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Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted

This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP).   

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Healthcare and Government Drive PA Job Gains

The latest jobs data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that all Pennsylvania job gains for 2024 occurred in the government, healthcare or accommodation-food service sectors. The data reflect the aging demographics of the state and on-going demand for dining out and social assistance services.

04/10/2024

Child care Stimulus Funds Depleted

This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (careS) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP).   

03/21/2024

OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Office and Professional Employees International Union, Healthcare Pennsylvania (OPEIU).

12/07/2023

SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Service Employees' International Union (SEIU) Healthcare Pennsylvania.

12/06/2023

Senate Budget Hearing Request

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to net migration for Pennsylvania, U3 and U6 unemployment rates, tax burden and labor force participation rates for Pennsylvania and border states, Pennsylvania’s declining workforce and the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent care Enhancement Tax Credit.

04/05/2023

Post-Pandemic Child care Cliff

The IFO posted a second research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the impact that nearly $820 million in federal support had on the child care industry and its employees, and the funding cliff the industry will encounter in the near future.

02/23/2023

SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare.

11/06/2019

Child care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania

The report provides an overview of the economic impacts of state spending on subsidized child care and no-cost pre-kindergarten programs in Pennsylvania.

09/06/2017

Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements

Pursuant to section 604-B(a)(8) of the Administrative Code of 1929, the Independent Fiscal Office has prepared a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreements between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the following six unions: Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA) Federation of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania PA State Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW)

01/12/2017

An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania

Estimates the fiscal and economic impact of expanding Medicaid (Medical Assistance) under the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable care Act (ACA). The scope of the analysis is limited to the impact of Medicaid expansion; it does not address the costs, savings or economic effects of the ACA generally.

04/22/2013

PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

1: Community HealthChoices ................................................................................................. 11 Activity 1: Community HealthChoices (Addendum) .............................................................................. 17 Activity 2: LIFE Program .................................................................................................................... 25 Activity 3: FFS Long-Term Care.......................................................................................................... 29 Activity 4: Adult Protective Services.................................................................................................... 31 Activity 5: Licensing and Inspections .................................................................................................. 35 Activity 6: Child Care Works ............................................................................................................... 37 Activity 7: Quality Child Care ............................................................................................................. 43 Activity 7: Quality Child Care (Addendum) .......................................................................................... 49 Activity 8: Early Intervention ............................................................................................................. 51

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

State Centers…………………………….. Provide residential services to persons with ID/autism 10 Private ICFs (ID/Autism)………………… Finance services in private intermediate care facilities 11 County Mental Health Programs……… Fund county-based mental health services 12 State Hospitals…………………………. Treat and support those with 1. Child welfare services are shifting focus to prevention services in combination with the reduc- tion in out-of-home care for children. The foster care rate per 1,000 children has declined from 6.1 in FY 2015-16 to

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

blank. - Table of Contents Background and Methodology ............................................................................................. 1 Department of Health Overview .......................................................................................... 3 Activity 1: Ensure Access to Care ......................................................................................... 7 Activity 2: Disease Prevention and Outreach ........................................................................ 11 Activity 3: Disease Treatment............................................................................................. 15 Activity 4: HIV Surveillance, Prevention & Treatment ........................................................... 17 Activity 5 is to promote healthy behaviors, prevent injury and disease, and to ensure the safe delivery of quality health care for all people in Pennsylvania. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by the department are classified into 13 general activities

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

service operations to the app and allowing for online document uploads. The uninsured rate and access to health care are important metrics to track over time. Since 2014, the Pennsylvania uninsured rate has dropped from 10.2 percent to 6.6 to 138 percent of the Federal Poverty Level. As the uninsured rate declines, department costs related to uncompensated care payments should continue to decline (i.e., reimbursements to providers for services that the patient cannot pay). Initiation rates for substance use

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RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP). In general, stimulus funds had to

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RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf

struggled to retain employees and fill job vacancies. That outcome could be partly due to a lack of affordable child care options for working families, as the child care industry has yet to revert to pre-pandemic employment levels. In June 2020, industry payroll employment (excludes self-employed individuals

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections and certain descriptive text contained in this section are from the IFO report Pennsylvania Demographic Outlook (September than in the short term due to factors such as changing economic conditions, immigration policies, domestic migration incentives and health care. 1 Page 2 of the Pennsylvania Demographic Outlook notes that since the COVID-19 impact on overall deaths and births

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

Special Education .............................................................................................................. 29 Activity 3: Child Development and Early Learning ................................................................................ 35 Activity 4: Postsecondary and Higher Education .................................................................................. 39 Activity 5: Career and Technical Education ......................................................................................... 45 Activity 6: Teacher Certification & Professional Development ............................................................... 49 Activity 7: Curriculum and Assessments .............................................................................................. 53 Activity 8: Public Early Learning....... Ensure high quality early learning 4 Postsecondary and Higher Education........ Authorize and administer funds for postsec. education 5 Career and Technical Education................ Evaluate and approve CTE programs 6 Teacher Certification and Prof. Develop...... Approve preparation programs and certify educators

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

gains are real (e.g., higher profit margins, gains from remote working) and some are inflationary (e.g., permanently higher car prices, in- flated stock market). The remainder of this report provides further detail and context for these changes. General Fund that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections and certain descriptive text contained in this sec- tion are from the IFO report Pennsylvania Demographic Outlook

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

First). Family First provides new federal funding for certain evidence- based prevention services, but limits federal funding for congregate foster care placements. In addition, your letter raised particular areas of concern related to the implementation of Family First including (1) the child welfare program services. Title IV- E of the Social Security Act, the largest source of federal funding, covers foster care programs, adoption assistance, guardianship assistance (including kinship guardianship assistance), services for older youth aging out of foster care and the

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

occupations include: bartenders, wait staff, food servers, hosts/hostesses, barbers, hair- dressers, miscellaneous personal appearance workers, miscellaneous personal care and service workers, baggage han- dlers and gaming service workers. 16-19 20-24 25-39 40+ Single no kids Single kids and 200 percent of the FPL and likely also qualified for certain state programs (e.g., subsidized child care). The lower half of the table details the number of families within various income groups. Roughly 11 percent of all Pennsylvania families

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

granted a twenty-five percent increase in the annual pension accrual rate going back throughout each active employee’s entire career. (Even greater increases were provided to members of the General Assembly and judiciary, but the number of employees within those noted that for PSERS, the employer contribution rates shown are for pension benefits only and do not include the health care contribution rate. Any of these amortization methods would fully pay the existing unfunded actuarial accrued liabilities of the systems, provided

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

affects economic growth, ele- mentary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections and certain descriptive text contained in this section are from the IFO report Pennsylvania Demographic Outlook (October birth, death and migration rates can vary significantly due to changing economic conditions, immigration policies, domestic migration incentives and health care. Table 2.1 reveals the following trends: ▪ The total population grew 288,000 from 2010 to 2020 and is projected

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Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf

the expiration of the enhanced federal matching rate (FMAP) and a rapidly expanding age 75+ population that requires long-term care. Relative to the enacted budget, the FY 2023-24 deficit for this outlook is $425 million lower. That compar- ison affects economic growth, ele- mentary and secondary students who require educational services and older residents who may require long-term care. All population projections and certain descriptive text contained in this section are from the IFO report Pennsylvania Demographic Outlook (October

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

understand or appreciate, particularly in early years of employment. Account balance is easily understood and appreciated by employees throughout their careers. Several decades ago, participation in DC pension plans was largely restricted to limited employee subgroups, such as public educators, higher of benefits at retirement. Accordingly, the DC contribution rates presented in Chart II are determined under four different assumptions of career-average annual investment earnings to reflect the variation in investment earnings that may be experienced by different employees during different

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this section are by the IFO based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania to 2025 (333,000, 13.5 percent cumulative). This trend implies strong demand for healthcare and long- term care services. 1 For more information on the assumptions used in the IFO projections, see the Appendix. Section 2: Demographic Outlook | Page 6

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

Centers/QA.………………………………………………………………………………………………. License centers and monitor program quality 6 Advocate for Older Adults…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Advocate for older adults in long-term care settings 7 Administration…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Provide organizational leadership and support Department of Aging: Activities and Primary Services Provided 16-17 Actual 17- for more details. Share of substantiated abuse/neglect RONs by type The COVID-19 pandemic impacted how older adults are cared for in numerous ways. Older adults are at much higher risk for complications related to COVID-19, therefore many traditional

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

PUA recipients report annual incomes of less than $10,000. See “UI Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 Cares Act” Petrosky-Nadeau and Valetta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (May 17, 2021) at https://www.frbsf.org/economic- next year. Data show that many consumers have a more solid financial profile because they used EIPs to reduce credit card debt. Due to low interest rates, a record number of homeowners also refinanced mortgages and reduced their monthly payments, which

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

PUA recipients report annual incomes of less than $10,000. See “UI Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 Cares Act” Petrosky-Nadeau and Valetta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (May 17, 2021) at https://www.frbsf.org/economic- next year. Data show that many consumers have a more solid financial profile because they used EIPs to reduce credit card debt. Due to low interest rates, a record number of homeowners also refinanced mortgages and reduced their monthly payments, which

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PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf

alcohol facilities 205 222 228 224 221 -- Outpatient drug and alcohol facilities 647 638 643 622 616 -- Approved Capacity Residential care (000s) 9.8 10.5 11.0 11.2 11.1 -- Non-residential care (000s) 115 118 118 123 125 -- Licensed for MAT (%) 6 39.0% 42.7% 48.4% 51.6% 54.6%

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

already exists, no change will be needed to implement Commonwealth subsidies. Commission Recommendations • The Commission recommends that the General Assembly carefully consider the fiscal impact to the Commonwealth of providing the proposed benefit extension. • The Commission recommends that, prior to the Environmental Hearing Board Environmental Protection Executive Offices Fish and Boat Commission Game Commission General Services Governor's Office Health Health Care Cost Containment Council Historical and Museum Commission Insurance Labor and Industry Liquor Control Board Lt. Governor's Office Military and

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RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdf

declined from 85.9 in 2019 to 76.6 in 2023 (-10.8%). As capacity contracted, nursing home and residential care facility staff declined as well. In 2019, the industry had a payroll workforce of nearly 216,000. 3 By 2023, preliminary data suggest that figure will decline to 186,300 (-13.7%). Although the number of individuals receiving care in a community setting (community-based waiver services) has increased 13% since 2019, demand for institution-based care continues to

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

recent agency activities include: ▪ Provide resources and assistance to approximately 800,000 Pennsylvania veterans and their families, and provide quality care for aging and disabled veterans. ▪ Provide safe and efficient operation of six state-owned veterans homes that deliver quality daily per- sonal, skilled nursing and secure care to roughly 1,000 veteran residents and spouses. From March through December 31, 2020, 393 residents tested positive for COVID-

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf

128,200 in 2025 and 302,800 by 2030. Senator Street requested how expansion of the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit could impact economic growth. The new Pennsylvania child and dependent care enhancement tax credit is equal to 30% of the credit claimed for federal tax purposes. For tax year 2020 (latest

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

with restricted occu- pancy can operate at 75 percent capacity, and other businesses such as restaurants, bars, personal care services, gyms, casinos and entertainment venues can operate at 50 percent capacity. The forecast as- sumes that these restrictions will eventually be exists pent-up demand for both goods (e.g., homes, vehicles, furniture) and services (e.g., healthcare, personal care and legal services) that will be partially recouped in 2020 Q3 and Q4. 4 This assumption is consistent with a recent analysis

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

in June 2009. The recession spanned nineteen months, making it the longest downturn since World War II. The Bureau was careful to note that the recession’s end did not imply that robust growth would soon return. Rather, the announcement merely Bush-era tax cuts are extended into 2013; (3) the higher tax rate on non-wage income from the Affordable Care Act is fully implemented in 2014, and (4) the automatic spending cuts scheduled to take effect January 2013 do not

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Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf

3.0%).  The accommodations-food service sector had the largest relative contraction (-4.5%).  The nursing and residential care subsector (not shown, included with healthcare) contracted by 27,500 payroll jobs (-13.5%).  The government sector contracted by SUT revenue growth was largely flat for the last three quarters. For those quarters, the Philadelphia CPI-U for used cars declined 6.6%, but increased by 6.1% for new cars (not shown).  In CY 2022, Pennsylvania consumer auto

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

exists pent-up demand for both goods (e.g., homes, vehicles, furniture) and services (e.g., healthcare, personal care and legal services) that will be partially recouped in 2020 Q2 and Q3.  A second outbreak does not occur later this interest deductions and the employee retention credit that are part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The delay of 2020 employer payroll taxes to no later than December 2021 (one-half) and December 2022 (remaining half

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Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf

to 2019.  The accommodations-food service sector had the largest relative contraction (-3.4%).  The nursing and residential care subsector (not shown, included with healthcare) contracted by 26,100 payroll jobs (-12.8%).  The government sector contracted by SUT revenue growth was largely flat for the last three quarters. For those quarters, the Philadelphia CPI-U for used cars declined 6.6%, but increased by 6.1% for new cars (not shown).  In CY 2022, Pennsylvania consumer auto

