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State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, CCH AnswerConnect and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the level of per capita state and local taxes across states (unadjusted and adjusted for price differentials) and (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property). Tags: comparison, state, tax
Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic This research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19. Tags: brief, cigarette, research, tax
Summary of Tax Credit Reviews New IFO report highlights findings from the 20 tax credit reviews published during the first five-year evaluation cycle (2019 to 2023). Tags: credit, review, summary, tax
Property Tax Burden By County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2021. Tags: county, property, tax
Property Tax/Rent Rebate Expansion This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, the American Community Survey and Social Security Administration to estimate the impact of the recently enacted expansion of the PTRR program. It provides detail on impact by income level, claimant type and county. Tags: property, rebate, rent, tax
State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. Tags: comparison, local, state, tax
2023 Tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Manufacturing, Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credit Reviews. Tags: credit, tax
Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
Manufacturing Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Manufacturing Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit Report. The report was amended on February 17, 2023 to include updates to Table 3.1 on page 14. Following publication of the RJITC report, the IFO became aware of a data discrepancy contained within a referenced study. As a result, the RJITC report was updated to exclude references to the “Evaluation of Alabama’s Entertainment Industry Incentive Program and New Markets Development Program” on February 23, 2023. Tags: credit, tax
Waterfront Development Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Waterfront Development Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROI Michaela Miller gave a brief presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The REAP tax credit was used as a case study. Tags: incentives, roi, tax
Property Tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. Tags: county, property, tax
School District Property Tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. Tags: property, school, tax
Pennsylvania's Gasoline Tax The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285. Tags: brief, gasoline, research, tax
Property Tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. Tags: legislative, property, request, tax
Property Tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides updated estimates for potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated. Tags: legislative, property, request, tax
Tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Mixed-Use Development, Brewers’, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation and Educational Tax Credit Reviews. Tags: credit, tax
Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
Brewers' Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Brewers’ Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
Educational Tax Credits Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Educational Tax Credits Report. Tags: credit, tax
Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
STATE AND LOCAL TAX REVENUES: A 50 STATE COMPARISON This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. Tags: comparison, local, state, tax
Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's updated forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2020-21 to FY 2025-26. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019-20 current-year property tax collections, (2) the impact from FY 2021-22 millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 Index projection. Tags: property, tax
PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ Tax Credit Report Presentation The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based Budget Board. Tags: based, budget, credit, performance, tax
Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
Property Tax Update Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation on property taxes to the House Majority Policy Committee. Tags: presentation, property, tax
Property Tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. Tags: property, tax
NAP, REAP, EEEP, VGP and KSDZ Tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Reviews. Tags: credit, eeep, ksdz, nap, reap, review, tax, vgp
Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit Report. IFO Letter to the SCC Tags: credit, tax
Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
Video Game Production Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Video Game Production Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
School District Property Tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.) Tags: property, tax
PPP Loans to Pennsylvania Businesses This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. Tags: businesses, employment, ppp, tax
State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. Tags: comparison, local, state, tax
Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax
Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately. Tags: federal, income, taxes, tcja
Property Tax by County and Income This research brief uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey to provide Pennsylvania property tax data for 2018 by county, household income and homeowner age. Tags: property, tax
State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. Tags: comparison, local, state, tax
Film Production Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Film Production Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, tax
Film, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credit Reviews. Tags: credit, film, historic, jobs, preservation, review, tax
New Jobs Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the New Jobs Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, jobs, tax
Historic Preservation Tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Historic Preservation Tax Credit Report. Tags: credit, historic, preservation, tax
2022 Property tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens on homeowners and renters across the state for 2022. The brief was updated on September 6, 2024 to address a technical correction. 08/21/2024
Corporate Rate Reduction and Higher NOL Cap This research brief examines two recent provisions that reduce corporate net income tax liability: a lower tax rate and a higher net operating loss (NOL) deduction threshold. The provisions significantly reduce corporate tax liability and will be phased-in through tax year 2031. 07/17/2024
Stadium Economic Impact Report: Philadelphia Phillies The IFO performed an analysis that measured the 2023 economic footprint attributable to the Philadelphia Phillies’ Major League Baseball (MLB) operations at Citizens Bank Park. The analysis finds that economic activity related to team operations and fan spending generated $970 million in statewide spending, supported 5,400 full-time equivalent jobs, and $45 million in state taxes. Press Release 07/10/2024
Stadium Economic Impact Report: Pittsburgh Pirates The IFO performed an analysis that measured the 2023 economic footprint attributable to the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Major League Baseball (MLB) operations at PNC Park. The analysis finds that economic activity related to team operations and fan spending generated $546 million in statewide spending, supported 3,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and $22 million in state taxes. Press Release 07/10/2024
Sources of Pennsylvania Income This research brief is the first in a series that describes a new distribution model that will be used to examine the progressivity/regressivity of state-local taxes. 06/27/2024
School District Property tax Forecast The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report projects revenues and the Act 1 index through FY 2025-26 and provides an overview of recent trends in school district funding. 06/19/2024
Sports, Marketing & Tourism Series: 2023 Ironman PA Happy Valley Triathlon The IFO published an economic impact report for the Ironman 70.3 Pennsylvania Happy Valley Triathlon in Centre County (July 2023). The analysis finds that economic activity related to the event generated over $4.7 million in statewide spending, supported 30 full-time equivalent jobs, and $238,000 in select state and local taxes. 04/04/2024
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget released February 2024. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 03/28/2024
Senate Budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to requests for additional information raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The requests relate to an adjusted financial statement, public assistance savings resulting from a higher minimum wage, impact of the Ohio rate structure on Pennsylvania tax liability, net migration for Pennsylvania, regional student loan debt comparison and U3 and U6 unemployment rates. 03/06/2024
tax Modernization and Reform Presentation Director Knittel made a presentation to the House Finance Subcommittee on tax Modernization and Reform. Based on a request from Chair Rabb, the presentation was updated to add an additional slide that displays the income distribution for self-employment and S corporation/partnership income. 03/01/2024
State and Local tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, CCH AnswerConnect and the tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the level of per capita state and local taxes across states (unadjusted and adjusted for price differentials) and (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property). 02/14/2024
tax Credits and Economic Development Incentives This report presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2023-24 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The report also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. 01/09/2024
Cigarette tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic This research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19. 12/11/2023
Summary of tax Credit Reviews New IFO report highlights findings from the 20 tax credit reviews published during the first five-year evaluation cycle (2019 to 2023). 10/10/2023
Economic and Revenue Impact of Student Loan Moratorium Director Knittel gave a presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and tax Research Conference on the economic and revenue impact of the student loan moratorium. 10/03/2023
Property tax Burden By County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2021. 08/22/2023
Property tax/Rent Rebate Expansion This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, the American Community Survey and Social Security Administration to estimate the impact of the recently enacted expansion of the PTRR program. It provides detail on impact by income level, claimant type and county. 08/09/2023
Corporate Net Income tax TY 2019 This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) return data from tax year 2019 based on tax liability, apportionment factor and NAICS code. 07/25/2023
School District Property tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2027-28, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 06/28/2023
Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends As part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million. 06/12/2023
PA taxpayers Continue to Migrate South The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion. 05/03/2023
Analysis of Revenue Proposals This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2023-24 Executive Budget released March 2023. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 05/03/2023
Property tax Rebates for Senior Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposal to provide property tax rebates for senior homeowners in certain income ranges. 04/13/2023
Senate Budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to net migration for Pennsylvania, U3 and U6 unemployment rates, tax burden and labor force participation rates for Pennsylvania and border states, Pennsylvania’s declining workforce and the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement tax Credit. 04/05/2023
Impact of Proposed Changes to the NOL Cap The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Senator Pennycuick. The letter contains projections for the impact of proposed changes to the amount of taxable income that C corporations may offset through net operating loss deductions. 02/24/2023
State and Local tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 02/21/2023
Analysis of Proposed Changes to State Motor Fuel taxes The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Chairman Grove for a static and dynamic analysis of proposed changes to state motor fuel taxes. The proposal would reduce those taxes and replace lost revenues with motor vehicle sales and use taxes. 01/26/2023
2023 tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Manufacturing, Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development tax Credit Reviews. 01/10/2023
Resource Manufacturing tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Manufacturing tax Credit Report. 01/05/2023
Manufacturing tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Manufacturing tax Credit Report. 01/05/2023
Rural Jobs and Investment tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Rural Jobs and Investment tax Credit Report. The report was amended on February 17, 2023 to include updates to Table 3.1 on page 14. Following publication of the RJITC report, the IFO became aware of a data discrepancy contained within a referenced study. As a result, the RJITC report was updated to exclude references to the “Evaluation of Alabama’s Entertainment Industry Incentive Program and New Markets Development Program” on February 23, 2023. 01/05/2023
Post-Pandemic Gasoline Consumption The IFO published a research brief on the decline in Pennsylvania gasoline consumption resulting from recent trends in remote working and higher gasoline prices. Reduced consumption means less funding for road and bridge construction, as gasoline taxes fund 55% of those projects. 01/05/2023
Waterfront Development tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Waterfront Development tax Credit Report. 01/05/2023
December 2022 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.04 billion in General Fund revenue for December, an increase of $195.9 million (5.1%) compared to December 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the shift of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December. 01/03/2023
Unemployment Compensation by AGI The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds. 12/21/2022
tax Credits and Economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. This research brief was reposted on December 21 to correct a text error on page 1. 12/15/2022
NOVEMBER 2022 REVENUE UPDATE The Commonwealth collected $2.75 billion in General Fund revenue for November, a decrease of $3.87 billion (-58.4%) compared to November 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the delay of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December. 12/01/2022
Evaluating the Effectiveness of tax Incentives Without ROI Michaela Miller gave a brief presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and tax Research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The REAP tax credit was used as a case study. 10/26/2022
Property tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 09/06/2022
School District Property tax Update The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 08/15/2022
Pennsylvania's Gasoline tax The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285. 06/13/2022
PA Residents Migrating to Southern States The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older. 06/02/2022
Property tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. 05/19/2022
Property tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides updated estimates for potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated. 04/15/2022
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2022-23 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/08/2022
Senate Budget Hearing Request The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to two questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to an update of the IFO’s five-year projections for revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget and an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors. 03/21/2022
Corporate Net Income tax Proposals The IFO responded to a request from Appropriations Committee Chairman Saylor for a dynamic revenue estimate of three corporate net income tax proposals. 03/15/2022
Act 25 of 2011 Analysis In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates the potential reduction in property taxes due to Act 25 of 2011. 02/16/2022
tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Mixed-Use Development, Brewers’, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation and Educational tax Credit Reviews. 01/24/2022
Mixed-Use Development tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mixed-Use Development tax Credit Report. 01/20/2022
Brewers' tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Brewers’ tax Credit Report. 01/20/2022
Educational tax Credits Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Educational tax Credits Report. 01/20/2022
Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation tax Credit Report. 01/20/2022
STATE AND LOCAL tax REVENUES: A 50 STATE COMPARISON This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 01/19/2022
Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. 11/29/2021
Economic Outlook and Property tax Update Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook and School District Property tax Forecast. 11/16/2021
School District Property tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's updated forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2020-21 to FY 2025-26. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019-20 current-year property tax collections, (2) the impact from FY 2021-22 millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 Index projection. 11/08/2021
PBB Addendums and Updated KSDZ tax Credit Report Presentation The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ tax Credit report to the Performance Based Budget Board. 09/28/2021
Keystone Special Development Zone tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Special Development Zone tax Credit Report. 09/24/2021
Property tax Update Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation on property taxes to the House Majority Policy Committee. 08/30/2021
Property tax Burden by County This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 08/25/2021
Performance-Based Budget Board Hearing Request The IFO responded to a question raised during the Performance-Based Budget Board hearing on April 26, 2021 by providing Neighborhood Assistance Program and the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program tax Credit awards by region or county. 05/04/2021
NAP, REAP, EEEP, VGP and KSDZ tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone tax Credit Reviews. 04/26/2021
Resource Enhancement and Protection Program tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program tax Credit Report. IFO Letter to the SCC 04/23/2021
School Property tax, Senior Spending and tax Revenues In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups. 04/23/2021
Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program tax Credit Report. 04/23/2021
Neighborhood Assistance Program tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Neighborhood Assistance Program tax Credit Report. 04/23/2021
Video Game Production tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Video Game Production tax Credit Report. 04/23/2021
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2021-22 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 04/22/2021
Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its scheduled budget hearings. This packet examines the minimum wage, personal and corporate income tax and other proposals included in the FY 2021-22 Executive Budget. 03/04/2021
School District Property tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.) 02/24/2021
PPP Loans to Pennsylvania Businesses This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. 12/08/2020
State and Local tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 11/24/2020
Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. 10/15/2020
Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania taxpayers This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately. 10/13/2020
August 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 09/01/2020
July 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 08/03/2020
COVID-19 Impact on Local Revenues In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office examined how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year. 07/16/2020
June 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. 07/01/2020
April 2020 Revenue Update The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates. 05/01/2020
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/23/2020
Property tax by County and Income This research brief uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey to provide Pennsylvania property tax data for 2018 by county, household income and homeowner age. 04/07/2020
Property tax Update Presentation Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association on property tax data recently published by the IFO. 03/13/2020
School District Property tax Forecast This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25. 02/06/2020
State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 01/29/2020
Testimony on Combined Reporting Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony to the Senate Democratic Policy Committee regarding the potential impact of combined reporting on corporate net income tax revenues. 01/29/2020
OBMD, MTBI, R&D, and KIZ tax Credit Reviews and PBB Overview for DCED, DOH and DHS IFO presentation of Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, Research and Development and Keystone Innovation Zone tax Credit Reviews and Performance-Based Budget highlights for the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Health and Department of Human Services. 01/22/2020
Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Agenda- Year 2 The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 01/21/2020
Research and Development tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Research and Development tax Credit Report. 01/21/2020
Keystone Innovation Zone tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Innovation Zone tax Credit Report. 01/21/2020
Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment tax Credit Report. 01/16/2020
Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Organ and Bone Marrow Donation tax Credit Report. 01/16/2020
tax Incentive Expansion In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office analyzed new or expanded tax credits and special zones approved by the General Assembly since 2009. 12/11/2019
School District Property tax Rebate In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a set of proposed school district property tax rebates for all homestead property owners. 11/12/2019
Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook Announcement: The IFO will present its Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on Pennsylvania's tax and business climate. 11/06/2019
Property tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code affecting personal income and sales and use taxes. 10/04/2019
School District Property tax Elimination In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates potential replacement revenues for school district property taxes described in House Bill 13. 10/03/2019
Senior Spending and tax Revenues In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes (1) state spending dedicated to seniors, (2) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors and (3) potential changes in senior migration patterns due to proposed tax law changes. 09/27/2019
Property tax Elimination for Senior Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposal to eliminate all property taxes for senior homeowners with household income of $40,000 or less. 09/25/2019
Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017 This research brief uses state personal income tax data to estimate natural gas royalties paid to landowners in 2017. The data suggest that royalties paid increased significantly from the prior year due to increased production and higher prices. 09/20/2019
Property tax Rent Rebate Program In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that supplements a previous request to analyze a proposed expansion of the Property tax Rent Rebate Program. 09/17/2019
Property tax Rent Rebate Program In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed expansion of the Property tax Rent Rebate Program. Note: This analysis was originally posted on May 15, 2019. The analysis was reposted on September 12, 2019 to reflect technical adjustments made by the IFO based on research cited in the footnotes of the updated analysis. 09/12/2019
Property tax Rebate for Older Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis of a proposed property tax rebate for older homeowners based on various levels of household income. 09/12/2019
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 08/28/2019
Property tax Rebate for Older Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed property tax rebate for older homeowners based on various levels of household income. 08/22/2019
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/18/2019
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/20/2019
Property tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO has posted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code that affect personal income, sales and property taxes. 05/23/2019
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/22/2019
IFO News Stand - April Edition The April edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/22/2019
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." 03/22/2019
IFO News Stand - March Edition The March edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 03/19/2019
SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY tax FORECAST This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24. 03/18/2019
Homestead Exclusion and PIT In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that computes the level of personal income tax (PIT) increase needed to fully fund a 100% homestead exclusion for school district property taxes. 03/13/2019
Income and Property tax Burden for Retirees In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States (December 2018). The letter also compares Pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states. 03/06/2019
Economic & Budget Outlook Presentation Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 03/01/2019
PROPERTY tax ELIMINATION PROJECTION In response to a legislative request, the IFO has updated projections regarding school district property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be subject to replacement under potential legislation that would eliminate school property taxes. 02/27/2019
Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Agenda- Revised The IFO has posted a revised agenda for the upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 01/22/2019
Film Production tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Film Production tax Credit Report. 01/18/2019
Film, Historic Preservation and New Jobs tax Credit Reviews IFO presentation of the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs tax Credit Reviews. 01/18/2019
New Jobs tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs tax Credits. Click on the link to access the New Jobs tax Credit Report. 01/18/2019
Historic Preservation tax Credit Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed the Film Production, Historic Preservation and New Jobs tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Historic Preservation tax Credit Report. 01/18/2019
Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Agenda The IFO has posted the agenda for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 01/16/2019
Performance-Based Budget Board Hearings Schedule The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budget and tax credit review hearings. 12/14/2018
IFO NEWS STAND - DECEMBER EDITION The December edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 12/11/2018
State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) state tax rates and (4) state debt levels. 12/03/2018
IFO News Stand - November Edition The November edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 11/20/2018
IFO News Stand - October Edition The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 10/17/2018
tax Cut and Jobs Act Update- August 2018 In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy. 08/24/2018
IFO News Stand - August Edition The August edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 08/20/2018
Property tax Update - August 2018 In response to a legislative request, the IFO updated select tables and graphs related to school district property tax that were originally released in January and December of 2017. 08/17/2018
IFO News Stand - July Edition The July edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 07/24/2018
IFO News Stand - June Edition The June edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release highlights links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 06/19/2018
Budget And Economic Update with Property tax Discussion Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO). Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman also discussed an updated school district property tax forecast and recent proposed legislation. 06/05/2018
IFO News Stand - May Edition The May edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 05/16/2018
Federal tax Code Conformity Analysis The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the General Fund revenue impact from conformity with certain federal tax code provisions. 04/27/2018
IFO News Stand - April Edition The first edition of our monthly newsletter – The IFO News Stand. The new release provides links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, budget and tax revenue trends. 04/20/2018
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/18/2018
Corporate Net Income tax Rate Reduction The IFO responds to a legislative request regarding the state corporate net income tax (CNIT). The report contains an analysis of state CNIT rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. 04/11/2018
Neighborhood Assistance Program tax Credit The IFO responds to a request regarding the Neighborhood Assistance Program tax Credit. 04/02/2018
Pennsylvania Natural Gas Royalties The IFO responds to a request regarding natural gas royalty payments in Pennsylvania. Based on draft statutory language provided by the Administration regarding the deductibility of the proposed severance tax from royalty payments, footnote 7 was added to the original letter. (March 23, 2018) 03/23/2018
Fiscal Impact of School Property tax Rebates In response to a legislative request, the IFO estimated the fiscal impact of a school property tax rebate for all homesteads. The rebate would be equal to the statewide average school property tax paid by homesteads. The response includes both baseline estimates for currently eligible homesteads and estimates for a behavioral effect based on the filing of additional homestead applications in response to the availability of rebates. 03/13/2018
IFO Update on Selected Fiscal Topics and Pennsylvania Demographics Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) Pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017. 03/09/2018
State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 02/01/2018
Performance-Based Budget and tax Credit Review Schedule The IFO has posted the schedule for upcoming performance-based budgets and tax credit reviews. 01/30/2018
Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/29/2018
School District Property tax Forecast This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property. Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23. 01/18/2018
Responsiveness of State tax Revenues to Economic Growth In response to a legislative request, the IFO compared the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 12/26/2017
School Property taxes; Households Age 60, 65 and 70 or Older In response to a legislative request, the IFO analyzed data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate the share of school property taxes paid by households in which the householder (or spouse, if applicable) had attained the ages 60 or over, 65 or over and 70 or over. The analysis applies the shares derived from the ACS to estimated school district property tax collections attributable to homestead properties for FY 2015-16 to further estimate the dollar amounts paid by such households. 12/11/2017
County Homestead Detail As an extension of its recent research relating to property taxes, the IFO has released additional data regarding homestead property. Estimates for the numbers and assessed values of homestead properties by county are based, in large part, on the results of a survey of county assessment offices. The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania provided valuable assistance by coordinating the survey. Data for Philadelphia has been adjusted based on new information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. 12/06/2017
School Property tax and Related Data In response to a legislative request, the IFO collected and analyzed certain data related to school property taxes and potential replacement revenues. Data for Philadelphia in Table 3 has been adjusted based on information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. 11/13/2017
Like-Kind Exchange Analysis The IFO responds to a request regarding the economic benefit and tax revenue impact from eliminating Pennsylvania personal income tax on like-kind exchanges. 07/10/2017
State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 05/31/2017
An Overview of School District Property tax Reform Throughout May, Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan will make five presentations on the potential implications of school district property tax reform. The events are sponsored by the Pennsylvania Economy League and will take place at the various locations listed below. Click the following links for additional details: READING Thursday May 4th 7:30-9:00am WILLIAMSPORT Friday May 5th 12:00-1:30pm YORK Thursday May 11th 12:00-1:30pm WILKES-BARRE Friday May 12th 12:00-1:30pm LEHIGH VALLEY Friday May 19th 12:00-1:30pm 05/04/2017
Property tax Elimination Projection The IFO has released new projections regarding school property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be eliminated, and thus subject to replacement, under legislation that may be introduced in the near future (the relevant parameters are summarized in the document). The projection builds upon a school property tax forecast the IFO released in January of this year. 04/11/2017
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2017-18 Executive Budget released February 2017. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” Note: A clarifying sentence was added to page 16 since the original publication. (Revised on April 7, 2017) 04/05/2017
Philadelphia Cigarette & Beverage tax Impact The IFO responds to a request regarding the impact of Philadelphia’s local cigarette and beverage taxes on state revenue collections. The letter has been revised to include current footnotes 3 and 6, which provide additional context for the assumptions used by the analysis. (Revised on March 20, 2017) 03/13/2017
Pennsylvania Gaming Trends This research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16. 02/13/2017
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 02/10/2017
School District Property tax Elimination Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association (PSBA) regarding the current proposal and forecasts for school district property taxes in Pennsylvania. Updated February 13, 2017 01/19/2017*
Updated School District Property tax Forecast Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast. 01/09/2017
The Implications of Economic and Demographic Trends for State and Municipal tax Policy Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation at the Urban Economic and Policy Conference sponsored by Drexel University and Econsult Solutions entitled "The Implications of Economic and Demographic Trends for State and Municipal tax Policy." 04/24/2016
Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2016-17 Executive Budget This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2016-17 Executive Budget released February 2016. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” 04/21/2016
Impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 06/25/2015
Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding proposed changes to personal income and sales tax Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding changes to the personal income and sales taxes proposed in the Executive Budget. The information was presented at a public hearing conducted by the Senate Finance Committee (June 2015). 06/10/2015
Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding a proposed severance tax Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding a proposed severance tax . The information was presented at a public hearing conducted by the Senate Environmental Resources and Energy and Finance Committees (June 2015). 06/01/2015
Analysis of a Statewide Financial Transactions tax Letter discussing issues that should be considered when evaluating a potential state-level tax on the transfer of securities (May 2015). The office was asked to discuss the viability of the tax and identify any benefits or detriments associated with it. 05/15/2015
State and Local taxes: A Comparison Across States The report examines how Pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to make comparisons. 03/30/2015
Property tax Rebate Estimate Letter providing estimates for a potential proposal to give homestead owners school property tax rebates equal to the statewide average school property tax paid (March 2015). 03/11/2015
Impact Fee Update - February 2015 This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 02/27/2015
Updated School District Property tax Forecast Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school property tax collections for FY 2013-14 through FY 2019-20 (December 2014). 12/12/2014
Fiscal Implications of a York County School District Consolidation The report provides potential consolidation savings and costs for 15 York County school districts and computes the real estate tax millage using various earned income tax rates and administrative savings scenarios. Full Report Presentation 12/12/2014
Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate tax Comparison This report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections) 03/17/2014
Analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older Letter providing an analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older (October 2013). The analysis presents a preliminary assessment of data on the cost of a school property tax freeze for those homeowners and a brief discussion of factors that affect the cost of a freeze over the long-term. 10/29/2013
Analysis of Proposal to Replace School Property taxes: House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76 This report presents the results from an analysis of House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76 performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The proposed legislation eliminates local school district property taxes and replaces those funds with sales and use and personal income taxes, as well as monies redirected from the Property tax Relief Fund. Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee on 10/15/2013. Data for the graphs in section 4 of the report that display the annual and cumulative changes in personal income, sales and school property tax collections. Introduction, which contains summary results from the report. 10/01/2013
Projections of school property taxes paid by Pennsylvania homesteads Letter containing projections of the school property taxes paid by Pennsylvania homesteads (September 2013). 09/16/2013
Analysis of Michigan Property tax Reform This report presents the results from an analysis of the Michigan property tax reform known as Proposal A. Enacted in 1994, Proposal A replaced all local property taxes used for school operating purposes with higher sales and use, realty transfer and tobacco taxes. It also created a distinction between homestead and nonhomestead property to facilitate the statewide levy of uniform property taxes on those classes of property. The report makes extensive use of data published by various Michigan executive and legislative agencies to illustrate the impact of property tax reform on tax revenues, millage rates, per pupil funding levels and the property tax base over the past two decades. 09/16/2013
Estimate of property taxes paid by Lancaster County homeowners aged 70 and over Letter containing an estimate of property taxes paid by Lancaster County homeowners aged 70 and over (June 2013). 06/24/2013
Uncapping the Film Production tax Credit: A Fiscal and Economic Analysis This report presents the results of an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on the fiscal and economic impacts of eliminating the cap on Pennsylvania’s film production tax credit (FPTC). The report also considers stand-alone tax credits for post-production and digital interactive media services. 05/31/2013
Corporate tax Base Erosion: Analysis of Policy Options Analysis of the policies that states have used to preserve or expand the corporate tax base. The report focuses on two particular base retention or expansion policies: combined reporting and expense addbacks. 03/04/2013
Proposed Sales tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair Analysis of a proposed sales and use tax exemption for purchases of fixed-wing aircraft, parts and maintenance, repair and overhaul services. 01/04/2013
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The Hits: 353
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf Cover: Historic Preservation Tax Credit project: “The Millworks” located in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and Hits: 349
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and Jobs Creation tax credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to Hits: 289
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Hits: 284
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf blank. - Page 1 Introduction Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review the various Pennsylvania state tax credits every five years. 1 The IFO must submit all tax credit reviews to the Performance-Based Budget (PBB) Board for approval and make the reports available to the public on Hits: 268
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf FISCAL OFFICE April 22, 2021 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released in February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to Hits: 268
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Hits: 267
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf Page 1 Introduction This document discusses the methodologies used by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to forecast various tax and non-tax revenues. It contains three parts. The first part provides an overview of the general meth- ods used by the IFO. The second Hits: 265
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Hits: 264
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf Page 1 Introduction This document discusses the methodologies used by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to forecast various tax and non-tax revenues. It contains three parts. The first part provides an overview of the general meth- ods used by the IFO. The second Hits: 261
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The Hits: 258
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Hits: 256
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf blank. - Introduction \| Page 1 Introduction This document discusses the methodologies used by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to forecast various tax and non-tax revenues. It contains three parts. The first part provides an overview of the general meth- ods used by the IFO Hits: 256
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf blank. - Introduction \| Page 1 Introduction This document discusses the methodologies used by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to forecast various tax and non-tax revenues. It contains three parts. The first part provides an overview of the general meth- ods used by the IFO Hits: 253
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2024_06.pdf blank. - Introduction \| Page 1 Introduction This document discusses the methodologies used by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to forecast various tax and non-tax revenues. It contains three parts. The first part provides an overview of the general meth- ods used by the IFO Hits: 252
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf blank. - Introduction \| Page 1 Introduction This document discusses the methodologies used by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to forecast various tax and non-tax revenues. It contains three parts. The first part provides an overview of the general meth- ods used by the IFO Hits: 252
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed five tax credits: the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Hits: 200
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The Hits: 198
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE November 23, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and local taxes are necessary to fund the many services provided by governments such as education, law enforcement, healthcare, the building and maintenance of public roads and highways, and the management of natural resources. State and local governments utilize different taxes, fees, tolls and assessments to generate the funds necessary to provide those services and meet the needs of residents. This report uses Hits: 194
TC_2022_Brewers.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Educational, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Brewers’ and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO Hits: 192
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Educational, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Brewers’ and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO Hits: 189
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf us Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Revenue Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Tax Comparison Study Page 1 Methodology and Data Sources This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The Hits: 185
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf 1 State and Local Tax Revenues A 50 State Comparison JANUARY 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 19, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and local taxes are necessary to fund the many services provided by governments such as education, law enforcement, healthcare, the building and maintenance Hits: 183
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf April 23, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2020-21 Executive Budget released in February 2020. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates Hits: 183
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf 1 State and Local Taxes A Comparison Across States JANUARY 2020 Independent Fiscal Office About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE January 29, 2020 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: State and local taxes are necessary to fund the many services provided by governments such as education, law enforcement, healthcare, the building and maintenance of public Hits: 182
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf page intentionally left blank. - Table of Contents Background on Performance-Based Budgeting .................................................................................... 1 Department of Revenue Overview ..................................................................................................... 3 Activity 1: Tax Administration ............................................................................................................ 9 Activity 2: Enforcement .................................................................................................................. 13 Activity 3: Lottery .......................................................................................................................... 17 Activity 4: Property Tax and Rent Rebate (PTRR) .............................................................................. 23 Activity 5: Administration ................................................................................................................ 27 Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... 29 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ..................................................... 29 Hits: 180
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf INTRODUCTION In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) undertook an analysis of state corporate net income tax (CNIT) rates, their impact on revenues and a proposal to reduce the Pennsylvania CNIT rate. House Bill 130 of 2017 CNIT revenues to state personal income and population. Those two metrics are commonly used to compare the relative burden of taxes across states. The third section discusses the entities who bear the economic and statutory burden of the tax. Due to Hits: 179
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Manufacturing, Resource Manufac- turing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO Hits: 178
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17105 April 17, 2018 This document provides an analysis of the tax proposals included in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released in February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) pub- lishes this report to Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analy- sis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This analysis uses various data sources to derive estimates Hits: 171
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf For FY 2014-15 to FY 2016-17, revenues will increase by 4.0 percent per annum. 2 • The Pennsylvania tax base will continue its long-term contraction due to demographic factors. General Fund Expenditure Trends Based on demographic and economic new or whether a particular series simply reverts to some historical norm. For example, it is known that personal income tax collections have increased since the previous recession. But merely knowing the level of collections does not provide a useful benchmark Hits: 169
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the first year, the IFO reviewed three tax credits: the Historic Preservation, Film Production and Jobs Creation tax credits. The act requires the IFO to submit tax credit reviews to Hits: 165
SR2017-03.pdf Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Methodology This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the Hits: 164
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Educational, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Brewers’ and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO Hits: 162
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Educational, Coal Refuse En- ergy and Reclamation, Brewers’ and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits. The act requires the Hits: 160
index.cfm Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Energy Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases County Income Patterns 2019 to 2022 Economics and Other September 09, 2024 This Hits: 155
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf January 4, 2013 Special Report 2013-1 Independent Fiscal Office Proposed Sales Tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue the results from an analysis performed by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) of a proposed Sales and Use Tax (SUT) exemption for purchases of fixed-wing aircraft, parts and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services. Legislation creating an SUT exemption consistent Hits: 151
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf Staff Acknowledgements Rachel Flaugh, Fiscal Analyst I Staff Contact: rflaugh@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - State Tax Comparison Page 1 Methodology and Data Sources This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, CCH AnswerConnect and the Tax Foundation to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) per Hits: 150
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit Hits: 149
RB-2017-5.pdf State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Responsiveness of Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction This analysis responds by a member of the General Assembly to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The analysis compares the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 1 For this analysis Hits: 149
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: The Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Mar- row Donation Tax Credits. The Hits: 138
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO to submit Hits: 133
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf This page intentionally left blank. - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE March 22, 2019 This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released in February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to derive estimates Hits: 117
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement 11 General Fund Revenue Projections ......................................................................... 12 General Fund Financial Statement Comparison ........................................................ 13 General Fund Education Expenditures .................................................................... 14 School District Property Tax ................................................................................... 15 Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends ....................................................................... 16 State and Local Tax Burden: Average Tax Rate and Rank ........................................ 17 SERS Hits: 116
State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf Independent Fiscal Office State and Local Tax Comparison Study October 2012 About the Independent Fiscal Office The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provides revenue projections for use in of Nov. 23, 2010 (P.L.1269, No.120). __________________________________________________________ This page was left blank intentionally. State and Local Tax Comparison Study 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction Policymakers often inquire about their state’s tax system relative to other states Hits: 114
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf the House and Senate Finance Committees: Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review various state tax credits over a five- year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Manufacturing, Resource Manufac- turing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. The act requires the IFO Hits: 103
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf On December 22, 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was signed into law. The act made significant changes to the federal individual income and corporate net income tax codes that generally became effective for tax year 2018. Recently, the IRS released state level tax data that reveal the Hits: 97
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf 19 budget proposal. For the upcoming year, the fulfillment of new statutory duties related to performance-based budgeting (PBB) and tax credit reviews will engage much of the office’s resources. A schedule for PBB and tax credit reviews, developed jointly with the Office of the Budget, can be found at the end of this submission. It Hits: 92
NAP-2018-03.pdf Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) encourages businesses to invest in projects that serve distressed areas or support neighborhood conservation. 1 This tax credit program is administered by the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) and consists of five components: (1) the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit, (2) the Special Program Priorities, (3) the Neighborhood Partnership Program, (4) the Charitable Food Program and (5) the Enterprise Hits: 89
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf provide updated estimates. The updated tables are as follows. Table 1 provides the latest IFO baseline for school district property taxes. This baseline was released by the office in February 2021. Table 2 provides detail on the estimated costs of major funds that total $5.0 million and $5.8 million, respectively. In the Lottery Fund, the transfer for the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program that would have occurred in 1 See http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file Hits: 85
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf Employment .......................................................................................................12 Labor Force Trends ........................................................................................................14 Income Trends ..............................................................................................................17 Unspent Federal Stimulus ...............................................................................................18 Consumer Spending Patterns ..........................................................................................20 Inflation and Sales Taxes ................................................................................................21 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................22 Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................................. 23 Personal Income Tax......................................................................................................24 Sales and Use Tax .........................................................................................................25 Corporate Net Income Tax .............................................................................................26 Other Revenue Sources ..................................................................................................27 Expenditure Outlook .......................................................................................................... 29 Current Services Hits: 81
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf to seniors by major category of taxation.  The impact on the net migration of seniors if school district property taxes were eliminated and (1) retirement income was taxed at a rate of 4.92 percent or (2) retirement income remains untaxed.  The potential impact on expected costs Hits: 78
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf the State Labor Force........................................................ 9 Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Consumer Inflation ........................................................................................................................ 14 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 15 Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 17 Tax Revenue Trends and Projections .............................................................................................. 18 Personal Income Tax ..................................................................................................................... 19 Sales and Use Tax ......................................................................................................................... 20 Corporate Net Income Tax ............................................................................................................. 21 Other Revenue Highlights .............................................................................................................. 22 Expenditure Outlook.......................................................................................................................... 25 Technical Notes Hits: 78
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf Consumer Trends ..........................................................................................................19 Housing Trends .............................................................................................................20 Section 4: Revenue Outlook ............................................................................................... 21 Revenue Versus Economic Growth ..................................................................................22 Personal Income Tax .....................................................................................................24 Sales and Use Tax .........................................................................................................25 Corporate Net Income Tax .............................................................................................26 Gross Receipts Tax ........................................................................................................27 Realty Transfer Tax........................................................................................................27 Other Revenue Sources ..................................................................................................28 Section 5: Expenditure Outlook Hits: 78
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf Economic and Budget Outlook An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE sponsored by the PA Economy League MAY 19, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar Makes NO Policy Recommendations. 19.May.2017 Independent Fiscal Office 2 Broad overview of the potential implications of school property tax reform. Three parts: 1. Types of school property tax proposals that have been considered by the General Assembly. 2. Background Hits: 77
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf the FY 2020-21 budget proposal. For the upcoming year, new statutory duties related to performance-based budgeting (PBB) and tax credit reviews will engage much of the office’s resources. A schedule for PBB plans and tax credit reviews, developed jointly with the Office of the Budget, can be found at the end of this submission. In Hits: 74
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf shortfall to (1) the Education Stabilization Fund and (2) school districts.  Detail by revenue source.  Background on Property Tax forecast.  Some general economic analysis. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 2 The Proposal  Eliminates local school property tax.  Property taxes to service debt existing as of Dec. 31, 2011 retained and phased-out.  State funding based Hits: 73
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf 000s) 46.7 52.2 60.4 61.8 Home Price Index 2.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% Tax revenues exceed estimate through February (+$135 million)  Strong acceleration of estimated income tax payments in Dec-Jan (+33%)  Mini-casino license auctions strong (+$90 million), inheritance collections above estimate (+$30 million)  Hits: 73
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf FISCAL OFFICE May 3, 2023 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2023-24 Executive Budget released in March 2023. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to Hits: 70
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf of Pennsylvania January 29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts.  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data and tax reform.  Federal tax cut: economic and General Fund impact.  Revenues: FY 17-18 update; preliminary look at FY 18-19. Public presentation Hits: 69
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reduction enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product Hits: 67
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf Pennsylvania forecast projects an acceleration of economic growth from 2017 into 2018 partly due to the federal income tax reductions enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product Hits: 66
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf Independent Fiscal Office February 2020 1 February 2020 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals Hits: 64
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf Executive Budget vs. IFO ....................................................................................... 7 Revenue Proposals Minimum Wage Rates by State ............................................................................... 8 Increasing Minimum Wage to $15 ........................................................................... 9 Marijuana Taxes .................................................................................................. 10 Lottery and Gaming Trends .................................................................................. 12 Revenues, Economics and Demographics Revenue Trends .................................................................................................. 13 Economic Trends ................................................................................................. 14 Jobs and Real Earnings Debt .................................................................................. 17 Demographic Projections ...................................................................................... 18 Demographics – Components of Population Change ............................................... 19 Other Data Natural Gas Trends .............................................................................................. 20 State and Local Taxes Per Capita .......................................................................... 21 Corporate Net Income Tax Comparison ................................................................. 22 State Pension Outlook .......................................................................................... 23 Economic Development Incentives ........................................................................ 24 - This page intentionally Hits: 64
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf 2,966 $3,089 $2,065 $4,767 $4,342 $2,608 $3,220 $35,518 Total Corporation Taxes 98 66 593 123 133 567 165 104 2,352 357 351 642 5,550 Corporate Net Income 93 59 571 112 461 Financial Institutions 0 1 15 2 1 9 5 1 337 3 1 10 383 Total Consumption Taxes 1,139 1,085 1,088 1,127 1,076 1,149 1,152 922 996 1,011 1,123 1,177 Hits: 63
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization that works on federal, state, and local tax policy issues. ITEP's mission is to ensure that elected officials, the media, and the general public have access to accurate, timely, and straightforward information that allows them to understand the effects of current and proposed tax policies. Tax Rates and Economic Development : Any Linkage?  Unsurprisingly, no academic consensus  Some studies find significant, if small Hits: 62
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement Year-to-Date ............................................................................... 11 Revenues – General Fund Projections ...................................................................... 12 Energy Trends ........................................................................................................ 13 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative .......................................................................... 15 State and Local Tax Burden ..................................................................................... 16 Corporate Net Income Tax State Comparison ........................................................... 17 State Pension Outlook ............................................................................................. 18 Economic Development Incentives ........................................................................... 20 Minimum Wage Rates Hits: 62
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf Labor Force Trends Among Older Adults ................................................................................ 7 Economic Outlook ................................................................................................................... 11 Revenue Outlook ..................................................................................................................... 15 Revenue Trends and Projections .................................................................................................... 16 Personal Income Tax ..................................................................................................................... 17 Sales and Use Tax ......................................................................................................................... 18 Corporate Net Income Tax ............................................................................................................. 19 Realty Transfer Tax ....................................................................................................................... 20 Other Revenue Highlights .............................................................................................................. 20 Expenditure Outlook ............................................................................................................... 23 Technical Notes and Hits: 62
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf FISCAL OFFICE March 28, 2024 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2024-25 Governor’s Executive Budget released in February 2024. The Independent Fiscal Office of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to Hits: 61
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf Wages and Salaries growth rate based on withholding revenues. Economic Outlook \| Page 4 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth and Tax Revenues On May 11, 2023, the Biden administration declared an end to the COVID-19 public health emergency. During the GDP) since 1968. State-level profit metrics are not published, but over the four-year period, cor- porate net income tax (CNIT) collections expanded by 87% (adds back an estimated -$150 million in FY 2022-23 due to the phase-in Hits: 59
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE, or department) is for fiscal Hits: 59
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf Salaries growth rate based on withholding revenues through May. Economic Outlook \| Page 4 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth and Tax Revenues On May 11, 2023, the Biden administration declared an end to the COVID-19 public health emergency. During the GDP) since 1968. State-level profit metrics are not published, but over the four-year period, cor- porate net income tax (CNIT) collections expanded by 80%. (Note: this adds back an estimated -$200 million impact in FY 2022-23 due to Hits: 58
MQRE_FY24-25_08_2024.pdf contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 20, 2024, adjusted to reflect tax law changes enacted with the FY 2024-25 state budget. The adjustments are summarized in Table 1. A comparison of 12.7 Total -$200.1 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments Note: Figures in dollar millions. SUT is sales and use tax. PIT is personal income tax. Figures exclude the $115.3 million cigarette tax transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund, as Hits: 57
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement Fiscal Year to Date ................................................................................ 10 Revenues – General Fund Projections ...................................................................... 11 Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends ......................................................................... 12 State and Local Tax Burden ..................................................................................... 13 Corporate Net Income Tax State Comparison ........................................................... 14 State Pension Outlook ............................................................................................. 15 Economic Development Incentives ........................................................................... 16 Minimum Wage by Hits: 57
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf 456 -14,422 -24,191 Note: Millions of dollars. Baseline Revenues assume an annual transfer of $115 million from cigarette taxes. The balance sheet utilizes revenue estimates from the IFO's Mid-Year Update (FY 23-24 and FY 24-25 interest per annum. Adjusted General Fund Financial Statement March 15, 2024 Page 3 Senator Haywood requested a comparison of Pennsylvania tax liability and the tax liability that would result if the Ohio graduated income tax rate structure was used. The table Hits: 56
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf 23 Corporate Net Income -$89.7 Insurance Premiums -8.2 Bank Shares -16.2 Mutual Thrift Institutions -0.9 Sales Tax - Non-motor 100.2 Table Games -5.0 Personal Income - Withholding -69.4 Personal Income - Estimated -4.5 Personal Income 115.3 million transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund and the $353.4 million change in the deposit of Gaming Tax revenues, as those were already included as assumptions in the IFO's June 23, 2022 official estimate. FY 2022-23 Hits: 56
