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Student Loan Debt Forgiveness

The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.

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Student Loan debt Forgiveness

The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.

08/31/2022

STATE AND LOCAL TAX REVENUES: A 50 STATE COMPARISON

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

01/19/2022

State and Local Tax Revenues: A 50 State Comparison

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the 50 states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

11/24/2020

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative level of state and local taxes across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

01/29/2020

Income and Property Tax Burden for Retirees

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States (December 2018). The letter also compares Pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states.

03/06/2019

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property), (3) state tax rates and (4) state debt levels.

12/03/2018

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels.

02/01/2018

State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federation of Tax Administrators to facilitate a comparison of state and local tax systems across the fifty states. The report examines (1) the relative state and local tax burden across states, (2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. 

05/31/2017

Updated School District Property Tax Forecast

Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast.

01/09/2017

Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

31 Current Services Versus Cost-to-Carry Baselines ...............................................................34 Expenditure Extrapolators ...............................................................................................36 General Fund Pensions ...................................................................................................37 General Fund Debt Service .............................................................................................39 Human Services .............................................................................................................41 Education ......................................................................................................................43 Criminal Justice .............................................................................................................47 State Police ...................................................................................................................48 All Other Expenditures....................................................................................................49 Section 6: Fiscal Outlook ................................................................................................... 51 The first forecast represents a “cost to carry” concept and only includes increases in mandatory spending such as debt service, pension contributions and entitlement programs. The second forecast assumes that expenditures grow in a manner that is sufficient to maintain the

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

Office (IFO) publishes this research brief which examines the potential impact of House Bill 880. The bill lowers the statutory debt limit for Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program (RACP) projects by $100 million per annum until the ceiling reaches $2.65 billion dollar amount of grants awarded by each administration.  The distribution of RACP projects by county.  A summary of debt limit changes to the program.  A discussion of the potential economic impact to local units.  An analysis of

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

25 Section 5: Expenditure Outlook .............................................................................................. 27 Current Services Versus Cost-to-Carry Baselines .............................................................................. 30 General Fund Pensions .................................................................................................................. 31 General Fund Debt Service ............................................................................................................. 33 Human Services ............................................................................................................................ 33 Education ..................................................................................................................................... 36 Criminal Justice ............................................................................................................................. 37 All Other Expenditures ................................................................................................................... 39 Section 6: Fiscal Outlook ......................................................................................................... 41 Appendix baseline expenditures. The first forecast represents a “cost to carry” concept and only includes increases in mandatory spending such as debt service, pension contributions and entitlement programs. The second forecast assumes that expenditures grow in a manner that is sufficient to

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

FYTD $22,394 $22,055 $339 Growth 0.7% 0.7% -0.3% Dollar amounts are in millions. PA CONSUMER DEBT OUTPACES REGION The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) publishes quarterly state data on consumer debt. The data span major loan types, such as mortgage, auto, credit card and student loan, and provide insight as to

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

2018, the combined unfunded liabilities of the two 1 systems are projected to approach $65 billion. These liabilities represent a debt that 2 must be paid and will result in increasing employer contribution requirements. Current projections indicate that employer contributions for The timing of the bond issuance is another area of concern. In order to obtain the best possible gains, the debt must be incurred when the borrowing costs are low. There is also a greater risk that investment returns will prove

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

overleveraged due to the rapid decline in home values coupled with a slumping stock market. To correct this imbalance, excessive debt had to be eliminated through bankruptcy proceedings or a slow deleveraging process where borrowers pay down debt over many years. Data show that debtors have used both methods to reduce leverage. Tabulations from the US Bankruptcy Court

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

the Pennsylvania economy generated 54,800 additional payroll jobs, up from 45,800 in 2014.  Relative to income, consumer debt levels have declined dramatically during the past decade. Moreover, growth in student loan debt shows recent signs of slowing.  A solid housing market. Data suggest that existing home sales increased by 10 to

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RB-2016-02.pdf

for each incentive represent the amount available or distributed for economic development in the applicable Ðiscal year. Amounts expended for debt service on borrowing that Ðinanced current or prior economic development spending are not included in the tables, but are itemized separately in the off‐ budget expenditures discussion. For programs Ðinanced through debt service, the amounts reported represent the actual awards or distributions in the applicable Ðiscal year instead of the debt service

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

baseline expenditures. The first forecast represents a “cost to carry” concept and only includes increases in mandatory spending such as debt service, pension contri- butions and entitlement programs. The second forecast assumes that expenditures grow in a manner that is sufficient three economic impact payments immediately spent only 30% to 40% of those funds and saved the residual or paid down debt. The data from Table 3.7 confirm that finding as checka- ble deposit balances increased by $2.44 trillion (238%

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

baseline expenditures. The first forecast represents a “cost to carry” concept and only includes increases in mandatory spending such as debt service, pension contributions and entitlement programs. The second forecast assumes that expenditures grow in a manner that is sufficient to displays year-over-year growth rates for metrics that track the stock market, Pennsylvania home values and rent, and consumer debt. Notable trends include the following: ▪ For 2022 Q3 (average value for quarter), the S&P 500 Index was down 11

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7.0% 2012.2

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt 6 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 7 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 8 Personal Income Tax

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MER-2014-02.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐ over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

to spend between 29% (first EIP) to 25% (third EIP) of stimulus checks and use the residual to pay down debt or increase savings. 3 Because such a large share of funds is not consumed immediately, but instead might facilitate higher 6 monies during the period of April 2020 to April 2022. The analysis assumes that residents revert to a “typical” debt level they can manage, but there is also a moderate and permanent paydown of existing debt. Because the analysis uses

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

Act 1 Allocations (slots) $530 1.9% State (exclude Act 1) $9,492 34.4% Federal $815 3.0% Other (debt related) $855 3.1% Total $27,578 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. State New revenues sufficient in first year, but increasing “wedge” over time.  Analysis assumes the property tax that finances grandfathered debt service is phased out and not retained. 1/19/2017 5 SB 76 of 2013: Fiscal Summary ($ billions) 1/19

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

net, this shift likely enhances Pennsylvania sales tax revenues, as many goods are taxed but services are generally exempt. Consumer Debt Increases from Prior Year, Credit Card Balances Continue to Decline The New York Federal Reserve Bank released consumer debt data for 2020 Q3. Pennsylvania consumer debt declined 0.9% from the prior year to $42,700 per capita due

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

2.0%. 3 The Pennsylvania economy showed weak expansion in 2016 and acceleration in 2017. 4 For 2016, total consumer debt increases modestly due to a reduction in primary mortgage debt. 5 Consumer inflation in both the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro regions begins to accelerate. 6 Gasoline prices have recovered from

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

2.0%. 3 The Pennsylvania economy showed weak expansion in 2016 and acceleration in 2017. 4 For 2016, total consumer debt increases modestly due to a reduction in primary mortgage debt. 5 Consumer inflation in both the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro regions begins to accelerate. 6 Gasoline prices have recovered from

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7.0% 2012.2

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State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdf

2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. For this analysis, the term “tax burden” equals the ratio of tax revenues to state personal income. Although the shifted to consumers and shareholders who reside in other states. 3 Tax data for state liquor store profits and outstanding debt are from 2019 State Government Finances. 4 A tourism adjustment for sales tax was made for two states: Hawaii and

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State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdf

distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. For this analysis, the term “tax burden” equals the ratio of tax revenues to state personal income. Although the term tax consumers and shareholders who reside in other states. 3 Tax data for state liquor store profits and outstanding debt are from 2019 State Government Finances. 4 A tourism adjustment for sales tax was made for two states: Hawaii and Nevada. For

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State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdf

distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. For this analysis, the term “tax burden” equals the ratio of tax revenues to state personal income. Although the term tax consumers and shareholders who reside in other states. 3 Tax data for state liquor store profits and outstanding debt are from 2018 State Government Finances. 4 A tourism adjustment for sales tax was made for two states: Hawaii and Nevada. For

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

slightly weaker than expected, but decent.  Business profits continue to lag.  Limited borrowing by PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. Recent PA Economic Trends Recent Economic Trends and Administrative sectors. Data for 2017 represent the annualized pace through April. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Mortgage Debt Falls – Other Debt Increases June 7, 2017 13 Annual Growth in PA Per Capita Debt 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 Consumer Debt 7 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 8 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 9 Personal Income Tax 5% $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 7 The Pennsylvania Economy – Consumer Debt • While per capita student loan debt continues to rise (3.9 percent in 2013:3), consumers are paying down or

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SR2017-05.pdf

8.5 Luzerne 37,860 208,169 589,087 18.2 6.4 Table 4 FY 2015-16 School District Debt Service by County Debt Service 1 Property Tax 2 Expenditures 3 County Debt Service Percentage of: Property Tax Expenditures Table 4 FY 2015-16

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SR2017-03.pdf

2) the distribution of state and local taxes across revenue sources (e.g., income, sales and property) and (3) state debt levels. For this analysis, the term “tax burden” equals the ratio of tax revenues to state personal income. Although the license fees include: franchise license taxes, organization, filing and entrance fees, taxes on property (measured by amount of corporate stock, debt or other basis besides assessed value of property), and other licenses applicable with few, specified exceptions to all corporations. Tax

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

labor shortage also results from elevated demand attributable to the federal government injecting large amounts of borrowed funds (i.e., debt financed) into the national economy through various programs. When those programs and extra weekly payments expire, it is likely that year. Data show that many consumers have a more solid financial profile because they used EIPs to reduce credit card debt. Due to low interest rates, a record number of homeowners also refinanced mortgages and reduced their monthly payments, which should

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

1%.  Will it continue? o Higher federal taxes reduce disposable income in 2013. o Psychological impact: fiscal cliff and debt ceiling. o Any residual pent‐up demand? 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 5 Consumer Sentiment Index 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 6 40 60 80 100 May 2011 Debt Ceiling Debate Begins 74.3 Source: University of Michigan. Jan 2013 71.3 Aug 2011 55.8 Consumers: Income vs

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

labor shortage also results from elevated demand attributable to the federal government injecting large amounts of borrowed funds (i.e., debt financed) into the national economy through various programs. When those programs and extra weekly payments expire, it is likely that year. Data show that many consumers have a more solid financial profile because they used EIPs to reduce credit card debt. Due to low interest rates, a record number of homeowners also refinanced mortgages and reduced their monthly payments, which should

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

dual-use” technology and equipment (i.e., that with both civilian and military applications) obtained through the business operations of foreign firms. American Investors Underwriting Terrorism One might ask: What does my pension plan or mutual fund have to do with fund manager. As the composition of indices is, at times, proprietary and in other instances not accessible via state records, this report does not account for investments in companies that are active in terrorist- sponsoring states that are made via an

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

while writing legislation. 2) Regular convening with members, federal agencies and support committees Where is the United States Headed? More Debt Penn Wharton Budget Model 3 Debt has a Snowball Effect on GDP Penn Wharton Budget Model 4 Example: PWBM Model with Tax Module Penn Wharton Budget

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RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf

earning less than $125,000 (single) or $250,000 (married) a year can qualify for up to $10,000 of debt cancellation. Pell Grant recipients under the income thresholds can qualify for up to $20,000 of debt relief. The forgiven debt would not be subject to federal income tax. • The student loan forbearance is extended through December

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

Baby Bust: Born 1965 to 1984 o Unusual exits from labor force. o Changing attitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt?  Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004 o Wave of college-age students: more student loan debt. o Does debt cause delays in home purchases, marriage and child bearing, thereby restraining growth? 12.June.2014 5 Three

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NewsStand_2019_August.pdf

additional detail on 2019 Q2 pro- duction trends in Pennsylvania, see the IFO’s latest Natural Gas Production Report. Consumer Debt Grows 4.3% On August 13, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released U.S. consumer debt data for 2019 Q2. For Penn- sylvania, total debt grew to $472 billion, increasing 4.3% over the prior year

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

and higher discretionary income from federal tax cuts are likely two relevant factors that contribute to that outcome. PA Consumer Debt Increases 0.6% in 2018 Q2 On August 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for 2018 Q2. For Pennsylvania, the data show a modest increase in per capita consumer debt (0.6%) from

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

70 vs. age 71.  More working during “normal” retirement years.  Dramatic shift in spending towards housing. More home debt. 2 Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office Recent Demographics: 2010 to 2017 PA Residents (000s) Change (000s) Age Group 2010 expenditures for pensions and Social Security as savings. Source: U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey, northeast region. Age 75+ Real Housing Debt Doubles Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 13 Cumulative Growth: 2003 to 2015 Composition of Debt Total Home All 2003

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

higher than the closed loan, the extra funds were used for the following purposes:  Pay off other bills or debts (40 percent)  Home repairs or new construction (31 percent)  Savings (14 percent)  Auto or other major purchases zone investment or projected economic impact are not yet available. Senator Collett asked about states that have implemented student loan debt forgiveness programs and how much those programs might positively impact demographic trends. Two states currently offer loan forgiveness programs for

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

due to mitigation efforts and business closures. Although income grew significantly, many residents used the federal payments to pay down debt or were reluctant to spend (e.g., unwillingness to travel). By con- trast, Cash Income expanded again at a similar 6 concludes the section with recent data from national financial markets, Pennsylvania home values and rents and per capita consumer debt. The table shows YOY growth rates, while the final column displays the cumulative growth rate from 2019 Q2 (pre-pandemic

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

due to mitigation efforts and business closures. Although income grew significantly, many residents used the federal payments to pay down debt or were reluctant to spend (e.g., unwillingness to travel). By con- trast, Cash Income expanded again at a similar 6 concludes the section with recent data from national financial markets, Pennsylvania home values and rents and per capita consumer debt. The table shows YOY growth rates, while the final column displays the cumulative growth rate from 2019 Q1 (pre-pandemic

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

2 0.2 Non-Expense Items 45.5 58.1 37.3 40.0 58.2 59.5 Debt Service/Investment 23.9 25.6 28.2 16.8 22.1 33.9 Total 418.2 442.4 440.5 411 35 # Brownfield/redevelopment projects approved 51 62 89 74 84 80 Efficiency Average cost per project Outcome Private debt supported 1 -- -- -- -- -- $1,210 Taxes generated (IFIP) 2 $69.2 $77.4 $94.4 $87.7 $93.2 -- # Jobs created at redeveloped

