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Labor Market Update- August 2021

The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month.

Tags: labor, market, update

Labor Market Update- July 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. 

Tags: labor, market, update

Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

Tags: labor, market, update

Labor Market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

Tags: labor, market, update

Pennsylvania Electricity Update

The IFO released a research brief that provides a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. Recent EIA data show that Pennsylvania remains the largest net exporter of electricity in the country.

09/09/2021

Labor market Update- August 2021

The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month.

08/24/2021

Labor market Update- July 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. 

07/19/2021

Labor market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

06/23/2021

Labor market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

06/03/2021

2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

Governmental Plans and Institutional Investors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 – Precedence for Future Restrictive Investment Mandates . . . . . 31 Part V. Divestment Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 – Current Total Market Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 – Investment Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 – Increased Risk and Volatility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 – Effect of Divestment on Indirect Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 – Impact on Assumed of the federal government, not that of state or local governments. • Due to the size and nature of global investment markets, uncoordinated, ad hoc divestment efforts will at best prove ineffectual and worse, may have negative consequences that are unintended or

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 April 17, 2018 This document provides an analysis of the tax proposals included in the 2018-19 Executive

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 30

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

use their total vested defined contributions to purchase single life annuities upon retirement, and that the cost approximates the average market-based pre- mium for such products. The pricing incorporates the provider’s profit margin and capital reserve requirements; therefore, the the DB component of that plan. Because the DB benefit is calculated using a formula and is not dependent on market returns, members of DB plans are largely insulated from negative fluctuations in the financial markets. Both the DC component of

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

B. Clay, Executive Director, PA Public School Employees’ Retirement System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133Testimony of Rich Hiller, Senior Vice President, Government and Religious Markets, Teachers’ Insurance Annuity Association – College Retirement Equity Fund (TIAA–CREF).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .137Testimony of Jean Friday, President, PA Alliance for Retired Americans by constitutional law and budgetary realities. II.HISTORY OF THE CRISIS After a decade of extraordinary investment gains, the financial markets spoke of the “new paradigm:” an anticipation that double-digit growth would continue indefinitely. This was the argument that supported

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

wells in operation during the year. 2 The ETR is equal to annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post-

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 14

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

wells in operation during the year. 2 The ETR is equal to annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post-

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RB-2016-02.pdf

loans or loan guarantees (the state assumes debt payments if a borrower defaults). In general, the loans receive a below‐market rate of interest, which make them attractive to borrowers. In many cases, a program may use principal and interest payments methods. A program may have a grant and/or loan component, along with an agency run component. For example, the Marketing to Attract Tourists program offers grants to non‐profit entities and oversees state‐run marketing campaigns. This report separates economic

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

wells in operation during the year. 3 The ETR is equal to annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post-

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

wells in operation during the year. 2 The ETR is equal to annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post-production

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

capital and sharply reduced loans to consumers, businesses and other financial institutions. In an effort to restore liquidity to financial markets, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 150 basis points and established special programs to make funds available the announcement merely reflected the Bureau’s determination that economic activity had reached a trough in June 2009. That trough marked the end of the declining phase of the economic cycle. The start of the “recovery” phase merely required that a

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

to the annual interest rate adopted by the board for the calculation of the normal contribution rate, based on the market value of assets, for the prior ten-year period. If the actual investment rate of return, net of fees, is the fund determined in accordance with paragraph (4) shall be no less than 70% and no more than 130% of market value. * * * (e) Experience adjustment factor.-- (1) For each fiscal year after the establishment of the accrued liability contribution rate for

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

wells in operation during the year. 2 The ETR is equal to annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post‐production

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

3) declining corporate profits. However, many underlying economic fundamentals remain solid. For Pennsylvania, positive fundamentals include:  A stable labor market. For 2015, the Pennsylvania economy generated 54,800 additional payroll jobs, up from 45,800 in 2014.  Relative to dramatically during the past decade. Moreover, growth in student loan debt shows recent signs of slowing.  A solid housing market. Data suggest that existing home sales increased by 10 to 12 percent in 2015. Due to these solid fundamentals, the

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

on the disposition of lump-sum payments from DC pension plans was compiled by LIMRA International, a major financial services marketing and information consulting -18- company, and published in the January-February 2001 issue of Profit Sharing. The article, “Survey Examines Rev. M.S.U.-D.C.L. 187 (Spring 1999). 1 Even in the absence of a downturn in the market, however, an individual will usually fare worse, over time, under a DC plan than a DB plan, for two significant

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 26

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 22

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 21

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Economic & Revenue Update Pennsylvania House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Michaela Bowers, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have

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2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal to annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post-

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us sent to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

when federal monies are removed? ▪ Is there a labor shortage? ▪ Is the uptick in inflation transitory? ▪ Is there a stock market and/or housing market bubble? Many unusual factors impact FY 2021-22 revenues ▪ Removal of federal monies | behavioral impacts | tax shifting May 26, 2021

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

than in 2015, a growth rate of 7.2%. Compared to prior years, houses are spending fewer days on the market. The average number of days on the market dropped from 85 days in 2013 to 75 days in 2016. Moreover, fewer homes are listed for sale. Housing inventory

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

to severance tax rates in other states. The ETR is equal to annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post-

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Independent Fiscal Office

Stand & Other September 09, 2021 The IFO released a research brief that provides a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. Recent EIA data show that Pennsylvania remains the largest net exporter of electricity in the country. ... (Full Report) August 2021 2021 Director Matthew Knittel presented an economic and revenue update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. ... (Full Report) Labor Market Update- August 2021 News Stand & Other August 24, 2021 The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

S corporations. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 28, 2020 3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 uses values at the closing day of the quarter, not averages for the quarter. Source: U.S. forecasts from IHS Markit. Annual PA Employment Change (000s) January 28, 2020 4 2017 2018 2019 Mining-Logging 1.7 1.9 1.0

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

0% 5.3% Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 The housing market has experienced strong gains in 2012. According to the National Association of Real- tors (NAR), the median price of an realty transfer taxes exhibited consecutive year-over-year growth for the past three months, supporting the argu- ment that the market is improving at home. Consumer attitudes and record low mortgage rates are likely fueling these trends. Freddie Mac’s primary

