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Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted

This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP).   

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child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted

This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP).   

03/21/2024

Senate Budget Hearing Request

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to net migration for Pennsylvania, U3 and U6 unemployment rates, tax burden and labor force participation rates for Pennsylvania and border states, Pennsylvania’s declining workforce and the Pennsylvania child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit.

04/05/2023

Post-Pandemic child Care Cliff

The IFO posted a second research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the impact that nearly $820 million in federal support had on the child care industry and its employees, and the funding cliff the industry will encounter in the near future.

02/23/2023

SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February

The IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief quantifies the impact from the end of SNAP emergency allotments in February 2023. This research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child.

01/27/2023

child Care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania

The report provides an overview of the economic impacts of state spending on subsidized child care and no-cost pre-kindergarten programs in Pennsylvania.

09/06/2017

PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

3: FFS Long-Term Care.......................................................................................................... 29 Activity 4: Adult Protective Services.................................................................................................... 31 Activity 5: Licensing and Inspections .................................................................................................. 35 Activity 6: Child Care Works ............................................................................................................... 37 Activity 7: Quality Child Care ............................................................................................................. 43 Activity 7: Quality Child Care (Addendum) .......................................................................................... 49 Activity 8: Early Intervention ............................................................................................................. 51 Activity 9: Home Visiting and Family

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Performance-Based Budgeting ...................................................................................... 1 Department of Human Services Overview ............................................................................................. 3 Activity 1: MA — Physical Health Services ............................................................................................. 9 Activity 2: County Child Welfare ......................................................................................................... 15 Activity 2: County Child Welfare (Addendum) ..................................................................................... 21 Activity 3: Statewide Adoption and Permanency Network .................................................................... 23 Activity 4: ChildLine .......................................................................................................................... 27 Activity 5: Child Abuse Clearances

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

of lower-wage workers based on hourly wage rates, part- or full-time status, gender, age and marital/child status. Following these descriptive statistics, the 19 The OES program conducts a semiannual survey designed to produce estimates of nonfarm employment and of Economic Research. Minimum Wage | Page 27 Table 2.4 provides similar breakdowns based on age and marital/child status. The data show that 200,000 (3 percent) jobs were held by workers between the ages of 16 and 19, and

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

and Benefits ............................................................................... 31 Activity 10: SNAP Eligibility and Authorize Benefits ............................................................... 35 Activity 11: Employment Supports ...................................................................................... 39 Activity 12: Child Support Enforcement ............................................................................... 43 Activity 13: LIHEAP Eligibility and Benefits........................................................................... 45 Activity 14: Other Program Eligibility/Benefits ...................................................................... 49 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 51 Performance-Based Budgeting activity include:  There were 955,000 SNAP households that received benefits, serving 1.8 million adults and chil- dren. Approximately 115,000 individuals were enrolled in TANF, of which 31,000 were adults and 84,000 were children. 

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RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf

have struggled to retain employees and fill job vacancies. That outcome could be partly due to a lack of affordable child care options for working families, as the child care industry has yet to revert to pre-pandemic employment levels. In June 2020, industry payroll employment (excludes self-employed

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RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act used to cover facility costs (e.g., rent, mortgage and utilities) and/or to retain or attract employees, as private child care employment contracted by 8,700 in 2020 (-19.5%). 1 By 2023, private child care employment had largely recovered

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

Budgeting ...................................................................................... 1 Department of Education Overview ...................................................................................................... 3 Activity 1: K-12 Education ................................................................................................................... 9 Activity 2: Special Education .............................................................................................................. 29 Activity 3: Child Development and Early Learning ................................................................................ 35 Activity 4: Postsecondary and Higher Education .................................................................................. 39 Activity 5: Career and Technical Education ......................................................................................... 45 Activity 1 K-12 Education....................................... Administer subsidies to local education agencies 2 Special Education................................... Monitor special education to improve performance 3 Child Development and Early Learning....... Ensure high quality early learning 4 Postsecondary and Higher Education........ Authorize and administer funds for postsec

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

and Recommendations ............................................................................. 5 County Benchmarks ........................................................................................................... 9 Activity 1: Criminal Justice System Improvements ................................................................ 13 Activity 2: Victim Services and Child Advocacy ..................................................................... 17 Activity 3: Juvenile Justice System Improvements ................................................................ 21 Activity 4: Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention ........................................................ 23 Activity 5: Sheriff and Constable and non-profits for evidence-based practices ($2.5 million).  Children’s Advocacy Centers and services for child victims of abuse ($5.7 million).  Grants to address issues of substance abuse ($3.8 million). PCCD also awarded $64.0

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

2117 Harrisburg, PA 17120-2055 Dear Representatives Boback and Petrarca: This letter responds to your request for an analysis of child welfare program funding in Pennsylvania from federal, state and local sources. Specifically, your letter requests a fiscal analysis of the of the conclusion of the Fiscal Year 2020-21 budget hearings. If this schedule changes, we will contact your office. Child Welfare Program Funding in Pennsylvania For state fiscal year (SFY) 2017-18, child welfare program spending reported through the Act

