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NAP, REAP, EEEP, VGP and KSDZ Tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Reviews. Tags: credit, eeep, ksdz, nap, reap, review, tax, vgp
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROI Michaela Miller gave a brief presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The reap tax credit was used as a case study. 10/26/2022
NAP, reap, EEEP, VGP and KSDZ Tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Reviews. 04/26/2021
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on the cost and environmental impact of agricultural best manage- ment practices (BMPs) for measures to increase usage of BMPs. This analysis examines available data and other issues that determine the effectiveness of the REAP Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and comments can be Hits: 81
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf 8102 of Title 24 of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes are amended and the section is amended by adding definitions to read: § 8102. Definitions. The following words and phrases when used in this part shall have, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise rollover or direct trustee-to-trustee transfers. Section 102. Section 8103 of Title 24 is amended by adding subsections to read: § 8103. Construction of part. * * * (f) Exclusive source of rights and benefits.--Regardless of any other provision of law, pension and Hits: 55
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf next five fiscal years. Highlights and conclusions are as follows: Economic Trends The economic forecast projects moderate growth. In particular: • Real growth remains modest for the US (2.0 percent) and the Commonwealth (1.6 percent) for 2012. • Unemployment remains elevated for the US (8.8 percent) and the Commonwealth (7.9 percent) for 2012. • Real growth for the US peaks in 2014 (3.4 percent) with elevated unemployment (7.9 percent). • Real growth for the Hits: 54
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). It allows comparisons of student progress and performance over time and across states. Reading and math are the only subjects for which representative samples are collected every two years. Over the past decade, Pennsylvania students have consistently outperformed the national average for the share of students proficient or above in reading and math. During the PBB Board hearing on March 9, 2022, the board requested that the report be amended and Hits: 29
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf 1 lists average annual growth rates for CY 2013 to CY 2024 for relevant forecasts. Pertinent results include:  Pennsylvania real gross state product (GSP) increases at an average rate of 2.2 percent per annum. Real GSP measures the total output of the Pennsylvania economy, excluding any inflationary gains due to rising prices.  Regional (PA- Hits: 26
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf presents the economic forecast used to project General Fund, Lottery Fund and Motor License Fund revenues. The forecast assumes modest real economic growth and continued strong inflation relative to historical rates. It also assumes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue Table 1.1 displays the forecast for the primary economic variables used for this revenue estimate. The forecast assumes that: ▪ Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) increases by 1.1% (2022) and 0.5% (2023). ▪ Wages and Salaries paid Hits: 23
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf presents the economic forecast used to project General Fund, Lottery Fund and Motor License Fund revenues. The forecast assumes modest real economic growth and continued strong inflation relative to historical rates. It also assumes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement Table 1.1 displays the forecast for the primary economic variables used for this revenue estimate. The forecast assumes that: ▪ Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) increases by 1.4% (2022) and 0.9% (2023). ▪ Wages and Salaries paid Hits: 23
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf Construction and Construction ...................................................................... 19 Activity 6: Capitol Police .................................................................................................... 21 Activity 7: Facilities and Energy Management ...................................................................... 23 Activity 8: Real Estate Management .................................................................................... 27 Activity 9: Risk and Insurance Management ........................................................................ 31 Activity 10: Diversity, Inclusion and Small Business Opportunities ......................................... 33 Activity 11: Metrology for payment of customer agency/entity expenses. Department of General Services Pre-Construction & Construction $421.1 (66.4%) Real Estate Management $62.5 (9.9%) Facilities & Energy Resource Management $54.4 (8.6%) Publications & Media Services $20.1 (3.2%) Fleet Hits: 22
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf entitlement programs. The second forecast assumes that expenditures grow in a manner that is sufficient to maintain the level of real services provided to service populations in the base year. Hence, most ex- penditure projections include an inflationary adjustment to compensate a smaller group of taxpayers. The actual contraction of the working-age cohort, which remits most state taxes, suggests that real per capita taxes for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase in demand for health Hits: 22
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf remains a $1.7 billion nominal revenue gain compared to the counterfactual without a pandemic. Some of those gains are real (e.g., higher profit margins, gains from remote working) and some are inflationary (e.g., permanently higher car prices, in- discussed as well. General Fund Tax Revenues ($ billions) $97 billion stimulus $23 billion stimulus $1.4 billion gain due to real and inflationary factors COVID mitigation partial reversion internet sales pick up $97 billion stimulus $23 billion stimulus $1.4 billion Hits: 22
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf entitlement programs. The second forecast assumes that expenditures grow in a manner that is sufficient to maintain the level of real services provided to service populations in the base year. Hence, most ex- penditure projections include an inflationary adjustment to compensate rates remain relatively low. Energy prices do not increase dramatically.  Wage earners receive raises that exceed inflation (i.e., real wages increase).  Payroll employment does not return to its pre-pandemic level until CY 2026. 2019 2020 2021 2022 Hits: 19
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf The second forecast assumes that expenditures grow in a manner that is sufficient to maintain the level of real services provided to service populations in the base year. Hence, most ex- penditure projections include an inflationary adjustment to compensate for rising The actual contraction of the working-age cohort, which remits the great majority of state taxes, suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase in demand for healthcare and Hits: 19
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast for calendar years 2019 and 2020 projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) will increase by 1.9 percent each year.  Wages and Salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents will Hits: 18
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) will increase by 1.9 percent (2019) and 1.9 percent (2020).  Wages and Salaries paid Hits: 17
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf most recent U.S. economic forecast published by IHS Markit, Wells Fargo and PNC Bank. Across the three forecasts:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) increases from 1.2% to 1.3% (CY 2023) and from -0.4% to 0 Hits: 16
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf Many recent articles have noted the negative impact that high rates of inflation are having on the real earnings of U.S. workers. 1 The latest monthly earnings release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirms that finding. The release found that real average hourly earnings (i.e., wages) for all U.S. workers declined 0.8% in September 2021 from the prior Hits: 16
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf CPI-U). • The IFO projects overall inflation to average 7.0% for 2022 and decelerate to 4.5% for 2023. Real Average Hourly Earnings Due to inflation, the real value of average hourly earnings for Pennsylvania payroll workers contracted by 3.8% in April 2022 relative to the prior Hits: 15
MTR-2016-12.pdf 4% 2.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. STATE GDP CONTRACTS The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for the second quarter of 2016. The release includes revised quarterly statistics for 2005 to 2016. The table below shows real GDP growth at annualized rates (first and second quarters and first half of 2016) for Pennsylvania and contiguous states. The Hits: 14
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf As you develop your report for the legislature, I encourage you to move beyond the myths and sift through the real data on whether Pennsylvania’s pensions for state and public school employees are overly generous. Here are the facts that or before 2002, since which there has been no ad‐hoc cost‐of‐living adjustment for retirees, has seen the real purchasing power of their pension eaten away 21.4% by inflation. Taking this inflation into consideration, the multiplier for retirees Hits: 14
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf assumptions. Potential consolidation savings and costs. • Administrative savings, property tax relief, state funding, salary standardization and debt service. Calculation of real estate tax millage. • Implications for taxpayers. 16.Dec.2014 3 Presentation Overview District-wide tax base with uniform tax rates 13 as base year: • Individual districts. • Consolidated district. 16.Dec.2014 4 Scope and Assumptions For the purpose of computing real estate tax rates, the analysis excludes: Building-level administrative costs. The impact of changes in federal funds. Costs related to Hits: 13
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf displays a summary of the Pennsylvania economic forecast used for this revenue estimate. The forecast assumes that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) decreases by 6.2 percent (2020) and increases by 6.3 percent (2021).  Wages and Salaries Hits: 13
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf displays a summary of the Pennsylvania economic forecast used for this revenue estimate. The forecast assumes that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) decreases by 5.6 percent (2020) and increases by 5.5 percent (2021).  Wages and Salaries Hits: 13
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf PA Real Average Hourly Earnings Contract, but Some Workers Gain In January 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released uses for the U.S. For December, the Philadelphia CPI-U YOY growth was 6.6%. After adjusting for inflation, real hourly earnings for all private workers contracted by 1.2%. (By comparison, real U.S. hourly earnings contracted by 2 Hits: 13
MER-2015-06.pdf bi-monthly basis. 8 June 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The 4.8% 4.6% 4.3% 4.6% June 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Snapshot: Real GDP Per Capita Growth by State In June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released statistics for real gross Hits: 13
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf shares corporate ownership with Aker Philadelphia Shipyard; and Banco Santander, the Spanish bank that holds a large minority interest in Reading-based Sovereign Bank. Divestment would send a public message that all listed companies and many other leading Pennsylvania employers are including by acquiring, developing, maintaining, owning, 6 selling, possessing, leasing or operating equipment, facilities, 7 personnel, products, services, personal property, real property 8 or any other apparatus of business or commerce. 9 "Company." A sole proprietorship, organization, association, 10 corporation, partnership Hits: 13
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf same level. 9 The list is generated annually by the Pennsylvania Department of Education based on com- bined math and reading Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA) scores. The maximum scholarship award available for an application without a disability is $8 rates of academic achievement proficiency were lower than economically disadvantaged public school students for math but were not different for reading. ▪ Eleventh grade scholarship students’ proficiency rates for English and math were comparable to economically disadvantaged public school students and higher Hits: 12
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf COVID-19 pandemic, the department submitted a request to the U.S. Depart- ment of Homeland Security (USDHS) to delay REAL ID implementation. On March 26, USDHS ex- tended the implementation date to October 1, 2021. Upon reopening driver licensing centers be- ginning in May 2020, the department suspended the issuance of REAL IDs to limit the number of customers visiting Driver License Centers through September 14, 2020. As of December 17, 2020 Hits: 12
