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Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic

This research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19.

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cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic

This research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19.

12/11/2023

Philadelphia cigarette & Beverage Tax Impact

The IFO responds to a request regarding the impact of Philadelphia’s local cigarette and beverage taxes on state revenue collections. The letter has been revised to include current footnotes 3 and 6, which provide additional context for the assumptions used by the analysis.  (Revised on March 20, 2017)

03/13/2017

Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

not paid because firms merely forward any taxes they collect. Revenues that use the cash flow method include cigarette, realty transfer, fuels, lottery and sales and use taxes. For these revenue sources, tax liability is not accrued over the calendar year and certain imputed income) and, therefore, would not affect consumption-related tax revenues such as sales and use, cigarettes and table games or lottery purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf

are generally not paid because firms merely forward any taxes they collect. Revenues that use the cash flow method include cigarette, realty transfer, fuels, lottery and sales and use taxes. For these revenue sources, tax liability is not accrued over the pension funds and certain imputed income) and, therefore, would not affect consumption-related tax revenues such as sales and use, cigarettes and gaming or lottery purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

are generally not paid because firms merely forward any taxes they collect. Revenues that use the cash flow method include cigarette, realty transfer, fuels, lottery and sales and use taxes. For these revenue sources, tax liability is not accrued over the pension funds and certain imputed income) and, therefore, would not affect consumption-related tax revenues such as sales and use, cigarettes and gaming or lottery purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

are generally not paid because firms merely forward any taxes they collect. Revenues that use the cash flow method include cigarette, realty transfer, fuels, lottery and sales and use taxes. For these revenue sources, tax liability is not accrued over the pension funds and certain imputed income) and, therefore, would not affect consumption-related tax revenues such as sales and use, cigarettes and gaming or lottery purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

not paid because firms merely forward any taxes they collect. Revenues that use the cash flow method include cigarette, realty transfer, fuels, lottery and sales and use taxes. For these revenue sources, tax liability is not accrued over the calendar year and certain imputed income) and, therefore, would not affect consumption-related tax revenues such as sales and use, cigarettes and gaming or lottery purchases. The most complete report of the spendable or cash income of Pennsylvania residents appears on the annual

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RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf

Three separate excise taxes could be levied on cigarette sales in Pennsylvania: a federal tax ($1.01 per pack), a state tax ($2.60 per pack) and a local tax for sales that occur in Philadelphia ($2.00 per pack). The figure below displays the contraction in cigarette tax revenues for these levies since state fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. These taxes are levied on a per pack

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

be issued to Pennsylvanians in 2021, which suggests $1.5 billion will be used for personal consumption. Pandemic Boosts Pennsylvania Cigarette Tax Collections An article by the WSJ notes that the national trend of declining cigarette sales (-5.5% in 2019) has slowed during the pandemic. A review of cigarette tax collections from July 2020 to

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Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf

the Budget with estimated spending reductions from the October 2023 Fall Update (-$450 million) and incorporates a projected transfer from cigarette tax revenues (-$115 million) to the Tobacco Settlement Fund. Fiscal Year 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26- reduction of $215 million from the IFO’s Official Revenue Estimate released in June 2023. 4 The update assumes that cigarette tax revenues are reduced by $115 million for debt service related to the Tobacco Settlement Bonds. The remaining reduction is

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

Revenues as Share of State Personal Income Personal Income Tax 2.80% to 3.07% CSFT phase-out various years Cigarette Tax $0.31 to $1.00 Fiscal years ending June 30. Figure 3 18 are projected to decline slightly over levies comprise more than ninety percent of General Fund revenues: personal income, sales and use, corporate net income, gross receipts, cigarette and inheritance taxes. Table 3: General Fund Revenues fiscal years ending, millions of dollars Average Annual Growth Rates Economic Variables

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

For FY 2021-22, the ratio increased dramatically (+0.58 percentage points [ppts]) and increased for all revenues sources except cigarettes, which continued its long-term trend decline. The higher ratio translates into $5.1 billion of extra tax revenues. That final column), indicating that some factors that drove the FY 2021-22 revenue surge are assumed to be permanent. If cigarette tax revenues are excluded (not dependent on economic growth), then the ratio is 0.17 ppts higher in FY 2027-

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf

6 Elimination of the Enhanced Revenue Collections Account (ERCA) ...................................................... 7 Medical Marijuana Program Fund Transfer to the General Fund .......................................................... 7 Cigarette Tax Transfer to Tobacco Settlement Fund .......................................................................... 7 Personal Income Tax Transfer to Environmental Stewardship Fund .................................................... 7 Raise the Minimum Wage expenditures (as authorized under Act 16 of 2016). The proposal would increase FY 2023-24 nontax revenues by $32 million. Cigarette Tax Transfer to Tobacco Settlement Fund The proposal transfers cigarette tax revenues to the Tobacco Settlement Fund (TSF) for debt

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

This page intentionally left blank. - Table of Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Tax and Revenue Proposals ...................................................................................................... 3 Corporate Net Income Tax ............................................................................................................... 3 Cigarette Tax .................................................................................................................................. 5 Personal Income Tax ....................................................................................................................... 5 Gaming Taxes ................................................................................................................................. 5 Nontax Revenues ............................................................................................................................ 5 Raising the Minimum Wage ...................................................................................................... 7 Comparison to Other 292 -429 -967 Corporate Net Income Tax Note: Millions of dollars. Table 1.1 Tax and Revenue Proposals | Page 5 Cigarette Tax Transfer to Tobacco Settlement Fund The administration’s proposal creates a cigarette tax transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Tax and Revenue Proposals ...................................................................................................... 3 Corporate Net Income Tax ............................................................................................................... 3 Sales and Use Tax ......................................................................................................................... 14 Cigarette Tax ................................................................................................................................ 14 Personal Income Tax ..................................................................................................................... 15 Gaming Taxes ............................................................................................................................... 15 Raising the Minimum Wage .................................................................................................... 17 Minimum Wage Across States ........................................................................................................ 18 Recent Minimum Wage income tax (CNIT), (2) new transfers from the personal income tax (PIT), sales and use tax (SUT) and cigarette tax to various funds and (3) a modification of the transfer from the Video Gaming Fund to the General Fund. This analysis

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State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf

rates drive much of the ranking for the GLT tax category. For CY 2024, Pennsylvania levies the 15 th highest cigarette tax rate in the U.S. ($2.60 per pack), and the City of Philadelphia levies one of the highest 6.5%) and motor vehicle taxes (4.0%). Table 13 (page 16) displays rates for PIT, CNIT, SUT, gasoline and cigarette taxes. Data are from CCH AnswerConnect, the Tax Foundation, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Campaign for Tobacco-Free

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SR2017-03.pdf

drive much of the ranking for the gaming-liquor-other category. For CY 2017, Pennsylvania levies the 10 th highest cigarette tax rate in the U.S. ($2.60 per pack), and the City of Philadelphia levies the 2 nd highest cigarette tax rate ($4.60 per pack). Table 5 Gaming-Liquor-Other Taxes State Rank Amount Ratio State Rank Amount Ratio

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Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf

Motor 11,831-2.0 12,612 4.4 781 Motor 1,365-25.7 1,376-25.1 11 Cigarette 845 -3.3 776 -11.3 -69 Other Tobacco Products 164 9.6 152 1.9 -12 Malt Beverage 24 5 Non-Motor 12,612 4.4 12,645 0.3 Motor 1,376 -25.1 1,414 2.8 Cigarette 776 -11.3 732 -5.6 Other Tobacco Products152 1.9 160 4.9 Malt Beverage 22 -0.3 23

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

Motor 10,640 12.6 10,903 15.3 263 Motor 1,687 23.6 1,806 32.3 119 Cigarette 936 1.3 959 3.8 23 Other Tobacco Products 130 2.5 134 5.5 4 Malt Beverage 23 1 Non-Motor 10,903 15.3 10,789 -1.0 Motor 1,806 32.3 1,649 -8.7 Cigarette 959 3.8 870 -9.3 Other Tobacco Products 134 5.5 138 2.5 Malt Beverage 23 0.6

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Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf

Motor 11,831 -2.0 12,659 4.8 828 Motor 1,365 -25.7 1,354 -26.3 -11 Cigarette 845 -3.3 774 -11.4 -71 Other Tobacco Products 164 9.6 153 2.1 -11 Malt Beverage 24 6 Non-Motor 12,659 4.8 12,707 0.4 Motor 1,354 -26.3 1,385 2.3 Cigarette 774 -11.4 731 -5.6 Other Tobacco Products 153 2.1 160 4.9 Malt Beverage 23 0.6

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MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdf

store profits transfer consistent with assumptions reflected in the FY 2023-24 budget and (2) excludes the $115.3 million cigarette tax transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund which was included in the IFO’s official estimate. The adjustments are summarized estimate to the official estimate certified by the administration (Table 5) is included on the last page. FY 2023-24 Cigarette Tax $115.3 Liquor Store Profits -36.9 Total $78.4 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments Note: Figures indollar millions

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

1,053 11,831 SUT - Motor 119 120 118 123 98 110 104 75 116 137 130 114 1,365 Cigarette 37 95 100 86 91 95 50 73 76 -36 85 93 845 Other Tobacco Products 14 14 14 13 effective January 1, 2023 and is projected to increase FY 2022-23 non-motor SUT revenues by $0.2 million. Cigarette Tax Transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund (Act 54) Consistent with prior years, the act requires a one-time transfer

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MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf

2023-24 Corporate Net Income -$11.1 Insurance Premiums -6.0 Financial Institutions -25.2 SUT - Non-Motor 6.0 Cigarette -115.3 Gaming -5.0 PIT - Withholding -33.7 PIT - Annual -47.2 Inheritance 1.0 Other Miscellaneous 31.9 1,106 12,651 SUT - Motor 114 138 120 123 104 105 114 91 133 113 134 125 1,414 Cigarette 23 86 91 78 80 77 43 67 72 -45 79 82 732 Other Tobacco Products 13 13 14 13

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

Table 1. Additional detail regarding the recent enactments can be found in the next section. FY 2020-21 Cigarette -$115.3 Personal Income - Withholding -13.8 Licenses & Fees -1.1 Total -130.2 Table 1 General Fund Adjustments Note: Figures in 9,893 SUT - Motor 155 144 130 134 116 124 120 99 124 142 144 129 1,559 Cigarette 48 97 100 87 91 101 52 76 77 -31 88 95 881 Other Tobacco Products 11 10 11 10 12 11

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

Receipts -3.2 Insurance Premiums -5.7 Bank Shares -3.9 Sales and Use - Non-motor -0.1 Cigarette -115.3 Personal Income - Withholding -82.2 Personal Income - Annual -14.1 Realty Transfer -15.0 Inheritance -3.0 Gaming 17.9 9,996 SUT - Motor 135 138 132 133 122 118 123 96 130 143 144 135 1,548 Cigarette 58 102 104 93 98 104 58 81 83 -27 94 101 948 Other Tobacco Products 11 11 12 11 12 12

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

2.6% PIT - Withholding 9,680 3.1% -96 4.1% PIT - Other 3,376 8.4% 33 7.3% Cigarette and OTP 1,331 46.0% 448 -3.1% Inheritance 1,013 5.3% 4 4.9% Loan and Transfers PIT - Withholding 5,388 5,480 1.7% 2.9% PIT - Other 1,279 1,230 -3.8% -3.8% Cigarette and OTP 529 765 44.6% -3.8% Inheritance 515 533 3.4% 3.4% Cap. Stock & Franchise 98 32

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

Motor 10,640 12.6 10,958 15.9 318 Motor 1,687 23.6 1,811 32.7 124 Cigarette 936 1.3 967 4.6 31 Other Tobacco Products 130 2.5 135 6.1 5 Malt Beverage 23 3 Non-Motor 10,958 15.9 10,800 -1.4 Motor 1,811 32.7 1,677 -7.4 Cigarette 967 4.6 874 -9.6 Other Tobacco Products 135 6.1 139 2.6 Malt Beverage 24 1.4

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf

Note: Millions of dollars. Baseline Revenues for the Executive Budget and IFO assume an annual transfer of $115 million from cigarette taxes. The Executive Budget balance sheet is otherwise taken directly from the FY 2024-25 Governor's Executive Budget. The Sales and Use 8,495 106 1.3 Nonmotor 7,717 129 1.7 Motor Vehicle 778 -23 -2.8 Cigarette 439 -59 -11.8 Other Tobacco Products 86 -4 -4.1 Malt Beverage 12 -1 -5.8 Liquor 270 1

