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REVENUE ESTIMATE PERFORMANCE This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past ten budget cycles. Tags: estimates, performance, revenues
September 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.16 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $105 million (+2.6%) compared to September 2023. 10/01/2024
iGaming revenues Surge, Others Stagnate This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board to examine trends for Pennsylvania gaming revenues from fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24 and the first two months of FY 2024-25. 09/23/2024
August 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.93 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $33 million (+1.1%) compared to August 2023. 09/03/2024
July 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.99 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $110 million compared to July 2023. 08/01/2024
June 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $45.47 billion in General Fund revenues for FY 2023-24, which was within 0.6% ($273 million) of the IFO official revenue estimate. 07/01/2024
revenues and Spending Surge During Pandemic This research brief looks at the drivers of revenue and spending growth during the pandemic. 06/25/2024
School District Property Tax Forecast The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report projects revenues and the Act 1 index through FY 2025-26 and provides an overview of recent trends in school district funding. 06/19/2024
May 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.36 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $64 million (+2.0%) compared to May 2023. 06/03/2024
Treasury Windfalls Boost revenues - Update Treasury collections have generated a short-term revenue windfall. This research brief updates a prior analysis and provides preliminary Treasury revenue estimates for FY 2024-25. 05/02/2024
April 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $5.69 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $30 million (+0.5%) compared to April 2023. The IFO transmitted a brief revenue update to the chairs of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees. 05/01/2024
March 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $6.28 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase $89 million (+1.4%) compared to March 2023. The IFO transmitted a brief revenue update to the chairs of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.       04/01/2024
February 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.77 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $31.1 million (1.1%) compared to February 2023 (adjusted). 03/01/2024
Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS’ baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-52, the Commonwealth will use $53.0 billion in General Fund revenues (2.7%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of assumptions. 02/28/2024
2024 Budget Hearing Materials The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the Senate Appropriations Committee ahead of its budget hearing. The packet includes data on the state budget, revenue proposals, economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics.        02/20/2024
State and Local Tax revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, CCH AnswerConnect and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the level of per capita state and local taxes across states (unadjusted and adjusted for price differentials) and (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property). 02/14/2024
January 2024 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.91 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $342.4 million (9.6%) compared to January 2023. 02/01/2024
December 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.70 billion in General Fund revenues for December, a decrease of $342.2 million (-8.5%) compared to December 2022. 01/02/2024
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $24.9 billion in General Fund revenues (2.0%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year). 12/01/2023
November 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.06 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $107.9 million (3.7%) compared to November 2022 (adjusted). 12/01/2023
October 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.25 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $121.4 million (3.9%) compared to October 2022. 11/01/2023
2023 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 in November 2023. 10/19/2023
September 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.06 billion in General Fund revenues for September, a decrease of $161.3 million (-3.8%) compared to September 2022. 10/02/2023
Treasury Windfalls Boost revenues Treasury collections are up dramatically from prior years. This research brief examines the cause of the windfalls and explains why they aren’t expected to continue over the long-term. 09/25/2023
August 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.90 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $34.5 million (1.2%) compared to August 2022. 09/01/2023
July 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.88 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $185.3 million compared to July 2022. 08/01/2023
June 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $44.92 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2022-23, a decrease of $3.22 billion (-6.7%) compared to the prior fiscal year. The decline is due to a one-time transfer of $3.84 billion in FY 2021-22 and a new SUT transfer. 07/03/2023
School District Property Tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2027-28, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 06/28/2023
Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends As part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million. 06/12/2023
May 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.29 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $61.1 million (1.9%) compared to May 2022. 06/01/2023
April 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $5.66 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $863.0 million (-13.2%) compared to April 2022. 05/01/2023
March 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $6.19 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $633.3 million (11.4%) compared to March 2022. 04/03/2023
Budget Hearing Materials 2023 The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the Senate Appropriations Committee ahead of its budget hearing. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. 03/16/2023
Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51, the Commonwealth will use $46.5 billion in General Fund revenues (2.3%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions. 03/01/2023
February 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.83 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $393.5 million (16.2%) compared to February 2022. 03/01/2023
State and Local Tax revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 02/21/2023
January 2023 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.57 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $23.7 million (-0.7%) compared to January 2022. Due to a processing delay on the last day of the month, roughly $94 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in January will be shifted to February. 02/01/2023
Analysis of Proposed Changes to State Motor Fuel Taxes The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Chairman Grove for a static and dynamic analysis of proposed changes to state motor fuel taxes. The proposal would reduce those taxes and replace lost revenues with motor vehicle sales and use taxes. 01/26/2023
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions. 12/01/2022
October 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.12 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $310.8 million (11.0%) compared to October 2021. 11/01/2022
2022 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28. 10/05/2022
September 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.22 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $214.8 million (5.4%) compared to September 2021. 10/03/2022
August 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.86 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $290.7 million (11.3%) compared to August 2021. 09/01/2022
School District Property Tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues  and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 08/15/2022
July 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $4.0 million (-0.1%) compared to July 2021. 08/01/2022
June 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $48.13 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2021-22, an increase of $7.74 billion (19.2%) compared to the prior fiscal year. 07/01/2022
Pennsylvania's Gasoline Tax The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285. 06/13/2022
May 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.23 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $716.2 million (-18.1%) compared to May 2021. 06/01/2022
Property Tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. 05/19/2022
April 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $6.52 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $2.56 billion (64.5%) compared to April 2021. 05/02/2022
March 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $5.56 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $714.3 million (14.8%) compared to March 2021. 04/01/2022
Senate Budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to two questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to an update of the IFO’s five-year projections for revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget and an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors. 03/21/2022
February 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.43 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decrease of $249.5 million (-9.3%) compared to February 2021. 03/01/2022
Budget Hearing Materials 2022 The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its budget hearings. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. 02/22/2022
January 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.59 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $931.08 million (35.0%) compared to January 2021. 02/01/2022
STATE AND LOCAL TAX revenues: A 50 STATE COMPARISON This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 01/19/2022
December 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.85 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $162.3 million (4.4%) compared to December 2020.  01/03/2022
November 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $6.62 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $4.28 billion (183.1%) compared to November 2020.  12/01/2021
2021 Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27. 11/15/2021
October 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.81 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $221.7 million (8.6%) compared to October 2020. 11/01/2021
SEPTEMBER 2021 REVENUE UPDATE The Commonwealth collected $4.00 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $741.3 million (22.7%) compared to September 2020. 10/01/2021
August 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.57 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $25.9 million (1.0%) compared to August 2020. 09/01/2021
July 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $1.40 billion (-34.2%) compared to July 2020. July 2020 collections included roughly $1.62 billion in revenue that was shifted from FY 2019-20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July 2021 revenues exceeded the prior year by $216.2 million (8.7%). 08/02/2021
June 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $40.39 billion in General Fund revenues for FY 2020-21, an increase of $8.12 billion (25.1%) from the prior fiscal year. 07/02/2021
May 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.95 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $1.84 billion (87.5%) compared to May 2020. 06/01/2021
April 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.96 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $1.78 billion (81.7%) compared to April 2020. 05/03/2021
School Property Tax, Senior Spending and Tax revenues In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups. 04/23/2021
March 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.84 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $407.9 million (9.2%) compared to March 2020. 04/01/2021
February 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.68 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $516.3 million (23.8%) compared to February 2020. 03/01/2021
January 2021 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.66 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $412.6 million (-13.4%) compared to January 2020.  02/01/2021
December 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.68 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $774.3 million (26.6%) compared to December 2019.  01/04/2021
November 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $18.3 million (-0.8%) compared to November 2019. 12/01/2020
State and Local Tax revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 11/24/2020
October 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.59 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $77.5 million (2.9%) compared to October 2019. 11/02/2020
IFO Public Briefing: October 2020 Revenue and Economic Update The IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 10/23/2020
September 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $3.26 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $76.7 million (2.4%) compared to September 2019. 10/01/2020
Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 09/08/2020
August 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic.  09/01/2020
July 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic.  08/03/2020
COVID-19 Impact on Local revenues In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office examined how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year. 07/16/2020
May 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. 06/01/2020
April 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates. 05/01/2020
March 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million. 04/01/2020
February 2020 The Commonwealth collected $2.17 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $125.9 million compared to February 2019. 03/02/2020
JANUARY 2020 The Commonwealth collected $3.07 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $186.0 million compared to January 2019. 02/03/2020
Testimony on Combined Reporting Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony to the Senate Democratic Policy Committee regarding the potential impact of combined reporting on corporate net income tax revenues. 01/29/2020
Mid-Year Update FY 2019-20 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. The revised estimate is $35.738 billion, which is $220 million higher than the IFO’s official estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2020-21, revenues are projected to be $37.117 billion, an increase of 3.9 percent over the current year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May. 01/28/2020
December 2019 The Commonwealth collected $2.91 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $2.0 million compared to December 2018. 01/02/2020
November 2019 The Commonwealth collected $2.36 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $19.8 million (0.8%) compared to November 2018. 12/02/2019
October 2019 The Commonwealth collected $2.67 billion in General fund revenues for October, an increase of $195.5 million (7.9%) compared to October 2018. 11/01/2019
School District Property Tax Elimination In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates potential replacement revenues for school district property taxes described in House Bill 13. 10/03/2019
September 2019 The Commonwealth collected $3.19 billion in General fund revenues for September, an increase of $143.8 million (4.7%) compared to September 2018. 10/01/2019
Senior Spending and Tax revenues In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes (1) state spending dedicated to seniors, (2) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors and (3) potential changes in senior migration patterns due to proposed tax law changes.   09/27/2019
August 2019 The Commonwealth collected $2.19 billion in General Fund revenues for August, a decrease of $81.3 million (-3.6%) compared to August 2018. 09/03/2019
July 2019 The Commonwealth collected $2.33 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $90.8 million (4.1 percent) compared to July 2018. 08/01/2019
June 2019 The Commonwealth collected $3.08 billion in General Fund revenues for June, a decrease of $5.3 million (-0.2%) compared to June 2018. Fiscal year revenues were $34.86 billion, an increase of $290.9 million (0.8%) from the prior year. 07/01/2019
May 2019 The Commonwealth collected $2.62 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $160.4 million (6.5%) compared to May 2018. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $31.78 billion, an increase of $296.2 million (0.9%) from the prior year. 06/03/2019
APRIL 2019 The Commonwealth collected $4.41 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $659.5 million (17.6%) compared to April 2018. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $29.16 billion, an  increase of $135.9 million (0.5%) from the prior year. 05/01/2019
March 2019 The Commonwealth collected $4.55 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $228.9 million (5.3%) compared to March 2018. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $24.75 billion, a decrease of $523.6 million (-2.1%) from the prior year. 04/01/2019
February 2019 The Commonwealth collected $2.04 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decrease of $1.54 billion (-43.0%) compared to February 2018. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $20.20 billion, a decrease of $0.75 billion (-3.6%) from the prior year. 03/01/2019
PROPERTY TAX ELIMINATION PROJECTION In response to a legislative request, the IFO has updated projections regarding school district property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be subject to replacement under potential legislation that would eliminate school property taxes. 02/27/2019
JANUARY 2019 The Commonwealth collected $2.89 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $252 million (-8.0%) compared to January 2018. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $18.2 billion, an increase of $0.79 billion (4.5%) from the prior year. 02/01/2019
Mid-Year Update FY 2018-19 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. The revised estimate is $34.272 billion, which is $373 million higher than the IFO’s offical estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2019-20, revenues are projected to be $35.272 billion, an increase of 2.9 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May. 01/29/2019
DECEMBER 2018 The Commonwealth collected $2.91 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $89 million (3.1%) compared to December 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $15.3 billion, an increase of $1.04 billion (7.3%) from the prior year. 01/02/2019
November 2018 The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $31 million (1.3%) compared to November 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $12.4 billion, an increase of $950 million (8.3%) from the prior year. 12/03/2018
October 2018 The Commonwealth collected $2.5 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $299 million (13.7%) compared to October 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $10.0 billion, an increase of $0.9 billion (10.1%) from the prior year. 11/01/2018
September 2018 The Commonwealth collected $3.0 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $322 million (11.9%) compared to September 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $7.6 billion, an increase of $0.6 billion (9.0%) from the prior year. 10/01/2018
August 2018 The Commonwealth collected $2.3 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $145 million (6.8%) compared to August 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $4.5 billion, an increase of $0.3 billion (7.1%) from the prior year. 09/04/2018
Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update- August 2018 In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy. 08/24/2018
July 2018 The Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $153 million (7.3%) compared to July 2017. 08/01/2018
June 2018 The Commonwealth collected $3.1 billion in General Fund revenues for June, a decrease of $180 million (-5.5%) compared to June 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $34.6 billion, an increase of $2.9 billion (9.2%) from the prior year. 07/02/2018
MAY 2018 The Commonwealth collected $2.5 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $125 million (-4.9%) compared to May 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $31.5 billion, an increase of $3.1 billion (10.8%) from the prior year. 06/01/2018
APRIL 2018 The Commonwealth collected $3.8 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $325 million (9.5%) compared to April 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $29.0 billion, an increase of $3.2 billion (12.4%) from the prior year. 05/02/2018
Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate.  04/11/2018
MARCH 2018 The Commonwealth collected $4.3 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decrease of $97 million (-2.2%) compared to March 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $25.3 billion, an increase of $2.9 billion (12.9%) from the prior year. 04/02/2018
February 2018 The Commonwealth collected $3.6 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $1.7 billion (91.0%) compared to February 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $20.9 billion, an increase of $3.0 billion (16.6%) from the prior year. 03/01/2018
January 2018 The Commonwealth collected $3.1 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $494.6 million (18.7%) compared to January 2017. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $17.4 billion, an increase of $1.27 billion (7.9%) from the prior year. 02/01/2018
Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/29/2018
December 2017 The Commonwealth collected $2.8 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $198.1 million (7.6%) compared to December 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $14.2 billion, an increase of $775.8 million (5.8%) from the prior year. 01/02/2018
Responsiveness of State Tax revenues to Economic Growth In response to a legislative request, the IFO compared the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 12/26/2017
November 2017 The Commonwealth collected $2.3 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $318.6 million (16.0%) compared to November 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $11.4 billion, an increase of $577.8 million (5.3%) from the prior year. 12/01/2017
School Property Tax and Related Data In response to a legislative request, the IFO collected and analyzed certain data related to school property taxes and potential replacement revenues. Data for Philadelphia in Table 3 has been adjusted based on information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue.  11/13/2017
October 2017 The Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $59.3 million (-2.7%) compared to October 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $9.1 billion, an increase of $259.2 million (2.9%) from the prior year. 11/01/2017
September 2017 The Commonwealth collected $2.7 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $92.4 million (3.5%) compared to September 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $6.9 billion, an increase of $318.6 million (4.8%) from the prior year. 10/02/2017
August 2017 The Commonwealth collected $2.1 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $113.5 million (5.6%) compared to August 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $4.2 billion, an increase of $226.0 million (5.7%) from the prior year. 09/01/2017
July 2017 The Commonwealth collected $2.1 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $113 million (5.7%) compared to July 2016. 08/01/2017
June 2017 The Commonwealth collected $3.3 billion in General Fund revenues for June, an increase of $203.8 million (6.7%) compared to June 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $31.7 billion, an increase of $768.1 million (2.5%) from the prior year. 07/05/2017
May 2017 The Commonwealth collected $2.58 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $637 million (32.8%) compared to May 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $28.41 billion, an increase of $564 million (2.0%) from the prior year.   06/01/2017
April 2017 The Commonwealth collected $3.43 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $227.0 million (-6.2%) compared to April 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $25.82 billion, a decrease of $73.1 million (-0.3%) from the prior year. 05/01/2017
Property Tax Elimination Projection The IFO has released new projections regarding school property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be eliminated, and thus subject to replacement, under legislation that may be introduced in the near future (the relevant parameters are summarized in the document). The projection builds upon a school property tax forecast the IFO released in January of this year. 04/11/2017
March 2017 The Commonwealth collected $4.42 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decrease of $64.5 million (-1.4%) compared to March 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $22.39 billion, an increase of $153.9 million (0.7%) from the prior year. 04/03/2017
February 2017 The Commonwealth collected $1.88 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $20.6 million (1.1%) compared to February 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $17.97 billion, an increase of $218.3 million (1.2%) from the prior year. 03/01/2017
Pennsylvania Gaming Trends This research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16. 02/13/2017
January 2017 The Commonwealth collected $2.64 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $143.6 million (5.7%) compared to January 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $16.10 billion, an increase of $197.8 million (1.2%) from the prior year. 02/01/2017
Mid-Year Update FY2016-17 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than the IFO’s November 2016 estimate and $450 million lower than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017-18, revenues are projected to be $32.637 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. ​Press Release 01/25/2017
December 2016 The Commonwealth collected $2.62 billion in General Fund revenues for December, a decrease of $106.6 million (-3.9%) compared to December 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $13.45 billion, an increase of $54.2 million (0.4%) from the prior year. 01/03/2017
November 2016 The Commonwealth collected $1.99 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $179.2 million (9.9%) compared to November 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $10.84 billion, an increase of $160.9 million (1.5%) from the prior year. 12/01/2016
October 2016 The Commonwealth collected $2.23 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $102.9 million (4.8%) compared to October 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $8.85 billion, a decrease of $18.4 million (-0.2%) from the prior year. 11/01/2016
September 2016 The Commonwealth collected $2.63 billion in General Fund revenues for September, a decrease of $106.5 million (-3.9%) compared to September 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $6.61 billion, a decrease of $121.2 million (-1.8%) from the prior year. 10/03/2016
August 2016 The Commonwealth collected $2.02 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $147.7 million (7.9%) compared to August 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $3.99 billion, a decrease of $14.8 million (-0.4%) from the prior year. 09/01/2016
July 2016 The Commonwealth collected $1.97 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $162.5 million (-7.6%) compared to July 2015. See pages 3 and 4 for more detail on the General Fund. 08/01/2016
June 2016 The Commonwealth collected $3.06 billion in General Fund revenues for June, an increase of $145.2 million (5.0%) compared to June 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $30.90 billion, an increase of $309.1 million (1.0%) from the prior year. 07/01/2016
May 2016 The Commonwealth collected $1.94 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $17.3 million (-0.9%) compared to May 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $27.84 billion, an increase of $163.8 million (0.6%) from the prior year. 06/01/2016
The Impact of Demographics on General Fund revenues and Expenditures Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the 2016 Pennsylvania Data User Conference regarding the impact of demographics on General Fund revenues and expenditures. 05/12/2016
April 2016 The Commonwealth collected $3.66 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $347.9 million (8.7%) compared to April 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $25.90 billion, an increase of $181.1 million (0.7%) from the prior year. 05/01/2016
March 2016 The Commonwealth collected $4.49 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $215.1 million (5.0%) compared to March 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $22.24 billion, an increase of $529.0 million (2.4%) from the prior year. 04/01/2016
February 2016 The Commonwealth collected $1.85 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $112.1 million (6.4%) compared to February 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $17.75 billion, an increase of $313.9 million (1.8%) from the prior year. 03/01/2016
January 2016 The Commonwealth collected $2.50 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $100.8 million (4.2%) compared to January 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $15.9 billion, an increase of $201.8 million (1.3%) from the prior year. 02/01/2016
December 2015 The Commonwealth collected $2.73 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $14.6 million (0.5%) compared to December 2014. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $13.4 billion, an increase of $101.2 million (0.8%) from the prior year.   01/01/2016
