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Act 1 Index Reaches New High

The Act 1 index limits the annual increase in school district millage rates. For FY 24-25, PDE recently certified an all-time high value (5.3%). This report examines the factors that drive that outcome and provides projections through FY 28-29.

Tags: act, index, one

Act 1 index Reaches New High

The Act 1 index limits the annual increase in school district millage rates. For FY 24-25, PDE recently certified an all-time high value (5.3%). This report examines the factors that drive that outcome and provides projections through FY 28-29.

11/28/2023

School District Property Tax Update

The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2027-28, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index.

06/28/2023

Economic and Act 1 index Update

Director Knittel gave an Economic and Act 1 index update at the Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials (PASBO) Annual Conference.

03/16/2023

School District Property Tax Update

The IFO released an updated school district property tax forecast. The report (1) projects revenues through FY 2026-27, (2) estimates revenues collected from senior homeowners, (3) ranks counties based on per capita revenues  and (4) provides detail on the projected Act 1 index.

08/15/2022

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's updated forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2020-21 to FY 2025-26. This report updates the forecast that the IFO published in February 2021 and includes (1) actual FY 2019-20 current-year property tax collections, (2) the impact from FY 2021-22 millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 index projection.

11/08/2021

Projecting the Components of the Act 1 index

Director Matt Knittel made a presentation to PASBO regarding the IFO’s recent computation of the Act 1 index.

03/17/2021

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections from FY 2019-20 to FY 2025-26. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes attributable to homestead property. (This report was originally posted on February 2, 2021. Based on new data for the 2020 Q4 ECI, which impacts the FY 2020-21 ECI computation, this report was updated and reposted.)

02/24/2021

School District Property Tax Forecast

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2018-19 through FY 2024-25. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2018-19 ($15.0 billion) and FY 2019-20 ($15.3 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2020-21 through FY 2024-25, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent, reaching $18.6 billion by FY 2024-25.

02/06/2020

SCHOOL DISTRICT PROPERTY TAX FORECAST

This report contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2017-18 through FY 2023-24. The report also contains projections of the Act 1 index and estimates of school district property taxes that can be attributed to homesteads. Total school property tax collections for FY 2017-18 ($14.5 billion) and FY 2018-19 ($14.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2019-20 through FY 2023-24, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, reaching $17.3 billion by FY 2023-24.  

03/18/2019

SPECIAL FUND RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS

In response to a legislative request, the IFO compiled certain data presented in the Governor’s Executive Budget for various years to produce a multi-year history of receipts and disbursements for selected special funds. The letter identifies certain special fund budgeting and reporting issues that should be considered when analyzing the data. The letter also provides computations for a potential budget increase factor based on the annual increases in population and the consumer price index

02/15/2018

Updated School District Property Tax Forecast

Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school district property tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. The letter also includes projections of school district debt service payments and earned income tax collections for FY 2015-16 through FY 2021-22. Total school property tax collections for FY 2015-16 ($13.6 billion) and FY 2016-17 ($13.9 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. For FY 2017-18 through FY 2021-22, collections are projected based on a forecast of the Act 1 index and exceptions. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching $16.5 billion by FY 2021-22. Prior reports / references: (1) 2013 IFO analysis of HB / SB 76 and (2) 2014 update of the school property tax forecast.

01/09/2017

The Effect of Act 1 of 2015

Letter discussing the effect of Act 1, which uses an index to limit the ability of school districts to increase real property millage rates (April 2015).

04/17/2015

Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdf

Act 1 of 2006 limits the annual increase in school district millage rates to a computed statewide index with certain exceptions. 1 The base Act 1 Index is calculated by averaging the percentage increase in the Pennsylvania Statewide Average Weekly Wage (SAWW) and the Employment Cost Index

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

25. Act 1 allows school districts to increase millage rates within certain limits, and the following two sections (Act 1 Index and Act 1 Exceptions) discuss those portions of the forecast. Forecasts of Act 1 allocations and delinquent collections, which comprise provides additional detail on the projections for current-year collections, including the amounts attributable to economic growth, the Act 1 index and Act 1 exceptions. Act 1 Index Act 1, which took effect in FY 2007-08, limits the increase to

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

24. Act 1 allows school districts to increase millage rates within certain limits, and the following two sections (Act 1 Index and Act 1 Exceptions) discuss those portions of the forecast. Forecasts of Act 1 allocations and delinquent collections, which comprise provides additional detail on the projections for current-year collections, including the amounts attributable to economic growth, the Act 1 index and Act 1 exceptions. Act 1 Index Act 1, which took effect in FY 2007-08, limits the increase to

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RB-2018-01.pdf

23. Act 1 allows school districts to increase millage rates within certain limits, and the following two sections (Act 1 Index and Act 1 Exceptions) discuss those portions of the forecast in detail. Forecasts of Act 1 allocations and delinquent collections provides additional detail on the projections for current-year collections, including the amounts attributable to economic growth, the Act 1 index and Act 1 exceptions. A 1 I Act 1, which took effect in FY 2007-08, limits the increase to

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

roughly 3.7 percent per annum during the forecast period, reaching $18.2 billion in FY 2025-26. Act 1 Index Act 1 of 2006, which took effect in FY 2007-08, limits the increase to a school district’s millage rate based on an index, with certain exceptions. This analysis employs the index to estimate the additional revenues school districts could raise through millage increases

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

millage rates and (3) new wage projections that increase the statewide average weekly wage (SAWW) portion of the Act 1 Index projection. Forecast Overview Table 1 provides the IFO’s estimate of school district property taxes for FY 2020-21 and by roughly 4.3% per annum during the forecast period, reaching $18.6 billion in FY 2025-26. Act 1 Index Act 1 of 2006, which took effect in FY 2007-08, limits the increase to a school district’s millage

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SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf

For years without published millage rates, the IFO forecast is based on three primary factors/assumptions: • Weighted average Act 1 Index. This metric is calculated to project the upper limit that property tax collections can increase each year due to millage See technical detail at the end of this update for more detail on the calculation of the weighted Act 1 index. • Act 1 index utilization factor. In general, most school districts do not increase millage rates to the full extent permitted

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SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf

without published millage rates, the IFO forecast is based on three primary factors/assumptions: • Base and weighted average Act 1 Index. These metrics represent the upper limit that property tax collections can increase each year due to millage rates. See technical at the end of this update for more detail on the calculation of the base and weighted average Act 1 Index. • Act 1 Index utilization factor. In general, most school districts do not increase millage rates to the full extent permitted

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

For FY 2006/2007: Illustration of Impact of Reduction of PSERS’ Investment Earnings Assumption – Table V . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 S&P 500 Index Comparison with the S&P South Africa Free Index – Table VI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 State Employees’ Retirement System, Financial Impact of Divesting from Companies “Engaged in Business with” Terror Sponsoring States

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MER-2014-03.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declin‐ ing index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index

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2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

major components (i.e., deck, superstructure, substructure, or culvert). As of 6/30/2020. 2 IRI is the International Roughness Index that measures pavement smoothness. Percentages represent miles rated poor for all routes under PennDOT's jurisdiction. Department of Transportation Overview over long time horizons is a cost-effective approach for the state. Since 2017, the agency’s internal Bid Price Index (BPI) has increased at an average rate of 8.6 percent per annum. The index represents a weighted average of

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MER-2015-01.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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MER-2014-10.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2014-09.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2014-08.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2014-07.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2014-06.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2014-05.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2014-04.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2014-02.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declin‐ ing index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index

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MER-2014-01.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declin‐ ing index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index

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MER-2013-12.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declin- ing index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2013-11.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declin- ing index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

Sales Year-over-year growth rate in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declin- ing index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

in residential home sales based on latest three months of data. Data are from National Association of Realtors. Consumer Confidence Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. Data are from the University of Michigan - Survey of Consumers

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MER-2015-03.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2014-11.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

five years on average, with the amounts generally determined using a formula based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index. Although controversial, the cessation of some or all supplemental annuity payments could result in significant savings. For example, the most System CAFR, 6/30/2012, and calculated using Social Security Administration Methods and Assumptions (http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/quickcalc/index.html). - 25 - Changing the type of retirement system does not necessarily mean a cost savings. The net effect of the

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

systems, the benefit amount is determined by a formula, with over 80% of the formulas based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or some other measurement of inflation. Fixed - In 31% of the retirement systems, the benefit amount is determined as utilized a formula that was in part based on the years on retirement and the increase in the Consumer Price Index since the date of retirement or the last COLA. -ix- Current Pennsylvania Practice (Cont’d) Method of Funding Direct - All

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MER-2015-06.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that reflects

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MER-2015-04.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2015-02.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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MER-2014-12.pdf

year growth rate in the number of residential homes sold based on latest three months of data. 4 Consumer Sentiment Index A diffusion index that re Ðlects consumer optimism. A declining index signals increasing pessimism. 5 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) A diffusion index that

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

and prosecution of crimi- nal activity in Pennsylvania through enforcing laws and improving public awareness regarding crime prevention. ▪ Reduce crime index offenses by five percent over the next five years. The goal of promoting justice and preserving peace is achieved through motor vehicle theft. Drug crimes include possession, sale/manu- facture of illegal drugs (e.g., marijuana, opium/cocaine, synthetic). Crime index offenses combine violent and property crime offenses into a single metric, as these are considered to be the most Performance

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PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf

0 ECONOMIC and ACT 1 INDEX UPDATE 68 TH PASBO Annual Conference & Exhibits Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 16, 2023 Good Morning and a Quick Overview I wages II Statewide Public School Employment, Payroll and Wages ▪ COVID jobs contraction ▪ Real Average Weekly Wage contracts III Act I Index Outlook ▪ Statewide Average Weekly Wage (SAWW) remains elevated ▪ Significant and sudden jump in Employment Cost Index (ECI) March 16, 2023

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

year) in 2022 Q2 and decelerated to 6.4% (estimate) by 2022 Q3. ▪ Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) peaked in 2022 Q2 at 8.6% and de- celerated in 2022 Q3 to 8.1%. If the November 7, 2022. Wells Fargo released November 10, 2022. PNC released September 2022. Annual Growth Rate or Change Consumer Price Index Avg Monthly Change in Payroll Jobs (000s) Economic Outlook | Page 13 Payroll Employment In Spring 2020, the Pennsylvania labor market

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

full year) and 80,000 (2022) net jobs (excludes self-employed and independent contractors). ▪ The Philadelphia CPI-U (consumer price index) increases by 3.5% (2021) and 2.7% (2022). January 2021 Estimate 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.4% Outlook | Page 9 Inflation The only published inflation metric applicable to the state is the Philadelphia metro area consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). Table 1.7 displays the latest year-over-year growth of the All Items

