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BUDGET AND ECONOMIC UPDATE PRESENTATION

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

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BUDGET AND ECONOMIC UPDATE PRESENTATION

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

03/31/2022

Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

03/31/2021

MER-2014-10.pdf

trading for the entire United States. Shown below are spot prices for the most in Ðluential trading hub in the Marcellus Shale re‐ gion, Dominion South, which began falling in relation to the Henry Hub this past summer. From January 2013 British thermal units (MMBtu), but in early October stood at $1.52 to the Henry Hub’s $3.95. Most Marcellus hubs have followed Dominion’s sharp decline within a few cents per MMBtu. Natural gas prices are in Ðluenced by

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

FY 19-20 due to the anticipated non-receipt of certain augmentation revenues. 4 Excludes transfers to the Marcellus Legacy Fund. 5 Environmental Stewardship Fund and Recycling Fund. 6 Includes various transfers from sales and use, cigarette, personal income and realty of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR), with priority given to state park and state forest programs and the Marcellus Legacy Fund, which supports other conservation-related programs. For FY 2018-19, revenues ($78 million) were less than expenditures ($83 million), which

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Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf

the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR), with priority given to state park and state forest programs and the Marcellus Legacy Fund, which supports other conservation-related programs. For FY 2022-23, revenues ($180 million) increased by $57 million (47% 3) $112 million for infrastructure pro- jects in state parks and forests and (4) a $15 million transfer to the Marcellus Legacy Fund. Overall, these appropriations represent an increase of $77 million (61%) over the prior year. The forecast projects that

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR), with priority given to state park and state forest programs and the Marcellus Legacy Fund, which supports other conservation-related programs. For FY 2021-22, revenues ($123 million) were more than expenditures ($63 operations, (3) $56 million for infrastructure projects in state parks and forests and (4) a $15 million transfer to the Marcellus Legacy Fund. Overall, these appropriations represent an increase of $64 million (101%) over the prior year. The forecast projects that

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

Department of Con- servation and Natural Resources (DCNR), with priority given to state park and state forest programs and the Marcellus Legacy Fund, which supports other conservation-related programs. For FY 2020-21, revenues ($66 million) were more than expenditures ($64 down $11 million in the same period and were insufficient to fund the full statutory $35 million transfer to the Marcellus Legacy Fund. For FY 2021-22, appropriations from the OGLF include $33 million to state park and state forest programs

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

will not be able to support DCNR expenditures at historical levels and maintain the $35 million annual transfer to the Marcellus Legacy Fund.  The strong growth in FY 2024-25 is due to the scheduled repayment of the $165 million the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR), with priority given to state park and state forest programs and the Marcellus Legacy Fund, which supports other conservation-related programs. For FY 2019-20, revenues ($77 million) were less than expenditures ($85

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TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf

0 million tons (IFO estimate), and natural gas comprised 51% of power generation in the state, as proximity to the Marcellus Shale provided an abundant fuel source at a relatively low cost. Other fuel sources used to generate electricity include nuclear Nuclear All Other Industry Background | Page 13 During the past decade, the robust growth of natural gas production from the Marcellus Shale restrained wholesale electricity prices on the PJM Interconnection. 8 Low electricity prices directly affect coal refuse power plants because

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RB-2016-02.pdf

or re Ðine natural gas, oil or other fuels, or to convert natural gas to ethane, propane or other substances. Marcellus Legacy Fund expenditures from impact fee revenues support these projects. Life Sciences Greenhouses $966 $3,000 Advances biotech and medical three‐year period to help pay for the incremental purchase and conversion costs of natural gas vehicles. Expenditures from the Marcellus Legacy Fund support the program. Department of Labor and Industry Job Training $5,000 $5,000 Awards grants to entities

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jackson ppt.pdf

mid-2007). • PA will also return to pre-recession peak employment earlier than US average • PA – 2013Q2 vs. US – 2014Q3 • Marcellus Shale natural gas production has been a big jobs booster. • Natural resources/mining and manufacturing the most obvious sectors. • Many Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. • Marcellus Shale development will continue to generate both direct and indirect job growth, although rate of growth will slow. • Persistent low

