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Labor Market Update- August 2021

The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month.

Tags: labor, market, update

Labor Market Update- July 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. 

Tags: labor, market, update

Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

Tags: labor, market, update

Labor Market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

Tags: labor, market, update

labor Market Update- August 2021

The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month.

08/24/2021

labor Market Update- July 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. 

07/19/2021

labor Market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

06/23/2021

labor Market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

06/03/2021

Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 Section 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................. 3 Section 2: Demographic Outlook .............................................................................................. 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19 Section 4: Revenue Outlook .................................................................................................... 21 Personal Income Tax ..................................................................................................................... 22 Sales and

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

they will increase the hourly wage to $15.00 this year. Minimum Wage | Page 12  The Pennsylvania labor market continues to be tight, with relatively low unemployment. Barring a recession, demographic trends (i.e., a contracting working age cohort between some low- wage workers have not received wage gains that are commensurate with higher productivity due to a labor market that is not fully competitive for low-wage workers. Under these conditions, a higher minimum wage will cause less disruption than

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

all states. There is significant competition for film and television productions because they are highly mobile and specialized labor and talent necessary for the productions can be imported. While advocates note that tax credits can leverage up to four to five studies.  On net, the tax credit retains roughly 1,140 jobs per annum and $68 million of labor income. That outcome assumes that 90 percent of productions are incentivized by the tax credit. If the true figure is half that

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

non-resident individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits (sole proprietors, partnerships, S corporation shareholders, self-employed), (3 is proposed law. Assumes that inflation increases by 2.5% for 2021. Source: CPI-U from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Personal Income Tax | Page 18 The analysis also compared SP thresholds to federal poverty levels (FPL). The ratio of

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

analysis that will impact the updated estimates:  The analysis uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey of employers for 2019. 19 Last year, the analysis used survey data from the U Despite recent disruptions due to COVID-19 and consistent with the prior analysis, this analysis assumes that the labor market in Pennsylvania is characterized by low unemployment in the ab- sence of a higher minimum wage. Therefore, the analysis reflects longer-

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MER-2014-01.pdf

Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

economic forecast, but rather a controlled simulation. They assume that economic growth is consistent with full employment, historical labor productivity gains and inflation expectations. The economic simulation provides a neutral baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that Pennsylvania ................................................. 6 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth Rates ........................................................... 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ........................................................................ 8 Net Domestic Migration Trends ................................................................................ 9 PA Labor Force Participation Rates ......................................................................... 10 Fiscal Year to Date Revenues ................................................................................. 11 General Fund Revenue Projections ......................................................................... 12 General Fund Financial Statement Comparison

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

the latest data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through October 23, 2020. All forecasts in this section are by the IFO. Pennsylvania Economic Forecast Table 1.1 displays a for all economic variables, with the exception of inflation. The latest employment data for CY 2020 reveal rapid labor market improvement in May, June and July, but much more modest gains in August and September. That outcome is explored further in

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

with a limited discussion regarding whether the infusion of significant federal monies into the state economy, when combined with temporary labor market conditions attributable to the pandemic, is conducive to raising the state minimum wage from its current level of $7 LWA payments for qualifying weeks in August and September 2020). The table below uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry (DLI) to distribute payments from the expanded programs to state residents based on income level. The estimates do

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

only a portion of the higher consumer spending flows to Pennsylvania manufacturers. Employment falls by 507 jobs and labor earnings decline by $22 million.  A fee (10 cents) increases consumer spending on other goods and services as spending on retail one-half of the lower consumer costs flow back to Pennsylvania manufacturers. Employment increases by 260 jobs and labor earnings increase by $10 million. This positive result occurs because a larger portion of the redirected consumer spend- ing remains in the

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

21 to 2025-26 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 21, 2021 Today’s Presentation Four Parts  Demographics a contracting labor force  Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  19. Shares are number working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force participation rates reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

and independent contractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. Economic Outlook | Page 2 The forecast assumes continued recovery from the significant contraction in calendar chain issues and (2) federal monies injected into the national and state economies that have created tem- porary materials and labor shortages in certain sectors of the economy. For some former workers, there remains a reluctance to rejoin the labor force

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

2.0% 0.9% 3.7% 2.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All forecasts by IFO. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Note: Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors chain issues and (2) federal monies injected into the national and state economies that have created tem- porary materials and labor shortages in certain sectors of the economy. For some former workers, there remains a reluctance to rejoin the labor force

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

76.4 54.8 3.90 1,398 2.3% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. Data are from the US Department of Labor - Survey of Households. Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

contractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic Outlook | Page 3 Table 1.2 displays the U.S. economic forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and IHS full recovery to levels observed prior to the pandemic. Both forecasts also project a large reduction in the labor force (i.e., those employed or seeking employment) due to mandated business closures. Overall, the IFO forecast assumes a relatively quick recovery

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

full recovery to levels observed prior to the pandemic. Both forecasts also project a large reduction in the labor force (i.e., those employed or seeking employment) due to mandated business closures. 3 Release dates were as follows: IHS Markit (May contractors. Annual Growth Rate or Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic Outlook | Page 3 Overall, the IFO forecast assumes a relatively quick recovery from the significant contraction imposed on the state

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

A. Carville Foster, Jr.Vice ChairmanRetired Legislator Senator Daylin B. LeachDistrict 17 Montgomery County Mr. Christ J. ZervanosRetired Director of Labor RelationsOffice of AdministrationCommonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative Mike TobashDistrict 125 Berks and Schuylkill Counties Mr. David F. Werner, CPARetired PrincipalState and Database (made possible by the Pew Center on the States) via the following link:http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/labor/pension-legislation-database.aspx A report entitled Laura and John Arnold Foundation Policy Perspective, Pension Litigation Summary, Stuart Buck, PH

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Demographic Are Key. • General Trends: Past Decade and Next Two. • Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others. Economic Implications. • Size of Labor Force and Participation Rates Important. • Income and Jobs Composition Changes. Expenditure and Revenue Implications. • Expenditures Affected by Population Growth in 2016 6 The Next Decade: 2015 to 2025  Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964. • Retirements greatly reduce the potential labor force. • Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. • Will savings be sufficient to support longer life spans? 

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

 Description of the project and how it qualifies as R&D  Listing of third party/subcontractor labor costs Prior year expenditures  R&D credit calculation review  Signature page  Ownership information compliance check Applicants must also ap- proximately 70 percent) represents wage/salary/benefit payments to employees who perform re- search. Payments to contract labor comprise approximately 15 percent while spending on supplies and equipment comprise the residual. 8  On average, the ratio of the tentative

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MER-2015-02.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure offsets 19. Shares are number working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force participation rates reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus

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RB-2015-04.pdf

impact of that proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the number of workers who would be directly or potentially affected by the proposal. It then uses a monthly survey of households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau on behalf of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides data on the labor force, employment levels, unemployment rates and various other demographic and labor force characteristics

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MER-2014-09.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

and used in state are exempt from sales tax (6.25 percent). Prior to March 2002, only the labor charges associated with aircraft MRO were exempt from tax. Since its enactment, there have been multiple attempts to repeal the exemption in Taxed Taxed Yes 5.00 1/ Exempts aircraft above a certain maximum certificated takeoff weight threshold. 2/ Exempts labor if itemized separately on the sales invoice. The table assumes those charges would be itemized separately. 3/ Exempts aircraft used primarily to

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

75+. Three Demographic Waves 7/14/2017 7 Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964.  Retirements greatly reduce the potential labor force.  Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. Generation X or Baby Bust: Born 1965 to 1984.  Unusual exits from labor force.  Changing attitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004.  Wave

