Independent Fiscal Office

This report for the third quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

The Commonwealth collected $2.75 billion in General Fund revenue for November, a decrease of $3.87 billion (-58.4%) compared to November 2021. The implementation of the Department of Revenue’s tax modernization project resulted in the delay of roughly $200 million of revenue that would normally have been receipted in November to December.

The November edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. 

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

The Commonwealth collected $3.12 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $310.8 million (11.0%) compared to October 2021.

This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2022 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2023). Collections are estimated to be $274.8 million, an increase of $40.4 million from the prior year.

Michaela Miller gave a brief presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The REAP tax credit was used as a case study.

This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report.

The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.

The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends.

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past ten budget cycles.

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28.

The Commonwealth collected $4.22 billion in General Fund revenues for September, an increase of $214.8 million (5.4%) compared to September 2021.

A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives.

The September edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 

The Commonwealth collected $2.86 billion in General Fund revenues for August, an increase of $290.7 million (11.3%) compared to August 2021.

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget.

The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.

The August edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

This report for the second quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues  and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index.

The Commonwealth collected $2.70 billion in General Fund revenues for July, a decrease of $4.0 million (-0.1%) compared to July 2021.

The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

The Commonwealth collected $48.13 billion in General Fund revenues for fiscal year 2021-22, an increase of $7.74 billion (19.2%) compared to the prior fiscal year.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Updated estimates for FY 2021-22 are included.

Methodology

This update examines 2021 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2022. The Commonwealth collected $234.4 million in impact fees for 2021, an $88.2 million increase from 2020.

The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285.

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021.

On June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget.

The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older.

The Commonwealth collected $3.23 billion in General Fund revenues for May, a decrease of $716.2 million (-18.1%) compared to May 2021.

This report for the first quarter of 2022 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

The IFO released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2022-23. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13.

The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Monday, May 23rd at 1:30 PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2021-22 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2022-23. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 3). 

Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022.  

The report was updated on May 4, 2022 to include addenda to Activity 1, 7 and 10. 

The Commonwealth collected $6.52 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $2.56 billion (64.5%) compared to April 2021.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. 

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Education.

Tabled by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022.

The report was updated on January 31, 2022 for technical changes on pages 10, 15 and 16.

The report was updated on April 26, 2022. The amended report includes additions requested by the PBB Board on March 9, 2022.

The board’s request can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdf

The underlying data for the dot plots can be viewed here: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us//Resources/Documents/DotPlotData.xlsx

Approved by the PBB Board on May 25, 2022. 

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Aging.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 25, 2022.

The report was updated on April 26, 2022 to include an addendum to Activity 1. 

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides updated estimates for potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated.

The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2022-23 Executive Budget released February 2022. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

The Commonwealth collected $5.56 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase of $714.3 million (14.8%) compared to March 2021.

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony on the model assumptions used by a consultant to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania from joining RGGI.

This written testimony was updated on November 4, 2022, to include clarifications for the third and sixth bullets on page 1.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to two questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to an update of the IFO’s five-year projections for revenues and expenditures that incorporates the proposed initiatives in the Governor’s Executive Budget and an estimate of school district property taxes paid by seniors.

The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question relates to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment by race.

The IFO responded to a request from Appropriations Committee Chairman Saylor for a dynamic revenue estimate of three corporate net income tax proposals.

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylania electricity market. 

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education is posted on the website.

The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates.

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center.

The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30.

The Commonwealth collected $2.43 billion in General Fund revenues for February, a decrease of $249.5 million (-9.3%) compared to February 2021.

This report for the fourth quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its budget hearings. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates the potential reduction in property taxes due to Act 25 of 2011.

This research updates a prior release (September 2021) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. The analysis finds 19,800 excess deaths in 2020 and estimates 18,900 excess deaths for 2021. 

The February edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

The Commonwealth collected $3.59 billion in General Fund revenues for January, an increase of $931.08 million (35.0%) compared to January 2021.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2021-22 and provided an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections released in mid May.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education and the Department of Agriculture is posted on the website.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Aging and the Department of Human Services (Part 3) is posted on the website.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission is posted on the website.

IFO presentation of the Mixed-Use Development, Brewers’, Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation and Educational Tax Credit Reviews.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Brewers’ Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Educational Tax Credits Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission. 

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Agriculture.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 26, 2022.  

The report was updated on January 26, 2022 for technical changes on pages 20 and 21.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commision.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.  

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Departments of Aging, Agriculture, Education, Human Services (Part 3), Labor and Industry and the Pennsylvania Historical and Museum Commission.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Labor and Industry.

Approved by the PBB Board on January 24, 2022.  

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the fourth year, the IFO reviewed the Brewers', Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation, Educational and Mixed-Use Development Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Coal Refuse Energy and Reclamation Tax Credit Report.

