Where Did the Workers Go?This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.
Tags: brief, demographics, labor, research |
Labor Market Update - October 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The jobs shortfall expanded in September on a year-over-year (YOY) basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. For September, the computed YOY change in payroll jobs is -384,800, compared to -365,500 for August. Tags: labor, market, update |
Demographic and Labor Market UpdateDirector Matthew Knittel provided a demographics and labor market update to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce. Tags: demographic, labor, market, presentation |
Labor Market Update - September 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market contracted slightly in August on a year-over-year basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. These data reflect the final month of federal unemployment compensation benefits. Tags: labor, market, update |
Labor Market Update- August 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month. Tags: labor, market, update |
Labor Market Update- July 2021The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. Tags: labor, market, update |
Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. Tags: labor, market, update |
Labor Market Update- June 2021The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus. Tags: labor, market, update |
Healthcare and Government Drive PA Job GainsThe latest jobs data from the U.S. Bureau of labor Statistics show that all Pennsylvania job gains for 2024 occurred in the government, healthcare or accommodation-food service sectors. The data reflect the aging demographics of the state and on-going demand for dining out and social assistance services. 04/10/2024 |
2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revised Down 53,400This research brief provides detail on the latest benchmark revision made by the U.S. Bureau of labor Statistics to Pennsylvania payroll jobs. 03/13/2024 |
Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly WagesThis research brief examines how a higher statutory minimum wage could impact lower-wage workers and provides employment and hourly wage estimates for certain lower-wage occupations to illustrate that Pennsylvania effective labor market minimum wage is likely in the range of $10.50 to $11.00 per hour. 01/24/2024 |
Inflation's Impact on Earnings and PensionsThis research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant. 07/31/2023 |
Senate Budget Hearing RequestThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to net migration for Pennsylvania, U3 and U6 unemployment rates, tax burden and labor force participation rates for Pennsylvania and border states, Pennsylvania’s declining workforce and the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit. 04/05/2023 |
Where Did the Workers Go?This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force. 10/25/2022 |
Department of Human Services - Part 3Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3). Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10. 05/04/2022 |
Department of EducationAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education. Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16. The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022. The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022. 04/27/2022 |
Department of AgingAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging. Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1. 04/26/2022 |
Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. 03/08/2022 |
PBB Overview Presentation for DLI and PHMCIFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission is posted on the website. 01/24/2022 |
Department of AgricultureAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture. Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21. 01/20/2022 |
Pennsylvania Historical and Museum CommissionAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commision. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022. 01/20/2022 |
Department of labor and IndustryAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of labor and Industry. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022. 01/20/2022 |
PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage GrowthUsing the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds historic wage gains for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. The brief notes that employee compensation comprises 56% of final sales and firms will likely push most labor costs forward to final consumers, thereby putting upward pressure on prices and inflation. 11/03/2021 |
labor Market Update - October 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The jobs shortfall expanded in September on a year-over-year (YOY) basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. For September, the computed YOY change in payroll jobs is -384,800, compared to -365,500 for August. 10/26/2021 |
Demographic and labor Market UpdateDirector Matthew Knittel provided a demographics and labor market update to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce. 10/06/2021 |
labor Market Update - September 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market contracted slightly in August on a year-over-year basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. These data reflect the final month of federal unemployment compensation benefits. 09/20/2021 |
labor Market Update- August 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month. 08/24/2021 |
labor Market Update- July 2021The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. 07/19/2021 |
labor Market Update - June 23, 2021The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 06/23/2021 |
labor Market Update- June 2021The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus. 06/03/2021 |
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdfmanner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Labor and Industry. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. – Table of Contents Background on Performance-Based Budgeting ...................................................................................... 1 Department of Labor and Industry Overview ........................................................................................ 3 Activity 1: Unemployment Compensation Benefits ................................................................................. 9 Activity 2: Unemployment Compensation Tax Services ........................................................................ 17 Activity 3: Unemployment Hits: 71 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfExecutive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 Section 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................. 3 Section 2: Demographic Outlook .............................................................................................. 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19 Section 4: Revenue Outlook .................................................................................................... 21 Personal Income Tax ..................................................................................................................... 22 Sales and Hits: 67 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3 Demographic Outlook ......................................................................................................... 5 Dependency Ratios ......................................................................................................... 7 Economic Outlook .............................................................................................................. 9 Federal and State Programs ............................................................................................11 Payroll Employment .......................................................................................................12 Labor Force Trends ........................................................................................................14 Income Trends ..............................................................................................................17 Unspent Federal Stimulus ...............................................................................................18 Consumer Spending Patterns ..........................................................................................20 Inflation and Sales Taxes ................................................................................................21 Financial annum. During that time, the state economy partially reverts to pre-COVID patterns as consumers shift spending towards ser- vices, labor force participation rates increase, and asset markets resume long-term trends. For FY 2021-22, General Fund expenditures increase by Hits: 58 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdfthey will increase the hourly wage to $15.00 this year. Minimum Wage | Page 12 The Pennsylvania labor market continues to be tight, with relatively low unemployment. Barring a recession, demographic trends (i.e., a contracting working age cohort between some low- wage workers have not received wage gains that are commensurate with higher productivity due to a labor market that is not fully competitive for low-wage workers. Under these conditions, a higher minimum wage will cause less disruption than Hits: 41 |
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdfTable 4 is new. For the past year, many employers have noted ongoing challenges hiring and retaining staff due to labor market conditions that remain very tight. For Pennsylvania, the latest data (September 2022) show an unemployment rate of 4.1% residents seeking work. 1 The unemployment rate is now at the lowest value on record (first published in 1976). Other labor market data show that the unemployment rate and number unemployed are historically low not only due to strong labor demand Hits: 39 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdfan original release in July 2022 to show data for two more recent months (job openings, jobs, unemployment rates and labor force) or one quarter (employment by age group). Otherwise, the text is largely the same. Many employers have noted ongoing 2019. However, current data show that the unemployment rate and number unemployed are relatively low not only due to strong labor demand, but also because many workers left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research Hits: 39 |
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf2019. However, current data show that the unemployment rate and number unemployed are relatively low not only due to strong labor demand, but also because many workers left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the scope of this issue and identifies Hits: 39 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfleft blank. - Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 Demographic Outlook ............................................................................................................... 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 6 Focus: Labor Force Trends Among Older Adults ................................................................................ 7 Economic Outlook ................................................................................................................... 11 Revenue Outlook ..................................................................................................................... 15 Revenue Trends and Projections .................................................................................................... 16 Personal Income Tax a formal economic forecast, but rather a controlled simulation. They assume that economic growth is consistent with full employment, historical labor productivity gains and inflation expectations. The economic simulation provides a neutral baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability Hits: 39 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdfintentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary............................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Demographic Outlook .......................................................................................................................... 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Impact of Recent Demographic Trends on the State Labor Force........................................................ 9 Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Consumer Inflation ........................................................................................................................ 14 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 15 Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 17 Tax Revenue Trends Hits: 38 |
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfall states. There is significant competition for film and television productions because they are highly mobile and specialized labor and talent necessary for the productions can be imported. While advocates note that tax credits can leverage up to four to five studies. On net, the tax credit retains roughly 1,140 jobs per annum and $68 million of labor income. That outcome assumes that 90 percent of productions are incentivized by the tax credit. If the true figure is half that Hits: 35 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdfnon-resident individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits (sole proprietors, partnerships, S corporation shareholders, self-employed), (3 is proposed law. Assumes that inflation increases by 2.5% for 2021. Source: CPI-U from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Personal Income Tax | Page 18 The analysis also compared SP thresholds to federal poverty levels (FPL). The ratio of Hits: 29 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdfanalysis that will impact the updated estimates: The analysis uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey of employers for 2019. 19 Last year, the analysis used survey data from the U Despite recent disruptions due to COVID-19 and consistent with the prior analysis, this analysis assumes that the labor market in Pennsylvania is characterized by low unemployment in the ab- sence of a higher minimum wage. Therefore, the analysis reflects longer- Hits: 29 |
MER-2014-01.pdfFiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 27 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdfeconomic forecast, but rather a controlled simulation. They assume that economic growth is consistent with full employment, historical labor productivity gains and inflation expectations. The economic simulation provides a neutral baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care Hits: 26 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdfyear. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that Pennsylvania ................................................. 6 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth Rates ........................................................... 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ........................................................................ 8 Net Domestic Migration Trends ................................................................................ 9 PA Labor Force Participation Rates ......................................................................... 10 Fiscal Year to Date Revenues ................................................................................. 11 General Fund Revenue Projections ......................................................................... 12 General Fund Financial Statement Comparison Hits: 23 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdfthe latest data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through October 23, 2020. All forecasts in this section are by the IFO. Pennsylvania Economic Forecast Table 1.1 displays a for all economic variables, with the exception of inflation. The latest employment data for CY 2020 reveal rapid labor market improvement in May, June and July, but much more modest gains in August and September. That outcome is explored further in Hits: 23 |
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf5 Dependency Ratios ....................................................................................................................... 5 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 7 Birth Trends ................................................................................................................................. 8 Decedent Trends .......................................................................................................................... 9 Recent Domestic Migration Trends ............................................................................................... 10 Labor Force Trends and Projections ....................................................................................... 13 Regional and National Population Trends ............................................................................... 17 Pennsylvania County Population Growth ....................................................................................... 17 County Labor Force in 2021 ......................................................................................................... 18 Population Growth Across States.................................................................................................. 19 Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 21 - This page intentionally left blank. - Introduction and Methodology | Page Hits: 22 |
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdfwith a limited discussion regarding whether the infusion of significant federal monies into the state economy, when combined with temporary labor market conditions attributable to the pandemic, is conducive to raising the state minimum wage from its current level of $7 LWA payments for qualifying weeks in August and September 2020). The table below uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry (DLI) to distribute payments from the expanded programs to state residents based on income level. The estimates do Hits: 21 |
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdfMonthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 21 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfonly a portion of the higher consumer spending flows to Pennsylvania manufacturers. Employment falls by 507 jobs and labor earnings decline by $22 million. A fee (10 cents) increases consumer spending on other goods and services as spending on retail one-half of the lower consumer costs flow back to Pennsylvania manufacturers. Employment increases by 260 jobs and labor earnings increase by $10 million. This positive result occurs because a larger portion of the redirected consumer spend- ing remains in the Hits: 20 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdfeconomic recession within the next year, up 10 percentage points from the month prior. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real- Hits: 18 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdfJob Openings Increase in September as State Labor Market Remains Tight The latest poll of economic forecasters projects a 60% probability for a U.S. economic recession within the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because Hits: 18 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdfLabor Force Participation Contracts as Job Openings Remain Plentiful The latest Wall Street Journal poll of economic forecasters projects a 63% probability for a U.S. economic recession within the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because Hits: 18 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf21 to 2025-26 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 21, 2021 Today’s Presentation Four Parts Demographics a contracting labor force Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus 19. Shares are number working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force participation rates reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus Hits: 18 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdfand independent contractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. Economic Outlook | Page 2 The forecast assumes continued recovery from the significant contraction in calendar chain issues and (2) federal monies injected into the national and state economies that have created tem- porary materials and labor shortages in certain sectors of the economy. For some former workers, there remains a reluctance to rejoin the labor force Hits: 17 |
