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Economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics

As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products.

Tags: economic, plastics, report

JANUARY 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

01/25/2023

Economic and Budget Outlook Presentation

The IFO presented results from its five-year outlook report published in November 2022.

01/24/2023

Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit report.

01/05/2023

Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit report.

01/05/2023

Manufacturing Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Manufacturing Tax Credit report.

01/05/2023

Pennsylvania Insurance Department

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023.  The report was reposted on January 18, 2023 to correct a single year of data on page 14.  

01/05/2023

Waterfront Development Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Waterfront Development Tax Credit report.

01/05/2023

Unemployment Compensation by AGI

The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds.

12/21/2022

December 2022 Monthly Economic Update

The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

12/20/2022

Natural Gas Production report, 2022Q3

This report for the third quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

12/05/2022

Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test report

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

12/01/2022

November 2022 Monthly Economic Update

The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. 

11/21/2022

Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.

11/15/2022

Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

11/02/2022

2022 Impact Fee Estimate

This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2022 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2023). Collections are estimated to be $274.8 million, an increase of $40.4 million from the prior year.

10/31/2022

Where Did the Workers Go?

This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.  

10/25/2022

October 2022 Monthly Economic Update

The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends.

10/24/2022

REVENUE ESTIMATE PERFORMANCE

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past ten budget cycles.

10/12/2022

2022 Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28.

10/05/2022

SEPTEMBER 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

09/19/2022

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget.

09/01/2022

August 2022 Monthly Economic Update

The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

08/22/2022

Natural Gas Production report, 2022Q2

This report for the second quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

08/18/2022

School District Property Tax Update

The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues  and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index.

08/15/2022

July 2022 Monthly Economic Update

The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

07/25/2022

JUNE 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

06/16/2022

Natural Gas Production report, 2022Q1

This report for the first quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

05/26/2022

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2022-23

The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

05/23/2022

May 2022 Monthly Economic Update

The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

05/19/2022

Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement

The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Monday, May 23rd at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2021-22 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2022-23. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

05/16/2022

Department of Human Services - Part 3

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3).  Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022.   The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10.   

05/04/2022

Department of Education

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education. Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16. The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022. The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022. 

04/27/2022

Department of Aging

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging. Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1. 

04/26/2022

April 2022 Monthly Economic Update

The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

04/12/2022

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2022-23 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

04/08/2022

March 2022 Monthly Economic Update

The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

03/18/2022

Natural Gas Production report, 2021Q4

This report for the fourth quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

02/22/2022

February 2022 Monthly Economic Update

The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

02/09/2022

Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit report.

01/20/2022

Brewers' Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Brewers’ Tax Credit report.

01/20/2022

Educational Tax Credits

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Educational Tax Credits report.

01/20/2022

Department of Agriculture

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture. Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022.   The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21.  

01/20/2022

Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit report.

01/20/2022

STATE AND LOCAL TAX REVENUES: A 50 STATE COMPARISON

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

01/19/2022

2021 Impact Fee Estimate

This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2021 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2022). Collections are estimated to be $233.8 million, an increase of $87.6 million from the prior year.

01/18/2022

January 2022 Monthly Economic News

The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

01/17/2022

December 2021 Economic Update

The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

12/07/2021

Natural Gas Production report, 2021Q3

This report for the third quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

11/22/2021

Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.

11/15/2021

2021 Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27.

11/15/2021

November 2021 Economic Update

The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

11/10/2021

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's updated forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2020-21 to FY 2025-26. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019-20 current-year property tax collections, (2) the impact from FY 2021-22 millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 Index projection.

11/08/2021

Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

11/04/2021

October 2021 Economic Update

The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

10/07/2021

PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ Tax Credit report Presentation

The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based Budget Board.

09/28/2021

Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit report.

09/24/2021

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past nine budget cycles.

09/16/2021

September 2021 Economic Update

The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

09/16/2021

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget.

08/31/2021

Natural Gas Production report, 2021Q2

This report for the second quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

08/24/2021

August 2021 Economic Update

The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

08/12/2021

July 2021 Economic Update

The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

07/14/2021

June 2021 Economic Update

The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

06/17/2021

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

05/26/2021

Natural Gas Production report, 2021Q1

This report for the first quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

05/24/2021

Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement

The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Wednesday, May 26th at 1:00PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2020-21 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2021-22. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

05/19/2021

May 2021 Economic Update

The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

05/18/2021

April 2021 Economic Update

The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

04/28/2021

Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit report. IFO Letter to the SCC

04/23/2021

Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit report.

04/23/2021

Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit report.

04/23/2021

Video Game Production Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Video Game Production Tax Credit report.

04/23/2021

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2021-22 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

04/22/2021

March 2021 Economic Update

The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

03/22/2021

Natural Gas Production report, 2020Q4

This report for the fourth quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

03/02/2021

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.)

02/24/2021

Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020.

02/23/2021

February 2021 Economic Update

The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

02/18/2021

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

01/21/2021

January 2021 Economic Update

The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

01/20/2021

January 2021 Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

01/11/2021

2020 Impact Fee Estimate

This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2020 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2021). Collections are estimated to be $144.9 million, a decrease of $55.9 million from the prior year.

01/05/2021

December 2020 Economic Update

The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

12/16/2020

November 2020 Economic Update

The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

11/25/2020

Natural Gas Production report, 2020Q3

This report for the third quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

11/24/2020

State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

11/24/2020

Revenue and Economic Update FY 2020-21

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its October Revenue and Economic Update. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

10/29/2020

October 2020 Economic Update

The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

10/22/2020

September 2020 Economic Update

The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

09/23/2020

Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook.

09/08/2020

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eight budget cycles.

09/03/2020

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget.

08/27/2020

August 2020 Economic Update

The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

08/25/2020

Natural Gas Production report, 2020Q2

This report for the second quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

08/20/2020

July 2020 Economic Update

The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

07/23/2020

Economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics

As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products.

06/30/2020

Impact Fee Update and 2020 Outlook

This report examines impact fee collections for 2019 and provides an outlook for 2020.

06/25/2020

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Presentation Methodology

06/22/2020

June 2020 Economic Update

The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

06/17/2020

Natural Gas Production report, 2020Q1

This report for the first quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

05/21/2020

May 2020 Economic Update

The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

05/20/2020

IFO Public Briefing: Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.  

05/19/2020

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”

04/23/2020

April 2020 Economic Update

The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

04/22/2020

IFO News Stand - March Edition

The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

03/25/2020

Natural Gas Production report, 2019Q4

This report for the fourth quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

02/26/2020

IFO News Stand - February Edition

The February edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

02/20/2020

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25.

02/06/2020

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

01/29/2020

Testimony on Combined reporting

Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony to the Senate Democratic Policy Committee regarding the potential impact of combined reporting on corporate net income tax revenues.

01/29/2020

Department of Human Services - Part 1

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-Based Budget Board.

01/21/2020

Research and Development Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Research and Development Tax Credit report.

01/21/2020

Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit report.

01/21/2020

Department of State

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State.

01/16/2020

Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit report.

01/16/2020

Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit report.

01/16/2020

IFO News Stand - January Edition

The January edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

01/15/2020

IFO News Stand - December Edition

The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

12/20/2019

Natural Gas Production report, 2019Q3

This report for the third quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

12/03/2019

FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.

11/14/2019

IFO News Stand-October Edition

The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

10/24/2019

IFO NEWS STAND - SEPTEMBER EDITION

The September edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

09/25/2019

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 

08/28/2019

Natural Gas Production report, 2019Q2

This report for the second quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

08/21/2019

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget.

08/08/2019

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past seven budget cycles.

07/26/2019

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/18/2019

Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook

This report examines impact fee collections for 2018 and provides an outlook for 2019.

06/28/2019

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and official estimates for FY 2019-20 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Methodology

06/21/2019

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/20/2019

Natural Gas Production report, 2019Q1

This report for the first quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

05/30/2019

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/22/2019

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/22/2019

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."  

03/22/2019

IFO News Stand - March Edition

The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

03/19/2019

SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.  

03/18/2019

Special Fund Receipts and Disbursements and Ambulatory Surgical Center Assessment

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked for an update to a February 12, 2018 report on the receipts and disbursements of certain special funds and information on how Pennsylvania compares to other states with regard to the use of special funds. Another committee member asked about the proposed ambulatory surgical center assessment for the Department of Human Services (DHS).

03/13/2019

Income and Property Tax Burden for Retirees

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States (December 2018). The letter also compares Pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states.

03/06/2019

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION report, 2018 Q4

This report for the fourth quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

03/05/2019

Film Production Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Film Production Tax Credit report.

01/18/2019

New Jobs Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the New Jobs Tax Credit report.

01/18/2019

Historic Preservation Tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Historic Preservation Tax Credit report.

01/18/2019

IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION

The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

12/11/2018

Natural Gas Production report, 2018 Q3

This report for the third quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

12/04/2018

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) state tax rates and (4) state debt levels.

12/03/2018

IFO News Stand - November Edition

The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

11/20/2018

FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.  

11/15/2018

IFO News Stand - October Edition

The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

10/17/2018

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION report, 2018Q2

This report for the second quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

08/30/2018

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

08/20/2018

MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY REVENUE ESTIMATES

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget.

07/30/2018

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past six budget cycles.

07/25/2018

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/24/2018

Impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook

This report examines 2017 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2018.

06/28/2018

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/19/2018

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION report, 2018Q1

This report for the first quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

05/31/2018

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/16/2018

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/20/2018

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/18/2018

Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction

The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. 

04/11/2018

Natural Gas Production report, 2017Q4

This report for the fourth quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

03/05/2018

Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20.  The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table

02/16/2018

SPECIAL FUND RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS

In response to a legislative request, the IFO compiled certain data presented in the Governor’s Executive Budget for various years to produce a multi-year history of receipts and disbursements for selected special funds. The letter identifies certain special fund budgeting and reporting issues that should be considered when analyzing the data. The letter also provides computations for a potential budget increase factor based on the annual increases in population and the consumer price index. 

02/15/2018

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

02/01/2018

Revenue Estimate Performance

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past five budget cycles.

12/22/2017

Updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget.

12/21/2017

Natural Gas Production report, 2017 Q3

This report for the third quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

12/07/2017

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share

11/16/2017

Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q3

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

11/03/2017

Child Care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania

The report provides an overview of the economic impacts of state spending on subsidized child care and no-cost pre-kindergarten programs in Pennsylvania.

09/06/2017

Natural Gas Production report, 2017 Q2

This report for the second quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

08/29/2017

Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget.

08/10/2017

Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q2

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

08/02/2017

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 

05/31/2017

Natural Gas Production report, 2017 Q1

This report for the first quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

05/22/2017

Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q1

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

05/05/2017

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017)

04/05/2017

Horse Racing Analysis

Act 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to JSGC (March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017)

03/13/2017

Natural Gas Production report, 2016 Quarter 4

This report for the fourth quarter of 2016 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

03/02/2017

Department of Corrections Performance Measures

At the request of the General Assembly, the IFO has published a performance measurement report for the Department of Corrections (DOC) in advance of the agency’s budget hearings. The report includes agency cost-drivers, performance metrics and multi-state comparisons. The DOC report arises from the IFO’s 2016 report, “Using Performance Measures in the State Budget,” in which the office outlined options for performance measurement and provided a prototype report that could be integrated into the state budget process and utilized during annual budget hearings.

02/27/2017

Budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees

The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21.  The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas.    Download a version for optimized web viewing

02/16/2017

Quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q4

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.

01/24/2017

Updated School District Property Tax Forecast

Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast.

01/09/2017

Natural Gas Production report, 2016 Quarter 3

This report for the third quarter of 2016 and the calendar year-to-date uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

11/30/2016

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk

11/15/2016

Quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q3

The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.  Fiscal Year 2016-17 2016 Q3 (July to September 2016)

10/27/2016

Using Performance Measures in the State Budget

Discusses performance-based budgeting and how it could be integrated into Pennsylvania's budget process. Highlights how other states are effectively using performance measures in their budget systems. Includes a prototype report which could be used in agency budget hearings and provides a method for quick integration.

09/19/2016

Natural Gas Production report, 2016 Quarter 2

This report for the second quarter of 2016 and the calendar year-to-date uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

08/26/2016

Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget. 

08/24/2016

Natural Gas Production report, 2016 Quarter 1

This report for the first quarter of 2016 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

05/26/2016

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/21/2016

Economic Development Incentives

This research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives. The report displays this information for the two most recently completed fiscal years (FY): 2013-14 and 2014-15.  

03/25/2016

Natural Gas Production report, 2015 July to December

This report for the second half of 2015 and the calendar year-to-date uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

02/29/2016

Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (Updated January 2016) Presentation

01/27/2016

Shared-Risk Pension Analysis

This letter provides a statutorily required report analyzing the implementation of the shared-risk pension provisions introduced by Act 120 of 2010.

12/18/2015

Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

Glossary of technical terms to supplement the Natural Gas Production report for the first half of 2015.

09/15/2015

Natural Gas Production report, 2015 January to June

This report for the first half of 2015 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

09/15/2015

Impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook

This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

06/25/2015

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

The report examines how Pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to make comparisons.

03/30/2015

Fiscal Implications of a York County School District Consolidation

The report provides potential consolidation savings and costs for 15 York County school districts and computes the real estate tax millage using various earned income tax rates and administrative savings scenarios. Full report Presentation

12/12/2014

Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison

This report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections)

03/17/2014

Pennsylvania Lottery: Historical Data and Interstate Comparisons

Demographic projections suggest that demand for programs and services funded by lottery revenues will grow at a rate that exceeds the expansion of the Pennsylvania economy. Therefore, an important issue for policymakers is whether lottery revenues can maintain recent growth rates so they will be sufficient to meet those demands. This report provides data to assist policymakers in those deliberations.

