November 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
October 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
September 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
August 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
July 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
June 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
May 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATEThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATEThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
March 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
JANUARY 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATEThe January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
December 2022 Monthly Economic UpdateThe December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
November 2022 Monthly Economic UpdateThe November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
October 2022 Monthly Economic UpdateThe October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
SEPTEMBER 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATEThe September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
August 2022 Monthly Economic UpdateThe August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
July 2022 Monthly Economic UpdateThe July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
JUNE 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATEThe June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
May 2022 Monthly Economic UpdateThe May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
April 2022 Monthly Economic UpdateThe April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
March 2022 Monthly Economic UpdateThe March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, update |
December 2021 Economic UpdateThe December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update |
November 2021 Economic UpdateThe November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update |
Labor Market Update - October 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The jobs shortfall expanded in September on a year-over-year (YOY) basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. For September, the computed YOY change in payroll jobs is -384,800, compared to -365,500 for August. Tags: labor, market, update |
October 2021 Economic UpdateThe October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update |
Labor Market Update - September 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market contracted slightly in August on a year-over-year basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. These data reflect the final month of federal unemployment compensation benefits. Tags: labor, market, update |
September 2021 Economic UpdateThe September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, monthly, news, update |
Labor Market Update- August 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month. Tags: labor, market, update |
August 2021 Economic UpdateThe August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. Tags: economic, news, update |
Labor Market Update- July 2021The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. Tags: labor, market, update |
Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. Tags: labor, market, update |
Labor Market Update- June 2021The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus. Tags: labor, market, update |
Economic and Property Tax updateFiscal Analyst Jesse Bushman presented an update on the Pennsylvania economy and a new projection of the Act 1 Index to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials. 10/08/2024 |
September 2024 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $4.16 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $105 million (+2.6%) compared to September 2023. 10/01/2024 |
Natural Gas Quarterly update: 2024 Q2This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. 09/05/2024 |
August 2024 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.93 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $33 million (+1.1%) compared to August 2023. 09/03/2024 |
2022 Property Tax Burden by CountyThis research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens on homeowners and renters across the state for 2022. The brief was updated on September 6, 2024 to address a technical correction. 08/21/2024 |
July 2024 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.99 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $110 million compared to July 2023. 08/01/2024 |
General Fund Surplus Likely Depleted Next YearThis research brief uses the recently passed state budget for FY 24-25 to update deficit estimates for the current and subsequent fiscal year. 07/18/2024 |
June 2024 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $45.47 billion in General Fund revenues for FY 2023-24, which was within 0.6% ($273 million) of the IFO official revenue estimate. 07/01/2024 |
Impact Fee Revenue update and Outlook 2024This update examines 2023 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2024. The Commonwealth collected $179.6 million in impact fees for 2023, a $99.2 million decrease from 2022. 06/26/2024 |
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2024-25The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2024-25. updated estimates for FY 2023-24 are included. Methodology 06/20/2024 |
School District Property Tax ForecastThe IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report projects revenues and the Act 1 index through FY 2025-26 and provides an overview of recent trends in school district funding. 06/19/2024 |
Natural Gas Quarterly update, 2024 Q1This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. 06/03/2024 |
May 2024 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.36 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $64 million (+2.0%) compared to May 2023. 06/03/2024 |
Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues - updateTreasury collections have generated a short-term revenue windfall. This research brief updates a prior analysis and provides preliminary Treasury revenue estimates for FY 2024-25. 05/02/2024 |
April 2024 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $5.69 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $30 million (+0.5%) compared to April 2023. The IFO transmitted a brief revenue update to the chairs of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees. 05/01/2024 |
Economic and Budget update PresentationThe IFO presented on the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. 04/05/2024 |
March 2024 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $6.28 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase $89 million (+1.4%) compared to March 2023. The IFO transmitted a brief revenue update to the chairs of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees. 04/01/2024 |
Pennsylvania Electricity updateThis report utilizes data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to display recent trends for the Pennsylvania and regional electricity markets. The report examines recent trends in net generation, net exports, CO2 emissions and prices. 03/07/2024 |
February 2024 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.77 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $31.1 million (1.1%) compared to February 2023 (adjusted). 03/01/2024 |
Tax Modernization and Reform PresentationDirector Knittel made a presentation to the House Finance Subcommittee on Tax Modernization and Reform. Based on a request from Chair Rabb, the presentation was updated to add an additional slide that displays the income distribution for self-employment and S corporation/partnership income. 03/01/2024 |
Natural Gas Quarterly update, 2023 Q4This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. 02/26/2024 |
Economic updateDirector Knittel provided an economic update at the Economic Forecast and Business Leadership Summit. 02/22/2024 |
January 2024 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.91 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $342.4 million (9.6%) compared to January 2023. 02/01/2024 |
Economic and Budget update PresentationDirector Knittel made a presentation of the mid-year update to the House Budget Roundtable. 01/31/2024 |
Mid-Year update FY 2023-24The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. 01/30/2024 |
December 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.70 billion in General Fund revenues for December, a decrease of $342.2 million (-8.5%) compared to December 2022. 01/02/2024 |
Gasoline Consumption Remains SubduedThe IFO updated a gasoline consumption research brief published in January 2023 with additional consumption and retail pump price data. Gasoline consumption remains well below pre-pandemic levels partially due to the continuation of hybrid and remote work schedules for some workers. 12/19/2023 |
Natural Gas Quarterly update, 2023Q3This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. 12/04/2023 |
November 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.06 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $107.9 million (3.7%) compared to November 2022 (adjusted). 12/01/2023 |
November 2023 Monthly Economic updateThe Monthly Economic update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 11/29/2023 |
October 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.25 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $121.4 million (3.9%) compared to October 2022. 11/01/2023 |
October 2023 Monthly Economic updateThe Monthly Economic update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 10/23/2023 |
September 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $4.06 billion in General Fund revenues for September, a decrease of $161.3 million (-3.8%) compared to September 2022. 10/02/2023 |
September 2023 Monthly Economic updateThe Monthly Economic update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 09/14/2023 |
Economic updateDirector Knittel made a brief presentation to an economic summit hosted by the York County Delegation of the General Assembly. 09/14/2023 |
Natural Gas Quarterly update, 2023Q2This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. 09/07/2023 |
August 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.90 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $34.5 million (1.2%) compared to August 2022. 09/01/2023 |
August 2023 Monthly Economic updateThe Monthly Economic update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 08/23/2023 |
July 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.88 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $185.3 million compared to July 2022. 08/01/2023 |
July 2023 Monthly Economic updateThe Monthly Economic update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 07/12/2023 |
June 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $44.92 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2022-23, a decrease of $3.22 billion (-6.7%) compared to the prior fiscal year. The decline is due to a one-time transfer of $3.84 billion in FY 2021-22 and a new SUT transfer. 07/03/2023 |
School District Property Tax updateThe IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2027-28, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 06/28/2023 |
Impact Fee update and Outlook 2023This update examines 2022 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2023. The Commonwealth collected $278.9 million in impact fees for 2022, a $44.4 million increase from 2021. 06/26/2023 |
June 2023 Monthly Economic updateThe Monthly Economic update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 06/26/2023 |
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2023-24The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. updated estimates for FY 2022-23 are included. Methodology 06/20/2023 |
May 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.29 billion in General Fund Revenues for May, an increase of $61.1 million (1.9%) compared to May 2022. 06/01/2023 |
Natural Gas Quarterly update, 2023Q1This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Bentek Energy to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. 05/31/2023 |
May 2023 Monthly Economic updateThe Monthly Economic update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 05/23/2023 |
April 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $5.66 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $863.0 million (-13.2%) compared to April 2022. 05/01/2023 |
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC updateThe Monthly Economic update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/25/2023 |
Economic and Budget updateThe IFO presented an Economic and Budget update to the PA Motor Truck Association. 04/19/2023 |
Expiration of the Enhanced FMAPThe IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after. The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout. 04/06/2023 |
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC updateThe Monthly Economic update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/04/2023 |
March 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $6.19 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $633.3 million (11.4%) compared to March 2022. 04/03/2023 |
March 2023 Monthly Economic updateThe March edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 03/21/2023 |
Economic and Act 1 Index updateDirector Knittel gave an Economic and Act 1 Index update at the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO) Annual Conference. 03/16/2023 |
Economic updateDirector Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Chamber of Business and Industry. 03/13/2023 |
February 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.83 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $393.5 million (16.2%) compared to February 2022. 03/01/2023 |
Pennsylvania Electricity updateThe IFO posted a research brief that provides an overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. For 2022, PA remains the top exporter of electricity across all states. The next largest state (AL) exported 40% less electricity. 03/01/2023 |
January 2023 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.57 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $23.7 million (-0.7%) compared to January 2022. Due to a processing delay on the last day of the month, roughly $94 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in January will be shifted to February. 02/01/2023 |
Mid-Year update FY 2022-23The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May. 01/31/2023 |
JANUARY 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC updateThe January edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/25/2023 |
Rural Jobs and Investment Tax CreditAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit Report. The report was amended on February 17, 2023 to include updates to Table 3.1 on page 14. Following publication of the RJITC report, the IFO became aware of a data discrepancy contained within a referenced study. As a result, the RJITC report was updated to exclude references to the “Evaluation of Alabama’s Entertainment Industry Incentive Program and New Markets Development Program” on February 23, 2023. 01/05/2023 |
December 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $4.04 billion in General Fund revenue for December, an increase of $195.9 million (5.1%) compared to December 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the shift of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December. 01/03/2023 |
December 2022 Monthly Economic updateThe December edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/20/2022 |
NOVEMBER 2022 REVENUE updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.75 billion in General Fund revenue for November, a decrease of $3.87 billion (-58.4%) compared to November 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the delay of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December. 12/01/2022 |
November 2022 Monthly Economic updateThe November edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. 11/21/2022 |
Economic and Budget OutlookThe Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/02/2022 |
October 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.12 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $310.8 million (11.0%) compared to October 2021. 11/01/2022 |
Where Did the Workers Go?This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force. 10/25/2022 |
October 2022 Monthly Economic updateThe October edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. 10/24/2022 |
September 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $4.22 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $214.8 million (5.4%) compared to September 2021. 10/03/2022 |
SEPTEMBER 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC updateThe September edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/19/2022 |
August 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.86 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $290.7 million (11.3%) compared to August 2021. 09/01/2022 |
August 2022 Monthly Economic updateThe August edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/22/2022 |
School District Property Tax updateThe IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index. 08/15/2022 |
July 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $4.0 million (-0.1%) compared to July 2021. 08/01/2022 |
July 2022 Monthly Economic updateThe July edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 07/25/2022 |
June 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $48.13 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2021-22, an increase of $7.74 billion (19.2%) compared to the prior fiscal year. 07/01/2022 |
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2022-23The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. updated estimates for FY 2021-22 are included. Methodology 06/23/2022 |
Impact Fee update and Outlook 2022This update examines 2021 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2022. The Commonwealth collected $234.4 million in impact fees for 2021, an $88.2 million increase from 2020. 06/21/2022 |
JUNE 2022 MONTHLY ECONOMIC updateThe June edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 06/16/2022 |
May 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.23 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $716.2 million (-18.1%) compared to May 2021. 06/01/2022 |
May 2022 Monthly Economic updateThe May edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 05/19/2022 |
Department of Human Services - Part 3Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3). Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10. 05/04/2022 |
April 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $6.52 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $2.56 billion (64.5%) compared to April 2021. 05/02/2022 |
Department of EducationAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education. Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16. The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022. The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022. 04/27/2022 |
Department of AgingAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging. Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022. The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1. 04/26/2022 |
Property Tax Replacement EstimatesIn response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides updated estimates for potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated. 04/15/2022 |
April 2022 Monthly Economic updateThe April edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 04/12/2022 |
March 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $5.56 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $714.3 million (14.8%) compared to March 2021. 04/01/2022 |
BUDGET AND ECONOMIC update PRESENTATIONDeputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. 03/31/2022 |
Assumptions Used by RGGI ModelDirector Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony on the model assumptions used by a consultant to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania from joining RGGI. This written testimony was updated on November 4, 2022, to include clarifications for the third and sixth bullets on page 1. 03/28/2022 |
Senate Budget Hearing RequestThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to two questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to an update of the IFO’s five-year projections for revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget and an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors. 03/21/2022 |
March 2022 Monthly Economic updateThe March edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 03/18/2022 |
Pennsylvania Electricity updateThis research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. 03/14/2022 |
Economic and Budget update PresentationDeputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center. The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30. 03/04/2022 |
February 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.43 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decrease of $249.5 million (-9.3%) compared to February 2021. 03/01/2022 |
COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania DeathsThis research updates a prior release (September 2021) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. The analysis finds 19,800 excess deaths in 2020 and estimates 18,900 excess deaths for 2021. 02/11/2022 |
February 2022 Monthly Economic updateThe February edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 02/09/2022 |
January 2022 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.59 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $931.08 million (35.0%) compared to January 2021. 02/01/2022 |
Mid-Year update FY 2021-22The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in mid May. 01/31/2022 |
Department of AgricultureAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture. Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022. The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21. 01/20/2022 |
January 2022 Monthly Economic NewsThe January edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/17/2022 |
December 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.85 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $162.3 million (4.4%) compared to December 2020. 01/03/2022 |