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 telephone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

12.00 Presentation for the PA Economy League Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office May 1, 2019 The Pennsylvania Labor Market May 1, 2019 1 Annual Growth Rate, Change or Level 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Net Jobs Created (000s) 46 is $11.60/hr. Minimum Wage: A Contentious Topic Traditional Theory: All price floors create excess supply.  For labor market, excess supply = unemployment. Fewer jobs.  Labor market fully competitive: minimum wage = higher prices. Newer Research: Moderate increases have little

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

Executive Summary | Crucial Assumptions | Recession Risk  Demographics: a contracting workforce  Economics: modest 2018 gains from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 168 very strong growth +7.6% Sales - Motor Vehicle +$44 strong growth Personal Income -$200 quarterly PIT affected by stock market Gaming Expansion +$72 see slide detail Escheats -$44 much lower remittances All Other +107 realty transfer, inheritance, GRT Total +$380

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

PDE. For later years, SAWW is projected by the Department of Labor and Industry and ECI is projected by IHS Markit with minor adjustments by the IFO. Assumes no change in minimum wage. March 17, 2021 Act 1 Index Components: Long- PDE. For later years, SAWW is projected by the Department of Labor and Industry and ECI is projected by IHS Markit with minor adjustments by the IFO. Assumes no change in minimum wage. March 17, 2021 moderate inflation strong jobs market

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

December 2024 (much is restricted)  IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong  Down 441k jobs in February from prior year  Positives: housing market, sales tax revenues show strong growth Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

better financial shape to increase spending because they have paid down debt, especially credit card debt. Gains in the stock market and housing markets for 2013 may bolster consumer confidence and give rise to a “wealth effect” that facilitates more consumer spending. However, recent

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

1,770 12.8% 0.8% 0.0% U Penn Wharton -$2,296 13.4% 0.8% 0.8% IHS Markit -$1,770 n.a. 0.1% 0.6% Tax Foundation -$1,783 69.5% 0.5% 3.4% Note: Figures Main impact: consumers have more disposable income.  Options: spend, save or pay down debt.  Occurs with delay. IHS Markit assumes 6 months. Sales tax: gain from higher disposable income and spending.  FY 17-18: +$10-$20 million | FY

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us sent to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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RB-2019-01.pdf

all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal to annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional spot price of natural gas net of post-

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 21

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 3

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

brief computes an annual average ETR. The ETR is equal to the annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product Independent Fiscal Office January 2017 2 of (1) the annual average regional price of

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

earnings, and changes in annual pay can affect consumer confidence. Employers are more likely to increase wages when the labor market is competitive, but less likely to do so if there is slack. Therefore, an acceleration or slowing of total wage followed by weak growth in 2013 (1.6%). The weak growth was likely a result of slack in the labor market, as some discouraged workers re-entered the labor force and sought employment. For 2014 and 2015, improving economic conditions and

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

ban on agricultural imports from western countries likely had spillover effects, and many EU countries that lost a major export market now offer more competition to U.S. exports, depressing dairy prices further. As shown by the graph, the average U the third quarter suggest a slight recovery of approximately five to ten cents per gallon. Looking forward, the Global Dairy Market Outlook projects that dairy prices will be volatile, but prices should generally recover as foreign dairy production slows. 4 Many

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

implications for their thinner profit margins. As a result, large banks now comprise a somewhat greater share of the Pennsylvania market, as measured by their share of total deposits. In 2006, the ten largest banks comprised 59.7 percent of the market, and by 2014 they comprised 61.6 percent. For the twenty largest banks, the respective market shares were 72.6

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics and economy  Labor market still robust | consumers drive growth  Auto loan delinquencies at all time high | mortgage refis double State budget  What and sales tax?  Tax burden rankings: how does PA compare to border states?  Natural gas: how is the market doing? February 28, 2020 3 PA Population Snapshot February 28, 2020 4 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth Age 2015

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 29

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa 120). __________________________________________________________ - This page was intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 January 4, 2013 To: The Honorable David G. Argall and The Honorable Peter Daley This report presents the

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Processing - transforming milk into a product of higher economic value in the marketplace for food or non-food use.  Marketing and Promotion - increasing the domestic or international awareness and market research for Pennsylvania dairy products, distribution of special packaging of

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

there are no available projections for education- specific employment costs for Pennsylvania, so the general nationwide ECI projection from IHS Markit is used, with adjustments by the IFO. This component of the index increases more modestly, from 3.1 in FY district weighted by property tax collections. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsyl- vania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Weighted index calculated by the IFO. Act 1 Exceptions Independent Fiscal Office February 2020 4 example, exceptions valued at $54

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

For the ECI, there are no available projections for education-specific employment costs, so the general ECI projection from IHS Markit is used, with adjustments by the IFO. This component of the index increases more modestly, from 2.6 in FY district weighted by property tax collections. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsyl- vania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Weighted index calculated by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Office March 2019 4 exceptions approved and exceptions used in the previous

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic May 26, 2020 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change IHS Markit 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.3% -7.3% 5.1% 4.6% Wages-Salaries 4.6% -9.0% 7 11.5 9.3 n.a. Net Payroll Jobs 1.4% -9.4% 3.0% n.a. Note: IHS Markit forecast released May 12. CBO released May 19. Large Injection of Federal Monies May 26, 2020 5 Estimate Estimate Individual

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RB-2018-01.pdf

For the ECI, there are no available projections for education-specific employment costs, so the general ECI projection from IHS Markit is used. This component of the index increases more modestly, from 3.0 in FY 2019-20 to 3.2 district weighted by property tax collections. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsyl‐ vania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Weighted index calculated by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Of Ðice January 2018 4 PDE issues annual reports detailing the exceptions

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

entire year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 29, 2019 3 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 is close for Jan. 28, 2019. Non-GDP growth rates are year-over-year. Source: U.S. forecasts from IHS Markit. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal. Annual PA Employment Growth (000s) January 29, 2019