November 2015 The Commonwealth collected $1.81 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $75.0 million (4.3%) compared to November 2014. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $10.7 billion, an increase of $86.6 million (0.8%) from the prior year. 12/01/2015
October 2015 The Commonwealth collected $2.13 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $109.9 million (-4.9%) compared to October 2014. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $8.87 billion, an increase of $11.6 million (0.1%) from the prior year. 11/01/2015
September 2015 The Commonwealth collected $2.73 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $156.2 million (6.1%) compared to September 2014. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $6.74 billion, an increase of $121.5 million (1.8%) from the prior year. 10/01/2015
August 2015 The Commonwealth collected $1.87 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $76.4 million (4.3%) compared to August 2014.  Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $4.0 billion, a decrease of -$34.8 million (-0.9%) from the prior year. 09/01/2015
July 2015 The Commonwealth collected $2.14 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $111.1 million (-4.9%) compared to July 2014. 08/01/2015
Impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 06/25/2015
Pennsylvania Gaming Trends This research brief gives a historical overview of gaming trends and revenues in Pennsylvania. This includes the role of gaming in the state economy as well as comparisons to other states.  02/28/2015
Impact Fee Update - February 2015 This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 02/27/2015
Pennsylvania Lottery: Historical Data and Interstate Comparisons Demographic projections suggest that demand for programs and services funded by lottery revenues will grow at a rate that exceeds the expansion of the Pennsylvania economy. Therefore, an important issue for policymakers is whether lottery revenues can maintain recent growth rates so they will be sufficient to meet those demands. This report provides data to assist policymakers in those deliberations. 01/30/2014
Analysis of Michigan Property Tax Reform This report presents the results from an analysis of the Michigan property tax reform known as Proposal A. Enacted in 1994, Proposal A replaced all local property taxes used for school operating purposes with higher sales and use, realty transfer and tobacco taxes. It also created a distinction between homestead and nonhomestead property to facilitate the statewide levy of uniform property taxes on those classes of property. The report makes extensive use of data published by various Michigan executive and legislative agencies to illustrate the impact of property tax reform on tax revenues, millage rates, per pupil funding levels and the property tax base over the past two decades. 09/16/2013
Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 through CY 2024 Estimates toll revenues collected by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission (PTC) through calendar year 2024. The scope of this analysis is limited to forecasting toll revenues; it does not address other revenues remitted to the PTC nor does it address the general fiscal condition of the PTC. 05/28/2013
index.cfm Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Energy Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases Economic Hits: 275
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the Hits: 160
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Hits: 158
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling Hits: 135
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling Hits: 125
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members Hits: 120
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released in February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill Hits: 114
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling & Development Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg Hits: 101
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Hits: 101
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Hits: 98
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary 1, 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides Hits: 97
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary 18, 2018 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its official revenue estimate in accord- ance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report Hits: 94
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Hits: 91
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling & Development Analyst II Robyn Toth Hits: 91
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Hits: 90
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf Kar About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues 20, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides Hits: 88
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues June 21, 2019 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Section 1704-E (b) of The Fiscal Code. This report provides revenue estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2018- Hits: 88
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, we submit this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and the General Global Insight, Inc. Demographic projections are from the Penn State Data Center based on tabulations from the 2010 Census. Historical revenue and expenditure data are from the Commonwealth’s Consolidated Annual Financial Report, the Governor’s Executive Budget and various departmental Hits: 88
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2020-21. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or Hits: 87
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2019-20. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication. Questions or Hits: 87
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) undertook an analysis of state corporate net income tax (CNIT) rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. House Bill 130 of 2017 reduces the Pennsylvania CNIT rate of during the past five years and changes scheduled to occur during the subsequent five years. The second section compares CNIT revenues to state personal income and population. Those two metrics are commonly used to compare the relative burden of taxes across Hits: 85
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues 22, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report Hits: 83
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report accompanies the Independent Fiscal Office’s publication entitled Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2024-25. The report describes the methodologies used to produce the revenue estimates included in that publication Hits: 82
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues 26, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office hereby submits its initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604- B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This report provides Hits: 81
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf May 28, 2013 Special Report 2013-4 Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 through CY 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Hits: 81
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Hits: 78
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Hits: 78
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 78
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 73
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues created by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since Hits: 70
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling Hits: 68
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling Hits: 68
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 22, 2019 This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released in February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill Hits: 66
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analy- sis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This analysis uses various data sources to derive estimates of the Hits: 66
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview ............................................................................................................... 1 Expenditures ......................................................................................................... 2 Executive Budget Financial Statement ............................................................................................... 3 Expenditure Detail ................................................................................................. 4 Revenues – Fiscal Year-To-Date ............................................................................. 5 Adjustments to Official Estimate ............................................................................. 6 Executive Budget vs. IFO ....................................................................................... 7 Revenue Proposals Minimum Wage Rates by State ............................................................................... 8 Increasing Minimum Wage to $15 ........................................................................... 9 Marijuana Taxes .................................................................................................. 10 Lottery and Gaming Trends Hits: 65
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) from fiscal year (FY) 2012-13 through FY 2022-23. For this Hits: 61
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been FY 2021-22 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes Hits: 59
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues created by the Act of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). ___________________________________________________________ - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since Hits: 57
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf Economic & Revenue Update Pennsylvania House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently requested Hits: 57
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been five tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or Hits: 56
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst FISCAL OFFICE June 20, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this official revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (b.1) of the Administrative Code of 1929 Hits: 55
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently requested to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent Hits: 54
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently requested to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent Hits: 54
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst FISCAL OFFICE May 20, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office submits this initial revenue estimate in accordance with Sections 604-B (a)(1) and 605-B (a) of the Administrative Code of 1929. This Hits: 53
RB-2017-5.pdf State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Responsiveness of Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction This analysis responds to a member of the General Assembly to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The analysis compares the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 1 For this analysis, tax Hits: 52
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf you today. For my opening remarks, I would like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent economic indicators provide different perspectives on the state and national national forecasts now place the risk of a mild recession at 15 to 20 percent. FY 2015‐16 General Fund Revenues For the mid‐year revenue update released in January, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) increased its General Fund revenue estimate Hits: 52
QRR_2015Q2.pdf April to June 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue Hits: 51
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues This page intentionally left blank. - Independent Fiscal Office | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through May 2018. That time period covers six complete Hits: 50
MQRE_FY24-25_08_2024.pdf state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Marrisa Litman, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Fiscal Analyst and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2024-25 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense Fund (MLF) and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. The Hits: 47
QRR_2016Q1.pdf January to March 2016 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison Hits: 45
QRR_2015Q4.pdf October to December 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison Hits: 45
QRR_2013Q4.pdf October to December 2013 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual Hits: 45
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Hits: 44
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues This page intentionally left blank. - Independent Fiscal Office | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) since its inception (September 2011) through June 2017. That time period covers five complete Hits: 44
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Hits: 44
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst March 28, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2024-25 Governor’s Executive Budget released in February 2024. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes Hits: 43
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdf state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 1 This document examines the performance of General Fund revenue estimates made by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) from fiscal year (FY) 2012-13 through FY 2023-24. For this Hits: 43
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf 2013 Revenue Conference Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Presentation Overview Economic Outlook o Changes to forecast. o Consumer spending is crucial Date actuals. o Outlook for rest of fiscal year and next fiscal year. Discussion and questions 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 2 Pennsylvania Forecast 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 3 Historical Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U Hits: 43
QRR_2014Q2.pdf April to June 2014 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue Hits: 43
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 bridge program expenditures were reduced by roughly $430 million from the prior year due to a sharp decrease in transportation revenue. The decrease was primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic and continued increases in motor vehicle fuel efficiency. As a Hits: 43
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Kara Hale, Office Manager - This page intentionally left Hits: 42
IFO ppt.pdf January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Background • Public Act 120 of 2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year outlook report. – Release date Hits: 42
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf Independent Fiscal Office February 7, 2014 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 IFO Reports and Analyses 2 Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 Consumer Debt 7 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 8 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 9 Personal Income Tax – Withholding 10 Personal Income Hits: 41
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf Tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues states that have not implemented policy changes related to aircraft (control states). Finally, the analysis derives the static revenue impact from an SUT exemption for aircraft and examines the number of job gains necessary to offset the static revenue loss due Hits: 40
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues left blank. - Staff Acknowledgements The IFO acknowledges the following staff for their work on this report: Kathleen Hall, Revenue Analyst II Ms. Hall joined the IFO in May 2019. Primary responsibilities include forecasting corporate net income tax revenues, business- and economic- Hits: 40
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf to a request from the General Assembly, this document updates the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) official General Fund revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 to reflect the projected impact from COVID-19 and provide a preview of revenue estimates for FY 2020-21. The estimates represent potential outcomes based on the length of mandated business closures under two Hits: 40
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf the Commonwealth?.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Part V–Local Government Pensions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Part VI–Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Tables•Table 1–Personal Income Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates.. . . . . . 9•Table 2–Sales Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9•Table 3–Cash Infusion Projections – Public SchoolEmployees’ Retirement System.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10•Table 4–Cash Infusion Projections – State Employees’Retirement Hits: 40
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf Appropriations Committee prepared by the Independent Fiscal Office February 8, 2013 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt 6 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 7 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 8 Personal Income Tax – Withholding 9 Personal Income Hits: 40
QRR_2015Q3.pdf July to September 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2015-16 Page 1 Introduction Each fiscal year, the IFO publishes a quarterly breakdown of its annual estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publications detailing the annual and quarterly revenue estimates are available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison Hits: 38
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Estimates | Page 1 FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. The monthly and quarterly estimates Hits: 38
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been FY 2023-24 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes Hits: 38
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf Global Insight.  Expenditure Outlook  Special focus on healthcare and pensions.  Guest speaker: Ms. Katharine Witgert (NASHP).  Revenue Outlook  Where will growth come from? The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 2 15.Nov.2012 Some Questions  What implications do broad demographic trends have for revenues and expenditures?  What is the likely path of the Pennsylvania economy over the next six years?  Will future Hits: 38
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf of any provision of this part relating to the limitations under section 401(a)(17) or 415 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 (Public Law 99-514, 26 U.S.C. § 401(a)(17) or 415). * * * "Alternate payee." Any spouse 414(u)(12) and any other payments, provided, however, that the limitation under section 401(a)(17) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 (Public Law 99-514, 26 U.S.C. § 401(a)(17)) taken into account for the purpose Hits: 38
QRR_2015Q1.pdf January to March 2015 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue Hits: 37
QRR_2014Q4.pdf October to December 2014 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2014-15 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections. The revenue Hits: 37
QRR_2013Q3.pdf July to September 2013 Quarterly Revenue Review Fiscal Year 2013-14 Page 1 Introduction The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context and analysis regarding any variances between the estimates and actual Hits: 37
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been time frame for transmittal of those plans and reviews. The IFO also prepares monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinates analyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement Hits: 37
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issues this report as an update to its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report in Novem- ber. However Hits: 36
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) at this informational hearing. The IFO was created by Act 120 of 2010 to provide revenue projections and other budget and economic analysis to the General Assembly and the public. The office currently has 10 staff September 2011, and recently received reappointment for another six-year term. As required by statute, the office provides General Fund revenue projections four times during the fiscal year. Our most recent forecast was released June 15, which projected $32.5 billion Hits: 34
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been FY 2022-23 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes Hits: 33
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf produce a report that summarizes the results, including a calculation of projected employer contributions to pro- jected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of Pennsylvania State Employees’ Retirement System: 2022 Stress Testing and Risk Assessment produced and certified by SERS and its contracted actuary. Revenue projections were performed by the IFO using data from IHS Markit and the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Hits: 31
QRR_2017Q1.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JANUARY TO MARCH Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve‐ nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec‐ tions Hits: 30
MTR-2017-11.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first five months of FY 2017 -18, total General Fund revenues were $203.1 million (1.8 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $58.5 million (0 Hits: 30
MTR-2017-10.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first four months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $9.6 million (-0.1 percent) below the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $27.4 million (-0 Hits: 30
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf produce a report that summarizes the results, including a calculation of projected employer contributions to pro- jected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of Pennsylvania State Employees’ Retirement System: 2023 Stress Testing and Risk Assessment produced and certified by SERS and its contracted actuary. Revenue projections were computed by the IFO using data from S&P Global and the IFO’s Pennsylvania Economic & Budget Outlook Hits: 29
QRR_2017Q3.pdf Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JULY TO SEPTEMBER Fiscal Year 2017-18 Each fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes monthly breakdowns of these estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its revenue estimates with actual revenue collec- tions. The report also provides context for the vari- ances between estimates and actual collections Hits: 29
QRR_2017Q2.pdf Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW APRIL TO JUNE Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions Hits: 29
QRE_FY14-15.pdf Fiscal Year 2014-15 August 14, 2014 Quarterly Revenue Estimates About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Hits: 29
MTR-2017-09.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 Through the first three months of FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $25.3 million (0.4 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Total tax revenues were $9.4 million Hits: 29
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Estimates | Page 1 FY 2021-22 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. The monthly and quarterly estimates Hits: 29
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf 1 State and Local Tax Revenues A 50 State Comparison JANUARY 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 28
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues This report uses the latest data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee type, the report ranks states in descending order based on the ratio of tax revenue to state Hits: 28
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf A Comparison Across States JANUARY 2020 Independent Fiscal Office About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues This report uses the latest data published by the U.S. Census Bureau to compare how states generate revenues. Based on tax or fee type, the report ranks states in descending order based on the ratio of tax revenue to state Hits: 28
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf and Economic Update What Is the Independent Fiscal Office? • Our role in the budget process. • Other products and publications. Tax Revenues and Budget Deficits. • Tax revenues through January 2015. • Revisions to FY 2014-15 General Fund revenues. • Implications for projected budget deficits. Latest Economic Developments. • Gas Hits: 28
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook INITIAL REVENUE ESTIMATE FISCAL YEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May 1, 2018 Today’s presentation to accelerate recently.  FY 17-18: hitting estimate except for JUA transfer.  FY 18-19: moderately strong tax revenue growth. Final estimate to be released June 15.  May and June: large CNIT payments.  Will sales tax maintain Hits: 28
QRR_2016Q4.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW OCTOBER TO DECEMBER Fiscal Year 2016-17 The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collec- tions Hits: 27
QRR_2016Q3.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Page 1 QUARTERLY REVENUE REVIEW JULY TO SEPTEMBER Fiscal Year 2016-17 INTRODUCTION Each fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes a quarterly the General Fund (page 2), Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund (page 4). The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly Hits: 27
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf Mid‐Year Update Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 2015 Revenue Conference Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016. • Forecasts: June 2014 vs. January 2015. • Drop in gas prices: SUT and other impacts. • Real wage growth: boost to consumer confidence? FY 2014‐15 General Fund Revenues. • Performance through January. • Revisions to FY 2014‐15 estimate. • Implications for next year. Advance Look at FY 2015‐16 Revenues Hits: 27
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf reflected in the total determination of the employer annual contribution requirement. PSERS and SERS are funded by three sources of revenue: 1) employer contribu- tions, 2) employee contributions, and 3) returns on investments. Of these three funding sources, returns on fund Divestment efforts have been directed mainly against Iran’s petroleum industry because of the importance of that industry in generating revenue for the country. The state of Florida recently enacted legislation specifically addressing divestment from companies doing business with Iran and Hits: 27
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf Office State and Local Tax Comparison Study October 2012 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues system relative to other states. This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Internal Revenue Service to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across all states. Specifically, the report examines four topics: (1) the Hits: 26
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year. The analysis excludes other important local revenue sources (e.g., realty transfer taxes, occupational taxes and various fees) because the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) lacks relevant data Hits: 26
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12, 2018 FY 17-18: revenues are close to estimate.  Gains (PIT and SUT) offset losses (CNIT and GRT).  ~$200 million short: non-receipt of JUA transfer.  Tax revenue growth: 16-17 (+1.6%) | 17-18 (+3.9%). FY 18-19: tax revenue growth of +4.2%.  Federal Hits: 26
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 25
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf from the Executive and Legislature.  No governing board. Non-partisan vs. bi-partisan.  Primary duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis Demographic Outlook.  Suggests economic and budgetary challenges. Economic Outlook.  Solid labor market, but consumption tepid. Budget Outlook.  Revenue and expenditures. Pensions. Gaming. General Fund Balance Sheet Growth Rates 13-14 14-15 15-16 14-15 15-16 Hits: 25
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf are receipts from non-delinquent property taxes levied for the current fiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes paid by homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. School District Property Tax Revenue and Annual Growth 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 14 Hits: 24
RB_2024_09_Gaming.pdf This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board to examine trends for Pennsylvania gaming revenues from fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24 and the first two months of FY 2024-25. Act to include (1) interactive gaming (iGaming), (2) sports wagering, (3) fantasy contests and (4) video gaming terminals. Pennsylvania gaming tax revenues increased from $1.39 billion in FY 2018-19 to $2.43 billion in FY 2023-24, an increase of Hits: 24
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf This research brief provides an overview of Pennsylvania’s gasoline tax rate, revenue collections, consumption and average tax burden per Pennsylvania licensed driver. Gasoline tax collections comprise roughly 55% of total Motor License Fund (MLF) revenues. 1 Residual MLF revenues are from various licenses and fees (22%), taxes on diesel (22%), alternative fuels and other motor Hits: 24
PICPA_Presentation.pdf Today’s Presentation June 7, 2017 2 Revenue Update for FY 2016-17. Negative (base) revenue growth through May. Revenue shortfall approaches ~$1.0 billion. Economic Update. Lots of jobs created, does not translate to spending remain high (~$2.5 - $3.0 billion). PA state-local tax burden similar to U.S. average. Factors That Affect Revenue Shortfall Taxable consumer spending is weak.  Base sales tax growth is +0.7% Jan. to May 2017.  Much Hits: 24
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Kathleen Hall, Modeling and Development Analyst II Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 24
