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Young Workers Leave PA Workforce The IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate. Tags: brief, reduction, research, worker
Corporate Rate reduction and Higher NOL Cap This research brief examines two recent provisions that reduce corporate net income tax liability: a lower tax rate and a higher net operating loss (NOL) deduction threshold. The provisions significantly reduce corporate tax liability and will be phased-in through tax year 2031. 07/17/2024
Young Workers Leave PA Workforce The IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate. 12/08/2022
Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment? The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. 03/08/2022
Act 25 of 2011 Analysis In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates the potential reduction in property taxes due to Act 25 of 2011. 02/16/2022
Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021 The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses.  06/23/2021
Corporate Net Income Tax Rate reduction The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate.  04/11/2018
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf a discount rate of 3.6%. Employer Contributions For FYs 2018-19 through 2049-50, the proposal is projected to reduce employer contributions by $1.4 billion on a cash flow basis and $319 million on a present value basis. Benefit ees under the new plan design comprise a greater share of the workforce. A “new employee” simula- tion estimates risk reduction of 53 percent for PSERS and 58 percent for SERS under the new plans. For a 100 basis point reduction Hits: 190
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf Executive Summary.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii Part I–Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part II–History of the Crisis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part III–Unfunded Pension Liabilities.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4A. Reduction of Liabilities.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4B. Increase Funding.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6C. Management of Liabilities.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Part IV–Need for a Pension Policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18A. Types of but no class of municipal government has been spared. Unlike the private sector, increased employer pension costs do not just reduce the profits of shareholders. Governments are funded by taxpayers, and every dollar spent comes from the people who live and Hits: 147
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf because retailers switch to more expensive options and pass all bag costs forward to consumers. In response, consumers reduce spending on other goods and services by $69 million. Because a high proportion of alternative bags and raw materials are imported, only ing remains in the state compared to spending on retail bags.  A ban-plus-fee (10 cents) reduces consumer spending on other goods and services by $34 million. Payroll employment falls by 363 jobs and labor earnings decline by $17 Hits: 85
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf language provided by the administration. For this year, the administration pro- vided language for the proposed CNIT rate reduction and enactment of combined reporting, but language was not available for the proposed increase in the minimum wage or the newly proposed the transfer from the Video Gaming Fund to the General Fund. This analysis projects that the proposals will reduce General Fund revenues by $145 million in fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The reduction is projected to increase to $1.1 billion Hits: 81
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on the cost and environmental impact of agricultural best manage- ment practices (BMPs) for reducing water pollution, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that states in the Chesapeake Bay watershed to offer a tax credit to agricultural operations that implement and maintain BMPs, which reduce the amount of nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment pollution that enters waterways. Most watershed states provide grants or cost-sharing funds Hits: 73
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf increase in the minimum wage, but language was not available for the proposed corporate net income tax rate reduction, enactment of combined reporting or the newly proposed transfers. - This page intentionally left blank. - Tax and Revenue Proposals | Page 3 Tax and funds and an expansion of the Resource Enhance- ment Tax Credit. This analysis projects that the proposals will reduce General Fund revenues by $192 million in fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. The reduction is projected to increase to $873 million by Hits: 68
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf 5% to 10%, while two states noted combined reporting would have an indeterminable positive impact. The administration’s proposal also reduces the CNIT rate from 9.99% to 8.99% for tax years beginning in 2022; 8.29% for tax years 6.63%. ▪ By FY 2025-26 (and after enactment of combined reporting), the IFO estimates that the rate re- duction reduces CNIT revenues by $3.3 billion, while the DOR estimates a reduction of $3.7 billion. 21-22 22-23 Hits: 66
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf 20, but then begin to decline due to the phase-in of a corporate net income tax rate reduction. Corporate Net Income Tax The administration’s proposal (1) reduces the corporate net income tax (CNIT) rate from 9.99 percent to 9.49 percent for tax years beginning in 2020; 8 Hits: 54
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf IFO) undertook an analysis of state corporate net income tax (CNIT) rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. House Bill 130 of 2017 reduces the Pennsylvania CNIT rate of 9.99 percent by 1.0 percentage point each year to a final rate of Hits: 54
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf deficit expansion continues but moderates as average spending growth outpaces revenues. The main factors that drive rapid deficit expansion are: ▪ Reduced revenues from the phased-in corporate net income tax rate reduction, an assumed profits contraction and lower Treasury collections. ▪ Strong expenditure growth for the intellectual disabilities and long-term living programs Hits: 45
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf the bankruptcy or near bankruptcy of three large mortgage lenders. 4 Large financial institutions began to conserve capital and sharply reduced loans to consumers, businesses and other financial institutions. In an effort to restore liquidity to financial markets, the Federal Reserve slow deleveraging process where borrowers pay down debt over many years. Data show that debtors have used both methods to reduce leverage. Tabulations from the US Bankruptcy Court reveal that annual bankruptcy filings peaked at 1.59 million in 2010, an Hits: 36
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf service, together with any investment earnings and losses and adjustments for fees, costs and expenses credited or charged thereon and reduced by any distributions. "Accumulated mandatory participant contributions." The total of the mandatory pickup participant contributions paid into the trust on service, together with any investment earnings and losses and adjustments for fees, costs and expenses credited or charged thereon and reduced by any distributions. "Accumulated total defined contributions." The total of the accumulated mandatory participant contributions, accumulated employer defined contributions and Hits: 36
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf develop cost-effective strategies to improve public safety and reinvest savings from those strategies in programs designed to reduce incarceration rates. In 2012, Pennsylvania enacted JRI reforms that were developed by a bi-partisan, multi-agency working group with assistance from Justice Center and the Pew Center on the States. The initial set of JRI reforms produced material population reductions and savings through policy changes in corrections and parole at the back end of the criminal justice system. Launched in late 2015 Hits: 34
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf The overall positive net migration is due to net inflows from international migration. The most recent data also reveal a reduction in outflows from net domestic migration.  Although not shown explicitly in the table, declining college enrollment also impacts state 5 percent com- pared to 63.2 percent in the prior year. It is expected that a portion of this reduction will reverse as COVID-19 vaccines are distributed during the first half of 2021. Figure 2.3 Pennsylvania Labor Force Hits: 33
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 12 general activities. Highlights of recent agency activity include: ▪ Fiscal Year (FY) 2019-20 highway and bridge program expenditures were reduced by roughly $430 million from the prior year due to a sharp decrease in transportation revenue. The decrease was primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic and continued increases in motor vehicle fuel efficiency. As a result of the reduced revenues, the number of highway miles improved or restored declined by 1,624 (-28.6 percent) from the prior year Hits: 32
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf mostly wages) between states. For many firms that regularly claim the credit, the data show that it significantly reduces their CNIT liability.  Pennsylvania is one of three states that allows tax credits to be transferred or sold. Historical data show the final section of this report.  The tax credit is oversubscribed, so that recent awards have been reduced by half, which greatly reduces the incentive impact. To alleviate that condition, the eligible QRE computation could be adjusted so that less Hits: 30
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf Effect of Divestment on Indirect Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 – Impact on Assumed Investment Returns and Employer Contribution Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 – Cumulative Effect of Reduced Earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 – Transaction, Administrative and Monitoring Costs . . . . . . . . . 44 Part VI. Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 – Appendix I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 The Divestment Bills House Bill Rate – Table IV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Potential Impact of Divestiture on Local School Districts For FY 2006/2007: Illustration of Impact of Reduction of PSERS’ Investment Earnings Assumption – Table V . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 S&P 500 Index Comparison with the S&P South Africa Free Hits: 29
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf to support expenditures by the Department of Human Services, the expansion of health and human services programs and reduced support from non-General Fund sources (e.g., Lottery Fund). After that year, ex- penditure growth moderates and the projected imbalance levels positive net migration is due to net inflows from international migration. The most recent data also reveal a reduction in outflows from net domestic migration.  Although not shown explicitly in the table, declining college enrollment also impacts state demo- graphic Hits: 28
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf Commission Recommendations The Commission recommends that the Commonwealth modify the method used to amortize its COLA liabilities in order to reduce the total amount of the contributions required to fund future COLAs. Specifically, the recommendations would: • Provide for utilization of direct approach when COLAs are provided on an ad hoc basis. • Provide for lower total interest payments on COLA-related debt. Reduce the amortization period for COLA-related debt from 20 to10 years and change amortization schedule from level percentage of payroll Hits: 28
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf develop cost-effective strategies to improve public safety and reinvest savings from those strategies in programs designed to reduce incarceration rates. In 2012, Pennsylvania enacted JRI reforms that were developed by a bi-partisan, multi-agency working group with assistance from Justice Center and the Pew Center on the States. The initial set of JRI reforms produced material population reductions and savings through policy changes in corrections and parole at the back end of the criminal justice system. Launched in late 2015 Hits: 27
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf 45,135 -46,534 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- Current Year Balance 2,402 4,259 255 -1,991 -2,083 -1,923 -1,828 Reduced Spending 3 0 763 0 0 0 0 0 Adjustment for Lapses 4 -2,402 110 110 110 110 110 programs, including PUA, ended the first week of September. The programs provided over $42 billion to individuals experiencing unemployment and reduced employment. In the final week of the programs, 530,000 individuals were still claiming expanded benefits. ▪ Regular UC peaked at Hits: 27
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf Overview | Page 6  Incentivize the use of treated ash byproduct in the reclamation of mining-affected sites. Purpose  Reduce or eliminate the environmental impact and various negative externalities imposed on communities by coal refuse piles and abandoned mine lands restrained wholesale electricity prices on the PJM Interconnection. 8 Low electricity prices directly affect coal refuse power plants because it reduces profit margins. (Average wholesale price data are presented in the Eco- nomic Impact section.) Wholesale electricity prices also affect the Hits: 25
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf but not a full recovery to levels observed prior to the pandemic. Both forecasts also project a large reduction in the labor force (i.e., those employed or seeking employment) due to mandated business closures. Overall, the IFO forecast assumes a of federal monies into the state economy. Normal state safety net programs, notably unemployment compensation (UC), will also reduce the economic downturn caused by mitigation efforts. Table 1.3 provides estimates of the funds that will flow into Pennsylvania due to Hits: 25
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf but not a full recovery to levels observed prior to the pandemic. Both forecasts also project a large reduction in the labor force (i.e., those employed or seeking employment) due to mandated business closures. 3 Release dates were as follows of federal monies into the state economy. Normal state safety net programs, notably unemployment compensation (UC), will also reduce the economic downturn caused by mitigation efforts. Table 1.3 provides estimates of the funds that will flow into Pennsylvania due to Hits: 25
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf 50,099 -51,467 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- Current Year Balance 7,367 -300 -1,672 -2,431 -3,155 -3,135 -3,261 Reduced Spending 3 0 1,302 0 0 0 0 0 Adjustment for Lapses 4 -1,830 140 140 140 140 previous decade, net migration was 195,000 (19,500 per annum). For 2020 to 2030, the projec- tions assume a reduction to an average net inflow of 7,700 per annum. Net migration projections are lower because the forecast is based Hits: 25
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf All proposals are effective for tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2023. Combined, the proposals are projected to reduce CNIT revenues by $67 million in fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and by $967 million in FY 2026-27. Broaden 27. The estimate assumes that both proposals are effective for tax years that begin on or after January 1, 2023. Reduce the CNIT Rate: The proposal reduces the tax rate from 9.99% to 7.99% for tax years 2023 to Hits: 24
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf healthy and safe behaviors 3 Disease Treatment........................................................... Contain the spread of disease 4 HIV Surveillance, Prevention and Treatment.............. Reduce morbidity, mortality and health disparities 5 Quality Assurance............................................................. Monitor health care facilities and agencies 6 Drug Surveillance and Misuse Prevention................... Reduce the rate of prescription drug misuse 7 Vital Statistics.................................................................... Record vital events timely and accurately 8 Women, Infants and Children (WIC)............................. Administer Hits: 24
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf partment of Community and Economic Development (DCED) has approved all documentation. Therefore, these provisions are not projected to reduce FY 2019-20 collections. Personal Income Tax Conformity with Federal Opportunity Zones (Act 13) The act provides that “net gains”, “net losses 2019 and are effective June 28, 2019. Prior Law None. Fiscal Analysis This provision is not projected to reduce FY 2019-20 PIT revenues. FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 5 Farm Show Complex Debt Service (Act 20) The Hits: 23
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf in the fee-for-service model. Short-term nursing facility stays may be partially funded through federal Medicare funds, which reduces the state funds needed to pay for nursing facility services. See page 21 for more details. As CHC was implemented income, declined from 10,100 children in 2016 to 3,100 in 2019. The combination of additional federal funds and reduced demand for child care during the pandemic reduced the waitlist to 199 children in 2020 and no children in December Hits: 22
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf economic impacts that could be derived from the alternative use of state spending), as the estimates assume that states must reduce spending or raise taxes to fund tax credits. The Net Tax Revenue Impact reflects the net increase in tax collections more output and employment in targeted, high-tech sectors in geographic zones across the state. Findings ▪ Act 84 of 2016 reduced the annual tax credit cap from $25 million to $15 million and the program has been oversubscribed every year since Hits: 21
MQRE_FY24-25_08_2024.pdf NOLs generated after TY 2024. The provision applies to tax years beginning after December 31, 2024 and is projected to reduce FY 2024-25 corporate net income tax (CNIT) revenue by $4.3 million. Medical Cannabis (Act 56) The act creates taxpayer’s federal corporate return. The provision applies to taxable years beginning after December 31, 2023 and is projected to reduce FY 2024-25 CNIT revenues by $2.1 million. Changes to the Addback Provisions (Act 56) The act provides that Hits: 20
2002_dbdc_report.pdf DC pension plan mean that the investment experience impacts on the benefit amount, increasing it when earnings are higher and reducing it when earnings are lower. Therefore, the employer, as the residual contributor, bears the investment risk in a DB pension potential for cost-of-living adjustments or service purchase authori- zations. Personnel Management Early retirement incentives easily imple- mented to reduce personnel complement. Retains (and is more beneficial to) experi- enced, long-term employees. Complement reduction through early retirement incentives is Hits: 18
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf change, and certain provisions (e.g., some with no or minimal revenue impact) are omitted. Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction (Act 53) The act provides for a reduction in the corporate net income tax (CNIT) rate from 9.99% to 8.99% for tax years beginning after December Hits: 17
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf institution of higher education. The general findings of this report are as follows:  Act 84 of 2016 reduced the KIZ Tax Credit cap from $25 million to $15 million and the program has been oversubscribed in every year since the 4 Gross revenues are limited to revenue generated from activity within the zone. 5 Act 84 of 2016 reduced the program cap from $25 million to $15 million. 6 DCED notes that a very small number of KIZ firms are subject Hits: 16
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf the higher interest rates and monetary tightening described in recent public statements. Officials have emphasized those actions are necessary to reduce inflation. The forecast does not assume that a recession occurs in calendar year (CY) 2022 or CY 2023. However, many soft landing” will be very difficult for the Fed to achieve as it raises the federal funds rate while simultaneously reducing the money supply. 1 The economic forecast assumes the following Fed policy actions: ▪ At its last meeting, the Fed increased Hits: 16
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf the higher interest rates and monetary tightening described in recent public statements. Officials have emphasized those actions are necessary to reduce inflation. The forecast does not assume that a recession occurs in calendar year (CY) 2022 or CY 2023. However, many IFO. Annual Growth Rate or Change Table 1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Economic Outlook | Page 2 funds rate while simultaneously reducing the money supply. 1 The economic forecast assumes the following Fed policy actions: ▪ At its last meeting, the Fed increased Hits: 16
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf wage sectors (e.g., retail trade and food service), the projected percentage decline in wages is less than the projected reduction in jobs. 4 Data published by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue show that wage, earnings and net profits collections increased to 8 percent, or $150 to $175 million from the FY 2019-20 level of $2.2 billion. That potential reduction reflects four full quarters of COVID-19 impact. 5 These growth rates assume that S corporation dividends to shareholders comprise Hits: 15
RB-2015-04.pdf income would increase from $15,080 to $21,010, an increase of $5,930. However, those wage gains would be reduced by the employee’s share of payroll taxes (7.65 percent), which would reduce wage gains to $5,475. Under current law, wage gains may also be subject to the 3.07 percent state Hits: 15
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf services to approximately 900 federal, state and local law enforce- ment agencies in 2020, completing over 36,000 cases and reducing backlogs. ▪ Completing firearm background checks for over 1.4 million firearm purchases and transfers in 2020, 65 percent of which land mobile radio (LMR) in 13 of 16 troops. Early metrics indicate increased road and land coverage, increased reliability and reduced maintenance compared to OpenSky. In FY 2019-20 the P25 LMR had 307 help desk tickets sub- mitted for radio Hits: 15
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reduction enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that:  Real GDP on revenue collections through mid-June and projections for the remainder of the fiscal year, this revised estimate reduces revenues by $226 million from the IFO’s FY 2017-18 official revenue estimate. (See Table 2.1.) Nearly all of the Hits: 15
