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Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget.

Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget.

Tags: estimates, monthly, quarterly, revenue

Monthly and quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget.

08/31/2021

Monthly and quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget.

08/27/2020

Monthly and quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget.

08/08/2019

MONTHLY AND quarterly REVENUE ESTIMATES

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget.

07/30/2018

Updated Monthly and quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget.

12/21/2017

quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q3

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

11/03/2017

Monthly and quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget.

08/10/2017

quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q2

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

08/02/2017

quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q1

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

05/05/2017

quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q4

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

01/24/2017

quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q3

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.  Fiscal Year 2016-17 2016 Q3 (July to September 2016)

10/27/2016

quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. 

08/24/2016

QRR_2013Q4.pdf

October to December 2013 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and

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NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) from natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to

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NGPR-2019Q1.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office First Quarter 2019 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) First Quarter Calendar Year 2018 2019 Growth 2018 2019 Growth Horizontal 1,441.3 1,653.9 14.7% 1,441.3

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NGPR-2018Q3.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Third Quarter 2018 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2017 2018 Growth 2017 2018 Growth Horizontal 1,323.0 1,567.5 18.5% 3

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QRR_2014Q2.pdf

April to June 2014 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The

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NGPR-2018Q2.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Second Quarter Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2017 2018 Growth 2017 2018 Growth Horizontal 1,321.9 1,454.0 10.0% 2

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NGPR-2018Q1.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office First Quarter 2018 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) First Quarter Calendar Year 2017 2018 Growth 2017 2018 Growth Horizontal 1,309.2 1,439.2 9.9% 1,309.2

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

April to June 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The

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NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) from natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to

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NGPR-2018Q4.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Fourth Quarter 2018 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2017 2018 Growth 2017 2018 Growth Horizontal 1,400.3 1,648.8 17.8% 5,354.3

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QRR_2016Q1.pdf

January to March 2016 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing

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NGPR-2017Q1.pdf

Quarterly Production and Well Counts Independent Fiscal Office 2 First Quarter 2017 Table 2: Number of Wells First Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2017 Growth 2016 2017 Growth Producing Wells

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QRR_2015Q4.pdf

October to December 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing

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QRR_2015Q3.pdf

July to September 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publications detailing

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NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to

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NGPR-2019Q3.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Third Quarter 2019 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year 2018 2019 Growth 2018 2019 Growth Horizontal 1,568.6 1,713.1 9.2% 4,466.1

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NGPR-2019Q2.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Second Quarter 2019 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year 2018 2019 Growth 2018 2019 Growth Horizontal 1,456.3 1,667.2 14.5% 2,897.6

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NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to

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NGPR-2019Q4.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Fourth Quarter 2019 Table 1: Production Volume (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2018 2019 Growth 2018 2019 Growth Horizontal 1,649.0 1,774.5 7.6% 6,115.1

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NGPR-2017Q3.pdf

Quarterly Production and Well Counts 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2016 2017 Number of Producing Wells Production Volume (bcf) Independent Fiscal Office 2 Third Quarter 2017 Table 2: Number of Wells Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2017 Growth 2016 2017 Growth Producing Wells

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QRR_2013Q3.pdf

July to September 2013 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and

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NGPR-2017Q2.pdf

400 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2016 2017 Number of Producing Wells Production Volume (bcf) Quarterly Production and Well Counts Independent Fiscal Office 2 Second Quarter 2017 Table 2: Number of Wells Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2017 Growth 2016 2017 Growth Producing Wells

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NGPR_2020_Q4.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FOURTH QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to

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QRR_2015Q1.pdf

January to March 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The

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QRR_2014Q4.pdf

October to December 2014 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The

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NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to

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NGPR-2017Q4.pdf

Quarterly Production and Well Counts 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016 2017 Number of Producing Wells Production Volume (bcf) Independent Fiscal Office 2 Fourth Quarter 2017 Table 2: Number of Wells Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2016 2017 Growth 2016 2017 Growth Producing Wells Horizontal 7

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NGPR_2021_Q3.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data are presented on a quarterly basis to show recent trends in natural gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to

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QRR_2017Q2.pdf

Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW APRIL TO JUNE Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec-

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QRR_2016Q4.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW OCTOBER TO DECEMBER Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec-

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QRR_2017Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JANUARY TO MARCH Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve‐ nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec‐

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QRR_2017Q3.pdf

Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JULY TO SEPTEMBER Fiscal Year 2017-18 Each fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes monthly breakdowns of its annual esti- mates for the General Fund (page 2), and quarterly breakdowns for the Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund (page 4). The most recent publication detailing these estimates is available

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NGPR-2016Q3.pdf

conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts for the third quarter of 2016 and the calendar year-to-date. These data are current as of November 21, 2016 and pertain only Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Third Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Growth Number of Producing

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NGPR-2016Q4.pdf

conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts for the fourth quarter of 2016 and the calendar year. These data are current as of February 22, 2017 and pertain only to gas Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Fourth Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Growth Number of Producing Wells Horizontal

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NGPR-2016Q1.pdf

conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts for the first quarter of 2016 and the calendar year-to-date. These data are current as of May 20, 2016 and pertain only Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report First Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count First Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Growth Number of Producing

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QRR_2016Q3.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JULY TO SEPTEMBER Fiscal Year 2016-17 INTRODUCTION Each fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual esti- mates for the General Fund (page 2), Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund (page 4

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NGPR-2016Q2.pdf

conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well counts for the second quarter of 2016 and the calendar year-to-date. These data are current as of August 23, 2016 and pertain only Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Second Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Growth Number of Producing

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Reports The IFO publishes monthly reports highlighting the latest economic releases and revenue trends. In addition, the office publishes a quarterly report that reviews the performance of its own revenue estimates. Special reports are prepared at various times throughout the year of the estimate, tax changes affecting General Fund revenues were enacted into law. On July 31, 2012 the IFO published quarterly revenue estimates that adjusted the official revenue estimate for those statutory changes. No other changes were made. All revenue estimates

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

request of members of the General Assembly, provide economic, revenue or fiscal analysis. IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays monthly and Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report. Provides unconventional production volumes and well counts on a quarterly basis. Top producing counties also listed

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

request of members of the General Assembly, provide economic, revenue or fiscal analysis. IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays monthly and Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report. Provides unconventional production volumes and well counts on a quarterly basis. Top producing counties also listed

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

AS PRODUCTION INCREASES Employment in the natural gas industry has been declining in Pennsylvania in recent years. Data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 1 show a significant reduction in natural gas drilling jobs through the first quarter of 2016. Conversely, data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection reveal a significant increase in the production of natural

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage.  Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report. Provides unconventional production volumes and well counts on a quarterly basis. Top producing counties also listed.  Quarterly Revenue Review. Published after each quarter to compare the IFO’s revenue

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

of members of the General Assembly, provide various economic, revenue or fiscal analyses. IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports • Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of recent economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. Displays monthly and Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural Gas Production Report. Provides unconventional production volumes and well counts on a quarterly basis. Top producing counties also listed

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

of funds or payment delays. Table 3.2 displays published state economic and U.S. labor productivity data for recent quarters. Notable trends include:  In 2020 Q3, real GDP growth offset much of the loss from the prior quarter.  Personal income recorded strong growth due to special unemployment compensation programs, economic impact payments and Paycheck Protection Program (PPP

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

2) EIT remittances received during the calendar year, which are attributable to wage compensation and certain net profits earned one quarter prior (i.e., 2019 Q4 to 2020 Q3) and (3) gaming local share assessment distributions on a one quarter delay (i.e., 2019 Q4 to 2020 Q3). Hence, COVID-19 will affect only two quarters of revenues received by

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QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf

IFO General Fund Revenue Estimate Comparison to Actual Revenues October 1, 2015 The Independent Fiscal Office recently published quarterly estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2015-16 General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund revenues. The office provides a detailed comparison of actual versus estimated revenues in the Quarterly Revenue Review, which is published after the end of each quarter. This document provides preliminary results for the General Fund

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

Revenue Estimates: • Initial Revenue Estimate. Due by May 1 each year. • Official Revenue Estimate. Due by June 15 each year. • Quarterly Revenue Estimates. Issued after the beginning of the fiscal year. Provides a quarterly breakdown of the IFO’s official estimate with adjustments for tax law changes enacted in conjunction with the state budget

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

U.S. Department of Commerce, domestic profits of non-financial corporations decreased $56.5 billion (-4.3%) in the third quarter of 2015 on a year-over-year basis. 1 For the fourth quarter, analysts project that earnings will continue to decline by 2% to 10% compared to the prior year. If these projections

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

recession levels of approximately $40 billion. Recent data show that bad loan write-offs have declined for the past four quarters and will total roughly $130 billion for 2011. In response to these write-downs, financial institutions tightened lending standards and show that net loans to businesses decreased at an average rate of -5.8 percent per annum from the third quarter of 2008 through the third quarter of 2011. However, recent data also show that net loans to businesses have increased

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

the Deaf, Scotland School for Veterans' Children[,] and [the] The Pennsylvania State University, shall make payments to the fund each quarter in an amount equal to one-half the sum of the percentages, as determined under section 8328 (relating to actuarial cost method), applied to the total compensation during the pay periods in the preceding quarter of all its employees who were members of the system during such period, including members on activated military service leave

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

Due to telework policies, Motor License Fund revenues are permanently reduced by the pandemic. Table 1.2 contains the latest quarterly data for the state economy. The real GDP and personal income data are published with a lag and the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1.2 Recent Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates or Change Note: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. All other rates are year over year. Wage growth for 2020 based on QCEW release on May

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

services dropped by roughly 40 percent.  Business employment services (e.g., temporary workers) declined by roughly one-quarter.  Couriers-messengers (e.g., package delivery) and the federal government were the only subsectors to record employment gains at the national their job, but are not eligible to file for UC. Based on data from the U.S. Census Quarterly Workforce Indicators, roughly 140,000 14- to 18-year-olds were employed in CY 2019. The analysis assumes that one-half lose

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

will increase by 1.6 percent and 2.0 percent. Table 1.2 displays economic trends for recent quarters based on the latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics all net jobs created, and the two subsectors devoted to care of the elderly-disabled comprised roughly one-quarter of all net jobs created. Other sectors that recorded notable gains include food service (both limited- and full-service restaurants and drinking

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

Area Employment. Economic Outlook | Page 8  Business employment services (e.g., temporary workers) declined by roughly one-quarter.  Couriers-messengers (e.g., package delivery) and the federal government were the only subsectors to record employment gains at the national their job, but are not eligible to file for UC. Based on data from the U.S. Census Quarterly Workforce Indicators, roughly 140,000 14- to 18-year-olds were employed in CY 2019. The analysis assumes that one-half lose

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

by 1.7 percent (2019) and 2.0 percent (2020). Table 1.2 displays economic trends for recent quarters based on the latest state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics all net jobs created, and the two subsectors devoted to care of the elderly-disabled comprised roughly one-quarter of all net jobs created. Other sectors that recorded notable gains include food service (limited- and full-service restaurants and drinking establishments

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

costs for con- sumers (includes deductions from paychecks) and does not reflect insurance premiums paid by businesses. The quarterly data reveal a clear deceleration of inflation on a year-over-year basis since the first quarter of 2017. Only the fuels-utilities and gasoline components show infla- tionary pressures for the Philadelphia metro region. For the first quarter

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

In June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updated the Quarterly State Personal Income series for the first quarter of 2017. The data include personal income and its components, which can be decomposed into net earnings (64% of total

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

SALES STRONG Pennsylvania home sales continued a pattern of strong growth in 2016. The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors (PAR) releases quarterly reports on home sales and prices in the Commonwealth. The data include single-family units, townhomes and condominiums through the fourth quarter of 2016. Data from PAR indicate that there were 9,000 more homes sold in 2016 than in 2015, a

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly esti- mates for Motor License and Lottery Fund revenues for