MTR-2017-05.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $2.58 bil- lion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $637 million (32.8%) com- pared to May 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $28.41 billion, an increase of $564 million (2.0%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non- Hits: 24
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 23
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Tax Comparison Study Page 1 Methodology and Data Sources This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate Hits: 23
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf and the Lottery Fund be itemized separately from all other state funds.  For the same years, actual and budgeted revenues attributable to seniors by major category of taxation.  The impact on the net migration of seniors if school district Human Services attributable to residents age 65 and older, (2) additional Lottery-funded programs administered by the Departments of Aging, Revenue and Transportation and (3) funding for Veterans Homes in the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. The cost estimates are Hits: 23
MTR-2018-06.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For June, General Fund collections were $154 million included in the updated official estimate per Act 44, but was blocked as a result of a federal court ruling. Revenue collections for the year were $178 million (-0.5 percent) short of the IFO’s official revenue estimate. Excluding the Hits: 23
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up well, and actual revenues are up roughly $190 million over Hits: 23
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues within a targeted industry sector. 1 The credit is equal to 50 percent of the increase in gross revenue over the base year and may not exceed $100,000 annually. If a firm’s tax liability is insuffi- cient to utilize Hits: 22
SR2017-03.pdf Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Methodology This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. For this analysis, the term “tax burden” equals Hits: 22
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf are receipts from non-delinquent property taxes levied for the current fiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes paid by homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/RB-2020-COVID- 19%20Local%20Revenue%20Impact.pdf. School District Property Tax Revenue and Annual Growth 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.8 15 Hits: 22
RTR-2014-10.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues in October, an increase of $156 million (7.5%) over October 2013. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $8.9 billion are $661 million (8.1%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding July’s $227 Hits: 22
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf to produce a report that summarizes the results, including the ratio of projected employer contributions to projected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of report entitled Stress Testing Analysis: Pennsylvania Public School Employees’ Retirement System produced and certified by PSERS and its contracted actuary. Revenue projections are from the IFO using data from IHS Markit and the IFO’s mid-year update presented in January Hits: 22
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation tax proposals that have been considered by the General Assembly. 2. Background on school district property tax and potential replacement revenues. 3. Implications for various groups: schools, homeowners, renters, individuals and businesses. 19.May.2017 Today’s Presentation 3 SB 76 Hits: 22
MTR-2018-04.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through April, total General Fund revenues are $173 million, or 0.6 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of April, General Hits: 22
MTR-2017-12.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revised monthly projections for the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 revenue estimate published in June 2017. 1 The new release includes the incremental impact on General Fund revenues of (1) Acts 42, 43, 44 and 55 of 2017 and (2) a recent Supreme Court decision on net operating Hits: 22
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf from the prior year. This research brief (1) examines the reasons for that decline, (2) I Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Revenues $225,752 $223,500 $187,712 $173,259 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 123,151 123,300 101,800 Hits: 22
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf All have a governing board composed of legislators ▪ Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage March 4, 2022 Hits: 22
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 Independent Fiscal Office May 20, 2019 Main Themes PA economy performs as expected in 2018  GDP, wage and jobs growth close to forecast Other factors drive large revenue gains for FY 2018-19  Taxation of internet sales (permanent gain)  Corporate profits (both permanent and temporary)  Hits: 21
MTR-2018-03.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through March, total General Fund revenues are $498 million, or 2.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of March, General Hits: 21
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2023 Welcome to IFO Initial Revenue Estimate Presentation should run 30 minutes ▪ Will be posted to IFO website at end ▪ Use chat feature to submit questions corporate profits and consumers If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible IFO will issue final revenue estimate June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT Hits: 21
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2023 Welcome to IFO Initial Revenue Estimate Presentation should run 30 minutes ▪ Will be posted to IFO website at end ▪ Use chat feature to submit questions corporate profits and consumers If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible IFO will issue final revenue estimate June 20 ▪ Minimal new economic data available ▪ Key: CNIT and PIT second estimated payment June 15 ▪ Impact of CNIT Hits: 21
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Introduction Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Revenues $223,500 $187,712 $173,259 $209,557 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 123,300 101,800 93,070 Hits: 21
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf Boyd | Rockefeller Institute of Government  Presentation on Public Pension Funding Risk Mark Ryan | Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Revenues, Expenditures and Fiscal Outlook 11/15/2016 2 A Preview of the Results January 2016: ~$1.9 to $2.7 Billion Structural Deficit.  Roughly 6% to 7% of General Fund revenues.  Driven by DHS, Pensions and temporary payment delays. Summer 2016: Enactment of Policy Changes.  Adds $1.1 billion Hits: 21
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf All have a governing board composed of legislators ▪ Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 Hits: 21
2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Initial Revenue Estimate Fiscal Year 2024-25 May 20, 2024 Today’s Presentation Presentation runs ~20 minutes • Posted to IFO website at to address them at end If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible Slide 2 Initial Revenue Estimate Economic and Revenue performance as expected, unusual revenue sources provide gains PA Economic Forecast Slide 3 Initial Revenue Estimate Hits: 21
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf Mid-Year Update MID-YEAR Revenue Update Commonwealth of Pennsylvania January 29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts.  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data and tax reform.  Federal tax cut: economic and General Fund impact.  Revenues: FY 17-18 update; preliminary look at FY 18-19. Public presentation later today.  Rachel Carson Building at 2 Hits: 21
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 20
RTR-2014-11.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.7 billion in General Fund revenues in November, an increase of $34 million (2.0%) over November 2013. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $10.6 billion are $695 million (7.0%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding July’s $227 Hits: 20
RTR-2014-05.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.86 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $167 million (-8.2%) compared to the prior year. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $25.79 billion, which include an early transfer of $80 million in liquor store profits, are $174 million (-0 Hits: 20
Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.15 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of 2.2% from the prior year. For the fiscal year-to-date, revenues increased by 3.9% to $20.34 billion. General Fund collections increased by 2.3% and 2.0% over the Hits: 20
Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of 7.6% compared to the prior year. For the fiscal year-to-date, revenues increased by 5.4% to $14.56 billion. General Fund collections increased by 4.8% and 2.9% over the Hits: 20
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf Human Services attributable to residents age 65 and older, (2) additional Lottery-funded programs administered by the Departments of Aging, Revenue and Transportation and (3) funding for Veterans Homes in the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs. The cost estimates are FY 2018-19 to 54.2% in FY 2020-21 (projected). Table 3 provides updates for estimates of General Fund revenues remitted by seniors by major tax type. For this purpose, the IFO did not consider indirect taxes that are levied Hits: 20
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf to produce a report that summarizes the results, including the ratio of projected employer contributions to projected state General Fund revenues under a scenario analysis. In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the Governor and members of Pennsylvania Public School Employees’ Retirement System: PSERS Stress Test- ing Analysis produced and certified by PSERS and its contracted actuary. Revenue projections are from the IFO using data from S&P Global and the IFO’s mid-year update presented in Hits: 20
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 20
MTR-2018-05.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 For the month of May, General Fund collections million (-7.4 percent) below estimate but are roughly meeting estimate for the fiscal year. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded estimate by $50 million. Collections from motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle sales tax were over estimate by $10 Hits: 20
MRU_2022_12.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for December were $429.8 monthly estimate was $109.9 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the shift of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted Hits: 20
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2023-24 Revised Monthly Estimates This report provides revised monthly estimates for General Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. The monthly estimates are based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Hits: 20
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues million, with $11 million set aside for small businesses and $44 million for other firms. The Department of Revenue (DOR) approves total credits awarded each fiscal year and can transfer amounts if any portion is unused by either group. To qualify Hits: 19
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) per capita state and local tax revenues across states and (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property). For tabulations of state and local tax revenues, the U.S. Census Bureau Hits: 19
RTR-2014-07.pdf pa.us For the first month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of $323 million (16.8%) over July 2013. Non-tax collections include $227 million in one-time transfers from special funds. Absent these transfers, General Fund revenue increased by $97 million, or 5.0%. Additional detail can be found in the table below and on the following Hits: 19
Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.44 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of 7.5% compared to collections for December 2011 (details on the next page). For the fiscal year-to-date, revenues increased by 5.0% to $12.23 billion. General Fund collections increased by 6.3% and 2.1% over the Hits: 19
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Non-partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation Lottery, Tobacco Settlement and Oil and Gas Lease funds.  Transfers of available monies from special funds.  Acceleration of revenue or deferrals of expenditures.  Loans or short-term revenue boosts. Post-Recession Budgets 10.Feb.2017 3 November 2016 Hits: 19
MTR-2019-07.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For July, General Fund collections were $2,329.2 million and were $90.8 million (4.1 percent) higher than July 2018. The tax revenue sources with the largest increase from the prior year include corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and Hits: 19
MTR-2018-12.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $80.8 million (2.9%) above estimate for net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher than expected, while personal income tax (PIT) fell below estimate. December CNIT Hits: 19
MTR-2018-11.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $154.1 million (7.1%) above estimate for net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher than expected, while personal income tax (PIT) fell below estimate. November CNIT Hits: 19
MTR-2018-02.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through February, total General Fund revenues are $619 million, or 3.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. February General Fund collections were $158 Hits: 19
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Estimates | Page 1 FY 2020-21 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. The monthly and quarterly estimates Hits: 19
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf Knittel | Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Balance Sheet, Demographic and Economic Outlook Mark Ryan | Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Revenue and Expenditure Detail, Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson| The PEW Charitable Trusts  Evaluation of State Economic Development Tax Incentives November 16, 2017 2 Budget Hits: 19
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provided background materials to the committee regarding the office, the economy and major General Fund revenue sources. I will not review that material in the limited time for opening remarks. Rather, I would like to summarize the IFO’s economic and revenue outlook for the current and next fiscal year. A core function of the IFO is the provision of revenue estimates Hits: 19
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us General Findings and Recommendations | Page 2 - This page intentionally left blank  KSDZ Tax Credits should be subject to annual program and project caps to limit the potential impact on tax revenues. General Findings and Recommendations | Page 8 - This page intentionally left blank. - Section 1: Introduction | Page 9 Section 1: Introduction Act Hits: 18
RTR-2015-01.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.4 billion in General Fund revenues in January, an increase of $37 million (1.6%) over January 2014. The monthly growth rate is affected by the $80 million transfer of liquor store profits, which occurred in March of the prior year. Fiscal year- to-date revenues of $15.7 billion were $1,051 million (7.2%) higher than the prior year. However, adjusting for one-time Hits: 18
RTR-2014-12.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.7 billion in General Fund revenues in December, an increase of $319 million (13.4%) over December 2013. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $13.3 billion are $1 billion (8.3%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding July’s $227 Hits: 18
RTR-2014-06.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.82 billion in General Fund revenues for June, an increase of $134 million (5.0%) compared to the prior year. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $28.61 billion are $40 million (-0.1%) below the prior fiscal year-to-date. Additional information can be Hits: 18
Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.43 billion in General Fund revenues in September, an increase of 4.6% compared to collections for September 2011 (details on the next page). In the first three months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 3.8% to $6.07 billion. For the most recent twelve-month period, General Fund collections increased by Hits: 18
Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.69 billion in General Fund revenues for June, a decline of 3.5% from the prior year. For the fiscal year-to-date, revenues increased by 3.5% to $28.65 billion. General Fund collections increased by 2.5% over the most recent three- Hits: 18
Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.76 billion in General Fund revenues in August, a decrease of $36 million (-2.0%) compared to August 2012. Fiscal year-to-date revenues are $42 million (1.2%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the following Hits: 18
Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $3.59 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of 4.9% from the prior year. For the fiscal year-to-date, revenues increased by 4.1% to $23.93 billion. General Fund collections increased by 2.0% and 2.2% over the Hits: 18
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 18
MTR-2019-01.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $99.1 million (-3.3%) below estimate for while corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) came in below estimate. Other tax and non-tax revenues came in above projections ($14.2 million) in January. The monthly shortfall was attributable to a significant decline in PIT Hits: 18
MTR-2018-07.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 based on: (1) the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the IFO Official Revenue Estimate published on June 18, 2018 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted after Hits: 18
MTR-2016-06.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $3.06 billion in General Fund revenues for June, an increase of $145.2 million (5.0%) compared to June 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $30.90 billion, an increase of $309.1 million (1.0%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 18
MRU_2021_11.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues exceeded the November estimate by $248.2 million (3.9%) and by $1.20 billion (6.8%) for the fiscal Hits: 18
MRU_2021_07.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. For July, General Fund collections were $2.70 billion, or $1.40 billion (-34.2%) below prior year collections. July 2020 collections included roughly $1.62 billion in revenue that was shifted from FY 2019-20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July 2021 revenues exceeded Hits: 18
MRU-2022-11.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for November were $129.0 monthly estimate was $72.9 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the delay of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted Hits: 18
MRU-2022-01.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues surpassed estimate by $440.6 million (14.0%) for January and by $2.20 billion (9.2%) for the fiscal Hits: 18
MRU-2021-12.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues surpassed estimate by $564.4 million (17.2%) for December and by $1.76 billion (8.5%) for the fiscal Hits: 18
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Introduction Table 1: Impact Fee Revenue and Distributions 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Distributions 1 $187,712 $173,259 $209,557 $251,831 Counties, Municipalities and million in fees attributable to 2016 and 2017 that were remitted late. For CY 2018, the PUC reported impact fee revenues of $251.8 million, which is $42.3 million more than the amount collected for the prior year. Table 2 Hits: 18
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf Marriage (1996 – 2070) Penn Wharton Budget Model 11 Census Data Microsimulation “The Tax Cut and Jobs Act” Static Analysis 12 Revenue Impact Revenue Effect 2018-2027 (billions of $) Revenue Effect 2018-2040 (billions of $) Tax Provision JCT PWBM PWBM New tax rate and Hits: 17
RTR-2014-09.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.6 billion in General Fund revenues in September, an increase of $149 million (6.1%) over September 2013. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $6.6 billion were $505 million (8.3%) above the previous fiscal year. Excluding July’s $227 million in Hits: 17
RTR-2014-08.pdf pa.us For the second month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $1.8 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of $32 million (1.8%) over August 2013. For the fiscal year-to-date, the 9.7% growth from special funds. Excluding those transfers, the fiscal year-to-date General Fund growth rate was 3.5%.  Tax revenues increased by $33 million, or 1.9%. Fiscal year-to-date and recent twelve- month growth rates were 3.2% Hits: 17
RTR-2013-11.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.70 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $20 million (1.2%) compared to November 2012. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $9.89 billion are $108 million (1.1%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below Hits: 17
Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.04 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of 12.9% compared to collections for October 2011 (details on the next page). In the first four months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 5.9% to $8.11 billion. General Fund collections increased by 5.5% and 2.0% over the Hits: 17
Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf us For July, the first month of fiscal year 2013-14, the Commonwealth collected $1.92 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of 4.3% over July 2012. General Fund collections increased by 1.8% over the most recent three-month period. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $99 million (5.5%). An increase in personal income tax collections of $117 million (16.9%) offset decreases Hits: 17
Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.8 billion in General Fund revenues in August, a decline of 0.6% compared to collections for August 2011 (details on the next page). In the first two months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 3.2% to $3.64 billion. For the most recent three month period, collections declined by 4.8% Hits: 17
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf 8, 2018 Today’s Presentation Updates on topics covered in recent IFO analyses:  School property tax  Demographics  Revenue estimates  Pensions / Act 5 2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax Update New Forecast, Including Homestead Property Background on Property Tax and Discussion Regarding Possible Replacement Options Challenges for Replacement: Growing vs. Declining Districts School District Revenues; FY 2015-16 Source Amount Percent Property Tax (excludes delinquent) $12,615 44.3% Earned Income $1,509 5.3% Hits: 17
MTR-2019-09.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues exceeded the September estimate by $111.0 million and by $86.2 million for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD Hits: 17
MTR-2019-03.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections met estimate for March (+$2.0 million) and are corporate net income tax (CNIT) and insurance premiums tax offset shortfalls in gross receipts tax, cigarette tax and non-tax revenues. PIT collections were above estimate by $10.0 million for the month. The overage was due to withholding ($5.7 Hits: 17
MTR-2018-1.pdf In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through January, total General Fund revenues are $462 million, or 3 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. Most of the year-to-date overage Hits: 17
MTR-2018-08.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $54.4 million (2.5 percent) above estimate 6 million, -0.1 percent), although withholding collections (-$12.7 million, -0.7 percent) are somewhat below estimate. Non-tax revenues for August were $22.3 million below estimate. Nearly all of the non-tax shortfall was associated with lower than Hits: 17
MTR-2016-04.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $3.66 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $347.9 million (8.7%) compared to April 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $25.90 billion, an increase of $181.1 million (0.7%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 17
MRU_2022_02.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues exceeded estimate by $256.7 million (11.8%) for February and by $2.46 billion (9.4%) for the fiscal Hits: 17
MRU_2021_09.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. General Fund collections of $4.00 billion in September were $551.4 million to-date (FYTD) General Fund collections of $9.28 billion are $714.5 million (8.3%) above estimate. Monthly CNIT revenues reached $866.3 million, $192.9 million (28.6%) more than anticipated, propelled primarily by estimated payments (+$154.2 million Hits: 17
MRU-2022-09.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for September were $422.4 overage can be attributed primarily to strong corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections. September CNIT revenues of $1.06 billion exceeded the estimate by $192.7 million (22.1%). Higher than expected estimated (+$135.5 million Hits: 17
MRU-2022-08.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) recently released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022 -23. General Fund collections exceeded the IFO ’s official August estimate by $103.6 estimate certified by the Governor.) The monthly overage was largely due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. Monthly SUT collections of $1.17 billion were $90.2 million (8.4%) above estimate due to overages in non Hits: 17
MRU-2022-05.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund collections for May surpassed estimate by $459.1 million (16.6% vehicle (+$155.8 million, 17.8%) collections. Motor vehicle collections were $14.6 million (9.2%) above projections. FYTD SUT revenues are $1.29 billion (11.3%) over estimate due predominately to non-motor vehicle collections (+$1.14 billion, 11.6% Hits: 17
MRU-2020-3.pdf of the COVID-19 virus, the corresponding business closures and other mitigation efforts had a significant impact on March 2020 revenue collections. Compared to the monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019, March collections of $4 page.) The IFO estimates that the virus contributed roughly $200 million to the monthly shortfall: (1) $50 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $90 million in processing delays (expected to resolve in the current fiscal year) and Hits: 17
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Kathleen Hall, Modeling & Development Analyst II Robyn Toth Hits: 17
EPLC_April_2024.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Most states have a fiscal office | PA is unique Office Responsibilities Slide 2 Education Policy & Leadership Center • Revenue estimates | Economic & demographic trends • Economic analysis of executive revenue proposals • 5-Year Economic & Budget Outlook • Performance-based budgeting | Tax credit reviews • Pension analysis | Dynamic modeling | Economic impact • Analyze impact Hits: 17
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 16
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 16
RTR-2015-04.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.0 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $588 million (17.2%) compared to April 2014. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $25.7 billion were $1.8 billion (7.5%) higher than the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding one- Hits: 16
RTR-2015-03.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.3 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $56 million (1.3%) compared to March 2014. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $21.7 billion were $1.2 billion (5.9%) higher than the prior year. However, adjusting for one-time Hits: 16
RTR-2014-04.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $3.42 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $173 million (-4.8%) compared to April 2013. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $23.93 billion are nearly even with the prior fiscal year-to-date. However, this includes an early transfer Hits: 16
RTR-2014-03.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.22 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $65 million (1.6%) compared to March 2013. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $20.51 billion are $166 million (0.8%) above the prior fiscal year-to-date. Additional detail can be Hits: 16
RTR-2014-02.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.65 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $19 million (1.2%) compared to February 2013. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $16.29 billion are $101 million (0.6%) above the prior fiscal year-to-date. Additional detail can be Hits: 16
RTR-2014-01.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.36 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $25 million (1.0%) compared to January 2013. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $14.65 billion are $82 million (0.6%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below Hits: 16
RTR-2013-12.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.39 billion in General Fund revenues for December, a decrease of $50 million (-2.1%) compared to December 2012. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $12.29 billion are $57 million (0.5%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below Hits: 16
RTR-2013-10.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.09 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $47 million (2.3%) compared to October 2012. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $8.20 billion are $88 million (1.1%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below Hits: 16
Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.84 billion in General Fund revenues in July, an increase of 7.2% over the amount collected in July 2011. For the most recent three month the prior year. For the most recent twelve month period, collections increased by 1.0%. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source July 2012 FY 12-13 to Date Hits: 16
Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.63 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decline of 4.3% from the prior year. For the fiscal year-to-date, revenues increased by 4.3% to $16.19 billion. General Fund collections increased by 4.3% and 2.0% over the Hits: 16
REU-2020-02.pdf In August 2019, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For February, General Fund revenues exceeded the estimate by $102.9 million (5.0 percent) and by $298.4 million (1.4 percent) for the Hits: 16
REU-2020-01.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections for January fell below estimate by $18.4 million (-0 CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections, which were partially offset by higher than expected sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. CNIT collections of $92.0 million for the month came in below projections by $32.1 million (-25.8 percent Hits: 16
REU-2019-10.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of October exceeded estimate by $143.7 million (5.7 percent) and by $229.8 million (2 Hits: 16
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf in September 2011.  Similar to the Congressional Budget Office.  Office does not make policy recommendations. Primary duties:  Revenue projections: May 1 and June 15.  Analyze fiscal impact of state employee wage contracts.  Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 7/14/2017 2 Today’s Presentation PA’s long- Hits: 16
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf Operations September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly 2008‐2009 Financial Crisis Recent Budgets Have Been Balanced Using Various Short‐Term Measures Underlying Fundamentals Suggest Significant Disparity Between Revenues and Expenditures 8.Jun.2016 3  The widespread 2008‐2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets. • Federal Hits: 16
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf Crucial Assumptions | Recession Risk  Demographics: a contracting workforce  Economics: modest 2018 gains from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax Hits: 16
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate FYTD Revenues Through May 2018 Amount Change Growth General Fund $31,483 $3,078 10.8% Corporate Net Income 2,318 188 Hits: 16
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf economy performed as expected in 2018  GDP, wage and jobs growth was close to forecast Other factors driving large revenue gains for FY 18-19  Taxation of internet sales (permanent gain)  Corporate profits (both permanent and temporary)  of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Corporate profits are domestic, non-financial profits only. Wages vs Tax Revenue Growth June 11, 2019 4 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7 Hits: 16
MTR-2019-06.pdf Last July, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For June, General Fund collections exceeded estimate by $50.9 million (1 corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) annual payments and licenses and fees revenue associated with gaming expansion. The surplus in PIT annual payments was partially offset by a significant shortfall in PIT estimated Hits: 16
MTR-2019-02.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $59.3 million (3.0%) above estimate for million), due to lower than anticipated collections in quarterly payments (-$186.8 million) and withholding (-$26.9 million). Other tax revenues came in over estimate ($2.9 million) in February. Shortfalls in insurance premiums and realty transfer taxes partially offset the Hits: 16
MTR-2016-08.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $2.02 billion in General Fund revenues for Au- gust, an increase of $147.7 million (7.9%) compared to August 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $3.99 bil- lion, a decrease of $14.8 million (-0.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Hits: 16
MTR-2016-03.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $4.49 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $215.1 million (5.0%) compared to March 2015. Fis- cal year-to-date revenues were $22.24 billion, an increase of $529.0 million (2.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 16
MTR-2016-02.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $1.85 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $112.1 mil- lion (6.4%) compared to February 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $17.75 billion, an increase of $313.9 million (1.8%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 16
MTR-2015-09.pdf Neɑ IRS SɎaɎe MigɌaɎiɉɈ DaɎa ReɆeaɍed The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recently released new data that capture interstate migration patterns for calendar years 2012 and 2013. The data are 4,663 -170 Other States -7,406 -262 Florida -9,092 -645 Total -21,578 -935 Source: U.S. Internal Revenue Service. Excludes foreign migration. Delaware -1,961 7 South Carolina -2,481 -119 North Carolina -2,913 -111 Number from Hits: 16
MRU_2023_02.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for February were $407.0 SUT) collections of $1.00 billion were $79.9 million (8.7%) over estimate due mostly to non-motor vehicle revenues (+$65.8 million, 7.8%). Motor vehicle collections were also higher than projected (+$14.1 million, 18.8%). FYTD SUT Hits: 16
MRU_2022_04.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund collections exceeded the April estimate by $2.00 billion (44.4% quarterly (+$147.6 million, 34.4%) and withholding (+$53.2 million, 5.8%) payments contributing to the overage. FYTD PIT revenues surpass the forecast by $2.26 billion (17.2%) due to final (+$1.42 billion, 81.4%), withholding (+$458.6 Hits: 16
MRU_2021_10.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund revenues exceeded the October estimate by $233.6 million (9.1%) and by $948.1 million (8.5%) for the fiscal Hits: 16
MRU-2023-01.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for January were $32.8 certified by the Governor.) Due to a processing delay on the last day of the month, roughly $94 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in January will be shifted to February ($69 million is withholding). January sales and Hits: 16
MRU-2022-10.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for October were $276.8 The monthly overage is primarily due to stronger than anticipated sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues. October SUT collections of $1.27 billion were $139.9 million (12.4%) over estimate due entirely to non-motor Hits: 16
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Tax Credit project: “The Millworks” located in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Iowa’s Historic Preservation and Cultural and Entertainment District Tax Credit: Tax Credits Evaluation Study,” Iowa Department of Revenue, Tax Research and Program Analysis Section (December 2014), p. 10. 7 Acts 1974, No. 273, Section 1. Amended by Acts 1975, No Hits: 15
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Joe Shockey, Fiscal Analyst II Michaela Miller, Fiscal Analyst II Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst spending), as the estimates assume that states must reduce spending or raise taxes to fund tax credits. The Net Tax Revenue Impact reflects the net increase in tax collections resulting from the tax credit as compared to the alternative use of Hits: 15
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf General Fund Snapshot Revenue Source FY15-16 Growth FY16-17 Growth General Fund - Total $30,999 1.3% $31,661 2.1% Corporate Net Quarterly 1,821 10.9% 1,874 2.9% Annual 1,344 -3.6% 1,470 9.4% Other Tax Revenue 5,095 0.3% 4,960 -2.6% Non-Tax Revenue 658 -40.2% 578 -12.3% Note: dollar amounts Hits: 15
Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.68 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of 2.3% compared to collections for November 2011 (details on the next page). In the first five months of the fiscal year, revenues increased by 4.4% to $9.79 billion. General Fund collections increased by 5.1% and 1.4% over the Hits: 15
REU-2019-12.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund collections were $58.5 million (-2.0 percent) below estimate for The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues. CNIT collections were $526.5 million for the month, which was 3.6 percent below estimate. The monthly result was Hits: 15
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf tax for sales that occur in Philadelphia ($2.00 per pack). The figure below displays the contraction in cigarette tax revenues for these levies since state fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. These taxes are levied on a per pack basis (as reflect cigarette consumption trends at the national, state and city level. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, state cigarette tax revenues declined at an average rate of roughly 3.1% per annum. In FY 2020-21, this trend reversed briefly when Hits: 15
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf improved since spring? o Short Answer: No. o Economy has absorbed some hits. o A few more to come. Tax Revenues. o Best real-time indicator of PA economic conditions. Upcoming Studies. o HB 76 and SB 76. o Five-Year Reserve Earnings billions of dollars Losses from sales of securities $111 billion $34 billion 24 . Sept . 2013 9 How Are Revenues? Revenues best indicator of PA economy. Often a disconnect between economic forecast and real time revenue data. Look at data Hits: 15
MTR-2019-08.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. Compared to those estimates, General Fund collections of $2,192.9 million in 7 million (-4.2 percent) under estimate due to an unexpected, one-time transfer that occurred in July. Monthly PIT revenues were $20.8 million (2.6 percent) higher than anticipated. The differential was in part due to withholding payments, which Hits: 15
MTR-2019-05.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 For May, General Fund collections exceeded estimate ($17.4 million) and are the year exceed the estimate ($323.6 million) as final and estimated payments are higher than anticipated. May non-tax revenues surpassed the estimate by $2.4 million. The result was due to higher than predicted escheats and treasury collections which Hits: 15
MTR-2019-04.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections exceeded estimate for April ($508.6 million) and are 138.8 million) payments. Overall FYTD CNIT collections are growing at a rate of 22.4 percent. April non-tax revenues were $58.0 million above estimate. Licenses and fees ($32.3 million) and escheats collections ($34.9 million) both exceeded Hits: 15
MTR-2018-09.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $137.8 million (4.7 percent) above estimate fiscal year. The IFO does not anticipate that the first quarter growth in CNIT (31.6%) and SUT (8.9%) revenues can be sustained for the remainder of the fiscal year. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Hits: 15
MTR-2016-05.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $1.94 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $17.3 million (-0.9%) compared to May 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $27.84 billion, an increase of $163.8 million (0.6%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 15
MTR-2015-08.pdf 2 Annual average growth since 2006. 3 Thousands of payroll jobs. August 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Aug-15 $1,868 $1,848 $20 Growth 4.3% 4.1% 23.7% FYTD $4,003 $3,945 $57 Growth -0.9% 4.6% -78.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. Tax Revenue The Commonwealth collected $1.87 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $76.4 million (4.3% Hits: 15
MRU_2023_08.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. General Fund collections for August were $2.90 billion, $8.7 million (0 income tax (PIT). (The IFO monthly estimate was $35.8 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) August revenues increased $34.5 million (1.2%) over the prior year (see next page). Adjusting for shifting due dates, the tax Hits: 15
MRU_2023_07.pdf Later this month, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Therefore, this update does not include comparisons to July estimates, and only compares to revenues from the same month in the prior year. July revenues increased $185.3 million (6.9%) over the prior year Hits: 15
MRU_2023_06.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for June were $285.3 June SUT collections of $1.21 billion were $44.8 million (3.8%) above estimate due to non-motor vehicle revenues, which were $36.0 million (3.4%) above estimate. Motor vehicle collections for the month were $122.8 million, $8 Hits: 15
MRU_2021_08.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. For August, General Fund collections were $2.57 billion, or $71.5 million date (FYTD) General Fund collections are $5.27 billion, which are $163.1 million (3.2%) above estimate. August CNIT revenues of $106.0 million were $36.8 million (53.2%) higher than anticipated and driven by final payments (+$24.4 Hits: 15
MRU_2021_05.pdf General Fund revenue collections were $3.95 billion in May, $1.33 billion (50.8%) higher than the monthly projections associated with the collections total $14.85 billion and are $422.0 million (2.9%) above the forecast. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) revenues reached $417.5 million in May as a result of higher than anticipated final (+$141.8 million, 61.6%) and Hits: 15
MRU-2023-03.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for March were $494.1 SUT) collections of $1.07 billion were $93.0 million (9.5%) over estimate due mostly to non-motor vehicle revenues (+$79.2 million, 9.2%). Motor vehicle collections were also higher than projected (+$13.8 million, 11.9%). FYTD SUT Hits: 15
MRU-2021-06.pdf June General Fund revenue collections were $3.77 billion, $350.7 million (10.3%) more than the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal January 2021. The monthly overage was mainly due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. Fiscal year 2020-21 General Fund collections were $40.39 billion, $1.95 billion (5.1%) higher than forecasted. June Hits: 15
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf Chairman Grove: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide ten-year static and dynamic revenue estimates for proposed changes to the imposition, deposit and expenditure of motor vehicle related tax revenues. Specifically, you request that we estimate: • Deposit of motor vehicle sales and use tax (MVSUT) revenue into the Motor License Hits: 15
Releases Board to examine the recent increase in Act 1 property tax relief due to gaming expansion. Full Report September 2024 Revenue Update October 01, 2024 | Revenue & Economic Update The Commonwealth collected $4.16 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $105 million (+2 Hits: 15
RTR-2015-02.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.74 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $94 million (5.7%) compared to February 2014. Fiscal year-to-date revenues of $17.4 billion were $1,145 million (7.0%) higher than the prior year. However, after adjusting for one- Hits: 14
Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.03 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of 7.1% from the prior year. For the fiscal year-to-date, revenues increased by 4.3% to $25.96 billion. General Fund collections increased by 4.2% and 2.2% over the Hits: 14
REU-2019-11.pdf On August 8th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. General Fund revenues for the month of November were above estimate by $42.1 million (1.8 percent) and by $272.0 million Hits: 14
RB_2024_06_Revenues_Spending.pdf With the end of the fiscal year, pandemic General Fund revenue and spending growth can be assessed based on a comparison to the most recent pre-pandemic year (FY 2018-19 Francisco found that consumers have exhausted any savings built up during the pandemic. 1 Most analysts now expect economic and revenue growth rates to revert to historical averages. Spending growth will be determined by discretionary spending decisions (e.g., education) and Hits: 14
QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf IFO General Fund Revenue Estimate Comparison to Actual Revenues October 1, 2015 The Independent Fiscal Office recently published quarterly estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2015-16 General Fund, Motor Hits: 14
NFIB_Presentation.pdf Established September 2011; 10 staff, but expanding. ◦ Like the Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports NO policy recommendations. Dec.13.2017 3 IFO Role in the Budget Process May 1 (prelim) and June 15: issue revenue estimate. ◦ Provides General Assembly a starting point for deliberations. ◦ Governor still provides “official certification” of estimate. November 15: Five-Year Hits: 14
MTR-2018-10.pdf On July 30th, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. 1 General Fund collections were $19.5 million (-0.8 percent) below estimate historically low escheat payments, which are partially offset by an overage in Treasury collections. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Oct-18 $2,474 $2,445 $30 Growth 13.7% 13.2% 88.7% FYTD $10,028 Hits: 14
MTR-2017-06.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $3.3 billion in General Fund revenues for June, an in- crease of $203.8 million (6.7%) compared to June 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $31.7 billion, an increase of $768.1 million (2.5%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 14
MTR-2017-04.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $3.43 bil- lion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $227.0 million (-6.2%) com- pared to April 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $25.82 billion, a decrease of $73.1 million (-0.3%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 14
MTR-2017-03.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $4.42 bil- lion in General Fund revenues for March, a decrease of $64.5 million (-1.4%) com- pared to March 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $22.39 billion, an increase of $153.9 million (0.7%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 14
MTR-2017-02.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $1.88 bil- lion in General Fund revenues for Febru- ary, an increase of $20.6 million (1.1%) compared to February 2016. Fiscal year- to-date revenues were $17.97 billion, an increase of $218.3 million (1.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 14
MTR-2017-01.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $2.64 bil- lion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $143.6 million (5.7%) com- pared to January 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $16.10 billion, an increase of $197.8 million (1.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 14
MTR-2016-12.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $2.62 bil- lion in General Fund revenues for Decem- ber, a decrease of $106.6 million (-3.9%) compared to December 2015. Fiscal year- to-date revenues were $13.45 billion, an increase of $54.2 million (0.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 14
MTR-2016-11.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $1.99 bil- lion in General Fund revenues for Novem- ber, an increase of $179.2 million (9.9%) compared to November 2015. Fiscal year- to-date revenues were $10.84 billion, an increase of $160.9 million (1.5%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 14
MTR-2016-10.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $2.23 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $102.9 million (4.8%) compared to October 2015. Fis- cal year-to-date revenues were $8.85 billion, a decrease of $18.4 million (-0.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 14
MTR-2015-10.pdf Security recipients are to receive a 2.0% COLA in 2017. October 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Oct-15 $2,132 $2,109 $23 Growth -4.9% -4.6% -27.8% FYTD $8,868 $8,764 $103 Growth 0.1% 2.6% -66.8% Dollar amounts are in millions. Tax Revenue The Commonwealth collected $2.13 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $109.9 million (-4.9% Hits: 14
MRU_2024_07.pdf Later this month, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. Therefore, this update does not include comparisons to July estimates and only compares to revenues from the same month in the prior year. July revenues increased $110 million (+3.8%) over the prior year (see Hits: 14
MRU_2023_11.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023 -24. General Fund collections for November were $3.06 billion, $78.9 million (+2 collections were $107.9 million (+3.7%) above collections compared to November 2022 (after adjusting for roughly $200 million in revenue that should have been receipted in November 2022 but was delayed to December). The adjusted tax revenue growth rate was Hits: 14
MRU_2023_05.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for May were -$84.9 11.8%) and annual (+$166.3 million, 8.0%) payments exceed the shortfall in withholding (-$107.3 million, -0.9%) revenues. May sales and use tax (SUT) collections of $1.12 billion were $47.0 million (-4.0%) under estimate due Hits: 14
MRU_2022_03.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2021- 22. General Fund collections exceeded the March estimate (+$579.2 million, 11.6%) and 4 million, 4.7%), estimated (+$232.9 million, 16.6%) and final (+$87.6 million, 18.7%) payments. March CNIT revenues of $631.7 million surpassed the forecast by $119.8 million (23.4%). The result was due to an overage Hits: 14
MRU-2023-04.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 at the beginning of September. General Fund collections for April were $434.4 for the month were $1.24 billion, $102.3 million (9.0%) over estimate due entirely to non-motor vehicle revenues (+$128.9 million, 12.9%). April motor vehicle collections came in at $110.6 million, $26.6 million (-19.4% Hits: 14
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary Estimates | Page 1 FY 2018-19 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly esti- mates for Motor License and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. The monthly and quarterly estimates Hits: 14
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdf data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2023 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2023, the PUC reported impact fee revenues of $179.6 million, $99.2 million less than the prior year. Table 2 (next page) details the well count Hits: 14
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2019 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2019, the PUC reported impact fee revenues were $200.4 million, which is $51.4 million less than the amount collected for the prior year. Table 2 Hits: 14
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf General Fund Revenue Estimate FY 2013-14 Mid-Year Update Independent Fiscal Office January 23, 2014 At the beginning of the fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) forecasted FY 2013-14 General Fund revenues of $29.154 billion. For comparison, the revenue estimate certified by the Governor and published by the Department of Revenue Hits: 14
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf Overview  Introduction to Independent Fiscal Office (IFO).  Who we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP IFO Concept  IFO combines two federal agencies.  Congressional Budget Office.  Annual budget projections.  Special studies on revenues or expenditures.  Joint Committee on Taxation.  “Scoring” of changes to tax policy.  Analysis of various tax code Hits: 14
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf Economics jobs and inflation ▪ Will workers return? | impact of general price and asset inflation ▪ Does a wage-price spiral emerge? Revenues permanent real and inflation gains from COVID Expenditures significant increase in healthcare costs ▪ Unclear how wage pressures and inflation will 2021 3 Four Key Assumptions Inflation decelerates, but does not reverse ▪ Nominal sales and use tax, personal and corporate income revenues Some pandemic-induced changes partly reverse ▪ Very high profit margins ▪ Consumer spending: more goods, fewer services, less gasoline Others fully Hits: 14
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf a governing board composed of legislators  Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues:  Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?)  Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews  Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February Hits: 14
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues  The analysis finds that the net return on investment (ROI) is 13.1 cents of state tax revenue for each tax credit dollar. That ROI is consistent with other government and academic studies.  On net, the tax credit retains Hits: 13
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf IFO Revenue Estimate – General Fund Snapshot June 15, 2015 This snapshot summarizes the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY14-15 and its official revenue estimate for FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website Hits: 13
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf IFO Revenue Estimate – General Fund Snapshot June 16, 2014 This snapshot summarizes the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised revenue estimate for FY13-14 and its official revenue estimate for FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website Hits: 13
QRE_FY15-16.pdf Fiscal Year 2015-16 September 17, 2015 Quarterly Revenue Estimates Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 FY 2015-16 Quarterly Revenue Estimates This document provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates Hits: 13
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf Budget Outlook FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20 Provide Five-Year Projections For: • Pennsylvania Demographics • Pennsylvania Economics • General Fund Revenues • General Fund Expenditures Why Do We Do It? • Establish a neutral baseline to assess fiscal situation. • Identify long-term budget a small increase for younger workers. 3.Dec.2014 A Continuation of Broad Trends 15 Fiscal Outlook Year-to-Date Revenues Long-Term Fiscal Imbalance Tax Base Erosion 3.Dec.2014 16 3.Dec.2014 17 Fiscal Year-to-Date Revenues Hits: 13
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf Mid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2018-19 Preliminary Forecast FY 2019-20 January 29, 2019 Forecast: June 2018 vs Jan labor market  Solid income growth  Stable interest rates  Low/stable energy prices January 29, 2019 5 FYTD Revenues Through January January 29, 2019 6 Actual Revenues IFO Estimate Admin Estimate Amount Growth Amount $ Diff Amount $ Diff General Fund Hits: 13
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf Philadelphia Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 4, 2018 June.04.2018 2 FY 17-18 Revenues Close to Estimate FYTD Revenues Through May 2018 Amount Change Growth General Fund $31,483 $3,078 10.8% Corporate Net Income 2,318 188 Hits: 13
MTR-2016-01.pdf General Fund Snapshot The Commonwealth collected $2.50 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $100.8 million (4.2%) compared to January 2015. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $15.9 billion, an increase of $201.8 million (1.3%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Hits: 13
MTR-2015-11.pdf Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1,808 $1,796 $12 Growth 4.3% 3.8% 374.9% FYTD $10,676 $10,561 $115 Hits: 13
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf all other economic indicators strong  Down 441k jobs in February from prior year  Positives: housing market, sales tax revenues show strong growth Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different now 20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 Beginning Balance $30 -$2,734 -- -- -- -- -- Current Year Revenues 32,276 38,437 $36,675 $37,851 $39,352 $40,828 $42,321 Less Refunds -1,150 -1,300 Hits: 13
MRU_2024_3.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. March General Fund collections were $6.28 billion, $298 million (+5.0%) above for March were $89 million (+1.4%) above collections for March 2023. (See next page.) Fiscal year- to-date (FYTD) revenues of $32.80 billion are $284 million (0.9%) higher than anticipated. Revenue highlights for the major tax types include Hits: 13
MRU_2024_2.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. February General Fund collections were $2.77 billion, $110.0 million (+4.1% February were $31.1 million (+1.1%) above collections for February 2023 after adjusting for a processing delay that impacted revenues last year. (See next page.) Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) revenues of $26.52 billion are $14.2 million (-0 Hits: 13
MRU_2024_09.pdf In June 2024, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. For September 2024, General Fund collections were $4.16 billion, +$38 million (+0 September collections were $105 million (+2.6%) higher and FYTD collections were $248 million (+2.5%) higher. (See next page.) Revenue highlights for the major tax types include: Personal income tax (PIT) collections of $1.61 billion for September were $74 Hits: 13
MRU_2024_08.pdf In June 2024, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. For August 2024, General Fund collections were $2.93 billion, $141 million (+5 August collections were $33 million (+1.1%) higher and FYTD collections were $143 million (+2.5%) higher. (See next page.) Revenue highlights for the major tax types include: Sales and use tax (SUT) collections were $1.21 billion for the month Hits: 13
MRU_2023_10.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. General Fund collections for October were $3.25 billion, $116.7 million (+3 shortfalls in escheats. (The IFO October estimate was $3.2 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor.) October revenues increased $121.4 million (+3.9%) over the prior year (see next page) and the tax revenue growth rate was Hits: 13
MRU_2023_09.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. General Fund collections for September were $4.06 billion, $163.6 million (-3 and inheritance tax. (The IFO monthly estimate was $23.4 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor.) September revenues decreased $161.3 million (-3.8%) over the prior year (see next page) and the tax revenue growth rate was Hits: 13
