The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.

This table provides an up-to-date summary of the recent wage contracts analyzed by the IFO. Additional estimates will be provided after the relevant contract detail has been transmitted to the IFO by the Office of Administration.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Liquor Enforcement Association (PLEA).

The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2023-24 to FY 2028-29 on November 15 at 1:30 pm. Long-term issues that impact the outlook include the expiration of federal relief programs, a rapidly expanding 75+ age cohort and the depletion of surplus balances that currently generate significant interest income. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

The Commonwealth collected $3.25 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $121.4 million (3.9%) compared to October 2022.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Correctional Institution Vocational Education Association (CIVEA).

The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses placement waitlists and potential cost implications from the contraction in nursing home capacity since 2019.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW).

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 in November 2023.

New IFO report highlights findings from the 20 tax credit reviews published during the first five-year evaluation cycle (2019 to 2023).

Director Knittel gave a presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on the economic and revenue impact of the student loan moratorium.

The Commonwealth collected $4.06 billion in General Fund revenues for September, a decrease of $161.3 million (-3.8%) compared to September 2022.

Treasury collections are up dramatically from prior years. This research brief examines the cause of the windfalls and explains why they aren’t expected to continue over the long-term.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Service Employees' International Union (SEIU) Local 668.

Director Knittel made a brief presentation to an economic summit hosted by the York County Delegation of the General Assembly.

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 

Fiscal Analyst Mathieu Taylor made a presentation to the House Local Government Committee regarding House Bill 1379, P.N. 1539. The bill would provide cost-of-living adjustments for certain retired municipal police officers and firefighters.

This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Natural Gas Intelligence to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices. 

The Commonwealth collected $2.90 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $34.5 million (1.2%) compared to August 2022.

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 20, 2023.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) Council 13.

This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2021. 

This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers.

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eleven budget cycles.

This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, the American Community Survey and Social Security Administration to estimate the impact of the recently enacted expansion of the PTRR program. It provides detail on impact by income level, claimant type and county.

The Commonwealth collected $2.88 billion in General Fund revenues for July, an increase of $185.3 million compared to July 2022.

This research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant.

This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) return data from tax year 2019 based on tax liability, apportionment factor and NAICS code.

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 

The Commonwealth collected $44.92 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2022-23, a decrease of $3.22 billion (-6.7%) compared to the prior fiscal year. The decline is due to a one-time transfer of $3.84 billion in FY 2021-22 and a new SUT transfer.

Director Matt Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Finance Committee on combined reporting.

The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2027-28, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index.

This update examines 2022 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2023. The Commonwealth collected $278.9 million in impact fees for 2022, a $44.4 million increase from 2021. 

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. Updated estimates for FY 2022-23 are included.

Methodology

The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses the factors that motivate recent record Lottery jackpots for Mega Millions and Powerball and how large jackpots from those two games impact funds for programs the Lottery Fund supports.

As part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million.

The Commonwealth collected $3.29 billion in General Fund Revenues for May, an increase of $61.1 million (1.9%) compared to May 2022.

This document uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Bentek Energy to provide a quarterly update on recent trends in production volume, well counts and average spot prices.

The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2023-24. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.

The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Wednesday, May 24th at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2022-23 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2023-24. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion.

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2023-24 Executive Budget released March 2023. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

The Commonwealth collected $5.66 billion in General Fund revenues for April, a decrease of $863.0 million (-13.2%) compared to April 2022.

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.

The IFO presented an Economic and Budget Update to the PA Motor Truck Association.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposal to provide property tax rebates for senior homeowners in certain income ranges.

The IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after.

The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to net migration for Pennsylvania, U3 and U6 unemployment rates, tax burden and labor force participation rates for Pennsylvania and border states, Pennsylvania’s declining workforce and the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit.

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy.

The Commonwealth collected $6.19 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $633.3 million (11.4%) compared to March 2022.

The IFO posted a new research brief that uses published data from The Pew Charitable Trusts to rank states based on the ratio of (1) Rainy Day Fund balances and (2) Total Balances (Rainy Day plus General Fund) to General Fund expenditures for enacted FY 2022-23 budgets.

The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the Senate Appropriations Committee ahead of its budget hearing. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics.

Director Knittel gave an Economic and Act 1 Index update at the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO) Annual Conference.

Director Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Chamber of Business and Industry.

The IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state.

This report for the fourth quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

The IFO posted a research brief that provides an overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. For 2022, PA remains the top exporter of electricity across all states. The next largest state (AL) exported 40% less electricity.

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51, the Commonwealth will use $46.5 billion in General Fund revenues (2.3%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

The Commonwealth collected $2.83 billion in General Fund revenues for February, an increase of $393.5 million (16.2%) compared to February 2022.

The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Senator Pennycuick. The letter contains projections for the impact of proposed changes to the amount of taxable income that C corporations may offset through net operating loss deductions.

The IFO posted a second research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the impact that nearly $820 million in federal support had on the child care industry and its employees, and the funding cliff the industry will encounter in the near future.

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

The IFO published a letter in response to requests for additional information raised at a recent economic and budget outlook hearing on January 24, 2023.

The Commonwealth collected $3.57 billion in General Fund revenues for January, a decrease of $23.7 million (-0.7%) compared to January 2022. Due to a processing delay on the last day of the month, roughly $94 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in January will be shifted to February.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in late May.

The IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief quantifies the impact from the end of SNAP emergency allotments in February 2023.

This research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child.

The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Chairman Grove for a static and dynamic analysis of proposed changes to state motor fuel taxes. The proposal would reduce those taxes and replace lost revenues with motor vehicle sales and use taxes.

The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

The IFO presented results from its five-year outlook report published in November 2022.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices is posted on the website.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Revenue is posted on the website.

IFO presentation of the Manufacturing, Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credit Reviews.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources and the Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs is posted on the website.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Manufacturing Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Executive Offices.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023. 

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Insurance Department.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 11, 2023. 

The report was reposted on January 18, 2023 to correct a single year of data on page 14.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Revenue.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 10, 2023. 

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Drug and Alcohol.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023. 

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs, Department of Revenue, Pennsylvania Insurance Department and the Executive Offices.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 9, 2023. 

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit Report.

The report was amended on February 17, 2023 to include updates to Table 3.1 on page 14.

Following publication of the RJITC report, the IFO became aware of a data discrepancy contained within a referenced study. As a result, the RJITC report was updated to exclude references to the “Evaluation of Alabama’s Entertainment Industry Incentive Program and New Markets Development Program” on February 23, 2023.

The IFO published a research brief on the decline in Pennsylvania gasoline consumption resulting from recent trends in remote working and higher gasoline prices. Reduced consumption means less funding for road and bridge construction, as gasoline taxes fund 55% of those projects.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fifth year, the IFO reviewed the Manufacturing, Resource Manufacturing, Rural Jobs and Investment, and Waterfront Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Waterfront Development Tax Credit Report.

The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states.

The Commonwealth collected $4.04 billion in General Fund revenue for December, an increase of $195.9 million (5.1%) compared to December 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the shift of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December.

The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds.

The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization.

This research brief was reposted on December 21 to correct a text error on page 1. 

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate.

This report for the third quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

The Commonwealth collected $2.75 billion in General Fund revenue for November, a decrease of $3.87 billion (-58.4%) compared to November 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the delay of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December.

The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. 

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

The Commonwealth collected $3.12 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $310.8 million (11.0%) compared to October 2021.

This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2022 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2023). Collections are estimated to be $274.8 million, an increase of $40.4 million from the prior year.

Michaela Miller gave a brief presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The REAP tax credit was used as a case study.

This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report.

The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.

The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends.

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past ten budget cycles.

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28.

The Commonwealth collected $4.22 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $214.8 million (5.4%) compared to September 2021.

A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives.

The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 

The Commonwealth collected $2.86 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $290.7 million (11.3%) compared to August 2021.

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget.

The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.

The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

This report for the second quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues  and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index.

The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $4.0 million (-0.1%) compared to July 2021.

The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

The Commonwealth collected $48.13 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2021-22, an increase of $7.74 billion (19.2%) compared to the prior fiscal year.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Updated estimates for FY 2021-22 are included.

Methodology

This update examines 2021 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2022. The Commonwealth collected $234.4 million in impact fees for 2021, an $88.2 million increase from 2020.

The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285.

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021.

On June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget.

The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older.

The Commonwealth collected $3.23 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $716.2 million (-18.1%) compared to May 2021.

This report for the first quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13.

The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Monday, May 23rd at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2021-22 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2022-23. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3). 

Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022.  

The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10. 

The Commonwealth collected $6.52 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $2.56 billion (64.5%) compared to April 2021.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. 

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education.

Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022.

The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16.

The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022.

The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf

The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx

Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022. 

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022.

The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1. 

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides updated estimates for potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated.

The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

The Commonwealth collected $5.56 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $714.3 million (14.8%) compared to March 2021.

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony on the model assumptions used by a consultant to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania from joining RGGI.

This written testimony was updated on November 4, 2022, to include clarifications for the third and sixth bullets on page 1.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to two questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to an update of the IFO’s five-year projections for revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget and an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors.

The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question relates to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment by race.

The IFO responded to a request from Appropriations Committee Chairman Saylor for a dynamic revenue estimate of three corporate net income tax proposals.

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. 

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education is posted on the website.

The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates.

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center.

The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30.

The Commonwealth collected $2.43 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decrease of $249.5 million (-9.3%) compared to February 2021.

This report for the fourth quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its budget hearings. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates the potential reduction in property taxes due to Act 25 of 2011.

This research updates a prior release (September 2021) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. The analysis finds 19,800 excess deaths in 2020 and estimates 18,900 excess deaths for 2021. 

The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

The Commonwealth collected $3.59 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $931.08 million (35.0%) compared to January 2021.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in mid May.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education and the Department of Agriculture is posted on the website.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Aging and the Department of Human Services (Part 3) is posted on the website.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission is posted on the website.

IFO presentation of the Mixed-Use Development, Brewers’, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation and Educational Tax Credit Reviews.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Brewers’ Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Educational Tax Credits Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. 

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022.  

The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commision.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.  

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Labor and Industry.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.  

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit Report.

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

Director Matt Knittel made a presentation of recent IFO releases to the PA School Boards Association.

This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2021 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2022). Collections are estimated to be $233.8 million, an increase of $87.6 million from the prior year.

The IFO is accepting applications for employment from qualified candidates. See the job posting for further details.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and AFSCME.

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past seven budget cycles.

This report examines impact fee collections for 2018 and provides an outlook for 2019.