www.ifo.state.pa.us

Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office

Official Revenue Estimate: Fiscal Year 2014-15
- Details changes to the economic forecast and the impact on the last quarter of FY 2013-14.
- Provides official revenue estimate for FY 2014-15 for the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation.
- FY 2014-15 economic outlook for the labor market, income growth and consumer spending.
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Pennsylvania's Economic & Budget Outlook:
Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19
- Economic and demographic projections through FY 2018-19.
- Special section on demographic trends for 25-34 year age cohort.
- Special section on employment trends for Coal and Natural Gas extractors.
- Projects General Fund surplus/deficit through FY 2018-19.
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The Pennsylvania Lottery:
Historical Data and Interstate Comparisons
- Historical sales and profits.
- Uses industry metrics to compare PA to other states.
- Potential Lottery expansion through Keno.
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Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison
- Provides framework to facilitate interstate severance tax comparisons across 11 states.
- Estimates effective tax rates for state and local taxes on natural gas production.
- Discusses other taxes levied on extractors and state production incentives.
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Monthly Economic Report
The report provides a snapshot of monthly and quarterly economic trends for PA and the US.

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Revenue Trends Report
Report Highlights:
- Revenues to the General Fund.
- Three and twelve-month trends.
- Factors affecting changes to General Fund revenues.
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Welcome

Welcome to the Home page of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). This page provides links to materials recently published or presented by the IFO. For a complete listing of publications and presentations made during the past year, please see the Releases page.

The Quarterly Revenue Review for the second quarter of 2014 (April through June) is available.
The Revenue Trends Report for June 2014 is available. Prior months are available on the "Releases" tab.
The Monthly Economic Report for June 2014 is available. Prior months are available on the "Releases" tab.

Documents related to the IFO's June 16 official revenue estimate are available:
IFO Director Matthew Knittel recently made a presentation to the Pennsylvania Business Council discussing the impact of demographics on the Pennsylvania economy.
- Presentation
- Spreadsheet with additional employment, demographic and international migration data.

A report entitled Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison is available.
- Full Report
- Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages)
- Background on Effective Tax Rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections)

A report entitled The Pennsylvania Lottery: Historical Data and Interstate Comparisons is available. The report examines historical sales and profit data for the PA Lottery and provides comparisons to other states.
Pennsylvania's Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19 is available.

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