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf2.0% 0.9% 3.7% 2.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Note: Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors chain issues and (2) federal monies injected into the national and state economies that have created tem- porary materials and labor shortages in certain sectors of the economy. For some former workers, there remains a reluctance to rejoin the labor force Hits: 17 |
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 9 Birth Trends .................................................................................................................................. 10 Decedent Trends ........................................................................................................................... 11 Recent Migration Trends ................................................................................................................ 13 Focus: Labor Force Trends Among Older Adults ..................................................................... 15 Regional and National Population Trends............................................................................... 19 Pennsylvania County Population Growth ......................................................................................... 19 Population Growth Across a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and older residents who may require long- Hits: 17 |
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdfPresentation Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Corporate net income, sales tax, personal income, inheritance Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 | wage-price spiral taking hold? Unknown factors (mostly negative) ▪ Stock market correction | S&P 500 down employment only. Excludes self-employed. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Federal Stimulus - Quarterly Pattern January 31, 2022 3 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Hits: 17 |
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf76.4 54.8 3.90 1,398 2.3% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. Data are from the US Department of Labor - Survey of Households. Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of Hits: 17 |
index.cfmDrive PA Job Gains Economics and Other April 10, 2024 The latest jobs data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that all Pennsylvania job gains for 2024 occurred in the government, healthcare or accommodation-food service sectors. The March 13, 2024 This research brief provides detail on the latest benchmark revision made by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to Pennsylvania payroll jobs. ... (Full Report) Pennsylvania Electricity Update Energy March 07, 2024 This report utilizes data from the Hits: 17 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdfcontractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic Outlook | Page 3 Table 1.2 displays the U.S. economic forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and IHS full recovery to levels observed prior to the pandemic. Both forecasts also project a large reduction in the labor force (i.e., those employed or seeking employment) due to mandated business closures. Overall, the IFO forecast assumes a relatively quick recovery Hits: 16 |
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdfPennsylvania March 16, 2023 Good Morning and a Quick Overview I PA Economy: Where are we? ▪ Latest data: jobs, inflation, labor market ▪ Focus: labor market and demographics ▪ Focus: inflation and wages II Statewide Public School Employment, Payroll and Wages ▪ COVID jobs contraction ▪ Real Average Hits: 16 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdffull recovery to levels observed prior to the pandemic. Both forecasts also project a large reduction in the labor force (i.e., those employed or seeking employment) due to mandated business closures. 3 Release dates were as follows: IHS Markit (May contractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic Outlook | Page 3 Overall, the IFO forecast assumes a relatively quick recovery from the significant contraction imposed on the state Hits: 16 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdfEmployment Measures Post Strong Gains in January 2023 This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real- Hits: 16 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdfPennsylvania Employment Gains and Labor Demand Remain Strong Since the release of June CPI-U data last week, many analysts now believe there is a at least a mild recession during the upcoming year. For the next several months, this economic update will use state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy is heading towards recession. Labor market data are useful because they are Hits: 16 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdfFebruary Payroll Jobs Gains Revert to Pre-COVID Average This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real- Hits: 16 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdfyear. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that Independent Fiscal Office – Overview ........................................................................ 1 Independent Fiscal Office – Expenditures ................................................................... 2 Economics – COVID Impact on PA Jobs ...................................................................... 3 Economics – Jobs and Labor Force Participation ......................................................... 4 Economics – Inflation and General Economics ............................................................ 5 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs ...................................................................... 6 Demographics – Pennsylvania Snapshot ..................................................................... 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Hits: 16 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfA. Carville Foster, Jr.Vice ChairmanRetired Legislator Senator Daylin B. LeachDistrict 17 Montgomery County Mr. Christ J. ZervanosRetired Director of Labor RelationsOffice of AdministrationCommonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative Mike TobashDistrict 125 Berks and Schuylkill Counties Mr. David F. Werner, CPARetired PrincipalState and Database (made possible by the Pew Center on the States) via the following link:http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/labor/pension-legislation-database.aspx A report entitled Laura and John Arnold Foundation Policy Perspective, Pension Litigation Summary, Stuart Buck, PH Hits: 16 |
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdfDemographic Are Key. • General Trends: Past Decade and Next Two. • Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others. Economic Implications. • Size of Labor Force and Participation Rates Important. • Income and Jobs Composition Changes. Expenditure and Revenue Implications. • Expenditures Affected by Population Growth in 2016 6 The Next Decade: 2015 to 2025 Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964. • Retirements greatly reduce the potential labor force. • Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. • Will savings be sufficient to support longer life spans? Hits: 15 |
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf Description of the project and how it qualifies as R&D Listing of third party/subcontractor labor costs Prior year expenditures R&D credit calculation review Signature page Ownership information compliance check Applicants must also ap- proximately 70 percent) represents wage/salary/benefit payments to employees who perform re- search. Payments to contract labor comprise approximately 15 percent while spending on supplies and equipment comprise the residual. 8 On average, the ratio of the tentative Hits: 14 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdfPayroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. Annual Growth Rate or Change Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Economic Outlook | Page 2 for 2021 Q4. ▪ Wage and salary growth accelerated in the first half of CY 2022. That outcome reflects the tight labor market and labor force participation rates that have not reverted to pre-pandemic levels. ▪ The Philadelphia CPI-U grew at Hits: 14 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdfPayroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. Annual Growth Rate or Change Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Economic Outlook | Page 2 for 2021 Q4. ▪ Wage and salary growth accelerated in the first half of CY 2022. That outcome reflects the tight labor market and labor force participation rates that have not reverted to pre-pandemic levels. ▪ The Philadelphia CPI-U grew at Hits: 14 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdfhalf project the US economy will enter into a recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real- Hits: 14 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdfNew UI Claims Return to Pre-COVID Levels This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real- Hits: 14 |
MER-2015-02.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 14 |
EPLC-2-19-21.pdfgas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure offsets 19. Shares are number working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force participation rates reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus Hits: 14 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdfdata are unavailable at the state level.) The U6 rate includes the unemployed (U3) plus those marginally attached to the labor force, discouraged, or working part-time for economic reasons. As illustrated by the graph, the gap between the U3 and that the gap between the two series has reverted to pre-pandemic levels as plentiful job openings and a tight labor market result in fewer discouraged workers. As requested, the U6 indicator was added to the IFO’s Monthly Economic Update Hits: 13 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdfThe credit is refundable and is adjusted annually for inflation. 2 1 Consumer Expenditure Survey (2021), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 See: https://cdec.colorado.gov/early-childhood-educator-income-tax-credit. Income Quintile Avg. Income Avg. Expense % Income 13,165 646 4.9 57 Average Expenditures for Cellular Service (2021) Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2021). Calculations by the IFO. Table 1.5 Note: Cellular Expense is assumed to include some equipment charges that Hits: 13 |
RB-2015-04.pdfimpact of that proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the number of workers who would be directly or potentially affected by the proposal. It then uses a monthly survey of households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau on behalf of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides data on the labor force, employment levels, unemployment rates and various other demographic and labor force characteristics Hits: 13 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdfto two-thirds chance of at least a mild recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy might enter into recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real- Hits: 13 |
MER-2014-09.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 13 |
Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdfDemographic and Labor Market Update Lancaster Chamber of Commerce Matthew Knittel, IFO Director October 6, 2021 Pennsylvania Demographics October 6, 2021 1 Age 85 Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. permanent job loss PA Payroll Jobs Still Far Below Pre-Pandemic Level October 6, 2021 3 Hits: 13 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdfassessment of long-term fiscal outlook Method: assume economy reverts to long-term trends Key Themes and Issues Federal Stimulus, Labor Force, Inflation November 15, 2021 1 Today’s Guest Speaker – Emily Maher, NCSL Navigating the Waters: How States are Spending budgets, federal stimulus funds, state and local relations, and economic development topics. She is a staff liaison to NCSL’s Labor and Economic Development Standing Committee and to the Pennsylvania General Assembly. Prior to NCSL, Maher served as a nonpartisan policy Hits: 13 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2024.pdfbecause economic growth rates revert to long- term outcomes that reflect technical factors which change slowly over time (e.g., labor productivity, size of the state labor force). As a result, changes to long-term surplus/deficit projections from one publication year to the next will largely Hits: 13 |
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdft e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 13 |
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdfand used in state are exempt from sales tax (6.25 percent). Prior to March 2002, only the labor charges associated with aircraft MRO were exempt from tax. Since its enactment, there have been multiple attempts to repeal the exemption in Taxed Taxed Yes 5.00 1/ Exempts aircraft above a certain maximum certificated takeoff weight threshold. 2/ Exempts labor if itemized separately on the sales invoice. The table assumes those charges would be itemized separately. 3/ Exempts aircraft used primarily to Hits: 12 |
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf75+. Three Demographic Waves 7/14/2017 7 Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964. Retirements greatly reduce the potential labor force. Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. Generation X or Baby Bust: Born 1965 to 1984. Unusual exits from labor force. Changing attitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004. Wave Hits: 12 |
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdfCPI-U and includes gasoline and household utilities. Groceries are 7.6% of CPI-U. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and AAA (PA average gasoline price). Federal Pandemic Stimulus ($ billions to PA) March 13, 2023 3 2020 2021 2022 to state and local government units and higher education institutions. Childcare includes stabilization funds ($820m) and block grants ($865m). PA Labor Market: Pre vs Post Pandemic March 13, 2023 4 2019 Q4 2022 Q4 Change Number Jobs (000s) Establishment Survey (# jobs Hits: 12 |
MER-2015-03.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 12 |
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdfof Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Westmoreland County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Ms. Paula R. Mandle President ICCR) began to employ shareholder resolutions as a means for engaging companies in dialogue on public policy issues such as labor conditions, environmental and community impacts. Corporate governance rules and the proxy-voting process were used to raise a broad set Hits: 12 |
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdfa material factor in their decisions, other factors were considered, including: geographic proximity to customers, the availability of real estate, labor costs, lease costs, real estate taxes, personal property taxes and sales taxes. Occupants of the Bethlehem KSDZ also benefit from isolation. 18 All KSDZ activity to date has occurred at the Bethlehem site. This implies that other factors (e.g., labor costs, proximity to customers, LERTA, etc.) also drive location decisions. All things being equal, if KSDZ designation solely incentivizes location Hits: 11 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdfof Hourly Wage Rates This analysis primarily utilizes May 2022 data (released April 2023) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS). The OEWS produces employment and wage estimates based on a survey of employment and wages and new full-time/part-time splits from the U.S. February 2024 CPS. Given the strong labor market for many lower-wage occupations, it was assumed that wage growth among the lowest decile (10 th percentile) of Hits: 11 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdfminimum wage sector employment elasticities through an analysis that estimates the impact of a minimum wage increase on the teen labor market. The analysis uses seven different models that incorporate quarterly state-level data from 1979 to 2019. Each model resulted employment elasticities, yielding an inconclusive outcome. The author primarily cred- its this to the relatively small size of the teen labor market. Other factors cited were (1) the added labor costs from the higher minimum wage may be offset by reductions Hits: 11 |
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdfhad projected a recession for the upcoming year which did not occur. That outcome underscores conflicting economic indicators as the labor market remains very resilient, but manufacturing indices and the housing market are much weaker. Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Table 1.2 The deceleration reflects a partial reversion to pre-pandemic growth rates (roughly 4%), with extra strength due to a tight labor market and record low unemployment. 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 2.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2 Hits: 11 |
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdfall work published on website ▪ Office does not make recommendations unless required Presentation has 3 parts ▪ I. Statewide economic trends: labor market, inflation and demographics ▪ II. Industry trends and state comparisons: jobs, wages and taxes ▪ III. State budget: revenue proposals and CPI-U and includes gasoline and household utilities. Groceries are 7.6% of CPI-U. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Energy Information Administration. PA Labor Market: 2020 Q1 vs 2023 Q1 April 19, 2023 4 2020 Hits: 11 |
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdforder to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current over time. The department might limit its focus to actual jobs created and engage with the Department of Labor and Industry to verify all new employment at firms that receive economic development incentives. Currently, the department requires payroll compliance reports for Hits: 11 |
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdfSources: Index and components through 21-22 published by PDE. For later years, SAWW is projected by the Department of Labor and Industry and ECI is projected by IHS Markit with minor adjustments by the IFO. Assumes no change in minimum Sources: Index and components through 21-22 published by PDE. For later years, SAWW is projected by the Department of Labor and Industry and ECI is projected by IHS Markit with minor adjustments by the IFO. Assumes no change in minimum Hits: 11 |
MTR-2015-07.pdfLabor Force Participation Rates Continue Downward Trend In 2014 Labor force participation rates (LFPRs) are often viewed as a measure of the strength of the labor market. The Bureau of Hits: 11 |
MER-2014-12.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 11 |
MER-2013-11.pdfv e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 11 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfyear. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that Materials Included Independent Fiscal Office – Overview ........................................................................ 1 Independent Fiscal Office – Expenditures ................................................................... 2 Executive Budget Financial Statement ........................................................................ 3 Economics – Inflation and Labor Market ..................................................................... 4 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs End ............................................................... 6 Demographic Outlook ................................................................................................ 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Population Gains .......................................................... 8 Demographics – Net Domestic Migration Hits: 11 |