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. National Forecasts Are More Pessimistic June 22, 2020 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change IHS Markit 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.3% -7.3% 5.1% 4.6% Wages-Salaries 4.6% -9.0% 7 11.5 9.3 n.a. Net Payroll Jobs 1.4% -9.4% 3.0% n.a. Note: IHS Markit forecast released May 12. CBO released May 19. Large Injection of Federal Monies June 22, 2020 5 Estimate Estimate Individual

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

time period in the prior year. That pace reflects the strongest 3-month gain since April 2012. A strong labor market and higher discretionary income from federal tax cuts are likely two relevant factors that contribute to that outcome. PA Consumer conflict with recent federal tax cuts. The second scenario highlights increased debt as a contrib- utor to emerging or “bubbling” markets and how those markets could react to a sudden tightening of the financial market. The final scenario discusses the trade

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

90% of total electricity generated in 2006. While nuclear energy has maintained a relatively stable share of the electricity generation market since 2006, coal’s share has dropped precipitously. Over the last decade, coal’s share of electricity generation in Pennsylvania gas surpassed coal as the second largest source, representing 32% of electricity generated. The rise of natural gas in the market for electricity generation is due to its competitive price, efficiency advantages and lower production costs. As natural gas comprises a

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

FYTD $25,897 $25,322 $574 Growth 0.7% 2.5% -42.9% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA HOUSING MARKET SOLID The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors (PAR) publishes quarterly data on home prices and sales completed by realtors in the but they do capture the majority of home sales and provide useful information regarding the current state of the housing market. The PAR data reveal very strong growth in home sales for 2013 (12.5%), followed by weakness in 2014 (0

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

Americans to reevaluate their present living situation. Current homeowners want larger homes and more millennials are entering the home buying market. The desire for more household space combined with low mortgage rates drives demand in an already competitive housing market. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales reached a new 14- year high in the U

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

Philadelphia Plan One of Most At-Risk The Center for State & Local Government Excellence published an article detailing public pension market returns for fiscal year (FY) 2020 and potential impacts going forward. Listed as one of the 20 “worst-off” plans 58.8% but will end the fiscal year with only 5.2 years of benefit payments on hand. Nationally, public market fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic have heavily impacted pension returns. Analysis from Milliman in April showed that during 2020

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

which lead to larger mortgage payments, may lead buyers to consider lower-priced homes or dissuade them from entering the market. However, a Zillow survey found that homeowners’ willingness to move is expected to improve after the COVID-19 vaccine distribution could boost both demand and supply in the upcoming months, and new listings would enhance inventory in a tight housing market. 2020 Home Prices and Low Interest Rates Drove High Levels of Refinancing Rapidly rising home prices, which provides homeowners with

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast.  General weakness. All forecasts underperform.  An exception: PA labor market posts solid gains.  Recent U.S. data confirm weak PA trends: 2017 Q1 Real GDP +0.7% growth, +0 IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

and Budget Outlook Slide 13 15.Nov.2012 Economic Outlook  Modest growth, very slow “recovery.”  Weakness in labor market.  Consumers still “unwinding.” Rebuilding home equity. Paying down debt. Much uncertainty.  Concern now shifts to student loan debt Revenues Base Year Net Revenues and Expenditures as % of State Personal Income Summary of Findings  Revenues  Weak labor market. Slow wage growth.  Tax base erosion: sales and use, cigarettes, gaming?  Federal tax policy: income, payroll and capital

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

More licenses issued for both sports wagering and iGaming. These gains are temporary.  A significant decline in the stock market for 2018 Q4 reduced personal income tax estimated payments. The IFO also speculates that taxpayers likely had a large stock suggest policymakers should expect slower economic growth. They are as follows:  There has been significant volatility in the stock market. Consumers are more reluctant to spend under such conditions. The latest readings of the consumer confidence index reveal that confidence

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

Q3 and Q4 based on adjusted withholding. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor Force is change from prior year. Labor market data are not seasonally adjusted. U.S. Labor Productivity is for All Nonfarm Businesses and is a quarterly annualized rate 21, 2021 10 Source: Various state and federal agency websites. See IFO Official Revenue Estimate Methodology (June 2020). Disconnect: Labor Market vs Other PA Indicators January 21, 2021 11 Economic Negatives Economic Positives Payroll Jobs -460k 2020 Q4 Cash Income +8

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

UA R Y 2 1 2 0 1 7 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 February 13, 2017 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

UA R Y 2 1 2 0 1 7 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 February 13, 2017 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently

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Releases

09, 2021 | News Stand & Other The IFO released a research brief that provides a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. Recent EIA data show that Pennsylvania remains the largest net exporter of electricity in the country. Tags: electricity , energy , gas Full Report August 2021 Other Director Matthew Knittel presented an economic and revenue update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. Tags: economic , presentation , revenue Full Report Labor Market Update- August 2021 August 24, 2021 | News Stand & Other The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

impacts are tracked separately and discussed later in this document. Table 3 displays the economic forecast recently published by IHS Markit for Pennsylvania and the U.S. The state forecast reflects the projected impact of the COVID-19 virus, but includes 7.9 4.3 Corporate Domestic Profits 2.4% -1.2% -32.8% 78.0% 1.9% Table 3 IHS Markit Economic Forecasts Source: IHS Markit state forecast released March 28, 2020 and U.S. forecast released April 4, 2020. Independent

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

permanent and temporary)  Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor market and consumer sales May 20, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections May 20, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 deposits will be received  May sales tax  June personal income and corporate net income (2nd payment) Does labor market maintain strength?  Some deceleration in growth  April jobs numbers look solid, withholding growth stable at 4% Economic factors

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

a limited discussion regarding whether the infusion of significant federal monies into the state economy, when combined with temporary labor market conditions attributable to the pandemic, is conducive to raising the state minimum wage from its current level of $7.25 in July 2021 or July 2022? Which enactment date would cause less short- and long-term disruption to the labor market? Much will hinge upon outcomes in late summer and fall when the extra UC benefits expire, federal stimulus is removed

