June 8, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director Any inflationary increase in FY 2022-23 and later will likely become a permanent part of future budgets and the impact will compound. The columns below depict the impact in FY 2022-23 if (1) growth rates are 1 percentage point Hits: 6
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage March 4, 2022 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth Oct Jan-20 Apr Jul Oct Jan-21 Apr Jul Oct 3rd EIP 1st EIP 2nd EIP EIP is economic impact payment Federal and State Pandemic Relief Programs March 4, 2022 14 CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 Total Payments to Hits: 6
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf rate by age are calculated and applied to population projections to determine net migration for each future year. Impact of COVID-19 The global COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths in Pennsylvania. From March 1, 2020 to health-related issues in the upcoming years. Additionally, it is unclear if any long- term complications or health impacts exist in those that have contracted the virus and recovered. Further- more, behaviors such as increased hygiene and social distancing since March Hits: 6
WC-2019-UFCW.pdf Benefits 2.6 5.3 8.2 10.7 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.6 1.3 2.0 Total Impact (All Funds) 2.6 5.9 9.5 12.7 $30.7 Table 1 4/ Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the relevant fiscal year, plus the impact of the July 2019 GPI, multiplied by the 2.25 percent step increase. The total is prorated for the April Hits: 5
WC-2019-SEIU.pdf Benefits 25.6 52.4 81.3 106.8 Increase: Health Care Costs 3.9 8.0 12.2 Total Impact (All Funds) 25.6 56.3 89.3 119.0 $290.1 Table 1 4/ Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the relevant fiscal year, plus the impact of the July 2019 GPI, multiplied by the 2.25 percent step increase. The total is prorated for the April Hits: 5
WC-2019-AFSCME.pdf Benefits 71.3 146.8 228.9 302.3 Increase: Health Care Costs 12.6 26.0 39.4 Total Impact (All Funds) 71.3 159.4 254.9 341.7 $827.3 Table 1 4/ Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the relevant fiscal year, plus the impact of the July 2019 GPI, multiplied by the 2.25 percent step increase. The total is prorated for the April Hits: 5
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf to assess reliably ▪ All Others – Minimal data, not yet possible to assess reliably Credits do not include a formal economic impact analysis ▪ Most credits not enacted until 2016 and impacted by COVID ▪ Programs still in early stages of implementation, minimal data available ▪ Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit enacted in 2012, but Hits: 5
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf websites. State Comparison | Page 10 Literature Review As part of its analysis, the IFO reviewed studies and reports on the impact of programs similar to the Pennsylvania MTC. The text that follows provides a summary of the literature reviewed. These reports parameters, most studies reviewed for the [IFO’s JCTC] report find that state JCTC programs do not have a significant impact on the creation of jobs. Findings regarding the number of new jobs created that would not have occurred in the Hits: 5
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf and industry data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Section 4 discusses factors that affect the economic impact of the tax credit. Section 5 concludes with the tax credit plan, as required by Act 48. If submitted, written Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Although data for 2020 are available, they are not used due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. For that year, total U.S. employment was 79,500 and wages paid were $3 Hits: 5
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf offer an organ and bone marrow donation tax incentive program. Section 4 contains a discussion of the financial impact of living donation on donors and the extent to which the credit mitigates that impact. Section 5 concludes with the tax credit plan, as required by Act 48. A complete list of reports, studies and data sources Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf CBO released May 19. Large Injection of Federal Monies May 26, 2020 5 Estimate Estimate Individual Provisions Federal Grants Economic Impact Payments $10.8 State Governments $5.8 State UC Payments 6.2 Local Governments 2.4 Federal UC Payments 13 2020 lost wages ~$25 billion | ~$1 to $2 billion in tip income  Federal and state UC = $20.2 billion | impact payments = $10.8 billion COVID-19 not directly comparable to Great Recession  No obvious bubble, although stock market appears Hits: 5
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf rebates ($22.0 million).  The expansion of the supplemental rebate for homeowners currently eligible for a base rebate would impact 193,013 homeowners through new or higher supplemental rebates ($146.6 million).  The expansion of the supplemental rebate for that would be newly eligible for the base rebate as a result of this expansion. 2 Table 2 displays the impact from the higher income threshold. If all newly eligible homeowners received a $175 rebate, then there would be 152,500 Hits: 5
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf Many recent articles have noted the negative impact that high rates of inflation are having on the real earnings of U.S. workers. 1 The latest monthly earnings tends to employ lower-wage workers, real average hourly earnings increased 2.1% for August. That outcome likely reflects the impact of the current labor shortage which caused wages to be bid up. Real average hourly earnings in the construction sector Hits: 5
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf 15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 $24.3 $14.3 $3.6 billions of Hits: 5
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf Education (PDE) | Dept. of Agriculture (AGR) How Can Reports Be Used ▪ Link funding levels to outcome metrics – Did additional funding impact outcomes? ▪ Provide additional metrics and indicators to inform budget decisions ▪ How does PA compare to other states and U.S within PA differ from the statewide measure? January 24, 2022 1 Common Issues Across Reports PBB reports reflect the significant impact of COVID-19 ▪ Agency caseloads, staffing, operations & related performance measures ▪ Long-term shifts – more telework, more reliance on digital resources Hits: 5
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those PSP: Activities and Primary Services Provided Pennsylvania State Police Overview | Page 4 Gaming Enforcement expenditures for FY 2019-20 were impacted by a revenue shortfall caused by casino closures related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The shortfall resulted in new General Hits: 5
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf 15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 $24.3 $14.3 $3.6 billions of Hits: 5
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf 11%), retirement income (10%) and transfer income (11%). Transfer income is unusually high for 2020 and 2021 due to economic impact payments and extra federal and state unemployment compensation related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecast projects that Cash Income are projected (1) as a share of the quarterly change in total cash income and (2) adjusted to reflect economic impacts not reflected in income (e.g., expiration of the student loan moratorium, higher inflation, etc.). Model projections are gross of Hits: 5
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf CBO released May 19. Large Injection of Federal Monies June 22, 2020 5 Estimate Estimate Individual Provisions Federal Grants Economic Impact Payments $10.8 State Governments $5.9 State UC Payments 6.0 Local Governments 2.4 Federal UC Payments 14 2020 lost wages ~$26 billion | ~$1 to $2 billion in tip income  Federal and state UC = $20.7 billion | impact payments = $10.8 billion COVID-19 not directly comparable to Great Recession  No obvious bubble, although stock market appears Hits: 5
Newsstand_2018_December.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Impact Fee to Use Higher Fee Schedule for CY 2018 Final futures data for CY 2018 reveal that the average price the average price finished at $3.09. An average NYMEX price that exceeds $3.00 implies that the per well impact fee schedule will be higher than if the price was below that threshold. In June 2018, the IFO estimated impact Hits: 5
MTR-2017-12.pdf for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 The new release includes the incremental impact on General Fund revenues of (1) Acts 42, 43, 44 and 55 of 2017 and (2) a recent Supreme Court CNIT (-$42 million, -3.3%) and escheats (-$29 million, -133.2%) remittances. Recently enacted federal tax legislation had a material impact on December revenues. For CNIT, it is likely that estimated payments reflect a shifting of income out of tax year Hits: 5
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf Official Revenue Estimate published by the Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 23, 2022 adjusted to reflect (1) the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget and (2) the extension of the moratorium on federal student Income - Annual -53.6 Total -147.3 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments Note: Figures in dollar millions. Reflects (1) the impact of Acts 53, 54 and 55 of 2022 and (2) the extension of the moratorium on federal student loan repayments Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf 12,802 12,768 12,668 17 -34 -101 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% Note: Forecasts do not include impact from COVID-19. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. More Residents Working Offsets Demographics January 21, 2021 3 15 Sales Tax: Consumers Receive Much Support Many factors bolster taxable spending  2020: federal UC $26.5b | $11.0b impact payments  2021: federal UC $5.7b | $6.3b impact payments  State UC: $5.2b (2020, pandemic only) | $1 Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf A Surge in Retirements During the Next Decade.  Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for 65+.  Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? New Data Suggest Int’l Migration Much Higher.  Domestic migration changes from growth in service populations.  Adjustments for expenditures not reflected in the base year. Special fund forecasts and General Fund impact. Revenues: current law with IFO economic and demographic assumptions.  Base revenue growth adjusted for policy changes. 11/15/2016 Hits: 5
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf person from whom sensitive investment or financial information relating to the investment was received; or (iii) have a substantial detrimental impact on the value of an investment to be acquired, held or disposed of by the fund or trust, or would public [inspection] access under the Right-to-Know Law once: (A) the [inspection] access no longer has a substantial detrimental impact on the value of an investment of the fund or trust and would not cause a breach of the standard Hits: 5
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Oct Jan-20 Apr Jul Oct Jan-21 Apr Jul Oct 3rd EIP 1st EIP 2nd EIP EIP is economic impact payment Checking Account Balances Still Very High January 31, 2022 13 U.S. Checkable Deposits Q3 ($ billions) 2021 Q3 Excess Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Amount $640 million Share That Defer 80% Monthly Payment Deferred $510 million Monthly Sales Tax Impact ~$10 million Moratorium extended to May 1, 2022 SNAP Benefits Max benefit, family of 4 = $835 /month FFY 2019 1 Hits: 5
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf Development Tax Credits State Comparison | Page 12 Literature Review As part of its analysis, the IFO reviewed reports on the impact of mixed-use development and found limited research available. The text that follows provides a summary of two mixed-use to a competitive grant program would allow more funds to flow directly to mixed-use development projects and maximize the impact of state monies. For example, for FY 2020-21, an additional $410,000 of funds (14%) could have been made Hits: 4
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf tax cut. Therefore, the data from Table 1 represent the upper limit on the number of taxpayers that could be impacted by the provisions noted above. The data show that: • Over 6.2 million Pennsylvania residents filed a federal return and organizations have access to samples of federal income tax returns and have performed simulations that provide insights into the potential impact of the TCJA on the federal income tax remitted by Pennsylvania residents. For example, the U.S. Joint Committee on Hits: 4
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis.  FPTC: large ($65 million) and good data are available.  JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less clear Roughly three quarters awarded by Gov. Action Team.  May be part of a larger package. Hard to know marginal impact.  GAT awards are 3 year commitments. Nearly all research finds small impact from jobs tax credit.  Most firms Hits: 4
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx studies over past decade. ▪ Government, academic and industry. ▪ Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis. ▪ FPTC : large ($65 million) and good data are available. ▪ JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less clear. ▪ HPTC: too states. Roughly three quarters awarded by Gov. Action Team. ▪ May be part of a larger package. Hard to know marginal impact . ▪ GAT awards are 3 year commitments. Nearly all research finds small impact from jobs tax credit. ▪ Most firms would create Hits: 4
