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September 2021 Economic Update

The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, monthly, news, update

August 2021 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.57 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $25.9 million (1.0%) compared to August 2020.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget.

Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue

July 2021 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $1.40 billion (-34.2%) compared to July 2020. July 2020 collections included roughly $1.62 billion in revenue that was shifted from FY 2019-20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July 2021 revenues exceeded the prior year by $216.2 million (8.7%).

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

June 2021 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $40.39 billion in General Fund revenues for FY 2020-21, an increase of $8.12 billion (25.1%) from the prior fiscal year.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

June 2021 Economic Update

The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, monthly, news

May 2021 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $3.95 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $1.84 billion (87.5%) compared to May 2020.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

May 2021 Economic Update

The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

April 2021 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $3.96 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $1.78 billion (81.7%) compared to April 2020.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

April 2021 Economic Update

The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

March 2021 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $4.84 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $407.9 million (9.2%) compared to March 2020.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

March 2021 Economic Update

The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

February 2021 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.68 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $516.3 million (23.8%) compared to February 2020.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

February 2021 Economic Update

The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

January 2021 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.66 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $412.6 million (-13.4%) compared to January 2020. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

January 2021 Economic Update

The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

December 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $3.68 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $774.3 million (26.6%) compared to December 2019. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

December 2020 Economic Update

The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

November 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $18.3 million (-0.8%) compared to November 2019.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

November 2020 Economic Update

The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

October 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.59 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $77.5 million (2.9%) compared to October 2019.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

October 2020 Economic Update

The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

September 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $3.26 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $76.7 million (2.4%) compared to September 2019.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

September 2020 Economic Update

The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

August 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget.

Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue

August 2020 Economic Update

The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, monthly, news

July 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

July 2020 Economic Update

The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

June 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. 

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

June 2020 Economic Update

The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, monthly, news

May 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

May 2020 Economic Update

The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, monthly, news

April 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

April 2020 Economic Update

The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, monthly, news

March 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million.

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

February 2020

The Commonwealth collected $2.17 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $125.9 million compared to February 2019.

Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue

JANUARY 2020

The Commonwealth collected $3.07 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $186.0 million compared to January 2019.

Tags: economic, estimates, monthly, revenue

September 2021 Economic Update

The September edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

09/16/2021

monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget.

08/31/2021

Labor Market Update- August 2021

The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month.

08/24/2021

August 2021 Economic Update

The August edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

08/12/2021

Labor Market Update- July 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. 

07/19/2021

July 2021 Economic Update

The July edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

07/14/2021

Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

06/23/2021

June 2021 Economic Update

The June edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

06/17/2021

Labor Market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

06/03/2021

May 2021 Economic Update

The May edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

05/18/2021

April 2021 Economic Update

The April edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

04/28/2021

March 2021 Economic Update

The March edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

03/22/2021

Revised monthly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020.

02/23/2021

February 2021 Economic Update

The February edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

02/18/2021

January 2021 Economic Update

The January edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

01/20/2021

December 2020 Economic Update

The December edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

12/16/2020

November 2020 Economic Update

The November edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

11/25/2020

October 2020 Economic Update

The October edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

10/22/2020

September 2020 Economic Update

The September edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

09/23/2020

monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget.

08/27/2020

August 2020 Economic Update

The August edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

08/25/2020

July 2020 Economic Update

The July edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

07/23/2020

June 2020 Economic Update

The June edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

06/17/2020

May 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

06/01/2020

May 2020 Economic Update

The May edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

05/20/2020

April 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates.

05/01/2020

April 2020 Economic Update

The April edition of our monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

04/22/2020

March 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million.

04/01/2020

IFO News Stand - March Edition

The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

03/25/2020

IFO News Stand - February Edition

The February edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

02/20/2020

IFO News Stand - January Edition

The January edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

01/15/2020

IFO News Stand - December Edition

The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

12/20/2019

IFO News Stand-October Edition

The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

10/24/2019

IFO NEWS STAND - SEPTEMBER EDITION

The September edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

09/25/2019

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 

08/28/2019

monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget.

08/08/2019

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/18/2019

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/20/2019

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/22/2019

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/22/2019

IFO News Stand - March Edition

The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

03/19/2019

IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION

The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

12/11/2018

IFO News Stand - November Edition

The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

11/20/2018

IFO News Stand - October Edition

The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

10/17/2018

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

08/20/2018

monthly AND QUARTERLY REVENUE ESTIMATES

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget.

07/30/2018

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/24/2018

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/19/2018

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/16/2018

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/20/2018

Updated monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget.

12/21/2017

monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget.

08/10/2017

2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

the premium on behalf of active employees (although actual monetary contributions did not begin until 1966, with a four dollar monthly payment). In 1963, Act 518 permitted retiring employees to convert their active employee Blue Cross/Blue Shield healthcare benefit to PEBTF is provided in Appendix VI). The arrangement for that program requires that the PEBTF invoice the Office of Administration monthly for the cost of claims and administra- tive expenses, less other sources of income such as subscriber premiums and independ-

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

Class T-H, the highest average compensation received as an active member during any three nonoverlapping periods of 12 consecutive months with the compensation for part-time service being annualized on the basis of the fractional portion of the school year 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 12 consecutive months, with the compensation for part- time service being annualized on the basis of the fractional portion of the school year

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2002_drop_report.pdf

continue employment and continue to receive wages or salary as usual. But, instead of deferring retirement, the employee’s regular monthly retirement payments commence and are deposited into an interest bearing account. At the conclusion of employment, which coincides with the drop participation period, the employee leaves service, receives the balance in the interest bearing account and begins to receive regular monthly retirement benefit payments. The ability to continue employment at full salary, after retirement benefits commence, allows the employee to accumulate

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

for vesting. Benefit Payment Options – Depending upon the local government's contract, employees may choose individ- ual alternatives for the monthly retirement allowance or may select from a list of options. At the time of retirement, a member may elect to receive a single life annuity (a retirement allowance payable throughout life providing the maximum amount of monthly payments available; but ceasing Summary of Plan Provisions. (Cont'd) - 39 - when the retiree dies). At the time of retirement

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REU-2019-12.pdf

On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections were $58.5 million (-2.0 percent) below estimate for December and $213.9 million (1.4 percent) above estimate for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues. CNIT

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REU-2019-11.pdf

On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of November were above estimate by $42.1 million (1.8 percent) and by $272.0 million (2.2 percent

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

from the Federal Housing Finance Agency confirm these trends in Pennsylvania (3.7% sales price growth). Other data show the months’ supply of inventory has declined to 5.8 months (-6.3%) in 2016. The months’ supply is the number of months it would take for current inventory to be

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

1% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA ELECTRICITY MARKET TRENDS The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases an Electricity Monthly Update 1 , which provides historical revenues, retail sales (demand) and average retail prices of electricity on national, regional and state of heat. 2 Decreased demand has likely applied downward pressure on recent prices. Average retail prices in the first six months of 2016 were 1.1% lower than in the first half of 2015, driven by declines in the commercial (-3

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

30,258 $644 Growth 1.0% 2.6% -41.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INCREASES In recent months, U.S. economic uncertainty has increased due to weak job growth, tepid business investment and pressure on corporate profits. Those One timely indicator of the state economy is employment growth, which remains solid. Based on data from the first five months of the year, the state is on pace to add 54,500 jobs in 2016, which is comparable to last

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues exceeded the September estimate by $111.0 million and by $86.2 million for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was due to stronger than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and escheat collections. September

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

roughly 2.4% next year if Social Security recipients are to receive a 2.0% COLA in 2017. October 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Oct-15 $2,132 $2,109 $23 Growth -4.9% -4.6% -27 Completed Home Sales 10 2.9% 6.9% 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 13.2% 12.9% 12.3% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly

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REU-2020-02.pdf

In August 2019, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For February, General Fund revenues exceeded the estimate by $102.9 million (5.0 percent) and by $298.4 million (1.4 percent) for the fiscal-year- to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was a result of stronger than expected collections in corporate net income tax (CNIT), gross receipts tax (GRT) and

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

increased by only 0.7 percent from the same period in the prior fiscal year. 1 For the latest three months, collections have increased by only 0.8 percent. Sales tax revenues are critical to the state budget because each percentage Reserve Board of New York show that PA per capita consumer debt levels increased (1.3%) during the past nine months. An increase in credit card, auto and student loan debt more than offset a slight decline in mortgage debt. Second

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

billions. Deposits attributed to Pennsylvania banking activity. 2 Annual average growth since 2006. 3 Thousands of payroll jobs. August 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Aug-15 $1,868 $1,848 $20 Growth 4.3% 4.1% 23 Completed Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through January, total General Fund revenues are $462 million, or 3 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. Most of the year-to-date overage occurred in the current month. January 2018 total General Fund collections exceeded estimate by $366 million, due largely to the receipt of $200 million from

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through April, total General Fund revenues are $173 million, or 0.6 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of April, General Fund collections were $325 million (-8.0 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

and services for the elderly and disabled ($21,479) being somewhat lower than the average for that sector. June 2017 Monthly Trends Report Sector 1 2015 2016 Health Care and Social Assistance 11,459 21,012 Ambulatory Health Care Svcs. 2 services for the elderly and disabled. Annual Change in Pennsylvania Employment 1 The QCEW data are used to benchmark the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) series discussed by various media outlets. United States Pennsylvania Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

year basis. The latest reading shows that overall food price levels in the U.S. have declined for 9 consecutive months, which represents the longest period of food deflation since the 1960s, excluding the 2009 recession. 2 Milk prices have recorded be modest, since dairy purchases comprise a little more than ten percent of consumer spending on groceries. 5 September 2016 Monthly Trends Report Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Milk Marketing Board, “Wholesale Retail Pricing,” Jan 2014-Aug 2016. Notes: Prices reflect the average

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

real-time measure of the state of the housing market, though there is typically a lag of one or two months’ time between buyer engagement, the actual closing of a sale, and the collection and remittance of tax. Revenues this fiscal into the Pennsylvania housing market, because the active period for home sales typically begins in the second quarter. April 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Pennsylvania Association of Realtors, “Pennsylvania Q4- 2015 Statewide Report,” January 2016, and “Pennsylvania Q1-2016 Statewide Report

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

impact on tax collections in March and April, when corporations remit their final payments for tax year 2015. February 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 will be released March Completed Home Sales 10 6.9% 8.2% 8.3% 2.0% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1,808 $1,796 $12 Growth 4.3% 3 Industrial Electricity Sales 13 2.4% -3.5% -4.4% n.a. -0.6% -2.3% -1.6% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

U.S. data: CPS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16-19 51.9% 48.8% 44.4% 40.9% Monthly Trends Report General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul 2015 $2,135 $2,097 $38 Growth -4.9% 5 Completed Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.3% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Department of Labor—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly payroll

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Oct-12 7.9% 170.3 7 3.74 1,412 2.2% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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REU-2020-01.pdf

On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections for January fell below estimate by $18.4 million 0.6 percent). Fiscal- year-to-date (FYTD) collections are exceeding estimate by $195.4 million (1.1 percent). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections, which