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf

to increase by 128,200 in 2025 and 302,800 by 2030. Senator Street requested how expansion of the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit could impact economic growth. The new Pennsylvania child and dependent care enhancement tax credit is equal to 30% of the credit claimed for federal tax purposes. For tax

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

23 Activity 7: Vital Statistics .................................................................................................... 27 Activity 8: Women, Infants and Children (WIC) ................................................................... 29 Activity 9: Maternal and Child Health .................................................................................. 31 Activity 10: Health Research .............................................................................................. 33 Activity 11: Public Health & Emergency Medical Services ...................................................... 35 Activity 12: State Laboratory .............................................................................................. 37 Activity 13 events timely and accurately 8 Women, Infants and Children (WIC)............................. Administer the federal WIC program 9 Maternal and Child Health............................................... Improve the health of women, children and families 10 Health Research................................................................ Promote health research to benefit residents 11 Public Health and

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

following provisions: ▪ Economic Impact Payments (EIPs), commonly referred to as stimulus checks. ▪ Expanded unemployment compensation (UC) programs. ▪ Expansion of the Child Tax Credit for tax year (TY) 2021. ▪ Emergency allotments to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The analysis concludes with It also included a third round of larger, but more targeted, EIPs and modifications to several tax provisions, notably the Child Tax Credit for TY 2021. For CY 2020, the IFO estimates that $38.4 billion of direct federal stimulus flowed

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf

latest year available, pandemic impacted) January 25, 2022 5 Department of Human Services (DHS) Part 1 (2020): MA, SNAP, TANF, Child Support (50%) Part 2 (2021): Mental Health, Developmental Programs, Youth (17%)* Part 3 (2022): Long-Term Living, Child Development, Administration, Other (33%) * Note: MA Physical Health Services was also included in Part 2 January 25, 2022 6 DHS

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf

do not support collection of outcome measures Technology plays a key role in driving efficiency and improved outcomes ▪ DHS: Future Child Welfare Case Management system will replace eight separate systems ▪ PennDOT: mobile field technology, automated system to track DLC wait times towards goals is not made April 27, 2021 8 Department of Human Services (DHS) Part 1 (2020): MA, SNAP, TANF, Child Support (50%) Part 2 (2021): Mental Health, Developmental Programs, Youth (20%)* Part 3 (2022): Long-Term Living, Child Development, Administration

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

killed in service during that surviving spouse’s lifetime. If the surviving spouse dies, the pension is paid to any child until the child is age 18. The survivors’ benefit is 50 percent of the pension the retiree was receiving, or the member would

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

for full tax forgiveness relative to the FPL for a head of household under age 65 with one or two child dependents is as follows: 15 ▪ For 1974, the ratios are 1.25 (one dependent) and 1.25 (two dependents). A due to assumptions relating to average wages and the ability to use federal funds to cover required spending for the Child Care Services and Child Care Assistance line items. Minimum Wage | Page 41 The department is currently revising the estimated impacts

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

4 % 15.2 2.2 % Public Health and Emergency Medical Services 75 7.2 % 42.1 6.2 % Maternal and Child Health 50 4.8 % 32.9 4.8 % Administration 45 4.4 % 8.2 1.2 % Women, Infants and Children 9 Health Research 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 9.5 Maternal & Child Health 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 State Laboratory 0

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index.cfm

economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." ... (Full Report) Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted Economics and Other March 21, 2024 This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion

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RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf

they were closed for at least 5 consecutive days during a month. If a school meets the criteria (or a child could not attend due to COVID-related reasons), then the child qualifies for benefits. For the 2020-21 school year, the reimbursement was $7.10 per day for a maximum of

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

various short- and long-term assumptions: ▪ Although Congress may enact or extend new social spending programs (e.g., the expanded Child Tax Credit), the forecast does not include new programs or extensions. Based on analyses from Moody’s and the Penn spring of CY 2022 to account for changes in household size and incomes. ▪ There were significant changes made to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for tax year (TY) 2021, in- cluding: increase in the maximum amount from $2,000 to $3

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Pensions

of a killed-in-service death benefit to the surviving spouse or, if there is no surviving spouse, the minor child of a paid firefighter, ambulance service or rescue squad member, or law enforcement officer in an amount equal to the after the act's effective date. Act 92 declared that survivor benefits were payable to the surviving spouse or dependent child, as applicable, provided that the surviving spouse was not remarried on April 17, 2002. The surviving spouse is entitled to

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

10,000), interest on home mortgage debt below $750,000, charitable contributions and other miscellaneous deductions. 1  Increased the child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000 (refundable up to $1,400), raised income eligibility limits (for married filing tax of Pennsylvania residents by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. While lower income taxpayers benefited from the larger child tax credit, higher income taxpayers benefited from lower marginal tax rates. Computation of Total Income Taxpayers report various types of