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf MHMO plan may provide additional benefits, including immunizations, routine dental and vision care, and hearing aids. As an incentive for reducing the Commonwealth’s retiree health coverage costs, retirees with Commonwealth-subsidized health insurance receive a monetary incentive for joining 2 the REHP. -10- an MHMO. For retirees who pay their own health insurance premiums, joining an MHMO generally results in reduced premium payments. 2 Dependent REHP Conversion and Continuation of Coverage A dependent’s loss of coverage may be due to Hits: 15
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf that the purpose of the tax incentive is to stimulate rehabilitation of historic structures and homes. The credit reduces the cost of the rehabilitation project by subsidizing the activity and reducing the risk to the developer. It is typically expected that successful reha- bilitation projects serve to generate additional economic and social benefits Hits: 14
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf discount accrues to the buyer of the tax credit, which is often a large multistate corporation. The sale reduces the credit percentage from the vantage point of the original recipient. For example, if a recipient must sell a tax credit, then use tax for the online purchase. In an analysis by the Massachusetts Department of Revenue (2016), the agency reduced qualified non-wage expenditures by 39 percent to reflect flows to non-Massachusetts vendors. 16 This analysis assumes that all non-wage Hits: 14
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reductions enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that:  Real GDP Based on revenue collections through April and projections for the remainder of the fiscal year, this revised estimate reduces revenues by $244 million from the IFO’s FY 2017-18 official revenue estimate. (See Table 2.1.) Most of the revision Hits: 14
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf The significant resources necessary to purchase, repair and maintain aircraft can provide a meaningful incentive for consumers to reduce or eliminate tax liability. The text that follows provides a brief description of exemptions recently enacted in nearby states. Table 1 and effective tax rate by three to five percentage points depending on location. 7 However, North Carolina applies a reduced tax rate to sales of aircraft. Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Sales Parts MRO Services SUT State Commercial Private Commercial Private Commercial Hits: 13
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf increase due to (1) stranded costs (e.g., the same number of teachers are needed and class sizes are reduced, hence the cost is spread over fewer students) and (2) charter school tuition costs for students who leave the district (increases to career and technology centers. Additionally, in a community with low property values and low average income levels the reducing factor of the Local Effort Capacity Index has negative effect on the distribution of BEF to communities in need. Avon Grove Hits: 12
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf years. The credit is non-refundable and may not be carried back. Unused credits may be sold or assigned to reduce a buyer’s liability by up to 75 percent but must be used within the year of sale or assignment For this review, the IFO has established the goals and purpose of the KSDZ Tax Credit as follows: Goals  Reduce the number of brownfield sites in Pennsylvania through increased remediation and rede- velopment efforts.  Preserve greenspace by repurposing brownfield Hits: 11
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf the existing mortgage), the probability of sale declined by 18.1%. 1 The paper found that the lock-in effect reduced home sales by 57% in 2023 Q4. For 2023, Pennsylvania home sales were the lowest since 1990 (earliest data point 25. Corporate Net Income The revised CNIT estimate for FY 2023-24 is $5.65 billion. The estimate reflects a reduction of $45 million from the official estimate and is $0.49 billion lower than the prior fiscal year. For FY Hits: 11
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf fall. Childcare is available for workers who need those services. ▪ Due to telework policies, Motor License Fund revenues are permanently reduced by the pandemic. Table 1.2 contains the latest quarterly data for the state economy. The real GDP and personal economic growth next year. Data show that many consumers have a more solid financial profile because they used EIPs to reduce credit card debt. Due to low interest rates, a record number of homeowners also refinanced mortgages and reduced their monthly Hits: 11
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf the existing mortgage), the probability of sale declined by 18.1%. 1 The paper found that the lock-in effect reduced home sales by 57% in 2023 Q4. For 2023, Pennsylvania home sales were the lowest since 1990 (earliest data point 25. Corporate Net Income The revised CNIT estimate for FY 2023-24 is $5.57 billion. The estimate reflects a reduction of $130 million from the official estimate and is $0.57 billion lower than the prior fiscal year. For FY Hits: 11
RB_2024_10_Act_1.pdf The Commonwealth provides property tax relief to owners of homestead and farmstead properties through Act 1 property tax reduction allocations. These allocations come from taxes imposed on slots play (in-person and interactive) and are distributed to school districts in the fall. For fiscal year (FY) 2024-25, $800 million in property tax reduction allocations will be available to school districts, an increase of $132 million (20%) from the prior year and the largest Hits: 11
RB_2024_07_CNIT.pdf rate from 9.99% in tax year 2022 to 4.99% by tax year 2031. The new state budget further reduces corporate tax liability by raising the net operating loss (NOL) deduction threshold. Net operating losses are unused tax losses carried can only offset up to 40% of taxable income. The table displays the IFO static estimates for the CNIT rate reduction and higher NOL deduction threshold by tax year. Both estimates assume that corporate profits expand by 3% per annum. Notable Hits: 11
RB 2019 RACP.pdf the potential economic impact to local units.  An analysis of the potential fiscal impact from the proposed debt limit reduction.  A comparison to similar programs and total debt levels in other states. Program Overview RACP is a grant program ceiling has been adjusted 11 times. The first nine adjustments increased the debt ceiling. More recently, the debt ceiling was reduced in 2013 and 2017:  Act 63 of 1987 established the RACP and its initial cap of $400 million  Hits: 11
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf obtain necessary medical care and attend medical appointments, and in doing so lead healthier lives, which in turn reduces the fiscal impact on the MA program. Resources 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Actual Actual diagnosis for individuals and populations.  Alert providers and care teams to an admission of a patient.  Reduce readmissions and redundant tests by sharing patient information and care plans with other providers and payers who care for the same patient Hits: 11
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf quality by EPA standards has shown significant improvement. Pennsylvania lags behind other states in Chesapeake Bay Watershed pollution reduction. Penn- sylvania failed to meet the two most recent Chesapeake Bay pollution targets and is furthest away from meeting the latest 2025 states. In its Phase 3 Watershed Implementation Plan (WIP), DEP estimates that in order to meet current pollution reduction targets by 2025, an increased in- vestment of approximately $324 million per year in both public and private funding would be necessary Hits: 11
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf fall. Childcare is available for workers who need those services. ▪ Due to telework policies, Motor License Fund revenues are permanently reduced by the pandemic. Table 1.2 contains the latest quarterly data for the state economy. The real GDP data are economic growth next year. Data show that many consumers have a more solid financial profile because they used EIPs to reduce credit card debt. Due to low interest rates, a record number of homeowners also refinanced mortgages and reduced their monthly Hits: 11
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf Fund The proposal transfers cigarette tax revenues to the Tobacco Settlement Fund (TSF) for debt service pay- ments and would reduce FY 2024-25 cigarette tax revenues by $115 million. Personal Income Tax Transfer to Environmental Stewardship Fund The proposal transfers personal income tax (PIT) revenues to the Environmental Stewardship Fund for Growing Greener debt service payments and would reduce FY 2024-25 PIT withholding revenues by $10 million. Realty Transfer Tax Transfer to PHARE Fund The proposal modifies the Hits: 10
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf 0%) is levied on the retail sale of mobile telecommunications services provided to end users. The proposal is projected to reduce GRT revenues by $45 million and non-motor vehicle SUT revenues by $23 million in FY 2023-24. (See Table and (3) the average annual projected tax cut by income quintile. The average tax cut estimate assumes that the proposal reduces the average bill for cellular service by roughly 9%. Recruitment and Retention Tax Credit The Executive Budget proposes a Recruitment Hits: 10
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf 16 or older were either employed or actively seeking work. 5 For July 2022, the LFPR was 61.7%, a reduction of 1.3 percentage points (ppts). The reduction implies that the state labor force (i.e., actively employed or seeking employment) contracted by roughly 130,000 workers. 6 Hits: 10
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf 16 or older were either employed or actively seeking work. 8 For May 2022, the LFPR was 61.7%, a reduction of 1.3 percentage points (ppts). The reduction caused the state labor force (i.e., actively employed or seeking employment) to contract by roughly 120,000 residents. 9 Hits: 10
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf been decreasing since FY 2016-17. The department also audits and certifies workplace safety committees and conducts training courses to reduce incidents in the workplace. The incident rate and number of fatalities increased in 2020, despite a decline in the number to the pandemic. The adjudication process for workers’ compensation claims (first level) averaged 5.6 months in 2020, an 11% reduction from 2016. Misclassified Workers and Labor Compliance The Bureau of Labor Law Compliance (Activity 12) enforces Act 72 of 2010 Hits: 10
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 1,000 member months to 66.1. Child welfare services are shifting focus to prevention services in combination with the reduc- tion in out-of-home care for children. The foster care rate per 1,000 children has declined from 6 asthma medication as pre- scribed) increased from 41% to 45% in MY 2019. Managing these key chronic condi- tions can reduce emergency de- partment (ED) visits, which is the costliest form of treatment of medical conditions. Emergency department visits per 1 Hits: 10
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf and procurement data.  Perform a detailed analysis to benchmark facility management labor costs and evaluate options to reduce those costs.  Perform a facility condition assessment of historic buildings to develop a preservation roadmap. Review cost allocation of facility and charges, utility and facility maintenance costs to other funding sources including special funds and federal funds, which may reduce General Fund appropriations required to pay for these costs. Develop an occupancy report. This review recommends that DGS develop a report that Hits: 10
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf previously applied prior to apportionment of multi-state income to Pennsylvania. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2021-22 corporate net income tax revenues by $23.9 million. Sales and Use Tax Flight Simulators (Act 25) The act repair of helicopters and component parts were already exempt from SUT. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2021-22 SUT revenues by $2.6 million. Multipurpose Agricultural Vehicles (Act 25) The act provides an SUT exemption for purchases Hits: 10
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf update. Compared to the June 2020 forecast, the IFO projects a smaller contraction of real GDP, a smaller reduction in wages and salaries paid to workers, the same magnitude of average job losses and slightly stronger inflation as measured by the gov/pub/irs-pdf/p1415.pdf. CY 2020 Notes Lost Labor Income Wages and Salaries -$20.8 6% reduction vs. no-pandemic scenario Self-Employment (see note) -3.2 15% reduction vs. no-pandemic scenario Tip Income -1.5 high degree Hits: 10
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the per tour cap on EEEP Tax Credit awards, the average effective tax credit was reduced to roughly 10 percent of total qualified rehearsal and tour expend- itures. 9 8 A Final Employees form lists identifying that a higher effective credit rate is more likely to incentivize firms, and if those recipients were used, it would reduce the leverage factor. Nearly all recipients received the $0.8 million tax credit at the 25 percent base credit rate Hits: 9
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf signals via radio waves can often provide the desired high-speed service to homes and businesses at a reduced cost. A recent study by the Technology Policy Institute reviewed other state and national broadband incentive programs and found that the most firms claiming the tax credit are profitable C corporations, then the net value of the tax credit is reduced by 21 percent due to the deductibility of state taxes on the federal corporate income tax return. This analysis does not model Hits: 9
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf FY 2021-22, the Comptroller identified $102.0 million in improper payments and recovered $20.3 million (20%). Additionally, agencies reduced annual travel expenditures from $28.8 million (FY 2017-18) to $18.7 million (FY 2021-22), a 35% reduction. This reduction is likely permanent due to increased telework and a reduced need to travel following the COVID-19 pandemic Hits: 9
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf the entire Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) budget from the General Fund. The MLF currently provides significant funds for the PSP. • Reduce motor fuel taxes, currently imposed at 61.1 cents per gallon of gasoline and 78.5 cents per gallon of vehicle prices since the onset of the pandemic. The projection assumes those price gains do not revert. • The estimate for reducing fuel taxes to 12.4 cents per gallon reflects rates in effect as of January 1, 2023. It assumes that Hits: 9
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf take-home pay due to the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of 2010. That Act temporarily reduced the payroll taxes that employers withheld from employee paychecks and remitted to the federal government. On December 23, 2011, the wages and remitted to the federal government by the employer, along with the employer’s share. The payroll tax cut reduced the employee’s OASDI tax rate by two percentage points, from 6.2 to 4.2 percent. (Self-employed persons Hits: 8
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf JCTC credits currently available for award from each of the last five fiscal years. The “awarded” column is reduced for credits that were initially awarded, but later recaptured. These credits are now available for re-award and appear in the “available 9 New Pennsylvania spending leveraged by the credit. Line 10 Due to the balanced budget requirement, states must reduce spending or raise taxes to provide resources for the tax credit. If that offset is not taken into account, then the net Hits: 8
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf 87% (adds back an estimated -$150 million in FY 2022-23 due to the phase-in of the CNIT rate reduction).  Inheritance tax revenues (45%) outperformed economic growth, largely due to the inflation of assets such as stock holdings and whether the overperformance of certain revenue sources can be maintained and extended, or whether there will be partial reversion that reduces some portion of the overperformance. For corporate profits, most analysts expect corporate profit margins to contract (next subsection). If that Hits: 8
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf and 26.1 percent. Both series are highly sensitive to C corporation profits and corporate cash flow. Due to the reduction in business sales, corporations will be motivated to retain cash by reducing dividends and share buybacks.  Corporate profits decline by 15 and 25 percent. This national profit series declined in 2007 Hits: 8
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf adds back an estimated -$200 million impact in FY 2022-23 due to the phase-in of the CNIT rate reduction.)  Inheritance tax revenues (45.7%) outperformed economic growth, largely due to the inflation of assets such as stock holdings whether the overperformance of certain revenue sources can be maintained and extended, or whether there will be partial reversion that reduces some Economics or Assets 2019 Q1 2023 Q1 Growth Real GDP $709.0 $730.3 3.0% Philadelphia CPI-U Hits: 8
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf collections have been very weak. o July to December growth = 2.1%.  Will it continue? o Higher federal taxes reduce disposable income in 2013. o Psychological impact: fiscal cliff and debt ceiling. o Any residual pent‐up demand? 23.Jan Rate on Gains and Dividends ‐$0.55 billion ACA Provisions on High Income ‐$0.75 billion TOTAL ‐$7.70 billion Reduction in Disposable Income could imply an ‐$85 million hit to SUT for full calendar year (full phase in). 23.Jan Hits: 8
Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf additional detail regarding the net wage gains displayed in Table 2.6 of the report. Your letter also inquires about reduced work hours and reduced benefits from a higher minimum wage. The attached table presents the gross figures (i.e., the gains prior to any Hits: 8
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf billion of additional stimulus. The CAA included a smaller round of EIPs ($600 per adult), the extension of UC programs (reduced extra weekly benefit from $600 to $300) and an increase to 1 This research brief does not consider provisions that and business closures, but a significant portion represents new income (1) for unaffected households or (2) that more than offsets reduced income due to job loss or business closures. To the extent that federal monies do not “backfill” amounts that were Hits: 8
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf made by a member in the same way as other employee contributions. Where the county makes these pickup contributions, it reduces the compensation of the member by an equal amount. - 45 - Member Contributions. (Cont’d) A member may elect to contribute 80, 1/70, or 1/60 class. At any time, the board also may authorize a member to elect to reduce the member contribution to one of the lower classes without affecting the calculation of the county annuity portion of the Hits: 8
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf 478.3 Expenditures by Activity (FY 2022-23 Budget) Note: Expenditures in dollar millions. MCARE is Medical Care Availability and Reduction of Error Fund. USTIF is Underground Storage Tank Indemnification Fund. IROF is Insurance Regulation and Oversight Fund. 1 Reinsurance payments the type of insurance and filing. On-time reviews facilitate the introduction of new products at a faster pace and reduce regulatory burden. The activity also includes the Commonwealth’s federal Section 1332 State Relief and Empowerment Waiver Program, which facilitates Hits: 8
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf increased system functionality for improved self-service, (2) increased productivity and efficiencies related to tax filing and refunds and (3) reduced error rates. Three key metrics to monitor include refunds paid within the required time frame, personal income tax (PIT) and file claims electronically in 2022. (See pages 9 to 12.) Enforcement PATH implementation should enhance the department’s ability to reduce accounts receivable and collect delinquent taxes. For example, if a tax filer is due a refund but has an outstanding Hits: 8
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf to SY 2019-20, total school enrollment contracted by roughly 5,000 students per annum, primarily driven by an overall reduction in the school-age population. However, school enrollments in SY 2020-21 declined by 38,000 (-2.0%) over SY 2) addressing the academic impacts of lost instructional time through evidence-based summer learning and comprehensive afterschool programs and (3) reduc- ing chronic absenteeism associated with at-risk student groups. Across all strategies, the plan seeks to advance equity and access Hits: 8
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx firms shift R&D spending (wages) into state ▪ May increase entrepreneurial activity, but takes long time to show up ▪ Significant reduction of CNIT for large firms that claim every year ▪ F lows to target industries | pay high wages | many export based for 93-94 cents per dollar | possible 5% transaction fee ▪ Potential leakage: ~$1.6 million ▪ Simplifies administration | helps small firms | reduces cost to state Address credit oversubscription | anticipate it will continue ▪ Tiered rate structure | per firm cap | eliminate contract labor payments Hits: 8
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf 1) again in current session and (2) in a public referendum before taking effect. HB 405 of 2015 (millage / homestead reduction).  Combination of millage reductions and homestead exclusions aiming to reduce school property taxes by approximately one-third to one-half.  Revenues supplied by Hits: 8
NAP-2018-03.pdf prevention. Community Services – The provision of counseling or advice, emergency assistance, food assistance, or medical assistance. Crime Prevention – Efforts to reduce crime. Education – Educational instruction or scholarship assistance. Job Training – Vocational instruction that allows an individual to attain a higher level when a NAP tax credit is utilized. For example, a NAP credit of 55 percent on a $100,000 contribution reduces the cost of the donation by $35,750. (See Table 1.) This calculation utilizes the 2017 federal corporate net income Hits: 8
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf Resource Enhancement and Protection (REAP) Goals ▪ Encourage private investment in the implementation of best management practices (BMPs) on agricultural operations ▪ Reduce the financial burden on farmers who implement BMPs ▪ Increase voluntary compliance with environmental and agricultural management laws Purpose ▪ Improve water quality by reducing nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment pollution through BMPs October 24, 2022 5 REAP Awards and Project Funding October 24, 2022 6 Hits: 8
index.cfm budget for FY 24-25 to update deficit estimates for the current and subsequent fiscal year. ... (Full Report) Corporate Rate Reduction and Higher NOL Cap Economics and Other July 17, 2024 This research brief examines two recent provisions that reduce corporate net income tax liability: a lower tax rate and a higher net operating loss (NOL) deduction threshold. The provisions Hits: 8
