PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate SouthThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion. Tags: brief, migration, research |
PA Residents Migrating to Southern StatesThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older. Tags: brief, migration, research |
Senate Budget Hearing RequestThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to requests for additional information raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The requests relate to an adjusted financial statement, public assistance savings resulting from a higher minimum wage, impact of the Ohio rate structure on Pennsylvania tax liability, net migration for Pennsylvania, regional student loan debt comparison and U3 and U6 unemployment rates. 03/06/2024 |
PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate SouthThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion. 05/03/2023 |
Senate Budget Hearing RequestThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to questions raised at the office’s budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to net migration for Pennsylvania, U3 and U6 unemployment rates, tax burden and labor force participation rates for Pennsylvania and border states, Pennsylvania’s declining workforce and the Pennsylvania Child and Dependent Care Enhancement Tax Credit. 04/05/2023 |
PA Population Contracts Since 2020The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states. 01/04/2023 |
PA Residents Migrating to Southern StatesThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older. 06/02/2022 |
School Property Tax, Senior Spending and Tax RevenuesIn response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups. 04/23/2021 |
Senate Budget Hearing RequestThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) responded to several questions raised at the office's budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. The questions relate to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment based on gender, net domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states, and education sector employment for Pennsylvania and border states. 04/09/2021 |
Senior Spending and Tax RevenuesIn response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes (1) state spending dedicated to seniors, (2) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors and (3) potential changes in senior migration patterns due to proposed tax law changes. 09/27/2019 |
migration Data by Age Group and Educational AttainmentIn response to a legislative request, the IFO has posted a letter that provides data on educational attainment levels by age group for individuals migrating to and from Pennsylvania. 07/02/2019 |
Senate Majority Policy Committee Public Workshop migration Data RequestIn response to a legislative request, the IFO provided data to the Senate Majority Policy Committee for use in their Public Workshop on “Student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania” on April 30, 2019. The brief document details historical population data for the Commonwealth, focusing primarily on young adults migrating to and from Pennsylvania. 04/29/2019 |
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdfPopulation Distribution .............................................................................................. 5 Dependency Ratios ....................................................................................................................... 6 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 7 Birth Trends ................................................................................................................................. 8 Decedent Trends .......................................................................................................................... 9 Domestic Migration Trends .......................................................................................................... 10 Comparison of Components of Change in Border States ................................................................. 11 Regional and National Population Trends ............................................................................... 13 Pennsylvania County Population Growth Over the table footnotes. Methodology The IFO demographics forecast uses a cohort-component model in which birth, death and migration rates are projected separately for males and females. Projections are made by single-year ages using data from the Pennsylvania DOH and Hits: 44 |
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf3 Pennsylvania Population Distribution................................................................................................. 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 9 Birth Trends .................................................................................................................................. 10 Decedent Trends ........................................................................................................................... 11 Recent Migration Trends ................................................................................................................ 13 Focus: Labor Force Trends Among Older Adults ..................................................................... 15 Regional and National Population Trends............................................................................... 19 Pennsylvania County Population Growth noted in the table footnotes. Methodology The IFO demographics forecast uses a cohort-component model in which birth, death and migration rates are projected separately for males and females. Projections are made by single-year ages using data from the U Hits: 41 |
