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September 2021 Economic Update

The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Tags: economic, monthly, news, update

Labor Market Update- August 2021

The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month.

Tags: labor, market, update

August 2021 Economic Update

The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Tags: economic, news, update

Labor Market Update- July 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. 

Tags: labor, market, update

Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

Tags: labor, market, update

Labor Market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

Tags: labor, market, update

September 2021 Economic update

The September edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

09/16/2021

Pennsylvania Electricity update

The IFO released a research brief that provides a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. Recent EIA data show that Pennsylvania remains the largest net exporter of electricity in the country.

09/09/2021

August 2021 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $2.57 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $25.9 million (1.0%) compared to August 2020.

09/01/2021

Property Tax update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation on property taxes to the House Majority Policy Committee.

08/30/2021

Property Tax Burden by County

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 

08/25/2021

August Economic and Revenue update

Director Matthew Knittel presented an economic and revenue update to the PA Association of Community Bankers.

08/25/2021

Labor Market update- August 2021

The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month.

08/24/2021

August 2021 Economic update

The August edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

08/12/2021

July 2021 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $1.40 billion (-34.2%) compared to July 2020. July 2020 collections included roughly $1.62 billion in revenue that was shifted from FY 2019-20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July 2021 revenues exceeded the prior year by $216.2 million (8.7%).

08/02/2021

Labor Market update- July 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. 

07/19/2021

July 2021 Economic update

The July edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

07/14/2021

State Pension System update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a state pension system update for the PICPA Not-for-Profit and Government Accounting Conference.

07/13/2021

June 2021 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $40.39 billion in General Fund revenues for FY 2020-21, an increase of $8.12 billion (25.1%) from the prior fiscal year.

07/02/2021

Labor Market update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

06/23/2021

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. updated estimates for FY 2020-21 are included. Methodology

06/22/2021

Economic and Revenue update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update for the PACP Chamber Day.

06/17/2021

June 2021 Economic update

The June edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

06/17/2021

Impact Fee update and Outlook 2021

This update examines 2020 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2021. The Commonwealth collected $146.3 million in impact fees for 2020, a $54.1 million decrease from 2019 and the lowest amount since the fee's inception.

06/09/2021

Labor Market update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

06/03/2021

May 2021 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $3.95 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $1.84 billion (87.5%) compared to May 2020.

06/01/2021

May 2021 Economic update

The May edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

05/18/2021

April 2021 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $3.96 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $1.78 billion (81.7%) compared to April 2020.

05/03/2021

April 2021 Economic update

The April edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

04/28/2021

School Property Tax, Senior Spending and Tax Revenues

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups.

04/23/2021

March 2021 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $4.84 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $407.9 million (9.2%) compared to March 2020.

04/01/2021

Budget and Economic update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

03/31/2021

March 2021 Economic update

The March edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

03/22/2021

Budget and Economic update Presentation

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

03/11/2021

February 2021 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $2.68 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $516.3 million (23.8%) compared to February 2020.

03/01/2021

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.)

02/24/2021

Economic and Budget update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/19/2021

February 2021 Economic update

The February edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

02/18/2021

January 2021 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $2.66 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $412.6 million (-13.4%) compared to January 2020. 

02/01/2021

January 2021 Economic update

The January edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

01/20/2021

January 2021 Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

01/11/2021

December 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $3.68 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $774.3 million (26.6%) compared to December 2019. 

01/04/2021

December 2020 Economic update

The December edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

12/16/2020

December Economic and Revenue update

Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Association of Community Bankers.

12/09/2020

November 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $18.3 million (-0.8%) compared to November 2019.

12/01/2020

November 2020 Economic update

The November edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

11/25/2020

November Economic and Revenue update

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives and the PICA 2020 Fall Conference.

11/18/2020

October 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $2.59 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $77.5 million (2.9%) compared to October 2019.

11/02/2020

Revenue and Economic update FY 2020-21

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its October Revenue and Economic update. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

10/29/2020

IFO Public Briefing: October 2020 Revenue and Economic update

The IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

10/23/2020

October 2020 Economic update

The October edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

10/22/2020

Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion.  This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.  

10/13/2020

September 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $3.26 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $76.7 million (2.4%) compared to September 2019.

10/01/2020

September 2020 Economic update

The September edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

09/23/2020

August 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

09/01/2020

August 2020 Economic update

The August edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

08/25/2020

August 2020 Economic and Revenue update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee (Democrat).

08/19/2020

July 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

08/03/2020

July 2020 Economic update

The July edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

07/23/2020

June 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. 

07/01/2020

Impact Fee update and 2020 Outlook

This report examines impact fee collections for 2019 and provides an outlook for 2020.

06/25/2020

June 2020 Economic update

The June edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

06/17/2020

May 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

06/01/2020

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20 are included. 

05/26/2020

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20.

05/26/2020

May 2020 Economic update

The May edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

05/20/2020

IFO Public Briefing: Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.  

05/19/2020

April 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates.

05/01/2020

April 2020 Economic update

The April edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

04/22/2020

Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19

The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy.

04/08/2020

March 2020 Revenue update

The Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million.

04/01/2020

Property Tax update Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association on property tax data recently published by the IFO.

03/13/2020

Economic and Budget update Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/28/2020

Mid-Year update FY 2019-20

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. The revised estimate is $35.738 billion, which is $220 million higher than the IFO’s official estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2020-21, revenues are projected to be $37.117 billion, an increase of 3.9 percent over the current year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May.

01/28/2020

Department of State

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State.

01/16/2020

Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief related to the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program. The brief provides historical data of the program and examines the potential impact of proposed legislation. This research brief was updated November 12, 2019 to take Act 43 of 2019 into consideration.

10/31/2019

Property Tax Rent Rebate Program

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate Program. Note: This analysis was originally posted on May 15, 2019. The analysis was reposted on September 12, 2019 to reflect technical adjustments made by the IFO based on research cited in the footnotes of the updated analysis.  

09/12/2019

Impact Fee update and 2019 Outlook

This report examines impact fee collections for 2018 and provides an outlook for 2019.

06/28/2019

Budget and Economic update

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants regarding an update on Pennsylvania's budget and economic landscape.  

06/11/2019

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19 are included. For the PowerPoint presentation, click on the hyperlink above.  

05/20/2019

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19.

05/20/2019

Economic and Revenue update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania.

05/16/2019

Revenue and Economic update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on April 17, 2019 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania.

04/17/2019

Special Fund Receipts and Disbursements and Ambulatory Surgical Center Assessment

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked for an update to a February 12, 2018 report on the receipts and disbursements of certain special funds and information on how Pennsylvania compares to other states with regard to the use of special funds. Another committee member asked about the proposed ambulatory surgical center assessment for the Department of Human Services (DHS).

03/13/2019

Economic & Budget Outlook Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

03/01/2019

PROPERTY TAX ELIMINATION PROJECTION

In response to a legislative request, the IFO has updated projections regarding school district property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be subject to replacement under potential legislation that would eliminate school property taxes.