01/30/2014

Analysis of Proposal to Replace School Property Taxes: House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76

This report presents the results from an analysis of House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76 performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The proposed legislation eliminates local school district property taxes and replaces those funds with sales and use and personal income taxes, as well as monies redirected from the Property Tax Relief Fund. Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee on 10/15/2013. Data for the graphs in section 4 of the report that display the annual and cumulative changes in personal income, sales and school property tax collections. Introduction, which contains summary results from the report.

10/01/2013

Analysis of Michigan Property Tax Reform

This report presents the results from an analysis of the Michigan property tax reform known as Proposal A. Enacted in 1994, Proposal A replaced all local property taxes used for school operating purposes with higher sales and use, realty transfer and tobacco taxes. It also created a distinction between homestead and nonhomestead property to facilitate the statewide levy of uniform property taxes on those classes of property. The report makes extensive use of data published by various Michigan executive and legislative agencies to illustrate the impact of property tax reform on tax revenues, millage rates, per pupil funding levels and the property tax base over the past two decades.

09/16/2013

Uncapping the Film Production Tax Credit: A Fiscal and Economic Analysis

This report presents the results of an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on the fiscal and economic impacts of eliminating the cap on Pennsylvania’s film production tax credit (FPTC). The report also considers stand-alone tax credits for post-production and digital interactive media services.

05/31/2013

Corporate Tax Base Erosion: Analysis of Policy Options

Analysis of the policies that states have used to preserve or expand the corporate tax base. The report focuses on two particular base retention or expansion policies: combined reporting and expense addbacks.

03/04/2013

Independent Fiscal Office

month, roughly $94 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in January will be shifted to February. ... (Full Report) Mid-Year Update FY 2022-23 Revenue Estimates January 31, 2023 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. ... (Full Report) SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February Economics and Other January 27, 2023 The IFO posted a research brief that is

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 22, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released in February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The

Hits: 146

Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 23, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released in February 2020. The Independent

Hits: 124

PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

purposes of Act 48 of 2017, the Department of Human Services will be reviewed over a three-year period. This report contains the second part of the review for the department. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

Hits: 117

2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

A Report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Concerning Restrictive Investment Mandates and their Potential Impact upon the Public E C I A L R E P O R T: DIVESTMENT AND PENNSYLVANIA’S PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT SYSTEMS A Report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Concerning Restrictive Investment Mandates and their Potential Impact upon the Public

Hits: 106

Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 any regulation impacting single-use plastics, reusable plastics, auxiliary containers, wrappings or polystyrene containers and submit a full report of its findings to the General Assembly no later than July 1, 2020.” The act also requires the Legislative Budget and Finance

Hits: 82

Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 22, 2019 This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released in February 2019. The Independent

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

SPECIAL REPORT: Funding and Reforming Public Employee Retirement Systems Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Harrisburg, Pennsylvania January 2013 PUBLIC EMPLOYEE this Commission has a responsibility to study, on a continuing basis, the Commonwealth’s public employee retirement systems and to report thereon to the Governor and the General Assembly. Pursuant to that mandate and the pension funding issues brought about by

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

the purposes of Act 48 of 2017, the Department of Human Services is reviewed over a three-year period. This report contains the third part of the review for the department. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

Hits: 71

Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released in February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) pub- lishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires

Hits: 64

PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Aging. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

Hits: 62

TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 the Performance- Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Historic Preservation Tax Credit (HPTC

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TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf

reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit (RJITC). The IFO identified similar programs in

Hits: 56

IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, we submit this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the Office, this report does not offer any policy recommendations. The data and projections used by this report come from various sources. Economic projections

Hits: 52

TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf

to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Sen- ate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation (CRER) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Educational Tax Credits (ETC). The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed

Hits: 44

PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Criminal Justice, which includes the combined oper- ations of the Department of Corrections and the

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

DRAFT REPORT: Data may change prior to public release. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania State Police. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the

Hits: 42

2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

Retirement Commission Issues Associated with Extending Commonwealth-Subsidized Healthcare Coverage to the Surviving Spouses of Certain Retired Commonwealth Employees A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 161 Adopted in the Session COMMISSION P. O. BOX 1429, HARRISBURG, PA 17105-1429 March 2006 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to House Resolution Number 161, which was adopted by the House of Representatives

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 telephone: 717-230-8293 Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports avail- able to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Keystone Innovation Zone (KIZ

Hits: 39

PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Education. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

Hits: 39

PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Health. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content

Hits: 39

TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Video Game Production (VGP) Tax Credit. The IFO re- viewed studies on video

Hits: 38

TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Research and Development Tax Credit

Hits: 38

TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 the Performance- Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Film Production Tax Credit (FPTC

Hits: 38

TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf

reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Waterfront Development Tax Credit (WDTC). The IFO conducted research to determine if similar

Hits: 37

TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf

reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing (PRM) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on the petrochemical

Hits: 37

Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

System Consulting Services, Information, and Technical Assistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Municipal Pension Plan Funding Standard and Recovery Act Act and Regulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Reporting Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Actuarial Funding Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Required Actuarial Cost Estimates for Benefit Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 General Municipal Pension System State Aid S. §§ 895.101- 895.803), the Commission has three additional responsibili- ties. The first is to administer the actuarial valuation report- ing program for municipal retirement systems that entails monitoring and enforcing compliance with the legislatively mandated actuarial funding standard and

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO sub- mits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In ac- cordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections

Hits: 37

Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections

Hits: 37

Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report

Hits: 37

TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program (EEEP). The IFO reviewed industry reports that relate to

Hits: 36

PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Transportation. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency un- der review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has

Hits: 35

TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on state and

Hits: 33

TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 the Performance- Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Job Creation Tax Credit (JCTC

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections

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PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Executive Offices. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency (PCCD). All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

to transmit four PBB plans and five tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the

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TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf

reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Manufacturing Tax Credit. The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed the

Hits: 30

TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on

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RB-2015-04.pdf

that state‐speci Ðic observations can be weighted to yield population totals for individual states. The CPS asks respondents to report their hourly wage, occupation, number of hours worked, age, sex, ethnicity and other demographic information. The survey also asks respondents are compensated on an hourly or non‐hourly (i.e., salary) basis. For Pennsylvania, the CPS Ðinds that workers who report they are compensated on an hourly basis comprise roughly three‐ Ðifths of total non‐farm payroll employment. For the U

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. All performance- based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

Testimony on Combined Reporting Senate Democratic Policy Committee January 29, 2020 Matthew Knittel, Independent Fiscal Office Good afternoon Chair Boscola and members of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify. For my remarks, I will provide some brief comments on combined reporting, the use of the filing method by other states and the IFO’s perspective on the potential revenue impact. Background

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of State. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content

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2002_drop_report.pdf

PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION HARRISBURG 17120 March 2002 To: Governor Schweiker and Members of the General Assembly This special report deals with the issue of deferred retirement option plans (DROPs), which are currently being implemented by public employers throughout the complications for the Commonwealth unless guidelines are put in place to integrate DROPs with our existing retirement statutes. The enclosed report describes the various design aspects of DROPs, discusses the advantages and disadvantages of DROPs from employer and employee perspectives, and

Hits: 28

TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports avail- able to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

Payments on account of disability shall be reduced by that amount by which the earned income of the annuitant, as reported in accordance with section 8508(b) (relating to rights and duties of annuitants) for the preceding year together with the employment or death or in other circumstances consistent with the purpose of the plan. (14) The board may waive any reporting or information requirement contained in this part if the board determines that the information is not needed for the administration

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Banking and Securities. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the

Hits: 26

IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

be helpful as you consider the FY 2022-23 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses

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TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf

reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit. The IFO identified similar programs in other states

Hits: 25

PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

section describing the basis of the estimate. Recent examples of other publications providing general information include the following:  A report on how CBO prepares baseline budget projections  A slide deck about CBO’s health insurance simulation model  A report on the model that CBO uses to make long-term projections  An appendix about the effects of the 2017

Hits: 25

Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

be helpful as you consider the FY 2021-22 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses

Hits: 25

PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Community and Economic Development. All perfor- mance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board

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RB-2016-02.pdf

economic growth through various direct (e.g., expenditures) and indirect (e.g., tax credits) spending mechanisms. Many states publish comprehensive reports that detail their spending on economic development incentives. In Pennsylvania, the information is dispersed across multiple sources and is not data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives. The report displays this information for the two most recently completed Ðiscal years (FY): 2013‐14 and 2014‐15. In order to

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

DRAFT – INTERNAL USE ONLY Insert DLI Report Cover Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Labor and Industry. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 Act 48 of 2017, the Department of Human Services will be reviewed over a three-year period. This report contains the first part of the review for the department. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

tax rate (e.g., sales-only factor apportionment). Three states attempted to broaden their state tax base through mandatory combined reporting (New Mexico, Connecticut and Rhode Island). For 2018 to 2023, four states are scheduled to reduce their tax rates: Connecticut CNIT revenues to actual profits attributable to a state. However, state-level profits data are not published, and taxable profits reported on state income tax returns are likely not representative of actual state-level profits because those amounts are determined by

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

Public Pension Policy and Funding Considerations Associated with the Implementation of a Statewide Volunteer Firefighter Retirement System In Pennsylvania A report to the House of Representatives of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 452 Adopted in the COMMISSION P. O. BOX 1429, HARRISBURG, PA 17105-1429 March 2004 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to House Resolution Number 452, which was adopted in the House of Representa-

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

Governmental Defined Benefit & Defined Contribution Pension Plans Defined Contribution Pension Plans Defined Contribution Pension Plans Defined Contribution Pension Plans A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 266 Adopted in the Session COMMISSION P. O. BOX 1429, HARRISBURG, PA 17105-1429 December 2002 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to House Resolution Number 266, which was adopted in the House of Representatives

Hits: 22

Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

3 to 2.0 percent. Long‐Term Budget Outlook The IFO recently released its five‐year economic and budget outlook report as required by statute. Due to the budget impasse, the report was re‐released in late January and was updated with certain expenditures as appropriated by the General Assembly and approved

Hits: 21

Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

on a duty specified in its original authorizing legislation and undertaken two new statutory duties. First, the IFO published a report that outlined options for outcome-based performance measurement of executive agencies and created a prototype report to solicit feedback on its usefulness. A built-out version of the prototype report for the Department of Corrections will

Hits: 21

Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

on a duty specified in its original authorizing legislation and undertaken two new statutory duties. First, the IFO published a report that outlined options for outcome-based performance measurement of executive agencies and created a prototype report to solicit feedback on its usefulness. A built-out version of the prototype report for the Department of Corrections will

Hits: 21

2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

FUNDING COST-OF-LIVING ADJUSTMENTS A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to Senate Resolution No. 103 Adopted in the Session COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION HARRISBURG 17120 November 2000 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to the direction provided by Senate Resolution Number 103, which was passed on

Hits: 21

Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 and FY 2020-21. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

the Budget, can be found at the end of this submission. It is the intention of the IFO that the reports designated for the first year would be submitted at the end of this calendar year or the beginning of next of PBB plans or furnishing data for tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes

Hits: 19

TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports avail- able to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Organ and Bone Marrow

Hits: 18

SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf

to the Governor, the General Assembly and the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The act directs the IFO to produce a report that summarizes the results, including a calculation of projected employer contributions to pro- jected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of the General Assembly. The data and projections used in this report are from various

Hits: 18

Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2020-21. The report describes the methodologies used to

Hits: 18

Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 3, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2019-20. The report describes the methodologies used to

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

consulting with Board members regarding the time frame for transmittal of those plans and reviews. The IFO also prepares monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinates analyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists reports published by the IFO during the past

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TC_2022_Brewers.pdf

to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Brewers’ Tax Credit. The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed the

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Environmental Protection. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 6, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2022-23. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 24, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2021-22. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 and FY 2020-21, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May

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NGPR-2016Q1.pdf

DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report First Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count First Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

increased among adults across the United States, but decreased among those ages 12 to 17. During this period, adults who reported using marijuana in the past month increased from 19.0% to 23.0% for ages 18 to 25 and from tissues and users can develop problems with attention, memory and learning functions. 2 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that about 1 in 10 users will become addicted to marijuana and that ratio increases to 1 in 6 for

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf

reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Keystone Special Development Zone (KSDZ) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed relevant research related

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NGPR-2016Q2.pdf

DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Second Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of General Services. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following

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NGPR-2016Q4.pdf

Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Fourth Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015

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NGPR-2016Q3.pdf

Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Third Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

January 4, 2013 Special Report 2013-1 Independent Fiscal Office Proposed Sales Tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair About the Independent Fiscal not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 and assessments to generate the funds necessary to provide those services and meet the needs of residents. This report uses the latest data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

homeownership status and various other factors. This research brief provides a high-level review of how tax law changes affect reported Total Income, Taxable Income, various deductions and tax credits, and Tax Liability. The data suggest that the act likely reduced from the larger child tax credit, higher income taxpayers benefited from lower marginal tax rates. Computation of Total Income Taxpayers report various types of income on the federal income tax return including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, royalties, pensions, IRAs

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

to Pennsylvania landowners, and those amounts must be inferred from other data sources. Royalty income is taxable and recipients must report those amounts on the Pennsylvania personal income tax return (Form PA-40, line 6). Unfortunately, royalty income is not reported separately on the tax return, but is combined with rental, patent and copyright income. However, given (1) the relatively recent

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Agriculture. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

transfer of funds directly to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups are based on the tax returns or reported income levels of stimulus fund recipients across four income groups: (1) below $25,000; (2) $25,000 to $49,999 32% ($10.4 billion) of all EIPs flowed to residents (and any dependents) with AGI under $25,000. For filers reporting less than $100,000 in TY 2019, the share increases to 85% ($27.7 billion) of the total value. Provision

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

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Releases

month, roughly $94 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in January will be shifted to February. Tags: estimates , monthly , revenue Full Report Mid-Year Update FY 2022-23 January 31, 2023 | Revenue Estimates The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. Tags: estimates , mid , revenue , year Full Report SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February January 27, 2023 | Economics and Other The IFO posted a research brief that is

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 and FY 2021-22. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate in June 2021. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General

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PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Revenue. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

