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County Income Patterns 2018-2021

This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

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County Income patterns 2018-2021

This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

08/24/2023

County Income patterns

This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

08/16/2022

County Income patterns

This research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

08/10/2021

School Property Tax, Senior Spending and Tax Revenues

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups.

04/23/2021

County Income patterns

This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

06/10/2020

Senior Spending and Tax Revenues

In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes (1) state spending dedicated to seniors, (2) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors and (3) potential changes in senior migration patterns due to proposed tax law changes.  

09/27/2019

County Income patterns

This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

08/30/2019

ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

Amendment’s sponsors along with the PSERS Board prior to adoption for reasonableness. (See page 20 for discussion.) Different retirement patterns may emerge to the extent that the determination of the “cost-neutral” early retirement reduction factors are unreasonable and/or baseline projections. As shown on the second SERS graph (page 49), the estimated employer contribution amounts, which has the same pattern as the employer contribution rate. Mr. Matthew Knittel June 2, 2017 Page 25 This analysis was prepared solely for the

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf

each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to overpayments or “safe harbor” payment rules. Due to payment rules and the potential for overpayment of tax liability, cash flow patterns might temporarily diverge from the underlying pattern of actual tax liability. Revenues that use the basic tax liability method include

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to overpayments or “safe harbor” payment rules. Due to payment rules and the potential for overpayment of tax liability, cash flow patterns might temporarily diverge from the underlying pattern of actual tax liability. Revenues that use the basic tax liability method include

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual safe harbor” payment rules. Due to payment rules and the potential for overpayment of tax liability, cash flow patterns might temporarily diverge from the underlying pattern of actual tax liability. Revenues that use the basic tax liability method include gross receipts

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

each method, projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to overpayments or “safe harbor” payment rules. Due to payment rules and the potential for overpayment of tax liability, cash flow patterns might temporarily diverge from the underlying pattern of actual tax liability. Revenues that use the basic tax liability method include

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

projections might be made on an annual or quarterly basis. The choice of periodicity depends on the time patterns of data and whether quarterly data allow regression models to exploit pertinent information that might be masked by aggregation to an annual safe harbor” payment rules. Due to payment rules and the potential for overpayment of tax liability, cash flow patterns might temporarily diverge from the underlying pattern of actual tax liability. Revenues that use the basic tax liability method include gross receipts

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

and State Programs ............................................................................................11 Payroll Employment .......................................................................................................12 Labor Force Trends ........................................................................................................14 Income Trends ..............................................................................................................17 Unspent Federal Stimulus ...............................................................................................18 Consumer Spending Patterns ..........................................................................................20 Inflation and Sales Taxes ................................................................................................21 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................22 Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................................. 23 Personal Income Tax......................................................................................................24 Sales and Use Tax at an average rate of 3.3% per annum. During that time, the state economy partially reverts to pre-COVID patterns as consumers shift spending towards ser- vices, labor force participation rates increase, and asset markets resume long-term trends. For

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

temporary labor and materials shortage will resolve. The forecast also includes these specific assumptions: ▪ Consumers largely revert to prior spending patterns. However, it is recognized that the pandemic accelerated long-term shifts in some consumer behaviors such as more online shopping not match growth rates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Wage growth for 2021 based on adjusted withholding patterns through June 2021. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor Force are annual changes for the quarter. Labor market data are

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

year (+1.3%) while real purchases declined (-6.5%). These trends suggest that consumers may be reverting to prior spending patterns. To the extent this trend continues, it will restrain the growth rate of SUT revenues. Figure 1.3 YOY Growth prior fiscal year. E-commerce sales have begun to slow during the fiscal year, as consumers revert to normal spending patterns (more spending on non-taxable services, less spending on taxable goods). Motor vehicle SUT is expected to decline 0.4%

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

1.6%) while real purchases declined significantly (-10.7%). These trends suggest that consumers may be reverting to prior spending patterns. To the extent this trend con- tinues, it will restrain the growth rate of SUT revenues. Figure 1.3 YOY prior fiscal year. E-commerce sales have begun to slow during the fiscal year, as consumers revert to normal spending patterns (more spending on non-taxable services, less spending on taxable goods). Motor vehicle SUT is expected to decline 1.1%

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

temporary labor and materials shortage will resolve. The forecast also includes these specific assumptions: ▪ Consumers largely revert to prior spending patterns. However, it is recognized that the pandemic accelerated long-term shifts in some consumer behaviors such as more online shopping not match growth rates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Wage growth for 2021 based on adjusted withholding patterns through May 2021. Change in Payroll Jobs and Labor Force are annualized changes during quarter. Labor market data are not