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

Pennsylva- nia Department of Labor and Industry) has identified six core industries for natural gas and oil production in the Marcellus Shale. Employment in these core indus- tries has grown from approximately 6,600 to 25,000 individuals from 2001 to compari- son, total Pennsylvania employment was virtually un- changed. Over the next 10 years, production of natural gas from the Marcellus Shale will likely continue to grow as the U.S. shifts from being a net importer of natural gas to

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WJ-Presentation-Natural-Gas-7-14-20.pdf

10.5M) each year.  The remaining amount is divided between the counties/municipalities with eligible wells (60%) and the Marcellus Legacy Fund (40%).  Disbursement to counties/municipalities can be used for various purposes. Impact Fee Collections History July 14 5 10.5 Counties and Municipalities 123.3 101.8 93.1 114.8 140.1 109.2 77.1 Marcellus Legacy Fund 82.2 67.9 62.0 76.5 93.4 72.8 51.4 Note: 2020 projected by

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

that can be found in Pennsylvania’s “wet” natural gas. These natural gas liquids are abundant in the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations, which cover nearly two-thirds of Pennsylvania. In 2016, Shell Chemical Corporation began construction on a large ethane basis. The plant will eventually employ 600 permanent positions. IHS Markit estimates that natural gas production from the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations could support up to four additional petrochemical manufac- turing facilities in the region. 67 Currently, the majority of

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

Mining Conservation and Reclamation, Underground Storage Tank Indemnification, Coal Lands Improvement, Energy Development, Environmental Education, Growing Greener Bond, Marcellus Legacy, Mine Safety, Nutrient Management, Remining Financial Assistance, Motor License, Land and Water Development, and Capital Facilities. 1 Includes fixed asset expenses 1.19 Growing Greener Bond Fund 0.10 3.80 2.57 0.36 0.10 0.00 Marcellus Legacy Fund 3.61 6.38 3.31 0.03 -0.01 0.00 Other Funds 0.35 0.34 0.38

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

187,712 $173,259 $209,557 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 123,300 101,800 93,070 114,784 Marcellus Legacy Fund 82,200 67,867 62,046 76,523 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 levels through 2019. There are several large pipeline projects in development throughout Pennsylvania that will connect gas production from the Marcellus to major demand markets in other states. This would provide support to regional prices, motivating continued recovery and stabilization. In

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

223,500 $187,712 $173,259 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 123,151 123,300 101,800 93,070 Marcellus Legacy Fund 84,601 82,200 67,867 62,046 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 2019. There are several large pipeline projects in development throughout Pennsylvania that are anticipated to connect gas production from the Marcellus to major demand markets in other states. This would provide support to regional prices, which have diverged dramatically from the

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TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdf

EIA data and production forecasts to suggest that the establishment of an ethane storage and distribution hub near production from Marcellus and Utica shales located in the Appalachian region could provide benefits to the petro- chemical industry by diversifying the supply

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

over a 30-year lifetime, (3) it has a production profile (decline curve) similar to a recently-drilled Marcellus shale well and (4) natural gas extracted from the well is valued at a blended spot price for Pennsylvania regional hubs. Tax

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RB-2019-01.pdf

209,557 $246,970 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 123,300 101,800 93,070 114,784 137,232 Marcellus Legacy Fund 82,200 67,867 62,046 76,523 91,488 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500

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NGPR-2019Q4.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of February 21, 2020. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2019Q3.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of November 27, 2019. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2019Q2.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of August 20, 2019. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2019Q1.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of May 28, 2019. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2018Q4.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of February 28, 2018. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2018Q3.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of November 28, 2018. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2018Q2.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of August 30, 2018. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2018Q1.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of May 30, 2018. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2017Q4.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of February 28, 2018. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2017Q3.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of December 6, 2017. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2017Q2.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of August 21, 2017. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2017Q1.pdf

tabulations of production volume and well counts. These data pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica. The data included in this report are current as of May 19, 2017. Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology

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NGPR-2016Q4.pdf

data are current as of February 22, 2017 and pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report

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NGPR-2016Q3.pdf

data are current as of November 21, 2016 and pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report

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NGPR-2016Q2.pdf

data are current as of August 23, 2016 and pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report

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NGPR-2016Q1.pdf

data are current as of May 20, 2016 and pertain only to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. The final page provides definitions of the technical terms used throughout this report. Natural Gas Production Report

