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State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. Tags: comparison, local, state, tax
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. Tags: comparison, local, state, tax
Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. 02/23/2021
February 2021 Economic Update The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  02/18/2021
January 2021 Economic Update The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  01/20/2021
December 2020 Economic Update The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  12/16/2020
November 2020 Economic Update The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  11/25/2020
Natural Gas Production Report, 2020Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  11/24/2020
state and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 state Comparison This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 11/24/2020
IFO Public Briefing: October 2020 Revenue and Economic Update The IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 10/23/2020
October 2020 Economic Update The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  10/22/2020
Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. 10/15/2020
September 2020 Economic Update The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  09/23/2020
Demographic Outlook Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 09/08/2020
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget. 08/27/2020
August 2020 Economic Update The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/25/2020
Natural Gas Production Report, 2020Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 08/20/2020
July 2020 Economic Update The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  07/23/2020
Pennsylvania Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends Presentation Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to the Center for Energy Policy and Management at Washington & Jefferson College regarding regional natural gas trends and how they are affecting the state's Impact Fee. 07/14/2020
PSEA Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania state  Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Unit. 07/02/2020
Economic Impact from Regulation of Single-Use Plastics As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products. 06/30/2020
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania state Corrections Officers Association (PSCOA). 06/26/2020
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Presentation Methodology 06/22/2020
June 2020 Economic Update The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  06/17/2020
Natural Gas Production Report, 2020Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  05/21/2020
May 2020 Economic Update The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 05/20/2020
April 2020 Economic Update The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 04/22/2020
Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19 The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy. 04/08/2020
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  03/25/2020
Family First Prevention Services Act Preliminary Analysis In response to a legislative request, the IFO conducted a preliminary analysis on the state and county impacts of the Family First Prevention Services Act. 03/04/2020
Natural Gas Production Report, 2019Q4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 02/26/2020
IFO News Stand - February Edition The February edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 02/20/2020
Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings. Testimony 02/14/2020
state and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across states This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 01/29/2020
PBB Overview Presentation for PEMA, DOS and DEP IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency, Department of state and Department of Environmental Protection. 01/22/2020
Department of Community and Economic Development Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of state and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Community and Economic Development. 01/21/2020
Research and Development Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Research and Development Tax Credit Report. 01/21/2020
Department of Human Services - Part 1 Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of state and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services. The report has been reposted with modifications adopted by vote of the Performance-Based Budget Board. 01/21/2020
Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Report. 01/21/2020
Department of Health Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of state and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Health. 01/20/2020
Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit Report. 01/16/2020
Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit Report. 01/16/2020
Department of Environmental Protection Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of state and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Environmental Protection. 01/16/2020
Department of state Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of state and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of state. 01/16/2020
Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of state and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. 01/16/2020
IFO News Stand - January Edition The January edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/15/2020
IFO News Stand - December Edition The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/20/2019
Natural Gas Production Report, 2019Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 12/03/2019
IFO News Stand-October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  10/24/2019
FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Federation of state Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP). 10/11/2019
Property Tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code affecting personal income and sales and use taxes. 10/04/2019
Senior Spending and Tax Revenues In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes (1) state spending dedicated to seniors, (2) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors and (3) potential changes in senior migration patterns due to proposed tax law changes.   09/27/2019
IFO NEWS STAND - SEPTEMBER EDITION The September edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.  09/25/2019
Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017 This research brief uses state personal income tax data to estimate natural gas royalties paid to landowners in 2017. The data suggest that royalties paid increased significantly from the prior year due to increased production and higher prices. 09/20/2019
ISSU Wage Contract Analysis This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Independent state Stores Union (ISSU). 09/13/2019
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.  08/28/2019
Natural Gas Production Report, 2019Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.  08/21/2019
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. 08/08/2019
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/18/2019
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and official estimates for FY 2019-20 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.  Methodology 06/21/2019
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/20/2019
Natural Gas Production Report, 2019Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/30/2019
Property Tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO has posted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code that affect personal income, sales and property taxes. 05/23/2019
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/22/2019
PA Economy League Presentation In partnership with the Pennsylvania Economy League, Director Matthew Knittel and Deputy Director Brenda Warburton will make multiple presentations on raising the state minimum wage to $12.00 per hour. The presentation examines the proposed minimum wage’s impact on employment, worker incomes, prices and state spending. 05/01/2019
IFO News Stand - April Edition The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/22/2019
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 03/19/2019
Special Fund Receipts and Disbursements and Ambulatory Surgical Center Assessment The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked for an update to a February 12, 2018 report on the receipts and disbursements of certain special funds and information on how Pennsylvania compares to other states with regard to the use of special funds. Another committee member asked about the proposed ambulatory surgical center assessment for the Department of Human Services (DHS). 03/13/2019
Income and Property Tax Burden for Retirees In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled state and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across states (December 2018). The letter also compares Pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states. 03/06/2019
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION REPORT, 2018 Q4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 03/05/2019
Budget Hearings Packet For Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings. Testimony 02/11/2019
IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 12/11/2018
Natural Gas Production Report, 2018 Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 12/04/2018
state and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across states This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) state tax rates and (4) state debt levels. 12/03/2018
IFO News Stand - November Edition The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 11/20/2018
IFO News Stand - October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 10/17/2018
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION REPORT, 2018Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 08/30/2018
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 08/20/2018
Demographic Trends and the PA Economy Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the PA state Association of Boroughs on demographic trends and the PA economy. 08/08/2018
MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY REVENUE ESTIMATES This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2018-19 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 18, 2018. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 07/30/2018
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/24/2018
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/19/2018
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19 The official revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Methodology 06/18/2018
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION REPORT, 2018Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2018 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/31/2018
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/16/2018
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19 The initial revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Press Release Presentation 05/01/2018
IFO News Stand - April Edition The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/20/2018
Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate.  04/11/2018
Fiscal Impact of School Property Tax Rebates In response to a legislative request, the IFO estimated the fiscal impact of a school property tax rebate for all homesteads. The rebate would be equal to the statewide average school property tax paid by homesteads. The response includes both baseline estimates for currently eligible homesteads and estimates for a behavioral effect based on the filing of additional homestead applications in response to the availability of rebates. 03/13/2018
Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder - a Multi-Jurisdiction Comparison The Independent Fiscal Office responded to a question raised at the office's recent budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked how Pennsylvania compares to other states regarding the share of owner-occupied households in which the homeowner is age 60 or over. The response includes multi-jurisdiction comparisons for householders who are age 60 or over, age 65 or over and age 75 or over.  03/12/2018
Natural Gas Production Report, 2017Q4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 03/05/2018
Pennsylvania Fiscal Update Director Matthew Knittel provided a fiscal update for the state at a conference hosted by the Pittsburgh Chamber of Commerce.  02/28/2018
Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20.  The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table 02/16/2018
state and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across states This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 02/01/2018
Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/29/2018
Responsiveness of state Tax Revenues to Economic Growth In response to a legislative request, the IFO compared the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 12/26/2017
Updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget. 12/21/2017
Natural Gas Production Report, 2017 Q3 This report for the third quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 12/07/2017
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share 11/16/2017
Child Care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania The report provides an overview of the economic impacts of state spending on subsidized child care and no-cost pre-kindergarten programs in Pennsylvania. 09/06/2017
IFO state Government Committee Hearing Director Matthew Knittel will testify in front of the House of Representatives’ state Government Committee to provide the committee with information regarding the IFO’s administration of laws under the jurisdiction of the state Government Committee. 08/30/2017
Natural Gas Production Report, 2017 Q2 This report for the second quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 08/29/2017
Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides preliminary revenue distributions based on the FY 2017-18 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 15, 2017. They do not reflect any potential statutory changes that may be enacted with the state budget. 08/10/2017
Memo to Joint state Government Commission (HR 910 of 2016) On June 2, 2017, the Independent Fiscal Office submitted a memo to the Joint state Government Commission containing work product for HR 910 of 2016.  The linked document is a copy of that memo.  08/01/2017
Savings and Costs of a $12/hour Minimum Wage on DHS-administered Programs In response to a legislative request, the IFO reviewed the Department of Human Services' projections for the state savings and costs that could occur if Pennsylvania's minimum wage were to be increased to $12 per hour.  06/30/2017
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2017-18 FY 2017-18 official estimate and FY 2016-17 estimate revision (June 2017). Methodology 06/15/2017
Actuarial Note for Senate Bill 1; A01354 and A01558 The actuarial note analyzes a proposal to amend the Public School Employees' Retirement Code and the state Employees' Retirement Code to (1) require most new employees to select one of three new plan design options and (2) make certain actuarial funding changes. The plan design options include two hybrid plans consisting of defined benefit and defined contribution components. The third option is a stand-alone defined contribution plan.  On June 5, 2017 the IFO updated the actuarial note by clarifiying certain language in the summary of Senate Bill 1. A list of the changes is available here.  06/03/2017
state and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across states This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.  05/31/2017
Natural Gas Production Report, 2017 Q1 This report for the first quarter of 2017 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/22/2017
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2017-18 The initial revenue estimate for FY 2017-18 and updated estimates for FY 2016-17. Press Release Presentation 05/02/2017
Horse Racing Analysis Act 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint state Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to JSGC (March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017) 03/13/2017
Philadelphia Cigarette & Beverage Tax Impact The IFO responds to a request regarding the impact of Philadelphia’s local cigarette and beverage taxes on state revenue collections. The letter has been revised to include current footnotes 3 and 6, which provide additional context for the assumptions used by the analysis.  (Revised on March 20, 2017) 03/13/2017
ISSU & PSSU Wage Contracts Analysis Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the following unions: Independent state Stores Union (ISSU) Pennsylvania Social Services Union (PSSU), Hearing Officers 03/08/2017
Natural Gas Production Report, 2016 Quarter 4 This report for the fourth quarter of 2016 and the calendar year uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 03/02/2017
Department of Corrections Performance Measures At the request of the General Assembly, the IFO has published a performance measurement report for the Department of Corrections (DOC) in advance of the agency’s budget hearings. The report includes agency cost-drivers, performance metrics and multi-state comparisons. The DOC report arises from the IFO’s 2016 report, “Using Performance Measures in the state Budget,” in which the office outlined options for performance measurement and provided a prototype report that could be integrated into the state budget process and utilized during annual budget hearings. 02/27/2017
Budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21.  The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas.    Download a version for optimized web viewing 02/16/2017
Pennsylvania Gaming Trends This research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16. 02/13/2017
Mid-Year Update FY2016-17 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than the IFO’s November 2016 estimate and $450 million lower than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017-18, revenues are projected to be $32.637 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. ​Press Release 01/25/2017
Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the following six unions: Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA) Federation of state Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania PA state Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) 01/12/2017
Updated School District Property Tax Forecast Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast. 01/09/2017
Natural Gas Production Report, 2016 Quarter 3 This report for the third quarter of 2016 and the calendar year-to-date uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 11/30/2016
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk 11/15/2016
Using Performance Measures in the state Budget Discusses performance-based budgeting and how it could be integrated into Pennsylvania's budget process. Highlights how other states are effectively using performance measures in their budget systems. Includes a prototype report which could be used in agency budget hearings and provides a method for quick integration. 09/19/2016
Natural Gas Production Report, 2016 Quarter 2 This report for the second quarter of 2016 and the calendar year-to-date uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 08/26/2016
Quarterly Revenue Estimates This report provides quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The quarterly estimates are based on: (1) the FY 2016-17 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office on June 15, 2016 and (2) adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget.  08/24/2016
Natural Gas Production Report, 2016 Quarter 1 This report for the first quarter of 2016 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 05/26/2016
The Implications of Economic and Demographic Trends for state and Municipal Tax Policy Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation at the Urban Economic and Policy Conference sponsored by Drexel University and Econsult Solutions entitled "The Implications of Economic and Demographic Trends for state and Municipal Tax Policy." 04/24/2016
The Implications of an Aging Populace for the state Budget Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the budgetary implications of an aging populace at a conference sponsored by the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center. 03/03/2016
Natural Gas Production Report, 2015 July to December This report for the second half of 2015 and the calendar year-to-date uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 02/29/2016
Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of the proposal to 1) raise the Pennsylvania state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and 2) automatically adjust future minimum wage levels to offset inflation. 11/30/2015
Natural Gas Production Report, 2015 January to June This report for the first half of 2015 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 09/15/2015
Analysis of a statewide Financial Transactions Tax Letter discussing issues that should be considered when evaluating a potential state-level tax on the transfer of securities (May 2015). The office was asked to discuss the viability of the tax and identify any benefits or detriments associated with it.  05/15/2015
state and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across states The report examines how Pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to make comparisons. 03/30/2015
Property Tax Rebate Estimate Letter providing estimates for a potential proposal to give homestead owners school property tax rebates equal to the statewide average school property tax paid (March 2015). 03/11/2015
