Inflation's Impact on the Pennsylvania EconomyOn June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget. Tags: economy, inflation, pennsylvania |
Impact of COVID-19 on the State EconomyDirector Matthew Knittel gave a brief presentation to the Senate Majority Policy Committee on the impact of COVID-19 on the state economy. Tags: coronavirus, economy, presentation |
2024 Budget Hearing MaterialsThe Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the Senate Appropriations Committee ahead of its budget hearing. The packet includes data on the state budget, revenue proposals, economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. 02/20/2024 |
November 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 11/29/2023 |
October 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 10/23/2023 |
2023 Demographic OutlookSection 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation of this statute. The IFO will release the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2023-24 to 2028-29 in November 2023. 10/19/2023 |
September 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 09/14/2023 |
August 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 08/23/2023 |
July 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 07/12/2023 |
June 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 06/26/2023 |
May 2023 Monthly Economic UpdateThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 05/23/2023 |
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATEThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/25/2023 |
Expiration of the Enhanced FMAPThe IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after. The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout. 04/06/2023 |
APRIL 2023 MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATEThe Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. 04/04/2023 |
Budget Hearing Materials 2023The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the Senate Appropriations Committee ahead of its budget hearing. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. 03/16/2023 |
Emergency Rental Assistance EndsThe IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state. 03/06/2023 |
Post-Pandemic Child Care CliffThe IFO posted a second research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the impact that nearly $820 million in federal support had on the child care industry and its employees, and the funding cliff the industry will encounter in the near future. 02/23/2023 |
SNAP Emergency Allotments End in FebruaryThe IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief quantifies the impact from the end of SNAP emergency allotments in February 2023. This research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child. 01/27/2023 |
2022 Demographic OutlookSection 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28. 10/05/2022 |
Inflation's Impact on the Pennsylvania economyOn June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget. 06/07/2022 |
Budget Hearing Materials 2022The Independent Fiscal Office submitted materials to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees ahead of its budget hearings. The packet includes data on the state economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. 02/22/2022 |
2021 Demographic OutlookSection 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2021-22 to 2026-27. 11/15/2021 |
Economic Impact of Federal StimulusThis research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. 05/10/2021 |
Impact of COVID-19 on the State economyDirector Matthew Knittel gave a brief presentation to the Senate Majority Policy Committee on the impact of COVID-19 on the state economy. 04/13/2021 |
Demographic OutlookSection 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 09/08/2020 |
Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy. 04/08/2020 |
PA economy League PresentationIn partnership with the Pennsylvania economy League, Director Matthew Knittel and Deputy Director Brenda Warburton will make multiple presentations on raising the state minimum wage to $12.00 per hour. The presentation examines the proposed minimum wage’s impact on employment, worker incomes, prices and state spending. 05/01/2019 |
Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update- August 2018In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy. 08/24/2018 |
Demographic Trends and the PA economyDirector Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the PA State Association of Boroughs on demographic trends and the PA economy. 08/08/2018 |
Aging and the Pennsylvania economyDirector Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the Task Force on Private Sector Retirement Security on the implications of aging for the Pennsylvania economy. 01/25/2018 |
Implications of Aging for the PA economyDirector Matt Knittel gave a presentation on May 24th to the PA Council on Aging regarding the implications of an aging population for Pennsylvania’s economy. An appendix slide appears at the end of the PowerPoint to include certain data requested during the presentation. 05/24/2017 |
An Overview of School District Property Tax ReformThroughout May, Director Matt Knittel and Deputy Director Mark Ryan will make five presentations on the potential implications of school district property tax reform. The events are sponsored by the Pennsylvania economy League and will take place at the various locations listed below. Click the following links for additional details: READING Thursday May 4th 7:30-9:00am WILLIAMSPORT Friday May 5th 12:00-1:30pm YORK Thursday May 11th 12:00-1:30pm WILKES-BARRE Friday May 12th 12:00-1:30pm LEHIGH VALLEY Friday May 19th 12:00-1:30pm 05/04/2017 |
Pennsylvania Gaming TrendsThis research brief gives a historical overview of gaming trends and revenues in Pennsylvania. This includes the role of gaming in the state economy as well as comparisons to other states. 02/28/2015 |
Pennsylvania Lottery: Historical Data and Interstate ComparisonsDemographic projections suggest that demand for programs and services funded by lottery revenues will grow at a rate that exceeds the expansion of the Pennsylvania economy. Therefore, an important issue for policymakers is whether lottery revenues can maintain recent growth rates so they will be sufficient to meet those demands. This report provides data to assist policymakers in those deliberations. 01/30/2014 |
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdfDepartment of Community and Economic Development (DCED) is to foster opportunities for businesses and communities to succeed in the global economy and to promote Pennsylvania’s economic development goals. DCED is actively engaged in ongoing efforts to promote exports of Pennsylvania systems invest between 15 and 23 percent of their portfolio in companies that do business in terrorist-sponsoring states. 4 Among the report’s other important findings: ! 39 of the Top 100 pension systems were found to be invested in more Hits: 100 |
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdfthe fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, we submit this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and expected to prevail, such as overall economic growth. For example, we would expect sales tax revenues to increase as the economy expands, but we would also expect that the relative growth rate of sales tax revenues might vary based on the Hits: 22 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdfthe fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth rate cut and new/expanded tax credits enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. During that time, the state economy continues to partially revert to pre-COVID patterns as labor force participation rates increase and asset markets resume long-term Hits: 22 |
index.cfmto the Senate Appropriations Committee ahead of its budget hearing. The packet includes data on the state budget, revenue proposals, economy, revenues, demographics and other miscellaneous topics. ... (Full Report) 2024 Wage Contracts Summary Table Wage Contracts February 16, 2024 This table Economic Update November 29, 2023 The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. ... (Full Report) Act 1 Index Reaches New High Property Tax November 28, 2023 The Act 1 index limits the annual Hits: 20 |
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdfBusiness and Workforce Assistance .....................................................................15 Activity 3: Site Development ..............................................................................................19 Activity 4: Local Infrastructure ...........................................................................................21 Activity 5: Innovation Economy and Investments .................................................................25 Activity 6: Tourism Attraction and Development ...................................................................29 Activity 7: International Trade and Investment ....................................................................33 Activity 8: Local Government Operational Development……………………………………….. Provide funds for private sector development 4 Local Infrastructure……………………………………. Provide funds for community infrastructure projects 5 Innovation Economy and Investments………. Support and grow technology-based companies 6 Tourism Attraction and Development…………….Market and motivate travel to the Commonwealth 7 International Hits: 19 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdfthe fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO sub- mits this report to the residents of the General Fund tax revenues will increase at an average rate of 3.3% per annum. During that time, the state economy partially reverts to pre-COVID patterns as consumers shift spending towards ser- vices, labor force participation rates increase, and asset Hits: 18 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdfcondition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and members use tax transfer that begins in FY 2022-23 is excluded. The forecast assumes that the Pennsyl- vania economy operates at its long-term potential and a recession does not occur. For FY 2020-21, expenditures are projected to increase by Hits: 18 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfof Stephen Herzenberg, Ph.D., Executive Director, Keystone Research Center. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Testimony of Brian K. Jensen, Ph.D., Executive Director, PA Economy League of Greater Pittsburgh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Testimony of Richard C. Dreyfuss, Business Consultant and Actuary, Senior Fellow, The Commonwealth Foundation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Testimony of b. A more conservative approach could involve the consolidation of healthcare programs under a single healthcare trust fund. The resulting economies of scale would provide significant savings. A 2004 report by the Legislative Budget and Finance Committee addressed this very issue Hits: 14 |
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdfof Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt 6 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Income Tax – Withholding 9 Personal Income Tax – Nonwithholding 10 Corporate Net Income Tax 11 Realty Transfer Tax 12 The Pennsylvania Economy and Revenues - Key Forecast Risks 13 Suggested Reading 14 1 Independent Fiscal Office - Overview Background The office was created by Hits: 14 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdfdue to COVID-19. Therefore, the estimate reflects the revenue impact that could be anticipated when the state economy operates close to full capacity. This assumption also facilitates a comparison to the estimates published in the Executive Budget released in February S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 1.3 Average Annual Growth Rate of Corporate Tax Revenues and State Economies Enacted Combined Reporting Note: See footnote 7 for a description of the growth rate computation. 1 Data through FY 2016-17 are Hits: 11 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfthe fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth used to project most General Fund revenue sources. The convention used for this five-year outlook assumes that the Pennsylvania economy reverts to long-term, historical growth rates that are also motivated by broad, demographic trends. The economic projections are not Hits: 11 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfthe fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of that obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth average rate of 3.6 percent per annum. Following a two-year recovery period, the forecast assumes that the Pennsylvania economy operates at its long-term potential, energy prices and interest rates do not increase dramatically and a recession does not Hits: 11 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdfto an increase of approximately 4% by TY 2010. In 2021, Maryland updated this estimate to reflect changes in the economy and corporate income tax revenues and estimated an 8% increase in fiscal year CNIT collections due to the adoption of General Fund revenues would increase by $60 million once all impacts of the higher wage rever- berate through the state economy. CY 2022 Workers Affected (000s) Directly affected (earn <$12/hr) 765 Indirectly affected (earn $12-$15/hr) 696 Employment reduction Hits: 10 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdfand government) will be roughly $570 billion. If all higher wage costs were passed forward to consumer purchases, economy-wide price levels would increase by roughly 0.6 percent ($3.5 / $570 billion) if the same mix and quantity of goods analysis assumes that only 65 percent of the cost would be passed forward in higher prices, so the economy-wide price level would increase by 0.4 percent. Spending on other goods and services throughout the state economy would fall Hits: 10 |