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

Due to telework policies, Motor License Fund revenues are permanently reduced by the pandemic. Table 1.2 contains the latest quarterly data for the state economy. The real GDP data are published with a lag and the latest data are for U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1.2 Recent Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates or Change Note: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. All other rates are year over year. Wage growth for 2020 based on QCEW release on May

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

0 1 3 Dec 7.9% 2.3 3.0% -3.3% 28.2% 4.6 3.52 1.8% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2012.4 0.1% 5.0% n.a. n.a. 6.3% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

Dube et al. (2015) 13 The authors use U.S. data for teens and restaurant workers from the Quarterly Workforce Indicators data- base and focus on the period from 2000 to 2011. The paper exploits differences between border counties in states workers fall substantially following a minimum wage increase — with most of the reductions coming within the first three quarters of the higher minimum (p. 2).” For both teens and restaurant workers, the authors could not identify a statistically significant negative effect

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

2) basic tax liability and (3) full tax liability. For each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual basis. All regression

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

tax liability and (3) full tax liability. For each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual basis. All regression models described

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

tax liability and (3) full tax liability. For each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual basis. All regression models described

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MER-2014-05.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 May 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

costs for con- sumers (includes deductions from paychecks) and does not reflect insurance premiums paid by businesses. The quarterly data reveal a clear deceleration of inflation on a year-over-year basis since the first quarter of 2017. Only the fuels-utilities and gasoline components show infla- tionary pressures for the Philadelphia metro region. For the first quarter

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

that the program has been subject to widespread identity and other fraud. 2 Figure 1.1 shows the quarterly breakdown of the data in Table 1.2 and illustrates the concentration of federal transfer payments in the second and third quarters. For 2020 Q2, lost labor income is estimated at $11.7 billion, while offsetting state and federal unemployment compensation plus economic stimulus

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REU-2020-02.pdf

percent). The result was primarily driven by an overage in withholding ($22.4 million) and annual payments ($12.2 million). Quarterly payments came in as expected. FYTD PIT collections are exceeding the forecast by $55.4 million (0.6 percent). The surplus is caused by the combination of higher than anticipated annual and withholding payments and reduced by lower than expected quarterly payments. Non-tax revenues were $6.2 million below estimate (-54.8 percent) for February, mainly due to lower than

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

2.5% -42.9% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA HOUSING MARKET SOLID The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors (PAR) publishes quarterly data on home prices and sales completed by realtors in the Commonwealth. 1 The data do not provide coverage of 2015. Although Pennsylvania home sales were considerably stronger in 2015, the average price increase was much lower. For the first quarter of 2016, data from PAR reveal continued strength for Pennsylvania, as sales increased by 9.8% and average prices increased

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MER-2014-11.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 November 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

analysis to the extent that staff resources are available for that purpose. 1 IFO Reports and Analyses Regular Monthly or Quarterly Reports  Monthly Trends Report. Provides a summary of monthly and fiscal‐year‐to‐date General Fund revenues. Compares actual revenues to IFO estimates. Tracks various monthly and quarterly economic metrics for Pennsylvania and the U.S.  Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues, including the

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

measures such as temporary borrowing, shifting of funds or payment delays. Table 3.2 displays state economic data for recent quarters. Recent trends include: ▪ Real GDP growth surged by 11.5% from the prior year in 2021 Q2. ▪ Personal Income recorded of federal stimulus compared to 2020 Q2. ▪ Wages and Salaries grew by more than 10% in the second and third quarters. ▪ Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) accelerated rapidly in 2021 Q2 and maintained its high rate

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

Fiscal Year 2014-15 August 14, 2014 Quarterly Revenue Estimates About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state P.L.1269, No.120). __________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank.- Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 FY 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

in July (-$115.3 million). That shortfall is offset by higher than expected collections ($38.1 million). For the first quarter of the fiscal year, total SUT base growth was 5.1 percent over the prior year, which excludes the impact of the one-time transfer. Monthly PIT collections outpaced the estimate by $34.9 million, largely due to quarterly payments exceeding expectation ($28.7 million). Those payments increased by 11.1 percent compared to the prior year. Annual payments

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

estimate for the year. Personal income tax (PIT) April collections were $47 million below estimate. Monthly withholding ($6 million) and quarterly ($19 million) payment gains partially offset annual payments, which were $73 million below estimate. The weak April annual payment is due to the acceleration of payments into December and January (quarterly payments for tax year 2017) as taxpayers attempted to maximize the benefits of federal tax law changes. For the fiscal

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

CONTRACTS The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for the second quarter of 2016. The release includes revised quarterly statistics for 2005 to 2016. The table below shows real GDP growth at annualized rates (first and second quarters and

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MER-2013-12.pdf

construction was initiated during the latest three-month period. Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania December 2013 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

states that allows tax credits to be transferred or sold. Historical data show that one-fifth to one-quarter of tax credits are sold for 93 to 94 cents on the dollar. Brokers also receive a fee for their services that liability, they may sell the credit to other firms. Historical data suggest that roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of tax credits are sold for an average of 93 to 94 cents per $1 of tax credit. Purchasers must use the

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

2019, the Hartford Courant reported that updated projections from the state were reduced to approximately $7 million, a quarter of the initial estimate. 13 The Budget Office noted that the reduction stemmed from a decline in consumer demand for LWPBs, combined reported that they are not willing to pay for a plastic retail bag.  Slightly more than one quarter (26.5 percent) are willing to pay 10 cents or less. These figures inform how Pennsylvanians might respond to policy scenarios 2

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

Dube et al. (2016) 23 The authors use U.S. data for teens and restaurant workers from the Quarterly Workforce Indicators data- base and focus on the period from 2000 to 2011. The paper exploits differences between border counties in states workers fall substantially following a minimum wage increase — with most of the reductions coming within the first three quarters of the higher minimum (p. 2).” For both teens and restaurant workers, the authors could not identify a statistically significant negative effect

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REU-2019-10.pdf

month surpassed the forecast by $29.1 million (2.6 percent), primarily driven by an overage in both annual and quarterly payments ($15.5 million and $12.6 million, respectively). Withholding collections nearly hit estimate. FYTD PIT collections continue to outpace projections by $99.7 million (2.4 percent) mainly due to strong quarterly (for tax year 2019) and annual (for tax year 2018) payments. Monthly CNIT collections exceeded projections by $28.7 million

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released purchase-only index data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylvania, seasonally adjusted data show that third quarter home prices grew by 1.8% on a quarterly annualized basis. Pennsylvania home price growth has slowed significantly since earlier in the year (Q1: 6.1%, Q2: 3.1%

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

million). Personal income tax (PIT) collections for September came in below estimate (-$9.6 million), attributable to lower than anticipated quarterly collections (-$14.4 million). Total FYTD PIT collections are below estimate (-$12.2 million) due to quarterly (-$7.3 million) and withholding (-$7.7 million) payments that were partially offset by annual payments ($2.8 million). Non-

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

graph, the average U.S. price for a gallon of reduced fat milk declined from $3.81 in the fourth quarter of 2014, to $3.10 in the third quarter of 2016. 1 For Pennsylvania, the average price for a gallon of reduced fat milk declined from $4.09 to

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MER-2014-03.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. March 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

from the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA) showed strong gains in 2018. Data for the first two quarters of 2019 reveal a slight deceleration, likely due to relatively weak home sales in the spring.  The Zillow Median Home Price the value of existing homes, as opposed to only homes that have been sold. Growth rate through second quarter. The Zillow Home Sales figure is not a repeat sales index and only represents values for homes sold during therelevant timeperiod. The30-

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 28, 2020 3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 United States Real GDP 500 Index (prior year) -6.2% 7.3% 8.2% 2.2% 29.5% Note: Real GDP growth rates are quarterly annualized rates. All others are year-over-year. Interest rates are levels. Corporate Domestic Profits for non-financial firms only

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REU-2020-01.pdf

estimate. PIT collections for January were lower than predicted by $49.3 million, due to a combination of withholding and quarterly payments, which were $17.2 million (-1.6 percent) and $38.8 million (-7.4 percent) below estimate, respectively. Annual which are $59.1 million (25.4 percent) above estimate. This overage is partially offset by the lower than expected quarterly payments (-$41.6 million, -3.4 percent). Monthly SUT collections of $1,079.3 million were $25.0 million (2

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REU-2019-12.pdf

of $38.6 million. Monthly PIT collections missed the estimate by -$47.9 million, largely due to lower than projected quarterly payments (-$53.2 million). Prior to the implementation of the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions under the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), taxpayers had an incentive to pay their last PIT quarterly payment for the current tax year in December (in advance of the January due date). It is unclear whether the

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QRE_FY15-16.pdf

Fiscal Year 2015-16 September 17, 2015 Quarterly Revenue Estimates Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 FY 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates This document provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

6 million (19.2 percent) from the prior year. Withholding revenues increased significantly due to an extra major deposit day. Quarterly and annual payments also recorded gains, albeit on a much smaller base. SUT collections were $925.4 million for the Consumer Sentiment Index 6 97.2 100.0 98.2 98.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

slightly below estimate (-$3.0 million). The shortage was driven by withholding (-$8.7 million), which was partially offset by quarterly ($4.3 million) and annual ($1.4 million) payments. FYTD collections are below estimate (-$200.0 million), due to lower than anticipated collections in quarterly payments (-$186.8 million) and withholding (-$26.9 million). Other tax revenues came in over estimate ($2.9 million) in

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

payments likely reflects income and deduction shifting by taxpayers in response to federal tax law changes. Personal income tax (PIT) quarterly payments were again exceptionally strong in January, exceeding estimate by $81 million. It is expected that tax filers are taking tax law changes is likely to result in weaker non-withholding payments in March through June. Year-to-date PIT quarterly payments exceed estimate by $128 million, while annual payments and employer withholding are largely meeting expectations for the year. Non-

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

June personal income tax (PIT) collections were below estimate by $9 million, due to slightly weaker than anticipated withholding and quarterly payments. Fiscal year PIT collections exceeded estimate (0.9 percent), driven by an overage for quarterly payments (7.8 percent). Non-tax revenues for June were $127 million below estimate. The lack of the JUA transfer

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

PIT) May collections were $10 million above estimate. Monthly withholding ($10 million) and annual ($2 million) payments more than offset quarterly payments (-$2 million), which were below estimate. For the fiscal year, PIT collections are $127 million above estimate. Overages in quarterly ($149 million) and withholding ($56 million) payments for the fiscal year are partially offset by a shortfall in annual payments

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

were all above estimate. Personal income tax (PIT) withholding payments exceeded estimate by $19 million (2.4 percent) in February. Quarterly payments came in as expected, but year-to-date quarterly payments remain strong and exceed estimate by $128 million (11.0 percent). Annual payments and employer withholding are largely meeting

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

CNIT), were roughly at estimate through November. PIT revenues were $7.1 million (-0.2 percent) below estimate, driven by quarterly payments that were $32.6 million (-6.3 percent) below estimate. SUT revenues were $8.6 million (-0.2 percent) below estimate, while CNIT revenues were $8.9 million (1.2 percent) above estimate. Fourth-quarter estimated payments for PIT (non-withholding) and CNIT liabilities are remitted each December and January. These payments represent significant contributions

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

753 $917 Growth 2.5% 1.6% 42.4% Dollar amounts are in millions. SERVICE SECTOR DRIVES JOB GAINS The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), issued by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, publishes quarterly data on employment and wages by sector, as reported by employers. In June, state data were released for the fourth