December 2021 Economic updateThe December edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/07/2021 |
November 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $6.62 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $4.28 billion (183.1%) compared to November 2020. 12/01/2021 |
Economic Outlook and Property Tax updateAnalyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook and School District Property Tax Forecast. 11/16/2021 |
November 2021 Economic updateThe November edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 11/10/2021 |
School District Property Tax ForecastThis report contains the IFO's updated forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2020-21 to FY 2025-26. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019-20 current-year property tax collections, (2) the impact from FY 2021-22 millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 Index projection. 11/08/2021 |
Economic and Budget OutlookThe Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/04/2021 |
October 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.81 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $221.7 million (8.6%) compared to October 2020. 11/01/2021 |
Labor Market update - October 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The jobs shortfall expanded in September on a year-over-year (YOY) basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. For September, the computed YOY change in payroll jobs is -384,800, compared to -365,500 for August. 10/26/2021 |
October 2021 Economic updateThe October edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 10/07/2021 |
Demographic and Labor Market updateDirector Matthew Knittel provided a demographics and labor market update to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce. 10/06/2021 |
SEPTEMBER 2021 REVENUE updateThe Commonwealth collected $4.00 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $741.3 million (22.7%) compared to September 2020. 10/01/2021 |
Public Pension Status and OutlookThe IFO released a research brief that provides a status update and outlook for public pension systems in Pennsylvania. Data for state and local systems show that while the fiscal health of public pension systems has improved in recent years, the overall unfunded liability remains significant. 09/28/2021 |
PBB Addendums and updated KSDZ Tax Credit Report PresentationThe IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based Budget Board. 09/28/2021 |
Labor Market update - September 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market contracted slightly in August on a year-over-year basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. These data reflect the final month of federal unemployment compensation benefits. 09/20/2021 |
September 2021 Economic updateThe September edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/16/2021 |
Pennsylvania Electricity updateThis research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylania electricity market. 09/09/2021 |
August 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.57 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $25.9 million (1.0%) compared to August 2020. 09/01/2021 |
Property Tax updateDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation on property taxes to the House Majority Policy Committee. 08/30/2021 |
Property Tax Burden by CountyThis research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 08/25/2021 |
August Economic and Revenue updateDirector Matthew Knittel presented an economic and revenue update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. 08/25/2021 |
Labor Market update- August 2021The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The labor market continued to improve in July as pandemic-related job losses declined from the prior month. 08/24/2021 |
August 2021 Economic updateThe August edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/12/2021 |
July 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $1.40 billion (-34.2%) compared to July 2020. July 2020 collections included roughly $1.62 billion in revenue that was shifted from FY 2019-20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding this shift, July 2021 revenues exceeded the prior year by $216.2 million (8.7%). 08/02/2021 |
Labor Market update- July 2021The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The labor market improved in June as pandemic-related job losses declined following stagnation in previous months. 07/19/2021 |
July 2021 Economic updateThe July edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 07/14/2021 |
State Pension System updateDirector Matthew Knittel provided a state pension system update for the PICPA Not-for-Profit and Government Accounting Conference. 07/13/2021 |
June 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $40.39 billion in General Fund revenues for FY 2020-21, an increase of $8.12 billion (25.1%) from the prior fiscal year. 07/02/2021 |
Labor Market update - June 23, 2021The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 06/23/2021 |
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. updated estimates for FY 2020-21 are included. Methodology 06/22/2021 |
Economic and Revenue updateDirector Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update for the PACP Chamber Day. 06/17/2021 |
June 2021 Economic updateThe June edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 06/17/2021 |
Impact Fee update and Outlook 2021This update examines 2020 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2021. The Commonwealth collected $146.3 million in impact fees for 2020, a $54.1 million decrease from 2019 and the lowest amount since the fee's inception. 06/09/2021 |
Labor Market update- June 2021The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus. 06/03/2021 |
May 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.95 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $1.84 billion (87.5%) compared to May 2020. 06/01/2021 |
May 2021 Economic updateThe May edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 05/18/2021 |
April 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.96 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $1.78 billion (81.7%) compared to April 2020. 05/03/2021 |
April 2021 Economic updateThe April edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 04/28/2021 |
School Property Tax, Senior Spending and Tax RevenuesIn response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups. 04/23/2021 |
March 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $4.84 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $407.9 million (9.2%) compared to March 2020. 04/01/2021 |
Budget and Economic update PresentationDeputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. 03/31/2021 |
March 2021 Economic updateThe March edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 03/22/2021 |
Budget and Economic update PresentationDirector Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals. 03/11/2021 |
February 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.68 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $516.3 million (23.8%) compared to February 2020. 03/01/2021 |
School District Property Tax ForecastThis report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.) 02/24/2021 |
Economic and Budget update PresentationDeputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. 02/19/2021 |
February 2021 Economic updateThe February edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 02/18/2021 |
January 2021 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.66 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $412.6 million (-13.4%) compared to January 2020. 02/01/2021 |
January 2021 Economic updateThe January edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 01/20/2021 |
January 2021 Economic and Budget OutlookThe Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 01/11/2021 |
December 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.68 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $774.3 million (26.6%) compared to December 2019. 01/04/2021 |
December 2020 Economic updateThe December edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 12/16/2020 |
December Economic and Revenue updateDirector Matthew Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Association of Community Bankers. 12/09/2020 |
November 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.34 billion in General Fund revenues for November, a decrease of $18.3 million (-0.8%) compared to November 2019. 12/01/2020 |
November 2020 Economic updateThe November edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 11/25/2020 |
November Economic and Revenue updateDirector Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives and the PICA 2020 Fall Conference. 11/18/2020 |
October 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.59 billion in General Fund revenues for October, a decrease of $77.5 million (2.9%) compared to October 2019. 11/02/2020 |
Revenue and Economic update FY 2020-21The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its October Revenue and Economic update. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation. 10/29/2020 |
IFO Public Briefing: October 2020 Revenue and Economic updateThe IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 10/23/2020 |
October 2020 Economic updateThe October edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 10/22/2020 |
Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania TaxpayersThis research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately. 10/13/2020 |
September 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $3.26 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $76.7 million (2.4%) compared to September 2019. 10/01/2020 |
September 2020 Economic updateThe September edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 09/23/2020 |
August 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.55 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $355.5 million (16.2%) compared to August 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $235.0 million of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 09/01/2020 |
August 2020 Economic updateThe August edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 08/25/2020 |
August 2020 Economic and Revenue updateDirector Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee (Democrat). 08/19/2020 |
July 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $4.10 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $1.77 billion compared to July 2019. The IFO estimates that roughly $1.62 billion of the increase was associated with extended tax due dates related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 08/03/2020 |
July 2020 Economic updateThe July edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 07/23/2020 |
June 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $32.28 billion for FY 2019-20, a decline of $2.58 billion (-7.4 percent) from the prior fiscal year. The IFO projects that business closures and mitigation efforts related to the COVID-19 virus resulted in (1) $1.36 billion in lost revenue from reduced economic activity and (2) $1.91 billion that shifts to FY 2020-21 as a result of extended tax due dates. 07/01/2020 |
Impact Fee update and 2020 OutlookThis report examines impact fee collections for 2019 and provides an outlook for 2020. 06/25/2020 |
June 2020 Economic updateThe June edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 06/17/2020 |
May 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.11 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decline of $510.7 million compared to May 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $515 million due to the impact of continued business closures and other mitigation efforts to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. 06/01/2020 |
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21The initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20 are included. 05/26/2020 |
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 PresentationDirector Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20. 05/26/2020 |
May 2020 Economic updateThe May edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 05/20/2020 |
IFO Public Briefing: Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 05/19/2020 |
April 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $2.18 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decline of $2.23 billion compared to April 2019. The IFO estimates that the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $2.12 billion due to business closures, delayed payment processing and the extension of some tax due dates. 05/01/2020 |
April 2020 Economic updateThe April edition of our Monthly Economic update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 04/22/2020 |
Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy. 04/08/2020 |
March 2020 Revenue updateThe Commonwealth collected $4.4 billion in General Fund revenues for March, a decline of $118.1 million compared to March 2019. The IFO estimates that the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus reduced monthly collections by $200 million. 04/01/2020 |
Property Tax update PresentationDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association on property tax data recently published by the IFO. 03/13/2020 |
Economic and Budget update PresentationDirector Matthew Knittel gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. 02/28/2020 |
Mid-Year update FY 2019-20The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. The revised estimate is $35.738 billion, which is $220 million higher than the IFO’s official estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2020-21, revenues are projected to be $37.117 billion, an increase of 3.9 percent over the current year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May. 01/28/2020 |
Department of StateAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Human Services (Part 1), Department of Health, Department of Environmental Protection, Department of State and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. This report was updated to reflect the Performance-Based Budget Board vote to amend the report on January 22, 2020. Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of State. 01/16/2020 |
Redevelopment Assistance Capital ProgramIn response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief related to the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program. The brief provides historical data of the program and examines the potential impact of proposed legislation. This research brief was updated November 12, 2019 to take Act 43 of 2019 into consideration. 10/31/2019 |
Property Tax Rent Rebate ProgramIn response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate Program. Note: This analysis was originally posted on May 15, 2019. The analysis was reposted on September 12, 2019 to reflect technical adjustments made by the IFO based on research cited in the footnotes of the updated analysis. 09/12/2019 |
Impact Fee update and 2019 OutlookThis report examines impact fee collections for 2018 and provides an outlook for 2019. 06/28/2019 |
Budget and Economic updateDeputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants regarding an update on Pennsylvania's budget and economic landscape. 06/11/2019 |
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20The initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19 are included. For the PowerPoint presentation, click on the hyperlink above. 05/20/2019 |
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 PresentationDirector Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19. 05/20/2019 |
Economic and Revenue updateDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. 05/16/2019 |
Revenue and Economic updateDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on April 17, 2019 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. 04/17/2019 |
Special Fund Receipts and Disbursements and Ambulatory Surgical Center AssessmentThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked for an update to a February 12, 2018 report on the receipts and disbursements of certain special funds and information on how Pennsylvania compares to other states with regard to the use of special funds. Another committee member asked about the proposed ambulatory surgical center assessment for the Department of Human Services (DHS). 03/13/2019 |
Economic & Budget Outlook PresentationDeputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 03/01/2019 |
PROPERTY TAX ELIMINATION PROJECTIONIn response to a legislative request, the IFO has updated projections regarding school district property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be subject to replacement under potential legislation that would eliminate school property taxes. 02/27/2019 |
Mid-Year update FY 2018-19The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. The revised estimate is $34.272 billion, which is $373 million higher than the IFO’s offical estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2019-20, revenues are projected to be $35.272 billion, an increase of 2.9 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May. 01/29/2019 |
PA Fiscal update and OutlookDirector Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania that reviews highlights from the IFO's recent Economic and Budget Outlook. 11/19/2018 |
Performance-Based Budgeting updateOn October 15, Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board which provided an update regarding Act 48 implementation. 10/16/2018 |
Revenue and Economic updateDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on October 9, 2018 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. 10/09/2018 |
Tax Cut and Jobs Act update- August 2018In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy. 08/24/2018 |
Property Tax update - August 2018In response to a legislative request, the IFO updated select tables and graphs related to school district property tax that were originally released in January and December of 2017. 08/17/2018 |
Impact Fee update and 2018 OutlookThis report examines 2017 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2018. 06/28/2018 |
Official Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19The official revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Methodology 06/18/2018 |
Budget and Economic updateDirector Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants. 06/12/2018 |
Budget And Economic update with Property Tax DiscussionDirector Matthew Knittel gave a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO). Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman also discussed an updated school district property tax forecast and recent proposed legislation. 06/05/2018 |
Budget and Economic updateDirector Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the Allegheny Conference on Community Development and the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia. 06/04/2018 |
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19The initial revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Press Release Presentation 05/01/2018 |
IFO update on Selected Fiscal Topics and Pennsylvania DemographicsDeputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) Pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017. 03/09/2018 |
Pennsylvania Fiscal updateDirector Matthew Knittel provided a fiscal update for the state at a conference hosted by the Pittsburgh Chamber of Commerce. 02/28/2018 |
Mid-Year update FY 2017-18The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/29/2018 |
updated Monthly and Quarterly Revenue EstimatesThis report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget. 12/21/2017 |
Pennsylvania Fiscal updateDirector Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) to provide background on the IFO and an update on Pennsylvania’s short- and long-term budget outlook. 12/13/2017 |
Five Year Economic and Budget OutlookThis report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail updated projections for the PSERS state share 11/16/2017 |
Pennsylvania Fiscal Outlook PresentationDirector Matthew Knittel addressed the Society of Municipal Analysts to provide an update on Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook, demographics and current budget status. 10/19/2017 |
Impact Fee update and 2017 OutlookThis research brief examines 2016 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2017. 07/04/2017 |
Budget and Economic updateDirector Matt Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA). 06/07/2017 |
Actuarial Note for Senate Bill 1; A01354 and A01558The actuarial note analyzes a proposal to amend the Public School Employees' Retirement Code and the State Employees' Retirement Code to (1) require most new employees to select one of three new plan design options and (2) make certain actuarial funding changes. The plan design options include two hybrid plans consisting of defined benefit and defined contribution components. The third option is a stand-alone defined contribution plan. On June 5, 2017 the IFO updated the actuarial note by clarifiying certain language in the summary of Senate Bill 1. A list of the changes is available here. 06/03/2017 |
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2017-18The initial revenue estimate for FY 2017-18 and updated estimates for FY 2016-17. Press Release Presentation 05/02/2017 |
Horse Racing AnalysisAct 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017) 03/13/2017 |
Economic Forecast Summit PresentationDirector Matthew Knittel provided a budget and economic update to the Fifth Annual Economic Forecast Summit sponsored by the Pennsylvania Chamber Educational Foundation and the Pennsylvania Bankers Association. 02/28/2017 |
Long-Term Fiscal OutlookDeputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections. 02/10/2017 |
Mid-Year update FY2016-17The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than the IFO’s November 2016 estimate and $450 million lower than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017-18, revenues are projected to be $32.637 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/25/2017 |
School District Property Tax EliminationDirector Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association (PSBA) regarding the current proposal and forecasts for school district property taxes in Pennsylvania. *updated February 13, 2017 01/19/2017 |