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast projects that:  Real GDP (real gross domestic product a continuation of that trend. For 2018, the U.S. GDP data reflect the impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, but the impact is less noticeable for Pennsylvania. However, the tax law change did manifest Hits: 55
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf This report provides an updated forecast of statewide school district property taxes based on the latest published revenue data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The most recent school district property tax data published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE, or the department) is for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. For Hits: 54
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf FISCAL OFFICE April 8, 2022 The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: This report provides an analysis of the tax and revenue proposals included in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released in February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.” This report uses various data sources to Hits: 53
RB-2016-02.pdf Development Incentives Economic development incentives attempt to stimulate economic growth through various direct (e.g., expenditures) and indirect (e.g., tax credits) spending mechanisms. Many states publish comprehensive reports that detail their spending on economic development incentives. In Pennsylvania, the information machinery or other equipment and build more than they would have otherwise. Incentive programs seek to accomplish this through expenditures, tax breaks, loans or grants. The report excludes provisions that are intended to reduce distortions attributable to the tax code. For Hits: 53
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf Overview of School District Property Tax Elimination Presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Mark Ryan, Deputy Director January 19 projections: November, May/June and January.  Special reports at request of General Assembly. First: Provide some context on property taxes.  School district reliance on property tax.  Compare PA and US average state-local tax structures. Next: Consider our Hits: 53
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf are for 2020 Q4. All other data for CY 2021 are preliminary or are estimates by IFO based on recent tax data. The data show the following trends: ▪ State personal income expanded rapidly in 2020 Q2 and Q3 due to economic that transfer another $21.4 billion to state residents in CY 2021. ▪ The ARP made significant changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for tax year (TY) 2021, includ- ing: increase in value from $2,000 to $3,000 ($3,600 Hits: 52
RB-2018-01.pdf Independent Fiscal Of Ðice January 2018 1 Research Brief 2018‐1 January 2018 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative and public interest. This analysis provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that Hits: 51
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19 Section 4: Revenue Outlook .................................................................................................... 21 Personal Income Tax ..................................................................................................................... 22 Sales and Use Tax ......................................................................................................................... 23 Corporate Net Income Tax ............................................................................................................. 24 Other Revenue Sources ................................................................................................................. 25 Section 5: Expenditure Outlook .............................................................................................. 27 Current Services Versus Cost-to- Hits: 51
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf 2022. Residual amounts of funding support from Economic Impact Payments (stimulus checks), ex- panded federal unemployment benefits and expanded child tax credits provides nearly $400 million to Pennsylvania residents in CY 2022. 2020 2021 2022 Total Payments to Individuals or Businesses 9 1.8 1.5 4.2 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 Expanded Child Tax Credits -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Rental and Homeowner Assistance -- 2.0 0.0 2.0 Paycheck Protection Program Hits: 50
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf 2022. Residual amounts of funding support from Economic Impact Payments (stimulus checks), ex- panded federal unemployment benefits and expanded child tax credits provides nearly $400 million to Pennsylvania residents in CY 2022. 2 See “Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting Employment 9 1.8 1.5 4.2 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 Expanded Child Tax Credits -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Rental and Homeowner Assistance -- 2.0 0.0 2.0 Paycheck Protection Program Hits: 50
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth due to (1) the fading impact of the federal income tax cut and (2) a more moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast for calendar years 2019 and 2020 projects that:  a continuation of that trend. For 2018, the U.S. GDP data reflect the impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, but the impact is less noticeable for Pennsylvania. However, the tax law change did manifest Hits: 50
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf Independent Fiscal Office March 2019 1 March 2019 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals Hits: 49
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf be least severe across all 50 states due to the composition of the state economy and flat income tax structure. See https://www.taxadmin.org/assets/docs/econ-webinar/StressTesting-States_040920.pdf. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CBO Real GDP 2 3 provides estimates of the funds that will flow into Pennsylvania due to new and expanded federal programs, tax cuts and delays, and state UC payments attributable to COVID-19. These programs and provisions play a crucial role by moderating the Hits: 49
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf are for 2020 Q4. All other data for CY 2021 are preliminary or are estimates by IFO based on recent tax data. The data show the following trends: ▪ State personal income expanded rapidly in 2020 Q2 and Q3 due to economic that transfer another $21.4 billion to state residents in CY 2021. ▪ The ARP made significant changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for tax year (TY) 2021, includ- ing: increase in value from $2,000 to $3,000 ($3,600 Hits: 49
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2012 How Will the Proposed Extension of the Payroll Tax Cut Impact the PA Economy and Tax Revenues? Director’s Note: The following text discusses the possible economic impact from a policy under consideration by the U Hits: 48
RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) returns filed for tax year (TY) 2019 with the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue. That tax year was the final year prior to an historic Hits: 48
PICPA_Presentation.pdf Economic Update. Lots of jobs created, does not translate to spending. Weak spending yields minimal profits growth. Budget Proposals and Tax Burden Rankings. Deficit projections remain high (~$2.5 - $3.0 billion). PA state-local tax burden similar to U.S. average. Factors That Affect Revenue Shortfall Taxable consumer spending is weak.  Base sales tax Hits: 48
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf be least severe across all 50 states due to the composition of the state economy and flat income tax structure. See https://www.taxadmin.org/assets/docs/econ-webinar/StressTesting-States_040920.pdf. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CBO Real GDP 2 3 provides estimates of the funds that will flow into Pennsylvania due to new and expanded federal programs, tax cuts and delays, and state UC payments attributable to COVID-19. These programs and provisions play a crucial role by moderating the Hits: 46
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf Based Budgeting ...................................................................................... 1 Department of Labor and Industry Overview ........................................................................................ 3 Activity 1: Unemployment Compensation Benefits ................................................................................. 9 Activity 2: Unemployment Compensation Tax Services ........................................................................ 17 Activity 3: Unemployment Compensation Appeals ............................................................................... 21 Activity 4: Workforce Development .................................................................................................... 23 Activity 5: Apprenticeship and Training Office ..................................................................................... 27 Mediation and Relations ......................................................................................... 57 Activity 14: PennSERVE ..................................................................................................................... 59 Activity 15: Administration and Support .............................................................................................. 61 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 63 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ....................................................... 63 Agency Response .......................................................................................................................... 64 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance- Hits: 46
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) dataset to present property tax information based on county, homeowner age and household income level. 1,2 These data show that in 2018, there were 3.48 million owner-occupied households in Pennsylvania. Those households paid an average of $3,457 in property taxes, or 3.4 percent of total household income. This figure includes all types of property taxes: school district, county and Hits: 46
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf Independent Fiscal Office February 8, 2013 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt 6 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 7 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 8 Personal Income Tax – Withholding 9 Personal Income Tax – Nonwithholding 10 Corporate Hits: 46
Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf fiscal year. These include: (1) the federal deficit and impact on interest rates, (2) expiration (end of 2025) of federal tax cuts under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), (3) uncertainty related to the federal election in November 2024 and on-going international conflicts Hits: 45
Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf fiscal year. These include: (1) the federal deficit and impact on interest rates, (2) expiration (end of 2025) of federal tax cuts under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), (3) uncertainty related to the federal election in November 2024 and on-going international conflicts Hits: 44
RB_2024_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf 1) county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) to estimate the 2022 homeowner-renter property tax burden by county. The homeowner-renter property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which reduced school district property taxes by Hits: 44
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf brief utilizes county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED) to estimate the 2021 property tax burden by county. For all counties, the property tax burden reflects the Homestead Exemption, which reduced school district property taxes Hits: 44
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage March 4, 2022 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts Hits: 44
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf partisan Duties span a wide range of issues:  Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?)  Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews  Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics and economy  Labor Hits: 44
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf This research brief estimates the total 2019 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). For all counties, the Hits: 43
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf of AdministrationCommonwealth of Pennsylvania Representative Mike TobashDistrict 125 Berks and Schuylkill Counties Mr. David F. Werner, CPARetired PrincipalState and Local Tax ServicesParenteBeard LLC Representative R. Ted HarhaiDistrict 58 Fayette and Westmoreland Counties Mr. John J. Egan, Jr.President, J. Egan Consulting goals of the Commonwealth?.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Part V–Local Government Pensions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Part VI–Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Tables•Table 1–Personal Income Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates.. . . . . . 9•Table 2–Sales Tax, Additional Revenue Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9•Table 3–Cash Infusion Projections – Public SchoolEmployees’ Retirement Hits: 43
EPLC-2-19-21.pdf vs non-partisan Duties span a wide range of issues: ▪ Revenue estimates (how much revenues are available?) ▪ Performance based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts Hits: 42
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf Table 1 provides the most recent breakdown of the revenue sources used by school districts. The data show that property taxes comprised 42.4 percent of school district funds for FY 2016-17. Table 2 groups school districts into four quartiles based on the share of funding provided by property taxes. For the top quartile, property taxes provided nearly two-thirds of total funding (average across the 125 districts in that Hits: 41
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf This research brief estimates the total 2020 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED). For all counties, the Hits: 40
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf for your March 2, 2022 letter that asks the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues. This analysis uses the same data sources and methodologies used to provide previous estimates. The updated tables are as follows. Table 1 provides the latest IFO baseline for school district property taxes. This baseline was released by the office in November 2021. The IFO estimates that 58% of statewide property taxes are Hits: 40
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf fiscal year 2019-20 budget proposal. For the upcoming year, new statutory duties related to performance-based budgeting (PBB) and tax credit reviews will engage much of the office’s resources. A schedule for PBB plans and tax credit reviews, developed jointly with the Office of the Budget, can be found at the end of this submission. In Hits: 40
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf This update provides an overview of statewide school district (SD) property tax collections as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and an outlook for future collections based on the latest economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). For FY 2021-22, data published by PDE show that SD property tax collections were $16.1 billion. The total includes $15.0 billion in current-year collections, $535 million in Act 1 Hits: 39
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf This update provides an overview of statewide school district (SD) property tax collections as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and an outlook for future collections based on the latest data and economic projections by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The latest data published by PDE show that SD property tax collections were $15.7 billion in FY 2020-21. The total includes $14.6 billion in current-year collections, $535 Hits: 39
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf  The estimates include the impact of changes in behavior and compliance at full implementation for each of the proposed tax rates.  Your letter indicates that the additional sales and use tax (SUT) would be imposed at the local level, similar to the existing local SUT in Philadelphia and Allegheny counties. Unlike Hits: 39
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf Investment ....................................................................33 Activity 8: Local Government Operational Support................................................................35 Activity 9: Community and Citizen Development ..................................................................37 Activity 10: Tax Credit Administration .................................................................................41 Activity 11: Office of Open Records ....................................................................................43 Activity 12: Small Business Advocate ..................................................................................45 Activity 13: Administration .................................................................................................47 Appendix ..........................................................................................................................49 Regional and County Map ...............................................................................................49 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................51 Agency Response...........................................................................................................52 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48 Hits: 39
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 Consumer Debt 7 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 8 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 9 Personal Income Tax – Withholding 10 Personal Income Tax – Nonwithholding 11 Corporate Net Income Tax 12 Realty Transfer Hits: 39
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf Budget Outlook (November 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 3 (November 2016) • Impact Fee Estimate (January 2017) • School District Property Tax Forecast (January 2017) • Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements (January 2017) • Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2017) • Mid-Year Update FY Contracted Actuarial Analysis Actuarial Appropriated / Proposed Summary of IFO Expenditures Subtotal Operating Personnel Office Operations & Supplies Salaries Benefits Retirement Employer Taxes Computers, Networks, Servers and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Professional Publications & Research Materials Parking Other Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic Hits: 39
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf Budget Outlook (November 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 3 (November 2016) • Impact Fee Estimate (January 2017) • School District Property Tax Forecast (January 2017) • Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements (January 2017) • Quarterly Revenue Review (January 2017) • Mid-Year Update FY Contracted Actuarial Analysis Actuarial Appropriated / Proposed Summary of IFO Expenditures Subtotal Operating Personnel Office Operations & Supplies Salaries Benefits Retirement Employer Taxes Computers, Networks, Servers and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Professional Publications & Research Materials Parking Other Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic Hits: 39
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf million, or 0.5% of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues exceeded estimate, sales and use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was Hits: 38
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf Independent Fiscal Office March 8, 2018 Today’s Presentation Updates on topics covered in recent IFO analyses:  School property tax  Demographics  Revenue estimates  Pensions / Act 5 2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax Update New Forecast, Including Homestead Property Background on Property Tax and Discussion Regarding Possible Replacement Options Challenges for Replacement: Growing Hits: 38
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf 3 parts ▪ I. Statewide economic trends: labor market, inflation and demographics ▪ II. Industry trends and state comparisons: jobs, wages and taxes ▪ III. State budget: revenue proposals and key issues April 19, 2023 1 “Why the Recession is Always Six Months Away 16.9 $0.1 -- -- Economic Impact Payments 11.2 22.1 0.8 -- -- Paycheck Protection 20.7 10.0 -- -- -- Child Tax Credit and ERC -- 4.4 2.9 -- -- SNAP and P-EBT 1.3 3.4 2.2 $0.4 $0 Hits: 38
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf This research brief provides an overview of Pennsylvania’s gasoline tax rate, revenue collections, consumption and average tax burden per Pennsylvania licensed driver. Gasoline tax collections comprise roughly 55% of total Motor License Fund (MLF) revenues. 1 Residual Hits: 37
QRR_2015Q2.pdf revenues for the second quarter of 2015 were $166 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $38 million above estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $19 million below estimate and personal income tax revenues were $51 million above estimate. All other General Fund Hits: 37
PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf March 13, 2020 Property Tax Update Pennsylvania School Boards Association March 13, 2020 School District Revenues: FY 2017-18 March 13, 2020 2 Source Amount Percent Property Tax $13,511 44.6% Earned Income $1,592 5.3% Other Local Sources $2,347 7.8% Act 1 Allocations Hits: 37
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf 3: The State Museum ......................................................................................................... 13 Activity 4: Historic Preservation ....................................................................................................... 15 Activity 5: Administration ................................................................................................................ 19 Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ..................................................... 21 Agency Response ....................................................................................................................... 22 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 37
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf million, or 0.5% of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues exceeded estimate, sales and use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was Hits: 36
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf 5 percent of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues exceeded estimate, sales and use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable Hits: 35
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf Corporate Net Income -$44.5 Gross Receipts -0.3 Insurance Premiums -6.2 Bank Shares -4.1 Sales Tax - Non-motor -18.7 Tables Games 12.3 Personal Income - Withholding -12.3 Personal Income - Annual -20.3 Other Miscellaneous 3,841 3,282 $3,149 $2,178 $4,978 $4,514 $2,772 $3,526 $41,915 Total Corporation Taxes 142 75 690 122 143 627 145 99 2,264 410 366 639 5,721 Corporate Net Income 121 69 673 114 Hits: 35
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf This research brief presents Pennsylvania tax credit and other incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The brief separates incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The amount reported for each incentive is an Hits: 34
QRR_2013Q4.pdf million below estimate for the fourth quarter of calendar year 2013. 1 As shown by Table 1, corporate net income tax revenues were $58 million above estimate in the fourth quarter while sales and use tax and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by $32 million and $13 million, respectively. All other General Fund revenues Hits: 34
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf ten-year static and dynamic revenue estimates for proposed changes to the imposition, deposit and expenditure of motor vehicle related tax revenues. Specifically, you request that we estimate: • Deposit of motor vehicle sales and use tax (MVSUT) revenue into the Motor License Fund (MLF). Under current law, MVSUT collections are primarily deposited into the General Fund Hits: 34
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf General Assembly, this research brief examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year. The analysis excludes other important local Hits: 33
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf  Gains (PIT and SUT) offset losses (CNIT and GRT).  ~$200 million short: non-receipt of JUA transfer.  Tax revenue growth: 16-17 (+1.6%) \| 17-18 (+3.9%). FY 18-19: tax revenue growth of +4.2%.  Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy.  Corporate base expansion enhances revenues Hits: 33
Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf November 14, 2019 Modernizing Pennsylvania’s Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Katherine Loughead Policy Analyst Center for State Tax Policy Tax Foundation kloughead@taxfoundation.org PENNSYLVANIA’S TAX CODE CONTAINS MULTIPLE BARRIERS TO BUSINESS TAX COMPETITIVENESS STATE  Uncompetitive Hits: 32
RB_2024_06_Sources_PA_Income.pdf the first in a series that describes a model the IFO will use to evaluate the distribution of state-local taxes paid by state residents across various income and age groups and homeownership status. The model will provide insights into the progressivity or regressivity of state-local taxes. This brief describes the amount and types of income received by state residents. Data sources are noted on the next Hits: 32
RB-2015-02-annual_vs_lifetime_ETR.pdf Independent Fiscal Office February 2015 Effective Tax Rate Comparisons – Severance Taxes An effective tax rate is useful when comparing state severance taxes because it incorporates not only the statutory tax rate Hits: 32
MTR-2017-05.pdf to-date revenues were $28.41 billion, an increase of $564 million (2.0%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue May-17 $2,582 $2,257 $325 Growth 32.8% 18.5% 719.7% FYTD $28,405 $27,527 Hits: 32
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf 5 percent of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and escheats (unclaimed property that is remitted to the Commonwealth, such as abandoned bank accounts, included in non-tax) revenues exceeded Hits: 31
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf gains from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax revenues very strong (much is permanent). Corporate net income gains (temporary, old tax years). IFO adds +$373 million to official Hits: 31
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 31
Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf This report presents Pennsylvania tax credit and other incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24. It is separated into four categories: tax credits, spending or grants, job training programs and loan programs. The amount reported is an estimate of the dollars claimed Hits: 30
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf 5 percent of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues exceeded estimate, sales and use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable Hits: 30
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The brief divides economic development incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and reflect the utilization of tax credits (i.e., the application Hits: 30
MTR-2017-10.pdf FY 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $9.6 million (-0.1 percent) below the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $27.4 million (-0.3 percent) below estimate and non-tax revenues were $17.8 million (29.8 percent) above estimate. As shown in the table below, two of the three Hits: 30
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf Economics). • Due to low gasoline prices. Low utility prices too. • Strong dollar also makes imports cheaper. Why Does This Matter? • Tax revenues include inflation. • Inflation is transmitted to tax revenues through (1) higher prices (SUT) and (2) higher wages (PIT). • Expenditure impact unclear (e.g., contracts and healthcare). • Inflation Hits: 30
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf August 24, 2018 Page 2 the federal income tax returns filed by Pennsylvania residents, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is unable to simulate the number of taxpayers that would be affected and the potential increase in after- tax income due to the federal tax cut. Therefore, the data from Table 1 represent the upper limit on the number Hits: 29
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf was added to the IFO’s Monthly Economic Update. Senator Haywood requested an analysis showing the effect of a regressive tax system on Pennsylvania’s workforce. All of the Commonwealth’s border states impose a graduated (i.e., progressive) income tax. The table below displays the effective tax rate for three income groups: (1) $10,000, (2) $30,000 and (3 Hits: 29
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Corporate profits are domestic, non-financial profits only. Wages vs Tax Revenue Growth May 20, 2019 4 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Wage Growth Tax Revenue Growth strong profits internet sales income shifting +2.7 ppt difference ~+$860 million Avg. Growth Rates wages = 3.3% Hits: 29
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf 70% of economic activity. o Federal, state and local budgets are constrained. o Weak overseas demand.  Sales and Use Tax collections have been very weak. o July to December growth = 2.1%.  Will it continue? o Higher federal taxes reduce disposable income in 2013. o Psychological impact: fiscal cliff and debt ceiling. o Any residual pent‐up demand? 23 Hits: 29
RB_2024_07_CNIT.pdf Act 53 of 2022 phased down the corporate net income tax (CNIT) rate from 9.99% in tax year 2022 to 4.99% by tax year 2031. The new state budget further reduces corporate tax liability by raising Hits: 29
QRR_2014Q2.pdf million below estimate for the second quarter of calendar year 2014. 1 As shown by Table 1, corporate net income tax and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by $80 million and $185 million, respectively. Sales and use tax collections were $44 million above Hits: 29
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf 268 405 4.6% PIT - Other 2,992 410 15.9% All Tobacco 1,190 -26 -2.1% All Other Tax 1,761 97 5.9% All Non-Tax 2,468 1,589 180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.05.2018 2 Hits: 29
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf in both years.  Borrow to fill FY 2016-17 deficit? Tobacco Fund and liquor.  FY 2017-18: severance tax, transfers, net operating losses.  Revenue options are limited.  Limited potential in further gaming expansion.  How quickly can  Baby Boom more pronounced in PA than US. Mid-Term: 5 - 10 Years.  Labor force may contract.  Tax burden falls on smaller cohort. Long-Term: 10+ Years.  Deaths exceed births.  Heavily dependent on international migration. Demographics Hits: 29
MTR-2017-09.pdf 2017-18, total General Fund revenues were $25.3 million (0.4 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Total tax revenues were $9.4 million (0.1 percent) above estimate and non-tax revenues were $15.8 million (34.5 percent) above estimate. As shown in the table below, two of the three Hits: 29
MTR-2015-09.pdf capture interstate migration patterns for calendar years 2012 and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania, more than five million federal tax returns were matched between the two years. The database of matched returns allows the IRS to identify a migrating taxpayer Hits: 29
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf or 0.4% of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) An overprediction of personal income tax (PIT) (-$156 million) and sales and use tax (SUT) (-$45 million) was more than offset by an underprediction of escheats ($94 million), corporate net income tax (CNIT) ($53 Hits: 28
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf official estimate by roughly $165 million if impacts related to COVID-19 are excluded. The overage was attributable to inheritance tax revenues ($101 million) and escheats collections ($118 million). Other revenue sources were relatively close to estimate. Table 2 (next page Notes: Millions of dollars. IFO Mid-Year Update released January 2020. GBO Budget released February 2020. SUT is sales-use tax. PIT is personal income tax. Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19 Independent Fiscal Office \| Revenue Update \| April 8, 2020 Independent Hits: 28
QRR_2013Q3.pdf million below estimate for the third quarter of calendar year 2013. 1 As shown by Table 1, corporate net income tax revenues were $25 million below estimate in the third quarter while sales and use tax and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by $15 million and $13 million, respectively. All other General Fund revenues Hits: 28
QRE_FY14-15.pdf 15 General Fund Revenue Projection ($ millions) Revenue Source June 16 Projection 1 Adjustments for Statutory Changes Updated Projection Tax Revenue $28,882.9 $40.0 $28,922.9 Non-tax Revenue 562.6 471.6 1,034.2 Total 29,445.5 511.6 29,957.1 1 Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Hits: 28
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf appears to accelerate recently.  FY 17-18: hitting estimate except for JUA transfer.  FY 18-19: moderately strong tax revenue growth. Final estimate to be released June 15.  May and June: large CNIT payments.  Will sales tax maintain recent strength?  Corporate Tax Bulletin. Potential revenue package. IFO Initial Estimate FY 2018-19 May.01.2018 2 Hits: 28
MTR-2018-11.pdf for November and $338.9 million (2.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher Hits: 28
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf 5 percent of actual General Fund revenues. (See Tables 1 and 2, final columns.) While corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues exceeded estimate, sales and use tax (SUT) revenues fell short of estimate. The underprediction error for CNIT was partly attributable Hits: 27
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The brief divides economic development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for total incentives claimed or awarded for each fiscal year. The estimates represent a mix of conventions and data sources. Most tax credit data were provided by the Department of Revenue and reflect the utilization of tax credits (i.e., the application Hits: 27
QRR_2015Q3.pdf revenues for the third quarter of 2015 were $74 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $27 million below estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $17 million below estimate and personal income tax revenues were $31 million above estimate. All other General Fund Hits: 27
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Corporate profits are domestic, non-financial profits only. Wages vs Tax Revenue Growth June 11, 2019 4 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Wage Growth Tax Revenue Growth strong profits internet sales income shifting +2.7 ppt difference ~+$860 million Avg. Growth Rates wages = 3.3% Hits: 27
MTR-2019-07.pdf Fund collections were $2,329.2 million and were $90.8 million (4.1 percent) higher than July 2018. The tax revenue sources with the largest increase from the prior year include corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and inheritance tax. Sales and use tax (SUT) and realty transfer tax declined due to Hits: 27
MTR-2018-12.pdf for December and $419.7 million (2.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher Hits: 27
MTR-2018-10.pdf 8 million (1.9 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). October shortfalls in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and non-tax collections were partially offset by overages in gross receipts tax, sales and use tax (SUT) and inheritance tax. October CNIT Hits: 27
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review:  Identify the purpose for which the tax credit was established.  Is the Hits: 26
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 1/24/2019 0 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review: ▪ Identify the purpose for which the tax credit was established. ▪ Is the credit accomplishing Hits: 26
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf Tax Credit Reviews Historic Preservation Film Production New Jobs Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2019 Act 48 of 2017 – Tax Credit Duties The tax credit review:  Identify the purpose for which the tax credit was established.  Is the Hits: 26
