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July 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.99 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $110 million compared to July 2023. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
February 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.77 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $31.1 million (1.1%) compared to February 2023 (adjusted). Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised monthly General Fund revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 based on projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023 (includes adjustments released with the original monthly estimates in August 2023) adjusted to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in December 2023. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
December 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.70 billion in General Fund revenues for December, a decrease of $342.2 million (-8.5%) compared to December 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
November 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.06 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $107.9 million (3.7%) compared to November 2022 (adjusted). Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
November 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
October 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.25 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $121.4 million (3.9%) compared to October 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
October 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
September 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.06 billion in General Fund revenues for September, a decrease of $161.3 million (-3.8%) compared to September 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
September 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
August 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.90 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $34.5 million (1.2%) compared to August 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023. Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue
August 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
July 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.88 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $185.3 million compared to July 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
July 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
June 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $44.92 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2022-23, a decrease of $3.22 billion (-6.7%) compared to the prior fiscal year. The decline is due to a one-time transfer of $3.84 billion in FY 2021-22 and a new SUT transfer. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
June 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
May 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.29 billion in General Fund Revenues for May, an increase of $61.1 million (1.9%) compared to May 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
May 2023 Monthly Economic Update The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
April 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $5.66 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $863.0 million (-13.2%) compared to April 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update
March 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $6.19 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $633.3 million (11.4%) compared to March 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
March 2023 Monthly Economic Update The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
February 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.83 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $393.5 million (16.2%) compared to February 2022. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
January 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.57 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $23.7 million (-0.7%) compared to January 2022. Due to a processing delay on the last day of the month, roughly $94 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in January will be shifted to February. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
JANUARY 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
December 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.04 billion in General Fund revenue for December, an increase of $195.9 million (5.1%) compared to December 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the shift of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
December 2022 Monthly Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
NOVEMBER 2022 REVENUE UPDATE The Commonwealth collected $2.75 billion in General Fund revenue for November, a decrease of $3.87 billion (-58.4%) compared to November 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the delay of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
November 2022 Monthly Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
October 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.12 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $310.8 million (11.0%) compared to October 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
October 2022 Monthly Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
September 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.22 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $214.8 million (5.4%) compared to September 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
SEPTEMBER 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
August 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.86 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $290.7 million (11.3%) compared to August 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue
August 2022 Monthly Economic Update The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update
July 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $4.0 million (-0.1%) compared to July 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
July 2022 Monthly Economic Update The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
June 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $48.13 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2021-22, an increase of $7.74 billion (19.2%) compared to the prior fiscal year. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
JUNE 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
May 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.23 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $716.2 million (-18.1%) compared to May 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
May 2022 Monthly Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
April 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $6.52 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $2.56 billion (64.5%) compared to April 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
April 2022 Monthly Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
March 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $5.56 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $714.3 million (14.8%) compared to March 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
March 2022 Monthly Economic Update The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, update
February 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.43 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decrease of $249.5 million (-9.3%) compared to February 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
February 2022 Monthly Economic Update The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
January 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.59 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $931.08 million (35.0%) compared to January 2021. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
January 2022 Monthly Economic News The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
December 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.85 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $162.3 million (4.4%) compared to December 2020.  Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
December 2021 Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update
November 2021 Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update
October 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.81 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $221.7 million (8.6%) compared to October 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
October 2021 Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update
SEPTEMBER 2021 REVENUE UPDATE The Commonwealth collected $4.00 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $741.3 million (22.7%) compared to September 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
September 2021 Economic Update The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update
August 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.57 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $25.9 million (1.0%) compared to August 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget. Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue
July 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $1.40 billion (-34.2%) compared to July 2020. July 2020 collections included roughly $1.62 billion in revenue that was shifted from FY 2019-20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July 2021 revenues exceeded the prior year by $216.2 million (8.7%). Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
June 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $40.39 billion in General Fund revenues for FY 2020-21, an increase of $8.12 billion (25.1%) from the prior fiscal year. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
June 2021 Economic Update The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
May 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.95 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $1.84 billion (87.5%) compared to May 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
May 2021 Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
April 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.96 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $1.78 billion (81.7%) compared to April 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
April 2021 Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
March 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.84 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $407.9 million (9.2%) compared to March 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
March 2021 Economic Update The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
February 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.68 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $516.3 million (23.8%) compared to February 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
February 2021 Economic Update The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
January 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.66 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $412.6 million (-13.4%) compared to January 2020.  Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
January 2021 Economic Update The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
December 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.68 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $774.3 million (26.6%) compared to December 2019.  Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
December 2020 Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
November 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $18.3 million (-0.8%) compared to November 2019. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
November 2020 Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
October 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.59 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $77.5 million (2.9%) compared to October 2019. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
October 2020 Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
September 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.26 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $76.7 million (2.4%) compared to September 2019. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
September 2020 Economic Update The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
August 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget. Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue
August 2020 Economic Update The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
July 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
July 2020 Economic Update The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
June 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates.  Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
June 2020 Economic Update The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  Tags: economic, monthly, news
May 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
May 2020 Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
April 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
April 2020 Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news
March 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million. Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue
February 2020 The Commonwealth collected $2.17 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $125.9 million compared to February 2019. Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue
JANUARY 2020 The Commonwealth collected $3.07 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $186.0 million compared to January 2019. Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue
monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2024-25 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2024 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2024-25 state budget. 08/23/2024
Affordable Connectivity Program Ends Due to the depletion of approved funds, the federal Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) is no longer accepting new enrollments and the last fully-funded program month was April 2024. In 2023, Pennsylvania households received $241 million in ACP funds, an average monthly benefit of $33 per household.   05/01/2024
Revised monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised monthly General Fund revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 based on projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023 (includes adjustments released with the original monthly estimates in August 2023) adjusted to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in December 2023. 01/29/2024
SNAP Policy Changes Expand Program This research brief uses the latest data from the US Dept of Agriculture to examine post-pandemic SNAP trends. Since November 2019, policy and definition changes have increased the number of recipients by 16% and the average monthly benefit by 52%. 01/03/2024
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $24.9 billion in General Fund revenues (2.0%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year). 12/01/2023
November 2023 monthly Economic Update The monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  11/29/2023
October 2023 monthly Economic Update The monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  10/23/2023
September 2023 monthly Economic Update The monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  09/14/2023
monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023. 08/30/2023
August 2023 monthly Economic Update The monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  08/23/2023
July 2023 monthly Economic Update The monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  07/12/2023
June 2023 monthly Economic Update The monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.  06/26/2023
May 2023 monthly Economic Update The monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 05/23/2023
APRIL 2023 monthly ECONOMIC UPDATE The monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/25/2023
APRIL 2023 monthly ECONOMIC UPDATE The monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/04/2023
March 2023 monthly Economic Update The March edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 03/21/2023
JANUARY 2023 monthly ECONOMIC UPDATE The January edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/25/2023
December 2022 monthly Economic Update The December edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/20/2022
November 2022 monthly Economic Update The November edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends.  11/21/2022
October 2022 monthly Economic Update The October edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. 10/24/2022
SEPTEMBER 2022 monthly ECONOMIC UPDATE The September edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/19/2022
monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. 09/01/2022
August 2022 monthly Economic Update The August edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/22/2022
July 2022 monthly Economic Update The July edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  07/25/2022
JUNE 2022 monthly ECONOMIC UPDATE The June edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  06/16/2022
May 2022 monthly Economic Update The May edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  05/19/2022
April 2022 monthly Economic Update The April edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  04/12/2022
March 2022 monthly Economic Update The March edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  03/18/2022
February 2022 monthly Economic Update The February edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  02/09/2022
January 2022 monthly Economic News The January edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/17/2022
December 2021 Economic Update The December edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/07/2021
November 2021 Economic Update The November edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 11/10/2021
Labor Market Update - October 2021 The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The jobs shortfall expanded in September on a year-over-year (YOY) basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. For September, the computed YOY change in payroll jobs is -384,800, compared to -365,500 for August. 10/26/2021
October 2021 Economic Update The October edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 10/07/2021
Labor Market Update - September 2021 The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market contracted slightly in August on a year-over-year basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. These data reflect the final month of federal unemployment compensation benefits. 09/20/2021
September 2021 Economic Update The September edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/16/2021
monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget. 08/31/2021
Labor Market Update- August 2021 The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month. 08/24/2021
August 2021 Economic Update The August edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  08/12/2021
Labor Market Update- July 2021 The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months.  07/19/2021
July 2021 Economic Update The July edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  07/14/2021
Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021 The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses.  06/23/2021
June 2021 Economic Update The June edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 06/17/2021
Labor Market Update- June 2021 The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus. 06/03/2021
May 2021 Economic Update The May edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  05/18/2021
April 2021 Economic Update The April edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  04/28/2021
March 2021 Economic Update The March edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  03/22/2021
Revised monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. 02/23/2021
February 2021 Economic Update The February edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  02/18/2021
January 2021 Economic Update The January edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  01/20/2021
December 2020 Economic Update The December edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  12/16/2020
November 2020 Economic Update The November edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  11/25/2020
October 2020 Economic Update The October edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  10/22/2020
September 2020 Economic Update The September edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  09/23/2020
monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget. 08/27/2020
August 2020 Economic Update The August edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/25/2020
July 2020 Economic Update The July edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  07/23/2020
June 2020 Economic Update The June edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  06/17/2020
May 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. 06/01/2020
May 2020 Economic Update The May edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 05/20/2020
April 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates. 05/01/2020
April 2020 Economic Update The April edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 04/22/2020
March 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million. 04/01/2020
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  03/25/2020
IFO News Stand - February Edition The February edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 02/20/2020
IFO News Stand - January Edition The January edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/15/2020
IFO News Stand - December Edition The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/20/2019
IFO News Stand-October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  10/24/2019
IFO NEWS STAND - SEPTEMBER EDITION The September edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  09/25/2019
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.  08/28/2019
monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. 08/08/2019
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/18/2019
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/20/2019
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/22/2019
IFO News Stand - April Edition The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/22/2019
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 03/19/2019
IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 12/11/2018
IFO News Stand - November Edition The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 11/20/2018
IFO News Stand - October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 10/17/2018
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 08/20/2018
monthly AND QUARTERLY REVENUE ESTIMATES This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 07/30/2018
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/24/2018
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/19/2018
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/16/2018
IFO News Stand - April Edition The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/20/2018
Updated monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget. 12/21/2017
monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget. 08/10/2017
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf the next page. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Community HealthChoices (CHC) % Receiving HCBS (monthly average) 1 -- -- 72% 65% 68% 68% Transferred to community settings 2 -- -- -- -- 668 1,048 ED visits per 1,000 member months -- -- 32.5 70.1 77.6 -- Average Cost Comparison (State Funds, $000s) Per CHC NFI participant 3 -- -- $0.5 $0 Hits: 70
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf the premium on behalf of active employees (although actual monetary contributions did not begin until 1966, with a four dollar monthly payment). In 1963, Act 518 permitted retiring employees to convert their active employee Blue Cross/Blue Shield healthcare benefit to PEBTF is provided in Appendix VI). The arrangement for that program requires that the PEBTF invoice the Office of Administration monthly for the cost of claims and administra- tive expenses, less other sources of income such as subscriber premiums and independ- Hits: 64
index.cfm examine trends for Pennsylvania gaming revenues from fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24 and the first two months of FY 2024-25. ... (Full Report) County Income Patterns 2019 to 2022 Economics and Other September 09, 2024 This annual billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $33 million (+1.1%) compared to August 2023. ... (Full Report) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates Revenue Estimates August 23, 2024 This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2024-25 Hits: 55
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf Class T-H, the highest average compensation received as an active member during any three nonoverlapping periods of 12 consecutive months with the compensation for part-time service being annualized on the basis of the fractional portion of the school year 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 12 consecutive months, with the compensation for part- time service being annualized on the basis of the fractional portion of the school year Hits: 44
2002_drop_report.pdf continue employment and continue to receive wages or salary as usual. But, instead of deferring retirement, the employee’s regular monthly retirement payments commence and are deposited into an interest bearing account. At the conclusion of employment, which coincides with the drop participation period, the employee leaves service, receives the balance in the interest bearing account and begins to receive regular monthly retirement benefit payments. The ability to continue employment at full salary, after retirement benefits commence, allows the employee to accumulate Hits: 37
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf for vesting. Benefit Payment Options – Depending upon the local government's contract, employees may choose individ- ual alternatives for the monthly retirement allowance or may select from a list of options. At the time of retirement, a member may elect to receive a single life annuity (a retirement allowance payable throughout life providing the maximum amount of monthly payments available; but ceasing Summary of Plan Provisions. (Cont'd) - 39 - when the retiree dies). At the time of retirement Hits: 36
REU-2019-12.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections were $58.5 million (-2.0 percent) below estimate for December and $213.9 million (1.4 percent) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues. CNIT Hits: 34
REU-2019-11.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of November were above estimate by $42.1 million (1.8 percent) and by $272.0 million (2.2 percent Hits: 33
