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Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax

Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. 

This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.

 

Tags: federal, income, taxes, tcja

Property Tax by County and Income

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey to provide Pennsylvania property tax data for 2018 by county, household income and homeowner age.

Tags: property, tax

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

Tags: comparison, local, state, tax

Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

10/15/2020

Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion.  This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.  

10/13/2020

August 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

09/01/2020

July 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

08/03/2020

COVID-19 Impact on Local Revenues

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office examined how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year.

07/16/2020

June 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. 

07/01/2020

April 2020 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates.

05/01/2020

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”

04/23/2020

Property tax by County and Income

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey to provide Pennsylvania property tax data for 2018 by county, household income and homeowner age.

04/07/2020

Property tax Update Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association on property tax data recently published by the IFO.

03/13/2020

School District Property tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25.

02/06/2020

State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

01/29/2020

Testimony on Combined Reporting

Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony to the Senate Democratic Policy Committee regarding the potential impact of combined reporting on corporate net income tax revenues.

01/29/2020

OBMD, MTBI, R&D, and KIZ tax Credit Reviews and PBB Overview for DCED, DOH and DHS

IFO presentation of Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, Research and Development and Keystone Innovation Zone tax Credit Reviews and Performance-Based Budget highlights for the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Health and Department of Human Services.  

01/22/2020

Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Agenda- Year 2

The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings.

01/21/2020

Research and Development tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Research and Development tax Credit Report.

01/21/2020

Keystone Innovation Zone tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Innovation Zone tax Credit Report.

01/21/2020

Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment tax Credit Report.

01/16/2020

Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credit

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credit Report.

01/16/2020

tax Incentive Expansion

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office analyzed new or expanded tax credits and special zones approved by the General Assembly since 2009.

12/11/2019

School District Property tax Rebate

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a set of proposed school district property tax rebates for all homestead property owners.

11/12/2019

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

Announcement: The IFO will present its Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on Pennsylvania's tax and business climate.

11/06/2019

Property tax Replacement Estimates

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code affecting personal income and sales and use taxes.

10/04/2019

Senior Spending and tax Revenues

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes (1) state spending dedicated to seniors, (2) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors and (3) potential changes in senior migration patterns due to proposed tax law changes.  

09/27/2019

Property tax Elimination for Senior Homeowners

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposal to eliminate all property taxes for senior homeowners with household income of $40,000 or less. 

09/25/2019

Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017

This research brief uses state personal income tax data to estimate natural gas royalties paid to landowners in 2017. The data suggest that royalties paid increased significantly from the prior year due to increased production and higher prices.

09/20/2019

Property tax Rent Rebate Program

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that supplements a previous request to analyze a proposed expansion of the Property tax Rent Rebate Program.

09/17/2019

Property tax Rent Rebate Program

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed expansion of the Property tax Rent Rebate Program. Note: This analysis was originally posted on May 15, 2019. The analysis was reposted on September 12, 2019 to reflect technical adjustments made by the IFO based on research cited in the footnotes of the updated analysis.  

09/12/2019

Property tax Rebate for Older Homeowners

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis of a proposed property tax rebate for older homeowners based on various levels of household income.

09/12/2019

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 

08/28/2019

Property tax Rebate for Older Homeowners

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed property tax rebate for older homeowners based on various levels of household income. 

08/22/2019

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/18/2019

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/20/2019

Property tax Replacement Estimates

In response to a legislative request, the IFO has posted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code that affect personal income, sales and property taxes.

05/23/2019

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/22/2019

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/22/2019

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."  

03/22/2019

IFO News Stand - March Edition

The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

03/19/2019

SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY tax FORECAST

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.  

03/18/2019

Homestead Exclusion and PIT

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that computes the level of personal income tax (PIT) increase needed to fully fund a 100% homestead exclusion for school district property taxes.

03/13/2019

Income and Property tax Burden for Retirees

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States (December 2018). The letter also compares Pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states.

03/06/2019

Economic & Budget Outlook Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

03/01/2019

PROPERTY tax ELIMINATION PROJECTION

In response to a legislative request, the IFO has updated projections regarding school district property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be subject to replacement under potential legislation that would eliminate school property taxes.

02/27/2019

Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Agenda- Revised

The IFO has posted a revised agenda for the upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings.

01/22/2019

tax Credit Reviews

Click on the hyperlink above to access the (1) Film Production tax Credit, (2) Historic Preservation tax Credit, (3) New Jobs tax Credit and (4) summary PowerPoint presentation.

01/18/2019

Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Agenda

The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings.

01/16/2019

Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Schedule

The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings.

12/14/2018

IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION

The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

12/11/2018

State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) state tax rates and (4) state debt levels.

12/03/2018

IFO News Stand - November Edition

The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

11/20/2018

IFO News Stand - October Edition

The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

10/17/2018

tax Cut and Jobs Act Update- August 2018

In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy.

08/24/2018

IFO News Stand - August Edition

The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

08/20/2018

Property tax Update - August 2018

In response to a legislative request, the IFO updated select tables and graphs related to school district property tax that were originally released in January and December of 2017.

08/17/2018

IFO News Stand - July Edition

The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

07/24/2018

IFO News Stand - June Edition

The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

06/19/2018

Budget And Economic Update with Property tax Discussion

Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO). Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman also discussed an updated school district property tax forecast and recent proposed legislation. 

06/05/2018

IFO News Stand - May Edition

The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

05/16/2018

Federal tax Code Conformity Analysis

The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the General Fund revenue impact from conformity with certain federal tax code provisions.

04/27/2018

IFO News Stand - April Edition

The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends.

04/20/2018

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/18/2018

Corporate Net Income tax Rate Reduction

The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. 

04/11/2018

Neighborhood Assistance Program tax Credit

The IFO responds to a request regarding the Neighborhood Assistance Program tax Credit. 

04/02/2018

Pennsylvania Natural Gas Royalties

The IFO responds to a request regarding natural gas royalty payments in Pennsylvania. Based on draft statutory language provided by the Administration regarding the deductibility of the proposed severance tax from royalty payments, footnote 7 was added to the original letter. (March 23, 2018)

03/23/2018

Fiscal Impact of School Property tax Rebates

In response to a legislative request, the IFO estimated the fiscal impact of a school property tax rebate for all homesteads. The rebate would be equal to the statewide average school property tax paid by homesteads. The response includes both baseline estimates for currently eligible homesteads and estimates for a behavioral effect based on the filing of additional homestead applications in response to the availability of rebates.

03/13/2018

IFO Update on Selected Fiscal Topics and Pennsylvania Demographics

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) Pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017. 

03/09/2018

State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

02/01/2018

Performance-Based Budget and tax Credit Review Schedule

The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budgets and tax credit reviews.

01/30/2018

Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release

01/29/2018

School District Property tax Forecast

This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property.  Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23.

01/18/2018

Responsiveness of State tax Revenues to Economic Growth

In response to a legislative request, the IFO compared the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states.

12/26/2017

School Property taxes; Households Age 60, 65 and 70 or Older

In response to a legislative request, the IFO analyzed data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate the share of school property taxes paid by households in which the householder (or spouse, if applicable) had attained the ages 60 or over, 65 or over and 70 or over. The analysis applies the shares derived from the ACS to estimated school district property tax collections attributable to homestead properties for FY 2015-16 to further estimate the dollar amounts paid by such households.

12/11/2017

County Homestead Detail

As an extension of its recent research relating to property taxes, the IFO has released additional data regarding homestead property. Estimates for the numbers and assessed values of homestead properties by county are based, in large part, on the results of a survey of county assessment offices. The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania provided valuable assistance by coordinating the survey. Data for Philadelphia has been adjusted based on new information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue.

12/06/2017

School Property tax and Related Data

In response to a legislative request, the IFO collected and analyzed certain data related to school property taxes and potential replacement revenues. Data for Philadelphia in Table 3 has been adjusted based on information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. 

11/13/2017

Like-Kind Exchange Analysis

The IFO responds to a request regarding the economic benefit and tax revenue impact from eliminating Pennsylvania personal income tax on like-kind exchanges.

07/10/2017

State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 

05/31/2017

An Overview of School District Property tax Reform

Throughout May, Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan will make five presentations on the potential implications of school district property tax reform. The events are sponsored by the Pennsylvania Economy League and will take place at the various locations listed below. Click the following links for additional details: READING                   Thursday May 4th 7:30-9:00am WILLIAMSPORT       Friday May 5th 12:00-1:30pm YORK                         Thursday May 11th 12:00-1:30pm WILKES-BARRE       Friday May 12th 12:00-1:30pm LEHIGH VALLEY      Friday May 19th 12:00-1:30pm

05/04/2017

Property tax Elimination Projection

The IFO has released new projections regarding school property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be eliminated, and thus subject to replacement, under legislation that may be introduced in the near future (the relevant parameters are summarized in the document). The projection builds upon a school property tax forecast the IFO released in January of this year.

04/11/2017

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”  Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017)

04/05/2017

Philadelphia Cigarette & Beverage tax Impact

The IFO responds to a request regarding the impact of Philadelphia’s local cigarette and beverage taxes on state revenue collections. The letter has been revised to include current footnotes 3 and 6, which provide additional context for the assumptions used by the analysis.  (Revised on March 20, 2017)

03/13/2017

Pennsylvania Gaming Trends

This research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16.

02/13/2017

Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

02/10/2017

School District Property tax Elimination

Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association (PSBA) regarding the current proposal and forecasts for school district property taxes in Pennsylvania. *Updated February 13, 2017

01/19/2017

Updated School District Property tax Forecast

Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast.

01/09/2017

The Implications of Economic and Demographic Trends for State and Municipal tax Policy

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation at the Urban Economic and Policy Conference sponsored by Drexel University and Econsult Solutions entitled "The Implications of Economic and Demographic Trends for State and Municipal tax Policy."

04/24/2016

Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 

04/21/2016

Impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook

This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

06/25/2015

Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding proposed changes to personal income and sales tax

Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding changes to the personal income and sales taxes proposed in the Executive Budget.  The information was presented at a public hearing conducted by the Senate Finance Committee (June 2015).

06/10/2015

Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding a proposed severance tax

Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding a proposed severance tax . The information was presented at a public hearing conducted by the Senate Environmental Resources and Energy and Finance Committees (June 2015).

06/01/2015

Analysis of a Statewide Financial Transactions tax

Letter discussing issues that should be considered when evaluating a potential state-level tax on the transfer of securities (May 2015). The office was asked to discuss the viability of the tax and identify any benefits or detriments associated with it. 

05/15/2015

State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States

The report examines how Pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to make comparisons.

03/30/2015

Property tax Rebate Estimate

Letter providing estimates for a potential proposal to give homestead owners school property tax rebates equal to the statewide average school property tax paid (March 2015).

03/11/2015

Impact Fee Update - February 2015

This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

02/27/2015

Updated School District Property tax Forecast

Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school property tax collections for FY 2013-14 through FY 2019-20 (December 2014). 

12/12/2014

Fiscal Implications of a York County School District Consolidation

The report provides potential consolidation savings and costs for 15 York County school districts and computes the real estate tax millage using various earned income tax rates and administrative savings scenarios. Full Report Presentation

12/12/2014

Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate tax Comparison

This report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections)

03/17/2014

Analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older

Letter providing an analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older (October 2013). The analysis presents a preliminary assessment of data on the cost of a school property tax freeze for those homeowners and a brief discussion of factors that affect the cost of a freeze over the long-term.

10/29/2013

Analysis of Proposal to Replace School Property taxes: House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76

This report presents the results from an analysis of House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76 performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The proposed legislation eliminates local school district property taxes and replaces those funds with sales and use and personal income taxes, as well as monies redirected from the Property tax Relief Fund. Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee on 10/15/2013. Data for the graphs in section 4 of the report that display the annual and cumulative changes in personal income, sales and school property tax collections. Introduction, which contains summary results from the report.

10/01/2013

Projections of school property taxes paid by Pennsylvania homesteads

Letter containing projections of the school property taxes paid by Pennsylvania homesteads (September 2013). 

09/16/2013

Analysis of Michigan Property tax Reform

This report presents the results from an analysis of the Michigan property tax reform known as Proposal A. Enacted in 1994, Proposal A replaced all local property taxes used for school operating purposes with higher sales and use, realty transfer and tobacco taxes. It also created a distinction between homestead and nonhomestead property to facilitate the statewide levy of uniform property taxes on those classes of property. The report makes extensive use of data published by various Michigan executive and legislative agencies to illustrate the impact of property tax reform on tax revenues, millage rates, per pupil funding levels and the property tax base over the past two decades.

09/16/2013

Estimate of property taxes paid by Lancaster County homeowners aged 70 and over

Letter containing an estimate of property taxes paid by Lancaster County homeowners aged 70 and over (June 2013).

06/24/2013

Uncapping the Film Production tax Credit: A Fiscal and Economic Analysis

This report presents the results of an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on the fiscal and economic impacts of eliminating the cap on Pennsylvania’s film production tax credit (FPTC). The report also considers stand-alone tax credits for post-production and digital interactive media services.

05/31/2013

Corporate tax Base Erosion: Analysis of Policy Options

Analysis of the policies that states have used to preserve or expand the corporate tax base. The report focuses on two particular base retention or expansion policies: combined reporting and expense addbacks.

03/04/2013

Proposed Sales tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair

Analysis of a proposed sales and use tax exemption for purchases of fixed-wing aircraft, parts and maintenance, repair and overhaul services.