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

individual) that transfer another $21.4 billion to state residents in CY 2021. ▪ The ARP made significant changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for tax year (TY) 2021, includ- ing: increase in value from $2,000 to $3,000 ($3 5.85 SNAP Benefits 0.92 1.36 2.28 Economic Impact Payments 11.14 21.38 32.52 Expanded Child Tax Credit Awards -- 3.47 3.47 Total 38.40 39.57 77.97 Other Federal Programs Paycheck Protection Program

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PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf

terminals and games of skill. The Pennsylvania Lottery intercepts Lottery winnings to collect fines and restitution, delinquent taxes and back child support payments. In FY 2021-22, the Lottery recovered nearly $1.1 million, including $674,367 in Administrative Office of the Pennsylvania Courts (AOPC) court-ordered obligations, $233,900 in delinquent child support and $163,330 in delinquent state taxes. These offsets are statutorily set and could be expanded to recover other

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

no-pandemic scenario. Payroll jobs figure for 2021.3 reflects July only. Federal stimulus includes PPP loans, expanded SNAP, advance child tax credit payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates or changes are year-over-year except Real COVID millions of dollars $950m Note: EIP is economic impact payment. UC is extra federal Unemployment Compensation. CTC is advance child tax credit payments. Data shifts $160 million of delayed tax revenues from June-July 2020 to April-May 2020. EIP

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

individual) that transfer another $21.4 billion to state residents in CY 2021. ▪ The ARP made significant changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for tax year (TY) 2021, includ- ing: increase in value from $2,000 to $3,000 ($3 5.98 SNAP Benefits 0.92 1.44 2.36 Economic Impact Payments 11.14 21.38 32.52 Expanded Child Tax Credit Awards -- 3.47 3.47 Total 38.40 40.50 78.90 Other Federal Programs Paycheck Protection Program

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

the cohort under age 19. The decline is generally attributable to stagnant fertility rates combined with longer delays to begin child bearing. For the 20-39 year age cohort, the model projects an expansion of 4.6 percent. For the 40- has grown by nearly 8.8 million since the start of the recession. Two factors explain this robust growth. First, child enrollments are particularly sensitive to economic conditions compared to other groups. From December 2007 to December 2010, an additional 4

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

to the pandemic and associated restrictions and/or changes in behavior. It is expected that some who forgo having a child in 2020 and 2021 may choose to have a child in 2022. For that reason, births in 2022 are expected to rebound from 2021 lows. The forecast assumes trends prior

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

of lower-wage workers based on hourly wage rates, part- or full-time status, gender, age and marital/child status. Employer characteristics are also examined based on industry and employer size. Following these descriptive statistics, the analysis computes the impact of of Labor Statistics. Minimum Wage | Page 21 Table 2.3 provides similar breakdowns based on age and marital/child status. The data show that 179,000 (3 percent) primary jobs were held by workers between the ages of 16 and 19

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RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf

16 billion, includes state amounts above “normal” payments), economic impact payments (EIPs, $23 billion), emergency SNAP benefits ($4 billion), expanded child care tax credits (CTC, $3 billion), Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans to certain businesses ($4 billion) and non-profits ($1 SNAP & P-EBT include emergency SNAP benefits and the P-EBT program and CTC is the expanded portion of the Child Tax Credit. Source: Pandemic relief program monies (excluding PPP data) and population data are from the U.S. Bureau of

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf

8 *% Curriculum and Assessments 25 5.3% 70 0.4% Career and Technical Education 23 4.8% 211 1.2% Child Development and Early Learning 14 3.1% 667 3.8% Total 464 100.0% 17,356 100.0% Note: Expenditures Appropriations (FY 2021-22) March 9, 2022 3 Appropriations K-12 Special Education Post. and Higher Education Student Supp. Servs. Child Dev. and Early Learning Other Total Basic Education Funding $7,067 -- -- -- -- -- $7,067 School Employees' Ret. 2,543 -- -- $137 -- $55

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf

8 *% Curriculum and Assessments 25 5.3% 70 0.4% Career and Technical Education 23 4.8% 211 1.2% Child Development and Early Learning 14 3.1% 667 3.8% Total 464 100.0% 17,356 100.0% Note: Expenditures Appropriations (FY 2021-22) January 26, 2022 3 Appropriations K-12 Special Education Post. and Higher Education Student Supp. Servs. Child Dev. and Early Learning Other Total Basic Education Funding $7,067 -- -- -- -- -- $7,067 School Employees' Ret. 2,543 -- -- $137 -- $55

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

relating to wage payment, minimum wage and overtime. It also enforces additional laws that protect workers’ rights, including those regulating child labor, seasonal farm labor, industrial homework, equal pay, medical fees required for employment, apprenticeship and training, misclassification of construction employees 229 115 59 Workers impacted 700 720 755 710 430 458 Administrative penalties ($ thousands) $383 $360 $567 $532 $324 $344 Child Labor Investigations 126 139 62 604 409 401 Investigations resulting in violations 26 28 48 57 56 114 Minors impacted