updated School District Property Tax ForecastLetter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast. 01/09/2017 |
Impact Fee update and 2016 OutlookThis research brief examines 2015 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2016. 07/14/2016 |
Impact Fee update - February 2016This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2015 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. 02/29/2016 |
Budget and Economic updateDirector Matthew Knittel provided an economic and revenue update to the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce. 01/29/2016 |
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (updated January 2016) Presentation 01/27/2016 |
Impact Fee update and 2015 OutlookThis research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 06/25/2015 |
Impact Fee update - February 2015This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 02/27/2015 |
updated School District Property Tax ForecastLetter updating the IFO's forecast of school property tax collections for FY 2013-14 through FY 2019-20 (December 2014). 12/12/2014 |
Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax ComparisonThis report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections) 03/17/2014 |
index.cfmRevenue Estimates Revenue & Economic Update Performance Budgeting Energy Pension Analysis Property Tax Wage Contracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases Economic and Property Tax Update Property Tax October 08, 2024 Fiscal Analyst Jesse Bushman presented an update on the Pennsylvania economy and a new projection Hits: 208 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdfprior to the receipt of all revenues for the fiscal year that precedes the official estimate. • Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2016-17 was released on January 25, 2017. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections Hits: 34 |
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdfMid-Year Update MID-YEAR Revenue Update Commonwealth of Pennsylvania January 29, 2018 Mid-Year Update Three parts. Economic forecast: upward revisions due to recent data Hits: 33 |
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdfMatthew Knittel, Director IFO Mid-Year Update Fiscal Year 2023-24 January 30, 2024 Today’s Presentation Presentation runs ~30 minutes • Posted to IFO website at end address them at end If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible Slide 2 Mid-Year Update Economy somewhat stronger than assumed, but revenues running slightly under forecast PA Economic Forecast Update: June 2023 vs January 2024 Hits: 21 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdffor any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2021-22 was released on January 31, 2022. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and Hits: 19 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdffor any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2020-21 was released on January 21, 2021. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and Hits: 19 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdfstatutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2019-20 was released on January 28, 2020. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections Hits: 19 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdfThe Honorable Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly: The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) issues this report as an update to its official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report the partial-year budget, the IFO has postponed release of that document to a future date. This October update may be used in its place as the forecasts are largely based on the same data. However, this report only updates revenue Hits: 18 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdfstatutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2018-19 was released on January 29, 2019. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections Hits: 16 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdfprior to the receipt of all revenues for the fiscal year that precedes the official estimate. • Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2017-18 was released on January 29, 2018. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and revenue collections Hits: 16 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfison uses the financial statement from the Office of the Budget with estimated spending reductions from the October 2023 Fall Update (-$450 million) and incorporates a projected transfer from cigarette tax revenues (-$115 million) to the Tobacco Settlement Fund. Fiscal Year the General Fund in FY 2021-22, revenue increased at a rate of 2.8% for FY 2022-23. The updated forecast for FY 2023-24 collections reflects a reduction of $215 million from the IFO’s Official Revenue Estimate released Hits: 14 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdfState Metric Comparison ........................................................................................................... 8 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ................................................................................. 9 Pennsylvania Demographic Trends .................................................................................... 10 State Domestic Migration Comparison .............................................................................. 11 2018-19 Revenue Update........................................................................................................ 12 2019-20 Revenue Projections ............................................................................................... 13 State Comparison: State-Local Tax Burdens ................................................................... 14 Natural Gas Production and Spot Prices ........................................................................... 15 to June 20. 2 IFO Reports and Analyses Published Reports and Analyses (since January 1, 2018) • Revenue Estimates Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18 (January 2018) Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget (April 2018) Initial Revenue Estimate Hits: 13 |
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf2020 NFI participants HCBS participants NF participants MCOs Improve Measurement of Service Delivery Timeliness Note: CAU is Comprehensive Assessment and Update, CPU is Care Plan and Update, PCP is primary care physician and RAC is Reassessment/Care Plan Update After Inpatient Discharge. 51% 49% 25% 23% 71% Hits: 11 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE To: Matthew Knittel, Director From: Mark J. Ryan Subject: Updated Projections for the State Share of PSERS Employer Contributions Date: December 12, 2017 On December 8, 2017, the Board of a certified rate for FY 2018-19, PSERS also provides projections for the employer rates through FY 2022-23. The updated projection for each fiscal year is lower than the projection available prior to the most recent actuarial valuation. The table Hits: 11 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdfof a mild recession at 15 to 20 percent. FY 2015‐16 General Fund Revenues For the mid‐year revenue update released in January, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) increased its General Fund revenue estimate for FY 2015‐16 by $200 report as required by statute. Due to the budget impasse, the report was re‐released in late January and was updated with certain expenditures as appropriated by the General Assembly and approved by the Governor. Similar to past reports, the updated Hits: 11 |
ReleasesIFO - Releases IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Releases IFO Releases Economic and Property Tax Update October 08, 2024 | Property Tax Fiscal Analyst Jesse Bushman presented an update on the Pennsylvania economy and a new projection of the Act 1 Index to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Hits: 10 |
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdfIn response to a request from the General Assembly, this document updates the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) official General Fund revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 to reflect 20. At that point, it should be clear whether the assumed length of the business closures must be revisited and updated. To provide context for this update, Table 1 displays forecasts by the IFO and Governor’s Budget Office (GBO) for Hits: 9 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdfroughly 9 to 13 percent when compared to control states that did not enact combined reporting. As an update to that analysis, the IFO reviewed CNIT collections and gross domestic product (GDP) data for three large states (Massachusetts, New York and base expansion of 4.2 percent for non-bank corporate taxpayers. In 2007, the Wisconsin Legislative Fiscal Bureau updated the combined reporting base expansion estimate to approximately 11 percent for all corporate taxpayers (including banks). Maryland and Rhode Island analyzed pro Hits: 9 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdfthat staff resources are available for that purpose. 2 IFO Reports and Analyses for CY 2019 Revenue Estimates Mid-Year Update FY 2018-19 (January 2019) Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2019-20 Executive Budget (March 2019) Initial Revenue Estimate January 2019) Natural Gas Production Report, 2018 Q4 (March 2019) Natural Gas Production Report, 2019 Q1 (May 2019) Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook (June 2019) Natural Gas Production Report, 2019 Q2 (August 2019) 3 Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017 Hits: 9 |
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdfretirement system would be required to make its “best efforts” to identify and create a list of “scrutinized companies” and update that list on a quarterly basis. Under the bill, “best efforts” include reviewing and relying on publicly available information regarding the mandate would be dependent upon the business activities of multi-national companies, any list would have to be continuously updated; a stock purchased today might have to be divested tomorrow; stock divested today might go off the list and need Hits: 9 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdfadjusted for any statutory changes that affect General Fund revenues that were not reflected in the June release. ▪ Mid-Year Update This revenue estimate occurs in January of the same fiscal year. For example, the mid-year update for FY 2022-23 was released on January 31, 2023. The update is based on a revised economic forecast and Hits: 8 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdfEconomic & Revenue Update Pennsylvania House and Senate Appropriations Committees February 20, 2018 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg PA 17105 revenues to IFO estimates. Tracks various monthly and quarterly economic metrics for Pennsylvania and the U.S. Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues, including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. Quarterly Hits: 7 |
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdfCensus for that purpose. These projections are termed “interim” projections because certain parameters of the PaSDC population model were not updated. Those parameters include fertility rates, survival rates and components of migration. Those parameters will be updated when official projections are released. The Appendix details the impact from updating the base population used by the model across Hits: 7 |
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdfThis research brief updates an original release in July 2022 (updated August 2022) to include data for more recent months and new demographics data from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook (published Hits: 6 |
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdfmonthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural to actual revenues. Published Reports and Analyses (since June 2016) • FY 2016-17 Official Revenue Estimate (June 2016) • Impact Fee Update and 2016 Outlook (July 2016) • Revenue Estimate Performance (August 2016) • Quarterly Revenue Estimate (August 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter Hits: 6 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfmonthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to actual revenues. Published Reports and Analyses (since January 1, 2016) • Impact Fee Update (January 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 4 (February 2016) • Economic Development Incentives (March 2016) • Analysis of Revenue Proposals in Hits: 6 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfmonthly and fiscal year-to-date revenues and compares them to the same period for the prior year. • Impact Fee Update. Provides detail regarding impact fee revenues including the number of wells subject to the fee and their vintage. • Quarterly Natural to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to actual revenues. Published Reports and Analyses (since January 1, 2016) • Impact Fee Update (January 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 4 (February 2016) • Economic Development Incentives (March 2016) • Analysis of Revenue Proposals in Hits: 6 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfup the de facto statewide ban. The initial mil requirement in 2012 was 2.25; the law was updated with a 10 mil requirement as of 2020. 1 Jurisdiction has delayed implementation of plastic retail bag policy due to the COVID- Opinionworks, “D.C. Resident and Business Bag Use Surveys,” (2013). 12 “SB 270 Report to the Legislature: Implementation Update and Policy Considerations for Management of Reusable Grocery Bags in California,” CalRecycle (2019). Regulatory Policy Scenarios | Page 11 million in fee revenues Hits: 5 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdfrequests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Browne requested an update of the IFO’s five-year projections of General Fund revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget. The fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and 2022-23 revenue projections in the updated General Fund financial statement (next page) utilize projections published in the IFO’s FY 2021-22 Mid-Year Update. Those Hits: 5 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdfthat filing method. 2 The report found that combined reporting could increase revenues by roughly 9% to 13%. As an update to that analysis, the IFO reviewed CNIT collections and GDP data for three large states (Massachusetts, New York and Wisconsin Wisconsin estimated a base expansion of 4% for non-bank corporate tax collections. In 2007, the Wisconsin Legislative Fiscal Bureau updated the combined reporting base expan- sion estimate to approximately 11% of all corporate income tax collections (includes banks). Maryland and Hits: 5 |
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdfPA 17120 Dear Representative Ryan: Thank you for your recent request that asks the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide updates to prior requests that were published November 2017 and September 2019. 1 This letter uses the same data sources and methodologies used in those analyses to provide updated estimates. The updated tables are as follows. Table 1 provides the latest IFO baseline for school district property taxes. This Hits: 5 |
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf School property tax Demographics Revenue estimates Pensions / Act 5 2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax Update New Forecast, Including Homestead Property Background on Property Tax and Discussion Regarding Possible Replacement Options Challenges for Replacement: Growing vs and 2015-16. There are 125 school districts in each group. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. March 8, 2018 Demographic Update Population Distribution: U.S. vs. PA Trends for School Age, Working Age and Older Adult Groups Population Distribution: U.S Hits: 5 |
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdfMid‐Year Update Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 2015 Revenue Conference Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016. • Forecasts: June 2014 vs. January Tax Revenue 1,902 1,758 144 Non‐Tax Revenue 478 454 24 Dollar amounts are in millions. FYTD actuals updated on Feb. 2 nd to reflect January collections. 17 28.Jan.2015 18 Increases Decreases Corporate Net Income $230 Non‐ Hits: 5 |
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdfEconomic Outlook And Property Tax Update Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials November 16, 2021 Two Parts Overview of IFO Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Will workers return? ▪ Does inflation decelerate? ▪ Do budget surpluses last? Property Tax Update ▪ No look at COVID-19 impact on SD collections yet ▪ Some data suggest decline not as bad as anticipated | stimulus Hits: 5 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdfGrowth Rate 6.1% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% Note: Millions of dollars. Includes Fall Update spending adjustments of -$450 million for FY 23-24. General Fund Expenditures: Average Growth and Dollar Change November 15, 2023 725 $437 $276 $416 $228 $367 Dollar Change -$500 -$246 $32 -$136 -$7 -$143 Note: Millions of dollars. Includes Fall Update spending adjustments of -$450 million for FY 23-24. General Fund Financial Statement November 15, 2023 12 Budget IFO Five- Hits: 5 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdfResearch Brief COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths (February 2022). 5 See IFO Research Brief Where Did the Workers Go? (Update) (October 2022). Number of Residents (000s) Change (000s) 2022 2019 2022 2025 19-22 22-25 LFPR 0 to 17 increase 0.5% to $43.69 billion. (See Table 4.1.) Including statutory changes enacted with the state budget, the updated FY 2022-23 forecast used by this report reflects an increase of $1.50 billion over the IFO’s Official Hits: 5 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdfoutperform the IFO’s Official Revenue Estimate by a significant amount. Including statutory changes enacted with the state budget, the updated forecast used by this report reflects an increase of $2.26 billion over the IFO’s Official Revenue Estimate released state funds in FY 2022-23, assuming the enhanced federal matching rate is not further extended. ▪ The administration’s Fall Update recommends reducing DHS appropriations by $798 million for FY 2021-22. The primary reason for the reduction is the extension Hits: 5 |
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdfAdministration (September 13, 2022). Figure 4.1 Annual Ethane Production by Region Note: Millions of barrels. Source: Natural Gas Weekly Update, U.S. Energy Information Administration (August 2022). 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2010 2011 2012 variety of chemicals, plastics, solvents, synthetic rubbers, antifreeze, pharmaceuticals, and other products produced by downstream com- panies.” 19 An updated Robert Morris University study (2021) on the economic impact of the recently con- structed Shell Petrochemical Complex in Beaver County Hits: 4 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdfincreased TY 2020 profits and behavioral responses to a potential federal corporate tax rate increase in the near term. ▪ The updated sales and use tax (SUT) estimate is $382 million above the IFO’s revised official estimate, with an increase in spending associated with payments to individuals under the American Rescue Plan Act, which was not included in previous estimates. ▪ The updated personal income tax (PIT) estimate exceeds the IFO’s revised official estimate by $449 million due largely to an improved Hits: 4 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf2 The report found that combined reporting could increase revenues by roughly 9 to 13 percent. As an update to that analysis, the IFO reviewed CNIT collections and GDP data for the six states (“CR states”) that have implemented com- bined 658 million due to the CNIT rate reduction. The Department of Revenue anticipates that the proposal will require updates to the business tax system and additional staff training at a one-time cost of $1 million (not included in table). 6 Hits: 4 |
RB_2024_07_Budget_Update.pdfeffective at that time and the spending policies embedded in the FY 23-24 budget. Those amounts can now be updated based on the FY 24-25 enacted budget, recent tax law changes and the latest revenue estimates. For the same three fiscal years, the updated deficits are -$892 million (FY 23-24), -$3.3 billion (FY 24-25) and -$4.5 billion (FY 25-26 Hits: 4 |
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdfGreater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce February 12, 2015 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office Budget and Economic Update What Is the Independent Fiscal Office? • Our role in the budget process. • Other products and publications. Tax Revenues and Budget Our Primary Duties: • Annual Revenue Estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Economic and Budget Outlook: November 15. • Mid-Year Update: late January. Office Does Not Make Policy Recommendations. 12.Feb.2015 3 The Independent Fiscal Office Two Regular Hits: 4 |
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdfEconomic Forecasts Annual Growth Rate or Change 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP Jun‐2015 1.9% 2.0% n.a. Updated 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% Consumer Prices Jun‐2015 0.5% 1.9% n.a. Updated ‐0.1% 1.0% 1.6% Wages and Salaries Jun‐2015 3.8% 3.9% n.a. Updated 3.4% Hits: 4 |
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdfEconomic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5, 2018 FY 17- FY 2018-19 Executive Budget. Excludes severance tax revenue proposal. June.05.2018 10 General Fund Balance Sheet Exec. Budget Updated 2017-18 2017-18 Adjusted Beginning Balance -$1,524 -$1,524 Gross Revenues 34,752 34,501 Less: Refunds -1 Hits: 4 |
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdfthe expenditure was recorded. Department of Criminal Justice Expenditures by Fiscal Year Agency Overview and Recommendations | Page 12 • Update to DNA Testing Law - Act 147 of 2018. This legislation updates Pennsylvania’s DNA testing law to reflect technological advances and criminal justice expertise developed since 2002. The law expands the circumstances under Hits: 4 |