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

is Pennsylvania’s largest export. Pharmaceuticals and medicines (10.7% AAGR) and basic chemicals (5.4% AAGR) comprise roughly three- quarters of this commodity. Transportation equipment is the next largest export. Aerospace products and parts (10.3% AAGR) comprises 43% of New Building Permits 7 11.2% 9.4% 8.3% n.a. 2.3% -0.8% -7.9% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

can have a noticeable impact on the CPI-W. In Pennsylvania, the CPI-W declined 0.2% in the third quarter of 2015 (year-over-year), and is near the national inflation rate, which declined 0.4% over the same period Overall, energy costs in Pennsylvania declined 17.2%. Excluding energy costs, the CPI-W increased 1.7% in the third quarter of 2015. The impact of low gasoline and natural gas prices will also be reflected in COLAs for 2017. The

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data for 2020 Q2. Pennsylvania personal income grew 12.0% in the second quarter compared to the prior year. Transfer receipts increased by 83.8% driven by an increase in state and federal unemployment compensation. Wages and salaries declined in the second quarter for Pennsylvania and the United States -5.7% and -4.6% (year-over-year), respectively. The accommodation and food services

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

household debt and credit data for 2020 Q2. Total household debt and credit card balances both declined from the previous quarter, $34 billion (-0.2%) and $76 billion (-8.5%), respectively. This is the largest drop in household debt since 2013 Q2, and the first quarterly decline since 2014 Q2. The drop in credit card balances is the steepest quarterly decline in the history of the

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

COVID Job Losses Affect Younger PA Workers Most Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. ▪.The preliminary data are incomplete because it only reflects jobs losses at the very beginning of 2020 Q2. ▪.Hence, the data only reflect job losses of -7.2%, whereas data for entire quarter show job losses of -14.0%. Note: Excludes self-employed. Independent Fiscal Office 5 March 2021 Recent Pennsylvania Economic Trends

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

1 2 Nov-12 7.8% 11.8 1.4% 0.4% 18.1% -10.7 3.66 2.2% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.2% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate

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Independent Fiscal Office

spending or utilization. ... (Full Report) Natural Gas Production Report, 2021Q3 Natural Gas November 22, 2021 This report for the third quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of Recent EIA data show that Pennsylvania remains the largest net exporter of electricity in the country. ... (Full Report) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates Revenue Estimates August 31, 2021 This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

be signed and returned to DCED within 60 days. Throughout the job creation period, the firm must file quarterly employment affidavits with DCED. Base employment is calculated by averaging employment over the three years preceding the firm’s program start date the start date, whichever number is larger. Job creation for year one is calculated by averaging the four quarterly employment affidavits for that year and subtracting base employment. Job creation for year two is calculated by averaging the four quarterly employment

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

Market On May 23, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state and county employment data for the fourth quarter of 2017. These administrative data provide the final benchmark upon which all published state employment and wage income trends will in 2018 Q1 On May 17, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for the first quarter of 2018. On a year-over-year basis, the data reveal the following growth rates for total Pennsylvania consumer debt

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

estimate. FYTD PIT collections are below estimate by only $8.0 million (-0.2 percent), with shortfalls in withholding and quarterly payments partially offset by higher than expected annual payments. Non-tax collections were below estimate for October (-$23.9 million amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | October 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

and other miscellaneous collections. July and August are smaller revenue collections months. September collections will include both CNIT and PIT quarterly estimated payments and should be a better indicator of how collections are performing relative to revenue estimates for the fiscal Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS July 2018 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

utility prices and demand for calendar year 2017. Personal income tax (PIT) collections came in as expected. Year-to-date quarterly payments remain strong and exceed estimate by $132 million (10.9 percent). Non-withholding PIT collections will likely be weaker tax law changes, authorized transfers and borrowing. The original baseline estimates did not change from June 2017. See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ download.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18_Update.pdf. FY

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

tax (SUT), were below estimate through October. PIT revenues were $16.8 million (-0.4 percent) below estimate, driven by quarterly payments that were $34.9 million (-7.0 percent) below estimate. SUT revenues were $35.9 million (-1.0 percent 2.8% 22.6% Dollar amounts are in millions. MONTHLY TRENDS OCTOBER 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18.pdf. FY

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

tax (SUT), were below estimate through September. PIT revenues were $13.6 million (-0.5 percent) below estimate, driven by quarterly payments that were $32.4 million (-7.3 percent) below estimate. SUT revenues were $21.8 million (-0.8 percent 4.8% 4.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. MONTHLY TRENDS SEPTEMBER 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18.pdf. FY

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

3% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA CONSUMER DEBT OUTPACES REGION The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) publishes quarterly state data on consumer debt. The data span major loan types, such as mortgage, auto, credit card and student loan 9% PA 0.5% 1.5% 7.0% 7.3% 2.5% Note: Data are per capita for the fourth quarter of each calendar year and multiplied by the number of consumers with a credit report in each state to yield

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

quality employees, which caused the average wage to increase by 3.1% for both years. Data for the first three quarters of 2016 reveal a clear deceleration of average wage growth, and imply a growth rate of roughly 1.8% for New Building Permits 7 4.4% 5.5% 5.4% n.a. 8.7% 3.5% -2.4% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

can be used to assess the probability of a recession (i.e., a decline in real GDP in two consecutive quarters) within the next year. A recent Wall Street Journal survey of economists placed that probability at 21%, an increase of necessary to evaluate the implications of recent economic trends. The release later this month of June employment growth and second quarter GDP will provide key insights to the U.S. economic outlook. June 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 The Wall Street

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

Home Depot Inc., reported that customers spent $60 per trip this year, which is the highest level since the first quarter of 2006. 1 Sales at department stores have declined due to strong growth in the non-store sector (e.g New Building Permits 7 12.3% 15.1% 14.1% n.a 10.4% 25.9% 31.2% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

sector contracted by 24,100 jobs (-9.2%) while local government contracted by 36,500 jobs (-7.5%). Roughly three- quarters of the contraction in the local government sector was related to education; the residual was related to municipal functions. These New Building Permits 7 8.3% 10.5% 10.7% n.a. -7.9% -10.1% -12.4% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

New Building Permits 7 10.5% 9.3% 11.2% n.a. -15.3% -11.0% 2.3% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015 single-housing units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

New Building Permits 7 10.0% 9.4% 10.5% n.a -18.7% -24.1% -15.3% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015 single-housing units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the

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MRU_2021_03.pdf

37 billion in March exceeded estimate by $72.5 million (5.6 percent) mainly due to overages in withholding and quarterly payments. Withholding revenues were over estimate by $37.8 million (3.4 percent), while quarterly payments exceeded estimate by $28.0 million (56.0 percent). FYTD PIT collections total $11.21 billion and are $157

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

sectors. PA COVID-19 Job Loss Disproportionately Impacted Young and Female Workers The U.S. Census Bureau recently released the Quarterly Workforce Indicators dataset for 2020 Q3. These data provide new detail on the type of workers who lost jobs during 2% Share of UC Claims 12% 44% 34% 9% 46% 54% 79% 17% 3% 1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators Explorer, Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. Pennsylvania COVID-19 Job Loss by Demographic Characteristic Age Race 1

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

commercial vehicle traffic on the Turnpike remained relatively flat compared to the prior year, increasing 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Passenger vehicle trips, which comprised 80% of Turnpike traffic in 2020, did not experience the same rebound. For the fourth quarter of 2020, passenger vehicle trips declined 28.1% from 2019 levels. Pennsylvania Education Jobs Not Recovered as Pandemic Persists A

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MER-2015-03.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 March 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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MER-2015-01.pdf

Data are published on a bi-monthly basis. 8 January 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

2.0 1.3 3.93 3.74 3.73 3.58 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% n.a. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 (2013.1 value is 2.5%) Personal Income

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

0 1 3 Jan 8.2% 4.0 0.3% -1.8% 24.6% -5.8 3.51 1.8% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2012.4 0.4% 5.0% 3.1% 5.5% 6.3% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

 The location and type of any qualified post-production expenses. Applications are approved (or disapproved) on a quarterly basis. Upon approval, DCED will issue an FPTC contract, which specifies the maximum amount of tax credit for which the applicant is that data are available. The employment data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). 9 The data are based on returns filed by firms covered by the national unemployment insurance

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

wholesalers, retailers and providers of MRO services. The data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The QCEW data provide quarterly employment and wage data by six- digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) at the state level, provided that certain disclosure restrictions

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

Q1 only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FHFA. Forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Trends May 26, 2021 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 96 -160 -231 -216 -150 Home Price Index 4.7% 8.4% 11.0% 11.9% -- Note: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. All other rates or change relative to same quarter in prior year. Wages- Salaries for CY 2021

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REU-2019-11.pdf

Consumer Sentiment Index 6 89.8 93.2 95.5 96.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates Non-motor sales tax Wages (withholding) June.12.2018 4 FY 16-17 deficit PA 2% 2.0% 2.5% Note: Net job gains exclude self-employed. Values for 2018 reflect data for the first quarter of 2018 (house price index and consumer debt), data through May (gasoline) or are forecasts by the IFO (all other

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

Growth in 2018 Q3 Four real-time data sources suggest that the Pennsylvania economy recorded robust growth for the third quarter of 2018. Based on non-motor sales tax collections, taxable consumer and business spending increased 8.3% compared to the figure for motor vehicle sales tax was 9.9%. The preliminary annual rate of net payroll job creation for the quarter was 68,000, compared to 62,900 in 2017 and 50,000 for 2016. Finally, tax remit- tances based on

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary state real Gross Domestic Product data for 2018 Q2. On a quarterly annualized basis, the Pennsylvania economy expanded by 3.6%. That rate is con- siderably higher than the prior two quarters: 2017 Q4 (0.1%) and 2018 Q1 (0.6%). The second quarter growth rate was higher than some surrounding states

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

Consumer Sentiment Index 6 100.0 98.2 98.4 89.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2. U.S.: Increase in payroll employment compared to the previous month or quarter. PA: Average year-over-year increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Bureau

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | June 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/ Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.4 97.2 100.0 98.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | May 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/ Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July Consumer Sentiment Index 6 93.8 98.4 97.2 100.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | April 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/ Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July Consumer Sentiment Index 6 91.2 93.8 98.4 97.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | March 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.3 91.2 93.8 98.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | January 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.6 97.5 98.3 91.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | December 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July Consumer Sentiment Index 6 100.1 98.6 97.5 98.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | November 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July Consumer Sentiment Index 6 96.2 100.1 98.6 97.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS December 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/ Documents/MQRE_FY17-18_Update.pdf. 2 New Building Permits 7 8.6% 9.2% 10.4% n.a. 25.7% 10.7% 3.9% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2017

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

single-housing units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth New Building Permits 7 9.3% 7.8% 11.4% n.a. 9.2% 2.3% 16.6% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

2016. Moreover, withholding tax revenues show solid growth in take home pay, growing roughly 3.5% for the first three quarters of FY 2016-17. Third, consumers could be impacted by “wealth effects” if the stock market is performing poorly or New Building Permits 7 11.8% 13.4% 8.3% n.a. 5.8% 6.7% 0.1% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

New Building Permits 7 7.5% 8.6% 13.4% n.a. 18.8% 20.7% 16.9% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016 single-housing units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

New Building Permits 7 11.8% 8.3% 4.4% n.a. 24.8% 25.6% 8.7% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016 single-housing units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

to weak year-end bonuses or seasonal hiring. March 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 See Table SQ5N under the “State Quarterly Personal Income” link at http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm. 2 Capital gains income is excluded. Pennsylvania Gross Earnings New Building Permits 7 10.7% 11.5% 12.3% n.a. -12.4% -3.1% 10.4% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

New Building Permits 7 9.4% 10.5% 9.3% n.a -24.1% -15.3% -11.0% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015 single-housing units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

Q2. Compared to the prior year, data show that U.S. personal income grew by 10.4% in the second quarter. Wages and salaries declined by 4.6% but was more than offset by an increase in transfer payments (83.6% 34 $1.31 $1.25 $1.07 Home Sales 6 -13.0% 4.3% 32.7% 13.8% n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 Gross Domestic Product 7 1.7% 2.1% 2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