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

Projecting the Components of the Act 1 Index Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials March 17, 2021 Statewide School Property Tax Growth Rates 2 -2.0% -1.0% 20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 All School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Note: Includes Current and Interim, Act 1 Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Forecast, IFO (February 2021

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

full year) and 80,000 (2022) net jobs (excludes self-employed and independent contractors). ▪ The Philadelphia CPI-U (consumer price index) increases by 3.7% (2021) and 2.7% (2022). January 2021 Estimate 2019 2020 2021 2022 Real GDP 2.4% Outlook | Page 9 Inflation The only published inflation metric applicable to the state is the Philadelphia metro area consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). Table 1.7 displays the latest year-over-year growth of the All Items

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

and Salaries grew by more than 10% in the second and third quarters. ▪ Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) accelerated rapidly in 2021 Q2 and maintained its high rate in 2021 Q3. If the imputed Shelter component especially strong due to high demand and supply constraints. Based on price indices for U.S. personal consumption expenditures, the index for durable goods consumption in- creased 7.3% in September on a year-over-year basis. By comparison, the overall

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

and national economies. Some national indicators suggest an increasing risk of recession. Those indicators include: (1) an S&P 500 Index that has declined roughly 10 percent since the start of December, (2) a manufacturing index that has declined in 10 of the past 12 months and (3) declining corporate profits. However, many underlying economic fundamentals

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

average) and 30,000 (2023) net jobs (ex- cludes self-employed and independent contractors). ▪ The Philadelphia CPI-U (consumer price index, annual average) increases by 7.6% (2022) and 4.7% (2023). 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Real GDP 1 policy actions is already evident in the stock and housing markets. Since the end of 2021, the S&P 500 Index has declined 22.9% (through June 17) while the 30-year conventional mortgage rate increased from 3.02% to 5

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

average) and 40,000 (2023) net jobs (ex- cludes self-employed and independent contractors). ▪ The Philadelphia CPI-U (consumer price index, annual average) increases by 7.0% (2022) and 4.5% (2023). Forecasters are currently assessing various potential outcomes for the policy actions is already evident in the stock and housing markets. Since the end of 2021, the S&P 500 Index has declined 17.7% (through May 18) while the 30-year conventional mortgage rate increased from 3.02% to 5

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

domestic product (GDP, excludes inflation), (2) nominal GDP, (3) statewide wages and salaries, (4) the regional consumer price index (CPI-U) and (5) the annual change in payroll employment (i.e., net job gains). These variables motivate most General Fund revenue four years. Data through August 2019 show price growth of 5.2 percent.  The Zillow Home Sales index reveals a contraction in home sales for the same time period, while the average number of days listed continues to fall. Many

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Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf

1.4% to 1.6% (CY 2023) and from -0.2% to 1.3% (CY 2024).  The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) increases from 4.0% to 4.5% (CY 2023) and 2.0% to 2.7% (CY 2024). The 2.1% 1.6% 0.1% PNC Bank -2.8% 5.9% 2.1% 1.4% -0.2% Consumer Price Index IHS Markit 1.3% 4.7% 8.0% 4.2% 2.7% Wells Fargo 1.3% 4.7% 8.0%

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

thereafter, the minimum wage would increase by an annual cost-of-living adjustment based on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI- U) for the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland region. The proposal also removes the ability of how to define a “moderate increase.” Nearly all research on the minimum wage examine values of the Kaitz index that do not exceed 55 percent, or real minimum wage increases that average roughly 10 percent. The Kaitz index is the ratio

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Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf

1.2% to 1.3% (CY 2023) and from -0.4% to 0.9% (CY 2024).  The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) increases from 3.9% to 4.2% (CY 2023) and 1.6% to 2.5% (CY 2024). The 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% PNC Bank -2.8% 5.9% 2.1% 1.2% -0.4% Consumer Price Index IHS Markit 1.3% 4.7% 8.0% 4.2% 2.5% Wells Fargo 1.3% 4.7% 8.0%

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

522 3,297 2,710 Total 6,555 3,843 3,144 6,555 3,843 3,144 Local effort index 5 1st $2,767 $3,788 $2,930 $3,634 $4,975 $3,848 2nd 1,310 3,289 2 3,144 6,555 3,843 3,144 School District Quartiles Based on Poverty, Students of Color and Local Effort Index Estimated FY 21-22 BEF Distribution FY 21-22 If BEF Had Been Distributed Completely Through Fair Funding Formula Notes

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

state metrics are key to the forecast: (1) real gross domestic product (GDP, excludes inflation), (2) the Philadelphia consumer price index (CPI-U), (3) wages and salaries and (4) the annual change in payroll employment (i.e., net job gains, excludes rates for the latest four quarters and the CY 2020 annual average. Notable results include:  The S&P 500 Index increased in all four quarters and was up 8.8 percent for the year (annual average based on month-end

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

9% -1.5% 10 Year Note Yield 2.14 1.84 2.33 2.91 2.14 S&P 500 Index (annual avg.) 5.8% 2.0% 16.6% 12.2% 7.6% Note: S&P 500 Index uses average values for entire year. Corporate Domestic Profits for non-financial firms only. Includes S corporations. Source: U.S

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

IFO forecast uses the structure of “Act 1” to forecast property taxes. There are two major components: 1. The Adjusted Index, which places a cap on the increase in millage rates. 2. Exceptions, which allow school districts to exceed the index for certain expenditures (mainly pensions and special education). 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

56.0 -438.0 100.0 80.0 Wages-Salaries 4.3% -0.1% 6.7% 4.3% Home Price Index 5.1% 7.4% 11.9% -- Note: Net Job Gains for payroll employment only. Excludes self-employed and independent contractors. Home Price Index for 2021 is year-over-year gain for Q1 only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

percent (2020) and increase by 5.5 percent (2021). Those amounts exclude compensation earned by self-employed and inde- pendent contractors.  Payroll Employment contracts by 495,300 (2020, annualized basis) and expands by 357,100 (2021) net jobs. These figures exclude self-employed and independent contractors.  The Philadelphia CPI-U (consumer price index) increases by 0.5 percent (2020) and 1.5 percent (2021). The bottom of Table 1.1 displays the corresponding growth rates

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

percent (2020) and increase by 5.0 percent (2021). Those amounts exclude compensation earned by self-employed and inde- pendent contractors.  Payroll Employment contracts by 453,000 (2020, annualized basis) and expands by 309,700 (2021) net jobs. These figures exclude self-employed and independent contractors.  The Philadelphia CPI-U (consumer price index) increases by 0.5 percent (2020) and 1.5 percent (2021). The bottom of Table 1.1 displays the corresponding growth rates

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Home Values Grew 10.9% in 2020 Q4 The Federal Housing Finance Agency recently released 2020 Q4 home price index data. Pennsylvania home values grew 10.9% in 2020 Q4 compared to the same quarter of the prior year. National rate in order to achieve its goal of price stability. This metric, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE index) from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, reflects price changes of goods and services purchased by U

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

million higher in FY 25-26 than February ▪ Due to 20-21 revision and significant increase in projected Act 1 index. ▪ Projected SAWW at highest levels of Act 1 time period. November 16, 2021 8 School District Property Tax Forecast November Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Forecast, IFO (November 2021). All School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Act 1 Base Index is average of SAWW and ECI COVID-19 Act 1 Index Components: Actual and Forecast 11

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

Employment will expand by 57,700 and 54,600 net jobs.  The Philadelphia CPI-U (consumer price index) will increase by 1.6 percent and 2.0 percent. Table 1.2 displays economic trends for recent quarters based on the and revenue outlook. Recent trends include:  For the current and most recent quarter, the S&P 500 Index has recorded strong gains, which should bolster consumer confidence and spending.  The yield on the 10-year note, which is closely

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

8.6% 7.7% 10 Year Note 2.14 1.84 2.33 2.93 3.31 S&P 500 Index 5.8% 2.0% 16.6% 12.2% n.a. Note: S&P 500 Index uses average values for entire year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

6% 1.3% 2.3% Average Net Job Gains (000s) 46.7 52.2 60.4 61.8 Home Price Index 2.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% Tax revenues exceed estimate through February (+$135 million)  Strong acceleration of Some rankings are incomplete and certain taxes may be omitted: severance tax, gaming taxes Tax Foundation: state business tax climate index (see table)  Not a computation; subjective index that uses numerous metrics  States receive highest rank if tax is

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

by 57,700 and 54,600 jobs over the two years.  The Philadelphia CPI-U (consumer price index) will increase by 1.7 percent (2019) and 2.0 percent (2020). Table 1.2 displays economic trends for recent quarters based and revenue outlook. Recent trends include:  For the current and most recent quarter, the S&P 500 Index has recorded strong gains, which should bolster consumer confidence and spending.  The yield on the 10-year note, which is closely

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novak ppt.pdf

93 Dec-95 Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Coincident Index GDP Philly Fed Coincident Index PA Index vs. PA GDP Philly Fed Coincident Index PA Index vs. PA GDP -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

by “wealth effects” if the stock market is performing poorly or home values are stagnant. However, the S&P 500 Index has increased by 14.8% since July 2016. Data from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency show that median Price 3 $2.30 $2.33 $2.42 $2.39 $2.42 $2.38 $2.47 $2.46 Consumer Price Index 4 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% n.a. 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% n.a. Retail Sales 5

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

annual increase) and 2016 (1.1% through August). Pennsylvania consumers have also benefited, as the Philadelphia metro area Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) shows even weaker regional inflation (-0.1% and 0.4%, respectively). 1 Originally driven by a collapse in Price 3 $2.37 $2.24 $2.18 $2.22 $2.34 $2.25 $2.17 $2.22 Consumer Price Index 4 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% n.a. 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% n.a. Retail Sales 5

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

Monthly Trends Report 1 See Table SQ5N under the “State Quarterly Personal Income” link at http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm. 2 Capital gains income is excluded. Pennsylvania Gross Earnings - 2015 Share Growth of Total Rate Gross Earnings 100.0% Price 3 $2.04 $1.95 $1.76 $1.97 $2.13 $2.01 $1.84 $1.94 Consumer Price Index 4 0.7% 1.4% 1.0% n.a. -0.2% 0.0% 0.3% n.a. Retail Sales 5

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

not eroded by inflation. Annual COLAs are determined by the U.S. Department of Labor based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures inflation’s effect on a typical bundle of goods Price 3 $2.79 $2.64 $2.37 $2.29 $2.76 $2.56 $2.32 $2.22 Consumer Price Index 4 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% n.a. -0.1% -0.3% -0.3% n.a. Retail Sales 5

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

to strong gains related to energy, medical care and prices for other goods and services. The All Items Less Energy index increased by 2.7%. However, the All Items Less Shelter index was up 5.0%. Many analysts have noted a disconnect between the Shelter (i.e., housing) index used in the