Pennsylvania Gaming Trends This research brief gives a historical overview of gaming trends and revenues in Pennsylvania. This includes the role of gaming in the state economy as well as comparisons to other states.  02/28/2015
Fiscal Implications of a York County School District Consolidation The report provides potential consolidation savings and costs for 15 York County school districts and computes the real estate tax millage using various earned income tax rates and administrative savings scenarios. Full Report Presentation 12/12/2014
state Economic Comparison This research brief uses Real GDP, Personal Income and Payroll Employment to compare economic performance in Pennsylvania to four adjacent states and the U.S. over the past decade. 09/30/2014
Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison This report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections) 03/17/2014
Pennsylvania Lottery: Historical Data and Interstate Comparisons Demographic projections suggest that demand for programs and services funded by lottery revenues will grow at a rate that exceeds the expansion of the Pennsylvania economy. Therefore, an important issue for policymakers is whether lottery revenues can maintain recent growth rates so they will be sufficient to meet those demands. This report provides data to assist policymakers in those deliberations. 01/30/2014
Analysis of Michigan Property Tax Reform This report presents the results from an analysis of the Michigan property tax reform known as Proposal A. Enacted in 1994, Proposal A replaced all local property taxes used for school operating purposes with higher sales and use, realty transfer and tobacco taxes. It also created a distinction between homestead and nonhomestead property to facilitate the statewide levy of uniform property taxes on those classes of property. The report makes extensive use of data published by various Michigan executive and legislative agencies to illustrate the impact of property tax reform on tax revenues, millage rates, per pupil funding levels and the property tax base over the past two decades. 09/16/2013
Corporate Tax Base Erosion: Analysis of Policy Options Analysis of the policies that states have used to preserve or expand the corporate tax base. The report focuses on two particular base retention or expansion policies: combined reporting and expense addbacks. 03/04/2013
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Concerning Restrictive Investment Mandates and their Potential Impact upon the Public School Employees’ Retirement System and the State Employees’ Retirement System S P E C I A L R E P O R T: DIVESTMENT AND PENNSYLVANIA’S Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Concerning Restrictive Investment Mandates and their Potential Impact upon the Public School Employees’ Retirement System and the State Employees’ Retirement System Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Harrisburg, Pennsylvania October 2007 PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION Gubernatorial Appointees Hits: 907
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf through 37, by striking out all of said lines and inserting Amending Titles 24 (Education), 51 (Military Affairs) and 71 (State Government) of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes, extensively revising pension provisions as follows: In Title 24: for retirement for school employees of absence. In Title 71: for boards and offices, in the area of Independent Fiscal Office; and for retirement for State employees and officers, in the areas of preliminary provisions, of membership, credited service, classes of service and eligibility for benefits Hits: 786
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf StreetP. O. Box 1429Harrisburg, PA 17105-1429Telephone:(717) 783-6100FAX:(717) 787-9531E-mail:perc@pa.govWeb Site:www.perc.state.pa.us -i- COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION HARRISBURG 17120 January 28, 2013 To:Members of the Pennsylvania Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9•Table 3–Cash Infusion Projections – Public SchoolEmployees’ Retirement System.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10•Table 4–Cash Infusion Projections – State Employees’Retirement System.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10•Table 5–Public School Employees’ Retirement System, Projected Employer Contribution Rates BasedUpon Optional Amortization Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Hits: 342
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 267
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf Building P. O. Box 1429 Harrisburg, PA 17105-1429 Telephone: (717) 783-6100 FAX: (717) 787-9531 E-mail: perc@state.pa.us Web Site: www.perc.state.pa.us i COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION P. O. BOX 1429, HARRISBURG, PA 17105-1429 March 2006 Hits: 217
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 199
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 197
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 190
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 184
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 164
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 162
RB-2017-5.pdf State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Responsiveness of Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction This analysis submitted by a member of the General Assembly to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The analysis compares the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 1 For this Hits: 142
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Karen Maynard Hits: 140
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf 1 State and Local Taxes A Comparison Across States JANUARY 2020 Independent Fiscal Office About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use Hits: 137
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf IFO | APRIL 2018 1 INTRODUCTION In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) undertook an analysis of state corporate net income tax (CNIT) rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. House year to a final rate of 4.99 percent. If enacted, the proposal would move Pennsylvania from the second highest state CNIT rate to a rank of 40 out of the 44 states that levy a CNIT. Based on the request Hits: 137
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 136
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 133
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 126
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 118
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 115
2002_dbdc_report.pdf Building P. O. Box 1429 Harrisburg, PA 17105-1429 Telephone: (717) 783-6100 FAX: (717) 787-9531 E-mail: perc@state.pa.us -i- COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION P. O. BOX 1429, HARRISBURG, PA 17105-1429 December 2002 the potential provision of a defined contribution plan option, within the context of Pennsylvania’s defined benefit pension plans for State and public school employees, and to report its findings to the General Assembly no later than December 31, 2002. The Hits: 114
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 110
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf Maintenance and Repair About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Contacts: Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director __________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Hits: 107
SR2017-03.pdf U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local Hits: 104
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 102
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf DRAFT About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 99
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf Conduent, actu- ary for the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and Korn Ferry Hay Group, actu- ary for the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS). The proposal amends the retirement codes to (1) require most new employees to select one of Office A01354 and A01558 to SB 1 2 Independent Fiscal Office The Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) (Systems) administer governmental, cost-sharing, multiple-employer defined benefit pension plans. The plans provide retirement allowances Hits: 97
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 telephone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 96
2004_srpvffinal.pdf Building P. O. Box 1429 Harrisburg, PA 17105-1429 Telephone: (717) 783-6100 FAX: (717) 787-9531 E-mail: perc@state.pa.us Web Site: www.perc.state.pa.us -iii- COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION P. O. BOX 1429, HARRISBURG, PA 17105-1429 March 2004 Hits: 96
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 93
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 92
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 91
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 88
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street Hits: 86
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf Independent Fiscal Office State and Local Tax Comparison Study October 2012 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the Hits: 85
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 84
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 82
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 79
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 79
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 75
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 74
perez ppt.pdf State Budget Update Arturo Pérez NCSL Fiscal Affairs Program Director Overview – State fiscal conditions continue to improve, but at a very slow pace. – Revenue performance is solid – Expenditures are stable – Budget gaps Hits: 66
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf establishes the Independent Fiscal Office. Section 4104 of the Act specifies that the Office shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, we submit this report to the residents of Hits: 61
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 18, 2020 Dear Chairmen and Members Hits: 60
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 phone: 717-230-8293 email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us website: www Hits: 54
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 27, 2020 The Honorable Karen Boback Hits: 53
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf Building P. O. Box 1429 Harrisburg, PA 17105-1429 Telephone: (717) 783-6100 FAX: (717) 787-9531 E-Mail: perc@state.pa.us -i- COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION HARRISBURG 17120 November 2000 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General resolution directed the Commission to study the funding methods used for cost-of-living adjustments in the Commonwealth and other states and to report its findings and recommendations on funding cost-of-living adjustments no later than December 28, 2000. The Hits: 50
Independent Fiscal Office on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. ... (Full Report) Economic and Budget Update Presentation News Stand & Other February 19, 2021 Deputy Director Brenda 2021 The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. ... (Full Report) Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees News Stand & Other February 12 Hits: 50
RB 2019 RACP.pdf fiscal impact from the proposed debt limit reduction.  A comparison to similar programs and total debt levels in other states. Program Overview RACP is a grant program administered by the Governor’s Budget Office (GBO). It provides funding for the acquisition and construction of local economic, cultural, civic, recreational and historical improvement projects that cannot be primarily funded by other state programs. The sale of general obligation bonds (backed by the General Fund) provides funds for the program, and qualified projects Hits: 48
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf Economic & Revenue Update Pennsylvania House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 20, 2018 Dear Chairmen and Members Hits: 47
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 8, 2019 Dear Chairmen and Members Hits: 43
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 23, 2019 The Honorable Francis X Hits: 41
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 40
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 40
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf Kar About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 39
RB-2016-02.pdf attempt to stimulate economic growth through various direct (e.g., expenditures) and indirect (e.g., tax credits) spending mechanisms. Many states publish comprehensive reports that detail their spending on economic development incentives. In Pennsylvania, the information is dispersed across multiple sources activity that they may not otherwise have done. For example, incentives may encourage businesses to create jobs, locate in the state, invest in machinery or other equipment and build more than they would have otherwise. Incentive programs seek to accomplish this Hits: 39
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 38
2002_drop_report.pdf Building P. O. Box 1429 Harrisburg, PA 17105-1429 Telephone: (717) 783-6100 FAX: (717) 787-9531 E-mail: perc@state.pa.us -i- COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT COMMISSION HARRISBURG 17120 March 2002 To: Governor Schweiker and Members of of DROPs, it is unlikely that, in the absence of enabling legislation, DROPs created in Pennsylvania would conform to existing State statutes. While compatibility with State statutes in many states may pose no significant problem for municipal pension plans, non-conformance Hits: 38
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf For my remarks, I will provide some brief comments on combined reporting, the use of the filing method by other states and the IFO’s perspective on the potential revenue impact. Background Under mandatory combined reporting, multi-state firms that form a unitary group are required to file a combined return as if the related entities were a Hits: 37
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 19, 2021 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September 2011 Nearly all states have a fiscal office ▪ But they are housed within the state legislature | PA is unique ▪ All have a governing board composed of legislators ▪ Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties span a Hits: 37
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 6, 2020 The Honorable Patrick M Hits: 33
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 33
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf Primary Agency Fund Name Available Agriculture Agricultural Conservation Easement $41,617 Racing 62,995 State College Experimental Farm 0 Attorney General Cigarette Fire Safety 50 Auditor General Fire Insurance 68,521 Municipal Pension 301,730 Criminal Justice Manufacturing Fund 104,616 Drug and Alcohol Substance Abuse Education 8,300 Education Property Tax Relief 766,200 State School Fund 0 Environmental Protection Coal Lands Improvement 175 Conservation District 8,701 Environmental Education 1,520 Environmental Stewardship 1 Hits: 32
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent economic indicators provide different perspectives on the state and national economies. Some national indicators suggest an increasing risk of recession. Those indicators include: (1) an S&P 500 Index that has declined roughly 10 percent since the start of December, (2) a manufacturing index that has declined in 10 of the past 12 months and (3) declining corporate Hits: 32
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf F E B R UA R Y 2 1 2 0 1 7 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 February 13, 2017 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate and bolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The Hits: 32
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf F E B R UA R Y 2 1 2 0 1 7 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 February 13, 2017 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate and bolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The Hits: 32
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 30
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf Pennsylvania P.O. Box 1429 Harrisburg, PA 17105-1429 Telephone: (717) 783-6100 Facsimile: (717) 787-9531 E-mail: perc@state.pa.us -i- PREFACE Retirement systems for employees of local governments in Pennsylvania are authorized for all classes of local 19 Reporting Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Actuarial Funding Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Required Actuarial Cost Estimates for Benefit Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 General Municipal Pension System State Aid . . . . . 27 Recovery Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 -iii- Table of Contents (Cont'd) Page Review of Local Government Employee Retirement System Laws Hits: 29
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 29
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf Katharine Witgert Program Manager National Academy for State Health Policy Annual Presentation The Economic and Budget Outlook Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2012 Health Care Reform: What it Means for States 1 • 25 year old non-profit, non-partisan organization • Academy members – Peer-selected group of state health policy leaders – Commitment Hits: 28
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf subject to Pennsylvania personal income tax. Wage and salary income comprises nearly 60 percent of all cash income received by state residents, and excludes self-employed individuals and independent contractors. Wages motivate personal income tax withholding revenues. The non-wage income on the Pennsylvania personal income tax return. Corporate profits reflect all U.S. corporations because estimates are not published for states. The following scenarios were used for CY 2020:  Based on workers affected by business closures, wages-salaries decline by Hits: 28
Pensions IFO - Pensions IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Pensions Legislation Enacted - School and State School and State Pension Legislation Enacted Since 2001 Legislative Session 2017 - 2018 Act 2017 - 5 ( Senate Bill Number 1, Printer's Number 902 Hits: 28
NAP-2018-03.pdf provides an overview of each component of the NAP, explains how the program works and estimates the economic impact of state spending for this purpose. 2 PROGRAM OVERVIEW The Neighborhood Assistance Program utilizes tax credits to encourage private investment in projects next section.) Special Program Priorities (SPP) – Provides a tax credit of up to 75 percent of eligible contributions targeting specific, state designated priority problems or projects. 4 Neighborhood Partnership Program (NPP) – Provides tax credits for eligible contributions targeting multiple projects over Hits: 27
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization that works on federal, state, and local tax policy issues. ITEP's mission is to ensure that elected officials, the media, and the general public academic consensus  Some studies find significant, if small, negative relationships between marginal tax rates and economic growth at the state level  Others find none, or even a positive relationship. But…  Garbage in, garbage out  Easy to quantify Hits: 27
House Budget Hearing Request.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 March 7, 2017 The Honorable Stan Saylor Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter responds to requests Hits: 25
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 28, 2020 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September 2011 Nearly all states have a fiscal office  But they are housed within the state legislature | PA is unique  All have a governing board composed of legislators  Bi-partisan vs non-partisan Duties Hits: 25
RB-2015-04.pdf 2015 Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania The FY 2015‐16 Executive Budget includes a proposal that (1) increases the state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and (2) automatically adjusts future minimum wage levels to offset in Ðlation revenue proposals included in the Executive Budget. Table 1 provides a comparison of minimum wage rates for Pennsylvania and adjacent states for 2015 and 2016. For 2015, all adjacent states require that employers pay a minimum wage that exceeds the federal Hits: 24
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx tax credit Reviews should include a Tax Credit Plan ▪ I nclude performance metrics (outcome, efficiency) ▪ Benchmarks against programs in other states ▪ Specific recommendations to improve operation and efficiency January 23, 2020 1 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 2 Theme: jobs creation to expand availability and enhance quality ▪ No requirement to locate in underserved/unserved areas ▪ No requirement on minimum speeds 24 states have a broadband incentive ▪ But only 3 use tax credits | most use grants and allow wired investment At most, only Hits: 23
Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf State Private Pensions Gov't Pensions Social Security Alabama limited exemption exempt exempt Alaska n.a. n.a. n.a. Arizona 000 same as federal Wisconsin depends on income limited exemption exempt Wyoming n.a. n.a. n.a. Table 1 State Income Tax Treatment of Retirement Income Note: n.a. represents states that have no personal income tax on wages. Source Hits: 23
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE . September 30, 2019 The Honorable Francis X Hits: 22
