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BUDGET AND ECONOMIC UPDATE PRESENTATION Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. Tags: gas, marcellus, natural, presentation, shale
BUDGET AND ECONOMIC UPDATE PRESENTATION Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. 03/31/2022
Budget and Economic Update Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. 03/31/2021
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf service," "irrevocable beneficiary," "leave for service with a collective bargaining organization," "reemployed from USERRA leave," "required beginning date," "salary deductions," "shared-risk contribution rate," "standard single life annuity," "superannuation or normal retirement age," "valuation interest" and "vestee" in section 8102 of section is amended by adding definitions to read: § 8102. Definitions. The following words and phrases when used in this part shall have, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the meanings given to them in this section: * * * "Accumulated employer defined contributions." The Hits: 1432
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf conditions to qualify for REHP premium assistance at either the Fully State-Paid or Majority State- Paid with 1% Member Share levels. 1) Retirement at or after superannuation age (age 60 for most members, depending upon class of service) with 15 full cost of the REHP coverage for the retiree and any eligible dependents. -8- • Majority State-Paid with 1% Member Share – For members retiring on or after July 1, 2005, who meet the age and service requirements, the Commonwealth pays the Hits: 116
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf concerns one element of economic sanctions intended to influence the policies and practices of foreign governments: divestment of securities and shares of companies that do business with targeted nations. Probably because of the ascendance of public pension systems as major institutional by a public fund or held in an account or fund of which the public fund owns all of the shares or interests. If a company on the “scrutinized company” list ceases scrutinized business operations within 90 days following the retirement Hits: 109
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf simulation demonstrates that the risk transfer grows over time as employ- ees under the new plan design comprise a greater share of the workforce. A “new employee” simula- tion estimates risk reduction of 53 percent for PSERS and 58 percent for cash flow basis and $2.9 billion on a present value basis. See pages 11 to 17 for details. Employee Shared Risk/Shared Gain Expansion of shared-risk contributions and introduction of shared-gain contributions could change risk reduction estimates by Hits: 107
2002_drop_report.pdf an IROP program established and administered by PMRS. 3) Any IROP established by PMRS for its defined benefit member plans shall be uniform and in compliance with the provisions of the IROP statute. 4) Any IROP established by PMRS shall be subject to a compliance audit conducted by the Auditor General within the initial year of operation and no less Hits: 82
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf a postretirement adjustment. The provision is as follows: Extra Compensation Prohibited; Claims against the Commonwealth; Pensions Section 26. No bill shall be passed giving any extra compensation to any public officer, servant, employee, agent or contractor, after services shall have been rendered or contract made, nor providing for the payment of any claim against the Commonwealth without previous authority Hits: 81
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 80
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 67
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” For the purposes of Hits: 53
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 47
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 40
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” For the purposes of Hits: 37
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 37
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf legacy coal mining activities. In federal fiscal year 2021, Pennsylvania received $27.4 million in AML grants, the second largest share, behind Wyo- ming. The IFO welcomes all questions and comments on the contents of this report. Questions and comments can Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is Hits: 35
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 34
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content: ▪ The purpose for which the tax credit was created. ▪ Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its the administrative costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where Hits: 31
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf 8 to 10 percent of littered items in the state were plastic or paper bags. By 2017, the share had dropped to 3.9 percent. Early remittances from Connecticut’s retail bag fee (10 cents) motivated significant reductions in fee revenue that per person bag usage is higher in rural counties, but urban counties account for a much larger share of the statewide total. To illustrate these characteristics, Table 3.2 compares LWPB usage in five select urban counties and five select Hits: 28
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf facto law, nor any law impairing the obligation of contracts, or making irrevocable any grant of special privileges or immunities, shall be passed. In Retirement Board of Allegheny County v. McGovern, 316 Pa. 161, 174 A. 400 (1934), the Pennsylvania Supreme Boston College released an update on its National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI). The NRRI was developed to 18 show the share of working households that are at risk of being unable to maintain a pre-retirement standard of living in retirement Hits: 28
DotPlotData.xlsx data are from source "D" listed above. 3. Current expenditures/student divides the results from (1) by (2) above. The share of tests scored as proficient or above is the total share of all PSSA, Keystone and PASA (i.e., all standardized tests) examinations completed in the school year by full-academic Hits: 27
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf which reduce the amount of nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment pollution that enters waterways. Most watershed states provide grants or cost-sharing funds to encourage farmers to adopt these practices. Other states use various oversight measures to increase usage of BMPs. This for previously completed BMPs. These credits do not incentivize new activity. Recent data suggest these credits comprise a signif- icant share of total awards. ▪ Roughly 55 percent of REAP Tax Credits are sold for an average of 85 cents per dollar Hits: 26
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where applicable, the Hits: 26
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where applicable, the Hits: 26
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 26
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf member level, there is no restriction in the application of NOLs, but NOL deductions are limited to the “member’s share of combined unitary income after the apportionment.” 11 10 The safe harbor is the total minimum amount of estimated payments 49%, 43% and 43%, respectively). These estimates reflect the impact of combined reporting only and exclude any proposed rate reduction. Share of CR % Change Class Count Firms Current and 5.99% CR Only CR Only No Impact 74,427 62% $0 Hits: 25
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf cannot be quantified accurately in mone- tary terms. ▪ Multi-year awards for the Neighborhood Partnership Program (NPP) comprise the largest share of NAP Tax Credit commitments (roughly 40 percent of the total). Banks and corporations generate roughly 80 percent of credits Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content: ▪ The purpose for which the tax credit was created. ▪ Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its Hits: 24
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Most states provide a non-refundable credit equal to (1) a specified amount per job, or (2) a share of payroll (or withholding) associated with the newly created jobs. Pennsylvania offers $10.1 million in annual non-re- fundable credits, at to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its Hits: 23
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits Hits: 23
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report Hits: 23
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO Hits: 23
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 21
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 21
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO sub- Hits: 21
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is the administrative costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where Hits: 20
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 20
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits Hits: 20
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this Hits: 20
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf Pennsylvania Forward Act 120 of 2010 establishes the Independent Fiscal Office. Section 4104 of the Act specifies that the Office shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, we submit this Hits: 19
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content: ▪ The purpose for which the tax credit was created. ▪ Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its the administrative costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where Hits: 18
2002_dbdc_report.pdf a major financial services marketing and information consulting -18- company, and published in the January-February 2001 issue of Profit Sharing. The article, “Survey Examines Behavior of Employees Eligible for Lump-sum Payments,” which was written by Lucian J. Lombardi and 04% to pay for an education program for the DC plan alternative. 6 The U. S. Constitution provides: “No state shall … pass any … Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts … .” The Pa. Constitution provides: “No ex post facto law, nor any law Hits: 18
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf integrated and interrelated through their activities so as to provide a synergy and mutual benefit that produces a sharing or exchange of value among them and a significant flow of value to the separate parts. Source: “Allocation and Apportionment Regulations” Multistate there is no restriction in the application of NOLs, but NOL deductions are limited to the “member’s share of combined unitary income after the apportionment.” 16 This application of NOLs is generally more narrow than other states, and would likely Hits: 17
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 17
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf and redevel- opment. Some states offer credits as a portion of remediation costs. Other states provide the credit as a share of qualifying investment in the property. This analysis examines available data and other issues that determine the effectiveness of the the credit as a portion of remediation costs. Other states (e.g., Iowa and Kentucky) provide the credit as a share of qualifying investment in the property.  Two SIA sites have been designated as KSDZs. One is located in Bethlehem Hits: 16
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf General Assembly: Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO Hits: 16
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where applicable, the Hits: 15
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf fixed dollar amount per job ($500 to $4,000 depending on the state) while others compute the credit as a share of payroll (4.75% to 5.00% depending on the state). Each state program has its own requirements for minimum the credit as a fixed dollar amount per job ($500 to $4,000) while others compute the credit as a share of payroll (4.75% to 5.00%). Each state program has its own requirements for minimum qualified wages and minimum Hits: 14
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf retirement. In 2012, residents age 65 or older comprised 16.0 percent of the total state population. By 2018, the share increased to 18.3 percent. Therefore, the changing age composition of total households will effectively increase growth rates for the largely represent the same group of residents that are six years older; the only difference will be the relatively small share of households that enters or leaves the state during the six- 2 Households exclude individuals living in various group quarter Hits: 14
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 14
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 14
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 14
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 14
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf integrated and interrelated through their activities so as to provide a synergy and mutual benefit that produces a sharing or exchange of value among them and a significant flow of value to the separate parts. Source: “Allocation and Apportionment Regulations” Multi- Fiscal Office (March 2013) http://www.ifo.state.pa.us./Releases.cfm. 3 Under the administration’s proposal, sharing of NOLs between members of a unitary business group is not permitted and the 40 percent NOL cap is applied to the Hits: 13
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf race of workers. Younger workers, women, and to a lesser extent, non-white workers experienced job loss disproportionate to their share of the Pennsylvania workforce. The most dramatic job loss occurred for workers aged 14 to 24, who experienced a decline Assistance (PUA) program) from August 2020 published by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry are relatively comparable to the share of job loss across the demographic characteristics of workers. Workers aged 14 to 24 (28% of job loss, but only Hits: 13
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf refunds that may have been paid to firms. For the last three fiscal years, the industries that remitted the largest share of Pennsylvania CNIT payments were manufacturers (16.4 percent), wholesalers (16.4 percent) and retailers (11.2 percent). Across all of natural gas prices. Table 3: Corporate Net Income Tax Cash Payments by Industry 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Share Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing $6.0 $4.0 $4.4 0.2% Mining 118.7 39.2 62.2 2 Hits: 13
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf concludes with results from the simulation and sensitivity analyses included in the PSERS report. Methodology The PSERS report projects the share of payroll required to meet employer contributions for fiscal years (FY) 2022-23 through FY 2050-51. This analysis reflects 2022). PSERS Stress Test Impact Analysis | Page 2 The IFO also projects the appropriation necessary to pay the state’s share of the employer contributions attributable to qualified school employees in the Economic and Budget Outlook report. Projections made in this Hits: 12
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 12
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf 2017) 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% -0.7% 0.7% 7 Share Under Age 18 (2017) 21.3% 22.3% 22.0% 20.9% 22.3% 20.8% 22.1% 20.4% 22.6% 8 Share Age 65+ (2016) 17.5% 14.6% 15.3% 15.4% 16.2% 17.4% 14.6% 18.8% 15 Hits: 12
2004_srpvffinal.pdf and five of the 15 plans were locally administered. In three of the plans, the administrative and investment responsibilities were shared between state and local authorities. Each of the centrally administered, statewide plans was, for administrative purposes, treated as a component allocations under the Foreign Fire Insurance Premium Tax Distribution Law that are payable to all municipalities that provide the State- shared revenue to one or more VFRAs certified as participating in the SRPVF, and 2) transfer the total monies deducted in Hits: 12
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content: ▪ The purpose for which the tax credit was created. ▪ Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its the administrative costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where Hits: 11
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf phase-in of the reduced corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. The IFO analysis also projects the share of pension contributions that will be made using General Fund revenues. Using data from the Economic and Budget Outlook, the to 54% (FY 2027-28) of the ADC will come from the General Fund. 4 By FY 2042-43, the share is projected to fall to 52% of contributions. Note that figures include offsets for credits claimed by The Pennsylvania State Hits: 11
