IFO Releases

Natural Gas Quarterly Update, 2023Q3

December 04, 2023 | Energy

This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. 

Tags: gas, natural, production

Full Report

Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report

December 01, 2023 | Pension Analysis

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $24.9 billion in General Fund revenues (2.0%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year).

Full Report

November 2023 Revenue Update

December 01, 2023 | Revenue & Economic Update

The Commonwealth collected $3.06 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $107.9 million (3.7%) compared to November 2022 (adjusted).

Tags: estimates, monthly, revenue

Full Report

PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to Inflation

November 30, 2023 | Economics and Other

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to examine how those outcomes affected real wages and earnings for the average or typical Pennsylvania private sector worker.

Tags: brief, earnings, inflation, research

Full Report

November 2023 Monthly Economic Update

November 29, 2023 | Revenue & Economic Update

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 

Tags: economic, monthly, update

Full Report

Act 1 Index Reaches New High

November 28, 2023 | Property Tax

The Act 1 index limits the annual increase in school district millage rates. For FY 24-25, PDE recently certified an all-time high value (5.3%). This report examines the factors that drive that outcome and provides projections through FY 28-29.

Tags: act, index, one

Full Report

Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook

November 15, 2023 | Revenue Estimates

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget OutlookClick the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.


Full Report

2023 Wage Contracts Summary Table

November 09, 2023 | Wage Contracts

This table provides an up-to-date summary of the recent wage contracts analyzed by the IFO. Additional estimates will be provided after the relevant contract detail has been transmitted to the IFO by the Office of Administration.

Tags: contract, wage

Full Report

PLEA Wage Contract Analysis

November 09, 2023 | Wage Contracts

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Liquor Enforcement Association (PLEA).

Tags: analysis, contract, wage

Full Report

Economic and Budget Outlook

November 08, 2023 | Revenue Estimates

The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2023-24 to FY 2028-29 on November 15 at 1:30 pm. Long-term issues that impact the outlook include the expiration of federal relief programs, a rapidly expanding 75+ age cohort and the depletion of surplus balances that currently generate significant interest income. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

Tags: budget, economic, outlook, presentation

Full Report