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf the Pennsylvania Consoli- 8 dated Statutes is amended and the section is amended by adding a subsec- 9 tion to read: 10 § 8328. Actuarial cost method. 11 (a) Employer contribution rate on behalf of active members.--The 12 amount of the notwithstanding 14 any other provision of this section. 15 Section 2. Section 8502(k) of Title 24 is amended to read: 16 § 8502. Administrative duties of board. 17 * * * 18 (k) Certification of employer contributions.--The board shall, each 19 year in Hits: 12
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf Outcomes Soft Landing (~10%) ▪ No standard definition or time frame ▪ Inflation decelerates quickly towards Fed target | no recession Recession (~30%) ▪ Real GDP contracts | major stock market and housing correction ▪ Jobs stagnate or contract Stagnation or Growth Recession (~60%) ▪ Minimal real growth | continued strong inflation ▪ Real wages eroded in near term | hiring slows but still positive ▪ Stock market and home sales Hits: 11
Pensions potential cost savings if the early retirement option was offered in one-, five-, and ten-year increments; (2) value in ... read more SB 32 Summary • Miscellaneous 92 Muth Would require the State Employees; Retirement System (SERS) and the Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) to appear in front the House and Senate Appropriations Committees on an annual basis. ... read more SB 58 Summary • Survivor Benefits 54 Hughes Amending Titles 24 (Education) and 71 (State Government) of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Hits: 11
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf 9 20.4 General Fund (Restricted) 53.1 55.7 59.2 60.7 65.7 77.0 Real Estate Recovery Fund 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 Total 69.7 73.6 79.0 a professional license in Pennsylvania should be minimized to avoid barriers to employment. Analysis of these data in real- time will allow focus to be directed to licensure areas with longer processing times or statewide shortages of certain professionals. The department Hits: 10
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf and inflation ▪ Will workers return? | impact of general price and asset inflation ▪ Does a wage-price spiral emerge? Revenues permanent real and inflation gains from COVID Expenditures significant increase in healthcare costs ▪ Unclear how wage pressures and inflation will impact costs Economic Forecast: COVID Bubble November 15, 2021 8 Pre-COVID COVID Bubble Reversion 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 1.4% 1.7% -4.5% 4.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% Wages and Salaries 4.3% Hits: 10
MER-2014-04.pdf monthly basis. 8 April 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 (Preliminary rate there‐ fore a good proxy for economic activity in the Com‐ monwealth. A comparison of commercial truck vol‐ ume to real private gross state product (GSP) for Pennsylvania supports this narrative. Real private GSP is total economic output excluding the govern‐ Hits: 9
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf projected to rebound in 2017 after two consecutive years of decline. Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP 1.6% 2.2% 1.7% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6% 2.3% Personal Income 6.2% 5 or Year-Over-Year Growth Rate 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 Real GDP 0.9% 0.8% 1.4% 3.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3% Personal Income 3.5% 1 Hits: 9
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf projected to rebound in 2017 after two consecutive years of decline. Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP 1.6% 2.2% 1.7% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6% 2.3% Personal Income 6.2% 5 or Year-Over-Year Growth Rate 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 Real GDP 0.9% 0.8% 1.4% 3.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3% Personal Income 3.5% 1 Hits: 9
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Forecast: June 2019 vs January 2020 January 28, 2020 1 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP Jun 2019 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% Jan 2020 0.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1 6 57.7 54.6 Employment (000s) Jan 2020 58.8 65.6 45.6 45.4 45.7 Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised for 2017 and 2018. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Hits: 9
2002_drop_report.pdf L. 1005, No. 205), 1 known as the Municipal Pension Plan Funding Standard and Recovery Act, is 2 amended to read: 3 AN ACT 4 Mandating actuarial funding standards for all municipal pension systems, 5 establishing a recovery program for municipal act, 11 amended June 18, 1998 (P.L. 626, No. 82), is amended and the section is 12 amended to read: 13 Section 102. Definitions. 14 Except as provided in Chapter 7, the following words and phrases when 15 used in Hits: 9
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf 36 Retail Trade 238 342 103 43 Transportation/Warehousing 79 71 -8 -10 Information 208 216 8 4 Finance/Insurance/Real Estate 216 238 22 10 Services 361 464 103 29 Other/Miscellaneous 297 403 106 36 Total 2,359 3 reaches $18,500 or $28,000. Because the SP thresholds and exemption amounts have not been adjusted since 2003, the real value of the benefit has eroded over time. The dollar amount of erosion depends on the comparison year that is Hits: 8
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf the previous January 2021 estimate (top portion) and the forecast used for this revenue estimate. The current forecast assumes that: ▪ Real GDP (real gross domestic product) increases by 3.6% (2021) and 2.4% (2022). ▪ Wages and Salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents increases Hits: 8
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf 1%, customarily divided equally between buyer and seller. Base The tax is levied upon the actual consideration or price of real property and contracted-for improvements to property transferred by deed, instrument, lease or other writing. The tax is due upon Other States 123 122 139 139 155 173 176 176 Operators' Licenses 71 70 68 72 46 80 89 72 REAL ID 0 0 0 5 27 9 20 10 Other Misc. 15 19 27 10 -53 2 3 4 Spec Hits: 8
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf 1%, customarily divided equally between buyer and seller. Base The tax is levied upon the actual consideration or price of real property and contracted-for improvements to property transferred by deed, instrument, lease or other writing. The tax is due upon Other States 96 123 122 139 139 155 161 167 Operators' Licenses 76 71 70 68 72 46 77 71 REAL ID 0 0 0 0 5 27 7 8 Other Misc. 14 15 19 27 10 -53 4 4 Spec Hits: 8
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf divided equally between buyer and seller. Base The tax is levied upon the actual consideration or price of real property and contracted-for improvements to property transferred by deed, instrument, lease or other writing. The tax is due upon the presentation 76 71 70 68 72 56 76 Spec. Hauling Permit 27 37 33 32 37 37 33 33 REAL ID 0 0 0 0 0 5 30 10 Other Misc. 31 14 15 19 27 10 -59 4 Total 894 951 Hits: 8
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf divided equally between buyer and seller. Base The tax is levied upon the actual consideration or price of real property and contracted-for improvements to property transferred by deed, instrument, lease or other writing. The tax is due upon the presentation 54 76 71 70 68 74 73 Spec. Hauling Permit 28 27 37 33 32 37 37 38 REAL ID 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 30 Other Misc. 28 31 14 15 19 27 10 -54 Total 893 894 Hits: 8
MER-2014-06.pdf monthly basis. 8 June 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income 5% 5.2% June 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Snapshot: Pennsylvania GSP in 2013 Real gross state product (GSP) for Pennsylvania grew by 0.7 percent from $599.5 billion in 2012 to $603.9 Hits: 8
MER-2013-12.pdf latest three-month period. Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania December 2013 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania December 2013 Snapshot: What’s Driving Gross Domestic Product Growth? In the most recent quarter, real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 4.1 percent. The expansion represents the strongest Hits: 8
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf the previous January 2021 estimate (top portion) and the forecast used for this revenue estimate. The current forecast assumes that: ▪ Real GDP (real gross domestic product) increases by 3.8% (2021) and 2.4% (2022). ▪ Wages-Salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents increases by Hits: 8
jackson ppt.pdf Business equipment investment and consumer durables, supported by replacement demand, are driving near-term growth. • Strained household finances will limit real consumption gains to about 2%. • Fiscal policies will tighten, although the timing and scope is uncertain. • A recovery in housing this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP 3.0 1.8 2.0 2.4 Consumption 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 Residential Investment Hits: 8
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf 2020) and this October update. Compared to the June 2020 forecast, the IFO projects a smaller contraction of real GDP, a smaller reduction in wages and salaries paid to workers, the same magnitude of average job losses and slightly stronger inflation 1.2 contains (1) IFO estimates of foregone labor income due June 2020 Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 2.6% 2.3% -5.6% 5.5% Wages-Salaries 4.3% 4.2% -3.2% 5.0% Net Payroll Jobs Hits: 8
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf prior year’s contribu- tions, since the effective date of the standard. Accrual Versus Pay-as-you-go Accounting in Real Life To demonstrate the potential differences between accrual and pay-as-you- go accounting for OPEB, consider a study that be a strong incentive for governmental entities with available cash flow to commence funding their OPEB plans. Does GASB 45 Really Matter? If a sponsor’s financial statements are used to assist in borrowing or are oth- erwise subject to scrutiny Hits: 8
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf 2019 Forecast: June 2018 vs Jan 2019 January 29, 2019 1 Annual Growth or Change 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP Jun 2018 0.9% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% Jan 2019 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2 0 62.9 62.5 57.1 Jan 2019 50.0 62.9 70.9 58.7 54.7 Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised for 2016 and 2017. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Hits: 7
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) will increase by 2.3 percent (2018) and 2.2 percent (2019).  The Philadelphia and Pittsburgh Hits: 7
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) will increase by 2.3 percent (2018) and 2.2 percent (2019).  The Philadelphia and Pittsburgh Hits: 7
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf incentive is accomplishing its legislative intent ▪ Quantitative outcome data is often lacking October 24, 2022 3 Resource Enhancement and Protection (REAP) Credit rate 50-75% of agricultural best management practice (BMP) project costs ▪ May be used in combination with other public transferred ▪ Annual program cap was $10 million | Raised to $13 million (2019) October 24, 2022 4 Resource Enhancement and Protection (REAP) Goals ▪ Encourage private investment in the implementation of best management practices (BMPs) on agricultural operations ▪ Reduce the financial burden on Hits: 7
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf IFO Mid-Year Update Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 3 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP Jun 2017 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% Jan 2018 0.6% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% Wages- 000s) Jun 2017 52.2 54.4 52.5 Jan 2018 52.2 60.4 61.8 60.1 Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised for 2016. Wage growth for 2017 based on withholding trends through December. Source: Historical data Hits: 7
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf All Other 2.3 0.9 2.3 2.4% Information 4.3 2.5 2.2 2.8% Finance-Real Estate 2.8 4.6 -3.1 7.3% Professional Services 9.9 2.6 14.0 7.1% Administrative All Other 1.8 2.1 0.5 3.1% Information -0.6 -1.2 -3.3 1.6% Finance-Real Estate 5.1 0.9 -4.3 5.9% Professional Services 1.7 1.4 3.6 7.3% Administrative Hits: 6
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf a new methodology to examine 138 state-level minimum wage changes from 1979 to 2016 where the mean real increase in the minimum wage was 10.1 percent. The dataset used is the same used for this analysis: the Merged Outgoing research on the minimum wage examine values of the Kaitz index that do not exceed 55 percent, or real minimum wage increases that average roughly 10 percent. The Kaitz index is the ratio of the new minimum wage to the state Hits: 6
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf Pandemic May 26, 2020 1 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Real GDP 2.1% 1.9% 2.3% n.a. Wages-Salaries 4.7% 3.5% 4.3% 3.7% Net in green status (assumption) COVID-19 Moves Economy into Recession May 26, 2020 3 COVID-19 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 2.6% 2.3% -6.2% 6.3% Wages-Salaries 4.3% 4.2% -3.2% 5.5% Net Hits: 6