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Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf

Nominal GDP $787.9 $960.0 21.8% Wages and Salaries $351.2 $423.0 20.4% S&P 500 Index 2,834 4,109 45.0% PA Home Value Index 226.7 327.5 44.5% FY Revenues 18-19 22-23 Growth Corporate Net Income $3.40 $6.12

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Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf

Nominal GDP $787.9 $960.0 21.8% Wages and Salaries $351.2 $423.0 20.4% S&P 500 Index 2,834 4,109 45.0% PA Home Value Index 226.7 327.5 44.5% FY Revenues 18-19 22-23 Growth Corporate Net Income $3.40 $6.12

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Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf

to the prior year. ▪ The increase in median home values has slowed, but relative to 2019 Q3, the home value index increased 40.6%, greatly reducing home affordability. Due to rapidly accelerating home prices and mortgage rates, home sales have declined 2% 5.5% CPI-U - All Items 8.1% 7.1% 6.9% 3.9% 3.9% FHFA Home Value Index 9.5% 8.3% 5.3% 5.2% 3.5% RedFin Home Sales -13.6% -24.5% -20.1% -17

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index.cfm

The Monthly Economic Update provides data and insight on current trends that impact the state economy. ... (Full Report) Act 1 Index Reaches New High Property Tax November 28, 2023 The Act 1 index limits the annual increase in school district millage rates. For FY 24-25, PDE recently certified an all-time high

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

more urban areas such as cities and commercial corridor regions. 74 For example:  Philadelphia conducted a litter index study for 2018 that found plastic bags were the fifth-most common form of litter in the city. 75 Specifically, plastic bags Pennsylvania Beautiful (2020). 74 Burns and McDonnel, “Pennsylvania Litter Research Study,” Keep Pennsylvania Beautiful (2020). 75 “2019 Litter Index Report,” City of Philadelphia Zero Waste and Litter Cabinet (2019). Litter Abatement Plastic Bag Plastic Bag Region Population Expenditures Share Litter Costs

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Newsstand_January_2020.pdf

that 25% of business tax incentives flow to a small group of firms that expand to new locations. State Leading Index Declines in Nine States Including Pennsylvania On December 31, 2019 the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its State Leading Indexes, a six-month forecast of its State Coincident Indexes for November 2019. Forty-one state coincident indexes are projected to

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MTR-2019-06.pdf

Sales 5 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% n.a. 5.9% 6.0% 7.2% 6.6% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.4 97.2 100.0 98.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.8% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.8% 6.5% 5.9% 5.1% 5.4% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2019-05.pdf

Sales 5 2.2% 2.9% 3.0% n.a. 6.0% 5.9% 6.0% 7.2% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 93.8 98.4 97.2 100.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.8% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.8% 6.5% 5.9% 5.1% 5.4% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2019-04.pdf

Sales 5 2.8% 2.2% 2.9% n.a. 7.5% 6.0% 5.9% 6.0% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 91.2 93.8 98.4 97.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.8% 6.5% 5.7% n.a. 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2019-03.pdf

Sales 5 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% n.a. 7.1% 7.5% 6.0% 5.8% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.3 91.2 93.8 98.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% FHFA House Price Index 10 7.4% 6.8% 6.5% 5.7% 6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2019-02.pdf

Sales 5 4.3% 3.7% n.a. n.a. 7.8% 7.1% 7.5% 6.0% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 97.5 98.3 91.2 93.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% FHFA House Price Index 10 7.4% 6.8% 6.5% 5.7% 6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2019-01.pdf

Sales 5 5.0% 4.3% n.a. n.a. 7.8% 7.4% 6.3% 5.9% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.6 97.5 98.3 91.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% FHFA House Price Index 10 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% n.a. 6.0% 5.3% 4.3% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2018-12.pdf

Sales 5 5.7% 5.0% 4.3% n.a. 8.2% 7.8% 7.4% 6.3% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 100.1 98.6 97.5 98.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.7% 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% 5.4% 6.0% 5.3% 4.3% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2018-11.pdf

Sales 5 6.4% 5.7% 5.0% n.a. 8.1% 8.2% 7.8% 7.4% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 96.2 100.1 98.6 97.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.7% 7.4% 6.8% 6.3% 5.2% 6.0% 5.3% 4.3% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2018-10.pdf

Sales 5 6.4% 6.4% 5.9% n.a. 7.5% 8.1% 8.2% 7.8% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 97.9 96.2 100.1 98.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.9% 7.3% 6.5% n.a. 5.4% 6.1% 4.9% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

Price 3 $2.51 $2.56 $2.48 $2.55 $2.58 $2.64 $2.58 $2.66 Consumer Price Index 4 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% n.a. 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% n.a. Retail Sales 5 4.5% 5.3% 5.4% n.a. 3.3% 3.7% 4.7% 4.5% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 100.7 98.5 95.9 94.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2018-09.pdf

Sales 5 5.7% 6.4% 6.5% n.a. 6.5% 7.5% 8.1% 8.2% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.2 97.9 96.2 100.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.7% 6.9% 7.3% 6.5% 4.5% 5.4% 6.1% 4.9% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2018-08.pdf

Sales 5 5.4% 5.7% 6.3% n.a. 5.6% 6.5% 7.5% 8.1% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.0 98.2 97.9 95.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.7% 6.9% 7.3% 6.5% 4.5% 5.4% 6.1% 4.9% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2018-07.pdf

Sales 5 4.8% 5.4% 5.9% n.a. 5.0% 5.6% 6.5% 7.5% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.8 98.0 98.2 97.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% n.a. 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

Sales 5 4.3% 4.6% 5.2% n.a. 2.5% 5.0% 5.6% 6.5% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 101.4 98.8 98.0 99.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.8% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 4.6% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2018-05.pdf

Sales 5 4.4% 4.3% 4.6% n.a. 3.6% 2.5% 5.0% 5.6% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 99.7 101.4 98.8 98.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.8% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 4.6% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

Price 3 $2.55 $2.59 $2.59 $2.73 $2.66 $2.71 $2.65 $2.79 Consumer Price Index 4 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% n.a. 0.7% 0.5% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 4.9% 4.3% 4.1% n.a. 4.5% 3.6% 2.5% 5.0% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 94.4 99.7 101.4 98.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

Price 3 $2.48 $2.55 $2.59 $2.59 $2.58 $2.66 $2.71 $2.65 Consumer Price Index 4 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% n.a. 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% n.a. Retail Sales 5 5.4% 4.9% 4.3% n.a. 4.7% 4.5% 3.6% 2.5% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 95.9 94.4 99.7 101.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

Price 3 $2.56 $2.48 $2.55 $2.59 $2.64 $2.58 $2.66 $2.71 Consumer Price Index 4 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% n.a. 0.8% 0.8% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% n.a. 3.7% 4.7% 4.5% 3.6% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.5 95.9 94.4 99.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

Price 3 $2.65 $2.51 $2.56 $2.48 $2.77 $2.58 $2.64 $2.58 Consumer Price Index 4 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% n.a. 1.1% 0.8% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 4.1% 4.5% 5.2% n.a. 3.7% 3.3% 3.7% 4.7% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 95.1 100.7 98.5 95.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

Price 3 $2.38 $2.65 $2.51 $2.56 $2.45 $2.77 $2.58 $2.64 Consumer Price Index 4 1.9% 2.2% 2.0% n.a. 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% n.a. Retail Sales 5 3.4% 4.0% 4.2% n.a. 4.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.7% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 96.8 95.1 100.7 98.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

Price 3 $2.30 $2.38 $2.65 $2.51 $2.37 $2.45 $2.77 $2.58 Consumer Price Index 4 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% n.a. 1.1% 1.4% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 3.6% 3.4% 3.9% n.a. 4.7% 4.9% 3.7% 3.3% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 93.4 96.8 95.1 100.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

Price 3 $2.35 $2.30 $2.38 $2.65 $2.41 $2.37 $2.45 $2.77 Consumer Price Index 4 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% n.a. 0.7% 1.1% 1.4% n.a. Retail Sales 5 3.9% 3.6% 3.2% n.a. 3.7% 4.7% 4.9% 3.7% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 95.1 93.4 96.8 95.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

of data. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. Source: PA Dept. of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. Annual growth of new, privately owned single-housing units authorized some new properties.) Sources: National Association of Realtors and PA Association of Realtors. 11. The annual growth rate of an index that measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

of data. Excludes transfers to or from the Enhanced Revenue Collection Account. Source: PA Dept. of Revenue. 6. A diffusion index that reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. Annual growth of new, privately owned single-housing units authorized some new properties.) Sources: National Association of Realtors and PA Association of Realtors. 11. The annual growth rate of an index that measures the average price change of residential homes with mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

Price 3 $2.33 $2.42 $2.39 $2.35 $2.38 $2.47 $2.46 $2.41 Consumer Price Index 4 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% n.a. 1.7% 1.3% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 5.1% 4.7% 4.4% n.a. 4.3% 2.6% 2.4% 5.0% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 96.9 97.0 97.1 95.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

Price 3 $2.35 $2.30 $2.33 $2.42 $2.49 $2.42 $2.38 $2.47 Consumer Price Index 4 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% n.a. 1.9% 2.1% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 4.7% 5.1% 5.4% n.a. 3.0% 4.2% 4.3% 2.6% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.5 96.3 96.9 97.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

Price 3 $2.25 $2.35 $2.30 $2.33 $2.37 $2.49 $2.42 $2.38 Consumer Price Index 4 2.1% 2.5% 2.7% n.a. 1.7% n.a. 2.1% n.a. Retail Sales 5 4.2% 4.7% 5.4% n.a. 2.3% 3.0% 4.2% 4.3% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.2 98.5 96.3 96.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

Price 3 $2.18 $2.25 $2.35 $2.30 $2.31 $2.37 $2.49 $2.42 Consumer Price Index 4 1.7% 2.1% 2.5% n.a. 1.5% 1.7% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 3.8% 4.1% 4.6% n.a. 2.8% 2.3% 3.0% 4.2% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 93.8 98.2 98.5 96.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

Price 3 $2.25 $2.18 $2.25 $2.35 $2.26 $2.31 $2.37 $2.49 Consumer Price Index 4 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% n.a. 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% n.a. Retail Sales 5 3.2% 3.8% 4.1% n.a. 1.9% 2.8% 2.3% 3.0% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 87.2 93.8 98.2 98.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

Price 3 $2.22 $2.25 $2.18 $2.25 $2.22 $2.26 $2.31 $2.37 Consumer Price Index 4 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% n.a. 0.8% 1.3% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 2.6% 3.2% 3.7% n.a. 0.9% 1.9% 2.8% 2.3% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 91.2 87.2 93.8 98.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