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf to strong hold harmless provisions. ▪ Compared to other states, Pennsylvania has the highest allowance for administrative and other costs. This reduces the number of scholarships available to students. ▪ The top ten Educational Improvement Tax Credit (EITC) organizations received 26% of contribu- contribution. ▪ For states that have an income limitation, most tie income limits to the FPL or the federal free and reduced-price lunch program guidelines (FRL). Five states (Arizona, Georgia, Montana, South Car- olina and Utah) have no income limitation for Hits: 7
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf a tax incentive for brewers. Six states offer a tax credit for brewers, five states offer a tax exemption or reduced tax rate and one state offers a tax rebate. Requirements for each incentive vary but most states provide larger benefits encourage brewery start-ups and production. Six states offer tax credits and the remaining states (except Arkansas) offer a tax reduction/exemption. Pennsyl- vania is the only state that offers an incentive based on brewing equipment and machinery pur- chases. Brewer Hits: 7
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf job creation. Instead, the OBMD seeks to improve outcomes for patients awaiting organ and bone marrow transplants by reducing financial barriers to living donation. Currently, 21 states (including Pennsylvania) offer a tax incentive to mitigate the expenses associated with living organ Donation Tax Credit (OBMD) seeks to improve outcomes for patients awaiting an organ or bone marrow transplant by reducing the financial barriers to living donation. The tax credit is available to firms that provide a paid leave of absence to an Hits: 7
PICPA_Presentation.pdf amounts are in millions. Source: FY 2017-18 Executive Budget presentation, Feb. 7, 2017. Excludes all policy initiatives. Proposed Deficit Reduction June 7, 2017 17 2-Year Impact Revenue Package $1,006 Revenue Enhancements 304 Loans or Leasebacks 335 Gaming Expansion 250 Reduce Tax Credits 100 Consolidation/Closures/Complement 351 2016-17 DHS Savings 165 Pupil Transport Savings & U. Penn Appropriation 82 Miscellaneous Hits: 7
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf Drug and Alcohol Programs (DDAP) is to engage, coordinate and lead the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania’s efforts to prevent and reduce drug, alcohol and gambling addiction and abuse; and to promote recovery, thereby reducing the human and economic impact of the disease. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by DDAP are classified Hits: 7
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf services peaked prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recent data suggest that COVID-19 federal dollars may have reduced waiting lists for services. The statewide OPTIONS waitlist declined from 3,533 residents at the end of FY 2018-19 has been a statewide effort to provide more long-term services and supports within home- and community-based settings to reduce or delay the need for more costly institutional services (i.e., nursing home care). These efforts cross several activities within Hits: 7
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf online submissions (e.g., corporate registrations, UCC filings and charity registrations). Electronic submission of registrations and filings should reduce de- partment labor costs and data entry errors. Policymakers should monitor the cost savings from electronic submission to confirm that all cost- number of Pennsylvania resi- dents registered to vote.  Improve the administration of elections throughout the Commonwealth to reduce the number of provisionally-cast ballots and absentee ballots that are rejected. 4  Process applications for appointment from notary public candidates Hits: 7
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf prior year  Positives: housing market, sales tax revenues show strong growth Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now than 2019  Combined reporting vs rate reduction: what is the trade off? March 31, 2021 2 General Fund Financial Statement (Jan 2021) March 31, 2021 3 19- Hits: 7
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf Bond debt service. This transfer will occur by April 30, 2024. The provision takes effect immediately and is projected to reduce FY 2023-24 cigarette tax revenues by $115.3 million. Table Games Tax Transfer to the Sports Tourism and Marketing initially enacted for FY 2022-23 only. The provision is effective immediately, makes the transfer permanent and is projected to reduce FY 2023-24 table games tax revenues by $5.0 million. Personal Income Tax Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Hits: 7
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf three factors. The first two factors relate to the enactment of the federal TCJA of 2017. That act reduced the federal corporate net income tax rate from 35 to 21 percent. Due to that significant rate reduction, it is likely that many corporations shifted taxable income out of TY 2017 into TY 2018. To the extent that occurred, those Hits: 6
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf reported Total Income, Taxable Income, various deductions and tax credits, and Tax Liability. The data suggest that the act likely reduced the federal income tax of Pennsylvania residents by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. While lower income taxpayers benefited strong capital gains and dividends. For 2018, the growth of capital gain and dividend income is likely related to the reduction in the corporate net income tax rate from 35 to 21 percent for tax year 2018. For the high income Hits: 6
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf 10%.  Labor market not fully competitive: minimum wage = (1) higher prices, (2) lower profits, (3) business savings (e.g., reduced turnover). Critical Factor: what would have happened if no change?  Most of the impact is subtle: a slower pace Advocates:  Alleviates poverty.  Greater job satisfaction.  Less turnover.  Expands the economy and generates tax revenues.  Reduces expenditures on healthcare programs (Medicaid). Raised by Opponents:  They are "starter" wages paid to inexperienced workers.  Most who Hits: 6
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf FY 2020-21, a decline of 13 (-48%) from FY 2016-17. This decline at least partially resulted from the reduction in dining at restau- rants due to the pandemic. Retail food inspections per inspector averaged 406 in FY 2020-21 movement of food from farms, processors and other channels to those at risk of hunger. The intended outcome is a reduction in food insecurity throughout the state. 1 For the period of 2016 to 2018, which is the latest period of Hits: 6
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf three factors. The first two factors relate to the enactment of the federal TCJA of 2017. That act reduced the federal corporate net income tax rate from 35 to 21 percent. Due to that significant rate reduction, it is likely that many corporations shifted taxable income out of TY 2017 into TY 2018. To the extent that occurred, those Hits: 6
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf impact: +$32.9 million. ▪ New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) collections from new wells drilled and (2) reduced collections from aging wells that pay lower fees. The increase in new wells paying the fee more than offset the shown in Table 3 (next page), the ETR was relatively stable from CY 2018 to CY 2019, as a 20% reduction in fee revenues was offset by a 19% decline in the market value of gas. For CY 2020, the ETR Hits: 6
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf estimates for 2024) 3 Share of borrowers that continued to pay off loans ▪ NYFRB (2022): 19% of borrowers continued to reduce balances (41% pre-Covid) ▪ Katz (2023): 44% of new forbearance liquidity used to pay student loans (2020) ▪ IRS: student loan 2021 (latest available) ▪ Both years include special recovery programs embedded in BEA data ▪ Economic interactions could be quite different IMPLAN reduces inputs for income tax and savings ▪ Taxes must be neutralized | payments made from after-tax income ▪ Savings rate 0% for Hits: 6
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf 2022, total net migration (domestic and international) by individual age is calculated using a four-year average migration rate to reduce the impact of the unusual migrant flows during COVID-19. 8 Total model net migration is then distributed proportionally between to 2030. ▪ From 2015 to 2020, estimated net migration was 97,000. For 2020 to 2025, the projections assume a reduction to a net inflow of 77,000. Net migration is lower moving forward because the forecast is based on migration Hits: 6
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf  IFO projects six years needed to return to pre-pandemic level Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now than 2019  Combined reporting vs rate reduction: what is the trade off? March 11, 2021 2 General Fund Financial Statement (Jan 2021) March 11, 2021 3 19- Hits: 6
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf published a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for the current fiscal year and concluded that a $150 million reduction to the estimate was warranted. (For comparison, our revised estimate is about $112 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor for the current fiscal year. The recent Executive Budget did not change the certified number.) The IFO’s reduction was based on two factors: • At the mid-point in the fiscal year, growth rates for the General Fund and Hits: 6
2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for CY 2023 was $2.74 per MMBtu, a reduction of $3.91 (-58.8%) from the prior year. Producers paid the highest fee amount possible for CY 2022 due impact: -$84.1 million. ▪ New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) collections from new wells drilled and (2) reduced collections from aging wells that pay lower fees. There were fewer new wells drilled in CY 2023 than any year Hits: 6
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf of qualified spending. It is noted that the factor could be higher in the future because the tax credit is reduced to 10 percent of qualified spending for projects that qualify for the credit longer than four years. (The average VGP funds (i.e., the balanced budget adjustment). 18 To finance the credit, this analysis assumes that state discretionary spending is reduced and those monies would have been spent on education and health care. This economic offset is also reflected in the Hits: 5
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf Labor Income More Than Offset October 29, 2020 2 Estimate Notes Lost Labor Income ($ billions) Wages-Salaries -$20.8 6% reduction vs no-pandemic scenario Self-Employment -3.2 15% reduction vs no-pandemic scenario Tips -1.5 high degree of uncertainty Total -25.5 excludes any unreported income UC and Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf Fund tax revenues increased by only $31 million (0.1%), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error declined at revenues (12.4%). The escheats error was attributable to the underestimation of the revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf Fund tax revenues increased by only $31 million (0.1%), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error declined at revenues (12.4%). The escheats error was attributable to the underestimation of the revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the Hits: 5
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf increased by only $31 million (0.1 percent), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error declined at the January percent). The escheats error was attributable to the underestimation of the revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the policy change Hits: 5
RB_2024_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf the 2022 homeowner-renter property tax burden by county. The homeowner-renter property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which reduced school district property taxes by $673 million in FY 2022-23. The table on page 2 lists each county’s values for CY 2022 as reported by the State Tax Equalization Board (STEB). Each county’s property tax total was reduced by its share of assessed value that was not attributable to residential and rental properties (i.e., commercial, industrial and Hits: 5
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf resumption of loan payments, the analysis uses the IMPLAN input-output model for Pennsylvania. The repayments are treated as a reduction in disposable household income, similar to an increase in federal income taxes or state sales tax. Because borrowers have unique existing savings or amounts that would have been saved) to finance one-third of repayments, while lower-income borrowers must reduce consumption to make repayments. 7 The IMPLAN model reduces disposable income for households in each group and simulates the impact Hits: 5
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf Census Bureau show that for Pennsylvania, younger workers in the 22-24 and 25-34 age cohorts recorded the largest reduction in relative payroll employment levels and employment-population ratios across all age groups. 1 Overall, the data show a reduction in the employment-population ratio of 4.7 percentage points and 341,800 (-6.1%) payroll jobs from 2019 Q2 Hits: 5
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf be available until 2022, as the systems incorporate changes to actuarial assumptions and methodologies. However, these strong preliminary returns will reduce the UAL and employer contribution rates in future years for both systems. 1 PSERS Projects Its Highest Net Investment Return revenues increased by approximately $2.0 billion due to revenue delays resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. FYE 2021 values reduced by same amount. Source: Various reports issued by the IFO, SERS and PSERS. Calculations by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 5
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf loans that did not intend to lay off employees. Other firms that received loans might not have incurred a revenue reduction, or incurred only a brief, temporary reduction that was recouped in subsequent months. The SBA Inspector General has also noted that there were strong indicators of “widespread Hits: 5
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf for FY 2028-29 and beyond are assumed to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the reduction of the corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. 1 See: Stress Testing Analysis: Pennsylvania Public School Employees appropri- ations would account for 1.9% of General Fund revenues over this time frame, a 0.4 percentage point reduction from the baseline. Scenario 2: Low Investment Return The table on the next page displays results from 2% underperformance (5% Hits: 5
MTR-2016-09.pdf 6,614 $6,555 $59 Growth -1.8% -1.5% -26.6% Dollar amounts are in millions. WEAK GLOBAL DEMAND REDUCES DAIRY PRICES U.S. consumers have recently benefited from very low inflation in 2015 (0.1% annual increase) and 2016 prices falling by nearly 20% during the past two years. Some articles attribute the decline to falling energy prices, which reduce refrigeration and transportation costs. 3 However, other factors are also relevant for the dairy industry. A major factor in the Hits: 5
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf Jan.2015 21 Inheritance Tax July to January +$106 February to June ‐6 Total Change +100  Licenses and Fees reduced by $50 million because a casino license fee included in the estimate will not be received.  Miscellaneous Revenues reduced by $95 million because a projected transfer from the Oil and Gas Lease Fund will not occur.  Estimate still Hits: 5
IFO_Presentation_HB1379_Sept_2023.pdf Amounts • Retired 5-10 Years: $75/mo. • Retired 10-20 Years: $150/mo. • Retired 20+ Years: $300/mo. ▪ Off-sets • Reduce by 65% of previous COLAs. • No “double dipping” from multiple systems. September 7, 2023 3 For Municipalities ▪ Reimburse municipalities for Based on local share of total municipal pension contributions. ▪ Funding for reimbursement comes from general municipal pension aid, which will reduce funds available. Foster & Foster Findings Police Fire Total Individuals 20,692 5,528 26,220 Ann. Benefit Increase ($m) $30 Hits: 5
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf each of the next five fiscal years. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 18 15.Nov.2012 Demographic Projections  Reduction in residents under age 20 (0.5 percent) from 2010 to 2020.  Should help temper budget pressures for education Outlook Slide 35 15.Nov.2012 Revenues FY 2012-13 Overview – Highlights  3% overall revenue growth; includes $308 million reduction from phase-out of CSFT.  Specific discussion of the three largest revenue sources (PIT, SUT & CNIT).  Comparison of Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf 14 -$71 -$63 -$58 -$56 permanent loss to growth tr Wages Paid ($ billion) November 2019 $353 $395 $380 $395 $410 reduces PIT by ~$350 million January 2021 $354 $350 $366 $382 $399 reduces SUT by ~$150 million Change $1 -$16 -$13 -$12 -$11 Payroll Jobs (000s) November 2019 6,060 6,105 6 Hits: 5
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf 14 -$71 -$63 -$58 -$56 permanent loss to growth tr Wages Paid ($ billion) November 2019 $353 $395 $380 $395 $410 reduces PIT by ~$350 million January 2021 $354 $350 $366 $382 $399 reduces SUT by ~$150 million Change $1 -$16 -$13 -$12 -$11 Payroll Jobs (000s) November 2019 6,060 6,105 6 Hits: 5
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf the virus and recovered. Further- more, behaviors such as increased hygiene and social distancing since March have likely reduced the death rate of influenza and other infectious diseases. Other circumstances that influence death rates, including traffic fatalities, drug use, suicide and positive net migration is due to net inflows from international migration. The most recent data also reveal a reduction in outflows from net domestic migration.  Although not shown explicitly in the table, declining college enrollment also impacts state demo- graphic Hits: 5
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds. The computation assumes that one-third of the tax cut in the first 0.5% 3.4% Note: Figures exclude the budget impact from eliminating the ACA individual mandate. JCT estimates that provision reduces outlays by $297 billion and reduces debt by $314 billion over ten years. Sources: Supporting documentation may be found at Hits: 5
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania The fiscal cliff, a term used to describe various tax in- creases and spending reductions, was largely averted due to the enactment of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012. The act extended most tax cuts originally enacted in 2002, 2003 and 2009. However, the payroll tax cut, which reduced the employee OASDI tax rate from 6.2 to 4.2 percent during 2011 and 2012, was al- lowed to Hits: 5
2004_srpvffinal.pdf DC pension plan mean that the investment experience impacts on the benefit amount, increasing it when earnings are higher and reducing it when earnings are lower. Therefore, the employer, as the residual contributor, bears the investment risk in a DB pension earnings are less than the amount to be credited pursuant to a specified rate. Crediting actual investment earnings would also reduce administrative complexity associated with the disposition or allocation of investment earnings in excess of a specified rate. The contributions and Hits: 5
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf made in the order in which approved applications are received. If requests for investment authority exceed $50 million, DCED will reduce the investment authority and credit-eligible contributions for each approved application proportionally based upon the amount of investment authority sought rural business report is evaluated by DCED and DOR for compliance. Failure to submit the report may result in the reduction of investment authority or credit-eligible capital contribution authority of the rural growth fund. 9 The jobs must have been Hits: 4
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf was established in FY 2016-17 to provide for the administration of mixed-use development grant funds. 11 After a reduction for PHFA’s administrative costs, $8.2 million was available for grants for the period FY 2017-18 to FY parking for residents and guests. The main benefits noted were the overall convenience, efficient use of the land and the reduc- tion in long-term maintenance costs. These projects can also enhance communities. Despite existing chal- lenges, developers are still investing Hits: 4
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf had already been approved in a prior application year. Because these programs receive priority when credits are allocated, they effectively reduce the amount available to other NAP Tax Credit component programs. NAP Tax Credits are awarded by DCED after the contributions use of state and private funds. 20 To finance the credit, this analysis assumes that state discretionary spend- ing is reduced and those monies would have been spent on education and health care. 21 The alternative use of private funds assumes Hits: 4
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf tourism. Based on the state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii’s sales tax is reduced by 7% and Nevada by 12% to account for each state’s unusually large share of sales tax attributable to in the U.S. (8.99%), but separate-entity reporting and the sales-only factor used in the apportionment formula reduce the overall tax burden. 10 Pennsylvania may also have a relatively high level of business activity that is attributable to Hits: 4
SR2017-05.pdf on the number of homesteads reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education for FY 2015-16 Act 1 Property Tax Reduction Allocations. Philadelphia data adjusted based on information from the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, State Tax classified by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. 1 Current and interim property tax collections. Excludes (1) Act 1 property tax reduction allocations and (2) delinquent tax collections. 2 Estimated by the IFO. Excludes the portion of the school district tax levy Hits: 4
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf range from $1,900 to $2,500 per filer or dependent. The net result is a $2.7 billion (-20%) reduction in total tax collections, with lower income groups paying less overall, and higher income groups paying more. Note that the Any income not deducted is taxed at a flat 3.00% rate. That deduction was not included and would further reduce tax liability computed using the Ohio tax regime. PA Tax OH Tax Liability Liability $ Diff PA Income Group $1 - $29 Hits: 4
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf total spend of $719 million in FY 2017-18, which decreased to $621 million in FY 2019-20 due to reductions in federal funds and the Lottery Fund. The spending reduction is primarily due to a shift from the PennCare appropriation in the Department of Aging to the MA- CHC appropriation Hits: 4