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis.  FPTC: large ($65 million) and good data are available.  JCTC: ($10 million) simplified analysis, data less clear Roughly three quarters awarded by Gov. Action Team.  May be part of a larger package. Hard to know marginal impact.  GAT awards are 3 year commitments. Nearly all research finds small impact from jobs tax credit.  Most firms Hits: 4
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf large infusions of federal stimulus funds such as various federal unemployment compensation programs (e.g., Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)), economic impact payments and expanded SNAP benefits. Most of those programs are reflected in state personal income data. Most states also enacted net of refunds. 7 The U.S. unweighted metric is an unweighted average so that all states have an equal impact on the U.S. average computation regardless of size. The weighted average allows large states (e.g., California) to have Hits: 4
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf of refunds. 6 The U.S. average is an unweighted average so that all states have an equal impact on the U.S. average computation. The weighted average allows large states (e.g., California) to have a greater impact compared to small states (e.g., Rhode Island). Tax Comparison Study Page 4 Table 2 ranks states based on the ratio of Hits: 4
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf Scope and Assumptions For the purpose of computing real estate tax rates, the analysis excludes: Building-level administrative costs. The impact of changes in federal funds. Costs related to the York County School of Technology. Costs related to the Lincoln Intermediate 17.7 million). Countywide avg. = $167 (varies by district). Consolidated district amount = $159 (all). $8 difference, but different district impacts. • York City goes from $490 to $159 (-$331). • Central York increases from $108 to $159 (+$51). 16.Dec.2014 10 Hits: 4
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf to the COVID-19 pandemic by gender and the permanency of job loss. The COVID-19 pandemic had a disparate impact on men and women in the workforce. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes national jobs data by women age 16 or older, a 2.0 percentage point reduction in the labor force participation rate has a larger impact on unemployment rates for women over this time. The non-seasonally adjusted data suggest that roughly 542,000 more women Hits: 4
RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf brief updates a prior release (September 2021) by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. These updated estimates are based on recent data releases Council. All other categories from the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Calculations and estimates for 2021 by the IFO. COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The difference between actual (2020 Hits: 4
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf codes that generally became effective for tax year 2018. Recently, the IRS released state level tax data that reveal the impact that tax law changes had on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. This research brief provides a general analysis of those impacts and how tax law changes affected federal income tax paid for tax year 2018 compared to amounts paid in the Hits: 4
RB-2017-5.pdf 2010-11 to FY 2015-16 are used because those data represent the latest years available that also exclude the impact of a recession. The analysis examines the tax rates and trends for the three largest state revenue sources: (1) personal inflationary gains, the economic metrics used for the purpose of the analysis (gross domestic product and personal income) include the impact of inflation as well. Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 set of industries or age groups. Second, the results will likely Hits: 4
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf PBC Policy Roundtable June 12, 2014 Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office How Demographics Impact the Pennsylvania Economy Demographic Outlook o General Trends: past decade and next two. o Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others federal tax return. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security o Social Security income meant to be “supplemental.” o What impact from phase-out of Defined Benefit plans? o Are savings and investments sufficient? Income less Dependent on Economic Growth 12 Hits: 4
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf  Office does not make policy recommendations. Primary duties:  Revenue projections: May 1 and June 15.  Analyze fiscal impact of state employee wage contracts.  Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget Post-Recession Budgets The 2008-2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets.  Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years.  Spending reductions / restraint for many program areas. Since the recession, budgets have utilized short- term measures Hits: 4
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf 2016 3  The widespread 2008‐2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets. • Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years. • Spending reductions/restraint for many program areas. • Recession hit pension funds, contributing to funding issues.  Recent capital stock and franchise tax. • Technical considerations affect timing of revenues. Highlights of January Report 8.Jun.2016 7  Impact of changes on FY 2016‐17 is unclear. • Sustainability of reductions to Medical Assistance. • Commitment of additional resources from PHEAA Hits: 4
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figures for 2018 based on preliminary data through December. Factors That Could Impact Growth Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal shut down (?)  Federal tax cut / refunds  Consumer sentiment  Stock 0%) | Dec (+25.7%).  U.S. Domestic Profits stronger: +6.3% forecast, +9.3% thru Q3.  Base broadening impact: +$125 million (permanent). Regular or final payments also very strong.  Up +33% for July to January.  Settlement payments Hits: 4
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf 2.52 $2.99 $2.92 Regional PA Hub (mcf) $3.14 $1.43 $1.55 $2.20 $2.36 Impact Fee (millions) $224 $188 $173 $218 n.a. Note: Production and new wells spud for horizontal wells only. Regional PA hub price is weighted average for the Dominion South and Leidy hubs. Impact Fee for 2017 is an IFO estimate. Sources: IFO tabulations of data submitted to the PA Department of Environmental Protection Hits: 4
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those by general obligation bonds and awarded to local entities for capital projects that have economic, cultural, recreational or historical preservation impact. The resource table below includes federal stimulus funds appropriated to the Executive Offices for pandemic response. This includes $50 million Hits: 4
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those prevent and reduce drug, alcohol and gambling addiction and abuse; and to promote recovery, thereby reducing the human and economic impact of the disease. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by DDAP are classified into five general activities. Department Hits: 4
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those gums. Early detection of tooth de- cay and/or gum disease can pre- vent severe pain and infection that negatively impact quality of life, children’s growth, school attend- ance and performance. MA – Physical Health Services | Page 13 Share of Children Hits: 4
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf 10.4 LWA and UC Extensions 3.1 2.9 6.0 SNAP 0.9 1.4 2.4 Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) 11.1 21.4 32.5 Expanded Child Tax Credit 0.0 3.5 3.5 Total Individual a no-pandemic scenario for 2020 and normal seasonal hiring. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Impact of Business Closures vs. One Year Later June 17, 2021 6 YOY Change (000s) YOY Growth Apr 20 Oct 20 Hits: 4
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf reflects July only. Federal stimulus includes PPP loans, expanded SNAP, advance child tax credit payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates or changes are year-over-year except Real GDP. Wage growth rates for 2021.2 and 2021 1,100 “normal” year 2021 Q2 UC $5.3b CTC $0 COVID millions of dollars $950m Note: EIP is economic impact payment. UC is extra federal Unemployment Compensation. CTC is advance child tax credit payments. Data shifts $160 million of delayed Hits: 4
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf 8%), retirement income (10%) and transfer income (17%). Transfer income is unusually high for 2020 and 2021 due to economic impact payments and extra federal and state unemployment compensation related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In normal years, that income source a cash estimate by adjusting to the current cigarette tax rate. The estimate is then reduced to account for the impact of the applicable annual transfers. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Revenue $927 $912 $1,262 $1,198 Hits: 4
MTR-2017-11.pdf payments have been remitted. In December, the IFO will release updated monthly projections for FY 2017-18 that reflect the impact of recently enacted legislation. 2 The legislation was enacted as part of the FY 2017-18 state budget. General Fund www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18.pdf. 2 The release will include the incremental impact on General Fund revenues of (1) Acts 42, 43, 44 and 55 of 2017 and (2) a recent Supreme Court Hits: 4
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf published by the In- dependent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 22, 2021 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. The statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail regarding the 841.0 Total 3,746.9 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments Note: Figures in dollar millions. Reflects the impact of Acts 24, 25 and 26 of 2021. Excludes the $115.3 million transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund, as that transfer Hits: 4
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf and Budget Outlook published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on January 21, 2021, which includes adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in November 2020. The statutory 0 Other Misc. 531.2 Total 331.2 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments Note: Figures in dollar millions. Reflects the impact of Act 114 of 2020. FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 2 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan Hits: 4
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 18, 2018 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted after June 18, 2018. The adjustments for statutory changes are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail Treasury 30.4 Total -13.5 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments Note: figures in dollar millions. Includes the impact of Acts 39 and 42 of 2018. FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 2 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf or a 4% to 16% reduction in total municipal revenues in FY 2019-20 across a low, medium, and high impact scenario. The medium impact scenario projects that between FY 2019-20 and FY 2020 -21 an estimated 150 municipalities will face cash insolvency and Hits: 4
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf Conference Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016. • Forecasts: June 2014 vs. January 2015. • Drop in gas prices: SUT and other impacts. • Real wage growth: boost to consumer confidence? FY 2014‐15 General Fund Revenues. • Performance through January. • Revisions to FY 2014‐ revenues include inflation. • Inflation is transmitted to tax revenues through (1) higher prices (SUT) and (2) higher wages (PIT). • Expenditure impact unclear (e.g., contracts and healthcare). • Inflation is a “wash” over long‐term, but not short‐term. 28.Jan.2015 Hits: 4
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf 10.2% 3 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 Changes in federal taxes taking effect in 2013 will have an impact on the Pennsylvania economy. The Independent Fiscal Office estimates that the following provisions will reduce the disposable income of Pennsylvania residents by about $7.7 billion. Using reasonable assumptions, a reduction of that magnitude could have an $85 million annual impact on sales and use tax collections once it is fully phased in. American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (Jan. 2 Hits: 4
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf residents. However, if a large por- tion of the population retires around the same time, PIT collections could be negatively impacted. As of July 1, 2011, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that Pennsylvania had the fourth largest share of pop- share of overall individual in- come will consist of retirement income. While this issue is not unique to Pennsylvania, the impact on revenue collections may be greater in Pennsylvania because (1) Pennsylvania does not tax most retire- ment income and (2 Hits: 4
Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover 2.7 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $4.8 million. The Total column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts that will be initially incurred by a state fund Hits: 3
Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover 4 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $134.9 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts that will be initially incurred by a state fund Hits: 3
Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover 1 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $0.3 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts that will be initially incurred by a state fund Hits: 3
Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover 5 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $390.3 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreement. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts that will be initially incurred by a state fund Hits: 3
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf burning incentivized, depends on price ▪ Educational – Minimal data, not possible to reliably assess Credits do not include a formal economic impact analysis ▪ Economic activity and jobs creation not primary goal (Educational, Coal Refuse, Mixed-Use) ▪ Little economic activity incentivized (Brewers’) January payments: few to several million per generator (depends on auction price) ▪ Host Bitcoin miners (Scrubgrass and Panther Creek) | new dynamic, impact unclear January 24, 2022 6 #3 Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Economic and environmental impacts ▪ Report assumes that ~20% of Hits: 3
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf are net of refunds. 6 The U.S. average is an unweighted average so that all states have an equal impact on the U.S. average computation. The weighted average allows large states (e.g., California) to have a greater impact compared to small states (e.g., Rhode Island). State Rank Amount Ratio State Rank Amount Ratio New York 1 $68 Hits: 3
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf of refunds. 6 The U.S. average is an unweighted average so that all states have an equal impact on the U.S. average computation. The weighted average allows large states (e.g., California) to have a greater impact compared to small states (e.g., Rhode Island). Tax Comparison Study Page 4 Table 2 ranks states based on the ratio of Hits: 3
SR2017-03.pdf are net of refunds. 4 The U.S. average is an unweighted average so that all states have an equal impact on the U.S. average computation. The weighted average allows large states (e.g., California) to have a greater impact compared to small states (e.g., Rhode Island). Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Table 2 ranks Hits: 3
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf economic modeling, data science and cloud computing to provide policymakers and support staff with a transparent platform that projects the impact on the budget and economy while writing legislation. 2) Regular convening with members, federal agencies and support committees Where is 1996 – 2070) Penn Wharton Budget Model 11 Census Data Microsimulation “The Tax Cut and Jobs Act” Static Analysis 12 Revenue Impact Revenue Effect 2018-2027 (billions of $) Revenue Effect 2018-2040 (billions of $) Tax Provision JCT PWBM PWBM New tax rate Hits: 3
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf 302,800 by 2030. Senator Street requested how expansion of the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit could impact economic growth. The new Pennsylvania child and dependent care enhancement tax credit is equal to 30% of the credit claimed income quintile. 2 Studies generally find that federal subsidies (grants and/or tax credits) for childcare expenses have a positive impact on (1) the use of paid childcare and (2) the labor force participation rates of parents, especially women. Some recent Hits: 3
Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf 885. For those who do not retain or secure employment, average annual wage income falls by $10,646. Regarding the impact on hours worked, the analysis assumed a two to four percent reduction in hours worked for most part-time employees gains for workers who retain employment reflect the reduced hours worked. Regarding reduced benefits, the analysis did not include those impacts because most data sources suggest that the majority of workers who earn less than $12.00 per hour do not Hits: 3
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf one long-term, motivate somewhat more than one-half of the current labor force contraction and related worker shortage. The impact is more noticeable due to the dramatic reversal in the state economy when large numbers of workers were laid off excess deaths,” the great majority (nearly 90%) applies to residents age 65 or older. See IFO Research Brief COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths. 11 Additional U.S. LFPR detail is as follows: age 65 to 69 (33.3%), age 70 Hits: 3
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf recent and one long-term, motivate about one-half of the current labor force contraction and related worker shortage. The impact is more noticeable due to the dramatic reversal in the state economy when large numbers of workers were laid off excess deaths,” the great majority (nearly 90%) applies to residents age 65 or older. See IFO Research Brief COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths. 14 Additional U.S. LFPR detail is as follows: age 65 to 69 (33.3%), age 70 Hits: 3
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf million) was repealed and replaced with sales tax exemption for computer data center equipment purchases. The first full-year fiscal impact is in FY 2022-23 and is expected to reduce sales tax collections by approximately $40 million annually. • Act 25 The net benefit to purchasers is the differential between tax credits sold and monies received ($14.6 million). The annual impact is the difference between the tax credit claimed in that year and the amount paid for the credit. Due to Hits: 3
PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf Actuarial Impact of Act 5 of 2017 Presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association Independent Fiscal Office Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director 0.75 ppt increase/decrease in employee rate every 3 years; up to 3 ppts cumulatively.  Dollar-for-dollar impact on the employer rate. Impact on PSERS employer contributions and risk mitigation.  Maximum “Act 5 employee” impact of $9 Hits: 3
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf on the age of the "reference person" (person 1) or that person's spouse, whoever is older. Does not include impact of Property Tax/Rent Rebate Program on homeowners. In 2016, homeowners received $155.8 million in rebates. Source: Pennsylvania Department 0.87% 0.87% Note: Computations exclude any severance taxes. For unweighted U.S. figures, all states have the same impact on the average computation, regardless of size. For weighted U.S. figures, large states (California) have a much larger impact Hits: 3
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf is how the Fed will manage the sale of the assets it holds in its portfolio. o How will that impact interest rates? 24 . Sept . 2013 7 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet billions of dollars Sept Sept Sept 2007 2010 2013 US strong growth in Realty Transfer Tax collections. Reflects gains in number home sold and average price. o Most is quantity impact, not prices. Still far below FY 2006-07 peak: $571 million. o FY 2013-14 projection is $425 million. 24 Hits: 3
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf and Economic Outlook, various years. May.01.2018 11 FY 2017-18 Revenue Forecast May.01.2018 12 Corporate Income: impact from TCJA 2017.  Lowers federal rate from 35% to 21%.  Firms shift taxable income out of 2017. Personal 01.2018 16 Final payments underperform (March-April).  Another portion of final payment remitted in May.  Smaller NOL impact? More income shifting? How did firms respond to Tax Bulletin?  Has it been fully reflected in recent payments?  Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf to outcomes desired by policymakers and constituents.  Facilitates the comparison of the effectiveness of various agency activities and the impact on outcomes and statewide objectives.  Highlights factors within an agency’s control (e.g., activities and outputs) versus those that are outside an agency’s control (e.g., social-economic issues, weather) that impact high-level outcomes. 14 October 15, 2018 Implications for FY 2019-20  PBB plan limitations:  Does not provide Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf demographic trends.  Historical trends. Projections through 2025.  Disclaimer: trends may not translate to all local units. Aging’s impact on the state economy.  Economic growth. Job Creation. Spending patterns.  Service sector jobs. Slower growth. Housing pressures. Transition 424 All Other 140,003 166,290 -26,287 Source: 2016 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau.  Economic impacts of demographics are hard to isolate, but fundamental.  Trends only apparent over long time horizons.  Significant variation amongst Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf 2.52 $2.99 $2.92 Regional PA Hub (mcf) $3.14 $1.43 $1.55 $2.20 $2.36 Impact Fee (millions) $224 $188 $173 $218 n.a. Note: Production and new wells spud for horizontal wells only. Regional PA hub price is weighted average for the Dominion South and Leidy hubs. Impact Fee for 2017 is an IFO estimate. Sources: IFO tabulations of data submitted to the PA Department of Environmental Protection Hits: 3
PEW_Presentation(Video).pptx MD DC 5 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Three steps to effective evaluation • Step 1: Make a plan • Step 2: Measure the impact • Step 3: Inform policy choices pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives State tax incentive evaluation ratings pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Make a plan: Who cycle • Study incentives with similar goals in the same year • Coordinate evaluations with sunset dates pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Measure the impact: High-quality evaluations include… • A description of the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design Hits: 3
PEW_Presentation(Video).ppsx MD DC 5 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Three steps to effective evaluation • Step 1: Make a plan • Step 2: Measure the impact • Step 3: Inform policy choices pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives State tax incentive evaluation ratings pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Make a plan: Who cycle • Study incentives with similar goals in the same year • Coordinate evaluations with sunset dates pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Measure the impact: High-quality evaluations include… • A description of the incentive, its history, and goals • An assessment of the incentive’s design Hits: 3
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also provide agencies a the entire 911 community. Further tracking of Pennsylvania’s utilization of competitive federal grants can mitigate future disaster impacts and costs. PEMA currently tracks annual funds spent on hazard mitigation (HM), but if more local governments developed HM plans, they could Hits: 3
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf 25-26 Base Index SAWW ECI Average 16-17 to 21-22 SAWW: 2.5% ECI: 2.6% first year impact from 2020 job losses SAWW declines as jobs recover Sources: Index and components through 21-22 published by PDE. For with online presence  Investment in the home: gyms, meal preparation, entertainment, remodels Remote working is here to stay  Impacts restaurants, dry cleaners, formal/business casual clothing sales  Gasoline consumption down 10% for FY 2020-21 Businesses tighten belts Hits: 3
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf 2023 3 2020 2021 2022 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 Unemployment Comp $31.5 $16.9 $0.1 -- -- -- Economic Impact Payments 11.2 22.1 0.8 -- -- -- PPP Loans 20.7 10.0 -- -- -- -- CTC/ERC/Dependent Care -- 4.4 3 adults age 16+ working or looking for work Flat LFPR implies that more workers <65 joining labor force to offset impact of age 65+ 59 60 61 62 63 64 Jul-19 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul-20 Sep Nov Hits: 3
MTR-2019-09.pdf quarter of the fiscal year, total SUT base growth was 5.1 percent over the prior year, which excludes the impact of the one-time transfer. Monthly PIT collections outpaced the estimate by $34.9 million, largely due to quarterly payments than projected licenses and fees (-$15.0 million) and other miscellaneous collections (-$5.6 million). Licenses and fees revenue was impacted by the absence of bids for the sixth mini casino license. The estimate assumed one bid ($7.5 million) would Hits: 3
MTR-2015-10.pdf low consumer price inflation, Social Security recipients have received an average COLA of 1.9% per annum since 2007. The impact of Social Security benefits on the Pennsylvania economy is significant. In 2014, approximately 2.8 million Pennsylvania residents received Social comprise only 11.5% of total consumer purchases used in the CPI computation, its high volatility can have a noticeable impact on the CPI-W. In Pennsylvania, the CPI-W declined 0.2% in the third quarter of 2015 (year-over- Hits: 3
MRU-2020-06.pdf Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $545.2 million (-16.9 percent). The shortfall is almost entirely attributable to the impact of the COVID-19 virus. Fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 collections totaled $32.28 billion, $3.24 billion (-9.1 and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. The impact of the virus was partially offset by a $35 million overage in various other revenue sources. Corporate net income tax Hits: 3
MRU-2020-05.pdf released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $502.6 million (-19.3 percent) due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The shortfall is 70 million that will shift to fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. The impact of the virus was partially offset by a $10 million overage in various revenue sources. May fiscal-year-to-date Hits: 3
