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Inflation's Impact on the Pennsylvania Economy

On June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget.

Tags: economy, inflation, pennsylvania

Property Tax Burden by County

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 

09/06/2022

Student Loan Debt Forgiveness

The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.

08/31/2022

pennsylvania's Gasoline Tax

The IFO published a research brief that examines the pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed pennsylvania driver is $285.

06/13/2022

Inflation's Impact on the pennsylvania Economy

On June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget.

06/07/2022

Department of Human Services - Part 3

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3).  Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022.   The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10.   

05/04/2022

Department of Education

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education. Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16. The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022. The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022. 

04/27/2022

Department of Aging

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging. Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1. 

04/26/2022

Assumptions Used by RGGI Model

Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony on the model assumptions used by a consultant to estimate the impact on pennsylvania from joining RGGI. This written testimony was updated on November 4, 2022, to include clarifications for the third and sixth bullets on page 1.

03/28/2022

pennsylvania Electricity Update

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylania electricity market. 

03/14/2022

PBB Overview Presentation for PDE

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the pennsylvania Department of Education is posted on the website.

03/09/2022

Economic and Budget Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30.

03/04/2022

COVID-19 IMPACT ON pennsylvania DEATHS

This research updates a prior release (September 2021) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. The analysis finds 19,800 excess deaths in 2020 and estimates 18,900 excess deaths for 2021. 

02/11/2022

PBB Overview Presentation for PDE and Agriculture

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the pennsylvania Department of Education and the Department of Agriculture is posted on the website.

01/26/2022

PBB Overview Presentation for DLI and PHMC

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Labor and Industry and the pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission is posted on the website.

01/24/2022

Department of Agriculture

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture. Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022.   The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21.  

01/20/2022

pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commision. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.  

01/20/2022

Department of Labor and Industry

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Labor and Industry. Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.  

01/20/2022

pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

11/29/2021

PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage Growth

Using the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds historic wage gains for the U.S. and pennsylvania. The brief notes that employee compensation comprises 56% of final sales and firms will likely push most labor costs forward to final consumers, thereby putting upward pressure on prices and inflation.  

11/03/2021

Inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension Benefits

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of inflation on the real earnings of pennsylvania workers and the real value of public pension benefits.

10/19/2021

COVID-19 Impact on pennsylvania Deaths

This research brief uses preliminary data for 2020 and 2021 (through September) to compute excess deaths above pre-COVID historical trends in the Commonwealth for those two years. The analysis finds 20,700 excess deaths in 2020 and projects 6,700 excess deaths for 2021.

09/30/2021

Public Pension Status and Outlook

The IFO released a research brief that provides a status update and outlook for public pension systems in pennsylvania. Data for state and local systems show that while the fiscal health of public pension systems has improved in recent years, the overall unfunded liability remains significant.

09/28/2021

UGSOA Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the United Government Security Officers of America (UGSOA).

09/27/2021

Department of Military and Veterans Affairs

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs.

09/24/2021

Department of Human Services - Part 2

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 2).

09/24/2021

Department of Transportation

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Transportation.

09/24/2021

pennsylvania State Police

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and pennsylvania State Police. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the pennsylvania State Police.

09/24/2021

pennsylvania Electricity Update

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylania electricity market. 

09/09/2021

Property Tax Burden by County

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 

08/25/2021

Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

05/10/2021

PBB Overview Presentation for PSP and DMVA

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the pennsylvania State Police and the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs is posted on the website.

04/28/2021

Senate Budget Hearing Request

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment based on gender, net domestic migration for pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for pennsylvania and border states.

04/09/2021

Economic and Budget Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/19/2021

PPP Loans to pennsylvania Businesses

This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications.

12/08/2020

UGSOA Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the United Government Security Officers of America (UGSOA).

11/12/2020

pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

10/15/2020

Impact of the TCJA on pennsylvania Taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion.  This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.  

10/13/2020

pennsylvania Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends Presentation

Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to the Center for Energy Policy and Management at Washington & Jefferson College regarding regional natural gas trends and how they are affecting the state's Impact Fee.

07/14/2020

PSEA Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the pennsylvania State  Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Unit.

07/02/2020

PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association (PSCOA).

06/26/2020

SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Unit Wage Contract Analysis

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 668 Unemployment Compensation (UC) Referees.

05/07/2020

Property Tax by County and Income

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey to provide pennsylvania property tax data for 2018 by county, household income and homeowner age.

04/07/2020

Property Tax Update Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the pennsylvania School Boards Association on property tax data recently published by the IFO.

03/13/2020

Economic and Budget Update Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation at a session of the pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/28/2020

CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the Correctional Vocational Education Association (CIVEA).

02/27/2020

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25.

02/06/2020

PBB Overview Presentation for PEMA, DOS and DEP

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency, Department of State and Department of Environmental Protection.

01/22/2020

Department of Human Services - Part 1

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-Based Budget Board.

01/21/2020

Department of Community and Economic Development

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Community and Economic Development.

01/21/2020

Department of Health

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Health.

01/20/2020

pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency.

01/16/2020

Department of State

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State.

01/16/2020

Department of Environmental Protection

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Environmental Protection.

01/16/2020

Presentation to Grow PA Coalition

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Grow PA Coalition on the pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Outlook.

12/02/2019

ALES Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the Association of Liquor Enforcement Officers (ALES).

11/06/2019

OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU).

11/06/2019

PDA Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the pennsylvania Doctors Alliance (PDA).

11/06/2019

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

Announcement: The IFO will present its Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The Tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on pennsylvania's tax and business climate.

11/06/2019

SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare.

11/06/2019

PLEA Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the pennsylvania Liquor Enforcement Association (PLEA).

10/11/2019

FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP).

10/11/2019

ISSU Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the Independent State Stores Union (ISSU).

09/13/2019

UFCW Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and UFCW.

08/13/2019

SEIU Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and SEIU.

08/13/2019

AFSCME Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and AFSCME.

08/13/2019

Migration Data by Age Group and Educational Attainment

In response to a legislative request, the IFO has posted a letter that provides data on educational attainment levels by age group for individuals migrating to and from pennsylvania.

07/02/2019

Budget and Economic Update

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants regarding an update on pennsylvania's budget and economic landscape.  

06/11/2019

Economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and pennsylvania.

05/16/2019

PA Economy League Presentation

In partnership with the pennsylvania Economy League, Director Matthew Knittel and Deputy Director Brenda Warburton will make multiple presentations on raising the state minimum wage to $12.00 per hour. The presentation examines the proposed minimum wage’s impact on employment, worker incomes, prices and state spending.

05/01/2019

Senate Majority Policy Committee Public Workshop Migration Data Request

In response to a legislative request, the IFO provided data to the Senate Majority Policy Committee for use in their Public Workshop on “Student Flight (Brain Drain) from pennsylvania” on April 30, 2019.  The brief document details historical population data for the Commonwealth, focusing primarily on young adults migrating to and from pennsylvania.

04/29/2019

Revenue and Economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on April 17, 2019 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and pennsylvania.

04/17/2019

SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.  

03/18/2019

Special Fund Receipts and Disbursements and Ambulatory Surgical Center Assessment

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked for an update to a February 12, 2018 report on the receipts and disbursements of certain special funds and information on how pennsylvania compares to other states with regard to the use of special funds. Another committee member asked about the proposed ambulatory surgical center assessment for the Department of Human Services (DHS).

03/13/2019

Income and Property Tax Burden for Retirees

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States (December 2018). The letter also compares pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states.

03/06/2019

Economic & Budget Outlook Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

03/01/2019

PA Fiscal Update and Outlook

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the County Commissioners Association of pennsylvania that reviews highlights from the IFO's recent Economic and Budget Outlook.

11/19/2018

Revenue and Economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on October 9, 2018 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and pennsylvania.  

10/09/2018

Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update- August 2018

In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy.

08/24/2018

Impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook

This report examines 2017 impact fee collections and natural gas production in pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2018.

06/28/2018

Budget and Economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

06/12/2018

Budget And Economic Update with Property Tax Discussion

Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO). Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman also discussed an updated school district property tax forecast and recent proposed legislation. 

06/05/2018

Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction

The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the pennsylvania CNIT rate. 

04/11/2018

pennsylvania Natural Gas Royalties

The IFO responds to a request regarding natural gas royalty payments in pennsylvania. Based on draft statutory language provided by the Administration regarding the deductibility of the proposed severance tax from royalty payments, footnote 7 was added to the original letter. (March 23, 2018)

03/23/2018

Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder - a Multi-Jurisdiction Comparison

The Independent Fiscal Office responded to a question raised at the office's recent budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked how pennsylvania compares to other states regarding the share of owner-occupied households in which the homeowner is age 60 or over. The response includes multi-jurisdiction comparisons for householders who are age 60 or over, age 65 or over and age 75 or over. 

03/12/2018

IFO Update on Selected Fiscal Topics and pennsylvania Demographics

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017. 

03/09/2018

pennsylvania Fiscal Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a fiscal update for the state at a conference hosted by the Pittsburgh Chamber of Commerce. 

02/28/2018

Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release

01/29/2018

Aging and the pennsylvania Economy

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the Task Force on Private Sector Retirement Security on the implications of aging for the pennsylvania economy.

01/25/2018

2017 Impact Fee Estimate - January 2018

This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2017 Impact Fee collections in pennsylvania. Revised for technical factor on 2/22/2018.

01/19/2018

School District Property Tax Forecast

This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property.  Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23.

01/18/2018

pennsylvania Fiscal Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) to provide background on the IFO and an update on pennsylvania’s short- and long-term budget outlook. 

12/13/2017

County Homestead Detail

As an extension of its recent research relating to property taxes, the IFO has released additional data regarding homestead property. Estimates for the numbers and assessed values of homestead properties by county are based, in large part, on the results of a survey of county assessment offices. The County Commissioners Association of pennsylvania provided valuable assistance by coordinating the survey. Data for Philadelphia has been adjusted based on new information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue.

12/06/2017

pennsylvania Fiscal Outlook Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel addressed the Society of Municipal Analysts to provide an update on pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook, demographics and current budget status. 

10/19/2017

PDA Wage Contract Analysis

Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the pennsylvania Doctors Alliance (PDA).

10/02/2017

Child Care and Early Education Funding in pennsylvania

The report provides an overview of the economic impacts of state spending on subsidized child care and no-cost pre-kindergarten programs in pennsylvania.

09/06/2017

pennsylvania's Fiscal and Demographic Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan gave a presentation to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce and Industry addressing pennsylvania’s long-term fiscal outlook, demographics and the current revenue forecast. 

07/14/2017

Like-Kind Exchange Analysis

The IFO responds to a request regarding the economic benefit and tax revenue impact from eliminating pennsylvania personal income tax on like-kind exchanges.

07/10/2017

PLEA Wage Contract Analysis

Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the pennsylvania Liquor Enforcement Association (PLEA).

07/05/2017

Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook

This research brief examines 2016 impact fee collections and natural gas production in pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2017. 

07/04/2017

Savings and Costs of a $12/hour Minimum Wage on DHS-administered Programs

In response to a legislative request, the IFO reviewed the Department of Human Services' projections for the state savings and costs that could occur if pennsylvania's minimum wage were to be increased to $12 per hour. 

06/30/2017

Actuarial Impact of Act 5 - School District Pension Contributions

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the pennsylvania School Boards Association (PSBA) regarding the impact of recently enacted pension legislation (Act 5 of 2017) on school district pension contributions.

06/28/2017

Budget and Economic Update

Director Matt Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA). 

06/07/2017

Implications of Aging for the PA Economy

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation on May 24th to the PA Council on Aging regarding the implications of an aging population for pennsylvania’s economy. An appendix slide appears at the end of the PowerPoint to include certain data requested during the presentation.

05/24/2017

An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform

Throughout May, Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan will make five presentations on the potential implications of school district property tax reform. The events are sponsored by the pennsylvania Economy League and will take place at the various locations listed below. Click the following links for additional details: READING                   Thursday May 4th 7:30-9:00am WILLIAMSPORT       Friday May 5th 12:00-1:30pm YORK                         Thursday May 11th 12:00-1:30pm WILKES-BARRE       Friday May 12th 12:00-1:30pm LEHIGH VALLEY      Friday May 19th 12:00-1:30pm

05/04/2017

Horse Racing Analysis

Act 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to JSGC (March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017)

03/13/2017

ISSU & PSSU Wage Contracts Analysis

Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the following unions: Independent State Stores Union (ISSU) pennsylvania Social Services Union (PSSU), Hearing Officers

03/08/2017

Economic Forecast Summit Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Fifth Annual Economic Forecast Summit sponsored by the pennsylvania Chamber Educational Foundation and the pennsylvania Bankers Association. 

02/28/2017

pennsylvania Gaming Trends

This research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16.

02/13/2017

Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

02/10/2017

School District Property Tax Elimination

Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the pennsylvania School Boards Association (PSBA) regarding the current proposal and forecasts for school district property taxes in pennsylvania. *Updated February 13, 2017

01/19/2017

Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements

Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of pennsylvania and the following six unions: Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA) Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU), Healthcare pennsylvania PA State Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare pennsylvania United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW)

01/12/2017

Updated School District Property Tax Forecast

Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast.

01/09/2017

2016 Impact Fee Estimate - January 2017

This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2016 Impact Fee collections in pennsylvania.

01/02/2017

Using Performance Measures in the State Budget

Discusses performance-based budgeting and how it could be integrated into pennsylvania's budget process. Highlights how other states are effectively using performance measures in their budget systems. Includes a prototype report which could be used in agency budget hearings and provides a method for quick integration.

09/19/2016

Impact Fee Update and 2016 Outlook

This research brief examines 2015 impact fee collections and natural gas production in pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2016. 

07/14/2016

A Look Forward: pennsylvania’s Economic and Revenue Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar regarding pennsylvania's economic and revenue outlook.

05/13/2016

The Impact of Demographics on General Fund Revenues and Expenditures

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the 2016 pennsylvania Data User Conference regarding the impact of demographics on General Fund revenues and expenditures.

05/12/2016

pennsylvania Public Pensions: Background on the Unfunded Liabilities

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Rotary Club of Harrisburg regarding the unfunded liabilities in pennsylvania's public pension systems. (4/11/2016)

04/11/2016

Demographic and Economic Trends for pennsylvania's Older Residents

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the House Aging and Older Adult Services Committee, which provided demographic and economic trends for pennsylvania’s older residents.

03/23/2016

The Implications of an Aging Populace for the State Budget

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the budgetary implications of an aging populace at a conference sponsored by the pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center.

03/03/2016

Impact Fee Update - February 2016

This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2015 Impact Fee collections in pennsylvania

02/29/2016

Raising the Minimum Wage in pennsylvania

This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of the proposal to 1) raise the pennsylvania state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and 2) automatically adjust future minimum wage levels to offset inflation.

11/30/2015

Impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook

This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

06/25/2015

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

The report examines how pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to make comparisons.

03/30/2015

pennsylvania Gaming Trends

This research brief gives a historical overview of gaming trends and revenues in pennsylvania. This includes the role of gaming in the state economy as well as comparisons to other states. 

02/28/2015

State Economic Comparison

This research brief uses Real GDP, Personal Income and Payroll Employment to compare economic performance in pennsylvania to four adjacent states and the U.S. over the past decade.

09/30/2014

Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison

This report compares pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections)

03/17/2014

pennsylvania Lottery: Historical Data and Interstate Comparisons

Demographic projections suggest that demand for programs and services funded by lottery revenues will grow at a rate that exceeds the expansion of the pennsylvania economy. Therefore, an important issue for policymakers is whether lottery revenues can maintain recent growth rates so they will be sufficient to meet those demands. This report provides data to assist policymakers in those deliberations.

01/30/2014

Projections of school property taxes paid by pennsylvania homesteads

Letter containing projections of the school property taxes paid by pennsylvania homesteads (September 2013). 

09/16/2013

Uncapping the Film Production Tax Credit: A Fiscal and Economic Analysis

This report presents the results of an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on the fiscal and economic impacts of eliminating the cap on pennsylvania’s film production tax credit (FPTC). The report also considers stand-alone tax credits for post-production and digital interactive media services.

05/31/2013

pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 through CY 2024

Estimates toll revenues collected by the pennsylvania Turnpike Commission (PTC) through calendar year 2024. The scope of this analysis is limited to forecasting toll revenues; it does not address other revenues remitted to the PTC nor does it address the general fiscal condition of the PTC.

05/28/2013

An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in pennsylvania

Estimates the fiscal and economic impact of expanding Medicaid (Medical Assistance) under the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). The scope of the analysis is limited to the impact of Medicaid expansion; it does not address the costs, savings or economic effects of the ACA generally.