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf There are ~5.0 million PA households in 2018: ~$1,500 per household Corporate net income tax  Expansion of state corporate income tax base adds ~$160 million next year i. Eliminate Section 199 deduction, limit interest deduction ii. Any repatriation 3 Business Tax Climate and Other Rankings All tax rankings are imperfect because they cannot reflect all aspects of the state tax system  Many are subjective and reflect tax policy goals  A tax-friendly business climate need not translate Hits: 21
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf PASBO 63 rd Annual Conference and Exhibits The IFO Perspective on State Financial and Demographic Data Presentation at the Annual Conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Mark J. Ryan Earned Income $1,509 5.3% Other Local Sources $2,185 7.7% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $531 1.9% State (excludes Act 1) $9,944 34.9% Federal $775 2.7% Other (debt related) $934 3.3% Total $28,494 Hits: 20
About IFO Code . The office Mission Statement is as follows: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the economist by the Michigan Department of Treasury. Mr. Knittel holds a M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Michigan State University and a bachelor's degree in Economics from Hope College in Holland, Michigan. Mr. Knittel has taught courses at Hits: 20
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx invited to submit comments. Review relevant studies over past decade. ▪ Government, academic and industry. ▪ Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis. ▪ FPTC : large ($65 million) and good data are available. ▪ JCTC: ($10 million) simplified than 100% incentivized, can still have positive effects. ▪ FPTC : a 4:1 leverage ratio, but 40% of qualified spend leaves state. ▪ HPTC: large, long-term positive spillover effects. Analyses must include state balanced budget. ▪ Many studies ignore. Included in all IFO Hits: 19
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf submit comments. Review relevant studies over past decade.  Government, academic and industry.  Benchmark PA tax credit to other states. If useful, perform an economic impact analysis.  FPTC: large ($65 million) and good data are available.  JCTC: ($10 100% incentivized, can still have positive effects.  FPTC: a 4:1 leverage ratio, but 40% of qualified spend leaves state.  HPTC: large, long-term positive spillover effects. Analyses must include state balanced budget.  Many studies ignore. Included in Hits: 19
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE August 16, 2018 The Honorable Eddie Day Hits: 19
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf workforce  Economics: modest 2018 gains from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018- 19-20.  Pension systems achieve annual returns of 7.25%.  Healthcare inflation does not accelerate from current rates. State economy operates at long-term potential.  Real GDP +1.9% | Wages-Salaries +3.9% | CPI-U +2.1%.  Hits: 19
MER-2015-06.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat- est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year-over-year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 19
PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf Earned Income $1,592 5.3% Other Local Sources $2,347 7.8% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $533 1.8% State (excludes Act 1) $10,962 36.2% Federal $897 3.0% Other (debt related) $439 1.4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies include contributions to PSERS ($2.3 billion). Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Growth Rate of School Property Tax to Hits: 17
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS & THE PA ECONOMY PA State Association of Boroughs Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 MATTHEW KNITTEL, DIRECTOR Independent fiscal office August 8, 2018 The big picture: state demographic trends.  Historical trends. Projections through 2025.  Disclaimer: trends may not translate to all local units. Aging’s Hits: 17
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf PBB Overview and Agency Highlights PEMA Dept of State Dept of Environmental Protection Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 22, 2020 Performance Based Budgeting (PBB) Alternative budget trends in output and efficiency?  Are we making progress towards desired outcomes?  How does PA compare to other states and U.S.? There are many things that PBB cannot do  Cost-benefit analysis (no longer supported by Pew Hits: 17
MTR-2016-12.pdf 27.5% FYTD $13,455 $13,308 $147 Growth 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. STATE GDP CONTRACTS The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for the second quarter of 2016. The release includes revised quarterly statistics for 2005 to 2016. The table below shows Hits: 17
Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 January 12, 2017 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth and the following six labor unions: 1 • Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA) • Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) • Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania • Pennsylvania State Education Association (PSEA), Non- Hits: 17
Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 2, 2017 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 16
PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE July 2, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 16
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE June 26, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 16
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf Note: All Other Healthcare includes ambulatory care, hospitals and nursing/residential care facilities. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment. The Minimum Wage Proposal Increase minimum wage from $7.25 to $12.00/hr (+65.5%).  average wage for workers earning <$12.00 is $9.73 (+23.3%).  Effective July 1, 2019. Applies to entire state.  On July 1, 2020 begin six-year phase-in to $15.00 by 2025.  50 cent increment each Hits: 16
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf through CY 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Contacts: Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director The Independent Fiscal Hits: 16
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf Earned Income $1,476 5.4% Other Local Sources $2,126 7.7% Act 1 Allocations (slots) $530 1.9% State (exclude Act 1) $9,492 34.4% Federal $815 3.0% Other (debt related) $855 3.1% Total $27,578 group. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 9 Raise income tax rate (3.07%).  Broad tax base that grows with state economy.  Exempts retirement income.  Relatively low tax rate, but no exemptions/deductions.  PA state-local income tax Hits: 16
ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 13, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 16
FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 8, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 16
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf weeks March 18 First PA death from COVID-19 declared March 23 PA non-life-sustaining businesses closed April 1 Stay-at-home orders all counties April 9 PA schools closed remainder of year May 8-29 57 counties enter yellow status (partial reopen) June 5 All counties in yellow status End of June Most counties in green status (assumption) COVID-19 Hits: 15
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the one more than offset decreased collections from older wells as their fees decline. Net impact: +$13.0 million.  Exempt Status and Other. This includes (1) the net effect of reduced collections from newly-exempt wells and new collections from previously Hits: 15
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 15
platt ppt.pdf time 4 www.bea.gov Regional Accounts Gross Domestic Product  Regional counterpart to U.S. GDP o GDP by state o GDP by metropolitan area Personal Income  Income received by persons from: o Current production (factor payments to labor 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Pre-recession Peak to Trough Percent Changes (Peak-2008Q2, Trough-2009Q3) United States Pennsylvania www.bea.gov Changes in Personal Income Compone nts 9 3.1% 2.6% 1.3% -9.2% 20 Hits: 14
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf weeks March 18 First PA death from COVID-19 declared March 23 PA non-life-sustaining businesses closed April 1 Stay-at-home orders all counties April 9 PA schools closed remainder of year May 8-29 57 counties enter yellow status (partial reopen) June 5 All counties in yellow status End of June All counties in green status (except Lebanon) COVID- Hits: 14
NGPR-2018Q3.pdf quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day (i.e., did not qualify for stripper well status). From the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2018, average production per well increased by 44.0 wells in the third quarter of 2018 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,431 producing horizontal wells in the third quarter, an 11.2 percent increase over the prior year Hits: 14
Newsstand_January_2020.pdf January 2020 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND States Pay $30 Billion per Year on Targeted Tax Breaks A recent article in the Wall Street Journal discusses the benefits Hits: 14
Newsstand_February_2020.pdf February 2020 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Mortgage Originations Grow 87% as Homeowners Refinance The Federal Reserve Bank 29 category (21.7%). Federal Balance of Payments Estimated for Federal Fiscal Year 2018 The Office of the New York State Comptroller released a report that examines the distribution of federal budg- et receipts and expenditures across states in Federal Fiscal Hits: 14
MTR-2017-03.pdf Dollar amounts are in millions. PA CONSUMER DEBT OUTPACES REGION The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) publishes quarterly state data on consumer debt. The data span major loan types, such as mortgage, auto, credit card and student loan, and provide insight as to whether consumers are accumulating or paying down debt. For Pennsylvania and most nearby states, total consumer debt peaked in 2008 prior to the Great Recession. Pennsylvania’s total consumer debt surpassed its 2008 level Hits: 14
MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 20, 2019 The Honorable Patrick M Hits: 14
jackson ppt.pdf Fixed Investment 4.4 8.7 5.3 5.8 Federal Government 4.5 -1.8 -2.5 -3.5 State & Local Government -1.8 -2.2 -2.4 -0.9 Exports 11.3 6.9 4.0 7.6 Imports 7 1.0 1.2 1.6 Light-Vehicle Sales (Millions) 11.6 12.8 13.5 14.7 Housing Starts (Millions) 0.58 0.61 0.73 0.97 Consumer Price Index 1.6 3.1 1.5 1.8 Hits: 14
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf Four Factors Motivate the Result Theme: Short-Term Savings, but Long-Term Costs.  Medicaid expansion: full phase-in of state share (10%) by 2020.  JUA Loan ($200 million) and PlanCon (no appropriation this year). Economy Hits Soft Patch in Simulation.  What happens if PA economy has “normal” growth?  Assumes no recession over next five years. No New State or Federal Policy Changes.  But, the Governor must bring budget into balance.  What about the federal government? Taxes Hits: 14
Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 September 27, 2016 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike fiscal year and subsequent two fiscal years. The table itemizes the cost to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis considers the recent collective Hits: 13
Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 1 February 2, 2017 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable fiscal year and subsequent two fiscal years. The table itemizes the cost to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis uses the following parameters Hits: 13
Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 September 27, 2016 The Honorable Joseph B. Scarnati, III The Honorable Mike fiscal year and subsequent two fiscal years. The table itemizes the cost to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Other State Funds (includes Lottery, State Stores and Restricted Accounts/Augmentations/Other Funds) and Federal Funds. The analysis considers the recent collective Hits: 13
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 11, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 13
SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 13
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf Links funding levels for agency activities with expected outcomes  What are citizens getting in return for the investment of state resources?  What outcomes are agencies achieving with funding for each program?  Emphasizes program results and performance management to inform high-level budget decisions  An alternative budgeting framework used to guide the allocation of state resources to improve outcomes for citizens 3 October 15, 2018 PBB Implementation Status 4  Conducted a review of PBB Hits: 13
PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 8, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 13
PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 13
OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 13
NGPR-2019Q1.pdf quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day (i.e., did not qualify for stripper well status). From the first quarter of 2017 to the first quar- ter of 2019, average production per well increased by 56 wells in the first quarter of 2019 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,765 producing horizontal wells in the first quarter, a 10.7 percent increase over the prior year Hits: 13
NGPR-2018Q4.pdf quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day (i.e., did not qualify for stripper well status). From the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2018, average production per well increased by 57.0 wells in the fourth quarter of 2018 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,606 producing horizontal wells in the fourth quarter, a 10.6 percent increase over the prior year Hits: 13
NGPR-2018Q2.pdf quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day (i.e., did not qualify for stripper well status). From the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2018, average production per well increased by 27.4 wells in the second quarter of 2018 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,194 producing horizontal wells in the second quarter, an 11.5 percent increase over the prior year Hits: 13
NGPR-2018Q1.pdf quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day (i.e., did not qualify for stripper well status). From the first quarter of 2016 to the first quar- ter of 2018, average production per well increased by 24 wells in the first quarter of 2018 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 7,913 producing horizontal wells in the first quarter, a 9.8 percent increase over the prior year Hits: 13
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf for all presenters to be taken at end of session November 14, 2019 2 Economic Development and Business Taxation 30 states perform some form of annual tax credit review  PA is one of 16 “leading” states (Pew, Aug 2019) Since 2008, states make fundamental changes to business taxes  15 states reduce corporate net income rate Hits: 13
CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 26, 2020 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 13
ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Joseph B Hits: 13
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Jun 8 8.1% 74.3 49.6 3.72 1,407 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 13
Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 March 7, 2017 The Honorable Patrick M. Browne Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Specifically, Senator Vulakovich inquired about the treatment of corporate net operating losses (NOLs) in other states as compared to Pennsylvania. Current federal law allows 20 years of NOL carryforwards and 2 years of NOL carrybacks. Thirty Hits: 12
SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 7, 2020 The Honorable Members of Hits: 12
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The brief divides economic development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or Hits: 12
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf Life Expectancy and Median Age Age of Workforce Labor Force Participation Rates Components of Population Change All Data from Pennsylvania State Data Center 3.Dec.2014 3 3.Dec.2014 Broad Demographic Trends 2010 2015 2020 Number Number Growth Number Growth 17.3% Total 309.3 321.4 4.3% 333.9 3.9% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center. half the rate of increase 4 Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964. • Retirements reduce the potential labor force Hits: 12
PICPA_Presentation.pdf yields minimal profits growth. Budget Proposals and Tax Burden Rankings. Deficit projections remain high (~$2.5 - $3.0 billion). PA state-local tax burden similar to U.S. average. Factors That Affect Revenue Shortfall Taxable consumer spending is weak.  Base Leisure-Hospitality 5.1 7.5 13.1 11.2 Local Government -7.3 -6.8 -0.9 0.3 State-Federal Government -2.0 0.3 0.9 -1.5 All Other Sectors 4.3 1.5 9.3 12 Hits: 12
NGPR_2020_Q3.pdf report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99 percent of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional price trends from Bentek Energy. Production Q2 Q3 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 3 - Producing Well Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2020 County and State Comparison Table 3 shows county-level production volume and producing well counts through the third quarter for 2019 and 2020 Hits: 12
NGPR-2020-Q2.pdf report focus on horizontal wells, which comprise over 99 percent of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional price trends from Bentek Energy. Production Q4 Q1 Q2 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 3 - Producing Well Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2020 County and State Comparison Table 3 shows county-level production volume and producing well counts through the second quarter for 2019 and 2020 Hits: 12
NGPR-2020-Q1.pdf focus on horizontal wells, which account for over 99 percent of unconventional production in Pennsylvania. The report also provides (1) state production comparisons from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and (2) recent regional price trends from Bentek Energy. Production Q4 Q1 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 3 - Producing Well Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2020 County and State Comparison Table 3 shows county-level production volume and producing well counts for the first quarter of 2020 and 2019 Hits: 12
NGPR-2019Q4.pdf quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day (i.e., did not qualify for stripper well status). After recording significant gains in 2018 (33.9 percent for the year), average production per well growth moderated in 2019 wells in the fourth quarter of 2019 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 9,319 producing horizontal wells in the fourth quarter, an 8.3 percent increase over the prior year Hits: 12
NGPR-2019Q3.pdf quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day (i.e., did not qualify for stripper well status). After recording significant gains in 2018 (33.9 percent for the year), average production per well growth moderated in 2019 wells in the third quarter of 2019 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 9,116 producing horizontal wells in the third quarter, an 8.1 percent increase over the prior year Hits: 12
NGPR-2019Q2.pdf quarters before that date and (2) produced above 90 mcf per day (i.e., did not qualify for stripper well status). After recording significant gains in 2018 (33.9 percent for the year), average production per well growth moderated in 2019 wells in the second quarter of 2019 and provides a breakdown based on well type (horizontal vs. vertical) and production status. There were 8,897 producing horizontal wells in the second quarter, an 8.5 percent increase over the prior year Hits: 12
NGPR-2016Q2.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide 5 shows county-level tabulations for the calendar year-to-date. Susquehanna County was the highest-producing county in the state, representing nearly one quarter of all horizontal well production (24.0 percent). The largest increases in production among top-ten Hits: 12
MTR-2017-08.pdf drug overdose deaths ranked 18th in the nation. In addition to significant personal costs, the crisis also has implications for state and local budgets and economies. The opioid overdose death rate (rate per 100,000 in population) has increased dramatically. (See 2016 will increase to 16.1 (2,060 opioid deaths), a 4.9 percentage point increase over 2015. 2 Most states surrounding Pennsylvania are not faring better, and four of those states had higher opioid overdose death rates compared to Pennsylvania Hits: 12
MTR-2017-04.pdf The U.S. Census Bureau releases the American Community Survey (ACS) every year, which includes annual migration data between various states. These data can be narrowed down to show the migration of individuals aged 20-35 (millennials) moving to or from Pennsylvania, who obtained an associate’s or higher degree. The graph below displays the top 10 states in 2015 that those with college degrees moved to (outflow) along with graduates who moved from those states (inflow) for Hits: 12
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 12
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the As a result, all wells that previously disputed payment of the impact fee based on the interpretation of stripper well status are required to pay those disputed fees. Net impact: +$8.9 million.  Other/Late. Includes (1) fees paid late Hits: 12