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

year, the forecast projects a transfer of $477 million and of $505 million by FY 2024-25.  Cigarette tax revenues are assumed to be reduced by $115 million annually for debt service related to the Tobacco Settlement Bonds. The text Insurance Premiums 444 455 444 453 454 486 488 Financial Institutions 380 372 391 407 425 445 465 Cigarette 1,119 948 885 826 777 734 698 Other Tobacco Products 130 135 140 145 151 158 165 Malt Beverage 24 23

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

contraction of revenues in the mitigation period. Especially notable was motor vehicle sales tax (due to dealer closures), cigarettes (due to processing delays) and realty transfer (due to the inability to show homes). By contrast, the recovery period reveals modest revenue up de- mand, federal unemployment and stimulus, lack of out-of-state travel, computer and appliance purchases) and cigarette (processing issues and psychological impact of pandemic) tax revenues. Table 1.5 Mitigation versus Recovery Periods: Annual Revenue Growth Rates Mitigation Recovery

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

0% 3.7% 4.4% 4.3% Income - Non-Withheld -7.9% 1.9% -0.9% 0.9% 35.1% Cigarette 51.6% 45.3% 39.4% 10.6% -11.1% All Other Tax -7.1% -4.0% 6.1% 5 9,975 3.8% 10 9,985 3.9% PIT - Other 3,347 9.7% -51 3,296 8.1% Cigarette 1,241 -1.7% 0 1,241 -1.7% Gaming Expansion 0 N/A 103 103 N/A Loan-Lease-

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State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf

rates drive much of the ranking for the sin taxes category. For CY 2023, Pennsylvania levies the 14 th highest cigarette tax rate in the U.S. ($2.60 per pack), and the City of Philadelphia levies one of the highest 4.3%). (Note: sin taxes include gaming, liquor and tobacco.) Table 12 (page 15) displays rates for SUT, PIT, CNIT, cigarette and gasoline taxes. Data are from the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation for CY 2023. 12 For

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State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf

rates drive much of the ranking for the sin taxes category. For CY 2021, Pennsylvania levies the 13 th highest cigarette tax rate in the U.S. ($2.60 per pack), and the City of Philadelphia levies one of the highest sin taxes include gaming, liquor and tobacco.) Table 12 (page 15) displays rates for sales, personal income, corporate net income, cigarette and gasoline taxes. Data are from the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation for CY 2021. 10 For

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

much of the ranking for the sin taxes category. For CY 2020, Pennsylvania levies the 13 th highest cigarette tax rate in the U.S. ($2.60 per pack), and the City of Philadelphia levies one of the highest rates in include gaming, liquor and tobacco.) Table 12 (page 15) displays rates for sales, personal income, corporate net income, cigarette and gasoline taxes. Data are from the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation for CY 2020. 12 For personal income

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

of the ranking for the gaming-liquor-tobacco category. For CY 2019, Pennsylvania levies the 12 th highest cigarette tax rate in the U.S. ($2.60 per pack), and the City of Philadelphia levies one of the highest rates in and CNIT (3.5 percent). Table 12 (page 15) displays rates for sales, personal income, corporate net income, cigarette and gasoline taxes. Data are from the Federation of Tax Administrators and the Tax Foundation for CY 2019. 12 For personal income

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf

1 Tax and Revenue Proposals ...................................................................................................... 3 Legalize Cannabis for Adult Recreational Use .................................................................................... 3 Regulate and Tax Games of Skill ...................................................................................................... 5 Cigarette Tax Transfer to Tobacco Settlement Fund .......................................................................... 6 Personal Income Tax Transfer to Environmental Stewardship Fund .................................................... 6 Realty Transfer Tax Transfer for FY 2024-25 and (2) regulation/operation of machines begins March 1, 2025. Tax and Revenue Proposals | Page 6 Cigarette Tax Transfer to Tobacco Settlement Fund The proposal transfers cigarette tax revenues to the Tobacco Settlement Fund (TSF) for debt

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

10,781 -1.9 12,078 9.9 1,297 Motor 1,677 -9.2 1,840 -0.4 163 Cigarette 874 -9.4 880 -8.7 6 Other Tobacco Products 139 2.7 150 11.4 11 Malt Beverage 24 0 Non-Motor 12,078 9.9 11,721 -3.0 Motor 1,840 -0.4 1,365 -25.8 Cigarette 880 -8.7 845 -4.0 Other Tobacco Products 150 11.4 164 9.0 Malt Beverage 23 -2.9

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

10,781 -1.9 12,008 9.3 1,227 Motor 1,677 -9.2 1,827 -1.1 150 Cigarette 874 -9.4 883 -8.4 9 Other Tobacco Products 139 2.7 151 11.9 12 Malt Beverage 24 7 Non-Motor 12,008 9.3 11,833 -1.5 Motor 1,827 -1.1 1,349 -26.2 Cigarette 883 -8.4 848 -4.0 Other Tobacco Products 151 11.9 164 8.4 Malt Beverage 23 -2.5

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

3.3% 6,076 -35 6,126 -85 PIT - Other 1,317 -9.5% 1,489 -172 1,591 -274 Cigarette 660 -6.2% 660 0 665 -4 Inheritance 594 6.5% 593 1 605 -11 Gaming Expansion 148 n.a 1% Sales - Motor Vehicle 4.1% 10.2% PIT - Withholding 3.9% 3.3% PIT - Other 2.2% -9.6% Cigarette -6.3% -6.2% Inheritance 6.3% 6.5% Gaming Expansion n.a. n.a. All Other -17.0% -12

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MRU_2023_06.pdf

estimate. The difference was the result of shortfalls in insurance premiums (-$15.2 million), realty transfer (-$8.5 million) and cigarette (-$7.8) tax revenues. Fiscal year other tax revenues were $5.98 billion, $12.7 million (0.2%) above projections tax collections, and was partially offset by shortfalls in realty transfer (-$137.2 million), bank shares (-$85.4 million) and cigarette (-$72.0 million) tax revenues. June non-tax revenues were $72.1 million, which exceeded projections by $44.9 million

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MRU_2022_12.pdf

7.3 million (1.9%) below estimate. The result is driven by shortfalls in realty transfer (-$20.3 million) and cigarette (-$13.9 million), which were partially offset by an overage in inheritance ($19.7 million) tax revenues. FYTD other tax revenues are $2.10 billion, $48.4 million (-2.3%) below projections. The FYTD shortfall is due to cigarette (-$51.4 million) and realty transfer (-$34.1 million), and is partially offset by an overage in inheritance tax collections

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MRU_2021_07.pdf

The increase was largely due to insurance premium collections (+$18.9 million) and realty transfer tax collections (+$16.2 million). Cigarette tax collections declined $30.7 million (-41.5%) from the prior year. (Note that delayed processing during the early months of the pandemic likely shifted some cigarette tax revenue from FY 2019-20 to July and August 2020.) July non-tax revenues were $28.4 million, a

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MRU-2022-11.pdf

which were $46.1 million (-12.3%) below estimate. The shortfall is driven by weak realty transfer (-$19.7 million), cigarette (-$8.9 million) and gaming (-$5.5 million) tax revenues. FYTD other tax revenues are $1.71 billion, $41.1 million (-2.3%) below projections. The FYTD shortage is due to cigarette (-$37.6 million), realty transfer (-$13.8 million) and minor and repealed (-$14.3 million) taxes which are under estimate

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

10,781 SUT - Motor 153 155 143 144 132 128 123 104 141 151 158 144 1,677 Cigarette 43 96 100 88 93 102 51 77 74 -34 87 96 874 Other Tobacco Products 12 12 12 11 13 12 reduce FY 2021-22 SUT revenues by $14.0 million, which will be partially offset by lower refunds. Cigarette Tax Transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund (Act 24) The act requires a one-time transfer from cigarette tax to the Tobacco

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

Tax Revenue Revenue Outlook | Page 27 Other Revenue Sources Other notable trends that affect General Fund revenues include the following: ▪ Cigarette tax revenues are assumed to be reduced by $115 million annually for debt service re- lated to the Tobacco Settlement 44 44 Insurance Premiums 452 461 484 523 528 536 543 Financial Institutions 423 441 459 481 502 525 549 Cigarette 964 903 880 847 815 774 733 Other Tobacco Products 135 140 145 150 154 159 164 Malt Beverage 23

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

4: Revenue Outlook | Page 25 Other Revenue Sources Other notable trends that affect General Fund revenues include the following:  Cigarette tax revenues are assumed to be reduced by $115 million annually for debt service related to the Tobacco Settlement Bonds 40 40 Insurance Premiums 474 424 456 464 468 503 508 Financial Institutions 393 382 402 419 438 457 477 Cigarette 924 936 863 826 789 754 720 Other Tobacco Products 127 130 134 137 140 143 146 Malt Beverage 23

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

Due Date Forecast 16 Impact of Federal Changes on Tobacco Taxes FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21 2-Year Impact Cigarette Tax -$5.7 -$21.7 -$27.4 Increase Purchase Age to 21 -5.7 -21.5 -27.2 Impact of 6 Increase Purchase Age to 21 -2.4 -10.1 -12.5 Smokeless -0.7 -2.7 -3.4 E-cigarettes -1.7 -7.4 -9.1 E-cigarettes Flavor Ban 0.0 -1.1 -1.1 Total Impact -8.1

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

8,467 300 3.7% SUT ‐ Motor Vehicle 772 782 9 1.2% 1,326 1,363 37 2.8% Cigarette 539 529 ‐10 ‐1.8% 927 912 ‐15 ‐1.6% Inheritance 595 515 ‐79 ‐13.3% 1,002 926 ‐76 weak bonuses. The forecast projects a rebound. Realty Transfer taxes also show strong growth. The 3‐5% annual decline in cigarette tax revenues has recently abated. Tax Year 2015 Payments, Annual Growth Rates Tax Year 2016 1st Est. 2nd Est. 3rd

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

game (14 percent) revenues. Those rates drive much of the ranking for the gaming-liquor-other category. For cigarettes, Pennsylvania levies the 20 th highest tax rate in the U.S. ($1.60 per pack). For motor fuels, Pennsylvania levies the local units are for FYE 2010. Table 8 lists selected rates for sales, personal income, corporate net income, cigarette and gasoline taxes. Data are from the Federation of Tax Administrators for calendar year 2012. 9 For personal income, the tax rate

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

Agency Fund Name Available Agriculture Agricultural Conservation Easement $41,617 Racing 62,995 State College Experimental Farm 0 Attorney General Cigarette Fire Safety 50 Auditor General Fire Insurance 68,521 Municipal Pension 301,730 Banking and Securities Banking 28,346 Community 726 37,480 36,943 25,034 Difference -4,724 1,573 4,052 9,050 10,465 -5,964 Cigarette Fire Safety and Firefighter Protection Act Enforcement Fund Receipts 13 101 20 23 118 30 Disbursements 0 0 0 0

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

pent-up demand PIT - Withholding -4.4% -2.4% better than expected PIT - Other -8.9% -6.6% meets expectations Cigarette -39.2% 8.6% COVID impact, processing Inheritance 5.9% -11.7% Realty Transfer -30.9% 6.2% pent-up Vehicle 1,559 1,307 252 PIT - Withholding 10,767 10,413 354 PIT - Other 4,612 4,752 -140 Cigarette 881 844 37 Inheritance 1,196 1,034 162 All Other Tax 3,111 2,998 113 All Non-Tax

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

a “baseline” growth rate that motivates the majority of General Fund revenues. Other sec- ondary (e.g., inheritance, cigarette and gross receipts) and minor (e.g., liquor and realty transfer) revenue sources will cause deviation from that baseline growth rate. Consumer 324 3.7 9,569 6.5 245 Motor 1,427 2.5 1,493 7.2 66 Cigarette 1,136 -5.2 1,131 -5.6 -5 Other Tobacco Products 119 0.1 130 9.0 11 Malt Beverage 23

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QRR_2015Q3.pdf

by $25 million. September payments were much stronger than the prior year following a similar occurrence in June. • Cigarette tax collections declined by 1.5 percent, which was better than the forecasted decline of 4.5 percent. • Realty transfer tax revenues 24.5% 4.3% 4.4% Other Revenues -16.8% -25.1% -16.8% -25.1% -12.1% Cigarette -1.5% -4.5% -1.5% -4.5% -3.8% Realty Transfer 20.4% 6.3% 20.4% 6.3% 4.5%

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Presentation_PA_Bus_Council_6-22-15.pdf

FY 2014-15 IFO Forecast Increases Decreases Corporate Net Income $336 Transfers -$95 Escheats 244 Casino Fees -75 Inheritance 79 Cigarettes -27 Sales and Use 45 Gross Receipts -12 Personal Income 61 All Other -12 All Other 38 Subtotal 803 Subtotal Equal to new severance tax less existing impact fee ($225 million per annum) starting in FY 2016-17. 4 Raises cigarette tax from $1.60 to $2.60 per pack. New 40% tax (wholesalers) on other tobacco products. 22.Jun.2015

