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Where Did the Workers Go?

This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report.

The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.

 

Tags: brief, demographics, labor, research

2022 Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28.

Tags: demographic, demographics, outlook

Economic and Budget Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton presented on the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy and Leadership Center.

The presentation was updated on March 18, 2022 for a technical change on slide 30.

Tags: budget, demographics, economic, estimates, presentation

2021 Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27.

Tags: demographic, demographics, outlook

Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook.

Tags: demographics

2022 Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28.

10/05/2022

Budget Hearing Materials 2022

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its budget hearings. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics.

02/22/2022

2021 Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27.

11/15/2021

Demographic and Labor Market Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a demographics and labor market update to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce.

10/06/2021

Demographic Outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook.

09/08/2020

IFO Update on Selected Fiscal Topics and Pennsylvania demographics

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the annual conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials and provided updates on topics addressed in recent IFO analyses. The topics included 1) school property tax forecasts and analysis, 2) Pennsylvania demographic trends, 3) the most recent IFO revenue estimates for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19 and 4) the impact of pension changes resulting from Act 5 of 2017. 

03/09/2018

Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20.  The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table

02/16/2018

Pennsylvania Fiscal Outlook Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel addressed the Society of Municipal Analysts to provide an update on Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook, demographics and current budget status. 

10/19/2017

Pennsylvania's Fiscal and Demographic Outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan gave a presentation to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce and Industry addressing Pennsylvania’s long-term fiscal outlook, demographics and the current revenue forecast. 

07/14/2017

Budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees

The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21.  The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas.    Download a version for optimized web viewing

02/16/2017

The Impact of demographics on General Fund Revenues and Expenditures

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the 2016 Pennsylvania Data User Conference regarding the impact of demographics on General Fund revenues and expenditures.

05/12/2016

Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office (August 2019) or IHS Markit (October 2019). Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabu- lations from the 2018 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and for Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from IHS Markit, Wells Fargo and PNC. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2021 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and

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Independent Fiscal Office

of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. ... (Full Report) Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook Revenue Estimates November 15, 2022 The Independent Fiscal Office 2022 This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, we submit this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and the from various sources. Economic projections for the US and Pennsylvania are from the January 2012 forecast by Global Insight, Inc. Demographic projections are from the Penn State Data Center based on tabulations from the 2010 Census. Historical revenue and expenditure data

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO sub- mits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth Pennsylvania are from the IFO, while projections for the U.S. are from the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2020 Popula- tion Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance with the

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Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf

fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members of the General Assembly. In accordance

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

KNITTEL Director - This page was intentionally left blank. - Table of Contents Section I: Introduction ............................................................................................ 1 Section II: The Economic and Demographic Forecasts ....................................... 3 Section III: Driver Responsiveness to Toll Rates .................................................. 5 Section IV: Methodology ......................................................................................... 7 Data and Assumptions .............................................................................................................................. 9 Note on future transit, road and bridge needs. The remainder of this report contains five sections. Section II presents the economic and demographic forecasts used for this analysis. Section III discusses previous research on toll road usage. Section IV describes the methodology used

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RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf

brief updates an original release in July 2022 (updated August 2022) to include data for more recent months and new demographics data from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook (published October 2022). Tables 1 to 3 and the accompanying text are updates, while Table 4 is new. For

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been requested in Jobs ...................................................................... 3 Economics – Jobs and Labor Force Participation ......................................................... 4 Economics – Inflation and General Economics ............................................................ 5 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs ...................................................................... 6 Demographics – Pennsylvania Snapshot ..................................................................... 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Decedent Trends and Excess Death Estimate ................. 8 Demographics – Net Domestic Migration Trends ......................................................... 9 Revenues – Fiscal

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report posted to IFO website: www.ifo.state.pa.us.  Demographic Outlook  New projections from Penn State Data Center.  Economic Outlook  Latest projections from IHS Global Insight.  growth come from? The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 2 15.Nov.2012 Some Questions  What implications do broad demographic trends have for revenues and expenditures?  What is the likely path of the Pennsylvania economy over the next six

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

PBC Policy Roundtable June 12, 2014 Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office How Demographics Impact the Pennsylvania Economy Demographic Outlook o General Trends: past decade and next two. o Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others. o Very long term: trends through 2040. Economic Implications o Labor Force, Income and Jobs

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

1 – Benefit Comparison “Projections of comparative benefits under the current DB plans versus possible DC plans and options using various demographic and financial scenarios to show the positive and negative impact of each plan option on employers and employees.” – House Resolution Commission engaged the services of one of its consulting actuaries, David H. Killick of Conrad M. Siegel, Inc. Using various demographic and economic scenarios, the actuary determined the DC plan contribution rates that would be required to produce the same benefit