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

that all secondary jobs are part- time, and they are distributed among wage groups and genders in a pattern that is similar to all primary part-time jobs. For both categories, the analysis finds that 1.11 million non-tipped workers and 500 or more employees by industry using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s County Business Patterns 2016. For example, if those data show that one half of all employees (regardless of wage rate) in the leisure-hospi- tality

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

and a quicker recovery. 4 The forecast reflects the following assumptions:  Consumers largely revert to prior spending patterns during the remainder of the calendar year. However, it is recognized that the pandemic has likely caused long-term shifts in some This residual sector includes information, mining, personal care and other miscellaneous services. Table 1.6 displays the quarterly patterns for wage growth and net payroll jobs for CY 2020 and 2021 Q1. The growth rates or change are relative to the

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

and a quicker recovery. 4 The forecast reflects the following assumptions:  Consumers largely revert to prior spending patterns during the remainder of the calendar year. However, it is recognized that the pandemic has likely caused long-term shifts in some This residual sector includes information, mining, personal care and other miscellaneous services. Table 1.6 displays the quarterly patterns for wage growth and net payroll jobs for CY 2020 and 2021 Q1. The growth rates or change are relative to the

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

useful benchmark against which one may assess whether collections have reverted to a “normal” level, nor does it reveal the pattern of that reversion. Relative context is useful because it helps readers determine if the growth rate of a particular series merely pulls tax deductions forward in time, future corporate income tax liability will be higher, all else equal. This unusual pattern is not captured by the economic forecast and must be incorporated as a technical adjustment. Alternatively, the capital stock and

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

reduction will impact the March and June estimated payments in FY 2021-22. This is consistent with historic CNIT payment patterns. Unlike combined reporting, firms can more readily calculate the impact of a rate reduc- tion on their tax liability and adjust tax year payments. The DOR estimate assumes a different pattern of payments based on their analysis of 2018 tax returns after passage of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

must be met prior to the end of the tax year. 14 The DOR estimate assumes a different pattern of payments based on their analysis of 2018 tax returns after passage of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). DOR significantly higher payments until they are required to do so. Table 1.6 provides additional detail on the pattern of Pennsylvania estimated payments remitted by firms for TY 2017 (before the passage of the TCJA) and TY 2018 (after the passage

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

with the FY 2022-23 state budget. During that time, the state economy continues to partially revert to pre-COVID patterns as labor force participation rates increase and asset markets resume long-term growth rates. For FY 2022-23, enacted General average net inflow of 7,700 per annum. Net migration projections are lower because the forecast is based on migration patterns from 2016 to 2019, which were notably lower than 2010 to 2015. 2010-20 2020-25 2025-30 Start of

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

extra withholding day, but includes one-time transfers from special funds. Corporate Net Income: Policy, Shifts and Behavior Estimated payment pattern in 2020 highly unusual  March +3% | June -31% | September -5% | December +35% Short-term factors  Likely some payments out)  Wealth effects: housing and stock markets raise consumer confidence Long-term: only a partial reversion to old spending patterns  A permanent acceleration to online purchases  Redirected spending: gasoline purchases, dry cleaning, concert events January 21, 2021 16

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels and migration patterns) are assumed constant. 19 By comparison, total reported gross revenues by KIZ firms was $234 million in 2016 and $369 million in noted previously plus pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing (NAIC 3254). 23 For this purpose, the analysis used “institutional spending patterns” for state government spending for education and non-education purposes. Section 4: Economic Analysis | Page 18 Line 10 The net impact on

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

other rates or change relative to same quarter in prior year. Wages- Salaries for CY 2021 based on adjusted withholding patterns. Other data for 2021.2 based on data for April only. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S 2020, $1.3 billion in 2021). FPUC includes enhanced payments to both traditional UC and PUA claimants. Federal Payments – Quarterly Pattern May 26, 2021 6 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 Expanded UC

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

senior renters might effectively pay one-fifth of that amount ($280 to $440 million) for FY 2019-20. Senior Migration Patterns and Potential Impact from Proposed Tax Changes Table 3 provides Pennsylvania net migration data across seven age groups from 2011 who enter the state, nearly one-half migrate from a border state. Tax data from the IRS confirm the general patterns from the U.S. Census Bureau. For 2014 to 2015, IRS data show a net outflow of Pennsylvania seniors of

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

is likely that consumers will spend a larger portion of their stimulus funds. Based on existing research and consumer spending patterns from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the assumed average MPCs for the 4 See Christopher Carroll, et al., “The Distribution of will be removed and many businesses have made significant adjustments to their operations that require less labor. 14 Consumer spending patterns have also changed dramatically, and are unlikely to revert fully to prior patterns. Many college and high school students will

