The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May.
Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the Task Force on Private Sector Retirement Security on the implications of aging for the Pennsylvania economy.
The IFO responds to a request regarding the percentage increase in spending allowed under House Bill 110.
This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2017 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. Revised for technical factor on 2/22/2018.
This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property.
Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23.
The Commonwealth collected $2.8 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $198.1 million (7.6%) compared to December 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $14.2 billion, an increase of $775.8 million (5.8%) from the prior year.
In response to a legislative request, the IFO compared the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states.
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This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past five budget cycles.
This report provides updated revenue distributions based on the estimates contained in the Official Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimates for Fiscal Year 2017-18 published by the IFO on August 10, 2017. The updated distributions reflect the statutory changes enacted with the state budget.
Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) to provide background on the IFO and an update on Pennsylvania’s short- and long-term budget outlook.