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf as approximations only. They do not incorporate effective dates or a compliance phase-in. In addition, the estimates are not reduced for administrative costs, which would likely be significant under this proposal. ▪ The estimates include the impact of changes in behavior counties by out-of-state (or out-of-county) sellers. Imposing the tax with the same local situs could materially reduce collections (10% to 15%). The projections included in the enclosed table assume the new SUT (including that imposed on food Hits: 4
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf approximations only. The estimates do not incorporate effective dates or a compliance phase-in. In addition, the estimates are not reduced for administrative costs, which would likely be significant under this proposal.  The estimates include the impact of changes in counties by out of state (or out of county) sellers. Imposing the tax with the same local situs could materially reduce collections (5-10 percent). The projections included in the enclosed table assume the new SUT (including that imposed on food Hits: 4
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf of foster care placement and for pregnant or parenting foster youth. At the same time, the Act incentivizes states to reduce placement of children in congregate care by curtailing the use of federal funds for congregate care beyond 14 days with Dollar amounts in millions. Potential Fiscal Impact 2021 2022 2023 Additional federal funding for prevention services $3.2 TBD TBD Reduced federal funding for congregate care -$32.6 -$44.7 -$46.6 Waiver program expiration-transition funding TBD TBD TBD Delay Hits: 4
RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf It is also noted that these data reflect the corporate tax rate of 9.99%, before Act 53 of 2022 reduced the tax rate to 8.99% for TY 2023 and phased-in lower rates to 4.99% by TY 2031 income) apportioned to Pennsylvania totaled $34.21 billion. Firms claimed $4.26 billion of net operating loss (NOL) deductions to reduce taxable income by 12.5%. NOLs are unused tax losses carried forward from prior tax years that can be used Hits: 4
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf million tons of carbon dioxide, a 4.9% decrease from 2018. The other top five electricity exporters recorded larger emissions reductions, but a reduction or flat growth in net generation. Pennsylvania was the only state to record a significant increase in net generation and Hits: 4
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf 16 or older were either employed or actively seeking work. 3 For September 2022, the LFPR was 61.7%, a reduction of 1.3 percentage points (ppts). Since September 2019, the state labor force (i.e., actively employed or seeking employment by 120,000 workers. For the U.S., the respective figures are 63.2% (September 2019) and 62.3%, a reduction of 0.9 ppts. The U.S. data show slightly more contraction for men (-1.0 ppt) than women (-0 Hits: 4
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf delayed basis. Due to the initial state revenue loss from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (DOT) reduced FY 2019-20 highway and bridge program expenditures by $430 million from the prior year. 8 Subsequently, a substantial amount of federal transportation funds has been received by DOT and may be used to offset the initial program reduction. 8 See the IFO’s Department of Transportation Performance-Based Budget Report. Figure 2 State Gas Tax Revenue and Consumption Hits: 4
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf August, average hourly earnings increased by 4.4%, while the CPI-U grew by 4.6%, yielding a 0.2% reduction in real average hourly earnings. That outcome implies workers have less purchasing power. The data show that the decline in compensation benefits, which ended the first week of September. That expiration could alleviate some pressures in the labor market and reduce nominal wage growth. The table also shows detail for four sectors. For the leisure and hospitality sector, which tends to Hits: 4
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf investment returns) for the first 20 years. This scenario results in cumulative savings of $8.2 billion, a 15.4% reduction to baseline employer contributions. The system would be 100% funded in 2033 and ends the projection period funded at 189 PSERS Stress Test Impact Analysis | Page 5 Scenario 3: Low Employer Contributions The final scenario considers the impact that a reduction in employer contributions, sometimes referred to as “pension collars,” could have on the system. The scenario assumes that for the Hits: 4
Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf recession.  Employer contributions. • Determined actuarially after accounting for fund liabilities, employee contributions and investment earnings. • Affected by “collars” that reduce contributions below actuarially determined levels. 7/15/2015 5 Current Pension Plan Funding  Employer normal cost – the annual employer the two pension systems are based on the 7.5% earnings assumption. Unfunded liabilities increase when the earnings assumption is reduced. A one percentage point reduction in the long-term rate of return (7.5% to 6.5%) increases liabilities: • SERS Hits: 4
Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf the current year of service (normal cost) and (2) amortization of the UAL.  Act 120 of 2010 – legislation that reduced benefits for employees hired after 1/1/2011 (SERS) and 7/1/2011 (PSERS).  Rate collars – limitations on how fund liabilities, employee contributions and investment earnings. Effectively, one could think of it as a “residual.” • Affected by “collars” that reduce contributions below actuarially determined levels. 3/26/2015 7 Defined Benefit Plan Funding SERS PSERS Total Actuarial Value of Assets Hits: 4
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf That result could imply that toll roads are used more frequently when fuel prices are high, as drivers attempt to reduce distance traveled. Note on Toll Rates Used in Statistical Analysis This analysis converts all economic and toll rate variables into the elasticity or responsiveness increased by roughly 0.04. Before the toll increase, a 10.0 percent toll increase would reduce demand by 1.3 to 1.9 percent. After the toll increase, that range is roughly 1.7 to 2 Hits: 4
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf then converted to a cash estimate by adjusting to the current cigarette tax rate. The estimate is then reduced to account for the impact of the applicable annual transfers. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Revenue $977 $927 $912 and recent revenue collections. Statutory changes to the bank shares tax effective January 1, 2014 include (1) the reduction of the tax rate from 1.25 percent to 0.89 percent, (2) the elimination of the six-year moving average to Hits: 4
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf then converted to a cash estimate by adjusting to the current cigarette tax rate. The estimate is then reduced to account for the impact of the annual Philadelphia cigarette tax transfer and the transfers to CHIP and to ACEP. 2013 2014 and recent revenue collections. Statutory changes to the bank shares tax effective January 1, 2014 include (1) the reduction of the tax rate from 1.25 percent to 0.89 percent, (2) the elimination of the six-year moving average to Hits: 4
MRU-2020-04.pdf the shortfall is almost entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $385 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $140 million in processing delays or delayed due dates (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year with the entire shortfall attributable to the virus. The IFO estimates that roughly $105 million is permanently lost due to reduced economic activity ($135 million FYTD), $55 million is tied to processing delays that will reverse this fiscal year and $1 Hits: 4
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdf impact: -$85.9 million. ▪ New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) collections from new wells drilled and (2) reduced collections from aging wells that pay lower fees. Collections from new wells did not offset the impact of aging wells the ETR increased significantly from CY 2019 to CY 2020. This was entirely attributable to the substantial year-over-year reduction in the market value of natural gas (-52%), which more than offset the decrease in collections (-27%). The decline in Hits: 4
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf regional prices, as the low NYMEX average price caused a downward adjustment of the fee schedule, and low regional prices reduced the market value of Pennsylvania natural gas. Operating Collections Year 1 Horizontal Vertical Horizontal Vertical ($ millions) 1 475 0 $40 CY 2020, the ETR increased by 1.2 percentage points. This was entirely attributable to the substantial year-over-year reduction in market value (-52.4%), which more than offset lower collections (-27.0%). The contraction in market value, which was Hits: 4
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf year, and declines as the well ages. (See Table 2.) Revenue from the 504 new wells spud did not offset reduced collections from older wells as their fees decline. Net impact: ‐$7.8 million.  Exempt status and other. Includes the net effect of: (1) reduced collections from newly‐exempt wells as their production falls below the 90 Mcf threshold; (2) collections from previously‐exempt wells Hits: 4
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf 2019 is $198.2 million, which represents a $53.6 million decrease from the prior year. The components of the reduction are as follows:  Lower fee schedule. The average annual price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange the highest impact fee in their first operating year. The collections from wells in operating year one more than offset reduced collections from (1) older wells as their fees decline and (2) wells that stopped remitting the fee altogether. Table 2 Hits: 4
IFO_Testimony_CR_June_29_2023.pdf to the state based on the activity of the combined group within the state. Advocates assert that the filing method reduces a firm’s ability to shift profits to low or no tax states through related-party transactions and is subject Expansion $300 to $350 million per annum, full phase-in 9% Base Expansion $450 to $500 million • These include rate reduction, which reduces incentives to shift profits to other states, the codification of economic nexus and market sourcing, which expand the Hits: 4
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf as approximations only. They do not incorporate effective dates or a compliance phase-in. In addition, the estimates are not reduced for administrative costs, which would likely be significant under this proposal.  The estimates include the impact of changes in counties by out-of-state (or out-of-county) sellers. Imposing the tax with the same local situs could materially reduce collections (e.g., -10% to -15%). The projections included in the enclosed table assume the new SUT (including that imposed Hits: 4
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf Housing Units by Age of Householder (March 2018) Federal Tax Code Conformity Analysis (April 2018) Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction (April 2018) Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update (August 2018) IFO News Stand (select months) • Property Tax School District Property DCED programs 59 GF transfers for debt service and other costs 187 Sub-Total 338 Due to Changes in Policy Reduce PlanCon payment from GF (new debt) 214 Eliminate reimbursement to WC Security Fund 165 New fee for PSP 104 Minimum Hits: 4
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf poison control centers and marijuana addiction treatment admissions. Increased use of these services drives public health-related expenditures and would reduce the net revenues from legalization of recreational marijuana. Emergency Department Visits The table below displays emergency department (ED) visits and persons driving under the influence of marijuana (marijuana-related DUIs). There are also likely public safety cost savings due to reduced arrests and court filings for marijuana possession and sale. These and other possible cost savings related to recreational marijuana legalization Hits: 4
Electricity_Update_2024.pdf Page 2 CO 2 Emissions Despite generation growth since 2018, the IFO estimates that the Pennsylvania power sector continues to reduce both absolute and per unit CO 2 emissions. Estimated emissions for 2023 (68 million tons) declined by 10.8% from 2023 decline is nearly double the 2020 rate (-6.6%), when emissions were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and reduced economic activity. Table 3 shows net generation, estimated emissions and emissions per unit of generation for Pennsylvania and regional states Hits: 4
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook (January 2021). New Municipal Fee for State Police Services PlanCon Funding Program Eliminations/Funding Reductions Executive Budget Independent Fiscal Office 14 March 2021 General Fund Education Expenditures State General Fund Education Spending ($ millions) Note: Includes Executive Budget: $4.0 to $4.2 billion | IFO: $3.7 to $3.9 billion (per annum, includes higher refunds) Reduces or does not change tax for 60% of filers. For 2018, roughly 72% of tax forgiven was withheld. Single - No Hits: 4
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf Note: millions of dollars. Source: FY 2017-18 Executive Budget presentation, Feb. 7, 2017. Excludes all policy initiatives. Proposed Deficit Reduction February 28, 2017 4 2-Year Impact Revenue Package $1,006 Revenue Enhancements 304 Loans or Leasebacks 335 Gaming Expansion 250 Reduce Tax Credits 100 Consolidation/Closures/Complement 351 2016-17 DHS Savings 165 Pupil Transport Savings & U. Penn Approp. 82 Miscellaneous Hits: 4
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf the previous decade, net migration was 195,000 (19,500 per annum). For 2020 to 2030, the projections assume a reduction to an average net inflow of 7,700 per annum. Net migration is lower moving forward because the forecast is over time, that outcome is mostly due to the general aging of the population. Table 3.3 shows a significant reduction in the share of decedents for residents age 85 and older. The reduction is partially due to the large influx Hits: 4
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf 0 percent. Technical factors, such as the complete phase‐out of the capital stock and franchise tax, restrain revenues and reduce the underlying base growth rate from 3.3 to 2.0 percent. Long‐Term Budget Outlook The IFO recently released years. Prior budgets have employed various temporary measures to address funding shortfalls. For example, the unexpectedly large revenue gain from reducing the escheats holding period generated $380 million in new revenues last fiscal year, and contributed to a carryforward balance of Hits: 4
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf showed weak expansion in 2016 and acceleration in 2017. 4 For 2016, total consumer debt increases modestly due to a reduction in primary mortgage debt. 5 Consumer inflation in both the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro regions begins to accelerate. 6 Gasoline 2.7% 0.5% 8.3% -2.1% Note: Millions of dollars. Slots and table games revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds. Source: IFO forecast from Gaming Trends Research Brief, February 2017. Dollar Amounts Hits: 4
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf showed weak expansion in 2016 and acceleration in 2017. 4 For 2016, total consumer debt increases modestly due to a reduction in primary mortgage debt. 5 Consumer inflation in both the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro regions begins to accelerate. 6 Gasoline 2.7% 0.5% 8.3% -2.1% Note: Millions of dollars. Slots and table games revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds. Source: IFO forecast from Gaming Trends Research Brief, February 2017. Dollar Amounts Hits: 4
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf current-year collections in FY 2020-21 is the result of flat millage rates combined with a projected tax base reduction of 1.5 percent due to economic distress related to the COVID-19 pandemic. A July 2020 IFO report projected that current-year school district property taxes could be reduced by 1.9 percent statewide due to various factors related to the pandemic. 2 This analysis reflects a more moderate Hits: 4
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf in 2013 will have an impact on the Pennsylvania economy. The Independent Fiscal Office estimates that the following provisions will reduce the disposable income of Pennsylvania residents by about $7.7 billion. Using reasonable assumptions, a reduction of that magnitude could have an $85 million annual impact on sales and use tax collections once it is fully Hits: 4
Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the historical trend due to workforce turnover: • A -1.5 percent per annum total wage attrition factor. This factor represents the reduction in total wages paid solely due to the fact that more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are Hits: 3
Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the trend due to workforce turnover:  A -1.5 percent per annum total wage attrition factor. This factor represents the reduction in total wages paid solely due to the fact that more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are Hits: 3
Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the historical trend due to workforce turnover: • A -1.5 percent per annum total wage attrition factor. This factor represents the reduction in total wages paid solely due to the fact that more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are Hits: 3
Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the per annum workforce attrition factor.  A -1.5 percent per annum total wage attrition factor. This factor represents the reduction in total wages paid solely due to the fact that more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are Hits: 3
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce September 27, 2021 Page 2 turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from Hits: 3
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
UFCW_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf Value of tax credit much less than $4.00 per ton coal refuse burned ▪ Pro-ration due to oversubscription + leakage reduces to $2.70 per ton in latest year ▪ Nearly all credits sold | ~15% leakage to sales discounts and transfer fees ground and water pollution for certain pollutants Recommendations ▪ Target remaining Priority 1 and 2 piles that inflict greatest environmental harm ▪ Reduce 15% program leakage (grant or partial refundability) ▪ Base credits on average wholesale prices | roll unused credits forward January 24, 2022 Hits: 3
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf the Waterfront Walkable communities offer more transportation choices, higher levels of social interaction, greater oppor- tunities for physical activity and reduced emissions from automobile traffic. Because waterfronts have a natural land barrier which prevents development from exceeding the space (i.e these areas must make efficient use of space. As a result, improving the connection between pedestrians and the water can reduce the pressures of seasonal automobile traffic. However, a walkable community requires a com- prehensive approach that covers multiple aspects of Hits: 3
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf tourism. Based on the state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii’s sales tax is reduced by 15% and Nevada by 25% to account for each state’s unusually large share of sales tax likely attributable third highest CNIT rate in the U.S. (9.99%), but the sales-only factor used in the apportionment formula reduces the overall tax burden. 7 All amounts are net of refunds. 8 Per the U.S. Census Bureau’s documentation Hits: 3
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf on the state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii’s sales tax is reduced by 15 percent and Nevada by 25 percent to account for each state’s unusually large share of sales tax likely attributable rate in the U.S. (9.99 percent), but the sales-only factor used in the apportionment formula reduces the overall tax burden. 9 Table 2 Corporate Net Income Tax State Rank Amount Ratio State Rank Amount Ratio Delaware 1 $1 Hits: 3
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf on the state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii’s sales tax is reduced by 12 percent and Nevada by 26 percent to account for each state’s unusually large share of sales tax likely attributable rate in the U.S. (9.99 percent), but the sales-only factor used in the apportionment formula reduces the overall tax burden. 9 Table 2 Corporate Net Income Tax State Rank Amount Ratio State Rank Amount Ratio Delaware 1 $1 Hits: 3
SR2017-03.pdf control for the deductibility of state and local income and real estate taxes from the federal income tax. Those deductions reduce the state and local tax burden and would disproportionately benefit states with higher tax rates. Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent highest tax rate in the U.S. (9.99 percent), but the sales-only factor used in the apportionment formula reduces the overall tax burden. Table 2 Corporate Net Income Tax State Rank Amount Ratio State Rank Amount Ratio Delaware 1 Hits: 3
SR2014-02-ccorder.pdf Author: REDACTED CreationDate: 2014-03-13 17:48:40 Creator: Neevia DC Pro - PSPDF parser ModDate: 2014-03-14 17:08:18 Producer: Neevia PDFcompress v3.5 (http://neeviaPDF.com) Subject: REDACTED Title: REDACTED Hits: 3
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf and beyond are assumed to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the phase-in of the reduced corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. The IFO analysis also projects the share of pension contributions that the over- performance scenario, cumulative savings ($5.21 billion) exceed additional costs in the underperformance scenario ($4.89 billion) and reduces employer contributions by 29% compared to the baseline. By the end of the projection period, the funded ratio is 121% Hits: 3
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf and other demographic factors. In February 2021, there was a decline of 8.5 million U.S. jobs (-5.4% reduction) relative to the prior year, of which 4.3 million (-5.7% reduction) were held by women. In April 2020, the unemployment rate for women was 15.7% compared to 13.3% for Hits: 3
SEIU_Local_668_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
SEIU_Local_668_UC_Referees_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