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdfthe impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the economic impact due to the transfer of funds directly to individuals by income group. For this Program (SNAP). The analysis concludes with a limited discussion regarding whether the infusion of significant federal monies into the state economy, when combined with temporary labor market conditions attributable to the pandemic, is conducive to raising the state minimum wage from Hits: 10 |
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdfranking (2nd) due to other attributes of the tax system that affect revenues, as well as attributes of the state economy. It is important to note several caveats regarding the two state comparison metrics. First, the relative level of corporate profits will vary across state economies simply due to different levels of pass-through versus corporate business activity. Second, the composition of industries will also vary Hits: 10 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdfto testify before you today. For my opening remarks, I would like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent economic indicators provide different perspectives on the state and national economies. Some national indicators suggest an increasing risk of recession. Those indicators include: (1) an S&P 500 Index that has Hits: 10 |
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfessentially compete for a larger portion of an industry that expands at a similar pace as the national economy. If one state realizes strong employment gains, other states will generally record losses. For most states that record initial employment gains due for many industries. 13 GDP represents the final value of all goods and services produced in the state economy during the calendar year. It includes compensation paid to or earned by all individuals who supply labor to produce goods and services Hits: 9 |
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdfincreases at an average rate of 2.2 percent per annum. Real GSP measures the total output of the Pennsylvania economy, excluding any inflationary gains due to rising prices. Regional (PA-NY-NJ) real GSP increases at a slightly slower impact from retiring baby boomers. The analysis uses regional real GSP growth to reflect the general expansion of the regional economy. Demographic variables use the entire population of the state, as opposed to counties that are contiguous or adjacent to the Hits: 9 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdfPennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus and first death due to COVID-19. Since that time, the state economy shed 1.1 million jobs and then recouped roughly three-fifths of the loss. The federal government enacted multiple substantial relief packages that will inject nearly $160 billion of federal revenues into the state economy over several years. As of May 20, 5.62 million state residents had received at least one dose of vaccine Hits: 8 |
NAP-2018-03.pdfof $18 million in NAP tax credits and corresponding private contributions/investments generates additional impacts as it ripples through the economy. For example, as a result of the increased direct spending, neighborhood organizations purchase goods and services from businesses in other yet another round of effects (induced spending). A simplified way to measure the impacts of direct spending on the state economy is through the use of Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. RIMS II multipliers provide an estimate of Hits: 8 |
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdfPennsylvania reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus and first death due to COVID-19. Since that time, the state economy shed 1.1 million jobs and then recouped roughly three-fifths of the loss. The federal government enacted multiple substantial relief packages that will inject nearly $160 billion of federal revenues into the state economy over several years. As of June 21, 6.18 million state residents had received at least one dose of vaccine Hits: 8 |
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdfthe current year, and modest gains for next year. Table 1.3 displays the latest quarterly data for the state economy and the year-over-year (YOY) growth rate or change. (An exception is Real GDP, which is the quarterly annualized to the COVID-19 public health emergency. During the emergency, numerous federal programs injected nearly $200 billion into the state economy, which had a dramatic impact on General Fund revenues. Table 1.5 displays four-year cumulative growth rates for economic Hits: 7 |
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdfthe current year, but a modest contraction next year. Table 1.3 displays the latest quarterly data for the state economy and the year-over-year (YOY) growth rate or change. (An exception is Real GDP, which is the quarterly annualized to the COVID-19 public health emergency. During the emergency, numerous federal programs injected nearly $200 billion into the state economy, which had a dramatic impact on General Fund revenues. Table 1.5 displays four-year cumulative growth rates for economic Hits: 7 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfbolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of Hits: 7 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfbolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of Hits: 7 |
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdfoperations that can have high economic multiplier effects because the goods or services are sold outside the state economy, (3) social, synergistic and agglomeration benefits and (4) a potential reduction of “brain drain” or the departure of new college graduates to 20 25 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 R&D GDP economy more R&D intensive economy less R&D intensive US trendline Section 3: State Comparison | Page 18 For 2008, there were 387 Hits: 6 |
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdfbe measured by determining the amount of direct capital investment incentivized and calculating the impact on the state economy. The KIZ Tax Credit generates additional impacts because the program incubates qualified high-tech firms and requires that they locate or cluster around colleges and universities facilitates the exchange of ideas and increases innovation, which can further stimulate the state economy. This analysis examines these and other issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania KIZ Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes Hits: 6 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfchange to one link in the supply chain will ripple through all connected parties and the larger statewide economy. The figure below outlines the supply chain for plastic retail bags. The economic impact on stakeholders from certain regulations will be discussed drive the direct economic impacts to retailers and manufacturers which then reverberates through other sectors of the state economy. Pennsylvania consumers are also the stake- holders that will largely bear the economic costs or benefits of any regulation. National Retail Bag Hits: 6 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdfclosures. Overall, the IFO forecast assumes a relatively quick recovery from the significant contraction imposed on the state economy in 2020 Q2 due to mitigation efforts. For Q3 and Q4, the state recovery ramps up and coincides with business reopenings. In downturn for Pennsylvania would be least severe across all 50 states due to the composition of the state economy and flat income tax structure. See https://www.taxadmin.org/assets/docs/econ-webinar/StressTesting-States_040920.pdf. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Hits: 6 |
RB-2017-5.pdfis as follows: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The value of all final goods and services produced by the state economy. It measures total economic output and can be used to evaluate the rate at which a state economy expands or contracts. Personal Income The sum of all sources of income such as wages, business income, interest, dividends Hits: 6 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf3 Overall, the IFO forecast assumes a relatively quick recovery from the significant contraction imposed on the state economy in 2020 Q2 due to mitigation efforts. For Q3 and Q4, the state recovery ramps up and coincides with business reopenings. In downturn for Pennsylvania would be least severe across all 50 states due to the composition of the state economy and flat income tax structure. See https://www.taxadmin.org/assets/docs/econ-webinar/StressTesting-States_040920.pdf. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Hits: 6 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdfCOVID Growth November 15, 2022 12 US Corporate Domestic Profits record levels S&P 500 Index through Nov 11 PA Economy Nominal GDP real and inflation growth PA Home Values growth decelerating quickly 0.90 1.10 1.30 1.50 1.70 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 +47% +24% +53% 2018 Q1 = 1.00 +49% +67% pre-COVID economy Tax Revenues Surge During COVID November 15, 2022 13 18-19 to Share of GDP 21-22 18-19 21- Hits: 6 |
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdfcondition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the Commonwealth and condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Hits: 6 |
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf2014 Table of Contents Independent Fiscal Office Overview 1 IFO Reports and Analyses 2 Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 Consumer Debt 7 General Fund Revenues Sales and duties, the IFO seeks to work with the majority and minority chairs of the Appropriations Committees to analyze the state economy and revenues. The deadlines for budget-related duties are as follows: November 15 Prepare an assessment of the state’s Hits: 6 |
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdfoffered by states, there is a dearth of research that examines the impact of live concerts on state and local economies. The text that follows provides a summary of two recent reports on similar state tax credit programs. Economic and Fiscal IMPLAN model. IMPLAN is an economic input-output model that captures the interrelationships between individual sectors of state and local economies. It incorporates the most recent data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on supply chains and economic Hits: 5 |
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdfareDecember figures in italics are effective rates for cards w/ balance 16.2% 16.7% 16.0% 20.4% PA Economy vs Financials: Pre vs Post-COVID Growth January 24, 2023 11 US Corporate Domestic Profits record levels S&P 500 Index PA Economy Nominal GDP real and inflation growth PA Home Values but growth decelerating quickly 0.90 1.10 1.30 1 Hits: 5 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf1.1 Pennsylvania Economic Forecasts Economic Outlook | Page 2 Forecasters are currently assessing various potential outcomes for the U.S. economy over the next two years due to highly unusual economic conditions and the impact of anticipated Fed policy actions. Most slow significantly (housing). For CY 2022 and CY 2023, most growth is inflationary, and real economic growth for the Pennsylvania economy ranges from 0.5% to 1.1%, notably slower than its recent historical average of 1.6% for non-recession Hits: 5 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdfincreases by 7.0% (2022) and 4.5% (2023). Forecasters are currently assessing various potential outcomes for the U.S. economy over the next two years due to highly unusual economic conditions and the impact of anticipated Fed policy actions. Most slow significantly (housing). For CY 2022 and CY 2023, most growth is inflationary, and real economic growth for the Pennsylvania economy ranges from 0.9% to 1.4%, notably lower than its recent historical average of 1.6% for non-recession Hits: 5 |
