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Presentation on Combined Reporting Director Matt Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Finance Committee on combined reporting. Tags: combined, presentation, reporting
Economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products. Tags: economic, plastics, report
Natural Gas Production report: 2024 Q3 This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. 12/03/2024
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $22.0 billion in General Fund revenues (1.8%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year). 11/27/2024
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/14/2024
Economic and Budget Outlook The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2024-25 to FY 2029-30 on November 14 at 1:30 pm. The report will include an assessment of the General Fund surplus ($6.6 billion at end of FY 23-24) and Rainy Day Fund ($7.0 billion) under current law and policies. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 11/05/2024
2024 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2024-25 to 2029-30 in November 2024.   10/24/2024
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2024-25 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2024 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2024-25 state budget. 08/23/2024
Stadium Economic Impact report: Philadelphia Phillies The IFO performed an analysis that measured the 2023 economic footprint attributable to the Philadelphia Phillies’ Major League Baseball (MLB) operations at Citizens Bank Park. The analysis finds that economic activity related to team operations and fan spending generated $970 million in statewide spending, supported 5,400 full-time equivalent jobs, and $45 million in state taxes. Press Release 07/10/2024
Stadium Economic Impact report: Pittsburgh Pirates The IFO performed an analysis that measured the 2023 economic footprint attributable to the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Major League Baseball (MLB) operations at PNC Park. The analysis finds that economic activity related to team operations and fan spending generated $546 million in statewide spending, supported 3,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and $22 million in state taxes. Press Release 07/10/2024
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past twelve budget cycles. For FY 2023-24, actual collections exceeded IFO projections by 0.6%, or $273 million. 07/09/2024
School District Property Tax Forecast The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report projects revenues and the Act 1 index through FY 2025-26 and provides an overview of recent trends in school district funding. 06/19/2024
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2024-25 The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2024-25. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.  05/20/2024
Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Monday, May 20th at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2023-24 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2024-25. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 05/13/2024
Sports, Marketing & Tourism Series: 2023 Ironman PA Happy Valley Triathlon The IFO published an economic impact report for the Ironman 70.3 Pennsylvania Happy Valley Triathlon in Centre County (July 2023). The analysis finds that economic activity related to the event generated over $4.7 million in statewide spending, supported 30 full-time equivalent jobs, and $238,000 in select state and local taxes. 04/04/2024
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget released February 2024. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 03/28/2024
Pennsylvania Electricity Update This report utilizes data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to display recent trends for the Pennsylvania and regional electricity markets. The report examines recent trends in net generation, net exports, CO2 emissions and prices. 03/07/2024
Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS’ baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-52, the Commonwealth will use $53.0 billion in General Fund revenues (2.7%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of assumptions. 02/28/2024
State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, CCH AnswerConnect and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the level of per capita state and local taxes across states (unadjusted and adjusted for price differentials) and (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property). 02/14/2024
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised monthly General Fund revenue estimates for FY 2023-24 based on projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023 (includes adjustments released with the original monthly estimates in August 2023) adjusted to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget in December 2023. 01/29/2024
Tax Credits and Economic Development Incentives This report presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2023-24 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The report also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. 01/09/2024
2023 Impact Fee Estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2023 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2024). Collections are estimated to be $174.0 million, a decrease of $104.8 million from the prior year. 12/13/2023
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $24.9 billion in General Fund revenues (2.0%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year). 12/01/2023
Act 1 Index Reaches New High The Act 1 index limits the annual increase in school district millage rates. For FY 24-25, PDE recently certified an all-time high value (5.3%). This report examines the factors that drive that outcome and provides projections through FY 28-29. 11/28/2023
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.   11/15/2023
2023 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 in November 2023. 10/19/2023
Summary of Tax Credit Reviews New IFO report highlights findings from the 20 tax credit reviews published during the first five-year evaluation cycle (2019 to 2023). 10/10/2023
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023. 08/30/2023
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eleven budget cycles. 08/10/2023
Presentation on Combined reporting Director Matt Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Finance Committee on combined reporting. 06/29/2023
School District Property Tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2027-28, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 06/28/2023
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2023-24 The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 05/24/2023
Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Wednesday, May 24th at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2022-23 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2023-24. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 05/17/2023
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2023-24 Executive Budget released March 2023. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 05/03/2023
Expiration of the Enhanced FMAP The IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after. The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout. 04/06/2023
March 2023 Monthly Economic Update The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 03/21/2023
Natural Gas Production report, 2022Q4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  03/02/2023
Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51, the Commonwealth will use $46.5 billion in General Fund revenues (2.3%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions. 03/01/2023
State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 02/21/2023
JANUARY 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/25/2023
Economic and Budget Outlook Presentation The IFO presented results from its five-year outlook report published in November 2022. 01/24/2023
Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit report. 01/05/2023
Manufacturing Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Manufacturing Tax Credit report. 01/05/2023
Pennsylvania Insurance Department Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department. Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023.  The report was reposted on January 18, 2023 to correct a single year of data on page 14.   01/05/2023
Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit report. The report was amended on February 17, 2023 to include updates to Table 3.1 on page 14. Following publication of the RJITC report, the IFO became aware of a data discrepancy contained within a referenced study. As a result, the RJITC report was updated to exclude references to the “Evaluation of Alabama’s Entertainment Industry Incentive Program and New Markets Development Program” on February 23, 2023. 01/05/2023
Waterfront Development Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Waterfront Development Tax Credit report. 01/05/2023
Unemployment Compensation by AGI The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds. 12/21/2022
December 2022 Monthly Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/20/2022
Natural Gas Production report, 2022Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  12/05/2022
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions. 12/01/2022
November 2022 Monthly Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends.  11/21/2022
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2022
Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/02/2022
2022 Impact Fee Estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2022 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2023). Collections are estimated to be $274.8 million, an increase of $40.4 million from the prior year. 10/31/2022
Where Did the Workers Go? This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.   10/25/2022
October 2022 Monthly Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. 10/24/2022
REVENUE ESTIMATE PERFORMANCE This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past ten budget cycles. 10/12/2022
2022 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28. 10/05/2022
SEPTEMBER 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/19/2022
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. 09/01/2022
August 2022 Monthly Economic Update The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/22/2022
Natural Gas Production report, 2022Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  08/18/2022
School District Property Tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues  and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 08/15/2022
July 2022 Monthly Economic Update The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  07/25/2022
JUNE 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  06/16/2022
Natural Gas Production report, 2022Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/26/2022
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2022-23 The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 05/23/2022
May 2022 Monthly Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  05/19/2022
Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Monday, May 23rd at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2021-22 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2022-23. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 05/16/2022
Department of Human Services - Part 3 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3).  Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022.   The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10.    05/04/2022
Department of Education Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education. Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16. The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022. The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022.  04/27/2022
Department of Aging Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging. Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1.  04/26/2022
April 2022 Monthly Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  04/12/2022
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2022-23 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/08/2022
March 2022 Monthly Economic Update The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  03/18/2022
Natural Gas Production report, 2021Q4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 02/22/2022
February 2022 Monthly Economic Update The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  02/09/2022
Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit report. 01/20/2022
Brewers' Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Brewers’ Tax Credit report. 01/20/2022
Educational Tax Credits Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Educational Tax Credits report. 01/20/2022
Department of Agriculture Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.  Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture. Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022.   The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21.   01/20/2022
Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit report. 01/20/2022
STATE AND LOCAL TAX REVENUES: A 50 STATE COMPARISON This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 01/19/2022
2021 Impact Fee Estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2021 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2022). Collections are estimated to be $233.8 million, an increase of $87.6 million from the prior year. 01/18/2022
January 2022 Monthly Economic News The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/17/2022
December 2021 Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/07/2021
Natural Gas Production report, 2021Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 11/22/2021
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations. 11/15/2021
2021 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27. 11/15/2021
November 2021 Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 11/10/2021
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's updated forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2020-21 to FY 2025-26. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019-20 current-year property tax collections, (2) the impact from FY 2021-22 millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 Index projection. 11/08/2021
Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/04/2021
October 2021 Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 10/07/2021
PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ Tax Credit report Presentation The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based Budget Board. 09/28/2021
Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit report. 09/24/2021
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past nine budget cycles. 09/16/2021
September 2021 Economic Update The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/16/2021
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget. 08/31/2021
Natural Gas Production report, 2021Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 08/24/2021
August 2021 Economic Update The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  08/12/2021
July 2021 Economic Update The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  07/14/2021
June 2021 Economic Update The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 06/17/2021
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 05/26/2021
Natural Gas Production report, 2021Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/24/2021
Initial Revenue Estimate Announcement The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Wednesday, May 26th at 1:00PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2020-21 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2021-22. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 05/19/2021
May 2021 Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  05/18/2021
April 2021 Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  04/28/2021
Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit report. IFO Letter to the SCC 04/23/2021
Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit report. 04/23/2021
Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit report. 04/23/2021
Video Game Production Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Video Game Production Tax Credit report. 04/23/2021
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2021-22 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/22/2021
March 2021 Economic Update The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  03/22/2021
Natural Gas Production report, 2020Q4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  03/02/2021
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.) 02/24/2021
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. 02/23/2021
February 2021 Economic Update The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  02/18/2021
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 01/21/2021
January 2021 Economic Update The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  01/20/2021
January 2021 Economic and Budget Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 01/11/2021
2020 Impact Fee Estimate This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2020 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2021). Collections are estimated to be $144.9 million, a decrease of $55.9 million from the prior year. 01/05/2021
December 2020 Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  12/16/2020
November 2020 Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  11/25/2020
Natural Gas Production report, 2020Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  11/24/2020
State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 11/24/2020
Revenue and Economic Update FY 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its October Revenue and Economic Update. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 10/29/2020
October 2020 Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  10/22/2020
September 2020 Economic Update The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  09/23/2020
Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 09/08/2020
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eight budget cycles. 09/03/2020
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget. 08/27/2020
August 2020 Economic Update The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/25/2020
Natural Gas Production report, 2020Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 08/20/2020
July 2020 Economic Update The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  07/23/2020
Economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products. 06/30/2020
Impact Fee Update and 2020 Outlook This report examines impact fee collections for 2019 and provides an outlook for 2020. 06/25/2020
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Presentation Methodology 06/22/2020
June 2020 Economic Update The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  06/17/2020
Natural Gas Production report, 2020Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  05/21/2020
May 2020 Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 05/20/2020
IFO Public Briefing: Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.   05/19/2020
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/23/2020
April 2020 Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 04/22/2020
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  03/25/2020
Natural Gas Production report, 2019Q4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 02/26/2020
IFO News Stand - February Edition The February edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 02/20/2020
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25. 02/06/2020
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 01/29/2020
Testimony on Combined reporting Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony to the Senate Democratic Policy Committee regarding the potential impact of combined reporting on corporate net income tax revenues. 01/29/2020
Department of Human Services - Part 1 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-Based Budget Board. 01/21/2020
Research and Development Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Research and Development Tax Credit report. 01/21/2020
Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit report. 01/21/2020
Department of State Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State. 01/16/2020
Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit report. 01/16/2020
Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit report. 01/16/2020
IFO News Stand - January Edition The January edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/15/2020
IFO News Stand - December Edition The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/20/2019
Natural Gas Production report, 2019Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 12/03/2019
FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release. 11/14/2019
IFO News Stand-October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  10/24/2019
IFO NEWS STAND - SEPTEMBER EDITION The September edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  09/25/2019
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.  08/28/2019
Natural Gas Production report, 2019Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  08/21/2019
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. 08/08/2019
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past seven budget cycles. 07/26/2019
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/18/2019
Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook This report examines impact fee collections for 2018 and provides an outlook for 2019. 06/28/2019
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and official estimates for FY 2019-20 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Methodology 06/21/2019
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/20/2019
Natural Gas Production report, 2019Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/30/2019
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/22/2019
IFO News Stand - April Edition The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/22/2019
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."   03/22/2019
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 03/19/2019
SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.   03/18/2019
Special Fund Receipts and Disbursements and Ambulatory Surgical Center Assessment The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked for an update to a February 12, 2018 report on the receipts and disbursements of certain special funds and information on how Pennsylvania compares to other states with regard to the use of special funds. Another committee member asked about the proposed ambulatory surgical center assessment for the Department of Human Services (DHS). 03/13/2019
Income and Property Tax Burden for Retirees In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States (December 2018). The letter also compares Pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states. 03/06/2019
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION report, 2018 Q4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 03/05/2019
Film Production Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Film Production Tax Credit report. 01/18/2019
New Jobs Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the New Jobs Tax Credit report. 01/18/2019
Historic Preservation Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Historic Preservation Tax Credit report. 01/18/2019
IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 12/11/2018
Natural Gas Production report, 2018 Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 12/04/2018
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) state tax rates and (4) state debt levels. 12/03/2018
IFO News Stand - November Edition The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 11/20/2018
FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.   11/15/2018
IFO News Stand - October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 10/17/2018
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION report, 2018Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 08/30/2018
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 08/20/2018
MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY REVENUE ESTIMATES This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 07/30/2018
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past six budget cycles. 07/25/2018
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/24/2018
Impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook This report examines 2017 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2018. 06/28/2018
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/19/2018
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION report, 2018Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/31/2018
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/16/2018
IFO News Stand - April Edition The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/20/2018
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  04/18/2018
Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate.  04/11/2018
Natural Gas Production report, 2017Q4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 03/05/2018
Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20.  The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table 02/16/2018
SPECIAL FUND RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS In response to a legislative request, the IFO compiled certain data presented in the Governor’s Executive Budget for various years to produce a multi-year history of receipts and disbursements for selected special funds. The letter identifies certain special fund budgeting and reporting issues that should be considered when analyzing the data. The letter also provides computations for a potential budget increase factor based on the annual increases in population and the consumer price index.  02/15/2018
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 02/01/2018
Revenue Estimate Performance This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past five budget cycles. 12/22/2017
Updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget. 12/21/2017
Natural Gas Production report, 2017 Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 12/07/2017
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share 11/16/2017
Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q3 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. 11/03/2017
Child Care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania The report provides an overview of the economic impacts of state spending on subsidized child care and no-cost pre-kindergarten programs in Pennsylvania. 09/06/2017
Natural Gas Production report, 2017 Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 08/29/2017
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget. 08/10/2017
Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q2 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. 08/02/2017
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.  05/31/2017
Natural Gas Production report, 2017 Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/22/2017
Quarterly Revenue Review 2017 Q1 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. 05/05/2017