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MER-2015-03.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Westmoreland County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Ms. Paula R. Mandle President ICCR) began to employ shareholder resolutions as a means for engaging companies in dialogue on public policy issues such as labor conditions, environmental and community impacts. Corporate governance rules and the proxy-voting process were used to raise a broad set

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current over time. The department might limit its focus to actual jobs created and engage with the Department of Labor and Industry to verify all new employment at firms that receive economic development incentives. Currently, the department requires payroll compliance reports for

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

Sources: Index and components through 21-22 published by PDE. For later years, SAWW is projected by the Department of Labor and Industry and ECI is projected by IHS Markit with minor adjustments by the IFO. Assumes no change in minimum Sources: Index and components through 21-22 published by PDE. For later years, SAWW is projected by the Department of Labor and Industry and ECI is projected by IHS Markit with minor adjustments by the IFO. Assumes no change in minimum

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

Labor Force Participation Rates Continue Downward Trend In 2014 Labor force participation rates (LFPRs) are often viewed as a measure of the strength of the labor market. The Bureau of

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MER-2014-12.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2013-11.pdf

v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

non-financial firms endured this credit contraction, they also faced a precipitous drop in sales volume. Firms responded by reducing labor costs and postponing investment to preserve profit margins. From their pre-recession peaks to recession trough, data reveal steep declines research and other infrastructure purposes. 11 The modest real growth of national and state economies has had limited impact on labor markets and unemployment rates remain highly elevated compared to historical levels. Prior to the recession, official unemployment rates ranged from

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

also offer higher rates for wages paid to residents as a way to encourage companies to hire locally. Non-resident labor may be included at a lower rate or not at all. Pennsylvania offers a broad definition of qualified expense and film programs) are noted below:  Louisiana provides an uncapped tax credit equal to 25 percent of qualified in-state labor and 18 percent of qualified production expenses for digital media and software development companies. The credit can be utilized against

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

The COVID-19 pandemic had a disparate impact on men and women in the workforce. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes national jobs data by gender and other demographic factors. In February 2021, there was a decline of Much of the reason for the lower unemployment rate for women is that more working-age women have departed the labor force since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and are not currently seeking employment. Since February 2020, the labor

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

68 54 -450 100 Philadelphia CPI-U 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. CY 2020 Lost Labor Income More Than Offset October 29, 2020 2 Estimate Notes Lost Labor Income ($ billions) Wages-Salaries -$20.8 6% reduction

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

increase $1.00 per hour in 2020 and 2021. Without a phase- in, the proposal would cause significant labor market disruptions. The three-year phase- in allows firms to adjust resources and facilitates passing costs forward to final con- sumers as their hiring and pricing policies. The phase-in allows markets to adjust and allows firms to push higher labor costs forward into the final prices that consumers pay. Due to the explicit phase-in, there is a smaller projected employment contraction

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

their earnings, and changes in annual pay can affect consumer confidence. Employers are more likely to increase wages when the labor market is competitive, but less likely to do so if there is slack. Therefore, an acceleration or slowing of total 2012), followed by weak growth in 2013 (1.6%). The weak growth was likely a result of slack in the labor market, as some discouraged workers re-entered the labor force and sought employment. For 2014 and 2015, improving economic conditions

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MER-2015-06.pdf

Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10-Year Treasury Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2015-04.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2015-01.pdf

Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10-Year Treasury Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2014-11.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2014-10.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2014-08.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2014-07.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2014-06.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2014-05.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2014-04.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2014-03.pdf

Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2014-02.pdf

Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10‐Year Treasury Yield on 10‐year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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MER-2013-12.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data energy. 9 10-Year Treasury Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note. 8 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

82.6 51.7 3.74 1,412 2.2% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 441 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

billion of federal monies injected into state Four key questions ▪ What happens when federal monies are removed? ▪ Is there a labor shortage? ▪ Is the uptick in inflation transitory? ▪ Is there a stock market and/or housing market bubble? Many unusual factors independent contractors. Home Price Index for 2021 is year-over-year gain for Q1 only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FHFA. Forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Trends May 26, 2021 4 Annual Growth

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

Dec.2014 The Economic and Budget Outlook 2 Demographic Outlook Age Distribution Life Expectancy and Median Age Age of Workforce Labor Force Participation Rates Components of Population Change All Data from Pennsylvania State Data Center 3.Dec.2014 3 3.Dec Pennsylvania State Data Center. half the rate of increase 4 Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964. • Retirements reduce the potential labor force. • Oldest reach typical retirement age (65) in 2011. • Many now continue to work past age 65. Generation X or

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

and next two. o Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others. o Very long term: trends through 2040. Economic Implications o Labor Force, Income and Jobs Composition, Growth. Budget Implications o Persistent tax base erosion due to demographics. 12.June.2014 2 Negative in 2013 or 2014 US PA  Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964 o Retirements greatly reduce the potential labor force. o Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. o Will savings be sufficient to support longer life

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

to $12.00 Presentation for the PA Economy League Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office May 1, 2019 The Pennsylvania Labor Market May 1, 2019 1 Annual Growth Rate, Change or Level 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Net Jobs Created (000s 17.3 Note: All Other Healthcare includes ambulatory care, hospitals and nursing/residential care facilities. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment. The Minimum Wage Proposal Increase minimum wage from $7.25 to $12.00/hr (+65

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

 Executive Summary | Crucial Assumptions | Recession Risk  Demographics: a contracting workforce  Economics: modest 2018 gains from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1 supplemental appropriation. Net revenues deduct refunds and include lapses. Assumes future one-time measures are not utilized. Three Critical Assumptions Labor force expands despite decline in 20-64 year olds.  Labor force participation rates must increase.  Will there be

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that Snapshot .................................................................................................... 8 Most PA Job Gains to Age 55+ ................................................................................................................. 9 Net Domestic Migration Trends ............................................................................................................ 10 PA Demographic Trends Cause Tight Labor Market ...................................................................... 11 General Fund Financial Statement Comparison .............................................................................. 12 FY 2019-20 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 13 FY 2020-21 Revenue Projections ........................................................................................................... 14

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

73.8 53.1 3.31 1,498 1.6% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 515 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

72.9 50.7 3.31 1,426 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 498 1.6% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

82.7 49.5 3.45 1,416 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 426 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

7 10 49.5 3.46 1,416 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 412 2.2% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

72.3 49.8 3.44 1,379 1.4% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 441 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

73.2 49.7 3.54 1,362 1.7% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 407 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

79.3 53.5 3.73 1,310 1.7% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data 379 1.4% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce. 4/ National

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

in Michigan,” Connect Michigan (March 2013). Section 4: Economic Analysis | Page 12 percent of total project cost if labor is included) has a significant impact on new investment in broadband infrastructure. The incentive impact of the state tax credit is also the cost of a mobile broadband project is related to equipment. 15 The remaining costs are attributable to labor and do not qualify for the tax credit. Line 5 Total cost of the project (i.e., qualified equipment and labor). Line

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

To compare Pennsylvania to other states, Table 2.5 uses business data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for three specific subsectors that receive significant KIZ awards: computer system design and related services (NAIC 5415), software publishers (5112) and 1% 4.6% United States 7.8% 17.9% 4.1% 5.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Calculations by IFO. Table 2.5 Average Growth in Number of Business Establishments: 2014 to

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts May 26, 2020 2 February 29 First 184.1 5.1 Philadelphia CPI-U 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic May 26, 2020 4 Annual

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

the latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The trends reveal the recent mod- eration in the Pennsylvania labor market as the pace of net new jobs creation fell from 69,600 (annualized rate) in 2018 Q1 to 50,800 (preliminary

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

Gains (000s) 28 -849 -506 -440 Philadelphia CPI-U 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% -- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Net Job Gains using quarterly data represent annualized amount and in 2020 Q4 November 18, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