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf integrated and interrelated through their activities so as to provide a synergy and mutual benefit that produces a sharing or exchange of value among them and a significant flow of value to the separate parts. Source: “Allocation and Apportionment Regulations” Multistate at a one-time cost of $1 million (not included in table). 6 Under the administration’s proposal, sharing of NOLs between members of a unitary business group is not permitted and the 40 percent NOL cap is applied to the Hits: 11
RB_2023_03_Rainy_Day_Fund.pdf states for FY 1999-00 to FY 2022-23 and includes (1) the dollar amount of fund balances, (2) the share of General Fund expenditures covered by balances and (3) the number of operating days that could be financed by those 6% of enacted General Fund expenditures for FY 2022-23. (Using data from the FY 2023-24 Executive Budget, the share of expenditures increases to 12.1% for FY 2022-23.) Pennsylvania ranked 27 th across all states and the median Hits: 11
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf the degree of judgment and care required in determining quality, liquidity, and return. Section 7302(b) provides that: Any investment shall be an authorized investment if purchased or retained in the exercise of that degree of judgment and care, under the as well as the probable safety of their capital. The authorization to make and retain investments pursuant to this subsection shall be in addition to, and independent of, authorizations to make investments pursuant to other provisions of this chapter and requirements Hits: 11
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx effects January 23, 2020 2 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis has 3 steps ▪ Determine the amount/share of spending incentivized ▪ Determine type of spending and industries affected ▪ Use IMPLAN to estimate multiplier effects, jobs, tax revenues Economic is oversubscribed | 84% proration factor | 80-90% are sold Numerous positive indirect effects and benefits ▪ Clustering : synergies due to idea sharing, innovation ▪ Agglomeration : cost reductions due to physical location ▪ Entrepreneurial : provide seed capital and mentoring to start-ups ▪ Incubation : provide on- Hits: 11
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf Production Report (October 2015)  Quarterly Revenue Review (October 2015)  Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania (November 2015)  Shared Risk Pension Analysis (December 2015)  Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015‐16 to 2020‐21 (January 2016)  of 2.8% per annum over the next decade. 12 Compared to nearly all surrounding states, Pennsylvania has a higher share of older residents. 13 Natural Gas Outlook According to the DEP, unconventional production increased by 12.5% in calendar year Hits: 11
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf eligible construction and rehabilitation projects. In other states, the tax credit is available directly to the developer to offset a share of project costs. This analysis examined available data and other issues that determine the effectiveness of the Mixed-Use De- to eligible construction and rehabilitation projects. In other states, the tax credit is available directly to developers to offset a share of project costs. The final section of this report contains various recommendations. A summary is as follows: ▪ Convert the tax Hits: 10
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where applicable, the Hits: 10
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Table 2 uses data from various IFO, SERS and PSERS reports to project the share of General Fund (GF) revenue that will be needed to support the state’s pension obligations. Since FY 2015-16 all funds. 2 Includes $1.1 billion prepayment in unfunded liability from The Pennsylvania State University. SERS 1 FY Annual Share of Ending SERS PSERS Total Growth Revenue 2016 $665 $1,719 $2,384 -- 7.7% 2017 784 2,064 2 Hits: 10
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf compensation and certain net profits earned one quarter prior (i.e., 2019 Q4 to 2020 Q3) and (3) gaming local share assessment distributions on a one quarter delay (i.e., 2019 Q4 to 2020 Q3). Hence, COVID-19 will affect only rate for 2020 Q1 was 3.5% * 50% = 1.75%. 1 The only school district to receive a gaming local share assessment is the Philadelphia school district, which receives a guarantee of $5 million annually in addition to a 1 percent Hits: 10
RB-2015-04.pdf 080 to $21,010, an increase of $5,930. However, those wage gains would be reduced by the employee’s share of payroll taxes (7.65 percent), which would reduce wage gains to $5,475. Under current law, wage gains may on an hourly basis comprise roughly three‐ Ðifths of total non‐farm payroll employment. For the U.S., the respective share is lower. There are several types of hourly‐paid workers who may earn hourly compensation that falls below the federal Hits: 10
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf Change 2001-2016 -1.2% -1.1% +5.0% +8.1% Note: The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the share of the age group that is part of the labor force. The labor force includes all individuals actively working or Labor and Industry, Center for Workforce Information and Analysis. Regional Population Comparison 7/14/2017 11 Levels (000s) and Growth Shares and Median Age 2010 2015 AAGR < 20 65+ Median Delaware 900 946 1.0% 24.3 17.0 40.0 Hits: 10
NGPR-2015-2H.pdf February 2016 - Natural Gas Production Report Table 3A: Second Half 2015 Production, by Spud Year Spud Number Currently Percentage Production Share of Total Avg Second Half Year of Wells Producing Producing Volume (bcf) Production Production (bcf) 2015 784 156 19.9% 67.6 percent produced gas, respectively. Table 3B: Calendar Year 2015 Production, by Spud Year Spud Number Currently Percentage Production Share of Total Avg Full Year Year of Wells Producing Producing Volume (bcf) Production Production (bcf) 2015 784 158 20.2% Hits: 10
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf drilling. 19 A recent price spike closes the gap between local hub spot prices and the Henry Hub. 20 (3) Shaded figures represent preliminary data or forecasts. For 2016, U.S. economic growth is subdued due to weak exports and business contracts. Decline in mortgage debt may be due to (1) an aging population and (2) lack of first-time homebuyers. Share of personal consumption expenditures to (non-taxable) services continues to increase every year. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates 2008 2009 Hits: 10
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf drilling. 19 A recent price spike closes the gap between local hub spot prices and the Henry Hub. 20 (3) Shaded figures represent preliminary data or forecasts. For 2016, U.S. economic growth is subdued due to weak exports and business contracts. Decline in mortgage debt may be due to (1) an aging population and (2) lack of first-time homebuyers. Share of personal consumption expenditures to (non-taxable) services continues to increase every year. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates 2008 2009 Hits: 10
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where applicable, the Hits: 9
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf Page 2 FY 2020-21 was shifted into FY 2019-20. These factors contribute to the increase in the federal share of senior program expenditures from 46.4% in FY 2018-19 to 54.2% in FY 2020-21 (projected). Table FY 2020-21 was shifted into FY 2019-20. 8 Includes Transfer to Public Transportation Trust Fund and Older Pennsylvanians Shared Rides appropriations. 9 Veterans Homes funding attributable to residents age 65 and older. April 16, 2021 Page 6 Total Total Hits: 9
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf residents (and any dependents) with AGI under $25,000. For filers reporting less than $100,000 in TY 2019, the share increases to 85% ($27.7 billion) of the total value. Provision 2: Expanded Unemployment Compensation Programs The federal government enacted allows workers who claimed unemployment benefits for any day during a one-week period Income Level CARES CAA ARP Amount Share Below $25k $3.60 $1.94 $4.86 $10.41 32.0% $25k to $50k 2.75 1.57 3 Hits: 9
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf 2010 PA Population Distribution 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Note: Vertical axis is thousands of residents. Percentages are share of state population. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Baby Boom 28.1% Silent Gen 13.0% 2.5% Generation X 2025 PA Population Distribution 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Note: Vertical axis in thousands of residents. Percentages are share of state population. Source: All projections by the IFO. Baby Boom 22.8% Silent Gen 5.3% Generation X 23 Hits: 9
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf and Pennsylvania State Data Center. May 24, 2017 4 The Five Generations Age in PA (000s) U.S. 2015 Number Share Share Diff Gen Z <10 1,451 11.3% 12.6% -1.3% Gen Y 10 - 29 3,307 25.8% Hits: 9
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 9
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 9
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf underlying pattern of actual tax liability. Revenues that use the basic tax liability method include gross receipts, bank shares and insurance premiums taxes. Introduction | Page 2 Full Tax Liability Method Under the full tax liability method, projections are made for some actual collections and the amounts that should be remitted. The IRS defines the “net misreporting percentage” as the share of true income not reported. A recent tax gap study finds the following net misreporting percentages: wage income (1 percent), net capital Hits: 9
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf underlying pattern of actual tax liability. Revenues that use the basic tax liability method include gross receipts, bank shares and insurance premiums taxes. Introduction | Page 2 Full Tax Liability Method Under the full tax liability method, projections are made for some actual collections and the amounts that should be remitted. The IRS defines the “net misreporting percentage” as the share of true income not reported. A recent tax gap study finds the following net misreporting percentages: wage income (1 percent), net capital Hits: 9
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where applicable, the Hits: 8
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf year (CY) 2017. Therefore, both the state (FY 2017-18) and local (FY 2016-17) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2017) measure to which they are compared. In general, the state rankings the personal consumption of those services by state residents, compared to the U.S. average. Therefore, a higher share of sector output is attributable to tourism. Based on the state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii Hits: 8
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf projected to grow to $9.32 billion in FY 2019-20. The Department of Human Services (DHS) comprises the largest share of spending for senior programs. The department spent $6.22 billion on senior programs in FY 2017-18, and that on a business and passed through to shareholders, workers or consumers (e.g., corporate net income, insurance premiums and bank shares), mid-sized or smaller tax types (e.g., realty transfer) and taxes not based on income or consumption (e.g Hits: 8
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a performance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the Hits: 8
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 8
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf 3 percent of passenger transactions and 15.6 percent of commercial transactions. However, the Barrier System comprises a much smaller share of passenger (7.3 percent) and commercial (4.0 percent) revenues. Due to the relatively small share of toll revenues, the analysis assumes that Barrier System transactions grow at the same rate as other relevant portions of Hits: 8
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf from the underlying pattern of actual tax liability. Revenues that use the basic tax liability method include gross receipts, bank shares and insurance premiums taxes. Full Tax Liability Method Under the full tax liability method, projections are made for some or difference between actual collections and the amounts that should be remitted. The IRS defines the “net misreporting percentage” as the share of true income not reported. A recent tax gap study finds the following net misreporting percentages: wage income (1%), net Hits: 8
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf from the underlying pattern of actual tax liability. Revenues that use the basic tax liability method include gross receipts, bank shares and insurance premiums taxes. Full Tax Liability Method Under the full tax liability method, projections are made for some or difference between actual collections and the amounts that should be remitted. The IRS defines the “net misreporting percentage” as the share of true income not reported. A recent tax gap study finds the following net misreporting percentages: wage income (1%), net Hits: 8
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf 0.9% 2020 Q2 -17.7% -13.9% -7.3% -4.7% -7.1% -5.6% -6.4% -7.2% Share of 2019 Q2 Jobs 2.4% 9.4% 21.5% 20.0% 20.8% 19.0% 6.9% 100.0% Share of 2020 Q2 Job Loss 5.8% 18.1% 21.9% 13.1% 20.3% 14.8% 6.1% 100 Hits: 8
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf is unemployment. Net Jobs Gains excludes independent contractors, self-employed and military. 6 PA Employment Gains and Losses by Sector Share of Sector 2017 2018 2019 Jobs Mining 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.5% Construction 9.9 6.8 Colorado 30.2 48.2 36.8 0.6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Net Domestic Migrants, Avg Level (000s) Share of Residents Note: Rank is based on 2019 data. Share of residents is the net outflow or inflow relative to Hits: 8
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf ized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over- year change in the index. 2 Delinquent Debt Share of U.S. consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.2% 0 ized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over- year change in the index. 2 Delinquent Debt Share of PA consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2011.1 3.1% -0.1% 4.9% 2012.2 Hits: 8
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is the administrative costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where Hits: 7
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf  HPTC: too small ($3 million) in current form. January 24, 2019 2 Key Factors for All Tax Credits What share of activity actually incentivized by credit?  FPTC: studies use 85% to 100%. Some note it could be lower.  JCTC: studies find very low share: ~5%.  HPTC: incentivizes small projects but not larger ones. Credits need not incentivize all recipients.  If less than Hits: 7
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx clear. ▪ HPTC: too small ($3 million) in current form. January 24, 2019 2 Key Factors for All Tax Credits What share of activity actually incentivized by credit? ▪ FPTC : studies use 85% to 100%. S ome note it could be lower. ▪ JCTC: studies find very low share: ~5%. ▪ HPTC: incentivizes small projects but not larger ones. Credits need not incentivize all recipients. ▪ If less than 100% incentivized Hits: 7
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf  HPTC: too small ($3 million) in current form. January 24, 2019 2 Key Factors for All Tax Credits What share of activity actually incentivized by credit?  FPTC: studies use 85% to 100%. Some note it could be lower.  JCTC: studies find very low share: ~5%.  HPTC: incentivizes small projects but not larger ones. Credits need not incentivize all recipients.  If less than Hits: 7
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf from calendar year (CY) 2020. Therefore, both the state (FY 2020-21) and local (FY 2019-20) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2020) measure to which they are compared. Due to the higher than the personal consumption of those services by state residents, compared to the U.S. average. Therefore, a higher share of sector output is attributable to tourism. Based on the state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Hits: 7
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf year (CY) 2018. Therefore, both the state (FY 2018-19) and local (FY 2017-18) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2018) measure to which they are compared. In general, the state rankings the personal consumption of those services by state residents, compared to the U.S. average. Therefore, a higher share of sector output is attributable to tourism. Based on the state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii Hits: 7
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf data sources show that senior homeowners (age 65 or older) remitted approximately 30% of homeowner property taxes in 2018. That share is assumed to increase to 31% by FY 2020-21 due to (1) the rapidly expanding share of seniors in the state population and (2) the increase in seniors who elect to remain in their homes. Table Hits: 7