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf3 Pennsylvania Population Distribution................................................................................................. 5 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 6 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 7 Birth Trends .................................................................................................................................... 8 Decedent Trends ............................................................................................................................. 9 Domestic Migration Trends ............................................................................................................ 11 Regional and National Population Trends............................................................................... 13 Pennsylvania County Population Growth ......................................................................................... 13 Regional Share of Residents Age 65 and noted in the table footnotes. Methodology The IFO demographics forecast uses a cohort-component model in which birth, death and migration rates are projected separately for males and females. Projections are made by single-year ages using data from the U Hits: 40 |
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdfPennsylvania Population Distribution .............................................................................................. 5 Dependency Ratios ....................................................................................................................... 5 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 7 Birth Trends ................................................................................................................................. 8 Decedent Trends .......................................................................................................................... 9 Recent Domestic Migration Trends ............................................................................................... 10 Labor Force Trends and Projections ....................................................................................... 13 Regional and National Population Trends ............................................................................... 17 Pennsylvania County Population Growth ....................................................................................... 17 County noted in the table footnotes. Methodology The IFO demographics forecast uses a cohort-component model in which birth, death and migration rates are projected separately for males and females. Projections are made by single-year ages using data from the U Hits: 35 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf2020 to 2025, deaths are projected to outnumber births by 12,000. From 2010 to 2015, net migration was 10,000 and is projected to increase to 42,000 (2015 to 2020) and 77,000 (2020 to 2025). The overall positive net migration is due to net inflows from international migration. The most recent data also reveal a reduction in outflows from net domestic migration Hits: 34 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdfreasons that motivate their choice to reenter or refrain from rejoining the labor force. Senator Santarsiero requested information on domestic migration for Pennsylvania and border states by age groups. Please refer to the tables on pages 4 and 5. Senator Kearney impact of immigration on the state economy. Page 9 of the IFO’s budget hearings packet contains total net domestic migration trends by state from the U.S. Census Bureau from 2011 through 2019. As of March 10, 2021, the U Hits: 22 |
House Budget Hearing Request.pdfof 2015, incremental budgeting is the primary budget approach utilized by 30 states. 1 Representative Quinn inquired about the out-migration of young people in Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, migration data for all individuals in a particular age group are not readily available. However, the United States Internal Revenue Service Hits: 21 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdfData .......................................................................................... 18 Revenue Estimate Methodology ..................................................................................................... 19 Simulation Results ........................................................................................................................ 20 Average Effective Tax Rates on Income Sources ............................................................................ 22 Impact on State Migration .............................................................................................................. 22 Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 24 Raising the Minimum Wage .................................................................................................... 25 Proposal Highlights ....................................................................................................................... 25 Raising the Minimum Wage ........................................................................................................... 26 Minimum Wage Across States For all net profits income, the net tax increase is $461 million based on TY 2018 data. Impact on State Migration During the recent budget hearings, several members inquired about the impact of the higher PIT rate on migration. The text Hits: 18 |