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For May, General Fund collections exceeded estimate ($17.4 million) and are $907.8 million (2.9 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was the result of strong collections in sales and use tax (SUT) countered by weaker than expected collections in

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections met estimate for March (+$2.0 million) and gross receipts tax, cigarette tax and non-tax revenues. PIT collections were above estimate by $10.0 million for the month. The overage was due to withholding ($5.7 million) and estimated ($4.3 million) payments. FYTD collections are below estimate

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $154.1 million (7.1%) above estimate date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher than expected, while personal income tax (PIT) fell below

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first four months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $9.6 million (-0.1 percent) below the IFO’s official

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

new trend of graduates in search of a lower cost of living, which can be found in Pennsylvania. April 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-YEAR PUMS 2015. 2 The Institute for College Access Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -6.1% -4.9% -4.9% n.a. -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

associated change in consumer habits and (2) tighter underwriting standards that hindered loans to potential new homeowners. 3 March 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 Consumers Take a Credit Card Breather, The Wall Street Journal. March 2017. 2 Project on Student Debt Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -3.9% -6.2% -4.9% -4.9% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% 0.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

contraction explains some of the weakness in their real GDP growth rates from the first half of 2016. December 2016 Monthly Trends Report 2016 Real GDP Growth by State State Q1 Q2 First Half New York 5.6% 0.1% 2 Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -2.5% -3.9% -6.2% -4.9% -4.0% -2.2% -2.8% -0.6% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

columns) suggests that the employment contraction may have abated, more employment data are necessary to confirm that outcome. November 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Provided by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Labor and Industry. 2 Released on November 30, 2016. 3 Natural Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -5.3% -1.0% -3.4% n.a. -4.5% -1.7% -2.3% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

of average wage growth, and possibly higher real and nominal economic growth for Pennsylvania and the U.S. October 2016 Monthly Trends Report Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Annual Wage Growth Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -5.3% -1.0% -3.4% n.a. -4.5% -1.7% -2.3% n.a. Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

6% 2.5% -44.4% Dollar amounts are in millions. CONSUMER SPENDING TRENDS DIVERGE The U.S. Census Bureau publishes monthly data on retail sales by sector (excludes services), which is used as an indicator for U.S. consumer spending trends online shopping), it is unclear if others will reverse (i.e., less dining out if gasoline prices increase). May 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 The Wall Street Journal, “Home Depot Tops Views, Boosts Guidance,” May 17, 2016. Sector Sales as a

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

or independent contractors. It also excludes most partners employed in partnerships as well as owners of S corporations. January 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State Area Employment Data- base. Data exclude military personnel and agricultural Completed Home Sales 10 6.9% 8.2% 8.3% 2.2% 12.4% 11.8% 13.3% 5.0% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

4,862 8,076 6,133 2,974 7,737 7,520 57,880 16,117 188,003 September 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Sept-15 $2,733 $2,710 $23 Growth 6.1% 5.7% 87 Completed Home Sales 10 -3.8% 2.9% 6.9% 8.2% 0.4% 7.7% 12.7% 10.8% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in monthly

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REU-2019-10.pdf

On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of October exceeded estimate by $143.7 million (5.7 percent) and by $229.8 million (2.3 percent) for

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $59.3 million (3.0%) above estimate for February and $379.9 million (1.9%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly surplus was largely due to higher than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. Monthly CNIT collections were above estimate

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first five months of FY 2017 -18, total General Fund revenues were $203.1 million (1.8 percent) above the IFO’s official

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

lower growth path, or represents an unusual data point due to weak year-end bonuses or seasonal hiring. March 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 See Table SQ5N under the “State Quarterly Personal Income” link at http://www.bea.gov/regional/index Industrial Electricity Sales 13 -2.9% -3.6% -3.8% -5.3% -2.4% -1.6% -1.2% -4.5% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll

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MER-2014-04.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT.pdf

the Com- monwealth, ratings vary across veterans homes. The U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Ser- vices (CMS) provides monthly ratings for nursing homes. In January 2021, the weighted average of the overall CMS rating was 3.9 (1 = worst increased 4.6 percent per annum over this time period. These pension payments are largely federal gov- ernment expenditures paid monthly to Pennsylvania veterans, most of whom reside in the state. The de- partment provides annual Veterans Trust Fund grants to

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $19.5 million (-0.8 percent) below a result of strength in both non-motor and motor vehicle SUT collections. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for the month exceeded estimate by $4.2 million and fiscal year collections are essentially meeting estimate. FYTD PIT collections are below estimate

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through February, total General Fund revenues are $619 million, or 3.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated are $17 million (-1.8 percent) below estimate for the fiscal year. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments for the month outpaced the estimate by $16 million (38.0 percent). Final payments were strong, exceeding estimate by $16 million (75.8

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revised monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 The new release includes the 231 $13,980 $251 Growth 5.8% 5.1% 70.6% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS December 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state

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MER-2015-01.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2014-12.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

45,000. 24.6% 28.0% 34.1% 39.4% 41.5% Actual tax rate for Fiscal Year 2010-2011, Monthly Revenue Report June 2012 Department of Revenue, p. 4. 8 Total Tax Revenues for Fiscal Year 2010-2011, Monthly Revenue Report June 2012, Department of Revenue, 9 p. 4. - 9 - TABLE 1 PERSONAL INCOME TAX, ADDITIONAL REVENUE ESTIMATES Tax

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

A 20 years and age 60 or any age w/25 years service Locally determined up to maximum of $200 monthly Member is not vested until reaching normal retire- ment eligibility. Local boards have discretion in determining benefit amounts for departments service; Age 60 w/5 years or any age w/28 years service $5 x years of service credit paid monthly No vesting rights exist until member attains eligibility for normal retirement. 10 year cliff 20 years service or 10 years

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT.pdf

on a statewide basis and the rate of emergency department utilization decreased from 74.0 visits per 1,000 member months to 66.1. Child welfare services are shifting focus to prevention services in combination with the reduc- tion in out- in Part 3 of the DHS Performance-Based Budget. Over the last three years, the average cost per member per month increased by 2.4 percent per annum. Due to cost shifting and various one-time measures, expenditures can fluctuate from

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For July, General Fund collections were $2,329.2 million and were and annual payments also recorded gains, albeit on a much smaller base. SUT collections were $925.4 million for the month, an $86.0 million (-8.5 percent) reduction from the prior year. The decline was due to a one-time

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $137.8 million (4.7 percent) above million) due to broad strength in estimated payments (tax year 2018) and unusually large settlement payments from older tax years. Monthly SUT collections were above estimate ($25.5 million). The overage was due to non-motor vehicle collections ($31.5 million

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For June, General Fund collections were $154 million (-4.7 percent) below estimate due to the lack of 32,003 $2,564 Growth 9.2% 4.1% 179.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS June 2018 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 The update incorporated estimates of various tax law changes, authorized transfers and borrowing

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MER-2015-04.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2014-02.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

085 $2,063 $22 Growth 5.7% 6.7% -42.4% Dollar amounts are in millions. PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME MONTHLY TRENDS JULY 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - Amount 2017 Q1 Annual Growth 1 AAGR 2 2012-2017 Maryland $59,390 4 to 2017Q1. 2 Average annual growth rate from 2012Q1 to 2017Q1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 See Monthly Trends Report June 2017 for more information. http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/releases. cfm?type=1. 2 The Wall

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MER-2015-06.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2015-03.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2015-02.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2014-01.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 8.1% 156.7 6.1% 8.0% 76 number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. Data are from the US Department of Labor - Survey of Households. Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Data are from

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

119.5% FYTD $4,214 $4,149 $65 Growth 5.7% 5.6% 12.2% Dollar amounts are in millions. MONTHLY TRENDS AUGUST 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), “Analysis of Over- dose Deaths in Pennsylvania, 2016,” July Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund

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MER-2014-11.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2014-09.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2014-08.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2014-03.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Dec 7.8% 201.0 4 7 3.31 1,426 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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RTR-2015-01.pdf

2.4 billion in General Fund revenues in January, an increase of $37 million (1.6%) over January 2014. The monthly growth rate is affected by the $80 million transfer of liquor store profits, which occurred in March of the prior growth was $645 million (4.4%).  Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $32 million (35.9%) for the month. Some of the increase is attributable to distributions from the clearing account ($21 million) that were initially posted to that

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MER-2014-10.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2014-07.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in monthly payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance

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MER-2013-12.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a r c h 2 0 1 3 Jan 7.9% 195.0 4.4% 11.4% 1 3.31 1,498 1.6% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 181.7 4.3% 5 3.45 1,416 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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RTR-2015-03.pdf

date growth was $875 million (4.3%). • Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $96 million (22.8%) for the month and $252 million (15.3%) for the fiscal year-to-date compared to the same periods in the prior fiscal year. • Personal income tax withholding revenues increased $33 million (4.2%) for the month and $248 million (3.8%) for the fiscal year-to-date. The twelve-month average displays a growth rate of

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. Compared to those estimates, General Fund collections of $2,192.9 million than expected non-motor collections, which exceeded estimate by $29.7 million (3.7 percent). Motor vehicle collections for the month were short by $0.9 million (-0.6 percent). FYTD SUT collections are $83.7 million (-4.2 percent) under

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections exceeded estimate for April ($508.6 million) and are $890.5 million (3.1%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by unusually strong personal income tax (PIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For the month of May, General Fund collections were $197 million (-7.4 percent) below estimate but are roughly meeting estimate for the

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MER-2014-06.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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MER-2014-05.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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MER-2013-11.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Nov-12 7.7% 138.7 5 3.46 1,416 1.8% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Jul 8.3% 104.3 4.2% 8 3.44 1,379 1.4% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Jun 8.2% 66.7 7 3.54 1,362 1.7% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 May 8.2% 99.3 5.6% 8 5 3.73 1,310 1.7% Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Advance Retail

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

and Constitutional Issues – Appendix XVI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453 SERS and PSERS Holdings in Companies Targeted For Divestment Tables – Table I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 12 Month Return of Targeted Companies vs. MSCI EAFE – Table II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 State Employees’ Retirement System, Potential Impact of Divestment on Employer take action within 90 days, the retirement system would be required to divest 50% of all direct holdings within nine months and 100% of all direct holdings in the publicly-traded company within 15 months. The retirement systems would also be

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RTR-2015-04.pdf

to-date growth is 6.1%.  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $34 million (4.3%) for the month and by $282 million (3.8%) for the fiscal year-to-date. The three-month and twelve-month growth rates averaged 5.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Non-withholding revenues increased by $194 million (18

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RTR-2015-02.pdf

below and on the next page.  Sales and use tax collections increased by $30 million (4.8%) for the month and $285 million (4.7%) for the fiscal year-to-date. Nonmotor vehicle sales tax collections grew by $20 million (3.7%) for the month and $206 million (3.9%) for the fiscal year-to-date. The three and twelve-month growth rates were 3

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

categories. 2 Data represent the percentage of adults who reported there was a time in the past 12 months when they needed to see a doctor but could not because of the cost. 1 Premature death is an age-adjusted measure 9,850 9,925 # Cancer screenings 3,485 2,443 2,350 3,120 3,305 -- # Children < 72 months old screened for lead (000s) 137.9 140.1 146.2 151.8 161.0 -- # Callers to FREE Quitline (000s) -- -- 41.1