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the The Impact of Demographics on General Fund Revenues and Expenditures 2016 Pennsylvania Data User Conference May 12, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar Policy Recommendations. 2 The Independent Fiscal Office 12.May.2016 Demographic Are Key. • General Trends: Past Decade and Next Two. • Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others. Economic Implications. • Size of Labor Force and Participation Rates Important. • Income and Jobs Composition Changes

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IFO ppt.pdf

2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year outlook report. – Release date is November 15 th . – Consider economics, demographics, revenues and expenditures. • Act also requires Office to convene a revenue estimating conference by January 31 st of each year will be posted on website: www.ifo.state.pa.us • Modeling is simple and transparent. – Projections motivated by economics and demographics. – Focus on growth rates, not absolute levels. • Use FY 2011-12 as the “base year” for all projections. Assume “Current

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been requested in Budget vs IFO ....................... 5 Economic Trends .......................................................................................................................... 6 PA Employment Gains and Losses by Sector .................................................................... 7 State Metric Comparison ........................................................................................................... 8 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ................................................................................. 9 Pennsylvania Demographic Trends .................................................................................... 10 State Domestic Migration Comparison .............................................................................. 11 2018-19 Revenue Update........................................................................................................ 12 2019-20 Revenue Projections

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

Harvard University and his A.B. in economics from Princeton University. November 15, 2022 2 Four Parts and Main Themes Demographics ▪ Working age cohort (age 20-64) continues to contract ▪ Labor force participation rates must increase rapidly to facilitate jobs creation funding increases assumed permanent ▪ Federal COVID relief/enhanced FMAP ends in FY 22-23 (assumed) November 15, 2022 3 PA Demographics: 2020 - 2025 - 2030 November 15, 2022 4 Age Cohort Number (000s) Number Change Percent Change 2020 2025 2030 20-25

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22 Welcome Matthew Knittel | Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Overview, Demographic and Economic Outlook Don Boyd | Rockefeller Institute of Government  Presentation on Public Pension Funding Risk Mark Ryan | Deputy Director average wage growth 2.1% inflation 1.1% real wage increase also known as a “flat line” Real GDP Growth Demographic Outlook Projections from the Pennsylvania State Data Center Official State Demographer Based on 2015 U.S. Census Estimates 11/15

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been requested in Staff Resources ......................................................................... 4 Pennsylvania Economic Trends ................................................................................................................. 5 PA Employment Gains and Losses by Sector ....................................................................................... 6 State Metric Comparison ............................................................................................................................ 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot .................................................................................................... 8 Most PA Job Gains to Age 55+ ................................................................................................................. 9 Net Domestic Migration Trends ............................................................................................................ 10 PA Demographic Trends Cause Tight

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently requested data, including s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of the

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently requested data, including s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of the

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

Office Pennsylvania’s Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20 Provide Five-Year Projections For: • Pennsylvania Demographics • Pennsylvania Economics • General Fund Revenues • General Fund Expenditures Why Do We Do It? • Establish a neutral baseline to assess fiscal situation. • Identify long-term budget trends. • Alert policymakers to structural imbalances. 3.Dec.2014 The Economic and Budget Outlook 2 Demographic Outlook Age Distribution Life Expectancy and Median Age Age of Workforce Labor Force Participation Rates Components of Population Change All

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

Pennsylvania’s Fiscal and Demographic Outlook Presentation to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce and Industry Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office July 14 Fund expenditures and revenues as a percentage of state GDP. Source: Economic and Budget Outlook, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2016. Demographic Trends 7/14/2017 6 Subtle, yet crucial impact.  Hard to see in a single year.  Determines work

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

survey strategies to measure post-school outcomes for special education students to ensure survey re- sponses are representative of the demographics of former students. In SY 2018-19, 78% of sampled indi- viduals were either enrolled in higher education, competitively employed was 87%, which was above the national av- erage of 86%. Pennsylvania’s graduation rate exceeded the national average across demographic groups, with the exception of Black and Hispanic students. In SY 2018-19, the 4-year cohort graduation rate for

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been requested in Economic Trends ..................................................................... 5 Actual and Projected Federal Relief for Pennsylvania ................................................. 6 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth Rates ........................................................... 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ........................................................................ 8 Net Domestic Migration Trends ................................................................................ 9 PA Labor Force Participation Rates ......................................................................... 10 Fiscal Year to Date Revenues ................................................................................. 11 General

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

PASBO 63 rd Annual Conference and Exhibits The IFO Perspective on State Financial and Demographic Data Presentation at the Annual Conference of the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Office March 8, 2018 Today’s Presentation Updates on topics covered in recent IFO analyses:  School property tax  Demographics  Revenue estimates  Pensions / Act 5 2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax Update New Forecast, Including Homestead Property

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently requested data and List of Materials Included Page Information About IFO Background and Recent Publications 1 Summary of IFO Expenditures 4 Economics and Demographics U.S. Economic Trends 5 Pennsylvania Economic Trends 6 Pennsylvania Employment Gains and Losses 7 Pennsylvania Income Sources 8 State