MTR-2017-01.pdf from the Federal Housing Finance Agency confirm these trends in Pennsylvania (3.7% sales price growth). Other data show the months’ supply of inventory has declined to 5.8 months (-6.3%) in 2016. The months’ supply is the number of months it would take for current inventory to be Hits: 28
MTR-2016-08.pdf 1% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA ELECTRICITY MARKET TRENDS The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases an Electricity Monthly Update 1 , which provides historical revenues, retail sales (demand) and average retail prices of electricity on national, regional and state of heat. 2 Decreased demand has likely applied downward pressure on recent prices. Average retail prices in the first six months of 2016 were 1.1% lower than in the first half of 2015, driven by declines in the commercial (-3 Hits: 28
MTR-2016-06.pdf 30,258 $644 Growth 1.0% 2.6% -41.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INCREASES In recent months, U.S. economic uncertainty has increased due to weak job growth, tepid business investment and pressure on corporate profits. Those One timely indicator of the state economy is employment growth, which remains solid. Based on data from the first five months of the year, the state is on pace to add 54,500 jobs in 2016, which is comparable to last Hits: 28
MTR-2019-09.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues exceeded the September estimate by $111.0 million and by $86.2 million for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was due to stronger than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and escheat collections. September Hits: 27
MTR-2015-10.pdf roughly 2.4% next year if Social Security recipients are to receive a 2.0% COLA in 2017. October 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Oct-15 $2,132 $2,109 $23 Growth -4.9% -4.6% -27 Completed Home Sales 10 2.9% 6.9% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 13.2% 12.9% 12.3% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly Hits: 27
REU-2020-02.pdf In August 2019, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For February, General Fund revenues exceeded the estimate by $102.9 million (5.0 percent) and by $298.4 million (1.4 percent) for the fiscal-year- to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was a result of stronger than expected collections in corporate net income tax (CNIT), gross receipts tax (GRT) and Hits: 26
MTR-2017-05.pdf increased by only 0.7 percent from the same period in the prior fiscal year. 1 For the latest three months, collections have increased by only 0.8 percent. Sales tax revenues are critical to the state budget because each percentage Reserve Board of New York show that PA per capita consumer debt levels increased (1.3%) during the past nine months. An increase in credit card, auto and student loan debt more than offset a slight decline in mortgage debt. Second Hits: 26
MTR-2015-08.pdf billions. Deposits attributed to Pennsylvania banking activity. 2 Annual average growth since 2006. 3 Thousands of payroll jobs. August 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Aug-15 $1,868 $1,848 $20 Growth 4.3% 4.1% 23 Completed Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly Hits: 26
MTR-2018-1.pdf an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through January, total General Fund revenues are $462 million, or 3 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. Most of the year-to-date overage occurred in the current month. January 2018 total General Fund collections exceeded estimate by $366 million, due largely to the receipt of $200 million from Hits: 25
MTR-2018-04.pdf an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through April, total General Fund revenues are $173 million, or 0.6 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of April, General Fund collections were $325 million (-8.0 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded Hits: 25
MTR-2017-06.pdf and services for the elderly and disabled ($21,479) being somewhat lower than the average for that sector. June 2017 Monthly Trends Report Sector 1 2015 2016 Health Care and Social Assistance 11,459 21,012 Ambulatory Health Care Svcs. 2 services for the elderly and disabled. Annual Change in Pennsylvania Employment 1 The QCEW data are used to benchmark the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) series discussed by various media outlets. United States Pennsylvania Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun- Hits: 25
MTR-2016-09.pdf year basis. The latest reading shows that overall food price levels in the U.S. have declined for 9 consecutive months, which represents the longest period of food deflation since the 1960s, excluding the 2009 recession. 2 Milk prices have recorded be modest, since dairy purchases comprise a little more than ten percent of consumer spending on groceries. 5 September 2016 Monthly Trends Report Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Milk Marketing Board, “Wholesale Retail Pricing,” Jan 2014-Aug 2016. Notes: Prices reflect the average Hits: 25
MTR-2016-04.pdf real-time measure of the state of the housing market, though there is typically a lag of one or two months’ time between buyer engagement, the actual closing of a sale, and the collection and remittance of tax. Revenues this fiscal into the Pennsylvania housing market, because the active period for home sales typically begins in the second quarter. April 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Pennsylvania Association of Realtors, “Pennsylvania Q4- 2015 Statewide Report,” January 2016, and “Pennsylvania Q1-2016 Statewide Report Hits: 25
MTR-2016-02.pdf impact on tax collections in March and April, when corporations remit their final payments for tax year 2015. February 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 will be released March Completed Home Sales 10 6.9% 8.2% 8.3% 2.0% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly Hits: 25
MTR-2015-11.pdf Source: U.S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1,808 $1,796 $12 Growth 4.3% 3 Industrial Electricity Sales 13 2.4% -3.5% -4.4% n.a. -0.6% -2.3% -1.6% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly Hits: 25
MTR-2015-07.pdf U.S. data: CPS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16-19 51.9% 48.8% 44.4% 40.9% Monthly Trends Report General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul 2015 $2,135 $2,097 $38 Growth -4.9% 5 Completed Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.3% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Department of Labor—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll Hits: 25
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Oct-12 7.9% 170.3 7 3.74 1,412 2.2% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 25
REU-2020-01.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections for January fell below estimate by $18.4 million 0.6 percent). Fiscal- year-to-date (FYTD) collections are exceeding estimate by $195.4 million (1.1 percent). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections, which Hits: 24
MTR-2019-05.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For May, General Fund collections exceeded estimate ($17.4 million) and are $907.8 million (2.9 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was the result of strong collections in sales and use tax (SUT) countered by weaker than expected collections in Hits: 24
MTR-2019-03.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections met estimate for March (+$2.0 million) and gross receipts tax, cigarette tax and non-tax revenues. PIT collections were above estimate by $10.0 million for the month. The overage was due to withholding ($5.7 million) and estimated ($4.3 million) payments. FYTD collections are below estimate Hits: 24
MTR-2018-11.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $154.1 million (7.1%) above estimate date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher than expected, while personal income tax (PIT) fell below Hits: 24
MTR-2017-10.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first four months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $9.6 million (-0.1 percent) below the IFO’s official Hits: 24
MTR-2017-04.pdf new trend of graduates in search of a lower cost of living, which can be found in Pennsylvania. April 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-YEAR PUMS 2015. 2 The Institute for College Access Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -6.1% -4.9% -4.9% n.a. -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll Hits: 24
MTR-2017-03.pdf associated change in consumer habits and (2) tighter underwriting standards that hindered loans to potential new homeowners. 3 March 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 Consumers Take a Credit Card Breather, The Wall Street Journal. March 2017. 2 Project on Student Debt Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -3.9% -6.2% -4.9% -4.9% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll Hits: 24
MTR-2016-12.pdf contraction explains some of the weakness in their real GDP growth rates from the first half of 2016. December 2016 Monthly Trends Report 2016 Real GDP Growth by State State Q1 Q2 First Half New York 5.6% 0.1% 2 Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -2.5% -3.9% -6.2% -4.9% -4.0% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll Hits: 24
MTR-2016-11.pdf columns) suggests that the employment contraction may have abated, more employment data are necessary to confirm that outcome. November 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Provided by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Labor and Industry. 2 Released on November 30, 2016. 3 Natural Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -5.3% -1.0% -3.4% n.a. -4.5% -1.7% -2.3% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll Hits: 24
MTR-2016-10.pdf of average wage growth, and possibly higher real and nominal economic growth for Pennsylvania and the U.S. October 2016 Monthly Trends Report Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Annual Wage Growth Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -5.3% -1.0% -3.4% n.a. -4.5% -1.7% -2.3% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll Hits: 24
MTR-2016-05.pdf 6% 2.5% -44.4% Dollar amounts are in millions. CONSUMER SPENDING TRENDS DIVERGE The U.S. Census Bureau publishes monthly data on retail sales by sector (excludes services), which is used as an indicator for U.S. consumer spending trends online shopping), it is unclear if others will reverse (i.e., less dining out if gasoline prices increase). May 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 The Wall Street Journal, “Home Depot Tops Views, Boosts Guidance,” May 17, 2016. Sector Sales as a Hits: 24
MTR-2016-01.pdf or independent contractors. It also excludes most partners employed in partnerships as well as owners of S corporations. January 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State Area Employment Data- base. Data exclude military personnel and agricultural Completed Home Sales 10 6.9% 8.2% 8.3% 2.2% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly Hits: 24
MTR-2015-09.pdf 4,862 8,076 6,133 2,974 7,737 7,520 57,880 16,117 188,003 September 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Sept-15 $2,733 $2,710 $23 Growth 6.1% 5.7% 87 Completed Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly Hits: 24
REU-2019-10.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of October exceeded estimate by $143.7 million (5.7 percent) and by $229.8 million (2.3 percent) for Hits: 23
MTR-2019-02.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $59.3 million (3.0%) above estimate for February and $379.9 million (1.9%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly surplus was largely due to higher than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. Monthly CNIT collections were above estimate Hits: 23
MTR-2017-11.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first five months of FY 2017 -18, total General Fund revenues were $203.1 million (1.8 percent) above the IFO’s official Hits: 23
MTR-2016-03.pdf lower growth path, or represents an unusual data point due to weak year-end bonuses or seasonal hiring. March 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 See Table SQ5N under the “State Quarterly Personal Income” link at http://www.bea.gov/regional/index Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -2.9% -3.6% -3.8% -5.3% -2.4% -1.6% -1.2% -4.5% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll Hits: 23
MER-2014-04.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 23
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf the Com- monwealth, ratings vary across veterans homes. The U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Ser- vices (CMS) provides monthly ratings for nursing homes. In January 2021, the weighted average of the overall CMS rating was 3.9 (1 = worst increased 4.6 percent per annum over this time period. These pension payments are largely federal gov- ernment expenditures paid monthly to Pennsylvania veterans, most of whom reside in the state. The de- partment provides annual Veterans Trust Fund grants to Hits: 22
MTR-2018-10.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $19.5 million (-0.8 percent) below a result of strength in both non-motor and motor vehicle SUT collections. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for the month exceeded estimate by $4.2 million and fiscal year collections are essentially meeting estimate. FYTD PIT collections are below estimate Hits: 22
MTR-2018-02.pdf an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through February, total General Fund revenues are $619 million, or 3.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated are $17 million (-1.8 percent) below estimate for the fiscal year. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments for the month outpaced the estimate by $16 million (38.0 percent). Final payments were strong, exceeding estimate by $16 million (75.8 Hits: 22
MTR-2017-12.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revised monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 The new release includes the 231 $13,980 $251 Growth 5.8% 5.1% 70.6% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS December 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state Hits: 22
MER-2015-01.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 22
MER-2014-12.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 22
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf 45,000. 24.6% 28.0% 34.1% 39.4% 41.5% Actual tax rate for Fiscal Year 2010-2011, Monthly Revenue Report June 2012 Department of Revenue, p. 4. 8 Total Tax Revenues for Fiscal Year 2010-2011, Monthly Revenue Report June 2012, Department of Revenue, 9 p. 4. - 9 - TABLE 1 PERSONAL INCOME TAX, ADDITIONAL REVENUE ESTIMATES Tax Hits: 22
2004_srpvffinal.pdf A 20 years and age 60 or any age w/25 years service Locally determined up to maximum of $200 monthly Member is not vested until reaching normal retire- ment eligibility. Local boards have discretion in determining benefit amounts for departments service; Age 60 w/5 years or any age w/28 years service $5 x years of service credit paid monthly No vesting rights exist until member attains eligibility for normal retirement. 10 year cliff 20 years service or 10 years Hits: 22
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf on a statewide basis and the rate of emergency department utilization decreased from 74.0 visits per 1,000 member months to 66.1. Child welfare services are shifting focus to prevention services in combination with the reduc- tion in out- in Part 3 of the DHS Performance-Based Budget. Over the last three years, the average cost per member per month increased by 2.4 percent per annum. Due to cost shifting and various one-time measures, expenditures can fluctuate from Hits: 21
MTR-2019-07.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For July, General Fund collections were $2,329.2 million and were and annual payments also recorded gains, albeit on a much smaller base. SUT collections were $925.4 million for the month, an $86.0 million (-8.5 percent) reduction from the prior year. The decline was due to a one-time Hits: 21
MTR-2018-09.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $137.8 million (4.7 percent) above million) due to broad strength in estimated payments (tax year 2018) and unusually large settlement payments from older tax years. Monthly SUT collections were above estimate ($25.5 million). The overage was due to non-motor vehicle collections ($31.5 million Hits: 21
MTR-2018-08.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $54.4 million (2.5 percent) above with the underlying strength of the state economy. SUT collections continue to exceed expectations as collections for the last three months were up 8.1 percent from last year. Going forward, a potential downside that should be monitored is the slight Hits: 21
MTR-2018-06.pdf an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For June, General Fund collections were $154 million (-4.7 percent) below estimate due to the lack of 32,003 $2,564 Growth 9.2% 4.1% 179.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS June 2018 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 The update incorporated estimates of various tax law changes, authorized transfers and borrowing Hits: 21
MER-2015-04.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 21
MER-2014-02.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 21
MTR-2017-07.pdf 085 $2,063 $22 Growth 5.7% 6.7% -42.4% Dollar amounts are in millions. PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME MONTHLY TRENDS JULY 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - Amount 2017 Q1 Annual Growth 1 AAGR 2 2012-2017 Maryland $59,390 4 to 2017Q1. 2 Average annual growth rate from 2012Q1 to 2017Q1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 See Monthly Trends Report June 2017 for more information. http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/releases. cfm?type=1. 2 The Wall Hits: 20
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows:  Change in Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey) The month-to-month change in payroll employment (excludes self-employed) based on total number of jobs. Payroll employment increased by 17,000 jobs Hits: 20
MER-2015-06.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 20
MER-2015-03.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 20
MER-2015-02.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 20
MER-2014-01.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 20
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 8.1% 156.7 6.1% 8.0% 76 number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. Data are from the US Department of Labor - Survey of Households. Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Data are from Hits: 20
MTR-2017-08.pdf 119.5% FYTD $4,214 $4,149 $65 Growth 5.7% 5.6% 12.2% Dollar amounts are in millions. MONTHLY TRENDS AUGUST 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), “Analysis of Over- dose Deaths in Pennsylvania, 2016,” July Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll Hits: 19
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund Hits: 19
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf four labor market metrics that are tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes self-employed). Payroll employment increased by 7,000 jobs in August from the prior Hits: 19
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdf seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey) The month-to-month change in payroll employment (excludes self-employed) based on total number of jobs. Payroll employment increased by 14,800 jobs Hits: 19
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows:  Change in Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey) The month-to-month change in payroll employment (excludes self-employed) based on total number of jobs. Preliminary payroll employment increased by 5,600 Hits: 19
MER-2014-11.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 19
MER-2014-09.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 19
MER-2014-08.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 19
MER-2014-03.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 19
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 19
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Dec 7.8% 201.0 4 7 3.31 1,426 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 19
RTR-2015-01.pdf 2.4 billion in General Fund revenues in January, an increase of $37 million (1.6%) over January 2014. The monthly growth rate is affected by the $80 million transfer of liquor store profits, which occurred in March of the prior growth was $645 million (4.4%).  Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $32 million (35.9%) for the month. Some of the increase is attributable to distributions from the clearing account ($21 million) that were initially posted to that Hits: 18
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf forecasters projects a 60% probability for a US economic recession within the next year, up 10 percentage points from the month prior. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows:  Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes self-employed). September payroll employment increased by 12,000 jobs over the Hits: 18
MER-2014-10.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 18
MER-2014-07.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Hits: 18
MER-2013-12.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 18
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 18
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 18
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 18
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 18
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 18
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a r c h 2 0 1 3 Jan 7.9% 195.0 4.4% 11.4% 1 3.31 1,498 1.6% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 18
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 181.7 4.3% 5 3.45 1,416 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 18
RTR-2015-03.pdf date growth was $875 million (4.3%). • Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $96 million (22.8%) for the month and $252 million (15.3%) for the fiscal year-to-date compared to the same periods in the prior fiscal year. • Personal income tax withholding revenues increased $33 million (4.2%) for the month and $248 million (3.8%) for the fiscal year-to-date. The twelve-month average displays a growth rate of Hits: 17
MTR-2019-08.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. Compared to those estimates, General Fund collections of $2,192.9 million than expected non-motor collections, which exceeded estimate by $29.7 million (3.7 percent). Motor vehicle collections for the month were short by $0.9 million (-0.6 percent). FYTD SUT collections are $83.7 million (-4.2 percent) under Hits: 17
MTR-2019-04.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections exceeded estimate for April ($508.6 million) and are $890.5 million (3.1%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by unusually strong personal income tax (PIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax Hits: 17
MTR-2018-05.pdf an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For the month of May, General Fund collections were $197 million (-7.4 percent) below estimate but are roughly meeting estimate for the Hits: 17
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf one-third to two-thirds chance of at least a mild recession during the upcoming year. For the next several months, this economic update will use state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy is heading towards recession. Labor specific data that will be tracked and recent trends are as follows:  Change in Payroll Jobs. The change from month-to-month in total payroll employment (excludes self- employed). Prior to COVID, the state economy averaged a net gain of Hits: 17
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdf lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes self-employed). Payroll employment increased by 10,400 jobs in November from the prior Hits: 17
MER-2014-06.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 17
MER-2014-05.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 17
MER-2013-11.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 17
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf population expands or a larger share of the working-age population participates in the labor force. Figure 2.3 displays monthly labor force participation rates from January 2000 to October 2021 for the U.S. and through September 2021 for Pennsylvania force participation rate fell 2.1 percentage points from March 2020 (63.5% to 61.4%), which is the largest monthly percentage point drop in the history of the series (started in 1976). The U.S. rate fell 2.4 percentage Hits: 17
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 17
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Nov-12 7.7% 138.7 5 3.46 1,416 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 17
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Jul 8.3% 104.3 4.2% 8 3.44 1,379 1.4% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 17
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Jun 8.2% 66.7 7 3.54 1,362 1.7% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 17
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 May 8.2% 99.3 5.6% 8 5 3.73 1,310 1.7% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail Hits: 17
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf and Constitutional Issues – Appendix XVI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453 SERS and PSERS Holdings in Companies Targeted For Divestment Tables – Table I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 12 Month Return of Targeted Companies vs. MSCI EAFE – Table II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 State Employees’ Retirement System, Potential Impact of Divestment on Employer take action within 90 days, the retirement system would be required to divest 50% of all direct holdings within nine months and 100% of all direct holdings in the publicly-traded company within 15 months. The retirement systems would also be Hits: 17
RTR-2015-04.pdf to-date growth is 6.1%.  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $34 million (4.3%) for the month and by $282 million (3.8%) for the fiscal year-to-date. The three-month and twelve-month growth rates averaged 5.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Non-withholding revenues increased by $194 million (18 Hits: 16
RTR-2015-02.pdf below and on the next page.  Sales and use tax collections increased by $30 million (4.8%) for the month and $285 million (4.7%) for the fiscal year-to-date. Nonmotor vehicle sales tax collections grew by $20 million (3.7%) for the month and $206 million (3.9%) for the fiscal year-to-date. The three and twelve-month growth rates were 3 Hits: 16
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf categories. 2 Data represent the percentage of adults who reported there was a time in the past 12 months when they needed to see a doctor but could not because of the cost. 1 Premature death is an age-adjusted measure 9,850 9,925 # Cancer screenings 3,485 2,443 2,350 3,120 3,305 -- # Children < 72 months old screened for lead (000s) 137.9 140.1 146.2 151.8 161.0 -- # Callers to FREE Quitline (000s) -- -- 41.1 Hits: 16