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

opportunities to track the average wage and the number of individuals that remain employed for more than 6 months after leaving TANF for employment. The department is currently taking steps to coordinate with L&I to collect this information. Pennsylvania’s PA Department of Human Services. 3 Percent of children receiving 6+ well child visits in their first 15 months of life. Data only include Medicaid. 4 Percent of diabetics with poor control of hemoglobin A1c (>9%). A lower percentage is better

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $99.1 million (-3.3%) below estimate above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Sales and use tax (SUT) came in above estimate for the month while corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) came in below estimate. Other tax and non-tax

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $80.8 million (2.9%) above estimate date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher than expected, while personal income tax (PIT) fell below

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through March, total General Fund revenues are $498 million, or 2.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of March, General Fund collections were $121 million (-2.7 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first three months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $25.3 million (0.4 percent) above the IFO’s official

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MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf

Monthly Trends Report Independent Fiscal Office Highlights of the October Report October 2015 General Fund revenues declined by $110 million (-4.9%) compared to the same month in the prior year. However, the comparison with the prior year is affected by one-time payments and timing issues

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

issue emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emer- gency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of house- hold. The amount for CY 2021 ($0.6 billion) represents six months (January through June) of emergency benefits.  Direct state sup- port reflects funds allocated directly to states for general and

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RTR-2014-07.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For the first month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of $323 million the table below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $83 million, or 4.4%. The one-month growth in tax revenues has exceeded the recent 3-month (2.1%) and twelve-month (0.1%) growth.  Sales

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. The amount of additional SNAP benefits for Pennsylvania households is estimated to exceed $90 million per month. The value shown ($0.3 billion) represents three months (March to May) of emergency benefits.  The business tax cuts are national

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Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf

an increase of 4.6% compared to collections for September 2011 (details on the next page). In the first three months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 3.8% to $6.07 billion. For the most recent twelve-month period, General Fund collections increased by 1.3% over the same period in the prior year. Change in General Fund

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Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf

12.23 billion. General Fund collections increased by 6.3% and 2.1% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source December 2012 FY 12-13 to Date 3 month rolling 12 month rolling Corporate Net Income $134.9 $298.3 $208.8 $246.2 percent change 46.6% 37

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf

a decline of 0.6% compared to collections for August 2011 (details on the next page). In the first two months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 3.2% to $3.64 billion. For the most recent three month period, collections declined by 4.8% versus the same period in the prior year. For the twelve month period, General

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

sectors. The regional natural gas market will partly determine whether or not Pennsylvania follows these projected national trends. February 2017 Monthly Trends Report PA Electricity Generation By Source 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia Completed Home Sales 10 5.7% 4.0% 0.8% 5.6% 11.2% 11.2% 2.8% 5.2% Monthly Economic Indicators Notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

This report uses the latest economic data through October 23, 2020 and revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year. The data suggest that the state will face unique short- and long-term challenges due to the lingering estimate of General Fund revenues for FY 2020-21 as revenues have outperformed expectations for the first four months of the fiscal year. An important factor that drives that outcome is the substantial federal stimulus monies that have been injected into

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

would receive an annual retirement benefit of $60,000 x 30 x 0.020 = $36,000, or $3,000 per month. The retirement benefits administered by the Systems are funded through employee contributions, investment earnings and employer contributions. The general benefit for new members would be equal to the average compensation of the five highest non-overlapping periods of twelve consecutive months for PSERS, and the five high- est calendar years for SERS. For SERS, the amount of voluntary overtime pay included

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Independent Fiscal Office

News Stand & Other Featured Releases September 2021 Economic Update Revenue & Economic Update September 16, 2021 The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $25.9 million (1.0%) compared to August 2020. ... (Full Report) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates Revenue Estimates August 31, 2021 This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22

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RTR-2014-11.pdf

over the prior fiscal year. Withholding, comprising the majority of these revenues, increased by $12 million (1.9%) for the month and $121 million (3.4%) for the fiscal year. The three and twelve-month growth rates for withholding were 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively.  Sales and use tax revenues increased by $26

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RTR-2014-04.pdf

below and on the next page.  Total tax revenues declined by $143 million (-4.2%). Over the past three months, revenues declined by $137 million (-1.5%) compared to the same period last year.  Personal income tax remittances declined by $85 million (-4.5%) for the month. Nonwithholding declined $213 million (-17.1%) due to very weak annual payments. Due to technical factors, withholding increased by $128

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RTR-2014-03.pdf

on the next page.  Total tax revenues grew by less than $1 million (0.0%). Over the past three months, revenues increased by $14 million (0.2%) compared to the same period last year.  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $63 million (17.7%) for the month. Most of the increase was in final payments, which were $51 million (41.0%) higher than the prior year. Estimated

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Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf

an increase of 12.9% compared to collections for October 2011 (details on the next page). In the first four months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 5.9% to $8.11 billion. General Fund collections increased by 5.5% and 2.0% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For July, the first month of fiscal year 2013-14, the Commonwealth collected $1.92 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of 4.3% over July 2012. General Fund collections increased by 1.8% over the most recent three-month period. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $99 million (5

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf

revenues in July, an increase of 7.2% over the amount collected in July 2011. For the most recent three month period, collections declined by 2.9% compared to the same period in the prior year. For the most recent twelve month period, collections increased by 1.0%. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

Cash Flow Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax collections based on recent transactions. Payment rules are simple and refunds are generally not paid because firms merely forward the tax year and calendar year are the same. The exception is certain firms whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2021, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax collections based on recent transactions. Payment rules are simple and refunds are generally not paid because firms merely forward any taxes year and calendar year are the same. The exception is certain firms whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2020, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax year 2018

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly tax collections based on recent transactions. Payment rules are simple and refunds are generally not paid because firms merely forward any taxes year and calendar year are the same. The exception is certain firms whose accounting year ends in a month other than December.) However, based on revenues received through May 2019, analysts can construct a fairly accurate estimate of tax year 2017

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. The amount of additional SNAP benefits for Pennsylvania households is estimated to exceed $90 million per month. The value shown ($0.4 billion) represents four months (March to June) of emergency benefits.  The business tax cuts are national

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

Last July, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For June, General Fund collections exceeded estimate by $50.9 million revenues were under estimate by $11.6 million as a result of lower than predicted escheats collections (-$18.9 million). Monthly licenses and fees exceeded estimate in June due to receipt of a $10 million gaming license fee that was not

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 based on: (1) the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the IFO treasury collections ($1 million) partially offset the weak escheats and other miscellaneous collections. July and August are smaller revenue collections months. September collections will include both CNIT and PIT quarterly estimated payments and should be a better indicator of how collections

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

the corresponding business closures and other mitigation efforts had a significant impact on March 2020 revenue collections. Compared to the monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019, March collections of $4.4 billion were $331.8 percent) below estimate. (See table on next page.) The IFO estimates that the virus contributed roughly $200 million to the monthly shortfall: (1) $50 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $90 million in processing delays (expected to

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Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Job Gains Remain in Holding Pattern This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re- despite the transfer of federal funds. The year-over-year change in payroll jobs is similar for the latest three months of data at roughly 435,000 fewer payroll jobs, and has only modestly improved relative to the annual job loss

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

Impact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re- Pennsylvania employment gains have stagnated. The year-over-year change in payroll jobs is nearly identical for the latest three months of data at roughly 440,000 fewer payroll jobs. (Note: This comparison uses non- seasonally adjusted data and assumes a

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Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf

PA Payroll Jobs Continue to Recover, but Significant Shortfall Remains This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the year-over-year (YOY) change in payroll jobs is -362,500, compared to roughly -410,000 for the two prior months. (See table below. This comparison uses non-seasonally adjusted data (i.e., actual amounts) and assumes a no-pandemic scenario

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RTR-2014-12.pdf

October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 5.6%.  Tax revenues increased by $287 million (12.2%) for the month and $746 million (6.1%) for the fiscal year. Some of the monthly revenue growth is attributable to a technical factor affecting the timing of personal income tax withholding deposits.  Corporate net

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RTR-2014-05.pdf

from the prior year, yet remain $40 million (2.0%) above the prior fiscal year-to-date. For the twelve- month period, remittances have been flat. • Financial institutions tax revenues increased by $30 million from the prior year due to atypical from the prior fiscal year-to-date. Nonmotor deposits declined by $3 million (-0.4%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively. Motor vehicle deposits increased by $7 million (6.9%), bringing the

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RTR-2013-11.pdf

million).  Sales and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits grew by $21 million (3.4%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 2.4% and 1.7%, respectively. Motor vehicle remittances decreased by $7 million (-7.6%). Fiscal year- million from last year (6.1%).  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $12 million (1.8%) for the month, and the twelve-month growth rate is 2.6%. Nonwithholding receipts decreased by $3 million (-10.5%). Despite this recent

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RTR-2013-10.pdf

income tax ($29 million).  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $3 million (2.4%). Estimated payments for the month declined by $28 million (38.9%), but final payments more than offset that decline with an increase of $31 million return.  Sales and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits grew by $16 million (2.4%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 2.9% and 1.4%, respectively. Motor vehicle remittances increased by $12 million (13.1%). Over the

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Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf

a decrease of 2.3% compared to collections for November 2011 (details on the next page). In the first five months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 4.4% to $9.79 billion. General Fund collections increased by 5.1% and 1.4% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue

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Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf

25.96 billion. General Fund collections increased by 4.2% and 2.2% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $134 million use tax receipts.  Corporate net income tax collections increased by $42 million (115%). Approximately $21 million collected in prior months was distributed to this tax from the corporate tax clearing account in May, accounting for some of the growth for

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Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf

16.19 billion. General Fund collections increased by 4.3% and 2.0% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenue fell by $85 million (-5.0%) for the month, primarily due to a decline of $98 million in personal income tax collections.  Personal income tax receipts declined for

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

YOY) basis. The All Items Less Shelter category, which excludes housing and more accurately reflects actual consumer purchases during the month, grew 6.6% YOY after peaking at 6.8% in June. Many travel-related categories continue to record strong YOY based on the May 2021 Case-Shiller Index. Rental prices are “sticky” because the same renters are not surveyed every month and most renters enter leases for at least one full year. Landlords may also be hesitant to raise prices to

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Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Payroll Jobs Record Strong Gains in June This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the summer and fall. Based on the latest data for June 2021, Pennsylvania payroll job creation improved notably relative to prior months. For June, the computed year-over-year change in payroll jobs is -394,500, compared to roughly -440,000 for

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. 2 IFO Reports and Analyses Monthly Reports: • Revenue Trends Report. Displays monthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period of the prior year. Presents three-month

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RTR-2014-10.pdf

prior fiscal year-to-date. Adjusted for the large inheritance tax payment, tax revenues increased by 2.1% for the month and 3.9% for the fiscal year.  Corporate net income tax revenues decreased by $23 million (-16.9%) compared over the prior fiscal year-to-date. Withholding, which comprises the majority of these revenues, posted one, three and twelve-month growth rates of 4.0%, 3.7% and 3.0%, respectively. Nonwitholding revenues increased by $1 million (0.8%) over