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

have the means to track firefighters or other metrics specific to individual fire companies. Tracking the total (both career and volunteer) number of new and existing firefighters will identify turnover and retention rates and allow OSFC to allocate resources to localities and facilitating participation in nuclear power plant response exercises and (2) providing radiolog- ical monitoring, decontamination and medical care training to first-responders. Resources 14-15 Actual 15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

a third-party provider. 3. Average annual salary growth of 5.15% weighted more heavily at the beginning of a career. 4. For the proposal, early retirement reduction of 6.0% for employees with 25 years of credited service, and 12 evenly between two employers would receive a lower benefit. Typically, employees earn a lower salary in the beginning of their career. The A01354 and A01558 to SB 1 24 Independent Fiscal Office employee would therefore receive an annual retirement benefit of

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf

1% Community HealthChoices 108 11.6% 10,959 75.4% Hearings and Appeals 99 10.6% 14 0.1% Child Care Works 78 8.4% 917 6.3% CHIP 28 3.0% 368 2.5% Early Intervention Program 13 1.4% 222 1.5% Quality Child Care 7 0.8% 44 0.3% FFS Long-Term Care 7 0.8% 636 4.4% Other 15 1.6%

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

that affect the ma- jority of Pennsylvania’s residents. The state has approximately 10.4 million driver license and ID card hold- ers and more than 12 million registered vehicles including automobiles, commercial vehicles, trailers and fleet vehicles. The department processes applications and collects fees for all vehicle registrations and titles, driver license and identification (ID) cards. As a part of these duties, the department implemented the federally mandated REAL ID program that is scheduled to be

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

analysis, tipped occupations include: bartenders, wait staff, food servers, hosts/hostesses, barbers, hair- dressers, miscellaneous personal appearance workers, miscellaneous personal care and service workers, baggage han- dlers and gaming service workers. CY 2019 CY 2022 Change Non-Tipped Workers $7.25 per hour. Those savings are offset by an increase in CHIP spending and higher reimbursement rates to childcare and direct care workers. For community-based programs for persons with physical disabilities and seniors, DHS assumed that direct care workers receive an

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

efforts, Congress enacted three pieces of legislation. These actions included the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act which included the first round of EIPs ($1,200 per adult), the establishment of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP 5.2 billion in CY 2020; $1.3 billion in CY 2021). Stimulus Act Adult Dependent Maximum Cap Maximum Cap CARES $1,200 $500 $75,000 $99,000 $150,000 $198,000 CAA 600 600 75,000 87,000 150,000

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

largest gains and contractions in 2016, as well as the change for those sectors in the prior year. The health care sector added the most jobs in 2016 (21,012), nearly double the 2015 employment gain for that sector. The majority of the increase for these two years (73%) was attributable to home health care services and services for the elderly and disabled, which have expanded under the Affordable Care Act. In contrast, the manufacturing

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

the same period in the prior year as the nation responded to the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation efforts. Used Car Prices See Strong Gains in August The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released national consumer price index (CPI-U August 2020. For all items less energy, the CPI-U increased 1.7% since the prior August. In particular, used cars have seen strong year -over-year price growth (4.0%) as well as a recent spike in prices from July

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Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf

debt by income level as it overlaps with first-time homebuyers and/or renters. This response focuses on average credit card balances, because (1) that has been the largest source of debt increases over the last year by a significant margin and (2) credit card balances most reflect consumers’ ability to cover current expenses. In November 2022, the New York Federal Reserve released an analysis

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BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf

0, provide your best estimate of the cost multiplier for a typical ED student who is also in foster care. Your answer may be the same as question 1, or somewhat higher. (Respondents were not given a drop-down menu of 1.40 1.43 1.43 1.44 1.53 1.05 1.17 1.16 Students in Foster Care Multiplier Median 1 Average 1 Wght. Avg. 1,2 Independent Fiscal Office Page 10 Question 5: If your average base cost

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

regarding Pennsylvania residents age 65 or older. Specifically, your letters requested the following information:  Cost by major program of caring for seniors for FY 2017-18 actual and FY 2019-20 budgeted expenditures. You requested that federal funds and the Homes funding attributable to residents age 65 and older. 4 Includes General Fund and TSF funding for MA - Long-Term Care, MA - Community HealthChoices, MA - Capitation, MA - Fee-for-Service, Home and Community-Based Services, Long-Term Care Managed Care and

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

21 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Quality Assurance 273 26.4% $40.6 6.0% Ensure Access to Care 196 19.0 % 111.4 16.4 % Disease Prevention and Outreach 160 15.5 % 69.5 10.2 % Vital Statistics Appropriations (2019-20) January 23, 2020 22 Activities Sch. Dist. Health Services GGO Local Health Depart. Quality Assurance State Health Care Centers AIDS Prog. & Spec. Pharm. Svcs. Other Total Ensure Access to Care $35.6 $0.9 $25.4 $0.0

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf

Credit Cards Drive 3.0% Rise in Pennsylvania Consumer Debt On November 7th, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its slower than the U.S. (4.3%). The figure below displays the year-over-year (YOY) growth rates for credit card, auto loan, mortgage and student loan debt. The following trends were observed: Credit card debt declined significantly (-11.3%) in

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

31 -17.1% Limited-Service Restaurant 162 135 -27 -16.6% Employment Service (Temps) 12 104 -24 -18.6% Personal Care-Dry Cleaning 73 50 -23 -31.2% Local Government 465 443 -22 -4.7% Retail – Clothing Stores 45 23 -22 -48.8% Accommodations 59 38 -21 -35.2% Nursing and Residential Care 202 189 -13 -6.2% State Government - Education 63 54 -9 -14.4% Air Transportation 13 8 -6 -41.8%

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

000s) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Employment Services (temps) -33 Full-Service Restaurant -30 Nursing and Residential Care -28 Accommodations -17 Amusements- Gaming -15 Retail- Building and Garden +4 Couriers and Messengers +15 Warehouse and Storage +21 Real Statistics. Dec 2021 vs Dec 2019 Recent Rapid Acceleration of Inflation March 4, 2022 11 Very High (Dec 21) Used Cars +38.1% Gasoline +37.4% Energy +25.1% New Cars +22.4% Relatively Low (Dec 21) Education-Comm +1.9%

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

21 Jobs Contraction Employment Services (temps) -27 -33 -23% -34% Full-Service Restaurants -37 -30 -18 -17 Nursing and Residential Care -26 -28 -13 -16 Accommodations -20 -17 -31 -40 Amusements and Gaming -20 -15 -22 -31 Jobs Expansion Warehouse and 2019 -3.5 ppt, -358k workers Recent Rapid Acceleration of Inflation January 31, 2022 10 Very High (Dec 21) Used Cars +38.1% Gasoline +37.4% Energy +25.1% New Cars +22.4% Relatively Low (Dec 21) Education-Comm +1.9%

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

8.1 14.6 PA Auto Loan Debt 12.7 9.9 8.9 7.4 -- 17.0 PA Credit Card Debt -6.2 -2.8 3.1 8.9 -- -5.5 PA Mortgage Debt 4.2 6.3 6.4 Sales and Use Tax Notes Non-motor sales tax up +17% in CY 2021 ▪ March 2022 surprise (+24%) | higher dependent care credit? ▪ April 2022 up +4% | May and June projected flat ▪ 21-22 forecast: slight decline due to lack of stimulus

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

months. Most unemployment compensation is spent. Nearly 75% of non-PPP stimulus to residents with < $50k income. Per capita credit card debt down 14% in 2021 Q1. Note: Billions of dollars. PPP includes both pass-through entities and C corporations. Source Used Vehicles 7.5 1.5 2.9 11.0 Gasoline 2.6 -2.8 9.6 36.4 Medical Care 8.7 0.8 4.0 4.4 All Items Less Energy 94.0% 1.4% 0.8% 2.7%

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Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf

roughly the same as the overall CPI-U (+22%). Not shown are CPI components with subdued growth, such as medical care (+7%, out-of-pocket consumer costs only) and education-communication (+4%). Figure 1.1 Annual Growth in Philadelphia CPI-U year increase in per capita debt for Pennsylvania consum- ers was 0.4% for auto loans, 10.0% for credit cards and 0.7% for mortgage debt (includes home equity loans). Mortgage debt by far is the largest component, comprising two-

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

Senior Centers appropriations. 3 Includes appropriations from the TSF. 4.Includes General Fund and TSF funding for MA - Long-Term Care, MA - Community HealthChoices, MA - Capitation, MA - Fee-for-Service, Home and Community-Based Services, Long-Term Care Managed Care and Payment to Federal Government - Medicare Drug Program appropriations. 5 Includes MA - Long-Term Care, Home and Community-

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RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf

contraction of 59,900 payroll jobs. Two subsectors comprise 80% of the July net jobs contraction: nursing home and residential care (-27,500) and full-service restaurants (-20,300). Other sectors or subsectors with notable job losses include all manufacturing (-13 2019 July 2022 Change Total Payroll Employment (000s) 6,040.9 5,981.0 -59.9 Nursing Home and Residential Care 203.8 176.3 -27.5 Full-Service Restaurants 200.8 180.5 -20.3 All Manufacturing 579.0 566

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RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf

total contraction of 139,200 payroll jobs. Two subsectors comprise 40% of the net jobs contraction: nursing home and residential care (-29,700) and full-service restaurants (-26,600). Other sectors or subsectors with notable job losses include non-profits and 2019 May 2022 Change Total Payroll Employment (000s) 6,094.2 5,955.0 -139.2 Nursing Home and Residential Care 203.3 173.6 -29.7 Full-Service Restaurants 202.6 176.0 -26.6 Non-Profit, Professional, Advocacy 137

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PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf

fairly and efficiently; and (8) innovate to meet the needs of a dynamic and rapidly changing financial services and health care marketplace. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by PID are classified into six general activities. Department Resources Activity Fund (State) -- -- -- 86.5 -- -- General Fund (Federal) 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.0 Med Care Avail. & Red. Error Fund 190.7 218.9 199.6 175.4 150.5 194.5 Reinsurance Fund -- -- -- 0.1

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PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf

services. Commonwealth employees are eligible for a wide array of benefits, such as medical and supplemental health benefits; the Dependent Care Account Program (DCAP); charitable giving through the State Employee Combined Appeal; long-term disability insurance; and voluntary life, home and 6 $34.0 Improper payments recovered ($ millions) $5.6 $3.3 $5.5 $4.4 $10.4 $5.8 Purchase cards Purchase value ($ millions) $234.8 $240.9 $233.6 $236.8 $239.8 $237.2 Improper payments ($ millions) $0.1

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

York (FRBNY) publishes quarterly state data on consumer debt. The data span major loan types, such as mortgage, auto, credit card and student loan, and provide insight as to whether consumers are accumulating or paying down debt. For Pennsylvania and most New Jersey fell by more than 1% per annum, but recent data show modest gains. Similar to mortgage debt, credit card debt peaked in 2008 for the states below. However, credit card debt grew more quickly than mortgage debt from 2010

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

were relaxed over the summer including: Airline Fares (+19.0%), Lodging Away from Home (+21.5%) and Gasoline (+41.8%). Car and Truck Rental prices grew 73.5% compared to last July. The large price increase is the result of greater driven by higher prices and volume. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Philadelphia-area prices for new cars increased 18.7%, and used cars increased 45.3% from June 2020. For sales volume, the National Automobile Dealer Association

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

CHIP).  Large increase in the 65-84 age cohort (29.4 percent).  Implies significant growth for general health care programs covered under Medical Assistance.  Increase in the elderly over age 85 (10.5 percent) and 95 (139.0 percent).  Implies higher demand for long-term care services covered under Medical Assistance. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 19 15.Nov.2012 General Fund Expenditures The Economic

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Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf

Age 65+ (Boomers) Workers Age 45-64 (Gen X) Note: Services for Elderly-Disabled include Nursing Homes (-17k), Home Health Care (+9k) and Social Assistance, Elderly-Disabled (+31k). Age data span from 2019 Q2 to 2023 Q2 (latest data). Employment / Population Dec 2023 Slide 8 Feb 2024 Economic Summit S&P 500 +50% PA Home Values +47% New-Used Vehicles +37% Car Insurance +36% Car Repair +31% Grocery, All Energy +27% Shelter +21% Philly CPI-U +19% Education-Communication +2% Clothing +4%

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index.cfm

impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." ... (Full Report) Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted Economics and Other March 21, 2024 This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

State Health Policy Annual Presentation The Economic and Budget Outlook Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2012 Health Care Reform: What it Means for States 1 • 25 year old non-profit, non-partisan organization • Academy members – Peer-selected group coming soon) IV.ACA tools to achieve state priorities 3 The Promise of Health Reform 4 Triple Aim • Better patient care • Improved population health • Reduced costs 5 A Shift in Conventional Wisdom Access Cost Quality 1990 Cost Quality 2012 Access 6

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Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf

CPI-U • Energy deflation since June 2022 • Gasoline, recently utility bills down (natural gas) • Durable goods deflation in December • Used cars down -12% since June 2022 Slide 7 Jan 2024 Roundtable 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 Expansion (Payroll Jobs) • Social Assistance +32 (most is elderly-disabled services) • Warehouse-Storage +23 • Comp System Design +10 • Home Health Care +9 Contraction • Nursing Home -17 • Full Serve Restaurant -13 • Retail Sales -12 Slide 9 Jan 2024 Roundtable 5,000 5

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

12,000). ▪ The administration-waste management and accommodations-food service sectors had the largest relative contractions. ▪ The nursing and residential care subsector (included with healthcare-social assistance) contracted by 30,000 payroll jobs (-14.6%) relative to May 2019 while the revenues. Figure 1.3 YOY Growth in Philadelphia CPI-U: Total and Components Note: Taxable includes food away from home, cars, furniture, appliances, recreation and communications. Non- taxable includes shelter, gasoline, groceries, healthcare, fuels-utilities and other services. Source: U.S