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

economic development projects through partnerships with Local Development Districts, Small Business Development Centers and other entities, assisting businesses through workforce, market and real-estate development efforts. State Loan Programs In FY 2019-20, the Commonwealth issued $98.6 million in loans 0 5.6 PA Dairy Investment Program (CFA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 5.5 Marketing to Attract Tourists (advertising) 0.0 1.0 1.5 1.4 2.2 5.5 BFTDA - Venture Investment 1

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

areas in the future.  In certain cases, the state spending could be viewed as a way to correct local market failures, where private incentives and returns are insufficient to result in outcomes that would, on net, be positive if all of the gains from the investment, and much of the benefit accrues to the general public. In the case of market failures, targeted government spending can lead to more efficient outcomes for the residents of the state compared to outcomes produced

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

wells located on a landowner’s property. Pennsylvania law mandates a minimum royalty rate of 12.5 percent of the market value of the sale. 1 Some contracts allow firms to deduct post-production costs from gross revenues prior to the gas from the wellhead to the point of sale and include costs related to gathering, processing and transporting gas to markets. Firms do not publish the dollar amount of royalties paid to Pennsylvania landowners, and those amounts must be inferred from

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

from county assessment offices with help from the County Commissioners Association. Counties providing data comprised approximately 81% of real estate market value (2016). Computations for missing or incomplete entries. 5 March 8, 2018 Homestead Survey Results Estimates based on survey (statewide Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Forecast by IFO using data from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. March 8, 2018 IFO School Property Tax Forecast $7,151 $7,323 $7,539 $7,781 $8,042 $8,319

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

Includes all expenditures in $ millions. General Fund Appropriations (2019-20) January 23, 2020 15 Activities PA First Keystone Communities GGO Marketing to Attract Tourists Local Mun. Emerg. Relief Manu-facturing PA Other Total Comm. & Citizen Develop. $0.0 $21.1 $0 capita spend state campaign (9 cents per resident) ▪ U.S. average is $1.59 | PA share of U.S. tourism market declines over time Independent Authorities (CFA, PIDA, PEDFA and others) ▪ For FY 18-19, $ 540m in grants, loans, investments and

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 June 18, 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal to annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post-production

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

brief computes an annual average ETR. The ETR is equal to the annual impact fee revenues divided by the total market value of unconventional natural gas production. The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post‐production

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News New Data Show Strong PA Labor Market On May 23, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state and county employment data for the fourth quarter published state employment and wage income trends will be based. The data show a clear strengthening of the Pennsylvania labor market through 2017 in terms of net job gains. The average level of annualized net job gains during the year was

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

credit card, auto and student loan debt more than offset a slight decline in mortgage debt. Second, the PA labor market could be weak, generating few jobs and minor gains in take home pay. However, data for January to April 2017 suggest a strong labor market that created 63,000 net new jobs (annualized rate), compared to 52,200 for CY 2016. Moreover, withholding tax revenues

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MER-2015-03.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Mar‐14 Jan‐ with low incomes, and becoming more so. 5 One possible reason is the large influx of individuals into the rental market, due to declining homeownership rates. Therefore, Penn‐ sylvanians aged 20‐30, who typically earn less than the statewide median, are

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MER-2014-01.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jan‐13 Nov‐ unemployment rate since January 2009 (6.8%). Viewing this Ðigure exclusively, it would ap‐ pear that the Commonwealth’s labor market is Ðinally recovering. However, the labor news is not all posi‐ tive. The BLS also reported that the number of

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Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Job Gains Remain in Holding Pattern This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. For 2021 at an all-time high and quit rates at the highest level since 2000. Both factors reflect a tight labor market and strong demand for workers, which does not align with ongoing job loss or the large number of UC claims

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Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf

Payroll Jobs Record Strong Gains in June This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. Based on the latest employment options, that issue will likely moderate as federal benefits approach expiration and former childcare workers return to the labor market. Labor Market Update July 2021 Apr May Jun Apr May Jun Total Employment -446.9 -432.3 -394.5 49

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jackson ppt.pdf

consumption gains to about 2%. • Fiscal policies will tighten, although the timing and scope is uncertain. • A recovery in housing markets is key to more robust economic growth in 2013-15. • The Eurozone sovereign-debt crisis is the biggest threat to will lead the recovery, reflecting a shift from owner- occupied to rental housing. A Much-Delayed Recovery in US Housing Markets 15 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 May 1, 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

and 2020 Q4 are estimates by IFO. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor Force is change from prior year. Labor market data are not seasonally adjusted. U.S. Labor Productivity is for All Nonfarm Businesses and is a year-over-year strong, includes $100m from PPP All Tobacco 693 -0.3% Inheritance 707 -1.5% Realty Transfer 371 12.4% housing market very strong All Other 1,186 -1.8% Note: Millions of dollars. Growth rates adjusted to reverse the shift of

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

reve- nue, trailing only Nevada ($10,860 million). The state also claimed three of the top 20 U.S. casino markets in 2012: Philadelphia (ranked sixth with $1,167 million), the Poconos (ranked ninth with $902 million) and Pittsburgh (ranked sev- enteenth with $636 million). Philadelphia also led all U.S. racetrack casino markets with $835 million in revenue. Pennsylvania’s casinos also generate significant tax revenue. The state led the nation in 2012

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

and referenced indicators relating to the status of the economy. However, this metric provides an incomplete picture of the labor market and should be viewed in con- junction with other employment and economic data to ensure a more comprehensive (and accurate time positions, are accepting part- time positions. In this way, underemployment offers a better representation of slack in the labor market. The graph below shows the Pennsylvania unemployment rate (U3) alongside the Pennsylvania underemployment rate (U6) since the fourth quarter of

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

5.1% 5.3% 5.6% Snapshot: Consumer Savings Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Recently, the stock and housing markets have rec- orded strong gains, increasing consumers’ percep- tions of their personal wealth. From March 2012 to March 2013, the of 2013. These changes likely affect consumers’ saving or spending decisions. Research suggests that for each $1 change in stock market wealth, consump- tion rises or falls about 2.5 cents. Changes in housing wealth tend to have a greater effect