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RTR-2014-01.pdf

0%) compared to January 2013. o Nonmotor vehicle deposits increased by $27 million (3.9%), bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. o Motor vehicle tax remittances declined by $3 million (-3.6% Fiscal year-to-date motor vehicle revenues are $36 million (5.4%) higher than last year. Over the last three months revenues declined by 0.3%, and the twelve-month growth rate is 3.3%.  Personal income tax remittances declined

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

25%) explain over 80% of increased sales. Pennsylvania Gaming Revenue Sets Record in March The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board released monthly gaming revenues for March 2021. Gaming revenues totaled $403.1 million, surpassing the previous monthly high of $320.2 million in October 2020. Gaming revenues include slot machines, tables games, internet gaming, sports wagering, fantasy

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

development of PBB plans or furnishing data for tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing or fiscal analysis to the extent that staff resources are available for that purpose. 1 IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports  Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of monthly and fiscal‐year‐to‐date General Fund revenues

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RTR-2014-09.pdf

revenues increased by $276 million (4.6%). • Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $96 million (25.2%) for the month. Quarterly and final payments increased by $81 million (25.4%) and $15 million (24.2%), respectively. For the fiscal year Withholding collections increased by $25 million (3.9%), bringing fiscal year-to-date growth to 3.8% and the twelve-month average to 2.9%. September quarterly payments grew by $5 million (1.6%), and annual payments declined by $1 million

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RTR-2014-08.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For the second month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $1.8 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of $32 million was 3.5%.  Tax revenues increased by $33 million, or 1.9%. Fiscal year-to-date and recent twelve- month growth rates were 3.2% and 0.3%, respectively.  Personal income tax revenues increased by $22 million compared to

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RTR-2014-06.pdf

8.8%) from the prior year. Estimated payments were $61 million (18.0%) higher than last June, but the three-month growth rate for the tax is negative (-1.9%) due to weak final payments. • Sales and use tax nonmotor revenues million (10.3%) and motor vehicle collections grew $13 million (13.2%). The strong growth in nonmotor deposits for the month is largely due to an interfund transfer; the underlying growth rate was 3.5%. • Personal income tax revenues increased by

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf

14.56 billion. General Fund collections increased by 4.8% and 2.9% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenue grew by $176 million for the month, primarily due to an increase of $173 million in personal income tax collections.  Personal income tax receipts were robust

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf

5.3%) partially offset decreases in personal income tax revenues totaling $75 million (-9.8%). For the most recent three-month period, tax revenues decreased by 0.2%.  Sales and use tax deposits increased by $39 million (5.3%). Nonmotor deposits increased by $30 million (4.9%) while motor vehicle deposits increased by $8 million (8.2%). The three-month average shows that sales and use tax revenues increased by 3.1%, and the twelve-month average increased by 1

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MRU_2020_11.pdf

For November, revenue collections were $2.34 billion, which was $90.9 million above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The monthly outcome was due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections, which

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MRU-2020-08.pdf

On August 27, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 based on its official estimate released June 22. Compared to those estimates and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $392.3 million (6.3 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were $150.8 million (17.1 percent) above estimate due to overages in both non-motor vehicle (NMV

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

with the federal provision that provides for the full expensing of eligible investment placed in service during the last four months of 2010 and all of calendar year 2011. Because that provision merely pulls tax deductions forward in time, future corporate history. Yet, investors maintained a guarded outlook as indicators provided mixed signals about the economy’s prospects. Events in subsequent months would confirm their apprehension. August witnessed the bankruptcy or near bankruptcy of three large mortgage lenders. 4 Large financial institutions

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

awareness of negative environmental 1 Act 23 of 2020 extends the prohibition “until July 1, 2021 or six months after the termination of the order issued by the Governor on March 6, 2020 published at 50 PA.B. 1644 (March 21 offices that represented over 6,500 stores statewide. Data from 1,500 stores showed that over a six-month period prior to the law’s enactment, approximately 551 million (435 million plastic and 116 million paper) disposable retail bags were distributed

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

is also partially advanceable. Beginning in July, the IRS will begin to advance up to 50% of the value in monthly installments. This could provide up to $3.3 billion to parents in Pennsylvania in the second half of CY 2021 to issue emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. The amount for CY 2021 ($1.4 billion) represents projections for the entire calendar

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Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf

20.34 billion. General Fund collections increased by 2.3% and 2.0% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $74 million than offset declines in other tax revenue sources.  Corporation tax revenues increased by $95 million (4.2%) for the month and $372 million (10.2%) for the fiscal year-to-date. o Corporate net income tax and financial institutions tax

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MRU_2021_04.pdf

General Fund revenue collections were $3.96 billion in April, $277.2 million (-6.5%) lower than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly shortage was primarily due to lower than expected personal income tax (PIT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund

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MRU_2021_02.pdf

In February, General Fund revenue collections of $2.68 billion were $509.7 million (23.4 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The overage was largely 1.1 percent) above estimate. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections were $1.8 million (2.6 percent) over the monthly projections for February due to stronger than expected estimated payments ($7.7 million, 30.9 percent), which was partially offset

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MRU_2021_01.pdf

For January, General Fund revenue collections were $2.66 billion, which were $245.8 million (-8.5 percent) below the monthly projections associated with the revised Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly shortfall was the largely the result of a temporary shift in personal income tax (PIT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

September revenue collections of $3.26 billion were $347.3 million (11.9 percent) higher than the monthly projection associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The difference was attributable to sales and and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $739.6 million (8.1 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were $132.9 million (15.4 percent) above estimate due to strong non-motor vehicle (NMV) and motor

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2020 -21. For July, General Fund collections were $4.10 billion and $1.77 of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July monthly collections exceeded the prior year total by $154.8 million, or 6.6 percent. Revenues were likely bolstered by pent-

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly esti- mates for Motor License and Lottery Fund

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

June Retail Spending Increased 6.8% in Pennsylvania The U.S. Census Bureau recently released monthly state retail sales for June. Pennsylvania spending on automotive and other vehicle dealers (11.9%), food and beverage (12.0% 0.5%) and clothing and accessories (-25.6%) spending recorded declines. The U.S. Census Bureau also released the advance monthly retail sales for September. National monthly retail sales grew 7.1% from the previous September, signaling continued strength in consumer

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

of inflation for goods and services that consumers actually purchase. PA Total Wage Growth Accelerates Based on the latest four months of data, growth of wages paid to Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the state economy received a significant growth. Compared to calendar year (CY) 2020, adjusted withholding data suggest annual wage growth of 9.0% for the four months of February to May 2021. However, due to the impact of COVID-19, a better comparison is to CY 2019

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

National Wage Gains Surge On May 28, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released monthly data on U.S. personal income (NIPA Table 2.6). For March and April (latest two months), the data show that wages-salaries grew by 1.0% each month relative to the prior month, which is very

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania impact fee is based, settled at $1.50 for July. This is the lowest monthly price in over 20 years. The average price for 2020 through July is $1.79, which is a 36.5% trends related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Pennsylvania households that held a mortgage reported that 83.2% paid the previous month’s mortgage, which was lower than the national average (86.1%). A higher proportion of Pennsylvania households deferred their previous

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

is also partially advanceable. Beginning in July, the IRS will begin to advance up to 50% of the value in monthly installments. This could provide up to $3.3 billion to parents in Pennsylvania in the second half of CY 2021 to issue emergency allotments for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients. This emergency funding provides all SNAP households the maximum monthly benefit based on size of household. The amount for CY 2021 ($1.4 billion) represents projections for the entire calendar

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

10 percent since the start of December, (2) a manufacturing index that has declined in 10 of the past 12 months and (3) declining corporate profits. However, many underlying economic fundamentals remain solid. For Pennsylvania, positive fundamentals include:  A stable or national economies will enter into a recession in the near future. However, downside risks have increased in the past month, and many national forecasts now place the risk of a mild recession at 15 to 20 percent. FY 2015‐16

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RTR-2014-02.pdf

8%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date.  Total corporate taxes decreased by $6 million (-9.8%) for the month. Insurance premiums tax revenues were $6 million (55.5%) higher than last year and $2 million (4.8%) over the 35 million (4.7%) for motor vehicle sales.  Personal income tax remittances grew $30 million (4.2%) for the month and $127 million (1.9%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date. Withholding, the majority of personal income tax, increased

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RTR-2013-12.pdf

and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits decreased by $15 million (-2.1%) over last December, bringing the three and twelve-month growth rates down to 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. Motor vehicle tax remittances increased by $9 million (10.9% million from last year (6.8%).  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $11 million (1.5%) for the month, and the fiscal year-to-date growth rate is 2.2%. Nonwithholding receipts increased by $2 million (1.8%). Fiscal

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Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf

23.93 billion. General Fund collections increased by 2.0% and 2.2% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $162.4 vehicle revenues fell by $30 million (-4.4%), while motor vehicle receipts increased by $5 million (4.6%). The three month moving averages for the nonmotor and motor categories are negative at -0.8% and -0.9%, respectively. Change in General

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MRU_2021_03.pdf

General Fund revenue collections for March were $4.84 billion, $284.2 million (6.2 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was largely the result of higher than expected personal income tax (PIT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and inheritance

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

Analyst I Michaela Bowers, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates of General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

the Shelter component provides a more accurate measure of real-time consumer inflation because it reflects actual purchases during the month, and the data are not imputed. Moreover, analysts have noted the disconnect between the Shelter component and very strong gains production growth has also been modest in 2021, reducing a supply glut that restrained prices in prior years. The near-month settlement price of gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which Pennsylvania’s impact fee schedule is based

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

has filled vacant positions and bolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary at the request of members of the General Assembly, provide economic, revenue or fiscal analysis. IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

has filled vacant positions and bolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary at the request of members of the General Assembly, provide economic, revenue or fiscal analysis. IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. Reports The IFO publishes monthly reports highlighting the latest economic releases and revenue trends. In addition, the office publishes a quarterly report that reviews the and Gasoline Prices • Inflation is forecasted to remain low. Restrained economic growth will not put much upward pressure on prices. • Monthly average gasoline prices fluctuated between $3.20 and $3.99 per gallon in 2011 and 2012. Consumer Price Index (PA-

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

hoc postretirement adjustment may be provided on a temporary basis, where the increase is a one-time lump sum or monthly amount payable for a finite period. An ad hoc postretirement adjustment may also be provided on a permanent basis where of the change in the cost-of-living for retirement benefit recipients is the Consumer Price Index, which is issued monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor. The Consumer Price Index is a measure

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RTR-May 2012.pdf

6.1 325.9% 15.4 297.1% 256.6% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% 53.0 269.7% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period

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RTR-Mar 2012.pdf

3.6 443.8% 11.3 256.6% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% -79.5% 44.4 250.9% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period

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RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf

15.1 747.3% 27.0 438.3% 256.6% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% 66.4 321.8% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c a compared to the same period in

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RTR-Feb 2012.pdf

3.9 146.5% 11.6 224.0% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% -79.5% 41.5 115.4% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period

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RTR-Apr 2012.pdf

5.8 220.8% 13.2 227.0% 256.6% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% 48.4 258.7% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period