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

movie theatres, sports events, bowling alleys) and accommodations- food service sectors have the largest relative contractions. ▪ The nursing and residential care subsector (included with healthcare-social assistance) contracted by 32,000 payroll jobs (-15.6%) relative to April 2019 while the revenues. Figure 1.3 YOY Growth in Philadelphia CPI-U: Total and Components Note: Taxable includes food away from home, cars, furniture, appliances, recreation and communications. Non- taxable includes shelter, gasoline, groceries, healthcare, fuels-utilities and other services. Computed growth rates

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

single sector comprised 40 to 45 percent of all net jobs created, and the two subsectors devoted to care of the elderly-disabled comprised roughly one-quarter of all net jobs created. Other sectors that recorded notable gains include food service 3.5 2.1 Home Healthcare 3.6 4.2 4.8 4.5 5.9 Other Ambulatory Care 4.5 2.0 4.7 4.1 6.9 All Other Healthcare 1.1 -2.7 0.7 3.8 2

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

Benefits (EB) and Pandemic Un- employment Assistance (PUA). PEUC and PUA benefits are strictly federal programs enacted by the federal CARES Act and extended by later stimulus legislation. PEUC extended the length of benefits for traditional unemployed workers, while PUA expanded programs that work closely with WIOA. The department partners with other state agencies including the Department of Education, which oversees Career and Technical Education (CTE) and Adult Education, and the Department of Community and Economic Development (DCED), which sup- ports workforce

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

single sector comprised 40 to 45 percent of all net jobs created, and the two subsectors devoted to care of the elderly-disabled comprised roughly one-quarter of all net jobs created. Other sectors that recorded notable gains include food service 3.5 2.1 Home Healthcare 3.6 4.2 4.8 4.5 5.9 Other Ambulatory Care 4.5 2.0 4.7 4.1 6.9 All Other Healthcare 1.1 -2.7 0.7 3.8 2

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

gasoline, all CPI-U components recorded minor price gains. Especially notable was the modest increase of the medical care component (0.4 percent) following two years of strong growth. The medical care component reflects out-of-pocket medical costs for con- sumers (includes deductions from paychecks) and does not reflect insurance premiums paid by

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Women Drive 80% of Job Growth in Health Care since 2000 On August 14, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that the number of full-time, non-seasonal health care workers grew from 5 million to 9 million since 2000. In 2017, three-quarters of these health care jobs were

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Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf

May 24, 2023 8 Payroll Jobs (000s) Number Percent Mar 19 Mar 23 Change Change Jobs Contraction Nursing and Residential Care 203 176 -28 -13.5% Full-Service Restaurants 196 182 -14 -7.3 Local Govt (exclude education) 180 169 -11 of payroll jobs. Data not seasonally adjusted. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Credit Card Debt Reverts, But on Pace to Surpass Trend May 24, 2023 9 Dec 2022 debt level reverts to pre-COVID

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Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf

May 24, 2023 8 Payroll Jobs (000s) Number Percent Mar 19 Mar 23 Change Change Jobs Contraction Nursing and Residential Care 203 176 -28 -13.5% Full-Service Restaurants 196 182 -14 -7.3 Local Govt (exclude education) 180 169 -11 of payroll jobs. Data not seasonally adjusted. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Credit Card Debt Reverts, But on Pace to Surpass Trend May 24, 2023 9 Dec 2022 debt level reverts to pre-COVID

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

gasoline, all CPI-U components recorded minor price gains. Especially notable was the modest increase of the medical care component (0.4 percent) following two years of strong growth. The medical care component reflects out-of-pocket medical costs for con- sumers (includes deductions from paychecks) and does not reflect insurance premiums paid by

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

Percent Full-Service Restaurant 196 165 -31 -15.9% Employment Service (temps) 123 92 -31 -24.9% Nursing and Residential Care 202 176 -26 -12.9% Accommodations 61 46 -16 -25.6% Amusements and Gaming 75 61 -15 -19.5% Local 9 -22.2% Limited-Service Restaurant 161 154 -8 -4.9% Colleges and Universities 163 156 -8 -4.7% Child Care 47 43 -5 -9.5% Warehousing and Storage 94 108 14 15.2% Courier and Messengers 36 47 11 30

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EPLC_April_2024.pdf

2019 Q4 vs 2023 Q4 All Jobs +13k Payroll Jobs +30k 000s jobs Education Policy & Leadership Center Slide 11 • Credit card debt currently above trend • Typically grows by $40 billion (roughly 3.6%) per annum • 2023 grows ~$100 billion (8.7% in following Jan/Feb; In Dec 23, only 2.9% was paid off in following Jan/Feb U.S. Credit Card Debt Over Time Source: U.S. Federal Reserve. Dec '18, $1,054 Dec '19, $1,092 Dec '22, $1,213

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2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf

CPI-U • Energy deflation since June 2022 • Gasoline, recently utility bills down (natural gas) • Durable goods deflation in December • Used cars down -12% since June 2022 Slide 6 Mid-Year Update 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 Expansion (Payroll Jobs) • Social Assistance +32 (most is elderly-disabled services) • Warehouse-Storage +23 • Comp System Design +10 • Home Health Care +9 Contraction • Nursing Home -17 • Full Serve Restaurant -13 • Retail Sales -12 Slide 8 Mid-Year Update 5,000 5

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

history of what could be described as “socially responsible” or “ethical” investing spans many centuries. Religious investors have long given careful thought to such consider- ations, often avoiding certain investments on moral grounds. In 19 th century America, many religious groups risk associated with such behavior. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has described this as “a crucial issue for investors” and of material concern to their investment decisions. In fact, the SEC has recently established an Office of Global Security Risk

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

individuals across 42 establishments. These wholesalers deal in aircraft, engines and parts as well as certain boats, golf carts and railroad equipment. Although the QCEW data do not allow for a more refined breakout, other data from the U.S. Census roughly 210 individuals across 40 establishments. These retailers deal in new and used aircraft as well as golf carts, snowmobiles and utility trailers. Although the QCEW data do not allow for a more refined breakout, data from the U.S. Census

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

63 million. Those savings are offset by higher program costs related to reimbursement rates to childcare and direct care providers ($21 million). The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) costs also increase by $6 million due to 6,300 children moving offset by children moving from Medicaid to CHIP ($23 million) and higher reimbursement rates to childcare and direct care workers. For community-based programs for persons with physical disabilities and seniors, DHS assumed that (1) direct care workers receive an average

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PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf

Sector or Sub-Sector Change Warehousing and Storage +30 Management (HQs) +14 Couriers and Messengers +6 Nursing Home and Residential Care -27 Full-Service Restaurants -18 Local Gov’t: municipals -10 Colleges and Universities -9 Non-Profits -9 Accommodation -8 Local 0.1 -- -- -- Economic Impact Payments 11.2 22.1 0.8 -- -- -- PPP Loans 20.7 10.0 -- -- -- -- CTC/ERC/Dependent Care -- 4.4 3.8 -- -- -- SNAP and P-EBT 1.3 3.4 2.7 $0.4 $0.1 $0.2

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PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf

0.1 -- -- -- Economic Impact Payments 11.2 22.1 0.8 -- -- -- PPP Loans 20.7 10.0 -- -- -- -- CTC/ERC/Dependent Care -- 4.4 3.8 -- -- -- SNAP and P-EBT 1.3 3.4 2.7 $0.4 $0.1 $0.2 Sector or Sub-Sector Change Warehousing and Storage +30 Management (HQs) +14 Couriers and Messengers +6 Nursing Home and Residential Care -27 Full-Service Restaurants -18 Local Gov’t: municipals -10 Colleges and Universities -9 Non-Profits -9 Accommodation -8 Local

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

year inflation of 4.6%, down from 4.9% in June. That result is due to a deceleration in used car and gasoline inflation (not shown in table) and a significant deceleration in Medical Care inflation from 2.8% in June to 0.0% in August. Also notable is the modest growth in monthly rents

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

2020, this subsector employed 48,400 and experienced minimal employment loss during the pandemic. Prices for Household Appliances and Used Cars Increase Dramatically The December Philadelphia Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased 1 goods experienced large year-over-year price growth compared to December 2019 including: household furniture and appliances (+12.2%), used cars and trucks (+10.1%), personal care services such as haircuts (+6.0%) and food away from home (+5.4%, includes

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

136 -27 -16.4% Accommodation 58 35 -23 -39.9% Clothing and Accessory – Retail 46 24 -22 -47.4% Personal Care-Dry Cleaning 71 50 -21 -30.0% Amusements – Gaming 62 48 -14 -22.0% Nursing and Residential Care 202 189 -13 -6.4% Air Transportation 13 8 -6 -41.0% Expansion Courier and Messengers 49 59 10 20

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Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf

that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and older residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report are made by the IFO based on data from the U.S. Census birth, death or migration rates could change substantially due to changing economic conditions, immigration policies, domestic migration incentives and health care. Table 2.1 reveals the following trends for the three time periods: ▪ The total population grew 0.8% from 2015

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Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf

that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report are made by the IFO based on data from the U.S. Census death or migration rates could change substantially due to changing economic conditions, im- migration policies, domestic migration incentives and health care. Table 2.1 reveals the following trends for the three time periods:  The total population grew 0.2% per

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

5% 8.2% 4.8% ‐0.6% ‐0.8% ‐0.2% ‐2.1% 0.3% 2.1% 0.4% Credit Card 2.7% 7.7% 0.2% ‐8.2% ‐7.1% ‐1.8% ‐2.2% 2.3% 0.8% 5.5% 68.3% 67.7% 67.9% 68.3% 68.8% 69.7% Note: Other debt includes personal loans and credit cards for specific stores. Data pertain to debt at the end of the calendar year. Source: Consumer debt from Federal Reserve

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

200% March to May  Reduce monthly payments | take out equity  Latest monthly data show clear deceleration | September ~+80% CARES Act allows early withdrawals from 401k and IRA  Up to $100,000 for qualified persons | 10% penalty does not withdrawn under program Shifting consumer spending patterns  Less out of state travel | gasoline consumption down ~10%  Home improvement, cars, appliances and computers all taxable October 29, 2020 7 Mitigation vs. Recovery Period: Revenue Growth Rates October 29, 2020 8

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

3% Amusements-Gaming 4.0 3.9 1.8 -58.7% 2.4 1.5 -1.3 -73.6 Personal Care-Laundry 1.7 1.2 -0.7 -53.1 1.7 3.0 -4.2 -61.9 Dentist Offices 1.3 1.3 -0.9 -52.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Child Care 3.5 3.1 1.2 -31.6 3.1 2.5 0.8 -40.8 Employment Services 0.7

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RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdf

34,100, +4.3%). Ambulatory healthcare services (10,000, +3.5%) include offices of physicians, dentists, other health practitioners, outpatient care centers and medical/diagnostic labs. Home health care services recorded the largest relative increase (+7.2%) and expanded by 5,300 payroll jobs. Hospitals, which include general medical

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RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf

contraction of 85,200 payroll jobs. Three subsectors comprise 73% of the September net jobs contraction: nursing home and residential care (-26,500), employment services (i.e., temp jobs, -19,200) and full-service restaurants (-16,600). Other sectors or subsectors discourage labor force participation. Potential factors that could motivate labor force contraction include: long-term demographic trends, increased home schooling, care of elderly parents reluctant to enter nursing homes, recent accumulation of savings and wealth due to inflated asset markets, on-

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was enacted as part of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. 1 The program made forgivable loans available to small businesses and other entities that met certain criteria such as well as firms that did not report an industry or sector. 1 The original $349 billion of loans under the CARES Act was later expanded by $320 billion by the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act of 2020. 2

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PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf

S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Advance CTC starts Economy: Recent Acceleration of Inflation January 19, 2022 4 Very High Used Cars +38.1% Gasoline +37.4% Energy +25.1% New Cars +22.4% Relatively Low Education-Comm +1.9% Medical Care +3.3% Shelter +4.3% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf

Budget Board September 28, 2021 PBB Addendum Requests Pennsylvania Department of Transportation ▪ Activity 12 – Administration: Human Resources measures related to career development and recruitment Department of Human Services ▪ Activity 2 (CCW), Activity 7 (Community ID/Autism Programs) and Activity 11 (County MH Programs): Staff turnover and average wages for contracted or third-party direct care workers that provide care to individuals served through child welfare, intellectual disabilities and mental health services programs Department of Military

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

provides constitutionally required healthcare services for inmates through contracts with three separate vendors for physical, mental and pharmaceutical care. This service model includes the review of prescription practices, infirmary usage, inpatient hospitalizations, outpatient services and mental health services utilization. Goals and considered elderly. The elderly population is a key cost driver for inmate healthcare. • Average monthly visits to chronic care clinics (CCCs). This measure serves as both a cost indicator as well as an indicator of the general health and demographics of

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

uses a log transformation, quarterly data and two explanatory variables: wage and business net income and Pennsylvania new car and light truck registrations. Motor and non-motor model projections are gross of any transfers, which are deducted from projections to derive Fees: Fees vary depending on the vehicle type and weight. Two of the most common fees are passenger cars at $38 and motorcycles at $20. Registration fees for trucks and truck tractors range from $64 to $2,326 (depending on weight