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

a “baseline” growth rate that motivates the majority of General Fund revenues. Other sec- ondary (e.g., inheritance, cigarette and gross receipts) and minor (e.g., liquor and realty transfer) revenue sources will cause deviation from that baseline growth rate. Consumer 324 3.7 9,624 7.1 300 Motor 1,427 2.5 1,495 7.4 68 Cigarette 1,136 -5.2 1,121 -6.4 -15 Other Tobacco Products 119 0.1 130 9.2 11 Malt Beverage 23

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% PA Economy 3.4% Note: Tax revenue excludes non-tax, cigarette and CSFT. PA Economy is average annual growth rate of nominal GDP. Corp Net Income PIT Non-Wage Sales- Motor PIT Non-Wage Sales- Motor Tax Revenue PIT Wages Sales- Non-Motor Other Taxes Note: Tax revenue excludes non-tax, cigarette and CSFT. Excludes tax amnesty monies and SUT changes. PIT wage and tax revenue growth control for extra deposit day

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

tax revenues were $9.0 million (3.4 percent) below the prior year. The decline was mainly due to lower cigarette tax (-$14.5 million, -22.2 percent) and realty transfer tax (-$11.6 million, -35.6 percent) revenues. The reduction n.a. 945 n.a. n.a. PIT - Non-Withholding 78 n.a. n.a. 78 n.a. n.a. Cigarette 51 n.a. n.a. 51 n.a. n.a. Inheritance 99 n.a. n.a. 99 n.a. n

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

to-date (FYTD). Overages in corporate net income tax (CNIT) and insurance premiums tax offset shortfalls in gross receipts tax, cigarette tax and non-tax revenues. PIT collections were above estimate by $10.0 million for the month. The overage was collections ($14.4 million). Other taxes were $19.1 million short of estimate, with gross receipts (-$19.3 million) and cigarette tax (-$14.2 million) collections comprising the largest share of the shortfall. General Fund Snapshot General Fund Tax Revenue Non-

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MRU_2023_09.pdf

tax and non-tax revenues of $402.2 million for September were under estimate by $40.2 million (-9.1%). ▪ Cigarette tax collections of $83.9 million came in lower than expected by $7.5 million (-8.2%). However, the monthly 3,063.6 -13.8 PIT - Non-Withholding 559.9 639.7 -79.8 720.0 798.8 -78.8 Cigarette 83.9 91.4 -7.5 176.1 200.0 -23.9 Inheritance 110.2 134.7 -24.5 366

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MRU_2023_08.pdf

6% YOY decline in home sales for the state, with only a 2.0% increase in the median sales price. ▪ Cigarette tax collections of $76.9 million came in much lower than expected (-$8.8 million, -10.2%). ▪ Inheritance tax (+$17 2,088.6 -11.9 PIT - Non-Withholding 76.1 74.5 1.6 160.1 159.1 1.0 Cigarette 76.9 85.7 -8.8 92.1 108.6 -16.5 Inheritance 128.7 111.4 17.3 256

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MRU_2023_07.pdf

20.6%). Other tax and non-tax revenues increased $11.6 million (3.7%) from prior year collections. • Contractions in cigarette (-$15.3 million) and insurance premiums (-$24.6 million) tax revenues were partially offset by an increase in inheritance tax 3 n.a. n.a. PIT - Non-Withholding 84.1 n.a. n.a. 84.1 n.a. n.a. Cigarette 15.2 n.a. n.a. 15.2 n.a. n.a. Inheritance 127.9 n.a. n.a. 127

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MRU_2023_05.pdf

is partially offset by shortfalls in realty transfer (-$128.7 million), financial institutions (-$76.8 million, largely bank shares) and cigarette (-$64.2 million) tax revenues. May non-tax collections were $82.4 million, which exceeded projections by $47.2 million 9 -107.3 PIT - Non-Withholding 155.7 102.8 52.9 4,528.3 4,121.8 406.5 Cigarette 85.4 85.2 0.2 687.4 751.6 -64.2 Inheritance 131.4 133.9 -2.5 1

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MRU_2023_02.pdf

gross receipts (+$27.8 million) tax collections, and is partially offset by shortfalls in realty transfer (-$67.3 million) and cigarette (-$54.5 million) tax revenues. Non-tax collections for February were $49.8 million, which exceeded the forecast by $33 8 -80.0 PIT - Non-Withholding 82.0 65.5 16.5 2,200.4 1,823.3 377.1 Cigarette 74.2 73.2 1.0 572.1 626.6 -54.5 Inheritance 133.3 104.0 29.3 984

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MRU_2021_09.pdf

3 million (14.5%) more than expected. The FYTD overage is due to inheritance (+$64.1), gaming (+$16.4) and cigarette (+$13.9) tax revenues. September non-tax revenues totaled $39.1 million and were $30.2 million higher than projected 2,720.7 36.4 PIT - Non-Withholding 549.7 470.8 78.9 716.7 619.8 96.9 Cigarette 107.7 99.9 7.8 252.1 238.2 13.9 Inheritance 143.4 91.9 51.5 370

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MRU_2021_08.pdf

million for August, which were $14.5 million (4.2%) higher than the forecast. The overage was largely due to cigarette (+$5.5 million) and minor and repealed (+$4.8 million) collections but was somewhat offset by shortfalls in gross receipts 1,774.7 -3.7 PIT - Non-Withholding 75.4 73.7 1.7 166.9 149.0 17.9 Cigarette 101.0 95.5 5.5 144.3 138.3 6.0 Inheritance 110.0 109.6 0.4 227

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MRU_2021_05.pdf

than the estimate. All other tax revenue sources combined climbed $8.0 million above estimate for May, mostly due to cigarette (+$8.4 million), realty transfer (+$6.8 million) and financial institutions (+$6.0 million) revenues. The overage was partially offset 7.7 PIT - Non-Withholding 1,069.5 73.7 995.8 5,004.2 4,589.9 414.3 Cigarette 95.3 86.9 8.4 872.3 841.5 30.8 Inheritance 136.0 106.8 29.2 1

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MRU_2021_03.pdf

9 percent). Other revenue sources that surpassed estimates for March include inheritance (+$52.5 million), bank shares (+$17.8 million), cigarette (+$14.8 million), realty transfer (+$12.9 million) and minor and repealed (+$10.7 million) taxes. Gross receipts tax collections 6 5.3 PIT - Non-Withholding 214.3 179.6 34.7 3,095.6 2,943.5 152.1 Cigarette 87.5 72.7 14.8 792.6 776.6 16.0 Inheritance 155.7 103.2 52.5 963

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MRU_2021_02.pdf

April to the extent small business owners made quarterly payments related to forgiven PPP loans, which are now non-taxable. Cigarette tax collections exceeded estimate by $15.7 million (21.2 percent) for the month, along with insurance premiums ($17.5 0 -32.5 PIT - Non-Withholding 427.8 52.6 375.2 2,881.3 2,763.9 117.4 Cigarette 89.9 74.2 15.7 705.1 703.9 1.2 Inheritance 100.8 86.3 14.5 807

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MRU-2023-04.pdf

tax collections, and is partially offset by shortfalls in realty transfer (-$109.4 million), bank shares (-$83.5 million) and cigarette (-$64.4 million) tax revenues. April non-tax collections were $310.0 million, which exceeded projections by $48.4 million 8 PIT - Non-Withholding 1,893.4 1,975.8 -82.4 4,372.6 4,019.0 353.6 Cigarette -41.6 -35.9 -5.7 602.0 666.4 -64.4 Inheritance 118.7 127.4 -8.7 1

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MRU-2023-03.pdf

tax collections, and is partially offset by shortfalls in realty transfer (-$81.0 million), bank shares (-$82.4 million) and cigarette (-$58.7 million) tax revenues. Non-tax collections for March were $241.9 million, which exceeded the forecast by $67 6 -103.3 PIT - Non-Withholding 278.7 219.9 58.8 2,479.2 2,043.2 436.0 Cigarette 71.5 75.7 -4.2 643.6 702.3 -58.7 Inheritance 160.7 130.1 30.6 1

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MRU-2023-01.pdf

other tax revenues are $2.46 billion, $47.0 million (-1.9%) below projections. The FYTD shortfall is due to cigarette (-$55.4 million) and realty transfer (-$50.4 million) tax collections, and is partially offset by an overage in inheritance 7 -157.4 PIT - Non-Withholding 716.2 690.3 25.9 2,118.4 1,757.8 360.6 Cigarette 45.7 49.7 -4.0 498.0 553.4 -55.4 Inheritance 125.9 115.0 10.9 851

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MRU-2022-10.pdf

expected. The result was led by inheritance ($8.9 million) and gaming ($4.3 million) tax revenues. Weaker than anticipated cigarette (-$5.2 million), realty transfer (-$1.9 million) and financial institutions (-$1.1 million) tax collections partially offset the overages 941.7 -44.7 PIT - Non-Withholding 294.9 205.8 89.1 1,145.9 881.5 264.4 Cigarette 80.9 86.1 -5.2 289.1 317.8 -28.7 Inheritance 123.3 114.4 8.9 478

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MRU-2022-09.pdf

8 million (0.5%) above the forecast, led by inheritance (+$13.7 million) and gaming (+$8.4 million) tax revenues. Cigarette (-$8.2 million) and realty transfer (-$7.5 million) tax collections partially undercut that result. For the FYTD, other taxes 2,955.3 -49.7 PIT - Non-Withholding 676.5 539.7 136.8 851.1 675.7 175.4 Cigarette 91.7 99.9 -8.2 208.2 231.7 -23.5 Inheritance 128.2 114.5 13.7 355

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MRU-2022-07.pdf

tax revenues for July declined $31.7 million (-10.4%) from prior year collections. The decline was largely due to cigarette (-$12.8 million), minor and repealed (-$11.7 million), inheritance (-$7.1 million) and gaming (-$4.6 million) tax collections 4 n.a. n.a. PIT - Non-Withholding 90.5 n.a. n.a. 90.5 n.a. n.a. Cigarette 30.5 n.a. n.a. 30.5 n.a. n.a. Inheritance 110.2 n.a. n.a. 110

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MRU-2021-12.pdf

6 million) and realty transfer (+$25.1 million) tax revenues. The monthly excess was partially offset by lower than anticipated cigarette tax collections (-$15.9 million). FYTD other tax revenues are $2.25 billion, or $252.8 million (12.6%) more 574.9 178.3 PIT - Non-Withholding 145.2 119.3 25.9 1,116.6 978.8 137.8 Cigarette 86.5 102.4 -15.9 519.1 521.9 -2.8 Inheritance 143.2 104.6 38.6 755

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

certain car dealerships at the end of March. FYTD SUT collections are $30.7 million (0.4 percent) below estimate. Cigarette and malt beverage tax collections for March fell short of estimate by $18.9 million and $0.8 million, respectively 5 16.3 PIT - Non-Withholding 87.8 194.4 -106.6 1,632.2 1,709.0 -76.8 Cigarette 64.2 83.1 -18.9 762.9 780.2 -17.3 Inheritance 116.1 89.8 26.3 867

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

4 percent more than anticipated. FYTD collections are outperforming estimates by $47.7 million (5.4 percent), due primarily to cigarette tax revenues ($39.7 million, 16.2 percent). Due to the passage of a partial-year budget, the IFO will 6 71.8 PIT - Non-Withholding 429.8 364.0 65.8 1,899.4 1,887.2 12.2 Cigarette 98.2 99.8 -1.6 283.9 244.2 39.7 Inheritance 98.1 96.6 1.5 308

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MRU-2020-08.pdf

percent more than anticipated. FYTD collections are outperforming estimates by $46.6 million (8.1 percent), due to unusually strong cigarette tax collections which are $41.3 million (28.6 percent) over estimate. Non-tax collections fell short of estimate by 0 49.0 PIT - Non-Withholding 79.7 50.9 28.8 1,469.6 1,523.2 -53.6 Cigarette 111.7 96.9 14.8 185.7 144.4 41.3 Inheritance 92.1 109.0 -16.9 210

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

August 2017, December 2017)  ISSU & PSSU Wage Contracts Analysis (March 2017)  Horse Racing Analysis (March 2017)  Philadelphia Cigarette & Beverage Tax Impact (March 2017)  Analysis of Revenue Proposals in FY 2017‐18 Executive Budget (April 2017)  Property 5,848 352 6.4% 5,824 23 PIT - Other 1,228 1,456 229 18.6% 1,335 122 Cigarette 728 704 -24 -3.3% 723 -19 Inheritance 530 558 28 5.3% 528 30 Realty Transfer 282 307 25