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdfEconomic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25, 2017 Presentation has three parts. Economic update. Unexpected broad weakness. Revenue update for FY 2016-17. Revenue forecast for FY 2017-18. Theme: What is Hits: 4 |
Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdfPA Payroll Jobs Continue to Recover, but Significant Shortfall Remains This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce PUA) to $650 (traditional) per week. The federal programs are scheduled to expire in two weeks. In last month’s update, the IFO speculated that many traditional UC recipients would attempt to rejoin the labor force, but there would only be Hits: 4 |
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdfand TY 2021 profits and behavioral responses to a potential federal corporate tax rate increase in the near term. ▪ The updated sales and use tax (SUT) estimate is $442 million above the IFO’s revised official estimate, with an increase in spending associated with payments to individuals under the American Rescue Plan Act, which was not included in previous estimates. ▪ The updated personal income tax (PIT) estimate exceeds the IFO’s revised official estimate by $474 million due largely to an improved Hits: 4 |
April_1_Revenue_Update.pdfpa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 1, 2024 Dear Chairs Martin, Hughes, Harris and Grove: This letter provides a brief update to the IFO’s General Fund revenue forecast based on year-to-date revenues. Through March, revenues are running $284 million (0.9%) above the IFO’s FY 2023-24 Official Estimate (published June 20, 2023). Updates for specific revenue sources that impact the revenue forecast for the current and subsequent fiscal year include: • Most gross receipts Hits: 4 |
Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office January 21, 2016 IFO to Release Revised Revenue Estimates and Updated Fiscal Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2:00 p.m. Location Hits: 4 |
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdfactuarial equivalence for SERS is still based on the 1983 Group Annuity Mortality table. If the actuarial equivalence is not updated for SERS, actuarial gains would occur if members elect the cost neutral Option 4 withdrawal. KFHG did not reflect any reduce the unfunded accrued liability determined for the Amendment. If the costs/savings of this Amendment were based on the updated assumptions, it is likely that the impact of the Amendment would be different. • In KFHG’s 2015 experience study, the Hits: 4 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdfannual transfer of $115 million from cigarette taxes. The balance sheet utilizes revenue estimates from the IFO's Mid-Year Update (FY 23-24 and FY 24-25) and out-year growth rates from the IFO's Five-Year Outlook (Nov data related to electricity generation rates and electricity exports. On March 7, the IFO will release its annual Pennsylvania Electricity Update that contains these data for Pennsylvania and regional states. State Debt ($ billions) U.S. Rank Avg. Balance U.S. Rank Hits: 3 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdfThis update provides an overview of statewide school district (SD) property tax collections as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Annual Growth Rate Revenues ($ billions) Revenues Growth Rate School District Property Tax Update Outlook Independent Fiscal Office | June 2023 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Forecast The IFO forecast of SD property tax collections Hits: 3 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdfThis update provides an overview of statewide school district (SD) property tax collections as published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Annual Growth Rate Revenues ($ billions) Revenues Growth Rate School District Property Tax Update Outlook Independent Fiscal Office | August 2022 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Forecast The IFO forecast of SD property tax collections Hits: 3 |
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdfThis report provides an updated forecast of statewide school district property taxes based on the latest published revenue data and economic projections by the Independent are made based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019- 20 current-year property tax Hits: 3 |
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdfMatthew Knittel, Director Budget Roundtable Fiscal Year 2023-24 January 31, 2024 Overview and Notes Mid-Year Update presented Jan 30 • Revenue and economic update • A few demographic, revenue and economic slides added to provide context IFO required to examine all revenue proposals in the Hits: 3 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdfthat were reviewed by the IFO. The last review was released in April 2021. Where possible, this year’s analysis updates the April 2021 analysis if new data exist. Comparison to Other States As of January 1, 2022, Pennsylvania and 19 prior analysis, there has been minimal data that would materially change the results. Therefore, this analysis provides only a general update to the more detailed analysis published in April 2021. This analysis does update the assumptions related to job loss and Hits: 3 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdfTable 2.2 .) 2 The estimate reflects the IFO’s official estimate released on June 18, 2018 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 3 Based on gross collections data from Connecticut, Massachusetts unrounded amounts. The June 2018 estimate reflects the IFO's official estimate released on June 18, 2018 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. Table 2.1 Adjustment to Revenue Estimate for FY Hits: 3 |
RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdfThis research brief updates a prior release (September 2021) by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. These updated estimates are based on recent data releases from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Safety Hits: 3 |
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdfnear future, the economic impact analysis considers the impact of the direct stimulus 3 See Oliver Armantier, et al., “An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks,” Liberty Street Economics (April 2021), https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2021/04/an-update-on-how-households-are-using- stimulus-checks.html. Income Level Amount Share Below $25k $1.21 34.8% $25k to Hits: 3 |
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdfcontracted actuary. Revenue projections are from the IFO using data from S&P Global and the IFO’s mid-year update presented in January 2024. Other data sources are noted within this report. The office would like to thank PSERS and 25 to FY 2051-52. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2024-25 are from the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2028-29 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November Hits: 3 |
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdfits contracted actuary. Revenue projections are from the IFO using data from IHS Markit and the IFO’s mid-year update presented in January 2023. Other data sources are noted within this report. The office would like to thank PSERS and 24 to FY 2050-51. General Fund revenue estimates through FY 2023-24 are from the IFO's Mid-Year Update. 3 Growth rates through FY 2027-28 are from the IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (Five-Year Outlook; November Hits: 3 |
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdfPA 17120 Dear Representatives Pashinski and Sturla: Your staff recently contacted the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) with a request to update certain tables and graphs that have been published by the office. This letter contains updates to those tables and graphs. To provide context, a brief description follows. The original documents can be found on the Hits: 3 |
Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdfMid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2018-19 Preliminary Forecast FY 2019-20 January 29, 2019 Forecast: June 3% -6.2% Inheritance 6.3% 6.5% Gaming Expansion n.a. n.a. All Other -17.0% -12.1% Update for FY 2018-19 January 29, 2019 8 IFO Official Mid-Year Update Estimate Amount $ Change Growth General Fund $33 Hits: 3 |
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdfEconomic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 12, 2018 FY Budget. Excludes severance tax revenue proposal. June.12.2018 19 General Fund Balance Sheet FY 17-18 Executive IFO Budget Updated Adjusted Beginning Balance -$1,524 -$1,524 Gross Revenues 34,752 34,501 Less: Refunds -1,385 -1,285 Plus Hits: 3 |
Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdfEconomic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE The Allegheny Conference on Community Development and The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 FY 2018-19 Executive Budget. Excludes severance tax revenue proposal. June.04.2018 12 General Fund Balance Sheet Exec. Budget Updated 2017-18 2017-18 Adjusted Beginning Balance -$1,524 -$1,524 Gross Revenues 34,752 34,501 Less: Refunds -1 Hits: 3 |
PICPA_Presentation.pdfToday’s Presentation June 7, 2017 2 Revenue Update for FY 2016-17. Negative (base) revenue growth through May. Revenue shortfall approaches ~$1.0 billion. Economic Update. Lots of jobs created, does not translate to spending. Weak spending yields minimal profits growth. Budget Proposals and Tax Burden Hits: 3 |
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfApplication (TraCS) was configured to record the race/ethnicity of drivers that are ticketed as part of traffic enforcement. This update is an oppor- tunity for PSP to identify any racial or ethnic disparities in traffic enforcement. From 2002 to 2010 new technology to improve performance and reduce costs. ▪ High-capacity, accurate information sharing throughout the Commonwealth, improved workforce efficiencies and updated technology to better support the core segments of the department. 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18- Hits: 3 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdfTable 2.2.) 2 The estimate reflects the IFO’s official estimate released on June 18, 2018 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. 3 Based on gross collections data from Connecticut, Massachusetts unrounded amounts. The June 2018 estimate reflects the IFO's official estimate released on June 18, 2018 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2018-19 state budget. Table 2.1 Adjustment to Revenue Estimate for FY Hits: 3 |
NFIB_Presentation.pdfPennsylvania Fiscal Update National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) December 13, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Who we are. ◦ Established September 2011; 10 staff term structural issues. ◦ Has morphed into early deficit estimate for this/next fiscal year. End of January: Mid-Year Revenue Update. ◦ Updated projections for the current year. Preview of next year. Early April: analysis of proposals in Executive Budget. ◦ Any proposal Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-06.pdfIn December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections a funds transfer ($200 million) from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association (JUA). The transfer was included in the updated official estimate per Act 44, but was blocked as a result of a federal court ruling. Revenue collections for the Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-04.pdfIn December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through April, total General Fund revenues are $173 million, or 0.6 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of April, General Fund collections were $325 million (-8.0 percent) below estimate. Overall sales Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-03.pdfIn December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through March, total General Fund revenues are $498 million, or 2.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. For the month of March, General Fund collections were $121 million (-2.7 percent) below estimate. Overall sales Hits: 3 |
MTR-2018-02.pdfIn December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through February, total General Fund revenues are $619 million, or 3.0 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. February General Fund collections were $158 million (4.6 percent) above estimate. The three largest sources of tax Hits: 3 |
MRU-2020-3.pdfmillion) partially offset by overages in withholding and annual payments ($16.3 million and $3.5 million, respectively). Monthly Revenue Update March 2020 Realty transfer (RTT) and inheritance (INH) tax collections performed well in March, despite the closure of county courthouses 20 and FY 2020-21 revenue collections. The IFO plans to release a preliminary estimate of the virus impact with updated estimates for this fiscal year and guidance for next fiscal year. This update is currently scheduled for release on April Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdfforecasters shows that one-half project the US economy will enter into a recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics that are tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes self- Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdfprobability for a US economic recession within the next year, up 10 percentage points from the month prior. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows: Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdfpoll of economic forecasters projects a 60% probability for a U.S. economic recession within the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes self- Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdfPA Homes Sold Decline by 20% from Prior Year; Listings Remain Flat This economic update uses recent housing market data to assess the performance of the spring housing market, which typically runs from March to increased dramatically, and analysts are evaluating whether high rates will have a material impact on home sales and prices. This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: ▪ Number of Homes Listed Number of homes listed for sale during the month by Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdfEmployment Measures Post Strong Gains in January 2023 This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey) The month-to-month change in payroll employment (excludes self-employed Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdfNumber of PA Homes Listed for Sale Declined 23.3% in May This update uses recent housing market data to assess the performance of the peak housing market season, which typically runs from March mortgage rates have nearly doubled, and analysts are evaluating how long higher rates will impact home sales and prices. This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: ▪ Number of Homes Listed Number of homes listed for sale during the month by Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdfNew UI Claims Return to Pre-COVID Levels This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows: Change in Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey) The month-to-month change in payroll employment (excludes self- Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdfpoll of economic forecasters projects a 63% probability for a U.S. economic recession within the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market published on a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes self- Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdfis a one-third to two-thirds chance of at least a mild recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy might enter into recession. Labor market data are a regular and timely basis, with short real-time lags. The four labor market metrics that are tracked for this update are as follows: • Change in Payroll Jobs. The (seasonally adjusted) month-to-month change in total payroll employment (excludes self- Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdfFebruary Payroll Jobs Gains Revert to Pre-COVID Average This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market basis, with short real-time lags. The five labor market metrics (seasonally adjusted except new UI claims) tracked for this update are as follows: Change in Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey) The month-to-month change in payroll employment (excludes self- Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdfMortgage Rate Growth Moderates Ahead of Peak 2023 Housing Season This economic update uses recent housing market data to assess the performance of the spring housing market, which typically runs from March through increased dramatically, and analysts are evaluating whether higher rates will have a material impact on home sales and prices. This update tracks five housing metrics for Pennsylvania: ▪ Number of Homes Listed Number of homes listed for sale during the month by Hits: 3 |
mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2016-17 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017-18, revenues Hits: 3 |
May_1_Revenue_Update.pdfpa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE May 1, 2024 Dear Chairs Martin, Hughes, Harris and Grove: This letter provides a second update to the IFO’s General Fund revenue forecast based on year-to-date revenues. Through April, revenues are running $326 million (+0.9%) above the IFO’s fiscal year (FY) 2023- 24 Official Estimate (published June 20, 2023). Updates for specific sources that impact the revenue forecast for the current and subsequent fiscal year include: • Personal income tax (PIT Hits: 3 |
Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdfImpact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter which may include backlogged claims). On average, UC claimants receive $515 (PUA) to $650 (traditional) per week. The IFO will update these data once the May jobs figures are released later this month. Labor Market Update June 2021 Feb Mar Apr Hits: 3 |
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdfcompares the economic forecast used for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) official estimate in June 2017 to the updated May 2018 forecast. The com- parison shows: An upward revision to 2017 and 2018 real GDP growth. Lower consumer price on net operating loss deduc- tions. The adjustments increased General Fund revenues by $2.3 billion, for an updated FY 2017-18 official estimate of $34.7 billion. Based on revenue collections through April and projections for the remainder of the Hits: 3 |
IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdfDear Representative Ryan: Thank you for your March 2, 2022 letter that asks the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues. This analysis uses the same data sources and methodologies used to provide previous estimates. The updated tables are as follows. Table 1 provides the latest IFO baseline for school district property taxes. This baseline was released Hits: 3 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdfFY 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget. The IFO balance sheet utilizes revenue estimates from the IFO's Mid-Year Update and growth rates from the Five-Year Outlook (Nov 2023). Expenditures for current year and budget year are from the may not sum to total due to rounding. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Estimates and projections by the IFO and updated with December 2023 data. Age Cohort 2020 2025 2030 '20 to '25 '25 to '30 '20 to '25 '25 to Hits: 3 |
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdfIFO’s State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison report released on January 19, 2022 is enclosed. An updated report for state and local taxes collected in 2020 will be released by the IFO in February 2023. Representative Mercuri Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties and other areas. For each release, the U.S. Census Bureau updates the entire time series of estimates from the last Decennial Census (April 1, 2020) to July 1 of the current Hits: 3 |
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdfFY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2023 IFO Mid-Year Update Presentation should run 25 minutes ▪ Will be posted to IFO website at end ▪ Please use chat feature to submit questions PIT is personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for one-time/new transfers. January revenues are estimated. Mid-Year Update for FY 2022-23 January 31, 2023 14 IFO Official Estimate (June 2022) Mid-Year Update Amount Growth Adjusted Amount Hits: 3 |
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdfMid-Year Update FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office January 31, 2022 Today’s Presentation Revenues significantly outperform estimates ▪ Corporate net income, sales tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for due date shifts, one-time transfers and extra deposit day for withholding. Mid-Year Update for FY 2021-22 January 31, 2022 15 IFO Official Estimate Mid-Year Update Amount Growth Adjusted Amount $ Change Adjusted Hits: 3 |
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdfMid-Year Update Economic Forecast Revenues Through January Revised Forecast FY 2019-20 Preliminary Forecast FY 2020-21 January 28, 2020 PA Economic 1) $115m SUT transfer and $27m higher CFA transfer and (2) $74m withholding transfer this year and $25m last year. Update for FY 2019-20 January 28, 2020 8 IFO Official Mid-Year Update Estimate Amount $ Change Growth Adjust General Fund Hits: 3 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfher savings. (Note that the American Academy of Actuaries has recently adopted new actuarial standards of practice that require the updating of mortality tables. This should alleviate a substantial element of longevity risk in defined benefit plans, while requiring commensurate increases plans are also in decline. In October of 2012, the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College released an update on its National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI). The NRRI was developed to 18 show the share of working households that Hits: 3 |