MRU-2020-04.pdf by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $2.16 billion (-49.8 percent), largely due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The IFO estimates by $357.3 million or 35.9 percent. Non-motor SUT collections were $230.3 million below estimate and were impacted by both reduced taxable sales related to the COVID-19 virus and the waiver of the pre-payment requirement for Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf the same week in 2019 and high-propensity business applications are 11.6% higher than 2019. New IRS Data Reveal Impact of TCJA on PA Taxpayers The IRS released state-level data for tax year 2018 that reveal the significant impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania residents that filed a federal income tax Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf Impact Fee Likely to Increase by Nearly $75 Million in 2022 The near-month settlement price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which Pennsylvania’s Impact Fee is based, is $5.84 per MMBtu for October. This is the highest monthly price recorded since enactment of Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf not imputed. Moreover, analysts have noted the disconnect between the Shelter component and very strong gains in the housing market. Impact Fee Revenues Could Increase Significantly in 2022 As noted in a WSJ article, natural gas prices have risen to levels prior years. The near-month settlement price of gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which Pennsylvania’s impact fee schedule is based, is $3.62 for July. This is the highest monthly price since January 2019, and it Hits: 3
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf issue final revenue estimate June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT rate reduction not evident in first estimated payment May 24, 2023 1 Critical Forecast Assumptions 1 No recession June Dec 21 June Dec 22 EIP 1 EIP 2 EIP 3 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. EIP is economic impact payment. Source: Federal Reserve Board. billions of dollars figures in italics are effective rates for cards w/ balance 16.2% Hits: 3
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf issue final revenue estimate June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT rate reduction not evident in first estimated payment May 24, 2023 1 Critical Forecast Assumptions 1 No recession June Dec 21 June Dec 22 EIP 1 EIP 2 EIP 3 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. EIP is economic impact payment. Source: Federal Reserve Board. billions of dollars figures in italics are effective rates for cards w/ balance 16.2% Hits: 3
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf Hearing on Impact of Minimum Wage Increase in Pennsylvania House Commerce Committee February 16, 2021 Matthew Knittel | Director | Independent Fiscal Office Good morning with significant jobs contraction (e.g., clothing stores) and certain subsectors that have expanded.  The third table shows the impact from COVID-19 on Pennsylvania job losses across age groups. Preliminary data show that younger workers were disproportionately impacted. Those Hits: 3
IFO_Response_Letter_Feb_21_2023.pdf letter submitted to our office on January 9, 2023. That letter requests that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) project the impact of an increase in the share of taxable income that C corporations may offset through net operating loss (NOL) deductions thereafter. The projected revenue loss associated with each scenario is detailed in the table on the next page. Overall, the impact is notably smaller than in prior IFO analyses of similar proposals due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) changes enacted Hits: 3
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdf the first tier and $720 million for the second tier. A total of 1.02 million senior households would be impacted by the proposal. The table also provides data for subsets of households not impacted by the proposal: senior homeowners above the income thresholds and all homeowners under age 65. These figures are provided for Hits: 3
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf Budget Outlook ▪ Will workers return? ▪ Does inflation decelerate? ▪ Do budget surpluses last? Property Tax Update ▪ No look at COVID-19 impact on SD collections yet ▪ Some data suggest decline not as bad as anticipated | stimulus ▪ SAWW at record high | elevated by return ▪ No wage-price spiral that further broadens inflation ▪ No major stock or housing market correction Significant Policy Risks ▪ Stimulus impact lingers, but how much longer? ▪ Some remains | child tax credit and SNAP Property Taxes ▪ First look at COVID-19 impact Hits: 3
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf by FY 2021-22 based on current fiscal policies. “While recently enacted revenue enhancements and expenditure policies had a meaningful impact on the FY 2016-17 budget, the impact diminishes over time; therefore, the long-term fiscal outlook is largely unchanged from last year.” Knittel said. The report finds Hits: 3
Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) to: Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover 5 million (FY 2018-19). The three-year total is $55.7 million. The All Funds column represents the total impact of the agreements. The Federal Funds column represents the estimated amounts that will be initially incurred by a state fund Hits: 3
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf 2022 Residents/Businesses $64.8 $57.3 $8.0 State and Federal UC 31.5 16.9 0.1 Economic Impact Payments 11.2 21.7 0.8 Paycheck Protection Program 20.7 10.0 0.0 Extra SNAP/CTC/Rent federal) ~$70 billion Number PA Borrowers 1.83 million Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Total Amount $640 million Monthly SUT Impact ~-$12 million FY 23-24 estimate assumes repayments resume -$150 million SUT impact, -1.2 ppts growth Moratorium extended to Hits: 3
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Jan-Dec: +9.6% (prelim) Anticipating flat March-April final payment  Down by -3.0% | form of payment shift | impact from safe harbors  Upside: strong stock market to end year  Natural gas royalties down due to prices January 1.1% 4.7% 6.5% 3.9% 3.6% 3.9% Note: The adjusted growth rates remove the estimated impact of Act 43-2017 and PA Bulletin 2018-01 from SUT. PIT for FY 20-21 excludes extra withholding deposit Hits: 3
2004_srpvffinal.pdf investment earnings over the period of employment. The fixed benefit in a DB pension plan means that the investment experience impacts the contribution requirements, increasing them when earnings are lower and decreasing them when earnings are higher. The fixed contributions in a DC pension plan mean that the investment experience impacts on the benefit amount, increasing it when earnings are higher and reducing it when earnings are lower. Therefore, the employer Hits: 3
2002_drop_report.pdf complexities that will occur if we delay addressing this issue. Thank you for your attention in this pressing matter, which impacts the 3,000 public employee retirement systems of the Commonwealth. Sincerely, Paul D. Halliwell Chairman -iii- Table of Contents Letter aid annually. DROP - 5 - Commission Rational for Developing Enabling Legislation (Cont’d) provisions may, in the absence of legislation, adversely impact the administration of Act 205 in at least the following areas. 1) Reporting Ambiguity. For actuarial reporting purposes, Act 205 Hits: 3
Releases Economic Update May 23, 2023 | Revenue & Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic , monthly , update Full Report Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement May 17, 2023 | Revenue Estimates The IFO will release its Initial B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." Tags: proposals , revenue Full Report April 2023 Hits: 3
SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx 2004 rate increase. 2 Sales and Use Tax index prior to any transfers. FY 2010-11 adjusted to remove the impact of a change in payment methods. 3 School Property Tax index includes delinquent taxes. FY 2012-13 is an estimate rate increase. 2 Sales and Use Tax growth rates prior to any transfers. FY 2010-11 adjusted to remove the impact of a change in payment methods. 3 School Property Tax growth rates include delinquent taxes. FY 2012-13 is an Hits: 2
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf 2022 Residents/Businesses $64.6 $58.1 $4.8 State and Federal UC 31.5 16.9 0.1 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 21.0 0.2 Paycheck Protection Program 20.7 10.0 0.0 Extra SNAP/CTC/Rent Jul 21 Jan 22 Jul 22 EIP 1 EIP 2 EIP 3 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. EIP is economic impact payment. Source: Federal Reserve Board. local peaks areDecember figures in italics are effective rates for cards w/ balance 16.2% Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf UC Extensions 3.1 3.2 0.0 6.3 SNAP 0.9 1.8 1.5 4.2 Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 Expanded Child Tax Credit -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar 3rd EIP 1st EIP 2nd EIP EIP is economic impact payment March 2022 -1.6% YOY nominal -10.7% YOY real nominal real Jan 2020 = 1.00 Corporate Net Income Hits: 2
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf Base/Normal Growth 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% All Internet Sales 0.6% 2.2% 0.8% Federal TCJA Impact --- 0.8% --- Residual Growth --- 0.7% 0.2% Note: Base Non-Motor Vehicle growth for FY 18-19 and FY Tax 595 -187 -23.9% Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. PIT is personal income tax. New Data That Could Impact FY 19-20 Forecast Significant deposits will be received  May sales tax  June personal income and corporate net Hits: 2
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf 658,600 $1,120 $1,700 65 or older - income less than $70,000 697,300 $1,200 $1,720 Impact of Proposed School District Property Tax Rebate (2017) Source: 2017 American Community Survey 1- Year Public Use Microdata Survey (PUMS the IFO. 2 Income includes retirement income such as Social Security, pensions and IRA withdrawals. 1 Millions of dollars. Excludes impact from elimination of Property Tax Rent Rebate Program. August 16, 2019 Page 2 The figures shown in the table assume Hits: 2
RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdf series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commonwealth and federal government enacted a renter eviction duplicates. Figures that use these data should be considered upper bound estimates and may overstate the number of unique households impacted. 6 See: United States Treasury Department, Emergency Rental Assistance Program. $13 $131 $247 $197 $181 $160 $146 $137 $128 $124 Hits: 2
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and related mitigation efforts, many firms have struggled to of the differential is likely due to the higher composition of part-time workers in the child care sector. The impact of higher wages on the industry’s payroll costs is notable. For CY 2019, total wages paid for the state Hits: 2
RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdf their household size or (2) $95 per month, whichever is greater (combined, known as emergency allotments). The table displays the impact of the emergency allotments, which doubled the average benefit compared to May 2019. On September 22, 2022, the Department of will also likely reduce the supply of labor, which is reinforced by expansion of the income thresholds. Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 700 800 900 1000 1100 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1 Hits: 2
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf The COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on state employment and labor force participation rates (i.e., the share of residents working or actively seeking employment). For working age and it is likely that the younger age cohort did not have dependent children, and so were not impacted by issues related to securing childcare or remote learning. Moreover, data from the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS Hits: 2
RB-2018-01.pdf property tax collections are from homesteads after applying the local tax relief. The differential of six percentage points represents the impact of the local relief. Proposals to replace property taxes on homesteads may either include or exclude the value of the legislation governing its use and financing. The estimates from Table 5 provide policymakers with additional information to quantify the fiscal impact of proposals that utilize the revised limits for homestead exclusions. Table 5: School Property Tax ‐ Estimated Homestead Share Fiscal Year Hits: 2
RB-2015-02-annual_vs_lifetime_ETR.pdf rate is useful when comparing state severance taxes because it incorporates not only the statutory tax rate, but also the impact of any special provisions on tax liability. This document provides a description of two possible effective tax rates and some comparisons because the age of the well and volume of production are the same across all states. Therefore, the relative impact of more favorable special provisions can be quantified. The measure is also prospective: it reflects current technology and current prices Hits: 2
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf global demand: EU and China. 12.Feb.2015 18 Savings from Gas Price Drop Consumers: Direct Sales and Use Tax Impact. • Jul to Dec 2014: +$10 to $15 million. • Jan to Jun 2015: +$45 to $60 million. • Assumes roughly two-thirds spend disposable income. • More inclined to borrow. Businesses: Lower Costs Increase Net Profits. 12.Feb.2015 19 Potential Tax Revenue Impact Latest Forecast Calls for Low Inflation in 2015. • Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Philadelphia metro region. • Due to low gasoline Hits: 2