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

5,496 108 2.0% -64 3.2% PIT - Other 1,278 1,228 -51 -4.0% 6 -4.4% Cigarette and Other Tobacco 529 763 234 44.2% 260 -4.8% Inheritance 515 530 15 2.9% 0 2.9% 9% Note: Millions of dollars. Policy and timing column represents additional monies due to tax law changes (e.g., higher cigarette tax rate) or timing issues related to due dates or transfers (e.g., extra withholding days). (12) Both estimates include

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

5,496 108 2.0% -64 3.2% PIT - Other 1,278 1,228 -51 -4.0% 6 -4.4% Cigarette and Other Tobacco 529 763 234 44.2% 260 -4.8% Inheritance 515 530 15 2.9% 0 2.9% 9% Note: Millions of dollars. Policy and timing column represents additional monies due to tax law changes (e.g., higher cigarette tax rate) or timing issues related to due dates or transfers (e.g., extra withholding days). (12) Both estimates include

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RTR-2014-08.pdf

8 million (-3.4%) over August 2013. The decline was largely due to a $4 million decline (-4.7%) in cigarette tax collections. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions) Revenue 4.8% 6.7% 2.6% Motor Vehicle 118.5 7.4% 242.0 6.8% 8.8% 5.8% Cigarette 87.5 -4.7% 150.3 -6.0% -5.4% -4.9% Malt Beverage 2.4 2.8% 4.7

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RTR-2014-06.pdf

by $43 million (51.5%) due to an interfund transfer that was higher than the amount transferred in June 2013. • Cigarette tax revenues decreased by $4 million (-4.3%) from the prior year. The three- month trend (-8.2%) shows a 1% 5.2% 2.1% Motor Vehicle 115.9 13.2% 1,237.6 6.0% 9.7% 6.0% Cigarette 89.0 -4.3% 976.9 -4.6% -8.2% -4.6% Malt Beverage 2.3 -3.2% 25.1

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RTR-2014-05.pdf

because of fewer due dates this May. Withholding revenues increased by 2.5% for the most recent twelve-month period. • Cigarette tax revenues decreased by $7 million (-8.0%) from the prior year and by $43 million (-4.6%) from the 3% 1.4% 1.5% Motor Vehicle 115.9 6.9% 1,121.7 5.3% 6.7% 5.1% Cigarette 86.2 -8.0% 887.9 -4.6% -6.3% -4.3% Malt Beverage 2.1 0.0% 22.8

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RTR-2013-12.pdf

million (1.8%). Fiscal year-to-date nonwithholding collections are up 40 million, a growth rate of 6.2%.  Cigarette tax revenues continued their long-term downward trend decreasing $6.8 million (-7.6%) over December 2012, bringing the fiscal 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% Motor Vehicle 96.2 10.9% 616.3 6.8% 5.4% 3.3% Cigarette 83.5 -7.6% 514.0 -4.4% -5.4% -4.6% Malt Beverage 2.0 17.1% 13.4

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Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf

Realty Transfer US home sales at all time low since 1995 Treasury Earnings FY 23-24 estimate is $791 million Cigarette Jan 2024 Roundtable Slide 16 Very strong lock in effect from higher rates Pre-Covid average is ~$30 million Assumes growth rate from 23-24 to 28-29. 1 FY 23-24 Budget figure deducts $115 million anticipated transfer from cigarette tax revenue to Tobacco Settlement Fund. Federal/National Factors Pose Greatest Risk November Election Uncertainty harms economic growth Business investment

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

996 4.0 9,282 -3.5 -714 Motor 1,548 4.3 1,288 -13.2 -260 Cigarette 948 -15.3 914 -18.3 -34 Other Tobacco Products 135 3.6 126 -3.0 -9 Malt Beverage 23 -1.0 Motor 9,282 -3.5 10,011 7.8 Motor 1,288 -13.2 1,579 22.6 Cigarette 914 -18.3 881 -3.6 Other Tobacco Products 126 -3.0 126 0.1 Malt Beverage 23 -1.0 23 0

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Revenue Trends Report - March 2013.pdf

million (-3.8%).  Other sources reporting increases were personal income tax, realty transfer tax and nontax revenues. Inheritance and cigarette taxes registered declines. Change in General Fund Tax Revenues (compared to same period in prior year; dollar amounts in millions 1.5% 0.1% -1.1% Motor Vehicle 102.9 -3.9% 844.8 -0.4% -3.8% 0.7% Cigarette 78.2 -9.0% 749.6 -4.7% -7.0% -3.4% Malt Beverage 1.8 -6.6% 18.7

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REU-2020-02.pdf

5 25.6 PIT - Non-Withholding 63.9 51.6 12.3 1,544.4 1,514.6 29.8 Cigarette 80.0 80.6 -0.6 698.7 697.1 1.6 Inheritance 102.9 77.4 25.5 751 4 6.2 3.5 Motor Vehicle 102.1 92.2 1,019.7 963.6 10.7 5.8 Cigarette 80.0 86.6 698.7 747.6 -7.6 -6.5 Other Tobacco Products 10.5 10.7 87

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REU-2020-01.pdf

4 208.5 71.0 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. Cigarette 64.6 58.0 6.6 618.7 616.5 2.2 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Oct-19 758.4 7.8 3.1 Motor Vehicle 123.8 115.3 917.6 871.4 7.3 5.3 Cigarette 64.6 62.2 618.7 661.0 3.8 -6.4 Other Tobacco Products 10.5 10.1 76

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REU-2019-12.pdf

5,191.9 20.4 PIT - Non-Withholding 114.9 160.6 -45.7 971.3 921.8 49.5 Cigarette 106.5 104.0 2.5 554.1 558.5 -4.4 Inheritance 94.7 82.2 12.6 555 871.7 3.3 2.3 Motor Vehicle 135.4 116.4 793.8 756.0 16.3 5.0 Cigarette 106.5 114.6 554.1 598.8 -7.1 -7.5 Other Tobacco Products 10.1 11.5 66

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REU-2019-11.pdf

4,276.6 22.6 PIT - Non-Withholding 42.1 40.1 2.0 856.5 761.2 95.3 Cigarette 94.3 98.0 -3.7 447.7 454.5 -6.8 Inheritance 87.8 87.3 0.6 461 052.8 2.8 2.1 Motor Vehicle 108.0 114.8 658.4 639.6 -5.9 2.9 Cigarette 94.3 103.9 447.7 484.2 -9.2 -7.6 Other Tobacco Products 11.2 12.5 56

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REU-2019-10.pdf

123.8 69.5 54.3 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. Cigarette 98.4 92.9 5.5 353.4 356.5 -3.1 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania Jul-19 257.4 8.9 1.9 Motor Vehicle 133.6 134.9 550.4 524.8 -0.9 4.9 Cigarette 98.4 98.3 353.4 380.4 0.1 -7.1 Other Tobacco Products 10.5 9.7 45

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QRR_2017Q3.pdf

5 2,233.3 3.2 Motor Vehicle 354.7 379.7 -25.0 354.7 379.7 -25.0 Cigarette 309.4 315.5 -6.1 309.4 315.5 -6.1 Other Tobacco Products 29.8 29.0 0 inheritance taxes were above estimate by $10.5 million, $7.1 mil- lion and $9.0 million, respectively. Gross receipts, cigarette and realty transfer taxes were below estimate by $9.2 million, $6.1 million and $2.5 million, respectively. The

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QRR_2017Q2.pdf

858.7 -220.3 Motor Vehicle 361.5 372.7 -11.2 1,366.8 1,381.7 -14.9 Cigarette 338.1 348.7 -10.6 1,261.6 1,286.4 -24.8 Other Tobacco Products 30.7 15 were below estimate by $3.0 million for the quarter and $29.2 million for the fiscal year-to-date. Cigarette tax collections were below estimate by $10.6 million for the quarter and $24.8 million for the fiscal year-

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QRR_2016Q4.pdf

7 4,460.9 -159.2 Motor Vehicle 321.1 327.5 -6.4 679.0 706.6 -27.6 Cigarette 373.6 392.9 -19.3 653.3 656.7 -3.4 Other Tobacco Products 5.3 9.6 -4 were below estimate by $0.6 million for the quarter and $6.2 million for the fiscal year-to-date. Cigarette tax collections were below estimate by $19.3 million for the quarter and $3.4 million for the fiscal year-

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QRR_2016Q3.pdf

6 2,237.4 -100.8 Motor Vehicle 358.0 379.1 -21.1 358.0 379.1 -21.1 Cigarette 279.8 263.8 16.0 279.8 263.8 16.0 Other Tobacco Products 0.0 0.0 0 0.7%). In particular, inheritance tax collec- tions for the quarter were under estimate by $11.0 million (-4.7%), cigarette tax collections were above esti- mate by $16.0 million (5.7%) and realty transfer tax collections were below estimate

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QRR_2016Q1.pdf

11.8 2.9 4.4 Other Revenues 4.6 0.2 -3.7 -10.0 -12.1 Cigarette -2.1 -2.9 -1.5 -3.9 -3.8 Realty Transfer 25.1 1.3 17.9 4.3 4.5 245.9 8.8 Motor Vehicle 297.3 301.4 -4.1 988.8 983.4 5.4 Cigarette 186.0 184.4 1.6 668.9 652.3 16.6 Malt Beverage 5.4 5.4 0.0 18.5

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QRR_2015Q4.pdf

21.2 4.2 4.4 Other Revenues -11.8 -21.0 -14.4 -23.1 -12.1 Cigarette -1.0 -4.1 -1.2 -4.3 -3.8 Realty Transfer 9.1 4.7 15.0 5.6 4.5 268.2 -20.0 Motor Vehicle 323.1 316.7 6.4 691.5 682.0 9.5 Cigarette 246.5 238.6 7.9 482.9 467.9 15.0 Malt Beverage 5.9 5.9 0.0 13.1

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QRR_2013Q3.pdf

quarter. Among the largest revenue sources, the capital stock and franchise tax exceeded estimate by $15 million, the cigarette tax fell short of projections by $4 million, the realty transfer tax was $3 million above estimate, the inheritance tax exceeded the 998.3 -26.6 Motor Vehicle 330.0 318.7 11.3 330.0 318.7 11.3 Cigarette 252.7 256.4 -3.7 252.7 256.4 -3.7 Malt Beverage 7.1 7.1 0.0 7.1

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Public_Data-General_Fund.xlsx

Receipts Utility Property Insurance Premiums Financial Institutions | Sales and Use - Total Sales and Use - Nonmotor Sales and Use - Motor Vehicle Cigarette Other Tobacco Products Malt Beverage Liquor | Personal Income - Total PIT - Withholding PIT Non-withholding Realty Transfer Inheritance Table Games Minor Receipts Utility Property Insurance Premiums Financial Institutions | Sales and Use - Total Sales and Use - Nonmotor Sales and Use - Motor Vehicle Cigarette Other Tobacco Products Malt Beverage Liquor | Personal Income - Total PIT - Withholding PIT Non-withholding Realty Transfer Inheritance Table Games Minor

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Sales 93 Corp. Net Income -176 Gaming Expansion 37 Escheats -109 Insurance Premiums 37 Gross Receipts -89 Bank Shares 34 Cigarette -31 Inheritance 23 Motor Veh Sales -31 All Other 66 All Other -8 Total $400 Total -$644 Note: Dollar amounts 1.5% 0.5% PIT - Withholding 3.5% 2.4% 4.3% PIT - Other 2.6% -2.1% 10.2% Cigarette -1.7% 38.4% -4.1% All Other 7.8% 6.8% 7.4% Note: All Other excludes capital stock

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

June.12.2018 14 Other Major Revenue Sources Annual Growth Rates Amount 15-16 16-17 17-18 17-18 Cigarette -1.7% 38.4% -4.1% $1,210 Gross Receipts 3.4 -5.7 -6.3 1,152 Inheritance -4 2.6% Personal Income 3.3% Sales and Use 3.0% Corporate Net Income 3.3% Gross Receipts -2.5% Cigarette 3.4% All Other -0.2% Note: Average annual growth rate from FY 12-13 to FY 17-18. Weighted

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% PA Economy 3.3% Note: Tax revenue excludes non-tax, cigarette and CSFT. Excludes tax amnesty monies and SUT changes. Corp Net Income PIT Non-Wage Sales- Motor Tax Revenue PIT PIT Non-Wage Sales- Motor Tax Revenue PIT Wages Sales- Non-Motor Other Taxes Note: Tax revenue excludes non-tax, cigarette and CSFT. Excludes tax amnesty monies and SUT changes. PIT wage and tax revenue growth control for extra deposit day