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

mer, when the household survey found that the number of residents employed declined in four consecutive months (April - July). June marked the first month since July 2011 that the Pennsylvania unemployment rate increased. Many analysts have made comparisons to last summer, when labor market growth also decel- erated. Are the underlying dynamics the same? The unemployment rate is based on the US De- partment

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

of the calculations. The projections are primarily based on the experience of the REHP and overall changes in the healthcare market. The calculation of the contribution rate to be charged to participating employers is designed to include all healthcare and administra- Historical and Museum Commission Insurance Labor and Industry Liquor Control Board Lt. Governor's Office Military and Veterans Affairs Milk Marketing Board PA Emergency Management Agency PA Gaming Control Board PA Higher Education Assistance Agency PA Infrastructure Investment Authority PA Municipal

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2002_drop_report.pdf

these accounts will be held for a short period of time, they will tend to be more sensitive to abrupt market changes. For this reason, a fixed interest rate or a smoothed market rate based upon the earnings of the pension plan is sometimes used. Distribution Options. DROP accounts are often paid in

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

health-benefits • What benefits are included in prevalent plans? • What benefits must be supplemented? • Cost vs comprehensiveness • How will the market respond? EHB EHB EHB More ACA implementation coming… • Delivery system reforms – Value based purchasing demonstrations – Medical homes – Health homes – ACOs care – Quality reporting 18 State Implementation Priorities 1. Be strategic with the insurance exchange 2. Regulate the commercial health insurance market effectively 3. Simplify & integrate eligibility systems 4. Expand provider & system capacity 5. Attend to benefit design 6. Promote care coordination

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us sent to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 23

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 29

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SR2017-06.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE IFO estimated the missing values based on data from other sources. The responding counties represented approximately 80 percent of the market value of taxable property in Pennsylvania for 2016, and we believe the survey provides a solid basis for analysis. While

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

the first half of FY 2012‐13.  Trends in the RTT can point to underlying trends in the housing market (price or volume), which can have implications for overall economic growth in PA. 12.3 12.4 13.1 13 sector spills over to the rest of the economy (e.g., wealth effects). • Flat profits forecast translates into minimal stock market gains. • Lower debt burdens support additional consumer spending. • Continued Eurozone weakness. Potential housing crisis realized. FY 2013‐14 Outlook Economic

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RB-2015-02-annual_vs_lifetime_ETR.pdf

to one (or both) of the following tax bases:  Value. The rate is expressed as a percentage of the market value of gas extracted.  Volume. The rate is expressed in cents per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of gas extracted rates and special provisions are taken into account. For severance taxes, the effective tax rate is equal to: taxes paid ÷ market value of gas. There are two ways to measure the effective tax rate. The appropriate measure will depend upon the

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Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf

Thursday, November 13, 2014; 1:30 p.m. Location: Harrisburg University of Science and Technology Conference Center, Fourteenth Floor 326 Market Street, Harrisburg (enter from Market Street, Fourth Street or Strawberry Square) Agenda: A detailed discussion by IFO staff on the Commonwealth’s structural imbalance and

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

25% • PSERS: 7.5%  Investment earnings. • Assumed 7.5% long-term rate of return. Actual earnings are based on market conditions. • Significant losses during the 2008-2009 recession.  Employer contributions. • Determined actuarially after accounting for fund liabilities, employee contributions PA liquor system. 7/15/2015 16 Pension Proposals Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 7/15/2015

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

25% • PSERS: 7.5%  Investment earnings. • Assumed 7.5% long‐term rate of return. Actual earnings are based on market conditions. • Significant losses during the 2008‐2009 recession.  Employer contributions. • Determined actuarially after accounting for fund liabilities, employee contributions 15 to 2019‐20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230‐8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 3/26/2015

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

25% • PSERS: 7.50%  Investment earnings. • Assumed 7.5% long‐term rate of return. Actual earnings are based on market conditions. • Significant losses during the 2008‐2009 recession.  Employer contributions. • Determined actuarially after accounting for fund liabilities, employee contributions 6/30 Annual Increase Cumulative Increase from FYE 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230‐8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 4/11/2016

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation • Solid Labor Market • Some Wage Weakness Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 Q2 2015 0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Expenditures Revenues Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230‐8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us May 13, 2016

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

4.2%.  Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy.  Corporate base expansion enhances revenues.  Tight labor market sustains wage growth.  Inflation accelerates above 2%. Helps pricing power. June.12.2018 2 Optimistic Revenue Outlook Wage income  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. Strong Labor Market = Income Gains June.12.2018 3 PA Consumer Income vs. Spending 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Energy 3.14 $1.43 $1.53 $2.44 $2.62 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Tax on Market Value $574 $952 $1,017 $1,216 Less Impact Fee $225 $240 $262 $285 Net Tax Revenues $349 $712 $755

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT.pdf

DRAFT REPORT: Data may change prior to public release. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Kathleen Analyst II Staff Contact: khall@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Analyst I Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT.pdf

Draft Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley Analyst I Staff Contact: lmclaughlin@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa 1269, No.120). - This page was intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 May 28, 2013 To: The Honorable Senator John C. Rafferty This report presents the results from

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

mills), moderate (15 mills) and higher (20 mills). Assumes full elimination of school district property tax. Assumes assessed value equals market value of home and is $200,000 for all cases. Working earns $80,000 of taxable income. Retired earns $60 benefit to renters.  If property taxes are 10% of rent, then rent falls by ~-3%. Results sensitive to local market conditions.  Will vary considerably across state.  More developed = more benefit to homeowners/landlords. 19.May.2017 Homeowners vs

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

is out | vaccinations available to nearly all ▪ Job openings rate highest on record | quit rate highest since 2000 ▪ Implies labor market is“tight”| highly unusual given pool of available workers Two studies: extra UC benefits have minor impact on employment ▪ San benefits would have been better (e.g., $200-$100-$0) June 17, 2021 8 Potential Asset Bubbles: Stock and Housing Markets June 17, 2021 9 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 2019.2

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

month with only CTC payments, no federal UC Higher inflation unlikely to be transitory ▪ Delayed response in housing and rental markets ▪ Pressures remain in both markets in short-term due to lags ▪ Food prices beginning to rise rapidly | continued supply chain issues ▪ Strong wage gains show