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf Pandemic June 22, 2020 1 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 Real GDP 2.1% 1.9% 2.3% n.a. Wages-Salaries 4.7% 3.5% 4.3% 3.7% Net green status (except Lebanon) COVID-19 Moves Economy into Recession June 22, 2020 3 COVID-19 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 2.6% 2.3% -5.6% 5.5% Wages-Salaries 4.3% 4.2% -3.2% 5.0% Net Hits: 6
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf 3.8% May 24, 2023 2 US Economic Forecasts May 24, 2023 3 Annual Growth Rates 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP IHS Markit 5.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% Wells Fargo 5.9% 2.1% 1.3% 0 CBO released February 2023. PA Economic Forecasts May 24, 2023 4 IFO IHS Markit 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 2.1% 1.6% 1.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.0% Wages-Salaries 9.3% 5.3% 4 Hits: 6
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf 3.8% May 24, 2023 2 US Economic Forecasts May 24, 2023 3 Annual Growth Rates 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP IHS Markit 5.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% Wells Fargo 5.9% 2.1% 1.3% 0 CBO released February 2023. PA Economic Forecasts May 24, 2023 4 IFO IHS Markit 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 2.1% 1.6% 1.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.0% Wages-Salaries 9.3% 5.3% 4 Hits: 6
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf 18.9 -8.7 -5.7 Transport and Warehouse -27 -22 4 -9.1 -7.5 1.3 Financial and Real Estate -3 0 -1 -0.9 0.0 -0.2 Professional and Technical -21 -18 -13 -5.8 -5.0 48.8 58.6 9.8 20.1 Building and Garden - Retail 43.2 48.5 5.3 12.3 Real Estate 45.3 48.3 3.0 6.6 December Level (000s) Change 2019 to 2020 Subsector Detail: PA Employment Hits: 6
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf 18 Executive Budget. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 6 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 2.8% 0.7% Net Job Gains (000s) 64.7 39 S. Census Bureau. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 7 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 2.8% 0.7% Net Job Gains (000s) 64.7 39 Hits: 6
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf inflation. Annual Growth Rate 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 Real Gross Domestic Product 4.3% 2.1% 0.6% 3.9% 2.0% 0.7% 2.4% 3.0% Consumption 2016. Industrial Production Index is published by the Federal Reserve Board and measures output of the mining, Growth rates for Real GDP and components are quarterly annualized growth rates, all others are year‐over‐year annual rates. manufacturing and utility sectors Hits: 6
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf January 31, 2023 1 US Economic Forecasts January 31, 2023 2 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP IHS Markit 5.9% 2.0% 0.5% 1.8% Wells Fargo 5.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0 PNC released December 2022. PA Economic Forecasts January 31, 2023 3 IFO IHS Markit 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP June 2022 1.1% 0.5% -- 2.4% 2.1% -- Jan 2023 1.9% 0.5% 1.2% 2 Hits: 6
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf 0 1 2 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econ- omy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income have lowered trade barriers and forged free trade agreements. For Pennsylvania, U.S. Census data show that the level of real exports has dou- bled since 2002. For 2011, real exports totaled $34.8 billion, comprising 2.8 percent of U Hits: 6
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf o Short Answer: No. o Economy has absorbed some hits. o A few more to come. Tax Revenues. o Best real-time indicator of PA economic conditions. Upcoming Studies. o HB 76 and SB 76. o Five-Year Outlook. 24 . Sept and health care benefits. o Monetary Policy - pull back to start soon. 24 . Sept . 2013 4 Contributions to U.S. Real Growth 2012 2013 2014 Real Economic Growth 2.8% 1.6% 2.6% 1 Consumer Purchases 1.5% 1.3% Hits: 5
platt ppt.pdf Total Durable Manufacturing Construction Administrative & Waste Wholesale Trade Finance & Insurance Professional Services Nondurable Manufacturing Management Transportation & Warehousing… Retail Trade Information Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Accomodations & Food Service Other Services Utilities Farm Ag. Services Railroads Mining Military Arts, Entertainment, & Rec. Federal Civilian in millions of $) -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,00020,000 Total Information Railroads Military Ag. Services Farm Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Federal Civilian Govt State and Local Govt Nondurable Manufacturing Utilities Finance & Insurance Retail Trade Construction Arts, Entertainment Hits: 5
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data November 18, 2020 1 October 2020 Annual Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1.9% 2.4% -4.6% 3.0% Wages-Salaries Paid 4.3% 4.3% -2.0% 3.7% U 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% Latest Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Real GDP -5.8% -34.0% -- -- Wages-Salaries Paid 3.7% -6.5% -2.6% -1.0% Net Job Gains (000s Hits: 5
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis released county-level estimates of GDP from 2001 to 2018. In 2018, Philadelphia had the largest real GDP ($110.7 billion) of all Pennsylvania counties, while Cameron County had the lowest real GDP ($243.7 million). Between 2001 and 2018, Susquehanna (11.7% per annum), Sullivan (7.4%) and Bradford (6.1% Hits: 5
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Ranks 19 th in Real GDP Growth for 2018 Q1 On July 24, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for 2018 Q1. The data show that Penn- sylvania ranked 19 th in real GDP growth (2.0% Hits: 5
IFO_Letter_to_the_SCC.pdf Secretary Brown: In response to Senator Browne’s directive to develop performance measures for the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credit, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) offers the following guidance for your consideration. Ideally, the State Conservation Commission (SCC utilize an environmental model to project the pollution reduction that results from actual best management practices (BMPs) funded by the REAP Tax Credit during that year. The model would account for the type and geographic location of each BMP implemented. If Hits: 5
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf or Change AAGR or Average Change 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2000-06 2006-12 2012-18 Output and Income Real GDP 2.6% 2.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2.7% 2.6% 0.8% 2.3% Nominal GDP 4 or Change AAGR or Average Change 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2000-06 2006-12 2012-18 Output and Income Real GDP 2.0% 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 2.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% Nominal GDP 3 Hits: 5
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf and ResidentialCare -28 Accommodations -17 Amusements-Gaming -15 Retail-Building and Garden +4 Couriers andMessengers +15 Warehouse and Storage +21 Real Estate +4 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dec 2021 vs Dec 2019 Payroll Employment Levels Revert to 2007 6.0% Philadelphia CPI-U 0.4% 0.9% 1.4% 4.2% 4.8% 6.1% All Private Workers Real 3.9% 3.1% 2.4% -2.1% -0.4% -0.7% Inflation and Average Hourly Earnings Notes: Real Average Hits: 5
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf May 15, 2019 U.S. and PA Economic Trends May 15, 2019 1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 2.7% Wages-Salaries 5.1% 2.9% 4.6% 4 84 2.33 2.91 2.68 Non-Financial Corp. Profits -0.9% -5.4% 1.2% 10.7% ---- Pennsylvania Real GDP 2.0% 1.1% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% Wages-Salaries 4.0% 1.3% 4.0% 4 Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf adjusted. Annual Growth Rates for PA Economic Variables January 21, 2021 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Real GDP 2.4% -4.1% 3.5% 2.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% Wages and Salaries Recent PA Economic Growth Rates or Change January 21, 2021 6 2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 Real GDP 2.4% -5.8% -34.0% 35.5% -- Personal Income 3.6% 2.5% 13.1% 9.6% -- Wages Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf 2012 2016 2020 PA US +47,000 jobs per annum 3.2% average wage growth 2.1% inflation 1.1% real wage increase also known as a “flat line” Real GDP Growth Demographic Outlook Projections from the Pennsylvania State Data Center Official State Demographer Based on 2015 U.S. Census Hits: 5
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf February 19, 2021 6 PA Economic Growth Rates February 19, 2021 7 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Real GDP 2.4% -4.3% 3.5% 2.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% Wages and Salaries Recent PA Economic Growth Rates or Change February 19, 2021 8 2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 Real GDP 2.4% -5.8% -34.0% 35.5% 5.0% Personal Income 3.6% 2.5% 13.1% 9 Hits: 5
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf transmittal document provide context for these sections with additional material on the benefit and funding structure of the Systems. Some readers may prefer to review the appendix before proceeding to the next section. Current Law (Act 120 of 2010) The retirement to Senate Bill 1, Printer’s Number 853, as amended, contains several items that we believe are important to the reader. The significant items are summarized below, followed by other items. All are addressed in further detail throughout this actuarial note Hits: 5
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf Use Development: The Seattle Experience,” DeLisle, James R. and Terry V. Grissom (April 2021). “How to Invest in Mixed-Use Real Estate Projects,” Ducker, A., Real Assets Advisor, vol. 5, no. 1 (January 2018). “Mixed-Use Development: A Review of Professional Literature,” Rabianski, Joseph S. Ph Hits: 4
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf to mine Bitcoin. 25 These operations provide a predictable and stable flow of revenues that are largely independent of the real-time wholesale market price. At this juncture, the impact of Bitcoin revenues for long-term viability is unclear, but revenues price received, by roughly 5% to 6%. The dollar value of line loss and congestion should be proportional to the real-time market price so that a 5% reduction at $40 per MWh is worth $2.00, but falls to $1 Hits: 4
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf Description of the historical use and ownership of site along with a map of the site.  Photos of the real estate parcels.  Completed Parcel Affidavit certifying that the site had no permanent vertical structures as of July 1, 2011 cited as a material factor in their decisions, other factors were considered, including: geographic proximity to customers, the availability of real estate, labor costs, lease costs, real estate taxes, personal property taxes and sales taxes. Occupants of the Bethlehem KSDZ also Hits: 4
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf A firm must be growing (i.e., annual revenue gains) to be eligible for the program and must reapply each year. KIZ firms age out of the program once they have been in operation for eight years. For the purpose of the number of firms located in the zone. They may also face pressure from local government officials and real estate developers to expand or modify existing zones. Coordinators are not DCED employees and do not receive state compensation for their efforts Hits: 4
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf of total taxes to state and local govt’s.  Potential for significant reduction in tax.  Firms with much real property gain. 1. Large manufacturers. 2. Firms engaged in rental of real estate. 3. Certain telecommunication firms. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 25 Businesses Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf May 26, 2021 2 Pennsylvania Economic Forecast May 26, 2021 3 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.4% -4.4% 3.6% 2.4% Philadelphia CPI-U 2.0% 0.9% 3.5% 2.7% Trends May 26, 2021 4 Annual Growth Rate or Change 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 Real GDP -34.0% 35.5% 3.7% -- -- Philadelphia CPI-U 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 3.5% Hits: 4
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf October 29, 2020 Modest Improvement to 2020 Economic Forecast October 29, 2020 1 June 2020 Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 2.6% 2.3% -5.6% 5.5% Wages-Salaries Paid 4.3% 4.2% -3.2% 5.0% 453 310 Philadelphia CPI-U 1.3% 2.0% 0.5% 1.5% October 2020 Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1.9% 2.4% -4.6% 3.0% Wages-Salaries Paid 4.3% 4.3% -2.0% 3.7% Hits: 4
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf The U.S. forecast (released later) reflects all federal stimulus provisions. For CY 2020, the forecast projects that:  Pennsylvania real GDP growth declines by 2.5 percent, but rebounds by 3.3 percent in CY 2021.  Wages-salaries decline accommodation-food service and administrative support sectors. The final sector includes placement of temporary and seasonal workers.  U.S. real GDP falls by 5.4 percent, personal consumption expenditures fall by 4.7 percent and corporate domestic profits decline by Hits: 4