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf during next two years? ▪ Many analysts believe very likely \| this forecast assumes stagnation What caused the surge in April income tax revenues? ▪ Data suggest much of it is capital gains income ▪ Stock market contraction implies it is temporary What will the 1.8 1.5 4.2 Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 Expanded Child Tax Credit -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Paycheck Protection Program 20.7 10.0 0.0 30.7 Total Individual Hits: 26
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf due to the transfer of funds directly to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups are based on the tax returns or reported income levels of stimulus fund recipients across four income groups: (1) below $25,000; (2) $25,000 provisions: ▪ Economic Impact Payments (EIPs), commonly referred to as stimulus checks. ▪ Expanded unemployment compensation (UC) programs. ▪ Expansion of the Child Tax Credit for tax year (TY) 2021. ▪ Emergency allotments to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The analysis concludes with a Hits: 26
QRR_2016Q1.pdf revenues for the first quarter of 2016 were $195 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $28 million above estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $25 million above estimate and personal income tax revenues were $26 million above estimate. All other General Fund Hits: 26
MTR-2019-01.pdf for January and $320.6 million (1.8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Sales and use tax (SUT) came in above estimate for the month while corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) came in below estimate. Other tax and non-tax revenues came in above projections Hits: 26
MTR-2018-1.pdf million ($75 million more than projected) from the auction of newly authorized mini-casino licenses. As a result, total non-tax revenues exceeded estimate by $260 million in January. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments for the month outpaced the estimate by $34 million. The strength in collections was entirely attributable to final Hits: 26
MTR-2018-02.pdf updated official estimate. February General Fund collections were $158 million (4.6 percent) above estimate. The three largest sources of tax revenue (personal income tax, sales and use tax and corporate net income tax) were all above estimate. Personal income tax (PIT) withholding payments exceeded Hits: 26
MTR-2017-12.pdf 2 December collections were $67 million (2.4%) above estimate primarily due to stronger than anticipated collections in personal income tax (PIT) estimated payments ($80 million above estimate, 49.4%) and sales and use tax (SUT) - non-motor ($33 million, 4.4%). This strength was partially offset by unexpected weakness in corporate net income tax Hits: 26
MTR-2017-11.pdf FY 2017 -18, total General Fund revenues were $203.1 million (1.8 percent) above the IFO’s official estimate. Tax revenues were $58.5 million (0.5 percent) above estimate and non-tax revenues were $144.5 million (181.1 percent) above estimate. The outperformance of General Fund revenues compared to the IFO Hits: 26
QRR_2017Q2.pdf 7 million for the fiscal year-to -date (See page 2.). Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by a combined $553.1 million for the second quarter and below estimate by $820.2 Total General Fund $9,275.6 $9,794.0 -$518.4 $31,669.7 $32,510.4 -$840.7 Total Tax Revenue 8,697.5 9,256.3 -558.8 30,753.0 31,674.9 -921.9 Total Corporation Taxes Hits: 25
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf 268 405 4.6% PIT - Other 2,992 410 15.9% All Tobacco 1,190 -26 -2.1% All Other Tax 1,761 97 5.9% All Non-Tax 2,468 1,589 180.8% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. PIT is personal income tax. June.04.2018 3 Hits: 25
MTR-2019-03.pdf are $381.9 million (1.6%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). Overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and insurance premiums tax offset shortfalls in gross receipts tax, cigarette tax and non-tax revenues. PIT collections were above estimate by $10.0 Hits: 25
MTR-2019-02.pdf for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly surplus was largely due to higher than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. Monthly CNIT collections were above estimate ($41.4 million). The surplus was due to both final ($24.7 by $232.7 million, driven by both final ($109.7 million) and estimated ($123.0 million) payments. Sales and use tax (SUT) came in over estimate ($6.6 million) for the month, with lower than anticipated motor vehicle collections (-$2.4 Hits: 25
MTR-2018-06.pdf Excluding the JUA transfer, collections for the year were generally consistent with the IFO official estimate. June corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments were $26 million (-4.4 percent) below estimate. Final payments came in above estimate (8.3 percent), while short of estimate mainly due to final payments, which were $176 million below estimate for the year. Sales and use tax (SUT) collections exceeded estimate by $37 million in June. Non-motor collections drove the surplus (5.2 percent), while motor Hits: 25
Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $74 million (1.8%) as gains in corporate tax receipts more than offset declines in other tax revenue sources.  Corporation tax revenues increased by $95 million (4.2% Hits: 24
QRR_2017Q1.pdf 3 million for the fiscal year‐to‐ date (See page 2.). Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were above estimate by a combined $59.0 million for the first quarter and below estimate by $267.2 Total General Fund $8,939.3 $8,929.1 $10.2 $22,394.1 $22,716.4 -$322.3 Total Tax Revenue 8,747.7 8,749.7 -2.0 22,055.5 22,418.6 -363.1 Total Corporation Taxes Hits: 24
QRR_2015Q4.pdf revenues for the fourth quarter of 2015 were $94 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $20 million below estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $7 million above estimate and personal income tax revenues were $15 million above estimate. All other General Fund Hits: 24
QRR_2015Q1.pdf revenues for the first quarter of 2015 were $173 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $158 million above estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $20 million below estimate and personal income tax revenues were $31 million above estimate. All other General Fund Hits: 24
MTR-2018-05.pdf 197 million (-7.4 percent) below estimate but are roughly meeting estimate for the fiscal year. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded estimate by $50 million. Collections from motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle sales tax were over estimate by $10 million and $39 million, respectively. Personal income tax (PIT) May collections were $10 million above Hits: 24
MTR-2018-03.pdf For the month of March, General Fund collections were $121 million (-2.7 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded estimate by $17 million, with a small shortfall in motor vehicle receipts (-$6 million) more than offset by an overage in non-motor collections ($22 million). Corporate net income tax payments were below estimate by $80 million (-15.8 percent). The shortfall was entirely attributable to final payments, which were Hits: 24
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up well, and actual revenues and non-recurring monies from casino license auctions. If we also control for what appears to be accelerated personal income tax payments (~$150 million), then the overage is roughly $40 million, and it is largely attributable to inheritance tax ($30 million Hits: 24
2002_dbdc_report.pdf most recent actuarial valuations, both SERS and PSERS were “fully funded” with the assets in excess of the accrued liabilities. Tax Sheltered Annuity Plans (IRC 457 and IRC 403(b)) Act 81 of 1987 authorized the SERS Board of Trustees to to participate in a deferred compensation program, through which they may voluntarily defer receipt of compensation and build, on a tax deferred basis, supplemental retirement savings to augment their retirement benefits. The deferred compensation program, which is a type of defined Hits: 24
Tax_Modernization_Mar_2024.pdf Matthew Knittel, Director Tax Modernization & Reform House Finance Subcommittee March 1, 2024 First, Some Technical Data Notes Data Tabs are for Tax Year 2019 (in $ billions) Source: all tax returns filed with PA Dept of Revenue (includes non-residents) Tax Modernization & Reform Hits: 23
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2024.pdf This report provides an overview of statewide school district (SD) property tax collections as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) and an outlook for current and future collections based on also included on the next page. The table below displays recent data and the IFO forecast of (1) SD property tax collections and (2) the Act 1 index, which limits the rate at which schools can raise millage rates. Recent collection Hits: 23
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf Hughes: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates related to school district property tax rebates for eligible homesteads. Specifically, your letter requested the following estimates:  The number of properties that may qualify as homestead properties. 1  The statewide average school district property tax paid by homestead property owners.  The statewide median school district property tax paid by homestead property owners.  The Hits: 23
MTR-2018-04.pdf For the month of April, General Fund collections were $325 million (-8.0 percent) below estimate. Overall sales and use tax revenues exceeded estimate by $9 million. Collections from motor vehicle ($6 million) and non-motor vehicle ($3 million) sales were slightly over estimate. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments were below estimate by $31 million (-11.2 percent) in April. The shortfall was entirely attributable to final Hits: 23
MSC_March_31_2021.pdf nearly all other economic indicators strong  Down 441k jobs in February from prior year  Positives: housing market, sales tax revenues show strong growth Minimum wage, PIT changes and combined reporting/rate reduction  Minimum wage impact looks very different 1.4 SNAP Benefits 0.9 0.6 0.3 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 6.3 14.7 Child Tax Credit Awards 0.0 0.0 3.6 spread through year Total 43.6 13.9 25.7 Other Federal Hits: 23
MRU-2020-3.pdf fiscal year) and (3) $60 million that will shift to fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $33.4 million (-0.1 percent) below estimate through March. After of the virus, FYTD collections exceed the IFO estimate by roughly $165 million (0.7 percent). March corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections were short $64.3 million, split almost evenly between final and estimated payments (-$31.9 million and -$32 Hits: 23
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf 2,984 $3,882 $3,938 $2,656 $5,982 $5,643 $3,363 $3,680 $45,201 Total Corporation Taxes 185 120 1,045 180 170 973 219 194 2,873 846 477 502 7,783 Corporate Net Income 181 4 -443 499 Financial Institutions 1 2 11 1 1 8 1 10 290 7 3 10 345 Total Consumption Taxes 1,347 1,307 1,287 1,415 1,247 1,326 1,367 1,104 1,199 1,224 Hits: 23
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf would also like to make some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based budget (PBB) plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY 2018-19 Through January, actual revenues exceed the IFO official revenue estimate by $321 January, revenues were roughly $100 million below estimate due to a shortfall in the fourth estimated payment for personal income tax. The year-to- date net overage is attributable to three sources: sales and use tax ($205 million over estimate), corporate Hits: 23
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf 792 total 42 $9,645 $3,383 $13,028 look at a full year “typical” impact Direct Impact: PA Sales Tax Revenues (exclude autos) October 3, 2023 4 Avg Growth: 18-19 to 22-23 sales tax 6.5% core CPI 3.8% premium +2.7% typical +1.0% FY 22-23 $12.7 billion +$0.9 Hits: 23
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf recipients are receiving 1 The estimate excludes any impact the pandemic has on unreported labor income. Recent IRS tax gap studies find that roughly one-half of self-employment income is not reported. See https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf dollar billions. Self-employment estimate excludes distributions to S corporation shareholders because owners do not pay self-employment tax on distributions. It also excludes any reductions in unreported self-employment income. See footnote 1 in text. Economic Update \| Page 3 regular Hits: 23
SR2014-03-presentation.pdf policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014 2 Independent Fiscal Office Scope and assumptions. Potential consolidation savings and costs. • Administrative savings, property tax relief, state funding, salary standardization and debt service. Calculation of real estate tax millage. • Implications for taxpayers. 16.Dec.2014 3 Presentation Overview District-wide tax base with uniform tax rates. Focus on Hits: 22
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf Revenue Analyst II Ms. Hall joined the IFO in May 2019. Primary responsibilities include forecasting corporate net income tax revenues, business- and economic-related research, performance-based budgeting initiatives and various other projects including the Special Education Funding Formula survey. Mathieu in June 2016. He is the primary analyst responsible for all reports and analyses related to local property taxes and natural gas. Other responsibilities include forecasting revenues for gross receipts and inheritance taxes and performance-based budgeting for agencies such as Hits: 22
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf market and/or housing market bubble? Many unusual factors impact FY 2021-22 revenues ▪ Removal of federal monies \| behavioral impacts \| tax shifting May 26, 2021 1 Key Assumptions No new COVID restrictions moving forward ▪ No new variants that require widespread mitigation fully reopen \| childcare available Federal programs expire as scheduled ▪ Enhanced UC ends first week of September ▪ Potential infrastructure package and tax changes excluded Other miscellaneous assumptions ▪ Supply constraints ease during next several months ▪ Inflation is temporary and peaks in late summer Hits: 22
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf inferred from other data sources. Royalty income is taxable and recipients must report those amounts on the Pennsylvania personal income tax return (Form PA-40, line 6). Unfortunately, royalty income is not reported separately on the tax return, but is combined with rental, patent and copyright income. However, given (1) the relatively recent surge in natural gas Hits: 22
QRR_2017Q3.pdf 4 million for the third quarter of 2017. (See page 2.) Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were above estimate by a com- bined $1.1 million for the third quarter. General Fund revenues from all Total General Fund $6,933.1 $6,907.7 $25.4 $6,933.1 $6,907.7 $25.4 Total Tax Revenue 6,871.3 6,861.9 9.4 6,871.3 6,861.9 9.4 Total Corporation Taxes Hits: 22
QRR_2016Q3.pdf the third quarter of 2016 were $206.7 million below estimate. Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were below estimate (-$201.0 million). Total General Fund revenues from all other sources were below estimate (-$5.7 Total General Fund $6,614.5 $6,821.2 -$206.7 $6,614.5 $6,821.2 -$206.7 Total Tax Revenue 6,555.5 6,751.1 -195.6 6,555.5 6,751.1 -195.6 Total Corporation Taxes Hits: 22
QRR_2014Q4.pdf revenues for the fourth quarter of 2014 were $289 million above estimate. 1 Table 1 shows that corporate net income tax collections were $58 million above estimate, sales and use tax deposits were $27 million above estimate and personal income tax revenues were $17 million above estimate. All other General Fund Hits: 22
MTR-2019-08.pdf in August were $67.1 million (3.2 percent) above estimate. The overage was largely attributable to sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal-year-to- date (FYTD) collections are short of estimate by $24.8 million (-0.5 percent). August SUT Hits: 22
MTR-2018-09.pdf year-to-date (FYTD). General Fund collections for September were above estimate primarily due to overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and non-tax collections. September CNIT collections were above estimate ($96.3 million) due to higher than anticipated estimated Hits: 22
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf of the fiscal year, these payments are up 17.0 percent over the prior year.  Gains in realty transfer taxes, which are up 18.1 percent from the prior year.  Gains in escheats. While claim payments are meeting estimate growth rate of 2.0 percent. Technical factors, such as the complete phase‐out of the capital stock and franchise tax, restrain revenues and reduce the underlying base growth rate from 3.3 to 2.0 percent. Long‐Term Budget Outlook Hits: 22
SR2017-05.pdf 2015 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau. Note: household income in this table excludes capital gains. The personal income tax (PIT) impact assumes that the entire amount of household income is subject to tax. The PIT estimates in this table should be viewed as a maximum for the median incomes listed because income for Hits: 21
Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $134 million (7.3%), due to strong corporate net income tax and sales and use tax receipts.  Corporate net income tax collections increased by $42 million (115%). Approximately $21 million Hits: 21
REU-2019-12.pdf for the fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues. CNIT collections were $526.5 million for the month, which was 3.6 percent below estimate. The monthly Hits: 21
REU-2019-10.pdf for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was mainly due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. October SUT collections were $41.0 million over estimate (4.1 percent Hits: 21
Response-Letter-05-13-2019.pdf 694 696 699 702 705 708 711 PTRR Payments 6 263 259 255 251 248 244 240 Act 1 Property Tax Subsidies 7 533 533 530 530 530 530 530 School District Property Tax 8 14,546 14,877 15,285 15,700 16,195 16,730 17,315 Homesteads Only 9 7,855 Hits: 21
QRR_2016Q4.pdf 2016 and $332.5 million for the fiscal year-to-date. Corporate net income, sales and use and personal income tax revenues were below estimate by a combined $125.2 million for the fourth quarter and $326.2 million for the Total General Fund $6,840.3 $6,966.1 -$125.8 $13,454.8 $13,787.2 -$332.5 Total Tax Revenue 6,752.3 6,917.8 -165.4 13,307.8 13,668.8 -361.1 Total Corporation Taxes Hits: 21
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf in dollar millions. Main elements driving the structural imbalance are unchanged.  Demographic trends affect revenues and expenditures.  Slow tax base erosion and modest revenue growth.  Non-discretionary spending continues to drive expenditure growth. Recent policy changes (partially) addressed 105 5,894 -211 4.7% 1.1% Personal Income 6,808 6,723 -85 2.1% 0.9% Other Tax Revenue 2,011 2,016 5 10.1% 10.4% Non-Tax Revenue 203 220 17 -3.3% 4.8% Hits: 21
perez ppt.pdf is solid – Expenditures are stable – Budget gaps are few in FY 2012 Overview (continued) – States face ongoing budget challenges. – State tax collections remain below pre-recession levels – Officials are concerned about the strength of economic growth – Questions remain about the impact deficit reduction on state budgets – The total state budget gap: $527.7 billion (FY 2008- FY 2013 est.) FY 2012 Tax Collections (Compared with the Latest Estimate) Personal Income Tax* General Sales Tax Corporate Income Tax Above Estimate On Target Below Hits: 21
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx Tax Credit Reviews Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Mobile Telecom Broadband Research and Development Keystone Innovation Zones DCED PBB Highlights Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 23, 2020 2/27/2020 0 Tax Credit Reviews - Overview Tax credit reviews have four objectives ▪ Identify the purpose for which the tax credit was establishe d Hits: 21
MTR-2018-07.pdf 12 million (0.5 percent) above estimate for July, primarily due to higher than anticipated motor vehicle sales and use tax (SUT, $17 million), non-motor SUT ($7 million) and insurance premiums tax ($20 million) collections that were partially offset by lower than anticipated escheats collections (-$22 million). Personal income tax (PIT) and Hits: 21
MTR-2017-04.pdf date revenues were $25.82 billion, a decrease of $73.1 million (-0.3%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Apr-17 $3,429 $3,214 $215 Growth -6.2% -6.1% -8.3% FYTD $25,823 $25,270 Hits: 21
MTR-2016-11.pdf date revenues were $10.84 billion, an increase of $160.9 million (1.5%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Nov-16 $1,987 $1,941 $47 Growth 9.9% 8.0% 298.7% FYTD $10,836 $10,727 Hits: 21
MTR-2016-10.pdf date revenues were $8.85 billion, a decrease of $18.4 million (-0.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Oct-16 $2,235 $2,231 $4 Growth 4.8% 5.8% -81.7% FYTD $8,849 $8,786 Hits: 21
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf tobacco and IPT underperform.  Base growth rate for FYTD is negative (-1.0%).  Net revenue gains from transfers / tax law changes. The Big Picture 2 02.May.2017 Change to PA Economic Forecast Growth Rates or Change 2016 2017 All growth rates are year-over-year. Wage growth for 2017 Q1 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes Hits: 21
IFO_Testimony_CR_June_29_2023.pdf the state. Advocates assert that the filing method reduces a firm’s ability to shift profits to low or no tax states through related-party transactions and is subject to less manipulation by firms. The figure and first table show states that use combined reporting and the highest corporate net income tax (CNIT) rate levied for 2023 by that state. ▪ 44 states levy a CNIT, and 27 states use the combined reporting Hits: 21
RTR-2014-06.pdf the prior fiscal year-to-date. Additional information can be found in the table below and on the following pages. • Tax revenues for the fiscal year increased by $31 million (0.1%) compared to the prior year. Corporate net income tax receipts increased by $78 million (3.2%), and capital stock and franchise tax collections dropped by $282 million (-46.9% Hits: 20
Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf period, General Fund collections increased by 1.3% over the same period in the prior year. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source September 2012 FY 12-13 to 27.2 $34.2 $34.2 $89.3 percent change 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 3.6% All Other Tax Revenue -$19.8 -$18.9 -$18.9 $29.3 percent change -8.8% 2.9% -2.9% 1.1% Tax Hits: 20
Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf 2.5% over the most recent three- month period. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages. • Tax revenues declined by $79 million (-3.0%). A decrease in corporation tax collections of $138 million (-21.3%) offset increases in other tax revenues. For the fiscal year, tax revenues increased by Hits: 20
REU-2020-02.pdf fiscal-year- to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was a result of stronger than expected collections in corporate net income tax (CNIT), gross receipts tax (GRT) and personal income tax (PIT). The $36.1 million February GRT surplus was largely due to firms making early Hits: 20
Public_Data-General_Fund.xlsx Fiscal Year SUMMARY \| DETAIL - CORPORATE TAXES \| DETAIL - CONSUMPTION TAXES \| DETAIL - OTHER TAXES \| DETAIL - NON-TAX REVENUES (dollar amounts in millions) \| (dollar amounts in millions) \| (dollar amounts in millions) \| (dollar Hits: 20
MTR-2019-06.pdf estimate for the year. The FY overage was primarily generated by stronger than anticipated collections related to corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) annual payments and licenses and fees revenue associated with gaming expansion. The surplus in PIT Hits: 20
MTR-2019-05.pdf for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was the result of strong collections in sales and use tax (SUT) countered by weaker than expected collections in personal income tax (PIT). SUT collections surpassed the monthly forecast by $56.2 million. This was a result of robust non-motor collections Hits: 20
MTR-2019-04.pdf 1%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by unusually strong personal income tax (PIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. PIT collections were above estimate by $313.7 million for the month Hits: 20
MTR-2018-08.pdf year-to-date (FYTD). August General Fund collections were above estimate primarily due to higher than anticipated sales and use tax (SUT, $31.6 million) and corporate net income tax (CNIT, $27.2 million) collections that were partially offset by lower than anticipated escheats collections (-$28.4 million). FYTD SUT Hits: 20
MTR-2016-09.pdf date reve- nues were $6.61 billion, a decrease of $121.2 million (-1.8%) from the prior year. General Tax Non-Tax Sept-16 $2,627 $2,625 $1 Growth -3.9% -3.1% -95.6% FYTD $6,614 $6,555 $59 Hits: 20
MTR-2016-06.pdf date revenues were $30.90 billion, an increase of $309.1 million (1.0%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue June-16 $3,061 $3,031 $30 Growth 5.0% 3.8% 969.2% FYTD $30,902 $30,258 Hits: 20
MRU-2023-03.pdf The IFO monthly estimate was $5.3 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor.) March corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections were $791.9 million, which surpassed the estimate by $216.9 million (37.7%), due to higher than 8 million, 46.0% and +$134.1, 34.0%, respectively). The overage in final payments likely reflects early payments for tax year 2022 (typically paid in April and May). FYTD CNIT collections are $3.83 billion, and are $691.9 million Hits: 20
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf PA Economic Positives Cash Income (CY 2020) +8.3% highest since 1998 Home Values +10.8% highest since 2005 Sales Tax Revenues +5.4% online sales tax doubles Credit Card Debt -11.6% 70% of impact payments saved or pay down debt S&P 500 Index +12 Hits: 20
2004_srpvffinal.pdf 1895. Their development at that time followed the passage in 1889 of a state law which levied a 2 percent tax on foreign fire insurance premiums to provide benefits to protect volunteer firefighters and their families. As of calendar year 2002 may provide to its members. STATE AID State aid revenues distributed annually to FRAs are derived from a 2 percent tax imposed on the gross premiums of fire insurance policies written in Pennsylvania by foreign companies. The term “foreign fire insurance Hits: 20
RTR-2014-04.pdf of $80 million for liquor store profits that occurred in March this year but normally occurs in June. Personal income tax withholding remittances were also artificially inflated by roughly $100-$105 million because of a due date falling on April 30 year, but May 1 st last year. Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Total tax revenues declined by $143 million (-4.2%). Over the past three months, revenues declined by $137 million (-1.5%) compared Hits: 19
RTR-2013-10.pdf million (1.1%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $54 million (2.7%). The largest increases were in the sales and use tax ($28 million) and the personal income tax ($29 million).  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $3 million (2 Hits: 19
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdf attributable to weak quarterly and annual payments, which are motivated by business profits, capital gains, rents and dividends. Data for tax year 2016 show actual declines in all of those income sources, which is highly unusual for a non-recession year. The SUT overprediction (-$236 million) was attributable to weak non-motor vehicle sales tax collections. Fiscal Year 2017-18 The difference between actual collections and the IFO official estimate was -$178 million, or -0 Hits: 19
Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf by 5.5% and 2.0% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source October 2012 FY 12-13 to 23.8 $58.0 $50.9 $108.6 percent change 28.1% 13.1% 12.5% 4.4% All Other Tax Revenue $4.0 -$14.8 -$16.4 $16.7 percent change 1.8% -1.7% -2.4% 0.6% Tax Hits: 19
Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf million (1.2%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues decreased by $30 million (-1.7%). An increase in sales and use tax collections of $39 million (5.3%) partially offset decreases in personal income tax revenues totaling $75 million (-9.8%). For Hits: 19
Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $162.4 million (5.0%), led by strong gains in the annual payments made with the filing of personal income tax returns.  Corporate net income tax receipts increased by $53 million (17.1%). For the fiscal year, the revenue gain Hits: 19
REU-2019-11.pdf percent) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by stronger than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) non-motor and personal income tax (PIT) withholding collections, which were partially offset by weak SUT motor vehicle tax Hits: 19
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf Tax Credit Reviews Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board April 26, 2021 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 3 Theme: improving the lives of PA residents ▪ NAP – incentivizes investment in distressed communities ▪ REAP – reduces Hits: 19
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf and Development ............................................................................. 33 Activity 7: Plant Industry and Health .................................................................................................. 37 Activity 8: Administration ................................................................................................................... 39 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 43 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ....................................................... 43 Agency Response .......................................................................................................................... 44 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 19
MTR-2017-07.pdf 64% of total), transfer receipts (17%), dividends, interest and rent (19%). Net earnings include wages and salaries (less social insurance tax contributions) and business profits. Transfer receipts include government assistance to individuals such as Social Security and medical benefits. In the further boost to wage growth during the next few quarters. PA PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH STEADY General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul-17 $2,085 $2,063 $22 Growth 5.7% 6.7% -42.4% FYTD $2 Hits: 19
MTR-2017-03.pdf date revenues were $22.39 billion, an increase of $153.9 million (0.7%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Mar-17 $4,422 $4,376 $46 Growth -1.4% -0.4% -51.1% FYTD $22,394 $22,055 Hits: 19
MTR-2017-02.pdf date revenues were $17.97 billion, an increase of $218.3 million (1.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Feb-17 $1,875 $1,803 $72 Growth 1.1% -0.9% 102.6% FYTD $17,973 $17,680 Hits: 19
MTR-2017-01.pdf date revenues were $16.10 billion, an increase of $197.8 million (1.2%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jan-17 $2,643 $2,569 $73 Growth 5.7% 5.6% 10.9% FYTD $16,097 $15,877 Hits: 19
MTR-2016-12.pdf date revenues were $13.45 billion, an increase of $54.2 million (0.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Dec-16 $2,618 $2,581 $37 Growth -3.9% -4.3% 27.5% FYTD $13,455 $13,308 Hits: 19
MTR-2016-08.pdf revenues were $3.99 bil- lion, a decrease of $14.8 million (-0.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Aug-16 $2,015 $1,996 $20 Growth 7.9% 8.0% 0.2% FYTD $3,988 $3,930 Hits: 19
MTR-2015-07.pdf S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16-19 51.9% 48.8% 44.4% 40.9% Monthly Trends Report General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jul 2015 $2,135 $2,097 $38 Growth -4.9% 5.1% -84.9% FYTD $2,135 $2,097 Hits: 19
MRU_2024_3.pdf 6.28 billion, $298 million (+5.0%) above the IFO’s official estimate, driven by higher than expected gross receipts tax (GRT) collections. The IFO estimate for March was $8 million lower than the administration’s recertified estimate. Collections for March date (FYTD) revenues of $32.80 billion are $284 million (0.9%) higher than anticipated. Revenue highlights for the major tax types include: ▪ Monthly corporate income tax collections were $686 million, $30 million (-4.2%) below projections, due to estimated payments Hits: 19
MRU_2023_09.pdf 4.06 billion, $163.6 million (-3.9%) below the IFO’s official estimate, driven by shortfalls in personal income tax (PIT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and inheritance tax. (The IFO monthly estimate was $23.4 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor Hits: 19
MRU_2023_02.pdf FYTD). (The IFO monthly estimate was $55.2 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections for the month were $207.5 million, which surpassed the estimate by $127.5 million (159.4%), due to an overage in final payments (+$100.8 million, 201.6%), which was likely the result of early payments for tax year 2022. FYTD CNIT collections are $3.04 billion, and are $475.0 million (18.6%) above the forecast due Hits: 19
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf Wharton Budget Model 3 Debt has a Snowball Effect on GDP Penn Wharton Budget Model 4 Example: PWBM Model with Tax Module Penn Wharton Budget Model 5 We always validate before projecting forward: A few examples 6 Education (1996 – 2070) Penn Penn Wharton Budget Model 10 Census Data Microsimulation Marriage (1996 – 2070) Penn Wharton Budget Model 11 Census Data Microsimulation “The Tax Cut and Jobs Act” Static Analysis 12 Revenue Impact Revenue Effect 2018-2027 (billions of $) Revenue Effect 2018-2040 (billions Hits: 18
RTR-2014-10.pdf to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 4.1%.  Tax revenues increased by $144 million (7.0%) over the prior year and by $420 million (5.2%) over the prior Hits: 18
RTR-2013-12.pdf million (0.5%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues decreased by $53 million (-2.2%). The largest decrease over December 2012 occurred in the other corporate taxes (-$66 million).  Other corporate taxes decreased $169 million (-45.4%) fiscal year-to-date driven mostly by the continued Hits: 18
Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf 8% over the most recent three-month period. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $99 million (5.5%). An increase in personal income tax collections of $117 million (16.9%) offset decreases in corporate tax revenues totaling $34 million (-30.9%). For the most Hits: 18
Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf in the prior year. For the twelve month period, General Fund collections increased by 1.0%. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source August 2012 FY 12-13 to 0.1 $7.0 $44.1 $84.4 percent change -0.4% 9.5% 11.7% 3.5% All Other Tax Revenue -$0.7 $0.9 -$0.7 $59.6 percent change -0.3% 0.2% -0.1% 2.3% Tax Hits: 18
REU-2020-01.pdf by $195.4 million (1.1 percent). The monthly shortfall was a result of lower than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections, which were partially offset by higher than expected sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. CNIT collections of $92 Hits: 18
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf Mastriano: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the annual loss of tax revenue associated with the elimination of property taxes – imposed by all political subdivisions - on residents that are age 65 or older and have an annual household income of Hits: 18
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf Three separate excise taxes could be levied on cigarette sales in Pennsylvania: a federal tax ($1.01 per pack), a state tax ($2.60 per pack) and a local tax for sales that occur in Hits: 18
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. PPP Detail: Loans by Size, Type of Firm and Sector The SBA publishes state-specific data on its website PPP might have temporarily preserved roughly 63,000 to 126,000 jobs at small businesses (excludes non-profits). PPP Potential Tax Implications On May 2, 2020 the IRS issued Notice 2020-32, which prohibits firms from deducting expenses that were covered Hits: 18
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf crisis.  Persists even when PA economy returns to “normal” growth. Demographic trends and budget implications.  Aging populace.  Tax base erosion and expenditure cost-drivers. Short-term revenue outlook.  FY 2016-17 revenue shortfall.  Moderate growth rate different data source. Share is percentage outflow. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. Persistent Tax Base Erosion 7/14/2017 16 Personal Income Tax.  Wage income less important. Larger share of income not subject Hits: 18