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

uses a log transformation, quarterly data and two explanatory variables: wage and business net income and Pennsylvania new car and light truck registrations. Motor and non-motor model projections are gross of any transfers, which are deducted from projections to derive Fees: Fees vary depending on the vehicle type and weight. Two of the most common fees are passenger cars at $37 and motorcycles at $19. These fees will increase to $38 and $20 respectively, effective July 1, 2019. Registration fees for

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

2% Amusements-Gaming 3.9 0.0 -56.4 -54.8% 1.5 -1.3 -70.7 -59.1 Personal Care-Laundry 1.2 -3.1 -54.8 -43.0 3.0 -4.2 -64.7 -56.5 Dentist Offices 1.3 -2.6 -55.1 -29.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Child Care 3.1 -0.4 -33.1 -29.0 2.5 0.8 -43.5 -28.3 Employment Services -0.1

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NFIB_Feb_2024.pdf

Levels Expansion (000s) • Social Assistance* +32 (most is elderly-disabled services) • Warehouse-Storage +23 • Comp System Design +10 • Home Health Care* +9 Contraction (000s) • Nursing Home* -17 • Full Serve Restaurant -13 • Retail Sales -12 Slide 3 Feb 2024 Economic Forum 5 to be sustained • Energy deflation since June 2022 • Gasoline, utility bills down (natural gas) • Durable goods deflation in December • Used cars down -12% since June 2022 • Medical care down -2% since Feb 2023 Slide 5 Feb 2024 Economic Forum 0.90

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

It found that nursing home prices between 2005 and 2010 generally increased much faster than the overall cost of medical care and consumer inflation. In 2018, the national median cost for a private room in a nursing home was $275 per day, or $100,375 per year. Long-term care is not covered by Medicare and cost increases are absorbed by private wealth or state Medicaid programs. Student Debt Cancellation

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

of Labor Statistics, non-seasonally adjusted. Recent Rapid Acceleration of Inflation March 31, 2022 13 Very High (Feb 22) Used Cars +42.7% Gasoline +31.6% Energy +25.1% New Cars +22.2% Relatively Low (Feb 22) Medical Care -0.2% Education-Comm +1.3% Rent Primary Res +4.2% -5%

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

are projected to increase FY 2022-23 CNIT revenues by $38.4 million. Sales and Use Tax Person-to-Person Car Sharing (Act 53) The act provides consistency between traditional vehicle rentals and those rented via a peer-to-peer agree- ments by specifying that peer-to-peer car sharing is also subject to sales and use tax (SUT). This provision is effective January 1, 2023 and is projected

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MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf

to reduce FY 2023-24 table games tax revenues by $5.0 million. Personal Income Tax Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Program (Act 34) The act expands the refundable PIT credit for eligible taxpayers who receive the federal child and depend- ent care tax credit. The credit is now equal to (1) 100% (formerly 30%) of the expenses incurred and claimed for purposes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

on in-person services such as hair/nail salons, travel and dining, to goods such as furniture, home and personal care products and motor vehicles. In 2020 Q3, consumers spent 7.2% less on services and 6.9% more on goods sales tax revenues, as many goods are taxed but services are generally exempt. Consumer Debt Increases from Prior Year, Credit Card Balances Continue to Decline The New York Federal Reserve Bank released consumer debt data for 2020 Q3. Pennsylvania consumer debt

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MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf

all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction, as well as the Attorney General, Auditor General, Lieutenant Governor, Ethics Commission, Health Care Cost Containment Council, PA Infrastructure Investment Authority, PA Port Authorities, Patient Safety Authority and the PA Gaming Control Board. All 2.25% Jan 2023 Step 17.1 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 49.3 101.8 159.1 210.7 Increase: Health Care Costs 5.2 10.7 16.2 Total Impact (All Funds) 49.3 107.0 169.8 227.0 $553

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

will not return in prior form Consumer spending is remarkably robust  Spending shifts to home remodeling, furniture/appliances, groceries, cars  But what impact from loss of $600 weekly FPUC payment? July revenues exceed expectation  Car sales tax breaks record | projected $2 billion shift largely captured August 19, 2020 1 Latest Real-Time PA Economic Data

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

Accommodation 58.4 35.1 -23.3 -39.9 Air Transportation 13.4 7.9 -5.5 -41.0 Personal Care - Dry Cleaning 70.9 49.6 -21.3 -30.0 Amusements-Gaming 61.5 48.0 -13.5 -22.0 Nursing and Residential Care 202.0 189.0 -13.0 -6.4 Expansion Couriers and Messengers (FedEx, UPS) 48.8 58.6 9.8

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

capita debt was down by $1,360 from the previous year. The reduction is due to lower mortgage and credit card balances. PA Student Loan and All-Other Debt Per Capita – Year Over Year Growth Rates “All Other” includes mortgage, credit card, auto and other miscellaneous debt. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. PA Dollar Change in Per Capita Total Debt

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

10%) -2.2% -5.7% 0.8% 5.5% 6.1% 6.3% 9.2% 8.9% 7.6% Credit Card (7%) 0.2% -8.2% -7.1% -1.8% -2.2% 2.3% 0.8% 5.5% 3.6% Home 67.5% 67.5% 67.8% 68.2% 69.1% n.a. Note: Other debt includes personal loans and credit cards for specific stores. Data pertain to debt at the end of the calendar year. Growth rates for 2016 based on

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

10%) -2.2% -5.7% 0.8% 5.5% 6.1% 6.3% 9.2% 8.9% 7.6% Credit Card (7%) 0.2% -8.2% -7.1% -1.8% -2.2% 2.3% 0.8% 5.5% 3.6% Home 67.5% 67.5% 67.8% 68.2% 69.1% n.a. Note: Other debt includes personal loans and credit cards for specific stores. Data pertain to debt at the end of the calendar year. Growth rates for 2016 based on

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

be acquired, held or disposed of by the fund or trust, or would cause a breach of the standard of care or fiduciary duty set forth in this part. (3) The following apply: (i) The sensitive investment or financial information excluded the value of an investment of the fund or trust and would not cause a breach of the standard of care or fiduciary duty set forth in this part; or (B) the entity in which the investment was made is liquidated

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

differing impacts on individual benefit recipients, using a non-proportional method for calculating a cost-of-living postretirement adjustment requires careful evaluation prior to implementation to ensure that the resulting distortion is both warranted and minimized. Actuarial Funding For Postretirement Adjustments the active members. Since it is not possible to accumulate the required financing before retirement in the case of mid-career benefit changes or ad hoc postretirement adjustments, actuarial funding provides for the total required financing for these changes to be

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_ Analysis_2020.pdf

under the Governor's jurisdiction during this time period will also apply to this unit." Since the biweekly employer health care contribution for most union-represented employees was set at $502 effective July 2020 and the biweekly contribution under this contract 0.2 5/ 0.2 0.2 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 Increase: Health Care Costs 6/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Impact (All Funds) 0.2 0.5 0.4

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Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf

2019 January 24, 2023 8 Number (000s) Percent Subsector Nov 2021 Nov 2022 Nov 2021 Nov 2022 Nursing and Residential Care -30 -26 -14.8% -12.7% Colleges and Universities -15 -18 -8.2 -10.1 Employment Services (temps) -4 -17 FY 21-22 $3.84 billion in federal funds transferred to General Fund ERC ~$57,000 per firm Consumer Credit Card Debt Explodes after Third EIP January 24, 2023 10 SNAP emergency allotments end Feb 2023 Student loans not repaid since

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

limit on interest deductions and the employee retention credit that are part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act.  The small business loans and grants are the projected share that Pennsylvania receives from the $349 billion set aside in the CARES Act. While the $349 billion is administered as a loan, the loans will be forgiven if used for eligible expenses

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

1.4 percent). The under- lying detail shows that the price of certain items like rent and medical care have in- creased at a faster pace than general inflation, while others have been more subdued or actually declined (gasoline). In order 1.8% Food at Home 18.6% 1.7% 26.4% 2.4% 15.4% 1.4% Medical Care 35.4% 3.1% 53.7% 4.4% 26.2% 2.4% Gasoline (all types) -11.0% -1.2% -0.5% -0

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

10 What Drives Increase in the Deficit? 12.Feb.2015 Non-Recurring Savings, Shifts and Revenues Delay payments to managed care organizations $394 Transfer tobacco settlement investments to PSERS $225 Total Savings $619 Funding Shifts (to Lottery and Tobacco Funds) $332 and Utility -0.7% 0.1% -3.1% 6.0% Furnishings -2.2% -2.9% -1.9% 4.1% Transportation Car, Public Transit, Other 2.8% 0.6% 2.0% 9.5% Gasoline -3.8% -2.7% -21.5% 4.5%

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

3 9.1 All Other Sectors 12.0 5.5 8.8 17.3 Note: All Other Healthcare includes ambulatory care, hospitals and nursing/residential care facilities. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment. The Minimum Wage Proposal Increase minimum wage from

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platt ppt.pdf

Utilities Farm Ag. Services Railroads Mining Military Arts, Entertainment, & Rec. Federal Civilian Govt Educational Services State and Local Govt Health care Dollar Changes in PA Wages 2008Q2-2009Q3 (in millions of $) -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,00020,000 Entertainment, & Rec. Other Services Accomodations & Food… Transportation &… Educational Services Mining Administrative & Waste Wholesale Trade Professional Services Durable Manufacturing Management Health care Dollar Changes in PA Wages 2009Q3-2011Q3 (in millions of $) www.bea.gov Pennsylvania Wages 13 -4,000 -2,000

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf

April 27, 2021 12 DHS Metric Highlights (cont.) Child welfare services shift towards prevention services instead of out-of-home care ▪ The foster care rate has declined from 6.1 (FY 15-16) to 5.3 (FY 19-20) ▪ Children in congregate care has

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

The Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission (JCJC) and its members are responsible for: advising juvenile courts concerning the proper care and maintenance of delinquent children; establishing standards governing ad- ministrative practices and judicial procedures in juvenile courts; establishing personnel practices and stand- JCJC carries out the following duties: (1) advise juvenile court judges in all matters relating to the proper care and maintenance of delinquent children; (2) examine the administrative methods and judicial procedure used in the 67 juvenile courts throughout the Commonwealth

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

end products and services. While our goal is to drive improvements in outcome measures that our custom- ers care about, many current metrics are focused on cycle times for specific sub-processes that by themselves may not be appropriate to report DGS is able to minimize costs by selling used vehicles if there is high demand in the used car market. Recommended: DGS rental rate versus commercial rate. This review recommends that DGS develop a meaningful performance metric that would allow

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf

Vehicle Registration Fees: Fees vary depending on the vehicle type and weight. Two of the most common fees are passenger cars at $39 and motorcycles at $21. These fees will increase to $45 and $24 respectively, effective July 1, 2023. Registration to $180 per regis- tration depending on truck weight. Exemptions Exemptions from vehicle registration fees include certain farm equipment, golf carts, mobile homes, vehi- cles moved solely by human or animal power and certain construction equipment. Exemptions from com- mercial operator

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

Vehicle Registration Fees: Fees vary depending on the vehicle type and weight. Two of the most common fees are passenger cars at $39 and motorcycles at $21. Registration fees for trucks and truck tractors range from $67 to $2,417 (depending to $180 per regis- tration depending on truck weight. Exemptions Exemptions from vehicle registration fees include certain farm equipment, golf carts, mobile homes, vehi- cles moved solely by human or animal power and certain construction equipment. Exemptions from com- mercial operator

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

Vehicle Registration Fees: Fees vary depending on the vehicle type and weight. Two of the most common fees are passenger cars at $38 and motorcycles at $20. These fees will increase to $39 and $21 respectively, effective July 1, 2021. Registration to $180 per regis- tration depending on truck weight. Exemptions Exemptions from vehicle registration fees include certain farm equipment, golf carts, mobile homes, vehi- cles moved solely by human or animal power and certain construction equipment. Exemptions from com- mercial operator

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

12.0%) and building materials and supplies (24.6%) recorded strong growth relative to June 2019. However, health and personal care (-0.5%) and clothing and accessories (-25.6%) spending recorded declines. The U.S. Census Bureau also released the advance in consumer spending. Automotive and other vehicle dealers (14.4%), building materials and supplies (23.4%) and health and personal care (7.8%) reported strong growth. Food service (-13.7%) and clothing (-12.0%) remain weak relative to September 2019. Pennsylvania

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

largest increase since June 2008 (5.1%). The increase was due to strong gains related to gasoline (40.0%), used cars and trucks (45.3%), and new vehicles (18.7%). A WSJ article noted how strong vehicle sales and the lack of inventory are driving up the price of new and used cars. Household furnishings and supplies (11.0%) and apparel (6.9%) also recorded strong gains. The All Items less Shelter CPI-

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MER-2014-08.pdf

from 2007 to 2012 in two items that comprise approximately 50 percent of the category: housing and utilities and health care. Growth in spending on housing and utilities grew at an average rate of 4.2 percent annually during this period the housing boom and bust was much less dramatic compared to other areas in the U.S. Spending on health care was slightly higher in Pennsylvania (3.8 percent) compared to the U.S. (3.7 percent). August 2014 Item 2002‐

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf

6% New Vehicles 2.7% 2.7% 18.7% 24.2% 22.2% 10.2% 5.5% 5.7% Medical Care 7.8% 4.0% 2.8% 0.8% -0.2% 4.1% 6.4% 4.9% All Energy 6.9% includes local SDs) 708 678 -31 -4.3 All Other 271 289 18 6.5 Subsector Detail Nursing and Residential Care 202 175 -27 -13.5 Full Service Restaurants 195 176 -19 -9.9 Employment Services 179 169 -11 -6.0