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Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf

increased by 3.5% to $28.65 billion. General Fund collections increased by 2.5% over the most recent three- month period. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages. • Tax revenues declined by $79 million (-3.0% to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source June 2013 FY 12-13 to Date 3 month rolling 12 month rolling Corporate Net Income -$40.2 $402.1 $54.1 $402.1 percent change -8.5% 19

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf

3.9 315.1% 12.5 219.8% 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% -79.5% 39.2 65.8% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c a compared to the same period in the

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

second half of CY 2021, up to 50% of the tax credit will be advanced to eligible filers in six monthly installments ($250/month for children age six and older, and $300/month for children under age six). The IFO estimates that approximately $3

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

served for short sentences to state prison more predictable. For inmates with sentences to state prison of 24 months or less, this proposal would institute a presumptive release to parole at the minimum sentence. These inmates would be released to state proposals would directly impact the inmate population. Specifically, by granting presumptive parole to individuals with sentences of 24 months or less, the reforms would reduce the inmate population by diverting individuals with shorter sentences from state prisons to community supervision. This

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MRU_2021_05.pdf

General Fund revenue collections were $3.95 billion in May, $1.33 billion (50.8%) higher than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was primarily due to personal income tax (PIT) annual payments. Fiscal-year-to- date (FYTD) General Fund collections are

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MRU-2021-06.pdf

June General Fund revenue collections were $3.77 billion, $350.7 million (10.3%) more than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was mainly due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. Fiscal year 2020-

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MRU-2020-10.pdf

Revenue collections for October were $2.59 billion, which was $275.2 million (11.9 percent) above the monthly projection associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The key variances are attributable to sales federal transfer payments distributed in 2020 Q2 and Q3, (2) a significant increase in home refinancings that likely lowered household monthly payments/increased cash flow and (3) a shift in spending from out-of-state travel, gasoline, etc., to home furnishings

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MRU-2020-04.pdf

Revenue collections of $2.18 billion in April were below monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $2.16 billion (-49.8 percent), largely due 7 percent below collections for the same period in the prior fiscal year. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for the month were significantly below estimate (-$1.48 billion), with the entire shortfall attributable to the virus. The IFO estimates that roughly

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

Medical Care inflation from 2.8% in June to 0.0% in August. Also notable is the modest growth in monthly rents (2.6%) despite data from other sources that suggest strong growth (see article below) and no acceleration for homeowner data, the expiration of the national eviction moratorium on August 26, 2021 could have implications for rental prices in future months. Monthly Economic Update September 2021 CPI-U Year-Over-Year Change Feb Apr Jun Aug Weight All Items 1.0%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

1,574%. The large increase in government support temporarily offset the decline in wages and salaries (-8.5%) for the month. Personal consumption fell 16.9% in April as states continued to implement stay-at-home measures to help contain the 48%. Consumers who live paycheck-to-paycheck had an MPC around 68%, while those who generally save more of their monthly income had an MPC of 23% in the two weeks following the receipt of the payment. After the two-week

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

is consulting with Board members regarding the time frame for transmittal of those plans and reviews. The IFO also prepares monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinates analyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19 (May 2018) Official Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19 (June 2018) Revenue Estimate Performance (July 2018) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates (July 2018) Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2018) Mid-Year Update FY 2018-19

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

scheduled to transmit four PBB plans and five tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 (May 2019) Official Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 (June 2019) Revenue Estimate Performance (July 2019) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates (August 2019) Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2019) Performance Based Budgeting PBB Plan: Department

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

24 . Sept . 2013 6 Federal Reserve Current Policy: QE3. o Sept 2012: Commits to purchase $85 billion of securities per month. o Hold down long-term interest rates such as mortgages. o Really: induce some inflation. Fed likely to “taper” or reduce purchases during next few months. o Long term: big issue is how the Fed will manage the sale of the assets it holds in its

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

New York State. The current general business conditions index fell 34 points to -21.5. This was the largest one-month drop in the survey’s history and the index’s lowest level since 2009. Manufacturing firms' expectations for business conditions six months from now also fell. The index for future business conditions declined 22 points to 1.2. Respondents were split regarding

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MRU_2021_08.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. For August, General Fund collections were $2.57 billion, or $71.5 million (2.9%) over estimate. The monthly overage was almost entirely due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Fiscal-year-

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MRU_2021_07.pdf

In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. For July, General Fund collections were $2.70 billion, or $1.40 prior year by $216.2 million (8.7%). Sales and use tax (SUT) revenues were $1.24 billion for the month, a $18.5 million (-1.5%) reduction from the prior year. Motor vehicle collections were $29.3 million (-15.3%

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

For December, revenue collections were $3.68 billion, which were $774.4 million (26.6 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The overage was primarily due to stronger tax (CNIT) collections and one-time transfers under Act 114 of 2020 (not included in the IFO’s Official Estimate). Monthly CNIT collections of $760.9 million were $333.8 million (78.2 percent) over estimate due to higher than anticipated

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

8%). The spike in used car prices is also visible in the Philadelphia-area CPI-U. During the past two months, used car prices increased at an average rate of 4.6% per month. According to an article by Edmunds, consumers are turning to used cars due to increased consumer fiscal responsibility, favorable interest

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

respectively. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government allowed forbearance on mortgage and student loans for six months (renewable), while many auto loan businesses offered optional forbearance. The New York Federal Reserve Bank reported on the status of reported that existing home sales reached a new 14- year high in the U.S., increasing for the fifth consecutive month in October. For 2020 Q3, the median single-family home price was $313,500, up 12% over last year. The

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

is expected to improve after the COVID-19 vaccine distribution. This could boost both demand and supply in the upcoming months, and new listings would enhance inventory in a tight housing market. 2020 Home Prices and Low Interest Rates Drove High professional and business services (+12,100, +1.6%), retail trade (+5,600, +1.0%) and arts-entertainment (+500, +0.8%). Monthly Economic Update March 2021 Monthly Data Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI-U dropped 0.4% in March (seasonally adjusted) compared to the prior month. The energy (-5.8%), apparel (-2.0%) and transportation services (-1.9%) categories recorded the largest declines. Despite the suspension increased 0.2%. U.S. oil prices were also impacted by the pandemic and business closures; prices recorded an unprecedented monthly decline (-54%). Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, March consumer prices declined 0.1% from February. Monthly Economic Update

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Pensions

paid firefighter, ambulance service or rescue squad member, or law enforcement officer in an amount equal to the decedent's monthly salary (adjusted annually by an amount equal to the increase in the Consumer Price Index), less the amount of any to June 30, 2007, the previous one-year window created by Act 43 of 2003. Act 43 established a twelve-month period, or "window," following enactment of the legislation during which a county retirement board subject to the provisions of the

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

first week of September ▪ Potential infrastructure package and tax changes excluded Other miscellaneous assumptions ▪ Supply constraints ease during next several months ▪ Inflation is temporary and peaks in late summer 2021 ▪ No major correction in stock or housing markets May 26, 2021 10.3 4.9 2.0 Related Points About 30% to 60% of EIPs spent. Most of that within 3 months. Most unemployment compensation is spent. Nearly 75% of non-PPP stimulus to residents with < $50k income. Per capita credit card

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

study finds that the pass-through effect on prices from higher minimum wages is entirely concentrated in the month the new minimum wage becomes effective, and the impact on prices is smaller than estimated by existing research. While previous research had The authors conclude that the movement to a $13.00 minimum wage yielded lower incomes of $74 per month for the average low-wage worker (reflects lower employment and reduced hours). It should be noted that some researchers strongly disagree with

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

amount of funds that can be borrowed through the PPP is equal to 2.5 times the firm’s average monthly payroll costs or $10 million, whichever is lower. 4 See https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares-act/assistance-for- employment gains of 3.2 to 4.8 million jobs (4.5 to 6.8 percent) in its first three months, at an average cost of $109,000 to $164,000 per job. 7  The program boosted employment at PPP-

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QRR_2017Q3.pdf

1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JULY TO SEPTEMBER Fiscal Year 2017-18 Each fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes monthly breakdowns of its annual esti- mates for the General Fund (page 2), and quarterly breakdowns for the Motor License Fund also provides context for the vari- ances between estimates and actual collections. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

late January.  Office Does Not Make Policy Recommendations. 12.Feb.2015 3 The Independent Fiscal Office  Two Regular Monthly Reports. • Monthly Economic Report. • Monthly Revenue Trends Report.  Special Studies (at request of Gen. Assembly): • HB 1776 and SB 76 – Property

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

noted that natural gas prices “have climbed more than 50% this year – with most of that happening in the last month…” In Pennsylvania, spot prices at regional hubs, as tracked by Bentek Energy, show similar trends. For the month of October, the weighted average spot price was up 192.4 percent from the prior year. For the first three

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MRU-2020-05.pdf

May revenue collections of $2.11 billion fell below monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $502.6 million (-19.3 percent) due to in various revenue sources. May fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.70 billion (-8.4 percent) below estimate. Monthly sales and use tax (SUT) collections were below estimate by $282.9 million or 28.8 percent in May, with

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

April 12. However, the number of businesses reporting a temporary or permanent shut down fell to 8% from 16% a month prior. More than 81% of surveyed firms reported seeking a Small Business Administration Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan. By May Zillow forecast as of May 12, but Zillow may update the forecast in the future when more data become available. Monthly Economic Update May 2020 Monthly Data Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Unemployment Rate 1 4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

9%. If food and energy are excluded, then average price levels increased by 1.2% relative to the prior year. Monthly Economic Update January 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7.4% 6.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

to a December 2020 analysis from mortgage-data firm Black Knight, an increase of 35.1% over the prior year. Monthly Economic Update February 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7.4% 6.8%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

been recovered. However, the pace of the recovery is slowing. In July, Pennsylvania added 53,400 jobs from the prior month after adding 227,300 and 217,400 in May and June, respectively. The unemployment rate ticked up from 13.2% of August 9, 2020. Similar to the U.S., small business activity in Pennsylvania has generally deteriorated since July 1. Monthly Economic Update August 2020 Monthly Data Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Unemployment Rate 1 16

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

impact fee schedule will decrease by $5,000 per well (horizontal) compared to CY 2017 levels. For the first six months of 2018, the price has ranged Independent Fiscal Office June 2018 3  The Fee Decrease scenario assumes an average impact fee, if it does not produce more than, on average, 90 Mcf of gas per day in any one month during the calendar year. 6 The PUC contends that a well is subject to the fee unless its production is

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

impact fee schedule will increase by $5,000 per well (horizontal) compared to CY 2016 levels. For the first seven months of 2017, the NYMEX price ranged from $2.63 to $3.93, with an average of $3.22. Futures prices from the impact fee, if it does not produce more than 90 Mcf of gas per day in any one month during the calendar year. The Public Utility Commission contends that a well is subject to the fee unless its production

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

recent forecast was released June 15, which projected $32.5 billion of General Fund revenues. Shortly thereafter, the IFO released monthly projections for the current fiscal year. Through July and August, the revenue forecast is holding up well, and it appears the request of members of the General Assembly, provide various economic, revenue or fiscal analyses. IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Jul.2012 9 2012 GPNP Conference Other Reports and Analysis  Office will be posting regular reports and analysis.  Monthly Economic Update (later this month).  Legislative Requests: Property Tax Proposals (late September).  Interstate comparison of tax structures and tax burdens (later this month