MTR-2019-09.pdf million for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly outcome was due to stronger than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and escheat collections. September CNIT revenues outperformed the forecast by $40.1 million due to overages in both final Hits: 18
MTR-2016-04.pdf date revenues were $25.90 billion, an increase of $181.1 million (0.7%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Apr-16 $3,656 $3,422 $235 Growth -8.7% -3.8% -47.3% FYTD $25,897 $25,322 Hits: 18
MTR-2016-02.pdf date revenues were $17.75 billion, an increase of $313.9 million (1.8%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Feb-16 $1,855 $1,819 $36 Growth 6.4% 5.7% 62.9% FYTD $17,754 $17,508 Hits: 18
MRU_2023_10.pdf 25 billion, $116.7 million (+3.7%) above the IFO’s official estimate, driven by overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT), personal income tax (PIT) and inheritance tax, which were partially offset by shortfalls in escheats. (The IFO October estimate was $3.2 million Hits: 18
MRU_2023_08.pdf 2.90 billion, $8.7 million (0.3%) above the IFO’s official estimate, with overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and inheritance tax offseting shortfalls in sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). (The IFO monthly estimate was $35.8 Hits: 18
MRU_2023_05.pdf monthly estimate was $38.8 million higher than the estimate certified by the Governor.) Weaker than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) final payments and personal income tax (PIT) withholding payments were the primary reason monthly collections fell short of the estimate. CNIT collections for the month were Hits: 18
MRU-2023-04.pdf than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The monthly overage is primarily due to stronger than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT). Monthly CNIT collections for April were $874.0 million, which exceeded the forecast by $324.0 million (58.9% Hits: 18
MRU-2023-01.pdf would normally have been receipted in January will be shifted to February ($69 million is withholding). January sales and use tax (SUT) collections of $1.26 billion were $63.9 million (5.3%) over estimate due mostly to non-motor vehicle million (7.1%) above the forecast due to non-motor vehicle (+$547.9 million, 7.8%) revenues. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections for January came in at $166.8 million, which surpassed the monthly estimate by $11.8 million (7 Hits: 18
MRU-2022-06.pdf billion, which was $6.22 billion (14.8%) above estimate. This result was due to dramatic overages in almost every tax type, including personal income tax (PIT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT). June PIT collections were $1.64 billion, $191 Hits: 18
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf and expenditures?  What is the likely path of the Pennsylvania economy over the next six years?  Will future tax revenues be sufficient to fund the policy choices reflected in the FY 2012-13 budget?  Are current tax and spending policies fiscally sustainable? The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 3 15.Nov.2012 What is the Purpose?  Hits: 18
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf Annual Tax Credit Reviews Manufacturing PA Resource Manufacturing Rural Jobs and Investment Waterfront Development Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 10, 2023 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 5 Statute: Did the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent? ▪ Manufacturing – Unlikely due to low level Hits: 17
RTR-2014-12.pdf to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 5.6%.  Tax revenues increased by $287 million (12.2%) for the month and $746 million (6.1%) for the fiscal year. Some Hits: 17
RTR-2014-11.pdf to-date. Excluding July’s $227 million in one- time transfers from special funds and a reported $100 million inheritance tax payment in October, fiscal year-to-date growth is 3.7%.  Tax revenues increased by $38 million (2.3%) over the prior year and $459 million (4.7%) over the prior fiscal Hits: 17
RTR-2014-02.pdf 6%) above the prior fiscal year-to-date. Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Tax revenues increased by $4 million (0.3%) over February 2013 and $121 million (0.8%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date.  Total corporate taxes decreased by $6 million (-9.8%) for the month. Insurance premiums tax revenues were $6 million (55.5%) higher than Hits: 17
RTR-2014-01.pdf million (0.6%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Tax revenues increased by $9 million (0.4%). Increases in corporate taxes and sales tax were offset by a decline in personal income tax.  Sales and use tax collections increased by Hits: 17
RTR-2013-11.pdf million (1.1%) above the previous fiscal year. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $34 million (2.0%). The largest increases were in the sales and use tax ($14 million) and the personal income tax ($9 million).  Sales and use tax nonmotor vehicle deposits grew by $21 Hits: 17
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed property tax rebate for homeowners in certain age and income ranges. The specified age and income ranges are as follows:  Homeowner 000; and  Homeowner age 65 or older with household income less than $70,000. The proposal provides a property tax rebate of up to $5,000 to eligible homeowners based on age and income, not to exceed actual school district Hits: 17
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf IHS Global Insight and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 24 . Sept . 2013 5 Headwinds - Federal Policy Expiration of Payroll Tax Cut and the Sequester. o $5.3 billion reduction in 2013 PA Disposable Income. o Spending Sequester - $85 billion for data. Look at data from first quarter of FY 2013-14. 24 . Sept . 2013 10 Are PA Consumers Spending? Sales Taxes nearly one-third of General Fund. Non-Motor Sales Tax collections remain weak. o For first quarter of FY 2013- Hits: 17
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf 3.5% Personal Income 12,088 5.7% 12,662 4.8% Inheritance 984 12.1% 906 -7.9% Other Tax Revenue 4,034 -2.8% 3,981 -1.3% Non-Tax Revenue 1,107 117.4% 543 -50.9% Dollar amounts are in millions. One-time revenues ~+$630m 2015-16 2016- Hits: 17
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf Income and Jobs Composition Changes. Expenditure and Revenue Implications. • Expenditures Affected by Population Growth in Groups. • Aging Populace Contributes to Tax Base Erosion. 3 Today’s Presentation 12.May.2016 Demographic Trends All Projections from Penn State Data Center Reflects US 12.May.2016 +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income. • Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. • Wage income less important. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security. • Social Security income meant to be “supplemental.” • What Hits: 17
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf Job Creation. Spending patterns.  Service sector jobs. Slower growth. Housing pressures. Transition to local unit trends.  Earned income tax and property tax.  Focus on wage growth. August.08.2018 2 Good Morning & Today’s Presentation Established in 2011. Non-partisan analysis Hits: 17
MTR-2017-08.pdf local governments continue to devote more resources to education and treatment. The Pennsylvania Opioid Crisis General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Aug-17 $2,129 $2,086 $43 Growth 5.6% 4.5% 119.5% FYTD $4,214 $4,149 Hits: 17
MTR-2016-03.pdf date revenues were $22.24 billion, an increase of $529.0 million (2.4%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Mar-16 $4,486 $4,392 $94 Growth 5.0% 4.3% 57.2% FYTD $22,240 $21,901 Hits: 17
MTR-2015-10.pdf Social Security recipients are to receive a 2.0% COLA in 2017. October 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Oct-15 $2,132 $2,109 $23 Growth -4.9% -4.6% -27.8% FYTD $8,868 $8,764 $103 Growth 0.1% 2.6% -66.8% Dollar amounts are in millions. Tax Revenue The Commonwealth collected $2.13 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $109.9 million (-4 Hits: 17
MTR-2015-08.pdf activity. 2 Annual average growth since 2006. 3 Thousands of payroll jobs. August 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Aug-15 $1,868 $1,848 $20 Growth 4.3% 4.1% 23.7% FYTD $4,003 $3,945 $57 Growth -0.9% 4.6% -78.5% Dollar amounts are in millions. Tax Revenue The Commonwealth collected $1.87 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $76.4 million (4 Hits: 17
MRU_2024_1.pdf 91 billion, $30.3 million (-0.8%) below the IFO’s official estimate, driven by a shortfall in personal income tax (PIT) collections and partially offset by overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and Treasury collections. The IFO estimate for January was $104.9 million higher than Hits: 17
MRU_2024_04.pdf April were $5.69 billion, $43 million (+0.8%) above the IFO’s official estimate, driven by strength in inheritance tax and escheats collections that was partially offset by weakness in personal income tax (PIT) collections. The IFO estimate for April was $331 million higher than the administration’s recertified official estimate. April collections Hits: 17
MRU_2023_06.pdf 2.73 billion (6.5%) above estimate. The overage was primarily the result of higher than anticipated corporate net income tax (CNIT), non-motor sales and use tax (SUT) and Treasury collections. CNIT collections for June reached $1.02 billion, $259.6 million (34.3%) more than expected Hits: 17
MRU_2022_12.pdf was $109.9 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the shift of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December ($184 million was withholding). December personal income tax (PIT) collections of $1.43 billion exceeded the estimate by $206.3 million (16.8%). The overage in withholding ($154 Hits: 17
MRU_2021_11.pdf for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was primarily due to stronger than anticipated sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. Monthly SUT collections were $119.6 million (12.0%) over estimate, driven by strength in non-motor vehicle million (6.5%) due almost entirely to non-motor vehicle collections (+$293.0 million, 6.2%). November corporate net income tax (CNIT) revenues surpassed the forecast by $39.0 million (28.2%) due to final (+$21.5 million, 21.2%) and Hits: 17
MRU_2021_03.pdf revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was largely the result of higher than expected personal income tax (PIT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and inheritance tax collections. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund collections of $28.71 billion are $551.7 Hits: 17
MRU-2022-11.pdf was $72.9 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the delay of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December ($184 million is withholding). Monthly sales and use tax (SUT) collections of $1.12 billion were $56.6 million (5.3%) over estimate due predominantly to non-motor vehicle Hits: 17
MRU-2022-09.pdf lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The monthly overage can be attributed primarily to strong corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections. September CNIT revenues of $1.06 billion exceeded the estimate by $192.7 million (22.1%). Higher than Hits: 17
MRU-2021-12.pdf overage was primarily due to higher than expected collections in all three of the largest revenue sources: corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). Monthly CNIT revenues exceeded the forecast by $273.7 million (44.4%) due to Hits: 17
MRU-2021-06.pdf Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was mainly due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. Fiscal year 2020-21 General Fund collections were $40.39 billion, $1.95 billion (5.1%) higher than Hits: 17
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf or loss associated with the business operations of all members of the unitary group, and income is apportioned to the taxing jurisdiction based on the activity of the combined group within that jurisdiction. Those who support combined reporting note that:  the filing method reduces a firm’s ability to shift profits to low or no tax states through related-party transactions and is subject to less manipulation by firms;  it will “level the playing field Hits: 17
House Budget Hearing Request.pdf United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) provides state data on in and out migration by the age of the primary tax filer. These data may be utilized to estimate the income earners and dependents migrating in and out of the state questions, please do not hesitate to contact my office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director Enclosures 3 Table A Pennsylvania Federal Tax Returns by Age of Primary Income Filer and Domestic Migration from 2013 to 2014 Number of Federal Tax Returns in Hits: 17
TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf Annual Tax Credit Reviews Mixed-Use Development Brewers’ Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Educational Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 24, 2022 Tax Credit Reviews for Year 4 Statute: Did the tax credits accomplish their legislative intent? ▪ Mixed-Use – Qualified Yes, unclear if Hits: 16
RTR-2015-02.pdf 1,145 million (7.0%) higher than the prior year. However, after adjusting for one-time transfers, an unexpected inheritance tax payment and the timing of receipts, the year-to-date growth was $739 million (4.5%). Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Sales and use tax collections increased by $30 million (4.8%) for the month and $285 million (4.7%) for the fiscal year-to- Hits: 16
RTR-2014-09.pdf s $227 million in one-time transfers from special funds, the fiscal year-to-date growth rate was 4.6%. • Tax revenues increased by $159 million (6.6%) compared to September 2013. Fiscal year-to-date tax revenues increased by $276 million (4.6%). • Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $96 million (25.2%) for the Hits: 16
RTR-2014-08.pdf transfers from special funds. Excluding those transfers, the fiscal year-to-date General Fund growth rate was 3.5%.  Tax revenues increased by $33 million, or 1.9%. Fiscal year-to-date and recent twelve- month growth rates were 3.2% and 0.3%, respectively.  Personal income tax revenues increased by $22 million compared to August 2013. Withholding collections increased by $21 million (3.3%) for the month Hits: 16
RTR-2014-07.pdf Commonwealth collected $2.2 billion in General Fund revenues, an increase of $323 million (16.8%) over July 2013. Non-tax collections include $227 million in one-time transfers from special funds. Absent these transfers, General Fund revenue increased by $97 million, or 5.0%. Additional detail can be found in the table below and on the following pages.  Tax revenues increased by $83 million, or 4.4%. The one-month growth in tax revenues has exceeded the recent 3- Hits: 16
RTR-2014-05.pdf year-to-date. Additional information can be found in the table below and on the following pages. • Corporate net income tax revenues decreased by $32 million (-41.0%) from the prior year, yet remain $40 million (2.0%) above the prior fiscal year-to-date. For the twelve- month period, remittances have been flat. • Financial institutions tax revenues increased by $30 million from the prior year due to atypical bank shares tax deposits of $37 million. Nearly Hits: 16
RTR-2014-03.pdf above the prior fiscal year-to-date. Additional detail can be found below and on the next page.  Total tax revenues grew by less than $1 million (0.0%). Over the past three months, revenues increased by $14 million (0.2%) compared to the same period last year.  Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $63 million (17.7%) for the month. Most of the increase was in final payments, which were Hits: 16
Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf in the prior year. For the most recent twelve month period, collections increased by 1.0%. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source July 2012 FY 12-13 to 7.1 $7.1 $49.8 $88.2 percent change 18.9% 18.9% 12.5% 3.6% All Other Tax Revenue $7.6 $7.6 $67.1 $231.7 percent change 2.9% 2.9% 5.2% 3.6% Tax Hits: 16
Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf by 6.3% and 2.1% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source December 2012 FY 12-13 to 19.1 $63.4 $29.2 $99.3 percent change 20.3% 11.0% 13.3% 4.0% All Other Tax Revenue -$2.7 $6.7 $25.5 $36.4 percent change -1.1% 0.5% 3.9% 1.4% Tax Hits: 16
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf Is the Independent Fiscal Office? • Our role in the budget process. • Other products and publications. Tax Revenues and Budget Deficits. • Tax revenues through January 2015. • Revisions to FY 2014-15 General Fund revenues. • Implications for projected budget deficits. Latest Economic Developments Economic Report. • Monthly Revenue Trends Report.  Special Studies (at request of Gen. Assembly): • HB 1776 and SB 76 – Property Tax Reform. • Medicaid Expansion. • Film Tax Credits. • Taxation of Natural Gas in Pennsylvania. • Consolidation of York County School Districts. Other Products Hits: 16
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf preliminary data through December. Factors That Could Impact Growth Constrain / Reduce  International slowdown  Federal shut down (?)  Federal tax cut / refunds  Consumer sentiment  Stock market volatility Maintain / Boost  Strong labor market  Solid income growth  n.a. n.a. All Other 1,101 -12.7% 1,047 55 1,065 185 Note: Millions of dollars. Tax revenues up 5.7% from prior fiscal year. Growth Rate Comparison Thru January January 29, 2019 7 Projected Actual General Hits: 16
NFIB_Presentation.pdf multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining agreements. ◦ Special studies at request of General Assembly. Dec.13.2017 2 A Unique for the current year. Preview of next year. Early April: analysis of proposals in Executive Budget. ◦ Any proposal that affects tax revenues. Dec.13.2017 4 Today: A (Very) Quick Overview Highlights from Economic & Budget Outlook. ◦ Demographics: rapid aging, domestic out- Hits: 16
MTR-2017-06.pdf date revenues were $31.7 billion, an increase of $768.1 million (2.5%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue June-17 $3,264 $3,226 $38 Growth 6.7% 6.5% 27.3% FYTD $31,670 $30,753 Hits: 16
MTR-2016-01.pdf date revenues were $15.9 billion, an increase of $201.8 million (1.3%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Jan-16 $2,499 $2,433 $66 Growth 4.2% 5.9% -34.7% FYTD $15,900 $15,689 Hits: 16
MTR-2015-11.pdf Trade Online. Data for 2015 are estimates based on exports through September. November 2015 Monthly Trends Report General Fund Non-Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Nov-15 $1,808 $1,796 $12 Growth 4.3% 3.8% 374.9% FYTD $10,676 $10,561 Hits: 16
MRU_2024_2.pdf billion, $110.0 million (+4.1%) above the IFO’s official estimate, driven by higher than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections. The IFO estimate for February was $40.5 million lower than the administration Hits: 16
MRU_2024_07.pdf 3.8%) over the prior year (see next page). Adjusted for new and higher statutory transfers and due date shifts, tax revenues were 1.5% above the prior year. Sales and use tax (SUT) collections were $1.29 billion for the month, a $27 million (-2.0%) decrease from the prior year. Non- Hits: 16
MRU_2024_05.pdf 36 billion, $7 million (-0.2%) below the IFO’s official estimate, driven by a shortfall in corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections that was offset by an overage in non-motor vehicle sales and use tax (SUT). The IFO estimate for May was $93 million higher than the administration’s recertified official estimate. May collections were Hits: 16
MRU_2023_12.pdf billion, $182.8 million (-4.7%) below the IFO’s official estimate, driven by a shortfall in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections. The IFO December estimate was $113.2 million higher than the administration’s estimate published in August. December Hits: 16
MRU_2023_07.pdf million (6.9%) over the prior year (see next page). Adjusting for increased statutory transfers and shifting due dates, the tax revenue growth rate was 4.1%. Relative to last year, PIT collections for July were $1.06 billion, an increase million and were $31.3 million (20.8%) above the prior year. Final payments of $119.9 million (largely for tax year 2022) drove that increase ($47.5 million, 65.5%), while estimated payments (for tax year 2023) declined (-$16.1 Hits: 16
MRU_2022_03.pdf 8%) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by strong sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. SUT collections were above estimate (+$213.0 million, 23.2%) for the Hits: 16
MRU_2022_02.pdf 9.4%) for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was driven by stronger than expected personal income tax (PIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Monthly PIT collections were $1.03 billion, which was $90.3 million (9.6%) over estimate. The overage Hits: 16
MRU_2021_09.pdf September were $551.4 million (16.0%) over estimate. The monthly differential was attributable to strength in all three major tax types: corporate net income tax (CNIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund collections of Hits: 16
MRU_2021_07.pdf pandemic. Excluding this shift, July 2021 revenues exceeded the prior year by $216.2 million (8.7%). Sales and use tax (SUT) revenues were $1.24 billion for the month, a $18.5 million (-1.5%) reduction from the prior year motor prepayment requirement. After adjusting for this shift, non-motor revenues increased $170.8 million (18.9%). July personal income tax (PIT) collections were $959.1 million, a decrease of $1.35 billion (-58.5%) from the prior year. Withholding revenues Hits: 16
MRU_2021_05.pdf Fiscal Office’s (IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly overage was primarily due to personal income tax (PIT) annual payments. Fiscal-year-to- date (FYTD) General Fund collections are $36.62 billion, which are $1.60 billion due date extension from April 15 to May 17 to coincide with the change in the federal due date for tax year (TY) 2020 returns. In addition, quarterly (+$76.8 million, 307.1%) and withholding (+$15.6 million, 1.9%) payments Hits: 16
MRU-2022-10.pdf than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The monthly overage is primarily due to stronger than anticipated sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT) revenues. October SUT collections of $1.27 billion were $139.9 million (12.4%) over estimate due entirely to Hits: 16
MRU-2022-08.pdf than the estimate certified by the Governor.) The monthly overage was largely due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) revenues. Monthly SUT collections of $1.17 billion were $90.2 million (8.4%) above estimate due to overages 6 million (6.9%), led primarily by non -motor vehicle collections (+$148.5 million, 7.3%). August corporate net income tax (CNIT) revenues of $102.0 million were $8.0 million ( -7.3%) lower than anticipated due to estimated payments ( -$8 Hits: 16
MRU-2022-01.pdf for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was primarily due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT) collections. SUT collections for the month came in at $1.26 billion and were $159.9 million (14.5% Hits: 16
MRU-2020-07.pdf billion (76.2 percent) above collections for July 2019. Roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July monthly collections exceeded the prior year total by closures earlier this year and the continued effect of federal economic impact payments and enhanced unemployment compensation benefits. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for July were $2.31 billion, an increase of $1.29 billion (126.1 percent) above the prior Hits: 16
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines two federal agencies.  Congressional Budget Annual budget projections.  Special studies on revenues or expenditures.  Joint Committee on Taxation.  “Scoring” of changes to tax policy.  Analysis of various tax code provisions. 10.Jul.2012 2 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Staff  Office currently Hits: 16
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-year Hits: 16
RTR-2015-04.pdf billion (7.5%) higher than the prior fiscal year-to-date. Excluding one-time transfers and a $100 million inheritance tax payment in October 2014, fiscal year-to-date growth is 6.1%.  Personal income tax withholding revenues increased by $34 million (4.3%) for the month and by $282 million (3.8%) for the fiscal Hits: 15
RTR-2015-03.pdf 1.2 billion (5.9%) higher than the prior year. However, adjusting for one-time transfers and an unexpected inheritance tax payment, the year-to-date growth was $875 million (4.3%). • Corporate net income tax revenues increased by $96 million (22.8%) for the month and $252 million (15.3%) for the fiscal year-to- Hits: 15
RTR-2015-01.pdf were $1,051 million (7.2%) higher than the prior year. However, adjusting for one-time transfers, an unexpected inheritance tax payment and the timing of receipts, the year-to-date growth was $645 million (4.4%).  Corporate net income tax deposits increased by $32 million (35.9%) for the month. Some of the increase is attributable to distributions from the Hits: 15
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf withdrawals from 401k and IRA  Up to $100,000 for qualified persons \| 10% penalty does not apply  Associated taxes can be paid off ratably over three years  Unknown how much withdrawn under program Shifting consumer spending patterns  Recovery Period: Revenue Growth Rates October 29, 2020 8 Mitigation Mar to Jun Recovery Jul to Oct Notes General Fund Tax -9.2% 0.4% Corp. Net Income -12.3% -5.2% much better than expected Sales - Non-Motor -7.1% Hits: 15
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf 4 Federal UC Payments 13.9 Healthcare Providers 1.9 SNAP 0.3 Educational Institutions 0.5 Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 Total $78.0 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.8 Note: Billions of dollars. Federal UC Payments include FPUC, PUA Hits: 15
Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf by 5.1% and 1.4% over the most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue Source November 2012 FY 12-13 to 13.7 $44.3 $37.3 $79.6 percent change -33.8% 9.2% 9.1% 3.2% All Other Tax Revenue $24.2 $9.4 $8.5 $51.3 percent change 12.4% 0.9% 1.3% 2.0% Tax Hits: 15
Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenue fell by $85 million (-5.0%) for the month, primarily due to a decline of $98 million in personal income tax collections.  Personal income tax receipts declined for the following reasons: o Employer withholding deposits were $92 million (-11.9% Hits: 15
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf governmental function, official oppression, and speculating or wagering on official action or information. A criminal offense under the personal income tax chapter of the Tax Reform Code of 1971 is also such a crime as is a criminal offense under federal law substantially the same Hits: 15
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf 4 Federal UC Payments 14.7 Healthcare Providers 2.1 SNAP 0.4 Educational Institutions 0.5 Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 Total $78.7 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.5 Note: Billions of dollars. Federal UC Payments include FPUC, PUA Hits: 15
NewsStand_2019_October.pdf from 26% to 34% by 2038, while the homeownership rate is anticipated to decline. Americans Pay about 86% of Federal Taxes Owed On September 26, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released new estimates on taxpayer compliance. It report- ed an annual gap of $381 billion between taxes owed and taxes collected. The analysis covered tax years 2011 through 2013 and found that voluntary compliance remained relatively unchanged Hits: 15
MTR-2016-05.pdf date revenues were $27.84 billion, an increase of $163.8 million (0.6%) from the prior year. General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue May-16 $1,944 $1,905 $40 Growth -0.9% 2.2% -59.6% FYTD $27,841 $27,227 Hits: 15
MRU_2024_08.pdf 1.1%) higher and FYTD collections were $143 million (+2.5%) higher. (See next page.) Revenue highlights for the major tax types include: Sales and use tax (SUT) collections were $1.21 billion for the month, a $53 million (+4.6%) increase from the prior year. Motor Hits: 15
MRU_2023_11.pdf billion, $78.9 million (+2.6%) above the IFO ’s official estimate, driven by an overage in corporate net income tax (CNIT) which was partially offset by a shortfall in personal income tax (PIT). (The IFO November estimate was $32.5 million lower than the estimate certified by the Governor.) November collections were Hits: 15
MRU_2022_04.pdf above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was largely due to very strong personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments. PIT collections for April were $4.15 billion, which were $1.53 billion (58.6%) above estimate. The Hits: 15
MRU_2021_04.pdf IFO) revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly shortage was primarily due to lower than expected personal income tax (PIT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund collections are $32.68 billion, which are $274.5 million (0 payment due date from April 15 to May 17 to coincide with the change in the federal due date for tax year 2020 returns. Withholding payments fell below estimate (-$13.2 million, -1.5%) for the month and quarterly payments exceeded Hits: 15
MRU_2021_02.pdf revised Official Estimate published in January 2021. The overage was largely the result of a temporary shift in personal income tax (PIT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $23.87 billion, or $267.5 million (1.1 percent) above estimate. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections were $1.8 million (2.6 percent) over the monthly projections for February due to stronger than expected Hits: 15
MRU-2022-05.pdf above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD). The monthly overage was due to strength in sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) payments. Monthly SUT collections of $1.20 billion were $170.4 million (16 Hits: 15
MRU-2020-08.pdf August were $247.7 million (10.8 percent) higher than anticipated. The overage was largely attributable to sales and use tax (SUT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $392.3 million (6.3 percent). Monthly SUT revenues were Hits: 15
MRU-2020-06.pdf from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. The impact of the virus was partially offset by a $35 million overage in various other revenue sources. Corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections for June were $243.8 million (-38.5 percent) below estimate. The majority of the shortfall (-$190.6 Hits: 15
Migration_RB_06_2024.pdf In June, the Internal Revenue Service released the latest state-level migration data. The dataset uses income tax returns to track the migration of filers (and dependents) between states for returns filed and processed during calendar years 2021 and 2022. 1 The dataset only includes those who filed tax returns (including dependents) and will not reflect certain individuals who migrated but were exempt from filing due to income limits Hits: 15
Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf most recent three and twelve-month periods, respectively. Additional detail can be found below and on the following pages.  Tax revenue grew by $176 million for the month, primarily due to an increase of $173 million in personal income tax collections.  Personal income tax receipts were robust for the following reasons: o A due date occurring in February last Hits: 14
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdf In April, the Internal Revenue Service released the latest state-level migration data. The dataset uses income tax returns to track the migration of filers (and dependents) between states for returns filed and processed during calendar years 2020 and 2021. 1 The dataset only includes those who filed tax returns (including dependents) and will not reflect certain individuals who migrated but were exempt from filing due to income limits Hits: 14
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf Duties and Releases ▪ Monthly releases: revenue collections, economic update ▪ Pensions: determine if actuarial note required prior to further consideration ▪ Property tax: forecasts and analysis depending on requests/data available ▪ Performance Based Budgets (PBB) and Tax Credit reviews ▪ Natural Gas: quarterly production reports, annual impact fee collections January 19, 2022 1 Latest Pennsylvania Demographic Forecast January Hits: 14
Newsstand_February_2020.pdf expenditures across states in Federal Fiscal Year (FFY) 2018. Some states receive more in federal expenditures than they pay in taxes, while other states bear the tax burden while receiving less federal benefits. This is known as the “balance of payments” and is influenced by factors such Hits: 14
MRU_2021_10.pdf the fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) estimate. The monthly outcome was primarily due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections. Monthly SUT collections were $109.1 million (10.2%) higher than anticipated. The surplus was largely driven by Hits: 14
MRU_2021_08.pdf billion, or $71.5 million (2.9%) over estimate. The monthly overage was almost entirely due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) and sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) General Fund collections are $5.27 billion, which are $163.1 million (3 Hits: 14
MRU_2020_11.pdf Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The monthly outcome was due to stronger than expected sales and use tax (SUT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections, which were largely offset by lower than expected personal income tax (PIT) withholding collections. Withholding collections in November Hits: 14
MRU-2022-07.pdf 0 million (-0.1%) below prior year collections. After adjusting for new transfers (1) from motor vehicle sales and use tax (SUT) to the Public Transportation Trust Fund ($42.2 million) and (2) from personal income tax (PIT) withholding to the Election Integrity Restricted Account ($45.0 million), collections increased $83.2 million (3.1%) from the Hits: 14
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf monies removed through January ($39 million, to be deposited in June). Non-motor SUT and Cigarette and OTP adjusted for tax changes. PIT – Withholding adjusted for extra due date. CSFT assumed to be zero both years. Through January Revised Estimate Actual IFO Revised Estimate FY 2016-17 25.Jan.2017 14 Non-Motor SUT Growth Note: Adjusted SUT controls for expanded tax base and transfers. Uses one month lag to coincide with withholding and economic activity. Withholding growth rates are adjusted for Hits: 14
Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf as federal Wisconsin depends on income limited exemption exempt Wyoming n.a. n.a. n.a. Table 1 State Income Tax Treatment of Retirement Income Note: n.a. represents states that have no personal income tax on wages. Source: Retirement Living Information Center and CCH IntelliConnect. Ratio Ratio All Residents 2.66% All Residents 2.94% Hits: 14
House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdf Property Tax Update House Majority Policy Committee Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office August 30, 2021 School District Property Tax Forecast August 30, 2021 1 Actual Estimate Forecast 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Hits: 14
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf 2017 4 2-Year Impact Revenue Package $1,006 Revenue Enhancements 304 Loans or Leasebacks 335 Gaming Expansion 250 Reduce Tax Credits 100 Consolidation/Closures/Complement 351 2016-17 DHS Savings 165 Pupil Transport Savings & U. Penn Approp. 82 Miscellaneous Efficiency 2017-18 Executive Budget and Feb. 7, 2017 budget presentation. The Revenue Package February 28, 2017 5 2017-18 Broaden Tax Base Sales – Custom Programming $330 Sales – Storage and Aircraft 160 Insurance Premiums Tax 142 Tax Reform Corporate – Combined Reporting 0 Hits: 14
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. Currently, the PTRR program provides base rebates of $250 to $650 to certain who (1) have household incomes below $30,000 and (2) pay at least 15 percent of that income in property taxes. 1 Homeowners in the cities of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Scranton in this income range receive the supplemental rebate regardless of Hits: 13
RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdf On December 16, 2022, the IRS released state-level data for federal income tax returns for tax year 2020. These data provide the most complete snapshot of income levels for Pennsylvania residents who received unemployment compensation (UC Hits: 13
MRU_2024_06.pdf collections were $53 million (-1.4%) lower than collections for June 2023. (See next page.) Revenue highlights for the major tax types include: ▪ June corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections of $917 million were $13 million (-1.4%) below estimate. Fiscal year CNIT collections of $5.65 billion Hits: 13