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdfRaising the Minimum Wage to $12.00 Presentation for the PA Economy League Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office May 1, 2019 The Pennsylvania Labor Market May 1, 2019 1 Annual Growth Sides Raise Valid Points Raised by Advocates: Alleviates poverty. Greater job satisfaction. Less turnover. Expands the economy and generates tax revenues. Reduces expenditures on healthcare programs (Medicaid). Raised by Opponents: They are "starter" wages paid Hits: 5 |
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdfImplications of Aging for the PA Economy PA Council on Aging May 24 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Today’s Presentation I. The Foundation: Demographics. Baby Boomer costs are a larger share of spending. Mortgage debt increases significantly. May 24, 2017 10 U.S. and PA Economies Slowing -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6 Hits: 5 |
MTR-2016-06.pdfand International Monetary Fund reduced their 2016 outlooks for global and U.S. economic growth. Despite these trends, Pennsylvania’s economy remains relatively healthy; however, the release of state economic data typically lags national sources. One timely indicator of the state economy is employment growth, which remains solid. Based on data from the first five months of the year, the state is Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdfGains Moderate; New UI Claims Remain Low The latest poll of economic forecasters shows that one-half project the US economy will enter into a recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdfyear. For the next several months, this economic update will use state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy is heading towards recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and Payroll Jobs. The change from month-to-month in total payroll employment (excludes self- employed). Prior to COVID, the state economy averaged a net gain of roughly 5,000 payroll jobs per month. That monthly average was easily surpassed in recent Hits: 5 |
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdftax revenues, and nearly all of that impact should manifest itself in the final payments over the coming months. Pennsylvania Economy The state economy seems to be in a good position, with the latest Philadelphia CPI-U reading running low (0.8% in December Hits: 5 |
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf1 Inflation’s Impact on the Pennsylvania Economy, Budget and Pensions House Majority Policy Committee Hearing on Inflation June 8, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Good revenues in FY 2021-22 relative to (1) FY 2018-19 (latest pre-pandemic year) and (2) the overall state economy. • Revenue sources tied to business profits or stock markets (i.e, dividends and capital gains) are shaded red and recorded Hits: 5 |
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office January 31, 2012 How Will the Proposed Extension of the Payroll Tax Cut Impact the PA Economy and Tax Revenues? Director’s Note: The following text discusses the possible economic impact from a policy under consideration by points.) ANALYSIS It is relatively straightforward to project the general impact of the proposed tax cut extension on the Pennsylvania economy and tax revenues. Data from the Social Security Administration show that in 2008, Pennsylvania residents and businesses remitted $29.2 Hits: 4 |
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdfkey findings from other state studies. Section 4 contains a discussion of the impact of the program on the state economy. Section 5 concludes with the tax credit plan, as required by Act 48. A complete list of reports, studies and data to illustrate how the tax credit shifts spending to the education sector from all other sectors of the state economy. The analysis does not include the impact of innovative educational programs, which provides direct funding as opposed to scholarships. Table Hits: 4 |
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdfthere is a dearth of research that examines the specific impact of the video game industry on state and local economies. The text that follows provides a summary of two recent video game industry reports. These reports are reviewed to provide credit increases total output or sales by $2.64 in the state, as the original spending moves through the state economy and is respent. The original $1.00 is referred to as direct spending and the $1.64 is referred to Hits: 4 |
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdfguidelines/?wpdmdl=86209. 3 Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and social justice issues on the Pennsylvania economy, beginning with FY 2020-21, DCED guidelines note that priority will be given to projects that address critical issues related Other State Studies Despite an extensive search for relevant studies regarding the impact of NAP-type tax credits on local economies, this analysis identified only two relevant studies. Both studies noted significant social impacts (i.e., positive externalities or spillovers) that Hits: 4 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdfInitial Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22 Independent Fiscal Office May 26, 2021 Key Issues and Questions Economy overperforms due to massive federal transfers ▪ Nearly $160 billion of federal monies injected into state Four key questions ▪ What happens September 4 | dramatic impact: $500 per week to no income Likely jobs not available for great majority when benefits expire ▪ Economy operating at higher level of productivity | new spend patterns ▪ Tradeoff: fewer jobs but higher wages May 26, 2021 12 FY Hits: 4 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdfproprie- tors) and corporations. 30 Initially, this income transfer does not change the real size of the state economy, but alters relative prices and the income flows to workers and busi- ness owners. Having identified the source and size of the out of the state. Revenue Implications from Initial Income Transfer Assuming that the real size of the Pennsylvania economy does not change and focusing solely on the transfer of income to lower-income workers, the following factors would impact General Fund Hits: 4 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdfreopen) June 5 All counties in yellow status End of June Most counties in green status (assumption) COVID-19 Moves Economy into Recession May 26, 2020 3 COVID-19 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 2.6% 2.3% -6.2% and Use Tax Notes Sales tax holds up well despite massive job loss Injection of federal monies to state economy Evidence that consumers are shifting spending patterns No dining out | more home improvement, internet shopping, fast food May Hits: 4 |
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdfrepayments. 7 The IMPLAN model reduces disposable income for households in each group and simulates the impact on the state economy based on consumer spending patterns, supply chain relationships, applicable taxes and leakages from the state economy. The fully-phased in annual economic impact results are as follows: ▪ Employment falls by 35,100. This figure includes full- Hits: 4 |
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdfPBC Policy Roundtable June 12, 2014 Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office How Demographics Impact the Pennsylvania Economy Demographic Outlook o General Trends: past decade and next two. o Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others. o Very long 20 yr mortgage. o Shock from housing bust? o May increase monthly payment by $200-$400. o Temporary hit to economy. But, longer-term benefit. Impact on potential (Gen Y) and current (Gen X) homeowners. 12.June.2014 19 Trend Hits: 4 |
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf40.7 years). Surge in Retirements. Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for 65+. Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? Decline in working age population. Demographic Takeaways 10.Feb.2017 6 PA Snapshot: 2015 to Note: dollar amounts in millions. IFO estimate based on the June 2016 forecast. 10.Feb.2017 16 CNIT Growth Underperforms Economy Annual Growth Rates: Corporate Net Income (CNIT) and PA Nominal GDP -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Hits: 4 |
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdfEconomic and Budget Outlook DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS & THE PA ECONOMY PA State Association of Boroughs Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 MATTHEW KNITTEL, DIRECTOR Independent fiscal office August 8, 2018 trends. Projections through 2025. Disclaimer: trends may not translate to all local units. Aging’s impact on the state economy. Economic growth. Job Creation. Spending patterns. Service sector jobs. Slower growth. Housing pressures. Transition to local unit trends Hits: 4 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdfJune 5 All counties in yellow status End of June All counties in green status (except Lebanon) COVID-19 Moves Economy into Recession June 22, 2020 3 COVID-19 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 2.6% 2.3% -5.6% and Use Tax Notes Sales tax holds up well despite massive job loss Injection of federal monies to state economy Evidence that consumers are shifting spending patterns No dining out | more home improvement, internet shopping, fast food May Hits: 4 |
novak ppt.pdfEmpty or Half Full? • Increased economic activity equals tax revenue increases if and only if the tax system matches the economy. • Government sector debts suggest further employment and spending cuts Gross Domestic Product Pennsylvania * 4-quarter growth rates in real terms national data – Data are more widely available than regional data – Sources are trusted (MA, Global Insight, Moody’s) • Beware: National economy is composed of many smaller different economies. Risks are downward facing • Housing • Unemployment • Shrinking government sector Advantage Seen but Unrealized Hits: 4 |
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.3% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% PA Economy 3.4% Note: Tax revenue excludes non-tax, cigarette and CSFT. PA Economy is average annual growth rate of nominal GDP. Corp Net Income PIT Non-Wage Sales- Motor Tax Revenue PIT Wages Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdfpercentage points from the month prior. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a modest decline in job openings. If monthly payroll job gains continue, then that would be a strong indicator that the economy has likely not entered into recession. The same is true for job openings. If the level remains relatively close to Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdfeconomic recession within the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a employment and additional job openings. If monthly payroll job gains continue, then that would be a strong indicator that the economy has likely not entered into recession. The same is true for job openings. The Pennsylvania labor market remains extraordinarily tight Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdfeconomic recession within the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a modest increase in job openings. If monthly payroll job gains continue, then that would be a strong indicator that the economy has likely not entered into recession. The same is true for job openings. The Pennsylvania labor market remains historically tight Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdfmild recession during the next year. This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy might enter into recession. Labor market data are useful because they are leading economic indicators published on a regular and change in payroll jobs) continues, even at a moderate pace, then that would be a reliable indicator that the state economy has likely not entered into recession. (The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in Hits: 4 |
MER-2014-02.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest 5.6% 5.5% February 2014 Monthly Economic Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Snapshot: Consumption and the Economy In recent testimony, newly appointed Federal Re‐ serve Chair Janet Yellen informed Congress that the economy has shown unexpected signs Hits: 4 |