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf Trade 238 342 103 43 Transportation/Warehousing 79 71 -8 -10 Information 208 216 8 4 Finance/Insurance/Real Estate 216 238 22 10 Services 361 464 103 29 Other/Miscellaneous 297 403 106 36 Total 2,359 3,037 677 a new methodology to examine 138 state-level minimum wage changes from 1979 to 2016 where the mean real increase in the minimum wage was 10.1 percent. The analysis uses the Merged Outgoing Rotation Group dataset from the U.S Hits: 4
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf consumer sales May 20, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections May 20, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP June 2018 0.6% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% May 2019 1.1% 1.7% 2.1% 1 Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Economic Forecast vs Long-Run Growth May 20, 2019 3 2013-18 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% Wages-Salaries 3.4% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% New Hits: 4
Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf Growth Rate or Gains Pennsylvania Economics 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Real GDP 4.5% 0.1% 0.6% 3.6% 2.8% n.a. n.a. Wages and Salaries 4.3% Rate or Gains U.S. Economics 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Real GDP 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 4.2% 3.4% 2.2% n.a. Wages and Salaries 4.9% Hits: 4
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf housing markets June 11, 2019 1 Economic Growth Close to Projections June 11, 2019 2 Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP June 2018 0.6% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% May 2019 1.1% 1.7% 2.1% 1 Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Economic Forecast vs Long-Run Growth June 11, 2019 3 2013-18 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% Wages-Salaries 3.4% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% New Hits: 4
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf 2021 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 3 Theme: improving the lives of PA residents ▪ NAP – incentivizes investment in distressed communities ▪ REAP – reduces water pollution from agricultural operations ▪ EEEP – increases economic activity in the live entertainment sector ▪ VGP – encourages expansion of the investor participation ▪ Consider creation of an interagency electronic tax credit system April 26, 2021 5 Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Credit 50-75% of agricultural best management practices (BMP) ▪ Credits offset roughly 42% of project cost (avg. cost = $60,400 Hits: 4
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf DGLV), (2) conservation excellence and (3) conservation district funding. It also includes the administration of the Resource Enhancement and Protection (REAP) Tax Credit and nutrient management grants to counties to reduce agricultural pollution into the Commonwealth’s water resources and the 000s) 194 205 240 212 216 213 Tax relief provided ($ millions) Annual tax relief per parcel Conservation BMP projects using REAP Tax Credit 1 454 449 440 546 597 550 Farm acres covered by approved NMPs (000s) 1 455 457 229 Hits: 4
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf this implies the total cost per graduate was roughly $25,400. 1 TABE is a standardized test with questions in reading, language arts and math and used in adult basic and secondary education programs. Cadets are tested on entry and exit year in which the class began. There are two classes per year. ▪ TABE is a standardized test with questions in reading, language arts and math and used in adult basic and secondary education programs. Cadets are tested upon entry and exit Hits: 4
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf December 9, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data December 9, 2020 1 Annual Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1.9% 2.4% -4.5% 3.2% Wages-Salaries Paid 4.3% 4.3% -1.5% 4.2% U 1.3% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% Latest Quarterly Data 2020.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 Real GDP -5.8% -34.0% Dec 23 -- Wages-Salaries Paid 3.7% -6.5% -2.6% -0.5% Net Job Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_November.pdf mortgage (1.1%) and home equity loans (-5.8%). For total debt, the per capita increase was 1.8%. PA Real Gross Domestic Product Surges in 2018 Q2 On November 15, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary state real Gross Domestic Product data for 2018 Q2. On a quarterly annualized basis, the Pennsylvania economy expanded by 3.6%. That Hits: 4
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf for 2017; same trends. Continued low inflation has mixed effects.  Margins get squeezed. Hard to pass on costs.  Real wage gains. Does not translate into spending. Healthcare-Soc. Service dominates job gains.  About two-thirds of these gains Economic Trends Dot Com Boom/Bust 1996-02 Housing Boom 2002-07 Housing Bust 2007-11 Tepid Recovery 2011-17 Real GDP 2.4% 2.0% 0.6% 1.8% Wages-Salaries 4.7% 4.3% 1.6% 3.3% Avg Hits: 4
MTR-2016-10.pdf slack. Therefore, an acceleration or slowing of total wage growth can serve as both a coincident (i.e., current or real time) and leading indicator of the state economy. Since 2010, statewide annual wage growth has ranged from 2% to 4% uptick in inflation and a tighter labor market will translate into further acceleration of average wage growth, and possibly higher real and nominal economic growth for Pennsylvania and the U.S. October 2016 Monthly Trends Report Source: U.S. Bureau of Hits: 4
Kling_Presentation.pdf CBO Comparing CBO’s Estimates With Others’: Estimates of the Effects of the 2017 Tax Act on the Level of Real GDP CBO published that last comparison in its April 2018 report about the budget and economic outlook. 15 CBO CBO economic variables differed from CBO’s estimates Characterizing Uncertainty 18 CBO Characterizing Uncertainty: The Uncertainty of CBO’s Projections of Real GDP As the most recent report on the 10-year budget and economic outlook showed, in CBO’s baseline projections Hits: 4
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf  An exception: PA labor market posts solid gains.  Recent U.S. data confirm weak PA trends: 2017 Q1 Real GDP +0.7% growth, +0.3% consumer spending. The Revenue Forecast.  All forecasts except tobacco and IPT underperform.  changes. The Big Picture 2 02.May.2017 Change to PA Economic Forecast Growth Rates or Change 2016 2017 2018 Real PA GDP June 2016 1.9% 2.0% n.a. May 2017 0.6% 1.8% 1.9% Philly CPI- Hits: 4
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf Note: Millions of dollars. 6 Economic Trends 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Output and Income Real GDP 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2 161.1 172.9 5.5 11.8 Information 105.9 87.8 80.8 -18.1 -7.0 Finance-Real Estate 329.8 313.2 325.2 -16.6 12.0 Professional-Business Services Computer Design 52.0 62.0 Hits: 4
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf  Personnel costs are 13% of state budget (excludes PSERS) State economy operates at long-term potential | No recession  Real GDP +1.8% | Wages-Salaries +3.9% | CPI-U +2.0% No future use of one-time shifts, delays or 2019 9 PA Economic Forecast November 14, 2019 10 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 1.1% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% Wages and Salaries 1.3% 4.0% Hits: 4
IFO ppt.pdf Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Relative Net Investment Low 0% 3% 5% 8% 10% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Real Net Investment / Real GDP January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference PA Employment Returns to 2005 Q1 Level Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 November 16, 2017 9 +2.1% real GDP growth +1.3% real GDP growth +1.9% real GDP growth +2.7% inflation +1.4% inflation +2.1% inflation Demographic Outlook Projections from Hits: 4
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf 72 3.54 3.63 3.65 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% n.a. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The implies that costs are deducted over many years, not immediately in the year the outlay is made. These revisions increased real GDP by $501 billion in 2012. (See table.) www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Report A u g u Hits: 4
Testimony-02-2020.pdf Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | February 18, 2020 Annual Growth Rate or Change ANNUAL DATA 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% Inflation -0.1% 0.6% 1.3% Over Year Growth Rate or Change QUARTERLY DATA 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Real GDP 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% -- Inflation 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% Hits: 3
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf partnerships, S corporations and sole proprie- tors) and corporations. 30 Initially, this income transfer does not change the real size of the state economy, but alters relative prices and the income flows to workers and busi- ness owners. Having identified the that may have otherwise flowed out of the state. Revenue Implications from Initial Income Transfer Assuming that the real size of the Pennsylvania economy does not change and focusing solely on the transfer of income to lower-income workers, the following Hits: 3
RB 2019 RACP.pdf rural areas.  The significance of positive externalities likely associated with many projects that cannot be quantified. Positive externalities are real benefits to workers, consumers, businesses or residents that are typically not measured, but nonetheless exist. Examples include reduced traffic, lower would, on net, be positive if all benefits could be measured and quantified. In these cases, private businesses do not reap all of the gains from the investment, and much of the benefit accrues to the general public. In the case Hits: 3
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Table 2 Reliance on Property Tax by School Districts in FY 2016-17 Quartile Real Estate Tax Collections Property Tax Percent of Total Revenue 1 $7,268 63.6% 2 $2,844 47.0% 3 1% 4 $1,344 16.9% ===== =========== Total $13,052 42.4% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Quartile is based on real estate collections as a share of total revenue. The first quartile consists of the 125 districts with the highest share Hits: 3
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 Real GDP 2.3% 1.9% n.a. n.a. Wages and Salaries 3.7% 2.2% 4.1% 1.8% based on the Philadelphia CPI‐U. May 13, 2016 3 Latest Annual PA Growth Rates 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% Wages and Salaries 3.7% 1.8% 4.0% Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf 3%7.9%11.4%3.6% 6.2% Growth Rate or Change Pennsylvania Economics 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Real GDP (QA) -0.5%3.2% 4.5% 2.5% 2.0% n.a. n.a. Wages and Salaries (YOY) 3 1% 4.9% n.a. Growth Rate or Change U.S. Economics 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Real GDP (QA) 1.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 4.2% n.a. Wages and Salaries (YOY Hits: 3
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf 5.0% 6.0% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 May 24, 2017 11 Note: Average growth rates for real Gross Domestic Product. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. US GDP 2011-16 US 2.1% US 3.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 May 24, 2017 12 Note: Average growth rates for real Gross Domestic Product. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. US GDP PA GDP PA 1.5% PA 2.1% Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf average for all PA nursing homes) Policymakers can monitor outcomes related to additional resources for new or existing programs ▪ PennDOT REAL ID program ▪ DMVA Keystone State ChalleNGe Academy April 27, 2021 3 Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) April 27, 2021 4 Government Operations -- -- 1 -- $62 0 64 Municipal Roads and Bridges -- -- 30 -- -- -- 30 Payment to Turnpike Commission -- -- -- -- 28 -- 28 Homeland Security - REAL ID -- -- -- 26 -- -- 26 Other 14 -- 20 3 9 -- 46 Total 845 398 291 234 100 15 1,882 Note: Amounts Hits: 3
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf investigated case of maltreatment following enrollment in a home visiting program. 8 Early language and literacy activities measure parents who read/tell stories and sing with their child daily. Home Visiting and Family Support | Page 57 Nurse Family Partnership provides intensive Program state ap- propriation and TANF and assists around 17,500 women experiencing a crisis pregnancy. The primary grantee is Real Alternatives. Family planning services are primarily funded from the Breast Cancer Screening appropriation and provide about 67,000 services a Hits: 3
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf Focus: labor market and demographics ▪ Focus: inflation and wages II Statewide Public School Employment, Payroll and Wages ▪ COVID jobs contraction ▪ Real Average Weekly Wage contracts III Act I Index Outlook ▪ Statewide Average Weekly Wage (SAWW) remains elevated ▪ Significant and sudden jump held by PSERS members. Source: Employment from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Government – Education. Total Payroll from PSERS. Real PA Average Weekly Wage Contracts March 16, 2023 12 Average Weekly Wage contracts past two years Philadelphia CPI-U 2021 Hits: 3
Newsstand_2019_March.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Real Gross Domestic Product Expanded by 2.8% in 2018 Q3 On February 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q3. The data show that Pennsylvania real GDP expanded at a 2.8% rate for 2018 Q3, compared to 3.4% for the U.S. These growth Hits: 3