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

Trends May Limit Job Expansion A December 18 article from the Wall Street Journal notes that the U.S. job market continues to exceed expecta- tions, but demographic trends will likely cause the U.S. to run out of individuals to cycles and explores factors that increase cyclical sensitivity. While national and state unemployment rates have reached historic lows, regional labor market conditions vary greatly across the United States. In April 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.6%, but ranged

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

For the U.S., annualized growth for the third quarter was 5.1%. - December 2018 - National News U.S. Housing Market in Third Largest Boom Based on data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a December 7 article written by it is not possible to know when the boom will end, but there are signs of weakness in the current market as leading indicators for building permits and sales of new and existing homes have declined in recent months. U.S

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

FYTD $3,988 $3,930 $58 Growth -0.4% -0.4% 1.1% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA ELECTRICITY MARKET TRENDS The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases an Electricity Monthly Update 1 , which provides historical revenues, retail sales rate of 2.4% per annum. Sales from the first half of 2016 reveal a downturn in the PA electricity market. Total retail sales of electricity declined by 5.7% compared to the same period in 2015, as demand contracted in

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us The credit is equal to (1) five percent of the lesser of the sale price or the fair market value up to a maximum of $32,000, or (2) ten percent of the gross rental income in each of the first

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

July. The large price increase is the result of greater demand for rental vehicles and supply constraints in new vehicle markets, rather than a rebound from the previous summer (prices fell just 3.3% from July 2019 to July 2020). Recently most renters enter leases for at least one full year. Landlords may also be hesitant to raise prices to the market rate for tenants who renew leases if they are current with their monthly payments. Hence, housing and rental price pressures

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MER-2015-04.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Apr‐14 Feb‐ program in the next three months, then oil‐related sanctions could be lifted. This would usher more oil into world markets, further depress‐ ing prices in 2016. 1 In their baseline reference case, the EIA estimates that the price of crude

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MER-2015-02.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Feb‐14 Dec‐ for February is delayed due to the annual bench‐ marking that BLS completes every year.) Although the Commonwealth’s labor market has regained the total number of jobs lost during the recession, the composi‐ tion of new jobs created are somewhat

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MER-2014-11.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nov‐13 Sep‐ Second, tighter lending standards, student loan debt and relatively Ðlat wages may prevent younger, Ðirst‐ time homebuyers from entering the market. For cur‐ rent homeowners, there may be a “lock‐in” effect that discourages sales. These homeowners may be reluctant to

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MER-2013-12.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan - Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dec-12 Oct- in 2013 Q3. In addition, consumers have experienced positive wealth effects due to consistent gains in the housing and stock markets. Consumers are more confident and, as a result, have shifted back spending to big ticket items. In 2013 Q3, consum-

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. For 2021 traditional) per week. The IFO will update these data once the May jobs figures are released later this month. Labor Market Update June 2021 Feb Mar Apr Feb Mar Apr Total Employment -443.5 -431.5 -444.5 42.8 39

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Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf

Continue to Recover, but Significant Shortfall Remains This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data for that assessment as traditional UC claims fell by roughly 18%, but only 5% for PUA. Continued on next page. Labor Market Update August 2021 May June July May June July Total Payroll Employment -432.3 -389.1 -362.5 44.8

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IFO ppt.pdf

2% 1.2% 0.9% January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Cause: Unexpected Labor Market Weakness 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% Budget US PA March 2010 Unemployment Rate January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office flushed out. – Profits and Balance Sheets strong. Ready to expand. • Consumer Sentiment/Confidence key. Base much of outlook on labor market reports, especially unemployment rate. • For PA, state-local govt reductions appear to have abated for now. • Some room for guarded

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends May 15, 2019 2 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 Tax 2,456 769 -1,687 -68.7% Note: Millions of dollars. PIT is personal income tax. The Pennsylvania Labor Market May 15, 2019 5 Annual Growth Rate, Change or Level 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Net Jobs Created (000s) 46

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE including: marijuana substance abuse treatment, workplace incidents involving marijuana, drug-free workplace policies and unemployment, home growing and marijuana grey market enforcement, and certain long-term negative health impacts due to increased marijuana use. 3 See Benjamin Hansen et al., “Early

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Represented Employees. 2 Other includes Environmental Hearing Board, Ethics Commission, Governor's Office, Health Care Cost Containment, Lieutenant Governor, Milk Marketing Board, PA Infrastructure Investment, PA Municipal Retirement Board, PA Port Authorities, PA School Employees Retirement System (PSERS), Patient Safety Authority

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

GPNP Conference June 2011 1.8% June 2012 2.7% Feb 2012 7.5% But, Some Positive Fundamentals  Housing Market  Forecast: 2011 is bottom of PA housing market.  Mortgage rates at historic lows.  PA mortgage delinquencies declining rapidly.  Consumers  Vehicle sales remain strong. Some

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www.ifo.state.pa.us 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 8

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

capital owners will benefit from tax rate reductions (or bear the burden of a tax increase). However, as firms and markets adjust to the rate cut over time, workers and consumers could also benefit. In the recent debate regarding the Tax This report was motivated by a request from Representatives Jason Ortitay and Martina White. Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgments: Rachel Flaugh

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

encourage risk taking •U.S. public plans calculate liabilities and contributions using earnings assumption based on plan portfolio rather than market rates (unlike U.S. private plans, generally unlike other countries). Higher earnings assumption: •Keeps contributions lower in the short run poorly if can’t-happen-again events like the Great Recession, the dot-com bust, or the 1973-1974 bear market continue to happen or if there is a sustained period of low returns. •Already public pension plans generally have bad

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

Special Session 1, P.L. 1873, No. 1, known as the “Taxpayer Relief Act.” 4 The aid ratio is the market value/personal income aid ratio (MV/PI AR) calculated in accordance with section 2501(14) and (14.1) of the available projections for education-specific employment costs for Pennsylvania, so the U.S. ECI for all private workers from IHS Markit is used, with adjustments by the IFO. This component of the index remains relatively flat, increasing from 2.7 in