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to have a minimal impact on RTT collections. Inheritance Tax Parent to Child Transfers (Act 13) The act establishes a zero percent tax rate for transfers of property from a parent to a child age 21 or younger. This change applies to dates of death after December 31, 2019. Prior Law Transfers of property from a

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Analysis (July 2017)  Monthly and Quarterly Revenue Estimate (August 2017)  IFO State Government Committee Hearing (August 2017)  Child Care and Early Education Funding in Pennsylvania (September 2017)  PDA Wage Contract Analysis (September 2017)  School Property Tax that Itemize 28.7% 5.0% 17.2% 35.6% 50.2% 75.1% 95.5% 97.4% 96.0% Child Tax Credit Number Returns (000s) 1,286 391 357 212 161 165 0 0 0 Average Per Return $1,392

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf

all future years after FY 2024-25, the Executive Budget proposes to flat-line Basic Education, Special Education and County Child Welfare. This yields a modest long-term spending growth rate of 1.8% per annum. The IFO five-year outlook and Security Fund - Mental Health ($100 million)). MA is medical assistance, GO is general obligation. Basic Education Special Education County Child Welfare MA & Long-Term Living Intellectual Disability GO Debt Service Independent Fiscal Office 5 February 2024 Revenues – Fiscal Year-To-

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

30 -9 -22.2% Limited-Service Restaurant 161 154 -8 -4.9% Colleges and Universities 163 156 -8 -4.7% Child Care 47 43 -5 -9.5% Warehousing and Storage 94 108 14 15.2% Courier and Messengers 36 47 11 Medical Assistance $670 $222 $262 $306 $331 4.2% Long-Term Living 694 201 239 278 302 4.6 County Child Welfare 67 45 46 46 46 3.1 Intellectual Disability 228 82 84 86 89 3.3 Basic-Special Education

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

262 1,441 1,501 1,548 1,595 1,643 Mental Health 669 708 749 771 794 818 843 Child Development 467 477 497 503 509 514 519 Income Maintenance 195 232 236 241 246 251 256 Human Services Support 2020- 21 include the use of a short-term managed care payment shift ($480 million) and the delay of county child welfare costs until FY 2021-22 ($75 million).  Use of a temporarily-enhanced federal matching rate. Due to the

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

may be due to the death of the retiree, divorce from the retiree or, in the case of a dependent child, exceeding the age for which coverage is provided. Following notification of death, a retiree's dependents automatically receive one or due to a qualifying event such as the retiree’s death, a divorce or, in the case of a dependent child, exceeding the maximum age limit. COBRA is only available when the spouse or dependent has no other health insurance. This

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Releases

economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget." Full Report Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted March 21, 2024 | Economics and Other This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

1) families may file multiple applications with different schools, (2) a family may file but ultimately decide to send their child to another school, (3) a student may be denied admission to the school due to lack of eligibility or space STO Tax Credit was enacted in 2006 to incentivize private contributions to fund tuition grants for low- and middle-income chil- dren in Iowa to attend accredited, nonpublic schools in the state. Relevant program data from the report is as follows

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TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdf

filers that reported more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income. • More than 1.4 million filers claimed the regular child tax credit ($1.05 billion) and/or the refundable child tax credit ($741 million). A small number of filers may claim both, so that the number of unique filers is

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Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf

3 38.4 60.0 Neighborhood Assistance Programs 18.0 18.0 33.6 35.9 36.0 36.0 Child and Dependent Care Enhancement -- -- -- -- 25.4 83.3 Entertainment and Economic Enhancement 5.6 4.0 4.0 3.6 Film Tax Credit and $24 million for the Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program. • Taxpayers claimed $25.4 million for the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit in FY 2022-23. The program was recently expanded beginning in tax year 2023

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

134 88 765 New pass-through business deduction -415 -542 -758 Pass-through business loss limits 150 140 114 Expand Child Tax Credit (CTC) and new non-child dependent credit -573 -511 -532 Penn Wharton Budget Model 13 Individual Revenue Effect 2018-2027 (billions of $) Revenue Effect 2018-

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

Bags per Week Bags per Year One adult, no children 191 8 406 One adult, at least one child 26 15 757 Two adults, no children 389 12 610 Two adults, one child 79 12 646 Two adults, multiple children 99 16 829 Other (more than two adults) 263 14 720 Total 1,047 12

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf

Budget, the minimum wage initiative (increase to $15 per hour) results in higher costs for DHS as reflected in the Child Care Services (+$3.1 million) and Child Care Assistance (+$2.3 million) line items. DHS informed the IFO that any public assistance savings resulting from the higher

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

line item (-$7.4 million) and higher costs in the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) (+$2.6 million); County Child Welfare (+$2.1 million); and Child Care Assistance (+$38,000) line items. CY 2019 CY 2022 Change Non-Tipped Workers $7.25 to $9.99 506