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf PA Economic Growth Rates or Change March 31, 2021 7 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 Real GDP -5.8% -34.0% 35.5% 3.7% --- Personal Income 2.5% 13.1% 9.0% 3.5% --- Wages- Change Labor Force (000s) 51 -96 -160 -231 -229 Home Values 5.1% 4.8% 8.3% 10.8% --- Notes: Real GDP is quarterly annualized growth rate. All other rates are year-over-year. Sales tax adjusts for shifts and transfers Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf sectors recorded the largest earnings declines in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania Records 10th Largest Percent Decrease in State GDP in Q2 Pennsylvania real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 34.0% in 2020 Q2, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 2. National real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.4%, contracting in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Pennsylvania Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The specific data that will be tracked and recent trends are as follows:  Change in Payroll Jobs the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” It is no longer defined as two consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction. Monthly Economic Update July 2022 Pre-COVID Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 5 Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle, including recession periods or economic expansions, and is highly correlated with real GDP. Source: The Conference Board. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu Hits: 3
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016. • Forecasts: June 2014 vs. January 2015. • Drop in gas prices: SUT and other impacts. • Real wage growth: boost to consumer confidence? FY 2014‐15 General Fund Revenues. • Performance through January. • Revisions to FY 2014‐15 at FY 2015‐16 Revenues. 28.Jan.2015 2 Today’s Presentation 28.Jan.2015 3 2014 2015 2016 Notes Real GDP June 2014 1.6% 1.8% n.a. low worker productivity Jan 2015 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% Hits: 3
Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf Bureau. Forecast by IFO. Annual Growth Rates of PA Economic Variables October 6, 2021 2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 1.4% 1.7% -4.5% 4.5% 2.5% Wages and Salaries Paid 4.3% 4.4% -0 3% Retail and Wholesale Trade 826 788 -38 -4.5% Transportation and Warehouse 289 294 5 1.6% Financial and Real Estate 334 334 -1 -0.2% Professional and Technical 363 371 8 2.2% Admin and Waste Management 322 277 Hits: 3
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf revenues exceed expectation  Car sales tax breaks record | projected $2 billion shift largely captured August 19, 2020 1 Latest Real-Time PA Economic Data August 19, 2020 2 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2019.3 2019.4 2020.1 2020.2 Real GDP 1.9% 2.3% 0.0% -- Wages and Salaries Paid 3.4% 4.6% 3.3% -7.0% Net Hits: 3
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf Information 213.9 359.7 254.2 9.8% Finance and Insurance 283.5 276.9 293.2 10.2% Real Estate and Rental 64.5 55.9 59.1 2.1% Professional, Scientific and Technical 150.0 166.8 151 profits out of the state. The reversal of this effect would enhance revenues, but would likely have modest implications for real state economic growth.  A real economic or dynamic effect. The 50 percent reduction in the tax rate should encourage Hits: 3
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf 854 7,275 51 Information 2,382 6,646 52 Finance and Insurance 1,267 2,434 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 115 230 54 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 3,797 8,858 56 Administrative and Support Services the program. See Table 7. The low scenario represents the “worst case”, in that the program generates no real jobs and yields a negative impact of roughly $17.2 million. In this case, the original funds ($10.1 million) could have Hits: 2
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf 9 Fleet Management 41 4.8 17.5 2.8 Surplus Supplies & Operations 40 4.7 5.1 0.8 Real Estate Management 25 2.9 62.5 9.9 Risk and Insurance Management 13 1.5 12.3 1.9 Protection Excess Insurance Coverage Total Facilities & Energy Resource Mgmt. $31.9 $0 $16.6 $0 $5.0 $0 $53.5 Real Estate Management 2.7 24.7 5.9 0 0 0 33.3 Capitol Police 0 0 0 13.9 Hits: 2
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx 9 Fleet Management 41 4.8 17.5 2.8 Surplus Supplies & Operations 40 4.7 5.1 0.8 Real Estate Management 25 2.9 62.5 9.9 Risk and Insurance Management 13 1.5 12.3 1.9 Protection Excess Insurance Coverage Total Facilities & Energy Resource Mgmt. $ 31.9 $0 $16.6 $0 $5.0 $0 $ 53.5 Real Estate Management 2.7 24.7 5.9 0 0 0 33.3 Capitol Police 0 0 0 13.9 Hits: 2
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf 9 Fleet Management 41 4.8 17.5 2.8 Surplus Supplies & Operations 40 4.7 5.1 0.8 Real Estate Management 25 2.9 62.5 9.9 Risk and Insurance Management 13 1.5 12.3 1.9 Protection Excess Insurance Coverage Total Facilities & Energy Resource Mgmt. $31.9 $0 $16.6 $0 $5.0 $0 $53.5 Real Estate Management 2.7 24.7 5.9 0 0 0 33.3 Capitol Police 0 0 0 13.9 Hits: 2
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf insurance Current law 26.08 28.90 28.52 27.88 TCJA 14.30 20.82 20.71 18.61 Real estate and rental and leasing Current law 26.50 30.22 29.30 27.99 TCJA 10.85 22.96 24.63 23.63 TCJA 12.76 19.34 19.91 16.46 Penn Wharton Budget Model 3 Finance and Real Estate Industry Scenario 2018 2023 2027 2040 All industries Current law 21.18 23.53 22.95 21.93 TCJA Hits: 2
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf to Normal Growth by 2025 January 24, 2023 5 COVID Reset Steady State 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Real GDP -4.8% 4.4% 1.5% 0.0% 1.2% 1.7% 1.8% Nominal GDP -3.5% 9 COVID Growth January 24, 2023 11 US Corporate Domestic Profits record levels S&P 500 Index PA Economy Nominal GDP real and inflation growth PA Home Values but growth decelerating quickly 0.90 1.10 1.30 1.50 1.70 Hits: 2
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real Gross State Product May 2012 1.9% 1.5% 2.3% 3.0% Jan 2013 1.2% 1.8% 1 7.5% 12.5% 14.2% U.S. Forecast 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 4 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real Gross Domestic Product May 2012 1.7% 2.2% 2.4% 3.4% Jan 2013 1.8% 2.3% 1 Hits: 2
REU-2019-10.pdf  Pennsylvania wage growth remains strong. Preliminary data for the third quarter (not shown) show similar trends.  U.S. Real GDP growth decelerated slightly due to weak business investment.  Pennsylvania retail sales showed exceptional strength in October. Some analysts latest three months of data. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth Hits: 2
RB-2016-02.pdf Financing Authority (Act 22 of 2004 Projects) Building Pennsylvania $4,628 $86 Provides loans to fund managers for investment in real estate projects in the state. Fund managers that receive investments from the program must match dollar‐for‐ dollar with privately‐raised capital. That money is used for gap financing related to viable commercial, industrial and multi‐use real estate development projects. First Industries Guarantee Program $0 $0 Provides loan guarantees for projects related to tourism and agriculture. Approximately Hits: 2
Public_Data-Motor_License_Fund.xlsx Company Franchise Act 89 OCFT- Fuels Act 89 OCFT- Liquid Fuels | Special Hauling Permits Reg. Other States-IRP Operators Licenses Real ID Vehicle Reg. & Titling Misc. Collections | Gross Receipts Aeronautics Fines Vehicle Code Fines Misc.-Treasury Misc.-Trans-portation Misc.-General Company Franchise Act 89 OCFT- Fuels Act 89 OCFT- Liquid Fuels | Special Hauling Permits Reg. Other States-IRP Operators Licenses Real ID Vehicle Reg. & Titling Misc. Collections | Gross Receipts Aeronautics Fines Vehicle Code Fines Misc.-Treasury Misc.-Trans-portation Misc.-General Hits: 2
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf Dec.2014 11 Economic Forecast Provides Neutral Benchmark. • Assumes growth rates return to historical averages. • Reflects non-recession years only. • Really, a budget simulation exercise. Some Positives and Negatives. • Energy prices very low. Inflation and interest rates low. • Flat wage growth The Economic Outlook 12 3.Dec.2014 Pennsylvania Economic Forecast Average Annual Growth Rate 2002-08 2008-14 2014-20 Real State GDP 1.5% 0.8% 1.9% Nominal State GDP 4.4% 2.5% 3.9% Wages and Salaries Hits: 2
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real State GDP 1.1% 0.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% Philadelphia CPI-U 2.7% 1 5 5.3 1 United States 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.3 n.a. 22.Jun.2015 3 Real Per Capita GDP Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 22.Jun.2015 4 Net Change = +$582 million Revised Hits: 2
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf it is 0.5%. Notable Economic Trends May.01.2018 6 PA Economic Growth Rates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP 2.3% 0.6% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% Wages-Salaries 4.1% 1.3% 3.3% 4 IFO. May.01.2018 7 Recent PA Economic Growth Rates 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 Real GDP 2.0% 1.8% 1.4% -- -- Wages-Salaries 2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 4.2% -- Net Job Gains Hits: 2
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf of 7.25%.  Healthcare inflation does not accelerate from current rates. State economy operates at long-term potential.  Real GDP +1.9% | Wages-Salaries +3.9% | CPI-U +2.1%.  No recession or economic slow down. A “best by IFO. PA Economic Assumptions March 1, 2019 8 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 0.9% 1.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% Wages and Salaries 1.3% 4.0% Hits: 2
perez ppt.pdf in 10 states  On target in 5 states  Below estimate in 3 states (MI, OK and SD)  Real Estate Transfer  17 states reported real estate transfer taxes coming in on target or above expectations. 4 states—Hawaii, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania—reported transfer Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Request_May_4_2021.pdf a regional breakdown of the Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) and a county breakdown of the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credits as requested as follow-up during the Performance-Based Budget Board hearing on April 26, 2021. If you Dauphin............................................ 170.0 Carbon.............................................. 4.5 Cumberland....................................... 159.0 Luzerne............................................. 3.0 Indiana.............................................. 155.3 Statewide Total................................ 10,720.1 REAP Tax Credit Awards by County for FY 2019-20 Note: Thousands of dollars. Credits were not awarded to Allegheny, Cameron Hits: 2
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf 21.0% -6.3% -4.1% Transport and Warehouse -27 -12 1 -9.0% -4.2% 0.3% Financial and Real Estate -9 -8 -9 -2.7% -2.4% -2.7% Professional and Technical -19 -10 -1 -5.3% -2.7% 12 Wrap Up: Some Technical Notes 13 IFO data allows us to “front run” official published wage data  Use real-time withholding tax data | very good indicator of final wage growth  SAWW for 2018-2020 is largely known now Hits: 2
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf 2021 Latest Quarterly PA Economic Data August 25, 2021 1 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 Real GDP -35.5% 3.7% 6.0% October -- Wages-Salaries Paid -1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 12.0% 8 child tax credit payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates or changes are year-over-year except Real GDP. Wage growth rates for 2021.2 and 2021.3 are estimates by IFO based on withholding data. Source: U Hits: 2
novak ppt.pdf the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further employment and spending cuts Gross Domestic Product Pennsylvania * 4-quarter growth rates in real terms Percent -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Personal Income GDP Personal income declined • Transfer payments and capital outlook, use more than one. • Unlikely to find a method that works indefinitely. • Buy local. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month) Previous New Previous New Previous New Quarterly data: 2011:Q4 2.6 2.6 Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_May.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Real State GDP Growth is 2.1% for CY 2018 On May 1, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released for 2018 Q4. The preliminary data for calendar year 2018 show that the state economy expanded by 2.1% in real terms (excludes inflation). Quarterly annualized growth rates were as follows: 0.7% (Q1), 4.0% (Q2), 3.2% (Q3) and Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf sales increased for the sixth consecutive year. These factors produced stronger-than-anticipated revenues for wage, sales, business, property, and real estate transfer taxes. The report also discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for of Economic Analysis released 4 th quarter state GDP data. For the entire year, the Pennsylvania economy expanded at a real rate of 1.8%, led by the mining (17.5%) and information (4.8%) sectors, while the arts- entertainment (-0 Hits: 2
MTR-2016-09.pdf have declined in the U.S. (-0.9%) and Philadelphia (-1.2%) on a year-over-year basis. The latest reading shows that overall food price levels in the U.S. have declined for 9 consecutive months, which represents the longest units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 2