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf due to demographics. 12.June.2014 2 Today’s Presentation 12.June.2014 3 Broad Demographic Trends 2000 2010 2020 Shares Number Number CAGR Number CAGR 2000 2020 PA (000s) 0 – 19 3,271 3,173 -0.3% 3,116 -0 But trend starts before recession. o Insufficient savings? Longer life spans?  Possible Skills Gap if Older Workers Comprise Larger Share of Workforce? 12.June.2014 13 Trend: Aging of Workforce 12.June.2014 14 PA Labor Force Participation Rates Change Hits: 7
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf 2018). $15,355 $13,714 $14,031 $14,429 $14,874 $16,448 $17,078 March 8, 2018 Property Tax Shares By Age Group Age Group Household Share Property Tax Share 60 or over 45.5% 43.8% 65 or over 32.9 31.3 70 or over Hits: 7
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf January 25, 2022 1 PDA Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020-21) January 25, 2022 2 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Administration 28 35.2% $34 6.3% Adult Daily Living Centers/QA 17 21.2% 2 0.4% Aging Services Hits: 7
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf April 28, 2021 1 PSP Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2019-20) April 28, 2021 2 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Traffic Enforcement & Crash Prevention 2,870 45.5% $548.0 43.3% Administration & Support 1,206 19.1% 236.9 Hits: 7
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” For the purposes of Act 48 Hits: 7
MTR-2017-02.pdf electricity for Pennsylvania, comprising over 90% of total electricity generated in 2006. While nuclear energy has maintained a relatively stable share of the electricity generation market since 2006, coal’s share has dropped precipitously. Over the last decade, coal’s share of electricity generation in Pennsylvania has contracted from 55% in Hits: 7
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf 5) is included on the last page. FY 2022-23 Corporate Net Income -$89.7 Insurance Premiums -8.2 Bank Shares -16.2 Mutual Thrift Institutions -0.9 Sales Tax - Non-motor 100.2 Table Games -5.0 Personal Income - Withholding projected to increase FY 2022-23 CNIT revenues by $38.4 million. Sales and Use Tax Person-to-Person Car Sharing (Act 53) The act provides consistency between traditional vehicle rentals and those rented via a peer-to-peer agree- ments Hits: 7
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf 2018 6 Independent Fiscal Office Age 0-19 PA 23.6% US 25.4% Age 20 40.7 37.9 share of population PA Economic Growth Slows -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Ratio: Working Age / Age 65+ 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.4 Share PA Population Age 65+ 15.4% 17.0% 19.0% 21.4% 23.0% Approximate Share of State Taxes Paid Hits: 7
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE To: Matthew Knittel, Director From: Mark J. Ryan Subject: Updated Projections for the State Share of PSERS Employer Contributions Date: December 12, 2017 On December 8, 2017, the Board of Trustees of the Public School 19. The certified rate is 0.75 percentage points lower than the employer contribution rate used to estimate the state share of PSERS employer contributions in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, which was issued by Hits: 7
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf ized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over- year change in the index. 2 Delinquent Debt Share of U.S. consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0 ized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over- year change in the index. 2 Delinquent Debt Share of PA consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 3.1% -0.1% 4.9% 2012.2 Hits: 7
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content:  The purpose for which the tax credit was created.  Whether the tax credit is the administrative costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where Hits: 6
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf exceeds 6,000 pounds. Prior to June 24, 2008, this exemption was limited to private aircraft with fractional share ownership. Currently, Ohio does not have a fly-away exemption. New York Sales of private aircraft in New York are generally subject for hire and by the purchaser to transport tangible property for business purposes. 4/ Exempts aircraft with fractional share ownership. 5/ Exempts aircraft considered as rolling stock. 6/ Exempts aircraft purchased for public transportation. 7/ Excludes local sales tax. 8/ The Hits: 6
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf higher than the personal consumption of those services by state residents, compared to the U.S. average. Therefore, a higher share of sector output is attributable to tourism. Based on the state data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Hawaii’s sales tax is reduced by 15% and Nevada by 25% to account for each state’s unusually large share of sales tax likely attributable to tourism. Similar adjustments were not made for other states because their ratio of production Hits: 6
SR2017-06.pdf a survey of county assessment offices that resulted in responses from 50 counties and contributes to an understanding of the share of the property tax base that is comprised of homestead property. These data will be used to analyze proposals pertaining Knittel Director Enclosure Revised 1/18/2018 County Note Homestead Count Total Taxable Assessed Value Homestead Assessed Value Homestead AV Share Adams A 26,514 $9,363 $5,703 61% Allegheny A 307,650 83,416 45,489 55 Armstrong D Hits: 6
SR2017-03.pdf from calendar year (CY) 2014. Therefore, both the state (FY 2014-15) and local (FY 2013-14) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state personal income (CY 2014) measure to which they are compared. It should be th ), New Jersey (9 th ), Maryland (11 th ) and Delaware (13 th ) in total state and local taxes as a share of personal income. Table 8 Total Tax State Rank Amount Ratio State Rank Amount Ratio North Dakota 1 $6,838 Hits: 6
RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdf next page displays the number of renter households that received assistance, the average amount per household and (where available) the share of renter households in a county that received assistance through September 2022. 2 The Pennsylvania Housing Finance Agency (PHFA) administered state.pa.us or mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us. Office Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us County Assisted Avg. Value Share County Assisted Avg. Value Share Adams 2,538 $2,906 30.5% Lackawanna 2,162 $8,437 7.3% Allegheny Hits: 6
RB-2016-02.pdf by provid‐ ing access to funding, investors and technical expertise. The program receives appropriations from the Tobacco Settlement Fund. Local Share Assessment N/A N/A Distributes monies to local governments from the slots and table games local share assessment. The funds are used for a broad range of services, such as debt service repayment, infrastructure, recreation, community devel‐ Hits: 6
PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf million through FY 2049-50 Timing shift for defined contribution payments Savings increase as Act 5 employees comprise a greater share of the workforce Risk Mitigation Under Act 5 6/28/2017 5  Risk mitigation refers to the reduced sensitivity risk mitigation will be small at first, but it will increase over time as Act 5 employees comprise a greater share of the workforce. PSERS Risk Mitigation Grows Over Time 6/28/2017 6 Fiscal Years Average Change in Risk 2019 Hits: 6
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf Center for Workforce Information & Analysis. 15 PA Labor Force Participation Rates 12.May.2016 +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income. • Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. • Wage income less important. Reliance on Pensions, Savings Note: U.S. returns, tax year 2013. Includes non‐taxable social security, interest and pension income. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Share of Total Income on Federal Tax Return By Income Type and Age Cohort 17 12.May.2016 Large Job Shift Hits: 6
platt ppt.pdf income) ▪ Government and business transfers  Including Social Security, UI, Medicare/Medicaid, workers’ compensation benefits 6 www.bea.gov Component Shares of Personal Income 7 Wages 50.1% Transfer Receipts 20.7% Other 29.2% Component Share of Pennsylvania Personal Income 2011Q3 www.bea.gov Changes in Personal Income Components 8 -5.6% -5.7% -4.7% Hits: 6
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf PEMA) January 22, 2020 6 PEMA Actual Spend and FTEs (2018-19) January 22, 2020 7 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Response Operations 49 30.6% $5.0 1.2% Administration 36 22.5% 13.3 3.1% Planning, Training and Hits: 6
NGPR-2022-Q1.pdf gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale). The production and well count data used throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of total in production volume. Most other counties also recorded a decline in quarterly production volume. Only seven counties, with a combined share of 38.9%, recorded year-over-year growth in production volume. Table 4 provides a state comparison of gross natural Hits: 6
MTR-2016-05.pdf as an indicator for U.S. consumer spending trends. The chart below displays annual sales for certain sectors as a share of total retail sales. The data reveal some interesting trends. Food services and drinking places (e.g., restaurants and bars) is now one of the largest sectors of retail sales, as the share of total sales increased from 12.6% in 2004 to 15.0% in 2016 (January through April). Most of the Hits: 6
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf section. FY 2021-22 Corporate Net Income -$44.5 Gross Receipts -0.3 Insurance Premiums -6.2 Bank Shares -4.1 Sales Tax - Non-motor -18.7 Tables Games 12.3 Personal Income - Withholding -12.3 Personal Income - Annual -20.3 Manufacturing Innovation and Reinvestment Deduction (Act 25) The act provides that the qualified manufacturing innovation and reinvestment deduction shall be applied after the apportionment of multi-state income to Pennsylvania. Effective for tax years beginning January 1, 2021. Prior Law The Hits: 6
MER-2015-03.pdf residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S Hits: 6
MER-2014-07.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 6
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf Demographics Population Growth (2018) 0.3% 0.2% -0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% -0.6% 0.6% Share Under Age 18 (2017) 22.3% 22.0% 20.9% 22.3% 20.8% 22.1% 20.4% 22.6% Share Age 65+ (2017) 14.9% 15.8% 15.9% 16.7% 17.8% 15.0% 19.4% 15.6% Annual Hits: 6
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf Pennsylvania Population Gains Demographics – Population Gains # (000s) % Pop. # (000s) % Pop. # (000s) % Pop. Rank Top 10 (Total Population Gains as a Share of April 1, 2020 Population) Idaho 10.3 0.6% 91.2 5.0% 99.9 5.4% 1 Montana 39.6 -0.3 -6.0 -0.1 -43.3 -0.4 41 Bottom 10 (Total Population Gains as a Share of April 1, 2020 Population) Michigan -29.2 -0.3 -16.9 -0.2 -43.2 -0.4 42 Massachusetts Hits: 6
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 6
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf the following table (See next page). Funding Source SFY 2017-18 Amount Percent State Funding $1,077.5 59% Local Share $363.8 20% Federal Funding $352.5 19% Other $34.5 2% Total $1,828.3 100% Note: Dollar amounts to Family First. The following table provides estimates of the potential impact by state fiscal year. The state and county shares of congregate care expenditures that no longer qualify for federal reimbursement are estimated at 78 percent and 22 percent, respectively Hits: 5
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf details and data become available. Table 2 uses the income breakouts from the analysis and applies it to the Pennsylvania share of total federal student loan debt. Data from the U.S. Department of Education show that the Pennsylvania share of outstanding federal student loans is 4.5%, or $69.2 billion and 1.96 million borrowers. 3 The table Hits: 5
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf Resources (DCNR) January 9, 2023 4 DCNR Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 21-22) January 9, 2023 5 Activities Amount Share Number Share State Parks $135.2 39% 1,292 60% State Forests 119.1 34 712 33 Local Rec. & Conservation 48.3 Hits: 5
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 5
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 5
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf of the Pennsylvania Performance-Based Budget Board: Act 48 of 2017 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “review agency performance-based budget information and develop an agency performance-based budget plan for agencies subject to a per- formance-based budget review.” This review “shall be completed in a timely manner and submitted by the IFO to the board for review.” This report contains the review for Hits: 5
NGPR-2021-Q1.pdf gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale). The production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of unconventional production into one group. In CY 2020, Pennsylvania recorded the strongest year- over-year growth of top-producing states. Pennsylvania’s share of nationwide production was 17.9%, an increase of one percentage point from CY 2019 and its largest share on Hits: 5
NGPR-2019Q4.pdf Production Report Q4 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 2019 Growth Share 2019 n.a. 136.4 n.a. 7.7% n.a. 190.2 n.a. 2.8% 2018 114.1 Hits: 5
NGPR-2019Q3.pdf Production Report Q3 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 2019 Growth Share 2019 n.a. 45.5 n.a. 2.7% n.a. 53.7 n.a. 1.1% 2018 25.9 Hits: 5
NGPR-2019Q2.pdf Production Report Q2 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 2019 Growth Share 2019 n.a. 8.0 n.a. 0.5% n.a. 8.2 n.a. 0.2% 2018 0.3 Hits: 5
NGPR-2019Q1.pdf Natural Gas Production Report Q1 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) First Quarter Spud Year 2018 2019 Growth Share 2018 2019 Growth Share 2019 n.a. 0.2 n.a. 0.0% n.a. 0.2 n.a. 0.0% 2018 0.0 Hits: 5
NGPR-2018Q4.pdf Production Report Q4 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Fourth Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth Share 2017 2018 Growth Share 2018 n.a. 114.1 n.a. 6.9% n.a. 140.3 n.a. 2.3% 2017 107.6 Hits: 5
NGPR-2018Q3.pdf Q3 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Third Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth Share 2017 2018 Growth Share 2018 n.a. 25.9 n.a. 1.7% n.a. 26.2 n.a. 0.6% 2017 25.5 Hits: 5
NGPR-2018Q2.pdf Q2 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) Second Quarter Calendar Year-to-Date Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth Share 2017 2018 Growth Share 2018 n.a. 0.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 n.a. n.a. 2017 1.4 Hits: 5
NGPR-2018Q1.pdf Production Report Q1 Table 2: Production Volume by Spud Year (bcf) First Quarter Calendar Year Spud Year 2017 2018 Growth Share 2017 2018 Growth Share 2018 n.a. 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 n.a. n.a. 2017 0 195.8 n Hits: 5
NGPR-2016Q1.pdf but only 219 (27.9 percent) produced gas in the first quarter of 2016. Figure 1 (next page) shows the share of total production from horizontal wells for the calendar year-to-date, based on the year wells were spud. Table County Production Volume (bcf) Number of Producing Wells Year-to-Date 2016 Metrics Year-to-Date Rank County 2016 2015 Share Growth 2016 2015 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 308.3 288.8 24.2% 6.8% 950 812 14.4% 17 Hits: 5
NGPR-2015-1H.pdf September 2015 - Natural Gas Production Report Table 3: First Half 2015 Production, by Spud Year Spud Spud Currently Percentage Production Share of Total Avg First Half Year Wells Producing Producing Volume (bcf) Production Production (bcf) 2015 420 8 1.9% 1 first half of the year. Table 4: First Half 2015 Production, by County Production (bcf) Producing Wells January to June Share Share Share Share Rank County 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 1 Susquehanna 549.5 448.4 24 Hits: 5
NGPR-2015-09.pdf September 2015 - Natural Gas Production Report Table 3: First Half 2015 Production, by Spud Year Spud Spud Currently Percentage Production Share of Total Avg First Half Year Wells Producing Producing Volume (bcf) Production Production (bcf) 2015 420 8 1.9% 1 first half of the year. Table 4: First Half 2015 Production, by County Production (bcf) Producing Wells January to June Share Share Share Share Rank County 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 1 Susquehanna 549.5 448.4 24 Hits: 5
MTR-2015-08.pdf capital requirements had negative implications for their thinner profit margins. As a result, large banks now comprise a somewhat greater share of the Pennsylvania market, as measured by their share of total deposits. In 2006, the ten largest banks comprised 59.7 percent of the market, and by 2014 they Hits: 5