01/04/2013

TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Cover: Historic Preservation Tax Credit project: “The Millworks” located in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and

Hits: 349

TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and Jobs Creation tax credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

Page 1 Introduction This document discusses the methodologies used by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to forecast various tax and non-tax revenues. It contains three parts. The first part provides an overview of the general meth- ods used by the IFO. The second

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

Page 1 Introduction This document discusses the methodologies used by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to forecast various tax and non-tax revenues. It contains three parts. The first part provides an overview of the general meth- ods used by the IFO. The second

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

April 23, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released in February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

1 State and Local Taxes A Comparison Across States JANUARY 2020 Independent Fiscal Office About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 29, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and local taxes are necessary to fund the many services provided by governments such as education, law enforcement, healthcare, the building and maintenance of public

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

INTRODUCTION In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) undertook an analysis of state corporate net income tax (CNIT) rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. House Bill 130 of 2017 CNIT revenues to state personal income and population. Those two metrics are commonly used to compare the relative burden of taxes across states. The third section discusses the entities who bear the economic and statutory burden of the tax. Due to

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 April 17, 2018 This document provides an analysis of the tax proposals included in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released in February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) pub- lishes this report to Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analy- sis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This analysis uses various data sources to derive estimates

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

For FY 2014-15 to FY 2016-17, revenues will increase by 4.0 percent per annum. 2 • The Pennsylvania tax base will continue its long-term contraction due to demographic factors. General Fund Expenditure Trends Based on demographic and economic new or whether a particular series simply reverts to some historical norm. For example, it is known that personal income tax collections have increased since the previous recession. But merely knowing the level of collections does not provide a useful benchmark

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and Jobs Creation tax credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to

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SR2017-03.pdf

Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Methodology This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

January 4, 2013 Special Report 2013-1 Independent Fiscal Office Proposed Sales Tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue the results from an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) of a proposed Sales and Use Tax (SUT) exemption for purchases of fixed-wing aircraft, parts and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services. Legislation creating an SUT exemption consistent

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RB-2017-5.pdf

State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Responsiveness of Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction This analysis responds by a member of the General Assembly to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The analysis compares the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 1 For this analysis

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: The Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Mar- row Donation Tax Credits. The

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 22, 2019 This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released in February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office State and Local Tax Comparison Study October 2012 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). __________________________________________________________ This page was left blank intentionally. State and Local Tax Comparison Study 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction Policymakers often inquire about their state’s tax system relative to other states

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

On December 22, 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was signed into law. The act made significant changes to the federal individual income and corporate net income tax codes that generally became effective for tax year 2018. Recently, the IRS released state level tax data that reveal the

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Independent Fiscal Office

Independent Fiscal Office IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Independent Fiscal Office Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Natural Gas Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review News Stand & Other Featured Releases November Economic and Revenue Update News Stand & Other November 18, 2020 Director Matthew

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

19 budget proposal. For the upcoming year, the fulfillment of new statutory duties related to performance-based budgeting (PBB) and tax credit reviews will engage much of the office’s resources. A schedule for PBB and tax credit reviews, developed jointly with the Office of the Budget, can be found at the end of this submission. It

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) encourages businesses to invest in projects that serve distressed areas or support neighborhood conservation. 1 This tax credit program is administered by the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) and consists of five components: (1) the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit, (2) the Special Program Priorities, (3) the Neighborhood Partnership Program, (4) the Charitable Food Program and (5) the Enterprise

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Response-Letter-9-23-2019.pdf

to seniors by major category of taxation.  The impact on the net migration of seniors if school district property taxes were eliminated and (1) retirement income was taxed at a rate of 4.92 percent or (2) retirement income remains untaxed.  The potential impact on expected costs

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

Consumer Trends ........................................................................................................... 19 Housing Trends .............................................................................................................. 20 Section 4: Revenue Outlook ................................................................................................ 21 Revenue Versus Economic Growth ................................................................................... 22 Personal Income Tax ...................................................................................................... 24 Sales and Use Tax .......................................................................................................... 25 Corporate Net Income Tax .............................................................................................. 26 Gross Receipts Tax ......................................................................................................... 27 Realty Transfer Tax ......................................................................................................... 27 Other Revenue Sources ................................................................................................... 28 Section 5: Expenditure Outlook

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE sponsored by the PA Economy League MAY 19, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar Makes NO Policy Recommendations. 19.May.2017 Independent Fiscal Office 2 Broad overview of the potential implications of school property tax reform. Three parts: 1. Types of school property tax proposals that have been considered by the General Assembly. 2. Background

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Economic-and-Revenue-Update-2020.pdf

the FY 2020-21 budget proposal. For the upcoming year, new statutory duties related to performance-based budgeting (PBB) and tax credit reviews will engage much of the office’s resources. A schedule for PBB plans and tax credit reviews, developed jointly with the Office of the Budget, can be found at the end of this submission. In

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

shortfall to (1) the Education Stabilization Fund and (2) school districts.  Detail by revenue source.  Background on Property Tax forecast.  Some general economic analysis. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 2 The Proposal  Eliminates local school property tax.  Property taxes to service debt existing as of Dec. 31, 2011 retained and phased-out.  State funding based

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

000s) 46.7 52.2 60.4 61.8 Home Price Index 2.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% Tax revenues exceed estimate through February (+$135 million)  Strong acceleration of estimated income tax payments in Dec-Jan (+33%)  Mini-casino license auctions strong (+$90 million), inheritance collections above estimate (+$30 million) 

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

of Pennsylvania January 29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts.  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data and tax reform.  Federal tax cut: economic and General Fund impact.  Revenues: FY 17-18 update; preliminary look at FY 18-19. Public presentation

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reduction enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reductions enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office February 2020 1 February 2020 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

2,966 $3,089 $2,065 $4,767 $4,342 $2,608 $3,220 $35,518 Total Corporation Taxes 98 66 593 123 133 567 165 104 2,352 357 351 642 5,550 Corporate Net Income 93 59 571 112 461 Financial Institutions 0 1 15 2 1 9 5 1 337 3 1 10 383 Total Consumption Taxes 1,139 1,085 1,088 1,127 1,076 1,149 1,152 922 996 1,011 1,123 1,177

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization that works on federal, state, and local tax policy issues. ITEP's mission is to ensure that elected officials, the media, and the general public have access to accurate, timely, and straightforward information that allows them to understand the effects of current and proposed tax policies. Tax Rates and Economic Development : Any Linkage?  Unsurprisingly, no academic consensus  Some studies find significant, if small

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product a continuation of that trend. For 2018, the U.S. GDP data reflect the impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, but the impact is less noticeable for Pennsylvania. However, the tax law change did manifest

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RB-2016-02.pdf

Development Incentives Economic development incentives attempt to stimulate economic growth through various direct (e.g., expenditures) and indirect (e.g., tax credits) spending mechanisms. Many states publish comprehensive reports that detail their spending on economic development incentives. In Pennsylvania, the information machinery or other equipment and build more than they would have otherwise. Incentive programs seek to accomplish this through expenditures, tax breaks, loans or grants. The report excludes provisions that are intended to reduce distortions attributable to the tax code. For

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

Overview of School District Property Tax Elimination Presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director January 19 projections: November, May/June and January.  Special reports at request of General Assembly. First: Provide some context on property taxes.  School district reliance on property tax.  Compare PA and US average state-local tax structures. Next: Consider our

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RB-2018-01.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice January 2018 1 Research Brief 2018‐1 January 2018 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative and public interest. This analysis provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast for calendar years 2019 and 2020 projects that:  a continuation of that trend. For 2018, the U.S. GDP data reflect the impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, but the impact is less noticeable for Pennsylvania. However, the tax law change did manifest

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office March 2019 1 March 2019 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

be least severe across all 50 states due to the composition of the state economy and flat income tax structure. See https://www.taxadmin.org/assets/docs/econ-webinar/StressTesting-States_040920.pdf. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CBO Real GDP 2 3 provides estimates of the funds that will flow into Pennsylvania due to new and expanded federal programs, tax cuts and delays, and state UC payments attributable to COVID-19. These programs and provisions play a crucial role by moderating the

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2012 How Will the Proposed Extension of the Payroll Tax Cut Impact the PA Economy and Tax Revenues? Director’s Note: The following text discusses the possible economic impact from a policy under consideration by the U

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

Economic Update. Lots of jobs created, does not translate to spending. Weak spending yields minimal profits growth. Budget Proposals and Tax Burden Rankings. Deficit projections remain high (~$2.5 - $3.0 billion). PA state-local tax burden similar to U.S. average. Factors That Affect Revenue Shortfall Taxable consumer spending is weak.  Base sales tax

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

be least severe across all 50 states due to the composition of the state economy and flat income tax structure. See https://www.taxadmin.org/assets/docs/econ-webinar/StressTesting-States_040920.pdf. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CBO Real GDP 2 3 provides estimates of the funds that will flow into Pennsylvania due to new and expanded federal programs, tax cuts and delays, and state UC payments attributable to COVID-19. These programs and provisions play a crucial role by moderating the

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) dataset to present property tax information based on county, homeowner age and household income level. 1,2 These data show that in 2018, there were 3.48 million owner-occupied households in Pennsylvania. Those households paid an average of $3,457 in property taxes, or 3.4 percent of total household income. This figure includes all types of property taxes: school district, county and

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office February 8, 2013 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt 6 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 7 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 8 Personal Income Tax – Withholding 9 Personal Income Tax – Nonwithholding 10 Corporate

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

partisan Duties span a wide range of issues:  Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?)  Performance based budgeting | Tax credit reviews  Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics and economy  Labor

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

of AdministrationCommonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative Mike TobashDistrict 125 Berks and Schuylkill Counties Mr. David F. Werner, CPARetired PrincipalState and Local Tax ServicesParenteBeard LLC Representative R. Ted HarhaiDistrict 58 Fayette and Westmoreland Counties Mr. John J. Egan, Jr.President, J. Egan Consulting goals of the Commonwealth?.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Part V–Local Government Pensions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Part VI–Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Tables•Table 1–Personal Income Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates.. . . . . . 9•Table 2–Sales Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9•Table 3–Cash Infusion Projections – Public SchoolEmployees’ Retirement

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

Table 1 provides the most recent breakdown of the revenue sources used by school districts. The data show that property taxes comprised 42.4 percent of school district funds for FY 2016-17. Table 2 groups school districts into four quartiles based on the share of funding provided by property taxes. For the top quartile, property taxes provided nearly two-thirds of total funding (average across the 125 districts in that

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

fiscal year 2019-20 budget proposal. For the upcoming year, new statutory duties related to performance-based budgeting (PBB) and tax credit reviews will engage much of the office’s resources. A schedule for PBB plans and tax credit reviews, developed jointly with the Office of the Budget, can be found at the end of this submission. In

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Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf

 The estimates include the impact of changes in behavior and compliance at full implementation for each of the proposed tax rates.  Your letter indicates that the additional sales and use tax (SUT) would be imposed at the local level, similar to the existing local SUT in Philadelphia and Allegheny counties. Unlike

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

Investment .................................................................... 33 Activity 8: Local Government Operational Support ................................................................ 35 Activity 9: Community and Citizen Development ................................................................... 37 Activity 10: Tax Credit Administration .................................................................................. 41 Activity 11: Office of Open Records ..................................................................................... 43 Activity 12: Small Business Advocate ................................................................................... 45 Activity 13: Administration .................................................................................................. 47 Appendix ........................................................................................................................... 49 Regional and County Map ................................................................................................ 49 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ......................................... 51 Agency Response ............................................................................................................ 52 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology | Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 Consumer Debt 7 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 8 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 9 Personal Income Tax – Withholding 10 Personal Income Tax – Nonwithholding 11 Corporate Net Income Tax 12 Realty Transfer

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

Budget Outlook (November 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 3 (November 2016) • Impact Fee Estimate (January 2017) • School District Property Tax Forecast (January 2017) • Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements (January 2017) • Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2017) • Mid-Year Update FY Contracted Actuarial Analysis Actuarial Appropriated / Proposed Summary of IFO Expenditures Subtotal Operating Personnel Office Operations & Supplies Salaries Benefits Retirement Employer Taxes Computers, Networks, Servers and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Professional Publications & Research Materials Parking Other Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

Budget Outlook (November 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 3 (November 2016) • Impact Fee Estimate (January 2017) • School District Property Tax Forecast (January 2017) • Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements (January 2017) • Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2017) • Mid-Year Update FY Contracted Actuarial Analysis Actuarial Appropriated / Proposed Summary of IFO Expenditures Subtotal Operating Personnel Office Operations & Supplies Salaries Benefits Retirement Employer Taxes Computers, Networks, Servers and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Professional Publications & Research Materials Parking Other Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office March 8, 2018 Today’s Presentation Updates on topics covered in recent IFO analyses:  School property tax  Demographics  Revenue estimates  Pensions / Act 5 2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax Update New Forecast, Including Homestead Property Background on Property Tax and Discussion Regarding Possible Replacement Options Challenges for Replacement: Growing

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

revenues for the second quarter of 2015 were $166 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $38 million above estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $19 million below estimate and personal income tax revenues were $51 million above estimate. All other General Fund

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

March 13, 2020 Property Tax Update Pennsylvania School Boards Association March 13, 2020 School District Revenues: FY 2017-18 March 13, 2020 2 Source Amount Percent Property Tax $13,511 44.6% Earned Income $1,592 5.3% Other Local Sources $2,347 7.8% Act 1 Allocations

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

5 percent of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues exceeded estimate, sales and use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable

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QRR_2013Q4.pdf

million below estimate for the fourth quarter of calendar year 2013. 1 As shown by Table 1, corporate net income tax revenues were $58 million above estimate in the fourth quarter while sales and use tax and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by $32 million and $13 million, respectively. All other General Fund revenues

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

General Assembly, this research brief examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year. The analysis excludes other important local

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

 Gains (PIT and SUT) offset losses (CNIT and GRT).  ~$200 million short: non-receipt of JUA transfer.  Tax revenue growth: 16-17 (+1.6%) | 17-18 (+3.9%). FY 18-19: tax revenue growth of +4.2%.  Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy.  Corporate base expansion enhances revenues

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Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