MTR-2016-06.pdf corporate profits. Those economic indicators can be used to assess the probability of a recession (i.e., a decline in real GDP in two consecutive quarters) within the next year. A recent Wall Street Journal survey of economists placed that probability units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 2
MTR-2016-04.pdf 1.0% on the final transaction price of all home and business sales. This realty transfer tax also provides a real-time measure of the state of the housing market, though there is typically a lag of one or two months units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 2
MTR-2015-10.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year 2 ModDate: 2015-11-02 17:54:42 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.16 (Windows) Title: MTR-2015-10-Final2 (Read-Only) Hits: 2
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf 42.0 41.7 59.7 176.1 Operators’ Licenses 18.5 16.9 18.9 17.2 71.5 Real ID 1.9 4.3 0.4 3.4 10.0 Vehicle Registration & Titling 207.4 175.6 188.9 3.0 million. Section 1031 Like-Kind Exchanges (Act 53) The act conforms with federal law regarding the exchange of real property held for productive use or investment under IRC § 1031. This provision applies to property placed into service in tax Hits: 2
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf 45.7 39.8 151.8 Operators’ Licenses 18.8 18.1 19.3 16.3 72.5 Real ID 7.6 7.4 7.8 7.5 30.3 Vehicle Registration & Titling 201.5 146.2 174.5 265.4 Page 9 Exemption for Beginning Farmers (Act 13) The act provides an RTT exemption for the transfer of real estate subject to an agricultural conservation easement to qualified beginner farmers. This provision takes effect July 1, 2019. Prior Law None. Fiscal Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics that are tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows:  Change in Payroll Jobs. The Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf Like the U.S. CPI, the regional CPI co-trended with the PPI through June and then diverged. The latest reading for October shows a YOY gain of 7.1%. (The All Items CPI for the metro region for October was Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle, including recession periods or economic expansions, and is highly correlated with real GDP. Source: The Conference Board. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdf Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf expenses of primary residences (2.3%). The CPI-U that excludes the Shelter component provides a more accurate measure of real-time consumer inflation because it reflects actual purchases during the month, and the data are not imputed. Moreover, analysts have Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf up roughly +12.0%). The CPI Less Shelter series grew +7.7% in December and is the best measure of real-time consumer inflation because it excludes foregone rent imputed to homeowners. The CPI Shelter series (33.0% of CPI) is Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdf Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf CPI-U excluding Shelter. (See rows 1 and 2 in table below.) The CPI-U excluding Shelter is a better real-time measure of consumer inflation because it excludes foregone rent imputed to current homeowners. Rent imputed to homeowners is 26% Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics that are tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle, including recession periods or economic expansions, and is highly correlated with real GDP. Source: The Conference Board. 5. Price is weighted average from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf 5% to 61.2% over the same time period. Productivity gains and LFPRs have direct implications for economic growth because real GDP growth is the product of the growth in worker productivity and growth in the number of workers. While an Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 2
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf Jan.2017 2 IFO Mid-Year Update 25.Jan.2017 3 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP Jun 2016 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% Jan 2017 2.8% 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% Total 000s) Jun 2016 48.6 50.1 50.6 Jan 2017 48.6 43.5 50.0 48.9 Note: Real GDP and Wage data revised from preliminary to final for 2015. Source: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Hits: 2
MER-2015-02.pdf monthly basis. 8 February 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income 2.2 ModDate: 2015-03-03 15:16:35 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.13 (Windows) Title: MER-2015-02 (Read-Only) Hits: 2
MER-2014-05.pdf monthly basis. 8 May 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income 9.1 Total Private Goods Industries 5.3 2.9 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.4 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, & leasing 6.4 5.4 4.7 3.7 3.3 3.5 Professional and business services 5 Hits: 2
MER-2013-11.pdf 2% 1.1% 1.1% n.a. Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income Currently, data suggest that the petrochemical manufacturing industry employs relatively few Pennsylvanians. For 2012, data from the U.S. Bu- reau of Labor Statistics show that the industry em- ployed roughly 600 individuals. However, the aver- age annual wage for this Hits: 2
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf 18.9 -8.7 -5.7 Transport and Warehouse -27 -22 4 -9.1 -7.5 1.3 Financial and Real Estate -3 0 -1 -0.9 0.0 -0.2 Professional and Technical -21 -18 -13 -5.8 -5.0 48.8 58.6 9.8 20.1 Building and Garden - Retail 43.2 48.5 5.3 12.3 Real Estate 45.3 48.3 3.0 6.6 December Level (000s) Change 2019 to 2020 Subsector Detail: PA Employment Hits: 2
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf coming months. Pennsylvania Economy The state economy seems to be in a good position, with the latest Philadelphia CPI-U reading running low (0.8% in December), jobs growth strong (roughly 60,000 net new jobs last year) and wages increasing overall budget. In the short term, the IFO projects a modest economic boost due to the act. We project higher real GDP and wage growth, and strong growth for dividends and capital gains due to the significant reduction in the federal Hits: 2
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf 2011-17 PA 1.6% US 2.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for 2017 are preliminary. real GDP growth Future Challenges for State Budget Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Ratio Computation treats expenditures for pensions and Social Security as savings. Source: U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey, northeast region. Age 75+ Real Housing Debt Doubles Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 13 Cumulative Growth: 2003 to 2015 Composition of Debt Total Home Hits: 2
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf Annual Growth Rates Sector 2015 2016 2017 PA Economic Variables 2015 2016 2017 Mining -3.8 -9.0 -2.1 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.6% 1.1% 3.0% Construction 6.5 3.7 5.6 Wages and Salaries 4 Note: Jobs data for 2017 through July (average gain). Wage growth rate and CPI-U for first half of 2017. Real GDP is year-over-year rate for first quarter. Author: Matthew Knittel Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-08-29 17:06 Hits: 2
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf 2012 Economic Outlook The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 15 15.Nov.2012 Pennsylvania 1992-01 2002-11 2012-18 Real GSP 2.2% 1.0% 1.9% Personal Income 4.6% 3.7% 4.0% Wages and Salaries 4.8% Variables Economics The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 16 15.Nov.2012 Pennsylvania 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GSP 1.7% 1.5% 2.2% 2.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% Personal Income 3.1% 3 Hits: 2
Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf Growth Rate, Change or Level PA Quarterly Economics 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 2.1% --- --- Statewide Wages and Salaries 4.3% 3.2% 4 2% 2.7% --- Year-Over-Year Growth Rate, Change or Level PA Annual Economics 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% Statewide Wages and Salaries 4 Hits: 2
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf Revenue Estimate (June 12 th )  Uses Global Insight economic forecast May 2012.  Assumes modest recovery for PA.  Real Gross State Product 1.5% (2012) and 2.3% (2013)  Unemployment Rate 7.4% (2012) and 7.1% (2013 10.Jul.2012 22 2012 GPNP Conference Summary (continued)  Likely scenario: slow, plodding growth through the election ~ 1.5% real growth. Small decline, if any, in unemployment rate.  Stronger fundamentals suggest little chance of another recession. 10.Jul.2012 Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf to Normal Growth by 2025 November 15, 2022 8 COVID Reset Steady State 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Real GDP -4.8% 4.4% 1.5% 0.0% 1.2% 1.7% 1.8% Nominal GDP -3.5% 9 15, 2022 12 US Corporate Domestic Profits record levels S&P 500 Index through Nov 11 PA Economy Nominal GDP real and inflation growth PA Home Values growth decelerating quickly 0.90 1.10 1.30 1.50 1.70 2018 Hits: 2
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf Economic Forecast: COVID Bubble March 4, 2022 8 Pre-COVID COVID Bubble Reversion 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 1.4% 1.7% -4.5% 4.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% Wages and Salaries 4.3% Care -28 Accommodations -17 Amusements- Gaming -15 Retail- Building and Garden +4 Couriers and Messengers +15 Warehouse and Storage +21 Real Estate +4 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dec 2021 vs Dec 2019 Recent Rapid Acceleration of Inflation March Hits: 2
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf Office currently employs 13 full-time staff. 5 Pennsylvania Economic Trends 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Macro Growth Rates Real GDP 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% Wages and Salaries 4.1% 1.3% All Other 1.0 4.5 0.8 2.9% Information -0.2 1.3 1.0 1.4% Finance-Real Estate 3.8 4.4 4.5 5.5% Professional Services 3.0 2.4 6.7 6.0% Administrative Hits: 2
DotPlotData.xlsx 179,287 $63,162,925 5,267 $11,992 4,761 1,392 29% 3,840 5,267 73% 114067002 Reading SD 4220040 13-City: Small Urban $284,673,744 $5,487,716 $41,066,722 $1,975,086 $11,233 9,228 $65,831,677 7,557 $8,711 4,761 1,392 29% 3,840 5,267 73% 114067002 Reading SD 4220040 13-City: Small Urban $284,673,744 $5,487,716 $41,066,722 $22,658 $22,658 $238 Hits: 2
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Economic Forecast: Stronger Wages and Inflation January 31, 2022 2 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Real GDP June 2021 2.4% -4.4% 3.8% 2.4% -- Jan 2022 1.7% -4.5% 4.1% 2 31, 2022 4 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 Real GDP -3.4% -0.3% 11.5% 4.1% -- Wages-Salaries 1.8% 2.2% 11.9% 9.9% 9 Hits: 2
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf 10 Corporate Net Income Tax 11 Realty Transfer Tax 12 The Pennsylvania Economy and Revenues - Key Forecast Risks 13 Suggested Reading 14 1 Independent Fiscal Office - Overview Background The office was created by Act 120 of 2010. Matthew Knittel serves as housing market downturn in Europe, and increasing volatility in China’s growth rates are the primary factors here. 14 Suggested Reading The following articles are recommended because they address some of the issues that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) considers in Hits: 2
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf 62 2.2% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income r 2 0 1 2 The housing market has experienced strong gains in 2012. According to the National Association of Real- tors (NAR), the median price of an existing home in the U.S. rose 11.1 percent to $178,600 Hits: 2
2002_dbdc_report.pdf imposed upon the Boards. Creation of such a plan would, however, expand the range of the Boards’ fiduciary responsibilities. The real question, then, is whether the expanded scope of responsibility adversely impacts the Boards’ ability to manage the existing DB plan imposed upon the Boards. Creation of such a plan would, however, expand the range of the Boards’ fiduciary responsibilities. The real question, then, is whether the expanded scope of responsibility adversely impacts the Boards’ ability to manage the existing DB plan Hits: 2
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf not support or oppose any policy discussed on its website. Rather, analysis posted on this website is intended to inform readers of potential outcomes based on available data and research. The IFO welcomes any comments or suggestions. Comments and suggestions can Hits: 1
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf states and territories and 31% of the financing went to non-metropolitan counties. NMTC distributions supported manufacturing and industrial businesses, real estate construction and renovation projects and healthcare related projects. A Limited Review of the Utah Rural Jobs Act (2021) 15 Hits: 1
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf be registered as a 501(c)(3) to qualify. Business contributions may include cash, equipment and/or supplies, job training, real estate or technical assistance. 7 Pass-through entities are allocated $2.0 million annually with any unused portion reallocated for Hits: 1