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

CY 2022. Residual amounts of funding support from Economic Impact Payments (stimulus checks), ex- panded federal unemployment benefits and expanded child tax credits provides nearly $400 million to Pennsylvania residents in CY 2022. 2020 2021 2022 Total Payments to Individuals or 0.9 1.8 1.5 4.2 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 Expanded Child Tax Credits -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Rental and Homeowner Assistance -- 2.0 0.0 2.0 Paycheck Protection

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

CY 2022. Residual amounts of funding support from Economic Impact Payments (stimulus checks), ex- panded federal unemployment benefits and expanded child tax credits provides nearly $400 million to Pennsylvania residents in CY 2022. 2 See “Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting 0.9 1.8 1.5 4.2 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 Expanded Child Tax Credits -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Rental and Homeowner Assistance -- 2.0 0.0 2.0 Paycheck Protection

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

by one-half for the U.S. (state-level data are not available on a monthly basis).  Child care services dropped by roughly 40 percent.  Business employment services (e.g., temporary workers) declined by roughly one-quarter.  Couriers- 1.7 3.0 -4.2 -61.9 Dentist Offices 1.3 1.3 -0.9 -52.9 -- -- -- -- Child Care 3.5 3.1 1.2 -31.6 3.1 2.5 0.8 -40.8 Employment Services 0.7 -0

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

557 4.8 18,918 -3.3 Social Services 1,166 1,100 -5.7 924 -16.0 Child Services 966 1,070 10.7 1,124 5.0 Administration Grants 542 489 -9.7 451 -7.8 Children's Health funds for programs that promote self-sufficiency, dis- courage substance abuse and provide shelters to counter domestic violence. Child services grants ($1.1 billion) reimburse counties for various programs that provide services to eligible children. Administration grants ($451 million) provide for

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Commonwealth’s information with the National Motor Vehicle Titling Information System, (3) assist the Department of Human Services’ collection of child support, (4) manage registration and titling for all-terrain vehicles and snow mobiles for the Department of Conservation and Natural system that tracks wait times more accu- rately and the provision of new ser- vices (e.g., REAL ID issuance, child IDs, CDL requirements and addi- tional verifications and systems checks). The regional detail of customers served within 30 minutes reveals

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

S. in April (state-level data are not available on a monthly basis), but recovered in May.  Child care services for Pennsylvania dropped by 43.5 percent in April and 28.3 percent in May. YOY Growth Rate, United States 3.0 -4.2 -64.7 -56.5 Dentist Offices 1.3 -2.6 -55.1 -29.8 -- -- -- -- Child Care 3.1 -0.4 -33.1 -29.0 2.5 0.8 -43.5 -28.3 Employment Services -0.1 -1

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

provide funds for programs that promote self-sufficiency, discourage substance abuse and provide shelters to counter domestic violence. Child services grants ($1.2 billion) reimburse counties for various programs that provide services to eligible children. Administration grants ($451 million) provide for 729 5.8 19,131 -3.0 Social Services 1,166 1,100 -5.7 938 -14.7 Child Services 966 1,090 12.8 1,174 7.7 Administration Grants 542 489 -9.7 451 -7.8 Children's Health

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

funds for programs that promote self-suffi- ciency, discourage substance abuse and provide shelters to counter domestic violence. Child services grants ($1.1 billion) reimburse counties for various programs that provide services to eligible children. Administration grants ($489 million) provide for 18,653 1.7 19,401 4.0 Social Services 1,164 1.3 1,098 -5.7 Child Services 966 3.4 1,070 10.7 Administration Grants 542 2.3 489 -9.7 Children's Health Insurance 411 6

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

after December 31, 2022 and is projected to reduce FY 2022-23 PIT estimated revenues by $1.5 million. Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Program (Act 53) The act provides for a new refundable PIT credit for eligible taxpayers who receive the federal child and dependent care tax credit. The credit is equal to (1) 30% of the expenses incurred and claimed for purposes

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MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf

and is projected to reduce FY 2023-24 table games tax revenues by $5.0 million. Personal Income Tax Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Program (Act 34) The act expands the refundable PIT credit for eligible taxpayers who receive the federal child and depend- ent care tax credit. The credit is now equal to (1) 100% (formerly 30%) of the expenses incurred

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

local tax (SALT) deduction, a near doubling of the standard deduction, elimination of personal exemptions and an expansion of the child tax credit. The federal data show that the dollar amount of SALT deductions claimed fell by 80% from the prior year, while charitable contribution deductions declined by one-third. Child tax credits (refundable and non-refundable) increased by $2.5 billion. Combined with lower rates and other changes, the TCJA

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Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf

7.2% Services to Buildings-Dwellings 85 74 -11 -12.9% Transit and Ground Passenger 25 15 -10 -38.2% Child Care 48 41 -7 -13.5% Jobs Expansion (000s) Transportation and Warehouse 93 106 13 14.3% Couriers and Messengers September ▪ Extended to 79 weeks | extra $300 per week | PUA program (~$515/wk) ▪ Not yet reflected in the data Extra Child Tax Credits start to be paid out in July ▪ PA: 1.3 million payments (2.2 million children) | average of

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

funds for programs that promote self-suffi- ciency, discourage substance abuse and provide shelters to counter domestic violence. Child services grants ($1.0 billion) reimburse counties for various programs that provide services to eligible children. Administration grants ($487 million) provide for 18,595 1.4 19,278 3.7 Social Services 1,164 1.3 1,085 -6.8 Child Services 966 3.4 1,000 3.5 Administration Grants 542 2.3 487 -10.2 Children's Health Insurance 411 6

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf

0.6 0.2 2.7 Economic Impact Payments 11.2 22.1 0.8 0.0 34.1 Expanded Child Tax Credit -- 3.4 0.7 0.0 4.1 Employee Retention Credit -- 1.0 2.2 0.0 3.2 Sick-Family Leave Credit (Self-Employed only) -- 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 Higher Child/Dependent Care Credit -- 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 Emergency Rental Assistance -- 0.6 0.6 0.4

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

0.9 1.8 1.0 3.7 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 New Child Tax Credit Awards -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Rental and Homeowner Assistance -- 1.8 0.0 1.8 Paycheck HCBS -- -- 72% 65% 68% 68% CHC ED visits per 1,000 member months 1 -- -- 32.5 70.1 77.6 -- Child Care Works % enrolled in STARS 3/4 facilities 31% 33% 36% 36% 41% 42% Children's uninsured rate (U.S

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

25 25-26 All Medical Assistance $2,292 $357 $354 $374 $361 Intellectual Disability 351 72 73 75 77 County Child Welfare 146 56 44 44 44 Mental Health 55 28 26 26 28 PSERS Contribution 114 164 150 143 169 DHS, PSP, DCJ, DOH Enhanced FMAP $2,070 assumed to end 2021 Q2 DHS cost shifts $555 managed care, county child welfare REHP reduction ~$90 contributions for retiree healthcare Note: Millions of dollars. General Fund Financial Statement January 21, 2021 20

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

0.9 1.8 1.0 3.7 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 New Child Tax Credit Awards -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Rental and Homeowner Assistance -- 1.8 0.0 1.8 Paycheck DCJ, DOH Enhanced FMAP $2,070 $2,200 assumed to end 2022 Q2 DHS cost shifts $555 managed care, county child welfare REHP reduction ~$90 ~$90 contributions for retiree healthcare Note: Millions of dollars. Primary Cost Drivers: Annual Change in Spending

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

DHS, PSP, DCJ, DOH Enhanced FMAP $2,070 assumed to end 2021 Q2 DHS cost shifts $555 managed care, county child welfare REHP reduction ~$90 contributions for retiree healthcare Note: Millions of dollars. Primary Cost Drivers: Annual Change in Spending February 25 25-26 All Medical Assistance $2,292 $357 $354 $374 $361 Intellectual Disability 351 72 73 75 77 County Child Welfare 146 56 44 44 44 Mental Health 55 28 26 26 28 PSERS Contribution 114 164 150 143 169

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

Air Quality 54 TANF Eligibility and Benefits 217 Mining Programs & District Op. 52 Employment Supports 190 Water Resource Planning 37 Child Support Enforcement 185 Administration 35 Other Program Eligibility and Benefits 166 Oil and Gas Management 32 Eligibility and Enrollment Systems Attraction & Financing 64 Health Research 55 Innovation Economy & Investments 42 Quality Assurance 50 Business and Workforce Assistance 29 Maternal and Child Health 44 Tourism Attraction & Development 24 Drug Surveillance & Misuse Prevent. 31 Local Government Operat. Support 20 Vital Statistics 22 Site

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Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf

2015 (140,000) through 2030 (127,000). The decline in births is due to a contraction in younger females of child-bearing age and declining fertility rates among those females. The decline in young female fertility rates is not unique to 3.1. For example, in 2015, 9.9% of all Pennsylvania females age 25 to 29 gave birth to a child. From 2015 to 2020, the average maternal age at birth increased from age 28.8 to age 29.6. However

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Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf

2010 (143,000) through 2030 (128,000). The decline in births is due to a contraction in younger females of child-bearing age and declining fertility rates among those females. The decline in fertility rates is not unique to Pennsylvania. The 3.1. For example, in 2010, 10.5% of all Pennsylvania females age 25 to 29 gave birth to a child. The share of females under age 30 who give birth is projected to decrease, while the share of females age

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

142,400) through 2030 (121,000). The decline in births is due to the decline in females of child-bearing age in Pennsylvania and declining fertility rates among these females. The decline in fertility rates is not unique to Pennsylvania. The For example, in 2010 10.4 percent of all females age 25 to 29 gave birth to a child in Pennsylvania. The 5 Martin, Joyce et al. “National Vital Statistics Reports.” U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