Gains (000s) 28 -849 -505 -435 Philadelphia CPI-U 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% -- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Net Job Gains using quarterly data represent annualized amount and in 2020 Q4 December 9, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

and Home Sales are for January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA, NY Federal Reserve Board and Zillow. Pandemic Timeline and Mitigation Efforts June 22, 2020 2 February 29 First 184.1 5.1 Philadelphia CPI-U 2.2% 3.4% -0.4% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic June 22, 2020 4 Annual

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

the latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The trends reveal the recent mod- eration in the Pennsylvania labor market as the pace of net new jobs creation fell from 69,600 (annualized rate) in 2018 Q1 to 50,800 (preliminary

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

through December 2024 (much is restricted)  IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong  Down 441k jobs in February from prior year  Positives 5.7% -14.5% 5.7% 5.4% 6.0% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 29 -896 -517 -468 -450 Change Labor Force (000s) 51 -96 -160 -231 -229 Home Values 5.1% 4.8% 8.3% 10.8% --- Notes: Real GDP

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

Pennsylvania March Jobs Growth Flat The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released March employment data for Pennsylvania. Year-over-year total non-farm employment growth was essentially flat (0 the March employment data do not reflect the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data collection date (the week of March 12) occurred prior to enactment of most statewide measures to combat the

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Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Payroll Jobs Record Strong Gains in June This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. Based on the week, then the equivalent wage rate doubles. The IFO projects that many traditional UC recipients will attempt to rejoin the labor force during the next month while a wider selection of jobs remain available and in order to lock in any

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Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf

Jobs Continue to Recover, but Significant Shortfall Remains This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data two weeks. In last month’s update, the IFO speculated that many traditional UC recipients would attempt to rejoin the labor force, but there would only be modest change for PUA recipients due to their tenuous connection to the labor force

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most 9% Corporate Domestic Profits 6.4% -0.5% -2.8% 5.6% 11.7% 14.4% 1.9% 3.6% Labor Market Jobs Created (millions) 2.56 2.88 2.53 2.27 2.33 0.74 -0.38 2.46

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

the Treasury assumes that 82 percent of the tax is borne by capital owners and 18 percent is borne by labor. 4  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assumes that 75 percent of the tax is borne by capital owners and 25 percent is borne by labor. 5  The Joint Committee on Taxation uses the same assumption as the CBO. 6  The Tax Policy Center

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Fayette County, Westmoreland County Executive Director: Anthony State and school employees in PA. May impede recruitment of youn- ger, mobile employees. Benefit is fully portable. May increase labor costs due to increased employee turnover. Recruitment of younger, mo- bile employees may be facilitated. Benefit Risk Benefit is fixed

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

both permanent and temporary)  Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor market and consumer sales May 20, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections May 20, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 or forecasts. Corporate profits are non-financial, domestic profits. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Economic Forecast vs Long-Run Growth May 20, 2019 3 2013-18 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP 1

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

Philadelphia CPI-U Increases 3.5%, Core CPI-U up 5.0% On May 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data for metro regions. For April, the All Items CPI-U for the Philadelphia metro region increased of time. March Increase in Northeast Job Openings Rate Largest on Record On May 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data from the monthly job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS). The job openings rate (number of

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

National Wage Gains Surge On May 28, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released monthly data on U.S. personal income (NIPA Table 2.6). For March and April (latest two months scale. Data for May will be released on June 25 and the IFO expects further wage gains due to tight labor market conditions in many sectors. PA COVID-19 Job Loss Disproportionately Impacted Young and Female Workers The U.S. Census

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics and economy  Labor market still robust | consumers drive growth  Auto loan delinquencies at all time high | mortgage refis double State budget  45.4 45.7 Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Demographics Cause Tight Labor Market February 28, 2020 6 Number of Residents (000s) 2015 2016

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

and (3) declining corporate profits. However, many underlying economic fundamentals remain solid. For Pennsylvania, positive fundamentals include:  A stable labor market. For 2015, the Pennsylvania economy generated 54,800 additional payroll jobs, up from 45,800 in 2014.  Relative Lottery Fund and the Oil and Gas Lease Fund.  Service populations that expand at a faster pace than the labor force that supports the tax base.  Healthcare inflation that outpaces general inflation and many sources of revenue. The report

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

revised for 2017 and 2018. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 28, 2020 2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP Profits for non-financial firms only. Includes S corporations. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 28, 2020 3 2018

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Independent Fiscal Office

25, 2021 Director Matthew Knittel presented an economic and revenue update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. ... (Full Report) Labor Market Update- August 2021 News Stand & Other August 24, 2021 The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month. ... (Full

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

preliminary and will be adjusted in March 2020. Excludes independent contractors, self-employed and military. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (not seasonally adjusted). Employment Gains and Losses by Sector Table 2B: New York Share of Sector preliminary and will be adjusted in March 2020. Excludes independent contractors, self-employed and military. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (not seasonally adjusted). March 6, 2020 Page 8 Share of Sector 2017 2018 2019 Jobs Mining

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RB-2017-5.pdf

growth. Pennsylvania has a relatively low rank for payroll employment (45 th ) because there is very modest growth of the labor force due to demographic trends. Pennsylvania ranks higher for GDP (29 th ) and personal income (37 th ) because retirees and are from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for payroll employment are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6 For the economic metrics, the data span from calendar year 2010 to 2015, as opposed to a fiscal

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

both permanent and temporary)  Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor and housing markets June 11, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections June 11, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 or forecasts. Corporate profits are non-financial, domestic profits. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Economic Forecast vs Long-Run Growth June 11, 2019 3 2013-18 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP 1

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

PA 2.1% PA 2.5% 2011-16 PA 1.8% PA Seniors Working More May 24, 2017 13 All Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Year Groups 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 2001 65.0% 85.2% 83 8% 20.1% Excludes Disabled 25.5% Change 2001-2016 -1.2% -1.1% +5.0% +8.1% Note: The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the share of the age group that is part of the labor force. The labor

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

Where are we? How did we get here? Demographic Outlook.  Suggests economic and budgetary challenges. Economic Outlook.  Solid labor market, but consumption tepid. Budget Outlook.  Revenue and expenditures. Pensions. Gaming. General Fund Balance Sheet Growth Rates 13-14 Years.  Retirement wave accelerates.  Baby Boom more pronounced in PA than US. Mid-Term: 5 - 10 Years.  Labor force may contract.  Tax burden falls on smaller cohort. Long-Term: 10+ Years.  Deaths exceed births.  Heavily

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

rates were in Nebraska (3.1) and South Dakota (3.5). The opioid crisis impacts the economy by shrinking the labor force. A recent study by Goldman Sachs finds that the crisis may be connected to declining prime-age labor force participation, especially for men. 3 Other research finds that nearly one-half of workers not in the labor force

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

production from a well. A new well can produce at a high level for at least two years with minimal labor. Once operators have built up an inventory of wells, they can manage production levels by increasing or decreasing output from employment data are necessary to confirm that outcome. November 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Provided by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Labor and Industry. 2 Released on November 30, 2016. 3 Natural Gas Intelligence, “Oil/Gas Analysts Chart Industry’s ‘Bumpy’ Recovery

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

Philadelphia CPI-U Growth Decelerates in August On September 14, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released CPI-U data for August. The data for the Philadelphia metro region show year-over-year inflation of in Philadelphia, 4.8% in Pittsburgh, 16.1% in Allentown and 11.7% in Harrisburg. For August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded YOY growth in Rent of Residence of 2.6% for the Philadelphia metro region, revealing a growing divergence

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

stimulus payment. Pennsylvania Unemployment Rate Declines to 13.0 Percent in June On July 17, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June state employment/unemployment report. The percent of Pennsylvania’s labor force that is unemployed (seasonally adjusted) fell to 13.0% from 13.4% a month earlier, due partly to a