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of the differ by $50 million. 10 Technical factors restrain the FY 2016‐17 General Fund growth rate to 2.0%. 11 Demographic Outlook The 65 and older age cohort will expand at a rate of 2.8% per annum over the next

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

growth rates for the lower income group, and to a lesser extent, the middle income group. To control for changing demographics, the analysis examined two age cohorts. The first cohort is primary householders age 30 to 39 in 2012. The analysis Collett asked about states that have implemented student loan debt forgiveness programs and how much those programs might positively impact demographic trends. Two states currently offer loan forgiveness programs for recent college graduates employed within the state. New York enacted the

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

trends for border counties in states that do and do not raise the minimum wage. Because economic and demographic variables are generally similar in the border counties, the higher minimum wage offers researchers a “natural experiment” that allows them to isolate and average wages for the relevant counties in both states. These data illustrate the similar general economic and demographic conditions in the two sets of border counties, which allows the analysis to isolate the impact of a higher minimum wage. For

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RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf

In October 2021, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release demographic projections that will be incorporated into its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results age group still provides meaningful insights into the impacts of COVID-19. Due to the stable nature of short-term demographic trends, a simple projection for 2020 and 2021 would assume no change in the number of deaths from the 2018

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RB-2017-5.pdf

general caveats that pertain to the analysis are noted. First, the comparisons cannot control for certain state-specific attributes or demographic characteristics. For example, states with significant tourism (e.g., Hawaii) or natural resource industries (e.g., Colorado) or states with relatively low rank for payroll employment (45 th ) because there is very modest growth of the labor force due to demographic trends. Pennsylvania ranks higher for GDP (29 th ) and personal income (37 th ) because retirees and elderly residents receive incomes

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

pension plan was formally established prior to December 31, 1982. Required Data. The act and the regulations list the actuarial, demographic, and financial data that are required to be in the report. The actuarial data demonstrate the calculation of the cost provide information on the financial position of the pension trust fund and the revenues and expenses of the fund. The demographic data provide information on the current number and compensation of active and retired members. Through the issuance of rules and

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

in millions. *FY 2016‐17 Executive Budget, General Fund Financial Statement, p. C1.5. Excludes proposed revenue changes. Impact of Demographics on the Long‐Term Economic and Budget Outlook 10 May 13, 2016 All Demographic Projections from Penn State Data Center. Reflects U.S. Census Estimates for 2015 • Large Wave of Retirements Next Decade • Demographic

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS & THE PA ECONOMY PA State Association of Boroughs Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 MATTHEW KNITTEL, DIRECTOR Independent fiscal office August 8, 2018 The big picture: state demographic trends.  Historical trends. Projections through 2025.  Disclaimer: trends may not translate to all local units. Aging’s impact

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

for the PA Economy PA Council on Aging May 24 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Today’s Presentation I. The Foundation: Demographics.  Baby Boomer retirements.  Life expectancy and migration flows. II. Economic Trends for Seniors.  Seniors working more: ~25% Programs.  Outlook for revenue sources is tepid.  Demand and price effects create imbalance. May 24, 2017 2 I. Demographic Trends  Subtle, yet crucial impact.  Hard to see in a single year.  Determines work force, income sources

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

enrollees have Part D or other prescription coverage. The PACE/PACENET program is income- based and therefore the program enrollee demographics are not directly comparable to the state senior population. However, the adjacent figure compares the program demographics to the general 65+ population to note the similarities and differences. Program cardholders tend to be older than the general

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

18 to FY 2022-23 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania NOVEMBER 2017 Welcome Matthew Knittel | Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Balance Sheet, Demographic and Economic Outlook Mark Ryan | Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Revenue and Expenditure Detail, Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson| The growth +1.3% real GDP growth +1.9% real GDP growth +2.7% inflation +1.4% inflation +2.1% inflation Demographic Outlook Projections from the Pennsylvania State Data Center Adjustments by IFO for 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Three Demographic

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID with income and sales tax? ▪ Tax burden rankings: how does PA compare to border states? February 19, 2021 3 Pennsylvania Demographics February 19, 2021 4 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Annual Growth 2015 2020 2025 2030 15-20 20-

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

 Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics and economy  Labor market still robust | consumers drive growth  Auto loan delinquencies at all time high | mortgage refis data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Demographics Cause Tight Labor Market February 28, 2020 6 Number of Residents (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Population Change

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

49%) proposals are effective or phased-in beginning 1/1/19. Source: FY 2017-18 Executive Budget. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 6 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP 1.3% 1.6% 1 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. PA Economics and Demographics February 28, 2017 7 Annual Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP 1.3% 1.6% 1

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

liability. This funding shortfall may occur for many reasons, including benefit enhancements, unfavorable investment returns, changes in major economic or demographic assumptions or underfunding by the employer. Figure A2 displays the unfunded actuarial accrued liabilities for the Systems between 1980 and member compensation, and can be easily budgeted each year without the added risk of additional contributions due to investment and demographic losses. Forfeitures of non- vested employer contributions with interest from members who terminate employment prior to fully vesting would serve