Price 3 $2.18 $2.22 $2.25 $2.18 $2.17 $2.22 $2.26 $2.31 Consumer Price Index 4 1.1% 1.5% 1.6%. n.a. 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% n.a. Retail Sales 5 2.5% 2.6% 3.3% n.a. -1.4% 0.9% 1.9% 2.8% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 89.8 91.2 87.2 93.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

Price 3 $2.24 $2.18 $2.22 $2.25 $2.25 $2.17 $2.22 $2.26 Consumer Price Index 4 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% n.a. 0.2% 0.4% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% n.a. 0.0% -1.4% 0.8% 1.8% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 90.0 89.8 91.2 87.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

Price 3 $2.27 $2.37 $2.24 $2.18 $2.30 $2.34 $2.25 $2.17 Consumer Price Index 4 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% n.a. 0.4% 0.1% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 2.3% 2.7% 2.5% n.a. 4.1% 0.8% -0.3% n.a. Consumer Sentiment Index 6 94.7 93.5 90.0 89.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

Price 3 $1.97 $2.11 $2.27 $2.37 $1.94 $2.13 $2.30 $2.34 Consumer Price Index 4 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% n.a. 0.5% 0.6% n.a. n.a. Retail Sales 5 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% n.a. 5.9% 3.9% 4.1% 0.8% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 91.0 89.0 94.7 93.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

Price 3 $1.76 $1.97 $2.11 $2.27 $1.84 $1.94 $2.13 $2.30 Consumer Price Index 4 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% n.a. 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% n.a. Retail Sales 5 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% n.a. 4.4% 5.9% 3.9% 4.1% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 91.7 91.0 89.0 94.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

Price 3 $1.95 $1.76 $1.97 $2.11 $2.01 $1.84 $1.94 $2.13 Consumer Price Index 4 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% n.a. 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% n.a. Retail Sales 5 2.4% 3.1% 2.8% n.a. 3.9%. 4.4% 5.9% 3.9% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 92.0 91.7 91.0 89.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

Price 3 $2.16 $2.04 $1.95 $1.76 $2.20 $2.13 $2.01 $1.84 Consumer Price Index 4 0.4% 0.7% 1.3% n.a. -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% n.a. Retail Sales 5 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% n.a. 3.0% 3.8% 3.9%. 4.4% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 91.3 92.6 92.0 90.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

Price 3 $2.29 $2.16 $2.04 $1.95 $2.22 $2.20 $2.13 $2.01 Consumer Price Index 4 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% n.a. -0.5% -0.4% -0.2% n.a. Retail Sales 5 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% n.a. 2.9% 3.0% 3.8%. 3.9% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 90.0 91.3 92.6 92.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

Price 3 $2.64 $2.37 $2.29 $2.16 $2.56 $2.32 $2.22 $2.20 Consumer Price Index 4 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% n.a. -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% n.a. Retail Sales 5 2.2% 2.3% 2.0% n.a. 3.9% 2.5% 2.9% 3.0% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 91.9 87.2 90.0 91.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

Price 3 $2.80 $2.79 $2.64 $2.37 $2.78 $2.76 $2.56 $2.32 Consumer Price Index 4 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% n.a. 0.2% -0.1% -0.3% n.a. Retail Sales 5 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% n.a. 3.3% 3.2% 3.9%. 2.5% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 96.2 93.1 91.9 87.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

Price 3 $2.72 $2.80 $2.79 $2.64 $2.71 $2.78 $2.76 $2.56 Consumer Price Index 4 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% n.a. 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% n.a. Retail Sales 5 2.0% 1.9% 2.2% n.a. 2.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.9%. Consumer Sentiment Index 6 90.7 96.2 93.1 91.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

Price 3 $2.47 $2.72 $2.80 $2.79 $2.49 $2.71 $2.78 $2.76 Consumer Price Index 4 -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% n.a. 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% n.a. Retail Sales 5 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% n.a. 3.6% 2.2% 3.3% 3.2% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 95.9 90.7 96.1 93.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. New Building Permits

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf

Accelerate in October This week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released October data for the Producer Price Index (PPI, final demand) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Based on the BLS description, the PPI is an index that measures the change in selling prices received by

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

4% 2.6% 3.8% 2.5% 2.8% 4.3% 3.6% 2.8% Financial Metrics S&P 500 Index 17.5% 4.9% 3.0% 16.9% 6.2% -1.1% 0.8% 11.1% 10-Year Note (level) 2.54 2.14 1.84 2.33 3.00 n.a. n.a. n.a. Home Price Index 5.2% 5.5% 6.1% 5.8% 4.9% 7.9% -3.1% 5.8% Note: AAGR is average

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

2.3% Personal Income 6.2% 5.0% 1.1% 5.2% 4.4% 3.5% 4.6% Consumer Price Index 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.5% Domestic Corporate Profits 3.1% 15.0% 1.7% 6.2% -2.2% -1.5% 10.4% S&P 500 Index 12.3% 8.7% 19.2% 17.2% 4.8% 3.2% n.a. Annualized or Year-Over-Year Growth

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

2.3% Personal Income 6.2% 5.0% 1.1% 5.2% 4.4% 3.5% 4.6% Consumer Price Index 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.5% Domestic Corporate Profits 3.1% 15.0% 1.7% 6.2% -2.2% -1.5% 10.4% S&P 500 Index 12.3% 8.7% 19.2% 17.2% 4.8% 3.2% n.a. Annualized or Year-Over-Year Growth

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SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsx

Figure 4.1 Index Values for Figure 4.1 Fiscal Personal Sales School Regional Nominal Year Income and Use Property CPI GSP 1993-94 59 2.00 2012-13 2.13 1.83 2.46 1.61 2.06 Notes: 1 Personal Income Tax index is rate adjusted for the 2004 rate increase. 2 Sales and Use Tax index prior to any transfers. FY 2010-

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Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf

4.3% 4.3% Philadelphia CPI-U 6.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% Housing Market FHFA Home Value Index 5.2% 5.3% 8.1% -- RedFin Home Sales -20.1% -17.6% -17.5% -5.9% 30-Yr Mortgage 13.2% 14.2% -- US Credit Cards 13.8% 11.4% 10.7% 7.9% Wealth Metrics PA Home Value Index 5.2% 5.3% 8.1% 7.6% S&P 500 Index -9.3% 17.6% 19.6% 25.8%

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

Growth Rate 2019.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 2022.1 2022.2 to 2022.1 S&P 500 Index 42.8% 32.4% 30.1% 19.2% 0.7% 67.9% 30-Yr Mortgage (rate) 3.0 3.0 3.1 4.7 5.3 -- PA Home Price Index 16.5 14.8 13.4 14.5 -- 35.3 Rent – Philadelphia 4.0 7.8 10.8 11.9

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

to measure the reduced purchasing power of a fixed minimum wage is the growth in the consumer price index (CPI-U) during the relevant time period. The CPI-U is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is an index that reflects the price for a basket of goods and services typically purchased by consumers. The BLS also publishes detail for specific

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PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf

68% Notes: PIT is personal income tax. CEC is Customer Experience Center. Key Metrics to Monitor 1 This is an indexed measure and includes different tax types. As an example, the PIT required time frame is 75 days. 2 All enforcement Errors can occur with incorrect/incomplete information from tax filers or typographical errors by DOR staff. 5 This is an indexed measure and includes different tax types. As an example, the PIT required time frame is 75 days. 4 Returns processed

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

total number of program participants in both tiers declined from 282,000 to 240,000 because income thresholds are not indexed to inflation. While the program also lost providers (pharmacies) over the same period (2,993 in 2016 to 2,933 age 65+ that reported a fall in the past 12 months, reported poor mental health or have a body mass index greater than 30 (obesity or greater category) all increased. The share of those residents with four or more chronic conditions

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

2.3 percent (2018) and 2.2 percent (2019).  The Philadelphia and Pittsburgh CPI-U (consumer price index) will increase by 1.8 percent (2018) and 2.2 percent (2019).  Wages and Salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents will increase 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the consumer price index, payroll employment and income trends that motivate revenue projections. Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are by the IFO. 2015 2016 2017 2018

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdf

pay to retain a low-rate mortgage. ▪ First-time home buyers priced out of the market. The NAR home affordability index is at its lowest level since 1985. The index includes the impact of current home prices and mortgage rates. ▪ Delayed household formation and expansion. The inability to purchase a

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdf

June Inflation Decelerates Rapidly This update uses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All Items Philadelphia CPI-U is published year-over-year): All Items CPI-U (100%) The CPI-U for the Philadelphia metro region. For June 2023, the index grew 3.1%, a notable deceleration from April (4.7%). Published bi-monthly. All Items Less Energy (93.1%) Excludes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

6.6% On August 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the U.S. city average consumer price index (CPI-U) data for July. For All Items, the index rose by 5.4% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. The All Items Less Shelter category, which excludes housing

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

2.3 percent (2018) and 2.2 percent (2019).  The Philadelphia and Pittsburgh CPI-U (consumer price index) will both increase by 1.8 percent (2018) and 2.2 percent (2019).  Wages and Salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents will 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the consumer price index, payroll employment and income trends that motivate revenue projections. Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are by the IFO and may be revised

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

0% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 0.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% Financial Metrics S&P 500 Index (avg level) 5.8% 2.0% 16.6% 12.2% -1.0% -- -- -- -- -- S&P 500 Index (Dec level) -0.7% 8.4% 19.8% -0.4% 2.2% 10-Year Note (level) 2.14 1.84

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2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf

4.3% 4.3% Philadelphia CPI-U 6.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% Housing Market FHFA Home Value Index 5.2% 5.3% 8.1% -- RedFin Home Sales -20.1% -17.6% -17.5% -5.9% 30-Yr Mortgage 13.2% 14.2% -- US Credit Cards 13.8% 11.4% 10.7% 7.9% Wealth Metrics PA Home Value Index 5.2% 5.3% 8.1% 7.6% S&P 500 Index -9.3% 17.6% 19.6% 25.8%

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

four or five years, with the amounts generally determined using a formula based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index. The most recent cost-of-living adjustment was enacted in 2002. The cost associated with the provision of the ad period of time, both PSERS and SERS are far less likely to be sued under the current structure by members. Indeed, individual members cannot pursue a claim, absent a showing that any such loss has actually impaired their ability to receive

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

the difference between the current SP parameters and thresh- olds and inflation-adjusted values based on the Philadelphia Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) through 2021. If the comparison is made to the year of enactment (1974), then thereafter, the minimum wage would increase by an annual cost-of- living adjustment based on the re- gional Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). For tipped workers, employers must also pay workers the state minimum, re- gardless of