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

Lyme case investigations (000s) 7.5 9.4 11.4 11.9 10.2 11.5 Outcome % Adult cigarette smokers 2 19% 18% 18% 18% 17% -- % Adults that vape 3 -- -- 6% 7% -- -- % Teens that smoke 13% -- 9% -- 7% -- % Teens that vape 13.4% 10.9% Hispanic 16.9% 11.8% 15.4% 11.6% 14.2% 12.5% % Adult cigarette smokers (2014-2017) 8 19.9% 17.4% 18.0% 16.4% 18.7% 16.4% White, non-Hispanic 19.4% 18

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

996 4.0 9,309 -3.2 -687 Motor 1,548 4.3 1,316 -11.3 -232 Cigarette 948 -15.3 922 -17.6 -26 Other Tobacco Products 135 3.6 127 -2.5 -8 Malt Beverage 23 -1.0 Motor 9,309 -3.2 9,893 6.3 Motor 1,316 -11.3 1,559 18.5 Cigarette 922 -17.6 881 -4.4 Other Tobacco Products 127 -2.5 127 0.2 Malt Beverage 23 -1.0 23 0

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

2.3 8,957 3.7 120 Motor Vehicle 1,404 2.7 1,400 2.4 -4 Cigarette 1,241 -1.7 1,195 -5.3 -46 Other Tobacco Products 114 36.3 117 39.8 3 Malt Beverage 25 8,957 3.7 9,324 4.1 Motor Vehicle 1,400 2.4 1,427 2.0 Cigarette 1,195 -5.3 1,136 -4.9 Other Tobacco Products 117 39.8 119 1.6 Malt Beverage 24 -0.4

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NewsStand_2019_October.pdf

Reliance A new Tax Policy Center report discusses revenue trends for common (alcohol, tobacco and gambling) and emerging (marijuana, e-cigarettes and sugar-sweetened beverages) sin taxes. In 2017, Pennsylvania sin taxes comprised 11.4% of state revenues; ranking 2nd in 19.5%) and gambling (23.3%) tax revenues. For emerging sin taxes, Pennsylvania imposes a 40% excise tax on e-cigarettes. The report notes that while sin taxes generate revenue for states, these revenues tend to be unpredictable and decline over

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

2,503.0 5.4 PIT - Non-Withholding 474.8 437.2 37.6 616.3 551.1 65.2 Cigarette 101.7 104.4 -2.7 255.0 263.6 -8.6 Inheritance 86.6 77.1 9.5 282 432.8 3.7 -0.4 Motor Vehicle 137.2 121.1 416.8 390.0 13.3 6.9 Cigarette 101.7 106.5 255.0 282.0 -4.6 -9.6 Other Tobacco Products 11.7 11.1 34

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

51.9 57.4 -5.5 Dollar amounts in millions. Estimate refers to IFO official estimate published in June 2019. Cigarette 102.6 101.7 0.9 153.3 159.2 -5.9 MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS United States Pennsylvania May-19 653.1 6.7 -2.4 Motor Vehicle 137.2 131.8 279.6 268.9 4.1 4.0 Cigarette 102.6 110.2 153.3 175.5 -7.0 -12.6 Other Tobacco Products 11.9 10.4 22

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

6 percent). Other notable tax revenue sources that were below estimate include realty transfer ($2.5 million, -1.9 percent), cigarette ($6.1 million, -1.9 percent) and gross receipts ($9.2 million, -73.3 percent). These underperformances were more than 2,137 2,121 4.8 4.7 Motor Vehicle 118 123 125 355 358 368 -3.8 -0.9 Cigarette 122 116 87 309 280 236 5.1 10.6 Other Tobacco Products 10 0 0 30 0 0 n

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MRU_2024_3.pdf

249 1,253 -4 9,933 9,977 -44 PIT - Non-Withholding 282 271 11 2,137 2,405 -268 Cigarette 61 72 -11 565 615 -51 Inheritance 142 159 -16 1,158 1,148 10 Other Taxes 2,492 2 4 5.9 2.1 Motor Vehicle 117.2 129.7 979.8 1,019.5 -9.6 -3.9 Cigarette 60.9 71.5 564.5 643.6 -14.8 -12.3 Other Tobacco Products 11.3 11.7 109

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MRU_2024_2.pdf

1 -40.2 PIT - Non-Withholding 90.8 75.3 15.5 1,855.4 2,134.3 -278.9 Cigarette 64.4 66.6 -2.2 503.6 543.6 -40.0 Inheritance 140.7 122.8 17.9 1 499.1 1.6 1.7 Motor Vehicle 85.0 89.4 862.6 889.7 -4.9 -3.1 Cigarette 64.4 74.2 503.6 572.1 -13.2 -12.0 Other Tobacco Products 12.4 12.8 98

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MRU_2024_1.pdf

0 -59.0 PIT - Non-Withholding 587.5 778.8 -191.3 1,764.5 2,059.0 -294.5 Cigarette 34.6 42.8 -8.2 439.2 477.0 -37.8 Inheritance 105.0 128.8 -23.8 874 586.6 5.7 1.7 Motor Vehicle 103.2 111.8 777.6 800.3 -7.7 -2.8 Cigarette 34.6 45.7 439.2 498.0 -24.3 -11.8 Other Tobacco Products 12.1 12.8 85

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MRU_2024_04.pdf

081 3 11,018 11,058 -41 PIT - Non-Withholding 1,869 1,968 -98 4,007 4,373 -366 Cigarette -47 -45 -2 518 570 -53 Inheritance 211 124 87 1,368 1,272 97 Other Taxes 261 256 6 3.9 1.5 Motor Vehicle 130.0 110.6 1,109.8 1,130.0 17.5 -1.8 Cigarette (46.9) (41.6) 517.6 602.0 -12.6 -14.0 Other Tobacco Products 11.6 13.1 121

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MRU_2023_12.pdf

7 -49.3 PIT - Non-Withholding 141.4 189.7 -48.3 1,177.0 1,277.2 -100.2 Cigarette 80.4 76.9 3.5 404.6 434.2 -29.6 Inheritance 117.9 139.4 -21.5 769 437.8 0.4 1.0 Motor Vehicle 97.1 101.8 674.4 688.5 -4.6 -2.1 Cigarette 80.4 81.3 404.6 452.3 -1.2 -10.5 Other Tobacco Products 12.1 12.9 73

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MRU_2023_11.pdf

8 -48.0 PIT - Non-Withholding 65.0 59.7 5.3 1,035.6 1,087.5 -51.9 Cigarette 71.0 79.8 -8.8 324.2 357.3 -33.1 Inheritance 113.9 113.5 0.4 651 363.2 -0.2 1.1 Motor Vehicle 100.4 102.7 577.3 586.7 -2.2 -1.6 Cigarette 71.0 81.8 324.2 370.9 -13.2 -12.6 Other Tobacco Products 12.4 12.7 61

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MRU_2023_10.pdf

107.7 -2.6 PIT - Non-Withholding 250.6 229.0 21.6 970.6 1,027.8 -57.2 Cigarette 77.1 77.5 -0.4 253.2 277.5 -24.3 Inheritance 171.1 120.5 50.6 537 346.1 0.6 1.5 Motor Vehicle 124.2 120.4 476.8 484.0 3.2 -1.5 Cigarette 77.1 80.9 253.2 289.1 -4.7 -12.4 Other Tobacco Products 11.9 13.0 49

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MRU_2022_04.pdf

Non-Withholding 3,183.4 1,703.8 1,479.6 5,375.4 3,575.3 1,800.1 Cigarette -35.1 -33.5 -1.6 692.5 690.5 2.0 Inheritance 133.0 117.1 15.9 1 4.1 11.3 Motor Vehicle 159.7 183.5 1,508.8 1,506.0 -13.0 0.2 Cigarette (35.1) (15.7) 692.5 776.9 -123.6 -10.9 Other Tobacco Products 12.9 12.0 124

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MRU_2022_03.pdf

7 405.4 PIT - Non-Withholding 286.9 203.0 83.9 2,192.0 1,871.5 320.5 Cigarette 84.6 74.4 10.2 727.6 724.0 3.6 Inheritance 158.8 114.5 44.3 1 24.3 12.2 Motor Vehicle 189.8 158.6 1,349.1 1,322.5 19.6 2.0 Cigarette 84.6 87.5 727.6 792.6 -3.4 -8.2 Other Tobacco Products 11.4 10.3 111

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MRU_2022_02.pdf

3 308.3 PIT - Non-Withholding 82.0 64.1 17.9 1,905.0 1,668.5 236.5 Cigarette 71.1 76.7 -5.6 643.1 649.6 -6.5 Inheritance 116.1 93.7 22.4 1 6.0 10.9 Motor Vehicle 99.3 117.3 1,159.3 1,163.9 -15.3 -0.4 Cigarette 71.1 89.9 643.1 705.1 -20.9 -8.8 Other Tobacco Products 11.8 10.6 100

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MRU_2021_11.pdf

4,474.3 113.6 PIT - Non-Withholding 63.6 47.5 16.1 971.4 859.5 111.9 Cigarette 92.3 93.1 -0.8 432.6 419.5 13.1 Inheritance 121.7 102.0 19.7 611 558.1 12.9 9.4 Motor Vehicle 160.5 135.6 785.4 798.1 18.3 -1.6 Cigarette 92.3 97.5 432.6 477.7 -5.3 -9.4 Other Tobacco Products 12.5 12.2 62

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MRU_2021_10.pdf

3,578.2 75.8 PIT - Non-Withholding 191.2 192.2 -1.0 907.8 812.0 95.8 Cigarette 88.3 88.2 0.1 340.4 326.4 14.0 Inheritance 119.6 106.9 12.7 490 709.5 8.7 8.6 Motor Vehicle 156.6 149.7 625.0 662.5 4.6 -5.7 Cigarette 88.3 96.4 340.4 380.3 -8.4 -10.5 Other Tobacco Products 13.0 10.6 50

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MRU_2021_04.pdf

7.9 PIT - Non-Withholding 839.1 1,572.7 -733.6 3,934.7 4,516.2 -581.5 Cigarette -15.7 -22.0 6.3 776.9 754.6 22.3 Inheritance 145.5 96.0 49.5 1 62.9 12.3 Motor Vehicle 183.5 15.6 1,506.0 1,156.3 n.a. 30.2 Cigarette (15.7) (15.5) 776.9 747.3 -1.1 4.0 Other Tobacco Products 12.0 10.5 111

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MRU_2021_01.pdf

5 2.7 PIT - Non-Withholding 209.3 467.0 -257.7 2,453.5 2,711.3 -257.8 Cigarette 43.1 57.5 -14.4 615.2 629.7 -14.5 Inheritance 101.6 79.2 22.4 706 1 0.5 8.0 Motor Vehicle 121.3 123.8 1,046.6 917.6 -2.0 14.1 Cigarette 43.1 64.6 615.2 618.7 -33.3 -0.6 Other Tobacco Products 11.4 10.5 78

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MRU_2020_11.pdf

8 -80.4 PIT - Non-Withholding 24.8 39.3 -14.5 2,130.7 2,067.7 63.0 Cigarette 97.5 91.4 6.1 477.7 423.0 54.7 Inheritance 94.6 101.9 -7.3 500 137.7 3.8 10.2 Motor Vehicle 135.6 108.0 798.1 658.4 25.6 21.2 Cigarette 97.5 94.3 477.7 447.7 3.4 6.7 Other Tobacco Products 12.2 11.2 56

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MRU-2022-08.pdf

2,034.6 -53.7 PIT - Non-Withholding 84.0 60.5 23.5 174.6 136.0 38.6 Cigarette 86.0 94.8 -8.8 116.5 131.8 -15.3 Inheritance 116.7 111.0 5.7 226 034.5 7.8 7.2 Motor Vehicle 134.8 149.9 247.2 312.7 -10.1 -21.0 Cigarette 86.0 101.0 116.5 144.3 -14.9 -19.3 Other Tobacco Products 12.4 12.5 24

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MRU-2022-06.pdf

589.8 PIT - Non-Withholding 564.9 430.4 134.5 6,099.4 4,081.9 2,017.5 Cigarette 93.6 96.4 -2.8 874.1 873.8 0.3 Inheritance 121.6 133.2 -11.6 1 4.1 9.9 Motor Vehicle 156.2 181.7 1,837.9 1,847.7 -14.0 -0.5 Cigarette 93.6 91.9 874.1 964.2 1.9 -9.3 Other Tobacco Products 12.8 11.7 149

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MRU-2022-05.pdf

533.3 PIT - Non-Withholding 159.1 76.2 82.9 5,534.5 3,651.5 1,883.0 Cigarette 87.9 86.9 1.0 780.4 777.4 3.0 Inheritance 132.3 126.0 6.3 1 3.5 10.5 Motor Vehicle 173.0 160.0 1,681.7 1,666.0 8.1 0.9 Cigarette 87.9 95.3 780.4 872.3 -7.8 -10.5 Other Tobacco Products 12.2 12.0 136

