Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $22.0 billion in General Fund revenues (1.8%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year).
After peaking in FY2023-24 at $720 million, Treasury collections are projected to drop by $321 million (-45%) for FY2025-26 due to General Fund deficit spending and declining interest rates.
This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the Pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association (PSCOA).
The wage contract analysis was reposted on November 21, 2024 to reflect updated cost information received from the Office of Administration on November 13, 2024.
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.
The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2024-25 to FY 2029-30 on November 14 at 1:30 pm. The report will include an assessment of the General Fund surplus ($6.6 billion at end of FY 23-24) and Rainy Day Fund ($7.0 billion) under current law and policies. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.
The Commonwealth collected $3.38 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $137 million compared to October 2023.
Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2024-25 to 2029-30 in November 2024.
This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education to examine how school districts used $6.0 billion of temporary COVID-19 funds.
Fiscal Analyst Jesse Bushman presented an update on the Pennsylvania economy and a new projection of the Act 1 Index to the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials.
This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board to examine the recent increase in Act 1 property tax relief due to gaming expansion.