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf opportunities to track the average wage and the number of individuals that remain employed for more than 6 months after leaving TANF for employment. The department is currently taking steps to coordinate with L&I to collect this information. Pennsylvania’s PA Department of Human Services. 3 Percent of children receiving 6+ well child visits in their first 15 months of life. Data only include Medicaid. 4 Percent of diabetics with poor control of hemoglobin A1c (>9%). A lower percentage is better Hits: 16
MTR-2019-01.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $99.1 million (-3.3%) below estimate above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Sales and use tax (SUT) came in above estimate for the month while corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) came in below estimate. Other tax and non-tax Hits: 16
MTR-2018-12.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $80.8 million (2.9%) above estimate date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher than expected, while personal income tax (PIT) fell below Hits: 16
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes self-employed). Payroll employment increased by 10,400 jobs in October from the prior Hits: 16
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf four labor market metrics that are tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes self-employed). July payroll employment increased over the prior month and the change in Hits: 16
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdf Cash Flow Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax collections based on recent transactions. Payment rules are simple, and refunds are generally not paid because firms merely forward the tax year and calendar year are the same. The exception is certain firms whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2024, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax Hits: 15
MTR-2018-03.pdf an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through March, total General Fund revenues are $498 million, or 2.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of March, General Fund collections were $121 million (-2.7 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded Hits: 15
MTR-2017-09.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first three months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $25.3 million (0.4 percent) above the IFO’s official Hits: 15
MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf Monthly Trends Report Independent Fiscal Office Highlights of the October Report October 2015 General Fund revenues declined by $110 million (-4.9%) compared to the same month in the prior year. However, the comparison with the prior year is affected by one-time payments and timing issues Hits: 15
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdf the Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All Items Philadelphia CPI-U is published on a bi-monthly basis, but four larger components that comprise half of the total CPI-U are published monthly. The metrics tracked (and CPI-U weight) are as follows (note: not all CPI-U components tracked; growth rates in Hits: 15
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf issue emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emer- gency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of house- hold. The amount for CY 2021 ($0.6 billion) represents six months (January through June) of emergency benefits.  Direct state sup- port reflects funds allocated directly to states for general and Hits: 15
RTR-2014-07.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For the first month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of $323 million the table below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $83 million, or 4.4%. The one-month growth in tax revenues has exceeded the recent 3-month (2.1%) and twelve-month (0.1%) growth.  Sales Hits: 14
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. The amount of additional SNAP benefits for Pennsylvania households is estimated to exceed $90 million per month. The value shown ($0.3 billion) represents three months (March to May) of emergency benefits.  The business tax cuts are national Hits: 14
Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf an increase of 4.6% compared to collections for September 2011 (details on the next page). In the first three months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 3.8% to $6.07 billion. For the most recent twelve-month period, General Fund collections increased by 1.3% over the same period in the prior year. Change in General Fund Hits: 14
Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf 12.23 billion. General Fund collections increased by 6.3% and 2.1% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source December 2012 FY 12-13 to Date 3 month rolling 12 month rolling Corporate Net Income $134.9 $298.3 $208.8 $246.2 percent change 46.6% 37 Hits: 14
Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf a decline of 0.6% compared to collections for August 2011 (details on the next page). In the first two months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 3.2% to $3.64 billion. For the most recent three month period, collections declined by 4.8% versus the same period in the prior year. For the twelve month period, General Hits: 14
RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdf in the amount needed to bring them up to the maximum benefit for their household size or (2) $95 per month, whichever is greater (combined, known as emergency allotments). The table displays the impact of the emergency allotments, which doubled the federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG), up from 160% previously. For federal fiscal year (FFY) 2022-23, 200% FPIG is a monthly income of $3,052 for a household of 2 ($36,624 annual) and $4,626 for a household of 4 Hits: 14
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf 1,000 workers 27 29 29 28 30 -- Workplace fatalities 77 82 66 71 72 68 Avg. time for adjudication (months) 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.5 Misclassified Workers & Labor Compliance Misclassified workers discovered 28 workers and overall incidents due to the pandemic. The adjudication process for workers’ compensation claims (first level) averaged 5.6 months in 2020, an 11% reduction from 2016. Misclassified Workers and Labor Compliance The Bureau of Labor Law Compliance (Activity 12 Hits: 14
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf Cash Flow Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax collections based on recent transactions. Payment rules are simple and refunds are generally not paid because firms merely forward the tax year and calendar year are the same. The exception is certain firms whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2023, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax Hits: 14
MTR-2017-02.pdf sectors. The regional natural gas market will partly determine whether or not Pennsylvania follows these projected national trends. February 2017 Monthly Trends Report PA Electricity Generation By Source 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia Completed Home Sales 10 5.7% 4.0% 0.8% 5.6% 11.2% 11.2% 2.8% 5.2% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll Hits: 14
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf Revenue Analyst I Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2022-23 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2022-23 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Hits: 14
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf This report uses the latest economic data through October 23, 2020 and revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year. The data suggest that the state will face unique short- and long-term challenges due to the lingering estimate of General Fund revenues for FY 2020-21 as revenues have outperformed expectations for the first four months of the fiscal year. An important factor that drives that outcome is the substantial federal stimulus monies that have been injected into Hits: 14
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf would receive an annual retirement benefit of $60,000 x 30 x 0.020 = $36,000, or $3,000 per month. The retirement benefits administered by the Systems are funded through employee contributions, investment earnings and employer contributions. The general benefit for new members would be equal to the average compensation of the five highest non-overlapping periods of twelve consecutive months for PSERS, and the five high- est calendar years for SERS. For SERS, the amount of voluntary overtime pay included Hits: 14
RTR-2014-11.pdf over the prior fiscal year. Withholding, comprising the majority of these revenues, increased by $12 million (1.9%) for the month and $121 million (3.4%) for the fiscal year. The three and twelve-month growth rates for withholding were 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively.  Sales and use tax revenues increased by $26 Hits: 13
RTR-2014-04.pdf below and on the next page.  Total tax revenues declined by $143 million (-4.2%). Over the past three months, revenues declined by $137 million (-1.5%) compared to the same period last year.  Personal income tax remittances declined by $85 million (-4.5%) for the month. Nonwithholding declined $213 million (-17.1%) due to very weak annual payments. Due to technical factors, withholding increased by $128 Hits: 13
RTR-2014-03.pdf on the next page.  Total tax revenues grew by less than $1 million (0.0%). Over the past three months, revenues increased by $14 million (0.2%) compared to the same period last year.  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $63 million (17.7%) for the month. Most of the increase was in final payments, which were $51 million (41.0%) higher than the prior year. Estimated Hits: 13
Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf an increase of 12.9% compared to collections for October 2011 (details on the next page). In the first four months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 5.9% to $8.11 billion. General Fund collections increased by 5.5% and 2.0% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Hits: 13
Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For July, the first month of fiscal year 2013-14, the Commonwealth collected $1.92 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of 4.3% over July 2012. General Fund collections increased by 1.8% over the most recent three-month period. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $99 million (5 Hits: 13
Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf revenues in July, an increase of 7.2% over the amount collected in July 2011. For the most recent three month period, collections declined by 2.9% compared to the same period in the prior year. For the most recent twelve month period, collections increased by 1.0%. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar Hits: 13
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf Cash Flow Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax collections based on recent transactions. Payment rules are simple and refunds are generally not paid because firms merely forward the tax year and calendar year are the same. The exception is certain firms whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2022, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax Hits: 13
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf Cash Flow Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax collections based on recent transactions. Payment rules are simple and refunds are generally not paid because firms merely forward the tax year and calendar year are the same. The exception is certain firms whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2021, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax Hits: 13
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax collections based on recent transactions. Payment rules are simple and refunds are generally not paid because firms merely forward any taxes year and calendar year are the same. The exception is certain firms whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2020, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax year 2018 Hits: 13
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax collections based on recent transactions. Payment rules are simple and refunds are generally not paid because firms merely forward any taxes year and calendar year are the same. The exception is certain firms whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2019, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax year 2017 Hits: 13
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. The amount of additional SNAP benefits for Pennsylvania households is estimated to exceed $90 million per month. The value shown ($0.4 billion) represents four months (March to June) of emergency benefits.  The business tax cuts are national Hits: 13
MTR-2019-06.pdf Last July, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For June, General Fund collections exceeded estimate by $50.9 million revenues were under estimate by $11.6 million as a result of lower than predicted escheats collections (-$18.9 million). Monthly licenses and fees exceeded estimate in June due to receipt of a $10 million gaming license fee that was not Hits: 13
MTR-2018-07.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 based on: (1) the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the IFO treasury collections ($1 million) partially offset the weak escheats and other miscellaneous collections. July and August are smaller revenue collections months. September collections will include both CNIT and PIT quarterly estimated payments and should be a better indicator of how collections Hits: 13
MRU-2020-3.pdf the corresponding business closures and other mitigation efforts had a significant impact on March 2020 revenue collections. Compared to the monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019, March collections of $4.4 billion were $331.8 percent) below estimate. (See table on next page.) The IFO estimates that the virus contributed roughly $200 million to the monthly shortfall: (1) $50 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $90 million in processing delays (expected to Hits: 13
MQRE_FY24-25_08_2024.pdf Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2024-25 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2024-25 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense Fund Hits: 13
Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf Pennsylvania Job Gains Remain in Holding Pattern This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re- despite the transfer of federal funds. The year-over-year change in payroll jobs is similar for the latest three months of data at roughly 435,000 fewer payroll jobs, and has only modestly improved relative to the annual job loss Hits: 13
Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf Impact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re- Pennsylvania employment gains have stagnated. The year-over-year change in payroll jobs is nearly identical for the latest three months of data at roughly 440,000 fewer payroll jobs. (Note: This comparison uses non- seasonally adjusted data and assumes a Hits: 13
Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf PA Payroll Jobs Continue to Recover, but Significant Shortfall Remains This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the year-over-year (YOY) change in payroll jobs is -362,500, compared to roughly -410,000 for the two prior months. (See table below. This comparison uses non-seasonally adjusted data (i.e., actual amounts) and assumes a no-pandemic scenario Hits: 13
RTR-2014-12.pdf October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 5.6%.  Tax revenues increased by $287 million (12.2%) for the month and $746 million (6.1%) for the fiscal year. Some of the monthly revenue growth is attributable to a technical factor affecting the timing of personal income tax withholding deposits.  Corporate net Hits: 12
RTR-2014-05.pdf from the prior year, yet remain $40 million (2.0%) above the prior fiscal year-to-date. For the twelve- month period, remittances have been flat. • Financial institutions tax revenues increased by $30 million from the prior year due to atypical from the prior fiscal year-to-date. Nonmotor deposits declined by $3 million (-0.4%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively. Motor vehicle deposits increased by $7 million (6.9%), bringing the Hits: 12
RTR-2013-11.pdf million).  Sales and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits grew by $21 million (3.4%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 2.4% and 1.7%, respectively. Motor vehicle remittances decreased by $7 million (-7.6%). Fiscal year- million from last year (6.1%).  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $12 million (1.8%) for the month, and the twelve-month growth rate is 2.6%. Nonwithholding receipts decreased by $3 million (-10.5%). Despite this recent Hits: 12
RTR-2013-10.pdf income tax ($29 million).  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $3 million (2.4%). Estimated payments for the month declined by $28 million (38.9%), but final payments more than offset that decline with an increase of $31 million return.  Sales and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits grew by $16 million (2.4%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 2.9% and 1.4%, respectively. Motor vehicle remittances increased by $12 million (13.1%). Over the Hits: 12
Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf a decrease of 2.3% compared to collections for November 2011 (details on the next page). In the first five months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 4.4% to $9.79 billion. General Fund collections increased by 5.1% and 1.4% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Hits: 12
Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf 25.96 billion. General Fund collections increased by 4.2% and 2.2% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $134 million use tax receipts.  Corporate net income tax collections increased by $42 million (115%). Approximately $21 million collected in prior months was distributed to this tax from the corporate tax clearing account in May, accounting for some of the growth for Hits: 12
Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf 16.19 billion. General Fund collections increased by 4.3% and 2.0% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenue fell by $85 million (-5.0%) for the month, primarily due to a decline of $98 million in personal income tax collections.  Personal income tax receipts declined for Hits: 12
RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf health emergency that will impact the state economy. As part of the omnibus appropriations bill passed December 2022, the final month of SNAP emergency allotments is February 2023. Under emergency allotments (started April 2020), all households that qualify for SNAP received in the amount needed to bring them up to the maximum benefit for their household size or (2) $95 per month, whichever is greater. The latest published SNAP data for October 2022 show that 1.88 million residents received an average Hits: 12
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund Hits: 12
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf Communications Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I Frank Lill, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2023-24 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2023-24 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates for General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. The monthly estimates Hits: 12
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdf the Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All Items Philadelphia CPI-U is published on a bi-monthly basis, but four larger components that comprise half of the total CPI-U are published monthly. The metrics tracked (and CPI-U weight) are as follows (note: not all CPI-U components tracked; all growth rates Hits: 12
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf YOY) basis. The All Items Less Shelter category, which excludes housing and more accurately reflects actual consumer purchases during the month, grew 6.6% YOY after peaking at 6.8% in June. Many travel-related categories continue to record strong YOY based on the May 2021 Case-Shiller Index. Rental prices are “sticky” because the same renters are not surveyed every month and most renters enter leases for at least one full year. Landlords may also be hesitant to raise prices to Hits: 12
Labor_Market_Update_Sept_2021.pdf No Job Gains in August as Federal UC Benefits Neared Expiration This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the 9,900) sector. This deterioration may be attributable to an uptick in COVID cases related to the delta variant. The month-to-month change shows no change in the number of part- or full- time jobs in August compared to July Hits: 12
Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf Pennsylvania Payroll Jobs Record Strong Gains in June This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the summer and fall. Based on the latest data for June 2021, Pennsylvania payroll job creation improved notably relative to prior months. For June, the computed year-over-year change in payroll jobs is -394,500, compared to roughly -440,000 for Hits: 12
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. 2 IFO Reports and Analyses Monthly Reports: • Revenue Trends Report. Displays monthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period of the prior year. Presents three-month Hits: 12
RTR-2014-10.pdf prior fiscal year-to-date. Adjusted for the large inheritance tax payment, tax revenues increased by 2.1% for the month and 3.9% for the fiscal year.  Corporate net income tax revenues decreased by $23 million (-16.9%) compared over the prior fiscal year-to-date. Withholding, which comprises the majority of these revenues, posted one, three and twelve-month growth rates of 4.0%, 3.7% and 3.0%, respectively. Nonwitholding revenues increased by $1 million (0.8%) over Hits: 11
RTR-2014-01.pdf 0%) compared to January 2013. o Nonmotor vehicle deposits increased by $27 million (3.9%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. o Motor vehicle tax remittances declined by $3 million (-3.6% Fiscal year-to-date motor vehicle revenues are $36 million (5.4%) higher than last year. Over the last three months revenues declined by 0.3%, and the twelve-month growth rate is 3.3%.  Personal income tax remittances declined Hits: 11
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf 8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 Chester Carbon/Monroe/Pike Lancaster Montgomery Bradford/Sullivan Franklin/Fulton Col./Mont./Snyd./Un. York/Adams Northumberland Bucks Tioga Bedford Delaware Luzerne/Wyoming Wayne Centre Washington Arm./Indiana/Clarion Westmoreland Hunt./Mifflin to individuals with opioid use disorder or stimulant use disorder. Measures are collected at intake and again at a 6-month follow-up for SOR I, SOR II-year 1 and SOR II-year 2 grants. 17-18 18-19 19- Hits: 11
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf 25%) explain over 80% of increased sales. Pennsylvania Gaming Revenue Sets Record in March The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board released monthly gaming revenues for March 2021. Gaming revenues totaled $403.1 million, surpassing the previous monthly high of $320.2 million in October 2020. Gaming revenues include slot machines, tables games, internet gaming, sports wagering, fantasy Hits: 11
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf development of PBB plans or furnishing data for tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing or fiscal analysis to the extent that staff resources are available for that purpose. 1 IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports  Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of monthly and fiscal‐year‐to‐date General Fund revenues Hits: 11
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf loans) ▪ 1.86 million borrowers | $67 billion total debt ▪ Average balance: $35,400 | Median balance: $20,100 ▪ Average repayment? $300/month | $3,600/annual ▪ ~$7.0 billion/annual absolute max | likely closer to $2.5 billion October 3, 2023 2 Simple gain 3.5 years on forgiveness window, extra inflation erosion due to unusually high inflation (?) October 3, 2023 3 year months principal interest payment 2020 9 $1,942 $849 $2,792 2021 12 $2,693 $1,030 $3,722 2022 12 Hits: 11
RTR-2014-09.pdf revenues increased by $276 million (4.6%). • Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $96 million (25.2%) for the month. Quarterly and final payments increased by $81 million (25.4%) and $15 million (24.2%), respectively. For the fiscal year Withholding collections increased by $25 million (3.9%), bringing fiscal year-to-date growth to 3.8% and the twelve-month average to 2.9%. September quarterly payments grew by $5 million (1.6%), and annual payments declined by $1 million Hits: 10
RTR-2014-08.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For the second month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $1.8 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of $32 million was 3.5%.  Tax revenues increased by $33 million, or 1.9%. Fiscal year-to-date and recent twelve- month growth rates were 3.2% and 0.3%, respectively.  Personal income tax revenues increased by $22 million compared to Hits: 10
RTR-2014-06.pdf 8.8%) from the prior year. Estimated payments were $61 million (18.0%) higher than last June, but the three-month growth rate for the tax is negative (-1.9%) due to weak final payments. • Sales and use tax nonmotor revenues million (10.3%) and motor vehicle collections grew $13 million (13.2%). The strong growth in nonmotor deposits for the month is largely due to an interfund transfer; the underlying growth rate was 3.5%. • Personal income tax revenues increased by Hits: 10
Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf 14.56 billion. General Fund collections increased by 4.8% and 2.9% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenue grew by $176 million for the month, primarily due to an increase of $173 million in personal income tax collections.  Personal income tax receipts were robust Hits: 10
Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf 5.3%) partially offset decreases in personal income tax revenues totaling $75 million (-9.8%). For the most recent three-month period, tax revenues decreased by 0.2%.  Sales and use tax deposits increased by $39 million (5.3%). Nonmotor deposits increased by $30 million (4.9%) while motor vehicle deposits increased by $8 million (8.2%). The three-month average shows that sales and use tax revenues increased by 3.1%, and the twelve-month average increased by 1 Hits: 10