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf 07% to 3.70%. Expands tax forgiveness credit and taxes lottery winnings. 3 Equal to new severance tax less existing impact fee ($225 million per annum) starting in FY 2016-17. 4 Raises cigarette tax from $1.60 to $2.60 99% to 4.99% over several years. 22.Jun.2015 7 Executive Budget: Tax Relief 22.Jun.2015 8 Revenue Impact Summary 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Revenue Increases $4,908 $7,974 $8,476 $9 Hits: 2
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf 5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 7 Impact of 2016 Wage Growth Forecast SAWW Base ECI Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Forecast by IFO using data from the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, IFO (November 2017). March 8, 2018 Pension Update Act 5 Impacts on PSERS Employer Contributions and Normal Cost Minor Short-Term Effect Long-Term Risk Mitigation Act 5: Employer Contributions Change Hits: 2
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf 2017 2 The widespread 2008-2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets.  Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years.  Spending reductions/restraint for many program areas.  Recession hit pension funds, contributing to funding issues median age (40.7 years). Surge in Retirements.  Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for 65+.  Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? Decline in working age population. Demographic Takeaways 10.Feb.2017 6 PA Snapshot Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf as: asset/liability mismatch, longevity and demographic, interest rate, and contribution risks. Implemented using a sensitivity analysis.  Examined the impact of one percentage point and two percentage point reductions in the assumed rate of return.  Quantified the projected change under the new law become less sensitive to a lower earnings assumption, but the effect phases in over time. Little impact in the initial years after enactment.  In the long term, for affected new employees, the potential increase in employer Hits: 2
perez ppt.pdf tax collections remain below pre-recession levels – Officials are concerned about the strength of economic growth – Questions remain about the impact of federal deficit reduction on state budgets – The total state budget gap: $527.7 billion (FY 2008- FY 2013 est improving  A number of significant uncertainties loom: – Demands on state budgets – The strength and sustainability of economic recovery – The impact of federal actions on state budgets For More Information www.ncsl.org/fiscal arturo.perez@ncsl.org Top Fiscal Issues Hits: 2
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf is tepid.  Demand and price effects create imbalance. May 24, 2017 2 I. Demographic Trends  Subtle, yet crucial impact.  Hard to see in a single year.  Determines work force, income sources and consumer spending patterns.  PA based on reasonable and plausible assumptions. May 24, 2017 23 Wrap Up  Decisions by Baby Boomers will have significant impact on PA economy.  Work or retire?  Restrain spending or leverage assets?  Funding sources for senior programs face Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf attractiveness of site ▪ PA only state to base tax credit on job creation only September 28, 2021 3 KSDZ Economic Impact Challenges Program currently has a small number of participants ▪ No research exists that links a job creation tax credit to tax credit reviews September 28, 2021 5 Keystone Special Development Zones (KSDZ) Recommendations ▪ Implement program/project caps | limits potential tax impact ▪ Front loading credits enhances value and could increase participation • Current: $2,100 over 10 years ($21,000) • Alternates: $3,000 Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf Reports of Need (RONs) up 39% in 60+ pop ▪ Investigations increased 70% | substantiated abuse or neglect cases up 91% ▪ Pandemic impacted access to some in-person services which may have contributed to increase in self-neglect cases (from 38% to 48% 4% June 2017 to 5.1% in June 2019 and to 4.3% in June 2020 (latest year available, pandemic impacted) January 25, 2022 5 Department of Human Services (DHS) Part 1 (2020): MA, SNAP, TANF, Child Support (50%) Part 2 Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf measures only ▪ Need dedicated resources and standardized measures at the local level January 9, 2023 2 Common Themes (Continued) Monitor impact of new funding on agency goals and outcomes ▪ DCNR – state funding for 3 new state parks in FY 22-23 healthcare costs ▪ Federal American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act funding for initiatives in DDAP and DCNR PBB reports reflect the significant impact of COVID-19 ▪ More variance noted in agency resources (FTEs and funding) and program outcomes January 9, 2023 3 Department Hits: 2
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those total energy savings over the last six years. (See pages 23 to 25.) Agency Overview | Page 8 Outdoor Recreation Industry Impact The table to the right uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to compare Pennsylvania’s Hits: 2
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also provide agencies a overdose death rate increased to 12 th highest in the nation from 28 th highest in 2014. The impact of the high rate of opioid use is evident in other health outcomes as well. Based on the latest data available for Hits: 2
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also provide agencies a care and attend medical appointments, and in doing so lead healthier lives, which in turn reduces the fiscal impact on the MA program. Resources 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Hits: 2
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact the residents of the state. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also Curricula to be com- pleted by juveniles provide information, instruction and tools to increase their awareness of the impact of crime on victims and the community.  Juveniles that made full restitution to their victim(s). As part of ensuring accountability Hits: 2
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact the residents of the state. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also events. This measures the audience reached at Department events. However, this measure does not necessarily reflect the educational impact or value of these events and does not include media impressions.  Recommended: Number of elder financial abuse cases. This measure informs Hits: 2
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact the residents of the state. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also immediate fiscal challenges and concentrated its efforts primarily around a few programmatic initiatives that we knew could positively impact the Commonwealth financially as a whole:  restoring commercial best practices such as strategic sourcing and reverse auctions to the Commonwealth’s Hits: 2
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf The economic incidence will be different. The property tax figure deducts redirected slots tax relief monies. 19 19.May.2017 Impacts Will Vary Owner Renter Working Retired Working Retired Lower millage -6% -31% 14% 8% Moderate millage -16% -41% 14% 8% or homeowners only? Large tax changes produce winners and losers.  All current homeowners benefit from a windfall gain.  Impact on new homebuyers is unclear.  Renters generally worse off. Depends on amount of property tax cut passed through to Hits: 2
NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf The continued slowdown in production has likely resulted from the combination of (1) a persistently low-price environment and (2) impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for natural gas. There were 113 new horizontal wells spud in the EIA projects that national demand for natural gas will decline for the first time since 2009, largely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related mitigation efforts. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman and Rachel Hits: 2
NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf in production likely resulted from the combination of (1) a persistently low-price environment for natural gas and (2) early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. There were 153 new horizontal wells spud in the first quarter of 2020. This figure likely due to the combination of (1) strong supply growth and (2) weak demand related to mild weather and early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh. Questions regarding this Hits: 2
Newsstand_February_2020.pdf in the eastern and central regions of the state. If the spotted lanternfly were to spread across the state, the impact to the Pennsylvania economy could be $324 million annually including a loss of 2,800 jobs. The majority of the direct losses would impact the agricultural industry, especially nursery operators, and fruit and Christmas tree farms. Income Tax Breaks for Seniors Estimated at $1 Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_June.pdf had higher growth (6.2%) than Pennsylvania. Nationwide existing home price growth was 5.1% year-over-year. Opioid Crisis Impacts PA Productivity and Healthcare On June 4, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a brief that examines the opioid using data from the Third District, which includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The article explores the epi- demic’s impact on labor force participation rates and economic costs. It finds that the total per capita cost of the opioid epidemic Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf peers. Natural Gas The average price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania Impact Fee is based, settled at $2.63 for calendar year 2019. This represents a 15% decline from the prior year since 2016. In July, the IFO estimated that if the average NYMEX price for 2019 settled below $3.00, then Impact Fee collections would decline by $37 million compared to 2018. The IFO will release an updated projection of 2019 collections Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_August.pdf Bachelor’s degree or less were relatively small when compared to workers with advanced degrees. New Federal Tax Data Reflect Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act The IRS released tax filing statistics for 2018 federal returns filed through July history. For August, the average price of gas on the New York Mercantile Ex- change (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania Impact Fee is based, settled at its lowest level in over three years. Summer prices typically apply upward pressure on the Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf 1.3%), and New York (1.1%). For the U.S., the rate was 2.0%. New Tariffs Have Disparate Impacts on PA Counties On July 6, the Wall Street Journal published an analysis based on a report from Moody’s that computes the impact of new U.S. and Chinese tariffs. The analysis shows the share of the county economic output or GDP that Hits: 2
MTR-2019-05.pdf were $39.4 million below projection largely due to annual payments falling short of estimate. However, these collections were negatively impacted by a $35.6 million misposting that occurred in April but was not corrected (reversed) until May. FYTD PIT collections treasury collections which were partially offset by a shortfall in licenses and fees (-$3.7 million). Licenses and fees were impacted by a delayed transfer ($7.7 million) to the Insurance Regulation and Oversight Fund (IROF) that was expected in April Hits: 2
MTR-2018-06.pdf issues related to fluctuating payment due dates.  The non-tax revenue year-over-year growth rate (next page) was impacted by (1) a $50 million slots license fee, (2) a $24.8 million table games certification fee, (3) $127 million of the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex and other miscellaneous transfers.  The monthly and year-over-year growth rates were impacted by tax amnesty collections in June 2017, including: CNIT ($25.1 million), gross receipts tax ($3.8 million), insurance premiums Hits: 2
MTR-2018-04.pdf issues related to fluctuating payment due dates.  The non-tax revenue year-over-year growth rate (next page) was impacted by (1) a new $50 million slots license fee, (2) $127 million from the auction of new casino licenses, (3 the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex and other miscellaneous transfers.  The PIT withholding revenue monthly growth rate (next page) was impacted by a quarterly payment that occurred in May last year and April this year. Sales and Use Tax — Motor SELECT Hits: 2
MTR-2018-03.pdf 2) issues related to fluctuating payment due dates. The non-tax revenue year-over-year growth rate (next page) was impacted by (1) a new $50 million slots license fee, (2) $90.2 million from the auction of new casino licenses of the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex and other miscellaneous transfers. The PIT withholding revenue monthly growth rate (next page) was impacted by an extra payment due date in March 2017. Sales and Use Tax — Motor SELECT GENERAL FUND TAX REVENUES ANNUAL Hits: 2
MTR-2017-08.pdf Hampshire (31.3), while the lowest rates were in Nebraska (3.1) and South Dakota (3.5). The opioid crisis impacts the economy by shrinking the labor force. A recent study by Goldman Sachs finds that the crisis may be connected 0 million from corporate net income tax.  The personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by a quarterly filer due date that occurred in August last year but in July this year.  The graphs Hits: 2