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

will be helpful as you consider the FY 2021-22 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation Fiscal Office 10 March 2021 PA Labor Force Participation Rates Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Month Change January 91.4 February 116.4 March 69.5 April 1.8 May 47.0 June -100.6 July

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

The authors conclude that the movement to a $13.00 minimum wage yielded lower incomes of $74 per month for the average low-wage worker (reflects lower employment and reduced hours). It should be noted that some researchers strongly disagree with care subsidy family co-pay. All prototype households are assumed to have $250 in excess of shelter expenses/month. 7 Based on FY 2019-20 published data in 49 Pa.B. 3160; June 15, 2019. 8 Based on FY 2019-20

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

The average annual price is determined using the arithmetic mean of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) one-month futures contracts. The proposed tax would be effective July 1, 2018 with the first payment due June 15, 2019. The initial year and those prices can be volatile. 10 Other methods that extractors use to sell their gas include the month-ahead market and long-term contracts (hedging) that reduce the impact of short-term fluctuations in price. Sales on the spot market

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

1.0% job gains | +3.3% average wage. Non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: ~+5% last six months.  Motor vehicle purchases continue to lag. PA inflation remains subdued.  For 2018 Q1 CPI-U for U.S Over-Year Growth Rates Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Wages (withholding) Non-motor sales

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT.pdf

registration program (a part of the International Registration Plan, a federal program), the department collects and distributes funds on a monthly basis for other jurisdictions. Participating jurisdictions do the same for Pennsylvania. 2 FY 2020-21 includes $49.3 million in are taken by individuals who purchased a multi-ride ticket option. These options are available in 10-trip or unlimited monthly options at a discounted per trip rate and are used by daily commuters and other high-frequency users. ▪ On-time

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

S. Treasury note will increase from 2.3 percent (2017) to 3.7 percent (2019) while the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill increases from 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the 4 52.5 June 2018 47.3 50.0 62.9 62.5 Note: Dates correspond to the month and year the economic forecasts were made. Table 1.2 Economic Forecast Comparison Annual Growth Rate or Change Economic Outlook | Page 3

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MRU-2020-06.pdf

June revenue collections of $2.67 billion fell short of monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by $545.2 million (-16.9 percent). The shortfall date extensions and is expected next fiscal year. June sales and use tax (SUT) collections exceeded revenues for the same month of the prior year by 0.5 percent, but were below estimate by $55.1 million (-5.4 percent), with

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

Monthly Data Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.1% 7.0% 6.9% 5% 3.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 8.3% 11.1% 12.2% 16.4% Monthly Data Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.1% 5.8% 5.9%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

Monthly Data Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.3% 7.4% 7.3% 0% -0.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 4.7% 8.4% 11.0% 11.9% Monthly Data Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.3% 6.2% 6.0%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

Monthly Data Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.4% 7.3% 7.1% 0% 1.5% 3.3% FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 4.7% 8.4% 11.0% 11.9% Monthly Data Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.2% 6.0% 6.1%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7.4% 6.6% 2% -6.2% -0.7% FHFA House Price Index 11 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.8% 6.9% 6.7%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7.4% 6.8% 2% -0.7% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% n.a. Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.8% 6.9% 6.7%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

level since inception. The IFO will release an updated projection of CY 2020 collections (remitted April 2021) in late January. Monthly Economic Update December 2020 Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 10.4% 8.3% 7.3%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

Monthly Data Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.1% 7.1% 7.3% 2% -1.0% -0.3% FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 5.2% 4.8% 8.3% 10.9% Monthly Data Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.7% 6.7% 6.3%

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

S. Treasury note will increase from 2.3 percent (2017) to 3.7 percent (2019) while the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill increases from 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the 4 52.5 May 2018 47.3 50.0 62.9 62.5 Note: Dates correspond to the month and year the economic forecasts were made. Table 1.2 Economic Forecast Comparison Annual Growth Rate or Change Economic Outlook | Page 3

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

ruling from 2017 that a gas well’s production only needs to fall below 90 Mcf per day in one month of the year to be exempt from the fee. As a result, all wells that previously disputed payment of the impact fee schedule will decrease by $5,000 per well (horizontal) compared to CY 2018 levels. For the first six months of 2019, the price has ranged from $2.64 to $3.63, averaging $2.90. Last year, the average price

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

million in FY 2019-20. The estimate grows to $537 million in FY 2024-25. 4 See Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/down- load.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY19-20- FY 2019-20, the transfer was $40 million and is projected to remain at that level. In recent months, a limited supply of housing has restrained the number of home sales in Pennsylvania, but has placed upward pressure on prices. Home

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Releases

IFO - Releases IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Releases IFO Releases September 2021 Economic Update September 16, 2021 | Revenue & Economic Update The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $25.9 million (1.0%) compared to August 2020. Tags: estimates , monthly , revenue Full Report Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates August 31, 2021 | Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

President signed the “Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011.” That Act extends the payroll tax cut for two months through February 2012. The House and Senate have convened a bi-partisan committee to examine methods to extend the payroll payroll tax cut would reduce contributions (and increase disposable income) by approximately $5.0 billion for Commonwealth residents. A ten-month extension would reduce contributions by $4.1 billion. (See table.) An extension of the payroll tax cut would also impact

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

contract to the applicant, which specifies the maximum amount the applicant is eligible to receive. The contract requires submission of monthly progress reports until video game production is complete. 7 It also requires confirmation that (1) the logo and official acknowledgment Pennsylvania logo is included on all packaging materials 5 A video game production year is defined as a consecutive 12-month period beginning on the start date of production. 6 Overall production includes the combined total for all production years. 7

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

against their Pennsylvania liability in the year of issuance. Any unused credit may be sold or transferred after a 12-month waiting period. 11 Includes a verified current Agricultural Erosion and Sediment Control Plan/Conservation Plan and/or a current Nutri- increase cash flow. Historical data indicate that roughly 55 percent of REAP Tax Credits are sold after a required 12-month waiting period for an average of 85 cents per dollar of credit issued. The remaining 15 cents is retained by

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

employment, the unemployment rates for both men and women would be roughly 9.0%. April 6, 2021 Page 2 Single month state-level data based on gender are not published by BLS, but the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry recently that provides some insight. For January 2021, that brief found that the unemployment rate for women was 9.5% (12-month rolling average), while the unemployment rate for men was 9.2%. The longer-term employment impact of the COVID-19

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

of Economic Analysis. Other Economic Factors That Bolster Spending PA applications for refinancings grew +200% March to May  Reduce monthly payments | take out equity  Latest monthly data show clear deceleration | September ~+80% CARES Act allows early withdrawals from 401k and IRA  Up to $100,000

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

for municipalities and counties. A higher rate is used for school districts because property tax bills were received roughly four months later and COVID-19 would have a greater impact on ability to pay those bills. They are also larger than across the three payment periods because some local units have extended the discount and base periods by one or two months, and others may follow. Finally, the analysis assumes millage rates are held constant and there is no net effect from

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RB-2015-04.pdf

the federal minimum wage is the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey. The CPS is a monthly survey of households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau on behalf of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics It provides data on the labor force, employment levels, unemployment rates and various other demographic and labor force characteristics. The monthly survey includes 60,000 U.S. households and is designed so that state‐speci Ðic observations can be weighted to

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review April to June 2015 Page 2 estimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

income tax payments up +13.0%. Spending - non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. Recent Economic Acceleration June.05.2018 7 PA Consumer Income vs 5.0% 6.0% Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

Do individuals rejoin the labor force, or get by with less? November 18, 2020 6 Revenues Are Up First 4 Months of Fiscal Year November 18, 2020 7 Mitigation Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul to Oct Notes General Fund Protection Program. LWA is Lost Wage Assistance. Growth rates control for revenue shifts. Collections partially based on sales from prior month. Philadelphia values for Jan and Feb represent three-month average growth Dec to Feb. LWA ends Philadelphia Looking Forward Anticipated

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

system-wide increase in cash (10.0 percent) and E-ZPass (2.0 percent) tolls. Data for the first four months of the calendar year reveal that passenger ticket transactions declined by 0.9 percent over the same period from the 0 percent toll increase. Independent Fiscal Office Page 13 The Alternative 3 scenario assumes that trends for the first four months of CY 2013 will be representative of the trend for all of CY 2013. It then reruns the statistical analysis

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

4 10.3 4.9 2.0 Related Factoids About 30%-60% of EIPs spent. Most of that within 3 months. Most unemployment compensation is spent. Per capita credit card debt down 14% in 2021 Q1. Does not account for any be spent or saved PA Payroll Jobs Creation Stagnates June 17, 2021 5 -1,200 -900 -600 -300 0 300 month-to- month change year-over- year change ~50k avg gain -1.1 million stagnation despite ~$47 billion federal transfers normal

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

Do individuals rejoin the labor force, or get by with less? December 9, 2020 6 Revenues Are Up First 5 Months of Fiscal Year December 9, 2020 7 Mitigation Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul to Nov Notes General Fund Protection Program. LWA is Lost Wage Assistance. Growth rates control for revenue shifts. Collections partially based on sales from prior month. Philadelphia values for Jan and Feb represent three-month average growth Dec to Feb. LWA ends Looking Forward Sustained drop

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NGPR-2018Q2.pdf

the top-ten producing states, Louisiana and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for the first five months of 2018 while Alaska was the only state in the top ten to register a decline. Figure 6 displays the 772.9 1,483.3 -9.4% -7.7% -7.6% Note: CY 2018 includes production for the first five months of the year and the corresponding growth rate is based on the same time period in CY 2017. Source: U

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NGPR-2018Q1.pdf

the top-ten producing states, Louisiana and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for the first two months of 2018. Alaska was the only state in the top-ten to register a decline in this time period. Figure 3,772.9 573.7 -9.4% -7.7% -8.7% Note: CY 2018 includes production for the first two months of the year and the corresponding growth rate is based on the same time period in CY 2017. Source: U

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NGPR-2017Q1.pdf

wells only. Data through 2014 were reported on a half-year basis. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Figure 1 displays the number of new horizontal wells spud in each quarter since 2011. After declining to its types. Among the top-ten producing states, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first two months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Five states (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Colorado and Wyoming) registered declines

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NGPR-2016Q4.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data basis, and the half-year values are shown as Q2 and Q4. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Table 7: Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full-Year Count 2016 6,605 6

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NGPR-2016Q3.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data basis, and the half-year values are shown as Q2 and Q4. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Table 7: Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full-Year Count 2016 6,605 6

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NGPR-2016Q2.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those and the half-year val- ues are shown as Q2 and Q4. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Table 7: Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full-Year Count 2016 6,605 6

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NGPR-2016Q1.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those basis, and the half-year values are shown as Q2 and Q4. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Table 7: Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full-Year Count 2016 6,584 n

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NGPR-2015-2H.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the last six months of 2015 and the full calendar year. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

States Including Pennsylvania On December 31, 2019 the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its State Leading Indexes, a six-month forecast of its State Coincident Indexes for November 2019. Forty-one state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, but nine (including Pennsylvania) are projected to decline. This outcome is likely related to the uptick in the Pennsylvania unemployment