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdfIn April, the Internal Revenue Service released the latest state-level migration data. The dataset uses income tax returns to track the migration of filers (and dependents) between states for returns filed and processed during calendar years 2020 and 2021. 1 The dataset Hits: 18 |
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdfsame years, actual and budgeted revenues attributable to seniors by major category of taxation. The impact on the net migration of seniors if school district property taxes were eliminated and (1) retirement income was taxed at a rate of 4 92 percent or (2) retirement income remains untaxed. The potential impact on expected costs to the state if senior migration increased based on the scenario in the previous bullet. The remainder of this letter contains three sections that address these Hits: 15 |
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdfIn May, the Internal Revenue Service released the latest state-level migration data. The dataset uses income tax returns to track the migration of filers (and dependents) between states for returns filed and processed during calendar years 2019 and 2020. 1 The dataset Hits: 15 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfLabor Market ..................................................................... 4 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs End ............................................................... 6 Demographic Outlook ................................................................................................ 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Population Gains .......................................................... 8 Demographics – Net Domestic Migration Trends ......................................................... 9 Demographics – Migration by Age Group and Region ................................................ 10 Revenues – Fiscal Year-to-Date ............................................................................... 11 Revenues – General Fund Projections ...................................................................... 12 Energy Trends ........................................................................................................ 13 Hits: 15 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdfraised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Santarsiero requested demographic data that shows net migration by county. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties and certain metro areas. For April 1, 2020) to July 1 of the latest data year. The 2022 data are the most recent available. Net migration for a county is the difference between in-migration (number of people moving in) and out-migration (number of people Hits: 14 |
Sen_Maj_Pol_Comm_Brain_Drain_Workshop_04_30_2019.pdfBuilding 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 1 Year Population Estimate Population Change 1 Births Deaths Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration Net Migration 2000 12,284,173 20,368 145,351 129,761 15,590 n.a. n.a. 4,778 Hits: 13 |
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdftaxes collected in 2020 will be released by the IFO in February 2023. Representative Mercuri requested recent data on Pennsylvania migration. Each year, the U.S. Census Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties and other areas. For each post-2020 Census estimates may not be entirely comparable. Therefore, pre-2020 Census estimates are not included below. The net migration for a given geographic area is the difference between in-migration (the number of people moving in) and out-migration Hits: 13 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdfs analysis of the Governor’s revenue proposals that will be released later this month. Senator Santarsiero requested data on migration by age group, by socioeconomic scale and source. The IRS Statistics of Income Division (SOI), in collaboration with the U.S. Census Bureau, releases migration data for the United States. These data are an important source of information because they detail the movement of tax Hits: 12 |
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf1,000 Age 20-39 +260 +8% Age 40-59 -435 -12% Age >59 +750 +28% +238 organic +49 dom. migration +232 int’l migration +520 net increase 2020 2010 12.June.2014 8 Migration Provides a Bump 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Hits: 10 |
Newsstand_January_2020.pdfThe population growth was primarily due to the number of births outpacing the number of deaths by 1,751. Net migration was estimated to be -56 in 2019, compared to the 10,944 gain in the prior year. The significant reversal is driven by a decline in international in-migration, falling 38.3% (-12,143) from 2018. By comparison, domestic out- migration changed from -20,731 to -19,588. IRS Hits: 9 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdfmajor Pennsylvania hubs was $2.27 through June, an increase of 56.8% over the same period in 2020. IRS Migration Data Continue to Show Net Outflow from PA The IRS recently released migration data by state in 2019 compared to 2018. The tax data show that Pennsylvania had a net outflow of 13 Hits: 9 |
Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdftimes as many participants used a hardship withdrawal in 2023 than 2018. Chairman Grove requested historical data on Pennsylvania international migration. Each year, the United States Census Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties, state/county equivalents, and Puerto of data with some methodological differences, the 2010 and 2020 Decennial Census estimates may not be entirely comparable. The net migration for a given geographic area is the difference between in-migration (number of people moving in) and outmigration (number of Hits: 9 |
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdfor organic decline (-56,150) as the number of deaths (351,130) exceeded the number of births (294,980). International migration added 37,560 residents over the two years while net domestic migration reduced state residents by 16,220 (i.e., migration outflows to other states exceeded inflows). The final two columns list Hits: 8 |
MTR-2015-09.pdfNeɑ IRS SɎaɎe MigɌaɎiɉɈ DaɎa ReɆeaɍed The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recently released new data that capture interstate migration patterns for calendar years 2012 and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For federal tax returns were matched between the two years. The database of matched returns allows the IRS to identify a migrating taxpayer’s origin and destination states. The data reveal a net outflow from Pennsylvania of 21,578 individuals (includes dependents Hits: 8 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdfBureau Three Demographic Trends Unexpected contraction of PA population in 2016. Birth rates continue to fall. Strong domestic migration out of state (but data very preliminary). Retirement surge has important implications. “Churning” reduces growth of total wages paid 142 141 141 708 Deaths -126 -131 -127 -131 -133 -646 Natural Growth 17 11 16 11 8 62 Domestic Migrate -17 -31 -35 -45 -46 -175 Int’l Migrate 29 30 34 35 35 162 Net Migration 12 -1 -2 Hits: 8 |
index.cfmpublic assistance savings resulting from a higher minimum wage, impact of the Ohio rate structure on Pennsylvania tax liability, net migration for Pennsylvania, regional student loan debt comparison and U3 and U6 unemployment rates. ... (Full Report) February 2024 Revenue Update Revenue FY 2023-24. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. ... (Full Report) PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate South Economics and Other May 03, 2023 The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to Hits: 8 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfnear-term projections should be close to actual population estimates, long-term projections are less certain because birth, death and migration rates can vary significantly due to changing economic conditions, immigration policies, domestic migration incentives and health care. Table 2.1 reveals the following trends: ▪ The total population grew 0.8% from 2015 to Hits: 7 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdfterm projections should be similar to actual population estimates, long-term pro- jections are less certain because birth, death and migration rates can vary significantly due to changing economic conditions, immigration policies, domestic migration incentives and health care. Table 2.1 reveals the following trends: ▪ The total population grew 288,000 from 2010 to Hits: 7 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdfterm projections should be similar to actual population esti- mates, long-term projections are less certain because birth, death and migration rates can vary signifi- cantly due to factors such as changing economic conditions, immigration policies, domestic migration in- centives and healthcare. 1 The Pennsylvania Demographic Outlook used data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Centers Hits: 7 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfterm projections will be similar to actual population estimates. However, long-term projections are less certain because birth, death and migration rates can vary more significantly in the long term than in the short term due to factors such as changing economic conditions, immigration policies, domestic migration incentives and health care. 1 Page 2 of the Pennsylvania Demographic Outlook notes that since the COVID-19 impact on Hits: 7 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdfparticipation rates also climb for 65+. Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? New Data Suggest Int’l Migration Much Higher. Domestic migration changes from positive to negative (net outflow). International migration into PA revised much higher. 11/15/2016 8 PA Hits: 7 |
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdfthat the number of residents age 65 or older increased significantly during this time, and many of those households will migrate into lower income groups as they enter retirement. In 2012, residents age 65 or older comprised 16.0 percent of share of upper income household increased from 21.4 to 27.8 percent as households in their prime working years migrated to higher income groups. Spouses may have also joined the workforce and increased household income. Average income for upper Hits: 6 |
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdfeffectively pay one-fifth of that amount ($290 to $440 million) for FY 2020-21. Table 4 provides Pennsylvania net migration data across seven age groups from 2013 to 2019. The data reflect both international and domestic net migration. For all years, net international migration was positive (inflows exceed outflows) while net domestic migration was negative. The data from Hits: 6 |