MRU_2021_09.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. General Fund collections of $4.00 billion in September were $551.4 million (16.0%) over estimate. The monthly differential was attributable to strength in all three major tax types: corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax Hits: 10
MRU_2020_11.pdf For November, revenue collections were $2.34 billion, which was $90.9 million above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The monthly outcome was due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections, which Hits: 10
MRU-2020-08.pdf On August 27, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 based on its official estimate released June 22. Compared to those estimates and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $392.3 million (6.3 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were $150.8 million (17.1 percent) above estimate due to overages in both non-motor vehicle (NMV Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdf article by the Wall Street Journal forecasts that 2023 U.S. home sales will be the weakest since 2008. A monthly report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that the inventory of U.S. homes for sale was at the lowest level ever recorded for the month of September. Limited inventory, rising prices and high mortgage rates are the main factors that drive a historic contraction in Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf Impact Fee Likely to Increase by Nearly $75 Million in 2022 The near-month settlement price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which Pennsylvania’s Impact Fee is based, is $5.84 per MMBtu for October. This is the highest monthly price recorded since enactment of the fee in 2011. National and regional prices recorded significant gains in 2021 due to Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdf This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: ▪ Number of Homes Listed Number of homes listed for sale during the month by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). In May, roughly 36,000 homes were listed for sale, 23.3% lower than the prior year. (See table below.) ▪ Number of Homes Sold Monthly number of homes sold. In May, approximately 11,000 homes were sold, a 17.3% decline from the prior year Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: ▪ Number of Homes Listed Number of homes listed for sale during the month by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). In March, a little over 33,200 homes were listed for sale, 19.8% lower than the prior year. (See table below.) ▪ Number of Homes Sold Monthly number of homes sold. In March, about 9,700 homes were sold, a 17.4% year-over-year decline from Hits: 10
Labor_Market_Update_October_2021.pdf years prior to COVID, the education sector added an average of 42,800 payroll jobs, but only 25,400 last month. For the government sector that includes local school districts, an average of 51,400 jobs were added, but only 31,100 last month. Some other sectors recorded monthly job losses using non-seasonally adjusted data (retail and wholesale trade, leisure and hospitality), and Hits: 10
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf with the federal provision that provides for the full expensing of eligible investment placed in service during the last four months of 2010 and all of calendar year 2011. Because that provision merely pulls tax deductions forward in time, future corporate history. Yet, investors maintained a guarded outlook as indicators provided mixed signals about the economy’s prospects. Events in subsequent months would confirm their apprehension. August witnessed the bankruptcy or near bankruptcy of three large mortgage lenders. 4 Large financial institutions Hits: 10
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Fargo 4.7% 8.0% 3.3% 2.4% PNC Bank 4.7% 8.1% 4.3% 1.7% Avg Monthly IHS Markit 330 495 86 -27 Change Payroll Wells Fargo 330 495 5 -38 Jobs (000s) PNC Bank 330 492 48 -17 Note: Job Gains for payroll employment only. Excludes self-employed. June 2022 is economic forecast issued in that month. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO Hits: 10
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf awareness of negative environmental 1 Act 23 of 2020 extends the prohibition “until July 1, 2021 or six months after the termination of the order issued by the Governor on March 6, 2020 published at 50 PA.B. 1644 (March 21 offices that represented over 6,500 stores statewide. Data from 1,500 stores showed that over a six-month period prior to the law’s enactment, approximately 551 million (435 million plastic and 116 million paper) disposable retail bags were distributed Hits: 9
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf reduced by a maximum of $47.5 billion in June, which ramps up to $95 billion in August and future months. If the Fed tapers by the maximum amount, then by the end of the year, its holdings will decline from the emergency allotments for the Supplemental Nutrition As- sistance Program (SNAP). This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. A family of four receives a maximum monthly benefit of $835. The amount for Hits: 9
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf reduced by a maximum of $47.5 billion in June, which ramps up to $95 billion in August and future months. If the Fed tapers by the maximum amount, then by the end of the year, its holdings will decline from the emergency allotments for the Supplemental Nutrition As- sistance Program (SNAP). This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. A family of four receives a maximum monthly benefit of $835. The amount for Hits: 9
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf is also partially advanceable. Beginning in July, the IRS will begin to advance up to 50% of the value in monthly installments. This could provide up to $3.3 billion to parents in Pennsylvania in the second half of CY 2021 to issue emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. The amount for CY 2021 ($1.4 billion) represents projections for the entire calendar Hits: 9
Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf 20.34 billion. General Fund collections increased by 2.3% and 2.0% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $74 million than offset declines in other tax revenue sources.  Corporation tax revenues increased by $95 million (4.2%) for the month and $372 million (10.2%) for the fiscal year-to-date. o Corporate net income tax and financial institutions tax Hits: 9
RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdf Agriculture (USDA) show that the number of SNAP recipients exceeded 2.0 million for November 2023. Compared to the same month prior to the pandemic (November 2019), total monthly benefits paid increased 76%. The expansion is motivated by an increase in the number of recipients (+16%) and the average Hits: 9
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf This research brief updates an original release in July 2022 to show data for two more recent months (job openings, jobs, unemployment rates and labor force) or one quarter (employment by age group). Otherwise, the text is largely labor demand intensity is the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed. 2 Job openings data are published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is known as JOLTS (Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Hits: 9
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf labor demand intensity is the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed. 2 Job openings data are published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is known as JOLTS (Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey 16 or older who are working (includes self- employed) or actively seeking employment. It is based on survey data published monthly at the state and national levels. Table 2 presents the LFPR for May 2022 (latest data) for Pennsylvania and the Hits: 9
MRU_2024_09.pdf General Fund collections were $4.16 billion, +$38 million (+0.9%) higher than the IFO’s official estimate for the month. (The IFO estimate for September was $72 million lower than the administration’s official estimate.) For the fiscal-year-to- above last year and $41 million (+2.6%) more than projected.  Withholding revenues were $1.01 billion for the month, an increase of $36 million (+3.7%) from September 2023. FYTD withholding collections are $21 million (+0.7%) above estimate Hits: 9
MRU_2022_02.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues exceeded estimate by $256.7 million (11.8%) for February and by $2.46 billion (9.4%) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by stronger than expected personal income tax (PIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Monthly PIT Hits: 9
MRU_2021_10.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues exceeded the October estimate by $233.6 million (9.1%) and by $948.1 million (8.5%) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) estimate. The monthly outcome was primarily due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections Hits: 9
MRU_2021_04.pdf General Fund revenue collections were $3.96 billion in April, $277.2 million (-6.5%) lower than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly shortage was primarily due to lower than expected personal income tax (PIT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund Hits: 9
MRU_2021_02.pdf In February, General Fund revenue collections of $2.68 billion were $509.7 million (23.4 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The overage was largely 1.1 percent) above estimate. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections were $1.8 million (2.6 percent) over the monthly projections for February due to stronger than expected estimated payments ($7.7 million, 30.9 percent), which was partially offset Hits: 9
MRU_2021_01.pdf For January, General Fund revenue collections were $2.66 billion, which were $245.8 million (-8.5 percent) below the monthly projections associated with the revised Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly shortfall was the largely the result of a temporary shift in personal income tax (PIT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date Hits: 9
MRU-2022-10.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for October were $276 official estimate, and are $860.7 million (7.1%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $88.0 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The monthly overage is primarily due to Hits: 9
MRU-2022-08.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) recently released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022 -23. General Fund collections exceeded the IFO ’s official August estimate by $103 3.8%) and are $161.5 million (3.0%) above estimate for the fiscal -year -to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $39.8 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The monthly overage was largely due to Hits: 9
MRU-2021-12.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues surpassed estimate by $564.4 million (17.2%) for December and by $1.76 billion (8.5%) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was primarily due to higher than expected collections in all three of the largest revenue sources: corporate net income Hits: 9
MRU-2020-09.pdf September revenue collections of $3.26 billion were $347.3 million (11.9 percent) higher than the monthly projection associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The difference was attributable to sales and and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $739.6 million (8.1 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were $132.9 million (15.4 percent) above estimate due to strong non-motor vehicle (NMV) and motor Hits: 9
MRU-2020-07.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2020 -21. For July, General Fund collections were $4.10 billion and $1.77 of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July monthly collections exceeded the prior year total by $154.8 million, or 6.6 percent. Revenues were likely bolstered by pent- Hits: 9
MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdf Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I Frank Lill, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2023-24 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2023-24 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Hits: 9
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund Hits: 9
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly esti- mates for Motor License and Lottery Fund Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf June Retail Spending Increased 6.8% in Pennsylvania The U.S. Census Bureau recently released monthly state retail sales for June. Pennsylvania spending on automotive and other vehicle dealers (11.9%), food and beverage (12.0% 0.5%) and clothing and accessories (-25.6%) spending recorded declines. The U.S. Census Bureau also released the advance monthly retail sales for September. National monthly retail sales grew 7.1% from the previous September, signaling continued strength in consumer Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: ▪ Number of Homes Listed Number of homes listed for sale during the month by the National Realtors Association (NAR). In April, a little under 35,500 homes were listed for sale, 1.3% lower than the prior year. (See table below.) ▪ Number of Homes Sold Monthly number of homes sold. In April, about 9,100 homes were sold, a 20.1% decline from the prior year Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf of inflation for goods and services that consumers actually purchase. PA Total Wage Growth Accelerates Based on the latest four months of data, growth of wages paid to Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the state economy received a significant growth. Compared to calendar year (CY) 2020, adjusted withholding data suggest annual wage growth of 9.0% for the four months of February to May 2021. However, due to the impact of COVID-19, a better comparison is to CY 2019 Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf National Wage Gains Surge On May 28, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released monthly data on U.S. personal income (NIPA Table 2.6). For March and April (latest two months), the data show that wages-salaries grew by 1.0% each month relative to the prior month, which is very Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania impact fee is based, settled at $1.50 for July. This is the lowest monthly price in over 20 years. The average price for 2020 through July is $1.79, which is a 36.5% trends related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Pennsylvania households that held a mortgage reported that 83.2% paid the previous month’s mortgage, which was lower than the national average (86.1%). A higher proportion of Pennsylvania households deferred their previous Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf contraction at the end of the year as inflation accelerated. For manufacturing, the latest data point shows contraction, but prior months show mixed results. For professional and business services, December data show real growth, while prior months show contraction. Results for the large education and healthcare sector are mixed, but show recent contraction. The finance and real Hits: 9
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf is also partially advanceable. Beginning in July, the IRS will begin to advance up to 50% of the value in monthly installments. This could provide up to $3.3 billion to parents in Pennsylvania in the second half of CY 2021 to issue emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. The amount for CY 2021 ($1.4 billion) represents projections for the entire calendar Hits: 9
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf 10 percent since the start of December, (2) a manufacturing index that has declined in 10 of the past 12 months and (3) declining corporate profits. However, many underlying economic fundamentals remain solid. For Pennsylvania, positive fundamentals include:  A stable or national economies will enter into a recession in the near future. However, downside risks have increased in the past month, and many national forecasts now place the risk of a mild recession at 15 to 20 percent. FY 2015‐16 Hits: 9
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf Air Information Management System (AIMS) report required for the application.  Annual credit awards could be tied to an average monthly wholesale electricity price. Credits not awarded under the $20 million cap could be rolled forward for award in future years of the industry is dependent, in part, on the average wholesale price of electricity. Figure 5.2 displays the average monthly PJM wholesale price from January 2017 to December 2021. 18 There is considerable variation, with a notable reduction in 2020 Hits: 8
RTR-2014-02.pdf 8%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date.  Total corporate taxes decreased by $6 million (-9.8%) for the month. Insurance premiums tax revenues were $6 million (55.5%) higher than last year and $2 million (4.8%) over the 35 million (4.7%) for motor vehicle sales.  Personal income tax remittances grew $30 million (4.2%) for the month and $127 million (1.9%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date. Withholding, the majority of personal income tax, increased Hits: 8
RTR-2013-12.pdf and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits decreased by $15 million (-2.1%) over last December, bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates down to 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. Motor vehicle tax remittances increased by $9 million (10.9% million from last year (6.8%).  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $11 million (1.5%) for the month, and the fiscal year-to-date growth rate is 2.2%. Nonwithholding receipts increased by $2 million (1.8%). Fiscal Hits: 8
Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf 23.93 billion. General Fund collections increased by 2.0% and 2.2% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $162.4 vehicle revenues fell by $30 million (-4.4%), while motor vehicle receipts increased by $5 million (4.6%). The three month moving averages for the nonmotor and motor categories are negative at -0.8% and -0.9%, respectively. Change in General Hits: 8
RB_2024_05_ACP.pdf the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) launched the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), which provides a discount of up to $30 per month toward internet service for eligible households and up to $75 per month for households on qualified Tribal lands. Eligible households could also receive a one-time discount of up to $100 to Hits: 8
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf and grew by 33.2% (+$132 million). This growth is partially due to the requirement that PACENET cardholders pay a monthly benchmark payment if they do not elect Part D coverage. In 2020, 97.8% of program enrollees have Part D 36% % RON subjects interviewed within 72 hours 5 % RON reports closed within 60 days 6 74% 78% 71% 73% 74% Monthly average cases per investigator 7 -- -- 7.3 -- -- Financial assets recovered or protected 5 7 PDA collected this data once in Hits: 8
MRU_2023_09.pdf official estimate, driven by shortfalls in personal income tax (PIT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and inheritance tax. (The IFO monthly estimate was $23.4 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor.) September revenues decreased $161.3 million (-3 major tax types include: ▪ PIT collections were $1.53 billion, or $81.7 million (-5.1%) below estimate for the month. September quarterly payments (for tax year 2023) continued to demonstrate considerable weakness, declining $132.4 million (-21.0%) from September Hits: 8
MRU_2021_03.pdf General Fund revenue collections for March were $4.84 billion, $284.2 million (6.2 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was largely the result of higher than expected personal income tax (PIT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and inheritance Hits: 8
MRU-2023-04.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for April were $434 official estimate, and are $2.53 billion (7.1%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $383.3 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The monthly overage is primarily due to Hits: 8
MRU-2022-07.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. For July, General Fund collections were $2.70 billion, or $4.0 withholding to the Election Integrity Restricted Account ($45.0 million), collections increased $83.2 million (3.1%) from the same month in the prior year. Growth (adjusted) in PIT and SUT was offset by a reduction in corporate net income tax Hits: 8
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf Analyst I Michaela Bowers, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates of General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates Hits: 8
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf unclear whether these trends will impact the full holiday shopping season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday online sales were strong. Monthly Economic Update November 2023 Year-Over-Year (YOY) Growth Rates for Pennsylvania Debt Balances by Type Note: 2023 is the 6% 9% 12% 15% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Credit Cards Auto Loans Student Loans Mortgages Monthly Data Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Unemployment Rate (U3) 1 3.8% 3.5% 3 Hits: 8
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf the Shelter component provides a more accurate measure of real-time consumer inflation because it reflects actual purchases during the month, and the data are not imputed. Moreover, analysts have noted the disconnect between the Shelter component and very strong gains production growth has also been modest in 2021, reducing a supply glut that restrained prices in prior years. The near-month settlement price of gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which Pennsylvania’s impact fee schedule is based Hits: 8
Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf 13,003 12,969 301 0.2% -34 -0.1% Note: Forecasts are preliminary and will be revised later this month. AAGR is average annual growth rate during time period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. Annual Growth Rates gains Where Did the Workers Go? Early retirements – but only national survey data available ▪ Rate of retirements double first 15 months of pandemic (Oxford Economics) ▪ But how much is a timing issue? | When would they have retired? More workers stay at Hits: 8
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf has filled vacant positions and bolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary at the request of members of the General Assembly, provide economic, revenue or fiscal analysis. IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays Hits: 8
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf has filled vacant positions and bolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary at the request of members of the General Assembly, provide economic, revenue or fiscal analysis. IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays Hits: 8
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf 31, 2022 17 Student Loan Repayments Student Loan Debt (federal) ~$70 billion Number Borrowers 1.83 million Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Amount $640 million Share That Defer 80% Monthly Payment Deferred $510 million Monthly Sales Tax Impact ~$10 million Moratorium extended Hits: 8
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. Reports The IFO publishes monthly reports highlighting the latest economic releases and revenue trends. In addition, the office publishes a quarterly report that reviews the and Gasoline Prices • Inflation is forecasted to remain low. Restrained economic growth will not put much upward pressure on prices. • Monthly average gasoline prices fluctuated between $3.20 and $3.99 per gallon in 2011 and 2012. Consumer Price Index (PA- Hits: 8
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf hoc postretirement adjustment may be provided on a temporary basis, where the increase is a one-time lump sum or monthly amount payable for a finite period. An ad hoc postretirement adjustment may also be provided on a permanent basis where of the change in the cost-of-living for retirement benefit recipients is the Consumer Price Index, which is issued monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor. The Consumer Price Index is a measure Hits: 8
RTR-May 2012.pdf 6.1 325.9% 15.4 297.1% 256.6% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% 53.0 269.7% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period Hits: 7
RTR-Mar 2012.pdf 3.6 443.8% 11.3 256.6% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% -79.5% 44.4 250.9% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period Hits: 7
RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf 15.1 747.3% 27.0 438.3% 256.6% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% 66.4 321.8% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c a compared to the same period in Hits: 7
RTR-Feb 2012.pdf 3.9 146.5% 11.6 224.0% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% -79.5% 41.5 115.4% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period Hits: 7
RTR-Apr 2012.pdf 5.8 220.8% 13.2 227.0% 256.6% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% 48.4 258.7% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period Hits: 7
Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf increased by 3.5% to $28.65 billion. General Fund collections increased by 2.5% over the most recent three- month period. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages. • Tax revenues declined by $79 million (-3.0% to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source June 2013 FY 12-13 to Date 3 month rolling 12 month rolling Corporate Net Income -$40.2 $402.1 $54.1 $402.1 percent change -8.5% 19 Hits: 7
Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf 3.9 315.1% 12.5 219.8% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% -79.5% 39.2 65.8% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c a compared to the same period in the Hits: 7
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf second half of CY 2021, up to 50% of the tax credit will be advanced to eligible filers in six monthly installments ($250/month for children age six and older, and $300/month for children under age six). The IFO estimates that approximately $3 Hits: 7
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf funds remain in the budget for use in future years. 2021 2022 Lives covered (000s) 429.1 449.4 Average Monthly Rate With waiver $375 $351 No waiver $394 $372 Annual Customer Savings Total ($ millions) $102.9 $156.9 Per life lowest cost silver plan for a 21-year old, non-smoking individual. Annual customer savings represents all customers, not just monthly rate example policyholders. 2022 values are projected. Product and Rate Review | Page 10 Statewide Benchmarks Property & Life/ Casualty Annuities Health Hits: 7