1986 (Public Law 99-514, 26 U.S.C. § 401(a)(17) or 415). * * * "Alternate payee." Any spouse, former spouse, child or 2016/90MSP/SB1071A10803 - 2 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1986 (Public Law 99-514, 26 U.S.C. § 401(a)(17) or 415). * * * "Alternate payee." Any spouse, former spouse, child or dependent of a member or participant who is recognized by a domestic relations order as having a right to

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Tax_Modernization_Mar_2024.pdf

Estimate 2023 Notes Tax Forgiveness ~$220 Two-thirds to <$20k taxable income Resident Credit ~$500 Tax paid to other states Child and Dependent Care ~$83 Recently expanded, no data yet Note: millions of dollars. Follow us on X (@ind_fisc_office) or sign

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State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf

of refundable credits paid to Pennsylvania residents, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit ($1.6 billion) and the Additional Child Tax Credit ($992 million). In general, wealthier states have higher average tax rates because the federal income tax is a

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State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf

3.2 billion of refundable credits paid to Pennsylvania residents, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Additional Child Care Tax Credit. It also excludes $2.9 billion of Premium and Advance Premium Tax Credits for qualified recipients enrolled

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

billion of refundable credits paid to Pennsylvania residents, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Additional Child Care Tax Credit. It also excludes $3.8 billion of Premium and Advance Premium Tax Credits for qualified recipients enrolled under the

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

9 1.8 1.5 4.2 Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 Expanded Child Tax Credit -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Paycheck Protection Program 20.7 10.0 0.0 30.7 Total

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

5.9 SNAP 0.9 1.4 2.3 Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) 11.1 21.4 32.5 Expanded Child Tax Credit 0.0 3.5 3.5 Total Individual Programs 38.4 39.6 78.0 PPP Forgivable Loans

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

61.9 Dentist Offices 1.3 1.3 -0.9 -52.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Child Care 3.5 3.1 1.2 -31.6 3.1 2.5 0.8 -40.8 Employment Services 0

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RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf

Pennsylvania, the current traditional rate is roughly 53% and applies to most Medicaid-funded programs (e.g., Medical Assistance (MA), child welfare, programs for persons with intellectual disabilities/autism, etc.). The newly eligible rate is 90% and applies to MA enrollees

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

o Wave of college-age students: more student loan debt. o Does debt cause delays in home purchases, marriage and child bearing, thereby restraining growth? 12.June.2014 5 Three Demographic Waves 12.June.2014 6 PA Demographics 2010 (Data are

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

Wave of college-age students: more student loan debt.  Does debt restrain growth by delaying home purchases, marriage and child bearing? 2015 Pennsylvania Population Distribution 7/14/2017 8 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 0-4 5-9

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

million in FY 2014‐15).  Additional short‐term measures were adopted for use in FY 2015‐16. • Deferred county child welfare and school social security payments ($260 million) and refinanced reimbursements for school construction ($300 million). • Shifted funding for PHEAA

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

to 2004. • Wave of college‐age students: more student loan debt. • Does debt cause delays in home purchases, marriage and child bearing, thereby restraining growth? 7 Three Demographic Waves 12.May.2016 2015 Snapshot by Generation thousands of residents 0 200

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PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf

5 $16.9 $0.1 -- -- Economic Impact Payments 11.2 22.1 0.8 -- -- Paycheck Protection 20.7 10.0 -- -- -- Child Tax Credit and ERC -- 4.4 2.9 -- -- SNAP and P-EBT 1.3 3.4 2.2 $0.4

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf

Staff turnover and average wages for contracted or third-party direct care workers that provide care to individuals served through child welfare, intellectual disabilities and mental health services programs Department of Military and Veterans Affairs ▪ Activity 1 – Veterans Homes: (1) Average

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf

in FY 21-22 ▪ By statute, Lottery also intercepts winnings to collect fines and restitution, delinquent DOR taxes and back child support payments | $1.1m in FY 21-22 PTRR program provides tax and rent rebates to lower-income, older residents

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PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf

millions. 1 Calculations by the IFO. -- Recommended Measure -- 2 See Notes on Measures. 3 Includes recovered funds for SNAP, MA, Child Care, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Long-Term Care, Health Insurance Premium Payment, Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, State

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PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf

group rate, complimentary/military tickets and facility usage. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Other Adult Child Members 94,750 89,489 95,535 5,370 50,049 Revenue Received by Category $0 $50 $100 $150 $200

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

related funding allocations by working with all 67 counties, more than 800 public and non-profit private schools and residential child care institutions, and more than 2,500 local food banks, pantries, and other non-profit partners who make up the

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

that trend, it could be the result of several factors that may include: (1) more attention paid to child welfare before a juvenile ends up in the system, (2) state residential placement reforms that move away from large, traditional facilities, and

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

6.0 SNAP 0.9 1.4 2.4 Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) 11.1 21.4 32.5 Expanded Child Tax Credit 0.0 3.5 3.5 Total Individual Programs 38.4 40.5 78.9 PPP Forgivable Loans