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

yet crucial impact.  Hard to see in a single year.  Determines work force, income sources and consumer spending patterns.  PA is now in middle of a retirement wave.  First Boomers turned 65 in 2012.  Will peak  PA seniors working more.  Dramatic increase in last decade.  Trend accelerates since Great Recession.  Senior spending patterns shift. More debt.  Home costs are a larger share of spending.  Mortgage debt increases significantly. May 24, 2017

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

Pennsylvania Turnpike encompasses 552 miles of road and 67 fare collection points. 6 Although each toll interchange has unique traffic patterns, it is likely that similar factors motivate traffic volume across the entire system. This report subdivides the Turnpike into three rates by the same percentage on all sections of the Turnpike for passenger and commercial vehicles. 18  Historical traffic patterns are representative of future patterns. The analysis projects transactions across four groups. An implicit assumption is that the average revenue

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Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdf

released a working paper that measured the effects of COVID-19 Economic Impact Payments on consumer spending. Debit card spending patterns were tracked for a sample of consumers (approximately 16,000 recipients) after receipt of the $1,200 (or more) payment MPC of 23% in the two weeks following the receipt of the payment. After the two-week period, consumer spending patterns appeared to return to normal. The study estimated that the $296 billion of payments from the CARES Act will increase

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

by public companies in the economies of terrorist- sponsoring states 3 , the Center for Security Policy has reached a key finding: America’s 100 largest and most prominent pension systems have the power to help defeat terrorism. From the pension system such information when requested. For example, the Detroit Police and Firemen Retirement System refused to recognize the submission of a public records request and never provided data. Similarly, a representative of the Tennessee Consolidated Retirement System questioned why the portfolio holdings

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

great extent as a constant, the amortization period is the variable most frequently modified to reflect the unique cost incidence pattern associated with postretirement adjustments. The benefit payments attributable to an ad hoc postretirement adjustment decline much more rapidly than those changes in the quality of goods and services over time, and the failure to adequately respond to changing consumer consumption patterns. It has been criticized specifically with respect to its utilization in determining cost-of-living postretirement adjustments because its range

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

and economic multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels and migration patterns) are assumed constant. 17 The amount awarded is not adjusted for sales of the credit because DCED does not track on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey. The computation is based on consumer spending patterns, and the actual percentage could be different than 30 percent. Appendix | Page 28 Sources “2015 Income Tax Credit Review,” Arizona

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf

and economic multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels and migration patterns) are assumed constant. 17 For this criterion, other benefits supplied by or inherent to the KSDZ cannot be included (e on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey. The computation is based on consumer spending patterns, and the actual percentage could be different than 30 percent. Appendix | Page 30 Sources “Analysis of Pennsylvania’s Brownfields Program

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels and migration patterns) are assumed constant. Section 4: Economic Analysis | Page 25 Line 7 Additional spending incentivized by the tax credit creates multiplier effects known per tax credit dollar. Those outcomes are also plausible. 33 For this purpose, the analysis used “institutional spending patterns” for state government spending for education and non-education purposes. 34 Labor earnings includes all payments to employees such as wages and

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

Pennsylvania reusable bag demand was developed separately from the Freedonia data and is based on estimated household shopping patterns and reuse rates. Unlike other retail bags, it is assumed that not all demand is driven by retail shopping needs. Reusable stitched bonded together, rather than woven together. The material is made to look woven by having a cross thatched pattern pressed onto the material. Petrochemical Manufacturing: The production of plastic resins from fossil fuel liquids. Plastic Resin: The base material of all

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

overprediction error for FY 2016-17 was attributable to unusually weak revenue growth that temporarily diverged from historical patterns with economic growth. Most other states experienced similar General Fund shortfalls for that fiscal year. In addition to the relative size of actual amount. Projections should represent an unbiased forecast that have an equal chance of under or overprediction. The pattern of forecast errors from the past six budget cycles does not suggest an inherent bias in General Fund revenue estimates. Other All

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

 Consumers not overextended | strong housing and labor market Some key forecast assumptions  Consumers largely revert to old spending patterns  No second outbreak that causes business closures | no vaccine  Schools reopen in fall May 26, 2020 13 FY well despite massive job loss  Injection of federal monies to state economy  Evidence that consumers are shifting spending patterns  No dining out | more home improvement, internet shopping, fast food May revenues provide some optimism  Non-motor vehicle

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

to abate in the middle of the next decade. Barring a recession, these demographic trends and recent migration patterns suggest that the state labor market will remain tight in the near term. That outcome should support further wage growth and General 2019 non-withheld PIT collections av- eraged 42 percent higher than April 2018 and indicates that this collection pattern was not unique to Pennsylvania. 3  Licenses and fees revenue is projected to exceed the IFO’s official estimate by $88