May 28, 2013 Special Report 2013-4 Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 through CY 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 and FY 2021-22, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 26, 2021. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

analysis, we have nearly always undertaken requests when time and resources permit. Per the office policy, we make all published reports available on our website after the requestor has had three days to review the response and ask questions. The office are several bills that would further expand the duties of the office to include: the publication of performance-based budget reports, analysis of proposed regulations that are “economically significant,” and cost-benefit analyses using the Results First model maintained by the

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 October 29, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issues this report as an update to its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and

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State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf

fees, tolls and assessments to generate the funds necessary to provide those services and meet the needs of residents. This report uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee type, the report ranks states in descending order based on the ratio of tax revenue to state personal income. This simple ratio is

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SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf

collections and the annual growth rate of those collections. The data exclude delinquent collections because those amounts were not publicly reported for the entire period shown. Key trends in SD property tax collections over the last 10 years include: • FY 2020- 3.8% 4.8% 5.1% 4.3% 4.1% Note: Dollars in millions. The Act 1 base index is reported by PDE through FY 22-23, forecasted by the IFO thereafter. Table 1: School District Property Tax Forecast INDEPENDENT FISCAL

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 8, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released in February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

data that capture interstate migration patterns for calendar years 2012 and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania, more than five million federal tax returns were matched between the two years. The database data reveal a net outflow from Pennsylvania of 21,578 individuals (includes dependents) and $935 million of adjusted gross income reported on tax returns for tax year 2012. The states of New York (6,925), New Jersey (3,858) and Maryland

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DOC_Performance_Measures_Final.pdf

Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: In September 2016, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a report entitled “Using Performance Measures in the State Budget.” In that report, the office described the systems and processes that certain states use to implement performance-based budgeting. The report also included

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Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf

account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school the property tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2019-20 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2020-21 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 and assessments to generate the funds necessary to provide those services and meet the needs of residents. This report uses the latest data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

This report provides an updated forecast of statewide school district property taxes based on the latest published revenue data and economic projections 15.3 billion. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2020-21 in late Spring 2022. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2021-22 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

Q2 by county and (4) county data published by the Department of Revenue (DOR) for wage compensation and net profits reported on the state tax return. 2  For 2020 Q3 to 2021 Q1, projected statewide job loss patterns were applied the COVID-19 pandemic. (Note: The municipal data exclude Philadelphia due to large fluctuations in historical growth rates. Moreover, the reported amounts reflect collections at the much higher city rates on wages and earnings for residents and commuters, and the city

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

to June 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from

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QRR_2014Q2.pdf

to June 2014 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on tabulations from

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school the property tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2018-19 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2019-20 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and FY 2022-23, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 23, 2022. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General

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RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdf

an extra $300 per week for six weeks after the FPUC program expired. Tax return data show that UC amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal tax returns increased from $1.4 billion (2019) to $21.3 billion (2020) and the average amount reported increased from $4,970 to $13,810. (See table. Amounts for 2020 are prior to the temporary $10,200 UC

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QRR_2015Q1.pdf

to March 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from

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QRR_2014Q4.pdf

to December 2014 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from

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QRR_2013Q4.pdf

to December 2013 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report

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QRR_2013Q3.pdf

to September 2013 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf

Aging (PDA) | Dept. of Human Services (DHS, Part 3) ▪ PA Dept. of Education (PDE) | Dept. of Agriculture (AGR) How Can Reports Be Used ▪ Link funding levels to outcome metrics – Did additional funding impact outcomes? ▪ Provide additional metrics and indicators to inform outcomes for regions, counties, school districts within PA differ from the statewide measure? January 24, 2022 1 Common Issues Across Reports PBB reports reflect the significant impact of COVID-19 ▪ Agency caseloads, staffing, operations & related performance measures ▪ Long-term shifts – more

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PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

limitations ▪ Does a 5% credit incentivize investment? | very few relevant studies ▪ Where is investment located? | data not required to be reported ▪ Most economic gains from extension to underserved/unserved areas Modest economic gains | assume 10% is incentivized ▪ Gross ROI: 15 cents 2.5m labor earnings | 39 FTEs Recommendations ▪ If retained, convert to competitive grant program ▪ Require investment to underserved/unserved areas ▪ Report metrics: location of investment, speeds, existing alternatives January 23, 2020 6 Research and Development Tax Credit Credit 10% / 20% of

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NGPR-2019Q4.pdf

years. Calendar year production is up 11.4 per- cent compared to the same period in 2018. Natural Gas Production Report Q4 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 in the future). These graphs pertain only to horizontal wells. All figures are based on production and spud well data reported by DEP through 2019. For 2019, total production was 6,815 bcf, an increase of 11.4 percent over the

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Growing Number of Older Americans Burdened by Housing Costs A report by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies finds that between 2012 and 2017 the number of households headed cost-burdened” paying more than 30% of their income for housing. Older renters and older homeowners still making mortgage payments reported paying between $830 and $1,300 on monthly housing costs. This is considerably more than those 65+ who paid off

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

the end of June. Philadelphia Fed Releases Weekly Business Outlook Survey on COVID-19 The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reports on a weekly survey of over 200 businesses in the Third District (Eastern PA-NJ-DE) to track ongoing economic for the week ending May 10 are compared to the week ending April 12. For May 10, 64% of businesses reported reductions of more than 5% in orders or sales, relatively unchanged from April 12. However, the number of businesses reporting

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- Office Page 1 Introduction Policymakers often inquire about their state’s tax system relative to other states. This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Internal Revenue Service to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

to other special funds included in this analysis have been subtracted to avoid double counting. Note: dollar amounts in thousands. Reporting for special fund spending differs based on the year being reported. Special fund disbursements for actual years are reported on a cash basis, while the estimate for the current fiscal year

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and FY 2022-23. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate in June 2022. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 and FY 2019-20. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

and (2) the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education ($825 million in 2021). • Act 128 of 2020: Enacts administrative and reporting changes for SERS and PSERS. Most notably, the act requires both systems to conduct prescribed stress testing. The IFO will compile those data in a report that summarizes outcomes and calculates the ratio of projected employer pension contributions to projected state revenues. Regular stress testing provides

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- 120). __________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank.- Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 FY 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: 1) the

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PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Section 1704-E (b) of The Fiscal Code. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 and FY 2019-20, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released by the

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 ance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released by the Independent Fiscal

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NGPR-2019Q3.pdf

two years. Calendar year production is up 12.7 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Natural Gas Production Report Q3 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 which casing is placed into the wellbore. Spud Year refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the

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NGPR-2019Q2.pdf

or year. Calendar year production is up 14.6 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Natural Gas Production Report Q2 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 which casing is placed into the wellbore. Spud Year refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the

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NGPR-2017Q1.pdf

8.0 percent. Data for the first quarter are equal to the calendar year-to-date totals. Natural Gas Production Report Q1 Independent Fiscal Office 3 First Quarter 2017 Tables 3 and 4 decompose first quarter and calendar year-to-date n.a. -2.2% 0.3% -2.9% -4.8% -6.5% Notes: Horizontal wells only. Data through 2014 were reported on a half-year basis. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Figure 1 displays the number

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NGPR-2015-2H.pdf

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the last six months of 2015 and the full calendar year. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. Natural Gas Production Report July

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

increase the annual cap to $36 million annually and the amount reserved for pass-through entities would remain unchanged. This report provides an overview of each component of the NAP, explains how the program works and estimates the economic impact of The NAP is authorized under Article XIX-A of the Tax Reform Code of 1971 (Act 48-1994). 2 This report is provided in response to a legislative request and does not constitute a tax credit review as required under Act

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

February from prior year  Positives: housing market, sales tax revenues show strong growth Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now than 2019  Combined reporting vs rate reduction: what is the trade off? March 31, 2021 2 General Fund Financial Statement (Jan 2021) March 31

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MER-2014-11.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% n.a. 2.57% 2.52% 2.35% 2.24% November 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2014-03.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by 1.4% 1.6% 1.1% n.a. 1.87% 2.67% 2.67% 2.69% March 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

on base-broadening reforms  Avoid “race to the bottom.”  Decouple from harmful federal base-narrowing measures  “Combined Reporting” (preferably with worldwide reach on tax havens)  Disclosure/Clawbacks.  Three-factor apportionment factor  Economic nexus  Minimum tax Combined Reporting: The Basics  Combined reporting is one way of tackling a basic problem: what is the “company” to which we

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate by

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

Appropriations Committees prepared by the Independent Fiscal Office February 7, 2014 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 IFO Reports and Analyses 2 Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax. 1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2017-18 in late Spring 2019. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2018-19 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax

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RB-2018-01.pdf

property tax. 1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2016-17 in late spring 2018. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2017 -18 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax 23 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report also incorporates recent IFO research regarding the property taxes paid by homesteads and displays estimates through FY 2022-23. Table

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QRR_2015Q4.pdf

detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues for the fourth

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PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf

This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. All performance- based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not

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NGPR_2022_Q3.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2022 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to compute statewide totals for production volume and

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NGPR_2022_Q2.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2022 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to compute statewide totals for production volume and

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NGPR_2021_Q4.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FOURTH QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and

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NGPR_2021_Q3.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and

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NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and

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NGPR_2020_Q4.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FOURTH QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and

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NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and

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NGPR-2022-Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2022 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and

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NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and

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NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) from natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and

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NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) from natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and

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NGPR-2017Q4.pdf

production grew by 9.8 percent, while the number of producing wells increased by 9.2 percent. Natural Gas Production Report Q4 Independent Fiscal Office 3 Fourth Quarter 2017 Tables 3 and 4 decompose fourth quarter and calendar year production volume Notes: Horizontal wells only. Average production per well represents wells that (1) were spud at least three quarters before the reporting period and no earlier than 12 quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day. Figure 1

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NGPR-2017Q3.pdf

production grew by 4.8 percent, while the number of producing wells increased by 9.3 percent. Natural Gas Production Report Q3 Independent Fiscal Office 3 Third Quarter 2017 Tables 3 and 4 decompose third quarter and calendar year-to-date Notes: Horizontal wells only. Average production per well represents wells that (1) were spud at least three quarters before the reporting period and no earlier than 12 quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day. Figure 1

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

Pennsylvania housing market, because the active period for home sales typically begins in the second quarter. April 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Pennsylvania Association of Realtors, “Pennsylvania Q4- 2015 Statewide Report,” January 2016, and “Pennsylvania Q1-2016 Statewide Report,” March 2016. Data include residential single-family homes, townhouses, and condo- miniums

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MER-2015-02.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.1% 0.7% ‐0.2% n.a. 2.66% 2.17% 1.64% 2.00% February 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2014-10.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% n.a. 2.57% 2.35% 2.52% 2.32% October 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2014-09.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.1% 2.0% 1.7% n.a. 2.64% 2.58% 2.35% 2.52% September 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2014-04.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.2% 1.1% 1.5% n.a. 1.70% 2.66% 2.73% 2.66% April 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

52, and the last two years are excluded from the table to provide costs that are consistent with the period reported for PSERS. The outcomes for the three time periods were as follows:  For FY 2018-19 to 2021-22 begins with a small net unfunded liability, but by the late 1990s, the unfunded liabilities were eliminated, and the Systems reported actuarial surpluses. This result was made possible by strong investment returns related to the “dot com” bubble and the corresponding

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Pensions

years 2001 and 2002 from 15 years to 30 years; 2) require that, in addition to the regular actuarial valuation report required to be filed with the Public Employee Retirement Commission on or before March 31, 2004, a municipality electing to extend the amortization period must file a revised actuarial valuation report reflecting the amortization period extension with the Commission no later than September 30, 2004; 3) require that the revised report

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TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf

The data show that: • Over 6.2 million Pennsylvania residents filed a federal return and the majority (83.4 percent) reported adjusted gross income under $100,000. • Over 1.1 million filers reported business income on Schedule C, partnership income or a distribution from an S corporation. Many filers report income from two

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Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf

exception is Philadelphia, which has the third-lowest property tax burden in the state. This result occurs because the county reported the highest level of personal income while also having a relatively low reliance on school property taxes compared to other Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Non-farm personal income in CY 2020 by county reported by the BEA is the base for county income. That measure is then adjusted to account for several factors. The

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

370 Less State Expenditures ‐32,065 Lapses 50 ======= Ending Balance ‐1,860 Note: dollar amounts are in millions. IFO January Report 8.Jun.2016 6  FY 2016‐17 expenditure growth of $1,884 million. • One‐time expenditure deferrals expire. • Use a “normal” level. • Elimination of the capital stock and franchise tax. • Technical considerations affect timing of revenues. Highlights of January Report 8.Jun.2016 7  Impact of changes on FY 2016‐17 is unclear. • Sustainability of reductions to Medical Assistance

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perez ppt.pdf

in 5 states  Below estimate in 3 states (MI, OK and SD)  Real Estate Transfer  17 states reported real estate transfer taxes coming in on target or above expectations. 4 states—Hawaii, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania—reported transfer taxes below the current forecast.  Miscellaneous  5 states and Puerto Rico saw other miscellaneous taxes performing above

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NGPR-2019Q1.pdf

7 percent. Despite decelerating from the previous two quarters, production growth continued to show signifi- cant strength. Natural Gas Production Report Q1 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) First Quarter Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 2019 Growth which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the

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NGPR-2018Q4.pdf

14.2 percent from the prior year, the largest year- over-year increase in production since 2014. Natural Gas Production Report Q4 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth Share 2017 which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the

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NGPR-2018Q3.pdf

That rate is considerably higher than the first (9.9 percent) and second (10.0 percent) quarters. Natural Gas Production Report Q3 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the

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NGPR-2018Q2.pdf

a 10.0 percent gain in production from horizontal wells, which ac- counts for nearly all production. Natural Gas Production Report Q2 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the

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NGPR-2018Q1.pdf

9.9 percent increase in production from horizontal wells, which ac- counts for nearly all of production. Natural Gas Production Report Q1 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) First Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth Share 2017 which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the