SEIU_HCPA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf revision is due to additional federal stimulus provided to Pennsylvania residents after release of the previous forecast that offset the reduction in the property tax collection rate initially anticipated. Estimated delinquent collections in FY 2020-21 are essentially flat, due to for the current fiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes collected from homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. 2 Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf estimate was -$1,304 million, or -3.8% of actual General Fund revenues. 1 The entire shortfall was attributable to reduced economic activity due to business closures and other mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. With the exception of million to the official forecast. COVID- 19 business closures and stay-at-home orders began in March, yielding a dramatic reduction to the General Fund forecast in the May update. This abrupt change in economic conditions resulted in forecast errors of Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf increased by only $31 million (0.1 percent), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error declined at the January percent). The escheats error was attributable to the underestimation of the revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the policy change Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf increased by only $31 million (0.1 percent), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error shrank at the January percent). The escheats error was attributable to the underestimation of the revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the policy change Hits: 3
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf income was adjusted to be consistent with the PTRR Social Security income adjustment. Social Security income for all households was reduced by 50 percent to establish newly eligible households. September 12, 2019 Page 3 If all newly eligible homeowners received a be funded by current Act 1 allocations that are distributed to school districts. The table that follows provides the estimated reduction in Act 1 allocations for each school district necessary to fund the $1,500 version of the proposal. The estimated Hits: 3
RB_2024_07_Budget_Update.pdf than the official estimate certified by the Governor. If the certified estimate is correct, then the projected deficit would be reduced by that amount. Gross revenues are reduced by $203 million to reflect newly-enacted policies that impact revenues such as transfers, tax credits and exemptions. • For FY Hits: 3
RB_2024_05_Treasury.pdf to remain elevated through spring 2025, but lower cash balances resulting from the General Fund operating deficit are expected to reduce Treasury earnings to $600 million. Going forward, each $1 billion decline in the General Fund balance (at current rates) results in a $50 million revenue reduction while each 1 percentage point drop in interest rates (at current balances) results in a $150 million revenue reduction. Staff Hits: 3
RB_2024_03_Jobs_Revised.pdf revision, the average jobs gain for CY 2023 fell from 152,200 jobs to 102,200 jobs, a 50,000 reduction. The jobs gain reduction is somewhat less than the negative revision to the number of CY 2023 jobs because the benchmark process also reduced Hits: 3
RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdf trending downward, primarily due to improved fuel efficiency. When the pandemic began in early 2020, mitigation efforts caused a dramatic reduction in gasoline consumption. As those measures were lifted, many employees retained a hybrid or full-time work-from-home schedule pandemic levels (-9%). Diesel fuel consumption (not shown) was also affected by the pandemic (-3%), but has now fully recovered. Reduced discretionary travel, caused by high retail prices, also contributed to the decline in gasoline consumption. The figure below displays estimates Hits: 3
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdf 98,230 (-22.0%) over the entire 15-year period. The difference between the two scenarios is $34,130 of reduced purchasing power over the entire 15-year period, or -$2,275 per annum on average. The reduced purchasing power is largely due to elevated inflation during 2021 to 2023. 2 These figures reflect an average beneficiary who Hits: 3
RB-2019-01.pdf a well’s first operating year, and declines as the well ages. Revenue from the 779 new wells spud offset reduced collections from older wells as their fees decline or they become exempt. Net impact: +$15.1 million.  Collections from has contributed to ETR changes; however, the changes could reinforce or offset each other. Production has increased each year, which reduces the ETR, absent changes in the other components. Lower fee revenues reduce the ETR, while increases have the opposite effect Hits: 3
RB-2017-5.pdf larger share of residents at the higher end of the income distribution likely save a higher share of income, thereby reducing the effective tax rate. Independent Fiscal Office Page 6 State Comparisons Table 4 ranks states based on the average annual a firm’s business activity within the state and (3) corporations can carry losses forward from prior tax years to reduce current payments. Hence, it is not possible to make general observations regarding the responsiveness of state corporate net income tax Hits: 3
RB-2016-02.pdf programs seek to accomplish this through expenditures, tax breaks, loans or grants. The report excludes provisions that are intended to reduce distortions attributable to the tax code. For example, the sales and use tax excludes most business ‐to‐business purchases. This incentives are designed to encourage certain economic activity and afford qualified taxpayers special treatment within the tax structure. Tax incentives reduce tax liabilities and may take the form of credits, deductions, exemptions or exclusions. The tax incentives below allocate resources through Hits: 3
PSEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the benefits paid to current employees, but July 2, 2020 Page 2 incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf greater share of the workforce Risk Mitigation Under Act 5 6/28/2017 5  Risk mitigation refers to the reduced sensitivity of employer contributions to a reduction in the investment rate of return.  Under defined benefit funding, employer rates increase when investment earnings are lower than Hits: 3
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf Likely to Turn Negative in 2013 or 2014 US PA  Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964 o Retirements greatly reduce the potential labor force. o Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. o Will savings be sufficient to Income Type and Age Cohort Large Job Shift to Service Sector Since Recession o Healthcare, Professional and Food-Accommodation. o Reduction in Manufacturing, Government and Construction. For PA, Healthcare & Social Assistance Sector is Vital o ~19% of private sector jobs in Hits: 3
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets.  Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years.  Spending reductions / restraint for many program areas. Since the recession, budgets have utilized short- term measures to achieve balance.  Expenditures shifted state for age 75+. Three Demographic Waves 7/14/2017 7 Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964.  Retirements greatly reduce the potential labor force.  Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. Generation X or Baby Bust: Born Hits: 3
Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf recession.  Employer contributions. • Determined actuarially after accounting for fund liabilities, employee contributions and investment earnings. • Affected by “collars” that reduce contributions below actuarially determined levels. 4/11/2016 5 Current Pension Plan Funding  Employer normal cost – the annual employer the two pension systems are based on the 7.5% earnings assumption. Unfunded liabilities increase when the earnings assumption is reduced. A one percentage point reduction in the long‐term rate of return (7.5% to 6.5%) increases liabilities: • SERS Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf system actuaries.  Results used in an analysis of a major benefit redesign.  Analysis confirmed that the redesigned plan reduces investment risk from the perspective of plan funders (employers).  Could such analyses be broadened and institutionalized? 7/29/2018 and contribution risks. Implemented using a sensitivity analysis.  Examined the impact of one percentage point and two percentage point reductions in the assumed rate of return.  Quantified the projected change in employer contributions under the current earnings assumption and Hits: 3
PLEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
PDA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf the department ▪ Gasoline consumption is down by roughly 10% ▪ The department scaled back construction lettings in CY 2020 due to reduced revenues ▪ Public transit ridership and revenues down significantly Rapid Bridge Replacement (RBR) program reduced state-owned bridges in poor condition ▪ Beginning in 2015, the RBR P3 program replaced 558 state-owned bridges over a Hits: 3
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf in paper stored for Archives (ft 3 ) -- 1,324 1,351 1,378 1,406 600 Records Center annual paper reduction (ft 3 ) (22,709) (5,442) (398) (3,058) (5,179) (6,000) Agency records received in digital format (GB paper stored for Archives (ft 3 ) 1 -- 1,324 1,351 1,378 1,406 600 Records Center annual paper reduction (ft 3 ) 1 (22,709) (5,442) (398) (3,058) (5,179) (6,000) Archive images added online annually (000s Hits: 3
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf law on July 1, 2019. The MFEP allows spouses and children of PANG members to attend college at no or reduced cost. 2 Unemployment and education data from U.S. Census Bureau. Homelessness data from the U.S. Housing and Urban each home selected by social services staff to provide a cross- section of resident population. In 2017, the number was reduced to 9, but DMVA increased the sample to 15 residents per home per six-month period in 2018 to present Hits: 3
OPEIU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf base is then converted to a cash estimate by adjusting to the current cigarette tax rate. The estimate is then reduced to account for the impact of the applicable annual transfers. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Revenue $912 Transfers/Exemptions None. Methodology The malt beverage tax forecast assumes flat revenue collections. Beginning in FY 2017-18, revenues are reduced by $2 million for the reinstated Brewers’ Tax Credit. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Revenue $25 $24 Hits: 3
NGIFE-2018.pdf a well’s first operating year, and declines as the well ages. Revenue from the 812 new wells spud offset reduced collections from (1) older wells as their fees decline and (2) newly-exempt wells as their production falls below the has contributed to ETR changes; however, the changes could supplement or offset each other. Production has increased each year, which reduces the ETR, absent changes in the other components. Decreases in fee revenues contribute to a reduction in the ETR, while Hits: 3
NGIFE-2016.pdf declines as the well ages (see Table 2). Revenue from the 503 new wells spud is not expected to offset reduced collections from older wells as their fees decline. Estimated net impact: -$9.6 million.  Exempt status and other. Includes the net effect of: (1) reduced collections from newly-exempt wells as their production falls below the 90 mcf threshold; (2) collections from previously-exempt wells Hits: 3
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf in jobs (mostly not filling vacant positions) ▪ Moderate gains to General Fund revenues CNIT Proposal: Broaden Base and Phase in Reduced Rate March 31, 2022 8 Broaden CNIT Base ▪ Broaden current addback provision (+$500M for full year) ▪ Codify Economic Nexus (scored with market-based sourcing) ▪ Adopt market-based sourcing for intangibles (+$194M by FY 27-28) Phase in Reduced CNIT Rate ▪ 7.99% for tax years 2023-2025 ▪ 6.99% for tax year 2026 | 5.99% for tax year Hits: 3
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf transfer from PIT to the Environmental Stewardship Fund was $20 million. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2020-21 PIT withholding revenues by $13.782 million. Cigarette Tax Transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund The act requires a 2020. Prior Law The same transfer occurred in FY 2019-20. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2020-21 cigarette tax revenues by $115.3 million. Licenses and Fees Sports Wagering Fees The act provides that a Category Hits: 3
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf Security Fund no later than September 1, 2018. Prior Law None. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2018-19 PIT withholding collections by $15 mil- lion. Transfer to Retirement Systems for New Defined Contribution Plans (Act 42) The million to Public School Employee Retirement System (PSERS). Prior Law None. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2018-19 PIT withholding collections by $10.1 million. FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 5 Non-Tax Revenue Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf this travel may be eliminated by technology. Meanwhile, other forms of business travel are expected to incur smaller long-term reductions. This includes travel to secure sales and clients (25%) and conventions and trade shows (20%). Reduced business travel will also likely impact leisure travel through increased fares and fewer flights, as business travel represents a large Hits: 3
Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf seasonally adjusted data (i.e., actual amounts) and assumes a no-pandemic scenario for CY 2020. It reflects seasonal hiring/reductions that would occur in a normal year. Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors.) The month-to- month change or full-time jobs in July. However, non-seasonally adjusted payroll jobs typically decline in July largely due to a reduction in the government sector (local school districts). The summer jobs contraction was smaller than normal, possibly due to reductions that Hits: 3
ISSU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf annual increase in wells spud. Estimated impact: +$99.8 million.  New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) reduced collections from aging wells that pay lower fees and wells that become exempt offsetting fees from new wells and (2 CY 2020, the ETR increased by 1.2 percentage points. This was entirely attributable to the substantial year-over-year reduction in market value (-52%), which more than offset the decrease in collections (-27%). The decline in market value was driven Hits: 3
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf We project higher real GDP and wage growth, and strong growth for dividends and capital gains due to the significant reduction in the federal corporate income tax rate from 35 to 21 percent. We have built these impacts into our economic tax cut. Corporations could do any or all of the following: (1) raise worker wages, (2) pay down debt, (3) reduce prices, (4) pay dividends, (5) buy back shares, (6) purchase machinery, equipment or expand and (7) retain the funds as Hits: 3
IFO_Response_Letter_Feb_21_2023.pdf of similar proposals due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) changes enacted under Act 53-2022. In part, those changes reduce the CNIT rate gradually from 8.99% for TY 2023, to 4.99% for TY 2031 and thereafter. The lower CNIT rate has the effect of reducing the value of the NOL stock (unused prior year NOLs that have been carried forward), as they are applied in Hits: 3
IFO_Letter_to_the_SCC.pdf guidance for your consideration. Ideally, the State Conservation Commission (SCC) would annually utilize an environmental model to project the pollution reduction that results from actual best management practices (BMPs) funded by the REAP Tax Credit during that year. The model would expertise, or some other reason), the IFO suggests these potential alternatives: 1. Annually utilize an environmental model to project pollution reduction using a representative sample of REAP funded BMPs implemented during that year and extrapolate those results to all BMPs funded Hits: 3
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf a well’s first operating year, and declines as the well ages. Revenue from the 812 new wells spud offset reduced collections from (1) older wells as their fees decline and (2) newly-exempt wells as their production falls below the has contributed to ETR changes; however, the changes could supplement or offset each other. Production has increased each year, which reduces the ETR, absent changes in the other components. Decreases in fee revenues contribute to a reduction in the ETR, while Hits: 3
IFO ppt.pdf Mortgage Debt / Personal Disposable Income January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Consumer Credit Balances Reduced 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Consumer Credit / Personal Disposable Income January 18, 2012 Independent Consumer Sentiment/Confidence key. Base much of outlook on labor market reports, especially unemployment rate. • For PA, state-local govt reductions appear to have abated for now. • Some room for guarded optimism. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook Hits: 3
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf 2022-23 and will begin to revert to historical levels and trends as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and reduces the money supply. Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr All Private Workers -1.8% -0.1% -3.3% -2.6% -3 52,390 (-17.6%) over the entire 10-year period. The difference between the two scenarios is $22,080 of reduced real purchasing power over the entire 10-year period, or -$2,208 per annum on average. This example illustrates how Hits: 3
FOSCEP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
FOP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf Fund 37.48 41.32 10.3% 46.53 3.0% Note: Billions of dollars. One Time Measures Boost Revenues, Reduce Expenditures March 4, 2022 20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 Notes Federal/Special Fund Transfers $372 $3,841 $2 FMAP $2,070 $2,200 assumed to end 2022 Q2 DHS cost shifts $555 managed care, county child welfare REHP reduction ~$90 ~$90 contributions for retiree healthcare Note: Millions of dollars. Primary Cost Drivers: Annual Change in Spending March 4, 2022 Hits: 3
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf 34,008 36,056 34,008 36,753 0 -697 Supplementals 588 -- 588 -- 0 -- Lack of JUA Transfer -- -- 200 -- -200 -- Reduced PlanCon (Bond Proceeds) -- -- -- -198 -- 198 Program Eliminations/Funding Reductions -- -- -- -197 -- 197 New Municipal Fee for State Police Svs. -- -- -- -136 -- 136 DOC Prison Closure/JRI2/Admin. Savings -- -- -- -134 -- 134 Administrative Hits: 3
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf over time, that outcome is mostly due to the general aging of the population. Table 3.3 shows a significant reduction in the share of decedents for residents age 85 and older. The reduction is partially due to the large influx of Baby Boomers during the forecast period that reduces the median age and Hits: 3
CIVEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf became more difficult, public pension plans maintained earnings assumptions and increased investment risk. Private plans and plans in other countries reduced earnings assumptions. •Incentives & institutions encourage risk taking. Lowering earnings assumptions would require large contribution increases. •Risk to taxpayers & stakeholders in FY 2015 and 2016 that will drive contributions up. Plans and govts should evaluate risk carefully, with an eye toward reducing risk. 2 Liabilities and normal costs in this presentation are based on BEA/FRB estimates, not actuaries’ estimates. Recent years Hits: 3
Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the historical trend due to workforce turnover: • A -1.5 percent per annum total wage attrition factor. This factor represents the reduction in total wages paid solely due to the fact that more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are Hits: 3
ALES_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
AFSCME_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by Hits: 3
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf impact: +$34.7 million. • New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) collections from new wells drilled and (2) reduced collections from aging wells that pay lower fees. The increase in new wells paying the fee more than offset the which outpaced the decline in impact fee collections (-27.0%). The drop in market value was due to the strong reduction in average regional gas prices (-54.3%) caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and related mitigation efforts. The ETR fell Hits: 3
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf c h 2 0 1 3 2012, the ratio declined to 1.07 (-19.6 percent), largely due to significant reductions in mortgage and credit card debt. An important question for the U.S. and Pennsylva- nia economies is whether this forecast projects a slight uptick in the debt- to-DCI ratio. However, the uptick is due to federal changes that reduce income growth, as opposed to an ap- preciable increase in consumer borrowing. Federal changes that reduce DCI growth include the Hits: 3
WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf 63, 7% July 14, 2020 4 Note: Dollars in millions. Other category includes Judicial Services, Social Services, Information Technology, Tax Reductions, Water Preservation and Reclamation, Housing, Planning Initiatives, and Career and Technical Centers. Source: PUC. Southwest County Disbursements July 14, 2020 National price at lowest level in decades  NYMEX average through July is just $1.79.  COVID-19 has reduced demand, amplifying an already present trend - low prices discouraging growth and drilling.  U.S. demand for natural gas to Hits: 2
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf tax remitted by Pennsylvania residents. For example, the U.S. Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the TCJ A will reduce total federal income taxes by $189 billion for federal fiscal year (FFY) 2018- 19, while the UPenn Wharton School estimates a reduction of $169 billion. 1 Based on other federal tax data, the IFO estimates that the Pennsylvania share of the federal Hits: 2
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf those services is also much higher than the U.S. average. Based on these data, Hawaii’s sales tax is reduced by 21% and Nevada by 33% to account for each state’s unusually large share of sales tax attributable to in the U.S. (8.49%), but separate-entity reporting, and the sales-only factor used in the apportionment formula reduce the overall tax burden. 7 Pennsylvania may also have a relatively high level of business activity that is attributable to Hits: 2
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf Administrative Spending District-level administrative spending was $27.8 million. 16.Dec.2014 9 Administrative Spending Each 1% of cost reduction yields savings of $278,000. Administrative Savings Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 25% 50% 75% $6.95 million 8 Total 238.1 243.2 -5.1 Salary structures are very different between school districts. Districts are restricted from reducing salaries without consent of employee or right to hearing. $31.4 million cost (12% increase) to standardize salaries across Hits: 2
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf and beyond are assumed to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the phase-in of the reduced corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. It is noted that all revenue (IFO) and economic (S&P In the overperformance scenario, cumulative savings ($5.0 billion) exceed additional costs in the underperformance scenario ($4.4 billion) and reduces employer contributions by 20.1% compared to the baseline. By the end of the projection period, the funded ratio is Hits: 2