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdfnon-financial firms endured this credit contraction, they also faced a precipitous drop in sales volume. Firms responded by reducing labor costs and postponing investment to preserve profit margins. From their pre-recession peaks to recession trough, data reveal steep declines research and other infrastructure purposes. 11 The modest real growth of national and state economies has had limited impact on labor markets and unemployment rates remain highly elevated compared to historical levels. Prior to the recession, official unemployment rates ranged from Hits: 11 |
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdfEconomic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 11 |
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdfalso offer higher rates for wages paid to residents as a way to encourage companies to hire locally. Non-resident labor may be included at a lower rate or not at all. Pennsylvania offers a broad definition of qualified expense and film programs) are noted below: Louisiana provides an uncapped tax credit equal to 25 percent of qualified in-state labor and 18 percent of qualified production expenses for digital media and software development companies. The credit can be utilized against Hits: 10 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdfThe COVID-19 pandemic had a disparate impact on men and women in the workforce. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes national jobs data by gender and other demographic factors. In February 2021, there was a decline of Much of the reason for the lower unemployment rate for women is that more working-age women have departed the labor force since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and are not currently seeking employment. Since February 2020, the labor Hits: 10 |
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf68 54 -450 100 Philadelphia CPI-U 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. CY 2020 Lost Labor Income More Than Offset October 29, 2020 2 Estimate Notes Lost Labor Income ($ billions) Wages-Salaries -$20.8 6% reduction Hits: 10 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdfincrease $1.00 per hour in 2020 and 2021. Without a phase- in, the proposal would cause significant labor market disruptions. The three-year phase- in allows firms to adjust resources and facilitates passing costs forward to final con- sumers as their hiring and pricing policies. The phase-in allows markets to adjust and allows firms to push higher labor costs forward into the final prices that consumers pay. Due to the explicit phase-in, there is a smaller projected employment contraction Hits: 10 |
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdfThe deceleration reflects a partial reversion to pre-pandemic growth rates (roughly 4%), with extra strength due to a tight labor market and record low unemployment. 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 2.1% 1.6% 1.2% 2 Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1.2 Pennsylvania Forecasts: Annual Growth or Change IFO IHS Markit Economic Outlook | Page 3 For 2022 Hits: 10 |
MTR-2016-10.pdftheir earnings, and changes in annual pay can affect consumer confidence. Employers are more likely to increase wages when the labor market is competitive, but less likely to do so if there is slack. Therefore, an acceleration or slowing of total 2012), followed by weak growth in 2013 (1.6%). The weak growth was likely a result of slack in the labor market, as some discouraged workers re-entered the labor force and sought employment. For 2014 and 2015, improving economic conditions Hits: 10 |
MER-2015-06.pdfReport Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10-Year Treasury Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2015-04.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2015-01.pdfReport Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10-Year Treasury Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2014-11.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2014-10.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2014-08.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2014-07.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2014-06.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2014-05.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2014-04.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2014-03.pdfFiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2014-02.pdfFiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
MER-2013-12.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10-Year Treasury Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdfgas, minimum wage March 4, 2022 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure offsets Age 65-79 2019 Q2 22.4% 2021 Q2 20.2% Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau. PA Labor Force Participation Rates March 4, 2022 6 PA Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1984 59 60 61 62 63 Hits: 10 |
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfc t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf82.6 51.7 3.74 1,412 2.2% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 441 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 10 |
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf8% Note: Net Job Gains for payroll employment only. Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Trends May 23, 2022 4 Annual Growth 406 558 235 195 210 201 Unemployment Rate 7.3% 6.7% 6.1% 5.5% 5.1% 4.8% Labor Force Part. Rate 61.9% 61.8% 61.3% 61.0% 61.1% 61.4% Note: All growth rates are Hits: 9 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdfbillion of federal monies injected into state Four key questions ▪ What happens when federal monies are removed? ▪ Is there a labor shortage? ▪ Is the uptick in inflation transitory? ▪ Is there a stock market and/or housing market bubble? Many unusual factors independent contractors. Home Price Index for 2021 is year-over-year gain for Q1 only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FHFA. Forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Trends May 26, 2021 4 Annual Growth Hits: 9 |
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdfDec.2014 The Economic and Budget Outlook 2 Demographic Outlook Age Distribution Life Expectancy and Median Age Age of Workforce Labor Force Participation Rates Components of Population Change All Data from Pennsylvania State Data Center 3.Dec.2014 3 3.Dec Pennsylvania State Data Center. half the rate of increase 4 Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964. • Retirements reduce the potential labor force. • Oldest reach typical retirement age (65) in 2011. • Many now continue to work past age 65. Generation X or Hits: 9 |
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdfand next two. o Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others. o Very long term: trends through 2040. Economic Implications o Labor Force, Income and Jobs Composition, Growth. Budget Implications o Persistent tax base erosion due to demographics. 12.June.2014 2 Negative in 2013 or 2014 US PA Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964 o Retirements greatly reduce the potential labor force. o Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. o Will savings be sufficient to support longer life Hits: 9 |
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdfto $12.00 Presentation for the PA Economy League Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office May 1, 2019 The Pennsylvania Labor Market May 1, 2019 1 Annual Growth Rate, Change or Level 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Net Jobs Created (000s 17.3 Note: All Other Healthcare includes ambulatory care, hospitals and nursing/residential care facilities. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment. The Minimum Wage Proposal Increase minimum wage from $7.25 to $12.00/hr (+65 Hits: 9 |
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf Executive Summary | Crucial Assumptions | Recession Risk Demographics: a contracting workforce Economics: modest 2018 gains from TCJA, strong labor market Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1 supplemental appropriation. Net revenues deduct refunds and include lapses. Assumes future one-time measures are not utilized. Three Critical Assumptions Labor force expands despite decline in 20-64 year olds. Labor force participation rates must increase. Will there be Hits: 9 |
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfYFC youth and this report includes outcome measures for these pro- grams. DHS continues to work with the Department of Labor and Industry to collect and track employment Department of Human Services Overview | Page 8 outcomes related to various activities, including number of days postpartum a mother could receive follow up care. Postpartum visits monitor the mother’s recovery from pregnancy, labor and delivery in a proper manner and ensure the mother and child are doing well. Well child visits for infants Hits: 9 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdfaddition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that Snapshot .................................................................................................... 8 Most PA Job Gains to Age 55+ ................................................................................................................. 9 Net Domestic Migration Trends ............................................................................................................ 10 PA Demographic Trends Cause Tight Labor Market ...................................................................... 11 General Fund Financial Statement Comparison .............................................................................. 12 FY 2019-20 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 13 FY 2020-21 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 14 Hits: 9 |
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfA u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfEconomic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdfReport A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf73.8 53.1 3.31 1,498 1.6% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 515 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf72.9 50.7 3.31 1,426 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 498 1.6% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf82.7 49.5 3.45 1,416 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 426 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf7 10 49.5 3.46 1,416 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 412 2.2% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf72.3 49.8 3.44 1,379 1.4% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 441 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf73.2 49.7 3.54 1,362 1.7% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 407 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf79.3 53.5 3.73 1,310 1.7% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 379 1.4% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National Hits: 9 |
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdfin Michigan,” Connect Michigan (March 2013). Section 4: Economic Analysis | Page 12 percent of total project cost if labor is included) has a significant impact on new investment in broadband infrastructure. The incentive impact of the state tax credit is also the cost of a mobile broadband project is related to equipment. 15 The remaining costs are attributable to labor and do not qualify for the tax credit. Line 5 Total cost of the project (i.e., qualified equipment and labor). Line Hits: 8 |
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdfTo compare Pennsylvania to other states, Table 2.5 uses business data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for three specific subsectors that receive significant KIZ awards: computer system design and related services (NAIC 5415), software publishers (5112) and 1% 4.6% United States 7.8% 17.9% 4.1% 5.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Calculations by IFO. Table 2.5 Average Growth in Number of Business Establishments: 2014 to Hits: 8 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdfand Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts May 26, 2020 2 February 29 First 184.1 5.1 Philadelphia CPI-U 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic May 26, 2020 4 Annual Hits: 8 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdfthe latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The trends reveal the recent mod- eration in the Pennsylvania labor market as the pace of net new jobs creation fell from 69,600 (annualized rate) in 2018 Q1 to 50,800 (preliminary Hits: 8 |
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdfGains (000s) 28 -849 -506 -440 Philadelphia CPI-U 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% -- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Net Job Gains using quarterly data represent annualized amount and in 2020 Q4 November 18, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 Hits: 8 |
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfConstruction Cost Index is published by the Engineering News-Record. The index is composed of the 20-city average of labor rates and certain construction material prices (e.g., structural steel, Portland cement, lumber). ▪ The project cost over budget metric compares 1.0 million). ▪ In FY 2020-21, the motor voter program cost estimate is $548,000 and includes facility and labor costs. 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Workload (in thousands) Driver licenses issued/renewed Hits: 8 |
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdfGains (000s) 28 -849 -505 -435 Philadelphia CPI-U 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% -- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Net Job Gains using quarterly data represent annualized amount and in 2020 Q4 December 9, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 Hits: 8 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdfand Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts June 22, 2020 2 February 29 First 184.1 5.1 Philadelphia CPI-U 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic June 22, 2020 4 Annual Hits: 8 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdfthe latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The trends reveal the recent mod- eration in the Pennsylvania labor market as the pace of net new jobs creation fell from 69,600 (annualized rate) in 2018 Q1 to 50,800 (preliminary Hits: 8 |
MSC_March_31_2021.pdfthrough December 2024 (much is restricted) IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong Down 441k jobs in February from prior year Positives 5.7% -14.5% 5.7% 5.4% 6.0% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 29 -896 -517 -468 -450 Change Labor Force (000s) 51 -96 -160 -231 -229 Home Values 5.1% 4.8% 8.3% 10.8% --- Notes: Real GDP Hits: 8 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdfPennsylvania March Jobs Growth Flat The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released March employment data for Pennsylvania. Year-over-year total non-farm employment growth was essentially flat (0 the March employment data do not reflect the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data collection date (the week of March 12) occurred prior to enactment of most statewide measures to combat the Hits: 8 |
Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdfPennsylvania Payroll Jobs Record Strong Gains in June This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. Based on the week, then the equivalent wage rate doubles. The IFO projects that many traditional UC recipients will attempt to rejoin the labor force during the next month while a wider selection of jobs remain available and in order to lock in any Hits: 8 |
Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdfJobs Continue to Recover, but Significant Shortfall Remains This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data two weeks. In last month’s update, the IFO speculated that many traditional UC recipients would attempt to rejoin the labor force, but there would only be modest change for PUA recipients due to their tenuous connection to the labor force Hits: 8 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdfaddition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most 9% Corporate Domestic Profits 6.4% -0.5% -2.8% 5.6% 11.7% 14.4% 1.9% 3.6% Labor Market Jobs Created (millions) 2.56 2.88 2.53 2.27 2.33 0.74 -0.38 2.46 Hits: 8 |
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdfthe Treasury assumes that 82 percent of the tax is borne by capital owners and 18 percent is borne by labor. 4 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assumes that 75 percent of the tax is borne by capital owners and 25 percent is borne by labor. 5 The Joint Committee on Taxation uses the same assumption as the CBO. 6 The Tax Policy Center Hits: 8 |
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdfforecast issued in that month. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO or IHS Markit. Pennsylvania Quarterly Economic Trends January 31, 2023 4 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate 2% 4.0% Number Unemployed (000s) 353 327 288 270 255 Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 195 212 209 213 196 Labor Force Part. Rate 61.0% 61.1% 61.6% 61.7% 61.7% Note: All growth rates relative to same Hits: 8 |
2002_dbdc_report.pdfof Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Fayette County, Westmoreland County Executive Director: Anthony State and school employees in PA. May impede recruitment of youn- ger, mobile employees. Benefit is fully portable. May increase labor costs due to increased employee turnover. Recruitment of younger, mo- bile employees may be facilitated. Benefit Risk Benefit is fixed Hits: 8 |
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdfotherwise, all data in this section are from the U.S. Energy Information Administra- tion (EIA), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry (DLI) or Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP). Industry Inputs, Output and Capacity Utilization Table 5.1 presents Hits: 7 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdfboth permanent and temporary) Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating Evidence in labor market and consumer sales May 20, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections May 20, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 or forecasts. Corporate profits are non-financial, domestic profits. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Economic Forecast vs Long-Run Growth May 20, 2019 3 2013-18 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP 1 Hits: 7 |
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdfworkers, opponents assert that higher business costs will reduce employment, especially for younger workers or those attempting to enter the labor market. To examine how a higher minimum wage might impact workers, this research brief uses the latest data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). These state-level data are based on a comprehensive survey of firms and provide hourly wage distributions (10 th Hits: 7 |
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdfThe COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on state employment and labor force participation rates (i.e., the share of residents working or actively seeking employment). For Pennsylvania, data for December 2021 show that payroll employment fell by 280,000 (-4.6%) compared to December 2019 and labor force participation rates are the lowest since 1986. News articles point to early retirements as a significant factor that drives Hits: 7 |