02/27/2019

Mid-Year update FY 2018-19

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. The revised estimate is $34.272 billion, which is $373 million higher than the IFO’s offical estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2019-20, revenues are projected to be $35.272 billion, an increase of 2.9 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May.

01/29/2019

PA Fiscal update and Outlook

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania that reviews highlights from the IFO's recent Economic and Budget Outlook.

11/19/2018

Performance-Based Budgeting update

On October 15, Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board which provided an update regarding Act 48 implementation.

10/16/2018

Revenue and Economic update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on October 9, 2018 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania.  

10/09/2018

Tax Cut and Jobs Act update- August 2018

In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy.

08/24/2018

Property Tax update - August 2018

In response to a legislative request, the IFO updated select tables and graphs related to school district property tax that were originally released in January and December of 2017.

08/17/2018

Impact Fee update and 2018 Outlook

This report examines 2017 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2018.

06/28/2018

Official Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19

The official revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Methodology

06/18/2018

Budget and Economic update

Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

06/12/2018

Budget And Economic update with Property Tax Discussion

Director Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO). Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman also discussed an updated school district property tax forecast and recent proposed legislation. 

06/05/2018

Budget and Economic update

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the Allegheny Conference on Community Development and the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia. 

06/04/2018

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Press Release Presentation

05/01/2018

IFO update on Selected Fiscal Topics and Pennsylvania Demographics

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) Pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017. 

03/09/2018

Pennsylvania Fiscal update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a fiscal update for the state at a conference hosted by the Pittsburgh Chamber of Commerce. 

02/28/2018

Mid-Year update FY 2017-18

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release

01/29/2018

updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates

This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget.

12/21/2017

Pennsylvania Fiscal update

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) to provide background on the IFO and an update on Pennsylvania’s short- and long-term budget outlook. 

12/13/2017

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail updated projections for the PSERS state share

11/16/2017

Pennsylvania Fiscal Outlook Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel addressed the Society of Municipal Analysts to provide an update on Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook, demographics and current budget status. 

10/19/2017

Impact Fee update and 2017 Outlook

This research brief examines 2016 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2017. 

07/04/2017

Budget and Economic update

Director Matt Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA). 

06/07/2017

Actuarial Note for Senate Bill 1; A01354 and A01558

The actuarial note analyzes a proposal to amend the Public School Employees' Retirement Code and the State Employees' Retirement Code to (1) require most new employees to select one of three new plan design options and (2) make certain actuarial funding changes. The plan design options include two hybrid plans consisting of defined benefit and defined contribution components. The third option is a stand-alone defined contribution plan.  On June 5, 2017 the IFO updated the actuarial note by clarifiying certain language in the summary of Senate Bill 1. A list of the changes is available here. 

06/03/2017

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2017-18

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2017-18 and updated estimates for FY 2016-17. Press Release Presentation

05/02/2017

Horse Racing Analysis

Act 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to JSGC (March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017)

03/13/2017

Economic Forecast Summit Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Fifth Annual Economic Forecast Summit sponsored by the Pennsylvania Chamber Educational Foundation and the Pennsylvania Bankers Association. 

02/28/2017

Long-Term Fiscal Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

02/10/2017

Mid-Year update FY2016-17

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than the IFO’s November 2016 estimate and $450 million lower than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017-18, revenues are projected to be $32.637 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. ​Press Release

01/25/2017

School District Property Tax Elimination

Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association (PSBA) regarding the current proposal and forecasts for school district property taxes in Pennsylvania. *updated February 13, 2017

01/19/2017

updated School District Property Tax Forecast

Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast.

01/09/2017

Impact Fee update and 2016 Outlook

This research brief examines 2015 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2016. 

07/14/2016

Impact Fee update - February 2016

This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2015 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. 

02/29/2016

Budget and Economic update

Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic and revenue update to the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce. 

01/29/2016

Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (updated January 2016) Presentation

01/27/2016

Impact Fee update and 2015 Outlook

This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

06/25/2015

Impact Fee update - February 2015

This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

02/27/2015

updated School District Property Tax Forecast

Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school property tax collections for FY 2013-14 through FY 2019-20 (December 2014). 

12/12/2014

Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison

This report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections)

03/17/2014

Independent Fiscal Office

Independent Fiscal Office IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Independent Fiscal Office Revenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Natural Gas Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review News Stand & Other Featured Releases September 2021 Economic Update Revenue & Economic Update September 16, 2021 The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

prior to the receipt of all revenues for the fiscal year that precedes the official estimate. • Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2016-17 was released on January 25, 2017. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

Mid-Year Update MID-YEAR Revenue Update Commonwealth of Pennsylvania January 29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts.  Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

for any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release.  Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2020-21 was released on January 21, 2021. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release.  Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2019-20 was released on January 28, 2020. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

The Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issues this report as an update to its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report the partial-year budget, the IFO has postponed release of that document to a future date. This October update may be used in its place as the forecasts are largely based on the same data. However, this report only updates revenue

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release.  Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2018-19 was released on January 29, 2019. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

prior to the receipt of all revenues for the fiscal year that precedes the official estimate. • Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2017-18 was released on January 29, 2018. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

State Metric Comparison ........................................................................................................... 8 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ................................................................................. 9 Pennsylvania Demographic Trends .................................................................................... 10 State Domestic Migration Comparison .............................................................................. 11 2018-19 Revenue Update........................................................................................................ 12 2019-20 Revenue Projections ............................................................................................... 13 State Comparison: State-Local Tax Burdens ................................................................... 14 Natural Gas Production and Spot Prices ........................................................................... 15 to June 20. 2 IFO Reports and Analyses Published Reports and Analyses (since January 1, 2018) • Revenue Estimates Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18 (January 2018) Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget (April 2018) Initial Revenue Estimate

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Releases

IFO - Releases IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Releases IFO Releases September 2021 Economic Update September 16, 2021 | Revenue & Economic Update The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE To: Matthew Knittel, Director From: Mark J. Ryan Subject: Updated Projections for the State Share of PSERS Employer Contributions Date: December 12, 2017 On December 8, 2017, the Board of a certified rate for FY 2018-19, PSERS also provides projections for the employer rates through FY 2022-23. The updated projection for each fiscal year is lower than the projection available prior to the most recent actuarial valuation. The table

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

of a mild recession at 15 to 20 percent. FY 2015‐16 General Fund Revenues For the mid‐year revenue update released in January, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) increased its General Fund revenue estimate for FY 2015‐16 by $200 report as required by statute. Due to the budget impasse, the report was re‐released in late January and was updated with certain expenditures as appropriated by the General Assembly and approved by the Governor. Similar to past reports, the updated

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

In response to a request from the General Assembly, this document updates the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) official General Fund revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 to reflect 20. At that point, it should be clear whether the assumed length of the business closures must be revisited and updated. To provide context for this update, Table 1 displays forecasts by the IFO and Governor’s Budget Office (GBO) for

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

roughly 9 to 13 percent when compared to control states that did not enact combined reporting. As an update to that analysis, the IFO reviewed CNIT collections and gross domestic product (GDP) data for three large states (Massachusetts, New York and base expansion of 4.2 percent for non-bank corporate taxpayers. In 2007, the Wisconsin Legislative Fiscal Bureau updated the combined reporting base expansion estimate to approximately 11 percent for all corporate taxpayers (including banks). Maryland and Rhode Island analyzed pro