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

consultation with the system’s consulting actuary, sets the plan’s investment return assumption in addition to other economic and demographic actuarial assumptions. A retirement system’s investment return assumption represents that system’s best estimate of the long-term investment firefighters or the city’s public safety and financial needs. Pennsylvania’s municipal pension laws have not kept pace with demographic and economic changes. A graph at the end of this testimony shows the local share of Pennsylvania municipal and school

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Releases

of our Monthly Economic Update includes links to recent articles and reports that provide insight into state or national economic, demographic, and fiscal trends. Tags: economic , monthly , update Full Report Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook November 15, 2022 | Revenue Estimates The Independent Fiscal Office Other This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused

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SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf

test compares a set of simulations to certified baseline projections to illustrate the impact that changes in policy, economic or demographic variables could have on a pension system. Act 128 requires that SERS conduct three types of analyses based on published or fails to meet the assumed rate of return (6.875% net of fees for years after calendar year 2022). • Demographic Risk - Demographic factors, such as mortality rates and employee salary growth, differ from the baseline. • Contribution Risk - Employers contribute less

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

industries and produces esti- mates for employment and wages for specified occupations by state. Additional detail on hours worked and demographic characteristics are from the Merged Outgoing Rotation Group dataset from the 2018 Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Annual Statistical the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides data on the labor force, employment levels, unemployment rates and various demographic characteristics. Minimum Wage | Page 30 For 2019, the OES dataset for Pennsylvania represents 5.90 million jobs, including secondary jobs

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

Page 12  The Pennsylvania labor market continues to be tight, with relatively low unemployment. Barring a recession, demographic trends (i.e., a contracting working age cohort between the ages of 20 and 64) suggest that will likely continue over the Population Survey (CPS). 26 The CPS provides data on the labor force, employment levels, unemployment rates and various demographic characteristics. The monthly survey includes 60,000 U.S. households and is designed so that state specific observations can be weighted to

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RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf

QCEW). Given the broad coverage, the data source is best used to examine payroll employment trends over time based on demographic characteristics such as age, gender, race and education level. It does not track unemployed individuals who actively seek employment. Table S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 4: Change in Payroll Employment Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Recent and Long-Term Demographic Trends From 2019 to 2022, the state population contracted by an estimated 48,000 residents and the median age increased

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RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf

QCEW). Given the broad coverage, the data source is best used to examine payroll employment trends over time based on demographic characteristics such as age, gender, race and education level. It does not track unemployed individuals who actively seek employment. Table jobs. Excludes self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Recent and Long-Term Demographic Trends From 2019 to 2022, the state population contracted by an estimated 48,000 residents and the median age increased

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PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf

Every January, May and June ▪ Economic trends and forecasts Each November: Five-Year Outlook ▪ General Fund revenues, expenditures, economics and demographics ▪ Long-term structural surplus or deficit for the state Other Duties and Releases ▪ Monthly releases: revenue collections, economic update ▪ Pensions PBB) and Tax Credit reviews ▪ Natural Gas: quarterly production reports, annual impact fee collections January 19, 2022 1 Latest Pennsylvania Demographic Forecast January 19, 2022 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-20 20-

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

growth rates. Values are forecasts for entire year. Pennsylvania Economic Outlook 8.Jun.2016 10 Long‐Term Budget Trends Changing Demographics Impact Longer‐Term Outlook Working Age Population Projected to Decline Wave of Retirements Next Decade All Demographic Projections from the Penn State Data Center; Reflects U.S. Census Estimates for 2015 8.Jun.2016 11 2015 Snapshot

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

elements but the first component is substantially lower due to the implementation of ID.me and other verification efforts. The demographics and income levels of PUA claimants differ considerably compared to traditional UC claimants and the overall employed workforce (i.e hours per week) or were planning to start employment but did not due to COVID. The table above displays the demographic composition of claimants for all programs. The data reflect the frequency of claims made during the year. For ex- ample

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

the prior month. However, the article reports that online holiday sales increased by 14% over the prior year. U.S. Demographic Trends May Limit Job Expansion A December 18 article from the Wall Street Journal notes that the U.S. job market continues to exceed expecta- tions, but demographic trends will likely cause the U.S. to run out of individuals to join the workforce. U.S. popu- lation

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 21, 2021 Today’s Presentation Four Parts  Demographics a contracting labor force  Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to deficit  What has changed? | Why is it worse? Questions taken at end of presentation January 21, 2021 1 Pennsylvania Demographics January 21, 2021 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Annual Growth 2015 2020 2025 2030 15-20 20-

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

15 budget deliberations without the healthy beginning balances that have characterized the last three fiscal years.” The report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. Projections are expenditure growth in the five year projections.  The Pennsylvania economy will expand, but at a moderate pace. Long-term demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth.  The number of working-aged residents between ages 20