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf served for short sentences to state prison more predictable. For inmates with sentences to state prison of 24 months or less, this proposal would institute a presumptive release to parole at the minimum sentence. These inmates would be released to state proposals would directly impact the inmate population. Specifically, by granting presumptive parole to individuals with sentences of 24 months or less, the reforms would reduce the inmate population by diverting individuals with shorter sentences from state prisons to community supervision. This Hits: 7
MRU_2024_3.pdf of $32.80 billion are $284 million (0.9%) higher than anticipated. Revenue highlights for the major tax types include: ▪ Monthly corporate income tax collections were $686 million, $30 million (-4.2%) below projections, due to estimated payments (for tax year million (-20.9%) below estimate. Final payments (for tax year 2023) exceeded estimate by $68 million (+27.7%) for the month. ▪ Sales and use tax (SUT) collections for the month were $1.11 billion, $38 million (+3.5%) above estimate, with Hits: 7
MRU_2024_07.pdf Later this month, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. Therefore, this update does not include comparisons to July estimates and only Hits: 7
MRU_2023_10.pdf and increased 37.3% from October 2022. Estimated payments exceeded the estimate by $3.2 million (+4.6%) for the month. ▪ PIT collections were $1.31 billion, or $32.8 million (+2.6%) above estimate for the month. That result was largely driven by annual payments (primarily extension payments for tax year 2022), which were $21.7 million Hits: 7
MRU_2023_05.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for May were -$84 official estimate, and are $2.45 billion (6.3%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $38.8 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor.) Weaker than anticipated corporate net income tax Hits: 7
MRU_2022_12.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for December were $429 official estimate, and are $1.16 billion (6.3%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $109.9 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The implementation of the Department of Revenue Hits: 7
MRU_2022_03.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund collections exceeded the March estimate (+$579.2 million, 11.6%) and are $3.04 billion (9.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by strong sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT Hits: 7
MRU_2021_05.pdf General Fund revenue collections were $3.95 billion in May, $1.33 billion (50.8%) higher than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was primarily due to personal income tax (PIT) annual payments. Fiscal-year-to- date (FYTD) General Fund collections are Hits: 7
MRU-2023-01.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for January were $32 official estimate, and are $1.19 billion (5.4%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $238.4 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) Due to a processing delay on the Hits: 7
MRU-2022-11.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for November were $129 official estimate, and are $731.8 million (4.9%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $72.9 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The implementation of the Department of Revenue Hits: 7
MRU-2022-09.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for September were $422 official estimate, and are $583.9 million (6.4%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $286.6 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The monthly overage can be attributed primarily Hits: 7
MRU-2022-06.pdf General Fund revenue collections of $4.24 billion in June were $718.5 million (20.4%) higher than monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) last August for fiscal year 2021-22. Collections for the entire fiscal expectations. CNIT revenues reached $970.0 million in June which exceeded the estimate by $335.9 million (53.0%). The monthly performance was due to higher than expected estimated (+$294.6 million, 58.0%) and final (+$41.3 million, 32.7% Hits: 7
MRU-2022-05.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund collections for May surpassed estimate by $459.1 million (16.6%) and are $5.50 billion (14.3%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was due to strength in sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax Hits: 7
MRU-2022-01.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues surpassed estimate by $440.6 million (14.0%) for January and by $2.20 billion (9.2%) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was primarily due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections. SUT Hits: 7
MRU-2021-06.pdf June General Fund revenue collections were $3.77 billion, $350.7 million (10.3%) more than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was mainly due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. Fiscal year 2020- Hits: 7
MRU-2020-10.pdf Revenue collections for October were $2.59 billion, which was $275.2 million (11.9 percent) above the monthly projection associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The key variances are attributable to sales federal transfer payments distributed in 2020 Q2 and Q3, (2) a significant increase in home refinancings that likely lowered household monthly payments/increased cash flow and (3) a shift in spending from out-of-state travel, gasoline, etc., to home furnishings Hits: 7
MRU-2020-04.pdf Revenue collections of $2.18 billion in April were below monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $2.16 billion (-49.8 percent), largely due 7 percent below collections for the same period in the prior fiscal year. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for the month were significantly below estimate (-$1.48 billion), with the entire shortfall attributable to the virus. The IFO estimates that roughly Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf Medical Care inflation from 2.8% in June to 0.0% in August. Also notable is the modest growth in monthly rents (2.6%) despite data from other sources that suggest strong growth (see article below) and no acceleration for homeowner data, the expiration of the national eviction moratorium on August 26, 2021 could have implications for rental prices in future months. Monthly Economic Update September 2021 CPI-U Year-Over-Year Change Feb Apr Jun Aug Weight All Items 1.0% Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf 4%, surpassing the U.S. average for the first time since February 2020. Metro level data are published every other month. For February, the Philadelphia metro region inflation rate (7.3%) fell short of the U.S. rate (7.9%) by far, the largest component of the CPI (35.4% for Philadelphia) is Shelter, which reflects rent imputed to homeowners and monthly rental payments. In February, the Philadelphia Shelter component increased by 0.3 ppts more than the U.S. average (5 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf growth will likely accelerate due to several factors. First, the BLS notes that gasoline price data are collected throughout the month, but is likely to be front loaded towards the beginning of a month. Hence, the February data likely reflect minimal impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict (February 24 incursion date). Second, the large Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf 1,574%. The large increase in government support temporarily offset the decline in wages and salaries (-8.5%) for the month. Personal consumption fell 16.9% in April as states continued to implement stay-at-home measures to help contain the 48%. Consumers who live paycheck-to-paycheck had an MPC around 68%, while those who generally save more of their monthly income had an MPC of 23% in the two weeks following the receipt of the payment. After the two-week Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf Demand and Accumulated Savings In late November, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified that inflation would persist longer than anticipated. This monthly update presents data for factors that drive that outcome, and the impact on national and state economic metrics. For context Powell testified that the Federal Reserve is reconsidering its schedule for the taper of debt purchases and future interest rates. Monthly Economic Update December 2021 Levels YOY Growth Rate Item Period 2019 2020 2021 19-20 20-21 1 Philly CPI- Hits: 7
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf is consulting with Board members regarding the time frame for transmittal of those plans and reviews. The IFO also prepares monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinates analyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19 (May 2018) Official Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19 (June 2018) Revenue Estimate Performance (July 2018) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates (July 2018) Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2018) Mid-Year Update FY 2018-19 Hits: 7
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf scheduled to transmit four PBB plans and five tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 (May 2019) Official Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 (June 2019) Revenue Estimate Performance (July 2019) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates (August 2019) Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2019) Performance Based Budgeting PBB Plan: Department Hits: 7
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf 24 . Sept . 2013 6 Federal Reserve Current Policy: QE3. o Sept 2012: Commits to purchase $85 billion of securities per month. o Hold down long-term interest rates such as mortgages. o Really: induce some inflation. Fed likely to “taper” or reduce purchases during next few months. o Long term: big issue is how the Fed will manage the sale of the assets it holds in its Hits: 6
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf gains are realized. Moving forward, other modules will need additional funding to implement (e.g., responsible party assessments, appeals processing). Month/Year Items Migrated Into PATH January 2019 * Motor and alternative fuel taxes * International fuel tax agreement (IFTA) tax October 2019 1 -- -- -- 78% 84% 80% Outreach New businesses successfully contacted by field agents 4 -- -- -- 58 1,633 1,434 Delinquent 3 months out (%) -- -- -- 33% 38% 13% Delinquent 6 months out (%) -- -- -- 39% 36% 16% Delinquent 1 year out (%) -- -- -- 40% 44% -- Audits per auditor Hits: 6
Newsstand_March_2020.pdf New York State. The current general business conditions index fell 34 points to -21.5. This was the largest one-month drop in the survey’s history and the index’s lowest level since 2009. Manufacturing firms' expectations for business conditions six months from now also fell. The index for future business conditions declined 22 points to 1.2. Respondents were split regarding Hits: 6
MRU_2024_2.pdf million (-0.1%) lower than anticipated and are essentially meeting estimate. Revenue highlights for the major tax types include:  Monthly CNIT collections were $139.3 million, $29.0 million (+26.3%) above projections, due entirely to final payments which were $34.5 million (+57.2%) above estimate.  SUT collections for the month were $1.01 billion, $23.8 million (+2.4%) above estimate, with an overage in non-motor vehicle collections (+29 Hits: 6
MRU_2024_1.pdf and Treasury collections. The IFO estimate for January was $104.9 million higher than the administration’s recertified estimate. This month’s collections were $342.4 million (9.6%) above collections for January 2023. Roughly $243 million of the increase was due to a shortfall in quarterly payments (-$314.7 million, -18.7%) for tax year 2023. ▪ CNIT collections for the month were $210.4 million, $45.1 million (27.3%) above estimate, due to final payments which were $45.3 million Hits: 6
MRU_2023_12.pdf 208.2 million (-25.1%) below estimate. Final payments exceeded the estimate by $130.8 million (+104.6%) for the month. ▪ Monthly PIT collections were $1.25 billion, $49.5 million (-3.8%) below estimate. The shortfall was primarily the result of Hits: 6
MRU_2023_07.pdf Later this month, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Therefore, this update does not include comparisons to July estimates, and only Hits: 6
MRU_2023_06.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for June were $285.3 million (8.4%) above the IFO’s official estimate. (The IFO monthly estimate was $101.6 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) Collections for the fiscal year totaled $44 Hits: 6
MRU_2023_02.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for February were $407 official estimate, and are $1.60 billion (6.5%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $55.2 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections for Hits: 6
MRU_2021_11.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues exceeded the November estimate by $248.2 million (3.9%) and by $1.20 billion (6.8%) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was primarily due to stronger than anticipated sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. Monthly SUT collections were $119.6 Hits: 6
MRU_2021_08.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. For August, General Fund collections were $2.57 billion, or $71.5 million (2.9%) over estimate. The monthly overage was almost entirely due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Fiscal-year- Hits: 6
MRU_2021_07.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. For July, General Fund collections were $2.70 billion, or $1.40 prior year by $216.2 million (8.7%). Sales and use tax (SUT) revenues were $1.24 billion for the month, a $18.5 million (-1.5%) reduction from the prior year. Motor vehicle collections were $29.3 million (-15.3% Hits: 6
MRU-2020-12.pdf For December, revenue collections were $3.68 billion, which were $774.4 million (26.6 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The overage was primarily due to stronger tax (CNIT) collections and one-time transfers under Act 114 of 2020 (not included in the IFO’s Official Estimate). Monthly CNIT collections of $760.9 million were $333.8 million (78.2 percent) over estimate due to higher than anticipated Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf 8%). The spike in used car prices is also visible in the Philadelphia-area CPI-U. During the past two months, used car prices increased at an average rate of 4.6% per month. According to an article by Edmunds, consumers are turning to used cars due to increased consumer fiscal responsibility, favorable interest Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf respectively. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government allowed forbearance on mortgage and student loans for six months (renewable), while many auto loan businesses offered optional forbearance. The New York Federal Reserve Bank reported on the status of reported that existing home sales reached a new 14- year high in the U.S., increasing for the fifth consecutive month in October. For 2020 Q3, the median single-family home price was $313,500, up 12% over last year. The Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf is expected to improve after the COVID-19 vaccine distribution. This could boost both demand and supply in the upcoming months, and new listings would enhance inventory in a tight housing market. 2020 Home Prices and Low Interest Rates Drove High professional and business services (+12,100, +1.6%), retail trade (+5,600, +1.0%) and arts-entertainment (+500, +0.8%). Monthly Economic Update March 2021 Monthly Data Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7 Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf million gallons of gasoline in June 2022. At higher prices, drivers will spend $740 million more on gasoline for the month. Most of the higher spending will flow out of Pennsylvania to states that have production and refining operations. Based on to shift a notably higher share of their spending to gasoline and away from taxable and non-taxable discretionary purchases. Monthly Economic Update June 2022 Central Atlantic Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Prices Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. $1.00 $2 Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf in December On January 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the month of December for the U.S. and various metro regions. For the U.S., the year-over-year (YOY) growth driven inflation will continue until these excess savings are reduced further or higher interest rates begin to restrain economic growth. Monthly Economic Update January 2022 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf the level was $4.1 trillion. The Fed recently detailed plans to shrink the balance sheet by $95 billion per month starting in May. China continues its zero-COVID policy and has effectively shut down certain major industrial centers. A key inflation. Some analysts project a “growth recession,” where the economy does not contract, but expands only at a modest rate. Monthly Economic Update April 2022 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2019.1 2019.3 2020.1 2020.3 2021.1 Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI-U dropped 0.4% in March (seasonally adjusted) compared to the prior month. The energy (-5.8%), apparel (-2.0%) and transportation services (-1.9%) categories recorded the largest declines. Despite the suspension increased 0.2%. U.S. oil prices were also impacted by the pandemic and business closures; prices recorded an unprecedented monthly decline (-54%). Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, March consumer prices declined 0.1% from February. Monthly Economic Update Hits: 6
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf 4, 2022 15 Student Loan Repayments Student Loan Debt (federal) ~$70 billion Number Borrowers 1.83 million Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Amount $640 million Share That Defer 80% Monthly Payment Deferred $510 million Monthly Sales Tax Impact ~$10 million Moratorium extended Hits: 6
Pensions paid firefighter, ambulance service or rescue squad member, or law enforcement officer in an amount equal to the decedent's monthly salary (adjusted annually by an amount equal to the increase in the Consumer Price Index), less the amount of any to June 30, 2007, the previous one-year window created by Act 43 of 2003. Act 43 established a twelve-month period, or "window," following enactment of the legislation during which a county retirement board subject to the provisions of the Hits: 6
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf CY) 2020. Therefore, both the state (FY 2020-21) and local (FY 2019-20) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2020) measure to which they are compared. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic data for state liquor store profits and outstanding debt are from 2021 State Government Finances. 4 The adjustment uses state monthly revenue data compiled by the Urban Institute and compares amounts received in relevant months without shifts (July 2019 for personal Hits: 5
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf made by a “requesting officer” as defined by statute. Moreover, these requests would likely not be completed until the summer months. Senator Haywood requested the estimated public assistance savings that would result from a higher minimum wage. According to the FY will be included in the IFO’s analysis of the Governor’s revenue proposals that will be released later this month. Senator Vogel requested information regarding the long-term stability of transfers to the Pennsylvania House Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement (PHARE Hits: 5
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf Journal Survey (April), 61% of economists surveyed project that a recession will occur at some point during the next 12 months. However, in July 2022, 49% of economists surveyed had projected a recession for the upcoming year which did not occur has been extended nine times. The analysis assumes that 1.9 million borrowers with an average payment of $300 per month ($6.7 billion per annum) will begin repayments this fall. If one-third of those repayments would have been spent Hits: 5
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf first week of September ▪ Potential infrastructure package and tax changes excluded Other miscellaneous assumptions ▪ Supply constraints ease during next several months ▪ Inflation is temporary and peaks in late summer 2021 ▪ No major correction in stock or housing markets May 26, 2021 10.3 4.9 2.0 Related Points About 30% to 60% of EIPs spent. Most of that within 3 months. Most unemployment compensation is spent. Nearly 75% of non-PPP stimulus to residents with < $50k income. Per capita credit card Hits: 5
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf study finds that the pass-through effect on prices from higher minimum wages is entirely concentrated in the month the new minimum wage becomes effective, and the impact on prices is smaller than estimated by existing research. While previous research had The authors conclude that the movement to a $13.00 minimum wage yielded lower incomes of $74 per month for the average low-wage worker (reflects lower employment and reduced hours). It should be noted that some researchers strongly disagree with Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf Journal Survey (April), 61% of economists surveyed project that a recession will occur at some point during the next 12 months. Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Table 1.2 displays the IFO economic forecast used for this initial revenue estimate and the most has been extended nine times. The analysis assumes that 1.83 million borrowers with an average payment of $350 per month ($7.7 billion per annum) will begin repayments this fall. If one-third of those repayments would have been spent Hits: 5
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf income over $100,000. 1 When repayments begin, the analysis assumes that the average Pennsylvania borrower will remit $300 per month, so that repayments across all borrowers total $6.7 billion per annum. 2 That figure could also approximate the maximum the federal government), the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the repayment pause cost is $5 billion per month and $195 billion total due to foregone interest payments alone. 5 Those estimates do not include additional erosion in the Hits: 5
RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdf authority to impose such a restriction. The Princeton University Eviction Lab project compiles state renter eviction filing data on a monthly basis. 1 In the figure below, the black line displays Pennsylvania pre-COVID “baseline” eviction filings for each month, using data from 2016-2018. From 2020 to 2022, the state recorded over 51,200 fewer eviction filings than the Hits: 5
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf amount of funds that can be borrowed through the PPP is equal to 2.5 times the firm’s average monthly payroll costs or $10 million, whichever is lower. 4 See https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares-act/assistance-for- employment gains of 3.2 to 4.8 million jobs (4.5 to 6.8 percent) in its first three months, at an average cost of $109,000 to $164,000 per job. 7  The program boosted employment at PPP- Hits: 5
QRR_2017Q3.pdf 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JULY TO SEPTEMBER Fiscal Year 2017-18 Each fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes monthly breakdowns of its annual esti- mates for the General Fund (page 2), and quarterly breakdowns for the Motor License Fund also provides context for the vari- ances between estimates and actual collections. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on Hits: 5
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf late January.  Office Does Not Make Policy Recommendations. 12.Feb.2015 3 The Independent Fiscal Office  Two Regular Monthly Reports. • Monthly Economic Report. • Monthly Revenue Trends Report.  Special Studies (at request of Gen. Assembly): • HB 1776 and SB 76 – Property Hits: 5
Newsstand_2018_November.pdf noted that natural gas prices “have climbed more than 50% this year – with most of that happening in the last month…” In Pennsylvania, spot prices at regional hubs, as tracked by Bentek Energy, show similar trends. For the month of October, the weighted average spot price was up 192.4 percent from the prior year. For the first three Hits: 5
MRU_2024_08.pdf Revenue highlights for the major tax types include: Sales and use tax (SUT) collections were $1.21 billion for the month, a $53 million (+4.6%) increase from the prior year. Motor vehicle collections of $116 million for August were $9 are $811 million, $101 million (+14.3%) more than anticipated. Highlights include: ▪ Inheritance tax collections of $185 million for the month were $58 million (+45.8%) above estimate. FYTD revenues are $60 million (+23.7%) above estimate. ▪ August realty tax transfer Hits: 5
MRU_2024_04.pdf than offset the shortfall in estimated payments (-$438 million, -16.8%).  Sales and use tax (SUT) collections for the month were $1.21 billion, $4 million (-0.3%) below estimate due to a shortfall in non-motor vehicle collections (-$21 are higher than estimated by $117 million (+1.0%) due to non -motor vehicle collections (+$162 million, +1.5%).  Monthly PIT collections of $2.95 billion were below estimate by $95 million (-3.1%) due to lower than expected annual Hits: 5
MRU_2023_11.pdf 2022) which were $74.8 million (+68.0%) above estimate and 54.3% higher than collections in the prior year. § Monthly PIT collections were $1.19 billion, $40.1 million ( -3.3%) below estimate. The shortfall was the result of lower in November 2022, withholding revenues increased 1.3% from the prior year. Combined quarterly and annual PIT collections for the month exceeded estimate by $5.3 million (+8.9%). FYTD PIT collections are $6.27 billion, $100.0 million ( -1.6% Hits: 5
MRU_2022_04.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund collections exceeded the April estimate by $2.00 billion (44.4%) and are $5.04 billion (14.2%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was largely due to very strong personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments. PIT collections Hits: 5
MRU-2023-03.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for March were $494 official estimate, and are $2.10 billion (6.9%) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $5.3 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor.) March corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections Hits: 5