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RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf

disposable household income, similar to an increase in federal income taxes or state sales tax. Because borrowers have unique spending patterns 1 This statistic is based on national data as state-level data are not available. Sources include: “Student Loan Pause reduces disposable income for households in each group and simulates the impact on the state economy based on consumer spending patterns, supply chain relationships, applicable taxes and leakages from the state economy. The fully-phased in annual economic impact results are

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

County). Population declines in the northern, central and southwestern regions offset gains in south central and southeastern regions. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2017 to 2020, 59 includes all wages and salaries, interest, dividends, business income, rents, royalties, transfer receipts (e.g., SNAP) and retirement income. Income patterns were dramatically impacted by COVID-19 pandemic relief programs. For 2020, the BEA estimates that around $53 billion was distributed

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RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf

PASSHE issued 20-year taxable revenue bonds at a true interest cost rate of 2.6%. Table 3 shows the pattern of the nearly $450 million in net savings to PASSHE. The PASSHE savings schedule follows a different pattern than Penn State because PASSHE issued bonds that mature in 20 years, while Penn State issued 30-year bonds. For

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RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf

in the southeastern and south central regions were offset by contractions in the northern, central and northwestern regions. County Income Patterns 2018-2021 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Source: Population data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis g., Social Security and SNAP) and retirement savings. 1 As noted, BEA excludes capital gains income from personal income. Income patterns were dramatically impacted by temporary COVID-19 pandemic relief programs. For 2021, the BEA estimates that $52 billion was disbursed

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

net profits reported on the state tax return. 2  For 2020 Q3 to 2021 Q1, projected statewide job loss patterns were applied to each county based on the industry composition of its wage base for CY 2019. Overall, the analysis Department of Revenue. Projections for CY 2020 are based on actual monthly gaming results through May 2020, the historical collection patterns associated with each casino, planned casino reopening dates and reduced capacity related to current COVID-19 mitigation efforts. For the

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

Example: K‐12 Education 12.May.2016 Revenue Impacts Revenues Less Responsive to Economic Growth Sales and Use Tax: Spending Patterns Personal Income Tax: Income Sources 24 12.May.2016  Sales and Use Tax. • Elderly buy fewer durable goods that all, due to demographic trends. • Also specific price pressures. Economic Fundamentals Suggest Challenges. • Growth of labor force, long‐term spending patterns. Major Take Aways 32 12.May.2016 Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building, 2 nd Floor 400 Market

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

may not translate to all local units. Aging’s impact on the state economy.  Economic growth. Job Creation. Spending patterns.  Service sector jobs. Slower growth. Housing pressures. Transition to local unit trends.  Earned income tax and property tax attributable to longer average workweek. Source: U.S. Social Security Administration: Annual Statistical Supplement. August.08.2018 17 65+ Spending Patterns Shift to Housing Share of Spending Age 65+ 2005-06 2015-16 Change Housing 37.3% 41.8% 4.4%

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

 Excess supply in commercial real estate rental market  Less business travel, accommodation and dry cleaning services New spend patterns, more on-line sales and productivity gains = job loss  Grocery spending up ~+10% June to Sept | but employment down 5% 2018-19 How many of the ~475k PA job losses in September will be recouped?  Do consumer spending patterns revert?  Do individuals rejoin the labor force, or get by with less? November 18, 2020 6 Revenues Are Up

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

drug identification, beverage alcohol analysis, clandestine laboratory analysis, tox- icology, latent print/shoe and tire impression examination, photography, serology, bloodstain pattern anal- ysis, and trace evidence. An additional BFS laboratory, the Forensic DNA Division, provides DNA testing services in casework analysis Program (EIP) aids supervisors in the identification of law enforcement officers who may have difficulty managing stress or exhibit a pattern of conduct, which may be of concern to the department. The goal of the EIP is to divert staff from

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

payments to both traditional UC and PUA claimants. An unknown amount of monies flow out of state. Federal Payments – Quarterly Pattern June 17, 2021 3 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 Expanded UC month change year-over- year change ~50k avg gain -1.1 million stagnation despite ~$47 billion federal transfers normal seasonal pattern -438k change # payroll jobs (000s) Note: Uses non-seasonally adjusted data. Year-over-year change for March to May 2021

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

 Excess supply in commercial real estate rental market  Less business travel, accommodation and dry cleaning services New spend patterns, more on-line sales and productivity gains = job loss  Grocery spending up ~+10% June to Nov | but employment down 5% 2018-19 How many of the ~453k PA job losses in October will be recouped?  Do consumer spending patterns revert?  Do individuals rejoin the labor force, or get by with less? December 9, 2020 6 Revenues Are Up