November 14, 2019 Modernizing Pennsylvania’s Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Katherine Loughead Policy Analyst Center for State Tax Policy Tax Foundation kloughead@taxfoundation.org PENNSYLVANIA’S TAX CODE CONTAINS MULTIPLE BARRIERS TO BUSINESS TAX COMPETITIVENESS STATE  Uncompetitive

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RB-2015-02-annual_vs_lifetime_ETR.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office February 2015 Effective Tax Rate Comparisons – Severance Taxes An effective tax rate is useful when comparing state severance taxes because it incorporates not only the statutory tax rate

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

to-date revenues were $28.41 billion, an increase of $564 million (2.0%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue May-17 $2,582 $2,257 $325 Growth 32.8% 18.5% 719.7% FYTD $28,405 $27,527

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

5 percent of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and escheats (unclaimed property that is remitted to the Commonwealth, such as abandoned bank accounts, included in non-tax) revenues exceeded

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

gains from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax revenues very strong (much is permanent). Corporate net income gains (temporary, old tax years). IFO adds +$373 million to official

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

5 percent of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues exceeded estimate, sales and use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $9.6 million (-0.1 percent) below the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $27.4 million (-0.3 percent) below estimate and non-tax revenues were $17.8 million (29.8 percent) above estimate. As shown in the table below, two of the three

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

Economics). • Due to low gasoline prices. Low utility prices too. • Strong dollar also makes imports cheaper. Why Does This Matter? • Tax revenues include inflation. • Inflation is transmitted to tax revenues through (1) higher prices (SUT) and (2) higher wages (PIT). • Expenditure impact unclear (e.g., contracts and healthcare). • Inflation

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TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf

August 24, 2018 Page 2 the federal income tax returns filed by Pennsylvania residents, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is unable to simulate the number of taxpayers that would be affected and the potential increase in after- tax income due to the federal tax cut. Therefore, the data from Table 1 represent the upper limit on the number

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Corporate profits are domestic, non-financial profits only. Wages vs Tax Revenue Growth May 20, 2019 4 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Wage Growth Tax Revenue Growth strong profits internet sales income shifting +2.7 ppt difference ~+$860 million Avg. Growth Rates wages = 3.3%

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

70% of economic activity. o Federal, state and local budgets are constrained. o Weak overseas demand.  Sales and Use Tax collections have been very weak. o July to December growth = 2.1%.  Will it continue? o Higher federal taxes reduce disposable income in 2013. o Psychological impact: fiscal cliff and debt ceiling. o Any residual pent‐up demand? 23

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QRR_2014Q2.pdf

million below estimate for the second quarter of calendar year 2014. 1 As shown by Table 1, corporate net income tax and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by $80 million and $185 million, respectively. Sales and use tax collections were $44 million above

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

268 405 4.6% PIT - Other 2,992 410 15.9% All Tobacco 1,190 -26 -2.1% All Other Tax 1,761 97 5.9% All Non-Tax 2,468 1,589 180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.05.2018 2

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

in both years.  Borrow to fill FY 2016-17 deficit? Tobacco Fund and liquor.  FY 2017-18: severance tax, transfers, net operating losses.  Revenue options are limited.  Limited potential in further gaming expansion.  How quickly can  Baby Boom more pronounced in PA than US. Mid-Term: 5 - 10 Years.  Labor force may contract.  Tax burden falls on smaller cohort. Long-Term: 10+ Years.  Deaths exceed births.  Heavily dependent on international migration. Demographics

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $25.3 million (0.4 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Total tax revenues were $9.4 million (0.1 percent) above estimate and non-tax revenues were $15.8 million (34.5 percent) above estimate. As shown in the table below, two of the three

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

capture interstate migration patterns for calendar years 2012 and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania, more than five million federal tax returns were matched between the two years. The database of matched returns allows the IRS to identify a migrating taxpayer

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

official estimate by roughly $165 million if impacts related to COVID-19 are excluded. The overage was attributable to inheritance tax revenues ($101 million) and escheats collections ($118 million). Other revenue sources were relatively close to estimate. Table 2 (next page Notes: Millions of dollars. IFO Mid-Year Update released January 2020. GBO Budget released February 2020. SUT is sales-use tax. PIT is personal income tax. Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19 Independent Fiscal Office | Revenue Update | April 8, 2020 Independent

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QRR_2013Q3.pdf

million below estimate for the third quarter of calendar year 2013. 1 As shown by Table 1, corporate net income tax revenues were $25 million below estimate in the third quarter while sales and use tax and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by $15 million and $13 million, respectively. All other General Fund revenues

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

15 General Fund Revenue Projection ($ millions) Revenue Source June 16 Projection 1 Adjustments for Statutory Changes Updated Projection Tax Revenue $28,882.9 $40.0 $28,922.9 Non-tax Revenue 562.6 471.6 1,034.2 Total 29,445.5 511.6 29,957.1 1 Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

appears to accelerate recently.  FY 17-18: hitting estimate except for JUA transfer.  FY 18-19: moderately strong tax revenue growth. Final estimate to be released June 15.  May and June: large CNIT payments.  Will sales tax maintain recent strength?  Corporate Tax Bulletin. Potential revenue package. IFO Initial Estimate FY 2018-19 May.01.2018 2

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

for November and $338.9 million (2.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

5 percent of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues exceeded estimate, sales and use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The brief divides economic development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and reflect the utilization of tax credits (i.e., the application

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QRR_2015Q3.pdf

revenues for the third quarter of 2015 were $74 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $27 million below estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $17 million below estimate and personal income tax revenues were $31 million above estimate. All other General Fund

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Corporate profits are domestic, non-financial profits only. Wages vs Tax Revenue Growth June 11, 2019 4 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Wage Growth Tax Revenue Growth strong profits internet sales income shifting +2.7 ppt difference ~+$860 million Avg. Growth Rates wages = 3.3%

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

Fund collections were $2,329.2 million and were $90.8 million (4.1 percent) higher than July 2018. The tax revenue sources with the largest increase from the prior year include corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and inheritance tax. Sales and use tax (SUT) and realty transfer tax declined due to

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

for December and $419.7 million (2.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

8 million (1.9 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). October shortfalls in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and non-tax collections were partially offset by overages in gross receipts tax, sales and use tax (SUT) and inheritance tax. October CNIT

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx

Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 1/24/2019 0 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review: ▪ Identify the purpose for which the tax credit was established. ▪ Is the credit accomplishing

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf

Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review:  Identify the purpose for which the tax credit was established.  Is the

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QRR_2016Q1.pdf

revenues for the first quarter of 2016 were $195 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $28 million above estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $25 million above estimate and personal income tax revenues were $26 million above estimate. All other General Fund

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

for January and $320.6 million (1.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Sales and use tax (SUT) came in above estimate for the month while corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) came in below estimate. Other tax and non-tax revenues came in above projections

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

million ($75 million more than projected) from the auction of newly authorized mini-casino licenses. As a result, total non-tax revenues exceeded estimate by $260 million in January. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments for the month outpaced the estimate by $34 million. The strength in collections was entirely attributable to final

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

updated official estimate. February General Fund collections were $158 million (4.6 percent) above estimate. The three largest sources of tax revenue (personal income tax, sales and use tax and corporate net income tax) were all above estimate. Personal income tax (PIT) withholding payments exceeded

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

2 December collections were $67 million (2.4%) above estimate primarily due to stronger than anticipated collections in personal income tax (PIT) estimated payments ($80 million above estimate, 49.4%) and sales and use tax (SUT) - non-motor ($33 million, 4.4%). This strength was partially offset by unexpected weakness in corporate net income tax

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

FY 2017 -18, total General Fund revenues were $203.1 million (1.8 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $58.5 million (0.5 percent) above estimate and non-tax revenues were $144.5 million (181.1 percent) above estimate. The outperformance of General Fund revenues compared to the IFO

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QRR_2017Q2.pdf

7 million for the fiscal year-to -date (See page 2.). Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by a combined $553.1 million for the second quarter and below estimate by $820.2 Total General Fund $9,275.6 $9,794.0 -$518.4 $31,669.7 $32,510.4 -$840.7 Total Tax Revenue 8,697.5 9,256.3 -558.8 30,753.0 31,674.9 -921.9 Total Corporation Taxes

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

268 405 4.6% PIT - Other 2,992 410 15.9% All Tobacco 1,190 -26 -2.1% All Other Tax 1,761 97 5.9% All Non-Tax 2,468 1,589 180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.04.2018 3

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

are $381.9 million (1.6%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and insurance premiums tax offset shortfalls in gross receipts tax, cigarette tax and non-tax revenues. PIT collections were above estimate by $10.0

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly surplus was largely due to higher than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. Monthly CNIT collections were above estimate ($41.4 million). The surplus was due to both final ($24.7 by $232.7 million, driven by both final ($109.7 million) and estimated ($123.0 million) payments. Sales and use tax (SUT) came in over estimate ($6.6 million) for the month, with lower than anticipated motor vehicle collections (-$2.4

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

Excluding the JUA transfer, collections for the year were generally consistent with the IFO official estimate. June corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments were $26 million (-4.4 percent) below estimate. Final payments came in above estimate (8.3 percent), while short of estimate mainly due to final payments, which were $176 million below estimate for the year. Sales and use tax (SUT) collections exceeded estimate by $37 million in June. Non-motor collections drove the surplus (5.2 percent), while motor

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Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf

most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $74 million (1.8%) as gains in corporate tax receipts more than offset declines in other tax revenue sources.  Corporation tax revenues increased by $95 million (4.2%

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QRR_2017Q1.pdf

3 million for the fiscal year‐to‐ date (See page 2.). Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were above estimate by a combined $59.0 million for the first quarter and below estimate by $267.2 Total General Fund $8,939.3 $8,929.1 $10.2 $22,394.1 $22,716.4 -$322.3 Total Tax Revenue 8,747.7 8,749.7 -2.0 22,055.5 22,418.6 -363.1 Total Corporation Taxes

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QRR_2015Q4.pdf

revenues for the fourth quarter of 2015 were $94 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $20 million below estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $7 million above estimate and personal income tax revenues were $15 million above estimate. All other General Fund

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QRR_2015Q1.pdf

revenues for the first quarter of 2015 were $173 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $158 million above estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $20 million below estimate and personal income tax revenues were $31 million above estimate. All other General Fund

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

197 million (-7.4 percent) below estimate but are roughly meeting estimate for the fiscal year. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded estimate by $50 million. Collections from motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle sales tax were over estimate by $10 million and $39 million, respectively. Personal income tax (PIT) May collections were $10 million above

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

For the month of March, General Fund collections were $121 million (-2.7 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded estimate by $17 million, with a small shortfall in motor vehicle receipts (-$6 million) more than offset by an overage in non-motor collections ($22 million). Corporate net income tax payments were below estimate by $80 million (-15.8 percent). The shortfall was entirely attributable to final payments, which were

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up well, and actual revenues and non-recurring monies from casino license auctions. If we also control for what appears to be accelerated personal income tax payments (~$150 million), then the overage is roughly $40 million, and it is largely attributable to inheritance tax ($30 million

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

most recent actuarial valuations, both SERS and PSERS were “fully funded” with the assets in excess of the accrued liabilities. Tax Sheltered Annuity Plans (IRC 457 and IRC 403(b)) Act 81 of 1987 authorized the SERS Board of Trustees to to participate in a deferred compensation program, through which they may voluntarily defer receipt of compensation and build, on a tax deferred basis, supplemental retirement savings to augment their retirement benefits. The deferred compensation program, which is a type of defined

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Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf

Hughes: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates related to school district property tax rebates for eligible homesteads. Specifically, your letter requested the following estimates:  The number of properties that may qualify as homestead properties. 1  The statewide average school district property tax paid by homestead property owners.  The statewide median school district property tax paid by homestead property owners.  The

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

For the month of April, General Fund collections were $325 million (-8.0 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded estimate by $9 million. Collections from motor vehicle ($6 million) and non-motor vehicle ($3 million) sales were slightly over estimate. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments were below estimate by $31 million (-11.2 percent) in April. The shortfall was entirely attributable to final

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

fiscal year) and (3) $60 million that will shift to fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $33.4 million (-0.1 percent) below estimate through March. After of the virus, FYTD collections exceed the IFO estimate by roughly $165 million (0.7 percent). March corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections were short $64.3 million, split almost evenly between final and estimated payments (-$31.9 million and -$32

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

would also like to make some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based budget (PBB) plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY 2018-19 Through January, actual revenues exceed the IFO official revenue estimate by $321 January, revenues were roughly $100 million below estimate due to a shortfall in the fourth estimated payment for personal income tax. The year-to- date net overage is attributable to three sources: sales and use tax ($205 million over estimate), corporate

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

recipients are receiving 1 The estimate excludes any impact the pandemic has on unreported labor income. Recent IRS tax gap studies find that roughly one-half of self-employment income is not reported. See https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf dollar billions. Self-employment estimate excludes distributions to S corporation shareholders because owners do not pay self-employment tax on distributions. It also excludes any reductions in unreported self-employment income. See footnote 1 in text. Economic Update | Page 3 regular

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014 2 Independent Fiscal Office Scope and assumptions. Potential consolidation savings and costs. • Administrative savings, property tax relief, state funding, salary standardization and debt service. Calculation of real estate tax millage. • Implications for taxpayers. 16.Dec.2014 3 Presentation Overview District-wide tax base with uniform tax rates. Focus on

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

Revenue Analyst II Ms. Hall joined the IFO in May 2019. Primary responsibilities include forecasting corporate net income tax revenues, business- and economic-related research, performance-based budgeting initiatives and various other projects including the Special Education Funding Formula survey. Mathieu in June 2016. He is the primary analyst responsible for all reports and analyses related to local property taxes and natural gas. Other responsibilities include forecasting revenues for gross receipts and inheritance taxes and performance-based budgeting for agencies such as