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Excludes self-employed. 2019 is preliminary. PA Cash Income Sources ($ billions) February 28, 2020 8 2006 Share 2018 Share AAGR Wages-Salaries $248.0 59.8% $348.1 58.0% 2.9% Net Business Income $41.2 9.9% Hits: 5
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Jan to April 2022 Pennsylvania Jobs Still Lag Pre-COVID Levels January 31, 2023 6 Change From Dec 2019 Annual Share of Dec 21 Dec 22 Gain Dec 19 Total Payroll Employment -254 -54 +200 99.1% Construction -11 -2 9 self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Subsector Detail January 31, 2023 7 Change From Dec 2019 Annual Share of Dec 21 Dec 22 Gain Dec 19 Jobs Contraction Nursing and Residential Care -32 -25 7 87.8% Full- Hits: 5
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 5
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7 by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 3.0% -0.1% 4.9% 2012.2 2 Hits: 5
Pensions members from 5 years to 10 years. • Established a variable employee contribution rate applicable to new members, known as the "shared risk contribution rate," that is tied to the investment performance of each System's pension fund and would be added rate will decrease by 2%. New hires will contribute at the rate in effect when they are hired. The additional shared risk contributions will be used to reduce the unfunded accrued liabilities of the Systems. If the System is fully funded Hits: 5
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf pay half (6.2 percent of OASDI and 1.45 percent of HI) of total FICA taxes. The employee’s share is withheld from wages and remitted to the federal government by the employer, along with the employer’s share. The payroll tax cut reduced the employee’s OASDI tax rate by two percentage points, from 6.2 to 4 Hits: 4
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf Committees and to make reports available to the public on the IFO website. The act specifies that tax credit reviews shall contain the following content: ▪ The purpose for which the tax credit was created. ▪ Whether the tax credit is accomplishing its the administrative costs to the Commonwealth and local government entities within this Commonwealth. The act also specifies that the IFO shall develop a tax credit plan for all tax credits subject to review. The plans should include performance measures, and where Hits: 4
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf than New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Delaware and West Virginia, but higher than Maryland. Table 5 displays the share of total revenue collections for each state based on revenue source. For FYE 2010 and 2011, Pennsylvania’s largest revenue source was 4 percent), gaming-liquor-other (6.9 percent) and CIT (5.2 percent). By comparison, the weighted average shares across all states were as follows: property (32.8 percent), PIT (21.1 percent), SUT (24.2 percent), gaming-liquor-other State Hits: 4
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf 2018- 19, the amount of approved exceptions is $54.3 million. 7 Over the past ten fiscal years, the average share of approved exceptions that were used was roughly 30 percent. This percentage is applied as the utilization rate to project Homestead Estimates A recent amendment to the Pennsylvania Constitution revised the homestead exclusion by removing the limitation that the exclusion shall not exceed one-half of the median assessed value of all homestead property in a local taxing jurisdiction. The revised Hits: 4
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf and Revenue Proposals | Page 5 Data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) show that lower-income households spend a higher share of pre-tax income on cell phone services than higher-income households. 1 Specifically, the CES data indicate that the average household in the bottom income quintile spends roughly six times the share of income on cellular service than the average household in the top income quintile. This result demonstrates that the tax Hits: 4
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf cash flow. Due to the reduction in business sales, corporations will be motivated to retain cash by reducing dividends and share buybacks.  Corporate profits decline by 15 and 25 percent. This national profit series declined in 2007 (-9.5 percent revert to a level that is approximately five to six percent higher than CY 2019. Despite the assumed rapid V-shaped recovery, the level of income that results from that assumption is lower than it would have been in the absence Hits: 4
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf 9,620 Retirement Income 5 4.92% 1,223 1,305 1,390 1,480 1,573 1,668 State Share 3.07% 763 814 868 923 982 1,041 Local Share 1.85% 460 491 523 556 592 627 Retirement Exemption 6 4.92% 723 726 729 732 736 739 State Hits: 4
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf electricity generation in Pennsylvania, while nuclear power accounted for 32.0% and coal accounted for 9.5%. In 2018, those shares were 36% (natural gas), 39% (nuclear power) and 21% (coal). The final column of the table shows that Pennsylvania exported it generated in 2022. Wyoming and West Virginia, states with much smaller populations and lower electricity consumption, exported a higher share of generation. The adjacent map shows 2022 net exports for Pennsylvania, border states and states that belong to the PJM Hits: 4
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) to pre-fund (i.e., make advance payments) between 75% to 100% of their computed share of SERS’ unfunded actuarial liability (UAL). Agreements to make advance payments must be (1) entered into with SERS by December Table 1 lists the five largest eligible employers (based on UAL value as of December 31, 2019), their UAL, the share of those UALs within SERS and the minimum contribution if they made an advance payment. If all five employers participated Hits: 4
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf Income while partnership and S corporation income and capital gains comprise 1.4 percent. For the middle income group, those shares are 73.0 and 3.5 percent. For the high income group, the shares are 52.3 and 28.3 percent. The high income group reported 86.1 percent of total partnership and S Hits: 4
RB-2018-01.pdf 2017-18, the amount of approved exceptions is $99.5 million. 8 Over the past five fiscal years, the average share of approved exceptions that were used was roughly 30 percent. This percentage is applied as the utilization rate to project H E A recent amendment to the Pennsylvania Constitution revised the homestead exclusion by removing the limitation that the exclusion shall not exceed one-half of the median assessed value of all homestead property in a local taxing jurisdiction. The revised Hits: 4
RB 2019 RACP.pdf structures and facilities which could include sewer upgrades, parking decks, public buildings and recreational trails. Number of Sum of Average Share of Share of Type Grants Grants Award Grants Dollars Economic Development 362 $570 $1.6 51% 57% Educational Facility 110 137 1 Hits: 4
QRE_FY14-15.pdf 2015 Q2 FY 2014-15 Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Projection Financial Institution Taxes Bank Shares 0.7 1.3 269.2 5.0 276.2 Mutual Thrift Institutions 2.6 3.1 2.6 3.4 11 Oil and Gas Lease Fund (Act 126) Section 1605-E of the Fiscal Code provides that $95 million shall be transferred from the Oil and Gas Lease Fund to the General Fund in FY 2014-15. Prior Law Sections 1604-E Hits: 4
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf percent of school district funds for FY 2016-17. Table 2 groups school districts into four quartiles based on the share of funding provided by property taxes. For the top quartile, property taxes provided nearly two-thirds of total funding (average across the 125 districts in that group). For the bottom quartile, the average share was less than one-fifth. Table 3 displays estimates of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 60 or older Hits: 4
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf Force Participation Rate Age 65+ 18.7% Age 25‐44 83.2% 2017 8.Jun.2016 14 Expenditures as a Share of State GDP Long‐Term Expenditure Trends 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Expenditures 8.Jun 2020‐21 SERS PSERS Growth in Pension Contributions dollar amounts are in millions 8.Jun.2016 17 Revenues as a Share of State GDP Long‐Term Revenue Trends 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Revenues 8.Jun Hits: 4
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf Higher employee productivity. May 1, 2019 7 Profile of Non-Tipped PA Workers (2018) May 1, 2019 8 Hourly Rate Share of Jobs Share Part-Time Share Female 24 Years Old or Less Single, No Kids Under $8.00 2.0% 78.1% 56 Hits: 4
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf January 26, 2022 1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020-21) January 26, 2022 2 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Student Support Services 120 25.8% $1,577 9.1% Administration 82 17.6% 46 0.3% Special Education 56 Hits: 4
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf January 24, 2022 4 DLI Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020-21) January 24, 2022 5 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share UC Benefits 1,033 24.8% $151 14.9% Vocational Rehabilitation 870 20.9% 146 14.4% Disability Determination 661 Hits: 4
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_11_2023.pdf Department (PID) January 11, 2023 1 PID Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 21-22) January 11, 2023 2 Activities Amount Share Number Share Liq., Rehab. & Spec. Funds $221.8 89% 54 23% Financial Regulation 8.5 3 58 24 Administration 6.1 2 Hits: 4
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf April 27, 2021 4 PennDOT Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2019-20) April 27, 2021 5 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Highway and Bridge Maintenance 7,577 63.8% $1,595 20.9% Highway and Bridge Construction 2,601 21.9% Hits: 4
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf PBPP JCJC PCCD Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 22, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 - PBB Duties IFO shall develop PBB plans for all agencies.  Statute gives significant discretion.  Shall evaluate each agency program or line item.  Shall develop performance metrics (efficiency, output, outcome). Agencies shall submit information to Hits: 4
NGPR_2021_Q3.pdf gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale). The production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of unconventional production state. Pennsylvania production also comprised 18.7% of nationwide production through August, which would be the state’s highest recorded share for a full year. Rank County 2020 2021 Share Growth 2020 2021 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 1,224 1,197 Hits: 4
NGPR_2021_Q2.pdf gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale). The production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of unconventional production five state. Pennsylvania production also comprised 18.7% of nationwide production through May, which would be the state’s highest share on record for a full year. Rank County 2020 2021 Share Growth 2020 2021 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 806 791 Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf Pennsylvania News Nationwide News (717) 230-8293 | Rachel Carson State Office Building Harrisburg, PA | www.ifo.state.pa.us Could Shale Gas Lead To a Manufacturing Boom in Appalachia? A recent article from Forbes magazine discusses the production of shale gas in Pennsylvania and surrounding states and its potential impact on the economy and communities. The article notes that production Hits: 4
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf 25.4% Age 20-49 PA 37.8% US 39.8% Age 50-70 PA 27.7% US 25.6% share of population PA US Age 20 October 19, 2017 9 PA Ratio: Working Age / Retirees-Elderly Note: Ratio is equal taxable items 41% GF Tax Revenue is PIT Soc. Sec., Pensions and IRAs not taxed when received 2.4 Larger share of tax burden falls on smaller share of residents October 19, 2017 10 Components of PA Population Change Estimate Projections Hits: 4
MTR-2017-03.pdf the Commonwealth continually ranks second nationwide in the average debt per graduate with debt ($34,798) and third in the share of graduates with debt (71%). 2 The strong growth in auto and student loans, coupled with the weak growth in mortgage loans, have changed the composition of consumer debt. For Pennsylvania, the weak growth in mortgage debt drove down that share of total debt from 68% in 2010 to 61% in 2016. The share of auto loans grew from 7% to Hits: 4
MER-2015-04.pdf residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S Hits: 4
MER-2014-12.pdf residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S Hits: 4
MER-2014-01.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐ over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year ‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 4
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf foreign income), which will motivate certain firms to sell US debt and distribute those proceeds to shareholders through dividends or share buy backs. If interest rates climb significantly, it will have a negative impact on the national and state economies, especially that income will be spent and will enhance tax revenues. The size of the impact will depend upon (1) the share that is spent and not saved, (2) the share spent on taxable items, and (3) how quickly individuals respond to Hits: 4
House Budget Hearing Request.pdf Filer and Domestic Migration from 2013 to 2014 Number of Federal Tax Returns in/from Pennsylvania Net Migration as a share of total returns in 2014 Age Group of Primary Tax Filer In PA both 2013 and 2014 Outflow 2013 to 9,552 1,030,638 -2,323 -0.2% Number of Exemptions on Federal Tax Returns Net Migration as a share of total exemptions in 2014 Age Group of Primary Tax Filer In PA both 2013 and 2014 Outflow 2013 to Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf Factors Motivate the Result Theme: Short-Term Savings, but Long-Term Costs.  Medicaid expansion: full phase-in of state share (10%) by 2020.  JUA Loan ($200 million) and PlanCon (no appropriation this year). Economy Hits Soft Patch in Third 506 13,935 13,935 Note: thousands of residents. 11/15/2016 12 Regional Population Comparison Levels (000s) and Growth Shares and Median Age 2010 2015 AAGR < 20 65+ Median Delaware 900 946 1.0% 24.3 17.0 40.0 Hits: 4
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 4
Pensions 1987) to ensure a collective bargaining contract or a collective bargaining arbitration award rendered after the adoption of a plan shall not in any manner violate, expand or diminish the recovery plan's provisions, except under specific conditions for arbitration settlements in existence in a municipality or an arbitration award in effect in a municipality prior to a consolidation or merger shall remain effective after consolidation or merger until it expires. Legislative Session 2009 - 2010 Act 2009 - 44 (House Bill Number 1828 Hits: 4
Independent Fiscal Office FY 2050-51, the Commonwealth will use $46.5 billion in General Fund revenues (2.3%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow 05, 2022 Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be Hits: 4
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf 2019-20, the amount of approved exceptions is $52.9 million. 7 Over the past ten fiscal years, the average share of approved exceptions that were used was roughly 30 percent. This percentage is applied as the utilization rate to project Occupied Estimates A recent amendment to the Pennsylvania Constitution revised the homestead exclusion by removing the limitation that the exclusion shall not exceed one-half of the median assessed value of all homestead property in a local taxing jurisdiction. The revised Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf profit margins are contracting from record levels in CY 2022. For that year, corporate non-financial domestic profits as a share of GDP was 8.0%, the highest share since 1968. (Note: PNC does not forecast corporate profits, so the February forecast from the Congres- sional Budget Office (CBO Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf cuts are national estimates published by the Joint Committee on Taxation and apportioned to Pennsylvania (3.5 percent share). 7 The estimate reflects provisions that impact individual loss limits, the relaxation of the limit on interest deductions and the employee retention for eligible expenses such as rent, mortgage, utilities and certain employee compensation. It is likely that a significant share of loan amounts will be forgiven. 8 5 The 1.1 million figure represents the four-week average for continued claims for Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf to 16 weeks, regardless of prior earnings  $12/hr wage earner moves from ~50% to ~175% replacement rate High share of claimants are low-wage or part-time  Replacement rate for them is far above 100%  Same holds to July 15  March and June quarterly, April 15 final payment | ~$1.5 billion shift Taxpayers can delay employer share of federal payroll taxes  Delay 50% to no later than Dec 2021 and 50% no later than Dec 2022 Hits: 3
