PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to InflationThe COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to examine how those outcomes affected real wages and earnings for the average or typical Pennsylvania private sector worker. Tags: brief, earnings, inflation, research |
Inflation's Impact on Earnings and PensionsThis research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant. Tags: brief, earnings, inflation, pensions, research |
Inflation's Impact on the Pennsylvania EconomyOn June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget. Tags: economy, inflation, pennsylvania |
Inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension BenefitsThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of inflation on the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers and the real value of public pension benefits. Tags: inflation, pension, wages |
PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to inflationThe COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to examine how those outcomes affected real wages and earnings for the average or typical Pennsylvania private sector worker. 11/30/2023 |
inflation's Impact on Earnings and PensionsThis research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant. 07/31/2023 |
inflation's Impact on the Pennsylvania EconomyOn June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget. 06/07/2022 |
PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage GrowthUsing the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds historic wage gains for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. The brief notes that employee compensation comprises 56% of final sales and firms will likely push most labor costs forward to final consumers, thereby putting upward pressure on prices and inflation. 11/03/2021 |
inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension BenefitsThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of inflation on the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers and the real value of public pension benefits. 10/19/2021 |
Raising the Minimum Wage in PennsylvaniaThis research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of the proposal to 1) raise the Pennsylvania state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and 2) automatically adjust future minimum wage levels to offset inflation. 11/30/2015 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfbut rather a controlled simulation. They assume that economic growth is consistent with full employment, historical labor productivity gains and inflation expectations. The economic simulation provides a neutral baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it assumes that Annual jobs growth slows compared to historical averages. That outcome reflects the ongoing contraction of the state working-age population. ▪ Inflation decelerates to 2.3% per annum, somewhat higher than the Federal Reserve target rate of 2.0%. ▪ Workers receive wage Hits: 40 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdfRates ........................................................................................................ 8 Impact of Recent Demographic Trends on the State Labor Force........................................................ 9 Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Consumer Inflation ........................................................................................................................ 14 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 15 Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 17 Tax Revenue Trends and Projections .............................................................................................. 18 Personal Income Tax ..................................................................................................................... 19 Sales and Use but rather a controlled simulation. They assume that economic growth is consistent with full employment, historical labor productivity gains and inflation expectations. The economic simulation provides a neutral baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it assumes that Hits: 36 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdfPrograms ............................................................................................11 Payroll Employment .......................................................................................................12 Labor Force Trends ........................................................................................................14 Income Trends ..............................................................................................................17 Unspent Federal Stimulus ...............................................................................................18 Consumer Spending Patterns ..........................................................................................20 Inflation and Sales Taxes ................................................................................................21 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................22 Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................................. 23 Personal Income Tax......................................................................................................24 Sales and Use Tax .........................................................................................................25 Corporate but rather a controlled simulation. They assume that economic growth is consistent with full employment, historical labor productivity gains and inflation expectations. The economic simulation provides a neutral baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it assumes that Hits: 31 |
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf1 Inflation’s Impact on the Pennsylvania Economy, Budget and Pensions House Majority Policy Committee Hearing on Inflation June 8, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Good morning committee members. For my testimony, I will note some Hits: 27 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdfa controlled simulation. They assume that economic growth is consistent with full employment, historical labor productivity gains and inflation expectations. The economic simulation provides a neutral baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it does not assume that that analysts use to gauge the performance of a state economy: (1) real gross domestic product (GDP, excludes inflation), (2) nominal GDP, (3) statewide wages and salaries, (4) the regional consumer price index (CPI-U) and (5) the annual change in Hits: 27 |
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdfMany recent articles have noted the negative impact that high rates of inflation are having on the real earnings of U.S. workers. 1 The latest monthly earnings release by the U.S prior year. 2 Despite strong nominal wage gains, the real value of those gains has been eliminated by economy-wide inflation as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). To examine this issue for Pennsylvania workers, Table 1 Hits: 26 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdfproject General Fund, Lottery Fund and Motor License Fund revenues. The forecast assumes modest real economic growth and continued strong inflation relative to historical rates. It also assumes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to implement the higher interest rates and monetary tightening described in recent public statements. Officials have emphasized those actions are necessary to reduce inflation. The forecast does not assume that a recession occurs in calendar year (CY) 2022 or CY 2023. However, many analysts Hits: 24 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdfproject General Fund, Lottery Fund and Motor License Fund revenues. The forecast assumes modest real economic growth and continued strong inflation relative to historical rates. It also assumes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement the higher interest rates and monetary tightening described in recent public statements. Officials have emphasized those actions are necessary to reduce inflation. The forecast does not assume that a recession occurs in calendar year (CY) 2022 or CY 2023. However, many analysts Hits: 24 |
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdfThe latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show a rapid deceleration of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Philadelphia metro region. In June 2022, year-over-year (YOY) inflation peaked at 8.8%, but since then has decelerated to 3.1% (June 2023). Most forecasters project that inflation will Hits: 24 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfbut rather a controlled simulation. They assume that economic growth is consistent with full employment, historical labor productivity gains and inflation expectations. The economic simulation provides a neutral baseline that policymakers can use to assess fiscal sustainability, and it does not 2023 and later years, the forecast reflects a long-run growth rate that is consistent with full em- ployment, low inflation and normal productivity gains. For these projections, the forecast assumes that: The Federal Reserve achieves its target inflation rate Hits: 19 |
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdfthose plans. Therefore, those types of risk are not discussed further. A sixth type of risk noted by actuaries is inflation risk. This risk reflects the potential loss of pur- chasing power caused by rising price levels. Some DB plans provide retirees with cost-of-living ad- justments to offset inflation and maintain the purchasing power of future benefits. The current DB plans offered by the Systems provide a fixed annual Hits: 19 |
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdfa formula, with over 80% of the formulas based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or some other measurement of inflation. Fixed - In 31% of the retirement systems, the benefit amount is determined as one fixed percentage or dollar amount. The adjustments, or cost-of-living increases, are utilized to address erosion in the purchasing power of retirement benefits caused by inflation. Methods of Implementing Postretirement Adjustments Ad Hoc Postretirement Adjustments. Postretirement adjustments may be provided either on an ad hoc basis Hits: 18 |
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdfby IHS Markit, Wells Fargo and PNC Bank. Across the three forecasts: Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) increases from 1.4% to 1.6% (CY 2023) and from -0.2% to 1.3% (CY 2024). The 5% (CY 2023) and 2.0% to 2.7% (CY 2024). The latest national data show clear deceleration of consumer inflation: 6.4% (January), 6.0% (February), 5.0% (March), 4.9% (April) and 4.0% (May). U.S. Corporate Hits: 16 |
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdfby IHS Markit, Wells Fargo and PNC Bank. Across the three forecasts: Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) increases from 1.2% to 1.3% (CY 2023) and from -0.4% to 0.9% (CY 2024). The 2% (CY 2023) and 1.6% to 2.5% (CY 2024). The latest national data show clear deceleration of consumer inflation: 6.4% (January), 6.0% (February), 5.0% (March) and 4.9% (April). U.S. Corporate Profits expand or Hits: 15 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdfrecovery from the significant contraction in calendar year (CY) 2020. For the current year and next, the forecast projects higher inflation due to (1) domestic and international supply chain issues and (2) federal monies injected into the national and state economies and will expand by nearly 14% relative to 2020 Q2 during the height of mitigation efforts and mandated business closures. ▪ Inflation accelerated rapidly in April to 3.5%. The May 2021 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Hits: 13 |
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdfrecovery from the significant contraction in calendar year (CY) 2020. For the current year and next, the forecast projects higher inflation due to (1) domestic and international supply chain issues and (2) federal monies injected into the national and state economies and will expand by nearly 12% relative to 2020 Q2 during the height of mitigation efforts and mandated business closures. ▪ Inflation accelerated rapidly in April to 3.5%. The May 2021 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Hits: 13 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdfused. The lower portion of Table 2.1 displays the difference between the current SP parameters and thresh- olds and inflation-adjusted values based on the Philadelphia Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) through 2021. If the comparison SP thresholds and exemptions. Personal Income Tax | Page 17 taxpayer with one dependent is $5,230 lower compared to the inflation-adjusted amount from 1974. How- ever, for two dependents, the difference is positive ($480) because the current law parameters are Hits: 12 |
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdfstories (e.g., jobs) Rapid PA labor market slowdown A pause in Corporate Profits What do you expect this year? Inflation sticks around (Philly CPI-U) “We Never Forecasted a Recession…” Slide 2 Feb 2024 Economic Summit 0 10 20 30 13, 2020: Pandemic Starts… Jobs and Workers 1.1 million worker contraction April 2020; UE Rate goes to 16.2% Inflation Inflated assets: homes and stocks Real Earnings Feb 2024 Economic Summit Slide 6 Was there a permanent exodus from Labor Hits: 12 |
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdfrising prices. Regional (PA-NY-NJ) real GSP increases at a slightly slower (2.0 percent) annual rate. Inflation increases by 1.6 percent per annum. The inflation measure reflects the price of all consumer goods and services for the Pennsylvania-Delaware-New Jersey-Maryland region, also referred Hits: 10 |
mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf0% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Wages Average Wage CPI‐U June Forecast Called for 2.2% Inflation in 2015. • Revised down to 0.3%. Could be negative (IHS Economics). • Due to low gasoline prices. Low utility prices too. • Strong dollar also makes imports cheaper. Why Does This Matter? • Tax revenues include inflation. • Inflation is transmitted to tax revenues through (1) higher prices (SUT) and (2) higher wages (PIT). • Expenditure impact unclear (e Hits: 10 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdfPhiladelphia Metro Region Inflation Surges Past U.S. Average The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the first time since February 2020. Metro level data are published every other month. For February, the Philadelphia metro region inflation rate (7.3%) fell short of the U.S. rate (7.9%) by 0.6 percentage points (ppts). For April Hits: 9 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdflong-term fiscal outlook Method: assume economy reverts to long-term trends Key Themes and Issues Federal Stimulus, Labor Force, Inflation November 15, 2021 1 Today’s Guest Speaker – Emily Maher, NCSL Navigating the Waters: How States are Spending Fiscal Recovery contracts ▪ COVID: ~30,000 excess deaths in 2020 + 2021 | small baby bust 2021 ▪ No longer-term impacts Economics jobs and inflation ▪ Will workers return? | impact of general price and asset inflation ▪ Does a wage-price spiral emerge? Revenues permanent real and Hits: 9 |
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdfto FY 2014-15 General Fund revenues. • Implications for projected budget deficits. Latest Economic Developments. • Gas prices. Consumer confidence. Low inflation. 12.Feb.2015 2 Today’s Presentation Act 120 of 2010 Creates Independent Fiscal Office. • Hiring starts September 2011 Fiscal Office. 14 +$100 m inheritance gas prices and confidence sustainable? Economic Developments Gas Prices Collapse Consumer Confidence Surges Low Inflation Anticipated 12.Feb.2015 15 12.Feb.2015 16 Monthly Average Gas Price $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3 Hits: 8 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdfof 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that: Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) will increase by 2.3 percent (2018) and 2.2 percent (2019). The Philadelphia and Pittsburgh CPI-U (consumer price index com- parison shows: An upward revision to 2017 and 2018 real GDP growth. Lower consumer price inflation in 2017 and 2018. A downward revision to 2016 wage growth, but stronger growth for 2018. Stronger job gains for Hits: 8 |
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdfof 2017. (See Table 1.1.) The forecast projects that: Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) will increase by 2.3 percent (2018) and 2.2 percent (2019). The Philadelphia and Pittsburgh CPI-U (consumer price index com- parison shows: An upward revision to 2017 and 2018 real GDP growth. Lower consumer price inflation in 2017 and 2018. A downward revision to 2016 wage growth, but stronger growth for 2018. Stronger job gains for Hits: 8 |
EPLC_April_2024.pdfthe Current Population Survey. PA Labor Force Participation Rates Notes Education Policy & Leadership Center Slide 6 • Real GDP (adjusts for inflation) expected to decelerate, but still positive • PIT Withholding slowing returning to non-inflation era growth • Payroll jobs for 2023 recently adjusted downward as more complete administrative data became available • Inflation decelerating, but still Hits: 8 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf Service populations that expand at a faster pace than the labor force that supports the tax base. Healthcare inflation that outpaces general inflation and many sources of revenue. The report assumes that trend will continue into the future. After this fiscal year, the Hits: 8 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfprincipal. Because annual covered payroll of active members can be expected to increase in future years as a result of inflation, level-dollar payments generally represent a decreasing percentage of annual payroll. Under level-percentage-of-projected-payroll amortization, amortization payments generous for already‐retired workers every year, is that benefits are based on the employees top salary years unadjusted for inflation. Since Pennsylvania SERS and PSERS benefits are not automatically adjusted for the rising cost‐of‐living, unlike Social Security, 8 Hits: 8 |
Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdfevery month through December May 23, 2022 1 Three Potential Outcomes Soft Landing (~10%) ▪ No standard definition or time frame ▪ Inflation decelerates quickly towards Fed target | no recession Recession (~30%) ▪ Real GDP contracts | major stock market and housing correction ▪ Jobs stagnate or contract Stagnation or Growth Recession (~60%) ▪ Minimal real growth | continued strong inflation ▪ Real wages eroded in near term | hiring slows but still positive ▪ Stock market and home sales (not prices) continue to Hits: 7 |
RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdf19 pandemic, mitigation efforts and federal response produced two economic outcomes that directly impacted the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers. Inflation surged to a four-decade high while a labor shortage and strong demand pushed up worker wages, especially for lower- comparison changes during the four years. In 2020, the average worker enjoyed wage gains as earnings and wage growth exceeded inflation. Inflation then surged in 2021 and 2022, so that real earnings and wages contracted. For 2023, inflation and average hourly Hits: 7 |
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdfof Pennsylvania March 16, 2023 Good Morning and a Quick Overview I PA Economy: Where are we? ▪ Latest data: jobs, inflation, labor market ▪ Focus: labor market and demographics ▪ Focus: inflation and wages II Statewide Public School Employment, Payroll and Wages ▪ COVID jobs contraction ▪ Real Average Weekly Wage contracts III Act Hits: 7 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdfof Labor Statistics released CPI-U data for August. The data for the Philadelphia metro region show year-over-year inflation of 4.6%, down from 4.9% in June. That result is due to a deceleration in used car and gasoline inflation (not shown in table) and a significant deceleration in Medical Care inflation from 2.8% in June to 0.0% Hits: 7 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2023.pdfJune Inflation Decelerates Rapidly This update uses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All Items Philadelphia CPI-U is published on a bi-monthly basis, but four larger components that comprise Hits: 7 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdfyears is clearly more likely than not….” As noted by Summers, analysts generally cite three factors that are causing high inflation: (1) overstimulation of demand, largely from the American Rescue Plan; (2) excessive money creation and delayed intervention by the Federal the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that federal stimulus may have contributed 3.0 percentage points to the inflation rate by the end of 2021. For February 2022, the Federal Reserve balance sheet includes $8.9 trillion in “reserve Hits: 7 |
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf13. Assume base year policy is maintained all future years. Provide same relative funding levels controlling for (1) inflation and (2) demographic growth. Assume tax law does not change. Only two factors change. Economic growth (GDP When calculating average cost per recipient, data from Executive Budgets were used. Once avg. cost was determined, various inflation factors were applied over forecast window. State pension contributions were backed out and forecasted separately. Pensions added back Hits: 7 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdfof March 1, 2019). Table 2.1 Minimum Wage Rates by State (as of January 1st) 1 All inflation adjustments in this table use IHS Markit's U.S. CPI-U year-over-year growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Minimum Wage | Page 14 Recent Minimum Wage Studies The text that follows provides the main findings and results Hits: 6 |
RB-2017-5.pdfthe economic metrics used for the purpose of the analysis (gross domestic product and personal income) include the impact of inflation as well. Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 set of industries or age groups. Second, the results will likely be sensitive have also contributed to the results of this analysis. The time period examined was characterized by very low levels of inflation. During such times, wage earners generally fare better than periods of high inflation because wages paid to workers typically do Hits: 6 |
MTR-2015-10.pdfFaɆɆiɈg EɈeɌgɓ PɌiceɍ DɌiɐe Lɉɑ IɈfɆaɎiɉɈ aɈd EɆiɇiɈaɎe COLAɍ The inflation rate, an important economic indicator, has remained relatively low over the past three years, and that outcome has implications for cost of living adjustment or COLA. Social Security recipients receive COLAs to ensure that their benefits are not eroded by inflation. Annual COLAs are determined by the U.S. Department of Labor based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Hits: 6 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdfPhiladelphia Consumer Inflation Accelerates in December On January 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for 0%). The CPI Less Shelter series grew +7.7% in December and is the best measure of real-time consumer inflation because it excludes foregone rent imputed to homeowners. The CPI Shelter series (33.0% of CPI) is a combination of Hits: 6 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdfrates must increase rapidly to facilitate jobs creation Economics ▪ Simulation assumes no recession, but no growth for CY 2023 Revenues ▪ Inflation boosts stock and home values | capital gains surge in 2021 (+85%) ▪ Business profits far above historical levels ▪ CNIT rate cut 12 US Corporate Domestic Profits record levels S&P 500 Index through Nov 11 PA Economy Nominal GDP real and inflation growth PA Home Values growth decelerating quickly 0.90 1.10 1.30 1.50 1.70 2018 2019 2020 Hits: 6 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdfrate gap lower than last year (~0.5%). November 16, 2017 6 Some Important Caveats Assume discretionary spending grows with inflation. Need not happen. Policymakers often elect to “flat fund.” Who absorbs the higher costs? The service provider. Economic 000s) +52,000 jobs per annum -7,200 jobs per annum +46,200 jobs per annum Assumes Normal Growth and Inflation -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Hits: 6 |
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdfsignificantly outperform estimates ▪ Corporate net income, sales tax, personal income, inheritance Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 | wage-price spiral taking hold? Unknown factors (mostly negative) ▪ Stock market correction | S&P 500 down 7% in interest rates ▪ Expiration of remaining relief: student loans, SNAP, rent assistance January 31, 2022 1 Economic Forecast: Stronger Wages and Inflation January 31, 2022 2 Annual Growth Rates or Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Real GDP June 2021 2.4% Hits: 6 |
index.cfmincrease of $107.9 million (3.7%) compared to November 2022 (adjusted). ... (Full Report) PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to Inflation Economics and Other November 30, 2023 The COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to Hits: 6 |
Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdfcontract ▪ Labor force participation rates do not recover from COVID decline Economics ▪ Forecast assumes reversion to “normal” economic growth Revenues ▪ Inflation boosts stock and home values | business profits far above historical levels Expenditures ▪ All FY 22-23 funding increases assumed permanent and independent contractors. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. Inflation Appears to Peak June 2022 January 24, 2023 6 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Dec-18 Feb Apr Hits: 5 |
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdfof Labor Statistics. PA Employment Changes By Sector 19 12.May.2016 Expenditure Impacts All expenditure projections motivated by: (1) inflation projections; and (2) growth in service populations. Appropriate level of expenditures will be determined by the Governor and General Assembly 1% … 2.2% General Fund Expenditure Extrapolators 21 12.May.2016 Average Annual Growth Population Age 65+ 2.8% General Inflation 2.1% Healthcare Inflation Premium 1.5% Age 65+ Healthcare Expenditure Trend (excluding policy changes) 6.4% 22 Example: Age Hits: 5 |
PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Base Index SAWW ECI low inflation Sources: Index and components through 21-22 published by PDE. For later years, SAWW is projected by the Department of projected by IHS Markit with minor adjustments by the IFO. Assumes no change in minimum wage. March 17, 2021 moderate inflation strong jobs market Great Recession large ECI and SAWW disconnect another rare disconnect COVID-19 PA Macroeconomic Growth Rates: 2002 Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdfProducer and Consumer Inflation Accelerate in October This week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released October data for the Producer Price prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. It is similar to the CPI, but while the PPI shows inflation from the perspective of sellers, the CPI shows inflation from the perspective of purchasers or consumers. Unlike the CPI, the Hits: 5 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdfIncreases 3.5%, Core CPI-U up 5.0% On May 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data for metro regions. For April, the All Items CPI-U for the Philadelphia metro region increased by 3.5% Shelter portion of the Philadelphia CPI-U. Therefore, the All Items Less Shelter index may provide the best measure of inflation for goods and services that consumers actually purchase. PA Total Wage Growth Accelerates Based on the latest four months of Hits: 5 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfList of Materials Included Independent Fiscal Office – Overview ........................................................................ 1 Independent Fiscal Office – Expenditures ................................................................... 2 Executive Budget Financial Statement ........................................................................ 3 Economics – Inflation and Labor Market ..................................................................... 4 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs End ............................................................... 6 Demographic Outlook ................................................................................................ 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Population Gains .......................................................... 8 Demographics – Net funding sources are flat. Assumes Budget Stabilization Fund accrues 3% interest per annum. Independent Fiscal Office 4 March 2023 Economics – Inflation and Labor Market Economics – Inflation and Labor Market CPI-U 2023 Weight Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb All Hits: 5 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office – Expenditures ................................................................... 2 Economics – COVID Impact on PA Jobs ...................................................................... 3 Economics – Jobs and Labor Force Participation ......................................................... 4 Economics – Inflation and General Economics ............................................................ 5 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs ...................................................................... 6 Demographics – Pennsylvania Snapshot ..................................................................... 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Decedent Trends and Excess Death 600/wk ends Dec 2019 vs Dec 2021 -3.5 ppt, -360k workers Independent Fiscal Office 5 February 2022 Economics – Inflation and General Economics Economics – Inflation and Recent Trends Year-Over-Year Growth Share Dec 19 Jun 20 Dec 20 Jun Hits: 5 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfOther Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic and Consumer Outlook Page The U.S. economy expands moderately in 2017 and consumer inflation exceeds 2.0%. 3 The Pennsylvania economy showed weak expansion in 2016 and acceleration in 2017. 4 For 2016, total consumer debt increases modestly due to a reduction in primary mortgage debt. 5 Consumer inflation in both the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro regions begins to accelerate. 6 Gasoline prices have recovered from a decade low Hits: 5 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfOther Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic and Consumer Outlook Page The U.S. economy expands moderately in 2017 and consumer inflation exceeds 2.0%. 3 The Pennsylvania economy showed weak expansion in 2016 and acceleration in 2017. 4 For 2016, total consumer debt increases modestly due to a reduction in primary mortgage debt. 5 Consumer inflation in both the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro regions begins to accelerate. 6 Gasoline prices have recovered from a decade low Hits: 5 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdfamount ranges from $750 to $1,500, based on credential level. The credit is refundable and is adjusted annually for inflation. 2 1 Consumer Expenditure Survey (2021), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 See: https://cdec.colorado.gov/early-childhood- more under current law. The federal minimum wage was last raised to $7.25 per hour in 2009. Due to inflation, the real value of the wage rate has eroded over time. From January 2009 through January 2023, the Philadelphia CPI- Hits: 4 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf1) a tight labor market that resulted in very strong wage growth (PIT and SUT), (2) much higher than expected inflation rates (PIT and SUT), (3) unprecedented increases in capital gains and net business profits for tax year 2021 (PIT), (4 the FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23 underprediction errors were due to highly unusual economic conditions (e.g., elevated inflation, rapidly rising interest rates) that occurred post-pandemic. For the past three fiscal years, CNIT and SUT have been major Hits: 4 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdfforecast used for this revenue estimate. The forecast assumes that: Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) decreases by 6.2 percent (2020) and increases by 6.3 percent (2021). Wages and Salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents decrease Increases for most fees levied under Title 75 (the Vehicle Code) are tied to the rate of inflation, with adjustments occurring in calendar years ending in an odd number. Therefore, there is no inflation adjustment for FY 2020-21. Hits: 4 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdfU.S. economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic growth, stable wage gains and moderate inflation. (See Table 1.1 .) For Pennsylvania, the economic forecast by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth moderate pace of jobs creation. The Pennsylvania forecast projects that: Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) will increase by 1.9 percent (2019) and 1.9 percent (2020). Wages and Salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents will increase Hits: 4 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdfand (2) adjusted to reflect economic impacts not reflected in income (e.g., expiration of the student loan moratorium, higher inflation, etc.). Model projections are gross of any trans- fers, which are deducted from projections to derive net flows to the 89 of 2013 increased many of the fees imposed by Title 75 and tied future increases to the rate of inflation. In general, fees are adjusted on July 1 of any calendar year ending in an odd number. The adjustment is Hits: 4 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdfforecast used for this revenue estimate. The forecast assumes that: Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) decreases by 5.6 percent (2020) and increases by 5.5 percent (2021). Wages and Salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents decrease Increases for most fees levied under Title 75 (the Vehicle Code) are tied to the rate of inflation, with adjustments occurring in calendar years ending in an odd number. Therefore, there is no inflation adjustment for FY 2020-21. Hits: 4 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdfU.S. Economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic growth, stable wage gains and moderate inflation. (See Table 1.1.) For Pennsylvania, the economic forecast by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) also projects a deceleration of economic growth Pennsylvania forecast for calendar years 2019 and 2020 projects that: Real GDP (real gross domestic product, excludes inflation) will increase by 1.9 percent each year. Wages and Salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents will increase by 4.1 percent Hits: 4 |
NewsStand_2019_July.pdf2019 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Nursing Home Costs Outpacing Medical and Consumer Inflation On June 25, Bloomberg featured the results of a six-year study on nursing home prices by Georgetown Univer- sity nursing home prices between 2005 and 2010 generally increased much faster than the overall cost of medical care and consumer inflation. In 2018, the national median cost for a private room in a nursing home was $275 per day, or $100 Hits: 4 |
MTR-2016-09.pdfDollar amounts are in millions. WEAK GLOBAL DEMAND REDUCES DAIRY PRICES U.S. consumers have recently benefited from very low inflation in 2015 (0.1% annual increase) and 2016 (1.1% through August). Pennsylvania consumers have also benefited, as the Philadelphia metro area Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) shows even weaker regional inflation (-0.1% and 0.4%, respectively). 1 Originally driven by a collapse in energy prices, this trend has now spread Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2022.pdfdata are not seasonally adjusted, the YOY comparison should control for the impact of normal seasonal factors. To adjust for inflation, the nominal data are deflated by the Philadelphia CPI-U using the same methodology that BLS uses for the U.S. For December, the Philadelphia CPI-U YOY growth was 6.6%. After adjusting for inflation, real hourly earnings for all private workers contracted by 1.2%. (By comparison, real U.S. hourly earnings contracted by Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdfInflation Likely to Persist Due to Strong Demand and Accumulated Savings In late November, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified that inflation would persist longer than anticipated. This monthly update presents data for factors that drive that outcome, and the impact on Hits: 4 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2023.pdfHousing Costs Apply Pressure to Overall Inflation This update uses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Philadelphia metro region to track recent inflation trends. The All Items Philadelphia CPI-U is published on a bi-monthly basis, but four larger components that comprise Hits: 4 |
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdfdriving weakness? Base General Fund growth rate is ~0.0%. Both economic and technical factors are cause. Inflation, business spending and consumers. No public presentation. But will be posted to IFO website. 25.Jan.2017 2 IFO year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecast by IFO. PA Employment Growth (000s) 25.Jan.2017 5 PA Inflation Picks Up Year-Over-Year Increase 2015.4 2016.1 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 Philly CPI-U (100% Hits: 4 |
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdfpandemic hits ▪ Short-term benefit: no payments! ▪ Long-term benefit: forgiven interest, gain 3.5 years on forgiveness window, extra inflation erosion due to unusually high inflation (?) October 3, 2023 3 year months principal interest payment 2020 9 $1,942 $849 $2,792 2021 12 $2,693 Hits: 4 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdfthe Governor must bring budget into balance. What about the federal government? Taxes? ACA? “Discretionary” Spending Grows With Inflation. Need not happen. It is an assumption. Policymakers control that outcome. 11/15/2016 5 Converge to “Normal 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 PA US +47,000 jobs per annum 3.2% average wage growth 2.1% inflation 1.1% real wage increase also known as a “flat line” Real GDP Growth Demographic Outlook Projections from the Pennsylvania Hits: 4 |
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdfstudents may have maximum household income of $96,676 plus $17,017 per dependent. These amounts are adjusted annually for inflation. The maximum allowable income is increased by a factor of 1.5 or 2.993 for a student with a may have maximum family income of $96,676 plus $17,017 per depend- ent. These amounts are adjusted annually for inflation. The maximum allowable income is increased by a factor of 1.5 or 2.993 for a student with a Hits: 3 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfStirrers; Expanded Polystyrene Food Containers Extension to Polystyrene Foam | Page 50 capita spending for Pennsylvania and, adjusted for inflation, that results in $184.1 million ($14.38 per capita) of projected EPS foam purchases in 2020. This value will be used from the Maryland study conducted by mb Public Affairs, Inc. to calculate a per capita cost, adjusted for inflation, for EPS foam products used for school meal services in the Commonwealth. As shown in Table 8.6, using the general cost Hits: 3 |
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdfPhilly CPI-U • Peaks June 2022 at 8.8% • Core excludes food and energy • Shelter continues to run very high • Inflation to remain elevated in 2024 due to (1) lagging shelter component (2) no more energy and durable goods deflation 0% grows by $40 billion per annum • 2023 grows ~$100 billion • Dec 19 to Dec 23: balances up +20%, same as inflation • Jan-Feb paydown cycle will reveal stress Slide 12 Jan 2024 Roundtable $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 Hits: 3 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdfof Revenue Proposals. 12 The federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour was last increased in 2009. Due to inflation, the real value of the wage rate has eroded over time. From February 2009 through February 2024, the Philadelphia CPI- increased by 41.3%, an average rate of 2.3% per annum. If the minimum wage had been adjusted for inflation through the current year, then the rate would be $10.24 in 2024. Comparison of State Minimum Wage Rates As Hits: 3 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdfmore under current law. The federal minimum wage was last raised to $7.25 per hour in 2009. Due to inflation, the real value of the wage rate has eroded over time. From 2009 through 2022, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased an estimated 27.8%, an average rate of 1.9% per annum. If the minimum wage had been adjusted for inflation through the current year, then the wage rate would be $9.26 in 2022. Currently, all border states have a Hits: 3 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdfstate Four key questions ▪ What happens when federal monies are removed? ▪ Is there a labor shortage? ▪ Is the uptick in inflation transitory? ▪ Is there a stock market and/or housing market bubble? Many unusual factors impact FY 2021-22 revenues ▪ Removal week of September ▪ Potential infrastructure package and tax changes excluded Other miscellaneous assumptions ▪ Supply constraints ease during next several months ▪ Inflation is temporary and peaks in late summer 2021 ▪ No major correction in stock or housing markets May 26, 2021 2 Hits: 3 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf25 7.25 7.25 Table 2.1 Minimum Wage Rates by State (as of January 1st) 1 Inflation adjustments in this table use a 2.0% growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Note: Over 50 localities have adopted a minimum wage above their state's minimum wage. Shaded states border Hits: 3 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdfprice of certain items like rent and medical care have in- creased at a faster pace than general inflation, while others have been more subdued or actually declined (gasoline). In order to counteract the impact of inflation and maintain purchasing power, some states link the mandatory minimum wage to the annual percentage increase in the CPI- U. As demonstrated Hits: 3 |
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdfFiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2017 to 2020, 59 Pennsylvania counties recorded personal income gains that exceeded inflation (1.4% per annum), which implies real income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income increases from 2.7% (excludes pandemic relief payments) to 5.1% per annum, and all counties exceed the rate of inflation for that period. Figure 2 shows that average annual personal income growth excluding pandemic relief funds ranged from -0.8% Hits: 3 |
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdfpublished on website ▪ Office does not make recommendations unless required Presentation has 3 parts ▪ I. Statewide economic trends: labor market, inflation and demographics ▪ II. Industry trends and state comparisons: jobs, wages and taxes ▪ III. State budget: revenue proposals and key issues employed counts # jobs location of job youth, family, elderly, food banks, housing assistance fast food +4,400 persistent loss Three Inflation Waves So Far April 19, 2023 8 unexpected Feb surge to 6.9% inflation to decelerate but remain elevated through Hits: 3 |
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf7% 75 14,463 12,747 110.0% 1,715 52.0% Note: Figures in 2015 dollars and control for inflation. Per capita amounts are for all consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary term tax base erosion. Strong growth in demand for government programs and services. Price pressures that exceed normal inflation. Demographic pressures. Creates a long-term imbalance. Sources of funding insufficient to meet needs. Does not Hits: 3 |
PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdfsales tax base (e.g., clothing, certain food, and certain health and professional services). Distributions to districts increase with inflation. A 2015 proposal was similar. Except: Increases personal income tax: 3.07% to 4.95%. Distributions to districts districts declined at an annual rate of 1% or more. Growing vs. declining districts. Faster growing districts may experience inflation- adjusted declines in per-student revenue. Districts with greatest enrollment declines may experience largest increases in per-student revenue Hits: 3 |
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdfand greater detail for age 65+. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Due to aging demographic 2019 to 2022 Inflation Waves: Is Wage Growth Next? March 13, 2023 8 Wage-Price “Persistence” is 5% wage growth consistent with 2% inflation? Something must give energy deflation high productivity gains housing-rental slump -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Aug Oct Hits: 3 |
Newsstand_2019_March.pdfa 2.8% rate for 2018 Q3, compared to 3.4% for the U.S. These growth rates ex- clude inflation. If inflation is included (nominal GDP), then the growth rates increase to 4.6% (PA) and 4.9% (U.S.). For the Hits: 3 |
MTR-2016-10.pdftheory is plausible over the longer term, much of the sudden fall in 2016 is likely due to very low inflation and cautious outlooks for economic growth. Partial data for 2016 Q3 and Q4 suggest a modest acceleration of average wage growth. For 2017, analysts anticipate that an uptick in inflation and a tighter labor market will translate into further acceleration of average wage growth, and possibly higher real and nominal Hits: 3 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdfHousing Market Highlights Divergence Between Consumer Prices and Asset Prices Since 2012, the Federal Reserve has targeted a 2.0% inflation rate in order to achieve its goal of price stability. This metric, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price 6.1% per annum based on the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Purchase-Only Index. Policymakers focus attention on the inflation metric, but it is not the only measure of price changes in the economy. PA Adds 35,700 Jobs in Hits: 3 |
MER-2015-03.pdfex‐ plained by cultural factors such as delayed marriages, but is probably more strongly related to the financial crisis. Recent inflation data confirm that the economic outlook for renters in Pennsylvania may be deteriorating. Fig‐ ure 2 displays the growth rate for the Philadelphia met‐ ro region CPI‐U and the component related to rental housing. 4 Since 2012, rental inflation has surpassed general inflation. The differential is especially nota‐ ble for the first quarter of 2015. Research from the Federal Hits: 3 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdfAll Non-Tax 2,859 2,594 265 Note: Millions of dollars. 13 Most General Fund Revenue Sources Grow with Inflation Note: Percentages represent average annual growth rates since FY 2005-06. All Other Tax excludes cigarette, CSFT and other tobacco Has one or more local areas in the state with a different minimum wage than the state minimum wage. All inflation adjustments in this table use IHS Markit's U.S. CPI-U year-over- year growth rate to estimate inflation Hits: 3 |
Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdfdo not expect strong growth in the final payment for personal income tax this April. April 2013 revenues were artificially inflated because taxpayers accelerated the receipt or recognition of certain income at the end of 2012 to avoid federal tax increases increase in consumer spending is not sustainable without growth in wages. For 2013, wage growth was modest due to low inflation and significant slack in the labor market, which reduces worker leverage. In order for workers to realize wage gains, the Hits: 3 |
Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf1 IFO Reports and Analyses 2 Published Revenue Estimates 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Employment – Job Gains / Losses 5 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 6 Consumer Debt 7 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 8 Sales and Use Tax 1,205 -0.9% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Economics, January 2014. 6 The Pennsylvania Economy – Inflation and Gasoline Prices • Inflation is forecasted to remain low through 2014, but will pick up slightly with economic activity in Hits: 3 |
2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf22 62.3 Dec 21 60.4 Dec 22 61.6 Dec 20 61.9 Dec 19 62.7 Consumer Inflation Peaks in June 2022 January 31, 2023 9 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Jun Aug Oct Dec-19 market accounts. Source: Federal Reserve Board. 79% of gain to top 20% Balances peaked for all groups in 2022 Q1 Inflation = 14% real change is negative Checking + Savings + Money Market Accounts FY 2022-23 Revenues Through January January 31, 2023 13 Hits: 3 |
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdfFiscal Office Overview 1 Published Revenue Estimates 2 Major Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt 6 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 7 1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 5 The Pennsylvania Economy – Inflation and Gasoline Prices • Inflation is forecasted to remain low. Restrained economic growth will not put much upward pressure on prices Hits: 3 |
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdfthe horizon are certain to demand the attention of plan spon- sors in years to come. The first is healthcare inflation, which has and likely will remain well in excess of wage inflation for the foreseeable future. The second is the pending wave of baby boomer retirements. Considering these two items in tandem Hits: 3 |
2002_dbdc_report.pdfcost-of-living adjustments authorized by the General Assembly on an ad hoc basis to offset the negative effects of inflation on retiree benefits. Beginning in 1968, these cost-of-living adjustments have been authorized every four or five years, with should reflect rights and options available under the DB plan. DC plan contribution amounts and distribution options should also reflect inflation protection of benefits provided under the DB plan. Design should reflect whether the availability of distributions will be different for Hits: 3 |
Testimony-02-2020.pdf2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% Inflation -0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 1.8% Payroll Jobs (000s) 46.2 48.8 58 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 2019.4 Real GDP 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% -- Inflation 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% Payroll Jobs (000s) 64.1 60.4 50 Hits: 2 |
SR2013-07-section-4-data.xlsxDE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Figure 4.2 Annual Growth Rates for DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Nominal Gross State Product (GSP) includes inflation. Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office. Creator: Matthew Knittel LastModifiedBy: MJR Created: 2013- Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdfmotor collections consistent with higher consumer confidence, an improving labor market and increased disposable income. Receipts are restrained by low inflation for taxable consumer goods. Motor vehicle receipts are projected to display continued growth. Personal Income Tax – Deposits from employer withholding are projected to increase modestly due to increased employment and low wage inflation. Quarterly and annual remittances are expected to exhibit much stronger growth in FY14-15 because these revenues were suppressed in Hits: 2 |
REU-2020-02.pdf Pennsylvania taxable retail sales continue to show unusually strong growth, climbing to 6.5% in February. U.S. inflation accelerated in the fourth quarter. Sources and notes: 1. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—Survey of Households. 2 Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdfdelay means that the same loan balance will be repaid with dollars that are worth considerably less due to high inflation. For example, if a borrower had a debt balance of $25,000 prior to the moratorium, then the real value payments alone. 5 Those estimates do not include additional erosion in the real value of loans due to unusually high inflation. To quantify the impact from the resumption of loan payments, the analysis uses the IMPLAN input-output model for Pennsylvania Hits: 2 |
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdfthird year. Under the moratorium, loan repayments are suspended, and interest does not accrue on outstanding balances. Due to high inflation, the real value of the outstanding loans declines over time and will be repaid in dollars that have less value. Existing borrowers generally benefit during periods of unexpected high inflation, especially if interest does not accrue on outstanding loans. The moratorium is only one factor that may explain the larger Hits: 2 |
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdfwage gains will likely be pushed forward to final consumers. That outcome would put continued upward pressure on prices and inflation. If ongoing supply constraints also persist, then it is likely that high rates of inflation will not prove transitory. 1 See https://www.bls.gov/ect/ and https://apps.bea.gov/itable/index.cfm. Annual Hits: 2 |
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdfFiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2018 to 2021, 49 Pennsylvania counties recorded personal income gains that exceeded inflation (2.3% per annum), which implies real income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income income increases from 3.0% (excludes pandemic relief) to 5.3% per annum, and all counties exceed the rate of inflation for that period. (See table on pages 6 and 7.) Average personal income growth excluding pandemic relief ranged from -0 Hits: 2 |
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf85 billion of securities per month. o Hold down long-term interest rates such as mortgages. o Really: induce some inflation. Fed likely to “taper” or reduce purchases during next few months. o Long term: big issue is how the Fed Non-Motor Sales Tax collections remain weak. o For first quarter of FY 2013-14, revenues up 1.5%. o Inflation is approximately 1.5%. But, Motor Vehicle Sales Tax up roughly 7.0%. o Nationally, sales up roughly 10%. o Hits: 2 |
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdfS. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, Northeast Region, 2014-2015. 7/14/2017 21 Impact of Demographics and Inflation 7/14/2017 22 Hypothetical Program Older Resident Healthcare (1) Demographics (Service Population) 0.3% 2.5% (2) General Inflation 2.0% 2.0% (3) Healthcare Premium n.a. 1.5% Total Annual Budget Growth 2.3% 6.0% Five- Hits: 2 |
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdfRevenue Outlook 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation • Solid Labor Market • Some Wage Weakness Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 76% CNIT+82% State GDP +125% 14 General Expenditures Older Resident Healthcare (1) Demographics 0.3% 2.5% (2) General Inflation 2.0% 2.0% (3) Healthcare Premium n.a. 1.5% TOTAL ANNUAL FACTOR 2.3% 6.0% Five‐Year Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdfThe e-cigarette revenue projection is based on e-cigarette smoking prevalence, population and other to- bacco products inflation. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $84 $119 $130 $135 Growth Raten.a. n.a 2013 increased many of the fees imposed by Title 75 and tied future increases to the rate of inflation. In general, fees are adjusted on July 1 st of any calendar year ending in an odd number. The adjustment is based Hits: 2 |
NewsStand_2019_May.pdfThe preliminary data for calendar year 2018 show that the state economy expanded by 2.1% in real terms (excludes inflation). Quarterly annualized growth rates were as follows: 0.7% (Q1), 4.0% (Q2), 3.2% (Q3) and 2.5% (Q4). In nominal terms (includes inflation), the respective figures were 4.8% (annual) and 3.2% (Q1), 7.9% (Q2), 5.1% (Q3) and 4.2% Hits: 2 |
MTR-2019-09.pdfin August to 2.3%. The trend is largely due to housing (3.2%) and medi- cal care (4.1%) inflation. Recent data show strong wage growth for the U.S. (5.4%) and Pennsylvania (5.0%) in the second Department of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S Hits: 2 |
MTR-2016-12.pdffirst half of 2016) for Pennsylvania and contiguous states. The growth of real GDP measures total economic output (adjusted for inflation), and can be used to evaluate the rate at which a state economy expands or contracts. In Pennsylvania, real GDP three months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 2 |
MSC_March_31_2022.pdfProposed for FY 22-23: Minimum wage increase | corporate tax changes Main economic issues ▪ What happened to the labor force? ▪ Inflation for 2022 | wage-price spiral taking hold? Natural gas trends ▪ National and regional prices remain high | impact fee is elevated vs trendline Note: Thousands of jobs. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-seasonally adjusted. Recent Rapid Acceleration of Inflation March 31, 2022 13 Very High (Feb 22) Used Cars +42.7% Gasoline +31.6% Energy +25.1% New Cars Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2022.pdflow labor force participation rate and contracting demographics will continue to apply upward pressure on wage growth and economy wide inflation. Monthly Economic Update October 2022 Pre-COVID Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 5 20 figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2022.pdflow labor force participation rate and contracting demographics will continue to apply upward pressure on wage growth and economy-wide inflation. Monthly Economic Update November 2022 Pre-COVID Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 5 12 figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2023.pdfassess the performance of the spring housing market, which typically runs from March to July. As the Federal Reserve combats inflation, mortgage rates have increased dramatically, and analysts are evaluating whether high rates will have a material impact on home sales figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf9%) and all other (e.g., medical care, services and clothing, 31.8%) components. The February data also show that inflation is becoming more broad-based. For example, in June 2021, the transportation component contributed 2.8 percentage points of the figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdfresidences (2.3%). The CPI-U that excludes the Shelter component provides a more accurate measure of real-time consumer inflation because it reflects actual purchases during the month, and the data are not imputed. Moreover, analysts have noted the disconnect figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2022.pdflow labor force participation rate and contracting demographics will continue to apply upward pressure on wage growth and economy-wide inflation. Monthly Economic Update December 2022 Pre-COVID May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Change Payroll Jobs (000s) 5 11 figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 2 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_25_2023.pdfassess the performance of the spring housing market, which typically runs from March through July. As the Federal Reserve combats inflation, mortgage rates have increased dramatically, and analysts are evaluating whether higher rates will have a material impact on home sales figures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 2 |
MER-2015-06.pdfUnited States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions per capita is a useful metric to compare the performance of states because it represents total economic output (adjusted for inflation) and controls for changes in population, which can vary widely by state. From 2007 to 2014, Pennsylvania real GDP per Hits: 2 |
MER-2013-11.pdfStates Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdfthat begin or resume to remit the fee will be the same as the prior year; and (3) a regional inflation adjustment to the fee schedule will be applied. 6 The difference between the scenarios is whether or not a fee a specific quantity of gas from that hub. 6. Pursuant to 58 P.a.C.S. § 2302(c), a regional inflation adjustment is applied to the fee schedule, based on the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers for the Pennsylvania Hits: 2 |
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf6.42 in 2022. The trigger price increases by 7% per annum. Withheld allowances are not reoffered for sale. • High inflation will also impact nominal auction prices, and it may have different implications for compliance entities versus investors. The inflation rate assumed by the model was not published but appears modest (~2% per annum) given other price data. • Finally, the Hits: 2 |
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdfnegative impact on the national and state economies, especially if rates rise quickly. Finally, some analysts have raised concerns about inflation and inflated asset values, but it is too soon to know whether either could have a material impact on short-term economic Hits: 2 |
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdfBusiness Officials November 16, 2021 Two Parts Overview of IFO Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook ▪ Will workers return? ▪ Does inflation decelerate? ▪ Do budget surpluses last? Property Tax Update ▪ No look at COVID-19 impact on SD collections yet ▪ Some data growth Outlook - Uncertainty and Risks Unusually High Significant economic risks ▪ Workers eventually return ▪ No wage-price spiral that further broadens inflation ▪ No major stock or housing market correction Significant Policy Risks ▪ Stimulus impact lingers, but how much longer? ▪ Some remains | child Hits: 2 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf7.50 Pennsylvania 31 7.25 7.25 7.25 Other 31 7.25 7.25 7.25 Note: All inflation adjustments in this table use IHS Markit's U.S. CPI-U year-over-year growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Source: Economic Policy Institute. 1 Has one or more local areas in the state with a Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdffunding flat in FY 23-24 HB 612 (+7.6% growth) -$45 Higher Education flatlined all future years grow by inflation (+2.4%) -$47 Basic and Special Education grow with inflation +1.0% growth per annum -$94 State Police MLF funding remains at $375 million eliminate MLF funding of PSP -$375 Hits: 2 |
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf21 Real Estate +4 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dec 2021 vs Dec 2019 Recent Rapid Acceleration of Inflation March 4, 2022 11 Very High (Dec 21) Used Cars +38.1% Gasoline +37.4% Energy +25.1% New Cars in December Philadelphia CPI-U All Items Durable Goods cars, furniture ~10% of CPI +6.6% +19.0% Philadelphia Metro Inflation Accelerates March 4, 2022 12 CPI-U Year-Over-Year Growth Weight Feb 21 Jun 21 Dec 21 All Items Hits: 2 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdfreduction in wages and salaries paid to workers, the same magnitude of average job losses and slightly stronger inflation as measured by the Philadelphia CPI-U for calendar year (CY) 2020. Overall, the economic forecast is quite similar to the June However, the forecast for CY 2021 has been revised down for all economic variables, with the exception of inflation. The latest employment data for CY 2020 reveal rapid labor market improvement in May, June and July, but much more modest gains Hits: 2 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf7.25 7.25 Note: Over 50 localities have adopted a minimum wage above their state's minimum wage. 1 Inflation adjustments use a 2.0% growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Source: The Economic Policy Institute. Minimum Wage Tracker (as of January 3, 2020). 26 PA Workers Hits: 2 |
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdfPhilly CPI-U • Peaks June 2022 at 8.8% • Core excludes food and energy • Shelter continues to run very high • Inflation to remain elevated in 2024 due to (1) lagging shelter component (2) no more energy and durable goods deflation 0% grows by $40 billion per annum • 2023 grows ~$100 billion • Dec 19 to Dec 23: balances up +20%, same as inflation • Jan-Feb paydown cycle will reveal stress Slide 12 Mid-Year Update $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 Hits: 2 |
2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfStates Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include intangible assets (e.g., intellectual property). Personal Income The year-over- rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdfStates Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include intangible assets (e.g., intellectual property). Personal Income The year-over- rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfStates Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include intangible assets (e.g., intellectual property). Personal Income The year-over- rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfStates Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include intangible assets (e.g., intellectual property). Personal Income The year-over- rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdfStates Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdfStates Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdfStates Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 (2013.1 value is 2.5%) Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 (2013.1 value is 2.5%) Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and Hits: 2 |
2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf5% 6.3% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdfa. 6.3% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdfa. n.a. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf5% 7.2% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pen- sions, business and transfer income. Includes any infla- tionary gains. 1 Corporate Profits The year-over-year growth rate of domestic and foreign profits of U.S. corporations Hits: 2 |
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf2.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Note: GDP is in nominal dollars. Does not control for inflation. AAGR is average annual growth rate. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 5 Motion Picture-Video and Sound Recording GDP Hits: 1 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdfdescribed in the IFO’s Five- Year Outlook Report. Projected growth rates are a function of (1) service populations, (2) inflation and (3) various technical factors (e.g., an increased state share under the FMAP rate used to reimburse Medicaid costs Hits: 1 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf2021-22, the SAWW (2.4%) and ECI (2.7%) grew at similar average rates. Those averages reflect the low inflation that preceded the COVID-19 pandemic. Act 1 Index and Components 3.4% 4.1% 5.0% 4.2% 3 Hits: 1 |
RTR-2014-04.pdfprofits that occurred in March this year but normally occurs in June. Personal income tax withholding remittances were also artificially inflated by roughly $100-$105 million because of a due date falling on April 30 th this year, but May 1 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdfattributable to non-motor vehicle sales tax collections, and may have been impacted by (1) lack of price inflation due to internet shopping, (2) weaknesses in taxable business purchases (e.g., computers and furniture) and (3) general uncertainty regarding the outcome Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdfpayments for calendar year 2015 filers. Sales and Use Tax – The forecast projects moderate increases in consumer spending, but low inflation may restrain the overall growth rate of collections. Motor vehicle sales are projected to increase, but the rate of increase Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdfand $98 million higher for FY 2015-16, a two-year difference of $461 million. “FY 2014-15 revenues were inflated by various non-recurring events,” Knittel said. “Projections for FY 2015-16 anticipate continued economic growth, but the absence of Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf1) a tight labor market that resulted in very strong wage growth (PIT and SUT), (2) much higher than expected inflation rates (PIT and SUT), (3) unprecedented increases in capital gains and net business profits for tax year 2021 (PIT), (4 Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdfrate reduction) Temporary gas price dip, large volume of stock buybacks Wayfair court decision Low medical care inflation PA consumers do not appear to be overextended Modest growth in 2018 total consumer debt (+0.9%) Mortgage Hits: 1 |
Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdftax continues to be phased out, and gross receipts tax revenues registered a decline from April 2012 levels that were inflated by atypical deposits. Personal income tax remittances increased by $231 million (13.7%) over the prior year. The majority Hits: 1 |
REU-2020-01.pdfDepartment of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
REU-2019-12.pdfDepartment of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
REU-2019-11.pdfDepartment of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
REU-2019-10.pdfDepartment of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdfFPIG threshold), the federal update drove the increase in the maximum monthly benefit (+52% over four years), which outpaced grocery inflation as measured by the Philadelphia CPI-U for Food at Home (+25%). SNAP Benefits Received by Pennsylvania Residents November Data Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdfwhile fast food and counter workers will increase 7.4% (+10,000). Driven by a tight labor market and high inflation, hourly wages for these three occupations are projected to record strong growth for the lowest paid 10% of employees to Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdf000; and $35,001 to $45,000). Beginning with claim year 2024, PTRR income eligibility thresholds will be indexed to inflation. 1 Qualified income for purposes of the PTRR program excludes 50% of Social Security. Supplemental rebates equal to 50% of Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdftons per megawatt hour). Average residential electricity prices have fluctuated significantly due to COVID-19 and more recently, widespread energy inflation. From 2018 to 2021, the average price in Pennsylvania declined by 0.9%, but increased by 16.7% in 2022 Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdfincreased home schooling, care of elderly parents reluctant to enter nursing homes, recent accumulation of savings and wealth due to inflated asset markets, on-going COVID emergency declarations, early retirements, personal preferences (e.g., health concerns or greater value placed on Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdffor quarter). Higher nominal savings and wealth likely encouraged an unknown number of workers to depart the labor force. If inflation remains elevated, those workers may return eventually. Remote Learning: Cyber Charter Enrollment and Home Schooling In response to the pandemic Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdffor quarter). Higher nominal savings and wealth likely encouraged an unknown number of workers to depart the labor force. If inflation remains elevated, those workers may return eventually. Remote Learning: Cyber Charter Enrollment and Home Schooling In response to the pandemic Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdfthe department’s Bid Price Index (BPI) has increased by 5.1% per annum. 9 The BPI is DOT’s inflation index based on contractor’s cost of materials (e.g., structural steel, structural concrete) used for heavy road and bridge Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdfPersonal Income Growth From 2016 to 2019, nearly all Pennsylvania counties (except Cameron County) recorded personal income gains that exceeded inflation (1.5% per annum), which implies real income gains. Personal income includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income Hits: 1 |
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdfby Figure 2, 30 counties recorded an average growth rate under 4.5 percent. The average income gains significantly exceeded inflation (1.3 percent), which implies material real income gains for most counties. The weak growth for Philadelphia County is attributable Hits: 1 |
RB 2019 RACP.pdfbe the same as the limit enacted by Act 87 of 2005, although the real debt limit, after adjusting for inflation, would be considerably lower. To provide some context for the proposed change: The $100 million annual reduction is less Hits: 1 |
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdfby Figure 2, 25 counties recorded an average growth rate under 1.5 percent per annum. That rate slightly exceeded inflation, which suggests that residents of certain counties did not experience real income gains at a county-wide level. Eight of Hits: 1 |
PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf600/wk ends $300/wk ends Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Advance CTC starts Economy: Recent Acceleration of Inflation January 19, 2022 4 Very High Used Cars +38.1% Gasoline +37.4% Energy +25.1% New Cars +22.4% Hits: 1 |
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf Increases sales tax rate: 6.0% to 7.0%. Expands tax base. Distributions to school districts increase with inflation (~+2.0%). New revenues sufficient in first year, but increasing “wedge” over time. Analysis assumes the property tax that Hits: 1 |
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdftaxes as well as a weighted average Pennsylvania Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Pennsylvania nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP, includes inflation). Since FY 2004-05, the state economy has expanded by 62 percent, followed closely by school property tax (61 percent Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdfhistorical averages. • Reflects non-recession years only. • Really, a budget simulation exercise. Some Positives and Negatives. • Energy prices very low. Inflation and interest rates low. • Flat wage growth. Many wage earners essentially treading water. • Housing recovery less robust than assumed. 3 Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdfdistricts declined at an annual rate of 1% or more. Growing vs. declining districts. Faster growing districts may experience inflation- adjusted declines in per-student revenue. Districts with greatest enrollment declines may experience largest increases in per-student revenue Hits: 1 |
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf Increases sales tax rate: 6.0% to 7.0%. Expands tax base. Distributions to school districts increase with inflation. Recent proposal largely the same. Two major changes. Increases personal income tax: 3.07% to 4.95%. Distributions Hits: 1 |
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf5.5% Expenditures 8.Jun.2016 15 General Expenditures Older Resident Healthcare (1) Demographics 0.3% 2.5% (2) General Inflation 2.0% 2.0% (3) Healthcare Premium n.a. 1.5% TOTAL ANNUAL FACTOR 2.3% 6.0% Five‐Year Hits: 1 |
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdfmotor sales tax recovers. Base growth rate: ~+5% last six months. Motor vehicle purchases continue to lag. PA inflation remains subdued. For 2018 Q1 CPI-U for U.S. is 2.3%. For Philadelphia metro it is Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf1, 2020 begin six-year phase-in to $15.00 by 2025. 50 cent increment each year. Annual inflation adjustments thereafter. Increase cash minimum wage for tipped workers. From $2.83 to $12.00/hr. Same as non- Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdfModerate growth of historical cost drivers after 19-20. Pension systems achieve annual returns of 7.25%. Healthcare inflation does not accelerate from current rates. State economy operates at long-term potential. Real GDP +1.9% | Wages-Salaries Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf2017 2018 Avg. Number of Jobs 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% Inflation (CPI-U) 1.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% Wage Premium 0.4% Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdfcut continues to flow into economy. Corporate base expansion enhances revenues. Tight labor market sustains wage growth. Inflation accelerates above 2%. Helps pricing power. June.12.2018 2 Optimistic Revenue Outlook Wage income - statewide growth is strong. Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdfdistricts declined at an annual rate of 1% or more. Growing vs. declining districts. Faster growing districts may experience inflation- adjusted declines in per-student revenue. Districts with greatest enrollment declines may experience largest increases in per-student revenue Hits: 1 |
PICPA_Presentation.pdfto $3.50 per mcf. Post production costs assumed to be 87 cents per mcf in 2018 and increase with inflation. PA proposed severance tax disallows deduction for post-production costs. Source: Analysis of Revenue Proposals, IFO, April 2017. Minimum Wage Hits: 1 |
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf19 Note: Reflects current expenditures per student and excludes facilities acquisition, construction and improvement costs. Constant 2019 dollars, adjusted for inflation using CPI-U data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Digest Hits: 1 |
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdfof program participants in both tiers declined from 282,000 to 240,000 because income thresholds are not indexed to inflation. While the program also lost providers (pharmacies) over the same period (2,993 in 2016 to 2,933 in 2020 Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdfentities. Source: PEMA. "911 Annual Report: Calendar Year 2018." 1 Counties listed in the previous table may have inflated/deflated expenditures per call ratios due to the role of fiduciary counties. See previous table for more detail. 911 Emergency Telecommunication | Page Hits: 1 |
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf3 million payments | 2.2 million children | $554 million ▪ September first month with only CTC payments, no federal UC Higher inflation unlikely to be transitory ▪ Delayed response in housing and rental markets ▪ Pressures remain in both markets in short-term due Hits: 1 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf89 of 2013 increased many of the fees imposed by Title 75 and tied future increases to the rate of inflation. In general, fees are adjusted on July 1 of any calendar year ending in an odd number. The adjustment is Hits: 1 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf89 of 2013 increased many of the fees imposed by Title 75 and tied future increases to the rate of inflation. In general, fees are adjusted on July 1 of any calendar year ending in an odd number. The adjustment is Hits: 1 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf2013 increased many of the fees imposed by Title 75 and tied future increases to the rate of inflation. In general, fees are adjusted on July 1 of any calendar year ending in an odd number. The adjustment is based on Hits: 1 |
NFIB_Feb_2024.pdfPhilly CPI-U • Peaks June 2022 at 8.8% • Core excludes food and energy • Shelter continues to run very high • Inflation to remain elevated in 2024 due to (1) lagging shelter component (2) no more energy and durable goods deflation 0% Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2019_April.pdfbusiness income). For 2018 Q4 only, the respective growth rates were 4.4%, 4.2% and 4.7%. Philadelphia Regional Inflation Remains Subdued On March 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released regional CPI-U data for February 2019 Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_November.pdfquarters of 2018. The analysis also finds that the decline was somewhat larger for women. The analysis cites high- er inflation, declining union membership, less willingness to relocate for job-related reasons and domination of the labor market by larger firms Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_December.pdfboom since 1913. Since February 2012, U.S. home pric- es have increased by 53%. In real terms (controlling for inflation), home prices are up nearly 40%. The article notes that it is not possible to know when the boom will Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_August.pdfrecession. The first scenario hinges on the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in an attempt to hedge inflation and how that may conflict with recent federal tax cuts. The second scenario highlights increased debt as a contrib- utor Hits: 1 |
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdfeconomic growth. More service sector jobs; labor intensive. Jobs growth appears strong for 2017; same trends. Continued low inflation has mixed effects. Margins get squeezed. Hard to pass on costs. Real wage gains. Does not translate into Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-08.pdfDepartment of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-07.pdfDepartment of Revenue. 6. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-06.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-05.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-04.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-03.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-02.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2019-01.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-12.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-11.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-10.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-1.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-09.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-08.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-07.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-06.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-05.pdfthat reflects consumer optimism. Source: UM—Survey of Consumers. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-04.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-03.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2018-02.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-12.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-11.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-10.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-09.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-08.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-07.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-06.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-05.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-04.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-03.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-02.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-01.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-11.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-08.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-06.pdfthree months of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-05.pdfthree month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-04.pdfthree month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-03.pdfthree month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-02.pdfthree month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-01.pdfthree month of data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. The annual growth rate of personal income. Includes any inflationary gains. Source Hits: 1 |
MTR-2015-11.pdfof data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
MTR-2015-09.pdfof data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
MTR-2015-08.pdfof data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
MTR-2015-07.pdfof data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. For PA, values are annual growth rates for the entire year as quarterly data are not available. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Table_December_2020.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2022.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021_Indicators.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Oct_2023.pdfU.S. is the seasonally adjusted rate. Source: Redfin. 9. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021_Indicators.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2021.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_October_2020.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdfU.S. is the seasonally adjusted rate. Source: Redfin. 9. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 10. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdfdollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2023.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021_Indicators.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdfdollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2022.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Indicators.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021_Indicators.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Indicators_February_2022.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021_Indicators.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2022.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021_Indicators.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdffigures represent northeast region. Source: National Association of Realtors. 8. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdfdollars per MMBtu. Source: Bentek Energy. 6. Source: Zillow. 7. The quarterly, annualized real growth rate of the economy. Excludes inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8. Year-over-year growth rate of personal income. Source: U.S. Bureau Hits: 1 |
MER-2015-01.pdfUnited States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions Hits: 1 |
MER-2013-12.pdfUnited States Economic Indicators Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions Hits: 1 |
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdfin asset markets: stocks and housing 2 Student loan repayment moratorium ends in Fall ▪ Supreme Court disallows forgiveness plan 3 Inflation continues to decelerate ▪ April Philadelphia CPI-U = 4.7% | December to 3.8% May 24, 2023 2 US Economic Forecasts Hits: 1 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdfin asset markets: stocks and housing 2 Student loan repayment moratorium ends in Fall ▪ Supreme Court disallows forgiveness plan 3 Inflation continues to decelerate ▪ April Philadelphia CPI-U = 4.7% | December to 3.8% May 24, 2023 2 US Economic Forecasts Hits: 1 |
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdffee schedule reached its highest level since the fee’s inception. The higher fee schedule also includes the statutorily required inflation adjustment (6.4%, +$4,200 for new wells, total fee of $69,100) due to the annual increase in wells Hits: 1 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdfschedule to increase. For example, a horizontal well in operating year one in 2017 paid a fee that, including an inflation adjustment, was $5,400 more than the same type of well in 2016. Net impact: +$36.7 million. Collections Hits: 1 |
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdfhave adopted a minimum wage above their state's minimum wage. Projections use a 2.0% growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Source: The Economic Policy Institute. Minimum Wage Tracker (published January 7, 2021). Independent Fiscal Office 22 Hits: 1 |
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf31% 81% 19% 83% 17% 75 97% 110% 52% 78% 22% 83% 17% Note: Figures are per capita and exclude inflation. Figures pertain to all consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and Hits: 1 |
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdftwo five-year periods. Regarding the output, the following items are noted: • All estimates are in nominal terms and include inflation. • The analysis assumes that all of the diesel fuel tax cut and 10% of the gasoline tax cut flows to Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdfState (As of January 1st) Note: Over 50 localities have adopted a minimum wage above their state's minimum wage. Inflation adjustments use an estimated 2.8% for 2024 for 2.5% for 2025. Independent Fiscal Office 9 February 2024 Increasing Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdftime period last year. That is a solid figure compared to recent years. Wages grew by 3.6 percent, while inflation remains low, running at 1.4 percent for the first half of the calendar year. Each year, we typically receive Hits: 1 |
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdfpersonal income and sales taxes What do we assume going forward? Is a 4.0% UE rate normal? | Will inflation/interest rates increase? Implications for safety net programs, healthcare, pension returns November 14, 2019 21 Author: Lesley Rompalo Company Hits: 1 |
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdfbased on the same data source. The average cost is extrapolated over the five-year forecast window using an appropriate inflation factor. Expenditure projections are then equal to the product of forecasted service recipients and the average cost to provide services Hits: 1 |
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdf1, 2020 begin six-year phase-in to $15.00 by 2025. 50 cent increment each year. Annual inflation adjustments thereafter. Increase cash minimum wage for tipped workers. From $2.83 to $12.00/hr. Same as non- Hits: 1 |
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdfjobs than any year since 2000. The data also show that average wages grew by 3.0% compared to consumer inflation of 1.5%. The only downside to the state labor market is that nearly one-third of the net new Hits: 1 |
Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdfend of the current fiscal year, those funds will be nearly exhausted. Mandated employer contributions for pensions and healthcare inflation continue to drive much of the expenditure growth in the five year projections. The Pennsylvania economy will expand, but Hits: 1 |
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdfestimate for FY 2019-20 Most gains are in inheritance tax and escheats Labor market stronger than expected | inflation weaker Recent windfalls in sales and corporate net income taxes Expenditures concentrated in three agencies Education (41%) | Human Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdfhave adopted a minimum wage above their state's minimum wage. Projections use a 2.0% growth rate to estimate inflation adjustments for future years. Source: The Economic Policy Institute. Minimum Wage Tracker (published January 7, 2021). Independent Fiscal Office 22 Hits: 1 |
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdfrise again after 2025 because of the scheduled expiration of some provisions of the 2017 tax act. 13 Short Term ▪ Inflation ▪ Economic growth ▪ Labor supply ▪ Supply chains ▪ International issues Longer Term ▪ Fiscal trajectory ▪ Size of the labor force ▪ Productivity and capital Hits: 1 |
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdffundamental changes made to the corporate tax system during the time period. 11 The GDP computation uses nominal GDP (includes inflation) and excludes the government sector. Both growth rate computations use a two‐year average for FYs 2005‐06 / 2006‐07 Hits: 1 |
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdfWe have experienced an increase in students enrolling with special needs, and are seeing increased costs from COVID and inflation in general. The ESSER funds helped us, but we have huge concerns in how we will maintain needed programming and supports Hits: 1 |
Announcement_2021.pdfinvitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. Why have workers departed the state labor force? How long will inflation remain elevated? Does any pent-up demand remain from unspent federal stimulus? The IFO will present its annual report on Hits: 1 |
Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdfstable rates during the prior decade. The index for the decade prior to FY 2022-23 was impacted by low inflation and moderate wage growth. The recent increase was originally triggered by significant growth in the SAWW for FY 2022-23 Hits: 1 |
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdfg., Dominion South and Leidy) and are used in Table 3 to approximate the prices received by producers. 3. The inflation adjustment reflects the annual growth in the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers for the PA-NJ-DE-MD Hits: 1 |
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdfg., Dominion South and Leidy) and are used in Table 3 to approximate the prices received by producers. 3. The inflation adjustment reflects the annual growth in the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers for the PA-NJ-DE-MD Hits: 1 |
2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econ- omy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal in- come. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents Hits: 1 |
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf2.5% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions Hits: 1 |
2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf2.5% 7.2% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy. Excludes inflation. 1 Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U.S. personal income. Includes wages, interest, dividends, rents, pensions Hits: 1 |
2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf7% -3.7% 7.1% Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the US economy. Excludes infla- tion. Data are from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of US Hits: 1 |
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdfwhile minimizing risk. 38 Assume an investor plans to divide his money among n stocks selected from the entire market port- folio. The portfolio variance is given by: As the number of securities in the portfolio increases, the contribution to total Hits: 1 |
2001_hr266.pdfemployees in terms of providing a secure, well-defined benefit, 20010H0266R2371 - 2 - 1 a benefit payable for life, protection from inflation through 2 the ability to pay subsequent cost-of-living adjustments 3 (COLAs), the existence of death and disability benefits Hits: 1 |