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Presentation 3 SB 76 of 2013 (IFO analysis on website).  Eliminates school district property taxes over time (retain current debt service).  Increases personal income tax: 3.07% to 4.34%.  Increases sales tax rate: 6.0% to 7 Act 1 Allocations (slots) $530 1.9% State (exclude Act 1) $9,492 34.4% Federal $815 3.0% Other (debt related) $855 3.1% Total $27,578 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 8

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

sales tax revenues. Four factors impact spending trends and could motivate that result. First, PA consumers could be paying down debt. However, recent data from the Federal Reserve Board of New York show that PA per capita consumer debt levels increased (1.3%) during the past nine months. An increase in credit card, auto and student loan debt more

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

of the moratorium on federal student loan repayments and the forgiveness of up to $20,000 in federal student loan debt announced on August 24, 2022. The adjustments are summarized in Table 1 and additional detail can be found in the of 2022 and (2) the extension of the moratorium on federal student loan repayments and up to $20,000 in debt forgiveness announced on August 24, 2022. Excludes the $115.3 million transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund and the $353

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

2020 Q2 due to an influx of state and federal support through UC payments and other economic stimulus measures. Household Debt Declines for the First Time Since 2014 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released household debt and credit data for 2020 Q2. Total household debt and credit card balances both declined from the previous quarter, $34

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MER-2014-11.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

and Budget Offices.  Allows General Assembly to focus time and energies over the allocation of resources, as opposed to debating the size of the pie.  Revenue Estimate used for deliberative purposes. 10.Jul.2012 5 2012 GPNP Conference IFO and tax burdens (later this month). 10.Jul.2012 10 2012 GPNP Conference Economic Outlook: Another Summer Slowdown?  European debt crisis continues to simmer.  Weak employment reports for May and June.  Uncertainty over federal tax and spending policy

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Independent Fiscal Office

23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. ... (Full Report) Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Economics and Other August 31, 2022 The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. ... (Full Report) August 2022 Monthly Economic Update Revenue & Economic Update August

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

Fiscal Office Scope and assumptions. Potential consolidation savings and costs. • Administrative savings, property tax relief, state funding, salary standardization and debt service. Calculation of real estate tax millage. • Implications for taxpayers. 16.Dec.2014 3 Presentation Overview District-wide tax base 1,458 per student) in FY 2012-13. At the conclusion of that year, York County school districts had outstanding debt of $855.9 million ($13,738 per student). No impact on end result as debt would become the responsibility of

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

self-employed and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Metro Area Employment. Financial, Housing and Debt Trends May 23, 2022 7 Year-Over-Year Growth Rate 2019.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 2022.1 6 17.0 Rent – Pittsburgh 3.9 7.0 8.3 8.5 8.1 14.6 PA Auto Loan Debt 12.7 9.9 8.9 7.4 -- 17.0 PA Credit Card Debt -6.2 -2.8 3.1

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

Insight. 24 . Sept . 2013 3 The Elusive Recovery Recovery never takes off. o Previously, consumers were retrenching. o Paying down debt: deleveraging. Now, other factors responsible. o Government tightening. o Firms not investing due to uncertainty; weak demand. Federal and state gov’ts unlikely to contribute. o Federal – debt ceiling debate, continuing sequester. o State and Local – pensions and health care benefits. o Monetary Policy - pull back to start

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

Trends for Seniors.  Seniors working more: ~25% in 2016.  More income dedicated to housing expenses.  More housing debt. III.Funding for Seniors’ Programs.  Outlook for revenue sources is tepid.  Demand and price effects create imbalance. May working more.  Dramatic increase in last decade.  Trend accelerates since Great Recession.  Senior spending patterns shift. More debt.  Home costs are a larger share of spending.  Mortgage debt increases significantly. May 24, 2017 10 U.S

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

of economic growth after the second quarter. Data for 2019 Q1 will be released at the end of July. Consumer Debt Increases Modestly in 2019 Q1 On May 14, the Federal Reserve Board of New York released consumer debt data for 2019 Q1. The data show the total per capita debt of PA consumers increased by 0.5% from

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

term care is not covered by Medicare and cost increases are absorbed by private wealth or state Medicaid programs. Student Debt Cancellation Led to General Deleveraging The July NBER Digest summarized a working paper that explored the link between student debt, other forms of credit utilization and labor market outcomes. Using a natural experiment created by recent collections lawsuits, the study

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Student Loan Debt Continues to Climb in 2018 Q3 On November 16, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylva- nia, the data show that per capita student loan debt across all consumers increased

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

full year, total wages paid increased by 4.0% while the average wage paid increased by 2.9%. PA Consumer Debt Increases Moderately in 2018 Q1 On May 17, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for the first quarter of 2018. On a year-over-year basis, the data reveal the following growth rates

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

that one-third of people aged 18-34 live at home. Pennsylvania ranks 2nd highest in the nation for student debt. For PA graduates with student debt, the average debt level is $34,798. 2 The outflow of individuals leaving Pennsylvania includes those moving home after graduation

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MER-2015-01.pdf

of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

to Funding Shifts Additional Lottery support for MA 92 Funding shift for DEP-DCNR-DCED programs 59 GF transfers for debt service and other costs 187 Sub-Total 338 Due to Changes in Policy Reduce PlanCon payment from GF (new debt) 214 Eliminate reimbursement to WC Security Fund 165 New fee for PSP 104 Minimum wage impacts on DHS program costs

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IFO ppt.pdf

returns. • When do these processes end? January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Household Mortgage Debt Still High 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Mortgage Debt / Personal Disposable Income January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Consumer Credit Balances Reduced 10%

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

the tax cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds. The computation assumes that one-third of the tax cut in the budget impact from eliminating the ACA individual mandate. JCT estimates that provision reduces outlays by $297 billion and reduces debt by $314 billion over ten years. Sources: Supporting documentation may be found at entity websites. Mid-Year Update Reduce federal

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7.0% 2012.2

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

funding approach when COLAs are provided on an ad hoc basis. • Provide for lower total interest payments on COLA-related debt. Reduce the amortization period for COLA-related debt from 20 to10 years and change amortization schedule from level percentage of payroll payments to level dollar payments. • Provide for

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

applicable) may seek approval for an exception. 5 The statute currently authorizes four exceptions: pension obligations, special education expenditures, grandfathered debt service and electoral debt service. 6 The exceptions process is administered by PDE, which reviews the data submitted by the school district and validates

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

applicable) may seek approval for an exception. 5 The statute currently authorizes four exceptions: pension obligations, special education expenditures, grandfathered debt service and electoral debt service. 6 The exceptions process is administered by PDE, which reviews the data submitted by the school district and validates