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

 Consumers not overextended | strong housing and labor market Some key forecast assumptions  Consumers largely revert to old spending patterns  No second outbreak that causes business closures | no vaccine  Schools reopen in fall June 22, 2020 12 FY well despite massive job loss  Injection of federal monies to state economy  Evidence that consumers are shifting spending patterns  No dining out | more home improvement, internet shopping, fast food May revenues provide some optimism  Non-motor vehicle

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

to abate in the middle of the next decade. Barring a recession, these demographic trends and recent migration patterns suggest that the state labor market will remain tight in the near term. That outcome should support further wage growth and General 2019 non-withheld PIT collections averaged 42 percent higher than March-April 2018 and indicates that this collection pattern was not unique to Pennsylvania. 3  Licenses and fees revenue is projected to exceed the IFO’s official estimate by $93

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

actively working or seeking work. Source: PA Department of Labor and Industry, Center for Workforce Information and Analysis. Senior Spending Patterns Shift To Housing Jan.25.2018 Independent Fiscal Office 12 Share of Spending for Age 65+ 2005-06 2015-16 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey. Looking Forward  Senior characteristics evolve during past decade.  Income sources. Spending patterns. Debt. Longevity.  By 2030, profiles could look very different.  Higher mortgage debt for age 65+. Could suggest pressures

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Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf

a net inflow of 77,000. Net migra- tion is lower moving forward because the forecast is based on migration patterns from 2018 to 2022, which were no- tably lower than 2015 to 2020. For 2025 to 2030, net migration is average rate of 3.4% per annum for FY 2025-26 to FY 2028-29. (See Table 4.5.) This pattern is due to (1) a projected corporate profits contraction and (2) policy changes enacted in 2022. For 2023, the preliminary

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

services to goods. This impact is expected to partially reverse as the pandemic subsides and consumers return to historical spending patterns. 6 See Official Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21 for more information: http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file opposed to brick and mortar stores) and fewer services. The forecast assumes that consumers partially return to historical spend- ing patterns in the short term, but online sales continue to increase over time. For motor SUT, the response to the impact

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Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf

Census population estimates, vintage 2020, which do not incorporate the 2020 Decennial Census. As a result, there was an unusual pattern from 2019 to 2020. The analysis smooths the population trends from 2010 through 2019 and recreated historical migration trends by net inflow of 7,700 per annum. Net migration is lower moving forward because the forecast is based on migration patterns from 2016 to 2019, which were notably lower than 2010 to 2015. 2010-20 2020-25 2025-30 Start of

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

tax liability (29,713 firms) but only 3.0 to 4.0 percent of total tax liability. These results reflect patterns at the federal level that also show a relatively small number of large firms remit most tax revenues in any the state. If a payroll-only factor is used instead of sales, the tabulations for tax year 2012 reveal similar patterns as the sales-only apportionment factor for tax year 2013: a relatively small number of firms with more than $5

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index.cfm

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) Council 13. ... (Full Report) County Income Patterns 2018-2021 Economics and Other August 24, 2023 This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and of Environmental Protection to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. ... (Full Report) County Income Patterns Economics and Other August 16, 2022 This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

program was not associated with significant improvement on standardized tests scores. ▪ The lack of change over time followed the same pattern seen in public school students in Alabama and is likely not attributable to participation in the scholarship program. Arizona (2021

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TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf

generation data suggest that coal refuse burned increased to 7.0 million tons. Megawatt hours (MWh) generated followed the same pattern. The ratio of MWh generated to tons of coal burned reflects the general heat content of coal refuse. That ratio

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TC_2022_Brewers.pdf

The analysis projects that expan- sion will continue in the near term due to consumer preferences and shifts in purchase patterns that oc- curred during the COVID-19 pandemic. 7 NAIC 312120 includes “establishments primarily engaged in brewing beer, ale, malt

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey. The computation is based on consumer spending patterns, and the actual percentage could be different than 30 percent. Appendix | Page 25 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey. The computation is based on consumer spending patterns, and the actual percentage could be different than 30 percent. Appendix | Page 25 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

economic multipliers. The model produces static impact estimates because various technical parameters (e.g., relative price levels, migration patterns) are assumed constant. 15 Labor represents about 21 percent of total broadband expenditures. “The Economic Impact of Rural Broadband,” Hudson Institute (April

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

restaurants, pubs, grocery stores and dry cleaners. In the final stage, new office space may be created. This pattern has been referred to as cluster- ing: a single successful conversion or rehabilitation of a vacant structure often attracts other developers to