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdfrequired to submit an Annual Report no later than March 1 of each year following the closing date. The report updates the documentation contained in the Initial Report regarding: ▪ Number of jobs created and retained by each rural business. 9 ▪ Average wage of the jobs reported. ▪ Any rural growth investments that were sold or repaid during the prior calendar year. ▪ An updated Initial Report for any new rural growth investments made during the previous calendar year. The first Annual Reports were submitted Hits: 2 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdfpublishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties and certain metro areas. For each release, the entire time series is updated from the last Decennial Census (April 1, 2020) to July 1 of the latest data year. The 2022 data are labor market result in fewer discouraged workers. As requested, the U6 indicator was added to the IFO’s Monthly Economic Update. Senator Haywood requested an analysis showing the effect of a regressive tax system on Pennsylvania’s workforce. All of the Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdfof youth (ages 6 to 19). California legalized recreational marijuana in 2016. 7 ▪ The Effect of State Marijuana Legalizations: 2021 Update (2021) presents the difference in driving fatalities between the 11 states (Colorado, Washington, Alaska, Oregon, California, Nevada, Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts York Poison Center | SUNY Upstate. 7 See: Cannabis-Poison-Control-Infographic. 8 See: The Effect of State Marijuana Legalizations: 2021 Update | Cato Institute. Tax and Revenue Proposals | Page 5 states that had not legalized either medical or recreational marijuana within the Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdfstudent loan repayments, delayed spending of federal stimulus payments and in- flation rates that are much higher than anticipated. ▪ The updated personal income tax (PIT) estimate exceeds the IFO’s official estimate by $2.63 billion, an increase of 20.8% collections continue to outperform expectations, likely attributable to a strong stock market and elevated home values. As a result, the updated estimate exceeds the IFO’s revised official estimate by $265 million, an increase of 16.8% over the prior fiscal Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdfstudent loan repayments, delayed spending of federal stimulus payments and in- flation rates that are much higher than anticipated. ▪ The updated personal income tax (PIT) estimate exceeds the IFO’s official estimate by $2.53 billion, an increase of 20.1% collections continue to outperform expectations, likely attributable to a strong stock market and elevated home values. As a result, the updated estimate exceeds the IFO’s revised official estimate by $269 million, an increase of 17.1% over the prior fiscal Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdfFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revenue Estimates (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) today released updated revenue estimates for FY 2015-16 and FY 2016-17, according to director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues are estimated to be $31.0 billion, an increase of $406 million (1.3 percent) over FY 2014-15. The updated estimate is $23 million lower than the one issued by the IFO in May, but $127 million higher than the Hits: 2 |
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdfOctober Revenue and Economic Update FY 2020-21 Independent Fiscal Office October 29, 2020 Modest Improvement to 2020 Economic Forecast October 29, 2020 1 June 2020 (Administration) and June 2020 (IFO). FY 2020-21 IFO Revised Estimate October 29, 2020 10 June Official Revision October Update Dollar Shifts Adjusted Growth General Fund $35,874 $650 $36,524 $1,938 0.2% Corp. Net Income 3,188 Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdfdelayed due dates. 11 The estimate reflects the IFO’s official estimate released on June 21, 2019 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 16 Dollar Amount Growth Amount unrounded amounts. The June 2019 estimate reflects the IFO's official estimate released on June 21, 2019 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. Table 2.1 Adjustment to Revenue Estimate for FY Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdfin millions. Assumes October 1, 2020 implementation. The estimates are preliminary and based on discussions with the department. DHS may update the estimates as more information becomes available. On a state fiscal year basis, the additional funding for prevention services is millions. Assumes October 1, 2020 effective date. The estimates are preliminary and based on discussions with the department. DHS may update the estimates as more information becomes available. February 27, 2020 Page 7 Implementation issues to monitor: Will Pennsylvania be Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdfHarrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Tomlinson: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide an update to a previous letter transmitted by the office regarding estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate (PTRR) program for certain homeowners. 1 Your updated request specified certain parameters of the proposal that are relevant to the estimates: Establish a new base rebate of Hits: 2 |
RB_2024_05_Treasury.pdfThis research brief updates a prior release (September 2023) by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) that highlighted the recent General Fund windfall generated by brief was produced by Joe Shockey. Questions can be directed to jshockey@ifo.state.pa.us. Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues - Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | May 2024 GF Avg. Fed Funds Treasury Effective Fiscal Year Daily Bal. Target Rate Collect Hits: 2 |
RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdf2,005 for 1 person and the 200% FPIG limit is $2,430. • For federal fiscal year 2022, the USDA updated the definition of the Thrifty Food Plan to increase benefits. This change motivated a significant increase in the maximum monthly expansion, as opposed to increased participation. While state policy changes increased the number of recipients (higher FPIG threshold), the federal update drove the increase in the maximum monthly benefit (+52% over four years), which outpaced grocery inflation as measured by the Hits: 2 |
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide an update on the status of public pension funds in the Commonwealth. The text that follows uses the latest data to provide they are not included in the General Fund revenue base for that fiscal year in Table 2. The IFO will update these projections as part of its Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook in mid-November. Table 3 uses data compiled Hits: 2 |
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdfmillion, while a one-half assumption yields $551 million. For the purpose of its June Official Revenue Estimate and October Update, the IFO had assumed that all loans would be forgiven and would be non-taxable. If that assumption is incorrect have material implications for General Fund revenues. The IFO will revisit that assumption with the release of its Mid- Year Update in January. At that time, it will be more clear whether Congress and state lawmakers have enacted or intend to Hits: 2 |
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdfand demographics ▪ Long-term structural surplus or deficit for the state Other Duties and Releases ▪ Monthly releases: revenue collections, economic update ▪ Pensions: determine if actuarial note required prior to further consideration ▪ Property tax: forecasts and analysis depending on requests/data available 2.7% Total 12,701 13,003 13,090 301 87 0.2% 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Updated for 2020 Decennial Census. Forecast by IFO. See “2021 Demographic Outlook” Nov. 2021. Economy: PA Labor Force Contraction Continues January Hits: 2 |
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdfshort-term deficit, but the long-term imbalance remains. Long-Term Outlook Summary 10.Feb.2017 13 Mid-Year Revenue Update 14 10.Feb.2017 Revised revenue projections for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 Revenues Through January 10.Feb 535 -33,443 -39,486 EndingBalance (Nov.) 2 -524 -1,746 -2,980 Revenue Adjustment (Jan.) -250 -334 n.a. Updated Balance (Jan.) -774 -2,080 Note: figures in dollar millions. School Property Tax Projections 21 10.Feb.2017 Estimates through Hits: 2 |
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf380 Over IFO official estimate Note: millions of dollars. Gains are relative to IFO official estimate released in June 2018. Update for FY 2018-19 March 1, 2019 12 IFO Official Mid-Year Update Estimate Amount $ Change Growth General Fund $33,899 $34,272 $373 -0.9% Corporate Net Income 3,075 3,280 Hits: 2 |
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdfNovember 19, 2018 PA Fiscal Update and Outlook County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania November 19, 2018 1 Three Quick Updates Demographic projections and outlook (3 slides) Job creation and the PA labor force (3) FY 2019-20 Hits: 2 |
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf2023 61% Apr 2023 61% I. Recent PA Economic Trends April 19, 2023 3 Feb 2022 June 2022 Feb 2023 Update or Note Philadelphia CPI-U 7.3% 8.8% 6.9% Energy Only 24.4% 46.0% 6.6% -5 in effect as of January 1, 2023. Alaska, Hawaii and other territories are excluded. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, updated February 2023. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Consumption (million taxed gallons) April 19, 2023 16 Gasoline -15.5% 2020 +9.2% Hits: 2 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdfPerformance-Based Budget Board January 9, 2023 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) Year 5 Agencies (final cycle year, schedule must be updated) ▪ Dept. of Conservation & Natural Resources (DCNR) ▪ Dept. of Drug & Alcohol Programs (DDAP) | PA Dept. of Revenue (DOR) ▪ PA Dept. of PA residents lived within a 10-minute walk of service area | 75% of minorities | 60% of low-income | to be updated in 2023 Lack of data on infrastructure project efficiency ▪ Recommendations include on-time, on-budget metrics for projects ▪ DCNR identified Hits: 2 |
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdfwithin a 10-minute drive. It is recommended that these metrics be tracked in the future, and DCNR plans to update the study results in 2023. The C2P2 grant program provided $68 million in grants for 317 projects FY 2021-22 time during calendar year (CY) 2019. The metric is recommended to be tracked for future years, and DCNR plans to update the metrics sometime in CY 2023. ▪ The share of minorities and low-income households that lived within a 10-minute Hits: 2 |
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfmilitary personnel 4 Keystone State ChalleNGe Academy………………………………………………………………………………………………. Manage residential high school for at-risk youth 5 Facilities Maintenance…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Maintain and update property for use by DMVA 6 Administration…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Provide organizational leadership and support DMVA: Activities and Primary Services Provided Veterans Homes based on the 2010 release of the K-12 educational Common Core State Standard (CCSS). Some sites began using the updated test in 2018 and all sites will begin using the new test in the near future. 7 In the new Hits: 2 |
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfAn additional activity re- lated to the Medical Assistance portion of the Office of Medical Assistance Programs (OMAP) is also updated from last year’s report. Other services that DHS provides are addressed in separate reports. Pennsylvania is one of the 2 includes services for persons with ID/autism, child welfare and youth services, state-funded mental health services and an update for MA-Physical Health Services. Part 3 includes child development and early learning, long-term living and other grant programs Hits: 2 |
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdfprepares and maintains the Commonwealth’s Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). The agency ensures emergency management stakeholders review and update plans according to state and federal guidance. The primary goals and outcomes of this activity are as follows: Implement the National trained 4,163 3,447 3,850 2,683 3,500 3,500 Outcome % Counties and municipalities w/ updated annual -- -- -- -- 6% 7% emergency preparedness plans maintained in PEMA plan management system (CEM Planner) % NIMS adoption resolutions collected 2 54% 62% 75% Hits: 2 |
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdfCIP) programs contribute another $17 million in state funding annually. JRI-2 policy proposals recommend that the state update the grant-in-aid funding formula and reinvest JRI savings to provide increased state support for county probation. The additional state funds administrative and technical support for the School Safety and Security Committee. The Committee is responsible for developing and updating the criteria for school safety assessments, developing and maintaining the criteria and registration system for school safety assessors and administering the School Hits: 2 |
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdfcounties is based on a formula established decades ago. This review recommends that the Commonwealth explore ways to update the allocation formula in order to distribute appropriated funds using an evidence-based approach that targets current needs. Enhance the collection and counties is based on a formula established decades ago. This review recommends that the Commonwealth explore ways to update the allocation formula in order to distribute appropriated funds using an evidence-based approach that targets current needs. Enhance the collection and Hits: 2 |
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdffor occupancy planning purposes as leases expire. A 2016 Joint State Government Commission Report recommended that DGS prioritize “updates to the state inventory system and calculating utilization rates for state office buildings to provide a more comprehensive and transparent picture of for occupancy planning purposes as leases expire. A 2016 Joint State Government Commission Report recommended that DGS prioritize “updates to the state inventory system and calculating utilization rates for state office buildings to provide a more comprehensive and transparent picture of Hits: 2 |
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdfset by Budget Office and IFO Mar to Jul general research, design data template, contact other states (NM, WA, MN), update to PBB Board staff Mid August first meeting with each agency, transmit data template Sept to Nov multiple follow up meetings, meet with legislative staff agency template submissions, research benchmarks with other states, update to PBB Board Dec final template submissions, begin report drafts Jan 2019 provide drafts to agencies, agency edits, final meetings Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdfdelayed due dates. 11 The estimate reflects the IFO’s official estimate released on June 21, 2019 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. Official Revenue Estimate | Page 16 Amount Growth Amount Growth unrounded amounts. The June 2019 estimate reflects the IFO's official estimate released on June 21, 2019 and updated for statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget. Official Revenue Estimate | Page 17 Amount Growth Amount Growth Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdfon net operating loss deduc- tions. The adjustments increased General Fund revenues by $2.3 billion, for an updated FY 2017-18 official estimate of $34.7 billion. Based on revenue collections through mid-June and projections for the remainder of lack of a funds transfer from the Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association, which was included in the updated official rev- enue estimate per Act 44, but was blocked as a result of a federal court ruling. Relative to FY 2016- Hits: 2 |
Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdfOCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions Hits: 2 |
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdfOCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions Hits: 2 |
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdfOCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions Hits: 2 |
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdfOCTOBER REVENUE AND ECONOMIC UPDATE Fiscal Year 2020-21 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 10:00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions Hits: 2 |
NGQU_2024_Q2.pdfDepartment of Environmental Protection (DEP), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on natural gas production and prices. The table below shows recent trends in quarterly unconventional production volume, well counts and only. Average PA price (in $/MMBtu), is a weighted average spot price at two major PA hubs. Natural Gas Quarterly Update April to June 2024 Q2 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2024 The table below compares year-over-year (YOY) growth Hits: 2 |
NGQU_2024_Q1.pdfDepartment of Environmental Protection (DEP), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on natural gas production and prices. The table below shows recent trends in quarterly unconventional production volume, well counts and Source: Production volume and well counts are reported by DEP. Price data are from Natural Gas Intelligence. Natural Gas Quarterly Update January to March 2024 Q1 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2024 The table below compares YOY growth in quarterly production Hits: 2 |
NGQU_2023_Q4.pdfThis document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on natural gas production and prices. The table below shows recent trends in quarterly unconventional production volume, well counts and Source: Production volume and well counts are reported by DEP. Price data are from Natural Gas Intelligence. Natural Gas Quarterly Update October to December 2023 Q4 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FOURTH QUARTER 2023 The table below shows county-level production volume and Hits: 2 |
NGQU_2023_Q3.pdfPennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on natural gas production and prices. The table below shows recent trends in quarterly unconventional production volume, well counts and counts are reported by DEP. Price data are from Natural Gas Intelligence. Natural Gas Summary: 2023 Q3 Natural Gas Quarterly Update July to September 2023 Q3 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE THIRD QUARTER 2023 The table below compares year-over-year (YOY) growth Hits: 2 |
NGQU_2023_Q2.pdfPennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on natural gas production and prices. The table below shows recent trends in quarterly unconventional production volume, well counts and only. Average PA price (in $/MMBtu) is a weighted average spot price at two major PA hubs. Natural Gas Quarterly Update April to June 2023 Q2 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE SECOND QUARTER 2023 The table compares year-over-year (YOY) growth in Hits: 2 |
NGQU_2023_Q1.pdfthe Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Bentek Energy to provide a quarterly update on natural gas production and prices. The table below shows recent trends in quarterly unconventional production volume, well counts and only. Average PA price (in $/MMBtu), is a weighted average spot price at two major PA hubs. Natural Gas Quarterly Update January to March 2023 Q1 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE FIRST QUARTER 2023 The table compares year-over-year (YOY) growth in Hits: 2 |
MTR-2018-1.pdfIn December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections. 1 Through January, total General Fund revenues are $462 million, or 3 percent, above the IFO’s updated official estimate. Most of the year-to-date overage occurred in the current month. January 2018 total General Fund collections Hits: 2 |
MTR-2018-05.pdfIn December, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released an update of the fiscal year (FY) 2017-18 official revenue estimate (originally published in June 2017) and corresponding revised monthly projections 180.8% Dollar amounts in millions. See final page for detail. MONTHLY TRENDS May 2018 - INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE - 1 The update incorporated estimates of various tax law changes, authorized transfers and borrowing. The original baseline estimates did not change from June Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-08.pdfDollar amounts are in millions. PA ELECTRICITY MARKET TRENDS The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases an Electricity Monthly Update 1 , which provides historical revenues, retail sales (demand) and average retail prices of electricity on national, regional and state levels hour. Average retail prices for 2016 are through June. Retail Electricity Prices 1 See: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/ 2 See: http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=PA 3 See: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf Hits: 2 |
MSC_March_31_2022.pdfECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Marcellus Shale Coalition Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 31, 2022 1 Overview A sizable budget surplus this year ▪ Revenues significantly outperform 6.99% for tax year 2026 | 5.99% for tax year 2027 Overall Net Tax Cut Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update March 31, 2022 9 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-20 20-30 Hits: 2 |
MRU_2024_07.pdfthis month, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2024-25. Therefore, this update does not include comparisons to July estimates and only compares to revenues from the same month in the prior year is used to balance the FY 2024-25 budget and the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates. Monthly Revenue Update July 2024 FY 2024-25 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 2 |