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

that staff resources are available for that purpose. 2 IFO Reports and Analyses for CY 2019 Revenue Estimates Mid-Year Update FY 2018-19 (January 2019) Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget (March 2019) Initial Revenue Estimate January 2019) Natural Gas Production Report, 2018 Q4 (March 2019) Natural Gas Production Report, 2019 Q1 (May 2019) Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook (June 2019) Natural Gas Production Report, 2019 Q2 (August 2019) 3 Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

retirement system would be required to make its “best efforts” to identify and create a list of “scrutinized companies” and update that list on a quarterly basis. Under the bill, “best efforts” include reviewing and relying on publicly available information regarding the mandate would be dependent upon the business activities of multi-national companies, any list would have to be continuously updated; a stock purchased today might have to be divested tomorrow; stock divested today might go off the list and need

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Economic & Revenue Update Pennsylvania House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 revenues to IFO estimates. Tracks various monthly and quarterly economic metrics for Pennsylvania and the U.S.  Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues, including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage.  Quarterly

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

Census for that purpose. These projections are termed “interim” projections because certain parameters of the PaSDC population model were not updated. Those parameters include fertility rates, survival rates and components of migration. Those parameters will be updated when official projections are released. The Appendix details the impact from updating the base population used by the model across

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

monthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural to actual revenues. Published Reports and Analyses (since June 2016) • FY 2016-17 Official Revenue Estimate (June 2016) • Impact Fee Update and 2016 Outlook (July 2016) • Revenue Estimate Performance (August 2016) • Quarterly Revenue Estimate (August 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

monthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to actual revenues. Published Reports and Analyses (since January 1, 2016) • Impact Fee Update (January 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 4 (February 2016) • Economic Development Incentives (March 2016) • Analysis of Revenue Proposals in

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

monthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to actual revenues. Published Reports and Analyses (since January 1, 2016) • Impact Fee Update (January 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 4 (February 2016) • Economic Development Incentives (March 2016) • Analysis of Revenue Proposals in

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

up the de facto statewide ban. The initial mil requirement in 2012 was 2.25; the law was updated with a 10 mil requirement as of 2020. 1 Jurisdiction has delayed implementation of plastic retail bag policy due to the COVID- Opinionworks, “D.C. Resident and Business Bag Use Surveys,” (2013). 12 “SB 270 Report to the Legislature: Implementation Update and Policy Considerations for Management of Reusable Grocery Bags in California,” CalRecycle (2019). Regulatory Policy Scenarios | Page 11 million in fee revenues

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

that filing method. 2 The report found that combined reporting could increase revenues by roughly 9% to 13%. As an update to that analysis, the IFO reviewed CNIT collections and GDP data for three large states (Massachusetts, New York and Wisconsin Wisconsin estimated a base expansion of 4% for non-bank corporate tax collections. In 2007, the Wisconsin Legislative Fiscal Bureau updated the combined reporting base expan- sion estimate to approximately 11% of all corporate income tax collections (includes banks). Maryland and

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

PA 17120 Dear Representative Ryan: Thank you for your recent request that asks the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide updates to prior requests that were published November 2017 and September 2019. 1 This letter uses the same data sources and methodologies used in those analyses to provide updated estimates. The updated tables are as follows. Table 1 provides the latest IFO baseline for school district property taxes. This

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

 School property tax  Demographics  Revenue estimates  Pensions / Act 5 2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax Update New Forecast, Including Homestead Property Background on Property Tax and Discussion Regarding Possible Replacement Options Challenges for Replacement: Growing vs and 2015-16. There are 125 school districts in each group. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. March 8, 2018 Demographic Update Population Distribution: U.S. vs. PA Trends for School Age, Working Age and Older Adult Groups Population Distribution: U.S

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

Mid‐Year Update Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 2015 Revenue Conference Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016. • Forecasts: June 2014 vs. January Tax Revenue 1,902 1,758 144 Non‐Tax Revenue 478 454 24 Dollar amounts are in millions. FYTD actuals updated on Feb. 2 nd to reflect January collections. 17 28.Jan.2015 18 Increases Decreases Corporate Net Income $230 Non‐

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

increased TY 2020 profits and behavioral responses to a potential federal corporate tax rate increase in the near term. ▪ The updated sales and use tax (SUT) estimate is $382 million above the IFO’s revised official estimate, with an increase in spending associated with payments to individuals under the American Rescue Plan Act, which was not included in previous estimates. ▪ The updated personal income tax (PIT) estimate exceeds the IFO’s revised official estimate by $449 million due largely to an improved

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

2 The report found that combined reporting could increase revenues by roughly 9 to 13 percent. As an update to that analysis, the IFO reviewed CNIT collections and GDP data for the six states (“CR states”) that have implemented com- bined 658 million due to the CNIT rate reduction. The Department of Revenue anticipates that the proposal will require updates to the business tax system and additional staff training at a one-time cost of $1 million (not included in table). 6

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce February 12, 2015 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office Budget and Economic Update What Is the Independent Fiscal Office? • Our role in the budget process. • Other products and publications. Tax Revenues and Budget  Our Primary Duties: • Annual Revenue Estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Economic and Budget Outlook: November 15. • Mid-Year Update: late January.  Office Does Not Make Policy Recommendations. 12.Feb.2015 3 The Independent Fiscal Office  Two Regular

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

Economic Forecasts Annual Growth Rate or Change 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP Jun‐2015 1.9% 2.0% n.a. Updated 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% Consumer Prices Jun‐2015 0.5% 1.9% n.a. Updated ‐0.1% 1.0% 1.6% Wages and Salaries Jun‐2015 3.8% 3.9% n.a. Updated 3.4%

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY 17- FY 2018-19 Executive Budget. Excludes severance tax revenue proposal. June.05.2018 10 General Fund Balance Sheet Exec. Budget Updated 2017-18 2017-18 Adjusted Beginning Balance -$1,524 -$1,524 Gross Revenues 34,752 34,501 Less: Refunds -1

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

the expenditure was recorded. Department of Criminal Justice Expenditures by Fiscal Year Agency Overview and Recommendations | Page 12 • Update to DNA Testing Law - Act 147 of 2018. This legislation updates Pennsylvania’s DNA testing law to reflect technological advances and criminal justice expertise developed since 2002. The law expands the circumstances under

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25, 2017 Presentation has three parts.  Economic update. Unexpected broad weakness.  Revenue update for FY 2016-17.  Revenue forecast for FY 2017-18. Theme: What is

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Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf

PA Payroll Jobs Continue to Recover, but Significant Shortfall Remains This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce PUA) to $650 (traditional) per week. The federal programs are scheduled to expire in two weeks. In last month’s update, the IFO speculated that many traditional UC recipients would attempt to rejoin the labor force, but there would only be