MRU-2022-07.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. For July, General Fund collections were $2.70 billion, or $4.0 million the prior year. Growth (adjusted) in PIT and SUT was offset by a reduction in corporate net income tax (CNIT) revenues. Personal income tax (PIT) revenues for the month were $972.9 million, an increase of $13.8 million (1.4% Hits: 13
MRU-2022-06.pdf General Fund revenue collections of $4.24 billion in June were $718.5 million (20.4%) higher than monthly projections released by the 5%), but withholding (+589.8 million, 5.2%) and quarterly (+$508.0 million, 22.6%) payments also outperformed expectations. CNIT revenues reached $970.0 million in June which exceeded the estimate by $335.9 million (53.0%). The monthly performance was Hits: 13
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2022 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2022, the PUC reported impact fee revenues of $278.9 million, $44.4 million more than the prior year. Table 2 details the well count, fee schedule Hits: 13
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2020 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2020, the PUC reported impact fee revenues were $146.3 million, which is $54.1 million less than the amount collected for the prior year. Table 2 Hits: 13
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf age 75+ and long-term care Economics ▪ Not a forecast, a controlled simulation | PA economy reverts to long-term growth Revenues ▪ Corporate profits still at very high levels, but reversion expected ▪ Treasury collections surge to $680 million in FY 2023-24 prior year. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA and RedFin. General Fund Revenues November 15, 2023 7 Fiscal Year 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 Personal Income Hits: 13
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf participation rates must increase rapidly to facilitate jobs creation Economics ▪ Simulation assumes no recession, but no growth for CY 2023 Revenues ▪ Inflation boosts stock and home values | capital gains surge in 2021 (+85%) ▪ Business profits far above historical levels ▪ CNIT rate cut reduces revenues by $1.4 billion in FY 27-28 Expenditures ▪ FY 22-23 funding increases assumed permanent ▪ Federal COVID relief/enhanced Hits: 13
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months 6% 1.7% n.a. 5.3% 5.6% 5.4% n.a. Snapshot: Pennsylvania Casinos Lead Region in Gross Revenue Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania In 2004, the Pennsylvania General Assembly approved the Pennsylvania Race Horse Development and Gaming Hits: 13
2002_drop_report.pdf Municipal Police Pension Law. In the absence of carefully crafted legislation, compliance with federal anti-discrimination rules and the Internal Revenue Code could be problematic as well. Under a DROP, the employee forgoes somewhat higher ultimate monthly pension benefits, but gains Pennsylvania local governments, and the clear need to integrate DROPs with existing federal and state laws, such as the Internal Revenue Code, The Age Discrimination in Employment Act, the Pension Forfeiture Act, the Municipal Pension Plan Funding Standard and Recovery Act Hits: 13
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf Knittel, Director Budget Roundtable Fiscal Year 2023-24 January 31, 2024 Overview and Notes Mid-Year Update presented Jan 30 • Revenue and economic update • A few demographic, revenue and economic slides added to provide context IFO required to examine all revenue proposals in the Executive Budget Slide 2 Hits: 12
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 4, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released new revenue estimates for FY 2014-15 and FY 2015-16, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an Hits: 12
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf last analysis: SB 76 of 2013. Conclude: Consider current proposal and forecasts. 1/19/2017 2 FY14-15 School District Revenues 1/19/2017 3 Source Amount Percent Property Tax $12,285 44.5% Earned Income $1,476 5.4% Other profits. PA excludes $400 million of one-time escheats gains and a $227 million transfer. Sources: US Census Bureau (tax revenues), US Bureau of Economic Analysis (personal income). Data for FY 2013-14 and FY 2014-15. Ratio: State and Local Hits: 12
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf Pennsylvania Business Council June 22, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real State GDP 1.1% 0.7% 1 5% Personal Income 12,088 5.7% 12,662 4.8% Inheritance 984 12.1% 906 -7.9% Other Tax Revenue 4,034 -2.8% 3,981 -1.3% Non-Tax Revenue 1,107 117.4% 543 -50.9% Dollar amounts Hits: 12
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the A Look Forward: Pennsylvania’s Economic and Revenue Outlook 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation 2015 54.9 55.6 n.a. Updated 48.6 52.4 50.6 May 13, 2016 7 Short‐Term Revenue Outlook • Modest, But Steady Revenue Growth • Capital Stock & Franchise Tax Phased‐Out • Recent Reliance on One‐Time Revenues May 13 Hits: 12
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for the Department of Revenue. All performance-based budget (PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided Hits: 12
MTR-2015-07.pdf Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16-19 51.9% 48.8% 44.4% 40.9% Monthly Trends Report General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul 2015 $2,135 $2,097 $38 Growth -4.9% 5.1% -84.9% FYTD $2,135 $2,097 $38 Hits: 12
MRU_2024_05.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. General Fund collections for May were $3.36 billion, $7 million (-0.2% collections were $64 million (+2.0%) higher than collections for May 2023. (See next page.) Fiscal year-to- date (FYTD) revenues of $41.84 billion are $320 million (+0.8%) higher than expected. Revenue highlights for the major tax types include Hits: 12
MRU_2024_04.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. General Fund collections for April were $5.69 billion, $43 million (+0.8% collections were $30 million (+0.5%) higher than collections for April 2023. (See next page.) Fiscal year-to -date (FYTD) revenues of $38.48 billion are $326 million (+0.9%) higher than expected. Revenue highlights for the major tax types include Hits: 12
MRU_2021_03.pdf General Fund revenue collections for March were $4.84 billion, $284.2 million (6.2 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the March exceeded estimate by $72.5 million (5.6 percent) mainly due to overages in withholding and quarterly payments. Withholding revenues were over estimate by $37.8 million (3.4 percent), while quarterly payments exceeded estimate by $28.0 million (56 Hits: 12
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast.  General weakness Recent U.S. data confirm weak PA trends: 2017 Q1 Real GDP +0.7% growth, +0.3% consumer spending. The Revenue Forecast.  All forecasts except tobacco and IPT underperform.  Base growth rate for FYTD is negative (-1.0%).  Hits: 12
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf Pension-IRA $61 2018 PA Cash Income $599 PA Wage Income $348 Bus Net Inc $59 November 14, 2019 13 Revenue and Expenditure Outlooks Revenues above IFO estimate by $230 million through October  Adding $200m to official estimate  Strength in sales-use, escheats Hits: 12
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf on combined reporting, the use of the filing method by other states and the IFO’s perspective on the potential revenue impact. Background Under mandatory combined reporting, multi-state firms that form a unitary group are required to file a combined based on the ownership of the group, as well as the relationships between the entities within the group. Estimating the revenue impact from combined reporting is subject to uncertainty, largely because taxing authorities lack full information regarding the characteristics of potential Hits: 12
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf s Presentation Four Parts  Demographics a contracting labor force  Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  Expenditures significant growth due to one-time measures Analysis finds a ~$2 PA Cash Income Growth Very Strong January 21, 2021 10 Source: Various state and federal agency websites. See IFO Official Revenue Estimate Methodology (June 2020). Disconnect: Labor Market vs Other PA Indicators January 21, 2021 11 Economic Negatives Economic Positives Payroll Hits: 12
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf the Congressional Budget Office. • Supply non-partisan analysis. • No governing board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at 2 Projected Budget Deficit February 28, 2017 3 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Growth Begin Balance $275 $2 -$936 Revenue Available 29,855 30,994 31,309 1.0% Expenditures 30,127 31,931 33,410 4.6% Ending Balance Hits: 12
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 in addition to those listed. See program guidelines for complete details. Educational Tax Credit Overview | Page 8 The Department of Revenue (DOR) evaluates all applications for state tax compliance. Applications consid- ered noncompliant will not be eligible for the credit, unless Hits: 11
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues and subtracting year one employment (average of the first four quarters). DCED issues tax 4 The Department of Revenue performs compliance checks on applicants and ensures that approved tax credits are used appropriately. 5 See “Job Creation Tax Credit: Program Guidelines Hits: 11
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf  Analysis Results:  Surplus or shortfall to (1) the Education Stabilization Fund and (2) school districts.  Detail by revenue source.  Background on Property Tax forecast.  Some general economic analysis. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and 01%.  Transfers from Property Tax Relief Fund.  Analysis assumes that General Fund is held harmless and Department of Revenue able to separate new revenues from existing revenues. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 Hits: 11
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf were $533 million and delinquent collections were $535 million, resulting in a total of $14.6 billion for school district revenues related to the property tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2018-19 in late Spring FY 2024-25, which comprise approximately 93 percent of receipts related to the school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) millage rate increases as limited under Hits: 11
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 15, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimate (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released its official revenue estimate, according to director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 4th, and the official Hits: 11
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office May 26, 2020 Solid PA Growth Prior to Pandemic May 26, 2020 1 1.4% -0.1% 1.5% 6.3% Per Capita Consumer Debt 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% Revenues Through March (exclude COVID-19) +$165 million over estimate Note: Figures for 2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Hits: 11
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf those data in a report that summarizes outcomes and calculates the ratio of projected employer pension contributions to projected state revenues. Regular stress testing provides policymakers with useful information regarding the potential budget implications if investment returns diverge from assumed rates 2 Table 2 uses data from various IFO, SERS and PSERS reports to project the share of General Fund (GF) revenue that will be needed to support the state’s pension obligations. Since FY 2015-16, Commonwealth pension obligations have outpaced Hits: 11
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf may be prohibited by a pension plan statute or would endanger the pension plan’s qualified status under the Internal Revenue Code, the list should not be used as an automatic approval of any listed investment. Prudent Person Rule. In addition of the pension plan. The financial data provide information on the financial position of the pension trust fund and the revenues and expenses of the fund. The demographic data provide information on the current number and compensation of active and retired Hits: 11
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf February 27, 2018 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office CompetePA Retreat Economy, Revenues and Budget Pennsylvania economic growth rates or change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.3% 0.6% 46.7 52.2 60.4 61.8 Home Price Index 2.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% Tax revenues exceed estimate through February (+$135 million)  Strong acceleration of estimated income tax payments in Dec-Jan (+33%)  Mini- Hits: 11
MTR-2017-08.pdf governments continue to devote more resources to education and treatment. The Pennsylvania Opioid Crisis General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Aug-17 $2,129 $2,086 $43 Growth 5.6% 4.5% 119.5% FYTD $4,214 $4,149 $65 Hits: 11
MTR-2017-07.pdf boost to wage growth during the next few quarters. PA PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH STEADY General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul-17 $2,085 $2,063 $22 Growth 5.7% 6.7% -42.4% FYTD $2,085 $2,063 $22 Hits: 11
MTR-2016-09.pdf GENERAL FUND SNAPSHOT The Commonwealth collected $2.63 billion in General Fund revenues for September, a decrease of $106.5 million (-3.9%) compared to September 2015. Fiscal year-to-date reve- nues of gas and motor vehicles. Excludes services. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce. PA: Annual growth rate of sales tax revenues based on latest three months of data. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. Source: PA Dept Hits: 11
MRU_2023_12.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. General Fund collections for December were $3.70 billion, $182.8 million (-4 August. December collections were $342.2 million (-8.5%) below collections compared to December 2022. Fiscal year-to -date (FYTD) revenues of $19.84 billion are $85.3 million (-0.4%) lower than anticipated. Revenue highlights for the major tax types Hits: 11
MRU_2021_04.pdf General Fund revenue collections were $3.96 billion in April, $277.2 million (-6.5%) lower than the monthly projections associated with the the FYTD shortfall will be eliminated with the receipt of delayed annual payments in May. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) revenues reached $478.5 million in April. The monthly performance was the result of higher than anticipated final payments (+$193.8 Hits: 11
MRU-2020-09.pdf September revenue collections of $3.26 billion were $347.3 million (11.9 percent) higher than the monthly projection associated with the income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $739.6 million (8.1 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were $132.9 million (15.4 percent) above estimate due to strong non-motor vehicle (NMV) and motor vehicle (MV Hits: 11
MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdf 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Matthew Knittel, Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Fiscal Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst and Quarterly Estimates | Page 1 FY 2023-24 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates This report provides monthly estimates for General Fund revenues and quarterly estimates for Motor Li- cense and Lottery Fund revenues for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. The monthly and Hits: 11
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25, 2017 Presentation has three parts.  Economic update. Unexpected broad weakness.  Revenue update for FY 2016-17.  Revenue forecast for FY 2017-18. Theme: What is driving weakness?  Base General Hits: 11
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2021 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2021, the PUC reported impact fee revenues were $234.4 million, which is $88.2 million more than the amount collected for the prior year. Table 2 Hits: 11
IFO_Testimony_CR_June_29_2023.pdf New Mexico (2020). ▪ In 2021 and 2022, legislation was introduced in Virginia and Maryland. The second table displays recent published revenue estimates for states that enacted or proposed combined reporting: ▪ Across these states, there appears to be a consensus that combined reporting would increase tax revenues by roughly 8% to 12%. ▪ Some states did not issue a revenue impact estimate due to the high degree of Hits: 11
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of Hits: 11
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf the total 2019 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development 384 2.90% -- Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Property taxes include actual current and interim and estimated delinquent school district revenues for FY 2019-20 and estimated CY 2019 county and municipal revenues. Tax burden is equal to total property taxes Hits: 11
April_1_Revenue_Update.pdf 2024 Dear Chairs Martin, Hughes, Harris and Grove: This letter provides a brief update to the IFO’s General Fund revenue forecast based on year-to-date revenues. Through March, revenues are running $284 million (0.9%) above the IFO’s FY 2023-24 Official Estimate (published June Hits: 11
2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2023 Impact Fee Revenues The estimate for the CY 2023 impact fee is $174.0 million, a $104.8 million (-37.6%) decline from 2023 than any year since the impact fee’s inception. Estimated impact: -$20.7 million. 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Revenues $146.3 $234.4 $278.9 $174.0 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 76.7 129.0 155.5 92 Hits: 11
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Hits: 11
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf This report provides an updated forecast of statewide school district property taxes based on the latest published revenue data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The most recent school district property tax data published by are receipts from non-delinquent property taxes levied for the current fiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes collected from homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property Hits: 10
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf were $532 million and delinquent collections were $552 million, resulting in a total of $14.1 billion for school district revenues related to the property tax. 1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2017-18 in late 17, estimated by IFO thereafter. Forecast Overview Independent Fiscal Office March 2019 2 school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) tax rate increases as limited under Hits: 10
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 16, 2014 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimate (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released its official revenue estimate, according to director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 1, and the official Hits: 10
RB-2018-01.pdf were $530 million and delinquent collections were $569 million, resulting in a total of $13.7 billion for school district revenues related to the property tax. 1 The department is expected to release actual collections for FY 2016-17 in late FY 2022-23, which represent approximately 93 percent of receipts related to the school property tax, are based on projected revenue growth from (1) tax base expansion (also referred to as economic growth) and (2) tax rate increases as limited under Hits: 10
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office June 22, 2020 Solid PA Growth Prior to Pandemic June 22, 2020 1 1.4% -0.1% 1.5% 6.3% Per Capita Consumer Debt 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% Revenues Through March (exclude COVID-19) +$165 million over estimate Note: Figures for 2020.1 for Net New Jobs and Home Hits: 10
MRU_2024_1.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. General Fund collections for January were $3.91 billion, $30.3 million (-0 2023. Roughly $243 million of the increase was related to timing (processing/due date shifts). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) revenues of $23.75 billion are $124.2 million (-0.5%) lower than anticipated. Revenue highlights for the major tax types Hits: 10
MRU_2024_06.pdf In June 2023, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. General Fund collections for June 2024 were $3.63 billion, $47 million (-1 above the IFO estimate. June collections were $53 million (-1.4%) lower than collections for June 2023. (See next page.) Revenue highlights for the major tax types include: ▪ June corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections of $917 million were $13 million Hits: 10
MRU_2021_02.pdf In February, General Fund revenue collections of $2.68 billion were $509.7 million (23.4 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the Independent along with insurance premiums ($17.5 million, 181.9 percent) and realty transfer ($12.8 million, 44.0 percent) tax revenues. These overages were slightly undercut by a shortfall in gross receipts (-$2.5 million, -48.2 percent) tax collections. Monthly Hits: 10
MRU_2021_01.pdf For January, General Fund revenue collections were $2.66 billion, which were $245.8 million (-8.5 percent) below the monthly projections associated with the a payment processing center in late January related to COVID-19 caused most of the PIT shortfall for non-withholding revenues. As a result, payments that would typically be recorded in January will be shifted into February. The IFO expects to Hits: 10
MRU_2020_11.pdf For November, revenue collections were $2.34 billion, which was $90.9 million above the monthly projections associated with the Independent Fiscal Office motor ($75.2 million, 9.7 percent) and motor vehicle ($20.0 million, 17.3 percent) collections. FYTD SUT tax revenues also exceed the forecast ($681.6 million). The result is due to an overage in both non-motor ($562.0 Hits: 10
MRU-2020-12.pdf For December, revenue collections were $3.68 billion, which were $774.4 million (26.6 percent) above the monthly projections associated with the 1 million, 4.8 percent), with an additional $3.4 million (2.8 percent) from motor vehicle collections. FYTD SUT revenues exceed estimate ($726.2 million, 12.8 percent) due to non-motor ($603.2 million, 12.4 percent) and motor Hits: 10
MRU-2020-08.pdf On August 27, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 based on its official estimate released June 22. Compared to those estimates, General income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $392.3 million (6.3 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were $150.8 million (17.1 percent) above estimate due to overages in both non-motor vehicle (NMV) and motor Hits: 10
MRU-2020-06.pdf June revenue collections of $2.67 billion fell short of monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 billion, $3.24 billion (-9.1 percent) below estimate. The shortfall roughly consists of: (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended Hits: 10
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 2, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released new revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an Hits: 10
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf Office January 31, 2012 How Will the Proposed Extension of the Payroll Tax Cut Impact the PA Economy and Tax Revenues? Director’s Note: The following text discusses the possible economic impact from a policy under consideration by the U.S to extend the payroll tax cut for the full year. How will the proposed extension affect Commonwealth residents and tax revenues for the current and subsequent fiscal years? BACKGROUND The Federal Insurance Contributions Act tax (FICA, also known as the payroll Hits: 9
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues be claimed in one year cannot exceed 50% of the taxpayer's CNIT liability. Source: PA Department of Revenue. Section 3: State Comparison | Page 7 Section 3: State Comparison The expansion of broadband infrastructure is a common state public policy initiative Hits: 9
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf 26-27 27-28 28-29 Beginning Balance $8,160 $6,855 $1,860 $0 -$5,456 -$14,422 Baseline Revenues (no policy) 45,028 45,278 46,012 47,277 48,393 49,690 Less: Refunds plus Lapses -961 -1,178 -1,189 -1,188 -1,186 -1,183 Net Revenues 44,067 44,101 44,823 46,089 47,207 48,507 Expenditures (w/ FY 24-25 policy) 44,610 Hits: 9
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf October Revenue and Economic Update FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office October 29, 2020 Modest Improvement to 2020 Economic Forecast October 29 consumption down ~10%  Home improvement, cars, appliances and computers all taxable October 29, 2020 7 Mitigation vs. Recovery Period: Revenue Growth Rates October 29, 2020 8 Mitigation Mar to Jun Recovery Jul to Oct Notes General Fund Tax -9.2% Hits: 9
RB_2024_07_Budget_Update.pdf Per statute, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes an annual five-year projection of General Fund revenues and expenditures each November. For November 2023, the report projected General Fund operating deficits of -$624 million (FY 23-24 amounts can now be updated based on the FY 24-25 enacted budget, recent tax law changes and the latest revenue estimates. For the same three fiscal years, the updated deficits are -$892 million (FY 23-24), -$3.3 billion (FY Hits: 9
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf brief uses the latest student loan data and the IMPLAN economic model to quantify the state economic and General Fund revenue impact from the resumption of student loan repayments. For Pennsylvania residents with student loan debt, the latest data from the publications/2020-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2019-student-loans-other- education-debt.htm. 3 The economic and revenue impact analysis assumes a 12% default rate, so that net repayments are $5.9 billion per annum. For 2019 Q4 Hits: 9
RB-2016-02.pdf resources through the tax system instead of through the annual budget process. These values should not be construed as the revenue that could be gained if a particular tax incentive were repealed, as the economic activity may not have occurred in the tax incentive is unknown (N/A) or nominal. The Department of Community and Economic Development and the Department of Revenue administer most tax incentives. Figures shown below are generally from the tax expenditure section of the Executive Budget. Figures for Hits: 9
QRE_FY15-16.xlsx General Fund FY 2015-16 General Fund Revenue Estimates (dollar amounts in millions) 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 FY 2015-16 Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Total General Fund $6,662.1 $6,570.8 $8,644.9 $8,843.8 $30,721.6 Total Tax Revenue 6,620.1 6,505.7 8,498.9 8,553.5 30,178.2 Total Corporation Taxes 660.3 Hits: 9
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf 2016.  More income dedicated to housing expenses.  More housing debt. III.Funding for Seniors’ Programs.  Outlook for revenue sources is tepid.  Demand and price effects create imbalance. May 24, 2017 2 I. Demographic Trends  Subtle, yet Withdrawls Wages Business Income 2006 2014 May 24, 2017 14 The “Three Legged Stool” is now a chair. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Includes adjustments for unreported income. Data are for U.S. Senior Spending Patterns Shift Share of Spending for Age Hits: 9
NGIFE-2018.pdf produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Revenues $225,752 $223,500 $187,712 $173,259 $219,371 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 123,151 123,300 Hits: 9
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Marcellus Shale Coalition Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 31, 2022 1 Overview A sizable budget surplus this year ▪ Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Approximately $6 billion in federal relief supports current year budget ▪ Proposed for FY 22-23: Minimum wage and regional prices remain high | impact fee is elevated ▪ Will international demand impact PA production? March 31, 2022 2 FYTD Revenues (Adjusted for Delayed Due Dates) March 31, 2022 3 Actual Revenues ($ millions) Amount (e) Growth Notes on Adjustments General Fund Hits: 9
MRU-2020-10.pdf Revenue collections for October were $2.59 billion, which was $275.2 million (11.9 percent) above the monthly projection associated net income tax (CNIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $1.01 billion (8.8 percent). SUT revenues for October totaled $1,089.4 million, $132.5 million (13.8 percent) over estimate, mainly due to stronger than Hits: 9
MRU-2020-07.pdf In August, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2020 -21. For July, General Fund collections were $4.10 billion and $1.77 billion pandemic. Excluding this shift, July monthly collections exceeded the prior year total by $154.8 million, or 6.6 percent. Revenues were likely bolstered by pent-up demand from COVID-19 business closures earlier this year and the continued effect of Hits: 9
MRU-2020-05.pdf May revenue collections of $2.11 billion fell below monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August 2019 by the COVID-19 virus. The shortfall is entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $430 million in lost revenue from reduced economic activity, (2) $15 million in processing delays or delayed due dates (expected to resolve in the current Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf Growth in instant ticket (+$465 million, +19%) and iLottery (+$208 million, +25%) explain over 80% of increased sales. Pennsylvania Gaming Revenue Sets Record in March The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board released monthly gaming revenues for March 2021. Gaming revenues totaled $403.1 million, surpassing the previous monthly high of $320.2 million in October Hits: 9
mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 25, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2016-17 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than Hits: 9
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 28, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2014-15 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15. The revised estimate is $30.207 billion, which is $250 million higher than Hits: 9
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf 20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 Beginning Balance $30 -$2,734 -- -- -- -- -- Current Year Revenues 32,276 38,437 $36,675 $37,851 $39,352 $40,828 $42,321 Less Refunds -1,150 -1,300 -1,326 -1,353 -1,380 -1,407 -1,435 Net Revenues 31,126 37,137 35,349 36,498 37,972 39,421 40,885 State Expenditures -34,090 -33,141 Hits: 9
Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdf utilize their individual index. 5 If a large school district with a relatively high share of statewide school property tax revenue has an adjusted index that exceeds the base index, then that would increase the gap between statewide revenue growth and the base index. 1 School districts may seek approval from the Pennsylvania Department of Education to raise the Hits: 9
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf were $533 million and delinquent collections were $551 million, resulting in a total of $15.0 billion for school district revenues related to the property tax. 1 The department plans to release actual collections for FY 2019-20 in late Spring are receipts from non-delinquent property taxes levied for the current fiscal year. Act 1 allocations are distributions of slots revenue from the Property Tax Relief Fund to reduce property taxes collected from homestead properties. Delinquent collections are receipts from property Hits: 9
2004_srpvffinal.pdf funds may be spent and the types of benefits an FRA may provide to its members. STATE AID State aid revenues distributed annually to FRAs are derived from a 2 percent tax imposed on the gross premiums of fire insurance policies contribution range. The flexibility of funding that occurs with the adoption of a contribution range is particularly appropriate where the revenues available for funding the retirement plan may vary over time and where the retirement benefit is not the primary source Hits: 9
About IFO Article VI-B of the Administrative Code . The office Mission Statement is as follows: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections along with objective analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in MPA from the University of Pennsylvania and a B.A. in Political Science from Bryn Mawr College. Stacey Knavel Principal Revenue Analyst Formerly employed as a manager in the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue's Bureau of Research, where she coordinated the Hits: 9
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 credit is accomplishing its legislative intent. For this credit, the IFO reviewed the documentation provided by the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue (DOR) and the authorizing legislation for the Brewers’ Tax Credit. The IFO established the specific and quantifiable goals and general Hits: 8
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Browne requested an update of the IFO’s five-year projections of General Fund revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget. The fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and 2022-23 revenue projections in the updated General Fund financial statement (next page) utilize projections published in the IFO’s FY 2021-22 Hits: 8
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2024.pdf million (3.3%) over the prior year and the largest increase since FY 2018-19. The Philadelphia School District impacted revenue growth, as current-year property taxes increased by $127 million (14.9%). This outcome was largely due to a county million in FY 2022-23. This increase of $138 million (25.8%) represents additional property tax relief distributed from gaming revenues to owners of homestead and farmstead properties. For FY 2024- 25, allocations will increase again to $800 million, $132 million Hits: 8
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf to contract ▪ Labor force participation rates do not recover from COVID decline Economics ▪ Forecast assumes reversion to “normal” economic growth Revenues ▪ Inflation boosts stock and home values | business profits far above historical levels Expenditures ▪ All FY 22-23 funding increases assumed 2020 2021 2022 +42% +24% +50% 2018 Q1 = 1.00 +48% +68% pre-COVID economy Baseline Forecast: Big 3 Tax Revenues January 24, 2023 12 Corp Net Income +1.7% avg ann growth (AAGR) from base year PIT Non-Wage +4 Hits: 8
RB_2024_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf This research brief utilizes (1) county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Statewide $18,419 2.45% -- Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Property taxes include actual current, interim and delinquent school district revenues for FY 2022-23 and CY 2022 county and municipal revenues. Tax burden is equal to total property taxes paid Hits: 8
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf related mitigation efforts. Due to those efforts, many firms suspended operations temporarily. The loans would be used to replace lost revenues and allow firms to retain employees who might otherwise be released. To qualify for loan forgiveness, loans must have been receiving loans that did not intend to lay off employees. Other firms that received loans might not have incurred a revenue reduction, or incurred only a brief, temporary reduction that was recouped in subsequent months. The SBA Inspector General has also Hits: 8
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf The original documents can be found on the IFO website. 1 Table 1 provides the most recent breakdown of the revenue sources used by school districts. The data show that property taxes comprised 42.4 percent of school district funds for 60 percent). Graph 2 uses the same data as Graph 1 but displays annual growth rates for the three tax revenue sources. The data show that personal income tax has been more volatile than sales or property tax. I hope that Hits: 8
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the The Impact of Demographics on General Fund Revenues and Expenditures 2016 Pennsylvania Data User Conference May 12, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Non‐partisan analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly Hits: 8
perez ppt.pdf Arturo Pérez NCSL Fiscal Affairs Program Director Overview – State fiscal conditions continue to improve, but at a very slow pace. – Revenue performance is solid – Expenditures are stable – Budget gaps are few in FY 2012 Overview (continued) – States face ongoing budget challenges Flat (-1% to 1%), n= 3 Less than -1%, n= 6 Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal officers, summer 2011. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2012 0 16 28 7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Pessimistic Concerned Hits: 8
NGIFE-2016.pdf produce less than 90 Mcf (thousand cubic feet) per day are exempt. Plugged horizontal wells are Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Revenues $202,472 $225,752 $223,500 $187,712 $174,600 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 107,683 123,151 Hits: 8
MRU-2020-04.pdf Revenue collections of $2.18 billion in April were below monthly projections released by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in August IFO estimates that the shortfall is almost entirely attributable to the virus and consists of: (1) $385 million in lost revenue due to reduced economic activity, (2) $140 million in processing delays or delayed due dates (expected to resolve in the Hits: 8
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf COVID-19 Revenue Losses Place Some Pennsylvania Municipalities at Risk The University of Pittsburgh released a tool that estimates the potential revenue loss to Pennsylvania municipalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Researchers estimate that revenue losses range from $833 million to Hits: 8
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf the estimated CY 2019 collections with actual collections and distributions for the prior three years. Introduction Table 1: Impact Fee Revenue and Distributions 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Distributions 1 $173,259 $209,557 $251,831 $198,200 Counties, Municipalities and from prior years. This component includes the total impact of both factors: Estimated impact: -$7.5 million. 2019 Impact Fee Revenues Independent Fiscal Office January 2020 2 Table 2: Well Count and Estimated Collections for 2019 Operating Number of Number of Hits: 8
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf March 2, 2022 letter that asks the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues. This analysis uses the same data sources and methodologies used to provide previous estimates. The updated tables are as follows paid $2.73 billion in school property taxes in fiscal year 2019-20. Table 2 provides updated estimates for potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if they were eliminated. Language for this proposal is contained within House Hits: 8
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Real GDP which is quarterly annualized rate. Wage-Salaries growth for 2022.3 and 2022.4 based on withholding tax revenues. Change Payroll Jobs is annual change for the quarter compared to prior year. Labor market data are seasonally adjusted. Source for all groups in 2022 Q1 Inflation = 14% real change is negative Checking + Savings + Money Market Accounts FY 2022-23 Revenues Through January January 31, 2023 13 Dollar Amount YOY Growth Adjusted Growth Notes General Fund Revenues $23,344 -10.7% Hits: 8
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2020 Impact Fee Revenues The estimate for the CY 2020 impact fee is $144.9 million, which represents a $55.9 million decrease from 500 10,500 10,500 Conservation Districts/Commission 7,750 7,897 7,897 7,897 Table 1: Impact Fee Revenue and Distributions Note: Dollar amounts in thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Hits: 8
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 PRM tax credits should be subject to an annual program cap. This would limit the potential impact on state tax revenues.  Recipients of the PRM Tax Credit should be required to maintain jobs created under the program for a specified Hits: 7
Tax_Modernization_Mar_2024.pdf Data Notes Data Tabs are for Tax Year 2019 (in $ billions) Source: all tax returns filed with PA Dept of Revenue (includes non-residents) Tax Modernization & Reform Slide 1 Grown to 2023 based on preliminary data Income groupings use reported PA Income $335.4 100% $5.19 100% Factor: Grow to 2023 20% 6% 2023 Income Amount $401.5 $5.50 Revenue: 1% tax $4.0 $0.05 Dividends and Sale of Property (Capital Gains) Slide 4 Tax Modernization & Reform Dividends Sale Hits: 7
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf next two years? ▪ Many analysts believe very likely | this forecast assumes stagnation What caused the surge in April income tax revenues? ▪ Data suggest much of it is capital gains income ▪ Stock market contraction implies it is temporary What will the Federal inflation rates and labor market data based on April 2022 only. 2022 Wages and Salaries growth rates based on withholding revenues. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Monies to Pennsylvania May 23, 2022 Hits: 7
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released updated revenue estimates for FY 2015-16 and FY 2016-17, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues its Hits: 7
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf This research brief utilizes county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development Statewide $21,986 2.57% -- Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Property taxes include actual current, interim and delinquent school district revenues for FY 2021-22 and CY 2021 county and municipal revenues. Tax burden is equal to total property taxes paid Hits: 7
RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) returns filed for tax year (TY) 2019 with the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue. That tax year was the final year prior to an historic surge in corporate profits that coincided with the COVID- for TY 2019 Taxable Income and Liability Note: Millions of dollars. Source: Tax returns filed with the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue. Calculations by IFO. No Liability Total 2,500,001 or more Corporate Net Income Tax Data 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 7
RB-2019-01.pdf produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Revenues $223,500 $187,712 $173,259 $209,557 $246,970 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 123,300 101,800 Hits: 7
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf the total 2020 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development Statewide $21,501 2.72% -- Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Property taxes include actual current, interim and delinquent school district revenues for FY 2020-21 and CY 2020 county and municipal revenues. Tax burden is equal to total property taxes paid Hits: 7
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf use to assess the fiscal sustainability of current tax and spending policies,” Knittel said. The report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. On a current-policy basis, the analysis finds that expenditure growth has the potential to significantly exceed revenue growth over this period. Other major findings include:  The Pennsylvania economy will continue to expand, but at a lackluster Hits: 7
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf Raised by Advocates:  Alleviates poverty.  Greater job satisfaction.  Less turnover.  Expands the economy and generates tax revenues.  Reduces expenditures on healthcare programs (Medicaid). Raised by Opponents:  They are "starter" wages paid to inexperienced workers.  Includes all primary and secondary jobs, all full- and part-time. Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Source: "Analysis of Revenue Proposals," IFO (March 2019). Projected Employment Impact (2018) May 1, 2019 9 Lower Upper % Change Avg Wage # Jobs Affected Change Hits: 7
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: flill@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 gambling. The table above displays trends and a demographic breakdown related to gambling helpline calls received and references annual gaming revenues, including revenues from gaming expansion. The table also shows active enrollments in the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board’s self-exclusion Hits: 7
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues active licensees.  In 2018, the State Athletic Commission sanctioned a record 552 events and generated its largest revenue to date at $904,000.  For FY 2018-19, DOS registered 17,323 notary public candidates. Activity Primary Service 1 Elections Hits: 7
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues n.a. Law enforcement program transactions $5,359 $425 $2,277 $6,136 $2,639 n.a. Recycling revenue $3,053 $2,381 $2,355 $3,095 $1,988 n.a. Recycling costs paid (responsible recycling) $442 $420 $454 $465 $459 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf support programs provided temporary funding that allowed many households to pay down their debt. Number of Small Businesses Open and Revenues Decline from July Peak Opportunity Insights released updated data for the number of small businesses open and small business revenues, as compared to January 2020. Small businesses open in the U.S. declined by 12.5% at the beginning of Hits: 7
May_1_Revenue_Update.pdf 2024 Dear Chairs Martin, Hughes, Harris and Grove: This letter provides a second update to the IFO’s General Fund revenue forecast based on year-to-date revenues. Through April, revenues are running $326 million (+0.9%) above the IFO’s fiscal year (FY) 2023- 24 Official Estimate Hits: 7
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf Energy +33% Durables +14% Grocery +13% CPI-U +8.4% Year-Over-Year Growth Philadelphia CPI-U 2 General Fund Revenues A massive infusion of federal funds, inflation and changes in consumer purchase patterns caused a surge in General Fund tax revenues in FY 2021-22 relative to (1) FY 2018-19 (latest pre-pandemic year) and (2) the overall state economy Hits: 7
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf II Looking Back: 2020-2023 ▪ Did any borrowers continue to pay? | who was impacted? ▪ Size of repayment pause | economic and revenue impact (IMPLAN) ▪ Supporting data and research | caveats and technical issues III Looking Forward: 2024 ▪ New SAVE income driven repayment (IDR) plan | lots of uncertainty ▪ Economic and revenue impact (IMPLAN) Disclaimer: not an endorsement/critique of any modeling software! October 3, 2023 1 I. Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Hits: 7
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Updated revenue estimates suggest policymakers could face a budget imbalance of more than $500 million in the current fiscal year. The projected Hits: 7
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf 171 million for the current fiscal year and $1,679 million related to next year.” Knittel said. “The non-recurring revenues and one-time costs savings employed in the FY 2014-15 budget contribute significantly to this deficit.” The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through FY 2019-20. Based on assumptions used in Hits: 7
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo Hits: 7
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible Slide 2 Mid-Year Update Economy somewhat stronger than assumed, but revenues running slightly under forecast PA Economic Forecast Update: June 2023 vs January 2024 Slide 3 Mid-Year Update 2021 2022 9 Payroll Jobs +56 000s jobs Note: All Jobs includes self-employed, multiple jobs holder counted once FY 2023-24 Revenues Through January Slide 9 Mid-Year Update Dollar Amount Dollar Change YOY Growth Notes General Fund Revenues $23,735 $376 Hits: 7
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2022 Impact Fee Revenues The estimate for the CY 2022 impact fee is $274.8 million, a $40.4 million (17.2%) increase from than offset the impact of aging wells paying lower fees. Estimated impact: $+5.7 million. 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Revenues $200.4 $146.3 $234.4 $274.8 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 109.2 76.7 129.0 153 Hits: 7
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf flat growth in post-secondary employment over the nine years. Chairman Browne asked if the IFO and the Department of Revenue had discussed the differences in the current year revenue estimates. During the Department of Revenue’s (DOR) Senate Budget Hearing, DOR noted that the Executive Budget came together in Hits: 6
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf IFO provides the enclosed table in response to that request. Please note the following:  The estimates utilize the latest revenue forecast released by the IFO (June 21, 2019 and updated to reflect statutory changes that were enacted with the fiscal at the state level.  The SUT estimates assume that any increase in the SUT rate would coincide with a revenue neutral adjustment to the SUT transfers for public transportation. In other words, public transportation would not receive a funding windfall Hits: 6
RB_2024_09_Who_Pays_Gaming_Taxes.pdf was $1,375 and average income was $132,000. 2 The paper found that roughly one- half of casino net revenues (after payouts) was attributable to 3% of gamblers, so gambling losses were highly concentrated in a small number of bettors 6% of income (not shown), compared to 0.2% for all residents. 1 See “Online Gambling Policy Effects on Tax Revenue and Irresponsible Gambling,” (June 2024). Income data were available for 33.7% of potential gamblers. 2 Because some types of Hits: 6
Public_Data-General_Fund.xlsx Fiscal Year SUMMARY | DETAIL - CORPORATE TAXES | DETAIL - CONSUMPTION TAXES | DETAIL - OTHER TAXES | DETAIL - NON-TAX REVENUES (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) Fiscal Year Total General Fund Total Tax Revenue Total Corporation Taxes Total Consumption Taxes Total Other Taxes Total Nontax Revenue | Corporate Tax Clearing Account Corporate Net Income Capital Hits: 6
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf 24, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $1.71 billion in the upcoming Hits: 6
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf 23, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $0.99 billion in the upcoming Hits: 6
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf November Economic and Revenue Update PICA Fall Conference 2020 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 18, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data November consumer spending patterns revert?  Do individuals rejoin the labor force, or get by with less? November 18, 2020 6 Revenues Are Up First 4 Months of Fiscal Year November 18, 2020 7 Mitigation Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul Hits: 6
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 hourly cost for contractors declined from a high of $208 in FY 2018-19 to $181 in FY 2021-22. Revenues received for PID staff work are deposited into the Insurance Regulation and Oversight Fund (IROF) and comprise between 40% to Hits: 6
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues economic impact and to increase the number of hotel rooms sold, travelers’ expenditures and state and local tax revenues in the Commonwealth. Resources 14-15 Actual 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Budget Hits: 6
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues the supervised population that is employed either full- or part-time at the end of the fiscal year. • Revenue generated (total and per inmate) from PCI. The revenue generated measure re- flects the sale of goods and services to governmental and Hits: 6
NewsStand_2019_October.pdf the homeownership rate is anticipated to decline. Americans Pay about 86% of Federal Taxes Owed On September 26, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released new estimates on taxpayer compliance. It report- ed an annual gap of $381 billion between taxes owed per capita) in 2018. Pennsylvania Ranks 2nd in Nation for "Sin Tax” Reliance A new Tax Policy Center report discusses revenue trends for common (alcohol, tobacco and gambling) and emerging (marijuana, e-cigarettes and sugar-sweetened beverages) sin taxes. In 2017 Hits: 6
MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf Monthly Trends Report Independent Fiscal Office Highlights of the October Report October 2015 General Fund revenues declined by $110 million (-4.9%) compared to the same month in the prior year. However, the comparison with the prior year is affected by one-time payments and timing issues. October 2014 inheritance tax revenues included a $100 million payment that did not recur this year. In addition, some personal income tax withholding collections associated Hits: 6
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf request is received from an authorized requestor, then the model may be used for proposals that could impact General Fund revenues by $50 million or more in a single year. For the three bills cited in your letter, the IFO assessed whether the static revenue impact exceeds that threshold. The results for the three bills are as follows: • HB 105 allows conformity to the federal Hits: 6
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to discuss recent economic and revenue trends. I would also like to make some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based budget (PBB) plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY 2018-19 Through January, actual revenues exceed the IFO official revenue estimate by $321 million (and the Hits: 6
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Frank Lill, Budget Analyst I - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and Hits: 6
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf average assessed value of a home is a little over $100,000. The district is very dependent on state revenue as it makes up about 57% and local being 39%. With our district being very poor it is hard to keep behavior. Milton Area SD Milton Area School District looks forward to additional state education subsidy payments. Increasing our future revenues and making them more predictable will serve our students and community immensely. We face pressure from drastically increasing cyber charter costs Hits: 6
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf Independent Fiscal Office January 21, 2016 IFO to Release Revised Revenue Estimates and Updated Fiscal Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016 Hits: 6
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2021 Impact Fee Revenues The estimate for the CY 2021 impact fee is $233.8 million, which represents an $87.6 million increase from 2018 include $5.0 million in fees attributable to 2016 and 2017 that were remitted late. Table 1: Impact Fee Revenue and Distributions 2021 Impact Fee Estimate INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly Hits: 6
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Mid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2019-20 Preliminary Forecast FY 2020-21 January 28, 2020 PA Economic Forecast: June 2019 exclude independent contractors and self-employed. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Revenues July 2019 to January 2020 January 28, 2020 7 Actual Revenues IFO Estimate Admin Estimate Amount Growth Adjust Amount $ Diff Hits: 6
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 the tax credit is accomplishing its legislative intent. For this credit, the IFO reviewed documentation provided by the Department of Revenue (DOR), DCED and the authorizing legislation for the RJITC. For this review, the IFO established the goals and purpose of Hits: 5
RTR-May 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through May 2012 May Percent May Percent 2012 2011 2011 2011 May Percent 2012 9,375.8 3.6% 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 28,112.5 3.0% Total Tax Revenue 1,841.1 7.3% 9,114.2 3.3% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 27,258 Hits: 5
RTR-Mar 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through March 2012 March Percent March Percent 2011 2011 2011 2011 March Percent 2012 7,935.2 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 27,872.3 3.5% Total Tax Revenue 4,011.7 1.9% 7,849.8 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 3.4% 27,043 Hits: 5
RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through June 2012 June Percent June Percent 2012 2011 2011 2011 June Percent 2012 8,097.7 -2.3% 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 27,678.0 0.7% Total Tax Revenue 2,663.5 -4.0% 7,766.0 1.4% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 27,148 Hits: 5
RTR-Feb 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through February 2012 February Percent February Percent 2011 2011 2011 2011 February Percent 2012 6,144.5 1.3% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 27,788.7 3.5% Total Tax Revenue 1,687.7 12.0% 6,093.4 1.9% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 3.4% 26,967 Hits: 5
RTR-Apr 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) Through April 2012 April Percent April Percent 2012 2011 2011 2011 April Percent 2012 9,186.2 4.3% 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 27,994.3 2.5% Total Tax Revenue 3,261.4 2.8% 8,960.8 4.0% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 27,133 Hits: 5
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office May 26, 2021 Key Issues and Questions Economy overperforms due to massive federal in inflation transitory? ▪ Is there a stock market and/or housing market bubble? Many unusual factors impact FY 2021-22 revenues ▪ Removal of federal monies | behavioral impacts | tax shifting May 26, 2021 1 Key Assumptions No new COVID restrictions moving forward Hits: 5
Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf Revenue Trends Report (dollar amounts in millions) January 2012 January Percent January Percent 2011 2011 2011 2011 January Percent 2012 Change 6,160.6 0.6% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 27,615.8 3.0% Total Tax Revenue 2,150.4 -3.2% 6,118.7 1.2% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 3.4% 26,786 Hits: 5
RB_2023_06_Jackpot_Lottery.pdf 1 The state retains 50% of Mega Millions and Powerball ticket sales, which translates into roughly $279 million in Lottery revenue for this fiscal year. It is unclear whether these games can maintain their strong gains, or if this year’s lower than advertised actual). Higher interest rates increase advertised jackpots, which promote more play that enhances jackpot pools and state revenue from the games. With elevated interest rates expected into FY 2023-24, unusually large, advertised jackpots could continue in the Hits: 5
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf Natural gas royalties are an important source of income for many Pennsylvania landowners. Firms pay royalties based on the revenues received from the sale of natural gas extracted from wells located on a landowner’s property. Pennsylvania law mandates a percent of the market value of the sale. 1 Some contracts allow firms to deduct post-production costs from gross revenues prior to the application of the relevant royalty rate. Post-production costs reflect various expenses incurred to bring the gas Hits: 5
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf IFO Director January 19, 2022 IFO Background and Major Releases IFO starts in 2011. Primary duty to provide General Fund revenue estimates ▪ Every January, May and June ▪ Economic trends and forecasts Each November: Five-Year Outlook ▪ General Fund revenues, expenditures, economics and demographics ▪ Long-term structural surplus or deficit for the state Other Duties and Releases ▪ Monthly releases: revenue Hits: 5
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf time jobs. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by IFO. FY 18-19 Revenues Strong Thru October November 19, 2018 9 Gain Thru October Notes Corporate Net Income +$96 profit shifting, older tax years 17 20 0 0 0 Sports Wagering 0 55 28 29 30 All Other 2 6 3 3 4 Total Revenue 145 182 51 49 51 iLottery Profits 10 31 37 45 43 Note: millions of dollars. Forecasts by IFO. A Hits: 5
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf economic trends: labor market, inflation and demographics ▪ II. Industry trends and state comparisons: jobs, wages and taxes ▪ III. State budget: revenue proposals and key issues April 19, 2023 1 “Why the Recession is Always Six Months Away” April 19, 2023 2 5.2% 16 0.53% 0.50% Total 100.0% 21 10.08% 9.80% Source: State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50-State Comparison, IFO (Feb 2023). U.S. Avg Tax Rate is unweighted so that all states have equal Hits: 5