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017) 04/05/2017
Horse Racing Analysis Act 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017) 03/13/2017
Natural Gas Production report, 2016 Quarter 4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2016 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 03/02/2017
Department of Corrections Performance Measures At the request of the General Assembly, the IFO has published a performance measurement report for the Department of Corrections (DOC) in advance of the agency’s budget hearings. The report includes agency cost-drivers, performance metrics and multi-state comparisons. The DOC report arises from the IFO’s 2016 report, “Using Performance Measures in the State Budget,” in which the office outlined options for performance measurement and provided a prototype report that could be integrated into the state budget process and utilized during annual budget hearings. 02/27/2017
Budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21.  The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas.    Download a version for optimized web viewing 02/16/2017
Quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q4 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. 01/24/2017
Updated School District Property Tax Forecast Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast. 01/09/2017
Natural Gas Production report, 2016 Quarter 3 This report for the third quarter of 2016 and the calendar year-to-date uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 11/30/2016
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk 11/15/2016
Quarterly Revenue Review 2016 Q3 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.  Fiscal Year 2016-17 2016 Q3 (July to September 2016) 10/27/2016
Using Performance Measures in the State Budget Discusses performance-based budgeting and how it could be integrated into Pennsylvania's budget process. Highlights how other states are effectively using performance measures in their budget systems. Includes a prototype report which could be used in agency budget hearings and provides a method for quick integration. 09/19/2016
Natural Gas Production report, 2016 Quarter 2 This report for the second quarter of 2016 and the calendar year-to-date uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 08/26/2016
Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget.  08/24/2016
Natural Gas Production report, 2016 Quarter 1 This report for the first quarter of 2016 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/26/2016
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  04/21/2016
Economic Development Incentives This research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives. The report displays this information for the two most recently completed fiscal years (FY): 2013-14 and 2014-15.   03/25/2016
Natural Gas Production report, 2015 July to December This report for the second half of 2015 and the calendar year-to-date uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 02/29/2016
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21 This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (Updated January 2016) Presentation 01/27/2016
Shared-Risk Pension Analysis This letter provides a statutorily required report analyzing the implementation of the shared-risk pension provisions introduced by Act 120 of 2010. 12/18/2015
Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology Glossary of technical terms to supplement the Natural Gas Production report for the first half of 2015. 09/15/2015
Natural Gas Production report, 2015 January to June This report for the first half of 2015 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 09/15/2015
Impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 06/25/2015
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States The report examines how Pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to make comparisons. 03/30/2015
Fiscal Implications of a York County School District Consolidation The report provides potential consolidation savings and costs for 15 York County school districts and computes the real estate tax millage using various earned income tax rates and administrative savings scenarios. Full report Presentation 12/12/2014
Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison This report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections) 03/17/2014
Pennsylvania Lottery: Historical Data and Interstate Comparisons Demographic projections suggest that demand for programs and services funded by lottery revenues will grow at a rate that exceeds the expansion of the Pennsylvania economy. Therefore, an important issue for policymakers is whether lottery revenues can maintain recent growth rates so they will be sufficient to meet those demands. This report provides data to assist policymakers in those deliberations. 01/30/2014
Analysis of Proposal to Replace School Property Taxes: House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76 This report presents the results from an analysis of House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76 performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The proposed legislation eliminates local school district property taxes and replaces those funds with sales and use and personal income taxes, as well as monies redirected from the Property Tax Relief Fund. Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee on 10/15/2013. Data for the graphs in section 4 of the report that display the annual and cumulative changes in personal income, sales and school property tax collections. Introduction, which contains summary results from the report. 10/01/2013
Analysis of Michigan Property Tax Reform This report presents the results from an analysis of the Michigan property tax reform known as Proposal A. Enacted in 1994, Proposal A replaced all local property taxes used for school operating purposes with higher sales and use, realty transfer and tobacco taxes. It also created a distinction between homestead and nonhomestead property to facilitate the statewide levy of uniform property taxes on those classes of property. The report makes extensive use of data published by various Michigan executive and legislative agencies to illustrate the impact of property tax reform on tax revenues, millage rates, per pupil funding levels and the property tax base over the past two decades. 09/16/2013
Uncapping the Film Production Tax Credit: A Fiscal and Economic Analysis This report presents the results of an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on the fiscal and economic impacts of eliminating the cap on Pennsylvania’s film production tax credit (FPTC). The report also considers stand-alone tax credits for post-production and digital interactive media services. 05/31/2013
Corporate Tax Base Erosion: Analysis of Policy Options Analysis of the policies that states have used to preserve or expand the corporate tax base. The report focuses on two particular base retention or expansion policies: combined reporting and expense addbacks. 03/04/2013
index.cfm Performance Budgeting Energy Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases Natural Gas Production Report: 2024 Q3 Energy December 03, 2024 This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. ... (Full Report) November 2024 Revenue Update Revenue & Economic Update December 02, 2024 The Commonwealth collected $2.93 billion in General Fund revenues Hits: 389
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 22, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released in February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The Hits: 146
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 23, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released in February 2020. The Independent Hits: 124
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf purposes of Act 48 of 2017, the Department of Human Services will be reviewed over a three-year period. This report contains the second part of the review for the department. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 117
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf A Report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Concerning Restrictive Investment Mandates and their Potential Impact upon the Public E C I A L R E P O R T: DIVESTMENT AND PENNSYLVANIA’S PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT SYSTEMS A Report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Concerning Restrictive Investment Mandates and their Potential Impact upon the Public Hits: 106
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 any regulation impacting single-use plastics, reusable plastics, auxiliary containers, wrappings or polystyrene containers and submit a full report of its findings to the General Assembly no later than July 1, 2020.” The act also requires the Legislative Budget and Finance Hits: 82
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 22, 2019 This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released in February 2019. The Independent Hits: 73
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf SPECIAL REPORT: Funding and Reforming Public Employee Retirement Systems Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Harrisburg, Pennsylvania January 2013 PUBLIC EMPLOYEE this Commission has a responsibility to study, on a continuing basis, the Commonwealth’s public employee retirement systems and to report thereon to the Governor and the General Assembly. Pursuant to that mandate and the pension funding issues brought about by Hits: 72
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf the purposes of Act 48 of 2017, the Department of Human Services is reviewed over a three-year period. This report contains the third part of the review for the department. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 71
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released in February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) pub- lishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires Hits: 64
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Aging. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 62
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 the Performance- Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Historic Preservation Tax Credit (HPTC Hits: 61
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit (RJITC). The IFO identified similar programs in Hits: 54
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, we submit this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the Office, this report does not offer any policy recommendations. The data and projections used by this report come from various sources. Economic projections Hits: 52
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Sen- ate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation (CRER) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on Hits: 45
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf The IFO must submit all tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget (PBB) Board for approval and make the reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews contain the following content: ▪ The the PBB Board approved the last of the tax credit reviews required during the initial five- year evaluation period. This report summarizes highlights from all 20 of the initial reports. Please note: ▪ The information contained in each summary was accurate as Hits: 45
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Educational Tax Credits (ETC). The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed Hits: 44
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Criminal Justice, which includes the combined oper- ations of the Department of Corrections and the Hits: 43
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf DRAFT REPORT: Data may change prior to public release. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania State Police. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the Hits: 42
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf Retirement Commission Issues Associated with Extending Commonwealth-Subsidized Healthcare Coverage to the Surviving Spouses of Certain Retired Commonwealth Employees A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 161 Adopted in the Session COMMISSION P. O. BOX 1429, HARRISBURG, PA 17105-1429 March 2006 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to House Resolution Number 161, which was adopted by the House of Representatives Hits: 41
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 telephone: 717-230-8293 Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports avail- able to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Keystone Innovation Zone (KIZ Hits: 39
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Education. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 39
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Health. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content Hits: 39
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Video Game Production (VGP) Tax Credit. The IFO re- viewed studies on video Hits: 38
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Research and Development Tax Credit Hits: 38
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 the Performance- Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Film Production Tax Credit (FPTC Hits: 38
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Waterfront Development Tax Credit (WDTC). The IFO conducted research to determine if similar Hits: 37
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing (PRM) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on the petrochemical Hits: 37
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf System Consulting Services, Information, and Technical Assistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Municipal Pension Plan Funding Standard and Recovery Act Act and Regulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Reporting Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Actuarial Funding Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Required Actuarial Cost Estimates for Benefit Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 General Municipal Pension System State Aid S. §§ 895.101- 895.803), the Commission has three additional responsibili- ties. The first is to administer the actuarial valuation report- ing program for municipal retirement systems that entails monitoring and enforcing compliance with the legislatively mandated actuarial funding standard and Hits: 37
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO sub- mits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In ac- cordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections Hits: 37
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections Hits: 37
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report Hits: 37
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program (EEEP). The IFO reviewed industry reports that relate to Hits: 36
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Transportation. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency un- der review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has Hits: 35
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on state and Hits: 33
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 the Performance- Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Job Creation Tax Credit (JCTC Hits: 33
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections Hits: 33
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Executive Offices. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 31
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency (PCCD). All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board Hits: 31
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf to transmit four PBB plans and five tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the Hits: 31
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Manufacturing Tax Credit. The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed the Hits: 30
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed studies on Hits: 29
RB-2015-04.pdf that state‐speci Ðic observations can be weighted to yield population totals for individual states. The CPS asks respondents to report their hourly wage, occupation, number of hours worked, age, sex, ethnicity and other demographic information. The survey also asks respondents are compensated on an hourly or non‐hourly (i.e., salary) basis. For Pennsylvania, the CPS Ðinds that workers who report they are compensated on an hourly basis comprise roughly three‐ Ðifths of total non‐farm payroll employment. For the U Hits: 29
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. All performance- based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following Hits: 29
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf Testimony on Combined Reporting Senate Democratic Policy Committee January 29, 2020 Matthew Knittel, Independent Fiscal Office Good afternoon Chair Boscola and members of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify. For my remarks, I will provide some brief comments on combined reporting, the use of the filing method by other states and the IFO’s perspective on the potential revenue impact. Background Hits: 29
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections Hits: 29
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of State. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content Hits: 28
2002_drop_report.pdf PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION HARRISBURG 17120 March 2002 To: Governor Schweiker and Members of the General Assembly This special report deals with the issue of deferred retirement option plans (DROPs), which are currently being implemented by public employers throughout the complications for the Commonwealth unless guidelines are put in place to integrate DROPs with our existing retirement statutes. The enclosed report describes the various design aspects of DROPs, discusses the advantages and disadvantages of DROPs from employer and employee perspectives, and Hits: 28
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports avail- able to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Hits: 27
Five_Year_Outlook_2024.pdf into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. The data and projections presented in this report are from various sources. Economic projections Hits: 27
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf Payments on account of disability shall be reduced by that amount by which the earned income of the annuitant, as reported in accordance with section 8508(b) (relating to rights and duties of annuitants) for the preceding year together with the employment or death or in other circumstances consistent with the purpose of the plan. (14) The board may waive any reporting or information requirement contained in this part if the board determines that the information is not needed for the administration Hits: 27
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Banking and Securities. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the Hits: 26
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf be helpful as you consider the FY 2022-23 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses Hits: 26
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit. The IFO identified similar programs in other states Hits: 25
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 25
Kling_Presentation.pdf section describing the basis of the estimate. Recent examples of other publications providing general information include the following:  A report on how CBO prepares baseline budget projections  A slide deck about CBO’s health insurance simulation model  A report on the model that CBO uses to make long-term projections  An appendix about the effects of the 2017 Hits: 25
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf be helpful as you consider the FY 2021-22 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses Hits: 25
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2023-24 Executive Budget released in March 2023. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The Hits: 24
IFO_Testimony_CR_June_29_2023.pdf Testimony on Combined Reporting House Finance Committee June 29, 2023 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Good morning, Chairmen Samuelson and Greiner and members of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify on the filing method known as combined reporting. For my brief remarks, I will review the figure and three tables that are attached. Under mandatory combined reporting, multi- Hits: 24
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Community and Economic Development. All perfor- mance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board Hits: 23
RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf 665 tax returns included in the CNIT database:  There were 52,887 returns (57.1% of total returns) that reported no tax liability.  Somewhat more than one quarter of returns (26.5%) reported tax liability, but under $5,000.  There were 969 returns (1.0%) that reported tax liability greater than $500 Hits: 22
RB-2016-02.pdf economic growth through various direct (e.g., expenditures) and indirect (e.g., tax credits) spending mechanisms. Many states publish comprehensive reports that detail their spending on economic development incentives. In Pennsylvania, the information is dispersed across multiple sources and is not data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives. The report displays this information for the two most recently completed Ðiscal years (FY): 2013‐14 and 2014‐15. In order to Hits: 22
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf to the Governor, the General Assembly and the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The act directs the IFO to produce a report that summarizes the results, including the ratio of projected employer contributions to projected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of the General Assembly. The data and projections used in this report are from various Hits: 22
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf DRAFT – INTERNAL USE ONLY Insert DLI Report Cover Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Labor and Industry. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board Hits: 22
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 Act 48 of 2017, the Department of Human Services will be reviewed over a three-year period. This report contains the first part of the review for the department. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the Hits: 22
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf tax rate (e.g., sales-only factor apportionment). Three states attempted to broaden their state tax base through mandatory combined reporting (New Mexico, Connecticut and Rhode Island). For 2018 to 2023, four states are scheduled to reduce their tax rates: Connecticut CNIT revenues to actual profits attributable to a state. However, state-level profits data are not published, and taxable profits reported on state income tax returns are likely not representative of actual state-level profits because those amounts are determined by Hits: 22
2004_srpvffinal.pdf Public Pension Policy and Funding Considerations Associated with the Implementation of a Statewide Volunteer Firefighter Retirement System In Pennsylvania A report to the House of Representatives of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 452 Adopted in the COMMISSION P. O. BOX 1429, HARRISBURG, PA 17105-1429 March 2004 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to House Resolution Number 452, which was adopted in the House of Representa- Hits: 22
2002_dbdc_report.pdf Governmental Defined Benefit & Defined Contribution Pension Plans Defined Contribution Pension Plans Defined Contribution Pension Plans Defined Contribution Pension Plans A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 266 Adopted in the Session COMMISSION P. O. BOX 1429, HARRISBURG, PA 17105-1429 December 2002 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to House Resolution Number 266, which was adopted in the House of Representatives Hits: 22
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 28, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2024-25 Governor’s Executive Budget released in February 2024. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The Hits: 21
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf 3 to 2.0 percent. Long‐Term Budget Outlook The IFO recently released its five‐year economic and budget outlook report as required by statute. Due to the budget impasse, the report was re‐released in late January and was updated with certain expenditures as appropriated by the General Assembly and approved Hits: 21
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf on a duty specified in its original authorizing legislation and undertaken two new statutory duties. First, the IFO published a report that outlined options for outcome-based performance measurement of executive agencies and created a prototype report to solicit feedback on its usefulness. A built-out version of the prototype report for the Department of Corrections will Hits: 21
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf on a duty specified in its original authorizing legislation and undertaken two new statutory duties. First, the IFO published a report that outlined options for outcome-based performance measurement of executive agencies and created a prototype report to solicit feedback on its usefulness. A built-out version of the prototype report for the Department of Corrections will Hits: 21
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf FUNDING COST-OF-LIVING ADJUSTMENTS A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to Senate Resolution No. 103 Adopted in the Session COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION HARRISBURG 17120 November 2000 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to the direction provided by Senate Resolution Number 103, which was passed on Hits: 21
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf to the Governor, the General Assembly and the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The act directs the IFO to produce a report that summarizes the results, including the ratio of projected employer contributions to projected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of the General Assembly. The data and projections used in this report are from various Hits: 20
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 and FY 2020-21. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final Hits: 19
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following Hits: 19
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf the Budget, can be found at the end of this submission. It is the intention of the IFO that the reports designated for the first year would be submitted at the end of this calendar year or the beginning of next of PBB plans or furnishing data for tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes Hits: 19
Releases IFO - Releases IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Releases IFO Releases Natural Gas Production Report: 2024 Q3 December 03, 2024 | Energy This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. Full Report November 2024 Revenue Update December 02, 2024 | Revenue & Economic Update The Commonwealth collected $2.93 billion in General Fund revenues Hits: 19