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

Recovers Half of Jobs Lost From April Low, but Employment Growth Decelerates On August 21, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July state employment report. The data reveal that by July, nearly one-half (529,100, not seasonally from 13.2% in June to 13.7% in July, due in part to almost 88,000 Pennsylvanians reentering the labor force. The pace of the jobs recovery was generally consistent across sectors. For example, the retail (-127,000 loss, 51%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

is expected to continue until at least 2024, which should enhance future productivity gains. Another key growth metric is the labor force participation rate (LFPR). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in this rate from 63.3% in February 2020 to 61.5% in March 2021. For

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Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Job Gains Remain in Holding Pattern This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. For openings at an all-time high and quit rates at the highest level since 2000. Both factors reflect a tight labor market and strong demand for workers, which does not align with ongoing job loss or the large number of UC

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey), PA Department of Education, PA Department of Revenue, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Consumer Expenditure Survey) and Internal Revenue Service. All computations by the IFO. U.S. Age 65+ Sources of Income Source: U.S. Social Security Administration. More PA Seniors Are Working Too Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 11 PA Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group Year All Groups 20-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 1997 64

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

grants, abatements November 14, 2019 3 Guest Presentations Guest presentations posted separately November 14, 2019 4 Four Critical Assumptions PA Labor force expands despite decline in 20-64 year olds  Labor force participation rates must continue to increase Moderate growth of personnel cost drivers after FY 19-20  Personnel costs

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most over-year annual rates. Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IHS Economics. (4) Preliminary data show a significant contraction of the PA economy in the first quarter

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most over-year annual rates. Source: Historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IHS Economics. (4) Preliminary data show a significant contraction of the PA economy in the first quarter

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

4.1. Based on that profile, 4.4 percent of qualified spending flows to non-residents in the form of labor com- pensation, 1.4 percent to Pennsylvania residents as wages and 94.2 percent to goods and services providers (e Impact 16 Total Output or Spending 1 $13.8 $41.0 17 Gross Domestic Product $7.1 $22.5 18 Labor Earnings $4.1 $13.0 19 Full-Time Equivalent 53 203 20 Tax Revenues 2 $1.2 $2.8 Return

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation • Solid Labor Market • Some Wage Weakness Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 Real GDP 2.3% 1.9% n.a. n.a. Wages

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

November 19, 2018 1 Three Quick Updates  Demographic projections and outlook (3 slides)  Job creation and the PA labor force (3)  FY 2019-20: a difficult budget year ahead (5) All material from IFO’s Economic and Budget 22.6 26.9 25.1 Total Net Jobs 50.0 62.9 66.9 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Excludes self-employed. 2018 forecast by IFO. PA Jobs Creation Since 2006 November 19, 2018 7

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

100.0% 100.0% Note: Professional-Business includes Professional Services, Management and Administrative-Waste Management. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Excludes self-employed individuals. August.08.2018 15 Service Sector Jobs Dominate Con’t Net PA 15 -69 Wholesale-Retail 28 -47 1 Manufacturing -212 -99 1 TOTAL 389 -178 326 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Series. Excludes self-employed individuals. August.08.2018 16 U.S. Seniors Working More Avg. Annual Growth

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

of +4.2%.  Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy.  Corporate base expansion enhances revenues.  Tight labor market sustains wage growth.  Inflation accelerates above 2%. Helps pricing power. June.12.2018 2 Optimistic Revenue Outlook Wage recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. Strong Labor Market = Income Gains June.12.2018 3 PA Consumer Income vs. Spending 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT.pdf

Construction Cost Index is published by the Engineering News-Record. The index is composed of the 20-city average of labor rates and certain construction material prices (e.g., structural steel, Portland cement, lumber). ▪ The project cost over budget metric compares 1.0 million). ▪ In FY 2020-21, the motor voter program cost estimate is $548,000 and includes facility and labor costs. 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Workload (in thousands) Driver licenses issued/renewed

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

of state. Note: Billions of dollars. PPP includes both pass-through entities and C corporations. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Treasury Department, Small Business Administration. Growth of PA Cash Income Peaks in 2020 Despite COVID June 17, 2021 2021 assumes a no-pandemic scenario for 2020 and normal seasonal hiring. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Impact of Business Closures vs. One Year Later June 17, 2021 6 YOY Change (000s) YOY Growth Apr 20

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

in credit card, auto and student loan debt more than offset a slight decline in mortgage debt. Second, the PA labor market could be weak, generating few jobs and minor gains in take home pay. However, data for January to April 2017 suggest a strong labor market that created 63,000 net new jobs (annualized rate), compared to 52,200 for CY 2016. Moreover, withholding tax

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

the average price per county weighted by sales per county. Average Milk Prices per Gallon 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Bloomberg, “Grocery Prices are Plunging,” September 27, 2016. 3 WSJ, “Food Price Deflation Cheers Consumers, Hurts Farmers, Grocers 29, 2016. 4 Global Dairy Market Outlook, “Global Markets see August Rally,” August 29, 2016. 5 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey. $3.00 $3.20 $3.40 $3.60 $3.80 $4.00 $4.20 Q1 Q2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

and private sector declined relative to the prior year. For November 2020, recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal that local public school districts employed 268,800 staff, a decline of 5.5% (-15,700 jobs, not Appliances and Used Cars Increase Dramatically The December Philadelphia Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased 1.1% over the prior year (not seasonally adjusted) continuing a trend of modest year-over-year price

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

CPI-U Increases 5.4%; Non-Housing CPI-U up 6.6% On August 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the U.S. city average consumer price index (CPI-U) data for July. For All Items, the index growth across the six consumer debt categories, driven by higher prices and volume. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Philadelphia-area prices for new cars increased 18.7%, and used cars increased 45.3% from June 2020. For

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. For 650 (traditional) per week. The IFO will update these data once the May jobs figures are released later this month. Labor Market Update June 2021 Feb Mar Apr Feb Mar Apr Total Employment -443.5 -431.5 -444.5 42.8

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast.  General weakness. All forecasts underperform.  An exception: PA labor market posts solid gains.  Recent U.S. data confirm weak PA trends: 2017 Q1 Real GDP +0.7% growth 46.7 52.2 55.7 Note: Professional Services includes the Management and Administrative sectors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4 02.May.2017 Recent Economic Trends 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 PA Real

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that 3% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% Corp Domestic Profits -3.5% -1.1% 2.3% 9.3% 6.6% -- -- -- -- -- Labor Market Net Jobs Growth 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1%

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

3.9% 4.0% 2.5% Source: Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 7 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 1.5% 1.7% 0.0% Source: Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 8 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

8 Net Economic and Revenue Impact 1 9 Output or Spending $52.1 10 Gross Domestic Product $22.7 11 Labor Earnings $20.9 12 Full-Time Equivalent Jobs 320 13 Tax Revenues 2 $1.7 Return on Investment 14 Gross equal impact on both taxes in terms of new revenue. In order for the tax credit to be self-financed: ▪ Labor earnings would need to increase by $500,000 / 3.07% = $16.3 million if all earnings were subject to Pennsylvania

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

2021-22 to 3.5 percent in FY 2024-25. The SAWW, which is projected by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, increases from 3.3 to 3.7. The annual SAWW increase is calculated using the growth rate between the index for each school district weighted by property tax collections. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsyl- vania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Weighted index calculated by the IFO. Act 1 Exceptions Independent Fiscal Office February 2020 4

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

FY 2020-21 to 3.2 in FY 2023-24. The SAWW, which is projected by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, increases from 2.0 to 3.5. The annual SAWW increase is calculated using the growth rate between the index for each school district weighted by property tax collections. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsyl- vania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Weighted index calculated by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Office March 2019 4 exceptions approved and