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

inferred from other data sources. Royalty income is taxable and recipients must report those amounts on the Pennsylvania personal income tax return (Form PA-40, line 6). Unfortunately, royalty income is not reported separately on the tax return, but is combined with rental, patent and copyright income. However, given (1) the relatively recent surge in natural gas

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QRR_2017Q3.pdf

4 million for the third quarter of 2017. (See page 2.) Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were above estimate by a com- bined $1.1 million for the third quarter. General Fund revenues from all Total General Fund $6,933.1 $6,907.7 $25.4 $6,933.1 $6,907.7 $25.4 Total Tax Revenue 6,871.3 6,861.9 9.4 6,871.3 6,861.9 9.4 Total Corporation Taxes

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QRR_2016Q3.pdf

the third quarter of 2016 were $206.7 million below estimate. Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were below estimate (-$201.0 million). Total General Fund revenues from all other sources were below estimate (-$5.7 Total General Fund $6,614.5 $6,821.2 -$206.7 $6,614.5 $6,821.2 -$206.7 Total Tax Revenue 6,555.5 6,751.1 -195.6 6,555.5 6,751.1 -195.6 Total Corporation Taxes

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QRR_2014Q4.pdf

revenues for the fourth quarter of 2014 were $289 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $58 million above estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $27 million above estimate and personal income tax revenues were $17 million above estimate. All other General Fund

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

in August were $67.1 million (3.2 percent) above estimate. The overage was largely attributable to sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal-year-to- date (FYTD) collections are short of estimate by $24.8 million (-0.5 percent). August SUT

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

year-to-date (FYTD). General Fund collections for September were above estimate primarily due to overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and non-tax collections. September CNIT collections were above estimate ($96.3 million) due to higher than anticipated estimated

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

of the fiscal year, these payments are up 17.0 percent over the prior year.  Gains in realty transfer taxes, which are up 18.1 percent from the prior year.  Gains in escheats. While claim payments are meeting estimate growth rate of 2.0 percent. Technical factors, such as the complete phase‐out of the capital stock and franchise tax, restrain revenues and reduce the underlying base growth rate from 3.3 to 2.0 percent. Long‐Term Budget Outlook

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SR2017-05.pdf

2015 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau. Note: household income in this table excludes capital gains. The personal income tax (PIT) impact assumes that the entire amount of household income is subject to tax. The PIT estimates in this table should be viewed as a maximum for the median incomes listed because income for

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Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf

most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $134 million (7.3%), due to strong corporate net income tax and sales and use tax receipts.  Corporate net income tax collections increased by $42 million (115%). Approximately $21 million

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REU-2019-12.pdf

for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues. CNIT collections were $526.5 million for the month, which was 3.6 percent below estimate. The monthly

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REU-2019-10.pdf

for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was mainly due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. October SUT collections were $41.0 million over estimate (4.1 percent

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Response-Letter-05-13-2019.pdf

694 696 699 702 705 708 711 PTRR Payments 6 263 259 255 251 248 244 240 Act 1 Property Tax Subsidies 7 533 533 530 530 530 530 530 School District Property Tax 8 14,546 14,877 15,285 15,700 16,195 16,730 17,315 Homesteads Only 9 7,855

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QRR_2016Q4.pdf

2016 and $332.5 million for the fiscal year-to-date. Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by a combined $125.2 million for the fourth quarter and $326.2 million for the Total General Fund $6,840.3 $6,966.1 -$125.8 $13,454.8 $13,787.2 -$332.5 Total Tax Revenue 6,752.3 6,917.8 -165.4 13,307.8 13,668.8 -361.1 Total Corporation Taxes

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

in dollar millions. Main elements driving the structural imbalance are unchanged.  Demographic trends affect revenues and expenditures.  Slow tax base erosion and modest revenue growth.  Non-discretionary spending continues to drive expenditure growth. Recent policy changes (partially) addressed 105 5,894 -211 4.7% 1.1% Personal Income 6,808 6,723 -85 2.1% 0.9% Other Tax Revenue 2,011 2,016 5 10.1% 10.4% Non-Tax Revenue 203 220 17 -3.3% 4.8%

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perez ppt.pdf

is solid – Expenditures are stable – Budget gaps are few in FY 2012 Overview (continued) – States face ongoing budget challenges. – State tax collections remain below pre-recession levels – Officials are concerned about the strength of economic growth – Questions remain about the impact deficit reduction on state budgets – The total state budget gap: $527.7 billion (FY 2008- FY 2013 est.) FY 2012 Tax Collections (Compared with the Latest Estimate) Personal Income Tax* General Sales Tax Corporate Income Tax Above Estimate On Target Below

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

Tax Credit Reviews Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Mobile Telecom Broadband Research and Development Keystone Innovation Zones DCED PBB Highlights Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 23, 2020 2/27/2020 0 Tax Credit Reviews - Overview Tax credit reviews have four objectives ▪ Identify the purpose for which the tax credit was establishe d

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

12 million (0.5 percent) above estimate for July, primarily due to higher than anticipated motor vehicle sales and use tax (SUT, $17 million), non-motor SUT ($7 million) and insurance premiums tax ($20 million) collections that were partially offset by lower than anticipated escheats collections (-$22 million). Personal income tax (PIT) and

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

date revenues were $25.82 billion, a decrease of $73.1 million (-0.3%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Apr-17 $3,429 $3,214 $215 Growth -6.2% -6.1% -8.3% FYTD $25,823 $25,270

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

date revenues were $10.84 billion, an increase of $160.9 million (1.5%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Nov-16 $1,987 $1,941 $47 Growth 9.9% 8.0% 298.7% FYTD $10,836 $10,727

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

date revenues were $8.85 billion, a decrease of $18.4 million (-0.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Oct-16 $2,235 $2,231 $4 Growth 4.8% 5.8% -81.7% FYTD $8,849 $8,786

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

tobacco and IPT underperform.  Base growth rate for FYTD is negative (-1.0%).  Net revenue gains from transfers / tax law changes. The Big Picture 2 02.May.2017 Change to PA Economic Forecast Growth Rates or Change 2016 2017 All growth rates are year-over-year. Wage growth for 2017 Q1 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes

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RTR-2014-06.pdf

the prior fiscal year-to-date. Additional information can be found in the table below and on the following pages. • Tax revenues for the fiscal year increased by $31 million (0.1%) compared to the prior year. Corporate net income tax receipts increased by $78 million (3.2%), and capital stock and franchise tax collections dropped by $282 million (-46.9%

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Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf

period, General Fund collections increased by 1.3% over the same period in the prior year. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source September 2012 FY 12-13 to 27.2 $34.2 $34.2 $89.3 percent change 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 3.6% All Other Tax Revenue -$19.8 -$18.9 -$18.9 $29.3 percent change -8.8% 2.9% -2.9% 1.1% Tax

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Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf

2.5% over the most recent three- month period. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages. • Tax revenues declined by $79 million (-3.0%). A decrease in corporation tax collections of $138 million (-21.3%) offset increases in other tax revenues. For the fiscal year, tax revenues increased by

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REU-2020-02.pdf

fiscal-year- to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was a result of stronger than expected collections in corporate net income tax (CNIT), gross receipts tax (GRT) and personal income tax (PIT). The $36.1 million February GRT surplus was largely due to firms making early

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Public_Data-General_Fund.xlsx

Fiscal Year SUMMARY | DETAIL - CORPORATE TAXES | DETAIL - CONSUMPTION TAXES | DETAIL - OTHER TAXES | DETAIL - NON-TAX REVENUES (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

estimate for the year. The FY overage was primarily generated by stronger than anticipated collections related to corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) annual payments and licenses and fees revenue associated with gaming expansion. The surplus in PIT

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was the result of strong collections in sales and use tax (SUT) countered by weaker than expected collections in personal income tax (PIT). SUT collections surpassed the monthly forecast by $56.2 million. This was a result of robust non-motor collections

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

1%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by unusually strong personal income tax (PIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. PIT collections were above estimate by $313.7 million for the month

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

date reve- nues were $6.61 billion, a decrease of $121.2 million (-1.8%) from the prior year. General Tax Non-Tax Sept-16 $2,627 $2,625 $1 Growth -3.9% -3.1% -95.6% FYTD $6,614 $6,555 $59

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

date revenues were $30.90 billion, an increase of $309.1 million (1.0%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue June-16 $3,061 $3,031 $30 Growth 5.0% 3.8% 969.2% FYTD $30,902 $30,258

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

1895. Their development at that time followed the passage in 1889 of a state law which levied a 2 percent tax on foreign fire insurance premiums to provide benefits to protect volunteer firefighters and their families. As of calendar year 2002 may provide to its members. STATE AID State aid revenues distributed annually to FRAs are derived from a 2 percent tax imposed on the gross premiums of fire insurance policies written in Pennsylvania by foreign companies. The term “foreign fire insurance

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RTR-2014-04.pdf

of $80 million for liquor store profits that occurred in March this year but normally occurs in June. Personal income tax withholding remittances were also artificially inflated by roughly $100-$105 million because of a due date falling on April 30 year, but May 1 st last year. Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Total tax revenues declined by $143 million (-4.2%). Over the past three months, revenues declined by $137 million (-1.5%) compared

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RTR-2013-10.pdf

million (1.1%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $54 million (2.7%). The largest increases were in the sales and use tax ($28 million) and the personal income tax ($29 million).  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $3 million (2

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Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf

by 5.5% and 2.0% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source October 2012 FY 12-13 to 23.8 $58.0 $50.9 $108.6 percent change 28.1% 13.1% 12.5% 4.4% All Other Tax Revenue $4.0 -$14.8 -$16.4 $16.7 percent change 1.8% -1.7% -2.4% 0.6% Tax

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf

million (1.2%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues decreased by $30 million (-1.7%). An increase in sales and use tax collections of $39 million (5.3%) partially offset decreases in personal income tax revenues totaling $75 million (-9.8%). For

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Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf

most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $162.4 million (5.0%), led by strong gains in the annual payments made with the filing of personal income tax returns.  Corporate net income tax receipts increased by $53 million (17.1%). For the fiscal year, the revenue gain

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REU-2019-11.pdf

percent) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by stronger than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) non-motor and personal income tax (PIT) withholding collections, which were partially offset by weak SUT motor vehicle tax

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

64% of total), transfer receipts (17%), dividends, interest and rent (19%). Net earnings include wages and salaries (less social insurance tax contributions) and business profits. Transfer receipts include government assistance to individuals such as Social Security and medical benefits. In the further boost to wage growth during the next few quarters. PA PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH STEADY General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul-17 $2,085 $2,063 $22 Growth 5.7% 6.7% -42.4% FYTD $2

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

date revenues were $22.39 billion, an increase of $153.9 million (0.7%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Mar-17 $4,422 $4,376 $46 Growth -1.4% -0.4% -51.1% FYTD $22,394 $22,055

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

date revenues were $17.97 billion, an increase of $218.3 million (1.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Feb-17 $1,875 $1,803 $72 Growth 1.1% -0.9% 102.6% FYTD $17,973 $17,680

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

date revenues were $16.10 billion, an increase of $197.8 million (1.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jan-17 $2,643 $2,569 $73 Growth 5.7% 5.6% 10.9% FYTD $16,097 $15,877

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

date revenues were $13.45 billion, an increase of $54.2 million (0.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Dec-16 $2,618 $2,581 $37 Growth -3.9% -4.3% 27.5% FYTD $13,455 $13,308

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

revenues were $3.99 bil- lion, a decrease of $14.8 million (-0.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Aug-16 $2,015 $1,996 $20 Growth 7.9% 8.0% 0.2% FYTD $3,988 $3,930

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16-19 51.9% 48.8% 44.4% 40.9% Monthly Trends Report General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul 2015 $2,135 $2,097 $38 Growth -4.9% 5.1% -84.9% FYTD $2,135 $2,097

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

Wharton Budget Model 3 Debt has a Snowball Effect on GDP Penn Wharton Budget Model 4 Example: PWBM Model with Tax Module Penn Wharton Budget Model 5 We always validate before projecting forward: A few examples 6 Education (1996 – 2070) Penn Penn Wharton Budget Model 10 Census Data Microsimulation Marriage (1996 – 2070) Penn Wharton Budget Model 11 Census Data Microsimulation “The Tax Cut and Jobs Act” Static Analysis 12 Revenue Impact Revenue Effect 2018-2027 (billions of $) Revenue Effect 2018-2040 (billions

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RTR-2014-10.pdf

to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 4.1%.  Tax revenues increased by $144 million (7.0%) over the prior year and by $420 million (5.2%) over the prior

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RTR-2013-12.pdf

million (0.5%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues decreased by $53 million (-2.2%). The largest decrease over December 2012 occurred in the other corporate taxes (-$66 million).  Other corporate taxes decreased $169 million (-45.4%) fiscal year-to-date driven mostly by the continued

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf

8% over the most recent three-month period. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $99 million (5.5%). An increase in personal income tax collections of $117 million (16.9%) offset decreases in corporate tax revenues totaling $34 million (-30.9%). For the most

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf

in the prior year. For the twelve month period, General Fund collections increased by 1.0%. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source August 2012 FY 12-13 to 0.1 $7.0 $44.1 $84.4 percent change -0.4% 9.5% 11.7% 3.5% All Other Tax Revenue -$0.7 $0.9 -$0.7 $59.6 percent change -0.3% 0.2% -0.1% 2.3% Tax

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REU-2020-01.pdf

by $195.4 million (1.1 percent). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections, which were partially offset by higher than expected sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. CNIT collections of $92

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Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf

Mastriano: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the annual loss of tax revenue associated with the elimination of property taxes – imposed by all political subdivisions - on residents that are age 65 or older and have an annual household income of

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

crisis.  Persists even when PA economy returns to “normal” growth. Demographic trends and budget implications.  Aging populace.  Tax base erosion and expenditure cost-drivers. Short-term revenue outlook.  FY 2016-17 revenue shortfall.  Moderate growth rate different data source. Share is percentage outflow. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. Persistent Tax Base Erosion 7/14/2017 16 Personal Income Tax.  Wage income less important. Larger share of income not subject

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

million for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was due to stronger than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and escheat collections. September CNIT revenues outperformed the forecast by $40.1 million due to overages in both final

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

date revenues were $25.90 billion, an increase of $181.1 million (0.7%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Apr-16 $3,656 $3,422 $235 Growth -8.7% -3.8% -47.3% FYTD $25,897 $25,322

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

date revenues were $17.75 billion, an increase of $313.9 million (1.8%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Feb-16 $1,855 $1,819 $36 Growth 6.4% 5.7% 62.9% FYTD $17,754 $17,508

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

and expenditures?  What is the likely path of the Pennsylvania economy over the next six years?  Will future tax revenues be sufficient to fund the policy choices reflected in the FY 2012-13 budget?  Are current tax and spending policies fiscally sustainable? The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 3 15.Nov.2012 What is the Purpose? 