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports avail- able to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Organ and Bone Marrow Hits: 18
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf to the Governor, the General Assembly and the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The act directs the IFO to produce a report that summarizes the results, including a calculation of projected employer contributions to pro- jected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of the General Assembly. The data and projections used in this report are from various Hits: 18
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 21, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2020-21. The report describes the methodologies used to Hits: 18
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 3, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2019-20. The report describes the methodologies used to Hits: 18
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf consulting with Board members regarding the time frame for transmittal of those plans and reviews. The IFO also prepares monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinates analyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists reports published by the IFO during the past Hits: 18
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make the reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Brewers’ Tax Credit. The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed the Hits: 17
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf to the Governor, the General Assembly and the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The act directs the IFO to produce a report that summarizes the results, including a calculation of projected employer contributions to pro- jected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of the General Assembly. The data and projections used in this report are from various Hits: 17
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf to the Governor, the General Assembly and the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The act directs the IFO to produce a report that summarizes the results, including a calculation of projected employer contributions to pro- jected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of the General Assembly. The data and projections used in this report are from various Hits: 17
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Environmental Protection. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following Hits: 17
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 26, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2024-25. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of Hits: 17
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 27, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2023-24 . The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of Hits: 17
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 6, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2022-23. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of Hits: 17
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 24, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2021-22. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or comments regarding the contents of Hits: 17
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 and FY 2020-21, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May Hits: 17
NGPR-2016Q1.pdf DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report First Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count First Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth Hits: 17
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf increased among adults across the United States, but decreased among those ages 12 to 17. During this period, adults who reported using marijuana in the past month increased from 19.0% to 23.0% for ages 18 to 25 and from tissues and users can develop problems with attention, memory and learning functions. 2 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that about 1 in 10 users will become addicted to marijuana and that ratio increases to 1 in 6 for Hits: 17
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf reviews to the Performance-Based Budget Board and the Chairs of the House and Senate Finance Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Keystone Special Development Zone (KSDZ) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed relevant research related Hits: 16
NGPR-2016Q2.pdf DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Second Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth Hits: 16
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report Hits: 16
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of General Services. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following Hits: 15
NGPR-2016Q4.pdf Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Fourth Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Fourth Quarter Calendar Year 2016 2015 Growth 2016 2015 Hits: 15
NGPR-2016Q3.pdf Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and well formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report Third Quarter 2016 Table 2: Well Count Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date 2016 2015 Growth Hits: 15
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf be helpful as you consider the FY 2023-24 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses Hits: 15
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf January 4, 2013 Special Report 2013-1 Independent Fiscal Office Proposed Sales Tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair About the Independent Fiscal not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- Hits: 14
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 and assessments to generate the funds necessary to provide those services and meet the needs of residents. This report uses the latest data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee Hits: 14
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf homeownership status and various other factors. This research brief provides a high-level review of how tax law changes affect reported Total Income, Taxable Income, various deductions and tax credits, and Tax Liability. The data suggest that the act likely reduced from the larger child tax credit, higher income taxpayers benefited from lower marginal tax rates. Computation of Total Income Taxpayers report various types of income on the federal income tax return including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, royalties, pensions, IRAs Hits: 14
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf to Pennsylvania landowners, and those amounts must be inferred from other data sources. Royalty income is taxable and recipients must report those amounts on the Pennsylvania personal income tax return (Form PA-40, line 6). Unfortunately, royalty income is not reported separately on the tax return, but is combined with rental, patent and copyright income. However, given (1) the relatively recent Hits: 14
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Agriculture. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 14
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf transfer of funds directly to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups are based on the tax returns or reported income levels of stimulus fund recipients across four income groups: (1) below $25,000; (2) $25,000 to $49,999 32% ($10.4 billion) of all EIPs flowed to residents (and any dependents) with AGI under $25,000. For filers reporting less than $100,000 in TY 2019, the share increases to 85% ($27.7 billion) of the total value. Provision Hits: 13
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 13
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 and FY 2021-22. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate in June 2021. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Hits: 12
RB_2024_06_Sources_PA_Income.pdf rates are 12.6% for the U.S. and 11.8% for Pennsylvania. 1 Due to the significant understatement of reported income and the exclusion of large federal transfers and refundable tax credits, computed poverty rates will be overstated. The U the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). Includes the Adjustment for Residents ($14 billion). By comparison, $386 billion (91%) was reported on the state income tax return and $364 billion (86%, preliminary) on the federal income tax return. Excludes employer provided Hits: 12
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Revenue. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 12
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf May 28, 2013 Special Report 2013-4 Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 through CY 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- Hits: 12
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 and FY 2021-22, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 26, 2021. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Hits: 12
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf analysis, we have nearly always undertaken requests when time and resources permit. Per the office policy, we make all published reports available on our website after the requestor has had three days to review the response and ask questions. The office are several bills that would further expand the duties of the office to include: the publication of performance-based budget reports, analysis of proposed regulations that are “economically significant,” and cost-benefit analyses using the Results First model maintained by the Hits: 12
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 October 29, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issues this report as an update to its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and Hits: 12
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf fees, tolls and assessments to generate the funds necessary to provide those services and meet the needs of residents. This report uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee type, the report ranks states in descending order based on the ratio of tax revenue to state personal income. This simple ratio is Hits: 11
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf collections and the annual growth rate of those collections. The data exclude delinquent collections because those amounts were not publicly reported for the entire period shown. Key trends in recent SD property tax collections include: • For FY 2021-22, collections (excluding 4.7% 5.7% 4.8% 4.4% 4.1% Note: Dollars in millions. The Act 1 base index is reported by PDE through FY 23-24, forecasted by the IFO thereafter. Table 1: School District Property Tax Forecast INDEPENDENT FISCAL Hits: 11
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf collections and the annual growth rate of those collections. The data exclude delinquent collections because those amounts were not publicly reported for the entire period shown. Key trends in SD property tax collections over the last 10 years include: • FY 2020- 3.8% 4.8% 5.1% 4.3% 4.1% Note: Dollars in millions. The Act 1 base index is reported by PDE through FY 22-23, forecasted by the IFO thereafter. Table 1: School District Property Tax Forecast INDEPENDENT FISCAL Hits: 11
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 8, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released in February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The Hits: 11
MTR-2015-09.pdf data that capture interstate migration patterns for calendar years 2012 and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania, more than five million federal tax returns were matched between the two years. The database data reveal a net outflow from Pennsylvania of 21,578 individuals (includes dependents) and $935 million of adjusted gross income reported on tax returns for tax year 2012. The states of New York (6,925), New Jersey (3,858) and Maryland Hits: 11
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf A brief description of the motivation and methodology used for this analysis can be found at the end of this report. Event and State Grant The Ironman Group operates triathlons and other multisport events on a worldwide basis. The inaugural 2023 1,300 out-of-state and international athletes, there was strong demand for local hotel rooms. According to Smith Travel Report (STR) data for the State College area, demand for hotel rooms increased the Wednesday (June 28) before the event and Hits: 11
DOC_Performance_Measures_Final.pdf Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: In September 2016, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a report entitled “Using Performance Measures in the State Budget.” In that report, the office described the systems and processes that certain states use to implement performance-based budgeting. The report also included Hits: 11
Demographics_Outlook_2024.pdf account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the office’s mission, this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from Hits: 11
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from Hits: 11
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school the property tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2019-20 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2020-21 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax Hits: 11
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 and assessments to generate the funds necessary to provide those services and meet the needs of residents. This report uses the latest data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee Hits: 10
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf This report provides an updated forecast of statewide school district property taxes based on the latest published revenue data and economic projections 15.3 billion. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2020-21 in late Spring 2022. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2021-22 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax Hits: 10
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf Q2 by county and (4) county data published by the Department of Revenue (DOR) for wage compensation and net profits reported on the state tax return. 2  For 2020 Q3 to 2021 Q1, projected statewide job loss patterns were applied the COVID-19 pandemic. (Note: The municipal data exclude Philadelphia due to large fluctuations in historical growth rates. Moreover, the reported amounts reflect collections at the much higher city rates on wages and earnings for residents and commuters, and the city Hits: 10
QRR_2015Q2.pdf to June 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Hits: 10
QRR_2014Q2.pdf to June 2014 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Hits: 10
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on tabulations from Hits: 10
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school the property tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2018-19 in late Spring 2020. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2019-20 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax Hits: 9
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and FY 2022-23, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 23, 2022. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Hits: 9
RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdf an extra $300 per week for six weeks after the FPUC program expired. Tax return data show that UC amounts reported on Pennsylvania federal tax returns increased from $1.4 billion (2019) to $21.3 billion (2020) and the average amount reported increased from $4,970 to $13,810. (See table. Amounts for 2020 are prior to the temporary $10,200 UC Hits: 9
QRR_2015Q1.pdf to March 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Hits: 9
QRR_2014Q4.pdf to December 2014 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report are taken from Hits: 9
QRR_2013Q4.pdf to December 2013 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report Hits: 9
QRR_2013Q3.pdf to September 2013 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual collections. The revenue estimates in this report Hits: 9
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf Aging (PDA) | Dept. of Human Services (DHS, Part 3) ▪ PA Dept. of Education (PDE) | Dept. of Agriculture (AGR) How Can Reports Be Used ▪ Link funding levels to outcome metrics – Did additional funding impact outcomes? ▪ Provide additional metrics and indicators to inform outcomes for regions, counties, school districts within PA differ from the statewide measure? January 24, 2022 1 Common Issues Across Reports PBB reports reflect the significant impact of COVID-19 ▪ Agency caseloads, staffing, operations & related performance measures ▪ Long-term shifts – more Hits: 9
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 9
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx limitations ▪ Does a 5% credit incentivize investment? | very few relevant studies ▪ Where is investment located? | data not required to be reported ▪ Most economic gains from extension to underserved/unserved areas Modest economic gains | assume 10% is incentivized ▪ Gross ROI: 15 cents 2.5m labor earnings | 39 FTEs Recommendations ▪ If retained, convert to competitive grant program ▪ Require investment to underserved/unserved areas ▪ Report metrics: location of investment, speeds, existing alternatives January 23, 2020 6 Research and Development Tax Credit Credit 10% / 20% of Hits: 9
NGPR-2019Q4.pdf years. Calendar year production is up 11.4 per- cent compared to the same period in 2018. Natural Gas Production Report Q4 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 in the future). These graphs pertain only to horizontal wells. All figures are based on production and spud well data reported by DEP through 2019. For 2019, total production was 6,815 bcf, an increase of 11.4 percent over the Hits: 9
NewsStand_2019_October.pdf state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Growing Number of Older Americans Burdened by Housing Costs A report by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies finds that between 2012 and 2017 the number of households headed cost-burdened” paying more than 30% of their income for housing. Older renters and older homeowners still making mortgage payments reported paying between $830 and $1,300 on monthly housing costs. This is considerably more than those 65+ who paid off Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf the end of June. Philadelphia Fed Releases Weekly Business Outlook Survey on COVID-19 The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reports on a weekly survey of over 200 businesses in the Third District (Eastern PA-NJ-DE) to track ongoing economic for the week ending May 10 are compared to the week ending April 12. For May 10, 64% of businesses reported reductions of more than 5% in orders or sales, relatively unchanged from April 12. However, the number of businesses reporting Hits: 9
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- Office Page 1 Introduction Policymakers often inquire about their state’s tax system relative to other states. This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Internal Revenue Service to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax Hits: 8
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf to other special funds included in this analysis have been subtracted to avoid double counting. Note: dollar amounts in thousands. Reporting for special fund spending differs based on the year being reported. Special fund disbursements for actual years are reported on a cash basis, while the estimate for the current fiscal year Hits: 8
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and FY 2022-23. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate in June 2022. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Hits: 8
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 and FY 2019-20. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final Hits: 8
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf and (2) the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education ($825 million in 2021). • Act 128 of 2020: Enacts administrative and reporting changes for SERS and PSERS. Most notably, the act requires both systems to conduct prescribed stress testing. The IFO will compile those data in a report that summarizes outcomes and calculates the ratio of projected employer pension contributions to projected state revenues. Regular stress testing provides Hits: 8
QRE_FY14-15.pdf not support or oppose any policies it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- 120). __________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank.- Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 FY 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: 1) the Hits: 8
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 8
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Section 1704-E (b) of The Fiscal Code. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 and FY 2019-20, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released by the Hits: 8
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 ance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released by the Independent Fiscal Hits: 8
NGPR-2019Q3.pdf two years. Calendar year production is up 12.7 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Natural Gas Production Report Q3 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 which casing is placed into the wellbore. Spud Year refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the Hits: 8
NGPR-2019Q2.pdf or year. Calendar year production is up 14.6 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Natural Gas Production Report Q2 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 which casing is placed into the wellbore. Spud Year refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the Hits: 8
NGPR-2017Q1.pdf 8.0 percent. Data for the first quarter are equal to the calendar year-to-date totals. Natural Gas Production Report Q1 Independent Fiscal Office 3 First Quarter 2017 Tables 3 and 4 decompose first quarter and calendar year-to-date n.a. -2.2% 0.3% -2.9% -4.8% -6.5% Notes: Horizontal wells only. Data through 2014 were reported on a half-year basis. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Figure 1 displays the number Hits: 8
NGPR-2015-2H.pdf Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the last six months of 2015 and the full calendar year. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. Natural Gas Production Report July Hits: 8
NAP-2018-03.pdf increase the annual cap to $36 million annually and the amount reserved for pass-through entities would remain unchanged. This report provides an overview of each component of the NAP, explains how the program works and estimates the economic impact of The NAP is authorized under Article XIX-A of the Tax Reform Code of 1971 (Act 48-1994). 2 This report is provided in response to a legislative request and does not constitute a tax credit review as required under Act Hits: 8
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf February from prior year  Positives: housing market, sales tax revenues show strong growth Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now than 2019  Combined reporting vs rate reduction: what is the trade off? March 31, 2021 2 General Fund Financial Statement (Jan 2021) March 31 Hits: 8
MER-2014-11.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% n.a. 2.57% 2.52% 2.35% 2.24% November 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 8
MER-2014-03.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by 1.4% 1.6% 1.1% n.a. 1.87% 2.67% 2.67% 2.69% March 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 8
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf on base-broadening reforms  Avoid “race to the bottom.”  Decouple from harmful federal base-narrowing measures  “Combined Reporting” (preferably with worldwide reach on tax havens)  Disclosure/Clawbacks.  Three-factor apportionment factor  Economic nexus  Minimum tax Combined Reporting: The Basics  Combined reporting is one way of tackling a basic problem: what is the “company” to which we Hits: 8
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate by Hits: 8
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the mission of the office, this report does not make any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from Hits: 8
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf Appropriations Committees prepared by the Independent Fiscal Office February 7, 2014 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 IFO Reports and Analyses 2 Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental Hits: 8
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf that pertain to facility assessments. Results from the prior survey can be found in the “Basic Education Funding Commission Report and Recommendations” (June 18, 2015). The BEFC received 84 completed school district surveys (84% response rate) and 11 charter school surveys the selection of school districts and charter schools, see page 99 to 105 in the “Basic Education Funding Commission Report and Recommendations” dated June 18, 2015. 90.0%+ 80.0-89.9% 70.0-79.9% <70.0% Total Number of Hits: 8
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Tax Comparison Study Page 1 Methodology and Data Sources This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across Hits: 7
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2024.pdf This report provides an overview of statewide school district (SD) property tax collections as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE Weighted Average 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.7% 5.9% 4.5% Sources: Revenues through FY 2022-23 reported by PDE, projected by the IFO thereafter. Act 1 Index reported by PDE through FY 2024-25, projected by the Hits: 7
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax. 1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2017-18 in late Spring 2019. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2018-19 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax Hits: 7
RB_2024_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Non-farm personal income for CY 2022 by county as reported by the BEA is the base for county income. That income measure is adjusted to include several income sources as reported by the IRS: capital gains, IRA withdrawals and pension distributions. The analysis then deducts employer contributions to pension and health Hits: 7
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf exception is Philadelphia, which had the third-lowest property tax burden in the state. This result occurs because the county reported the highest level of personal income while also having a relatively low reliance on school property taxes compared to other Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Non-farm personal income in CY 2021 by county reported by the BEA is the base for county income. That measure is then adjusted to account for several factors as Hits: 7
RB-2018-01.pdf property tax. 1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2016-17 in late spring 2018. This report provides estimates for that year and FY 2017 -18 based on an IFO analysis of millage rate and property tax 23 are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report also incorporates recent IFO research regarding the property taxes paid by homesteads and displays estimates through FY 2022-23. Table Hits: 7