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

thereafter, the minimum wage would increase by an annual cost-of-living adjustment based on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI- U) for the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland region. For tipped workers, the proposal does not employment. 41 Wages include the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis adjustment for residence. Excludes self-employed and inde- pendent contractors. Includes bonuses and some tips. 42 These data are from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Minimum Wage | Page

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

5% 4.3% 3.7% Net New Jobs (000s) 53.1 54.7 48.2 51.4 FHFA Home Price Index 4.9% 4.8% 5.3% n.a. Zillow Home Sales (nsa) -1.4% -0.1% 1.5% 6.3% 30% -35% 14% 8% -25% 20% U.S. Corporate Profits -10% -11% -14% 37% -3% -25% 20% S&P 500 Index 4% -39% 24% 10% 20% -7% n.a. Note: Net Profits include income reported by independent contractors, sole proprietors, partners

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RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdf

also displays corresponding YOY growth rates for (1) Pennsylvania average hourly earnings and (2) the Philadelphia metro region employment cost index (ECI) for wages and salaries (excludes benefits). These two labor compensation metrics are for private sector workers only and pertain movement between sectors. • The two labor compensation metrics shown are for wages or earnings only, but BLS also publishes separate indexes for health insurance and total benefits. PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to Inflation Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2023

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PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf

20. Estimated by IFO thereafter. For more detail on forecast, see “School District Property Tax Forecast” (Nov 2021). Act 1 Index Components: Actual and Forecast 6 1.9% 3.4% 4.3% 4.3% 3.6% 2.4% 4.7% 5 17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 Base Index SAWW ECI Average 16-17 to 21-22 SAWW: 2.5% ECI: 2.6% COVID job losses Sources: Index and

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Note: Includes Current and Interim, Act 1 Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Forecast, IFO (February 2020). $13.0 b $15.3 billion total $9.1 billion homeowner $18.6 b Act 1 Base Index is average of SAWW and ECI Homeowner portion is ~58% of total paid Replacing Homeowner School Property Tax Personal income

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

1% 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% Pittsburgh CPI-U 0.7% 1.6% 2.2% n.a. House Price Index 2.5% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% Mid-Atlantic Gasoline -29.2% -10.5% 14.8% 15.0% All Note: Net job gains exclude self-employed. Values for 2018 reflect data for the first quarter of 2018 (house price index and consumer debt), data through May (gasoline) or are forecasts by the IFO (all other). House Price Index for purchase-

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

6% 1.3% 1.8% Pittsburgh CPI-U 1.3% 0.7% 1.6% 2.2% n.a. House Price Index 2.3% 2.5% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% Philadelphia MSA 1.7% 2.5% 6.1% 6.7% Note: Net job gains exclude self-employed. Values for 2018 reflect data for the first quarter of 2018 (house price index) or are forecasts by the IFO (all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

6% 1.3% 1.8% Pittsburgh CPI-U 1.3% 0.7% 1.6% 2.2% n.a. House Price Index 2.3% 2.5% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% Philadelphia MSA 1.7% 2.5% 6.1% 6.7% Note: Net job gains exclude self-employed. Values for 2018 reflect data for the first quarter of 2018 (house price index) or are forecasts by the IFO (all other). House Price Index for purchase-only transactions. Sources: U.S. Bureau of

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

based on recent trends in the residential housing market. The residential tax base is equal to Pennsylvania quarterly purchase-only index multiplied by Pennsylvania existing home sales. Although the model does not directly incorporate an economic variable to represent the business transformation with fiscal year inheritance tax revenues as the dependent variable and nominal national GDP and the S&P 500 Index as the independent variables. The regression also in- cludes a dummy variable for the former estate tax. 6 The regression

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

fiscal year inheritance tax revenues as the dependent variable and nominal national GDP and the S&P 500 Index as the independent variables. The regression also in- cludes a dummy variable for the former estate tax. 5 The regression uses historical uses a log transformation, quarterly data and three explanatory variables: wage and business net income, the housing price index and certain business purchases that are subject to 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Non-Motor $7,892 $8,167

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

fiscal year inheritance tax revenues as the dependent variable and nominal national GDP and the S&P 500 Index as the independent variables. The regression also in- cludes a dummy variable for the former estate tax. 5 The regression uses historical uses a log transformation, quarterly data and three explanatory variables: wage and business net income, the housing price index and certain business purchases that are subject to sales tax (e.g., computers, software and communications equipment). 8 The motor vehicle regression

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

5% 4.3% 3.7% Net New Jobs (000s) 53.1 54.7 48.2 51.4 FHFA Home Price Index 4.9% 4.8% 5.3% n.a. Zillow Home Sales (nsa) -1.4% -0.1% 1.5% 6.3% 30% -35% 14% 8% -20% 13% U.S. Corporate Profits -10% -11% -14% 37% -3% -20% 13% S&P 500 Index 5% -39% 24% 10% 20% -2% n.a. Note: Net Profits include income reported by independent contractors, sole proprietors, partners

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

confidence in general busi- ness conditions across a variety of industries in New York State. The current general business conditions index fell 34 points to -21.5. This was the largest one-month drop in the survey’s history and the index’s lowest level since 2009. Manufacturing firms' expectations for business conditions six months from now also fell. The index for

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdf

methodologies, this rental price surge is not yet reflected in the official data used to compute the regional Consumer Price Index (see graph). The latest data also suggest that surging rents have not yet translated into more evictions. A recent article might be delayed due to backlogs at some courts. Monthly Economic Update October 2021 Note: Orange line reflects Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth for Rent of Primary Residence from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Blue line reflects rent growth

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf

Philadelphia Metro Region Inflation Surges Past U.S. Average The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April. For the U.S., the data show that the All Items CPI-U increased 8.3% 19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21 Aug-21 Dec-21 Apr-22 YOY Growth in Consumer Price Index April 2022 U.S. 8.3% Philadelphia 8.4% Monthly Data Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdf

Housing Costs Apply Pressure to Overall Inflation This update uses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All Items Philadelphia CPI-U is published 1% n.a. Wages and Salaries 11 9.5% 9.5% 5.9% 5.9% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 12 12.7% 9.6% 8.3% 4.8% n.a. Monthly Data Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

61.2 70.4 Philly CPI-U 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 2.1% PA Home Price Index 2.2% 3.1% 3.8% 3.6% n.a. Mid-Atlantic Gasoline -18.0% -15.1% -13.0% 6 Q1 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

Items Less Shelter 67.0 1.4 6.7 7.2 Note: CPI-U weight is relative importance of sub-index. Some series are omitted so weights do not sum to 100%. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Note: Includes Current and Interim, Act 1 Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Forecast, IFO (November 2021

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Note: Includes Current and Interim, Act 1 Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Forecast, IFO (February 2020). $13.0 b $15.3 billion total $9.1 billion homeowner $18.6 b Act 1 Base Index is average of SAWW and ECI Homeowner portion is ~58% of total paid School District Revenues: FY 2017-18 February

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Tax-Foundation-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

Not applicable (no corporate income tax) West Virginia Conforms to federal treatment Source: Tax Foundation, 2020 State Business Tax Climate Index. PENNSYLVANIA’S TAX CODE CONTAINS BIASES AGAINST CAPITAL INVESTMENT Treatment of Capital Investment Pennsylvania and Select Regional Competitors (2019) Section 1 million Ohio n.a. $1 million West Virginia 100% $1 million Source: Tax Foundation, 2020 State Business Tax Climate Index. PENNSYLVANIA HAS ONE OF THE HIGHEST CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATES IN THE U.S. PENNSYLVANIA’S PROPERTY TAX ADMINISTRATION IS

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SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf

and immediate reversion to the baseline return in all future years. This is a notable scenario because major stock market indexes have declined significantly to date in 2022. For the Economic and Budget Outlook, the IFO requested a simulation from SERS that assumed a -10% net investment return for 2022, and through November 30, the S&P 500 Index was down 14.4% from the end of 2021. The significant investment loss increases employer contributions by $8.65 billion

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REU-2020-02.pdf

Sales 5 3.5% 4.0% 4.4% n.a. 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 6.5% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 96.8 99.3 99.8 101.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% FHFA House Price Index 10 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.9% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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REU-2020-01.pdf

Sales 5 3.8% 3.5% 4.1% n.a. 6.4% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 95.5 96.8 99.3 99.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% FHFA House Price Index 10 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% n.a. 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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REU-2019-12.pdf

Sales 5 4.0% 3.9% 3.5% n.a. 5.2% 6.4% 5.1% 5.1% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 93.2 95.5 96.8 99.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% 5.5% 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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REU-2019-11.pdf

Sales 5 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% n.a. 4.4% 5.2% 6.4% 5.1% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 89.8 93.2 95.5 96.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.0% 5.2% 5.0% 4.7% 5.5% 5.3% 4.9% 5.0% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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REU-2019-10.pdf

Sales 5 3.3% 3.7% 3.9% n.a. 4.9% 4.4% 5.2% 6.4% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.4 89.8 93.2 95.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 10 6.0% 5.4% 5.0% n.a. 5.5% 5.5% 4.9% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdf

the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show a rapid deceleration of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Philadelphia metro region. In June 2022, year-over-year (YOY) inflation peaked at 8.8%, but since Brief | July 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 High rates of inflation also impact public pensions because they are not indexed to inflation. The second table illustrates the impact for the average SERS or PSERS beneficiary who was retired in 2020

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RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf

that results from reduced consumption, inflationary factors also affect DOT’s buying power. Since 2018, the department’s Bid Price Index (BPI) has increased by 5.1% per annum. 9 The BPI is DOT’s inflation index based on contractor’s cost of materials (e.g., structural steel, structural concrete) used for heavy road and bridge construction

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RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf

Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 2021 Q3 data for the U.S. employer cost index (ECI, wage compensation only) and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published September data for total wages paid rates of inflation will not prove transitory. 1 See https://www.bls.gov/ect/ and https://apps.bea.gov/itable/index.cfm. Annual Growth Rates: Pennsylvania Wages and CPI-U -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2007

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RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf

real value of those gains has been eliminated by economy-wide inflation as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). To examine this issue for Pennsylvania workers, Table 1 reproduces the methodology used by the BLS using Pennsylvania impact is the same as a $17,450 lump sum tax on benefits because the payments are fixed and not indexed to inflation. The analysis assumes that higher prices are permanent, and do not reverse in the future, which generally holds

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

to the approval of the mayor, may increase retirees’ retire- ment pay based upon the increase in the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers. Disability Benefits. A member who becomes permanently disabled with at least 15 years of service, but receiving a pension or retirement allowance. The cost-of-living allowance cannot exceed the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index from the year in which the retiree retired and cannot cause the total police pension or retirement allowance to exceed