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

Director Matt Knittel made a presentation of recent IFO releases to the PA School Boards Association.

This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2021 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2022). Collections are estimated to be $233.8 million, an increase of $87.6 million from the prior year.

The January edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

The IFO is accepting applications for employment from qualified candidates. See the job posting for further details.

The Commonwealth collected $3.85 billion in General Fund revenues for December, an increase of $162.3 million (4.4%) compared to December 2020. 

The December edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

The Commonwealth collected $6.62 billion in General Fund revenues for November, an increase of $4.28 billion (183.1%) compared to November 2020. 

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

This report for the third quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook and School District Property Tax Forecast.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27.

This report contains the IFO's updated forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2020-21 to FY 2025-26. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019-20 current-year property tax collections, (2) the impact from FY 2021-22 millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 Index projection.

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

Using the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds historic wage gains for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. The brief notes that employee compensation comprises 56% of final sales and firms will likely push most labor costs forward to final consumers, thereby putting upward pressure on prices and inflation.

The Commonwealth collected $2.81 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $221.7 million (8.6%) compared to October 2020.

The IFO released its monthly update that tracks the state labor market. The jobs shortfall expanded in September on a year-over-year (YOY) basis relative to a no-pandemic scenario. For September, the computed YOY change in payroll jobs is -384,800, compared to -365,500 for August.

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of inflation on the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers and the real value of public pension benefits.

The October edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

Director Matthew Knittel provided a demographics and labor market update to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce.

This research brief uses preliminary data for 2020 and 2021 (through September) to compute excess deaths above pre-COVID historical trends in the Commonwealth for those two years. The analysis finds 20,700 excess deaths in 2020 and projects 6,700 excess deaths for 2021.

The IFO released a research brief that provides a status update and outlook for public pension systems in Pennsylvania. Data for state and local systems show that while the fiscal health of public pension systems has improved in recent years, the overall unfunded liability remains significant.

The IFO presented the PBB Addendums and revised KSDZ Tax Credit report to the Performance Based Budget Board.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the United Government Security Officers of America (UGSOA).

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Human Services (Part 2).

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Department of Transportation.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to develop performance-based budget plans for all agencies under the Governor’s jurisdiction once every five years. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Department of Transportation, Department of Human Services (Part 2), Department of Military and Veterans Affairs and Pennsylvania State Police.

Click on the link to access the performance-based budget review for the Pennsylvania State Police.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Report.

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past nine budget cycles.

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2021-22 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2021 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2021-22 state budget.

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation on property taxes to the House Majority Policy Committee.

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019.

Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 

Director Matthew Knittel presented an economic and revenue update to the PA Association of Community Bankers.

Director Matthew Knittel provided testimony regarding the state pension systems to the House State Government Committee, Subcommittee on Public Pensions, Benefits and Risk Management.

This research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

The July edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Director Matthew Knittel provided a state pension system update for the PICPA Not-for-Profit and Government Accounting Conference.

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its official revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. Updated estimates for FY 2020-21 are included.

Methodology

Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update for the PACP Chamber Day.

The June edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends.

This update examines 2020 impact fee collections and provides an outlook for 2021. The Commonwealth collected $146.3 million in impact fees for 2020, a $54.1 million decrease from 2019 and the lowest amount since the fee's inception.

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

The Commonwealth collected $3.95 billion in General Fund revenues for May, an increase of $1.84 billion (87.5%) compared to May 2020.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its initial revenue estimate for FY 2021-22. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

This report for the first quarter of 2021 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts.

The IFO will release its Initial Revenue Estimate on Wednesday, May 26th at 1:00PM. The report will contain revisions to the FY 2020-21 estimate and an initial estimate for FY 2021-22. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

The May edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

The Commonwealth collected $3.96 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $1.78 billion (81.7%) compared to April 2020.

The April edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania State Police and the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs is posted on the website.

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Department of Transportation and the Department of Human Services (Part 2).

IFO presentation of the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credit Reviews.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program Tax Credit Report.

IFO Letter to the SCC

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Neighborhood Assistance Program Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the third year, the IFO reviewed the Neighborhood Assistance Program, Resource Enhancement and Protection Program, Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program, Video Game Production and Keystone Special Development Zone Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Video Game Production Tax Credit Report.

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2021-22 Executive Budget released February 2021. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

Director Matthew Knittel gave a brief presentation to the Senate Majority Policy Committee on the impact of COVID-19 on the state economy.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment based on gender, net domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states.

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

The IFO responded to a question raised at the office’s budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee. The question was related to the indirect costs associated with state marijuana legalization that may not be reflected in official revenue estimates.

The March edition of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic and fiscal trends. 

Director Matt Knittel made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent computation of the Act 1 Index.