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NGPR-2017Q2.pdf

production grew by 3.8 percent, while the number of producing wells increased by 7.5 percent. Natural Gas Production Report Q2 Independent Fiscal Office 3 Second Quarter 2017 Tables 3 and 4 decompose second quarter and calendar year-to-date which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the

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NGPR-2015-1H.pdf

Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the first six months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. A separate document published on

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NGPR-2015-09.pdf

Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the first six months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. A separate document published on

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

QCEW), issued by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, publishes quarterly data on employment and wages by sector, as reported by employers. In June, state data were released for the fourth quarter of 2016. For calendar year 2016, the data for the elderly and disabled ($21,479) being somewhat lower than the average for that sector. June 2017 Monthly Trends Report Sector 1 2015 2016 Health Care and Social Assistance 11,459 21,012 Ambulatory Health Care Svcs. 2 5,987

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

a coast. The outflow could also be attributable to graduates moving back home after college. The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that one-third of people aged 18-34 live at home. Pennsylvania ranks 2nd highest in the nation of graduates in search of a lower cost of living, which can be found in Pennsylvania. April 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-YEAR PUMS 2015. 2 The Institute for College Access & Success, College

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

in consumer habits and (2) tighter underwriting standards that hindered loans to potential new homeowners. 3 March 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 Consumers Take a Credit Card Breather, The Wall Street Journal. March 2017. 2 Project on Student Debt, The Institute per capita for the fourth quarter of each calendar year and multiplied by the number of consumers with a credit report in each state to yield total debt. Number of consumers for 2016 is an IFO estimate. Total debt figures include

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

regional natural gas market will partly determine whether or not Pennsylvania follows these projected national trends. February 2017 Monthly Trends Report PA Electricity Generation By Source 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ report/electricity.cfm Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. United States Pennsylvania Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Nov-

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

STRONG Pennsylvania home sales continued a pattern of strong growth in 2016. The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors (PAR) releases quarterly reports on home sales and prices in the Commonwealth. The data include single-family units, townhomes and condominiums through the fourth it is unclear what the net impact on housing prices and sales will be going forward. January 2017 Monthly Trends Report Pennsylvania Housing Market 1 National Association of Realtors, “U.S. Economic Outlook: December 2016,” December 2016. 2 National Association of

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

York to –3.4% in West Virginia. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis divides GDP into different sectors for reporting purposes. For Pennsylvania, real GDP growth in the first half of the year was motivated by gains in agriculture (54 some of the weakness in their real GDP growth rates from the first half of 2016. December 2016 Monthly Trends Report 2016 Real GDP Growth by State State Q1 Q2 First Half New York 5.6% 0.1% 2.8% Delaware

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

at current levels, and demand for drilling employees should increase. However, as shown in the IFO’s Natural Gas Production Report for the third quarter of 2016, 2 operators still possess a substantial inventory of wells that have been drilled but that the employment contraction may have abated, more employment data are necessary to confirm that outcome. November 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Provided by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Labor and Industry. 2 Released on November 30, 2016. 3 Natural Gas Intelligence

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

particularly strong through April 2016 (9.2% annual growth). One of the larger retailers in this sector, Home Depot Inc., reported that customers spent $60 per trip this year, which is the highest level since the first quarter of 2006. 1 it is unclear if others will reverse (i.e., less dining out if gasoline prices increase). May 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 The Wall Street Journal, “Home Depot Tops Views, Boosts Guidance,” May 17, 2016. Sector Sales as a Share of

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

tax collections in March and April, when corporations remit their final payments for tax year 2015. February 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 will be released March 25. 2 Third quarter mining profits from the “Quarterly Financial Report”, U.S. Census Bureau. Sector Dollar Amounts Growth Share 2013-14 2014-15 Rate of Total Wholesale Trade $410.0

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

9 Share of PA Employment 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% Data Sources: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (Deposit Market Share Reports) and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Financial Activities, Depository Credit Intermediation, Pennsylvania). 1 Amounts in billions. Deposits attributed to Pennsylvania banking activity. 2 Annual average growth since 2006. 3 Thousands of payroll jobs. August 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Aug-15 $1,868 $1,848 $20 Growth 4.3% 4.1% 23.7% FYTD

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

they spent the first round of Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) and how they would spend a second-round payment. Respondents reported the share of the payment used for the following categories: spending on essentials, spending on non-essentials, donations, savings or paying down debt. For first-round EIPs, those surveyed reported spending 18.2% on essentials (i.e., daily living expenses), 7.7% on non-essentials (i.e., hobbies, leisure) and

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MER-2014-06.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% n.a. 2.52% 2.67% 2.44% 2.53% June 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf

Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2021 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2022) reported by the PUC, (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3) discusses two potential

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2020 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2021) reported by the Public Utility Commission (PUC), (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2019 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2020) reported by the Public Utility Commission (PUC), (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

which required all internet sellers with annual sales above $10,000 in the state to collect tax or comply with reporting requirements. The revised estimate of this provision increases revenues by roughly $200 million. This is a permanent gain.  The 2019, the IFO submitted five PBB plans and three tax credit reviews to the PBB Board for their review. These reports represent the first year of a five-year cycle where all agencies under the governor’s jurisdiction and all tax

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

 Per Act 120 of 2010:  Initial (May 1) and Official (June 15) revenue estimate.  Five-Year Outlook Report (November 15).  Annual Revenue Conference (January 31).  Two Studies: (1) Sales and Use Tax, (2) Shared Risk Pension not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

income. This figure includes all types of property taxes: school district, county and municipal. Based on property tax collection data reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), the IFO estimates that 70 Armstrong and Indiana). Therefore, the data are presented in 38 county groups, which is largely consistent with how they are reported in the PUMS dataset. These data show that the statewide property tax burden for homeowners age 65 or older is

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

prior year  IFO projects six years needed to return to pre-pandemic level Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now than 2019  Combined reporting vs rate reduction: what is the trade off? March 11, 2021 2 General Fund Financial Statement (Jan 2021) March 11

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Oct-12 Aug Sept Oct-13 8.0% 7

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Jul-12 May Jun Jul-13 8.1% 7.5% 7.5%

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental use available state, federal and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. Reports The IFO publishes monthly reports highlighting the latest economic releases and revenue trends. In addition, the office publishes a quarterly

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Oct-12 7.9% 170.3 4.8% Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Oct-12 8.1% 14.0 1.6%

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx

1 Tax Credit Methodology Meet with stakeholders and agency staff. ▪ Request data from agencies: DCED, DOR, PHMC. ▪ Agencies review draft reports. ▪ All invited to submit comments. Review relevant studies over past decade. ▪ Government, academic and industry. ▪ Benchmark PA tax credit to the last five years. ▪ The merger of Securities into the Department of Banking and Securities impacts historical trends in the report. ▪ Educational programs are shifting to professional outreach and targeted education efforts . January 24, 2019 14 Recommendations ▪ Report percent of assets

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SR2017-03.pdf

Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Methodology This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across

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QRR_2016Q1.pdf

detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues for the first

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QRR_2015Q3.pdf

annual and quarterly revenue estimates are available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues for the third

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

not performed its own analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 7/15/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS by a new member. The PSERS normal cost is based on an average of the costs for all members. PSERS reports that the cost for a new member is approximately 3%. Sources: SERS 2014 Actuarial Report (June 2015) and PSERS June

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

not performed its own analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 4/11/2016 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS by a new member. The PSERS normal cost is based on an average of the costs for all members. PSERS reports that the cost for a new member is approximately 3%. Sources: SERS 2014 Actuarial Report (June 2015) and PSERS June

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf

given funding levels? ▪ How does PA compare to other states and U.S.? April 27, 2021 1 Common Issues Across Reports PBB reports reflect the significant impact of Covid-19 ▪ Pandemic affected agency caseloads, staffing, operations and related performance data ▪ In some cases

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PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf

with legislative staff agency template submissions, research benchmarks with other states, update to PBB Board Dec final template submissions, begin report drafts Jan 2019 provide drafts to agencies, agency edits, final meetings, submit to Board Jan 14 January 22, 2019 3 than historical years.  Budget year not included. January 22, 2019 4 First-Year Goals for PBB Plans Build the report foundation for future years.  Easily read and expandable. Not text dense.  Create flexible data template to be used

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

PBB (prospective) vs Traditional (incremental)  Metrics are an integral part of the appropriation process  Traditional: metrics might be reported, but play no material role Significant time spent to determine actual input values  Actual spending, actual FTEs, allocation of  Request efficiency metrics previously not compiled by agencies  Many more state and county benchmarks Year 3: further streamline reports, more outcome metrics  Limit number of activities (set dollar or percentage threshold)  Use other methods: statistical analysis and

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

were encouraging (3.2% growth), but additional data are needed to establish a new trend. 1 May 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 Excludes impact of tax law changes and transfers. 2 See https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/. Sales Tax Revenue Growth Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

wage growth, and possibly higher real and nominal economic growth for Pennsylvania and the U.S. October 2016 Monthly Trends Report Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Annual Wage Growth 1 U Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

is unclear whether residential prices in PA will follow the same trend as the national average. August 2016 Monthly Trends Report Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Notes: Average retail prices are measured in cents per kilowatt-hour. Average retail prices Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

employment growth and second quarter GDP will provide key insights to the U.S. economic outlook. June 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 The Wall Street Journal, “Economic Gauges Raise Specter of Recession,” June 19, 2016. Notes: 3-month average growth rates Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

path, or represents an unusual data point due to weak year-end bonuses or seasonal hiring. March 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 See Table SQ5N under the “State Quarterly Personal Income” link at http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm. 2 Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

contractors. It also excludes most partners employed in partnerships as well as owners of S corporations. January 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State Area Employment Data- base. Data exclude military personnel and agricultural workers. 2015 Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1,808 $1,796 $12 Growth 4.3% 3.8% 374 Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

4% next year if Social Security recipients are to receive a 2.0% COLA in 2017. October 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Oct-15 $2,132 $2,109 $23 Growth -4.9% -4.6% -27.8% FYTD Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

data: CPS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16-19 51.9% 48.8% 44.4% 40.9% Monthly Trends Report General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul 2015 $2,135 $2,097 $38 Growth -4.9% 5.1% -84 Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

COVID-19 pandemic have reduced demand for natural gas in 2020, which is causing prices to decline even further. PA Reports Lower Confidence in Ability to Pay Mortgage than U.S. Average The U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey July 2 to July 7 on current trends related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Pennsylvania households that held a mortgage reported that 83.2% paid the previous month’s mortgage, which was lower than the national average (86.1%). A higher

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MER-2015-06.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor 2.0% -0.1% 0.0% n.a. 2.53% 2.05% 2.12% 2.33% June 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2

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MER-2015-04.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 2.0% ‐0.1% 0.0% n.a. 2.67% 2.00% 1.96% 2.06% April 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2015-03.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.5% ‐0.2% ‐0.1% n.a. 2.73% 1.64% 2.00% 1.96% March 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2015-01.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% n.a. 2.67% 2.18% 2.17% 1.64% January 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2

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MER-2014-12.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% n.a. 3.04% 2.35% 2.24% 2.22% December 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2014-08.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% n.a. 2.78% 2.53% 2.58% 2.34% August 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2014-07.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% n.a. 2.60% 2.48% 2.53% 2.57% July 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2014-05.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% n.a. 2.16% 2.73% 2.67% 2.44% May 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2014-02.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by 1.9% 1.5% 1.6% n.a. 1.89% 3.04% 2.67% 2.67% February 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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MER-2014-01.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% n.a. 2.02% 2.75% 3.04% 2.67% January 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households

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House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf

and (2) the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education ($825 million in 2021). • Act 128 of 2020: Enacts administrative and reporting changes for SERS and PSERS. The act requires both systems to conduct prescribed stress testing of their systems. The IFO will compile those data in a report that summarizes outcomes and calculate the ratio of projected employer pension contributions to projected state revenues. August 19, 2021 1

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report uses a cost-to-carry approach for current year expenditures due to the current budget impasse. This approach holds spending

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County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Non-farm personal income in CY 2019 by county reported by the BEA is the base for county income. That measure is then adjusted to account for several factors. The the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE). School district revenues are summed to their respective counties based on how they are reported by PDE. The analysis does not attempt to apportion multi-county school districts across counties. County and municipal revenues are

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Sept-12 Jul Aug Sept-13 8

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a r c h 2 0 1 3 Jan 7.9% 195.0 4.4% 11.4% 73.8 Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report M a r c h 2 0 1 3 Jan 8.2% 4.0 0.3% -1.8% 24.6%

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Dec 7.8% 201.0 4.3% 12 Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Dec 7.9% 2.3 3.0% -3

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 181.7 4.3% 11.1% Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 13.4 1.4% 0.4%

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 May 8.2% 99.3 5.6% 8.7% 79 6% -12.9 3.49 1.3% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 Jul-11 8.1% 0.0 1.4% 2.6%

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TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf

leakage (e.g., 5%- 10% leakage = $4m-$8m per year) ▪ DCED should compile and track performance metrics prior to 2028 report January 10, 2023 5 #3 Rural Jobs and Investment Purpose: Invest in rural businesses that have difficulty accessing capital ▪ DCED deployed to 4 rural businesses in 4 counties (Adams, Berks, Luzerne and Mercer) ▪ 106 jobs created or retained ▪ Unclear from reports whether firms had sufficient time to fully deploy new capital Recommendations ▪ More effective as DCED loan program | repaid loans could

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RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf

future students during the budget window. 3 These amounts include a pro-ration to Pennsylvania for borrowers who did not report their state location ($92.0 billion, 3.6 million borrowers). For data see https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/portfolio generally comparable to the U.S. average. For 2019, IRS data show that 19.7% of all income tax filers reported more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income on the federal tax return. For Pennsylvania, the share was the same

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QRR_2017Q3.pdf

4). The most recent publication detailing these estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its revenue estimates with actual revenue collec- tions. The report also provides context for the vari- ances between estimates and actual collections. For more detail on revenue growth rates by

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QRR_2017Q2.pdf

Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW APRIL TO JUNE Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by

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QRR_2017Q1.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JANUARY TO MARCH Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve‐ nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec‐ tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by