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REU-2020-01.pdf

has been on the rise since August 2019 and climbed to 4.5 percent in December, largely due to higher labor force participation. Net job gains held steady for the month.  Pennsylvania taxable retail sales continue to exhibit unusually strong in December, to 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent respectively. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average

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REU-2019-12.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2019 Economic Trends  The Pennsylvania unemployment rate ticked upward again in November due to increased labor force participation, while the net job gains held steady.  For the fourth consecutive month, Pennsylvania retail sales continued to Philadelphia metro CPI-U increased to 2.1 percent in November. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

For 2019 Q4, the wage growth rate is based on actual county-level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for that quarter. For the entire state, wages grew expand by roughly 3 to 4 percent and the 2 Data sources are as follows: (1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, (2) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and (3

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RB-2018-01.pdf

FY 2019-20 to 3.4 in FY 2022-23. The SAWW, which is projected by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, increases from 2.3 to 3.6. The annual SAWW increase is calculated using the growth rate between the index for each school district weighted by property tax collections. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsyl‐ vania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Weighted index calculated by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Of Ðice January 2018 4 PDE issues

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

0.3% 0.3% thousands of residents Population Change by Age Group 8.Jun.2016 13 thousands of residents PA Labor Force May Contract 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 first Baby Boomers turn age 65 possible labor force contraction number turning age 65 number turning age 15 2015 PA Labor Force Participation Rate Age 65+ 18.7%

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

revised for 2016 and 2017. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 29, 2019 2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP P 500 Index uses average values for entire year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 29, 2019 3 2018

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf

Economic metrics for NAP, EEEP and VGP ▪ Gross ROI vs. net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ Output or spending | labor earnings | number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Keys: incentivization parameter, “leakages” and “injections” April of relevant studies ▪ Gross ROI: 12 cents per dollar | Net ROI: 5 cents per dollar ▪ +$22.7m GDP | +$20.9m labor earnings | +320 FTEs Other effects ▪ Social, environmental and aesthetic benefits to communities Recommendations ▪ Standardize application period and commitment decisions ▪ Create

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

fined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide release. Employment status of the supervised population is currently tracked. The Department is collaborating with the Department of Labor and Industry to automate the tracking of post-release employment. 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

tax revenues Economic metrics for MTBI, RDTC and KIZ ▪ Gross ROI and net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ GDP | labor earnings | number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Key : incentivization parameter | use consensus of existing 10% is incentivized ▪ Gross ROI: 15 cents per dollar | Net ROI: 9 cents per dollar ▪ $5.9m GDP | $2.5m labor earnings | 39 FTEs Recommendations ▪ If retained, convert to competitive grant program ▪ Require investment to underserved/unserved areas ▪ Report metrics: location

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

rates for 2021.2 and 2021.3 are estimates by IFO based on withholding data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Payroll Jobs: Change from Prior Year August 25, 2021 2 YOY Number compares to a no- pandemic scenario that includes typical seasonal job gains/losses through July. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Non-Motor Sales Tax Breaks Record in July August 25, 2021 3 600 700 800 900 1,000 1

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NewsStand_2019_September.pdf

recent homebuyers. Health Issues and Incarceration are Common Factors for Nonworkers A recent study by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics compared employment trends for two cohorts of working- age men. The first cohort included men born between 1960-64 the same age, the study found that men in the second cohort were more likely to be out of the labor force than men in the first cohort. Additionally, the study found that the first cohort reported health issues (51%) and

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News New Data Show Strong PA Labor Market On May 23, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state and county employment data for the fourth quarter of 2017. These administrative data provide the final benchmark

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

grew at an annual rate of roughly 2.7% in the second quarter of 2017. Analysts expect that the tight labor market could provide a further boost to wage growth during the next few quarters. PA PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH STEADY General Weekly Pay Gain Faster Than Other Groups,” July 20, 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

SERVICE SECTOR DRIVES JOB GAINS The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), issued by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, publishes quarterly data on employment and wages by sector, as reported by employers. In June, state data were released 0.6% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% -0.5% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

employed in partnerships as well as owners of S corporations. January 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State Area Employment Data- base. Data exclude military personnel and agricultural workers. 2015 Level Change Since 2007 Number Share 2.2% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

to ensure that their benefits are not eroded by inflation. Annual COLAs are determined by the U.S. Department of Labor based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures inflation’s effect 8.3% 7.7% 13.2% 12.9% 12.3% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

4% 1.4% 1.3% Data Sources: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (Deposit Market Share Reports) and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Financial Activities, Depository Credit Intermediation, Pennsylvania). 1 Amounts in billions. Deposits attributed to Pennsylvania banking activity. 2 Annual average 8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation efforts. Used Car Prices See Strong Gains in August The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released national consumer price index (CPI-U) data for August 2020. For all items less energy, the CPI-U 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

on available economic data for the third quarter. Pennsylvania Employment Expands 1.2% in September The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released monthly state employment data. For September, Pennsylvania payroll employment grew by 1.2% (68,000 jobs) from 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

35,700 Jobs in January, Employment Down 455,000 from Prior Year On March 15, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January state employment report. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest job gains occurred in the education 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

CPI-U Increases 4.9%; Non-Housing CPI-U up 6.7% On July 13, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released consumer price index data for metro regions. For June, the Philadelphia metro region CPI-U (All Items) increased 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

stress, unregulated breaks and remote working. Pennsylvania Private Employment Fell 14.6% in 2020 Q2 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Business Employment Dynamics for 2020 Q2. This reports gross private sector job gains and losses due to 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

Net new jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends May 15, 2019 2 2018 Net New Jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency, PA Lottery, PA Department of Environmental Protection. Annual PA Employment Growth (000s) May 15, 2019

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

estimates at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant  Significant monies now available for certain spending priorities next year Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong  Down 472k jobs in December from prior year  IFO Indicators for 2020 Q4 March 11, 2021 4 PA Economic Negatives Notes Payroll Jobs -460,000 no near term recovery Labor Force -231,000 reasons unclear Small Business Revenue -28% no recovery in 2021 Q1 PA Economic Positives Cash Income (CY

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

yet translated into higher spending levels. We believe that the key to tax revenue growth in 2014 will be the labor market. Wages are highly correlated with overall economic growth, personal income and sales and use tax revenues. An increase in sustainable without growth in wages. For 2013, wage growth was modest due to low inflation and significant slack in the labor market, which reduces worker leverage. In order for workers to realize wage gains, the slack must be removed from the

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Fayette County, Westmoreland County Ms. Paula R Boat Commission Game Commission General Services Governor's Office Health Health Care Cost Containment Council Historical and Museum Commission Insurance Labor and Industry Liquor Control Board Lt. Governor's Office Military and Veterans Affairs Milk Marketing Board PA Emergency Management Agency

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REU-2020-02.pdf

in February.  U.S. inflation accelerated in the fourth quarter. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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REU-2019-11.pdf

the Philadelphia metro CPI-U rate has increased gradually since 2018Q4. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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REU-2019-10.pdf

part by a significant increase in home refinancings in recent months. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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RB-2016-02.pdf

energy efficiency and conservation measures and the use of alternative fuels. Executive Offices administer programs relating to the arts industry. Labor and Industry provides workforce education and development programs for job training assistance. Transportation administers a program that provides rail freight March 2016 7 General Fund Expenditures by Fiscal Year ($ thousands) Name FY 2013‐14 FY 2014‐15 Description Department of Labor and Industry Industry Partnerships $1,813 $1,813 Promotes collaboration and communication among simi‐ lar companies in the same industry