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdf of net domestic migration to state residents (April 2020) and the state rank based on that ratio. For Pennsylvania, the share is -0.1% (-16 / 13,003), which ranks 29 th across all states for the two-year time period. Most contraction across all states (not shown). April July Total Int'l Domestic Migration State 2020 2022 Change Natural Migrate Number Share Rank Idaho 1,839 1,939 100 10 3 89 4.8% 1 Montana 1,084 1,123 39 -3 Hits: 3
RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdf return. For 2020, 13.4% of UC income was reported by filers with more than $100,000 in AGI. That share excludes amounts not reported on tax returns ($12.1 billion). If unreported amounts were received by residents with less than $100,000 in AGI, then the share falls to 8.6%. Because there is no income threshold to be eligible for UC, high income taxpayers qualified for Hits: 3
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf homeowners) and (3) transfer receipts (e.g., Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, various income maintenance benefits). For the entire state, the shares of these income sources were as follows: resident earnings (63.0%), dividends, interest and rent (17.6%) and transfer receipts (19.4%). Figure 3 displays the share of county personal income comprised of resident earnings, or active income attributable to the provision of labor services (wages, salaries Hits: 3
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Paycheck Protection Program Loans to PA Businesses Number Share Amount Share of Average of Firms of Firms $ millions Amount Amount Loan Amount Under $150k 147,469 85.0% $5,113 24 Hits: 3
RB-2017-5.pdf also motivate the size of the differential between the statutory and effective tax rates. For example, states with a larger share of residents at the higher end of the income distribution likely save a higher share of income, thereby reducing the effective tax rate. Independent Fiscal Office Page 6 State Comparisons Table 4 ranks states based Hits: 3
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf beyond are forecasted by IFO using data from the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry and IHS Markit. Property Tax Shares by Age Group March 1, 2019 21 Age Group Household Share Property Tax Share 60 or over 45.50% 43.80% 65 or over 32.90% 31.30% 70 or over Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf 8 -168.5 One-Third Net Corporate -30.4 -29.5 Tax Cut Realized -219.2 -198.1 Estimated PA Share 3.5% 3.5% Increase in PA Disposable Income +7.7 +6.9 Note: Corporations use revenues from the tax cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf March 9, 2022 1 PDE Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 2020-21) March 9, 2022 2 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Student Support Services 120 25.8% $1,577 9.1% Administration 82 17.6% 46 0.3% Special Education 56 Hits: 3
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf million per annum). PIT is personal income tax. SUT is sales-use tax. Percentages that appear in parentheses represent the share of new revenues from the associated tax law change. 18 19.May.2017 Statutory Tax Incidence Shares Total Individual Business Sales Tax 100.0% 86.5% 13.5% Personal Income 100.0% 90.0% 10.0% Property Hits: 3
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf cuts are national estimates published by the Joint Committee on Taxation and apportioned to Pennsylvania (3.5 percent share). 7 The estimate reflects provisions that impact individual loss limits, the relaxation of the limit on interest deductions and the employee retention for eligible expenses such as rent, mortgage, utilities and certain employee compensation. It is likely that a significant share of loan amounts will be forgiven. 8  State support reflects funds allocated to states to support various state and local government Hits: 3
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf to 16 weeks, regardless of prior earnings  $12/hr wage earner moves from ~50% to ~175% replacement rate High share of claimants are low-wage or part-time  Replacement rate for them is far above 100%  Same holds to July 15  March and June quarterly, April 15 final payment | ~$1.4 billion shift Taxpayers can delay employer share of federal payroll taxes  Delay 50% to no later than Dec 2021 and 50% no later than Dec 2022 Hits: 3
NGPR_2022_Q4.pdf activity in the Commonwealth. Production volume and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale) and data used by this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of total production in Pennsylvania. The CY 2021, Pennsylvania is the only major producing state to record negative growth for CY 2022. Rank County 2021 2022 Share Growth 2021 2022 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 1,619 1,556 20.9% -3.9% 1,708 1,820 16 Hits: 3
NGPR_2022_Q3.pdf activity in the Commonwealth. Production volume and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale) and data used by this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of total production in Pennsylvania. The 2021, Pennsylvania is the only major producing state to record negative annual growth through September 2022. Rank County 2021 2022 Share Growth 2021 2022 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 1,197 1,169 20.9% -2.3% 1,681 1,778 16 Hits: 3
NGPR_2022_Q2.pdf activity in the Commonwealth. Production volume and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale) and data used by this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of total production in Pennsylvania. The major producing state to record negative annual growth in the first five months of CY 2022. Rank County 2021 2022 Share Growth 2021 2022 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 791 775 21.0% -2.1% 1,644 1,746 16.4% 6 Hits: 3
NGPR_2021_Q4.pdf gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale). The production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99% of total production top five for the first time in 2021 after recording consecutive years of significant production growth. Rank County 2020 2021 Share Growth 2020 2021 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 1,635 1,619 21.4% -1.0% 1,598 1,708 16 Hits: 3
NGPR_2020_Q4.pdf gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale). The production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99 percent of unconventional Alaska, recorded a deceleration in production growth or a decline in production volume compared to 2019. Rank County 2019 2020 Share Growth 2019 2020 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 1,664 1,635 23.1% -1.7% 1,499 1,598 16 Hits: 3
NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale). The production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99 percent of unconventional Alaska, recorded a deceleration in production growth or a decline in production volume compared to 2019. Rank County 2019 2020 Share Growth 2019 2020 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 1,245 1,224 23.4% -1.7% 1,458 1,578 16 Hits: 3
NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale). The production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99 percent of unconventional Alaska recorded a deceleration in production growth or a decline in production volume compared to 2019. Rank County 2019 2020 Share Growth 2019 2020 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 822 806 23.1% -1.9% 1,401 1,545 16.0% 10 Hits: 3
NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf gas activity in the Commonwealth. Production and well count data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional sources (e.g., shale). The production and well count data throughout this report focus on horizontal wells, which account for over 99 percent of Among the top five producing states, Texas recorded the strongest gains in 2019 (15.9 percent). Rank County 2019 2020 Share Growth 2019 2020 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 409 404 23.0% -1.1% 1,364 1,500 15.8% 10 Hits: 3
NGPR-2017Q4.pdf County Production Volume (bcf) Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year 2017 Metrics Calendar Year 2017 Metrics Rank County 2016 2017 Share Growth 2016 2017 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 1,210.8 1,304.9 24.4% 7.8% 1,049 1,194 15.1% 13 Hits: 3
NGPR-2017Q3.pdf Volume (bcf) Number of Producing Wells Year-to-Date 2017 Metrics Year-to-Date 2017 Metrics Rank County 2016 2017 Share Growth 2016 2017 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 902.7 966.1 24.4% 7.0% 1,017 1,151 15.1% 13.2% 2 Hits: 3
NGPR-2017Q2.pdf Volume (bcf) Number of Producing Wells Year-to-Date 2017 Metrics Year-to-Date 2017 Metrics Rank County 2016 2017 Share Growth 2016 2017 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 609.7 649.2 24.8% 6.5% 983 1,122 15.1% 14.1% 2 Washington Hits: 3
NGPR-2017Q1.pdf County Production Volume (bcf) Number of Producing Wells Year-to-Date 2017 Metrics Year-to-Date Rank County 2016 2017 Share Growth 2016 2017 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 310.1 313.0 24.0% 0.9% 956 1,068 14.9% 11.7% 2 Washington Hits: 3
NGPR-2016Q4.pdf County Production Volume (bcf) Number of Producing Wells Calendar Year 2016 Metrics Calendar Year 2016 Metrics Rank County 2016 2015 Share Growth 2016 2015 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 1,210.8 1,127.2 23.8% 7.4% 1,049 958 14.6% 9.5% Hits: 3
NGPR-2016Q3.pdf Volume (bcf) Number of Producing Wells Year-to-Date 2016 Metrics Year-to-Date 2016 Metrics Rank County 2016 2015 Share Growth 2016 2015 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 902.8 832.0 23.7% 8.5% 1,017 916 14.5% 11.0% 2 Washington Hits: 3
NGPR-2016Q2.pdf County Production Volume (bcf) Number of Producing Wells Year-to-Date 2016 Metrics Year-to-Date Rank County 2016 2015 Share Growth 2016 2015 Share Growth 1 Susquehanna 609.7 555.0 24.0% 9.8% 983 875 14.4% 12.3% 2 Washington 404 Hits: 3
MRU_2023_05.pdf 424.4 million, which fell below projections by $24.8 million (-5.5%). This result was due to a larger share of final payments for tax year 2022 arriving in April instead of May, which resulted in a shortfall of -$54 expected May transfer was received in April), realty transfer (-$19.3 million) and utility property (-$12.1 million, a larger share of payments were received in April) tax revenues. FYTD other tax revenues are $6.04 billion, $39.3 million (0 Hits: 3
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf section. FY 2019-20 Corporate Net Income -$14.1 Gross Receipts -3.2 Insurance Premiums -5.7 Bank Shares -3.9 Sales and Use - Non-motor -0.1 Cigarette -115.3 Personal Income - Withholding -82.2 Personal Income - Annual -14.1 act provides that “net gains”, “net losses” and “dividends” for purposes of the Pennsylvania personal income tax (PIT) shall not include gains, income or losses which are excluded from tax under the provisions of the Federal Opportunity Zones Program. The provisions Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf are projected to record the largest percentage declines. Across the six regions of the state outlined in the model, the share of municipalities at risk for cash insolvency over the two-year period ranges from 3% to 8% with the highest share of municipalities at risk in the northeast and southwest regions. U.S. Personal Income Records Strong Growth in April On Hits: 3
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf to $2.0 billion (less clear).  Forecast Assumes a Continuation to FY 2015‐16. • OPEC maintains output. U.S. shale operations (TX, ND). • Weak global demand: EU and China. 28.Jan.2015 10 Savings from Gas Price Drop Two Key 18 Increases Decreases Corporate Net Income $230 Non‐Tax ‐$160 Sales and Use 160 Personal Income ‐55 Inheritance 100 Bank Shares ‐15 All Other 30 All Other ‐40 Subtotal 520 Subtotal ‐270 Dollar amounts are in millions. Net Change: +$250 million Hits: 3
MER-2014-11.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 3 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 4 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/Pennsylvania Association Hits: 3
MER-2014-10.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 3
MER-2014-06.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 3
MER-2014-03.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐ over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year ‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 3
IFO ppt.pdf 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Demographic Outlook Interim Population Projections thousands of residents Levels Share Total Decade Age Cohort 2010 2020 2010 2020 Growth 0 - 19 Years 3,179 3,124 25.0% 24.0% 5% 6.0% 6.5% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 General Fund Revenue Trend as Share of State Personal Income Personal Income Tax 2.80% to 3.07% CSFT phase-out various years Cigarette Tax $0 Hits: 3
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf 2012 Demographic Outlook The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 9 15.Nov.2012 Age Number Residents (000s) Decade Growth Rate Share of Population Cohort 2000 2010 2020 2000-10 2010-20 2000 2010 2020 0-19 3,270 3,179 3 12,702 13,129 3.4% 3.4% 100% 100% 100% Pennsylvania Population by Decade and Age Cohort Demographic Outlook Share of Population Growth Rate Area/Age Cohort 2000 2010 2020 2000-10 2010-20 Pennsylvania 0-19 26.6% 25 Hits: 3
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf the minimum wage is $11.60/hr. Profile of Non-Tipped PA Workers (2018) May 15, 2019 8 Hourly Rate Share of Jobs Share Part-Time Share Female 24 Years Old or Less Single, No Kids Under $8.00 2.0% 78.1% 56 Hits: 3
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 Age 0-19 PA 23.6% US 25.4% share of population November 16, 2017 12 Age 20-49 PA 37.8% US 39.8% Age 50-70 PA 27 Non-pension personnel costs are included in "other." $9 $1,815 $1,565 $1,252 $1,029 $1,109 Pensions Share of GF Expenditures November 16, 2017 32 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12 Hits: 3
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf from COVID-19. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. More Residents Working Offsets Demographics February 19, 2021 5 Share Employed Age Group 2010 2019 Change 19 to 24 51.8% 57.7% +5.8% 25 to 34 70.0% 22.5% +3.7% ALL 57.2% 60.4% +3.1% Note: Excludes jobs held by residents under age 19. Shares are number working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force Hits: 3
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf the long run. •Smoothing contributions cannot make risk go away. Mature plans (e.g., PA) tend to have greater risk. Shared-risk provisions might slightly dampen incentives that favor risk taking. •PA and most other states need risk-taking to work are more affected by investment risk and timing of investment returns than less-mature plans. PA plans are very mature. •Shared-risk provisions shift some risk from govts to workers and retirees. Might also slightly dampen incentives that favor risk taking Hits: 3
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf receipts from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. 2 Factors that can impact growth rates are (1) the share of payments made in the discount, base and penalty periods, (2) late/delinquent payments from prior years and (3) changes Occupied Estimates A recent amendment to the Pennsylvania Constitution revised the homestead exclusion by removing the limitation that the exclusion shall not exceed one-half of the median assessed value of all homestead property in a local taxing jurisdiction. The revised Hits: 3
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf Tax for Homeowners An amendment to the Pennsylvania Constitution revised the homestead exclusion by removing the limitation that the exclusion shall not exceed one-half of the median assessed value of all homestead property in a local taxing jurisdiction. The revised to exclude from taxation an amount based on the assessed value of homestead property. The exclusions authorized by this clause shall not exceed 100% of the assessed value of each homestead property within a local taxing jurisdiction. A local taxing authority Hits: 2