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

reviews ▪ Special Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage March 4, 2022 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID with income and sales tax? ▪ Tax burden rankings: how does PA compare to border states? March 4, 2022 3 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update March 4, 2022 4 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-

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About IFO

coordinating forecasts of department expenditures and forecasting the Lottery Fund. Other responsibilities include working on special projects pertaining to education, demographics, minimum wage and other subjects as needed. Jesse Bushman Revenue Analyst II Mr. Bushman joined the IFO in 2016 and forecasting personal income tax revenues and leading tax credit program reviews. Other responsibilities include working on special projects pertaining to demographics, human services, performance-based budgeting and other subjects as needed. Joseph Shockey Revenue Analyst II Mr. Shockey joined the IFO

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TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf

000 firms ▪ Modest State Savings: ~$350 per student that switches to private school ▪ No Published Data: academic outcomes, income and demographics Recommendations ▪ Reduce retention for administrative and other costs to 5-10% from 20% ▪ Revisit early application for repeat donors (effectively excludes new donors) ▪ Require organizations to submit demographic, income and outcome data ▪ Require DCED to publish annual report of all relevant data January 24, 2022 10 CreationDate: 2022-

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

fund scholarships or educational improvement programs. ▪ The statute should be amended to allow for the collection of student performance and demographic data so that program effectiveness can be evaluated. Across states, Pennsylvania has one of the largest tax credits, but collects the year prior to the scholarship award ▪ Whether students denied the ETC scholarship attend the school regardless Without these basic demographic and outcome data, it is not clear if the existence of an excess supply of business contributions that do not

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

women in the workforce. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes national jobs data by gender and other demographic factors. In February 2021, there was a decline of 8.5 million U.S. jobs (-5.4% reduction) relative to or opt for early retirement. Long-term implications will become more clear once sufficient data have been compiled regarding the demographic characteristics of individuals who lost employment (e.g., gender, age, income level) and the reasons that motivate their choice to

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

compare employment trends for border counties in states that do and do not raise the minimum wage. Because economic and demographic conditions are generally similar in the border counties, the higher minimum wage offers researchers a “natural experiment” that allows them employ- ment and average wages for the relevant counties in both states. These data illustrate the similar general economic and demographic conditions in the two sets of border counties. For both sets of counties, popu- lation growth was relatively flat, while

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

Survey (CPS). 17 The CPS provides data on the labor force, em- ployment levels, unemployment rates and various demographic characteristics. The monthly survey includes 60,000 U.S. households and is designed so that state‐specific observations can be weighted to report their hourly wage or weekly salary, occupation, number of hours worked per week, age, sex and other demographic information. Many hourly‐paid workers report compensation that falls below the federal minimum and most are employees who traditionally earn tips, such

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

These conditions are partly driven by a contracting working age cohort between the ages of 20 and 64. Demographics data show that the contraction began in 2012 as the first baby boomers turned 65. Since then, the trend has strengthened and will begin to abate in the middle of the next decade. Barring a recession, these demographic trends and recent migration patterns suggest that the state labor market will remain tight in the near term. That outcome should support

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

Introduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and income trends, and then combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends and levels from 2017 to

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

Introduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends and levels from

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RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf

Introduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends and levels for

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RB-2015-04.pdf

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides data on the labor force, employment levels, unemployment rates and various other demographic and labor force characteristics. The monthly survey includes 60,000 U.S. households and is designed so that state‐speci states. The CPS asks respondents to report their hourly wage, occupation, number of hours worked, age, sex, ethnicity and other demographic information. The survey also asks respondents whether they are compensated on an hourly or non‐hourly (i.e., salary) basis

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

Introduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends and levels for

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

to 2022-23, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Updated year, the forecast incorporates savings based on recent cost containment efforts.  Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

residents can use to assess the fiscal sustainability of current tax and spending policies,” Knittel said. The report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. On a over this period. Other major findings include:  The Pennsylvania economy will continue to expand, but at a lackluster pace. Demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth. There are important downside risks associated with global economic weakness

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

participation rates also climb for 65+.  Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? Decline in working age population. Demographic Takeaways 10.Feb.2017 6 PA Snapshot: 2015 to 2025 10.Feb.2017 7 Age Cohort Number of Residents(000s Discretionary 85% 76% 79% 78% 75% Note: figures in dollar millions. Main elements driving the structural imbalance are unchanged.  Demographic trends affect revenues and expenditures.  Slow tax base erosion and modest revenue growth.  Non-discretionary spending continues to

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 1, 2019 Today’s IFO Presentation  Executive Summary | Crucial Assumptions | Recession Risk  Demographics: a contracting workforce  Economics: modest 2018 gains from TCJA, strong labor market  Revenues and Expenditures: one-time measures policy options, funding shifts and one-time measures to close the gap.  What will legislature enact? Various long-term demographic concerns.  Declining birth rates. Possible contracting labor force. Policymakers should consider recession scenarios.  Surveys: recession more likely than