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

individual employed in any capacity by the city with the exception of police officers, city paid firefighters, and per diem laborers. An individual holding a position as a laborer at per diem wages is not required to contribute toward the retirement system but may elect to do so and

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

for gasoline for 2018 uses prices through April 2018. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts by IFO. May.01.2018 7 Recent PA non-seasonally adjusted data and exclude self-employed individuals. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Housing Finance Agency. May.01.2018 8 Change in PA Payroll Jobs

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT.pdf

YFC youth and this report includes outcome measures for these pro- grams. DHS continues to work with the Department of Labor and Industry to collect and track employment Department of Human Services Overview | Page 8 outcomes related to various activities, including number of days postpartum a mother could receive follow up care. Postpartum visits monitor the mother’s recovery from pregnancy, labor and delivery in a proper manner and ensure the mother and child are doing well. Well child visits for infants

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current share of employment in the U.S. as a whole. Calendar year basis. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupation Employment Statistics (2014-2018). 2 From 2001-2014 there were 2,190 publications. 1 From 2001-2014 grant projects leveraged

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

fined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide with existing enterprise financial, human resources and procurement data.  Perform a detailed analysis to benchmark facility management labor costs and evaluate options to reduce those costs.  Perform a facility condition assessment of historic buildings to develop a preservation roadmap

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

62.9 62.5 57.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates or Change Economic Outlook | Page 2 The revised economic forecast shows more robust growth Core (exclude energy) 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.4 -0.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-U for the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City metro area. Table 1.3 Philadelphia Metro Area Consumer Price Inflation Economic Outlook

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

5.2%, respectively. February Philadelphia CPI up 1.5% from Prior Year On March 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released February consumer price index (CPI) data for the PA-NJ- DE-MD statistical area, which includes Bucks, Chester 3%). Excluding consumer purchases related to en- ergy, the CPI-U increase was 1.9%. - March 2019- National News Tight Labor Market Begins to Translate to Wage Gains On March 8, the U.S. Department of Labor released average hourly earnings

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Labor Market Slows in 2019 Q1 On April 19, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state employment data for March. The data reveal a nota- ble slowdown in the number of jobs created

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

S. (5.4%) and Pennsylvania (5.0%) in the second quarter. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

in June and July pulled down the three-month moving average. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

9 percent) recorded the largest price increases from the prior year. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

5.4% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JUNE 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

5.4% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE MAY 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

5.4% 4.6% 5.0% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE APRIL 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE MARCH 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FEBRUARY 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

6.0% 5.3% 4.3% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JANUARY 2019 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

5.4% 6.0% 5.3% 4.3% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

5.2% 6.0% 5.3% 4.3% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE NOVEMBER 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

5.4% 6.1% 4.9% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE OCTOBER 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

0.4% 2.0% -0.6% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JANUARY 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

4.5% 5.4% 6.1% 4.9% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

4.5% 5.4% 5.2% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JULY 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

4.6% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JUNE 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

4.6% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE MAY 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

2.0% -0.6% 2.0% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE APRIL 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 4.2% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE MARCH 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

0.4% 2.0% -0.6% 2.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FEBRUARY 2018 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

1.7% -0.4% 2.0% -0.6% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

0.8% -0.5% 2.3% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE NOVEMBER 2017 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

0.6% 0.8% -0.5% 2.3% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE OCTOBER 2017 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

2.8% 5.2% n.a. n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2017 Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

n.a. -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

4.9% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

5.6% 11.2% 11.2% 2.8% 5.2% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

n.a. -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

4.9% -4.0% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

4.0% 13.4% 7.1% 11.2% 9.9% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

5.7% 11.8% 13.3% 6.9% 9.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

n.a. -1.6% -1.2% -4.5% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

5.6% 11.8% 13.3% 6.9% 9.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

5.3% -2.4% -1.6% -1.2% -4.5% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

2.0% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

n.a. -0.6% -2.3% -1.6% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll employment compared to the previous month. PA: Average increase in annual payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Establishments. 3. Average price for one gallon of regular gasoline. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

preliminary to final for 2015. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Economic Forecast Comparison 25.Jan.2017 4 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mining-Logging 1.7 -3 6 43.4 50.0 Note: Figures represent change in average level for calendar year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Employment Growth (000s) 25.Jan.2017 5 PA Inflation Picks Up Year-Over-Year Increase

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

7.3 Total Job Gains 63.7 39.9 16.6 41.7 48.7 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014 is preliminary. 2015 estimate by IFO. Annual Job Gains and Losses (000s) 28.Jan.2015 5 PA Economic 8% 2.7% 19.8% All Items Less Energy 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI‐U weight represents 2011 and 2012. $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

explains its methods by providing technical information. Recent examples include the following:  A working paper on how CBO projects labor force participation rates  An appendix describing how CBO analyzed the distribution of household income  A slide deck about projections by category, along with tax parameters and effective marginal tax rates  10-year projections of economic output, prices, labor market measures, interest rates, income, and other economic factors  Details of projections and underlying parameters for Social Security, Medicare

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

62.9 62.5 57.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates or Change Economic Outlook | Page 2 Overall, the revised economic forecast shows more robust Core (exclude energy) 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.4 -0.1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-U for the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City metro area. Table 1.3 Philadelphia Metro Area Consumer Inflation Economic Outlook | Page

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

9.3 Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. December data are preliminary. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Metro Area Employment. 2020 PA Payroll Employment: Change from Prior Year Independent Fiscal Office 4 February 2021 December Level (000s) Change 2019 to 2020 Subsector Detail: PA Employment Change from Prior Year Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Metro Area Employment. Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. December 2020 data are preliminary. Excludes self-employed

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 13 15.Nov.2012 Economic Outlook  Modest growth, very slow “recovery.”  Weakness in labor market.  Consumers still “unwinding.” Rebuilding home equity. Paying down debt. Much uncertainty.  Concern now shifts to student loan through FY 2017-18: Personal Income Tax  4.1% average annual growth rate (3.7% withholding).  Assumes increasing labor force participation rate. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 46 15.Nov.2012 Revenues The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

not seasonally adjusted and do not include self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NY Federal Reserve Board, Zillow and U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey. Recent Contraction of PA Payroll Jobs 9 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. June data are preliminary. Does not include self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some Subsectors Hit Hard, but a Few Gain August 19, 2020 4 YOY Number Change (000s) YOY Percent Growth

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

of the current-year taxes collected in FY 2018-19. 5 The SAWW is reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. The ECI is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Prior Year Base (includes Act 1 Allocations) $14,640

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

on withholding trends through December. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. PA Economic Forecast Revisions Final Preliminary Projection Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 4 United States of net job creation. All data except CPI-U are preliminary and subject to revision. Sources: U.S. Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis. Recent Economic Trends Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 5 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mining-Logging

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2002_drop_report.pdf

of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Westmoreland County Executive Director: Anthony W. Salomone 1) Nonconforming IROPs must conform within 180 days of the effective date of the IROP statute or when the current labor-management contract expires, whichever is later. 2) If a local government that established an IROP fails to comply within 90

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Releases

Stand & Other Director Matthew Knittel presented an economic and revenue update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. Tags: economic , presentation , revenue Full Report Labor Market Update- August 2021 August 24, 2021 | News Stand & Other The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month. Tags: labor , market , update Full

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Links

IFO - Links IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Links U.S. Economic Indicators • Bureau of Economic Analysis • Bureau of Labor Statistics • Census Bureau • Weekly Jobless Claims • Employment Situation • Advance Retail Sales • Existing Home Sales • GDP and Profits • Monthly Personal Income • New Residential Sales • Case-Shiller Home Prices • Consumer Confidence PA Economic Indicators • Labor Force and Employment • Quarterly Personal Income • Gross State Product • Business Outlook, Philadelphia Fed State Government • Department of Labor and Industry

