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Economics and Other

IFO Releases
Release thumbnail - Pennsylvania IFO Shares Fiscal Outlook, Warns of Structural Imbalance - 2025-12-22
Pennsylvania IFO Shares Fiscal Outlook, Warns of Structural Imbalance
December 22, 2025 | Economics and Other

Director Knittel submitted content for publication in the CPA Now blog posted on December 22, 2025. The blog discusses the $5 billion structural deficit for FY 25-26 and provides background on income and sales tax that might be used to address it.

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Release thumbnail - Tax Credits and Other Incentives - 2025-12-18
Tax Credits and Other Incentives
December 18, 2025 | Economics and Other

This report presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2020-21 through FY 2025-26. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2025-26 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and will differ from final amounts claimed or awarded. The report also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization.

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Release thumbnail - Did Work Requirements Reduce SNAP Recipients? - 2025-12-18
Did Work Requirements Reduce SNAP Recipients?
December 18, 2025 | Economics and Other

The IFO published a new budget brief that uses the latest SNAP benefits data for November 2025. The data show that the number of enrollees declined by 158,000 (-8%) from the prior year as new work requirements take effect.

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Release thumbnail - Gasoline Consumption Fails to Recover - 2025-12-16
Gasoline Consumption Fails to Recover
December 16, 2025 | Economics and Other

This research brief examines recent trends for Pennsylvania gasoline consumption and PennDOT's highway and bridge construction project materials index. The data show a significant divergence, creating funding issues for future projects.

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Release thumbnail - Personal Income Tax ETR by County - 2025-12-11
Personal Income Tax ETR by County
December 11, 2025 | Economics and Other

This research brief computes 2023 county-level effective tax rates (ETRs) as the ratio of personal income tax liability to total income. Total income includes both taxable and non-taxable income (e.g., Social Security, pensions, SNAP benefits). Counties surrounding Philadelphia (Chester, Montgomery, Bucks and Delaware) had some of the highest ETRs, while rural counties (Forest, Cameron, Sullivan and Venango) had the lowest ETRs.

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Release thumbnail - Factors Driving Structural Deficit Expansion - 2025-12-04
Factors Driving Structural Deficit Expansion
December 04, 2025 | Economics and Other

As a follow up to its annual Fiscal Outlook, the IFO released a one page summary that examines factors that contributed to the rapid expansion of the General Fund structural deficit.

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Release thumbnail - State and Local Expenditures: A 50 State Comparison - 2025-11-25
State and Local Expenditures: A 50 State Comparison
November 25, 2025 | Economics and Other

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the National Center for Education Statistics and the U.S. Department of Transportation to facilitate a comparison of state and local government expenditures by major spending category across the 50 states. The report (1) examines Pennsylvania expenditures by category (e.g., education) over time, (2) compares Pennsylvania expenditures to other states and the U.S. average and (3) ranks the distribution of major spending categories by state.

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Release thumbnail - Pennsylvania Unemployment Claims Tracker - 2025-11-24
Pennsylvania Unemployment Claims Tracker
November 24, 2025 | Economics and Other

This economic brief tracks the latest claims for unemployment compensation (UC) for all Pennsylvania covered workers and federal workers only.

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Release thumbnail - Analysis of HB 860: Property Tax Relief via Income and Sales Tax - 2025-11-06
Analysis of HB 860: Property Tax Relief via Income and Sales Tax
November 06, 2025 | Economics and Other

The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Representative Grove for an analysis of HB 860 from the 2015-2016 Legislative Session. The analysis estimates what would have been the 2016-2025 impact from a 0.63 percentage point increase in the personal income tax rate and a 1.0 percentage point increase in the sales and use tax rate. The new revenues would have been used to lower millage rates (personal income tax) and increase homestead/farmstead exclusions (sales and use tax).

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Release thumbnail - Pennsylvania Sales Tax: Current Tax Base and Options for Expansion - 2025-10-23
Pennsylvania Sales Tax: Current Tax Base and Options for Expansion
October 23, 2025 | Economics and Other

The IFO released a report that outlines options for sales-use tax (SUT) base expansion. The report includes (1) an overview of the tax and recent collection trends, (2) a comparison to other states, (3) estimates for expansion of the SUT base to 15 additional goods and services, (4) a discussion of tax incidence across six income groups and (5) the impact of the current tax on the 67 counties. The report fulfills the office’s statutory obligation under Section 604-B (a)(5) of the Administrative Code of 1929.

 

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