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf unique character to downtown rural and urban areas. Although these impacts cannot be easily quantified, they have a real and meaningful impact on local communities. A recent news article emphasizes these points. 42 The article notes that St. Louis has 7 Hits: 1
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf as opposed to 25 percent. A portion of the credit has been effectively siphoned off and has no real stimulative effect on the film-television production industry. The fourth column of Table 3 lists the base credit rate. The base credit Hits: 1
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf projects through partnerships with Local Development Districts, Small Business Development Centers and other entities, assisting businesses through workforce, market and real-estate development efforts. The budget for FY 2022-23 is $10.9 million. • Workforce and Economic Development Network (WedNet) provides Hits: 1
Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf all occupations • By millage against the assessed value of each occupation (with a maximum rate equal to the rate on real property) LOCAL GOVERNMENTS CONTINUE TO LEVY LOCAL SERVICES TAXES  1,210 municipalities levy a local services tax at the Hits: 1
SR2017-06.pdf and the Pennsylvania Department of Education. Calculations by the IFO. 1 The assessed value share is weighted by 2015 county real estate tax collections as reported by the Department of Community and Economic Development. 2 Totals are not supplied because they Hits: 1
SR2017-03.pdf reside in other states. In addition, the analysis does not control for the deductibility of state and local income and real estate taxes from the federal income tax. Those deductions reduce the state and local tax burden and would disproportionately benefit Hits: 1
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf 31 15% $5.45 Pittsburgh 301 2.71 15 0.41 Allentown 121 2.19 15 0.33 Reading 88 1.44 15 0.22 Lancaster 59 1.39 15 0.21 Harrisburg 49 1.24 15 0.19 Erie 96 Hits: 1
Senate_Maj_Policy_Comm_April_13_2021.pdf and Wholesale Trade -172 -31 -21.0% -3.8% Transportation and Warehouse -27 1 -9.0% 0.3% Financial and Real Estate -9 -10 -2.7% -2.9% Professional and Technical -19 -1 -5.3% -0.2% Administration and Waste Management Hits: 1
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf property within a local taxing jurisdiction. A local taxing authority may not increase the millage rate of its tax on real property to pay for these exclusions.” 9 The statutory definition of “homestead” can be found at 53 Pa.C.S Hits: 1
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf property within a local taxing jurisdiction. A local taxing authority may not increase the millage rate of its tax on real property to pay for these exclusions.” 9. The statutory definition of “homestead” can be found at 53 Pa.C.S Hits: 1
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf property within a local taxing jurisdiction. A local taxing authority may not increase the millage rate of its tax on real property to pay for these exclusions.” 9. The statutory definition of “homestead” can be found at 53 Pa.C.S Hits: 1
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf current law. The federal minimum wage was last raised to $7.25 per hour in 2009. Due to inflation, the real value of the wage rate has eroded over time. From January 2009 through January 2023, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased Hits: 1
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf current law. The federal minimum wage was last raised to $7.25 per hour in 2009. Due to inflation, the real value of the wage rate has eroded over time. From 2009 through 2022, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased by an Hits: 1
REU-2020-02.pdf latest three months of data. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth Hits: 1
REU-2020-01.pdf latest three months of data. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth Hits: 1
REU-2019-12.pdf latest three months of data. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth Hits: 1
REU-2019-11.pdf latest three months of data. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf 670,186 -509,000 Quakertown Community 2,096,276 -1,593,000 Radnor Township 1,453,102 -1,104,000 Reading 3,676,980 -2,793,000 Red Lion Area 1,898,082 -1,442,000 Redbank Valley 250,293 -190 Hits: 1
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf From 2017 to 2020, 59 Pennsylvania counties recorded personal income gains that exceeded inflation (1.4% per annum), which implies real income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts (e.g., SNAP Hits: 1
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf or have voluntarily separated in search of better pay/benefits or working conditions. 5 These data represent conditions in April. Real-time economic data suggest slower economic growth so that excess demand for workers could be somewhat lower. Where Did the Hits: 1
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf Under the moratorium, loan repayments are suspended, and interest does not accrue on outstanding balances. Due to high inflation, the real value of the outstanding loans declines over time and will be repaid in dollars that have less value. Existing borrowers Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf projects through partnerships with Local Development Districts, Small Business Development Centers and other entities, assisting businesses through workforce, market and real-estate development efforts. • Workforce and Economic Development Network (WedNet) expenditures increased by $1.7 million (+26%) to $8.2 million Hits: 1
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf nearly all Pennsylvania counties (except Cameron County) recorded personal income gains that exceeded inflation (1.5% per annum), which implies real income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts (e.g., SNAP Hits: 1
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf PUA claimant with $5,000 in prior annual income, the annualized difference is $20,700. 13 ▪ For the U.S., real GDP for 2021 Q1 is less than 1% lower than the level for 2019 Q4, the quarter prior to the Hits: 1
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf 5% $2,619 12.6% $120,550 Restaurant-Accommodation 13,343 7.7% $1,151 5.6% $86,257 Financial-Real Estate 14,175 8.2% $1,023 4.9% $72,154 Admin. Support & Waste Man. 11,672 6.7% $1 Hits: 1
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf average growth rate under 4.5 percent. The average income gains significantly exceeded inflation (1.3 percent), which implies material real income gains for most counties. The weak growth for Philadelphia County is attributable to an unusual $4.0 billion decline Hits: 1
RB-2018-01.pdf property within a local taxing jurisdiction. A local taxing authority may not increase the millage rate of its tax on real property to pay for these exclusions.” 10. The statutory de Ðinition of “homestead” can be found at 53 Pa.C Hits: 1
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf projects through partnerships with Local Development Districts, Small Business Development Centers and other entities, assisting businesses through workforce, market and real-estate development efforts. State Loan Programs In FY 2019-20, the Commonwealth issued $98.6 million in loans for economic Hits: 1
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf 1.5 percent per annum. That rate slightly exceeded inflation, which suggests that residents of certain counties did not experience real income gains at a county-wide level. Eight of those counties were significant natural gas producers, and the material reduction Hits: 1
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf Lower Growth, Lower Volatility 12.June.2014 21 Trend: Economic Growth Moderates 12.June.2014 22 PA and U.S. Real Economic Growth -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Hits: 1
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf Data collected from county assessment offices with help from the County Commissioners Association. Counties providing data comprised approximately 81% of real estate market value (2016). Computations for missing or incomplete entries. 5 March 8, 2018 Homestead Survey Results Estimates based on Hits: 1
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf to credit card, auto and student loans. PA Economic Forecast 7/14/2017 27 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Dom. Product 1.6% 1.9% 2.6% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% Philadelphia CPI-U 1.2% Hits: 1
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf Term PA Economic Forecast 10.Feb.2017 5 Economic Metric Average Annual Growth Rates 2004-10 2010-16 2016-22 Real GDP 0.8% 1.7% 1.9% Wages and Salaries 2.8% 3.3% 3.9% Philadelphia CPI-U 2 Hits: 1
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf forecast is important to the revenue estimate. Changes Since January Report 8.Jun.2016 9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP 0.7% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% Wages and Salaries 1.8% 4.0% 3.4% Hits: 1
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf disproportionately. May 1, 2019 6 There is Some Consensus Key: how "binding" is the current minimum wage? How many workers really make $7.25/hour? How high is the new minimum? What is the state median? There will be spillover effects Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf Agency Activities 7  General Services  16 activities focusing on procurement, fleet management, surplus property, warehousing, construction, facilities and real estate management, risk management, police services, publications and mail  Banking & Securities  5 activities focusing on depository institutions, non- Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf 5% 2.1% 3.0% 1.8% 2.2% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2018 data are estimates. Real GDP Growth US PA recession excluded August.08.2018 14 Service Sector Jobs Dominate Share of Total PA Payroll Jobs Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf sales tax Wages (withholding) June.12.2018 4 FY 16-17 deficit PA Economic Growth Rates 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP 2.6% 0.9% 1.9% 2.3% Wages-Salaries 4.1% 1.3% 3.3% 4.3% Net Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf cuts, which would manifest in later years. June.04.2018 4 PA Economic Growth Rates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP 2.0% 2.6% 0.9% 1.9% 2.3% Wages-Salaries 3.9% 4.1% 1.3% 3 Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf cuts, which would manifest in later years. June.05.2018 3 PA Economic Growth Rates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP 2.0% 2.6% 0.9% 1.9% 2.3% Wages-Salaries 3.9% 4.1% 1.3% 3 Hits: 1
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf Director Independent Fiscal Office CompetePA Retreat Economy, Revenues and Budget Pennsylvania economic growth rates or change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 2.3% Wages and Salaries 4.1% 1.3% 3.9% Hits: 1
PICPA_Presentation.pdf Economic Trends Recent Economic Trends June 7, 2017 11 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017.2 PA Real GDP 0.9% 1.7% 1.4% n.a. n.a. PA Wages-Salaries 2.8% 4.0% 2.8% Hits: 1
PBB_TaxCredits_Schedule_2022_Update.pdf and Development Keystone Innovation Zones Mobile Telecom and Broadband Organ and Bone Marrow 3 Neighborhood Assistance Resource Enhancement and Protection (REAP) Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Video Game Production Keystone Special Development Zones 4 Educational Tax Credits Coal Refuse and Reclamation Mixed- Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf schools 3. In the state benchmarks section of the K-12 Education Activity, include the national and statewide math and reading scores in the 2019 National Assessment of Educational Progress for grades 4 and 8 by the student groups for race Hits: 1
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf 47 185 -- Employment 1,133 1,494 1,587 1,382 1,606 -- Housing 200 148 291 318 296 -- Commercial Real Estate 0 1 3 4 6 -- Public Accommodations 70 140 198 253 231 -- Investigations 1 Average case age (days) 617 Hits: 1
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf and various other reimbursements to the Bureau of Forestry. ▪ Estimated fire damage includes costs related to timber, recreation infrastructure, watershed, real property and personal property. ▪ Prescribed fires (controlled burns) are conducted by DCNR employees, mainly for habitat improvement. The decline in Hits: 1
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf 100% on-time completion rates. BOIS is modernizing its IT systems to improve efficiencies and allow greater public interface and real- time tracking capabilities. A key enhancement will allow increased electronic processing of building plan submissions, payments, approvals/denials and field Hits: 1
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf an- alyze and share intelligence so that PSP and local law enforcement agen- cies (LEAs) are prepared to respond to real-time threats throughout the Com- monwealth. Between FY 2015-16 and FY 2019-20 requests for intelli- gence submitted to Hits: 1
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf of the CWCM system is scheduled to occur in FY 2023-24. The IFO recommends that the department incorporate standardized, real-time reporting of county-level outcome data as part of the new system design. Expanded collaboration with other agencies would Hits: 1