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

growth rates for personal income, sales-use, and school property taxes as well as a weighted average Pennsylvania Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Pennsylvania nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP, includes inflation). Since FY 2004-05, the state economy has expanded by vendor discount, and is prior to any transfers. Values for FY 2018-19 are projections by the IFO. Act 1 Index -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

95 100 12.Feb.2015 17 Consumer Sentiment Surges Jan 2009 Jan 2015 June 2014 June 2008 UM Consumer Sentiment Index aligns exactly with gasoline price drop Average Gasoline Price Decline Year-Over-Year: • Average Price Decline: Jul to Dec 2014 Net Profits. 12.Feb.2015 19 Potential Tax Revenue Impact Latest Forecast Calls for Low Inflation in 2015. • Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Philadelphia metro region. • Due to low gasoline prices. Low utility prices too. • Also, strong dollar makes imports cheaper

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

9 62.5 57.0 Philadelphia CPI-U -0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 2.2% Home Price Index 2.5% 4.0% 4.6% -- -- Mid-Atlantic Gasoline -29.2% -10.5% 14.8% 8.7% -- Note: Job gains 4 71.2 71.3 Philadelphia CPI-U 2.1% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% Home Price Index 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% -- Mid-Atlantic Gasoline 25.8% 8.5% 14.2% 12.4% 10

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Presentation-2019-04-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

Philadelphia CPI-U 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% FHFA Home Price Index 4.3% 5.5% 6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% n.a. Growth Rate or Gains U.S US CPI-U 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% FHFA Home Price Index 6.7% 6.8% 7.4% 6.9% 6.5% 5.7% n.a. Non-Financial Dom Corp Profits 0

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Presentation-2018-10-House-Financial-Rescue-Caucus.pdf

CPI-U (YOY) 2.1% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 1.6% 1.7% FHFA Home Price Index (YOY) 4.0% 4.6% 4.5% 5.4% 6.1% 4.9% n.a. Growth Rate or Change U CPI-U (YOY) 2.6% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% FHFA Home Price Index (YOY) 6.4% 6.7% 6.7% 6.9% 7.3% 6.5% n.a. Non-Financial Dom Corp Profits

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

5.1% 3.0% City 3.3% 3.0% All Local Units 4.2% 3.0% Economics Philadelphia House Price Index -0.4% 2.0% Pittsburgh House Price Index 1.6% 3.6% Nominal State GDP 3.2% 3.3% Sources: Dept. of Comm. and Economic Development, U.S

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

68.9 n.a. Philly CPI-U 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 2.1% 1.1% PA Home Price Index 3.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% n.a. Mid-Atlantic Gasoline -15.1% -13.0% 6.1% 25 Q2 is an estimate by IFO based on withholding tax revenues. Corporate domestic profits exclude the Federal Reserve. Home price index represents increase in average market value of existing homes. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf

PSP Metric Highlights PSP covered areas have lower crime rates and higher clearance rates than Non-PSP covered areas ▪ Crime index offense rate per 100,000: PSP, 752 | Non-PSP LEAs, 1,888 ▪ Crime index offense clearance rate: PSP, 41.5% | Non-PSP LEAs, 28.9% ▪ Statewide violent crime rate declined 23% since 2010 | Forcible

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

is economic impact payment. 2021 Q2 data for S&P 500 as of June 11 2021. 2021 Q2 home price index is an estimate based on median increase in April home sales price. Growth rates at far right are cumulative growth rates since 2019 Q2. 2019.2 = 1.0 S&P 500 PA home price index +46% +24% 1 st EIP 3 rd EIP Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2021-22 June 17, 2021 10 Initial Estimate

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf

transformation with fiscal year inheritance tax revenues as the dependent variable and nominal national GDP and the S&P 500 Index as the independent variables. The regression also in- cludes a dummy variable for the former estate tax. 7 The regression any calendar year ending in an odd number. The adjustment is based on the percentage change in the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI- U) for the 24-month period ending on January 31 prior to the increase. The

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

transformation with fiscal year inheritance tax revenues as the dependent variable and nominal national GDP and the S&P 500 Index as the independent variables. The regression also in- cludes a dummy variable for the former estate tax. 6 The regression any calendar year ending in an odd number. The adjustment is based on the percentage change in the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI- U) for the 24-month period ending on January 31 prior to the increase. Therefore

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NewsStand_2019_September.pdf

and incarceration as potential fac- tors. Pennsylvania Claims Title of Most Diverse State Economy Bloomberg recently released an Economic Diversity Index for the nation, based on gross domestic product (GDP) by industry and government. A diverse economy helps insulate states from large economic swings when one industry has an economic downturn. Pennsylvania ranked first in the index, with Texas and Colorado ranked second and third, respectively. Border state ranks were as follows: New Jersey (21st), Ohio (22nd

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

Increase by 5.0% in 2019 Q1 On May 28, the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) released the housing price index for 2019 Q1. For Pennsylvania, the first quarter non-seasonally adjusted purchase-only index increased by 5.0% on a year-over- year basis. Nearly all states bordering Pennsylvania saw smaller increases in existing

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

2019. Home Price Growth Slows in 2018 Q3 On November 27, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released purchase-only index data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylvania, seasonally adjusted data show that third quarter home prices grew by 1.8% on 2018 - National News U.S. Housing Market in Third Largest Boom Based on data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a December 7 article written by Professor Robert Shiller notes that the U.S. is currently in the third largest

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MTR-2019-09.pdf

Sales 5 3.4% 3.3% 3.6% n.a. 6.6% 4.9% 4.4% 4.0% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 98.2 98.4 89.8 93.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.4% 6.0% 5.4% 5.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.5% 4.9% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2019-08.pdf

Sales 5 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% n.a. 7.2% 6.6% 4.9% 4.4% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 100.0 98.2 98.4 89.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.4% 6.0% 5.4% 5.0% 4.8% 5.5% 5.5% 4.9% INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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MTR-2019-07.pdf

Sales 5 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% n.a. 6.0% 7.2% 6.6% 4.9% Consumer Sentiment Index 6 97.2 100.0 98.2 98.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 4 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% FHFA House Price Index 10 6.5% 5.9% 5.1% n.a. 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% n.a. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf

efforts. Used Car Prices See Strong Gains in August The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released national consumer price index (CPI-U) data for August 2020. For all items less energy, the CPI-U increased 1.7% since the prior 9% n.a. Wages and Salaries 9 4.6% 3.4% 4.6% 1.8% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 10 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% Monthly Data May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf

8% n.a. Wages and Salaries 11 8.4% 4.9% 6.6% 6.2% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 12 9.5% 8.3% 5.3% 5.2% n.a. Monthly Data Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep- 19.6% 8.3% 10-Year Note 15 3.82 3.96 4.09 4.57 4.88 Leading Economic Index (LEI) 16 106.1 105.8 105.4 104.6 103.9 Quarterly Data 2022.3 2022.4 2023.1

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdf

0% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 10.0% 9.5% 9.6% 8.1% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 14.6% 12.9% 9.6% 8.1% n.a. Monthly Data Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar- 9.3% 0.9% 10-Year Note 14 3.88 3.53 3.92 3.49 3.45 Leading Economic Index (LEI) 15 110.5 110.3 110.0 108.6 107.5 Quarterly Data 2022.1 2022.2 2022.3

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdf

0% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 10.0% 9.5% 9.6% 8.1% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 14.6% 12.7% 9.6% 8.3% 4.8% Monthly Data Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr- 0.9% 1.2% 10-Year Note 14 3.53 3.92 3.49 3.45 3.64 Leading Economic Index (LEI) 15 110.3 110.0 108.6 107.5 106.7 Quarterly Data 2022.1 2022.2 2022.3

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdf

out of Pennsylvania to states that have production and refining operations. Based on data from the Philadelphia metro Consumer Price Index (CPI), gasoline purchases comprise 3.0% of total purchases in the CPI basket (includes rent imputations to homeowners). That share 4% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 1.0% 12.6% 9.5% 8.0% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 11.8% 16.4% 14.8% 13.3% 14.5% Monthly Data Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

Non-Housing CPI-U up 6.7% On July 13, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released consumer price index data for metro regions. For June, the Philadelphia metro region CPI-U (All Items) increased by 4.9% from the 3% 17.9% Wages and Salaries 10 2.2% -6.3% -1.0% 1.5% 3.3% FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 4.7% 8.4% 11.0% 11.9% Monthly Data Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf

Philadelphia Consumer Inflation Accelerates in December On January 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the month of December for the U.S. and various metro regions. For the U.S., the 5% 2.6% Wages and Salaries 10 -0.7% 1.8% 2.2% 11.9% 9.9% FHFA House Price Index 11 8.4% 11.2% 12.4% 16.6% 14.7% Monthly Data Aug-21 Sept-21 Oct-21 Nov-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf

minimal employment loss during the pandemic. Prices for Household Appliances and Used Cars Increase Dramatically The December Philadelphia Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased 1.1% over the prior year (not seasonally adjusted 1% 9.6% Wages and Salaries 10 3.2% 4.3% 2.2% -6.2% -0.7% FHFA House Price Index 11 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf

8 Natural Gas (Henry Hub) Oct $2.24 $2.29 $5.47 2.2% 138.9% 9 S&P 500 Index Oct 3,015 3,328 4,461 10.4% 34.0% 10 Home Price - Philly ($000s) Q3 $256.2 $286 8% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 -0.7% 1.8% 2.2% 10.9% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 8.3% 11.1% 12.2% 16.4% 14.5% Monthly Data Jul-21 Aug-21 Sept-21 Oct-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdf

5% 5.0% Wages and Salaries 10 8.3% 10.0% 9.5% 9.6% 8.1% FHFA House Price Index 11 13.4% 14.6% 12.9% 9.6% 8.1% Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb- 9.2% -12.8% 10-Year Note 14 3.70 3.88 3.53 3.92 3.41 Leading Economic Index (LEI) 15 113.5 110.5 110.3 110.0 n.a. Quarterly Data 2021.4 2022.1 2022.2

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdf

5% 5.0% Wages and Salaries 10 8.3% 10.0% 9.5% 9.6% 8.1% FHFA House Price Index 11 13.4% 14.6% 12.9% 9.6% 8.1% Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb- 9.2% -9.3% 10-Year Note 14 3.70 3.88 3.53 3.92 3.49 Leading Economic Index (LEI) 15 113.5 110.5 110.3 110.0 108.6 Quarterly Data 2021.4 2022.1 2022.2

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Sources: Yahoo Finance and Factset. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% S&P 500 Index CY 2016 S&P 500 Index +2.9% Dividends +4.1% S&P 500 Dividend Payments Revenue Outlook 25.Jan.2017 10 25.Jan.2017 11

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Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf

Taxable Exempt Exempt Exempt Exempt Total Taxable 14 39 2 37 7 4 4 4 Source: State Business Tax Climate Index, Tax Foundation, 2019. Table 4 Sales Tax Base Medical Landscape Repair Real Estate Parking Dry Clean Fitness Barber Veterinary State Taxable 3 20 24 1 17 24 22 5 6 Table 4 Sales Tax Base Source: State Business Tax Climate Index, Tax Foundation, 2019. Income Other All Tax Federal Net Return State Rank Tax Taxes Receipts Spending Return Ratio Kentucky 1

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

Corporate Profits -20.5% 11.7% 5.3% 29.2% 70.4% 24.7% Feb 24 11 S&P 500 Index 0.3% 11.9% 12.7% 26.9% 42.8% 32.4% 30.1% 12 PA Home Price Index 4.6% 8.4% 11.2% 12.4% 16.6% 14.7% Feb 22 Pennsylvania Economics Notes: All growth rates

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

the economy added 200,000 jobs. Consumers reflect the improving labor market in their outlook. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment increased for the fourth straight month in December and many consumers attributed their improved outlook to positive other expenditures are extrapolated from the base appropriation year using a general demographic growth factor and the Pennsylvania consumer price index (CPI). Department of Public Welfare Reimbursements for Medicaid services comprise a significant portion of General Fund expenditures made through the

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HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf

2.2% 2.9% 2.7% Wages-Salaries 5.1% 2.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% Consumer Price Index 0.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 10 Year Note 2.14 1.84 2.33 2 1 60.4 50.1 Philadelphia CPI-U 0.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% Home Price Index 6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% --- Natural Gas Production 10.1% 10.1% 18.6% 17.8% 14

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 School Property Tax Act 1 Base Index Note: Includes Current and Interim, Act 1 Allocations and delinquent taxes. Source: School District Property Tax Forecast, IFO (February 2021). $13.0 b Act 1 Base Index is average of SAWW and ECI Homeowner portion is ~58% of total paid $18.2 b COVID-19 Impact School

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BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf

a community with low property values and low average income levels the reducing factor of the Local Effort Capacity Index has negative effect on the distribution of BEF to communities in need. Avon Grove SD Part II-First Section-Line 2 the lowest tax base in all three counties our District reaches. We do increase taxes, at least, to the index each year. Many families are on fixed incomes or are renting, which makes it difficult to continue to complete our maintenance

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Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf

2012-13, reduced the number of exceptions a school district could invoke to increase millage rates above their Act 1 index. 1 After implementation of Act 25, exceptions were only allowed to be used for pension and special education spending and districts that would have used the exception instead raised property taxes relatively more within the bounds of the Act 1 Index. If you have any further questions regarding this letter, please do not hesitate to contact my office (717- 230-8293

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Pensions

to allow for counties to approve cost of living adjustments up to, but not more than, the cost-of-living index percentage. Current language only allows for the increases to only be at the level of the calculated cost-of-living index. ... read more SB 423 Summary • Return to Service 0410 Ward Would allow for SERS annuitants returning to service as part-

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

Appendix | Page 25 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule Appendix | Page 26 Sources “2016 State Technology and Science Index: Sustaining America’s Innovation Economy,” Milken Institute (2016). “2019 Annual Report,” Department of Business Economic Development & Tourism (2019). “2020 Essential

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

requires the Act 48 of 2017 is the Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Efficiency Act. The act requires the Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review tax credits based on a five-year schedule determined jointly by the Secretary of

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

Payroll jobs include full- and part-time jobs and do not include self-employed individuals, sole proprietors or inde- pendent contractors. Number of Jobs Share of All Jobs Number of Jobs Share of All Jobs Number of Jobs Share of All

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

America and Nowak Metro Finance Lab. “The Research and Development Tax Credit: An Evaluation of Program Performance,” Pennsylvania Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (January 2020). “The Rise of Innovation Districts: A New Geography of Innovation in America,” Katz, Bruce and Julie Wag-

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

If projects that receive state funds would not have moved forward without the tax credit, then those projects indeed leverage federal monies if a federal tax credit is also used. However, if those projects would have occurred regardless of the state

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

down and parking, aircraft rental, aircraft maintenance, flight instruction, etc.” See http://www.faa.gov/airports/resources/advisory_circulars/index.cfm/go/ document.information/ documentNumber/150_5190-7. Independent Fiscal Office Page 9 IV. Static Revenue Impact from SUT Exemption for Aircraft This

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State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdf

by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the general definition is as follows: “Regional price parities (RPPs) are price indexes that measure geographic price level differences for one period in time within the United States. For example, if the RPP

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State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf

three factors: (1) most counties reassess properties infrequently, (2) the cap on millage rate increases due to the Act 1 Index and (3) the influx of federal stimulus funds. Tax Type Rank ATR Rank ATR Rank ATR Personal Income 19 2

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Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf

and bracket structure -1,214 -1,307 -1,364 Expand the standard deduction and repeal personal exemptions 491 438 438 Index tax provisions to chained CPI 134 88 765 New pass-through business deduction -415 -542 -758 Pass-through business loss

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Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf

vs Financials: Pre vs Post-COVID Growth January 24, 2023 11 US Corporate Domestic Profits record levels S&P 500 Index PA Economy Nominal GDP real and inflation growth PA Home Values but growth decelerating quickly 0.90 1.10 1

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

1 thereafter, the minimum wage would increase by an annual cost- of-living adjustment based on the regional Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), rounded to the nearest 5 cents. For tipped workers, employers must also pay the

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

7% 1.3% 1.5% Mid-Atlantic Gasoline 13.7% 22.8% 7.7% -5.3% -0.8% Home Price Index 6.2% 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% n.a. Zillow Home Sales 0.9% 6.1% 7.2% -0

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

fiscal cliff and debt ceiling. o Any residual pent‐up demand? 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 5 Consumer Sentiment Index 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 6 40 60 80 100 May 2011 Debt Ceiling Debate Begins 74.3 Source

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RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdf

to $35,000; and $35,001 to $45,000). Beginning with claim year 2024, PTRR income eligibility thresholds will be indexed to inflation. 1 Qualified income for purposes of the PTRR program excludes 50% of Social Security. Supplemental rebates equal to

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RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf

also increased significantly during that time period: the median Pennsylvania home value increased by 29% while the S&P 500 Index increased by 51% 10 The overall population contraction was driven by three factors: (1) a net domestic outflow to other

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RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf

also increased significantly during that time period: the median Pennsylvania home value increased by 29% while the S&P 500 Index increased by 51% 13 The overall population contraction was driven by three factors: (1) a net domestic outflow to other

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

Additionally, the U.S. personal savings rate increased to 33.7% in April 2020, the highest savings rate in the index’s 62-year history. Savings remained elevated throughout all of 2020, averaging 18.2% between April and December, compared to

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RB-2015-04.pdf

For New Jersey and Ohio, the state minimum wage is tied to in Ðlation as measured by the consumer price index for all urban wage earners (CPI‐W). For the past year, that in Ðlation measure reveals a decline, or disin

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 HPI (right) Realty Transfer (left) Realty Transfer Tax Revenues and PA Home Price Index (HPI) 24 . Sept . 2013 20 Other Tax Revenues 2013 Q3 As expected, Corporate Net Income revenues flat or declining slightly

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

Nominal State GDP 4.4% 2.5% 3.9% Wages and Salaries 4.1% 2.1% 4.0% Consumer Price Index 3.3% 1.4% 1.9% Average Job Gains (000s) 26.2 -2.7 52.1 Source: Historical data from

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsx

on data from July to July. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, (http://www.census.gov/popest/data/historical/index.html) Creator: Karen Maynard LastModifiedBy: MJR Created: 2014-06-12T19:26:21Z Modified: 2014-06-12T20:46:19Z Application: Microsoft

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

in Act 1 or local homestead programs. Woodwork effect if significant homestead relief enacted. 6 March 8, 2018 Act 1 Index: History And Forecast 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

years. Source: FY 2016-17 actuals from Pennsylvania Department of Education. All other years estimated by the IFO. Act 1 Index: History and Forecast March 1, 2019 20 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% SAWW

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PICPA Presentation_ June 11, 2019.pdf

7% 1.3% 1.5% Mid-Atlantic Gasoline 13.7% 22.8% 7.7% -5.3% -0.8% Home Price Index 5.9% 5.4% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% Zillow Home Sales 0.9% 6.1% 7.2% -0

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

PA FREE Quitline vendor) data; data reflects overall conventional tobacco quit rate. 5 BMI stands for Body Mass Index. Any score greater than 30 is considered obese. Data from U.S. CDC, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

the state. In order to reflect the financial activities of these programs, this report includes additional tables for inde- pendent authorities for each agency activity in which they play a role. The table below shows a summary of project awards and

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

criminal justice system to the national average and neighboring states. State Crime Rates As measured by the crime index rate, the frequency of crime has declined in 46 states between 2006 and 2016. As shown in the following table, Pennsylvania and

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

To compute real tolls for the Pennsylvania Turnpike, the analysis deflates tolls by the PA-DE-NJ-MD consumer price index for relevant years. Beginning with CY 2011, the E-ZPass and cash tolls diverged. For CY 2011 to CY 2013

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 Cumulative Growth Rates Income Sales Act 1 Index effective 2004-05= 1.0 Property 12 19.May.2017 Ratio: State-Local Taxes / State Personal Income Tax Burden Rankings

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

New York Mercantile Exchange ($3.108 for CY 2017). Includes the impact of the annual adjustment for the Consumer Price Index. 3. The price used for this calculation is a weighted average of spot prices at the Dominion South and Leidy

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Newsstand_2019_March.pdf

up 1.5% from Prior Year On March 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released February consumer price index (CPI) data for the PA-NJ- DE-MD statistical area, which includes Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties. On

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

period. Philadelphia Region Inflation Remains Steady On July 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released regional consumer price index data. The Philadelphia region CPI-U increased by 2.1% from the previous June. Excluding energy, the Philadelphia region CPI-

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Newsstand_2018_July.pdf

For filers reporting more than $1 million of AGI, capital gains increased 32.2%. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index increased by 17.0% (annual average). The preliminary tax data exclude filers who requested an extension to file (typically upper-

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MTR-2015-10-Highlights.pdf

for a three-month average growth rate of 15.4%. This report also discusses the connection between the Consumer Price Index and Social Security cost of living adjustments (COLAs). Due to declining consumer prices there will be no Social Security COLA

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MQRE_FY23-24_08_2023.pdf

and quarterly estimates are based on the FY 2023-24 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 20, 2023 adjusted to reflect (1) a liquor store profits transfer consistent with assumptions

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

and quarterly estimates are based on the FY 2022-23 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 23, 2022 adjusted to reflect (1) the impact of statutory changes that were enacted