QRR_2015Q4.pdf detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues for the fourth Hits: 7
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. All performance- based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board informed discussion regarding agency operations and how they impact state residents. Note: Unless otherwise noted, performance metrics used in this report were supplied by the agency under review. Those data appear as submitted by the agency and the IFO has not Hits: 7
NGPR_2022_Q4.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FOURTH QUARTER 2022 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to compute statewide totals for production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR_2022_Q3.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2022 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to compute statewide totals for production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR_2022_Q2.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2022 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to compute statewide totals for production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR_2021_Q4.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FOURTH QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR_2021_Q3.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR_2020_Q4.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FOURTH QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR-2022-Q1.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2022 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2021 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) by natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) from natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2020 This report uses data reported to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) from natural gas operators to develop statewide tabulations of production volume and Hits: 7
NGPR-2017Q4.pdf production grew by 9.8 percent, while the number of producing wells increased by 9.2 percent. Natural Gas Production Report Q4 Independent Fiscal Office 3 Fourth Quarter 2017 Tables 3 and 4 decompose fourth quarter and calendar year production volume Notes: Horizontal wells only. Average production per well represents wells that (1) were spud at least three quarters before the reporting period and no earlier than 12 quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day. Figure 1 Hits: 7
NGPR-2017Q3.pdf production grew by 4.8 percent, while the number of producing wells increased by 9.3 percent. Natural Gas Production Report Q3 Independent Fiscal Office 3 Third Quarter 2017 Tables 3 and 4 decompose third quarter and calendar year-to-date Notes: Horizontal wells only. Average production per well represents wells that (1) were spud at least three quarters before the reporting period and no earlier than 12 quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day. Figure 1 Hits: 7
MTR-2016-04.pdf Pennsylvania housing market, because the active period for home sales typically begins in the second quarter. April 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Pennsylvania Association of Realtors, “Pennsylvania Q4- 2015 Statewide Report,” January 2016, and “Pennsylvania Q1-2016 Statewide Report,” March 2016. Data include residential single-family homes, townhouses, and condo- miniums Hits: 7
MER-2015-02.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.1% 0.7% ‐0.2% n.a. 2.66% 2.17% 1.64% 2.00% February 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 7
MER-2014-10.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% n.a. 2.57% 2.35% 2.52% 2.32% October 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 7
MER-2014-09.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.1% 2.0% 1.7% n.a. 2.64% 2.58% 2.35% 2.52% September 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 7
MER-2014-04.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.2% 1.1% 1.5% n.a. 1.70% 2.66% 2.73% 2.66% April 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 7
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf policy it analyzes, does not make policy recommendations and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Role in the Budget agreements, (3) provide an economic analysis of any revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget, (4) publish performance-based budgeting reports for executive agencies, (5) publish tax credit review reports, (6) dynamic modeling and (7) at the request of members of Hits: 7
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf 52, and the last two years are excluded from the table to provide costs that are consistent with the period reported for PSERS. The outcomes for the three time periods were as follows:  For FY 2018-19 to 2021-22 begins with a small net unfunded liability, but by the late 1990s, the unfunded liabilities were eliminated, and the Systems reported actuarial surpluses. This result was made possible by strong investment returns related to the “dot com” bubble and the corresponding Hits: 7
Pensions years 2001 and 2002 from 15 years to 30 years; 2) require that, in addition to the regular actuarial valuation report required to be filed with the Public Employee Retirement Commission on or before March 31, 2004, a municipality electing to extend the amortization period must file a revised actuarial valuation report reflecting the amortization period extension with the Commission no later than September 30, 2004; 3) require that the revised report Hits: 7
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf The data show that: • Over 6.2 million Pennsylvania residents filed a federal return and the majority (83.4 percent) reported adjusted gross income under $100,000. • Over 1.1 million filers reported business income on Schedule C, partnership income or a distribution from an S corporation. Many filers report income from two Hits: 6
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 and FY 2024-25, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 20, 2024. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Hits: 6
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and FY 2023-24, and supersedes the initial revenue estimate released on May 24, 2023. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Hits: 6
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 and FY 2024-25. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate on June 20, 2024. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Hits: 6
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and FY 2023-24. Pursuant to statute, the office will release a final estimate on June 20, 2023. This report contains estimates for unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues that may be considered for appropriation in the General Hits: 6
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf exception is Philadelphia, which has the third-lowest property tax burden in the state. This result occurs because the county reported the highest level of personal income while also having a relatively low reliance on school property taxes compared to other Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Non-farm personal income in CY 2020 by county reported by the BEA is the base for county income. That measure is then adjusted to account for several factors. The Hits: 6
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf 370 Less State Expenditures ‐32,065 Lapses 50 ======= Ending Balance ‐1,860 Note: dollar amounts are in millions. IFO January Report 8.Jun.2016 6  FY 2016‐17 expenditure growth of $1,884 million. • One‐time expenditure deferrals expire. • Use a “normal” level. • Elimination of the capital stock and franchise tax. • Technical considerations affect timing of revenues. Highlights of January Report 8.Jun.2016 7  Impact of changes on FY 2016‐17 is unclear. • Sustainability of reductions to Medical Assistance Hits: 6
perez ppt.pdf in 5 states  Below estimate in 3 states (MI, OK and SD)  Real Estate Transfer  17 states reported real estate transfer taxes coming in on target or above expectations. 4 states—Hawaii, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania—reported transfer taxes below the current forecast.  Miscellaneous  5 states and Puerto Rico saw other miscellaneous taxes performing above Hits: 6
NGPR-2019Q1.pdf 7 percent. Despite decelerating from the previous two quarters, production growth continued to show signifi- cant strength. Natural Gas Production Report Q1 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) First Quarter Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 2019 Growth which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the Hits: 6
NGPR-2018Q4.pdf 14.2 percent from the prior year, the largest year- over-year increase in production since 2014. Natural Gas Production Report Q4 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth Share 2017 which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the Hits: 6
NGPR-2018Q3.pdf That rate is considerably higher than the first (9.9 percent) and second (10.0 percent) quarters. Natural Gas Production Report Q3 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the Hits: 6
NGPR-2018Q2.pdf a 10.0 percent gain in production from horizontal wells, which ac- counts for nearly all production. Natural Gas Production Report Q2 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the Hits: 6
NGPR-2018Q1.pdf 9.9 percent increase in production from horizontal wells, which ac- counts for nearly all of production. Natural Gas Production Report Q1 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) First Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth Share 2017 which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the Hits: 6
NGPR-2017Q2.pdf production grew by 3.8 percent, while the number of producing wells increased by 7.5 percent. Natural Gas Production Report Q2 Independent Fiscal Office 3 Second Quarter 2017 Tables 3 and 4 decompose second quarter and calendar year-to-date which casing is placed into the wellbore. “Spud year” refers to the year in which a well was spud, as reported to the Department of Environmental Protection. Unconventional Requiring technological methods that go beyond merely drilling a well and capturing the Hits: 6
NGPR-2015-1H.pdf Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the first six months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. A separate document published on Hits: 6
NGPR-2015-09.pdf Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the first six months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. A separate document published on Hits: 6
MTR-2017-06.pdf QCEW), issued by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, publishes quarterly data on employment and wages by sector, as reported by employers. In June, state data were released for the fourth quarter of 2016. For calendar year 2016, the data for the elderly and disabled ($21,479) being somewhat lower than the average for that sector. June 2017 Monthly Trends Report Sector 1 2015 2016 Health Care and Social Assistance 11,459 21,012 Ambulatory Health Care Svcs. 2 5,987 Hits: 6
MTR-2017-04.pdf a coast. The outflow could also be attributable to graduates moving back home after college. The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that one-third of people aged 18-34 live at home. Pennsylvania ranks 2nd highest in the nation of graduates in search of a lower cost of living, which can be found in Pennsylvania. April 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-YEAR PUMS 2015. 2 The Institute for College Access & Success, College Hits: 6
MTR-2017-03.pdf in consumer habits and (2) tighter underwriting standards that hindered loans to potential new homeowners. 3 March 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 Consumers Take a Credit Card Breather, The Wall Street Journal. March 2017. 2 Project on Student Debt, The Institute per capita for the fourth quarter of each calendar year and multiplied by the number of consumers with a credit report in each state to yield total debt. Number of consumers for 2016 is an IFO estimate. Total debt figures include Hits: 6
MTR-2017-02.pdf regional natural gas market will partly determine whether or not Pennsylvania follows these projected national trends. February 2017 Monthly Trends Report PA Electricity Generation By Source 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ report/electricity.cfm Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. United States Pennsylvania Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Nov- Hits: 6
MTR-2017-01.pdf STRONG Pennsylvania home sales continued a pattern of strong growth in 2016. The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors (PAR) releases quarterly reports on home sales and prices in the Commonwealth. The data include single-family units, townhomes and condominiums through the fourth it is unclear what the net impact on housing prices and sales will be going forward. January 2017 Monthly Trends Report Pennsylvania Housing Market 1 National Association of Realtors, “U.S. Economic Outlook: December 2016,” December 2016. 2 National Association of Hits: 6
MTR-2016-12.pdf York to –3.4% in West Virginia. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis divides GDP into different sectors for reporting purposes. For Pennsylvania, real GDP growth in the first half of the year was motivated by gains in agriculture (54 some of the weakness in their real GDP growth rates from the first half of 2016. December 2016 Monthly Trends Report 2016 Real GDP Growth by State State Q1 Q2 First Half New York 5.6% 0.1% 2.8% Delaware Hits: 6
MTR-2016-11.pdf at current levels, and demand for drilling employees should increase. However, as shown in the IFO’s Natural Gas Production Report for the third quarter of 2016, 2 operators still possess a substantial inventory of wells that have been drilled but that the employment contraction may have abated, more employment data are necessary to confirm that outcome. November 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 Provided by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Labor and Industry. 2 Released on November 30, 2016. 3 Natural Gas Intelligence Hits: 6
MTR-2016-05.pdf particularly strong through April 2016 (9.2% annual growth). One of the larger retailers in this sector, Home Depot Inc., reported that customers spent $60 per trip this year, which is the highest level since the first quarter of 2006. 1 it is unclear if others will reverse (i.e., less dining out if gasoline prices increase). May 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 The Wall Street Journal, “Home Depot Tops Views, Boosts Guidance,” May 17, 2016. Sector Sales as a Share of Hits: 6
MTR-2016-02.pdf tax collections in March and April, when corporations remit their final payments for tax year 2015. February 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 will be released March 25. 2 Third quarter mining profits from the “Quarterly Financial Report”, U.S. Census Bureau. Sector Dollar Amounts Growth Share 2013-14 2014-15 Rate of Total Wholesale Trade $410.0 Hits: 6
MTR-2015-08.pdf 9 Share of PA Employment 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% Data Sources: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (Deposit Market Share Reports) and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Financial Activities, Depository Credit Intermediation, Pennsylvania). 1 Amounts in billions. Deposits attributed to Pennsylvania banking activity. 2 Annual average growth since 2006. 3 Thousands of payroll jobs. August 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Aug-15 $1,868 $1,848 $20 Growth 4.3% 4.1% 23.7% FYTD Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf they spent the first round of Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) and how they would spend a second-round payment. Respondents reported the share of the payment used for the following categories: spending on essentials, spending on non-essentials, donations, savings or paying down debt. For first-round EIPs, those surveyed reported spending 18.2% on essentials (i.e., daily living expenses), 7.7% on non-essentials (i.e., hobbies, leisure) and Hits: 6
MER-2014-06.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% n.a. 2.52% 2.67% 2.44% 2.53% June 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 6
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2022 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2023) reported by the PUC, (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3) projects collections for Hits: 6
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2021 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2022) reported by the PUC, (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3) discusses two potential Hits: 6
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2020 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2021) reported by the Public Utility Commission (PUC), (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3 Hits: 6
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2019 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2020) reported by the Public Utility Commission (PUC), (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3 Hits: 6
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf which required all internet sellers with annual sales above $10,000 in the state to collect tax or comply with reporting requirements. The revised estimate of this provision increases revenues by roughly $200 million. This is a permanent gain.  The 2019, the IFO submitted five PBB plans and three tax credit reviews to the PBB Board for their review. These reports represent the first year of a five-year cycle where all agencies under the governor’s jurisdiction and all tax Hits: 6
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf  Per Act 120 of 2010:  Initial (May 1) and Official (June 15) revenue estimate.  Five-Year Outlook Report (November 15).  Annual Revenue Conference (January 31).  Two Studies: (1) Sales and Use Tax, (2) Shared Risk Pension not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental Hits: 6
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf income. This figure includes all types of property taxes: school district, county and municipal. Based on property tax collection data reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), the IFO estimates that 70 Armstrong and Indiana). Therefore, the data are presented in 38 county groups, which is largely consistent with how they are reported in the PUMS dataset. These data show that the statewide property tax burden for homeowners age 65 or older is Hits: 6
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf prior year  IFO projects six years needed to return to pre-pandemic level Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now than 2019  Combined reporting vs rate reduction: what is the trade off? March 11, 2021 2 General Fund Financial Statement (Jan 2021) March 11 Hits: 6
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Oct-12 Aug Sept Oct-13 8.0% 7 Hits: 6
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Jul-12 May Jun Jul-13 8.1% 7.5% 7.5% Hits: 6
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose all methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO will seek to establish collaborative relationships with the General Assembly, executive agencies and various non-governmental use available state, federal and private data sources to expand the types of information and analysis available to policy makers. Reports The IFO publishes monthly reports highlighting the latest economic releases and revenue trends. In addition, the office publishes a quarterly Hits: 6
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Oct-12 7.9% 170.3 4.8% Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Oct-12 8.1% 14.0 1.6% Hits: 6
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx 1 Tax Credit Methodology Meet with stakeholders and agency staff. ▪ Request data from agencies: DCED, DOR, PHMC. ▪ Agencies review draft reports. ▪ All invited to submit comments. Review relevant studies over past decade. ▪ Government, academic and industry. ▪ Benchmark PA tax credit to the last five years. ▪ The merger of Securities into the Department of Banking and Securities impacts historical trends in the report. ▪ Educational programs are shifting to professional outreach and targeted education efforts . January 24, 2019 14 Recommendations ▪ Report percent of assets Hits: 5
SR2017-03.pdf Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Methodology This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across Hits: 5
RB_2023_03_Rainy_Day_Fund.pdf The Pew Charitable Trusts recently released a report on Rainy Day and General Fund balances for all 50 states based on enacted fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 budgets. 1 The balances reflect amounts reported for the start of the fiscal year, and amounts realized by the end of the fiscal year will differ. The Hits: 5
RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdf nursing home rates for private and county facilities. 6 To determine a comparable hospital rate, data from the 2022 Hospital Report were used to calculate an average daily rate 1 The Wall Street Journal, The Upheaval at America’s Disappearing Nursing 3) enhanced facility assessment requirements. 9 Currently, these proposals are in a standard 60-day comment period. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Frank Lill. Questions regarding this report can be directed to flill@ifo.state.pa.us. 7 Pennsylvania Hits: 5
QRR_2016Q1.pdf detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues for the first Hits: 5
QRR_2015Q3.pdf annual and quarterly revenue estimates are available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. General Fund Overview General Fund revenues for the third Hits: 5
Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf not performed its own analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 7/15/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS by a new member. The PSERS normal cost is based on an average of the costs for all members. PSERS reports that the cost for a new member is approximately 3%. Sources: SERS 2014 Actuarial Report (June 2015) and PSERS June Hits: 5
Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf not performed its own analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 4/11/2016 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS by a new member. The PSERS normal cost is based on an average of the costs for all members. PSERS reports that the cost for a new member is approximately 3%. Sources: SERS 2014 Actuarial Report (June 2015) and PSERS June Hits: 5
Pirates_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf IFO Releases Economic Impact Report on the Pittsburgh Pirates and PNC Park Harrisburg, PA - July 10, 2024 - At the request of Pennsylvania State Representatives Timothy broad study that quantifies all economic activity related to direct spending for team operations and fans who attend games. The report examines (1) the general relationship between team spending, wins, fan attendance and the economic footprint; (2) the 2023 economic footprint Hits: 5
Phillies_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf IFO Releases Economic Impact Report on the Philadelphia Phillies and Citizens Bank Park Harrisburg, PA - July 10, 2024 - At the request of Pennsylvania State Representatives broad study that quantifies all economic activity related to direct spending for team operations and fans who attend games. The report examines (1) the general relationship between team spending, wins, fan attendance and the economic footprint; (2) the 2023 economic footprint Hits: 5
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf given funding levels? ▪ How does PA compare to other states and U.S.? April 27, 2021 1 Common Issues Across Reports PBB reports reflect the significant impact of Covid-19 ▪ Pandemic affected agency caseloads, staffing, operations and related performance data ▪ In some cases Hits: 5
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf with legislative staff agency template submissions, research benchmarks with other states, update to PBB Board Dec final template submissions, begin report drafts Jan 2019 provide drafts to agencies, agency edits, final meetings, submit to Board Jan 14 January 22, 2019 3 than historical years.  Budget year not included. January 22, 2019 4 First-Year Goals for PBB Plans Build the report foundation for future years.  Easily read and expandable. Not text dense.  Create flexible data template to be used Hits: 5
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf PBB (prospective) vs Traditional (incremental)  Metrics are an integral part of the appropriation process  Traditional: metrics might be reported, but play no material role Significant time spent to determine actual input values  Actual spending, actual FTEs, allocation of  Request efficiency metrics previously not compiled by agencies  Many more state and county benchmarks Year 3: further streamline reports, more outcome metrics  Limit number of activities (set dollar or percentage threshold)  Use other methods: statistical analysis and Hits: 5
MTR-2017-05.pdf were encouraging (3.2% growth), but additional data are needed to establish a new trend. 1 May 2017 Monthly Trends Report 1 Excludes impact of tax law changes and transfers. 2 See https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/. Sales Tax Revenue Growth Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 5
MTR-2016-10.pdf wage growth, and possibly higher real and nominal economic growth for Pennsylvania and the U.S. October 2016 Monthly Trends Report Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. PA Annual Wage Growth 1 U Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 5
MTR-2016-08.pdf is unclear whether residential prices in PA will follow the same trend as the national average. August 2016 Monthly Trends Report Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Notes: Average retail prices are measured in cents per kilowatt-hour. Average retail prices Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 5
MTR-2016-06.pdf employment growth and second quarter GDP will provide key insights to the U.S. economic outlook. June 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 The Wall Street Journal, “Economic Gauges Raise Specter of Recession,” June 19, 2016. Notes: 3-month average growth rates Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 5
MTR-2016-03.pdf path, or represents an unusual data point due to weak year-end bonuses or seasonal hiring. March 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 See Table SQ5N under the “State Quarterly Personal Income” link at http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm. 2 Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 5
MTR-2016-01.pdf contractors. It also excludes most partners employed in partnerships as well as owners of S corporations. January 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State Area Employment Data- base. Data exclude military personnel and agricultural workers. 2015 Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 5
MTR-2015-11.pdf S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1,808 $1,796 $12 Growth 4.3% 3.8% 374 Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 5