jackson ppt.pdfmay be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. • Amid global storm clouds, the US economy will grow at a modest pace. • Business equipment investment and consumer durables, supported by replacement demand, are driving near-term crisis is the biggest threat to growth; we see a 30% risk of another US recession in 2012. The US Economy Keeps Growing 2 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any Hits: 4 |
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdfthree impacts is referred to as the multiplier effect, as the original direct spending reverberates through the local and state economies and $1 of new spending yields a final economic impact that exceeds $1. Highlights from the IMPLAN analysis include: • Total of $4.7 million. This reflects the noted indirect and induced effects and is reduced for leakage from the state economy as direct spending related to the event is re-spent by recipients. 4 • Employee Compensation: The IMPLAN model estimates that Hits: 4 |
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdffrom the prior tax year that they opted to apply to the fourth estimated payment. This shortfall is temporary. Pennsylvania Economy The state economy appears to be operating at full capacity, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% (December 2018), strong net jobs growth Hits: 4 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdffactor that drives that outcome is the substantial federal stimulus monies that have been injected into the state economy. Table 1.2 contains (1) IFO estimates of foregone labor income due June 2020 Forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real GDP 2 2020. 1 By comparison, the unemployment compensation and economic impact payments inject $42.3 billion into the state economy, which more than offsets lost labor income. It is important to note that the economic impact payments were received by 6.6 Hits: 4 |
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdfto 16 IMPLAN is an economic input-output model that captures the interrelationships between individual sectors of state and local economies. It incorporates the most recent data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on supply chains and economic job incentivized by the tax credit, another 0.86 jobs are generated as the new spending reverberates through the state economy. These impacts are known as indirect and induced effects. 22 Line 7 Total full- and part-time jobs created under Hits: 3 |
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdfexpanded service on the affected population and (2) the impact of the direct capital investment on the state economy. This analysis examines the issues that affect the net economic return of the Pennsylvania MTBI Tax Credit. The IFO welcomes all questions total output or sales by $1.66 in the state, as the original spending moves through the state economy and is respent. The original $1.00 is referred to as direct spending and the $0.66 is referred to as the Hits: 3 |
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdffederal stimulus and state payments for unemployment compensation. The table only includes monies that will be directly injected into the economy by the state or federal government that do not need to be repaid and excludes general loans to businesses that increased Community Development Block Grants and Emergency Solution Grants. Under normal conditions, the injection of federal monies into a state economy would directly stimulate economic activity and also trigger what is referred to as “multiplier” effects. 5 However, in this instance Hits: 3 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdfperiod, real GDP growth decelerated for both the U.S. and Pennsyl- vania. This outcome is consistent for economies with a maturing population and slower rates of population growth. The average U.S. (2.2 percent) and Pennsylvania (1.7 percent) growth rates are consistent with the long-term potential of both economies, and those rates can serve as a baseline forecast in the absence of a boom or recession. However, in per capita terms Hits: 3 |
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdflabor force contraction and related worker shortage. The impact is more noticeable due to the dramatic reversal in the state economy when large numbers of workers were laid off or furloughed due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded contrast, retirees and elderly residents expand rapidly. These trends illustrate the near-term headwinds for further expansion of the Pennsylvania economy. Even if LFPRs revert to pre-COVID rates (roughly 1.3 ppt higher than current rates), it would still be Hits: 3 |
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdfYEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May 1, 2018 Today’s presentation. PA economy: growth appears to accelerate recently. FY 17-18: hitting estimate except for JUA transfer. FY 18-19: moderately Dollar amounts in millions. Review of FY 2017-18 Estimates May.01.2018 3 FY 2017-18 Gains Driven by Economy Amount IFO Revised Official $34,745 JUA Transfer (Act 44) -200 Corporate Net Income -176 Escheats -109 Gross Receipts -89 Hits: 3 |
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf20. Pension systems achieve annual returns of 7.25%. Healthcare inflation does not accelerate from current rates. State economy operates at long-term potential. Real GDP +1.9% | Wages-Salaries +3.9% | CPI-U +2.1%. No of Education. Limited Replacement Options Increase personal income tax rate (3.07%). Broad base that grows with the state economy. Relatively low rate, but no exemptions or deductions. PA state-local income tax burden > national average. Increase sales Hits: 3 |
PICPA_Presentation.pdf0% 3.0% 2.2% 2.4% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% PA Economy 3.3% Note: Tax revenue excludes non-tax, cigarette and CSFT. Excludes tax amnesty monies and SUT changes. Corp Net 8% 3.5% 0.6% -0.3% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% PA Economy 3.0% Corp Net Income PIT Non-Wage Sales- Motor Tax Revenue PIT Wages Sales- Non-Motor Other Taxes Note Hits: 3 |
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdffunding resources. Energy Programs | Page 42 Performance Measures and State Benchmarks The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy releases an annual State Energy Efficiency Score- card, which ranks all 50 states on their policy and program efforts to save energy 19 19 18 18 Notes: Energy Programs 5 National ranking by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. 2 Percent reduction in net greenhouse gas emission since 2005 (greenhouse gas inventory from DEP). 4 PEDA is the Pennsylvania Energy Development Hits: 3 |
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdfEconomic and Budget Outlook An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE sponsored by the PA Economy League MAY 19, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011. Similar to the Congressional Budget Office. Non-partisan analysis Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. 9 Raise income tax rate (3.07%). Broad tax base that grows with state economy. Exempts retirement income. Relatively low tax rate, but no exemptions/deductions. PA state-local income tax burden Hits: 3 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdfperiod, real GDP growth decelerated for both the U.S. and Pennsyl- vania. This outcome is consistent for economies with a maturing population and slower rates of population growth. The average U.S. (2.2 percent) and Pennsylvania (1.7 percent) growth rates are consistent with the long-term potential of both economies, and those rates can serve as a baseline forecast in the absence of a boom or recession. However, in per capita terms Hits: 3 |
Newsstand_2018_October.pdf(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News Early Data Show PA Economy Had Robust Growth in 2018 Q3 Four real-time data sources suggest that the Pennsylvania economy recorded robust growth for the third quarter of 2018. Based on non-motor sales tax collections, taxable consumer and business Hits: 3 |
MTR-2017-08.pdfin the nation. In addition to significant personal costs, the crisis also has implications for state and local budgets and economies. The opioid overdose death rate (rate per 100,000 in population) has increased dramatically. (See table.) In 2015, Pennsylvania’s 3), while the lowest rates were in Nebraska (3.1) and South Dakota (3.5). The opioid crisis impacts the economy by shrinking the labor force. A recent study by Goldman Sachs finds that the crisis may be connected to declining Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-12.pdfGDP measures total economic output (adjusted for inflation), and can be used to evaluate the rate at which a state economy expands or contracts. In Pennsylvania, real GDP declined at an average annual rate of 2.0% in the first half services, which comprise nearly 40% of state GDP, were more resilient (1.4% growth, weighted average) than the overall state economy. For the first half of 2016, real GDP grew more slowly in Pennsylvania and its contiguous states (0.7%, weighted Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-10.pdfRECENT TRENDS IN WAGE INCOME Wages and salaries earned by workers are an integral part of the state and national economies. For Pennsylvania, wage income ($308.2 billion) comprised nearly one half (48.4%) of total personal income in 2015. 1 wage growth can serve as both a coincident (i.e., current or real time) and leading indicator of the state economy. Since 2010, statewide annual wage growth has ranged from 2% to 4% (3.3% average), well below the wage growth Hits: 3 |
MTR-2015-10.pdfreceived an average COLA of 1.9% per annum since 2007. The impact of Social Security benefits on the Pennsylvania economy is significant. In 2014, approximately 2.8 million Pennsylvania residents received Social Security benefits (includes retirees, disabled workers and survivors received an average COLA for 2016, an additional $800 million of personal income would have been added to the state economy. The recent decline in consumer prices is primarily the result of depressed energy costs. Although energy purchases comprise only 11 Hits: 3 |
MTR-2015-08.pdfBaɈɅiɈg IɈdɏɍɎɌɓ AdaɊɎɍ Tɉ A ChaɈgiɈg EcɉɈɉɇɓ AɈd Neɑ RegɏɆaɎiɉɈɍ The banking industry is an integral part of the Pennsylvania economy, and supports thousands of jobs by matching borrowers and lenders. The industry has been evolving in recent years due to level. The FDIC data also show that total bank deposits have increased at roughly the same pace as the Pennsylvania economy. However, due in part to consolidation, industry employment has contracted by roughly 6,000 payroll jobs from 2006 to 2014 Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdfthe latest four months of data, growth of wages paid to Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the state economy received a significant boost from the latest round of federal stimulus. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has Data from the BEA show that wages comprise a much larger share of GDP for service sectors of the state economy (e.g., healthcare-social assistance at 84%) than production sectors (e.g., manufacturing at 51%). Because it is such a Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdfPost Strong Gains in January 2023 This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a a decline in initial UI claims in January compared to the prior month. The January data suggest that the state economy continues to expand, despite headwinds in the housing and financial sectors. Monthly Economic Update March 2023 2023 Pre-COVID Aug Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdfClaims Return to Pre-COVID Levels This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a in employment (payroll and self- employed). If monthly job gains continue, then that would be a strong indicator that the economy has likely not entered into recession. However, the UI claims data show a 36.4% increase from the same month Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdfcomponents, and the YOY growth was +4.3% in December. This series is known to lag trends in the broader economy due to the way data are collected and the fact that rental agreements are generally renewed only on an annual Items CPI-U was +1.0%. Since then, $21.0 billion of Economic Impact Payments were injected into the state economy by the federal Consolidated Appropriations Act and American Rescue Plan. A second round of PPP loans injected another $10.0 Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdfthat will determine the pace of inflation deceleration and likelihood of recession is how entrenched inflation has become in the economy and expectations. To provide insight, economists look to the labor market and wage growth. For Pennsylvania, data suggest that inflation it more likely that a slowdown may be necessary to reduce inflation. Some analysts project a “growth recession,” where the economy does not contract, but expands only at a modest rate. Monthly Economic Update April 2022 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Hits: 3 |