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf 10* 3.1% FY 2010-11* 3.7% See Technical Appendix B for a 30-year history. *Includes property tax reduction allocations from the proceeds of gaming. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 12 percent of business receipts.  one-third of total taxes to state and local govt’s.  Potential for significant reduction in tax.  Firms with much real property gain. 1. Large manufacturers. 2. Firms engaged in rental of real estate Hits: 2
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2024.pdf which caused a median increase of 31% in assessed value for single-family residential properties. 1 • Act 1 Property Tax Reduction Allocations increased from $535 million in FY 2021-22 to $673 million in FY 2022-23. This increase of $138 recent years (70% average). The forecast assumes that rate will remain elevated as school districts manage increased personnel costs and reduced federal support. • Economic growth. Annual tax revenue growth reflects three factors: millage rates, reassessments and new construction. Based on historical Hits: 2
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf properties are added to the assessment rolls or current properties are reassessed based on improvements, and it contracts when appeals reduce the assessed value. The forecast projects that the net tax base expansion will be 1 percent annually through FY 2024- for the current fiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes collected from homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. 2 Hits: 2
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf are added to the assessment rolls or current properties are reassessed based on improvements, and it contracts when assessment appeals reduce the assessed value. The forecast projects that the net tax base expansion will be 0.75 percent annually through FY for the current fiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes collected from homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. 2 Hits: 2
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf 279 -2,159 -3,218 -3,503 -3,979 -4,216 Adjustment for Lapses 205 200 200 200 200 200 Reduced Spending (Fall Update) 450 0 0 0 0 0 Prelim Ending Balance -624 -1,959 -3,018 -3,303 -3 Dec 2025: expiration of many TCJA provisions Federal Reserve Number and timing of rate cuts Ongoing pace of Quantitative Tightening Reduced liquidity from depletion of reserves kept at Federal Reserve Jan 2024 Roundtable Slide 19 Follow us on X (@ind_fisc_office) or Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf increased by only $31 million (0.1 percent), driven by weak economic growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error shrank at the January percent). The escheats error was attributable to the underestimation of the revenue impact from a statutory change that reduced the holding period for unclaimed property (mainly financial accounts) from five to three years. The IFO had assumed that the policy change Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf 17 baseline estimates (excluding the Liquor Code changes) declined by $23 million and $31 million, respectively, for a two-year reduction of $54 million. Relative to the FY15-16 estimate certified by the governor in December, this estimate is $127 million in personal income tax withholding. Collections for this revenue source underperformed through the first five months of the calendar year, reducing the expected growth rate for the remainder of 2016 and 2017. Highlights of the FY16-17 forecast include: Corporate Net Hits: 2
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf 931 1,937 1,977 7.9 0.3 2.1 Note: Millions of dollars. Motor License Fund COVID-19 reduces FY 19-20 revenues by ~$105 million  Full-month closure reduces gasoline consumption by ~40%  Diesel largely unaffected Licenses and fees largely unaffected  Expiration dates for March, April and Hits: 2
RB_2024_06_Revenues_Spending.pdf 30%. The growth in corporate net income tax (66%) was notable, and would have been higher (80%) without the rate reduction from 9.99% to 8.99% (2023) and 8.49% (2024). Inheritance tax revenue growth (56%) was also strong due inflation of 3.0%, a revenue contraction in real terms. That outcome is attributable to the on-going corporate rate reduction, a partial reversion from unusually high Treasury collections ($780 to $600 million), normal contraction in cigarette tax collections and a Hits: 2
RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdf replacement of older and higher-paid workers that retire with new hires that have lower salaries. The turnover factor typically reduces the impact of the CBA salary adjustments by roughly 2% per annum. Base Employees Salary 23-24 24-25 25- a fixed amount per pay period, while the employee pays a fixed percentage of biweekly gross base salary. Employees can reduce their contributions by 50% for voluntary participation in the Commonwealth’s Get Healthy wellness program. Staff Acknowledgments This report was Hits: 2
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf estimate the 2021 property tax burden by county. For all counties, the property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which reduced school district property taxes by $535 million in FY 2021-22. The table on page 2 lists each county’s In CY 2021, the program provided $208.1 million in property tax relief to homeowners statewide. Including these relief amounts reduces the overall tax burden by 0.01 percentage points. 3 The computed property tax burden fell across the state compared Hits: 2
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf 24. FY 23-24 FY 24-25 Cumulative Number Disenrolled 466 466 Newly Eligible 280 280 Traditionally Eligible 187 187 Reduced Costs Due to Disenrollment -$288 -$462 Cumulative New CHIP Enrollees 33 33 Increased Costs for New CHIP Enrollees $19 $30 13 billion in state costs. FY 23-24 FY 24-25 Increased Costs Due to Phaseout $1,966 $2,566 Reduced Costs Due to Disenrollments -$288 -$462 Increased Costs for New CHIP Enrollees $19 $30 Net State Cost Increase $1,697 Hits: 2
RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf per person, compared to $120 per person for October 2019. The IFO projects that the end of emergency allotments will reduce the per person monthly benefit by roughly $100, to $175. Annual SNAP benefits are estimated at $5.4 billion for program was devised to provide benefits to children (including children age 0 to 5) who would normally receive free or reduced meals at schools, but due to closures, mitigation efforts or illness, were not able to receive those meals for at Hits: 2
RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdf preliminary). Going forward, each $1 billion decline in the fund balance (at current rates) results in a $50 million revenue reduction while each 1% drop in interest rates (at current balances) results in a $150 million reduction. Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2023 GF Avg. Fed Funds Treasury Effective Fiscal Year Daily Hits: 2
RB-2018-01.pdf are added to the assessment rolls or current properties are reassessed based on improvements, and it decreases when assessment appeals reduce the assessed value. The forecast projects that the net tax base expansion will be one percent annually through FY 2022- for the current Ðiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes collected from homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property taxes levied in a prior Ðiscal year. 2 Hits: 2
RB-2015-02-annual_vs_lifetime_ETR.pdf in cents per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of gas extracted. Special Provisions – State severance taxes often contain special provisions that reduce the tax paid in various circumstances. Examples of special provisions include:  Reduced tax rates. Some states levy a lower tax rate for the first two to four years that a well is Hits: 2
QRE_FY14-15.pdf 14, the department was appropriated $10 million and $15 million, respectively. Receipts attributed to increased tax enforcement and reductions in erroneous refunds are deposited into the account. Effective Date July 10, 2014 Fiscal Analysis The Department of Revenue indicates that the fines take effect on January 10, 2015. Fiscal Analysis The FY 2014-15 Executive Budget estimated that the reduction in the holding period will increase miscellaneous non-tax collections (escheats) by $150 million in FY 2014-15. Author: Karen Maynard Company Hits: 2
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). For all counties, the property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which reduced school district property taxes by $535 million in FY 2020-21. The table on page 2 lists each county’s 2020, the program provided $129.4 million in property tax relief to homeowners statewide. Including these relief amounts would modestly reduce the overall tax burden. 3 The computed property tax burden fell across the state compared to 2019 because income growth Hits: 2
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf and Pittsburgh. GDP is nominal state Gross Domestic Product. SUT includes various base expansion provisions such as digital downloads and reduced vendor discount, and is prior to any transfers. Values for FY 2018-19 are projections by the IFO. Act 1 and Use Avg = 2.5% Notes: Sales and use tax includes various base expansion provisions such as digital downloads and reduced vendor discount, and is prior to any transfers. Values for FY 2018-19 are projections by the IFO. Author: Jesse Hits: 2
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf Analysis. 24 . Sept . 2013 5 Headwinds - Federal Policy Expiration of Payroll Tax Cut and the Sequester. o $5.3 billion reduction in 2013 PA Disposable Income. o Spending Sequester - $85 billion for FFY 2013 (US total). Debt Ceiling debate – possibility of o Hold down long-term interest rates such as mortgages. o Really: induce some inflation. Fed likely to “taper” or reduce purchases during next few months. o Long term: big issue is how the Fed will manage the sale of the Hits: 2
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center. half the rate of increase 4 Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964. • Retirements reduce the potential labor force. • Oldest reach typical retirement age (65) in 2011. • Many now continue to work past age 65 21 3.Dec.2014 FY 14-15 Non-Recurring Revenues Description Amount Transfers from special funds ($95 at risk) $322 Reduce holding period for unclaimed property (escheats) 150 Inheritance tax payment 100 Total 572 22 Note: millions of dollars. 3.Dec Hits: 2
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf Philadelphia Tax Relief 1 0 -452 -452 -452 -452 Renter Relief 2 0 -369 -383 -396 -388 CNIT – Tax Rate Reduction 3 -280 -965 -1,144 -1,261 -1,324 CNIT – Combined Reporting 0 366 276 261 273 Total Tax Relief to a $500 rent rebate for qualified households with income below $50,000. 3 CNIT denotes corporate net income tax. Reduces the tax rate from 9.99% to 4.99% over several years. 22.Jun.2015 7 Executive Budget: Tax Relief Hits: 2
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf IFO based on data from Conduent. March 8, 2018 Risk Mitigation Under Act 5  Risk mitigation refers to the reduced sensitivity of employer contributions to a reduction in the investment rate of return.  Under defined benefit pension funding, employer rates increase when investment earnings are lower Hits: 2
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf 2008‐2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets. • Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years. • Spending reductions/restraint for many program areas. • Recession hit pension funds, contributing to funding issues.  Recent budgets have utilized a succession Highlights of January Report 8.Jun.2016 7  Impact of changes on FY 2016‐17 is unclear. • Sustainability of reductions to Medical Assistance. • Commitment of additional resources from PHEAA to maintain grants. Changes Since January Report FY 2015‐16 Appropriation Hits: 2
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf residents 12.May.2016 6 The Next Decade: 2015 to 2025  Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964. • Retirements greatly reduce the potential labor force. • Reliance on savings, investment and gov’t transfer income. • Will savings be sufficient to support longer and Age Cohort 17 12.May.2016 Large Job Shift to Service Sector Since Recession. • Healthcare, Professional and Food‐Accommodation. • Reduction in Manufacturing, Government and Construction. For PA, Healthcare & Social Assistance Sector is Vital. • ~19% of private sector jobs. • ~11% of Hits: 2
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figures for 2018 based on preliminary data through December. Factors That Could Impact Growth Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal shut down (?)  Federal tax cut / refunds  Consumer sentiment  Stock market volatility Maintain Large stock of overpayment credits (speculative).  S&P 500 Index drops -14.4% from September high to year end. Reduce Mar-Apr final payments by $50 million.  10.5% growth revised down to 5.1%. Some downside risk. January Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf 8 FY 2017-18 Revenue Forecast June.12.2018 9 Corporate Income: multiple revenue impacts.  TCJA of 2017: rate reduction and base broadening.  Elimination of $5 million NOL cap.  Tax Bulletin 2017-02 eliminates certain deductions. Personal Income cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds. The computation assumes that one-third of the tax cut in the first Hits: 2
perez ppt.pdf pre-recession levels – Officials are concerned about the strength of economic growth – Questions remain about the impact of federal deficit reduction on state budgets – The total state budget gap: $527.7 billion (FY 2008- FY 2013 est.) FY 2012 Tax Collections fall 2011. 0 5 10 15 20 25 Budget Medicaid Pensions/State Employees Education Taxes/Revenues Transportation/Infrastructure Federal Deficit Reduction 22 19 14 14 7 7 6 States/Jurisdictions $40.3 $145.9 $83.9 $91.0 $77.0 $28 Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_11_2023.pdf 1332 Waiver Program is projected to save consumers $260 million ▪ In first two years (2021 and 2022), program projected to reduce rates by approximately $20/month for 400,000+ covered individuals ▪ 80% of funds are provided by the federal government PID Commonwealth increased by 1.2%, but domestic companies decreased by 9.5% ▪ PID is lead state agency for 121 companies | reduction of 12 (-8%) January 11, 2023 5 Executive Offices (EO) Includes: Office of Administration (OA), Office of the Budget (OB Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf savings Forensics Services case backlogs decline significantly from 2016 to 2020 ▪ 16 staff were added in order to resolve backlogs | Reduced by 3,179 cases since 2016 (-36.5%) ▪ Sexual assault case backlog reduced by 401 cases (-58.0%) | Turnaround time down 95 days (-45.2%) April 28, 2021 4 PSP Metric Highlights (cont Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf Tax Credit Reviews for Year 3 Theme: improving the lives of PA residents ▪ NAP – incentivizes investment in distressed communities ▪ REAP – reduces water pollution from agricultural operations ▪ EEEP – increases economic activity in the live entertainment sector ▪ VGP – encourages expansion of the video regulation are effective ▪ 55% credits sold | farmers lack necessary tax liability ▪ Credits awarded for previously completed projects are ineffective Pollution reduction difficult to measure ▪ Other factors (e.g., soil composition and location) impact effectiveness ▪ No cost-effective way to measure pollution Hits: 2
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf 18. This represents an increase of 64 vacant positions over the five-year period. Higher lifeguard vacancies cause closures and reduced hours at swimming pools at state parks, which generate fee revenue. The vacancy rate for wage park rangers, which largely 1) provide new infrastructure for public use in state parks and forests as well as rehabilitate existing infrastructure and (2) reduce carbon emissions and create energy savings within the DCNR system. 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20- Hits: 2
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf development strategy in coordination with local govern- ments, school districts, non-profits, land banks and development authorities to reduce urban blight. Resources 14-15 Actual 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Budget Expenditures process works to create a more efficient and effective process for all parties involved, which leads to a reduction in the number of appeals filed with the OOR.  Promote communication between parties in an effort to resolve the appeal through Hits: 2
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf 7 Overview of Agency Activities Criminal Justice (DOC and PBPP)  13 activities focusing on inmate management, institutional operations, recidivism reduction, community corrections, parole supervision and victim services. JCJC  2 activities focusing on juvenile justice system support and the Juvenile 8 Background  Pennsylvania’s state incarceration rate increased between 2006 and 2016, even though the crime rate decreased. Significant reductions in inmate population in each of the last five years.  One of the highest community supervision rates in the Hits: 2
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdf base is then converted to a cash estimate by adjusting to the current cigarette tax rate. The estimate is then reduced to account for the impact of the applicable annual transfers. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Revenue $1 Transfers/Exemptions None. Methodology The malt beverage tax forecast assumes flat revenue collections. Beginning in FY 2017-18, revenues are reduced by $2 million for the reinstated Brewers’ Tax Credit. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Revenue $24 $24 Hits: 2
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf base is then converted to a cash estimate by adjusting to the current cigarette tax rate. The estimate is then reduced to account for the impact of the applicable annual transfers. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Revenue $1 Transfers/Exemptions None. Methodology The malt beverage tax forecast assumes flat revenue collections. Beginning in FY 2017-18, revenues are reduced by $2 million for the reinstated Brewers’ Tax Credit. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Revenue $24 $24 Hits: 2
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf base is then converted to a cash estimate by adjusting to the current cigarette tax rate. The estimate is then reduced to account for the impact of the applicable annual transfers. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Revenue $927 Transfers/Exemptions None. Methodology The malt beverage tax forecast assumes flat revenue collections. Beginning in FY 2017-18, revenues are reduced by $2 million for the reinstated Brewer’s Tax Credit. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Revenue $24 Hits: 2
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf 931 2,022 1,863 7.9 4.7 -7.9 Note: Millions of dollars. Motor License Fund COVID-19 reduces FY 19-20 revenues by ~$105 million  Full-month closure reduces gasoline consumption by ~40%  Diesel more moderately affected Licenses and fees largely unaffected  Expiration dates for March, April Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_September.pdf Markit, personal disposable income increased for the first two quarters of 2019. Moderate income gains and falling mortgage rates have reduced financial pressure on recent homebuyers. Health Issues and Incarceration are Common Factors for Nonworkers A recent study by the U retail jobs num- bers released on September 20 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reflect retailers’ decisions to reduce their physical presence or cease operations due to changing consumer behavior. Through August, seasonally adjust- ed numbers for Pennsylvania show Hits: 2
MTR-2019-07.pdf a much smaller base. SUT collections were $925.4 million for the month, an $86.0 million (-8.5 percent) reduction from the prior year. The decline was due to a one-time transfer of $115.3 million from non-motor cigarette tax (-$14.5 million, -22.2 percent) and realty transfer tax (-$11.6 million, -35.6 percent) revenues. The reduction in realty transfer tax was caused by a $15.0 million increase in the annual transfer to the Pennsylvania Housing Hits: 2
MTR-2017-12.pdf reflect a shifting of income out of tax year 2017 into tax year 2018 due to the significant federal rate reduction. Firms may have also accelerated deductions in the opposite direction to reduce 2017 tax liability. The IFO projects a similar impact on the final payments that will be remitted in April and Hits: 2
MRU-2022-07.pdf 3.1%) from the same month in the prior year. Growth (adjusted) in PIT and SUT was offset by a reduction in corporate net income tax (CNIT) revenues. Personal income tax (PIT) revenues for the month were $972.9 million, an 1 million) and gaming (-$4.6 million) tax collections. An increase in insurance premiums (+$4.8 million) partially offset these reductions. July non-tax revenues were $42.5 million, a $14.1 million (49.7%) increase from the prior year due Hits: 2
MRU-2020-3.pdf estimates that the virus contributed roughly $200 million to the monthly shortfall: (1) $50 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $90 million in processing delays (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year) and (3) $60 million all of the shortfall attributable to the virus. The IFO estimates that roughly $30 million is permanently lost due to reduced economic activity (withholding and quarterly payments), $30 million is tied to processing delays that will reverse this fiscal year and Hits: 2
MRU-2020-06.pdf 24 billion (-9.1 percent) below estimate. The shortfall roughly consists of: (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due tax collections were below estimate by $26.2 million and $16.8 million, respectively. The RTT shortfall is attributed to reduced economic activity and the INH shortfall is the result of delayed payment due dates related to the closure of county Hits: 2