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

and TY 2021 profits and behavioral responses to a potential federal corporate tax rate increase in the near term. ▪ The updated sales and use tax (SUT) estimate is $442 million above the IFO’s revised official estimate, with an increase in spending associated with payments to individuals under the American Rescue Plan Act, which was not included in previous estimates. ▪ The updated personal income tax (PIT) estimate exceeds the IFO’s revised official estimate by $474 million due largely to an improved

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office January 21, 2016 IFO to Release Revised Revenue Estimates and Updated Fiscal Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2:00 p.m. Location

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

actuarial equivalence for SERS is still based on the 1983 Group Annuity Mortality table. If the actuarial equivalence is not updated for SERS, actuarial gains would occur if members elect the cost neutral Option 4 withdrawal. KFHG did not reflect any reduce the unfunded accrued liability determined for the Amendment. If the costs/savings of this Amendment were based on the updated assumptions, it is likely that the impact of the Amendment would be different. • In KFHG’s 2015 experience study, the

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

Table 2.2 .) 2 The estimate reflects the IFO’s official estimate released on June 18, 2018 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 3 Based on gross collections data from Connecticut, Massachusetts unrounded amounts. The June 2018 estimate reflects the IFO's official estimate released on June 18, 2018 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. Table 2.1 Adjustment to Revenue Estimate for FY

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

near future, the economic impact analysis considers the impact of the direct stimulus 3 See Oliver Armantier, et al., “An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks,” Liberty Street Economics (April 2021), https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2021/04/an-update-on-how-households-are-using- stimulus-checks.html. Income Level Amount Share Below $25k $1.21 34.8% $25k to

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

PA 17120 Dear Representatives Pashinski and Sturla: Your staff recently contacted the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) with a request to update certain tables and graphs that have been published by the office. This letter contains updates to those tables and graphs. To provide context, a brief description follows. The original documents can be found on the

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

Mid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2018-19 Preliminary Forecast FY 2019-20 January 29, 2019 Forecast: June 3% -6.2% Inheritance 6.3% 6.5% Gaming Expansion n.a. n.a. All Other -17.0% -12.1% Update for FY 2018-19 January 29, 2019 8 IFO Official Mid-Year Update Estimate Amount $ Change Growth General Fund $33

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12, 2018 FY Budget. Excludes severance tax revenue proposal. June.12.2018 19 General Fund Balance Sheet FY 17-18 Executive IFO Budget Updated Adjusted Beginning Balance -$1,524 -$1,524 Gross Revenues 34,752 34,501 Less: Refunds -1,385 -1,285 Plus

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE The Allegheny Conference on Community Development and The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 FY 2018-19 Executive Budget. Excludes severance tax revenue proposal. June.04.2018 12 General Fund Balance Sheet Exec. Budget Updated 2017-18 2017-18 Adjusted Beginning Balance -$1,524 -$1,524 Gross Revenues 34,752 34,501 Less: Refunds -1

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

Today’s Presentation June 7, 2017 2 Revenue Update for FY 2016-17. Negative (base) revenue growth through May. Revenue shortfall approaches ~$1.0 billion. Economic Update. Lots of jobs created, does not translate to spending. Weak spending yields minimal profits growth. Budget Proposals and Tax Burden

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT.pdf

Application (TraCS) was configured to record the race/ethnicity of drivers that are ticketed as part of traffic enforcement. This update is an oppor- tunity for PSP to identify any racial or ethnic disparities in traffic enforcement. From 2002 to 2010 new technology to improve performance and reduce costs. ▪ High-capacity, accurate information sharing throughout the Commonwealth, improved workforce efficiencies and updated technology to better support the core segments of the department. 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

Table 2.2.) 2 The estimate reflects the IFO’s official estimate released on June 18, 2018 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 3 Based on gross collections data from Connecticut, Massachusetts unrounded amounts. The June 2018 estimate reflects the IFO's official estimate released on June 18, 2018 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. Table 2.1 Adjustment to Revenue Estimate for FY

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

Pennsylvania Fiscal Update National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) December 13, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Who we are. ◦ Established September 2011; 10 staff term structural issues. ◦ Has morphed into early deficit estimate for this/next fiscal year. End of January: Mid-Year Revenue Update. ◦ Updated projections for the current year. Preview of next year. Early April: analysis of proposals in Executive Budget. ◦ Any proposal

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections a funds transfer ($200 million) from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA). The transfer was included in the updated official estimate per Act 44, but was blocked as a result of a federal court ruling. Revenue collections for the

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through April, total General Fund revenues are $173 million, or 0.6 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of April, General Fund collections were $325 million (-8.0 percent) below estimate. Overall sales

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through March, total General Fund revenues are $498 million, or 2.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of March, General Fund collections were $121 million (-2.7 percent) below estimate. Overall sales

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through February, total General Fund revenues are $619 million, or 3.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. February General Fund collections were $158 million (4.6 percent) above estimate. The three largest sources of tax

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

million) partially offset by overages in withholding and annual payments ($16.3 million and $3.5 million, respectively). Monthly Revenue Update March 2020 Realty transfer (RTT) and inheritance (INH) tax collections performed well in March, despite the closure of county courthouses 20 and FY 2020-21 revenue collections. The IFO plans to release a preliminary estimate of the virus impact with updated estimates for this fiscal year and guidance for next fiscal year. This update is currently scheduled for release on April

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mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf

2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2016-17 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017-18, revenues

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

Impact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter which may include backlogged claims). On average, UC claimants receive $515 (PUA) to $650 (traditional) per week. The IFO will update these data once the May jobs figures are released later this month. Labor Market Update June 2021 Feb Mar Apr

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

compares the economic forecast used for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) official estimate in June 2017 to the updated May 2018 forecast. The com- parison shows:  An upward revision to 2017 and 2018 real GDP growth.  Lower consumer price on net operating loss deduc- tions. The adjustments increased General Fund revenues by $2.3 billion, for an updated FY 2017-18 official estimate of $34.7 billion. Based on revenue collections through April and projections for the remainder of the

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Mid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2019-20 Preliminary Forecast FY 2020-21 January 28, 2020 PA Economic 1) $115m SUT transfer and $27m higher CFA transfer and (2) $74m withholding transfer this year and $25m last year. Update for FY 2019-20 January 28, 2020 8 IFO Official Mid-Year Update Estimate Amount $ Change Growth Adjust General Fund

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

her savings. (Note that the American Academy of Actuaries has recently adopted new actuarial standards of practice that require the updating of mortality tables. This should alleviate a substantial element of longevity risk in defined benefit plans, while requiring commensurate increases plans are also in decline. In October of 2012, the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College released an update on its National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI). The NRRI was developed to 18 show the share of working households that

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released updated revenue estimates for FY 2015-16 and FY 2016-17, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues are estimated to be $31.0 billion, an increase of $406 million (1.3 percent) over FY 2014-15. The updated estimate is $23 million lower than the one issued by the IFO in May, but $127 million higher than the

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

October Revenue and Economic Update FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office October 29, 2020 Modest Improvement to 2020 Economic Forecast October 29, 2020 1 June 2020 (Administration) and June 2020 (IFO). FY 2020-21 IFO Revised Estimate October 29, 2020 10 June Official Revision October Update Dollar Shifts Adjusted Growth General Fund $35,874 $650 $36,524 $1,938 0.2% Corp. Net Income 3,188