MRU_2023_07.pdfthis month, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release monthly revenue projections for fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Therefore, this update does not include comparisons to July estimates, and only compares to revenues from the same month in the prior year treasury collections (+$46.3 million), as the general fund balance and interest rates remain at historically high levels. Monthly Revenue Update July 2023 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 2 |
MRU_2020_11.pdfmillion (51.1 percent), due to higher than expected other miscellaneous collections ($93.7 million). The IFO will release an updated estimate and monthly distributions consistent with the passage of the remaining portion of the FY 2020-21 budget in January 2021. Monthly Revenue Update November 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 2 |
MRU-2020-12.pdfestimate by $451.5 million, almost entirely due to one-time transfers ($434.4 million). The IFO will release an updated estimate and monthly distributions consistent with the passage of the remaining portion of the FY 2020-21 budget in January 2021. Monthly Revenue Update December 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 2 |
MRU-2020-09.pdfof its regular five-year economic and budget outlook in mid-November. In its place, the office will release an updated economic and revenue forecast for FY 2020-21 at the end of October. Monthly Revenue Update September 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdfto 2019 Q4 values by 2021 Q3. These data reflect the Zillow forecast as of May 12, but Zillow may update the forecast in the future when more data become available. Monthly Economic Update May 2020 Monthly Data Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Unemployment Rate 1 4.7% 4 Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdfJune Inflation Decelerates Rapidly This update uses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All effects that will likely fade as energy price comparisons to the prior year show a less dramatic decline. Monthly Economic Update July 2023 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 All Items 2.1% 0.1% Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdftwo-thirds chance of at least a mild recession during the upcoming year. For the next several months, this economic update will use state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy is heading towards recession. Labor market data are more than a few months.” It is no longer defined as two consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction. Monthly Economic Update July 2022 Pre-COVID Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 5 19 30 20 12 11 Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdfand Accumulated Savings In late November, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified that inflation would persist longer than anticipated. This monthly update presents data for factors that drive that outcome, and the impact on national and state economic metrics. For context, the that the Federal Reserve is reconsidering its schedule for the taper of debt purchases and future interest rates. Monthly Economic Update December 2021 Levels YOY Growth Rate Item Period 2019 2020 2021 19-20 20-21 1 Philly CPI-U - All Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf53 million compared to CY 2019 ($200 million) and reach its lowest level since inception. The IFO will release an updated projection of CY 2020 collections (remitted April 2021) in late January. Monthly Economic Update December 2020 Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Unemployment Rate 1 10.4% 8 Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdfHousing Costs Apply Pressure to Overall Inflation This update uses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All Items CPI-U growth will likely accelerate from June (3.1%). Those data will be released September 13. Monthly Economic Update August 2023 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 All Items 2.2% 0.3% Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdfin 2020. Later this month, the IFO will release its Natural Gas Production Report for 2021 Q2, which will provide updates on production, drilling and price trends for April to June 2021. Monthly Economic Update August 2021 Monthly Data Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.3% 7 Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdfhouseholds to pay down their debt. Number of Small Businesses Open and Revenues Decline from July Peak Opportunity Insights released updated data for the number of small businesses open and small business revenues, as compared to January 2020. Small businesses open 9, 2020. Similar to the U.S., small business activity in Pennsylvania has generally deteriorated since July 1. Monthly Economic Update August 2020 Monthly Data Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Unemployment Rate 1 16.1% 13 Hits: 2 |
MidYear_PublicBriefing_Jan2018.pdfRoom 105, Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market St, Harrisburg The Independent Fiscal Office will release a mid-year update for General Fund revenues for FY 2017-18. The presentation will also include a discussion of the impact of federal changes on the state economy and tax revenues and a preliminary revenue outlook for FY 2018-19. Mid-Year Revenue Update www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO PUBLIC BRIEFING CreationDate: 2018-01-17 19:36:46 Creator: Canva Keywords: DACT5o1_Ye4 ModDate Hits: 2 |
Labor_Market_Update_Sept_2021.pdfNo Job Gains in August as Federal UC Benefits Neared Expiration This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce extra federal UC benefits, the monthly data will provide important insights into the state of the Pennsylvania economy. Labor Market Update September 2021 June July August June July August Total Payroll Employment -389.1 -358.3 -362.0 28.5 -11 Hits: 2 |
Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdfPennsylvania Job Gains Remain in Holding Pattern This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may seek to re-enter 5,150 through the end of the program while the average traditional UC recipient may claim $6,500. Labor Market Update June 23, 2021 Mar Apr May Mar Apr May Total Employment -431.5 -446.9 -432.7 39.2 49 Hits: 2 |
Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdfPennsylvania Payroll Jobs Record Strong Gains in June This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers who may re-enter the workforce issue will likely moderate as federal benefits approach expiration and former childcare workers return to the labor market. Labor Market Update July 2021 Apr May Jun Apr May Jun Total Employment -446.9 -432.3 -394.5 49.0 44.8 Hits: 2 |
Kling_Presentation.pdf15, 2018 Jeffrey Kling Associate Director for Economic Analysis Transparency at CBO For more information, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update on Transparency at CBO (August 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/54372. 1 CBO Enhance the credibility of its work of some of its major models and more detailed information, including computer code, about key aspects of those models Update its template for cost estimates to make important information easier to find and read Continue to evaluate previous estimates Hits: 2 |
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf3.84 billion transfer to General Fund from federal funds in FY 21-22). May revenues are estimated. General Fund Update for FY 2022-23 May 24, 2023 11 IFO Official Estimate (June 2022) May 2023 Update Amount Growth Adjusted Amount $ Change Adjusted General Fund Revenues $42,187 -12.4% -3.1% $44,710 $2,523 +2 Hits: 2 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf3.84 billion transfer to General Fund from federal funds in FY 21-22). May revenues are estimated. General Fund Update for FY 2022-23 May 24, 2023 11 IFO Official Estimate (June 2022) May 2023 Update Amount Growth Adjusted Amount $ Change Adjusted General Fund Revenues $42,187 -12.4% -3.1% $44,710 $2,523 +2 Hits: 2 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdfIFO Public Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the link above to receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. www.ifo.state.pa.us Updated Revenue Estimates CreationDate: 2020-05-18 18:55:41 Creator: Canva Keywords: "DAD7-QycXRw,BACEQ8zYs40" ModDate: 2020-05-19 12 Hits: 2 |
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2022.pdfIFO Public Presentation The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2021-22 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. The presentation will review and the link above to receive an invitation to the presentation, which will be held virtually. www.ifo.state.pa.us Updated Revenue Estimates CreationDate: 2022-05-13 19:19:08 Creator: Canva Keywords: DAFAgdtrRz8,BAE9-b1inXk ModDate: 2022-05-16 12 Hits: 2 |
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdfIFO PUBLIC BRIEFING Updated Revenue Estimates Date: Wednesday, May 26 Time: 1:00 PM R SVP Here Please register at the link above to receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. The briefing is open to Hits: 2 |
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdfrecent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Revenue Update Through January, the IFO revenue estimate is holding up well, and actual revenues are up roughly $190 million over estimate overage is roughly $40 million, and it is largely attributable to inheritance tax ($30 million). At our mid-year revenue update (January 2018), we added $35 million to our official revenue estimate originally released June 2017. For this fiscal year, we Hits: 2 |
IFO_Public_Briefing_May_2018_19.pdf00 PM Location: Room 105, Rachel Carson State Office Building, 400 Market Street, Harrisburg The Independent Fiscal Office will release updated revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2017-18 and 2018-19. The session is open to the public. The report will be posted to the office website at the start of the briefing. Updated Revenue Estimates www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO Public Briefing CreationDate: 2018-04-24 13:11:48 Creator: Canva Keywords Hits: 2 |
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdfOffice (IFO). Who we are. What we do. Official Revenue Estimate. Other analyses. Brief Economic Update. What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept IFO combines two federal 9 2012 GPNP Conference Other Reports and Analysis Office will be posting regular reports and analysis. Monthly Economic Update (later this month). Legislative Requests: Property Tax Proposals (late September). Interstate comparison of tax structures and tax burdens Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdfher bachelor’s degree in political science and international service from American University. November 15, 2021 2 Key Themes Demographics updated for the Decennial Census ▪ Little change | potential workforce still contracts ▪ COVID: ~30,000 excess deaths in 2020 + 2021 | small baby job loss remains ~350k No further COVID variants that warrant mitigation efforts November 15, 2021 4 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update November 15, 2021 5 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-20 20-30 Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfprojections made in the early months of the pandemic. Including statutory changes enacted with the state budget in November, the updated forecast used by this report reflects an increase of $2.56 billion over the IFO’s Official Revenue Estimate released approximate $1.0 billion structural deficit by the end of that five-year forecast window (FY 2024-25). For this update, the long-term structural deficit increases by another $1.0 billion from (1) lower revenues due to lost economic growth Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdfoffset the loss of $1.9 billion in one-time nontax revenues received in the prior year. The updated forecast used by this report reflects an increase of $200 million over the IFO’s official revenue estimate released in July 2019 ratings are determined by a rating agency prior to the issuance of a bond and can also be updated period- ically via public release. Fiscal Year 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 Projected Hits: 2 |
EPLC_April_2024.pdfKaren Maynard, Fiscal Analyst III Matthew Knittel, Director Economic & Budget Update Education Policy and Leadership Center April 5, 2024 April 5, 2024 About the Independent Fiscal Office Most states have a Governor’s Executive Budget 2024-25, page 4. • Nov 15: 5-Year Economic & Budget Outlook • Jan 31: Mid-Year Revenue Update • Mar/Apr: Analysis of Executive Budget Revenue Proposals • May 20: Preliminary Revenue Estimate • June 20: Final Revenue Estimate Education Policy Hits: 2 |
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdfECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 4, 2022 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September sales tax? ▪ Tax burden rankings: how does PA compare to border states? March 4, 2022 3 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update March 4, 2022 4 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-20 20-30 Hits: 2 |
Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdfFiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. This is an update of a research brief published by the IFO in September 2021 and incorporates the latest data published by the U Total consumption includes 2020 amounts for direct use and line losses, which are not yet available for 2021. Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Pennsylvania plants that use natural gas increased from Hits: 2 |
Electricity_Update_2024.pdfThis update displays recent trends for the Pennsylvania and regional electricity markets. The latest data show that Pennsylvania remained the top electricity state. (As defined by the EIA, net exports equal net generation less sales, direct use and line losses.) Pennsylvania Electricity Update State 2018 2023 Change Top 5 Pennsylvania 52 83 58.6% Alabama 45 45 0.9 Illinois 33 36 8 Hits: 2 |
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdfrevenues. This calculation suggests that school district property taxes account for approximately 70% of statewide property taxes. This research brief updates a previous analysis published in April 2020 that used data from CY 2018. The prior analysis used income and property tax data from the American Community Survey compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and applied to homeowners only. This update uses income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Internal Revenue Service. The property tax data are from PDE Hits: 2 |
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdfyear. • Quarterly Revenue Review. Published after each quarter to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates to actual revenues. • Mid-Year Update. Published in January. Revised revenue estimate for the current year based on actual collections for the first half of the Use 2.3% 5.5% Personal Income 2.7% 3.3% FY 2013-14 IFO Official Revenue Estimate – Mid-Year Update ($ millions) Revenue Source Estimate Revision Revised Estimate Revised Fiscal Year Growth Revised 2 nd Half Growth General Fund - Total -$150 Hits: 2 |
Testimony-02-2020.pdfPA Economic Update Testimony for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | February 18, 2020 Annual Growth Rate or Hits: 1 |
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdfstate tax credit programs. Recommendations were also made to limit eligibility to small businesses, stream- line the geographic designations and update reporting requirements. State of Oklahoma Incentive Evaluation Commission: Investment/New Jobs Tax Credit Eval- uation (2018) 9 The Oklahoma Incentive Hits: 1 |
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdfgap between traditional housing programs and commercial lending 4 See Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit Bid Criteria for the latest updates. https://www.phfa.org/forms/mudtc/2021_MUD_Bid_Criteria.pdf. 5 Applicants must also be in good standing with all PHFA programs Hits: 1 |
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdfit applied. Applications for renewal may be submitted for subsequent fiscal years beginning November 1. If after the submission of updated data DCED determines that the organization continues to comply with the require- ments of the program, then the organization will Hits: 1 |
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdfwas notified of a new recipient (two total) of the KSDZ Tax Credit. As a result, this analysis has been updated to include historical data, an economic impact analysis and revised recommendations. Pennsylvania is one of 11 states that offer a Hits: 1 |
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdfa database to monitor firms suspected of fraudulent or questionable RDTC sales. Additional training for staff and updated protocols to improve interactions with tax credit applicants. Reorganization of DOR staff, which will help create a standardized training plan that Hits: 1 |
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdfmonitor firms suspected of fraudulent or questionable R&D tax credit sales. Additional training for staff and updated protocols to improve interactions with tax credit applicants. Reorganization of DOR staff, which will help create a standardized training plan that Hits: 1 |
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfAbout half of the existing job creation programs began in the 1990’s, but have been periodically revised, updated and rebranded consistent with shifting state priorities (and administrations). Table 5 provides key characteristics for the 25 states that currently have a Hits: 1 |
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdfin each summary was accurate as of the date the original report was issued. No effort has been made to update previously published information. For convenience, the year the report was issued is reflected at the top of each page. ▪ Changes Hits: 1 |
SR2017-06.pdfto certain data for Beaver, Centre and Washington Counties. B Data supplied by the county assessment office and supplemented by updated taxable assessed value data from the State Tax Equalization Board. Philadelphia data were adjusted based on information provided by the Hits: 1 |
SR2014-03-presentation.pdfPrimary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January. Office does not make policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014 2 Independent Fiscal Office Scope and assumptions. Potential Hits: 1 |
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdfhas issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data Hits: 1 |
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdfIFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data Hits: 1 |
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdffunding increases assumed permanent (e.g., education) ▪ Federal COVID relief/enhanced FMAP (6.2%) ends in FY 22-23 (assumed) ▪ UPDATE: 6.2% (through March) | 5.0% (June) | 2.5% (September) | 1.5% (December) January 24, 2023 1 PA Long-Term Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdfCBO). “The Effects on Employment and Family Income of increasing the Federal Mini- mum Wage,” page 25 (July 2019). An updated analysis in February 2021 found similar results. In both studies, CBO found roughly a 7% reduction in directly affected workers Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdfbut higher wages May 26, 2021 12 FY 2020-21 Revised Estimate May 26, 2021 13 Revised Official Dollar Change Updated Estimate Payment Shifts Adjusted Growth General Fund $38,437 $1,674 $40,111 $1,978 9.4% Corporate Net Income Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdfto director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 4th, and the official estimate provides updates for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15 and FY 2015-16. FY 2014-15 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdfto director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an initial revenue estimate at the beginning of May and an updated revenue estimate by mid- June. FY 2014-15 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to be $30.55 billion, $594 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdfrespectively. The two-year total is $95 million less than the earlier projections. The reductions are largely the result of updated economic assumptions, a lower estimate for small games of chance tax revenues and new information on the timing of potential Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdfto director Matthew Knittel. The IFO’s initial revenue estimate was released on May 1, and the official estimate provides updates for fiscal year (FY) 2013-14 and FY 2014-15. FY 2013-14 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to Hits: 1 |
REU-2020-02.pdf7 million (29.5 percent) above estimate. The overage is driven by stronger than expected escheats revenues. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | February 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Hits: 1 |
REU-2020-01.pdfThis overage is partially offset by the lower than projected licenses and fees revenues (-$17.4 million). Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | January 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Hits: 1 |
REU-2019-12.pdfrevenues exceed estimate by $61.7 million. The overage is driven by escheat revenues ($87.8 million). Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | December 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Hits: 1 |
REU-2019-11.pdfin licenses and fees is a timing issue related to the payment of fees for gaming licenses. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | November 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Hits: 1 |
REU-2019-10.pdfof this gain is offset by licenses and fees collections which are $20.2 million under estimate. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | October 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through October October Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Hits: 1 |