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

the tax credit. Dynamic effects allow certain technical parameters to change (e.g., the price of inputs, migration patterns) in response to 18 The analysis assumes that $65 million is spent on tax credits. Alternatively, if the state used those monies

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

fixed-wing aircraft sales, parts and MRO services. A comparison of employment trends does not reveal any notable pattern in policy change states versus other states. The wholesale and retail sectors are much smaller across all states. Nationally, employment in those

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

age and retired.  Renters: working age and retired.  Uses median characteristics from U.S. Census (income) and spending patterns from U.S. Dept. of Labor (by age and income).  Compare taxes under current law and the proposal. 1

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Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf

Tobacco Settlement Fund. Federal/National Factors Pose Greatest Risk November Election Uncertainty harms economic growth Business investment may enter holding pattern until outcome known Federal Budget Powell: Fiscal policy is unsustainable (Oct 2023) $509 billion deficit 1 st quarter of FFY

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

projected flat ▪ 21-22 forecast: slight decline due to lack of stimulus, relative inflation levels, and changes to consumer purchase patterns Motor vehicle sales tax up +23% in CY 2021 ▪ Nearly all is price gains | used cars up +29% | new cars

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Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf

decline in miscellaneous revenue. For FY 2023-24, Lottery ticket sales are expected to revert to growth rates near historical patterns. High- lights include:  Instant Ticket sales, which include Fast Play, are projected to increase 3.0% as they remain

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

to (1) the absence of the non- recurring transfers received in FY15-16 and (2) a return to prior collection patterns for escheats as the temporary effects of the 2014 statutory changes diminish. Liquor Code Amendments – The estimate includes $106 million

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

Associated taxes can be paid off ratably over three years  Unknown how much withdrawn under program Shifting consumer spending patterns  Less out of state travel | gasoline consumption down ~10%  Home improvement, cars, appliances and computers all taxable October

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

end of the quarter. For 2020 Q4, all affected workers are rehired by the end of the quarter. The same pattern holds for Scenario 2, but business closures last ten weeks instead of six weeks.  Net profits fall by 10

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

and use tax (SUT) revenues ($10 million) from the general transfer of income to lower-wage workers. Spending patterns for lower-wage workers suggest that a slightly higher share of any additional income could be spent on products subject to state

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf

three years due to the highly unusual economic conditions generated by the pandemic, unprecedented federal stimulus and subsequent recovery, the pattern of forecast errors from past budget cycles does not suggest an inherent bias in General Fund revenue estimates. Revenue Estimate

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

for the JUA transfer). Projections should represent an unbiased forecast that have an equal chance of under or overprediction. The pattern of forecast errors from the past nine budget cycles does not suggest an inherent bias in General Fund revenue estimates

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf

JUA transfer). Projections should represent an unbiased forecast that have an equal chance of under or overprediction. The pattern of forecast errors from the past eight budget cycles does not suggest an inherent bias in General Fund revenue estimates. Revenue Estimate

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf

JUA transfer). Projections should represent an unbiased forecast that have an equal chance of under or overprediction. The pattern of forecast errors from the past seven budget cycles does not suggest an inherent bias in General Fund revenue estimates. Revenue Estimate

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Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf

decline in miscellaneous revenue. For FY 2023-24, Lottery ticket sales are expected to revert to growth rates near historical patterns. High- lights include:  Instant Ticket sales, which include Fast Play, are projected to increase 3.4% as they remain

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Revenue Trends Report - January 2013.pdf

to the $119 million (16.9%) increase in withholding deposits. The resulting shift of revenue compared to last year’s pattern will weaken reported revenue growth in February. o Strong quarterly estimated payments resulted in an increase of $54 million (15

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

Tax Receipts for the tax are concentrated in March. It has a high sensitivity to industry growth rates and payment patterns, changes to which could result in substantial swings in revenue. Upside Downside • Estimated payment percentages in the electric sector have

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RB_2023_12_Gasoline_Consumption_Remains_Subdued.pdf

consumption (not shown) also declined significantly; however, consumption has recovered and now surpasses 2019. The second figure displays quarterly consumption patterns and average retail gasoline prices. For 2022 Q2, the average retail price surpassed $4.50 per gallon, the highest average

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

reveal divergent trends for the northern and northwestern regions of the state compared to the southeast and central. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2016 to 2019, nearly

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RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf

and western regions of the state generally recorded contractions, the south central and eastern regions recorded moderate gains. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2016 to 2018, all

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RB-2017-5.pdf

states (e.g., Pennsylvania and Vermont) compared to energy-producing and western states (e.g., Texas and Utah). Domestic migration patterns cause much of this trend as residents depart northeastern states and move to western and southern states for reasons related