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdfnet domestic outflow to other states (-8,496 for 2020 to 2021, 2022 data not yet available), (2) lower international migration and (3) deaths that exceeded births (-38,543 for 2020 to 2021). For 2020 and 2021, the IFO estimates that term, the tightness in the state labor market can only be alleviated through three channels: • A reduction in domestic out-migration. Data show net domestic out-migration to other states across all age cohorts, including retirees and elderly. The factors that Hits: 6 |
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf12,284 12,711 Average Annual Levels (000s) Number Births 154 145 140 Number Deaths -126 -128 -129 Net Domestic Migration 0 -4 -25 Net Int’l Migration 9 18 29 Residual 0 12 0 Ending Population (000s) 12,284 12,711 12,852 Avg. Annual Growth Rate Hits: 6 |
MTR-2017-04.pdf3% FYTD $25,823 $25,270 $554 Growth -0.3% -0.2% -3.6% Dollar amounts are in millions. MILLENNIAL MIGRATION IN PENNSYLVANIA The U.S. Census Bureau releases the American Community Survey (ACS) every year, which includes annual migration data between various states. These data can be narrowed down to show the migration of individuals aged 20-35 (millennials Hits: 6 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdfGains and Losses by Sector .................................................................... 7 State Metric Comparison ........................................................................................................... 8 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ................................................................................. 9 Pennsylvania Demographic Trends .................................................................................... 10 State Domestic Migration Comparison .............................................................................. 11 2018-19 Revenue Update........................................................................................................ 12 2019-20 Revenue Projections ............................................................................................... 13 State Comparison: State-Local Tax Burdens ................................................................... 14 Natural 18-22 Number of Births 565 561 566 -5 5 Number of Deaths -509 -535 -549 -26 -14 Net Domestic Migration -88 -133 -80 -45 53 Net International Migration 94 144 145 50 1 Unallocated Amounts 17 0 0 -17 0 Hits: 6 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf6 Pennsylvania Employment Gains and Losses 7 Pennsylvania Income Sources 8 State Metric Comparison 9 Pennsylvania Demographic Trends 10 State Migration Comparison 11 Revenues and Federal Income Tax Reform Revenues Through January 12 Revenue Uncertainty for FY 2017‐18 13 Major 143 142 142 142 142 140 139 990 Number of Deaths 128 125 131 127 133 131 131 906 Domestic Migration -8 -18 -30 -36 -44 -50 -26 -213 International Migration 26 28 30 34 36 38 37 230 Unallocated Amounts Hits: 6 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdfProjected Federal Relief for Pennsylvania ................................................. 6 COVID-19 Impact on Economic Growth Rates ........................................................... 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot ........................................................................ 8 Net Domestic Migration Trends ................................................................................ 9 PA Labor Force Participation Rates ......................................................................... 10 Fiscal Year to Date Revenues ................................................................................. 11 General Fund Revenue Projections ......................................................................... 12 General 12,788,468, roughly 3,000 more residents than the 2019 release. Independent Fiscal Office 9 March 2021 Net Domestic Migration Trends Top Outflow 2011-13 2014-16 2017-19 1 New York -100.5 -168.4 -183.3 -0.9% Hits: 6 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdfSector ....................................................................................... 6 State Metric Comparison ............................................................................................................................ 7 Pennsylvania Demographic Snapshot .................................................................................................... 8 Most PA Job Gains to Age 55+ ................................................................................................................. 9 Net Domestic Migration Trends ............................................................................................................ 10 PA Demographic Trends Cause Tight Labor Market ...................................................................... 11 General Fund Financial Statement Comparison .............................................................................. 12 FY 2019-20 Revenue Jobs Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau. Note: Excludes self-employed, independent contractors and military. 10 Net Domestic Migration Trends Top Outflow 2011-13 2014-16 2017-19 1 New York -100.5 -168.4 -183.3 -0.9% Hits: 6 |