MTR-2015-10.pdf 4% next year if Social Security recipients are to receive a 2.0% COLA in 2017. October 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Oct-15 $2,132 $2,109 $23 Growth -4.9% -4.6% -27.8% FYTD Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 5
MTR-2015-07.pdf data: CPS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16-19 51.9% 48.8% 44.4% 40.9% Monthly Trends Report General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul 2015 $2,135 $2,097 $38 Growth -4.9% 5.1% -84 Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf COVID-19 pandemic have reduced demand for natural gas in 2020, which is causing prices to decline even further. PA Reports Lower Confidence in Ability to Pay Mortgage than U.S. Average The U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey July 2 to July 7 on current trends related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Pennsylvania households that held a mortgage reported that 83.2% paid the previous month’s mortgage, which was lower than the national average (86.1%). A higher Hits: 5
MER-2015-06.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor 2.0% -0.1% 0.0% n.a. 2.53% 2.05% 2.12% 2.33% June 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 5
MER-2015-04.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 2.0% ‐0.1% 0.0% n.a. 2.67% 2.00% 1.96% 2.06% April 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 5
MER-2015-03.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.5% ‐0.2% ‐0.1% n.a. 2.73% 1.64% 2.00% 1.96% March 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 5
MER-2015-01.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% n.a. 2.67% 2.18% 2.17% 1.64% January 2015 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 5
MER-2014-12.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% n.a. 3.04% 2.35% 2.24% 2.22% December 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 5
MER-2014-08.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% n.a. 2.78% 2.53% 2.58% 2.34% August 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 5
MER-2014-07.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% n.a. 2.60% 2.48% 2.53% 2.57% July 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 5
MER-2014-05.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% n.a. 2.16% 2.73% 2.67% 2.44% May 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 5
MER-2014-02.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by 1.9% 1.5% 1.6% n.a. 1.89% 3.04% 2.67% 2.67% February 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 5
MER-2014-01.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% n.a. 2.02% 2.75% 3.04% 2.67% January 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households Hits: 5
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2023 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2024) reported by the PUC, (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3) projects collections for Hits: 5
House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf and (2) the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education ($825 million in 2021). • Act 128 of 2020: Enacts administrative and reporting changes for SERS and PSERS. The act requires both systems to conduct prescribed stress testing of their systems. The IFO will compile those data in a report that summarizes outcomes and calculate the ratio of projected employer pension contributions to projected state revenues. August 19, 2021 1 Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report uses a cost-to-carry approach for current year expenditures due to the current budget impasse. This approach holds spending Hits: 5
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Non-farm personal income in CY 2019 by county reported by the BEA is the base for county income. That measure is then adjusted to account for several factors. The the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE). School district revenues are summed to their respective counties based on how they are reported by PDE. The analysis does not attempt to apportion multi-county school districts across counties. County and municipal revenues are Hits: 5
2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2023, which will the volume of production, and do not provide a measure of tax burden relative to natural gas sales. Therefore, this report computes an annual effective tax rate (ETR) for all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal to Hits: 5
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Sept-12 Jul Aug Sept-13 8 Hits: 5
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a r c h 2 0 1 3 Jan 7.9% 195.0 4.4% 11.4% 73.8 Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report M a r c h 2 0 1 3 Jan 8.2% 4.0 0.3% -1.8% 24.6% Hits: 5
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Dec 7.8% 201.0 4.3% 12 Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Dec 7.9% 2.3 3.0% -3 Hits: 5
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 181.7 4.3% 11.1% Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 13.4 1.4% 0.4% Hits: 5
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 May 8.2% 99.3 5.6% 8.7% 79 6% -12.9 3.49 1.3% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 Jul-11 8.1% 0.0 1.4% 2.6% Hits: 5
Pensions IFO - Pensions IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Pensions Database Search Database Search - 30 Results genReport Generate Report • Search Form • Results Bill # Subject Printer # Sponsor Synopsis HR 28 Summary • Early Retirement Benefits • Studies 0268 Merski Would direct the service as a municipal police officer if the service was conducted within the Commonwealth. ... read more HB 778 Summary • Actuarial Reporting • Studies 0727 Conklin Would change due dates associated with annual stress test reports. SERS stress test would be required to Hits: 5
About IFO policy it analyzes, does not make policy recommendations and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Per the statute that created the office, all staff "shall be appointed without regard to political affiliation and Policy & Analysis for the School District of Philadelphia where she managed the district's multiyear financial plan projections and financial reporting. Ms. Litman also conducted policy analysis related to various funding proposals, and previously worked as a Senior Managing Consultant with Hits: 5
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf leakage (e.g., 5%- 10% leakage = $4m-$8m per year) ▪ DCED should compile and track performance metrics prior to 2028 report January 10, 2023 5 #3 Rural Jobs and Investment Purpose: Invest in rural businesses that have difficulty accessing capital ▪ DCED deployed to 4 rural businesses in 4 counties (Adams, Berks, Luzerne and Mercer) ▪ 106 jobs created or retained ▪ Unclear from reports whether firms had sufficient time to fully deploy new capital Recommendations ▪ More effective as DCED loan program | repaid loans could Hits: 4
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - State Tax Comparison Page 1 Methodology and Data Sources This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Energy Information AnswerConnect and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) per capita state and local tax revenues across states and (2) the distribution of state and local taxes Hits: 4
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf Population (000s) Age Group % Change ('22 to '30) Cumulative Change from 2022 (000s) March 31, 2023 Page 6 A recent report by the Congressional Research Service found that 20% of filers that claimed the federal tax credit reported AGI under $15,000, nearly 40% reported AGI between $15,000 to $50,000, and the remaining 40% reported AGI Hits: 4
RB_2024_07_Budget_Update.pdf Office (IFO) publishes an annual five-year projection of General Fund revenues and expenditures each November. For November 2023, the report projected General Fund operating deficits of -$624 million (FY 23-24), -$2.0 billion (FY 24-25) and -$3.0 tax law changes (-$304 million). • For FY 25-26, the expenditure growth rate is from the IFO five-year outlook report. It assumes that basic education funding grows by 2.4%, Department of Human Services by 5.2%, and personnel-related Hits: 4
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf future students during the budget window. 3 These amounts include a pro-ration to Pennsylvania for borrowers who did not report their state location ($92.0 billion, 3.6 million borrowers). For data see https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/portfolio generally comparable to the U.S. average. For 2019, IRS data show that 19.7% of all income tax filers reported more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income on the federal tax return. For Pennsylvania, the share was the same Hits: 4
QRR_2017Q3.pdf 4). The most recent publication detailing these estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its revenue estimates with actual revenue collec- tions. The report also provides context for the vari- ances between estimates and actual collections. For more detail on revenue growth rates by Hits: 4
QRR_2017Q2.pdf Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW APRIL TO JUNE Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by Hits: 4
QRR_2017Q1.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JANUARY TO MARCH Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve‐ nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec‐ tions. For more detail on revenue growth rates by Hits: 4
QRR_2016Q4.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW OCTOBER TO DECEMBER Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth Hits: 4
QRR_2016Q3.pdf most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions (page 3). For more detail on revenue growth Hits: 4
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018-19 to 2023-24, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY Hits: 4
PICPA_Presentation.pdf 7 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Annual Growth Rates, Income Reported on PA Tax Return Capital Gains, Rent-Royalties, Dividends Business Profits Wages- Salaries Anticipated Tax Cut Fiscal Cliff 5-Year Note: Percentages in parentheses represent share of total debt. Per capital debt levels for all PA consumers with a credit report. Includes family members of such consumers. Source: Federal Reserve Board of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit Hits: 4
NGQU_2024_Q1.pdf have been constrained in recent quarters due to unusually high storage levels. According to the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, U.S. natural gas storage at the end of 2024 Q1 was 23.4% higher than the prior year. Furthermore in $/MMBtu), is a weighted average spot price at two major PA hubs. Source: Production volume and well counts are reported by DEP. Price data are from Natural Gas Intelligence. Natural Gas Quarterly Update January to March 2024 Q1 INDEPENDENT FISCAL Hits: 4
NGPR_2024_Q3.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Third Quarter 2024 Natural Gas Production Report July to September 2024 This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), the U.S. Energy in $/MMBtu), is a weighted average spot price at two major PA hubs. Source: Production volume and well counts are reported by DEP. Price Data are from Natural Gas Intelligence. Notable trends for 2024 Q3 include: • • Production volume totaled 1,838 Hits: 4
NGIFE-2015.pdf February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐3, which reported unconventional gas well impact fee collections for calendar year (CY) 2014 along with three potential scenarios for CY 2015 collections deduction of post‐ production costs). Endnotes 1. Data collected from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil and gas production reports from 2011 to 2015 (last accessed February 16, 2016) and spud well reports (last accessed February 10, 2016). 2. Pursuant Hits: 4
Newsstand_February_2020.pdf Federal Balance of Payments Estimated for Federal Fiscal Year 2018 The Office of the New York State Comptroller released a report that examines the distribution of federal budg- et receipts and expenditures across states in Federal Fiscal Year (FFY) 2018. Some farms. Income Tax Breaks for Seniors Estimated at $1.5 Billion The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released a report that discusses tax breaks targeted to seniors. Pennsylvania is one of three states (Illinois and Mississippi) that exempt all private Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Philadelphia 2018: The State of the City The PEW Charitable Trusts released a report on Philadelphia that shows bullish economic trends since the start of the year. The city accounts for roughly 12% of consecutive year. These factors produced stronger-than-anticipated revenues for wage, sales, business, property, and real estate transfer taxes. The report also discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for 2017 The U.S. Bureau Hits: 4
MTR-2016-09.pdf since dairy purchases comprise a little more than ten percent of consumer spending on groceries. 5 September 2016 Monthly Trends Report Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Milk Marketing Board, “Wholesale Retail Pricing,” Jan 2014-Aug 2016. Notes: Prices reflect the average retail price or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2016 - MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT SELECT GENERAL FUND TAX REVENUES - ANNUAL GROWTH RATES Sales and Use Tax — Non-Motor Corporate Net Income Tax Realty Transfer Hits: 4
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 blank. - FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY Hits: 4
MER-2013-12.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the 1.8% 0.9% 1.2% n.a. 1.72 2.62 2.72 2.96 December 2013 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2 Hits: 4
MER-2013-11.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Nov-12 Sept Oct Nov-13 8.1% Hits: 4
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2018 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2019) reported by the Public Utility Commission (PUC), (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3 Hits: 4
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report (1) analyzes calendar year (CY) 2017 impact fee collections (remitted in April 2018) reported by the Public Utility Commission (PUC), (2) details the number of wells and fee schedule by operating year and (3 Hits: 4
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Revenue_Analyst.pdf policy it analyzes, does not make policy recommendations, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Position Summary A Revenue analysis, monitoring and tracking of assigned revenue and budget area(s). Analysts will (1) provide support (if assigned) for special reports and projects undertaken by the office, (2) general support for all major and regular reports issued by the office and Hits: 4
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Fiscal_Analyst.pdf policy it analyzes, does not make policy recommendations and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Per the statute that created the office, all staff “shall be appointed without regard to political affiliation and analysis, monitoring and tracking of assigned revenue and budget area(s). Analysts will (1) provide support (if assigned) for special reports and projects undertaken by the office, (2) general support for all major and regular reports issued by the office and Hits: 4
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s five-year economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY Hits: 4
IFO ppt.pdf Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Background • Public Act 120 of 2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year outlook report. – Release date is November 15 th . – Consider economics, demographics, revenues and expenditures. • Act also requires Office to convene a revenue Office has combined two events. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Five–Year Outlook Report • Report and presentations will be posted on website: www.ifo.state.pa.us • Modeling is simple and transparent. – Projections motivated Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report finds that policymakers will face a shortfall of $1.85 billion in FY 2015-16. This includes $171 million for Hits: 4
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf Budget Outlook presentation. Page 33 of the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28 report released on November 15, 2022 provides additional detail on projected DHS expenditures from fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 to FY and FY 2027-28. February 7, 2023 Page 4 Representative Keefer requested a copy of the 50-state tax burden report. A copy of the IFO’s State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison report released on January 19 Hits: 4
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2022, which will the volume of production, and do not provide a measure of tax burden relative to natural gas sales. Therefore, this report computes an annual effective tax rate (ETR) for all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal to Hits: 4
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2021, which will volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax burden relative to natural gas sales. Therefore, this report computes an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) for all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal Hits: 4
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf Vertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2020, which will volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax burden relative to natural gas sales. Therefore, this report computes an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) for all wells in operation during the year. The ETR is equal Hits: 4
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Aug-12 Jun Jul Aug-13 8.1% 7.5% Hits: 4
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Jun-12 Apr May Jun-13 8.0% 7.6% 7.5% Hits: 4
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 May-12 Mar Apr May-13 7.9% 7.9% 7.6% n Hits: 4
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Apr-12 Feb Mar Apr-13 7.8% 8.1% 7 Hits: 4
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Nov-12 7.7% 138.7 4.2% Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Nov-12 7.8% 11.8 1.4% Hits: 4
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Jul 8.3% 104.3 4.2% 8.7% Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 4.1% Hits: 4
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Jun 8.2% 66.7 4.7% Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months, values held constant. Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators 2011.4 Hits: 4
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 8.1% 156.7 6.1% 8.0% 76.4 54 1,362 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 7.4% 7.4 6.5% 10.2% 11.7% 8 Hits: 4
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf Credit Methodology Meet with stakeholders and agency staff.  Request data from agencies: DCED, DOR, PHMC.  Agencies review draft reports.  All invited to submit comments. Review relevant studies over past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA last five years.  The merger of Securities into the Department of Banking and Securities impacts historical trends in the report.  Educational programs are shifting to professional outreach and targeted education efforts. January 24, 2019 14 Recommendations Report percent of Hits: 3
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf separates incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The amount reported for each incentive is an estimate of the dollars claimed or awarded each fiscal year. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts of 2017, the IFO is reviewing the Manufacturing, Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Reports will be posted to the IFO website in January 2023. Tax Credits and Other Incentives Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief Hits: 3
Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf This report presents Pennsylvania tax credit and other incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24. It is separated into four categories: tax credits, spending or grants, job training programs and loan programs. The amount reported is an estimate of the dollars claimed or awarded each fiscal year. For FY 2023-24, amounts are budgeted, authorized Hits: 3
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf Credit Methodology Meet with stakeholders and agency staff.  Request data from agencies: DCED, DOR, PHMC.  Agencies review draft reports.  All invited to submit comments. Review relevant studies over past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA last five years.  The merger of Securities into the Department of Banking and Securities impacts historical trends in the report.  Educational programs are shifting to professional outreach and targeted education efforts. January 24, 2019 14 Recommendations Report percent of Hits: 3
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf from the Census ACS excludes capital gains, which will accrue disproportionately to high income households. From 2012 to 2018, total reported capital gains on federal income tax returns increased by roughly 56 percent, or 7.7 percent per annum during the than the growth rate of other income sources. Federal tax data reveal that approximately 85 percent of capital gains are reported by taxpayers that would be included in the upper income group for the purpose of this analysis. If capital gains Hits: 3
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf IFO).  The IFO cannot comment on whether policy is good /bad or better/worse than current law.  The report provides a general framework for analysis of the proposal. The IFO defers to the committees of the General Assembly for 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 11 School Property Tax Forecast Recent school property tax growth rates based on reported data: FY 2006-07 5.9% FY 2007-08 4.6% FY 2008-09* 4.7% FY 2009-10* 3 Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf 3% -25% 20% S&P 500 Index 4% -39% 24% 10% 20% -7% n.a. Note: Net Profits include income reported by independent contractors, sole proprietors, partners and S corporation shareholders on the state tax return. Capital Gains and Dividends are 26 Total 0 5 -17 -15 14 Note: Growth rates for April and May are based on weekly Lottery sales reports. Lottery Sales and Revenues May 26, 2020 19 Amounts Growth Rate 18-19 19-20 20-21 18-19 19- Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf show nonmotor growing by $1 million (0.1%) and motor vehicle falling by $11 million (-3.8%).  Other sources reporting increases were personal income tax, realty transfer tax and nontax revenues. Inheritance and cigarette taxes registered declines. Change in General 73.5 $701.1 $164.1 $806.1 percent change 1.8% 3.6% 2.1% 3.0% Revenue Trends Report March 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions March Percent March Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf million (16.9%) increase in withholding deposits. The resulting shift of revenue compared to last year’s pattern will weaken reported revenue growth in February. o Strong quarterly estimated payments resulted in an increase of $54 million (15.2%) in nonwithholding 8 $712.8 $278.4 $1,074.7 percent change 8.2% 5.2% 4.6% 4.0% Revenue Trends Report January 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions January Percent January Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change Hits: 3
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The reviewing the Educational Improvement and Opportunity Scholarship, the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Mixed-Use Development and Brewers’ tax credits. Reports will be available to the public in January 2022. Economic Development Incentives Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2021 Independent Hits: 3
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The Program, Resource Enhancement and Protections Program, Entertainment and Economic Enhancement, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zones tax credits. Reports will be available to the public in January 2021. Economic Development Incentives Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2020 Independent Hits: 3
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a long-term economic and budget outlook for Pennsylvania, according to director Matthew Knittel. The report, entitled The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, will be available on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can use to assess the fiscal sustainability of current tax and spending Hits: 3
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf Michigan Property Tax Reform. o Released last week. HB 76 and SB 76: To be Released Soon. Five-Year Outlook Report – November 15. o Projections for FY 2013-14 to FY 2018-19. o Demographics, Economics, Expenditures, Revenues. o Special Reports. o Last Year: Pensions and Affordable Care Act. 24 . Sept . 2013 23 Property Tax Reform Last year, IFO analyzes HB Hits: 3
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf January.  Office Does Not Make Policy Recommendations. 12.Feb.2015 3 The Independent Fiscal Office  Two Regular Monthly Reports. • Monthly Economic Report. • Monthly Revenue Trends Report.  Special Studies (at request of Gen. Assembly): • HB 1776 and SB 76 – Property Tax Reform Hits: 3
Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf not performed its own analysis of pension funding. • Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 3/26/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 3/26/2015 8 Unfunded Accrued Liabilities Most Recent Actuarial Valuations Note: Dollar amounts in billions. Sources: SERS 2013 Actuarial Report (June 2014) and PSERS June 30, 2014 Actuarial Valuation (January 2015) 3/26/2015 9 Unfunded Liability History ‐$20 ‐$10 Hits: 3
PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf 62 2,894 7.25 43,414 Note: Millions of dollars. Data sourced from various system projections, releases and financial reports, unless noted otherwise. For year ranges (ex: 2005-10), Employer Contribution Rate and State Contributions are averages. System Return is 5-year performance as noted in system CAFR. Unfunded Liability is final year UAL. Calculations by the IFO. 1 SERS reported on calendar year basis except for Employer Contribution Rate. Includes all funds. 2 SERS 2020 employer contributions include $1.1 Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf to measure benefits over time Agencies lack outcome data related to state funds for county programs ▪ Decentralized, outdated IT systems report required measures only ▪ Need dedicated resources and standardized measures at the local level January 9, 2023 2 Common Themes (Continued program to reduce consumer healthcare costs ▪ Federal American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act funding for initiatives in DDAP and DCNR PBB reports reflect the significant impact of COVID-19 ▪ More variance noted in agency resources (FTEs and funding) and program outcomes January Hits: 3