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf

and Freddie Mac. U.S. Checking Savings Balance Change Payroll Jobs (000s) Change All Jobs (000s) Auto Loan Debt Credit Card Debt % All Debt 90+ days late U.S. Effective Credit Card Rate CPI-U - All Items (100%) Shelter (37.8%) Food-Beverage (13.0%) Energy (6.9%) Pennsylvania Economic Trends Latest

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

that affects economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report are made by the IFO based on data from the U.S. Census 1964). The increase in this age cohort and the next age cohort implies strong demand for healthcare and long- term care services moving forward. ▪ The elderly cohort (age 80+) increased 0.1% per annum from 2010 to 2020 and is projected

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

economic growth, elementary and secondary students who require educational services and elderly residents who may require long-term care. All population projections contained in this report are made by the IFO based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau and increase in this age cohort and the next age cohort implies strong demand for healthcare and long-term care services moving forward.  The elderly cohort (age 80+) increased 0.2 percent per annum from 2015 to 2020 and is projected

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Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf

makes no policy recommendations. It hires people on the basis of their expertise without regard to political affiliation. The agency carefully considers whether potential analysts can perform objective analysis, regardless of their own personal views. CBO uses a common set of particularly in the second half of the projection period. The aging of the population and the rising costs of health care boost primary deficits; net interest outlays, which double as a percentage of GDP over the projection period, further increase total

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

news in the bank for FY 2015 and 2016 that will drive contributions up. Plans and govts should evaluate risk carefully, with an eye toward reducing risk. 2 Liabilities and normal costs in this presentation are based on BEA/FRB estimates Given that plans take risk but current and future stakeholders in govt bear risk, it is crucial to analyze risk carefully and disclose it to the right audiences. •Plans and govts should evaluate risk and risk tolerance carefully, with an eye

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2024_Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_Final.pdf

Growth Philly CPI-U • April uptick due to Transportation and Energy • Core excludes Food and Energy | uptick due to Rent, Car Repair and Insurance • Inflation to remain elevated in 2024 due to (1) lagging Shelter component (2) lack of Energy deflation 0% -7.7% 6.2% Consumer Debt PA Auto Loans 3.3% 3.5% 3.8% 0.4% -- PA Credit Cards 13.2% 14.2% 12.0% 10.0% -- PA Mortgage 3.2% 1.7% -1.4% 0.7% -- US Credit

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2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

CTC/Rent Assist includes P-EBT, Sick and Family Leave ($0.4 billion, self-employed) and expanded Child and Dependent Care ($0.5 billion) refundable tax credits. Credits were attributable to tax year 2021 but received as a refund in CY 7 Change From Dec 2019 Annual Share of Dec 21 Dec 22 Gain Dec 19 Jobs Contraction Nursing and Residential Care -32 -25 7 87.8% Full-Service Restaurants -30 -17 13 91.5 Employment Services (temps) -17 -15 2 88

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) pub- lishes quarterly tabulations on average consumer debt levels. The debt includes auto, credit card, mortgage and student loan debt and corresponds to all individuals who have a credit card. Although high debt levels may in- hibit consumer spending, an individual’s ability to ser- vice that debt provides a

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

to the FPL or the federal free and reduced-price lunch program guidelines (FRL). Five states (Arizona, Georgia, Montana, South Car- olina and Utah) have no income limitation for scholarship recipients. Arizona has four distinct schol- arship tax credits. ▪ Most states the private school more than one year. If more than one year, if they would remain for their entire academic career. That is a crucial assumption for an analysis that seeks to quantify the potential for improved outcomes for switchers over

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

the relative level of pollutant reduction due 43 “Options to Address Nutrient Management Pollution from Agricultural Drainage,” Bryant and Goldman-Carter, Na- tional Wildlife Federation (March 2016). 44 “Evaluating Agricultural Best Management Practices in Tile-Drained Subwatersheds of the Mackinaw River 2025,” Maryland Department of the Environment (August 2019). “Options to Address Nutrient Management Pollution from Agricultural Drainage,” Bryant and Goldman- Carter, National Wildlife Federation (March 2016). Appendix | Page 32 “Phase 3 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Implementation Plan,” Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

may be required to stay near the transplant hospital for a period immediately after discharge if follow up care is required. These pre- and post-donation visits can increase the financial burden on a donor. Although some studies attempt to accurately the transplant hospital and how long a donor is required to stay near the hospital for follow-up care.  Only Pennsylvania has a living donor tax incentive that is limited to employers. Arkansas and Lou- isiana have an employer credit

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

transportation and warehous- ing, information, and professional services). The wholesale trade, retail trade, finance and insurance, and health care sectors rounded out the next 20 percent of awards (25 percent of jobs created). The remaining sectors comprised the last 10 percent 797 8,858 56 Administrative and Support Services 996 1,542 61 Education Services 128 256 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 2,085 2,315 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 410 897 26,840 $55,031 Note: thousands of

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Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf

60.0 Neighborhood Assistance Programs 18.0 18.0 33.6 35.9 36.0 36.0 Child and Dependent Care Enhancement -- -- -- -- 25.4 83.3 Entertainment and Economic Enhancement 5.6 4.0 4.0 3.6 24.0 24 and $24 million for the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program. • Taxpayers claimed $25.4 million for the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit in FY 2022-23. The program was recently expanded beginning in tax year 2023. The amount claimed

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State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf

2 billion of refundable credits paid to Pennsylvania residents, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Additional Child Care Tax Credit. It also excludes $2.9 billion of Premium and Advance Premium Tax Credits for qualified recipients enrolled under the Affordable Care Act. 14 Although reported on the federal income tax return, payments for Self-Employment Contributions Act (SECA) are not included

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

of refundable credits paid to Pennsylvania residents, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Additional Child Care Tax Credit. It also excludes $3.8 billion of Premium and Advance Premium Tax Credits for qualified recipients enrolled under the Affordable Care Act. Largely due to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, the ratio of federal income tax to personal income

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

list the cost to provide retail bags as their fourth largest operating cost, after electricity, payroll and credit card fees. Consumers •A recent survey of Pennsylvanians found that approximately 70 percent of shoppers would not be willing to pay for a the fee, the San Francisco Office of Economic Analysis estimated that the LWPB ban reduced the demand for car- ryout bags from 150 million LWPBs (2007) to 134 million paper/compostable bags (2011), a 10 percent reduction. 27 Fees Research suggests

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf

the minimum wage initiative (increase to $15 per hour) results in higher costs for DHS as reflected in the Child Care Services (+$3.1 million) and Child Care Assistance (+$2.3 million) line items. DHS informed the IFO that any public assistance savings resulting from the higher minimum

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

students in 45 states are eligible for free tuition or loan forgiveness programs targeting public service. The most commonly eligible careers are health care professionals. These incentive programs may be funded by private or public sources. See Table 5 for an overview of the

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

Non-prescription drugs (e.g., pain relievers, vitamins)  Personal hygiene (toiletries, diapers)  Newly taxed services:  Certain health care (for-profit nursing homes, day care)  Recreation (movies, bowling, amusement parks)  Basic cable  Personal (barber, beauty salons)  Intrastate transport of persons (taxis

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf

the age 21+ population has access to medical marijuana (441,000 active patient medical marijuana certifications and 9,200 active carded caregivers). 3 In addition, Pennsylvania sales of medical marijuana are exempt from sales tax and subject to a 5% excise all other); (5) gambling dealers; (6) hairdressers, hairstylists and cosmetologists; (7) shampooers; (8) baggage porters and bellhops and (9) personal care and service workers (all other). See discussion on tipped workers on next page. 14 The CPS is jointly sponsored by

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RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdf

114 $167 $223 Wage Impact 55,556 $3,370 $209 $363 $503 $650 Benefits 3 $98 $170 $236 $305 Health Care 4 $78 $163 $191 $220 Total Impact $385 $696 $930 $1,175 Preliminary Impact of Collective Bargaining Agreements Note: Dollars data include most agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction, as well as the Attorney General, Auditor General, Ethics Commission, Health Care Cost Containment Council, Pennsylvania Infrastructure Investment Authority and the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board. Law enforcement (e.g., State Police) covered

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RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdf

unpaid rent. The initial moratorium was extended several times to August 2021. A summary is as follows: ▪ March 2020: The CARES Act included a renter eviction moratorium through July 2020. A state eviction moratorium was enacted concurrently through August 2020. ▪ September county that received assistance through September 2022. 2 The Pennsylvania Housing Finance Agency (PHFA) administered an additional relief program using CARES Act funds that delivered $54.4 million in rental assistance to over 10,000 landlords (16,500 renters) in 2020

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RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf

billion, includes state amounts above “normal” payments), economic impact payments (EIPs, $23 billion), emergency SNAP benefits ($4 billion), expanded child care tax credits (CTC, $3 billion), Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans to certain businesses ($4 billion) and non-profits ($1 billion), and distributions from the Provider Relief Fund ($1 billion) to hospitals and health care providers. 2,3 The analysis removes these stimulus funds from the data for Figure 2 to measure underlying income gains

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RB-2016-02.pdf

in the same industry in order to identify speci Ðic training and skill gaps, connects young people to high‐priority careers, aligns educational and training cur‐ riculum with industry demands, addresses recruitment and retention of workers, develops career ladders and highlights best practices. Keystone Works $500 $100 Provides business‐driven training opportunities for eligi‐ ble unemployment compensation claimants

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

Legal List, section 7302(b) provides a Prudent Person Rule, which also provides guidance on the degree of judgment and care required in determining quality, liquidity, and return. Section 7302(b) provides that: Any investment shall be an authorized investment if purchased or retained in the exercise of that degree of judgment and care, under the circumstances then prevailing, which men of prudence, discretion and intelligence exercise in the management of their own affairs

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

state gov’ts unlikely to contribute. o Federal – debt ceiling debate, continuing sequester. o State and Local – pensions and health care benefits. o Monetary Policy - pull back to start soon. 24 . Sept . 2013 4 Contributions to U.S. Real Growth 2012 2013-14 to FY 2018-19. o Demographics, Economics, Expenditures, Revenues. o Special Reports. o Last Year: Pensions and Affordable Care Act. 24 . Sept . 2013 23 Property Tax Reform Last year, IFO analyzes HB and SB 1776. o Finds $1.5

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PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf

Management (HQs) +14 Social Assistance Services +13 Computer System Design and Related +8 Truck Transportation +3 Nursing Home and Residential Care -27 Full-Service Restaurants -19 Local Gov’t: Municipals -11 Colleges and Universities -9 All Other -2 Total Payroll Jobs high ratio = high rank Legalized gaming, high tax rates on slots and table games High motor fuel taxes, but low car registration fees and taxes 2023 State Motor Fuel Taxes (cents/gallon) April 19, 2023 14 Top 5 - Gasoline Rate Rank

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

continue to lag.  Limited borrowing by PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. Recent PA Economic Trends Recent Economic Trends June 7, 2017 11 2016.2 2016.3 2016 2015 2016 2017.1 Auto Loans (10%) 6.6% 1.6% 8.3% 8.6% 5.2% 6.0% Credit Card (7%) -1.8% -2.2% 0.0% 5.2% 3.5% 4.3% All Mortgage (66%) -1.7% -4.1%

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

25 -4.4% -3.9% -5.5% Employment Services (temps) -30 -21 -22 -26.1% -18.3% -18.4% Personal Care-Dry Cleaner -46 -22 -20 -64.7% -31.0% -28.3% Clothing and Accessory Stores -27 -21 -19 -65.1% -50.5% -48.0% Federal Government 2 3 9 2.5% 3.4% 8.9% Home Health Care 0 3 3 0.1% 3.7% 3.8% Retail – Building/Garden Supply -4 1 3 -9.1% 2.3%

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PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf

management and disaster preparedness for essential records. Since FY 2018-19, the State Archives issues annual Historical and Archival Records Care (HARC) grants to eligible historical societies, local governments, universities and other entities. In FY 2020- 21, 31 recipients received grants exhibits. There are currently over nine million objects, artifacts and documents pre- served by The State Museum. The Curatorial Division cares for 500,000 historical artifacts and 100,000 natural history specimens, as well as roughly nine million archaeological artifacts. Museum

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

funding allocations by working with all 67 counties, more than 800 public and non-profit private schools and residential child care institutions, and more than 2,500 local food banks, pantries, and other non-profit partners who make up the state pound is largely due to a change in the mix of food procured using state funds pro- vided by the CARES Act. As directed by the General Assembly, half of the funds allocated to PASS in FY 2020-21 were spent

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

provides effective and reliable radio communications across Troops A-T and interagency partners. STARNet includes mobile radios installed in trooper cars and portable radios worn on belts, which operate on a statewide infrastructure of radio towers, collectively known as a land 2,634 1,593 # PSP community outreach initiatives 3,868 3,462 3,856 5,578 5,939 4,020 Career and recruitment 269 245 255 244 374 159 College/university/education 87 91 87 111 104 30 Camp Cadet (hours

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

23 -4.4% -3.9% -4.9% Employment Services (temps) -30 -21 -22 -26.1% -18.3% -17.3% Personal Care-Dry Cleaner -46 -22 -22 -64.7% -31.0% -30.8% Clothing and Accessory Stores -27 -21 -19 -65.1% -50.5% -47.3% Federal Government 2 3 4 2.5% 3.4% 8.9% Home Health Care 0 3 3 0.1% 3.7% 3.8% Retail – Building/Garden Supply -4 1 2 -9.1% 2.3%