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RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf

issue bonds to participate. Lack of cash flow, savings or current bond ratings effectively preclude many employers from issuing additional debt to allow the option of a one-time advance payment. The act excludes specific employers such as the Pennsylvania Turnpike 31, 2019. Source: State Employees' Retirement System. Table 1: Top Five Eligible SERS Employers Based on UAL Baseline Setoff Net Debt Net Cost/ FYE Contribution Credit Contribution Service (Savings) 2021-2025 $636 -$466 $170 $229 -$238 2026-2030 580 -466 114

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RB-2018-01.pdf

applicable) may seek approval for an exception. 6 The statute currently authorizes four exceptions: pension obligations, special education expenditures, grandfathered debt service and electoral debt service. 7 The exceptions process is administered by PDE, which reviews the data submitted by the school district and validates

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

Baby Bust: Born 1965 to 1984.  Unusual exits from labor force.  Changing attitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004.  Wave of college-age students: more student loan debt.  Does debt restrain growth by delaying home purchases, marriage and child bearing? 2015 Pennsylvania Population Distribution 7/14/2017

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

X or Baby Bust: Born 1965 to 1984. • Unusual exits from labor force. • Changing attitude towards home ownership and mortgage debt?  Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004. • Wave of college‐age students: more student loan debt. • Does debt cause delays in home purchases, marriage and child bearing, thereby restraining growth? 7 Three Demographic Waves 12.May

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

The CBO updated its deficit projections from the previous release in June 2017 to show substantial growth in fed- eral debt levels over the next decade. Much of the deficit growth will occur in the next five years and then level for real GDP to reflect recent changes in federal tax policy. (Full Report) Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt Roughly one out of five new mortgages this winter were given to Americans who use 45 percent of their monthly

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

reduce FY 2019-20 PIT revenues. FY 2019-20 Monthly and Quarterly Estimates | Page 5 Farm Show Complex Debt Service (Act 20) The act requires the transfer of PIT collections in an amount necessary for the Department of General Services to make annual debt service payments related to the lease of the Farm Show Complex. This provi- sion is effective July 1, 2019. Prior Law None

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

Over 70% of Economic Impact Payments Saved or Used to Pay Down Debt The New York Federal Reserve released findings from two pandemic-related surveys. Survey recipients were asked to classify how they of the payment used for the following categories: spending on essentials, spending on non-essentials, donations, savings or paying down debt. For first-round EIPs, those surveyed reported spending 18.2% on essentials (i.e., daily living expenses), 7.7% on

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf

26% of the Philadelphia CPI-U. Row 3 displays Federal Reserve holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Debt holdings increased by $2.9 trillion (80%) from October 2019 to October 2020 and then $1.5 trillion (23%) to October 2021. Federal Reserve debt holdings more than doubled to supply funds for multiple federal stimulus packages. Row 4 displays the commensurate increase in Demand

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

if they are current with their monthly payments. Hence, housing and rental price pressures may be delayed. PA Auto Loan Debt Increased Nearly 13% in 2021 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released consumer debt data for 2021 Q2. Pennsylvania auto loan debt grew 12.7% from 2020 Q2, the fastest rate of growth across

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MER-2015-06.pdf

price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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MER-2015-04.pdf

of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2015-03.pdf

of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2015-02.pdf

of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-12.pdf

of residential homes whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. 4 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 5 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-10.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-09.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-08.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-07.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-06.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-05.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-04.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-03.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐ over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2014-01.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year‐ over‐year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of PA

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MER-2013-12.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year -over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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MER-2013-11.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

pace (4.2% in latest quarter). Moreover, median existing home values increased by 4.4% last year, while total mortgage debt of Pennsylvania consumers was flat (includes home equity loans). Overall, these data suggest sound economic fundamentals and potential for further will likely be exacerbated by the Federal Reserve winding down its unusually large portfolio of US Treasury securities (and other debt) as well as the new corporate territorial tax regime (allowing for repatriation of certain deferred foreign income), which will motivate

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

1.6% Gasoline -2.7% -28.4% -10.4% 18.0% 4.8% 10.0% 5.5% -4.8% Wealth/Debt Metrics Home Price Index 2.3% 2.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% 4.6% 4.7% 3.4% All Consumer Debt 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 0.0% n.a. 9.6% 2.0% 0.9% Student Loan Debt 5

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

 Modest growth, very slow “recovery.”  Weakness in labor market.  Consumers still “unwinding.” Rebuilding home equity. Paying down debt. Much uncertainty.  Concern now shifts to student loan debt. PA second highest in nation at $29,960 per student.  Where will the unexpected growth come from?  Consumers

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Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf

net interest outlays, which double as a percentage of GDP over the projection period, further increase total deficits. 9 Federal Debt Held by the Public, 1900 to 2052 Federal debt held by the public is projected to increase in most years in the projection period, reaching 110 percent of GDP

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

180 0% to 20% 50 50 70 66 16 32 Total 918 779 1,559 3,539 2,690 317 Debt Holdings (December, $ billions) 2021 Dec Excess 2018 2019 2020 2021 Amount Percent Securities Held by Fed $3,880 $3,751 wealth effects) 4 More stimulus $$ (EIPs) makes their way into economy ▪ Original Surveys: ~25% spent | ~75% saved or pays down debt ▪ Spending recirculating faster? (money velocity and economic multipliers) ▪ Student loan moratorium | no renter eviction tsunami | SNAP extension January 31, 2022

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

0% 4.3% 1.0% All Mortgage Loans 0.6% -1.1% -1.3% 4.2% 3.6% All Consumer Debt 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 4.3% 3.5% Note: Home sales not seasonally adjusted. Median price seasonally adjusted. Source: Home sales and median home price from Zillow. House Price Index from Federal Housing Finance Agency. Debt data from New York Federal Reserve Board. Demographic Trends Cause Tight Labor Market January 28, 2020 6 Annual Change (000s

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 Quarterly Pennsylvania Economic Indicators Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of PA

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7.0% 2012.2

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 U.S. Delinquent Debt Share of consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7.0% 2012.2

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. 2 Delinquent Debt Share of U.S. consumer debt more than 90 days delin- quent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7.0% 2012

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

securit- ized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over- year change in the index. 2 Delinquent Debt Share of U.S. consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.3% 0.7% 7.0% 2012.2

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

securit- ized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Rate is the year-over- year change in the index. 2 Delinquent Debt Share of U.S. consumer debt more than 90 days delinquent. 3 2012.1 2.0% 2.9% 10.2% 0.7% 7.0% 2012.2

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

Mac. Rate is the year-over-year change in the index. Data are from the Federal Housing Financing Authority. Delinquent Debt Share of US consumer debt that is more than 90 days delinquent. Data are from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2011.4 4

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

EEEP Tax Credit. In Georgia, the touring or theatrical production company must originate in Georgia or host its U.S. debut and rehearse a minimum of seven days in the state. This is slightly shorter than the ten-day rehearsal requirement hosts its first public performance in front of a live audience in the state or (2) hosts its U.S. debut in Georgia after rehearsing for a minimum of seven days in the state. The program is also available for recorded

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 2 The Proposal  Eliminates local school property tax.  Property taxes to service debt existing as of Dec. 31, 2011 retained and phased-out.  State funding based on FY 2012-13 district collections 480 10,931 PROPERTY TAX REPLACEMENT Property Tax Forecast 12,678 13,184 13,704 14,103 14,497 Existing Debt Service -2,071 -1,939 -1,807 -1,675 -1,543 Property Tax Replacement 10,607 11,245 11,897