2020. For 2020 Q3, mortgage and auto loan originations reached record highs with $168 billion in auto loan originations (highest quarter on record) and $1.05 trillion in mortgage originations (second only to the refinance boom of 2003 Q3). COVID-19 22 $1.17 $0.94 $1.93 Home Sales 6 32.7% 13.8% 16.2% 4.7% n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 Gross Domestic Product 7 2.5% 1.4% -5

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

Milliman in April showed that during 2020 Q1 the top 100 public pension plans in the nation saw the largest quarterly drop on record of $419 billion, but the April market rebound helped recover $200 billion of those losses. 2020 Q1 60 $1.37 $1.42 $1.35 Home Sales 6 10.5% 9.7% n.a. n.a. n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Gross Domestic Product 7 3.3% 1.7% 2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

released 2020 Q4 home price index data. Pennsylvania home values grew 10.9% in 2020 Q4 compared to the same quarter of the prior year. National 2020 Q4 home values also grew by 10.9% over the prior year. The strong 9% -27.6% -35.1% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -1.6% 0.7% 5.1% -1.6% -4.9% Quarterly Data 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Gross Domestic Product 8 1.4% -5.8% -34

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

in 2019 Q3.) The estimated average cash out was $51,600 and total equity withdrawn was $37 billion for the quarter. Data from Freddie Mac show that the dollar amount of cash-out refinancings was the largest since 2007. Other data 17 $1.07 $0.98 $2.37 Home Sales 6 13.8% 16.2% 4.7% n.a. n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 Gross Domestic Product 7 2.5% 1.4% -5

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MER-2015-06.pdf

Data are published on a bi-monthly basis. 8 June 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of

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MER-2015-04.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 April 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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MER-2015-02.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 February 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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MER-2014-12.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 December 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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MER-2014-08.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 August 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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MER-2014-07.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 July 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Value for 2014.2 is 4.0%. Personal

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MER-2014-04.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 April 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 (Preliminary rate for 2014.1 is 0.1%

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MER-2014-02.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. February 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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MER-2014-01.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. January 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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MER-2013-11.pdf

3.39 3.35 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% n.a. Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

5.2 12.5 3.51 3.58 3.54 3.53 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% n.a. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

1.3 -5.2 3.74 3.73 3.58 3.53 2.0% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.2% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

to make its “best efforts” to identify and create a list of “scrutinized companies” and update that list on a quarterly basis. Under the bill, “best efforts” include reviewing and relying on publicly available information regarding companies having business operations in a 8 scrutinized companies list. 9 (c) Update.--The public fund shall update the scrutinized 10 companies list on a quarterly basis based on evolving 11 information from, among other sources, those listed in 12 subsection (a). 13 Section 6. Required

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RTR-2014-12.pdf

by $122 million (11.0%) for the fiscal year. Estimated payments for December, which are largely comprised of the last quarterly payment from corporations that file their taxes on a calendar year basis, increased by $37 million (9.6%). For the growth was affected by a due date in late December that occurred in early January in the prior fiscal year. Quarterly estimated payments increased by $26 million (25.9%) for the month and $37 million (6.8%) for the fiscal year

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RTR-2014-09.pdf

increased by $276 million (4.6%). • Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $96 million (25.2%) for the month. Quarterly and final payments increased by $81 million (25.4%) and $15 million (24.2%), respectively. For the fiscal year, total 3.9%), bringing fiscal year-to-date growth to 3.8% and the twelve-month average to 2.9%. September quarterly payments grew by $5 million (1.6%), and annual payments declined by $1 million (-4.5%). • Sales and use tax

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

The same is true for older workers, but the gap is much smaller. Overall, the data show that roughly one-quarter of workers that would have been directly impacted by a $12.00 minimum wage were under age 20 and one- 9 59.7 12.4 Source: Data for 2019 based on OES, Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI). 2022 is a projection by IFO based on assumptions in text. Table 3.3 Share by Gender

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

return to work after the six-week closure while the other half remain unemployed through June. For 2020 Q3, three-quarters of affected workers are rehired by the end of the quarter. For 2020 Q4, all affected workers are rehired by the end of the quarter. The same pattern holds for Scenario

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RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf

publication of that series (2001) with 4.2% year-over-year (YOY) growth and 1.5% growth from the prior quarter (6.0% annualized). The total wages data show that wages paid in September grew 9.3% on a YOY basis losses, most growth in 2021 Q3 and Q4 is wages gains and, to a lesser extent, signing bonuses. If those quarterly growth rates are accurate, then total Pennsylvania wages will grow by slightly over 8% for the full calendar year, the

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

indicator of PA economy. Often a disconnect between economic forecast and real time revenue data. Look at data from first quarter of FY 2013-14. 24 . Sept . 2013 10 Are PA Consumers Spending? Sales Taxes nearly one-third of General Fund. Non-Motor Sales Tax collections remain weak. o For first quarter of FY 2013-14, revenues up 1.5%. o Inflation is approximately 1.5%. But, Motor Vehicle Sales Tax up

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 29, 2019 3 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 United States Real GDP 500 Index (prior qtr) -1.2% 2.9% 7.2% -14.0% 5.5% Notes: Real GDP growth rates are quarterly annualized rates. S&P 500 Index uses values from end of quarter. Value for 2019.1 is close for Jan

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. 3.0% 2.4% 3.5% 0.9% 3.7% 3.4% Wages (Withholding) Non-Motor Sales Tax Wages (Withholding but decent.  Business profits continue to lag.  Limited borrowing by PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. Recent PA Economic Trends Recent Economic Trends June 7, 2017 11

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

Economic and Revenue Update PICA Fall Conference 2020 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 18, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data November 18, 2020 1 October 2020 Annual Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1.9% 2.4% -4 Net Job Gains (000s) 68 54 -450 100 Philadelphia CPI-U 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% Latest Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Real GDP -5.8% -34.0% -- -- Wages-Salaries Paid 3.7%

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director December 9, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data December 9, 2020 1 Annual Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1.9% 2.4% -4.5% 3 Net Job Gains (000s) 68 54 -450 120 Philadelphia CPI-U 1.3% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% Latest Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Real GDP -5.8% -34.0% Dec 23 -- Wages-Salaries Paid

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

of full-time, non-seasonal health care workers grew from 5 million to 9 million since 2000. In 2017, three-quarters of these health care jobs were filled by women. Registered nurses were the most common job in health care in gains in nationwide production. Pennsylvania, the nation’s second-largest producer of natural gas, produced more gas in the second quarter (April to June) than in any quarter in the state’s history. For August, the average price of gas on

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

ble slowdown in the number of jobs created for 2019 Q1. The annualized pace of net jobs creation for that quarter show an increase of 44,600 jobs (not seasonally adjusted) compared to the same quarter in the prior year. That latest data point is consistent with the pattern of net jobs creation during calendar year

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

New Building Permits 7 13.4% 11.8% 13.4% n.a. 16.9% 5.8% 6.7% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017 single-housing units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth

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MRU_2021_11.pdf

by $53.9 million (5.7%) for the month, largely the result of withholding (+$37.8 million, 4.2%) and quarterly (+$11.8 million, 53.7%) payments. November annual payments were $4.3 million (16.8%) above projections. FYTD PIT collections 5.56 billion are $225.5 million (4.2%) higher than expected due to withholding (+$113.6 million, 2.5%), quarterly (+$86.3 million, 13.6%) and annual (+$25.7 million, 11.5%) payments. Other tax revenues for November were $35

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MRU_2021_10.pdf

the estimate by $38.4 million, largely due to withholding payments exceeding expectations (+$39.4 million, 4.6%). Annual and quarterly payments essentially met estimate for the month. FYTD PIT collections of $4.56 billion are $171.6 million (3.9%) above the forecast. The overage is the result of withholding (+$75.8 million, 2.1%), quarterly (+$74.4 million, 12.1%) and annual (+$21.4 million, 10.8%) payments. Other tax revenues of $353.0 million

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MRU_2021_09.pdf

PIT collections of $1.54 billion were $119.0 million (8.4%) above estimate. The overage was largely due to quarterly payments (+$73.8 million, 16.8%), but was aided by withholding (+$40.1 million, 4.2%) and annual payments (+$5 16.0%). FYTD PIT collections of $3.47 billion are $133.2 million (4.0%) above projections due primarily to quarterly payments (+$73.6 million, 13.8%). After adjusting for an extra due date in July 2020, withholding collections for the

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MRU_2021_07.pdf

for the month, $55.0 million below collections from the prior year because July 2020 included an extra due date. Quarterly and annual payments also recorded declines (-$414.2 million and -$884.2 million, respectively). PIT collections in the prior year were impacted by virus- related due date extensions. After adjusting for the shift and extra due date, quarterly payments exceeded prior year collections by $5.8 million (12.5%), annual payments increased by $10.8 million (38.2%

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MRU_2021_05.pdf

May 17 to coincide with the change in the federal due date for tax year (TY) 2020 returns. In addition, quarterly (+$76.8 million, 307.1%) and withholding (+$15.6 million, 1.9%) payments surpassed estimate for the month. Although the due date for the first quarterly payment for TY 2021 was in April, some taxpayers likely paid late (i.e., with their annual return for TY

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MRU_2021_02.pdf

million (0.8 percent). February PIT collections recorded a $340.0 million (33.5 percent) overage almost entirely due to quarterly payments that were shifted from January to February after the temporary, COVID-related closure of a payment processing facility. Annual than anticipated. The PIT overage is expected to be partially offset in April to the extent small business owners made quarterly payments related to forgiven PPP loans, which are now non-taxable. Cigarette tax collections exceeded estimate by $15.7 million

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MRU-2021-06.pdf

billion (+$54.3 million, 3.9%) as a result of stronger than expected annual (+$33.2 million, 101.9%) and quarterly (+$27.9 million, 8.0%) payments. The overage was offset by a slight shortfall in withholding (-$6.8 million, -0 fiscal year totaled $16.28 billion and were $476.3 million (3.0%) over estimate due entirely to annual and quarterly payments. Withholding collections met estimate for the year. SUT collections for June of $1.20 billion continued to exhibit unusual

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

to the virus. The IFO estimates that roughly $30 million is permanently lost due to reduced economic activity (withholding and quarterly payments), $30 million is tied to processing delays that will reverse this fiscal year and $60 million is delayed until less than $10 million). FYTD PIT collections are $60.5 million (-0.6 percent) below estimate, with a shortfall in quarterly payments (-$80.3 million) partially offset by overages in withholding and annual payments ($16.3 million and $3.5 million

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

17 $1.07 $0.98 $2.37 Home Sales 6 13.8% 16.2% 4.7% n.a. n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 Gross Domestic Product 7 2.5% 1.4% -5 7.7% 15.3% 13.4% 10-Year Note 12 0.69 0.68 0.86 0.84 0.89 Quarterly Data 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 Gross Domestic Product 7 2.6% 2.4% -5

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

0% 26.6% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 41.6% 20.3% 11.6% 6.0% n.a. Quarterly Data 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Gross Domestic Product 8 -34.0% 35.5% 3 38.6% 34.4% 29.2% 10-Year Note 13 1.63 1.58 1.44 1.24 1.30 Quarterly Data 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Gross Domestic Product 8 -31.2% 33.8% 4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

0% 26.6% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 41.6% 20.3% 11.6% 6.0% n.a. Quarterly Data 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Gross Domestic Product 8 -34.0% 35.5% 3 38.6% 34.4% 29.2% 10-Year Note 13 1.63 1.58 1.44 1.24 1.30 Quarterly Data 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Gross Domestic Product 8 -31.2% 33.8% 4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf

6% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 20.3% 11.6% 6.0% n.a. n.a. Quarterly Data 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Gross Domestic Product 8 -32.4% 34.8% 5 34.4% 29.2% 28.1% 10-Year Note 13 1.58 1.44 1.24 1.30 1.53 Quarterly Data 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Gross Domestic Product 8 -31.2% 33.8% 4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf

6% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 20.3% 11.6% 6.0% n.a. n.a. Quarterly Data 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Gross Domestic Product 8 -32.4% 34.8% 5 34.4% 29.2% 28.1% 10-Year Note 13 1.58 1.44 1.24 1.30 1.53 Quarterly Data 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Gross Domestic Product 8 -31.2% 33.8% 4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf

a. n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 11.6% 6.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. Quarterly Data 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 Gross Domestic Product 8 34.8% 5.2% 3 29.2% 28.1% 40.8% 10-Year Note 13 1.44 1.24 1.30 1.53 1.56 Quarterly Data 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 Gross Domestic Product 8 33.8% 4.5% 6

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

1% 23.5% 165.9% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 5.1% -1.6% -4.9% 18.5% 41.6% Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.8% -34.0% 35 29.0% 53.7% 42.8% 10-Year Note 13 0.92 1.09 1.46 1.75 1.57 Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.0% -31.4% 33

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

5% 165.9% 81.1% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -1.6% -4.9% 18.5% 41.6% 20.3% Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.8% -34.0% 35 53.7% 43.6% 38.1% 10-Year Note 13 1.09 1.46 1.75 1.63 1.58 Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.0% -31.4% 33

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

37 $1.43 $1.31 $1.40 Home Sales 6 9.7% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Gross Domestic Product 7 3.3% 1.7% 2 1.1% 10.6% 4.2% 10 Year Note 12 1.13 0.70 0.62 0.64 0.70 Quarterly Data 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Gross Domestic Product 7 3.1% 2.0% 2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

9% 81.1% 40.0% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -4.9% 18.5% 41.6% 20.3% 11.6% Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.8% -34.0% 35 43.6% 38.1% 38.6% 10-Year Note 13 1.46 1.75 1.63 1.58 1.44 Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.0% -31.4% 33

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

9% 81.1% 40.0% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -4.9% 18.5% 41.6% 20.3% 11.6% Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.8% -34.0% 35 43.6% 38.1% 38.6% 10-Year Note 13 1.46 1.75 1.63 1.58 1.44 Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.0% -31.4% 33

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

43 $1.31 $1.33 $1.15 Home Sales 6 -7.1% -16.9% -13.0% 4.3% n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Gross Domestic Product 7 3.3% 1.7% 2 10.6% 5.4% 8.2% 10-Year Note 12 0.70 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.63 Quarterly Data 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Gross Domestic Product 7 3.1% 2.0% 2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

3% -32.9% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 3.0% -1.6% 0.7% 5.1% n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 Gross Domestic Product 8 2.5% 1.4% -5 15.3% 16.3% 17.8% 10-Year Note 13 0.68 0.86 0.84 0.92 1.14 Quarterly Data 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 Gross Domestic Product 8 2.6% 2.4% -5

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

3% -32.9% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 3.0% -1.6% 0.7% 5.1% n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Gross Domestic Product 8 1.4% -5.8% -34 15.3% 16.3% 15.2% 10-Year Note 13 0.68 0.86 0.84 0.92 1.09 Quarterly Data 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Gross Domestic Product 8 2.4% -5.0% -31

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

3% -32.9% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 3.0% -1.6% 0.7% 5.1% n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Gross Domestic Product 8 1.4% -5.8% -34 15.3% 16.3% 15.2% 10-Year Note 13 0.68 0.86 0.84 0.92 1.09 Quarterly Data 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Gross Domestic Product 8 2.4% -5.0% -31

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

1% 40.0% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 18.5% 41.6% 20.3% 11.6% n.a. Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.8% -34.0% 35 38.1% 38.6% 34.4% 10-Year Note 13 1.75 1.63 1.58 1.44 1.24 Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 Gross Domestic Product 8 -5.1% -31.2% 33

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

6% -35.1% 23.5% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 0.7% 5.1% -1.6% -4.9% 18.5% Quarterly Data 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Gross Domestic Product 8 1.4% -5.8% -34 15.2% 29.0% 53.7% 10-Year Note 13 0.84 0.92 1.09 1.46 1.75 Quarterly Data 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Gross Domestic Product 8 2.4% -5.0% -31

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

6% -35.1% 23.5% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 0.7% 5.1% -1.6% -4.9% 18.5% Quarterly Data 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Gross Domestic Product 8 1.4% -5.8% -34 15.2% 29.0% 53.7% 10-Year Note 13 0.84 0.92 1.09 1.46 1.75 Quarterly Data 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Gross Domestic Product 8 2.4% -5.0% -31

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

65 $1.60 $1.37 $1.26 Home Sales 6 8.7% 10.6% n.a. n.a. n.a. Quarterly Data 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Gross Domestic Product 7 3.3% 1.7% 2 6.1% -8.8% -2.4% 10 Year Note 12 1.92 1.52 1.13 0.70 0.65 Quarterly Data 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Gross Domestic Product 7 3.1% 2.0% 2

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

month lag to coincide with withholding and economic activity. Withholding growth rates are adjusted for extra deposit days during the quarter. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 25.Jan.2017 16 PA Consumer Debt Growth Year-Over-Year Growth Rates (Quarterlies) Tax Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Annuals Combined 2014 4.2% 0.1% 2.8% 0.1% 1.5%

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MER-2014-10.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 October 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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MER-2014-09.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 September 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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MER-2014-06.pdf

are published on a bi‐monthly basis. 8 June 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. forecasts by IHS Markit. PA forecasts by IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends May 15, 2019 2 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 United States Real GDP Lottery Instant Ticket Sales 4.8% 6.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.8% Notes: Real GDP growth rates are quarterly annualized rates. Non-GDP growth rates are year-over-year. Net New Jobs excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

134 -206 U.S. Labor Productivity 1.7% 0.9% 2.9% 4.2% 2.5% Note: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. Data for CY 2020 and 2020 Q4 are estimates by IFO. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor 1,047 14.1% pent-up demand Income – Withholding 6,032 -1.5% Income – Other 2,453 ‘ 1.8% final quarterly payments strong, includes $100m from PPP All Tobacco 693 -0.3% Inheritance 707 -1.5% Realty Transfer 371 12.4%

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

on tax returns, and are net of any refunds, overpayments or tax credits. For all three tax years, roughly three‐quarters of filers reported no tax liability because the firm reported a tax loss, eliminated liability with a net operating loss less than one‐fifth (17.9 percent) was reported by firms that were largely Pennsylvania‐only firms, and roughly one‐quarter (25.3 percent) was reported by firms with a sales apportionment factor between 10 and 95 percent. For various reasons

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

0.8% Net Job Gains (000s) 68.9 57.2 69.8 70.2 Note: Real GDP and components are quarterly annualized rates. All others are year-over-year. Job gains represent annual rate of net job creation. All data except was flat Sales - Motor -16 General weakness PIT - Withholding 31 Steady gains PIT - Other -12 Monies shifted from finals to quarterlies Cigarette -10 Unusual recent weakness Gaming Expansion 85 Pick up from first two auctions; five assumed Loan-Lease-Transfers -67

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

3 22.3 19.8 3.83 3.65 3.60 3.39 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% delayed Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

9.3 22.3 3.89 3.63 3.65 3.60 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

19.8 9.3 3.72 3.54 3.63 3.65 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% n.a. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

12.5 19.8 3.49 3.53 3.54 3.63 1.3% 1.1% 1.5% n.a. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 13.4 1.4% 0.4% 18.1% -8.9 3.66 2.2% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2012.4 -0.1% 4.9% n.a. n.a. n.a. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

1 2 Oct-12 8.1% 14.0 1.6% -4.9% 12.5% 5.7 3.62 2.2% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econ- omy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

9% 12.9% -16.6 3.51 1.3% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 2011.3 1.3% 4.7% 4.7% -3.7% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the US economy. Excludes infla- tion. Data are from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal

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WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf

26%) decline from 2019.  New wells drilled in 2020 projected to be the fourth consecutive year of decline.  Quarterly production growth has been decelerating for the last 5 quarters. Other Implications  State liquid fuels taxes down in FY19-20, projected to decline further in FY20-21.  IFO

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

on level of industry employment for 2019. The data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and are based on returns filed by firms covered by the national unemployment insurance 10% 0.21% Table 3.2 Employment Level Software Publishers Industry Employment Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Pennsylvania Employment Data Employment Level Notes: Data represent Software Publishers industry, NAICS Code 511210. AAGR

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

2 percent per annum. Federal programs (e.g., Environmen- tal Quality Incentives Program and Conservation Innovation Grants) comprise over three-quarters of public funds provided. The Pennsylvania Growing Greener program is also a significant source of project funding, while other state s agriculture industry generated approximately $7.76 billion in sales. The Commonwealth is a major dairy producer, with over a quarter of agricultural sales generated from cow’s milk. However, milk sales have stagnated over the last ten years, likely due

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

show that 15 to 21 projects received a credit allocation, and allocations typically comprise one-half to three-quarters of the requested amount for projects that ultimately received an allocation. Credit allocations comprise roughly one percent of estimated project costs. Data expended twice the dollar amount on state tax credits, but reported a per capita ratio that was one quarter of Oklahoma. Overall, this comparison presents a mixed picture. Some states without credits have per capita levels similar to others in their

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

share of households that enters or leaves the state during the six- 2 Households exclude individuals living in various group quarter settings such as nursing homes, college dormitories and prisons. 3 See https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in- Pennsylvania Household Income Distribution: 2012 vs 2018 Notes: AAGR is average annual growth rate. Households exclude individuals living in group quarters such as prisons, nursing homes and dormitories. Middle income is defined as households that have between 67% and 200% of

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RTR-May 2012.pdf

9.7% 1,192.4 8.2% -15.1% 9.6% 8.1% 22.5% 2,467.1 2.9% Quarterly 23.8 17.5% 296.9 17.5% -21.0% 5.2% 8.2% 18.8% 1,353.6 0 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% 53.0 269.7% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three

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RTR-Mar 2012.pdf

7 2.9% 495.9 -15.1% 9.6% 8.1% 22.5% 24.0% 2,380.1 9.0% Quarterly 26.8 2.6% 381.0 -21.0% 5.2% 8.2% 18.8% 31.2% 1,310.0 0 200.0% 159.5% -79.5% 44.4 250.9% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three

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RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf

12.2% 1,430.3 9.5% -15.1% 9.6% 8.1% 22.5% 2,504.2 3.4% Quarterly 274.6 11.5% 544.6 15.2% -21.0% 5.2% 8.2% 18.8% 1,381.9 0 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% 66.4 321.8% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three or

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RTR-Feb 2012.pdf

6 14.3% 486.4 -15.9% 9.6% 8.1% 22.5% 24.0% 2,377.1 7.1% Quarterly 13.7 -12.5% 436.5 -19.6% 5.2% 8.2% 18.8% 31.2% 1,309.3 -2 200.0% 159.5% -79.5% 41.5 115.4% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three

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RTR-Apr 2012.pdf

8.6% 1,167.8 8.3% -15.1% 9.6% 8.1% 22.5% 2,461.5 3.6% Quarterly 246.2 19.4% 286.7 15.6% -21.0% 5.2% 8.2% 18.8% 1,350.0 0 348.5% 200.0% 159.5% 48.4 258.7% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three

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RTR-2015-01.pdf

declined because two due dates that fell in January 2014 occur in different months this fiscal year (December and February). Quarterly estimated payments increased by $15 million (4.1%) for the month and $51 million (5.8%) for the fiscal-year- 2.9% 1.7% 3.1% Nonwithholding 381.1 3.9% 1,092.8 4.3% 8.2% -3.8% Quarterly 370.0 4.1% 941.3 5.8% 8.9% 4.3% Annuals 11.1 -3.8% 151.6 -4