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdfPlease note the following: The estimates utilize the latest revenue forecast released by the IFO (June 21, 2019 and updated to reflect statutory changes that were enacted with the fiscal year 2019-20 state budget). They should be viewed as Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_06_Sources_PA_Income.pdftax credits, computed poverty rates will be overstated. The U.S. Census is aware of the understatement and makes periodic updates to improve the survey. 2 The distribution 1 See Poverty in States and Metropolitan Areas 2022 . 2 For example, see Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdfat that rate or below would likely not have had a material impact on labor market conditions. 1 The next update (data for May 2023) will be published in April 2024. 2 Although New York’s lowest-paid cashiers and retail Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_12_Gasoline_Consumption_Remains_Subdued.pdfThis research brief updates one published in January 2023 to include an additional 11 months of gasoline consumption and retail price data. More than Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdfterm, and then revert to the Federal Reserve target of 2.0% sometime in 2024. This research brief provides an update to an IFO analysis from October 2021 using recent hourly earnings and CPI data to quantify how unusually high inflation Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_06_Jackpot_Lottery.pdf12, 2023. 5 Includes current available appropriations and executive authorizations for FY 2022-23 detailed on the Lottery Fund Spring Update, May 2023. CreationDate: 2023-06-13 17:53:25 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2023-06-13 Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdfNew Jersey and New York. -26 -41 -25 +81 +21 -23 -13 2022 Net Exports (million megawatt hours) Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 +81 +21 -48 -23 -26 -25 -13 % Export State 2018 2022 Change Share Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdfThis research brief updates an original release in July 2022 to show data for two more recent months (job openings, jobs, unemployment rates and Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdfand 2021. It is noted that these results are subject to revision as additional data are released. The IFO will update this analysis when full data for calendar year 2021 become available. Table 1 displays final Pennsylvania death data prior to Hits: 1 |
RB-2018-01.pdfOffice (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative and public interest. This analysis provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data Hits: 1 |
QRE_FY14-15.pdfFY 2014-15 General Fund Revenue Projection ($ millions) Revenue Source June 16 Projection 1 Adjustments for Statutory Changes Updated Projection Tax Revenue $28,882.9 $40.0 $28,922.9 Non-tax Revenue 562.6 471.6 1,034.2 Total Hits: 1 |
PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdfMarch 13, 2020 Property Tax Update Pennsylvania School Boards Association March 13, 2020 School District Revenues: FY 2017-18 March 13, 2020 2 Source Amount Percent Hits: 1 |
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdfdemographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $1.71 billion in the Hits: 1 |
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdfdemographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of up to $0.99 billion in the Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdfPennsylvania Business Council June 22, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Matthew Knittel, Director Budget and Revenue Update Calendar Years, Annual Growth Rates 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real State GDP 1.1% 0.7% 1.5% Hits: 1 |
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdfPersonal income tax decreased by $113 million. • Other sources, including sales tax, increased by $22 million. The next revenue update will be on June 15 th . • More recent data on corporate profits suggest weakness. • Wage/salary withholding collections have underperformed Hits: 1 |
PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdfState Pension System Update PICPA Not-for-Profit and Gov’t Accounting Conference Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office July 13, 2021 State Pension Hits: 1 |
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdfBudget and Economic Update Presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office June 11, 2019 Main Hits: 1 |
PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdfNovember Economic and Revenue Update PICA Fall Conference 2020 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 18, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data November 18 Hits: 1 |
perez ppt.pdfState Budget Update Arturo Pérez NCSL Fiscal Affairs Program Director Overview – State fiscal conditions continue to improve, but at a very slow pace Hits: 1 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdfPBB Addendums Updated Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Review Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board September 28, 2021 PBB Addendum Requests Hits: 1 |
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdfSCA fiscal, administrative and programmatic requirements to ensure compliance with grant agreements, including state and federal laws. Support functions include updates to manuals, policy clarifications and public assistance with questions regarding treatment and other recovery support resources. DDAP funding supports treatment Hits: 1 |
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdfcertifies third party contractors who conduct the majority of elevator and boiler in- spections statewide. The Administrative Code of 2017 updated the bureau’s fee schedule and funding mechanism. The depart- ment receives a $10 million augmentation sourced from bureau fee Hits: 1 |
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfCOVID-19 pandemic likely has significant and long-term implications for agency funding and operations. For its October 2020 revenue update, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) estimated that gasoline consumption in Pennsylvania declined by roughly 10 percent due to greater telecommuting Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdfThe bureau also manages the Statewide Uniform Registry of Electors (SURE) to allow voters to apply for or update their voter registration, support county election offices’ voter list maintenance efforts and support military and overseas civilians with absentee ballot re- quests Hits: 1 |
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdfEconomic and Revenue Update PACP Chamber Day 2021 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office June 17, 2021 Three Issues Dominate Economic and Budget Outlook Hits: 1 |
PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdfDecember Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director December 9, 2020 PA Economic Forecast and Latest Quarterly Data December Hits: 1 |
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf0 ECONOMIC and ACT 1 INDEX UPDATE 68 TH PASBO Annual Conference & Exhibits Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 16, 2023 Good Morning and a Quick Overview I PA Hits: 1 |
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdfworkers” forecast is used for ECI Usually a high correlation with the elementary-secondary school ECI IFO plans to update and re-release projection in fall Good estimate for 2021 wage growth at that time March 17, 2021 Questions Hits: 1 |
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdfAugust Economic and Revenue Update Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers Matthew Knittel, IFO Director August 25, 2021 Latest Quarterly PA Economic Data August 25, 2021 Hits: 1 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdfand the jackpots appear larger given the same cash value. 13 The transfer amount is from the Lottery Fund Spring Update provided by the Budget Office in May 2023. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Revenue $1,709 $1 Hits: 1 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdfThe transfer amount is from the Lottery Fund Projection Model provided by the Budget Office on May 17, 2022 (Spring Update). 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Revenue $1,854 $1,709 $1,789 $1,931 $1,948 $2 Hits: 1 |
NGIFE-2015.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐1 February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐3, which reported unconventional gas well impact Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_March_2020.pdfhours for some employees. 2019 Employment Data Revised Upward On March 16, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released updated payroll employment data for states and met- ropolitan areas. The revision increased average Pennsylvania payroll employment by 15,900 jobs Hits: 1 |
NewsStand_2019_December.pdfbelow $3.00, then Impact Fee collections would decline by $37 million compared to 2018. The IFO will release an updated projection of 2019 collections in late January. Metro Unemployment Rates A recent brief by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_October.pdfby 5.5% in First Half of CY 2018 On September 27, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released updated figures for non-financial (excludes banks) domestic profits of U.S. corporations. The preliminary data show that profits grew by Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_December.pdfthe price fell below that threshold, then impact fee collections would decline by $45 million. The IFO will release an updated impact fee forecast for CY 2018 (remitted April 2019) in late January 2019. Home Price Growth Slows in 2018 Q3 Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_April.pdfand general economic development. (Full Article) -April 2018 - Congressional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028 The CBO updated its deficit projections from the previous release in June 2017 to show substantial growth in fed- eral debt levels over Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-09.pdfcollection month is December, when the fourth CNIT estimated payment for tax year 2019 will be received. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | September 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-08.pdfis related to a gaming license fee that was anticipated in July 2019 but received in June. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | August 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-07.pdf84.3 percent), due to a one-time payment of $30.4 million received in July 2018. Revenue and Economic Update Independent Fiscal Office | July 2019 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-11.pdfof FY 2017-18 should become more clear once those payments have been remitted. In December, the IFO will release updated monthly projections for FY 2017-18 that reflect the impact of recently enacted legislation. 2 The legislation was enacted as Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-10.pdfor uncertainty remains, then General Fund revenue projections for this year will likely be revised downward in future estimates. Revenue Update for FY 2017-18 General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Oct-17 $2,175 $2,160 Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-09.pdfyear-over- year growth rate for the General Fund was 4.8 percent, with CNIT revenues showing robust growth. Revenue Update for FY 2017-18 Q1 Gˎ˗ˎ˛ˊ˕ F˞˗ˍ S˗ˊ˙˜ˑ˘˝ General Fund Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Sep-17 $2,719 Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-07.pdfIn June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updated the Quarterly State Personal Income series for the first quarter of 2017. The data include personal income and its components Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-04.pdfModDate: 2016-05-03 12:44:34 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.15 (Windows) Title: MTR-2016-4 v11, data updated next day Hits: 1 |
MSC_March_31_2021.pdfBudget and Economic Update Marcellus Shale Coalition March 31, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits Hits: 1 |
MRU_2024_3.pdfabove estimate. ▪ March insurance premiums tax collections of $795 million were $39 million (+5.1%) higher than expected. Monthly Revenue Update March 2024 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through March March Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2024_2.pdfmillion below estimate (-34.3%). This shortfall is likely a temporary timing issue that will reverse in March. Monthly Revenue Update February 2024 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2024_1.pdfof $114.0 million (+$81.5 million, +250.8%) included $59.0 million in unusual one-time earnings. Monthly Revenue Update January 2024 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2024_09.pdfhigher than the prior year. FYTD revenues of $116 million are $25 million (+27.9%) higher than expected. Monthly Revenue Update September 2024 FY 2024-25 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2024_08.pdfmillion (+74.6%) due to the posting of $38 million in interest earnings associated with tobacco settlement funds. Monthly Revenue Update August 2024 FY 2024-25 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2024_06.pdftax collections were boosted by continued stock market gains and rapid home price appreciation throughout the fiscal year. Monthly Revenue Update June 2024 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through June June Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2024_05.pdfby $20 million (+48.5%). FYTD revenues of $710 million are $265 million (+59.5%) higher than expected. Monthly Revenue Update May 2024 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through May May Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2024_04.pdfmillion) exceeded estimate by $68 million (+26.1%). FYTD revenues are $115 million (+56.2%) higher than expected. Monthly Revenue Update April 2024 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through April April Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_12.pdfGeneral Fund balance and elevated interest rates, coming in at $20.4 million (+62.0%) more than anticipated. Monthly Revenue Update December 2023 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_11.pdfstrong at $27.6 million (+83.8%) more than anticipated. § Escheats collections outperformed estimate by $16.8 million. Monthly Revenue Update November 2023 FY 2023 -24 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_10.pdfby $23.7 million (+66.0%). ▪ Escheats collections fell short of estimate by $20.1 million (-261.5%). Monthly Revenue Update October 2023 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through October October Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_09.pdfestimate. ▪ Treasury collections of $68.0 million for the month outperformed expectations by $21.6 million (+46.7%). Monthly Revenue Update September 2023 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_08.pdf8.8 million, -10.2%). ▪ Inheritance tax (+$17.3 million) and treasury (+$16.9 million) collections outperformed expectations. Monthly Revenue Update August 2023 FY 2023-24 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections FY Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff General Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_06.pdf4 million (49.3%) above estimate. The entire overage was the result of Treasury collections (+$435.7 million). Monthly Revenue Update June 2023 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through June June Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_05.pdf1 million) collections. FYTD non-tax revenues are $1.07 billion, $331.5 million (45.0%) above estimate. Monthly Revenue Update May 2023 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through May May Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2023_02.pdftreasury collections (+$227.5 million), and are partially offset by lower than anticipated escheat collections (-$69.0 million). Monthly Revenue Update February 2023 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2022_12.pdfcollections for the fiscal year exceed estimate due to unusually high General Fund balances and rising interest rates. Monthly Revenue Update December 2022 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2022_04.pdf3%), other miscellaneous (+$24.3 million, 0.6%) and licenses and fees (+$19.5 million, 14.1%) collections. Monthly Revenue Update April 2022 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through April April Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2022_03.pdfto escheats (+$65.7 million), other miscellaneous (+$27.7 million) and licenses and fees (+$14.1 million) collections. Monthly Revenue Update March 2022 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through March March Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2022_02.pdfto escheats (+$29.5 million), other miscellaneous (+$25.0 million) and licenses and fees (+$21.6 million) collections. Monthly Revenue Update February 2022 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_11.pdfto escheats (+$27.4 million), other miscellaneous (+$25.9 million) and licenses and fees (+$9.6 million) collections. Monthly Revenue Update November 2021 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_10.pdfa transfer from the Insurance Regulation Oversight Fund ($13.5 million), which had not occurred in recent years. Monthly Revenue Update October 2021 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through October October Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_09.pdfto other miscellaneous (+$18.2 million), escheats (+$12.7 million) and licenses and fees (+$9.1 million) revenues. Monthly Revenue Update September 2021 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_08.pdftax collections exceed estimate by $10.0 million (27.2%) due to other miscellaneous revenues (+$15.8 million). Monthly Revenue Update August 2021 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_07.pdf17.9 million above the prior year, while licenses and fees declined by $5.2 million (-33.6%). Monthly Revenue Update July 2021 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_05.pdfoffset that surplus (-$16.6 million). FYTD non-tax revenues exceed estimate by $45.4 million (4.3%). Monthly Revenue Update May 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through May May Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_04.pdf38.3 million (3.8%), primarily due to higher than expected escheats collections (+$41.6 million, 23.5%). Monthly Revenue Update April 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through April April Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_03.pdfnon-tax revenues are $825.3 million and surpass the estimate by 4.7 percent (+$37.3 million). Monthly Revenue Update March 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through March March Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_02.pdfpercent). FYTD non-tax revenues are $706.5 million, or $9.8 million (1.4 percent) above estimate. Monthly Revenue Update February 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through February February Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU_2021_01.pdfnegative posting that occurred in November 2020 related to repayment of loan principal under the PA First program. Monthly Revenue Update January 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2023-04.pdfstronger than expected treasury collections (+$317.2 million) offset by a shortfall in escheats collections (-$29.8 million). Monthly Revenue Update April 2023 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through April April Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2023-03.pdftreasury collections (+$269.3 million), and are partially offset by lower than anticipated escheat collections (-$53.8 million). Monthly Revenue Update March 2023 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through March March Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2023-01.pdftreasury collections (+$190.0 million), and are partially offset by lower than anticipated escheat collections (-$61.9 million). Monthly Revenue Update January 2023 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2022-11.pdffor the fiscal year are exceeding estimate due to unusually high General Fund balances and rising interest rates. Monthly Revenue Update November 2022 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through November November Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2022-10.pdf13.7 million); licenses and fees (-$4.7 million) and fines, penalties and interest (-$2.2 million) collections. Monthly Revenue Update October 2022 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through October October Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2022-09.pdfrevenues are over estimate by $56.9 million, also largely the result of treasury collections (+$62.0 million). Monthly Revenue Update September 2022 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through September September Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2022-08.pdfestimate by $39.8 million due to treasury (+$34.3 million) and other miscellaneous (+$9.7 million) collections. Monthly Revenue Update August 2022 FY 2022 -23 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2022-07.pdfmillion (49.7%) increase from the prior year due to an increase in treasury collections (+$14.6 million). Monthly Revenue Update July 2022 FY 2022-23 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2022-06.pdfmainly due to escheats (+$45.5 million), other miscellaneous (+$28.1 million) and treasury (+$11.1 million) collections. Monthly Revenue Update June 2022 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through June June Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2022-05.pdfdue mainly to escheats (+$35.8 million, 15.4%) and other miscellaneous (+$25.9 million, 0.7%) collections. Monthly Revenue Update May 2022 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through May May Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2022-01.pdfto escheats (+$28.1 million), other miscellaneous (+$23.8 million) and licenses and fees (+$21.6 million) collections. Monthly Revenue Update January 2022 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2021-12.pdfto escheats (+$29.6 million), other miscellaneous (+$27.2 million) and licenses and fees (+$10.7 million) collections. Monthly Revenue Update December 2021 FY 2021-22 Revenue Performance Through December December Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2021-06.pdfFY 2021-22 budget. Non-tax revenues for the fiscal year essentially met estimate at $1.21 billion. Monthly Revenue Update June 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through June June Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2020-10.pdfby $7.5 million (9.5 percent), due entirely to higher than expected escheats collections (+$19.0 million). Monthly Revenue Update October 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through October October Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2020-08.pdfoverage in licenses and fees ($9.5 million) more than offset by shortfalls in the other revenue categories. Monthly Revenue Update August 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through August August Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2020-07.pdfis likely the result of the continued effects of COVID-19 mitigation efforts on the real estate industry. Monthly Revenue Update July 2020 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through July July Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2020-06.pdfa significant amount of delayed INH tax collections that will be remitted in FY 2020-21 ($70 million). Monthly Revenue Update June 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through June June Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate $ Diff Actual Estimate $ Diff Hits: 1 |