MSC_March_31_2022.pdfyear budget ▪ Proposed for FY 22-23: Minimum wage increase | corporate tax changes Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 | wage-price spiral taking hold? Natural gas trends ▪ National and regional prices remain high | impact fee 15 in 2028 (CPI adjustment thereafter) ▪ Tipped cash wage increased to regular minimum wage Preliminary Analysis ▪ Strong wage growth | smaller labor force than pre-Covid ▪ Fewer workers impacted compared to prior analyses ▪ ~640,000 non-tipped workers make < $12/hr ▪ Smaller Hits: 7 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdfPhiladelphia CPI-U Increases 3.5%, Core CPI-U up 5.0% On May 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data for metro regions. For April, the All Items CPI-U for the Philadelphia metro region increased of time. March Increase in Northeast Job Openings Rate Largest on Record On May 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data from the monthly job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS). The job openings rate (number of Hits: 7 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdfNational Wage Gains Surge On May 28, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released monthly data on U.S. personal income (NIPA Table 2.6). For March and April (latest two months scale. Data for May will be released on June 25 and the IFO expects further wage gains due to tight labor market conditions in many sectors. PA COVID-19 Job Loss Disproportionately Impacted Young and Female Workers The U.S. Census Hits: 7 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdfPA Real Average Hourly Earnings Contract, but Some Workers Gain In January 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released December employment and average hourly earnings data for all states. The latest data reveal dramatically different outcomes for all months. The near-term outlook for real average hourly earnings will depend on whether residents return to the labor force (the Pennsylvania labor force participation rate for December (59.8%, non-seasonally adjusted) was the lowest rate for that Hits: 7 |
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdfMarkit forecast from May 2023. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO or IHS Markit. Pennsylvania Quarterly Economic Trends May 24, 2023 5 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate 3% 4.1% Number Unemployed (000s) 279 279 282 280 268 Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 249 224 189 172 147 Labor Force Part. Rate 61.6% 61.7% 61.7% 61.9% 62.0% Note: All growth rates relative to same Hits: 7 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdfMarkit forecast from May 2023. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO or IHS Markit. Pennsylvania Quarterly Economic Trends May 24, 2023 5 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate 3% 4.1% Number Unemployed (000s) 279 279 282 280 268 Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 249 224 189 172 147 Labor Force Part. Rate 61.6% 61.7% 61.7% 61.9% 62.0% Note: All growth rates relative to same Hits: 7 |
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf701 13,003 13,090 301 87 0.2% 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. PA Labor Force Contraction Continues November 16, 2021 3 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% -300,000 -200,000 -100,000 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Changein PA Labor Force from Jan 2020 Unemployment Rate $600/wk ends $300/wkends Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CTC starts Hits: 7 |
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdftax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics and economy Labor market still robust | consumers drive growth Auto loan delinquencies at all time high | mortgage refis double State budget 45.4 45.7 Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Demographics Cause Tight Labor Market February 28, 2020 6 Number of Residents (000s) 2015 2016 Hits: 7 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdfand (3) declining corporate profits. However, many underlying economic fundamentals remain solid. For Pennsylvania, positive fundamentals include: A stable labor market. For 2015, the Pennsylvania economy generated 54,800 additional payroll jobs, up from 45,800 in 2014. Relative Lottery Fund and the Oil and Gas Lease Fund. Service populations that expand at a faster pace than the labor force that supports the tax base. Healthcare inflation that outpaces general inflation and many sources of revenue. The report Hits: 7 |
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdfrevised for 2017 and 2018. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 28, 2020 2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP Profits for non-financial firms only. Includes S corporations. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 28, 2020 3 2018 Hits: 7 |
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdfpreliminary and will be adjusted in March 2020. Excludes independent contractors, self-employed and military. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (not seasonally adjusted). Employment Gains and Losses by Sector Table 2B: New York Share of Sector preliminary and will be adjusted in March 2020. Excludes independent contractors, self-employed and military. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (not seasonally adjusted). March 6, 2020 Page 8 Share of Sector 2017 2018 2019 Jobs Mining Hits: 6 |
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdfIFO Director November 15, 2021 Outlook Released November 15, 2022 Demographics ▪ Working age cohort (age 20-64) continues to contract ▪ Labor force participation rates do not recover from COVID decline Economics ▪ Forecast assumes reversion to “normal” economic growth Revenues ▪ Inflation boosts 960 -36 -4 -0.3% 0.0% Note: Number in thousands. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. PA Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) Declines and Stabilizes January 24, 2023 4 LFPR down ~1.5 ppts ~120,000 workers ~50% Hits: 6 |
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf7.9% 4.4% 3.5% 2.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecast Note: Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors 57% in 2023 Q4. For 2023, Pennsylvania home sales were the lowest since 1990 (earliest data point). The state labor market also remains tight by historical standards. For April 2024, YOY payroll jobs grew by 81,000 and the unemployment Hits: 6 |
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf7.9% 4.4% 3.3% 2.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecast Note: Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors 57% in 2023 Q4. For 2023, Pennsylvania home sales were the lowest since 1990 (earliest data point). The state labor market also remains tight by historical standards. For April 2024, YOY payroll jobs grew by 81,000 jobs and the Hits: 6 |
RB-2017-5.pdfgrowth. Pennsylvania has a relatively low rank for payroll employment (45 th ) because there is very modest growth of the labor force due to demographic trends. Pennsylvania ranks higher for GDP (29 th ) and personal income (37 th ) because retirees and are from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for payroll employment are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6 For the economic metrics, the data span from calendar year 2010 to 2015, as opposed to a fiscal Hits: 6 |
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdfboth permanent and temporary) Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating Evidence in labor and housing markets June 11, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections June 11, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 or forecasts. Corporate profits are non-financial, domestic profits. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Economic Forecast vs Long-Run Growth June 11, 2019 3 2013-18 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP 1 Hits: 6 |
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdfPA 2.1% PA 2.5% 2011-16 PA 1.8% PA Seniors Working More May 24, 2017 13 All Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Year Groups 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 2001 65.0% 85.2% 83 8% 20.1% Excludes Disabled 25.5% Change 2001-2016 -1.2% -1.1% +5.0% +8.1% Note: The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the share of the age group that is part of the labor force. The labor Hits: 6 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdfPBB Overview and Agency Highlights Department of Labor & Industry PA Historical and Museum Commission Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2022 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 4 Agencies ▪ Dept. of Labor & Industry (DLI) | PA Historical & Museum Commission (PHMC) ▪ PA Dept. of Aging (PDA) | Dept. of Human Services (DHS, Part 3) ▪ PA Hits: 6 |
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdfWhere are we? How did we get here? Demographic Outlook. Suggests economic and budgetary challenges. Economic Outlook. Solid labor market, but consumption tepid. Budget Outlook. Revenue and expenditures. Pensions. Gaming. General Fund Balance Sheet Growth Rates 13-14 Years. Retirement wave accelerates. Baby Boom more pronounced in PA than US. Mid-Term: 5 - 10 Years. Labor force may contract. Tax burden falls on smaller cohort. Long-Term: 10+ Years. Deaths exceed births. Heavily Hits: 6 |
MTR-2017-08.pdfrates were in Nebraska (3.1) and South Dakota (3.5). The opioid crisis impacts the economy by shrinking the labor force. A recent study by Goldman Sachs finds that the crisis may be connected to declining prime-age labor force participation, especially for men. 3 Other research finds that nearly one-half of workers not in the labor force Hits: 6 |
MTR-2016-11.pdfproduction from a well. A new well can produce at a high level for at least two years with minimal labor. Once operators have built up an inventory of wells, they can manage production levels by increasing or decreasing output from employment data are necessary to confirm that outcome. November 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Provided by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Labor and Industry. 2 Released on November 30, 2016. 3 Natural Gas Intelligence, “Oil/Gas Analysts Chart Industry’s ‘Bumpy’ Recovery Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdfPhiladelphia CPI-U Growth Decelerates in August On September 14, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released CPI-U data for August. The data for the Philadelphia metro region show year-over-year inflation of in Philadelphia, 4.8% in Pittsburgh, 16.1% in Allentown and 11.7% in Harrisburg. For August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded YOY growth in Rent of Residence of 2.6% for the Philadelphia metro region, revealing a growing divergence Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdfsales contraction will also reverberate through the state economy in less obvious ways, and generally reduce longer-term growth: ▪ Less labor mobility. Workers may defer relocation and better pay to retain a low-rate mortgage. ▪ First-time home buyers priced out 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdfProducer and Consumer Inflation Accelerate in October This week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released October data for the Producer Price Index (PPI, final demand) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Based on 6%, which is the strongest rate since the current series was published in 2010. In addition to higher prices for labor, energy and raw materials, analysts point to transportation bottlenecks, labor shortages and shortages of critical inputs as key factors that Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdfDriven by Energy Note: Year-over-year growth rates. OER is Owner's Equivalent Rent. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% All Items All Items Less Energy Rent Monthly Data Feb-23 Mar-23 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdfstimulus payment. Pennsylvania Unemployment Rate Declines to 13.0 Percent in June On July 17, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June state employment/unemployment report. The percent of Pennsylvania’s labor force that is unemployed (seasonally adjusted) fell to 13.0% from 13.4% a month earlier, due partly to a Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdfto Overall Inflation Note: Year-over-year growth rates. OER is Owner's Equivalent Rent. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% All Items OER Rent Monthly Data Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun- 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdfRecovers Half of Jobs Lost From April Low, but Employment Growth Decelerates On August 21, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July state employment report. The data reveal that by July, nearly one-half (529,100, not seasonally from 13.2% in June to 13.7% in July, due in part to almost 88,000 Pennsylvanians reentering the labor force. The pace of the jobs recovery was generally consistent across sectors. For example, the retail (-127,000 loss, 51% Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdfof recession is how entrenched inflation has become in the economy and expectations. To provide insight, economists look to the labor market and wage growth. For Pennsylvania, data suggest that inflation is now affecting year-over-year (YOY) wage growth (see latest three quarters of data show that average wages are growing at a rate similar to the CPI-U. Because labor costs comprise a large portion of total costs across all sectors, this outcome makes it more likely that a slowdown Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdfis expected to continue until at least 2024, which should enhance future productivity gains. Another key growth metric is the labor force participation rate (LFPR). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in this rate from 63.3% in February 2020 to 61.5% in March 2021. For Hits: 6 |
Labor_Market_Update_October_2021.pdftraditional UC recipients received $400 per week on average. Many individuals who previously received UC have now likely exited the labor force after benefits expired. From August to September, the non-seasonally adjusted data show that the number of residents classified as unemployed (but looking for work) declined by 78,000 while the overall labor force participation rate declined from 61.5% to 61.0% despite strong demand for workers. Labor Market Update October 2021 Hits: 6 |
Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdfPennsylvania Job Gains Remain in Holding Pattern This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. For openings at an all-time high and quit rates at the highest level since 2000. Both factors reflect a tight labor market and strong demand for workers, which does not align with ongoing job loss or the large number of UC Hits: 6 |
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdfSources: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey), PA Department of Education, PA Department of Revenue, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Consumer Expenditure Survey) and Internal Revenue Service. All computations by the IFO. U.S. Age 65+ Sources of Income Source: U.S. Social Security Administration. More PA Seniors Are Working Too Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 11 PA Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group Year All Groups 20-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 1997 64 Hits: 6 |
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdfgrants, abatements November 14, 2019 3 Guest Presentations Guest presentations posted separately November 14, 2019 4 Four Critical Assumptions PA Labor force expands despite decline in 20-64 year olds Labor force participation rates must continue to increase Moderate growth of personnel cost drivers after FY 19-20 Personnel costs Hits: 6 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdfUniversity. November 15, 2022 2 Four Parts and Main Themes Demographics ▪ Working age cohort (age 20-64) continues to contract ▪ Labor force participation rates must increase rapidly to facilitate jobs creation Economics ▪ Simulation assumes no recession, but no growth for CY 001 12,965 12,960 -36 -4 -0.3% 0.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. PA Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) Declines November 15, 2022 6 LFPR down ~1.5 ppts ~120,000 workers ~50% demographics ~50% Hits: 6 |
EPLC_April_2024.pdfPolicy & Leadership Center Budget Cycle and IFO’s Role Slide 3 Overview and Notes Demographics and Economics • Demographics & impact on labor force participation rates • Economic projections and recent trends Executive Budget Proposal & Long-Term Implications State General Fund (GF) Revenues • FY usual LFPR cited, but denominator includes all non-institutionalized residents age 16+, including residents age 75+ unlikely to be in labor market in large numbers • As PA experiences rapid growth in the 75+ population, an adjusted Total LFPR of age 16 Hits: 6 |
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf2020, economy shuts down. What changed? Some data that track same metric tell different stories (e.g., jobs) Rapid PA labor market slowdown A pause in Corporate Profits What do you expect this year? Inflation sticks around (Philly CPI-U) “We Inflation Inflated assets: homes and stocks Real Earnings Feb 2024 Economic Summit Slide 6 Was there a permanent exodus from Labor Force? (No.) Most impacts permanent, but some deflation (durable goods, energy) Inflation creates winners and losers How about wage earners Hits: 6 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfquestions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most over-year annual rates. Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IHS Economics. (4) Preliminary data show a significant contraction of the PA economy in the first quarter Hits: 6 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfquestions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most over-year annual rates. Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IHS Economics. (4) Preliminary data show a significant contraction of the PA economy in the first quarter Hits: 6 |
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf4.1. Based on that profile, 4.4 percent of qualified spending flows to non-residents in the form of labor com- pensation, 1.4 percent to Pennsylvania residents as wages and 94.2 percent to goods and services providers (e Impact 16 Total Output or Spending 1 $13.8 $41.0 17 Gross Domestic Product $7.1 $22.5 18 Labor Earnings $4.1 $13.0 19 Full-Time Equivalent 53 203 20 Tax Revenues 2 $1.2 $2.8 Return Hits: 5 |
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdfSince the start of the pandemic, U.S. labor force participation rates (share of residents working or actively seeking work) have declined significantly for young workers. Relative to January 44 (-0.8 ppts), age 45 to 54 (-0.5 ppts). Due to insufficient data, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish similar monthly metrics by age group for states, and average annual data are available only several Hits: 5 |
RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdfeconomic outcomes that directly impacted the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers. Inflation surged to a four-decade high while a labor shortage and strong demand pushed up worker wages, especially for lower-wage (e.g., food service) and certain healthcare workers hourly earnings and (2) the Philadelphia metro region employment cost index (ECI) for wages and salaries (excludes benefits). These two labor compensation metrics are for private sector workers only and pertain to the third quarter of the calendar year. The two Hits: 5 |