04/22/2013

Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 30, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Act 20 of 2019 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to “evaluate the economic impact to the Com- monwealth, its Other Jurisdictions ..................................................................................................... 10 Other Single-Use Plastics Regulations ............................................................................................. 11 Section 3: Consumers ............................................................................................................. 13 National Retail Bag Trends ............................................................................................................. 13 Pennsylvania Retail Bag Demand .................................................................................................... 13 Impact of Policy Options on Pennsylvania Retail Bag Demand .......................................................... 17 Bag Capacity and Reuse Rates ....................................................................................................... 20 Retail Bag

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

SPECIAL REPORT: Funding and Reforming Public Employee Retirement Systems Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Harrisburg, Pennsylvania January 2013 PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION Gubernatorial AppointeesLegislative Appointees Mr. Anthony W. SalomoneChairmanRetired Executive Director of the Public Employee Retirement

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based 2 - This page intentionally left blank. - Agency Overview | Page 3 Department of Education Overview Mission Statement The mission of the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) is to ensure that every learner has access to a world-class education system that academically

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office (August 2019) or IHS Markit (October

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

A Report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Concerning Restrictive Investment Mandates and their Potential Impact upon the Public School Employees’ Retirement System and the State Employees’ Retirement System S P E C I A L R E P O R T: DIVESTMENT AND PENNSYLVANIA’S PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT SYSTEMS Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission S P E C I A L R

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

or some combination of the two. In general, most public sector pension plans are DB plans, and the plans for Pennsylvania public school and state employees are also of that variety. The text that follows provides a brief description of plan separate, individual accounts that are usually portable and can move from one employer to the next. Public Pension Plans in Pennsylvania In Pennsylvania, the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and the State Employ- ees’ Retirement System (SERS) (Systems) administer governmental

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania State Police. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently, nineteen states (includes Pennsylvania) offer one or more incentives to video game production companies. Twelve states offer tax credits and the remaining offer grants or a rebate. Pennsylvania is one of only a few states that offer a video game incentive that is separate from its program for

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information selected performance metrics on an annual basis. Those metrics may or may not be reviewed by policymakers. For Pennsylvania, the act requires the IFO to submit plans to the PBB Board for review and approval. The PBB Board reviews plans at

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently four states (including Pennsylvania) offer a tax credit for live musical performances. Credit amounts vary by state, but Pennsylvania’s tiered program offers the most generous credit percentages. Annual program caps also vary, with Pennsylvania ranking third highest. Due

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Independent Fiscal Office

income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. ... (Full Report) August 2022 Monthly Economic

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 15, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 8, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, various other Census products and data sup- plied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Other data sources are noted in the relevant sections of this report. The office would like to thank the

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Issues Associated with Extending Commonwealth-Subsidized Healthcare Coverage to the Surviving Spouses of Certain Retired Commonwealth Employees A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 161 Adopted in the Session of 2005 Issues Associated with Extending Commonwealth-Subsidized Healthcare

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. For 2018, 32 states used an FPTC to incentivize productions. Currently, Pennsylvania offers $65 million in annual credits, which ranks ninth highest across all states. There is significant competition for film and television productions Film Production Tax Credit Studies Across States ............................................................................. 15 Section 4: Economic Impact and Metrics ............................................................................... 17 Cost Profile for Pennsylvania Productions ........................................................................................ 17 Direct Spending in Pennsylvania due to the FPTC ............................................................................ 18 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 20 Sensitivity of Results ...................................................................................................................... 22 Section 5: Tax Credit

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

was intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 January 4, 2013 To: The Honorable David G. Argall and The Honorable Peter Daley This report presents the results from an expansion of the existing exemption enacted in October 2009 for helicopters, helicopter parts and installation. The analysis describes Pennsylvania’s tax treatment of aircraft purchases, parts and MRO services and compares the treatment of the aircraft industry in Pennsylvania to other

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 23, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released in to less manipulation by firms. Supporters also note that the filing method will “level the playing field” because Pennsylvania-only firms cannot shift profits to other states. Opponents assert that it will subject profits to tax that have little or no

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based of highway miles improved or restored declined by 1,624 (-28.6 percent) from the prior year. ▪ Highway fatalities on Pennsylvania roads reached a record low 1,059 deaths in 2019. The depart- ment implements safety projects that improve overall safety

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information selected performance metrics on an annual basis. Those metrics may or may not be reviewed by policymakers. For Pennsylvania, the act requires the IFO to submit plans to the PBB Board for review and approval. The PBB Board reviews plans at

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

out all of said lines and inserting Amending Titles 24 (Education), 51 (Military Affairs) and 71 (State Government) of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes, extensively revising pension provisions as follows: In Title 24: for retirement for school employees, in the areas of single life annuity," "superannuation or normal retirement age," "valuation interest" and "vestee" in section 8102 of Title 24 of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes are amended and the section is amended by adding definitions to read: § 8102. Definitions. The following words and

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based are classified into six general activities. Highlights of recent agency activities include: ▪ Provide resources and assistance to approximately 800,000 Pennsylvania veterans and their families, and provide quality care for aging and disabled veterans. ▪ Provide safe and efficient operation of six

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

Lill, Budget Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 15, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from IHS Markit, Wells Fargo and PNC. Demographic projections

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

eligible contributions. Organizations are generally allowed to retain 5% to 10% of contributions to offset administrative or other costs and Pennsylvania has the highest allow- ance at 20%. This analysis examined available data and other issues that impact the effectiveness of from public to private school ($350 per student on average) due to strong hold harmless provisions. ▪ Compared to other states, Pennsylvania has the highest allowance for administrative and other costs. This reduces the number of scholarships available to students. ▪ The top

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 23, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and local taxes are necessary to fund the many services provided by governments such as education, law enforcement, healthcare these adjustments increase personal income by 0.4 percent for the U.S. and 0.3 percent for Pennsylvania. Despite the fact that a modified income measure is used, the term personal income is used throughout this analysis. For tabulations of

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 29, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and local taxes are necessary to fund the many services provided by governments such as education, law enforcement, healthcare these adjustments increase personal income by 0.5 percent for the U.S. and 0.2 percent for Pennsylvania. Despite the fact that a modified income measure is used, the term personal income is used throughout this analysis. For tabulations of

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State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and local taxes are necessary to fund the many services provided by governments such as education, law Overall, these adjustments increase personal income by 0.1% for the U.S. and decrease personal income 0.4% for Pennsylvania. Despite the fact that a modified income measure is used, the term personal income is used throughout this analysis. For

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

January 2012 The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-2017 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Forward Act 120 of 2010 establishes the Independent Fiscal Office. Section 4104 of the Act specifies that the Office shall policy recommendations. The data and projections used by this report come from various sources. Economic projections for the US and Pennsylvania are from the January 2012 forecast by Global Insight, Inc. Demographic projections are from the Penn State Data Center based

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Public Pension Policy and Funding Considerations Associated with the Implementation of a Statewide Volunteer Firefighter Retirement System In Pennsylvania A report to the House of Representatives of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 452 Adopted

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SR2017-03.pdf

income. Overall, these adjustments decrease personal income by -0.1 percent for the U.S. and -1.1 percent for Pennsylvania. Despite the fact that a modified income measure is used, the term personal income is used throughout this analysis. For income (e.g., interest, dividends and capital gains), pensions, IRA withdrawals and transfer income (e.g., Social Security, unemployment compensation). Pennsylvania ranked 19 th for PIT, and the ratio was higher than both the U.S. average (2.21 percent) and

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TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf

S. Energy Information Administration show that 11 of the 16 waste coal facilities in operation that year were located in Pennsylvania. Most states receive federal Abandoned Mine Land (AML) grants that fund environmental cleanup projects on lands affected by legacy coal mining activities. In federal fiscal year 2021, Pennsylvania received $27.4 million in AML grants, the second largest share, behind Wyo- ming. The IFO welcomes all questions and

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

due to the lower tax rate because corporations have less incentive to use tax planning techniques to reduce Pennsylvania corporate tax liability if tax rates are reduced. In addition, when fully phased in, the 40 percent reduction in the tax rate to less manipulation by taxpayers. Supporters also note that the filing method will “level the playing field” because Pennsylvania-only firms cannot shift profits to other states. Opponents believe it will subject profits to tax that have little or no economic

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 25, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based 3 Department of Human Services Overview Mission Statement The mission of the Department of Human Services (DHS) is to assist Pennsylvanians in achieving safe, healthy, and productive lives while being an accountable steward of commonwealth resources. Services Provided For Part 2

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information the Department of Criminal Justice, which includes the combined oper- ations of the Department of Corrections and the Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole. All perfor- mance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each

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2002_drop_report.pdf

Authorization and Guidelines for Implementation of DROPs by Local Governments in Pennsylvania S P E C I A L R E P O R T: DEFERRED RETIREMENT OPTION PLANS (DROPS) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission S P E C I A L R E P O R T: DEFERRED RETIREMENT OPTION

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Pennsylvania is one of two states in the Chesapeake Bay watershed to offer a tax credit to agricultural operations that implement Overview ....................................................................................... 5 Goals and Purpose .......................................................................................................................... 6 Administration ................................................................................................................................. 6 Historical Data ................................................................................................................................ 7 Section 3: Background and Government Policies ................................................................... 13 Agriculture in Pennsylvania ............................................................................................................ 13 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement .......................................................................................... 15 State and Federal Programs ........................................................................................................... 17 Section 5: National and State Studies .................................................................................... 21 Key Findings

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based and Methodology | Page 2 - This page intentionally left blank. - Agency Overview | Page 3 Department of Agriculture Overview Mission Statement The Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture exists to ensure a vibrant economy, a successful future for Pennsylvania agriculture, and to safeguard the public

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Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 5, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Bureau. Various other Census products, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and data from the Pennsylvania Department of Health were also used. Other data sources are noted in the relevant sections of this report. Questions and

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 15, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Introduction and Methodology ................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 1 Demographic Trends by Age Group .......................................................................................... 3 Pennsylvania Population Distribution................................................................................................. 5 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 6 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 7 Birth Trends .................................................................................................................................... 8 Decedent Trends ............................................................................................................................. 9 Domestic Migration Trends

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based improper and fraudulent benefit payments. The department recovered over $46 million in 2020 (excludes PEUC and PUA). Since 2020 the Pennsylvania Treasury has recovered over $1.1 billion. The U.S. Treasury Offset Program collects past-due debts owed to state

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based 3 Department of Human Services Overview Mission Statement The mission of the Department of Human Services (DHS) is to assist Pennsylvanians in leading safe, healthy, and productive lives through equitable, trauma-informed, and outcome-focused services while being an accountable steward

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

to 20 percent of eligible expenses, which are generally a subset of all spending on research and development. Pennsylvania offers $55 million in total credit awards, which ranks in the middle of states that have an RDTC. It is one of sold and one of seven that has an annual dollar cap on total awards. Similar to other states, Pennsylvania follows the federal tax code to determine spending that qualifies as research and development. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on

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RB-2017-5.pdf

g., Hawaii) or natural resource industries (e.g., Colorado) or states with a relatively large number of retirees (e.g., Pennsylvania) are likely to respond to economic conditions differently than states with a more diverse 1 The analysis excludes the District personal exemption or standard deduction can make an income tax more progressive or introduce some progressivity to a flat tax. Pennsylvania levies a flat tax rate (3.07 percent) and does not allow personal exemptions or a standard deduction. 3 The

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) the distribution of taxes between state and local governments in Pennsylvania and (4) the historical tax burden for Pennsylvania over the last two decades. For the purposes of this analysis, “tax burden” equals the ratio of tax revenues to state personal

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 April 17, 2018 This document provides an analysis of the tax proposals included in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released in CNIT, with the highest statutory rate (12.00 percent) levied by Iowa and the second highest levied by Pennsylvania (9.99 percent). Fourteen states use a gradu- ated rate structure, while 30 levy a single, flat rate. As of 2017, 24

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information selected performance metrics on an annual basis. Those metrics may or may not be reviewed by policymakers. For Pennsylvania, the act requires the IFO to submit plans to the PBB Board for review and approval. The PBB Board reviews plans at

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 22, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605- in Seattle, and the president declared a national emergency on March 13. One week prior to that declaration, Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus, and on March 18, the first death due to COVID-19. As of June 19

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 26, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605- in Seattle, and the president declared a national emergency on March 13. One week prior to that declaration, Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus, and on March 18, the first death due to COVID-19. As of May 24

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based 2 - This page intentionally left blank. - Agency Overview | Page 3 Department of Aging Overview Mission Statement The mission of the Pennsylvania Department of Aging (PDA) is to promote independence, purpose and well-being in the lives of older adults through advocacy

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

specified amount per job, or (2) a share of payroll (or withholding) associated with the newly created jobs. Pennsylvania offers $10.1 million in annual non-re- fundable credits, at a rate of $1,000 per job for up to three program actually incentivize? This analysis examines this and other issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania JCTC. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and comments can be sent to contact

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 20, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605- Markit projects a deceleration of economic growth, stable wage gains and moderate inflation. (See Table 1.1 .) For Pennsylvania, the economic forecast by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact

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RB-2016-02.pdf

e.g., tax credits) spending mechanisms. Many states publish comprehensive reports that detail their spending on economic development incentives. In Pennsylvania, the information is dispersed across multiple sources and is not readily available. This research brief compiles data on economic development 25 percent tax credit for incurred production expenses on a Ðilm, television commercial or certain tele‐ vision shows produced in Pennsylvania and intended for a national audience. Historic Preservation Incentive Tax Credit $0 $0 Allows a tax credit equal to 25

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information selected performance metrics on an annual basis. Those metrics may or may not be reviewed by policymakers. For Pennsylvania, the act requires the IFO to submit plans to the PBB Board for review and approval. The PBB Board reviews plans at

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 3, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2019-20. The report describes autoregression) or indirectly. The methodology used by the IFO models sales and use taxes as a function of Pennsylvania Disposable Cash Income (DCI) to capture that linkage. The linkage occurs because wage and business income com- prise roughly 80 percent of

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 21, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Section 1704-E (b) of The Fiscal Code Markit projects a deceleration of economic growth, stable wage gains and moderate inflation. (See Table 1.1.) For Pennsylvania, the economic forecast by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

appropriated for the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data 2 2020 PA Payroll Employment: Change From Prior Year .............................................. 3 Subsector Detail: PA Employment Change From Prior Year ......................................... 4 Recent Pennsylvania Economic Trends ..................................................................... 5 Actual and Projected Federal Relief for Pennsylvania ................................................. 6 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth Rates ........................................................... 7 Pennsylvania

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 22, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2021-22 Executive Budget years beginning in 2025; and 5.99% for tax years beginning in 2026 and thereafter. Key points are as follows: ▪ Pennsylvania (9.99%) has the second highest CNIT rate in the country behind New Jersey (11.50%). For TY 2021, the

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 24, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2021-22. The a vector autoregression) or indirectly. The methodology used by the IFO models sales and use taxes as a function of Pennsylvania Disposable Cash Income (DCI) to capture that linkage. The linkage occurs because wage and business income comprise roughly 80% of

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2020-21. The report describes were generally informed by available data from third party sources and the timeline of the phased reopening for Pennsylvania businesses. Cash Flow Method Under the cash flow method, firms act as collection agents for the Commonwealth and remit weekly or monthly

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Cover: Historic Preservation Tax Credit project: “The Millworks” located in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process That Affect Economic Impact ................................................................................ 15 Two State Comparisons Using Federal Tax Credit Data .................................................................... 18 Modest Tax Credit Precludes Pennsylvania Economic Analysis .......................................................... 22 Positive Spillover Effects from Rehabilitation Projects ....................................................................... 24 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 27 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 27 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 28

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

Public Employee Retirement Commission Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Laws For Pennsylvania Local Governments Public Employee Retirement Laws For Pennsylvania Local Governments Public Employee Retirement Commission Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Revised: January 2009

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 6, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2022-23. The a vector autoregression) or indirectly. The methodology used by the IFO models sales and use taxes as a function of Pennsylvania Disposable Cash Income (DCI) to capture that linkage. The linkage occurs because wage and business income comprise roughly 80% of

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

opportunity to testify before you today. For my opening remarks, I would like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent economic indicators provide different perspectives on in 10 of the past 12 months and (3) declining corporate profits. However, many underlying economic fundamentals remain solid. For Pennsylvania, positive fundamentals include:  A stable labor market. For 2015, the Pennsylvania economy generated 54,800 additional payroll jobs, up

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information selected performance metrics on an annual basis. Those metrics may or may not be reviewed by policymakers. For Pennsylvania, the act requires the IFO to submit plans to the PBB Board for review and approval. The PBB Board reviews plans at

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

May 28, 2013 Special Report 2013-4 Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 through CY 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides This page was intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 May 28, 2013 To: The Honorable Senator John C. Rafferty This report presents the results from an analysis performed

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

an analysis of state corporate net income tax (CNIT) rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. House Bill 130 of 2017 reduces the Pennsylvania CNIT rate of 9.99 percent by 1.0 percentage point each year to a final rate of 4.99

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently, twenty-four states (includes Pennsylvania) offer one or more incentives to encourage investment in broadband infrastructure. Many of these states limit funding to, or provide a greater investment on the state economy. This analysis examines the issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania MTBI Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and comments can be sent

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. All performance- based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency (PCCD). All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information selected performance metrics on an annual basis. Those metrics may or may not be reviewed by policymakers. For Pennsylvania, the act requires the IFO to submit plans to the PBB Board for review and approval. The PBB Board reviews plans at

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

Pennsylvania E C O N O M I C & R E V E N U E U P DA T E 2 1 2 0 1 7 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 February 13, 2017 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

Pennsylvania E C O N O M I C & R E V E N U E U P DA T E 2 1 2 0 1 7 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 February 13, 2017 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: Thank you for the opportunity

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

FUNDING COST-OF-LIVING ADJUSTMENTS A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to Senate Resolution No. 103 Adopted in the Session of 1999 Public Employee Retirement Commission Harrisburg, Pennsylvania FUNDING COST-OF-LIVING ADJUSTMENTS Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Harrisburg, Pennsylvania November 2000 PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

CPI - U) Year-over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of 3.63 3.59 1,379 1,631 1,613 1,694 1.4% 1.4% 1.8% n.a. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf

Credit. As a result, this analysis has been updated to include historical data, an economic impact analysis and revised recommendations. Pennsylvania is one of 11 states that offer a tax credit to incentivize brownfield remediation and redevel- opment. Some states offer as follows:  States have implemented a wide variety of programs to incentivize brownfield remediation and redevelopment. Eleven states (including Pennsylvania) offer a tax credit to encourage remediation and redevelopment of brownfield sites. Some states (e.g., Colorado and Mississippi) offer

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 8, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2022-23 Executive Budget The Add-Back disallows deductions for royalties, licensing, or other fees paid, accrued, or incurred by a corporation subject to Pennsylvania Corporate Net Income Tax (“CNIT”) to an affiliated entity for tax years beginning after December 31, 2014. The Add-Back

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PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. All performance- based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

Pension Plans Defined Contribution Pension Plans Defined Contribution Pension Plans A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 266 Adopted in the Session of 2001-2002 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Selected Issues related to Selected Issues related to Selected Issues related to Selected Issues related to

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently, 18 states offer programs similar to Pennsylvania’s NAP Tax Credit. Most states provide a nonre- fundable credit equal to 50 percent of charitable contributions to qualified is the highest annual cap and the second highest in annual awards among states that have these tax credit programs. Pennsylvania is one of only two states that allows the tax credit to be sold. The IFO welcomes all questions and

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RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf

and retaining staff, despite nominal wages that are considerably higher than those paid prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. For Pennsylvania, the latest data (May 2022) show an unemployment rate of 4.6% and roughly 300,000 unemployed residents seeking work the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed for each April from 2018 to 2022 (latest data) for Pennsylvania and the U.S. Prior to COVID-19, the ratio was roughly 0.95 for Pennsylvania and 1.15 for

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

appropriated for the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data 3 Economics – Jobs and Labor Force Participation ......................................................... 4 Economics – Inflation and General Economics ............................................................ 5 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs ...................................................................... 6 Demographics – Pennsylvania Snapshot ..................................................................... 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Decedent Trends and Excess Death Estimate ................. 8 Demographics – Net Domestic Migration Trends ......................................................... 9 Revenues – Fiscal Year

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RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf

and retaining staff, despite nominal wages that are considerably higher than those paid prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. For Pennsylvania, the latest data (July 2022) show an unemployment rate of 4.3% and 275,100 unemployed residents seeking work. 1 the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed for each June from 2018 to 2022 (latest data) for Pennsylvania and the U.S. Prior to COVID-19, the ratio was roughly 1.0 for Pennsylvania and 1.15 for

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Economic & Revenue Update Pennsylvania House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled