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE To: Matthew Knittel, Director From: Mark J Hits: 12
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf Introduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends and for population, it should be noted that they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2015 to 2017, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.1 percent per annum Hits: 11
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf does not make policy recommendations. Primary duties:  Revenue projections: May 1 and June 15.  Analyze fiscal impact of state employee wage contracts.  Coordinate actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters.  5.25% 5.50% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note: Pennsylvania General Fund expenditures and revenues as a percentage of state GDP. Source: Economic and Budget Outlook, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2016. Demographic Trends 7/14/2017 6 Subtle, yet crucial Hits: 11
NGPR-2017Q1.pdf 2.9% -4.8% -6.5% Notes: Horizontal wells only. Data through 2014 were reported on a half-year basis. Starting in 2015, data are reported on a monthly basis. Figure 1 displays the number of new horizontal wells spud in Figure 2: Calendar Year-to-Date Production, by County Independent Fiscal Office 7 First Quarter 2017 Table 7 displays a state comparison of gross production from all well types. Among the top-ten producing states, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the Hits: 11
NGPR-2016Q4.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations Report Table 5 shows county-level tabulations for the calendar year. Susquehanna County was the highest- producing county in the state, representing nearly one quarter of all horizontal well production (23.8%). The largest increases in production among top-ten counties Hits: 11
NGPR-2016Q3.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Unless otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide tabulations 5 shows county-level tabulations for the calendar year-to-date. Susquehanna County was the highest-producing county in the state, representing nearly one quarter of all horizontal well production (23.7 percent). The largest increases in production among top-ten Hits: 11
NGPR-2016Q1.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. Except as otherwise noted, this report uses those data, in conjunction with DEP data on wells spud, to develop statewide 5 shows county-level tabulations for the calendar year-to-date. Susquehanna County was the top producing county in the state, representing nearly one quarter of all horizontal well production. Seven of the top ten producing counties registered production gains, while Hits: 11
MTR-2015-09.pdf the two years. The database of matched returns allows the IRS to identify a migrating taxpayer’s origin and destination states. The data reveal a net outflow from Pennsylvania of 21,578 individuals (includes dependents) and $935 million of adjusted gross income reported on tax returns for tax year 2012. The states of New York (6,925), New Jersey (3,858) and Maryland (1,056) were the primary states to record a Hits: 11
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projec- tions for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assump- tions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 11
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the million.  Disputes/Other. 3 Collections for CY 2018 included previously disputed payments related to the interpretation of stripper well status and late payments from prior years. This component includes the total impact of both factors: Estimated impact: -$7.5 million Hits: 11
IFO ppt.pdf Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Five–Year Outlook Report • Report and presentations will be posted on website: www.ifo.state.pa.us • Modeling is simple and transparent. – Projections motivated by economics and demographics. – Focus on growth rates, not absolute levels 2012 Revenue Conference Economic Forecast Weakens Annual Average Growth Rates or Levels 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-17 Real Gross State Product June 2011 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% January 2012 1.8% 1.6% 2 Hits: 11
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf pandemic scenario Tips -1.5 high degree of uncertainty Total -25.5 excludes any unreported income UC and Individual Rebates State UC $5.2 average of $330 per week Federal Pandemic UC 15.9 program has concluded Other Federal Assistance 10 Losses October 29, 2020 3 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 Hits: 10
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf Introduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends and for population, it should be noted that they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2016 to 2018, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.1 percent per annum Hits: 10
RB-2018-01.pdf adopted by school districts for that year. The IFO utilizes that information, along with taxable assessed values published by the State Tax Equalization Board (STEB), to estimate current-year collections for school districts. For the FY 2017-18 estimate, the office for special education expenditures is projected to increase moderately in the forecast. The value of that exception is affected by state funding, and the value increases if state funding for special education does not keep pace with the costs incurred by Hits: 10
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director January 19, 2017 1/19/2017 1 Background and Overview Independent Fiscal Office started September 2011.  Provide budget projections: November, May/June and January.  Special reports at request of General Assembly. First: Provide some context on property taxes.  School district reliance on property tax.  Compare PA and US average state-local tax structures. Next: Consider our last analysis: SB 76 of 2013. Conclude: Consider current proposal and forecasts. 1/19 Hits: 10
NGPR-2017Q4.pdf 140 - 355 22 - 78 0 - 20 Billion Cubic Feet Independent Fiscal Office 7 Fourth Quarter 2017 Table 7 displays a state comparison of gross production from all well types. Among the top-ten producing states, Louisiana, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest year-over-year production gains for 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska, Oklahoma and New Hits: 10
NGPR-2017Q3.pdf 102 - 268 20 - 61 0 - 17 Billion Cubic Feet Independent Fiscal Office 7 Third Quarter 2017 Table 7 displays a state comparison of gross production from all well types. Among the top-ten producing states, Louisiana, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first eight months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and Hits: 10
NGPR-2017Q2.pdf 65 - 177 10 - 42 0 - 9 Billion Cubic Feet Independent Fiscal Office 7 Second Quarter 2017 Table 7 displays a state comparison of gross production from all well types. Among the top-ten producing states, Ohio and West Virginia recorded the largest production gains for the first five months of 2017. Pennsylvania, Alaska and New Hits: 10
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 10
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf June Retail Spending Increased 6.8% in Pennsylvania The U.S. Census Bureau recently released monthly state retail sales for June. Pennsylvania spending on automotive and other vehicle dealers (11.9%), food and beverage (12.0%) and Personal Income Grows by 12.0% in Q2 On September 24, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income data for 2020 Q2. Pennsylvania personal income grew 12.0% in the second quarter compared to the prior Hits: 10
MER-2014-06.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 10
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the spud did not offset reduced collections from older wells as their fees decline. Net impact: ‐$7.8 million.  Exempt status and other. Includes the net effect of: (1) reduced collections from newly‐exempt wells as their production falls below the Hits: 10
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf House State Government Committee Informational Hearing: Independent Fiscal Office August 30, 2017 Opening Remarks by Director Matthew Knittel Good morning Mr. Chairman monitor that tax source as we prepare to release our five-year budget projections in November. Related to revenues, the state economy is performing as expected. Through July, the labor market produced 62,800 net jobs (preliminary, average gain) relative to Hits: 10
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report posted to IFO website: www.ifo.state.pa.us.  Demographic Outlook  New projections from Penn State Data Center.  Economic Outlook  Latest projections from IHS Global Insight.  Expenditure Outlook  Special focus on healthcare Hits: 10
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE February 28, 2020 The Honorable Stan Saylor Hits: 10
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf the departure of a staff member. Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the statutory duties, the IFO seeks to work with the majority and minority chairs of the Appropriations Committees to analyze the state economy and revenues. The deadlines for budget-related duties are as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state Hits: 10
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 10
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J a n u a r y 2 0 1 3 Nov 7.8% 181 12.1% 72.9 50.7 3.31 1,426 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 10
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Oct-12 7 9.8% 78.3 51.5 3.85 1,441 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 10
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 Jul 8.3% 104 10.3% 78.3 51.5 3.85 1,441 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 10
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf adopted by school districts for that year. The IFO utilizes that information, along with taxable assessed values published by the State Tax Equalization Board (STEB), to estimate current-year collections for school districts. Data on Act 1 allocations are released by for special education expenditures is projected to remain flat throughout the forecast. The value of that exception is affected by state funding, and the value increases if state funding for special education does not keep pace with the costs incurred by Hits: 9
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf adopted by school districts for that year. The IFO utilizes that information, along with taxable assessed values published by the State Tax Equalization Board (STEB), to estimate current-year collections for school districts. Data on Act 1 allocations are released by for special education expenditures is projected to remain flat throughout the forecast. The value of that exception is affected by state funding, and the value increases if state funding for special education does not keep pace with the costs incurred by Hits: 9
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf potential employment impact and possible tax implications. PPP Detail: Loans by Size, Type of Firm and Sector The SBA publishes state-specific data on its website for two groups of firms: (1) firms that received loans under $150,000 and (2 be effectively treated as taxable income. Some members of Congress have noted that the ruling contradicts lawmakers’ intent and have stated their intent to enact 5 In April 2020, U.S. payroll employment declined by 20.1 million (-13.4 percent Hits: 9
RB-2015-02-annual_vs_lifetime_ETR.pdf Independent Fiscal Office February 2015 Effective Tax Rate Comparisons – Severance Taxes An effective tax rate is useful when comparing state severance taxes because it incorporates not only the statutory tax rate, but also the impact of any special provisions on gas extracted.  Volume. The rate is expressed in cents per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of gas extracted. Special Provisions – State severance taxes often contain special provisions that reduce the tax paid in various circumstances. Examples of special provisions include:  Hits: 9
QRE_FY14-15.pdf Quarterly Revenue Estimates About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the Carson Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 E-mail: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Contacts: Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director __________________________________________________________ The Independent Fiscal Hits: 9
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf debt: deleveraging. Now, other factors responsible. o Government tightening. o Firms not investing due to uncertainty; weak demand. Federal and state gov’ts unlikely to contribute. o Federal – debt ceiling debate, continuing sequester. o State and Local – pensions and health care benefits. o Monetary Policy - pull back to start soon. 24 . Sept . 2013 4 Contributions Hits: 9
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx 6,491 6,627 6,864 7,119 7,048 6,886 6,639 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% State & Local Government 15,836 16,458 17,234 18,024 18,596 19,334 20,049 20,989 22,035 62.24 63.61 65.21 65.02 68.57 68.65 68.46 3.3% 2.8% 1.5% State & Local Government 27.37 28.13 28.95 30.09 30.83 32.17 33.03 34.15 35.34 Hits: 9
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf for review.  If disapproved, return to IFO with recommendations. January 22, 2019 1 General PBB Methodology Modeled on Washington State (implemented 1994). Define agency activities or services they provide.  In many cases, line item separated into two or more 2018 PBB review schedule set by Budget Office and IFO Mar to Jul general research, design data template, contact other states (NM, WA, MN), update to PBB Board staff Mid August first meeting with each agency, transmit data template Sept to Hits: 9
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO)  All states have a legislative fiscal office.  Housed within legislature. Have governing boards.  The IFO is separate from the Executive November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. A Quick Tour Budget Status.  Where are we? How did we get here? Demographic Outlook.  Suggests economic and budgetary challenges. Economic Outlook.  Hits: 9
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf the impact from Act 43 of 2017, which required all internet sellers with annual sales above $10,000 in the state to collect tax or comply with reporting requirements. The revised estimate of this provision increases revenues by roughly $200 million 3) an unexpected pull-forward of settlement payments for old tax years to benefit from the higher federal deduction of state taxes at the 35% rate (tax year 2017) versus the lower 21% rate (tax year 2018). If correct, much of Hits: 9
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf data are not seasonally adjusted. U.S. Labor Productivity is for All Nonfarm Businesses and is a quarterly annualized rate. State productivity data not published. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Payroll Jobs Recover for November are preliminary. YOY is year-over-year. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. Permanent Job Loss, But Some Subsectors Gain January 21, 2021 8 Number (000s) Change Nov 2019 Hits: 9
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf tend to have greater risk. Shared-risk provisions might slightly dampen incentives that favor risk taking. •PA and most other states need risk-taking to work out well or else contributions will rise significantly. Already public pension plans generally have bad least 1 “standard deviation” •For U.S. as a whole, today, that’s about $425 billion. About 27% of all state-local taxes, up from 7.6% in 1995, 2.7% in 1985 •Even if amortized slowly* it is a lot Hits: 9
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 9
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 9
2001_hr266.pdf The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania maintains two 6 Statewide pension plans, the Public School Employees' Retirement 7 System (PSERS) and the State Employees' Retirement System 8 (SERS); and 9 WHEREAS, Nearly all full-time and part-time public school 10 employees are required to join PSERS and most full-time and 11 part-time State employees are required to join SERS; and 12 WHEREAS, Both systems are financed through employer and 13 employee contributions and Hits: 9
WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf certain amount. Fees remitted each spring and disbursed each summer to various entities  Set amounts go to county and state conservation organizations ($7.5-$8M) and state agencies ($10.5M) each year.  The remaining amount is divided between the counties/municipalities with eligible wells (60%) and Hits: 8
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf on the next page displays estimates of royalty payments for the top eight producing counties and the rest of the state for the most recent eight-year period that data are available. 2 The analysis estimates that natural gas royalty payments gas royalty payments for two reasons:  There may be cases where leaseholders reside and file returns from counties (or states) other than the land under contract and do not reside in one of the top eight producing counties shown in Hits: 8
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf 5 FY 2016‐17 Preliminary Balance Sheet Beginning Balance ‐‐‐ Current Year Revenues $31,525 Less Refund Reserve ‐1,370 Less State Expenditures ‐32,065 Lapses 50 ======= Ending Balance ‐1,860 Note: dollar amounts are in millions. IFO January Report 8.Jun Longer‐Term Outlook Working Age Population Projected to Decline Wave of Retirements Next Decade All Demographic Projections from the Penn State Data Center; Reflects U.S. Census Estimates for 2015 8.Jun.2016 11 2015 Snapshot by Generation thousands of residents Hits: 8
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf Aging Populace Contributes to Tax Base Erosion. 3 Today’s Presentation 12.May.2016 Demographic Trends All Projections from Penn State Data Center Reflects US Census Estimates for 2015 Working Age Population Projected to Decline Demographic Wave: Retirements Next Decade 4 Age 50‐64 ‐512 ‐18.8% 10 Migration Is Crucial to Growth 2015‐20 2020‐30 2030‐40 2015‐40 Start of Decade/Period 12,803 13,027 13,426 12,803 Births less Deaths 109 128 ‐49 189 Net Domestic Hits: 8
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf Social Assist 11.1 22.6 26.9 27.0 Leisure-Hospitality 7.9 12.4 8.6 8.0 State-Federal Gov’t 0.2 1.0 -0.6 -1.0 Local Gov’t -6.7 -2.2 0.6 Instant Tickets 2,592 2,793 2,782 2,912 3,021 Numbers Games 597 581 590 570 558 In-State Lotto 250 265 260 282 289 Multi-State Lotto 381 497 370 425 437 Growth Rates 0.5% 8.3% Hits: 8
PEW_Presentation(Video).pptx How States Are Improving Tax Incentives for Jobs and Growth A national assessment of evaluation practices Chaaron Pearson cpearson@pewtrusts.org The Trusts 11/16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per year • Evaluation is a proven way to Hits: 8
PEW_Presentation(Video).ppsx How States Are Improving Tax Incentives for Jobs and Growth A national assessment of evaluation practices Chaaron Pearson cpearson@pewtrusts.org The Trusts 11/16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per year • Evaluation is a proven way to Hits: 8
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Philadelphia 2018: The State of the City The PEW Charitable Trusts released a report on Philadelphia that shows bullish economic trends since the start Hits: 8
MTR-2017-05.pdf For the latest three months, collections have increased by only 0.8 percent. Sales tax revenues are critical to the state budget because each percentage point of growth generates roughly $100 million of new revenues. Weak sales tax revenues are not limited to Pennsylvania. As shown by the table, some adjacent states have also experienced modest (or negative) growth of sales tax revenues. Four factors impact spending trends and could motivate that Hits: 8
MER-2014-08.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 8
MER-2013-11.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 8
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the payments from prior years, (2) late or unpaid fees for CY 2019 and (3) wells that enter or exit exempt status. Estimated impact: -$13.0 million. 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Distributions 1 $173,259 $209,557 $251,831 $200,365 Hits: 8
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Revenue and Expenditure Detail, Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson| The PEW Charitable Trusts  Evaluation of State Economic Development Tax Incentives November 16, 2017 2 Budget Emphasis: Cost Containment State governments have used three methods.  Efficiency Manager  Economic development tax incentives project.  Ensure tax incentives are effective, accountable and fiscally sound.  Work with states to develop and implement best practices. Previous Experience and Education  Provided research and analysis on local and state public Hits: 8
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 8
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report M a r c h 2 0 1 3 Jan 7.9% 195.0 4 10.6% 77.6 54.2 3.67 1,515 2.0% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 8
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf appropriation for the current fiscal year. Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the statutory duties, the IFO seeks to work with the majority and minority chairs of the Appropriations Committees to analyze the state economy and revenues. The deadlines for budget-related duties are as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state Hits: 8
Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf November 14, 2019 Modernizing Pennsylvania’s Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Katherine Loughead Policy Analyst Center for State Tax Policy Tax Foundation kloughead@taxfoundation.org PENNSYLVANIA’S TAX CODE CONTAINS MULTIPLE BARRIERS TO BUSINESS TAX COMPETITIVENESS STATE  Uncompetitive treatment of NOLs  Room for improvement in treatment of capital investment  High Corporate Net Income Tax Hits: 7
SR2017-06.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE December 6, 2017 Douglas E. Hill Executive Hits: 7
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf 16.Dec.2014 2 Independent Fiscal Office Scope and assumptions. Potential consolidation savings and costs. • Administrative savings, property tax relief, state funding, salary standardization and debt service. Calculation of real estate tax millage. • Implications for taxpayers. 16.Dec.2014 3 Presentation 50% 75% $6.95 million $13.90 million $20.85 million Consolidated district would have received $16.9 million from state tax on slots for property tax relief (down from $17.7 million). Countywide avg. = $167 (varies by district). Consolidated district Hits: 7
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 7
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for that quarter. For the entire state, wages grew by 4.5 percent in 2019 Q4 from the prior year.  For 2020 Q1, it is known that the personal income tax (PIT) withholding growth rate for the state was roughly 3.5 percent, and that rate should also reflect the average growth rate across all counties for the Hits: 7
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf individual income and corporate net income tax codes that generally became effective for tax year 2018. Recently, the IRS released state level tax data that reveal the impact that tax law changes had on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. This research brief 6% bracket).  Allowed a new 20 percent deduction for certain qualified business income.  Repealed itemized deductions except for state and local taxes (SALT) paid (up to $10,000), interest on home mortgage debt below $750,000, charitable contributions and Hits: 7
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf Q4 November 18, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 6 billions of dollars FPUC $15.9 billion PUA $7.0 billion LWA $1.7 billion Other $1.4 billion State UC $5.2 billion Impact Payments $11.0 billion Note: Lost labor income includes wages ($20.8b), self-employed income Hits: 7
MTR-2017-12.pdf PIT, the December estimated payment was very strong as many taxpayers likely remitted payments early to qualify for the uncapped state and local tax deduction. It is also possible that some taxpayers overpaid their tax liability because the overpayments are currently MONTHLY TRENDS December 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/ Documents/MQRE_FY17-18_Update.pdf. 2 It also adjusts monthly projections for the earlier-than- Hits: 7
MTR-2017-11.pdf General Fund revenues compared to the IFO’s official estimate is due to earlier-than-anticipated revenues from (1) a state stores fund transfer ($100.0 million), (2) a slots license fee ($50.0 million) and (3) a transfer from a that reflect the impact of recently enacted legislation. 2 The legislation was enacted as part of the FY 2017-18 state budget. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Nov-17 $2,306 $2,159 $147 Growth 16 Hits: 7
MTR-2017-07.pdf In June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updated the Quarterly State Personal Income series for the first quarter of 2017. The data include personal income and its components, which can be the country, Pennsylvania’s average annual personal income growth has kept pace with the U.S. average (2.9%). Most states surrounding Pennsylvania show similar trends in personal income. However, Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia had below average personal income growth Hits: 7
MTR-2016-06.pdf for global and U.S. economic growth. Despite these trends, Pennsylvania’s economy remains relatively healthy; however, the release of state economic data typically lags national sources. One timely indicator of the state economy is employment growth, which remains solid. Based on data from the first five months of the year, the state Hits: 7
MRU-2020-3.pdf 2019). Liquor tax collections displayed some weakness (-$2.6 million) for the month, possibly impacted by the closure of the state liquor stores. March personal income tax (PIT) collections were below estimate by $116.0 million, with almost all of the 2020 Realty transfer (RTT) and inheritance (INH) tax collections performed well in March, despite the closure of county courthouses and stay-at-home advisories. RTT was only $3.3 million below estimate for the month, while INH exceeded estimate by $26 Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf From April Low, but Employment Growth Decelerates On August 21, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July state employment report. The data reveal that by July, nearly one-half (529,100, not seasonally adjusted) of the year-over- 2 billion in Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) for individuals that have exhausted regular unemployment compensation (UC) benefits. Finally, the state-funded UC program has provided an additional $4.7 billion in support to unemployed workers. The impact of the UC Hits: 7
MER-2014-07.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 7
MER-2014-04.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average of realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 7
MER-2014-03.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s rate of realty transfer taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third Hits: 7
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf 7 18.7 Leisure-Hospitality 7.5 13.1 9.6 Local Gov’t -6.8 -0.9 -0.7 State-Federal Gov’t 0.3 0.9 0.1 All Other 1.5 9.3 4.4 Annual Job Gains Instant Tickets 2,305 2,445 2,592 2,793 2,805 Numbers Games 631 611 597 581 595 In-State Lotto 279 296 250 265 248 Multi-State Lotto 485 447 381 497 357 Growth Rates 6.3% 2.7% Hits: 7
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u n e 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 7
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Unemployment Rate The number of individuals over-year change in average price level. Includes outlays for energy. 9 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 7
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 3 Dec 7.8% 11.3% 73.8 53.1 3.31 1,498 1.6% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 7
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 Nov-12 7 10.0% 82.6 51.7 3.75 1,412 2.2% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 7
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report A u g u s t 2 0 1 2 May 8.2% 99.3 8.7% 72.3 49.8 3.44 1,379 1.4% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Households. 2/ U.S. Department of Labor - Survey of Hits: 7
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf United States Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 8.1% 156.7 6.1% 8.6% 73.2 49.7 3.54 1,362 1.7% Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Monthly Economic Report J u l y 2 0 1 2 April 7.4% 7 Hits: 7
Links New Residential Sales • Case-Shiller Home Prices • Consumer Confidence PA Economic Indicators • Labor Force and Employment • Quarterly Personal Income • Gross State Product • Business Outlook, Philadelphia Fed State Government • Department of Labor and Industry • Department of Revenue • General Assembly • Office of the Budget • Office of the Governor State Hits: 7
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Website: www Hits: 6
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 6
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 12, 2019 The Honorable Robert M Hits: 6
Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf Chamber of Business and Industry March 26, 2015  Role of the Independent Fiscal Office.  Snapshots of the major state pension plans: • State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS). • Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS).  Useful terms in the pension debate: • Defined benefit plans Hits: 6
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf 0.8 100.0 100.0 Note: CAGR is compound annual growth rate. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Penn State Data Center. 12.June.2014 4 Annual Growth Rate: Ages 20-64 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% Demographic Waves 12.June.2014 6 PA Demographics 2010 (Data are in thousands. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Penn State Data Center) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Gen Y or Millennials 26% Gen X or Baby Bust 25% Hits: 6
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf 22 Beginning Balance $257 $2 -- -- Available Revenue 29,652 30,936 $31,596 $36,406 Lapses 221 75 100 100 State Expenditures -30,127 -31,535 -33,443 -39,486 Ending Balance 2 -524 -1,746 -2,980 Note: figures in 2 47.5 Rapidly Aging Population.  First Baby Boomers turn age 65 in 2012.  PA is 6th oldest state based on median age (40.7 years). Surge in Retirements.  Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for Hits: 6
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf 8 14.5 Leisure‐Hospitality 5.3 9.5 14.7 Local Gov’t ‐7.5 ‐7.5 ‐4.0 State‐Federal Gov’t ‐2.0 1.4 1.0 All Other 4.1 4.6 8.7 Total 47.6 Impact of Demographics on the Long‐Term Economic and Budget Outlook 10 May 13, 2016 All Demographic Projections from Penn State Data Center. Reflects U.S. Census Estimates for 2015 • Large Wave of Retirements Next Decade • Demographic Changes Contribute to Tax Hits: 6
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf wave.  First Boomers turned 65 in 2012.  Will peak in approximately a decade.  Other factors contribute to state aging.  Life expectancies to accelerate after pause.  Small migration into state for age 75+. May 24, 2017 3 Change Over Next Decade Residents (000s) Decade Change Age Group 2015 2025 Number Hits: 6
PASBO_Feb_25_2021.pdf for December are preliminary. YOY is year-over-year. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. February 25, 2021 4 Drilling Down to the Subsector Level Number (000s) Change Dec 2019 Dec Number Percent Education Colleges-Universities, Prof. Schools 170 130 -40 -23.4% Local School Districts 282 265 -17 -6.1% State Education (state system, related) 60 52 -8 -13.9% Private Schools (K-12) 48 48 0 -0.8% Significant Contraction Hits: 6
NewsStand_2019_September.pdf September 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Lower Mortgage Payments Bolster Disposable Income According to the CoreLogic Insight year. The decline in typical payments is due to lower mortgage rates and slower growth in home prices. The article states that homebuyers can expect lower typical mortgage payments through June 2020. According to IHS Markit, personal disposable income increased for Hits: 6
NewsStand_2019_May.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Real State GDP Growth is 2.1% for CY 2018 On May 1, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state Hits: 6
NewsStand_2019_July.pdf July 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Nursing Home Costs Outpacing Medical and Consumer Inflation On June 25 375 per year. Long-term care is not covered by Medicare and cost increases are absorbed by private wealth or state Medicaid programs. Student Debt Cancellation Led to General Deleveraging The July NBER Digest summarized a working paper that explored the Hits: 6
MTR-2016-10.pdf are in millions. RECENT TRENDS IN WAGE INCOME Wages and salaries earned by workers are an integral part of the state and national economies. For Pennsylvania, wage income ($308.2 billion) comprised nearly one half (48.4%) of total personal income total wage growth can serve as both a coincident (i.e., current or real time) and leading indicator of the state economy. Since 2010, statewide annual wage growth has ranged from 2% to 4% (3.3% average), well below the wage Hits: 6
MTR-2016-08.pdf Monthly Update 1 , which provides historical revenues, retail sales (demand) and average retail prices of electricity on national, regional and state levels. For Pennsylvania, these data show that from 2005 to 2015, demand for electricity displayed nearly flat growth (-0.1% shopped for electricity suppliers remained constant, while the number of residential customers who shopped declined. More recently, residential customers have started to return to competitive suppliers, but that trend has yet to induce lower residential prices. The EIA projects average U Hits: 6
MTR-2016-03.pdf in millions. BEA RELEASES EARNINGS FOR 2015 On March 24 th , the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state Personal Income data for 2015 Q4. 1 Personal Income is a broad measure that includes all types of income such of total), and gross earnings increased by 3.0%. The next three largest sectors recorded modest gains in gross earnings: state and local government (11.0% of total gross earnings, 1.6% growth), wholesale- retail (10.4%, 1.8% growth) and Hits: 6
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 717-230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us | www.ifo.state.pa.us Staff Acknowledgements Stacey Knavel, Principal Revenue Analyst Lesley McLaughlin, Revenue Analyst II Jesse Hits: 6
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf the outbreak. April employment figures (released May 22) will provide a more complete snapshot of the pandemic’s impact on state employment. Pennsylvania Initial UC Claims Remain High, Multiple Sectors Heavily Impacted For the week ending April 11, the U.S. Department of Labor released state data that show that estimated initial claims for unemployment compensation (UC) remain high (238,357), but declined compared to the Hits: 6
MER-2014-11.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 6
MER-2014-02.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s rate of realty transfer taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third Hits: 6
MER-2013-12.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s rate of realty transfer taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third Hits: 6
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf and nearly all of that impact should manifest itself in the final payments over the coming months. Pennsylvania Economy The state economy seems to be in a good position, with the latest Philadelphia CPI-U reading running low (0.8% in temper this optimistic outlook. First, sales tax collections were weak in January, and nearly flat from the prior year. Many states experienced similar weakness in sales tax revenues. At the national level, there is concern regarding the impact of federal deficits Hits: 6
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf Executives May 15, 2019 U.S. and PA Economic Trends May 15, 2019 1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 2.7% Wages-Salaries 5.1% 2.9% 4.6% IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends May 15, 2019 2 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 United States Real GDP 2.2% 4.2% 3.4% 2.2% 3.2% Wages-Salaries 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% Hits: 6
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf an assumed tax base growth of 1 percent. Tax base growth is informed by taxable assessed values published by the State Tax Equalization Board (STEB). Data on Act 1 allocations are released by PDE each fiscal year, and the amounts for prior years and (3) changes in total assessed value from normal economic growth and/or appeals. See http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/RB-2020-COVID- 19%20Local%20Revenue%20Impact.pdf. Actual 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021- Hits: 6
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. PA Economic Forecast Revisions Final Preliminary Projection Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 4 United States 2017.1 2017.2 2017.3 2017.4 Real GDP 1.2% 3.1% 3.2% 2.6% Personal Consumption Healthcare-Social 14.3 11.2 23.7 24.6 Leisure-Hospitality 5.1 7.5 13.1 17.9 State-Federal Govt -2.0 0.3 0.9 -2.0 Local Government -7.3 -6.8 -0.9 -1.8 Hits: 6
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf three of those sources, so that the number of unique filers is smaller. • Roughly 1.6 million filers reported a state and local income tax deduction ($11.3 billion) and the same number reported a local property tax deduction ($8.2 cut for Pennsylvania residents of $5.9 to $6.6 billion for FFY 2018-19. Other national organizations have published state-level estimates of the federal income tax cut. The Tax Policy Center estimates that 63.2 percent of Pennsylvania "tax Hits: 5
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the and will disclose the methodologies, data sources and assumptions used in published reports and estimates. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Telephone: 717-230-8293 Email: contact@ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 5
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 29, 2019 2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 2.6% Wages-Salaries 5.1% 2.9% 4.6% IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 29, 2019 3 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 United States Real GDP 2.2% 4.2% 3.5% 2.5% 1.9% Wages-Salaries 4.6% 4.5% 4.2% Hits: 5
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf Q4 December 9, 2020 2 -$15 -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q2 Q3 Q4 lost labor income state and federal UC + economic impact payments net impact $12.6 $7.0 -$2.8 -$11.7 -$7.4 -$6.4 6 billions of dollars FPUC $15.9 billion PUA $7.0 billion LWA $1.7 billion Other $1.4 billion State UC $5.2 billion Impact Payments $11.0 billion PPP (excluded) $20.7 billion Note: Lost labor income includes wages Hits: 5
NFIB_Presentation.pdf credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining agreements. ◦ Special studies at request of General Assembly. Dec.13.2017 2 A Unique State Office Structured to provide independent analysis. ◦ In most states, a similar office resides within the legislature. ◦ IFO does not provide fiscal notes for proposed legislation. There is no governing Hits: 5
NewsStand_2019_December.pdf December 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND November Retail Sales An article by the Wall Street Journal reports late January. Metro Unemployment Rates A recent brief by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia compares unemployment rates in metropolitan sta- tistical areas (MSAs) across the past three business cycles and explores factors that increase cyclical sensitivity. While national and state Hits: 5
Newsstand_2019_April.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Labor Market Slows in 2019 Q1 On April 19, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state employment data for March. The data reveal a nota- ble slowdown in the number of jobs created for 2019 Q1 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-1.pdf million. It is expected that tax filers are taking advantage of the final year of the uncapped federal deduction for state and local taxes (SALT), by overpaying for tax year 2017. This behavioral response to federal tax law changes is likely MONTHLY TRENDS January 2018 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/ Documents/MQRE_FY17-18_Update.pdf. Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund $3,137 Hits: 5
MTR-2018-02.pdf percent) above estimate. Non-tax revenue also exceeded estimate by $123 million due to earlier-than- expected transfers from the state store fund ($85.1 million) and various special funds ($48 million). Additionally, Act 43 of 2017 authorized the securitization of baseline estimates did not change from June 2017. See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http:// www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18_Update.pdf. Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Fund $3,581 Hits: 5
MTR-2017-10.pdf above estimate, largely driven by escheat revenues, which were $11.5 million (66.1 percent) above estimate. Various national and state data suggest that taxpayers shifted income out of calendar year 2016 in anticipation of a significant federal income tax rate MONTHLY TRENDS OCTOBER 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18.pdf. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through October Diff. w/ Estimate Hits: 5
MTR-2016-05.pdf through April 2016 show a continuation of this trend, with annual growth of 6.1%. By contrast, sales at gasoline stations have become a less significant component of consumer spending. In 2012, gasoline station sales comprised 14.1% of total sales, whereas in 2016, these sales comprised 9.0% of the total. This contraction Hits: 5
MTR-2015-11.pdf 0% per annum from 2005 ($22.3 billion). The export growth rate outpaced that of the Pennsylvania economy (measured by state gross domestic product), which grew at an average rate of 3.1% per annum over the same time period. The annual growth rates (AAGR) from 2005 to 2015. The data represent the total dollar value of exports, based on the state from which the merchandise begins its journey to the port of export. For some commodities, export values may represent the Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf revenue (-20%) and business tax (-20%) are projected to record the largest percentage declines. Across the six regions of the state outlined in the model, the share of municipalities at risk for cash insolvency over the two-year period ranges from offset the decline in wages and salaries (-8.5%) for the month. Personal consumption fell 16.9% in April as states continued to implement stay-at-home measures to help contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Consumers Spent Roughly Hits: 5