MRU-2020-09.pdf associated with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The difference was attributable to sales and use tax (SUT), corporate net income tax (CNIT) and personal income tax (PIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $739.6 million (8.1 Hits: 13
MRU-2020-04.pdf year) and (3) $1.60 billion that will shift to fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.19 billion (-7.4 percent) below estimate through April and are 5.7 percent below collections for the same period in the prior fiscal year. Personal income tax (PIT) collections for the month were significantly below estimate (-$1.48 billion), with the entire shortfall attributable to the virus Hits: 13
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdf This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates for a proposed two-tier property tax rebate for senior homeowners (age 65 and over) in certain income ranges. The specified income ranges and rebate amounts are amount of rebates that would be distributed to those homeowners, (3) the average rebate amount and (4) the average property tax paid for each group. 1 The estimated rebate amounts are $1.56 billion for the first tier and $720 million Hits: 13
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf Office  Revenue and Expenditure Detail, Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson\| The PEW Charitable Trusts  Evaluation of State Economic Development Tax Incentives November 16, 2017 2 Budget Emphasis: Cost Containment State governments have used three methods.  Efficiency Initiatives - Lean, TQM  Cost-Benefit Analysis - PEW Results First model.  Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB). Act 48 of 2017: New PBB and tax credit review duties.  IFO to develop PBB plans for all executive agencies.  Develop clear metrics to measure progress Hits: 13
About IFO Mr. Knittel has taught courses at Johns Hopkins, Temple and Penn State Universities and published several articles in the National Tax Journal, the NBER and US Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis working paper series. Marissa Litman Deputy Director Formerly employed as Director of Budget Policy & Analysis for the School District Hits: 13
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf prior year transfers do not recur. • Escheat collections return to a “normal” level. • Elimination of the capital stock and franchise tax. • Technical considerations affect timing of revenues. Highlights of January Report 8.Jun.2016 7  Impact of changes on FY 8  FY 2016‐17 revenue estimate increased by $61 million in the May 3 rd release. • Corporate net income tax increased by $101 million and non‐tax sources increased by $51 million. • Personal income tax decreased by $113 million. • Other Hits: 12
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf PBB Addendums Updated Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Review Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board September 28, 2021 PBB Addendum Requests Pennsylvania Department of Transportation ▪ Activity Brownfield Redevelopment Credit ▪ Roughly half offer credits that offset a share of direct remediation costs ▪ PA and DE offer job tax credits to increase attractiveness of site ▪ PA only state to base tax credit on job creation only September 28, 2021 Hits: 12
MRU_2021_01.pdf Estimate published in January 2021. The monthly shortfall was the largely the result of a temporary shift in personal income tax (PIT) collections. Fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $21.2 billion, $242.1 million (-1.1 percent) lower than expected. Total corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections reached $146.0 million, largely meeting the January projection (0.1 percent). The monthly performance was due to Hits: 12
MRU-2020-10.pdf with the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The key variances are attributable to sales and use tax (SUT), personal income tax (PIT) and corporate net income tax (CNIT). Fiscal year-to-date (FYTD) collections exceed estimate by $1.01 billion (8 Hits: 12
MRU-2020-05.pdf fiscal year) and (3) $70 million that will shift to fiscal year (FY) 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. The impact of the virus was partially offset by a $10 million overage in various revenue sources. May fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) collections are $2.70 billion (-8.4 percent) below estimate. Monthly sales and use tax (SUT) collections were below estimate by $282.9 million or 28.8 percent in May, with the shortfall in non- Hits: 12
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf 2,824 $2,984 $1,982 $4,551 $3,905 $2,599 $3,028 $33,899 Total Corporation Taxes 81 55 549 130 60 533 148 75 2,246 307 345 581 5,111 Corporate Net Income 77 47 527 125 426 Financial Institutions 0 1 16 1 1 8 1 1 321 3 1 9 363 Total Consumption Taxes 1,100 1,027 1,029 1,083 1,003 1,086 1,072 878 946 1,058 1,033 1,101 Hits: 12
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf still relies on stronger growth in the second half of the fiscal year. Factors that likely affected economic growth and tax revenues in 2013, such as the expiration of the federal payroll tax cut and the federal budget sequester, should be fully absorbed at this point. However, recent wage growth and consumer spending Hits: 12
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf currently preparing for a district wide feasibility study. (Part IV Q3) Girard SD The district is about 60% ED, tax base is made of mostly residential, and the average assessed value of a home is a little over $100,000. The about 57% and local being 39%. With our district being very poor it is hard to keep raising the taxes to meet shortfalls and to keep up with all the demands of having such a high economically disadvantaged percentage. With Independent Hits: 12
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf and credited to the participant's individual investment account in excess of the mandatory pickup participant contributions, either by after-tax salary deductions paid through the employer or by an eligible rollover or direct trustee-to-trustee transfers. Section 102. Section 403(b) plans. 8412. Responsibility for investment loss. 8413. Investments based on participant's investment allocation choices. 8414. Expenses. 8415. Tax qualification. § 8401. Establishment. (a) School Employees' Defined Contribution Plan.--The School Employees' Defined Contribution Plan is established. The board shall Hits: 12
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2022 Today’s Presentation Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Corporate net income, sales tax, personal income, inheritance Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 \| wage-price spiral taking hold 6.5 2.3 Notes Expanded/advance CTC ends Jan 2022. Roughly one half of advance will result in higher tax liability. Expanded UC subject to federal but not state income tax. All EIPs are non-taxable. Note: Billions of dollars Hits: 12
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 12
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf Commission Public Welfare Revenue Securities Commission State State Employees' Retirement System State Ethics Commission State System of Higher Education State Tax** Equalization Board Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology Transportation Treasury Department * Pennsylvania State Police Officers have their own eligibility requirements and any, are high enough to allow sufficient funding. • Earnings in trust or account are not subject to unrelated business income tax (UBIT). • Contributions to the trust are not taxable to employees, and benefit pay- ments from the trust are not taxable Hits: 12
Releases 20, 2024 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2024-25 state budget. Full Report 2022 Property Tax Burden by County August 21, 2024 \| Property Tax This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2 Hits: 12
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf for Pennsylvania. The repayments are treated as a reduction in disposable household income, similar to an increase in federal income taxes or state sales tax. Because borrowers have unique spending patterns 1 This statistic is based on national data as state-level data are not Hits: 11
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf workers. 3.Dec.2014 A Continuation of Broad Trends 15 Fiscal Outlook Year-to-Date Revenues Long-Term Fiscal Imbalance Tax Base Erosion 3.Dec.2014 16 3.Dec.2014 17 Fiscal Year-to-Date Revenues Strong FYTD Nov-13 FYTD 3,998 190 5.0 Corporate Income 653 730 77 11.8 Inheritance 355 450 95 26.8 All Other Tax 932 904 -28 -3.0 All Non-Tax 77 87 9 12.0 Note: millions of dollars. PIT is Personal Hits: 11
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf 10, 2023 2 Activities Amount Share Number Share Lottery $668.5 55% 259 16% PTRR 230.1 19 90 6 Tax Administration 192.3 16 478 29 Enforcement 73.9 6 690 42 Administration 45.1 4 111 7 Total 1,210.0 100 1,628 100 Note: Includes all expenditures in $ millions. PTRR is property tax and rent rebate. FTEs Expenditures DOR General Fund Appropriations (FY 22-23) January 10, 2023 3 Appropriations Tax Admin. Enforce- Hits: 11
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Broadband and Technology Initiatives .................................................... 51 Activity 12: Administration ....................................................................................... 55 Activity 12: Administration (Addendum) ................................................................... 57 Appendix ................................................................................................................ 61 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .............................. 61 Agency Response ................................................................................................. 62 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background on Performance-Based Budgeting \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 11
MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdf profits transfer consistent with assumptions reflected in the FY 2023-24 budget and (2) excludes the $115.3 million cigarette tax transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund which was included in the IFO’s official estimate. The adjustments are summarized in to the official estimate certified by the administration (Table 5) is included on the last page. FY 2023-24 Cigarette Tax $115.3 Liquor Store Profits -36.9 Total $78.4 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments Note: Figures indollar millions. Reflects Hits: 11
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf 2,907 $2,799 $2,191 $4,515 $3,914 $2,577 $3,233 $35,874 Total Corporation Taxes 221 278 489 98 69 444 115 136 2,089 294 305 524 5,060 Corporate Net Income 216 271 474 89 447 Financial Institutions 0 1 9 1 1 6 1 1 350 4 1 6 382 Total Consumption Taxes 1,178 1,021 1,008 1,089 1,032 1,144 1,167 939 1,005 1,010 1,130 1 Hits: 11
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROI 2022 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference October 24, 2022 Background: Independent Fiscal Office Created by Act 120 of 2010 and began operations in 2011 Hits: 11
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf pension costs decline November 15, 2021 3 Four Key Assumptions Inflation decelerates, but does not reverse ▪ Nominal sales and use tax, personal and corporate income revenues Some pandemic-induced changes partly reverse ▪ Very high profit margins ▪ Consumer spending: more goods, fewer 4 8.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. High Inflation Impacts Sales Tax November 15, 2021 11 Year-Over-Year Growth in CPI-U for 2021 CPI-U April June Aug Oct Weight Hits: 11
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf State or Federal Policy Changes.  But, the Governor must bring budget into balance.  What about the federal government? Taxes? ACA? “Discretionary” Spending Grows With Inflation.  Need not happen. It is an assumption.  Policymakers control that outcome 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 SUT 3.5% Wages 4.0% PIT 4.4% PIT = Personal Income Tax SUT = Sales and Use Tax Service Sector Drives Job Gains (000s) 11/15/2016 20 11.8 9.5 13 Hits: 11
EPLC_April_2024.pdf Center • Revenue estimates \| Economic & demographic trends • Economic analysis of executive revenue proposals • 5-Year Economic & Budget Outlook • Performance-based budgeting \| Tax credit reviews • Pension analysis \| Dynamic modeling \| Economic impact • Analyze impact of collective bargaining agreements Special Studies and Legislative Requests • Property tax reform \| Natural gas & electricity • State comparisons \| Others as requested IFO Role in Budget Process Source: Governor’s Executive Budget 2024- Hits: 11
Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdf and excludes the impact of employment shifts across occupations and industries. The annual growth in current-year school district property taxes typically does not match the statewide base index. This is due to the net impact of three factors: (1) many fully utilize their individual index. 5 If a large school district with a relatively high share of statewide school property tax revenue has an adjusted index that exceeds the base index, then that would increase the gap between statewide revenue growth Hits: 11
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf except Real GDP which is quarterly annualized rate. Wage-Salaries growth for 2022.3 and 2022.4 based on withholding tax revenues. Change Payroll Jobs is annual change for the quarter compared to prior year. Labor market data are seasonally adjusted EBT, Sick and Family Leave ($0.4 billion, self-employed) and expanded Child and Dependent Care ($0.5 billion) refundable tax credits. Credits were attributable to tax year 2021 but received as a refund in CY 2022. Estimates for PA assume Hits: 11
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 11
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-year Hits: 11
QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf were $74 million above estimate. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter. • Corporate net income tax revenues were $27 million below estimate due to lower-than- expected estimated payments. • Non-motor sales tax collections were $20 million below estimate. After a strong July, this revenue source displayed only modest growth in August and Hits: 10
MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf year. However, the comparison with the prior year is affected by one-time payments and timing issues. October 2014 inheritance tax revenues included a $100 million payment that did not recur this year. In addition, some personal income tax withholding collections associated with weekly and quarterly due dates that occurred in October 2014 were received in late September or Hits: 10
MRU-2020-12.pdf Fiscal Office’s (IFO) June 2020 Official Estimate. The overage was primarily due to stronger than expected corporate net income tax (CNIT) collections and one-time transfers under Act 114 of 2020 (not included in the IFO’s Official Estimate). Monthly in the IFO’s Official Estimate. Through December, withholding collections declined at an adjusted rate of 0.9 percent. Non-tax revenues were above the estimate for December by $353.6 million as a result of $334.4 million in one- Hits: 10
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf 7 in the hotels and lodging sector, 5 in the restaurant sector and 18 throughout other sectors in the state. • Taxes Generated: Based on the spending assumptions, state tax revenues related to the event include: $47,000 in state personal income tax and $120,000 in state sales tax Hits: 10
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf Economic Outlook And Property Tax Update Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials November 16, 2021 Two Parts Overview of IFO Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Will workers return? ▪ Does inflation decelerate? ▪ Do budget surpluses last? Property Tax Update ▪ No look at COVID-19 impact on SD collections yet ▪ Some data suggest decline not as bad as anticipated Hits: 10
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf 30 million of revenue relative to our recent forecast. (See attachment.) Most of the strength is in inheritance and non-tax revenues. We have some concerns regarding the recent weakness in sales tax, and we will monitor that tax source as we prepare to release our five-year budget projections in November. Related Hits: 10
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office \| November 2019 1 Welcome Katherine Loughead \| Tax Foundation  Modernizing PA Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner \| Institute for Taxation & Economic Policy  Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Hits: 10
IFO ppt.pdf Conference Profits Margins at Historical Highs $0.00 $0.04 $0.08 $0.12 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Pre-Tax Profit Per Dollar of Sales Census: Wholesalers, Retailers, Manufacturers, Mining January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 crisis. Recent French downgrade. German economy contracts in 2011 Q4. Forecast assumes crisis averted, minor recession instead. – Extension of payroll tax cut. Economic forecast assumes full year extension. – Automatic spending cuts for 2013. Economic forecast assumes that does not occur as Hits: 10
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf 2016. Primary responsibilities include leading the Department of Human Services performance-based budgeting reports, forecasting sales and use tax revenues, working on special projects regarding human services and demographics, and assisting in the coordination of department expenditures forecasts. Michaela Bowers, Revenue September 2018 and as a full-time staff member in December 2018. Primary responsibilities include forecasting personal income tax revenues and lottery proceeds along with other projects related to tax credit reviews, performance-based budgeting and demographics. Questions regarding this report Hits: 10
2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdf 7 Initial Revenue Estimate YOY Growth Rate 2023.2 2023.3 2023.4 2024.1 2024.2 Sales and Use Tax Non-Motor Vehicle 1.7% 1.8% 0.3% 4.5% 1.6% Motor Vehicle -0.1% -3.0% -1 4 weakness in April final payment Inheritance 1,368 104 8.2 All Tobacco 639 -90 -12.4 Unusual cigarette tax weakness Realty Transfer 427 -101 -19.2 Strong lock-in effect continues All Other 4,814 683 16.5 Treasury Hits: 10
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 10
SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx 1.59 2.00 2012-13 2.13 1.83 2.46 1.61 2.06 Notes: 1 Personal Income Tax index is rate adjusted for the 2004 rate increase. 2 Sales and Use Tax index prior to any transfers. FY 2010-11 adjusted to remove the impact of a change in payment methods. 3 Hits: 9
RB_2024_06_Revenues_Spending.pdf spending (e.g., Medicaid). Over the past five years, General Fund revenues grew 30%. The growth in corporate net income tax (66%) was notable, and would have been higher (80%) without the rate reduction from 9.99% to 8.99% (2023) and 8.49% (2024). Inheritance tax revenue growth (56%) was also strong due to housing and stock market gains. All Other Tax revenues were largely flat Hits: 9
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf In May, the Internal Revenue Service released the latest state-level migration data. The dataset uses income tax returns to track the migration of filers (and dependents) between states for returns filed and processed during calendar years 2019 and 2020. 1 The dataset only includes those who filed tax returns (including dependents) and will not reflect certain individuals who migrated but were exempt from filing due to income limits Hits: 9
RB-2015-04.pdf 010, an increase of $5,930. However, those wage gains would be reduced by the employee’s share of payroll taxes (7.65 percent), which would reduce wage gains to $5,475. Under current law, wage gains may also be subject to the 3.07 percent state personal income tax, which would further reduce the gain to $5,295. Federal income tax may also apply, depending on the characteristics of Hits: 9
QRE_FY15-16.xlsx Projection Total General Fund $6,662.1 $6,570.8 $8,644.9 $8,843.8 $30,721.6 Total Tax Revenue 6,620.1 6,505.7 8,498.9 8,553.5 30,178.2 Total Corporation Taxes 660.3 733.0 2,547.8 1,066.0 5,007.1 Corporate Net Income 599.7 682.5 Hits: 9
QRE_FY15-16.pdf Projection Total General Fund $6,662.1 $6,570.8 $8,644.9 $8,843.8 $30,721.6 Total Tax Revenue 6,620.1 6,505.7 8,498.9 8,553.5 30,178.2 Total Corporation Taxes 660.3 733.0 2,547.8 1,066.0 5,007.1 Corporate Net Income 599.7 682.5 Hits: 9
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf Very long term: trends through 2040. Economic Implications o Labor Force, Income and Jobs Composition, Growth. Budget Implications o Persistent tax base erosion due to demographics. 12.June.2014 2 Today’s Presentation 12.June.2014 3 Broad Demographic Trends 2000 of Labor. +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income o Nearly 20% of all income reported on federal tax return. Reliance on Pensions, Savings and Social Security o Social Security income meant to be “supplemental.” o What impact from Hits: 9
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf the State Library .................................................................................. 55 Activity 9: Student Support Services ................................................................................................... 57 Activity 10: Administration ................................................................................................................. 61 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 63 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ....................................................... 63 Agency Response .......................................................................................................................... 64 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 9
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf pandemic scenario. Payroll jobs figure for 2021.3 reflects July only. Federal stimulus includes PPP loans, expanded SNAP, advance child tax credit payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates or changes are year-over-year except Real GDP scenario that includes typical seasonal job gains/losses through July. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Non-Motor Sales Tax Breaks Record in July August 25, 2021 3 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 “normal” year 2021 Q2 Hits: 9
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf higher than 2019. New IRS Data Reveal Impact of TCJA on PA Taxpayers The IRS released state-level data for tax year 2018 that reveal the significant impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania residents that filed a federal income tax return. Major provisions of Hits: 9
MER-2014-02.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year‐over‐year Hits: 9
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf except Real GDP which is quarterly annualized rate. Wage-Salaries growth for 2023.1 and 2023.2 based on withholding tax revenues. Change Payroll Jobs is annual change for quarter compared to prior year. Labor market data are seasonally adjusted. Source 23 Growth Corporate Net Income $3.40 $6.12 80.0% Inheritance $1.05 $1.53 45.7% Personal Income Tax – Other $3.65 $5.02 37.5% Sales and Use $11.10 $14.01 26.2% Personal Income Tax – Withhold Hits: 9
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf except Real GDP which is quarterly annualized rate. Wage-Salaries growth for 2023.1 and 2023.2 based on withholding tax revenues. Change Payroll Jobs is annual change for quarter compared to prior year. Labor market data are seasonally adjusted. Source 23 Growth Corporate Net Income $3.40 $6.12 80.0% Inheritance $1.05 $1.53 45.7% Personal Income Tax – Other $3.65 $5.02 37.5% Sales and Use $11.10 $14.60 31.5% Personal Income Tax – Withhold Hits: 9
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdf operating year and (3) projects collections for CY 2024. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2023 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2023, the PUC reported Hits: 9
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf operating year and (3) projects collections for CY 2023. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2022 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2022, the PUC reported Hits: 9
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf PA 17120 Dear Representative Ryan: On April 12, 2022, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provided updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. This letter responds to your April 20 request for additional information related to Estimates Adjusted for Effective Dates The IFO projects that an October 1 effective date for the proposed sales and use tax (SUT) changes would yield roughly 70% of the full-year revenue estimate. For fiscal year (FY) 2022-23, the full- Hits: 9
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf groceries, cars  But what impact from loss of $600 weekly FPUC payment? July revenues exceed expectation  Car sales tax breaks record \| projected $2 billion shift largely captured August 19, 2020 1 Latest Real-Time PA Economic Data August 19 767 15,165 214 PIT - Other 4,612 above above 1,415 All Tobacco 1,008 967 41 All Other Tax 3,175 2,898 277 70 All Non-Tax 667 686 -20 25 Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. PIT Hits: 9
April_1_Revenue_Update.pdf forecast for the current and subsequent fiscal year include: • Most gross receipts (GRT), insurance premiums (IPT) and bank shares (BS) taxes are remitted in March, and collections totaled $2.46 billion for the month, $306 million higher than projected last June through March will increase the transfer to the Municipal Pension Aid Fund. • The first estimated payment for corporate net income tax (CNIT) remitted in March (tax year 2024) was very weak, down 30% from last year. This implies materially lower than Hits: 9
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf and (2) $82m in withholding transfers for FY 19-20 and $25m in transfers for FY 18-19. Personal Income Tax CY 2019 withholding strong ~4.3%  2019 Q2 notably strong ~+5.0%  Some deceleration since then \| 2019 Q4 year  Natural gas royalties down due to prices January 28, 2020 9 PIT Payments Growth January 28, 2020 10 Tax Year Basis 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Quarterlies 16.1% -3.2% 11.5% -5.6% 10.9% Annuals Hits: 9
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 9
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 9
2002_drop_report.pdf alternatives may be elected for the DROP account balance: 1) Lump-sum distribution direct to the participant, paying the appropriate taxes; 2) Direct rollover into a tax qualified plan such as an IRA; 3) Conversion to a monthly benefit in order to enhance regular pension payments; or Hits: 9
SR2017-06.pdf assessment offices that resulted in responses from 50 counties and contributes to an understanding of the share of the property tax base that is comprised of homestead property. These data will be used to analyze proposals pertaining to property taxes in consideration of the recent passage of the constitutional amendment expanding the homestead exclusion. The purpose of the CCAP/IFO Hits: 8
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf 9% Quarterly 1,821 10.9% 1,874 2.9% Annual 1,344 -3.6% 1,470 9.4% Other Tax Revenue 5,095 0.3% 4,960 -2.6% Non-Tax Revenue 658 -40.2% 578 -12.3% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Detail may not sum to total due to Hits: 8
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf earlier projections. The reductions are largely the result of updated economic assumptions, a lower estimate for small games of chance tax revenues and new information on the timing of potential casino licensing decisions. Relative to the Executive Budget published in February FY13-14 and $870 million lower for FY14-15, a two-year difference of $1,442 million. Corporate Net Income Tax – Revenues are expected to be flat in FY14-15. Lower tax liabilities from the expanded net operating loss deduction will Hits: 8
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf 1% ‐0.3% ‐0.4% 0.3% Job Gains (000s) 44.9 44.4 46.3 57.4 Realty Transfer Tax 12.4% 20.4% 18.8% 13.5% Gasoline Prices ‐28.2% ‐28.0% ‐27.3% ‐18.0% Year‐ over‐year growth rates for respective quarters. The growth in wages and salaries is based on personal income tax withholding. The growth in consumer prices is based on the Philadelphia CPI‐U. May 13, 2016 3 Latest Annual PA Hits: 8
NGIFE-2016.pdf which will be remitted in April 2017. 1 This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments Hits: 8
NGIFE-2015.pdf Protection to project CY 2015 collections. 1 The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quanti Ðies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Since 2012, Pennsylvania has imposed an annual impact fee on Hits: 8
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf estimates ▪ Approximately $6 billion in federal relief supports current year budget ▪ Proposed for FY 22-23: Minimum wage increase \| corporate tax changes Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 \| wage-price spiral taking hold? Natural gas Other 6,766 4.2 fed funds/transfer Note: Dollars in millions. Revenues through March 2022. PIT is personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for due date shifts, one-time transfers and extra deposit day for withholding. Initial Revenue Estimate Hits: 8
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf 2,338 $3,681 $2,904 $2,174 $4,559 $4,240 $2,618 $3,418 $38,437 Total Corporation Taxes 239 292 607 125 140 769 181 86 2,079 314 287 501 5,621 Corporate Net Income 237 287 2 -14 424 Financial Institutions 1 0 7 1 1 4 1 1 354 4 1 6 382 Total Consumption Taxes 1,375 1,187 1,141 1,234 1,135 1,174 1,194 941 1,021 1,066 1 Hits: 8
May_1_Revenue_Update.pdf 2023). Updates for specific sources that impact the revenue forecast for the current and subsequent fiscal year include: • Personal income tax (PIT) annual payments (for tax year 2023) fell $79 million below estimate in April and were $34 million (-2.4%) below collections from April 2023 Hits: 8
Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf on the income tax retum. 5 Firm A therefore defers tax on the remaining $50,000 gain, but it also forgoes $50,000 of future depreciation deductions that would have been Hits: 8
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf 3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2022 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2021 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2021, the PUC reported Hits: 8
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf 3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2021 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2020 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2020, the PUC reported Hits: 8
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf 3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2020 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2019 Impact Fee Revenues For CY 2019, the PUC reported Hits: 8
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf 3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2019 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Introduction Table 1: Impact Fee Revenue and Distributions 2015 2016 Hits: 8
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf 3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2018 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Introduction Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2014 2015 Hits: 8
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf 3) discusses two potential scenarios for CY 2017 collections. It also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quanti Ðies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2016 I F R For CY 2016, impact fee revenues Hits: 8
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf 2019, which will be remitted in April 2020. This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Table 1 displays the estimated CY 2019 collections with actual Hits: 8
IFO_Letter_to_the_SCC.pdf Brown: In response to Senator Browne’s directive to develop performance measures for the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credit, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) offers the following guidance for your consideration. Ideally, the State Conservation Commission (SCC) would an environmental model to project the pollution reduction that results from actual best management practices (BMPs) funded by the REAP Tax Credit during that year. The model would account for the type and geographic location of each BMP implemented. If the Hits: 8
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf CY 2020 Labor Force -260k 2020 Q4 Home Values +8.0% 2020 Q3 Small Bus Revenue -28% 2020 Q4 Sales Tax +6.9% 2020 Q3-Q4 Credit Card Debt -8.6% 2020 Q2-Q3 Rental Market Low Income HH S&P 12.2% very strong December payment Sales - Non-Motor Vehicle +3.8% appliance purchases, remodels Cigarette +3.2% All Other Tax +1.6% Personal Income - Withholding -1.0% turned positive in Q4 Inheritance -3.4% possible delayed filings Personal Income - Other Hits: 8
2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf year (CY) 2023, which will be remitted in April 2024. It also converts the impact fee into an annual effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2023 Impact Fee Revenues The estimate for the CY 2023 Hits: 8
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf year (CY) 2022, which will be remitted in April 2023. It also converts the impact fee into an annual effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2022 Impact Fee Revenues The estimate for the CY 2022 Hits: 8
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 8
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf opportunity set. • The indirect costs potentially incurred by state government and local school districts, including increased employer contributions and thus taxes, to fund either shortfalls in actual public pension plan earnings or reductions in earnings assumptions, or both. - 7 - PART II transferred to the retirement systems, they belong solely to the retirement systems’ members and - 24 - beneficiaries as required under federal tax law to maintain the tax-qualified treatment of the pension plan and to receive favorable tax treatment on the contributions Hits: 8
Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf Columbia do not allow NOL carrybacks. Eight states limit the amount that can be carried forward or back in any tax year. Tables presenting the treatment of NOLs for each state are enclosed. (Please refer to Tables A and B). As 0 Wisconsin 20/0 1 Nevada, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming do not levy a corporate net income tax. However, Ohio, Texas and Washington levy a gross receipts tax on business activities. Sources: Tax Foundation. Wolters Kluwer CCH IntelliConnect Hits: 7
RTR-May 2012.pdf 7% 9,375.8 3.6% 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 28,112.5 3.0% Total Tax Revenue 1,841.1 7.3% 9,114.2 3.3% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 27,258.8 3.6% Total Corporation Taxes 81.3 -28.2% 2,942.0 -1.1% 3.0% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% 4,815.3 Hits: 7
RTR-Mar 2012.pdf 1% 7,935.2 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 27,872.3 3.5% Total Tax Revenue 4,011.7 1.9% 7,849.8 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 3.4% 27,043.6 4.8% Total Corporation Taxes 2,274.4 3.6% 2,434.6 3.0% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% -2.1% 4,926 Hits: 7
RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf 5% 8,097.7 -2.3% 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 27,678.0 0.7% Total Tax Revenue 2,663.5 -4.0% 7,766.0 1.4% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 27,148.6 2.6% Total Corporation Taxes 651.0 29.5% 1,318.7 2.9% 3.0% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% 4,963.8 Hits: 7
RTR-Feb 2012.pdf 3% 6,144.5 1.3% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 27,788.7 3.5% Total Tax Revenue 1,687.7 12.0% 6,093.4 1.9% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 3.4% 26,967.7 4.9% Total Corporation Taxes 64.1 -20.1% 620.0 -4.2% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% -2.1% 4,846.7 2 Hits: 7
RTR-Apr 2012.pdf 7% 9,186.2 4.3% 2.4% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 27,994.3 2.5% Total Tax Revenue 3,261.4 2.8% 8,960.8 4.0% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 27,133.8 3.5% Total Corporation Taxes 586.3 -11.9% 2,924.8 -0.5% 3.0% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% 4,847.2 Hits: 7
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf Dollar millions. PIT is personal income. January revenue preliminary. Figures control for processing delays last fiscal year. Sales and Use Tax Slide 11 Jan 2024 Roundtable YOY Growth Rate 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 2023.4 Sales and Use Tax Non-Motor Vehicle 3.5% 1.7% 1.8% 0.3% Motor Vehicle 7.5% -0.1% -3.0% -1 Hits: 7
Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf 2% 6,160.6 0.6% 2.8% 0.6% 7.3% 3.1% 27,615.8 3.0% Total Tax Revenue 2,150.4 -3.2% 6,118.7 1.2% 3.5% 3.7% 9.3% 3.4% 26,786.7 4.3% Total Corporation Taxes 96.1 6.8% 595.4 -3.2% -7.5% 2.4% 20.4% -2.1% 4,862.8 3 Hits: 7
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf Points Raised by Advocates:  Alleviates poverty.  Greater job satisfaction.  Less turnover.  Expands the economy and generates tax revenues.  Reduces expenditures on healthcare programs (Medicaid). Raised by Opponents:  They are "starter" wages paid to inexperienced workers Assume 65% is Passed Forward 0.4% 2.7% 0.9% Note: Increase in Total Costs also includes higher payroll taxes. Adjustment for consumer response assumes a price elasticity of demand equal to -0.5. Assumes constant profit margin. Source: "Analysis Hits: 7
Pirates_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf fan attendance and the economic footprint; (2) the 2023 economic footprint of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ MLB operations; and (3) state taxes generated from those operations. Key Findings and Highlights • For 2023, the Pirates won 76 games, the most since 2018. Paid 3,000 full-time equivalent jobs were sup- ported by the spending. • The economic footprint includes $22 million in state taxes: $10 million in sales tax, $9 million in personal income tax and $4 million in other state taxes. Local taxes Hits: 7
Phillies_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf fan attendance and the economic footprint; (2) the 2023 economic footprint of the Philadelphia Phillies’ MLB operations; and (3) state taxes generated from those operations. Key Findings and Highlights • For 2023, the Phillies’ 90-win season and postsea- son appearance recorded 5,400 full-time equivalent jobs were sup- ported by the spending. • The economic footprint includes $45 million in state taxes: $22 million in sales tax, $16 million in personal income tax and $7 million in other state taxes. Local taxes Hits: 7
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf Share of Spending for Age 65+ 2005-06 2014-15 Change Housing 37.3% 40.6% +3.3% Mortgage-Rent-Tax 21.4% 24.5% +3.1% Utilities-Other 15.9% 16.1% +0.2% Transportation 15.8% 14.9% -0 Funding Trends  Revenue outlook is modest.  Partly due to maturation of economy.  Also due to long-term tax base erosion.  Strong growth in demand for government programs and services.  Price pressures that exceed normal inflation.  Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdf forecasting firm publishes state-level data. The home sales contraction directly impacts the state General Fund through the Realty Transfer Tax (RTT); a 1% tax on the sales price of an existing home or business (local units also levy a 1% tax). Through September, calendar Hits: 7
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf issued to Pennsylvanians in 2021, which suggests $1.5 billion will be used for personal consumption. Pandemic Boosts Pennsylvania Cigarette Tax Collections An article by the WSJ notes that the national trend of declining cigarette sales (-5.5% in 2019) has slowed during the pandemic. A review of cigarette tax collections from July 2020 to February 2021 reveals this trend also applies to Pennsylvania. The Commonwealth levies a $2.60 Hits: 7
MER-2014-12.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 7
MER-2014-03.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year‐over‐year Hits: 7
MER-2014-01.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year‐over‐year Hits: 7
MER-2013-12.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-year Hits: 7
MER-2013-11.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 7
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf 50 1.70 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 +47% +24% +53% 2018 Q1 = 1.00 +49% +67% pre-COVID economy Tax Revenues Surge During COVID November 15, 2022 13 18-19 to Share of GDP 21-22 18-19 21-22 Diff PA Nominal GDP ($ billions) 12.6% General Fund Tax Revenue 27.7% 4.33% 4.91% +0.58% PIT Non-Withheld 67.0 0.46 0.69 +0.22 Hits: 7
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf CY) 2021, which will be remitted in April 2022. It also converts the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2021 Impact Fee Revenues The estimate for the CY 2021 Hits: 7
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf CY) 2020, which will be remitted in April 2021. It also converts the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 2020 Impact Fee Revenues The estimate for the CY 2020 Hits: 7
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 7
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 7
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 7
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 7
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 7
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehi- cle sales taxes. 3 Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over- Hits: 7
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf on latest three months of data. Data are from the US Department of Labor - Survey of Establish- ments. Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of sales taxes based on latest three months of collections. Excludes motor vehicle sales taxes. Motor Vehicle Sales Taxes Year-over-year growth Hits: 7
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf rate of 2.4% per annum. March 16, 2022 Page 2 Senator Fontana requested an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors. In FY 2019-20, statewide school district property taxes totaled $15.32 billion. Based on data published by the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), the Hits: 6
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf for FY15-16, a two-year increase of $461 million. Highlights of the FY15-16 forecast include: Corporate Net Income Tax – Revenues are projected to register a small decline based on weakness in estimated payments for March and June, the first two quarterly payments for calendar year 2015 filers. Sales and Use Tax – The forecast projects moderate increases in consumer spending, but low inflation may restrain the overall growth rate of collections. Motor Hits: 6
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf a previous letter transmitted by the office regarding estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. 1 Your updated request specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant 35,000 and $50,000.  Expand the supplemental rebates given to senior homeowners who meet certain income and property tax burden requirements. Specifically, the proposal would increase the household income limit for a supplemental rebate from $30,000 to $50 Hits: 6
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf child care costs, Act 34 of 2023 expanded the Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Credit from 30% of the federal tax credit to 100%. Eligible filers can claim a maximum credit of $1,050 (one dependent) or $2,100 (two or more dependents) against personal income tax. For FY 2024-25, the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue estimates that 218,800 filed tax returns will claim $125 million Hits: 6
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf of Fiscal Year November 18, 2020 7 Mitigation Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul to Oct Notes General Fund Tax -9.2% 0.4% year-over-year growth rate Corporate Net Income -12.3% -5.2% much better than expected Cigarette -39.2% 8.6% processing issues Inheritance 5.9% -11.7% Realty Transfer -30.9% 6.2% All Other Tax -7.7% 2.0% Note: Growth rates control for revenue shifts for tax relief and miscellaneous one-time transfers. Excludes Hits: 6
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf Activity 9: Administration ................................................................................................... 27 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 29 Number of Licensees by Board and Position .....................................................................29 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................35 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 6
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf 0 SNAP 0.9 1.4 2.4 Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) 11.1 21.4 32.5 Expanded Child Tax Credit 0.0 3.5 3.5 Total Individual Programs 38.4 40.5 78.9 PPP Forgivable Loans $20 large scale fraud that flows out of state (i.e., PUA program) ▪ 12 weeks remain \| total value is ~$6,800 (tax free) When will workers return? Depends… ▪ Compute the tradeoff \| what is gained vs lost ▪ Assume: workers have one-year time Hits: 6
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf Projecting the Components of the Act 1 Index Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials March 17, 2021 Statewide School Property Tax Growth Rates 2 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 16- 18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 All School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Note: Includes Current and Interim, Act 1 Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Hits: 6
Newsstand_2018_May.pdf the sixth consecutive year. These factors produced stronger-than-anticipated revenues for wage, sales, business, property, and real estate transfer taxes. The report also discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for 2017 The U discusses the Federal Reserve’s plan of action moving forward based on the report. IRS Releases Preliminary U.S. Income Tax Data for 2016 For most states, income tax revenues came in far below projections for FY 2016-17, leading to Hits: 6
MER-2014-07.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 6
Kling_Presentation.pdf on the model that CBO uses to make long-term projections  An appendix about the effects of the 2017 tax act on the economy and budget  A primer about how CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs Explaining containing the following information:  Historical data  Spending projections by budget account  Revenue projections by category, along with tax parameters and effective marginal tax rates  10-year projections of economic output, prices, labor market measures, interest rates, income Hits: 6
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf Revenues A massive infusion of federal funds, inflation and changes in consumer purchase patterns caused a surge in General Fund tax revenues in FY 2021-22 relative to (1) FY 2018-19 (latest pre-pandemic year) and (2) the overall state shaded red and recorded very strong growth due to inflated asset markets and unusually high profit margins. • Sales and use taxes easily outperformed the overall growth of the Pennsylvania economy (nominal GDP). • Withholding tax revenues (wages) increased at roughly the same Hits: 6
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf Treasury 1.7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.8% 3.2% 3.3% Note: Millions of dollars. Corporate Net Income Tax Rate Reduction November 15, 2023 9 Fiscal Year 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 Revenues: Pre-Tax Cut $6,253 $6,020 $5,819 $5,687 $5,782 $5,949 $6,152 Growth Rate 17.5% -3 Hits: 6
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf standard deviation” •For U.S. as a whole, today, that’s about $425 billion. About 27% of all state-local taxes, up from 7.6% in 1995, 2.7% in 1985 •Even if amortized slowly* it is a lot: •increased contributions risk) for a portfolio with 8% expected return (Standard Deviation) One standard- deviation risk, (billions of 2016 $) State & local government taxes, (billions of 2016 $) One standard- deviation risk, as % of taxes (A) (B) (C = A x B) (D) (E = C ÷ D Hits: 6
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf 7 All Other 4,098 4,437 339 10.1 Treasury earnings Note: Dollar millions. Official estimate is adjusted for tax law changes enacted in December 2023. PIT is personal income. Sales and Use Tax Slide 11 Mid-Year Update YOY Growth Rate 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 2023.4 Sales and Use Tax Hits: 6
Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf Cons. 250,921 Corrections - Criminal Justice Manufacturing Fund 104,616 Drug and Alcohol Substance Abuse Education 8,300 Education Property Tax Relief 766,200 State School Fund 0 Environmental Protection Coal Lands Improvement 175 Conservation District 8,701 Environmental Education 1 465 73,588 204,032 Difference 8,361 16,896 2,026 16,489 17,953 -115,919 Fire Insurance Tax Fund Receipts 84,093 81,159 80,922 75,885 68,497 68,497 Disbursements 88,100 84,311 81 Hits: 5
RB_2024_07_Budget_Update.pdf 24), -$2.0 billion (FY 24-25) and -$3.0 billion (FY 25-26). 1 Those estimates were based on tax law effective at that time and the spending policies embedded in the FY 23-24 budget. Those amounts can now be updated based on the FY 24-25 enacted budget, recent tax law changes and the latest revenue estimates. For the same three fiscal years, the updated deficits are -$892 million (FY Hits: 5
RB-2019-01.pdf which will be remitted in April 2019. 1 This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments Hits: 5
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf us). “The report provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can use to assess the fiscal sustainability of current tax and spending policies,” Knittel said. The report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth major findings include:  The Pennsylvania economy will continue to expand, but at a lackluster pace. Demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth. There are important downside risks associated with global economic weakness and the uncertainties of Hits: 5
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf 19 Revenues Strong Thru October November 19, 2018 9 Gain Thru October Notes Corporate Net Income +$96 profit shifting, older tax years Sales - Non-Motor +$67 very strong growth +8.7% Sales - Motor Vehicle +$30 strong growth Personal Income -$8 statewide IFO official estimate Note: millions of dollars. Gains are relative to IFO official estimate released in June 2018. Sales-Use Tax Collection on Internet Sales November 19, 2018 10 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Hits: 5
PEW_Presentation(Video).pptx How States Are Improving Tax Incentives for Jobs and Growth A national assessment of evaluation practices Chaaron Pearson cpearson@pewtrusts.org The Pew Charitable Trusts 11/16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per Hits: 5
PEW_Presentation(Video).ppsx How States Are Improving Tax Incentives for Jobs and Growth A national assessment of evaluation practices Chaaron Pearson cpearson@pewtrusts.org The Pew Charitable Trusts 11/16/2017 1 pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives pewtrusts.org/ taxincentives Why evaluate tax incentives • Tax incentives are one of states’ primary economic development tools • Tax incentives collectively cost states billions of dollars per Hits: 5
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf Small Business Opportunities ......................................... 33 Activity 11: Metrology ........................................................................................................ 37 Activity 12: Administration ................................................................................................. 39 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 41 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................41 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology \| Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 5
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf of Fiscal Year December 9, 2020 7 Mitigation Period Mar to Jun Recovery Period Jul to Nov Notes General Fund Tax -9.2% 1.2% year-over-year growth rate Corporate Net Income -12.3% -4.2% much better than expected Cigarette -39.2% 6.7% processing issues Inheritance 5.9% -6.2% Realty Transfer -30.9% 9.1% All Other Tax -7.7% 0.8% Note: Growth rates control for revenue shifts for tax relief and miscellaneous one-time transfers. Excludes Hits: 5
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf out Motor License Funds ($500m), replace with sales, liquor, and other tobacco, move out of General Fund Eliminate Mobile Telecom Taxes Gross receipts tax (5.0%) and sales tax (6.0%): -$62m Raise Minimum Wage $7.25 to $15.00, effective Jan 1, 2024 Hits: 5
NGIFE-2018.pdf which will be remitted in April 2018. 1 This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. Proceeds from the impact fee are distributed to local governments Hits: 5
Newsstand_January_2020.pdf www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND States Pay $30 Billion per Year on Targeted Tax Breaks A recent article in the Wall Street Journal discusses the benefits of targeted business tax incentives offered by state and local governments. A study conducted by economists at Columbia Business School and Princeton University found Hits: 5
Newsstand_2019_March.pdf four calendar years were as follows: 2.1% (2015), 2.5% (2016), 2.3% (2017) and 3.0% (2018). IRS Tax Refunds Down but Average Refund Up Slightly On March 15, the IRS released the latest tax refund statistics for the 2019 filing season. Through March 9, the data show that the number (-3.3%) and dollar Hits: 5
Newsstand_2018_October.pdf sources suggest that the Pennsylvania economy recorded robust growth for the third quarter of 2018. Based on non-motor sales tax collections, taxable consumer and business spending increased 8.3% compared to the prior year. The comparable figure for motor vehicle sales tax was 9.9%. The preliminary annual rate of net payroll job creation for the quarter was 68,000, compared to Hits: 5
MER-2015-04.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 5
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf half. Through December, revenues are $65 million below the IFO estimate. Revenues have been characterized by weak nonmotor vehicle sales tax receipts and lackluster personal income tax remittances from wage and salary withholding. The table below displays first half growth rates for the General Fund and its Hits: 5
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf undergoing dramatic transformation.  Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade.  Subtle impacts on economic growth and tax revenues.  Difficult to quantify. Must view long-term trends.  Key factor: Baby Boomers and their characteristics:  Sheer 4 Share PA Population Age 65+ 15.4% 17.0% 19.0% 21.4% 23.0% Approximate Share of State Taxes Paid by Age 65+ Personal Income 15% to 18% Sales and Use 20% to 24% Property (homeowners) 29% to 34% Hits: 5
Supplemental_Table.pdf 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 Total General Fund $34,780 $33,914 $34,752 $33,972 $28 -$58 Total Tax Revenue 31,922 33,180 32,158 33,361 -237 -181 Corporate Net Income 2,991 3,318 3,010 903 13,400 14,127 -100 -224 Inheritance 1,009 1,022 1,013 1,062 -3 -40 All Other Tax 1,911 1,929 1,869 1,903 42 26 Total Non-Tax 2,859 734 2,594 611 265 Hits: 4
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf gains, which will accrue disproportionately to high income households. From 2012 to 2018, total reported capital gains on federal income tax returns increased by roughly 56 percent, or 7.7 percent per annum during the six- year time period, which is much higher than the growth rate of other income sources. Federal tax data reveal that approximately 85 percent of capital gains are reported by taxpayers that would be included in the upper Hits: 4
RB_2023_12_Gasoline_Consumption_Remains_Subdued.pdf Administration. In Pennsylvania, the average annual wholesale price of gasoline (minimum of $2.99 per gallon) is used to compute tax rates for the subsequent calendar year. Due to high prices in 2022, the average wholesale price rose to $3.17 per gallon (not shown) and the gasoline tax rate increased to $0.611 per gallon for 2023. For 2023, the average wholesale price dropped below the $2.99 Hits: 4
RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdf The Property Tax/Rent Rebate (PTRR) program provides property tax relief to Pennsylvania’s elderly, widows, widowers and permanently disabled citizens in the form of rebates. Under program parameters through Hits: 4
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than taxable income reported on the state personal income tax return because it includes Social Security income and employer contributions to pension accounts. However, it does not include capital gains includes state amounts above “normal” payments), economic impact payments (EIPs, $23 billion), emergency SNAP benefits ($4 billion), expanded child care tax credits (CTC, $3 billion), Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans to certain businesses ($4 billion) and non-profits ($1 billion), and Hits: 4
RB 2019 RACP.pdf projects that: o have a regional or multi-jurisdictional impact; o generate substantial increases or maintain current levels of employment, tax revenues or other measures of economic activity; o do not obtain primary funding through other state programs; and o have cultural, historic, recreational or civic significance.  Grants must be eligible for tax-exempt bond funding under federal law.  Total cost of the project must be at least $1,000,000.  Hits: 4
Public_Data-Motor_License_Fund.xlsx Fiscal Year SUMMARY \| DETAIL - LIQUID FUELS TAXES \| DETAIL - LICENSES AND FEES \| DETAIL - OTHER MOTOR RECEIPTS (dollar amounts in millions) \| (dollar amounts in millions) \| (dollar amounts in millions) \| (dollar amounts in millions) Fiscal Year Total Motor License Fund Total of Liquid Fuels Taxes Total of Licenses and Fees Total of Other Motor Receipts \| Liquid Fuels Fuel Use Motor Carriers/ IFTA Alternative Fuels Oil Hits: 4
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf State Workers’ Insurance Fund 199 4.8% 150 14.8% Administration and Support 173 4.1% 121 12.0% UC Tax Services 171 4.1% 27 2.6% UC Appeals 131 3.1% 19 1.8% Occupational and Industrial Safety 111 five sites accounted for 74% of visitors (Lancaster, Erie, Allegheny, Centre counties) PHMC administers federal and state historic programs and tax credits ▪ $2.0 billion in qualified rehabilitation expenditures (FY 16-17 to FY 20-21) ▪ Most historic preservation projects that Hits: 4
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf 7: Pennsylvania Council on the Arts...................................................................................... 33 Activity 8: PA Human Relations Commission ..................................................................................... 35 Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... 39 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ..................................................... 39 Agency Response ....................................................................................................................... 40 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 4
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf Quality Assurance ..................................................................... 33 Activity 6: Advocate for Older Adults ................................................................................................ 37 Activity 7: Administration ................................................................................................................ 39 Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... 41 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ..................................................... 41 Agency Response ....................................................................................................................... 42 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 4
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf 27 Activity 7: OSFC Training and Certification ................................................................ 31 Activity 8: Administration ......................................................................................... 33 Appendix ................................................................................................................ 35 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .............................. 35 Additional PEMA Grants ........................................................................................ 36 Agency Response ................................................................................................. 37 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 4
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf Medical Services ...................................................... 35 Activity 12: State Laboratory .............................................................................................. 37 Activity 13: Administration ................................................................................................. 39 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 41 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................41 Agency Response...........................................................................................................42 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 4
NewsStand_2019_August.pdf workers with a Bachelor’s degree or less were relatively small when compared to workers with advanced degrees. New Federal Tax Data Reflect Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act The IRS released tax filing statistics for 2018 federal returns filed through July 2019. The total Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_July.pdf underlying data show strong growth in U.S. exports and equipment investment by businesses. U.S. Capital Gains Surged in Tax Year 2017 On June 26, the IRS released preliminary data for federal income tax returns filed for tax year 2017. The data show that capital gains increased by 41.4% across all filers. For Hits: 4
Newsstand_2018_August.pdf led by gains in consumer spending for clothing and restaurants. (The retail data exclude spend- ing on services.) Recent sales tax data from Pennsylvania also suggest strong consumer spending. For May to July, sales tax collections increased by 7.5% from the same time period in the prior year. That pace reflects the strongest 3- Hits: 4
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf savings are expected to translate to higher consumer spending on goods and services, netting an additional $60 million in sales tax collections.” Knittel cautioned that reductions in the estimates for other revenue sources offset some of the gains from the improved payments for 2013. Sales and Use 160 Lower gasoline prices and stronger consumer confidence. Inheritance 100 Large one-time inheritance tax payment. Other 30 Mainly related to the NIZ and CRIZ programs. ------ Subtotal – Increases 520 Decreases Non-Tax Revenue -160 No Hits: 4
MER-2015-06.pdf 000s) Average year-over-year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2015-03.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2015-02.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2015-01.pdf 000s) Average year-over-year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales-Use Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year-over-year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2014-11.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2014-10.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2014-09.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2014-08.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2014-06.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of all sales and use taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2014-05.pdf 000s) Average year‐over‐year net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of nonmotor and motor vehicle taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
MER-2014-04.pdf Net Job Gains (000s) Average net increase in payroll employment based on latest three months of data. 2 Sales‐Use Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of nonmotor and motor vehicle taxes based on latest three months of collections. 3 Realty Transfer Taxes Year‐over‐year growth rate of realty transfer taxes Hits: 4
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf exceeds that threshold. The results for the three bills are as follows: • HB 105 allows conformity to the federal income tax code for like-kind exchanges (Section 1031 of the Internal Revenue Code). The IFO estimates a negative revenue impact of that declines to $20 to $25 million per annum after several years. • HB 333 allows conformity to the federal income tax code for Section 179 expensing for pass- through entities. For the current tax year, Section 179 allows full expensing of Hits: 4
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf Non-Withholding 2,920 3,219 298 10.2% All Tobacco 1,077 1,025 -52 -4.8% All Other Tax 2,453 2,536 82 3.4% All Non-Tax 2,456 769 -1,687 -68.7% Note: Millions of dollars. PIT is personal income tax. The Pennsylvania Labor Market Hits: 4
Electricity_Update_2024.pdf 2023 generation. Generation Emissions Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 A factor that likely impacts that outcome is the Commonwealth provides tax credits to eligible facilities that generate electricity with coal refuse. The annual cap for the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation tax credit is $20 million, and the entire amount was awarded in FY 2022-23. For 2021, an IFO report found Hits: 4
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf see www.cbo.gov/about/products. CBO’s reports cover every major area of federal policy, including spending programs, the tax code, and budgetary and economic challenges. The reports often present options for changes in the federal program or tax rules under consideration, but they make no recommendations. CBO Publishes About 70 Reports, Testimonies, and Working Papers Each Year 5 Hits: 4
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf for Class DC members and DC-only participants in SERS.  Voluntary participant contributions could be made on an after-tax basis, subject to applicable Federal limitations, or via an eligible roll-over or direct trustee-to-trustee Exhibit I Page  DC plan mandatory participant contributions would be 2.75% of pay. Mandatory participant contributions are intended to be pre-tax “pickup” contributions.  The DC plan employer contribution would be 2.25% of pay.  Participant contributions to the DC Hits: 4
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf funds. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO's Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2023). Tax revenues for FY 2029-30 and beyond are assumed to grow at the same rate as nominal state GDP (S to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the phase-in of the reduced corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. It is noted that all revenue (IFO) and economic (S&P Global) projections assume that Hits: 3
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf funds. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO's Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2022). Tax revenues for FY 2028-29 and beyond are assumed to grow at the same rate as nominal state GDP (IHS to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the phase-in of the reduced corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. The IFO analysis also projects the share of pension contributions that will be made using Hits: 3
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf but a comparison of forecasts suggests that the IFO forecast reflects stronger current economic activity (i.e., sales and use tax and withholding) as well as activity attributable to tax year 2020 (i.e., final corporate net income and personal income tax payments). Neither the IFO estimate nor the estimate Hits: 3
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf 2019 2020 2021 2022 +42% +24% +50% 2018 Q1 = 1.00 +48% +68% pre-COVID economy Baseline Forecast: Big 3 Tax Revenues January 24, 2023 12 Corp Net Income +1.7% avg ann growth (AAGR) from base year PIT Non-Wage Use +2.9% AAGR PIT Withholding +4.1% AAGR PA Economy +4.1% AAGR Notes: Big 3 are 85% of tax revenues. Excludes CNIT changes and new SUT transfer. 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 Hits: 3
Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on August 16, 2019. 1 The new request provides a proposed rebate for school district property taxes paid up to $5,000 for homeowners age 65 or older with household incomes of $60,000 or less. Using for 2017 and grow to $1.09 billion by 2019. As before, senior homeowner rebates used for the current Property Tax Rent Rebate Program could be deducted from that gross amount to derive a net cost (roughly $970 million). Based on Hits: 3
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf can qualify for up to $20,000 of debt relief. The forgiven debt would not be subject to federal income tax. • The student loan forbearance is extended through December 2022. It is the seventh extension (two under the prior administration), and Pennsylvania is generally comparable to the U.S. average. For 2019, IRS data show that 19.7% of all income tax filers reported more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income on the federal tax return. For Pennsylvania, the share was Hits: 3
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf rates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November 2022). 4 Tax revenues for FY 2028-29 and beyond are assumed to grow at the same rate as nominal state GDP (IHS are assumed to grow at a rate of 2% per annum. Estimates include the reduction of the corporate net income tax rate through tax year 2031. 1 See: Stress Testing Analysis: Pennsylvania Public School Employees’ Retirement (December 2022). 2 A scenario Hits: 3
PBB_TaxCredits_Schedule_2022_Update.pdf Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule Year Performance-Based Budgets 1 Corrections Board of Probation and Parole PA Commission on Crime & Delinquency Juvenile Labor and Industry 5 Drug and Alcohol Programs Insurance Revenue Executive Offices Environmental Hearing Board Conservation and Natural Resources Year Tax Credits 1 Film Production New Jobs Historic Preservation Incentive 2 Research and Development Keystone Innovation Zones Mobile Telecom and Broadband Hits: 3
PBB_Board_Hearing_Request_May_4_2021.pdf regional breakdown of the Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) and a county breakdown of the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credits as requested as follow-up during the Performance-Based Budget Board hearing on April 26, 2021. If you have Executive Director, Office of Performance through Excellence Joshua Phoebus, Director of Performance and Transformation, Office of Performance through Excellence NAP Tax Credit Awards by Region for FY 2019-20 Source: Reprinted from DCED's annual report on the Neighborhood Assistance Program Hits: 3
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf Regulation .......................................................................................................... 17 Activity 5: Liquidations, Rehabilitations and Special Funds ................................................................... 21 Activity 6: Administration ................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 29 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ....................................................... 29 Agency Response .......................................................................................................................... 30 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 3
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf 19 Activity 3: Quality Improvement ......................................................................................................... 27 Activity 4: Licensing .......................................................................................................................... 31 Activity 5: Administration ................................................................................................................... 35 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 37 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ....................................................... 37 Agency Response .......................................................................................................................... 38 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 3
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf Activity 4: Facility Design and Construction ......................................................................................... 23 Activity 5: Administration and Geological Survey ................................................................................. 27 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 31 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ....................................................... 31 Agency Response .......................................................................................................................... 32 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 3