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdfpeak in approximately a decade. Other factors contribute to state aging. Life expectancies to accelerate after pause. Small migration into state for age 75+. Three Demographic Waves 7/14/2017 7 Baby Boomers: Born 1946 to 1964. Retirements 484 9,227 1,339 -7,677 Natural Increase 16,606 11,070 15,624 10,746 7,844 Domestic Migration -17,463 -31,138 -35,353 -45,064 -45,565 International Migration 29,193 29,791 33,818 34,910 Hits: 5 |
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf24 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Today’s Presentation I. The Foundation: Demographics. Baby Boomer retirements. Life expectancy and migration flows. II. Economic Trends for Seniors. Seniors working more: ~25% in 2016. More income dedicated to housing expenses in approximately a decade. Other factors contribute to state aging. Life expectancies to accelerate after pause. Small migration into state for age 75+. May 24, 2017 3 Change Over Next Decade Residents (000s) Decade Change Age Group 2015 Hits: 5 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdfPandemic Relief Programs ...................................................................... 6 Demographics – Pennsylvania Snapshot ..................................................................... 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Decedent Trends and Excess Death Estimate ................. 8 Demographics – Net Domestic Migration Trends ......................................................... 9 Revenues – Fiscal Year to Date ................................................................................ 10 Revenues – General Fund Projections ...................................................................... 11 Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends ......................................................................... 12 compared to the pre-COVID-19 average for 2018 and 2019. Independent Fiscal Office 9 February 2022 Demographics – Net Domestic Migration Trends Demographics – Net Domestic Migration State 2020 2021 Total State 2020 2021 Total 1 Florida 43.1 220.9 264 Hits: 5 |
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdfpopulation 2016: +0.0% | 2017: +0.0% | 2018 +0.1% Birth rates continue to decline Some change in migration patterns International in-migration declines | So does domestic out-migration Majority of in-migrants from border states Continued dramatic change in age composition Hits: 5 |
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdfno change up to 30 65‐89 +1,092 +53.9% Baby Boomers Age 50‐64 ‐512 ‐18.8% 10 Migration Is Crucial to Growth 2015‐20 2020‐30 2030‐40 2015‐40 Start of Decade/Period 12,803 13,027 13,426 12,803 Births less Deaths 109 128 ‐49 189 Net Domestic Migration 6 9 9 24 Net Int’l Migration 109 262 320 692 End of Decade 13,027 13,426 13 Hits: 4 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf348 323,128 13,779 0.7% 8,138 0 5,641 Note: Natural growth is births less deaths. Domestic migration is migration from other states. International migration is net inflow from other countries. Sum of natural growth and migration slightly different than Hits: 4 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf348 323,128 13,779 0.7% 8,138 0 5,641 Note: Natural growth is births less deaths. Domestic migration is migration from other states. International migration is net inflow from other countries. Sum of natural growth and migration slightly different than Hits: 4 |
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdfto 21 percent for tax year 2018. For the high income group, the strong growth of Total Income also reflects migration from a lower income group. For the low income group, growth may have been restrained if a 2017 filer did Schedule E) and the low income group reported negative growth in both years. As noted, that could be attributable to migration to higher income groups. The data confirm that the three income groups report different compositions of Total Income. For Hits: 3 |
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf30 2030-40 Start of Decade 12,711 13,203 13,701 Births less Deaths 230 174 -32 Net Domestic Migration 29 29 31 Net Int’l Migration 232 296 331 End of Decade 13,203 13,701 14,032 Decade Growth Rate 3.9% 3.8% 2 Hits: 3 |
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsxRico Commonwealth and Municipios: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012. Computations were done by the Independent Fiscal Office. International Migration International Net Migration for Select States, 2000-2013 International Net Migration (thousands) State 2000* 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Hits: 3 |
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf0.8% -0.4% Note: Rates are average rates from 2010 to 2017. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. PA Domestic Migration Statistics 2016 November 19, 2018 5 Age Group Net Migration State Net Migration 0 to 19 23,796 New York 17,539 20 to 24 -16,632 New Jersey 16 Hits: 3 |
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf Tax burden falls on smaller cohort. Long-Term: 10+ Years. Deaths exceed births. Heavily dependent on international migration. Demographics: Short- and Long-Term Issues Past, Present and Future Trends Source: Pennsylvania State Data Center with adjustments by the 30 Start of Period 12,712 12,792 12,957 13,209 Births less Deaths 69 69 45 13 Net Migration 18 97 207 247 No Category -8 n.a. n.a. n.a. End of Period 12,792 12,957 Hits: 3 |