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QRR_2016Q4.pdf

INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW OCTOBER TO DECEMBER Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth

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QRR_2016Q3.pdf

most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018-19 to 2023-24, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

7 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Annual Growth Rates, Income Reported on PA Tax Return Capital Gains, Rent-Royalties, Dividends Business Profits Wages- Salaries Anticipated Tax Cut Fiscal Cliff 5-Year Note: Percentages in parentheses represent share of total debt. Per capital debt levels for all PA consumers with a credit report. Includes family members of such consumers. Source: Federal Reserve Board of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐3, which reported unconventional gas well impact fee collections for calendar year (CY) 2014 along with three potential scenarios for CY 2015 collections deduction of post‐ production costs). Endnotes 1. Data collected from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil and gas production reports from 2011 to 2015 (last accessed February 16, 2016) and spud well reports (last accessed February 10, 2016). 2. Pursuant

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

Federal Balance of Payments Estimated for Federal Fiscal Year 2018 The Office of the New York State Comptroller released a report that examines the distribution of federal budg- et receipts and expenditures across states in Federal Fiscal Year (FFY) 2018. Some farms. Income Tax Breaks for Seniors Estimated at $1.5 Billion The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released a report that discusses tax breaks targeted to seniors. Pennsylvania is one of three states (Illinois and Mississippi) that exempt all private

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Philadelphia 2018: The State of the City The PEW Charitable Trusts released a report on Philadelphia that shows bullish economic trends since the start of the year. The city accounts for roughly 12% of consecutive year. These factors produced stronger-than-anticipated revenues for wage, sales, business, property, and real estate transfer taxes. The report also discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for 2017 The U.S. Bureau

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

since dairy purchases comprise a little more than ten percent of consumer spending on groceries. 5 September 2016 Monthly Trends Report Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Milk Marketing Board, “Wholesale Retail Pricing,” Jan 2014-Aug 2016. Notes: Prices reflect the average retail price or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2016 - MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT SELECT GENERAL FUND TAX REVENUES - ANNUAL GROWTH RATES Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Corporate Net Income Tax Realty Transfer

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 blank. - FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY

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MER-2013-12.pdf

Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.8% 0.9% 1.2% n.a. 1.72 2.62 2.72 2.96 December 2013 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2

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MER-2013-11.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Nov-12 Sept Oct Nov-13 8.1%

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2018 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2019) reported by the Public Utility Commission (PUC), (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2017 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2018) reported by the Public Utility Commission (PUC), (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3

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IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf

Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s five-year economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY

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IFO ppt.pdf

Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Background • Public Act 120 of 2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year outlook report. – Release date is November 15 th . – Consider economics, demographics, revenues and expenditures. • Act also requires Office to convene a revenue Office has combined two events. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Five–Year Outlook ReportReport and presentations will be posted on website: www.ifo.state.pa.us • Modeling is simple and transparent. – Projections motivated

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY

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Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report finds that policymakers will face a shortfall of $1.85 billion in FY 2015-16. This includes $171 million for

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2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf

Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2022, which will the volume of production, and do not provide a measure of tax burden relative to natural gas sales. Therefore, this report computes an annual effective tax rate (ETR) for all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal to

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2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2021, which will volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax burden relative to natural gas sales. Therefore, this report computes an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) for all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal

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2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2020, which will volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax burden relative to natural gas sales. Therefore, this report computes an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) for all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Aug-12 Jun Jul Aug-13 8.1% 7.5%

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Jun-12 Apr May Jun-13 8.0% 7.6% 7.5%

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 May-12 Mar Apr May-13 7.9% 7.9% 7.6% n

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Apr-12 Feb Mar Apr-13 7.8% 8.1% 7

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Nov-12 7.7% 138.7 4.2% Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Nov-12 7.8% 11.8 1.4%

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Jul 8.3% 104.3 4.2% 8.7% Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1%

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Jun 8.2% 66.7 4.7% Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 8.1% 156.7 6.1% 8.0% 76.4 54 1,362 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 7.4% 7.4 6.5% 10.2% 11.7% 8

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About IFO

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental forecasting revenues from minor and repealed, insurance premiums and financial institutions taxes; working on performance-based budgeting and tax credit reports; and reporting on the state and local tax burden. Other responsibilities include working on projects related to natural gas and

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Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf

Credit Methodology Meet with stakeholders and agency staff.  Request data from agencies: DCED, DOR, PHMC.  Agencies review draft reports.  All invited to submit comments. Review relevant studies over past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA last five years.  The merger of Securities into the Department of Banking and Securities impacts historical trends in the report.  Educational programs are shifting to professional outreach and targeted education efforts. January 24, 2019 14 Recommendations Report percent of

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Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf

separates incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The amount reported for each incentive is an estimate of the dollars claimed or awarded each fiscal year. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts of 2017, the IFO is reviewing the Manufacturing, Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Reports will be posted to the IFO website in January 2023. Tax Credits and Other Incentives Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf

Credit Methodology Meet with stakeholders and agency staff.  Request data from agencies: DCED, DOR, PHMC.  Agencies review draft reports.  All invited to submit comments. Review relevant studies over past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA last five years.  The merger of Securities into the Department of Banking and Securities impacts historical trends in the report.  Educational programs are shifting to professional outreach and targeted education efforts. January 24, 2019 14 Recommendations Report percent of

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

from the Census ACS excludes capital gains, which will accrue disproportionately to high income households. From 2012 to 2018, total reported capital gains on federal income tax returns increased by roughly 56 percent, or 7.7 percent per annum during the than the growth rate of other income sources. Federal tax data reveal that approximately 85 percent of capital gains are reported by taxpayers that would be included in the upper income group for the purpose of this analysis. If capital gains

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

IFO).  The IFO cannot comment on whether policy is good /bad or better/worse than current law.  The report provides a general framework for analysis of the proposal. The IFO defers to the committees of the General Assembly for 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 11 School Property Tax Forecast Recent school property tax growth rates based on reported data: FY 2006-07 5.9% FY 2007-08 4.6% FY 2008-09* 4.7% FY 2009-10* 3

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

3% -25% 20% S&P 500 Index 4% -39% 24% 10% 20% -7% n.a. Note: Net Profits include income reported by independent contractors, sole proprietors, partners and S corporation shareholders on the state tax return. Capital Gains and Dividends are 26 Total 0 5 -17 -15 14 Note: Growth rates for April and May are based on weekly Lottery sales reports. Lottery Sales and Revenues May 26, 2020 19 Amounts Growth Rate 18-19 19-20 20-21 18-19 19-

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Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf

show nonmotor growing by $1 million (0.1%) and motor vehicle falling by $11 million (-3.8%).  Other sources reporting increases were personal income tax, realty transfer tax and nontax revenues. Inheritance and cigarette taxes registered declines. Change in General 73.5 $701.1 $164.1 $806.1 percent change 1.8% 3.6% 2.1% 3.0% Revenue Trends Report March 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions March Percent March Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf

million (16.9%) increase in withholding deposits. The resulting shift of revenue compared to last year’s pattern will weaken reported revenue growth in February. o Strong quarterly estimated payments resulted in an increase of $54 million (15.2%) in nonwithholding 8 $712.8 $278.4 $1,074.7 percent change 8.2% 5.2% 4.6% 4.0% Revenue Trends Report January 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions January Percent January Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change

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RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The reviewing the Educational Improvement and Opportunity Scholarship, the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Mixed-Use Development and Brewers’ tax credits. Reports will be available to the public in January 2022. Economic Development Incentives Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2021 Independent

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The Program, Resource Enhancement and Protections Program, Entertainment and Economic Enhancement, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zones tax credits. Reports will be available to the public in January 2021. Economic Development Incentives Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2020 Independent

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a long-term economic and budget outlook for Pennsylvania, according to director Matthew Knittel. The report, entitled The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, will be available on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can use to assess the fiscal sustainability of current tax and spending

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

Michigan Property Tax Reform. o Released last week. HB 76 and SB 76: To be Released Soon. Five-Year Outlook Report – November 15. o Projections for FY 2013-14 to FY 2018-19. o Demographics, Economics, Expenditures, Revenues. o Special Reports. o Last Year: Pensions and Affordable Care Act. 24 . Sept . 2013 23 Property Tax Reform Last year, IFO analyzes HB

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

January.  Office Does Not Make Policy Recommendations. 12.Feb.2015 3 The Independent Fiscal Office  Two Regular Monthly Reports. • Monthly Economic Report. • Monthly Revenue Trends Report.  Special Studies (at request of Gen. Assembly): • HB 1776 and SB 76 – Property Tax Reform

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

not performed its own analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 3/26/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 3/26/2015 8 Unfunded Accrued Liabilities Most Recent Actuarial Valuations Note: Dollar amounts in billions. Sources: SERS 2013 Actuarial Report (June 2014) and PSERS June 30, 2014 Actuarial Valuation (January 2015) 3/26/2015 9 Unfunded Liability History ‐$20 ‐$10

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PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf

62 2,894 7.25 43,414 Note: Millions of dollars. Data sourced from various system projections, releases and financial reports, unless noted otherwise. For year ranges (ex: 2005-10), Employer Contribution Rate and State Contributions are averages. System Return is 5-year performance as noted in system CAFR. Unfunded Liability is final year UAL. Calculations by the IFO. 1 SERS reported on calendar year basis except for Employer Contribution Rate. Includes all funds. 2 SERS 2020 employer contributions include $1.1

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf

to measure benefits over time Agencies lack outcome data related to state funds for county programs ▪ Decentralized, outdated IT systems report required measures only ▪ Need dedicated resources and standardized measures at the local level January 9, 2023 2 Common Themes (Continued program to reduce consumer healthcare costs ▪ Federal American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act funding for initiatives in DDAP and DCNR PBB reports reflect the significant impact of COVID-19 ▪ More variance noted in agency resources (FTEs and funding) and program outcomes January

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

3% -20% 13% S&P 500 Index 5% -39% 24% 10% 20% -2% n.a. Note: Net Profits include income reported by independent contractors, sole proprietors, partners and S corporation shareholders on the state tax return. Capital Gains and Dividends are 10 -37 -27 Total 0 5 -17 -14 21 Note: Growth rates for May are based on weekly Lottery sales reports. Lottery Sales and Revenues June 22, 2020 18 Amounts Growth Rate 18-19 19-20 20-21 18-19 19-

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

county-level data that suggest a substantial increase in the Pennsylvania opioid overdose death rate for 2016. 1 The DEA report suggests that the opioid overdose death rate for 2016 will increase to 16.1 (2,060 opioid deaths), a 4 infections. The study finds that currently it would cost the U.S. over $100 billion to treat those that are reportedly infected. 6 If that study is reasonably accurate, then the actual cost of the opioid crisis could be considerably higher

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MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf

Monthly Trends Report Independent Fiscal Office Highlights of the October Report October 2015 General Fund revenues declined by $110 million (-4.9%) compared to the same month in the prior year

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

student loans for six months (renewable), while many auto loan businesses offered optional forbearance. The New York Federal Reserve Bank reported on the status of borrowers in forbearance for a mortgage or auto loan. More individuals opted into auto loan forbearance space combined with low mortgage rates drives demand in an already competitive housing market. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales reached a new 14- year high in the U.S., increasing for the fifth consecutive month

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

increased 18.7%, and used cars increased 45.3% from June 2020. For sales volume, the National Automobile Dealer Association reported that U.S. June car sales grew 18% year-over-year. However, JD Power recently reported that U.S. new car sales are subsiding due to supply constraints and low inventories. Moving forward, industry analysts project

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Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf

Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania May 13, 2013 Based on new information received after the release of its original report on Medicaid expansion, the Independent Fiscal Office has published a revision. The revised report incorporates (1) a modest reduction in the projected cost savings, (2) an increase in federal funds derived from the gross

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

benefits. Excludes capital gains which are highly skewed to higher income taxpayers. For 2015, 82% of PA capital gains were reported by taxpayers with more than $200k of AGI. If included, capital gains would comprise 10-15% of reported income. Sources: IRS Statistics of Income, Publication 1304, Table 1.5 and Social Security Administration. More U.S. Seniors Are

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2012-13 to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report posted to IFO website: www.ifo.state.pa.us.  Demographic Outlook  New projections from Penn State Data Center Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 4 15.Nov.2012 Some Conventions  Select a base year for comparison purposes.  Report uses FY 2012-13.  Assume base year policy is maintained all future years.  Provide same relative funding levels

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19, provides data and analysis that policymakers and current tax and spending policies. It is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report finds that the Commonwealth faces a long-term structural deficit,” Knittel said. “Furthermore, policymakers will enter FY 2014-15 budget

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force participation rates reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus From PA Labor Force Fund Revenue and Fee Proposals ▪ $2.96 billion – PIT rate increase to 4.49% | Expand tax forgiveness ▪ $209 million – Combined reporting | CNIT rate reduction phase-in ▪ $116 million – Minimum wage increase ▪ $168 million – New municipal fee to fund state police services

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

Broaden Tax Base Sales – Custom Programming $330 Sales – Storage and Aircraft 160 Insurance Premiums Tax 142 Tax Reform Corporate – Combined Reporting 0 Corporate – Rate Reduction 0 Corporate – NOL Threshold 81 New Severance Tax – 6.5% 294 TOTAL $1,006 Note: millions of dollars. The combined reporting and lower corporate tax rate (6.49%) proposals are effective or phased-in beginning 1/1/19. Source: FY 2017-

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Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf

Prepares Estimates of the Effects of Legislative Proposals 4 For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/about/products. CBO’s reports cover every major area of federal policy, including spending programs, the tax code, and budgetary and economic challenges. The reports often present options for changes in the federal program or tax rules under consideration, but they make no recommendations. CBO

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WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf

Spending Through 2018 Capital Reserve Fund, $329, 39% Public Infrastructure Construction, $259, 31% Emergency Prep./Public Safety, $110, 13% Not Reported, $52, 6% Storm Water/Sewer Systems, $20, 2% Env. Programs, $18, 2% Other, $63, 7% July 14, 2020 4 Note  State liquid fuels taxes down in FY19-20, projected to decline further in FY20-21.  IFO to release report estimating local revenue losses (county, municipal, school). Recent Trends – Decline and Deceleration July 14, 2020 10 2018 2019 2020 Q4