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MRU-2022-01.pdf

2 235.9 PIT - Non-Withholding 706.4 625.6 80.8 1,823.0 1,604.4 218.6 Cigarette 52.8 51.0 1.8 571.9 572.9 -1.0 Inheritance 133.6 102.0 31.6 888 17.0 11.5 Motor Vehicle 135.9 121.3 1,060.0 1,046.6 12.0 1.3 Cigarette 52.8 43.1 571.9 615.2 22.6 -7.0 Other Tobacco Products 12.8 11.4 88

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MRU-2021-06.pdf

1 0.9 PIT - Non-Withholding 441.2 380.1 61.1 5,445.4 4,970.0 475.4 Cigarette 91.9 94.5 -2.6 964.2 936.0 28.2 Inheritance 100.8 119.6 -18.8 1 24.9 16.2 Motor Vehicle 181.7 158.0 1,847.7 1,365.0 15.0 35.4 Cigarette 91.9 91.1 964.2 924.3 0.9 4.3 Other Tobacco Products 11.7 10.6 134

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

9 -49.4 PIT - Non-Withholding 113.5 107.3 6.2 2,244.2 2,175.0 69.2 Cigarette 94.4 100.7 -6.3 572.1 523.7 48.4 Inheritance 104.8 109.0 -4.2 605 983.6 5.9 9.4 Motor Vehicle 127.2 135.4 925.4 793.8 -6.1 16.6 Cigarette 94.4 106.5 572.1 554.1 -11.4 3.2 Other Tobacco Products 10.6 10.1 66

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MRU-2020-10.pdf

0 93.4 PIT - Non-Withholding 206.5 141.2 65.3 2,105.9 2,028.4 77.5 Cigarette 96.4 87.4 9.0 380.3 331.6 48.7 Inheritance 97.1 107.3 -10.2 405 319.8 4.7 11.7 Motor Vehicle 149.7 133.6 662.5 550.4 12.0 20.4 Cigarette 96.4 98.4 380.3 353.4 -2.1 7.6 Other Tobacco Products 10.6 10.5 44

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MRU-2020-07.pdf

a. n.a. PIT - Non-Withholding 1,389.9 n.a. n.a. 1,389.9 n.a. n.a. Cigarette 74.0 n.a. n.a. 74.0 n.a. n.a. Inheritance 118.4 n.a. n.a. 118 783.0 35.8 35.8 Motor Vehicle 192.1 142.4 192.1 142.4 34.9 34.9 Cigarette 74.0 50.8 74.0 50.8 45.8 45.8 Other Tobacco Products 11.1 10.9 11

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MRU-2020-06.pdf

249.9 PIT - Non-Withholding 260.2 398.5 -138.3 2,292.2 3,751.1 -1,458.9 Cigarette 91.1 100.5 -9.4 924.3 948.0 -23.7 Inheritance 80.1 96.9 -16.8 1 3.7 -1.7 Motor Vehicle 158.0 121.6 1,365.0 1,483.6 29.9 -8.0 Cigarette 91.1 104.2 924.3 1,118.8 -12.5 -17.4 Other Tobacco Products 10.6 12.1

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MRU-2020-05.pdf

174.6 PIT - Non-Withholding 194.9 62.1 132.8 2,032.1 3,352.6 -1,320.5 Cigarette 85.9 93.8 -7.9 833.2 847.5 -14.3 Inheritance 69.1 103.4 -34.2 1 20.1 -1.5 Motor Vehicle 50.6 133.3 1,206.9 1,362.0 -62.0 -11.4 Cigarette 85.9 95.8 833.2 1,014.6 -10.4 -17.9 Other Tobacco Products 9.9 11.3

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MRU-2020-04.pdf

PIT - Non-Withholding 205.0 1,581.5 -1,376.5 1,837.2 3,290.5 -1,453.3 Cigarette -15.5 -26.5 11.0 747.3 753.7 -6.4 Inheritance 65.4 99.6 -34.2 932 25.1 0.4 Motor Vehicle 15.6 146.1 1,156.3 1,228.7 -89.3 -5.9 Cigarette (15.5) 94.4 747.3 918.8 n.a. -18.7 Other Tobacco Products 10.5 10.5 106

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

837 2.3 8,930 3.4 93 Motor 1,404 2.7 1,373 0.5 -31 Cigarette 1,241 -1.7 1,210 -4.1 -31 Other Tobacco Products 114 36.3 117 39.1 3 Malt Beverage 25 Motor 8,930 3.4 9,293 4.1 Motor 1,373 0.5 1,394 1.5 Cigarette 1,210 -4.1 1,184 -2.2 Other Tobacco Products 117 39.1 119 1.6 Malt Beverage 25 2.5

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

40 3.9 3.5 PIT - Other 1,310 -10.1 1,972 2,161 -189 -2.4 3.2 Cigarette 661 -6.1 477 458 19 -5.0 -6.6 Inheritance 598 7.1 448 462 -14 2.6 4 10,846 4.0 10,784 3.9 62 PIT - Other 3,500 6.6 3,670 5.7 -170 Cigarette 1,094 -3.8 1,065 -4.8 30 Inheritance 1,066 1.9 1,106 4.3 -40 Gaming

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf

231 25.6 Sales and Use 9,389 6.4 Nonmotor 8,499 6.4 Motor Vehicle 890 6.6 Cigarette 572 -11.0 Other Tobacco Products 102 2.3 Malt Beverage 15 -0.6 Liquor 301 3.4 Personal Income adjusted for new and one-time transfers. The IFO 23-24 estimate assumes a transfer of $115.3 million from cigarette tax to the tobacco settlement fund. Therefore, this transfer is excluded from the revenue proposals. Dollar Amount (millions) Growth Rate

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

Production Report Quarter 4 (March 2017) • ISSU and PSSU Wage Contracts Analysis (March 2017) • Horse Racing Analysis (March 2017) • Philadelphia Cigarette and Beverage Tax Impact (March 2017) • Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2017-18 Executive Budget (April 2017) • Property Tax Income $12,506 $12,664 $13,322 3.3% 1.3% 5.2% $1,721 4.1% $1,710 $11 Cigarettes $912 $1,262 $1,240 -1.7% 38.4% -1.7% $190 15.9% $198 -$8 All Other Taxes $4

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

in Q3 Corporate Net Income +12.2% very strong December payment Sales - Non-Motor Vehicle +3.8% appliance purchases, remodels Cigarette +3.2% All Other Tax +1.6% Personal Income - Withholding -1.0% turned positive in Q4 Inheritance -3.4% possible 1.14 1.1% 1.26 2.4% Gross Receipts 1.00 1.06 5.8% 1.11 1.1% Cigarette 0.94 0.86 -7.8% 0.72 -4.4% All Other 3.39 2.91 -14.3% 3.32

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

begins. Long-term revenue potential is limited.  Continued modest growth of sales tax (+3.0%).  Other revenues declining (cigarette, -3.2%) or flat (GRT). Cost containment efforts improve alignment.  After FY 2017-18, revenues grow ~+3.2%, expenditures 7% Total Tax Revenue 2.3% -7.3% -1.5% 3.3% Note: FY 2002-03 growth rate controls for cigarette tax increase. November 16, 2017 21 Fiscal Outlook Long-Term Structural Imbalance 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20

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index.cfm

Collections are estimated to be $174.0 million, a decrease of $104.8 million from the prior year. ... (Full Report) Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic Economics and Other December 11, 2023 This research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19. ... (Full Report) OPEIU Wage Contract Analysis Wage Contracts December 07, 2023 This letter provides

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TC_2022_Brewers.pdf

tax remitted by manufacturers and effectively paid by consumers. Research finds that excise taxes remitted by manufacturers or wholesalers like cigarette or soda taxes are nearly fully passed forward to final consumers. If that is accurate, then any savings from the

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Supplemental_Table.pdf

186 1,229 1,230 12 -44 Sales and Use 10,239 10,629 10,407 10,782 -169 -152 Cigarette 1,231 1,194 1,230 1,183 0 11 Personal Income 13,300 13,903 13,400 14,127

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf

5,456 -14,422 -24,191 Note: Millions of dollars. Baseline Revenues assume an annual transfer of $115 million from cigarette taxes. The balance sheet utilizes revenue estimates from the IFO's Mid-Year Update (FY 23-24 and FY 24-

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RTR-May 2012.pdf

0 2.1% 320.0 4.4% 17.2% 14.8% 3.2% 4.4% 1,160.5 8.7% Cigarette 98.1 2.9% 275.2 0.0% -2.8% 1.4% -1.3% -2.1% 1,074.0 -0

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RTR-Mar 2012.pdf

0 1.9% 278.3 17.2% 14.8% 3.2% 4.4% 10.4% 1,148.9 9.4% Cigarette 86.0 -5.5% 227.6 -2.8% 1.4% -1.3% -2.1% -5.4% 1,069.0 -1

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RTR-Jun 2012a.pdf

7 0.1% 312.6 3.9% 17.2% 14.8% 3.2% 4.4% 1,160.6 9.2% Cigarette 94.0 -4.1% 283.2 0.3% -2.8% 1.4% -1.3% -2.1% 1,069.9 -0

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RTR-Feb 2012.pdf

3 27.0% 261.5 24.8% 14.8% 3.2% 4.4% 10.4% 1,147.0 11.5% Cigarette 76.4 -1.9% 236.9 0.2% 1.4% -1.3% -2.1% -5.4% 1,074.0 -0

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RTR-Apr 2012.pdf

0 9.6% 292.3 10.6% 17.2% 14.8% 3.2% 4.4% 1,158.3 10.2% Cigarette 91.0 2.5% 253.4 -1.7% -2.8% 1.4% -1.3% -2.1% 1,071.2 -0

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RTR-2015-04.pdf

9% 3.6% 4.1% Motor Vehicle 123.5 1.0% 1,088.5 8.2% 4.5% 8.5% Cigarette 79.7 3.9% 758.6 -5.4% -5.0% -5.5% Malt Beverage 2.2 6.1% 19.9

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RTR-2015-03.pdf

3.8% 3.1% 4.2% Motor Vehicle 109.3 2.5% 965.0 9.2% 7.7% 9.3% Cigarette 71.5 -10.9% 678.9 -6.3% -10.0% -6.9% Malt Beverage 1.7 -7.3% 17.7

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RTR-2015-02.pdf

3.9% 3.0% 3.9% Motor Vehicle 83.3 13.0% 855.7 10.1% 14.2% 9.5% Cigarette 68.7 -7.8% 607.4 -5.8% -2.6% -5.8% Malt Beverage 1.9 -0.2% 16.0

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RTR-2015-01.pdf

4.0% 3.2% 3.4% Motor Vehicle 95.2 9.6% 772.4 9.8% 9.8% 8.6% Cigarette 49.7 -11.5% 538.7 -5.5% -4.5% -4.8% Malt Beverage 1.7 12.0% 14.1

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RTR-2014-12.pdf

4.1% 3.7% 3.4% Motor Vehicle 114.8 19.4% 677.2 9.9% 8.5% 7.6% Cigarette 90.2 8.0% 489.0 -4.9% -4.8% -4.8% Malt Beverage 1.6 -19.1% 12.5

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RTR-2014-11.pdf

4.5% 4.3% 3.0% Motor Vehicle 84.5 -0.7% 562.4 8.1% 9.1% 6.9% Cigarette 82.1 -11.6% 398.8 -7.4% -8.2% -6.1% Malt Beverage 1.8 -17.4% 10.8

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RTR-2014-10.pdf

4.6% 3.9% 3.0% Motor Vehicle 111.2 5.9% 477.9 9.8% 11.2% 6.3% Cigarette 76.5 -9.9% 316.7 -6.2% -5.8% -5.4% Malt Beverage 2.1 2.4% 9.0

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RTR-2014-09.pdf

4.6% 4.6% 2.8% Motor Vehicle 124.7 20.5% 366.7 11.1% 11.1% 6.9% Cigarette 89.8 -3.2% 240.2 -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% Malt Beverage 2.2 -2.4% 6.9

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RTR-2014-07.pdf

6.5% 5.6% 2.7% Motor Vehicle 123.5 6.3% 123.5 6.3% 8.6% 5.9% Cigarette 62.8 -7.7% 62.8 -7.7% -6.6% -4.5% Malt Beverage 2.2 -8.5% 2.2

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RTR-2014-04.pdf

5% 0.4% 2.0% Motor Vehicle 122.2 9.2% 1,005.8 5.1% 4.5% 4.7% Cigarette 76.7 -12.5% 801.7 -4.3% -2.2% -4.0% Malt Beverage 2.0 5.2% 20.7

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RTR-2014-03.pdf

1.1% 0.0% 1.2% Motor Vehicle 106.7 3.7% 883.5 4.6% -0.2% 4.2% Cigarette 80.2 2.5% 724.9 -3.3% -0.4% -3.2% Malt Beverage 1.8 4.1% 18.6