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf1.12 billion April payment should have strong growth despite weak quarterly payments. 25.Jan.2017 18 CNIT Growth Underperforms Economy Annual Growth Rates: Corporate Net Income (CNIT) and PA Nominal GDP -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 CNIT Revenues PA Economy Avg. Growth Rate 2007-17 CNIT +1.9% PA Economy +3.3% Bonus Depreciation Original Revised Change 16-17 17- Hits: 3 |
MER-2014-06.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest contributing 0.15 percentage points to total Pennsylvania GSP growth of 0.7 percent. Signi Ðicant sectors of the Pennsylvania economy that remained relatively Ðlat in 2013 include dura‐ ble goods manufacturing (0.1% growth, 6.6% of GSP), wholesale and Hits: 3 |
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdfKnittel, Director Economic Forecast and Business Leadership Summit February 2024 February 22, 2024 Good Afternoon. On Today’s Agenda…. PA Economy What happened to that recession? Some Caveats Data quality has deteriorated. Lower response rates. Larger revisions. 3 Bold Predictions Feb 2024 Economic Summit Slide 1 March 2020, economy shuts down. What changed? Some data that track same metric tell different stories (e.g., jobs) Rapid PA labor market Hits: 3 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdfplans and five tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of Hits: 3 |
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdfthe fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Hits: 3 |
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdfAppropriations Committees February 10, 2014 The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provided background materials to the committee regarding the office, the economy and major General Fund revenue sources. I will not review that material in the limited time for opening remarks. Rather 1 st , I would like to take this opportunity to outline our current thinking about the revenue outlook and the economy. FY 2013-14 Revenue Outlook The IFO recently published a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for the current Hits: 3 |
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf9.2% -2.5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends Pennsylvania state tax revenues are economic indicators such as the unem- ployment rate, job growth and overall wages. As the economy strengthens (lower unemployment and higher wages), state revenues typically rise. As the economy weakens, state revenues typically fall (barring any Hits: 3 |
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf9.2% -2.5% 7.2% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends how foreign profits will fare, largely due to economic uncertainty in the Eurozone. An important issue for the U.S. economy is whether profits will translate into increased investment spending. Corporations are likely waiting for the res- olution of many issues Hits: 3 |
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfemployee compensation includes pension contributions and employer payroll taxes which do not have immediate implications for the state economy. Therefore, the analysis reduces the balanced budget multiplier by 15 percent to reflect those impacts and deducts $10.1 * 0.85 = $8 increase total output or sales by $2.00 in the state, as the original spending moves through the economy (is respent). Line 13 The product of lines 11 and 12: the total economic impact (loss) associated with the credit. Line 14 Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdfestimate includes an offset that reduces the revenue loss from rate reduction to reflect dynamic effects (i.e., allowing the economy to expand or contract in response to the policy). For the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, most studies this secondary outcome, including an unrelated shock to demand for very high-skilled labor due to a strong U.S. economy. Yu, Mankad and Shunko (2021) 7 The study examines the impact of the minimum wage on firms’ scheduling practices in Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdfbut with the enactment of the federal American Rescue Plan in March of 2021 (roughly $25 billion for the Pennsylvania economy), actual revenues outperformed even that estimate by $1,955 million, or 4.8%. Fiscal Year 2021-22 The difference between past three fiscal years, CNIT and SUT have been major contributors to forecast error. As a share of the overall economy, non-financial domestic corporate profits reached all-time highs in 2021 and 2022 and profit margins did not revert as Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdfInitial Revenue Estimate FY 2019-20 Independent Fiscal Office May 20, 2019 Main Themes PA economy performs as expected in 2018 GDP, wage and jobs growth close to forecast Other factors drive large revenue gains Some deceleration in growth April jobs numbers look solid, withholding growth stable at 4% Economic factors Overseas economies. Interest rates. Stock market volatility. 2019 Q1 profits number end of month Business investment slowdown (WSJ May 19 Hits: 2 |
RB 2019 RACP.pdflocation of supply chains and workers, and the populations that will benefit from the new monies injected into the local economy. While certain metropolitan statistical areas could be modeled using traditional economic analysis, the economic effects for those urban areas could the estimates could be twice as large. 5 Finally, if the new project has long-term implications for the local economy, then those impacts would also need to be estimated. Other multipliers can be used to estimate potential short-term employment Hits: 2 |
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Updated for 2020 Decennial Census. Forecast by IFO. See “2021 Demographic Outlook” Nov. 2021. Economy: PA Labor Force Contraction Continues January 19, 2022 3 Labor Force # Employed + # Unemployed Unemployment Rate # Unemployed / Labor Force Unemployed Actively Jan 2020 Unemployment Rate $600/wk ends $300/wk ends Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Advance CTC starts Economy: Recent Acceleration of Inflation January 19, 2022 4 Very High Used Cars +38.1% Gasoline +37.4% Energy +25.1% Hits: 2 |
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdfEconomic Outlook: Has it improved since spring? o Short Answer: No. o Economy has absorbed some hits. o A few more to come. Tax Revenues. o Best real-time indicator of PA economic from sales of securities $111 billion $34 billion 24 . Sept . 2013 9 How Are Revenues? Revenues best indicator of PA economy. Often a disconnect between economic forecast and real time revenue data. Look at data from first quarter of FY 2013- Hits: 2 |
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf2018 Limited Replacement Options Increase personal income tax rate (3.07%). Broad base that grows with the state economy. Relatively low rate, but no exemptions or deductions. PA state-local income tax burden > national average. Increase and/or broaden base. Narrow base that exempts services, groceries and clothing. Generally grows slower than the state economy. PA state-local sales tax burden < national average. 13 March 8, 2018 Revenue Volatility Comparison -8.0% -6.0% Hits: 2 |
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdfincome less important. • Non‐taxable income: Social Security, Pensions, IRAs. 25 Persistent Tax Base Erosion 12.May.2016 AAGR PA Economy ‐ Nominal Gross Domestic Product 3.2% Sales Tax Base PA Personal Consumption Expenditures 3.3% All Goods 2.4% All U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey. Consumer Spending by Age Cohort 28 12.May.2016 AAGR PA Economy – Nominal Gross Domestic Product 3.2% Personal Income Tax Wages or Gross Compensation 3.3% Income Exempt from Tax Social Hits: 2 |
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdfAgency Overview | Page 3 Department of Agriculture Overview Mission Statement The Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture exists to ensure a vibrant economy, a successful future for Pennsylvania agriculture, and to safeguard the public through: (1) targeted investments to grow opportu- nities and lead agencies that choose to put their funds on account with the large regional food banks can take advantage of economies of scale. The department uses a formula to allocate SFPP and PASS funds based on county unemployment data, county SNAP Hits: 2 |
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdfGoals and Outcomes The consolidation of print and mail activities under one entity enables the Commonwealth to leverage economies of scale through the use of high-volume print and mail equipment. The goals of this activity include increased volume and efficiency Commonwealth or federal government and to facilitate the donation or procurement of law enforcement goods and materials. The economies of scale available from the consolidation of these oper- ations should enhance overall efficiency and provide cost savings for state and local Hits: 2 |
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptxAdministration 14 4.9 % 1.3 0.3 % International Trade and Investment 14 4.7 % 6.9 1.6 % Innovation Economy and Investments 9 3.0 % 26.8 6.2 % Local Infrastructure 8 2.9 % 97.3 22.6 % Small Business Keystone Communities ▪ Activity metrics include impacts from both state and federal funds January 23, 2020 17 DCED Metric Highlights Innovation Economy (BFTD, Venture Investments, Life Sciences) ▪ Metrics reported by third parties | no verification ▪ Cost per job created: $7,000 to $ 11 Hits: 2 |
NewsStand_2019_September.pdfwas able to rule out health issues and incarceration as potential fac- tors. Pennsylvania Claims Title of Most Diverse State Economy Bloomberg recently released an Economic Diversity Index for the nation, based on gross domestic product (GDP) by industry and government. A diverse economy helps insulate states from large economic swings when one industry has an economic downturn. Pennsylvania ranked first in the index Hits: 2 |
Newsstand_2018_November.pdfEconomic Analysis released preliminary state real Gross Domestic Product data for 2018 Q2. On a quarterly annualized basis, the Pennsylvania economy expanded by 3.6%. That rate is con- siderably higher than the prior two quarters: 2017 Q4 (0.1%) and the labor market by larger firms as possible reasons. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-11-20 20:39:26 ModDate: 2018-11-20 20:39:26 Producer: Microsoft® Publisher Hits: 2 |
Newsstand_2018_May.pdfThe U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released 4 th quarter state GDP data. For the entire year, the Pennsylvania economy expanded at a real rate of 1.8%, led by the mining (17.5%) and information (4.8%) sectors, while of the year in anticipation of potential tax cuts. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: TDorr CreationDate: 2018-05-16 16:46:55 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2018-05-16 Hits: 2 |
Newsstand_2018_July.pdfreleased its final forecast of GDPNow for 2018 Q2. The forecast projects the real growth rate of the U.S. economy based on various government data releases during the past three months. A preliminary growth rate will be released by the requested an extension to file (typically upper-income taxpayers). IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: TDorr CreationDate: 2018-07-24 19:05:23 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2018-07-24 Hits: 2 |
Newsstand_2018_April.pdffrom Forbes magazine discusses the production of shale gas in Pennsylvania and surrounding states and its potential impact on the economy and communities. The article notes that production from the Utica and Marcellus Shale basins will “provide a significant financial advantage mortgage interest rates are on the rise. (Full Article) IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: TDorr CreationDate: 2018-04-20 17:19:20 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2018-04-20 Hits: 2 |
MTR-2019-08.pdffigure in the table is a three-month average gain.) Retail sales remains a bright spot for the Pennsylvania economy. Year-over-year growth in retail sales was strong in August (6.4%), but slower growth in June and July Source: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source Hits: 2 |