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TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf

Panther Creek) | new dynamic, impact unclear January 24, 2022 6 #3 Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Economic and environmental impacts ▪ Report assumes that ~20% of coal refuse burned incentivized by tax credit ▪ Highly dependent on wholesale electricity price and other revenues repeat donors (effectively excludes new donors) ▪ Require organizations to submit demographic, income and outcome data ▪ Require DCED to publish annual report of all relevant data January 24, 2022 10 CreationDate: 2022-01-24 14:39:18 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

hearing, several members also raised questions regarding the revenue proposals contained in the Executive Budget. The IFO will release a report later this month that contains an analysis of those proposals. Thank you for the opportunity to submit additional information on 2 2,881.7 519.9 626.0 106.1 Note: Includes all first-time post-secondary students enrolled at reporting institutions. Degree-granting institutions grant associate or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Source: U

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RTR-2014-12.pdf

the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 5.6%.  Tax revenues increased by 287.3 $745.7 $469.7 $669.5 percent change 12.2% 6.1% 7.7% 2.4% Revenue Trends Report December 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) December Percent December Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1

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RTR-2014-11.pdf

the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 3.7%.  Tax revenues increased by 38.3 $458.5 $341.9 $329.7 percent change 2.3% 4.7% 5.5% 1.2% Revenue Trends Report November 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) November Percent November Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1

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RTR-2014-10.pdf

the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 4.1%.  Tax revenues increased by 144.2 $420.2 $336.8 $325.3 percent change 7.0% 5.2% 5.4% 1.2% Revenue Trends Report October 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) October Percent October Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1

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RTR-2014-07.pdf

83.4 $83.4 $135.4 $15.1 percent change 4.4% 4.4% 2.1% 0.1% Revenue Trends Report July 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) July Percent July Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 5.2.2 ModDate: 2014-08-13 15:21:31 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.9 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Pages 2 and 3.xlsx

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RTR-2013-10.pdf

54.1 $125.8 $26.6 $610.0 percent change 2.7% 1.6% 0.4% 2.2% Revenue Trends Report October 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions October Percent October Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 2 ModDate: 2013-11-12 17:22:50 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.8 (Windows) Title: Page 1 - Revenue Trends Report - October 2013.pdf

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

part and full-time job losses appear to be accounted for  Who is receiving PUA payments?  Many states report serious issues with identity and other fraud October 29, 2020 4 PA Employment Recovers Thru July, Then Moderates October 29 accommodation, travel  Businesses undergo transformation | teleworking and automation  Higher worker productivity = fewer employment opportunities October 29, 2020 15 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us October 29, 2020 16 CreationDate: 2020-10-

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Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf

the three-month and twelve-month periods, respectively.  Inheritance tax collections declined by $9 million (-14.6%). Revenue Trends Report September 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions September Percent September Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2012-10-12 14:07:29 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - September 2012.pdf

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Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf

by $9 million (38.5%). The three and twelve-month increases were 12.5% and 9.2%, respectively. Revenue Trends Report October 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions October Percent October Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2012-11-20 21:56:24 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - October 2012.pdf

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Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf

year. Receipts for the latest three and twelve-month periods increased by 18.1% and 12.4%, respectively. Revenue Trends Report November 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions November November November Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2012-12-14 15:25:21 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - November 2012.pdf

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Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf

134.1 $997.6 $369.9 $887.4 percent change 7.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3% Revenue Trends Report May 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions May Percent May Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2013-06-19 20:17:28 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.7 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - May 2013.pdf

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Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf

79.0 $918.6 $217.5 $918.6 percent change -3.0% 3.4% 2.8% 3.4% Revenue Trends Report June 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions June Percent June Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change Acrobat 10.1.7 ModDate: 2013-07-03 20:56:36 Producer: Adobe Acrobat 10.1.7 Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - June 2013.pdf

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf

99.2 $99.2 $154.3 $898.8 percent change 5.5% 5.5% 2.4% 3.3% Revenue Trends Report July 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions July Percent July Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 2 ModDate: 2013-08-07 16:45:39 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.7 (Windows) Title: Microsoft Word - Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - July 2013

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Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf

85.2 $627.6 $248.0 $808.5 percent change -5.0% 4.1% 4.1% 3.0% Revenue Trends Report February 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions February Percent February Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2013-03-12 15:46:42 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.5 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - February 2013.pdf

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Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf

9%. The three and twelve-month rolling averages displayed growth rates of 28.2% and 12.7%, respectively. Revenue Trends Report December 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions December Percent December Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2013-01-08 17:30:27 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - December 2012.pdf

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf

for the first two months of the fiscal year show a significant increase (17%) over the prior year. Revenue Trends Report August 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions August Percent August Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2012-09-17 13:12:20 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - August 2012.pdf

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Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf

162.4 $863.5 $150.7 $878.2 percent change 5.0% 3.8% 1.7% 3.2% Revenue Trends Report April 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions April Percent April Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2013-05-09 13:21:26 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.5 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - April 2013.pdf

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

585 18,188 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. 1 Actuals through FY 2020-21. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2018-19. Estimated by IFO thereafter. Table 1 Estimate Forecast School District Property Tax Forecast April Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) funding attributable to recipients age 65 and older is based on Department of Revenue PTRR statistical report data. The transfer to the Lottery Fund for the PTRR program that would have occurred in FY 2020-21 was

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

contact your office. Child Welfare Program Funding in Pennsylvania For state fiscal year (SFY) 2017-18, child welfare program spending reported through the Act 148 invoices in Pennsylvania totaled $1,828.3 million and was funded by a combination of state and counties will have to coordinate to ensure that the 50-percent requirement is met on a statewide basis. The reporting of expenditures for federal reimbursement can be lagged up to eight quarters, which means that the final determination of federal

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Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf

Bureau’s 2017 ACS 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) dataset. 3 The analysis assumes that owner-occupied households reported in the ACS would qualify as homestead properties. 4 The analysis assumes that school district property taxes comprise 70 percent of total property tax reported in the U.S. Census Bureau ACS. November 6, 2019 Page 2  The estimated total amount of funds necessary

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Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf

in March 2019. Your letter requests additional detail regarding the net wage gains displayed in Table 2.6 of the report. Your letter also inquires about reduced work hours and reduced benefits from a higher minimum wage. The attached table presents the gross figures (i.e., the gains prior to any losses) for the tabulations from Table 2.6 of the report. The top portion of the table displays the number of workers who retain employment and their incremental wage gains from

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Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf

reflect the imputation of retirement income (pensions and IRA withdrawals) by the IFO to households that do and do not report the receipt of such income during the year. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS 2  School district property taxes paid: $858 million. 3  County and municipal property taxes paid: $368 million. Revenues reported by PDE and DCED suggest that school district property taxes comprise roughly 70 percent of annual statewide property taxes, while

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RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf

233), 55 to 64 (-3,048) and 65 or older (-5,206). ▪ A net outflow of individuals for returns that reported more than $100,000 of AGI (-4,821) or AGI between $50,000 and $100,000 (-2,363), but a net inflow for returns that reported $10,000 to $50,000 of AGI (2,988). 1 These data generally correspond to tax years 2018 and 2019

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RB-2019-01.pdf

collections, and yields a lower ETR. Endnotes 1. Data from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil and gas production reports and spud well reports from 2013 to 2018 (last accessed January 17, 2019). Production data are currently available through November; December is estimated by

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RB-2017-5.pdf

changes, adjustments are made prior to the rankings to control for such actions. Those adjustments are based on data from reports on state tax actions published by the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), which compiles state tax law changes on an annual basis. Miscellaneous additional revenue adjustments were made by the IFO for certain states based on official state revenue reports. For the purpose of this analysis, only states with populations greater than two million (36 states) are included. 5 States

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

strong income growth, all recorded per capita earnings gains that exceeded 5.0 percent per annum. By contrast, all counties reporting weak income growth reported negative earnings growth, with the exception of Cumberland County, where strong population gains diluted the per capita figures. Independent Fiscal

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PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf

forecasts and analysis depending on requests/data available ▪ Performance Based Budgets (PBB) and Tax Credit reviews ▪ Natural Gas: quarterly production reports, annual impact fee collections January 19, 2022 1 Latest Pennsylvania Demographic Forecast January 19, 2022 2 Age Cohort Number (000s 17,790 $18,520 Note: Millions of dollars. 1 Actuals through FY 2021-22. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO thereafter. For more detail on forecast, see “School District Property Tax

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

6 5.5 1.9 7.4 Sources: Current Population Survey and PA Department of Labor. +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income o Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security o Social Security income meant to be “supplemental.” o

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

and Industry, Center for Workforce Information & Analysis. 15 PA Labor Force Participation Rates 12.May.2016 +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income. • Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. • Wage income less important. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security. • Social Security income meant to

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

614 $29,639 $43,838 Avg Annual Growth -0.6% 4.7% 11.8% Note: Includes wage earners only who report that wage compensation comprises at least 90% of taxable income in both years. Filers do not change filing status. First 884 $39,403 $63,007 Avg Annual Growth -1.4% 4.4% 12.9% Note: Includes wage earners only who report that wage compensation comprises at least 90% of taxable income in both years. Filers do not change filing status. First

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

Meetings with legislative staff to discuss key budget issues and performance measures for Year 1 agencies.  PCCD Results First report scheduled for release.  January 2019 to Early March:  PBB plan submitted to PBB Board members for review and activity, analysis of trends and comparison with selected benchmarks from other states, industry standards, national and regional program reviews, audit reports.  Recommendations for additional/alternative measures and continued development. October 15, 2018 13 October 15, 2018 Implications for FY 2019-

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

0% Note: Figures in 2015 dollars and control for inflation. Per capita amounts are for all consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New 2016-17 Long-Term Living total spending includes $113 million intergovernmental transfer. Source: April 2017 Department of Human Services monthly report and Executive Budget, various years. May 24, 2017 22 Long-Term Imbalance Funding Sources for Senior Programs Avg. Ann. Growth

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf

in federal relief fund allocated to PA since March 2020 | American Rescue Plan ESSER funds require LEAs to measure and report outcomes January 26, 2022 4 PDE Metric Highlights (Continued) Child develop. & early learning enrollments below pre-pandemic levels ▪ Pre-K to less than $0.1 million. AGR Metric Highlights Department-wide data collection could be improved by PAIRS ▪ Pennsylvania Inspection Reporting System | currently being implemented in one bureau ▪ System could create efficiencies related to electronic processing in multiple bureaus Inspector efficiency

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

despite a decline in fee revenues. Endnotes 1. Data from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil and gas production reports and spud well reports from 2013 to 2017 (last accessed January 25, 2018). Production data are currently available through November; December is estimated by

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

percent), which both reduce the ETR. Endnotes 1. Data from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil and gas production reports and spud well reports from 2011 to 2016 (last accessed January 18, 2017). Production data are currently available through November; December is estimated by

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND November Retail Sales An article by the Wall Street Journal reports that November retail sales, excluding motor vehicle and gasoline sales, remained steady compared to October 2019. Within retail sales, the the prior year. Spending in bars and restaurants also realized a decline compared to the prior month. However, the article reports that online holiday sales increased by 14% over the prior year. U.S. Demographic Trends May Limit Job Expansion A

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

STAND Women Drive 80% of Job Growth in Health Care since 2000 On August 14, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of full-time, non-seasonal health care workers grew from 5 million to 9 million since 2000 magnitude. For additional detail on 2019 Q2 pro- duction trends in Pennsylvania, see the IFO’s latest Natural Gas Production Report. Consumer Debt Grows 4.3% On August 13, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released U.S. consumer debt

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

June 2018 - National News U.S. Job Openings Exceed the Number of Jobless On June 5, the Wall Street Journal reported that the seasonally adjusted number of job openings was 6.7 million in April, while 6.3 million Americans were tight labor market conditions, many business owners claim they are struggling to find qualified employees to fill job openings and report upward pressure on wages and salaries. U.S. Corporate Profits Increase 4.3% in 2018 Q1 On May 30, the

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

Tariffs Have Disparate Impacts on PA Counties On July 6, the Wall Street Journal published an analysis based on a report from Moody’s that computes the impact of new U.S. and Chinese tariffs. The analysis shows the share of For filers with adjusted gross income (AGI) between $100,000 and $1 million, capital gains increased 44.9%. For filers reporting more than $1 million of AGI, capital gains increased 32.2%. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index increased by

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

6.0% 0.2% 3.3% 6.0% 0.2% Source: Executive Budgets, various years and IFO five-year outlook reports. Includes $595 million for higher education funding. October 19, 2017 20 Pensions: Employer Contribution Rates 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2017 Act 120 of 2010 2018 Unfunded Liability ~$67 billion Assumed Rate of Return: 7.25% Source: Consolidated Annual Financial Reports and Actuarial Valuations for SERS and PSERS, various years. FY 2017-18 October 19, 2017 21 Gaming Revenue Growth Decelerates

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

for the year. Non-motor sales and use tax (SUT) collections were unexpectedly flat in January, in spite of retailer reports of strong holiday sales. Motor vehicle SUT collections came in as expected, but are $16 million short of estimate for Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

a significant federal income tax rate cut. The IFO’s official estimate assumed that most of that income would be reported in 2017, and would have a positive impact on FY 2017-18 revenues. Currently, it is unclear if federal income Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

2 Average annual growth rate from 2012Q1 to 2017Q1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 See Monthly Trends Report June 2017 for more information. http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/releases. cfm?type=1. 2 The Wall Street Journal Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

the New York Mercantile Exchange, upon which the Impact Fee schedule is based. Impact Fee collections in millions of dollars, reported by the PUC, with 2021 estimated by the IFO. Average Fee Per Well computed by the IFO. March 31, 2022 3 2021 $233.8 7,567 $2.35 $17,835.4 1.3 Notes: 1 Fees in millions of dollars, reported by the PUC. 2021 is estimated by the IFO. 2 Production data from DEP, in billion cubic feet. 3 Weighted