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf

made during the decedent’s lifetime. Transfers None. Exemptions Property transferred to a spouse or to a parent from a child under 21 years of age is exempt from the tax. Additionally, transfers to governmental entities, veteran organizations, charitable or fraternal

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

made during the decedent’s lifetime. Transfers None. Exemptions Property transferred to a spouse or to a parent from a child under 21 years of age is exempt from the tax. Additionally, transfers to governmental entities, veteran organizations, charitable or fraternal

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

made during the decedent’s lifetime. Transfers None. Exemptions Property transferred to a spouse or to a parent from a child under 21 years of age is exempt from the tax. Additionally, transfers to governmental entities, veteran organizations, charitable or fraternal

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

the decedent’s lifetime. Transfers None. Exemptions Property transferred to a spouse or to a parent from a child under 21 years of age is exempt from the tax. Additionally, transfers to governmental entities, veteran organizations, charitable or fraternal organizations and

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

the decedent’s lifetime. Transfers None. Exemptions Property transferred to a spouse or to a parent from a child under 21 years of age is exempt from the tax. Additionally, transfers to governmental entities, veteran organizations, charitable or fraternal organizations and

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

56.5 Dentist Offices 1.3 -2.6 -55.1 -29.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Child Care 3.1 -0.4 -33.1 -29.0 2.5 0.8 -43.5 -28.3 Employment Services -0

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

0.9 1.8 1.0 3.7 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 21.0 0.2 32.2 New Child Tax Credit Awards -- 3.4 0.1 3.5 Rental and Homeowner Assistance -- 1.8 0.0 1.8 Paycheck

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

9 1.4 SNAP Benefits 0.9 0.6 0.3 Economic Impact Payments 11.0 6.3 14.7 Child Tax Credit Awards 0.0 0.0 3.6 spread through year Total 43.6 13.9 25.7 Other

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf

Plan. A second round of PPP loans injected another $10.0 billion, expanded unemployment compensation $16.1 billion and advance child tax credits $3.4 billion. While much of those funds have been spent, Federal Reserve data on checking account balances

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Labor_Market_Update_July_2021.pdf

level because many recipients had only a marginal, if any, connection to the labor force. To the extent that available child care limits employment options, that issue will likely moderate as federal benefits approach expiration and former childcare workers return to

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

inflation ▪ No major stock or housing market correction Significant Policy Risks ▪ Stimulus impact lingers, but how much longer? ▪ Some remains | child tax credit and SNAP Property Taxes ▪ First look at COVID-19 impact on current-interim collections in April. ▪ Act 1

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IFO ppt.pdf

5.1 billion • Since Recession start: Nat’l MA enrollment increased by 8.8 million; Pa MA enrollment increased 165k • Child enrollment • Federal policy changes January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Public Welfare Average Annual

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

611 1,714 1,802 1,858 1,914 1,974 Mental Health 698 730 775 803 830 858 886 Child Development 462 515 532 544 552 560 568 Income Maintenance 223 277 287 295 302 309 316 Human Services Support

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

454 1,513 1,574 1,626 1,679 Mental Health 662 681 699 720 742 764 787 Child Development 488 486 491 498 505 511 517 Income Maintenance 201 202 206 210 214 219 223 Human Services Support 120 131

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EPLC_April_2024.pdf

9% 0.0% 2.3% Special Education 1,387 1,437 1,437 3.6% 0.0% 3.3% County Child Welfare 1,493 1,495 1,495 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% MA & LTL 11,307 11,799 13

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Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf

the table below were included within the “All Other” line within the slide presentation. Early intervention is included in the Child Development category, which is expected to grow 1.8% per annum between FY 2023-24 and FY 2027-28. February

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

47 -39 -70.7 -60.5 -42.8 Personal Care-Laundry -46 -45 -29 -64.7 -61.8 -39.6 Child Care -21 -16 -10 -43.5 -28.3 -20.1 Employment Services -30 -30 -22 -26.1 -22.5 -19

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

6 0.3 extended to Sept Economic Impact Payments 11.0 6.3 14.3 ARP at $1,400 per Child Tax Credit Awards 0.0 0.0 3.6 spread through year Total 43.6 13.9 25.4 Other

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

also be used this fiscal year. They include changing the timing of reimbursements for school employees’ Social Security and county child welfare payments ($260 million savings) and changes to the state reimbursement for school construction and renovation projects (PlanCon, $306 million

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2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

dollars. Extra SNAP/CTC/Rent Assist includes P-EBT, Sick and Family Leave ($0.4 billion, self-employed) and expanded Child and Dependent Care ($0.5 billion) refundable tax credits. Credits were attributable to tax year 2021 but received as a

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

Benefit Recipients Service connected disability benefit recipients Nonservice connected disability benefit recipients Survivor Benefit Recipients Surviving spouse benefit recipients Surviving child benefit recipients Designated survivor benefit recipients - 4 - Depending on the purpose of the postretirement adjustment, the desired coverage may include

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