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

19, 2018 PA Fiscal Update and Outlook County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania November 19, 2018 1 Three Quick Updates  Demographic projections and outlook (3 slides)  Job creation and the PA labor force (3)  FY 2019-20: a difficult Shift to General Fund (State Police) 44 Total 1,616 Note: millions of dollars. Points of Emphasis Various long-term demographic concerns.  Declining birth rates. General aging of the state population.  Possible contraction of the labor force. Large increase

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

These conditions are partly driven by a contracting working age cohort between the ages of 20 and 64. Demographics data show that the con- traction began in 2012 as the oldest baby boomers turned 65. Since then, the trend has strengthened and will begin to abate in the middle of the next decade. Barring a recession, these demographic trends and recent migration patterns suggest that the state labor market will remain tight in the near term. That outcome should support

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

Any proposal that affects tax revenues. Dec.13.2017 4 Today: A (Very) Quick Overview Highlights from Economic & Budget Outlook. ◦ Demographics: rapid aging, domestic out-migration. ◦ Economics: latest data show 2016 weaker than expected. ◦ Short- and long-term budget outlook. ◦ New estimate through November. Looking forward: federal tax reform, property tax reform and General Fund challenges. Dec.13.2017 5 PA Demographics: Large Retirement Wave Age Cohort Number Residents (000s) Gain or Loss (000s) Avg. Annual Growth 2015 2020 2025 2015-20

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

published by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry are relatively comparable to the share of job loss across the demographic characteristics of workers. Workers aged 14 to 24 (28% of job loss, but only 12% of UC claims) are an U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators Explorer, Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. Pennsylvania COVID-19 Job Loss by Demographic Characteristic Age Race 1 Gender Note: Share of Workforce reflects workforce in 2019 Q3. Share of Job Loss reflects 2020

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Lancaster_Chamber_Presentation_ Oct_6_2021.pdf

Demographic and Labor Market Update Lancaster Chamber of Commerce Matthew Knittel, IFO Director October 6, 2021 Pennsylvania Demographics October 6, 2021 1 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change 2010-20 Change 2020-25 2010 2020 2025 Number AAGR Number

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

retirement years.  Dramatic shift in spending towards housing. More home debt. 2 Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office Recent Demographics: 2010 to 2017 PA Residents (000s) Change (000s) Age Group 2010 2017 Number Percent 0 to 19 School 3,173 final. Data for 2017 are estimates and detail is an IFO projection. Jan.25.2018 3 Independent Fiscal Office Future Demographics: 2017 to 2025 PA Residents (000s) Change (000s) Age Group 2017 2025 Number Percent 0 to 19 School 3,010

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

Gardner | Institute for Taxation & Economic Policy  Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office  Pennsylvania demographic, economic and fiscal outlook  Questions for all presenters to be taken at end of session November 14, 2019 2 CPI-U +2.0% No future use of one-time shifts, delays or new funding sources November 14, 2019 5 Demographic Outlook Outlook is unchanged – modest or no growth in state population  2016: +0.0% | 2017: +0.0% | 2018 +0

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Update Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office | December 3, 2019 Number (000s) Change (000s) Average Ann Growth PA Demographic Forecast 2015 2020 2025 2015-20 2020-25 2015-20 2020-25 0 to 19 School Age 3,040 2

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

received her bachelor’s degree in political science and international service from American University. November 15, 2021 2 Key Themes Demographics updated for the Decennial Census ▪ Little change | potential workforce still contracts ▪ COVID: ~30,000 excess deaths in 2020 + 2021 | small recover ▪ But permanent job loss remains ~350k No further COVID variants that warrant mitigation efforts November 15, 2021 4 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update November 15, 2021 5 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

2021-22, will be available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Updated levels, the double-digit annual growth rates are projected to abate.  Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

policies or revised spending levels enacted with the FY 2015-16 budget will alter the projections.” The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through FY 2020-21. Based on assumptions growth over the next decade is constrained by the projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64).  Demographic projections assume an increase of 32.2 percent in the 65+ cohort through 2025. The increase in this cohort will

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Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

one-time costs savings employed in the FY 2014-15 budget contribute significantly to this deficit.” The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through FY 2019-20. Based on assumptions working age population (ages 20-64) and an increase of 2.8 percent per annum in the 65+ cohort. These demographic trends will restrain tax revenues and increase expenditures due to the rise in the service population. Act 120 of 2010

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

home price from Zillow. House Price Index from Federal Housing Finance Agency. Debt data from New York Federal Reserve Board. Demographic Trends Cause Tight Labor Market January 28, 2020 6 Annual Change (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Population released next month PA labor market  Can it continue to expand at moderate pace?  Does tight labor market/demographics affect business expansion decisions? January 28, 2020 19 CreationDate: 2020-01-28 20:43:40 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® 2016 ModDate