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

195 127 -69 -35% Transit and Ground Passenger 39 27 -12 -31% Employment Services (temps) 117 96 -21 -18% Personal Care-Dry Cleaning 71 59 -12 -17% Nursing and Residential Care 202 183 -20 -10% Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Figures for January 2021 are preliminary. YOY is year-over-

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

home. Mortgage balances delin- quent for 30 days or more fell to 1.0%—the lowest level on record. Credit card balances and credit limits each grew over the prior year, 6.6% and 5.7%, respectively. Credit card balances more than 90 days delinquent grew 6.6% across all ages over the prior year, with significant growth in

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

growth of 5.1% in 2018, with the strongest growth in the Mountain and Western re- gions. For Pennsylvanians, health care and housing consumption were the two largest contributors to the growth in total personal consumption expenditures. Notably, Commonwealth residents spent more for health care ($8,073 per capita) than housing and utilities ($7,376 per capita) in 2018. Pennsylvania Ranks 2nd in Nation for

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

CPI-U accelerated in August to 2.3%. The trend is largely due to housing (3.2%) and medi- cal care (4.1%) inflation.  Recent data show strong wage growth for the U.S. (5.4%) and Pennsylvania (5.0% a weak June in the average. The 12-month growth rate remains steady, but many analysts expect minimal growth in car and truck sales for the rest of the year.  The 3-month PIT withholding growth rate is consistent with

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

of medical and sick leave. Opioid abuse in Pennsylvania was estimated to trigger at least $874 million in additional health care costs annually. 5 However, a more recent study by Pew Charitable Trusts notes the positive relation between opioid abuse and 27, 2017. 4 Alan B. Krueger, “Where Have All the Workers Gone?” October 4, 2016. 5 Matrix Global Advisors, “Health Care Costs from Opioid Abuse: A State-by-State Analysis,” April 2015. 6 The Pew Charitable Trusts, “With Opioid Crisis, a

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

and an extra PIT withholding due date in FY 2020-21. New Round of Federal Stimulus March 31, 2021 5 CARES CAA ARP Notes Payments to Individuals State Unemployment Compensation $5.2 $1.6 -- Federal Pandemic Unemploy Comp (FPUC) 16.2 Other Support 4.7 0.8 3.3 Total 34.1 17.5 30.9 Note: Figures in dollar billions. CARES is Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act of 2020. CAA is Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2020. ARP is American

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

was also much higher than February (1.0%), and the acceleration was due to strong gains related to energy, medical care and prices for other goods and services. The All Items Less Energy index increased by 2.7%. However, the All 1.87 Number of Home Sales 6 3.5% -2.2% -11.5% -1.3% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -32.9% -27.6% -35.1% 23.5% 165.9% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 5.1% -1.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf

to the food and beverage (12.9% of total CPI), fuels- utilities (4.9%) and all other (e.g., medical care, services and clothing, 31.8%) components. The February data also show that inflation is becoming more broad-based. For example 4.24 Number of Home Sales 6 -1.3% 0.0% -1.4% 6.8% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 16.7% 53.9% n.a. n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 4.6% 9.0%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

of Chicago released a working paper that measured the effects of COVID-19 Economic Impact Payments on consumer spending. Debit card spending patterns were tracked for a sample of consumers (approximately 16,000 recipients) after receipt of the $1,200 (or period, consumer spending patterns appeared to return to normal. The study estimated that the $296 billion of payments from the CARES Act will increase consumer spending by $138 billion, assuming an average MPC. The study notes that if the same type

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf

over the coming year. Row 5 shows the YOY growth in U.S. purchases of durable goods (e.g., appliances, cars). Continuous and strong demand for those products created bottlenecks and shortages that resulted in price pressures. Corporate domestic profits (row 4.49 Number of Home Sales 6 0.0% -1.4% 5.5% -2.6% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 25.4% 18.1% 16.2% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 5.1% 8.1%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

Federal Reserve Bank of New York released household debt and credit data for 2020 Q2. Total household debt and credit card balances both declined from the previous quarter, $34 billion (-0.2%) and $76 billion (-8.5%), respectively. This is the largest drop in household debt since 2013 Q2, and the first quarterly decline since 2014 Q2. The drop in credit card balances is the steepest quarterly decline in the history of the data. The data also show that 61% of mortgages

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

and Utility ‐0.7% 0.1% ‐3.1% 6.0% Furnishings ‐2.2% ‐2.9% ‐1.9% 4.1% Transportation Car, Public Transit, Other 2.8% 0.6% 2.0% 9.5% Gasoline ‐3.8% ‐2.7% ‐21.5% 4.5% Medical Care 2.2% 2.5% 3.5% 7.1% All Other 2.3% 1.8% 2.7% 19.8% All Items

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MER-2014-05.pdf

of size. Professional and business services (4.2% growth in 2013:3 and 3.6% growth in 2013:4), health care and social ser‐ vices (3.9% in 2013:3 and 4.0% in 2013:4) and wholesale trade (4.0% 3 3.5 Professional and business services 5.9 7.2 2.5 3.7 4.2 3.6 Health care and social assistance 4.0 4.5 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.0 Wholesale trade 6.7 4

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MER-2014-02.pdf

debt levels by more than $1,000 (‐2.6 percent) through 2013. (See table.) Large reductions in mortgage and credit card debt were partially offset by gains in student loan and auto debt. Some analysts were surprised that this deleveraging process consumer spending. February 2014 Per Capita Debt Levels ‐ Pennsylvania Consumers 1 thousands of dollars Credit Student Annual Change Year Auto Card Mortgage 2 Loan 3 Total Dollar Percent 2003 $2,710 $2,820 $18,090 $3,210 $26,830 2004 2

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Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf

000s) Full-Service Restaurants 200 170 -30 -15.0% Employment Services (temps) 116 88 -28 -23.9% Nursing and Residential Care 204 178 -26 -12.8% Amusements-Gaming 92 74 -18 -19.9% Accommodation 69 51 -18 -26.4% Limited-Service 2% Services to Buildings-Dwellings 85 74 -11 -12.9% Transit and Ground Passenger 25 15 -10 -38.2% Child Care 48 41 -7 -13.5% Jobs Expansion (000s) Transportation and Warehouse 93 106 13 14.3% Couriers and Messengers 35

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

CBO’s revenue forecasting record since 1982  A report on how CBO’s projections of subsidies under the Affordable Care Act compared with actual outcomes  A report on how CBO’s projections of outlays for 2017 compared with actual the Blue Chip survey of 50 private-sector forecasters  CBO compared its estimates of subsidies provided under the Affordable Care Act with those of government actuaries, the RAND Corporation, and the Lewin Group  CBO compared its estimates of the

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jackson ppt.pdf

boost. • State and local budget crunch (reduced revenues, more need for many services, can’t put it on a credit card) adding to job losses, among other things. PA Faring Better than US During and Post-Recession 7 © 2012, IHS Inc research capabilities should help to attract employers. • Construction jobs will get a boost from (eventual) housing recovery. • Professional services, health-care services continue to provide jobs growth. • Public-sector employment levels off at state and local level as budget improves. • Federal

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IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdf

Accommodation 58.4 35.1 -23.3 -39.9 Air Transportation 13.4 7.9 -5.5 -41.0 Personal Care - Dry Cleaning 70.9 49.6 -21.3 -30.0 Amusements-Gaming 61.5 48.0 -13.5 -22.0 Nursing and Residential Care 202.0 189.0 -13.0 -6.4 Expansion Couriers and Messengers (FedEx, UPS) 48.8 58.6 9.8

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

July 2017)  Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimate (August 2017)  IFO State Government Committee Hearing (August 2017)  Child Care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania (September 2017)  PDA Wage Contract Analysis (September 2017)  School Property Tax and 1.5% Gasoline -4.1% -27.2% -11.3% 13.2% 6.7% 9.3% 6.0% -5.2% Medical Care 2.4% 2.6% 3.8% 2.5% 2.8% 4.3% 3.6% 2.8% Financial Metrics S&P

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

7 Auto Loan Debt -1.7% 1.9% 2.6% 2.5% 12.7% 9.9% 8.9% 8 Credit Card Debt -8.2% -8.9% -11.6% -14.3% -6.2% -2.8% 3.1% 9 Home Mortgage Debt 2 72% 65% 68% 68% CHC ED visits per 1,000 member months 1 -- -- 32.5 70.1 77.6 -- Child Care Works % enrolled in STARS 3/4 facilities 31% 33% 36% 36% 41% 42% Children's uninsured rate (U.S. Census

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

4.9 Transport 9.2 Construction 7.0 All Other 11.1 Manufacturing 6.3 Healthcare 27.2 Home Health Care +4.5 | +5.9 Services for Elderly-Disabled +10.4 | +11.1 Food Service +6.2 | +5.1 Warehouse, Truck PDE $47m  IFO assumes $279m additional DHS supplemental One-time measures impact FY 20-21 expenditures ($811m)  Managed care shift (+$216m) | JUA Transfer ($200m)  Return of PlanCon costs to General Fund (+$198m) November 14, 2019 14 Revenues Through

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FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf

borrowers substitute increased private debt for paused public debt…. (b)orrowers used the new liquidity to increase borrowing on credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans rather than avoid delinquencies. (Dinerstein et al., 2023) Those borrowers may now be worse off ▪ Distressed borrowers whose loans were paused had 12.3% more credit card debt than those whose loans weren’t paused, and auto loans rose 4.6%. (Chava et al., 2023) ▪ …distressed borrowers

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf

November 15, 2023 1 Main Themes Demographics ▪ Retirement wave is largely done ▪ Attention shifts to age 75+ and long-term care Economics ▪ Not a forecast, a controlled simulation | PA economy reverts to long-term growth Revenues ▪ Corporate profits still at very 1% 2.2% 5.3% 5.3% 30 Year Mortgage 2.8% 3.1% 6.9% 7.6% -- Effective Credit Card 16.4% 17.1% 18.4% 22.8% -- Note/Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Potential Under

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

4% 5.2% -- Per Capita Consumer Debt Auto Loans 7.6% 5.4% 3.1% 2.0% 5.1% -- Credit Card 3.0% 3.9% 4.5% 6.9% 1.2% -- All Mortgage 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% -1.1% Safety 12 Health Total 776 Women, Infants and Children (WIC) 321 HIV Surveillance, Prevention & Trtmnt. 164 DCED Ensure Access to Care 127 Community & Citizen Development 331 Disease Prevention and Outreach 114 Local Infrastructure 89 Public Health & Emerg. Medical Serv. 72 Business

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

highest since 1998 Home Values +10.8% highest since 2005 Sales Tax Revenues +5.4% online sales tax doubles Credit Card Debt -11.6% 70% of impact payments saved or pay down debt S&P 500 Index +12.4% New Round of Federal Stimulus March 11, 2021 5 CARES CAA ARP Notes Payments to Individuals State Unemployment Compensation $5.2 $1.6 -- CAA is full year amount Federal Pandemic

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Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdf

to 2023 Q3 February 7, 2024 Page 2 Representative Delozier asked if there are additional data on who has credit card and other consumer debt. She also inquired if those that paid down debt during the pandemic are the same borrowers 1%, 6.9% The spike in hardship withdrawals in 2020 was due to penalty-free distributions temporarily allowed under the CARES Act. As shown, more than three times as many participants used a hardship withdrawal in 2023 than 2018. Chairman Grove

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

income. A hypothetical graduate with a monthly mortgage of $750, a monthly student loan payment of $300, a monthly credit card and/or car payment totaling $200 and a monthly income of $3,000 (before tax) would have a “back-end” ratio of .42

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WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf

millions. Other category includes Judicial Services, Social Services, Information Technology, Tax Reductions, Water Preservation and Reclamation, Housing, Planning Initiatives, and Career and Technical Centers. Source: PUC. Southwest County Disbursements July 14, 2020 5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Washington $5.7

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WC-2019-UFCW.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 0.9 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 2.6 5.3 8.2 10.7 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.6 1.3 2.0 Total Impact (All Funds) 2.6 5.9 9.5 12.7 $30

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WC-2019-SEIU.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 8.7 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 25.6 52.4 81.3 106.8 Increase: Health Care Costs 3.9 8.0 12.2 Total Impact (All Funds) 25.6 56.3 89.3 119.0 $290

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WC-2019-AFSCME.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 24.5 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 71.3 146.8 228.9 302.3 Increase: Health Care Costs 12.6 26.0 39.4 Total Impact (All Funds) 71.3 159.4 254.9 341.7 $827

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2024.pdf

00% October 2026 GPI 0 2.25% Jan 2027 Step 0 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 1 1 2 2 Increase: Health Care Costs 0 1 1 1 Total Impact (All Funds) 1 2 3 3 $9 4 Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the

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UGSOA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2021.pdf

25% January 2023 Step 0.1 6/ 0.3 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 0.2 0.6 0.8 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.1 0.2 0.2 Total Impact (All Funds) 0.3 0.8 1.0 $2.1 6

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UFCW_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

00% July 2026 GPI 2 2.25% Jan 2027 Step 1 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 5 9 12 16 Increase: Health Care Costs 2 5 5 6 Total Impact (All Funds) 7 13 18 22 $60 4 Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the