MRU-2020-05.pdf 19 virus. The shortfall is entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $430 million in lost revenue from reduced economic activity, (2) $15 million in processing delays or delayed due dates (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year INH) tax collections were below estimate (-$19.1 million and -$34.2 million, respectively). The RTT shortfall is related to reduced economic activity and the INH shortfall is attributed to the closure of county courthouses. The INH shortfall is expected to Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf 19 pandemic. Researchers estimate that revenue losses range from $833 million to $3.4 billion, or a 4% to 16% reduction in total municipal revenues in FY 2019-20 across a low, medium, and high impact scenario. The medium impact scenario not have sufficient revenues to continue operations. For FY 2019-20, the primary driver of this outcome is the projected reduction in earned income tax revenues, with an estimated shortfall of $526 million. Other revenue sources including amusement tax (-25%), parking Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf trips on the Turnpike declined 30.0% (40.8 million vehicle entries) from 2019, comprising 98% of the annual traffic reduction. Commercial vehicle trips fell 3.5% (844,000 vehicle entries) from the prior year. Traffic counts in April showed the 0%) and food away from home (+5.4%, includes food delivery). In contrast, other types of goods experienced significant price reductions including: car insurance (-10.8%), education and communication commodities (e.g., college textbooks, telephone hardware and other IT commodities, -6 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf workers were laid off and businesses invested in computer equipment, software and automation technology. These investments, in combination with the reduction in lower wage jobs (which are disproportionately located in low productivity growth sectors) likely drove productivity gains in 2020. Strong in worker productivity and growth in the number of workers. While an aging population, contracting labor force and declining LFPRs reduce the long-term state economic outlook, productivity gains through business investment could more than offset those factors. For the Pennsylvania Hits: 2
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf to higher consumer spending on goods and services, netting an additional $60 million in sales tax collections.” Knittel cautioned that reductions in the estimates for other revenue sources offset some of the gains from the improved economic outlook. The table below Personal Income -55 Concerns about wage growth and strength of annual payment. Bank Shares -15 Overpayments from prior year will reduce cash remittances. Other -40 Mainly from cigarette and capital stock and franchise taxes. ------ Subtotal – Decreases -270 ==== Net Revision 250 Revised Hits: 2
MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf no change in wages or benefits paid to current employees, but incorporates a turnover factor. This factor adjusts for the reduction in wages paid due to workforce turnover, as more experienced, higher-paid workers separate from service, and are replaced by paid workers. All else equal (i.e., the total number of employees and wage rates do not change), this churning reduces total wages paid in the baseline scenario. These savings are entirely separate from the application of the salary increases and Hits: 2
MER-2014-09.pdf Pennsylvania has contracted by roughly 12,000, or ‐1.2 percent per annum. (See table below.) Nearly all of the reduction occurred in the Postal Ser‐ vice, which contracted by 11,900 payroll jobs (‐3.5 percent per annum). The employment during the past decade. By contrast, payroll jobs with the Department of Defense have recently contracted in 2011. However, the reduction was enough to eliminate all job gains from prior years. The all other category in the table below includes many Hits: 2
MER-2013-12.pdf 0.1 percent in 2012 Q4. (See table below.) Much of the weak growth in 2012 Q4 was due to reductions in government purchases (-1.3 percent) and business investment (-0.4 percent). Consumer purchases (1.1 percent) were also tepid percent). The impact of the sequester appears to be mostly absorbed as federal govern- ment purchases caused only a minor reduction in real GDP growth (–0.1 percent) for the last two quarters. State and local government purchases are also recovering Hits: 2
Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf depreciation deductions. The benefit from the immediate deferral of tax on the capital gain exceeds the present value of the reduction in future depreciation deductions. In this manner, the deferral is a timing issue, but as noted, some firms may perpetually at purchase, or $30,000. As in the previous example, the capital gain deferred ($10,000) is equal to the reduction in future depreciation deductions that may be claimed on the new vehicle compared to the alternative scenario where the firm Hits: 2
Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf This comparison uses non-seasonally adjusted data and assumes a no -pandemic scenario for CY 2020. It reflects seasonal hiring/reductions that would occur in a normal year. Payroll jobs exclude self-employed and independent contractors.) The month-to-month change or full-time jobs were added in June. However, non-seasonally adjusted payroll jobs typically decline in June due to reductions in the education (colleges and universities) and government (local school districts) sectors. The bottom portion of the table displays data Hits: 2
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf million yields total in-state spending of $4.7 million. This reflects the noted indirect and induced effects and is reduced for leakage from the state economy as direct spending related to the event is re-spent by recipients. 4 • Employee 49,000 in local hotel room tax. 5 As noted, this estimate is a gross figure and it is not reduced by a crowding out effect, or visitors who may have stayed at a hotel but did not due to the Hits: 2
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf their fees decline. Net impact: +$13.0 million.  Exempt Status and Other. This includes (1) the net effect of reduced collections from newly-exempt wells and new collections from previously exempt wells based on production level, (2) reduced collections from wells for which exempt status was asserted based on pending litigation regarding stripper well status and (3) other Hits: 2
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf generation, especially for natural gas and coal. The model reference case assumed flat total generation for 2022 with a material reduction for natural gas. • For 2022, the difference between assumed and actual generation from natural gas could be ~16%. Third, natural states recorded similar emission contractions. The exception is Virginia which recorded a substantial increase in generation and therefore a smaller reduction in emissions. Net Generation (million MWh) CO2 Emissions (million tons) 2008 2020 Change 2008 2020 Change 10-State RGGI 386 Hits: 2
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf offset through net operating loss deductions from 40% to 80% over four years. The IFO estimates that the bill would reduce revenues by $115 million (first full fiscal year), peak at $250 million after two to three years, and then decline the impact of the proposal, then the IFO may use the impact from a general corporate net income tax rate reduction to inform the potential size of the dynamic impact. If you have further questions regarding this letter, please do not Hits: 2
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf one of 16 “leading” states (Pew, Aug 2019) Since 2008, states make fundamental changes to business taxes  15 states reduce corporate net income rate (3 increase)  7 states have enacted mandatory combined reporting  19 reduce personal income tax rate on pass-throughs (9 increase) Intense competition for increasingly mobile businesses  Tax rates, exemptions, tax Hits: 2
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf the activity of the combined group within that jurisdiction. Those who support combined reporting note that:  the filing method reduces a firm’s ability to shift profits to low or no tax states through related-party transactions and is subject percent).  Fourteen states use a graduated rate structure, while 30 levy a flat rate. Since 2008, 17 states have reduced their top corporate tax rate.  As of 2020, 27 states and the District of Columbia require combined reporting for Hits: 2
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf both sports wagering and iGaming. These gains are temporary.  A significant decline in the stock market for 2018 Q4 reduced personal income tax estimated payments. The IFO also speculates that taxpayers likely had a large stock of overpayment credits from provisions are phased out or begin to reverse themselves (e.g., bonus depreciation). Although a substantial tax cut remains, the reduction in absolute size will have negative implications for growth. The main point of strength for the state economy is the Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf 7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.8% 3.2% 3.3% Note: Millions of dollars. Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction November 15, 2023 9 Fiscal Year 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 2,159 -3,218 -3,503 -3,979 -4,216 Adjustment for Lapses 205 205 200 200 200 200 200 Reduced Spending (Fall Update) 450 450 0 0 0 0 0 Prelim Ending Balance -1,048 -624 -1,959 -3,018 Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf boosts stock and home values | capital gains surge in 2021 (+85%) ▪ Business profits far above historical levels ▪ CNIT rate cut reduces revenues by $1.4 billion in FY 27-28 Expenditures ▪ FY 22-23 funding increases assumed permanent ▪ Federal COVID relief 50,099 -51,467 Current Year Balance 7,367 -300 -1,672 -2,431 -3,155 -3,135 -3,261 Reduced Spending 0 1,302 0 0 0 0 0 Plus Prior Year Lapses -1,830 140 140 140 140 140 Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf COVID-19 Enhanced FMAP $1,190 assumed through Q2, extended to Q3 JUA transfer $200 court challenge, assume supplemental REHP reduction ~$90 contributions for retiree healthcare FY 22-23 Amount Notes Remaining ARPA transfer $2,410 covers annual budget deficit Note 45,135 -46,534 Current Year Balance 2,402 4,259 255 -1,991 -2,083 -1,923 -1,828 Reduced Spending 0 763 0 0 0 0 0 Plus Prior Year Lapses -2,402 110 110 110 110 110 110 Hits: 2
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf used borrowers’ zip codes to group balances into equal-population quartiles. The analysis found that all income groups recorded significant reductions in average credit card balances during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, but balances for all groups have been group), and the highest average balance since the fourth quarter of 2008. This increase came after the youngest age group reduced average credit card balances by the largest margin between 2019Q4 and 2021Q2. 2019Q4 to 2021Q2 to Income Group 2019Q4 2021Q2 Hits: 2
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). For all counties, the property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which reduced school district property taxes by $534 million in FY 2019-20. The table on page 2 lists each county’s 2019, the program provided $131.3 million in property tax relief to homeowners statewide. Including these relief amounts would modestly reduce county-level tax burdens. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page Hits: 2
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf Dear Representative Grove: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide updated estimates for the reduction in school property taxes due to the implementation of Act 25 of 2011. The request also included an estimate of fiscal year (FY) 2012- 13 to FY 2020-21. Act 25 of 2011, which took effect in FY 2012-13, reduced the number of exceptions a school district could invoke to increase millage rates above their Act 1 index. 1 After Hits: 2
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf year increase in wells spud. 3 Estimated impact: +$98.0 million. • New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) reduced collections from aging wells that pay lower fees and wells that become exempt offsetting fees from new wells and (2 which outpaced the decline in impact fee collections (-27.0%). The drop in market value was due to the strong reduction in average regional gas prices (-54.3%) caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and related mitigation efforts. For CY 2021 Hits: 2
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf compared to CY 2019 levels. Estimated impact: -$52.1 million.  New and Existing Wells. The net impact of (1) reduced collections from aging wells that pay lower fees and wells that become exempt offsetting fees from new wells and (2 3.3 percent, the first annual increase in the ETR since CY 2015. This outcome is due to a significant reduction in the market value of natural gas more than offsetting the decrease in estimated impact fee collections. Market value is Hits: 2
Pensions will contribute at the rate in effect when they are hired. The additional shared risk contributions will be used to reduce the unfunded accrued liabilities of the Systems. If the System is fully funded at the time of the comparison, then Retirement Code to affect multiplier/accrual rate increases for members of PSERS and SERS, including members of the General Assembly; reducing vesting to 5-years for all members; changing the amortization period from 20 years to 10 years amortization; changing the Hits: 2
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf tools to achieve state priorities 3 The Promise of Health Reform 4 Triple Aim • Better patient care • Improved population health • Reduced costs 5 A Shift in Conventional Wisdom Access Cost Quality 1990 Cost Quality 2012 Access 6 State Implementation of Health Hits: 1
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf of indirect jobs located in the state that may result from the PRM Tax Credit. These supply chain relationships also reduce the cost of transportation and business inputs, increase effi- ciencies and may encourage other firms that provide indirect support to Hits: 1
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf funding and recommended a re- duction in the number of years the credit could be claimed, as well as a reduction in the value of the income tax credit. It also noted that this program could be terminated or even consolidated Hits: 1
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf rate in the U.S. (9.99 percent), but the heavily weighted sales factor in the apportionment formula reduces the relative tax burden. Moreover, states such as Texas, Ohio and Delaware levy significant fees on corporations that are not based on Hits: 1
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf 928 2,043 1,710 Difference 930 1,384 -417 -384 -1,050 -1,050 Substance Abuse Education and Demand Reduction Fund Receipts 3,567 3,544 3,473 3,517 3,698 3,368 Disbursements 4,858 5,376 3 Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf 906 -48,037 ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Current Year Balance 2,402 6,554 2,951 -1,042 -4,819 -8,403 -12,163 Reduced Spending 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Adjustment for Lapses 2 -2,402 264 0 0 0 0 0 Hits: 1
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf for the current fiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes paid by homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. 2 Hits: 1
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf for the current fiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes paid by homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. School Hits: 1
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf 50,099 -51,467 Current Year Balance 7,367 -300 -1,672 -2,431 -3,155 -3,135 -3,261 Reduced Spending 0 1,302 0 0 0 0 0 Plus Prior Year Lapses -1,830 140 140 140 140 140 Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf IHS Markit domestic corporate profits forecast -8% ▪ Cost pressures, switch to low-margin goods, excess inventories ▪ Concern: Target and Walmart reduce projection of 2022 profit margins May 23, 2022 17 Corporate Profits Also Surge May 23, 2022 18 Cumulative Growth Rates Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdf estimate was -$1,304 million, or -3.8% of final General Fund revenues. 1 The entire shortfall was attributable to reduced economic activity due to business closures and other mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. With the exception of Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf FY 2015-16 anticipate continued economic growth, but the absence of the one-time revenues received in the prior year reduces the overall rate of growth for the General Fund.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf by $3 million and $92 million, respectively. The two-year total is $95 million less than the earlier projections. The reductions are largely the result of updated economic assumptions, a lower estimate for small games of chance tax revenues and new Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf consumer behavior (TCJA) Other factors break positive to boost revenues  Federal Reserve does not increase rates (talk of rate reduction)  Temporary gas price dip, large volume of stock buybacks  Wayfair court decision  Low medical care inflation PA Hits: 1
REU-2020-02.pdf million (0.6 percent). The surplus is caused by the combination of higher than anticipated annual and withholding payments and reduced by lower than expected quarterly payments. Non-tax revenues were $6.2 million below estimate (-54.8 percent) for February Hits: 1
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf remain in place, and those amounts are excluded from the calculations. Specifically, there are $534.2 million in property tax reduction allocations for FY 2019-20 and $150.7 million in property tax rebates for homeowners were disbursed via the Property Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf income was adjusted to be consistent with the PTRR Social Security income adjustment. Social Security income for all households was reduced by 50 percent to establish newly eligible households. 3 Source: the 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Public Use Microdata Hits: 1
RB_2024_05_ACP.pdf for Needy Families (TANF), or Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations; ▪ Is approved to receive benefits under the free and reduced-price school lunch program or the school breakfast program, including through the USDA Community Eligibility Provision; ▪ Received a federal Pell Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf will impact the sector, and whether firms can maintain the above-average wage increases paid to employees. In order to reduce the burden of child care costs, Act 34 of 2023 expanded the Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Credit from 30% Hits: 1
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdf that a higher wage will provide an income boost to low-paid workers, opponents assert that higher business costs will reduce employment, especially for younger workers or those attempting to enter the labor market. To examine how a higher minimum wage Hits: 1
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdf the number of births (294,980). International migration added 37,560 residents over the two years while net domestic migration reduced state residents by 16,220 (i.e., migration outflows to other states exceeded inflows). The final two columns list the Hits: 1
RB_2023_06_Jackpot_Lottery.pdf in FY 2017-18 (+41.8%) and FY 2018-19 (+71.4%) due to October 2017 rule changes that (1) reduced the odds of winning a jackpot (allowed more jackpot rolls), (2) raised the ticket price from $1 to $2 and Hits: 1
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdf highest in relative terms (-0.85% of state population). ▪ New York had the largest relative net outflow, as net migration reduced the state population by 1.32% (-261,785). Table 2 displays detail for Pennsylvania only and top and bottom states Hits: 1
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf maintain the higher wages for current staff and to attract new staff. Specifically, child care centers will need to (1) reduce staffing at the administrative, worker or auxiliary level (e.g., clerical and other related staff), (2) raise tuition/fees or Hits: 1
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdf 0.257 0.543 Change -0.028 -0.021 -0.019 -0.006 -0.002 -0.006 -0.015 Worker Reduction (000s) 27 35 30 9 3 9 113 Note: Excludes self employed and workers under age 19. Employment count is Hits: 1
RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdf significant benefits if members work less to move below the threshold. While emergency allotments provide relief, they will also likely reduce the supply of labor, which is reinforced by expansion of the income thresholds. Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives? Independent Hits: 1
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf highest in relative terms (-0.67% of state population). ▪ New York had the largest relative net outflow, as net migration reduced the state population by 1.23% (-248,305). Table 2 shows detail for Pennsylvania only and top and bottom states Hits: 1
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf should not be combined with any figures from preceding tables. Due to strong returns, the advance payments are projected to reduce employer contributions for all employers by $41 million (includes Penn State and PASSHE) from FY 2022-23 to FY 2025- Hits: 1
RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf that some deaths of medically compromised individuals in 2020 were pulled forward one year in time and (2) a general reduction in deaths from flu, pneumonia or other communicable diseases in 2021. Table 2 provides an age breakdown for (1) total Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf computer data center equipment purchases. The first full-year fiscal impact is in FY 2022-23 and is expected to reduce sales tax collections by approximately $40 million annually. • Act 25 of 2021 created the Pennsylvania Housing Tax Credit. Taxpayers that Hits: 1
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf that some deaths of medically compromised individuals in 2020 were pulled forward one year in time and (2) a general reduction in deaths from flu, pneumonia or other communicable diseases in 2021. Table 2 provides an age breakdown for (1) total Hits: 1
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf dividends, interest and rent. Moreover, some of those counties (Armstrong, Bradford, Potter and Susquehanna) recorded strong income growth despite a reduction in overall employment levels. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 Resident Earnings County personal income can be decomposed into three categories Hits: 1
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf over the prior fiscal year. Part of this outcome occurs because the number of projects that are funded annually were reduced beginning in FY 2019-20. Funded projects support economic development and tourism programs in Philadelphia and Allegheny county.  The Hits: 1
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf 15 billion in tax year 2017. 3 The collapse of natural gas prices in 2015 and 2016 motivated the large reduction in estimated royalty payments, although statewide production increased in both years. For 2017, natural gas prices recovered and estimated royalty Hits: 1
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf real income gains at a county-wide level. Eight of those counties were significant natural gas producers, and the material reduction in natural gas royalty payments due to lower prices likely had a significant impact on income growth. For 2015, tax Hits: 1
QRR_2017Q1.pdf Re‐ ceipts Tax revenues for the fiscal year. Preliminary data suggest that this weakness in collections was likely influenced by reduced electricity demand and declining prices, as well as continued erosion of the telecom‐ munications tax base. The table below provides Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q2.pdf delayed issuance of the license and the collection of the $50 million licensing fee. • A statutory change to reduce the holding period for unclaimed property from five years to three years was originally estimated to increase annual revenues by $150 million Hits: 1