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About IFO

Knittel has taught courses at George Washington, Johns Hopkins, and Penn State Universities and published several articles in the National Tax Journal, the NBER and US Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis working paper series. Brenda Warburton Deputy Director Prior to joining the IFO, Ms. Warburton held several positions related to

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RTR-2014-12.pdf

to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 5.6%.  Tax revenues increased by $287 million (12.2%) for the month and $746 million (6.1%) for the fiscal year. Some

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RTR-2014-11.pdf

to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 3.7%.  Tax revenues increased by $38 million (2.3%) over the prior year and $459 million (4.7%) over the prior fiscal

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RTR-2014-02.pdf

6%) above the prior fiscal year-to-date. Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Tax revenues increased by $4 million (0.3%) over February 2013 and $121 million (0.8%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date.  Total corporate taxes decreased by $6 million (-9.8%) for the month. Insurance premiums tax revenues were $6 million (55.5%) higher than

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RTR-2014-01.pdf

million (0.6%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Tax revenues increased by $9 million (0.4%). Increases in corporate taxes and sales tax were offset by a decline in personal income tax.  Sales and use tax collections increased by

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RTR-2013-11.pdf

million (1.1%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $34 million (2.0%). The largest increases were in the sales and use tax ($14 million) and the personal income tax ($9 million).  Sales and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits grew by $21

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Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf

responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed property tax rebate for homeowners in certain age and income ranges. The specified age and income ranges are as follows:  Homeowner 000; and  Homeowner age 65 or older with household income less than $70,000. The proposal provides a property tax rebate of up to $5,000 to eligible homeowners based on age and income, not to exceed actual school district

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

IHS Global Insight and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 24 . Sept . 2013 5 Headwinds - Federal Policy Expiration of Payroll Tax Cut and the Sequester. o $5.3 billion reduction in 2013 PA Disposable Income. o Spending Sequester - $85 billion for data. Look at data from first quarter of FY 2013-14. 24 . Sept . 2013 10 Are PA Consumers Spending? Sales Taxes nearly one-third of General Fund. Non-Motor Sales Tax collections remain weak. o For first quarter of FY 2013-

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

3.5% Personal Income 12,088 5.7% 12,662 4.8% Inheritance 984 12.1% 906 -7.9% Other Tax Revenue 4,034 -2.8% 3,981 -1.3% Non-Tax Revenue 1,107 117.4% 543 -50.9% Dollar amounts are in millions. One-time revenues ~+$630m 2015-16 2016-

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Income and Jobs Composition Changes. Expenditure and Revenue Implications. • Expenditures Affected by Population Growth in Groups. • Aging Populace Contributes to Tax Base Erosion. 3 Today’s Presentation 12.May.2016 Demographic Trends All Projections from Penn State Data Center Reflects US 12.May.2016 +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income. • Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. • Wage income less important. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security. • Social Security income meant to be “supplemental.” • What

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

Job Creation. Spending patterns.  Service sector jobs. Slower growth. Housing pressures. Transition to local unit trends.  Earned income tax and property tax.  Focus on wage growth. August.08.2018 2 Good Morning & Today’s Presentation Established in 2011. Non-partisan analysis

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

local governments continue to devote more resources to education and treatment. The Pennsylvania Opioid Crisis General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Aug-17 $2,129 $2,086 $43 Growth 5.6% 4.5% 119.5% FYTD $4,214 $4,149

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

date revenues were $22.24 billion, an increase of $529.0 million (2.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Mar-16 $4,486 $4,392 $94 Growth 5.0% 4.3% 57.2% FYTD $22,240 $21,901

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

Social Security recipients are to receive a 2.0% COLA in 2017. October 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Oct-15 $2,132 $2,109 $23 Growth -4.9% -4.6% -27.8% FYTD $8,868 $8,764 $103 Growth 0.1% 2.6% -66.8% Dollar amounts are in millions. Tax Revenue The Commonwealth collected $2.13 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $109.9 million (-4

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

activity. 2 Annual average growth since 2006. 3 Thousands of payroll jobs. August 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Aug-15 $1,868 $1,848 $20 Growth 4.3% 4.1% 23.7% FYTD $4,003 $3,945 $57 Growth -0.9% 4.6% -78.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. Tax Revenue The Commonwealth collected $1.87 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $76.4 million (4

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

or loss associated with the business operations of all members of the unitary group, and income is apportioned to the taxing jurisdiction based on the activity of the combined group within that jurisdiction. Those who support combined reporting note that:  the filing method reduces a firm’s ability to shift profits to low or no tax states through related-party transactions and is subject to less manipulation by firms;  it will “level the playing field

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) provides state data on in and out migration by the age of the primary tax filer. These data may be utilized to estimate the income earners and dependents migrating in and out of the state questions, please do not hesitate to contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director Enclosures 3 Table A Pennsylvania Federal Tax Returns by Age of Primary Income Filer and Domestic Migration from 2013 to 2014 Number of Federal Tax Returns in

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RTR-2015-02.pdf

1,145 million (7.0%) higher than the prior year. However, after adjusting for one-time transfers, an unexpected inheritance tax payment and the timing of receipts, the year-to-date growth was $739 million (4.5%). Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Sales and use tax collections increased by $30 million (4.8%) for the month and $285 million (4.7%) for the fiscal year-to-

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RTR-2014-09.pdf

s $227 million in one-time transfers from special funds, the fiscal year-to-date growth rate was 4.6%. • Tax revenues increased by $159 million (6.6%) compared to September 2013. Fiscal year-to-date tax revenues increased by $276 million (4.6%). • Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $96 million (25.2%) for the

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RTR-2014-08.pdf

transfers from special funds. Excluding those transfers, the fiscal year-to-date General Fund growth rate was 3.5%.  Tax revenues increased by $33 million, or 1.9%. Fiscal year-to-date and recent twelve- month growth rates were 3.2% and 0.3%, respectively.  Personal income tax revenues increased by $22 million compared to August 2013. Withholding collections increased by $21 million (3.3%) for the month

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RTR-2014-07.pdf

Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of $323 million (16.8%) over July 2013. Non-tax collections include $227 million in one-time transfers from special funds. Absent these transfers, General Fund revenue increased by $97 million, or 5.0%. Additional detail can be found in the table below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $83 million, or 4.4%. The one-month growth in tax revenues has exceeded the recent 3-

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RTR-2014-05.pdf

year-to-date. Additional information can be found in the table below and on the following pages. • Corporate net income tax revenues decreased by $32 million (-41.0%) from the prior year, yet remain $40 million (2.0%) above the prior fiscal year-to-date. For the twelve- month period, remittances have been flat. • Financial institutions tax revenues increased by $30 million from the prior year due to atypical bank shares tax deposits of $37 million. Nearly

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RTR-2014-03.pdf

above the prior fiscal year-to-date. Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Total tax revenues grew by less than $1 million (0.0%). Over the past three months, revenues increased by $14 million (0.2%) compared to the same period last year.  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $63 million (17.7%) for the month. Most of the increase was in final payments, which were

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf

in the prior year. For the most recent twelve month period, collections increased by 1.0%. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source July 2012 FY 12-13 to 7.1 $7.1 $49.8 $88.2 percent change 18.9% 18.9% 12.5% 3.6% All Other Tax Revenue $7.6 $7.6 $67.1 $231.7 percent change 2.9% 2.9% 5.2% 3.6% Tax

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Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf

by 6.3% and 2.1% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source December 2012 FY 12-13 to 19.1 $63.4 $29.2 $99.3 percent change 20.3% 11.0% 13.3% 4.0% All Other Tax Revenue -$2.7 $6.7 $25.5 $36.4 percent change -1.1% 0.5% 3.9% 1.4% Tax

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

Is the Independent Fiscal Office? • Our role in the budget process. • Other products and publications. Tax Revenues and Budget Deficits. • Tax revenues through January 2015. • Revisions to FY 2014-15 General Fund revenues. • Implications for projected budget deficits. Latest Economic Developments Economic Report. • Monthly Revenue Trends Report.  Special Studies (at request of Gen. Assembly): • HB 1776 and SB 76 – Property Tax Reform. • Medicaid Expansion. • Film Tax Credits. • Taxation of Natural Gas in Pennsylvania. • Consolidation of York County School Districts. Other Products

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

preliminary data through December. Factors That Could Impact Growth Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal shut down (?)  Federal tax cut / refunds  Consumer sentiment  Stock market volatility Maintain / Boost  Strong labor market  Solid income growth  n.a. n.a. All Other 1,101 -12.7% 1,047 55 1,065 185 Note: Millions of dollars. Tax revenues up 5.7% from prior fiscal year. Growth Rate Comparison Thru January January 29, 2019 7 Projected Actual General

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining agreements. ◦ Special studies at request of General Assembly. Dec.13.2017 2 A Unique for the current year. Preview of next year. Early April: analysis of proposals in Executive Budget. ◦ Any proposal that affects tax revenues. Dec.13.2017 4 Today: A (Very) Quick Overview Highlights from Economic & Budget Outlook. ◦ Demographics: rapid aging, domestic out-

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

date revenues were $31.7 billion, an increase of $768.1 million (2.5%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue June-17 $3,264 $3,226 $38 Growth 6.7% 6.5% 27.3% FYTD $31,670 $30,753

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

date revenues were $15.9 billion, an increase of $201.8 million (1.3%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jan-16 $2,499 $2,433 $66 Growth 4.2% 5.9% -34.7% FYTD $15,900 $15,689

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

Trade Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1,808 $1,796 $12 Growth 4.3% 3.8% 374.9% FYTD $10,676 $10,561

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

billion (76.2 percent) above collections for July 2019. Roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July monthly collections exceeded the prior year total by closures earlier this year and the continued effect of federal economic impact payments and enhanced unemployment compensation benefits. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for July were $2.31 billion, an increase of $1.29 billion (126.1 percent) above the prior

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines two federal agencies.  Congressional Budget Annual budget projections.  Special studies on revenues or expenditures.  Joint Committee on Taxation.  “Scoring” of changes to tax policy.  Analysis of various tax code provisions. 10.Jul.2012 2 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Staff  Office currently

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-year

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RTR-2015-04.pdf

billion (7.5%) higher than the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding one-time transfers and a $100 million inheritance tax payment in October 2014, fiscal year-to-date growth is 6.1%.  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $34 million (4.3%) for the month and by $282 million (3.8%) for the fiscal

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RTR-2015-03.pdf

1.2 billion (5.9%) higher than the prior year. However, adjusting for one-time transfers and an unexpected inheritance tax payment, the year-to-date growth was $875 million (4.3%). • Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $96 million (22.8%) for the month and $252 million (15.3%) for the fiscal year-to-

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RTR-2015-01.pdf

were $1,051 million (7.2%) higher than the prior year. However, adjusting for one-time transfers, an unexpected inheritance tax payment and the timing of receipts, the year-to-date growth was $645 million (4.4%).  Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $32 million (35.9%) for the month. Some of the increase is attributable to distributions from the

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

withdrawals from 401k and IRA  Up to $100,000 for qualified persons | 10% penalty does not apply  Associated taxes can be paid off ratably over three years  Unknown how much withdrawn under program Shifting consumer spending patterns  Recovery Period: Revenue Growth Rates October 29, 2020 8 Mitigation Mar to Jun Recovery Jul to Oct Notes General Fund Tax -9.2% 0.4% Corp. Net Income -12.3% -5.2% much better than expected Sales - Non-Motor -7.1%

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

4 Federal UC Payments 13.9 Healthcare Providers 1.9 SNAP 0.3 Educational Institutions 0.5 Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 Total $78.0 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.8 Note: Billions of dollars. Federal UC Payments include FPUC, PUA

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Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf

by 5.1% and 1.4% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source November 2012 FY 12-13 to 13.7 $44.3 $37.3 $79.6 percent change -33.8% 9.2% 9.1% 3.2% All Other Tax Revenue $24.2 $9.4 $8.5 $51.3 percent change 12.4% 0.9% 1.3% 2.0% Tax

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Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf

most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenue fell by $85 million (-5.0%) for the month, primarily due to a decline of $98 million in personal income tax collections.  Personal income tax receipts declined for the following reasons: o Employer withholding deposits were $92 million (-11.9%

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

governmental function, official oppression, and speculating or wagering on official action or information. A criminal offense under the personal income tax chapter of the Tax Reform Code of 1971 is also such a crime as is a criminal offense under federal law substantially the same

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

4 Federal UC Payments 14.7 Healthcare Providers 2.1 SNAP 0.4 Educational Institutions 0.5 Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 Total $78.7 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.5 Note: Billions of dollars. Federal UC Payments include FPUC, PUA