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Third-Party Liability ........................................................................ 81 Activity 14: Hearings and Appeals ...................................................................................................... 85 Activity 15: Administration ................................................................................................................. 87 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 91 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ....................................................... 91 Agency Response .......................................................................................................................... 92 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background on Performance-Based Budgeting \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 3
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf 43 Activity 10: Administration and Support .................................................................. 45 Activity 10: Administration and Support (Addendum) ............................................... 48 Appendix ............................................................................................................. 49 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule............................. 49 Agency Response............................................................................................... 50 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 3
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Keystone State ChalleNGe Academy ......................................................... 25 Activity 5: Facilities Maintenance .............................................................................. 29 Activity 6: Administration ......................................................................................... 31 Appendix ................................................................................................................ 33 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .............................. 33 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 3
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf Mental Health Programs (Addendum) .................................................................... 59 Activity 12: State Hospitals ................................................................................................................ 61 Activity 13: Licensing ........................................................................................................................ 65 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 67 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule ....................................................... 67 Agency Response .......................................................................................................................... 68 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background on Performance-Based Budgeting \| Page 1 Background on Performance-Based Budgeting Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all Hits: 3
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf LIHEAP Eligibility and Benefits........................................................................... 45 Activity 14: Other Program Eligibility/Benefits ...................................................................... 49 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 51 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................51 Agency Response...........................................................................................................52 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 3 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 3
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf Energy Programs ............................................................................................. 41 Activity 16: Laboratory Services.......................................................................................... 43 Activity 17: Administration ................................................................................................. 45 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 47 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................47 Agency Response...........................................................................................................48 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology \| Page 1 Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 3
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf 27 Activity 6: School Safety and Security ................................................................................. 31 Activity 7: Administration ................................................................................................... 33 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 35 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................35 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology \| Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 3
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf Support Services (Addendum) ............................... 13 Activity 2: Juvenile Justice System Enhancement Strategy .......................................... 15 Appendix ................................................................................................................. 19 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .............................. 19 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology \| Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 3
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf Examinations .............................................. 15 Activity 4: Education and Outreach ..................................................................................... 17 Activity 5: Administration ................................................................................................... 21 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 23 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................23 Agency Response...........................................................................................................24 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology \| Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 3
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf Parole Supervision ........................................................................................... 35 Activity 12: Victim Services ................................................................................................ 39 Activity 13: Administration ................................................................................................. 41 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 45 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................45 Agency Response...........................................................................................................46 - This page intentionally left blank. - PBB Background and Methodology \| Page 1 PBB Background and Methodology Act 48 of 2017 is known as the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for all agencies under Hits: 3
PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdf Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Senator Browne 10:05am - 10:15am Overview of Tax Credit Reviews - Independent Fiscal Office Matt Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 10:15am - 11:30am Review of Tax Credits (Film Production, New Jobs & Historical Preservation Incentive) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department of Revenue Scott Dunkelberger Hits: 3
PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdf Street, Harrisburg, PA 10:00am - 10:05am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Senator Browne 10:05am - 10:15am Overview of Tax Credit Reviews - Independent Fiscal Office Matt Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 10:15am - 12:00pm Review of Tax Credits (Film Production, New Jobs & Historical Preservation Incentive) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department of Revenue Scott Dunkelberger Hits: 3
Newsstand_2019_April.pdf Excluding energy, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased by 1.9% from the prior year. - April 2019- National News Federal Income Tax Refunds Remain Below Prior Year On a weekly basis, the IRS releases the latest data regarding federal income tax refunds processed and paid. Through April 12, total IRS refunds processed were down 1.9% compared to the same time Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf to continue operations. For FY 2019-20, the primary driver of this outcome is the projected reduction in earned income tax revenues, with an estimated shortfall of $526 million. Other revenue sources including amusement tax (-25%), parking revenue (-20%) and business tax (-20%) are projected to record the largest percentage declines. Across the six regions Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdf income foregone if the home had been rented. By far, the single largest CPI-U component. Excludes maintenance and property taxes. Food At Home (7.6%) Groceries purchased for off-premise consumption. Excludes dining out. Compared to the prior year, inflation 12. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 13. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf to Show Net Outflow from PA The IRS recently released migration data by state in 2019 compared to 2018. The tax data show that Pennsylvania had a net outflow of 13,126 residents to other states (excludes international migration). The states When using IRS migration data, three caveats should be noted. First, the data only reflect residents who must file a tax return or those who are a dependent of a filer. Second, many low-income seniors do not need to file Hits: 3
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdf income foregone if the home had been rented. By far, the single largest CPI-U component. Excludes maintenance and property taxes. For July 2023, the OER component increased 7.9% from a year ago and 1.0% compared to June 2023 12. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 13. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of Hits: 3
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf prices also impact the General Fund. If one-third of generation is exported, then gross receipts and sales and use taxes could increase by roughly $40 million per annum. Second, generation is higher and the mix is different than assumed by assumes a 3.57 kwh savings per dollar of revenue spending on energy efficiency. • Potential material impact on gross receipts tax (~$33 million) and sales and use tax (~$10 million, both assume one-third of generation exported). $0.00 $2.00 Hits: 3
IFO_Response_Letter_Feb_21_2023.pdf 1. A one-time adjustment of the cap on NOL deductions from 40% to 44% of taxable income, applicable to tax year (TY) 2023 and later. 2. An adjustment of the cap on NOL deductions from 40% to 45% of taxable page. Overall, the impact is notably smaller than in prior IFO analyses of similar proposals due to corporate net income tax (CNIT) changes enacted under Act 53-2022. In part, those changes reduce the CNIT rate gradually from 8.99% for Hits: 3
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf 14 to 2018-19, provides data and analysis that policymakers and residents can use to assess the sustainability of current tax and spending policies. It is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). “The report finds five year projections.  The Pennsylvania economy will expand, but at a moderate pace. Long-term demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth.  The number of working-aged residents between ages 20 and 64 will remain Hits: 3
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf 2023-24 and FY 2027-28. February 7, 2023 Page 4 Representative Keefer requested a copy of the 50-state tax burden report. A copy of the IFO’s State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison report released on January 19, 2022 is enclosed. An updated report for state and local Hits: 3
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf Note: Gasolineprice for Central Atlantic. Source: EIA. Two Federal Stimulus Tsunamis Subside…. Slide 5 Feb 2024 Economic Summit PA Sales Tax Growth US Check-Save Balances Note: US Data for Q4. Sources: FRB and FDIC. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 Labor Market • Very high rate of recent jobs creation • Depletion of excess savings, delayed interest rate impact • Real-time: withholding tax revenues decelerate • YTD New UI Claims up +14% YOY, but remain relatively low Slide 12 Feb 2024 Economic Summit 0 Hits: 3
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf 6% COVID-19 Demographic Trends by Age Group \| Page 6 Dependency Ratios Working-age residents remit the majority of state tax revenues that support dependents who attend school and elderly residents who require dedicated healthcare services. Demographers use two metrics known a smaller group of taxpayers. The actual contraction of the working-age cohort, which remits the great majority of state taxes, suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase Hits: 3
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf 9% COVID-19 Demographic Trends by Age Group \| Page 6 Dependency Ratios Working-age residents remit the majority of state tax revenues that support dependents attending school and elderly residents who require dedicated healthcare services. Demographers use two metrics known as a smaller group of taxpayers. The actual contraction of the working-age cohort, which remits the great majority of state taxes, suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase Hits: 3
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide updated estimates for the reduction in school property taxes due to the implementation of Act 25 of 2011. The request also included an estimate of the impact on residential salaries (by fiscal year) grew by 3.2% per annum during this period. • Land use values published by the State Tax Equalization Board (STEB). These data show that residential property accounts for 67% of statewide property value while non-residential accounts Hits: 3
2020 PBB Agenda.pdf am Call to Order/Opening Remarks Senator Vincent J. Hughes, PBB Chairman 9:35 am – 9:45 am Overview of Tax Credit Reviews and Review of Process Changes from Year 1 to Year 2 – Independent Fiscal Office Matt Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 9:45 am – 11:00 am Review of Tax Credits (Research & Development, Keystone Innovation Zones, Mobile Telecom & Broadband, Organ & Bone Marrow) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department Hits: 3
WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf Other, $63, 7% July 14, 2020 4 Note: Dollars in millions. Other category includes Judicial Services, Social Services, Information Technology, Tax Reductions, Water Preservation and Reclamation, Housing, Planning Initiatives, and Career and Technical Centers. Source: PUC. Southwest County Disbursements July 14 of decline.  Quarterly production growth has been decelerating for the last 5 quarters. Other Implications  State liquid fuels taxes down in FY19-20, projected to decline further in FY20-21.  IFO to release report estimating local revenue losses Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf above receipts in the prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO’s official estimate occurs before June sales tax remittances and the quarterly estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is based on collections through May and the IFO’s Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf 6.8 percent) from the prior year. “The two largest General Fund revenue sources, sales and use and personal income taxes, are meeting or slightly exceeding expectations,” Knittel noted. “The upward revision in the estimate is largely because of unexpected revenue from the corporate net income tax and unclaimed property.” FY 2015-16 unrestricted General Fund revenues are projected to be $30.72 billion, an increase of Hits: 2
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf below receipts in the prior fiscal year. The statutory deadline for the IFO’s official estimate occurs before June sales tax remittances and the quarterly estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is based on collections through May and the IFO’s Hits: 2
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf market is less robust than current published data suggest, and that is supported by real-time data on withheld income tax revenues. For the last three quarters, YOY withholding tax revenue growth is as follows: 4.4% (2023 Q3), 4.2% (2023 Q4) and 4.0% (2024 Q1, estimate based Hits: 2
RB_2023_06_Jackpot_Lottery.pdf of COVID-19 stay-at- home orders in FY 2019-20 and extra disposal income from various pandemic payments and tax credits. Game/ Fiscal Year Amount ($ millions) Growth (%) Number Cash Value Advertised Estimated Value Advertised to Cash Value Ratio Mega Millions for older adults ($353 million),  Programs within PennDOT to provide transportation for older adults ($171 million) and  Property Tax and Rent Rebate (PTRR) program (includes administration, $244 million). 5 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Karen Maynard Hits: 2
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf the current lack of income phase-outs for expanded SNAP benefits (emergency allotments) that effectively result in a marginal income tax rate that could approach 100% for certain workers (i.e., a vertical benefits cliff). Economic research finds that very high marginal tax rates clearly discourage labor force participation. CreationDate: 2022-10-25 17:07:05 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate Hits: 2
Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf Recent Revenue and Economic Trends IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus - April 17, 2019 Growth Rate General Fund Tax Revenues 2017.3 2017.4 2018.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 Non-Motor Sales (base, see S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth Rates: PIT Withholding and Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, April 17, 2019. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4 Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf directs the IFO to develop performance-based budget (PBB) plans for each agency under the Governor’s jurisdiction and conduct tax credit reviews every fifth year  The IFO and Budget Secretary jointly develop the schedule for PBB plans and tax credit reviews  Year 1 agencies include: Corrections Board of Probation and Parole PA Commission on Crime and Delinquency Juvenile Hits: 2
Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf Recent Revenue and Economic Trends Growth Rate or Change General Fund Tax Revenues (YOY) 2017.12017.22017.32017.42018.12018.22018.3 Non-Motor SUT (base)1.8% 2.4% 2.9% IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, October 9, 2018. Growth Rates: PIT Withholding and Non-Motor Vehicle Sales Tax IFO Presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus, October 9, 2018. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4 Hits: 2
novak ppt.pdf Office January 18, 2012 Jason Novak Research and Policy Support Manager Half Empty or Half Full? • Increased economic activity equals tax revenue increases if and only if the tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further employment and spending cuts Gross Domestic Product Pennsylvania * 4-quarter growth Hits: 2
Newsstand_2018_June.pdf excluded, then the profits growth rate increases to 5.8%. (See Table 6.16D.) Due to the federal corporate income tax cut, after-tax profits re- tained by corporations increased by 35.8% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis. IFO Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf 12. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 7. Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average sales and use tax (SUT) collections. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 13. The U3 (official) unemployment rate is total unemployed as a percent of Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average personal income tax (PIT) withholding collections. Adjusts for transfers and payment date shifts. Source: PA Department of Revenue. 4. Annual change in average Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf total PCE ($14.4 trillion) shifted to 66% services and 34% goods. On net, this shift likely enhances Pennsylvania sales tax revenues, as many goods are taxed but services are generally exempt. Consumer Debt Increases from Prior Year, Credit Card Balances Continue to Decline The New York Hits: 2
MidYear_PublicBriefing_Jan2018.pdf for General Fund revenues for FY 2017-18. The presentation will also include a discussion of the impact of federal tax law changes on the state economy and tax revenues and a preliminary revenue outlook for FY 2018-19. Mid-Year Revenue Update www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO Hits: 2
Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf 1) a modest reduction in the projected cost savings, (2) an increase in federal funds derived from the gross receipts tax mechanism and (3) the reformatting of tables to provide separate totals with and without additional federal funds associated with the gross receipts tax. The final change reflects the uncertainty regarding those additional federal funds. Please refer to the note at the front of Hits: 2
Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf average value of the weekly transfer is equivalent to $24.70 (traditional) or $19.60 (PUA) per hour if the tax-free status of UC benefits is included (excludes any federal income tax). If employed 15 hours per week, then the equivalent wage rate doubles. The IFO projects that many traditional UC recipients Hits: 2
jackson ppt.pdf Scenario: Double-Dip Recession (30%) • Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis leads to a global credit crunch. • Policymakers allow the payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment insurance benefits to expire in March 2012. • Consumers retrench as asset values and real incomes erode The Federal Reserve’s powers to support growth are limited. • Fiscal tightening is coming, but the big issues (entitlements and taxes) will not be settled until after the 2012 elections. • Pent-up demand for housing will eventually lead to stronger economic Hits: 2
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf from the prior year. “The three largest General Fund revenue sources, corporate net income, sales and use and personal income taxes, are underperforming in FY 2016-17,” Knittel noted. “The downward revision in the estimate is largely attributable to a decline in corporate profits and weak consumer spending. Income shifting from 2016 to 2017 in anticipation of lower federal tax rates may have contributed to the weak collections.” FY 2017-18 unrestricted General Fund revenues are projected to be $32 Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf of the expenditure growth in the near term. However, the annual growth begins to moderate after FY 2016-17. • Slow tax base erosion and “normal” expenditure growth become the primary drivers of the structural imbalance. Net revenues are projected to increase 20-64) and an increase of 2.8 percent per annum in the 65+ cohort. These demographic trends will restrain tax revenues and increase expenditures due to the rise in the service population. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal Hits: 2
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf 8% COVID-19 Demographic Trends by Age Group \| Page 7 Dependency Ratios Working-age residents remit the majority of state tax revenues that support dependents who attend school and advanced age residents who require dedicated healthcare services. Demographers use two metrics fall on a smaller group of taxpayers. The actual contraction of the working-age cohort suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase in demand for healthcare and other Hits: 2
2019-Pub-2.pdf next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Katherine Loughead, Tax Foundation: Modernizing Pennsylvania's Tax Code as a Strategy for Growth Matt Gardner, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy: Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Hits: 2
Pensions No. 205, as amended, 53 P.S. Section 895.101, et seq. (Act 205 of 1984) . • Foreign Casualty Insurance Premiums Tax Distribution Act, act of May 12, 1943, P.L. 259, No. 120, as amended, 72 P.S. Sections 2263.1-2263.3. • Tax Reform Code, Act of March 4, 1971, P.L. 6, No. 2, art. IX, § 902, as amended, 72 P.S Hits: 2
Pensions Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) into compliance with the following Federal laws: 1) the Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008 ("HEART Act"); 2) the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act of 1994 ("USERRA"); and 3) Internal System (SERS) Codes to bring SERS into compliance with the following Federal laws: 1) the Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008 (HEART Act); 2) the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act of 1994 (USERRA); and 3) Internal Hits: 2
Pensions and made technical amendments to the plan intended to ensure that the Allegheny County Employees' Retirement System is maintained as tax qualified under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986. Legislative Session 2011 - 2012 Act 2012 - 43 (House Bill Number 1702, Printer applicable to municipal pension systems; and 5) provide special remedies applicable to the cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, including special taxing provisions. Act 2009 - 51 (Senate Bill Number 369, Printer's Number 1478). Signed into law on October 9, 2009, Act Hits: 2
Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf 4%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf 2%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf 7%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and 1 The agreement between the Commonwealth and the PFBC is only a one-year contract. 2 workers’ compensation payments Hits: 1
Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf 7%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdf 2%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf 0%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
UFCW_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
SEIU_Local_668_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
SEIU_Local_668_UC_Referees_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
SEIU_HCPA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf 9%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 1%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdf for 2022 Q2 and Q3. That was the highest average price recorded by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Gasoline taxes fund 55% of state road and bridge construction, and reduced consumption implies that Pennsylvania will have less state funds available Hits: 1
RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdf AFSCME CBA have a budget impact of $209 million. The related impact on employer-paid benefits (e.g., pensions, payroll taxes) and healthcare contributions increases the budget impact to $385 million. By FY 2026-27, the budget impact of salary adjustments Hits: 1
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdf which includes state employment data by age group. The QWI is a longitudinal dataset based on administrative records such as tax returns and quarterly filings by firms in the Unemployment Insurance system. The database includes approximately 90% of payroll employment, but Hits: 1
RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdf hours per week at $15 per hour ($1,200 per month, $1,052 after state-local income and employee payroll taxes). Households could gain significant benefits if members work less to move below the threshold. While emergency allotments provide relief, they Hits: 1
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf source is the Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The data source is based on tax and administrative returns and records filed with state and federal agencies (compared to much smaller samples used for labor force Hits: 1
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf of income available. For example, the income measure is much broader than taxable income reported on the state personal income tax return because it includes Social Security income and employer contributions to pension accounts. However, it does not include capital gains Hits: 1
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf source is the Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The data source is based on tax and administrative returns and records filed with state and federal agencies (compared to much smaller samples used for labor force Hits: 1
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf wage data through 2021 Q2 published by the BEA. Those data are extended based on the YOY growth of withholding tax revenues, which are typically an accurate predictor of wage growth. Withholding data for 2021 Q3 suggest YOY wage growth of Hits: 1
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf power due to higher inflation during 2021 to 2023. The impact is the same as a $17,450 lump sum tax on benefits because the payments are fixed and not indexed to inflation. The analysis assumes that higher prices are permanent Hits: 1
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf an interpolation using the 2015 and 2017 data points. The adjusted data point is consistent with federal and state income tax return data trends for the county. This adjustment is also reflected in the statewide growth rate and increases the average Hits: 1
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf reduction in natural gas royalty payments due to lower prices likely had a significant impact on income growth. For 2015, tax data suggest that natural gas royalty income may have comprised between 10 to 15 percent of state taxable income in Hits: 1
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf rates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November 2023). 4 Tax revenues for FY 2029-30 and beyond are assumed to grow at the same rate as nominal state GDP (S Hits: 1
PSEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf 8%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf 0%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf potential imbalance falls to $1.58 billion in FY 2023-24 based on current policies. A new sales and use tax transfer to the Public Transportation Trust Fund beginning in FY 2022- 23 reduces revenue by approximately $500 million annually and Hits: 1
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort will (1) restrain tax revenues due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other Hits: 1
PLEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 3%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
PDA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 9%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf U.S.? January 9, 2023 1 Common Themes Technology plays a key role in efficiency and improved outcomes ▪ DOR – PA Tax Hub modernization project completed in 2022 ▪ DDAP – IT modernization procurement process to start in 2023 ▪ OA monitors IT modernization projects Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf a substate metric analyzing, by quartiles based upon poverty level, students of color as a share of enrollment, and local tax effort, how the basic education funding distribution would shift on a per pupil basis if 100% of the funds were Hits: 1
PBB-Board-Hearings-Schedule-2019.pdf 00 A.M. - 11:30 A.M. Hearing Room 1- NOB meetings rescheduled Hearing Room 1- NOB Department of Corrections Tax Credit Reviews: Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Film Production, New Jobs, Historic Parole Preservation Incentive Juvenile Court Judges' Commission 11 Hits: 1
OPEIU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 8%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
Newsstand_2018_April.pdf and then level off thereafter. The CBO also revised its projection for real GDP to reflect recent changes in federal tax policy. (Full Report) Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this winter Hits: 1
NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf in COVID-19 • Investments in water, sewer and broadband ○Ineligible uses: • Towards pensions or to offset revenue resulting in a tax cuts • Rainy day funds NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES CSFRF State & Local Aid Provides $195.3 billion to states and Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf 6.14, a year-over-year (YOY) increase of nearly 80%. (Average prices include all applicable state and federal excise taxes.) Both averages represent the highest prices recorded, surpassing the previous records of $4.08 for regular gasoline (July 2008) and Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf A second round of PPP loans injected another $10.0 billion, expanded unemployment compensation $16.1 billion and advance child tax credits $3.4 billion. While much of those funds have been spent, Federal Reserve data on checking account balances through Hits: 1
MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf 6%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf Extended to 79 weeks \| extra $300 per week \| PUA program (~$515/wk) ▪ Not yet reflected in the data Extra Child Tax Credits start to be paid out in July ▪ PA: 1.3 million payments (2.2 million children) \| average of $424 Hits: 1
ISSU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 6%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf in late March or early April. That report will also include an analysis of the combined reporting and personal income tax revenue proposals. Thank you. I would be happy to answer any questions that you may have. Independent Fiscal Office 3 Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Deputy_Director.pdf personnel, policies and projects • Is knowledgeable about federal and state funding sources • Has experience reviewing and analyzing government budgets and tax policies Work Location: Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Work Hours: Full-time salaried, Monday through Hits: 1
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf needs of rapidly expanding retiree and elderly populations. The contraction of the working-age cohort suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase to keep pace with the anticipated increase in demand for healthcare and other Hits: 1
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf an estimated breakdown of the IFO reviewed wage contracts by department. Please see the attached table. Representative Brown requested property tax burden by county. This project has been undertaken by the IFO as a Research Brief and will be released as Hits: 1
FOSCEP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 3%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
FOP_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort (14.7 percent through 2020) will (1) restrain tax revenues due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf 32.2 percent in the 65+ cohort through 2025. The increase in this cohort will (1) restrain the growth of tax revenues (personal income and sales) due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2 Hits: 1
CIVEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 1%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf 4%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
ALES_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf 3%. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 40% implies that those costs increase by 40 cents for Hits: 1
AFSCME_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf rate. The benefit rate reflects indirect costs related to employee wages such as employer pension contributions, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and workers’ compensation payments. For example, a benefit rate of 45% implies that those costs increase by 45 cents for Hits: 1
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf variety of reasons including: the mix and weighting of the included items, the failure to include federal and state income taxes, the failure to consider changes in the quality of goods and services over time, and the failure to adequately respond Hits: 1
Pensions is determined to be in moder or severe distress. Furthermore, changes the distribution formula of funds from the Fire Insurance Tax Fund. Previously the ... read more HB 1687 Summary • Membership Provisions 1995 Fink Would require Members of the House of Representatives Hits: 1
Links of the Governor State Budget News • Pew Center for States • Rockefeller Institute of Government • Governing: States and Localities • Federation of Tax Administrators • National Conference of State Legislatures • National Association of State Budget Officers Federal Government • Board of Governors, Federal Reserve • Congressional Hits: 1