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TC_2022_Brewers.pdf

on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently, 12 states (includes Pennsylvania) offer a tax incentive for brewers. Six states offer a tax credit for brewers, five states offer a tax exemption Findings and Recommendations | Page 1 General Findings and Recommendations Enacted in 2016, the Brewers’ Tax Credit is available to eligible Pennsylvania malt or brewed beverage manufacturers. The credit is equal to qualifying expenditures for capital placed into service during the prior

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 26, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1 Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook More than a year has passed since Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus and first death due to COVID-19. Since that time, the state economy

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RB-2015-04.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice November 2015 1 Research Brief 2015‐4 November 2015 Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania The FY 2015‐16 Executive Budget includes a proposal that (1) increases the state minimum wage from $7.25 to all economic and revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget. Table 1 provides a comparison of minimum wage rates for Pennsylvania and adjacent states for 2015 and 2016. For 2015, all adjacent states require that employers pay a minimum wage that

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The KIZ Tax Credit is unique to Pennsylvania, and only Maryland’s RISE program, which promotes economic and community development around qualified institutions, is somewhat comparable. Other states offer programs the state economy. This analysis examines these and other issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania KIZ Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and comments can be sent

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 23, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and potential that the forecast could deteriorate rapidly based on high energy prices, volatile and declining equity markets and global events. Pennsylvania Economic Forecast Table 1.1 displays the forecast for the primary economic variables used for this revenue estimate. The forecast

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 23, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and significant potential that the forecast could deteriorate based on high energy prices, volatile and declining equity markets and global events. Pennsylvania Economic Forecast Table 1.1 displays the forecast for the primary economic variables used for this revenue estimate. The forecast

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platt ppt.pdf

www.bea.gov Recent Trends in Personal Income, Earnings and Wages in Pennsylvania Joel D. Platt Associate Director for Regional Economics Revenue Forecasting Conference Independent Fiscal Office for Pennsylvania January 18, 2012 www.bea.gov BEA’s Mission To promote a better understanding of the U.S. economy by

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 22, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1 Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook More than a year has passed since Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus and first death due to COVID-19. Since that time, the state economy

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

patients awaiting organ and bone marrow transplants by reducing financial barriers to living donation. Currently, 21 states (including Pennsylvania) offer a tax incentive to mitigate the expenses associated with living organ or bone marrow donation, with most states providing an income any qualified miscellaneous expenses incurred in connection with the leave. The credit is subject to apportionment based on Pennsylvania payroll, may be carried forward for three taxable years, is not refundable and has no annual cap. The general findings of this

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RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf

many employers have noted ongoing challenges hiring and retaining staff due to labor market conditions that remain very tight. For Pennsylvania, the latest data (September 2022) show an unemployment rate of 4.1% and 263,560 unemployed residents seeking work. 1 the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed for each August from 2018 to 2022 (latest data) for Pennsylvania and the U.S. Prior to COVID-19, the ratio was roughly 0.9 for Pennsylvania (1.15 for U

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 16, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information selected performance metrics on an annual basis. Those metrics may or may not be reviewed by policymakers. For Pennsylvania, the act requires the IFO to submit plans to the PBB Board for review and approval. The PBB Board reviews plans at

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 14, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information selected performance metrics on an annual basis. Those metrics may or may not be reviewed by policymakers. For Pennsylvania, the act requires the IFO to submit plans to the PBB Board for review and approval. The PBB Board reviews plans at

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 June 18, 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its official revenue estimate in accord- ance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and

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MER-2014-08.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.78% 2.53% 2.58% 2.34% August 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 May 1, 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-

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Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Pennsylvania is the top exporter of electricity in the country by a significant margin. Table 1 shows net electricity generation by

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Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. This is an update of a research brief published by the IFO in September 2021 and incorporates the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Table 1 shows net electricity generation by fuel source, total electricity consumption and net exports for Pennsylvania and other regional states. Net generation is broken down into electricity generated from natural gas, coal, nuclear and other sources

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

17102 Dear Representative Ryan: This letter responds to your requests that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide various data regarding Pennsylvania residents age 65 or older. Specifically, your letters requested the following information:  Cost by major program of caring for three sections that address these issues. For ease of exposition, this letter uses the term “senior” to refer to all Pennsylvania residents age 65 or older. It is noted that many of those individuals remain employed on a full- or part-

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office June 2019 1 Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the 750 7,897 Notes: Dollar amounts in thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. 1 Distributions in 2018 include $5.0 million in fees attributable to 2016 and 2017 that were

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

7 4.8% 10.3% 78.3 51.5 3.85 1,441 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Standard and Poor’s. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Jul 7.9% -4.4 0.8% 9.3% 11.6% -12.9 3.49 1.3% Unemployment

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

Dear Representatives Boback and Petrarca: This letter responds to your request for an analysis of child welfare program funding in Pennsylvania from federal, state and local sources. Specifically, your letter requests a fiscal analysis of the federal Family First Prevention Services Fiscal Year 2020-21 budget hearings. If this schedule changes, we will contact your office. Child Welfare Program Funding in Pennsylvania For state fiscal year (SFY) 2017-18, child welfare program spending reported through the Act 148 invoices in Pennsylvania totaled

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MER-2014-04.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 1.70% 2.66% 2.73% 2.66% April 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data Independent Fiscal Office List of Materials Included Independent Fiscal Office Overview ........................................................................................................ 1 IFO Expenditures and Allocation of Staff Resources ......................................................................... 4 Pennsylvania Economic Trends ................................................................................................................. 5 PA Employment Gains and Losses by Sector ....................................................................................... 6 State Metric Comparison ............................................................................................................................ 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot .................................................................................................... 8 Most

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

0 4.1% 8.1% 74.3 49.6 3.72 1,407 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Standard and Poor’s. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Jun 7.6% -5.3 2.3% 3.9% 12.9% -16.6 3.51 1.3% Unemployment

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

April 6, 2021 Page 2 Single month state-level data based on gender are not published by BLS, but the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry recently released a brief (January 2021) using data from the Current Population Survey that provides motivate their choice to reenter or refrain from rejoining the labor force. Senator Santarsiero requested information on domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states by age groups. Please refer to the tables on pages 4 and 5. Senator Kearney asked how

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

25,823 $25,270 $554 Growth -0.3% -0.2% -3.6% Dollar amounts are in millions. MILLENNIAL MIGRATION IN PENNSYLVANIA The U.S. Census Bureau releases the American Community Survey (ACS) every year, which includes annual migration data between various These data can be narrowed down to show the migration of individuals aged 20-35 (millennials) moving to or from Pennsylvania, who obtained an associate’s or higher degree. The graph below displays the top 10 states in 2015 that those

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MER-2015-06.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains n.a. 2.53% 2.05% 2.12% 2.33% June 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey

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MER-2014-11.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.57% 2.52% 2.35% 2.24% November 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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MER-2014-06.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.52% 2.67% 2.44% 2.53% June 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office June 2018 1 Impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the 643 7,750 Notes: Dollar amounts in thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. 1 Housing Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement Fund. For CY 2017, the PUC reported impact fee revenues of

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice July 2017 1 Research Brief 2017‐3 July 2017 Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the 545 7,643 Notes: Dollar amounts in thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. 1 Housing Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement Fund. details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating

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TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf

for this report, but all declined to participate. Currently, only three states offer a mixed-use development tax credit incentive. Pennsylvania’s program is unique in that the proceeds from the sale of the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits are deposited Recommendations | Page 1 General Findings and Recommendations Enacted in 2016, the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit is administered by the Pennsylvania Housing Finance Authority (PHFA). The PHFA is authorized to sell $4.5 million in state tax credits annually to qualified

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

In response to a request from the General Assembly, this document updates the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) official General Fund revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 to reflect the projected assumed for the two stylized scenarios. The income sources displayed in Table 2 reflect the majority of income received by Pennsylvania residents. Retirement (pensions, IRA disbursements) and transfer (Social Security) income are not shown because the analysis IFO Gov. Budget Office

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RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf

This research brief provides an overview of Pennsylvania’s gasoline tax rate, revenue collections, consumption and average tax burden per Pennsylvania licensed driver. Gasoline tax collections comprise roughly 55% of total Motor License Fund (MLF) revenues. 1 Residual MLF revenues are

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

June Retail Spending Increased 6.8% in Pennsylvania The U.S. Census Bureau recently released monthly state retail sales for June. Pennsylvania spending on automotive and other vehicle dealers (11.9%), food and beverage (12.0%) and building materials and supplies (24

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt 6 General Fund Revenues Sales and Personal Income Tax – Withholding 9 Personal Income Tax – Nonwithholding 10 Corporate Net Income Tax 11 Realty Transfer Tax 12 The Pennsylvania Economy and Revenues - Key Forecast Risks 13 Suggested Reading 14 1 Independent Fiscal Office - Overview Background The office was created

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 16, 2021 The Honorable Francis X. Ryan Pennsylvania House of Representatives 149A East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Ryan: Thank you for your recent the office in February 2021. Table 2 provides detail on the estimated costs of major programs that provide services to Pennsylvania seniors from FY 2018-19 to FY 2020-21. The major program costs include (1) the portion of Medicaid and

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

payments must be made to SERS by May 1, 2025. To date, two employers have made advance contributions: (1) The Pennsylvania State University ($1.1 billion in 2020) and (2) the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education ($825 million in 2021). • Act 128 of 2020: Enacts administrative and reporting changes for SERS

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

IFO | MARCH 2018 1 INTRODUCTION Pennsylvania’s Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) encourages businesses to invest in projects that serve distressed areas or support neighborhood conservation. 1 This tax credit program is administered by the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) and consists of five components: (1) the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit, (2

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

highly addictive nature, produced the current opioid crisis. For 2015, data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) show that Pennsylvania’s rate of opioid drug overdose deaths ranked 18th in the nation. In addition to significant personal costs, the crisis and economies. The opioid overdose death rate (rate per 100,000 in population) has increased dramatically. (See table.) In 2015, Pennsylvania’s opioid overdose death rate was 11.2, up from 5.1 in 2010, a growth rate of 120 percent

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

Transfer receipts include government assistance to individuals such as Social Security and medical benefits. In the first quarter of 2017, Pennsylvania personal income grew to $52,240 per capita, a 4.0% year-over-year increase. (See table.) The majority of to the two major snowstorms that occurred in 2016. Another factor in the recent per capita gain is due to Pennsylvania’s contracting population, which provides a temporary boost, but may restrain future economic growth. Since 2012, Pennsylvania personal income has

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

10.9% FYTD $16,097 $15,877 $220 Growth 1.2% 1.2% 4.8% Dollar amounts are in millions. PENNSYLVANIA HOME SALES STRONG Pennsylvania home sales continued a pattern of strong growth in 2016. The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors (PAR) releases quarterly reports on

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

The table below shows real GDP growth at annualized rates (first and second quarters and first half of 2016) for Pennsylvania and contiguous states. The growth of real GDP measures total economic output (adjusted for inflation), and can be used to evaluate the rate at which a state economy expands or contracts. In Pennsylvania, real GDP declined at an average annual rate of 2.0% in the first half of 2016. The decline was

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

25,322 $574 Growth 0.7% 2.5% -42.9% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA HOUSING MARKET SOLID The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors (PAR) publishes quarterly data on home prices and sales completed by realtors in the Commonwealth. 1 The average price of a single family home sold increased by 4.0% in 2014 and 4.6% in 2015. Although Pennsylvania home sales were considerably stronger in 2015, the average price increase was much lower. For the first quarter of 2016

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MER-2015-03.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.73% 1.64% 2.00% 1.96% March 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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MER-2014-10.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.57% 2.35% 2.52% 2.32% October 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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MER-2013-11.pdf

CPI - U) Year-over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of 3.34 3.24 1,416 1,682 1,763 1,802 1.8% 1.2% 0.9% n.a. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf

impact of the changes, the impact across household income quintiles and uses those findings to estimate the potential impact on Pennsylvania borrowers. The most recent data from the U.S. Department of Education are also used to examine loan balances and additional details and data become available. Table 2 uses the income breakouts from the analysis and applies it to the Pennsylvania share of total federal student loan debt. Data from the U.S. Department of Education show that the Pennsylvania share

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

Natural gas royalties are an important source of income for many Pennsylvania landowners. Firms pay royalties based on the revenues received from the sale of natural gas extracted from wells located on a landowner’s property. Pennsylvania law mandates a minimum royalty rate of 12.5 percent of the market value of the sale. 1 Some contracts

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

Lowest Level in Decades The average price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania impact fee is based, settled at $1.50 for July. This is the lowest monthly price in over 20 years Pulse Survey contains survey data from July 2 to July 7 on current trends related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Pennsylvania households that held a mortgage reported that 83.2% paid the previous month’s mortgage, which was lower than the

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

Pennsylvania March Jobs Growth Flat The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released March employment data for Pennsylvania. Year-over-year total non-farm employment growth was essentially flat (0.1%, 6,200 jobs, not seasonally adjusted). The

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MER-2015-04.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.67% 2.00% 1.96% 2.06% April 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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MER-2014-07.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.60% 2.48% 2.53% 2.57% July 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

November 14, 2019 Modernizing Pennsylvania’s Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Katherine Loughead Policy Analyst Center for State Tax Policy Tax Foundation kloughead@taxfoundation.org PENNSYLVANIA’S TAX CODE CONTAINS MULTIPLE BARRIERS TO BUSINESS TAX COMPETITIVENESS STATE  Uncompetitive treatment of NOLs  Room for improvement

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

purpose. 1 See http://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20190313_quarterly_refinance_report.page. March 6, 2020 Page 2 Senator Haywood asked which Pennsylvania income groups have benefited from the recent growth in gross domestic product. To examine this issue, the IFO used data that time. Table 1 displays snapshots for these two years. The top third of the table displays results for all Pennsylvania households. 2 From 2012 to 2018, the data reveal the following:  The number of households increased by 113,000

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RB-2018-01.pdf

discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE, or department) is for fiscal year (FY) 2015-16. For that year, current-year collections were estimate, the office supplemented the data from STEB with survey data collected in conjunction with the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania. 2 Data on Act 1 allocations are released by PDE each fiscal year, and the amounts for FY 2016-17

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE August 16, 2018 The Honorable Eddie Day Pashinski The Honorable P. Michael Sturla Pennsylvania House of Representatives Pennsylvania House of Representatives 203 Irvis Office Building 414 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representatives Pashinski

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

auto, credit card and student loan, and provide insight as to whether consumers are accumulating or paying down debt. For Pennsylvania and most nearby states, total consumer debt peaked in 2008 prior to the Great Recession. Pennsylvania’s total consumer debt surpassed its 2008 level ($395 billion) in 2011 ($399 billion) and has grown by 2.5%

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

Pennsylvania Exports Reach $40 Billion in 2015 Preliminary data for 2015 suggest that the dollar value of Pennsylvania exports to other countries will increase to $39.9 billion, an average growth rate of 6.0% per annum from

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

The higher the LFPR, the larger share of the working-age population that is working or seeking employment. Since 1999, Pennsylvania LFPRs have fallen for teens and young adults. For the 16-19 years old age group, the LFPR fell 11 percentage points (pp) from 1999 (51.9%) to 2014 (40.9%) for Pennsylvania and 18 pp (52.0% in 1999, 34.0% in 2014) for the U.S. (See table below.) Over that

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

29.1%. Respondents reported 36.4% of the payment would be saved and 34.5% used to pay down debt. Pennsylvanians received an estimated $11.0 billion in EIPs in 2020 and the survey results suggest that $3.2 billion was 9% used to pay down debt. The IFO projects an additional $6.3 billion in EIPs will be issued to Pennsylvanians in 2021, which suggests $1.5 billion will be used for personal consumption. Pandemic Boosts Pennsylvania Cigarette Tax Collections An

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MER-2014-02.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job a. 1.89% 3.04% 2.67% 2.67% February 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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MER-2014-01.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job a. 2.02% 2.75% 3.04% 2.67% January 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

appropriated for the current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. This submission includes data Executive Budget vs IFO ....................... 5 Economic Trends .......................................................................................................................... 6 PA Employment Gains and Losses by Sector .................................................................... 7 State Metric Comparison ........................................................................................................... 8 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ................................................................................. 9 Pennsylvania Demographic Trends .................................................................................... 10 State Domestic Migration Comparison .............................................................................. 11 2018-19 Revenue Update........................................................................................................ 12 2019-20 Revenue

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 March 7, 2017 The Honorable Stan Saylor Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear the primary budget approach utilized by 30 states. 1 Representative Quinn inquired about the out-migration of young people in Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, migration data for all individuals in a particular age group are not readily available. However, the United States Internal

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

7, 2014 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 IFO Reports and Analyses 2 Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 Consumer Debt 7 General Fund Revenues Sales three-month and twelve-month growth rate trends. • Monthly Economic Report. A concise listing of the latest economic releases for Pennsylvania and the U.S. Revenue Estimates: • Initial Revenue Estimate. Due by May 1 each year. • Official Revenue Estimate. Due by

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

CPI - U) Year-over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of 3.53 3.34 1,412 1,633 1,682 1,763 2.2% 1.5% 1.2% n.a. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

CPI - U) Year-over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of 3.61 3.63 1,362 1,598 1,631 1,613 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% n.a. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE, or department) is for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. For that year, current-year collections were depending upon the district’s aid ratio. 3 The base index is calculated by averaging the percentage increase in the Pennsylvania statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) and the employment cost index (ECI) for elementary/secondary schools. 4 School districts with an

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

Research Brief | October 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 All projects must also follow requirements under the competitive bidding process, Pennsylvania Steel Products Procurement Act, Trade Practices Act, public works contractors’ bond law, the Pennsylvania Prevailing Wage Act, the Americans with Disabilities Act and meet certain fidelity bond and insurance (workers’ compensation, general liability and

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Existing Home Prices Increase by 5.0% in 2019 Q1 On May 28, the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) released the housing price index for 2019 Q1. For Pennsylvania, the first quarter non-seasonally adjusted purchase-only index increased by 5.0% on a year-over- year basis. Nearly

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

has remained relatively low over the past three years, and that outcome has implications for large federal transfers made to Pennsylvania residents. For 2016, the Social Security Administration recently announced that recipients will not receive an annual cost of living adjustment have received an average COLA of 1.9% per annum since 2007. The impact of Social Security benefits on the Pennsylvania economy is significant. In 2014, approximately 2.8 million Pennsylvania residents received Social Security benefits (includes retirees, disabled workers and

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

BaɈɅiɈg IɈdɏɍɎɌɓ AdaɊɎɍ Tɉ A ChaɈgiɈg EcɉɈɉɇɓ AɈd Neɑ RegɏɆaɎiɉɈɍ The banking industry is an integral part of the Pennsylvania economy, and supports thousands of jobs by matching borrowers and lenders. The industry has been evolving in recent years due negative implications for their thinner profit margins. As a result, large banks now comprise a somewhat greater share of the Pennsylvania market, as measured by their share of total deposits. In 2006, the ten largest banks comprised 59.7 percent of