MTR-2017-07.pdf 1 million from corporate net income tax.  The personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by a weekly filer due date (extra Friday) that occurred in July last year but in June this year as filer due date that occurred in August last year but in July this year.  Realty transfer tax collections were impacted by a transfer due to Act 58 of 2015. The transfer was -$12.7 million in July 2016 and -$17 Hits: 2
MTR-2017-04.pdf The graphs above correct for these transfers.)  The personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by a weekly filer due date (extra Friday) that occurred in April last year and in March this year. (The personal income tax withholding graph above corrects for this difference.)  Corporate net income collections were impacted by a change to the filing deadline, which was moved from April 15 to May 15 for calendar-year filers Hits: 2
MTR-2017-01.pdf Due to the combination of the low inventory of homes and rising interest rates, it is unclear what the net impact on housing prices and sales will be going forward. January 2017 Monthly Trends Report Pennsylvania Housing Market 1 National Association The graphs above correct for these transfers.)  The personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by (1) a weekly filer due date (extra Friday) that occurred in January last year and in December this year Hits: 2
MTR-2016-12.pdf real GDP growth does not control for population changes, which can have a positive (population increases) or negative (population declines) impact. According to the Pennsylvania State Data Center 1 , six states recorded population declines from 2015 to 2016, including Pennsylvania (-0 The graphs above correct for these transfers.)  The personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by (1) a weekly filer due date (extra Wednesday) that occurred in December last year and in November this year Hits: 2
MTR-2016-09.pdf strength of the U.S. dollar and energy prices. However, even if dairy prices fully recover to 2014 levels, the impact on overall food inflation will be modest, since dairy purchases comprise a little more than ten percent of consumer spending Tax; and $2.7 million from Inheritance Tax.  Personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by an extra weekly filer due date that occurred in September of 2015, but occurred in August this year.  Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf Level in Decades The average price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania impact fee is based, settled at $1.50 for July. This is the lowest monthly price in over 20 years. The in 2019. In June, the IFO projected that if the average NYMEX price for 2020 settled below $2.25, then impact fee collections would be $147 million, a $53 million (26.5%) decline compared to 2019. This would be the lowest Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf individuals and are not seasonally adjusted. Although the data are not seasonally adjusted, the YOY comparison should control for the impact of normal seasonal factors. To adjust for inflation, the nominal data are deflated by the Philadelphia CPI-U using the rate for December (59.8%, non-seasonally adjusted) was the lowest rate for that month since December 1984) and the impact of Federal Reserve actions to slow growth of the money supply and raise interest rates. Monthly Economic Update February 2022 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf Over 70% of Economic Impact Payments Saved or Used to Pay Down Debt The New York Federal Reserve released findings from two pandemic-related surveys. Survey recipients were asked to classify how they spent the first round of Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) and how they would spend a second-round payment. Respondents reported the share of the payment used for Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf sectors recovered nearly the same share of jobs lost compared to two other large sectors that were not as negatively impacted by the pandemic: manufacturing (-77,000 loss, 51% recovered) and healthcare (-89,000 loss, 47% recovered). Pennsylvanians Received Over $25 benefits. Finally, the state-funded UC program has provided an additional $4.7 billion in support to unemployed workers. The impact of the UC payments is visible in the U.S. personal income data for 2020 Q2 published by the U Hits: 2
MER-2013-12.pdf purchases (1.1 percent) were also tepid. Some analysts fear that GDP growth will taper again. However, some recent negative impacts have been absorbed or were a one-time occurrence. In 2012 Q4, federal government purchases caused a large hit to led to further declines in the contri- bution of federal government purchases to real GDP growth (-0.7 percent). The impact of the sequester appears to be mostly absorbed as federal govern- ment purchases caused only a minor reduction in real Hits: 2
Letter_to_JSGC.pdf was inserted at the bottom of page 74 that describes Table 13. Table 13 does not note that the economic impact figure is in millions of dollars. Page 75 Contains an entirely new table (Table 14, “Value-added Multiplier Effect of did not use what is known as the “value-added” concept. The new table does not note that the economic impact figure is in millions of dollars. The table also uses an incorrect name for one of the multipliers that does Hits: 2
Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf Impact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.3 billion will Hits: 2
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Federal Housing Finance Agency. 6 02.May.2017 Economic factors all have negative impact.  Wage growth underperforms despite strong labor market.  Business investment disappoints, but picking up.  Natural gas prices collapsed are in millions. PIT is personal income tax. 1 Base growth rate controls for (1) changes in tax law that impact revenues, (2) an extra withholding day last fiscal year and (3) one-time transfers. 10 02.May.2017 FY 2016- Hits: 2
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf retirement accounts). Adjusting for a January 1 effective date, the IFO estimates that roughly 40% of the full-year PIT impact would be received in the first fiscal year. For FY 2022-23, the full-year PIT estimate is $11.1 fiscal year estimates based on the anticipated date of implementation. These estimates should be viewed as approximations and include the impact of changes in behavior and compliance at full implementation for each of the proposed tax increases. In the short term Hits: 2
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf full-and part-time. Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: "Analysis of Revenue Proposals," IFO (March 2019). Projected Employment Impact (2018) May 15, 2019 9 Lower Upper % Change Avg Wage # Jobs Affected Change # Jobs % Change Avg Wage # Jobs Affected Change Total Part- and Full-Time 1,110 -34.2 Source: "Analysis of Revenue Proposals," IFO (March 2019). Projected Annual Income Impact (2018) May 15, 2019 10 Lower Upper Total Gain ($ million) Per Worker $ Gain Total Gain ($ million) Per Worker $ Gain $7 Hits: 2
House_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf latest data for Pennsylvania employment by race and gender. The data show that the COVID-19 pandemic had a disparate impact on employment by race. The strongest employment contraction was in 2020 Q3, with 632,000 fewer workers employed relative to 7.9% -7.1% 2021 Q2 1.0% -3.0% 7.7% 4.2% 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% Impact of COVID-19 on Pennsylvania Workers by Race and Gender Number of Workers (000s) 1 Other includes American Indian or Hits: 2
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf Director, Independent Fiscal Office Attachment February 28, 2020 Page 2 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Total Total Impact $162.2 $347.3 $553.1 $746.0 $1,808.6 Department: Aging 0.3 0.6 0.9 1 94.9 128.0 310.3 Other 2 3.0 6.4 10.2 13.8 33.4 Notes: ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENTS 1 1 Bargaining Units included are the following: American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Hits: 2
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf exceeded. 1 Includes reduction amounts from the District of Columbia. REAP Program Recommendations Collaborate with DEP on environmental modeling ▪ Evaluate impact of BMPs at the program level ▪ Award credits based on objective data for maximum impact ▪ Identify most cost-effective BMP for farming operation/location Convert tax credit to a competitive grant ▪ Target operations that likely Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf except student loans.  Housing values up 4.4%. Corporate profits appear to rebound. Federal tax reform may have material impact.  Large tax cuts for corporate and pass-through business income.  100% full expensing for 2018 may delay business Total Net Job Gains 99.3 41.7 58.1 November 16, 2017 20 Thousands of annual job gains Revenue Impact of Two Recessions Mild Recession 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Forecast Personal Income 6.0% -4.7% -0.5% Hits: 2
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf 15 $2.57 Regional PA Hub Price $2.99 $1.36 $1.47 $2.09 $2.59 $2.10 PA Impact Fee ($ millions) $224 $188 $173 $210 $252 $198 Effective Tax Rate 2.3% 6.3% 4.5% 2.8% 2 Production and wells spud are from PA Department of Environmental Protection. Prices are from Bentek Energy. Units are $ per MMBtu. Impact fee historicals are from the PA Public Utility Commission, based on drilling year, not year of receipt. 2019 is estimated Hits: 2
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf prior form Consumer spending is remarkably robust  Spending shifts to home remodeling, furniture/appliances, groceries, cars  But what impact from loss of $600 weekly FPUC payment? July revenues exceed expectation  Car sales tax breaks record | projected $2 billion not include self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment data. Miscellaneous Economic Notes What impact from expiration of federal programs?  March 15 to end of July: $15.5 billion FPUC and $4.4 billion Hits: 2
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf 18 Executive Budget presentation, Feb. 7, 2017. Excludes all policy initiatives. Proposed Deficit Reduction February 28, 2017 4 2-Year Impact Revenue Package $1,006 Revenue Enhancements 304 Loans or Leasebacks 335 Gaming Expansion 250 Reduce Tax Credits 100 Consolidation/Closures Slots and table games revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds. Table games excludes impact of temporary rate increase for FY 2016-17. Budget Cost Drivers February 28, 2017 13 Dollar Amounts Growth 2015-16 Hits: 2
Announcement_2021.pdf IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. The presentation will examine various issues that impact the economic and budget outlook: (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 Hits: 2
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf school property taxes due to the implementation of Act 25 of 2011. The request also included an estimate of the impact on residential property and business property taxpayers. This analysis provides a high-level estimate of the potential impact on taxpayers from Act 25 from fiscal year (FY) 2012- 13 to FY 2020-21. Act 25 of 2011, which Hits: 2
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf from homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. 2 Factors that can impact growth rates are (1) the share of payments made in the discount, base and penalty periods, (2) late/delinquent payments property tax collections are from homesteads after applying the local tax relief. The differential of six percentage points represents the impact of the local relief. Proposals to replace property taxes on homesteads may either include or exclude the value of the Hits: 2
2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf 553.1 Total 163.8 350.9 559.6 754.2 1,828.5 Note: Figures in dollar millions. Fiscal impact includes wages, benefits and healthcare costs. Agreements with missing figures will be populated when the contract summaries and data are and the PA Gaming Control Board. All other agencies (Treasury, Judiciary, Legislature, etc.,) are not included in the analysis. FISCAL IMPACT OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENTS CreationDate: 2021-09-27 16:34:10 Creator: Microsoft® Excel® for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2021-09- Hits: 2
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf 0.3% 5.3% Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Snapshot: Impact of Increasing Income Taxes on Dividend Payments Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Over the past year, there has been discussion on how the increase in federal income taxes would impact the economy and more specifically the tim- ing of dividend payments paid by corporations to their shareholders. Various media outlets Hits: 2
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf The net benefit to purchasers is the differential between tax credits sold and monies received ($14.6 million). The annual impact is the difference between the tax credit claimed in that year and the amount paid for the credit. Due to Hits: 1
Senate_Maj_Policy_Comm_April_13_2021.pdf Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Pennsylvania Leisure and Hospitality Sector Senate Majority Policy Committee April 13, 2021 Year-Over-Year Change Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf of Education, the updated financial statement incorporates appropriations proposed in the Executive Budget through FY 2026-27 to reflect the impact of initiatives in the outyears (e.g., the shift in Nellie Bly Tuition Program costs to the General Fund). For Hits: 1