MRU-2020-05.pdf May revenue collections of $2.11 billion fell below monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $502.6 million (-19.3 percent) due to in various revenue sources. May fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.70 billion (-8.4 percent) below estimate. Monthly sales and use tax (SUT) collections were below estimate by $282.9 million or 28.8 percent in May, with Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf October was 5.6%.) The Philadelphia CPI less Shelter growth rate is the highest rate for that series since 1980. Monthly Economic Update November 2021 Monthly Data Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sept-21 Oct-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.9% 6.5% 6.4% Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf April 12. However, the number of businesses reporting a temporary or permanent shut down fell to 8% from 16% a month prior. More than 81% of surveyed firms reported seeking a Small Business Administration Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan. By May Zillow forecast as of May 12, but Zillow may update the forecast in the future when more data become available. Monthly Economic Update May 2020 Monthly Data Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Unemployment Rate 1 4 Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf 9%. If food and energy are excluded, then average price levels increased by 1.2% relative to the prior year. Monthly Economic Update January 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7.4% 6.6% Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf to a December 2020 analysis from mortgage-data firm Black Knight, an increase of 35.1% over the prior year. Monthly Economic Update February 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7.4% 6.8% Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf been recovered. However, the pace of the recovery is slowing. In July, Pennsylvania added 53,400 jobs from the prior month after adding 227,300 and 217,400 in May and June, respectively. The unemployment rate ticked up from 13.2% of August 9, 2020. Similar to the U.S., small business activity in Pennsylvania has generally deteriorated since July 1. Monthly Economic Update August 2020 Monthly Data Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Unemployment Rate 1 16 Hits: 5
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf impact fee schedule will decrease by $5,000 per well (horizontal) compared to CY 2017 levels. For the first six months of 2018, the price has ranged Independent Fiscal Office June 2018 3  The Fee Decrease scenario assumes an average impact fee, if it does not produce more than, on average, 90 Mcf of gas per day in any one month during the calendar year. 6 The PUC contends that a well is subject to the fee unless its production is Hits: 5
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf impact fee schedule will increase by $5,000 per well (horizontal) compared to CY 2016 levels. For the first seven months of 2017, the NYMEX price ranged from $2.63 to $3.93, with an average of $3.22. Futures prices from the impact fee, if it does not produce more than 90 Mcf of gas per day in any one month during the calendar year. The Public Utility Commission contends that a well is subject to the fee unless its production Hits: 5
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf recent forecast was released June 15, which projected $32.5 billion of General Fund revenues. Shortly thereafter, the IFO released monthly projections for the current fiscal year. Through July and August, the revenue forecast is holding up well, and it appears the request of members of the General Assembly, provide various economic, revenue or fiscal analyses. IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays Hits: 5
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf Jul.2012 9 2012 GPNP Conference Other Reports and Analysis  Office will be posting regular reports and analysis.  Monthly Economic Update (later this month).  Legislative Requests: Property Tax Proposals (late September).  Interstate comparison of tax structures and tax burdens (later this month Hits: 5
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf will be helpful as you consider the FY 2021-22 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation Fiscal Office 10 March 2021 PA Labor Force Participation Rates Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Month Change January 91.4 February 116.4 March 69.5 April 1.8 May 47.0 June -100.6 July Hits: 5
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf recent jawboning ▪ Fed funds rate up to 2.75-3.00 by December ▪ Fed taper begins in June and every month through December May 23, 2022 1 Three Potential Outcomes Soft Landing (~10%) ▪ No standard definition or time frame ▪ Inflation decelerates Goods Purchases Start to Contract May 23, 2022 16 U.S. Real Purchases of Durable Goods Contracts from Peak Note: Monthly values represent annualized purchases of durable goods (seasonally adjusted). Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Tables 2.8.5 Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf and rapidly increasing interest payments. That observation ties in directly to the TCJA tax cuts that will expire in 18 months. The U.S. Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the expiration will increase federal tax revenues by roughly $340 billion modest growth in mortgage debt provides significant support to consumer purchases. Data for U.S. credit card balances are published monthly by the Federal Reserve Board. These data show continued strong growth in credit card debt, at 7.6% YOY for Hits: 4
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf The authors conclude that the movement to a $13.00 minimum wage yielded lower incomes of $74 per month for the average low-wage worker (reflects lower employment and reduced hours). It should be noted that some researchers strongly disagree with care subsidy family co-pay. All prototype households are assumed to have $250 in excess of shelter expenses/month. 7 Based on FY 2019-20 published data in 49 Pa.B. 3160; June 15, 2019. 8 Based on FY 2019-20 Hits: 4
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf The average annual price is determined using the arithmetic mean of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) one-month futures contracts. The proposed tax would be effective July 1, 2018 with the first payment due June 15, 2019. The initial year and those prices can be volatile. 10 Other methods that extractors use to sell their gas include the month-ahead market and long-term contracts (hedging) that reduce the impact of short-term fluctuations in price. Sales on the spot market Hits: 4
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf and rapidly increasing interest payments. That observation ties in directly to the TCJA tax cuts that will expire in 18 months. The U.S. Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the expiration will increase federal tax revenues by roughly $340 billion modest growth in mortgage debt provides significant support to consumer purchases. Data for U.S. credit card balances are published monthly by the Federal Reserve Board. These data show continued strong growth in credit card debt, at 7.6% YOY for Hits: 4
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf with Disabilities) or (2) no longer qualify for any DHS program (disenrolled). DHS projects that it will need roughly 12 months to review and redetermine all applicable enrollees. FY 23-24 FY 24-25 Fully Enhanced FMAP $2,491 $2,566 latest data), 3.70 million adults and children are enrolled in MA. Compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, the average monthly enrollment (largely children/families and newly eligible) increased by 777,000. The analysis assumes that 311,000 (40%) of these Hits: 4
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf loans of nearly $65 billion, with an average balance of $35,500 (federal loans only). For most borrowers, the average monthly repayment could range from $250 to $400 per month ($3,000 to $4,800 per annum). Not surprisingly, the data show that the proportion of residents with student loans Hits: 4
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf 1.0% job gains | +3.3% average wage. Non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: ~+5% last six months.  Motor vehicle purchases continue to lag. PA inflation remains subdued.  For 2018 Q1 CPI-U for U.S Over-Year Growth Rates Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Wages (withholding) Non-motor sales Hits: 4
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf registration program (a part of the International Registration Plan, a federal program), the department collects and distributes funds on a monthly basis for other jurisdictions. Participating jurisdictions do the same for Pennsylvania. 2 FY 2020-21 includes $49.3 million in are taken by individuals who purchased a multi-ride ticket option. These options are available in 10-trip or unlimited monthly options at a discounted per trip rate and are used by daily commuters and other high-frequency users. ▪ On-time Hits: 4
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf S. Treasury note will increase from 2.3 percent (2017) to 3.7 percent (2019) while the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill increases from 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the 4 52.5 June 2018 47.3 50.0 62.9 62.5 Note: Dates correspond to the month and year the economic forecasts were made. Table 1.2 Economic Forecast Comparison Annual Growth Rate or Change Economic Outlook | Page 3 Hits: 4
MRU_2024_05.pdf non-motor vehicle collections (+$254 million, +2.2%). FYTD motor vehicle SUT collections are $57 million (-4.4%) below estimate. ▪ Monthly personal income tax (PIT) collections of $1.30 billion were below estimate by $19 million (-1.4%) due to lower 7.75 billion, $583 million (+8.1%) more than anticipated. Highlights include: ▪ Inheritance tax collections of $147 million for the month were $16 million (+12.3%) above estimate. ▪ May Treasury collections of $63 million exceeded estimate by $20 million (+48.5% Hits: 4
MRU_2023_08.pdf tax (CNIT) and inheritance tax offseting shortfalls in sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). (The IFO monthly estimate was $35.8 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) August revenues increased $34.5 million (1 5 million increased by $19.5 million (46.4%). FYTD CNIT collections are $21.6 million (7.4%) above estimate. ▪ Monthly SUT collections were $1.15 billion, $16.7 million (-1.4%) below estimate, due largely to motor vehicle collections of Hits: 4
MRU-2020-06.pdf June revenue collections of $2.67 billion fell short of monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $545.2 million (-16.9 percent). The shortfall date extensions and is expected next fiscal year. June sales and use tax (SUT) collections exceeded revenues for the same month of the prior year by 0.5 percent, but were below estimate by $55.1 million (-5.4 percent), with Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf Monthly Data Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.1% 7.0% 6.9% 5% 3.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 8.3% 11.1% 12.2% 16.4% Monthly Data Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.1% 5.8% 5.9% Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf Monthly Data May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sept-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 8% 2.2% 10.9% FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 8.3% 11.1% 12.2% 16.4% Monthly Data May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sept-21 Unemployment Rate 1 5.8% 5.9% 5.4% Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf Monthly Data Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.3% 7.4% 7.3% 0% -0.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 4.7% 8.4% 11.0% 11.9% Monthly Data Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.3% 6.2% 6.0% Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf Monthly Data Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.4% 7.3% 7.1% 0% 1.5% 3.3% FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 4.7% 8.4% 11.0% 11.9% Monthly Data Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.2% 6.0% 6.1% Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7.4% 6.6% 2% -6.2% -0.7% FHFA House Price Index 11 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.8% 6.9% 6.7% Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf Monthly Data Sept-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Unemployment Rate 1 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 6% 9.8% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 11.2% 12.4% 16.6% 14.7% n.a. Monthly Data Sept-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Unemployment Rate 1 4.7% 4.6% 4.2% Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7.4% 6.8% 2% -0.7% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% n.a. Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.8% 6.9% 6.7% Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf level since inception. The IFO will release an updated projection of CY 2020 collections (remitted April 2021) in late January. Monthly Economic Update December 2020 Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 10.4% 8.3% 7.3% Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf Monthly Data Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.1% 7.1% 7.3% 2% -1.0% -0.3% FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 5.2% 4.8% 8.3% 10.9% Monthly Data Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.7% 6.7% 6.3% Hits: 4
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf S. Treasury note will increase from 2.3 percent (2017) to 3.7 percent (2019) while the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill increases from 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the 4 52.5 May 2018 47.3 50.0 62.9 62.5 Note: Dates correspond to the month and year the economic forecasts were made. Table 1.2 Economic Forecast Comparison Annual Growth Rate or Change Economic Outlook | Page 3 Hits: 4
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf ruling from 2017 that a gas well’s production only needs to fall below 90 Mcf per day in one month of the year to be exempt from the fee. As a result, all wells that previously disputed payment of the impact fee schedule will decrease by $5,000 per well (horizontal) compared to CY 2018 levels. For the first six months of 2019, the price has ranged from $2.64 to $3.63, averaging $2.90. Last year, the average price Hits: 4
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf will be helpful as you consider the FY 2023-24 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation federal student loan repayment moratorium in place since April 2020, with an estimated value of $465 to $750 million per month. Independent Fiscal Office 7 March 2023 Demographic Outlook Demographics – Short- and Long-Term Outlook Age Cohort 2019 2022 2025 '19 Hits: 4
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf will be helpful as you consider the FY 2022-23 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation 1.47 $2.10 $2.59 $2.10 $1.38 $3.04 4 Annual average price of natural gas near-month settlements on the New York Mercantile Exchange, upon which the impact fee schedule is based. 5 Weighted average spot price Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf that home sales have been declining since spring of 2021, and recently fell 20.6% in September (compared to same month in prior year), as homeowners who locked into historically low-rate mortgages over the past few years are reluctant to drug program in the event those drugs are not covered under the Medicare Part D plan. The Commonwealth remits payments monthly for this coverage, and the change in the federal matching rate (FMAP) impacts these payments. When the enhanced FMAP fully Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf million in FY 2019-20. The estimate grows to $537 million in FY 2024-25. 4 See Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/down- load.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY19-20- FY 2019-20, the transfer was $40 million and is projected to remain at that level. In recent months, a limited supply of housing has restrained the number of home sales in Pennsylvania, but has placed upward pressure on prices. Home Hits: 4
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf President signed the “Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011.” That Act extends the payroll tax cut for two months through February 2012. The House and Senate have convened a bi-partisan committee to examine methods to extend the payroll payroll tax cut would reduce contributions (and increase disposable income) by approximately $5.0 billion for Commonwealth residents. A ten-month extension would reduce contributions by $4.1 billion. (See table.) An extension of the payroll tax cut would also impact Hits: 3
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf contract to the applicant, which specifies the maximum amount the applicant is eligible to receive. The contract requires submission of monthly progress reports until video game production is complete. 7 It also requires confirmation that (1) the logo and official acknowledgment Pennsylvania logo is included on all packaging materials 5 A video game production year is defined as a consecutive 12-month period beginning on the start date of production. 6 Overall production includes the combined total for all production years. 7 Hits: 3
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf against their Pennsylvania liability in the year of issuance. Any unused credit may be sold or transferred after a 12-month waiting period. 11 Includes a verified current Agricultural Erosion and Sediment Control Plan/Conservation Plan and/or a current Nutri- increase cash flow. Historical data indicate that roughly 55 percent of REAP Tax Credits are sold after a required 12-month waiting period for an average of 85 cents per dollar of credit issued. The remaining 15 cents is retained by Hits: 3
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf employment, the unemployment rates for both men and women would be roughly 9.0%. April 6, 2021 Page 2 Single month state-level data based on gender are not published by BLS, but the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry recently that provides some insight. For January 2021, that brief found that the unemployment rate for women was 9.5% (12-month rolling average), while the unemployment rate for men was 9.2%. The longer-term employment impact of the COVID-19 Hits: 3
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf of Economic Analysis. Other Economic Factors That Bolster Spending PA applications for refinancings grew +200% March to May  Reduce monthly payments | take out equity  Latest monthly data show clear deceleration | September ~+80% CARES Act allows early withdrawals from 401k and IRA  Up to $100,000 Hits: 3
RB_2024_09_Gaming.pdf examine trends for Pennsylvania gaming revenues from fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24 and the first two months of FY 2024-25. Act 71 of 2004 authorized the operation of slot machines at licensed casinos and the statute and economic development projects, the race horse industry and agricultural programs. For FY 2024-25, data from the first two months of the fiscal year reveal a continuation of recent revenue trends. On a year-over-year basis, gross revenues from Hits: 3
RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdf government sectors generated all year- over-year Pennsylvania payroll job gains for 2024. (The preliminary data are based on a monthly survey of establishments and exclude the self-employed. If an individual holds two jobs, they are counted twice.) This outcome impact of an aging population and on-going demand for dining out and social assistance services. For the first two months of the calendar year, payroll jobs continued to expand at a solid rate (62,500, +1.0%). However, two sectors Hits: 3
RB_2024_03_Jobs_Revised.pdf include all employers that are part of the state unemployment insurance system and reflect jobs and wage data reported in monthly and quarterly administrative filings. These data are used to “benchmark” more timely jobs data published monthly by the BLS in their Current Employment Survey (CES) data series, which are based on surveys and imputed jobs created Hits: 3
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf population of firms that are part of the state unemployment insurance system and reflect jobs and wage data reported in monthly and quarterly administrative filings. These administrative data are used to “benchmark” more timely jobs data published monthly by the BLS in their Current Employment Survey (CES) data series, which are based on surveys and imputed jobs created Hits: 3
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf have contracted rapidly at an average rate of 8.3% per annum through FY 2022-23. For the first five months of FY 2023-24, state revenues are down 9.4% from the prior year and will be down 24.5% The state collects the $2.00 per pack tax on behalf of Philadelphia, and then transmits those revenues on a monthly basis. Compared to state and federal revenues, Philadelphia cigarette tax collections have declined at a much faster rate since FY Hits: 3
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdf to 54 (-0.5 ppts). Due to insufficient data, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish similar monthly metrics by age group for states, and average annual data are available only several months after the year ends. An alternative data source is the Quarterly Workforce Indictors (QWI) published by the U.S. Census Hits: 3
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf This research brief updates an original release in July 2022 (updated August 2022) to include data for more recent months and new demographics data from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook (published October 2022). Tables 1 to 3 and the accompanying labor demand intensity is the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed. 2 Job openings data are published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is known as JOLTS (Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Hits: 3
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf administration asserts it will be the final extension. • The income-driven repayment (IDR) plan would be revised to (1) cap monthly payments at 5% of discretionary income for undergraduate borrowers, (2) cover the borrower’s unpaid monthly interest so that debt balances do not grow even if monthly payments are zero, (3) raise the amount excluded from Hits: 3
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf imposed on a gallon of gasoline multiplied by the average wholesale price (AWP) of motor vehicle fuel for the 12-month period ending September 30. 5 The newly computed rate is effective the following January 1. The computed AWP varied significantly only if the computed AWP exceeds the $2.99 minimum. The most recent AWP calculated by DOR (for the 12-month period ending September 30, 2021) was $1.92. 7 5 Through 2013, the AWP was statutorily limited by a $0 Hits: 3
RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdf while preserving capital (e.g., money market funds). (See the Pennsylvania Treasury website for more information.) Treasury earnings are posted monthly as General Fund revenue and those amounts have increased dramatically over the past 15 months. This research brief examines the cause of the historically high collections and explains why the windfall is not expected to Hits: 3
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf for municipalities and counties. A higher rate is used for school districts because property tax bills were received roughly four months later and COVID-19 would have a greater impact on ability to pay those bills. They are also larger than across the three payment periods because some local units have extended the discount and base periods by one or two months, and others may follow. Finally, the analysis assumes millage rates are held constant and there is no net effect from Hits: 3
RB-2015-04.pdf the federal minimum wage is the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey. The CPS is a monthly survey of households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau on behalf of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics It provides data on the labor force, employment levels, unemployment rates and various other demographic and labor force characteristics. The monthly survey includes 60,000 U.S. households and is designed so that state‐speci Ðic observations can be weighted to Hits: 3
QRR_2015Q2.pdf the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review April to June 2015 Page 2 estimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf income tax payments up +13.0%. Spending - non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. Recent Economic Acceleration June.05.2018 7 PA Consumer Income vs 5.0% 6.0% Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates Hits: 3
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf Do individuals rejoin the labor force, or get by with less? November 18, 2020 6 Revenues Are Up First 4 Months of Fiscal Year November 18, 2020 7 Mitigation Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul to Oct Notes General Fund Protection Program. LWA is Lost Wage Assistance. Growth rates control for revenue shifts. Collections partially based on sales from prior month. Philadelphia values for Jan and Feb represent three-month average growth Dec to Feb. LWA ends Philadelphia Looking Forward Anticipated Hits: 3
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf system-wide increase in cash (10.0 percent) and E-ZPass (2.0 percent) tolls. Data for the first four months of the calendar year reveal that passenger ticket transactions declined by 0.9 percent over the same period from the 0 percent toll increase. Independent Fiscal Office Page 13 The Alternative 3 scenario assumes that trends for the first four months of CY 2013 will be representative of the trend for all of CY 2013. It then reruns the statistical analysis Hits: 3
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf 4 10.3 4.9 2.0 Related Factoids About 30%-60% of EIPs spent. Most of that within 3 months. Most unemployment compensation is spent. Per capita credit card debt down 14% in 2021 Q1. Does not account for any be spent or saved PA Payroll Jobs Creation Stagnates June 17, 2021 5 -1,200 -900 -600 -300 0 300 month-to- month change year-over- year change ~50k avg gain -1.1 million stagnation despite ~$47 billion federal transfers normal Hits: 3
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf Do individuals rejoin the labor force, or get by with less? December 9, 2020 6 Revenues Are Up First 5 Months of Fiscal Year December 9, 2020 7 Mitigation Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul to Nov Notes General Fund Protection Program. LWA is Lost Wage Assistance. Growth rates control for revenue shifts. Collections partially based on sales from prior month. Philadelphia values for Jan and Feb represent three-month average growth Dec to Feb. LWA ends Looking Forward Sustained drop Hits: 3
NGPR-2018Q2.pdf the top-ten producing states, Louisiana and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for the first five months of 2018 while Alaska was the only state in the top ten to register a decline. Figure 6 displays the 772.9 1,483.3 -9.4% -7.7% -7.6% Note: CY 2018 includes production for the first five months of the year and the corresponding growth rate is based on the same time period in CY 2017. Source: U Hits: 3