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

estimates are based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Official Revenue Estimate published by the Inde- pendent Fiscal Office (IFO) on June 22, 2020, which includes adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory changes that were enacted in

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdf

0% n.a. Wages and Salaries 9 3.2% 4.3% 2.4% -5.7% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 10 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdf

6% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 12.6% 9.5% 9.1% 11.9% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 16.4% 14.8% 13.3% 14.5% 12.7% Monthly Data Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdf

9% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 -6.3% -1.0% 1.5% 3.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 8.3% 11.1% 12.2% 16.4% Monthly Data Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

9% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 -6.3% -1.0% 1.5% 3.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 8.3% 11.1% 12.2% 16.4% Monthly Data Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdf

6% 1.9% Wages and Salaries 10 11.9% 8.5% 8.3% 10.1% 9.3% FHFA House Price Index 11 16.4% 14.8% 13.3% 14.5% 12.7% Monthly Data May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdf

4% -2.8% Wages and Salaries 10 -4.5% -0.7% 1.8% 2.2% 10.9% FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 8.3% 11.1% 12.2% 16.4% Monthly Data May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdf

6% 12.0% Wages and Salaries 9 4.7% 3.2% 4.3% 2.4% -5.7% FHFA House Price Index 10 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% Monthly Data Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdf

9% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 8.5% 8.3% 10.1% 9.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 14.8% 13.3% 14.5% 12.7% n.a. Monthly Data Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

0% n.a. Wages and Salaries 9 3.2% 4.3% 2.4% -5.7% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 10 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% Monthly Data Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

8% n.a. Wages and Salaries 9 4.6% 4.7% 3.5% 4.3% 3.7% FHFA House Price Index 10 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.9% n.a. Monthly Data Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdf

3% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 8.3% 10.0% 9.6% 9.0% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 13.4% 14.6% 12.9% 9.6% 8.1% Monthly Data Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf

5% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 1.9% 1.0% 12.6% 9.8% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 11.2% 12.3% 16.6% 14.8% 13.4% Monthly Data Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdf

5% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 2.2% -6.2% -1.0% -0.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 4.7% 8.4% 11.0% 11.9% Monthly Data Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf

5% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 2.2% -6.2% -1.0% -0.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 4.7% 8.4% 11.0% 11.9% Monthly Data Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

8% n.a. Wages and Salaries 9 4.6% 4.7% 3.5% 4.3% 3.7% FHFA House Price Index 10 5.6% 5.1% 5.0% 4.7% 4.9% Monthly Data Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdf

0% -3.6% Wages and Salaries 10 1.0% 12.6% 9.5% 9.1% 11.9% FHFA House Price Index 11 12.3% 16.4% 14.8% 13.3% 14.5% Monthly Data Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdf

3% 17.9% Wages and Salaries 10 2.2% -6.3% -1.0% 1.5% 3.3% FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 4.7% 8.4% 11.0% 11.9% Monthly Data Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

0% 2.9% Wages and Salaries 9 4.5% 4.6% 3.4% 4.6% 1.8% FHFA House Price Index 10 5.6% 5.0% 5.1% 4.9% 5.0% Monthly Data Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdf

3% 3.3% Wages and Salaries 10 8.5% 8.3% 10.0% 9.6% 9.0% FHFA House Price Index 11 14.7% 13.5% 14.6% 12.9% 9.6% Monthly Data Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdf

1% 9.6% Wages and Salaries 10 3.2% 4.3% 2.2% -6.2% -0.7% FHFA House Price Index 11 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdf

5% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 1.9% 1.0% 12.6% 9.8% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 11.2% 12.4% 16.6% 14.7% n.a. Monthly Data Sept-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdf

5% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 1.9% 1.0% 12.6% 9.8% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 11.2% 12.4% 16.6% 14.7% n.a. Monthly Data Sept-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdf

6% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 4.3% 2.2% -6.2% -0.7% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% n.a. Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

6% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 4.3% 2.2% -6.2% -0.7% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% n.a. Monthly Data Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdf

9% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 8.5% 8.3% 10.1% 9.3% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 14.7% 13.5% 14.6% 12.9% 9.6% Monthly Data Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

0% n.a. Wages and Salaries 9 3.2% 4.3% 2.4% -5.7% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 10 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 8.0% Monthly Data Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdf

6% n.a. Wages and Salaries 10 12.6% 9.5% 9.1% 11.9% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 11 16.4% 14.8% 13.3% 14.5% n.a. Monthly Data Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

9% n.a. Wages and Salaries 9 4.6% 3.4% 4.6% 1.8% n.a. FHFA House Price Index 10 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% Monthly Data Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf

2% 5.4% Wages and Salaries 10 1.9% 1.0% 12.6% 9.5% 8.0% FHFA House Price Index 11 11.2% 12.3% 16.5% 14.8% 13.4% Monthly Data Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdf

0% 3.5% Wages and Salaries 10 4.3% 2.2% -6.2% -1.0% -0.3% FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 5.2% 4.8% 8.3% 10.9% Monthly Data Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

0% 3.5% Wages and Salaries 10 4.3% 2.2% -6.2% -1.0% -0.3% FHFA House Price Index 11 4.7% 5.2% 4.8% 8.3% 10.9% Monthly Data Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

8% n.a. Wages and Salaries 9 4.6% 4.7% 3.5% 4.3% 3.7% FHFA House Price Index 10 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.9% n.a. Monthly Data Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

95 100 28.Jan.2015 9 Consumer Sentiment Surges Jan 2009 Jan 2015 June 2014 June 2008 UM Consumer Sentiment Index aligns exactly with gasoline price drop Average Gasoline Price Decline Year‐Over‐Year: • Avg. Price Jul to Dec 2014: ‐7

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jackson ppt.pdf

6 12.8 13.5 14.7 Housing Starts (Millions) 0.58 0.61 0.73 0.97 Consumer Price Index 1.6 3.1 1.5 1.8 Core CPI 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 Refiners’ Acquisition

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

a.C.S. § 2302(c), a regional inflation adjustment is applied to the fee schedule, based on the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers for the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland area, if the total number of unconventional gas

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IFO_ Job_Posting_Jan_2022.pdf

that demonstrates critical thinking and writing skills. For more information about the office, see http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/index.cfm. CreationDate: 2022-01-03 14:38:13 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2022-01-03 14:59

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IFO ppt.pdf

Encouraging Signs… • US unemployment rate down to 8.5% in December. • Consumer Confidence up sharply at end of year. – UM Index of Consumer Sentiment up 4th straight month. – Conference Board Consumer Confidence up 5th straight month. Gain from October to December

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

impact of higher inflation is less clear. 4 Inflation Erodes Real Pension Benefits Because SERS and PSERS benefits are not indexed to inflation, current retirees lose significant purchasing power due to high inflation that will not be recovered. The table below

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

in the stock market. Consumers are more reluctant to spend under such conditions. The latest readings of the consumer confidence index reveal that confidence has dropped for the latest two months.  International economic growth appears to be decelerating across all

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

60.0 75.0 90.0 nov 2010 feb may aug nov 2011 feb may University Of Michigan Conference Board Index of U.S. Consumer Confidence 10.Jul.2012 13 2012 GPNP Conference -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Jun-06 Jun-

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FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf

interest forgiven (no negative amortization) Reduces cost of student loan debt | incentivizes more borrowing ▪ Single < $32,800 makes no payments (indexed) ▪ Family of 4 < $67,500 makes no payments ▪ CBO (2023): graduate debt +10%, undergrad debt +15% October 3, 2023 17

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

taxable) Economics: Pre vs Post-COVID Growth November 15, 2022 12 US Corporate Domestic Profits record levels S&P 500 Index through Nov 11 PA Economy Nominal GDP real and inflation growth PA Home Values growth decelerating quickly 0.90 1

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

9% 2020 Q3-Q4 Credit Card Debt -8.6% 2020 Q2-Q3 Rental Market Low Income HH S&P 500 Index +8.8% CY 2020 Lost Economic Growth Drives Larger Structural Deficit January 21, 2021 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

annualized) 55.1 41.4 27.8 -847.4 % Renters Deferring/Not Paying -- -- 11.4% 19.1% Zillow Home Value Index 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.2% Per Capita Consumer Debt 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 0.3%

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

2.4% -1.0% -- Median Sales Price 2.7% 2.5% 4.4% 3.7% 5.4% -- FHFA House Price Index 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% -- Per Capita Consumer Debt Auto Loans 7.6% 5.4%

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Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf

age 65 to 79 who work and are employed by a specific sector. (These data exclude self-employed individuals and inde- pendent contractors.) For these workers, the data reveal that: ▪ The arts-entertainment (11.4%), other services (10.5%), retail-wholesale

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

sales tax doubles Credit Card Debt -11.6% 70% of impact payments saved or pay down debt S&P 500 Index +12.4% New Round of Federal Stimulus March 11, 2021 5 CARES CAA ARP Notes Payments to Individuals State Unemployment

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

Monthly average gasoline prices were $3.68 per gallon in 2012 and $3.56 per gallon in 2013. Consumer Price Index (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Source: IHS Economics, January 2014. Average Gasoline Prices: Central Atlantic Region Regular unleaded gasoline. Source: Energy

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Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf

of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.3. - Taxes and assets are in fiscal year 2016 dollars, adjusted using GDP price index. - Risk measure is for a single year. Longer-term investment risks are larger. Consequences of a one standard deviation shortfall

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Items Less Shelter 67.0 1.4 6.7 7.2 Note: CPI-U weight is relative importance of sub-index. Some series are omitted so weights do not sum to 100%. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S

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2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf

3 to approximate the prices received by producers. 3. The inflation adjustment reflects the annual growth in the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers for the PA-NJ-DE-MD region in the preceding 12 months. Estimated by the IFO

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2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

3 to approximate the prices received by producers. 3. The inflation adjustment reflects the annual growth in the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers for the PA-NJ-DE-MD region in the preceding 12 months. 4. Prices are from

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

5% 6.2% 3.1% n.a. Pennsylvania Real GDP 0.3% 2.5% 3.2% n.a. Home Price Index 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% n.a. Philadelphia CPI-U 2.1% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% Net

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

prices. • Monthly average gasoline prices fluctuated between $3.20 and $3.99 per gallon in 2011 and 2012. Consumer Price Index (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2013 PA forecast. Average Gasoline Prices Regular unleaded gasoline, Central Atlantic

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2002_drop_report.pdf

a formula rate based upon the actuarial assumed interest rate for the pension plan, a rate based upon an independent index, such as bonds or U.S. Treasury Bills, or no interest may be credited at all. Final distribution of the

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Pensions

equal to the decedent's monthly salary (adjusted annually by an amount equal to the increase in the Consumer Price Index), less the amount of any workers' compensation or pension benefit payable to an eligible beneficiary; 2) repeal Section 5(e

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