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf exceptions, the Add-Back does not limit the Department of Revenue’s authority to deny deductions resulting from fraudulent or sham transactions. The Add-Back refers to direct or indirect costs or expense deductions claimed by a PA Corporate Taxpayer as wage. In nearly all cases, these comparisons focus on the food service sector, because that sector has a relatively large share of workers that would be directly affected by a higher minimum wage. For the FY 2020-21 analysis of revenue Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf be similar or exceed those for items subject to tax. This projected reversal will constrain SUT collections as a greater share of consumer income is used for purchases of non-taxable goods and services. A related trend has been strong consumer 2022 +1.3% YOY nominal -6.5% YOY real nominal real Jan 2020 = 1.00 Economic Outlook | Page 11 Pennsylvania share is 4%, then homeowners cashed out roughly $10 billion of home equity through refi- nancings. 4 Due to rising interest Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf be similar or exceed those for items subject to tax. This projected reversal will constrain SUT collections as a greater share of consumer income is used for purchases of non-taxable goods and services. Figure 1.2 Cumulative Growth Rates Since U.S., Freddie Mac estimates that $248 billion in existing equity was cashed out in CY 2021. If the Pennsylvania share is 4%, then homeowners cashed out roughly $10 billion of home equity through refi- nancings. 3 Due to rising interest Hits: 2
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf Scranton 4,370,540 -3,320,000 Selinsgrove Area 668,238 -508,000 Seneca Valley 1,221,734 -928,000 Shade-Central City 194,856 -148,000 Shaler Area 2,040,755 -1,550,000 Shamokin Area 351,639 -267,000 Shanksville-Stonycreek 172,440 -131,000 September Hits: 2
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf the mailing address from the PPP Freedom of Information Act dataset published by the Small Business Administration to calculate the share of PPP business loans to each county. This share was then applied to the BEA statewide total of $5.2 billion to estimate county-level breakouts. These amounts do Hits: 2
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf The COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on state employment and labor force participation rates (i.e., the share of residents working or actively seeking employment). For Pennsylvania, data for December 2021 show that payroll employment fell by 280 in 2021 Q2 and Q3 at the highest levels recorded for that series. 1 The employment-population ratio is the share of residents employed and is an alternative measure to the labor force participation rate. Some analysts prefer that metric because Hits: 2
RB-2019-01.pdf Research Brief 2019-1 January 2019 2018 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published adjusted for statewide wet and dry gas production. It should be noted that many producers hedge prices for a large share of their production (e.g., futures contracts). 5. The annual ETR represents the average rate for all wells operating in Hits: 2
PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf rate over the time period. Source: Historical data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. Income and Property Tax Shares by Income Level March 13, 2020 10 All Homeowners Age 65+ Homeowners Income Group Income Prop Tax Burden Income Prop Total 100.0% 100.0% 3.4% 100.0% 100.0% 4.2% Note: Income and Property Tax percentages are shares of total for each group. Burden is ratio of Property Tax to Income. Income excludes any capital gains. Source: U Hits: 2
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf Pension Contributions: SERS and PSERS. • SERS up $131 million (25%) in FY 2015-16. • PSERS up $592 million (51%, state share only).  More Subtle: Rapidly Aging Population. • Age 65 and older expands by 14.9% through 2020. • Under age 65 2.0 billion (less clear). Forecast Assumes Continuation to FY 2015-16. • OPEC maintains output. But, pullback in U.S. shale drilling. • Weak global demand: EU and China. 12.Feb.2015 18 Savings from Gas Price Drop Consumers: Direct Sales and Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf 5 One-Third Net Corporate (see note) -30.4 -29.5 Tax Cut Realized -219.2 -198.1 Estimated PA Share 3.5% 3.5% Increase in PA Disposable Income 7.7 6.9 Note: Corporations use revenues from the tax cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf 5 One-Third Net Corporate (see note) -30.4 -29.5 Tax Cut Realized -219.2 -198.1 Estimated PA Share 3.5% 3.5% Increase in PA Disposable Income 7.7 6.9 Note: Corporations use revenues from the tax cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds Hits: 2
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf Age 65+ 2,417 2,586 +169 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. Establishment survey excludes self-employed. Participation rate is share age 16+ working or actively looking for work. Data for Q1 includes January and February only. Source: U.S. Bureau by IFO. PA Labor Force Participation Rate Recovers April 19, 2023 6 each +1.0 ppt worth ~100k workers LFPR = share of adults age 16+ working or looking for work LFPRs have returned to pre-COVID rates, except age 65+ large Hits: 2
PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf employer contributions include $825 million prepayment in unfunded liability from The Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education. Pension Funding as Share of Total General Fund Revenues July 13, 2021 2 FYE SERS PSERS Total Annual Growth Share of Revenue 2016 $665 $1,719 $2,384 -- 7.7% 2017 784 2,064 2,848 19.5% 9.0 Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf wages, avg wage $50k 11 states offer some form of Brownfield Redevelopment Credit ▪ Roughly half offer credits that offset a share of direct remediation costs ▪ PA and DE offer job tax credits to increase attractiveness of site ▪ PA only state to More data needed to facilitate a formal economic analysis ▪ Alternative: “break even” analysis | standard approach used by many states ▪ What share of jobs need to be incentivized by the credit to break even? ▪ Some jobs that receive credit may have occurred Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf Revenue (DOR) January 10, 2023 1 DOR Actual Spend and FTEs (FY 21-22) January 10, 2023 2 Activities Amount Share Number Share Lottery $668.5 55% 259 16% PTRR 230.1 19 90 6 Tax Administration 192.3 16 478 29 Enforcement Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf cleaner environment April 26, 2021 1 Using Economic Metrics to Assess Progress Economic impact analysis has 3 key steps ▪ What share of spending is incentivized by the tax credit? ▪ What type of spending and industries are affected? ▪ Use IMPLAN to estimate April 26, 2021 2 Some Notes on the Return on Investment (ROI) What does the Gross ROI represent? ▪ Gross ROI: share of tax credit that is “self-financed” ▪ Most tax credits have a Gross ROI < 0.25 ▪ This is true even Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf K-12 Education Activity, add a substate metric analyzing, by quartiles based upon poverty level, students of color as a share of enrollment, and local tax effort, how the basic education funding distribution would shift on a per pupil basis if ii)(A) of Act 14 of 1949) by quartiles based upon median household income and students of color as a share of enrollment 7. In the “Comparison of School District Per Student Expenditures to Standardized Test Scores” subsection, use the plain Hits: 2
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf Age 65+ 2,362 2,537 +174 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. Establishment survey excludes self-employed. Participation rate is share age 16+ working or actively looking for work. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Payroll Job Gains/Losses PA Labor Force Participation Rate Declines During COVID March 16, 2023 6 Growth of age 65+ pushes LFPR down LFPR = share of adults age 16+ working or looking for work Pre-COVID LFPRs by Age Group 25-54 82.5% 55- Hits: 2
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf Age 65+ 2,362 2,537 +174 Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. Establishment survey excludes self-employed. Participation rate is share age 16+ working or actively looking for work. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. PA Payroll Job Gains/Losses PA Labor Force Participation Rate Recovers, Then Stagnates March 13, 2023 6 Rapid growth age 65+ pushes LFPR down LFPR = share of adults age 16+ working or looking for work Flat LFPR implies that more workers <65 joining labor force to Hits: 2
NGIFE-2018.pdf Research Brief 2018-2 January 2018 2017 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published adjusted for statewide wet and dry gas production. It should be noted that many producers hedge prices for a large share of their production (e.g., futures contracts). 4. The annual ETR represents the average rate for all wells operating in Hits: 2
NGIFE-2016.pdf Research Brief 2017-1 January 2017 2016 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published adjusted for statewide wet and dry gas production. It should be noted that many producers hedge prices for a large share of their production (e.g., futures contracts). 4. An alternative to the annual average ETR is the lifetime ETR, which Hits: 2
MTR-2016-11.pdf production with less new drilling. After the first few years of a well’s life, production declines dramatically. A typical shale gas well in Pennsylvania might yield 40% of its output in the first two years. This implies that more new Drilling Employees (Left) Production (Right) Sources: Department of Labor and Industry (employees), Department of Environmental Protection (production and new wells, shale gas only). Notes: Employee data are averages per quarter. New well data are totals per quarter. Production data are totals Hits: 2
MTR-2015-09.pdf third of the total dollar amount (-$356 million) reported on tax returns. Those aged 65 and older comprised the same share of net migrants (16.5 percent), but a much smaller share of the dollar amount reported on tax returns (-$162 million). These age classifications are based on the age of the Hits: 2
MTR-2015-07.pdf strength of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines the LFPR as the labor force as a share of the civilian non-institutional population. The labor force includes those currently employed and those looking for work. The higher the LFPR, the larger share of the working-age population that is working or seeking employment. Since 1999, Pennsylvania LFPRs have fallen for teens and Hits: 2
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Marcellus Shale Coalition Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 31, 2022 1 Overview A sizable budget surplus this year ▪ Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Approximately other states by a significant margin. ▪ PA exports are 77% higher than the second highest state (Alabama, not shown). ▪ The share of PA electricity generated that is exported has grown significantly in recent years. From 24% in 2018 to 35% in Hits: 2
MRU-2023-03.pdf inheritance (+$30.6 million) and insurance premiums (+$27.5 million) tax revenues and partially offset by a shortfall in bank shares (-$91.1 million) tax revenues. FYTD other tax revenues are $5.33 billion, $106.5 million (2.0%) above projections insurance premiums (+$60.8 million) tax collections, and is partially offset by shortfalls in realty transfer (-$81.0 million), bank shares (-$82.4 million) and cigarette (-$58.7 million) tax revenues. Non-tax collections for March were $241.9 million, which Hits: 2
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf found in the next section. FY 2018-19 Corporate Net Income -$7.5 Insurance Premiums -2.0 Bank Shares -1.8 Personal Income - Withholding -25.1 Personal Income - Annual -7.5 Treasury 30.4 Total -13.5 Table 1 General Fund reve- nues by $18.8 million: corporate net income ($7.5 million), insurance premiums ($2.0 million), bank shares ($1.8 million) and personal income-annual ($7.5 million). Author: matthew Creator: Microsoft® Word 2016 CreationDate: 2018-07-30 18:55 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf what is produced) and most compensation is wage expenses. Data from the BEA show that wages comprise a much larger share of GDP for service sectors of the state economy (e.g., healthcare-social assistance at 84%) than production sectors (e JOLTS). The job openings rate (number of job openings / (total employment + job openings)) measures the availability of employment and the share of those openings that are filled. For the Northeast region, the job openings rate climbed to 5.4% in March Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf Index (CPI), gasoline purchases comprise 3.0% of total purchases in the CPI basket (includes rent imputations to homeowners). That share is based on data from 2019 to 2020, prior to the dramatic increase in price. Academic research finds that consumers prices in the short-term, and the significant price increase has likely caused most consumers to shift a notably higher share of their spending to gasoline and away from taxable and non-taxable discretionary purchases. Monthly Economic Update June 2022 Central Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf Q3, 27% were cash-out refinancings and the residual was rate and term adjustments only. (By comparison, the cash-out share was closer to 50% in 2019 Q3.) The estimated average cash out was $51,600 and total equity withdrawn was 2007. Other data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (proprietary) show that Pennsylvania comprises 3.1% of national refinance applications. That share implies an estimate of $1.2 billion (3.1% * $37 billion) of home equity withdrawn in 2020 Q3 by Pennsylvania Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf utilities (22.6%), (2) education-healthcare services (16.7%) and (3) leisure-hospitality (15.9%). Continued claims show double-digit shares for six industries, with the largest shares in the trade, transportation, and utilities (19.3%) and construction (16.9%) sectors. Pandemic Leads to Sharp Decline in Pennsylvania Hits: 2
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf consumers with a credit report. All Other includes personal loans and other miscellaneous lines of credit. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total consumer debt for 2016 Q3. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 25.Jan.2017 16 PA Consumer 4 0.0 0.0 Digital Downloads 45.7 59.2 80.2 112.2 34.5 53.0 Bank Shares 21.1 22.5 21.1 22.5 0.0 0.0 Table Games 17.6 18.2 17.6 Hits: 2
MER-2015-06.pdf change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S Hits: 2
MER-2015-02.pdf residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S Hits: 2
MER-2015-01.pdf residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Sources: 1/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/U.S Hits: 2
MER-2014-09.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 2
MER-2014-08.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 2
MER-2014-05.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 2
MER-2014-04.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 2
MER-2014-02.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐ over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year ‐over‐year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 2
MER-2013-12.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year -over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year -over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Sources: 1/ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2/ Federal Housing Hits: 2
MER-2013-11.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 2
jackson ppt.pdf 2007). • PA will also return to pre-recession peak employment earlier than US average • PA – 2013Q2 vs. US – 2014Q3 • Marcellus Shale natural gas production has been a big jobs booster. • Natural resources/mining and manufacturing the most obvious sectors. • Many related No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. • Marcellus Shale development will continue to generate both direct and indirect job growth, although rate of growth will slow. • Persistent low natural Hits: 2
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf 2017‐3 July 2017 Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are cubic feet using Pennsylvania‐speci Ðic heat content. It should be noted that many producers hedge prices for a large share of their production (e.g., swaps). 4. Post‐production cost estimates for wet and dry wells are informed by a Hits: 2
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf 0.9% 2020 Q2 -17.7% -13.9% -7.3% -4.7% -7.1% -5.6% -6.4% -7.2% Share of 2019 Q2 Jobs 2.4% 9.4% 21.5% 20.0% 20.8% 19.0% 6.9% 100.0% Share of 2020 Q2 Job Loss 5.8% 18.1% 21.9% 13.1% 20.3% 14.8% 6.1% 100 Hits: 2
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf 5 4.92% 1,272 1,338 1,412 1,495 1,583 1,677 1,772 1,865 State Share 3.07% 793 835 881 933 988 1,046 1,106 1,164 Local Share 1.85% 478 503 531 562 595 631 666 701 Options to Fund School District Property Tax Elimination Table 2 Hits: 2
House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf preliminary. Final figures are not yet available and will affect UAL and employer contribution rates once finalized. Pension Funding as Share of Total General Fund Revenues August 19, 2021 3 FY Ends SERS PSERS Total Annual Growth Share of Revenue 2016 $665 $1,719 $2,384 -- 7.7% 2017 784 2,064 2,848 19.5% 9.0 Hits: 2