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

Transfer to Tobacco Settlement Fund The administration’s proposal creates a cigarette tax transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund for debt service payments. This provision is expected to reduce FY 2022-23 cigarette tax revenues by $115 million. See Table 1 for this transfer and the transfers that follow. If not provided for from cigarette tax collections, the Tobacco Settlement Fund debt service payments are transferred from sales and use tax. Therefore, the most recent IFO revenue estimates already incorporate this transfer

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

Authority The administration’s proposal increases the SUT transfer to the Commonwealth Financing Authority for school construction (PlanCon) debt service payments. This provision is expected to reduce FY 2020-21 non- motor SUT revenues by $5 million. See Table 1.9 Tobacco Settlement Fund The administration’s proposal creates a cigarette tax transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund for debt service payments. This provision is expected to reduce FY 2020-21 cigarette tax revenues by $115 million. Industry Current Combined Difference % Change

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

The administration’s proposal creates a sales and use tax (SUT) transfer to the Tobacco Settlement Fund for debt service payments. This provision is expected to reduce FY 2019-20 non-motor SUT revenues by $115 million. See Table 1.5 Authority The administration’s proposal increases the SUT transfer to the Commonwealth Financing Authority for school construction (PlanCon) debt service payments. This provision is expected to reduce FY 2019-20 non- motor SUT revenues by $20 million. 18-19 19-20

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

 Low medical care inflation PA consumers do not appear to be overextended  Modest growth in 2018 total consumer debt (+0.9%)  Mortgage debt declines slightly, but student loan debt continues to grow May 20, 2019 12 PIT Forecast Underpredicts FY 18-19 May

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

5% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% Mid-Atlantic Gasoline -29.2% -10.5% 14.8% 15.0% All Consumer Debt 2.2% 4.2% 2.0% 2.5% Note: Net job gains exclude self-employed. Values for 2018 reflect data for the first quarter of 2018 (house price index and consumer debt), data through May (gasoline) or are forecasts by the IFO (all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

4 296.7 672.0 Fixed Assets Expense 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 3.7 Debt Service/Investments 5.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grants 361.8 333.9 333 Since 2020 the Pennsylvania Treasury has recovered over $1.1 billion. The U.S. Treasury Offset Program collects past-due debts owed to state and federal agencies, including benefit overpayments. Funds are garnished from tax refunds, Social Security and other federal

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

and supervised 25,454 non-depository entities that provide residential mortgage, auto sales financing, check cashing, money transmission, debt management and other financial services. State regulators are the sole licensing authority for nonbank mortgage providers, money services businesses and consumer finance 4,274 n.a. Financial Services Companies Check Casher Licensing Act 863 831 799 767 734 n.a. Debt Management Services Act 262 213 198 138 138 n.a. Other 1 135 163 179 181 185 n.a. Sub-Total 1

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

suggests roughly 1/3 of SUT from business. PA consumers reluctant to spend.  Modest wage gains.  PA mortgage debt continues to fall (higher savings).  Auto loans remain strong. 25.Jan.2017 15 What Drives Weak Sales Tax? Year- report. All Other includes personal loans and other miscellaneous lines of credit. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total consumer debt for 2016 Q3. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 25.Jan.2017 16 PA Consumer Debt Growth Year-Over-

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jackson ppt.pdf

is uncertain. • A recovery in housing markets is key to more robust economic growth in 2013-15. • The Eurozone sovereign-debt crisis is the biggest threat to growth; we see a 30% risk of another US recession in 2012. The US reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. • Pessimistic Scenario: Double-Dip Recession (30%) • Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis leads to a global credit crunch. • Policymakers allow the payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment insurance benefits to expire

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

6 Unemployment Rate 14.3 10.1 7.1 7.3 7.0 6.4 5.7 7 Auto Loan Debt -1.7% 1.9% 2.6% 2.5% 12.7% 9.9% 8.9% 8 Credit Card Debt -8.2% -8.9% -11.6% -14.3% -6.2% -2.8% 3.1% 9 Home Mortgage Debt 2.1%

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

Note: Figures in dollar billions. Active COVID Relief Programs (PA Data) March 4, 2022 15 Student Loan Repayments Student Loan Debt (federal) ~$70 billion Number Borrowers 1.83 million Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Amount $640 million Share That Defer 80% Institutions 1,255 126 43 33 44 51 PSP (includes MLF Shift) 253 67 43 31 38 42 General Obligation Debt -16 81 67 33 96 39 All Other 395 558 268 258 302 272 Total Annual Change 3,465 3

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Testimony-02-2020.pdf

4.4% 3.9% UE Rate (level) 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 4.3% 4.0% -- Per Capita Consumer Debt 1.5% 3.0% 0.6% 1.8% 3.7% -- Existing Home Values 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5 4.2% UE Rate (level) 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.9% 4.3% Per Capita Consumer Debt 1.8% 1.8% 0.5% 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% Existing Home Values 4.9% 5.5% 5

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

5.5% (2021); and 3.6% (2022). 7 The statute currently authorizes four exceptions: pension obligations, special education expenditures, grandfathered debt service and electoral debt service. The forecast projects that school districts will qualify for exceptions valued between $40 million and $50 million annually, but

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

Impacts 300,400 renter households (new experimental Pulse Survey)  Philly Fed: 4.5% of PA renter households have rental debt by Dec (IPUMS)  Impacts 48,100 renter households | $224 million debt | $4,700 average Taxable status of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans  Nearly all will be forgiven | IRS determines it

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RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf

each year. 2 Moreover, a recent analysis by the Brookings Institution finds that nearly three-quarters of monthly student loan debt payments (in dollar terms) are from earners in the top two income quintiles. 3 Policymakers will need to compare the 3 The article finds that 40% of households (incomes above $74,000 in 2019) owe nearly 60% of outstanding education debt and make 73% of payments. See https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/10/09/who-owes- the-most-

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the Background for the Pension Debate Rotary Club of York July 15, 2015 Role of the Independent Fiscal Office. Overview of the two major state pension Eliminates the rate collars.  Executive Budget proposal – issue pension obligation bonds and limit investment fees to reduce unfunded liabilities. Debt service on bonds to be paid by proceeds from modernizing the PA liquor system. 7/15/2015 16 Pension Proposals

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the Town Hall Meeting on Pension Reform Background for the Pension Debate Pennsylvania NewsMedia Association Foundation Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry March 26, 2015  Role of the Independent Fiscal Office state pension plans: • State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS). • Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS).  Useful terms in the pension debate: • Defined benefit plans. • Act 120, rate collars and annual required contribution (ARC). • Unfunded accrued liabilities (UAL).  Size of the

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

cost-to-carry (mandatory spending) and additional expenditures over which policymakers exercise limited control.  Includes human services, public safety, debt service, statutory funding shifts, pensions and employee compensation. Remaining expenditures classified as discretionary.  Includes agency operations and the basic Elimination Proposals SB 76 of 2013 (IFO analysis on website).  Eliminates school district property taxes over time (retention for debt service).  Increases personal income tax: 3.07% to 4.37%.  Increases sales tax rate: 6.0% to 7