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

prices in prior years. The near-month settlement price of gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which Pennsylvania’s impact fee schedule is based, is $3.62 for July. This is the highest monthly price since January 2019 for the second half of the year suggest that the NYMEX average will exceed $3.00 for the full year. Pennsylvania regional prices are also at the highest level in several years. The average spot price at major Pennsylvania hubs was

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MER-2015-02.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.66% 2.17% 1.64% 2.00% February 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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MER-2014-12.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 3.04% 2.35% 2.24% 2.22% December 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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MER-2014-09.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.64% 2.58% 2.35% 2.52% September 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office | June 2021 Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the Revenue and Distributions Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. Impact Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JUNE 2021 PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office January 2020 1 2019 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the 897 7,700 Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. CY 2019 is an estimate by the IFO. 1 Distributions in 2018 include $5.0 million in

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

0 4.1% 12.1% 72.9 50.7 3.31 1,426 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Standard and Poor’s. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

7 4.8% 9.8% 78.3 51.5 3.85 1,441 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Standard and Poor’s. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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Sen_Maj_Pol_Comm_Brain_Drain_Workshop_04_30_2019.pdf

Data Requested for: Senate Majority Policy Committee Public Workshop: Student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania April 30, 2019 Submitted by: Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 1 3,865 2018 12,807,060 16,613 135,905 133,562 2,343 35,377 -20,463 14,914 Pennsylvania Population Components of Change (2000 - 2018) 1 Population change equals births minus deaths (natural increase) plus net migration plus a

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE, or department) is for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. For that year, current-year collections were depending upon the district’s aid ratio. 3 The base index is calculated by averaging the percentage increase in the Pennsylvania statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) and the employment cost index (ECI) for elementary/secondary schools. 4 School districts with an

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RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf

additional debt to allow the option of a one-time advance payment. The act excludes specific employers such as the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission, the State Public School Building Authority and the Delaware River Basin Commission (among others). Because Act 120 of 105 of 2019 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 To date, two employers – The Pennsylvania State University (Penn State, PSU) and the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE) – have entered into agreements with SERS

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NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

January 2020 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND States Pay $30 Billion per Year on Targeted Tax Breaks A recent article in flow to a small group of firms that expand to new locations. State Leading Index Declines in Nine States Including Pennsylvania On December 31, 2019 the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its State Leading Indexes, a six-month forecast of

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

in millions. NATURAL GAS DRILLING JOBS DECLINE AS PRODUCTION INCREASES Employment in the natural gas industry has been declining in Pennsylvania in recent years. Data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 1 show a significant reduction in natural gas drilling jobs through the first quarter of 2016. Conversely, data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection reveal a significant increase in the production of natural gas during the same period. The chart

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

patterns for calendar years 2012 and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania, more than five million federal tax returns were matched between the two years. The database of matched returns allows the IRS to identify a migrating taxpayer’s origin and destination states. The data reveal a net outflow from Pennsylvania of 21,578 individuals (includes dependents) and $935 million of adjusted gross income reported on tax returns for tax year

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Marcellus Shale Coalition Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 31, 2022 1 Overview A sizable budget surplus this year ▪ Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Approximately $6 billion in federal tax years 2023-2025 ▪ 6.99% for tax year 2026 | 5.99% for tax year 2027 Overall Net Tax Cut Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update March 31, 2022 9 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

Younger workers, women, and to a lesser extent, non-white workers experienced job loss disproportionate to their share of the Pennsylvania workforce. The most dramatic job loss occurred for workers aged 14 to 24, who experienced a decline of nearly 170 Q3, accounted for 55% of the YOY job loss in 2020 Q3. Additionally, non-white workers represented 17% of the Pennsylvania workforce in 2019 Q3, but 19% of the job loss in 2020 Q3. Traditional continued unemployment compensation (UC) claims data

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Turnpike Traffic Declined 26 Percent in 2020 For 2020, the Pennsylvania Turnpike reports a total of 118.5 million vehicle trips, a decline of 26.0%, or 41.6 million fewer

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

job losses since April (-1.1 million) have been recovered. However, the pace of the recovery is slowing. In July, Pennsylvania added 53,400 jobs from the prior month after adding 227,300 and 217,400 in May and June, respectively rate ticked up from 13.2% in June to 13.7% in July, due in part to almost 88,000 Pennsylvanians reentering the labor force. The pace of the jobs recovery was generally consistent across sectors. For example, the retail (-127

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

Federal Stimulus Drives Record Pennsylvania Lottery Sales Through the week ending March 30, fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) lottery game sales are $4.29 billion pre-pandemic). Growth in instant ticket (+$465 million, +19%) and iLottery (+$208 million, +25%) explain over 80% of increased sales. Pennsylvania Gaming Revenue Sets Record in March The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board released monthly gaming revenues for March 2021. Gaming revenues

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MER-2015-01.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains n.a. 2.67% 2.18% 2.17% 1.64% January 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey

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MER-2014-03.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job a. 1.87% 2.67% 2.67% 2.69% March 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the Revenue and Distributions Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. 1 Distributions in 2018 include $5.0 million in fees attributable to 2016 and 2017 that were

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE, or department) is for fiscal year (FY) 2018- 19. For that year, current-year collections were depending upon the district’s aid ratio. 4 The base index is calculated by averaging the percentage increase in the Pennsylvania statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) and the employment cost index (ECI) for elementary/secondary schools. 5 School districts with an

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

CPI - U) Year-over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of 3.57 3.53 1,441 1,686 1,633 1,682 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% n.a. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

3 4.5% 10.6% 77.6 54.2 3.67 1,515 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Poor’s. (March 2013 is as of 3/28/13) 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

0 4.7% 8.6% 73.2 49.7 3.54 1,362 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 7.4% 7.4 6.5%

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SR2017-06.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE December 6, 2017 Douglas E. Hill Executive Director County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania P.O. Box 60769 Harrisburg, PA 17106-0769 Dear Mr. Hill, The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania (CCAP) recently provided the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) with assistance in obtaining estimates for the assessed value of homestead property

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RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf

on recent data releases from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Safety Council and the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Table 1 displays final Pennsylvania death data prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic for 2017 to 2019, updated figures for 2020 and

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the economic impact due to the transfer of funds directly to individuals by Initial payments in 2020 (April to July) were $600/week. In qualifying weeks since, payments have been $300/week in Pennsylvania (including LWA payments for qualifying weeks in August and September 2020). The table below uses data from the Pennsylvania Department

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

were disbursed by private lenders from April through August 2020. This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. PPP Detail 10 million. 4 The table on the next page provides detail for the $20.7 billion of loans made to Pennsylvania firms based on size of loan, type of firm and sector. Highlights include:  Firms that received a loan under

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RB-2019-01.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2019-1 January 2019 2018 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the 500 Conservation Districts/Commission 7,500 7,545 7,643 7,750 7,750 Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. Estimates for CY 2018 by the IFO. 1 Housing Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement Fund. The estimated amount

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

Presentation to PICPA December 3, 2014 Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania’s Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20 Provide Five-Year Projections For: • Pennsylvania Demographics • Pennsylvania Economics • General Fund Revenues • General Fund Expenditures Why Do We Do It? • Establish a neutral baseline to assess

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

Pennsylvania’s Fiscal and Demographic Outlook Presentation to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce and Industry Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note: Pennsylvania General Fund expenditures and revenues as a percentage of state GDP. Source: Economic and Budget Outlook, Independent Fiscal Office, November

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NGPR_2021_Q3.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional

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NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional

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NGPR_2020_Q4.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FOURTH QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99 percent of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional

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NGPR-2022-Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2022 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These and well count data used throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of total production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Historically, coal and nuclear energy were the two largest sources of electricity for Pennsylvania, comprising over 90% of total electricity generated in 2006. While nuclear energy has maintained a relatively stable share of the market since 2006, coal’s share has dropped precipitously. Over the last decade, coal’s share of electricity generation in Pennsylvania has contracted from 55% in 2006 to 25% in 2016, due, in part, to the increasing prevalence of natural gas

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

two sectors are large enough to offset moderate to strong profit gains in most other sectors. Recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue show that Pennsylvania’s three largest corporate sectors (in terms of taxable profits) are the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade sectors. These three

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

Applications for New Business in Pennsylvania Grow 15% Over 2019 The U.S. Census Bureau released Pennsylvania weekly business application data for the week ending September 12, 2020. The data reveal that after slowing in March through

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf

Pennsylvania Fuel Prices Reach Highest Level On Record The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases weekly gasoline and diesel fuel prices for the U.S. and by region. Pennsylvania is included in the Central Atlantic region, along with Maryland, New York, New Jersey and Delaware. Data for the first

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

The Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2012-13 to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report posted to IFO website: www.ifo.state.pa.us.  Demographic Outlook  New projections  What implications do broad demographic trends have for revenues and expenditures?  What is the likely path of the Pennsylvania economy over the next six years?  Will future tax revenues be sufficient to fund the policy choices reflected in

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 29, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issues this report as an update to its official revenue estimate released in June 2020 Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank- Economic Update | Page 1 Economic Update The Pennsylvania economic forecast is based on the latest data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Bureau

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

CPI - U) Year-over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of 3.57 3.61 1,310 1,569 1,598 1,631 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% n.a. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf

August 24, 2018 Page 2 the federal income tax returns filed by Pennsylvania residents, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is unable to simulate the number of taxpayers that would be affected and the number of taxpayers that could be impacted by the provisions noted above. The data show that: • Over 6.2 million Pennsylvania residents filed a federal return and the majority (83.4 percent) reported adjusted gross income under $100,000. • Over 1

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

410 5,048 7,324 4,192 7,806 Difference 4,857 -933 -1,244 -3,664 -587 -5,667 Pennsylvania eHealth Partnership Fund Receipts 2,008 4,042 1,561 16 12 0 Disbursements 1,727 2,396 3,134 240 2,003 0 Difference 281 1,646 -1,573 -224 -1,991 0 Pennsylvania Infrastructure Bank Receipts 16,671 17,268 15,888 18,213 15,447 17,154 Disbursements 20,137 21,153

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The most recent school district property tax data published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE, or the department) is for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For that year, current-year collections this estimate assumes no decline in current-year collections. 2 This revision is due to additional federal stimulus provided to Pennsylvania residents after release of the previous forecast that offset the reduction in the property tax collection rate initially anticipated. Estimated

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RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf

released. The IFO will update this analysis when full data for calendar year 2021 become available. Table 1 displays final Pennsylvania death data prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic for 2017 to 2019, preliminary figures for 2020 and 44.4%), overdoses (+812, 19.1%) and non-vehicle accidents (+867, 11.8%). For 2021, the estimates are based on Pennsylvania Department of Health data through June (suicides, accidents, overdoses and homicides) and data through 2021 Q2 from the National Safety

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

June. 4 ) The top bank of figures show amounts reported to the Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) or Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) by calendar year or school year. The middle portion of the table shows the EIT base Statistics, State and Area Employment, (2) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and (3) Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. 3 Because a disproportionate share of lost jobs is part-time or in low-wage

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

year 2018. Recently, the IRS released state level tax data that reveal the impact that tax law changes had on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. This research brief provides a general analysis of those impacts and how tax law changes affected federal credit for other dependents.  Increased alternative minimum tax (AMT) exemption phase-out thresholds. The impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers will depend on income level, family size, filing status, homeownership status and various other factors. This research

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

February 27, 2018 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office CompetePA Retreat Economy, Revenues and Budget Pennsylvania economic growth rates or change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 2 likely grow due to aging population, rising interest rates and modest revenue growth 1 Impact of Federal Tax Reform on Pennsylvania Anticipate large increase in PA disposable income for FY 2018-19  US personal income tax cut: $189 billion (Joint

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NGPR_2022_Q2.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2022 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to compute statewide totals for production volume and well counts. These g., shale) and data used by this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of total production in Pennsylvania. The report also includes (1) county-level production and well count comparisons, (2) state production comparisons from the U.S

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NGPR_2021_Q4.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FOURTH QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of total production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

February 2020 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Mortgage Originations Grow 87% as Homeowners Refinance The Federal Reserve Bank of New York favorable balance of payments, paying $2,792 per capita more in federal taxes than its residents received in federal expenditures. Pennsylvania ranked 23rd receiving $2,658 more federal expenditures per capita than federal taxes paid. Across all 50 states, only 7

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

July 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Nursing Home Costs Outpacing Medical and Consumer Inflation On June 25, Bloomberg featured the Bureau of Economic Analysis released state personal income data for 2019 Q1. Compared to the prior year, data show that Pennsylvania personal income grew by 3.5% in the first quarter with the larg- est earnings increase coming from government transfers

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

released for the fourth quarter of 2016. For calendar year 2016, the data show that the number of jobs in Pennsylvania increased by 46,435, compared to 54,494 in the prior year. 1 The table below shows the change in Pennsylvania employment for the sectors that recorded the largest gains and contractions in 2016, as well as the change for those

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

World Bank and International Monetary Fund reduced their 2016 outlooks for global and U.S. economic growth. Despite these trends, Pennsylvania’s economy remains relatively healthy; however, the release of state economic data typically lags national sources. One timely indicator of economy and are willing to spend instead of save. However, very recent revenue data from June suggest possible weakness in Pennsylvania. June sales and use tax revenues declined (-1.1%) year-over- year, while personal income tax (PIT) collections exhibited unexpected

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

as wages, business profits, Social Security, pensions, dividends, rent, interest and various disability and income security benefits. 2 For 2015, Pennsylvania Personal Income increased by 3.3%, versus 4.4% for the U.S. The main component of Personal Income is of gross earnings, and those data can be used to quantify the relative size of a given sector for the Pennsylvania economy. For 2015, the only sector to contract was the mining sector (-6.7%), largely due to a reduction in

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf

10 percentage points from the month prior. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on summer travel season, and provides a better picture of the labor market as demand for leisure and travel slows. The Pennsylvania labor market remains extraordinarily tight, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% (non-seasonally adjusted) and 4.1% (seasonally

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf

Million in 2022 The near-month settlement price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which Pennsylvania’s Impact Fee is based, is $5.84 per MMBtu for October. This is the highest monthly price recorded since Surge On September 27, Apartment List released rent estimates for September 2021 that reveal an overall monthly rental price in Pennsylvania of $1,129, an 11.5% increase from the prior year (based on five metro areas, weighted average for studios

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf

S. economic recession within the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a strong indicator that the economy has likely not entered into recession. The same is true for job openings. The Pennsylvania labor market remains extraordinarily tight, as the October unemployment rate fell to 4.0% (seasonally adjusted) and 3.3% (non-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf

Pennsylvania Employment Gains and Labor Demand Remain Strong Since the release of June CPI-U data last week, many analysts now upcoming year. For the next several months, this economic update will use state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy is heading towards recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf

below shows the year-over-year (YOY) growth in the nominal average hourly earnings for all private payroll workers for Pennsylvania. The data exclude government workers and self-employed individuals and are not seasonally adjusted. Although the data are not seasonally The near-term outlook for real average hourly earnings will depend on whether residents return to the labor force (the Pennsylvania labor force participation rate for December (59.8%, non-seasonally adjusted) was the lowest rate for that month since December

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

amount of cash-out refinancings was the largest since 2007. Other data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (proprietary) show that Pennsylvania comprises 3.1% of national refinance applications. That share implies an estimate of $1.2 billion (3.1% * $37 billion) of home equity withdrawn in 2020 Q3 by Pennsylvania homeowners. Business Travel Could Permanently Decline 19% to 36% A recent WSJ article discusses the potential long-term impact of

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

Nearly 13% in 2021 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released consumer debt data for 2021 Q2. Pennsylvania auto loan debt grew 12.7% from 2020 Q2, the fastest rate of growth across the six consumer debt categories the monthly price exceeded $4.00 since 2014. According to the latest data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), Pennsylvania production from January to May 2021 increased by 5.6% from the same period in 2020. For comparison, production from

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MER-2014-05.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains a. 2.16% 2.73% 2.67% 2.44% May 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey

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Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf

as federal Ohio $200 credit $200 credit exempt Oklahoma $10,000 $10,000 exempt Oregon limited exemption limited exemption exempt Pennsylvania exempt exempt exempt Rhode Island $15,000 $15,000 depends on income South Carolina $3,000/$10,000 $3,000 3.02% Age 65+ 1.63% Age 65+ 2.74% Source: Calculations by the IFO. Personal Income Property Table 2 Pennsylvania Tax Burden State Rank Amount Ratio 1 State Rank Amount Ratio 1 New York 1 $56,226 5.55% Vermont

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf

Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. The fee is administered by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and proceeds are distributed to local governments and state agencies for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 January 12, 2017 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs

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2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the 10.5 $10.5 $10.5 $10.5 Conservation Districts/Commission $7.9 $7.9 $7.9 $7.9 Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. 1

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2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the Revenue and Distributions Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. 1 Distributions in 2018 include $5.0 million in fees attributable to 2016 and 2017 that were

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

CPI - U) Year-over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of 3.59 3.57 1,407 1,606 1,686 1,636 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% n.a. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 March 7, 2017 The Honorable Patrick M. Browne Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 IFO). Specifically, Senator Vulakovich inquired about the treatment of corporate net operating losses (NOLs) in other states as compared to Pennsylvania. Current federal law allows 20 years of NOL carryforwards and 2 years of NOL carrybacks. Thirty states (including Pennsylvania) and

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Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE . September 30, 2019 The Honorable Francis X. Ryan Pennsylvania House of Representatives 149A East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Ryan: Thank you for your July the current state tax base and assume that the tax would be collected at the state level.  Under current Pennsylvania law, employee contributions to qualified retirement accounts are subject to PIT, but qualified distributions from those accounts (including employer contributions

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RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf

that exceeded 1.00% of the state population, while South Carolina and Delaware rounded out the top five states. ▪ For Pennsylvania, net domestic migration was -4,866 (-0.04% of state population) which ranked 31 st across all states. ▪ The border relative net outflow, as net migration reduced the state population by 1.23% (-248,305). Table 2 shows detail for Pennsylvania only and top and bottom states based on net inflows or outflows. The data show that: ▪ The largest net inflows

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RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

This research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The brief divides economic development incentives into 23 and is expected to reduce sales tax collections by approximately $40 million annually. • Act 25 of 2021 created the Pennsylvania Housing Tax Credit. Taxpayers that own or develop qualified low-income housing projects can claim up to $1.5 million

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

This research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The brief divides economic development into four years with a slight increase in FY 2019-20. The program was created to incentivize film and television production in Pennsylvania and has been modified numerous times. Most recently, Act 13 of 2019 increased the annual program cap to $70.0