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 blank. - FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 blank. - FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- blank. - FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly esti- mates for Motor License and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

Automotive and other vehicle dealers (14.4%), building materials and supplies (23.4%) and health and personal care (7.8%) reported strong growth. Food service (-13.7%) and clothing (-12.0%) remain weak relative to September 2019. Pennsylvania Personal Income Grows contract as the decennial Census concludes. Overall, the private sector recorded modest employment gains, while the government and education sectors reported accelerating losses which coincides with the start of the school year. Monthly Economic Update October 2020 Monthly Data Jun-20

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

Low, but Employment Growth Decelerates On August 21, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July state employment report. The data reveal that by July, nearly one-half (529,100, not seasonally adjusted) of the year-over-year (YOY small businesses open and small business revenues in the United States each decreased by 19.1%. The largest declines were reported in the leisure and hospitality (-32.2% open, -47.5% revenue) and retail and transportation (-17.8% open, -14.1%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

economic growth metric and is defined as the percentage change in output per hour worked for nonfarm businesses. The WSJ reported that U.S. worker productivity showed strong growth in 2020 after a decade of modest gains. Due to the COVID- productivity gains. Another key growth metric is the labor force participation rate (LFPR). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in this rate from 63.3% in February 2020 to 61.5% in March 2021. For Pennsylvania, the

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Letter_to_JSGC.pdf

with your office, the IFO agreed to provide technical analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment The following alterations were made to the IFO’s original submission to JSGC. The page numbers refer to the final report issued on March 1, 2017. The IFO’s original submission has been posted to the IFO website. Pages 64 and

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. The Public Utility Commission (PUC) recently reported collections of $173.3 million for calendar year (CY) 2016 (remitted in April 2017), which was a moderate decline from production costs. 2 Market value at the wellhead. Does not include natural gas liquids (NGLs). For 2016, NGL production, as reported by DEP, would raise the market value by roughly $88 million prior to the deduction of post‐production costs. 2016

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

more comprehensive analysis of the proposed higher minimum wage from the Executive Budget in late March or early April. That report will also include an analysis of the combined reporting and personal income tax revenue proposals. Thank you. I would be happy to answer any questions that you may have

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IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf

would likely be significant under this proposal. May 16, 2022 Page 2 School District Cash Balances According to annual financial reports filed with the Pennsylvania Department of Education, the total school district unassigned fund balance for fiscal year ending 2020 was billion. For fiscal year ending 2021, the unassigned fund balance increased to $2.207 billion. Both years include school districts reporting negative unassigned fund balances. If you have any questions regarding this information, please do not hesitate to contact my office

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

to business taxes  15 states reduce corporate net income rate (3 increase)  7 states have enacted mandatory combined reporting  19 reduce personal income tax rate on pass-throughs (9 increase) Intense competition for increasingly mobile businesses  Tax 19-20. assumes no one-time shifts new SUT transfer Summary and Outlook Structural deficit lower than last year’s report  Roughly $500 million lower by final year  Pick up from FY 18-19 revenue gains (sales, corporate net

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Dunbar asked about the number of states that currently use incremental budgeting. According to a report issued by The National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) in August of 2015, incremental budgeting is the primary budget of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available for further discussion with your committee once that report has been released. Thank you for the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

This project has been undertaken by the IFO as a Research Brief and will be released as a stand-alone report later this spring. As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, the office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available for further discussion with your committee once that report is released. Thank you for the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions, please

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Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdf

as New York and Connecticut. Pennsylvania’s emission rate was comparable to Virginia, Maryland and North Carolina. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. State 2010 2019 2010 2019 2010 2019 New York 137.0

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Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdf

significant shift from coal to natural gas in the state’s electricity generation mix over that period. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. State 2016 2021 2016 Ratio 2021 Ratio Massachusetts 19.00 22

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

FY) 2015-16 forecast, and (2) an advance estimate for FY 2016-17. The office also will release an updated report on Pennsylvania’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, originally released on December 9 th , details the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures

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Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf

not individual level) from the computation. For this analysis, the IFO utilized three data sources, which are as follows: • Annual report on referendum exceptions, published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE). This report includes amounts of approved exceptions by type and the total amount of used exceptions. These data show that prior to

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2001_hr266.pdf

26 Pennsylvania's pension system, the House of Representatives 27 direct the Public Employee Retirement Commission to study and 28 report on the following: 29 (1) Projections of comparative benefits under the 30 current DB plans versus possible DC plans and Public Employee Retirement 5 Commission upon request; and be it further 6 RESOLVED, That the Public Employee Retirement Commission 7 report its findings concerning the provision of a DC option in 8 Pennsylvania's Statewide pension funds to the General Assembly

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

EHB More ACA implementation coming… • Delivery system reforms – Value based purchasing demonstrations – Medical homes – Health homes – ACOs – Team care – Quality reporting 18 State Implementation Priorities 1. Be strategic with the insurance exchange 2. Regulate the commercial health insurance market effectively 3

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SR2017-06.pdf

Education. Calculations by the IFO. 1 The assessed value share is weighted by 2015 county real estate tax collections as reported by the Department of Community and Economic Development. 2 Totals are not supplied because they would not be meaningful due

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SR2017-05.pdf

Counties 12,614,114 6,844,323 54 3,018,274 2,268 3 Based on the number of homesteads reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education for FY 2015-16 Act 1 Property Tax Reduction Allocations. Philadelphia data adjusted based

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf

2026-27 are based on the current services methodology and underlying data described in the IFO’s Five- Year Outlook Report. Projected growth rates are a function of (1) service populations, (2) inflation and (3) various technical factors (e.g., an

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Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf

of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available for further discussion with your committee once that report has been released. Thank you for the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions

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RTR-May 2012.pdf

Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through May 2012 May Percent May Percent 2012 2011 2011 2011 May Percent 2012 Change a

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RTR-Mar 2012.pdf

Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through March 2012 March Percent March Percent 2011 2011 2011 2011 March Percent 2012 Change a

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RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf

Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through June 2012 June Percent June Percent 2012 2011 2011 2011 June Percent 2012 Change a

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RTR-Feb 2012.pdf

Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through February 2012 February Percent February Percent 2011 2011 2011 2011 February Percent 2012 Change a

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RTR-Apr 2012.pdf

Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through April 2012 April Percent April Percent 2012 2011 2011 2011 April Percent 2012 Change a

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RTR-2015-04.pdf

277.3 $1,223.6 $516.3 $1,275.7 8.5% 5.2% 5.8% 4.5% Revenue Trends Report April 2015 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) April Percent April Percent 2015 Change 1 2015 Change 1

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RTR-2015-03.pdf

Revenue Total $125.3 $946.3 $200.6 $855.8 3.1% 4.7% 2.5% 3.0% Revenue Trends Report March 2015 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) March Percent March Percent 2015 Change 1 2015 Change 1

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RTR-2015-02.pdf

113.8 $821.1 $362.6 $731.3 percent change 7.1% 5.1% 5.8% 2.6% Revenue Trends Report February 2015 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) February Percent February Percent 2015 Change 1 2015 Change 1

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RTR-2015-01.pdf

38.4 $707.3 $287.1 $621.8 percent change -1.6% 4.9% 4.5% 2.2% Revenue Trends Report January 2015 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) January Percent January Percent 2015 Change 1 2015 Change 1

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RTR-2014-09.pdf

159.5 $276.0 $276.0 $235.2 percent change 6.6% 4.6% 4.6% 0.8% Revenue Trends Report September 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) September Percent September Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1

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RTR-2014-08.pdf

33.1 $116.5 $320.5 $78.2 percent change 1.9% 3.2% 5.1% 0.3% Revenue Trends Report August 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) August Percent August Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1

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RTR-2014-06.pdf

204.0 $30.9 -$90.5 $30.9 percent change 7.9% 0.1% -1.1% 0.1% Revenue Trends Report June 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) June Percent June Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1

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RTR-2014-05.pdf

152.0 -$173.1 -$293.7 -$252.1 percent change -7.7% -0.7% -3.1% -0.9% Revenue Trends Report May 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) May Percent May Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1

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RTR-2014-04.pdf

142.6 -$21.1 -$137.5 $34.0 percent change -4.2% -0.1% -1.5% 0.1% Revenue Trends Report April 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) April Percent April Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1

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RTR-2014-03.pdf

0.8 $121.4 $14.2 $338.9 percent change 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% Revenue Trends Report March 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions March Percent March Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change

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RTR-2014-02.pdf

4.3 $120.6 -$39.1 $411.6 percent change 0.3% 0.8% -0.6% 1.5% Revenue Trends Report February 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions February Percent February Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change

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RTR-2014-01.pdf

9.2 $116.3 -$9.5 $322.1 percent change 0.4% 0.8% -0.1% 1.2% Revenue Trends Report January 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions January Percent January Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change

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RTR-2013-12.pdf

52.5 $107.2 $35.5 $488.7 percent change -2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 1.8% Revenue Trends Report December 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions December Percent December Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change

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RTR-2013-11.pdf

33.9 $159.7 $90.4 $698.6 percent change 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 2.5% Revenue Trends Report November 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions November Percent November Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

outlook for CY 2023 ▪ Solid wage growth but flat non-wage income (profits, divs, capital gains) May 23, 2022 20 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us May 23, 2022 21 CreationDate: 2022-05-

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

new entrants accept lower wages? ▪ How many UC recipients attempt to re-enter when benefits expire? May 26, 2021 21 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us May 26, 2021 22 CreationDate: 2021-05-

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY15-16 and its official revenue estimate for FY16-17. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf

A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY14-15 and its official revenue estimate for FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY13-14 and its official revenue estimate for FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

profits of sole proprietors, self-employed, partnerships and S corporations, capital gains and dividends) reflect most other income that is reported on the Pennsylvania personal income tax return. Corporate profits reflect all U.S. corporations because estimates are not published for

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf

over the prior year. Both revenue sources had healthy growth rates over the three and twelve month periods. Revenue Trends Report July 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions July Percent July Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf

Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) January 2012 January Percent January Percent 2011 2011 2011 2011 January Percent 2012 Change a 2012

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf

29.9 $69.3 -$9.7 $868.7 percent change -1.7% 1.9% -0.2% 3.2% Revenue Trends Report August 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions Aug. Percent Aug. Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

Services. 7 Estimated PTRR funding attributable to recipients age 65 and older is based on Department of Revenue PTRR statistical report data. 6 Includes MA - Long-Term Care, MA - Community HealthChoices, MA - Home and Community-Based Services and MA - Long-Term

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf

reflect the imputation of retirement income (pensions and IRA withdrawals) by the IFO to households that do and do not report the receipt of such income during the year. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf

reflect the imputation of retirement income (pensions and IRA withdrawals) by the IFO to households that do and do not report the receipt of such income during the year. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS

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Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf

Response-Letter-05-10-2019.pdf. 3 See the Department of Revenue’s 2017 Property Tax/Rent Rebate Program Statistical Report: https://www.revenue.pa.gov/GeneralTaxInformation/News%20and%20Statistics/ReportsStats/PTRR/GenAssembly/ Documents/2019_ptrr_report.pdf. Author: Charlene Raves Creator: Microsoft® Word 2016

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RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf

able to receive those meals for at least a part of a month. For the most recent school year, schools report to the Department of Human Services if they were closed for at least 5 consecutive days during a month. If

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RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf

Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. LFPR is (employed + unemployed) / residents age 16+. Adjusted LFPRs exclude age 75+. See IFO Demographics Report for more detail (October 2022). Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Impact of Demographic Trends on the State Labor Force The

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than taxable income reported on the state personal income tax return because it includes Social Security income and employer contributions to pension accounts. However

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RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf

may be used to offset the initial program reduction. 8 See the IFO’s Department of Transportation Performance-Based Budget Report. Figure 2 State Gas Tax Revenue and Consumption Source: DOR and various Governor's Executive Budget documents. Note: Years are

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RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf

Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 2021 Q3 data for the U.S. employer cost index (ECI, wage compensation only) and the U.S. Bureau of

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

income for 2016 due to an unusually high, one-time value for proprietors’ income in that year. For 2016, the reported value was replaced with an interpolation using the 2015 and 2017 data points. The adjusted data point is consistent with

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

 The All Other category includes agriculture, other services, transportation and energy firms, as well as firms that did not report an industry or sector. 1 The original $349 billion of loans under the CARES Act was later expanded by $320

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

All requests require supporting documentation in order to gauge the progress and validity of costs, as well as Construction Monitoring Reports conducted by state-assigned consultants. Only after all conditions are met will a request be approved for payment, pending fund

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QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf

end of each quarter. This document provides preliminary results for the General Fund prior to the publication of the full report. For the first quarter of FY 2015-16, General Fund revenues were $74 million above estimate. The following bullets briefly

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QRE_FY15-16.pdf

Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2015. The Independent Fiscal Office will prepare quarterly reports to compare actual collections to these estimates. Table 1 FY 2015-16 General Fund Revenue Estimates ($ millions) 2015 Q3 2015

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Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf

influence the long-term economic outlook for Pennsylvania: (1) the composition of job creation; and (2) trends in household formation. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

Background and Overview Independent Fiscal Office started September 2011.  Provide budget projections: November, May/June and January.  Special reports at request of General Assembly. First: Provide some context on property taxes.  School district reliance on property tax. 