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

ment (includes retirees, spouses, children and disabled), the COLA translates into a $1.3 billion increase in income, an average monthly gain of roughly $40 per recipient. COLAs for the three previous years were as follows: 2016 (0.0%), 2017 (0 2018 - National News U.S. Treasury Posts $779 Billion Deficit for FFY 2018 On October 15, the U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement showed an official federal deficit for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2018 of $779 billion. The deficit is $113

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

collections increased by 7.5% from the same time period in the prior year. That pace reflects the strongest 3-month gain since April 2012. A strong labor market and higher discretionary income from federal tax cuts are likely two relevant other global partners. The latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists places the chance of recession in the next 12 months at 18.3%. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 10.4% 8.3% 7.3% 4% -5.7% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 10 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 8.4% 7.9% 6.9%

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

and 2012. $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 28.Jan.2015 8 Monthly Average Gas Price Jan 2009 demand collapses Jan 2015 excess supply weak global demand EIA Mid‐Atlantic Price June 2014  Published IFO and DOR estimates for FY 2014‐15 differed by $224 million ($57 million for the first seven months of the fiscal year and $167 million for the final five months). 28.Jan.2015 16 Estimate Comparison Fiscal Year

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

the fee’s inception, causing a fee schedule reduction and a $52.6 million decrease in revenues. The CY 2021 monthly average price through June is $2.76, a 50.6% increase from the same period in 2019. Bentek Energy projects on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. An alternative to the annual average ETR is the lifetime ETR, which is

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

CY 2019, causing a fee schedule reduction and a $47.4 million decrease in impact fee revenues. The CY 2020 monthly average price through June is $1.83, the lowest January-June average since the impact fee’s inception. Bentek Energy on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. An alternative to the annual average ETR is the lifetime ETR, which is

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IFO ppt.pdf

8.5% in December. • Consumer Confidence up sharply at end of year. – UM Index of Consumer Sentiment up 4th straight month. – Conference Board Consumer Confidence up 5th straight month. Gain from October to December largest since March 1991 (Gulf War jump). • US Automakers have best year since 2008. Strong

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

States, but decreased among those ages 12 to 17. During this period, adults who reported using marijuana in the past month increased from 19.0% to 23.0% for ages 18 to 25 and from 4.8% to 10.2% for addicted to marijuana and that ratio increases to 1 in 6 for users who start before age 18. 1 Past month is also referred to as current use. 2 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Marijuana and Public Health.” (2018). March

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

have more disposable income.  Options: spend, save or pay down debt.  Occurs with delay. IHS Markit assumes 6 months. Sales tax: gain from higher disposable income and spending.  FY 17-18: +$10-$20 million | FY 18-19: +$60- adjusted for extra deposit days. Non-motor sales tax adjusted for tax law changes and miscellaneous transfers. Also uses one month lag. Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 17 IFO Official FY 2017-18 Estimate June 2017 Estimate Revenue Revised Official

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

in which the credit was authorized (June 30). Nonprofits then have until September 30 to expend contributions. (The additional three months allows contributions remit- ted close to the fiscal year end to be expended before the activity period closes.) 13 Applicants averaged roughly 62 percent of anticipated contributions. 13 Due to the nature of the EZP component, there is no three-month extension and the investment must be expended by June 30. 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

temporary help employee). 3 A taxpayer must file for the credit by the 15 th of the fourth month following the end of the firm’s taxable year. For firms subject to tax in more than one state, the amount of and indirect costs related to living kidney donation and found that most financial losses were greater than one month of the donor’s income. 19 In addition, one-third of the living kidney donors surveyed had lost an average of 252

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

legislation that support loan forgiveness programs targeted at keeping recent graduates in the state. The New York program offers 24 months of federal student loan debt relief to recent New York State college graduates. Program applicants must be a legal resident and have been residing in New York for the previous 12 consecutive months. They must have graduated from a New York State high school, earned an undergraduate degree from a New York college

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

Beginning with calendar year 2017 and thereafter, the minimum AWP is $2.99 per gallon. For the 12-month period ending Sep- tember 30, 2018, the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue determined the actual AWP to be $2.04 cents per gallon port, healthcare and social service referrals and healthy foods to an average of over 218,000 participants per month in FY 2017-18. 7 The federal match rate for MA expansion recipients declines according to the following schedule: 95 percent to

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

260.7 Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2013. Starts and sales are seasonally adjusted annual rates. General Fund Revenues ERCA Monthly: Transfer to ERCA of collections or savings from certain DOR enforcement activities. June: Annual transfer to the General Fund. Enhanced to historical ratios would increase revenues. • According to data from the EIA, PA electric sector revenues for the first 9 months of 2012 are down 6% from 2011 levels. • The telecommunications sector has been declining. Data charges are growing, but not

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QRR_2017Q2.pdf

also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s

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QRR_2017Q1.pdf

also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec‐ tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s

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QRR_2016Q4.pdf

context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s

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QRR_2016Q3.pdf

context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Report. GENERAL FUND revenues for the third quarter of 2016 were $206.7 million below estimate. Corporate net income

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QRR_2016Q1.pdf

The first quarter of calendar year 2016 is the third quarter of FY 2015-16. ________________________________________ 2 See the Monthly Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year. Quarterly Revenue Review January to March 2016 Page 2 Table 2 contains detail on actual and projected growth rates

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QRR_2015Q4.pdf

The fourth quarter of calendar year 2015 is the second quarter of FY 2015-16. ________________________________________ 2 See the Monthly Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year. Quarterly Revenue Review October to December 2015 Page 2 Table 2 contains detail on actual and projected growth rates

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QRR_2015Q3.pdf

The third quarter of calendar year 2015 is the first quarter of FY 2015-16. ________________________________________ 2 See the Monthly Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year. Quarterly Revenue Review July to September 2015 Page 2 For the first quarter of FY 2015-16, General Fund

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QRR_2015Q1.pdf

the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review January to March 2015 Page 2 estimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table

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QRR_2014Q4.pdf

the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review October to December 2014 Page 2 other revenues were $97 million above estimate. Additional detail on specific revenue

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QRR_2014Q2.pdf

the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review April to June 2014 Page 2 million and $283 million, respectively. All other revenues were below estimate by

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QRR_2013Q4.pdf

the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review October to December 2013 Page 2 million and $26 million, respectively. All other revenues were below estimate by

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QRR_2013Q3.pdf

the Revenue Trends Report published by the Independent Fiscal Office for more detail on revenue growth rates by month, fiscal year and the most recent three or twelve-month periods. Quarterly Revenue Review July-September 2013 Page 2 Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections fell below projections by

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

income tax payments up +11.7%. Spending - non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. Strong Labor Market = Income Gains June.12.2018 3 PA Consumer 4.0% 5.0% Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

income tax payments up +13.0%. Spending - non-motor sales tax recovers.  Base growth rate: +5.1% last seven months.  Compare to +1.0% for FY 16-17. June.04.2018 7 Recent Economic Acceleration June.04.2018 8 5.0% 6.0% Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

thresholds. The policy threshold requires that fleet vehicles must be driven 6,000 business miles within a six-month period or used 80 percent of available work days within a six-month period (e.g., 60.3 percent of fleet vehicles met the policy threshold in FY 2017-18).  Operating cost per mile

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

Beginning with calendar year 2017 and thereafter, the minimum AWP is $2.99 per gallon. For the 12-month period ending Sep- tember 30, 2018, the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue determined the actual AWP to be $2.04 cents per gallon port, healthcare and social service referrals and healthy foods to an average of over 218,000 participants per month in FY 2017-18. 2017-18 Amount Amount Growth Amount Growth Total Federal Funds $26,875 $28,102 4.6% $27,466

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novak ppt.pdf

to find a method that works indefinitely. • Buy local. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month) Previous New Previous New Previous New Quarterly data: 2011:Q4 2.6 2.6 9.0 9.0 148.7 3.5 7.6 7.8 N.A. N.A. Business Outlook Survey Change in activity over the next 6 months -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing F EDERAL R ESERVE B

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NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf

prior year, while the Pennsylvania average price increased by 64.4%. This growth was largely driven by prices in the month of February, due to nationwide freezing temperatures, most notably in Texas. The average Henry Hub price in February was $5 prices from late 2018 to mid-2020. Since then, both prices increased due to strong energy demand during the winter months, and the Texas freeze in February. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh. Questions regarding

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NGPR-2018Q4.pdf

the top-ten producing states, Louisiana and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for the first eleven months of 2018 while Alaska and Wyoming were the only states in the top ten to register a decline. Figure 6 The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report

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NGPR-2018Q3.pdf

the top-ten producing states, Louisiana and Ohio recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for the first eight months of 2018 while Alaska and Wyoming were the only states in the top ten to register a decline. Figure 6 The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report

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NGPR-2017Q3.pdf

Among the top-ten producing states, Louisiana, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first eight months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Four states (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Colorado) registered declines. Figure The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report

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NGPR-2017Q2.pdf

types. Among the top-ten producing states, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first five months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Four states (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Colorado) registered declines. Figure The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report

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NGPR-2015-1H.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the first six months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus

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NGPR-2015-09.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the first six months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

adjusted number of job openings was 6.7 million in April, while 6.3 million Americans were unemployed that same month. The national unemployment rate for May was 3.8%, its lowest level since April 2000. Due to tight labor market by corporations increased by 35.8% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-06-19 15:09:50 ModDate: 2018-06-

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

projects the real growth rate of the U.S. economy based on various government data releases during the past three months. A preliminary growth rate will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27. Histori- cally The preliminary tax data exclude filers who requested an extension to file (typically upper-income taxpayers). IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: TDorr CreationDate: 2018-07-24 19:05:23 Creator: PScript5.dll Version

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

the current market as leading indicators for building permits and sales of new and existing homes have declined in recent months. U.S. Corporate Profits Record Strong Growth in 2018 Q3 On November 28, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and insurers). It should be emphasized that all figures are preliminary and subject to significant revision. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2018-12-11 20:10:49 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2018-

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this winter were given to Americans who use 45 percent of their monthly income for debt service. The number of mortgages originated with a debt-to-income ratio of 45 percent or greater prices are increasing faster than wages and mortgage interest rates are on the rise. (Full Article) IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: TDorr CreationDate: 2018-04-20 17:19:20 Creator: PScript5.dll Version

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. See 58 Pa.C.S. § 2302(b) for the statutory adjustments and 46 Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

net income tax revenues, and nearly all of that impact should manifest itself in the final payments over the coming months. Pennsylvania Economy The state economy seems to be in a good position, with the latest Philadelphia CPI-U reading running cut. Some forecasting firms believe the response will be immediate, while others believe there will be a six to nine-month lag. The second way the TCJA will impact revenues is through the corporate tax rate cut. This impact is much

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2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

on impact fee assessments and actual collections. This was cross-referenced with unconventional well production data and spud data published monthly by the Department of Environmental Protection. 2. See 58 Pa.C.S. § 2302(b) for the statutory adjustments and 46 Pursuant to 58 Pa.C.S. § 2301, the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near- month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the national benchmark price

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

Standardize due process rights to taxpayers denied tax credits for noncompliance or were subject to recapture within six months of the award date.  Require the brokers to be registered with DOR.  Require taxpayers to file federal Form 6765 with

