Independent Fiscal Office

This report for the third quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Grow PA Coalition on the Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Outlook.

The Commonwealth collected $2.36 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $19.8 million (0.8%) compared to November 2018.

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.

Announcement: The IFO will present its Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The Tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on Pennsylvania's tax and business climate.

The Commonwealth collected $2.67 billion in General fund revenues for October, an increase of $195.5 million (7.9%) compared to October 2018.

The October edition of our monthly newsletter - The IFO News Stand. The release includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that expands upon a prior analysis on the impact of a proposed minimum wage increase.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code affecting personal income and sales and use taxes.

The Commonwealth collected $3.19 billion in General fund revenues for September, an increase of $143.8 million (4.7%) compared to September 2018.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes (1) state spending dedicated to seniors, (2) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors and (3) potential changes in senior migration patterns due to proposed tax law changes.

This research brief uses state personal income tax data to estimate natural gas royalties paid to landowners in 2017. The data suggest that royalties paid increased significantly from the prior year due to increased production and higher prices.

This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

This report for the second quarter of 2019 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and AFSCME.

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2019-20 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 21, 2019. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2019-20 state budget.

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past seven budget cycles.

This report examines impact fee collections for 2018 and provides an outlook for 2019.

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and official estimates for FY 2019-20 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation. 

Methodology

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants regarding an update on Pennsylvania's budget and economic landscape.  

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19 are included. For the PowerPoint presentation, click on the hyperlink above.

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19.

In partnership with the Pennsylvania Economy League, Director Matthew Knittel and Deputy Director Brenda Warburton will make multiple presentations on raising the state minimum wage to $12.00 per hour. The presentation examines the proposed minimum wage’s impact on employment, worker incomes, prices and state spending.

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads.

Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that computes the level of personal income tax (PIT) increase needed to fully fund a 100% homestead exclusion for school district property taxes.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States (December 2018). The letter also compares Pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO has updated projections regarding school district property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be subject to replacement under potential legislation that would eliminate school property taxes.

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings.

Testimony

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. The revised estimate is $34.272 billion, which is $373 million higher than the IFO’s offical estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2019-20, revenues are projected to be $35.272 billion, an increase of 2.9 percent over the current year. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May.

Click on the hyperlink above to access the three tax credit reviews and presentation.

Click on the hyperlink above to access the five performance-based budget reviews and presentations.

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief related to the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program. The brief provides historical data of the program and examines the potential impact of proposed legislation.

This research brief was updated November 12, 2019 to take Act 43 of 2019 into consideration.