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

ratio will continue to decline once consumers absorb the 2013 tax increases and spend- ing cuts. A rapidly improving housing market and strong stock market gains should bolster consumer confidence and thereby encourage additional borrowing and spend- ing. This will be an important outcome if

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Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 September 27, 2016 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore

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Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 1 February 2, 2017 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro

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Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 September 27, 2016 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

the first round. Employment would also increase in response to the additional spending, but the potential impact on the labor market is less certain, and any positive impact might be temporary. 1 U.S. Social Security Administration, Office of Retirement and

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

least 9 current districts. 16.Dec.2014 18 Findings Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717)230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 16.Dec.2014

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Sen_Maj_Pol_Comm_Brain_Drain_Workshop_04_30_2019.pdf

Student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania April 30, 2019 Submitted by: Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 1 Year Population Estimate Population Change 1 Births Deaths Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 March 7, 2017 The Honorable Patrick M. Browne Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main Capitol Building

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SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

Use Tax – The forecast projects a moderate increase in non-motor collections consistent with higher consumer confidence, an improving labor market and increased disposable income. Receipts are restrained by low inflation for taxable consumer goods. Motor vehicle receipts are projected to

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

technical factors,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2014-15 anticipate a return to growth due to improvements in the labor market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

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Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf

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Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf

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Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf

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Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf

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Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf

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RB-2015-04.pdf

not retain employment. Independent Fiscal Of Ðice November 2015 7 Rachel Carson State Of Ðice Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 E‐mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Independent Fiscal Of

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa

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PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

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PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

billion for FFY 2013 (US total). Debt Ceiling debate – possibility of gov’t shut down. o Temporary hit to financial markets. o More lasting hit to consumer confidence. Monetary Policy – start of the Fed “taper”? o In June, Fed says taper

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

1% 99.3% of growth age 65 or older 10 Economic Outlook A Reversion to Historical Growth The Pennsylvania Labor Market 3.Dec.2014 11 Economic Forecast Provides Neutral Benchmark. • Assumes growth rates return to historical averages. • Reflects non-recession years

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

state.pa Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230-8293 Author: Mark Ryan Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-07-13 20:27:29 Creator

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

5.5% Expenditures Revenues 8.Jun.2016 22 Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230‐8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us Thank You 23

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

patterns. Major Take Aways 32 12.May.2016 Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717)230‐8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us Thank You 33

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-10-12 19

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

state.pa.us/ Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 (717) 230-8293 August.08.2018 26 Thank You Author: Lesley Rompalo CreationDate: 2018-08-08

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PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

temporary)  Income shifting and gaming expansion (temporary) Economic fundamentals remain solid, but decelerating  Evidence in labor and housing markets June 11, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections June 11, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

remote working  Gasoline consumption down ~10% | ~$1.5 billion spending (redirected)  Excess supply in commercial real estate rental market  Less business travel, accommodation and dry cleaning services New spend patterns, more on-line sales and productivity gains = job

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PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Request_May_4_2021.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

remote working  Gasoline consumption down ~10% | ~$1.5 billion spending (redirected)  Excess supply in commercial real estate rental market  Less business travel, accommodation and dry cleaning services New spend patterns, more on-line sales and productivity gains = job

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OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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novak ppt.pdf

11 PA US Percent Unemployment • Unemployment rates remain high. • PA is below the national rate. • Recession in all areas was marked by large increases. Shrinking Government • Government spending usually increases as stabilizers kick-in • The recession was too long for the

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NewsStand_2019_September.pdf

in home prices. The article states that homebuyers can expect lower typical mortgage payments through June 2020. According to IHS Markit, personal disposable income increased for the first two quarters of 2019. Moderate income gains and falling mortgage rates have reduced

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

Excluding consumer purchases related to en- ergy, the CPI-U increase was 1.9%. - March 2019- National News Tight Labor Market Begins to Translate to Wage Gains On March 8, the U.S. Department of Labor released average hourly earnings for

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

NBER Digest summarized a working paper that explored the link between student debt, other forms of credit utilization and labor market outcomes. Using a natural experiment created by recent collections lawsuits, the study followed two cohorts and found that debt cancellation

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

homeowners rely less on the value of their home to access new credit and home- buyers return to the mortgage market after a surge in all-cash home purchases in the years following the last recession. Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2019-

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Labor Market Slows in 2019 Q1 On April 19, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state employment data for March

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

cites high- er inflation, declining union membership, less willingness to relocate for job-related reasons and domination of the labor market by larger firms as possible reasons. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

Economic Development for their assistance in providing the information necessary to complete this report. Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgments: Tessa Dorr

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

are we? How did we get here? Demographic Outlook.  Suggests economic and budgetary challenges. Economic Outlook.  Solid labor market, but consumption tepid. Budget Outlook.  Revenue and expenditures. Pensions. Gaming. General Fund Balance Sheet Growth Rates 13-14 14-

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

sharp decline in March 2019. Unex- pectedly low mortgage rates are likely providing support to the state and national housing markets. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE AUGUST 2019 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Growth rates computed from same time period in previous year

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

at an annual rate of roughly 2.7% in the second quarter of 2017. Analysts expect that the tight labor market could provide a further boost to wage growth during the next few quarters. PA PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH STEADY General Fund

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

recorded a net inflow. Relative to Pennsylvania, these states both generally have higher tax rates and a less affordable housing market. Despite the tendency for individuals with a higher education to move to urban or coastal areas, this inflow could reflect

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

international trends also affect the potential for recession. These include: (1) the deceleration of growth in China and other emerging markets, (2) the U.K.’s vote to exit the European Union and (3) appreciation of the U.S. dollar, which

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

well below its pre-recession share of roughly 10%. However, sales have picked up recently, due to the improving housing market, and have been particularly strong through April 2016 (9.2% annual growth). One of the larger retailers in this sector

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

Trend In 2014 Labor force participation rates (LFPRs) are often viewed as a measure of the strength of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines the LFPR as the labor force as a share of the civilian non-