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Kathleen Hall, Modeling and Development Analyst II Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: khall@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Primary Services Provided Pennsylvania State Police Overview | Page 4 Gaming Enforcement expenditures for FY 2019-20 were impacted by a revenue shortfall caused by casino closures related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The shortfall resulted in new General Fund ($4.1 Hits: 5
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf December Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director December 9, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data consumer spending patterns revert?  Do individuals rejoin the labor force, or get by with less? December 9, 2020 6 Revenues Are Up First 5 Months of Fiscal Year December 9, 2020 7 Mitigation Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul Hits: 5
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf August Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director August 25, 2021 Latest Quarterly PA Economic Data August 25 UC is extra federal Unemployment Compensation. CTC is advance child tax credit payments. Data shifts $160 million of delayed tax revenues from June-July 2020 to April-May 2020. EIP #3 $15.1b regular seasonal dip EIP #2 $6.1b 2021 Hits: 5
NGIFE-2015.pdf were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. To date, the impact fee has generated approximately $856 million in revenues, which were distributed to local governments and state agencies to offset the impact from unconventional natural gas extraction. The proceeds qualify for exemption from the impact fee if their production does not exceed the stripper well Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Revenues $202,472 $225,752 $223,500 $185,500 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Hits: 5
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Revenue_Analyst.pdf Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office: Revenue Analyst Office Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections along with impartial and objective analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Hits: 5
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf Economic and Revenue Update Harrisburg Trade Association Executives May 15, 2019 U.S. and PA Economic Trends May 15, 2019 1 2015 2016 rate for first quarter. Professional Services include the Management and Administrative sectors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. FYTD Revenues Through April May 15, 2019 4 April 2018 April 2019 Dollar Change Growth Rate Total General Fund $29,027 $29 Hits: 5
House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf those data in a report that summarizes outcomes and calculate the ratio of projected employer pension contributions to projected state revenues. August 19, 2021 1 State Pension System Funding Outlook August 19, 2021 2 SERS 1 PSERS FY Ending Empl. Rate yet available and will affect UAL and employer contribution rates once finalized. Pension Funding as Share of Total General Fund Revenues August 19, 2021 3 FY Ends SERS PSERS Total Annual Growth Share of Revenue 2016 $665 $1,719 $2,384 Hits: 5
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf deliberations without the healthy beginning balances that have characterized the last three fiscal years.” The report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. Projections are made on budgets have been balanced by surplus funds carried over from FY 2010-11. Current- year expenditures have exceeded current-year revenues, and the surplus funds have been consumed steadily. By the end of the current fiscal year, those funds will be Hits: 5
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf a benchmark for measuring the effects of proposed legislation. The baseline reflects the assumption that current laws governing spending and revenues generally remain unchanged, and it relies on CBO’s forecasts of key economic factors.​ CBO Provides Baseline Budget and Economic follow, growing deficits are projected to push federal debt higher still, to 185 percent in 2052. 10 Total Outlays and Revenues Outlays are projected to drop from recent highs, as pandemic-related spending wanes, and then trend upward, as they did Hits: 5
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 certificate once payment is received. Once the tax credit is issued to the recipient, PHFA will provide the Department of Revenue (DOR) with a copy of the tax credit certificate. Tax credit recipients, purchasers or assignees are required to file utilization Hits: 4
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 4
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues enactment of the OBMD, the stated intent of the authorizing legislation and documentation provided by the Department of Revenue. For this review, the IFO has established the purpose and goals of the OBMD as follows: Goals  Reduce the number of Hits: 4
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and reflect the utilization of tax credits (i.e., application against tax liability). Data on state spending, grants and loans racing industry through purse prizes, racehorse award programs and horsemen’s organizations. Final distributions are based on racing activity and revenues and are projected to total $203.5 million in the current fiscal year. • Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program payments ($99.9 Hits: 4
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf Consolidation  Independent nonpartisan agency. • Began operations in September 2011. • Analyze fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  2014 10 Property Tax Relief 16.Dec.2014 11 Consolidated SD vs. Total of Individual SDs, $ millions State Funding State Revenue Item Consolidated Individual Net Difference Basic Education Funding 151.1 156.5 -5.4 Special Education Funding 30.1 30 Hits: 4
RB_2024_05_Treasury.pdf and then surged to $11.2 billion in FY 2021-22 due to federal COVID relief funds and extraordinarily strong revenue growth. Even with the much higher balance, Treasury collections were muted due to the very low interest rates in effect million. Going forward, each $1 billion decline in the General Fund balance (at current rates) results in a $50 million revenue reduction while each 1 percentage point drop in interest rates (at current balances) results in a $150 million revenue reduction Hits: 4
RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdf 429,137 $208.1 $142.5 $350.6 Source: Property Tax/Rent Rebate Program 2021 Statistical Report, Pennsylvania Department of Revenue. Note: Rebate amounts include one-time bonus rebates for claim year 2021 authorized by Act 54 of 2022. Bonus rebates county. The higher rebate impact is apportioned to counties based on published 2021 claimant data from the PA Department of Revenue. The higher income cap impact is apportioned to counties based on Social Security beneficiary counts for 2021. Avg. County Owner Hits: 4
RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdf g., money market funds). (See the Pennsylvania Treasury website for more information.) Treasury earnings are posted monthly as General Fund revenue and those amounts have increased dramatically over the past 15 months. This research brief examines the cause of the historically and then surged to $11.2 billion in FY 2021-22 due to federal COVID relief funds and extraordinarily strong revenue growth. Even with the much higher balance, Treasury collections were muted due to the very low interest rates in effect Hits: 4
PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf March 13, 2020 Property Tax Update Pennsylvania School Boards Association March 13, 2020 School District Revenues: FY 2017-18 March 13, 2020 2 Source Amount Percent Property Tax $13,511 44.6% Earned Income $1,592 SNAP purchases)  Tax clothing: ~+920 million  Other: basic cable services, non-prescription drugs, amusements March 13, 2020 4 Revenue Growth and Volatility Comparison March 13, 2020 5 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% Hits: 4
PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf prepayment in unfunded liability from The Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education. Pension Funding as Share of Total General Fund Revenues July 13, 2021 2 FYE SERS PSERS Total Annual Growth Share of Revenue 2016 $665 $1,719 $2,384 -- 7.7% 2017 784 2,064 2,848 19.5% 9.0 2018 840 Hits: 4
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 3, 2023 Hits: 4
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mtaylor@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 provisions of the Pennsylvania Unemployment Compensation Law, collects taxes legally due from covered employers and employees, and remits all tax revenues to the Unemployment Compensation Trust Fund. Employer contri- butions (in the form of quarterly tax payments) are the primary funding Hits: 4
MidYear_PublicBriefing_Jan2018.pdf State Office Building, 400 Market St, Harrisburg The Independent Fiscal Office will release a mid-year update for General Fund revenues for FY 2017-18. The presentation will also include a discussion of the impact of federal tax law changes on the state economy and tax revenues and a preliminary revenue outlook for FY 2018-19. Mid-Year Revenue Update www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO PUBLIC Hits: 4
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_May_2023.pdf IFO Public Presentation The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2022-23 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. The presentation will cover recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The Hits: 4
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_2024.pdf IFO Public Presentation The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2023-24 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2024-25. The presentation will cover recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The Hits: 4
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2022.pdf IFO Public Presentation The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2021-22 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. The presentation will review and discuss recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund Hits: 4
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdf IFO PUBLIC BRIEFING Updated Revenue Estimates Date: Wednesday, May 26 Time: 1:00 PM R SVP Here Please register at the link above to receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. The briefing is open to the Hits: 4
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf 25, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2024-25 and includes a historical comparison of General Fund program expenditures and revenue trends. For the period FY 2014-15 through FY 2019-20, the data reveal that expenditures expanded at a rate Hits: 4
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf for additional information on states that have legalized recreational marijuana and associated costs arising from legalization that are external to revenue estimates. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) reviewed various studies from four states that were early enactors of recreational marijuana legalization. These states include Colorado (recreational use legalized in 2012), Washington (2012), Oregon (2014) and California (2016). While state revenue collections from recreational marijuana are well-documented, states are generally unable to estimate the costs of externalities associated with legalized Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf revised spending levels enacted with the FY 2015-16 budget will alter the projections.” The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through FY 2020-21. Based on assumptions used in through FY 2020-21, the rate of increase for pension contributions moderates and the imbalance begins to stabilize as net revenues and expenditures each increase at an average rate of 3.7 percent per annum.  Pennsylvania’s economic growth over Hits: 4
Economic_Summit_Presentation_Sept_2023.pdf Economic Summit: PA General Assembly York County Delegation Matthew Knittel, Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania Economic and Revenue Trends Annual Growth, Annual Change or Average Rate Economics (Calendar Year) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1 Real GDP 1 2% 10.9% -12.9% -20.0% 8 Home Values 5.0% 7.4% 14.0% 11.1% 4.0% Revenue Source (Fiscal Year) 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 1 Sales and Use 6.9% -0 Hits: 4
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf Economic and Revenue Update Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office August 19, 2020 Four Things to Note Wage and Salary data are stronger than shifts to home remodeling, furniture/appliances, groceries, cars  But what impact from loss of $600 weekly FPUC payment? July revenues exceed expectation  Car sales tax breaks record | projected $2 billion shift largely captured August 19, 2020 1 Latest Real- Hits: 4
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Hits: 4
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Mid-Year Update FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2022 Today’s Presentation Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Corporate net income, sales tax, personal income, inheritance Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force is ~4% about $35 billion likely not stimulus most is spent a direct increase in money supply FY 2021-22 Revenues Through January January 31, 2022 14 Dollar Amount Growth Rate Adjusted Growth Notes on Adjustments General Fund $26,126 23 Hits: 4
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months fee structure, a typical UGW producing for 15 consecutive years will return roughly $190 to $355 million in impact fee revenue, with approximately 50 percent of the funds received during the first five years of production. 5 For FY 2012-13 Hits: 4
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months that issue, one must know how an exten- sion of the payroll tax cut would have affected spend- ing, tax revenues and total output. For 2009, Pennsylva- nia residents paid $28.2 billion in OASDI taxes. 3 If ad- justed by Hits: 4
2002_dbdc_report.pdf insurance companies and mutual fund companies with investment options meeting the requirements of a tax-qualified plan under the Internal Revenue Code. The additional alternative retirement plans are selected and approved by the State System of Higher Education (SSHE) through a Thus, fiduciaries must seek out the course of conduct that will best serve the interests of the beneficiary. The Internal Revenue Code also imposes a similar duty, known as the “exclusive benefit rule,” upon the Systems’ trustees. In fact, the exclusive Hits: 4
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 to November 1 annually and credits are approved on a first- come, first-served basis. DCED notifies the Department of Revenue (DOR) of credit eligibility, and DOR conducts a compliance check, after which DCED may notify the business firm that it Hits: 3
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the annual loss of tax revenue associated with the elimination of property taxes – imposed by all political subdivisions - on residents that are age 65 or older requested the following details/parameters:  The number of households impacted by the proposal.  The annual loss of tax revenue associated with (1) school district property taxes and (2) county and municipal property taxes.  The definition of household income Hits: 3
RB 2019 RACP.pdf that: o have a regional or multi-jurisdictional impact; o generate substantial increases or maintain current levels of employment, tax revenues or other measures of economic activity; o do not obtain primary funding through other state programs; and o have cultural the legislative caucuses and the Governor’s Office. Projects are primarily funded by state-issued bonds backed by sales tax revenue. In the listed FY 2019-20 enacted appropriations on the Illinois Governor’s Office of Management and Budget’s website Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf department ▪ Gasoline consumption is down by roughly 10% ▪ The department scaled back construction lettings in CY 2020 due to reduced revenues ▪ Public transit ridership and revenues down significantly Rapid Bridge Replacement (RBR) program reduced state-owned bridges in poor condition ▪ Beginning in 2015, the RBR P3 Hits: 3
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Staff Contact: mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Hits: 3
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Measures 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Descriptive # Pennsylvania PSAPs 1 -- 64 64 64 63 60 Total 911 revenue collected ($ millions) $191 $240 $316 $317 $316 $317 Total 911 expenditures ($ millions) 2 $294 $335 $330 $362 $352 $360 Output # 911 calls Hits: 3
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf Economic and Revenue Update PACP Chamber Day 2021 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office June 17, 2021 Three Issues Dominate Economic and Budget jobs be available? ▪ IFO forecast: 2022 output exceeds 2019 w/ ~250,000 less workers What are implications for General Fund revenues? ▪ Should we expect a deceleration or possible contraction? June 17, 2021 1 Federal Monies to Pennsylvania June 17, 2021 2 Hits: 3
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf Emergency and Economic effects of pandemic • Premium pay to essential employees or grants to their employers • Government services affected by revenue reduction resulting in COVID-19 • Investments in water, sewer and broadband ○Ineligible uses: • Towards pensions or to offset revenue resulting in a tax cuts • Rainy day funds NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES CSFRF State & Local Aid Provides $195.3 Hits: 3
MER-2014-07.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 3
Kling_Presentation.pdf economic outlook, the agency posted files containing the following information:  Historical data  Spending projections by budget account  Revenue projections by category, along with tax parameters and effective marginal tax rates  10-year projections of economic output, prices are some examples:  A report on CBO’s economic forecasting record since 1976  A report on CBO’s revenue forecasting record since 1982  A report on how CBO’s projections of subsidies under the Affordable Care Act compared Hits: 3
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf development means smart taxes, smart spending. What Should We Ask From Our Tax System?  Short-term adequacy: raise enough revenue to pay for services in FY20.  Long-term sustainability: raise enough $ for 10, 20 yrs down the road.  profits at the state level.  6 of 13 PA-based companies in the sample paid < 3%.  Eight-year revenue loss from this gap: $126 billion The Future of State Corporate Income Taxes Post-TCJA: ???  New territorial tax system Hits: 3
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdf IFO Public Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the Hits: 3
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf proceeds from the sale of allowances would be $781 million. That figure is 3.8x the original amount of allowance revenues. • Conventional modeling assumes those costs would be pushed forward to final consumers. Based on the latest EIA data, one-third of net proceeds are invested in energy efficiency and 32% in renewable energy. Model assumes that every dollar of RGGI revenue invested would leverage $2.52 of private investment. (Source: Pennsylvania RGGI Modeling Report, September 2020.) Model also assumes a 3 Hits: 3
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf dramatic transformation.  Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade.  Subtle impacts on economic growth and tax revenues.  Difficult to quantify. Must view long-term trends.  Key factor: Baby Boomers and their characteristics:  Sheer numbers businesses pass tax to consumers. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey), PA Department of Education, PA Department of Revenue, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Consumer Expenditure Survey) and Internal Revenue Service. All computations by the IFO. U.S Hits: 3
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf Dear Representative Ryan: On April 12, 2022, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provided updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. This letter responds to your April 20 request for additional information related to those estimates 1 effective date for the proposed sales and use tax (SUT) changes would yield roughly 70% of the full-year revenue estimate. For fiscal year (FY) 2022-23, the full-year SUT estimate is $5.2 billion ($4.3 billion for Hits: 3
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROI 2022 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference October 24, 2022 Background: Independent Fiscal Office Created by Act 120 of 2010 and began others have a governing board composed of legislators ▪ Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum Hits: 3
DotPlotData.xlsx 2021. Includes all PSSA, Keystone and PASA completed exams by full-academic-year students. F. PDE Website, AFR Data: Detailed, Revenues, Local Revenue:2010-11 to 2019-20. https://www.education.pa.gov/Teachers%20-%20Administrators/School%20Finances/Finances/AFR%20Data%20Summary/Pages/AFR-Data-Detailed-.aspx Hits: 3
Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Independent Fiscal Office to Release Revenue Projections and Conduct Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release updated revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2015- 16 and 2016-17 on Tuesday, May 3, 2016. The office will hold a 1 Hits: 3
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Hits: 3
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Hits: 3
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Hits: 3
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ PA Department of Revenue. 5/ PA Department of Revenue. 6/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 7/ Energy Information Administration. 8/ U.S. Department of Hits: 3
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf State Police * Probation and Parole Board Public School Building Authority Public School Employees' Retirement System Public Utility Commission Public Welfare Revenue Securities Commission State State Employees' Retirement System State Ethics Commission State System of Higher Education ** State Tax Equalization Board Thaddeus PA Public Television Network Commission Probation and Parole, Board of Public School Employes' Retirement System Public Utility Commission Public Welfare Revenue Securities Commission State State Employes' Retirement System State Police State Public School Building Authority State System of Higher Education State Hits: 3
Pensions Act of 2008 ("HEART Act"); 2) the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act of 1994 ("USERRA"); and 3) Internal Revenue Code Section 414(u) [IRC §414(u)]. Act 2013 - 33 (Senate Bill Number 798, Printer's Number 818). Signed into Act of 2008 (HEART Act); 2) the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act of 1994 (USERRA); and 3) Internal Revenue Code Section 414(u) [IRC §414(u)]. Additionally, the bill would require SERS to revert back to the method used Hits: 3
WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf Pennsylvania Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends Jesse Bushman – Revenue Analyst July 14, 2020 1 Center for Energy Policy & Management Washington & Jefferson College Impact Fee July 14, 2020 2 Per fuels taxes down in FY19-20, projected to decline further in FY20-21.  IFO to release report estimating local revenue losses (county, municipal, school). Recent Trends – Decline and Deceleration July 14, 2020 10 2018 2019 2020 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Hits: 2
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf in latest year ▪ Nearly all credits sold | ~15% leakage to sales discounts and transfer fees Generators receive other non-electricity revenues in addition to tax credit ▪ AEPS credits: ~$11.0 million in 2020 prior to Tier II increase from 8.2% Report assumes that ~20% of coal refuse burned incentivized by tax credit ▪ Highly dependent on wholesale electricity price and other revenues ▪ ~140 direct jobs generated per million ton coal refuse burned ▪ Remaining piles further removed from generators (higher transport costs) ▪ Nearly Hits: 2
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf 600 direct FTEs | 3,600 total FTEs (assumes fully developed supply chain) ▪ Wage income of $282m = $9m in additional PIT revenue ▪ Unclear if tax credit deciding factor in location decision | other incentives used Recommendations ▪ Credit should be subject to annual cap | limits impact on state revenues ▪ Sale of credits: relax requirements | potential for significant leakage (e.g., 5%- 10% leakage = $4m-$8m per year) ▪ DCED should Hits: 2
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Robyn Toth, Fiscal Analyst/Communications Mitchell Young, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rtoth@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 premiums, gross receipts, and mutual thrift institutions tax liabilities. Once the tax credit certificate is submitted to the Department of Revenue (DOR), the tax credit may be carried forward three years. The tax credit is non-refundable and may not be Hits: 2
Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf racing industry through purse prizes, racehorse award programs and horsemen’s organizations. Final distributions are based on racing activity and revenues and are projected to total $221.4 million in the current fiscal year. • Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program payments ($166.8 The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and reflect the utilization of tax credits (i.e., application against tax liability). Data on state spending, grants and loans Hits: 2
Supplemental_Table.pdf Revenue Estimate Comparison Detail IFO Mid-Year Executive Budget IFO less Exec Budget 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 Total General Fund $34,780 $33,914 $34,752 $33,972 $28 -$58 Total Tax Revenue 31,922 33,180 32,158 33,361 -237 -181 Corporate Net Income 2,991 3,318 3,010 3 Hits: 2
SR2017-06.pdf county assessment offices. Other data from the State Tax Equalization Board, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Philadelphia Department of Revenue and the Pennsylvania Department of Education. Calculations by the IFO. 1 The assessed value share is weighted by 2015 county data from the State Tax Equalization Board. Philadelphia data were adjusted based on information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. C Partial data supplied by the county assessment office. Missing information estimated by the IFO using data from the State Hits: 2
SR2017-05.pdf FY 2015-16 Act 1 Property Tax Reduction Allocations. Philadelphia data adjusted based on information from the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, State Tax Equalization Board, the Philadelphia Department of Revenue and county assessment offices. Computations by the IFO. Note: dollar amounts in thousands, except the average per homestead is in Hits: 2
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf standard deductions and exemptions applicable to taxpayers under age 60, filing single with no dependents. Sources: Various state departments of revenue and taxation. State Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Maryland 67.7% 68.3% 0 to 12 and ages 0 to 3, respectively.” 6 In April, the IFO will release an analysis of the revenue proposals included in the 2023-24 Governor’s Executive Budget. Responses to questions or requests related to those proposals will Hits: 2
Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf requests the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide additional data on the minimum wage analysis included in the Analysis of Revenue Proposals published by the office in March 2019. Your letter requests additional detail regarding the net wage gains displayed in 554 $2,744 Note: Wage ranges reflect hourly wage prior to increase to $12.00 per hour. Source: Analysis of Revenue Proposals, Table 2.6, Independent Fiscal Office (March 2019). Author: Charlene Raves CreationDate: 2019-10-10 15:47:44 Creator Hits: 2
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/Response-Letter-05-10-2019.pdf. 3 See the Department of Revenue’s 2017 Property Tax/Rent Rebate Program Statistical Report: https://www.revenue.pa.gov/GeneralTaxInformation/News%20and%20Statistics/ReportsStats/PTRR/GenAssembly/ Documents/2019_ptrr_report.pdf. Author: Charlene Raves Creator: Microsoft® Word 2016 CreationDate: 2019-08- Hits: 2
RB_2024_10_Act_1.pdf ranged from $525 to $535 million per annum. The recent increase in allocations coincided with strong growth in new tax revenues from interactive gaming (authorized by Act 42 of 2017), while tax collections from in-person slots play were largely flat 8% 9% -- Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board. Act 1 Property Tax Allocations and Slots Gaming Tax Revenue Note: Millions of dollars. Growth rates are year-over-year. FY 19-20 and FY 20-21 impacted by partial Hits: 2
RB_2024_07_CNIT.pdf figures in the table are static estimates, and do not reflect any dynamic response that could partially offset the negative revenue impact. Dynamic effects refer to the increase in private economic activity that should occur in response to lower tax burdens. A positive revenue offset should occur because (1) the lower tax rates (statutory and effective) encourage firms to locate or expand operations within Hits: 2
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf is less robust than current published data suggest, and that is supported by real-time data on withheld income tax revenues. For the last three quarters, YOY withholding tax revenue growth is as follows: 4.4% (2023 Q3), 4.2% (2023 Q4) and 4.0% (2024 Q1, estimate based on Hits: 2
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf computed UAL, and 4.6% of SERS’ UAL (2019 valuation). To finance the payment, Penn State issued 30-year taxable revenue bonds at a true interest cost rate of 2.7% (i.e., average effective interest rate). Over the 30-year and approximately 3.6% of the overall system UAL (2019 valuation). To finance the payment, PASSHE issued 20-year taxable revenue bonds at a true interest cost rate of 2.6%. Table 3 shows the pattern of the nearly $450 million Hits: 2
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and reflect the utilization of tax credits (i.e., the application against tax liability). Data on state spending, grants and PA Race Horse Development Trust Fund disbursements exclude transfers to Agriculture and Farm Products Show Fund. Source: PA Department of Revenue, PA Department of Community and Economic Development, Commonwealth Executive Budget FY 2021-22, Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports and state accounting Hits: 2