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

from 26% to 34% by 2038, while the homeownership rate is anticipated to decline. Americans Pay about 86% of Federal Taxes Owed On September 26, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released new estimates on taxpayer compliance. It report- ed an annual gap of $381 billion between taxes owed and taxes collected. The analysis covered tax years 2011 through 2013 and found that voluntary compliance remained relatively unchanged

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

date revenues were $27.84 billion, an increase of $163.8 million (0.6%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue May-16 $1,944 $1,905 $40 Growth -0.9% 2.2% -59.6% FYTD $27,841 $27,227

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MRU-2020-08.pdf

August were $247.7 million (10.8 percent) higher than anticipated. The overage was largely attributable to sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $392.3 million (6.3 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were

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MRU-2020-06.pdf

from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. The impact of the virus was partially offset by a $35 million overage in various other revenue sources. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections for June were $243.8 million (-38.5 percent) below estimate. The majority of the shortfall (-$190.6

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf

most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenue grew by $176 million for the month, primarily due to an increase of $173 million in personal income tax collections.  Personal income tax receipts were robust for the following reasons: o A due date occurring in February last

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

expenditures across states in Federal Fiscal Year (FFY) 2018. Some states receive more in federal expenditures than they pay in taxes, while other states bear the tax burden while receiving less federal benefits. This is known as the “balance of payments” and is influenced by factors such

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

monies removed through January ($39 million, to be deposited in June). Non-motor SUT and Cigarette and OTP adjusted for tax changes. PIT – Withholding adjusted for extra due date. CSFT assumed to be zero both years. Through January Revised Estimate Actual IFO Revised Estimate FY 2016-17 25.Jan.2017 14 Non-Motor SUT Growth Note: Adjusted SUT controls for expanded tax base and transfers. Uses one month lag to coincide with withholding and economic activity. Withholding growth rates are adjusted for

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Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf

as federal Wisconsin depends on income limited exemption exempt Wyoming n.a. n.a. n.a. Table 1 State Income Tax Treatment of Retirement Income Note: n.a. represents states that have no personal income tax on wages. Source: Retirement Living Information Center and CCH IntelliConnect. Ratio Ratio All Residents 2.66% All Residents 2.94%

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

2017 4 2-Year Impact Revenue Package $1,006 Revenue Enhancements 304 Loans or Leasebacks 335 Gaming Expansion 250 Reduce Tax Credits 100 Consolidation/Closures/Complement 351 2016-17 DHS Savings 165 Pupil Transport Savings & U. Penn Approp. 82 Miscellaneous Efficiency 2017-18 Executive Budget and Feb. 7, 2017 budget presentation. The Revenue Package February 28, 2017 5 2017-18 Broaden Tax Base Sales – Custom Programming $330 Sales – Storage and Aircraft 160 Insurance Premiums Tax 142 Tax Reform Corporate – Combined Reporting 0

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf

request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. Currently, the PTRR program provides base rebates of $250 to $650 to certain who (1) have household incomes below $30,000 and (2) pay at least 15 percent of that income in property taxes. 1 Homeowners in the cities of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Scranton in this income range receive the supplemental rebate regardless of

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The difference was attributable to sales and use tax (SUT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $739.6 million (8.1

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MRU-2020-04.pdf

year) and (3) $1.60 billion that will shift to fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.19 billion (-7.4 percent) below estimate through April and are 5.7 percent below collections for the same period in the prior fiscal year. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for the month were significantly below estimate (-$1.48 billion), with the entire shortfall attributable to the virus

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

Office  Revenue and Expenditure Detail, Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson| The PEW Charitable Trusts  Evaluation of State Economic Development Tax Incentives November 16, 2017 2 Budget Emphasis: Cost Containment State governments have used three methods.  Efficiency Initiatives - Lean, TQM  Cost-Benefit Analysis - PEW Results First model.  Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB). Act 48 of 2017: New PBB and tax credit review duties.  IFO to develop PBB plans for all executive agencies.  Develop clear metrics to measure progress

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

prior year transfers do not recur. • Escheat collections return to a “normal” level. • Elimination of the capital stock and franchise tax. • Technical considerations affect timing of revenues. Highlights of January Report 8.Jun.2016 7  Impact of changes on FY 8  FY 2016‐17 revenue estimate increased by $61 million in the May 3 rd release. • Corporate net income tax increased by $101 million and non‐tax sources increased by $51 million. • Personal income tax decreased by $113 million. • Other

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MRU-2020-10.pdf

with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The key variances are attributable to sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $1.01 billion (8

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MRU-2020-05.pdf

fiscal year) and (3) $70 million that will shift to fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. The impact of the virus was partially offset by a $10 million overage in various revenue sources. May fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.70 billion (-8.4 percent) below estimate. Monthly sales and use tax (SUT) collections were below estimate by $282.9 million or 28.8 percent in May, with the shortfall in non-

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

2,824 $2,984 $1,982 $4,551 $3,905 $2,599 $3,028 $33,899 Total Corporation Taxes 81 55 549 130 60 533 148 75 2,246 307 345 581 5,111 Corporate Net Income 77 47 527 125 426 Financial Institutions 0 1 16 1 1 8 1 1 321 3 1 9 363 Total Consumption Taxes 1,100 1,027 1,029 1,083 1,003 1,086 1,072 878 946 1,058 1,033 1,101

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

still relies on stronger growth in the second half of the fiscal year. Factors that likely affected economic growth and tax revenues in 2013, such as the expiration of the federal payroll tax cut and the federal budget sequester, should be fully absorbed at this point. However, recent wage growth and consumer spending

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

and credited to the participant's individual investment account in excess of the mandatory pickup participant contributions, either by after-tax salary deductions paid through the employer or by an eligible rollover or direct trustee-to-trustee transfers. Section 102. Section 403(b) plans. 8412. Responsibility for investment loss. 8413. Investments based on participant's investment allocation choices. 8414. Expenses. 8415. Tax qualification. § 8401. Establishment. (a) School Employees' Defined Contribution Plan.--The School Employees' Defined Contribution Plan is established. The board shall

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

Commission Public Welfare Revenue Securities Commission State State Employees' Retirement System State Ethics Commission State System of Higher Education ** State Tax Equalization Board Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology Transportation Treasury Department * Pennsylvania State Police Officers have their own eligibility requirements and any, are high enough to allow sufficient funding. • Earnings in trust or account are not subject to unrelated business income tax (UBIT). • Contributions to the trust are not taxable to employees, and benefit pay- ments from the trust are not taxable

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Releases

Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers October 13, 2020 | News Stand & Other This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

workers. 3.Dec.2014 A Continuation of Broad Trends 15 Fiscal Outlook Year-to-Date Revenues Long-Term Fiscal Imbalance Tax Base Erosion 3.Dec.2014 16 3.Dec.2014 17 Fiscal Year-to-Date Revenues Strong FYTD Nov-13 FYTD 3,998 190 5.0 Corporate Income 653 730 77 11.8 Inheritance 355 450 95 26.8 All Other Tax 932 904 -28 -3.0 All Non-Tax 77 87 9 12.0 Note: millions of dollars. PIT is Personal

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

2,907 $2,799 $2,191 $4,515 $3,914 $2,577 $3,233 $35,874 Total Corporation Taxes 221 278 489 98 69 444 115 136 2,089 294 305 524 5,060 Corporate Net Income 216 271 474 89 447 Financial Institutions 0 1 9 1 1 6 1 1 350 4 1 6 382 Total Consumption Taxes 1,178 1,021 1,008 1,089 1,032 1,144 1,167 939 1,005 1,010 1,130 1

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

State or Federal Policy Changes.  But, the Governor must bring budget into balance.  What about the federal government? Taxes? ACA? “Discretionary” Spending Grows With Inflation.  Need not happen. It is an assumption.  Policymakers control that outcome 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 SUT 3.5% Wages 4.0% PIT 4.4% PIT = Personal Income Tax SUT = Sales and Use Tax Service Sector Drives Job Gains (000s) 11/15/2016 20 11.8 9.5 13

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-year

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QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf

were $74 million above estimate. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter. • Corporate net income tax revenues were $27 million below estimate due to lower-than- expected estimated payments. • Non-motor sales tax collections were $20 million below estimate. After a strong July, this revenue source displayed only modest growth in August and

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MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf

year. However, the comparison with the prior year is affected by one-time payments and timing issues. October 2014 inheritance tax revenues included a $100 million payment that did not recur this year. In addition, some personal income tax withholding collections associated with weekly and quarterly due dates that occurred in October 2014 were received in late September or

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

30 million of revenue relative to our recent forecast. (See attachment.) Most of the strength is in inheritance and non-tax revenues. We have some concerns regarding the recent weakness in sales tax, and we will monitor that tax source as we prepare to release our five-year budget projections in November. Related

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office | November 2019 1 Welcome Katherine Loughead | Tax Foundation  Modernizing PA Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner | Institute for Taxation & Economic Policy  Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development

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IFO ppt.pdf

Conference Profits Margins at Historical Highs $0.00 $0.04 $0.08 $0.12 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Pre-Tax Profit Per Dollar of Sales Census: Wholesalers, Retailers, Manufacturers, Mining January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 crisis. Recent French downgrade. German economy contracts in 2011 Q4. Forecast assumes crisis averted, minor recession instead. – Extension of payroll tax cut. Economic forecast assumes full year extension. – Automatic spending cuts for 2013. Economic forecast assumes that does not occur as

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Demographics Outlook 2020.pdf

2016. Primary responsibilities include leading the Department of Human Services performance-based budgeting reports, forecasting sales and use tax revenues, working on special projects regarding human services and demographics, and assisting in the coordination of department expenditures forecasts. Michaela Bowers, Revenue September 2018 and as a full-time staff member in December 2018. Primary responsibilities include forecasting personal income tax revenues and lottery proceeds along with other projects related to tax credit reviews, performance-based budgeting and demographics. Questions regarding this report

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx

1.59 2.00 2012-13 2.13 1.83 2.46 1.61 2.06 Notes: 1 Personal Income Tax index is rate adjusted for the 2004 rate increase. 2 Sales and Use Tax index prior to any transfers. FY 2010-11 adjusted to remove the impact of a change in payment methods. 3

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RB-2015-04.pdf

010, an increase of $5,930. However, those wage gains would be reduced by the employee’s share of payroll taxes (7.65 percent), which would reduce wage gains to $5,475. Under current law, wage gains may also be subject to the 3.07 percent state personal income tax, which would further reduce the gain to $5,295. Federal income tax may also apply, depending on the characteristics of

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QRE_FY15-16.xlsx

Projection Total General Fund $6,662.1 $6,570.8 $8,644.9 $8,843.8 $30,721.6 Total Tax Revenue 6,620.1 6,505.7 8,498.9 8,553.5 30,178.2 Total Corporation Taxes 660.3 733.0 2,547.8 1,066.0 5,007.1 Corporate Net Income 599.7 682.5

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QRE_FY15-16.pdf

Projection Total General Fund $6,662.1 $6,570.8 $8,644.9 $8,843.8 $30,721.6 Total Tax Revenue 6,620.1 6,505.7 8,498.9 8,553.5 30,178.2 Total Corporation Taxes 660.3 733.0 2,547.8 1,066.0 5,007.1 Corporate Net Income 599.7 682.5

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

Very long term: trends through 2040. Economic Implications o Labor Force, Income and Jobs Composition, Growth. Budget Implications o Persistent tax base erosion due to demographics. 12.June.2014 2 Today’s Presentation 12.June.2014 3 Broad Demographic Trends 2000 of Labor. +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income o Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security o Social Security income meant to be “supplemental.” o What impact from

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

higher than 2019. New IRS Data Reveal Impact of TCJA on PA Taxpayers The IRS released state-level data for tax year 2018 that reveal the significant impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania residents that filed a federal income tax return. Major provisions of

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MER-2014-02.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year‐over‐year

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

groceries, cars  But what impact from loss of $600 weekly FPUC payment? July revenues exceed expectation  Car sales tax breaks record | projected $2 billion shift largely captured August 19, 2020 1 Latest Real-Time PA Economic Data August 19 767 15,165 214 PIT - Other 4,612 above above 1,415 All Tobacco 1,008 967 41 All Other Tax 3,175 2,898 277 70 All Non-Tax 667 686 -20 25 Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. PIT

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

and (2) $82m in withholding transfers for FY 19-20 and $25m in transfers for FY 18-19. Personal Income Tax CY 2019 withholding strong ~4.3%  2019 Q2 notably strong ~+5.0%  Some deceleration since then | 2019 Q4 year  Natural gas royalties down due to prices January 28, 2020 9 PIT Payments Growth January 28, 2020 10 Tax Year Basis 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Quarterlies 16.1% -3.2% 11.5% -5.6% 10.9% Annuals

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2002_drop_report.pdf

alternatives may be elected for the DROP account balance: 1) Lump-sum distribution direct to the participant, paying the appropriate taxes; 2) Direct rollover into a tax qualified plan such as an IRA; 3) Conversion to a monthly benefit in order to enhance regular pension payments; or

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SR2017-06.pdf

assessment offices that resulted in responses from 50 counties and contributes to an understanding of the share of the property tax base that is comprised of homestead property. These data will be used to analyze proposals pertaining to property taxes in consideration of the recent passage of the constitutional amendment expanding the homestead exclusion. The purpose of the CCAP/IFO

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

9% Quarterly 1,821 10.9% 1,874 2.9% Annual 1,344 -3.6% 1,470 9.4% Other Tax Revenue 5,095 0.3% 4,960 -2.6% Non-Tax Revenue 658 -40.2% 578 -12.3% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Detail may not sum to total due to

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

earlier projections. The reductions are largely the result of updated economic assumptions, a lower estimate for small games of chance tax revenues and new information on the timing of potential casino licensing decisions. Relative to the Executive Budget published in February FY13-14 and $870 million lower for FY14-15, a two-year difference of $1,442 million. Corporate Net Income Tax – Revenues are expected to be flat in FY14-15. Lower tax liabilities from the expanded net operating loss deduction will