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf Year Outlook Report (November 15).  Annual Revenue Conference (January 31).  Two Studies: (1) Sales and Use Tax, (2) Shared Risk Pension Contributions.  Performance measures for executive agencies.  Establish office web-site. 10.Jul.2012 4 2012 GPNP 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PA, All Debt US, All Debt PA, Mortgage Debt 2010 Q1 4.1% Share of Debt “Seriously Delinquent” Source: Federal Reserve Board of New York 10.Jul.2012 16 2012 GPNP Conference $200 $300 Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf LFPR) Declines November 15, 2022 6 LFPR down ~1.5 ppts ~120,000 workers ~50% demographics ~50% other factors LFPR = share of adults age 16+ working or looking for work Lower LFPR + contracting demographic = worker shortage 59 60 61 62 63 Q1 = 1.00 +49% +67% pre-COVID economy Tax Revenues Surge During COVID November 15, 2022 13 18-19 to Share of GDP 21-22 18-19 21-22 Diff PA Nominal GDP ($ billions) 12.6% General Fund Tax Revenue 27 Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf from COVID-19. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. More Residents Working Offsets Demographics January 21, 2021 3 Share Employed Age Group 2010 2019 Change 19 to 24 51.8% 57.7% +5.8% 25 to 34 70.0% 22.5% +3.7% ALL 57.2% 60.4% +3.1% Note: Excludes jobs held by residents under age 19. Shares are number working in age group divided by number of residents in age group. Figures are lower than labor force Hits: 2
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf Repayments Student Loan Debt (federal) ~$70 billion Number Borrowers 1.83 million Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Amount $640 million Share That Defer 80% Monthly Payment Deferred $510 million Monthly Sales Tax Impact ~$10 million Moratorium extended to May 1, 2022 2% 29.5% 2.2% $4,175 Note: Percentages of PA income and property taxes represents that age group’s share of statewide household income and property taxes paid. Burden is ratio of property tax to household income. Income excludes any Hits: 2
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Note: 2021 Q3 Excess is difference compared to average for 2018 Q3 and 2019 Q3. Source: Federal Reserve Board. PA share is ~4% about $35 billion likely not stimulus most is spent a direct increase in money supply FY 2021-22 Repayments Student Loan Debt (federal) ~$70 billion Number Borrowers 1.83 million Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Amount $640 million Share That Defer 80% Monthly Payment Deferred $510 million Monthly Sales Tax Impact ~$10 million Moratorium extended to May 1, 2022 Hits: 2
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf 28.5% -3.0% Total Non-Withheld 4.8% -2.2% 9.3% 8.6% 4.0% 5.4% Quarterly Share Total 57.8% 57.2% 58.3% 50.7% 54.0% Withholding 2.3% 2.4% 4.2% 4.3% 7% 9.2% 11.9% 1.8% -- Total -9.9% 1.3% 8.5% 14.3% 1.4% 3.5% Share Finals 40.3% 40.4% 40.7% 39.8% 40.0% Corporate Domestic Profits -1.5% -6.0% -1.0% Hits: 2
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf 8 -168.5 One-Third Net Corporate -30.4 -29.5 Tax Cut Realized -219.2 -198.1 Estimated PA Share 3.5% 3.5% Increase PA Disposable Income 7.7 6.9 Note: Corporations use revenues from the tax cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds Hits: 2
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 2
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 2
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 2
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 2
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7 by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 3.0% -0.1% 4.9% 2012.2 2 Hits: 2
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7 by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 3.0% -0.1% 4.9% 2012.2 2 Hits: 2
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7 by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 3.1% -0.1% 4.9% 2012.2 3 Hits: 2
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7 by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 PA Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 3.1% -0.1% 4.9% 2012.2 3 Hits: 2
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 Delinquent Debt Share of U.S. consumer debt more than 90 days delin- quent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 Delinquent Debt Share of PA consumer debt more than 90 days delin- quent. 3 2012.1 3.1% -0.1% 4.9% 2012 Hits: 2
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. Data are from the Federal Housing Financing Authority. Delinquent Debt Share of US consumer debt that is more than 90 days delinquent. Data are from the Federal Reserve Bank of New Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. Data are from the Federal Housing Financing Authority. Delinquent Debt Share of PA consumer debt that is more than 90 days delinquent. Data are from the Federal Reserve Bank of New Hits: 2
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf www.statereforum.org/user/register  Network with state health policy thinkers and doers. The online community numbers 4500+  Share ideas and get feedback in a discussion. Topics include fiscal analysis, benefits analysis and more  Find documents and expert Hits: 1
Test_document.pdf Test document Author: Shane Bordner Creator: Microsoft® Word 2016 CreationDate: 2018-12-28 14:21:24 ModDate: 2018-12-28 14:21:24 Producer Hits: 1
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf School estimates a reduction of $169 billion. 1 Based on other federal tax data, the IFO estimates that the Pennsylvania share of the federal individual income tax cut is roughly 3.5 percent. If those estimates are accurate, then it implies Hits: 1
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf primarily support the Apprenticeship and Training Office and Industry Partnerships program, which facilitate on-the-job training and industry cohorts sharing best practices. • Spending on Partnerships for Regional Economic Performance increased by $3.5 million (52%) in FY 2021-22 to Hits: 1
SR2017-05.pdf 1 27.4 York 27.2 17.0 Juniata 31.1 23.4 Statewide 29.3 19.4 Table 2 Share of Householders Aged 65 or Older Source: 2011-2015 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau. Calculations by the IFO Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf rates are a function of (1) service populations, (2) inflation and (3) various technical factors (e.g., an increased state share under the FMAP rate used to reimburse Medicaid costs or a shift in expenditures between funding sources). From FY 2022- Hits: 1
RTR-2014-08.pdf motor vehicle deposits were 4.8% and 6.8%, respectively.  Corporate tax revenues, which typically comprise a relatively small share of August receipts, declined by 17.5% over August 2013. Fiscal year-to-date and recent twelve- month growth rates Hits: 1
RTR-2014-05.pdf remittances have been flat. • Financial institutions tax revenues increased by $30 million from the prior year due to atypical bank shares tax deposits of $37 million. Nearly all of those deposits were in response to Department of Revenue guidance intended to Hits: 1
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf and Stabilizes January 24, 2023 4 LFPR down ~1.5 ppts ~120,000 workers ~50% demographics ~50% other factors LFPR = share of adults age 16+ working or looking for work Lower LFPR + contracting demographic = worker shortage 59 60 61 62 63 Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error shrank at the January mid-year update (-$397 million) and May update ($60 million). Fiscal Year 2014-15 Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf March 25, 2021, the Federal Reserve announced that banks would be allowed to resume normal levels of dividend payouts and share repurchases as of June 30. Payouts had been restricted as a precaution during the pandemic. ▪ Pennsylvania existing home values increased Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error declined at the January mid-year update (-$397 million) and May update ($60 million). Revenue Estimate Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf growth and unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error declined at the January mid-year update (-$397 million) and May update ($60 million). Revenue Estimate Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error declined at the January mid-year update (-$397 million) and May update ($60 million). Revenue Estimate Performance | Page Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error declined at the January mid-year update (-$397 million) and May update ($60 million). Revenue Estimate Performance | Page Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf unexpected year-over-year reductions in several revenue sources related to the financial sector (insurance premiums and bank shares taxes). The forecast error shrank at the January mid-year update (-$397 million) and May update ($60 million). Fiscal Year 2014-15 Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf 7% -13.4% 16.4% 12.0% Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. Data in blue are preliminary or projections. Shaded area denotes income shifting. Sales Tax Forecast Underpredicts FY 18-19 May 20, 2019 14 June 2018 Projected May 2019 Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf roughly 70 percent of annual statewide property taxes, while county and municipal property taxes comprise the remaining 30 percent. Those shares were used to inform the estimated amounts paid in school district and county and municipal property taxes. To extrapolate the Hits: 1
RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdf full workdays will be supplied from home, compared to 5% before the pandemic. 1 For Pennsylvania, nearly four times the share of workers worked from home in 2021 (19%) compared to 2019 (5%). 2 Annual gasoline consumption declined 15% during the Hits: 1
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdf 2021. PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate South Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | May 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Net Share of Migration Population Rank Idaho 31,821 1.67% 1 Montana 14,741 1.33% 2 South Carolina 64,724 Hits: 1
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf to determine reimbursement rates to states for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). The FMAP is the share of program expenditures covered by the federal government and varies by state based on average per capita income. The three Hits: 1
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdf Since the start of the pandemic, U.S. labor force participation rates (share of residents working or actively seeking work) have declined significantly for young workers. Relative to January 2020, the latest data Hits: 1
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf insights into the demand for labor. Labor force participation rates (LFPR) quantify the supply of labor. The LFPR is the share of all residents age 16 or older who are working (includes self- employed) or actively seeking employment. It is based Hits: 1
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf insights into the demand for labor. Labor force participation rates (LFPR) quantify the supply of labor. The LFPR is the share of all residents age 16 or older who are working (includes self- employed) or actively seeking employment. It is based Hits: 1
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf insights into the demand for labor. Labor force participation rates (LFPR) quantify the supply of labor. The LFPR is the share of all residents age 16 or older who are working (includes self- employed) or actively seeking employment. It is based Hits: 1
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf 2020. PA Residents Migrating to Southern States Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Net Share of Migration Population Rank Idaho 36,655 1.99% 1 Montana 12,189 1.12% 2 Arizona 80,033 1 Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf through 2021 Q3. Employee compensation typically comprises about 56% of state Gross Domestic Product, or final sales. Given that large share, and the current ability of firms to push costs forward to consumers, most wage gains will likely be pushed forward Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf support the Apprenticeship and Training Office and Industry Partnerships program. The programs facilitate on-the-job training and industry cohorts sharing best practices. • Spending on Partnerships for Regional Economic Performance decreased by $6.3 million (-48%) from FY 2019-20. This Hits: 1
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf nearly all counties (except Sullivan, Venango and Forest Counties) resident earnings comprised more than half of personal income. For 2018, shares ranged from a high of 67.8 percent (Chester County) to a low of 29.4 percent (Forest County). Independent Hits: 1
RB-2015-02-annual_vs_lifetime_ETR.pdf burden on new wells. The annual tax rate for a state may change from year to year based on the share of total production that happens to qualify for special provisions during the year. Although the annual rate can be tracked Hits: 1
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf support the Apprenticeship and Training Office and Industry Partnerships program. The programs facilitate on-the-job training and industry cohorts sharing best practices.  Spending on Partnerships for Regional Economic Performance increased by $5.0 million over FY 2018-19. This Hits: 1
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf ensure compliance with the tax code. Recent IRS tax gap studies find that the net misreporting percentage (i.e., the share of income that should have been reported but was not) for income subject to “substantial information reporting” (such as a Hits: 1
QRE_FY15-16.xlsx 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 FY 2015-16 Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Projection Financial Institution Taxes Bank Shares 2.3 5.3 294.2 9.2 311.0 Mutual Thrift Institutions 2.7 3.9 3.1 3 Hits: 1
QRE_FY15-16.pdf 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 FY 2015-16 Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Projection Financial Institution Taxes Bank Shares 2.3 5.3 294.2 9.2 311.0 Mutual Thrift Institutions 2.7 3.9 3.1 3 Hits: 1
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf Rate and Rank Property Tax Personal Income Sales and Use PSERS Forecast January 19, 2022 9 State Contributions only. State share is ~57% of total contributions. Fiscal Year 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 Employer Hits: 1
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf 39 -$0.69 -$0.89 -$1.03 Projected Sales Tax Impact: FY 2018-19 1/19/2017 7 Amount ($ millions) Share of Total Increase Sales Tax Rate $1,828 26.8% Certain Foods (exclude WIC & SNAP) $1,500 22.0% Clothing Hits: 1
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf lower per capita income levels. For those counties, Social Security, pensions and savings income (e.g., IRAs) comprise a larger share of total county income. 1 The burden measure represents a county-wide average and reflects all property taxes paid by Hits: 1
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf 0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Revenues (net of refunds) State Expenditures General Fund Revenues and Expenditures as a Share of State GDP Relative Size of State Government 28 FY 2006-07 4.95% Short and Long-Term Challenges for Hits: 1
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx bea.gov/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/) Demographics by State 1990-2012 Year/ Total Population Share of Population Annual Growth Rate Age Group Delaware Maryland New Jersey New York Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia West Virginia Delaware Maryland Hits: 1
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf 759 Net Severance 3 176 855 993 1,322 1,584 Tobacco Taxes 4 523 606 588 581 575 Bank Shares 397 147 155 164 173 Total Revenues 4,908 7,974 8,476 9,179 9,783 Dollar amounts are Hits: 1
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf 13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Pensions Share of GF Expenditures 10.Feb.2017 10 Levels Off Non-discretionary expenditures are mandated by federal law, constitutionally required or Hits: 1
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf 12.0% 33.8% IFO Expenditure Projections May 13, 2016 15 May 13, 2016 16 Revenues and Expenditures as a Share of State GDP Long‐Term Budget Outlook 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Expenditures Revenues Independent Hits: 1
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf Non-Motor Sales 93 Corp. Net Income -176 Gaming Expansion 37 Escheats -109 Insurance Premiums 37 Gross Receipts -89 Bank Shares 34 Cigarette -31 Inheritance 23 Motor Veh Sales -31 All Other 66 All Other -8 Total $400 Total -$644 Note Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf 2018 4 Sensitivity Analysis Actuaries supplied projections and other data used in the analysis.  An IFO-contracted actuary helped shape the request and interpret the data, which was supplied by actuaries for the two major state pension systems.  The Hits: 1