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf for both passenger vehicles (-69.6%) and commercial vehicles (-25.3%). Commercial vehicle trips rebounded quickly after the expiration of stay-at-home orders, growing 0.8% in June relative to the prior year. For the remainder of 2020, commercial vehicle adjusted) from November 2019. These jobs include elementary and secondary school teachers, teachers’ aids, clerical workers and other support staff. State education jobs declined 14.4% (-9,100) from the prior year. These include employees of intermediate units, the Pennsylvania State Hits: 5
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf Health-Social 14.4 11.7 15.9 15.3 Leisure-Hospitality 5.3 9.5 12.3 7.4 State-Federal Govt -2.0 1.4 0.8 -1.2 Local Govt -7.5 -7.5 -3.4 -1.6 January 2015-16 2016-17 Growth Instant Tickets $1,572 $1,579 0.5% Numbers $ 335 $ 346 3.2% In-State Lotto $ 141 $ 142 0.7% Multi-State Lotto 350 226 -35.5% Total 2,398 2,293 -4.4% Note Hits: 5
MER-2015-03.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 5
MER-2015-02.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 5
MER-2015-01.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Office - Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat- est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year-over-year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 5
MER-2014-10.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 5
MER-2014-05.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average of realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 5
MER-2014-01.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate The number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s rate of realty transfer taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third Hits: 5
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. 1 Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the to markets. Such costs are deducted to approximate the value of gas at the wellhead, the point at which other states levy severance taxes. 4 The annual ETR fluctuates based on the movement of its three components: fee revenues, production and Hits: 5
Sen_Maj_Pol_Comm_Brain_Drain_Workshop_04_30_2019.pdf Policy Committee Public Workshop: Student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania April 30, 2019 Submitted by: Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 1 Year Population Estimate Population Change 1 Births Deaths Natural Increase Net 000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Inflow 25-34 Outflow 25-34 4 State 1 Inflow to PA Outflow from PA Net Migration New York 21,445 14,280 7,165 New Jersey 20 Hits: 4
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf school property tax.  Property taxes to service debt existing as of Dec. 31, 2011 retained and phased-out.  State funding based on FY 2012-13 district collections. Three sources:  Raise sales tax rate from 6% to 7%; expand taxes comprise:  roughly 0.4 to 0.9 percent of business receipts.  one-third of total taxes to state and local govt’s.  Potential for significant reduction in tax.  Firms with much real property gain. 1. Large Hits: 4
RTR-2014-07.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For the first month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund million from the Machinery and Equipment Loan Fund, $30 million from the Volunteer Companies Loan Fund, $8 million from the State Gaming Fund, $2 million from the Manville Property Damage Settlement Account, and $6 million from the Alternative Fuels Incentive Fund Hits: 4
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts from IHS Global Insight. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real Gross State Product May 2012 1.9% 1.5% 2.3% 3.0% Jan 2013 1.2% 1.8% 1.5% 2 Insight. Primary Economic Driver: Consumer Spending  Consumers must drive economic growth. o Comprise 70% of economic activity. o Federal, state and local budgets are constrained. o Weak overseas demand.  Sales and Use Tax collections have been very weak. o Hits: 4
REU-2019-12.pdf million, largely due to lower than projected quarterly payments (-$53.2 million). Prior to the implementation of the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions under the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), taxpayers had an incentive to pay 7 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 6, 2019 The Honorable Vincent Hughes Hits: 4
Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 6, 2019 The Honorable Mario Scavello Hits: 4
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE August 16, 2019 The Honorable Mario Scavello Hits: 4
QRR_2017Q3.pdf Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund (page 4). The most recent publication detailing these estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its revenue estimates with actual revenue collec- tions. The detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s Monthly and Quar- terly Revenue Estimates Hits: 4
QRR_2016Q3.pdf Fund and Lottery Fund (page 4). The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual reve- nue collections 40.0 million (-2.2%), largely due to a lower-than-expected transfer from gaming revenues and weakness in in- stant ticket sales. 529 2,495 2,732 859 664 1,131 554 2,617 2,786 865 679 1,171 Hits: 4
Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf Pension Debate Rotary Club of York July 15, 2015 Role of the Independent Fiscal Office. Overview of the two major state pension plans and their funding. Unfunded liabilities: How did they occur? What are the projected trends? Five-year projections (current 3 billion 10-Year Average Funding Sources 13% member 17% employer 70% investments 17% member 16% employer 67% investments Funded Status 59.3% 62.0% Annual Benefits Paid 3 $2.9 billion $6.1 billion 7/15/2015 4 SERS and Hits: 4
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf confidence. Low inflation. 12.Feb.2015 2 Today’s Presentation  Act 120 of 2010 Creates Independent Fiscal Office. • Hiring starts September 2011. Currently 9 staff. • Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. • Revenue projections used for advisory purposes only.  Our 19 2019-20 Beginning Balance $81 $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- Available Revenue 28,700 29,023 29,897 30,836 31,794 32,835 State Expenditures -29,027 -30,777 -32,079 -33,280 -34,358 -35,464 Current Year Balance -327 -1,754 -2 Hits: 4
Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf Liabilities Rotary Club of Harrisburg April 11, 2016  Role of the Independent Fiscal Office. Overview of the two major state pension plans and their funding. Unfunded liabilities: How did they occur? What are the projected trends? Five‐year projections (current 7 billion 10‐Year Average Funding Sources 15% member 24% employer 61% investments 18% member 21% employer 61% investments Funded Status 58.9% 60.6% Annual Benefits Paid 3 $3.1 billion $6.1 billion 4/11/2016 4 SERS and Hits: 4
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf to 2017. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. PA Domestic Migration Statistics 2016 November 19, 2018 5 Age Group Net Migration State Net Migration 0 to 19 23,796 New York 17,539 20 to 24 -16,632 New Jersey 16,304 Medicaid expansion) 122 Less Tobacco Settlement Fund Support for DHS (revenue bond) 89 Motor License Fund Shift to General Fund (State Police) 44 Total 1,616 Note: millions of dollars. Points of Emphasis Various long-term demographic concerns.  Declining birth Hits: 4
NGPR-2015-2H.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the 2016 - Natural Gas Production Report Tables 4A and 4B show that Susquehanna County was the top producing county in the state, representing nearly one-quarter of all horizontal well production. Each of the top ten producing counties registered increases in the Hits: 4
NGIFE-2016.pdf imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the expected to offset reduced collections from older wells as their fees decline. Estimated net impact: -$9.6 million.  Exempt status and other. Includes the net effect of: (1) reduced collections from newly-exempt wells as their production falls below the Hits: 4
Newsstand_March_2020.pdf March 2020 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Outlook for Regional Manufacturing Unclear The New York Federal Reserve released its March 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Responses gath- ered between March 2 and 10 reveal New York manufacturing executives' waning confidence in general busi- Hits: 4
NewsStand_2019_October.pdf October 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Growing Number of Older Americans Burdened by Housing Costs A report and emerging (marijuana, e-cigarettes and sugar-sweetened beverages) sin taxes. In 2017, Pennsylvania sin taxes comprised 11.4% of state revenues; ranking 2nd in reliance when compared across the United States. From 2008 to 2017, the Commonwealth saw an increase Hits: 4
NewsStand_2019_June.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Existing Home Prices Increase by 5.0% in 2019 Q1 On May 28, the Federal Housing first quarter non-seasonally adjusted purchase-only index increased by 5.0% on a year-over- year basis. Nearly all states bordering Pennsylvania saw smaller increases in existing home prices: New York (4.7%), New Jersey (3.1%), Delaware (0.8% Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_October.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Early Data Show PA Economy Had Robust Growth in 2018 Q3 Four real-time data sources in the third quarter. Official government statistics will not be released for the third quar- ter until December 20, 2018 (state personal income) and January 29, 2019 (state gross domestic product). PA Social Security Payments to Increase by $1.3 Billion Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_November.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Student Loan Debt Continues to Climb in 2018 Q3 On November 16, the Federal Reserve Real Gross Domestic Product Surges in 2018 Q2 On November 15, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary state real Gross Domestic Product data for 2018 Q2. On a quarterly annualized basis, the Pennsylvania economy expanded by 3.6% Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_June.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News New Data Show Strong PA Labor Market On May 23, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released state and county employment data for the fourth quarter of 2017. These administrative data provide the final benchmark upon which all Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Ranks 19 th in Real GDP Growth for 2018 Q1 On July 24, the U of Economic Analysis released Personal Income data for 2018 Q1. The data show that Pennsylvania ranked 12 th across all states for year-over-year growth in Personal Income, with a growth rate of 3.7%. Pennsylvania underperformed New York (4 Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf Pennsylvania News Nationwide News (717) 230-8293 | Rachel Carson State Office Building Harrisburg, PA | www.ifo.state.pa.us Could Shale Gas Lead To a Manufacturing Boom in Appalachia? A recent article from Forbes magazine discusses the Hits: 4
MTR-2019-09.pdf 24.4 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Unemployment Rate 1 98.2 98.4 89.8 93.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 4
MTR-2019-08.pdf in June 2019. Cigarette 102.6 101.7 0.9 153.3 159.2 -5.9 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Unemployment Rate 1 100.0 98.2 98.4 89.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 4
MTR-2019-07.pdf amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate that will be published in August 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Unemployment Rate 1 97.2 100.0 98.2 98.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 4
MTR-2019-06.pdf TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | June 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/ Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through June June 85 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2019-05.pdf TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | May 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/ Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through May May 97 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2019-04.pdf TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | April 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/ Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through April April 95 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2019-03.pdf TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | March 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through March March 36 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2019-02.pdf TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | February 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through February February 61 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2019-01.pdf TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | January 2019 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through January January 49 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2018-12.pdf TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | December 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through December December 42 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2018-11.pdf TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | November 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through November November 4) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2018-10.pdf TRENDS REPORT Independent Fiscal Office | October 2018 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through October October 35) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2018-09.pdf MONTHLY TRENDS September 2018 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through September September 12) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2018-07.pdf MONTHLY TRENDS July 2018 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf. FY 2018-19 Revenue Performance Through July July 23) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published on July 30, 2018. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2018-06.pdf baseline estimates did not change from June 2017. See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ download.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18_Update.pdf. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through June June Collections FYTD 256) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2018-05.pdf baseline estimates did not change from June 2017. See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ download.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18_Update.pdf. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through May May Collections FYTD 129) Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2018-04.pdf baseline estimates did not change from June 2017. See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ download.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18_Update.pdf. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through April April Collections FYTD 65 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2018-03.pdf baseline estimates did not change from June 2017. See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ download.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18_Update.pdf. FY 2017-18 Revenue Performance Through March March Collections FYTD 320 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official revised estimate published in December 2017. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2017-09.pdf MONTHLY TRENDS SEPTEMBER 2017 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 See Official Monthly & Quarterly Revenue Estimates for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ Resources/Documents/MQRE_FY17-18.pdf. FY 2017-18 Q1 Rˎ˟ˎ˗˞ˎ Pˎ˛ˏ˘˛˖ˊ˗ˌˎ Diff. w/ IFO Estimate Tax 62 46 16 34.5% 3 4.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. Actual Estimate MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2017-06.pdf S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, publishes quarterly data on employment and wages by sector, as reported by employers. In June, state data were released for the fourth quarter of 2016. For calendar year 2016, the data show that the number of The QCEW data are used to benchmark the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) series discussed by various media outlets. United States Pennsylvania Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2017-02.pdf 0% 19.0% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA ELECTRICITY SOURCES CHANGING The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes state and national data on the composition of energy sources that are used to generate electricity for the residential, commercial and S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ report/electricity.cfm Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. United States Pennsylvania Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 4
MTR-2016-04.pdf sales completed by homeowners), but they do capture the majority of home sales and provide useful information regarding the current state of the housing market. The PAR data reveal very strong growth in home sales for 2013 (12.5%), followed by transaction price of all home and business sales. This realty transfer tax also provides a real-time measure of the state of the housing market, though there is typically a lag of one or two months’ time between buyer engagement, the Hits: 4
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf Public Pension Funding Outlook Negative; Philadelphia Plan One of Most At-Risk The Center for State & Local Government Excellence published an article detailing public pension market returns for fiscal year (FY) 2020 and potential impacts going 419 billion, but the April market rebound helped recover $200 billion of those losses. 2020 Q1 investment data for the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) are slated to be released at the end of Hits: 4
MER-2015-04.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 4
MER-2014-12.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 4
MER-2014-09.pdf Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania United States Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Number of individuals unemployed divided by the labor force. 1 Monthly Net Job Gains (000s) Average realty transfer taxes based on lat‐ est three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at the state level. 3 Housing Starts (Building Permits) Year‐over‐year growth rate (single units only) of privately owned homes upon which Hits: 4
DOC_Performance_Measures_Final.pdf o r r e c t i o n s Independent Fiscal Office INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 February 23, 2017 Dear Chairmen and Members of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees: In September 2016, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a report entitled “Using Performance Measures in the State Budget.” In that report, the office described the systems and processes that certain states use to implement performance-based budgeting Hits: 4
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Annual Economic Trends January 28, 2020 2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Real GDP 2.9% 1.6% 2.4% 2.9% 2.3% Wages-Salaries 5.1% 2.9% 4.7% IFO. Recent Quarterly Economic Trends January 28, 2020 3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 United States Real GDP 3.5% 2.9% 1.1% 3.1% 2.0% Wages-Salaries 5.3% 5.2% 4.0% Hits: 4
2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf Date IFO Analysis FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 Total AFSCME American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 8/12/2019 $71.3 $159.4 $254.9 $341 2019 6/30/2023 2/26/2020 1.1 2.3 4.3 5.5 13.3 FOSCEP Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 10/8/2019 1.1 2.3 3.6 4 Hits: 4
WC-2019-UFCW.pdf Salaries & Benefits for the relevant fiscal year multiplied by the 3 percent general pay increase (GPI). Motor Other General License State Federal All Fund Fund Funds 1/ Funds Funds FY 2019-20 General Pay and Step Increase $0.0 $0.0 0 12.7 0.0 12.7 TOTAL 0.0 0.0 30.7 0.0 30.7 1/ Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, and restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement United Food & Commercial Hits: 3
WC-2019-SEIU.pdf Salaries & Benefits for the relevant fiscal year multiplied by the 3 percent general pay increase (GPI). Motor Other General License State Federal All Fund Fund Funds 1/ Funds Funds FY 2019-20 General Pay and Step Increase $10.1 $0.0 0 8.0 63.9 119.0 TOTAL 114.9 0.0 19.6 155.6 290.1 1/ Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, and restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement SEIU Local 668 Hits: 3
WC-2019-AFSCME.pdf Salaries & Benefits for the relevant fiscal year multiplied by the 3 percent general pay increase (GPI). Motor Other General License State Federal All Fund Fund Funds 1/ Funds Funds FY 2019-20 General Pay and Step Increase $23.3 $20.7 7 76.9 53.9 341.7 TOTAL 269.3 241.3 186.4 130.2 827.3 1/ Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, and restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement AFSCME Council 13 Hits: 3
Wage_Contracts_PLEA.pdf Union Year Increase General Fund Motor License Fund Other State Funds 1/ Federal Funds Total PLEA 2016-17 General Pay or Step - - 0.2 - 0.2 Bargaining Healthcare Contribution - - - - - Unit 9 Healthcare Contribution - - 0.1 - 0.1 Total - - 0.9 - 0.9 Grand Total - - 1.6 - 1.6 1/ Other State Funds include Lottery, State Stores, and restricted accounts, augmentations and other funds. Note: Detail may not sum to total due Hits: 3