MRU-2020-05.pdfthe closure of county courthouses. The INH shortfall is expected to be recouped in the current fiscal year. Monthly Revenue Update May 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through May May Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate Variance Actual Estimate Variance Hits: 1 |
MRU-2020-04.pdfthe closure of county courthouses. The INH shortfall is expected to be recouped in the current fiscal year. Monthly Revenue Update April 2020 FY 2019-20 Revenue Performance Through April April Collections Fiscal Year Collections Actual Estimate Variance Actual Estimate Variance Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdfof the national eviction moratorium on August 26, 2021 could have implications for rental prices in future months. Monthly Economic Update September 2021 CPI-U Year-Over-Year Change Feb Apr Jun Aug Weight All Items 1.0% 3.5% 4 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdffor used cars, growth in U.S. new car prices has been modest (0.7%, year-over-year). Monthly Economic Update September 2020 Monthly Data May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Unemployment Rate 1 13.4% 13 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdfrelocate typically purchase goods such as appliances and furniture, or make specific upgrades (e.g., kitchens and bathrooms). Monthly Economic Update October 2023 Homes Listed Homes Sold Sales Price U.S. Avg. 30-Yr Rate Realty Transfer Tax 2022 Q1 96 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdfarticle notes that renter evictions could still surge but might be delayed due to backlogs at some courts. Monthly Economic Update October 2021 Note: Orange line reflects Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth for Rent of Primary Residence from the U.S Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdfwhile the government and education sectors reported accelerating losses which coincides with the start of the school year. Monthly Economic Update October 2020 Monthly Data Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Unemployment Rate 1 13.2% 12 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdfthese trends will impact the full holiday shopping season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday online sales were strong. Monthly Economic Update November 2023 Year-Over-Year (YOY) Growth Rates for Pennsylvania Debt Balances by Type Note: 2023 is the YOY growth Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf5.6%.) The Philadelphia CPI less Shelter growth rate is the highest rate for that series since 1980. Monthly Economic Update November 2021 Monthly Data Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sept-21 Oct-21 Unemployment Rate 1 6.9% 6 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdfmultifamily rents fell 0.3% over the prior year according to the September 2020 Multi-Housing News report. Monthly Economic Update November 2020 Monthly Data Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Unemployment Rate 1 12.5% 10 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdflag other CPI components, it is less likely that metro inflation will also decelerate in the near term. Monthly Economic Update May 2022 -0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdfand require supervision. Currently, Pennsylvania does not require individuals who receive benefits to demonstrate an active job search. Monthly Economic Update May 2021 Monthly Data Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.1% 7 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdfcontinue recent strong gains due to higher labor and input (e.g., fertilizer) costs and supply chain disruptions. Monthly Economic Update March 2022 Contributions to Philadelphia CPI-U Growth -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdfbusiness services (+12,100, +1.6%), retail trade (+5,600, +1.0%) and arts-entertainment (+500, +0.8%). Monthly Economic Update March 2021 Monthly Data Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.0% 7 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdfa notably higher share of their spending to gasoline and away from taxable and non-taxable discretionary purchases. Monthly Economic Update June 2022 Central Atlantic Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Prices Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. $1.00 $2.00 $3 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdfstudents and not typically primary earners in their households, which may explain the lower share of UC claims. Monthly Economic Update June 2021 14-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Male Female White Black Asian Other Job Loss (000s) -170 -205 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdfconsumer spending remains below prior year levels, recent patterns suggest a V-shaped recovery in the near term. Monthly Economic Update June 2020 Monthly Data Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Unemployment Rate 1 4.7% 5 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdfTherefore, the data should not be used to infer that income migrated in or out of the state. Monthly Economic Update July 2021 Monthly Data Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.4% 7 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdfJune, ranging from a high of 17.4% in Massachusetts to a low of 4.3% in Kentucky. Monthly Economic Update July 2020 Monthly Data Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Unemployment Rate 1 5.8% 16 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdfwill continue until these excess savings are reduced further or higher interest rates begin to restrain economic growth. Monthly Economic Update January 2022 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdffood and energy are excluded, then average price levels increased by 1.2% relative to the prior year. Monthly Economic Update January 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdfand the impact of Federal Reserve actions to slow growth of the money supply and raise interest rates. Monthly Economic Update February 2022 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Nominal Avg Hourly Earnings 4.2% 5.1% 6.1% 4.8% 5 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdfDecember 2020 analysis from mortgage-data firm Black Knight, an increase of 35.1% over the prior year. Monthly Economic Update February 2021 Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Unemployment Rate 1 8.3% 7 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdfanalysts project a “growth recession,” where the economy does not contract, but expands only at a modest rate. Monthly Economic Update April 2022 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2019.1 2019.3 2020.1 2020.3 2021.1 2021.3 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdfthose factors. For the Pennsylvania economy, productivity gains will be a critical factor to the long-term outlook. Monthly Economic Update April 2021 Monthly Data Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Unemployment Rate 1 7.1% 7 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdfmonthly decline (-54%). Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, March consumer prices declined 0.1% from February. Monthly Economic Update April 2020 Monthly Data Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Unemployment Rate 1 4.6% 4 Hits: 1 |
mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Revised Revenue Estimate for FY 2014-15 (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel released a mid-year update of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2014-15. The revised estimate is $30.207 Hits: 1 |
Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdfDemographic and Labor Market Update Lancaster Chamber of Commerce Matthew Knittel, IFO Director October 6, 2021 Pennsylvania Demographics October 6, 2021 1 Age Cohort Number Hits: 1 |
Labor_Market_Update_October_2021.pdfthe overall labor force participation rate declined from 61.5% to 61.0% despite strong demand for workers. Labor Market Update October 2021 July August Sept July August Sept Total Payroll Employment -358.3 -365.5 -384.8 -11.6 -3 Hits: 1 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_May_2023.pdfIFO Public Presentation The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2022-23 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. The presentation will cover recent Hits: 1 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Announcement_2024.pdfIFO Public Presentation The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2023-24 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2024-25. The presentation will cover recent Hits: 1 |
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdfto director Matthew Knittel. By statute, the office issues an initial revenue estimate at the beginning of May and an updated revenue estimate by mid- June. FY 2016-17 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to be $31.82 billion, $695 Hits: 1 |
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdfFirst PIT estimated payment very weak (-5%). March-April CNIT estimated payments up +13%. Recapitulation 21 02.May.2017 Updated Estimate Mid-June Presentation to be Posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Questions/Discussion 22 02.May Hits: 1 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdfApril and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. Table 1: Impact Fee Revenue and Distributions Impact Fee Revenue Update and Outlook Independent Fiscal Office | June 2024 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not Hits: 1 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdfand Distributions Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Impact Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price Hits: 1 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdfyear 11 and paid half the fee amount paid in operating year 10. Estimated impact: -$11.6 million. Impact Fee Update and Outlook 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Distributions $251.8 $200.4 $146.3 $234.4 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Hits: 1 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdfin thousands. Fees are remitted in the following April and distributed in July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. Impact Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JUNE 2021 PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to Hits: 1 |
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdfDistributions in 2018 include $5.0 million in fees attributable to 2016 and 2017 that were remitted late. Impact Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price Hits: 1 |
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office June 2019 1 Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled Hits: 1 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office June 2018 1 Impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled Hits: 1 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice July 2017 1 Research Brief 2017‐3 July 2017 Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled Hits: 1 |
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdfWorkers 177 147 -30 Directly Affected by $12 Minimum Wage 119 105 -14 Note: Excludes self-employed. Data will be updated in IFO's Analysis of Revenue Proposals in Spring 2021. Source: Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), 2019. PA Worker Distribution by Hits: 1 |
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdfGeneral Fund Revenue Estimate FY 2013-14 Mid-Year Update Independent Fiscal Office January 23, 2014 At the beginning of the fiscal year, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) forecasted FY Hits: 1 |
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdfWing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Ryan: On April 12, 2022, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provided updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. This letter responds to your April 20 request Hits: 1 |
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdf2024 This document outlines the Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) policies for pension analysis. These policies will be effective unless updated and reissued. A link to the relevant statute that confers pension review duties to the IFO can be found at Hits: 1 |
IFO_PASBO_Oct_2024.pdfJesse Bushman, Fiscal Analyst III Economic and Property Tax Update October 8, 2024 Today’s Presentation Presentation runs ~25 minutes • Posted to IFO website at end • Will answer questions at Hits: 1 |
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdfbalance using temporary one-time measures, the underlying structural imbalance remains and is carried forward into future years,” Knittel said. Updated revenue and expenditure estimates suggest policymakers could face a potential budget imbalance of $409 million in the current fiscal year Hits: 1 |
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdfa revenue gain of roughly 11 percent relative to the control states that did not enact combined reporting. The IFO updated that analysis using a more recent year of data, and the results are largely unchanged. For Pennsylvania, an 11 percent Hits: 1 |
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdfEconomic and Revenue Update Harrisburg Trade Association Executives May 15, 2019 U.S. and PA Economic Trends May 15, 2019 1 2015 2016 2017 Hits: 1 |
House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdfState Pension System Update House State Government Committee Testimony Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office August 19, 2021 Recent Legislation • Act 5 of 2017 Hits: 1 |
House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdfProperty Tax Update House Majority Policy Committee Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office August 30, 2021 School District Property Tax Forecast August 30 Hits: 1 |
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdforg/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/CA-MJ-IMPACT-REPORT-2020-FINAL-.pdf Monitoring Impacts of Recreational Marijuana Legalization, 2019 Update Report. Washington State Statistical Analysis Center (2019). https://ofm.wa.gov/sites/default/files/public/publications/marijuana_impacts_update_2019.pdf Moore, Brian Hits: 1 |
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdfmake some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based budget (PBB) plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY 2018-19 Through January, actual revenues exceed the IFO official revenue estimate by $321 million (and the Administration Hits: 1 |
Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdfPennsylvania Demographic and Economic Update Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | December 3, 2019 Number (000s) Change (000s) Average Ann Growth PA Demographic Forecast 2015 2020 Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdfdemographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Updated revenue estimates suggest policymakers could face a budget imbalance of more than $500 million in the current fiscal year. The Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdfLong-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019- Hits: 1 |
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdfReleases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Independent Fiscal Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018- Hits: 1 |
EPLC-2-19-21.pdfECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 19, 2021 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September Hits: 1 |
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdfECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 28, 2020 1 Background: Independent Fiscal Office IFO begins operations September Hits: 1 |
Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdfTotal consumption includes 2019 amounts for direct use and line losses, which are not yet available for 2020. Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 that period. For the New England states, New Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdfEconomic and Revenue Update Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office August 19, 2020 Four Things to Note Wage and Salary data are stronger than expected Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdfWorkers 177 147 -30 Directly Affected by $12 Minimum Wage 119 105 -14 Note: Excludes self-employed. Data will be updated in IFO's Analysis of Revenue Proposals in Spring 2021. Source: Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), 2019. PA Worker Distribution by Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdfof demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Phillip Swagel, Director CBO Federal Budget and Economic Update Following his presentation, Director Swagel will address questions that have been submitted. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdfOffice presents Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public Hits: 1 |
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf7% -3 -0.8% All Other 770 49 6.9% -75 -10.5% Note: millions of dollars. Slide has been updated to reflect February’s actual collections. Base amounts control for tax law changes (e.g., cigarette tax) and timing issues Hits: 1 |
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdfwww.cbo.gov/about. 2 For additional information, see www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data. CBO prepares, and periodically updates, a 10-year budget baseline that serves as a benchmark for measuring the effects of proposed legislation. The baseline reflects Hits: 1 |
CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdfBudget and Economic Update CompetePA March 11, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and next, then deficits A FY Hits: 1 |
Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdfcounties, state/county equivalents, and Puerto Rico. With each annual release of population estimates, the Population Estimates Program revises and updates the entire time series of estimates from April 1, 2020 to July 1 of the current year. Because the 2020 Hits: 1 |
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdfthinking about the revenue outlook and the economy. FY 2013-14 Revenue Outlook The IFO recently published a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for the current fiscal year and concluded that a $150 million reduction to the estimate was Hits: 1 |
Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Independent Fiscal Office to Release Revenue Projections and Conduct Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release updated revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2015- 16 and 2016-17 on Tuesday, May 3, 2016. The office will hold a Hits: 1 |
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdfPart 4 - SSD engaged a firm to do a feasibility study in 2021 and is in the process of updating by EOY 2023. Sharon City SD The ESSER funds provided much needed funding that allowed us to add staff, new curriculum Hits: 1 |
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdfBuilding Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Grove: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide updated estimates for the reduction in school property taxes due to the implementation of Act 25 of 2011. The request also Hits: 1 |
2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdfPIT is personal income tax. Revised Estimate for FY 2023-24 Slide 9 Initial Revenue Estimate Official Estimate Revised Estimate Update $ Revise YOY Grow Notes General Fund Revenues $45,201 $45,341 $140 0.9% Corporate Net Income 5,699 5 Hits: 1 |
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdfhas issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to school property taxes. The most recent school property tax data Hits: 1 |
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdfThe OA,Central Management Informa- tion Center (CMIC),will calculate the actual biweekly agency payroll costs for the REHP and update agency expenditures in the Commonwealth's Integrated Central Systems (ICS) Accounting Sys- tem. CMIC will also produce monthly annuitant medical Hits: 1 |
2004_srpvffinal.pdfFire Service in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, A Funding Study, Pennsylvania Fire and Emergency Services Institute, originally published December 1994, updated 2001. -2- 4) report the Commission’s findings and recommendations to the House of Representatives. FIRE PROTECTION SERVICE IN PENNSYLVANIA Hits: 1 |
About IFOresponsibilities include forecasting revenues for several tax sources, leading tax credit program reviews, and working on monthly economic and revenue updates. Other responsibilities include managing the office website, social media platforms and media requests. Rachel Flaugh Fiscal Analyst Ms. Flaugh joined Hits: 1 |