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

delayed due dates. 11 The estimate reflects the IFO’s official estimate released on June 21, 2019 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 16 Dollar Amount Growth Amount unrounded amounts. The June 2019 estimate reflects the IFO's official estimate released on June 21, 2019 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. Table 2.1 Adjustment to Revenue Estimate for FY

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

in millions. Assumes October 1, 2020 implementation. The estimates are preliminary and based on discussions with the department. DHS may update the estimates as more information becomes available. On a state fiscal year basis, the additional funding for prevention services is millions. Assumes October 1, 2020 effective date. The estimates are preliminary and based on discussions with the department. DHS may update the estimates as more information becomes available. February 27, 2020 Page 7 Implementation issues to monitor:  Will Pennsylvania be

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf

Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Tomlinson: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide an update to a previous letter transmitted by the office regarding estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. 1 Your updated request specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant to the estimates:  Establish a new base rebate of

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

million, while a one-half assumption yields $551 million. For the purpose of its June Official Revenue Estimate and October Update, the IFO had assumed that all loans would be forgiven and would be non-taxable. If that assumption is incorrect have material implications for General Fund revenues. The IFO will revisit that assumption with the release of its Mid- Year Update in January. At that time, it will be more clear whether Congress and state lawmakers have enacted or intend to

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

short-term deficit, but the long-term imbalance remains. Long-Term Outlook Summary 10.Feb.2017 13 Mid-Year Revenue Update 14 10.Feb.2017 Revised revenue projections for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 Revenues Through January 10.Feb 535 -33,443 -39,486 EndingBalance (Nov.) 2 -524 -1,746 -2,980 Revenue Adjustment (Jan.) -250 -334 n.a. Updated Balance (Jan.) -774 -2,080 Note: figures in dollar millions. School Property Tax Projections 21 10.Feb.2017 Estimates through

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

380 Over IFO official estimate Note: millions of dollars. Gains are relative to IFO official estimate released in June 2018. Update for FY 2018-19 March 1, 2019 12 IFO Official Mid-Year Update Estimate Amount $ Change Growth General Fund $33,899 $34,272 $373 -0.9% Corporate Net Income 3,075 3,280

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

November 19, 2018 PA Fiscal Update and Outlook County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania November 19, 2018 1 Three Quick Updates  Demographic projections and outlook (3 slides)  Job creation and the PA labor force (3)  FY 2019-20

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT.pdf

military personnel 4 Keystone State ChalleNGe Academy………………………………………………………………………………………………. Manage residential high school for at-risk youth 5 Facilities Maintenance…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Maintain and update property for use by DMVA 6 Administration…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Provide organizational leadership and support DMVA: Activities and Primary Services Provided Veterans Homes based on the 2010 release of the K-12 educational Common Core State Standard (CCSS). Some sites began using the updated test in 2018 and all sites will begin using the new test in the near future. 7 In the new

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT.pdf

An additional activity re- lated to the Medical Assistance portion of the Office of Medical Assistance Programs (OMAP) is also updated from last year’s report. Other services that DHS provides are addressed in separate reports. Pennsylvania is one of the 2 includes services for persons with ID/autism, child welfare and youth services, state-funded mental health services and an update for MA-Physical Health Services. Part 3 includes child development and early learning, long-term living and other grant programs

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

prepares and maintains the Commonwealth’s Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). The agency ensures emergency management stakeholders review and update plans according to state and federal guidance. The primary goals and outcomes of this activity are as follows:  Implement the National trained 4,163 3,447 3,850 2,683 3,500 3,500 Outcome % Counties and municipalities w/ updated annual -- -- -- -- 6% 7% emergency preparedness plans maintained in PEMA plan management system (CEM Planner) % NIMS adoption resolutions collected 2 54% 62% 75%

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

CIP) programs contribute another $17 million in state funding annually. JRI-2 policy proposals recommend that the state update the grant-in-aid funding formula and reinvest JRI savings to provide increased state support for county probation. The additional state funds administrative and technical support for the School Safety and Security Committee. The Committee is responsible for developing and updating the criteria for school safety assessments, developing and maintaining the criteria and registration system for school safety assessors and administering the School

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

counties is based on a formula established decades ago. This review recommends that the Commonwealth explore ways to update the allocation formula in order to distribute appropriated funds using an evidence-based approach that targets current needs. Enhance the collection and counties is based on a formula established decades ago. This review recommends that the Commonwealth explore ways to update the allocation formula in order to distribute appropriated funds using an evidence-based approach that targets current needs. Enhance the collection and

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

for occupancy planning purposes as leases expire. A 2016 Joint State Government Commission Report recommended that DGS prioritize “updates to the state inventory system and calculating utilization rates for state office buildings to provide a more comprehensive and transparent picture of for occupancy planning purposes as leases expire. A 2016 Joint State Government Commission Report recommended that DGS prioritize “updates to the state inventory system and calculating utilization rates for state office buildings to provide a more comprehensive and transparent picture of

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PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf

set by Budget Office and IFO Mar to Jul general research, design data template, contact other states (NM, WA, MN), update to PBB Board staff Mid August first meeting with each agency, transmit data template Sept to Nov multiple follow up meetings, meet with legislative staff agency template submissions, research benchmarks with other states, update to PBB Board Dec final template submissions, begin report drafts Jan 2019 provide drafts to agencies, agency edits, final meetings

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

delayed due dates. 11 The estimate reflects the IFO’s official estimate released on June 21, 2019 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. Official Revenue Estimate | Page 16 Amount Growth Amount Growth unrounded amounts. The June 2019 estimate reflects the IFO's official estimate released on June 21, 2019 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. Official Revenue Estimate | Page 17 Amount Growth Amount Growth

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

on net operating loss deduc- tions. The adjustments increased General Fund revenues by $2.3 billion, for an updated FY 2017-18 official estimate of $34.7 billion. Based on revenue collections through mid-June and projections for the remainder of lack of a funds transfer from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association, which was included in the updated official rev- enue estimate per Act 44, but was blocked as a result of a federal court ruling. Relative to FY 2016-

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Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf

OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf

OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf

OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf

OCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through January, total General Fund revenues are $462 million, or 3 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. Most of the year-to-date overage occurred in the current month. January 2018 total General Fund collections

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

In December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections 180.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS May 2018 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 The update incorporated estimates of various tax law changes, authorized transfers and borrowing. The original baseline estimates did not change from June

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

Dollar amounts are in millions. PA ELECTRICITY MARKET TRENDS The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases an Electricity Monthly Update 1 , which provides historical revenues, retail sales (demand) and average retail prices of electricity on national, regional and state levels hour. Average retail prices for 2016 are through June. Retail Electricity Prices 1 See: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/ 2 See: http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=PA 3 See: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