NGPR-2018Q1.pdf the top-ten producing states, Louisiana and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for the first two months of 2018. Alaska was the only state in the top-ten to register a decline in this time period. Figure 3,772.9 573.7 -9.4% -7.7% -8.7% Note: CY 2018 includes production for the first two months of the year and the corresponding growth rate is based on the same time period in CY 2017. Source: U Hits: 3
NGPR-2017Q1.pdf wells only. Data through 2014 were reported on a half-year basis. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Figure 1 displays the number of new horizontal wells spud in each quarter since 2011. After declining to its types. Among the top-ten producing states, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first two months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Five states (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Colorado and Wyoming) registered declines Hits: 3
NGPR-2016Q4.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data basis, and the half-year values are shown as Q2 and Q4. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Table 7: Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full-Year Count 2016 6,605 6 Hits: 3
NGPR-2016Q3.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data basis, and the half-year values are shown as Q2 and Q4. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Table 7: Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full-Year Count 2016 6,605 6 Hits: 3
NGPR-2016Q2.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those and the half-year val- ues are shown as Q2 and Q4. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Table 7: Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full-Year Count 2016 6,605 6 Hits: 3
NGPR-2016Q1.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those basis, and the half-year values are shown as Q2 and Q4. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Table 7: Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full-Year Count 2016 6,584 n Hits: 3
NGPR-2015-2H.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the last six months of 2015 and the full calendar year. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional Hits: 3
Newsstand_January_2020.pdf States Including Pennsylvania On December 31, 2019 the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its State Leading Indexes, a six-month forecast of its State Coincident Indexes for November 2019. Forty-one state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, but nine (including Pennsylvania) are projected to decline. This outcome is likely related to the uptick in the Pennsylvania unemployment Hits: 3
Newsstand_2018_October.pdf ment (includes retirees, spouses, children and disabled), the COLA translates into a $1.3 billion increase in income, an average monthly gain of roughly $40 per recipient. COLAs for the three previous years were as follows: 2016 (0.0%), 2017 (0 2018 - National News U.S. Treasury Posts $779 Billion Deficit for FFY 2018 On October 15, the U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement showed an official federal deficit for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2018 of $779 billion. The deficit is $113 Hits: 3
Newsstand_2018_August.pdf collections increased by 7.5% from the same time period in the prior year. That pace reflects the strongest 3-month gain since April 2012. A strong labor market and higher discretionary income from federal tax cuts are likely two relevant other global partners. The latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists places the chance of recession in the next 12 months at 18.3%. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018- Hits: 3
MRU_2024_06.pdf motor vehicle collections (+$267 million, +2.1%). Fiscal year motor vehicle SUT collections were $76 million (-5.3%) below estimate. ▪ Monthly personal income tax (PIT) collections of $1.53 billion were above estimate by $9 million (+0.6%) due to higher depleted. ▪ Inheritance tax collections were boosted by continued stock market gains and rapid home price appreciation throughout the fiscal year. Monthly Revenue Update June 2024 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through June June Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 10.4% 8.3% 7.3% 4% -5.7% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 10 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 8.4% 7.9% 6.9% Hits: 3
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf and 2012. $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 28.Jan.2015 8 Monthly Average Gas Price Jan 2009 demand collapses Jan 2015 excess supply weak global demand EIA Mid‐Atlantic Price June 2014  Published IFO and DOR estimates for FY 2014‐15 differed by $224 million ($57 million for the first seven months of the fiscal year and $167 million for the final five months). 28.Jan.2015 16 Estimate Comparison Fiscal Year Hits: 3
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf the fee’s inception, causing a fee schedule reduction and a $52.6 million decrease in revenues. The CY 2021 monthly average price through June is $2.76, a 50.6% increase from the same period in 2019. Bentek Energy projects on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. An alternative to the annual average ETR is the lifetime ETR, which is Hits: 3
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf CY 2019, causing a fee schedule reduction and a $47.4 million decrease in impact fee revenues. The CY 2020 monthly average price through June is $1.83, the lowest January-June average since the impact fee’s inception. Bentek Energy on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. An alternative to the annual average ETR is the lifetime ETR, which is Hits: 3
IFO ppt.pdf 8.5% in December. • Consumer Confidence up sharply at end of year. – UM Index of Consumer Sentiment up 4th straight month. – Conference Board Consumer Confidence up 5th straight month. Gain from October to December largest since March 1991 (Gulf War jump). • US Automakers have best year since 2008. Strong Hits: 3
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf States, but decreased among those ages 12 to 17. During this period, adults who reported using marijuana in the past month increased from 19.0% to 23.0% for ages 18 to 25 and from 4.8% to 10.2% for addicted to marijuana and that ratio increases to 1 in 6 for users who start before age 18. 1 Past month is also referred to as current use. 2 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Marijuana and Public Health.” (2018). March Hits: 3
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. See 58 Pa.C.S. § 2302(b) for the statutory adjustments and 46 Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price Hits: 3
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. See 58 Pa.C.S. § 2302(b) for the statutory adjustments and 46 Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price Hits: 3
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf have more disposable income.  Options: spend, save or pay down debt.  Occurs with delay. IHS Markit assumes 6 months. Sales tax: gain from higher disposable income and spending.  FY 17-18: +$10-$20 million | FY 18-19: +$60- adjusted for extra deposit days. Non-motor sales tax adjusted for tax law changes and miscellaneous transfers. Also uses one month lag. Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 17 IFO Official FY 2017-18 Estimate June 2017 Estimate Revenue Revised Official Hits: 3
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf in which the credit was authorized (June 30). Nonprofits then have until September 30 to expend contributions. (The additional three months allows contributions remit- ted close to the fiscal year end to be expended before the activity period closes.) 13 Applicants averaged roughly 62 percent of anticipated contributions. 13 Due to the nature of the EZP component, there is no three-month extension and the investment must be expended by June 30. 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Hits: 2
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf temporary help employee). 3 A taxpayer must file for the credit by the 15 th of the fourth month following the end of the firm’s taxable year. For firms subject to tax in more than one state, the amount of and indirect costs related to living kidney donation and found that most financial losses were greater than one month of the donor’s income. 19 In addition, one-third of the living kidney donors surveyed had lost an average of 252 Hits: 2
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf legislation that support loan forgiveness programs targeted at keeping recent graduates in the state. The New York program offers 24 months of federal student loan debt relief to recent New York State college graduates. Program applicants must be a legal resident and have been residing in New York for the previous 12 consecutive months. They must have graduated from a New York State high school, earned an undergraduate degree from a New York college Hits: 2
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf Beginning with calendar year 2017 and thereafter, the minimum AWP is $2.99 per gallon. For the 12-month period ending Sep- tember 30, 2018, the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue determined the actual AWP to be $2.04 cents per gallon port, healthcare and social service referrals and healthy foods to an average of over 218,000 participants per month in FY 2017-18. 7 The federal match rate for MA expansion recipients declines according to the following schedule: 95 percent to Hits: 2
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf 260.7 Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2013. Starts and sales are seasonally adjusted annual rates. General Fund Revenues ERCA Monthly: Transfer to ERCA of collections or savings from certain DOR enforcement activities. June: Annual transfer to the General Fund. Enhanced to historical ratios would increase revenues. • According to data from the EIA, PA electric sector revenues for the first 9 months of 2012 are down 6% from 2011 levels. • The telecommunications sector has been declining. Data charges are growing, but not Hits: 2
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf negative impact that high rates of inflation are having on the real earnings of U.S. workers. 1 The latest monthly earnings release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirms that finding. The release found that real average from the prior year. As shown by the table, real average hourly earnings declined in each of the latest four months due to unusually high inflation. For August, average hourly earnings increased by 4.4%, while the CPI-U grew by Hits: 2
QRR_2017Q2.pdf also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s Hits: 2
QRR_2017Q1.pdf also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec‐ tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s Hits: 2
QRR_2016Q4.pdf context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s Hits: 2
QRR_2016Q3.pdf context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Report. GENERAL FUND revenues for the third quarter of 2016 were $206.7 million below estimate. Corporate net income Hits: 2
QRR_2016Q1.pdf The first quarter of calendar year 2016 is the third quarter of FY 2015-16. ________________________________________ 2 See the Monthly Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year. Quarterly Revenue Review January to March 2016 Page 2 Table 2 contains detail on actual and projected growth rates Hits: 2
QRR_2015Q4.pdf The fourth quarter of calendar year 2015 is the second quarter of FY 2015-16. ________________________________________ 2 See the Monthly Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year. Quarterly Revenue Review October to December 2015 Page 2 Table 2 contains detail on actual and projected growth rates Hits: 2
QRR_2015Q3.pdf The third quarter of calendar year 2015 is the first quarter of FY 2015-16. ________________________________________ 2 See the Monthly Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year. Quarterly Revenue Review July to September 2015 Page 2 For the first quarter of FY 2015-16, General Fund Hits: 2
QRR_2015Q1.pdf the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review January to March 2015 Page 2 estimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table Hits: 2
QRR_2014Q4.pdf the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review October to December 2014 Page 2 other revenues were $97 million above estimate. Additional detail on specific revenue Hits: 2
QRR_2014Q2.pdf the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review April to June 2014 Page 2 million and $283 million, respectively. All other revenues were below estimate by Hits: 2
QRR_2013Q4.pdf the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review October to December 2013 Page 2 million and $26 million, respectively. All other revenues were below estimate by Hits: 2
QRR_2013Q3.pdf the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review July-September 2013 Page 2 Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections fell below projections by Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf income tax payments up +11.7%. Spending - non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. Strong Labor Market = Income Gains June.12.2018 3 PA Consumer 4.0% 5.0% Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf income tax payments up +13.0%. Spending - non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. June.04.2018 7 Recent Economic Acceleration June.04.2018 8 5.0% 6.0% Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates Hits: 2
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf and taxes ▪ III. State budget: revenue proposals and key issues April 19, 2023 1 “Why the Recession is Always Six Months Away” April 19, 2023 2 March 6, 2023 10:45 am ET “The next economic downturn has become the most recession in recent U.S. history. It also keeps getting postponed.” WSJ Economist Survey: Odds of Recession in Next 12 Months Nov 2007 33% Dec 2007 38% (Dec 07 to Jun 09) Jul 2022 49% Oct 2022 63% Jan 2023 61% Hits: 2
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf thresholds. The policy threshold requires that fleet vehicles must be driven 6,000 business miles within a six-month period or used 80 percent of available work days within a six-month period (e.g., 60.3 percent of fleet vehicles met the policy threshold in FY 2017-18).  Operating cost per mile Hits: 2
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf elevated ▪ Significant and sudden jump in Employment Cost Index (ECI) March 16, 2023 1 “Why the Recession is Always Six Months Away” March 16, 2023 2 March 6, 2023 10:45 am ET “The next economic downturn has become the most recession in recent U.S. history. It also keeps getting postponed.” WSJ Economist Survey: Odds of Recession in Next 12 Months Nov 2007 34% Dec 2007 38% (Dec 07 to Jun 09) Jun 2022 44% Jul 2022 49% Oct 2022 63% Hits: 2
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2023 “Why the Recession is Always Six Months Away” March 13, 2023 1 March 6, 2023 10:45 am ET “The next economic downturn has become the most recession in recent U.S. history. It also keeps getting postponed.” WSJ Economist Survey: Odds of Recession in Next 12 Months Nov 2007 34% Dec 2007 38% (Dec 07 to Jun 09) Apr 2022 28% Jun 2022 44% Jul 2022 49% Hits: 2
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf Beginning with calendar year 2017 and thereafter, the minimum AWP is $2.99 per gallon. For the 12-month period ending Sep- tember 30, 2018, the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue determined the actual AWP to be $2.04 cents per gallon port, healthcare and social service referrals and healthy foods to an average of over 218,000 participants per month in FY 2017-18. 2017-18 Amount Amount Growth Amount Growth Total Federal Funds $26,875 $28,102 4.6% $27,466 Hits: 2
novak ppt.pdf to find a method that works indefinitely. • Buy local. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month) Previous New Previous New Previous New Quarterly data: 2011:Q4 2.6 2.6 9.0 9.0 148.7 3.5 7.6 7.8 N.A. N.A. Business Outlook Survey Change in activity over the next 6 months -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing F EDERAL R ESERVE B Hits: 2
NGPR_2022_Q4.pdf production did not increase year-over- year. It also represents the strongest year-over-year decline in quarterly production since monthly production data have been published (2015). Full year horizontal production totaled 7,439 bcf, a 1.6% decline from the led to increased natural gas inventory throughout the country. There is typically a draw-down of inventories during the winter months to fulfill heating demand. Figure 4 displays trends in the same prices over the last 21 quarters including preliminary data Hits: 2
NGPR_2022_Q2.pdf states in CY 2021, Pennsylvania is the only major producing state to record negative annual growth in the first five months of CY 2022. Rank County 2021 2022 Share Growth 2021 2022 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 791 775 21.0% -2 5 States includes Oklahoma, New Mexico, Ohio, Colorado and Wyoming. The growth rate for CY 2022 compares the first five months of the year. Production Volume Annual Growth Rate Table 4: State Production Comparison INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2022 Price Hits: 2
NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf prior year, while the Pennsylvania average price increased by 64.4%. This growth was largely driven by prices in the month of February, due to nationwide freezing temperatures, most notably in Texas. The average Henry Hub price in February was $5 prices from late 2018 to mid-2020. Since then, both prices increased due to strong energy demand during the winter months, and the Texas freeze in February. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh. Questions regarding Hits: 2
NGPR-2018Q4.pdf the top-ten producing states, Louisiana and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for the first eleven months of 2018 while Alaska and Wyoming were the only states in the top ten to register a decline. Figure 6 The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report Hits: 2
NGPR-2018Q3.pdf the top-ten producing states, Louisiana and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for the first eight months of 2018 while Alaska and Wyoming were the only states in the top ten to register a decline. Figure 6 The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report Hits: 2
NGPR-2017Q3.pdf Among the top-ten producing states, Louisiana, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first eight months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Four states (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Colorado) registered declines. Figure The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report Hits: 2
NGPR-2017Q2.pdf types. Among the top-ten producing states, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first five months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Four states (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Colorado) registered declines. Figure The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report Hits: 2
NGPR-2015-1H.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the first six months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus Hits: 2
NGPR-2015-09.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the first six months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_June.pdf adjusted number of job openings was 6.7 million in April, while 6.3 million Americans were unemployed that same month. The national unemployment rate for May was 3.8%, its lowest level since April 2000. Due to tight labor market by corporations increased by 35.8% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-06-19 15:09:50 ModDate: 2018-06- Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf projects the real growth rate of the U.S. economy based on various government data releases during the past three months. A preliminary growth rate will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27. Histori- cally The preliminary tax data exclude filers who requested an extension to file (typically upper-income taxpayers). IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: TDorr CreationDate: 2018-07-24 19:05:23 Creator: PScript5.dll Version Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_December.pdf the current market as leading indicators for building permits and sales of new and existing homes have declined in recent months. U.S. Corporate Profits Record Strong Growth in 2018 Q3 On November 28, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and insurers). It should be emphasized that all figures are preliminary and subject to significant revision. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2018-12-11 20:10:49 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2018- Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this winter were given to Americans who use 45 percent of their monthly income for debt service. The number of mortgages originated with a debt-to-income ratio of 45 percent or greater prices are increasing faster than wages and mortgage interest rates are on the rise. (Full Article) IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: TDorr CreationDate: 2018-04-20 17:19:20 Creator: PScript5.dll Version Hits: 2
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf preview and train on all or parts of the three courses. Some athletes also likely visited the area in the months leading up to the event to train on the course. The Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) awarded a employment. It is noted that the full estimated economic impact will not occur immediately but would likely occur over several months up to a few years. Data used for this report were submitted by DCED and HVAB. The IFO thanks them Hits: 2
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf Critical Forecast Assumptions 1 No recession in 2023 or 2024 ▪ April WSJ Survey of Economists: 61% expect recession next 12 months ▪ Debt ceiling impasse resolved before default ▪ Federal Reserve largely done with rate hikes ▪ No collapse in asset markets: stocks and profits Sales - Non-Motor 11,593 5.2 Sales - Motor Vehicle 1,264 -24.9 4.1 PTTF transfer (~$42m/month) PIT - Withholding 11,666 6.5 7.0 election integrity transfer PIT - Other 4,518 -18.4 large capital gains Hits: 2
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf Critical Forecast Assumptions 1 No recession in 2023 or 2024 ▪ April WSJ Survey of Economists: 61% expect recession next 12 months ▪ Debt ceiling impasse resolved before default ▪ Federal Reserve largely done with rate hikes ▪ No collapse in asset markets: stocks and profits Sales - Non-Motor 11,593 5.2 Sales - Motor Vehicle 1,264 -24.9 4.1 PTTF transfer (~$42m/month) PIT - Withholding 11,666 6.5 7.0 election integrity transfer PIT - Other 4,518 -18.4 large capital gains Hits: 2
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdf which caused a downshift in the fee schedule and a $85.9 million loss in revenues. The CY 2024 average monthly price through June is $2.07, a 25% decrease from the same period in CY 2023. Contract prices as of Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price Hits: 2
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf impact fee’s inception, causing a fee schedule increase and a $32.9 million gain in revenues. The CY 2023 monthly average price through June is $2.76, a 55% decrease from the same period in CY 2022. Contract prices as Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price Hits: 2
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf average since CY 2014, causing a fee schedule increase and a $99.8 million gain in revenues. The CY 2022 monthly average price through June is $6.06, a 119% increase from the same period in 2021. Bentek Energy projects that Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price Hits: 2
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. See 58 Pa.C.S. § 2302(b) for the statutory adjustments and 46 Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price Hits: 2
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf net income tax revenues, and nearly all of that impact should manifest itself in the final payments over the coming months. Pennsylvania Economy The state economy seems to be in a good position, with the latest Philadelphia CPI-U reading running cut. Some forecasting firms believe the response will be immediate, while others believe there will be a six to nine-month lag. The second way the TCJA will impact revenues is through the corporate tax rate cut. This impact is much Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf 3 displays LFPRs by available age cohort data from 2018 to 2022. The figures for 2022 are estimates based on monthly data through Septem- ber 2022. Prior to the COVID- 19 pandemic, the overall state LFPR was 63.2%, nearly iden- 2022. Wells Fargo released November 10, 2022. PNC released September 2022. Annual Growth Rate or Change Consumer Price Index Avg Monthly Change in Payroll Jobs (000s) Economic Outlook | Page 13 Payroll Employment In Spring 2020, the Pennsylvania labor market made a Hits: 2
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf 8.8% Gasoline $4.80 S&P 500 -21% YTD WSJ Survey of Economists Do You Expect Recession next 12 months? Three Interest Rates Tell the Story Slide 3 Feb 2024 Economic Summit -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 10 Feb 2024 Economic Summit Data Source 1 Average Hourly Earnings (counts all jobs, new workers) Data Source 2 Average Monthly Earnings (Stable) (must have worked in prior quarter) Note: Both Earnings measures are converted to real amounts using the Philadelphia Hits: 2
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf 1 displays LFPRs by available age cohort data from 2018 to 2022. The figures for 2022 are estimates based on monthly data through August 2022. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the overall state LFPR was 63.2%, nearly iden- tical for two scenarios. Assumptions are as follows:  For 2022, the unemployment rate is 4.3% based on the latest monthly BLS data. The unemployment rate is assumed to be 5.0% from 2023 forward.  Scenario 1 (blue line) assumes Hits: 2
2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf data on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. See 58 Pa.C.S. § 2302(b) for the statutory adjustments and 46 Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price Hits: 2
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. See 58 Pa.C.S. § 2302(b) for the statutory adjustments and 46 Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price Hits: 2
Releases examine trends for Pennsylvania gaming revenues from fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24 and the first two months of FY 2024-25. Full Report County Income Patterns 2019 to 2022 September 09, 2024 | Economics and Other This annual billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $33 million (+1.1%) compared to August 2023. Full Report Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates August 23, 2024 | Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2024-25 Hits: 2