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RTR-2014-06.pdf

tax revenues increased by $68 million (6.6%) for the month. Withholding receipts grew by $23 million (3.4%) and quarterly estimated payments increased by $2 million (0.8%). Annual payments increased by $43 million (51.5%) due to an interfund 2.6% 2.8% 2.6% Nonwithholding 405.0 12.6% 2,693.5 -5.4% -10.5% -5.4% Quarterly 278.6 0.8% 1,493.3 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% Annuals 126.4 51.5% 1,200

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RTR-2014-01.pdf

the twelve-month growth rate is only 1.0%. o Nonwithholding receipts decreased by $40 million (-9.9%), largely because quarterly payments were $41 million (-10.4%) below the prior year. Fiscal year-to-date nonwithholding collections are slightly lower (-0 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% Nonwithholding 366.8 -9.9% 1,048.0 -0.1% -7.5% 8.6% Quarterly 355.2 -10.4% 890.0 -1.4% -8.5% -0.4% Annuals 11.6 5.8% 158.0 8

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

are projected to register a small decline based on weakness in estimated payments for March and June, the first two quarterly payments for calendar year 2015 filers. Sales and Use Tax – The forecast projects moderate increases in consumer spending, but low Personal Income - Total 12,088 5.7% 12,662 4.8% Withholding 9,078 3.8% 9,516 4.8% Quarterly 1,617 8.3% 1,691 4.5% Annual 1,392 16.0% 1,456 4.6% Other Tax Revenue

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

Personal Income Tax – Deposits from employer withholding are projected to increase modestly due to increased employment and low wage inflation. Quarterly and annual remittances are expected to exhibit much stronger growth in FY14-15 because these revenues were suppressed in FY13- Personal Income - Total 11,435 0.6% 12,014 5.1% Withholding 8,740 2.5% 9,050 3.6% Quarterly 1,500 0.4% 1,586 5.8% Annual 1,195 -11.8% 1,377 15.2% Other Tax Revenue

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

1.8b), PEUC ($0.9b) Economic Impact Payments 11.0 goes to 6.6 million PA recipients Total +42.3 Quarterly Income Gains and Losses October 29, 2020 3 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 Note: All growth rates or change relative to the same period in prior year except Real GDP, which is a quarterly annualized growth rate. Payroll Jobs does not include self-employed. Labor Force includes those employed and those actively seeking work

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

 But payroll employment down ~17% for April  Due to types of workers affected: lower wage and part-time Quarterly and annual payments delayed to July 15  March and June quarterly, April 15 final payment | ~$1.5 billion shift Taxpayers can delay employer share of federal payroll taxes  Delay 50%

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf

The resulting shift of revenue compared to last year’s pattern will weaken reported revenue growth in February. o Strong quarterly estimated payments resulted in an increase of $54 million (15.2%) in nonwithholding revenues.  Sales and use tax collections 5.1% 3.8% 4.7% Nonwithholding 407.3 15.2% 1,048.7 12.6% 12.1% 10.5% Quarterly 396.3 16.4% 902.3 13.3% 16.3% 13.4% Annuals 10.9 -16.6% 146.3 8

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf

6 -21.4% 488.4 -14.3% 9.6% 8.1% 22.5% 24.0% 2,372.3 6.9% Quarterly 340.4 -22.7% 441.0 -18.4% 5.2% 8.2% 18.8% 31.2% 1,311.3 -2 200.0% 159.5% -79.5% 39.2 65.8% Monthly Revenues Three Month Total b Twelve Month Total b Quarterly Growth Rates a c c a compared to the same period in the prior year; b the three or twelve

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Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf

the increase is attributable to payments made with annual returns, which increased by $211 million (27.1%). Employer withholding and quarterly estimated payments posted only modest gains.  Sales and use tax collections displayed continuing weakness, declining by $25 million (-3 7% -2.5% 2.8% Nonwithholding 1,243.1 21.2% 2,430.3 15.8% 18.3% 15.2% Quarterly 252.5 2.6% 1,195.7 10.4% 2.3% 10.7% Annuals 990.5 27.1% 1,234

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Public_Data-Motor_License_Fund.xlsx

0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.3 0.0 0.0 Quarterly SUMMARY | DETAIL - LIQUID FUELS TAXES | DETAIL - LICENSES AND FEES | DETAIL - OTHER MOTOR RECEIPTS (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) Calendar Quarter Total Motor License Fund Total of Liquid Fuels Taxes Total of Licenses and Fees Total of Other Motor Receipts | Liquid

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Public_Data-General_Fund.xlsx

345.5 241.8 (38.0) | 185.1 963.2 187.2 775.9 64.1 0.0 0.0 Quarterly SUMMARY | DETAIL - CORPORATE TAXES | DETAIL - CONSUMPTION TAXES | DETAIL - OTHER TAXES | DETAIL - NON-TAX REVENUES (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) Calendar Quarter Total General Fund Total Tax Revenue Total Corporation Taxes Total Consumption Taxes Total Other Taxes Total Nontax Revenue | Corporate Tax

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

2% 4.4% 6.9% Note: Net job gains exclude self-employed. Values for 2018 reflect data for the first quarter of 2018 (house price index) or are forecasts by the IFO (all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates Non-motor sales tax Wages (withholding) June.04.2018 9 Personal Income Tax Revenues -10%

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

2% 4.4% 6.9% Note: Net job gains exclude self-employed. Values for 2018 reflect data for the first quarter of 2018 (house price index) or are forecasts by the IFO (all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates Non-motor sales tax Wages (withholding) June.05.2018 8 IFO Initial Revenue Estimate FY

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platt ppt.pdf

of Mil. Reserves Ag. Services Pennsylvania Wages by Industry: shares of Total Wages Pre-recession peak (2008Q2) Trough (2009Q3) Current Quarter (2011Q3) www.bea.gov Changes in Wage Shares by Industry 15 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0 Insurance Construction Durable Manufacturing Pennsylvania Wages by Industry: Changes in shares of Total Wages , Pre-recession peak (2008Q2) to Current Quarter (2011Q3) www.bea.gov State Personal Income 16 Total Personal Income 2011Q2 to 2011Q3 Percent Change Total Personal Income 2010Q3

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

8 Note: Professional Services includes the Management and Administrative sectors. Value for 2019 Q1 is annualized change for the first quarter. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. FYTD Revenues Through May June 11, 2019 7 May 2018 May 2019 Dollar Payment Shifts Due to Tax Law Change June 11, 2019 12 Tax Year PIT 2012-18 2015 2016 2017 2018 Quarterly 3.5% 16.1% -3.2% 11.5% -5.6% Finals 4.2% -7.5% -0.9% 6.4% 25

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

29 P.M. each weekday) ac- count for 45% of total ridership. SEPTA total ridership declined by more than one-quarter for FY 2019-20 due to COVID-19 and related mitiga- tion efforts. Ridership fell to under 224 million for 553 15.6 Truck 64,847 65,211 67,961 4.8 Job Growth by Multimodal & Related Industry Source: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Occupational Employment Statistics (rail only). Trucking accounted for 60% of all freight tonnage moved

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

Efficiency % Paper campaign expense reports data entered within 3 business days 35% 69% 57% 60% 79% 85% Outcome % Quarterly lobbying reports filed online 4 85% 87% 89% 95% 100% 100% % Campaign expense reports submitted electronically 39% 40% 38% 40% 42% 42% Total number of calls answered via Spanish language line or via the Commonwealth's interpreter services line. 4 Quarterly lobbying reports are statutorily required to be filled electronically since 2018. Professional and Occupational Affairs | Page 15 Activity 4: Professional and Occupational

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

data from U.S. Census Bureau. Unemployment, jobs and business data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Regional Awards and Business Statistics 1 All grants and loans associated with this activity awarded by DCED promotion agencies in domestic and international tourism markets. Currently, the agency notes that most funds (ap- proximately three-quarters) dedicated to tourism marketing efforts are used to support local projects, in- cluding local visitor bureaus, sporting events and festivals, and not

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

 But payroll employment down ~17% for April  Due to types of workers affected: lower wage and part-time Quarterly and annual payments delayed to July 15  March and June quarterly, April 15 final payment | ~$1.4 billion shift Taxpayers can delay employer share of federal payroll taxes  Delay 50%

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novak ppt.pdf

the tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further employment and spending cuts Gross Domestic Product Pennsylvania * 4-quarter growth rates in real terms Percent -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Personal Income GDP Personal income declined Buy local. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month) Previous New Previous New Previous New Quarterly data: 2011:Q4 2.6 2.6 9.0 9.0 148.7 115.3 2012:Q1 2.2 2

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

preliminary data for calendar year 2018 show that the state economy expanded by 2.1% in real terms (excludes inflation). Quarterly annualized growth rates were as follows: 0.7% (Q1), 4.0% (Q2), 3.2% (Q3) and 2.5% (Q4). In Q4). Similar to patterns for the U.S., the state data show a deceleration of economic growth after the second quarter. Data for 2019 Q1 will be released at the end of July. Consumer Debt Increases Modestly in 2019 Q1 On

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

property, and real estate transfer taxes. The report also discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for 2017 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released 4 th quarter state GDP data. For the entire year, the Pennsylvania economy expanded at a real rate of 1.8%, led by

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

2018 Q1. The data show that Penn- sylvania ranked 19 th in real GDP growth (2.0%) for the first quarter (quarterly annualized growth rate). Pennsylva- nia underperformed Virginia (2.4%), but outperformed New Jersey and Ohio (1.6%), Maryland (1.5%

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

1,316 15.4% pent-up demand Income – Withholding 8,131 0.3% Income – Other 3,100 ‘ 8.1% final quarterly payments strong, includes $100m from PPP All Tobacco 891 3.7% Inheritance 964 3.3% Realty Transfer 465 14.9% 000s) 51 -96 -160 -231 -229 Home Values 5.1% 4.8% 8.3% 10.8% --- Notes: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. All other rates are year-over-year. Sales tax adjusts for shifts and transfers. Wages-Salaries growth

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MRU_2021_08.pdf

million, 0.4%). Personal income tax (PIT) revenues hit estimate at $978.8 million for the month. A shortfall in quarterly payments (-$2.6 million, -5.7%) offset an overage in annual (+$4.3 million, 14.9%) payments, while withholding essentially 6 11.7 -39.2 Withholding 903.4 796.4 1,771.0 1,719.0 13.4 3.0 Quarterly 42.4 35.4 94.8 502.0 19.8 -81.1 Annual 33.0 44.3 72.1 967

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MRU_2021_04.pdf

date for tax year 2020 returns. Withholding payments fell below estimate (-$13.2 million, -1.5%) for the month and quarterly payments exceeded estimate by $20.0 million (6.2%). FYTD PIT collections total $12.93 billion and are $589.4 4 55.1 19.0 Withholding 884.4 906.5 8,997.3 9,034.2 -2.4 -0.4 Quarterly 343.6 112.8 2,082.1 1,339.8 204.5 55.4 Annual 495.6 92.2 1

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MRU_2021_01.pdf

7.46 billion. PIT collections came in $255.0 million (-18.9 percent) below estimate for January, mainly due to quarterly payments, which were $245.7 million below estimate (-55.6 percent). Withholding payments were $2.7 million (0.3 percent 30.1 9.5 Withholding 886.7 1,058.7 6,032.2 6,271.0 -16.2 -3.8 Quarterly 196.3 482.7 1,276.1 1,189.1 -59.3 7.3 Annual 13.0 26.4 1

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MRU_2020_11.pdf

21.6 percent). The monthly result was due to shortfalls in withholding (-$173.8 million), annual (-$7.0 million) and quarterly (-$7.4 million) payments. FYTD PIT collections are under estimate by $17.4 million (-0.3 percent), but exceed estimate 7 -21.4 20.8 Withholding 659.0 827.5 4,099.4 4,299.2 -20.4 -4.6 Quarterly 11.5 20.4 994.3 617.7 -43.8 61.0 Annual 13.4 21.7 1,136.4