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx

and CA ($330m) dominate industry. ▪ Base credit rates range from 20% to 30%. ▪ Many states give higher rates for resident labor. Productions are highly mobile and consider credits. ▪ Many states to choose from. Sensitive to credit amount offered. Current credit is tax credit. ▪ State ROI is 13.1 cents. Consistent with non-industry studies. Recommendations for FPTC: ▪ Higher credit for resident labor. Bigger bang for the buck. ▪ Separate pools for TV, film and independent productions. ▪ Temporary higher credit for TV productions that

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf

330m) dominate industry.  Base credit rates range from 20% to 30%.  Many states give higher rates for resident labor. Productions are highly mobile and consider credits.  Many states to choose from. Sensitive to credit amount offered. Current credit  State ROI is 13.1 cents. Consistent with non-industry studies. Recommendations for FPTC:  Higher credit for resident labor. Bigger bang for the buck.  Separate pools for TV, film and independent productions.  Temporary higher credit for TV

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SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx

is an estimate. 4 Regional CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent is an estimate. 4 Regional CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent

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Senate_Maj_Policy_Comm_April_13_2021.pdf

seasonally adjusted. Figures for February are preliminary. YOY is year-over-year. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. April 13, 2021 Detail for Leisure and Hospitality Sector 3 YOY Number Change seasonally adjusted. Figures for February are preliminary. YOY is year-over-year. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. April 13, 2021 Leisure-Hospitality Small Business Revenues Down 55% April 13, 2021

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

Forecast 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 3 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real Gross State Product May 8 1.8 2.0 2.6 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. Primary Economic Driver: Consumer Spending  Consumers must drive economic growth. o Comprise 70%

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

percent of total state personal income tax revenues. Sales and Use Based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) and IRS, the analysis estimates that seniors effectively remit 19 to 22 percent of total state (Internal Revenue Service), Consumer Expenditure Survey for northeast consumers and consumers age 65 or older (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) and the American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau). Table 2 Pennsylvania Senior Share of Tax Revenues Estimated Senior

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

Armstrong) and northern counties (e.g., Potter, Bradford and Susquehanna) due to strong gains recorded for net earnings (earnings from labor) and dividends, interest and rent. Moreover, some of those counties (Armstrong, Bradford, Potter and Susquehanna) recorded strong income growth despite 3 displays the share of county personal income comprised of resident earnings, or active income attributable to the provision of labor services (wages, salaries and proprietor income). The top three counties were Chester (68.9%), Butler (68.1%) and Bucks (66

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

and workforce development. This was an increase of $3.9 million over the prior fiscal year.  The Department of Labor and Industry spent $12.6 million on job training programs. These funds primarily support the Apprenticeship and Training Office and Jobs Training Programs Partnerships for Regional Economic Perf. 12.1 10.7 12.4 9.1 8.0 13.0 Labor and Industry 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 12.3 12.6 Manufacturing PA 0.0 0.0

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.04.2018 5 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 62.9 62.5 Note: Professional Services includes the Management and Administrative-Waste Management sectors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. June.04.2018 6 PA Natural Gas Statistics 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Production (bcf) 4,053 4,582

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency. June.05.2018 4 Change in PA Payroll Jobs (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 62.9 62.5 Note: Professional Services includes the Management and Administrative-Waste Management sectors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. June.05.2018 5 PA Natural Gas Statistics 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Production (bcf) 4,053 4,582

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Admin., Federal Housing Finance Agency. Change in Payroll Employment (000s) June 7, 2017 12 2014 includes the Management and Administrative sectors. Data for 2017 represent the annualized pace through April. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Mortgage Debt Falls – Other Debt Increases June 7, 2017 13 Annual Growth in PA Per Capita Debt 2012 2013

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current g., corporate registrations, UCC filings and charity registrations). Electronic submission of registrations and filings should reduce de- partment labor costs and data entry errors. Policymakers should monitor the cost savings from electronic submission to confirm that all cost-saving opportunities have

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current compared to the national average of 15 percent. A closer working relationship between DHS and the Department of Labor and Industry (L&I) could facilitate tracking outcomes related to TANF and employment training. This would create opportunities to track the average

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

made to Pennsylvania residents as reported by the Social Security Administration. Table 1 decomposes Cash Income into six income categories: labor income (54% of total for 2021, includes residence adjustment), capital income (11%), business net income (8%), retirement income (10%) and non-resident individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits, (3) net capital gains, (4) rent and royalty income

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

Pennsylvania residents as reported by the Social Security Administration. Table 1 decomposes Cash Income into six income categories: labor income (56 percent of total for 2020, includes residence adjustment), capital income (9 percent), business net income (8 percent), retirement income (11 individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits, (3) net capital gains, (4) rent and royalty income, (5) dividends

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

Pennsylvania residents as reported by the Social Security Administration. Table 1 decomposes Cash Income into six income categories: labor income (57 percent of total for 2019, includes residence adjustment), capital income (12 percent), business net income (11 percent), retirement income (10 individuals, estates and trusts and pass-through business entities. Eight income categories comprise taxable income: (1) compensation for labor services (e.g., wages, salaries, options, bonuses), (2) net business profits, (3) net capital gains, (4) rent and royalty income, (5) dividends

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

from the Third District, which includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The article explores the epi- demic’s impact on labor force participation rates and economic costs. It finds that the total per capita cost of the opioid epidemic for Pennsylvanians was the fourth largest decline in the country. Private Racetrack Industry Employs 30,000 On June 7, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released establishment and employment statistics for privately owned racetracks. California had the most privately owned racetracks (85), followed by

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

July NBER Digest summarized a working paper that explored the link between student debt, other forms of credit utilization and labor market outcomes. Using a natural experiment created by recent collections lawsuits, the study followed two cohorts and found that debt additional earnings over a three-year period. Philadelphia Region Inflation Remains Steady On July 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released regional consumer price index data. The Philadelphia region CPI-U increased by 2.1% from the previous June

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

2000 An article from the Wall Street Journal discusses the April jobs report released by the U.S. Department of Labor and the factors that influenced the decline in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. The main factors mentioned include global competition, a recent decline in the size of the labor force and the retirement of baby boomers. The article also discusses the Federal Reserve’s plan of action moving forward

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

Fiscal Analysis The provision is projected to have no fiscal impact in FY 2019-20. Licenses and Fees Labor & Industry Augmentation (Act 15) The act increases the amount of inspection fees augmenting the appropriation to the Department of Labor and Industry’s Bureau of Occupational and Industrial Safety to $10 million. This provision is effective June 28, 2019 and applies to

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IFO ppt.pdf

1.2% 1.2% 0.9% January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Cause: Unexpected Labor Market Weakness 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% Budget US PA March 2010 Unemployment Rate January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal being flushed out. – Profits and Balance Sheets strong. Ready to expand. • Consumer Sentiment/Confidence key. Base much of outlook on labor market reports, especially unemployment rate. • For PA, state-local govt reductions appear to have abated for now. • Some room for

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

absolute size will have negative implications for growth. The main point of strength for the state economy is the robust labor market. For 2018, preliminary data suggest that the state economy produced more net payroll jobs than any year since 2000 that average wages grew by 3.0% compared to consumer inflation of 1.5%. The only downside to the state labor market is that nearly one-third of the net new jobs created occurred in three low-wage sectors: food service

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

data very preliminary). Retirement surge has important implications.  “Churning” reduces growth of total wages paid.  Possible contraction of labor force. But participation rates increase. No signs of “brain drain” or strong elderly inflow.  Recent data suggest a small for the time period 2011 to 2015. November 16, 2017 16 Economic Outlook Projections by IFO U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis The Economic Outlook PA economy shows solid growth through 2017 Q3.  Pace