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

moderate slowdown next few years. Expenditures: many one-time measures expire. Mainly affects Department of Human Services. Ramp up of debt obligations (Tobacco MSA bond). Bright spot: pension contribution growth flat or moderate. March 1, 2019 3 Structural Imbalance in General Act 1 Allocations (slots) $532 1.7% State (excludes Act 1) $10,779 35.1% Federal $843 2.7% Other (debt related) $1,759 5.7% Total $30,751 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. IFO

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

6 35.6 95.8 Fixed Assets Expense 30.2 34.5 38.2 30.1 38.0 36.9 Debt Service/Investments 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grants 193.9 209.2 194 67 5.31 3.76 10.43 Grants 7.06 7.06 7.28 7.53 6.96 12.75 Debt Service/Investments 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other 1 2.06 2.18

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

5 13.3 26.6 Grants 252.7 312.4 400.0 385.5 360.3 469.8 Debt Service/Investment 10.0 15.1 10.3 10.1 16.2 18.6 Fixed Assets Expense 2.3 1.5 0 74 $0.94 $1.01 Grants 28.78 30.45 29.84 28.61 30.25 30.12 Debt Service/Investment 10.04 15.10 10.26 10.13 16.22 18.57 Other 0.50 0.54 1.05 1

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

or (2) $450 million. Beginning in FY 2016-17 and thereafter, transfers are made to the Commonwealth Financing Authority for debt service payments. The amount and timing of the transfers are determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget gains within the same category of income. Transfers Beginning in FY 2019-20, $13.3 million is transferred annually for debt service payments related to the lease of the Farm Show Complex. Exemptions Major exemptions include: qualified distributions from certain savings

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

or (2) $450 million. Beginning in FY 2016-17 and thereafter, transfers are made to the Commonwealth Financing Authority for debt service payments. The amount and timing of the transfers are determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget gains within the same category of income. Transfers Beginning in FY 2019-20, $13.3 million is transferred annually for debt service payments related to the lease of the Farm Show Complex. Exemptions Major exemptions include: qualified distributions from certain savings

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

the same category of income. Transfers Beginning in FY 2019-20, $13.3 million is transferred annually for debt service payments related to the lease of the Farm Show Complex. Exemptions Major exemptions include: qualified distributions from certain savings plans (e 450 million. Beginning in FY 2016-17 and thereafter, transfers are made to the Commonwealth Financing Authority for debt service payments. The amount and timing of the transfers are determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget. Exemptions Major

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

Index 11 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% n.a. 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 n.a. $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

Index 11 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% n.a. 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $5,020 $5,060 $5,140 n.a. $5,810 $5,870 $5,940 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

Index 11 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% Student Loan Debt 12 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,150 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 $5,880 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

Index 11 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% Student Loan Debt 12 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,150 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 $5,880 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

Index 11 6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

Index 11 6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

Index 11 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

Index 11 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes children Index 11 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 Industrial Electricity Sales

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children Index 11 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% n.a. 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 n.a. $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

Index 11 5.9% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,690 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,430 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

Index 11 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 3.9% 3.3% 4.1% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,710 $4,690 $4,830 $4,920 $5,450 $5,430 $5,590 $5,690 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

Index 11 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% n.a. 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,710 $4,690 $4,830 n.a. $5,450 $5,430 $5,590 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

Index 11 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 $4,830 $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 $5,590 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

Index 11 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 n.a. $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

Index 11 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% n.a. 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 n.a. $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

Index 11 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

Index 11 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 3.6% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

Index 11 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 3.6% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

Index 11 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% n.a. 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 n.a. $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

Index 11 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

Index 11 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

Index 11 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% n.a. 2.7% 2.3% 2.7% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 n.a. $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

Index 11 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% n.a. 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

Index 11 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% n.a. 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 n.a. $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

Index 11 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% 2.4% 2.6% 3.7% 2.9% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,390 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 $5,070 $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

Index 11 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,390 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 $5.070 $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

Index 11 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% n.a. 2.0% 2.1% 2.7% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,390 $4,480 $4,590 n.a. $5,070 $5,180 $5,330 n.a. Industrial Electricity Sales by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes children

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

recipients nationwide spent the stimulus payment on their mortgage. Over 20 Percent of Households Used Stimulus Payments to Pay Down Debt Data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey from July 2 to July 7 detail how Americans being interviewed. One-fifth of households surveyed plan to use some or all of their stimulus payment to pay down debt and 11.8% of households plan to save or invest their stimulus payment. Pennsylvania Unemployment Rate Declines to 13.0

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

11,111 $108 $343 Discretionary, but costs passed to locals Human Services $17,200 $154 $527 Excludes enhanced FMAP offset Debt Service $1,208 Higher Education $1,816 $18 $56 Includes PHEAA Corrections $648 $6 $20 Operating, meals, inmate healthcare All growth rate by 1 ppt each year over 3 years. Amount is extra spending in third year. SERS-PSERS and Debt Service are excluded because the short-term impact of higher inflation is less clear. 4 Inflation Erodes Real Pension Benefits

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

3.73 4.01 0.28 7.5 Healthcare/Other 0.85 0.88 0.03 3.0 General Obligation Debt 1.13 1.13 0.00 0.4 All Other 7.32 7.66 0.34 4.6 Note: Billions 4.0 4.70 3.0 Healthcare/Other 0.88 1.07 22.1 1.26 4.1 General Obligation Debt 1.13 1.17 3.3 1.35 3.6 All Other 7.66 7.95 3.9 8.67

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

0% to 20% 51 55 67 67 14 26 Total 1,101 951 1,421 3,467 2,441 238 Debt Holdings (October, $ billions) Change or Growth 2018 2019 2020 2021 Amount Percent Securities Held by Fed $3,973 $3,624 2.3 PSERS 200 78 65 74 71 2.4 SERS 58 -18 -44 -22 -9 -2.3 General Obligation Debt 30 67 33 96 39 4.5 All Other 559 329 326 365 333 2.6 Total Annual Change 2

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

Values +8.0% 2020 Q3 Small Bus Revenue -28% 2020 Q4 Sales Tax +6.9% 2020 Q3-Q4 Credit Card Debt -8.6% 2020 Q2-Q3 Rental Market Low Income HH S&P 500 Index +8.8% CY 2020 Lost Economic 22 State Correctional Institutions 962 69 43 36 45 PSP MLF Funding Shift 41 40 31 29 33 General Obligation Debt 45 36 65 29 96 All Other 682 250 212 203 220 Total Annual Change 4,835 1,247 1

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

Short-term relief, but long-term costs ramp up.  Securitization of Tobacco Fund: ~$95 million per annum.  PlanCon debt service phase-in. MLF funding shift begins. Long-term revenue potential is limited.  Continued modest growth of sales tax Wages growing by ~+3.8%. Inflation is modest (~+1.4%). Other economic fundamentals are sound.  Consumers still cautious about debt, except student loans.  Housing values up 4.4%. Corporate profits appear to rebound. Federal tax reform may have material