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and reflect the utilization of tax credits (i.e., the application against tax liability). Data on state spending, grants and and Farm Products Show Fund. * FY 2019-20 values not yet released for BFTDA- Venture Investment. Source: PA Department of Revenue, PA Department of Community and Economic Development, Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports and state accounting system. Tax Credits and Economic Development Hits: 2
Public_Data-Motor_License_Fund.xlsx Receipts Aeronautics Fines Vehicle Code Fines Fines, Penalties & Interest Misc.-Treasury Other Misc. Misc.-Trans-portation Misc.-General Services Misc.-Revenue Veh. Code Fines Clearing PA Turnpike Commission Justice Collections 1997-98 1,812.7 1,022.4 703.1 87 Receipts Aeronautics Fines Vehicle Code Fines Fines, Penalties & Interest Misc.-Treasury Other Misc. Misc.-Trans-portation Misc.-General Services Misc.-Revenue Veh. Code Fines Clearing PA Turnpike Commission Justice Collections 1997 Q3 564.2 383.4 157.2 23.5 | 143 Hits: 2
Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf Recent Revenue and Economic Trends IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus - April 17, 2019 Growth Rate General Fund Tax Revenues 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Non-Motor Sales (base, see note Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf Recent Revenue and Economic Trends Growth Rate or Change General Fund Tax Revenues (YOY) 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Non-Motor SUT (base)1.8% 2.4% 2.9% 3 Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf credit may have occurred regardless Gross ROI = 1.0 implies credit “breaks even” or is self-financed ▪ New state tax revenues attributable to tax credit = tax credit paid ▪ Only count new economic activity induced by the credit ▪ Credit must be the decisive factor in the location decision ▪ Excludes other benefits: positive spillovers, enhanced property tax revenues September 28, 2021 4 Keystone Special Development Zones (KSDZ) Summary of findings based on input from participants ▪ Tax credit is Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf PBB Agency Highlights Department of Revenue (DOR) Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 10, 2023 Department of Revenue (DOR) January 10, 2023 1 DOR Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 21-22) January 10, 2023 2 Activities Amount Share Hits: 2
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Michaela Miller, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: lmclaughlin@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 2
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues 191.8 191.8 # Certs. issued for medical marijuana ID (000s) -- -- -- 25.7 125.6 151.4 Tax revenue generated ($ millions) 8 -- -- -- $0.1 $3.5 $12.0 # Operational facilities 9 Growers/Processors -- -- -- 12 18 25 Dispensaries -- -- -- 27 52 100 Statewide Hits: 2
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf DRAFT About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues by Chapter 105 permit fees. These fees include dam fees and water ob- struction and encroachment fees. Additional revenue for this activity includes submerged lands license charges and limited power annual fees. Resources 14-15 Actual 15-16 Actual 16-17 Hits: 2
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues each account. The amount of fund balance that is used each year to offset the shortfall in fee revenues.  Average training costs per student. The change in training costs associated with changes in the service model.  Cumulative amount owed Hits: 2
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx amount/share of spending incentivized ▪ Determine type of spending and industries affected ▪ Use IMPLAN to estimate multiplier effects, jobs, tax revenues Economic metrics for MTBI, RDTC and KIZ ▪ Gross ROI and net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ GDP | labor earnings 000 credit for qualified activities within zone ▪ Must be located in a KIZ (28 zones) ▪ Credit = 50% increase in gross revenues from prior year ▪ KIZ firms partner with higher education and local businesses ▪ Credit is oversubscribed | 84% proration factor | 80-90% Hits: 2
Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will Hits: 2
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will Hits: 2
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will Hits: 2
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf the nation as a whole and home sales increased for the sixth consecutive year. These factors produced stronger-than-anticipated revenues for wage, sales, business, property, and real estate transfer taxes. The report also discusses recent social and demographic trends for forward based on the report. IRS Releases Preliminary U.S. Income Tax Data for 2016 For most states, income tax revenues came in far below projections for FY 2016-17, leading to large budget defi- cits. New federal income tax data Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdf Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 13. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force. The U6 rate 3-month average personal income tax (PIT) withholding collections. Adjusts for transfers and payment date shifts. Source: PA Department of Revenue. CreationDate: 2023-10-23 18:03:28 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-10-23 18:05:28 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 13. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force. The U6 rate 3-month average personal income tax (PIT) withholding collections. Adjusts for transfers and payment date shifts. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 4. Annual change in average price level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdf Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 13. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force. The U6 rate 3-month average personal income tax (PIT) withholding collections. Adjusts for transfers and payment date shifts. Source: PA Department of Revenue. CreationDate: 2023-08-15 14:30:36 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2023-08-15 14:30 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf business travel will also likely impact leisure travel through increased fares and fewer flights, as business travel represents a large revenue source for airlines. PA Renters Will Owe an Estimated $224 Million in Rent by December 31 The federal eviction moratorium A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association finds that rental property owners lost approximately $9.2 billion in 2020 Q3 revenue from renter households that missed, delayed or made a reduced payment. Current negotiations in Congress include the extension of the Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdf Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 13. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force. The U6 rate 3-month average personal income tax (PIT) withholding collections. Adjusts for transfers and payment date shifts. Source: PA Department of Revenue. CreationDate: 2023-09-14 12:41:06 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2023-09-14 12:41 Hits: 2
Migration_RB_06_2024.pdf In June, the Internal Revenue Service released the latest state-level migration data. The dataset uses income tax returns to track the migration of filers tax years 2020 and 2021, when income was earned or received. See: SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data 2021–2022 | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov). Southern Migration Continued During COVID Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2024 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Hits: 2
MER-2015-06.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2015-04.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2015-03.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2015-02.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2015-01.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2014-12.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2014-11.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2014-10.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2014-09.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2014-08.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
MER-2014-06.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Hits: 2
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf late March or early April. That report will also include an analysis of the combined reporting and personal income tax revenue proposals. Thank you. I would be happy to answer any questions that you may have. Independent Fiscal Office 3 February by $12 Minimum Wage 119 105 -14 Note: Excludes self-employed. Data will be updated in IFO's Analysis of Revenue Proposals in Spring 2021. Source: Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), 2019. PA Worker Distribution by Hourly Wage Rates Notes for CY Hits: 2
IFO_Public_Briefing_May_2018_19.pdf PM Location: Room 105, Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg The Independent Fiscal Office will release updated revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2017-18 and 2018-19. The session is open to the public. The report will be posted to the office website at the start of the briefing. Updated Revenue Estimates www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO Public Briefing CreationDate: 2018-04-24 13:11:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DACT5o1_Ye4 Hits: 2
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf 21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 Beginning Balance -$2,715 $0 -- -- -- -- -- Current Year Revenues 40,392 44,173 $42,875 $41,847 $43,144 $44,587 $46,107 Less Refunds -1,262 -1,325 -1,300 -1,325 -1,350 -1,375 -1,400 Net Revenues 39,130 42,848 41,575 40,522 41,794 43,212 44,707 State Expenditures -34,013 -38,589 Hits: 2
IFO_PASBO_Oct_2024.pdf 73% in 2014, 64% in 2018, 46% in June 2024. Base SAWW ECI Impact of COVID Money on School District Revenues GG 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 AAGR Property taxes $14,481 $14,791 197 $2,588 $3,122 $3,100 12.6% Notes: Millions of dollars. AAGR is average annual growth rate. Includes revenue for all 500 school districts. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Data for FY 23-24 are preliminary estimates based on Hits: 2
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Fiscal_Analyst.pdf Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office: Fiscal Analyst Office Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections along with objective analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General Assembly in to perform their duties.” Position Summary A Fiscal Analyst I is responsible for the analysis, monitoring and tracking of assigned revenue and budget area(s). Analysts will (1) provide support (if assigned) for special reports and projects undertaken by the office Hits: 2
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Deputy_Director.pdf Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office: Deputy Director Office Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections along with impartial and objective analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the General such as: o Interpretation and analysis of financial data, accounts and system processes o Quantitative modeling techniques to develop state revenue and budget projections o Evaluation of public policy programs to improve the effective and efficient use of taxpayer dollars through Hits: 2
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf full-time, professional work in fiscal analysis. An IFO analyst: 1) compiles, organizes, analyzes and forecasts data relating to state revenues, expenditures and the economy; 2) applies economic and statistical principles, practices and techniques to design and complete research on fiscal and economic issues; 3) prepares regular reports on the economy and state revenues; and 4) drafts text and prepares data tables and graphs for presentations and published analyses. Applicants will be assessed based Hits: 2
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf Market • Very high rate of recent jobs creation • Depletion of excess savings, delayed interest rate impact • Real-time: withholding tax revenues decelerate • YTD New UI Claims up +14% YOY, but remain relatively low Slide 12 Feb 2024 Economic Summit 0 50 22-23 23-24 $6.2 billion +124% actual w/ rate cut US non-financial domestic corp profits +80% CNIT revenues Follow us on X (@ind_fisc_office) or sign up on the IFO website to receive notifications about new releases. Questions? February Hits: 2
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf P.L. 148, No. 25 (amending the Taxpayer Relief Act). The act eliminated exceptions for school construction, maintenance of certain revenues, maintenance of actual instructional expense, grandfathered healthcare benefits, emergencies or disasters declared by the Governor, implementation of a court of administrative order and immediate threats of serious physical harm. The data show that maintenance of local and select revenues comprise the great majority of exceptions eliminated by Act 25. February 11, 2022 Page 2 2012-13 to FY 2020- Hits: 2
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf cost notes). The 3.6% proxy for budget growth is based on the average annual growth in projected General Fund revenue from FY 2017-18 to 2021-22 in the IFO’s November 2016 five-year economic and budget outlook. Table growth as increases in costs above that rate decrease available dollars for other programs in future years, excluding any new revenue. The actuarial cost notes prepared by the System actuaries use the expected return, which is consistent with the development of Hits: 2
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf mortality of the recipients. In addition to shifting costs to the future, pay-as-you-go financing increases the total revenues required to finance the postretirement adjustment due to the lost potential for income on invested contributions. Numerous funding problems were more consistent with the matching principle of accounting that requires that the costs of a period be matched with the revenues of that period. In the case of public employee pension benefits, the matching principle assures inter-generational equity by providing Hits: 2
Links Employment • Quarterly Personal Income • Gross State Product • Business Outlook, Philadelphia Fed State Government • Department of Labor and Industry • Department of Revenue • General Assembly • Office of the Budget • Office of the Governor State Budget News • Pew Center for States • Rockefeller Institute of State Budget Officers Federal Government • Board of Governors, Federal Reserve • Congressional Budget Office • Department of Treasury • Government Accountability Office • Internal Revenue Service • Joint Committee on Taxation • Office of Management and Budget • FRED - St. Louis Fed IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Oct 02) Surge in iGaming slots revenue drives Act 1 property tax relief to $800 million, an increase of $132 million (20%) from prior year. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/yxkXFf4Tt5 • (Oct 01) The Commonwealth collected $4.16 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $105 million compared to September 2023. Fiscal year 2024-25 revenues total $10.09 billion, an increase of $248 million from the prior year. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/FapviDs3Fc • (Sep 25) For FY 23-24, PA gaming taxes generated $2.4 billion, and most was paid by middle income residents. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/2MYUoxAIbx Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale Hits: 2
Data IFO - Data IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Data Historical General Fund Revenues Historical Motor License Fund Revenues IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Oct 02) Surge in iGaming slots revenue drives Act 1 property tax relief to $800 million, an increase of $132 million (20%) from prior year. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/yxkXFf4Tt5 • (Oct 01) The Commonwealth collected $4.16 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $105 million compared to September 2023. Fiscal year 2024-25 revenues total $10.09 billion, an increase of $248 million from the prior year. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/FapviDs3Fc • (Sep 25) For FY 23-24, PA gaming taxes generated $2.4 billion, and most was paid by middle income residents. See: ifo.state.pa.us/Resources/Docu… pic.x.com/2MYUoxAIbx Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0 msapplication-TileColor: #ffffff msapplication-config: /Resources/images/favicons Hits: 2
Senate_Maj_Policy_Comm_April_13_2021.pdf Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. April 13, 2021 Leisure-Hospitality Small Business Revenues Down 55% April 13, 2021 4 tracktherecovery.org Consumer Spending on Restaurant-Hotels Continues to Lag April 13, 2021 5 Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf an increase in the sales and use tax rate of slightly more than 0.5 percentage points would provide sufficient revenues to fund the proposed rebates. If you have any further questions regarding this analysis, please do not hesitate to contact Hits: 1
Response-Letter-05-13-2019.pdf Allegheny county would be 8.0% or 9.0%. Estimates assume that all transfers from SUT are adjusted to a revenue neutral rate, i.e., special funds do not receive a windfall from the increased tax rate. Options to Fund School Hits: 1
RB_2024_09_County_Income_Patterns.pdf two data sources for the county-level income metric: the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The base for county income is BEA personal income for calendar years 2019 and 2022. That income measure Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf dependent) or $2,100 (two or more dependents) against personal income tax. For FY 2024-25, the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue estimates that 218,800 filed tax returns will claim $125 million of tax credits, an average of $571 per return Hits: 1
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdf In April, the Internal Revenue Service released the latest state-level migration data. The dataset uses income tax returns to track the migration of filers Hits: 1
RB_2023_03_Rainy_Day_Fund.pdf their use, General Fund balances are carried forward from prior fiscal years and may be combined with current General Fund revenues to support various expenditures. For Rainy Day funds only (first table), Pennsylvania had a balance of $5.0 billion, 11 Hits: 1
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf some combination thereof. Centers not currently filled to DHS-monitored maximum staffing ratios could also enroll more children to increase revenue. The table on the next page displays the distribution of the state’s ARPA funds to child care centers by Hits: 1
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf In May, the Internal Revenue Service released the latest state-level migration data. The dataset uses income tax returns to track the migration of filers Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf data through 2021 Q2 published by the BEA. Those data are extended based on the YOY growth of withholding tax revenues, which are typically an accurate predictor of wage growth. Withholding data for 2021 Q3 suggest YOY wage growth of 10 Hits: 1
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf and rental income is 51 percent. See “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011-2013,” Internal Revenue Service (September 2019). 3 The IRS state tax data include nine income groups for taxpayers that reported positive Adjusted Gross Hits: 1
RB-2015-04.pdf Ðice issues this research brief to ful Ðill its statutory obligation to provide an economic analysis of all economic and revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget. Table 1 provides a comparison of minimum wage rates for Pennsylvania and adjacent states Hits: 1
Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf staff on the Commonwealth’s structural imbalance and the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the expenditures and revenues over the next five years. Guest Presenter: Daniel White, Senior Economist Moody’s Analytics Presentation on two topics that influence Hits: 1
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf 1.5 0.1 -0.1 0.1 Note: Includes non-taxable social security, interest and pension income. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Share of Total Income on Federal Tax Return By Income Type and Age Cohort Large Job Shift to Service Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf each activity.  Performance information is one of many factors that play a role in state budget decisions (e.g., revenue availability, court decisions, federal funding impacts, formula requirements, constituent pressures). 15 October 15, 2018 16 October 15, 2018 Presentation to Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf  Modeled after the Congressional Budget Office.  Separate from Executive and Legislative branches. Various mandatory duties.  General Fund revenue estimates.  Coordinate pension analysis. Analyze wage contracts.  Develop Performance-Based Budget plans for agencies. Things the office does Hits: 1
platt ppt.pdf bea.gov Recent Trends in Personal Income, Earnings and Wages in Pennsylvania Joel D. Platt Associate Director for Regional Economics Revenue Forecasting Conference Independent Fiscal Office for Pennsylvania January 18, 2012 www.bea.gov BEA’s Mission To promote a better Hits: 1
PBB_TaxCredits_Schedule_2022_Update.pdf Education Human Services – Part 3 Aging PA Historical & Museum Commission Agriculture Labor and Industry 5 Drug and Alcohol Programs Insurance Revenue Executive Offices Environmental Hearing Board Conservation and Natural Resources Year Tax Credits 1 Film Production New Jobs Historic Preservation Incentive Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf Dog Law Enforcement workload has grown significantly in recent years ▪ Kennel inspections up 16% from 2016 to 2020, license fee revenues down 15% in same period ▪ 2,793 licensed kennels requiring inspection in 2020, up 453 (19%) from 2016 Horse racing Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf year, schedule must be updated) ▪ Dept. of Conservation & Natural Resources (DCNR) ▪ Dept. of Drug & Alcohol Programs (DDAP) | PA Dept. of Revenue (DOR) ▪ PA Dept. of Insurance (PID) | Executive Offices (EO) PBB framework links funding levels to agency goals and outcomes ▪ FY Hits: 1
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst III Joseph Shockey, Revenue Analyst II Jackson Wilken, IFO Intern (June to August 2021) Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally Hits: 1
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Karen Maynard, Budget Analyst II Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Hits: 1
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Hits: 1
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Hits: 1
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues Hits: 1
PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdf Review of Tax Credits (Film Production, New Jobs & Historical Preservation Incentive) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department of Revenue Scott Dunkelberger, Executive Deputy Secretary, DCED Carol Kilko, Deputy Secretary, DCED Carrie Lepore, Deputy Secretary, DCED Andrea Lowery, Executive Director Hits: 1
PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdf Review of Tax Credits (Film Production, New Jobs & Historical Preservation Incentive) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department of Revenue Scott Dunkelberger, Executive Deputy Secretary, DCED Carol Kilko, Deputy Secretary, DCED Carrie Lepore, Deputy Secretary, DCED Andrea Lowery, Executive Director Hits: 1
novak ppt.pdf January 18, 2012 Jason Novak Research and Policy Support Manager Half Empty or Half Full? • Increased economic activity equals tax revenue increases if and only if the tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further employment and spending cuts Hits: 1
Newsstand_2019_March.pdf 14.1 billion of federal tax re- funds. Those refunds typically provide a boost to consumer spending and sales tax revenues in the spring. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2019-03-18 20 Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_October.pdf fiscal year (FFY) 2018 of $779 billion. The deficit is $113 billion (17.0%) higher than FFY 2017. Total tax revenue was up $14 billion (0.4%) from the prior year, constrained by a $92 billion (-31.1%) decline in corporate Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_December.pdf schedule will be higher than if the price was below that threshold. In June 2018, the IFO estimated impact fee revenues of $235 million if the average price exceeded $3.00. If the price fell below that threshold, then impact fee Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf PCE ($14.4 trillion) shifted to 66% services and 34% goods. On net, this shift likely enhances Pennsylvania sales tax revenues, as many goods are taxed but services are generally exempt. Consumer Debt Increases from Prior Year, Credit Card Balances Continue Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf Moreover, analysts have noted the disconnect between the Shelter component and very strong gains in the housing market. Impact Fee Revenues Could Increase Significantly in 2022 As noted in a WSJ article, natural gas prices have risen to levels not recorded Hits: 1
MER-2014-05.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7 Hits: 1
MER-2014-04.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ U.S. Census Bureau– Building Permits. 5/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 6/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 7 Hits: 1
MER-2014-03.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Hits: 1
MER-2014-02.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Hits: 1
MER-2014-01.pdf S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor ‐ Bureau of Hits: 1
MER-2013-12.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ U.S. Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Hits: 1
MER-2013-11.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months Hits: 1
Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.3 billion will be received. (For additional detail, see the IFO’s Initial Revenue Estimate released May 26, 2021.) Despite purchases motivated by the substantial transfer of federal funds, the latest payroll jobs data Hits: 1
jackson ppt.pdf professional services, also involved. • Hotels, restaurants, retail, short-term housing also get a boost. • State and local budget crunch (reduced revenues, more need for many services, can’t put it on a credit card) adding to job losses, among other things Hits: 1
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf the restaurant sector and 18 throughout other sectors in the state. • Taxes Generated: Based on the spending assumptions, state tax revenues related to the event include: $47,000 in state personal income tax and $120,000 in state sales tax. Local Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_Feb_21_2023.pdf to 50% for TY 2024, to 55% for TY 2025 and to 60% for TY 2026 and thereafter. The projected revenue loss associated with each scenario is detailed in the table on the next page. Overall, the impact is notably smaller Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdf both tiers). The estimate assumes that all current law transfers of SUT to other funds would be adjusted to a revenue neutral rate (i.e., the special funds would not receive a windfall from the higher tax rate). • A PIT rate Hits: 1
House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdf Estimated by IFO throughout. Source: Actuals reported by PDE. All forecasts by IFO (Feb 2021). Potential School Property Tax Replacement Revenues August 30, 2021 2 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 Raise SUT by 1.5 ppt (7.5% Hits: 1
House Budget Hearing Request.pdf Unfortunately, migration data for all individuals in a particular age group are not readily available. However, the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) provides state data on in and out migration by the age of the primary tax filer. These data Hits: 1
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf 1 3.4 4.6 11.2 Public Utility Commission 1.8 3.8 6.0 8.1 19.7 Revenue 4.3 9.1 14.5 19.6 47.5 State Department 1.9 4.0 6.4 8.6 Hits: 1
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf requested a copy of the 50-state tax burden report. A copy of the IFO’s State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison report released on January 19, 2022 is enclosed. An updated report for state and local taxes Hits: 1
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf presents Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and Hits: 1
2020 PBB Agenda.pdf Research & Development, Keystone Innovation Zones, Mobile Telecom & Broadband, Organ & Bone Marrow) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department of Revenue Dennis Davin, Secretary, DCED Sarah Spishock, Keystone Innovation Zones Program Manager Carol Kilko, Deputy Secretary of Business Financing 11:00 Hits: 1
2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf detailed discussion by IFO staff on the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures and revenues over the next five fiscal years. Guest Presenter: Ray Landis, Advocacy Manager AARP Pennsylvania Presentation on retirement insecurity and the Hits: 1
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months Hits: 1
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months Hits: 1
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months Hits: 1
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months Hits: 1
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months Hits: 1
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months Hits: 1
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Establishments. 3/ PA Department of Revenue. 4/ Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 5/ Energy Information Administration. 6/ U.S. Department of Labor. For non-release months Hits: 1
Pensions the plan intended to ensure that the Allegheny County Employees' Retirement System is maintained as tax qualified under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986. Legislative Session 2011 - 2012 Act 2012 - 43 (House Bill Number 1702, Printer's Number 3331). Signed into Hits: 1