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MRU_2020_11.pdf

million (51.1 percent), due to higher than expected other miscellaneous collections ($93.7 million). The IFO will release an updated estimate and monthly distributions consistent with the passage of the remaining portion of the FY 2020-21 budget in January 2021. Monthly Revenue Update November 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

estimate by $451.5 million, almost entirely due to one-time transfers ($434.4 million). The IFO will release an updated estimate and monthly distributions consistent with the passage of the remaining portion of the FY 2020-21 budget in January 2021. Monthly Revenue Update December 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

of its regular five-year economic and budget outlook in mid-November. In its place, the office will release an updated economic and revenue forecast for FY 2020-21 at the end of October. Monthly Revenue Update September 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

to 2019 Q4 values by 2021 Q3. These data reflect the Zillow forecast as of May 12, but Zillow may update the forecast in the future when more data become available. Monthly Economic Update May 2020 Monthly Data Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Unemployment Rate 1 4.7% 4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

53 million compared to CY 2019 ($200 million) and reach its lowest level since inception. The IFO will release an updated projection of CY 2020 collections (remitted April 2021) in late January. Monthly Economic Update December 2020 Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 10.4% 8

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

in 2020. Later this month, the IFO will release its Natural Gas Production Report for 2021 Q2, which will provide updates on production, drilling and price trends for April to June 2021. Monthly Economic Update August 2021 Monthly Data Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.3% 7

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

households to pay down their debt. Number of Small Businesses Open and Revenues Decline from July Peak Opportunity Insights released updated data for the number of small businesses open and small business revenues, as compared to January 2020. Small businesses open 9, 2020. Similar to the U.S., small business activity in Pennsylvania has generally deteriorated since July 1. Monthly Economic Update August 2020 Monthly Data Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Unemployment Rate 1 16.1% 13

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Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Job Gains Remain in Holding Pattern This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter 5,150 through the end of the program while the average traditional UC recipient may claim $6,500. Labor Market Update June 23, 2021 Mar Apr May Mar Apr May Total Employment -431.5 -446.9 -432.7 39.2 49

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Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Payroll Jobs Record Strong Gains in June This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce issue will likely moderate as federal benefits approach expiration and former childcare workers return to the labor market. Labor Market Update July 2021 Apr May Jun Apr May Jun Total Employment -446.9 -432.3 -394.5 49.0 44.8

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

15, 2018 Jeffrey Kling Associate Director for Economic Analysis Transparency at CBO For more information, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update on Transparency at CBO (August 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/54372. 1 CBO  Enhance the credibility of its work of some of its major models and more detailed information, including computer code, about key aspects of those models  Update its template for cost estimates to make important information easier to find and read  Continue to evaluate previous estimates

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Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdf

IFO Public Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the link above to receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. www.ifo.state.pa.us Updated Revenue Estimates CreationDate: 2020-05-18 18:55:41 Creator: Canva Keywords: "DAD7-QycXRw,BACEQ8zYs40" ModDate: 2020-05-19 12

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Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdf

IFO PUBLIC BRIEFING Updated Revenue Estimates Date: Wednesday, May 26 Time: 1:00 PM R SVP Here Please register at the link above to receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. The briefing is open to

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up well, and actual revenues are up roughly $190 million over estimate overage is roughly $40 million, and it is largely attributable to inheritance tax ($30 million). At our mid-year revenue update (January 2018), we added $35 million to our official revenue estimate originally released June 2017. For this fiscal year, we

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Office (IFO).  Who we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines two federal 9 2012 GPNP Conference Other Reports and Analysis  Office will be posting regular reports and analysis.  Monthly Economic Update (later this month).  Legislative Requests: Property Tax Proposals (late September).  Interstate comparison of tax structures and tax burdens

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

projections made in the early months of the pandemic. Including statutory changes enacted with the state budget in November, the updated forecast used by this report reflects an increase of $2.56 billion over the IFO’s Official Revenue Estimate released approximate $1.0 billion structural deficit by the end of that five-year forecast window (FY 2024-25). For this update, the long-term structural deficit increases by another $1.0 billion from (1) lower revenues due to lost economic growth

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

offset the loss of $1.9 billion in one-time nontax revenues received in the prior year. The updated forecast used by this report reflects an increase of $200 million over the IFO’s official revenue estimate released in July 2019 ratings are determined by a rating agency prior to the issuance of a bond and can also be updated period- ically via public release. Fiscal Year 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 Projected

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County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf

revenues. This calculation suggests that school district property taxes account for approximately 70% of statewide property taxes. This research brief updates a previous analysis published in April 2020 that used data from CY 2018. The prior analysis used income and property tax data from the American Community Survey compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and applied to homeowners only. This update uses income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Internal Revenue Service. The property tax data are from PDE

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

year. • Quarterly Revenue Review. Published after each quarter to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to actual revenues. • Mid-Year Update. Published in January. Revised revenue estimate for the current year based on actual collections for the first half of the Use 2.3% 5.5% Personal Income 2.7% 3.3% FY 2013-14 IFO Official Revenue Estimate – Mid-Year Update ($ millions) Revenue Source Estimate Revision Revised Estimate Revised Fiscal Year Growth Revised 2 nd Half Growth General Fund - Total -$150

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Testimony-02-2020.pdf

PA Economic Update Testimony for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | February 18, 2020 Annual Growth Rate or

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

a database to monitor firms suspected of fraudulent or questionable RDTC sales.  Additional training for staff and updated protocols to improve interactions with tax credit applicants.  Reorganization of DOR staff, which will help create a standardized training plan that

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

monitor firms suspected of fraudulent or questionable R&D tax credit sales.  Additional training for staff and updated protocols to improve interactions with tax credit applicants.  Reorganization of DOR staff, which will help create a standardized training plan that

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

About half of the existing job creation programs began in the 1990’s, but have been periodically revised, updated and rebranded consistent with shifting state priorities (and administrations). Table 5 provides key characteristics for the 25 states that currently have a

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SR2017-06.pdf

to certain data for Beaver, Centre and Washington Counties. B Data supplied by the county assessment office and supplemented by updated taxable assessed value data from the State Tax Equalization Board. Philadelphia data were adjusted based on information provided by the

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  Office does not make policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014 2 Independent Fiscal Office Scope and assumptions. Potential

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

but higher wages May 26, 2021 12 FY 2020-21 Revised Estimate May 26, 2021 13 Revised Official Dollar Change Updated Estimate Payment Shifts Adjusted Growth General Fund $38,437 $1,674 $40,111 $1,978 9.4% Corporate Net Income

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

to director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 4th, and the official estimate provides updates for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15 and FY 2015-16. FY 2014-15 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an initial revenue estimate at the beginning of May and an updated revenue estimate by mid- June. FY 2014-15 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to be $30.55 billion, $594

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

respectively. The two-year total is $95 million less than the earlier projections. The reductions are largely the result of updated economic assumptions, a lower estimate for small games of chance tax revenues and new information on the timing of potential

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

to director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 1, and the official estimate provides updates for fiscal year (FY) 2013-14 and FY 2014-15. FY 2013-14 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to

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REU-2020-02.pdf

7 million (29.5 percent) above estimate. The overage is driven by stronger than expected escheats revenues. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | February 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual

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REU-2020-01.pdf

This overage is partially offset by the lower than projected licenses and fees revenues (-$17.4 million). Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | January 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual

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REU-2019-12.pdf

revenues exceed estimate by $61.7 million. The overage is driven by escheat revenues ($87.8 million). Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | December 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual

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REU-2019-11.pdf

in licenses and fees is a timing issue related to the payment of fees for gaming licenses. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | November 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual

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REU-2019-10.pdf

of this gain is offset by licenses and fees collections which are $20.2 million under estimate. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | October 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through October October Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual

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Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf

Please note the following:  The estimates utilize the latest revenue forecast released by the IFO (June 21, 2019 and updated to reflect statutory changes that were enacted with the fiscal year 2019-20 state budget). They should be viewed as

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RB-2018-01.pdf

Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative and public interest. This analysis provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

FY 2014-15 General Fund Revenue Projection ($ millions) Revenue Source June 16 Projection 1 Adjustments for Statutory Changes Updated Projection Tax Revenue $28,882.9 $40.0 $28,922.9 Non-tax Revenue 562.6 471.6 1,034.2 Total

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

March 13, 2020 Property Tax Update Pennsylvania School Boards Association March 13, 2020 School District Revenues: FY 2017-18 March 13, 2020 2 Source Amount Percent

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $1.71 billion in the

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $0.99 billion in the

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

Pennsylvania Business Council June 22, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real State GDP 1.1% 0.7% 1.5%

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Personal income tax decreased by $113 million. • Other sources, including sales tax, increased by $22 million.  The next revenue update will be on June 15 th . • More recent data on corporate profits suggest weakness. • Wage/salary withholding collections have underperformed

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PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf

State Pension System Update PICPA Not-for-Profit and Gov’t Accounting Conference Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office July 13, 2021 State Pension

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

Budget and Economic Update Presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office June 11, 2019 Main

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

November Economic and Revenue Update PICA Fall Conference 2020 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 18, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data November 18

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perez ppt.pdf

State Budget Update Arturo Pérez NCSL Fiscal Affairs Program Director Overview – State fiscal conditions continue to improve, but at a very slow pace

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT.pdf

COVID-19 pandemic likely has significant and long-term implications for agency funding and operations. For its October 2020 revenue update, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimated that gasoline consumption in Pennsylvania declined by roughly 10 percent due to greater telecommuting

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

The bureau also manages the Statewide Uniform Registry of Electors (SURE) to allow voters to apply for or update their voter registration, support county election offices’ voter list maintenance efforts and support military and overseas civilians with absentee ballot re- quests

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

Economic and Revenue Update PACP Chamber Day 2021 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office June 17, 2021 Three Issues Dominate Economic and Budget Outlook

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

December Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director December 9, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data December

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

workers” forecast is used for ECI  Usually a high correlation with the elementary-secondary school ECI IFO plans to update and re-release projection in fall  Good estimate for 2021 wage growth at that time March 17, 2021 Questions

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

August Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director August 25, 2021 Latest Quarterly PA Economic Data August 25, 2021

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐1 February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐3, which reported unconventional gas well impact

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

hours for some employees. 2019 Employment Data Revised Upward On March 16, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released updated payroll employment data for states and met- ropolitan areas. The revision increased average Pennsylvania payroll employment by 15,900 jobs

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

below $3.00, then Impact Fee collections would decline by $37 million compared to 2018. The IFO will release an updated projection of 2019 collections in late January. Metro Unemployment Rates A recent brief by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

by 5.5% in First Half of CY 2018 On September 27, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released updated figures for non-financial (excludes banks) domestic profits of U.S. corporations. The preliminary data show that profits grew by

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

the price fell below that threshold, then impact fee collections would decline by $45 million. The IFO will release an updated impact fee forecast for CY 2018 (remitted April 2019) in late January 2019. Home Price Growth Slows in 2018 Q3

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

and general economic development. (Full Article) -April 2018 - Congressional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028 The CBO updated its deficit projections from the previous release in June 2017 to show substantial growth in fed- eral debt levels over

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

collection month is December, when the fourth CNIT estimated payment for tax year 2019 will be received. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | September 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

is related to a gaming license fee that was anticipated in July 2019 but received in June. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | August 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

84.3 percent), due to a one-time payment of $30.4 million received in July 2018. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | July 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

of FY 2017-18 should become more clear once those payments have been remitted. In December, the IFO will release updated monthly projections for FY 2017-18 that reflect the impact of recently enacted legislation. 2 The legislation was enacted as

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

or uncertainty remains, then General Fund revenue projections for this year will likely be revised downward in future estimates. Revenue Update for FY 2017-18 General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Oct-17 $2,175 $2,160

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

year-over- year growth rate for the General Fund was 4.8 percent, with CNIT revenues showing robust growth. Revenue Update for FY 2017-18 Q1 Gˎ˗ˎ˛ˊ˕ F˞˗ˍ S˗ˊ˙˜ˑ˘˝ General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Sep-17 $2,719

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

In June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updated the Quarterly State Personal Income series for the first quarter of 2017. The data include personal income and its components

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

ModDate: 2016-05-03 12:44:34 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.15 (Windows) Title: MTR-2016-4 v11, data updated next day

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

Budget and Economic Update Marcellus Shale Coalition March 31, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits

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MRU_2021_08.pdf

tax collections exceed estimate by $10.0 million (27.2%) due to other miscellaneous revenues (+$15.8 million). Monthly Revenue Update August 2021 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU_2021_07.pdf

17.9 million above the prior year, while licenses and fees declined by $5.2 million (-33.6%). Monthly Revenue Update July 2021 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU_2021_05.pdf

offset that surplus (-$16.6 million). FYTD non-tax revenues exceed estimate by $45.4 million (4.3%). Monthly Revenue Update May 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through May May Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU_2021_04.pdf

38.3 million (3.8%), primarily due to higher than expected escheats collections (+$41.6 million, 23.5%). Monthly Revenue Update April 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through April April Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU_2021_03.pdf

non-tax revenues are $825.3 million and surpass the estimate by 4.7 percent (+$37.3 million). Monthly Revenue Update March 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through March March Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU_2021_02.pdf

percent). FYTD non-tax revenues are $706.5 million, or $9.8 million (1.4 percent) above estimate. Monthly Revenue Update February 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU_2021_01.pdf

negative posting that occurred in November 2020 related to repayment of loan principal under the PA First program. Monthly Revenue Update January 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU-2021-06.pdf

FY 2021-22 budget. Non-tax revenues for the fiscal year essentially met estimate at $1.21 billion. Monthly Revenue Update June 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through June June Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU-2020-10.pdf

by $7.5 million (9.5 percent), due entirely to higher than expected escheats collections (+$19.0 million). Monthly Revenue Update October 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through October October Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU-2020-08.pdf

overage in licenses and fees ($9.5 million) more than offset by shortfalls in the other revenue categories. Monthly Revenue Update August 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

is likely the result of the continued effects of COVID-19 mitigation efforts on the real estate industry. Monthly Revenue Update July 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU-2020-06.pdf

a significant amount of delayed INH tax collections that will be remitted in FY 2020-21 ($70 million). Monthly Revenue Update June 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through June June Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff