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf 4 units). The average rent for the residential unit ranges from $800 (one-bedroom) to $1,300 (three-bedroom) per month. Commercial space ranged in size from 1,000 to 18,000 square feet with rental rates ranging from $1.50 Hits: 1
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf within the zone is maximized, notification of the firm’s intent to claim the credit could be required within 12 months of moving into the zone. Conclusion Act 48 requires that the IFO make a determination regarding whether the tax credit Hits: 1
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf Standardize due process rights to taxpayers denied tax credits for noncompliance or were subject to recapture within six months of the award date.  Require the brokers to be registered with DOR.  Require taxpayers to file federal Form 6765 with Hits: 1
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Department of Community and Economic Development (De- cember 2018). Overview of the FPTC | Page 7 requires submission of monthly progress reports until the production is complete. It also requires that the end credits for any FPTC production include the Pennsylvania Film Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf CY) 2021. Therefore, both the state (FY 2021-22) and local (FY 2020-21) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state population (CY 2021) to which they are compared. Finally, the state rankings in this analysis do Hits: 1
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf Therefore, both the state (FY 2018-19) and local (FY 2017-18) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2018) measure to which they are compared. In general, the state rankings in this analysis Hits: 1
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf Therefore, both the state (FY 2017-18) and local (FY 2016-17) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2017) measure to which they are compared. In general, the state rankings in this analysis Hits: 1
SR2017-03.pdf CY) 2014. Therefore, both the state (FY 2014-15) and local (FY 2013-14) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2014) measure to which they are compared. It should be noted that the Hits: 1
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf stylized scenario assumes that the General Assembly enacts a law that provides active retirees an amount equal to one additional monthly payment (i.e., a “13 th check”), an 8.33% increase in benefits. The scenario applies to all active retirees Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf a tight labor market result in fewer discouraged workers. As requested, the U6 indicator was added to the IFO’s Monthly Economic Update. Senator Haywood requested an analysis showing the effect of a regressive tax system on Pennsylvania’s workforce. All Hits: 1
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf 3 $0.1 Note: Billions of dollars. PEBT included with SNAP. SNAP emergency allotments end Feb 2023 ~$100 per person monthly, 1.9m residents FY 21-22 $3.84 billion in federal funds transferred to General Fund ERC ~$57,000 per Hits: 1
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf Legalize and Tax Adult Recreational Use Cannabis Note: Millions of dollars. Assumes sales begin January 1, 2025 and a one-month delay in tax collections. Tax and Revenue Proposals | Page 4 Legalization of recreational use marijuana impacts medical marijuana markets differently Hits: 1
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf and Revenue Proposals | Page 7 Elimination of the Enhanced Revenue Collections Account (ERCA) Under current law, General Fund revenue transferred monthly to ERCA provides supplemental funds for the Department of Revenue’s (DOR) collection activities. The proposal eliminates ERCA transfers and Hits: 1
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf Under current law, employers may pay less than the federal minimum if a tipped worker earns at least $30 per month in tips or commissions and total compensation yields an hourly wage rate of $7.25 or more. For Pennsylvania, such Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf first week in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses the performance Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf revised to reflect recent trends in personal income tax withholding. Collections for this revenue source underperformed through the first five months of the calendar year, reducing the expected growth rate for the remainder of 2016 and 2017. Highlights of the FY16- Hits: 1
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf shown. The first adjustment is Revenues Through March, which reflects the impact of actual revenues received through the first nine months of the fiscal year, and excludes any impacts related to the COVID-19 virus, payment or processing delays. The second Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf This revenue estimate occurs in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf This revenue estimate occurs in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf estimate occurs in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses the performance Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf estimate occurs in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses the performance Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf first week in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses the performance Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf 1 Note: Millions of dollars. Motor License Fund COVID-19 reduces FY 19-20 revenues by ~$105 million  Full-month closure reduces gasoline consumption by ~40%  Diesel largely unaffected Licenses and fees largely unaffected  Expiration dates for March Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf stable at 4% Economic factors  Overseas economies. Interest rates. Stock market volatility.  2019 Q1 profits number end of month  Business investment slowdown (WSJ May 19)? May 20, 2019 19 Summary Increase to IFO Official Estimate of +$866 million Hits: 1
RB_2024_04_Older_Workers.pdf tracks workers over time to determine various characteristics such as worker age, rates of quits and new hires, and average monthly earnings across various sectors. Because the database uses administrative records and not surveys, it provides the best source of information Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf Eligible parents/guardians also make a co-payment to the care provider that can range from $22 to $342 per month. In March 2023, base rates in Pennsylvania were adjusted to reestablish rates at the 60 th percentile of the market Hits: 1
RB_2023_12_Gasoline_Consumption_Remains_Subdued.pdf This research brief updates one published in January 2023 to include an additional 11 months of gasoline consumption and retail price data. More than three years after the height of the pandemic (2020), gasoline consumption Hits: 1
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf 2020 to June 30, 2021 are an estimated 28%. The official rates of return will not be finalized for several months, and new actuarial projections will not be available until 2022, as the systems incorporate changes to actuarial assumptions and methodologies Hits: 1
RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdf the annual pay adjustment for certain government officials is based on YOY CPI-U growth for October only, and that month may not reflect the impact of inflation during the full prior year. The CPI-U might spike in May due Hits: 1
RB-2019-01.pdf 58 Pa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange ($3.086 for CY 2018). 3. See Snyder Brothers, Inc. v. Pennsylvania Public Hits: 1
RB-2016-02.pdf Share Assessment N/A N/A The CFA distributes the local share assessment for Fayette County, Luzerne County, Monroe County, Mont‐ gomery County and Washington County. As noted in the previous section, the portion attributable to economic development was unable to Hits: 1
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf GPI, multiplied by the 3.26 percent increase on the employee's anniversary/longevity date. Assumes an average of six months at the higher rate. 5/ Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the relevant fiscal year, plus the impact of the July 2020 Hits: 1
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf General Fund revenues, expenditures, economics and demographics ▪ Long-term structural surplus or deficit for the state Other Duties and Releases ▪ Monthly releases: revenue collections, economic update ▪ Pensions: determine if actuarial note required prior to further consideration ▪ Property tax: forecasts and analysis Hits: 1
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf recent years, ~ 35-40% shift from 30 to 15-20 yr mortgage. o Shock from housing bust? o May increase monthly payment by $200-$400. o Temporary hit to economy. But, longer-term benefit.  Impact on potential (Gen Y) and Hits: 1
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf 10.Feb.2017 17 Non-Motor SUT Growth Note: Adjusted SUT controls for expanded tax base and transfers. Uses one month lag to coincide with withholding and economic activity. Withholding growth rates are adjusted for extra deposit days during the quarter Hits: 1
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf data on corporate profits suggest weakness. • Wage/salary withholding collections have underperformed. • Sales tax collections have been strong in recent months. • The jobs forecast is important to the revenue estimate. Changes Since January Report 8.Jun.2016 9 2013 2014 2015 Hits: 1
Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf n.a. Wages and Salaries 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% n.a. Avg Monthly Job Gains (000s) 141.7 220.7 218.3 217.0 189.3 233.3 180.3 US CPI-U Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf a. Wages and Salaries (YOY) 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.9% n.a. Avg Monthly Job Gains (000s) 177.3189.7141.7220.7218.3217.0189.7 US CPI-U (YOY) 2.6% 1.9% 2 Hits: 1
PICPA_Presentation.pdf 4.0% 5.0% Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. 3.0% 2.4% 3 Hits: 1
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf FY 2016-17 Long-Term Living total spending includes $113 million intergovernmental transfer. Source: April 2017 Department of Human Services monthly report and Executive Budget, various years. May 24, 2017 22 Long-Term Imbalance Funding Sources for Senior Programs Avg. Ann Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf services (HCBS) over nursing facilities ▪ CHC enrolled 80,400 participants in 2018 and increased to 371,200 participants in 2020 (monthly average) Enrollment in fee-for-service (FFS) programs declined as participants were moved to CHC ▪ FFS nursing facilities, OBRA Waiver Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_11_2023.pdf to save consumers $260 million ▪ In first two years (2021 and 2022), program projected to reduce rates by approximately $20/month for 400,000+ covered individuals ▪ 80% of funds are provided by the federal government PID does not track aggregated rate Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf met or exceeded goals in measurement year (MY) 2019 ▪ ED utilization decreased from 74.0 visits per 1,000 member months (MY 2015) to 66.1 (MY 2019) Counties not required to track and report outcomes related to state funds received Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf pollution ▪ Provide up-front funds for farmers that may lack access to capital ▪ Benefits small farmers that must wait 12 months to sell credit Review policy of awarding credits after BMP is already in place April 26, 2021 7 Entertainment Economic Hits: 1
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf to track the estimated number of vehicles that enter the park. These estimates are reported to the Bureau on a monthly basis. 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 Park Ranger FTE positions 1 185 185 Hits: 1
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf primary funding source for 911 in Pennsylvania is a uniform $1.65 surcharge levied on landline and wireless monthly phone bills, authorized by Act 12 of 2015 and reauthorized under Act 17 of 2019. Prior to Act 12 of 2015, the Hits: 1
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf served for short sentences to state prison more predictable. For inmates with sentences to state prison of 24 months or less, this proposal would institute a presumptive release to parole at the minimum sentence. These inmates would be released to state Hits: 1
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf plans. Used by other states too. Establish the process used to interact with agencies.  Multiple agency meetings over several months.  Iteration necessary to refine metrics and compile allocations. Meet the January 2019 deadline. January 22, 2019 5 Moving Forward Hits: 1
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf the Firefighters’ Memorial appropriation) and 911 Emergency Telecommunication Activity ($1,000 from the GGO appropriation). PEMA Metric Highlights $1.65/month/line 911 fee ranks 7 th in U.S. ($19.80 annual fee)  $316m collected CY 2018 | per capita Hits: 1
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx 2018) ▪ PA lower than all border states except WV | U.S. rate is 11.4 ▪ 80% receive treatment within one month of diagnosis (up from 70%) Opioid overdose rates decline, but remain far above U.S. avg ▪ DOH data: 2017 (38 Hits: 1
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf bump from advance/expanded child tax credit ▪ August: 1.3 million payments | 2.2 million children | $554 million ▪ September first month with only CTC payments, no federal UC Higher inflation unlikely to be transitory ▪ Delayed response in housing and rental markets Hits: 1
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf 9 Note: Millions of dollars. Motor License Fund COVID-19 reduces FY 19-20 revenues by ~$105 million  Full-month closure reduces gasoline consumption by ~40%  Diesel more moderately affected Licenses and fees largely unaffected  Expiration dates for Hits: 1
NGQU_2024_Q2.pdf deceleration from the previous quarter. Low prices and high inventory have likely caused a nationwide slowdown in production in recent months. The adjacent figure displays recent trends in natural gas spot prices for the Henry Hub and the average Pennsylvania hub Hits: 1
NGQU_2024_Q1.pdf registering declines from the prior year. The Henry Hub average price for March was $1.50 per MMBtu, the lowest monthly price since data have been reported (1997). Data for April show that the Pennsylvania average hub price was $1.34 Hits: 1
NGQU_2023_Q2.pdf 3.8% from the prior year. This metric was flat from the first quarter after reaching the lowest level since monthly production data became available (2015). ▪ There were 94 new horizontal wells spud, a decrease of 39 new wells (-29.3% Hits: 1
NGQU_2023_Q1.pdf from the prior year. This metric has steadily declined over the last five quarters and reached the lowest level since monthly production data became available (2015) in the first quarter. ▪ There were 120 new horizontal wells spud, a decrease of 27 Hits: 1
NGPR_2022_Q3.pdf production did not increase year-over- year. It also represents the strongest year-over-year decline in quarterly production since monthly production data have been published (2015). There were 158 new horizontal wells spud in the third quarter of 2022. This Hits: 1
NGPR_2021_Q3.pdf September production, which grew by 11.3% from September 2020. This is the strongest year-over-year growth for a month of production since July 2019. Production through September was 6.7% higher than the same period in 2020, nearly double Hits: 1
NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf Furthermore, total production in September declined by 1.3 percent from September 2019, the first year-over-year decline in monthly production since February 2017. There were 111 new horizontal wells spud in the third quarter of 2020. This figure represents Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q4.pdf The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q3.pdf The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q2.pdf The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report Hits: 1
NGPR-2019Q1.pdf The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report Hits: 1
NGPR-2017Q4.pdf The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report Hits: 1
NGIFE-2018.pdf 58 Pa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange ($3.108 for CY 2017). Includes the impact of the annual adjustment for Hits: 1
NGIFE-2016.pdf 58 Pa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange. 3. The price used for this calculation is a weighted average of spot Hits: 1
NGIFE-2015.pdf Pa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the average annual price is the annual average of the settled prices for near‐ month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The fee schedule is adjusted downward if the price of gas falls between Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_October.pdf income for housing. Older renters and older homeowners still making mortgage payments reported paying between $830 and $1,300 on monthly housing costs. This is considerably more than those 65+ who paid off their mortgage; only paying $458 in hous- ing Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_May.pdf On May 17, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state jobs figures for April. For the first four months of the calendar year, the data show that payroll jobs in the retail trade sector contracted at an annualized rate Hits: 1
Newsstand_2019_March.pdf Those refunds typically provide a boost to consumer spending and sales tax revenues in the spring. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2019-03-18 20:30:14 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2019- Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf days as compared to the prior year. Spending in bars and restaurants also realized a decline compared to the prior month. However, the article reports that online holiday sales increased by 14% over the prior year. U.S. Demographic Trends May Hits: 1
Newsstand_2019_April.pdf was as follows: 5.2% (Q1), 5.8% (Q2), 17.2% (Q3) and 14.9% (Q4). IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2019-04-22 18:33:56 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2019- Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf Some analysts believe income was shifted out of the year in anticipation of potential tax cuts. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: TDorr CreationDate: 2018-05-16 16:46:55 Creator: PScript5.dll Version Hits: 1
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf of $500 million. o $169 billion would be allocated based on the states’ share of unemployed workers over a three-month period, from October-December 2020. Provides $130.2 billion to Local Governments: o $65.1 billion for counties. o $45 Hits: 1
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf is a weighted annual average at major Pennsylvania hubs. NYMEX price is the annual average price of natural gas near-month settlements on the New York Mercantile Exchange, upon which the Impact Fee schedule is based. Impact Fee collections in millions Hits: 1
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf is a weighted annual average at major Pennsylvania hubs. NYMEX price is the annual average price of natural gas near-month settlements on the New York Mercantile Exchange, upon which the Impact Fee schedule is based. Impact Fee collections in millions Hits: 1
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf 25.Jan.2017 14 Non-Motor SUT Growth Note: Adjusted SUT controls for expanded tax base and transfers. Uses one month lag to coincide with withholding and economic activity. Withholding growth rates are adjusted for extra deposit days during the quarter Hits: 1
mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf to be released in early May. “After adjusting for statutory changes, revenues have displayed no growth for the first seven months of the current fiscal year.” Knittel said. “For next year, revenues are projected to follow a low-growth pattern. Revenue Hits: 1
May_1_Revenue_Update.pdf increased 17.5% from April 2023 due to a greater number of deposit days this year. • April is the primary month for escheats collections, which came in $68 million higher than anticipated, a real gain that increases the FY 2023-24 Hits: 1
Letter_to_JSGC.pdf This decision was made two days prior to publication, even though the IFO had submitted a draft copy nearly a month earlier, and answered a dozen questions from the JSGC director two weeks prior to publication.  Upon publication, the IFO Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf Over-Year Growth Rates Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. 0.7% 16 02.May Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf demand and generation compared to what was assumed by the latest model. • A May 2021 presentation by DEP computed higher monthly residential electricity bills of $1.17 (no electric heat) to $1.65 (electric heat) for 2022. Assuming the same methodology Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf House Appropriations Committee. The tables are as follows:  The first table shows job losses in the Commonwealth for three months: April, August and December 2020. The latest data for December show a year-over-year contraction of 472,000 jobs Hits: 1
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf instead of 2013 to avoid federal tax increases. Depending on the performance of the Pennsylvania economy in the first six months of 2014, the revisions could prove to be conservative. However, marked improvement in jobs and wages, increased business investment and Hits: 1
IFO_Presentation_HB1379_Sept_2023.pdf Actuarial Liability (UAL): $1.08 billion (67% funded) September 7, 2023 2 General Provisions of HB 1379 For Individuals ▪ Additional Monthly Amounts • Retired 5-10 Years: $75/mo. • Retired 10-20 Years: $150/mo. • Retired 20+ Years: $300/mo. ▪ Off-sets Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Revenue_Analyst.pdf and regular reports issued by the office and (3) take part in the rotation of duties for regular daily and monthly reports published/transmitted by the office. Applicants should have the following skills and characteristics: ➢ Possession of a bachelor’s degree Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Fiscal_Analyst.pdf and regular reports issued by the office and (3) take part in the rotation of duties for regular daily and monthly reports published/transmitted by the office. Applicants should have the following skills and characteristics: ➢ Possession of a bachelor’s degree Hits: 1
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf IFO. 4 Unconventional gas only. December 2023 production estimated by the IFO. 5 Annual average price of natural gas near-month settlements on the New York Mercantile Exchange, upon which the impact fee schedule is based. Independent Fiscal Office 21 February Hits: 1
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf 5% 5.0% 4.8% Job Gains (000s, ann rate) 65.0 56.7 45.4 49.5 37.2 Monthly Data May June July Aug Sept Zillow PA Home Sales 2.1% -7.7% 2.1% -3.5% --- Zillow PA Hits: 1
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf under such conditions. The latest readings of the consumer confidence index reveal that confidence has dropped for the latest two months.  International economic growth appears to be decelerating across all major U.S. trading partners: the European Union, Canada, Mexico Hits: 1
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf pollution ▪ Provide up-front funds for farmers that may lack access to capital ▪ Benefits small farmers that must wait 12 months to sell credit October 24, 2022 10 Key Takeaways We can still measure the effectiveness of tax incentive programs without Hits: 1
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf costs accelerate) Policymakers should consider recession scenarios  Rainy Day Fund = $340 million  Recommended: 5% ($1.8b) or 2 months operating ($6.0b) February 28, 2020 22 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 1
Economic_Summit_Presentation_Sept_2023.pdf forgiveness to derive underlying deficit. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, RedFin, FHFA, Monthly Treasury Statement, Congressional Budget Office. CreationDate: 2023-09-13 13:17:42 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate Hits: 1
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf Consumer Debt 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 0.3% Note: % Renters Deferring/Not Paying reflects payment status from prior month. Value for 2020.1 is first survey for week that begins April 23 (week 1). Value for 2020.2 is Hits: 1
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf from DOH for the first half of the year and are adjusted to full-year estimates. Births in the final months of 2020 1 The U.S. Census population estimates for states only provides single-year age estimates to age 84 Hits: 1
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf full fiscal year will be needed to evaluate the impact of the rate change. If data for the first eight months of the fiscal year are representative, then it would be difficult for other revenue sources to increase enough to offset Hits: 1
April_1_Revenue_Update.pdf insurance premiums (IPT) and bank shares (BS) taxes are remitted in March, and collections totaled $2.46 billion for the month, $306 million higher than projected last June. June IPT collections are expected to be roughly $20 million below estimate, as Hits: 1
2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdf includes gasoline and utilities • US Check-Savings peaks in Mar 2022 +38%; falls to +32% May 2024; flat last few months • Most stock and home gains unrealized, but support propensity to spend Slide 6 Initial Revenue Estimate Figure 1.2 Asset Hits: 1
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf in PA consumer debt  Mortgages and auto loans | delinquency rates remain very low  2019 Q4 data released next month PA labor market  Can it continue to expand at moderate pace?  Does tight labor market/demographics affect business Hits: 1
Pensions based on the annuity payment received in the June prior to the July it would be issued, essentially a 13th monthly check for the years ... read more HB 2373 Summary • Public Safety Employee Benefit • Survivor Benefits 3221 Benham Would remove provisions Hits: 1
Links Bureau of Labor Statistics • Census Bureau • Weekly Jobless Claims • Employment Situation • Advance Retail Sales • Existing Home Sales • GDP and Profits • Monthly Personal Income • New Residential Sales • Case-Shiller Home Prices • Consumer Confidence PA Economic Indicators • Labor Force and Employment • Quarterly Personal Hits: 1
About IFO 2017 and her primary responsibilities include forecasting revenues for several tax sources, leading tax credit program reviews, and working on monthly economic and revenue updates. Other responsibilities include managing the office website, social media platforms and media requests. Rachel Flaugh Fiscal Hits: 1