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

PA Employment by Industry Annual Wages and Employment for Pennsylvania, 1993-2013 Average Annual Growth Rate Wage Distributions ($ millions) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1990-2012 Year/ Total Population Share of Population Annual Growth Rate Age Group Delaware Maryland New Jersey New York Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia West Virginia Delaware Maryland New Jersey New York Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia West Virginia Delaware Maryland New Jersey New York

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

Annual Conference and Exhibits The IFO Perspective on State Financial and Demographic Data Presentation at the Annual Conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office March 8, 2018 Today’s Presentation Updates 775 2.7% Other (debt related) $934 3.3% Total $28,494 100.0% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 4 March 8, 2018 Homestead Survey IFO uses survey results to inform its estimates of homestead property

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 1, 2019 Today’s IFO Presentation  Executive Summary | Crucial Assumptions | Recession Risk  Demographics: a contracting workforce  843 2.7% Other (debt related) $1,759 5.7% Total $30,751 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. IFO School Property Tax Forecast $7,346 $7,567 $7,746 $7,968 $8,192 $8,459

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NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99 percent of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional

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NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) from natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99 percent of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional

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NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) from natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which account for over 99 percent of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

October 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Growing Number of Older Americans Burdened by Housing Costs A report by Harvard University tax year 2018—marking the 7th year of decline as IRS employment shrinks. Personal Consumption Expenditure Growth Accelerated in 2018 Pennsylvania personal consumption expenditures grew 4.9% in 2018, accelerating from a 3.6% increase in 2017. The data, released by

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

December 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND November Retail Sales An article by the Wall Street Journal reports that November retail international peers. Natural Gas The average price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), upon which the Pennsylvania Impact Fee is based, settled at $2.63 for calendar year 2019. This represents a 15% decline from the prior

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

each percentage point of growth generates roughly $100 million of new revenues. Weak sales tax revenues are not limited to Pennsylvania. As shown by the table, some adjacent states have also experienced modest (or negative) growth of sales tax revenues. Four Growth State Growth New York +3.9% Ohio +3.4% Virginia +2.2% Massachusetts +2.1% New Jersey +1.5% Pennsylvania +0.7% West Virginia -2.2% Note: Year-over-year growth rates for July 2016 through April 2017 reve- nues

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

consumers have recently benefited from very low inflation in 2015 (0.1% annual increase) and 2016 (1.1% through August). Pennsylvania consumers have also benefited, as the Philadelphia metro area Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) shows even weaker regional inflation (-0 from $3.81 in the fourth quarter of 2014, to $3.10 in the third quarter of 2016. 1 For Pennsylvania, the average price for a gallon of reduced fat milk declined from $4.09 to $3.30 in the second

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

which provides historical revenues, retail sales (demand) and average retail prices of electricity on national, regional and state levels. For Pennsylvania, these data show that from 2005 to 2015, demand for electricity displayed nearly flat growth (-0.1% per annum), while to price changes and likely to seek low-cost suppliers who benefit from falling commodity prices. Recent data from the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission show that from 2013 to 2015, the number of commercial and industrial customers who actively shopped for

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

56.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. 2015 JOBS SURPASS 2007 LEVELS Calendar year 2015 marks the first year that Pennsylvania payroll employment surpassed its pre-recession level. Preliminary data for 2015 reveal average employment of 5.84 million payroll jobs jobs, expanding by 106,800 payroll jobs (12.5%). This sector is typically the largest generator of jobs for the Pennsylvania economy and comprises 16.4% of total employment. The professional and business services sector (includes administrative and management) expanded by

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf

into a recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on 61.7% Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Employment and Training Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Calendar Year 2022 Pennsylvania Labor Market Indicators Note: UI is unemployment insurance. Data are seasonally adjusted except UI Claims. Pre-COVID figures are monthly

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

inflation for actual consumer purchases because it excludes rent imputed to homeowners. Data Reveal Steep Increase in Rental Prices Across Pennsylvania Recent data collected and compiled by two non-governmental firms find rapid growth in rental prices for urban areas across surpass the average 2% to 3% per annum rent growth in those cities for recent pre-COVID years. Rents in Pennsylvania’s lower-density cities such as Allentown (+20.0%) and Harrisburg (+19.6%) increased at a higher rate. These strong

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

actually purchase. PA Total Wage Growth Accelerates Based on the latest four months of data, growth of wages paid to Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the state economy received a significant boost from the latest round of federal stimulus exceed wages that could be earned through employment and/or (2) children may be at home and require supervision. Currently, Pennsylvania does not require individuals who receive benefits to demonstrate an active job search. Monthly Economic Update May 2021 Monthly Data

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Home Values Grew 10.9% in 2020 Q4 The Federal Housing Finance Agency recently released 2020 Q4 home price index data. Pennsylvania home values grew 10.9% in 2020 Q4 compared to the same quarter of the prior year. National 2020 Q4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf

a mild recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy might enter into recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular 61.7% Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Employment and Training Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Calendar Year 2022 Pennsylvania Labor Market Indicators Note: UI is unemployment insurance. Data are seasonally adjusted except UI Claims. Pre-COVID figures are monthly

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MER-2013-12.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job n.a. 1.72 2.62 2.72 2.96 December 2013 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey

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IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf

remarks, I will provide comments on the most recent assumptions used by the consultant to model the potential impact on Pennsylvania from joining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative or RGGI. I will limit my comments to model assumptions, as I am non-RGGI states from 2008 to 2020. CO2 emissions fell dramatically across all states while net generation increased only for Pennsylvania and Virginia. RGGI Auction Market Clearing Prices RGGI auction prices much higher than assumed in the most recent February 2021

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

through related-party transactions and is subject to less manipulation by firms;  it will “level the playing field” because Pennsylvania-only firms cannot shift profits to other states; and  it should not prove burdensome because firms already use this CNIT, with the highest statutory rate (12.00 percent) levied by Iowa followed by New Jersey (10.50 percent) and Pennsylvania (9.99 percent).  Fourteen states use a graduated rate structure, while 30 levy a flat rate. Since 2008, 17

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FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf

Investment $8.6 $9.0 $9.2 $8.8 $10.7 % of Total Cost 43% 41% 40% 44% 42% Source: Pennsylvania State Conservation Commission. Award Year Note: Dollar amounts in millions, except for Average Credit. USDA vs. REAP Application Data October Corp 5% Other 1% Individuals 57% Pass-throughs 37% Banks 3% Corp 3% REAP Awards by Entity Type (2019) Source: Pennsylvania State Conservation Commission. State Comparison Chesapeake Bay Program ▪ Pennsylvania and five other states (plus D.C.) are part of the

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2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf

Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 Conservation Districts/Commission 7.9 7.9 8.9 8.9 Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. 2022 is an estimate by the IFO. Table 1: Impact Fee Revenue and Distributions Note: Dollar amounts

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

CPI - U) Year-over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of 3.71 3.57 1,398 1,515 1,569 1,594 2.3% 2.0% 1.5% n.a. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

0 4.5% 11.3% 73.8 53.1 3.31 1,498 1.6% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Poor’s. (February 2013 is as of 2/27/13) 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

0 4.7% 10.0% 82.6 51.7 3.75 1,412 2.2% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of and Poor’s. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. 10/ December value fell to 72.9. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

7 4.3% 8.7% 72.3 49.8 3.44 1,379 1.4% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Management. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ Standard and Poor’s. 9/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators May 7.4% -1.8 3.3% 4.1% 17.5% -5.8 3.74 2.0% Unemployment

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

percentage points.) ANALYSIS It is relatively straightforward to project the general impact of the proposed tax cut extension on the Pennsylvania economy and tax revenues. Data from the Social Security Administration show that in 2008, Pennsylvania residents and businesses remitted $29.2 billion in OASDI payments to the federal government. 1 Wage data suggest those payments

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SR2017-05.pdf

114 6,844,323 54 3,018,274 2,268 3 Based on the number of homesteads reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education for FY 2015-16 Act 1 Property Tax Reduction Allocations. Philadelphia data adjusted based on information from the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, State Tax Equalization Board, the Philadelphia Department of Revenue and county assessment offices. Computations by the IFO

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REU-2020-02.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to the IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Unemployment Rate 1 3 8 99.3 99.8 101.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Gross Domestic Product 7

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REU-2019-12.pdf

Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3 2 95.5 96.8 99.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 Gross Domestic Product 7

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REU-2019-10.pdf

June 2019. Cigarette 98.4 92.9 5.5 353.4 356.5 -3.1 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3 4 89.8 93.2 95.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 Gross Domestic Product 7

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PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

OFFICE July 2, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Bryan Cutler President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 110 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

OFFICE June 26, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Bryan Cutler President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 110 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the The Impact of Demographics on General Fund Revenues and Expenditures 2016 Pennsylvania Data User Conference May 12, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis 64.0% 64.5% 62.7% 0.5% ‐1.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey; Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, Center for Workforce Information & Analysis. 15 PA Labor Force Participation Rates 12.May.2016 

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PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

OFFICE October 8, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

815 3.0% Other (debt related) $855 3.1% Total $27,578 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 8 19.May.2017 Reliance on Property Tax Varies District Group FY 14-15 Property Tax Collections the school districts with the greatest reliance on the property tax. There are 125 school districts in each group. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 9 Raise income tax rate (3.07%).  Broad tax base that grows with state economy. 

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OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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NGPR-2019Q4.pdf

6,123.4 6,821.5 11.4% Production Trends For the fourth quarter of 2019, recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) show that total natural gas production volume was 1,776.0 billion cubic feet (bcf and 4 display recent trends in well counts. Figure 3 shows the quarterly history of the inventory of wells in Pennsylvania. Well inventory includes horizontal wells that are in the “Shut In” or “Spud, Not Completed” categories from Table 4. These

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NGPR-2019Q3.pdf

4,472.5 5,041.5 12.7% Production Trends For the third quarter of 2019, recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) show that total natural gas production volume was 1,714.7 billion cubic feet (bcf and 4 display recent trends in well counts. Figure 3 shows the quarterly history of the inventory of wells in Pennsylvania. Well inventory includes horizontal wells that are in the “Shut In” or “Spud, Not Completed” categories from Table 4. These

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NGPR-2019Q2.pdf

2,901.4 3,324.3 14.6% Production Trends For the second quarter of 2019, recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) show that total natural gas production volume was 1,668.9 billion cubic feet (bcf and 4 display recent trends in well counts. Figure 3 shows the quarterly history of the inventory of wells in Pennsylvania. Well inventory includes horizontal wells that are in the “Shut In” or “Spud, Not Completed” categories from Table 4. These

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NewsStand_2019_September.pdf

September 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Lower Mortgage Payments Bolster Disposable Income According to the CoreLogic Insight Blog, typical mortgage is lower for the second cohort, but was able to rule out health issues and incarceration as potential fac- tors. Pennsylvania Claims Title of Most Diverse State Economy Bloomberg recently released an Economic Diversity Index for the nation, based on gross

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Philadelphia 2018: The State of the City The PEW Charitable Trusts released a report on Philadelphia that shows bullish economic trends since the start of the year. The city accounts for roughly 12% of the total Pennsylvania population. Net job gains continue to increase at a faster rate than the nation as a whole and home sales

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

The reduction in realty transfer tax was caused by a $15.0 million increase in the annual transfer to the Pennsylvania Housing Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement Fund. July non-tax collections increased by $2.8 million (9.1 percent) from the in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate that will be published in August 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

Fund collections exceeded estimate by $366 million, due largely to the receipt of $200 million from the lease of the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex. This transfer was included in the IFO’s official estimate, but was not anticipated until April/May published in December 2017. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections FYTD Collections MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Unemployment Rate 1 4

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

IN WAGE INCOME Wages and salaries earned by workers are an integral part of the state and national economies. For Pennsylvania, wage income ($308.2 billion) comprised nearly one half (48.4%) of total personal income in 2015. 1 Wage earners labor market will translate into further acceleration of average wage growth, and possibly higher real and nominal economic growth for Pennsylvania and the U.S. October 2016 Monthly Trends Report Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

Q3 as total PCE ($14.4 trillion) shifted to 66% services and 34% goods. On net, this shift likely enhances Pennsylvania sales tax revenues, as many goods are taxed but services are generally exempt. Consumer Debt Increases from Prior Year, Credit Card Balances Continue to Decline The New York Federal Reserve Bank released consumer debt data for 2020 Q3. Pennsylvania consumer debt declined 0.9% from the prior year to $42,700 per capita due to declines in credit card

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

COVID-19 Revenue Losses Place Some Pennsylvania Municipalities at Risk The University of Pittsburgh released a tool that estimates the potential revenue loss to Pennsylvania municipalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Researchers estimate that revenue losses range from $833 million to $3.4 billion

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf

has become in the economy and expectations. To provide insight, economists look to the labor market and wage growth. For Pennsylvania, data suggest that inflation is now affecting year-over-year (YOY) wage growth (see graph). From 2020 Q2 to 2021 change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-

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IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 12, 2022 The Honorable Francis X. Ryan Pennsylvania House of Representatives 149A East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Ryan: Thank you for your March the latest revenue forecast released by the IFO (January 31, 2022) and long-term projections contained within the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 (November 2021). As with the prior analysis, the estimates

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House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf

fund 75-100% of their unfunded accrued liability (UAL). To date, two employers have made lump sum payments: (1) The Pennsylvania State University ($1.1 billion in 2020) and (2) the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education ($825 million in 2021). • Act 128 of 2020: Enacts administrative and reporting changes for SERS

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Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 11, 2022 The Honorable Seth M. Grove Pennsylvania House of Representatives 7 East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Grove: This letter responds to your this analysis, the IFO utilized three data sources, which are as follows: • Annual report on referendum exceptions, published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE). This report includes amounts of approved exceptions by type and the total amount of used exceptions

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2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf

13/2019 1.7 3.8 5.9 7.8 19.3 OPEIU Office and Professional Employees International Union, Healthcare Pennsylvania 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 11/6/2019 1.0 2.2 3.5 4.6 11.3 PDA Pennsylvania Doctors Alliance 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 11/6/2019 4.9 0.0 0.1 6.5 11

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2001_hr266.pdf

PRINTER'S NO. 2371 THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF PENNSYLVANIA HOUSE RESOLUTION No. 266 Session of 2001 INTRODUCED BY NICKOL, JUNE 21, 2001 INTRODUCED AS NONCONTROVERSIAL RESOLUTION UNDER RULE 35 2001 A RESOLUTION 1 Directing the Public Employee Retirement Commission to undertake 2 a study relating to the nature of Pennsylvania's current 3 defined benefit pension plans versus defined contribution 4 plans. 5 WHEREAS, The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania maintains two

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Pensions

citizens. ... read more HB 303 Summary • Survivor Benefits 314 Hughes Amending Titles 24 (Education) and 71 (State Government) of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes to allow for spousal consent for a retirement public employee choosing how his/her pension benefits are to contributions during this period. Defines the "substitute" role. ... read more SB 1184 Summary • Administrative Operations • Investments 1565 Street Directs the Pennsylvania Office of the State Treasurer, the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS), the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and the

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Pensions

Number 279, Printer's Number 2430). Signed into law on July 5, 2005, Act 16 amended section 112 of the Pennsylvania Municipal Retirement Law (Law), by extending through calendar year 2005 the authority of the Pennsylvania Municipal Retirement System (PMRS) to use interest earnings in excess of regular interest to pay administrative expenses not covered by

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Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf

OFFICE October 2, 2017 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 September 27, 2016 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs

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Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 1 February 2, 2017 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs

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Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 September 27, 2016 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs

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REU-2020-01.pdf

June 2019. Cigarette 64.6 58.0 6.6 618.7 616.5 2.2 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Unemployment Rate 1 3 5 96.8 99.3 99.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Gross Domestic Product 7

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REU-2019-11.pdf

Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3 8 93.2 95.5 96.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 Gross Domestic Product 7

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Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf

717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Vincent Hughes Senate of Pennsylvania 545 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Hughes: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal IFO on school district property taxes, the analysis finds the following: 2  There are 3.4 million properties in Pennsylvania that would qualify as homestead properties. 3  The statewide average school district property tax paid by eligible homeowners is

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 12, 2019 The Honorable Robert M. Tomlinson Senate of Pennsylvania 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Tomlinson: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal base rebate of $175. According to data from the American Community Survey, there are an estimated 152,500 homeowners in Pennsylvania that would be newly eligible for the base rebate as a result of this expansion. 2 Table 1 (next page

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

and employer contributions to pension accounts. However, it does not include capital gains income. Population Growth From 2017 to 2020, Pennsylvania’s population contracted at an average rate of 0.03% per annum. Figure 1 displays outcomes for all counties. At Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2017 to 2020, 59 Pennsylvania counties recorded personal income gains that exceeded inflation (1.4% per annum), which implies real income gains. Personal income includes

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RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf

on state employment and labor force participation rates (i.e., the share of residents working or actively seeking employment). For Pennsylvania, data for December 2021 show that payroll employment fell by 280,000 (-4.6%) compared to December 2019 and labor a significant factor that drives both outcomes. However, the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that for Pennsylvania, younger workers in the 22-24 and 25-34 age cohorts recorded the largest reduction in relative payroll employment levels

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the Town Hall Meeting on Pension Reform Background for the Pension Debate Pennsylvania NewsMedia Association Foundation Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry March 26, 2015  Role of the Independent Fiscal Office.  Snapshots of the major

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate FYTD Revenues Through May

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 10:20am - 11:00am Review of Department of Corrections and Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole Plan John Wetzel, Secretary, Department of Corrections Christopher Oppman, Deputy Secretary of Administration, DOC Bret Bucklen, Ph.D, Director of Planning, Research & Statistics, DOC Nicolette Bell, Special Assistant to the Secretary, DOC Leo Dunn, Chairman, Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole 11:00am - 11:30am Review of Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission Plan Richard D. Steele, Executive

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PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 10:20am - 11:00am Review of Department of Corrections and Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole Plan John Wetzel, Secretary, Department of Corrections Christopher Oppman, Deputy Secretary of Administration, DOC Bret Bucklen, Ph.D, Director of Planning, Research & Statistics, DOC Nicolette Bell, Special Assistant to the Secretary, DOC Leo Dunn, Chairman, Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole 11:00am - 11:30am Review of Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission Plan Richard D. Steele, Executive

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NGPR-2018Q4.pdf

5,363.8 6,123.3 14.2% Production Trends For the fourth quarter of 2018, recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) show that total natural gas production volume was 1,650.7 billion cubic feet (bcf and 4 display recent trends in well counts. Figure 3 shows the quarterly history of the inventory of wells in Pennsylvania. Well inventory includes horizontal wells that fall into the “Shut In” or “Spud, Not Completed” categories. These are wells that