MTR-2018-08.pdfweak escheats and fines, penalties and interest revenues. Overall, August collections were consistent with the underlying strength of the state economy. SUT collections continue to exceed expectations as collections for the last three months were up 8.1 percent from last diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-05.pdflag other key economic metrics, or U.S. consumer spending generally. Consumer spending will need to accelerate for the PA economy to break from its tepid economic expansion. Sales tax revenues for May were encouraging (3.2% growth), but additional data on latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-03.pdfgross earnings, and those data can be used to quantify the relative size of a given sector for the Pennsylvania economy. For 2015, the only sector to contract was the mining sector (-6.7%), largely due to a reduction in employment on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-01.pdfexpanding by 106,800 payroll jobs (12.5%). This sector is typically the largest generator of jobs for the Pennsylvania economy and comprises 16.4% of total employment. The professional and business services sector (includes administrative and management) expanded by 60 on latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 2 |
MTR-2015-11.pdfrate of 6.0% per annum from 2005 ($22.3 billion). The export growth rate outpaced that of the Pennsylvania economy (measured by state gross domestic product), which grew at an average rate of 3.1% per annum over the same three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdfsuggests that this could signal optimism about future business conditions, or could be a result of people entering the gig economy to diversify income sources after payroll job losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth in Pennsylvania business applications Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdfRTT collections declined 31.6% compared to the prior year. The home sales contraction will also reverberate through the state economy in less obvious ways, and generally reduce longer-term growth: ▪ Less labor mobility. Workers may defer relocation and better pay Intelligence. 6. U.S. is the seasonally adjusted rate. Source: Redfin. 9. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdfIndex. Policymakers focus attention on the inflation metric, but it is not the only measure of price changes in the economy. PA Adds 35,700 Jobs in January, Employment Down 455,000 from Prior Year On March 15, the U.S Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdfnoted in a WSJ article, natural gas prices have risen to levels not recorded in over two years as the economy reopens and temperatures run above normal. U.S. production growth has also been modest in 2021, reducing a supply glut Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdfstates. The latest data reveal dramatically different outcomes for the growth of average hourly earnings across sectors of the state economy. The top line of the table below shows the year-over-year (YOY) growth in the nominal average hourly earnings Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdfGains Revert to Pre-COVID Average This economic update uses recent state labor market data to assess whether the Pennsylvania economy has slowed or entered into recession. Labor market data are informative because they are leading economic indicators published on a Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdfthe long-term state economic outlook, productivity gains through business investment could more than offset those factors. For the Pennsylvania economy, productivity gains will be a critical factor to the long-term outlook. Monthly Economic Update April 2021 Monthly Data Nov- Rate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 2 |
MER-2015-06.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends GDP per capita grew at an average rate of 0.5 percent per annum. Recent trends indicate that the Pennsylvania economy is gaining momentum, with real growth of 1.5 percent in 2013 and 1.7 percent in 2014. In both Hits: 2 |
MER-2015-01.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends the rest of the year. In general, consumers are more inclined to spend their income when their confidence in the economy improves. However, it is not clear how quickly the savings at the gas pump translate into additional consumer spending. Many Hits: 2 |
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdfover the ten-year period. Per your request, that estimate is static because it does not assume that the state economy expands due to the tax cut. The estimate does reflect consumer response through the application of an elasticity parameter: consumers static tax cut estimate into the REMI model. The REMI model is a dynamic economic model that allows the state economy to expand or contract in response to policy or other changes. It allows relative prices to change in response to Hits: 2 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdfregarding the time frame for transmittal of those plans and reviews. The IFO also prepares monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinates analyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of Hits: 2 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdffurnishing data for tax credit reviews. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of Hits: 2 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfconsider the FY 2023-24 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of Hits: 2 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdfconsider the FY 2022-23 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of Hits: 2 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdfstate’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of 100%) Shelter (37.8%) Food-Beverage (13.0%) Energy (6.9%) Pennsylvania Economic Trends Latest Years (YOY) Latest Quarters (YOY) Economy and Income Consumer Price Index Real GDP Nominal GDP Disposable Cash Income Wages and Salaries Social Security Retirement Independent Fiscal Hits: 2 |
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdfthat tax source as we prepare to release our five-year budget projections in November. Related to revenues, the state economy is performing as expected. Through July, the labor market produced 62,800 net jobs (preliminary, average gain) relative to the state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of Hits: 2 |
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdfin fiscal analysis. An IFO analyst: 1) compiles, organizes, analyzes and forecasts data relating to state revenues, expenditures and the economy; 2) applies economic and statistical principles, practices and techniques to design and complete research on fiscal and economic issues; 3) prepares regular reports on the economy and state revenues; and 4) drafts text and prepares data tables and graphs for presentations and published analyses. Applicants will Hits: 2 |
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdfgrowth of personnel cost drivers after FY 19-20 Personnel costs are 13% of state budget (excludes PSERS) State economy operates at long-term potential | No recession Real GDP +1.8% | Wages-Salaries +3.9% | CPI-U +2.0% Roughly $500 million lower by final year Pick up from FY 18-19 revenue gains (sales, corporate net income) Economy outperforms forecast, especially wage growth Had assumed +4.0% | Actual is ~+4.5% Translates to gains for personal Hits: 2 |
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdfWhat implications do broad demographic trends have for revenues and expenditures? What is the likely path of the Pennsylvania economy over the next six years? Will future tax revenues be sufficient to fund the policy choices reflected in the draw any conclusions about any overage or shortfall for the year. External events (e.g., federal tax policy & global economy) will play significant role. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 35 15.Nov.2012 Revenues FY 2012-13 Overview – Highlights Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdfis largely done ▪ Attention shifts to age 75+ and long-term care Economics ▪ Not a forecast, a controlled simulation | PA economy reverts to long-term growth Revenues ▪ Corporate profits still at very high levels, but reversion expected ▪ Treasury collections surge to 3 -$308 -$658 Note: Millions of dollars. ▪ 23-24: Higher FMAP extended into 23-24 ($473 million) ▪ 23-24: 2023 economy more resilient than assumed ▪ Long-term: lower revenue generating capacity Update: Revenue Capacity Contracts November 15, 2023 15 Net Revenue Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdfof presentation Both presentations run ~45 minutes – questions at end Purpose: provide assessment of long-term fiscal outlook Method: assume economy reverts to long-term trends Key Themes and Issues Federal Stimulus, Labor Force, Inflation November 15, 2021 1 Today’s EIP is economic impact payment DurablesCPI-U Jan 21 +3.5% Apr 21 +7.3% Oct 21 +13.2% Inflated Economy: Revenue Growth for July to October November 15, 2021 14 Revenue Source YOY Growth Notes Sales - Motor Vehicle -5.7% Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdfdeficit. 11/15/2016 4 Some Important Caveats Not Exactly a Forecast. A Controlled Simulation. What happens if PA economy has “normal” growth? Assumes no recession over next five years. No New State or Federal Policy Changes. But in Retirements During the Next Decade. Just starting. Labor force participation rates also climb for 65+. Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? New Data Suggest Int’l Migration Much Higher. Domestic migration changes from positive to Hits: 2 |
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdfStudies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 28, 2020 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics and economy Labor market still robust | consumers drive growth Auto loan delinquencies at all time high | mortgage refis double State 70 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Corporate Net Income Personal Income Sales-Use PA Economy or GDP Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Wayfair Decision +66% +48% +43% +40% 2010-11 = 1.0 Lottery and Other Hits: 2 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdfconsider the FY 2021-22 budget proposal. Functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates, publication of performance-based budgeting and tax credit evaluation reports, coordinating analyses and issuing state’s fiscal condition for the current fiscal year and subsequent five fiscal years by taking account of the state economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures. January 31 Convene a revenue conference with the chairs of the Appropriations Committees, the Secretary of Hits: 2 |
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdfthe fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Hits: 2 |
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdfthe fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” In fulfillment of the demographics obligation, the IFO submits this report to the residents of the the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Hits: 2 |
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdfRevenues are projected to increase sharply this year and then hover around their historical average as a share of the economy. 11 Outlays, by Category of Spending Under current law, mandatory outlays fall for the next few years before higher spending largest source of federal revenues—rose sharply in 2021 and are projected to do so again in 2022 as the economy recovers from recession and temporary provisions enacted in response to the pandemic expire. Those receipts are projected to rise again Hits: 2 |
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdfa "static" estimate that does not include dynamic effects. The dynamic effect is the offsetting revenue from a larger economy. 29.Jan.2018 11 Economic Impact of Federal Tax Cut Total Tax Cut Dynamic Extra Real GDP Growth FFY 2018- 18. Key: What will corporations do with tax cut? How quickly does it show up in the PA economy? 29.Jan.2018 26 Summary Author: Lauren Mondschein Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2018-01-30 19:03:33 Creator: Acrobat PDFMaker Hits: 2 |
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdfto ser- vice that debt provides a more informative way to gauge the potential implications of debt for the Pennsylvania economy. The graph below depicts the ratio of total consumer debt to disposable current income (DCI) for Pennsylvania. Disposable current income due to significant reductions in mortgage and credit card debt. An important question for the U.S. and Pennsylva- nia economies is whether this “deleveraging” process has ended. For 2013, the forecast projects a slight uptick in the debt- to-DCI Hits: 2 |
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdfHistorical buildings, docks and other infrastructure that previously supported shipbuilding, fishing and warehousing activities have degraded over time as the economy matures. Investment in the development and adaptation of neglected historic buildings and structures can serve as a focal point for Hits: 1 |