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Department of Community and Economic Development (De- cember 2018). Overview of the FPTC | Page 7 requires submission of monthly progress reports until the production is complete. It also requires that the end credits for any FPTC production include the Pennsylvania Film

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

Therefore, both the state (FY 2018-19) and local (FY 2017-18) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2018) measure to which they are compared. In general, the state rankings in this analysis

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

Therefore, both the state (FY 2017-18) and local (FY 2016-17) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2017) measure to which they are compared. In general, the state rankings in this analysis

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SR2017-03.pdf

CY) 2014. Therefore, both the state (FY 2014-15) and local (FY 2013-14) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2014) measure to which they are compared. It should be noted that the

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

Under current law, employers may pay less than the federal minimum if a tipped worker earns at least $30 per month in tips or commissions and total compensation yields an hourly wage rate of $7.25 or more. For Pennsylvania, such

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

first week in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses the performance

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

revised to reflect recent trends in personal income tax withholding. Collections for this revenue source underperformed through the first five months of the calendar year, reducing the expected growth rate for the remainder of 2016 and 2017. Highlights of the FY16-

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

shown. The first adjustment is Revenues Through March, which reflects the impact of actual revenues received through the first nine months of the fiscal year, and excludes any impacts related to the COVID-19 virus, payment or processing delays. The second

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

This revenue estimate occurs in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

estimate occurs in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses the performance

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

estimate occurs in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses the performance

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

first week in May of the same fiscal year. The estimate reflects actual collections for the first ten months of the fiscal year. A preliminary estimate for the following fiscal year is also released. The text that follows discusses the performance

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

1 Note: Millions of dollars. Motor License Fund COVID-19 reduces FY 19-20 revenues by ~$105 million  Full-month closure reduces gasoline consumption by ~40%  Diesel largely unaffected Licenses and fees largely unaffected  Expiration dates for March

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

stable at 4% Economic factors  Overseas economies. Interest rates. Stock market volatility.  2019 Q1 profits number end of month  Business investment slowdown (WSJ May 19)? May 20, 2019 19 Summary Increase to IFO Official Estimate of +$866 million

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RB-2019-01.pdf

58 Pa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange ($3.086 for CY 2018). 3. See Snyder Brothers, Inc. v. Pennsylvania Public

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RB-2016-02.pdf

Share Assessment N/A N/A The CFA distributes the local share assessment for Fayette County, Luzerne County, Monroe County, Mont‐ gomery County and Washington County. As noted in the previous section, the portion attributable to economic development was unable to

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PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

GPI, multiplied by the 3.26 percent increase on the employee's anniversary/longevity date. Assumes an average of six months at the higher rate. 5/ Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the relevant fiscal year, plus the impact of the July 2020

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

recent years, ~ 35-40% shift from 30 to 15-20 yr mortgage. o Shock from housing bust? o May increase monthly payment by $200-$400. o Temporary hit to economy. But, longer-term benefit.  Impact on potential (Gen Y) and

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

10.Feb.2017 17 Non-Motor SUT Growth Note: Adjusted SUT controls for expanded tax base and transfers. Uses one month lag to coincide with withholding and economic activity. Withholding growth rates are adjusted for extra deposit days during the quarter

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

data on corporate profits suggest weakness. • Wage/salary withholding collections have underperformed. • Sales tax collections have been strong in recent months. • The jobs forecast is important to the revenue estimate. Changes Since January Report 8.Jun.2016 9 2013 2014 2015

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

n.a. Wages and Salaries 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% n.a. Avg Monthly Job Gains (000s) 141.7 220.7 218.3 217.0 189.3 233.3 180.3 US CPI-U

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Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

a. Wages and Salaries (YOY) 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.9% n.a. Avg Monthly Job Gains (000s) 177.3189.7141.7220.7218.3217.0189.7 US CPI-U (YOY) 2.6% 1.9% 2

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

4.0% 5.0% Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. 3.0% 2.4% 3

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

FY 2016-17 Long-Term Living total spending includes $113 million intergovernmental transfer. Source: April 2017 Department of Human Services monthly report and Executive Budget, various years. May 24, 2017 22 Long-Term Imbalance Funding Sources for Senior Programs Avg. Ann

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf

met or exceeded goals in measurement year (MY) 2019 ▪ ED utilization decreased from 74.0 visits per 1,000 member months (MY 2015) to 66.1 (MY 2019) Counties not required to track and report outcomes related to state funds received

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf

pollution ▪ Provide up-front funds for farmers that may lack access to capital ▪ Benefits small farmers that must wait 12 months to sell credit Review policy of awarding credits after BMP is already in place April 26, 2021 7 Entertainment Economic

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

primary funding source for 911 in Pennsylvania is a uniform $1.65 surcharge levied on landline and wireless monthly phone bills, authorized by Act 12 of 2015 and reauthorized under Act 17 of 2019. Prior to Act 12 of 2015, the

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

served for short sentences to state prison more predictable. For inmates with sentences to state prison of 24 months or less, this proposal would institute a presumptive release to parole at the minimum sentence. These inmates would be released to state

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PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf

plans. Used by other states too. Establish the process used to interact with agencies.  Multiple agency meetings over several months.  Iteration necessary to refine metrics and compile allocations. Meet the January 2019 deadline. January 22, 2019 5 Moving Forward

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

the Firefighters’ Memorial appropriation) and 911 Emergency Telecommunication Activity ($1,000 from the GGO appropriation). PEMA Metric Highlights $1.65/month/line 911 fee ranks 7 th in U.S. ($19.80 annual fee)  $316m collected CY 2018 | per capita

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

2018) ▪ PA lower than all border states except WV | U.S. rate is 11.4 ▪ 80% receive treatment within one month of diagnosis (up from 70%) Opioid overdose rates decline, but remain far above U.S. avg ▪ DOH data: 2017 (38

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

bump from advance/expanded child tax credit ▪ August: 1.3 million payments | 2.2 million children | $554 million ▪ September first month with only CTC payments, no federal UC Higher inflation unlikely to be transitory ▪ Delayed response in housing and rental markets

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

9 Note: Millions of dollars. Motor License Fund COVID-19 reduces FY 19-20 revenues by ~$105 million  Full-month closure reduces gasoline consumption by ~40%  Diesel more moderately affected Licenses and fees largely unaffected  Expiration dates for

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NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf

Furthermore, total production in September declined by 1.3 percent from September 2019, the first year-over-year decline in monthly production since February 2017. There were 111 new horizontal wells spud in the third quarter of 2020. This figure represents

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NGPR-2019Q4.pdf

The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report

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NGPR-2019Q3.pdf

The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report

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NGPR-2019Q2.pdf

The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report

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NGPR-2019Q1.pdf

The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report

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NGPR-2017Q4.pdf

The IFO publishes this report on a quarterly basis each May, August, November and February for the preceding quarter using monthly production data submitted to DEP by natural gas extrac- tors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

58 Pa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange ($3.108 for CY 2017). Includes the impact of the annual adjustment for

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

58 Pa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the price used is the annual average of the settled prices for near-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange. 3. The price used for this calculation is a weighted average of spot

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

Pa.C.S. §§ 2301 et seq., the average annual price is the annual average of the settled prices for near‐ month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The fee schedule is adjusted downward if the price of gas falls between

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

income for housing. Older renters and older homeowners still making mortgage payments reported paying between $830 and $1,300 on monthly housing costs. This is considerably more than those 65+ who paid off their mortgage; only paying $458 in hous- ing

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

On May 17, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state jobs figures for April. For the first four months of the calendar year, the data show that payroll jobs in the retail trade sector contracted at an annualized rate

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

Those refunds typically provide a boost to consumer spending and sales tax revenues in the spring. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2019-03-18 20:30:14 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2019-

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

days as compared to the prior year. Spending in bars and restaurants also realized a decline compared to the prior month. However, the article reports that online holiday sales increased by 14% over the prior year. U.S. Demographic Trends May

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

was as follows: 5.2% (Q1), 5.8% (Q2), 17.2% (Q3) and 14.9% (Q4). IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2019-04-22 18:33:56 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2019-

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

Some analysts believe income was shifted out of the year in anticipation of potential tax cuts. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: TDorr CreationDate: 2018-05-16 16:46:55 Creator: PScript5.dll Version

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

is a weighted annual average at major Pennsylvania hubs. NYMEX price is the annual average price of natural gas near-month settlements on the New York Mercantile Exchange, upon which the Impact Fee schedule is based. Impact Fee collections in millions

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

25.Jan.2017 14 Non-Motor SUT Growth Note: Adjusted SUT controls for expanded tax base and transfers. Uses one month lag to coincide with withholding and economic activity. Withholding growth rates are adjusted for extra deposit days during the quarter

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mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf

to be released in early May. “After adjusting for statutory changes, revenues have displayed no growth for the first seven months of the current fiscal year.” Knittel said. “For next year, revenues are projected to follow a low-growth pattern. Revenue

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Letter_to_JSGC.pdf

This decision was made two days prior to publication, even though the IFO had submitted a draft copy nearly a month earlier, and answered a dozen questions from the JSGC director two weeks prior to publication.  Upon publication, the IFO

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

Over-Year Growth Rates Note: Sales tax growth rate controls for tax law changes and transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. 0.7% 16 02.May

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

House Appropriations Committee. The tables are as follows:  The first table shows job losses in the Commonwealth for three months: April, August and December 2020. The latest data for December show a year-over-year contraction of 472,000 jobs

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

instead of 2013 to avoid federal tax increases. Depending on the performance of the Pennsylvania economy in the first six months of 2014, the revisions could prove to be conservative. However, marked improvement in jobs and wages, increased business investment and

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

5% 5.0% 4.8% Job Gains (000s, ann rate) 65.0 56.7 45.4 49.5 37.2 Monthly Data May June July Aug Sept Zillow PA Home Sales 2.1% -7.7% 2.1% -3.5% --- Zillow PA

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

under such conditions. The latest readings of the consumer confidence index reveal that confidence has dropped for the latest two months.  International economic growth appears to be decelerating across all major U.S. trading partners: the European Union, Canada, Mexico

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

costs accelerate) Policymakers should consider recession scenarios  Rainy Day Fund = $340 million  Recommended: 5% ($1.8b) or 2 months operating ($6.0b) February 28, 2020 22 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

Consumer Debt 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 0.3% Note: % Renters Deferring/Not Paying reflects payment status from prior month. Value for 2020.1 is first survey for week that begins April 23 (week 1). Value for 2020.2 is

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

full fiscal year will be needed to evaluate the impact of the rate change. If data for the first eight months of the fiscal year are representative, then it would be difficult for other revenue sources to increase enough to offset

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

in PA consumer debt  Mortgages and auto loans | delinquency rates remain very low  2019 Q4 data released next month PA labor market  Can it continue to expand at moderate pace?  Does tight labor market/demographics affect business

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Links

Bureau of Labor Statistics • Census Bureau • Weekly Jobless Claims • Employment Situation • Advance Retail Sales • Existing Home Sales • GDP and Profits • Monthly Personal Income • New Residential Sales • Case-Shiller Home Prices • Consumer Confidence PA Economic Indicators • Labor Force and Employment • Quarterly Personal

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