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

3% Sales-Use 3.4% All Other 2.7% Cigarette -3.4% TOTAL 3.6% Agency Growth DHS 5.1% Debt 4.5% Other 3.5% Education 3.3% Corrections 3.2% TOTAL 4.1% Average Growth Rates | FY 2017-18 cost-to-carry (mandatory spending) and additional expenditures over which policymakers exercise limited control.  Includes human services, public safety, debt service, statutory funding shifts, pensions and employee compensation. Remaining expenditures classified as discretionary.  Includes agency operations and the basic

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

22 State Correctional Institutions 962 69 43 36 45 PSP MLF Funding Shift 41 40 31 29 33 General Obligation Debt 45 36 65 29 96 All Other 682 250 212 203 220 Total Annual Change 4,835 1,247 1 Act 1 Allocations (slots) $533 1.7% State (excludes Act 1) $11,253 35.8% Federal $926 2.9% Other (debt related) $546 1.7% Total $31,414 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Property Tax

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

Expenditures concentrated in three agencies  Education (41%) | Human Services (38%) | Corrections (8%)  All other agencies are ~13% | includes debt service (3%)  Demographic pressures and healthcare costs  Lottery under financial pressure due to lack of jackpots February 28 Act 1 Allocations (slots) $533 1.8% State (excludes Act 1) $10,962 36.2% Federal $897 3.0% Other (debt related) $439 1.4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies include contributions to PSERS ($2

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

7% 5.4% -- FHFA House Price Index 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% -- Per Capita Consumer Debt Auto Loans 7.6% 5.4% 3.1% 2.0% 5.1% -- Credit Card 3.0% 3.9% 4.5% 0.0% -1.1% 3.9% -- Student Loan-Other 3.6% 5.3% 5.2% 4.9% 3.1% -- All Debt 1.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.9% 3.7% -- Growth Rate or Annual Change Source: U.S. Bureau of

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

since 1998 Home Values +10.8% highest since 2005 Sales Tax Revenues +5.4% online sales tax doubles Credit Card Debt -11.6% 70% of impact payments saved or pay down debt S&P 500 Index +12.4% New Round of Federal Stimulus March 11, 2021 5 CARES CAA ARP Notes Payments

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

as firms and markets adjust to the rate cut over time, workers and consumers could also benefit. In the recent debate regarding the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, the following studies or papers were cited. All incidence figures if the federal tax cut is financed through borrowing, then those analyses should consider the impact of a higher national debt on interest rates and future economic growth. In summary, it is inherently difficult to quantify the long-term impact of

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

available to expand hiring and investment. Households are in better financial shape to increase spending because they have paid down debt, especially credit card debt. Gains in the stock market and housing markets for 2013 may bolster consumer confidence and give rise to a “wealth

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

millage rate beyond its Act 1 index. 6 The statute currently authorizes four exceptions: pension obligations, special education expenditures, grandfathered debt service and electoral debt service. 7 The forecast projects that school districts will qualify for exceptions valued between $48 million and $50 million annually

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

90 percent of a temporary tax cut or rebate, while the remainder would be saved or used to pay down debt. 2 If recipients spend 60 percent of the tax cut extension (and the spending does not “leak” outside of the

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State and Local Tax Burden Study.pdf

include: franchise license taxes, organization, filing and entrance fees, taxes on property (measured by amount of corporate stock, debt, or other basis besides assessed value of property), and other licenses applicable with few, specified exceptions to all corporations. State and Local

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

Most unemployment compensation is spent. Nearly 75% of non-PPP stimulus to residents with < $50k income. Per capita credit card debt down 14% in 2021 Q1. Note: Billions of dollars. PPP includes both pass-through entities and C corporations. Source: U

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

it is not clear how much of the rebates will be spent, as opposed to saved or used to reduce debt. The revenue impact is also itemized separately and not included with the revenue impact from business closures and tax payment

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

00 to $13.00 per hour. The papers reach different conclusions and underscore the contentious nature of the debate that surrounds higher minimum wages. The first study used a unique da- taset of administrative data that facilitated a more nuanced analysis

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

the FMAP reimbursement rate until the termination of the national public health emergency declaration. As Congress continues to debate additional state relief to address COVID-19 impacts, it is possible that additional federal funding for state agencies may become available in

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

8% 5.3% n.a. Zillow Home Sales (nsa) -1.4% -0.1% 1.5% 6.3% Per Capita Consumer Debt 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% Revenues Through March (exclude COVID-19) +$165 million over estimate Note: Figures

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RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf

500 per annum on average through non-repayment of government loans. Through executive action, up to $20,000 of loan debt will also be forgiven. • Lingering health issues related to COVID-19. An unknown number of former workers may have symptoms

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

 Repealed itemized deductions except for state and local taxes (SALT) paid (up to $10,000), interest on home mortgage debt below $750,000, charitable contributions and other miscellaneous deductions. 1  Increased the child tax credit from $1,000 to

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

Act 1 Allocations (slots) $533 1.8% State (excludes Act 1) $10,962 36.2% Federal $897 3.0% Other (debt related) $439 1.4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies include contributions to PSERS ($2

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

224 7.2% Earned Income $1,563 5.1% Act 1 Allocations $532 1.7% Federal $843 2.7% Other (debt related) $1,759 5.7% Total $30,752 100.0% Note: dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

1984. • Unusual exits from labor force. What is the cause? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004. • Student loan debt and household formation. 3.Dec.2014 Demographic Waves Drive Trends 5 3.Dec.2014 0 200 400 600 800 1

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

Act 1 Allocations (slots) $531 1.9% State (excludes Act 1) $9,944 34.9% Federal $775 2.7% Other (debt related) $934 3.3% Total $28,494 100.0% Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 4

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

1,884 million. • One‐time expenditure deferrals expire. • Use of special funds scaled back. • Mandatory expenditure categories (e.g., pensions, debt service, human services and corrections) constitute as much as 80 to 90 percent of the increase.  Revenue growth of

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

4 1.0 1.9 3.1 3.8 Federal Deficit -$438 -$585 -$665 -$804 -$981 -$1,008 Gross Federal Debt 18,120 19,539 20,206 21,375 22,546 23,675 Note: Dollar amounts in billions. Sources: Congressional Budget

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

the tax cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds. The computation assumes that one-third of the tax cut in

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

the tax cut to (1) pay dividends, (2) repurchase shares, (3) purchase equipment/structures, (4) pay workers, (5) pay down debt, (6) reduce prices or (7) simply retain the funds. The computation assumes that one-third of the tax cut in

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perez ppt.pdf

states)  State employee retirement and benefits costs (10 states)  Various health and human services programs (7 states)  Debt service (4 states) Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, Fall 2011 Top Fiscal Issues for 2012 Sessions Source

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

Planning and Construction Workbook) is a school construction reimbursement program that as- sists school districts to reduce long-term capital debt. Act 70 of 2019 established an alternative to Plan- Con known as the Maintenance Program. Funds will be awarded on

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Asset Expenses 2,395.1 2,396.0 2,525.8 2,488.7 2,338.7 2,258.4 Debt Service/Investments 20.5 12.9 7.9 43.6 26.5 42.5 Other 253.1 270.3 57