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdfa rich agricultural history and with roughly 50,000 farms in operation, agriculture is a significant contributor to the state economy. An understanding of the sector and the environmental impact of farmland operations provide context for the goals and purpose of Hits: 1 |
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfcredits. Similar to an HPTC, those actions would also have direct, indirect and multiplier effects on a state economy. In order for policymakers to assess whether the credit is an efficient use of state resources, they must know the economic impact Hits: 1 |
TCJA-Update-August-2018.pdfported-b y- conference-committee -121517-preliminar y-static-and-dy namic-e ffects-on-the-bud get-and-the-econom y. 2 See htt ps://www .tax polic ycenter.or g/publications/effect-tc ja-individual-i ncome-tax-provisions- Hits: 1 |
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdfcloud computing to provide policymakers and support staff with a transparent platform that projects the impact on the budget and economy while writing legislation. 2) Regular convening with members, federal agencies and support committees Where is the United States Headed? More Hits: 1 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdfasked how the Commonwealth compares to border states in the education sector and the impact of immigration on the state economy. Page 9 of the IFO’s budget hearings packet contains total net domestic migration trends by state from the U Hits: 1 |
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdffrom 3.1 in FY 2021-22 to 3.3 in FY 2024-25. These two projections assume that the economy does not experience a recession or significant slowdown during the forecast period. A school district that seeks to increase its Hits: 1 |
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdfadded to provide context IFO required to examine all revenue proposals in the Executive Budget Slide 2 Jan 2024 Roundtable Economy performs as expected • Through January, IFO estimate ~$130 million (0.5%) over actual $23.7 billion • Expecting modest growth next Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdfreflects the recent underperformance of wage and salary withholding payments,” Knittel noted. “Wages are the largest component of the state economy, and the recent weakness in collections motivated a revision to the economic outlook for 2016 and 2017.” A copy of Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdfwithholding due date compared to the prior fiscal year. Nonwitholding revenues are projected to grow slightly faster than the overall economy. Non-tax – Receipts are projected to decline due to the absence of significant non-recurring revenues received in FY14-15 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdfmade on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to continue expanding in FY 2015-16,” Knittel said. “However, some of the revenue growth from improved economic Hits: 1 |
Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdfnon-taxable If taxable, significant implications for revenues October 29, 2020 13 How Could COVID-19 Transform the PA Economy? CY 2020: 450,000 less jobs | ~$25 billion lower labor income Directly translates to lower spending | great majority spent Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdfbut with the enactment of the federal American Rescue Plan in March of 2021 (roughly $25 billion for the Pennsylvania economy), actual revenues outperformed even that estimate by $1,955 million, or 4.8%. Continued strength in consumer spending and better Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf21 state budget. Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 4 Rescue Plan in March of 2021 (roughly $25 billion for the Pennsylvania economy), actual revenues outperformed even that estimate by $1,955 million, or 4.8%. Continued strength in consumer spending and better Hits: 1 |
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdffederal debt limit and sequestration cause a widespread slowdown. • Strength in housing sector spills over to the rest of the economy (e.g., wealth effects). • Flat profits forecast translates into minimal stock market gains. • Lower debt burdens support additional consumer spending Hits: 1 |
REU-2020-02.pdfSource: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source Hits: 1 |
REU-2020-01.pdfSource: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source Hits: 1 |
REU-2019-12.pdfSource: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source Hits: 1 |
REU-2019-11.pdfSource: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source Hits: 1 |
REU-2019-10.pdfSource: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdfthe end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commonwealth and federal government enacted a renter eviction moratorium to provide Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdfthe end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The federal government utilizes federal medical assistance percentages (FMAPs) to determine reimbursement rates to states for Medicaid and the Children Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdfthe end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and related mitigation efforts, many firms have struggled to retain employees and Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdfthe end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. As part of the omnibus appropriations bill passed December 2022, the final month of SNAP emergency allotments is February 2023 Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdflabor force contraction and related worker shortage. The impact is more noticeable due to the dramatic reversal in the state economy when large numbers of workers were laid off or furloughed due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdflabor force contraction and related worker shortage. The impact is more noticeable due to the dramatic reversal in the state economy when large numbers of workers were laid off or furloughed due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdffrom the prior year. 2 Despite strong nominal wage gains, the real value of those gains has been eliminated by economy-wide inflation as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). To examine this issue for Pennsylvania workers Hits: 1 |
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdfPennsylvania Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Pennsylvania nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP, includes inflation). Since FY 2004-05, the state economy has expanded by 62 percent, followed closely by school property tax (61 percent) and personal income tax (60 percent). Graph Hits: 1 |
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdfexpenditure growth has the potential to significantly exceed revenue growth over this period. Other major findings include: The Pennsylvania economy will continue to expand, but at a lackluster pace. Demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth Hits: 1 |
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdfPA’s long-term structural imbalance. Origins date to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Persists even when PA economy returns to “normal” growth. Demographic trends and budget implications. Aging populace. Tax base erosion and expenditure cost-drivers Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf18 (+3.9%). FY 18-19: tax revenue growth of +4.2%. Federal tax cut continues to flow into economy. Corporate base expansion enhances revenues. Tight labor market sustains wage growth. Inflation accelerates above 2%. Helps pricing Hits: 1 |
platt ppt.pdffor Pennsylvania January 18, 2012 www.bea.gov BEA’s Mission To promote a better understanding of the U.S. economy by providing the most timely, relevant and accurate economic accounts data in an objective and cost- effective manner 2 www Hits: 1 |
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdfFebruary 27, 2018 Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office CompetePA Retreat Economy, Revenues and Budget Pennsylvania economic growth rates or change 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Domestic Product 2.3% 0 Hits: 1 |
PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdfthe Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office June 11, 2019 Main Themes PA economy performed as expected in 2018 GDP, wage and jobs growth was close to forecast Other factors driving large revenue Hits: 1 |
perez ppt.pdfperformance (35 states and PR) Budget reserves (AK, ME, NE) Employment growth (MI, OK and VA) Agricultural economy (IA, SD) Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, Fall 2011 FY 2012 State Budget Outlook: Challenges Fastest Growing Hits: 1 |
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdfthe bureau is used by government agencies, industry, the conservation community, academia and private citizens to make decisions affecting the economy, the environment and human health and safety. 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Actual 21- Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdfresearch and med- ical science has increased 38 percent. Therefore, the injection of federal funds into the state economy not only enhances research, it also creates jobs and raises income levels. Much of the federal funds flow to universities that will Hits: 1 |
PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdffrom studies because there are no published detail or data June 17, 2021 7 Expiration of UC Benefits Will Shock Economy For May, roughly 1.0 million residents received some form of UC ▪ ~1 in 8 PA adults age 20 to Hits: 1 |
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf68 TH PASBO Annual Conference & Exhibits Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 16, 2023 Good Morning and a Quick Overview I PA Economy: Where are we? ▪ Latest data: jobs, inflation, labor market ▪ Focus: labor market and demographics ▪ Focus: inflation and wages II Statewide Hits: 1 |
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdfHigh Growth: impact of new stimulus, inflation and early retirements American Rescue Plan (ARP) injects ~$56 billion into PA economy Causes faster wage growth and higher inflation Also: a contracting working age demographic | exits from labor force do Hits: 1 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdffirst quarter of 2018 show very strong job gains on a year-over- year basis for the Pennsylvania economy (71,300 on an annual basis, not seasonally adjusted). The only exceptions are the retail and government sectors, which both rec- orded Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_February_2020.pdfcentral regions of the state. If the spotted lanternfly were to spread across the state, the impact to the Pennsylvania economy could be $324 million annually including a loss of 2,800 jobs. The majority of the direct losses would impact Hits: 1 |