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf 2 If recipients spend 60 percent of the tax cut extension (and the spending does not “leak” outside of the state, although non-resident purchases could also flow into the state), then purchases would increase by $2.5 billion. Personal Consumption Expenditure data from the National Income and Product Accounts suggest Hits: 3
RTR-2015-04.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.0 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $588 million (17 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2015-03.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.3 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $56 million (1 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2015-02.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.74 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $94 million (5 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2015-01.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.4 billion in General Fund revenues in January, an increase of $37 million (1 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-12.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.7 billion in General Fund revenues in December, an increase of $319 million (13 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-11.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.7 billion in General Fund revenues in November, an increase of $34 million (2 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-10.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues in October, an increase of $156 million (7 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-09.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.6 billion in General Fund revenues in September, an increase of $149 million (6 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-08.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For the second month of fiscal year 2014-15, the Commonwealth collected $1.8 billion in General Fund year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-06.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.82 billion in General Fund revenues for June, an increase of $134 million (5 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-05.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.86 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $167 million (-8 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-04.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $3.42 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $173 million (-4 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends (compared to the same period in the prior year) ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-03.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.22 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $65 million (1 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-02.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.65 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $19 million (1 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2014-01.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.36 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $25 million (1 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2013-12.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.39 billion in General Fund revenues for December, a decrease of $50 million (-2 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2013-11.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.70 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $20 million (1 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
RTR-2013-10.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.09 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $47 million (2 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf estimate reflects the recent underperformance of wage and salary withholding payments,” Knittel noted. “Wages are the largest component of the state economy, and the recent weakness in collections motivated a revision to the economic outlook for 2016 and 2017.” A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf Social Assistance 22.4 26.4 27.2 27.1 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 9.1 4.9 7.8 State-Federal Government 1.1 -0.2 -1.3 1.0 Local Government -2.3 0.5 1.0 -0.7 43.5% static pre-TCJA conf Note: Growth rates compare collections for March and April 2019 to 2018. Sources: Various state agency websites. Conformity status from Tax Foundation. Corporate Income and Sales Drive Large Gains May 20, 2019 11 Annual Dollar Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.43 billion in General Fund revenues in September, an increase of 4.6% compared the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Aggregate Periods Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.04 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of 12.9% compared year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Aggregate Periods Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.68 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of 2.3% compared year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Periods Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.03 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of 7.1% from year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $4.15 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of 2.2% from year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.69 billion in General Fund revenues for June, a decline of 3.5% from year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us For July, the first month of fiscal year 2013-14, the Commonwealth collected $1.92 billion in General year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.84 billion in General Fund revenues in July, an increase of 7.2% over the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Aggregate Periods Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐15.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of 7.6% compared year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.63 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decline of 4.3% from year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $2.44 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of 7.5% compared year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Periods Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.76 billion in General Fund revenues in August, a decrease of $36 million (-2 year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $1.8 billion in General Fund revenues in August, a decline of 0.6% compared the prior year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Aggregate Periods Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  Commonwealth of Pennsylvania  www.ifo.state.pa.us The Commonwealth collected $3.59 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of 4.9% from year Monthly Revenues Fiscal Year to Date Growth Rate Trends Rolling Averages Independent Fiscal Office • Commonwealth of Pennsylvania • www.ifo.state.pa.us Three and Twelve-Month Revenue Growth Trends compared to the same period in the prior year ‐10.0% Hits: 3
REU-2020-02.pdf Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to the IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Unemployment Rate 1 96.8 99.3 99.8 101.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 3
REU-2020-01.pdf in June 2019. Cigarette 64.6 58.0 6.6 618.7 616.5 2.2 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Unemployment Rate 1 95.5 96.8 99.3 99.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 3
REU-2019-11.pdf 9 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Unemployment Rate 1 89.8 93.2 95.5 96.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 3
REU-2019-10.pdf in June 2019. Cigarette 98.4 92.9 5.5 353.4 356.5 -3.1 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sept-19 Oct-19 Unemployment Rate 1 98.4 89.8 93.2 95.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 3
Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE October 7, 2019 The Honorable Jim Cox Hits: 3
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 19, 2019 The Honorable Doug Mastriano Hits: 3
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 www.ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE September 12, 2019 The Honorable Robert M Hits: 3
RB-2019-01.pdf imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the are assumed to be collected as a result of the recent decision by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court regarding stripper well status and (2) the collection of other outstanding payments from the previous year. 3 Net impact: +$22.3 million. The impact Hits: 3
QRR_2017Q2.pdf detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s Quarterly Revenue Estimates on the same 7 -259.4 Instant Games 674.8 766.7 -91.9 2,726.6 2,956.7 -230.1 Multi-state Games 84.7 116.5 -31.8 369.5 463.7 -94.2 All Others 255.6 209.1 46 Hits: 3
QRR_2017Q1.pdf detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s Quarterly Revenue Estimates on the same 4 -182.2 Instant Games 691.3 749.6 -58.3 2,051.8 2,190.0 -138.2 Multi‐state Games 90.6 116.5 -25.9 284.8 347.2 -62.4 All Others 219.9 202.3 17 Hits: 3
QRR_2016Q4.pdf detail on revenue growth rates by month and fiscal year, see the IFO’s Monthly Trends Reports at www.ifo.state.pa.us. For more detail on the quarterly revenue estimates, see the IFO’s Quarterly Revenue Estimates on the same 0 -115.6 Instant Games 701.0 760.1 -59.1 1,360.6 1,440.4 -79.8 Multi-State Games 79.4 116.3 -36.9 194.2 230.7 -36.5 All Others 219.0 216.0 3 Hits: 3
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018-19 to 2023-24, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition one-time funding sources used to balance the FY 2018-19 budget, as well as FY 2019-20 increases in state costs associated with health and human service programs,” Knittel said. The following factors affect projections of the Commonwealth’s fiscal Hits: 3
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real State GDP 1.1% 0.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% Philadelphia CPI-U 2.7% 1.8% 9 1.6 2.0 1.9 10 West Virginia 2.2 -3.4 1.5 5.3 1 United States 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.3 n.a. 22.Jun.2015 3 Real Per Capita GDP Growth Source Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf IFO-contracted actuary helped shape the request and interpret the data, which was supplied by actuaries for the two major state pension systems.  The IFO performed additional analysis using the data and projections supplied by the actuaries. A broader analysis be used? 7/29/2018 8 Institutionalized Stress Testing? Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us 7/29/2018 9 Contact Information Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2018-07- Hits: 3
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf power. June.12.2018 2 Optimistic Revenue Outlook Wage income - statewide growth is strong.  Withholding growth +4.4% since start of FY 17-18.  Rough split: +1.1% job gains | +3.3% average wage. Non-wage income - solid gains Social Assist 11.1 22.6 26.9 27.0 Leisure-Hospitality 7.9 12.4 8.6 8.0 State-Federal Gov’t 0.2 1.0 -0.6 -1.0 Local Gov’t -6.7 -2.2 0.6 Hits: 3
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf Social Assistance 22.4 26.4 27.2 27.1 Leisure-Hospitality 12.4 9.1 4.9 7.8 State-Federal Government 1.1 -0.2 -1.3 1.0 Local Government -2.3 0.5 1.0 -0.7 43.5% static pre-TCJA conf Note: Growth rates compare collections for March and April 2019 to 2018. Sources: Various state agency websites. Conformity status from Tax Foundation. Corporate Income and Sales Drive Large Gains June 11, 2019 10 Annual Dollar Hits: 3
PBB-Tax-Credits-Schedule-2019-05.pdf Banking and Securities General Services 2 Community & Economic Development Human Services – Part 1 Health Environmental Protection PA Emergency Management Agency State 3 PennDOT Human Services – Part 2 State Police Military & Veterans Affairs State Civil Service Commission 4 Education Human Services – Part 3 Aging PA Historical & Museum Commission Agriculture Hits: 3
Newsstand_2019_March.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Real Gross Domestic Product Expanded by 2.8% in 2018 Q3 On February 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q3. The data show that Pennsylvania real GDP expanded at a 2.8% rate for 2018 Hits: 3
Newsstand_2018_December.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Impact Fee to Use Higher Fee Schedule for CY 2018 Final futures data for CY since earlier in the year (Q1: 6.1%, Q2: 3.1%). Third quarter annualized growth was also slower than surrounding states: Ohio (6.9%), West Virginia (6.7%), New York (4.7%), New Jersey (3.7%), Delaware (3.0%) and Maryland Hits: 3
MTR-2017-01.pdf homes on the market at the end of each quarter in a given year. Source: Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. United States Pennsylvania Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Unemployment Rate 1 8.9% 7.5% 8.6% n.a. 12.3% 18.8% 20.7% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 3
MTR-2016-11.pdf per quarter. New well data are totals per quarter. Production data are totals per quarter in billion cubic feet. United States Pennsylvania Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Unemployment Rate 1 5.5% 5.4% 8.9% n.a. 3.5% -2.4% 12.3% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 3
MTR-2016-09.pdf Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 2015 2016 U.S. Milk PA Milk United States Pennsylvania Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug- 16 Sep-16 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 4.4% 5.5% n.a. 25.6% 8.7% 3.5% n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2015.3 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 3
MTR-2016-01.pdf partnerships as well as owners of S corporations. January 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State Area Employment Data- base. Data exclude military personnel and agricultural workers. 2015 Level Change Since 2007 Number Share Number Percent 100.0% 43.0 0.7% Note: data are in thousands. ChaɈge iɈ PeɈɈɍɓɆɐaɈia PaɓɌɉɆɆ EɇɊɆɉɓɇeɈɎ, 2007 Ɏɉ 2015 United States Pennsylvania Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 3
MTR-2015-10.pdf have received an average COLA for 2016, an additional $800 million of personal income would have been added to the state economy. The recent decline in consumer prices is primarily the result of depressed energy costs. Although energy purchases comprise only ɍ CPI-W ‐20 ‐15 ‐10 ‐5 0 5 10 15 20 Energy All items All items less energy United States Pennsylvania Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 3
MTR-2015-07.pdf 65+ 10.5 13.0 16.7 16.9 All Groups 64.4 64.5 64.3 62.4 United States 16-19 52.0 43.9 37.5 34.0 20-24 77.6 75.0 72.9 70.8 4.9%) compared to July 2014. See pages 3 and 4 for additional General Fund detail. General Fund Snapshot United States Pennsylvania Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Unemployment Rate 1 Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf applications are 11.6% higher than 2019. New IRS Data Reveal Impact of TCJA on PA Taxpayers The IRS released state-level data for tax year 2018 that reveal the significant impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA a federal income tax return. Major provisions of the act include: lower tax rates, a $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, a near doubling of the standard deduction, elimination of personal exemptions and an expansion of Hits: 3
Letter_to_JSGC.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 March 13, 2017 Mr. Glenn Pasewicz Executive Director Joint State Government Commission 108 Finance Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Director Pasewicz: Act 7 of 2016 required the Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 3
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf entails full-time, professional work in fiscal analysis. An IFO analyst: 1) compiles, organizes, analyzes and forecasts data relating to state revenues, expenditures and the economy; 2) applies economic and statistical principles, practices and techniques to design and complete research on fiscal and economic issues; 3) prepares regular reports on the economy and state revenues; and 4) drafts text and prepares data tables and graphs for presentations and published analyses. Applicants will be assessed Hits: 3
IFO-RTK-Request-Form.pdf ___Fax Date Received: ______________ Response Due: ______________ To: Mathieu Taylor Open Records Officer Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email: righttoknow@ifo.state.pa.us Requester Information ______________________________________________________ _________________________ Name of Requester (please print) Date Requested _____________________________________________________________________________________ Organization (if applicable) _____________________________________________________________________________________ Street Address _____________________________________________________________________________________ City, State, Zip Code __________________________ __________________________ _________________________ Telephone (optional Hits: 3
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition percent per annum. “The growth rate differential represents the implied structural imbalance over the previous five fiscal years. Although annual state budgets were brought into balance using temporary one-time measures, the underlying structural imbalance remains and is carried forward into Hits: 3
Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report uses a cost-to-carry approach for current year expenditures due to the current budget impasse personal income and sales) due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase state expenditures associated with the long-term care of the elderly. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal Office to Hits: 3
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf tax burdens for the lowest income group (Chester, Montgomery and Delaware) border each other in the southeast region of the state. 1 All data in this brief are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 ACS 1-year PUMS that the property tax burden for homeowners of all income levels is generally highest in the southeast region of the state. Figure 2 illustrates the higher tax burden for homeowners in the median household income group. For households of all income Hits: 3
2020 PBB Agenda.pdf of Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) Plan David R. (Randy) Padfield, Executive Director, PEMA Bruce Trego, Commissioner, Office of the State Fire Commissioner (OSFC) Jeff Thomas, Executive Deputy Director, PEMA Jeff Boyle, Deputy Director for 9‐1‐1, PEMA Paula Wilcox Dennis Edwards, Director, Bureau of Budget, PEMA Christine Williams, OSFC 10:15 am – 11:00 am Review of Department of State Plan Kathy Boockvar, Secretary, Department of State Sari Stevens, Executive Deputy Secretary, DOS Jonathan Marks, Deputy Secretary for Elections and Hits: 3
2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015- 2020-21 Date and Time: Wednesday, December 9, 2015; 2:00 p.m. Location: 2 nd Floor Auditorium Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street, Harrisburg Agenda: A detailed discussion by IFO staff on the economic, demographic and fiscal trends Hits: 3
Releases on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020. Tags: estimates , monthly , revenue Full Report Economic and Budget Update Presentation February 19, 2021 | News Stand & Other Deputy Director Brenda Update The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic , monthly , news Full Report Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees February 12, 2021 | News Stand Hits: 3
SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Figure 4.2 CPI is the PA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Creator: Matthew Knittel Hits: 2
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf budget and economy while writing legislation. 2) Regular convening with members, federal agencies and support committees Where is the United States Headed? More Debt Penn Wharton Budget Model 3 Debt has a Snowball Effect on GDP Penn Wharton Budget Model 4 Effect 2018-2027 (billions of $) Revenue Effect 2018- 2040 (billions of $) Tax Provision JCT PWBM PWBM Corporate tax rate 21% starting 2019 -1,389 -1,435 -4,185 Net interest deduction capped at 30% of income 253 193 753 Changes to Hits: 2
Public_Data-Motor_License_Fund.xlsx IFTA Alternative Fuels Oil Company Franchise Act 89 OCFT- Fuels Act 89 OCFT- Liquid Fuels | Special Hauling Permits Reg. Other States-IRP Operators Licenses Real ID Vehicle Reg. & Titling Misc. Collections | Gross Receipts Aeronautics Fines Vehicle Code Fines Misc.-Treasury Misc IFTA Alternative Fuels Oil Company Franchise Act 89 OCFT- Fuels Act 89 OCFT- Liquid Fuels | Special Hauling Permits Reg. Other States-IRP Operators Licenses Real ID Vehicle Reg. & Titling Misc. Collections | Gross Receipts Aeronautics Fines Vehicle Code Fines Misc.-Treasury Misc Hits: 2
Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf Independent Fiscal Office  www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014- Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-8293 or contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Author: MJR Creator: Microsoft® Word 2013 CreationDate: 2014-10-23 13:53:12 ModDate: 2014-10-23 13 Hits: 2
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition associated with the long-term care of the elderly. The Independent Fiscal Office provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at Hits: 2