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf property tax collections are from homesteads after applying the local tax relief. The differential of six percentage points represents the impact of the local relief. Proposals to replace property taxes on homesteads may either include or exclude the value of the Hits: 1
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf property tax collections are from homesteads after applying the local tax relief. The differential of six percentage points represents the impact of the local relief. Proposals to replace property taxes on homesteads may either include or exclude the value of the Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf billion, an increase of $662 million (2.1 percent) over FY 2015-16. The projection includes $106 million for the impact of recent statutory changes to the Liquor Code. Excluding those statutory changes, the base projection is $31 million lower than Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf percent over the prior year. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. Relative to the revenue estimates contained in the Executive Budget released on March 3rd, these Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf percent) over the prior year. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to continue expanding in FY 2015-16,” Knittel said. “However Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf percent over the prior year. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. Relative to the revenue estimates contained in February’s Executive Budget, these projections are $572 Hits: 1
REU-2019-12.pdf falling in November, the 3-month and 12-month non-motor SUT growth rates leveled off in December. The full impact of the holiday shopping season will not be known until January collections are received.  The 3-month and 12- Hits: 1
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf the estimates are not reduced for administrative costs, which would likely be significant under this proposal. ▪ The estimates include the impact of changes in behavior and compliance at full implementation for each of the proposed tax rates. ▪ The additional sales and Hits: 1
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf estimates are not reduced for administrative costs, which would likely be significant under this proposal.  The estimates include the impact of changes in behavior and compliance at full implementation for each of the proposed tax rates.  Your letter indicates Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf household income of $40,000 or less. Your letter also requested the following details/parameters:  The number of households impacted by the proposal.  The annual loss of tax revenue associated with (1) school district property taxes and (2) county Hits: 1
RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdf and reduced consumption implies that Pennsylvania will have less state funds available for those critical infrastructure projects. These trends also impact the amount of matching funds available to leverage federal funding. Over the next five years, Pennsylvania is projected to receive Hits: 1
RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. As part of the omnibus appropriations bill passed December 2022, the final month of SNAP emergency allotments Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf rate since December 1984. The total wages metric displays stronger growth because it is a broader measure that includes the impact of new jobs added from the prior year (or rehires) and employment shifting across industries (i.e., leaving a low- Hits: 1
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf pension legislation. The acts below were analyzed by the IFO prior to enactment and are notable for current and future impacts to the systems. • Act 5 of 2017: For both state systems, the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and Public School Hits: 1
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf and increases the average annual growth rate for personal income from 3.9% to 4.1% per annum. This adjustment impacts Figure 2 and the 2016 raw data for Philadelphia County. Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5- Hits: 1
RB-2016-02.pdf oil or other fuels, or to convert natural gas to ethane, propane or other substances. Marcellus Legacy Fund expenditures from impact fee revenues support these projects. Life Sciences Greenhouses $966 $3,000 Advances biotech and medical device startups by provid‐ ing Hits: 1
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf Program. This program lent $61.0 million to support small businesses (less than 100 full-time employees) that were adversely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation measures. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 14-15 15-16 16-17 17- Hits: 1
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf natural gas producers, and the material reduction in natural gas royalty payments due to lower prices likely had a significant impact on income growth. For 2015, tax data suggest that natural gas royalty income may have comprised between 10 to 15 Hits: 1
QRR_2014Q2.pdf Review April to June 2014 Page 3 Motor License Fund Overview Legislation enacted in December 2013 (Act 89) impacts the reporting and comparison of actual Liquid Fuels Taxes and certain fee revenue. The estimates reflected in Table 2 were not adjusted Hits: 1
QRE_FY14-15.pdf Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 16, 2014; and 2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. The adjustments for statutory changes are summarized in the tables below. Additional Hits: 1
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf this legislation. The Commis- sion’s actuarial notes are required to provide a reliable estimate of both the immediate financial impact and the long- - 4 - range actuarial effect of proposed legislation affecting public employee retirement systems. Additional Responsibilities. Under Act 205 Hits: 1
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf analysis depending on requests/data available ▪ Performance Based Budgets (PBB) and Tax Credit reviews ▪ Natural Gas: quarterly production reports, annual impact fee collections January 19, 2022 1 Latest Pennsylvania Demographic Forecast January 19, 2022 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s Hits: 1
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf 12.96 $13.70 $14.38 DIFFERENCE $0.00 -$0.39 -$0.69 -$0.89 -$1.03 Projected Sales Tax Impact: FY 2018-19 1/19/2017 7 Amount ($ millions) Share of Total Increase Sales Tax Rate $1,828 26.8% Hits: 1
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf FY 2017-18, which would be sufficient to maintain a positive ending balance for the current year. However, the budgetary impact largely is temporary as most of the proceeds are derived from borrowing (securitization) and one-time fund transfers.  Enacted Hits: 1
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf amounts are in millions. *FY 2016‐17 Executive Budget, General Fund Financial Statement, p. C1.5. Excludes proposed revenue changes. Impact of Demographics on the Long‐Term Economic and Budget Outlook 10 May 13, 2016 All Demographic Projections from Penn State Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf 3.0% Note: millions of dollars. Non-motor vehicle sales tax only; excludes motor vehicle sales tax. Internet SUT represents impact of ecommerce/nexus, digital downloads and Act 43 of 2017. Forecasts by IFO. Gaming Expansion Estimates November 19, 2018 11 Hits: 1
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf April 19, 2023 9 2020 2021 2022 2023.1 2023.2 Unemployment Comp $31.5 $16.9 $0.1 -- -- Economic Impact Payments 11.2 22.1 0.8 -- -- Paycheck Protection 20.7 10.0 -- -- -- Child Tax Credit and ERC -- 4.4 Hits: 1
platt ppt.pdf Receipts Pre-recession Peak to Current Percent Changes (Pre-recession Peak-2008Q2, Current-2011Q3) United States Pennsylvania www.bea.gov Impact of Recession & Recovery on Wages by State 10 -5.4 -2.9 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Nevada New York Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf currently being implemented in one bureau ▪ System could create efficiencies related to electronic processing in multiple bureaus Inspector efficiency was impacted by COVID-19 ▪ Retail food inspections per inspector fell 40% in FY 19-20 | temporary operations pause in March ▪ Food Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf compare to other states and U.S.? April 27, 2021 1 Common Issues Across Reports PBB reports reflect the significant impact of Covid-19 ▪ Pandemic affected agency caseloads, staffing, operations and related performance data ▪ In some cases, Covid-19 affected available Hits: 1
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf supports the broader purpose of the PBB plans: to facilitate a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those Hits: 1
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf broader purpose of the PBB plans: to encourage a more informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Descriptive metrics provide relevant information to policymakers that increase their general knowledge of agency operations. They also provide agencies a Hits: 1
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf 2023 7 2020 2021 2022 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 Unemployment Comp $31.5 $16.9 $0.1 -- -- -- Economic Impact Payments 11.2 22.1 0.8 -- -- -- PPP Loans 20.7 10.0 -- -- -- -- CTC/ERC/Dependent Care -- 4.4 3 Hits: 1
NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf seven wells (6.2%) from the same period in the prior year. The second quarter of 2020 includes the first impacts of COVID-19 on natural gas production and drilling. This results in the year-over-year drilling increase for 2021 Hits: 1
NFIB_Presentation.pdf 13.2017 12 dot com bust housing bust Note: General Fund only. Excludes special and miscellaneous funds. Closing Comments Unclear: Impact of federal tax reform. ◦ 100% expensing (bonus depreciation). Will PA decouple? ◦ How will pass through entities be treated? Possible property Hits: 1
Newsstand_March_2020.pdf from the same period in 2019. The average price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the PA Impact Fee is based, was $1.95 through March, a 38.0 percent decline from 2019. There were 138 new horizontal Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf A recent article from Forbes magazine discusses the production of shale gas in Pennsylvania and surrounding states and its potential impact on the economy and communities. The article notes that production from the Utica and Marcellus Shale basins will “provide a Hits: 1
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf Year Recovery Projects CO • Governor created 3 bipartisan committees to consider proposals and make recs. • Broadband; Water and Sewer; Economic Impact KS MA NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES Avoiding the Fiscal Cliff ○ Managing one-time expenditures • Distinguishing budgets and projects • Non- Hits: 1
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf  FY 2017-18: revenue forecast holding up so far.  But forecast assumes federal tax cut.  Uncertainty could impact collections (again).  Healthcare and Pensions drive spending growth.  SERS employer contribution rate projected to fall.  State share Hits: 1
MTR-2019-07.pdf The motor vehicle 3-month growth rate has trended downward since July 2018, when many analysts be- lieve the economic impact from the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act peaked. The 12-month growth rate re- mains strong, but should revert Hits: 1
MTR-2018-10.pdf for fees associated with gaming expansion. The actual amount received was $20.1 million. Escheats collections for the month were impacted by lower than expected escheats payments and higher than anticipated claims by property owners. FYTD non-tax collections are below Hits: 1
MTR-2018-1.pdf issues related to fluctuating payment due dates.  The non-tax revenue year-over-year growth rate (next page) was impacted by (1) a new $50 million slots license fee, (2) $90.2 million from the auction of newly created casino Hits: 1
MTR-2018-09.pdf estimate ($34.1 million) for September, primarily due to lower than expected escheat payments to property owners. These payments were impacted by delayed processing and lower overall claims for property. To the extent that payments to holders were delayed, they are Hits: 1
MTR-2018-07.pdf 19 projections contained in the IFO Official Revenue Estimate published on June 18, 2018 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted after June 18th. 1 General Fund collections were $12 million (0.5 percent) above Hits: 1
MTR-2018-05.pdf 2) issues related to fluctuating payment due dates. The non-tax revenue year-over-year growth rate (next page) was impacted by (1) a new $50 million slots license fee, (2) $127 million from the auction of new casino licenses, (3 Hits: 1
MTR-2018-02.pdf issues related to fluctuating payment due dates.  The non-tax revenue year-over-year growth rate (next page) was impacted by (1) a new $50 million slots license fee, (2) $90.2 million from the auction of new casino licenses Hits: 1
MTR-2017-10.pdf IFO’s official estimate assumed that most of that income would be reported in 2017, and would have a positive impact on FY 2017-18 revenues. Currently, it is unclear if federal income tax cuts will be enacted. If they are Hits: 1
MTR-2017-06.pdf SUT; and $25.1 million for CNIT.  The personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by a weekly filer due date (extra Wednesday) that occurred in June 2016 but in May 2017 as well as Hits: 1
