The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Fiscal Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.
The Independent Fiscal Office released a one-page summary of highlights of its annual Fiscal Outlook for the General Fund. See the full report for additional detail not included in the one-page summary.
Due to recent developments with the state budget, the IFO will postpone its long-term fiscal outlook for FY 2025-26 to FY 2030-31 to November 20 at 1:30 pm. The report will include an assessment of the General Fund surplus and Rainy Day Fund under current law and policies.
See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. Those already registered do not need to re-register.
The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Representative Grove for an analysis of HB 860 from the 2015-2016 Legislative Session. The analysis estimates what would have been the 2016-2025 impact from a 0.63 percentage point increase in the personal income tax rate and a 1.0 percentage point increase in the sales and use tax rate. The new revenues would have been used to lower millage rates (personal income tax) and increase homestead/farmstead exclusions (sales and use tax).
The Commonwealth collected $3.46 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $81 million compared to October 2024.
The IFO released a report that outlines options for sales-use tax (SUT) base expansion. The report includes (1) an overview of the tax and recent collection trends, (2) a comparison to other states, (3) estimates for expansion of the SUT base to 15 additional goods and services, (4) a discussion of tax incidence across six income groups and (5) the impact of the current tax on the 67 counties. The report fulfills the office’s statutory obligation under Section 604-B (a)(5) of the Administrative Code of 1929.
This economic brief tracks the latest claims for unemployment compensation (UC) for all covered workers and federal workers only. The IFO is tracking these claims in preparation for its November five-year outlook report.
Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute.
The Commonwealth collected $4.06 billion in General Fund revenues for September, a decrease of $103 million (-2.5%) compared to September 2024.
As required by statute, the IFO submitted an economic impact report for the Major League Fishing Challenge Cup in Erie County (August 2024) to the General Assembly. The analysis finds that economic activity related to the event generated $177,000 in statewide spending and $21,000 in select state and local taxes.