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

1% ‐0.3% ‐0.4% 0.3% Job Gains (000s) 44.9 44.4 46.3 57.4 Realty Transfer Tax 12.4% 20.4% 18.8% 13.5% Gasoline Prices ‐28.2% ‐28.0% ‐27.3% ‐18.0% Year‐ over‐year growth rates for respective quarters. The growth in wages and salaries is based on personal income tax withholding. The growth in consumer prices is based on the Philadelphia CPI‐U. May 13, 2016 3 Latest Annual PA

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

which will be remitted in April 2017. 1 This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

Protection to project CY 2015 collections. 1 The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quanti Ðies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Since 2012, Pennsylvania has imposed an annual impact fee on

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Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf

on the income tax retum. 5 Firm A therefore defers tax on the remaining $50,000 gain, but it also forgoes $50,000 of future depreciation deductions that would have been

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2020 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2019 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2019, the PUC reported

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2019 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Introduction Table 1: Impact Fee Revenue and Distributions 2015 2016

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2018 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Introduction Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2014 2015

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2017 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quanti Ðies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2016 I F R For CY 2016, impact fee revenues

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

2019, which will be remitted in April 2020. This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Table 1 displays the estimated CY 2019 collections with actual

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

opportunity set. • The indirect costs potentially incurred by state government and local school districts, including increased employer contributions and thus taxes, to fund either shortfalls in actual public pension plan earnings or reductions in earnings assumptions, or both. - 7 - PART II transferred to the retirement systems, they belong solely to the retirement systems’ members and - 24 - beneficiaries as required under federal tax law to maintain the tax-qualified treatment of the pension plan and to receive favorable tax treatment on the contributions

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Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf

Columbia do not allow NOL carrybacks. Eight states limit the amount that can be carried forward or back in any tax year. Tables presenting the treatment of NOLs for each state are enclosed. (Please refer to Tables A and B). As 0 Wisconsin 20/0 1 Nevada, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming do not levy a corporate net income tax. However, Ohio, Texas and Washington levy a gross receipts tax on business activities. Sources: Tax Foundation. Wolters Kluwer CCH IntelliConnect

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RTR-May 2012.pdf

7% 9,375.8 3.6% 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 28,112.5 3.0% Total Tax Revenue 1,841.1 7.3% 9,114.2 3.3% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 27,258.8 3.6% Total Corporation Taxes 81.3 -28.2% 2,942.0 -1.1% 3.0% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% 4,815.3

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RTR-Mar 2012.pdf

1% 7,935.2 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 27,872.3 3.5% Total Tax Revenue 4,011.7 1.9% 7,849.8 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 3.4% 27,043.6 4.8% Total Corporation Taxes 2,274.4 3.6% 2,434.6 3.0% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% -2.1% 4,926

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RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf

5% 8,097.7 -2.3% 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 27,678.0 0.7% Total Tax Revenue 2,663.5 -4.0% 7,766.0 1.4% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 27,148.6 2.6% Total Corporation Taxes 651.0 29.5% 1,318.7 2.9% 3.0% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% 4,963.8

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RTR-Feb 2012.pdf

3% 6,144.5 1.3% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 27,788.7 3.5% Total Tax Revenue 1,687.7 12.0% 6,093.4 1.9% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 3.4% 26,967.7 4.9% Total Corporation Taxes 64.1 -20.1% 620.0 -4.2% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% -2.1% 4,846.7 2

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RTR-Apr 2012.pdf

7% 9,186.2 4.3% 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 27,994.3 2.5% Total Tax Revenue 3,261.4 2.8% 8,960.8 4.0% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 27,133.8 3.5% Total Corporation Taxes 586.3 -11.9% 2,924.8 -0.5% 3.0% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% 4,847.2

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf

2% 6,160.6 0.6% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 27,615.8 3.0% Total Tax Revenue 2,150.4 -3.2% 6,118.7 1.2% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 3.4% 26,786.7 4.3% Total Corporation Taxes 96.1 6.8% 595.4 -3.2% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% -2.1% 4,862.8 3

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

Points Raised by Advocates:  Alleviates poverty.  Greater job satisfaction.  Less turnover.  Expands the economy and generates tax revenues.  Reduces expenditures on healthcare programs (Medicaid). Raised by Opponents:  They are "starter" wages paid to inexperienced workers Assume 65% is Passed Forward 0.4% 2.7% 0.9% Note: Increase in Total Costs also includes higher payroll taxes. Adjustment for consumer response assumes a price elasticity of demand equal to -0.5. Assumes constant profit margin. Source: "Analysis

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

Share of Spending for Age 65+ 2005-06 2014-15 Change Housing 37.3% 40.6% +3.3% Mortgage-Rent-Tax 21.4% 24.5% +3.1% Utilities-Other 15.9% 16.1% +0.2% Transportation 15.8% 14.9% -0 Funding Trends  Revenue outlook is modest.  Partly due to maturation of economy.  Also due to long-term tax base erosion.  Strong growth in demand for government programs and services.  Price pressures that exceed normal inflation. 

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MER-2014-12.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2014-03.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year‐over‐year

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MER-2014-01.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year‐over‐year

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MER-2013-12.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-year

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MER-2013-11.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

on latest three months of data. Data are from the US Department of Labor - Survey of Establish- ments. Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-year growth

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

for FY15-16, a two-year increase of $461 million. Highlights of the FY15-16 forecast include: Corporate Net Income Tax – Revenues are projected to register a small decline based on weakness in estimated payments for March and June, the first two quarterly payments for calendar year 2015 filers. Sales and Use Tax – The forecast projects moderate increases in consumer spending, but low inflation may restrain the overall growth rate of collections. Motor

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf

a previous letter transmitted by the office regarding estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. 1 Your updated request specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant 35,000 and $50,000.  Expand the supplemental rebates given to senior homeowners who meet certain income and property tax burden requirements. Specifically, the proposal would increase the household income limit for a supplemental rebate from $30,000 to $50

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

of Fiscal Year November 18, 2020 7 Mitigation Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul to Oct Notes General Fund Tax -9.2% 0.4% year-over-year growth rate Corporate Net Income -12.3% -5.2% much better than expected Cigarette -39.2% 8.6% processing issues Inheritance 5.9% -11.7% Realty Transfer -30.9% 6.2% All Other Tax -7.7% 2.0% Note: Growth rates control for revenue shifts for tax relief and miscellaneous one-time transfers. Excludes

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

Activity 9: Administration ................................................................................................... 27 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 29 Number of Licensees by Board and Position .....................................................................29 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................35 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology | Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

the sixth consecutive year. These factors produced stronger-than-anticipated revenues for wage, sales, business, property, and real estate transfer taxes. The report also discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for 2017 The U discusses the Federal Reserve’s plan of action moving forward based on the report. IRS Releases Preliminary U.S. Income Tax Data for 2016 For most states, income tax revenues came in far below projections for FY 2016-17, leading to

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MER-2014-07.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

on the model that CBO uses to make long-term projections  An appendix about the effects of the 2017 tax act on the economy and budget  A primer about how CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs Explaining containing the following information:  Historical data  Spending projections by budget account  Revenue projections by category, along with tax parameters and effective marginal tax rates  10-year projections of economic output, prices, labor market measures, interest rates, income

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Five_Year_Outlook_2018_Presentation.pdf

24 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 2018 Welcome Dr. Kent Smetters | UPenn Wharton Budget Model  Faculty Director  Impact of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 Dr. Jeffrey Kling | Congressional Budget Office  Associate Director  Increasing CBO transparency Matthew Expenditures: one-time measures dominate November 15, 2018 5 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax revenues very strong (much is permanent). Corporate net income gains (temporary, old tax years). IFO adds +$300 million to official

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

standard deviation” •For U.S. as a whole, today, that’s about $425 billion. About 27% of all state-local taxes, up from 7.6% in 1995, 2.7% in 1985 •Even if amortized slowly* it is a lot: •increased contributions risk) for a portfolio with 8% expected return (Standard Deviation) One standard- deviation risk, (billions of 2016 $) State & local government taxes, (billions of 2016 $) One standard- deviation risk, as % of taxes (A) (B) (C = A x B) (D) (E = C ÷ D

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

Cons. 250,921 Corrections - Criminal Justice Manufacturing Fund 104,616 Drug and Alcohol Substance Abuse Education 8,300 Education Property Tax Relief 766,200 State School Fund 0 Environmental Protection Coal Lands Improvement 175 Conservation District 8,701 Environmental Education 1 465 73,588 204,032 Difference 8,361 16,896 2,026 16,489 17,953 -115,919 Fire Insurance Tax Fund Receipts 84,093 81,159 80,922 75,885 68,497 68,497 Disbursements 88,100 84,311 81

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RB-2019-01.pdf

which will be remitted in April 2019. 1 This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

us). “The report provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can use to assess the fiscal sustainability of current tax and spending policies,” Knittel said. The report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth major findings include:  The Pennsylvania economy will continue to expand, but at a lackluster pace. Demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth. There are important downside risks associated with global economic weakness and the uncertainties of

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

19 Revenues Strong Thru October November 19, 2018 9 Gain Thru October Notes Corporate Net Income +$96 profit shifting, older tax years Sales - Non-Motor +$67 very strong growth +8.7% Sales - Motor Vehicle +$30 strong growth Personal Income -$8 statewide IFO official estimate Note: millions of dollars. Gains are relative to IFO official estimate released in June 2018. Sales-Use Tax Collection on Internet Sales November 19, 2018 10 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

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PEW_Presentation(Video).pptx

How States Are Improving Tax Incentives for Jobs and Growth A national assessment of evaluation practices Chaaron Pearson cpearson@pewtrusts.org The Pew Charitable Trusts 11/16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per

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PEW_Presentation(Video).ppsx

How States Are Improving Tax Incentives for Jobs and Growth A national assessment of evaluation practices Chaaron Pearson cpearson@pewtrusts.org The Pew Charitable Trusts 11/16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

Small Business Opportunities ......................................... 33 Activity 11: Metrology ........................................................................................................ 37 Activity 12: Administration ................................................................................................. 39 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 41 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................41 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology | Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

which will be remitted in April 2018. 1 This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND States Pay $30 Billion per Year on Targeted Tax Breaks A recent article in the Wall Street Journal discusses the benefits of targeted business tax incentives offered by state and local governments. A study conducted by economists at Columbia Business School and Princeton University found

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

four calendar years were as follows: 2.1% (2015), 2.5% (2016), 2.3% (2017) and 3.0% (2018). IRS Tax Refunds Down but Average Refund Up Slightly On March 15, the IRS released the latest tax refund statistics for the 2019 filing season. Through March 9, the data show that the number (-3.3%) and dollar

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

sources suggest that the Pennsylvania economy recorded robust growth for the third quarter of 2018. Based on non-motor sales tax collections, taxable consumer and business spending increased 8.3% compared to the prior year. The comparable figure for motor vehicle sales tax was 9.9%. The preliminary annual rate of net payroll job creation for the quarter was 68,000, compared to

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MER-2015-04.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

half. Through December, revenues are $65 million below the IFO estimate. Revenues have been characterized by weak nonmotor vehicle sales tax receipts and lackluster personal income tax remittances from wage and salary withholding. The table below displays first half growth rates for the General Fund and its

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

undergoing dramatic transformation.  Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade.  Subtle impacts on economic growth and tax revenues.  Difficult to quantify. Must view long-term trends.  Key factor: Baby Boomers and their characteristics:  Sheer 4 Share PA Population Age 65+ 15.4% 17.0% 19.0% 21.4% 23.0% Approximate Share of State Taxes Paid by Age 65+ Personal Income 15% to 18% Sales and Use 20% to 24% Property (homeowners) 29% to 34%

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Supplemental_Table.pdf

2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 Total General Fund $34,780 $33,914 $34,752 $33,972 $28 -$58 Total Tax Revenue 31,922 33,180 32,158 33,361 -237 -181 Corporate Net Income 2,991 3,318 3,010 903 13,400 14,127 -100 -224 Inheritance 1,009 1,022 1,013 1,062 -3 -40 All Other Tax 1,911 1,929 1,869 1,903 42 26 Total Non-Tax 2,859 734 2,594 611 265

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

gains, which will accrue disproportionately to high income households. From 2012 to 2018, total reported capital gains on federal income tax returns increased by roughly 56 percent, or 7.7 percent per annum during the six- year time period, which is much higher than the growth rate of other income sources. Federal tax data reveal that approximately 85 percent of capital gains are reported by taxpayers that would be included in the upper

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

projects that: o have a regional or multi-jurisdictional impact; o generate substantial increases or maintain current levels of employment, tax revenues or other measures of economic activity; o do not obtain primary funding through other state programs; and o have cultural, historic, recreational or civic significance.  Grants must be eligible for tax-exempt bond funding under federal law.  Total cost of the project must be at least $1,000,000. 