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TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf

au- thority to rural funds. The investment capital must be deployed to small businesses that are in agricultural, manufacturing, health care, technology or transportation sectors. The rural funds raise capital from inves- tors in exchange for tax credits. The state tax

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TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf

at the plant) for the chemical manufacturing industry (6.08) is high compared to other industries such as home health care services (1.39) or public education (1.42). 16 This is due to (1) a clustering effect from related upstream

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TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf

23 coal refuse sites across the state at an overall cost of $41.0 million. The Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006 requires AML grants to be distributed to states and territories in annual payments based on fees collected

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

this analysis assumes that state discretionary spending is reduced and those monies would have been spent on education and health care. This economic offset is also reflected in the next four lines. 19 20 Line 15 A GDP (also referred to

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

analysis assumes that state discretionary spend- ing is reduced and those monies would have been spent on education and health care. 21 The alternative use of private funds assumes that one-third of the incentivized private investment would have been spent

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf

is reduced and the monies used to finance the tax credit would have otherwise been spent on education and health care. 24 19 Although the tax credit offsets roughly 3 to 4 percent of labor compensation costs, it can be claimed

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

This analysis assumes that state discretionary spending is reduced and those monies would have been spent on education and health care. This economic offset is also included in the next four lines. 24 Line 17 A GDP (also referred to as

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

issued by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation found that a broadband infrastructure incentive should (1) be a “carefully structured” one-time subsidy, (2) incorporate a reverse auction for the determination of funded projects, (3) focus on the lowest cost projects

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

Management 0.2 0.3 0.2 61 Educational Services 0.0 0.2 0.2 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 0.3 0.3 0.2 Other 0.1 0.0 0.2 16.9 15.0 14.7

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Tax_Modernization_Mar_2024.pdf

Tax Forgiveness ~$220 Two-thirds to <$20k taxable income Resident Credit ~$500 Tax paid to other states Child and Dependent Care ~$83 Recently expanded, no data yet Note: millions of dollars. Follow us on X (@ind_fisc_office) or sign up on the

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Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdf

lives from the transplant hospital and how long a donor is required to stay near the hospital for follow-up care. State Comparison ▪ Twenty other states offer a tax incentive to mitigate the financial burden of living organ or bone marrow

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

slots. For Pennsylvania, net lottery proceeds are used to fund programs for elderly residents such as long-term care and transportation. The tax data used for this report span two fiscal years: state-level data are from Fiscal Year Ending (FYE

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

Current law 28.95 31.95 31.34 30.46 TCJA 16.42 23.58 24.34 21.30 Health care and social assistance Current law 29.42 32.40 31.57 29.54 TCJA 16.59 24.04 24.76

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SEIU_HCPA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

00% July 2026 GPI 3 2.25% Jan 2027 Step 2 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 9 15 22 28 Increase: Health Care Costs 2 3 4 5 Total Impact (All Funds) 10 18 26 33 $88 4 Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the

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SEIU Local 668 UC Referees Analysis- 2020.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 0.1 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total Impact (All Funds) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 $2

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SEIU Healthcare Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 1.5 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 4.3 8.9 13.8 18.2 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.5 1.0 1.5 Total Impact (All Funds) 4.3 9.3 14.8 19.7 $48

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf

all other); (5) gambling dealers; (6) hairdressers, hairstylists and cosmetologists; (7) shampooers; (8) baggage porters and bellhops and (9) personal care and service workers (all other). 8 The CPS is jointly sponsored by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

costs in the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) (+$2.6 million); County Child Welfare (+$2.1 million); and Child Care Assistance (+$38,000) line items. CY 2019 CY 2022 Change Non-Tipped Workers $7.25 to $9.99 506 176

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

of rate reduction)  Temporary gas price dip, large volume of stock buybacks  Wayfair court decision  Low medical care inflation PA consumers do not appear to be overextended  Modest growth in 2018 total consumer debt (+0.9%) 

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

3 13.4 US Personal Consumption 3.4% 3.4% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% US New Car‐Truck 16.7% 10.3% 3.4% 5.9% 2.9% 0.4% US Equipment Investment 4.8% 5.4%

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REU-2019-11.pdf

to weak collections for No- vember compared to prior months. Rates will likely continue to decelerate as consumers purchase fewer cars and trucks. This is consistent with analysts' expectations for the remainder of the year.  The 3-month PIT withholding

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REU-2019-10.pdf

very strong collections in September. The 12-month growth continues to decelerate consistent with analysts expectations for minimal growth in car and truck sales for the rest of the year.  The 3-month and the 12-month PIT withholding growth

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RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf

estate sectors reported $404 million (13.5%) of tax liability. This sector includes credit intermediation firms, insurance carriers and rental car firms.  The management sector ($192 million) includes a number of large holding companies that could be included in other

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RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf

savings in response to the repayment pause, and that “borrowers substitute increased private debt for paused public debt,” notably credit cards and auto loans. See “Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance,” Dinerstein et al., Becker Friedman Institute Working Paper No

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RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf

newly eligible rate is 90% and applies to MA enrollees who are eligible due to Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. The current CHIP rate is about 67% and applies to children enrolled in the program. Since March 2020, the

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

5 billion) and non-profits ($2 billion) and distributions from the Provider Relief Fund ($3 billion) to hospitals and health care providers. 1, 2 The analysis removes these stimulus funds from the data for Figure 2 to measure underlying income gains

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

Fiscal Office Page 3 For FY 2020-21, the state used funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act to fund employer contributions that typically rely on General Fund monies. The shift of funding source reduced the share

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PSEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

1.00% Jan 2027 Step 0.0 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total Impact (All Funds) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0

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PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

4.00% Jan 2023 Step 0.1 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Impact (All Funds) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 $0

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PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

31.5 5/ 30.7 29.8 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 40.4 55.1 53.6 52.2 Increase: Health Care Costs 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Total Impact (All Funds) 44.9 59.6 58.1 56

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

Recreational Services (movies, sporting events) $700 10.2% Professional Services (lawyers, accountants, engineers) $449 6.6% Personal Services (massage, nail care, personal trainers) $285 4.2% All Other Provisions $289 4.2% Total $6,833 100.0% Source: IFO Analysis of

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other expenditures associated with the long-term care of the elderly. The Independent Fiscal Office provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

millions of dollars. 3.Dec.2014 FY 14-15 Non-Recurring Savings and Shifts Description Amount Delay payments to managed care organizations $394 Transfer tobacco settlement investments to PSERS 225 Total Savings 619 From Tobacco Fund (to DHS) $144 From Lottery

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

196 202 206 206 211 210 213 218 222 225 226 224 223 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% Health Care and Social Assistance 646 658 666 677 695 705 713 724 743 761 772 788 814 837 855 875 889

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

forecast). Employment: 2007 vs. 2014  Student Loan debt up dramatically. o Debt burden reduces ability to purchase homes and cars. o Less discretionary income, lower credit scores. o No reason to abate in near term.  Large Wave of Mortgage

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

continue to lag.  Limited borrowing by PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. PA Economic Forecast 7/14/2017 27 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Dom

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

1.9% 1.5% 0.9% Home Furnishings 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 2.5% Car Purchase / Repairs 11.2% 10.3% 10.4% 9.7% 9.4% 7.0% Generally Non‐Taxable 62.0% 63

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

U.S. Census Estimates for 2015 • Large Wave of Retirements Next Decade • Demographic Changes Contribute to Tax Base Erosion • Health Care Costs Help Drive Expenditures 2015 Population by Generation thousands of residents 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Gen Y

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

1.9% 1.5% 0.9% Home Furnishings 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 2.5% Car Purchase / Repairs 11.2% 10.3% 10.4% 9.7% 9.4% 7.0% Generally Non‐Taxable 62.0% 63

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

Motor vehicle revenues very strong.  Up +10.2% thru Jan. | Adding $69 million to official.  U.S. passenger car sales down -13.1% in 2018.  Truck and SUVs up +8.0%. Total sales +0.3%.  A shift

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

measures are not utilized. Factors that Drive FY 19-20 Deficit November 19, 2018 13 Cost Drivers Dollar Amount Managed Care Organization GRT Overage (FY 18-19) $351 One-Time Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement (FY 18-19) 342 PlanCon Increase 214

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PLEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

00% July 2026 GPI 0 2.25% Jan 2027 Step 0 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 1 1 1 2 Increase: Health Care Costs 0 0 0 0 Total Impact (All Funds) 1 1 2 2 $6 4 Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the

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PLEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 0.1 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total Impact (All Funds) 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 $4

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perez ppt.pdf

2010** Nov. 2011 Number of States Optimistic Stable Concerned Pessimistic Spending Overruns in FY 2012  Medicaid or other health care programs – 6 states compared with 18 at this time last year  Corrections or public safety programs (3 states) 

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

non-tax revenues. May 24, 2017 19 Funding for Senior Programs May 24, 2017 20 68% 24% 8% Home-Based Care (DHS) = $513m General Fund Lottery Fund General Fund Other Lottery Fund PENNCARE = $317m PACE/PACENET = $185m Shared Ride = $83m PTRR

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PDA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

00% July 2026 GPI 1 2.25% Jan 2027 GPI 0 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 2 3 5 7 Increase: Health Care Costs 0 0 0 1 Total Impact (All Funds) 2 4 6 7 $19 4 Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the

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PDA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 GPI 0.4 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 1.0 2.2 3.4 4.5 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total Impact (All Funds) 1.0 2.2 3.5 4.7 $11

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf

0.4% Teacher Certification and Professional Dev. 27 5.7% 8 *% Curriculum and Assessments 25 5.3% 70 0.4% Career and Technical Education 23 4.8% 211 1.2% Child Development and Early Learning 14 3.1% 667 3.8%

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf

0.4% Teacher Certification and Professional Dev. 27 5.7% 8 *% Curriculum and Assessments 25 5.3% 70 0.4% Career and Technical Education 23 4.8% 211 1.2% Child Development and Early Learning 14 3.1% 667 3.8%

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_11_2023.pdf

Funds Product & Rate Review Consumer Services Prof. Lic. & Market Conduct Financial Regulation Liquid., Rehab. and Spec. Funds Admin. Total Med Care Avail. & Red. Error -- -- -- -- $194.5 -- $194.5 Reinsurance $140.5 -- -- -- -- -- 140.5 Underground Stor. Tank Ind. -- -- -- -- 56.9 -- 56.9

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf

295 practitioners received loan repayments (avg $68,100) January 9, 2023 12 DDAP Metric Highlights (Continued) DDAP works to improve care ▪ In partnership with DHS/other stakeholders, DDAP ensures alignment with ASAM criteria ▪ 70% of prevention services were evidence-based or

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

for applicants and stakeholders.  Reduce the average call center wait time by dedicating additional resources to customer care. This activity is primarily funded by fees for initial application for licensure or through active licensure re- newals. No state tax dollars

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

and State Benchmarks The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy releases an annual State Energy Efficiency Score- card, which ranks all 50 states on their policy and program efforts to save energy. The Council ranks every state in six categories

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

of Return on Advertising Estimating System – A Case Study Approach,” Dr. Donald Holecek (Michigan State University) and James Carr (Certec, Inc.), working paper (July 2007). Per Capita Rank Share Rank Share Rank New York $0.73 38 8.1% 3 7

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

Survey (PAYS) to provide data to guide the selection of juvenile programs; imple- mentation of the Communities That Care (CTC) model as the basis for prevention planning; and expansion of evidence-based juvenile justice and delinquency prevention programs in Pennsylvania. Goals

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

expenditures in $ millions. PEMA GF Appropriations (2019-20) January 22, 2020 8 Activities GGO State Fire Commissioner Red Cross Extended Care Program Search and Rescue Totals Administration $8.54 $1.05 $0.00 $0.00 $9.59 Response Operations 2.78

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

About 30%-60% of EIPs spent. Most of that within 3 months. Most unemployment compensation is spent. Per capita credit card debt down 14% in 2021 Q1. Does not account for any fraud that flows out of state. Note: Billions of

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OPEIU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

00% July 2026 GPI 1 2.25% Jan 2027 Step 0 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 2 3 5 6 Increase: Health Care Costs 0 1 1 1 Total Impact (All Funds) 2 4 6 7 $19 4 Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the

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OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 0.3 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.3 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.1 0.2 0.3 Total Impact (All Funds) 1.0 2.2 3.5 4.6 $11

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

0.5% from 2018 Q1. Detail for the various categories of debt were as follows: auto loans (3.6%), credit cards (3.0%), mortgages (-0.3%), home equity loans (-11.5%) and student loans (4.3%). By comparison, total per capita

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

and Philadelphia counties. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI-U increased 1.5%, led by gains in medical care (3.9%) and home furnishings (4.5%). Regional inflation was suppressed due to a drop in gas prices (-11.3%

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

the prior year, all consumer prices increased by 1.5%. Food and beverage prices increased by 1.0% and medical care by 3.9%, while gasoline declined by 11.0%. Excluding energy, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased by 1.9% from

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

a year-over-year basis. For other types of debt, the growth rates were as follows: auto (1.5%), credit cards (4.0%), primary mortgage (1.1%) and home equity loans (-5.8%). For total debt, the per capita increase was

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

data reveal the following growth rates for total Pennsylvania consumer debt for the first quarter: student loans (5.0%), credit cards (4.7%), primary mortgages (1.8%), auto loans (1.2%) and home equity loans (-0.2%). Total consumer debt increased

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

per capita consumer debt (0.6%) from the same quarter in the prior year. While auto loan (0.5%), credit card (4.5%) and student loan (5.0%) debt increased, primary mortgage (-0.6%) and home equity loans (-4.5%) declined