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RTR-2014-02.pdf

1.3% -0.5% 1.2% Motor Vehicle 73.7 -1.4% 776.9 4.7% 2.1% 3.5% Cigarette 74.5 5.4% 644.7 -4.0% -4.3% -4.1% Malt Beverage 1.9 1.1% 16.8

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RTR-2014-01.pdf

2.0% 1.7% 1.8% Motor Vehicle 86.8 -3.6% 703.2 5.4% -0.3% 3.3% Cigarette 56.2 -10.5% 570.2 -5.1% -6.7% -5.0% Malt Beverage 1.5 -26.6% 14.9

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RTR-2013-11.pdf

2.4% 2.4% 1.7% Motor Vehicle 85.1 -7.6% 520.2 6.1% 4.7% 2.2% Cigarette 92.9 -3.3% 430.5 -3.8% -3.4% -4.4% Malt Beverage 2.2 0.9% 11.4

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RTR-2013-10.pdf

2.2% 2.9% 1.4% Motor Vehicle 105.1 13.1% 435.1 9.2% 9.8% 2.9% Cigarette 84.9 -5.5% 337.6 -3.9% -2.8% -3.7% Malt Beverage 2.0 7.5% 9.2

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Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf

88 5.12 4.8 6.14 4.7 Inheritance 1.46 1.49 1.9 1.72 3.6 Cigarette 0.81 0.77 -5.1 0.65 -4.0 All Other Tax 3.76 3.86 2.8 4

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

impact). Line 14: net gain is $4 million. The final adjustment is for miscellaneous taxes not explicitly modeled such as cigarette, liquor and gross receipts. The model applies a 5% gross up for those taxes. Line 15: gain of $3 million

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Revenue Trends Report - September 2012.pdf

1.4% 1.4% 0.6% Motor Vehicle 95.6 7.7% 305.5 5.8% 5.8% 9.8% Cigarette 94.3 -5.7% 261.6 -5.5% -5.5% -1.6% Malt Beverage 2.4 -5.1% 7.2

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Revenue Trends Report - October 2012.pdf

2.4% 1.6% 1.1% Motor Vehicle 92.9 -7.3% 398.4 2.4% -4.9% 7.3% Cigarette 89.8 -5.6% 351.4 -5.5% -6.0% -2.2% Malt Beverage 1.9 -9.6% 9.1

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Revenue Trends Report - November 2012.pdf

1.9% 1.4% 0.6% Motor Vehicle 92.0 1.7% 490.4 2.3% 0.4% 7.0% Cigarette 96.1 4.6% 447.5 -3.5% -2.4% -1.9% Malt Beverage 2.2 13.9% 11.3

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Revenue Trends Report - May 2013.pdf

4% 0.1% -1.7% Motor Vehicle 108.5 2.3% 1,065.2 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% Cigarette 93.7 -4.5% 931.0 -4.6% -5.7% -4.6% Malt Beverage 2.1 -1.9% 22.8

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Revenue Trends Report - June 2013.pdf

5% 1.6% 1.5% Motor Vehicle 102.4 2.7% 1,167.6 0.6% 3.2% 0.6% Cigarette 93.1 -1.0% 1,024.1 -4.3% -3.1% -4.3% Malt Beverage 2.4 -5.1% 25

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2013.pdf

0.2% 3.1% 1.1% Motor Vehicle 116.2 7.6% 116.2 7.6% 4.3% -0.8% Cigarette 68.1 -8.3% 68.1 -8.3% -4.3% -4.6% Malt Beverage 2.4 3.8% 2.4

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Revenue Trends Report - July 2012.pdf

4.9% -8.2% 1.7% Motor Vehicle 108.0 29.1% 108.0 29.1% 9.3% 12.0% Cigarette 74.2 -3.8% 74.2 -3.8% -1.6% -0.3% Malt Beverage 2.4 -8.0% 2.4

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf

1.5% 0.3% 0.0% Motor Vehicle 90.1 -3.1% 667.2 0.7% -1.8% 3.1% Cigarette 62.8 -3.7% 600.7 -3.8% -1.3% -2.7% Malt Beverage 2.0 4.5% 15.0

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2012.pdf

0 31.3% 273.7 17.0% 14.8% 3.2% 4.4% 10.4% 1,130.3 9.2% Cigarette 65.2 -0.3% 252.4 1.2% 1.4% -1.3% -2.1% -5.4% 1,075.5 -1

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Revenue Trends Report - February 2013.pdf

1.8% 1.6% -0.1% Motor Vehicle 74.7 -4.6% 741.9 0.1% -3.8% 1.3% Cigarette 70.7 -7.4% 671.4 -4.2% -5.5% -3.1% Malt Beverage 1.9 -1.1% 16.9

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Revenue Trends Report - December 2012.pdf

2.2% 3.0% -0.1% Motor Vehicle 86.7 -3.9% 577.1 1.3% -3.3% 5.4% Cigarette 90.4 -5.2% 537.9 -3.8% -2.1% -2.5% Malt Beverage 1.7 -11.2% 13.0

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2013.pdf

2.4% 2.6% 1.5% Motor Vehicle 110.3 8.2% 226.5 7.9% 6.2% 1.2% Cigarette 91.8 -1.3% 159.9 -4.4% -3.2% -4.1% Malt Beverage 2.4 -3.9% 4.8

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf

2.7% -8.7% 1.4% Motor Vehicle 101.9 -12.5% 209.9 4.9% 3.3% 9.0% Cigarette 93.1 -6.6% 167.3 -5.4% -4.9% -1.2% Malt Beverage 2.5 5.1% 4.8

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Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf

0.9% -0.8% -2.0% Motor Vehicle 111.9 4.6% 956.7 0.2% -0.9% 0.4% Cigarette 87.7 -3.7% 837.3 -4.6% -6.6% -3.9% Malt Beverage 1.9 -7.6% 20.6

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RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf

any multiplier or leakage effects, and the two caveats noted. Other General Fund tax revenues will also decline (e.g., cigarette, gaming and liquor) as well as non-General Fund revenues (e.g., gasoline and Lottery), but those reductions will be

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QRR_2017Q1.pdf

573.4 -221.9 Motor Vehicle 326.2 302.4 23.8 1,005.3 1,009.0 -3.7 Cigarette 270.2 281.0 -10.8 923.5 937.7 -14.2 Other Tobacco Products 47.9 19.8 28

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QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf

2.9% 3.8% 3.8% Motor Vehicle 368.3 365.3 3.0 0.4% -0.4% 2.8% Cigarette 236.5 229.3 7.2 -1.5% -4.5% -3.8% Personal Income - Total 2,799.2 2,767

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

21.3 Motor Vehicle 361.2 360.7 0.5 1,326.2 1,275.1 51.1 Cigarette 248.3 252.1 -3.8 927.2 951.9 -24.7 Malt Beverage 6.7 6.5 0.2 24.5

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QRR_2015Q1.pdf

027.7 -1.8 Motor Vehicle 287.8 279.0 8.8 965.0 914.4 50.6 Cigarette 189.9 206.5 -16.6 678.9 699.8 -20.9 Malt Beverage 5.3 5.3 0.0 17.7

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QRR_2014Q4.pdf

097.9 27.1 Motor Vehicle 310.5 295.0 15.5 677.2 635.4 41.8 Cigarette 248.9 252.4 -3.5 489.0 493.3 -4.3 Malt Beverage 5.6 5.9 -0.3 12.5

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QRR_2014Q2.pdf

135.7 Motor Vehicle 354.0 332.8 21.2 1,237.6 1,211.4 26.2 Cigarette 252.0 258.7 -6.7 976.9 983.7 -6.8 Malt Beverage 6.5 6.3 0.2 25.1

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QRR_2013Q4.pdf

023.2 -62.3 Motor Vehicle 286.3 282.5 3.8 616.3 601.2 15.1 Cigarette 261.3 260.5 0.8 514.0 516.9 -2.9 Malt Beverage 6.3 5.8 0.5 13.4

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QRE_FY15-16.xlsx

5 Sales and Use 1 2,507.1 2,443.1 2,279.1 2,610.8 9,840.1 Cigarette 229.3 238.6 184.4 239.7 892.0 Malt Beverage 7.0 5.9 5.4 6.5

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QRE_FY15-16.pdf

5 Sales and Use 1 2,507.1 2,443.1 2,279.1 2,610.8 9.840.1 Cigarette 229.3 238.6 184.4 239.7 892.0 Malt Beverage 7.0 5.9 5.4 6.5

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

and Use 1 2,387.4 2,345.9 2,208.8 2,521.2 9,463.3 Cigarette 240.9 252.4 206.5 252.1 951.9 Malt Beverage 7.1 5.9 5.3 6.5 24.8

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

flat Sales – Motor Vehicle -16 General weakness PIT – Withholding 31 Steady gains PIT – Other -12 Timing shifts – finals to quarterlies Cigarette -10 Unusual recent weakness Gaming Expansion 85 Pick up from first two auctions Loan-Lease-Transfers -67 Lease-transfers revised

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

7.4% PIT - Withholding 10,450 10,424 -26 3.9% PIT - Other 3,530 3,282 -248 -2.4% Cigarette 1,136 1,138 2 -5.0% Inheritance 1,046 1,046 0 2.6% Gaming Expansion 86 201 114

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

2.4% lower wage and part-time jobs Income - Other -8.9% -6.6% S&P500 up ~+10% for year Cigarette -39.2% 8.6% processing issues Inheritance 5.9% -11.7% Realty Transfer -30.9% 6.2% All Other Tax

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

in the Administration activity. 2 The Agricultural Conservation Easement Purchase Fund includes an annual transfer of $25.5 million from cigarette tax revenues. Food Safety and Animal Health $104.1, 23% Food Assistance $52.7, 12% Agricultural Marketing and Development $39

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

sales recouped Income - Withholding -4.4% -1.3% lower wage and part-time jobs Income - Other -8.9% -7.1% Cigarette -39.2% 6.7% processing issues Inheritance 5.9% -6.2% Realty Transfer -30.9% 9.1% All Other Tax

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

9% 28 9 Sales and Use 4,302 3.9% 162 -9 Personal Income 4,654 4.1% 183 -7 Cigarette 522 -2.4% -13 -13 Inheritance 403 9.3% 34 31 All Other Tax 523 8.8% 42 20 All

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

0.9 7.0 Motor Vehicle 121.6 123.3 1,483.6 1,392.7 -1.4 6.5 Cigarette 104.2 116.4 1,118.8 1,198.3 -10.5 -6.6 Other Tobacco Products 12.1 11

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

9.6 7.6 Motor Vehicle 133.3 136.8 1,362.0 1,269.4 -2.6 7.3 Cigarette 95.8 103.0 1,014.6 1,081.8 -7.0 -6.2 Other Tobacco Products 11.3 10

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

8.1 7.4 Motor Vehicle 146.1 127.1 1,228.7 1,132.6 14.9 8.5 Cigarette 94.4 92.7 918.8 978.9 1.9 -6.1 Other Tobacco Products 10.5 10.2 106

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

968.9 3.9 7.7 Motor Vehicle 92.2 91.0 963.6 890.7 1.4 8.2 Cigarette 86.6 88.7 747.6 792.7 -2.4 -5.7 Other Tobacco Products 10.7 9.7 86

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

325.7 9.2 8.1 Motor Vehicle 115.3 108.5 871.4 799.7 6.3 9.0 Cigarette 62.2 62.6 661.0 704.0 -0.5 -6.1 Other Tobacco Products 10.1 9.0 75

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

513.8 3.8 7.9 Motor Vehicle 116.4 105.8 756.0 691.2 10.0 9.4 Cigarette 114.6 119.5 598.8 641.5 -4.2 -6.7 Other Tobacco Products 11.5 10.2 65

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

724.7 9.5 8.8 Motor Vehicle 114.8 110.7 639.6 585.4 3.7 9.3 Cigarette 103.9 109.1 484.2 521.9 -4.8 -7.2 Other Tobacco Products 12.5 10.1 54

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

998.0 8.3 8.7 Motor Vehicle 134.9 120.0 524.8 474.7 12.4 10.6 Cigarette 98.3 103.4 380.4 412.8 -4.9 -7.9 Other Tobacco Products 9.7 9.7 41

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

101.7 1.5 4.4 Motor Vehicle 108.5 113.4 799.7 792.5 -4.4 0.9 Cigarette 62.6 74.5 704.0 727.8 -16.1 -3.3 Other Tobacco Products 9.0 30.1 68

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

236.5 8.1 8.8 Motor Vehicle 121.1 118.2 390.0 354.7 2.4 9.9 Cigarette 106.5 121.9 282.0 309.4 -12.6 -8.8 Other Tobacco Products 11.1 10.4 31

