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Impact of COVID-19 on the State Economy

Director Matthew Knittel gave a brief presentation to the Senate Majority Policy Committee on the impact of COVID-19 on the state economy.

Tags: coronavirus, economy, presentation

PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

4% Other, $156, 12% Pennsylvania State Police Overview | Page 5 Budgeted amounts for FY 2020-21 include $226 million in Coronavirus Relief Funds. These monies, used for personnel expenses, are shown throughout the report in the General Fund (Federal) category. 15- 2 The number of FTEs allocated across activities are approximated based on PSP estimates. 1 FY 2020-21 includes federal Coronavirus Relief Fund dollars. Traffic Enforcement and Crash Prevention | Page 10 Notes on Measures ▪ In CY 2020 the Traffic and Criminal

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

approved by Congress will have only a modest effect on output, largely after CY 2024. ▪ A new variant of the coronavirus does not arise that triggers further mitigation efforts. ▪ Approximately 330,000 payroll jobs lost to the pandemic (relative to 2019 for this shift, collections for FY 2021-22 are expected to increase 4.9% (excludes the transfer from the Federal Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund). (See Table 4.1.) For FY 2021-22, all major revenue sources are expected to outperform

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

national emergency on March 13. One week prior to that declaration, Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus, and on March 18, the first death due to COVID-19. As of May 24, the Pennsylvania Depart- ment of Health reports the relaxation of the limit on interest deductions and the employee retention credit that are part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act.  The delay of 2020 employer payroll taxes to no later than December 2021 (one-

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

national emergency on March 13. One week prior to that declaration, Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus, and on March 18, the first death due to COVID-19. As of June 19, the Pennsylvania Depart- ment of Health reports the relaxation of the limit on interest deductions and the employee retention credit that are part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act.  The delay of 2020 employer payroll taxes to no later than December 2021 (one-

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

2.8 percent) over FY 2019-20. 8 However, the FY 2020-21 budget utilizes $1.33 billion from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act Coronavirus Relief Fund (CRF) to temporarily reduce state General Fund expenditures in the Department of Criminal Justice (DCJ, $1.06 billion

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

loss limits, the relaxation of the limit on interest deductions and the employee retention credit that are part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act.  The small business loans and grants are the projected share that Pennsylvania for those 2 See https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5252. 3 FFIS Estimated State Funding for Coronavirus Pandemic, Federal Funds Information for States (April 7, 2020). 4 COVID-19 Stimulus Bill: What it Means for States, National

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NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf

NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES American Rescue Plan Act Funding 4 NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES Flexible Spending for States Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds 5 ○ $350 billion to state and locals • 195.3 billion to states and the disbursement ○ Funds must be obligate by Dec. 31, 2024, and spent by Dec. 31, 2026. ○ More flexible than CARES Act Coronavirus Relief Fund ○ NCSL working directly with Treasury to clarify guidance questions. ○ *Waiting on the Final Rule NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook More than a year has passed since Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus and first death due to COVID-19. Since that time, the state economy shed 1.1 million jobs and then In addition to the funds detailed in Table 2.6, the state has been allocated $3.9 billion in federal Coronavirus Relief Funds (CRF) under the CARES Act to offset expenditures incurred by state and local agencies to address the COVID-

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

COVID-19 wave and resulting mitigation efforts, Congress enacted three pieces of legislation. These actions included the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act which included the first round of EIPs ($1,200 per adult), the establishment approximately $3.3 billion will be advanced from July to December 2021. Provision 4: SNAP Emergency Allotments The Families First Coronavirus Response Act (Spring 2020) expanded SNAP to increase the emergency allotments made to households. States are now able to provide

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Measures ▪ Average cost for domestic violence services increased in FY 2019-20 due to supplemental funding provided under the federal Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. ▪ Hotline callers not served identifies individuals who could not be connected to services program outcomes. ▪ Average cost for legal services increased in FY 2019-20 due to supplemental funding provided under the federal Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Human

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

provision is projected to reduce FY 2020-21 PIT withholding revenues by $12.3 million. Other Miscellaneous Federal Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Funds (Act 24) The act provides that federal money from the Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund in excess of the amount appropriated in 2021 shall be transferred to the General Fund. The provision takes

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook More than a year has passed since Pennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus and first death due to COVID-19. Since that time, the state economy shed 1.1 million jobs and then In addition to the funds detailed in Table 2.6, the state has been allocated $3.9 billion in federal Coronavirus Relief Funds (CRF) under the CARES Act to offset expenditures incurred by state and local agencies to address the COVID-

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

3.Excludes expenditures supported by funds provided under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), the Family First Coronavirus Response Act of 2020 and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act of 2020 (CARES Act). Source: Executive Budget, various years. Projections by IFO. Amount ($ millions

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

23. In addition to the funds detailed in Table 2.6, the state was allocated $3.9 billion in federal Coronavirus Relief Funds (CRF) under the CARES Act to offset expenditures incurred by state and local agencies to address the COVID-

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

23. In addition to the funds detailed in Table 2.6, the state was allocated $3.9 billion in federal Coronavirus Relief Funds (CRF) under the CARES Act to offset expenditures incurred by state and local agencies to address the COVID-

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

PSERS. Calculations by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 For FY 2020-21, the state used funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act to fund employer contributions that typically rely on General Fund monies. The shift

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

On March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was enacted as part of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. 1 The program made forgivable loans available to small businesses and other entities

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

26 school districts in their Allegheny County sample increased millage rates for SY 2020-21. See https://www.alleghenyinstitute.org/coronavirus-impact-on- school-district-tax-revenue/. Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Appendix 2 (see pages 9 and 10) displays county

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

in dollar millions. Actual expenditures are listed in the year the expenditure was recorded. 1 FY 20-21 includes federal Coronavirus Relief Fund dollars. Youth Development Centers and Forestry Camps | Page 34 Notes on Measures ▪ Data for FY 2015-16 include

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

4.7 0.8 3.3 Total 34.1 17.5 30.9 Note: Figures in dollar billions. CARES is Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act of 2020. CAA is Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2020. ARP is American Rescue Plan

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MRU_2021_11.pdf

minor and repealed (+$15.6 million, 171.6%) tax revenues. November non-tax revenues included $3.84 billion from the Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund and met estimate. Escheats (-$2.2 million) and licenses and fees (-$0.5 million) collections were

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

days of the FY 2020-21 Revised Monthly Estimates | Page 4 pandemic. The special funds were later reimbursed from federal Coronavirus Relief Fund monies. The $50 million will now be transferred from those special funds to the General Fund for unrestricted

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