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NGPR-2015-2H.pdf

full calendar year. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. Natural Gas Production Report July to December Calendar Year 2015 Table 2: Historical Horizontal Well Production Total

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NGPR-2015-1H.pdf

months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. A separate document published on the IFO’s website, “Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology,” contains definitions of

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NGPR-2015-09.pdf

months of 2015. The data summarized in this report pertain exclusively to gas produced from unconventional formations, which include the Marcellus and Utica formations. A separate document published on the IFO’s website, “Glossary of Natural Gas Terminology,” contains definitions of

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

173,259 $219,371 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 123,151 123,300 101,800 93,070 120,677 Marcellus Legacy Fund 84,601 82,200 67,867 62,046 80,451 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

187,712 $174,600 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 107,683 123,151 123,300 101,800 94,000 Marcellus Legacy Fund 79,289 84,601 82,200 67,867 62,600 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

225,752 $223,500 $185,500 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 107,683 123,151 123,300 100,500 Marcellus Legacy Fund 79,289 84,601 82,200 67,000 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

surrounding states and its potential impact on the economy and communities. The article notes that production from the Utica and Marcellus Shale basins will “provide a significant financial advantage” for the region compared to other high-gas producing regions such as

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET UPDATE Marcellus Shale Coalition Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 31, 2022 1 Overview A sizable budget surplus this year ▪ Revenues significantly outperform estimates

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

Budget and Economic Update Marcellus Shale Coalition March 31, 2021 The Big Picture A sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits 

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf

4 $146.3 $234.4 $278.9 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 109.2 76.7 129.0 155.5 Marcellus Legacy Fund 72.8 51.1 86.0 103.6 Commonwealth Agencies 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf

8 $200.4 $146.3 $234.4 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 140.1 109.2 76.7 129.0 Marcellus Legacy Fund 93.4 72.8 51.1 86.0 Commonwealth Agencies 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

557 $251,831 $200,365 $146,255 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 114,784 140,060 109,180 76,714 Marcellus Legacy Fund 76,523 93,373 72,787 51,143 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

259 $209,557 $251,831 $200,365 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 93,070 114,784 140,060 109,119 Marcellus Legacy Fund 62,046 76,523 93,373 72,746 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

712 $173,259 $209,557 $251,831 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 101,800 93,070 114,784 140,149 Marcellus Legacy Fund 67,867 62,046 76,523 93,432 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

259 $209,557 $251,831 $198,200 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 93,070 114,784 140,149 108,000 Marcellus Legacy Fund 62,049 76,523 93,432 72,000 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

173,259 $219,371 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 123,151 123,300 101,800 93,070 120,677 Marcellus Legacy Fund 84,601 82,200 67,867 62,046 80,451 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

225,752 $223,500 $185,500 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 1 107,683 123,151 123,300 100,500 Marcellus Legacy Fund 79,289 84,601 82,200 67,000 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500

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2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

3 $234.4 $278.9 $174.0 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 76.7 129.0 155.5 92.6 Marcellus Legacy Fund 51.1 86.0 103.6 61.7 Commonwealth Agencies 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5

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2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf

4 $146.3 $234.4 $274.8 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 109.2 76.7 129.0 153.3 Marcellus Legacy Fund 72.8 51.1 86.0 102.2 Commonwealth Agencies 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5

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2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

8 $200.4 $146.3 $233.8 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund $140.1 $109.2 $76.7 $129.3 Marcellus Legacy Fund $93.4 $72.8 $51.1 $86.2 Commonwealth Agencies $10.5 $10.5 $10.5 $10.5

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2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

557 $251,831 $200,365 $144,850 Counties, Municipalities and HARE Fund 114,784 140,060 109,180 75,872 Marcellus Legacy Fund 76,523 93,373 72,787 50,581 Commonwealth Agencies 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

extraction-related employment in industries identified by the Department of Labor and Industry (Center for Workforce Information and Analysis) as Marcellus shale core industries. Excludes pipeline-related employment. 5 .Calculation does not account for fee adjustments due to the CPI or

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index.cfm

and Other March 31, 2022 Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst II Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. ... (Full Report) Assumptions Used by

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