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NGPR-2018Q3.pdf

3,961.6 4,471.5 12.9% Production Trends For the third quarter of 2018, recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) show that total natural gas production volume was 1,570.1 billion cubic feet (bcf and 4 display recent trends in well counts. Figure 3 shows the quarterly history of the inventory of wells in Pennsylvania. Well inventory is comprised of horizontal wells that fall into the “Shut In” or “Spud, Not Completed” categories. These are

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NGPR-2018Q2.pdf

2,636.3 2,899.2 10.0% Production Trends For the second quarter of 2018, recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) show that total natural gas production volume was 1,455.8 billion cubic feet (bcf and 4 display recent trends in well counts. Figure 3 shows the quarterly history of the inventory of wells in Pennsylvania. Well inventory is comprised of horizontal wells that fall into the “Shut In” or “Spud, Not Completed” categories. These are

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NGPR-2018Q1.pdf

1,311.9 1,441.2 9.9% Production Trends For the first quarter of 2018, recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) show that total natural gas production volume was 1,441.2 billion cubic feet (bcf and 4 display recent trends in well counts. Figure 3 shows the quarterly history of the inventory of wells in Pennsylvania. Well inventory is comprised of horizontal wells that fall into the “Shut In” or “Spud, Not Completed” categories. These are

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2018-2 January 2018 2017 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the 500 Conservation Districts/Commission 7,500 7,500 7,545 7,643 7,742 Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. Estimates for CY 2017 by the IFO. 1 Housing Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement Fund. The estimated amount

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office January 2017 1 Research Brief 2017-1 January 2017 2016 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the 500 Conservation Districts/Commission 5,000 7,500 7,500 7,545 7,500 Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. Estimates for CY 2016 by the IFO. 1 Housing Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement Fund. exempt after remitting

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

a metric that quanti Ðies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Since 2012, Pennsylvania has imposed an annual impact fee on unconventional natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar 500 10,500 Conservation Districts/Commission 5,000 7,500 7,500 7,500 Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. CY 2015 estimates by the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice. 1 Housing Affordability and Rehabilitation Enhancement Fund. 2011

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

August 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Women Drive 80% of Job Growth in Health Care since 2000 On August 14 summer, national and regional prices are at the lowest levels in several years due to continued gains in nationwide production. Pennsylvania, the nation’s second-largest producer of natural gas, produced more gas in the second quarter (April to June) than

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

casino license. The estimate assumed one bid ($7.5 million) would have occurred during the September auction held by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board. The next large collection month is December, when the fourth CNIT estimated payment for tax year 2019 4 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

June 2019. Cigarette 102.6 101.7 0.9 153.3 159.2 -5.9 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3 0 98.2 98.4 89.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

were $154 million (-4.7 percent) below estimate due to the lack of a funds transfer ($200 million) from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA). The transfer was included in the updated official estimate per Act 44, but was Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Unemployment Rate 1 4

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Unemployment Rate 1 4 2% 8.1% 5.9% n.a. -1.2% 8.9% 6.5% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 Gross Domestic Product 8

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Unemployment Rate 1 4 5% 9.2% 8.1% n.a. -3.9% -1.2% 8.9% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 Gross Domestic Product 8

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

published in December 2017. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections FYTD Collections MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Unemployment Rate 1 4 4% 9.5% 9.2% n.a. 3.9% -3.9% -1.2% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 Gross Domestic Product 8

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

the qualified manufacturing innovation and reinvestment deduction shall be applied after the apportionment of multi-state income to Pennsylvania. Effective for tax years beginning January 1, 2021. Prior Law The deduction was previously applied prior to apportionment of multi-state income to Pennsylvania. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2021-22 corporate net income tax revenues by $23.9 million. Sales and

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

Opportunity Zones (Act 13) The act provides that “net gains”, “net losses” and “dividends” for purposes of the Pennsylvania personal income tax (PIT) shall not include gains, income or losses which are excluded from tax under the provisions of the Federal Marketplace Sales (Act 13) The act requires marketplace sellers with annual sales of at least $100,000 in Pennsylvania to collect and remit sales tax (conform to the South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc. U.S. Supreme Court decision) and removes the

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over- year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf

year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf

year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf

year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf

year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over- year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf

year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over- year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf

year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over- year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf

year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over- year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region

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Letter_to_JSGC.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 March 13, 2017 Mr. Glenn Pasewicz Executive Director Joint State Government Commission 108 Finance Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear IFO) to provide assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. Based on discussions with your office, the IFO agreed to provide technical analysis and text necessary to

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

Economic Outlook And Property Tax Update Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials November 16, 2021 Two Parts Overview of IFO Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Will decline not as bad as anticipated | stimulus ▪ SAWW at record high | elevated by 2021 wage growth November 16, 2021 1 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update November 16, 2021 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

1.84 2.33 2.91 2.68 Non-Financial Corp. Profits -0.9% -5.4% 1.2% 10.7% ---- Pennsylvania Real GDP 2.0% 1.1% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% Wages-Salaries 4.0% 1.3% 4.0% 4.2% 3.4% 2.2% 3.2% Wages-Salaries 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.2% Pennsylvania Real GDP 0.7% 4.0% 3.2% 2.5% --- Wages-Salaries 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 4.2%

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

1 Inflation’s Impact on the Pennsylvania Economy, Budget and Pensions House Majority Policy Committee Hearing on Inflation June 8, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office to 4.5% for 2023. Real Average Hourly Earnings Due to inflation, the real value of average hourly earnings for Pennsylvania payroll workers contracted by 3.8% in April 2022 relative to the prior year (see next page). (For the U

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

economic development topics. She is a staff liaison to NCSL’s Labor and Economic Development Standing Committee and to the Pennsylvania General Assembly. Prior to NCSL, Maher served as a nonpartisan policy analyst for the city of Philadelphia. She received her rates recover ▪ But permanent job loss remains ~350k No further COVID variants that warrant mitigation efforts November 15, 2021 4 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update November 15, 2021 5 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22 Welcome Matthew Knittel | Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Overview, Demographic and Economic Outlook inflation 1.1% real wage increase also known as a “flat line” Real GDP Growth Demographic Outlook Projections from the Pennsylvania State Data Center Official State Demographer Based on 2015 U.S. Census Estimates 11/15/2016 7 Three Demographic Takeaways

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 4, 2022 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September 2011 Nearly all states have a fiscal office replace with income and sales tax? ▪ Tax burden rankings: how does PA compare to border states? March 4, 2022 3 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update March 4, 2022 4 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 19, 2021 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September 2011 Nearly all states have a fiscal office replace with income and sales tax? ▪ Tax burden rankings: how does PA compare to border states? February 19, 2021 3 Pennsylvania Demographics February 19, 2021 4 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Annual Growth 2015 2020 2025 2030 15-20

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Pensions

Independent Fiscal Office Issued by the Public Employee Retirement Commission Funding and Reforming Public Employee Retirement Systems (2013) Divestment and Pennsylvania's Public Employee Retirement Systems (2007) Issues Associated with Extending Commonwealth-Subsidized Healthcare Coverage to the Surviving Spouses of Certain Employees (2006) Public Pension Policy and Funding Considerations Associated with the Implementation of a Statewide Volunteer Firefighter Retirement System in Pennsylvania (2004) Deferred Retirement Option Plans (2002) Selected Issues Related to Governmental Defined Benefit & Defined Contribution Pension Plans (2002) House Resolution

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Pensions

Senate Bill Number 928, Printer's Number 1923). Signed into law on July 2, 2010, Act 44 created the Protecting Pennsylvania's Investments Act, mandating divestiture by the State Treasurer, the Public School Employees' Retirement System and the State Employees' Retirement Retirement Code to permit the Board of Trustees to exempt certain sensitive investment information from immediate public disclosure under the Pennsylvania Right-to-Know Law. Act 2006 - 148 (Senate Bill 592, Printer's Number 2044). Signed into law on November 9

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SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf

This update provides an overview of statewide school district (SD) property tax collections as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and an outlook for future collections based on the latest available data and economic projections by current-year taxes collected in FY 2020-21. The base index is calculated by averaging the percentage increase in the Pennsylvania statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) and the employment cost index (ECI) for elementary/secondary schools. The SAWW is reported by

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RTR-2015-04.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.0 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2015-03.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.3 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2015-02.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.74 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2015-01.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.4 billion in General Fund revenues in January, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-12.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.7 billion in General Fund revenues in December, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-11.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.7 billion in General Fund revenues in November, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-10.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues in October, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-09.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.6 billion in General Fund revenues in September, an increase of in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-08.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For the second month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $1.8 in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-07.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For the first month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $2.2 in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-06.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.82 billion in General Fund revenues for June, an increase of in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-05.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.86 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-04.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $3.42 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-03.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.22 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-02.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.65 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2014-01.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.36 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2013-12.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.39 billion in General Fund revenues for December, a decrease in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2013-11.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.70 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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RTR-2013-10.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.09 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

term | hiring slows but still positive ▪ Stock market and home sales (not prices) continue to contract May 23, 2022 2 Pennsylvania Economic Forecast May 23, 2022 3 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 1 based on withholding revenues. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Monies to Pennsylvania May 23, 2022 5 2020 2021 2022 Total Federal Pandemic Unemployment (FPUC) $16.2 $8.8 $0.1 $25.0

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Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf

Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.43 billion in General Fund revenues in compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Aggregate Periods Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period

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Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.04 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Aggregate Periods Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.68 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Periods Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.03 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.15 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.69 billion in General Fund revenues for June, a decline of in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For July, the first month of fiscal year 2013-14, the Commonwealth collected $1 in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf

Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.84 billion in General Fund revenues in compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Aggregate Periods Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.63 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decline in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.44 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Periods Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.76 billion in General Fund revenues in August, a decrease in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf

Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.8 billion in General Fund revenues in compared to the same period in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Aggregate Periods Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period

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Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $3.59 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase in the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

2013 Revenue Conference Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Presentation Overview Economic Outlook o Changes to forecast. o Consumer spending is crucial – primary driver of economic growth. Revenue Forecast Outlook for rest of fiscal year and next fiscal year. Discussion and questions 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 2 Pennsylvania Forecast 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 3 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of

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Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf

717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 19, 2019 The Honorable Doug Mastriano Senate of Pennsylvania 172 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Mastriano: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program. 1 The analysis uses data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). 2 The estimates apply to senior

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Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf

717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE August 16, 2019 The Honorable Mario Scavello Senate of Pennsylvania 20 East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Scavello: This letter responds to your request that the to exceed actual school district property taxes paid. The table below displays estimates for (1) the number of homeowners in Pennsylvania that would receive a rebate based on the aforementioned income and age categories, (2) the funds necessary to provide the

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RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf

employment shifting across industries (i.e., leaving a low-wage job for a higher one). To examine wage trends for Pennsylvania, the graph below uses total wage data through 2021 Q2 published by the BEA. Those data are extended based on Q4 is wages gains and, to a lesser extent, signing bonuses. If those quarterly growth rates are accurate, then total Pennsylvania wages will grow by slightly over 8% for the full calendar year, the strongest rate since 1979. That rate is

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RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf

by economy-wide inflation as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). To examine this issue for Pennsylvania workers, Table 1 reproduces the methodology used by the BLS using Pennsylvania earnings and CPI-U data. The earnings data use average hourly earnings for private sector employees. Those amounts are deflated

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Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 Date and Time: Thursday, November 13, 2014; 1:30 Presenter: Daniel White, Senior Economist Moody’s Analytics Presentation on two topics that influence the long-term economic outlook for Pennsylvania: (1) the composition of job creation; and (2) trends in household formation. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

March 13, 2020 Property Tax Update Pennsylvania School Boards Association March 13, 2020 School District Revenues: FY 2017-18 March 13, 2020 2 Source Amount Percent Property 4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies include contributions to PSERS ($2.3 billion). Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Growth Rate of School Property Tax to Increase March 13, 2020 3 0.0% 1.0% 2

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Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf

income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). For all counties, the property tax burden reflects the income metric used.) A rank of 1 indicates the highest property tax burden in the state. Notable results include: • Pennsylvania residents paid $21.5 billion in property taxes statewide, which represented 2.7% of total income. 2,3 • Monroe County

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

2,000 $3,000 $4,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $ Millions Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014. General Fund Appropriations SERS Millions Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 Annual Increase Cumulative Increase from FYE 2015 General Fund - Annual and Cumulative Increases Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014.  Proposed legislation: • Senate

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook INITIAL REVENUE ESTIMATE FISCAL YEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May 1, 2018 Today’s presentation.  PA economy: growth appears to accelerate recently 34,501 Total Revision -$244 JUA Transfer (Act 44) -200 All Other -44 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. JUA is Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association. May.01.2018 4 Economic Outlook May.01.2018 5 PA wage growth accelerates. 

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PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf

Contribution Rate. Includes all funds. 2 SERS 2020 employer contributions include $1.1 billion prepayment in unfunded liability from The Pennsylvania State University. 3 SERS 2021 employer contributions include $825 million prepayment in unfunded liability from The Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education. Pension Funding as Share of Total General Fund Revenues July 13, 2021 2 FYE SERS

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf

PBB Agency Highlights Pennsylvania Department of Education Department of Agriculture Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 26, 2022 Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) January 26, 2022 1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020-21) January 26, 2022 2

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf

PBB Overview and Agency Highlights Pennsylvania State Police Department of Military & Veterans Affairs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 28, 2021 Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) April 28, 2021 1 PSP Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2019-20) April 28, 2021 2 FTEs

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NGPR-2019Q1.pdf

1,443.4 1,655.4 14.7% Production Trends For the first quarter of 2019, recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) show that total natural gas production volume was 1,655.4 billion cubic feet (bcf and 4 display recent trends in well counts. Figure 3 shows the quarterly history of the inventory of wells in Pennsylvania. Well inventory includes horizontal wells that are in the “Shut In” or “Spud, Not Completed” categories from Table 4. These

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NGPR-2017Q4.pdf

the top-ten producing states, Louisiana, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska, Oklahoma and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Three states (Texas, Wyoming and Colorado) registered declines. Figure 3 displays the CY 2017 1 Texas 8,799.5 8,133.8 7,932.5 1.6% -7.6% -2.5% 2 Pennsylvania 4,813.0 5,313.3 5,458.0 13.0% 10.4% 2.7% 3 Alaska 3,175.3

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NGPR-2017Q3.pdf

ten producing states, Louisiana, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first eight months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Four states (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Colorado) registered declines. Figure 3 displays the 2016 2017 1 Texas 8,799.5 8,133.8 5,178.3 1.6% -7.6% -6.4% 2 Pennsylvania 4,813.0 5,313.3 3,595.6 13.0% 10.4% 1.0% 3 Alaska 3,175.3

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NGPR-2017Q2.pdf

top-ten producing states, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first five months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Four states (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Colorado) registered declines. Figure 3 displays the 2016 2017 1 Texas 8,801.3 8,099.2 3,184.1 1.6% -8.0% -7.8% 2 Pennsylvania 4,813.0 5,264.0 2,245.8 13.0% 9.4% 2.0% 3 Alaska 3,175.3

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NGPR-2016Q4.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless 1 Texas 8,143.5 8,299.5 8,659.2 8,801.3 8,120.0 -7.7% 2 Pennsylvania 2,256.7 3,259.0 4,257.7 4,813.0 5,278.1 9.7% 3 Alaska 3

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NGPR-2016Q3.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless 1 Texas 8,143.5 8,299.5 8,659.2 8,801.3 5,493.8 -6.8% 2 Pennsylvania 2,256.7 3,259.0 4,257.7 4,813.0 3,524.2 11.4% 3 Alaska 3

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NGPR-2016Q2.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except 1 Texas 8,143.5 8,299.5 8,663.3 8,763.4 3,453.2 -4.7% 2 Pennsylvania 2,256.7 3,259.0 4,214.6 4,768.9 2,201.5 12.8% 3 Alaska 3

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NGPR-2016Q1.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except 1 Texas 8,143.5 8,299.5 8,663.3 8,763.4 1,379.8 -1.8% 2 Pennsylvania 2,256.7 3,259.0 4,214.6 4,768.9 880.9 14.4% 3 Alaska 3,164

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

March 2020 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Outlook for Regional Manufacturing Unclear The New York Federal Reserve released its March 2020 S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released updated payroll employment data for states and met- ropolitan areas. The revision increased average Pennsylvania payroll employment by 15,900 jobs for calendar year 2019. The following sectors recorded notable increases due to the revision

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Early Data Show PA Economy Had Robust Growth in 2018 Q3 Four real-time data sources suggest that the Pennsylvania economy recorded robust growth for the third quarter of 2018. Based on non-motor sales tax collections, taxable consumer and

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Student Loan Debt Continues to Climb in 2018 Q3 On November 16, the Federal Reserve Bank of New of Economic Analysis released preliminary state real Gross Domestic Product data for 2018 Q2. On a quarterly annualized basis, the Pennsylvania economy expanded by 3.6%. That rate is con- siderably higher than the prior two quarters: 2017 Q4 (0.1%

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News New Data Show Strong PA Labor Market On May 23, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state which all published state employment and wage income trends will be based. The data show a clear strengthening of the Pennsylvania labor market through 2017 in terms of net job gains. The average level of annualized net job gains during the

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Ranks 19 th in Real GDP Growth for 2018 Q1 On July 24, the U.S. Bureau of June 21, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released Personal Income data for 2018 Q1. The data show that Pennsylvania ranked 12 th across all states for year-over-year growth in Personal Income, with a growth rate of 3

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Impact Fee to Use Higher Fee Schedule for CY 2018 Final futures data for CY 2018 reveal that 2018 Q3 On November 27, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released purchase-only index data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylvania, seasonally adjusted data show that third quarter home prices grew by 1.8% on a quarterly annualized basis. Pennsylvania home

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Retail Sales Strong in PA and U.S. On August 15, the U.S. Commerce Department released data that in consumer spending for clothing and restaurants. (The retail data exclude spend- ing on services.) Recent sales tax data from Pennsylvania also suggest strong consumer spending. For May to July, sales tax collections increased by 7.5% from the same time

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

exceed births.  Heavily dependent on international migration. Demographics: Short- and Long-Term Issues Past, Present and Future Trends Source: Pennsylvania State Data Center with adjustments by the IFO. -0.9% 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% -0.1% -0.3% age 65 and older. PIT is personal income tax. SUT is sales-use tax. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center with adjustments and calculations by the IFO. 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Unemployment Rate 1 4 7 101.4 98.8 98.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Unemployment Rate 1 4 6% 9.2% 10.4% n.a. 25.7% 10.7% 3.9% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 Gross Domestic Product 8

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

4% Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Unemployment Rate 1 4 0% 8.6% 9.2% n.a. 13.5% 25.7% 10.7% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 Gross Domestic Product 8