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MTR-2018-08.pdf

514.9 8.5 9.1 Motor Vehicle 131.8 120.6 268.9 236.5 9.3 13.7 Cigarette 110.2 108.1 175.5 187.5 2.0 -6.4 Other Tobacco Products 10.4 9.4 20

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

796.8 9.7 9.7 Motor Vehicle 137.1 115.9 137.1 115.9 18.3 18.3 Cigarette 65.3 79.5 65.3 79.5 -17.8 -17.8 Other Tobacco Products 10.4 10.1 10

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

3.8 4.1 Motor Vehicle 123.3 119.9 1,392.7 1,366.8 2.8 1.9 Cigarette 116.4 119.3 1,198.3 1,261.6 -2.4 -5.0 Other Tobacco Products 11.3 10

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

7.0 5.0 Motor Vehicle 136.8 130.5 1,269.4 1,246.9 4.8 1.8 Cigarette 103.0 107.8 1,081.8 1,142.2 -4.5 -5.3 Other Tobacco Products 10.1 9

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

6.5 4.8 Motor Vehicle 127.1 111.1 1,132.6 1,116.4 14.4 1.5 Cigarette 92.7 111.0 978.9 1,034.5 -16.5 -5.4 Other Tobacco Products 10.2 11.0

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

5.2 4.6 Motor Vehicle 114.8 121.6 1,005.5 1,005.3 -5.6 0.0 Cigarette 93.5 108.6 886.2 923.5 -13.9 -4.0 Other Tobacco Products 9.1 8.6 87

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

712.5 5.3 4.5 Motor Vehicle 91.0 91.2 890.7 883.7 -0.2 0.8 Cigarette 88.7 87.1 792.7 814.9 1.8 -2.7 Other Tobacco Products 9.7 9.1 78

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

301.7 6.7 4.9 Motor Vehicle 105.8 101.5 691.2 679.0 4.3 1.8 Cigarette 119.5 118.4 641.5 653.3 1.0 -1.8 Other Tobacco Products 10.2 4.5 59

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

562.4 9.3 4.6 Motor Vehicle 110.7 108.5 585.4 577.6 2.0 1.4 Cigarette 109.1 120.2 521.9 534.9 -9.2 -2.4 Other Tobacco Products 10.1 0.5 49

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

2,897 2,875 0.1 3.5 Motor Vehicle 120 111 111 475 469 480 8.0 1.2 Cigarette 103 135 80 413 415 316 -23.4 -0.5 Other Tobacco Products 10 0 0 39 0 0 n

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

1,448 1,463 8.1 4.6 Motor Vehicle 121 127 121 236 235 243 (4.8) 0.6 Cigarette 108 100 87 188 164 150 8.2 14.5 Other Tobacco Products 9 0 0 19 0 0 n

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

780 797 784 780 1.6 1.6 Motor Vehicle 116 108 122 116 108 122 7.0 7.0 Cigarette 79 64 63 79 64 63 24.3 24.3 Other Tobacco Products 10 0 0 10 0 0 n

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

Vehicle 119.9 124.3 124.7 1,366.8 1,347.2 1,326.2 -3.5 1.5 Cigarette 119.3 81.8 87.4 1,261.6 911.5 927.2 45.9 38.4 Other Tobacco Products

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

Vehicle 130.5 121.0 113.0 1,246.9 1,223.0 1,201.5 7.9 2.0 Cigarette 107.8 81.0 81.1 1,142.2 829.7 839.8 33.0 37.7 Other Tobacco Products

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

Vehicle 111.1 113.2 123.5 1,116.4 1,102.0 1,088.5 -1.9 1.3 Cigarette 111.0 79.8 79.7 1,034.5 748.7 758.6 39.1 38.2 Other Tobacco Products

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

5 Motor Vehicle 121.6 116.8 109.3 1,005.3 988.8 965.0 4.1 1.7 Cigarette 108.6 73.9 71.5 923.5 668.9 678.9 46.9 38.1 Other Tobacco Products 8

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

1.5 Motor Vehicle 91.2 90.2 83.3 883.7 872.0 855.7 1.2 1.3 Cigarette 87.1 65.8 68.7 814.9 595.0 607.4 32.3 37.0 Other Tobacco Products 9

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

1.1 Motor Vehicle 113.4 90.4 95.2 792.5 781.8 772.4 25.5 1.4 Cigarette 74.5 46.2 49.7 727.8 529.2 538.7 61.2 37.5 Other Tobacco Products 30

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

1.3 Motor Vehicle 101.5 113.0 114.8 679.0 691.5 677.2 -10.2 -1.8 Cigarette 118.4 87.9 90.2 653.3 482.9 489.0 34.7 35.3 Other Tobacco Products 4

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

0.7% Motor Vehicle 108.5 98.9 84.5 577.6 578.5 562.4 9.7% -0.2% Cigarette 120.2 79.0 82.1 534.9 395.0 398.8 52.1% 35.4% Other Tobacco Products 0

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

0.8 Motor Vehicle 111.1 111.2 111.2 469.1 479.6 477.9 -0.1 -2.2 Cigarette 135.0 79.6 76.5 414.7 316.0 316.7 69.6 31.2 Other Tobacco Products 0

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

0.7 Motor Vehicle 122.9 124.9 124.7 358.0 368.3 366.7 -1.6 -2.8 Cigarette 115.9 86.7 89.8 279.8 236.5 240.2 33.6 18.3 Other Tobacco Products 0

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

1.0 Motor Vehicle 126.7 121.3 118.5 235.1 243.4 242.0 4.5 -3.4 Cigarette 99.9 87.1 87.5 163.8 149.7 150.3 14.7 9.4 Other Tobacco Products 0

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

Vehicle 124.3 124.7 115.9 1,347.2 1,326.2 1,237.6 -0.4 1.6 Cigarette 81.8 87.4 89.0 911.5 927.2 976.9 -6.5 -1.7 Malt Beverage 2.3

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

Vehicle 121.0 113.0 115.9 1,223.0 1,201.5 1,121.7 7.1 1.8 Cigarette 81.0 81.1 86.2 829.7 839.8 887.9 -0.1 -1.2 Malt Beverage 2.1

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

Vehicle 113.2 123.5 122.2 1,102.0 1,088.5 1,005.8 -8.3 1.2 Cigarette 79.8 79.7 76.7 748.7 758.6 801.7 0.1 -1.3 Malt Beverage 2.1

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

3.8 Motor Vehicle 116.8 109.3 106.7 988.8 965.0 883.5 6.8 2.5 Cigarette 73.9 71.5 80.2 668.9 678.9 724.9 3.4 -1.5 Malt Beverage 1.9

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

3.4 Motor Vehicle 90.2 83.3 73.7 872.0 855.7 776.9 8.3 1.9 Cigarette 65.8 68.7 74.5 595.0 607.4 644.7 -4.2 -2.0 Malt Beverage 1.8

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

3.6 Motor Vehicle 90.4 95.2 86.8 781.8 772.4 703.2 -5.0 1.2 Cigarette 46.2 49.7 56.2 529.2 538.7 570.2 -7.0 -1.8 Malt Beverage 1.8

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

2.9 Motor Vehicle 98.9 84.5 85.1 578.5 562.4 520.2 17.1 2.9 Cigarette 79.0 82.1 92.9 395.0 398.8 430.5 -3.8 -0.9 Malt Beverage 2.1

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

3.7 Motor Vehicle 111.2 111.2 105.1 479.6 477.9 435.1 0.0 0.3 Cigarette 79.6 76.5 84.9 316.0 316.7 337.6 4.0 -0.2 Malt Beverage 2.2

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

2.9 Motor Vehicle 124.9 124.7 103.5 368.3 366.7 330.0 0.1 0.4 Cigarette 86.7 89.8 92.8 236.5 240.2 252.7 -3.4 -1.5 Malt Beverage 2.3

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

3.8 Motor Vehicle 121.3 118.5 110.3 243.4 242.0 226.5 2.3 0.6 Cigarette 87.1 87.5 91.8 149.7 150.3 159.9 -0.4 -0.4 Malt Beverage 2.4

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

5.6 Motor Vehicle 122.1 123.5 116.2 122.1 123.5 116.2 -1.1 -1.1 Cigarette 62.6 62.8 68.1 62.6 62.8 68.1 -0.3 -0.3 Malt Beverage 2.5

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

900 917 10,640 SUT - Motor 192 162 159 150 136 127 120 99 129 146 139 129 1,687 Cigarette 74 112 98 96 98 94 58 74 73 -22 87 95 936 Other Tobacco Products 11 11 12 11

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

9,324 SUT - Motor 121 128 127 119 111 111 109 95 123 122 135 128 1,427 Cigarette 69 107 111 98 104 109 63 85 91 94 100 107 1,136 Other Tobacco Products 10 9 10 10 10

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mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf

and strength of annual payment. Bank Shares -15 Overpayments from prior year will reduce cash remittances. Other -40 Mainly from cigarette and capital stock and franchise taxes. ------ Subtotal – Decreases -270 ==== Net Revision 250 Revised estimate is $30.207 billion. The IFO

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

and use tax (gasoline/confidence) +$160 million • Corporate tax (2014/15 tax liability) +100 million • Personal income tax ‐20 million • Cigarette tax ‐20 million  Technical Factors ~+$30 million • Non‐tax (transfers and casino licenses) ‐$160 million • Inheritance tax payment +100

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

Growth Underlying Base Estimate $32,969 3.6% Annualize P/Y Tax Law Change 76 Slots License Fee 50 Philadelphia Cigarette Transfer -10 Capital Stock & Fran. Phase-Out -25 Liquor Store Profits -32 Credits and Settlements -40 Tax Amnesty -110 Special

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

72.8 Sales and Use 8,214 12.5 Nonmotor 7,154 14.4 Motor Vehicle 1,060 1.3 Cigarette 572 -0.6 Other Tobacco Products 88 12.7 Malt Beverage 13 -5.9 Liquor 260 6.0 Personal Income

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IFO ppt.pdf

Trend as Share of State Personal Income Personal Income Tax 2.80% to 3.07% CSFT phase-out various years Cigarette Tax $0.31 to $1.00 Fiscal years ending June 30. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

Income Summary of Findings  Revenues  Weak labor market. Slow wage growth.  Tax base erosion: sales and use, cigarettes, gaming?  Federal tax policy: income, payroll and capital income tax increases. Lower disposable income.  Little “wealth effect” from

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Use Non-Motor Vehicle 7,612 7,948 336 4.4% Motor Vehicle 1,160 1,235 75 6.5% Cigarette and Liquor 1,394 1,404 10 0.7% Inheritance 828 860 32 3.9% Personal Income Taxes Withholding 8

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf

6,841 6,236 2,602 -1,371 1 FY 23-24 Budget figure deducts $115 million anticipated transfer from cigarette tax revenues to Tobacco Settlement Fund. Rapid Deficit Expansion Next Two Fiscal Years November 15, 2023 13 Update: Deficit Contracts

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

88 5.12 4.8 6.14 4.7 Inheritance 1.46 1.49 1.9 1.72 3.6 Cigarette 0.81 0.77 -5.1 0.65 -4.0 All Other Tax 3.76 3.86 2.8 4

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

2016 21 Revenue Growth Pers. Income 4.6% Corporate Net 4.3% Sales-Use 3.4% All Other 2.7% Cigarette -3.4% TOTAL 3.6% Agency Growth DHS 5.1% Debt 4.5% Other 3.5% Education 3.3% Corrections

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

1.14 1.1% 1.26 2.4% Gross Receipts 1.00 1.06 5.8% 1.11 1.1% Cigarette 0.94 0.86 -7.8% 0.72 -4.4% All Other 3.39 2.91 -14.3% 3.32

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

5.4 Nonmotor 7,203 4.1 very strong online growth Motor Vehicle 1,164 14.1 pent-up demand Cigarette 705 0.9 sales strong nationally Other Tobacco Products 89 1.9 Malt Beverage 15 -1.5 Liquor 277 2

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

dollars. Slide has been updated to reflect February’s actual collections. Base amounts control for tax law changes (e.g., cigarette tax) and timing issues. Gaming Trends Also Weak February 28, 2017 12 Dollar Amounts 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

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2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf

Realty Transfer US home sales at all time low since 1995 Treasury Earnings FY 23-24 estimate is $791 million Cigarette Pre-Covid trend decline of -4.5% per annum Mid-Year Update Slide 15 Very strong lock in effect from

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

71m | 18-19 $82m  19-20 original forecast $91m | adding $114m  Lump sum deposit in September of $40m Cigarette and Other Tobacco  Legal age raised to 21  FDA bans most e-cig flavors  -$8m for 19-

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