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, will be available on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can use to assess the fiscal sustainability of expenditures,” said Knittel. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf Social Assist 11.1 22.6 26.9 27.0 Leisure-Hospitality 7.9 12.4 8.6 8.0 State-Federal Gov’t 0.2 1.0 -0.6 -1.0 Local Gov’t -6.7 -2.2 0.6 revenues from PA Public Utility Commission. Forecasts by IFO. Wage income - statewide growth strong.  Withholding growth +4.4% since start of FY 17-18.  Rough split: +1.1% job gains | +3.3% average wage. Non-wage income - solid gains Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf Social Assist 11.1 22.6 26.9 27.0 Leisure-Hospitality 7.9 12.4 8.6 8.0 State-Federal Gov’t 0.2 1.0 -0.6 -1.0 Local Gov’t -6.7 -2.2 0.6 Utility Commission. Forecasts by IFO. June.05.2018 6 Wage income - statewide growth strong.  Withholding growth +4.4% since start of FY 17-18.  Rough split: +1.1% job gains | +3.3% average wage. Non-wage income - solid gains Hits: 2
Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-10-22 17:56:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU,BACEQ8zYs40 ModDate: 2020-10-23 18:42 Hits: 2
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-10-22 17:56:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU,BACEQ8zYs40 ModDate: 2020-10-23 18:14 Hits: 2
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-10-22 17:56:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU,BACEQ8zYs40 ModDate: 2020-10-23 18:42 Hits: 2
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-10-22 17:56:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU,BACEQ8zYs40 ModDate: 2020-10-23 18:14 Hits: 2
NGPR-2015-1H.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the substantial lag before a well produces output. Table 4 shows that Susquehanna County remains the top producing county in the state. While Bradford County recorded lower output than the prior year, Washington and Greene Counties recorded signifi- cant gains. All of Hits: 2
NGPR-2015-09.pdf The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) publishes monthly production data submitted by natural gas extractors that operate in the state. This report uses those data to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts for the substantial lag before a well produces output. Table 4 shows that Susquehanna County remains the top producing county in the state. While Bradford County recorded lower output than the prior year, Washington and Greene Counties recorded signifi- cant gains. All of Hits: 2
NGIFE-2018.pdf imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments and state agencies to provide for infrastructure, emergency services, environmental initiatives and various other programs. Local governments receive funds based on the spud, including both horizontal and vertical wells. 2 Includes wells exempt from the fee based on production level or plugged status. These wells have not been adjusted to re- flect a recent case affecting exemption qualifications. The case is currently pending Hits: 2
NGIFE-2015.pdf year. To date, the impact fee has generated approximately $856 million in revenues, which were distributed to local governments and state agencies to offset the impact from unconventional natural gas extraction. The proceeds are used to provide for infrastructure, emergency services of a single new well; this measure is best used to quantify the prospective tax burden on new wells across states. (See the IFO’s previous publication, Effective Tax Rate Comparisons ‐ Severance Taxes, for a further description of the lifetime ETR Hits: 2
NewsStand_2019_August.pdf August 2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Women Drive 80% of Job Growth in Health Care since 2000 producer of natural gas, produced more gas in the second quarter (April to June) than in any quarter in the state’s history. For August, the average price of gas on the New York Mercantile Ex- change (NYMEX), upon which the Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_August.pdf (717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Retail Sales Strong in PA and U.S. On August 15, the U.S. Commerce Department the chance of recession in the next 12 months at 18.3%. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-08-20 15:21:32 ModDate: 2018-08-20 15:21:32 Hits: 2
MTR-2016-02.pdf in millions. Source: PA Department of Revenue, Statistical Supplement to the Tax Compendium. PA CɉɌɊɉɌaɎe NeɎ IɈcɉɇe Taɒ PaɓɇeɈɎɍ United States Pennsylvania Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Unemployment Rate 1 10.5% 10.7% 11.5% n.a. -10.1% -12.4% -3.1% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 2015.1 2015.2 2015.3 2015.4 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 2
MTR-2015-08.pdf 0.9%) from the prior year. See pages 3 and 4 for additional General Fund detail. General Fund Snapshot United States Pennsylvania May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Unemployment Rate 1 9.4% 10.5% 9.3% n.a -24.1% -15.3% -11.0% n.a. Quarterly Economic Indicators United States Pennsylvania 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 2014.3 2014.4 2015.1 2015.2 Gross Domestic Product Hits: 2
MRU-2020-12.pdf collections by 44.5 percent ($234.4 million). A material portion of the gain is likely related to the taxable status of forgiven Paycheck Protection Program loans, and recent federal legislation makes those loans non-taxable. FYTD CNIT collections continue to 657.4 564.2 Total Non-Tax Revenue 375.6 24.2 665.3 261.5 n.a. 154.4 State Store Fund Transfers 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 370.1 Hits: 2
MRU-2020-10.pdf home refinancings that likely lowered household monthly payments/increased cash flow and (3) a shift in spending from out-of-state travel, gasoline, etc., to home furnishings, electronics and other taxable household goods. SUT growth is expected to slow in the 12.0 752.5 Total Non-Tax Revenue 32.3 29.4 86.7 123.8 10.0 -30.0 State Store Fund Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 25.6 Hits: 2
MRU-2020-05.pdf related to COVID-19. MV collections began to improve toward the end of the month, as dealerships in designated counties started to reopen. FYTD SUT collections are $670.9 million (-6.4 percent) below estimate, with $135 million of the shortfall 47.3 -37.5 Total Non-Tax Revenue 51.9 33.9 629.5 802.6 53.3 -21.6 State Store Fund Transfers 0.0 0.0 185.1 185.1 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 45.9 Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf six months (renewable), while many auto loan businesses offered optional forbearance. The New York Federal Reserve Bank reported on the status of borrowers in forbearance for a mortgage or auto loan. More individuals opted into auto loan forbearance (about 8 million level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf Declines to 13.0 Percent in June On July 17, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June state employment/unemployment report. The percent of Pennsylvania’s labor force that is unemployed (seasonally adjusted) fell to 13.0% from level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf 60 tax per pack of cigarettes as well as a separate tax on other tobacco products, including e-cigarettes. Historically, state cigarette tax collections fall 3% to 6% each year due to declining consumption. After adjusting for payment delays due to level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll Hits: 2
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf 2.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data for 2017 are preliminary. real GDP growth Future Challenges for State Budget Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Ratio: Working Age / Age 65+ 3.9 2.4 Share PA Population Age 65+ 15.4% 17.0% 19.0% 21.4% 23.0% Approximate Share of State Taxes Paid by Age 65+ Personal Income 15% to 18% Sales and Use 20% to 24% Property (homeowners) 29% to Hits: 2
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf 2012 5 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Mission Statement The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues to assist Commonwealth residents and the June 12 th )  Uses Global Insight economic forecast May 2012.  Assumes modest recovery for PA.  Real Gross State Product 1.5% (2012) and 2.3% (2013)  Unemployment Rate 7.4% (2012) and 7.1% (2013)  Home Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition associated with the long-term care of the elderly. The Independent Fiscal Office provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report finds that policymakers will face a shortfall of $1.85 billion in FY 2015-16. This the service population. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Hits: 2
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf assess the sustainability of current tax and spending policies. It is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report finds that the Commonwealth faces a long-term structural deficit,” Knittel said. “Furthermore, policymakers will enter as Medical Assistance. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Hits: 2
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf 2% Per Capita Consumer Debt 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 0.3% Note: % Renters Deferring/Not Paying reflects payment status from prior month. Value for 2020.1 is first survey for week that begins April 23 (week 1). Value for are not seasonally adjusted. June data are preliminary. Does not include self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment data. Miscellaneous Economic Notes What impact from expiration of federal programs?  March 15 to end of Hits: 2
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2021-01-11 12:37:29 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAEHx08e5bU,BACEQ8zYs40 ModDate: 2021-01-11 14:10 Hits: 2
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf 31,766 3.3% 5.4% Note: millions of dollars. PSERS is Public School Employees’ Retirement System and SERS is State Employees’ Retirement System. Source: IFO Five-Year Outlook Reports and Executive Budgets. Pensions – Employer Rates February 28, 2017 14 20% tax credits and tax expenditures. February 28, 2017 15 February 28, 2017 16 Thank you. Presentation available at www.ifo.state.pa.us Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-03-01 19:38:57 Creator: Acrobat PDFMaker 15 for PowerPoint ModDate: 2017-03- Hits: 2
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf Act of 2015. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial and timely analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. The statute requires the office to make an annual assessment of the state’s fiscal condition for the current year and the next five fiscal years. For more information, please contact Matthew Knittel Hits: 2
ACN_SB1_technical_corrections_2017_06_05.pdf INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE Second Floor, Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 June 5, 2017 The IFO made the following technical changes to the average salary limitation on voluntary overtime pay applies only to new hazardous duty employees. • On page 7, clarified the amortization starting dates for changes to the unfunded accrued liability of SERS that result from enactment of the bill. Author: MJR Company Hits: 2
Right-to-Know should be sent to the IFO Open Records Officer: Open Records Officer: Mathieu Taylor Office Address: 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building, Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email Address: righttoknow@ifo.state.pa.us You should receive a reply to your written request within five business days, pursuant to Section 901 of Hits: 2
Pensions the borough retirement system as borough employees for the purpose of determining the annual allocation of General Municipal Pension System State Aid according to the distribution formula set forth in the Municipal Pension Plan Funding Standard and Recovery Act (Act 205 extended amortization period; and 4) preclude the revised actuarial valuation report from affecting the distribution of General Municipal Pension System State Aid under Chapter 4 of the Act. The Act also amended Act 205 to permit a municipality to amortize the Hits: 2
Contact US IFO - Contact US IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Contact US Address Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Full Name Email Message Submit IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Feb 25) Director Matt Knittel made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent computation of the Act 1 Index. Link:… • (Feb 23) The IFO released revised monthly revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Ye… • (Feb 19) Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship P… Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale Hits: 2
SR2017-05.pdf Tax Reduction Allocations. Philadelphia data adjusted based on information from the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Education, State Tax Equalization Board, the Philadelphia Department of Revenue and county assessment offices. Computations by the IFO. Note: dollar amounts in Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf casino liquor licenses and various other provisions. The estimate incorporates tax revenue increases of $21 million, additional transfers from the State Stores Fund to the General Fund of $70 million and other non-tax collections of $15 million. Author: mryan CreationDate Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make Hits: 1
QRR_2016Q1.pdf Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q4.pdf Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publication detailing the quarterly revenue estimates is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q3.pdf Fund and Lottery Fund. The most recent publications detailing the annual and quarterly revenue estimates are available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q2.pdf taken from Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published by the IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2014-15 revenue estimate certified Hits: 1
QRR_2015Q1.pdf taken from Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published by the IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2014-15 revenue estimate certified Hits: 1
QRR_2014Q4.pdf taken from Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published by the IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2014-15 revenue estimate certified Hits: 1
QRR_2014Q2.pdf taken from Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published by the IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2013-14 revenue estimate certified Hits: 1
QRR_2013Q4.pdf taken from Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published by the IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2013-14 revenue estimate certified Hits: 1
QRR_2013Q3.pdf taken from Fiscal Year 2013-14 Quarterly Revenue Estimates published by the IFO. That document is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The scope of this report does not include any analysis of the FY 2013-14 revenue estimate certified Hits: 1
QRE_FY15-16.xlsx 1 304.0 998.0 Vehicle Registrations & Titling 194.3 152.1 183.5 246.0 775.9 Registrations Other States - IRP 21.4 23.0 36.2 31.3 111.9 Operators Licenses 20.6 14.0 15.9 15 Hits: 1
QRE_FY15-16.pdf 1 304.0 998.0 Vehicle Registrations & Titling 194.3 152.1 183.5 246.0 775.9 Registrations Other States - IRP 21.4 23.0 36.2 31.3 111.9 Operators Licenses 20.6 14.0 15.9 15 Hits: 1
PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf actuarial savings over 30 years. 6/28/2017 9 Thank you Presentation to be posted at IFO website. www.ifo.state.pa.us 6/28/2017 10 Author: Mark Ryan Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-06-27 14:03:02 Creator: Acrobat Hits: 1
PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdf Lepore, Deputy Secretary, DCED Andrea Lowery, Executive Director, PHMC Howard Pollman, Director of External Affairs, PHMC Andrea MacDonald, Director of State Historical Preservation Office, PHMC 11:30am - 12:30pm Review of Department of Banking and Securities Plan Brian LaForme, Executive Deputy Hits: 1
PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdf Lepore, Deputy Secretary, DCED Andrea Lowery, Executive Director, PHMC Howard Pollman, Director of External Affairs, PHMC Andrea MacDonald, Director of State Historical Preservation Office, PHMC 12:00pm Adjournment Company: Senate of Pennsylvania CreationDate: 2019-01-15 17:35:44 Creator: Acrobat Hits: 1
novak ppt.pdf stabilizers kick-in • The recession was too long for the economy, much longer for the unemployed. • Government job loses at state and local level have been rising Some Final Thoughts • Economist and forecasting agencies often differ in their outlook, use more Hits: 1
MRU_2021_01.pdf 61.3 328.1 Total Non-Tax Revenue 26.3 17.9 691.6 279.4 46.8 147.5 State Store Fund Transfers 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 21.6 Hits: 1
MRU_2020_11.pdf 4.8 245.7 Total Non-Tax Revenue 203.0 113.4 289.7 237.3 79.0 22.1 State Store Fund Transfers 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 94.4 Hits: 1
MRU-2020-09.pdf 197.5 265.8 Total Non-Tax Revenue 19.6 42.6 54.4 94.4 -53.9 -42.4 State Store Fund Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 12.4 Hits: 1
MRU-2020-08.pdf 214.8 99.2 Total Non-Tax Revenue 20.6 17.9 34.8 51.9 15.4 -32.9 State Store Fund Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 14.9 Hits: 1
MRU-2020-07.pdf 147.5 147.5 Total Non-Tax Revenue 14.1 34.0 14.1 34.0 -58.4 -58.4 State Store Fund Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 9.8 Hits: 1
MRU-2020-06.pdf 110.9 -92.6 Total Non-Tax Revenue 35.5 (1.0) 664.9 801.6 n.a. -17.0 State Store Fund Transfers 0.0 0.0 185.1 185.1 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 42.6 Hits: 1
MRU-2020-04.pdf n.a. -41.5 Total Non-Tax Revenue 175.9 240.4 577.6 768.7 -26.8 -24.9 State Store Fund Transfers 0.0 0.0 185.1 185.1 0.0 0.0 Lic., Fees & Misc. 164.6 Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf level for U.S. and PA-NJ-DE-MD. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Economic Indicators United States Economic Indicators 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Survey of Households. 2. Year-over-year increase in payroll Hits: 1
mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf A presentation discussing the IFO’s economic forecast and the revisions to the revenue estimate is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-01-25 21:08:58 Creator Hits: 1
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf The IFO’s presentation discussing the economic forecast and the revisions to the revenue estimate is available at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-01-28 16:56:57 Creator: PScript5.dll Hits: 1
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf FY 2015‐16 Revenue Outlook 28.Jan.2015 27 Questions/Discussion Presentation to be Posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-02-02 18:43:37 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2015- Hits: 1
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdf Please register at the link above to receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. www.ifo.state.pa.us Updated Revenue Estimates CreationDate: 2020-05-18 18:55:41 Creator: Canva Keywords: "DAD7-QycXRw,BACEQ8zYs40" ModDate: 2020- Hits: 1
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf revenue estimate, which includes a discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ind_fisc_office. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 Hits: 1
Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf discussing the revenue projections and Pennsylvania’s economic outlook will be available on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document will describe the methods and data used to make the projections. Author: mryan CreationDate: 2016- Hits: 1
2019-Pub-2.pdf Growth Matt Gardner, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy: Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2019-11-05 14:52:52 Creator: Canva Keywords: DADm-scWNSg,BACEQ8zYs40 ModDate: 2019-11-06 13 Hits: 1
Pensions and cash flow issues facing the Commonwealth. Among the items to be examined is how insolvency proceedings would affect the state in making its pension obligation ... read more IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Feb 25) Director Matt Knittel made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent computation of the Act 1 Index. Link:… • (Feb 23) The IFO released revised monthly revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Ye… • (Feb 19) Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship P… Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport: width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0 msapplication- Hits: 1
Pensions IFO - Pensions IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Pensions Legislation Enacted Municipal Pension Legislation Enacted Since 2001 School and State Pension Legislation Enacted Since 2001 PA Public Employee Pension Statutes Public Employee Retirement Laws For Pennsylvania Local Governments (2009) IFO Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office Email Subscription Get alerts on new studies and reports. Sign Up Latest Tweets • (Feb 25) Director Matt Knittel made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent computation of the Act 1 Index. Link:… • (Feb 23) The IFO released revised monthly revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Ye… • (Feb 19) Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship P… Contact Info (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Follow on Twitter Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 viewport Hits: 1
Pensions City - Nonuniformed City - Police Miscellaneous Penna. Municipal Retirement System Philadelphia City Pittsburgh City Public School Employes' Retirement System Scranton City State Employees' Retirement System (Hold Ctrl to select multiple items) Legislative Subject Actuarial Reporting Administrative Expenses Administrative Operations Alternative Retirement Plans Hits: 1