The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21.
The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas.
This research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16.
Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.
Section 604-B(a)(8) of Act 100 of 2016 (Act of July 20, 2016, P.L. 849, No. 100) requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to:
Provide a cost analysis for the current fiscal year and remaining subsequent fiscal years of the impact of each proposed collective bargaining agreement under the jurisdiction of the Governor prior to execution, including the costs to cover public employee wages, benefits, pensions and working conditions that have been reduced in writing under section 701 of the act of July 23, 1970 (P.L. 563, No. 195), known as the Public Employe Relations Act.
The Commonwealth collected $2.64 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $143.6 million (5.7%) compared to January 2016. Fiscal year-to-date revenues were $16.10 billion, an increase of $197.8 million (1.2%) from the prior year.
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2016-17. The revised estimate is $32.060 billion, which is $250 million lower than the IFO’s November 2016 estimate and $450 million lower than the estimate published by the IFO at the beginning of the fiscal year. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2017-18, revenues are projected to be $32.637 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May.
The IFO produces this report to facilitate comparison of its quarterly revenue estimates with actual revenue collections. The report also provides context for the variances between estimates and actual collections.
Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association (PSBA) regarding the current proposal and forecasts for school district property taxes in Pennsylvania.
*Updated February 13, 2017
Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the following six unions:
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Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA)
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Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP)
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Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania
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PA State Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers
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Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania
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United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW)
Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22.
Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22.
Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast.