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Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?

The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates.

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Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?

The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates.

03/08/2022

PPP loans to Pennsylvania Businesses

This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications.

12/08/2020

RB-2016-02.pdf

other equipment and build more than they would have otherwise. Incentive programs seek to accomplish this through expenditures, tax breaks, loans or grants. The report excludes provisions that are intended to reduce distortions attributable to the tax code. For example, the fund expenditures represent the second category of economic development incentives. These expenditures may be offered in the form of grants, loans or loan guarantees, general funding or a combination of the three. The administrative costs (e.g., staff salaries and operational

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

was enacted as part of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. 1 The program made forgivable loans available to small businesses and other entities that met certain criteria such as firms that (1) have 500 or fewer been adversely impacted by COVID-19 and related mitigation efforts. Due to those efforts, many firms suspended operations temporarily. The loans would be used to replace lost revenues and allow firms to retain employees who might otherwise be released. To qualify

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

FY 2018-19, the authorities displayed in the table above directly authorized more than $533 million in grants, loans, investments and bond deals as agents of the Commonwealth. That amount does not include tax credits and other awards that are related created or jobs re- tained (both pledged and actual). Jobs reported as “retained” as part of grant and loan agreements often simply represent employees already employed at a firm. In practice, there is no simple method that could be used to

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

Operations ............................................................................... 17 Activity 4: Recovery and Mitigation .......................................................................... 21 Activity 5: Hazardous Materials ................................................................................ 25 Activity 6: Fire Grants and Loan Program.................................................................. 27 Activity 7: OSFC Training and Certification ................................................................ 31 Activity 8: Administration ......................................................................................... 33 Appendix ................................................................................................................ 35 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review event of natural and other disasters. The agency, through the Office of the State Fire Commissioner (OSFC), provides loans to volunteer fire, ambulance and rescue companies, and coordinates state fire services. The agency also administers post- disaster aid to affected localities

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RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf

On August 24, 2022, the Biden administration announced plans to forgive a portion of outstanding federal student loans and to enact various changes to the program. The main provisions are as follows: • Borrowers earning less than $125,000 up to $20,000 of debt relief. The forgiven debt would not be subject to federal income tax. • The student loan forbearance is extended through December 2022. It is the seventh extension (two under the prior administration), and the administration asserts

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

a Freddie Mac Research Note from March 2019 analyzed the Federal Housing Finance Agency National Survey of Mortgage Originations for loans originated from January 2013 through December 2016. 1 For borrowers who refinanced and their new mortgage amount was higher than the closed loan, the extra funds were used for the following purposes:  Pay off other bills or debts (40 percent)  Home

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

 Personal income recorded strong growth due to special unemployment compensation programs, economic impact payments and Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. 2  For 2020 Q4, the latest data reveal year-over-year wage growth after two quarters of contraction.  to improve, partly due to a contraction of the labor force. 2 The National Income and Product Accounts include PPP loans with Proprietor’s Income or Personal Dividend Income, which are part of state Personal Income. Those amounts include forgiven loans

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

in the Chesapeake Bay watershed that utilize tax credits to incentivize the implementation of BMPs. Other states rely on grants, loans, technical assistance programs or the creation and enforcement of land management regulations. ▪ For 2019, the average REAP project totaled $60 list of certain, high-priority BMPs that when implemented within a watershed covered under a federally-approved total maximum daily load (TMDL) are eligible for a tax credit worth 90 percent of costs. 6 High-priority practices that are eligible for

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

REGION The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) publishes quarterly state data on consumer debt. The data span major loan types, such as mortgage, auto, credit card and student loan, and provide insight as to whether consumers are accumulating or paying down debt. For Pennsylvania and most nearby states, total

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

broadband infrastructure (both mobile and fixed-line). A small subset of those states (seven) offer a tax credit, loan or loan assistance, but most states provide grants to offset a portion of broadband capital expenditures. (See Table 3.1.) Many of these states

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RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf

Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau. Demographics data from U.S. Census and IFO projections (2021). Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting Employment? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 While many factors motivate these that may have contributed to the significant decline in employment-population ratios for the two age cohorts is the student loan moratorium, which now enters its third year. Under the moratorium, loan repayments are suspended, and interest does not accrue on

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RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

The brief divides economic development incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or awarded and reflect the utilization of tax credits (i.e., the application against tax liability). Data on state spending, grants and loans are from the Department of Community and Economic Development. Information on certain tax credits and spending programs that was not

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

20. The brief divides economic development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The dollar amounts reported in the table for each category are estimates of the total incentives claimed or awarded and reflect the utilization of tax credits (i.e., the application against tax liability). Data on state spending, grants and loans are from the Department of Community and Economic Development. Information on certain tax credits and spending programs that was not

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

sector employers. Many of these companies have been encouraged to locate, remain or expand in Pennsylvania through state grant and loan programs, and in some cases, through special legislation. For example, Governor Rendell personally participated in the groundbreaking ceremony for Westinghouse To induce the company to keep its headquarters in Pennsylvania, the Commonwealth provided more than $10 million in grants and loans, according to a news release from the Governor’s Office (see Appendix XII). Westinghouse is owned by Toshiba Corp., which

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

bankruptcy or near bankruptcy of three large mortgage lenders. 4 Large financial institutions began to conserve capital and sharply reduced loans to consumers, businesses and other financial institutions. In an effort to restore liquidity to financial markets, the Federal Reserve lowered American Home Mortgage filed for bankruptcy, Ameriquest discontinued its mortgage operations and Countrywide Financial Corporation accepted an $11 billion emergency loan from a consortium of banks. In 2006, Countrywide Financial financed nearly 20 percent of all mortgages in the US. The

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

in 2014.  Relative to income, consumer debt levels have declined dramatically during the past decade. Moreover, growth in student loan debt shows recent signs of slowing.  A solid housing market. Data suggest that existing home sales increased by 10 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. (2) Pennsylvania Consumers Auto loan debt continues to expand rapidly. Home mortgage debt (includes home equity loans) is flat. Pennsylvania student loan debt growth decelerates

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Special-Funds-Response-Letter-03-08-2019.pdf

730 Banking and Securities Banking 28,346 Community & Economic Development Ben Franklin Technology Development 25,034 Local Government Capital Project Loan 1,100 Machinery and Equipment Loan 48,600 Minority Business Development 2,590 Municipalities Financial Recovery 7,806 Small Business First 34,456 Conservation & Natural Resources

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

contraction affects all age groups, but is relatively stronger for workers under age 35. 2 2 See “Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting Employment?” (March 2022) at http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/down- load.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf. 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 2022.1 2022.2 Real GDP

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

and expanded child tax credits provides nearly $400 million to Pennsylvania residents in CY 2022. 2 See “Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting Employment?” (March 2022) at http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/down- load.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf. 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 2022.1 2022.2 Real GDP

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

second half of CY 2021. ▪ Commonwealth firms and non-profits received $20.7 billion of forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans in CY 2020: $11.3 billion to pass-through businesses (sole proprietors, partnerships, S corporations), $7.6 billion to C 33.5 16.7 2.0 -- -50.3 -- EIPs + Child Tax Credit 11.1 24.9 -- -- 124.3 -- PPP Forgiven Loans 13.1 7.1 -- -- -45.9 -- Social Security 50.6 52.5 54.5 4.0 3.7 3.9

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

injected into the economy by the state or federal government that do not need to be repaid and excludes general loans to businesses that cannot be forgiven. Details regarding the estimates are as follows:  The individual rebates are based on UC Paid by Federal Government $10.1 $11.7 Various Business Tax Cuts $4.3 $4.3 Forgivable Small Business Loans $12.5 $12.5 Federal Grants to State Government $4.6 $4.6 Federal Grants to Local Government $3.4

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

was driven by a 4.5% ($424 billion) increase in mortgage debt, a 3.4% ($45 billion) increase in auto loan debt, and a 3.2% ($48 billion) increase in student loan debt over the prior year. During the same period, credit card debt and home equity line of credit debt fell

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

Forecasts by IFO. The Pennsylvania Economy (5) Pennsylvania Consumer Debt and Spending For 2016: auto, home equity (HELOC) and student loan debt show strong growth; home mortgage debt contracts. Decline in mortgage debt may be due to (1) an aging population increase every year. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Consumer Debt Auto Loans (10%) -2.2% -5.7% 0.8% 5.5% 6.1% 6.3% 9.2% 8.9% 7.6% Credit

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

Forecasts by IFO. The Pennsylvania Economy (5) Pennsylvania Consumer Debt and Spending For 2016: auto, home equity (HELOC) and student loan debt show strong growth; home mortgage debt contracts. Decline in mortgage debt may be due to (1) an aging population increase every year. Year-Over-Year Growth Rates 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Consumer Debt Auto Loans (10%) -2.2% -5.7% 0.8% 5.5% 6.1% 6.3% 9.2% 8.9% 7.6% Credit

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

amounts above “normal” payments), economic impact payments (EIPs, $11 billion) and lost wage assistance ($2 billion), Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans to certain businesses ($5 billion) and non-profits ($2 billion) and distributions from the Provider Relief Fund ($3 billion) to Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income” by state, which included a total of $5.2 billion for PPP loans to Pennsylvania sole proprietors and partnerships. Dollar figures for PPP loans are not available at the county level, so IFO

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

of statutory changes that were enacted with the state budget and (2) the extension of the moratorium on federal student loan repayments and the forgiveness of up to $20,000 in federal student loan debt announced on August 24, 2022. The adjustments are summarized in Table 1 and additional detail can be found in

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

7.3% Cigarette and OTP 1,331 46.0% 448 -3.1% Inheritance 1,013 5.3% 4 4.9% Loan and Transfers 266 n.a. 266 n.a. All Other 3,658 -5.8% 104 -8.5% Note: dollar amounts PA consumers reluctant to spend.  Modest wage gains.  PA mortgage debt continues to fall (higher savings).  Auto loans remain strong. 25.Jan.2017 15 What Drives Weak Sales Tax? Year-Over-Year Growth Rates 2015.3 2015.4

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

second half of CY 2021. ▪ Commonwealth firms and non-profits received $20.7 billion of forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans in CY 2020: $11.3 billion to pass-through businesses (sole proprietors, partnerships, S corporations), $7.6 billion to C 33.5 16.9 2.0 -- -49.6 -- EIPs + Child Tax Credit 11.0 24.7 -- -- 124.5 -- PPP Forgiven Loans 13.1 6.3 -- -- -52.0 -- Social Security 50.6 52.5 54.5 4.0 3.7 3.9

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

HELOC Mortgage Debt 5.1% 1.8% 3.1% -3.4% -10.1% -3.7% n.a. Student Loan Debt 5.1% 4.1% 5.8% 3.9% 6.5% 3.9% n.a. Credit Card Debt 2.3% 3.0% 3.9% 4.5% 6.9% 4.3% n.a. Auto Loan Debt 8.2% 7.6% 5.4% 3.1% 2.0% 5.0% n.a. % Mortgage Debt Delinquent 4.1% 2.5%

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

4% -- FHFA House Price Index 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5.4% 5.2% -- Per Capita Consumer Debt Auto Loans 7.6% 5.4% 3.1% 2.0% 5.1% -- Credit Card 3.0% 3.9% 4.5% 6.9% 1.2% -- All Mortgage 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% -1.1% 3.9% -- Student Loan-Other 3.6% 5.3% 5.2% 4.9% 3.1% -- All Debt 1.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0

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Independent Fiscal Office

June 23, 2022 and the statutory changes that were enacted with the FY 2022-23 state budget. ... (Full Report) Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Economics and Other August 31, 2022 The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. ... (Full Report) August 2022 Monthly Economic Update Revenue & Economic Update

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

June 7, 2017 5 -$40 -$200 -$300 -$300 -$60 PIT Non-Wage PIT Wages Corp Net Income Sales Tax Net Loans Note: Dollar amounts are in millions. Income Does Not Translate to Spending June 7, 2017 6 Year-Over-Year Growth Limited borrowing by PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. Recent PA Economic Trends Recent Economic Trends June 7, 2017 11 2016.2 2016.3 2016.4 2017.1 2017

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MER-2014-02.pdf

percent) through 2013. (See table.) Large reductions in mortgage and credit card debt were partially offset by gains in student loan and auto debt. Some analysts were surprised that this deleveraging process continued into 2013 since it appeared to have ended 2014 Per Capita Debt Levels ‐ Pennsylvania Consumers 1 thousands of dollars Credit Student Annual Change Year Auto Card Mortgage 2 Loan 3 Total Dollar Percent 2003 $2,710 $2,820 $18,090 $3,210 $26,830 2004 2,650 2,950

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

311 6 Unemployment Rate 14.3 10.1 7.1 7.3 7.0 6.4 5.7 7 Auto Loan Debt -1.7% 1.9% 2.6% 2.5% 12.7% 9.9% 8.9% 8 Credit Card Debt -8 0 0.0 Infrastructure and Technology Assistance 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 2.0 State Loan Programs PIDA Loan Program 41.7 76.9 42.1 24.4 26.1 35.0 Machinery and Equipment Loans

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IFO ppt.pdf

The Economic Outlook • Recession continues to restrain economic growth. • Consumers: continue to deleverage. • Financial Institutions: continue to write-off bad loans, reluctant to lend. • Non-Financial Firms: profits at or near historic highs; reluctant to hire and invest until demand returns 2011 Consumer Credit / Personal Disposable Income January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Banks: Bad Loan Write-Offs Declining $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 FDIC Bad Loans Written Off

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

economic conditions necessitate it. Economic Outlook | Page 12 ▪ Commonwealth firms and non-profits received $20.7 billion of forgivable PPP loans in CY 2020 and another $10.0 billion in CY 2021. ▪ Direct state support reflects funds allocated directly to states Social Security in- come. However, for CY 2020, federal programs such as unemployment compensation, economic impact payments and forgivable PPP loans provided nearly all of the income gains. Those amounts declined modestly in CY 2021 as wage and capital income surged

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

market correction | S&P 500 down 7% in January ▪ Fed tightening and raising interest rates ▪ Expiration of remaining relief: student loans, SNAP, rent assistance January 31, 2022 1 Economic Forecast: Stronger Wages and Inflation January 31, 2022 2 Annual Growth Rates 5 Econ. Imp. Payment 10.9 0.1 -- 5.7 15.3 -- -- Expanded CTC -- -- -- -- -- 1.7 1.7 PPP Forgiven Loans 20.4 0.3 -- 8.0 2.0 -- -- Total 42.8 12.6 3.6 19.8 23.6 6

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Total 78.0 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.8 Note: Figures in dollar billions. Source: See text for a description of methodology and sources. Table 1.3 Federal and that 80 percent of eligible taxes are shifted. This provision enhances immediate cash flow.  The small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) are based on data pub- lished by the Small Business Administration. The loans will be forgiven

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

presents the UC Trust Fund balance and indebtedness from 2010 to 2020 and projections through 2030. The purple bars include loans from the federal government, and bonds issued to repay those loans. Bonds were paid off entering 2020, but the influx of individuals into the system due to pandemic unemployment in 2020

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

Metric Highlights FY 19-20, $ 231m funding for key development programs ▪ PA First ($25m) | Small Bus. First ($15m) | Machinery-Equip Loans ($12m) ▪ Job Training: WEDNet, IRC, PREP ($21m) ▪ Ben Franklin Technology ($14.5m) | Life Sciences ($3m) ▪ KIZ Tax Credit ($15m) | R quantify jobs impact from current incentives January 23, 2020 16 DCED Metric Highlights Business Attraction and Financing (PA First, SBF Loans, MEL) ▪ Full Compliance Monitoring: 1 in 10 selected for payroll audits ▪ Roughly 10% (SBF) to 20% (MEL) of loans default

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Total 78.7 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.5 Note: Figures in dollar billions. Source: See text for a description of methodology and sources. Table 1.3 Federal and that 80 percent of eligible taxes are shifted. This provision enhances immediate cash flow.  The small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) are based on data pub- lished by the Small Business Administration. The loans will be forgiven

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

to school service during emergency.--When, in the judgment of the employer, an emergency creates an increase in the work load such that there is serious impairment of service to the public or in the event of a shortage of appropriate result in either membership in the system or participation in the plan to be eligible to receive a distribution. (d) Loans.--Loans or other distributions, including hardship or unforeseeable emergency distributions, from the plan to school employees who have not terminated

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

8% FHFA House Price Index -- 5.1% -- -- 5.1% 2018.3 2018.4 2019.1 2019.2 2019.3 Auto Loan 1.5% 2.0% 3.6% 5.0% 4.7% Credit Card Loan 4.0% 6.9% 3.0% 4.3% 1.0% All Mortgage Loans 0.6% -1.1% -1.3% 4

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RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf

at the national level, it does appear that older workers departed the labor force at a relatively higher rate. • Student loan moratorium. Despite historically low unemployment rates and strong demand for labor, the student loan repayment moratorium entered its third year and has been extended seven times from March 2020 to December 2022, and impacts

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RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf

those under the normal retirement age, or anyone regardless of age, who retires earlier than they would otherwise? • Ongoing student loan moratorium. Despite historically low unemployment rates and strong demand for labor, the student loan repayment moratorium entered its third year, and could impact up to 1.8 million state residents who retain $3,000

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Newsstand_2018_June.pdf

over-year basis, the data reveal the following growth rates for total Pennsylvania consumer debt for the first quarter: student loans (5.0%), credit cards (4.7%), primary mortgages (1.8%), auto loans (1.2%) and home equity loans (-0.2%). Total consumer debt increased by 2.5%. By comparison, total debt of

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

16% a month prior. More than 81% of surveyed firms reported seeking a Small Business Administration Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan. By May 10, nearly 90% of firms reported having received a loan—up from only 6% for the week ending April 12. Of firms receiving a loan, 68% reported the loan helped

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

After Summer Recovery At the program’s peak in June 2020, 4.3 million U.S. homeowners (8.6% of loans) entered into mortgage forbearance plans. By mid-November, nearly 40% of participants had exited these plans and total participants fell to 2.7 million homeowners (5.5% of loans). Since November, exits from forbearance plans have flattened coinciding with a slower pace of jobs recovery, increased COVID-19 cases

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

leases if they are current with their monthly payments. Hence, housing and rental price pressures may be delayed. PA Auto Loan Debt Increased Nearly 13% in 2021 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released consumer debt data for 2021 Q2. Pennsylvania auto loan debt grew 12.7% from 2020 Q2, the fastest rate of growth across the six consumer debt categories, driven by

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

but growth is deceler- ating. Rent growth increased by double digits for most metro areas, but is also decelerating. ▪ Auto loan debt surged in CY 2021, but growth decelerated in CY 2022. By contrast, credit card debt expanded rapidly and debt Rent - Scranton 14.4 17.3 15.1 13.1 13.2 11.4 36.2 PA Consumer Debt Auto Loan 12.7 9.9 8.9 7.4 5.0 -- 16.3 Credit Card -6.2 -2.8 3.1

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

0.0 PA Dairy Investment Program (CFA) 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 5.5 0.0 State Loan Programs PIDA Loan Program 49.2 41.7 76.9 42.1 24.4 30.0 Machinery and Equipment Loans 5.1 4

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

1% Cigarette 1,241 -1.7% 0 1,241 -1.7% Gaming Expansion 0 N/A 103 103 N/A Loan-Lease-Transfers 4 N/A 2,000 2,004 N/A All Other 4,833 1.7% -30 4,803 284 -12 Cigarette 705 -3.1% 723 -18 1,231 -10 Gaming Expansion 96 N/A 27 70 188 85 Loan-Lease-Transfers 216 N/A 2 214 1,937 -67 All Other 1,598 8.8% 1,542 55 4

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

20 percent down payment. However, the housing market’s recovery is still fragile. Relatively high unemployment rates and high student loan debt may be hindering potential first-time home- buyers from entering the market (see graph). This af- fects the 25 and Success, finds that 70 per- cent of graduates from Pennsylvania’s four-year public and private institutions have student loan debt, with the average debtor owing nearly $30,000. The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) of recent graduates may impede

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

as investment allocation flexi- bility increases. Long-term budget pro- jections are facilitated by predictable funding requirements. Benefit Accrual Back-loaded. Benefit accrual rate great- est in years immediately before retire- ment. Favors long-term employees. Front-loaded. Benefit accrual rate great- est in initial years of employment. Fa- vors short-term employees. Benefit Distribution Benefit is only

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf

brownfield revitalization. Most state programs focus on one or more of the following areas: (1) reducing lender risk by offering loan guarantees or environmental insurance subsidies, (2) re- ducing the borrower’s cost of financing via subsidized interest, (3) releasing the reduce the overall cost of redevelopment. State Brownfield Programs In Pennsylvania, the Land Recycling Program provides grants and low interest loans to cover up to 75 percent of the cost of completing an environmental study and cleanup under the Industrial Sites

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

11.6 17.0 Rent – Pittsburgh 3.9 7.0 8.3 8.5 8.1 14.6 PA Auto Loan Debt 12.7 9.9 8.9 7.4 -- 17.0 PA Credit Card Debt -6.2 -2.8 3 Mortgage Debt 4.2 6.3 6.4 4.4 -- 14.2 Note: Primary mortgage includes closed-end home equity loans. For 2022.2, S&P 500 Index uses data through May 18 and Rents use April only. FHFA Home Price

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

and mortgage debt?  Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004 o Wave of college-age students: more student loan debt. o Does debt cause delays in home purchases, marriage and child bearing, thereby restraining growth? 12.June.2014 5 from 2013 preliminary data. Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics and IFO (forecast). Employment: 2007 vs. 2014  Student Loan debt up dramatically. o Debt burden reduces ability to purchase homes and cars. o Less discretionary income, lower credit scores

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

time in a designated HPSA for no less than three years. 6 LRP is the Pennsylvania Primary Care Loan Repayment Program which offers grant funding to repay qualifying education debt in exchange for a two-year service commitment to a practice Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013-2017 Survey Results. Notes: 1 Funds used for the Pennsylvania Primary Care Loan Repayment Program. 7 An alternative payment model designed to address the financial challenges faced by rural hospitals by transitioning from fee-for-

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

companies that elect to be taxed as partnerships for federal tax purposes are also exempt from tax. Banks, savings and loan agencies and insurance companies remit other corporate levies in lieu of the CNIT. Methodology The CNIT model is a simplified total cash income and (2) adjusted to reflect economic impacts not reflected in income (e.g., expiration of the student loan moratorium, higher inflation, etc.). Model projections are gross of any trans- fers, which are deducted from projections to derive net

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

PA consumers increased by 0.5% from 2018 Q1. Detail for the various categories of debt were as follows: auto loans (3.6%), credit cards (3.0%), mortgages (-0.3%), home equity loans (-11.5%) and student loans (4.3%). By comparison, total per capita debt for all U.S. consumers increased by

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NewsStand_2019_July.pdf

by recent collections lawsuits, the study followed two cohorts and found that debt cancellation for borrowers in default on student loans led to a 25% reduction in total debt from other accounts including credit cards, auto loans and home loans. These borrowers were also more likely than the cohort who did not receive student debt relief to

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

(717) 230-8293 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News PA Student Loan Debt Continues to Climb in 2018 Q3 On November 16, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released consumer debt data for 2018 Q3. For Pennsylva- nia, the data show that per capita student loan debt across all consumers increased by 7.2% on a year-over-year basis. For other types of debt, the

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Newsstand_2018_August.pdf

a modest increase in per capita consumer debt (0.6%) from the same quarter in the prior year. While auto loan (0.5%), credit card (4.5%) and student loan (5.0%) debt increased, primary mortgage (-0.6%) and home equity loans (-4.5%) declined. By comparison, per capita consumer

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MTR-2017-05.pdf

capita consumer debt levels increased (1.3%) during the past nine months. An increase in credit card, auto and student loan debt more than offset a slight decline in mortgage debt. Second, the PA labor market could be weak, generating few Price Index 11 5.9% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,690 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,430 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 Industrial Electricity

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MTR-2017-04.pdf

home after graduation to save money. Without rent or mortgage payments, more income can be used to pay down student loans. Despite an outflow to other states, there were over 34,000 graduates who moved to Pennsylvania in 2015. New York Price Index 11 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% n.a. 3.3% 4.1% 4.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,690 $4,830 $4,920 n.a. $5,430 $5,590 $5,690 n.a. Industrial Electricity

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MER-2014-11.pdf

the unusually cold winter at the start of 2014 may have de‐ layed home purchases. Second, tighter lending standards, student loan debt and relatively Ðlat wages may prevent younger, Ðirst‐ time homebuyers from entering the market. For cur‐ rent homeowners, there higher. Third, the number of mortgages in foreclosure has fallen in recent quarters. This suggests that many properties with subprime loans made pre‐recession may have already gone through the foreclosure pro‐ cess and been resold. CoreLogic, a data and analytics

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

All Consumer Debt 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 0.0% n.a. 9.6% 2.0% 0.9% Student Loan Debt 5.6% 3.6% 5.3% 3.3% n.a. 7.3% 4.9% 3.9% Note: Source: U Labor Statistics, Federal Housing Finance Agency. Forecasts for 2018 by IFO. Most data for 2017 are preliminary. Consumer and student loan debt are per capita, and data for 2017 are through third quarter. 6 PA Employment Gains and Losses by Sector

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FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdf

and five other states (plus D.C.) are part of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement ▪ Sets a “total maximum daily load” for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and sediment pollution to be completed by 2025 ▪ Each state has their own load goals. Must develop Watershed Implementation Plans approved by the EPA. Pennsylvania and Virginia the only states with tax credits ▪ Most

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 7 The Pennsylvania Economy – Consumer Debt • While per capita student loan debt continues to rise (3.9 percent in 2013:3), consumers are paying down or taking on less “all other by $1,360 from the previous year. The reduction is due to lower mortgage and credit card balances. PA Student Loan and All-Other Debt Per Capita – Year Over Year Growth Rates “All Other” includes mortgage, credit card, auto and other

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Federal Tax Changes for 2013 3 The Pennsylvania Economy Employment 4 Inflation and Gasoline Prices 5 Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt 6 General Fund Revenues Sales and Use Tax – Nonmotor 7 Sales and Use Tax – Motor Vehicles 8 Personal Income 4.0% 5.0% $1.50 $2.50 $3.50 $4.50 6 The Pennsylvania Economy – Consumer Debt and Student Loan Debt • Consumer debt has leveled off since the end of the recession, stabilizing household balance sheets. Some consumers may have

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TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf

7 See Community Revitalization Fund Program Overview and Request for Proposals for full details. https://www.phfa.org/mhp/developers/loans.aspx. Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit Overview | Page 7 sources for mixed-use projects. PHFA is required to publish a minimum funding request is $500,000 and the maximum request is $1.0 million. https://www.phfa.org/mhp/developers/loans.aspx. 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Total Number of Applicants 1 -- 9 15 15 39 Total Funds

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

incubator programs that appear on an applicant’s tax return. Gross revenues exclude rents, sales of tax credits, loans and funds from investors. Revenues for multi-location or out-of-state firms are apportioned to the KIZ based on a property and the additional spending beyond the state tax credit could be attributable to various sources including private investors, loans, federal grants, internal funds and grants from educational institutions. The second part reflects the technical and other support provided to firms that

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RTR-2014-07.pdf

include one-time transfers of $95 million from the Small Business First Fund, $85 million from the Machinery and Equipment Loan Fund, $30 million from the Volunteer Companies Loan Fund, $8 million from the State Gaming Fund, $2 million from the Manville Property Damage Settlement Account, and $6 million

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

Child Tax Credit 0.0 3.5 3.5 Total Individual Programs 38.4 39.6 78.0 PPP Forgivable Loans $20.7 $10.1 $30.8 Direct State-Local Support 8.7 31.0 39.7 Other Support 5.4 4 $0.3 EIPs 10.9 0.1 -- 18.2 3.1 -- -- Expanded CTC -- -- -- -- -- 1.7 1.7 PPP Forgiven Loans 20.4 0.3 -- 8.0 2.1 -- -- Total 42.8 12.6 3.6 32.4 10.3 4

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

IPUMS)  Impacts 48,100 renter households | $224 million debt | $4,700 average Taxable status of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans  Nearly all will be forgiven | IRS determines it is taxable (April 2020)  $525 billion US loans (CNIT base) | $21 billion to PA businesses (PIT base)  Estimates assume they will be effectively non-taxable  If

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

0.5 Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 Total $78.0 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.8 Note: Billions of dollars. Federal UC Payments include FPUC, PUA and 13 week extension. FPUC – Federal Pandemic UC in a temporary bubble?  Extra $600/week ends in mid- to late-July | windfall for some workers  PPP loans/grants buys limited time for businesses  One-time purchases to enable telecommuting  Lack of seasonal sales still to

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

the designated source in the amounts indicated below: Small Business First Fund $95.0 million Machinery and Equipment Loan Fund 85.0 million Volunteer Companies Loan Fund 30.0 million Gaming Control Board 1 8.0 million Alternative Fuels Fund 6.2 million Manville Property Damage Settlement Account

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

ownership and mortgage debt? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004.  Wave of college-age students: more student loan debt.  Does debt restrain growth by delaying home purchases, marriage and child bearing? 2015 Pennsylvania Population Distribution 7/14 Limited borrowing by PA consumers.  Mortgage debt falls in first quarter.  Increases to credit card, auto and student loans. PA Economic Forecast 7/14/2017 27 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real Gross Dom. Product 1.6% 1

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

ownership and mortgage debt?  Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004. • Wave of college‐age students: more student loan debt. • Does debt cause delays in home purchases, marriage and child bearing, thereby restraining growth? 7 Three Demographic Waves 12  Sales and Use Tax. • Elderly buy fewer durable goods that are taxable. Significant purchases of healthcare and medications. • Student loan debt crimps taxable purchases. Personal Income Tax. • Larger share of income not subject to tax. • Wage income less important. • Non‐

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

the environmental impact of the agriculture industry. ▪ NMPs are Nutrient Management Plans implemented by farming operations to minimize groundwater nutrient loads. Data for 2016 and 2017 include manure management plans from prior years. ▪ Chesapeake Bay pollution includes nitrogen, phosphorous and sediment Tax Exemption for the transfer of preserved farmland to a qualified beginning farmer, (2) support for conservation with low-interest loans for conservation practices and an in- crease in the availability and cap of the REAP Tax Credit ($3 million) and

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

is to meet EPA requirements in the specified time frame, such as the EPA’s Total Maximum Daily Load reduction goals by 2025. The expected outcome is to protect water quality and the wildlife, tourists and industries that rely on the 2,087 2,773 3,599 4,364 7,694 12,700 Energy saved from PEDA grants and loans (MWh/yr) 4 -- -- -- -- 16,802 59,133 Level 2 Electric Vehicle Charging Stations -- -- -- -- 395 445 DC Fast Charging Stations -- -- -- -- 70 79 Compressed

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

7.1 $1.7 $48.5 $16.3 $0.8 Rank 19 9 16 1 4 31 Net loans to assets 1 72.5% 70.1% 73.3% 69.7% 68.7% 77.3% Rank 11 20 10 23 26 4 181 185 n.a. Sub-Total 1,260 1,207 1,176 1,086 1,057 n.a. Loan Related Companies Consumer Discount Company Act 192 232 324 321 330 n.a. Credit Services Act 17 20 20 25 30 n

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

12 7.4% 2.4 0.6% Hazardous Materials 10 6.4% 3.8 0.9% Volunteer Fire Grants and Loan Program 8 5.3% 48.6 11.5% 911 Emergency Telecommunication 7 4.4% 290.9 68.7% Total 160 00 0.00 0.65 Hazardous Materials 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 Vol. Fire Grants & Loan Prog. 0.00 -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.50 Total 13.52 2.85 0.25 0.25

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

Child Tax Credit 0.0 3.5 3.5 Total Individual Programs 38.4 40.5 78.9 PPP Forgivable Loans $20.7 $10.0 $30.7 Direct State-Local Support 8.7 30.8 39.5 Other Support 5.4 4 $0.3 EIPs 10.9 0.1 -- 18.2 3.1 -- -- Expanded CTC -- -- -- -- -- 1.7 1.7 PPP Forgiven Loans 20.4 0.3 -- 8.0 2.1 -- -- Total 42.8 12.6 3.6 32.4 10.3 4

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

companies that elect to be taxed as partnerships for federal tax purposes are also exempt from tax. Banks, savings and loan agencies and insurance companies remit other corporate levies in lieu of the CNIT. Methodology The CNIT model is a simplified operate a motor vehicle. Most fees are generated by four-year licenses. Special Hauling Permit Fees: Operators that move certain loads or vehicles (e.g., oversized or overweight) over Pennsylvania roads. REAL ID: Pennsylvania residents that opt to upgrade their current

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

elect to be taxed as partnerships for federal tax purposes are also exempt from tax. Banks, savings and loan agencies and insurance companies remit other corporate levies in lieu of the CNIT. Methodology The CNIT model is a simplified full tax motor vehicle. Most fees are generated by four-year licenses. Special Hauling Permit Fees: Operators that move certain loads or vehicles (e.g., oversized or overweight) over Pennsylvania roads. REAL ID: Pennsylvania residents that opt to upgrade their current operator’s

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

elect to be taxed as partnerships for federal tax purposes are also exempt from tax. Banks, savings and loan agencies and insurance companies remit other corporate levies in lieu of the CNIT. Methodology The CNIT model is a simplified full tax motor vehicle. Most fees are generated by four-year licenses. Special Hauling Permit Fees: Operators that move certain loads or vehicles (e.g., oversized or overweight) over Pennsylvania roads. REAL ID: Pennsylvania residents that opt to upgrade their current operator’s

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

0.5 Business Provisions Business Tax Cuts 4.6 Delay Employer Payroll Taxes 10.8 Total $78.7 PPP Forgivable Loans 20.5 Note: Billions of dollars. Federal UC Payments include FPUC, PUA and 13 week extension. FPUC – Federal Pandemic UC in a temporary bubble?  Extra $600/week ends in mid- to late-July | windfall for some workers  PPP loans/grants buys limited time for businesses  One-time purchases to enable telecommuting  Lack of seasonal sales still to

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MTR-2018-1.pdf

Price Index 11 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% n.a. 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 n.a. $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 n.a. Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2018-04.pdf

Price Index 11 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% n.a. 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $5,020 $5,060 $5,140 n.a. $5,810 $5,870 $5,940 n.a. Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2018-03.pdf

Price Index 11 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% Student Loan Debt 12 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,150 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 $5,880 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2018-02.pdf

Price Index 11 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% Student Loan Debt 12 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,150 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 $5,880 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

Price Index 11 6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2017-11.pdf

Price Index 11 6.4% 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,060 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 $5,870 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2017-10.pdf

Price Index 11 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2017-09.pdf

Price Index 11 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2017-08.pdf

securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2016, Pennsylvania has 10.9 million consumers (includes Price Index 11 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,020 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 $5,810 Industrial Electricity

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes Price Index 11 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% n.a. 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 n.a. $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 n.a. Industrial Electricity

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

Price Index 11 5.9% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,690 $4,830 $4,920 $5,030 $5,430 $5,590 $5,690 $5,840 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

Price Index 11 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 3.9% 3.3% 4.1% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,710 $4,690 $4,830 $4,920 $5,450 $5,430 $5,590 $5,690 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

Price Index 11 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% n.a. 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,710 $4,690 $4,830 n.a. $5,450 $5,430 $5,590 n.a. Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

Price Index 11 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 $4,830 $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 $5,590 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

Price Index 11 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 n.a. $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 n.a. Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

Price Index 11 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% n.a. 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 n.a. $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 n.a. Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-08.pdf

Price Index 11 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

Price Index 11 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 3.6% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-05.pdf

Price Index 11 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 3.6% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2015, Pennsylvania has 10.8 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-04.pdf

Price Index 11 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% n.a. 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 n.a. $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 n.a. Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

Price Index 11 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-02.pdf

Price Index 11 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 $4,600 $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 $5,310 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2016-01.pdf

Price Index 11 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% n.a. 2.7% 2.3% 2.7% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 n.a. $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 n.a. Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2015-11.pdf

Price Index 11 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% n.a. 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 $4,480 $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 $5,170 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2015-10.pdf

Price Index 11 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% n.a. 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 n.a. $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 n.a. Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

Price Index 11 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% 2.4% 2.6% 3.7% 2.9% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,390 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 $5,070 $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

Price Index 11 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,390 $4,480 $4,590 $4,480 $5.070 $5,180 $5,330 $5,180 Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes

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MTR-2015-07.pdf

Price Index 11 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% n.a. 2.0% 2.1% 2.7% n.a. Student Loan Debt 12 $4,390 $4,480 $4,590 n.a. $5,070 $5,180 $5,330 n.a. Industrial Electricity securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. 12. Per capita levels. Levels represent total student loan debt divided by number of consumers with a credit report. For Q4 2014, Pennsylvania has 10.7 million consumers (includes

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MRU_2021_03.pdf

by lower annual payments to the extent small business owners made quarterly payments related to forgiven Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans, which are now non-taxable. The due date for PIT annual payments has been delayed until May 17. March CNIT strength, tax year 2020 final payments are expected to be suppressed due to the revised tax treatment of forgiven PPP loans. FYTD CNIT collections are $2.82 billion, or $62.0 million (2.3 percent) over estimate. Sales and use tax

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MRU-2020-12.pdf

4 million). A material portion of the gain is likely related to the taxable status of forgiven Paycheck Protection Program loans, and recent federal legislation makes those loans non-taxable. FYTD CNIT collections continue to outperform the forecast ($595.4 million, 38.6 percent), as estimated and final

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

funds above the baseline to be used to pay debt service on bonds issued to establish a revolving loan fund. Loans from the fund must be used to acquire property in the zone or equipment that will be used in the zone. This

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

8% -- Mortgage Debt -0.7% 0.7% 3.5% 3.7% -- 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.6% -- Student Loan 2.7% 7.0% 4.5% 5.9% -- 4.1% 5.8% 3.9% 7.2% -- Auto Loan 9.7% 6.9% 4.8% 4.0% -- 7.6% 5.4% 3.1% 1.5% -- US - Growth Rate or

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

labor market.  Consumers still “unwinding.” Rebuilding home equity. Paying down debt. Much uncertainty.  Concern now shifts to student loan debt. PA second highest in nation at $29,960 per student.  Where will the unexpected growth come from?  through FY 2017-18: Sales and Use Tax  3.2% average annual growth rate.  An aging population, student loan debt and growing internet sales will constrain the growth of the tax base. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 48

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

unusual  March +3% | June -31% | September -5% | December +35% Short-term factors  Likely some payments made on PPP loans  Payroll tax shift to 2021 and 2022  Possible shifting in anticipation of tax rate increase (e.g., TCJA 21 Notes Special funds transfer $431 Rainy day fund $100 Revenue shifts $1,938 delayed due dates Payment on PPP loans $100 affects personal income tax JUA transfer $200 court challenge CARES Act $1,330 used for DHS, PSP, DCJ, DOH

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

3.8%. Inflation is modest (~+1.4%). Other economic fundamentals are sound.  Consumers still cautious about debt, except student loans.  Housing values up 4.4%. Corporate profits appear to rebound. Federal tax reform may have material impact.  Large 8.9 $10.7 Category 4 (Mini) Casinos 40.0 12.1 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 Loan Repayment 12.0 24.1 -- -- -- -- All Other 9.2 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 Total

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

Term Savings, but Long-Term Costs.  Medicaid expansion: full phase-in of state share (10%) by 2020.  JUA Loan ($200 million) and PlanCon (no appropriation this year). Economy Hits Soft Patch in Third Quarter.  A $200 million hit 400 $800 $1,200 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Revenue Increases Expenditure Increases / Loan Repayments / Funding Shifts $1,059 $656 $412 $211 $121 $41 Note: figures in dollar millions. Long-Term Outlook Summary Main

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

0.1 46.5 Note: Figures in dollar billions. Active COVID Relief Programs (PA Data) March 4, 2022 15 Student Loan Repayments Student Loan Debt (federal) ~$70 billion Number Borrowers 1.83 million Average Payment $350 /month Monthly Amount $640 million Share That Defer

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

estimate reflects the IFO’s official estimate released on June 22, 2020. 7 The estimate assumes that forgivable loans under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) will be treated as non- taxable. If forgivable loans are effectively taxed, that treatment would have significant revenue implications for corpo- rate net and personal income taxes. Revenue Outlook | Page 8

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

do business in Pennsylvania and has a valid state tax ID number.  Indication that all personal service corporations or loan-out companies that will be engaged by the applicant are incorporated, or formed in Pennsylvania, or are registered to do

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

that the applicant has a valid state tax ID number.  Evidence that all personal service corporations or loan-out companies that will be engaged by the applicant are incorporated, or formed in Pennsylvania, or have registered to do business in

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf

increases in capital gains and net business profits for tax year 2021 (PIT), (4) the continued moratorium on federal student loan repayments (SUT), (5) higher prices that were pushed forward to consumers (CNIT) and (6) shifts in consumer purchases to higher

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05-Presentation.pdf

to be overextended  Modest growth in 2018 total consumer debt (+0.9%)  Mortgage debt declines slightly, but student loan debt continues to grow May 20, 2019 12 PIT Forecast Underpredicts FY 18-19 May 20, 2019 13 June 2018

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

 Relatively minor statutory deductions that first convert Total Income to Adjusted Gross Income (e.g., educator expenses and student loan interest) fell by $0.7 billion.  Total claimed itemized deductions fell $27.2 billion (-59.5 percent).  Itemized

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

and ignores timing issues related to approval of the grant and actual spending. 5 This disregards the payback of any loan over a much longer time horizon. Spending Jobs Grant Category Multiplier Class Multiplier Multiplier Economic Development Community Food, Housing, and

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

assets of the retirement system. The board may, if it desires, contract with a regulated insurance company, bank, savings and loan association, trust company, invest- ment adviser, or the Pennsylvania Municipal Retirement System to be a deposit administrator and to perform

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

to 1984. • Unusual exits from labor force. What is the cause? Generation Y or Millennials: Born 1985 to 2004. • Student loan debt and household formation. 3.Dec.2014 Demographic Waves Drive Trends 5 3.Dec.2014 0 200 400 600 800

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

12 Timing shifts – finals to quarterlies Cigarette -10 Unusual recent weakness Gaming Expansion 85 Pick up from first two auctions Loan-Lease-Transfers -67 Lease-transfers revised from $300 to $233 All Other 91 Inheritance +$40, VW Settlement +$40 26 Note

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

Gas Lease funds.  Transfers of available monies from special funds.  Acceleration of revenue or deferrals of expenditures.  Loans or short-term revenue boosts. Post-Recession Budgets 10.Feb.2017 3 November 2016 IFO Report 10.Feb.2017 4

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Note: Dollar amounts in millions. May.01.2018 20 Gaming Expansion Revenues Original 2017-18 Revised 2017-18 Dollar Change Loan Repayments $12.0 $12.0 $0.0 Category 3 Expansion 6.7 1.0 -5.7 Fantasy Contests 0.8

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

19-20 20-21 21-22 iGaming $0 $97 $8 $9 $9 Category 4 Casinos 127 5 12 8 9 Loan Repayment 17 20 0 0 0 Sports Wagering 0 55 28 29 30 All Other 2 6 3 3 4

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

from prior year Other relief programs expire at end of year | impact unclear  Expiration of rent, mortgage and student loan forbearance  Expiration of extra/special federal UC support: PUA and extended benefits November 18, 2020 9 Presentation is Posted

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

for all consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. May 24, 2017 16 Change in Real Per Capita Debt: 2003 to 2015