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdfU.S. Census Bureau. Updated for 2020 Decennial Census. Forecast by IFO. See “2021 Demographic Outlook” Nov. 2021. Economy: PA Labor Force Contraction Continues January 19, 2022 3 Labor Force # Employed + # Unemployed Unemployment Rate # Unemployed / Labor Force Unemployed Actively looked for work in past 4 weeks and available to Hits: 5 |
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation • Solid Labor Market • Some Wage Weakness Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 Real GDP 2.3% 1.9% n.a. n.a. Wages Hits: 5 |
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdfNovember 19, 2018 1 Three Quick Updates Demographic projections and outlook (3 slides) Job creation and the PA labor force (3) FY 2019-20: a difficult budget year ahead (5) All material from IFO’s Economic and Budget 22.6 26.9 25.1 Total Net Jobs 50.0 62.9 66.9 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Excludes self-employed. 2018 forecast by IFO. PA Jobs Creation Since 2006 November 19, 2018 7 Hits: 5 |
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf100.0% 100.0% Note: Professional-Business includes Professional Services, Management and Administrative-Waste Management. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Excludes self-employed individuals. August.08.2018 15 Service Sector Jobs Dominate Con’t Net PA 15 -69 Wholesale-Retail 28 -47 1 Manufacturing -212 -99 1 TOTAL 389 -178 326 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Series. Excludes self-employed individuals. August.08.2018 16 U.S. Seniors Working More Avg. Annual Growth Hits: 5 |
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdfof +4.2%. Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy. Corporate base expansion enhances revenues. Tight labor market sustains wage growth. Inflation accelerates above 2%. Helps pricing power. June.12.2018 2 Optimistic Revenue Outlook Wage recovers. Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months. Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. Strong Labor Market = Income Gains June.12.2018 3 PA Consumer Income vs. Spending 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% Hits: 5 |
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdfFY 17-18 is calendar year 2017. Licensing 3 Source: PA Department of Health. 2 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, includes mental health (MH)/substance abuse center employees for NAICS code 621420 - outpatient and NAICS code 623220 - residential. 5 1 and 4, 2020. 6 Source: Estimated by U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Department of Labor, Total Lost Productivity Due to Opioid Use (October 2022). 2 Data on persons served includes all SCA funded prevention services Hits: 5 |
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdfof state. Note: Billions of dollars. PPP includes both pass-through entities and C corporations. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Treasury Department, Small Business Administration. Growth of PA Cash Income Peaks in 2020 Despite COVID June 17, 2021 2021 assumes a no-pandemic scenario for 2020 and normal seasonal hiring. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Impact of Business Closures vs. One Year Later June 17, 2021 6 YOY Change (000s) YOY Growth Apr 20 Hits: 5 |
MTR-2017-05.pdfin credit card, auto and student loan debt more than offset a slight decline in mortgage debt. Second, the PA labor market could be weak, generating few jobs and minor gains in take home pay. However, data for January to April 2017 suggest a strong labor market that created 63,000 net new jobs (annualized rate), compared to 52,200 for CY 2016. Moreover, withholding tax Hits: 5 |
MTR-2016-09.pdfthe average price per county weighted by sales per county. Average Milk Prices per Gallon 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Bloomberg, “Grocery Prices are Plunging,” September 27, 2016. 3 WSJ, “Food Price Deflation Cheers Consumers, Hurts Farmers, Grocers 29, 2016. 4 Global Dairy Market Outlook, “Global Markets see August Rally,” August 29, 2016. 5 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey. $3.00 $3.20 $3.40 $3.60 $3.80 $4.00 $4.20 Q1 Q2 Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdfSource: PA Department of Revenue. 13. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force. The U6 rate includes the U3 unemployed plus those marginally attached to the labor force, discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons. 17. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdfentry data. Source: Pennsylvania Turnpike. 12. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force. The U6 rate includes the U3 unemployed plus those marginally attached to the labor force, discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons. 16. Year-over-year growth rate, domestic profits only Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdfTwo-Thirds of PA CPI-U Growth Due to Transportation and Shelter The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released Philadelphia CPI-U data for February 2022. The data show that the All Items CPI increased continue to accelerate in the near term. Third, food prices are expected to continue recent strong gains due to higher labor and input (e.g., fertilizer) costs and supply chain disruptions. Monthly Economic Update March 2022 Contributions to Philadelphia CPI-U Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdfand private sector declined relative to the prior year. For November 2020, recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal that local public school districts employed 268,800 staff, a decline of 5.5% (-15,700 jobs, not Appliances and Used Cars Increase Dramatically The December Philadelphia Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased 1.1% over the prior year (not seasonally adjusted) continuing a trend of modest year-over-year price Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdfCPI-U Increases 5.4%; Non-Housing CPI-U up 6.6% On August 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the U.S. city average consumer price index (CPI-U) data for July. For All Items, the index growth across the six consumer debt categories, driven by higher prices and volume. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Philadelphia-area prices for new cars increased 18.7%, and used cars increased 45.3% from June 2020. For Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 5 |
Labor_Market_Update_Sept_2021.pdfin August as Federal UC Benefits Neared Expiration This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data expiration of extra federal UC benefits, the monthly data will provide important insights into the state of the Pennsylvania economy. Labor Market Update September 2021 June July August June July August Total Payroll Employment -389.1 -358.3 -362.0 28 Hits: 5 |
Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdfof Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. For 650 (traditional) per week. The IFO will update these data once the May jobs figures are released later this month. Labor Market Update June 2021 Feb Mar Apr Feb Mar Apr Total Employment -443.5 -431.5 -444.5 42.8 Hits: 5 |
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast. General weakness. All forecasts underperform. An exception: PA labor market posts solid gains. Recent U.S. data confirm weak PA trends: 2017 Q1 Real GDP +0.7% growth 46.7 52.2 55.7 Note: Professional Services includes the Management and Administrative sectors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4 02.May.2017 Recent Economic Trends 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 PA Real Hits: 5 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdfyear. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that 3% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% Corp Domestic Profits -3.5% -1.1% 2.3% 9.3% 6.6% -- -- -- -- -- Labor Market Net Jobs Growth 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% Hits: 5 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2024_Final.pdfPayroll Jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. PA Recent Economic Trends Slide 4 Economic and Budget Outlook 2023.4 2024.1 2024 3.6% -0.1% 3.0% -- 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 7.30 6.75 7.00 6.51 6.53 Labor Market Unemployment Rate 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% -- Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 85 72 90 103 -- Change Hits: 5 |
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf3.9% 4.0% 2.5% Source: Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 7 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 1.5% 1.7% 0.0% Source: Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 8 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 Hits: 5 |
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf8 Net Economic and Revenue Impact 1 9 Output or Spending $52.1 10 Gross Domestic Product $22.7 11 Labor Earnings $20.9 12 Full-Time Equivalent Jobs 320 13 Tax Revenues 2 $1.7 Return on Investment 14 Gross equal impact on both taxes in terms of new revenue. In order for the tax credit to be self-financed: ▪ Labor earnings would need to increase by $500,000 / 3.07% = $16.3 million if all earnings were subject to Pennsylvania Hits: 4 |
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdfCreated 1,140 full-time equivalents (FTEs) ▪ Average Wage for Retained Jobs $52,000 Recommendations ▪ Incentivize the use of resident labor for mid-tier productions. ▪ Consider separate credit pools for film, television and small independent productions. ▪ Consider a temporary higher credit to eliminate tax credit brokers and facilitators. ▪ Remunerate KIZ coordinators with state funds. ▪ DCED should collaborate with the Department of Labor and Industry to track firms after they age out of the program. ▪ Revisit the statutory program deadlines to facilitate the Hits: 4 |
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf2021-22 to 3.5 percent in FY 2024-25. The SAWW, which is projected by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, increases from 3.3 to 3.7. The annual SAWW increase is calculated using the growth rate between the index for each school district weighted by property tax collections. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsyl- vania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Weighted index calculated by the IFO. Act 1 Exceptions Independent Fiscal Office February 2020 4 Hits: 4 |
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdfFY 2020-21 to 3.2 in FY 2023-24. The SAWW, which is projected by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, increases from 2.0 to 3.5. The annual SAWW increase is calculated using the growth rate between the index for each school district weighted by property tax collections. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsyl- vania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Weighted index calculated by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Office March 2019 4 exceptions approved and Hits: 4 |
REU-2020-01.pdfhas been on the rise since August 2019 and climbed to 4.5 percent in December, largely due to higher labor force participation. Net job gains held steady for the month. Pennsylvania taxable retail sales continue to exhibit unusually strong in December, to 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent respectively. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average Hits: 4 |
REU-2019-12.pdfINDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2019 Economic Trends The Pennsylvania unemployment rate ticked upward again in November due to increased labor force participation, while the net job gains held steady. For the fourth consecutive month, Pennsylvania retail sales continued to Philadelphia metro CPI-U increased to 2.1 percent in November. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average Hits: 4 |
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdfon the real earnings of U.S. workers. 1 The latest monthly earnings release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirms that finding. The release found that real average hourly earnings (i.e., wages) for all U.S of federal unemployment compensation benefits, which ended the first week of September. That expiration could alleviate some pressures in the labor market and reduce nominal wage growth. The table also shows detail for four sectors. For the leisure and hospitality sector Hits: 4 |
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdfFor 2019 Q4, the wage growth rate is based on actual county-level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for that quarter. For the entire state, wages grew expand by roughly 3 to 4 percent and the 2 Data sources are as follows: (1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, (2) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and (3 Hits: 4 |
RB-2018-01.pdfFY 2019-20 to 3.4 in FY 2022-23. The SAWW, which is projected by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, increases from 2.3 to 3.6. The annual SAWW increase is calculated using the growth rate between the index for each school district weighted by property tax collections. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsyl‐ vania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Weighted index calculated by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Of Ðice January 2018 4 PDE issues Hits: 4 |
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf0.3% 0.3% thousands of residents Population Change by Age Group 8.Jun.2016 13 thousands of residents PA Labor Force May Contract 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 first Baby Boomers turn age 65 possible labor force contraction number turning age 65 number turning age 15 2015 PA Labor Force Participation Rate Age 65+ 18.7% Hits: 4 |
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdfrevised for 2016 and 2017. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 29, 2019 2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP P 500 Index uses average values for entire year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 29, 2019 3 2018 Hits: 4 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdfEconomic metrics for NAP, EEEP and VGP ▪ Gross ROI vs. net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ Output or spending | labor earnings | number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Keys: incentivization parameter, “leakages” and “injections” April of relevant studies ▪ Gross ROI: 12 cents per dollar | Net ROI: 5 cents per dollar ▪ +$22.7m GDP | +$20.9m labor earnings | +320 FTEs Other effects ▪ Social, environmental and aesthetic benefits to communities Recommendations ▪ Standardize application period and commitment decisions ▪ Create Hits: 4 |
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdffined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide release. Employment status of the supervised population is currently tracked. The Department is collaborating with the Department of Labor and Industry to automate the tracking of post-release employment. 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 Hits: 4 |
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptxtax revenues Economic metrics for MTBI, RDTC and KIZ ▪ Gross ROI and net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ GDP | labor earnings | number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Key : incentivization parameter | use consensus of existing 10% is incentivized ▪ Gross ROI: 15 cents per dollar | Net ROI: 9 cents per dollar ▪ $5.9m GDP | $2.5m labor earnings | 39 FTEs Recommendations ▪ If retained, convert to competitive grant program ▪ Require investment to underserved/unserved areas ▪ Report metrics: location Hits: 4 |
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdfrates for 2021.2 and 2021.3 are estimates by IFO based on withholding data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Payroll Jobs: Change from Prior Year August 25, 2021 2 YOY Number compares to a no- pandemic scenario that includes typical seasonal job gains/losses through July. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Non-Motor Sales Tax Breaks Record in July August 25, 2021 3 600 700 800 900 1,000 1 Hits: 4 |
NewsStand_2019_September.pdfrecent homebuyers. Health Issues and Incarceration are Common Factors for Nonworkers A recent study by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics compared employment trends for two cohorts of working- age men. The first cohort included men born between 1960-64 the same age, the study found that men in the second cohort were more likely to be out of the labor force than men in the first cohort. Additionally, the study found that the first cohort reported health issues (51%) and Hits: 4 |
Newsstand_2018_June.pdf(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News New Data Show Strong PA Labor Market On May 23, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state and county employment data for the fourth quarter of 2017. These administrative data provide the final benchmark Hits: 4 |
MTR-2017-07.pdfgrew at an annual rate of roughly 2.7% in the second quarter of 2017. Analysts expect that the tight labor market could provide a further boost to wage growth during the next few quarters. PA PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH STEADY General Weekly Pay Gain Faster Than Other Groups,” July 20, 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over- Hits: 4 |
MTR-2017-06.pdfSERVICE SECTOR DRIVES JOB GAINS The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), issued by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, publishes quarterly data on employment and wages by sector, as reported by employers. In June, state data were released 0.6% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% -0.5% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over- Hits: 4 |
MTR-2016-01.pdfemployed in partnerships as well as owners of S corporations. January 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State Area Employment Data- base. Data exclude military personnel and agricultural workers. 2015 Level Change Since 2007 Number Share 2.2% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase Hits: 4 |
MTR-2015-10.pdfto ensure that their benefits are not eroded by inflation. Annual COLAs are determined by the U.S. Department of Labor based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures inflation’s effect 8.3% 7.7% 13.2% 12.9% 12.3% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase Hits: 4 |
MTR-2015-08.pdf4% 1.4% 1.3% Data Sources: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (Deposit Market Share Reports) and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Financial Activities, Depository Credit Intermediation, Pennsylvania). 1 Amounts in billions. Deposits attributed to Pennsylvania banking activity. 2 Annual average 8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdfthe COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation efforts. Used Car Prices See Strong Gains in August The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released national consumer price index (CPI-U) data for August 2020. For all items less energy, the CPI-U 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdfNote: Orange line reflects Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth for Rent of Primary Residence from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Blue line reflects rent growth estimates from Apartment List. Growing Divergence in Rent Growth Estimates for Pennsylvania 2.6% 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdfon available economic data for the third quarter. Pennsylvania Employment Expands 1.2% in September The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released monthly state employment data. For September, Pennsylvania payroll employment grew by 1.2% (68,000 jobs) from 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdfPhiladelphia Metro Region Inflation Surges Past U.S. Average The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April. For the U.S., the data show that the All 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf35,700 Jobs in January, Employment Down 455,000 from Prior Year On March 15, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January state employment report. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest job gains occurred in the education 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdfCPI-U Increases 4.9%; Non-Housing CPI-U up 6.7% On July 13, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released consumer price index data for metro regions. For June, the Philadelphia metro region CPI-U (All Items) increased 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdfPhiladelphia Consumer Inflation Accelerates in December On January 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the month of December for the U.S. and various metro regions 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdfstress, unregulated breaks and remote working. Pennsylvania Private Employment Fell 14.6% in 2020 Q2 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Business Employment Dynamics for 2020 Q2. This reports gross private sector job gains and losses due to 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdffinancial firms only. Excludes foreign profits. DD is demand deposits. Natural gas price is $/MMBtu. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, EIA, NAR, Federal Reserve Board. Monthly Data Jul-21 Aug-21 Sept-21 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4 |