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

Dollar amounts are in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Unemployment Rate 1 4 4% 10.0% 8.6% n.a. 16.6% 13.5% 25.7% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 Gross Domestic Product 8

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

62 46 16 34.5% 3 4.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. Actual Estimate MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Unemployment Rate 1 4 8% 11.4% 10.0% n.a. 2.3% 16.6% 13.5% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 Gross Domestic Product 8

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

S. Census Bureau. Data through April 2016. Note: Data are seasonally adjusted and exclude motor vehicles and parts. United States Pennsylvania Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Unemployment Rate 1 4 3% 15.1% 14.1% n.a 10.4% 25.9% 31.2% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 Gross Domestic Product 8

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

beginning after December 31, 2022 and is projected to reduce FY 2022-23 PIT estimated revenues by $1.5 million. Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Program (Act 53) The act provides for a new refundable PIT credit for eligible taxpayers years beginning after December 31, 2021. Based on 2019 data published by the Internal Revenue Service for the state of Pennsylvania, this provision is projected to reduce FY 2022-23 PIT withholding revenues by $12.1 million and increase PIT refunds

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over- year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

on deaths of despair) or as low as 27,644 (quick recovery, lowest impact of unemployment on deaths of despair). Pennsylvania reported 8,045 deaths of despair in 2018 and under the middle scenario could face an additional 2,778 deaths year growth rate, domestic profits only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate

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Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf

pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data for July 2021, Pennsylvania payroll jobs continue to recover from the impact of the pandemic. For July, the computed year-over-year (YOY) change Average Weekly Claims (000s) Total Monthly Amount ($ millions) For this month, the update includes a new table that compares the Pennsylvania payroll jobs recovery to border states and the U.S. average. The data compare non-seasonally adjusted employment levels for

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jackson ppt.pdf

US and Pennsylvania Economic Outlook Tom Jackson, Senior Economist, U.S. Regional Economics January 18, 2012 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this Performing Better than US Since Start of Recession 8 4 5 6 8 9 10 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Pennsylvania United States © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

 Fairness, part 3: think about intergenerational equity.  Simplicity/transparency: avoids public antagonism  Competitiveness: don’t stick out. Pennsylvania state and local taxes are regressive. Consumption and Property Taxes Drive Tax Regressivity General Sales Taxes — 0.5% 1.0% 5% 3.0% 3.5% Low 20% 2nd 20% Mid 20% 4th 20% Nxt 15% Next 4% Top 1% Is Pennsylvania a High-Tax State? Depends Who You Ask  PA taxes on PA residents, as share of PA income: 18th

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

Hearing on Impact of Minimum Wage Increase in Pennsylvania House Commerce Committee February 16, 2021 Matthew Knittel | Director | Independent Fiscal Office Good morning Chairman Roae, Chairman Galloway and members g., clothing stores) and certain subsectors that have expanded.  The third table shows the impact from COVID-19 on Pennsylvania job losses across age groups. Preliminary data show that younger workers were disproportionately impacted. Those workers were employed in the

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

income tax revenues, and nearly all of that impact should manifest itself in the final payments over the coming months. Pennsylvania Economy The state economy seems to be in a good position, with the latest Philadelphia CPI-U reading running low 2% in latest quarter). Moreover, median existing home values increased by 4.4% last year, while total mortgage debt of Pennsylvania consumers was flat (includes home equity loans). Overall, these data suggest sound economic fundamentals and potential for further expansion into

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP), Independent State Stores Union (ISSU), Office & Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU) Healthcare Pennsylvania , Pennsylvania Doctors Alliance (PDA), Pennsylvania Liquor Enforcement Association (PLEA), Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 668, SEIU Healthcare, United Food & Commercial

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County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf

income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). For all counties, the property tax burden reflects income metric used.) A rank of 1 indicates the highest property tax burden in the state. Notable results include:  Pennsylvania residents paid $21.4 billion in property taxes statewide, which represented 2.9% of total income. 2  Monroe County

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

household income level. 1,2 These data show that in 2018, there were 3.48 million owner-occupied households in Pennsylvania. Those households paid an average of $3,457 in property taxes, or 3.4 percent of total household income. This includes all types of property taxes: school district, county and municipal. Based on property tax collection data reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), the IFO estimates that 70 percent of total

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2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 Date and Time: Wednesday, December 9, 2015; 2:00 affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures and revenues over the next five fiscal years. Guest Presenter: Ray Landis, Advocacy Manager AARP Pennsylvania Presentation on retirement insecurity and the challenges facing Baby Boomers as they retire. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 27, 2021 The Honorable Jake Corman The Honorable Bryan Cutler President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 350 Main Capitol Building 110 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf

OFFICE November 11, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Bryan Cutler President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 110 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx

of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Figure 4.2 Annual Growth Rates for Figure 4.2 Fiscal Personal Sales School Regional Nominal Year of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Creator: Matthew Knittel LastModifiedBy: MJR Created: 2013-10-21T14:35:35Z Modified: 2013-10-22T14:00:10Z

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SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

forecast error that is within one percentage point of actual revenue collections is considered a solid forecast. For Pennsylvania, a one percent error would imply a roughly $320 million difference from actual revenues. Fiscal Year 2012-13 The difference between actual including the Mary forecast, were affected by the non- receipt of an assumed $200 million transfer from the Pennsylvania Joint Underwriter’s Association (included in non-tax). Summary For two of the five fiscal years, the IFO official estimate has been

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

is temporary and peaks in late summer 2021 ▪ No major correction in stock or housing markets May 26, 2021 2 Pennsylvania Economic Forecast May 26, 2021 3 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.4% -4 only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by IFO. Federal Monies to Pennsylvania May 26, 2021 5 CY 2020 CY 2021 Total Federal Pandemic Unemployment (FPUC) $16.2 $7.6 $23.8 Pandemic

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf

estimate was -$841 million, or -2.7% of actual General Fund revenues. If the scheduled $200 million transfer from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA, Act 85 of 2016) that was not received is excluded, then the adjusted difference million, but with the enactment of the federal American Rescue Plan in March of 2021 (roughly $25 billion for the Pennsylvania economy), actual revenues outperformed even that estimate by $1,955 million, or 4.8%. Continued strength in consumer spending and

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

estimate was -$841 million, or -2.7% of actual General Fund revenues. If the scheduled $200 million transfer from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA, Act 85 of 2016) that was not received is excluded, then the adjusted difference 2020-21 state budget. Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 4 Rescue Plan in March of 2021 (roughly $25 billion for the Pennsylvania economy), actual revenues outperformed even that estimate by $1,955 million, or 4.8%. Continued strength in consumer spending and

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

6 PA April Payroll Jobs Fall by 1.04 Million May 26, 2020 7 YOY Growth, U.S. YOY Growth, Pennsylvania Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Feb Mar Apr Total 1.5% 1.6% 0.8% -12.9% 0.7% 1 Labor Statistics. Some Subsectors Hit Hard, but a Few Gain May 26, 2020 8 YOY Growth, U.S. YOY Growth, Pennsylvania Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Feb Mar Apr Full-Service Restaurants 1.6% 2.5% -2.8% n.a. -2

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf

230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 12, 2019 The Honorable Robert M. Tomlinson Senate of Pennsylvania 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Tomlinson: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal to a $1,000 supplemental rebate. According to data from the American Community Survey, there are 152,500 homeowners in Pennsylvania that would be newly eligible for the base rebate as a result of this expansion. 2 Table 2 displays the

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2016 to 2019, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.02% per annum. Figure 1 displays outcomes for all counties. At Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2016 to 2019, nearly all Pennsylvania counties (except Cameron County) recorded personal income gains that exceeded inflation (1.5% per annum), which implies real income gains

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RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf

they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2016 to 2018, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.1 percent per annum. Figure 1 displays general results for all Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2016 to 2018, all Pennsylvania counties recorded personal income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2015 to 2017, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.1 percent per annum. Figure 1 displays general results for all Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2015 to 2017, nearly all Pennsylvania counties recorded personal income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts

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PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf

IFO Background and Recent Releases Pennsylvania School Boards Association Innovation and Policy Institute Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 19, 2022 IFO Background and Major Releases IFO Budgets (PBB) and Tax Credit reviews ▪ Natural Gas: quarterly production reports, annual impact fee collections January 19, 2022 1 Latest Pennsylvania Demographic Forecast January 19, 2022 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-20

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

Overview of School District Property Tax Elimination Presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director January 19, 2017 1/19/2017 1 815 3.0% Other (debt related) $855 3.1% Total $27,578 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. State and Local Tax Burdens 1/19/2017 4 PA US Diff Total State and Local Taxes

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a long-term economic and budget outlook for Pennsylvania, according to director Matthew Knittel. The report, entitled The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, will that expenditure growth has the potential to significantly exceed revenue growth over this period. Other major findings include:  The Pennsylvania economy will continue to expand, but at a lackluster pace. Demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

Pennsylvania Business Council June 22, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. 2014 GDP is preliminary. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rank Pennsylvania 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% 1.7% 13 New York 0.7 2.7 0.6 2.0 8

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the Pennsylvania Public Pensions: Background on the Unfunded Liabilities Rotary Club of Harrisburg April 11, 2016  Role of the Independent Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 SERS PSERS Projected 4/11/2016 14 Pension Projections General Fund ‐ Annual and Cumulative Increases Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2015‐16 to 2020‐21, Independent Fiscal Office, January 2016. $527 $283 $161 $170

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Long-Term Fiscal Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 10, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No 4% Federal $815 3.0% Other $855 3.1% Total $27,578 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Reliance on Property Tax Varies 10.Feb.2017 23 Group FY 14-15 Property Tax Collections Property

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

Wage to $12.00 Presentation for the PA Economy League Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office May 1, 2019 The Pennsylvania Labor Market May 1, 2019 1 Annual Growth Rate, Change or Level 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Net Jobs Created 75 $9.25 $9.25 West Virginia $8.75 $8.75 $8.75 Ohio $8.55 $8.72 $8.94 Pennsylvania $7.25 $7.25 $7.25 20 Other States $7.25 $7.25 $7.25 1 For employers with less

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

2.9% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% Equipment Investment 2.5% -2.5% 5.5% 7.3% 4.4% Pennsylvania Real GDP 2.0% 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% Wages-Salaries 3.9% 1.5% 4.0% 4.5% 4.2% 4.3% 3.9% Equipment Investment 9.5% 8.2% 6.6% 4.8% 3.5% Pennsylvania Real GDP 0.6% 3.6% 3.0% 2.5% --- Wages-Salaries 4.1% 4.0% 3.4% 4.3%

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Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf

Stress Testing Public Pensions: NCSL Legislative Fiscal Directors Pre-Conference Perspective of the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) Mark J. Ryan Deputy Director July 29, 2018  IFO work involving stress testing is connected Does it result in information overload? How will it be used? 7/29/2018 8 Institutionalized Stress Testing? Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 7/29/2018 9

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12, 2018 FY 17-18: revenues are close to estimate.  Gains (PIT

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

Budget and Economic Update Presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office June 11, 2019 Main Themes PA economy performed April Revenue Growth Rates June 11, 2019 9 Personal Income Sales and Use Corporate Net Income Personal Income Federal Conformity? Pennsylvania 31.1% 6.8% 15.5% does not conform New Jersey 56.8% 4.7% n.a. does not conform

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf

Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Review Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board September 28, 2021 PBB Addendum Requests Pennsylvania Department of Transportation ▪ Activity 12 – Administration: Human Resources measures related to career development and recruitment Department of Human Services ▪ Activity homes and (2) Average costs per individual for private care in the community September 28, 2021 1 PBB Addendum Requests Pennsylvania State Police ▪ Activity 2 – Criminal Law Enforcement and Crime Prevention: Percentage of state police troopers involved in direct law enforcement

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf

PBB Agency Highlights Pennsylvania Department of Education Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board March 9, 2022 Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) March 9, 2022 1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020-21) March 9, 2022 2

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf

the Performance-Based Budget Board April 27, 2021 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 3 Agencies ▪ PennDOT | Human Services (Part 2) ▪ Pennsylvania State Police | Military and Veterans Affairs Alternative budget framework driven by performance metrics ▪ Output | efficiency | outcomes | benchmarks | statewide indicators ▪ Link additional resources for new or existing programs ▪ PennDOT REAL ID program ▪ DMVA Keystone State ChalleNGe Academy April 27, 2021 3 Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) April 27, 2021 4 PennDOT Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2019-20) April 27, 2021 5

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PBB-Board-Hearings-Schedule-2019.pdf

11:30 A.M. Hearing Room 1- NOB meetings rescheduled Hearing Room 1- NOB Department of Corrections Tax Credit Reviews: Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Film Production, New Jobs, Historic Parole Preservation Incentive Juvenile Court Judges' Commission 11:30 A.M. - 1:30 P.M. Pennsylvania Commission on Crime Department of Banking and & Delinquency Securities & Department of General Services Author: RFlaugh CreationDate: 2019-01-22 15

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

22, 2020 6 Large Contraction of April-May Payroll Jobs June 22, 2020 7 YOY Growth, U.S. YOY Growth, Pennsylvania Feb Mar Apr May Feb Mar Apr May Total 1.6% 0.8% -13.3% -11.8% 1.0% -0 Labor Statistics. Some Subsectors Hit Hard, but a Few Gain June 22, 2020 8 YOY Growth, U.S. YOY Growth, Pennsylvania Feb Mar Apr May Feb Mar Apr May Full-Service Restaurants 2.5% -5.3% -65.6% n.a. -1

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novak ppt.pdf

F EDERAL R ESERVE B ANK OF P HILADELPHIA Pennsylvania Economic Outlook Independent Fiscal Office January 18, 2012 Jason Novak Research and Policy Support Manager Half Empty or Half Full only if the tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further employment and spending cuts Gross Domestic Product Pennsylvania * 4-quarter growth rates in real terms Percent -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Personal Income GDP Personal

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NGPR-2017Q1.pdf

top-ten producing states, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first two months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Mexico recorded modest increases. Five states (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Colorado and Wyoming) registered declines. Figure 3 displays 2016 2017 1 Texas 8,801.3 8,099.2 1,237.4 1.6% -8.0% -9.8% 2 Pennsylvania 4,813.0 5,264.0 885.9 13.0% 9.4% 0.9% 3 Alaska 3,175.3 3

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

Pennsylvania Fiscal Update National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) December 13, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Who we are. ◦ Established September 2011 12,957 13,209 165 252 0.3% 0.4% Note: thousands of residents. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center with adjustments by IFO. Dec.13.2017 6 PA Economic Growth Rates 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Real Gross Domestic Product Expanded by 2.8% in 2018 Q3 On February 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q3. The data show that Pennsylvania real GDP expanded at a 2.8% rate for 2018 Q3, compared to 3.4% for the U.S. These

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Labor Market Slows in 2019 Q1 On April 19, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state employment of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data for 2018 Q4. For calendar year 2018, the data show that Pennsylvania personal income grew by 3.9%, with two of the larger compo- nents growing by 4.0% (wages and salaries

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

Pennsylvania News Nationwide News (717) 230-8293 | Rachel Carson State Office Building Harrisburg, PA | www.ifo.state.pa.us Could Shale Lead To a Manufacturing Boom in Appalachia? A recent article from Forbes magazine discusses the production of shale gas in Pennsylvania and surrounding states and its potential impact on the economy and communities. The article notes that production from the Utica

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3 4 97.2 100.0 98.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3 8 98.4 97.2 100.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Unemployment Rate 1 4 2 93.8 98.4 97.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3 3 91.2 93.8 98.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3 5 98.3 91.2 93.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Unemployment Rate 1 3 6 97.5 98.3 91.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Unemployment Rate 1 3 1 98.6 97.5 98.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Unemployment Rate 1 3 2 100.1 98.6 97.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Unemployment Rate 1 3 9 96.2 100.1 98.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Unemployment Rate 1 4 2 97.9 96.2 100.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2018-08.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Unemployment Rate 1 3 0 98.2 97.9 95.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Unemployment Rate 1 3 8 98.0 98.2 97.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 Gross Domestic Product 7

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

Sept hospital, college, restaurant extended to Sept ARP at $1,400 per $7.3b General Aid $6.1b General Aid Pennsylvania Cash Income March 31, 2021 6 -$40 -$20 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 wages -$5b business and capital -$8b retirement 818 $13,882 Notes: Production and drilling amounts from DEP. PA spot price is a weighted annual average at major Pennsylvania hubs. NYMEX price is the annual average price of natural gas near-month settlements on the New York Mercantile Exchange

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

of strong stock market performance prior to the outbreak. Gaming tax collections were impacted by the March closure of all Pennsylvania casinos. The impact was roughly $3 million. To date, it does not appear that the forgone in-person table game and will include the revenue outlook under two potential scenarios that are based on the duration of business closures in Pennsylvania. If you would like to be notified when the report is released, please visit www.ifo.state.pa.us to

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Labor_Market_Update_Sept_2021.pdf

pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this fall. Based on the latest data for August 2021, Pennsylvania payroll jobs contracted modestly in August relative to a no-pandemic scenario, as the computed year-over-year (YOY) change reflect the expiration of extra federal UC benefits, the monthly data will provide important insights into the state of the Pennsylvania economy. Labor Market Update September 2021 June July August June July August Total Payroll Employment -389.1 -358.3 -362

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Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Job Gains Remain in Holding Pattern This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.8 billion has been received. Based on the latest data for May 2021, Pennsylvania payroll job creation continues to stagnate, despite the transfer of federal funds. The year-over-year change in payroll jobs

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

Impact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool May 26, 2021.) Despite purchases motivated by the substantial transfer of federal funds, the latest payroll jobs data show that Pennsylvania employment gains have stagnated. The year-over-year change in payroll jobs is nearly identical for the latest three months

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Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Payroll Jobs Record Strong Gains in June This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor potential workers who may re-enter the workforce this summer and fall. Based on the latest data for June 2021, Pennsylvania payroll job creation improved notably relative to prior months. For June, the computed year-over-year change in payroll jobs

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ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

OFFICE September 13, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

Aging and the Pennsylvania Economy Task Force on Private Sector Retirement Security January 25, 2018 Aging Population Has Broad Implications  Pennsylvania undergoing dramatic transformation.  Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade.  Subtle impacts on economic growth and

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IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 16, 2022 The Honorable Francis X. Ryan Pennsylvania House of Representatives 149A East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Ryan: On April 12, 2022, the under this proposal. May 16, 2022 Page 2 School District Cash Balances According to annual financial reports filed with the Pennsylvania Department of Education, the total school district unassigned fund balance for fiscal year ending 2020 was $1.975 billion. For