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf

reviews September 28, 2021 5 Keystone Special Development Zones (KSDZ) Recommendations ▪ Implement program/project caps | limits potential tax impact ▪ Front loading credits enhances value and could increase participation • Current: $2,100 over 10 years ($21,000) • Alternates: $3,000 over 7

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

s Center for Transportation Analysis. 1 IFO calculation. Includes activity expenditures for personnel and operations, but not including grants and loan repayments, divided by the number of aviation facilities in the the state system. State System Runway Pavement Condition $17.0

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

two years of case closure.  Recommended: Average active caseload. This measure will report the average active case- load of a juvenile probation officer (excluding administrative cases). The Commission is also ex- ploring ways to measure and report workloads related to

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

average cost per parolee for supervision. • Average active caseload (county). This measure represents the statewide average active case- load for county probation/parole officers. It is reported on a calendar year basis. • Grant-in-aid per active case (county). This measure

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

for all consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Change in Real Per Capita Debt: 2003 to 2015 25 Various methods to

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

from prior year Other relief programs expire at end of year | impact unclear  Expiration of rent, mortgage and student loan forbearance  Expiration of extra/special federal UC support: PUA and extended benefits December 9, 2020 9 Presentation is Posted

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

and compares to a no-pandemic scenario. Payroll jobs figure for 2021.3 reflects July only. Federal stimulus includes PPP loans, expanded SNAP, advance child tax credit payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates or changes are year-

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

Fund Transfers 500 -- -- -- -- Gaming Expansion iGaming 42 $27 $29 $9 $9 Mini-Casinos (Category 4) 40 12 8 8 8 Loan Repayment 12 24 0 0 0 All Other (VGT, Fantasy Sport) 9 6 6 6 6 Corporate Net Operating Loss

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

Price Index 11 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% Student Loan Debt 12 $4,480 $4,600 $4,710 $4,690 $5,170 $5,310 $5,450 $5,430 Industrial Electricity

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MRU_2021_02.pdf

expected to be partially offset in April to the extent small business owners made quarterly payments related to forgiven PPP loans, which are now non-taxable. Cigarette tax collections exceeded estimate by $15.7 million (21.2 percent) for the month

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MRU_2021_01.pdf

15.0 million posting this month that offsets a negative posting that occurred in November 2020 related to repayment of loan principal under the PA First program. Monthly Revenue Update January 2021 FY 2020-21 Revenue Performance Through January January Collections

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Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2022.pdf

factors. First, the BLS notes that gasoline price data are collected throughout the month, but is likely to be front loaded towards the beginning of a month. Hence, the February data likely reflect minimal impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict (February

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf

injected into the state economy by the federal Consolidated Appropriations Act and American Rescue Plan. A second round of PPP loans injected another $10.0 billion, expanded unemployment compensation $16.1 billion and advance child tax credits $3.4 billion. While

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2020.pdf

a reduced payment. Current negotiations in Congress include the extension of the existing moratorium on evictions as well as student loans, and substantial emergency assistance for renters. Economic impact payments of $600 to $1,200 per eligible adult (plus amounts for

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Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf

or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.8 billion has been received. Based on the latest data for

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

or businesses received $32.4 billion in federal unemployment compensation (UC), economic impact payments or forgivable Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. For 2021 Q2, the IFO estimates an additional $10.3 billion will be received. (For additional detail, see the IFO

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

measures, interest rates, income, and other economic factors  Details of projections and underlying parameters for Social Security, Medicare, student loans, agriculture programs, and many other programs Releasing Data 10 CBO Sometimes CBO analyzes the accuracy of its own estimates and

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

home values increased by 4.4% last year, while total mortgage debt of Pennsylvania consumers was flat (includes home equity loans). Overall, these data suggest sound economic fundamentals and potential for further expansion into next fiscal year. There are three concerns

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

to all consumers with a credit report, including family members. Home mortgage includes primary mortgages, secondary mortgages and home equity loans. Excludes reverse mortgages. For 2016, there were 1,336 reverse mortgages completed in PA. Since 2013, there have been 8

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

income tax rate on pass-throughs (9 increase) Intense competition for increasingly mobile businesses  Tax rates, exemptions, tax credits, loans, subsidies, grants, abatements November 14, 2019 3 Guest Presentations Guest presentations posted separately November 14, 2019 4 Four Critical Assumptions

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

of Europe likely in recession ▪ Housing market’s rapid decline: does it spread? ▪ Residual stimulus: can consumers sustain spending? ▪ Student loans (moratorium and forgiveness)? Known: long-term challenges ▪ Housing affordability approaches record lows ▪ Low LFPRs + contracting working age demographic = worker shortage

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

Unusually High Significant policy risks ▪ Stimulus impact lingers, but how much longer? ▪ Some remains | child tax credit and SNAP ▪ Student loan moratorium ends Jan 31, 2022 (began Mar 2020) ▪ Federal Reserve taper and interest rate adjustments ▪ New, expanded or extended federal

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

current year, but the net impact declines to $41 million by FY 2021-22 as one-time revenues expire and loan repayments and funding shifts take effect.  The growth rate for pension contributions moderates after FY 2017-18. While expenditures

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

21 Notes Special funds transfer $431 Rainy day fund $100 Revenue shifts $1,938 delayed due dates Payment on PPP loans $100 affects personal income tax JUA transfer $200 court challenge CARES Act $1,330 used for DHS, PSP, DCJ, DOH

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

2 Today’s Presentation: Three Parts State demographics and economy  Labor market still robust | consumers drive growth  Auto loan delinquencies at all time high | mortgage refis double State budget  What are the revenue trends?  What is the

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

all policy initiatives. Proposed Deficit Reduction February 28, 2017 4 2-Year Impact Revenue Package $1,006 Revenue Enhancements 304 Loans or Leasebacks 335 Gaming Expansion 250 Reduce Tax Credits 100 Consolidation/Closures/Complement 351 2016-17 DHS Savings 165 Pupil

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

the proposed benefit tiers reflect the proposed change in the Entry Age Normal cost method, which incorporates a 0.4% load for administrative expenses and timing adjustments. These factors have been applied to the Act 120 normal cost rate for Class

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

York (FRBNY) pub- lishes quarterly tabulations on average consumer debt levels. The debt includes auto, credit card, mortgage and student loan debt and corresponds to all individuals who have a credit card. Although high debt levels may in- hibit consumer spending

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