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf debt. The remaining property tax is phased down, and then eliminated, as the grandfathered debt is retired. This feature initially reduces the property tax to be replaced, but the replacement amount increases each year as debt is retired and debt service Hits: 1
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf current policies. A new sales and use tax transfer to the Public Transportation Trust Fund beginning in FY 2022- 23 reduces revenue by approximately $500 million annually and contributes to the shortfall in the final two years of the forecast. The Hits: 1
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf most recent forecast constitutes an improvement compared to previous projections. Actual and assumed savings, which are built into the baseline, reduce the potential imbalance by approximately $1 billion annually by the end of the forecast,” Knittel said. The following factors affect Hits: 1
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets.  Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact for several years.  Spending reductions/restraint for many program areas.  Recession hit pension funds, contributing to funding issues. Recent budgets have utilized a succession Hits: 1
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf 6% 5.9% 2.4% 2.2% 5.7% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Withholding amount for FY 15-16 reduced to reflect extra deposit day. Personal Income Tax Revenues May.01.2018 18 May.01.2018 19 Personal Income Tax Hits: 1
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf Maintain / Boost  Strong labor market  Solid income growth  Stable interest rates  Low/stable energy prices Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal policy uncertainty  Federal tax cut / refunds  Consumer sentiment  Stock market volatility Gaming Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf measures 5 October 15, 2018 Initial List of Agency Activities 6  Criminal Justice  14 activities focusing on recidivism reduction, inmate management, community corrections, parole supervision and victim services  PCCD  6 activities focusing on victim services, juvenile justice Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds. The computation assumes that one-third of the tax cut in the first Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds. The computation assumes that one-third of the tax cut in the first Hits: 1
PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf revenues increased by approximately $2.0 billion due to revenue delays resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. FYE 2021 values reduced by same amount. Excludes any funding from non-General Fund sources. Sources: Various reports issued by the Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 1
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf amount and exclude self-employed. All rates or changes are year-over-year except Real GDP. PA Income Support Greatly Reduced in 2020 Q4 November 18, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf DOR implemented Pennsylvania Tax Hub (PATH) ▪ Integrates all taxes in a single tax system ▪ Objectives: Increased system functionality and efficiencies; reduced error rates ▪ Ability to file Property Tax and Rent Rebate (PTRR) claims electronically began for claim year 2020 (estimated 17% Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf goals and outcomes ▪ DCNR – state funding for 3 new state parks in FY 22-23 ▪ PID – 1332 waiver program to reduce consumer healthcare costs ▪ Federal American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act funding for initiatives in DDAP and DCNR PBB reports reflect the Hits: 1
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf Allentown and Bethlehem receive an allocation from the 911 Fund. Consolidation of PSAPs for operational purposes does not reduce the allocation of 911 funds to the original 69 entities. Source: PEMA. "911 Annual Report: Calendar Year 2018." 1 Counties listed in Hits: 1
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf collection and the refinement of quality and fidelity practices. The expected outcome of this activity is an overall reduction in recidivism rates and juvenile crime statewide. Resources 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 Actual Actual Hits: 1
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf and to protect businesses and consumers from unscrupulous or unqualified financial service providers. The expected outcome is a reduction in fraud and other actions that harm consumers and affect their perception of the state’s financial sector. Resources 13-14 14- Hits: 1
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf 14-15 to 18-19  Voter registration 0% to 24% | Corporate registration 10% to 53%  Convenience | enhances participation | reduces data errors | cost savings Online absentee ballot applications begin in 19-20  As of Sept. 2019, voters were able Hits: 1
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf amount and exclude self-employed. All rates or changes are year-over-year except Real GDP. PA Income Support Greatly Reduced in 2020 Q4 December 9, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost Hits: 1
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf March 16, 2023 8 Wage-Price “Persistence” is 5% wage growth consistent with 2% inflation? Something must give productivity gains? reduced profits? -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Aug Oct Dec-19 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec-20 Feb Hits: 1
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf lags ▪ Food prices beginning to rise rapidly | continued supply chain issues ▪ Strong wage gains show up more recently A permanent reduction in payroll jobs ▪ What happens if or when former workers attempt to rejoin labor force? August 25, 2021 7 CreationDate Hits: 1
NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf on natural gas production and drilling. This results in the year-over-year drilling increase for 2021 Q2, despite the reduction from 2021 Q1. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Production 1,767 1,718 1,765 1,827 1,863 Hits: 1
NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf for natural gas will decline for the first time since 2009, largely due to mild weather in early 2020, which reduced demand for heating. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh. Questions regarding this report can Hits: 1
NGIFE-2015.pdf 1) additional collections from more wells becoming subject to the impact fee (new wells less new stripper wells); and (2) reduced fees from existing wells as they age and migrate down the fee schedule. For example, the per‐well impact fee Hits: 1
NFIB_Presentation.pdf IFO recently issued several letters and analyses. ◦ Replacement revenues if SD property tax is eliminated. Future challenges to General Fund. ◦ Reduced support from other funds: Lottery, Tobacco Settlement and Motor License Funds. Dec.13.2017 13 Author: Tessa Dorr Company: Microsoft Hits: 1
Newsstand_March_2020.pdf future months, consumer spending is expected to contract significantly due to retail clo- sures, event and travel cancelations and the reduction or elimination of work hours for some employees. 2019 Employment Data Revised Upward On March 16, the U.S. Bureau Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_May.pdf The data show the contraction was largely attributable to general mer- chandise and clothing stores. May 2019 National News Businesses Reduce Pace of Capital Expenditures in 2019 Q1 Based on financial filings by firms in the S&P 500, a May Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_July.pdf study followed two cohorts and found that debt cancellation for borrowers in default on student loans led to a 25% reduction in total debt from other accounts including credit cards, auto loans and home loans. These borrowers were also more likely Hits: 1
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf and Economic effects of pandemic • Premium pay to essential employees or grants to their employers • Government services affected by revenue reduction resulting in COVID-19 • Investments in water, sewer and broadband ○Ineligible uses: • Towards pensions or to offset revenue resulting in Hits: 1
MTR-2018-05.pdf shortfall is likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the significant federal corporate rate reduction in December 2017. For the fiscal year, CNIT revenues are $167 million below estimate, driven by final payments, which are Hits: 1
MTR-2017-09.pdf a 2.8 percent year-over-year growth rate for the General Fund, after accounting for certain technical factors that reduce revenue. 1 Through September, the actual year-over- year growth rate for the General Fund was 4.8 percent, with Hits: 1
MTR-2017-08.pdf due to reasons other than school, retirement or disability, had taken an opioid the previous day. 4 Opioid abuse also reduces worker productivity and increases the utilization of medical and sick leave. Opioid abuse in Pennsylvania was estimated to trigger at Hits: 1
MTR-2016-11.pdf been declining in Pennsylvania in recent years. Data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 1 show a significant reduction in natural gas drilling jobs through the first quarter of 2016. Conversely, data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Hits: 1
MTR-2016-06.pdf and (3) appreciation of the U.S. dollar, which restrains exports. In June, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund reduced their 2016 outlooks for global and U.S. economic growth. Despite these trends, Pennsylvania’s economy remains relatively healthy; however Hits: 1
MTR-2016-04.pdf These trends are broadly similar to those at the national level. Data from the National Association of Realtors show a reduction in single- family home sales in 2014 (-3.1%) followed by a solid year in 2015 (7.0%). 2 For Hits: 1
MTR-2016-03.pdf the Pennsylvania economy. For 2015, the only sector to contract was the mining sector (-6.7%), largely due to a reduction in employment from a decline in natural gas drilling activity. Healthcare-social services was the largest sector (13.8% of Hits: 1
MTR-2016-02.pdf quarter of 2015 may suggest strong profit gains for Pennsylvania manufacturers (16.4% growth) and retailers (14.5%), but a reduction for wholesalers (-1.1%). National profits for two key Pennsylvania industries declined during the third quarter of 2015. The mining Hits: 1
MTR-2015-10.pdf low gasoline and natural gas prices will also be reflected in COLAs for 2017. The Social Security Administration does not reduce benefit payments when consumer prices fall. However, future COLAs take into account lower consumer prices from the previous year. For Hits: 1
MRU_2021_07.pdf 7%). Sales and use tax (SUT) revenues were $1.24 billion for the month, a $18.5 million (-1.5%) reduction from the prior year. Motor vehicle collections were $29.3 million (-15.3%) lower than July 2020. Non-motor revenues Hits: 1
MRU_2020_11.pdf collections, which were largely offset by lower than expected personal income tax (PIT) withholding collections. Withholding collections in November were reduced by a $200 million transfer to the Property Tax Relief Fund (PTRF) under Act 114 of 2020 (which was not Hits: 1
MRU-2020-07.pdf year. July realty transfer tax (RTT) collections of $17.9 million were $3.2 million below the prior year, a reduction of 14.9 percent after adjustments for year-over-year changes in transfer amounts. The dramatic decline is likely the Hits: 1
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf Tax Relief Fund. This provision is effective July 1, 2020. Prior Law None. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2020-21 PIT withholding revenues by $200 million. Other Miscellaneous Transfer from the Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund The act Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf tax credits (refundable and non-refundable) increased by $2.5 billion. Combined with lower rates and other changes, the TCJA reduced total federal income tax liability (excludes miscellaneous taxes such as SECA) for Pennsylvania residents from $59.5 billion (2017) to Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdf the prior year. The home sales contraction will also reverberate through the state economy in less obvious ways, and generally reduce longer-term growth: ▪ Less labor mobility. Workers may defer relocation and better pay to retain a low-rate mortgage. ▪ First- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf the week ending May 10 are compared to the week ending April 12. For May 10, 64% of businesses reported reductions of more than 5% in orders or sales, relatively unchanged from April 12. However, the number of businesses reporting a Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf Nationwide, homeowners gained nearly $153 billion from cash-out refinancings, a $45 billion increase from 2019. Higher interest rates will reduce refinancing activity because they diminish the number of existing homeowners who might benefit from refinancing. Housing Market Highlights Divergence Between Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf years as the economy reopens and temperatures run above normal. U.S. production growth has also been modest in 2021, reducing a supply glut that restrained prices in prior years. The near-month settlement price of gas on the New York Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf regional and national production growth has outpaced record levels of demand. A mild winter and the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced demand for natural gas in 2020, which is causing prices to decline even further. PA Reports Lower Confidence in Ability Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf data) show that substantial additional savings remain. Analysts expect that demand-driven inflation will continue until these excess savings are reduced further or higher interest rates begin to restrain economic growth. Monthly Economic Update January 2022 -2.0% -1.0% 0 Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf portion of total costs across all sectors, this outcome makes it more likely that a slowdown may be necessary to reduce inflation. Some analysts project a “growth recession,” where the economy does not contract, but expands only at a modest rate Hits: 1
Migration_RB_06_2024.pdf highest in relative terms (-0.79% of state population). ▪ New York had the largest relative net outflow, as net migration reduced the state population by 1.13% (-222,702). Table 2 displays detail for Pennsylvania migration focusing only on the top Hits: 1
MER-2014-12.pdf 1, 2015. Assuming the entire tax is passed forward to consumers, the savings computation in the previous paragraph would be reduced by roughly $100. December 2014 1 http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ 2 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm Hits: 1
MER-2014-06.pdf the recog‐ nition of research and development (R&D) as capi‐ tal expenditures and new source data. Overall, BEA revisions reduced GSP growth for Pennsylvania by 0.5 percentage points in both 2011 and 2012. The Independent Fiscal Of Ðice is Hits: 1
MER-2014-03.pdf and foreclosure. The trend remains positive in Pennsylvania as CoreLogic, a Ðinancial analytics company, reports that rising home values have reduced the share of mortgages underwater from 11.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 7.4 percent in Hits: 1
MER-2014-02.pdf re‐ duced average per capita debt levels by more than $1,000 (‐2.6 percent) through 2013. (See table.) Large reductions in mortgage and credit card debt were partially offset by gains in student loan and auto debt. Some analysts were Hits: 1
MER-2014-01.pdf rate for Pennsylva‐ nia dropped 0.4 points to 6.9% in December. While this number may be revised, the reduction repre‐ sents the largest monthly drop since July 1983 and the lowest unemployment rate since January 2009 (6.8%). Viewing Hits: 1
Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf original report on Medicaid expansion, the Independent Fiscal Office has published a revision. The revised report incorporates (1) a modest reduction in the projected cost savings, (2) an increase in federal funds derived from the gross receipts tax mechanism and (3 Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_Sept_2021.pdf in the final month of extra benefits as the PUA benefits actually increased during the month, more than offsetting the reduction in traditional UC payments. For September (data to be released in October), non-seasonally adjusted payroll jobs typically increase by Hits: 1
jackson ppt.pdf especially professional services, also involved. • Hotels, restaurants, retail, short-term housing also get a boost. • State and local budget crunch (reduced revenues, more need for many services, can’t put it on a credit card) adding to job losses, among other Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT rate reduction not evident in first estimated payment May 24, 2023 1 Critical Forecast Assumptions 1 No recession in 2023 or 2024 Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT rate reduction not evident in first estimated payment May 24, 2023 1 Critical Forecast Assumptions 1 No recession in 2023 or 2024 Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf is based on the Henry Hub. 5 This price declined to $2.63 for CY 2019, causing a fee schedule reduction and a $47.4 million decrease in impact fee revenues. The CY 2020 monthly average price through June is $1 Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf and projected prices, this scenario is more likely to occur. The two scenarios produce significantly different impact fee collections; a reduction in the fee schedule would cause a $46.6 million difference in collections. Projected impact fee collections are also affected Hits: 1
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf that such growth is not likely. Therefore, a revision to the estimate is warranted. The revision to the IFO estimate reduces FY 2013- 14 revenue expectations by $150 million, to $29.005 billion. For comparison, this is about $112 million below Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf In the short term, taxpayers may have a stronger reaction to the tax increase. In addition, the estimates are not reduced for administrative costs, which would likely be significant under this proposal. May 16, 2022 Page 2 School District Cash Balances Hits: 1
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf 45,135 -46,534 Current Year Balance 2,402 4,259 255 -1,991 -2,083 -1,923 -1,828 Reduced Spending 0 763 0 0 0 0 0 Plus Prior Year Lapses -2,402 110 110 110 110 110 110 Hits: 1
House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf revenues increased by approximately $2.0 billion due to revenue delays resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. FYE 2021 values reduced by same amount. Sources: Various reports issued by the Independent Fiscal Office, the State Employees' Retirement System and the Public Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf to fall.  Strong domestic migration out of state (but data very preliminary). Retirement surge has important implications.  “Churning” reduces growth of total wages paid.  Possible contraction of labor force. But participation rates increase. No signs of “brain drain Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf Slow tax base erosion and modest revenue growth.  Non-discretionary spending continues to drive expenditure growth. Recent policy changes reduced the short-term deficit, but the long-term imbalance remains. 11/15/2016 38 Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Lesley Rompalo Hits: 1
Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdf emissions declined by 37.0%. All states except Connecticut, New Jersey, Massachusetts and West Virginia recorded a per-unit emissions reduction of one-third or more. For 2019, the data show that carbon emissions per unit was lowest in northern states Hits: 1
Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdf period, Pennsylvania generation increased by 6.9%, but carbon emissions declined by 37.4%. Among the states shown, the average reduction in emissions per unit from 2007 to 2021 was 32.2%. Pennsylvania’s carbon emissions per unit decreased by 41 Hits: 1
Economic_Summit_Presentation_Sept_2023.pdf denotes preliminary value. Gross Interest includes interest paid to trust funds (e.g., Social Security). Federal Deficit for 21-22 reduced $379 billion for disallowed student loan forgiveness, increased $330 billion in 22-23. Those adjustments reverse the treatment of disallowed Hits: 1
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf Program. For 2017, homeowners age 65 and older received $117 million in rebates. If rebates had been included, it would reduce the statewide tax burden for elderly homeowners from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent. Property Tax by County and Hits: 1
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf In the third quarter of 2013, total per capita debt was down by $1,360 from the previous year. The reduction is due to lower mortgage and credit card balances. PA Student Loan and All-Other Debt Per Capita – Year Over Hits: 1
Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdf The initial decline in the base index is driven by a two- percentage point drop in the SAWW component. The reduction for remaining years is largely due to incremental declines in the ECI component. The weighted index for FY 2024-25 Hits: 1
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf Dec 2025: expiration of many TCJA provisions Federal Reserve Number and timing of rate cuts Ongoing pace of Quantitative Tightening Reduced liquidity from depletion of reserves kept at Federal Reserve Mid-Year Update Slide 17 Follow us on X (@ind_fisc_office) or Hits: 1
2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdf Notes General Fund Revenues $46,020 $679 1.5% Corporate Net Income 5,490 -79 -1.4 on-going rate reduction Sales - Non-Motor 13,191 298 2.3 May payment could impact Sales - Motor Vehicle 1,396 29 2.1 Hits: 1
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf and third years of production. Given the current forecast of natural gas prices from the EIA, some analysts project a reduction in funds attributable to newly spudded wells in 2014 compared to 2013. 1 .EIA, Natural Gas Withdrawals and Production, Pennsylvania Hits: 1
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf that certain brick and mortar store holiday sales were weak. Another factor possibly affecting sales of wholesalers and retailers is reduced demand from businesses. Ac- cording to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the eco- www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Hits: 1
2002_drop_report.pdf not provide for additional benefit accrual after retirement eligibility. Disadvantages. Most DROPs increase employer administrative costs and all delay the reduction of payroll costs associated with replacing retired employees at lower salaries. Incorrectly designed DROPs or those created in the absence Hits: 1
2001_hr266.pdf 11 participants who enter the PSERS and SERS systems, the number 12 who earn a full benefit, who earn a reduced or partial 13 benefit and who receive no benefit. 14 (4) An analysis of the exposure to liability on the Hits: 1
Pensions Signed into law on December 16, 2003, Act 43 amended the County Pension Law (Act 96 of 1971) to: 1) reduce vesting from eight-year cliff vesting to five-year cliff vesting; 2) establish a twelve month period following enactment of Hits: 1