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

s fiscal condition for the current year and the succeeding five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of the year-to-date through January. • Looking forward, the U.S. forecast calls for very modest growth. PA has an older demographic profile than the U.S. average, and the Commonwealth may not match national growth rates. Motor Vehicle Sales Tax Collections

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

resi- dents when they earn income rather than when they spend income (i.e., in retirement) relieves the tax Snapshot: Demographics and the Impact on State Revenues Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Report 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Demographic Shift: Share of PA Population >65 and < 20 <20 >65 Author: Karen Maynard CreationDate: 2012-09-28 14:28:18

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

date; PART III DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS -18- 2) the Joint State Government Commission to be di- rected to compile pertinent demographic data on active volunteer firefighters obtained from the admin- istrative agency of the program, as well as other credible sources a report no later than one year before the program’s automatic termination date that con- tains both the compiled demographic data and the Commission’s analysis of the effectiveness of the program in increasing the number of active volunteer firefighters

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

investments are limited to 2 A distressed area is an area that exhibits a high incidence of one or more demographic factors such as consistent unemployment, school dropout and public assistance dependency. Areas deemed distressed for NAP Tax Credit pur- poses

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

to foster innovation at an accelerated rate.  The KIZ Tax Credit could also enhance economic growth through demographic effects. This could occur if the credit enables retention of recent college graduates who might have otherwise left the state in search

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

addition to statewide bag consumption, the survey asked about consumer attitudes towards a retail bag fee and collected demographic data such as household size, income level and county of residence. LWPB Demand When combined with other research, the statewide survey suggests

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SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf

FY 22-23, forecasted by the IFO thereafter. Table 1: School District Property Tax Forecast INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 3 Demographic and Geographic Trends Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) and statewide property

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

current year, after demonstrating a long-term annual decline (-0.9%) due to challenges of attracting new players and the demographics of existing players. Multistate Lotto games, which rely heavily on large jack- pots to drive sales, benefited from an increase

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

over the same period (-0.5 percent per annum) related to challenges in attracting new players and the demographics of existing players. The table also demonstrates the volatility of multistate lotto sales due to the heavy reliance on large jackpots to

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RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf

U.S. Census data were between age 65 to 79. Age Group Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau. Demographics data from U.S. Census and IFO projections (2021). Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting Employment? Independent Fiscal Office | Research

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RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf

age group still provides meaningful insights into the impacts of COVID-19. Due to the stable nature of short-term demographic trends, a simple projection for 2020 and 2021 would assume no change in the number of deaths from the 2018

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Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf

Street or Strawberry Square) Agenda: A detailed discussion by IFO staff on the Commonwealth’s structural imbalance and the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the expenditures and revenues over the next five years. Guest Presenter: Daniel White, Senior

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

to 2023-24, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2023-24. Updated

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

be Released Soon. Five-Year Outlook Report – November 15. o Projections for FY 2013-14 to FY 2018-19. o Demographics, Economics, Expenditures, Revenues. o Special Reports. o Last Year: Pensions and Affordable Care Act. 24 . Sept . 2013 23 Property Tax

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/) Demographics by State 1990-2012 Year/ Total Population Share of Population Annual Growth Rate Age Group Delaware Maryland New Jersey New

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Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf

members would assume additional investment risk.  There are other forms of risk such as: asset/liability mismatch, longevity and demographic, interest rate, and contribution risks. Implemented using a sensitivity analysis.  Examined the impact of one percentage point and two

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

reflect non-Hispanic populations, for example white reflects persons that are white, non-Hispanic. Pennsylvania state population data reflect the demographic characteristics of the entire state of Pennsylvania in 2014 and 2019, including jurisdictions that do not rely on PSP coverage

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

DOT 2020-21 0 1 0 PennDOT Diverse Workforce Recruiting: Targeted Recruitment Activity 12: Administration (Addendum) | Page 59 diversity and demographic information is being phased out, per new rules issued by the Office of Admin- istration Equal Employment Opportunity Office (EEOO

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

manages the Client Information System (CIS), which tracks all individuals enrolled in DHS benefit programs and includes relevant demographic information on clients. The primary goals and outcomes of this activity are as follows:  Allow easy access for individuals to apply

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

revenues by twice that amount. 3 See “Return on Investment for VISIT FLORIDA,” Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research, (January 2018) and “Validation of Travel Michigan’s Rate of Return on Advertising Estimating System – A Case Study Approach,” Dr. Donald

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

This measure serves as both a cost indicator as well as an indicator of the general health and demographics of the inmate population. It represents the number of clinic visits for conditions such as diabetes and hypertension. Prisoners with chronic conditions