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

6 LRP is the Pennsylvania Primary Care Loan Repayment Program which offers grant funding to repay qualifying education debt in exchange for a two-year service commitment to a practice site in a HPSA. 10 Calendar year basis. Premature death is

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Residual toll revenues may be used to service the PTC’s senior, subordinate and subordinate special bond debt or to partially fund the statutory annual payments of $450 million made to the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT). 2

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

30%-60% of EIPs spent. Most of that within 3 months. Most unemployment compensation is spent. Per capita credit card debt down 14% in 2021 Q1. Does not account for any fraud that flows out of state. Note: Billions of dollars

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

regular seasonal dip EIP #2 $6.1b 2021 Q3 UC $3.8b CTC $1.7b forecast PA 2021 Q2 auto debt up +12.7% EIP #1 $11.0b Recent Surge in Corporate Net Income Tax August 25, 2021 5 600 800

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

450 million. Beginning in FY 2016-17 and thereafter, transfers are made to the Commonwealth Financing Authority for debt service payments. The amount and timing of the transfers is determined by the State Treasurer and Secretary of the Budget. Exemptions Major

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

8% 5.3% n.a. Zillow Home Sales (nsa) -1.4% -0.1% 1.5% 6.3% Per Capita Consumer Debt 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% Revenues Through March (exclude COVID-19) +$165 million over estimate Note: Figures

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

Many ana- lysts have raised concerns regarding economic growth beyond 2018 due to the impact of higher federal debt on long-term interest rates. For example, the latest Budget and Economic Outlook (April 2018) from the Congressional Budget Office projects that

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novak ppt.pdf

Full? • Increased economic activity equals tax revenue increases if and only if the tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further employment and spending cuts Gross Domestic Product Pennsylvania * 4-quarter growth rates in real terms Percent -6 -4

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Newsstand_February_2020.pdf

News IFO NEWS STAND Mortgage Originations Grow 87% as Homeowners Refinance The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released household debt and credit data for 2019 Q4. Mortgage origi- nations grew by 87% year-over-year from $402 billion in 2018

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

decline in corporate net income tax. Spending was up $127 billion (3.2%), driven by outlays for interest payments on debt, which increased by $65 bil- lion (14.1%) from the prior year. U.S. Corporation Profits Grew by 5.5%

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

used for some other purpose that does not provide a direct benefit to the Pennsylvania economy (e.g., paying down debt). This flow increases federal income tax liability (as compared to the NAP scenario). In total, the counterfactual has an economic

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

0.1% 1.2% 0.8% Criminal Justice 2.8% 4.8% -5.9% 0.2% 0.3% -0.4% Debt 2.8% -1.4% 0.8% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% PSERS 48.5% 20.1% 9.7% 1

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

was due to a one-time transfer of $115.3 million from non-motor revenues to the Tobacco Revenue Bond Debt Service Account. Motor vehicle collections were $5.3 million (3.9 percent) higher than the prior year. Other tax revenues

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

Index 11 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 Industrial Electricity Sales

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

time transfer from cigarette tax to the Tobacco Settlement Fund for the repayment of the Tobacco Revenue Bond debt service. This transfer will occur by April 30, 2022. The provision takes effect July 1, 2021. Prior Law This transfer is consistent

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

time transfer from cigarette tax to the Tobacco Settlement Fund for the repayment of the Tobacco Revenue Bond debt service. This transfer will occur by April 30, 2021. The provision takes effect July 1, 2020. Prior Law The same transfer occurred

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

Bank of Chicago released a working paper that measured the effects of COVID-19 Economic Impact Payments on consumer spending. Debit card spending patterns were tracked for a sample of consumers (approximately 16,000 recipients) after receipt of the $1,200

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Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf

by the IFO. Note: dollar amounts in millions. Outstanding OPEB Pension Total State Personal Unfunded Liability Employer State Rank State Debt Liability 1 Net Liability 2 Net Liability Income Ratio (Teachers) 3 Cont. 3, 4 New Jersey 1 $66,923 $85

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

them. For example:  The most recent report on the long-term budget outlook included a discussion of how federal debt would differ if key economic variables were higher or lower than CBO estimates  A report on federal subsidies for

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Many analysts have raised concerns regarding economic growth beyond 2018 due to the im- pact of higher federal debt on long-term interest rates. For example, the latest Congres- sional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook (April 2018) projects that the

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

year (very prelim) Other state fundamentals remain in good shape  Home sales sluggish, but solid price gains  Consumer debt picks up in first half of 2019 (+4.3%) November 14, 2019 9 PA Economic Forecast November 14, 2019 10

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House Budget Hearing Request.pdf

wsipp.wa.gov/About/Staff. 2 all amounts of money paid out by a government other than for retirement of debt, investment of securities, extension of credit or as agency transactions. Table C (enclosed) reflects total expenditures for the United States

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

Q4). Moreover, median existing home values increased by 4.3% in the latest quarter (2018 Q3) while per capita consumer debt increased modestly (1.8%) for the entire year. Overall, these data suggest sound economic fundamentals and potential for further expansion

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

3.9% --- Philadelphia CPI-U -0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% 1.5% Per Capita Consumer Debt 1.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.9% 3.5% --- Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

Paying -- -- 11.4% 19.1% Zillow Home Value Index 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.2% Per Capita Consumer Debt 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 0.3% Note: % Renters Deferring/Not Paying reflects payment status from prior month. Value

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

8 11,200 35.4 Federal 815 3.0 843 2.7 926 2.9 1,000 3.2 Other (debt related) 855 3.1 1,759 5.7 546 1.7 600 1.9 Total 27,579 100.0 30

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

6.0% Education 10,382 10,733 -0.2% 3.4% Corrections 1,963 2,059 2.6% 4.9% Debt 1,128 1,111 2.8% -1.4% PSERS 1,719 2,064 48.5% 20.1% SERS 665 787

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Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf

After implementation of Act 25, exceptions were only allowed to be used for pension and special education spending and certain debt service. The Act also changed the exception for pensions to exclude increases in aggregate salaries (at the school district, not

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

displays the unfunded actuarial accrued liabilities for the Systems between 1980 and 2017. An unfunded liability represents a long-term debt that must be paid off, or amortized, over time through installment payments. The unfunded liability will fluctuate in response to

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

be granted school service credit for the USERRA leave after June 30, 2018, either by actual payment or by actuarial debt under section 8325 (relating to incomplete payments), the employer that employed the school employee when the member contributions are made

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

16A), entitled“Anact toprovidefor the expenses ofthe Executive, Legislative andJudicialDepartments of the Commonwealth, -the public debt and for the public schoolsfor the fiscalperiod July 1, 1978, to June30, 1979, andfor thepayment ofbillsincurredand remaining unpaidat the closeofthefiscalperiodending June 30, 1978, “arevalidated. Section

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About IFO

local pension analysis as well as leading performance-based budget reports. Other responsibilities include working on special projects pertaining to debt, retiree healthcare, federal stimulus and economic development incentives. Mitchell Young Revenue Analyst Mr. Young joined the IFO in 2022 and

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