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MRU-2020-10.pdf

6 million (2.7 percent). FYTD PIT collections are $170.9 million (3.2 percent) above estimate. The surplus in quarterly ($116.7 million) and withholding ($93.4 million) payments more than offsets the FYTD shortfall in annual payments of $39 1 -11.8 29.4 Withholding 818.0 963.3 3,440.4 3,471.7 -15.1 -0.9 Quarterly 88.0 72.8 982.8 597.3 20.9 64.5 Annual 118.5 125.3 1,123.1

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

million, $120.6 million (25.5 percent) higher than expected. The overage was primarily attributable to higher than anticipated third-quarter estimated payments for tax year 2020 ($93.2 million, 24.9 percent), as corporate profits have held up better than 7 4.3 44.7 Withholding 903.4 803.0 2,622.4 2,508.4 12.5 4.5 Quarterly 392.8 440.2 894.8 524.6 -10.8 70.6 Annual 37.0 34.6 1,004.6

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MRU-2020-06.pdf

collections for June were below estimate by $213.7 million (-17.4 percent). Shortfalls in withholding (-$75.4 million) and quarterly (-$218.7 million) payments were partially offset by an overage in annual payments ($80.4 million). FY 2019-20 PIT 5 -15.5 -8.9 Withholding 756.2 805.7 10,542.8 10,443.9 -6.1 0.9 Quarterly 150.1 366.2 1,528.6 1,922.4 -59.0 -20.5 Annual 110.1 31.5 763

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

are summarized in Table 1. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found in the next section. 1 1 Quarterly estimates for the Motor License and Lottery Funds were not revised from those published by the IFO on August 27 768 PIT - Withholding 923 796 903 818 659 1,046 884 962 1,117 898 835 997 10,837 PIT - Quarterly 467 35 393 88 12 86 442 21 50 324 25 348 2,289 PIT - Annual 923 44 37 119

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

95 +10 ‐160  Concerns about wage growth in 2015 motivate a minor reduction in withholding.  Recent trends in quarterly payments motivate a small downward revision to the April final payment.  Projected growth in April payment still strong (+17.5%). 28.Jan.2015 23 Personal Income Tax Withheld Quarterly Annual Total July to January +$11 ‐$8 ‐$8 ‐$5 February to June ‐16 ‐12 ‐22 ‐50 Total Change ‐5 ‐20

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

CY 2009. These market conditions discouraged new drilling activity and caused a slowdown in production growth. Data for the first quarter of 2021 from DEP show that Pennsylvania production accelerated, growing by 5.4% from the first quarter of CY 2020. DEP data on new wells spud show, however, that drilling has not accelerated despite stronger prices through

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

Data COVID Job Losses Affect Younger Workers Most Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. ▪.The preliminary data are incomplete because it only reflects jobs losses at the very beginning of 2020 Q2. ▪.Hence, the data only reflect job losses of -7.2%, whereas data for entire quarter show job losses of -14.0%. Independent Fiscal Office 21 February 2021 Minimum Wage Rates by State 2021 Rank 2021

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

strong (roughly 60,000 net new jobs last year) and wages increasing at a solid pace (4.2% in latest quarter). Moreover, median existing home values increased by 4.4% last year, while total mortgage debt of Pennsylvania consumers was flat these effects take time to fully manifest themselves. Most researchers believe that dynamic effects will offset one-eighth to one-quarter of the projected reduction in tax revenues. That concludes my opening remarks and I would be happy to address any

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

92 -17 -134 -206 U.S. Labor Productivity 1.7% -0.3% 10.6% 4.6% -- Note: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. Wage growth for 2020 Q3 and Q4 based on adjusted withholding. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor year. Labor market data are not seasonally adjusted. U.S. Labor Productivity is for All Nonfarm Businesses and is a quarterly annualized rate. State productivity data not published. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

FY 2019-20 (May 2019) Official Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 (June 2019) Revenue Estimate Performance (July 2019) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates (August 2019) Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2019) Performance Based Budgeting PBB Plan: Department of Criminal 24,495 Change in Retail-Wholesale Sector Jobs Change in Food and Drink Establishment Jobs Change in Healthcare Jobs Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau. Note: Excludes self-employed, independent contractors and military. 10 Net Domestic Migration Trends Top

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Testimony-02-2020.pdf

Existing Home Values 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% -- Year-Over Year Growth Rate or Change QUARTERLY DATA 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Real GDP 2.7% 2.5% 2

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

the gross ROI is 23 cents per tax credit dollar, which implies that the tax credit is one-quarter self-financed. For the net fiscal impact (which reflects the alternative use of tax credit monies), the net ROI is 16 cents

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

6% United States 7.8% 17.9% 4.1% 5.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Calculations by IFO. Table 2.5 Average Growth in Number of Business Establishments: 2014 to 2018 Section

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx

credit. ▪ Many different varieties. Difficult to compare across states. ▪ Overall, PA is less generous than most other states. Roughly three quarters awarded by Gov. Action Team. ▪ May be part of a larger package. Hard to know marginal impact . ▪ GAT awards are

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf

Many different varieties. Difficult to compare across states.  Overall, PA is less generous than most other states. Roughly three quarters awarded by Gov. Action Team.  May be part of a larger package. Hard to know marginal impact.  GAT

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RTR-2015-04.pdf

8% 5.9% 2.4% Nonwithholding 1,224.2 18.8% 2,506.6 12.1% 19.0% 11.7% Quarterly 289.8 12.1% 1,288.6 7.9% 14.3% 6.5% Annuals 934.3 21.1% 1,218

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RTR-2015-03.pdf

3.8% -0.1% 3.5% Nonwithholding 147.4 20.8% 1,282.4 6.3% 8.7% -3.4% Quarterly 39.3 23.4% 998.8 6.8% 6.8% 4.8% Annuals 108.1 19.8% 283.6 4

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RTR-2015-02.pdf

3.7% 4.1% 3.6% Nonwithholding 42.1 17.4% 1,135.0 4.7% 9.1% -3.7% Quarterly 18.2 36.9% 959.4 6.2% 9.7% 4.7% Annuals 24.0 6.0% 175.5 -2

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RTR-2014-11.pdf

0 3.4% 3.3% 3.0% Nonwithholding 24.5 1.9% 569.7 0.7% 1.5% -6.5% Quarterly 14.8 7.5% 444.6 2.4% 2.2% -1.3% Annuals 9.7 -5.7% 125.1 -5

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RTR-2014-10.pdf

9 3.8% 3.7% 3.0% Nonwithholding 115.0 0.8% 545.2 0.6% 1.6% -6.6% Quarterly 46.9 4.7% 429.8 2.3% 2.8% -1.4% Annuals 68.1 -1.8% 115.5 -5

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RTR-2014-08.pdf

1 3.7% 3.6% 2.8% Nonwithholding 37.3 2.7% 83.9 -4.0% 9.4% -5.8% Quarterly 24.2 16.7% 57.5 4.1% 1.4% -0.2% Annuals 13.1 -15.9% 26.5 -17

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RTR-2014-07.pdf

3 4.1% -1.8% 1.6% Nonwithholding 46.7 -8.7% 46.7 -8.7% 7.4% -5.8% Quarterly 33.3 -3.5% 33.3 -3.5% 0.1% -0.4% Annuals 13.3 -19.6% 13.3 -19

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RTR-2014-05.pdf

2.5% 3.4% 2.5% Nonwithholding 52.4 -10.3% 2,288.5 -8.0% -14.4% -6.4% Quarterly 21.0 -2.8% 1,214.7 -0.2% 3.7% -0.1% Annuals 31.4 -14.7% 1,073

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RTR-2014-04.pdf

1% 9.2% 3.9% Nonwithholding 1,030.1 -17.1% 2,236.1 -8.0% -14.0% -6.4% Quarterly 258.7 2.4% 1,193.8 -0.2% 3.5% -0.2% Annuals 771.5 -22.1% 1,042

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RTR-2014-03.pdf

2.5% 3.2% 2.5% Nonwithholding 122.1 15.7% 1,206.0 1.6% -3.8% 9.5% Quarterly 31.9 21.1% 935.1 -0.9% -8.4% -0.2% Annuals 90.2 13.9% 270.9 11

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RTR-2014-02.pdf

2.2% 2.0% 2.4% Nonwithholding 35.9 8.8% 1,083.9 0.2% -6.4% 9.0% Quarterly 13.3 -8.7% 903.2 -1.5% -8.4% -0.6% Annuals 22.6 22.6% 180.6 9

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RTR-2013-12.pdf

1 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% Nonwithholding 115.3 1.8% 681.2 6.2% 2.0% 12.5% Quarterly 100.6 -0.7% 534.7 5.7% -2.8% 6.3% Annuals 14.7 22.2% 146.5 8

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RTR-2013-11.pdf

5 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% Nonwithholding 24.1 -10.5% 565.9 7.2% 7.0% 13.2% Quarterly 13.8 -10.7% 434.1 7.3% 7.0% 7.8% Annuals 10.2 -10.2% 131.8 6

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RTR-2013-10.pdf

7 2.5% -2.0% 1.6% Nonwithholding 114.1 5.4% 541.8 8.1% 7.5% 12.8% Quarterly 44.8 -4.8% 420.3 8.0% 7.5% 7.7% Annuals 69.3 13.3% 121.5 8

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

forecast, contributing to much of the error. Most of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are generally motivated by business profits, capital Independent Fiscal Office | Page 3 gains, rents, interest and dividends. The

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

Personal Income - Total 12,561 3.7% 13,014 3.6% Withholding 9,397 3.6% 9,671 2.9% Quarterly 1,821 10.9% 1,874 2.9% Annual 1,344 -3.6% 1,470 9.4% Other Tax Revenue

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO’s official estimate occurs before June sales tax remittances and the quarterly estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO’s official estimate occurs before June sales tax remittances and the quarterly estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

about one-half of the statutory rate. (See Table 1.6.) The ETR for Arkansas is about three-quarters of the statutory rate, and the ETR for Oklahoma is about two-thirds of the statutory rate. Table 1.6 (next page

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

than forecast, contributing to much of the realized error. Most of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents and dividends. Data for tax year 2016 show

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

contributing to much of the realized error. Most of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents and dividends. Data for tax year 2016 show actual declines

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

contributing to much of the realized error. Most of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents and dividends. Data for tax year 2016 show actual declines

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

contributing to much of the realized error. Most of the PIT overprediction (-$391 million) was attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents, interest and dividends. Preliminary data for tax year 2016 show

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

8 Note: Professional Services includes the Management and Administrative sectors. Value for 2019 Q1 is annualized change for the first quarter. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. FYTD Revenues Through April May 20, 2019 7 April 2018 April 2019 Dollar

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Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf

3 2.7% 2.7% 3.3% Nonwithholding 312.2 9.6% 393.0 9.5% 9.5% 3.6% Quarterly 291.6 8.8% 342.2 8.4% 8.4% 0.3% Annuals 20.6 22.1% 50.8 17

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Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf

6 6.2% 7.1% 4.2% Nonwithholding 108.2 28.1% 501.2 13.1% 12.5% 4.4% Quarterly 47.0 17.4% 389.2 9.4% 9.1% 0.3% Annuals 61.2 37.9% 112.0 28

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Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf

5 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% Nonwithholding 26.9 -33.8% 528.1 9.2% 9.1% 3.2% Quarterly 15.5 -15.1% 404.7 8.2% 8.5% -0.2% Annuals 11.4 -49.0% 123.4 12

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Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf

2.8% 3.0% 1.7% Nonwithholding 58.4 -7.7% 2,488.6 15.1% 18.0% 14.7% Quarterly 21.6 -9.5% 1,217.3 9.9% 1.2% 10.2% Annuals 36.8 -6.6% 1,271

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Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf

2.8% 2.3% 3.0% Nonwithholding 105.5 1.7% 1,187.2 10.5% 10.1% 10.0% Quarterly 26.3 -1.9% 943.2 12.6% 14.7% 13.6% Annuals 79.2 3.0% 244.0 3