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NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf

governments ○ Formula disbursement ○ Funds must be obligate by Dec. 31, 2024, and spent by Dec. 31, 2026. ○ More flexible than CARES Act Coronavirus Relief Fund ○ NCSL working directly with Treasury to clarify guidance questions. ○ *Waiting on the Final Rule NATIONAL CONFERENCE

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

motor vehicle SUT growth rate shows moderate gains, far below the 12-month trend. Many analysts expect minimal growth in car and truck sales for the rest of the year.  The 3-month PIT withholding growth rate continues to exhibit

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

a weak May.  The Philadelphia region CPI-U continued to increase in June. Recreation (3.9 percent) and medical care (3.9 percent) recorded the largest price increases from the prior year. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

show that PA per capita consumer debt levels increased (1.3%) during the past nine months. An increase in credit card, auto and student loan debt more than offset a slight decline in mortgage debt. Second, the PA labor market could

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

year. Motor vehicle SUT collections held up well (only $8.6 million short of estimate), despite the closure of certain car dealerships at the end of March. FYTD SUT collections are $30.7 million (0.4 percent) below estimate. Cigarette and

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MRU-2020-04.pdf

vehicle SUT collections for the month were impacted dramatically (-$127.0 million), as the result of the closure of most car dealerships in April. FYTD SUT collections are $388.0 million (-4.1 percent) below estimate. Corporate net income tax (CNIT

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf

7.61 Number of Home Sales 6 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -7.5% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 9.4% 8.3% -1.0% -4.2% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -0.4% 4.2%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

3.51 Number of Home Sales 6 -3.9% -1.4% 2.8% 0.0% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 165.9% 81.1% 40.0% 26.6% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 41.6% 20.3%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf

7.30 Number of Home Sales 6 0.0% 0.0% -7.5% 0.0% -1.6% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 2.5% -1.0% -4.2% -0.9% -0.4% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 4.2% 3.4%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf

4.18 Number of Home Sales 6 -1.4% 2.8% 0.0% -1.4% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 81.1% 40.0% 26.6% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 20.3% 11.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf

4.18 Number of Home Sales 6 -1.4% 2.8% 0.0% -1.4% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 81.1% 40.0% 26.6% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 20.3% 11.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf

4.80 Number of Home Sales 6 0.0% -7.5% 0.0% -1.6% -6.6% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -1.0% -4.2% -0.9% -0.4% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 3.4% -2.2%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf

4.37 Number of Home Sales 6 2.8% 0.0% -1.4% 5.5% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 40.0% 26.6% n.a. n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 11.6% 6.0%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf

1.65 Number of Home Sales 6 -3.7% -3.8% 4.0% 0.0% -1.9% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 0.5% 16.4% 3.4% 3.7% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -3.4% 4.5%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf

5.85 Number of Home Sales 6 -1.4% 6.8% -11.5% -4.3% 1.5% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 32.8% 5.8% 29.1% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 6.6% 1.4%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdf

2.01 Number of Home Sales 6 -5.0% -5.3% -3.7% -3.8% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -2.3% -18.0% 0.5% 16.4% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -2.6% -1.2%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

2.27 $3.18 Home Sales 6 3.6% -1.1% 3.5% -2.2% -11.5% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -22.7% -29.3% -32.9% -27.6% -35.1% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -1.6% 0.7%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdf

1.45 Number of Home Sales 6 -3.8% 4.0% 0.0% -1.9% -2.0% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 16.4% 3.4% 3.7% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 4.5% -1.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf

7.07 Number of Home Sales 6 6.8% -11.5% -4.3% 1.5% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 5.8% 29.1% 9.4% 8.3% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 1.4% 12.7%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

1.97 Number of Home Sales 6 -2.2% -11.5% -1.3% -3.9% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -27.6% -35.1% 23.5% 165.9% 81.1% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -1.6% -4.9%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

1.97 Number of Home Sales 6 -2.2% -11.5% -1.3% -3.9% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -27.6% -35.1% 23.5% 165.9% 81.1% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -1.6% -4.9%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf

6.81 Number of Home Sales 6 -11.5% -4.3% 1.5% 1.5% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 5.8% 29.1% 9.4% 8.3% -1.0% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 12.7% 3.1%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

2.06 Number of Home Sales 6 -11.5% -1.3% -3.9% -1.4% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -35.1% 23.5% 165.9% 81.1% 40.0% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -4.9% 18.5%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

Respondents reported multiple categories of spending, including food (59.3%), utilities and telecommunications (44.3%) and household supplies and personal care (43.6%). An estimated 20.7% of households reported using the stimulus payments to meet spending needs within seven days

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf

4.98 Number of Home Sales 6 0.0% -1.6% -6.6% -7.0% -1.9% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -0.9% -0.4% -2.3% -18.0% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 4.6% -0.4%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf

3.12 Number of Home Sales 6 -1.4% 5.5% -1.3% 0.0% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 18.1% 16.2% n.a. n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 8.1% 7.0%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

1.98 $2.32 Home Sales 6 16.2% 4.7% -2.2% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -22.3% -22.7% -29.3% -32.9% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 3.0% -1.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf

3.59 Number of Home Sales 6 5.5% -1.3% 0.0% -1.3% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 16.2% 16.7% 53.9% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 7.0% 4.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf

3.59 Number of Home Sales 6 5.5% -1.3% 0.0% -1.3% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 16.2% 16.7% 53.9% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 7.0% 4.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

2.01 $2.30 Home Sales 6 16.2% 4.7% -1.1% 4.5% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -22.3% -22.7% -29.3% -32.9% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 3.0% -1.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

2.01 $2.30 Home Sales 6 16.2% 4.7% -1.1% 4.5% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -22.3% -22.7% -29.3% -32.9% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 3.0% -1.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdf

3.43 Number of Home Sales 6 -7.5% 0.0% -1.6% -6.6% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -4.2% -0.9% -0.4% -2.3% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -2.2% 4.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf

5.63 Number of Home Sales 6 -4.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 29.1% 9.4% 8.3% -1.0% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 3.1% -0.4%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf

2.14 Number of Home Sales 6 -5.3% -3.7% -3.8% 4.0% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -18.0% 0.5% 16.4% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -1.2% -3.4%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf

2.14 Number of Home Sales 6 -5.3% -3.7% -3.8% 4.0% 0.0% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -18.0% 0.5% 16.4% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 -1.2% -3.4%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf

4.01 Number of Home Sales 6 0.0% -1.4% 6.8% -11.5% n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 53.9% 32.8% 5.8% n.a. n.a. PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 9.0% 6.6%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

3.29 $2.15 Home Sales 6 -1.1% 3.5% -2.2% -11.5% -1.3% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -29.3% -32.9% -27.6% -35.1% 23.5% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 0.7% 5.1%

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

3.29 $2.15 Home Sales 6 -1.1% 3.5% -2.2% -11.5% -1.3% PA Turnpike Traffic (cars) 7 -29.3% -32.9% -27.6% -35.1% 23.5% PA Turnpike Traffic (commercial) 7 0.7% 5.1%

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 Auto Loans (10%) 5.0% 8.6% 9.2% 9.4% 7.6% Credit Card (7%) 3.0% 5.2% 4.5% 1.8% 3.6% Home Mortgage (60%) 1.4% 0.0% 2.7%

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MER-2015-06.pdf

outpaced that of the U.S. by 0.4 percentage points (pp). In the longer and shorter term, the health care, professional services and real estate industries have contributed roughly 0.8 pp to real GDP per capita growth. For 2014

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MER-2014-06.pdf

the lowest of any region in the U.S. Large sectors that reported gains in Pennsylvania in 2013 include health care and social assistance (+1.8% growth, 9.6% of GSP), professional, scienti Ðic and technical services (+1.5% growth, 7

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Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf

Notes: dollar amounts in millions. OPEB stands for Other Post-Employment Benefits. 1 Pew “50-State Survey of Retiree Health Care Liabilities“, Figure 4. 3 Individual State Pension System Reports/CAFRs for FYE 16. 4 State employees under the general state

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Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf

payment of tax. In the second example, a firm may own a vehicle such as a pick-up truck or car. 6 The firm may prefer to obtain a new vehicle every third or fourth year, and the like-kind exchange

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Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf

because many recipients had only a marginal, if any, connection to the labor force. To the extent that available child care limits employment options, that issue will likely moderate as federal benefits approach expiration and former childcare workers return to the

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Labor_Market_Update_Aug_2021.pdf

sectors. Conversely, job losses in the healthcare sector increased, largely due to continued weakness in the nursing home and residential care subsector. Through July 2021, employment in that subsector is down 24,500 from its pre-pandemic level. Unlike nearly all

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

 Case study: Arizona “Alternative Fuel Credit”  Arizona legislature enacts income tax credit for businesses or individuals’ purchase of cars that can run on alternative fuel– or conversion of existing vehicle fleets to do so. No requirement to actually use

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ISSU_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

00% July 2026 GPI 1 2.25% Jan 2027 Step 1 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 3 5 8 10 Increase: Health Care Costs 1 2 2 3 Total Impact (All Funds) 4 7 10 13 $34 4 Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the

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ISSU Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 0.6 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 1.7 3.5 5.3 6.9 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.3 0.6 0.9 Total Impact (All Funds) 1.7 3.8 5.9 7.8 $19

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Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf

other lodging (e.g., VRBO) • $427,000 on food and beverage (restaurants) • $832,000 on retail and other expenditures (transport, car rental, clothing) These estimates assume that (1) the average out-of-state and international athlete stayed 3 nights, (2) non-

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

33% from the prior year and comprise 7.0% of the CPI-U basket. • Durable goods purchases (new and used cars, appliances, furniture) were up 14% (10.9% of CPI-U). • Grocery prices are now increasing rapidly, up 13% (7.1%

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

from 7.9% to 7.4%. Marijuana use can cause short- or long-term health issues, which can impact health care costs. For example, smoking marijuana can harm lung tissues and users can develop problems with attention, memory and learning functions

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

Commercial Workers (UFCW), Management and Non- Represented Employees. 2 Other includes Environmental Hearing Board, Ethics Commission, Governor's Office, Health Care Cost Containment, Lieutenant Governor, Milk Marketing Board, PA Infrastructure Investment, PA Municipal Retirement Board, PA Port Authorities, PA School Employees

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FOSCEP Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 0.4 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 1.1 2.2 3.4 4.4 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.1 0.3 0.4 Total Impact (All Funds) 1.1 2.3 3.6 4.8 $11

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

Facilities November 15, 2022 10 Number (000s) 3-Year Change Subsector Sept 2019 Sept 2022 Number Percent Nursing and Residential Care 202 176 -27 -13.1% Employment Services (temps) 123 103 -19 -15.7 Full-Service Restaurants 196 180 -17 -8

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other expenditures associated with the long-term care of the elderly. The Independent Fiscal Office provides revenue projections for use in the state budget process along with impartial

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase state expenditures associated with the long-term care of the elderly. Act 120 of 2010 created the Independent Fiscal Office to provide revenue projections for use in the

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CIVEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

00% July 2026 GPI 1 2.25% Jan 2027 Step 0 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 2 4 5 7 Increase: Health Care Costs 0 1 1 1 Total Impact (All Funds) 3 5 6 8 $21 4 Baseline Salaries & Benefits for the

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CIVEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2.22% Jan 2023 Step 0.4 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 1.1 2.2 4.0 5.1 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.1 0.3 0.4 Total Impact (All Funds) 1.1 2.3 4.3 5.5 $13

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

hiring and investment. Households are in better financial shape to increase spending because they have paid down debt, especially credit card debt. Gains in the stock market and housing markets for 2013 may bolster consumer confidence and give rise to a

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BEFC_Response_Letter_12_19_23.pdf

38 1.39 1.49 1.30 1.30 1.25 1.30 1.44 1.42 Students in Foster Care Multiplier 2015 BEFC Survey Results Median 1 Average 1 Wght. Avg. 1,2 December 19, 2023 Page 8 SD SPP

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ALES Wage Contract Analysis- 2019.pdf

2.25% Jan 2023 Step 0.0 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Increase: Health Care Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Impact (All Funds) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 $1

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AFSCME_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

00% July 2026 GPI 46 2.25% Jan 2027 Step 27 Increase: Salaries & Benefits 129 220 318 412 Increase: Health Care Costs 39 82 96 110 Total Impact (All Funds) 168 302 414 522 $1,406 4 Baseline Salaries & Benefits for

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 Auto Loan 1.5% 2.0% 3.6% 5.0% 4.7% Credit Card Loan 4.0% 6.9% 3.0% 4.3% 1.0% All Mortgage Loans 0.6% -1.1% -1.3%

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2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf

all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction, as well as the Attorney General, Auditor General, Lieutenant Governor, Ethics Commission, Health Care Cost Containment Council, PA Infrastructure Investment Authority, PA Port Authorities, Patient Safety Authority and the PA Gaming Control Board. All

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2002_drop_report.pdf

be unexpectedly expensive and conflict with municipal codes, Act 205 and the Municipal Police Pension Law. In the absence of carefully crafted legislation, compliance with federal anti-discrimination rules and the Internal Revenue Code could be problematic as well. Under a

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Pensions

of Philadelphia Municipal Retirement System from denying any benefit, including pension payments, service-connected death benefits, or service-connected health care benefits to a surviving spouse of a police officer or police employee, including a police pensioner and employee of the

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