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Public_Data-Motor_License_Fund.xlsx

Fiscal Year SUMMARY | DETAIL - LIQUID FUELS TAXES | DETAIL - LICENSES AND FEES | DETAIL - OTHER MOTOR RECEIPTS (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) | (dollar amounts in millions) Fiscal Year Total Motor License Fund Total of Liquid Fuels Taxes Total of Licenses and Fees Total of Other Motor Receipts | Liquid Fuels Fuel Use Motor Carriers/ IFTA Alternative Fuels Oil

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

27 Activity 7: OSFC Training and Certification ................................................................ 31 Activity 8: Administration ......................................................................................... 33 Appendix ................................................................................................................ 35 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .............................. 35 Additional PEMA Grants ........................................................................................ 36 Agency Response ................................................................................................. 37 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology | Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

Medical Services ...................................................... 35 Activity 12: State Laboratory .............................................................................................. 37 Activity 13: Administration ................................................................................................. 39 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 41 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................41 Agency Response...........................................................................................................42 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology | Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

workers with a Bachelor’s degree or less were relatively small when compared to workers with advanced degrees. New Federal Tax Data Reflect Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act The IRS released tax filing statistics for 2018 federal returns filed through July 2019. The total

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

underlying data show strong growth in U.S. exports and equipment investment by businesses. U.S. Capital Gains Surged in Tax Year 2017 On June 26, the IRS released preliminary data for federal income tax returns filed for tax year 2017. The data show that capital gains increased by 41.4% across all filers. For

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

led by gains in consumer spending for clothing and restaurants. (The retail data exclude spend- ing on services.) Recent sales tax data from Pennsylvania also suggest strong consumer spending. For May to July, sales tax collections increased by 7.5% from the same time period in the prior year. That pace reflects the strongest 3-

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mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf

savings are expected to translate to higher consumer spending on goods and services, netting an additional $60 million in sales tax collections.” Knittel cautioned that reductions in the estimates for other revenue sources offset some of the gains from the improved payments for 2013. Sales and Use 160 Lower gasoline prices and stronger consumer confidence. Inheritance 100 Large one-time inheritance tax payment. Other 30 Mainly related to the NIZ and CRIZ programs. ------ Subtotal – Increases 520 Decreases Non-Tax Revenue -160 No

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MER-2015-06.pdf

000s) Average year-over-year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2015-03.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2015-02.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2015-01.pdf

000s) Average year-over-year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2014-11.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2014-10.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2014-09.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2014-08.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2014-06.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2014-05.pdf

000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of nonmotor and motor vehicle taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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MER-2014-04.pdf

Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of nonmotor and motor vehicle taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

Non-Withholding 2,920 3,219 298 10.2% All Tobacco 1,077 1,025 -52 -4.8% All Other Tax 2,453 2,536 82 3.4% All Non-Tax 2,456 769 -1,687 -68.7% Note: Millions of dollars. PIT is personal income tax. The Pennsylvania Labor Market

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

for Class DC members and DC-only participants in SERS.  Voluntary participant contributions could be made on an after-tax basis, subject to applicable Federal limitations, or via an eligible roll-over or direct trustee-to-trustee Exhibit I Page  DC plan mandatory participant contributions would be 2.75% of pay. Mandatory participant contributions are intended to be pre-tax “pickup” contributions.  The DC plan employer contribution would be 2.25% of pay.  Participant contributions to the DC

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Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on August 16, 2019. 1 The new request provides a proposed rebate for school district property taxes paid up to $5,000 for homeowners age 65 or older with household incomes of $60,000 or less. Using for 2017 and grow to $1.09 billion by 2019. As before, senior homeowner rebates used for the current Property Tax Rent Rebate Program could be deducted from that gross amount to derive a net cost (roughly $970 million). Based on

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT.pdf

LIHEAP Eligibility and Benefits........................................................................... 45 Activity 14: Other Program Eligibility/Benefits ...................................................................... 49 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 51 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................51 Agency Response...........................................................................................................52 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology | Page 3 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

Energy Programs ............................................................................................. 41 Activity 16: Laboratory Services.......................................................................................... 43 Activity 17: Administration ................................................................................................. 45 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 47 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................47 Agency Response...........................................................................................................48 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology | Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

27 Activity 6: School Safety and Security ................................................................................. 31 Activity 7: Administration ................................................................................................... 33 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 35 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................35 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology | Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

Support Services (Addendum) ............................... 13 Activity 2: Juvenile Justice System Enhancement Strategy .......................................... 15 Appendix ................................................................................................................. 19 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .............................. 19 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology | Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

Examinations .............................................. 15 Activity 4: Education and Outreach ..................................................................................... 17 Activity 5: Administration ................................................................................................... 21 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 23 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................23 Agency Response...........................................................................................................24 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology | Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

Parole Supervision ........................................................................................... 35 Activity 12: Victim Services ................................................................................................ 39 Activity 13: Administration ................................................................................................. 41 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 45 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................45 Agency Response...........................................................................................................46 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology | Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under

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PBB-Tax-Credits-Schedule-2019-05.pdf

Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule Year Performance-Based Budgets 1 Corrections Board of Probation and Parole PA Commission on Crime & Delinquency Juvenile Labor and Industry 5 Drug and Alcohol Programs Insurance Revenue Executive Offices Environmental Hearing Board Conservation and Natural Resources Year Tax Credits 1 Film Production New Jobs Historic Preservation Incentive 2 Research and Development Keystone Innovation Zones Mobile Telecom and Broadband

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdf

Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Senator Browne 10:05am - 10:15am Overview of Tax Credit Reviews - Independent Fiscal Office Matt Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 10:15am - 11:30am Review of Tax Credits (Film Production, New Jobs & Historical Preservation Incentive) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department of Revenue Scott Dunkelberger

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PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdf

Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Senator Browne 10:05am - 10:15am Overview of Tax Credit Reviews - Independent Fiscal Office Matt Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 10:15am - 12:00pm Review of Tax Credits (Film Production, New Jobs & Historical Preservation Incentive) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department of Revenue Scott Dunkelberger

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

Excluding energy, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased by 1.9% from the prior year. - April 2019- National News Federal Income Tax Refunds Remain Below Prior Year On a weekly basis, the IRS releases the latest data regarding federal income tax refunds processed and paid. Through April 12, total IRS refunds processed were down 1.9% compared to the same time

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

to continue operations. For FY 2019-20, the primary driver of this outcome is the projected reduction in earned income tax revenues, with an estimated shortfall of $526 million. Other revenue sources including amusement tax (-25%), parking revenue (-20%) and business tax (-20%) are projected to record the largest percentage declines. Across the six regions

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

14 to 2018-19, provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can use to assess the sustainability of current tax and spending policies. It is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report finds five year projections.  The Pennsylvania economy will expand, but at a moderate pace. Long-term demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth.  The number of working-aged residents between ages 20 and 64 will remain

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2020 PBB Agenda.pdf

am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Senator Vincent J. Hughes, PBB Chairman 9:35 am – 9:45 am Overview of Tax Credit Reviews and Review of Process Changes from Year 1 to Year 2 – Independent Fiscal Office Matt Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 9:45 am – 11:00 am Review of Tax Credits (Research & Development, Keystone Innovation Zones, Mobile Telecom & Broadband, Organ & Bone Marrow) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department

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WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf

Other, $63, 7% July 14, 2020 4 Note: Dollars in millions. Other category includes Judicial Services, Social Services, Information Technology, Tax Reductions, Water Preservation and Reclamation, Housing, Planning Initiatives, and Career and Technical Centers. Source: PUC. Southwest County Disbursements July 14 of decline.  Quarterly production growth has been decelerating for the last 5 quarters. Other Implications  State liquid fuels taxes down in FY19-20, projected to decline further in FY20-21.  IFO to release report estimating local revenue losses

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

above receipts in the prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO’s official estimate occurs before June sales tax remittances and the quarterly estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is based on collections through May and the IFO’s

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

6.8 percent) from the prior year. “The two largest General Fund revenue sources, sales and use and personal income taxes, are meeting or slightly exceeding expectations,” Knittel noted. “The upward revision in the estimate is largely because of unexpected revenue from the corporate net income tax and unclaimed property.” FY 2015-16 unrestricted General Fund revenues are projected to be $30.72 billion, an increase of

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

below receipts in the prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO’s official estimate occurs before June sales tax remittances and the quarterly estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is based on collections through May and the IFO’s

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

Recent Revenue and Economic Trends IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus - April 17, 2019 Growth Rate General Fund Tax Revenues 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Non-Motor Sales (base, see S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth Rates: PIT Withholding and Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, April 17, 2019. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

directs the IFO to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for each agency under the Governor’s jurisdiction and conduct tax credit reviews every fifth year  The IFO and Budget Secretary jointly develop the schedule for PBB plans and tax credit reviews  Year 1 agencies include: Corrections Board of Probation and Parole PA Commission on Crime and Delinquency Juvenile

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Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

Recent Revenue and Economic Trends Growth Rate or Change General Fund Tax Revenues (YOY) 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Non-Motor SUT (base)1.8% 2.4% 2.9% IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, October 9, 2018. Growth Rates: PIT Withholding and Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, October 9, 2018. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4

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novak ppt.pdf

Office January 18, 2012 Jason Novak Research and Policy Support Manager Half Empty or Half Full? • Increased economic activity equals tax revenue increases if and only if the tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further employment and spending cuts Gross Domestic Product Pennsylvania * 4-quarter growth

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

excluded, then the profits growth rate increases to 5.8%. (See Table 6.16D.) Due to the federal corporate income tax cut, after-tax profits re- tained by corporations increased by 35.8% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis. IFO

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Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf

1) a modest reduction in the projected cost savings, (2) an increase in federal funds derived from the gross receipts tax mechanism and (3) the reformatting of tables to provide separate totals with and without additional federal funds associated with the gross receipts tax. The final change reflects the uncertainty regarding those additional federal funds. Please refer to the note at the front of

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jackson ppt.pdf

Scenario: Double-Dip Recession (30%) • Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis leads to a global credit crunch. • Policymakers allow the payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment insurance benefits to expire in March 2012. • Consumers retrench as asset values and real incomes erode The Federal Reserve’s powers to support growth are limited. • Fiscal tightening is coming, but the big issues (entitlements and taxes) will not be settled until after the 2012 elections. • Pent-up demand for housing will eventually lead to stronger economic

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

from the prior year. “The three largest General Fund revenue sources, corporate net income, sales and use and personal income taxes, are underperforming in FY 2016-17,” Knittel noted. “The downward revision in the estimate is largely attributable to a decline in corporate profits and weak consumer spending. Income shifting from 2016 to 2017 in anticipation of lower federal tax rates may have contributed to the weak collections.” FY 2017-18 unrestricted General Fund revenues are projected to be $32

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Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

of the expenditure growth in the near term. However, the annual growth begins to moderate after FY 2016-17. • Slow tax base erosion and “normal” expenditure growth become the primary drivers of the structural imbalance. Net revenues are projected to increase 20-64) and an increase of 2.8 percent per annum in the 65+ cohort. These demographic trends will restrain tax revenues and increase expenditures due to the rise in the service population. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal

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2019-Pub-2.pdf

next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Katherine Loughead, Tax Foundation: Modernizing Pennsylvania's Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy: Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development

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Pensions

No. 205, as amended, 53 P.S. Section 895.101, et seq. (Act 205 of 1984) . • Foreign Casualty Insurance Premiums Tax Distribution Act, act of May 12, 1943, P.L. 259, No. 120, as amended, 72 P.S. Sections 2263.1-2263.3. • Tax Reform Code, Act of March 4, 1971, P.L. 6, No. 2, art. IX, § 902, as amended, 72 P.S

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Pensions

Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) into compliance with the following Federal laws: 1) the Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008 ("HEART Act"); 2) the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act of 1994 ("USERRA"); and 3) Internal System (SERS) Codes to bring SERS into compliance with the following Federal laws: 1) the Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008 (HEART Act); 2) the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act of 1994 (USERRA); and 3) Internal

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Pensions

and made technical amendments to the plan intended to ensure that the Allegheny County Employees' Retirement System is maintained as tax qualified under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986. Legislative Session 2011 - 2012 Act 2012 - 43 (House Bill Number 1702, Printer applicable to municipal pension systems; and 5) provide special remedies applicable to the cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, including special taxing provisions. Act 2009 - 51 (Senate Bill Number 369, Printer's Number 1478). Signed into law on October 9, 2009, Act

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Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf

4%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf

2%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf

7%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and 1 The agreement between the Commonwealth and the PFBC is only a one-year contract. 2 workers’ compensation payments

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Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf

7%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf

0%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf

9%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

1%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

reduction in natural gas royalty payments due to lower prices likely had a significant impact on income growth. For 2015, tax data suggest that natural gas royalty income may have comprised between 10 to 15 percent of state taxable income in

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PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

8%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

0%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

potential imbalance falls to $1.58 billion in FY 2023-24 based on current policies. A new sales and use tax transfer to the Public Transportation Trust Fund beginning in FY 2022- 23 reduces revenue by approximately $500 million annually and

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort will (1) restrain tax revenues due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other

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PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

3%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

9%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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PBB-Board-Hearings-Schedule-2019.pdf

00 A.M. - 11:30 A.M. Hearing Room 1- NOB meetings rescheduled Hearing Room 1- NOB Department of Corrections Tax Credit Reviews: Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Film Production, New Jobs, Historic Parole Preservation Incentive Juvenile Court Judges' Commission 11

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OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

8%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

and then level off thereafter. The CBO also revised its projection for real GDP to reflect recent changes in federal tax policy. (Full Report) Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this winter

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MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf

6%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

6%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf

needs of rapidly expanding retiree and elderly populations. The contraction of the working-age cohort suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase in demand for healthcare and other

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

an estimated breakdown of the IFO reviewed wage contracts by department. Please see the attached table. Representative Brown requested property tax burden by county. This project has been undertaken by the IFO as a Research Brief and will be released as

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FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

3%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort (14.7 percent through 2020) will (1) restrain tax revenues due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

32.2 percent in the 65+ cohort through 2025. The increase in this cohort will (1) restrain the growth of tax revenues (personal income and sales) due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2

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CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

1%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

4%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

3%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

variety of reasons including: the mix and weighting of the included items, the failure to include federal and state income taxes, the failure to consider changes in the quality of goods and services over time, and the failure to adequately respond

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Links

of the Governor State Budget News • Pew Center for States • Rockefeller Institute of Government • Governing: States and Localities • Federation of Tax Administrators • National Conference of State Legislatures • National Association of State Budget Officers Federal Government • Board of Governors, Federal Reserve • Congressional

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