NewsStand_2019_May.pdfEconomic Analysis released state GDP data for 2018 Q4. The preliminary data for calendar year 2018 show that the state economy expanded by 2.1% in real terms (excludes inflation). Quarterly annualized growth rates were as follows: 0.7% (Q1), 4 Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2019_March.pdfconsumer spending and sales tax revenues in the spring. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2019-03-18 20:30:14 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2019-03-19 13:50:54 Producer: Microsoft Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2019_April.pdf8% (Q2), 17.2% (Q3) and 14.9% (Q4). IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2019-04-22 18:33:56 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2019-04-22 18:34:19 Producer: Microsoft Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_June.pdfthe first quarter on a year-over-year basis. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-06-19 15:09:50 ModDate: 2018-06-19 15:09:50 Producer: Microsoft® Publisher Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_December.pdfall figures are preliminary and subject to significant revision. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy CreationDate: 2018-12-11 20:10:49 Creator: Microsoft® Publisher 2016 ModDate: 2018-12-11 20:11:22 Producer: Microsoft Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_August.pdfrecession in the next 12 months at 18.3%. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-08-20 15:21:32 ModDate: 2018-08-20 15:21:32 Producer: Microsoft® Publisher Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-09.pdfSource: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-07.pdfSource: PA Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-06.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-05.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-04.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-03.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-02.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-01.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-12.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-11.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-10.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-1.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-09.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-07.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-06.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-05.pdfdiffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-04.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-03.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-02.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-12.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-11.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-10.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-09.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-07.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-06.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-04.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-03.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-02.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-01.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-11.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-09.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-08.pdfon latest three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-05.pdfon latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-04.pdfon latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-02.pdfon latest three month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary Hits: 1 |
MTR-2015-09.pdfthree month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2015-07.pdfthree month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source Hits: 1 |
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdfScholarship Tax Credits (OSTC) to $55 million annually and increases the maximum scholarship amount for applicants attending an economi- cally disadvantaged school to $9,500 for an applicant without a disability and to $16,000 for an applicant with a disability Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdfIntelligence. 6. U.S. is the seasonally adjusted rate. Source: Redfin. 9. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdfUnit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdfUnit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 9. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 9. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdfRate. Pennsylvania figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdfUnit is dollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U Hits: 1 |
MidYear_PublicBriefing_Jan2018.pdf2017-18. The presentation will also include a discussion of the impact of federal tax law changes on the state economy and tax revenues and a preliminary revenue outlook for FY 2018-19. Mid-Year Revenue Update www.ifo.state.pa Hits: 1 |
MER-2015-04.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2015-03.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2015-02.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-12.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-11.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-10.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-09.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-08.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-07.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Value for 2014.2 is 4.0%. Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-05.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-04.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 (Preliminary rate for 2014.1 is 0.1%). Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-03.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-01.pdfPennsylvania Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes in Ðlation. 1 Personal Income The year‐over‐year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest Hits: 1 |
MER-2013-12.pdf2013 Quarterly United States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends Hits: 1 |
MER-2013-11.pdffor this industry ($76,930) was significantly higher than the statewide average for all private industries ($48,150). The Pennsylvania Economy League of Greater Pittsburgh estimates that the proposed ethane cracker could employ approximately 400 individu- als once fully operational. 1 Hits: 1 |
Labor_Market_Update_Sept_2021.pdfthe expiration of extra federal UC benefits, the monthly data will provide important insights into the state of the Pennsylvania economy. Labor Market Update September 2021 June July August June July August Total Payroll Employment -389.1 -358.3 -362.0 Hits: 1 |
Kling_Presentation.pdfCBO uses to make long-term projections An appendix about the effects of the 2017 tax act on the economy and budget A primer about how CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs Explaining Analytical Methods: Providing General Hits: 1 |
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdfbiggest companies. All publicly traded companies, and larger privately owned companies. Why Cutting Corporate Income Taxes Won’t Help State Economies Short-term budget constraints mean spending must be cut to pay for it. Benefits of tax cut accrue Hits: 1 |
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdfmade on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute. “The Pennsylvania economy is expected to grow moderately in FY 2017-18,” Knittel said. “Revenue growth will be constrained by non-recurring revenues Hits: 1 |
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdffirst quarter of 2018 show very strong job gains on a year-over- year basis for the Pennsylvania economy (71,300 on an annual basis, not seasonally adjusted). The only exceptions are the retail and government sectors, which both rec- orded Hits: 1 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf3 million increase over CY 2020. This scenario is less likely but plausible if price recovery outpaces projections as the economy reopens and energy demand continues to recover. For CY 2021, the projected ETRs are 1.4% for Scenario 1 and Hits: 1 |
IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdfrealized capital gains in 2012 instead of 2013 to avoid federal tax increases. Depending on the performance of the Pennsylvania economy in the first six months of 2014, the revisions could prove to be conservative. However, marked improvement in jobs and Hits: 1 |
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdfAging and the Pennsylvania Economy Task Force on Private Sector Retirement Security January 25, 2018 Aging Population Has Broad Implications Pennsylvania undergoing dramatic transformation Hits: 1 |
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdfthe financial statement incorporates a flat level of spending for non-mandatory expenditures. The report assumes that the state economy operates at its long-term capacity over the five-year budget window. Therefore, the economic forecast represents a “best case Hits: 1 |
IFO ppt.pdfOutlook 2012 Revenue Conference Economic Outlook Summary • Crucial short-term factors: – Potential for European debt crisis. Recent French downgrade. German economy contracts in 2011 Q4. Forecast assumes crisis averted, minor recession instead. – Extension of payroll tax cut. Economic forecast assumes full Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdfOutlook Projections by IFO U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis The Economic Outlook PA economy shows solid growth through 2017 Q3. Pace of annual jobs creation is +65,000 jobs. Wages growing by Hits: 1 |
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdfpensions and healthcare inflation continue to drive much of the expenditure growth in the five year projections. The Pennsylvania economy will expand, but at a moderate pace. Long-term demographic trends and continued tax base erosion will constrain revenue growth Hits: 1 |
EPLC_April_2024.pdfEffective Interest Rate 16.7% 22.8% Notes Education Policy & Leadership Center Slide 12 • GDP is growth of overall PA economy • Corporate profits surge • Capital gains surge in 2021 • Sales tax continues to hold up well Strong Revenue Growth During Pandemic Hits: 1 |
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdfSpecial Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage March 4, 2022 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief Hits: 1 |
EPLC-2-19-21.pdfSpecial Studies: property tax reform, natural gas, minimum wage February 19, 2021 2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics, economy and COVID impacts ▪ A contracting labor force ▪ COVID job losses and partial recovery | some permanent job loss ▪ Federal COVID relief Hits: 1 |
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf5,800 5,880 80 1.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data for 2016 are preliminary. PA Economy Downshifts February 28, 2017 10 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U Hits: 1 |
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdfborne by workers, retirees. •Why the increase? 1. Greater investment in risky assets 2. Plans much larger now relative to economy and state-local budgets than 10-20 years ago •Details are in the appendix 13 * 30-year closed-period level Hits: 1 |
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdfthem at end If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible Slide 2 Mid-Year Update Economy somewhat stronger than assumed, but revenues running slightly under forecast PA Economic Forecast Update: June 2023 vs January 2024 Slide Hits: 1 |
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdfto services 3 Strong house and stock markets through December (wealth effects) 4 More stimulus $$ (EIPs) makes their way into economy ▪ Original Surveys: ~25% spent | ~75% saved or pays down debt ▪ Spending recirculating faster? (money velocity and economic multipliers) ▪ Student loan Hits: 1 |
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfthe wide use of GDP, the measure has limitations. For example, GDP does not capture activity in the un- derground economy or certain types of production such as an individual who mows their own lawn. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA Hits: 1 |
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdfof Pennsylvania The unemployment rate is one of the most important and referenced indicators relating to the status of the economy. However, this metric provides an incomplete picture of the labor market and should be viewed in con- junction with other Hits: 1 |
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdfAnnual Rate U.S. Personal Savings Rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1 See “Wealth Spending and the Economy, ”http://economix. blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/12/wealth-spending-and-the-econo my/?hp and “Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975- Hits: 1 |
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdfPennsylvania Over the past year, there has been discussion on how the increase in federal income taxes would impact the economy and more specifically the tim- ing of dividend payments paid by corporations to their shareholders. Various media outlets reported anecdotal Hits: 1 |
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf5 billion impact from expiration of the payroll tax cut causes an approxi- mate 1 percent contraction of the Pennsylvania economy. Short-Term Budget Impact Full-year impact on disposable income 5,031 Share of tax cut spent 50% Dollar amount Hits: 1 |
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf7% 4.7% -3.7% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the US economy. Excludes infla- tion. Data are from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate Hits: 1 |
2004_srpvffinal.pdfs public employee retirement system. Centralized administration offers a number of significant advantages that include: efficiency of operation due to economies of scale, consistency and continuity in administrative procedures, increased administra- tive capacity due to the use of professional staff, increased Hits: 1 |
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdfthe Consumer Price Index, the gross domestic product deflator, the employer cost index covering compensation rates in the civilian nonfarm economy, the average increase in compensation paid to all active employees of the applicable employer or the increase in compensation paid Hits: 1 |