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MRU-2020-05.pdf

the closure of county courthouses. The INH shortfall is expected to be recouped in the current fiscal year. Monthly Revenue Update May 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through May May Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate Variance Actual Estimate Variance

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MRU-2020-04.pdf

the closure of county courthouses. The INH shortfall is expected to be recouped in the current fiscal year. Monthly Revenue Update April 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through April April Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate Variance Actual Estimate Variance

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

of the national eviction moratorium on August 26, 2021 could have implications for rental prices in future months. Monthly Economic Update September 2021 CPI-U Year-Over-Year Change Feb Apr Jun Aug Weight All Items 1.0% 3.5% 4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

for used cars, growth in U.S. new car prices has been modest (0.7%, year-over-year). Monthly Economic Update September 2020 Monthly Data May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Unemployment Rate 1 13.4% 13

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

while the government and education sectors reported accelerating losses which coincides with the start of the school year. Monthly Economic Update October 2020 Monthly Data Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Unemployment Rate 1 13.2% 12

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

multifamily rents fell 0.3% over the prior year according to the September 2020 Multi-Housing News report. Monthly Economic Update November 2020 Monthly Data Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Unemployment Rate 1 12.5% 10

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

and require supervision. Currently, Pennsylvania does not require individuals who receive benefits to demonstrate an active job search. Monthly Economic Update May 2021 Monthly Data Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.1% 7

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

business services (+12,100, +1.6%), retail trade (+5,600, +1.0%) and arts-entertainment (+500, +0.8%). Monthly Economic Update March 2021 Monthly Data Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.0% 7

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

students and not typically primary earners in their households, which may explain the lower share of UC claims. Monthly Economic Update June 2021 14-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Male Female White Black Asian Other Job Loss (000s) -170 -205

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

consumer spending remains below prior year levels, recent patterns suggest a V-shaped recovery in the near term. Monthly Economic Update June 2020 Monthly Data Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Unemployment Rate 1 4.7% 5

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

Therefore, the data should not be used to infer that income migrated in or out of the state. Monthly Economic Update July 2021 Monthly Data Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.4% 7

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

June, ranging from a high of 17.4% in Massachusetts to a low of 4.3% in Kentucky. Monthly Economic Update July 2020 Monthly Data Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Unemployment Rate 1 5.8% 16

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

food and energy are excluded, then average price levels increased by 1.2% relative to the prior year. Monthly Economic Update January 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

December 2020 analysis from mortgage-data firm Black Knight, an increase of 35.1% over the prior year. Monthly Economic Update February 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

those factors. For the Pennsylvania economy, productivity gains will be a critical factor to the long-term outlook. Monthly Economic Update April 2021 Monthly Data Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.1% 7

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

monthly decline (-54%). Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, March consumer prices declined 0.1% from February. Monthly Economic Update April 2020 Monthly Data Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Unemployment Rate 1 4.6% 4

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mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf

2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2014-15 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15. The revised estimate is $30.207

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an initial revenue estimate at the beginning of May and an updated revenue estimate by mid- June. FY 2016-17 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to be $31.82 billion, $695

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

First PIT estimated payment very weak (-5%).  March-April CNIT estimated payments up +13%. Recapitulation 21 02.May.2017 Updated Estimate Mid-June Presentation to be Posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Questions/Discussion 22 02.May

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

in thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. Impact Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JUNE 2021 PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

Distributions in 2018 include $5.0 million in fees attributable to 2016 and 2017 that were remitted late. Impact Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office June 2019 1 Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office June 2018 1 Impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice July 2017 1 Research Brief 2017‐3 July 2017 Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

Workers 177 147 -30 Directly Affected by $12 Minimum Wage 119 105 -14 Note: Excludes self-employed. Data will be updated in IFO's Analysis of Revenue Proposals in Spring 2021. Source: Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), 2019. PA Worker Distribution by

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

General Fund Revenue Estimate FY 2013-14 Mid-Year Update Independent Fiscal Office January 23, 2014 At the beginning of the fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) forecasted FY

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IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf

balance using temporary one-time measures, the underlying structural imbalance remains and is carried forward into future years,” Knittel said. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of $409 million in the current fiscal year

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

a revenue gain of roughly 11 percent relative to the control states that did not enact combined reporting. The IFO updated that analysis using a more recent year of data, and the results are largely unchanged. For Pennsylvania, an 11 percent

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

Economic and Revenue Update Harrisburg Trade Association Executives May 15, 2019 U.S. and PA Economic Trends May 15, 2019 1 2015 2016 2017

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House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf

State Pension System Update House State Government Committee Testimony Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office August 19, 2021 Recent Legislation • Act 5 of 2017

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House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdf

Property Tax Update House Majority Policy Committee Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office August 30, 2021 School District Property Tax Forecast August 30

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/CA-MJ-IMPACT-REPORT-2020-FINAL-.pdf Monitoring Impacts of Recreational Marijuana Legalization, 2019 Update Report. Washington State Statistical Analysis Center (2019). https://ofm.wa.gov/sites/default/files/public/publications/marijuana_impacts_update_2019.pdf Moore, Brian

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

make some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based budget (PBB) plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY 2018-19 Through January, actual revenues exceed the IFO official revenue estimate by $321 million (and the Administration

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Update Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | December 3, 2019 Number (000s) Change (000s) Average Ann Growth PA Demographic Forecast 2015 2020

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Updated revenue estimates suggest policymakers could face a budget imbalance of more than $500 million in the current fiscal year. The

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Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Independent Fiscal Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 19, 2021 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 28, 2020 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September

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Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdf

Total consumption includes 2019 amounts for direct use and line losses, which are not yet available for 2020. Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 in 2016, and the differential widened through 2021

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

Economic and Revenue Update Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office August 19, 2020 Four Things to Note Wage and Salary data are stronger than expected

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

Workers 177 147 -30 Directly Affected by $12 Minimum Wage 119 105 -14 Note: Excludes self-employed. Data will be updated in IFO's Analysis of Revenue Proposals in Spring 2021. Source: Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), 2019. PA Worker Distribution by

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf

Office presents Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

7% -3 -0.8% All Other 770 49 6.9% -75 -10.5% Note: millions of dollars. Slide has been updated to reflect February’s actual collections. Base amounts control for tax law changes (e.g., cigarette tax) and timing issues

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

Budget and Economic Update CompetePA March 11, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and next, then deficits  A FY

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

thinking about the revenue outlook and the economy. FY 2013-14 Revenue Outlook The IFO recently published a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for the current fiscal year and concluded that a $150 million reduction to the estimate was

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Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Independent Fiscal Office to Release Revenue Projections and Conduct Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release updated revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2015- 16 and 2016-17 on Tuesday, May 3, 2016. The office will hold a

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

The OA,Central Management Informa- tion Center (CMIC),will calculate the actual biweekly agency payroll costs for the REHP and update agency expenditures in the Commonwealth's Integrated Central Systems (ICS) Accounting Sys- tem. CMIC will also produce monthly annuitant medical

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

Fire Service in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, A Funding Study, Pennsylvania Fire and Emergency Services Institute, originally published December 1994, updated 2001. -2- 4) report the Commission’s findings and recommendations to the House of Representatives. FIRE PROTECTION SERVICE IN PENNSYLVANIA

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