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf 3% -20% 13% S&P 500 Index 5% -39% 24% 10% 20% -2% n.a. Note: Net Profits include income reported by independent contractors, sole proprietors, partners and S corporation shareholders on the state tax return. Capital Gains and Dividends are 10 -37 -27 Total 0 5 -17 -14 21 Note: Growth rates for May are based on weekly Lottery sales reports. Lottery Sales and Revenues June 22, 2020 18 Amounts Growth Rate 18-19 19-20 20-21 18-19 19- Hits: 3
NGQU_2024_Q2.pdf have been constrained in recent quarters due to unusually high storage levels. According to the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, U.S. natural gas storage at the end of 2024 Q2 was 8.8% higher than the prior year. Furthermore 48 Growth Rate -78.3% -81.1% -62.8% -24.9% 1.9% Source: Production volume and well counts are reported by DEP. Price data are from Natural Gas Intelligence. Natural Gas Summary: 2024 Q2 2023 2024 Note: Growth rates are Hits: 3
NGQU_2023_Q4.pdf in $/MMBtu), is a weighted average spot price at two major PA hubs. Source: Production volume and well counts are reported by DEP. Price data are from Natural Gas Intelligence. Natural Gas Quarterly Update October to December 2023 Q4 INDEPENDENT FISCAL show that the Pennsylvania and Henry Hub prices ticked up to $2.37 and $3.24, respectively. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa Hits: 3
NGQU_2023_Q3.pdf in $/MMBtu), is a weighted average spot price at two major PA hubs. Source: Production volume and well counts are reported by DEP. Price data are from Natural Gas Intelligence. Natural Gas Summary: 2023 Q3 Natural Gas Quarterly Update July to the Henry Hub price increased to $2.85 while the Pennsylvania average price increased to $1.61. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa Hits: 3
NGQU_2023_Q2.pdf 45 Growth Rate 219.5% 93.5% 12.5% -45.0% -78.3% Sources: Production volume and well counts are reported by DEP. Price data are from Natural Gas Intelligence. Natural Gas Summary: 2023Q2 2022 2023 Note: Growth rates are year- July and August was $1.16, a decline of $6.70 from the same period in 2022. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa Hits: 3
NGQU_2023_Q1.pdf 221.8% 94.7% 12.0% -45.7% Natural Gas Summary: 2023Q1 2022 Sources: Production volume and well counts are reported by DEP. Price data are from Bentek Energy. Note: Growth rates are year-over-year. Production in billion cubic feet 59 for the Pennsylvania average, represents a further decline and the lowest quarterly price since 2020 Q4. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman and Rachel Flaugh. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa Hits: 3
MTR-2017-08.pdf county-level data that suggest a substantial increase in the Pennsylvania opioid overdose death rate for 2016. 1 The DEA report suggests that the opioid overdose death rate for 2016 will increase to 16.1 (2,060 opioid deaths), a 4 infections. The study finds that currently it would cost the U.S. over $100 billion to treat those that are reportedly infected. 6 If that study is reasonably accurate, then the actual cost of the opioid crisis could be considerably higher Hits: 3
MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf Monthly Trends Report Independent Fiscal Office Highlights of the October Report October 2015 General Fund revenues declined by $110 million (-4.9%) compared to the same month in the prior year Hits: 3
MQRE_FY24-25_08_2024.pdf intentionally left blank. - FY 2024-25 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2024-25 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense Fund (MLF) and Lottery Fund revenues Act 56) The act provides that goodwill resulting from a bank merger or acquisition and recorded on an institution’s Reports of Condition and Income filed with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) may be deducted from the taxable amount of Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf Drive 3.0% Rise in Pennsylvania Consumer Debt On November 7th, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Report on Household Debt and Credit for 2023 Q3. The report includes per capita debt balances for the population of residents who have a credit report. Based on data for the Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf student loans for six months (renewable), while many auto loan businesses offered optional forbearance. The New York Federal Reserve Bank reported on the status of borrowers in forbearance for a mortgage or auto loan. More individuals opted into auto loan forbearance space combined with low mortgage rates drives demand in an already competitive housing market. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales reached a new 14- year high in the U.S., increasing for the fifth consecutive month Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf increased 18.7%, and used cars increased 45.3% from June 2020. For sales volume, the National Automobile Dealer Association reported that U.S. June car sales grew 18% year-over-year. However, JD Power recently reported that U.S. new car sales are subsiding due to supply constraints and low inventories. Moving forward, industry analysts project Hits: 3
Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania May 13, 2013 Based on new information received after the release of its original report on Medicaid expansion, the Independent Fiscal Office has published a revision. The revised report incorporates (1) a modest reduction in the projected cost savings, (2) an increase in federal funds derived from the gross Hits: 3
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf benefits. Excludes capital gains which are highly skewed to higher income taxpayers. For 2015, 82% of PA capital gains were reported by taxpayers with more than $200k of AGI. If included, capital gains would comprise 10-15% of reported income. Sources: IRS Statistics of Income, Publication 1304, Table 1.5 and Social Security Administration. More U.S. Seniors Are Hits: 3
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2012-13 to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report posted to IFO website: www.ifo.state.pa.us.  Demographic Outlook  New projections from Penn State Data Center Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 4 15.Nov.2012 Some Conventions  Select a base year for comparison purposes.  Report uses FY 2012-13.  Assume base year policy is maintained all future years.  Provide same relative funding levels Hits: 3
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19, provides data and analysis that policymakers and current tax and spending policies. It is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report finds that the Commonwealth faces a long-term structural deficit,” Knittel said. “Furthermore, policymakers will enter FY 2014-15 budget Hits: 3
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force participation rates reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus From PA Labor Force Fund Revenue and Fee Proposals ▪ $2.96 billion – PIT rate increase to 4.49% | Expand tax forgiveness ▪ $209 million – Combined reporting | CNIT rate reduction phase-in ▪ $116 million – Minimum wage increase ▪ $168 million – New municipal fee to fund state police services Hits: 3
Electricity_Update_2024.pdf Reclamation tax credit is $20 million, and the entire amount was awarded in FY 2022-23. For 2021, an IFO report found that the state tax credit subsidized waste coal generation by $2.09 per MWh. 1 Electricity Prices Figure 2 2023, as the average residential price in 2021 was 13.8 cents, 0.7% lower than 2018. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. 1 See Hits: 3
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf Broaden Tax Base Sales – Custom Programming $330 Sales – Storage and Aircraft 160 Insurance Premiums Tax 142 Tax Reform Corporate – Combined Reporting 0 Corporate – Rate Reduction 0 Corporate – NOL Threshold 81 New Severance Tax – 6.5% 294 TOTAL $1,006 Note: millions of dollars. The combined reporting and lower corporate tax rate (6.49%) proposals are effective or phased-in beginning 1/1/19. Source: FY 2017- Hits: 3
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf Prepares Estimates of the Effects of Legislative Proposals 4 For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/about/products. CBO’s reports cover every major area of federal policy, including spending programs, the tax code, and budgetary and economic challenges. The reports often present options for changes in the federal program or tax rules under consideration, but they make no recommendations. CBO Hits: 3
Pensions are posted on this website and available in the “Actuarial Notes” link below. The IFO also publishes statutory and special reports on pension issues in the Commonwealth available in the “Special Reports” link. Actuarial Notes Legislation Enacted Special Reports Retirement Legislation Database IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Dec 03) PA natural gas production for 2024Q3 decreased by 1.7% from the prior year, while new wells drilled was down 38.2%. New wells for CY 2024 are on pace to reach the lowest level since CY 2007. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/mOEhv9EsGq • (Dec 02) The Commonwealth collected $2.93 billion in General Fund revenues for November, $130 million (-4.2%) less than November 2023. FY 24-25 revenues total $16.40 billion and are $119 million (+0.7%) above IFO projections. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/r31D84ngFN • (Nov 27) The IFO published a summary of the 2024 SERS stress test report and projects that General Fund employer pension contributions will total $22.0 billion over the next 20 years if baseline assumptions hold. See the IFO Report at ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/wGVDZxD5HX Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale Hits: 3
WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf Spending Through 2018 Capital Reserve Fund, $329, 39% Public Infrastructure Construction, $259, 31% Emergency Prep./Public Safety, $110, 13% Not Reported, $52, 6% Storm Water/Sewer Systems, $20, 2% Env. Programs, $18, 2% Other, $63, 7% July 14, 2020 4 Note  State liquid fuels taxes down in FY19-20, projected to decline further in FY20-21.  IFO to release report estimating local revenue losses (county, municipal, school). Recent Trends – Decline and Deceleration July 14, 2020 10 2018 2019 2020 Q4 Hits: 2
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf Panther Creek) | new dynamic, impact unclear January 24, 2022 6 #3 Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Economic and environmental impacts ▪ Report assumes that ~20% of coal refuse burned incentivized by tax credit ▪ Highly dependent on wholesale electricity price and other revenues repeat donors (effectively excludes new donors) ▪ Require organizations to submit demographic, income and outcome data ▪ Require DCED to publish annual report of all relevant data January 24, 2022 10 CreationDate: 2022-01-24 14:39:18 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft Hits: 2
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf hearing, several members also raised questions regarding the revenue proposals contained in the Executive Budget. The IFO will release a report later this month that contains an analysis of those proposals. Thank you for the opportunity to submit additional information on 2 2,881.7 519.9 626.0 106.1 Note: Includes all first-time post-secondary students enrolled at reporting institutions. Degree-granting institutions grant associate or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Source: U Hits: 2
RTR-2014-12.pdf the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 5.6%.  Tax revenues increased by 287.3 $745.7 $469.7 $669.5 percent change 12.2% 6.1% 7.7% 2.4% Revenue Trends Report December 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) December Percent December Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-11.pdf the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 3.7%.  Tax revenues increased by 38.3 $458.5 $341.9 $329.7 percent change 2.3% 4.7% 5.5% 1.2% Revenue Trends Report November 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) November Percent November Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-10.pdf the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 4.1%.  Tax revenues increased by 144.2 $420.2 $336.8 $325.3 percent change 7.0% 5.2% 5.4% 1.2% Revenue Trends Report October 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) October Percent October Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 Hits: 2
RTR-2014-07.pdf 83.4 $83.4 $135.4 $15.1 percent change 4.4% 4.4% 2.1% 0.1% Revenue Trends Report July 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) July Percent July Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 5.2.2 ModDate: 2014-08-13 15:21:31 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.9 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Pages 2 and 3.xlsx Hits: 2
RTR-2013-10.pdf 54.1 $125.8 $26.6 $610.0 percent change 2.7% 1.6% 0.4% 2.2% Revenue Trends Report October 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions October Percent October Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 2 ModDate: 2013-11-12 17:22:50 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.8 (Windows) Title: Page 1 - Revenue Trends Report - October 2013.pdf Hits: 2
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf part and full-time job losses appear to be accounted for  Who is receiving PUA payments?  Many states report serious issues with identity and other fraud October 29, 2020 4 PA Employment Recovers Thru July, Then Moderates October 29 accommodation, travel  Businesses undergo transformation | teleworking and automation  Higher worker productivity = fewer employment opportunities October 29, 2020 15 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us October 29, 2020 16 CreationDate: 2020-10- Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf the three-month and twelve-month periods, respectively.  Inheritance tax collections declined by $9 million (-14.6%). Revenue Trends Report September 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions September Percent September Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2012-10-12 14:07:29 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - September 2012.pdf Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf by $9 million (38.5%). The three and twelve-month increases were 12.5% and 9.2%, respectively. Revenue Trends Report October 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions October Percent October Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2012-11-20 21:56:24 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - October 2012.pdf Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf year. Receipts for the latest three and twelve-month periods increased by 18.1% and 12.4%, respectively. Revenue Trends Report November 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions November November November Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2012-12-14 15:25:21 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - November 2012.pdf Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf 134.1 $997.6 $369.9 $887.4 percent change 7.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3% Revenue Trends Report May 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions May Percent May Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2013-06-19 20:17:28 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.7 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - May 2013.pdf Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf 79.0 $918.6 $217.5 $918.6 percent change -3.0% 3.4% 2.8% 3.4% Revenue Trends Report June 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions June Percent June Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change Acrobat 10.1.7 ModDate: 2013-07-03 20:56:36 Producer: Adobe Acrobat 10.1.7 Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - June 2013.pdf Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf 99.2 $99.2 $154.3 $898.8 percent change 5.5% 5.5% 2.4% 3.3% Revenue Trends Report July 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions July Percent July Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 2 ModDate: 2013-08-07 16:45:39 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.7 (Windows) Title: Microsoft Word - Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - July 2013 Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf 85.2 $627.6 $248.0 $808.5 percent change -5.0% 4.1% 4.1% 3.0% Revenue Trends Report February 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions February Percent February Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2013-03-12 15:46:42 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.5 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - February 2013.pdf Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf 9%. The three and twelve-month rolling averages displayed growth rates of 28.2% and 12.7%, respectively. Revenue Trends Report December 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions December Percent December Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2013-01-08 17:30:27 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - December 2012.pdf Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf for the first two months of the fiscal year show a significant increase (17%) over the prior year. Revenue Trends Report August 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions August Percent August Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2012-09-17 13:12:20 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.4 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - August 2012.pdf Hits: 2
Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf 162.4 $863.5 $150.7 $878.2 percent change 5.0% 3.8% 1.7% 3.2% Revenue Trends Report April 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions April Percent April Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change 5.2.2 ModDate: 2013-05-09 13:21:26 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.5 (Windows) Title: Revenue Trends Report - Page 1 - April 2013.pdf Hits: 2
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf 585 18,188 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. 1 Actuals through FY 2020-21. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2018-19. Estimated by IFO thereafter. Table 1 Estimate Forecast School District Property Tax Forecast April Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) funding attributable to recipients age 65 and older is based on Department of Revenue PTRR statistical report data. The transfer to the Lottery Fund for the PTRR program that would have occurred in FY 2020-21 was Hits: 2
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf contact your office. Child Welfare Program Funding in Pennsylvania For state fiscal year (SFY) 2017-18, child welfare program spending reported through the Act 148 invoices in Pennsylvania totaled $1,828.3 million and was funded by a combination of state and counties will have to coordinate to ensure that the 50-percent requirement is met on a statewide basis. The reporting of expenditures for federal reimbursement can be lagged up to eight quarters, which means that the final determination of federal Hits: 2
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf Bureau’s 2017 ACS 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) dataset. 3 The analysis assumes that owner-occupied households reported in the ACS would qualify as homestead properties. 4 The analysis assumes that school district property taxes comprise 70 percent of total property tax reported in the U.S. Census Bureau ACS. November 6, 2019 Page 2  The estimated total amount of funds necessary Hits: 2
Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf in March 2019. Your letter requests additional detail regarding the net wage gains displayed in Table 2.6 of the report. Your letter also inquires about reduced work hours and reduced benefits from a higher minimum wage. The attached table presents the gross figures (i.e., the gains prior to any losses) for the tabulations from Table 2.6 of the report. The top portion of the table displays the number of workers who retain employment and their incremental wage gains from Hits: 2
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf reflect the imputation of retirement income (pensions and IRA withdrawals) by the IFO to households that do and do not report the receipt of such income during the year. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS 2  School district property taxes paid: $858 million. 3  County and municipal property taxes paid: $368 million. Revenues reported by PDE and DCED suggest that school district property taxes comprise roughly 70 percent of annual statewide property taxes, while Hits: 2
RB_2024_10_School_Funding.pdf revenue. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education. FY 2023-24 is estimated by the IFO based on General Fund budget data reported by PDE. How Did School Districts Use COVID Funds? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2024 Independent Fiscal Office Page The data also show that funds were used to bolster savings for future spending needs. Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. Expenditure 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 Hits: 2
RB_2024_09_Gaming.pdf 520 Total $1,391 $1,124 $1,594 $2,053 $2,259 $2,431 Source: Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board Revenue Reports. 2 Includes county grants, PA Gaming Economic Development Tourism Fund and PA Race Horse Development Fund. 1 Includes fantasy contests a close substitute, then the expansion likely restrains in-person or retail casino tax revenues. Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us. 1 The following requirements must be met: (1) have a diesel Hits: 2
RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdf can reduce their contributions by 50% for voluntary participation in the Commonwealth’s Get Healthy wellness program. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Joe Shockey. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jshockey@ifo.state.pa.us. 2 The data include most agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction Hits: 2
RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdf 277,186 151,951 429,137 $208.1 $142.5 $350.6 Source: Property Tax/Rent Rebate Program 2021 Statistical Report, Pennsylvania Department of Revenue. Note: Rebate amounts include one-time bonus rebates for claim year 2021 authorized by Act 54 based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2021 American Community Survey (ACS). The IFO adjusts household income reported in the ACS to account for known underreporting of retirement income. Social Security income is grown by 15.1% to Hits: 2
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdf the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows. It should be noted that this does not necessarily imply that the reported income entered or left the state. For example, a migrant may leave a job that is filled by a previously unemployed person. The data do not indicate the type of income reported. It is likely that some of the $2.0 billion in net income left the state (e.g., investment and Hits: 2
RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdf U.S. Census Bureau. Calculations by the IFO. Notes: Household data may include some number of duplicates due to program reporting requirements, and would overstate the share of renter households assisted. Share represents the share of renter-occupied households within the receiving some form of program assistance, these data are not available for all counties. Cumberland County data excluded due to reporting anomalies. CreationDate: 2023-03-07 13:01:06 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-03-07 13:21 Hits: 2
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf smallest average price increase from 2021 to 2022, generated only 6% of its electricity with natural gas. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. State 2018 2022 Growth New York 18.5 22.0 19 Hits: 2
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf 233), 55 to 64 (-3,048) and 65 or older (-5,206). ▪ A net outflow of individuals for returns that reported more than $100,000 of AGI (-4,821) or AGI between $50,000 and $100,000 (-2,363), but a net inflow for returns that reported $10,000 to $50,000 of AGI (2,988). 1 These data generally correspond to tax years 2018 and 2019 Hits: 2
RB-2019-01.pdf collections, and yields a lower ETR. Endnotes 1. Data from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil and gas production reports and spud well reports from 2013 to 2018 (last accessed January 17, 2019). Production data are currently available through November; December is estimated by Hits: 2
RB-2017-5.pdf changes, adjustments are made prior to the rankings to control for such actions. Those adjustments are based on data from reports on state tax actions published by the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), which compiles state tax law changes on an annual basis. Miscellaneous additional revenue adjustments were made by the IFO for certain states based on official state revenue reports. For the purpose of this analysis, only states with populations greater than two million (36 states) are included. 5 States Hits: 2
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf strong income growth, all recorded per capita earnings gains that exceeded 5.0 percent per annum. By contrast, all counties reporting weak income growth reported negative earnings growth, with the exception of Cumberland County, where strong population gains diluted the per capita figures. Independent Fiscal Hits: 2
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf forecasts and analysis depending on requests/data available ▪ Performance Based Budgets (PBB) and Tax Credit reviews ▪ Natural Gas: quarterly production reports, annual impact fee collections January 19, 2022 1 Latest Pennsylvania Demographic Forecast January 19, 2022 2 Age Cohort Number (000s 17,790 $18,520 Note: Millions of dollars. 1 Actuals through FY 2021-22. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO thereafter. For more detail on forecast, see “School District Property Tax Hits: 2
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY Hits: 2
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf 6 5.5 1.9 7.4 Sources: Current Population Survey and PA Department of Labor. +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income o Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security o Social Security income meant to be “supplemental.” o Hits: 2
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf and Industry, Center for Workforce Information & Analysis. 15 PA Labor Force Participation Rates 12.May.2016 +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income. • Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. • Wage income less important. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security. • Social Security income meant to Hits: 2
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf 614 $29,639 $43,838 Avg Annual Growth -0.6% 4.7% 11.8% Note: Includes wage earners only who report that wage compensation comprises at least 90% of taxable income in both years. Filers do not change filing status. First 884 $39,403 $63,007 Avg Annual Growth -1.4% 4.4% 12.9% Note: Includes wage earners only who report that wage compensation comprises at least 90% of taxable income in both years. Filers do not change filing status. First Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf Meetings with legislative staff to discuss key budget issues and performance measures for Year 1 agencies.  PCCD Results First report scheduled for release.  January 2019 to Early March:  PBB plan submitted to PBB Board members for review and activity, analysis of trends and comparison with selected benchmarks from other states, industry standards, national and regional program reviews, audit reports.  Recommendations for additional/alternative measures and continued development. October 15, 2018 13 October 15, 2018 Implications for FY 2019- Hits: 2