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays monthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact 2017) • Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2017) • Mid-Year Update FY 2016-17 (January 2017) • PFBC Wage Contract Analysis (February 2017) • Pennsylvania Gaming Trends (February 2017) • Department of Corrections Performance Measures (February 2017) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 4 (March 2017) • ISSU

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office | November 2019 1 Welcome Katherine Loughead | Tax Foundation  Modernizing PA Tax Code as a Strategy for Matt Gardner | Institute for Taxation & Economic Policy  Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office  Pennsylvania demographic, economic and fiscal outlook  Questions for all presenters to be taken at end of session November 14, 2019

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House_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf

Workforce Indicators reports quarterly employment figures by state and various demographic characteristics. The attached table summarizes the latest data for Pennsylvania employment by race and gender. The data show that the COVID-19 pandemic had a disparate impact on employment by Q2 1.0% -3.0% 7.7% 4.2% 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% Impact of COVID-19 on Pennsylvania Workers by Race and Gender Number of Workers (000s) 1 Other includes American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

credits from the prior tax year that they opted to apply to the fourth estimated payment. This shortfall is temporary. Pennsylvania Economy The state economy appears to be operating at full capacity, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% (December 2018 The construction and vetting of those types of measures require significant lead time and numerous interactions with agency staff in Pennsylvania and other states as well. It should be noted that a full PBB system must also include other data and

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FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

OFFICE October 8, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK FY 2017-18 to FY 2022-23 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania NOVEMBER 2017 Welcome Matthew Knittel | Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Balance Sheet, Demographic and Economic Outlook Mark Ryan | Deputy Director growth +1.9% real GDP growth +2.7% inflation +1.4% inflation +2.1% inflation Demographic Outlook Projections from the Pennsylvania State Data Center Adjustments by IFO for 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Three Demographic Trends Unexpected contraction of PA

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22, will be available for download on the office website 2017-18. While expenditures remain at historically high levels, the double-digit annual growth rates are projected to abate.  Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21, will be available for download on the office website to stabilize as net revenues and expenditures each increase at an average rate of 3.7 percent per annum.  Pennsylvania’s economic growth over the next decade is constrained by the projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-

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Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, will be available for download on the office website are outpaced by expenditures, which are projected to grow at an average rate of 4.1 percent per annum. • The Pennsylvania population is expected to grow slowly through FY 2019-20. The projections assume no change in the working age population

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19, provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can for pensions and healthcare inflation continue to drive much of the expenditure growth in the five year projections.  The Pennsylvania economy will expand, but at a moderate pace. Long-term demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 28, 2020 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September 2011 Nearly all states have a fiscal office 4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies include contributions to PSERS ($2.3 billion). Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Income and Property Tax Shares by Income Level February 28, 2020 18 All Homeowners Age 65+ Homeowners

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DOC_Performance_Measures_Final.pdf

o n s Independent Fiscal Office INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 February 23, 2017 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: In September 2016, the Independent states use to implement performance-based budgeting. The report also included a basic “prototype report” that compiled data from the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections (DOC) and other states for the purpose of soliciting feedback from policymakers regarding the form and content

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CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

OFFICE February 26, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

Public Pension Funding Risk: Pennsylvania in the National Context Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Annual Presentation Harrisburg, PA Don Boyd, Director of Fiscal Studies donald.boyd@rockinst.suny.edu November 15

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ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike Turzai President Pro Tempore Speaker Senate of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania House of Representatives 292 Main Capitol Building 139 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Sirs: Section

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

9% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% Real Equip Investment 3.2% -1.3% 4.7% 6.8% 1.7% Pennsylvania Real GDP 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 2.1% Wages-Salaries 4.1% 1.3% 4.0% 2% 4.0% 5.0% 4.8% Real Equip Investment 7.2% 6.4% 5.0% 3.3% 2.7% Pennsylvania Real GDP 0.4% 3.3% 1.7% 2.1% -- Wages-Salaries 3.2% 4.6% 4.6% 4.3%

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

Mid-Year Update MID-YEAR Revenue Update Commonwealth of Pennsylvania January 29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts.  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data and tax reform Expenditures -0.6% -0.2% 0.7% 2.9% Corporate Domestic Profits 0.5% 6.2% 3.1% n.a. Pennsylvania Real GDP 0.3% 2.5% 3.2% n.a. Home Price Index 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% n

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About IFO

B.A. in International Studies from American University. Stacey Knavel Principal Revenue Analyst Formerly employed as a manager in the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue's Bureau of Research, where she coordinated the revenue forecasting process for both the General Fund and participated in shaping many aspects of the Department's tax policy. Ms. Knavel holds a B.S. in Finance from Pennsylvania State University. Karen Maynard Budget Analyst III Ms. Maynard joined the IFO in 2012 and her primary responsibilities include leading

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WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf

Pennsylvania Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends Jesse Bushman – Revenue Analyst July 14, 2020 1 Center for Energy Policy & Management Washington

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

Program Manager National Academy for State Health Policy Annual Presentation The Economic and Budget Outlook Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2012 Health Care Reform: What it Means for States 1 • 25 year old non-profit, non-partisan organization

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Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf

millions. Background  Consistent with the nationwide trend, mergers and acquisitions are causing the number of banks to decline in Pennsylvania.  The numbers of both non-depository businesses and securities- related entities have grown each year over the last five

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx

in $ millions. Background ▪ Consistent with the nationwide trend, mergers and acquisitions are causing the number of banks to decline in Pennsylvania. ▪ The numbers of both non-depository businesses and securities-related entities have grown each year over the last five years

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf

millions. Background  Consistent with the nationwide trend, mergers and acquisitions are causing the number of banks to decline in Pennsylvania.  The numbers of both non-depository businesses and securities- related entities have grown each year over the last five

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Senate_Maj_Policy_Comm_April_13_2021.pdf

Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Pennsylvania Leisure and Hospitality Sector Senate Majority Policy Committee April 13, 2021 Year-Over-Year Change in PA Payroll Employment (000s

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf

for the proposed revenue modifications.) Outyear revenue collections are estimated by applying the growth rates published in the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 (published November 2021). Refund reserves are from the Executive

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SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf

us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 7, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to continue expanding in FY 2015-16,” Knittel said. “However, some of the revenue growth from improved

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

million, or -2.7 percent of actual General Fund revenues. If the scheduled $200 million transfer from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA, Act 85 of 2016) that was not received is excluded, then the adjusted difference is -$641

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

million, or -2.7 percent of actual General Fund revenues. If the scheduled $200 million transfer from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA, Act 85 of 2016) that was not received is excluded, then the adjusted difference is -$641

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

million, or -2.7 percent of actual General Fund revenues. If the scheduled $200 million transfer from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA, Act 85 of 2016) that was not received is excluded, then the adjusted difference is -$641

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

April Revenue Growth Rates May 20, 2019 10 Personal Income Sales and Use Corporate Net Income Personal Income Federal Conformity? Pennsylvania 31.1% 6.8% 15.5% does not conform New Jersey 56.8% 4.7% n.a. does not conform

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Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf

pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 7, 2019 The Honorable Jim Cox Pennsylvania House of Representatives 209 Ryan Office Building Harrisburg, PA 17120-2129 Dear Representative Cox: Thank you for your recent letter

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Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf

717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 6, 2019 The Honorable Mario Scavello Senate of Pennsylvania 20 East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Scavello: This letter responds to a request made by

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RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdf

4 ($939) Note: Amounts exclude $95 bonus, which is received by very low income households (not shown). SNAP Benefits to Pennsylvania Residents May-19 May-22 Change Persons (000s) 1,741 1,843 101 Households (HH, 000s) 938 979 42 Persons

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QRR_2016Q1.pdf

63 All Others 209 205 5 640 641 -2 Miscellaneous Revenues 0 0 0 177 168 10 1 Pennsylvania Lottery. 2 Fiscal Year 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, September 17, 2015. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded

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QRR_2015Q4.pdf

42 All Others 220 221 -1 431 437 -6 Miscellaneous Revenues 0 0 0 177 167 10 1 Pennsylvania Lottery. 2 Fiscal Year 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, September 17, 2015. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded

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QRR_2015Q3.pdf

22 All Others 210 216 -5 210 216 -5 Miscellaneous Revenues 177 167 10 177 167 10 1 Pennsylvania Lottery. 2 Fiscal Year 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates, Independent Fiscal Office, September 17, 2015. 3 Computations are based on the unrounded

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PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf

Actuarial Impact of Act 5 of 2017 Presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association Independent Fiscal Office Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director June 28, 2017 6/28/2017 1 Unfunded Liability

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

based on temporary measures employed in the current year, the forecast incorporates savings based on recent cost containment efforts.  Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

Gen. Assembly): • HB 1776 and SB 76 – Property Tax Reform. • Medicaid Expansion. • Film Tax Credits. • Taxation of Natural Gas in Pennsylvania. • Consolidation of York County School Districts. Other Products and Releases 12.Feb.2015 4 Revenues and Deficits Budget Timelines Year-

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

PBC Policy Roundtable June 12, 2014 Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office How Demographics Impact the Pennsylvania Economy Demographic Outlook o General Trends: past decade and next two. o Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others. o Very

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

14.7 47.6 48.6 52.4 50.6 Average annual growth rates. Values are forecasts for entire year. Pennsylvania Economic Outlook 8.Jun.2016 10 Long‐Term Budget Trends Changing Demographics Impact Longer‐Term Outlook Working Age Population Projected

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the A Look Forward: Pennsylvania’s Economic and Revenue Outlook 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

Realty Transfer 11.3% 7.9% 11.4% 3.6% 6.2% 8.2% -3.3% Growth Rate or Gains Pennsylvania Economics 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Real GDP 4.5% 0

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

November 19, 2018 PA Fiscal Update and Outlook County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania November 19, 2018 1 Three Quick Updates  Demographic projections and outlook (3 slides)  Job creation and the PA

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

 IFO will work with agencies to evaluate and develop performance measures based on a review of current measures in Pennsylvania and other states, including:  Input measures  Output measures  Efficiency measures  Outcome measures  National and state

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Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

9%35.1%20.3%3.9%20.1% Realty Transfer -8.4%7.6%11.3%7.9%11.4%3.6% 6.2% Growth Rate or Change Pennsylvania Economics 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Real GDP (QA) -0.5%3.2% 4.5% 2.5% 2

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS & THE PA ECONOMY PA State Association of Boroughs Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 MATTHEW KNITTEL, DIRECTOR Independent fiscal office August 8, 2018 The big picture: state demographic trends.  Historical

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE The Allegheny Conference on Community Development and The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 4, 2018 June.04.2018 2 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

cents/mcf 1.3% Oklahoma 7.0% 4.6% Texas 7.5% 3.5% West Virginia 5.0% 5.0% Pennsylvania n.a. 9.0% Current Impact Fee n.a. 1.4% Proposed Severance Tax 6.5% 7.6% Note:Analysis

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perez ppt.pdf

states reported real estate transfer taxes coming in on target or above expectations. 4 states—Hawaii, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania—reported transfer taxes below the current forecast.  Miscellaneous  5 states and Puerto Rico saw other miscellaneous taxes performing

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

85+ 334 365 32 9.5% Total 12,803 13,276 473 3.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center. May 24, 2017 4 The Five Generations Age in PA (000s) U.S. 2015 Number Share Share

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf

determination programs report outcome measures to federal partners ▪ Related state programs lag in reporting program metrics January 24, 2022 8 Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission (PHMC) January 24, 2022 9 PHMC Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020-21) January 24, 2022

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PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf

4. In the state benchmarks section of the K-12 Education Activity, add an analysis or cite research that compares Pennsylvania to the average state in terms of the combined state and local funding available to high poverty districts versus low

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PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf

victim services, juvenile justice and delinquency prevention, sheriff and constable training and school safety. January 22, 2019 8 Background  Pennsylvania’s state incarceration rate increased between 2006 and 2016, even though the crime rate decreased. Significant reductions in inmate population

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

time | agencies see last year’s reports  Office of Performance Through Excellence coordinates all meetings January 22, 2020 5 Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) January 22, 2020 6 PEMA Actual Spend and FTEs (2018-19) January 22, 2020 7 FTEs

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

implications for General Fund revenues? ▪ Should we expect a deceleration or possible contraction? June 17, 2021 1 Federal Monies to Pennsylvania June 17, 2021 2 CY 2020 CY 2021 Total Federal Pandemic Unemployment (FPUC) $16.2 $8.0 $24.2 Pandemic

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

December Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director December 9, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data December 9

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

Projecting the Components of the Act 1 Index Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials March 17, 2021 Statewide School Property Tax Growth Rates 2 -2.0% -1.0% 0

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

August Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director August 25, 2021 Latest Quarterly PA Economic Data August 25, 2021 1

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NGPR-2015-2H.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report

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NGPR-2015-1H.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This

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NGPR-2015-09.pdf

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Real State GDP Growth is 2.1% for CY 2018 On May 1, the U.S. Bureau of Economic

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MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf

no Social Security COLA for 2016, and the analysis attributes that result primarily to lower energy costs. It estimates that Pennsylvania personal income would increase by $800 million if Social Security recipients were to receive an average COLA for 2016. Author

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

provision is not expected to impact FY 2020-21 revenues. Category 4 Gaming Auction The act requires the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board (PGCB) to conduct an auction for an additional Category 4 slot machine license within 90 days. Only current slot

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25, 2017 Presentation has three parts.  Economic update. Unexpected broad weakness.  Revenue update

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mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf

by the governor in September. “Lower gasoline prices drive some of the projected revenue increase.” Knittel said. “We anticipate that Pennsylvania households will save between $3.0 and $3.5 billion on gasoline purchases this fiscal year. These savings are expected

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

Mid‐Year Update Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 2015 Revenue Conference Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016. • Forecasts: June 2014 vs. January 2015. • Drop in gas prices: SUT

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MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf

ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 20, 2019 The Honorable Patrick M. Browne Chair, Appropriations Committee Senate of Pennsylvania 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Browne: Thank you for your July 15 th letter that requests

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Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf

An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania May 13, 2013 Based on new information received after the release of its original report on Medicaid expansion, the Independent

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Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf

Demographic and Labor Market Update Lancaster Chamber of Commerce Matthew Knittel, IFO Director October 6, 2021 Pennsylvania Demographics October 6, 2021 1 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change 2010-20 Change 2020-25 2010 2020 2025 Number AAGR

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Labor_Market_Update_October_2021.pdf

Jobs Shortfall Expands in September due to Weak Seasonal Hiring Based on the latest data for September 2021, Pennsylvania payroll jobs contracted relative to a no-pandemic scenario, as the computed year-over-year (YOY) change in payroll jobs

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

Congressional Budget Office Presentation for the Independent Fiscal Office, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2018 Jeffrey Kling Associate Director for Economic Analysis Transparency at CBO For more information, see Congressional Budget Office

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to grow moderately in FY 2017-18,” Knittel said. “Revenue growth will be constrained by non-recurring

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast.  General weakness. All forecasts underperform.  An exception: PA labor market posts solid

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

or realized capital gains in 2012 instead of 2013 to avoid federal tax increases. Depending on the performance of the Pennsylvania economy in the first six months of 2014, the revisions could prove to be conservative. However, marked improvement in jobs

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IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf

through entities. For the current tax year, Section 179 allows full expensing of eligible investments up to $1.08 million. Pennsylvania law only allows $25,000. The IFO estimates a negative revenue impact of approximately $60 million (first full fiscal year

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IFO_Letter_to_the_SCC.pdf

year. The model would account for the type and geographic location of each BMP implemented. If the SCC or the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection determines that the deployment of an environmental model in this manner is not feasible (due to

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IFO ppt.pdf

Wages 4.1% 1.2% 2.8% 4.3% Employment 0.4% -1.1% 0.9% 1.3% Economic Outlook - Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office January 18, 2012 Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Average annual growth rates for the fiscal year

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Update Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | December 3, 2019 Number (000s) Change (000s) Average Ann Growth PA

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. Pennsylvania Payroll Employment Still Lags November 15, 2022 9 Number (000s) 3-Year Change Sector Sept 2019 Sept 2022 Number Percent

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

structural deficit  What has changed? | Why is it worse? Questions taken at end of presentation January 21, 2021 1 Pennsylvania Demographics January 21, 2021 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Annual Growth 2015 2020 2025 2030 15-20

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

less travel/tourism  Acceleration of on-line purchases Key dates to watch  August 21: July jobs report for Pennsylvania  Mid-September: 3 rd PIT estimated payment (first two down ~9% YOY) August 19, 2020 5 IFO and Administration

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf

ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28 Pennsylvania Date and Time RSVP Here Agenda Guest Presenter Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 1:30 PM Please click on the

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DotPlotData.xlsx

services (AFR 4000) minus other expenditures and financing uses (AFR 5000) minus tuition to other SDs minus tuition payments to Pennsylvania charter schools minus tuition payments to nonpublic schools. - The total SD expenditures, AFR 4000 and AFR 5000 data are from

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Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf

Presentation to Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office November 15, 2022 Phillip Swagel Director How CBO Supports the Congress For information about the host

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

labor market. Hiring must increase for an extended period of time before that can occur. For 2014, the IFO projects Pennsylvania wage growth of 3.6 percent, compared to 2.6 percent for 2013. The growth rate can be decomposed into

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Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf

326 Market Street. The session is open to the public. After the briefing, a report discussing the revenue projections and Pennsylvania’s economic outlook will be available on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

16 forecast, and (2) an advance estimate for FY 2016-17. The office also will release an updated report on Pennsylvania’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, originally released on December 9 th , details the economic, demographic and

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ACN_SB1_technical_corrections_2017_06_05.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 June 5, 2017 The IFO made the following technical changes to the Actuarial Note Transmittal for Amendments 01354 and

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2020 PBB Agenda.pdf

Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 9:45 am – 10:15 am Review of Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) Plan David R. (Randy) Padfield, Executive Director, PEMA Bruce Trego, Commissioner, Office of the State Fire

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2019-Pub-2.pdf

years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Katherine Loughead, Tax Foundation: Modernizing Pennsylvania's Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy: Business Taxation and Sustainable

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Pensions

Since 2001 School and State Pension Legislation Enacted Since 2001 PA Public Employee Pension Statutes Public Employee Retirement Laws For Pennsylvania Local Governments (2009) IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Nov 21) PA September job openings increase as state labor market remains exceptionally tight. See https://t.co/wFbjHcreSg • (Nov 15) The IFO released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. A guest presentation by CBO D… • (Nov 14) The IFO will release its long-term demographic, economic and budget outlook for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28 on November 1… Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0 msapplication-TileColor: #ffffff msapplication-config

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Pensions

69, Section 1910, as reenacted and amended 1995, Nov.9, P.L. 350, No. 60, 53 P.S. Section 66910 . • Pennsylvania Municipal Retirement System, act of Feb. 1, 1974, P.L. 30, No. 15, as amended, 53 P.S. Section 891

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