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf Environmental Education grants and Dirt and Gravel Roads Program. 2 Includes Farmland Preservation and Resource Enhancement and Protection (REAP) Program funding. 3 Includes Unconventional Gas Well funding. Source: Department of Environmental Protection. Chesapeake Bay | Page 16 - This page intentionally left blank Hits: 1
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf Development Districts, Small Business Develop- ment Centers). Funding supports activities that assist with market development, workforce assis- tance, real estate development and local and regional economic development projects. 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Activity- Hits: 1
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf included. January 22, 2019 4 First-Year Goals for PBB Plans Build the report foundation for future years.  Easily read and expandable. Not text dense.  Create flexible data template to be used by all agencies. Shift agency focus from Hits: 1
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Change in Real Per Capita Debt: 2003 to 2015 25 Various methods to eliminate or reduce SD taxes.  But all rely to Hits: 1
NFIB_Presentation.pdf Data Center with adjustments by IFO. Dec.13.2017 6 PA Economic Growth Rates 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% 0.6% 1.8% 1.9% Wages and Salaries 1.8% 3.9% Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_October.pdf 8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Early Data Show PA Economy Had Robust Growth in 2018 Q3 Four real-time data sources suggest that the Pennsylvania economy recorded robust growth for the third quarter of 2018. Based on non- Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_December.pdf the third largest housing boom since 1913. Since February 2012, U.S. home pric- es have increased by 53%. In real terms (controlling for inflation), home prices are up nearly 40%. The article notes that it is not possible to know Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf growth will occur in the next five years and then level off thereafter. The CBO also revised its projection for real GDP to reflect recent changes in federal tax policy. (Full Report) Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt Roughly Hits: 1
MTR-2019-09.pdf latest three months of data. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth Hits: 1
MTR-2019-08.pdf latest three months of data. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth Hits: 1
MTR-2019-07.pdf latest three months of data. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth Hits: 1
MTR-2019-06.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2019-05.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2019-04.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2019-03.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2019-02.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2019-01.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-12.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-11.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-10.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-1.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-09.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-08.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-07.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-06.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-05.pdf Department of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-04.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-03.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2018-02.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-12.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-11.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-10.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-09.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-08.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-07.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-06.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-05.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-04.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-03.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-02.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2017-01.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2016-11.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2016-08.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2016-05.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2016-03.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2016-02.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2016-01.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of Hits: 1
MTR-2015-11.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year Hits: 1
MTR-2015-09.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year Hits: 1
MTR-2015-08.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year Hits: 1
MTR-2015-07.pdf units authorized for construction based on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year Hits: 1
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf 10 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate or Change 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 2022.1 Real GDP -3.4% -0.3% 11.5% 4.1% Mar 31 -- Wages-Salaries 1.9% 1.0% 12.6% 9 Hits: 1
MRU-2020-07.pdf transfer amounts. The dramatic decline is likely the result of the continued effects of COVID-19 mitigation efforts on the real estate industry. Monthly Revenue Update July 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Hits: 1
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf 44.9 48.4 166.8 Operators’ Licenses 16.6 16.6 19.2 18.4 70.8 Real ID 1.3 2.2 0.5 3.5 7.5 Vehicle Registration & Titling 195.0 158.6 191.4 260.5 Hits: 1
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf 46.3 39.0 156.3 Operators’ Licenses 26.8 16.7 17.4 15.3 76.2 Real ID 2.1 2.1 2.0 3.9 10.1 Vehicle Registration & Titling 243.4 150.8 169.4 275.8 Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf Energy. 6. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf from major Pennsylvania gas hubs. Unit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1
MER-2015-04.pdf monthly basis. 8 April 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
MER-2015-03.pdf monthly basis. 8 March 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
MER-2015-01.pdf bi-monthly basis. 8 January 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The Hits: 1
MER-2014-12.pdf monthly basis. 8 December 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
MER-2014-11.pdf monthly basis. 8 November 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
MER-2014-10.pdf monthly basis. 8 October 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
MER-2014-09.pdf monthly basis. 8 September 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
MER-2014-08.pdf monthly basis. 8 August 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
MER-2014-07.pdf monthly basis. 8 July 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Value for Hits: 1
MER-2014-03.pdf three‐month period. March 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
MER-2014-02.pdf three‐month period. February 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
MER-2014-01.pdf three‐month period. January 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf 4 4 4 Source: State Business Tax Climate Index, Tax Foundation, 2019. Table 4 Sales Tax Base Medical Landscape Repair Real Estate Parking Dry Clean Fitness Barber Veterinary State Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Alabama Exempt Exempt Hits: 1
Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf vehicle. In practice, direct exchanges of like-kind property between firms are complicated and unusual. Most exchanges, especially exchanges of real estate, are facilitated by a third party or qualified intermediary. 7 The U.S. Treasury Department used the following example Hits: 1
Letter_to_JSGC.pdf typographical errors that were not part of the original submission. The newly created table and text only serve to confuse readers because they are inconsistent with numerous other studies that were cited in the same sub-section. 2 The IFO was Hits: 1
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf Economic Forecast: COVID Bubble November 16, 2021 5 Pre-COVID COVID Bubble Reversion 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 1.4% 1.7% -4.5% 4.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% Wages and Salaries 4.3% Hits: 1
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf 8 Retail and Wholesale Trade 815 816 1 0.1 Transportation and Warehouse 287 322 36 12.4 Finance and Real Estate 332 337 5 1.6 Professional and Technical 364 394 30 8.4 Administration and Waste Manage 302 299 Hits: 1
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf Commonwealth citizens regarding a wide range of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. (See 71 Pa.C.S., Ch. 41 to read the statute creating the office.) The position entails full-time, professional work in fiscal analysis. An IFO analyst: 1) compiles Hits: 1
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf to support the needs of rapidly expanding retiree and elderly populations. The contraction of the working-age cohort suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase in demand for Hits: 1
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf There has been significant volatility in the stock market. Consumers are more reluctant to spend under such conditions. The latest readings of the consumer confidence index reveal that confidence has dropped for the latest two months.  International economic growth appears Hits: 1
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf by IFO. PA Economic Growth Rates February 28, 2020 5 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real Gross Dom Product 0.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% Wages and Salaries 4.0% 4.3% Hits: 1
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf of taxpayers. The actual contraction of the working-age cohort, which remits the great majority of state taxes, suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase in demand for Hits: 1
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf of taxpayers. The actual contraction of the working-age cohort, which remits the great majority of state taxes, suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase in demand for Hits: 1
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf The actual contraction of the working-age cohort, which remits the great majority of state taxes, suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase in demand for healthcare and Hits: 1
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf and Wholesale Trade -155 -48 -18.9% -5.7% Transport and Warehouse -27 4 -9.1% 1.3% Financial and Real Estate -3 -1 -0.9% -0.2% Professional and Technical -21 -13 -5.8% -3.6% Admin and Waste Management Hits: 1
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf property within a local taxing jurisdiction. A local taxing authority may not increase the millage rate of its tax on real property to pay for these exclusions.” 10 The statutory definition of “homestead” can be found at 53 Pa.C.S Hits: 1
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf 3.83 3.65 3.60 3.39 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% delayed Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The Hits: 1
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf 89 3.63 3.65 3.60 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The Hits: 1
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf 49 3.53 3.54 3.63 1.3% 1.1% 1.5% n.a. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The Hits: 1
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf 51 3.58 3.54 3.53 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% n.a. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf 74 3.73 3.58 3.53 2.0% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf 93 3.74 3.73 3.58 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% n.a. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 (2013.1 Hits: 1
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf 51 1.8% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2012.4 0.4% 5.0% 3.1% 5.5% 6.3% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf 52 1.8% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2012.4 0.1% 5.0% n.a. n.a. 6.3% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf 66 2.2% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2012.4 -0.1% 4.9% n.a. n.a. n.a. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf 66 2.2% Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.2% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income Hits: 1
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf 0 1 2 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The Hits: 1
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf values held constant. Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% 4.1% 9.2% -2.5% 7.2% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The Hits: 1
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf J u l y 2 0 1 2 2011.3 1.3% 4.7% 4.7% -3.7% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the US economy. Excludes infla- tion. Data are from the Hits: 1
2004_srpvffinal.pdf funds are allocated using a formula that distributes the state aid based upon municipal population and the market value of real estate in a municipality. As a result, there is no direct relationship between the amount of state aid allocated to Hits: 1
Independent Fiscal Office presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The REAP tax credit was used as a case study. ... (Full Report) Where Did the Workers Go? Economics and Other October 25 Hits: 1