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Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf

2.7% 2.6% 2.7% Nonwithholding 359.7 5.3% 2,848.3 13.7% 16.1% 13.7% Quarterly 276.3 0.6% 1,493.6 8.1% 1.1% 8.1% Annuals 83.4 24.4% 1,354

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf

3 17.1% 7.3% 3.8% Nonwithholding 51.1 14.0% 51.1 14.0% 4.3% 13.7% Quarterly 34.5 13.2% 34.5 13.2% 1.1% 8.1% Annuals 16.6 15.5% 16.6 15

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf

8 3.4% 3.1% 3.5% Nonwithholding 44.8 18.9% 44.8 18.9% 12.5% 3.6% Quarterly 30.5 13.6% 30.5 13.6% 12.1% 0.3% Annuals 14.4 32.2% 14.4 32

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Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf

2.7% 2.9% 1.9% Nonwithholding 33.0 -14.6% 1,081.7 11.5% 13.8% 10.0% Quarterly 14.5 5.8% 916.9 13.1% 17.3% 13.7% Annuals 18.4 -25.8% 164.8 3

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Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf

9 3.0% 3.3% 3.4% Nonwithholding 113.3 20.3% 641.4 11.0% 13.3% 4.0% Quarterly 101.3 23.0% 506.0 10.9% 16.5% 1.4% Annuals 12.0 1.6% 135.4 11

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf

9 2.6% 2.3% 2.7% Nonwithholding 36.3 1.1% 87.4 8.3% 5.9% 13.7% Quarterly 20.7 2.9% 55.2 9.1% 2.0% 8.2% Annuals 15.6 -1.2% 32.2 6

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf

6 2.6% -1.7% 2.4% Nonwithholding 35.9 -0.4% 80.7 9.5% 11.7% 3.5% Quarterly 20.1 -2.9% 50.6 6.4% 10.7% 0.1% Annuals 15.8 3.0% 30.1 15

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

Income 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 3.6% 1.3% 1.6% 2.0% 1.9% Year‐Over‐Year Quarterly Growth Rates Forecast from IHS Global Insight, January 2013. Federal Tax Changes for 2013 American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

requirement is met on a statewide basis. The reporting of expenditures for federal reimbursement can be lagged up to eight quarters, which means that the final determination of federal funding eligibility may not be known for up to two years. The

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

the U.S., real GDP for 2021 Q1 is less than 1% lower than the level for 2019 Q4, the quarter prior to the pandemic. However, payroll employment was lower by 8.2 million jobs (-5.2%). Hence, nearly the same

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

Highlights include:  Firms that received a loan under $150,000 comprised 85 percent of all firms and nearly one-quarter ($5.1 billion) of total loans.  There were 205 firms (0.1 percent) that received a loan between $5

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

that the three income groups report different compositions of Total Income. For the low income group, wages comprise roughly three-quarters (76.1 percent) of Total Income while partnership and S corporation income and capital gains comprise 1.4 percent. For

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RB-2015-04.pdf

The report also Ðinds that 30.0 percent of those workers were under age 20 and somewhat more than three‐quarters (77.4 percent) were employed on a part‐time basis. 4 Following the conventions used by the U.S. Congressional

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QRE_FY15-16.xlsx

3 Personal Income Tax Withholding 2,314.3 2,356.9 2,516.2 2,328.2 9,515.6 Quarterly 404.1 197.0 442.2 647.4 1,690.7 Annuals 49.4 97.0 145.6 1,163

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

was flat Sales – Motor Vehicle -16 General weakness PIT – Withholding 31 Steady gains PIT – Other -12 Timing shifts – finals to quarterlies Cigarette -10 Unusual recent weakness Gaming Expansion 85 Pick up from first two auctions Loan-Lease-Transfers -67 Lease-transfers

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

but decent.  Business profits continue to lag.  Limited borrowing by PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. PA Economic Forecast 7/14/2017 27 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

month lag to coincide with withholding and economic activity. Withholding growth rates are adjusted for extra deposit days during the quarter. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

8% 13.5% Gasoline Prices ‐28.2% ‐28.0% ‐27.3% ‐18.0% Year‐ over‐year growth rates for respective quarters. The growth in wages and salaries is based on personal income tax withholding. The growth in consumer prices is based

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. Wages (withholding) Non-motor sales tax Concern: Federal Deficits and Interest Rates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10-Year

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

tax years Sales - Non-Motor +$168 very strong growth +7.6% Sales - Motor Vehicle +$44 strong growth Personal Income -$200 quarterly PIT affected by stock market Gaming Expansion +$72 see slide detail Escheats -$44 much lower remittances All Other +107 realty

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

6.6% 5.8% n.a. Note: All growth rates are year-over-year, except Real GDP which is a quarterly annualized growth rate. Non-Motor Sales (base) excludes internet sales: (1) ecommerce/nexus, (2) digital downloads and (3) marketplace sales

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Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

9.6% 9.5% 8.2% n.a. Note: YOY denotes a year-over-year growth rate. QA denotes a quarterly annualized growth rate. Sources: Independent Fiscal Office, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. IFO

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

half of the residents were age 63 or older, compared to the U.S. weighted average of less than one quarter. That same year, 86% of residents were re- ported with levels of severe or profound disability and there- fore require

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

4 $1,285 $35 $349 $2,630 $602 -- # Mission Ready Packages 5 -- -- -- 19 19 25 % AREPs attending CRCC quarterly training 2 Notes: Response Operations 5 Mission Ready Packages are a type of mutual aid or agreement between emergency responders to lend

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

enhanced payments to both traditional UC and PUA claimants. An unknown amount of monies flow out of state. Federal Payments – Quarterly Pattern June 17, 2021 3 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 Expanded

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

August Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director August 25, 2021 Latest Quarterly PA Economic Data August 25, 2021 1 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 Real GDP -35

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NGPR-2015-2H.pdf

Report Tables 4A and 4B show that Susquehanna County was the top producing county in the state, representing nearly one-quarter of all horizontal well production. Each of the top ten producing counties registered increases in the number of producing wells

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NewsStand_2019_September.pdf

expect lower typical mortgage payments through June 2020. According to IHS Markit, personal disposable income increased for the first two quarters of 2019. Moderate income gains and falling mortgage rates have reduced financial pressure on recent homebuyers. Health Issues and Incarceration

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

nominal GDP), then the growth rates increase to 4.6% (PA) and 4.9% (U.S.). For the first three quarters of 2018, real PA GDP expanded by 2.0%, compared to 2.8% for the U.S. The figures for

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

May 28, the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) released the housing price index for 2019 Q1. For Pennsylvania, the first quarter non-seasonally adjusted purchase-only index increased by 5.0% on a year-over- year basis. Nearly all states bordering

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

2019 Q1. Compared to the prior year, data show that Pennsylvania personal income grew by 3.5% in the first quarter with the larg- est earnings increase coming from government transfers. Transfer receipts grew by 7.7% year-over-year in

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

2018 Q2. For Pennsylvania, the data show a modest increase in per capita consumer debt (0.6%) from the same quarter in the prior year. While auto loan (0.5%), credit card (4.5%) and student loan (5.0%) debt increased

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MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf

million payment that did not recur this year. In addition, some personal income tax withholding collections associated with weekly and quarterly due dates that occurred in October 2014 were received in late September or early November for 2015. Monthly tax revenues

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

12.8 19.5 Withholding 1,046.1 913.1 5,145.5 5,212.3 14.6 -1.3 Quarterly 85.6 88.7 1,079.8 706.4 -3.5 52.9 Annual 27.9 26.2 1,164

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MRU-2020-08.pdf

9 6.3 72.6 Withholding 796.4 760.1 1,719.0 1,705.4 4.8 0.8 Quarterly 35.4 36.4 502.0 84.4 -2.8 494.8 Annual 44.3 27.6 967.6 57

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

1,022.8 126.1 126.1 Withholding 922.6 945.3 922.6 945.3 -2.4 -2.4 Quarterly 466.6 48.0 466.6 48.0 872.5 872.5 Annual 923.3 29.5 923.3 29

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MRU-2020-05.pdf

0 -1.9 -8.3 Withholding 752.3 930.9 9,786.5 9,638.2 -19.2 1.5 Quarterly 38.7 21.0 1,378.5 1,556.2 84.5 -11.4 Annual 156.1 14.1 653

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MRU-2020-04.pdf

0 -55.9 -8.8 Withholding 906.5 851.2 9,034.2 8,707.3 6.5 3.8 Quarterly 112.8 375.5 1,339.8 1,535.2 -70.0 -12.7 Annual 92.2 1,293.4

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

transfers. Data are lagged one month to coincide with withholding. Withholding growth rate controls for any extra deposit days in quarter. 0.7% 16 02.May.2017 2016-17 2017-18 Amount Growth Amount Growth General Fund $31,815 3.0%

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

2009. These market conditions have discouraged new drilling activity, and Pennsylvania production growth has been decelerating for the last several quarters. If new drilling and production growth continue to decline and/or decelerate, then prices may begin to recover. Bentek Energy

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Quartely Workforce Indicators. -123k -76k -128k -101k -81k 2019 Q3 2020Q3 Age 65-79 23.0% 19.5% Pennsylvania Economic Forecast

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

FY 2018-19 (May 2018) Official Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19 (June 2018) Revenue Estimate Performance (July 2018) Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates (July 2018) Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2018) Mid-Year Update FY 2018-19 (January 2019

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Real Time Economic Indicators November 14, 2019 11 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change Quarterly Data 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 Real GDP 2.0% 2.6% 3.2% --- --- Total

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

a solid pace (4.3% for 2018 Q4). Moreover, median existing home values increased by 4.3% in the latest quarter (2018 Q3) while per capita consumer debt increased modestly (1.8%) for the entire year. Overall, these data suggest sound

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

787 12,841 12,907 54 66 0.1% 0.1% Year-Over-Year Growth Rate, Change or Level PA Quarterly Economics 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.7% 2

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Quartely Workforce Indicators. -123k -76k -128k -101k -81k 2019 Q3 2020Q3 Age 65-79 23.0% 19.5% Pennsylvania Economic Forecast

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

10%) by 2020.  JUA Loan ($200 million) and PlanCon (no appropriation this year). Economy Hits Soft Patch in Third Quarter.  A $200 million hit to revenues.  Appears temporary. Outlook is improving. Shift from MLF to General Fund ($300

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

with a median age of 43.6 years. Of those over age 65, a little more than one-quarter were in the elderly age cohort (over 80 years old). By comparison, data for 2010 show that approximately 15.4 percent of

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

capital gains. For tax year 2017, Pennsylvania taxpayers reporting federal adjusted gross income that exceeded $250,000 reported roughly three- quarters of total capital gains for tax year 2017, and that income comprised approximately one-sixth of their total adjusted gross

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

risk shift is reduced due to the exclusion of hazardous duty employees from the proposal. Those employees comprise approximately one-quarter of payroll for SERS over the projection period. The analysis also reviewed the impact in the first, second and final

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2002_drop_report.pdf

another tax qualified plan, in accordance with IRS rules. A variety of other distribution methods exist within some plans, including quarterly and monthly payments options. Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLAs). A large percentage of DROPs provide COLA increases to the DROP

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

21 state-level public employee pension plans in 16 states that are DC or have a DC component. Nearly one-quarter of these plans were implemented during the past five years, suggesting that strong investment returns of recent years provided some

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Releases

spending or utilization. Tags: brief , credits , development , economic , incentives , research , tax Full Report Natural Gas Production Report, 2021Q3 November 22, 2021 | Natural Gas This report for the third quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of

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Links

Profits • Monthly Personal Income • New Residential Sales • Case-Shiller Home Prices • Consumer Confidence PA Economic Indicators • Labor Force and Employment • Quarterly Personal Income • Gross State Product • Business Outlook, Philadelphia Fed State Government • Department of Labor and Industry • Department of Revenue • General

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