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf disposable income for FY 2018-19  US personal income tax cut: $189 billion (Joint Committee on Taxation) i. PA share is roughly 3.5% or $6.6 billion  US corporate income tax cut: $91 billion (Joint Committee on Taxation Hits: 1
PICPA_Presentation.pdf Total Consumer Debt -0.1% -2.6% 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 1.1% Note: Percentages in parentheses represent share of total debt. Per capital debt levels for all PA consumers with a credit report. Includes family members of such Hits: 1
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf 7% -13.4% 16.4% 12.0% Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. Data in blue are preliminary or projections. Shaded area denotes income shifting. Forms of Payment Shifts Due to Tax Law Change June 11, 2019 12 Tax Year PIT Hits: 1
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf revenue growth will exceed SUT because (1) higher-income residents save significant income and (2) an in- creasing share of consumer spending flows to non-taxable goods and services over time. Annual Growth Rates, Calendar Years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Hits: 1
NFIB_Presentation.pdf tax. SUT is sales-use tax. CNIT is corporate net income tax. All Other Tax excludes CSFT Revenues and Expenditures Share of GDP 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 92-93 94-95 96-97 98-99 Hits: 1
Newsstand_January_2020.pdf Pennsylvania totaled 193,599 and New York (31,623), New Jersey (30,477) and Florida (15,972) contributed the largest shares. However, Florida (26,211), New Jersey (23,126) and New York (18,333) were also the most common destinations for Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_October.pdf noticeable wealth gap between homeowners and renters within the age 65+ group. This trend is expected to continue as the share of U.S. households age 65+ is projected to in- crease from 26% to 34% by 2038, while the homeownership Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf the national average. The Pennsylvania MSA least responsive to an economic down- turn is State College due to its high share of employment in the education sector. BEA Releases GDP by County For the first time, the U.S. Bureau of Hits: 1
NewsStand_2019_August.pdf job in health care in 2017, and more than 85% of registered nurses were women. Women also held a larger share of health care jobs that require an advanced degree, such as pharmacists, physicians and surgeons, dentists and veterinarians, as compared Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf a report from Moody’s that computes the impact of new U.S. and Chinese tariffs. The analysis shows the share of the county economic output or GDP that will be affected by the tariffs. For example, the analysis finds that Hits: 1
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf 25.5 billion to each state, minimum of $500 million. o $169 billion would be allocated based on the states’ share of unemployed workers over a three-month period, from October-December 2020. Provides $130.2 billion to Local Governments: o Hits: 1
NAP-2018-03.pdf for the provision of services to the benefiting community. Tax credits may be used against the corporate net income, bank shares, insurance premiums and mutual thrift institutions taxes. Credits issued to S corporations, limited liability companies, partnerships and business trusts may Hits: 1
MTR-2019-03.pdf million short of estimate, with gross receipts (-$19.3 million) and cigarette tax (-$14.2 million) collections comprising the largest share of the shortfall. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Mar-19 $4,553 $4,430 $123 Hits: 1
MTR-2019-01.pdf Other tax collections for January were above estimate ($7.4 million) primarily due to higher than projected collections from bank shares tax. Other tax collections are higher than expected ($71.8 million) FYTD, driven mainly by gross receipts and insurance premiums Hits: 1
MTR-2018-06.pdf June 2017, including: CNIT ($25.1 million), gross receipts tax ($3.8 million), insurance premiums tax ($2.7 million), bank shares ($2.4 million), non-motor SUT ($33.9 million), PIT withholding ($6.1 million), PIT annual ($26.8 million) and Hits: 1
MTR-2017-09.pdf exceeded estimates include inheritance ($9.0 million, 4.0 percent), insurance premiums ($7.1 million, 253.0 percent) and bank shares ($9.6 million, 342.7 percent). For FY 2017-18, the IFO projected a 2.8 percent year-over-year Hits: 1
MTR-2016-03.pdf Income” link at http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm. 2 Capital gains income is excluded. Pennsylvania Gross Earnings - 2015 Share Growth of Total Rate Gross Earnings 100.0% 3.1% Wages-Salaries 69.4% 3.4% Health-Pension Plans 12 Hits: 1
MTR-2016-02.pdf March 25. 2 Third quarter mining profits from the “Quarterly Financial Report”, U.S. Census Bureau. Sector Dollar Amounts Growth Share 2013-14 2014-15 Rate of Total Wholesale Trade $410.0 $481.8 17.5% 17.1% Manufacturing 455.0 Hits: 1
MTR-2016-01.pdf Labor Statistics, State Area Employment Data- base. Data exclude military personnel and agricultural workers. 2015 Level Change Since 2007 Number Share Number Percent Mining 36.4 0.6% 15.3 72.4% Construction 238.3 4.1% -24.1 -9.2% Hits: 1
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf Budget and Economic Update Marcellus Shale Coalition March 31, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits  An Hits: 1
MRU_2021_03.pdf 83.1 million (0.9 percent). Other revenue sources that surpassed estimates for March include inheritance (+$52.5 million), bank shares (+$17.8 million), cigarette (+$14.8 million), realty transfer (+$12.9 million) and minor and repealed (+$10.7 million) taxes Hits: 1
MRU-2023-04.pdf insurance premiums (+$60.3 million) tax collections, and is partially offset by shortfalls in realty transfer (-$109.4 million), bank shares (-$83.5 million) and cigarette (-$64.4 million) tax revenues. April non-tax collections were $310.0 million, which exceeded Hits: 1
MRU-2020-3.pdf for tax imposed on the telecommunications sector, as electric receipts are generally performing as anticipated. The insurance premiums (IPT), bank shares (BST) and mutual thrift institutions (MTIT) taxes were largely unaffected by the virus. IPT collections of $373.9 million for Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf new claims are expected in the winter when seasonal workers tend to claim benefits.) • Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The LFPR steadily increased since February, but Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf and higher new claims occur in the winter when seasonal workers claim benefits.)  Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The LFPR remains stagnant at 61.7% Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf adjusted and higher new claims occur in the winter when seasonal workers claim benefits.) • Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The LFPR remains stagnant at 61.7% Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf spent 7.2% less on services and 6.9% more on goods when compared to the prior year. When the share of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that are goods versus services is viewed in a time series, it highlights differences between Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdf adjusted and higher new claims occur in the winter when seasonal workers claim benefits.) • Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The LFPR increased to 61.9% and Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf are not seasonally adjusted and higher new claims are expected in the winter.)  Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The current LFPR remains far below pre- Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf and higher new claims occur in the winter when seasonal workers claim benefits.)  Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The LFPR returns to 61.7% and Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf the first round of Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) and how they would spend a second-round payment. Respondents reported the share of the payment used for the following categories: spending on essentials, spending on non-essentials, donations, savings or paying down Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdf adjusted and higher new claims occur in the winter when seasonal workers claim benefits.) • Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The LFPR contracted to 61.6% and Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf data are not seasonally adjusted and higher new claims are expected in the winter.) • Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The LFPR increased since January, but has Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf foodservice (-280,000 loss, 49% recovered) sectors experienced large YOY job losses in April. These sectors recovered nearly the same share of jobs lost compared to two other large sectors that were not as negatively impacted by the pandemic: manufacturing (-77 Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf and higher new claims occur in winter months when seasonal workers claim benefits.)  Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) The share of state residents age 16 or older who work or actively seek employment. The LFPR remained at 61.9% and Hits: 1
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf Lease Fund transfer or casino license fees. Personal Income -55 Concerns about wage growth and strength of annual payment. Bank Shares -15 Overpayments from prior year will reduce cash remittances. Other -40 Mainly from cigarette and capital stock and franchise taxes Hits: 1
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf March 25, 2021, the Federal Reserve announced that banks would be allowed to resume normal levels of dividend payouts and share repurchases as of June 30. Payouts had been restricted as a precaution during the pandemic. ▪ Pennsylvania existing home values increased Hits: 1
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf 4% Top 1% Is Pennsylvania a High-Tax State? Depends Who You Ask  PA taxes on PA residents, as share of PA income: 18th  This matches well with aggregate Census data.  But PA taxes on bottom quintile are Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf moderate rebound TY 2023 Corporate profits extend surge into 2023 | modest contraction assumed ▪ 2022 non-financial corporate domestic profits highest share of GDP since 1968 ▪ 2017 TCJA amortization change adds +$300 million to CNIT for FY 22-23 Non-motor vehicle Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf moderate rebound TY 2023 Corporate profits extend surge into 2023 | modest contraction assumed ▪ 2022 non-financial corporate domestic profits highest share of GDP since 1968 ▪ 2017 TCJA amortization change adds +$300 million to CNIT for FY 22-23 Non-motor vehicle Hits: 1
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf PIT revenue growth will exceed SUT because (1) higher-income residents save significant income and (2) an increasing share of consumer spending flows to non-taxable goods and services over time. Annual Growth Rates, Calendar Years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Hits: 1
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf Independent Fiscal Office | June 2021 Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf Office June 2019 1 Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf Office June 2018 1 Impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf Independent Fiscal Office January 2020 1 2019 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf with model assumption will be ~16%. • Modeling assumes that 25% of net generation exported. Latest data from EIA show export share is 35%. Natural Gas Prices The 2021 Model Reference Case assumed an average Henry Hub price of $3.27 for Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf that declines to $30 million after several years, and then $15 million after several more years. • HB 1960 increases the share of taxable income that C corporations can offset through net operating loss deductions from 40% to 80% over four years Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_Feb_21_2023.pdf January 9, 2023. That letter requests that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) project the impact of an increase in the share of taxable income that C corporations may offset through net operating loss (NOL) deductions in accordance with the two scenarios Hits: 1
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf Independent Fiscal Office 5 February 2022 Economics – Inflation and General Economics Economics – Inflation and Recent Trends Year-Over-Year Growth Share Dec 19 Jun 20 Dec 20 Jun 21 Dec 21 Philadephia CPI-U 100% 2.4% 0.1% 1.1% Hits: 1
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf 2019 Q3 (prelim)  Net job gains down notably from last year (very prelim) Other state fundamentals remain in good shape  Home sales sluggish, but solid price gains  Consumer debt picks up in first half of 2019 (+4.3% Hits: 1
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf the overall state economy. • Revenue sources tied to business profits or stock markets (i.e, dividends and capital gains) are shaded red and recorded very strong growth due to inflated asset markets and unusually high profit margins. • Sales and use taxes Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf 4,263 112% Note: Change or Growth compares 2021 to average for 2018 and 2019. Source: Federal Reserve Board. PA share is ~4% or about $31 billion likely not stimulus most is spent a direct increase in money supply U.S Hits: 1
Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdf to increasing natural gas production that provided a relatively low-cost input for electricity generators in the state. Moreover, the share of total electricity generation from Pennsylvania plants that use natural gas increased from 28% to 52% during 1 This computation Hits: 1
Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdf to increasing natural gas production that provided a relatively low-cost input for electricity generators in the state. Moreover, the share of total electricity generation from 1 This computation generally follows the EIA methodology used to compute net interstate trade. Total Hits: 1
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf contract.  Budget requires close scrutiny. • Certain programs grow automatically (healthcare and retirement). • Forward looking investments may comprise a smaller share: education, infrastructure and capital formation. • Also consider regular review of tax credits and tax expenditures. February 28, 2017 15 February Hits: 1
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf per capita income levels. For those counties, Social Security and savings income (e.g., pensions and IRAs) comprise a larger share of total county income. 1 The burden measure represents a county-wide average and reflects all property taxes paid by Hits: 1
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf before the pandemic. Revenues are projected to increase sharply this year and then hover around their historical average as a share of the economy. 11 Outlays, by Category of Spending Under current law, mandatory outlays fall for the next few years Hits: 1
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf U.S. economy in 2014. Businesses have cash balances available to expand hiring and investment. Households are in better financial shape to increase spending because they have paid down debt, especially credit card debt. Gains in the stock market and housing Hits: 1
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are Hits: 1
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are Hits: 1
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf Introduction Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are Hits: 1
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf A5. Schwartz, Nelson. “Restored Payroll Tax Pinches Those Who Earn the Least,” New York Times, February 8, 2013, p. B1. Shah, Neil. “Tax Holiday Ends, Consumers Scrimp,” Wall Street Journal, February 8, 2013, p. A2. Jakab, Spenser. “U.S. Tax Bonanza Hits: 1
2001_hr266.pdf not reflect a more transient work 16 force, plan design is relatively inflexible and the employee 17 does not directly share in heightened investment returns except 18 in cases of periodic benefit enhancements or COLAs; and 19 WHEREAS, Under DC plans Hits: 1
Pensions suspending their annuity payments. Also stipulates that these individuals would not be subject to withholdings of the employee or employer share of the pension plans. Dictates that employees in these positions that opt ... read more SB 464 Summary • Public Safety Employee Hits: 1
About IFO Motor License Fund. Ms. Knavel also conducted policy analysis related to a wide variety of tax types and participated in shaping many aspects of the Department's tax policy. Ms. Knavel holds a B.S. in Finance from Pennsylvania State University Hits: 1