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

physical location ▪ Entrepreneurial : provide seed capital and mentoring to start-ups ▪ Incubation : provide on-going support up to 7 years ▪ Demographic : reduce “brain drain”? January 23, 2020 10 KIZ Tax Credit Great potential | critical need for more and better data ▪ No

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

share of income (+3.0%) devoted to mortgage/rent and property tax expenses over the past decade. 19.May.2017 Demographic Challenges 24 19.May.2017 Mortgage Debt by Age Group Home Mortgage Credit-Auto-Student Age Dollar Dollar Percent Dollar

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

injects ~$56 billion into PA economy  Causes faster wage growth and higher inflation  Also: a contracting working age demographic | exits from labor force do not return  Lots of early retirements (i.e., higher wage workers) depresses 2020 wage

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

over the same period (-0.5 percent per annum) related to challenges in attracting new players and the demographics of existing players. The table also demonstrates the volatility of multistate lotto sales due to the heavy reliance on large jackpots to

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Newsstand_2018_May.pdf

than-anticipated revenues for wage, sales, business, property, and real estate transfer taxes. The report also discusses recent social and demographic trends for the city. Pennsylvania 4th Quarter GDP for 2017 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released 4 th

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

Tax burden falls on smaller cohort. Long-Term: 10+ Years.  Deaths exceed births.  Heavily dependent on international migration. Demographics: Short- and Long-Term Issues Past, Present and Future Trends Source: Pennsylvania State Data Center with adjustments by the IFO

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

years 2023-2025 ▪ 6.99% for tax year 2026 | 5.99% for tax year 2027 Overall Net Tax Cut Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update March 31, 2022 9 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf

rates since state data have been published (1976). The very tight labor market, low labor force participation rate and contracting demographics will continue to apply upward pressure on wage growth and economy wide inflation. Monthly Economic Update October 2022 Pre-COVID

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf

lows since state level data have been published (1976). The tight labor market, low labor force participation rate and contracting demographics will continue to apply upward pressure on wage growth and economy-wide inflation. Monthly Economic Update November 2022 Pre-COVID

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MER-2015-03.pdf

Street Journal, April 2, 2015. 2. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey. 3. Drew, Rachel Bogardus, “Effect of Changing Demographics On Young Adult Homeownership Rates,” Harvard University (2015). 4. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

the current year, reversing a long-term annual trend decline (-0.9%) due to challenges attracting new players and the demographics of existing players. Multistate Lotto games, which rely heavily on large jackpots to drive sales, benefited from an increase in

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

lower royalty payments. Technical factors work in same direction.  Income growth does not translate into spending growth.  Recent demographic trends do not reverse. • Net out migration continues. • Lack of population growth.  Data suggest material income shifting from 2016

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

not as bad as anticipated | stimulus ▪ SAWW at record high | elevated by 2021 wage growth November 16, 2021 1 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update November 16, 2021 2 Age Cohort Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Ann. Growth 2010 2020 2030 10-

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of the

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IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf

to 2024-25, is available for download on the office website (www.ifo.state.pa.us). The report evaluates the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2024-25 and

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House_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf

recovery by race. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Workforce Indicators reports quarterly employment figures by state and various demographic characteristics. The attached table summarizes the latest data for Pennsylvania employment by race and gender. The data show that the

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

net new jobs created occurred in three low-wage sectors: food service, social assistance and home healthcare. Due to flat demographic growth, the IFO expects that the state unemployment rate will remain low and service industry jobs will comprise the majority

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf

present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Phillip Swagel, Director CBO Federal Budget and Economic Update Following

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

s fiscal condition for the current year and the succeeding five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of the

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Announcement_2021.pdf

present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. The presentation will examine various issues that impact the economic

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

on Pennsylvania’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, originally released on December 9 th , details the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures and revenues over the next five fiscal years. The update

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2019-Pub-2.pdf

from its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will also be discussed. Katherine Loughead, Tax Foundation: Modernizing Pennsylvania's Tax Code as

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2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Auditorium Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street, Harrisburg Agenda: A detailed discussion by IFO staff on the economic, demographic and fiscal trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s expenditures and revenues over the next five fiscal years. Guest Presenter

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

contributions required to be made to a defined benefit plan by participating public employers are linked to a number of demographic and economic assumptions. Chief among these is the investment return assumption. If the return on investments is greater than anticipated

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

actuarial assumptions include an interest rate of 5.0% per year and payroll growth of 3.3% per year. The demographic assumptions for compensation increases, withdrawal, retirement, disability, and mortality are those used for the December 31, 2004, actuarial valuation of

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2001_hr266.pdf

of comparative benefits under the 30 current DB plans versus possible DC plans and options using 20010H0266R2371 - 3 - 1 various demographic and financial scenarios to show the 2 positive and negative impact of each plan option on employers 3 and employees

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

service for retirees with career length service and scheduling periodic reviews of the minimum pension based on both the system demographics and the change in the standard of living. Although the benefit provisions of PSERS prescribe a minimum annual benefit equal

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