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RB-2015-04.pdf

percent of hourly‐ paid workers earn a wage at or below the federal minimum (excludes tips and other compensation). The pattern for U.S. workers is similar, but the share of hourly‐paid workers who earn the federal minimum wage or

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

northern and western regions of the state generally recorded contractions, the southern and southeast regions recorded moderate gains. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2015 to 2017, nearly

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QRR_2013Q4.pdf

than offset weakness in quarterly estimated payments. For the fiscal year, revenues were $33 million above estimate. The pattern of weak estimated payments and strong final payments also is evident in the fiscal year-to-date deposits. Corporate Net Income Tax

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort will (1) restrain tax revenues due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other expenditures associated with the long-term care of the

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

Subtle, yet crucial impact.  Hard to see in a single year.  Determines work force, income sources and spending patterns. PA is now in middle of a retirement wave.  First Boomers turned 65 in 2012.  Will peak in

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

share of standardized tests scored at proficient or above compared to districts with poorer students represented by red dots. This pattern is illustrated by the cluster of blue dots in the upper two quadrants and the cluster of red dots in

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

of lack of resources. Households with very low food security have reported reduced food intake and disrupted eating patterns due to inadequate resources for food. Maternal and Child Health | Page 31 Activity 9: Maternal and Child Health In order to protect

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

of lack of resources. Households with very low food security have reported reduced food intake and disrupted eating patterns due to inadequate resources for food. SNAP Eligibility and Authorize Benefits | Page 38 - This page intentionally left blank. - Employment Supports | Page 39

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

detention that motivated states to consider alternatives such as probation, day treatment and other community-based models. The pattern follows an overall downward trend in crime rates nationally since the mid-to-late 1990’s. County Placements as a Percent of

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

output per hour) surged in 2020  More automation | release less productive employees | working more Dramatic shift in consumer spending patterns  Online sales tax collections double | shift to larger firms with online presence  Investment in the home: gyms, meal

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

for tax year 2017 that are generally remitted in March, April and May, which is consistent with revenue patterns at both the state and federal levels. The FY 2018-19 forecast projects strong growth (8.5 percent) for CNIT revenues. Three

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NewsStand_2019_May.pdf

were 4.8% (annual) and 3.2% (Q1), 7.9% (Q2), 5.1% (Q3) and 4.2% (Q4). Similar to patterns for the U.S., the state data show a deceleration of economic growth after the second quarter. Data for 2019

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Newsstand_2019_April.pdf

not seasonally adjusted) compared to the same quarter in the prior year. That latest data point is consistent with the pattern of net jobs creation during calendar year 2018: 69,100 (2018 Q1), 68,100 (2018 Q2), 65,000 (2018 Q3

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MTR-2018-06.pdf

5.2 percent), while motor vehicle revenues were below estimate (-3.8 percent). Fiscal year SUT collections followed the same pattern, with non-motor exceeding estimate by $152 million and motor vehicle falling short by $11 million. June personal income tax

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

1.2% 1.2% 4.8% Dollar amounts are in millions. PENNSYLVANIA HOME SALES STRONG Pennsylvania home sales continued a pattern of strong growth in 2016. The Pennsylvania Association of Realtors (PAR) releases quarterly reports on home sales and prices in

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

show an increased risk of recession, the latest state indicators do not yet provide strong evidence of that outcome. This pattern is consistent with Pennsylvania’s slower growth economy that exhibits more moderate swings compared to the U.S. Additional data

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MTR-2015-09.pdf

Neɑ IRS SɎaɎe MigɌaɎiɉɈ DaɎa ReɆeaɍed The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recently released new data that capture interstate migration patterns for calendar years 2012 and 2013. The data are based on the mailing addresses reported on tax returns. For Pennsylvania

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

productivity (output per hour) surged in 2020  Automation | release less productive employees | working more Dramatic shift in consumer spending patterns  Online sales tax collections double | shift to larger firms with online presence  For example: retail clothing store employment

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

the number of additional deaths of despair due to the COVID-19 Recession based on three economic recovery forecasts (same pattern as the Great Recession, twice as fast or four times as fast). The analysis finds for the United States, the

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

to file a tax return if they fall below income thresholds. Hence, it is possible that the data miss migration patterns of low-income seniors. Third, the data include tabulations by income group and total income of migrants. However, if the

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mid-year-FY16-17-press-release.pdf

seven months of the current fiscal year.” Knittel said. “For next year, revenues are projected to follow a low-growth pattern. Revenue increases from modest economic growth largely are offset by the absence of one- time measures used to boost collections

