Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $22.0 billion in General Fund revenues (1.7%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.
This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the National Center for Education Statistics and the U.S. Department of Transportation to facilitate a comparison of state and local government expenditures by major spending category across the 50 states. The report (1) examines Pennsylvania expenditures by category (e.g., education) over time, (2) compares Pennsylvania expenditures to other states and the U.S. average and (3) ranks the distribution of major spending categories by state.
This economic brief tracks the latest claims for unemployment compensation (UC) for all Pennsylvania covered workers and federal workers only.
This report provides revised monthly General Fund revenue estimates for FY 2025-26 based on projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2025 (includes adjustments released with the original monthly estimates in August 2025) adjusted to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in conjunction with the state budget in November 2025.
The Independent Fiscal Office released a one-page summary of highlights of its annual Fiscal Outlook for the General Fund. See the full report for additional detail not included in the one-page summary.
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Fiscal Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.
Due to recent developments with the state budget, the IFO will postpone its long-term fiscal outlook for FY 2025-26 to FY 2030-31 to November 20 at 1:30 pm. The report will include an assessment of the General Fund surplus and Rainy Day Fund under current law and policies.
See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. Those already registered do not need to re-register.
The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Representative Grove for an analysis of HB 860 from the 2015-2016 Legislative Session. The analysis estimates what would have been the 2016-2025 impact from a 0.63 percentage point increase in the personal income tax rate and a 1.0 percentage point increase in the sales and use tax rate. The new revenues would have been used to lower millage rates (personal income tax) and increase homestead/farmstead exclusions (sales and use tax).
The Commonwealth collected $3.46 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $81 million compared to October 2024.
The IFO released a report that outlines options for sales-use tax (SUT) base expansion. The report includes (1) an overview of the tax and recent collection trends, (2) a comparison to other states, (3) estimates for expansion of the SUT base to 15 additional goods and services, (4) a discussion of tax incidence across six income groups and (5) the impact of the current tax on the 67 counties. The report fulfills the office’s statutory obligation under Section 604-B (a)(5) of the Administrative Code of 1929.