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

by 13.8 percent relative to the prior year. This strength is likely the result of months of strong stock market performance prior to the outbreak. Gaming tax collections were impacted by the March closure of all Pennsylvania casinos. The impact

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

index used in the CPI-U computation (most is imputed rent to current homeowners) and actual conditions in the housing market. For example, the latest data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency show that the home price index increased by 12

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

Data for May will be released on June 25 and the IFO expects further wage gains due to tight labor market conditions in many sectors. PA COVID-19 Job Loss Disproportionately Impacted Young and Female Workers The U.S. Census Bureau

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

are not imputed. Moreover, analysts have noted the disconnect between the Shelter component and very strong gains in the housing market. Impact Fee Revenues Could Increase Significantly in 2022 As noted in a WSJ article, natural gas prices have risen to

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Q4 forecast from IHS Economics. 25.Jan.2017 8 U.S. Profits and Business Investment 25.Jan.2017 9 Financial Markets Recover Note: Dividend data for 2016 Q4 is an estimate. Sources: Yahoo Finance and Factset. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

Does This Matter? • Higher Personal Income Tax revenues. • Bolsters consumer confidence. Encourages spending. • A sign of economic recovery. Less labor market slack? 28.Jan.2015 12 Low Inflation = Real Wage Growth (?) 28.Jan.2015 13 Average Wage vs. Inflation ‐1.0%

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MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MER-2015-06.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan - Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jun-14 Apr-

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MER-2015-01.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan - Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jan-14 Nov-

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MER-2014-12.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dec‐13 Oct‐

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MER-2014-10.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Oct‐13 Aug‐

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MER-2014-09.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sept‐13 Jul‐

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MER-2014-08.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Aug‐13 Jun‐

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MER-2014-07.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jul‐13 May‐

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MER-2014-06.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jun‐13 Apr‐

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MER-2014-05.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. May‐13 Mar‐

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MER-2014-04.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Apr‐13 Feb‐

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MER-2014-03.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Mar‐13 Jan‐

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MER-2014-02.pdf

Association of Realtors. 5/ University of Michigan ‐ Survey of Consumers. 6/ Institute of Supply Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Market data compiled by the Wall Street Journal. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Feb‐13 Dec‐

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MER-2013-11.pdf

assert that the abundance of cheap natural gas in Pennsylvania creates a comparative advantage for the industry and its downstream markets. Currently, data suggest that the petrochemical manufacturing industry employs relatively few Pennsylvanians. For 2012, data from the U.S. Bu-

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Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf

only a few years after the original purchase. A firm that sells a four-year old vehicle with a fair market value of $10,000 would need to report a $10,000 gain if no basis remained. However, if the firm

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Letter_to_JSGC.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 March 13, 2017 Mr. Glenn Pasewicz Executive Director Joint State Government Commission 108 Finance Building Harrisburg

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

by category, along with tax parameters and effective marginal tax rates  10-year projections of economic output, prices, labor market measures, interest rates, income, and other economic factors  Details of projections and underlying parameters for Social Security, Medicare, student

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ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

performance of the Pennsylvania economy in the first six months of 2014, the revisions could prove to be conservative. However, marked improvement in jobs and wages, increased business investment and higher consumption of taxable goods and services would signal more sustainable

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IFO_Letter_to_the_SCC.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

five-year budget projections in November. Related to revenues, the state economy is performing as expected. Through July, the labor market produced 62,800 net jobs (preliminary, average gain) relative to the same time period last year. That is a solid

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

1% | PA at +4.5% (prelim)  PA wage growth highest since 2007 | Lowest UE rate on record PA labor market shows signs of slowing  Minor deceleration of wage growth in 2019 Q3 (prelim)  Net job gains down notably

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 March 7, 2017 The Honorable Stan Saylor Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg

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FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Pennsylvania is the top exporter of electricity in the

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

data are stronger than expected  Despite large job losses, only a moderate decline in total wages paid  Housing market fares decently | but renters struggle Steady employment gains since April low | can it continue?  45% of job losses in

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DOC_Performance_Measures_Final.pdf

c t i o n s Independent Fiscal Office INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 February 23, 2017 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: In September

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant  Significant monies now available for certain spending priorities next year Labor market down, but nearly all other economic indicators strong  Down 472k jobs in December from prior year  IFO projects

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CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf

hold a 1:30 p.m. briefing on the release in the fourteenth floor conference center of Harrisburg University, 326 Market Street. The session is open to the public. After the briefing, a report discussing the revenue projections and Pennsylvania’s

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2:00 p.m. Location: 14 th Floor Conference Center, Harrisburg University, 326 Market Street, Harrisburg The new revenue estimates include: (1) a mid-year revision to the IFO’s fiscal year (FY) 2015-

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 January 12, 2017 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore

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ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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ACN_SB1_technical_corrections_2017_06_05.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 June 5, 2017 The IFO made the following technical changes to the Actuarial Note Transmittal for

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2019-Pub-2.pdf

Presenters Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 1:30 pm Harrisburg University of Science and Technology Conference Center, 14th Floor 326 Market Street, Harrisburg PA The IFO will present the results from its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth

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2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Time: Wednesday, December 9, 2015; 2:00 p.m. Location: 2 nd Floor Auditorium Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street, Harrisburg Agenda: A detailed discussion by IFO staff on the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

ing that Pennsylvania has gained 21,200 nonfarm jobs since the start of 2013. Although the Com- monwealth’s labor market continues to slowly gain back jobs since the recession, questions remain on the type of the jobs being created. While

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Eurozone and Asian weakness drags down the global economy and hurts U.S. exports. The sovereign debt crisis and housing market downturn in Europe, and increasing volatility in China’s growth rates are the primary factors here. 14 Suggested Reading The

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

of Pennsylvania. The funds are allocated using a formula that distributes the state aid based upon municipal population and the market value of real estate in a municipality. As a result, there is no direct relationship between the amount of state

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2001_hr266.pdf

plans have been established in 8 every state, and defined contribution (DC) plans have become 9 more popular following the market strength of the last two 10 decades; and 11 WHEREAS, The features of DC plans make them attractive to 12

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Contact US

IFO - Contact US IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Contact US Address Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Full Name Email

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