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

1%).  About $130 million of the FYTD overage is due to strong final payments for TY 2013. Unusual payment pattern.  Adding monies to an old tax year (2013) may not affect the estimate for the current tax year (2014

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MER-2014-07.pdf

that can be spent by the recipient. For cash trans‐ fers such as Social Security and disability payments, recipients’ spending patterns are likely quite differ‐ ent than a typical wage earner. It is likely that a larger share of that income

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Labor_Market_Update_October_2021.pdf

adjusted data (retail and wholesale trade, leisure and hospitality), and for those sectors, a contraction is normal due to seasonal patterns as younger or part-time workers return to school. However, the September contraction was smaller-than-normal and offsets some

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Labor_Market_Update_June_23_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania Job Gains Remain in Holding Pattern This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and the pool of potential workers

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

for tax year 2017 that are generally remitted in March, April and May, which is consistent with revenue patterns at both the state and federal levels. The FY 2018-19 forecast projects strong growth (9.2 percent) for CNIT revenues. Three

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

final payments in March to May. PIT Non-Withholding  Revenues were $125 million over forecast through January. Different payment patterns due to federal tax reform make it difficult to gauge the underlying trends that will drive final tax liability. JUA

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

 2016: +0.0% | 2017: +0.0% | 2018 +0.1%  Birth rates continue to decline Some change in migration patterns  International in-migration declines | So does domestic out-migration  Majority of in-migrants from border states Continued dramatic

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

Growth Philadelphia CPI-U 2 General Fund Revenues A massive infusion of federal funds, inflation and changes in consumer purchase patterns caused a surge in General Fund tax revenues in FY 2021-22 relative to (1) FY 2018-19 (latest pre-

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

worth +$5.1 billion Revenues / GDP measures the revenue “capacity” of economy profits and stock market federal stimulus and spending patterns Baseline Forecast: Big 3 Tax Revenues November 15, 2022 14 Corp Net Income +1.7% avg ann growth from base

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

2020-21.  Escheats collections for FY 2019-20 appear to have rebounded and returned to normal collection patterns. This trend is expected to continue over the forecast horizon.  All estimates assume that Enhanced Revenue Collection Account (ERCA) funding is

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

the 65+ cohort (14.7 percent through 2020) will (1) restrain tax revenues due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other expenditures associated with the long-term care of the

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

cohort will (1) restrain the growth of tax revenues (personal income and sales) due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase state expenditures associated with the long-term care of the elderly. Act

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_Presentation_August_2020.pdf

negative hit | new data are needed to assess Many lower wage jobs likely permanently lost  Increased automation | shifting spending patterns | less travel/tourism  Acceleration of on-line purchases Key dates to watch  August 21: July jobs report for

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

employed, but excludes S corporations. Wages and Salaries for 2020 Q4 is an estimate by IFO based on adjusted withholding patterns. ▪ Despite finishing CY 2020 with 460,000 fewer payroll jobs (-7.5%), wage growth is now positive. ▪ The very strong

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

Many technical and structural factors support a scenario where lost jobs are not recovered including: new consumer spending patterns (e.g., more in-home dining), more online shopping, less travel, greater automation, more teleworking and reduced production capacity due to the

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017 (September 2019) Natural Gas Production Report, 2019 Q3 (December 2019) Special Reports County Income Patterns (August 2019) Senior Spending and Tax Revenues (September 2019) Minimum Wage Increase Estimates (October 2019) Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program (October

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Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdf

to a net inflow of 77,000. Net migration is lower moving forward because the forecast is based on migration patterns from 2018 to 2022, which were notably lower than 2015 to 2020. For 2025 to 2030, net migration is projected

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

migration by age. Due to COVID-19 and various other short-term factors, the forecast assumes a long-term migration pattern based on the differ- ential between the 2010 and 2020 Decennial Census less natural growth. A 2020 net domestic migration

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

productivity (output per hour) surged in 2020  Automation | release less productive employees | working more Dramatic shift in consumer spending patterns  Online sales tax collections double | shift to larger firms with online presence  For example: retail clothing store employment

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

now removed, we expect annual personal income tax payments in the spring of 2014 to return to a more normal pattern. Therefore, our estimate anticipates a 3 percent reduction in annual payments received during the second half of the fiscal year

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2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf

is personal income. Federal/National Factors Pose Greatest Risk November Election Uncertainty harms economic growth Business investment may enter holding pattern until outcome known Federal Budget Powell: Fiscal policy is unsustainable (Oct 2023) $509 billion deficit 1 st quarter of FFY

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Federal Stimulus - Quarterly Pattern January 31, 2022 3 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 Expanded UC

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