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf 0% Note: Figures in 2015 dollars and control for inflation. Per capita amounts are for all consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New 2016-17 Long-Term Living total spending includes $113 million intergovernmental transfer. Source: April 2017 Department of Human Services monthly report and Executive Budget, various years. May 24, 2017 22 Long-Term Imbalance Funding Sources for Senior Programs Avg. Ann. Growth Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf in federal relief fund allocated to PA since March 2020 | American Rescue Plan ESSER funds require LEAs to measure and report outcomes January 26, 2022 4 PDE Metric Highlights (Continued) Child develop. & early learning enrollments below pre-pandemic levels ▪ Pre-K to less than $0.1 million. AGR Metric Highlights Department-wide data collection could be improved by PAIRS ▪ Pennsylvania Inspection Reporting System | currently being implemented in one bureau ▪ System could create efficiencies related to electronic processing in multiple bureaus Inspector efficiency Hits: 2
NGIFE-2018.pdf despite a decline in fee revenues. Endnotes 1. Data from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil and gas production reports and spud well reports from 2013 to 2017 (last accessed January 25, 2018). Production data are currently available through November; December is estimated by Hits: 2
NGIFE-2016.pdf percent), which both reduce the ETR. Endnotes 1. Data from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil and gas production reports and spud well reports from 2011 to 2016 (last accessed January 18, 2017). Production data are currently available through November; December is estimated by Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND November Retail Sales An article by the Wall Street Journal reports that November retail sales, excluding motor vehicle and gasoline sales, remained steady compared to October 2019. Within retail sales, the the prior year. Spending in bars and restaurants also realized a decline compared to the prior month. However, the article reports that online holiday sales increased by 14% over the prior year. U.S. Demographic Trends May Limit Job Expansion A Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_August.pdf STAND Women Drive 80% of Job Growth in Health Care since 2000 On August 14, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of full-time, non-seasonal health care workers grew from 5 million to 9 million since 2000 magnitude. For additional detail on 2019 Q2 pro- duction trends in Pennsylvania, see the IFO’s latest Natural Gas Production Report. Consumer Debt Grows 4.3% On August 13, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released U.S. consumer debt Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_June.pdf June 2018 - National News U.S. Job Openings Exceed the Number of Jobless On June 5, the Wall Street Journal reported that the seasonally adjusted number of job openings was 6.7 million in April, while 6.3 million Americans were tight labor market conditions, many business owners claim they are struggling to find qualified employees to fill job openings and report upward pressure on wages and salaries. U.S. Corporate Profits Increase 4.3% in 2018 Q1 On May 30, the Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf Tariffs Have Disparate Impacts on PA Counties On July 6, the Wall Street Journal published an analysis based on a report from Moody’s that computes the impact of new U.S. and Chinese tariffs. The analysis shows the share of For filers with adjusted gross income (AGI) between $100,000 and $1 million, capital gains increased 44.9%. For filers reporting more than $1 million of AGI, capital gains increased 32.2%. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index increased by Hits: 2
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf 6.0% 0.2% 3.3% 6.0% 0.2% Source: Executive Budgets, various years and IFO five-year outlook reports. Includes $595 million for higher education funding. October 19, 2017 20 Pensions: Employer Contribution Rates 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2017 Act 120 of 2010 2018 Unfunded Liability ~$67 billion Assumed Rate of Return: 7.25% Source: Consolidated Annual Financial Reports and Actuarial Valuations for SERS and PSERS, various years. FY 2017-18 October 19, 2017 21 Gaming Revenue Growth Decelerates Hits: 2
MTR-2018-1.pdf for the year. Non-motor sales and use tax (SUT) collections were unexpectedly flat in January, in spite of retailer reports of strong holiday sales. Motor vehicle SUT collections came in as expected, but are $16 million short of estimate for Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 2
MTR-2017-10.pdf a significant federal income tax rate cut. The IFO’s official estimate assumed that most of that income would be reported in 2017, and would have a positive impact on FY 2017-18 revenues. Currently, it is unclear if federal income Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 2
MTR-2017-07.pdf 2 Average annual growth rate from 2012Q1 to 2017Q1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 See Monthly Trends Report June 2017 for more information. http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/releases. cfm?type=1. 2 The Wall Street Journal Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 2
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf the New York Mercantile Exchange, upon which the Impact Fee schedule is based. Impact Fee collections in millions of dollars, reported by the PUC, with 2021 estimated by the IFO. Average Fee Per Well computed by the IFO. March 31, 2022 3 2021 $233.8 7,567 $2.35 $17,835.4 1.3 Notes: 1 Fees in millions of dollars, reported by the PUC. 2021 is estimated by the IFO. 2 Production data from DEP, in billion cubic feet. 3 Weighted Hits: 2
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 blank. - FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY Hits: 2
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 blank. - FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY Hits: 2
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- blank. - FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly esti- mates for Motor License and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf Automotive and other vehicle dealers (14.4%), building materials and supplies (23.4%) and health and personal care (7.8%) reported strong growth. Food service (-13.7%) and clothing (-12.0%) remain weak relative to September 2019. Pennsylvania Personal Income Grows contract as the decennial Census concludes. Overall, the private sector recorded modest employment gains, while the government and education sectors reported accelerating losses which coincides with the start of the school year. Monthly Economic Update October 2020 Monthly Data Jun-20 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf Low, but Employment Growth Decelerates On August 21, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July state employment report. The data reveal that by July, nearly one-half (529,100, not seasonally adjusted) of the year-over-year (YOY small businesses open and small business revenues in the United States each decreased by 19.1%. The largest declines were reported in the leisure and hospitality (-32.2% open, -47.5% revenue) and retail and transportation (-17.8% open, -14.1% Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf economic growth metric and is defined as the percentage change in output per hour worked for nonfarm businesses. The WSJ reported that U.S. worker productivity showed strong growth in 2020 after a decade of modest gains. Due to the COVID- productivity gains. Another key growth metric is the labor force participation rate (LFPR). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in this rate from 63.3% in February 2020 to 61.5% in March 2021. For Pennsylvania, the Hits: 2
Migration_RB_06_2024.pdf per tax return filed (not shown in table). It should be noted that this does not necessarily imply that the reported income entered or left the state. For example, a migrant may leave a job that is filled by a previously unemployed person. The data do not indicate the type of income reported. It is likely that some of the $2.76 billion in net income left the state (e.g., investment and Hits: 2
Letter_to_JSGC.pdf with your office, the IFO agreed to provide technical analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment The following alterations were made to the IFO’s original submission to JSGC. The page numbers refer to the final report issued on March 1, 2017. The IFO’s original submission has been posted to the IFO website. Pages 64 and Hits: 2
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. The Public Utility Commission (PUC) recently reported collections of $173.3 million for calendar year (CY) 2016 (remitted in April 2017), which was a moderate decline from production costs. 2 Market value at the wellhead. Does not include natural gas liquids (NGLs). For 2016, NGL production, as reported by DEP, would raise the market value by roughly $88 million prior to the deduction of post‐production costs. 2016 Hits: 2
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf more comprehensive analysis of the proposed higher minimum wage from the Executive Budget in late March or early April. That report will also include an analysis of the combined reporting and personal income tax revenue proposals. Thank you. I would be happy to answer any questions that you may have Hits: 2
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf would likely be significant under this proposal. May 16, 2022 Page 2 School District Cash Balances According to annual financial reports filed with the Pennsylvania Department of Education, the total school district unassigned fund balance for fiscal year ending 2020 was billion. For fiscal year ending 2021, the unassigned fund balance increased to $2.207 billion. Both years include school districts reporting negative unassigned fund balances. If you have any questions regarding this information, please do not hesitate to contact my office Hits: 2
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf to business taxes  15 states reduce corporate net income rate (3 increase)  7 states have enacted mandatory combined reporting  19 reduce personal income tax rate on pass-throughs (9 increase) Intense competition for increasingly mobile businesses  Tax 19-20. assumes no one-time shifts new SUT transfer Summary and Outlook Structural deficit lower than last year’s report  Roughly $500 million lower by final year  Pick up from FY 18-19 revenue gains (sales, corporate net Hits: 2
House Budget Hearing Request.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Dunbar asked about the number of states that currently use incremental budgeting. According to a report issued by The National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) in August of 2015, incremental budgeting is the primary budget of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available for further discussion with your committee once that report has been released. Thank you for the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions Hits: 2
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf This project has been undertaken by the IFO as a Research Brief and will be released as a stand-alone report later this spring. As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing, the office plans to release an analysis of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available for further discussion with your committee once that report is released. Thank you for the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions, please Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2024_Final.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Initial Revenue Estimate Fiscal Year 2024-25 May 20, 2024 Today’s Presentation Report and PowerPoint posted to IFO website at conclusion. Demographics not discussed in presentation. See full report posted on IFO website. Slide 2 Economic and Budget Outlook If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon Hits: 2
Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdf as New York and Connecticut. Pennsylvania’s emission rate was comparable to Virginia, Maryland and North Carolina. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. State 2010 2019 2010 2019 2010 2019 New York 137.0 Hits: 2
Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdf significant shift from coal to natural gas in the state’s electricity generation mix over that period. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. State 2016 2021 2016 Ratio 2021 Ratio Massachusetts 19.00 22 Hits: 2
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2024.pdf click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the remote presentation. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth over the next five fiscal years. The report will include an assessment of the General Fund surplus ($6.6 billion at end of FY 23- 24) and Rainy Hits: 2
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf FY) 2015-16 forecast, and (2) an advance estimate for FY 2016-17. The office also will release an updated report on Pennsylvania’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, originally released on December 9 th , details the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures Hits: 2
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf not individual level) from the computation. For this analysis, the IFO utilized three data sources, which are as follows: • Annual report on referendum exceptions, published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE). This report includes amounts of approved exceptions by type and the total amount of used exceptions. These data show that prior to Hits: 2
Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdf the projected base index is higher than any of the twelve years prior to FY 2022-23. Staff Acknowledgements This report was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding the report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 Base Hits: 2
2001_hr266.pdf 26 Pennsylvania's pension system, the House of Representatives 27 direct the Public Employee Retirement Commission to study and 28 report on the following: 29 (1) Projections of comparative benefits under the 30 current DB plans versus possible DC plans and Public Employee Retirement 5 Commission upon request; and be it further 6 RESOLVED, That the Public Employee Retirement Commission 7 report its findings concerning the provision of a DC option in 8 Pennsylvania's Statewide pension funds to the General Assembly Hits: 2
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf EHB More ACA implementation coming… • Delivery system reforms – Value based purchasing demonstrations – Medical homes – Health homes – ACOs – Team care – Quality reporting 18 State Implementation Priorities 1. Be strategic with the insurance exchange 2. Regulate the commercial health insurance market effectively 3 Hits: 1
Tax_Modernization_Mar_2024.pdf of Revenue (includes non-residents) Tax Modernization & Reform Slide 1 Grown to 2023 based on preliminary data Income groupings use reported PA Taxable Income Excludes retirement income (e.g., Social Security, IRAs and pensions) Excludes transfers (e.g., Unemployment Comp and Hits: 1
SR2017-06.pdf Education. Calculations by the IFO. 1 The assessed value share is weighted by 2015 county real estate tax collections as reported by the Department of Community and Economic Development. 2 Totals are not supplied because they would not be meaningful due Hits: 1
SR2017-05.pdf Counties 12,614,114 6,844,323 54 3,018,274 2,268 3 Based on the number of homesteads reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Education for FY 2015-16 Act 1 Property Tax Reduction Allocations. Philadelphia data adjusted based Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf are an important source of information because they detail the movement of tax filers across states, along with the AGI reported on income tax returns. It is noted that state AGI gains or losses related to migration do not necessarily imply Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf 2026-27 are based on the current services methodology and underlying data described in the IFO’s Five- Year Outlook Report. Projected growth rates are a function of (1) service populations, (2) inflation and (3) various technical factors (e.g., an Hits: 1
Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf of the Executive Budget proposals in late March and will be available for further discussion with your committee once that report has been released. Thank you for the opportunity to submit additional information on these topics. If you have further questions Hits: 1
RTR-May 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through May 2012 May Percent May Percent 2012 2011 2011 2011 May Percent 2012 Change a Hits: 1
RTR-Mar 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through March 2012 March Percent March Percent 2011 2011 2011 2011 March Percent 2012 Change a Hits: 1
RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through June 2012 June Percent June Percent 2012 2011 2011 2011 June Percent 2012 Change a Hits: 1
RTR-Feb 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through February 2012 February Percent February Percent 2011 2011 2011 2011 February Percent 2012 Change a Hits: 1
RTR-Apr 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through April 2012 April Percent April Percent 2012 2011 2011 2011 April Percent 2012 Change a Hits: 1
RTR-2015-04.pdf 277.3 $1,223.6 $516.3 $1,275.7 8.5% 5.2% 5.8% 4.5% Revenue Trends Report April 2015 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) April Percent April Percent 2015 Change 1 2015 Change 1 Hits: 1
RTR-2015-03.pdf Revenue Total $125.3 $946.3 $200.6 $855.8 3.1% 4.7% 2.5% 3.0% Revenue Trends Report March 2015 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) March Percent March Percent 2015 Change 1 2015 Change 1 Hits: 1
RTR-2015-02.pdf 113.8 $821.1 $362.6 $731.3 percent change 7.1% 5.1% 5.8% 2.6% Revenue Trends Report February 2015 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) February Percent February Percent 2015 Change 1 2015 Change 1 Hits: 1
RTR-2015-01.pdf 38.4 $707.3 $287.1 $621.8 percent change -1.6% 4.9% 4.5% 2.2% Revenue Trends Report January 2015 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) January Percent January Percent 2015 Change 1 2015 Change 1 Hits: 1
RTR-2014-09.pdf 159.5 $276.0 $276.0 $235.2 percent change 6.6% 4.6% 4.6% 0.8% Revenue Trends Report September 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) September Percent September Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 Hits: 1
RTR-2014-08.pdf 33.1 $116.5 $320.5 $78.2 percent change 1.9% 3.2% 5.1% 0.3% Revenue Trends Report August 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) August Percent August Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 Hits: 1
RTR-2014-06.pdf 204.0 $30.9 -$90.5 $30.9 percent change 7.9% 0.1% -1.1% 0.1% Revenue Trends Report June 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) June Percent June Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 Hits: 1
RTR-2014-05.pdf 152.0 -$173.1 -$293.7 -$252.1 percent change -7.7% -0.7% -3.1% -0.9% Revenue Trends Report May 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) May Percent May Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 Hits: 1
RTR-2014-04.pdf 142.6 -$21.1 -$137.5 $34.0 percent change -4.2% -0.1% -1.5% 0.1% Revenue Trends Report April 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail (dollar amounts in millions) April Percent April Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change 1 Hits: 1
RTR-2014-03.pdf 0.8 $121.4 $14.2 $338.9 percent change 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% Revenue Trends Report March 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions March Percent March Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change Hits: 1
RTR-2014-02.pdf 4.3 $120.6 -$39.1 $411.6 percent change 0.3% 0.8% -0.6% 1.5% Revenue Trends Report February 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions February Percent February Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change Hits: 1
RTR-2014-01.pdf 9.2 $116.3 -$9.5 $322.1 percent change 0.4% 0.8% -0.1% 1.2% Revenue Trends Report January 2014 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions January Percent January Percent 2014 Change 1 2014 Change Hits: 1
RTR-2013-12.pdf 52.5 $107.2 $35.5 $488.7 percent change -2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 1.8% Revenue Trends Report December 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions December Percent December Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change Hits: 1
RTR-2013-11.pdf 33.9 $159.7 $90.4 $698.6 percent change 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 2.5% Revenue Trends Report November 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions November Percent November Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf outlook for CY 2023 ▪ Solid wage growth but flat non-wage income (profits, divs, capital gains) May 23, 2022 20 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us May 23, 2022 21 CreationDate: 2022-05- Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf new entrants accept lower wages? ▪ How many UC recipients attempt to re-enter when benefits expire? May 26, 2021 21 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us May 26, 2021 22 CreationDate: 2021-05- Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY15-16 and its official revenue estimate for FY16-17. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY14-15 and its official revenue estimate for FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY13-14 and its official revenue estimate for FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund Hits: 1
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf profits of sole proprietors, self-employed, partnerships and S corporations, capital gains and dividends) reflect most other income that is reported on the Pennsylvania personal income tax return. Corporate profits reflect all U.S. corporations because estimates are not published for Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf not support or oppose any policy it analyzes, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717- Hits: 1
Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf over the prior year. Both revenue sources had healthy growth rates over the three and twelve month periods. Revenue Trends Report July 2012 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions July Percent July Percent 2012 Change 1 2012 Change Hits: 1
Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) January 2012 January Percent January Percent 2011 2011 2011 2011 January Percent 2012 Change a 2012 Hits: 1
Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf 29.9 $69.3 -$9.7 $868.7 percent change -1.7% 1.9% -0.2% 3.2% Revenue Trends Report August 2013 General Fund Revenue Detail dollar amounts are in millions Aug. Percent Aug. Percent 2013 Change 1 2013 Change Hits: 1
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf Services. 7 Estimated PTRR funding attributable to recipients age 65 and older is based on Department of Revenue PTRR statistical report data. 6 Includes MA - Long-Term Care, MA - Community HealthChoices, MA - Home and Community-Based Services and MA - Long-Term Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf reflect the imputation of retirement income (pensions and IRA withdrawals) by the IFO to households that do and do not report the receipt of such income during the year. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf reflect the imputation of retirement income (pensions and IRA withdrawals) by the IFO to households that do and do not report the receipt of such income during the year. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS Hits: 1
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf Response-Letter-05-10-2019.pdf. 3 See the Department of Revenue’s 2017 Property Tax/Rent Rebate Program Statistical Report: https://www.revenue.pa.gov/GeneralTaxInformation/News%20and%20Statistics/ReportsStats/PTRR/GenAssembly/ Documents/2019_ptrr_report.pdf. Author: Charlene Raves Creator: Microsoft® Word 2016 Hits: 1
RB_2024_10_Act_1.pdf to New High Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2024 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. County Amount Number Avg. County Amount Number Avg. Monroe $26.2 Hits: 1
RB_2024_09_County_Income_Patterns.pdf BEA personal income for calendar years 2019 and 2022. That income measure is adjusted to include additional income sources as reported by the IRS: capital gains, IRA withdrawals and pension distributions (defined benefit and contribution). The analysis then deducts employer contributions Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Jobs_Revised.pdf The data include all employers that are part of the state unemployment insurance system and reflect jobs and wage data reported in monthly and quarterly administrative filings. These data are used to “benchmark” more timely jobs data published monthly by the Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf A Closer Look at the Market Rate and Cost of Care in Pennsylvania: 2022 Child Care Market Rate Survey Final Report. Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019-23 Number Hits: 1
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf the full population of firms that are part of the state unemployment insurance system and reflect jobs and wage data reported in monthly and quarterly administrative filings. These administrative data are used to “benchmark” more timely jobs data published monthly by Hits: 1
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdf fast food and counter workers are likely understated as some of these workers receive tips that are not included in reported wage data. 10th 50th May 2022 Cashiers 121.2 $9.57 $11.77 Retail Salespersons 129.8 $10.22 $13 Hits: 1
RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf able to receive those meals for at least a part of a month. For the most recent school year, schools report to the Department of Human Services if they were closed for at least 5 consecutive days during a month. If Hits: 1
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. LFPR is (employed + unemployed) / residents age 16+. Adjusted LFPRs exclude age 75+. See IFO Demographics Report for more detail (October 2022). Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Impact of Demographic Trends on the State Labor Force The Hits: 1
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than taxable income reported on the state personal income tax return because it includes Social Security income and employer contributions to pension accounts. However Hits: 1