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

Director Matt Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Commerce Committee on the proposal to raise the minimum wage. The hearing was originally scheduled for February 16, 2021 but was rescheduled to March 11, 2021.

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its scheduled budget hearings. This packet examines the minimum wage, personal and corporate income tax and other proposals included in the FY 2021-22 Executive Budget.

This report for the fourth quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.)

This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020.

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

This report uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2020 Impact Fee collections (remitted April 2021). Collections are estimated to be $144.9 million, a decrease of $55.9 million from the prior year.

Director Matthew Knittel provided an economic update to the PA Association of Community Bankers.

This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications.

This report for the third quarter of 2020 uses data collected by the PA Department of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. 

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives and the PICA 2020 Fall Conference.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the United Government Security Officers of America (UGSOA).

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its October Revenue and Economic Update. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. 

This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook.

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past eight budget cycles.

This report provides revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the IFO on June 22, 2020. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2020-21 state budget.

Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee (Democrat).

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office examined how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year.

Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman made a presentation to the Center for Energy Policy and Management at Washington & Jefferson College regarding regional natural gas trends and how they are affecting the state's Impact Fee.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania State  Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Unit.

As required by Act 20 of 2019, this report examines the economic impact from the regulation of single-use plastics. The report considers three types of regulation that have been enacted by other states and local jurisdictions: a ban, a fee and a ban-plus-fee. The report examines potential outcomes if these regulations were implemented statewide for plastic retail bags. The analysis is also extended to a ban on expanded polystyrene foam foodservice products.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association (PSCOA).

This report examines impact fee collections for 2019 and provides an outlook for 2020.

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2019-20 and official estimates for FY 2020-21 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation. 

Presentation

Methodology

This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20 are included. 

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and updated estimates for FY 2019-20.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued a cost analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 668 Unemployment Compensation (UC) Referees.

The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy.

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey to provide Pennsylvania property tax data for 2018 by county, household income and homeowner age.

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association on property tax data recently published by the IFO.

The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee.

The IFO responded to questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the House Appropriations Committee.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO conducted a preliminary analysis on the state and county impacts of the Family First Prevention Services Act.

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings.

Testimony

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads.

Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25.

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony to the Senate Democratic Policy Committee regarding the potential impact of combined reporting on corporate net income tax revenues.

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20. The revised estimate is $35.738 billion, which is $220 million higher than the IFO’s official estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2020-21, revenues are projected to be $37.117 billion, an increase of 3.9 percent over the current year. The IFO will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in late May.

IFO presentation of Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, Research and Development and Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Reviews and Performance-Based Budget highlights for the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Health and Department of Human Services.  

IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency, Department of State and Department of Environmental Protection.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Research and Development Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit Report.

Act 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits.

Click on the link to access the Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit Report.

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office analyzed new or expanded tax credits and special zones approved by the General Assembly since 2009.

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Grow PA Coalition on the Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Outlook.

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a set of proposed school district property tax rebates for all homestead property owners.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that expands upon a prior analysis on the impact of a proposed minimum wage increase.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code affecting personal income and sales and use taxes.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates potential replacement revenues for school district property taxes described in House Bill 13.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes (1) state spending dedicated to seniors, (2) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors and (3) potential changes in senior migration patterns due to proposed tax law changes.

This research brief uses state personal income tax data to estimate natural gas royalties paid to landowners in 2017. The data suggest that royalties paid increased significantly from the prior year due to increased production and higher prices.

This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and AFSCME.

This report examines the performance of IFO revenue estimates for the past seven budget cycles.

This report examines impact fee collections for 2018 and provides an outlook for 2019.

This report provides revised revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and official estimates for FY 2019-20 related to the General Fund, Motor License Fund, Lottery Fund and federal funds subject to appropriation. 

Methodology

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants regarding an update on Pennsylvania's budget and economic landscape.  

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19 are included. For the PowerPoint presentation, click on the hyperlink above.

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation on the initial revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and updated estimates for FY 2018-19.

In partnership with the Pennsylvania Economy League, Director Matthew Knittel and Deputy Director Brenda Warburton will make multiple presentations on raising the state minimum wage to $12.00 per hour. The presentation examines the proposed minimum wage’s impact on employment, worker incomes, prices and state spending.

This report provides estimates for the revenue proposals contained in the 2019-20 Executive Budget released February 2019. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under 71 Pa.C.S. § 4104. The act requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget."

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads.

Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that computes the level of personal income tax (PIT) increase needed to fully fund a 100% homestead exclusion for school district property taxes.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States (December 2018). The letter also compares Pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states.

In response to a legislative request, the IFO has updated projections regarding school district property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be subject to replacement under potential legislation that would eliminate school property taxes.

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief related to the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program. The brief provides historical data of the program and examines the potential impact of proposed legislation.

This research brief was updated November 12, 2019 to take Act 43 of 2019 into consideration.