This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2025-26 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2025 and the impact of statutory changes enacted with federal H.R. 1.
This report examines the historical performance of IFO revenue estimates. For FY 2024-25, actual collections exceeded IFO projections by 1.4%, or $640 million.
Tags: estimate, performance, revenues
The IFO released a budget brief that discusses the potential impact of proposed federal policy changes on General Fund deficit projections.
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2025-26. Updated estimates for FY 2024-25 are included.
The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2025-26. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.
The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Tuesday, May 20th at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2024-25 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2025-26. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.
This brief provides a summary of estimates for revenue proposals included in the FY 2025-26 Executive Budget, and a comparison to the estimates from that document. For a more detailed explanation of the data and methodologies used for estimates, see the Analysis of Revenue Proposals released concurrently with this brief.
This document was reposted on March 6 to address a formatting issue. All figures are unchanged from the original posting.
This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the FY 2025-26 Governor's Executive Budget released February 2025. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."
The IFO updated its baseline deficit projections based on new spending data from the Executive Budget. The revised projections are $3.5 billion (24-25), $6.0 billion (25-26) and $6.9 billion (26-27) under current laws and policies. If the projections hold, then the General Fund surplus would be depleted in 25-26 and the Rainy Day Fund in 26-27.
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year revenue update for fiscal year 2024-25 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May.