IFO_PASBO_Oct_2024.pdfwebsite at end • Will answer questions at the end Presentation has three parts • PA Economy: Where are we? • Public School Labor Market • Act 1 Index Outlook: New Data PA Economic Forecast Latest Data 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Real GDP 2024 Data in blue shade are estimates or forecasts. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. Latest PA Economic Trends 2023.3 2023.4 2024.1 2024.2 2024.3 Hits: 4 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdfDirectly Affected Indirectly Affected Note: Data exclude tipped workers. Source: 2022 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Projections by IFO. Financing Wage Gains from Higher Minimum Wage Note: Dollars in billions. $0.0 $0.5 $1 9.1%) FHFA Home Value Index RedFin Home Sales 30-Yr Mortgage Rate Unemployment Rate Housing Market Number Unemployed (000s) Labor Market (SA) Consumers Note: All growth rates or changes are year-over-year (YOY) except Real GDP, which is quarterly Hits: 4 |
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdfNet new jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends May 15, 2019 2 2018 Net New Jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency, PA Lottery, PA Department of Environmental Protection. Annual PA Employment Growth (000s) May 15, 2019 Hits: 4 |
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdfcloser to $30 million 6% rate, includes LOTS of stuff general sales tax ~50% Economic Impact Employment 19,860 jobs Labor Income $1.14 billion Value Added or GDP $1.94 billion Final Output or Sales $3.29 billion State Revenue million +0.24% growth Technical Notes and Caveats Factors that (could) overstate impact ▪ Impacts muted during COVID? | supply chains, tight labor market, other stimulus programs ▪ Sales tax includes tobacco, gross receipts, insurance premiums, gaming…. Factors that clearly understate impact (could be Hits: 4 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdfGlobal. Forecast made November 2023. Includes banks and insurers. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and S&P Global. Recent Pennsylvania Economic Trends November 15, 2023 6 2022.4 2023.1 2023.2 2023 Items 7.1% 6.9% 3.9% 3.9% RedFin Home Sales -24.5% -20.1% -17.6% -17.5% Labor Market Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 189 172 155 148 Change Hits: 4 |
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdfestimates at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant Significant monies now available for certain spending priorities next year Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong Down 472k jobs in December from prior year IFO Indicators for 2020 Q4 March 11, 2021 4 PA Economic Negatives Notes Payroll Jobs -460,000 no near term recovery Labor Force -231,000 reasons unclear Small Business Revenue -28% no recovery in 2021 Q1 PA Economic Positives Cash Income (CY Hits: 4 |
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdfyet translated into higher spending levels. We believe that the key to tax revenue growth in 2014 will be the labor market. Wages are highly correlated with overall economic growth, personal income and sales and use tax revenues. An increase in sustainable without growth in wages. For 2013, wage growth was modest due to low inflation and significant slack in the labor market, which reduces worker leverage. In order for workers to realize wage gains, the slack must be removed from the Hits: 4 |
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdfof Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Fayette County, Westmoreland County Ms. Paula R Boat Commission Game Commission General Services Governor's Office Health Health Care Cost Containment Council Historical and Museum Commission Insurance Labor and Industry Liquor Control Board Lt. Governor's Office Military and Veterans Affairs Milk Marketing Board PA Emergency Management Agency Hits: 4 |
TC_2022_Brewers.pdfoffer tax incentives for the benefit of in-state brewers and industry data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Section 4 discusses factors that affect the economic impact of the tax credit. Section 5 concludes with the tax of tax credits awarded and reported nearly all total production. 8 The data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Although data for 2020 are available, they are not used due to Hits: 3 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdfdata are unavailable at the state level.) The U6 rate includes the unemployed (U3) plus those marginally attached to the labor force, discouraged, or working part-time for economic reasons. As illustrated by the graph, the gap between the U3 and show that the gap between the two series has reverted to pre-pandemic levels as job openings and a tight labor market result in fewer discouraged workers. Senator Brown asked several questions related to the proposal to legalize recreational marijuana. To Hits: 3 |
REU-2020-02.pdfin February. U.S. inflation accelerated in the fourth quarter. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
REU-2019-11.pdfthe Philadelphia metro CPI-U rate has increased gradually since 2018Q4. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
REU-2019-10.pdfpart by a significant increase in home refinancings in recent months. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
RB_2024_04_Older_Workers.pdfnumber employed (+2.1%) was roughly equal to the (preliminary) growth for the entire age cohort (+1.6%), suggesting that labor force participation rates (i.e., the share of the age cohort working or actively looking for work) were similar in age group contraction (-6.7%) exceeded the contraction in number of workers (-3.7%), which suggests an increase in the labor force participation rate. For the age 65+ cohort, the growth in number of workers (+16.7%) greatly exceeds growth for Hits: 3 |
RB_2024_03_Jobs_Revised.pdfOn February 22, 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released 2023 Q3 state-level data for the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) database. The data Jobs data for February 2024 will be released March 22, and those data will provide further insights into the state labor market. 1 This brief uses non-seasonally adjusted data. Because comparisons are year-over-year, the computations will largely match Hits: 3 |
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdfOn February 22, 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released 2023 Q3 state-level data for the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) database. These data the pre-Covid average of 55,000 job gains per annum (dotted line). 1 This outcome implies that the state labor market is less robust than current published data suggest, and that is supported by real-time data on withheld income Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdfThe latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show a rapid deceleration of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Philadelphia metro year of the four-year period. That outcome is due to the rapid deceleration of inflation and an historically tight labor market, especially for jobs with lower hourly earnings. For June 2023, the Pennsylvania unemployment rate (3.8%) was the lowest Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdfit is not known how much remains unexpended by child care providers. To entice child care workers back into the labor force, employers used a portion of ARPA funds to supplement wages. The table on the next page displays the annual 7,200 per child care worker statewide (assumes even split across two years). Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the median hourly wage for a Pennsylvania child care worker (excludes administrators and auxiliary staff) was $11 Hits: 3 |
RB-2016-02.pdfenergy efficiency and conservation measures and the use of alternative fuels. Executive Offices administer programs relating to the arts industry. Labor and Industry provides workforce education and development programs for job training assistance. Transportation administers a program that provides rail freight March 2016 7 General Fund Expenditures by Fiscal Year ($ thousands) Name FY 2013‐14 FY 2014‐15 Description Department of Labor and Industry Industry Partnerships $1,813 $1,813 Promotes collaboration and communication among simi‐ lar companies in the same industry Hits: 3 |
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdfindividual employed in any capacity by the city with the exception of police officers, city paid firefighters, and per diem laborers. An individual holding a position as a laborer at per diem wages is not required to contribute toward the retirement system but may elect to do so and Hits: 3 |
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdffor gasoline for 2018 uses prices through April 2018. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts by IFO. May.01.2018 7 Recent PA non-seasonally adjusted data and exclude self-employed individuals. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Housing Finance Agency. May.01.2018 8 Change in PA Payroll Jobs Hits: 3 |
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdforder to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current share of employment in the U.S. as a whole. Calendar year basis. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupation Employment Statistics (2014-2018). 2 From 2001-2014 there were 2,190 publications. 1 From 2001-2014 grant projects leveraged Hits: 3 |
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdffined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide with existing enterprise financial, human resources and procurement data. Perform a detailed analysis to benchmark facility management labor costs and evaluate options to reduce those costs. Perform a facility condition assessment of historic buildings to develop a preservation roadmap Hits: 3 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf62.9 62.5 57.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates or Change Economic Outlook | Page 2 The revised economic forecast shows more robust growth Core (exclude energy) 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.4 -0.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-U for the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City metro area. Table 1.3 Philadelphia Metro Area Consumer Price Inflation Economic Outlook Hits: 3 |
Newsstand_2019_March.pdf5.2%, respectively. February Philadelphia CPI up 1.5% from Prior Year On March 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released February consumer price index (CPI) data for the PA-NJ- DE-MD statistical area, which includes Bucks, Chester 3%). Excluding consumer purchases related to en- ergy, the CPI-U increase was 1.9%. - March 2019- National News Tight Labor Market Begins to Translate to Wage Gains On March 8, the U.S. Department of Labor released average hourly earnings Hits: 3 |
Newsstand_2019_April.pdf(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Labor Market Slows in 2019 Q1 On April 19, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state employment data for March. The data reveal a nota- ble slowdown in the number of jobs created Hits: 3 |
MTR-2019-09.pdfS. (5.4%) and Pennsylvania (5.0%) in the second quarter. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2019-08.pdfin June and July pulled down the three-month moving average. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2019-07.pdf9 percent) recorded the largest price increases from the prior year. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2019-06.pdf5.4% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JUNE 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2019-05.pdf5.4% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE MAY 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2019-04.pdf5.4% 4.6% 5.0% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE APRIL 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2019-03.pdf6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE MARCH 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2019-02.pdf6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FEBRUARY 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2019-01.pdf6.0% 5.3% 4.3% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JANUARY 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-12.pdf5.4% 6.0% 5.3% 4.3% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-11.pdf5.2% 6.0% 5.3% 4.3% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE NOVEMBER 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-10.pdf5.4% 6.1% 4.9% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE OCTOBER 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-1.pdf0.4% 2.0% -0.6% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JANUARY 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-09.pdf4.5% 5.4% 6.1% 4.9% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-08.pdf4.5% 5.4% 6.1% 4.9% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE AUGUST 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-07.pdf4.5% 5.4% 5.2% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JULY 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-06.pdf4.6% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JUNE 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-05.pdf4.6% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE MAY 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-04.pdf2.0% -0.6% 2.0% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE APRIL 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-03.pdf2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 4.2% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE MARCH 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-02.pdf0.4% 2.0% -0.6% 2.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FEBRUARY 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-12.pdf1.7% -0.4% 2.0% -0.6% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-11.pdf0.8% -0.5% 2.3% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE NOVEMBER 2017 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-10.pdf0.6% 0.8% -0.5% 2.3% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE OCTOBER 2017 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-09.pdf2.8% 5.2% n.a. n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2017 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-04.pdfn.a. -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-03.pdf4.9% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-02.pdf5.6% 11.2% 11.2% 2.8% 5.2% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-01.pdfn.a. -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-12.pdf4.9% -4.0% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-08.pdf4.0% 13.4% 7.1% 11.2% 9.9% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-06.pdf5.7% 11.8% 13.3% 6.9% 9.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-05.pdfn.a. -1.6% -1.2% -4.5% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-04.pdf5.6% 11.8% 13.3% 6.9% 9.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-03.pdf5.3% -2.4% -1.6% -1.2% -4.5% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-02.pdf2.0% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2015-11.pdfn.a. -0.6% -2.3% -1.6% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2015-09.pdf8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4 Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey Hits: 3 |
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdfpreliminary to final for 2015. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Economic Forecast Comparison 25.Jan.2017 4 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mining-Logging 1.7 -3 6 43.4 50.0 Note: Figures represent change in average level for calendar year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Employment Growth (000s) 25.Jan.2017 5 PA Inflation Picks Up Year-Over-Year Increase Hits: 3 |
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf7.3 Total Job Gains 63.7 39.9 16.6 41.7 48.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014 is preliminary. 2015 estimate by IFO. Annual Job Gains and Losses (000s) 28.Jan.2015 5 PA Economic 8% 2.7% 19.8% All Items Less Energy 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI‐U weight represents 2011 and 2012. $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Hits: 3 |
Kling_Presentation.pdfexplains its methods by providing technical information. Recent examples include the following: A working paper on how CBO projects labor force participation rates An appendix describing how CBO analyzed the distribution of household income A slide deck about projections by category, along with tax parameters and effective marginal tax rates 10-year projections of economic output, prices, labor market measures, interest rates, income, and other economic factors Details of projections and underlying parameters for Social Security, Medicare Hits: 3 |
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf62.9 62.5 57.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates or Change Economic Outlook | Page 2 Overall, the revised economic forecast shows more robust Core (exclude energy) 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.4 -0.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-U for the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City metro area. Table 1.3 Philadelphia Metro Area Consumer Inflation Economic Outlook | Page Hits: 3 |
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf9.3 Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. December data are preliminary. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Metro Area Employment. 2020 PA Payroll Employment: Change from Prior Year Independent Fiscal Office 4 February 2021 December Level (000s) Change 2019 to 2020 Subsector Detail: PA Employment Change from Prior Year Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Metro Area Employment. Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. December 2020 data are preliminary. Excludes self-employed Hits: 3 |
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdfEconomic and Budget Outlook Slide 13 15.Nov.2012 Economic Outlook Modest growth, very slow “recovery.” Weakness in labor market. Consumers still “unwinding.” Rebuilding home equity. Paying down debt. Much uncertainty. Concern now shifts to student loan through FY 2017-18: Personal Income Tax 4.1% average annual growth rate (3.7% withholding). Assumes increasing labor force participation rate. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 46 15.Nov.2012 Revenues The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide Hits: 3 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdfnot seasonally adjusted and do not include self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NY Federal Reserve Board, Zillow and U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey. Recent Contraction of PA Payroll Jobs 9 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. June data are preliminary. Does not include self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some Subsectors Hit Hard, but a Few Gain August 19, 2020 4 YOY Number Change (000s) YOY Percent Growth Hits: 3 |
Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdfPennsylvania, and (2) it includes compensation, wages and salaries, healthcare, and other benefits. The ECI measures the overall cost of labor and excludes the impact of employment shifts across occupations and industries. The annual growth in current-year school district property categories: special education, certain debt, and retirement contributions. 2 The SAWW is computed and published by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. The ECI is computed and published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3 School districts with Hits: 3 |
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdfof the current-year taxes collected in FY 2018-19. 5 The SAWW is reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. The ECI is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Prior Year Base (includes Act 1 Allocations) $14,640 Hits: 3 |
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdfon withholding trends through December. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. PA Economic Forecast Revisions Final Preliminary Projection Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 4 United States of net job creation. All data except CPI-U are preliminary and subject to revision. Sources: U.S. Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis. Recent Economic Trends Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 5 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mining-Logging Hits: 3 |
2002_drop_report.pdfof Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Westmoreland County Executive Director: Anthony W. Salomone 1) Nonconforming IROPs must conform within 180 days of the effective date of the IROP statute or when the current labor-management contract expires, whichever is later. 2) If a local government that established an IROP fails to comply within 90 Hits: 3 |
LinksIFO - Links IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Links U.S. Economic Indicators • Bureau of Economic Analysis • Bureau of Labor Statistics • Census Bureau • Weekly Jobless Claims • Employment Situation • Advance Retail Sales • Existing Home Sales • GDP and Profits • Monthly Personal Income • New Residential Sales • Case-Shiller Home Prices • Consumer Confidence PA Economic Indicators • Labor Force and Employment • Quarterly Personal Income • Gross State Product • Business Outlook, Philadelphia Fed State Government • Department of Labor and Industry Hits: 3 |
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf330m) dominate industry. Base credit rates range from 20% to 30%. Many states give higher rates for resident labor. Productions are highly mobile and consider credits. Many states to choose from. Sensitive to credit amount offered. Current credit State ROI is 13.1 cents. Consistent with non-industry studies. Recommendations for FPTC: Higher credit for resident labor. Bigger bang for the buck. Separate pools for TV, film and independent productions. Temporary higher credit for TV Hits: 2 |
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdfmillion from FY 2020-21. An additional $42.2 million has been approved for FY 2022-23. • The Department of Labor and Industry has been appropriated $11.3 million for job training programs for FY 2022-23, a $0.7 million 0 12.0 12.0 12.0 WedNet 6.7 7.9 6.5 8.2 11.0 8.0 Labor and Industry 2.3 12.3 12.6 10.6 10.6 11.3 Partnerships for Regional Economic Perf. 9 Hits: 2 |
Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdfdevelopment. An additional $48.2 million has been approved for FY 2023-24. • For FY 2023-24, the Department of Labor and Industry was appropriated $14.3 million for job training programs, a $3.0 million (26.5%) increase from FY 7 512.1 Job Training Programs Manufacturing PA 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 Labor and Industry 12.3 12.6 10.6 10.6 11.3 14.3 Partnerships for Regional Economic Perf. 8 Hits: 2 |
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptxand CA ($330m) dominate industry. ▪ Base credit rates range from 20% to 30%. ▪ Many states give higher rates for resident labor. Productions are highly mobile and consider credits. ▪ Many states to choose from. Sensitive to credit amount offered. Current credit is tax credit. ▪ State ROI is 13.1 cents. Consistent with non-industry studies. Recommendations for FPTC: ▪ Higher credit for resident labor. Bigger bang for the buck. ▪ Separate pools for TV, film and independent productions. ▪ Temporary higher credit for TV productions that Hits: 2 |
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf330m) dominate industry. Base credit rates range from 20% to 30%. Many states give higher rates for resident labor. Productions are highly mobile and consider credits. Many states to choose from. Sensitive to credit amount offered. Current credit State ROI is 13.1 cents. Consistent with non-industry studies. Recommendations for FPTC: Higher credit for resident labor. Bigger bang for the buck. Separate pools for TV, film and independent productions. Temporary higher credit for TV Hits: 2 |
SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsxis an estimate. 4 Regional CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent is an estimate. 4 Regional CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Hits: 2 |
Senate_Maj_Policy_Comm_April_13_2021.pdfseasonally adjusted. Figures for February are preliminary. YOY is year-over-year. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. April 13, 2021 Detail for Leisure and Hospitality Sector 3 YOY Number Change seasonally adjusted. Figures for February are preliminary. YOY is year-over-year. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. April 13, 2021 Leisure-Hospitality Small Business Revenues Down 55% April 13, 2021 Hits: 2 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2024.pdfthe U.S. Employment Cost Index (ECI) for elementary/secondary schools. The SAWW is reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. The ECI is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. School districts with an aid ratio less than 0.4000 utilize the base index. All other districts utilize an Hits: 2 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdfSAWW) and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for elementary/secondary schools. The SAWW is reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. The ECI is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. School districts with an aid ratio less than 0.4000 utilize the base index. All other districts utilize an Hits: 2 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdfSAWW) and the employment cost index (ECI) for elementary/secondary schools. The SAWW is reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. The ECI is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. School districts with an aid ratio less than 0.4000 utilize the base index. All other districts utilize an Hits: 2 |
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdfof the current-year taxes collected in FY 2018-19. 5 The SAWW is reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. The ECI is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Prior Year Base (includes Act 1 Allocations) $15,170 $15,750 Hits: 2 |
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf20.1% -17.6% -17.5% -5.9% 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 6.37% 6.51% 7.04% 7.30% Labor Market Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 142 115 108 85 Change Sales - Motor Vehicle 2.1 29 car sales rebound, flat prices PIT - Withholding 4.0 529 flat jobs growth, tight labor market PIT - Other 4.3 206 Inheritance 0.0 0 All Tobacco -7.4 -62 Realty Transfer 11.2 61 Hits: 2 |
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdfForecast 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 3 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real Gross State Product May 8 1.8 2.0 2.6 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. Primary Economic Driver: Consumer Spending Consumers must drive economic growth. o Comprise 70% Hits: 2 |
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdfpercent of total state personal income tax revenues. Sales and Use Based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) and IRS, the analysis estimates that seniors effectively remit 19 to 22 percent of total state (Internal Revenue Service), Consumer Expenditure Survey for northeast consumers and consumers age 65 or older (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) and the American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau). Table 2 Pennsylvania Senior Share of Tax Revenues Estimated Senior Hits: 2 |
RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdfThe latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for January and February 2024 reveal that the healthcare-social assistance, accommodation-food service and government sectors generated of jobs. Excludes self-employed. Data are not seasonally adjusted. YTD is year-to-date. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CreationDate: 2024-04-10 12:34:45 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024-04-10 12:36 Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdfresults are as follows: ▪ Employment falls by 35,100. This figure includes full- and part-time workers and self-employed. ▪ Labor income falls by $2.0 billion. Labor income includes employee compensation and self- employment income. 8 ▪ Value Added or nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) falls by $3 Hits: 2 |
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdfto job training and workforce development, a decrease of $6.6 million from the prior fiscal year. • The Department of Labor and Industry was appropriated $10.6 million for job training programs. These funds primarily support the Apprenticeship and Training Office 7 389.8 Jobs Training Programs Manufacturing PA 0.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Labor and Industry 2.3 2.3 2.3 12.3 12.6 10.6 Partnerships for Regional Economic Perf. 10 Hits: 2 |
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdfArmstrong) and northern counties (e.g., Potter, Bradford and Susquehanna) due to strong gains recorded for net earnings (earnings from labor) and dividends, interest and rent. Moreover, some of those counties (Armstrong, Bradford, Potter and Susquehanna) recorded strong income growth despite 3 displays the share of county personal income comprised of resident earnings, or active income attributable to the provision of labor services (wages, salaries and proprietor income). The top three counties were Chester (68.9%), Butler (68.1%) and Bucks (66 Hits: 2 |
RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdfData, Provider Information | Provider Data Catalog (cms.gov). 3 Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4 Pennsylvania Health Care Association, Survey: 2023 State of Pennsylvania Nursing Facilities, February 2023. 5 The waitlist is an and residential care facilities. Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2023. Calculations by the IFO. Nursing Home Capacity Contracts Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 of $2,838 for Hits: 2 |
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdfand workforce development. This was an increase of $3.9 million over the prior fiscal year. The Department of Labor and Industry spent $12.6 million on job training programs. These funds primarily support the Apprenticeship and Training Office and Jobs Training Programs Partnerships for Regional Economic Perf. 12.1 10.7 12.4 9.1 8.0 13.0 Labor and Industry 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 12.3 12.6 Manufacturing PA 0.0 0.0 Hits: 2 |
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdfall other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.04.2018 5 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 62.9 62.5 Note: Professional Services includes the Management and Administrative-Waste Management sectors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. June.04.2018 6 PA Natural Gas Statistics 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Production (bcf) 4,053 4,582 Hits: 2 |
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdfall other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.05.2018 4 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 62.9 62.5 Note: Professional Services includes the Management and Administrative-Waste Management sectors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. June.05.2018 5 PA Natural Gas Statistics 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Production (bcf) 4,053 4,582 Hits: 2 |
PICPA_Presentation.pdfrepresents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Admin., Federal Housing Finance Agency. Change in Payroll Employment (000s) June 7, 2017 12 2014 includes the Management and Administrative sectors. Data for 2017 represent the annualized pace through April. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Mortgage Debt Falls – Other Debt Increases June 7, 2017 13 Annual Growth in PA Per Capita Debt 2012 2013 Hits: 2 |
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdfU.S. Census Bureau. Fund balance data are from The Pew Charitable Trusts. Employee data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics as of October 2022 (preliminary). Calculations by the IFO. Select State Budget Comparisons State Debt (2020) Fund Balances (2022 14.9% 461 72 15.6% 7 Environmental Protection 2,291 69 3.0 2,317 66 2.8 -3 Labor & Industry 3,814 51 1.3 3,956 55 1.4 4 Transportation 11,121 46 0.4 10,993 Hits: 2 |
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdfconstruction and improvement costs. Constant 2019 dollars, adjusted for inflation using CPI-U data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Digest of Education Statistics, 2020 (2021). NCES, Revenues and Expenditures for Public force. For example, the Kentucky Longitudinal Data System (KLDS) integrates education and work- force data from the Departments of Education, Labor, and postsecondary and higher education organizations to collect and link data to evaluate outcomes related to state education and workforce Hits: 2 |
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdforder to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current g., corporate registrations, UCC filings and charity registrations). Electronic submission of registrations and filings should reduce de- partment labor costs and data entry errors. Policymakers should monitor the cost savings from electronic submission to confirm that all cost-saving opportunities have Hits: 2 |
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdforder to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current compared to the national average of 15 percent. A closer working relationship between DHS and the Department of Labor and Industry (L&I) could facilitate tracking outcomes related to TANF and employment training. This would create opportunities to track the average Hits: 2 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdfmade to Pennsylvania residents as reported by the Social Security Administration. Table 1 decomposes Cash Income into six income categories: labor income (57% of total for 2024, includes residence adjustment), capital income (12%), business net income (10%), retirement income (9%) and non-resident individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits, (3) net capital gains, (4) rent and royalty income Hits: 2 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdfmade to Pennsylvania residents as reported by the Social Security Administration. Table 1 decomposes Cash Income into six income categories: labor income (57% of total for 2023, includes residence adjustment), capital income (12%), business net income (10%), retirement income (9%) and non-resident individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits, (3) net capital gains, (4) rent and royalty income Hits: 2 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdfmade to Pennsylvania residents as reported by the Social Security Administration. Table 1 decomposes Cash Income into six income categories: labor income (58% of total for 2022, includes residence adjustment), capital income (10%), business net income (11%), retirement income (10%) and non-resident individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits, (3) net capital gains, (4) rent and royalty income Hits: 2 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdfmade to Pennsylvania residents as reported by the Social Security Administration. Table 1 decomposes Cash Income into six income categories: labor income (54% of total for 2021, includes residence adjustment), capital income (11%), business net income (8%), retirement income (10%) and non-resident individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits, (3) net capital gains, (4) rent and royalty income Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdfPennsylvania residents as reported by the Social Security Administration. Table 1 decomposes Cash Income into six income categories: labor income (56 percent of total for 2020, includes residence adjustment), capital income (9 percent), business net income (8 percent), retirement income (11 individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits, (3) net capital gains, (4) rent and royalty income, (5) dividends Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdfPennsylvania residents as reported by the Social Security Administration. Table 1 decomposes Cash Income into six income categories: labor income (57 percent of total for 2019, includes residence adjustment), capital income (12 percent), business net income (11 percent), retirement income (10 individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits, (3) net capital gains, (4) rent and royalty income, (5) dividends Hits: 2 |
NFIB_Feb_2024.pdfrevision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Payroll Jobs excludes self-employed. PA Labor Market: Pre vs Post-Covid Slide 2 Feb 2024 Economic Forum Pre Post Change Change 2019 Q4 2023 Q4 Number 500 PA home values +32% checking and saving Philly CPI +19% +48% +38% Downshift in Late Spring or Early Summer Labor Market Reversion to mean: create 30-40k jobs per annum Consumers Remaining “excess” savings depleted for many Federal Feb 2024 Hits: 2 |
NewsStand_2019_June.pdffrom the Third District, which includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The article explores the epi- demic’s impact on labor force participation rates and economic costs. It finds that the total per capita cost of the opioid epidemic for Pennsylvanians was the fourth largest decline in the country. Private Racetrack Industry Employs 30,000 On June 7, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released establishment and employment statistics for privately owned racetracks. California had the most privately owned racetracks (85), followed by Hits: 2 |
NewsStand_2019_July.pdfJuly NBER Digest summarized a working paper that explored the link between student debt, other forms of credit utilization and labor market outcomes. Using a natural experiment created by recent collections lawsuits, the study followed two cohorts and found that debt additional earnings over a three-year period. Philadelphia Region Inflation Remains Steady On July 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released regional consumer price index data. The Philadelphia region CPI-U increased by 2.1% from the previous June Hits: 2 |
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf2000 An article from the Wall Street Journal discusses the April jobs report released by the U.S. Department of Labor and the factors that influenced the decline in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. The main factors mentioned include global competition, a recent decline in the size of the labor force and the retirement of baby boomers. The article also discusses the Federal Reserve’s plan of action moving forward Hits: 2 |