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

0 -369 -383 -396 -388 CNIT – Tax Rate Reduction 3 -280 -965 -1,144 -1,261 -1,324 CNIT – Combined Reporting 0 366 276 261 273 Total Tax Relief -280 -4,152 -4,435 -4,580 -4,624 Dollar amounts are

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

 Wage income less important. Larger share of income not subject to tax: Social Security, Pensions, IRAs.  Age 65+ reports 21% of income on federal tax returns, much of it nontaxable. Sales and Use Tax.  Elderly buy fewer durable

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

deferrals of expenditures.  Loans or short-term revenue boosts. Post-Recession Budgets 10.Feb.2017 3 November 2016 IFO Report 10.Feb.2017 4 15-16 16-17 17-18 … 21-22 Beginning Balance $257 $2 -- -- Available Revenue 29,652

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

see note) 3.4% 4.1% 3.0% 5.1% 5.4% 4.7% 2.9% Non-Motor Sales (as reported) 4.7% 5.2% 3.8% 5.1% 8.8% 7.1% 6.1% Motor Vehicle Sales -0.9% 4

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

552 Total 13,390 13,714 14,136 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Annual Financial Reports. 14 June.05.2018 Most Recent Forecast – Jan 2018 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

best, 50 is worst. Rankings do not average to the total. States without a tax rank equally as 1. The report shows tax systems as of July 1, 2017 (FY 2017-18). These data are shown for informational purposes only, and

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Request_May_4_2021.pdf

of Performance through Excellence NAP Tax Credit Awards by Region for FY 2019-20 Source: Reprinted from DCED's annual report on the Neighborhood Assistance Program. County Awards County Awards Lancaster.......................................... $1,520.2 Warren............................................. $154.5 Lebanon............................................ 841.4 Clinton

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf

in federal relief fund allocated to PA since March 2020 | American Rescue Plan ESSER funds require LEAs to measure and report outcomes March 9, 2022 4 PDE Metric Highlights (Continued) Child develop. & early learning enrollments below pre-pandemic levels ▪ Pre-K

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf

65 waiting for meals January 25, 2022 4 PDA Metric Highlights (Continued) From FY 16-17 to FY 20-21, Reports of Need (RONs) up 39% in 60+ pop ▪ Investigations increased 70% | substantiated abuse or neglect cases up 91% ▪ Pandemic impacted

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf

Act 57-2020 establishes database of local police officer separation records ▪ Key measures to monitor: # LEAs enrolled | # Officer separation records | # Reports filed for hires with negative separation records April 28, 2021 5 Department of Military and Veterans Affairs (DMVA) April 28

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf

attributable solely to the tax credit to reimburse the state ▪ This is a large amount of activity (see Appendix to reports) Net ROI deducts impacts from alternate uses (e.g., spending) ▪ Net ROI = Gross ROI – impact from gov’t spending or

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PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf

Education by May 16, 2022 with the following recommendations: 1. Include citations for PDE data from specific public files or reports 2. Correct the calculations for school district expenditures per student by subtracting charter school tuition payments and charter school average

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

0% Notes: Figures in 2015 dollars and control for inflation. Per capita amounts are for all consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

are preliminary and compares to a no-pandemic scenario. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Widely Reported Worker Shortage Several factors could be relevant, but extra weekly benefits are key ▪ School is out | vaccinations available to nearly

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Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf

The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf

The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf

The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf

The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining agreements. ◦ Special studies at request of General Assembly. Dec.13.2017 2

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

falling 38.3% (-12,143) from 2018. By comparison, domestic out- migration changed from -20,731 to -19,588. IRS Reports Negative Net Domestic Migration from 2017 to 2018 The IRS also recently released state migration data for 2017 to 2018

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NewsStand_2019_September.pdf

be out of the labor force than men in the first cohort. Additionally, the study found that the first cohort reported health issues (51%) and incarceration (24%) as reasons for not working at higher rates than the second cohort (41% and

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

which is considered prime working age. June 2019 National News College Enrollment Declines On May 30, the Wall Street Journal reported that Spring 2019 college enrollment declined by 300,000 (-1.7%) nationwide. Four-year, for-profit college enrollment had the

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

off thereafter. The CBO also revised its projection for real GDP to reflect recent changes in federal tax policy. (Full Report) Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this winter were given to

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

sales for the rest of the year.  The 3-month PIT withholding growth rate is consistent with recent job reports, which have shown a decel- eration of net job creation for June through August.  Unexpectedly low mortgage rates continue

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

of the year.  The 3-month PIT withholding growth rate continues to exhibit strength despite the weak July jobs report.  The 3-month realty transfer tax growth rate continues to recover from a sharp decline in March 2019. Unex-

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

056 $802 Growth 0.8% 6.4% -68.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | June 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

977 $803 Growth 0.9% 6.8% -67.5% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | May 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

394 $769 Growth 0.5% 6.9% -68.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | April 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

221 $528 Growth -2.1% 5.2% -76.6% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | March 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

792 $405 Growth -3.6% 5.7% -81.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | February 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

781 $374 Growth 4.5% 5.7% -31.2% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | January 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

915 $356 Growth 7.3% 6.7% 41.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | December 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

103 $262 Growth 8.3% 8.2% 16.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | November 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

924 $104 Growth 10.1% 9.9% 34.3% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | October 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

that are based on the duration of business closures in Pennsylvania. If you would like to be notified when the report is released, please visit www.ifo.state.pa.us to be added to the IFO’s mailing list. FY 2019-

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

intentionally left blank. - FY 2022-23 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2022-23 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates of General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates are based on

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

of Residence of 2.6% for the Philadelphia metro region, revealing a growing divergence between annual growth in rental prices reported by online marketplaces and those reflected in the CPI data. (See table above.) Under normal conditions, rents are less volatile

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

455,000 from Prior Year On March 15, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January state employment report. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest job gains occurred in the education sector (excludes elementary and secondary school employment

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Turnpike Traffic Declined 26 Percent in 2020 For 2020, the Pennsylvania Turnpike reports a total of 118.5 million vehicle trips, a decline of 26.0%, or 41.6 million fewer trips than

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

48,124 (4.5%) renter households will owe $224 million in rent, an average of $4,663 per household. A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association finds that rental property owners lost approximately $9.2 billion in 2020 Q3 revenue from

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

recent WSJ article highlights the impact of COVID-19 on March consumer prices. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI-U dropped 0.4% in March (seasonally adjusted) compared to the prior month. The energy (-5.8%

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

2.6% 1.7% 3.7% 3.9% 0.9% Note: Based on data from all consumers with a credit report. All Other includes personal loans and other miscellaneous lines of credit. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total consumer debt

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Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf

Post-Employment Benefits. 1 Pew “50-State Survey of Retiree Health Care Liabilities“, Figure 4. 3 Individual State Pension System Reports/CAFRs for FYE 16. 4 State employees under the general state employee plan (not specific to law enforcement, teachers, etc

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Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf

A firm that sells a four-year old vehicle with a fair market value of $10,000 would need to report a $10,000 gain if no basis remained. However, if the firm exchanges the used vehicle for a new $40

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Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdf

The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Tuesday, May 26 Time: 10:00 AM

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

growth.  Data suggest material income shifting from 2016 to 2017. Factors That Restrain Revenues 7 02.May.2017 Income Reported on PA Returns -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Capital Gains

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Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2022.pdf

FY 2022-23. The presentation will review and discuss recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Monday, May 23 Time: 1:30 PM R

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Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdf

The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. www.ifo.state.pa.us Creator: Canva Producer

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IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf

Model assumes that every dollar of RGGI revenue invested would leverage $2.52 of private investment. (Source: Pennsylvania RGGI Modeling Report, September 2020.) Model also assumes a 3.57 kwh savings per dollar of revenue spending on energy efficiency. • Potential material

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IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf

point of sale. Since location data are not available for fuel purchases, the IFO utilized a Pennsylvania Department of Transportation report on miles traveled by county to project local SUT based on the statewide estimate at the 6% rate. Notes: In

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IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf

790 18,520 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. 1 Actuals through FY 2021-22. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO thereafter. Table 1 Estimate Forecast School District Property Tax Forecast Rate

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IFO_Public_Briefing_May_2018_19.pdf

release updated revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2017-18 and 2018-19. The session is open to the public. The report will be posted to the office website at the start of the briefing. Updated Revenue Estimates www.ifo.state.pa

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

17,790 $18,520 Note: Millions of dollars. 1 Actuals through FY 2021-22. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO thereafter. School District Property Tax Growth Rates November 16, 2021 10

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IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf

economic and statistical principles, practices and techniques to design and complete research on fiscal and economic issues; 3) prepares regular reports on the economy and state revenues; and 4) drafts text and prepares data tables and graphs for presentations and published

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

614 $29,639 $43,838 Avg Annual Growth -0.6% 4.7% 11.8% Note: Includes wage earners only who report that wage compensation comprises at least 90% of taxable income in both years. Filers do not change filing status. First

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

FY 2022-23, the IFO had projected $41.3 billion in General Fund expenditures in its latest five-year outlook report (November 2021). That amount is for illustrative purposes only and will change based on current budget negotiations. However, a few

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House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdf

FY 2020-21. Estimated at $535 thereafter. 2 Actuals unavailable for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO throughout. Source: Actuals reported by PDE. All forecasts by IFO (Feb 2021). Potential School Property Tax Replacement Revenues August 30, 2021 2 22-23

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House_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf

Representative Bullock requested data on job loss and recovery by race. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Workforce Indicators reports quarterly employment figures by state and various demographic characteristics. The attached table summarizes the latest data for Pennsylvania employment by

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FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf

the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent? ▪ Submit reviews to Performance-Based Budget Board ▪ Annual legislative hearing | Administrating agency included ▪ Reports available on the IFO website Key Points ▪ Goals and purposes must be established ▪ Include a comparison of similar programs in

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Annual Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Report and both presentations will be posted to IFO website at conclusion. ▪ Questions will be addressed at end of each presentation

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Welcome to the Annual Five-Year Outlook Report to be posted at IFO website at end of presentation Both presentations run ~45 minutes – questions at end Purpose: provide

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force participation rates reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus from PA Labor Force

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

2022-23, which was issued by the Independent Fiscal Office on November 16, 2017. The employer rates used in that report were based on projections provided by PSERS prior to the release of the most recent actuarial valuation. In addition to

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

320 1,336 434 131 26 -120 Notes: figures in dollar millions. Represents change between January 2016 and November 2016 reports. A negative figure indicates an increase in the projected deficit. 11/15/2016 36 Impact of Recent Policy Changes 11

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

detail. Wrap Up Executive Budget relies on policy options, funding shifts and one-time measures to close gap  Combined reporting ($240 million) | Minimum wage ($133 million)  State Police Fee ($136 million)  Unclear whether they will be enacted Various

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

spending patterns | less travel/tourism  Acceleration of on-line purchases Key dates to watch  August 21: July jobs report for Pennsylvania  Mid-September: 3 rd PIT estimated payment (first two down ~9% YOY) August 19, 2020 5 IFO

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf

click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the virtual briefing. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf

The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to

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DotPlotData.xlsx

gov/Teachers%20-%20Administrators/School%20Finances/Finances/AFR%20Data%20Summary/Pages/AFR-Data-Detailed-.aspx D. PDE Website, Public Schools Percent of Low-Income Reports, 2018-2019 Public Schools Percent Low Income. https://www.education.pa.gov/DataAndReporting/LoanCanLowIncome/Pages/PublicSchools.aspx E. Data provided

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Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf

floor conference center of Harrisburg University, 326 Market Street. The session is open to the public. After the briefing, a report discussing the revenue projections and Pennsylvania’s economic outlook will be available on the IFO’s website at www.ifo

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

private plans, generally unlike other countries). Higher earnings assumption: •Keeps contributions lower in the short run, attractive of course •Keeps reported liabilities lower, also attractive •Riskier assets needed to support higher assumptions •Investment risk is taken by pension plans but borne

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Announcement_2021.pdf

will inflation remain elevated? Does any pent-up demand remain from unspent federal stimulus? The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends

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2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

year 2021 but received as a refund in CY 2022. Estimates for PA assume state is 4% of US total reported on tax return. SNAP emergency allotments end Feb 2023 ~$100 per person monthly, 1.9m residents ~$1.0 billion refundable

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Dollars in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for a $2.19 billion one-time transfer. Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us January 31, 2022 22 CreationDate: 2022-01-

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2019-Pub-2.pdf

and Technology Conference Center, 14th Floor 326 Market Street, Harrisburg PA The IFO will present the results from its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends

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2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Presenter: Ray Landis, Advocacy Manager AARP Pennsylvania Presentation on retirement insecurity and the challenges facing Baby Boomers as they retire. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-

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Pensions

actuarial notes issued by the former Public Employee Retirement Commission (PERC) also will be listed. Actuarial Notes Legislation Enacted Special Reports Retirement Legislation Database IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Feb 01) The Commonwealth collected $3.57 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $23.7 million compared… • (Jan 31) The IFO presented a mid-year update on the economic and revenue outlook for the Commonwealth. The presentation has… • (Jan 30) The IFO will present its mid-year update on the economic and revenue outlook for the Commonwealth on January 31 at… Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0 msapplication-TileColor: #ffffff msapplication-config

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Pensions

IFO - Pensions IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Pensions Special Reports Issued by the Independent Fiscal Office Issued by the Public Employee Retirement Commission Funding and Reforming Public Employee Retirement Systems

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Pensions

IFO - Pensions IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Pensions Database Search Database Search - 0 Results genReport Generate Report • Search Form • Results Bill # Subject Printer # Sponsor Synopsis IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Feb 01) The Commonwealth collected $3.57 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $23.7 million compared… • (Jan 31) The IFO presented a mid-year update on the economic and revenue outlook for the Commonwealth. The presentation has… • (Jan 30) The IFO will present its mid-year update on the economic and revenue outlook for the Commonwealth on January 31 at… Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0

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Pensions

study to be completed by December 31, 2015, on certain aspects of the pension provisions of the act, and to report the findings of such study to the General Assembly and to the Governor. • Prohibited the use of pension obligation bonds

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Pensions

Public School Employes' Retirement System Scranton City State Employees' Retirement System (Hold Ctrl to select multiple items) Legislative Subject Actuarial Reporting Administrative Expenses Administrative Operations Alternative Retirement Plans Cost of Living Adjustments Disability Retirement Benefits Early Retirement Benefits Early Retirement Windows

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Email Subscription

IFO - Email Subscription IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Email Subscription The IFO sends emails periodically to alert subscribers to new studies or reports that have been posted to the website. To begin receiving emails, please fill out the following form and click on

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