MTR-2017-03.pdf The graphs above correct for these transfers.)  The personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by a weekly filer due date (extra Friday) that occurred in April last year and in March this year. (The Hits: 1
MTR-2017-02.pdf The graphs above correct for these transfers.)  The personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by a quarterly filer due date that occurred in February last year and in January this year. (The personal income Hits: 1
MTR-2016-11.pdf tax. (The graphs above correct for these transfers.)  Personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by (1) a weekly filer due date that occurred in December last year but occurred in November this year, and Hits: 1
MTR-2016-10.pdf tax. (The graphs above correct for these transfers.)  Personal income tax withholding collections year-over-year growth rate was impacted by (1) a weekly filer due date that occurred in October last year but occurred in September this year, and Hits: 1
MTR-2016-02.pdf total CNIT payments in FY 2014-15, and the significant decline in their third quarter profits may have a notable impact on tax collections in March and April, when corporations remit their final payments for tax year 2015. February 2016 Monthly Hits: 1
MTR-2015-07.pdf for the U.S. While the factors behind these trends remain unclear, it is likely that higher college attendance negatively impacts the LFPR of these age groups. While the middle-aged working population also saw LFPRs decline over the same 15- Hits: 1
MRU_2021_07.pdf annual payments also recorded declines (-$414.2 million and -$884.2 million, respectively). PIT collections in the prior year were impacted by virus- related due date extensions. After adjusting for the shift and extra due date, quarterly payments exceeded prior year Hits: 1
MRU-2020-07.pdf bolstered by pent-up demand from COVID-19 business closures earlier this year and the continued effect of federal economic impact payments and enhanced unemployment compensation benefits. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for July were $2.31 billion, an increase of Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf the table below are based on surveys that occurred prior to the start of the school year and could be impacted by unusual seasonal adjustment factors. For example, non-seasonally adjusted payroll jobs for August contracted from the prior month, unlike Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf Federal Reserve combats inflation, mortgage rates have increased dramatically, and analysts are evaluating whether high rates will have a material impact on home sales and prices. This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: • Number of New Listings The number of Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf suggest annual wage growth of 9.0% for the four months of February to May 2021. However, due to the impact of COVID-19, a better comparison is to CY 2019, with total wage growth of 7.1%, despite 397,000 Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf but is likely to be front loaded towards the beginning of a month. Hence, the February data likely reflect minimal impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict (February 24 incursion date). Second, the large shelter component generally lags other factors and will Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf diesel fuel prices have significant implications for the prices paid by consumers for final goods and services. For gasoline, the impact of higher prices on consumers is more transparent. Compared to June 2021, the (preliminary) average price is now $1.85 Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf IFO expects further wage gains due to tight labor market conditions in many sectors. PA COVID-19 Job Loss Disproportionately Impacted Young and Female Workers The U.S. Census Bureau recently released the Quarterly Workforce Indicators dataset for 2020 Q3. These Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf for unemployment compensation during the month. New claims remain below the pre-COVID level, but part of that outcome is impacted by the next labor market indicator. (Note: these data are not seasonally adjusted and higher new claims are expected in Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf YOY growth rate for the Philadelphia All Items CPI-U was +1.0%. Since then, $21.0 billion of Economic Impact Payments were injected into the state economy by the federal Consolidated Appropriations Act and American Rescue Plan. A second round Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf that inflation would persist longer than anticipated. This monthly update presents data for factors that drive that outcome, and the impact on national and state economic metrics. For context, the most recent growth rate for the Philadelphia metro CPI-U is Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf 5.6% from the same period in 2020. For comparison, production from January to May 2020, which includes several months impacted by COVID-19 restrictions, recorded annual growth of 5.7%. The (preliminary) production growth rate for 2021 represents a steep Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf Federal Reserve combats inflation, mortgage rates have increased dramatically, and analysts are evaluating whether higher rates will have a material impact on home sales and prices. This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania:  Number of New Listings The number Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf increased households’ disposable income. The IFO estimates that $50.7 billion flowed to state residents in the form of economic impact payments and the extra $600 or $300 weekly unemployment compensation payments. FY 2020-21 lottery sales through March are $742 Hits: 1
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf deflation. Now basics such as food and clothing.  Difficult for businesses to pass on costs. Hits profits. Weak profits impact business purchases.  Research suggests roughly 1/3 of SUT from business. PA consumers reluctant to spend.  Modest wage Hits: 1
MidYear_PublicBriefing_Jan2018.pdf mid-year update for General Fund revenues for FY 2017-18. The presentation will also include a discussion of the impact of federal tax law changes on the state economy and tax revenues and a preliminary revenue outlook for FY 2018- Hits: 1
MER-2015-01.pdf Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michi- gan suggest that the drop in gasoline prices is having a dramatic impact on consumers’ outlook and confidence. The recent surge in consumer sentiment aligns exactly with the drop in gasoline prices. Analysts Hits: 1
MER-2014-12.pdf their share of the mar‐ ket. Research has shown that short term changes in the price of gasoline have little impact on the volume of gasoline con‐ sumed. 2 Instead, consumers will spend any savings on other goods and services. 3 Hits: 1
MER-2014-01.pdf 5.4% 5.5% 5.6% n.a. January 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Impact of Labor Force Participation Rates on the Unemployment Rate According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statis‐ tics’ (BLS Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimates that state residents or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.8 billion has Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data for July 2021, Pennsylvania payroll jobs continue to recover from the impact of the pandemic. For July, the computed year-over-year (YOY) change in payroll jobs is -362,500, compared to Hits: 1
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf 500 companies are paying less than the statutory tax rate to begin with. Business Tax Incentives: Do They Have An Impact?  Incontestably, yes: they cost money.  And they shift the cost of funding govt to everyone else.  More Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_May_2023.pdf 23 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. The presentation will cover recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Wednesday, May 24 Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf percent) over FY 2016-17. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to grow moderately in FY 2017-18,” Knittel said. “Revenue Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2022.pdf an initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. The presentation will review and discuss recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Monday, May 23 Hits: 1
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf Has Broad Implications  Pennsylvania undergoing dramatic transformation.  Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade.  Subtle impacts on economic growth and tax revenues.  Difficult to quantify. Must view long-term trends.  Key factor: Baby Boomers Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf estimates are not reduced for administrative costs, which would likely be significant under this proposal.  The estimates include the impact of changes in behavior and compliance at full implementation for each of the proposed tax rates.  The additional sales Hits: 1
IFO_Letter_to_the_SCC.pdf 2. Develop other performance metrics that do not specifically measure pollution reduction, but could be used to evaluate overall program impact over time. Potential measures might include: • Number of projects funded and the associated value of tax credits awarded for BMPs Hits: 1
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf 19-20  DHS $642m | Criminal Justice $90m | PDE $47m  IFO assumes $279m additional DHS supplemental One-time measures impact FY 20-21 expenditures ($811m)  Managed care shift (+$216m) | JUA Transfer ($200m)  Return of PlanCon costs to General Hits: 1
IFO ppt.pdf year-to-date collections show a significant decline over the prior year. • 100% bonus depreciation is likely having a significant impact on FY 2011-12 collections, but the effect should reverse for FY 2012-13. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 1
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf 2,450 Other Funds ($ millions) *The Statewide Hospital Assessment and the Philadelphia Hospital Assessment need reauthorization in FY 2013-14. Impact of Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA)  Provision allows states to expand their MA program.  Individuals with Hits: 1
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf gains and losses are as follows:  The extra sales tax monies are largely due to the underestimate of the impact from Act 43 of 2017, which required all internet sellers with annual sales above $10,000 in the state to Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf 2022 Residents/Businesses $65.5 $57.5 $3.2 State and Federal UC 31.5 16.9 0.1 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 21.0 0.2 Paycheck Protection Program 20.7 10.0 0.0 Extra SNAP/CTC/Rent Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Phillip Swagel, Director CBO Federal Budget and Economic Hits: 1
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf renters. Economists generally assume that most property taxes are borne by renters and not landlords. 3 The analysis excludes the impact of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) Program. For 2017, homeowners age 65 and older received $117 million in rebates Hits: 1
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf approved by a full committee. The agency usually produces 600 to 800 cost estimates each year. Those estimates include the impact of federal mandates on state, local, and tribal governments. CBO also fulfills thousands of requests for technical assistance as lawmakers Hits: 1
2019-Pub-2.pdf the results from its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Katherine Loughead, Tax Foundation: Modernizing Pennsylvania's Tax Hits: 1
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf rates are minor. The overall trends in business cycles re- main the same. For Pennsylvania, these revisions may have an impact on Gross State Product, but the magnitude is unclear since those data are not currently available. 1 See “Briefing: Results Hits: 1
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf Pennsylvania Gam- ing Control Board may, in the near future, award a license for a second Philadelphia County casino. The impact of these additional casinos on Pennsylvania gaming revenue, and on New Jersey’s struggling industry, is unclear, as some analysts Hits: 1
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf natural gas to a net exporter. In 2012, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned two studies on the economic impacts of further liquefying and exporting natural gas by ship to countries that are not signatories of free-trade agree- ments Hits: 1
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf Pennsylvania. These issues may be criti- cal in sustaining current measures of the housing mar- ket. 1. See “Denied? The Impact of Student Debt on the Ability to Buy a House” by Mishory, J. & O’Sullivan, R at Young Invincibles. Source Hits: 1
2001_hr266.pdf DC plans and options using 20010H0266R2371 - 3 - 1 various demographic and financial scenarios to show the 2 positive and negative impact of each plan option on employers 3 and employees. 4 (2) Employer cost considerations given the current fully 5 funded Hits: 1
Pensions Contribution Plans (2001) Funding Cost-of-living Adjustments (2000) Service Purchase Authorizations for Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Systems (1997) Fiscal Impact of the Early Retirement Incentive for Public School Employees (1996) Feasibility of Early Retirement Incentives in the Public Sector (1995 Hits: 1
Pensions that the Board re-certify the employer contribution rate for the fiscal year commencing July 1, 2002, to reflect the impact of the amendments contained in the legislation; • The State Employees' Retirement Code to permit a former employee of the Shippensburg Hits: 1