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdfFiscal Analysis The provision is projected to have no fiscal impact in FY 2019-20. Licenses and Fees Labor & Industry Augmentation (Act 15) The act increases the amount of inspection fees augmenting the appropriation to the Department of Labor and Industry’s Bureau of Occupational and Industrial Safety to $10 million. This provision is effective June 28, 2019 and applies to Hits: 2 |
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdfthe REMI model to ensure that the tax cuts flowed to the relevant economic agents. • The REMI model allows population, labor force and employment (includes self-employed) to expand in response to lower taxes relative to other states. • The economic expansion Gross Domestic Product $1,978 $2,069 Personal Income $1,350 $1,123 Wages $925 $843 Population (000s) 22 36 Labor Force (000s) 14 21 Employment (000s) 17 15 General Fund Tax Revenue $87 $84 Notes: Calendar years, millions of nominal Hits: 2 |
IFO ppt.pdf1.2% 1.2% 0.9% January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Cause: Unexpected Labor Market Weakness 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% Budget US PA March 2010 Unemployment Rate January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal being flushed out. – Profits and Balance Sheets strong. Ready to expand. • Consumer Sentiment/Confidence key. Base much of outlook on labor market reports, especially unemployment rate. • For PA, state-local govt reductions appear to have abated for now. • Some room for Hits: 2 |
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdfabsolute size will have negative implications for growth. The main point of strength for the state economy is the robust labor market. For 2018, preliminary data suggest that the state economy produced more net payroll jobs than any year since 2000 that average wages grew by 3.0% compared to consumer inflation of 1.5%. The only downside to the state labor market is that nearly one-third of the net new jobs created occurred in three low-wage sectors: food service Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdfdata very preliminary). Retirement surge has important implications. “Churning” reduces growth of total wages paid. Possible contraction of labor force. But participation rates increase. No signs of “brain drain” or strong elderly inflow. Recent data suggest a small for the time period 2011 to 2015. November 16, 2017 16 Economic Outlook Projections by IFO U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis The Economic Outlook PA economy shows solid growth through 2017 Q3. Pace Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdfoldest state based on median age (40.7 years). A Surge in Retirements During the Next Decade. Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for 65+. Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? New Data Suggest Int 2013-14 -26,482 Net Inflows also from RI, CT, MS Economic Outlook Projections by IFO U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 11/15/2016 15 Long-Term PA Economic Forecast Average Annual Growth Rates Hits: 2 |
Demographics_Outlook_2024.pdfa critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and older residents who may require long- larger share of residents to age in place and avoid more costly NH care. At the same time, a tight labor market post-COVID and recently increased Pennsylvania minimums for staff- to-patient ratios and direct care hours per resident per Hits: 2 |
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdfa critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long- 1965 to 1980) and Millennials (born 1981 to 1997) and a portion of Generation Z (born 1998 to 2015). If labor force participation rates do not increase, then this trend will constrain economic and revenue growth in the future. ▪ The retiree Hits: 2 |
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdffactor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care Millennials (born between 1981 and 1997) and a portion of Generation Z (born between 1998 and 2015). If labor force participation rates do not increase, then this trend will constrain economic and revenue growth in the future. The retiree cohort Hits: 2 |
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf2025 because of the scheduled expiration of some provisions of the 2017 tax act. 13 Short Term ▪ Inflation ▪ Economic growth ▪ Labor supply ▪ Supply chains ▪ International issues Longer Term ▪ Fiscal trajectory ▪ Size of the labor force ▪ Productivity and capital accumulation ▪ Income distribution ▪ Climate change Short- and Longer-Term Economic Issues CreationDate: 2022-11-09 22 Hits: 2 |
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf5,566,400 jobs. December 2013 = 5,761,600 jobs. Current Employment Statistics, seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Nonfarm Employment – Year Over Year Growth Rates Source: IHS Economics, January 2014 and the Independent Fiscal Office. -300 670 19,151 -520 -2.6% Total 137,973 136,768 -1,205 -0.9% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Economics, January 2014. 6 The Pennsylvania Economy – Inflation and Gasoline Prices • Inflation is forecasted to remain low Hits: 2 |
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf20.1% -17.6% -17.5% -5.9% 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 6.37% 6.51% 7.04% 7.30% Labor Market Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 142 115 108 85 Change Sales - Motor Vehicle 2.1 29 car sales rebound, flat prices PIT - Withholding 4.0 529 flat jobs growth, tight labor market PIT - Other 4.3 206 Inheritance 0.0 0 All Tobacco -7.4 -62 Realty Transfer 11.2 61 Hits: 2 |
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdfcost-of-living for retirement benefit recipients is the Consumer Price Index, which is issued monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the relative cost over time of a number of consumer goods, services Hits: 2 |
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdfto the first round. Employment would also increase in response to the additional spending, but the potential impact on the labor market is less certain, and any positive impact might be temporary. 1 U.S. Social Security Administration, Office of Retirement Hits: 1 |
Testimony-02-2020.pdfGDP, Payroll Jobs and Wages-Salaries data for 2019 are preliminary and will be revised. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve Board of New York. Forecasts by IFO Hits: 1 |
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdfeconomic development incentives. 17 Because the Pennsylvania petrochemical manufacturing industry currently includes only one establishment, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish state data for the number of employees and total wages paid. Therefore, the U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdfthe individuals who operate them. The NASS publishes data on agricultural production and sales, land use, production practices, finances, farm labor and wages and other industry detail. Because data are collected every five years, the tables in this section display data Hits: 1 |
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdfInsurance Insurance Regulation & Oversight 31,575 Table 1 - Special Fund Disbursements for FY 2018-19 Primary Agency Fund Name Available Labor and Industry Job Training $0 Rehabilitation Center 23,155 Liquor Control Board State Stores 2,742,307 Military and Veterans Hits: 1 |
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf71 32.01 TCJA 16.72 24.46 25.36 22.47 Penn Wharton Budget Model 5 Trade GDP (% change) Labor Services (% change) Capital Services (% change) Year High return to capital Low return to capital High return to capital Low return Hits: 1 |
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdfage and retired. Uses median characteristics from U.S. Census (income) and spending patterns from U.S. Dept. of Labor (by age and income). Compare taxes under current law and the proposal. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdfand SUT ($1,456 million) primarily driving the underprediction. Many factors contributed to the forecast error, including: (1) a tight labor market that resulted in very strong wage growth (PIT and SUT), (2) much higher than expected inflation rates (PIT and Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdfand SUT ($1,456 million) primarily driving the underprediction. Many factors contributed to the forecast error, including: (1) a tight labor market that resulted in very strong wage growth (PIT and SUT), (2) much higher than expected inflation rates (PIT and Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdfand Use Tax – The forecast projects a moderate increase in non-motor collections consistent with higher consumer confidence, an improving labor market and increased disposable income. Receipts are restrained by low inflation for taxable consumer goods. Motor vehicle receipts are projected Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdfand technical factors,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2014-15 anticipate a return to growth due to improvements in the labor market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdfand SUT ($1,456 million) primarily driving the underprediction. Many factors contributed to the forecast error, including: (1) a tight labor market that resulted in very strong wage growth (PIT and SUT), (2) much higher than expected inflation rates (PIT and Hits: 1 |
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdfstate (Internal Revenue Service), Consumer Expenditure Survey for northeast consumers and consumers age 65 or older (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) and the American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau). Table 3 Pennsylvania Senior Share of Tax Revenues FY 2018- Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdfRate -- 7.8% 8.3% 11.5% 3.9% 35.4% Pennsylvania Child Care Sector Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Private Child Care Sector. 2023 annual average is estimated by the IFO based Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdffor July of relevant year. 2019 Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Open Data PA. population is estimated by IFO. CPI-U data are for October. SNAP Policy Changes Expand Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdfwork less to move below the threshold. While emergency allotments provide relief, they will also likely reduce the supply of labor, which is reinforced by expansion of the income thresholds. Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdfLast week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 2021 Q3 data for the U.S. employer cost index (ECI, wage compensation only) and the U Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdfdec apr aug 2012 dec apr aug 2013 PA US 7.3 7.7 Monthly Unemployment Rates US – declines in labor force participation rate 24 . Sept . 2013 16 PA Job Gains and Losses Since Recession thousands 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hits: 1 |
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf8% 2.7% 19.8% All Items Less Energy 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-U weight represents 2011 and 2012. 12.Feb.2015 22 Average Wage Growth vs. Inflation -1.0% 0 Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx5% -2.0% -0.5% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/) Demographics by State 1990-2012 Year/ Total Population Share of Population Annual Growth Rate Age Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf6 22.Jun.2015 2 PA Economic Forecasts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. 2014 GDP is preliminary. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rank Pennsylvania 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdfGrowth Forecast SAWW Base ECI Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Forecast by IFO using data from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. March 8, 2018 IFO School Property Tax Forecast $7,151 $7,323 $7,539 $7 Hits: 1 |
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf2012. PA is 6th oldest state based on median age (40.7 years). Surge in Retirements. Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for 65+. Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? Decline in working age Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdfestimates that internet sales collections from all three sources total $600 million. Sources: Independent Fiscal Office, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth Rates: PIT Withholding and Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax IFO Presentation to Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdfyear-over-year growth rate. QA denotes a quarterly annualized growth rate. Sources: Independent Fiscal Office, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, October 9, 2018. Growth Rates Hits: 1 |
platt ppt.pdfstate o GDP by metropolitan area Personal Income Income received by persons from: o Current production (factor payments to labor and capital) o Business and government transfers 5 www.bea.gov Components of Personal Income ▪ Earnings (Place of Work) Hits: 1 |
Pirates_Press_Release_2024_07.pdfEntertainment $145 $100 Total $385 $505 Economic Footprint ($ millions) Net Direct Spending $254 Total Spending $546 Spending Multiplier 2.15 Labor Income $219 FTE Jobs Supported 2,950 State Taxes $22 Personal Income $9 Sales & Use $10 Other $4 The report Hits: 1 |
Phillies_Press_Release_2024_07.pdfEntertainment $165 $95 Total $465 $485 Economic Footprint ($ millions) Net Direct Spending $525 Total Spending $970 Spending Multiplier 1.85 Labor Income $427 FTE Jobs Supported 5,450 State Taxes $45 Personal Income $16 Sales & Use $22 Other $7 The report Hits: 1 |
PBB_TaxCredits_Schedule_2022_Update.pdfServices – Part 2 State Police Military & Veterans Affairs 4 Education Human Services – Part 3 Aging PA Historical & Museum Commission Agriculture Labor and Industry 5 Drug and Alcohol Programs Insurance Revenue Executive Offices Environmental Hearing Board Conservation and Natural Resources Year Tax Hits: 1 |
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdfS. Census Bureau. 4 Source is the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 5 According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting. Performance Measures for Agricultural Marketing and Development 3 Growth rates are year-over- Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdforder to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdforder to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdffined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdffined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdffined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide Hits: 1 |
NFIB_Presentation.pdf0 Dec.13.2017 7 Final Preliminary Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. General Fund Balance Sheet 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 AAGR Beginning Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_March_2020.pdfelimination of work hours for some employees. 2019 Employment Data Revised Upward On March 16, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released updated payroll employment data for states and met- ropolitan areas. The revision increased average Pennsylvania payroll employment by Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_January_2020.pdfmonth in November. However, the increase in the unemployment rate was due to a positive factor—more people joining the labor force, rather than more people not working. Under these conditions, a decline of the leading index raises less concerns. State Hits: 1 |
NewsStand_2019_May.pdfby 2.4%. Jobs in Retail Sector Contract Significantly Through April 2019 On May 17, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state jobs figures for April. For the first four months of the calendar year, the data show that Hits: 1 |
NewsStand_2019_December.pdfbusiness cycles and explores factors that increase cyclical sensitivity. While national and state unemployment rates have reached historic lows, regional labor market conditions vary greatly across the United States. In April 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.6%, but Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_November.pdfanalysis cites high- er inflation, declining union membership, less willingness to relocate for job-related reasons and domination of the labor market by larger firms as possible reasons. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_August.pdfsame time period in the prior year. That pace reflects the strongest 3-month gain since April 2012. A strong labor market and higher discretionary income from federal tax cuts are likely two relevant factors that contribute to that outcome. PA Hits: 1 |
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdfThe grant had to be used for the following purposes: • $45,000 for Site Fees which could include promotional materials, labor and rental fees at Beaver Stadium and the Penn State campus, and event hospitality. • $25,000 for the Ironman Annual Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdfour five-year budget projections in November. Related to revenues, the state economy is performing as expected. Through July, the labor market produced 62,800 net jobs (preliminary, average gain) relative to the same time period last year. That is a Hits: 1 |
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdfover-year. Average hourly earnings deflated by Philadelphia CPI-U. Excludes self-employed and government. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (data and methodology). General Fund Tax Revenues Surge Relative to PA Economy Amounts or Levels Growth Rates 2018-19 Hits: 1 |
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf85.0 135.3 182.5 442.5 Insurance Department 0.8 1.7 2.7 3.7 8.9 Labor & Industry 10.7 23.0 36.6 49.4 119.7 Liquor Control Board 7.7 16.4 26.1 Hits: 1 |
Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.9% 3.5% --- Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic and Budget Outlook, IFO (Nov. 2019), Zillow, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. CreationDate: 2019-12-02 Hits: 1 |
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdfinstitution. Slide eight of the presentation contains State and Metro Area Employment (SAE) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). These data are updated frequently but contain less detailed employment data by subsector than Hits: 1 |
Economic_Summit_Presentation_Sept_2023.pdf23. Those adjustments reverse the treatment of disallowed student loan forgiveness to derive underlying deficit. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, RedFin, FHFA, Monthly Treasury Statement, Congressional Budget Office. CreationDate: 2023-09-13 13 Hits: 1 |
Announcement_2021.pdfto register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. Why have workers departed the state labor force? How long will inflation remain elevated? Does any pent-up demand remain from unspent federal stimulus? The IFO will Hits: 1 |
Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdfGeneral Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth and the following six labor unions: 1 • Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA) • Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) • Office and Professional Employees Hits: 1 |
2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdfHome Sales -18.1% -5.5% -4.1% -- 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 7.04% 7.30% 6.80% 7.05% Labor Market Unemployment Rate 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 81 85 72 81 Change Hits: 1 |
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf2010 trough = 5,569,900. December 2012 = 5,751,500. Current Employment Statistics (CES), seasonally adjusted. Source: PA Department of Labor and Industry. PA Nonfarm Employment – Quarterly Growth Rates Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2013 PA forecast. -300,000 -250,000 Hits: 1 |
2004_srpvffinal.pdfof Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Fayette County, Westmoreland County Ms. Paula R Hits: 1 |