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdfeconomic multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels and migration patterns) are assumed constant. 19 By comparison, total reported gross revenues by KIZ firms was $234 million in 2016 and $369 million the experience and training received and social connections established for recent graduates may be sufficient to dis- courage migration to other states. 26 For example, see “Tech Clusters,” Kerr, William R. and Frederic Robert-Nicoud (November 2019), “Local Job Multi- pliers Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdfstagnant population growth is driven by lower fertility and marriage rates, and more recently, lower inflows of international migrants. Real GDP Population Per Capita Real GDP 1997-07 2010-20 1997-07 2010-20 1997-07 2010-20 United States 3 begin to abate in the middle of the next decade. Barring a recession, these demographic trends and recent migration patterns suggest that the state labor market will remain tight in the near term. That outcome should support further wage growth and Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdfstagnant population growth is driven by lower fertility and marriage rates, and more recently, lower inflows of international migrants. Real GDP Population Per Capita Real GDP 1997-07 2010-20 1997-07 2010-20 1997-07 2010-20 United States 3 begin to abate in the middle of the next decade. Barring a recession, these demographic trends and recent migration patterns suggest that the state labor market will remain tight in the near term. That outcome should support further wage growth and Hits: 2 |
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf999 to -2,000 -1,999 to 0 1 to 1,999 2,000 to 9,999 ≥10,000 Net Migration to Pennsylvania The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 11 15.Nov.2012 Net Migration Data, 2006-2010 The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 12 15.Nov.2012 Within From Include Age Cohort U.S Hits: 2 |
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf16.7 1 Births less Deaths 8.4 9.9 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.3 2 International Migration 31.8 38.0 31.0 31.7 19.5 -- 3 Domestic Migration -43.7 -50.4 -27.4 -20.7 -19.6 -- Residents Age 20-64 -23.9 -32.5 -32.2 Hits: 2 |
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf6 5.4 13.3 1.1 -- Organic Growth 8.4 9.9 1.7 2.3 1.1 -- International Migrate 31.8 38.0 31.0 31.7 19.5 -- Domestic Migrate -43.7 -50.4 -27.4 -20.7 -19.6 -- Age 20-64 -23.9 -32.5 -32.2 -26 Hits: 2 |
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdfchains and economic multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels and migration patterns) are assumed constant. 17 The amount awarded is not adjusted for sales of the credit because DCED does not Hits: 1 |
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdfchains and economic multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels and migration patterns) are assumed constant. 17 For this criterion, other benefits supplied by or inherent to the KSDZ cannot be included Hits: 1 |
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdfeconomic multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels and migration patterns) are assumed constant. Section 4: Economic Analysis | Page 25 Line 7 Additional spending incentivized by the tax credit creates multiplier effects Hits: 1 |
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdfand economic multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels, migration patterns) are assumed constant. 15 Labor represents about 21 percent of total broadband expenditures. “The Economic Impact of Rural Broadband,” Hudson Institute Hits: 1 |
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfto the tax credit. Dynamic effects allow certain technical parameters to change (e.g., the price of inputs, migration patterns) in response to 18 The analysis assumes that $65 million is spent on tax credits. Alternatively, if the state used those Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdfshown). Due to a tight labor market for lower-wage workers, the analysis projects that there will be a significant migration of those workers from under $10.00 per hour to wage rates that are considerably higher. 13 These tipped occupations Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf2023, CHIP enrollment was roughly 51,000 below pre-pandemic levels. The analysis assumes 33,000 (65%) of those children migrated to MA during the federal PHE and will return to CHIP once the continuous coverage requirement for MA expires. Based Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdfdomestic outflow to other states (-8,496 for 2020 to 2021, 2022 data not yet available), (2) much lower international migration and (3) deaths that exceeded births (-38,543 for 2020 to 2021). For 2020 and 2021, the IFO estimated that Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdfdomestic outflow to other states (-8,496 for 2020 to 2021, 2022 data not yet available), (2) much lower international migration and (3) deaths that exceeded births (-38,543 for 2020 to 2021). For 2020 and 2021, the IFO estimated that Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdfcalculations. 1 Expanded UC Benefits distributed based on claimant income. One-third of the benefits received in this category were migrated to higher income groups to adjust for cases where UC claimant income comprises only a portion of total household income Hits: 1 |
RB-2017-5.pdfnortheastern states (e.g., Pennsylvania and Vermont) compared to energy-producing and western states (e.g., Texas and Utah). Domestic migration patterns cause much of this trend as residents depart northeastern states and move to western and southern states for reasons Hits: 1 |
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdfMoving forward, other modules will need additional funding to implement (e.g., responsible party assessments, appeals processing). Month/Year Items Migrated Into PATH January 2019 * Motor and alternative fuel taxes * International fuel tax agreement (IFTA) tax October 2019 * Realty transfer tax Hits: 1 |
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdfsupport through state funding for school security and safety, the 21st Century Community Learning Centers (21 st CCLC) and the Migrant Education Program (PA-MEP). In SY 2019-20, 54,291 students were enrolled in the 21 st CCLC Program and Hits: 1 |
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdfChesapeake Bay, Oil-Gas Management, Radiation Protection, Energy Programs, Lab Services. DEP Metric Highlights By 19-20, 65% of inspectors migrated to e-inspection solutions Oil and Gas permitting productivity up 20% since 16-17 Clean Water and Safe Hits: 1 |
NGIFE-2015.pdfthe impact fee (new wells less new stripper wells); and (2) reduced fees from existing wells as they age and migrate down the fee schedule. For example, the per‐well impact fee decreases by $10,100 for operating year two, $5 Hits: 1 |
NFIB_Presentation.pdfrevenues. Dec.13.2017 4 Today: A (Very) Quick Overview Highlights from Economic & Budget Outlook. ◦ Demographics: rapid aging, domestic out-migration. ◦ Economics: latest data show 2016 weaker than expected. ◦ Short- and long-term budget outlook. ◦ New revenue package: borrowing, transfers and Hits: 1 |
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdfsame direction. Income growth does not translate into spending growth. Recent demographic trends do not reverse. • Net out migration continues. • Lack of population growth. Data suggest material income shifting from 2016 to 2017. Factors That Restrain Revenues 7 Hits: 1 |
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdffee (new wells plus non-producing wells brought into production less new stripper wells) and (2) existing wells aging and migrating down the fee schedule. Independent Fiscal Office June 2019 5 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Hits: 1 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdffee (new wells plus non-producing wells brought into production less new stripper wells) and (2) existing wells aging and migrating down the fee schedule. Independent Fiscal Office June 2018 5 Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market Hits: 1 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdffee (new wells plus non‐producing wells brought into production less new stripper wells) and (2) existing wells aging and migrating down the fee schedule. Independent Fiscal Of Ðice July 2017 5 Rachel Carson State Of Ðice Building, 2 nd Floor Hits: 1 |
IFO_Testimony_Min_Wage_Feb_16_2021.pdftargeted to specific sectors (e.g., retail trade, food service). ▪.Assumes that all workers with hourly wage under $8.00 migrate to next highest wage group. ▪.OES for CY 2020 will be released late March. CreationDate: 2021-02-12 11:53 Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf2,534 -- 2,534 916 3,450 1.0 Population Change from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023 Net Migration Note: Population in thousands. Share of population is the total change divided by the population as of April 1, 2020 Hits: 1 |
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdfcertain parameters of the PaSDC population model were not updated. Those parameters include fertility rates, survival rates and components of migration. Those parameters will be updated when official projections are released. The Appendix details the impact from updating the base population Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf Medium-term: impact on labor force and early retirements Long-term: impact on birth rates, household formation and migration patterns January 21, 2021 21 Presentation is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us January Hits: 1 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdfthe impact fee (new wells less new stripper wells); and (2) reduced fees from existing wells as they age and migrate down the fee schedule. For example, the per‐well impact fee decreases by $10,100 for operating year two, $5 Hits: 1 |
2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdfmost likely in U.S. debt. Can now flow out as dividends, buybacks, wages and investment. Some gains from migration to corporate business form. Significant corporate tax rate reduction. Large PA rate differential: 9.99 vs. 3.07 Hits: 1 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfbe open only to new employees, or to both new employees and select existing participants. Some governments have reservations about migrating from the traditional DB structure to a core DC format. Plan sponsors cite a variety of risks that can cause Hits: 1 |
Releasespublic assistance savings resulting from a higher minimum wage, impact of the Ohio rate structure on Pennsylvania tax liability, net migration for Pennsylvania, regional student loan debt comparison and U3 and U6 unemployment rates. Full Report Older Newer Release Type • Revenue Hits: 1 |