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

oldest state based on median age (40.7 years). A Surge in Retirements During the Next Decade.  Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for 65+.  Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? New Data Suggest Int 2013-14 -26,482 Net Inflows also from RI, CT, MS Economic Outlook Projections by IFO U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 11/15/2016 15 Long-Term PA Economic Forecast Average Annual Growth Rates

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends. Demographics determine key populations, such as the potential labor force that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care Millennials (born between 1981 and 1997) and a portion of Generation Z (born between 1998 and 2015). If labor force participation rates do not increase, then this trend will constrain economic and revenue growth in the future.  The retiree cohort

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

5,566,400 jobs. December 2013 = 5,761,600 jobs. Current Employment Statistics, seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Nonfarm Employment – Year Over Year Growth Rates Source: IHS Economics, January 2014 and the Independent Fiscal Office. -300 670 19,151 -520 -2.6% Total 137,973 136,768 -1,205 -0.9% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Economics, January 2014. 6 The Pennsylvania Economy – Inflation and Gasoline Prices • Inflation is forecasted to remain low

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

cost-of-living for retirement benefit recipients is the Consumer Price Index, which is issued monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the relative cost over time of a number of consumer goods, services

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

to the first round. Employment would also increase in response to the additional spending, but the potential impact on the labor market is less certain, and any positive impact might be temporary. 1 U.S. Social Security Administration, Office of Retirement

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Testimony-02-2020.pdf

GDP, Payroll Jobs and Wages-Salaries data for 2019 are preliminary and will be revised. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve Board of New York. Forecasts by IFO

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

the individuals who operate them. The NASS publishes data on agricultural production and sales, land use, production practices, finances, farm labor and wages and other industry detail. Because data are collected every five years, the tables in this section display data

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

Insurance Insurance Regulation & Oversight 31,575 Table 1 - Special Fund Disbursements for FY 2018-19 Primary Agency Fund Name Available Labor and Industry Job Training $0 Rehabilitation Center 23,155 Liquor Control Board State Stores 2,742,307 Military and Veterans

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

71 32.01 TCJA 16.72 24.46 25.36 22.47 Penn Wharton Budget Model 5 Trade GDP (% change) Labor Services (% change) Capital Services (% change) Year High return to capital Low return to capital High return to capital Low return

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

age and retired.  Uses median characteristics from U.S. Census (income) and spending patterns from U.S. Dept. of Labor (by age and income).  Compare taxes under current law and the proposal. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

and Use Tax – The forecast projects a moderate increase in non-motor collections consistent with higher consumer confidence, an improving labor market and increased disposable income. Receipts are restrained by low inflation for taxable consumer goods. Motor vehicle receipts are projected

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

and technical factors,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2014-15 anticipate a return to growth due to improvements in the labor market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

state (Internal Revenue Service), Consumer Expenditure Survey for northeast consumers and consumers age 65 or older (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) and the American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau). Table 3 Pennsylvania Senior Share of Tax Revenues FY 2018-

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

dec apr aug 2012 dec apr aug 2013 PA US 7.3 7.7 Monthly Unemployment Rates US – declines in labor force participation rate 24 . Sept . 2013 16 PA Job Gains and Losses Since Recession thousands 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

8% 2.7% 19.8% All Items Less Energy 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-U weight represents 2011 and 2012. 12.Feb.2015 22 Average Wage Growth vs. Inflation -1.0% 0

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

5% -2.0% -0.5% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/) Demographics by State 1990-2012 Year/ Total Population Share of Population Annual Growth Rate Age

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

6 22.Jun.2015 2 PA Economic Forecasts Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. 2014 GDP is preliminary. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rank Pennsylvania 0.8% 0.5% 1.5%

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

Growth Forecast SAWW Base ECI Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Forecast by IFO using data from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. March 8, 2018 IFO School Property Tax Forecast $7,151 $7,323 $7,539 $7

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

2012.  PA is 6th oldest state based on median age (40.7 years). Surge in Retirements.  Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for 65+.  Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? Decline in working age

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

estimates that internet sales collections from all three sources total $600 million. Sources: Independent Fiscal Office, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth Rates: PIT Withholding and Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax IFO Presentation to

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Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

year-over-year growth rate. QA denotes a quarterly annualized growth rate. Sources: Independent Fiscal Office, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, October 9, 2018. Growth Rates

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platt ppt.pdf

state o GDP by metropolitan area Personal Income  Income received by persons from: o Current production (factor payments to labor and capital) o Business and government transfers 5 www.bea.gov Components of Personal Income ▪ Earnings (Place of Work) 

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs. The PBB plans track all expenditures regardless of funding source and provide data for the current

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

fined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

fined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

fined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs (e.g., IT services). The PBB plans track all costs regardless of funding source and provide

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PBB-Tax-Credits-Schedule-2019-05.pdf

Police Military & Veterans Affairs State Civil Service Commission 4 Education Human Services – Part 3 Aging PA Historical & Museum Commission Agriculture Labor and Industry 5 Drug and Alcohol Programs Insurance Revenue Executive Offices Environmental Hearing Board Conservation and Natural Resources Year Tax

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

0 Dec.13.2017 7 Final Preliminary Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. General Fund Balance Sheet 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 AAGR Beginning

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

elimination of work hours for some employees. 2019 Employment Data Revised Upward On March 16, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released updated payroll employment data for states and met- ropolitan areas. The revision increased average Pennsylvania payroll employment by

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

month in November. However, the increase in the unemployment rate was due to a positive factor—more people joining the labor force, rather than more people not working. Under these conditions, a decline of the leading index raises less concerns. State

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

by 2.4%. Jobs in Retail Sector Contract Significantly Through April 2019 On May 17, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state jobs figures for April. For the first four months of the calendar year, the data show that

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

business cycles and explores factors that increase cyclical sensitivity. While national and state unemployment rates have reached historic lows, regional labor market conditions vary greatly across the United States. In April 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.6%, but

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

analysis cites high- er inflation, declining union membership, less willingness to relocate for job-related reasons and domination of the labor market by larger firms as possible reasons. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

same time period in the prior year. That pace reflects the strongest 3-month gain since April 2012. A strong labor market and higher discretionary income from federal tax cuts are likely two relevant factors that contribute to that outcome. PA

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

our five-year budget projections in November. Related to revenues, the state economy is performing as expected. Through July, the labor market produced 62,800 net jobs (preliminary, average gain) relative to the same time period last year. That is a

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

85.0 135.3 182.5 442.5 Insurance Department 0.8 1.7 2.7 3.7 8.9 Labor & Industry 10.7 23.0 36.6 49.4 119.7 Liquor Control Board 7.7 16.4 26.1

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.9% 3.5% --- Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic and Budget Outlook, IFO (Nov. 2019), Zillow, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. CreationDate: 2019-12-02

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

General Assembly in fulfillment of that obligation. The analysis considers collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth and the following six labor unions: 1 • Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA) • Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) • Office and Professional Employees

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

2010 trough = 5,569,900. December 2012 = 5,751,500. Current Employment Statistics (CES), seasonally adjusted. Source: PA Department of Labor and Industry. PA Nonfarm Employment – Quarterly Growth Rates Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2013 PA forecast. -300,000 -250,000

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

of Business & Economics Lehigh University Representative Steven W. Cappelli District 83 Lycoming County Mr. Christ J. Zervanos Retired Director of Labor Relations Office of Administration Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative R. Ted Harhai District 58 Fayette County, Westmoreland County Ms. Paula R

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About IFO

of the Budget, research director for the Department of Revenue, and unemployment compensation tax services director for the Department of Labor and Industry. Ms. Warburton holds a M.P.A. in Environmental Policy and Natural Resource Management from the School of

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