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf may be used to offset the initial program reduction. 8 See the IFO’s Department of Transportation Performance-Based Budget Report. Figure 2 State Gas Tax Revenue and Consumption Source: DOR and various Governor's Executive Budget documents. Note: Years are Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 2021 Q3 data for the U.S. employer cost index (ECI, wage compensation only) and the U.S. Bureau of Hits: 1
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf income for 2016 due to an unusually high, one-time value for proprietors’ income in that year. For 2016, the reported value was replaced with an interpolation using the 2015 and 2017 data points. The adjusted data point is consistent with Hits: 1
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf  The All Other category includes agriculture, other services, transportation and energy firms, as well as firms that did not report an industry or sector. 1 The original $349 billion of loans under the CARES Act was later expanded by $320 Hits: 1
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf and is the most comprehensive measure of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than taxable income reported on the state personal income tax return because it includes Social Security income and employer contributions to pension accounts. However Hits: 1
RB 2019 RACP.pdf All requests require supporting documentation in order to gauge the progress and validity of costs, as well as Construction Monitoring Reports conducted by state-assigned consultants. Only after all conditions are met will a request be approved for payment, pending fund Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf end of each quarter. This document provides preliminary results for the General Fund prior to the publication of the full report. For the first quarter of FY 2015-16, General Fund revenues were $74 million above estimate. The following bullets briefly Hits: 1
QRE_FY15-16.pdf Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2015. The Independent Fiscal Office will prepare quarterly reports to compare actual collections to these estimates. Table 1 FY 2015-16 General Fund Revenue Estimates ($ millions) 2015 Q3 2015 Hits: 1
Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf influence the long-term economic outlook for Pennsylvania: (1) the composition of job creation; and (2) trends in household formation. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230- Hits: 1
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf Background and Overview Independent Fiscal Office started September 2011.  Provide budget projections: November, May/June and January.  Special reports at request of General Assembly. First: Provide some context on property taxes.  School district reliance on property tax.  Hits: 1
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf 0 -369 -383 -396 -388 CNIT – Tax Rate Reduction 3 -280 -965 -1,144 -1,261 -1,324 CNIT – Combined Reporting 0 366 276 261 273 Total Tax Relief -280 -4,152 -4,435 -4,580 -4,624 Dollar amounts are Hits: 1
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf  Wage income less important. Larger share of income not subject to tax: Social Security, Pensions, IRAs.  Age 65+ reports 21% of income on federal tax returns, much of it nontaxable. Sales and Use Tax.  Elderly buy fewer durable Hits: 1
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf deferrals of expenditures.  Loans or short-term revenue boosts. Post-Recession Budgets 10.Feb.2017 3 November 2016 IFO Report 10.Feb.2017 4 15-16 16-17 17-18 … 21-22 Beginning Balance $257 $2 -- -- Available Revenue 29,652 Hits: 1
Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf see note) 3.4% 4.1% 3.0% 5.1% 5.4% 4.7% 2.9% Non-Motor Sales (as reported) 4.7% 5.2% 3.8% 5.1% 8.8% 7.1% 6.1% Motor Vehicle Sales -0.9% 4 Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf 552 Total 13,390 13,714 14,136 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Annual Financial Reports. 14 June.05.2018 Most Recent Forecast – Jan 2018 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5 Hits: 1
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf best, 50 is worst. Rankings do not average to the total. States without a tax rank equally as 1. The report shows tax systems as of July 1, 2017 (FY 2017-18). These data are shown for informational purposes only, and Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Request_May_4_2021.pdf of Performance through Excellence NAP Tax Credit Awards by Region for FY 2019-20 Source: Reprinted from DCED's annual report on the Neighborhood Assistance Program. County Awards County Awards Lancaster.......................................... $1,520.2 Warren............................................. $154.5 Lebanon............................................ 841.4 Clinton Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf in federal relief fund allocated to PA since March 2020 | American Rescue Plan ESSER funds require LEAs to measure and report outcomes March 9, 2022 4 PDE Metric Highlights (Continued) Child develop. & early learning enrollments below pre-pandemic levels ▪ Pre-K Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf 65 waiting for meals January 25, 2022 4 PDA Metric Highlights (Continued) From FY 16-17 to FY 20-21, Reports of Need (RONs) up 39% in 60+ pop ▪ Investigations increased 70% | substantiated abuse or neglect cases up 91% ▪ Pandemic impacted Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf Act 57-2020 establishes database of local police officer separation records ▪ Key measures to monitor: # LEAs enrolled | # Officer separation records | # Reports filed for hires with negative separation records April 28, 2021 5 Department of Military and Veterans Affairs (DMVA) April 28 Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf attributable solely to the tax credit to reimburse the state ▪ This is a large amount of activity (see Appendix to reports) Net ROI deducts impacts from alternate uses (e.g., spending) ▪ Net ROI = Gross ROI – impact from gov’t spending or Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf Education by May 16, 2022 with the following recommendations: 1. Include citations for PDE data from specific public files or reports 2. Correct the calculations for school district expenditures per student by subtracting charter school tuition payments and charter school average Hits: 1
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf 0% Notes: Figures in 2015 dollars and control for inflation. Per capita amounts are for all consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New Hits: 1
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf are preliminary and compares to a no-pandemic scenario. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Widely Reported Worker Shortage Several factors could be relevant, but extra weekly benefits are key ▪ School is out | vaccinations available to nearly Hits: 1
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf Notes: SAWW is statewide average weekly wage. ECI is employment cost index (2022.4 growth rate is 4.7%). Source: Reported by the Department of Education through 23-24, forecast by the IFO thereafter. Act 1 Index Components March 16, 2023 Hits: 1
Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to Hits: 1
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to Hits: 1
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to Hits: 1
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to Hits: 1
NFIB_Presentation.pdf revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining agreements. ◦ Special studies at request of General Assembly. Dec.13.2017 2 Hits: 1
Newsstand_January_2020.pdf falling 38.3% (-12,143) from 2018. By comparison, domestic out- migration changed from -20,731 to -19,588. IRS Reports Negative Net Domestic Migration from 2017 to 2018 The IRS also recently released state migration data for 2017 to 2018 Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_September.pdf be out of the labor force than men in the first cohort. Additionally, the study found that the first cohort reported health issues (51%) and incarceration (24%) as reasons for not working at higher rates than the second cohort (41% and Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_June.pdf which is considered prime working age. June 2019 National News College Enrollment Declines On May 30, the Wall Street Journal reported that Spring 2019 college enrollment declined by 300,000 (-1.7%) nationwide. Four-year, for-profit college enrollment had the Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf off thereafter. The CBO also revised its projection for real GDP to reflect recent changes in federal tax policy. (Full Report) Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this winter were given to Hits: 1
MTR-2019-09.pdf sales for the rest of the year.  The 3-month PIT withholding growth rate is consistent with recent job reports, which have shown a decel- eration of net job creation for June through August.  Unexpectedly low mortgage rates continue Hits: 1
MTR-2019-08.pdf of the year.  The 3-month PIT withholding growth rate continues to exhibit strength despite the weak July jobs report.  The 3-month realty transfer tax growth rate continues to recover from a sharp decline in March 2019. Unex- Hits: 1
MTR-2019-06.pdf 056 $802 Growth 0.8% 6.4% -68.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | June 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
MTR-2019-05.pdf 977 $803 Growth 0.9% 6.8% -67.5% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | May 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
MTR-2019-04.pdf 394 $769 Growth 0.5% 6.9% -68.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | April 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
MTR-2019-03.pdf 221 $528 Growth -2.1% 5.2% -76.6% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | March 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
MTR-2019-02.pdf 792 $405 Growth -3.6% 5.7% -81.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | February 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
MTR-2019-01.pdf 781 $374 Growth 4.5% 5.7% -31.2% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | January 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
MTR-2018-12.pdf 915 $356 Growth 7.3% 6.7% 41.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | December 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
MTR-2018-11.pdf 103 $262 Growth 8.3% 8.2% 16.7% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | November 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
MTR-2018-10.pdf 924 $104 Growth 10.1% 9.9% 34.3% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | October 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
MTR-2018-04.pdf Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 1
MTR-2018-03.pdf Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 1
MTR-2018-02.pdf Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 1
MTR-2017-12.pdf Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 1
MTR-2017-11.pdf Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 1
MTR-2017-09.pdf Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children). Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 13. The Hits: 1
MRU-2020-3.pdf that are based on the duration of business closures in Pennsylvania. If you would like to be notified when the report is released, please visit www.ifo.state.pa.us to be added to the IFO’s mailing list. FY 2019- Hits: 1
MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdf intentionally left blank. - FY 2023-24 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2023-24 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal Hits: 1
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf intentionally left blank. - FY 2022-23 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2022-23 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal Hits: 1
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates of General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly estimates are based on Hits: 1
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - FY 2023-24 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2023-24 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates for General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. The monthly estimates are based on Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf of Residence of 2.6% for the Philadelphia metro region, revealing a growing divergence between annual growth in rental prices reported by online marketplaces and those reflected in the CPI data. (See table above.) Under normal conditions, rents are less volatile Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdf by the Wall Street Journal forecasts that 2023 U.S. home sales will be the weakest since 2008. A monthly report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that the inventory of U.S. homes for sale was at the Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf 455,000 from Prior Year On March 15, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January state employment report. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest job gains occurred in the education sector (excludes elementary and secondary school employment Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf Pennsylvania Turnpike Traffic Declined 26 Percent in 2020 For 2020, the Pennsylvania Turnpike reports a total of 118.5 million vehicle trips, a decline of 26.0%, or 41.6 million fewer trips than Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf 48,124 (4.5%) renter households will owe $224 million in rent, an average of $4,663 per household. A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association finds that rental property owners lost approximately $9.2 billion in 2020 Q3 revenue from Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf recent WSJ article highlights the impact of COVID-19 on March consumer prices. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI-U dropped 0.4% in March (seasonally adjusted) compared to the prior month. The energy (-5.8% Hits: 1
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf 2.6% 1.7% 3.7% 3.9% 0.9% Note: Based on data from all consumers with a credit report. All Other includes personal loans and other miscellaneous lines of credit. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total consumer debt Hits: 1
Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf Post-Employment Benefits. 1 Pew “50-State Survey of Retiree Health Care Liabilities“, Figure 4. 3 Individual State Pension System Reports/CAFRs for FYE 16. 4 State employees under the general state employee plan (not specific to law enforcement, teachers, etc Hits: 1
Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf A firm that sells a four-year old vehicle with a fair market value of $10,000 would need to report a $10,000 gain if no basis remained. However, if the firm exchanges the used vehicle for a new $40 Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf corporate profits 2023 Q1, May CPI-U, May retail sales ▪ Federal Reserve Board meets June 13-14 ▪ PA: May jobs report More clarity on other factors ▪ Debt ceiling impasse ▪ Possible Supreme Court ruling on student loan forgiveness May 24, 2023 17 Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf corporate profits 2023 Q1, May CPI-U, May retail sales ▪ Federal Reserve Board meets June 13-14 ▪ PA: May jobs report More clarity on other factors ▪ Debt ceiling impasse ▪ Possible Supreme Court ruling on student loan forgiveness May 24, 2023 17 Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_May_2023.pdf estimate for FY 2023-24. The presentation will cover recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Wednesday, May 24 Time: 1:30 PM R Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_2024.pdf estimate for FY 2024-25. The presentation will cover recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Monday, May 20 Time: 1:30 PM R Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdf The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Tuesday, May 26 Time: 10:00 AM Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf growth.  Data suggest material income shifting from 2016 to 2017. Factors That Restrain Revenues 7 02.May.2017 Income Reported on PA Returns -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Capital Gains Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2022.pdf FY 2022-23. The presentation will review and discuss recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Monday, May 23 Time: 1:30 PM R Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdf The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. www.ifo.state.pa.us Creator: Canva Producer Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf Model assumes that every dollar of RGGI revenue invested would leverage $2.52 of private investment. (Source: Pennsylvania RGGI Modeling Report, September 2020.) Model also assumes a 3.57 kwh savings per dollar of revenue spending on energy efficiency. • Potential material Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf point of sale. Since location data are not available for fuel purchases, the IFO utilized a Pennsylvania Department of Transportation report on miles traveled by county to project local SUT based on the statewide estimate at the 6% rate. Notes: In Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdf due to the much higher level of relief provided under the proposal. 1 The IFO adjusted the household income amounts reported in the American Community Survey (ACS) data to account for the underreporting of retirement income. Multiple studies have found that Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf 790 18,520 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. 1 Actuals through FY 2021-22. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO thereafter. Table 1 Estimate Forecast School District Property Tax Forecast Rate Hits: 1
IFO_Public_Briefing_May_2018_19.pdf release updated revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2017-18 and 2018-19. The session is open to the public. The report will be posted to the office website at the start of the briefing. Updated Revenue Estimates www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdf can brief and answer questions from legislators, committees and caucuses on the analysis. The IFO may also release additional analysis, reports and studies regarding proposed and enacted legislation as described in statute. • The IFO will transmit a letter or note to Hits: 1
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf 17,790 $18,520 Note: Millions of dollars. 1 Actuals through FY 2021-22. Estimated at $535 million thereafter. 2 Reported by PDE for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO thereafter. School District Property Tax Growth Rates November 16, 2021 10 Hits: 1
IFO_PASBO_Oct_2024.pdf 1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% -- Notes: SAWW is statewide average weekly wage. ECI is employment cost index. Source: Reported by the Department of Education through 25-26, forecast by IFO thereafter. 3.4% 4.1% 5.3% 3.2% Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Deputy_Director.pdf policy it analyzes, does not make policy recommendations, and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. The IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Position Summary The deputy Hits: 1
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf economic and statistical principles, practices and techniques to design and complete research on fiscal and economic issues; 3) prepares regular reports on the economy and state revenues; and 4) drafts text and prepares data tables and graphs for presentations and published Hits: 1
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf 614 $29,639 $43,838 Avg Annual Growth -0.6% 4.7% 11.8% Note: Includes wage earners only who report that wage compensation comprises at least 90% of taxable income in both years. Filers do not change filing status. First Hits: 1
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf FY 2022-23, the IFO had projected $41.3 billion in General Fund expenditures in its latest five-year outlook report (November 2021). That amount is for illustrative purposes only and will change based on current budget negotiations. However, a few Hits: 1
House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdf FY 2020-21. Estimated at $535 thereafter. 2 Actuals unavailable for FY 2019-20. Estimated by IFO throughout. Source: Actuals reported by PDE. All forecasts by IFO (Feb 2021). Potential School Property Tax Replacement Revenues August 30, 2021 2 22-23 Hits: 1
House_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf Representative Bullock requested data on job loss and recovery by race. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Workforce Indicators reports quarterly employment figures by state and various demographic characteristics. The attached table summarizes the latest data for Pennsylvania employment by Hits: 1
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent? ▪ Submit reviews to Performance-Based Budget Board ▪ Annual legislative hearing | Administrating agency included ▪ Reports available on the IFO website Key Points ▪ Goals and purposes must be established ▪ Include a comparison of similar programs in Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Annual Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Report and presentation will be posted to IFO website at conclusion. ▪ Questions will be addressed at end of presentation. Please use Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Annual Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Report and both presentations will be posted to IFO website at conclusion. ▪ Questions will be addressed at end of each presentation Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf Years 2021-22 to 2026-27 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Welcome to the Annual Five-Year Outlook Report to be posted at IFO website at end of presentation Both presentations run ~45 minutes – questions at end Purpose: provide Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force participation rates reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census Bureau QWI Explorer. Recent Exodus from PA Labor Force Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf 2022-23, which was issued by the Independent Fiscal Office on November 16, 2017. The employer rates used in that report were based on projections provided by PSERS prior to the release of the most recent actuarial valuation. In addition to Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf 320 1,336 434 131 26 -120 Notes: figures in dollar millions. Represents change between January 2016 and November 2016 reports. A negative figure indicates an increase in the projected deficit. 11/15/2016 36 Impact of Recent Policy Changes 11 Hits: 1
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf detail. Wrap Up Executive Budget relies on policy options, funding shifts and one-time measures to close gap  Combined reporting ($240 million) | Minimum wage ($133 million)  State Police Fee ($136 million)  Unclear whether they will be enacted Various Hits: 1
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf spending patterns | less travel/tourism  Acceleration of on-line purchases Key dates to watch  August 21: July jobs report for Pennsylvania  Mid-September: 3 rd PIT estimated payment (first two down ~9% YOY) August 19, 2020 5 IFO Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2023.pdf click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the virtual briefing. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. Long term issues that impact the outlook Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the virtual briefing. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to Hits: 1
DotPlotData.xlsx gov/Teachers%20-%20Administrators/School%20Finances/Finances/AFR%20Data%20Summary/Pages/AFR-Data-Detailed-.aspx D. PDE Website, Public Schools Percent of Low-Income Reports, 2018-2019 Public Schools Percent Low Income. https://www.education.pa.gov/DataAndReporting/LoanCanLowIncome/Pages/PublicSchools.aspx E. Data provided Hits: 1
Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf floor conference center of Harrisburg University, 326 Market Street. The session is open to the public. After the briefing, a report discussing the revenue projections and Pennsylvania’s economic outlook will be available on the IFO’s website at www.ifo Hits: 1
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf private plans, generally unlike other countries). Higher earnings assumption: •Keeps contributions lower in the short run, attractive of course •Keeps reported liabilities lower, also attractive •Riskier assets needed to support higher assumptions •Investment risk is taken by pension plans but borne Hits: 1
BEFC_Response_Letter_12_19_23.pdf 21.90 $24.30 $22.30 $7.40 $15.00 $14.60 1 Includes only districts and charter schools that reported non-zero crossing guard expenses (paid for by the district, charter school or municipality). Crossing Guard Expenses per ADM (for Hits: 1
Announcement_2021.pdf will inflation remain elevated? Does any pent-up demand remain from unspent federal stimulus? The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends Hits: 1
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf year 2021 but received as a refund in CY 2022. Estimates for PA assume state is 4% of US total reported on tax return. SNAP emergency allotments end Feb 2023 ~$100 per person monthly, 1.9m residents ~$1.0 billion refundable Hits: 1
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Dollars in millions. PIT is personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for a $2.19 billion one-time transfer. Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us January 31, 2022 22 CreationDate: 2022-01- Hits: 1
2019-Pub-2.pdf and Technology Conference Center, 14th Floor 326 Market Street, Harrisburg PA The IFO will present the results from its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends Hits: 1
2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf Presenter: Ray Landis, Advocacy Manager AARP Pennsylvania Presentation on retirement insecurity and the challenges facing Baby Boomers as they retire. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230- Hits: 1
Pensions IFO - Pensions IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Pensions Special Reports Issued by the Independent Fiscal Office SERS Stress Test Impact Analysis (2024) PSERS Stress Test Impact Analysis (2024) SERS Stress Hits: 1
Pensions study to be completed by December 31, 2015, on certain aspects of the pension provisions of the act, and to report the findings of such study to the General Assembly and to the Governor. • Prohibited the use of pension obligation bonds Hits: 1
Pensions Public School Employes' Retirement System Scranton City State Employees' Retirement System (Hold Ctrl to select multiple items) Legislative Subject Actuarial Reporting Administrative Expenses Administrative Operations Alternative Retirement Plans Cost of Living Adjustments Disability Retirement Benefits Early Retirement Benefits Early Retirement Windows Hits: 1
Email Subscription IFO - Email Subscription IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Email Subscription The IFO sends emails periodically to alert subscribers to new studies or reports that have been posted to the website. To begin receiving emails, please fill out the following form and click on Hits: 1